Podcasts about uk gdp

Markets erupted this week as oil spiked 13% overnight following Israeli strikes on Iran. Anthony and Piers unpack what it all means from geopolitical shockwaves to the tactical chaos of trading during breaking news.They also dive into the concept of backwardation and why it's dominated the oil market for years, despite the headlines. Plus, what U.S. inflation data reveals about Trump's tariff strategy and the real pressure behind his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.With the Fed meeting looming, a surging FTSE defying weak UK GDP, and signs of a subtle U.S.–China détente in London, this episode helps you connect the dots in a world full of noise.(00:00) Intro & Key Themes in Focus(02:14) Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events(12:33) Understanding Oil Market Dynamics(17:47) US Inflation Data and Its Implications(25:39) Trump Pressures the Fed to Cut(27:50) US-China Relations and Market Impact(32:45) UK GDP and the Resilience of the FTSE 100

APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE's Dhingra, Supply from US.Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

On Nick Ferrari at Breakfast.UK GDP has grown 0.7% in the first quarter of this year, beating out all other G7 countries. Nick talks to Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Emma ReynoldsGary Lineker has apologised for an 'offensive' post he re-shared on his Instagram featuring an image of a rat The Assisted Dying bill faces another reading in Parliament. Labour MP behind bill, Kim Leadbeater, takes your callsAll of this and more on Nick Ferrari - The Whole Show Podcast.

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam discusses the main headlines from Wednesday and asks the question, 'does the market need a new driver to continue pushing higher?'.

In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff and trade negotiations. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (09:54), Japan (13:19), Asia (16:12).

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: (1) The Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction in talks with China to ease economic pain and de-escalate tensions. The US aims to reduce tariffs below 60% as a first step, which China may be prepared to match, with progress possible as soon as next week. (2) The new trade deal between the US and UK includes a carve-out for autos, which could reduce the tariff levy from 27.5% to 10%, making a 0.1% difference to UK GDP. The deal's impact is limited because almost half of UK value-add that ends up in the US is exported via other countries, and global uncertainty remains a major drag on the UK economy. (3) US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is upending long-held alliances, threatening global growth and causing mayhem for business. For UK homeowners, though, it is working out quite well. In the last few weeks, several major high street lenders have cut mortgage deals below 4% for the first time in months. (4) Mayor of London Sadiq Khan will “actively explore” building on the city’s green belt in what would amount to the biggest change to housing policy in the UK capital since the 1960s. The mayor will announce a consultation on releasing parts of London’s green belt in a speech Friday, saying that some building in the protected zone around the city is necessary to meet the capital’s targets and to end a housing crisis. (5) Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was elected as Roman Catholic pontiff, the first ever pope from the US and a possible bridge between the moderate and hardline sides of a divided Church. Prevost, 69, chose the name of Leo XIV for his pontificate and was greeted by thousands of cheering faithful as he stepped out onto a balcony overlooking St. Peter’s Square to be presented to the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US stocks pared some of Wednesday's historic gain, the Dollar was heavily sold, while the long-end of the Treasury curve saw further selling despite a strong US 30yr auction.The risk-off mood further exacerbated after reports that the White House clarified that US tariffs on China now totalled 145% after the latest hike (20% already in place + 125% added this year).APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the declines on Wall St, DXY suffered another bout of selling pressure, 10yr UST futures were lacklustre following the recent volatility.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 4.3% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, US PPI, UoM Prelim, Moody's review on France, UK, Italy, Spain & Switzerland's Credit Rating, Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Williams & BoE's Greene, Supply from Italy, Earnings from JPMorgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley & Fastenal.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive as risk sentiment gradually improved following the negative lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 slipped into a technical correction amid tariff concerns after President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wine and champagne.US President Trump said he is not going to change his mind on April 2nd tariffs and won't bend on Canada metals or April 2nd tariffs, while he added they don't need Canada's cars, energy or lumber.Russian President Putin supported the idea of a ceasefire but stressed that the ceasefire must lead to a final settlement of the conflict and solve the root causes of the conflict.US Senate Minority Leader Schumer said he will vote to keep the government open and not shut it down.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, US UoM Survey, Trump executive orders, Fitch to review France; US Government Funding Expires, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from BMW, Daimler Truck, Bechtle & Li Auto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam reviews yesterday's key market moves, and discusses how the S&P 500 closed in correction territory, Gold reached a new all-time high and Trump threatened the EU with more tariffs.

Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Sign up for James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 10th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week: U.S. employment data in line with expectations German fiscal expansion sends yields surging (worst day in 35 years) China falls into deflation again Dollar's 3rd worst week in 15 years Bullish bets for oil near 15-year lows Key data releases this week: Tuesday – JOLTS job openings Wednesday – US CPI, mortgage applications, BOC rate decision Thursday– US PPI Friday – US consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP  Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don't miss it! https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Will Bain looks ahead to the latest UK GDP data. Plus, how could Donald Trump's tariffs impact the Scottish whisky industry?

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam reviews a busy day in financial markets after a hot inflation report from the US, but some positive geopolitical developments. Sam goes onto to discuss the recently announced UK GDP number, European equities hitting highs, and the upcoming earnings for the rest of the week.

This special episode of Macro Mondays LIVE from Singapore aired at 12pm GMT on Monday, 10th February 2025.Join us every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week:- We're seeing stronger US economic data and employment data - but Fed is still wary of inflation.- Chinese tech stocks are looking strong.- Bank of England cut 25bp - but central bank warns of inflation.- Trump is still looking to lower oil prices.- Gold hits new all-time highs. Key Data Releases This Week: Tuesday: Fed Powell testimony, UK retail salesWednesday: US CPIThursday: US PPI, UK GDP, EZ IPFriday: US retail sales & IP, EZ employmentTune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don't miss it! CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam discusses the gap lower seen across US equities last night following the ongoing 'trade war'. Sam goes onto preview the week ahead which includes US CPI, UK GDP and earnings from big companies like McDonald's, BP, Shopify, Reddit and Coinbase.

