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Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com Matt and Doug discuss a reported US–Iran peace deal whose MOU hasn't been released, doubting it will last due to Israel–Iran hostility and Israeli opposition, while arguing the US bombing of Iran was unnecessary and that the deal looks like a US surrender with potential reparations (estimated $300B) and possible UAE/private funding plus future service fees after 60 days. They then focus on provisions in the NDAA (Section 219) and an Intelligence Authorization Act measure (Sen. Tom Cotton) that would fuse US–Israel military and intelligence programs, outlining six harms: inability to stop unwanted wars, technology leakage (AI/quantum) possibly to China, US contractors losing business, Gaza-tested AI targeting tools entering US systems, Israeli espionage risks, and irreversible entanglement by FY2027. The conversation also covers Trump's credibility, government involvement in AI companies and energy-hungry data centers, China's open-source AI stance, IMF conditional lending in Papua New Guinea, rising authoritarian security policies in Peru, and broader fears of global conflict. 00:00 Iran US Peace Deal 01:08 Why Bomb Iran 02:31 Israel Leverage Theories 04:21 China Oil Shock Absorber 06:58 Trump Character Spin 10:02 Reparations And Tolls 11:18 Israel Lebanon Sticking Point 12:21 Israel As 51st State 14:59 Six Ways It Hurts 21:36 USS Liberty And AIPAC 24:32 AI Data Centers Bubble 28:24 AI As Strategic Weapon 33:42 World War Three Thesis 36:31 IMF In Papua New Guinea 39:48 Peru Fujimori Crackdown 43:47 Authoritarian Trend Fears 45:44 Hopeful Wrap And Outlook
In October 2022, the British economy was in freefall. Liz Truss's mini-budget had sent the pound into a nosedive, mortgage rates were climbing at a terrifying speed, and the IMF had issued a public warning to the government to reverse course. It was, by any measure, a national crisis.Into that emergency stepped Sir Jeremy Hunt who, over a single weekend, dismantled almost the entirety of the economic programme he'd inherited.But that was just the latest chapter in a political career defined again and again by an extraordinary capacity to absorb difficulty and get on with the job. All while managing a private grief that would have broken most people in any role, let alone one of the most demanding in the country. The loss of his father, mother, and brother, all lost to cancer.His new book, Can We Be Rich Again? The Surprising Potential of Britain's Economy, is an act of deliberate optimism in a country that has largely forgotten how to be optimistic. Sir Jeremy Hunt joins Andy Coulson for a conversation about loss, resilience, reputation, and what it really takes to keep your nerve when everything is falling apart.POWERED BY KINGSLEY NAPLEYI know what it is to have the right legal support around you when facing a crisis. Kingsley Napley are the kind of lawyers I wish more people knew about – there to help you make the right decisions, protect what matters, and build real resilience when the pressure is on.This episode is powered by Kingsley Napley. Visit www.kingsleynapley.co.uk for more details.FOUR LESSONS FROM JEREMY:Start a business in your 20s if you possibly can. You've got no mortgage, no kids, no dependents – it doesn't matter if things go wrong, and you'll learn more from failure than you ever will from success.You can cope with one thing going wrong. It's when two or three things go wrong at once that life gets really hard – so close down the smaller crisis as fast as you can, even if that means caving in.The most important thing any leader can build is a team that will tell you when you're wrong. If people are afraid to speak truth to power, you will make bad decisions.Grief gives you something a successful career can't: a sense of what actually matters.CHAPTERS03:34 – Why naive goals are sometimes the most powerful ones05:20 – His father's greatest lesson07:50 – The tragedy his family never spoke about10:35 – What unconditional belief from a parent actually does to a child13:37 – Why failure in your 20s is an asset, not a setback17:07 – Why business and politics require completely different skills22:11 – Starting a business with your best friend26:43 – The junior doctors dispute30:09 – How to survive being the most unpopular politician in the country33:01 – Losing his brother Charlie: what grief teaches you that success never can36:56 – Walking into the eye of the storm as Chancellor40:59 – How to restore trust when trust is the only thing that matters44:20 – Why knowing who you are is the foundation of every crisis skill worth having44:59 – Why Britain thinks far worse of itself than the rest of the world doesBUY JEREMY'S BOOKCan We Be Rich Again? The Surprising Potential of Britain's Economy – pick up a copy here: https://shorturl.at/DfIZaFOLLOW JEREMY HUNTInstagram – https://www.instagram.com/jeremyhuntmp/TikTok – https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyrshuntmpX – https://x.com/Jeremy_HuntLinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeremyhuntuk/FOLLOW CRISIS WHAT CRISIS?Instagram – www.instagram.com/crisiswhatcrisispodcastTikTok – www.tiktok.com/@crisispodThis was a Crisis What Crisis Production – Rex Fisher (producer), Ioana Barbu (studio manager), James Quinn (research), Johnny Seifert (audio), Jasper Cullen (video)
Is it Finally Time to Restructure Venezuela's Debt? Ever since Venezuela was allowed to hire advisors on its debt restructuring, rumors have been swirling about whether the restructuring might be attempted even before an IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. Such a scenario is plausible, given the current context. But is it good for the Venezuelan people? Hell no. This is potentially going to be the most complicated debt restructuring in history. And it is going to be done without the involvement of the only competent institution (despite our frequent criticisms of it) in this space? In prior eras, we'd count on the US Treasury Department to insist on IMF oversight and active involvement. But can we count on that today? Producer: Leanna Doty
We take a closer look at the headlines surrounding Peter Thiel's reported move to Argentina and ask whether one of Silicon Valley's most influential billionaires is really relocating, or simply spending a few years abroad while maintaining the ability to move wherever he chooses.We explore why Argentina has become a magnet for libertarian investors and political figures, the relationship between Peter Thiel and President Javier Milei, and what it means when wealthy elites begin looking beyond the United States for opportunity, security, or influence.The conversation then widens to Argentina's long-running economic crisis. We examine the country's complicated relationship with international lenders, including the World Bank and IMF, and discuss a recurring pattern in Argentine politics: conservative governments often receive substantial international financial support, only to struggle with debt, inflation, and economic management, while left-wing governments frequently face tighter access to international credit and their own economic constraints.Is Argentina a free-market success story in the making, a cautionary tale of economic dependency, or simply the latest destination for globally mobile elites? And what does Peter Thiel's presence say about the future of wealth, power, and national loyalty in an increasingly interconnected world?Join us for a wide-ranging discussion on billionaires, economic policy, international finance, and the enduring challenge of building prosperity in Argentina.SubstackPatreonWebsiteBooksTwitterTikTok
Increased trade integration between economic superpowers shaped our globalized world, but that world we've known for the past three decades is becoming increasingly fragmented. What happens to those trade relationships when countries disengage? Michele Ruta is the IMF expert on trade and global imbalances. In this podcast, he says even strategic rivals can benefit from trade cooperation. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4ebXDW0 Read the article in Finance & Development magazine. IMF.org/FANDD
May inflation dips slightly. New SME land scheme. No new IMF program? You can read the third issue of Money Matters on the website. Morning Drive is your daily download of the essential headlines shaping Egypt. From business policy and finance to the latest in tech, all in under 10 minutes. Hosted by ‘Synthetic Salma’ — an AI-powered version of our own Executive Editor Salma El-Saeed. Morning Drive is brought to you by: Madinet Masr GRANITE Financial Holding Bonyan for Real Estate Investments And check out our other show Making It, where we speak to CEOs and entrepreneurs about building a great business in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This episode follows a wide-ranging panel convened at Stanford's King Center on Global Development, featuring Gyude Moore, as well as Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman, former USAID Administrator and Ambassador Mark Green, and Chair and Founder of the Liquidity and Sustainability Facility Vera Songwe - The future of global development: Approaches and partnerships for a new reality.Bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa will fall by between 16% and 28% this year, according to the IMF. In past downturns, multilateral and humanitarian funding tended to fill the gap when bilateral aid dropped. This time those channels are shrinking too.Gyude Moore, who ran the Liberian President's Delivery Unit under Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, thinks the contraction is structural rather than a passing effect of the Trump administration, and that recipient countries should stop expecting the old arrangement to return. He wants economic growth put at the centre of development rather than treated as one programme among several. Instead of letting donors decide which programmes are run, he says, countries should run a growth diagnostic: a way of identifying the two or three constraints doing most to hold an economy back. Governments can then reorganise their budgets around removing those constraints, and use the diagnostic to decide which offers of aid to take and which to turn down. Moore calls this “sovereignty through analytics”. Aid was meant to be temporary, he argues, and the job now is to quickly reach the point of not needing it.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and W. Gyude Moore. 2026. "The end of aid dependency.” VoxDev Talks (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestW. Gyude Moore is a distinguished fellow at the Energy for Growth Hub and a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development. He was Liberia's minister of public works from December 2014 to January 2018, and before that deputy chief of staff to President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and head of the President's Delivery Unit, which oversaw more than $1 billion of road, power and port projects in a country rebuilding after civil war. He also lectures at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy. His work covers African infrastructure, energy, industrial policy and development finance.Cited in this episodeThe scale of the cuts. The IMF's October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, using OECD figures, projects bilateral aid to the region falling by 16% to 28% in 2025, with more cuts likely. Moore says the cuts to multilateral and humanitarian funding run higher again, and that the most aid-dependent countries have been hit hardest, through weaker health, education and nutrition systems.Growth diagnostics. A way of finding the constraints that matter most: the one or two that, once removed, allow others to ease. Moore likens it to a doctor running tests before prescribing. The method is associated with the Growth Lab at Harvard. He suggests governments hire an independent party to run the analysis, so the findings cannot be dismissed as political.The Millennium Challenge Corporation. A US agency that runs what it calls a constraints analysis, then funds the removal of the constraint it finds. Moore offers it as an existing model for diagnostic-led aid, while noting that it has critics.Sovereignty through analytics. Moore's phrase for using a credible diagnostic to set the terms with donors. A government can say what it is trying to do, ask for help where it needs it, and decline what does not fit. He points to Ghana, Zambia and Zimbabwe rejecting or walking away from US health agreements under the America First Global Health Strategy as evidence that recipient governments now have that leverage and are willing to use it.The Development Alliance. Liberia's attempt, around 2014 and 2015, to bring every donor and NGO into one room to map who was doing what, spot duplication and find the sectors nobody was covering. Moore's assessment: useful, but voluntary, not written into law, and not built around a single diagnostic. His conclusion is that such a framework should be put on a legal footing.Five-year plans. Moore, who teaches in China each autumn, points to the discipline that fixed planning periods impose, and argues that legislation can do a similar job of holding a development strategy steady across changes of government.Delivery units. Small teams set up to push complex projects through where the wider bureaucracy cannot. Moore ran one in the Liberian presidency and calls them islands of competence; he offers them as a way around weak implementation.The European politics of aid. Moore's reason for thinking the window may close. Nativist parties are gaining ground across Europe, from the AfD to Reform UK to the PVV in the Netherlands, and an ageing population will pull more public money homeward. Countries that do not adjust, he warns, may find the external funding gone.
Sel korral arutasime, mis võis põhjustada musta börsireedet. Samuti tuli juttu SpaceX, OpenAI ja Anthropic IPO plaanidest ning IMF ja OECD murest Eesti riigirahanduse pärast. Kas ees ootab uus maksufestival? Saate tegid LHV investorkogukonna juht Nelli Janson ja makroanalüütik Triinu Tapver. Kirjuta meile aadressil turutegijad@lhv.ee. Finantsteenuseid pakub AS LHV Pank. Tutvu finantsteenuste tingimustega aadressil www.lhv.ee ja küsi nõu meie asjatundjalt. Podcastis esitatud seisukohad on informatiivsed ja ei ole mõeldud soovitusena müüa või osta mainitud väärtpabereid. AS LHV Pank ei vastuta teabe põhjal tehtud otsuste eest. Investeerimine on seotud võimaluste ja riskidega, väärtpaberite turuväärtus võib nii kasvada kui ka kahaneda. Välisturgudel võivad tootlust mõjutada valuutakursside kõikumised. Võimalike kajastatud väärtpaberite ja finantsindeksite eelmiste või tulevaste perioodide tootlus ei tähenda lubadust ega viidet järgmiste perioodide tootluse kohta. Investeerimisotsuste tegemisel kasuta ametlikku informatsiooni väärtpaberi kohta, tutvudes iseseisvalt riskide ja tingimustega. Esitatud teave on informatiivse eesmärgiga ning ei ole vaadeldav investeerimisanalüüsina ega mõeldud soovitusena müüa või osta mainitud väärtpabereid. LHV ei vastuta teabe põhjal tehtud otsuste eest. Investeerimine on seotud võimaluste ja riskidega, väärtpaberite turuväärtus võib nii kasvada kui ka kahaneda. Välisturgudel võivad tootlust mõjutada valuutakursside kõikumised. Eelpool kajastatud väärtpaberite ja finantsindeksite eelmiste või tulevaste perioodide tootlus ei tähenda lubadust ega viidet järgmiste perioodide tootluse kohta.
Sel korral arutasime, mis võis põhjustada musta börsireedet. Samuti tuli juttu SpaceX, OpenAI ja Anthropic IPO plaanidest ning IMF ja OECD murest Eesti riigirahanduse pärast. Kas ees ootab uus maksufestival?Saate tegid LHV investorkogukonna juht Nelli Janson ja makroanalüütik Triinu Tapver.Kirjuta meile aadressil turutegijad@lhv.ee.Finantsteenuseid pakub AS LHV Pank. Tutvu finantsteenuste tingimustega aadressil www.lhv.ee ja küsi nõu meie asjatundjalt. Podcastis esitatud seisukohad on informatiivsed ja ei ole mõeldud soovitusena müüa või osta mainitud väärtpabereid. AS LHV Pank ei vastuta teabe põhjal tehtud otsuste eest. Investeerimine on seotud võimaluste ja riskidega, väärtpaberite turuväärtus võib nii kasvada kui ka kahaneda. Välisturgudel võivad tootlust mõjutada valuutakursside kõikumised. Võimalike kajastatud väärtpaberite ja finantsindeksite eelmiste või tulevaste perioodide tootlus ei tähenda lubadust ega viidet järgmiste perioodide tootluse kohta. Investeerimisotsuste tegemisel kasuta ametlikku informatsiooni väärtpaberi kohta, tutvudes iseseisvalt riskide ja tingimustega.Esitatud teave on informatiivse eesmärgiga ning ei ole vaadeldav investeerimisanalüüsina ega mõeldud soovitusena müüa või osta mainitud väärtpabereid. LHV ei vastuta teabe põhjal tehtud otsuste eest. Investeerimine on seotud võimaluste ja riskidega, väärtpaberite turuväärtus võib nii kasvada kui ka kahaneda. Välisturgudel võivad tootlust mõjutada valuutakursside kõikumised. Eelpool kajastatud väärtpaberite ja finantsindeksite eelmiste või tulevaste perioodide tootlus ei tähenda lubadust ega viidet järgmiste perioodide tootluse kohta.
Asusun bada lamuni na duniya IMF ya ce sauye-sauyen da gwamnatin Najeriya ke yi na ƙarfafa tattalin arzikin ƙasar, sai dai kuma sun haifar da ƙarin ƴan Najeriya sama da miliyan 60 da suka faɗa cikin talauci. Ku danna alamar saurare domin jin tattaunawar Bashir Ibrahim Idris, da masanin tattalin arziki a Najeriya Samaila Abdullahi Muhammad kan wannan batu.
In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop sits down with software engineer and entrepreneur Arowolo Muritadhor for a wide-ranging conversation that moves from agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria to the evolving role of crypto in the country's economy. They touch on how hyperinflation, particularly the naira's dramatic drop in 2023, pushed Nigerians toward stablecoins as a practical savings tool, and how informal kiosk networks have stepped in where traditional banking infrastructure falls short. The conversation also covers the tension between government regulation and the permissionless nature of blockchain technology, comparisons between the decline of the Roman Empire and current shifts in US economic dominance, the role of mobile payments in Africa, language learning, and whether AI agents have any real utility in crypto infrastructure yet. You can connect with Arowolo on LinkedIn and X at @armolas_06.Timestamps00:00 - Host welcomes Arowolo Muritadhor, introducing topics of software engineering and animal food production in Nigeria.05:00 - Discussion shifts to manufacturing, components assembly, and China's dominance in low-cost production globally.10:00 - Conversation explores crypto adoption in Nigeria as a network state phenomenon, separating informed users from mainstream population.15:00 - Mobile payments and kiosk ATM replacements emerge as critical financial infrastructure bridging unbanked Nigerians.20:00 - Roman Empire parallels drawn to modern crypto taxation, government control, and inevitable death-and-taxes reality.25:00 - Bitcoin and Ethereum permissionless nature debated against government wallet-level censorship vulnerabilities.30:00 - AI agents examined as crypto infrastructure tools, revealing mostly trading bots rather than foundational builders.35:00 - Nigeria's 2023 naira collapse compared to Argentina's hyperinflation, driving citizens toward stablecoin dollar savings.40:00 - US Treasury history unpacked through FDR gold confiscation and Nixon ending convertibility, paralleling empire decline.45:00 - Crypto reframed as anti-bank rather than purely anti-government, enabling freedom through immutable accountability.50:00 - Transparent blockchain ledgers discussed as potential government accountability tools across democracy, republic, and oligarchy structures.Key Insights1. Nigeria has a significant divide between its northern and southern regions in terms of economic activity. The north, centered around Abuja, is more agricultural with substantial cattle production, while Lagos in the south functions as a dense urban and commercial hub. This geographic and economic split shapes how different financial tools and technologies are adopted across the country.2. China's dominance in low-cost manufacturing has made it nearly impossible for countries like Nigeria, the United States, or Argentina to compete on price alone. The more realistic path for developing economies is to import components and focus on local assembly and creativity, which is where meaningful economic participation becomes possible.3. Crypto adoption in Nigeria accelerated dramatically around 2023 when the naira experienced a sharp devaluation against the US dollar. Before that point, saving in dollars was difficult for many Nigerians, especially those without formal bank accounts, making stablecoins like USDT an attractive and practical alternative for preserving wealth.4. Informal kiosk operators in Nigeria have organically become a substitute for ATMs, giving communities access to basic financial services where traditional banking infrastructure does not reach. This grassroots financial layer is now a key entry point for integrating crypto and stablecoin payments into everyday commerce.5. Governments are increasingly trying to regulate crypto at the wallet and centralized exchange level, using tax compliance as a primary mechanism. While Bitcoin and Ethereum remain largely permissionless, the practical chokepoints for most users remain centralized platforms where identity and transactions can be monitored.6. The historical parallel between the fall of the Roman Empire and current shifts in US economic and geopolitical power offers a useful frame for understanding why crypto matters. Just as Rome debased its currency and struggled to sustain imperial costs, the US faces mounting debt and a financialized economy that may accelerate dollar instability and push more people toward alternative stores of value.7. One genuinely constructive use case for blockchain beyond speculation is immutable accountability, particularly for public institutions and prediction markets. A transparent ledger that governments or officials voluntarily adopt could create verifiable records of decisions and promises, reducing corruption and increasing trust in ways that traditional governance structures have struggled to achieve.
