Tabadlab's Dragon Road

The G7 recently announced the Build Back Better World Partnership (B3W), a commitment to invest up to $40 trillion to plug the infrastructure gap in low- and middle-income countries exacerbated by the Covid-19 crisis. The B3W is pitched as a challenge to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a key part of the US plan to counter China's growing global influence. For this week's episode of Dragon Road we are joined by Jonathan Hillman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Jonathan has also recently authored a book titled “ The Emperor's New Road, China and the Project of the Century”. The conversation for this week's edition is centered around a comparison between the US backed B3W and China's BRI. Our guest Jonathan dissects the merits and demerits of B3W and draws parallels between this project and previous US efforts to counter China, like the Blue Dot Network.

China's foreign minister Wang Yi recently hosted a delegation of the Taliban, led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in Tianjin. The meeting highlighted Beijing's balancing act — of seeing both an opportunity and a threat in Afghanistan in the backdrop of the withdrawal of US troops. This is not the first time that China has made an outreach to the Taliban. The Afghan militant group has visited China before, and the Chinese maintain regular channels of communication and contact through the Taliban's Doha office. However, the recent Taliban visit has the markings of one that was put together over a short period. As Chinese skepticism about the U.S's withdrawal strategy has increased in recent times, the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs in Beijing has also been vary of America supporting military groups in Afghanistan to attack China. This episode of Dragon Road discusses this and more about the future of China in Afghanistan. Raffaello Pantucci an expert on China gives his views in this detailed discussion about China, its relations with the Ghani Government, its dealings with Taliban, its interests in the region and its reservations with the US exit.

Guest: Peter Martin, Defence Policy and Intelligence Reporter at Bloomberg. Revered in China's diplomatic corps as the founding father of Chinese diplomacy, Zhou Enlai established the militaristic culture within the foreign office in the early days of the People's Republic. Yet, for decades, China's low-key and passive approach to its diplomatic relations prevailed. The more combative style of diplomacy exemplified by, for instance, a former Chinese diplomat in Pakistan Zhao Lijian, is a more recent phenomenon shaped by external and internal changes. In this episode of Dragon Road, host Arif Rafiq discusses this “wolf warrior” diplomacy with journalist and author of China's Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Peter Martin. Martin explains the reasons behind the transition from Deng Xiaoping's cautious approach to President Xi Jinping's muscular direction. He also speaks about how this brand of nationalism is resonating within China and in countries such as Hungary, the Philippines and Russia, even as some in the Chinese foreign policy establishment quietly express their reservations. Speckled with historic anecdotes, the discussion examines the effectiveness of wolf-warrior diplomacy in the context of changing perceptions of global US leadership post-Trump and China's own economic self-confidence. About the guest: Peter Martin is a political reporter for Bloomberg News. He has written extensively on escalating tensions in the US-China relationship and reported from China's border with North Korea and its far-western region of Xinjiang. His latest book, China's Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, focuses on those on the front line of China's transformation from an isolated and impoverished communist state to a global superpower: China's diplomats.

Guest: Dr. Christoph Nedopil, Founding Director of the Green Belt and Road Initiative Center China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has come under heavy criticism for financing and supporting pollutive coal power projects. For example in Pakistan, coal went from a negligible share of the fuel for the country's electric power generation in 2014 to almost 20 per cent in 2019 with Chinese assistance. With the rising popularity of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower, China is now changing focus towards a “Green BRI”. In this podcast, host Arif Rafiq discusses the reasons behind this shift and its consequences with Dragon Road's guest, Dr. Christoph Nedopil Wang. Dr. Wang explains the political economy behind the Green BRI, the incentives and financing models for stakeholders in the renewable energy sector. Most importantly, Rafiq and Dr. Wang shed light on Chinese intentions: is the shift just a PR exercise or is there an incentive structure and policy framework to go green at home and abroad. Lastly, will China meet its domestic goal of net-zero emissions by 2060?

