Podcasts about interest rates

P.M. Edition for Sept. 3. WSJ reporter Robbie Whelan discusses how with its latest deal for AI platform Hugging Face, chip giant Nvidia is promoting open-weight AI models that compete with OpenAI and Anthropic. Plus, we're still two years away from the next presidential election, but some Republican hopefuls are already testing the waters. We hear from Journal White House correspondent Natalie Andrews about who may have President Trump's backing and how Senator Ted Cruz is going over with voters in Iowa. And feminist icon Gloria Steinem dies at age 92. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Markets are digesting shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, stubbornly high interest rates, and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran. Doug and Greg discuss why government debt, not 5% interest rates, may be the bigger concern, how higher yields are changing the bond market, and why geopolitical tensions haven't derailed stocks. Plus, they look at what prediction markets are saying about the upcoming midterm elections, explain why politics shouldn't dictate your long-term investment strategy, and the good news behind interest rates. Key Takeaways 00:02 — The markets react to the Fed 03:00 — Government spending & the cost of debt 05:05 — Are 5% interest rates really that high? 08:10 — Households are in better shape than governments 09:30 — Iran's impact on rates, oil, & inflation 15:43 — What prediction markets say about the midterms 19:26 — Why politics shouldn't change your portfolio 20:36 — The good news about 5% bond yields View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

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Plus: Oil continues to move higher. And cybersecurity stocks fall after Palo Alto Networks posts quarterly loss. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Discover four smart money moves for September and learn where to find some of today's best high-yield savings account rates. Art also answers a listener's question about whether it is wiser to buy an existing home or build a new one.Resources:8 Money MilestonesAsk a Money Question!

Interest rate rises aren't popular with most borrowers, but it's particularly tough if you're paying off a loan that's larger than your home is worth. Prices have been flat since their fall from their COVID peak in most parts of the country, which has left some first-home buyers in a tricky spot. Money correspondent Susan Edmunds spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

Wall Street is starting to price in a 25bps interest rate hike for September, though it may come down to what next week's CPI print shows, says Zachary Hill. He adds that it won't matter long-term, so long as it's not the start of a hike cycle. Zachary warns that a pullback is likely in equities after Labor Day but makes the case that he would be a buyer if the economy doesn't deteriorate. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X –   / schwabnetwork  Follow us on Facebook –   / schwabnetwork  Follow us on LinkedIn -   / schwab-network   About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Senior Markets Analysis Writer Paul R. La Monica speak with Blake Gwinn, head of US Rates Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mikal Aune and James Derrick unpack the mechanics behind oil's predictive value for inflation and interest rates. They compare today's situation with 2008, noting that while gas and crude would need to rise substantially to match that crisis in real terms, structural differences matter: the U.S. now produces roughly 30% of global oil versus 8% in 2008. That shift means more domestic corporate earnings from energy firms, cushioning some effects and benefiting diversified portfolios. Still, sustained high oil prices increase vulnerability to a recession by draining consumer excess and constraining the Fed's policy, potentially keeping mortgage and auto rates elevated for longer.

Oil prices rose, stocks fell and bond yields spiked after the US launched fresh attacks on Iranian targets. Japan's 10-year bond yield hit 3 percent for the first time since 1996. The deepening global selloff comes amid fears over rising inflation and concern over mounting government debt, which in the US has risen above $40 trillion. Meanwhile, in the single-currency eurozone, inflation rose to the highest level in three years in August, driven by higher energy prices. 