China has ample room to expand the global use of renminbi through trade and commodity settlement, supply chain finance and offshore market development, senior economists said, adding that the process will be gradual and largely hinges on continuing financial market reforms across the globe.经济学家表示,中国在通过贸易和大宗商品结算、供应链金融以及离岸市场发展来扩大人民币全球使用方面拥有充足空间。他们指出,这一过程将是渐进的,并在很大程度上取决于全球金融市场的持续改革。As the existing US dollar-dominated architecture sees an erosion of global trust and buckles under the strains of geopolitical conflict and the weaponization of financial infrastructure by some countries, the internationalization of the renminbi will help make the global monetary system more inclusive and resilient, they said.他们认为,在当前以美元为主导的体系面临全球信任侵蚀,并在地缘政治冲突和部分国家将金融基础设施武器化的压力下举步维艰之际,人民币国际化将有助于构建一个更加包容和更具韧性的全球货币体系。In an exclusive interview with China Daily, Zhu Min, former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the trend of renminbi internationalization is “unstoppable”, and the technical pathway is “already mapped out”.国际货币基金组织前副总裁朱民在接受《中国日报》专访时表示,人民币国际化的趋势“不可阻挡”,技术路径“已经铺就”。Zhu pushed back against a long-held assumption that the renminbi could not become a major international currency without full convertibility and a fully liberalized capital account. “We need to correct this old mindset,” he said.朱民反驳了一种长期存在的假设,即人民币在没有实现完全可兑换和资本账户完全自由化的情况下,不可能成为主要的国际货币。“我们需要纠正这种旧的思维定式,”他说。He pointed to the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket, a collection of five major international currencies that gives the renminbi a 12.48 percent weighting after the dollar and the euro, as proof that such constraints are not necessarily insurmountable.他援引国际货币基金组织特别提款权货币篮子为例,该篮子由五种主要国际货币构成,人民币以12.48%的权重位列美元和欧元之后。他认为,这证明了上述制约因素并非不可逾越。Expanding the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade settlement serves as a viable and crucial pathway toward its further internationalization, experts said.专家表示,扩大人民币在跨境贸易结算中的使用,是其进一步国际化的可行且关键路径。“For a currency to become truly global, settlement is a critical gateway,” said Miao Yanliang, chief strategist at China International Capital Corp. “And in that respect, China‘s trade leverage is growing.”中国国际金融股份有限公司首席策略师缪延亮表示:“一种货币要真正实现国际化,结算是一个关键门户。在这方面,中国的贸易优势正在不断增强。”Miao noted that China is the world's largest trading nation and largest crude oil importer, as well as a dominant consumer of copper, iron ore and soybeans. “That trade position gives China a unique advantage to gradually enhance the convenience and acceptance of renminbi settlement,” he added.他指出,中国是全球最大的贸易国和最大的原油进口国,也是铜、铁矿石和大豆的主要消费国。“这种贸易地位赋予了中国独特的优势,可以逐步提高人民币结算的便利性和接受度,”他补充道。In recent years, geopolitical shifts have accelerated the renminbi‘s adoption, with some commodity sellers increasingly exploring settling trade in renminbi.近年来,地缘政治的变化加速了人民币的使用,一些大宗商品卖家越来越多地探索使用人民币进行贸易结算。The recent disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted vulnerabilities in the existing dollar-centric oil trading system, said Shi Kang, chair professor at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University.清华大学国家金融研究院副院长、五道口金融学院讲席教授施康表示,近期霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻事件,凸显了当前以美元为中心的石油交易体系的脆弱性。“In the coming period, we will see more oil trade settlement gradually shift away from the existing dollar-based system,” Shi said.“在未来一段时间,我们将看到更多的石油贸易结算逐渐从现有的美元体系中转移出去,”施康说。Beyond trade settlement, Zhu, the former IMF official, noted that strengthening the renminbi's role as a “financing tool in global supply chains” would also bolster its international standing.除了贸易结算,前国际货币基金组织官员朱民指出,加强人民币作为“全球供应链融资工具”的作用也将提升其国际地位。China accounts for nearly one-third of global manufacturing output, equaling the combined share of the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea, yet its currency plays only a modest role in international finance, Zhu said, describing this as “a clear mismatch”.朱民表示,中国占全球制造业产出的近三分之一,相当于美国、日本、德国和韩国的总和,但人民币在国际金融中仅扮演着温和的角色,他将此形容为“一个明显的不匹配”。“The US' real economy has weakened, but it still underpins an enormous dollar system,” he said. “Geo-economic shifts inevitably drive changes in finance and beyond.”“美国的实体经济已经疲软,但它仍然支撑着一个庞大的美元体系,”他说。“地缘经济的变化必然推动金融及其他领域的变革。”A stronger renminbi is not only an inevitable choice for China‘s development, but also a necessity for global financial stability, Zhu stressed, saying that the renminbi could be used more extensively within global supply chains to align with China's manufacturing strength.朱民强调,更强势的人民币不仅是中国发展的必然选择,也是全球金融稳定的需要。他表示,人民币可以在全球供应链中更广泛地使用,以与中国制造业的实力相匹配。For a currency to become truly internationally strong, Zhu said, it must not only be usable for cross-border transactions, but also be held as a store of value and eventually repatriated or reinvested, all of which requires deep bond markets, robust derivatives markets and a liquid offshore market.他表示,一种货币要真正成为国际强势货币,不仅必须能用于跨境交易,还必须能作为价值储藏手段被持有,并最终能够回流或再投资,这一切都需要有深度的债券市场、稳健的衍生品市场和流动性充裕的离岸市场。Miao, from China International Capital Corp, suggested that China could increase the supply of offshore renminbi, including expanding the availability of government bonds and high-grade renminbi-denominated bonds, to provide global investors with secure renminbi holdings and to support the domestic economy.中金公司的缪延亮建议,中国可以增加离岸人民币的供给,包括增加政府债券和高等级人民币债券的可获得性,从而为全球投资者提供安全的人民币资产,并支持国内经济。In another development, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 84 billion yuan ($12.4 billion) of renminbi-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong this year. The first two issues, totaling 29.5 billion yuan, were made in February and April.另一方面,中国财政部计划今年在香港发行总计840亿元人民币(约合124亿美元)的主权债券。其中,前两期共计295亿元人民币的债券已于今年2月和4月发行。The world is facing an urgent need for more diversified safe-haven assets and liquidity, said Shi, from Tsinghua University.清华大学的施康表示,世界迫切需要更多元化的避险资产和流动性。That is a gap that the renminbi, backed by China‘s proactive institutional opening-up, is increasingly positioned to fill, Shi added.他补充说,在中国积极主动的制度型开放支持下,人民币正日益能够填补这一空白。“We do not want to replace the dollar system, nor are we trying to develop a separate system,” Shi said. “China's goal is to address the weak links in the current monetary system, allowing more currencies to participate and thus enhance global financial stability.”“我们不想取代美元体系,也不是要建立一个独立的体系,”施康说。“中国的目标是解决当前货币体系中的薄弱环节,让更多货币参与进来,从而增强全球金融稳定。”Marc Uzan, executive director of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, said that central banks are diversifying reserves, more energy deals are being priced in nondollar currencies, and countries are settling trade in local currencies. However, he acknowledged that the dollar‘s structural advantages remain significant, and “a swift end to dollar hegemony is unlikely”.重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事马克·乌赞表示,各国央行正在多元化其储备,更多能源交易正以非美元货币定价,各国也在使用本币进行贸易结算。不过,他也承认,美元的结构性优势依然显著,“美元霸权不太可能迅速终结”。He said he expects a multipolar future in which the dollar, euro and renminbi will each play a larger role, alongside regional currencies.他表示,他预计未来将出现一个多极化的格局,美元、欧元和人民币将与区域性货币一道,各自发挥更大的作用。external coercion /ɪkˈstɜːnəl kəʊˈɜːʒən/外部胁迫dominant consumer /ˈdɒmɪnənt kənˈsjuːmə/主要消费国PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University /piː biː siː/清华大学五道口金融学院financing tool /ˈfaɪnænsɪŋ tuːl/融资工具manufacturing output /ˌmænjʊˈfæktʃərɪŋ ˈaʊtpʊt/制造业产出geo-economic shifts /ˈdʒiːəʊ iːkəˈnɒmɪk ʃɪfts/地缘经济变化store of value /stɔːr əv ˈvæljuː/价值储藏/保值手段Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee /ˌriːɪnˈventɪŋ ˈbretən wʊdz kəˈmɪti/重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会
Is legacy aid a fiat trap? See how unbanked communities use a Bitcoin standard and circular economy networks to achieve sustainable development. We recorded this episode right from the beach in El Zonte, El Salvador, following the conclusion of our global Bitcoin circular economy summit. Leaders from all over the world came into town to show how they are bypassing corporate charities and corrupt state infrastructure. It was incredibly humbling to sit down with three of these absolute warriors to hear how they are driving a true grassroots movement for monetary freedom on the absolute front lines of global hyperbitcoinization.First, I catch up with Pedro (@btcdominicana) from Bitcoin Dominicana, who is proving that you do not need IMF approval or a legacy bank account to build a self-sustaining circular economy. He shares updates on his amazing work in Santo Domingo and the surrounding mountains, including the launch of the very first Bitcoin-only hotel in the Dominican Republic. We talk about how a cash society with a massive unbanked population is actually the perfect environment to ditch fiat entirely. Pedro explains why starting small with close community development beats trying to launch in a massive city all at once, and how digital payments are helping local agricultural communities protect their hard-earned wealth from state inflation.Next up is Aaronman (@plebstogether) from Bitcoin Beach Goa and Plebs Together Strong, who is battling the massive wave of shitcoin noise and crypto affinity fraud slowing down adoption in India. India is historically a massive hub for sound money like gold, but the mainstream corporate media narrative has left the younger demographic completely blind to true financial education. We discuss how his team is tapping into this massive tech-savvy youth population to build local sovereign infrastructure, create remote freelance opportunities to earn Bitcoin online, and open up direct remittance corridors that bypass greedy middlemen to foster sustainable development back in local villages.Finally, I sit down with Valentin Popescu (@MotivPeru) from Motiv Peru to look at how a pure Bitcoin standard completely obliterates the necessity of legacy international humanitarian aid. Valentin and his team are operating across fifteen different sites spanning the coast, the Andes, and the deep Amazon jungle, proving that opt-in money is the ultimate tool for genuine empowerment. Families are using sats every single day for English classes, entrepreneurship programs, and even to buy clean water from a community well funded entirely by the project. We also talk about their massive Copa Bitcoin surf competition in Huanchaco and how they connected local youth culture with global tourism.This episode is all the proof you need that a peer-to-peer monetary standard is not a far-off dream, it has already been put into action by the places that need it most. If you want to support these communities and stay updated on the global monetary revolution, go ahead and hit that subscribe button, leave us a review, and share this episode with a fellow pleb. Let us know in the comments which of these projects you plan on visiting first, just make sure you pack your surfboard or brush up on your Merengue steps before you hop on the plane.—Bitcoin Beach TeamLearn more about the guests:X(Aaronman): https://x.com/plebstogether X(Valentin Popescu): https://x.com/MotivPeru X(Pedro Vital): https://x.com/btcdominicanaSupport and follow Bitcoin Beach:X: https://www.twitter.com/BitcoinBeach IG: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinbeach_sv TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@livefrombitcoinbeach Web: https://www.bitcoinbeach.com Browse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:00:00 Intro00:53 Can you buy real estate and pay for hotels with Bitcoin?02:14 How do unbanked countries use Bitcoin without traditional banks?03:13 What happens when a cash and barter society adopts Bitcoin?04:40 How to teach financial literacy and Bitcoin to illiterate communities?07:18 Is Bitcoin fixing central banking and corporate financial corruption?13:28 Why is crypto a scam while Bitcoin is a real asset?15:52 How to bypass legacy banks and get paid in Bitcoin remotely?22:58 What are the best real-world utility and humanitarian use cases for Bitcoin?26:45 Can local sports tournaments drive organic cryptocurrency adoption?Live From Bitcoin Beach
CannCon and Ashe in America open Chapter 5 of G. Edward Griffin's The Creature from Jekyll Island and the bailout game goes global. The 1944 Bretton Woods Conference gets a full autopsy: the IMF and World Bank were designed by Fabian socialists and a communist spy, Harry Dexter White, to eliminate gold from international finance and build world socialism one loan at a time. The Federal Reserve is no longer just America's lender of last resort. It is the planet's. SDRs get exposed as bookkeeping wizardry backed by nothing. Nixon's 1971 gold decoupling gets its proper context. And the World Bank's humanitarian branding gets stripped away as the crew walks through regime after regime, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Vietnam, all receiving billions while committing atrocities their own governments openly planned. George Bernard Shaw, Fabian co-founder, gets quoted explaining exactly what socialism does to people who are not productive enough to justify their existence. The IMF opposes Bitcoin. CannCon and Ashe are not surprised.
