Podcasts about us gdp

AI investment is exploding: the “Magnificent Seven” of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and NVIDIA, are ploughing almost 7% of US GDP into AI and data centres. That's the same scale as the US housing boom in 2006, and greater than the dot-com bubble at its peak. Today, just seven firms make up 34% of the S&P 500, the highest concentration in history. Earnings per share in these companies grew 37% last year, compared to just 6% in the rest of the index. But history warns us, RCA in the 1920s, dot-coms in the 1990s, that transformative technologies can change the world while destroying fortunes. The question now: is AI the next revolution, or the next bubble waiting to burst? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Ag Economy6:57 Soybean Hit Piece9:58 SREs11:15 Grain Standards Act12:13 Cattle Selloff14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)

Sometimes the best business stories start with a simple "why not?" That's exactly what happened when Luke Petherbridge, a Sydney-raised finance guy, got asked if he'd consider moving to Cleveland, Ohio. Fast-forward a few years, and he's now running Link - one of America's largest logistics operations with 1,100 staff, 3,500 buildings, and a staggering statistic: roughly 5% of US GDP flows through their facilities. In this month's Troubleshooters episode, we cover: • How the "last mile" revolution transformed logistics (and why your morning Amazon order arrives the same afternoon) • The career lessons Luke learned during his baptism of fire at the GFC - and why he tells his younger self that "character is forged in crisis" • How Link navigated COVID-19 while hiring 400+ people virtually and turning potential disaster into rocket-ship growth • The three ways Luke's team is deploying AI across their platform (spoiler: it's not what most businesses are doing) • Why Luke believes being "open to yes" and maintaining curiosity are the keys to building something meaningful The post Luke Petherbridge first appeared on Oasis Partners.

FAN MAIL--We would love YOUR feedback--Send us a Text MessageGermany's defeat in World War II wasn't merely a matter of battlefield losses but rather a predictable outcome rooted in fundamental strategic, economic, and leadership failures. Drawing from Victor Davis Hanson's masterful analysis in "The Second World Wars," this episode reveals the three decisive factors that sealed Nazi Germany's fate from the beginning.The first fatal flaw was Germany's profound economic weakness. Despite creating Europe's most formidable military machine, Germany simply lacked the industrial capacity to sustain a global conflict against enemies with vastly superior resources. The production disparities were staggering—by 1945, America's GDP alone exceeded all Axis powers combined. While German engineers developed advanced weapons, their resource constraints prevented effective mass production, creating an insurmountable disadvantage against Allied manufacturing might.Hitler's strategic overreach represents perhaps his most catastrophic error. After succeeding in limited border wars against weaker European states between 1939-1941, Hitler transformed what should have remained regional conflicts into a global war Germany couldn't possibly win. The critical turning point came with Operation Barbarossa in June 1941—invading the Soviet Union while still fighting Britain—a decision Hanson calls "probably the biggest blunder in military history." When Hitler then declared war on America following Pearl Harbor, he ensured Germany would face enemies whose combined population and industrial capacity made Allied victory mathematically inevitable.Most damning was Hitler's own strategic incompetence. Having never visited America, Britain, or Russia, he made decisions based on maps rather than understanding of terrain, climate, or logistics. He routinely overruled his generals, diverted resources from military objectives to implement the Holocaust, and relied on emotional fantasy rather than strategic reality. As Hanson notes, Hitler had "no blueprint to end the war-making power" of his enemies, dooming Germany from the moment he abandoned limited objectives for impossible global ambitions. Key Points from the Episode:• Economic weakness and limited industrial capacity made Germany unable to sustain a prolonged global conflict• By 1945, US GDP alone exceeded all Axis powers combined, creating an insurmountable production advantage• Operation Barbarossa created a fatal two-front war while Germany was still fighting Britain• Hitler's declaration of war against America brought the world's largest industrial power into the conflict• German forces lacked critical resources, especially oil, while facing enemies with superior manufacturing capabilities• Hitler had never visited America, Britain or Russia - the very countries he chose to fight• Resources were diverted from military objectives to implement the Holocaust• Germany's early victories (1939-1941) created a dangerous illusion of invincibility• The war was preventable, facilitated by Soviet collusion, American isolationism, and British-French appeasement• Once Allied industrial potential fully mobilized by 1942-43, Germany's defeat was mathematically certainBe sure to check out our show page at teammojoacademy.com, where we have everything we discussed in this podcast, as well as other great resources.Other resources: Liberty Minute #62--An Empire of WealthWant to leave a review? Click here, and if we earned a five-star review from you **high five and knuckle bumps**, we appreciate it greatl

US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that there are 11 strong Fed chair candidates, while he added they will start interviews after Labor Day and present a shortlist to President Trump.NVIDIA (-3.1%) shares were pressured post-earnings despite beating on top and bottom lines, as its revenue guidance was not as strong as some were hoping for and with questions remaining regarding chip sales to China.White House trade advisor Navarro said India can get 25% off tariffs if it stops buying Russian oil.APAC stocks were predominantly higher but with mixed trade seen throughout the session; European equity futures indicate a flat/mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss GDP (Q2), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), PCE (Q2), Jobless Claims, ECB Minutes, Speech from Fed's Waller, Supply from Italy & US, Earnings from Marvell, Dell, ULTA Beauty, Best Buy & Pernod Ricard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses erase early morning strength; NVIDIA (-1.9% pre-market) post-earnings.NVIDIA shares are pressured in pre-market trade despite beating on top and bottom lines, as its revenue guidance was not as strong as some were hoping for and with questions remaining regarding chip sales to China.USD is flat in quiet trade as FX majors trade in narrow ranges awaiting the next catalyst.Bonds see lacklustre trade in quiet newsflow as USTs eye 7yr supply and data.Crude choppy, gold on either side of USD 3,400/oz, base metals are mixed in narrow ranges.Looking ahead, US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), PCE (Q2), Jobless Claims, ECB Minutes, Speech from Fed's Waller, Supply from the US, Earnings from Marvell, Dell, ULTA Beauty, Best Buy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

August may be a seasonally-weaker month for markets, but for Summer Weather in Texas, it's hot! Lance shares weekend wedding events, and previews this week's economic data reports: Will inflation stoked by tariffs appear in the numbers? The only question that matters to investors his how the news will affect forward earnings estimates. There is now a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut by September; much will hinge on this week's CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data. Lance reviews the similarities and differences between the Dot Com bubble and the AI boom. (Lance's ADD is triggered by a story on a TV monitor about adult pacifiers.) Revenues are key to economic growth, and employment is critical. Commentary on debts, deficits, and student loan defaults. Markets are sitting in a contraction zone: 80% of market is not growing. Global growth forecasts are dismal; debt is not the problem. Debts and deficits are a feature of the economy, not a bug. SEG-1a: August Weather & Weddings in Texas SEG-1b: CPI, PPI, & Retail Sales: Will Tariff Inflation Show Up? SEG-2a:The Only Question That Matters - How Does it Affect Earnings? SEG-2b: AI Today is a Lot Like 1999 SEG-2c: Adult Pacifier Distraction SEG-2d: Revenue is What Generates Earnings SEG-2e: Wage Growth Isn't Increasing SEG-2f: IMF Growth Projections SEG-2g: The Debt & Deficits Problem Isn't What You Think Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fszx_pdp-sA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "US Economic Growth Shows Cracks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/us-economic-growth-shows-cracks/ "Meme Stock Trading & Livermore's Approach To Speculation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/meme-stock-trading-livermores-approach-to-speculation/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Set Up for Correction" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajVPyWtMA9I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Would a 20% Social Security Reduction Mean for Your Retirement?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eRpXL4yYQI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=55s ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #AllTimeHighs #USDollar #Gold #USEconomy #EconomicGrowth #MarketOutlook #GDPTrends #RecessionRisk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

August may be a seasonally-weaker month for markets, but for Summer Weather in Texas, it's hot! Lance shares weekend wedding events, and previews this week's economic data reports: Will inflation stoked by tariffs appear in the numbers? The only question that matters to investors his how the news will affect forward earnings estimates. There is now a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut by September; much will hinge on this week's CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data. Lance reviews the similarities and differences between the Dot Com bubble and the AI boom. (Lance's ADD is triggered by a story on a TV monitor about adult pacifiers.) Revenues are key to economic growth, and employment is critical. Commentary on debts, deficits, and student loan defaults. Markets are sitting in a contraction zone: 80% of market is not growing. Global growth forecasts are dismal; debt is not the problem. Debts and deficits are a feature of the economy, not a bug. SEG-1a: August Weather & Weddings in Texas SEG-1b: CPI, PPI, & Retail Sales: Will Tariff Inflation Show Up? SEG-2a:The Only Question That Matters - How Does it Affect Earnings? SEG-2b: AI Today is a Lot Like 1999 SEG-2c: Adult Pacifier Distraction SEG-2d: Revenue is What Generates Earnings SEG-2e: Wage Growth Isn't Increasing SEG-2f: IMF Growth Projections  SEG-2g: The Debt & Deficits Problem Isn't What You Think Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fszx_pdp-sA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "US Economic Growth Shows Cracks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/us-economic-growth-shows-cracks/ "Meme Stock Trading & Livermore's Approach To Speculation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/meme-stock-trading-livermores-approach-to-speculation/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Set Up for Correction" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajVPyWtMA9I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Would a 20% Social Security Reduction Mean for Your Retirement?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eRpXL4yYQI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=55s ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #AllTimeHighs #USDollar #Gold #USEconomy #EconomicGrowth #MarketOutlook #GDPTrends #RecessionRisk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Will the stock market crash? With the market continuing to march higher and setting record high after record high, I do worry more and more that a crash could be coming. It doesn't mean it will happen tomorrow, next week, or maybe even this year, but I do believe the risk to reward of investing in the S&P 500 at this point is not favorable when you take all the data into consideration. I have talked a lot about the fact that the top 10 companies now account for nearly 40% of the entire index and the forward P/E multiple of around 22x is well above the 30-year average of 17x, but there are also less discussed factors that are quite concerning. There is something called the Buffett Indicator that looks at the total US stock market value compared to US GDP. Buffet even made the claim at one point that this was “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." The problem here is that it now exceeds 200%, which is a historic high and well above even the tech boom when it peaked around 150%. Another concerning measure is the Shiller PE ratio, which looks at the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years in relation to the current price of the index. This is now at a multiple around 39x, which is well above the 30-year average of 28.3 and at a level that was only seen during the tech boom. While valuation isn't always the best indicator for what will happen in the next year, it has proven to be a successful tool for long term investing. Unfortunately, valuations aren't my only concern. Margin expansion is even more frightening as the reliance on debt can derail investors. Margin allows investors to buy stocks with debt, but the big problem is if there is a decline and a margin call comes the investor would either have to add more cash or make sells, which causes a further decline in the stock due to added selling pressure. Margin debt has now topped $1 trillion, which is a record, and it has grown very quickly considering there was an 18% increase in margin usage from April to June. This was one of the fastest two month increases on record and rivals the 24.6% increase in December 1999 and the 20.3% increase in May 2007. In case you forgot, both of the periods that followed did not end well for investors. Looking at margin as a share of GDP, it is now higher than during the dot-com bubble and near the all-time high that was reached in 2021. One other concern with the margin level is it does not include securities-based loans, which is another tool that leverages stock positions and if there is a decline could cause added selling pressure. Unfortunately, this data is not as easy to find since they are lumped in with consumer credit. The most recent estimate I could find was in Q1 2024, they totaled $138 billion and with the risk on mentality that has occurred, my assumption is the total would be even higher now. We have to remember that we now are essentially 18 years into a market that has always had a buy the dip mentality. Even pullbacks that occurred in 2020 and 2022 saw rebounds take place quite quickly. This has created a generation of investors that have not actually experienced a difficult market. I always encourage people to study the tech boom and bust as it was devastating for investors. The S&P 500 fell 49% in the fallout from the dotcom bubble and it took about 7 years to recover. Investors in the Nasdaq fared even worse as they saw a 79% drop and it took 15 years to get back to those record levels. Unfortunately, this isn't the only historical period that saw difficult returns. If you look back to the start of 1964, the Dow was at 874 and by the end of 1981 it gained just one point to 875. This was an extremely difficult period that saw Vietnam War spending, stagflation, and oil shocks, but it again illustrates that difficult markets with little to no advancement can occur. So, with all of this, how are we investing at this time? We are maintaining our value approach, which generally holds up much better in difficult markets. For comparison, the Russell 1000 Value index was actually up 7% in 2000 while the Russell 1000 Growth index fell 22.4% that year. We are also maintaining our highest cash position around 25% since at least 2007.  I continue to believe there are opportunities for investors, it just requires discipline and patience. One other person remaining patient at this time is Warren Buffett. Berkshire now has near a record cash hoard of $344.1 billion and the conglomerate has been a net seller of stocks for the 11th quarter in a row. I'd rather follow people like Buffett at times like this over the Meme traders that have become popular once again.   Consumers are doing a better job managing their credit card debt  Data released by Truist Bank analysts show that card holders of both higher and lower scores are doing a better job paying their bills on time. This is based on a drop in the rate of late payments from last quarter. Also improving is debt servicing payments as a percent of consumers disposable personal income. The first quarter shows debt-servicing payments were roughly 11% of disposable income, which is a strong ratio to see considering that level is below what was typical before the start of 2020 and it's far below the 15%-plus levels that were seen leading up to the Great Recession in 2008. According to Fed data, card loan growth was only 3% year over a year, which could be due to lenders increasing their credit standards. Stricter standards also made it more difficult for subprime borrowers to obtain new credit cards considering the fact that as a share of new card accounts, this category accounted for just 16% of all new accounts. This was down roughly 7% from the last quarter in 2022 when it was 23%. Consumers may also be more aware of the high interest costs considering rates stood at 22% as of May. There has been a decrease in rates from the peak last year, but Fed data reveals before interest rates began rising in 2022 interest rates stood at 16% for card accounts. If the Fed were to drop rates a couple of times between now and the end of the year, we could see a small decline in the rate. With that said borrowing money on a credit card and accruing interest is a terrible idea as even a 16% rate would not be worth it!    Real estate investors may be supporting the real estate market. This may sound like a good thing, but this could be dangerous long-term since investors don't live at the property. It would be far easier for them to default on the mortgage and let the house go into foreclosure or sell at a price well below market value just to get their investment back. So far in 2025 investors have accounted for roughly 30% of sales of both existing and newly built homes, which is the highest share on record. This is according to property analytics firm Cotality and they started tracking the sales 14 years ago. Most of these investors were small investors, who own fewer than 100 homes as they accounted for roughly 25% of all purchases. This compares to large investors which accounted for only 5% of purchases of new and existing homes. Within the small investor space, the stronger category is those with just 3-9 properties as this group has accounted for between 14 and 15% of all sales each month this year. The data also shows that the large investors like Invitation Homes and Progress Residential have become net sellers in the market and are selling more properties than they are buying. This is likely due to reduced rents from the high competition in the rental market and a softening of the overall real estate market in certain areas that has not provided the expected return that they wanted. I do worry that the small investor here has less access to good data and is less disciplined with their investment strategy. They are likely buying homes because real estate has been a good investment for the last several years, but if the market were to turn, they would be more likely to panic and sell and they may not have the means to continue holding the real estate. I do believe if interest rates remain, housing prices could remain stable or perhaps even drop a little bit. It's important to remember long term mortgage rates generally stem from longer term debt instruments like a 10-year Treasury, rather than the short-term discount rate set by the Fed.   Financial Planning: When and How a Refinance is Helpful After several years of elevated mortgage rates, steady declines have made more homeowners candidates for refinancing, but a smart decision requires looking beyond the headline interest rate. The first question is whether the refinance actually reduces the rate, and if so, what third-party closing costs and discount points are involved. Every mortgage carries these costs, and paying points may not make sense if rates are expected to fall further and another refinance could be on the horizon, especially since few 30-year mortgages last their full term before a sale or another refi. The structure of the new loan also matters: should costs be paid upfront or rolled into the loan balance, and how long will the loan likely be kept? The real goal is to borrow at the lowest overall cost over the life of the loan, factoring in both the rate and the cost to obtain it. A lower rate and payment may feel like a win, but without careful structuring, it may not be the most cost-effective move, something mortgage brokers often overlook when focusing solely on rate reduction. Here's a real example from just last week. A homeowner with a $580,000 mortgage at 6.875% and a $3,900 monthly payment has the opportunity to refinance to 5.5%, lowering the payment to $3,500 with no additional cash due at closing, and saving roughly $80,000 in total interest over the life of the loan. At first glance, this looks like a no-brainer. However, this structure would only be ideal if the homeowner never had another chance to refinance, which is unlikely given their current rate of 6.875%. In this case, all costs were rolled into a new loan balance of $616,000—an increase of $36,000—explaining why no cash was required at closing. A better approach might be to refinance to a rate only slightly lower than 6.875%, still reducing both the monthly payment and lifetime interest, but without dramatically increasing the loan balance by rolling in discount point costs. Refinances can continue as long as rates are expected to decline, and the best time to pay points is in a “final” refinance when rates are no longer expected to drop so the benefit can be locked in for the long term.   Companies Discussed: Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), Polaris Inc. (PII) & Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)

Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are pouring nearly $400B into AI infrastructure this year—more than the EU's defense budget and over 1% of US GDP. This wave rivals the fiber boom of the '90s and now outpaces consumer spending in driving US growth. Wall Street's tone has flipped, with Microsoft and Meta showing real AI revenue, while Google navigates supply limits and Amazon draws fire for moving slowly. It's a new era where infrastructure—not just code—defines dominance.Brought to you by:KPMG – Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://kpmg.com/ai⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about how KPMG can help you drive value with our AI solutions.Blitzy.com - Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blitzy.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to build enterprise software in days, not months AGNTCY - The AGNTCY is an open-source collective dedicated to building the Internet of Agents, enabling AI agents to communicate and collaborate seamlessly across frameworks. Join a community of engineers focused on high-quality multi-agent software and support the initiative at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠agntcy.org ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vanta - Simplify compliance - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://vanta.com/nlw⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Plumb - The automation platform for AI experts and consultants ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://useplumb.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Agent Readiness Audit from Superintelligent - Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://besuper.ai/ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠to request your company's agent readiness score.The AI Daily Brief helps you understand the most important news and discussions in AI. Subscribe to the podcast version of The AI Daily Brief wherever you listen: https://pod.link/1680633614Subscribe to the newsletter: https://aidailybrief.beehiiv.com/Join our Discord: https://bit.ly/aibreakdownInterested in sponsoring the show? nlw@breakdown.network

 Today's show dives into Trump's latest multi-country tariff war. What's the latest for August, a critical month. Latest Japan & EU deals as 'templates'.  Trump's phony announcement of both countries to invest $17 trillion in USA. Political tariffs attack on India, Brazil and BRICS. Russia 100%. Trump's retreat on China. What's up with Mexico & Canada? Key dates of August 8, 12.  Second half of show discusses latest US GDP numbers for April-June. Why US growth is NOT 3% but closer to 1% and the US economy is sliding toward stagnation or even recession. Why Trump's Big Bill on Taxes and Tariffs are a drag on US economic growth.

This episode examines the unprecedented global capital expenditure in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure. It quantifies this investment, currently estimated at approximately £410 billion annually, highlighting that this "Silicon Stimulus" is significantly propping up US GDP growth, masking underlying economic weaknesses.The report draws parallels with historical infrastructure booms like the 19th-century railroad expansion and the dot-com era's telecom buildout, noting that the AI boom's scale already surpasses the latter. A critical distinction is the short lifespan of AI hardware, particularly GPUs, which have an effective useful life of only one to three years, creating a "Capital Maintenance Trap" that necessitates continuous, massive investment.

Bank of Canada Holds rates again. Powell refuses to cut rates despite political pressures. US GDP comes in stronger than expected. Real Estate developers ask PM Carney to remove foreign buyer ban. Is Canadian media compromised by the CCP?Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings. Visit https://www.neighbourhoodholdings.com/looniehour to learn more!The Loonie Hour team is currently looking for a full-time content manager / social media curator! Email your application to looniehourjobs@gmail.com if you're interested!

Will Anthony Richardson be the Colts starting QB? Islamic State militant group claimed responsibility for a deadly attack that had killed at least 43 worshippers during a night mass at a church in eastern Congo. US and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce. Kevin O'Leary: Use any excess capital to reduce the national debt. That is the most important thing. US GDP increasing at a 3% annualized rate, largely due to trade swingsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tsunami hits Hawaii (no damage reported). White House Considers 'Pocket Rescissions' To Sidestep Congress: What To Know. Why is the Senate slow rolling judicial confirmations? Place your bets: Rates will probably hold. Katy Perry & Justin Trudeau out on a date. Of course, Gov. Hochul uses the NYC attack to push for gun control. Cincinnati Racial attack is not being covered by the MSM because it was racial. IMPD Officer Shot, Three Suspects Arrested, One is At Large. CHUCK SCHUMER FUMES: "If you don't think they wanna revert to Jim Crow, just look what they did in the SAVE Act! Skull refrigerator for sale on the Marketplace. The Democratic party already have a pre-October 7th mindset. New York Times stunningly rolls back claims about viral photo of starving Gaza boy. Megyn Kelly wants Israel to "wrap it up". Will Anthony Richardson be the Colts starting QB? Islamic State militant group claimed responsibility for a deadly attack that had killed at least 43 worshippers during a night mass at a church in eastern Congo. US and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce. Kevin O'Leary: Use any excess capital to reduce the national debt. That is the most important thing. US GDP increasing at a 3% annualized rate, largely due to trade swingsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Sasfin's David Shapiro runs us through the day's market moves, the rand, US GDP, interest rate expectations, the oil price, concerns over global tariffs, and the gold price. SAfm Market Update - Podcasts and live stream

In this episode of SB Talks, CEO Vincent O'Neill and CIO Nick Ryder unpack the latest US-EU trade deal and what it could mean for international markets. They break down the highlights from US earnings season, who is outperforming and where the cracks are showing. Over in Australia, fresh employment data could shake up the Reserve Bank's next decision. Plus, we're gearing up for a big week of economic releases: US GDP, a closely watched Fed meeting, and Australia's inflation readout.   Music provided by: Autumn Trumpet Background Corporate by LesFM | https://lesfm.net/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/free-music/all/ Creative Commons CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August first, as experts warn that trade disputes and policy shifts are putting the global economy under strain.美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周六威胁要从8月1日开始对来自墨西哥和欧盟的进口商品征收30%的关税，因为专家警告说，贸易争端和政策转变正在使全球经济面临压力。In an escalation of a trade war that has angered allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum that were posted on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.在一场激怒了盟友并让投资者感到不安的贸易战升级中，特朗普在周六发布在其Truth Social平台上的分别致欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩和墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢恩鲍姆的信中宣布了最新的关税。Both partners swiftly slammed the new duties, with the EU warning they could disrupt supply chains while Mexico branded them an "unfair deal".双方都迅速抨击了新关税，欧盟警告称，这些关税可能会扰乱供应链，而墨西哥则称其为“不公平协议”。French President Emmanuel Macron expressed "very strong disapproval" of the step and called on the EU to "resolutely defend European interests".法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙对这一举措表示“强烈反对”，并呼吁欧盟“坚决捍卫欧洲利益”。Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners last week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 percent up to 50 percent, as well as a 50 percent tariff on copper.特朗普上周向包括加拿大、日本和巴西在内的其他23个贸易伙伴发出了类似的信函，设定了从20%到50%的一揽子关税税率，以及对铜征收50%的关税。The 30 percent rate was "separate from all sectoral tariffs", he said, indicating that 50 percent levies on steel and aluminum imports and a 25 percent tariff on auto imports would remain.他说，30%的税率“与所有行业关税分开”，表明对钢铁和铝进口征收50%的关税，对汽车进口征收25%的关税。Trump's letter to the EU included a demand that Europe drop its own tariffs. "The European Union will allow complete, open market access to the United States, with no tariff being charged to us, in an attempt to reduce the large trade deficit," he wrote.特朗普给欧盟的信中要求欧洲取消自己的关税。他写道：“欧盟将允许美国完全、开放的市场准入，不向我们征收关税，以减少巨额贸易逆差。”。Von der Leyen said the 30 percent tariffs "would disrupt essential trans-Atlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic".冯德莱恩表示，30%的关税“将扰乱重要的跨大西洋供应链，损害大西洋两岸的企业、消费者和患者”。She also said that while the EU will continue to work toward a trade agreement, it "will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required".她还表示，尽管欧盟将继续努力达成贸易协定，但“将采取一切必要措施维护欧盟利益，包括在必要时采取相称的反制措施”。The Mexican government said it had been informed of the new threat during talks in the US on Friday.墨西哥政府表示，周五在美国举行的会谈中已获悉这一新威胁。"We mentioned at the table that it was an unfair deal and that we did not agree," the Mexican economy and foreign ministries said in a joint statement.墨西哥经济部和外交部在一份联合声明中表示：“我们在会议上提到，这是一项不公平的协议，我们不同意。”。Steven Kamin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Federal Reserve official, said these anti-trade policies of the Trump administration are dragging down US growth to 1.4 percent this year from 2.8 percent last year.美国企业研究所高级研究员、前美联储官员史蒂文·卡明表示，特朗普政府的这些反贸易政策正在将美国今年的经济增长率从去年的2.8%降至1.4%。"The Trump tariffs, which probably amount to about 15 percentage points higher than before Trump entered office, are a big contributor to the declining global growth,"“特朗普的关税可能比特朗普上任前高出约15个百分点，是全球经济增长下滑的一大原因。”Kamin said at a panel discussion hosted by the Washington-based Brookings Institution in partnership with the World Bank on Thursday.卡明周四在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会与世界银行联合主办的小组讨论会上说。He estimated the tariffs' direct hit at about 1 percent of US GDP but warned that retaliatory tariffs and falling investment could make things worse.他估计，关税的直接影响约为美国国内生产总值的1%，但警告说，报复性关税和投资下降可能会使情况变得更糟。The US economy has been holding up, he said. However, he raised concerns about Trump's protectionist approach, which has led to a 10 percent drop in the dollar's value this year. "It may reflect investor dismay with Trump's policies," Kamin said.他说，美国经济一直保持稳定。然而，他对特朗普的保护主义政策表示担忧，该政策导致今年美元贬值10%。“这可能反映了投资者对特朗普政策的失望，”卡明说。Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank and a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings, introduced the main points from the World Bank's June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, which says global growth is expected to drop to 2.3 percent this year, down 0.4 percentage points from January forecasts.世界银行副首席经济学家、布鲁金斯学会非居民高级研究员M.Ayhan Kose介绍了世界银行2025年6月《全球经济展望》报告的要点，该报告称，今年全球经济增长预计将降至2.3%，比1月份的预测低0.4个百分点。"There's much to cover, given the policy shifts, global deals, and unfolding developments," Kose said, noting that rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and financial market swings are driving the slowdown.Kose表示：“鉴于政策转变、全球交易和不断发展的事态，有很多事情要做。”他指出，贸易壁垒的增加、政策的不确定性和金融市场的波动正在推动经济放缓。Global trade growth is forecast to slide to 1.8 percent this year from last year's 3.4 percent, fueled by higher tariffs and uncertainty, he added.他补充道，在关税上调和不确定性的推动下，预计今年全球贸易增长率将从去年的3.4%降至1.8%。Debora Revoltella, chief economist at the European Investment Bank, said she saw a chance to shine despite global headwinds in Europe. She projected European growth at 1.5 percent this year, with tariffs trimming about 0.3 percent.欧洲投资银行首席经济学家Debora Revoltella表示，尽管欧洲面临全球逆风，但她看到了发光的机会。她预计今年欧洲经济增长率为1.5%，关税削减约0.3%。"I think at this moment, there is a strong sense of a unique opportunity for Europe after many years of lost opportunity," Revoltella said, pointing out that with a trade openness of 45 percent compared with 25 percent for the US, Europe is pushing trade deals with regions such as South America, India and Indonesia.Revoltella表示：“我认为，在多年失去机会之后，欧洲现在有一种强烈的独特机会感。”他指出，欧洲的贸易开放度为45%，而美国为25%，欧洲正在推动与南美、印度和印度尼西亚等地区的贸易协议。trade disputesn.贸易争端/treɪd dɪˈspjuːts/trade deficitn.贸易赤字/treɪd ˈdɛfɪsɪt/

Troy Helming is building the future of infrastructure with EarthGrid, a company developing an underground super grid network of tunnels across North America using revolutionary plasma torch technology. As a serial entrepreneur who founded two unicorns in the renewable energy space, Troy brings decades of experience in wind and solar power to solving one of the most critical infrastructure challenges of our time. EarthGrid has raised $63 million and secured an $18 billion joint venture commitment from the Kuwait Investment Authority to build 10,000 miles of underground tunnels over the next decade. Topics Discussed: EarthGrid's mission to build an underground super grid network using plasma torch excavation technology The massive infrastructure challenge of transmission line development in the United States Troy's journey from early solar exposure 45 years ago to founding multiple renewable energy companies The regulatory breakthrough of becoming a telecommunications utility in 46 states Overcoming the "supply problem, not demand problem" with over 20,000 potential customers in their pipeline The $18 billion joint venture with Kuwait Investment Authority's Enertech subsidiary Plasma torch technology's ability to cut through hard granite and other materials conventional machines cannot handle The vision for moving freight and eventually people through underground tunnel networks GTM Lessons For B2B Founders: Choose industries with structural supply-demand imbalances: Troy has successfully built three consecutive companies where demand far exceeds supply, eliminating the need for traditional sales teams. He specifically targets infrastructure sectors where "the need is so acute and there aren't that many companies doing it, and the ones that are, the demand exceeds the supply." B2B founders should research industries with massive unmet demand and limited competition, particularly in infrastructure where the barriers to entry are high but the market need is desperate. Solve regulatory risks early through strategic positioning: Rather than fighting regulatory battles, Troy transformed EarthGrid into a regulated telecommunications utility, gaining rights to build under public roads in 46 states representing 97% of US GDP. This strategic move eliminated the primary risk factor that kills most infrastructure projects. B2B founders should identify their biggest regulatory or compliance risks early and find creative ways to work within existing frameworks rather than against them. Build resilience through failure conditioning: Troy's experience with rock climbing and American Ninja Warrior taught him to "overcome the fear of people looking at you when you might fail" and to "shake it off, get back up and go again." After pitching over 2,000 times with a 97% rejection rate, he learned to treat fundraising as a numbers game rather than personal rejection. B2B founders should actively seek experiences that condition them for repeated failure, whether through athletics, public speaking, or other challenging pursuits that build mental resilience. Validate demand before building supply: EarthGrid already has "close to 20,000 potential customer contacts" and over 50 signed letters of intent before fully commercializing their technology. Troy validates market demand through extensive research and customer outreach before investing in full product development. B2B founders should spend significant time understanding their market's pain points and securing early customer commitments before building complex solutions. Leverage personal capital for strategic advantage: Troy's ability to "wait to start your company until you have enough money in the bank" prevents short-term financial pressures from forcing poor strategic decisions. His personal investment in EarthGrid (part of the $63 million raised) demonstrates commitment to investors while providing operational flexibility. B2B founders should consider how personal financial runway affects their ability to make optimal long-term decisions rather than being forced into suboptimal short-term choices.   //   Sponsors: Front Lines — We help B2B tech companies launch, manage, and grow podcasts that drive demand, awareness, and thought leadership. www.FrontLines.io The Global Talent Co. — We help tech startups find, vet, hire, pay, and retain amazing marketing talent that costs 50-70% less than the US & Europe.  www.GlobalTalent.co   //   Don't Miss: New Podcast Series — How I Hire Senior GTM leaders share the tactical hiring frameworks they use to build winning revenue teams. Hosted by Andy Mowat, who scaled 4 unicorns from $10M to $100M+ ARR and launched Whispered to help executives find their next role. Subscribe here: https://open.spotify.com/show/53yCHlPfLSMFimtv0riPyM   

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain notes that while US Retail Sales and GDP remain strong, consumer expectations are down – as sentiment is aligning more with stock market performance. Tune in this week to find out why headlines about consumer anxiety can be misleading for the broader economy.

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Opinionated Design: Early Reactions to Apple's Liquid Glass Design Language Big Tech Is Dealing Flat Design a Death Blow Apple gets over its hang-ups, and the iPad enters a new era Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI Upgrade Apple's de-chatbot-ification of AI is nearly complete Google launches Android 16, rolling out now to Pixel Google offers voluntary buyouts to US staff across several businesses and units, including the one housing its core search team and much of the ads organization IBM aims to build the world's first large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer by 2028 Blue Origin Delays Second New Glenn Launch Anne Wojcicki Wins Bidding for 23andMe Twenty-seven states and DC sue 23andMe to oppose the sale of DNA data from its customers without their direct consent YouTube says its ecosystem created 490K jobs and added $55B to the US GDP in 2024 God is hungry for Context: First thoughts on o3 pro Army reserve tech executives meta palantir Nintendo Switch 2 Is Fastest-Selling Game Console of All Time - Slashdot An Experimental New Dating Site Matches Singles Based on Their Browser Histories Anker recalls 1.1 million power banks due to fire hazard risk Local Malls Are Sitting Empty, and Becoming a Headache for Small Towns Bald eagle live cam update: Babies are leaving nest. What's next? Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Jason Hiner, Harry McCracken, and Jason Snell Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: oracle.com/twit Melissa.com/twit drata.com/weekintech expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security

Josh and special guest Monica Khan, Partner & Head of Digital at Strand, tackle everything that's fit to discuss in the creator economy this week. They discuss the increasing presence and influence of creators at major industry events like VivaTech and Cannes Lions. The conversation also covers a significant forecast from WPP, predicting that creator platforms will surpass traditional media in ad revenue by 2025. We also explore YouTube's substantial economic impact, contributing $55 billion to the U.S. GDP in 2024, and the broader implications of this growth for creators.Then: innovative brand partnerships, including Lowe's collaboration with MrBeast and their new Creator Partner Program, as well as Starbucks' new full time hire initiative, all in comparison to Ulta Beauty's employee ambassador initiative.0:00 Welcome Monica Khan to Creator Upload 0:44 Monica Khan at VivaTech in Paris 1:41 The Growing Creator Presence at VivaTech 2:50 Anticipation for Cannes Lions and Creator Impact 4:21 Cannes Lions: Business Gets Done for Creators 5:01 Creators Gaining a Seat at the Table 5:29 Creators Choosing Cannes Over VidCon 6:48 Traditional Media vs. Creator Platforms 7:34 WPP Predicts Creator Platforms to Exceed Old Media Ad Revenue by 2025 8:57 Validation for the Creator Economy 10:08 WPP's Influence on Ad Spend Towards Creators 11:32 The Future of Brand Investment in Creators 12:06 The Rise of Creator-Driven Platforms 13:37 YouTube's Economic Impact: $55 Billion to US GDP in 2024 14:55 The Ripple Effect of the Creator Economy 15:18 Creators Building Economic Value and Sustainability 16:46 Supporting the Creator Middle Class 18:04 The Bell Curve vs. Barbell Curve in the Creator Economy 19:52 Small Business Education for Creators 20:18 Why Brands are Working with Niche Creators 21:42 Studio-Led vs. Creator-Led Content 22:56 The Future of Cinema and Creator Influence 24:00 Studios Leveraging Social Platforms for Content Development 24:55 Lowe's Partners with Mr. Beast for Beast Games Season 2 27:05 Lowe's Creator Partner Program 27:33 Institutionalizing Creator Partnerships 28:49 Ulta Beauty's Employee Ambassador Program vs. Lowe's Scaled Program 31:38 Starbucks' 12-Month Creator Sponsorship 33:03 Upload: Major League Baseball Invests in Jomboy Media 35:28 MLB Embracing Fan-Led Storytelling 36:21 The Evolution of Creator Partnerships to Investment 36:46 Creative Freedom vs. Investment in Creator Partnerships 38:12 Upload: Mr. Beast Hires Former YouTube, TikTok, and Meta Exec Beau Avril 39:03 Beau Avril's Expertise and Impact on Mr. Beast's Partnerships 40:19 Connecting with Monica Khan on LinkedIn 41:01 Future of Creator Upload and Listener EngagementCreator Upload is your creator economy podcast, hosted by Lauren Schnipper and Joshua Cohen.Follow Lauren: https://www.linkedin.com/in/schnipper/Follow Josh: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuajcohen/Original music by London Bridge: https://www.instagram.com/londonbridgemusic/Edited and produced by Adam Conner: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamonbrand

In this episode, I sit down with Page Schult, co-founder and CEO of Topanga, who's tackling one of the food industry's biggest problems: massive waste and inefficiency. What started as a sustainable packaging company has evolved into an AI-powered kitchen intelligence platform that's helping colleges, hotels, and healthcare systems save millions by automating food waste tracking. Page walks me through her fascinating pivot from launching movies at Fox Film Studios to building technology that uses smart scales and image recognition to solve food service's data nightmare. She opens up about the unique dynamics of co-founding a company with her husband, the challenges of scaling from 15 to 30 employees, and why she believes decisiveness is everything in startup success. What really struck me was how they're not replacing kitchen workers - they're freeing them from spending 20+ hours a week in spreadsheets so they can actually cook. With food service representing 8% of US GDP, the opportunity here is massive, and Paige's team is just getting started. Host: Jake Aaron Villarreal, leads the top AI Recruitment Firm in Silicon Valley www.matchrelevant.com, uncovering stories of funded startups and goes behinds to scenes to tell their founders journey.  If you are growing AI Startup or have a great storytelling, email us at: jake.villarreal@matchrelevant.com

APAC stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned following NVIDIA's earnings and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.NVIDIA (NVDA) shares rose 4.9% after hours following earnings which beat on top and bottom lines despite incurring a USD 4.5bln charge in Q1; Q2 revenue outlook 45.0bln (exp. 46.4bln).US President Trump ordered US chip designers to stop selling to China, according to FT; US halts exporting aircraft engine technology and chip software to China, according to NYT.FOMC Minutes stated participants agreed they were well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales, Italian Industrial Sales, US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), Jobless Claims, SARB Policy Announcement, Swiss & Scandinavian Holiday, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler & Daly, BoE's Bailey & Breeden, Supply from Italy & US Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Dell, Gap, ULTA, Foot Locker, Best Buy & Kohl's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks boosted after NVIDIA's earnings and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.NVIDIA (NVDA) shares +6% pre-market following earnings which beat on top and bottom lines despite incurring a USD 4.5bln charge in Q1; Q2 revenue outlook 45.0bln (exp. 46.4bln).US President Trump ordered US chip designers to stop selling to China, according to FT; US halts exporting aircraft engine technology and chip software to China, according to NYT.DXY firmer & havens broadly lag given the risk tone; USTs/XAU both in the red.Looking ahead, Highlights include US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), Core PCE Prices (Q1), Jobless Claims, SARB Policy Announcement, Swiss & Scandinavian Holiday, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler & Daly, BoE's Bailey & Breeden, Supply from the US Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Dell, Gap, ULTA, Foot Locker, Best Buy & Kohl's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tariffs and stock market movements remained top of mind for consumers in May. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—showed modest improvement overall. Expectations for business conditions and the labor market inched up but stayed in pessimistic territory. The key bright spot was income expectations, which moved into positive territory, supported by a stronger stock market and early signs of progress on a trade deal with China.    Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, sits down with Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, and Erik Lundh, Senior Global Economist, to discuss the outlook for the US GDP, whether consumers are worried about a recession, and how the Fed might handle the current uncertainty.    00:38 Consumer Confidence in May   01:34 Impact of Tariffs and Financial Markets   04:08 Consumer Expectations and Spending   08:21 Inflation and Financial Concerns   13:03 Changes in US and Global Economic Forecasts   21:10 Factors Influencing Future Economic Outlook   22:46 Conclusion and Farewell  

Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain reviews that 1Q25 US GDP data and provides expert insight into the 0.3% decline and how it compares to a traditional recession. With many businesses still in the recovery phase of the business cycle, what do our indicators tell us about the future of the economy, and how can businesses best prepare for the upcoming years? Find out here!

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away' could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.

Today's show dissects the Trump-Zelensky Minerals Deal finally signed, concluding it's not at all like Trump's first deal in March. No US repayment for past US aid in this one and a back door is opened in the deal for US giving Ukraine more weapons again. And why were 3 documents drafted but we only get to know of one?  Second half of show discusses the preliminary US GDP for1st three months of 2025 showing a contraction of the US economy by -0.3%--due mostly to US businesses importing extra goods from offshore as a buffer for potential US tariffs on the horizon + US government spending cuts. Business investment continues rising (mostly inventories), housing and manufacturing contracting, and consumer spending rising at a rate half that of 4th quarter 2024.

A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectationshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarterhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Microsoft posted better than expected quarterly earnings on Wednesday, Spain is trying to figure out what caused a massive power outage, and the Conservatives are bracing for heavy losses in local England elections. Plus, the FT's Claire Jones explains what we can take away from the latest US GDP reading. Mentioned in this podcast:US and Ukraine sign natural resources dealMicrosoft shares jump after software giant's earnings top forecastsUS economy contracts at 0.3% rate as Trump tariffs prompt import surgeLocal elections: Tories braced for losses as England votes in five-party raceHow did Spain's electricity grid collapse?The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Trump speaks out on the economy as the U.S. GDP shrinks in the first three months of the year. Also, the U.S. and Ukraine sign a critical minerals deal after months of tense negotiations. Plus, a fan falls from the stands at a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. And, what Bill Belichick is saying about his recent high-profile interview and relationship with girlfriend Jordon Hudson.

Ryan and Emily discuss Trump bullies Amazon into major cave, US GDP shrinks amid tariffs, MAGA influencers go full cult in WH event, Trump falls for his own MS13 photoshop, US jet falls off ship dodging Houthi strikes, NYC woman attacked by Zionist mob speaks out, African journo says USAID does more harm than good. Chernoh Bah: https://www.amazon.com/Ebola-Outbreak-West-Africa-Multinationals/dp/0996973923 To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump unveiled more tariff relief for some carmakers, and shares in a number of companies surged in Tokyo after a plan for carmaker Toyota Motor to take one of its subsidiaries private. Plus, Wall Street economists forecast that US GDP shrank in the first quarter, and contrary to some stereotypes, Generation Z is leading the charge back to the office. Mentioned in this podcast:Wall Street banks predict GDP contraction after US trade deficit hits recordDonald Trump set to announce new car tariff climbdown in MichiganJapan shares surge after Toyota spurs hopes for wider corporate shake-upGen Z is leading the charge back to the officeThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US economy contracts during President Trump's first three months in office. GDP fell by 0.3%... Mr Trump blames former President Biden. Meanwhile China blames US tariffs for falls in its manufacturing figures... but there are more positive numbers in Europe. Also, Andrew Peach hears from the UN Assistant Secretary General about Afghanistan's economy under Taliban rule. And we'll hear why a fall in demand for diamonds is very damaging for Botswana.You can contact us on WhatsApp or send us a voicenote: +44 330 678 3033.

Tariff Announcement: President Trump announced a ten percent baseline tariff on virtually every country, with specific tariffs for individual countries ranging from ten to forty-nine percent. This is the highest rate of tariffs the United States has had in place since 1930. Political and Economic Implications: The announcement has caused anxiety and concern among people, with Democrats criticizing the move and Republicans defending it. The podcast discusses the potential outcomes, including the possibility of other countries lowering their tariffs in response, which could be beneficial for the American economy. Potential Risks: There are significant risks if other countries retaliate with their own tariffs, leading to a trade war and increased inflation. The impact on various industries, such as the automotive industry, is discussed, with concerns about rising prices for both new and used cars. Economic Analysis: The Tax Foundation's analysis predicts that if the tariffs remain in effect, imports will fall by twenty-eight percent, and the US GDP will shrink by 0.8 percent over the next decade. The tariffs could result in a significant tax increase for American consumers. Political Consequences: The outcome of these tariffs could influence the 2026 midterm elections, with potential repercussions for the Republican party if the economy suffers. Senator Cruz expresses hope for a positive outcome but acknowledges the high risks involved. Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson and the Ben Ferguson Show Podcast Wherever You get You're Podcasts. Thanks for Listening #seanhannity #hannity #marklevin #levin #charliekirk #megynkelly #tucker #tuckercarlson #glennbeck #benshapiro #shapiro #trump #sexton #bucksexton#rushlimbaugh #limbaugh #whitehouse #senate #congress #thehouse #democrats#republicans #conservative #senator #congressman #congressmen #congresswoman #capitol #president #vicepresident #POTUS #presidentoftheunitedstatesofamerica#SCOTUS #Supremecourt #DonaldTrump #PresidentDonaldTrump #DT #TedCruz #Benferguson #Verdict #justicecorrupted #UnwokeHowtoDefeatCulturalMarxisminAmericaYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades. Recession and stagflation April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) Bill Gates out with a big prediction The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades - Recession and stagflation - April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) - Bill Gates out with a big prediction - The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) Markets - Corrections happen - Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in? - Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report - Year end price targets - lowering - Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along? OpenAi - OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company. - The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital. - The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors. Google Trends - Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time. - Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs Friday is the UnEmp Report - Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2% - 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls ---- That would till be good numbers. Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on- - Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....) --- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025. - The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time - US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do? - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion. Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics...... - April 25, 1987 -  Radio Address.. - " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs. - https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4 Something to Consider... - Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway) -- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation" - - Has anyone considered: What if it does not? - The thought is that it needs to be "fair" Atlanta GDPNOW - Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad - January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9% - Latest April 1  -3.7%

Keith shares some historical perspective on inflation highlighting the cost of a Taco Bell meal in 1999 to its cost today. He also touches on the concept of service inflation, where services like mail delivery and self-checkout at grocery stores have become less convenient but not cheaper. Keith reviews the historical performance of real estate during the last eight recessions, noting that housing prices usually rise during recessions. He explains the concept of the Inflation Triple Crown: asset price inflation, debt debasement, and cash flow enhancement. Housing prices usually rise during recessions, as demonstrated by historical data. Resources: To learn more about the Inflation Triple Crown go to: getricheducation.com/itc. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/547 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is higher inflation or even hyper inflation now in our future, and is an imminent recession, or even worse, a depression lurking. What's it all mean for your investments and your real estate? We'll investigate exactly what happens to real estate during recessions, historically today, on get rich education,   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Hartsdale, New York to Springdale, Utah and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, you are inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. This is get rich education. Most people have two plans. Plan a get rich. If that doesn't work out, the alternative is Plan B, which is hate rich people.   We are firmly rooted in plan a for you here. So yes, we're about building your wealth, but ultimately we are a lifestyle improvement show. I'm going to get to high inflation and the potential for a recession or depression in just a minute. But I recently got a reminder on the fragility of life and its finite nature. My oldest friend recently died. He was almost like a mentor to me, a friend of mine's grandmother recently died, shattering her world, and it's a reminder that you won't be remembered for the money that you make. You won't even be remembered the real estate portfolio that you build. I mean, that surely won't last. The tennis that you serve, they'll die as well. I will be forgotten. This show will be forgotten. The people that love you, their opinions will die with them. Your Haters, their opinions will die with them. You can confirm that this is true right now by naming your eight great grandparents for me, there. Go ahead. You can't do it. I can't either. So what can you do, at least in this finite life that you have on earth? What you can do is enjoy your existence. The good news is, because you can control this, you can control enjoying your life and existence as get rich education is ultimately a lifestyle improvement show, and we are squarely helping you do that right here. And one way that I've done that over the years is by pointing out how inflation is actually advantageous to real estate investors. Well, it impoverishes most people. You're initiated on that by now. That's something that you really found out tangibly back during the pandemic. Now today, though, wow, people are frightened. I've got some contemporaneous material to share with you today, but I'll give you some lessons so that even if you're listening to this 10 years from now, you're going to learn some lessons. Americans inflation expectations for the next five years. They just hit the highest level since 1993 Yeah, expecting a lot of inflation, tariff pressures are a huge concern now. Last week, inside our newsletter, I sent you something that gave you some perspective on inflation. I sent you a photo of a Taco Bell receipt from 1999that might have left your mouth agape if you didn't see it. I'll tell you about it here and expand on this. And yes, it could leave you aghast, stupefied, gobsmacked, or even flabbergasted. In a sense, 1999 was not that long ago. It's sure not like ancient history. I mean, I was alive then, yes, I am here, and I'm from the 1900s. Well, this 1999 Taco Bell receipt that someone found perfectly preserved in the pages of a book. It shows a complete meal that was purchased for $3.50 it was actually just $3.26 and then the rest was tax added in. That's 350 for a chili cheese burrito, a taco nachos and a 16 ounce Pepsi. That's not the price for each item. That is the combined total from 1999 All right, how much do you think those same items would cost today? I don't eat there. I went to the Taco Bell website and found out. I mean, what an inflation measuring stick. This is what cost, 350 A Taco Bell in 1999 costs $11.44 today I use the same sales tax rate to come up with that. So today it's 1144 and today they also ask you a question a Taco Bell, if you want to round up for the kids or something like that, and then just watch, pretty soon, they're gonna request a tip too. That's a 327% price increase, and few people's wages have risen that much since 1999See, I told you that you would be left slack job and flabbergasted. All right, so let's look at where we are today. Now it's not an apples to apples comparison, but you know, Taco Bell is a fast food restaurant. Let's look at the price of a consumer item at a sports stadium today. All right, because both are places that everyday Americans frequent college basketball's March Madness tournaments have been taking place the last few weeks. Well, for the first time ever, the SEC is selling beer at its tournament. The price for one large premium draft beer is $17.50 so before tax or tip, 1750 for one beer all in that might be $20 or more, and I doubt that the beer is really that premium. I mean, you know what kind of beer you get at stadiums. So we look at inflation, one beer today is at least five times the cost of a complete Taco Bell meal in 1999   that's price inflation, and that's the stuff that's highly perceptible. Okay, you've been seeing that effect all of your life. It's making most people poorer. It's making real estate investors wealthier. And then there's the inflation that few people consider the less perceptible stuff, service inflation. And what are some examples of service inflation growing up the postal service delivered mail right to my parents porch, and they still do deliver mail right to my parents porch. Their neighborhood was built more than 100 years ago, but look, when new neighborhoods are built today, like places I've lived and perhaps where you live now, the postal service doesn't deliver your mail right to the individual mailbox on your porch. Today, you've got to walk both ways to your neighborhood's mailbox cluster. Some people even have to drive to get their mail. So your mail is no longer being delivered. Really, you have to go pick it up. Well, they don't lower the price for that reduced service level. That's service inflation. A second example is more obvious, grocery self checkout. You're taking the time and doing the work of scanning your groceries, but yet, they sure aren't lowering the prices of your lettuce and your beef jerky. And look service, inflation is here to stay. That is because companies make investments in it. The Postal Service bought those mailbox clusters, the supermarket bought those self checkout kiosks.    All right, so with this ramp and price inflation and service inflation, along with it, and the other forms of inflation that I've talked about on the show before, like stagflation, tip inflation and Shrink flation and skimpflation. What is an individual investor like you supposed to do? Well, stock and mutual fund investors get killed by inflation. I mean, think about it this way, just killed if the Sp5, 100 gains 10% but there's 5% inflation. That's a 50% hidden tax on your gain, plus you might pay capital gains tax. On top of that, savers really get obliterated. I mean, just destroyed if your bond yield or your savings account pays 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation. That is a 125% hidden tax on your gain, and then you might pay regular tax on top of that. So stocks and mutual funds and savings accounts are not the answer. What is the answer? Real Estate and borrowing the opposite of saving. And let me address now, whenever people get fearful that another wave of inflation is coming, whether that's tariff induced or otherwise, let's not get carried away and think that Hyperinflation is right around the corner, although definitions of hyperinflation vary, the most accepted one by economists is a 50% inflation rate per month, not annually, per month. So that would be over 600% a year, with compounding. I mean, that would be really hard to get, but what we do know is that inflation is still elevated above the Fed's 2% target. It's 2.8% today. And what we do know is that more inflation is coming at what rate nobody knows. These facts almost necessitate that you have either got to start your own business, which is tough, or become a real estate investor which is easier, in order to escape this and acquire some lasting wealth. Any devoted listener here knows that the formula for beating it is luckily, not highly sophisticated, not esoteric, not anything that you need a degree or certification for, just own income properties with loans, and that's when inflation produces three profit centers. As we know that is something that I coined as the inflation triple crown. So if you're new, you're learning something. If you've been around here for a while, here's a little comprehension test for you. What are the three crowns in the inflation Triple Crown, you win with asset price inflation, debt debasement and cash flow enhancement. Asset price inflation benefits you because you have leverage gains debt debasement passively lightens our debt burden for us, and then cash flow enhancement, that boosts our cash flow above the inflation rate, because our principal and interest payment stays fixed. And you can learn more about that totally free. You don't even have to leave your email address or anything. You can watch the three videos of the inflation Triple Crown at get rich education.com/itc. For inflation, Triple Crown, it's just good free learning for you there I've made available at get rich education.com/itc, it is a foundational financial education. Is a recession or even a depression eminent, that's straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments. Liquidity fund again. Text family, to 66866   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   you   Dani-Lynn Robison  15:45   This is freedom. Family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  16:00   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Wynne Holland, you are inside episode 547. I'll tell you, being a landlord or real estate investor can really change you now. I was using the stair climber at the gym just before talking to you today, I like to set up a big fan down on the floor to keep me cool before running or climbing. Plug it in, set up a fan. When I'm done, I turn off the fan. It's just a habit. I don't pay the electricity bill at my gym, but it's just the way that I would want to be treated. But you know what? When I find a fan that's already set up before I grab it and start on the treadmill. That fan is always running when no one is using it. No one turns off their fans when they don't have to pay for the electricity. And this reminds me of when I owned apartment buildings in Anchorage, Alaska, and tenants kept their windows open, even during the frigid winter, so that they could get fresh air. Yeah, you can guess who was paying the heating bill. It wasn't the tenant. It was me. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that the owner is the one that pays for more of the utilities. And of course, in that case, you can look into utility sub metering. That process can be costly, but it might be worth it. It can increase your cash flow and your net operating income, which, when it increases your net operating income, that means that it also increases the apartment buildings value. And you know, in real estate today, you've got to look for where the opportunities are. There are opportunities in every market today. For places where there are specifically good opportunities are apartment buildings where their values have fallen 20 to 30% in some markets, it's wise to invest in beaten down sectors that you just know are going to come back like you know, the demand for apartment buildings is going to be there long term. This doesn't mean that you want to invest in any beaten down sector, like Office real estate in general. I don't see how that's coming back. A second strong real estate opportunity today is to find over built pockets, especially ones that exist in Texas and Florida. I mean, this is why they call them buyers markets. A Texas or Florida seller might make you a deal, and that doesn't mean everywhere in these states. For example, Southwest Florida is one area that's specifically over built, even amidst the national landscape that's under built. A third and a fourth area of specific real estate opportunity today are two that I have mentioned before, but they persist. That is still brand new, properties where many builders are still motivated to buy down your mortgage rate to about 5% even 4.75% in some cases, and new builds have low insurance premiums too. And then a fourth opportunity. That's something that we've covered a good bit here these past few weeks. BRRRR, real estate investing, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. That's a specifically good strategy if you don't have, say, hundreds of 1000s of dollars in liquidity to invest. Now you might ask, do those four strategies have validity? Do they have cogency in today's market, where there are these fears of an economic slowdown. Oh, yes, they do, or I would not have gone over them, but these palpable recession Fears are growing, and some are even asking, is a new Great Depression eminent? There is tons of bad economic news right now, not just in the US, but the global economy is on the edge, starting earlier this month, stock market tremors have turned into full blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have just vaporized, wiped out. Investors are rattled, consumers are anxious. Business owners are confused, and those in power in the administration, they insist that tariffs and policy swings are all just part of a transition period, but a transition to what some have even asked, Is the everything bubble finally about to pop. Is this the brink of a recession or something even deeper, a D pressure? Well, one thing is undeniable, from stocks to crypto asset prices recently made a free fall, and I've got some long term lessons for you today, even if you're listening to this years from now, including what a phenomenon like this historically means for the real estate market, it's about what really happens to property values during an economic recession. Stocks recently had their worst week since 2023 barreling toward an all out bear market crash. A bear market means when 20% of the value has been lost from a recent high. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage has been everywhere. But yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the administration in power, whether you like them or not, they have introduced more and more radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Now, some of the tariffs could help long term, but the short term pain is perceptible, and you've got to be able to survive it. We've got new tariffs on multiple countries, and these are our biggest trading partners, even if these import taxes diminish, this is already strained friendships long term, especially with Canada. These countries keep retaliating with tariffs of their own, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees have been underway for a while now. This is not just an economic experiment. I mean, this is a high stakes gamble with global consequences. So is this a detox period, or is it an economic freefall? Treasury Secretary Scott tebescent described this economic shift as a necessary detox period. That's the phrase that he used, and yes, I need to acknowledge there is no more grandma Yellen running the Treasury for long time, listeners, that is a reference to the long running joke about how my late grandmother resembled former Fed chief and former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, but anyway, according to Besant, the US must break free from what he calls its addiction to government spending in return to private sector growth. Now, hey to me, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like a good plan for the long term. But here's the problem, that addiction has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades. And you know, this is something that regular GRE guest macroeconomist Richard Duncan has talked about when he's here. Remember what he's told us for over a decade here on the show, if the US doesn't have 2% real credit growth, credit expansion, well then we go into a recession. Well, what happens when the government cuts spending during soaring consumer prices due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? Well, the bad news is that tariff whiplash and massive layoffs mean that businesses can't plan, and when businesses can't plan, they freeze. Look, just the other day, I talked to the President of a manufacturing company they make stainless steel tube valves and fittings. Due to all the tariff uncertainty, he's had to set up a reserve account based on what happens next, all right. Well, with that reserve account, that means that that's not money that's going into equipment reinvestment, that's not money that's going into making new hires. What happens when more confidence shatters and markets spiral lower? We may be about to find out. So has the recession, which is a precursor to any depression, already begun? Well, the warning signs are multiplying. Most ominously at last check, the respected Atlanta Fed tracker is now forecasting a more than 2% contraction in US GDP this quarter. That is quite a drawdown and two negative GDP quarters in a row. I mean, that is the definition of what a technical recession is. And here's a quick history piece for you in 1930 to try to quell the effects of the Great Depression, tariffs were passed. Alright. Do you know how badly that turned out back then in 1930 it was called the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. It raised tariffs to try to collect more revenue for the government. It didn't work, and the US sunk deeper into the Great Depression, with rampant unemployment and poverty and social unrest. There was a rise in crime, there were bank failures, even hunger and malnutrition. That's what a depression looks like, right there. Well, back to today. Right now, consumer confidence is collapsing. Retail Sales are plunging. The bond market is signaling distress, and yet those in power appear kind of oblivious to the magnitude of the risk. So what if it's not a transition and it is a start of something far worse? And see, this is just part of what's made investors raise their bets on a recession. Stocks are down like a global trade war has begun. Crypto has fallen like risk appetite has collapsed. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining, and experts have priced in a 52% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Okay, 52 that's like flipping a coin and just hoping that it lands on good news. Now in the real estate world, when we talk about direct threats from tariffs, as I've touched on before, the biggest direct threats are tariffs on lumber and on gypsum board. The lumber is used in house framing and trusses. Gypsum board, that just means drywall, the base case for tariffs on Canadian lumber alone, that adds about $10,000 to the cost of a new build typical single family home, which in turn jacks up all existing housing prices and their replacement cost. But let's look beyond that now at market factors. How is real estate adversely affected if the economy slows? Though historically. Let's look at how recessions really affect housing prices, and this is, again, as I like to say, where we take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch about what you think is going to happen, but let's look at what has really happened. How do real estate prices perform during recessions. When we look at the last eight recessions, okay? And the most current of those was in 2020, and then when we go back eight recessions ago, that is the 1960s Okay. Well, let me move along in chronological order here, during those eight recessions, starting in the 1960s leading up to today, housing prices, and this includes single family homes up to multifamily apartment buildings, they were just rounding to the nearest whole number here, up 5% there in The late 60s, in that recession, and then up 18% up 14% in the next recession, and then no change, down 1% and then up 6% and then down 13% that was during the 18 month recession, around 2008 and then finally, home prices were up 8% in the latest recession, alright. So in our total of eight recessions since the 1960s home prices only fell significantly one time, and they usually rise that one timethey fell. Let's explore that. That was during the 2008 global financial crisis, which involved more than just the recession. It was a deep recession, that's why it's called the Great Recession, but it also involved more than that. 2008 was special because that was a time of housing oversupply and low homeowner equity positions and a complete mortgage meltdown backed by flimsy liar loans. Well today we are in the opposite of all three of those conditions. We have a housing under supply. Americans have a record 300k plus in protective equity that they are not going to walk away from. And more.   Underwriting is stringent, the opposite of a liar loan. So housing prices usually rise in recessions, and if we're teetering on the brink of a recession, there are a lot of reasons to think that housing prices will go up yet again. And by the way, I felt what was happening back in 2008 I invested through it. I think I let you know before that, that's when I owned two four Plex buildings, 2008 but it didn't feel that bad to me, because my properties were temporarily suppressed in value, and that part didn't feel good, but my rents and rental demand went up because no banks would give loans to borrowers to buy properties, so I wouldn't want to sell when the buildings were paying me a higher than ever monthly income. But let's not lose the greater point what I'm telling you here that housing only fell significantly one time through the last eight recessions. That demonstrates the resilience of the housing market. And by the way, those stats were sourced by the NAR and the NB er National Bureau of Economic Research. All right, so why is this? Why is housing resilient in the face of a recession? There are a few reasons, but a main one is see, even if and when times get tough, people still need a place to live, and they will pay for it, especially now, when they have record equity, people are motivated to make mortgage payments and make rent payments, or else they are going to be homeless. So tough times when consumers they get less likely to pay for their car loan are less likely to pay for student loans, and when they default on credit card payments, that's when this stuff happens, but people will fight like heck to avoid losing their home. I mean, people will pay for food, shelter and safety. And also, when it comes to recessions, let's not forget how many bad just God, awful, wrong recession calls there were from over the past two to three years. I mean, the so called experts were wrong, wrong, wrong. Today, the economy is actually starting from a good place. And what do I mean here today, consumers still have money to spend, and they probably will. This is huge, because consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but how will they respond when these higher tariff induced prices hit more shelves at Walmart and Target? We'll see unemployment is still so low that it's practically down there doing squats. But you know these numbers, they're always backward looking, so it does only aim to get worse. The labor market is firm. Interest rates have been pretty steady. They've fallen a little. Energy prices are still down. So really, the bottom line with what I've shown you so far is that federal policies have induced economic trauma, and it does increase the chance of recession over the next 12 months. During recessions, housing is a top performer, and interest rates usually fall as well, and specifically interest rates of all types, including the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, pretty much every interest rate type, they tend to fall in the mid and late stages of a recession. So this is what you can expect based on history, not hunches. But as for a depression, that is super unlikely. We haven't had one in 90 years, and today. I mean, come on, we have seen what the powers that be do. We can see how they respond to crises. They will just print and print and print more dollars to help pave over any problem. And that's not responsible long term, and it creates more inflation, but that's exactly what the government did to pull us out of the Great Recession and to pull us out of the COVID slowdown. We'll review what you've learned today in just a minute, but let me tell you, though you may very well have the majority of your capital smartly invested in real estate, since that's where the long term wealth creation is, those funds are not very liquid. So what about your liquid funds? Like I pointed out early in the show today, amidst higher inflation expectations, inflation really destroys those in the stock market, and it absolutely crushes savers. Savers really get destroyed, because if your bond yield or your savings account pays you 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation, that is a 125% hidden tax on your gain. And if that's the. Damaging enough there might be tax that you have to pay on that gain, which is not really a gain. This whole thing was a big loss.   So for some people, including me, what I do is become a lend. Lord, yes, I get a higher yield by lending to others a lend. Lord. I mean, why settle for just a, say, four and a half percent yield on your liquid funds? I mean, that's the level at both the 10 year bond and the savings account yield today, about four and a half percent. I've parked my own liquid funds for a steady 8% yield that I've been getting for years with a long time established real estate company. I make the loan to them, they have paid on time, every time, for that steady 8% return. And see, when you understand that directly investing in real estate pays five ways, and that a 20 to 30% total ROI, therefore is common and even expected. You can understand how they can pay you and me an 8% return on your liquid funds. You can see where the arbitrage is. Just a little insider tip here. It's called Freedom family investments. If you want to learn more, text family to 66 866. Their minimums are pretty low to 25k and you don't have to be accredited. So for steady 8% returns from the same place in the same vehicle where I've been getting my 8% you can just do it right now. What's on your mind? Text the word family to 66866.    Let's review what you've learned today, Americans have higher long term inflation expectations than they've had since 1993 a 1999 Taco Bell receipt really brings to light how much inflation you have experienced in your life. Though, higher inflation can come. Hyper inflation is unlikely. Let's not get carried away. The prospects for a recession are 52% in the next 12 months, per a plurality of experts, but a depression is really unlikely. Now you know how real estate performs in recessions and why it holds up so well it even tends to appreciate coming up here on the show are some prominent guests, including the leader of rezzy club. You might know about them. Sometimes I share their great charts in our newsletter. Yes, rezzy Club's Lance Lambert will be with us. Also, Legacy finance expert Laurel Langemeier will be here with us on another upcoming episode. Thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  37:53   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  38:16   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 6866 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 6866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.    

This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Happy Monday! Sam and Emma speak with Van Jackson, senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and writer of the Un-Diplomatic newsletter on SubStack, to discuss his recent book The Rivalry Peril: How Great-Power Competition Threatens Peace and Weakens Democracy, co-authored with Michael Brenes. First, Sam and Emma run through updates on Trump's tariffs on Mexico and Canada, fallout from the Trump/Vance confrontation with Zelenskyy, Trump's attempt to cook the books on the US GDP, Trump's newest crypto scam, US-based money laundering, RFK's measles dance, Marco Rubio's billions for Israel, Trump assault on Social Security, the DHS' IRS scheme, and the Mayoral Campaign of noted sex pest Andrew Cuomo, also admiring the full-throated spinelessness of GOP representatives Kieth Self and Roger Marshall when faced with constituent backlash at Town Halls. Van Jackson then joins, diving right into the effective myth the US has built up around the Cold War as a beneficial struggle between two great powers, a belief central to the evolution of the US' counter-insurgency-focused regime of primacy that has developed in the power vacuum left by the Soviet Union, and why the US Foreign policy apparatus has been so resolute, from the Cheneys to the Biden Administration, in pivoting to a new great power struggle with China. Expanding on this, Jackson walks through the last couple of decades of US-China hawkery, with the shrinking dividends of Neoliberal globalization pushing both the US and Chinese economies toward economic nationalism, with the US establishment frantically attempting to cling to a dying world order of complete US primacy, as it corrupts and reshapes our politics domestically while contributing to death and destruction globally. After tackling how the Trump to Biden to Trump 2.0 pipeline effectively streamlined the US' commitment to an anti-China pivot, and why Trump's buddies in Silicon Valley are set to benefit greatly from this tension, Van, Sam, and Emma wrap up by touching on the greater imperialist nature of Trump's foreign policy, and why US-Chinese relations have trapped much of the developing world into choosing between Chinese lending power and American hegemony. And in the Fun Half: Sam and Emma watch the new state-backed-media (the Joe Rogan Experience) clear the stage to let Elon Musk lie to the American public about what the Trump/Musk regime is up to (and why), and listen to Marjorie Taylor Greene's boytoy attempt to confront Zelenskyy about his fashion sense. They also parse through the ongoing crypto fraud of the Trump/Musk regime, and the insanity of Trump's push to use Crypto as a strategic reserve, plus, your calls and IMs! 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