Keith explores how real estate strategies have shifted from the 1980s to today and explains why investors need to adapt deal structures to changing interest rates, lending conditions, and market cycles.  He highlights current opportunities in new construction and builder rate buydowns, along with the long-term benefits of fixed-rate debt.  Keith is joined by economic futurist and author Richard Vague, who challenges conventional beliefs about inflation and interest rates and explains how government intervention, war, and supply constraints shape asset prices and leverage decisions. Together, they provide a big-picture framework for understanding how today's macro environment affects real estate investing decisions. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/621 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Learn how dramatically real estate has changed from the 1980s through the late 2020s. We'll be sure that your approach is changing with it. Then a great guest and I discuss how war and future calamities will affect mortgage rates, inflation, and your real estate today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Home Buyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth. Again, that September 30th. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:35   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:51   Welcome to GRE from Cambridge, England, to Cambridge, Massachusetts, and across 188 world nations. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're inside Get Rich Education. You could be doing anything with your time. I'm grateful that you choose to listen to me every week. You know, real estate investors sometimes say, "Ah, there aren't any deals anymore. What they usually mean is the deal structure that they learned five years ago stopped working. There are always opportunities in real estate, but your approach changes with interest rates, lending standards, inventory, construction, government policy, and just the overall economic cycle. The best investors don't wait for yesterday's market to return. That's like someone still hoping for Blockbuster Video Store to reopen. They identify what today's market is offering instead. Just consider this historic retrospective on real estate investing from the Reagan administration to today, in 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked above 18.6%. I mean, just imagine proudly telling your friends that you locked in at 17% before rates went higher. That mortgage needed its own defibrillator. By 1984, rates were still near 16%. The strategy then, the approach, was for a buyer to assume the existing owner's lower rate mortgage that they locked in a few years earlier, perhaps in the late 70s, that's how you got a good deal, assuming that existing owners lower-rate mortgage. You can't do that so easily today.   Keith Weinhold  3:50   By the late 80s and early 90s, the opportunity shifted from assuming attractive debt to buying distressed properties. The S and L crisis was upon us. Savings and loan failed lenders found themselves holding piles of distressed real estate, so investors bought foreclosures and REOs at discounts. They improved neglected buildings and then they repositioned them for income. You probably know that REO stands for real estate owned on a bank's balance sheet. All REO means is bank-owned property, but that's what you did. You found those, and then you scooped up a deal that way. As the 1990s progressed, interest rates declined, and loans also became really easy to obtain. We were tilting into the loosey-goosey easy lending environment. In the 90s, it was popular to buy an undervalued property, renovate it, raise the rent, and refinance it based on the improved value. That process later got a buzzy acronym and became known as the Burr strategy: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. By 2005, financing got more creative. This is when I was a new real estate investor. I remember obtaining what were known as 8015 five combo loans. This meant an 80% first mortgage, 15% second mortgage, and 5% down payment. You remember those? If you've been around for a while, you do. And see, this way you could avoid paying PMI, and you could control property with an astounding 20 to one leverage ratio due to that 5% down payment, but soon enough lending just got absolutely too creative and easy. The quiet lending party turned into a boisterous kegger, delivering the 2008 financial. crisis, and pretty soon I could no longer get any loans. From 2009 through the early 2010s, you could buy foreclosures and short sales at enormous discounts if you could find the loan.   Keith Weinhold  6:20   Financing was tough, but prices were super low. It might have even made sense to pay cash at that time. Fear was everywhere right after the global financial crisis. I mean, it really took courage to act when others were hiding under the bed. By 2020 and 2021, the opportunity changed from cheap property to cheap money. Mortgage rates dropped below an absurd 3% as a result of the COVID pandemic. You could lock up extraordinarily cheap debt for less than the inflation rate, and then let inflation nibble away at it like Pac-Man. Of course, a lot of us are still benefiting from that today, but that opportunity is long gone now. But it doesn't mean that deals are gone today. Where's the opportunity? One of the best ones is often found in new construction, large build. have got to keep moving their inventory as they build these homes because they have got to keep their crews busy. An unsold house for a builder-I mean-that produces as much income as an unplugged Bitcoin miner. Rather than make conspicuous price reductions, builders use their financial muscle to buy down mortgage rates for you, often in the 5% range or even lower.   Keith Weinhold  7:52   Builders might also offer you closing cost assistance, upgraded finishes, or other incentives that a single resale seller just can't match. So from the Reagan administration to today, over 45 years, the winning strategy just keeps morphing. It started out back then as assume the loan, over to buy distress, then to renovate and refi, then it was a creative financing wave, and then cheap debt, and today take the builders buy down. That's where we are. The mistake is deciding in advance what a deal is supposed to look like. The best deal structure changes, and of course, it's going to change again. The investor who keeps fighting the last war is always going to conclude that the opportunity has disappeared, but it hasn't. It's just changed clothing. Still, though, today's new purchases now-they're not as good as the deals that they were five years ago, but the best investors keep investing. They keep adding to their portfolio. It's what they've always done. Absolutely zero winning investors that are successful over time look back and say things like, "I didn't add anything to my portfolio during that 10-year span for this or that reason, the market changes, and you've got to adapt with it. That's a way to think about it. Take solace in knowing a few things. Deal structure changes over time are inevitable. And larger picture, you are investing in a product that is sustainable residential real estate in the form of long-term rentals. These entry-level properties are a scarce asset that people are going to continue to need. I mean, that's what we do here. Just compare. To the fads that we avoid around here, like NFTs, metaverse real estate, which we discussed on the show a few years ago, but said is highly dangerous, eye buying, value add apartment syndications, SPACs, or how about ICO funded altcoins? We don't chase the latest hot thing here at GRE. It is about what's sustainable, necessary, and cannot be easily disrupted by AI, and that's one reason that Get Rich Education is still standing strong after 52 episodes every year for almost 12 years now. Shortly, we're going to bring in a rather esteemed guest today on the future direction of interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, he believes that raising interest rates does not cool inflation, and that's contrary to popular belief. I'm going to press him on this and ask why, but first, our new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He's only been on the job a few months now.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   He is gaining a reputation for not forecasting what they're going to do ahead of time, like his predecessor had. I guess I tend to like his disposition and the way that he communicates, I sense some pragmatism with Warsh, but gosh, it often seems that a new Fed chair gets off to a well liked start, and then they do something that lots of people criticize. Like, remember in 2004, late Fed Chair Alan Greenspan suggested more borrowers could benefit from adjustable rate mortgages shortly before rates rose and ARM resets became financial landmines. In 2007, Ben Bernanke said that subprime mortgage problems were likely to be contained. Oh, right after that, they helped trigger the global financial crisis, and more recently, the Jerome Powell gaffe, which I'll mention in the interview shortly. Here's what current Fed Chair Warsh says about inflation:   Kevin Warsh  12:14   For some households, businesses, and market professionals, five years of high inflation have left a mistaken impression, that's hard to shake, that the Fed's implicit inflation target was somehow above 2% Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch. There's only a target, and it's 2%   Keith Weinhold  12:42   It's obvious that he is serious about getting inflation back down to 2% That tends to point toward interest rate increases. Let's discuss that and more with this week's brilliant guest. This week's guest is an economic futurist keynote speaker, and he's quite a popular author. He is chair of the board of the Public School Employees Retirement System. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. Previously, the Pennsylvania governor appointed him as the secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, he's also the founder and president of several various organizations today, and he serves on several boards, including at the University of Pennsylvania and the School District of Philadelphia. I mean, I hardly know how he has time to do it all, but he made time for us today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.   Richard Vague  13:45   It's such an honor to be with you. I certainly enjoyed our last session, and it's really wonderful to be back.   Keith Weinhold  13:51   Well, and so much has changed since you were last here, Richard. First, why don't we pull back and talk to us about the general state of the national economy today, as you see it.   Richard Vague  14:04   ou know the economy was rocking along okay, and you know since you guys are such experts in real estate, I'll tell you one of the most important statistics, in my opinion, is the number of unsold homes, and by all rights, that number should be about 2 million homes. It's only about a million and a half. So there's a deficiency in our housing stock in the United States, which is, yeah, I think good news for the housing industry. It's always good to have a reason to have to grow. You may recall that in 2007, that had gotten up to four millinomes, which was a catastrophe, as we all know. So, it's the economic statistic I looked at first and most closely, and that was, you know, an okay number, and a lot of the things were going along. You know, not fabulous, but not terrible. Things were kind of moving. And all of a sudden now we have the war in Iran, and that's creating all sorts of problems for us, which you know I think you guys are concerned about. So I generally think the economy's been good, but there's a lot of dark clouds on the horizon.   Keith Weinhold  15:15   You know, Richard, I was recently sharing something remarkable with our audience. To your point, just since 2020, consider all the calamities that we've had: COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, tariffs, and the Iran War. Just since 2020, what's the result of all that? Both stocks and residential real estate are near all time highs.   Richard Vague  15:42   Yeah, well, you know, one of the things that's true is that this is something I go to in great detail in my book Paradox. But the more debt there is, the higher asset prices go.   Keith Weinhold  15:53   Yeah.   Richard Vague  15:54   You know, in the case of housing, that broadly helps middle America. In the case of the stock market, the top 10% of the country owns 87% of the stocks, so that tends to go to the wealthiest instead of to the broad population. But yeah, those two things are at highs.   Keith Weinhold  16:12   You're touching on your well-received 2023 book, The Paradox of Debt, and you know, Richard, amidst all these calamities and all this potentially unprecedented level of government intervention that we've had-you know-it makes one wonder during the next crisis, which is inevitably going to happen, will the government just step in and provide relief again? And how would that look?   Richard Vague  16:38   You know, I think that's one lesson that government has learned indelibly. Way back in 1929, in the couple of years that followed, the government did not step in, and we saw what happened. And I think there's a generation of economists that understand the role of government in a calamity, and you know it's pretty simple. You know the government comes in and crops up financial institutions as they did in 2008, simply by providing the liquidity or buying the bad assets, or the government steps in with relief checks as they did in such a massive way in 2020. But the government has learned that at least to some degree, it needs to intervene. I can't imagine that ever not being true.   Keith Weinhold  17:26   Goshmright when you think about 2020s stimulus and how emergency lending facilities were set up, you had the payment protection program, stimulus checks, mortgage loan forbearance. It's just like this government won't let the asset holders fail.   Richard Vague  17:46   Well, yeah, you know, there's failure, and then there's something that's hurtful but not quite failure. You know, I can imagine that the government will be able to prevent, in some circumstances, certain asset prices going down some amount, it's actually fairly commonplace for stocks to go down 10 or 20% I can see real estate prices going down as they have in the commercial office space. Yeah, but yes, the government will step in when those things become extreme to prevent a true calamity.   Keith Weinhold  18:19   Of course, one consequence of the interventionism is elevated inflation. I know how you've talked before about how the level of inflation is higher than most people think. For example, you'll see today's CPI numbers in the mid threes. Talk to us some more about why inflation is higher than most people think.   Richard Vague  18:41   Well, I have studied inflation, you know, fairly diligently, and inflation really relates to the constriction of supply. And if you look over the 250-year history of the United States, we haven't had that many episodes of bad inflation, and they've always related to a constriction of supply. Most of them have occurred during a war when, for obvious reasons, you know, supplies are constricted. The big 1970s episode of inflation was because OPEC, which had so much more power back in those days, acted to you know punish the United States by constricting supplies, and the price of a barrel of oil went from $4 to $40 a barrel. Yeah, between 73 and 79. COVID was another instance where inflation related to constriction of supply. That was you know people couldn't go to the meat factory to cut meat. People couldn't go to the factories to build things, so all of a sudden our supplies were decimated, and we had a short burst of very painful inflation. Well, now we've got the straight of four moves, and that is impacting the price of oil. I think it's going to impact the price of oil more going forward because. Because we've been able to rely on reserves, both the U.S. has been able to rely on reserves, and China has been able to rely on even greater reserves. And you know we haven't seen the brunt of that, but unless something's resolved pretty quickly, I think in the fall and winter we're going to see even more problematic prices there. But we know agricultural prices and even the flow of commodities like wheat are constricted by the constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and, frankly, other waterways as well. Now, one of the things the numbers that you see reported tend to underreport inflation because it looks at a year-over-year number and doesn't really capture it if it's moved up more sharply in the last month or two. So we look at it on a month-by-month. We you know we break it down about as to as many parts as you can break it down into. But PPI, which is kind of a leading indicator on the eventual CPI PPI's producer price index, it was 4.7% this last month. That would suggest to you that things which are in the mid threes now, which is more higher than we want, you know, probably trending over. Maybe not next month, but you know, over the next three to six months, I'm not going to be surprised if the number's more in the four to five range. So, yeah, I think inflation's being somewhat underreported at the moment.    