State-owned enterprises have long been viewed by economists as a bad idea due to proven inefficiencies and mismanagement. But is handing over key resources and industries to the private sector really the answer? Economic historian Nicholas Mulder says, with all the geopolitical risks in the world of late, governments are looking for ways to keep essential resources under their control. Mulder is a professor of history at Cornell University. His article The New Wave of Nationalization was published in the June issue of Finance & Development magazine. In this podcast, Rhoda Metcalfe and Nicholas Mulder discuss the potential and risks of rising government ownership. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4wYy0R0 Read the article in Finance & Development magazine: IMF.org/fandd
SWR is back with a new episode and this week we welcome in Felix Jones! Felix talks with us about the early days of IMF, Training with Pro Wrestling Storm, his mount rushmore, favorite moments and much more! Follow Felix Facebook: [https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?...](https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbnNfMmJVcWVWaHpBYm1GOVdtN09tQ094MUhNQXxBQ3Jtc0tuUVRLTVBMaXJHWE1YMlRJYmdJeXU0Q0NWMDlOcFdzdWJJSGowQ2NJbWt2bUtFQXlpUFBLRmRSeG82a0NheDFDVHl4RGtJSU5sNnRGVGpEd2NXZV9FeUZnTEZVaTJoUlE2M3Q1dmhtS0RMVTZ2XzVvQQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fprofile.php%3Fid%3D61583116686154&v=5s_UF84qkX4)
As the brutal conflict continues, Ukraine is fighting a war on multiple fronts—not just in the trenches, but internally within the corridors of power against a long-standing weapon of Kremlin information warfare: the accusation of irredeemable corruption. In this episode, hosts Saul David and Julius Strauss sit down in Kyiv with Andrii Borovyk, the executive director of Transparency International Ukraine, for a brutally honest assessment of where the country stands today. Borovyk pulls back the curtain on the Global Corruption Perception Index, exploring how Ukraine remarkably managed to stabilize and even improve its score during wartime—a feat virtually unheard of for a nation in conflict. The conversation dives deep into the high-stakes friction between wartime efficiency and democratic transparency, covering: The Reality of the Index: Exactly where Ukraine sits globally, how its score compares to neighbours like Hungary and Slovakia, and why the metric is about external perception rather than a direct measurement of ground-level corruption. The High-Stakes U-Turn: The dramatic, late-night political maneuvering surrounding a controversial bill aimed at bringing anti-corruption agencies under political control, the ensuing public protests, and the resulting erosion of international trust. Watchdogging under Fire: How Transparency International Ukraine operates on the policy and legislative levels, saves millions for the state budget through public procurement monitoring, and the institutional distrust surrounding agencies like the State Bureau of Investigations. The Leadership Report Card: A candid evaluation of Ukrainian leadership—from Yanukovych to Poroshenko and Zelenskyy—in their historical and current fights against corruption. The Path Forward: The heavy influence of international leverage (like the EU and IMF) on pushing reforms forward, and a sobering look at Ukraine's post-war future, demographic challenges, and shifting immigration needs. Julius Strauss writes the blog Back from the Front and also owns and runs Wild Bear Lodge, a bear-viewing lodge, in Canada. Check out both in the links below:Substack: https://backfromthefront.substack.com/Wild Bear Lodge: https://wildbearlodge.ca/Join the Conversation: If you have a question about the war in Ukraine or any of the conflicts we cover, email us at podbattleground@gmail.comFollow us on:X - @PodBattlegroundInstagram - podbattlegroundProducer: James HodgsonA Goalhanger Podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bitcoin werd ooit bedacht als geld zonder baas. Geen centrale bank die kan bijdrukken, geen overheid die je rekening kan bevriezen, geen tussenpersoon die een transactie kan weigeren. Onder de noemer freedom money groeide daar een hele beweging omheen: het idee dat Bitcoin een uitweg biedt voor mensen die vastzitten in een falend financieel systeem. In deze Deep Dive pakken we die belofte erbij en kijken we wat er nog van overeind staat. Eerst de basis. Wat betekent freedom money eigenlijk, en is Bitcoin überhaupt geld? Veronique Estié en Bert Slagter helpen de begrippen scherp te krijgen en leggen uit waarom dit een van de oorspronkelijke gedachten achter cryptovaluta was. Want de problemen waar Bitcoin een antwoord op zou zijn, zijn concreet: hyperinflatie waarbij spaargeld in maanden verdampt, financiële uitsluiting van wie geen bankrekening krijgt, en kapitaalcontroles die je vermogen binnen de landsgrenzen opsluiten. Bert schetst hoe leven met hyperinflatie er in de praktijk uitziet. Daarna gaan we de techniek in. Welke eigenschappen van Bitcoin maken het geschikt als freedom money, en welke daarvan zijn echt verankerd in het protocol in plaats van in het verhaal eromheen? We staan stil bij de vraag of pseudonimiteit, Bitcoin is immers niet anoniem, een zwakke plek is. Ook de koersschommelingen komen langs, net als de dominante rol van centrale exchanges en de positie van miners die transacties zouden kunnen censureren. Het verhaal is de afgelopen jaren afgezwakt, en dat heeft een naam: stablecoins. Munten gekoppeld aan de dollar nemen een deel van de functies over. We bespreken welke dat zijn en welke juist niet, hoe Tether verschilt van een bank, en of de usecase voor Bitcoin daardoor heel klein wordt. Daarbij komen ook de digitale centralebankmunt en de vraag waarom privacycoins het nooit echt hebben gemaakt aan bod. En dan de praktijk. Waar wordt Bitcoin nu daadwerkelijk als freedom money gebruikt, van Iran en Rusland tot de Venezolaanse oppositie? We halen ook voorbeelden uit het verleden erbij, zoals de Canadese truckers en El Salvador, dat Bitcoin in 2025 onder druk van het IMF zijn status als wettig betaalmiddel weer afnam. Tot slot de blik vooruit: gaat Bitcoin het redden als freedom money, of is die strijd allang verloren, en maakt dat eigenlijk uit? Co-hosts zijn Veronique Estié en Bert Slagter. Over de podcast Cryptocurrency are here to stay. In deze wekelijkse podcast gidst Daniel Mol je door het belangrijkste cryptonieuws, langs hypes en trends, voor- en tegenstanders en winst en verlies. In het A-deel bespreken we het laatste nieuws en in het B-deel gaan we in gesprek met een gast. Van cypherpunkpioneers tot grootbanken die aan de haal gaan met stablecoins, van Bitcoin tot Ethereum tot CBDC's. Alles passeert de revue. Reageren? Stuur dan een mail naar cryptocast@bnr.nl Gasten Veronique Estié is oprichter van Young Trader en columniste bij De Financiële Telegraaf. Bert Slagter is analist bij kennisplatform Bitcoin Alpha. Links HRF-essay van Alex Gladstein over waarom Bitcoin freedom money is Hoe Venezolanen Bitcoin gebruiken tegen hyperinflatie en kapitaalcontroles El Salvador schrapt status Bitcoin als wettig betaalmiddel onder IMF-druk Host Daniel Mol is presentator en redacteur van de Cryptocast. Hij is sinds 2017 met Bitcoin bezig en kwam in 2021 bij het team van de Cryptocast. Redactie Daniel Mol Matthijs Damsteeg See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
When Tanzania gained independence in 1961, Julius Nyerere saw publishing as a key part of decolonization and nation-building. In 1966, he founded the Tanzania Publishing House (TPH), putting state publishing at the center of building national identity and culture, and of bringing people together through language.Tanzania's influence grew throughout the 1970s and 1980s. During this period, Dar es Salaam served as the headquarters for several Southern African liberation movements, such as FRELIMO, SWAPO, and the ANC. TPH was central in this era, publishing and distributing anti-imperialist works like Walter Rodney's How Europe Underdeveloped Africa, Agostinho Neto's Sacred Hope, Samora Machel's Establishing People's Power to Serve the Masses, and Issa Shivji's Class Struggle in Tanzania.Integral to TPH's influence during these years was Walter Bgoya, who served as managing director from 1972 to 1990 and played a major role in making TPH and Dar es Salaam a center for progressive intellectuals from around the world. His leadership was instrumental in shaping the publishing landscape.For publishers like TPH, state-led publishing ended in the 1990s. when the IMF's Structural Adjustment Program brought austerity and privatization, which hurt state-owned companies. This directly impacted TPH and changed the country's publishing landscape.When the government stopped supporting state publishing, Walter Bgoya decided to leave TPH in 1991. He went on to start Mkuki na Nyota Publishers, carving out a new path in independent publishing. Since then, Mkuki na Nyota has continued this legacy as a key force in East African publishing, producing critical academic, historical, and literary works. In this episode, we interview Walter Bgoya. We focus on his leadership at TPH and his founding of Mkuki na Nyota. The conversation explores African publishing as a tool for decolonization, culture, and independence. This episode is part of the Africanist Press's New Democracy Series.
Plummeting foreign direct investment, rolling back gas subsidies, an IMF cash injection, an alarming study on childhood malnutrition, a controversial AI system, child support evaders barred from the World Cup, a ten-thousand-mile bicycle odyssey and much more.Thanks for tuning in!Let us know what you think and what we can improve on by emailing us at info@rorshok.com Like what you hear? Subscribe, share, and tell your buds.After two decades, Mercosur is finally looking beyond South America by Juan Marcos Polliohttps://buenosairesherald.com/politics/after-two-decades-mercosur-is-finally-looking-beyond-south-americaTHE DALLAS MORNING NEWS: Pedaling to Messi: Three friends bike from Argentina to U.S. for World Cup dreamhttps://www.dallasnews.com/sports/other-sports/article/argentina-fans-lionel-messi-2026-world-cup-22261169.phpCheck out our new t-shirts: https://rorshok.store/We want to get to know you! Please fill in this mini-survey: https://forms.gle/NV3h5jN13cRDp2r66Wanna avoid ads and help us financially? Follow the link: https://bit.ly/rorshok-donate
Part 1: Who Really Runs the World? Simon Dixon Exposes the Power Structures You're Not Meant to See Okay, buckle up—today's episode is not for the faint of heart. I sat down with Simon Dixon, legendary investor, Bitcoin OG, and ex-investment banker, and let's just say he's not here to sugarcoat anything about who actually controls our money, our governments, and, yes—our lives. If you've ever felt like the system is rigged, but couldn't put your finger on how, Simon paints the clearest, most disturbing picture of the power structures you never learned about in school. With every word, he pulls back the curtain on the “complexes”—military, financial, technological—that quietly shape global events. We go deep on how fiat currency is manufactured, why every government seems totally bought, and why your political choices may be more of an illusion than you've ever realized. (Seriously, if you care about understanding global power, wealth concentration, and what REALLY drives war and society, you need this episode.) SHOWNOTES [00:00] Simon Dixon's Introduction: From investment banker to Bitcoin investor—why he's the ultimate insider-outsider. [00:40] What is a “power structure”? Military, Financial, and Technological industrial complexes explained. [03:00] How profit and war are inextricably linked, and why companies truly “need” ongoing conflict. [04:17] Where does government fit? Why politicians are just actors and the real control lies elsewhere. [07:38] Understanding central banking: Why money is debt, and how the entire system is designed as a Ponzi scheme. [15:05] How the monetary system traps everyone with credit, debt, and obligations that literally cannot be repaid. [19:07] How politicians become useful to lobbyists, and how that advances careers (not people's interests) [27:00] How net worth and CEO “success” are always, always conditional on compliance with the financial industrial complex. [34:51] The origin story of Israel, the British Empire, military profit—and how war and resource acquisition drive everything. [41:49] Why new technologies are tested in war zones, and how surveillance, data, and state control evolve from there. [46:20] How the system manufactures “acceptable” narratives: manipulating humanitarian crises for profit and power. [52:39] Who owns what? How wealth gets concentrated and why 10% control 92% of the global stock market. [54:11] Israel's alignment with military industrial complex and why endless war is a business model. [57:07] Egypt's resistance, IMF debt, and the mechanics of ending empires. [01:02:13] Enter BlackRock: Mortgage-backed securities, global asset management, and controlling IF a company “lives or dies.” [01:07:22] How BlackRock's “Aladdin” leverages $25 trillion to scenario-plan global finance. [01:14:17] Iran, Venezuela, and engineered economic collapse—how currency warfare destabilizes nations for profit. Simon Dixon's Handles: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@simondixon21 Blog: https://simondixon.com Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/SimonDixonTwitt Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodAT&T Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.com Monetary Metals: Future-proof your wealth at https://monetarymetals.com/impact AquaTru: 20% off your purifier with code IMPACT https://aquatru.comTruemed: Check your eligibility and start saving at https://truemed.com/impactIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impactPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impact Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.: https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
SummaryClayton Cuteri joins Bruce Colero on the Be Great podcast for a wide-open, nearly two-hour conversation about the knowledge the elite have always guarded and why good people staying broke and powerless is no accident. It opens with how the Rothschilds quietly funded both sides of the Napoleonic Wars, walked away owning the bond market, and went on to shape the Federal Reserve and the IMF. From there, it moves into the two real levers of change on this planet: money and political power.The second half goes deep on the spiritual layer. The Bhagavad Gita and the divine versus demonic path. The Gospel of Thomas, found in 1945, is older than the Bible. How the text was changed over 1,600 years, and why Clayton believes a spiritual awakening is already underway. Clayton also shares his own arc from a software engineer, $10,000 in debt, to a millionaire in 22 months.Video of The PodcastWatch HereCampaign Websitehttps://writeincuteri.comClayton's NewsletterJoin HereClayton's BookPurchase HereClayton's Social Media LinkTree | Instagram | X (Twitter) | YouTube | FaceBook | RumbleTimecodes00:00 - Intro: How Rothschilds Funded Both Sides 01:15 - Defining Success and Your Why 05:09 - The Elites and Indigo Education 09:33 - Why Fear Comes From Not Knowing 16:49 - Knowledge Is Power: Money, Politics 22:17 - $10K Debt to Millionaire 33:58 - The Candle and the Blue Rug 42:10 - A Spiritual War, Not Political 01:05:02 - Books Are Speed Limit Signs01:22:34 - Who Really Wrote Your History01:36:20 - Is a Spiritual Awakening Coming?Intro/Outro Music Producer: Don Kin Instagram | Spotify Super grateful for this guy ^Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/traveling-to-consciousness-with-clayton-cuteri--6765271/support.Listen to the Podcast AD-FREE HERE for $4.95/monSign Up for my Newsletter HEREALL Indigo Education Podcasts HEREMy Book: The Secret Teachings of Jesus HEREOfficial Traveling to Consciousness Website HERE
As global powers face rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, export controls, and tariffs are once again tools of leverage, marking the resurgence of geoeconomics, where economic policy and national security converge. This approach to business was largely abandoned by the West after the Cold War, though for most other countries, geopolitics and economics have always been closely linked. Josh Lipsky is the founding director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, and Matteo Maggiori is a professor of finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. In this podcast, they discuss the new face of geoeconomics and its seemingly vengeful comeback. Transcript: https://bit.ly/4fe0G2a Read the articles in Finance & Development magazine: IMF.org/fandd
Are the government plans to help low income households hitting the right spot? Is there too much focus on symptoms and not causes? Could fiscal devolution happen too quickly? Why does the IMF often give the UK a rough ride on forecasts? Paul Johnson - former director of the IFS - is back to give us his take on the economic reforms being discussed across the political sphere. Plus Robert puts him under pressure to tell us which government has been the worst economically. Will he answer? Listen to Robert and Steph's chat with him to find out. The Rest is Money is brought to you by Octopus Energy, Britain's smart energy pioneer. Email: therestismoney@goalhanger.com X: @TheRestIsMoney Instagram: @TheRestIsMoney TikTok: @RestIsMoney Advertise with us: Partnerships@goalhanger.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Just a few years ago Meta's workforce in Ireland was about 3,000. When the newly announced round of job cuts are complete, the tech giant's headcount at its Irish bases will be halved.The reasons for the job losses – the cuts are part of a global redundancy programme – have not been made public but AI is widely acknowledged as a driver. But how?And Meta isn't the only company shedding jobs. The Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp owner joins a list that incudes Amazon, Oracle and Covalen with several tech giants with major footprints in Ireland expected to follow.In a country which depends so much on global tech giants to prop up the economy, it's a worrying prospect. But is the IMF right in its pessimism about how AI is going to impact the Irish economy?Irish Times economics columnist Cliff Taylor explains the AI effect.Presented by Bernice Harrison. Produced by Suzanne Brennan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
David is not only a novelist. He is a former global macro strategist, described by Bloomberg as “one of the most outspoken voices on Wall Street,” with a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia and a career that spanned the IMF, London, and New York. What makes this book unusual and interesting for this moment in time is that it translates decades of economic transformation into human stories we can all recognize. The novel tells the story of globalization through nine interlinked lives that converge during a hostage crisis at the Bull & Bear Bar in New York on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. From a Chinese factory director to a Wall Street bond salesman, a Japanese media celebrity to a Mexican undocumented worker, the novel shows how decisions made in one part of the world ripple outward in ways no one fully controls. As the former Bank of America Head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research (2010 – 2020), David's perspective is unique - he helped interpret and forecast the forces that reshaped trade, finance, geopolitics, and capital flows. Now, through fiction, he opens a window into what those forces did to ordinary lives, how they formed the world we inhabit today, and why so many people feel both enriched and dislocated by it.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/arroe-collins-unplugged-totally-uncut--994165/support.
Khurram Husain, one of Pakistan's most widely read business and economy journalists and a columnist at Dawn, joins host Tushar Shetty to examine whether Pakistan's recent diplomatic gains are translating into meaningful economic progress. They discuss the tangible but limited economic benefits of Pakistan's geopolitical revival, the impact of the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade on Pakistan's fuel supply chain and inflation, the emergence of a new regional grouping around Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan and the trade complementarities unlocked by Iran's reintegration, the mixed legacy of CPEC and China's retreat from large-scale economic engagement with Pakistan, the structural roots of Pakistan's IMF dependency in successive cycles of military rule, the prospects for India-Pakistan stabilization and a peace dividend, the drivers behind Pakistan's rapid solar adoption, and the limits of geoeconomics as a substitute for domestic fiscal and structural reform.
The IMF warns that Ireland's resilence can't be taken for granted. For more on this our Work and Technology Correspondent, Brian O'Donovan.
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Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/latin-american-studies
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/native-american-studies
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/environmental-studies
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/anthropology
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics
Lithium Extraction in Chile: Ontological, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (Routledge, 2025) is a new book from Dr Daniela Soto-Hernández, a Social Anthropologist currently working as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sussex. In this book, published with Routledge, Dr Soto-Hernández uses ethnographic methods during her intensive fieldwork in Chile, specifically in and around the Atacama Desert, to take a relational view on lithium mining in the region. Chile is the largest and oldest producer of lithium in South America and the second largest in the world, accounting for nearly 32% of the global supply in 2022. Dr Soto-Hernández's book, Lithium Extraction in Chile, is a crucial and new way of seeking to understand not only lithium, but the worlds that are created around the resource; inclusive of sacred, indigenous relations, the ubiquitous role of water, the discursive and practical dimensions of lithium production, and the social tensions manifest throughout these processes. Dr Soto-Hernández first explores the ways in which the Chilean Atacama Desert has been constructed as a ‘desolate-scape' through mechanisms and relations of coloniality and capitalism, to render the territory as lifeless and only appropriate for extraction. Then, and by using the rich fieldwork central to the book, Dr Soto-Hernández puts forward the notion of ‘desertscape' to express the ways of living for indigenous peoples in the territories of the Atacama Desert, such as for the Lickanantay peoples. This paints a direct contrast to the colonised view of the desert as a ‘desolate-scape', which serves capital, and instead expresses the abundance, world-making, and life-giving properties of the landscape as ‘desertscape'. This relational view of the Atacama Desert, inclusive of non-people, people, and the sacred, is then used to understand the role of lithium, brine, and water extraction in this crucial territory, with implications for a truly transformative energy transition. Elliot Dolan-Evans is a sessional lecturer and tutor in law at Monash University and RMIT. His research investigates the political economy of global capitalism, forms of international governance, and questions of war and peace. His first book, Making War Safe for Capitalism: The World Bank, IMF and the Conflict in Ukraine, is now out with Bristol University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
When global volatility increases, so does the demand for the dollar. When countries face sanctions, they rush for gold. But while the two have been the most common reserve currencies for decades, surprising alternatives are emerging. UC Berkeley professor and author Barry Eichengreen, along with IMF economists Chima Simpson-Bell and Serkan Arslanalp, track the dynamics of reserve currencies in their recent NBER paper. In this podcast, Eichengreen and Simpson-Bell discuss the changing landscape of reserve currencies. Transcript: https://bit.ly/43ovB4o
本月,执掌美联储八年的鲍威尔卸任,特朗普支持的沃什接棒;世界各国银行也在近期纷纷表示对美元的担忧:美元正在失去它的货币霸权地位吗?新一轮的货币替代会发生吗? 过去 500 年,世界货币霸权先后在荷兰、英国、美国间流转,每一次交替,都伴随着战争、财政危机与信用崩塌。今天,美国国债占 GDP 已经高达 100%,各国央行的美元储备持续减少,全球的非美元结算却在逐步提升…… 这一期节目,我们邀请到美国凯洛格商学院金融学副教授、IMF 经济政策顾问蒋正阳,从货币霸权的历史演变出发,聊一聊美元在今天正在面临着怎样的结构性压力,以及这对世界的未来可能意味着什么。 本期人物 蒋正阳,西北大学凯洛格商学院金融学副教授,国际货币基金组织经济政策顾问 徐涛,声动活泼联合创始人 主要话题 [04:12] 特朗普和鲍威尔为什么彼此不对付? [08:20] 货币霸权 500 年,荷兰、英国、美国如何先后坐庄 [20:31] 从西方到东方,美国如何有意识地把美元推上霸主之位 [36:07] 美元潮汐:美联储的货币政策如何对大洋彼岸的市场产生影响 [50:27] 如果美元走弱,接棒者可能是谁 延伸阅读 蒋正阳老师的新书:《货币霸权》 澳大利亚联邦银行在最新播客中特别强调,"对美联储独立性的日益不安"是美元储备货币地位面临质疑的关键驱动因素,尤其是特朗普持续公开施压要求降息。 《财富》的文章:‘Different from anything in the past 80 years of dollar dominance': U.S. sanctions spur a ‘paradox' pushing allies away from American currency 《纽约时报》的文章:How the U.S. Is Trying to Ensure the Dollar's Dominance During Economic Turmoil 给声东击西投稿 声东击西正在密切关注中东战局及其带来的影响,所以如果你所在的行业或公司,正在受到霍尔木兹海峡封锁的影响,欢迎向我们投稿,你的声音对我们非常重要。 投稿入口 你也可以直接通过邮箱直接联系节目组:kexuan@shengfm.cn 「Knock Knock 世界」 「汉坦病毒」是什么,「邮轮」又为什么更容易爆发疫情?点此收听(https://sourl.co/StGDWJ ) 在「Knock Knock 世界」里,听到全球新鲜事,还能成为「全球观察员」,报选题、参加选题会。2026 年的节目正在持续更新 加入我们 声动活泼团队目前正在招聘内容监制、商业运营经理、商业发展经理和部分实习生,如果你也对播客行业的内容制作和商务运营感兴趣,欢迎投递! 到详情点击招聘入口:加入声动活泼(在招职位速览) 幕后制作 监制:可宣 后期:赛德 运营:George 设计:饭团 实习生:Jean 商务合作 声动活泼商业化小队,点击链接可直达商务会客厅(商务会客厅链接:https://sourl.cn/QDhnEc ),也可发送邮件至 business@shengfm.cn 联系我们。 关于声动活泼 「用声音碰撞世界」,声动活泼致力于为人们提供源源不断的思考养料。 我们还有这些播客:不止金钱、跳进兔子洞第三季、声东击西、声动早咖啡、What's Next|科技早知道、反潮流俱乐部、泡腾 VC、商业WHY酱 欢迎在即刻、微博等社交媒体上与我们互动,搜索 声动活泼 即可找到我们。 也欢迎你写邮件和我们联系,邮箱地址是:ting@sheng.fm 获取更多和声动活泼有关的讯息,你也可以扫码添加声小音,在节目之外和我们保持联系!
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Take 730 delegates from 44 countries, plus another 2,000 or so hangers-on. House them in a remote, dilapidated hotel with holes in the roof and broken furniture. Deliver a train wagon filled with alcohol. Throw in some Russian spies, German prisoners of war, a troupe of bombshell “secretaries” and a magician. And then have the lead protagonist, the world's most famous economist, almost die of a heart attack. What does that give you? Only the most successful international monetary negotiation in history. This is the story of the Bretton Woods conference of 1944, as relayed by journalist and author Ed Conway to hosts Gillian Tett and Robin Wigglesworth. The three weeks of chaotic talks would deliver three decades of postwar peace and prosperity, and enthrone the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The discussions also nearly killed Britain's lead negotiator, John Maynard Keynes, and would later disgrace his US counterpart, Harry Dexter White.Further reading:The Summit, by Ed Conway (2015)The Economic Consequences of the Peace, by John Maynard Keynes (1919)John Maynard Keynes, biography by Robert Skidelsky in three volumes (1983-2000)Treasonable Doubt: The Harry Dexter White Spy Case, by R Bruce Craig (2004)Credits: King's College Cambridge, the IMF, Dreamstime, Getty Images, the Hulton Archive, Ullstein Bild, Bettmann, Shutterstock, the LIFE Picture Collection, Thomas D McAvoy, Alfred Eisenstaedt, and the Darling Archive.To enjoy future episodes, be sure to subscribe to The Story of Money wherever you get your podcasts, also on the show's dedicated YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@FTTheStoryOfMoneyHosts: Gillian Tett and Robin WigglesworthProducer: Laurence KnightExecutive Producers: Flo Phillips and Manuela SaragosaOriginal music: Breen TurnerBroadcast engineers: Bianca Wakeman and Petros GiuompasisPodcast Development: Laura ClarkeVideo editor: Kristen Kenyon and Josh Divney at Podcast DiscoveryLearn more at ft.com/tsom or get in touch at thestoryofmoney@ft.com.Love listening to FT Podcasts? Join us live on Saturday June 20 at our inaugural NYC FT Weekend Festival at Spring Studios. Put your questions directly to our experts, experience your favourite podcast in person, and see the FT come to life. Register now and enjoy 10% off with code FTPodcast — this is one Saturday you won't want to miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In 1993, the World Bank published a report on a remarkable development story.East Asia's post-war growth — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and their neighbours — had lifted millions out of poverty in a generation. The report documented the influence of export subsidies, state-directed credit, land reform, and government-business dialogue. But the bank, constrained by the Washington Consensus of the time, underplayed the industrial policies that were at the heart of this miracle.Nancy Birdsall was head of the department that produced the report. In this week's VoxDev Talk, she looks back, talking to Tim Phillips about whether this stance affected policy in other developing countries.Birdsall tells Tim Phillips how the report came to exist at all — financed by the Japanese government as a deliberate strategy to expose the bank's economists to a success story their prevailing framework couldn't explain. With industrial policy back at the centre of economic debate, Birdsall's new article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives asks whether the bank missed its moment to embed those lessons into its operational work. The research behind this episode:Birdsall, Nancy. 2025. "The World Bank's East Asian Miracle: Too Much a Product of Its Time?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 39(4): 127–48. A free download is available at the Center for Global Development.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Nancy Birdsall. 2026. "The World Bank's East Asian Miracle." VoxDev Talk (podcast). [Episode URL].Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About Nancy BirdsallNancy Birdsall is president emerita of the Center for Global Development, which she co-founded in 2001. She was previously executive vice president of the Inter-American Development Bank and, before that, director of the Policy Research Department at the World Bank, where she oversaw the department responsible for the East Asian Miracle report. Her research spans development finance, inequality, economic growth and the role of multilateral institutions in the global economy.Research cited in this episodeThe East Asian Miracle (World Bank, 1993). A 400-page study of the economic performance of eight high-performing Asian economies — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand — covering the period 1965 to 1990. Commissioned with Japanese government funding, the report documented both market fundamentals and a range of active state policies; its handling of industrial policy was carefully hedged to remain within the bounds of what the bank's dominant Washington Consensus framework could accept. The full report is available from the World Bank Open Knowledge Repository.The Washington Consensus. A term coined by economist John Williamson in 1989 to describe the package of macroeconomic and structural reforms — fiscal discipline, trade liberalisation, privatisation, deregulation and market-determined prices — that the IMF, World Bank and US Treasury broadly promoted as the framework for development in the late 1980s and 1990s. The consensus was dominant inside the bank during the period the East Asian Miracle report was written; countries following activist state policies did not fit its categories easily.MITI (Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry). The Japanese government body responsible for coordinating industrial and trade policy during Japan's post-war growth period, including the direction of credit, protection of infant industries and promotion of heavy manufacturing exports. MITI was widely known inside the bank, but its role in Japan's development was not systematically studied or incorporated into the bank's policy advice until the East Asian Miracle report. It was abolished and reorganised as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in 2001.Performance-based credit subsidies. A mechanism used across several East Asian economies in which exporters could access subsidised credit conditional on demonstrating actual export orders. The conditionality — credit only if you are already performing — was central to why the policy worked: it rewarded productive firms and withdrew support from those that failed to deliver. The East Asian Miracle report described this approach in detail without classifying it as industrial policy.Japan's postal savings system. A government-run savings scheme that channelled household deposits through post offices into state-directed investment, providing below-market returns to savers while funding subsidised credit to targeted sectors. Birdsall notes it as a mechanism worth studying for developing countries seeking to finance industrial support without relying on private capital markets.Indonesia and the airplane sector. The Indonesian government under Suharto sought to develop a domestic aerospace industry, with state subsidies to Industri Pesawat Terbang Nusantara (IPTN). The World Bank's East Asia regional department, which managed the bank's lending relationship with Indonesia, was concerned that the East Asian Miracle report might be read as endorsing this approach. Their pressure to limit the report's treatment of industrial policy is the episode's opening anecdote — and the source of what is possibly the best line in the show.IDB report on public-private dialogue in Latin America. Birdsall references work by the Inter-American Development Bank on the conditions under which structured dialogue between government bureaucrats and private-sector firms can support industrial policy; she notes that access at the highest levels of government — including the president — appears to be a factor in whether such dialogues produce results. More VoxDev Talks on this topicIndustrial policy for economic development, Dani Rodrik on the evidence for active state roles in directing investment and exports, and the institutional prerequisites for making them work.The future of the World Bank: Why knowledge is power, Penny Goldberg on the bank's role as a producer and broker of development knowledge, and how that function has evolved since the Washington Consensus era.Related reading on VoxDevModern industrial policy: The Asian miracles' blueprint, a VoxDev Talk examining how the principles behind East Asian industrial success — performance conditionality, export orientation, technology learning — can be translated into policy frameworks for today's developing economies.Where are we in the economics of industrial policies?, what three decades of research have established about when and why industrial policy works, and what conditions determine whether government intervention helps or hinders.Implementing industrial policy effectively: Lessons from shipbuilding in China, how policy design and performance conditionality determine whether sector-level support produces lasting productivity gains — the same question at the heart of the East Asian Miracle debate.
SummaryClayton Cuteri sits down with Sean Kelley on the Daily Social Hour to unpack the spiritual journey that took him from $10,000 in debt to a millionaire in 22 months, and the hidden financial history nobody learns in school. The conversation covers the Rothschild banker war playbook starting at Waterloo, how the IMF was designed to drain wealth out of the United States, the 1953 CIA coup in Iran that explains "death to America," and Clayton's prediction of the Venezuela regime change four months before it happened.Clayton also breaks down why the Bible has been changed, what the Gospel of Thomas reveals about the divine spark within, and shares an Indigo Education teaching on atoms, energies, and the nature of physical health. He closes on his core mission: world peace through purifying nature.BONUS: Clayton discusses some Indigo Education knowledge.Video of The PodcastWatch HereCampaign Websitehttps://writeincuteri.comClayton's NewsletterJoin HereClayton's BookPurchase HereClayton's Social Media LinkTree | Instagram | X (Twitter) | YouTube | FaceBook | RumbleTimecodes00:00 - All Wars are Banker Wars 00:47 - $10K Debt to Millionaire in 22 Months 07:30 - Gospel of Thomas and the Changed Bible 14:30 - Rothschilds, Rockefellers & Big Pharma 19:00 - The IMF, the Fed & the Petrodollar 23:30 - The Rothschild Banker War Playbook 26:30 - Venezuela, Iran & Operation Ajax 195344:00 - Indigo Education: the atoms philosophyIntro/Outro Music Producer: Don Kin Instagram | Spotify Super grateful for this guy ^Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/traveling-to-consciousness-with-clayton-cuteri--6765271/support.Listen to the Podcast AD-FREE HERE for $4.95/monSign Up for my Newsletter HEREALL Indigo Education Podcasts HEREMy Book: The Secret Teachings of Jesus HEREOfficial Traveling to Consciousness Website HERE
HEADLINES:• Saudi emerges Gulf's most resilient economy amid Strait fallout, IMF says • Mubadala Capital added Palantir stock to its portfolio in Q1 2026 • Alabbar's Noon plans to launch operations in Syria
VLOG May 14 Harvey Weinstein jury, chest pains http://books.google.com/books/about?id=YWzVEQAAQBAJ Brazil murder trial- in SDNY https://matthewrussellleeicp.substack.com/p/art-world-hit-trial-for-murder-of Luigi Mangione suit May 18 https://www.patreon.com/posts/luigi-docket-for-158180748 Fed OKs felon Calk in banking, IMF upbeat on Senegal (as Macky Sall runs UNSG, no answer
The global order is BREAKING in real time — and almost nobody is explaining what that actually means for you. They keep screaming that Trump is “destroying democracy,” “collapsing NATO,” and “ending the world order.” But here's the question nobody in the media wants to ask: what if the system was already failing long before Trump ever entered politics? In this bombshell episode, Jillian breaks down the slow-motion collapse of the post-WWII order that governed the world for nearly 80 years — NATO, the UN, the WTO, the IMF, the dollar system, globalization, America's manufacturing collapse, China's rise, and the growing fracture between the United States and its allies. And this is NOT abstract. If this system breaks, it hits YOUR life fast: Gas prices explode Supply chains collapse Food prices surge Mortgage rates rise Retirement accounts get crushed Semiconductor shortages cripple industries America loses leverage to China, Russia, and BRICS nations building alternatives to the dollar This episode connects the dots the political class refuses to connect: Why NATO is under more strain than at any point since the Cold War Why America's allies are starting to hedge against U.S. power Why China is preparing for a world where America no longer leads Why Taiwan could trigger an economic catastrophe worse than 2008 Why the collapse of deterrence could reshape the century Why Trump's tariff wars, Greenland push, Panama focus, and reshoring agenda may all be part of a larger strategic shift From Iraq to the 2008 financial crash… from the rise of BRICS to the unraveling of arms control treaties… from Ukraine to Iran to Taiwan… this is the story behind the story of the collapsing world order. The scariest part? Serious people in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and Brussels no longer treat major global conflict as “unthinkable.” The rules-based order is cracking. The alliances are straining. The guardrails are weakening. And the next decade could determine whether America reforms the system… or gets buried by the collapse of it. Fox One: Sign up at https://fox.com to watch Keeping It Real and more on-demand with FOX One.Beam: Visit https://shopbeam.com/REAL and use code REAL to get our exclusive discount of up to 40% off.Cardiff: Get fast business funding without bank delays—apply in minutes with Cardiff and access up to $500,000 in same‑day funding at https://Cardiff.co/JILLIAN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss. IMF's World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America's War Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn't Blinking Yet Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Back from the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Simon Waever and Seth Carpenter unpack what policy makers and investors could be underpricing: the growth hit from higher energy costs, the risk of too much tightening by central banks and why emerging markets still look resilient.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Simon Waever: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Simon Waever, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit and LatAm Fixed Income Strategy. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Simon Waever: Today: The key takeaways for investors from the International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington, D.C. It's Tuesday, April 21st at 10am in New York. Every six months, the IMF meetings in D.C. bring policy makers and investors together to take stock of the global economy. And we were both there as part of our IMF policy pulse conference. This time, continuing a pattern of recent years, the backdrop was a bit more complicated. Investors are weighing the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, potentially more persistent inflation pressures, and, as always, rising concerns around global debt and fiscal sustainability. So, the key question coming out of Washington is how do these risks reshape the outlook, and what should investors be paying attention to now. Let's start with the growth outlook, Seth. When you think about the Iran conflict, what's the single biggest channel through which it could hit global growth? And is that risk underpriced by markets today? Seth Carpenter: I think it really is underpriced, and not just by markets. I would say I had conversations with investors, but also with policy makers down in Washington. And I would say relative to my views on things, both markets and policy makers are under appreciating how much of a hit to growth this could be. Where is it going to happen? What's the channel? Well, that actually – that differs depending on which economy that you're looking at. I would say here in the U.S., it's primarily the middle- and lower-end of the income distribution. Higher energy prices, gasoline prices going up, taking away at discretionary income, especially in what we've been calling this K-shaped economy where the bottom half is already struggling. So, a bit of a hit primarily to consumption spending. I'd say in other parts of the world, it's broader. Asia – we are already starting to see rationing being imposed for production, for public transportation in lots of ways that really are going to crimp spending both by households and businesses. And then of course Europe. Well, they're still in some ways reeling and adapting from the energy price shock. When Russia invaded Ukraine, natural gas prices went up a lot more then. But I think there's still an adjustment process going on. So, I think the potential hit to growth is real. I think it has spread across economies around the world, but each different economy, each different country has its own sort of nuance and flavor to it. Simon Waever: And what about the central banks? I know you met with quite a few of them as well. Are they at risk of being behind the curve on inflation or is actually the bigger mistake now look like over-tightening? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I really think the over-tightening is the bigger risk here. It's funny, being behind the curve. That's a phrase that I did hear a lot, especially among some of the European policy makers. And people are feeling scarred, I guess you could say, from the surge in inflation that we got coming out of COVID. But history suggests that these sorts of surges in energy prices tend to be: one, more focused in headline inflation rather than core; and second, they do tend to revert on time and go away, over time. And I would say the bigger the hit to growth, the more likely it is that the inflationary impulse will start to fade on its own. And so, I do think there's too much reliance maybe on the inflation side of things, maybe not quite enough on the growth. And so, when I weigh the pros and cons, I would say the risk is probably too much tightening rather than not enough. But you know, Simon, I tend to spend more of my time in Washington talking to policymakers and investors who are focused on the developed market economy. So, I talked to people about the Fed, talked to people about the ECB. Morgan Stanley's real strong suit, when we do these conferences of the meeting though, is our EM focus. And I know you and the rest of the team have really over the years ramped up our engagement. So, when you think about the conversations that you had with investors and with officials, what do you think has, sort of, shifted most in recent months? And maybe what's shifted over the past week because the news flow has been going back and forth. What's going on in emerging markets that investors need to know about? Simon Waever: Right. I would say the first, and by far the biggest focus throughout the week was the disconnect between the very positive market sentiment versus actual developments in the Iran conflict. I think many participants believe the mood would be much worse and that the decision coming out of the meetings would be whether to buy into a challenging backdrop or just stay away. But instead, I think they came away thinking that the mood was actually fairly upbeat. But also that markets are pricing in a substantial probability of a resolution already. And that brings me to my second takeaways, and that's around EM resilience. EM has faced multiple macro shocks in recent years. And I think it's fair to say that EM policymakers, including central banks, have built up their credibility when it comes to responding to such events and the volatility they bring. Several of the EM central banks we met were positively surprised by the resilience of FX markets but also noted that they would still err on the side of caution. EM fundamentals also help in this aspect, which has seen contained external imbalances versus the past and mechanisms to deal with the energy price shock.Of course, with everything else impacted by the war, duration matters – especially as fiscal buffers are not equal across EM. But I would say in general it reaffirms our view that EM is in a good place to absorb and deal with the uncertainty. And that would actually be my third and final point. That the year as a whole should be good for EM assets, assuming that trajectory remains one of de-escalation. And I think that does extend to FX as well, where the market may quickly return to trading U.S. dollar weakness, particularly if the market's priced more of the Fed cuts that you expect. Seth Carpenter: Got it. So, you did say, assuming we return to a theme of de-escalation, and I guess we have that built into our forecast. The last four or five, six days has seen lots of back and forth. But if we do assume we end up de-escalating the current crisis in the Middle East, looking across EM [be]cause it really is a differentiated, subtly nuanced, broad part of the world. If I had to push you a little bit and say, where do you see the clearest winners? What would you point at? Simon Waever: Sure. I mean, to me, LatAm remains a key winner. We've had this call since the start of the year, but if anything, the Iran conflict and my discussions at the IMF only reinforce this. The region is obviously physically removed from the Middle East, but there are also many large commodity exporters. And a lot of the discussions were around the political realignment with the U.S. and there are several examples. Just to give a few: Argentina as usual, was a key part of the discussions. And compared to the meeting six months ago, they were much more positive given what's been accomplished since, both in terms of the structural reforms and the FX purchases here to date. And I have to mention Venezuela given it was during the meetings last week that the IMF resumed dealing with them, which had been a key positive catalyst that we've been looking for. Brazil is obviously the biggest economy, and I would say sentiment was pretty positive. But also there's an acknowledgement that the elections in October are just too close to call. And that is likely to bring some uncertainty closer to the time. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, those are all super compelling examples [be]cause they mix the economics, the markets with the politics. Obviously you mentioned the elections coming up in Brazil; and then for Argentina it was this real huge landslide shift in what was going on because of an election there a couple years ago. And we're seeing how that's coming out. Alright, so let's go in the opposite direction. And not everything can be rosy, and even if as a class we're pretty optimistic and pretty constructive on EM… Do you think there are some key vulnerabilities across the space that you cover that maybe could surprise us to the downside? Or maybe that markets really aren't appreciating now and might have to rethink? Simon Waever: Yeah, I think to start with, we move outside of LatAm and in all those discussions it was much more about the extent of vulnerability to the conflict and in particular the energy exposure. And I would say in general, an oil price of eighties is a sweet spot for EM, sovereign dollar bonds. But differentiation should pick up a lot. I would say the obvious view would be that energy exporters should outperform importers. But what I would highlight is actually more around the differentiation within all the importers [be]cause that's where policy space can differ significantly. And even just within Central America and Caribbean, I would call out countries like Costa Rica and Guatemala as having more policy space than say, El Salvador or Dominican Republic. And within Africa, it really comes down to the energy balance and whether you have alternative financing sources. Seth Carpenter: Got it. Got it. That's really helpful. I will say every day, every week, every month we get new headlines about what's going on. I think you and I are both going to have to be glued to our screens to, sort of, follow what's going on and see how it affects markets. But I guess for here maybe we will call it quits. I really learned a lot from my time down in Washington. It sounds like you had some really good engagement too. Simon Waever: Yep. I agree. Thanks for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: It's always good to talk to you, Simon. Simon Waever: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
SCHEDULE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 4-16-26.1871-1885 BRITISH IRONCLAD1. Tom Modly joins John Batchelor to discuss the Trump administration's 2027 Navy budget. Secretary John Felin proposes doubling ship production to 34 vessels to expand industrial capacity and secure global oceans.2. Tom Modly explains the Golden Fleet concept, featuring a potential 40,000-ton battleship. He emphasizes naval agility and drone integration on LCS platforms to counter threats from Iranian, Ukrainian, and Russian adversaries.3. Anatol Lieven analyzes Hungary's election, where Peter Magyar defeated Viktor Orbán. This victory could lift blocks on Ukrainian aid, though Hungary remains economically dependent on Russian energy and faces significant corruption.4. Anatol Lieven warns of a looming global recession fueled by oil shocks and Middle East conflict. He describes Donald Trump as a wrecking ball for American international reputation and diplomatic relations within Europe.5. Evan Ellis reports on Peru's election runoff between Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sanchez. He notes Sanchez's ties to Vladimir Cerron and Cuba, raising concerns about radical leftist governance returning to Peru.6. Evan Ellis details China's deep penetration in Peru, centered on the Chancay port controlled by Cosco. Corruption within Peruvian institutions allows Beijing to dominate strategic sectors including mining, telecommunications, and Pacific maritime routes.7. Evan Ellis discusses the Rodriguez family's control in Venezuela following Nicolas Maduro's capture. He suggests they are slow-walking democratic transitions to exploit oil deals, hoping to outlast the Trump administration's pressure and US midterms.8. Evan Ellis highlights Argentina's economic progress under Javier Milei and Luis Caputo, supported by a new IMF deal. Milei has cut spending to reactivate the economy while the Peronist opposition remains defeated.9. Andrea Stricker discusses Iran's chemical weapons program, including aerosolized fentanyl. Israel has struck research facilities at Imam Hussein University to degrade these capabilities, which Iran co-mingles with civilian academic programs.10. Andrea Stricker emphasizes targeting Iran's chemical supply chain involving China, India, and Mexico. She advocates international pressure through the Australia Group and UN 1540 Committee to prevent Tehran from restoring illicit weapons.11. Joe Pistrito and Phil Swan evaluate the Artemis 2 mission's success. They argue the space race with China drives NASA priorities, despite disagreements on the efficiency of commercial versus government architectures for lunar exploration.12. Phil Swan and Joe Pistrito envision reusable systems landing humans on Mars within a decade. They advocate for infrastructure like mass drivers and space hotels to reduce costs and build a sustainable multiplanetary civilization.13. Simon Constable reports from France on falling energy prices and rising fertilizer costs. He notes the growing popularity of Marine Le Pen as Europe faces economic uncertainty and concerns over Iranian maritime blockades.14. Simon Constable laments the decline of the Royal Navy, noting Britain has more admirals than warships. He criticizes Keir Starmer for resisting military budget increases despite rising threats from Russia and Iran.15. Mary Anastasia O'Grady debunks myths about Cuba's electricity crisis, attributing it to a lack of hard currency rather than the US embargo. The regime prioritizes power for elites and luxury hotels over ordinary citizens.16. Veronique de Rugy addresses common tax myths, explaining that the top 1% already pays 40% of US taxes. She argues that confiscating billionaire wealth would fail to eliminate the massive $25 trillion national deficit.
President Trump says new talks with Iran could happen in the next two days, and negotiations with Israel, Lebanon and Hamas all unfold simultaneously across the region. The Iran war is pushing up prices on everything from gas to groceries, with fuel protests spreading across Europe and the IMF warning of a global recession.And a second woman has accused Eric Swalwell of rape, saying she was drugged in a West Hollywood hotel room, as Swalwell resigned from Congress and faces potential criminal investigations in three cities.Want more analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ruth Sherlock, Tina Kraja , Padma Rama, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle.It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Ava Pukatch.Our director is Christopher Thomas.We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Carleigh Strange.And our Supervising Producer is Reena Advani.(0:00) Introduction(01:51) Middle East War Negotiations(05:25) War And The Global Economy(09:06) New Swalwell AllegationsTo manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy
Big news! We've just been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it's time to bring it home — and we need your help. Cast your vote HERE: https://wbby.co/57448N Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break down the escalating crisis following the Trump administration's Iran blockade—and what it could mean for the global economy. As tensions intensify in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations stall between the U.S. and Iran, markets are flashing warning signs that a broader economic shock may already be unfolding. Senator Chris Murphy joins the show to discuss the legality of the administration's actions, Congress's inability to assert War Powers authority, and whether the U.S. is being pushed toward a wider conflict without meaningful checks and balances. The conversation also explores growing international backlash, shifting alliances in Europe and the Middle East, and the potential fallout for global trade and energy markets. With the IMF warning of slowing global growth, rising inflation, and increased recession risk, the panel examines whether Trump's Iran strategy could trigger a broader economic downturn—and what, if anything, can be done to stop it. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov Follow Prof G, @profgalloway Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices