Notayesmanspodcasts

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Is there, in your view, a tipping point — a percentage at which a country can bo longer afford its debt costs? The gap between EU and UK base rates is now significant. Is it abnormally so, by historical standards? Is it warranted?Do you think ONS are correct saying only 0.1 difference on restated CPI after car tax error? Hi Shaun, re your article on the scale of the US fiscal problem, is the CBO saying that Trump's Big Beautiful Bill will add $2.4tn to the US deficit by 2034 on the one hand, and also that his tariff hikes will reduce budget deficits by $2.5 trillion over the decade through 2035? Given your many years of experience, I am curious as to what extent you believe bond markets respond to political discourse Vs economic data/indicators?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What happens to inflation if we've got a shrinking economy and unemployment starts to rise? To what extent is active QT driving up the 30yr yield? Should the UK be issuing shorter-duration debt (10yrs max)? What do you believe is the timeline for this (fiscal policy) reaching a crisis point where the political consensus changes?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether the UK yield curve shows stronger growth, higher inflation, and "higher for longer" interest rate policy? How will the Bank of England explain inflation in its letter to the Chancellor? Is the Bank of England compromised? How does the EU Reset raise UK electricity prices?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is wrong with the UK Wages (Average Earnings) numbers? How can we reduce UK bond yields? Why the ongoing upward pressure on bond yields? Has Trump's trip to Middle East saved the US bond market ?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on will UK interest-rates be 2.5% in a year's time? Did Forward Guidance work? What do I make of the UK-US and UK-India trade deals? Will the German fiscal expansion boost the economy? Will any other currency surge like the New Taiwan Dollar?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What's the deal with EU inflation jump? Should we still be taxing energy companies a 78% tax on profits? What are the economic implications of Alberta spitting from Canada? Also my critique of US GDP.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Can apple relocate to India if there is full scale war? Can you explain why UK electricity costs are so high relative to our peers? What is happening in the UK bond market?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on How do you think mortgage rates in the UK for 2,3 and 5 year fixes are going to play out over the remainder of 2025? Any views on asset allocation in the age of Trump? Common wisdom has it that we should be wary of the adage: this time it's different. Is it different this time?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on can China devalue to mitigate the effect of the Tariff War? Will we see new trade blocs emerge? Will the Bank of England stop QT Gilt Sales? Does the Triffin Dilemma exist for the US? Have countries (China) been selling US Government Bonds to influence policy? Will the trade wars be inflationary or deflationary?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what will be the second round effects of the Trump Tariffs? Are Gold and Bitcoin joint threats to the monetary system? Will central banks cut or raise interest-rates in response to the Trade War? How much will the UK and other countries benefit from lower bond yields?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on will the UK be forced to go to the IMF? Does a Wealth Tax work? Has the Laffer Curve moved against us? Does Chancellor Reeves want a recession to reduce UK interest-rates to 0%?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on are we seeing more of a command and indeed communist economy in the UK these days? How will UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves react to losing her fiscal headroom? Should the Office for National Statistics offer opinions as well as figures?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether the Euro can survive EU rearmament and the rise in debt costs and debt interest? Plus my thoughts on the parlous state of the ECB balance sheet. Also how reliable are the Atlanta Fed GDP forecasts?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and whether we should fear them or hope for them? Plus I explain the risks of the central bank version or CBDCs. Will the Euro fall in response to Trump tariffs? Will UK taxes rise in the spring Budget?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the losses announced by the ECB and explain how the capital losses make the real position much worse. Also how much better off the UK would be if my advice to issue some 100 year bonds had been taken? How independent is the Bank of England? What would happen if the £1.8 trillion savings in the UK were spent or invested? Is energy inflation different to other types?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on a property or land value tax. Has Chancellor Reeves been tricked by the UK Treasury? How has the threat of Trump Tariffs affected UK financial markets? Does IHT on farmers reduce mortgage rates and increase economic growth as Prime Minister Starmer says?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the impact of the Money Supply on inflation? Why has the Bank of England got its forecasts so wrong again? Why is Gold being transferred from London to New York? Is business turning down in the UK?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why the Bank of England sold £550 million of UK bonds on Monday including selling some it paid ~100 for at 28? How much is it losing? What is really going on here? Presumably the gov has to issue bonds to cover these losses?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the Bank of Japan and losses on its enormous bond holdings? The difference between the quantity and quality of money? How does government spending boost GDP? Will the ECB let the Euro exchange-rate fall?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on when will the Bank of England cut interest-rates this year? Is the UK relaxing its mortgage affordability rules a good idea? What is the cheapest way of the Bank of England reducing its balance sheet or QT?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on when will the UK benchmark bond yield reach 5%? How much do bond yields affect public finances? Can batteries help the economics of UK electricity supply? Are we at risk of something in the financial system breaking?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on can industry in Europe recover from its depression? At what point will Chancellor Rachel Reeves have to resign like Liz Truss? Is the Bank of England using the wrong policy? Will the ECB intervene to support the French bond market?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on will further strength in the US Dollar and bond yields break something? Should the Government take back control of the Bank of England? How much has Bank of England QE lost? Can we break down inflation numbers? Why are food prices still rising?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the new Bank of England crisis tool will it be able to keep things secret? Was the UK GDP fall Labour's fault? Will the Bank of England cut interest-rates next week? How much notice do central bans take of inflation expectations?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on will the BRICS finally get the upper hand on the US Dollar? Will the Trump threats of 100% tariffs work? Does a Currency Board have a helping or hindering hand? What about the UK NHS and taxpayers and GDP?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the impact of Trump tariffs on the UK? Several questions on the budget crisis in France looking at bond yields relative to Greece and Germany? Can high debt countries stay afloat if rates stay high? Can you explain how we pay for wind power we do not use?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Does it really matter how big the US national debt gets, or not? What happens if the public finances lose "headroom"? Are EU & UK allowing manipulating their currencies to fall to counter Trump tariffs? What is currently giving confidence to the pound? Are National Insurance rises inflationary or deflationary? How will Chinese dollar denominated bonds sold in Saudi affect the world economy?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on when the UK should stop cutting interest-rates? Is Chancellor Reeves fiscal headroom over at a UK bond yield of 5%? How do you forecast economic growth and inflation? How does the Bank of England lose money on the QE bonds it bought? What do I think of UK pension changes? Why is economic growth per head stalling and falling?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the rise in UK bond yields and hence mortgage rates post the Budget and look at the causes by comparing with Germany and the US. Also what do you believe is the answer to our energy problems? Do you believe we can't move to renewable energy? What's the alternative?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the UK Budget and its consequences. For example likely future borrowing and UK bond yields (which set mortgage rates). Plus can we return to hard money (gold standard)? Will we see a recession? Will th Bank of England restart QE?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is happening to UK interest-rates and bond yields and why is it happening? Are we seeing a global debt crisis? Is the Euro area fueling an inflationary boom? Will we see negative interest-rates again? What about a central bank digital coin?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is going to happen to interest-rates and whether we should expect more 0.5% cuts? What can we expect from the US election? What next for the finances of Italy? Also what is happening to the VIX?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what happened to promises of average inflation targeting in the US? If the Donald applies trade tariffs will the US Dollar rally? Does QT help or hurt the public finances?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether the ECB will panic on interest-rates? Will European and UK bond yields resume their fall? Is the Chinese stimulus real? What is the impact of the UK importing so much energy? Why are UK bond yields rising?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether Switzerland is on course to return to negative interest-rates? Should the Bank of England start to make the case for lower energy prices ( and hence a different policy) to reduce inflation. Are other central banks selling the government bonds they bought under QE?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What's your thoughts on the Bank of England slowing down bond sales? What is potentially costing each and every UK taxpayer more than £10,000 or ten times the "Black Hole"? What can Germany do to get out of its economic crisis?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is the debt situation for Ireland after the Apple tax windfall? Also why GDP is of no use at all for Ireland? Would privatisation of the UK NHS save money? Is the Model Unit at HM Treasury all powerful?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether we are seeing Austerity or Fiscal Stimulus? After all there are many claims of Austerity but we also see persistent Budget Deficits and larger National Debts. I use the UK and France as examples.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why is Warren Buffett selling Apple and Bank of America? Are house prices in a bubble? Is there a £22 billion Black Hole on the UK Public finances? What are Labour's economic growth plans?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why is the Gold price at record highs? Is it inflation or interest-rates? Is the death of Mike Lynch worthy of investigation? If the Federal Reserve cuts interest-rates by 0.5% will the Bank of England follow it?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Why should the Bank of England cut interest rates much further? Why does the share price of UK house builders move so much on US economic data? Why has the UK become a Communist country?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is the Yen Carry Trade and what is the size of it? Also which inflation measures are house prices in and which ignore them?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the interest-rate cuts made by the Bank of England yesterday. Will they cut next time as well? Where will interest-rates be this time next year? Also will the UK see a Tobin Tax on fx trading?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the £20 billion Black Hole in the UK Public Finances that has been announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Plus why is the Bank of England now reliant on short-term repo operations as it runs down its QE holdings?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on who will pay for the UK Labour government's house building plan? What will the price of petrol be in 5 years? Why is the economy of Germany doing so badly?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what has been the financial market response to the Labour election victory? Also if you have ever wondered how we came to a 2% inflation target and what the flaws are? Listen and find out.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on why is the Japanese Yen falling so much? Will a change of government boost the UK economy? Why is the Bank of England losing so much money on QT bond sales? Why is biomass awful?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the relative debt and deficit situation in the UK and France? Can the UK save £35 billion by ending tiered interest at the Bank of England? What would be the best tax system? Are elections decided by finances and economics?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What is Money? Why the UK IFS is never challenged by the media? How can we improve the UK housing market? Do General Elections cause much market volatility? What is moving Dollar/Yen? Who will win the Euros?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the issues created for stock markets and the Fed by the rise and rise of stocks like Nvidia.? When will the Bank of England cut interest-rates? How QE and QT created the UK Repo problem.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what the money supply means via its different definitions? Why is the Bank of England creating a cash shortage via bond sales? What will be the first sign of an improvement in the Argentine economy? When will the lights go out?