Keith Weinhold  21:29   The PPI being that harbinger of consumer prices, often four to six months down the road. And Richard, the last time you were here, when it comes to checking and controlling inflation, you said something so interesting. You said that higher rates, which is typically the response in order to try to quell inflation, higher rates actually do not lower inflation, and you did not get a chance to expand on that because we ran out of time. Tell us more about why higher rates do not reduce inflation.   Richard Vague  22:05   Well, I'm going to answer that a couple of ways. One of them is higher rates don't open the Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:12   Right.   Richard Vague  22:13   You can put rates as high as you want, and it's not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.    Keith Weinhold  22:16   Chairman Warsch doesn't open the Strait. Yes, he doesn't get oil produce nothing.   Richard Vague  22:20   Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:21   Yeah.   Richard Vague  22:21   And so we can do all we want to on raids, which is a very blunt instrument, and it's not going to address the supply constraints that are geopolitical and war related. So, if you want to curb inflation right now, there's two things to do. One of them's you know end the war with Iran, and the other is to kind of back off a lot of these tariffs that have become so problematic. I think there's a place for tariffs. I think there's certain things China's doing that you know a call for an appropriate level of tariffs. I'm not sure we should be big tariffs on Canada and some of these other places, which have the effect of increasing the cost of our farm equipment and cars and other things like that. So, if you really want to address inflation and address the things that truly underlie inflation, and if the second way I'd answer this is to say, go look at the debt, track the data from you know 1945 or 50. You know, we really look at the post World War II period as the place we really learn things from, and over that period, increased government spending has been accompanied by reduced interest rates and reduced inflation. So, reduced interest rates and reduced inflation have gone hand in hand, and rising interest rates and rising inflation have gone hand in hand, and it's a really easy thing to look at. We've got the data on our site, but there's only been three periods where you've had big shifts in government spending and rates. They're pretty easy to look at, and there's actually empirically an inverse relationship between rising interest rates and it's the opposite of what economists tell you.   Keith Weinhold  24:09   I think, in general, economists tell us that when inflation is high, you raise interest rates because consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and those higher rates therefore incentivize people to be savers because they're getting paid a higher yield, keeping those dollars out of the economy, and they're less incentivized to be borrowers and expand the economy that way. I think in general that's why economists say that higher interest rates reduce inflation. Do you agree with that?   Speaker 2  24:40   Well, no, I don't, and the reason I don't is because when you look at the data, that doesn't happen. These are easy things to check, and what I would say to you is that rising interest rates increase costs, and you guys know that better than anybody in the world.   Keith Weinhold  24:56   With mortgages. Yeah.   Richard Vague  24:58   What do rising interest rates do to? Cost of your mortgage.   Keith Weinhold  25:02   Everything increased substantially.    Richard Vague  25:03   It has system prices at the grocery store. Well, the grocery stores have to pay our interest for their inventory. So the more intuitive and obvious thing is that rising interest rates increase prices. And by the way, if you and I were to go look at the data right now, which I look at almost daily, that we would see periods of rising interest rates correlate to periods of rising increased costs.   Keith Weinhold  25:29   Well, I'm glad you look at history because I often say here at Get Rich Education, if you want to know what's going to happen in the future, it's easy to have a hunch, but it's more important to look at history. Can you talk to us some more about how, over the long term, higher interest rates don't suppress inflation? If that's what you're saying,   Richard Vague  25:47   yeah. The greatest rise in inflation, you know, in my lifetime was the late 1970s.   Keith Weinhold  25:55   Yeah,   Richard Vague  25:56   and for the entire time that interest rates were going up, prices and inflation were going up, and it wasn't until interest rates started coming down that inflation started coming down. So we could look at any number of periods, and if you're going to argue the opposite, you need to go find me some data.   Keith Weinhold  26:15   Okay. Well, speaking in more modern times, in the last wave of inflation that we had, the CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022. This is the whole famous Jerome Powell: inflation is only transitory. Oh shoot, no, it's not. I better hike rates. He did, and then inflation came down. Is it as simple as that cause in effect, or did something else make inflation come down post COVID.   Richard Vague  26:42   Inflation came down, and it came all the way down in July of 2022. It didn't come down gradually over six, 912, 18 months. You go look at the length monthly inflation. Inflation came all the way down in July of 2022, and stay has stayed down all the intervening period until very recently with the Iran War. July of 2022 was before there was a dramatic increase in interest rates.   Keith Weinhold  27:18   Right,   Speaker 1  27:19   that's simple.   Keith Weinhold  27:21   What caused inflation to come down? Then is it because supply began to arrive on the market again?   Richard Vague  27:27   People went back to work, started building things again.   Keith Weinhold  27:30   Producing.   Richard Vague  27:32   And the problem was folks had not been able to go to the factories and make things, and so we had a you know global supply deficit. Well, the nice thing about that is that you know money incends people to scramble back to work, make things again, and you know once they start doing that, and the Fed actually produces something they call the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. You can get it on the Fed site. If you look at it, it's supposed to be kind of at zero, and anytime supply chains are disrupted, it shoots up. And any you know, any time the opposite happens, you know there's overcapacity. It goes down, and you can see exactly when supply chains repair is happening. So go look at the. It's called the GSCPI. It's on the Fed side. You'll see that global supply chains had largely started to be dramatically repaired in the spring and summer of 2022, and naturally, supply and demand works. All of a sudden, supply starts showing up, and prices go to hell.   Keith Weinhold  28:39   We're talking with economic futurist author and Pennsylvania's governor-appointed former secretary of banking and securities Richard Vague, more when we come back on the affliction of inflation, what this means for real estate investors, and more. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine. You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056. They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Caeli Ridge. While it's on your mind, start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Keith Weinhold  29:29   Let me ask you something: If you've worked hard to build wealth, is your money positioned to actually support your goals? A lot of accredited investors leave capital sitting in cash because it feels safe, but inflation and missed income opportunities can quietly erode its value. Freedom Family Investments offers freedom notes for investors seeking structured income backed by real estate. It's a straightforward approach built on real assets, not speculation. In full disclosure, I'm an investor myself. What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed. But with a track record of consistent, on-time investor payouts, they built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call or text family to 66866. That's family to 66866.    Dolph Derues  30:31   This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Derues. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:45   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with Richard Vague. Richard is the founder and president of so many organizations today. He's the author of several popular economic books. He chairs the board of the Public School employees retirement system. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. He's in a lot of places at once, seemingly. Richard, we're talking about inflation before the break. What is the right inflation rate?   Richard Vague  31:16   Well, like I said, inflation. If you look at the entire 250-year span of the United States has it been an affliction that has affected us that often? It is political kryptonite. So when it does happen, it steers our consciousness, and it you know certainly affects your industry. But you know, if we look historically, the Fed targets 2% It's not a bad thing to target. We never really have achieved that level for any length of period. I think if you look at it over the past several decades and take out the high inflation periods, it probably has averaged closer to three. So I don't think two to 3% is an inappropriate level, and I kind of suspect it'll be a level that typifies our future once we get past, if and when we get past this more.   Keith Weinhold  32:09   Yes, not long ago, I was looking at the history of the CPI or the CPI's equivalent, and over the last 100 years, the rate is about 3.2% and we haven't hit that government-mandated 2% target, which is stated right on the Fed's website. We haven't hit that for any month in about five years now, and this asset inflation, as we know, this disproportionately enriches existing asset owners, and it widens this inequality. Something that's more recently been known as the K-shaped economy, can you talk to us some more about this exacerbating wealth inequality?   Richard Vague  32:48   Well, you hit the nail on the head. Something on the order of 80% of all the net wealth held by Americans is in the form of two things: stock and real estate. If you want to talk about wealth, it's those two things, and those two things, probably 60 or 70% of all of those in the U.S. are held by the top 10% I think it's a single-digit number of those that are held by the bottom 50% So you know, if inflation and debt growth push asset prices up over time. It is a mathematical inevitability that the rich get richer faster than those in the middle and at the bottom, and that simply means inequality will increase through time. I believe that's structural. Unless you address that in very some very specific way it will continue.   Keith Weinhold  33:43   Inflation affects real estate investors more than it does the average person because we borrow these big pools of money often at 75 to 80% loan to value, and in a sense, although we know it's bad for general society, and we do think about the K-shaped economy. Of course, inflation benefits us because it debases our debt. But even if you're not a real estate investor, even if you just own your own home, you know, Richard, I really think it begs the question: Is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage one of the best forms of debt ever created for ordinary Americans?   Richard Vague  34:22   The 30-year mortgage, which was created, you know, that started on that path in the 1930 s for the very reasons we all know and love, which is getting Americans to own their own home, and has been, you know, a game changer for the country, and truly one of the great things that's been done, and I hope it's something that we continue to defend and preserve.   Keith Weinhold  34:46   Well, that brings up leverage and the prudent use of leverage. As real estate investors, we have this benefit of getting all these 30-year fixed-rate loans without the threat of a. Margin call being made. We're not borrowing over in the stock market. When you sign your loan documents, it doesn't say that the bank can call your note due at any time, but one could take it too far. And when it comes to debt, I think that really begs the question: Where does intelligent leverage end, and then dangerous leverage begin. What's the border?   Richard Vague  35:25   Well, you guys are experts, and I'm not. But the very simple premise is starts with not overpaying for the property to begin with. It is not an exact science, but generally speaking, I think we can tell when prices are relatively high in a given market and or a given year and relatively low, and you you'd always want to kind of be at least in the middle or somewhat on the low end before you acquire a property. So that's step number one, and then step number two is really just giving yourself a buffer, you know. We saw in the global financial crisis that real estate loans were being made in some cases at 100% of value. Yeah, and frankly, we saw at least some episodes within that folks borrowing over 100% of value, and certainly they were very happy when that happened. But we know there's zero margin for error when you do that, and perhaps even a negative margin for error when you do that. So I would think, you know, you guys know better than me, but you know, I hate to borrow it much more than like 90% of value, maybe 95% if it's a smaller asset and you have a government guarantee, and if you can do it at lower leverage, you know, 70 or 80% of value, that's not a bad thing to consider. I tend to think in the real estate world that you know I've seen many investors, particularly in the commercial space, buy things with lower leverage, 50 or 75% But then, as the asset proves itself, they work with their lender to increase the debt-to-value ratio, you know, and get more money at it over time as it becomes an increasingly proven asset. So they migrate their way from 75% to 95% over time. I think that's a logical path.   Keith Weinhold  37:20   That acronym Ninja Loans, which were popular from about 2000 to 2007, that acronym Ninja means no income, no job or assets, and you might still get a loan of 110% of the value of the property. It was profligately irresponsible. Well, Richard, in a moment, I want to ask if you have a resource that our audience can follow along with you if they would like to do so. But before I do that, do you have any last thing that you would like to talk about? Maybe something that I did not ask you, whether it has to do with the general economy or real estate or interest rates or inflations. Is there something else that we should know?   Richard Vague  38:00   What I would do is just endorse your podcast.   Keith Weinhold  38:04   Thanks.   Richard Vague  38:05   You're approaching this in a very intelligent way, and you're very empirical, and I think your listeners are doing themselves a service by continuing to follow what you do. That's a really reasonable, secure, and yet bold path towards creating wealth, then I think you're to be commended.   Keith Weinhold  38:27   Oh, I appreciate the endorsement. I'm always blown away at our following, but you have some resources worth following as well. Tell us about that.   Richard Vague  38:36   Well, we do. We have a weekly video ourselves that it's about a five-minute video, and you can go to our website, which is tycos.com. So t y c h o s.com, and you know we have data on the site. If you're a real geek, you could go in and you can look at our macroeconomic data. You know, but if you're not, you can sign up for the video, and we come out with what we hope is a short but relevant video once a week talking on some aspect of the economy, and you know we'd love to have folks join that if they're interested.   Keith Weinhold  39:10   Well, it's valuable. I suggest you, the listener, check that out. Richard oftentimes turns conventional economics on his head, just like he did with us today, talking about how if there's higher interest rates, that does not necessarily mean lower inflation. Richard, it's been valuable as always. It's been great having you back on the show.   Richard Vague  39:30   It's an honor to be with you. Keep up the great work.   Keith Weinhold  39:38   In this remote interview, I got a beautiful look over Richard's shoulders there on the screen at Center City, Philadelphia, in the ornate buildings there. I will be in that part of the nation again shortly. Big thanks to Richard Vague. If you're looking him up, it is spelled V-A-G-U-E. We've got a. A lot of terrific content coming up on the show over the next few weeks, including fresh takes on building your wealth that you've never heard before. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 3  40:18   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Keith Weinhold  40:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. getricheducation.com  

"Kevin Warsh came in with an agenda of change" that faces a heap of headwinds, says Axel Merk. He breaks down the key points from the new Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech last week and what it means for equities and commodities. Turning to the bond market, Axel calls the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback plan a "political" move that conflicts with Warsh's plans for the FOMC. He highlights how the August jobs report can create further confusion when it comes to interest rates.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Maria Llerena outlines her expectations for the Fed and its interest rate outlook after Kevin Warsh set a hawkish-leaning tone at Jackson Hole. She weighs inflation and job market risks still ahead as rate hike chances sit at a coin toss's probability. As the AI buildout continues, Maria offers her takeaways on how she sees the tech developments impacting productivity and whether it will lead to a deflationary environment. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech makes Liz Ann Sonders believe the FOMC will hike interest rates, the question is when. A reescalation in the U.S.-Iran war and global trade wars pose as a threat to the inflation outlook. Michelle Gibley analyzes the Japanese yen's recent weakness and the greater implications it has for U.S. stocks. In China, she believes the country made a lot of progress in technology but it's not translating well into earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

NVIDIA just delivered another monster quarter, reinforcing the case that the AI infrastructure boom is far from over. In Episode 195 of The Investor Professor Podcast, we break down NVIDIA's explosive data-center growth, its potential move toward major stock buybacks, and why the company may still look attractive despite becoming one of the most valuable businesses in the world. We also examine Kevin Warsh's message from Jackson Hole, stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and what a potentially tougher Federal Reserve could mean for housing, the economy, and markets heading into the fall.We also mark six months since the U.S.-Iran conflict began and discuss how higher oil prices, defense spending, AI infrastructure, and political uncertainty could create both risks and opportunities for investors. From NVIDIA and cybersecurity to defense stocks, industrials, healthcare, and dividend-paying companies, we focus on separating short-term noise from long-term opportunity—and why investors should be thinking about the next three years, not the next three weeks.*This podcast contains general information that may not be suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Rydar Equities, Inc. does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Send us Fan MailOn Multifamily AP360, Neal Bawa says his view has shifted: supply and interest rates now drive multifamily profits more than demographics, and inaccurate third‑party permit tracking in 2022–2023 missed about 30% extra supply that contributed to widespread negative rent growth across major growth markets. He describes using AI to scrape county permit data and to improve operations, arguing the industry underuses AI beyond underwriting. Examples include an AI “Secret Shop” system that tests lead follow-up speed and quality across owned properties and 86 competitors, and an AI-assisted camera workflow that creates timesheets and uncovered employee time theft. Bawa says the broader multifamily market isn't distressed, but syndication is shrinking sharply; pricing is fair given higher rates and weaker rents. He would buy in low-tax/low-insurance, supply-absorbed markets like Boise, avoid markets with significant incoming supply, and warns underwriting assumptions for rent growth and cap compression are often unrealistic. Support the showFollow Rama on socials!LinkedIn | Meta | Twitter | Instagram|YoutubeConnect to Rama Krishnahttps://calendly.com/rama-krishna/ E-mail: info@ushacapital.comWebsite: www.ushacapital.comRegister for Multifamily AP360 - 2026   virtual conference - https://mfap360.com/To find out more about partnering or investing in a multifamily deal:  email: info@ushacapital.com

Crypto News: Bitcoin and altcoins see price pullbacks. Fed chair Kevin Warsh comes out hawkish hinting at rate hikes. Investors at least $4.7 billion underwater across Trump crypto ventures, Public Citizen says.

P.M. Edition for Aug. 28. Economics correspondent Nick Timiraos reports from Jackson Hole on how investors are interpreting Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech. Plus, some of President Trump's biggest corporate donors are now cutting checks to Democrats, too. WSJ's White House reporter Annie Linskey explains how American companies are preparing for a potential Democratic comeback in November. And WSJ's global energy reporter Collin Eaton unpacks how Chevron and other U.S. energy companies are closing in on deals worth billions to expand in Venezuela's oil fields. Sabrina Siddiqui hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hour 3 for 8/28/26 Drew begins the hour talking about interest rates possibly rising with Peter Grandich (7:00) and other topics include Capital Gaints Taxes (13:48), taxing the rich (17:15), unrealized appreciation (18:52) and money and God (21:17). In the 2nd half of the hour Dr. Paul Kengor talks about Dr. Anthony Fauci and his involvement during the AIDS crisis (31:01), Fauci speaking on AIDS in 1983 (35:16), similarities between AIDS and COVID (41:16), AIDS and media and Hollywood (44:06), lessons could we learn from AIDS and Fauci (46:27) and medications withheld from AIDS patients (49:33) Resources: https://spectator.org/how-anthony-fauci-and-the-1980s-aids-scare-shaped-public-fear/

Lawmakers and civil rights activists speak at the March on Washington's 63rd anniversary, with the theme "Defend the Vote"; Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first speech at the Fed's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, saying inflation is still too high, suggesting interest rate cuts may be coming. We will hear from the Chair and talk with Washington Post's Global Economics Correspondent David Lynch (17); U.S. war with Iran is six months old today. We will talk with Elise Labott, author "Cosmopolitics" Substack newsletter about the state of the conflict, strategy on each side, and what may come next (36); President Donald Trump visits the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas to award medals to the Artemis II crew, discuss plans for future space exploration and to announce the creation of a new U.S. Space Force Academy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his first speech at Jackson Hole as Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh said that while inflation readings had looked better than expected over the summer, they did not show that the current picture had “meaningfully improved”. The new Fed boss stressed that his remarks should not be treated as a guide to future interest rate decisions, but his comments suggest rates could be raised if policymakers believe inflation is too high. The latest figures showed prices rose 3.4% in the year to July, above the Fed's 2% target. And more than 80 British actors and vocal artists are calling for stronger legal protection against AI clones of their voices. They've signed an open letter calling on the Prime Minister to give everyone in the UK a legal right to own their voice.

This episode of On Investing looks at a market environment increasingly shaped by persistent inflation, rising long-term Treasury yields, fiscal concerns, and renewed trade tensions. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin begin by discussing the latest inflation data, which continues to show price pressures well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. While wage growth is not driving inflation, they highlight several other forces keeping inflation elevated, including energy prices, tariffs, and the massive investment required to support the AI boom. The conversation then turns to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to influence long-term interest rates after yields surged. Collin argues that Bessent's actions are understandable given concerns about mortgage rates and borrowing costs, but he views them as a short-term response to a much deeper issue: the nation's growing debt burden and ongoing fiscal deficits. Both hosts suggest that attempts to manage yields address the symptoms rather than the underlying causes. They also explore the potential tension this creates with the Federal Reserve, which may prefer tighter financial conditions to combat inflation. The episode closes with a look ahead to the Fed's Jackson Hole conference, upcoming labor market reports, purchasing manager surveys, and other economic data that could shape expectations for both growth and Fed policy. You can read the report Liz Ann mentions here: "Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away." On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses. Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. (0826-1AXY) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A possible interest rate hike kept stocks lower.

After celebrating 200 episodes, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton are back for Episode 203 of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, looking at the latest news affecting manufacturers, wholesale distributors, independent sales agents, and the global supply chain.This week, Kevin and Tom reflect on the 200th episode celebration, the growth of the podcast, and what may be coming next for Around the Horn, including more interview-style episodes and expanded industry coverage.From there, they dig into the economy, including the latest Fed signals from Jackson Hole, interest rate expectations, inflation pressure, consumer spending, and why the tools available to the Fed may not be enough to solve today's price challenges.The conversation also covers new Iran sanctions, pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, Canadian tariffs, the impact of Canada's role in U.S. energy, aluminum, lumber, and electricity imports, and the growing concern around Panama Canal delays and potential El Niño-related supply chain disruption.Kevin and Tom then turn to AI and technology, including Bill Gates' warning about AI-driven upheaval, the real impact of AI on jobs, why historical comparisons to the internet and personal computers may still matter, and how distributors and manufacturers can use AI to elevate people, improve decision-making, and unlock more value from existing systems of record.The episode also includes updates on APR Supply's acquisition of Mutual Wholesalers, the continuing evolution of LeadSmart's enterprise growth platform, physical AI, humanoid robots, sales and marketing visibility, and what distributors should be watching as we move toward our next 100 episodes.What You'll LearnWhy the Fed may still be leaning toward a rate increaseHow inflation, fuel prices, and consumer spending are affecting business planningWhy Canada tariffs could have a major impact on U.S. manufacturing and distributionHow Panama Canal delays and El Niño could create new supply chain pressureWhy AI disruption may be real, but not as simple as job lossHow distributors can use connected data, AI, and automation to elevate their teamsWhy physical AI and humanoid robots matter for the future of operationsTopics CoveredFederal Reserve policy and interest ratesInflation and consumer spendingIran sanctions and the Strait of HormuzCanada tariffs and North American tradePanama Canal delaysSuper El Niño supply chain riskAI upheaval and job displacementCRM, ERP, and enterprise growth platformsPhysical AI and humanoid robotsWholesale distribution technologyAPR Supply and Mutual WholesalersTimestamps/Chapters:00:00 — Introduction and Dolly Parton Tribute04:30 — Reflecting on the 200th Episode Celebration10:15 — What Comes Next for Around The Horn15:30 — Housekeeping, Newsletter, and LeadSmart Technologies22:00 — Fed Signals from Jackson Hole29:15 — Interest Rates, Inflation, and Market Expectations38:00 — Core Prices, B2B Need, and Economic Uncertainty44:30 — Iran Sanctions and Strait of Hormuz Risk52:00 — Canada Tariffs and North American Trade Pressure59:30 — Panama Canal Delays and Supply Chain Costs1:05:00 — Super El Niño and Port Disruption Risk1:11:00 — APR Supply Acquisition and Industry Updates1:14:30 — Bill Gates, AI Turmoil, and Job Disruption1:20:00 — AI, Systems of Record, and Enterprise Growth Platforms1:24:00 — End of EpisodeLeave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

Segment 1: Craig Bolanos, Founder and Wealth Advisor at VestGen Wealth Partners, joins Jon Hansen to talk about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sticking to his guns on getting inflation down to 2%, why the market is reacting negatively to Warsh’s comments, what the Fed will likely do with interest rates in September, the concern over the national […]

Natalia Lojevsky discusses her expectations for Kevin Warsh and the Fed at the Jackson Hole symposium and ways it will affect the bond market. For bondholders expecting an interest rate cut anytime soon, Natalia says, "you're waiting for the wrong thing." She addresses the Treasury's move to boost liquidity on some long-term bonds to curb yields, calling the decision one that won't last long-term.

Joe Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America and former Treasury advisor under President Trump, believes investors are "hyperventilating" over bond moves and interest rates. He believes there's no reason to panic unless interest rates show a strong, disorderly move. Joe explains how recent economic data and discussions from the Fed ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium suggest there's reason for investors to stay calm.

Paul gives an update on markets in the third quarter of 2026 and explains why this month has been marked by bond sell-offs that have affected interest rates, pushed stock prices up, and raised inflation concerns. Listen along to hear Paul explain how these markets work, what these changes may mean for investors, and why confident investors know enough not to act impulsively.    Want to cut through the myths about retirement income and learn evidence-based strategies backed by over a century of data? Download our free Retirement Income Guide now at paulwinkler.com/relax and take the stress out of planning your retirement.   This material is for general educational purposes only and is not personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any security or strategy. All financial decisions involve risk, and you should consult qualified professionals before acting on this information. Advisory services offered through Paul Winkler, Inc., an SEC-registered investment adviser. 

The national debt exceeds $40 trillion, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are at 19-year highs, the U.S. Treasury Department is intervening in currency and bond markets. We unpack it all in this episode and show you how to position your investment portfolio to lock in higher yields and protect yourself from falling bond prices.SponsorsTry NetSuite for FreeDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode 563 Slide DeckDebt to the Penny - U.S. TreasuryHistorical debt and budget tables - U.S. White HouseAverage U.S. national debt interest rate - U.S. TreasuryTreasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 - U.S TreasuryAmerica's Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don't - Hanno LustigRelated Episodes525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors463: How to Lock in Higher Yields464: More Ways to Lock in Higher YieldsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A few weeks ago, we closed a $30 million refinance on Park Towers, a 210-unit multifamily property in Miami that we've owned since 2012. We secured long-term, fixed-rate financing at 6.09% in a lending environment that many people still describe as difficult.But I think saying “banks aren't lending” misses the bigger picture. Capital is available. The real questions are who can access it, which deals are getting financed, and whether the debt being used actually makes the investment stronger.In this video, I talk about how I approach leverage, interest rates, cash flow, refinancing risk, and margin for error when evaluating real estate investments. A great property can still become a bad investment if its capital structure can't survive when rates rise, occupancy falls, insurance costs increase, or refinancing becomes harder.I also share my perspective on why investors shouldn't depend on interest rates falling for a deal to work, how a more difficult financing environment can create better buying opportunities, and what more than a decade of owning and operating Park Towers has taught me about long-term value creation.The goal isn't to predict every market cycle correctly. It's to structure your investments so they can survive when one of your assumptions is wrong.Timestamps 00:10 The $30M Park Towers Refinance01:03 Are Banks Actually Lending?01:35 How Bad Debt Can Ruin a Good Deal03:00 Why Leverage Works Both Ways03:20 Can Your Investment Survive?04:15 Why Spreadsheets Can Mislead Investors05:51 Building for a Margin of Error06:15 Why Easy Money Can Be Dangerous06:40 How Difficult Markets Create Buying Opportunities07:50 The Long Game Behind Park Towers08:40 Why Durability Matters More Than Speed09:10 Stop Waiting for Interest Rates to Fall10:15 How to Survive Real Estate Cycles10:55 Using Debt to Make Good Deals StrongerSubscribe to the Channel Newsletter  https://moshepopack.com/newsletter/Follow Moshe Popackhttps://moshepopack.com/podcast/@mpopackhttps://www.instagram.com/mpopackhttps://www.facebook.com/MoshePopack

Markets are facing a growing list of risks as investors head into the final stretch of summer. Stocks are working through a slow-moving correction, Treasury yields remain elevated, technology leadership is being tested, and the Federal Reserve faces renewed questions about inflation and interest rates. Which risks actually matter for your portfolio, and which are mostly market noise? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, as we break down the latest economic data, market signals, Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and geopolitical developments to separate the real threats from the headlines. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Dolly Parton's Passing 1:46 - NVDIA is the Big News Today - will move markets tomorrow 4:34 - Markets Rally and Hold 20-DMA; Mitigating Market Risk 6:38 - NVIDIA Preview 10:26 - Lance's Wardrobe 11:35 - Semi-conductor Strategies 14:44 - 401-k Rotation Strategies 19:52 - Looking at Interest Rate plays - what is your goal? 22:13 - Is the Globalization Narrative breaking down? (TV Pricing & Exporting Inflation, Importing Deflation) 27:46 - Modifying Cap Ex concept in AI business? 28:48 - If the Basis Trade blows up? 29:19 - Barbell Strategies for ten-year term (Value ETF's vs Momentum ETF's) 35:22 - 50-50 portfolio (eating cake every night & not gain weight) 37:47 - Etherium Price at EOY? (you've missed The Move for this year); it is a risk asset 40:01 - Stuck with TMF (leveraged ETF) What Would You Do From here? 44:51 - When a Company is sold, when to get out? 45:24 - Value vs growth 46:04 - NVIDIA, Market Cap Concentration, & Top Ten Stocks 49:01 - What Could Cause a Spike Higher in Yields? 51:50 - Stanley Drunkenmiller vs the Fed: Let the market dictate action 52:49 - Balanced Portfolios at age 80? 55:21 - Sectors most under-valued, over-looked, and over-valued? 56:38 - How much of investing proverbs/rules have come true? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/tESc03T56K4?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/three-percent-real-tips-yields-boring-but-valuable/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test," https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Investing #InterestRates

Markets are facing a growing list of risks as investors head into the final stretch of summer. Stocks are working through a slow-moving correction, Treasury yields remain elevated, technology leadership is being tested, and the Federal Reserve faces renewed questions about inflation and interest rates. Which risks actually matter for your portfolio, and which are mostly market noise? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, as we break down the latest economic data, market signals, Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and geopolitical developments to separate the real threats from the headlines. 0:00 INTRO 1:00 - Dolly Parton's Passing 1:46 - NVDIA is the Big News Today - will move markets tomorrow 4:34 - Markets Rally and Hold 20-DMA; Mitigating Market Risk 6:38 - NVIDIA Preview 10:26 - Lance's Wardrobe 11:35 - Semi-conductor Strategies 14:44 - 401-k Rotation Strategies 19:52 - Looking at Interest Rate plays - what is your goal? 22:13 - Is the Globalization Narrative breaking down? (TV Pricing & Exporting Inflation, Importing Deflation) 27:46 - Modifying Cap Ex concept in AI business? 28:48 - If the Basis Trade blows up? 29:19 - Barbell Strategies for ten-year term (Value ETF's vs Momentum ETF's) 35:22 - 50-50 portfolio (eating cake every night & not gain weight) 37:47 - Etherium Price at EOY? (you've missed The Move for this year); it is a risk asset 40:01 - Stuck with TMF (leveraged ETF) What Would You Do From here? 44:51 - When a Company is sold, when to get out? 45:24 - Value vs growth 46:04 - NVIDIA, Market Cap Concentration, & Top Ten Stocks 49:01 - What Could Cause a Spike Higher in Yields? 51:50 - Stanley Drunkenmiller vs the Fed: Let the market dictate action 52:49 - Balanced Portfolios at age 80? 55:21 - Sectors most under-valued, over-looked, and over-valued? 56:38 - How much of investing proverbs/rules have come true? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/tESc03T56K4?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/three-percent-real-tips-yields-boring-but-valuable/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "NVIDIA Earnings Put Market Support to the Test," https://youtu.be/5Dkn-dNU9wA ------- Watch our previous show, "Are Today's Interest Rates Really That High?" https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #NVIDIA #StockMarket #NVDA #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Investing #InterestRates

Brian Jacobsen says markets got a "sigh of relief" that PCE didn't come in higher than headline numbers showed, so long as core PCE doesn't leak into greater inflation woes.When it comes to the path ahead for interest rates, Ben Ayers doesn't think the print is enough for the Fed to raise yet. Both guests offer their takes on what July's PCE print means for the greater inflation picture.

Nightlife News Breakdown with Philip Clark, joined by Clare Armstrong, the ABC's chief digital political correspondent, based at Parliament House in Canberra.

Episode 310 opens with Steve Dennis reporting back from an invitation-only Amazon analyst day in Seattle, two days focused on Prime and grocery. Steve unpacks the breadth of the Prime flywheel, Amazon's push into sub-one-day delivery, the drone facility he toured just before the company announced an expansion to roughly 500 markets, and why Amazon's rise to the number two grocer in North America should have rivals looking over their shoulders. Then, the numbers. US retail sales grew about 5% excluding fuel. Walmart delivered a lackluster 2.6% US comp, its weakest in six years, offset by a 46% jump in global advertising and nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds the company says it will reinvest in price. Target posted a nearly 4% comp with traffic up 3.6%; real progress, though Steve cautions the invitation can be better than the party. In off-price, TJX comped 4% while Ross Stores turned in a second straight double-digit quarter. And Simon Property Group made the case that great physical retail is alive and well. The interview, recorded live at the CommerceNext Growth Show in New York, features Scott Friend, Partner at Bain Capital Ventures, and Indy Guha, General Partner at VMG Partners. Scott co-founded price optimization pioneer ProfitLogic before joining BCV twenty years ago; Indy co-leads VMG's commerce infrastructure fund after scaling Signifyd. Together they tackle a hard question: when AI makes everything easier to build, how do you tell a real company from a pitch formula? Their answer centers on founder clarity and earned domain expertise, because a couple of quarters' head start has never mattered more. The conversation ranges across whether personalization and merchandising optimization are now table stakes, the surveillance pricing debate, AI-driven homogeneity versus the promise of the "N of one" customer journey, and Indy's memorable "Claude-proof" test for anyone building in commerce. Both push back on agentic commerce hype, arguing agents will own low-interest replenishment missions while people keep the treasure hunt. Scott points to the revenue ramp of AI-native companies as evidence this cycle is real, not overhyped. Both land in the same place: brand, community, and authenticity are the last durable moats, and retail teams must become architects rather than assembly-line workers. Back in studio, on the radar: Steve tracks the bond market, with 30-year Treasuries at a 19-year high and the 10-year at 4.75%, squeezing discretionary income and retailer expansion plans alike. Michael watches Canadian icon Roots, newly sold to New York's Marquee Brands with Joe Mimran advising on merchandising, and asks whether the brand can reclaim its former glory. Registration is open for a special webinar featuring Steve in conversation with Placer AI's Head of Analytical Research RJ Hottovy. From changing shopping patterns to emerging market opportunities, shifting consumer demand continues to reshape the industry. So don't miss this data-driven session unpacking the most important trends defining today's marketplace and the strategies leading brands are using to win retail's future. It's all brought to you by Placer.AI and It all happens on Tuesday September 29 at 1pm ET..Register here today:https://www.placer.ai/discover-events/discover-shifting-consumer-demand About UsSteve Dennis is a strategic advisor and keynote speaker focused on growth and innovation, who has also been named one of the world's top retail influencers. He is the bestselling author of two books: Leaders Leap: Transforming Your Company at the Speed of Disruption and Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a Forbes senior retail contributor and on social media.Michael LeBlanc is a senior retail advisor, keynote speaker and media entrepreneur. Michael has delivered keynotes, hosted fire-side discussions hosted senior retail executive on-stage in 1:1 interviews worldwide. Michael produces and hosts a network of leading retail trade podcasts, including The Remarkable Retail Podcast, The Voice of Retail, The Food Professor, The FEED powered by Loblaw and the Global eCommerce Leaders podcast. He has been recognized by the NRF as a global Top Retail Voice for 2025 and 2026 and continues to be a ReThink Retail Top Retail Expert for the fifth year in a row.

Interest rates are rising, long-term bond prices have pulled back, and investors are once again worried that higher Treasury yields could threaten the economy and markets. But what if today's rates aren't historically high at all? After more than a decade of near-zero rates and easy monetary policy, investors may have become accustomed to an environment that was anything but normal. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn put today's interest rates into historical perspective, examine what higher yields really say about inflation, growth, debt, and deficits, and explain why a 5% long-term Treasury yield may not be the crisis many headlines suggest. We'll also look at what the changing rate environment means for stocks, bonds, portfolio risk, and investors deciding whether weakness in longer-duration bonds is a warning—or an opportunity. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Weekly Preview & Treasury General Account Bond Buy Backs 2:04 - Shorting Treasuries & The Hedge Fund Trade 5:37 - Markets Going Thru a Slow-Motion Correction 8:24 - BitCoin Rallies on Bessent Announcement 11:52 - Bonds & Rates: Brake or Break? 19:08 - Rates Are Normal 21:56 - The Primary Determinants that Set Loan Rates (Economic Composite Index) 25:46 - The Effect of Debt on Economy 29:46 - The Negative Multiplier, Measured (Gov't. Debt vs Household Debt) 33:33 - The S&P in 2008? When Markets are Unsustainable 36:58 - $40-trillion (and "Zero") & Shock and Awe 39:40 - Retirees Get Paid to own Treasuries (How Much to Allocate?) 41:57 - Is the Dollar Losing Value? 44:45 - There is Always a Buyer for Debt (Primary Dealers) 47:56 - Fasting w Lance & Christina Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Correction: Patience Pays," https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io ------- Watch our previous show, "Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?" https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve

Interest rates are rising, long-term bond prices have pulled back, and investors are once again worried that higher Treasury yields could threaten the economy and markets. But what if today's rates aren't historically high at all? After more than a decade of near-zero rates and easy monetary policy, investors may have become accustomed to an environment that was anything but normal. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn put today's interest rates into historical perspective, examine what higher yields really say about inflation, growth, debt, and deficits, and explain why a 5% long-term Treasury yield may not be the crisis many headlines suggest. We'll also look at what the changing rate environment means for stocks, bonds, portfolio risk, and investors deciding whether weakness in longer-duration bonds is a warning—or an opportunity. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Weekly Preview & Treasury General Account Bond Buy Backs 2:04 - Shorting Treasuries & The Hedge Fund Trade 5:37 - Markets Going Thru a Slow-Motion Correction 8:24 - BitCoin Rallies on Bessent Announcement 11:52 - Bonds & Rates: Brake or Break? 19:08 - Rates Are Normal 21:56 - The Primary Determinants that Set Loan Rates (Economic Composite Index) 25:46 - The Effect of Debt on Economy 29:46 - The Negative Multiplier, Measured (Gov't. Debt vs Household Debt) 33:33 - The S&P in 2008? When Markets are Unsustainable 36:58 - $40-trillion (and "Zero") & Shock and Awe 39:40 - Retirees Get Paid to own Treasuries (How Much to Allocate?) 41:57 - Is the Dollar Losing Value? 44:45 - There is Always a Buyer for Debt (Primary Dealers) 47:56 - Fasting w Lance & Christina Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lPCVe6O4LjM ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Correction: Patience Pays," https://youtu.be/w_BcRBJ00Io ------- Watch our previous show, "Is the Basis Trade Distorting Bond Yields?" https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #SP500 #Bitcoin #MarketCorrection #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Bitcoin #FederalReserve

From $40 trillion in U.S. debt to an everyday employee who quietly built seven-figure wealth, this episode of the Money Matters Podcast covers a lot of ground. Join Wes Moss and Jeff Lloyd as they seek to help make sense of the markets, retirement planning, and a few fascinating detours along the way. ·       Celebrate college football season and the start of fall. ·       Unpack how U.S. debt, federal deficits, and interest rates may affect investors and the economy. ·       See how the bond market and Federal Reserve may influence interest rates. ·       Explore cancer treatment advances and the growing potential of AI in healthcare. ·       Consider what demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and higher yields may mean for investors. ·       Hear what Wes shared on The Money Guy Show about the habits associated with happier retirees. ·       Learn why sequence of returns risk may matter when taking portfolio withdrawals in retirement. ·       Discover how a longtime employee reportedly accumulated seven-figure wealth through decades of consistent saving and investing. ·       Consider how workplace benefits, retirement contributions, and staying invested may support long-term wealth accumulation. ·       Explore the Retire Sooner Method and its approach to retirement planning. ·       Laugh along with a golf analogy that shows why personal finance may be as unique as your swing. Bring some personality to the serious business of planning for retirement. Listen and subscribe to the Money Matters Podcast with Wes Moss and Jeff Lloyd for more conversations about investing, retirement planning, and personal finance.

Ben Harris is vice president and director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and previously served in senior economic policy roles at the Treasury Department and Council of Economic Advisers. Ben returns to the program to discuss why recent economic shocks have been less damaging than expected, the outlook for inflation and energy markets, whether AI can improve the U.S. fiscal outlook, why we should temper our AI optimism, how longer lifespans and higher interest rates could complicate the fiscal picture, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on July 20th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Ben on X: @econ_harris Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:55 - Reasons We Were Wrong 00:11:58 - Stubborn Inflation 00:14:57 - Crude Is Not Really the Problem 00:20:12 - A Novel Sanctions Regime 00:30:35 - Temper Your AI Optimism 00:39:34 - Longer Lives, But Larger Debt 00:45:00 - AI and the Future of Interest Rates 00:49:24 - Policy Implications 00:56:26 - Outro

With the weakening consumer, and both the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve trying to keep demand strong by lowering rates, Luke Lloyd, President and CEO of Lloyd Financial Group, thinks “it is a perfect time to get longer duration.” He thinks higher rates would lead to a recession, and is more focused on unemployment risk than on oil or geopolitics.

Higher mortgage rates quietly changed the math on one of the most argued questions in personal finance. If you're in tech, with a mortgage, RSUs, and real money to deploy, the answer isn't as obvious as it used to be, and the stakes are higher than a simple rate comparison suggests. In this episode, Amy Walls walks you through how to weigh a guaranteed return against an uncertain one, what extra mortgage payments actually compete with (it's not your 401(k) match), how your equity comp and concentration picture change the call, and how to set a decide-once rule so you stop relitigating it every month. You'll learn: Why higher rates made this an open question again, and what actually changed How to compare a guaranteed payoff return to an uncertain investment return What extra mortgage payments should, and shouldn't, compete with How taxes and the standard deduction can change your math Why liquidity and concentration matter before the mortgage question does How to set a split strategy that respects both the numbers and how you're wired Why paying down the mortgage and investing aren't symmetrical choices (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Should You Pay Off the Mortgage or Invest? (00:57) The Basic Decision Framework (02:26) Why Higher Mortgage Rates Change the Math (03:19) Guaranteed Returns Versus Expected Returns (05:59) Why Personal Behavior Matters (06:09) Common Mortgage Payoff Mistakes (09:02) Using RSUs and Bonuses (09:18) Liquidity and Concentration Risk (12:20) The Value of Peace of Mind (12:34) Lower Fixed Costs and Employment Uncertainty (14:58) When Psychology Changes the Best Decision (15:50) What to Prioritize First (18:47) Choosing a Lane Intentionally (19:07) How to Contact Thimbleberry Financial   To get in touch with Amy and her team at Thimbleberry Financial, call 503-610-6510 or visit thimbleberryfinancial.com.The ThimbleberryU Podcast is produced by JAG Podcast Productions - https://jagpodcastproductions.com/

Let's talk about Trump, Switzerland, and interest rates....

Top of mind for the Inside Economics team this week is the surge in long-term interest rates. Colleague Martin Wurm joins the conversation to unpack why rates have risen so sharply, assess whether the U.S. Treasury's efforts to stem the increase will work, and consider the risk of a much more serious bond market sell-off. Fundamentally, the only real solution is for the nation to address its darkening fiscal outlook. Hmmm…. Guest: Martin Wurm Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of On Investing, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the recent surge in global bond yields and what it means for investors. Collin explains that long-term Treasury yields have risen due to a combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish posture, elevated uncertainty premiums, fiscal concerns, and a global move higher in interest rates. He emphasizes that inflation expectations remain relatively well-behaved, suggesting the rise in yields is less about fears of runaway inflation and more about uncertainty, government borrowing needs, and a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.  Liz Ann discusses how higher yields affect stocks, noting that growth-oriented sectors, real estate, and utilities are particularly sensitive to rising rates. She also argues that investors may be operating in a more volatile "Temperamental Era," where inflation and bond yields play a larger role in driving equity market performance than they did during the decades-long "Great Moderation."  Then, Liz Ann interviews former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who argues that the Federal Reserve risks falling behind the curve by tolerating inflation near 3% rather than returning it to its 2% target. Bullard shares his views on monetary policy, AI's potential impact on productivity, geopolitical risks, financial markets, and the evolving economic landscape.  Finally, Liz Ann and Collin provide a preview of upcoming economic indicators and data releases, including the Fed's preferred inflation measure, housing data, and consumer sentiment surveys. You can read the report Liz Ann mentions here: “Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away.” On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. (0826-Z0K4) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Rich says an upward-sloping yield curve isn't an outright negative signal for Wall Street, even if it does ring alarm bells for investors. He discusses the dynamics he sees the move creating for the weeks and months ahead as the Fed is "filling sandbags" ahead of Jackson Hole. "We could be in for a choppy few weeks," says Kevin, as the FOMC plot out its path for interest rates as inflation and jobs data show signs of divergence. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

A round-up of the main headlines in Sweden on 20th August 2026. You can hear more reports on our homepage www.radiosweden.se, or in the app Sveriges Radio. Presenter/producer: Kris Boswell.

In the same week that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled and a new Iran bill threatens to bar 'hostile' ships, Turkish officials confirmed Black Sea passage continues while Houthi attacks escalate in the Red Sea region. We map out how simultaneous threats to multiple critical waterways create compounding risks for global trade, inflation, and investor portfolios.Today's Stocks & Topics: Positions Sizing, Market Wrap, Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR), Private Investments, Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), Global Shipping Under Siege: How Hormuz, the Black Sea, and Red Sea Threats Hit Your Investments, Equity and Retirement, Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), Big Tech Earnings, ONEOK, Inc. (OKE), AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB), Interest Rates.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

P.M. Edition for Aug. 14. Money managers have a problem: Clients are holding near-record amounts in cash—by one estimate more than $3 trillion. Miriam Gottfried, a reporter and co-host of WSJ's Take On the Week podcast, explains why this is happening and what financial planners are pushing their clients to do instead. Plus, two pieces of data—July retail sales and the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey—came in lower than expected. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman says that is painting a picture of a weaker U.S. economy. And AI slop is everywhere, making it hard to know what's real online. We hear from WSJ personal tech columnist Nicole Nguyen about the inspiration for her recent special Tech News Briefing podcast series, “AI and the Blurring of Reality.” Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.