On the fifth anniversary of Brexit, listen to this debate recorded at the Battle of Ideas festival 2024 on Saturday 19 October at Church House, Westminster. ORIGINAL INTRODUCTION In July, on the eve of the General Election, Keir Starmer was asked if he could foresee ‘any circumstances' in which the UK would rejoin the EU's single market ‘in his life'. His response was an emphatic ‘no'. Yet it is clear that Labour wants to ‘reset' the UK's relations with Europe. Reports in July suggested the German government wants to expand Starmer's offer of security cooperation into a ‘mega-deal' that encompasses everything from agricultural rules to the Erasmus student exchange programme. In the period after the UK left the EU, there were considerable difficulties for many businesses in working out how to trade with the EU, despite a deal that largely dispensed with tariffs on goods. Many difficulties remain – particularly with Northern Ireland's status, having a foot in both the EU and the UK markets. Many commentators believe leaving the single market was a mistake that is hitting the UK's economic growth. But others believe that Brexit has had little impact on the economy. The UK's economic problems are longstanding, they argue, and have much more to do with a lack of investment and slow productivity growth than with our trading relations with the EU. The pandemic lockdowns and the energy-price crisis were much more important ‘headwinds' than Brexit. Others believe recent UK administrations have failed to take full advantage of the post-Brexit freedoms to deregulate and pursue other national economic policy opportunities. Moreover, recent UK GDP figures compare favourably with similar countries – Germany, France and Italy – in the EU. Indeed, former European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi has admitted to having ‘nightmares' over Europe's lack of competitiveness and future economic prospects. And there are persistent concerns about being in the single market without being in the EU – that the UK would end up being a ‘rule taker' rather than a ‘rule maker' – while being obliged to accept free movement. How far can Starmer go in forging closer ties with the EU when there is little appetite for reviving the debate about Brexit? Has leaving the single market been an economic disaster as some claim? Or is this yesterday's news, distracting us from the policies we need at home to revive the economy? SPEAKERS Catherine McBride economist; fellow, Centre for Brexit Policy Ali Miraj broadcaster; founder, the Contrarian Prize; infrastructure financier; DJ Dr Thomas Sampson associate professor, LSE; associate in Trade programme, Centre for Economic Performance Gawain Towler former head of press, Reform UK CHAIR Phil Mullan writer, lecturer and business manager; author, Beyond Confrontation: globalists, nationalists and their discontents

Rachel Reeves Growth Watch - More Details Revealed Macro, Micro News for Monday 27th January 2025 ONLY 4 DAYS LEFT TO CLAIM 50% OF THE SHAREPICKERS INVESTMENT CLUB MACRO DeepSeek shocks AI world with 'cheap' Chinese chatbot Morgan Stanley also expects sub-1% UK GDP growth this year Reeves Growth Watch: Heathrow, Pensions EU customs group MICRO - WATCHLIST OR IGNORE Brave Bison #BBSN Concurrent Technologies #CNC Coral Products #CRU Fadel Partners #FADL Good Energy #GOOD hVIVO #HVO Ocean Harvest Technology #OHT PCI-PAL #PCIP Synectics #SNX Tekmar Group #TGP *****MY NEW BOOK***** How to Become a MicroCap Millionaire - A 3 Step Strategy for Stock Market Success  Is now on sale here: https://www.sharepickers.com/how-to-become-a-microcap-millionaire-3-step-strategy/ !!!HOW GET 50% OFF MEMBERSHIP TO THE SHAREPICKERS INVESTMENT CLUB!!! If you buy a copy of the book, then leave a 5 star rating & write a positive review, you can get yearly membership to the SharePickers Investment Club for just £99.50!!! !!! THIS IS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY 2025 !!! —---------------------------------------------------------------------- In this podcast I cover the Macro News relevant to the UK and monitor MicroCap Stocks to see if they're good enough to be added to the MicroCap League. The UK's first MicroCap League where 100's of small businesses are analysed and scored in relation to their growth, value, health, efficiency, momentum & potential. The company's that score the highest are added to the MicroCap League and possess the best risk / reward profile. —---------------------------------------------------------------------- IF YOU REGULARLY LISTEN TO THIS PODCAST AND ENJOY IT'S OUTPUT PLEASE CONSIDER GIVING IT A 5 STAR RATING AND REVIEW - THAT WAY MORE PEOPLE WILL FIND IT. THANK YOU