S01 E05 - String Of Pearls: Djibouti & Gwadar Part II by Tabadlab's Centre for Regional and Global Connectivity

In the first of a two-part series, Arif Rafiq separates the various strands of the “String of Pearls” theory with Isaac B. Kardon, which assumed the establishment of Chinese naval military bases from the South China Sea westward to the northern Indian Ocean in Chinese-operated commercial ports. These included ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. However, China's first overseas military base was set up in 2017 in the East African country, Djibouti, further fueling speculation about China's ‘strategic strongpoints'. Kardon explains whether missions are prepared for offensive or defensive operations. He talks about the nexus between Chinese party-state officials, state-owned enterprises and private firms in pursuing strategic commercial and foreign policy considerations through the expanding network of commercial ports. Rafiq and Kardon also discuss the debate within China on the dual-use nature of these ports.

In this third episode of Dragon Road, Arif Rafiq speaks to Elina Noor about the emerging China-US rivalry in the digital space. China has transformed itself from an exporter of cheap manufactured goods to a leading player in the technology space, like from artificial intelligence, to blockchain, and from 5G to e-commerce. China's emergence has caused great anxiety in the West, especially in Washington DC, due to suspicions about China-backed enterprises like Huawei and ZTE providing a backdoor to the Chinese government to spy on Western citizens. In this episode of Dragon Road with Ms. Noor, we discuss the impact of this rising rivalry in Southeast Asia, or the ASEAN region. Ms. Noor argues that ASEAN countries are used to being in the center of great power rivalry, hence there is no panic among them. She recommends that Western nations need to recognize the agency of the locals in the region to better compete with China.

In this episode of Dragon Road, host Arif Rafiq speaks to Dr. Bill Figueroa to help unpack the recently inked deal between China and Iran, placing it in the broader context of Sino-Iranian relations through the decades, and the political economies of both countries. Dr. Figueroa busts some myths about the deal's purported monetary value and as a manifestation of the China-US rivalry. He also answers the fundamental question of whether the agreement will lead to a closer relationship between China and Iran in the form of an alliance. Dr. Bill Figueroa is an expert on historical and contemporary Sino-Iranian relations. He recently graduated from the PhD History program at the University of Pennsylvania. In addition to his dissertation, titled “China and the Iranian Left: Transnational Networks of Social, Cultural, and Ideological Exchange, 1905-1979”, Dr. Figueroa writes on Sino-Iranian relations in various publications and news media outlets. He tweets at @IranChinaGuy. 'Awake' by Sappheiros is under a Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0) Music promoted by BreakingCopyright: https://youtu.be/75RyDDoXUhA

In this episode of Dragon Road, we are joined by Stella Hong Zhang to understand China's recent white paper on aid called China's International Development Cooperation in the New Era. Ms. Zhang sheds light on the Chinese aid model, from a historical perspective as well as its political underpinnings. We discuss the influence of the Japanese aid model on China, as China was once a major recipient of Japanese aid. The discussion touches on how China's approach to aid and development differs from traditional actors like the United States, and dispels myths about its aversion to multilateralism. Ms. Zhang talks about the role of Chinese state-owned enterprises and contractors in its development framework. She argues that the Chinese model with its emphasis on infrastructure lays the onus on donor countries to create an enabling environment to achieve sustainable growth. Ms. Zhang contends that the Belt and Road Initiative will be the overarching theme in the future of China's role in international developmental aid, highlighting how China, under Xi Jinping's leadership, is engaging in a more assertive and proactive foreign policy. We also discuss the future of China's aid policy, its focus on humanware, and building better connections with local communities. 'Awake' by Sappheiros is under a Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0) Music promoted by BreakingCopyright: https://youtu.be/75RyDDoXUhA

Tabadlab's Centre for Regional and Global Connectivity is proud to present... DRAGON ROAD... an exploration of China in the world. Season 01 is hosted by Arif Rafiq, President of Vizier Consulting.