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets and saw money market pricing of cuts for this year return to around pre-NFP levels.US official said a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal was reached and will take effect on 19th January; the deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.Fed's Williams (voter) said he doesn't see higher yields reflecting a big inflation view shift and is not surprised bond yields have risen; Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he still sees continued progress on inflation.BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump's inauguration, according to Bloomberg citing several unnamed people.BoE's Taylor said he expects the underlying trend of inflation to remain on track towards the 2% target from now on and his base case on rate cuts is around 100bps this year.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market gained 1.0% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index & Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, NBP Policy Announcement, Treasury Secretary nomination hearing for Scott Bessent, Comments from BoC's Gravelle, Supply from Spain & the US, Earnings from Taylor Wimpey, Whitbread, Wise, Pearson, Richemont, TSMC, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, USB, PNC & Infosys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:(1) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on parts of a ceasefire agreement that looked set to pause more than 15 months of fighting in Gaza, risking completion of the long-awaited deal.(2) Britain’s economy narrowly returned to growth in November but fell short of expectations as the UK struggles to shake off concerns that the country is in the grip of stagflation.(3) Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.(4) President Joe Biden warned Americans of a “dangerous concentration of power” in the hands of a “very few ultra-wealthy people” and the impact he feared it would have on the country’s democracy as he delivered a farewell address Wednesday from the Oval Office.(5) The dry, dangerous winds that have kept fire-scarred Los Angeles on edge for days are finally forecast to end — but a lack of rain and another round of winds forecast next week already has officials worried.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:(1) Panama’s president rebuffed Donald Trump’s threat to reimpose US control over the Panama Canal, saying its shipping tolls aren’t inflated and that sovereignty over the waterway isn’t negotiable.(2) Donald Trump said Sunday that he will be president of the US — not Elon Musk.(3) French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is running out of time to meet his self-imposed deadline to name a new cabinet that won’t be quickly toppled by a no-confidence vote in parliament.(4) UK private sector activity is set for a “steep” decline in the next three months, the Confederation of British Industry said, putting immediate pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to show she can deliver economic growth in the new year.(5) The same kind of survey failures that have left the UK unsure about the number of people in Britain’s workforce are now raising doubts about the size of its economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Farmer is the Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems at Oxford's Institute for New Economic Thinking. Before joining Oxford in 2012, he worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Santa Fe Institute, where he studied complex systems and economic dynamics. During the 1990s, he took a break from academia to run a successful quantitative trading firm using statistical arbitrage strategies.Farmer has been a pioneer in chaos theory and complexity economics, including the development of agent-based models to understand economic phenomena. His work spans from housing markets to climate change, and he recently authored Making Sense of Chaos exploring complexity science and economic modeling.In This Episode* What is complexity economics? (1:23)* Compliment or replacement for traditional economics (6:55)* Modeling Covid-19 (11:12)* The state of the science (15:06)* How to approach economic growth (20:44)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. What is complexity economics? (1:23)We really can model the economy as something dynamic that can have its own business cycles that come from within the economy, rather than having the economy just settle down to doing something static unless it's hit by shocks all the time, as is the case in mainstream models.Pethokoukis: What does the sort of economics that people would learn, let's say, in the first year of college, they might learn about labor and capital, supply-demand equilibrium, rational expectations, maybe the importance of ideas. How does that differ from the kind of economics you are talking about? Are you looking at different factors?Farmer: We're really looking at a completely different way of doing economics. Rather than maximizing utility, which is really the central conceptual piece of any standard economic model, and writing down equations, and deducing the decision that does that, we simulate the economy.We assume that we identify who the agents in the and economy are, who's making the decisions, what information do they have available, we give them methods of making the decisions — decision-making rules or learning algorithms — and then they make decisions, those decisions have economic impact, that generates new information, other information may enter from the outside, they make decisions, and we just go around and around that loop in a computer simulation that tries to simulate what the economy does and how it works.You've been writing about this for some time. I would guess — perhaps I'm wrong — that just having more data and more computer power has been super helpful over the past 10 years, 20 years.It's been super helpful for us. We take much more advantage of that than the mainstream does. But yes, computers are a billion times more powerful now than they were when Herb Simon first suggested this way of doing things, and that means the time is ripe now because that's not a limiting factor anymore, as it was in the past.So if you're not looking at capital and labor per se, then what are the factors you're looking at?Well, we do look at capital and labor, we just look at them in a different way. Our models are concerned about how much capital is there to invest, what labor is available. We do have to assign firms production functions that tells, given an amount of capital and labor and all their other inputs, how much can the firms produce? That part of the idea is similar. It's a question of the way the decision about how much to produce is made, or the way consumers decide how much to consume, or laborers decide at what price to provide their labor. All those parts are different.Another difference — if I'm understanding it correctly — is, rather than thinking about economies that tend toward equilibrium and focusing how outside shocks may put an economy in disequilibrium, you're looking a lot more at what happens internally. Am I correct?We don't assume equilibrium. Equilibrium, it has two senses in economics: One is supply equals demand. We might or might not run a model where we assume that. In many models we don't, and if that happens, that's great, but it's an outcome of the model rather than an assumption we put in at the beginning.There's another sense of equilibrium, which is that everybody's strategy is lined up. You've had time to think about what you're doing, I've had time to think about what I'm doing, we've both come to the optimal decision for each of us to make, taking the other one into account. We don't assume that, as standard models typically do. We really can model the economy as something dynamic that can have its own business cycles that come from within the economy, rather than having the economy just settle down to doing something static unless it's hit by shocks all the time, as is the case in mainstream models. We still allow shocks to hit our models, but the economy can generate dynamics even without those shocks.This just popped in my head: To whom would this model make more intuitive sense, Karl Marx or Adam Smith?Adam Smith would like these models because they really allow for emergent behavior. That is, Smith's whole point was that the economy is more than the sum of its parts, that we get far more out of specializing than we do out of each acting like Robinson Crusoes. Our way of thinking about this gets at that very directly.Marx might actually like it too, perhaps for a different reason. Marx was insightful in understanding the economy as being like, what I call in the book, the “metabolism of civilization.” That is, he really did recognize the analogy between the economy and the metabolism, and viewed labor as what we put together with natural resources to make goods and services. So those aspects of the economy are also embodied in the kind of models we're making.I think they both like it, but for different reasons.Compliment or replacement for traditional economics (6:55)There are many problems where we can answer questions traditional methods can't even really ask.The way I may have framed my questions so far is that you are suggesting a replacement or alternative. Is what you're suggesting, is it one of those things, or is it a compliment, or is it just a way of looking at the world that's better at answering certain kinds of questions?I think the jury is out to find the answer to that. I think it is certainly a compliment, and that we're doing things very differently, and there are some problems where this method is particularly well-suited. There are many problems where we can answer questions traditional methods can't even really ask.That said, I think time will tell to what extent this replaces the traditional way of doing economics. I don't think it's going to replace everything that's done in traditional economics. I think it could replace 75 percent of it — but let me put an asterisk by that and say 75 percent of theory. Economists do many different things. One thing economists do is called econometrics, where they take data and they build models just based on the data to infer things that the data is telling them. We're not talking about that here. We're talking about theories where economists attempt to derive the decisions and economic outcomes from first principles based on utility maximization. That's what we're talking about providing an alternative to. The extent to which it replaces that will be seen as time will tell.When a big Wall Street bank wants to make a forecast, they're constantly incorporating the latest jobless claims numbers, industrial production numbers, and as those numbers get updated, they change their forecasts. You're not using any of that stuff?Well, no. We can potentially could ingest any kind of data about what's going on.But they're looking at big, top-down data while you're bottom-up, you're sort of trying to duplicate the actual actors in the economy.That is true, but we can adjust what's at the bottom to make sure we're matching initial conditions. So if somebody tells us, “This is the current value of unemployment,” we want to make sure that we're starting our model out, as we go forward, with the right level of unemployment. So we will unemploy some of the households in our model in order to make sure we're matching the state of unemployment right now and then we start our simulation running forward to see where the economy goes from here.I would think that the advent of these large language models would really take this kind of modeling to another level, because already I'm seeing lots of papers on their ability to . . . where people are trying to run experiments and, rather than using real people, they're just trying to use AI people, and the ability to create AI consumers, and AI in businesses — it would have to be a huge advance.Yes. This is starting to be experimented with for what we do. People are trying to use large language models to model how people actually make decisions, or let's say, to simulate the way people make decisions, as opposed to an idealized person that makes perfect decisions. That's a very promising line of attack to doing this kind of modeling.Large language models also can tell us about other things that allow us to match data. For example, if we want to use patents as an input in our modeling — not something we're doing yet, but we've done a lot of studies with patents — one can use large language models to match patents to firms to understand which firms will benefit from the patents and which firms won't. So there are many different ways that large language models are likely to enter going forward, and we're quite keen to take advantage of those.Modeling Covid-19 (11:12)We predicted a 21.5 percent hit to UK GDP in the second quarter of 2020. When the dust settled a year later, the right answer was 22.1. So we got very close.Tell me, briefly, about your work with the Covid outbreak back in 2020 and what your modeling said back then and how well it worked.When the pandemic broke out, we realized right away that this was a great opportunity to show the power of the kind of economic modeling that we do, because Covid was a very strong and very sudden shock. So it drove the economy far out of equilibrium. We were able to predict what Covid would do to the UK economy using two basic ideas: One is, we predicted the shock. We did that based on things like understanding a lot about occupational labor. The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles tables about things like, in a given occupation, how close together do people typically work? And so we assumed if they worked closer together than two meters, they weren't going to be able to go to their job. That combined with several other things allowed us to predict how big the shock would be.Our model predicted how that shock would be amplified through time by the action of the economy. So in the model we built, we put a representative firm in every sector of the economy and we assumed that if that firm didn't have the labor it needed, or if it didn't have the demand for its product, or if it didn't have the inputs it needed, it wouldn't be able to produce its product and the output would be reduced proportional to any of those three limiting factors.And so we started the model off on Day One with an inventory of inputs that we read out of a table that government statistical agencies had prepared for each sector of the economy. And we then just looked, “Well, does it have the labor? Does it have demand? Does it have the goods?” If yes, it can produce at its normal level. If it's lacking any of those, it's going to produce at a lower level. And our model knew the map of the economy, so it knew which industries are inputs to which other industries. So as the pandemic evolved day by day, we saw that some industries started to run out of inputs and that would reduce their output, which, in turn, could cause other industries to run out of their inputs, and so on.That produced quite a good prediction. We predicted a 21.5 percent hit to UK GDP in the second quarter of 2020. When the dust settled a year later, the right answer was 22.1. So we got very close. We predicted things pretty well, industry by industry. We didn't get them all exactly right, but the mistakes we made averaged out so that we got the overall output right, and we got it right through time.We ran the model on several different scenarios. At the time, this was in April of 2020, the United Kingdom was in a lockdown and they were trying to decide what to do next, and we tested several different scenarios for what they might do when they emerged from the full lockdown. The one that we thought was the least bad was keeping all the upstream industries like mining, and forestry, and so on open, but closing the downstream, customer-facing industries like retail businesses that have customers coming into their shop, or making them operate remotely. That was the one they picked. Already when they picked it, we predicted what would happen, and things unfolded roughly as we suggested they would.The state of the science (15:06)Mainstream models can only model shocks that come from outside the economy and how the economy responds to those shocks. But if you just let the model sit there and nothing changes, it will just settle down and the economy will never change.I'm old enough to remember the 1990s and remember a lot of talk about chaos and complexity, some of which even made it into the mainstream, and Jurassic Park, which may be the way most people heard a little bit about it. It's been 30 years. To what extent has it made inroads into economic modeling at central banks or Wall Street banks? Where's the state of the science? Though it sounds like you're really taking another step forward here with the book and some of your latest research.Maybe I could first begin just by saying that before Jurassic Park was made, I got a phone call and picked up the phone, and the other end of the line said, “Hi, this is Jeff Goldblum, have you ever heard of me?” I said, “Yeah.” And he said, “Well, we're making this movie about dinosaurs and stuff, and I'm going to play a chaos scientist, and I'm calling up some chaos scientists to see how they talk.” And so I talked to Jeff Goldblum for about a half an hour. A few of my other friends did too. So anyway, I like to think I had a tiny little bit of impact on the way he behaved in the movie. There were some parallels that it seemed like he had lifted.Chaos, it's an important underlying concept in explaining why the weather is hard to predict, it can explain some forms of heart arrhythmias, we use it to explain some of the irregular behavior of ice ages. In economics, it was tossed around in the '90s as something that might be important and rejected. As I described in the book, I think it was rejected for the wrong reasons.I'm proposing chaos, the role it plays in here is that, there's a debate about business cycles. Do they come from outside? The Covid pandemic was clearly a business cycle that came from outside. Or do they come from inside the economy? The 2008 financial crisis, I would say, is clearly one that came from inside the economy. Mainstream models can only model shocks that come from outside the economy and how the economy responds to those shocks. But if you just let the model sit there and nothing changes, it will just settle down and the economy will never change.In contrast, the kinds of models we build often show what we call endogenous business cycles, meaning business cycles that the model generates all on its own. Now then, you can ask, “Well, how could it do that?” Well, basically the only plausible way it can do that is through chaos. Because chaos has two properties: One is called sensitive dependence on initial conditions, meaning tiny changes in the present can cause large changes in the future; but the other is endogenous motion, meaning motion that comes from within the system itself, that happens spontaneously, even in very simple systems of equations.Would something like consumer pessimism, would that be an external shock or would something more internal where everybody, they're worried about the futures, then they stop spending as much money? How would that fit in?If the consumer pessimism is due to the fear of a nuclear war, I would say it's outside the economy, and so that's an external shock. But if it's caused by the fact that the economy just took a big nose dive for an internal reason, then it's part of the endogenous dynamicsI spent many years as a journalist writing about why the market's going up, the market's going down, and by the end of the day, I had to come up with a reason why the market moved, and I could — I wasn't always quite confident, because sometimes it wasn't because of a new piece of data, or an earnings report, they just kind of moved, and I had no real reason why, even though I had to come up . . . and of course it was when I was doing that was when people started talking about chaos, and it made a lot of intuitive sense to me that things seem to happen internally in ways that, at least at the time, were utterly unpredictable.Yeah, and in fact, one of the studies I discuss in the book is by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers — the Summers would be Larry Summers — where they did something very simple, they just got the 100 largest moves of the S&P index, they looked up what the news was the next day about why they occurred in the New York Times, and they subjectively marked the ones that they thought were internally driven, versus the ones that were real news, and they concluded they could only find news causes for about a third of them.There is always an explanation in the paper; actually, there is one day on the top 12 list where the New York Times simply said, “There appears to be no cause.” That was back in the '40s, I don't think journalists ever say that anymore. I don't think their paper allows them to do it, but that's probably the right answer about two-thirds of the time, unless you count things like “investors are worried,” and, as I point out in the book, if the person who invests your money isn't worried all the time, then you should fire them because investors should worry.There are internal dynamics to markets, I actually show some examples in the book of simple models that generate that kind of internal dynamics so that things change spontaneously.How to approach economic growth (20:44)I'm not saying something controversial when I say that technological change is the dominant driver of economic growth, at least for the economy as a whole. You recently founded a company, Macrocosm, trying to put some of these ideas to work to address climate change, which would seem to be a very natural use for this kind of thinking. What do you hope to achieve there?We hope to provide better guidance through the transition. We're trying to take the kind of things we've been doing as academics, but scale them up and reduce them to practice so they can be used day-in and day-out to make the decisions that policymakers and businesspeople need to make as the transition is unfolding. We hope to be able to guide policymakers about how effective their policies will be in reducing emissions, but also in keeping the economy going and in good shape. We hope to be able to advise businesses and investors about what investments to make to make a profit while we reduce emissions. And we think that things have changed so that climate change has really become an opportunity rather than a liability.I write a lot about economic growth and try to figure out how it works, what are the key factors. . . What insights can you give me, either on how you think about growth and, since I work at a think tank, the kind of policies you think policy makers should be thinking about, or how should they think about economic growth, since that seems to be on top-of-mind in every rich country in the world right now?I'm not saying something controversial when I say that technological change is the dominant driver of economic growth, at least for the economy as a whole. And we've spent a lot of time studying technological change by just collecting data and looking for the patterns in that data: What does the technology cost through time and how rapidly is it deployed? We've done this for 50 or 60 technologies where we look at past technological transitions, because typically, as a technology is coming in, it's replacing something else that's going out, and what we've seen are a couple of striking things:One is, many technologies don't really improve very much over time, at least in terms of cost. Fossil fuels cost about the same as they did 140 years ago once you adjust for inflation. In fact, anything we mine out of the ground costs about the same as it did a hundred years ago.In contrast, solar energy from solar photovoltaic panels costs 1/10,000th what it did when it was introduced in the Vanguard satellite in 1958. Transistors have been going down at 40 percent per year, so they cost about a billionth of what they did back in 1960. So some technologies really make rapid progress, and the economy evolves by reorganizing itself around the technologies that are making progress. So for example, photography used to be about chemistry and film. Photography now is about solid-state physics because it just unhitched from one wagon and hitched itself to another wagon, and that's what's happening through the energy transition. We're in the process of hitching our wagon to the technologies that have been making rapid progress, like solar energy, and wind energy, and lithium ion batteries, and hydrogen catalyzers based on green energy.I think we can learn a lot about the past, and I think that when we look at what the ride should be like, based on what we understand, we think the transition is going to happen faster than most people think, and we think it will be a net saving of moneySo then how do you deal with a wild card, which I think if you look at the past, nuclear power seems like it's super expensive, no progress being made, but, theoretically, there could be — at least in the United States — there could be lots of regulatory changes that make it easier to build. You have all these venture capital firms pouring money into these nuclear startups with small reactors, or even nuclear fusion. So a technology that seems like it's a mature technology, it might be easy to chart its future, all of a sudden maybe it's very different.I'm not arguing we should get rid of nuclear reactors until they run their normal lifetime and need to be gotten rid of, but I think we will see that that is not going to be the winning technology in the long run, just because it's going to remain expensive while solar energy is going to become dirt cheap.In the early days, nuclear power had faced a very favorable regulatory environment. The first nuclear reactors were built in the '50s. Until Three Mile Island and Chernobyl happened, it was a very regulatorily friendly environment and they didn't come down in cost. Other countries like France have been very pro-nuclear. They have very expensive electricity and will continue to do so.I think the key thing we need to do is focus on storage technologies like green hydrogen. Long-term storage batteries have already come down to a point where they're beginning to be competitive; they will continue to do so. And in the future, I think we'll get solid-state storage that will make things quite cheap and efficient, but I don't think small modular reactors are going to ever be able to catch up with solar and wind at this point.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were PromisedMicro Reads▶ Economics* United States Economic Forecast - Deloitte* The Hidden Threat to National Security Is Not Enough Workers - WSJ▶ Business* DOGE Can't Do It All. 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This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead. In US data, inflation is trending higher, pushing both yields and the dollar higher, and this is a definite warning signal for 2025. Job postings are continuing to fall, but small business sentiment is surging leading up to Trump's inauguration. Equity investors are looking the most bullish ever, as Nasdaq reaches new all-time highs. In China, yields are trending aggressively lower, not helped by further weakness in house prices and weaker than expected retail sales, but EV sales are surging. In Europe, France has been downgraded by Moody's to Aa3, and UK GDP unexpectedly contracted. UK-European relations will continue to face trade hurdles. Bitcoin is breaking out even higher, touching $106,500. Meanwhile, Brent price remains in a narrow range and silver is looking for support. Key events for the week include:Tuesday: US retail salesWednesday: Federal Reserve meeting (-24bp priced)Thursday: BOJ (+4bp priced), existing home salesFriday: PCE inflation data

APAC stocks traded lower across the board following a similar session on Wall Street, whilst sentiment was also hit after the Chinese Economic Work ConferenceES and NQ traded with gains overnight as SPX and NDX constituent Broadcom (AVGO) surged 14% post-earningsDXY held an upward bias and extended on gains after the incursion into 107.00 territory in late US trade; USD/JPY rose above 153.00European equity futures are indicative of a subdued cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed +0.1% on ThursdayLooking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance, UK GDP, EU Industrial Production, US Import/Export Prices, and Baker Hughes Rig CountClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam dives into Broadcom's impressive earnings surge, propelling the stock to a new all-time high. He also breaks down the latest ECB interest rate cut, the UK's underwhelming GDP figures, and what they mean for the next rate decision. Looking ahead, Sam explores whether BlackRock's recommendation of a 1-2% Bitcoin allocation in portfolios is a game-changer or cause for caution.

In a very Canadian episode of Cities 1.5, David discusses the urgent need for both local and global climate action with a focus on biodiversity with Mayor Valérie Plante of Montréal and Elizabeth Hendricks from the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Canada. They share insights on urban biodiversity initiatives, the impact and outcomes of COP15 and COP16, and the importance of integrating nature-based solutions to combat the climate crisis. The episode also highlights the critical role cities play in preserving natural ecosystems, supporting public health, and ensuring a sustainable future where all can thrive.Image Credit: Donovan Kelly @ PexelsFeatured guests:Mayor Valérie Plante has served as the Mayor of Montréal since 2017.Elizabeth Hendriks is a freshwater policy specialist and Vice President of Restoration and Regeneration at WWF Canada.Links: WWF Living Planet Report 2024: A Planet in CrisisDegradation of nature could reduce UK GDP by 12 per cent - UN Environment ProgrammeLast-minute pledges and sobering science: Where is the World, Post-COP28? Cities 1.5 podcast, featuring Professor Xuemei BaiArctic impacts: The human cost of melting ice - Cities 1.5 podcast, featuring Sheila Watt-CloutierCOP15 ends with landmark biodiversity agreement - UN Environment ProgrammeThe Darlington ecological corridor: a green link in CDN-NDG - City of MontréalVideo featuring Sadiq Khan, “Doers not Delayers” - C40 Cities InstagramMontréal Breaks Ground on City's Largest-Ever ‘Sponge Park' - Stormwater ReportMontréal biodomeWWF Canada re:grow programCOP16 ends in disarray and indecision despite biodiversity breakthroughs - The GuardianFreshwater Challenge websiteC40 Urban Nature Accelerator- C40If you want to learn more about the Journal of City Climate Policy and Economy, please visit our website: https://jccpe.utpjournals.press/Cities 1.5 is a podcast by University of Toronto Press and is produced in association with the Journal of City Climate Policy and Economy. Our executive producers are Calli Elipoulos and Peggy Whitfield.Produced by Jess Schmidt: https://jessdoespodcasting.com/Edited by Morgane Chambrin: https://www.morganechambrin.com/Music is by Lorna Gilfedder: https://origamipodcastservices.com/

APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data.Fed Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone as he stated that the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates; money markets now price in around a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December versus 80% pre-Powell.Chinese Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated.Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 2.0% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price, UK GDP, Services, US Retail Sales, Capacity Utilisation, BoC SLOS, Speakers include ECB's Lane & Cipollone, Fed's Collins & Williams, Earnings from BAE Systems & Alibaba.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam breaks down Warren Buffett's recent moves, highlighting his investments in Domino's and Pool Corporation, which saw gains following the announcement. He also covers the UK's disappointing GDP data and previews Alibaba's highly anticipated earnings report. To round out the episode, Sam discusses Bitcoin's stabilisation just below $90K and offers insights into what this could mean for the broader market.

In today's episode of The Daily Voice, Sam recaps the weekend's crypto market action, highlighting Bitcoin's surge alongside other assets. He also previews the week ahead, spotlighting key economic data releases, including UK GDP, jobs reports, and US CPI, as well as earnings from major companies like Alibaba, Disney, Spotify, and Cisco.

The week started with weak data, with global manufacturing PMIs contracting for the third straight month in September and with new orders dropping globally at the fastest rate in 11 months. But then services PMIs data surged higher, with the U.S. data at 54.9 (est 51.7) an 8-sigma beat. On Friday, payrolls unexpectedly surged +254K, way above expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite being fuelled by 785k government jobs, U.S. yields surged along with the dollar. The 2 year yield had its largest weekly gain in 2 years, and USDJPY its biggest weekly gain in 15 years. European data on the other hand continues to weaken and with Eurozone inflation now at 1.8% (below the ECBs 2% target) expect more aggressive rate cuts in Europe, and a weaker EURUSD. With Middle East tensions rising, and China back from Golden week holidays expect more volatility this week. Uncertainty in the middle east has led to a an increase in risk premiums and rises in crude oil prices. As costs of inputs increase the average consumer's struggles will likely increase. Key data releases this week are:Earnings weekWednesday- FED minutes, 10-yr bond auctionThursday - US CPI (est 2.3%), German retail salesFriday - U.S. PPI, consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP, Canada payrolls

On today's Daily Voice, Sam reviews last Friday's US jobs report and the changes it made to rate expectations. He also previews the upcoming week which includes a flurry of central bank minutes, US CPI, Canadian jobs report and UK GDP.

APAC stocks were mixed heading into month-end amid the backdrop of recent geopolitical escalation and as participants digested a slew of data releases.Chinese PMI data was overall mixed but included a contraction in both official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs.Reports suggest that Israeli forces are concentrated on the northern front and preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Friday.DXY is marginally softer, antipodeans lead across the majors, EUR/USD remains on a 1.11 handle, Cable is sub-1.34.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, German Import Prices & Retail Sales, German State/Nationwide CPI, Italian CPI, Chicago PMI, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, BoE's Greene.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

On today's Daily Voice, Sam reviews the US retail sales and Initial Jobless Claims numbers which helped propel markets higher, before previewing what we have on the agenda next week.

APAC stocks shrugged off the mixed lead from the US and gained as participants digested a slew of key data; Nikkei 225 was among the biggest gainers after GDP data topped forecasts.Chinese activity data was mixed as industrial production disappointed but retail sales topped forecasts; China's stats bureau said China's economic operation was generally stable in July and added domestic demand is likely to improve due to policy support.Fed's Bostic (voter) is open to a September rate cut as inflation cools, and noted the labour market is weakening but is not weak, according to the FT.European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Export/Import Prices, IJC, Retail Sales, Norges Bank Policy Announcement, Comments from Fed's Musalem, Harker & Norges Bank's Bache, Earnings from Zealand Pharma, Deere, Alibaba & Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Welcome to Macro, Micro News for Thursday 15th August 2024 UK GDP Shows Some Growth But Labour NEED to Improve On This MACRO NEWS The UK's economy grew by 0.6% between April and June There's been a "major breakthrough" in the long-running pay row involving train drivers US annual inflation rate dipped below 3% in July for the first time since 2021 MICRO NEWS Gattaca #GATC - trading update  Mpac Group #MPAC - Acquisition Robinson #RBN - interim results To receive my weekly tips visit www.sharepickers.com/tips PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. NOTHING I WRITE IN THE BLOG SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AN ENDORSEMENT OF THE COMPANIES MENTIONED. I PERSONALLY HOLD A POSITION IN THIS COMPANY BUT I HAVE A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO AND A STRATEGY THAT MANAGES MY RISK. ANY COMMENTARY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SUBJECTIVE. THIS SHOULD BE THE STARTING POINT OF YOUR RESEARCH, NOT THE BE-ALL AND END-ALL.

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, and Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Market uncertainty is rife. Key data from the US and UK may set the record straight. Chapters: Week Ahead Key Themes with Dominic Bunning (01:12), US (05:11), Europe (09:38), Asia (13:41)

Today, macro specialist James Brodie and research analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss Sunday's French legislative election second round and Thursday's UK General Election followed by their respective impacts on global markets and geopolitics.James and Harry also cover US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data for June, FOMC minutes, German and French industrial production, and perhaps most significantly, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data.The key data to look out for this week is:Tuesday 09 July: Fed Chair Powell testifiesWednesday 10 July: OPEC monthly report, China CPI & PPIThursday 11 July: US CPI, UK GDP & industrial productionFriday 12 July: US PPI, Uni Michigan consumer sentimentIf you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: James Brodie; https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/#macroeconomics #economics #stocks #stockmarket #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #podcast #trading #energy #inflation #employment #opec #oilswaps #election #UKelection #Labour #Conservatives #FrenchElection #Macron #LePen 

Today's guest carries out an incredibly important role representing the whole London Market in the UK's corridors of power. That means looking out for a market that wrote over $100bn in core gross written premium and controlled just under $160bn in all in 2022, increasing its global market share to over 8 per cent. That also means representing a market that now employs some 60,000 people and produces two percent of UK GDP and eight-and-a-half percent of London's GDP. Caroline Wagstaff, CEO of the London Market Group, was born to do a job like this. She's passionate and very difficult to say no to, but she's also a great communicator and is very good at reading a room and understanding a collective mood. The London Market Group (or the LMG) allows Lloyd's, Liiba, the IUA and the LMA to speak with one voice on broad London Market-related topics and in this Episode we dissect the LMG's latest London Matters Report and catch up with what is now top of the LMG's busy agenda. The Report is an essential companion to this episode and there will be a link to it in the Notes – I highly recommend a read – it isn't long and is packed full of very useful facts about the London market's place in the global risk ecosystem, as a well as its direction of travel. Caroline is on excellent form in this discussion and the podcast is crackling with energy. I for one am extremely glad that we have been able to get someone of her calibre to represent us as an industry. London has been doing relatively well of late but listening back to this recording it's clear that there is zero complacency at the LMG. It's clear that Caroline is not going to rest until the UK government and regulators are working harder to make it do even better. NOTES: The Latest London Matters report can be found here: https://lmg.london/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/London-Matters-2024-Data-Pack.pdf LINKS: We thank our naming sponsor AdvantageGo: https://www.advantagego.com/

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week's US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context. Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto production and exports says about what's been missing from the growing global row about Chinese industrial overcapacity.And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic. 

Will Bain explores whether working on a Friday is a thing of the past. Plus, we look ahead to UK GDP figures.

APAC stocks mostly tracked the gains in the US where a rise in initial jobless claims spurred a dovish reaction.European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% on Thursday.DXY is mildly firmer in what has been a quiet session for FX overnight, antipodeans marginally lag.Crude futures mildly extended on gains, Bunds remain afloat after the recent rebound.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, Canadian Jobs Data, BoC SLOOS, Chinese Money Supply, Comments from ECB's Cipollone & Elderson, BoE's Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Bowman, Logan, Kashkari & Barr, Supply from Italy. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

With the OECD having given its thoughts on global interest rates it says both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should keep rates higher for longer. While neither is expected to move traders will be keen to hear what each central bank has to say about the outlook. Also on the economic agenda is the first look at UK GDP for the first quarter. Will the economy have emerged from a shallow recession at the end of last year? On the corporate agenda, there's a short list of companies to watch including Walt Disney (DIS), Airbnb (ABNB) and IAG.Any opinion, news, research, analysis, or other information does not constitute investment or trading advice.Follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

APAC stocks traded mixed despite the gains on Wall St, with participants in the region cautious as they awaited the latest Chinese trade data. DXY was flat after mixed inflationary signals, EUR/USD remained lacklustre post-ECB, and USD/JPY took a breather and held on to the 153.00 status. ECB sources said as many as five officials needed extra convicting to hold back from rate cuts at Thursday's meeting and stronger-than-expected inflation data out of the US made policymakers more cautious. Israel is prepared for an Iranian strike from its territory in the next 48 hours, according to WSJ. European equity futures indicate a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed down 0.7% on Thursday. Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, Swedish CPIF, US Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), BoE Forecast Review, Comments from ECB's Elderson, Fed's Collins, Schmid, Bostic & Daly, Earnings from Blackrock, Wells Fargo, JNJ & Citi.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (02:15), we have CPI, the FOMC minutes and PPI. In Europe (07:00), it's the euro area Sentix, ECB policy meeting and UK GDP. Then it's the latest from Asia (11:15) with China and India CPI, RBNZ meeting as well as global markets all to discuss.

The latest guess at UK GDP in the fourth quarter left headline numbers unchanged, while the details shifted. Strike action undermined fourth quarter activity. The data will be revised for years to come, and history suggests it will be revised stronger. Things like productivity gains from flexible working and additional income streams from side hustles are harder to capture in early GDP guesses.

APAC stocks traded mixed as early momentum from the tech-led gains on Wall St was offset by Chinese developer default concerns.Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, Hitachi & Nippon Steel were among the companies that have responded to Japanese unions' wage hike demands in full.European equity futures indicate a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future unchanged after the cash market closed up 1.1% on Tuesday.DXY is steady below the 103 mark, USD/JPY trades around the 147.50 level, antipodeans marginally outperform.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, Services, Industrial Output, Trade Balance, EZ Industrial Production, ECB Operational Framework Review, Speech from ECB's Cipollone & RBNZ's Conway, Supply from Italy, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are firmer, with outperformance in the CAC 40 after several strong results; US equity futures firmer to a slightly lesser degree, though the RTY continues to outperformDollar is around flat, GBP softer and JPY firmer as the regions enter a technical recessionBonds are firmer after UK GDP data, numerous speakers aheadCrude is subdued in a continuation of price action yesterday; base metals are generally firmer amid the constructive risk toneLooking ahead, US NY Fed Manufacturing, US Export & Import Prices, IJC, Philly Fed data, US Retail Sales, Comments from ECB's Lane, BoE's Greene & Mann, RBNZ's Orr & Fed's Waller, Supply from US, Earnings from Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with the major indices mostly rangebound alongside geopolitical concerns and Chinese data.US and UK conducted a joint strike against Houthi targets in Yemen.Chinese trade data either improved or topped forecasts, while inflation figures were mixed but ultimately deflationary on a Y/Y basis.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 0.6% yesterday.DXY is caged in tight parameters, EUR/USD still capped by 1.10, USD/JPY remains on a 145 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, Output data & Trade Balance, French and Spanish CPI (Final), US PPI, ECB's Lane & Fed's Kashkari, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofA & Delta Airlines.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A group of MPs say the Government is "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to sourcing the minerals needed for tech like car batteries and wind turbines - we'll be finding out from a Conservative MP why it's such a concern.We'll be looking back on a busy week of economic data, with UK GDP surprisingly falling and interest rates - unsurprisingly - staying at 16-year highs.And we're going to find out why people in Japan will be sitting down with a bucket of KFC for Christmas.

Tom, Andrew, & Ben discussed rate rally pauses, UK GDP, Diageo Earnings, & Bank of America Economic.Report For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

Mortgage rates have risen to 6%. But are things as bad as when rates were much higher in the 1970s and 80s? We look at just how much pain today's rises mean. Also will there be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans today? And we look into a claim that the space industry supports 18% of the UK's economy. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Beth Ashmead Latham, Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown