Podcasts about us gdp

Tariff Announcement: President Trump announced a ten percent baseline tariff on virtually every country, with specific tariffs for individual countries ranging from ten to forty-nine percent. This is the highest rate of tariffs the United States has had in place since 1930. Political and Economic Implications: The announcement has caused anxiety and concern among people, with Democrats criticizing the move and Republicans defending it. The podcast discusses the potential outcomes, including the possibility of other countries lowering their tariffs in response, which could be beneficial for the American economy. Potential Risks: There are significant risks if other countries retaliate with their own tariffs, leading to a trade war and increased inflation. The impact on various industries, such as the automotive industry, is discussed, with concerns about rising prices for both new and used cars. Economic Analysis: The Tax Foundation's analysis predicts that if the tariffs remain in effect, imports will fall by twenty-eight percent, and the US GDP will shrink by 0.8 percent over the next decade. The tariffs could result in a significant tax increase for American consumers. Political Consequences: The outcome of these tariffs could influence the 2026 midterm elections, with potential repercussions for the Republican party if the economy suffers. Senator Cruz expresses hope for a positive outcome but acknowledges the high risks involved. Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson and the Ben Ferguson Show Podcast Wherever You get You're Podcasts. Thanks for Listening #seanhannity #hannity #marklevin #levin #charliekirk #megynkelly #tucker #tuckercarlson #glennbeck #benshapiro #shapiro #trump #sexton #bucksexton#rushlimbaugh #limbaugh #whitehouse #senate #congress #thehouse #democrats#republicans #conservative #senator #congressman #congressmen #congresswoman #capitol #president #vicepresident #POTUS #presidentoftheunitedstatesofamerica#SCOTUS #Supremecourt #DonaldTrump #PresidentDonaldTrump #DT #TedCruz #Benferguson #Verdict #justicecorrupted #UnwokeHowtoDefeatCulturalMarxisminAmericaYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades. Recession and stagflation April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) Bill Gates out with a big prediction The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades - Recession and stagflation - April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) - Bill Gates out with a big prediction - The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) Markets - Corrections happen - Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in? - Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report - Year end price targets - lowering - Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along? OpenAi - OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company. - The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital. - The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors. Google Trends - Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time. - Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs Friday is the UnEmp Report - Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2% - 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls ---- That would till be good numbers. Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on- - Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....) --- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025. - The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time - US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do? - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion. Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics...... - April 25, 1987 -  Radio Address.. - " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs. - https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4 Something to Consider... - Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway) -- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation" - - Has anyone considered: What if it does not? - The thought is that it needs to be "fair" Atlanta GDPNOW - Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad - January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9% - Latest April 1  -3.7%

Keith shares some historical perspective on inflation highlighting the cost of a Taco Bell meal in 1999 to its cost today. He also touches on the concept of service inflation, where services like mail delivery and self-checkout at grocery stores have become less convenient but not cheaper. Keith reviews the historical performance of real estate during the last eight recessions, noting that housing prices usually rise during recessions. He explains the concept of the Inflation Triple Crown: asset price inflation, debt debasement, and cash flow enhancement. Housing prices usually rise during recessions, as demonstrated by historical data. Resources: To learn more about the Inflation Triple Crown go to: getricheducation.com/itc. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/547 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is higher inflation or even hyper inflation now in our future, and is an imminent recession, or even worse, a depression lurking. What's it all mean for your investments and your real estate? We'll investigate exactly what happens to real estate during recessions, historically today, on get rich education,   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Hartsdale, New York to Springdale, Utah and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, you are inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. This is get rich education. Most people have two plans. Plan a get rich. If that doesn't work out, the alternative is Plan B, which is hate rich people.   We are firmly rooted in plan a for you here. So yes, we're about building your wealth, but ultimately we are a lifestyle improvement show. I'm going to get to high inflation and the potential for a recession or depression in just a minute. But I recently got a reminder on the fragility of life and its finite nature. My oldest friend recently died. He was almost like a mentor to me, a friend of mine's grandmother recently died, shattering her world, and it's a reminder that you won't be remembered for the money that you make. You won't even be remembered the real estate portfolio that you build. I mean, that surely won't last. The tennis that you serve, they'll die as well. I will be forgotten. This show will be forgotten. The people that love you, their opinions will die with them. Your Haters, their opinions will die with them. You can confirm that this is true right now by naming your eight great grandparents for me, there. Go ahead. You can't do it. I can't either. So what can you do, at least in this finite life that you have on earth? What you can do is enjoy your existence. The good news is, because you can control this, you can control enjoying your life and existence as get rich education is ultimately a lifestyle improvement show, and we are squarely helping you do that right here. And one way that I've done that over the years is by pointing out how inflation is actually advantageous to real estate investors. Well, it impoverishes most people. You're initiated on that by now. That's something that you really found out tangibly back during the pandemic. Now today, though, wow, people are frightened. I've got some contemporaneous material to share with you today, but I'll give you some lessons so that even if you're listening to this 10 years from now, you're going to learn some lessons. Americans inflation expectations for the next five years. They just hit the highest level since 1993 Yeah, expecting a lot of inflation, tariff pressures are a huge concern now. Last week, inside our newsletter, I sent you something that gave you some perspective on inflation. I sent you a photo of a Taco Bell receipt from 1999that might have left your mouth agape if you didn't see it. I'll tell you about it here and expand on this. And yes, it could leave you aghast, stupefied, gobsmacked, or even flabbergasted. In a sense, 1999 was not that long ago. It's sure not like ancient history. I mean, I was alive then, yes, I am here, and I'm from the 1900s. Well, this 1999 Taco Bell receipt that someone found perfectly preserved in the pages of a book. It shows a complete meal that was purchased for $3.50 it was actually just $3.26 and then the rest was tax added in. That's 350 for a chili cheese burrito, a taco nachos and a 16 ounce Pepsi. That's not the price for each item. That is the combined total from 1999 All right, how much do you think those same items would cost today? I don't eat there. I went to the Taco Bell website and found out. I mean, what an inflation measuring stick. This is what cost, 350 A Taco Bell in 1999 costs $11.44 today I use the same sales tax rate to come up with that. So today it's 1144 and today they also ask you a question a Taco Bell, if you want to round up for the kids or something like that, and then just watch, pretty soon, they're gonna request a tip too. That's a 327% price increase, and few people's wages have risen that much since 1999See, I told you that you would be left slack job and flabbergasted. All right, so let's look at where we are today. Now it's not an apples to apples comparison, but you know, Taco Bell is a fast food restaurant. Let's look at the price of a consumer item at a sports stadium today. All right, because both are places that everyday Americans frequent college basketball's March Madness tournaments have been taking place the last few weeks. Well, for the first time ever, the SEC is selling beer at its tournament. The price for one large premium draft beer is $17.50 so before tax or tip, 1750 for one beer all in that might be $20 or more, and I doubt that the beer is really that premium. I mean, you know what kind of beer you get at stadiums. So we look at inflation, one beer today is at least five times the cost of a complete Taco Bell meal in 1999   that's price inflation, and that's the stuff that's highly perceptible. Okay, you've been seeing that effect all of your life. It's making most people poorer. It's making real estate investors wealthier. And then there's the inflation that few people consider the less perceptible stuff, service inflation. And what are some examples of service inflation growing up the postal service delivered mail right to my parents porch, and they still do deliver mail right to my parents porch. Their neighborhood was built more than 100 years ago, but look, when new neighborhoods are built today, like places I've lived and perhaps where you live now, the postal service doesn't deliver your mail right to the individual mailbox on your porch. Today, you've got to walk both ways to your neighborhood's mailbox cluster. Some people even have to drive to get their mail. So your mail is no longer being delivered. Really, you have to go pick it up. Well, they don't lower the price for that reduced service level. That's service inflation. A second example is more obvious, grocery self checkout. You're taking the time and doing the work of scanning your groceries, but yet, they sure aren't lowering the prices of your lettuce and your beef jerky. And look service, inflation is here to stay. That is because companies make investments in it. The Postal Service bought those mailbox clusters, the supermarket bought those self checkout kiosks.    All right, so with this ramp and price inflation and service inflation, along with it, and the other forms of inflation that I've talked about on the show before, like stagflation, tip inflation and Shrink flation and skimpflation. What is an individual investor like you supposed to do? Well, stock and mutual fund investors get killed by inflation. I mean, think about it this way, just killed if the Sp5, 100 gains 10% but there's 5% inflation. That's a 50% hidden tax on your gain, plus you might pay capital gains tax. On top of that, savers really get obliterated. I mean, just destroyed if your bond yield or your savings account pays 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation. That is a 125% hidden tax on your gain, and then you might pay regular tax on top of that. So stocks and mutual funds and savings accounts are not the answer. What is the answer? Real Estate and borrowing the opposite of saving. And let me address now, whenever people get fearful that another wave of inflation is coming, whether that's tariff induced or otherwise, let's not get carried away and think that Hyperinflation is right around the corner, although definitions of hyperinflation vary, the most accepted one by economists is a 50% inflation rate per month, not annually, per month. So that would be over 600% a year, with compounding. I mean, that would be really hard to get, but what we do know is that inflation is still elevated above the Fed's 2% target. It's 2.8% today. And what we do know is that more inflation is coming at what rate nobody knows. These facts almost necessitate that you have either got to start your own business, which is tough, or become a real estate investor which is easier, in order to escape this and acquire some lasting wealth. Any devoted listener here knows that the formula for beating it is luckily, not highly sophisticated, not esoteric, not anything that you need a degree or certification for, just own income properties with loans, and that's when inflation produces three profit centers. As we know that is something that I coined as the inflation triple crown. So if you're new, you're learning something. If you've been around here for a while, here's a little comprehension test for you. What are the three crowns in the inflation Triple Crown, you win with asset price inflation, debt debasement and cash flow enhancement. Asset price inflation benefits you because you have leverage gains debt debasement passively lightens our debt burden for us, and then cash flow enhancement, that boosts our cash flow above the inflation rate, because our principal and interest payment stays fixed. And you can learn more about that totally free. You don't even have to leave your email address or anything. You can watch the three videos of the inflation Triple Crown at get rich education.com/itc. For inflation, Triple Crown, it's just good free learning for you there I've made available at get rich education.com/itc, it is a foundational financial education. Is a recession or even a depression eminent, that's straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments. Liquidity fund again. Text family, to 66866   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   you   Dani-Lynn Robison  15:45   This is freedom. Family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  16:00   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Wynne Holland, you are inside episode 547. I'll tell you, being a landlord or real estate investor can really change you now. I was using the stair climber at the gym just before talking to you today, I like to set up a big fan down on the floor to keep me cool before running or climbing. Plug it in, set up a fan. When I'm done, I turn off the fan. It's just a habit. I don't pay the electricity bill at my gym, but it's just the way that I would want to be treated. But you know what? When I find a fan that's already set up before I grab it and start on the treadmill. That fan is always running when no one is using it. No one turns off their fans when they don't have to pay for the electricity. And this reminds me of when I owned apartment buildings in Anchorage, Alaska, and tenants kept their windows open, even during the frigid winter, so that they could get fresh air. Yeah, you can guess who was paying the heating bill. It wasn't the tenant. It was me. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that the owner is the one that pays for more of the utilities. And of course, in that case, you can look into utility sub metering. That process can be costly, but it might be worth it. It can increase your cash flow and your net operating income, which, when it increases your net operating income, that means that it also increases the apartment buildings value. And you know, in real estate today, you've got to look for where the opportunities are. There are opportunities in every market today. For places where there are specifically good opportunities are apartment buildings where their values have fallen 20 to 30% in some markets, it's wise to invest in beaten down sectors that you just know are going to come back like you know, the demand for apartment buildings is going to be there long term. This doesn't mean that you want to invest in any beaten down sector, like Office real estate in general. I don't see how that's coming back. A second strong real estate opportunity today is to find over built pockets, especially ones that exist in Texas and Florida. I mean, this is why they call them buyers markets. A Texas or Florida seller might make you a deal, and that doesn't mean everywhere in these states. For example, Southwest Florida is one area that's specifically over built, even amidst the national landscape that's under built. A third and a fourth area of specific real estate opportunity today are two that I have mentioned before, but they persist. That is still brand new, properties where many builders are still motivated to buy down your mortgage rate to about 5% even 4.75% in some cases, and new builds have low insurance premiums too. And then a fourth opportunity. That's something that we've covered a good bit here these past few weeks. BRRRR, real estate investing, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. That's a specifically good strategy if you don't have, say, hundreds of 1000s of dollars in liquidity to invest. Now you might ask, do those four strategies have validity? Do they have cogency in today's market, where there are these fears of an economic slowdown. Oh, yes, they do, or I would not have gone over them, but these palpable recession Fears are growing, and some are even asking, is a new Great Depression eminent? There is tons of bad economic news right now, not just in the US, but the global economy is on the edge, starting earlier this month, stock market tremors have turned into full blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have just vaporized, wiped out. Investors are rattled, consumers are anxious. Business owners are confused, and those in power in the administration, they insist that tariffs and policy swings are all just part of a transition period, but a transition to what some have even asked, Is the everything bubble finally about to pop. Is this the brink of a recession or something even deeper, a D pressure? Well, one thing is undeniable, from stocks to crypto asset prices recently made a free fall, and I've got some long term lessons for you today, even if you're listening to this years from now, including what a phenomenon like this historically means for the real estate market, it's about what really happens to property values during an economic recession. Stocks recently had their worst week since 2023 barreling toward an all out bear market crash. A bear market means when 20% of the value has been lost from a recent high. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage has been everywhere. But yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the administration in power, whether you like them or not, they have introduced more and more radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Now, some of the tariffs could help long term, but the short term pain is perceptible, and you've got to be able to survive it. We've got new tariffs on multiple countries, and these are our biggest trading partners, even if these import taxes diminish, this is already strained friendships long term, especially with Canada. These countries keep retaliating with tariffs of their own, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees have been underway for a while now. This is not just an economic experiment. I mean, this is a high stakes gamble with global consequences. So is this a detox period, or is it an economic freefall? Treasury Secretary Scott tebescent described this economic shift as a necessary detox period. That's the phrase that he used, and yes, I need to acknowledge there is no more grandma Yellen running the Treasury for long time, listeners, that is a reference to the long running joke about how my late grandmother resembled former Fed chief and former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, but anyway, according to Besant, the US must break free from what he calls its addiction to government spending in return to private sector growth. Now, hey to me, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like a good plan for the long term. But here's the problem, that addiction has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades. And you know, this is something that regular GRE guest macroeconomist Richard Duncan has talked about when he's here. Remember what he's told us for over a decade here on the show, if the US doesn't have 2% real credit growth, credit expansion, well then we go into a recession. Well, what happens when the government cuts spending during soaring consumer prices due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? Well, the bad news is that tariff whiplash and massive layoffs mean that businesses can't plan, and when businesses can't plan, they freeze. Look, just the other day, I talked to the President of a manufacturing company they make stainless steel tube valves and fittings. Due to all the tariff uncertainty, he's had to set up a reserve account based on what happens next, all right. Well, with that reserve account, that means that that's not money that's going into equipment reinvestment, that's not money that's going into making new hires. What happens when more confidence shatters and markets spiral lower? We may be about to find out. So has the recession, which is a precursor to any depression, already begun? Well, the warning signs are multiplying. Most ominously at last check, the respected Atlanta Fed tracker is now forecasting a more than 2% contraction in US GDP this quarter. That is quite a drawdown and two negative GDP quarters in a row. I mean, that is the definition of what a technical recession is. And here's a quick history piece for you in 1930 to try to quell the effects of the Great Depression, tariffs were passed. Alright. Do you know how badly that turned out back then in 1930 it was called the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. It raised tariffs to try to collect more revenue for the government. It didn't work, and the US sunk deeper into the Great Depression, with rampant unemployment and poverty and social unrest. There was a rise in crime, there were bank failures, even hunger and malnutrition. That's what a depression looks like, right there. Well, back to today. Right now, consumer confidence is collapsing. Retail Sales are plunging. The bond market is signaling distress, and yet those in power appear kind of oblivious to the magnitude of the risk. So what if it's not a transition and it is a start of something far worse? And see, this is just part of what's made investors raise their bets on a recession. Stocks are down like a global trade war has begun. Crypto has fallen like risk appetite has collapsed. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining, and experts have priced in a 52% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Okay, 52 that's like flipping a coin and just hoping that it lands on good news. Now in the real estate world, when we talk about direct threats from tariffs, as I've touched on before, the biggest direct threats are tariffs on lumber and on gypsum board. The lumber is used in house framing and trusses. Gypsum board, that just means drywall, the base case for tariffs on Canadian lumber alone, that adds about $10,000 to the cost of a new build typical single family home, which in turn jacks up all existing housing prices and their replacement cost. But let's look beyond that now at market factors. How is real estate adversely affected if the economy slows? Though historically. Let's look at how recessions really affect housing prices, and this is, again, as I like to say, where we take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch about what you think is going to happen, but let's look at what has really happened. How do real estate prices perform during recessions. When we look at the last eight recessions, okay? And the most current of those was in 2020, and then when we go back eight recessions ago, that is the 1960s Okay. Well, let me move along in chronological order here, during those eight recessions, starting in the 1960s leading up to today, housing prices, and this includes single family homes up to multifamily apartment buildings, they were just rounding to the nearest whole number here, up 5% there in The late 60s, in that recession, and then up 18% up 14% in the next recession, and then no change, down 1% and then up 6% and then down 13% that was during the 18 month recession, around 2008 and then finally, home prices were up 8% in the latest recession, alright. So in our total of eight recessions since the 1960s home prices only fell significantly one time, and they usually rise that one timethey fell. Let's explore that. That was during the 2008 global financial crisis, which involved more than just the recession. It was a deep recession, that's why it's called the Great Recession, but it also involved more than that. 2008 was special because that was a time of housing oversupply and low homeowner equity positions and a complete mortgage meltdown backed by flimsy liar loans. Well today we are in the opposite of all three of those conditions. We have a housing under supply. Americans have a record 300k plus in protective equity that they are not going to walk away from. And more.   Underwriting is stringent, the opposite of a liar loan. So housing prices usually rise in recessions, and if we're teetering on the brink of a recession, there are a lot of reasons to think that housing prices will go up yet again. And by the way, I felt what was happening back in 2008 I invested through it. I think I let you know before that, that's when I owned two four Plex buildings, 2008 but it didn't feel that bad to me, because my properties were temporarily suppressed in value, and that part didn't feel good, but my rents and rental demand went up because no banks would give loans to borrowers to buy properties, so I wouldn't want to sell when the buildings were paying me a higher than ever monthly income. But let's not lose the greater point what I'm telling you here that housing only fell significantly one time through the last eight recessions. That demonstrates the resilience of the housing market. And by the way, those stats were sourced by the NAR and the NB er National Bureau of Economic Research. All right, so why is this? Why is housing resilient in the face of a recession? There are a few reasons, but a main one is see, even if and when times get tough, people still need a place to live, and they will pay for it, especially now, when they have record equity, people are motivated to make mortgage payments and make rent payments, or else they are going to be homeless. So tough times when consumers they get less likely to pay for their car loan are less likely to pay for student loans, and when they default on credit card payments, that's when this stuff happens, but people will fight like heck to avoid losing their home. I mean, people will pay for food, shelter and safety. And also, when it comes to recessions, let's not forget how many bad just God, awful, wrong recession calls there were from over the past two to three years. I mean, the so called experts were wrong, wrong, wrong. Today, the economy is actually starting from a good place. And what do I mean here today, consumers still have money to spend, and they probably will. This is huge, because consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but how will they respond when these higher tariff induced prices hit more shelves at Walmart and Target? We'll see unemployment is still so low that it's practically down there doing squats. But you know these numbers, they're always backward looking, so it does only aim to get worse. The labor market is firm. Interest rates have been pretty steady. They've fallen a little. Energy prices are still down. So really, the bottom line with what I've shown you so far is that federal policies have induced economic trauma, and it does increase the chance of recession over the next 12 months. During recessions, housing is a top performer, and interest rates usually fall as well, and specifically interest rates of all types, including the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, pretty much every interest rate type, they tend to fall in the mid and late stages of a recession. So this is what you can expect based on history, not hunches. But as for a depression, that is super unlikely. We haven't had one in 90 years, and today. I mean, come on, we have seen what the powers that be do. We can see how they respond to crises. They will just print and print and print more dollars to help pave over any problem. And that's not responsible long term, and it creates more inflation, but that's exactly what the government did to pull us out of the Great Recession and to pull us out of the COVID slowdown. We'll review what you've learned today in just a minute, but let me tell you, though you may very well have the majority of your capital smartly invested in real estate, since that's where the long term wealth creation is, those funds are not very liquid. So what about your liquid funds? Like I pointed out early in the show today, amidst higher inflation expectations, inflation really destroys those in the stock market, and it absolutely crushes savers. Savers really get destroyed, because if your bond yield or your savings account pays you 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation, that is a 125% hidden tax on your gain. And if that's the. Damaging enough there might be tax that you have to pay on that gain, which is not really a gain. This whole thing was a big loss.   So for some people, including me, what I do is become a lend. Lord, yes, I get a higher yield by lending to others a lend. Lord. I mean, why settle for just a, say, four and a half percent yield on your liquid funds? I mean, that's the level at both the 10 year bond and the savings account yield today, about four and a half percent. I've parked my own liquid funds for a steady 8% yield that I've been getting for years with a long time established real estate company. I make the loan to them, they have paid on time, every time, for that steady 8% return. And see, when you understand that directly investing in real estate pays five ways, and that a 20 to 30% total ROI, therefore is common and even expected. You can understand how they can pay you and me an 8% return on your liquid funds. You can see where the arbitrage is. Just a little insider tip here. It's called Freedom family investments. If you want to learn more, text family to 66 866. Their minimums are pretty low to 25k and you don't have to be accredited. So for steady 8% returns from the same place in the same vehicle where I've been getting my 8% you can just do it right now. What's on your mind? Text the word family to 66866.    Let's review what you've learned today, Americans have higher long term inflation expectations than they've had since 1993 a 1999 Taco Bell receipt really brings to light how much inflation you have experienced in your life. Though, higher inflation can come. Hyper inflation is unlikely. Let's not get carried away. The prospects for a recession are 52% in the next 12 months, per a plurality of experts, but a depression is really unlikely. Now you know how real estate performs in recessions and why it holds up so well it even tends to appreciate coming up here on the show are some prominent guests, including the leader of rezzy club. You might know about them. Sometimes I share their great charts in our newsletter. Yes, rezzy Club's Lance Lambert will be with us. Also, Legacy finance expert Laurel Langemeier will be here with us on another upcoming episode. Thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  37:53   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  38:16   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 6866 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 6866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.    

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with cautiousness seen after Trump's latest tariff salvoThe US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2ndTrump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenientEuropean equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.2% on WednesdayDXY lower after yesterday's session of gains, EUR is firmer despite Trump tariff plans, GBP is attempting to nurse recent lossesUkraine and the US discussed a halt of strikes on civilian facilities, but the US did not get support on this from RussiaLooking ahead, highlights include US GDP & PCE Final (Q4), Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI, Norges Bank & Banxico Policy Announcements, BoJ SOO, BoE's Dhingra, Riksbank's Bremen, Fed's Collins & Barkin, ECB's Schnabel, de Guindos & Lagarde, Norges Bank's Bache, Supply from UK & USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2ndTrump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenientUpdates which weigh on European equities with Auto names lagging, US futures mixed/firmerDXY mixed with GBP outperforming in an attempted recovery from Wednesday's action while JPY lagsEGBs and USTs diverge as they focus on growth and inflationary implications of the latest rhetoric respectivelyCrude benchmarks lower, TTF choppy, XAU gains and base metals slipLooking ahead, highlights include US GDP & PCE Final (Q4), Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI, Banxico Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoEʼs Dhingra, Fedʼs Collins & Barkin, ECBʼs Schnabel, de Guindos & Lagarde, Supply from the USClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US consumer confidence slumps into recession territory, Australia's Budget reveals a surprise tax cut, while future spending plans sit near expectations. Oil prices fall as Ukraine agrees a partial ceasefire. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny analyses how the Federal Open Markets Committee's projections for the US GDP have changed, and how rising uncertainty is hitting the world's largest economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Oil prices have been trading below their fair value since last September, a trend we attribute to the actions of Oil Vigilantes—a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will step in to stabilize the market and bolster prices. Yet, despite Brent prices trading near their lowest levels since December 2021, the OPEC alliance has chosen to proceed with its plan to gradually increase production starting in April. For the alliance to alter its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a substantial increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be necessary. So far, none of these conditions have materialized—the downgrades in US GDP have been nearly offset by growth upgrades in Europe and China, keeping our demand projections steady. While OECD inventories are 4% above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain 3% below their five-year averages.   This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937529-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

US equity futures are higher after Wednesday's gains. European markets opened little changed, and Asian equities ended mixed. Markets reacted positively to a dovish-leaning Fed policy decision. The Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled greater uncertainty around the economic outlook, driven largely by ongoing tariff concerns. Although policymakers downgraded the US GDP growth outlook and raised inflation forecasts, Chair Powell indicated that tariff-driven inflation pressures may be temporary. The Fed also decided to slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting April 1st. Elsewhere, Ukraine's President Zelenskiy voiced support for a ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure during discussions with President Trump, with both sides agreeing to collaborate on air defense systems and Ukraine's electricity supply.Companies Mentioned: SoftBank, Ampere, Carlyle, Oracle, Beacon Roofing Supply, QXO, NVIDIA, Intel

The US economy will growin 2025–26, but tariffs and other factors are dampening expectations.     The US economy is expected to grow by 2.0% this year and 1.7% in 2026, according to The Conference Board—both revised down from previous projections. What's driving this pessimism about economic growth, and could stagflation become a serious risk?    Join Steve Odland and guest Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior US Economist at The Conference Board Economy, Strategy & Finance Center, to find out what's driving this economic uncertainty, how tariffs could affect GDP and inflation, and why The Conference Board expects the Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts in 2025.      (00:21) Overview of the U.S. Economic Forecast (01:10) Factors Influencing GDP Growth (02:42) Consumer Confidence and Spending (05:42) Labor Market Projections (10:12) Inflation and Stagflation Concerns (12:05) Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions (17:25) Impact of Tariffs on the Economy (20:46) Global Economic Outlook   For more from The Conference Board:  Global Forecast Update  Tariff Tracker  What's Behind Conflicting US CEO & Consumer Confidence Readings? 

The Fed has just held US official interest rates, but has forecast slower growth and two more rate cuts. Traders pushed the US dollar and market interest rates down. Gold jumped to a new high. The Bank of Japan also holds, but is expected to keep hiking. Australian jobs data today is forecast to show more growth. NZ GDP is forecast to bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at Fiji's growth outlook and considers what is needed to drive growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

US retail sales are sluggish and dragging on US GDP growth. China's economy outperforms expectations, so ANZ Research lifts its China GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. New Zealand's housing market is stirring, but slowly. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing analyses China's fiscal response to soften the economic impact of US tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

White House Press Secretary said the CPI report is welcome news, and the Trump administration is focused on driving down costs; White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he expects US GDP growth to be 2.0%-2.5% in Q1, according to a Fox News interview.US Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said Senate Republicans do not have the votes to approve the House-passed government spending bill without amendments.APAC stocks were subdued as risk appetite soured despite the mostly positive handover from Wall St where sentiment was underpinned after softer-than-expected CPI data but with the upside capped as concerns lingered.DXY struggled for direction after yesterday's choppy performance and brief post-CPI wobble with price action contained overnight as a lack of fresh catalysts kept trade muted across the FX space.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production, US Initial Jobless Claims, US PPI, IEA OMR, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & de Guindos, Supply from Italy & US, Earnings from Dollar General, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, K+S, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank & Halma.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we start the week with current data that is almost certainly not indicative of what's to come. The policy landscape is in ferment.First in the week ahead however, locally it will be all about migration, retail sales, and a look a second look at 2025 inflation levels. In Australia their data releases will be about business and consumer sentiment, and industrial production.Elsewhere, India will release a CPI update. Canada's central bank will review its policy rate on Thursday (NZT) and is expected to cut it by -25 bps to 2.75%.In the US, upcoming updates will be for CPI and PPI, the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and January JOLTS job data.But first up today, weekend data releases from China confirmed they have slipped into a deflationary funk. Consumer prices fell -0.7% in February from a year ago (-0.5% was expected), and producer prices were down -2.2% (-2.1% was expected).China's consumer price decline was their first consumer deflation since January 2024, amid fading seasonal demand following the Spring Festival in late January. Food prices fell the most in 13 months, down -3.3%, dragged by a steep decrease in cost of fresh vegetables and a sharp slowdown in pork prices. Beef prices are down -13.3% from a year ago, lamb prices by -6.6%. Milk prices are down -1.4% on the same basis.China's producer prices are falling faster than consumer prices, but not really at an accelerating rate.Earlier in the weekend, China said its exports rose +2.3% in February, but that was notably less than the +5% rise expected. China's imports fell -8.4% when a +1% rise was expected. That means their merchandise trade balance rose to +US$170 bln, well above the January +US$142 bln and spiked by reactions to US trade and tariff policies. Their data shows a -US$1.1 bln February deficit in their trade with New Zealand. With Australia it was a -US$8.4 bln deficit.We may also get China new yuan loan data at the end of this week, although it is coming in a bit later, and weaker, these past few months.Despite all the US, China and global trade woes, the New York Fed's tracking of global supply chain pressures is reporting a pretty sanguine situation. Of course, that will undoubtedly change going forward.In the US, the February non-farm payrolls report showed the US economy added +151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the +160,000 expected. The January data was downwardly revised to +125,000 from the original +143,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.1%. We should note that virtually none of the DOGE cuts are reflected in this data. Their participation rate fell.The actual unadjusted rise in February from January was +891,000 in this payroll survey data, but that was less than seasonal factors would have usually delivered and less than the +1,065,000 gain in the same period in 2024. Including the unincorporated self-employed, the total number of employed people was 162.5 mln, and that was less than in January. The shift to company payrolls is still happening but slower, and the total number of people actually employed actually dropped. Average weekly earnings were up +3.4% from a year ago and that was their least in more than a year. (Over the past 12 months, that rise has averaged +3.7%, so a notable tailing off in February.)The US Fed boss Powell talked about the outlook for the US economy over the weekend, and commented that they see no reason to be cutting their policy rates any time soon.The US Fed's tightening process continues with their balance sheet now down to US$6.75 tln, down by -US$782 bln in a year and eating into its pandemic surge now. Pre-pandemic, it was a balance sheet equivalent to 19.0% of US GDP. It peaked at 35.4% in April 2022. Now it is back to 22.5% of GDP. So normalisation looms. (For reference the RBNZ balance sheet is also currently at 22.5% of our GDP.)In Canada, their February labour force data wasn't that flash. Full-time employment fell -20,000 while part-time employment rose +21,000. But their average hourly wages rose +4.0%. Their participation rate fell too. No-one expects this labour force data to improve while the tariff war hostilities build in 2025.The US president has threatened Canada again, this time with 'reciprocal' tariffs on dairy and timber. If he goes ahead, it will almost certainly backfire on Americans. Canada is already the US dairy industry's second largest export market and that market will almost certainly reject US goods. And Canadian timber is well-embedded into US house building. Trump wants US national forests harvested to replace Canadian supplies but that will take time to build volumes, and come at higher prices.In Australia, plans to call an April federal election have been shelved, partly because of the expected physical and financial clean up after tropical cyclone Alfred. There are now still more than ¼ mln people without electricity this morning, and the storm is lingering longer than expected and the flooding heavier. The new expected election date will be sometime in May. There will be a new Budget update there in three weeks, on Tuesday, March 25, 2025.In Western Australia, their incumbent Labor government won with a thumping majority, way better than anticipated.Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from Saturday at this time. Here is an update of Wall Street earnings for Q4-2024. It is pretty positive.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2911/oz and up +US$3 from Saturday.Oil prices are still just on US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are down -10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.6, and up +20 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,620 and down a net -5.6% from this time Saturday. That means it is given up all its gains after the US election in November. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US policy making has now become so chaotic, businesses are holding off making decisions. That can only have negative consequences.Firstly, US jobless claims rose modestly last week from the week before but this was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2.23 mln people on these benefits and back up near the October 2021 levels. The current consensus forecasts for tomorrow's release of the February non-farm payrolls is a rise of 160,000.But there might be some downside, if not in tomorrow's data, in the following set. The level of announced job cuts in February jumped to pandemic levels, and prior to that, to GFC levels. The Musk razor gang is getting some of the blame.The January American trade balance of both goods and services came in double the deficit of a year ago and an all-time record. Tariff policies have driven the change. For the year to January, their total trade deficit was -US$982 bln with a real surge from September to January and blowing it out to -3.4% of US GDP and a record high.Overnight the US announced delays on tariffs against Mexico. It is a never ending series of confusing 'definite' signals, none of which inspire confidence or allow for orderly business decision making. With Mexico, the situation has turned on its head in just four days. With Canada, Trump is ignoring what his Commerce Secretary said just one day ago, and US carmakers are in a real bind now.US wholesale inventories rose in January and their inventory to sales ratio rose too, ending a long period of improvement.Folding this data in gives the latest reading of Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for American Q1-2025 performance is now a -2.4% decline. Apart from the pandemic they won't have seen anything quite this dramatic since the GFC.Since its peak in December, the Tesla share price is continuing its fall, and it is only notable today because the value loss now exceeds -US$660 bln in that period. In NZD that is -$1.15 tln! That price is down another -5.6% so far today and filings show Tesla insiders are now selling.Going the other way, Canada's exports and their trade balance came in sharply positive. Exports were up +20% in January from a year ago and their trade surplus was its best since a brief spike in May 2022, and prior to that, best ever.The Malaysian central bank held its key interest rate at 3% for the tenth consecutive review during its overnight meeting, and that was in line with market expectations.In China, nothing meaningful or unexpected has come from their National People's Congress meetings.In Europe, the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the main refinancing rate to 2.65%. It was their sixth cut since the peak in September 2023 of 4.5%. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to +0.9% for 2025 and +1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.EU retail sales volumes fell -1.6% in January from the same month a year ago.In Australia, tropical cyclone Alfred has slowed its move toward the Brisbane coast but is still generating damage and will do for longer, even if it actually losing some of its destructive power. Tens of thousands of people are without power now.Container freight rates fell another -3% last week from the week before to be -30% lower than year ago levels and now 'only' +76% above pre-pandemic levels. Bulk freight rates were up +13% in the week however but down -36% from a year ago.Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2917/oz and little-changed from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc to under US$66/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$69/bbl. Lower expected demand expectations are the reason.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -20 bps at 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.7, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$90,265 and up a net +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Happy Monday! Sam and Emma speak with Van Jackson, senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and writer of the Un-Diplomatic newsletter on SubStack, to discuss his recent book The Rivalry Peril: How Great-Power Competition Threatens Peace and Weakens Democracy, co-authored with Michael Brenes. First, Sam and Emma run through updates on Trump's tariffs on Mexico and Canada, fallout from the Trump/Vance confrontation with Zelenskyy, Trump's attempt to cook the books on the US GDP, Trump's newest crypto scam, US-based money laundering, RFK's measles dance, Marco Rubio's billions for Israel, Trump assault on Social Security, the DHS' IRS scheme, and the Mayoral Campaign of noted sex pest Andrew Cuomo, also admiring the full-throated spinelessness of GOP representatives Kieth Self and Roger Marshall when faced with constituent backlash at Town Halls. Van Jackson then joins, diving right into the effective myth the US has built up around the Cold War as a beneficial struggle between two great powers, a belief central to the evolution of the US' counter-insurgency-focused regime of primacy that has developed in the power vacuum left by the Soviet Union, and why the US Foreign policy apparatus has been so resolute, from the Cheneys to the Biden Administration, in pivoting to a new great power struggle with China. Expanding on this, Jackson walks through the last couple of decades of US-China hawkery, with the shrinking dividends of Neoliberal globalization pushing both the US and Chinese economies toward economic nationalism, with the US establishment frantically attempting to cling to a dying world order of complete US primacy, as it corrupts and reshapes our politics domestically while contributing to death and destruction globally. After tackling how the Trump to Biden to Trump 2.0 pipeline effectively streamlined the US' commitment to an anti-China pivot, and why Trump's buddies in Silicon Valley are set to benefit greatly from this tension, Van, Sam, and Emma wrap up by touching on the greater imperialist nature of Trump's foreign policy, and why US-Chinese relations have trapped much of the developing world into choosing between Chinese lending power and American hegemony. And in the Fun Half: Sam and Emma watch the new state-backed-media (the Joe Rogan Experience) clear the stage to let Elon Musk lie to the American public about what the Trump/Musk regime is up to (and why), and listen to Marjorie Taylor Greene's boytoy attempt to confront Zelenskyy about his fashion sense. They also parse through the ongoing crypto fraud of the Trump/Musk regime, and the insanity of Trump's push to use Crypto as a strategic reserve, plus, your calls and IMs! Follow Van on Twitter here: https://x.com/realvanjackson Check out Van's book here: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300272895/the-rivalry-peril/ Check out the Un-Diplomatic newsletter here: https://www.un-diplomatic.com/ Become a member at JoinTheMajorityReport.com: https://fans.fm/majority/join Follow us on TikTok here!: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here!: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here!: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here!: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the ESVN YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/esvnshow Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase! 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Vikram Sharma, Operating Partner at S2G Investments on the massive opportunities of new technology for digitization and legacy industries. The former division president of Information Resources, or IRI, and former CEO of Shop Local says that 80% of US GDP comes from low-digitized industries, presenting significant opportunities for innovation.  An extraordinary combination of businessman, strategist and technologist, he argues that technology, while it might be scary, is coming to enable us. He says that in both the real world and the investment world, it's important to marry math and meaning, and that ROI with storytelling can inspire and drive transformation.#Business #Innovation #Technology

What does "GDP" actually mean? Are European value-added taxes really tariffs on America? Does the US need a sovereign wealth fund? Dominic Pino discusses these questions and more on the latest episode of Econception.

Keith discusses the impact of baby boomers on the housing market, noting that contrary to popular belief, many boomers are choosing to age in place. He also addresses the negative effects of gambling, particularly sports gambling, on young men, including financial ruin and increased bankruptcies. 54% of baby boomers state that they will never sell their homes.  People aged 55+ own more than half of U.S. homes. The overall population growth in the US has grown at its fastest rate since 2001, reaching over 340 million. Millennials and Gen Z, the largest generations, are driving future housing demand.  Resources: GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/541 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. All the baby boomers are about to sell off their homes and downsize, unleashing a glut of supply onto the market, and housing prices crash. Is there cogency to that theory or not? I give you a definitive answer, the Trump bump, then later, a pernicious vice is destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this. It's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides today on get rich education   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com.   Corey Coates  1:25   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:41   Welcome to GRE from Hyannis, Massachusetts to Hiram, Utah and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education episode 541 just another slack jawed and snaggletoothed podcaster here now a popular, I suppose, media narrative that's been out there for a long time is this premise that US housing prices are going to crash hard because all the aging baby boomers are going to sell their homes, and Boomers are the biggest generation in all of American history. This is just going to magnify the price collapse. It means far more home sellers than buyers. So soon enough, sellers will have to keep cutting prices. Everyone's going to undercut everybody to compete with all of these for sale homes. So as a result, everybody's property values are going to collapse today. Let's look at how bad it will get. Should you get ahead of this and sell it all now and then? I'll even tell you when this popular narrative will supposedly happen with boomers selling en masse, or won't it happen at all. That's what we're looking at, the term silver tsunami. You've probably heard that thrown around in the real estate world. It actually refers to pent up housing stock that older homeowners will eventually choose to sell, which would have that effect of flooding the market with all this new inventory. All right. Now let's define what we're talking about here. Baby Boomers are the generation born just after World War Two, between 1946 and 64 that makes them between the ages of 61 and 79 this year. Okay, so basically, these people are in their 60s and 70s. That's their age. My parents are baby boomers. President Trump is at the upper age limit for a boomer, but they're not all as old as you think. I mean the youngest baby boomers include Michelle Obama, Sandra Bullock and Rob Lowe. So not all boomers are like super old, but see, it is a big generation of over 76 million people. So whatever they do really moves the economy. And maybe you've heard it been said, My gosh, what if we have more dyers than buyers? But now a more nascent trend is that you hear about more and more boomers and people older than boomers not selling their home instead wanting to age in place. And that just means they want to stay in their home and not go to a nursing home or assisted living. And that was recently quantified in a survey that Housing Wire reported on it found that 54% of baby boomers say that they'll never sell their homes, some of them passing homes along as inheritance and see often that's because their home is paid off and assisted living care costs are through. To the roof, more than half of boomers don't have any mortgage at all. All right, so we've established that boomers aren't as old as most people think, and then a lot of them aren't planning to sell. But still, let's look for trouble here, because boomers are a huge group, and some portion of them are going to sell is they age, even if a lot of them say that they won't. How about the almost half of boomers with a mortgage? You know what? Here's the thing, if they downsized, like older people have traditionally done. I mean, my grandparents downsized long ago. But do you know what would happen if boomers downsized? Today? For most, their monthly mortgage payment would actually go up if they downsized. That's because of today's higher mortgage rates and home prices. And see, that's a financial reality that keeps them in place. They're never going to downsize. All right, so a lot of boomers are just not going to sell. But still, this wave of selling boomers crashing the housing market, this has been a popular narrative for, I don't know, maybe more than a decade. Now there's been a lot of smoke, so then where is the fire. That's another way to think about this. So there's got to be more to this. And there is, in fact, people age 55 plus, own more than half of the homes in the US. Did you know that? All right? Well, if we pull back from boomers, and let's just take a look at all homeowners of every age, people are staying in their homes longer, whether they're age 30 or 50 or 80, Americans now stay in the same home about 12 years. That is twice as long as 2005 Well, what that means is that homes don't come onto the market and people cannot buy what's not for sale. And then, of course, you've got the well documented interest rate lock in effect. That's a contributor here to people of all ages with 4% mortgages, they are reluctant to sell. And now what we're talking about here are demographics. Remember that quote, demography is destiny, the three word quote from 1800s era French philosopher Auguste Comte, and that's because it's completely predictable. If you're 32 years old today, in 10 years, you'll be 42 totally predictable. All right, if demographics could possibly crash housing crisis, let's step back and see what's going on with overall US, population growth. You know what? It just grew at its fastest rate since 2001 about a full 1% growth last year, yeah, we broke the 340 million population mark for the first time ever. And now, what about the portion that our immigrants, and what if a substantial amount of them get deported? I mean, after Trump settled into the White House for his second term, deportations began almost immediately. Is there enough population growth to buy from the boomers that do sell their homes? Well, if mortgage rates come down into the low fives, then maybe more boomers will sell and bring some more resale inventory onto the market. See, you need a good chunk, though, of buyers to come in from somewhere in order to support future housing prices. Well, where are those buyers going to be? Well, some people still don't realize that the largest generation in American history is, in fact, not baby boomers, it's millennials. They became the biggest group more than five years ago. In fact, Statista tells us that Gen Z isn't far behind them either. Yeah, Gen Z is almost as big as millennials as a group coming right behind them. And of course, this varies a little bit. Demographers parse the generations somewhat differently, but here's what the rise of the biggest generation means, millennials. They're aged 29 to 44 now, and there are over 70 million of them, and then almost as big the next group right behind them, Gen Z. They're ages 13 to 28 they alone number about 70 million themselves, even if you just completely leave the surge in immigration out of the picture and all the additional housing demand that immigration brings. So we're mainly just looking at the domestic side alone here. So. What's happened is that there were 4 million plus births per year from 1990 to 2010 providing a tailwind for housing demand through 2035, 2045, or later. Yeah, we had more births during many of those years than we did in the peak of the baby boom, which was 1957 like I've mentioned on the show before, the average age of a first time homebuyer is now a record high of 38 years old, per the NAR it's really taken a long time for some people to stop playing the video games and moving out of their parents basement. Okay, well, the peak birth year for the US was 2007 I just told you it was elevated between 1990 and 2010 but 2007 was that peak, alright? So take that peak and add 38 years to it, and you know what? The first time homebuyer demand is just going to continue to build, build, build, and not even reach its peak. Then until 2045 or so, the peak birth year 2007 plus 38 years, that is where the crush of future demand is coming from because that person born in 2007 on average, they're not even going to buy their first home until well into the 2040s   In fact, the number of Americans turning 35 every single year is High, and it just keeps increasing. It's over 4 million now, already up 25% since 2011 and this number of Americans turning 35 is going to keep rising for another decade or two. In fact, this year, it's going to approach 5 million Americans turning 35 new record territory coming. And I keep bringing this up because 35 is a key age, because by that time, almost everyone has moved out of their parents home, and so that's the time where people either need to rent or own themselves, pushing up both rents and prices, and that's why this wave of demand and pent up demand is just gonna keep coming. And by the way, those stats that I gave you there, they're all sourced from the US Census Bureau. I mean, this is exactly where the housing demand just keeps coming from. It's a big factor about why prices keep going up. The demand just keeps piling on, even though affordability worsened, the demand just keeps coming. And it's just going to keep on coming well in to the 2040s now it could very well ebb substantially by, say, the middle of the 2050s but we'll see, and that is still three decades away. And remember, all of this doesn't even include the additional population growth from immigration and how many non deportees that is going to add to the housing demand on top of this, and then, if that's not enough, there is even more future housing demand expected to come from the declining number of occupants per household. Yes, the reduced household size that Stokes housing demand. I touched on this with you a little before on a prior show. But let me go deeper as we continue to corrode this more dyers than buyers. Theory, as we break this down, people have smaller families today. I think everybody knows that back in 1960 there were 3.3 occupants per household. Today, it's just two and a half. And to give you a simple example of how this itself keeps stoking the housing demand, just say that there's a village of 100 people with three occupants per household, they would need 33 and 1/3 homes over time, when that drops to two occupants per household, that's the direction we're going now that same village needs 50 homes just in order to accommodate the shift in household structure. Well, 50 homes is 50% more than 33 and a third, well, that means 50% more homes are needed, and that's even in a scenario where the population stays the same. Yet it's not staying the same, it's rising, and the population is really rising fast for that key household form. Population age range of 35 to 38 years old. Fewer Americans are living together. I expect the housing market to continue shifting toward smaller household counts. One person households will keep rising. I expect that to be one of the most impactful housing trends of this entire 21st century, and it's also really helping fuel a loneliness epidemic, which is another subject unto itself. Well, the three main drivers of this rise in single person households is that first people are delaying those major life events compared to previous generations. They're attending school longer. They're marrying later. They're buying homes later. They're having children later. And as these events are postponed, the time some young adults spend living alone or without children increases. They're playing video games longer as well. The second driver of these single person households is falling. Birth rates when people have children, many are having fewer than previous generations, reducing the average household size. That's pretty obvious. And then third the population composition is getting older. And older, people tend to live with fewer people. If life expectancy rises, this component of the trend would only intensify. Yes, the whole Brian Johnson thing, he is the health influencer that says we now have alive, the first generation that's going to live forever due to advances in longevity in technology. I mean, my gosh, if he is right, what would that do to housing demand? I mean, and it would also push up our average age even more. Gosh, yet, at the same time that all this demand keeps pushing up. America already has a well publicized overall housing shortage of several million housing units. You already know that story well, construction has picked up a little, but not enough to keep up with demand. In fact, American housing supply is still about 30% below pre pandemic levels. So suffice to say, let me give you a satisfying definitive answer here, when are selling boomers going to crash housing prices? It is highly unlikely that that can even happen at all. In fact, you see fewer stories about this than you used to. More people have come to realize that it is just not happening. And looking at us demographics over the next few cycles, a lot more people will need homes demand continuing to exceed supply. This is why home prices should just keep rising from here. In fact, I have been an active single family rental property investor here myself, single family is where perhaps the greatest shortage is and the greatest demand is at the same time I am owning something that people are definitely going to need more of. Remember, demography is destiny, and they're going to pay more and more for it. When mortgage rates fall, it's probably going to bring in even more buying activity, and now all of this continued upward, long term, future price momentum for housing, of course, that all existed before Donald John Trump step into the White House to start his second term last month. I think the Trump factor, or Trump bump, you know what often gets somewhat exaggerated for what it can do to the economy and housing prices, right? I mean, I've talked to you before, it's about the decisions that you make more so than decisions that a politician makes, but Trump is doing some things on a pretty seismic level these nascent immigrant deportations, that obviously can increase the cost of labor you're exporting away your low cost labor with immigrant deportations. I mean, that is inflation tariffs, though some tariffs have been negotiated away for the time being, that's more inflation. So deportations mean wage increases. That's more inflation. Increased wages mean increased rents. Trump talks lower taxes. Lower taxes can then mean higher rent payments. Proposals to eliminate. Made taxes on tips over time and Social Security, that means that Americans and retirees are gonna have more disposable income. More income means higher rent collections, fewer delinquencies, and potentially rising home prices as affordability improves. That's a lot of the good news. It's not all rosy news. You better look out for high tax states salt adjustments that state and local income tax and a deduction cap could harm their property values. We're talking about places like California, New York and New Jersey, the 2017 Trump tax cuts and Jobs Act that gave real estate investors some really juicy benefits, like 20% pass through deduction for LLCs and bonus depreciation on rental properties and lower corporate tax rates too. Combined this stuff, it all keeps more money in your pocket and allows for bigger deals with better cash flow.    We're talking about Trump bump factors on the real estate market here, other proposals on the table, other things like tax breaks for domestic production that could boost us construction, leading to more badly needed housing supply that could lower building costs and investment opportunities in niche in growth markets. Remember opportunity zones, and then what about targeting wealthy investors? We'll see what happens, but Trump's plan removes tax breaks for hedge funds and billionaire sports owners. But could real estate investors get hurt a little on that side too? Maybe look for changes to the 1031 or depreciation strategies. But you know, the 1031 exchange has been around for over 100 years. I would be surprised if it went away completely, and yes, though they have been postponed, if 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada do go into place and the countries retaliate, as they've been shown to do, it would add point seven 6% to US inflation and subtract 410 of a percent from US GDP growth. Aren't those two projections Interesting? Yeah, those estimates were compiled by the Yale budget lab. So adding about three quarters of a percentage point to the overall inflation rate with these tariffs. I mean everything we're talking about the price of your housing or your car tires or your tomatoes and romaine lettuce. I mean, that effect could take money out of people's pockets. Yes, we know that Trump wants to bring down interest rates, but I don't know how he's going to do that. I mean, as you know, more inflation correlates with higher rates, not lower ones. See, you just can't get it all. You just can't have it all. And of course, mortgage rates are not historically high. They've simply been normalized after years of being artificially low. Rates are normal. So normalized is really a term that I like to use. So really, to help summarize what I've shared with you here in the first half of the show, a housing price crash induced by a boomer sell off is not a thing. In fact, almost Oppositely, demographics in this pent up demand should raise up future home prices, and to a lesser extent, a Trump bump can as well. Yes, gosh, Trump just has an insatiable fascination for tariffs. It is truly amazing, and it has more stick to itiveness than say, Mark Zuckerberg, recent fascination with masculine energy and gold chains, that's for sure.   Hey, before we get into the pernicious vice that's destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this, it's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides. First, I've got some cool things to tell you. About two weeks ago here on the show event, host Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I invited you to join us on the terrific Investor Summit at sea, that cruise on the Caribbean. Besides the two of us, there are a number of other great faculty members. Robert Kiyosaki recently announced that he's going to be joining us on the faculty as well. So you'll get to meet and learn from Robert Kiyosaki, and if you happen to be a new listener, he is the top selling personal finance author of all time the. Rich Dad, Poor Dad, author, and he's been our guest here on the GRE podcast four times. Now, I hope to meet you, the listener, in person on the summit at sea in the Caribbean this June, starting out of Miami. Gosh, what an outstanding time that is. It's not a low cost event, however, the minimum cabin in interior cabin is $5,900 and they are more expensive from there if you get nicer accommodations. But all the details are there on GRE podcast episode 539 two weeks ago. I really hope you'll join us and then I can meet you in person.   Earlier this month, Trump established a US sovereign wealth fund, and when he did, I congratulated our frequent contributor here, macro economist Richard Duncan, because Richard championed the establishment of that fund for years. He presented to Congress about it, and Richard was the first ever GRE guest with us back here in 2014 on the Panama coffee farm investing that we've discussed here on the show, Villanova University reached out to them, and they're now collaborating together. It's something I find kind of cool, as a Pennsylvania native and one of my tightest best friends is also a Villanova alum, as for future episodes coming up on the show. Here, imagine if you had a property loan, yet you didn't have to make any payments, and if you did make payments on your loan, then every penny of that payment goes to principal, not to interest. Wouldn't that be incredible? Well, such a thing does exist, and it's not new or experimental or avant garde. People just don't know about this vehicle. We're going to discuss that right here on next week's show, along with some other vital mortgage topics. There are three ways to connect with our education at GRE you're listening to one of them right now, our flagship podcast. Also check out our get rich education YouTube channel, because that is different content than this show. That's the second way, and that show is also on other video first, platforms like get rich education on rumble, and finally, you'll have it all, all three when you get our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter if you don't already get it free now, while it's on your mind, simply text GRE 266, 86, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com    Oh geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.   Robert Kiyosaki  29:31   this is our rich dad Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  29:50   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, every once in a while, there's an investing adjacent activity that becomes. Is pronounced or become such a trend that it just can't be ignored, and you need to know about it. I recently presented on how gambling is financially derailing so many people today, especially young men and sports gambling and what makes California and Texas special here, the two most populous states, by the way, you'll see, once they legalize this, it's gonna get worse. There are two states where it's not legal yet now investing in gambling. They are two distinctly different activities. Investing is different from gambling. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything of value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event gambling. It's really not a side hustle. I mean, people are constantly losing their families and businesses over this. This will be all new material here on the show as usual, except for a short snippet that includes super CPA Tom Wheelwright. This is about 10 minutes in length. Shout out to the media team here at GRE on the production side. And then after this, I have more to tell you about real estate.    Speaker 1  31:30   America is in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling.   Keith Weinhold  31:37   This is the worst thing that people are now doing with their time and money today, it's not losing it to inflation, it's not playing video games. It's being a slack jawed gambling degenerate. We are in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling, and the devastation on gamblers, especially young men is a lot worse than you think. I've also got a giant ominous warning for you that seasoned gamblers don't even know about when I bring in my CPA for just a minute here today on the seriously punishing tax implications that should scare anybody out of gambling.    Hi, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling, author, and long time real estate investor. Almost 60% of 18 to 24 year olds have placed at least one sports bet now that's per the NCAA, and that has surged so fast. I mean, just less than a decade ago, major pro sports leagues shunned gambling, disassociating with it because it was illegal in most places. The big turning point was 2018 that's when the Supreme Court ended a decades long ban on commercialized sports betting. 38 states and DC have now legalized it most with minimum age requirements set at 21 and the two biggest platforms are DraftKings and fam duel. They've got about 70% of the market. But look, you can do this if you're under 21 on platforms like prize picks and flip they offer betting like experiences. They operate under fantasy sports or sweepstakes, and having these apps on your phone that just brings the gambling right to you. It keeps it in your face and addictive. Now it's like you're sitting in a casino when you're on your living room so far, or in your bed or even in the bathroom, there is no escape. Two thirds of Americans live in a state where they can access it on their phones. And look how young some of these gamblers are, what they have to say. And then who's showing up in these gamblers Anonymous meetings   Speaker 1  33:56   today's world is the 16, 1718, year olds, 1921, year olds that get addicted years ago, before, unlike casinos, if we had a person coming in and they're 24 years old, it was rare. All right, now the norm, the real norm, it's kids coming in at 17 years old. That's the norm.    Keith Weinhold  34:16   Well, one big reason why it's such a problem is, look, you can't hide it, so that therefore others can't tell if you're gambling, because you're not, you know, shooting it into your veins, or you're not acting drunk, or you're not smoking anything. See, you can gamble without exhibiting a physical change, so therefore others don't know that you need help. And it is all over the place. I mean, gambling ads air on TV over 60,000 times a year. Celebrities endorse gambling. I mean, some teams put gambling ads right on the field. Brick and mortar sports books are even built inside some stadiums now, Caesars and bet MGM. There are two other big platforms that you might see out there, but I mean, in their commercials, yeah, they can put that one 800 gambler help number on screen and tell you things like, gamble within your limits. But look, here's the thing these platforms, they're not going to cut you off if you continue to lose and they profit. In fact, if you win disproportionately big time after time, and these platforms can kind of tell that you're too smart. You know what they do, like a casino that identifies a card shark in Vegas, they're either gonna curtail your activity or just totally cut you off, alright? So then, by definition, if you have an account in good standing at FanDuel or DraftKings, and you bet a lot, and they keep letting you play well, then you have just signaled to the entire world that you don't know what you're doing, and you are going to lose big, or you already have. I mean, that is baked into the cake. That's how the system works. So therefore these companies are basically mining America to find anyone stupid enough to keep placing these sports bets. Companies are profiting from this, and then states are too. I mean, they've collected billions in tax revenue and FanDuel and DraftKings, see, they're publicly traded companies, so this means that they have shareholders, and those shareholders, they want to see profit and growth. I recently asked decorated CPA and mega popular tax author Tom Wheelwright about tax rates on gambling for just a quick three minutes here. I mean, you won't believe how punishing This is.    Can you tell us about sports gambling taxes and how it's treated   Tom Wheelwright  36:43   yeah. So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you know, you'd get a 1099 right? Or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you've got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. In other words, you don't you never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. So that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're gonna be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're gonna be taxed on 10,000 Yeah,   Keith Weinhold  37:39   so you the gambler have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?   Tom Wheelwright  37:47   Oh, I would keep a detailed ledger. Personally, I'd probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, that's the way I would do it. I'm not a gambler either. So by the way, it's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account, put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money, put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.   Keith Weinhold  38:18   Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting.   Tom Wheelwright  38:25   Well, interesting. You went there.   Keith Weinhold  38:29   I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like? They're ordinary   Tom Wheelwright  38:35   income tax rates. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income they're they're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special, okay?   Keith Weinhold  38:47   And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes.    Tom Wheelwright  38:53   Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.   Keith Weinhold  39:09   Gosh, to me, it seems like it's, it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term, you know, I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.   Tom Wheelwright  39:30   No, but they will send you your 1090, 9g I guarantee that.   Keith Weinhold  39:34    So can you imagine tracking all that and then paying all that in tax, and this is even if you're on the winning side and then keeping a separate bank account as well. And note that Tom and I were talking federal. There. It gets even worse. Some state laws are punishing, like New York, which has a 51% tax rate on mobile sports wagering bank. Up 28% since states have legalized this and credit scores have dropped now, California and Texas are the two big states, and they still haven't legalized sports gambling. They're the two big ones, and when they do, that's when you'll see more bankruptcy and more people, especially young men in financial ruin. I mean gamblers, Anonymous meetings are filled with people hooked on betting and on stock options trading too, and you know, Worse still, among addiction disorders, gambling has a comparatively high suicide attempt rate. And you know, understand that, while both involve risk, investing in gambling are two different things. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything with value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event. Now, I gambled as a teen on sports, and back then, it was just a friend and I, we would each lay a $20 bill on top of the television at the start of like a Mets versus Phillies baseball game, and then it sure made the game more interesting to watch. There wasn't any sort of app to make it easy, suck me in and make it a recurrent practice. I haven't gambled since. Now that you're aware of the gravity of the problem, the best thing you can do for yourself is to delete those apps off your phone. Because look, I mean every gambler that had their lies flipped over and turned catastrophic at one time, they told themselves, you know, I'm doing this, but it's under control. I mean, everybody once said that the best thing you can do is delete FanDuel DraftKings and any other apps like that off of your phone right now and vow to never do it again. I hope you like that. You know, it's sort of interesting and introspective to me that I would produce a piece of media like this because I am a sports fan. I watched more of the NFL this past season than I have in a while. You know, I'm in a phase of my life, or I'm a pretty productive person, doing research and interviewing guests and producing GRE media. But you know, I justified watching more sports lately because there's room for an entertainment bucket in everyone's life. That's how I feel. And you know, I don't really watch movies. Most movies I watch feel like a waste of my time when I'm done after two hours, because I'm usually disappointed in it. If I ever watch movies, I gotta watch movies on the plane, because even if it was lousy, I got somewhere in the process. So in any case, now, if gambling is controlled, well, then it might be debatable about whether or not it's a vice, like, say you go to Vegas and have your $250 spending limit or whatever.    But just remember, every gambling degenerate once told themselves and everybody that they know that they've got it under control, but yeah, often they didn't around here, we champion owning real estate directly yourself, that is something that is in your control. So we're not talking about REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts. That's just a publicly owned company and a group of them. It's not real estate tokenization. That means owning digital fractional shares of a property or a real estate investment. I mean direct whole ownership also means it's not a syndication now that might be worth doing, though, that means that you're pooling other investors money. It's not direct whole investing. If you are investing in someone else's syndication, meaning that you're a limited partner and direct real estate investing, it means not being a flipper or a wholesaler. Again, those things might be worth doing, but they're really time consuming, and they're not tax advantaged either. But when you own rental real estate directly yourself, you don't even need to be a landlord. If you choose not to you, then will not be that point of contact for your tenants when others manage it. And yes, because of the five ways that you're paid, you can make the case that real estate has hegemony over other assets, and for the demographic reasons and the inflationary reasons, like the ones that I told you about earlier today, real estate appears poised to continue as the. Hegemon. In fact, recently, so many global hedge funds have dumped every stock that they have, except for the real estate stocks. I shared that article with you in our newsletter recently. That's largely a tariff response. Let me tell you about real properties on GRE marketplace right now that are ripe for owning directly. I mean direct ownership. That's also the easiest to understand. You are paid rent by a tenant that lives there, often through your property manager, and unlike the out of control sports gambler, this is very much in your control. A brand new build single family rental in Columbiana, Alabama, that's just south of Birmingham. Rent is $1,925 the price is $269,900 over 1600 square feet, four, bed, two bath. Now with the new build, expect low maintenance costs. Is currently vacant, get an interest rate of six and three quarters percent with a 25% down payment on this new build, single family rental in Alabama. Then another sample here. This is interesting. The rent on this old build Davenport Iowa duplex is $1,900 which is about the same rent as the Alabama single family rental I just described. But yet the price for this Davenport duplex is just $183,000 Davenport is part of America's Quad Cities with a combined population of about half a million with both duplex sides. It's a combined square footage of almost 2700 square feet, five, bed, two, bath. They're on Brown Street in Davenport, and now, as favorable as those $1,900 combined duplex rents are, since this property is vintage, in fact, it's over 100 years old, you better check closely on the renovations that were made to the property and have plenty set aside for any maintenance and repairs as well, with a 25% down payment, expect an interest rate of just six and one quarter percent. And there are more financing details there. And of course, rates are always changing. The last one I'll mention is this new build, another duplex, this one in Inverness, Florida. This is really interesting too. And now, what do you think when you think of Florida, real estate? Does climate change come to mind? For some people, it does. For some it doesn't, maybe even rising sea levels over the long term. Well, Inverness, Florida is 15 to 20 miles inland, and it's 50 feet above sea level. How about high insurance rates? Does that come to mind with Florida? Well, they're not so high on new build properties, since they're built to today's stringent hurricane standards. Is Florida temporarily over built, even though the nation, in aggregate is under built? Yes, some Florida markets are overbuilt, and that's how you could potentially snag a deal and get this with 25% down, you can get an interest rate as low as four and three quarter percent, yes, and that's showing with zero buyer paid discount points, the combined rent from both sides of this new build Inverness duplex is estimated at $2,830 of course, often you need to estimate a rent range or make an estimate on the projected rent for new builds, because often they're not occupied yet, since they were just built, sales price of just a touch under 420k on the Inverness duplex, and as just one of the five ways you're paid the cash on cash return is projected at 5% yes, your return goes up into the positive cash flow zone when your mortgage rate is as low as four and three quarters percent. I mean, that is really attractive. It also comes with a year of free property management. So there you go, a new build single family rental in Alabama, an old duplex in Davenport, Iowa, and a new build duplex with just killer incentives in Inverness, Florida, and that's just the sampling of real estate pays five ways type of properties. We either help you get started or continue on your path to financial freedom and help you do that. With our completely free investment coaching, we work with you to help you with these properties or others like them or none at all, if it's not in your best interest to invest now at GRE marketplace.com All you need to do to get started from GRE marketplace.com is click on the coaching area and you can get on the calendar for a free strategy session until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  50:35   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively, Chris,   Keith Weinhold  51:03   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it is expected that the US will announce reciprocal tariffs today, although the phase-in time might be months. To be revealed. This will be seen as the formal start of a global trade war. New Zealand won't be any focus but it won't be immune. The tariffs will be on goods. But the retaliatory tariffs will likely come on services where the US runs large surpluses. Both will tend to drive countries away from US influence.Every country is going to learn how to play hard-ball in a zero-sum struggle. None of this will be good for trade, or any sense of cooperation for mutual benefit.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims came in at 231,000 last week, almost exactly as expected. There are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits, quite similar to this time last year.The expected easing in the rise in American producer prices didn't happen in January. They were up +3.5% in December and that was expected to ease to a +3.2% January rise. But in the end the pace of cost increases stayed unchanged at +3.5%. Although it is not a key metric, it is more data that will encourage the Fed to hold its settings and put off a rate cut. Tariffs are likely to make matters worse for them.US household debt pushed on up through US$18 tln at the end of Q4-2024 in new data released today. That is 62% of US GDP, so compared with other countries, not a huge load. In fact it rose only +3.1% from a year ago, basically keeping pace with inflation.There was a UST 30 year bond auction earlier today and that brought a median yield of 4.68%. That compared with the 4.87% at the equivalent eventa month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese producer priceswere expected to rise in January from December's 3.9% to 4.0%. In fact it came in at 4.2% for the year to January in a broad-based trend higher. And apart from the pandemic period, this is a ten year high for them.It may seem an odd economic 'win' but EU industrial production fell -2.0% in December. This was marginally more than the November -1.8% drop, but very much less than the -3.1% fall expected. It was toughest in Austria, Italy and Hungary, all countries ruled by right-wing populists. So far they are not making their countries great again.Container freight rates fell -5% last week to be +118% higher than pre-pandemic but -19% lower than the same time a year ago. Outbound freight rates from China brought the largest retreats. Bulk cargo rates remained near all-time low levels, but were unchanged over this past week.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, back down -9 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2913/oz and up +US$18 from yesterday.Oil prices are down nearly -US$1.50 at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.7, essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,526 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In episode 53, we dive into the latest earnings reports from tech giants like Meta and Microsoft, analyze Comcast's performance amidst industry shifts, and explore the luxury sector's outlook with a focus on China's recovery. Meta is leveraging its massive user base to monetize AI investments, with tools like Advantage+ showing strong growth (70% YoY growth). Microsoft continues to expand, driven by LinkedIn and a booming AI business (175% YoY increase). Comcast faces challenges in broadband but sees potential in mobile and a steady media division. LVMH's performance and advertising spend provide insights into the luxury sector's trajectory. We also discuss the impact of interest rate decisions by the ECB and the Fed, analyzing their potential effects on economic growth and the advertising landscape. Plus, we'll touch on the US GDP's 2.3% annual growth in Q4 2024, driven by a 4.2% increase in consumer spending, and the overall economic outlook for 2025. NEXT WEEK: We'll break down earnings from Spotify, Alphabet, and others, plus share our weekend plans. -- Discover GroupM's latest This Year Next Year Forecast here: https://www.groupm.com/this-year-next-year-2024-global-end-of-year-forecast/ If you are GroupM client or part of WPP, reach out to business.intelligence@GroupM.com for the full report.

Today on Moment of Zen, we're bringing you the third episode of "This Won't Last", the newest show from Turpentine. Keith Rabois, Logan Bartlett, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg dissect the 2025 political landscape in a spirited discussion of Trump's evolved messaging and surprising tech industry backing. The conversation weaves through immigration policy, corporate political neutrality, and market dynamics - from Silicon Valley's rightward shift to urban crime challenges and insurance markets and explores how America's tech-policy nexus is reshaping in real-time. —

 As Joe Biden prepares to leave office on Jan. 20, what area the legacies he leaves behind. Today's show reviews those legacies—economic and political, domestic and global. For the US economy, a review of the inflation legacy, Covid relief program and results, the Biden jobs record, subsidies to corporate investment, actual US GDP, budget and trade deficits, and national debt. In domestic politics his contributions to the decline of democracy, identity politics, immigration and the failed election of 2024. In foreign policy: the debacle retreat from Afghanistan, his preparation and provocation of the US proxy war in Ukraine, Russia and China tariffs and sanction, support for Israeli genocide in GAZA, and policies that accelerated the rise of the BRICS and their challenge to the US global economic hegemony.

Heads-up: We're still on vacation until Monday (1/6/25); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policy of the Fed, and short-term investing in bond yields; is Jerome Powell making a mistake? The world is in a recession; why should we care? Because of the globalization of trade. Lance examines the correlations of US GDP to other countries'. Is the US GDP growth normal, or will the US have to catch-down to other economies? We are still experiencing the residual effects of government spending in our economy. SEG-1 Fed Cuts Rates, Adds Hawkish Tone SEG-2: Did the Fed Steal Christmas? SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Balancing Act: Is He Making a Mistake now? SEG-4: Will the US Catch-down to the Rest of the World? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/ "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #HolidaySpending2024 #ChristmasEconomy #InterestRatesImpact #EconomicOutlook#RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The Global South-led organization BRICS continues to expand, adding 9 partner countries in January 2025, after admitting 4 new members in 2024. The group now makes up roughly half of the global population and more than 41% of world GDP (PPP). It's an economic powerhouse, with top producers of key commodities like oil, gas, grains, meat, minerals, and more. Ben Norton analyzes the growing influence of BRICS+. VIDEO with charts and maps here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_shuhJvvBY BRICS MEMBERSHIP (9 members + 9 partner countries) - 5 original members are Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. - 4 new members officially admitted in January 2024 are Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE. (Saudi Arabia has neither accepted nor denied the invitation. Argentina rejected the offer.) - 9 confirmed partner countries are Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan. - 4 invited partner countries have not yet given a response: Algeria, Nigeria, Turkey/Türkiye, Vietnam. Check out our related video on BRICS' plan to transform the global financial system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pHr5yzLEHA BRICS plans ‘multi-currency system' to challenge US dollar dominance: Understanding Russia's proposal - https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/10/19/brics-russia-multi-currency-system-us-dollar/ Topics 0:00 History of BRICS expansion 0:45 9 new partner countries 1:38 Map of BRICS membership 3:45 BRICS is an economic powerhouse 5:00 What does partner status mean? 5:39 De-dollarization of international financial system 7:06 1/2 of global population 8:35 BRICS economies are bigger than G7 9:24 41% of world GDP (PPP) 10:20 US GDP is overstated 12:49 Food production 17:32 Oil & gas production 18:32 Renewable energy 19:21 Mineral production 20:43 Building a global alternative 22:07 Outro

Markets struggled to recover from hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with equities ending the day lower despite a stronger-than-expected US GDP reading. Investors now turn their attention to European producer prices and the Fed's preferred inflation metric due out today, amid concerns over a potential US government shutdown. And we have Maeve Timoney on the show to talk about the topic of water and potential solutions to tackle water-related challenges.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:42 Water – too little and too much by Maeve Timoney (Next Generation Research)10:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policy of the Fed, and short-term investing in bond yields; is Jerome Powell making a mistake? The world is in a recession; why should we care? Because of the globalization of trade. Lance examines the correlations of US GDP to other countries'. Is the US GDP growth normal, or will the US have to catch-down to other economies? We are still experiencing the residual effects of government spending in our economy. SEG-1 Fed Cuts Rates, Adds Hawkish Tone SEG-2: Did the Fed Steal Christmas? SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Balancing Act: Is He Making a Mistake now? SEG-4: Will the US Catch-down to the Rest of the World? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/ "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #HolidaySpending2024 #ChristmasEconomy #InterestRatesImpact #EconomicOutlook#RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policy of the Fed, and short-term investing in bond yields; is Jerome Powell making a mistake? The world is in a recession; why should we care? Because of the globalization of trade. Lance examines the correlations of US GDP to other countries'. Is the US GDP growth normal, or will the US have to catch-down to other economies? We are still experiencing the residual effects of government spending in our economy. SEG-1 Fed Cuts Rates, Adds Hawkish Tone SEG-2: Did the Fed Steal Christmas? SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Balancing Act: Is He Making a Mistake now? SEG-4: Will the US Catch-down to the Rest of the World? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/ "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #HolidaySpending2024 #ChristmasEconomy #InterestRatesImpact #EconomicOutlook#RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.

Explore the latest trends in the gold and silver markets, including key factors driving prices, global demand, and investment forecasts. Discover why hedge funds are selling off gold, how India and European central banks are impacting demand, and projections for silver's future in industrial applications.

It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in certain market areas where “Trump Trade” exuberance has likely exceeded the grasp of underlying fundamental realities. While investors were a bit skittish heading into the election, the clean Republican sweep of the Presidency, House, and Senate has sent investors scrambling to add exposure across all market assets. While the “Trump Trade” certainly has some legs, lower taxes, deregulation, and tariffs will not solve many companies' ” sales “ problems. But that is the beauty of speculation: rising prices increase speculation, which leads to higher prices. Lance shares his weekend excurion to The Warehouse at Texas A&M; valuations as short-term tools vs long term fundamentals. Post-election optimism at an all time high; the set up for markets now is very different from 2016. Could BitCoin hit $100,000? Why we don't have it in our 60/40 portfolio: Too volatile. Understanding risk psychology; why we've got about five years remaining to make real money in the markets. SEG-1: Great Expectations for US GDP Growth SEG-2a: An Aggie Christmas SEG-2b: Valuations & Risks in Cutting Government Spending SEG-3: Understanding Bitcoin & Risk Psychology SEG-4: Short-term vs Long-term Market Perspectives Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Assets Keeping You Awake? Sell 'em!" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q86SaUTa5s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Math Behind the MACD" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqVRDTY2m5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrumpTrade #InvestorSentiment #MarketImpact #EconomicPolicy #StockMarketNews#StockMarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #OperationTwist #JeromePowell #NFIBconfidenceIndex #TrumpWins #ElectionResults2024 #MarketReaction #InvestmentStrategy #PolicyImpact #ElectionDay2024 #MarketVolatility #ElectionInvesting #PortfolioProtection #FinancialTrends #InvestmentStrategy #ElectionImpact #InterestRates #TexasAM #TheWarehouse #ChristmasDecorations #AggieSanta #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in certain market areas where “Trump Trade” exuberance has likely exceeded the grasp of underlying fundamental realities. While investors were a bit skittish heading into the election, the clean Republican sweep of the Presidency, House, and Senate has sent investors scrambling to add exposure across all market assets. While the “Trump Trade” certainly has some legs, lower taxes, deregulation, and tariffs will not solve many companies' ” sales “ problems. But that is the beauty of speculation: rising prices increase speculation, which leads to higher prices. Lance shares his weekend excurion to The Warehouse at Texas A&M; valuations as short-term tools vs long term fundamentals. Post-election optimism at an all time high; the set up for markets now is very different from 2016. Could BitCoin hit $100,000? Why we don't have it in our 60/40 portfolio: Too volatile. Understanding risk psychology; why we've got about five years remaining to make real money in the markets.  SEG-1: Great Expectations for US GDP Growth SEG-2a: An Aggie Christmas SEG-2b: Valuations & Risks in Cutting Government Spending SEG-3: Understanding Bitcoin & Risk Psychology SEG-4: Short-term vs Long-term Market Perspectives  Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Assets Keeping You Awake? Sell 'em!" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q86SaUTa5s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Math Behind the MACD" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqVRDTY2m5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrumpTrade #InvestorSentiment #MarketImpact #EconomicPolicy #StockMarketNews#StockMarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #OperationTwist #JeromePowell #NFIBconfidenceIndex #TrumpWins #ElectionResults2024 #MarketReaction #InvestmentStrategy #PolicyImpact #ElectionDay2024 #MarketVolatility #ElectionInvesting #PortfolioProtection #FinancialTrends #InvestmentStrategy #ElectionImpact #InterestRates #TexasAM #TheWarehouse #ChristmasDecorations #AggieSanta #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Send us a textIn this episode of The Digital Executive, host Brian Thomas chats with Chase Russell, Senior Vice President of Product Strategy and Marketing at Bonterra, a social good tech company empowering nonprofits and philanthropists. Chase shares Bonterra's mission of increasing charitable giving to 3% of US GDP by 2033 through innovative software solutions that connect donors, volunteers, and funders with nonprofits driving impact.Chase explores the biggest challenges nonprofits face, from engaging donors to demonstrating real-world impact, and how Bonterra's AI-driven tools help solve these problems. From predicting optimal donation amounts to creating volunteer networks and detecting corporate matching opportunities, Bonterra's solutions foster a connected ecosystem that builds trust and maximizes generosity.Chase emphasizes the need for collaboration and advanced technology to ignite transformational change in the social good sector. Tune in to discover how Bonterra is unlocking the full potential of the nonprofit ecosystem to make a lasting impact on the world.

Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes. Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago. Thank you Ryan for putting this together. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together! This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal. Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals. April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic. May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have. May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns. May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice. May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting. May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise. May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed. August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame? September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze. October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons.   We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap". April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is. May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop. June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work? August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3. August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting". September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam. Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself. June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned. September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense. September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use. December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Our head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets provides an overview of uncertainty around policy following the election of a Republican administration.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the US election - the implications in the past, present and future. It's Friday, November 8th at 2pm in London. The US Election is over, and the result was relatively clear. Republicans won control of the Presidency, the Senate, and on current projections, are likely to narrowly take the House of Representatives. The so-called ‘sweep' will provide significant leeway to enact policy. There is going to be lots of time over future weeks and months, and even years, to discuss what all of this is going to mean. But for now, I want to offer a few thoughts on the impact across the past, the present and the future. Looking back, the US election has been a very well-known uncertainty that has hung over this market all year. The polling was close between two candidates with very different policy priorities. To the extent the simply not knowing was holding some investors back, or that investors were worried about a contested outcome, or even worse, political unrest – that issue has now passed. The relief from that passing may help explain some of the recent positive market reaction. For the present, we now sit in this curious middle-place where the uncertainty of the result is behind us, but any uncertainty from policy changes have not yet arrived. Coupled with still strong US economic data, another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve yesterday, and the tendency of markets to perform well in November and December, and the path of least resistance in the near term may be for markets to continue to trade well.The future, however, may have just become less certain. Credit likes moderation and stability, and we think the current economic mix, with US GDP growth and inflation at both around 2.5 per cent, while the unemployment rate sits near historic lows at 4.2 per cent, has been a good one for credit. It's been a major driver of our optimistic spread forecasts this year. Yet based on exit polls, US voters were not happy with this economy, and voted for change. The question, which will now dominate investor conversations, is how much of what the new administration has said they will do, will end up happening – on everything from tariffs, to taxes, to immigration. I can assure you that there's a very wide investor expectations around this. The ambiguity isn't necessarily a problem now, but we expect these questions to harden as we get into early next year. And given the likely sweep, the odds for larger changes in policy, especially much looser fiscal policy, have risen significantly. Whatever your average expectation for the US economy over the next 24 months now is, we think the bands around that have widened, and that's also true globally, from Latin America, to Europe, to Asia. To be a little more specific about these wider bands: To the downside, there are now scenarios where tariffs and deportations push up inflation and weaken growth. And to the upside, there are scenarios where potentially lower taxes and looser regulation could drive higher stock markets and more corporate animal spirits. But for credit, both of these present challenges: tight spreads are absolutely not priced for stagflation, while animal spirits and more corporate aggression aren't necessarily a great story if you're a lender. A more benign, middle scenario is, of course, still possible, and we're keeping an open mind. But the future has now become more uncertain. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Business potential refers to the likelihood that a company will successfully achieve its goals. This assessment takes into account various factors, including the size of the market, the company's competitive advantages, the experience of the management team, and the overall financial stability of the business.   According to Statista, narrowing the productivity gap, which currently amounts to 5.4 percent of the US GDP, is particularly crucial in today's shifting global production landscape.   David C. Olcott, the president of Samurai Success, Inc., is an experienced executive coach, NLP Master, martial artist, and best-selling author. He is widely recognized for his work in helping individuals and businesses achieve success and fulfill their potential. With 35 years of coaching experience, David has developed the trademark Samurai Success coaching system, a proven roadmap for success. He has coached clients across the globe, assisting them in navigating their journeys while integrating both Newtonian and metaphysical principles. This approach helps clients remember their true selves, enabling them to become more purposeful and their businesses to become more profitable.   David is committed to serving others, guiding them in creating successful lives, fulfilling their destinies, and leaving a lasting legacy. He is also the author of the Amazon best-selling book “Swords of Illumination,” which focuses on reclaiming a sense of destiny. The book addresses the disconnect between one's perceived identity and their actual experience in the world, emphasizing how to regain control of one's destiny and live the life one was meant to lead.   For more information, visit: https://samuraisuccess.com/  Instagram: @samurai_success  LinkedIn: @Samurai

Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election in a landslide. Why did Kamala Harris lose so badly? Ben Norton explains the failure of the billionaire-funded Democratic Party to provide an economic alternative to the billionaire-funded Republicans' pseudo "populism", as working-class people suffer. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSBi0m5xCJs Topics 0:00 Donald Trump wins 2024 presidential election 1:07 Who really is Kamala Harris? Does anyone know? 4:42 DNC strategy: sacrifice workers for moderate Republicans in suburbs 5:48 Harris campaigns with neoconservative Cheney family 6:56 Harris had no democratic mandate 7:42 Out-trumping Trump on immigration? Really? 8:04 Hillary Clinton 2.0 10:05 Low Democrat turnout 11:12 The status quo loses 12:34 Dems' extreme pro-Israel stance lost swing state voters 16:01 Rashida Tlaib & Ilhan Omar won; Harris lost 17:37 "Never Trump Republicans" barely exist 18:30 It's the economy, stupid 20:09 US GDP growth is not benefiting workers 21:39 Wealth inequality 22:32 Poverty & hunger increased under Biden-Harris 23:33 Trump scapegoats 24:09 (CLIP) Trump vows: "We are going to take other countries' jobs" 24:58 Trump's false promises 25:27 Deindustrialization 26:22 Immigration 28:40 Trump's tax cuts help rich elites, hurt workers 31:12 Billionaires Elon Musk & Stephen Schwarzman funded Trump 32:11 Inflation, debt, deficits 35:11 Tariffs 35:40 Conclusion

The latest economic indicators highlight a steady U.S. GDP growth rate of 2.8% for the third quarter of 2024. This growth is supported by a notable increase in consumer spending, which rose at a 3.7% annualized rate. However, the job market shows signs of stagnation, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October, raising concerns about underlying weaknesses. Despite the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%, the episode emphasizes the challenges faced by small businesses in filling job vacancies, particularly in sectors like construction and transportation.Host Dave Sobel also delves into the tech employment landscape, noting that while the tech unemployment rate held steady at 2.6%, the sector experienced a slight decline in jobs. The report from CompTIA indicates a positive trend in job listings for tech positions, but the overall employment numbers reflect a tightening labor market. The episode highlights the struggles small businesses face in hiring qualified candidates, with many owners reporting unfilled job openings and a decrease in hiring efforts.The episode shifts focus to Intel, which has reported a staggering $16.6 billion loss for the third quarter, marking the largest quarterly loss in its history. This loss is attributed to significant asset depreciation and restructuring charges following substantial layoffs. Sobel discusses the competitive landscape, particularly the challenges Intel faces from rivals like Nvidia and AMD in the AI chip market. In contrast, Reddit has reported its first profitable quarter as a public company, showcasing a significant turnaround and strong investor confidence.Finally, the episode covers the acquisition of CompTIA's certification business by HIG Capital and Thoma Bravo, transitioning it to a for-profit model. This move raises questions about the future of CompTIA's mission to serve the IT industry and the implications for its existing non-profit organization. Sobel encourages listeners to reevaluate their relationships with CompTIA in light of these changes, emphasizing the evolving landscape of certification and training in the tech industry. Three things to know today00:00 US GDP Growth Holds Steady at 2.8%, But Job Market Weakens Amid Small Business Hiring Struggles and Tech Stability05:15 Intel Reports Record $16.6 Billion Loss Amid Layoffs and Depreciation, While Reddit Achieves First Profitable Quarter07:10 H.I.G. Capital and Thoma Bravo to Acquire CompTIA's Certification Business, Transitioning to For-Profit Model  Supported by:  https://www.huntress.com/mspradio/https://mspradio.com/engage/      All our Sponsors: https://businessof.tech/sponsors/ Do you want the show on your podcast app or the written versions of the stories? Subscribe to the Business of Tech: https://www.businessof.tech/subscribe/Looking for a link from the stories? The entire script of the show, with links to articles, are posted in each story on https://www.businessof.tech/ Support the show on Patreon: https://patreon.com/mspradio/ Want to be a guest on Business of Tech: Daily 10-Minute IT Services Insights? Send Dave Sobel a message on PodMatch, here: https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/businessoftech Want our stuff? Cool Merch? Wear “Why Do We Care?” - Visit https://mspradio.myspreadshop.com Follow us on:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/28908079/YouTube: https://youtube.com/mspradio/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mspradionews/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mspradio/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@businessoftechBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/businessoftech.bsky.social

Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved?  Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Microsoft's quarterly revenue rose 16% on strong cloud computing demand, the UK's Labour party reveals bold tax increases and borrowing, and the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. Plus, critics cry foul over a proof of citizenship law in Arizona. Mentioned in this podcast:Microsoft's revenue beats estimates on strong cloud demand from AI boom Rachel Reeves announces £40bn tax increase in UK Budget Arizona's proof of citizenship complicates voting in US swing state US GDP rose at a 2.8% rate in third quarter on strong consumer spending Play the FT's Budget game: https://ig.ft.com/chancellor-game/ The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Katya Kumkova, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In today's episode, I interview Josh Dech. In our conversation, Josh discusses the critical role of gut health in overall well-being, emphasizing that gut health impacts not just digestion but various aspects of health, including fertility. He shares his journey from being a paramedic to a holistic health practitioner, highlighting the importance of understanding inflammation, dysbiosis, and the gut microbiome.    Josh challenges conventional medical perspectives on chronic diseases and discusses the significance of dietary choices, the role of probiotics, and the hidden threats posed by parasites. He advocates for a comprehensive approach to gut health, including the five Rs of gut health, and stresses the importance of working with health professionals for optimal results. Be sure to tune in!   Takeaways   Gut health impacts everything, not just digestion. Inflammation is a sign of the body wanting to heal. Dysbiosis is an imbalance in gut bacteria. Symptoms can indicate underlying issues. Diet plays a crucial role in gut health. Conventional medicine often overlooks root causes. All diseases have a root cause. Probiotics can be beneficial but vary in effectiveness. Parasites can significantly affect gut health. Working with a professional is essential for healing.   Guest Bio:   Josh is a Holistic Nutritionist specializing in Crohn's and Colitis, and other related gut issues. After reversing over 250 cases of bowel disease, previously thought to be impossible to fix, he's been connected to some of the world's most renowned doctors.   He's since been recruited to the Priority Health Academy as a medical lecturer, helping educate doctors on the holistic approach to gut health, and inflammatory bowel disease; and has launched a top 2.5% globally ranked podcast.   https://gutsolution.ca   https://www.instagram.com/joshdech.health/       For more information about Michelle, visit: www.michelleoravitz.com   Click here to get free access to the first chapter in The Way of Fertility Book! https://www.michelleoravitz.com/thewayoffertility   The Wholesome FertilityFacebook group is where you can find free resources and support: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2149554308396504/   Instagram: @thewholesomelotusfertility   Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thewholesomelotus/           Transcript:   Michelle (00:00) Welcome to the podcast, Josh.   Josh Dech - CHN (00:02) A pleasure to be here, Michelle. Thanks for having me on board.   Michelle (00:05) Yeah, I'm very excited to pick your brain. We just had a little pre -talk. I'm excited to really get into all the details of the gut nowadays we're starting to see just how impactful it is, but not just for digestion, which is like most of the time when you hear about gut, you think, okay, how's my digestion?   It's about everything. It's kind of like the center of everything. It impacts fertility.   But before we get into that, I'd love for you to share how you got into this work.   Josh Dech - CHN (00:36) I'd love to. Sure. You know, I think my entire career, I often like to describe it as a series of accidents just pushing me into one direction or another. And I used to be a paramedic and I loved it. You know, I love being in healthcare, but it wasn't very long until I realized it was actually sick care. It wasn't what I wanted to actually be doing. You know, I picked the same people up for the same things. Maybe 20 % of your calls were actually trauma, like car accidents and stuff like that. The other 80 plus percent was medical.   So we're talking people coming in for the same issues, heart issues, diabetic issues, strokes, very preventable things. Almost 99 % of them would be preventable through just simple lifestyle, nutrition and basic changes. And, you know, I ended up leaving that career after a short little stint and got into personal training in my early twenties. And that was more what I wanted to do. And I was a woman who came to see me at age 57, right at the beginning. And this is, this story is just, it'll knock your socks off because it really shows you what's possible.   So she's 57 years old. She came to see me. She was on 17 pills and a shot of insulin for breakfast. She had nine more pills and insulin for bedtime. So we're talking 26 pills a day, two shots of insulin. She had CPAP machine to sleep. She had high blood pressure. She was on disability at work as well on the list. So 27 floors up, but there was a fire. She had to stand there and wait for someone to come get her because she couldn't physically take the stairs. And that was the state of her health at 57. And so here we are two years later, she's 59 years old now.   Michelle (01:54) my God, wow.   Josh Dech - CHN (02:02) She's off all but two medications, no longer needs CPAP. She's no longer on disability, high blood pressure gone, it's totally normalized. Even her eyesight improved. She got her glasses prescription downgraded. And now he or she is 59 years old, Michelle, it gets even better. I told you, knock your socks off. We entered into her first weightlifting competition and she broke a world record in the raw power lifting federation in Canada at 59 from previously being on disability. And this is the power.   Michelle (02:14) Wow.   Yeah   Josh Dech - CHN (02:30) really truly the human body to go from 26 pills and insulin and disability to breaking world records right till she was in her mid 60s 62 63 when she retired from weightlifting but that's what the body can do it's consistently all the time it is working to heal you to improve you to rebuild you to build you stronger yet somehow we find ourselves continually going back the other way i'm getting it must be because i'm older it must be because you know i'm just getting sick it must be just genetic it must be this must be that   She was told all of her shit was genetic. None of it was. Her body was trying to heal her but it wasn't given the tools conditions and circumstances to do so until it was and then it did. And this is the power of we'll say holistic health is a super broad overarching spectrum but dealing with basics of nutrition and gut health and wellness at its root we can see that the body is so capable of healing itself and it's the most important thing you could ever do is give your body what it needs.   Michelle (03:01) Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (03:29) That's sort of how we got here.   Michelle (03:29) That is so powerful. Yeah, I that's so powerful because I, well, I think that the big thing that really gets in the way is kind of how we view our bodies or how we're taught to view our bodies. I want to say that we're conditioned to view our bodies because I think on an innate level, we do know that we can heal ourselves.   There's definitely like an innate knowing that you have and intelligence that you connect with with your body. But most people do not know based on how we're educated that their body can heal itself and that there is a choice outside of the 26 pills.   Josh Dech - CHN (04:02) Yes.   Yeah, right now you've been told there's nothing you can do right now you've been told your issues are genetic right now you've been told your only hope is medications to manage the symptoms there's nothing that can be done. But we need to understand as I learned throughout my career going back to school now specializing in gut diseases. Our guts really are at the epicenter of most of these things. And once you understand how it works, how it's connected, and how it's responsible for every aspect of your well being.   I argue sometimes that it well may be more important than our DNA. And once we can understand this concept, then we can start to look outside of what we think we already know, what we've been told. It unlocks a whole new, a whole new world for you. I'm singing a lot of it in my head now, a whole new world, but it opens all this stuff up for you. And then everything is possible. Everything you've been told becomes something of the past. Your whole paradigm begins to shift. And finally, you can look at yourself and go, wait a minute.   Michelle (04:37) You   Josh Dech - CHN (05:03) wait a minute, there, I don't have to be on these medications. I don't have to just deal with this. I don't have to just live with this because my body is trying to heal me. What is it trying to heal me from? And then you start unraveling. That's the thread that pulls apart the whole sweater.   Michelle (05:17) Yeah. And also inflammation is kind of at the heart of this because I know that it can impact so many things. know for fertility, it can impact your uterine lining. It can impact egg quality. it's very much linked with things like endometriosis. I mean, there's so many things and it just goes on and on and on. So let's talk about inflammation because that's really at the heart of all of this. Like when you address the gut health,   actually addressing inflammation. So talk about that. Talk about the Western approach to that and how you see inflammation occurring in the body.   Josh Dech - CHN (05:55) Yeah. Inflammation is always a reaction. Your body is healing you from something. And in the Westernized world, here's what I'll say. Imagine you're out going for a walk and you step on a nail and the nail goes right through your foot and you go into your doctor. The doctor looks at that nail and goes, wow, it is really swollen, really inflamed, but it's kind of just part of your body. Now there's nothing we can do about it. So what we're going to do is give you numbing cream for the pain. And if it gets infected, we can manage that as things get worse.   In worst case scenario, we'll just cut your foot off. That's absurd. may, you'd lose it. You slap the doctor, but here we are, we're going in and you got say a gut disease where I specialize like Crohn's, colitis and other gut disease. You go into your doctor, they go, wow, that inflammation is really bad. It's just genetic. It's part of your body. There's nothing we can do. We're going to manage it with quote numbing cream. So medication, anti -inflammatories. And when you get infected, we'll treat it as it comes up. And if worst case scenario, we'll just cut the organ out.   You should be slapping your doctor just like you would if it were your foot because it makes no sense. Inflammation, the very fundamentals of it is your body healing you from something. So let's apply this to Crohn's and colitis, right? Where I specialize is Crohn's, colitis and severe IBS. People are told it's genetic, it's autoimmune, there's nothing you can do. It is what it is. well, it will manage it or hopefully not cut out your bowels. Looking at this, it's not just genetic. It's not just autoimmune. It's not just unknown.   And I can break those down in about two minutes there, Michelle, really for you to basically, those are the three legs that Western medicine stands on to say you have to medicate it. I can break those with their own data and say it doesn't make any sense. But the idea being these inflammatory conditions we're told we're stuck with, yet we can reverse them 99 % of the time to full healing. Inflammation is your body healing you. We have to ask what is it healing you from?   So in the case of your intestines, they will, it's autoimmune and genetic, it's attacking your own body. Well, what if, what if your body is attacking something like your microbiome and your own tissues are caught in the crossfire, right? You get a nail in your foot, your body's not attacking your foot. That's not why you're inflamed. It's creating white blood cells or immune activity in response to attack the nail that's in your foot.   Michelle (07:50) Mm   Mmm.   Josh Dech - CHN (08:13) We don't question that. go, obviously it's infected. There's something that's wrong. When we get a condition like Crohn's or colitis or some other inflammatory condition, we go, it's attacking me. That doesn't make any sense at all.   Michelle (08:13) Mm   That's so interesting. So how do you see that specifically Crohn's is it the gut microbiome imbalance that's causing all of this? I think it's fascinating that you're saying this because I always talk about like symptoms being your friend. And it's actually just one of the intelligent aspects of your body to give you the alarm, to give you a heads up. Hey, pay attention.   Josh Dech - CHN (08:36) Yeah.   Mm   Michelle (08:52) So it is really fascinating to look at it that way rather than a nuisance.   Josh Dech - CHN (08:52) Yeah.   Yeah, I see it cascading down as a few different things. So number one, we all have dysbiosis now. Dysbiosis just means an imbalance in bacteria. But we know through the work of someone like Justin Sonnenberg that we can see what's called inherited dysbiosis. Our microbiomes are passed down from our mothers and her grandmother and her great, great grandmother before that. We get these dysbiotic states handed down and the more toxic our world gets them, the the dysbiosis becomes.   Michelle (09:06) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (09:26) So think of it this way, Michelle, great, great grandmother, we'll just round number just to visualize easier. Say they have a thousand microbes. Great grandmother gives birth to your great grandmother, who's given 800, who gives birth to your grandmother, who gets six, to your mother, who gets 400, to you, who gets 200 microbes. You now have inherited dysbiosis. Of course your gut's getting worse, which explains the rise of gut disease we've seen over the last...   50 to 75 years, we've seen these numbers compounding gut disease getting worse in the 1950s, Crohn's and colitis. There was about, I think it was maybe five or 10 in 100 ,000 people had this disease. To the 1970s, you're now 25 to 40 in 100 ,000 who have the disease. 1990s, you're about 150. And now today, it's 456. Almost 5 % of people now have bowel disease in North America.   And so what we're seeing now is this continual growth from like whatever it was, 0 .0005 % to 5 % growth in bowel disease is because great great grandmother had a thousand, now you've got 200. This is inherited dysbiosis. And there's a direct correlation to the amount of pesticides we use, to the chemicals we put on our food, to everything. And now what happens, this dysbiosis, this is the moat around the castle. This keeps the bad guys out.   Michelle (10:39) Mm -hmm. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (10:49) This is your defense mechanism. 90 % of your immune system is made there, or 70 to 90%, I should say, up to 90 % of your neurotransmitters, what your brain needs, all these leaks that happen in the gut when we're inflamed, it opens up the door for toxins to travel anywhere in the body through your lymphatic system or your bloodstream. And so we have our defenses lowered from 1 ,000 to 200, say. We don't have the same robustness to our body.   Michelle (10:54) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (11:16) which means other invaders, mode is empty, invaders can enter the castle. So now we've got three big issues that really are the roots of bowel disease. Number one is going to be microbial imbalances. So this is that dysbiosis we inherited, which lets in overgrowth of fungus, which should be in our gut, but in smaller levels it overgrows. We see overgrowth of E. coli, a big one I see. Michelle has parasites. I'm talking three, four foot worms coming out of people, which yeah, which.   Michelle (11:20) Hmm.   Mm God.   Josh Dech - CHN (11:45) has never been detected and will never be seen on your blood work from your doctor. So we see microbial imbalances. We also see toxins which contribute to this number of 200. So pesticides in 1990, right, we had let's go back to the 50s. We talked about say five or 10 in 100 ,000 to 1990 where it was about 150 to today where it's almost 456 per hundred thousand people with bowel disease. In the 1950s there was a handful of pesticides for use.   1990s it was 700 to 900, today it's 18 to 20 ,000 different pesticides approved for use in North America. And so this is a direct correlation, also looking at processed foods and packaged foods and seed oil consumption, the decrease in natural foods like eggs and animal fats, the increase in these artificial foods that we're now taking in. I'm not even arguing are animal fats good or bad for your heart, what I'm saying is we've eaten less of them than ever before and have more diseases than ever before.   Michelle (12:39) Mm -hmm. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (12:41) And so we have to look at these correlations and go, wait a minute, something is up. Now I'm a big fan of red meat and fatty tissues. I eat a lot of fat and a lot of meat and my body's amazing, my blood is great, right? But this is what we see, microbial imbalances, toxicity from foods, from the environment, from other places. And then we have again, a dietary nutrient deficiency. So diets, 60 to 80 % of the standard American diet is processed, refined. comes from a bag, a freezer, a box or a drive -through.   We have nutrients in our soil. Back in 2008, there was a study from the University of Texas who estimated you need eight oranges today to get the same level of nutrition that your great great grandmother would have out of one single orange due to tilling of the soil, the pesticides, right? Modern farming. So we have dysbiosis, which leads to toxins coming out or your toxins contribute to this as well. We have nutrient deficiencies because our food is more fake.   Michelle (13:22) Yeah, crazy.   Josh Dech - CHN (13:36) And then we have microbial imbalances overgrowing. No wonder your body's throwing a fit. Because since the beginning of time, whether you believe it was 5 ,000 years or 500 billion years, since the beginning of time, we've never had these issues. In fact, still today, the further away you go from the Western world, where we're eating all this food and covered in these toxins and these chemicals, the further away you go, the less disease you see. There's a direct correlation to living back naturally. Hunter gatherer tribes, they're like, what is infertility?   What do mean back pain? what are arthritis, Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, kidney disease, liver disease, diabetes. What are those? They don't skin issues, acne. These are things we call normal. They've never seen it before. And this is why this is how we get disease. Yeah.   Michelle (14:16) Yeah.   That is so crazy. I mean, it's really crazy. It's crazy to think about and it's crazy that this is acceptable and that there's no regulation and nobody's really protecting the health of the people. mean, enough is enough. Like it's just so frustrating because we, because people know that it's bad. They know it and they do it anyway. And, and in many countries, many of these pesticides are banned and they know that it can impact fertility. Now they're linking a lot of them.   Josh Dech - CHN (14:33) I hear you.   Michelle (14:50) So it's so frustrating. It's so frustrating for me to see my patients having to climb an uphill battle just so that they can protect their reproductive health. Like it's just crazy. And also it's interesting that you were talking about how the dysbiosis has passed on from situations or conditions such as Crohn's disease.   Josh Dech - CHN (15:03) Yeah.   Michelle (15:15) And it's interesting because like people would say, it's inherited, it's DNA. You would think that it's kind of the DNA, but it's actually, you're saying that it's the dysbiosis that's being passed on. I'm sure there's some level of DNA, like susceptibility as well, but that's kind of an interesting take or an understanding of it because you're like, okay, like that's not something that people thought about. And we know very well.   Josh Dech - CHN (15:33) sure.   Well, I'd love to...   Michelle (15:43) that the mother passes on her microbiome to the baby.   Josh Dech - CHN (15:48) She does. Yeah. I'd love to break those three things for you I could Michelle and just a matter of minutes. You know, we look at IBD Crohn's colitis. It's just genetic. It's autoimmune or there's no known cause. Well, we just talked about number one. These are the three pillars that stands on for your doctor to say it's meds for life or surgery. That's what they have.   Michelle (16:06) So you're saying this is the perspective of medicine, what you just said. Yeah. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (16:11) Yeah, sorry, let me clarify. So if you've been diagnosed with Crohn's colitis or even IBS, you've been told it's genetic or it's an autoimmune condition or there's no known cause. That's what your doctors told you to date. And they say your best bet is medication or surgery. That's your only hope. What I'm saying is none of that makes sense. And I'll tell you why idiopathic means no known cause. We just talked about seven different causes inherited dysbiosis increase in toxins and chemicals. The last hundred years we've had   80 to 100 ,000 new chemicals added to our lives, most of them in our food. And so what you put in your gut, you're going to tell me doesn't affect my gut. That's nonsense. That's number one. So there has to be a cause because we've seen cases, even looking at the data per CDC, about 3 million cases worldwide in 1990. Today it's seven to 8 million. So cases have doubled, almost tripled in the last 30 years. So there has to be a cause. So it can't be unknown. Like they say it is number two.   Michelle (17:08) Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (17:11) They say that it's just genetic. Well, 50 % of those seven or eight million cases, North America is less than 5 % of the population. They have 50 to 60 % of all the world's cases of bowel diseases. So when 5 % has 50 % in the last 30 years where it's blown up, it cannot just be genetic. That would take thousands of years and most of those things weed themselves out of the gene pool. The last one is it's autoimmune.   Well, looking at the actual antibodies per studies, the ones that we see, even like P. Anka, we call it. This one, 70 % of those with ulcerative colitis will have this antibody. Well, it can be caused by mesalamine, a drug they use to treat Crohn's colitis, by stress, by fungal infections, by other bacterial overgrows, antibiotics. These antibodies, only 40 to 60 % have any antibodies at all. And the ones that do,   can be very well explained by nearly anything else that can go on inside the body, such as dysbiosis states, parasites, infections, antibiotic use, the very drugs in Miran, azathioprine, the ones they use to treat Crohn's and colitis can cause these antibodies. So it can't be autoimmune. And even if it was truly autoimmune, at least 50 % don't have any antibodies at all, but you're treating it like it's autoimmune. So the three pillars they have to stand on, Michelle, to say you need drugs for the rest of your life.   Michelle (18:23) Wow.   Josh Dech - CHN (18:34) There's no hope for you. Your life is basically ruined. It's management or we cut the organs out. None of it makes any sense by their own data. And this, this little perspective shift changes everything.   Michelle (18:41) No.   My God, this is so important. It's so important that people hear this because I think that we just take it for what it is for truth, absolute truth. When we go and I've had, I've had the same situation for my irregular periods, but you know, it could be anything. And then you're going and you get an answer that, you know, just doesn't seem to feel right. And you talk about the possibility to cure diseases. Can all diseases be cured?   Josh Dech - CHN (19:12) Yeah, it's really interesting because I like to throw that question out there because the word cure is sort of a dirty word in the Western world. It's not something they are. And most doctors are because it's a huge claim to make. I cannot legally in my practice, because I'm not a medical doctor, right? I work with doctors, I'm a physician's consultant, and that's all great, but I'm not a doctor. I cannot legally use the words cure, treat, or heal in the context of what I do. But what I can say is this.   Michelle (19:20) Yeah, people are afraid of it. Yeah. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (19:43) I believe all diseases have a root. Disease is not innate to your biology or DNA. We even talk about genetics, right? Let's go back to the genetic weak link of bowel disease. Sure, you get five people in a room, Michelle, you expose everybody to mold. One gets really bad periods. One gets Crohn's or colitis. One gets asthma. One gets Parkinson's disease. Another one gets nothing. Because when your genes are exposed, say dysbiosis, it puts stress on the genetic links, the genetic chain.   When you're toxic or infected, it puts stress. There's a study called neutrogenomics, which is nutrients and genetics and their correlation and reactions together were depleted. So these genes are getting stretched and pulled on the chain. The weak link is the one that snaps first. So there's no doubt there's a genetic component to bowel disease or what you're dealing with, but there are things that are stressing that chain. If you can pull down the stress and give your body what it needs to simply function normally, you're going to be just fine.   Michelle (20:28) Mm.   Josh Dech - CHN (20:42) Your body's gonna do what it has to do. It's gonna heal itself. And these quote genetic conditions sort of just go away because they were never really genetic. It was just exploiting what may have been a weak link. You go, well, I had my gene tested. I've got the MTHFR, so I can't methylate. I can't do this. Every form of natural nutrients that comes from the soil, that comes from animal meat, that comes from the earth in any way, your body will use a methylate.   It's all the artificial or fortified versions. It's the folic acid. They spray on the grains and crops. It's not the actual nutrients from earth. It's the artificial stuff you can't use. So don't beat yourself up about it. Just grow your own food.   Michelle (21:11) Mm -hmm. Right. Correct. Yeah.   Ooh, I love that. It's so true and it's so nice to hear it put in that way for people listening to this that's a huge issue for a lot of people trying to conceive because for so long, they've been having folic acid and also if they're eating grains, even if they don't want folic acid, it's kind of like shoved in our faces. So we're forced to eat it. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (21:41) Yes, and folic acid is basically poison. I mean, we know, right? Tested like MTHFR, popularized gene, there's a snip in there, changes your morphology, how your genes will activate. 44 % cannot use folic acid, but doctors give folic acid to 100 % of women who are pregnant. Why? If you can't use the folic acid, it actually can cause blood pressure issues. It can cause all kinds of issues, cognitive impairment, anxiety, depressive issues, gut issues.   Michelle (22:02) Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (22:10) probably fertility issues, right? I can't speak to that one specifically, but I would guess through the chain of events. Well, there you go. So you're being given a drug that almost 50 % of the population can't, I call it a drug because it's artificial, that you cannot use that can cause other health complications. Well, no wonder you have gestational diabetes. No wonder you have hypertension. No wonder you have these, you know, prenatal conditions. The Western world treats pregnancy like a disease state. You are sick. We have to treat you, but it's not.   Michelle (22:14) Yeah, yeah, it does. For some people, yeah.   Yeah.   Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (22:40) In the inflammatory markers you get from pregnancy, all these different things, they're actually normal and they're actually a biological beneficial process, which is also connected to your gut, oddly enough.   Michelle (22:52) Everything's connected to your gut. So talk to us. It really is. The more I do this, the more I realize this. It's kind of like just everything's the center. Even Chinese medicine, the spleen and stomach are the digestive couple. And every couple, there's like a yin and yang pair of organs. Every one of them has a different direction. The spleen and stomach is the center. It's kind of like where everything comes from.   Josh Dech - CHN (22:54) All of it.   Mm   Michelle (23:20) So it really is so important and that's, it really comes down to your gut health. So talk to us about like what people can do and really how like kind of take us through like the inflammatory process or the anti -inflammatory approach to your gut.   Josh Dech - CHN (23:38) Yeah, first thing is we just have to remove the nail. That's it. You know, your body is reacting to so much and I describe it like this. Picture your body's like a cup of water. I I got a cup of water next to me here. So picture this cup gets full and fuller and fuller. As the cup starts to fill up, you start to develop symptoms. I'm having menstrual issues. I'm having PMS. I'm having some infertility. I'm having some skin issues. I'm not sleeping. I'm having anxiety, depression, gut issues, et cetera. These are the symptoms you develop.   Michelle (23:41) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (24:07) Now when that cup finally overflows, you now go into your doctor and they say, you have this disease. Cause they're looking at everything that's gotten wet. go, yep, this is just a condition you have. The floor is wetiosis. All right. And they go, this is just what it is. We don't look at what led to it. We don't look at what contributed instead. We go, yep, it's just part of your disease process. It's part of your body. Here's some management for your symptoms. This is numbing cream on the foot. That's what it is. Rather than taking the nail out.   Michelle (24:07) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (24:35) And so we're looking at disease, understand something's filling your cup. And this is how we can begin reversing it. Number one, we have to look at one, what is filling the cup? So this is going to go back to your environment, back to your gut, your microbes, that when the defenses came down, the moat was empty. What came into the castle? That's number one. Number two, how do we drain the body? Cause everyone talks about detoxing. You'll hear 10 day detox, seven day detox, 24 hour detox is always something to sensationalize. But there's all these detoxes.   Michelle (25:01) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (25:04) Yes, your body is detoxing constantly on its own and yes, sometimes it can use some support. There's a good reason for that. But something we often miss is called drainage. Detoxing is gathering the trash. Drainage is bringing it out to the curb. So yes, your liver, your kidneys, your bile ducts are one that most people miss, gallbladder and bile ducts. That's one of the most crucial parts of healing and inflammation. We have to look at your skin, your sinuses, your lungs.   Michelle (25:19) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (25:31) Lymphatics, even your blood, these are all drainage or detox pathways. They help move and transport and organize toxins, but also get them out of the body. So sinuses, skin, lymphatics, et cetera. This is drainage. If we don't have this properly supported, I don't care how many parasite protocols you take or antifungal meds you take or how many detoxes you do. If it's not getting out of the body, it's just moving or it's still collecting. And so it's continuing to fill your glass. Right?   Michelle (25:56) Right.   Josh Dech - CHN (25:58) Your doctor looks at all the things filling up your glass. They don't use it to figure out what's happening or what's causing it. They use it, what's called diagnostic criteria. So they are looking simply to check the symptoms, do their tests in order to meet what fits this box. Once you have enough checks to color in this box, we then can give you these drugs in this order. If they don't work, snip, snip, here's your surgery. And the idea is again, disease is innate.   Michelle (26:23) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (26:25) You just have these symptoms, therefore you just have this condition. There's nothing we can do. And here's how we'll manage. Rather than looking at your symptoms that led to the disease in reverse engineering the process, what is filling your glass and preventing it from emptying? If Western medicine did that, they'd be bankrupt, which is probably why they don't. Because you're talking the three biggest industries, Michelle, in North America are healthcare, so hospitalization, health insurance, and pharmaceuticals.   It makes up 18 % of the entire US GDP. So 18 % of the entire income of the United States of America is healthcare. Yet they are the sickest country on earth. Six out of 10 adults have some kind of chronic illness or chronic inflammatory condition. Six out of 10, it's $4 .7 trillion a year to manage disease. It'd probably be more like 50 to 100 billion. So pennies on the dollar really, if you actually cured everything.   So there is a huge financial incentive to not actually hear anybody. That's messed up.   Michelle (27:26) That's so crazy. I mean, I think it's so messed up. I mean, it's really messed up. think a lot of people know this and there's definitely a lot of money moving around between the food industry and the pharmaceuticals, which I mean, you know, like why.   Josh Dech - CHN (27:44) Yeah, yeah. You get a CEO who goes from Bayer Monsanto, who by the way, just paid out $11 billion with a B, $11 billion in lawsuits because their glyphosate product caused so many cases of cancer. There's over a hundred thousand lawsuits pending. They paid it over 11 billion with another 30 to 40 ,000 lawsuits still pending. And guess what? They're still allowed to use the product. Even though it's been proven hundreds of thousands of times to cause cancer and other dangers.   because super unethical, we live in a horribly unethical system based on lobbying. Get one more for you. There's a chemical called chlorpyrifos. It's an organophosphate. Organophosphates are nerve agents. If you've ever heard of sarin gas, for example, used in the Tokyo subway attacks in the eighties in Syria against the Halabja people, it's a nerve agent. It is a toxin, organophosphates, particularly sarin gas.   Michelle (28:15) It's so unethical.   Yeah.   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (28:41) Well, there's 800 plus organophosphates of the same class, these nerve agents that are used on our food. One recently was re -approved for use called chlorpyrifos just back in November 23 or December 23, was re -approved for use. Well, this was being explored in the 1930s and 40s by Nazi scientists as chemical warfare on humans, but they put it in our food. Then you get people going, well, the poison makes the dose. Okay, I get that. Yeah, if it was.   Michelle (28:47) Mm   man.   Josh Dech - CHN (29:09) microns of chlorpyrifos, your body would get rid of it. But we got over a billion pounds of chemicals every year on our food that we consume. We've actually consumed now four times more pesticides per person than we used to in the 90s, because there's so many more of them. The poison that know, the dose makes the poison. Yes. But we've also 17 times our dose, of course, we're so toxic, of course, everyone's poisoned. And so these are the things we have to consider.   Michelle (29:34) Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (29:37) But circling back, these are the toxins contributing to your glass filling up. So you want to empty the bathtub, turn off the tap, right? So let's put a hole in the toxins. Simple as the clean 15 and dirty dozen list from the EWG, Environmental Working Group. Go organic where you can, or just don't buy it, right? There's a lot of other ways. It doesn't have to have the organic label. I don't buy all organic. There's a farmer's marketing in my house.   Michelle (29:45) Yeah.   Right.   Josh Dech - CHN (30:02) And I talked to the farmers, they do one fungicide spray at beginning of the year on the ground, and then all their crops grow. That is a risk reward ratio I'm willing to accept. It's the same price, but there's one spray instead of the average strawberry has like 12 pesticides on it. And so that's what I'm willing to accept for myself. And I will adapt to the rest. And so turn off the tap, start changing out the toxic environment, start making some of these better modifications. One of the top toxins or pollutants for humans is actually recirculated indoor air. Open your windows.   Michelle (30:03) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (30:32) Just where you can, open them up, let some fresh air come in. And this we can start, this is turning off the tap. Then we can open our drainage and detox pathways. And then we can begin removing the invaders that came into the castle. And then we can begin repairing and rebuilding the walls and everything that was destroyed after these invaders came in. That's sort of the process affectionately typically referred to as the five Rs. There's sort of an acronym we can use in there for that, but that's the idea.   Michelle (30:33) Hmm, yeah.   Yeah. And a lot of people just say, then I'll just get probiotics. But then I, I'm learning, you know, that not are created equal. So I wanted to get your thoughts on that. Like I just, the different types of probiotics, everything comes out. Another company says, ours is special because of this, that, and the other. Then there's a spore based probiotics, which are more likely to survive our entire tract. So.   Josh Dech - CHN (31:04) Mm.   Yes.   Michelle (31:26) I'd love to pick your brain on that.   Josh Dech - CHN (31:29) I'd love to sure. So spore based probiotics, they're more like seeds, and they're typically coded to get to the large intestine. This is where 90 % of your intestinal bacteria actually live is in the large intestine right where it connects to the small intestine and that whole area there. That's where most of them live. And so the spores will get there the like seeds that plant and grow trees that bear fruit. We have other probiotics, which you're right, not all are made equally, a lot of them will come in, they're dead, but you still can get benefits. If you think about   Let's go to pro, pre and post biotics, right? The three things I think we often get mixed up. I think of it like fish in a fish bowl. Probiotics are the fish, the living organism that swim around in the bowl. Prebiotics are fish food and postbiotics are what the fish poop out. If you look at your bacteria the same, they're your fish in your fish bowl, the living organisms, the probiotics are the fish. This is what moves around and engages with your body. They do so much for you. They produce vitamins and minerals and nutrients.   Michelle (32:04) Mm -hmm. Mm -hmm.   Josh Dech - CHN (32:28) help balance hormones and detoxify and help with your immune system. They do all kinds of great things, mostly through how they signal to the body. But then your prebiotics are what they eat. So this is going to be your fibers, it's going to be your carbs and starches, some proteins, there's going to be some things that they will consume, which creates the post biotics your body likes, the short chain fatty acids and minerals or the vitamins and all these things. And so we consume probiotics, a lot of them we eat are dead.   So you're still getting the postbiotic or the bacterial poop, if you will, of all the benefits, which come in, come out in a couple of days. It might be very short term and they're kind of out the door, but along the way they can have a lot of really good beneficial signaling to the body, to the immune system. It's like a radio signal. They come in and out beep, beep, beep, beep, they send signals back and forth. Your body makes changes. On the other hand, what a lot of people don't recognize is maybe if you have a condition like SIBO, small intestinal bacterial overgrowth,   Michelle (33:00) Mm   Mm -hmm.   Josh Dech - CHN (33:25) you have a bacterial overgrowth. Sometimes adding probiotics in, there are classes of bacteriums called bacteriocins, which will kill bacteria. So they might be beneficial in SIBO. For example, lactobacillus reuteri or rooteri, call it tomato tomata. But this one can act as a bacteriocin has been shown in clinical to be beneficial in a lot of cases for SIBO to reduce the bacteria. On the other hand, some might contribute to the problem. I had a client with parasites.   Michelle (33:42) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (33:55) And she was consuming a lot of probiotics, which were higher in histamines, which contribute to the issue because parasites also can create histamine issues. Even bone broth was bad for her gut because it's high in histamine. And so it made her issues worse. so considering we got probably a thousand, maybe 2000 species, seven to 9 ,000 strains of bacteria makes 15 to 20 million different bacteria. In fact, there's a hundred, think it's 130 times more DNA in your gut bacteria.   Michelle (34:07) Mm -hmm, right.   Josh Dech - CHN (34:25) than you actually have in the rest of your body. 23 ,000 genes or so in your human genome, 3 million genes inside of your bacteria. So you take this handful of probiotics out of 3 million different genetic strains, it's like a grain of sand on a beach. It may help, it may not. I wouldn't rely on them as a fix all. And there's a lot of ways in there where you can actually cause more problems. You could put black sand on a white beach and you're gonna notice it until it gets mixed in and disperses enough. It can create a problem. And so we have to really   Michelle (34:39) Yeah, yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (34:54) keep an eye on what we're putting into our body. I think throwing probiotics in sort of willy -nilly can lead to a lot of issues.   Michelle (35:02) Yeah. What about a Sporebase, which are better for SIBO? What are your thoughts on that?   Josh Dech - CHN (35:07) Well, spore based, see they're better for SIBO. I've heard that as well. I think my initial thought is look, they get to the large intestine, less so the small intestine. So we're not contributing to the small intestinal issues. But one of the contributors I do see of SIBO, for example, would be parasites. They tend to hang in the bile ducts, like we talked about there, the all important drainage pathways in the liver of the appendix and what's called the ileocecal valve. So right where your small and large intestine will actually connect.   Michelle (35:16) Mm   Mm   Mm -hmm.   Josh Dech - CHN (35:37) Parasites can hang out in these issues actually messing with your valves. So even if you have spores going into the large intestine, they can still backflow because the valves will say are broken or jacked up can get into the small intestine. And a lot of SIBO conditions are fecal microbes. So large bowel microbes getting into the small intestine where they should not be. And these areas can cause a lot of problems now too. So I don't know if I'd say they're better for or maybe just less bad then, but maybe it can contribute to the problem. It's hard to say.   Michelle (35:40) Mm.   Mm -hmm.   Mm -hmm. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (36:07) But ultimately, know, SIBO is a really nasty condition to have to deal with, but I've seen it as one of the roots that can develop into Crohn's or colitis as well, other bowel diseases.   Michelle (36:17) Wow. And what about parasites? So what are some of the things that you can do to, because a lot of times you won't see that in like more generic tests.   Josh Dech - CHN (36:27) Yeah, they're very difficult to detect parasites. Even some of the best testing you'll get for stool testing, you're 40 % accurate unless you're finding ovum, live worms or protozoa eggs, et cetera. You know, there's about a million different types of parasites estimated that are available on planet earth. About 1400 can infect humans and you know, it's like, well, I've taken ivermectin or I've taken babendazole or fembendazole some kind of Zol, which is supposed to be good for parasites and they can be.   Michelle (36:35) Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (36:55) But of the 1400 types, you might not be targeting more than three or four. And again, if your drainage pathways aren't open, you're not really going to be successfully clearing stuff. And so we're looking at parasites. say testing is relatively inaccurate. We have to go by symptoms and even blood, blood chemistry. It's not something I'm an expert in, but I do know people who are very proficient in what's called functional blood chemistry. Well, they'll look at your blood work and go, definitely you have a parasite and here's where I think it is or what type I think it is, which   To me is like wizardry. I just have no idea. I'm not that good at blood work, but it's really amazing art. so testing is not amazing for them. Most doctors believe parasites are a third world problem because that's what they were told 20 years ago in med school. But look what we have, the level of immigration we have, the level of import export we have, the level of accessibility for traveling all around the world that we have. Maybe if they used to be, but they're everywhere now to the point where if you've got a pulse, you probably got a parasite.   Michelle (37:32) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (37:51) The question is, it causing you a problem right now or not? Because parasites, fungi, bacteria, viruses, they all live in harmony in a healthy gut. With great great grandmothers, 1000 microbes. But now we've got 200 microbes, this dysbiotic state, these opportunistic parasites or fungi or bacteria now overgrow because they have the room to do so. Nothing's keeping them in check. And now they're a problem. So this isn't to say parasites are all bad. Sometimes they're very, very good.   Michelle (38:19) Mm -hmm. Mm -hmm.   Josh Dech - CHN (38:21) but they're now becoming problematic because we're all so sick.   Michelle (38:24) So what do you do and what are some of the symptoms that people can have?   Josh Dech - CHN (38:28) so many. So we look at parasites, again, going through symptomatology, I like that we bring this through, because symptoms often speak louder than testing. That's something you have to keep in mind. Again, a parasite test at 40 % accuracy can come back negative 10 times in a row. So we have to look at, you know, abdominal pain. Do you have pain when you palpate or press around the liver, the gallbladder? Do you have all your organs? So looking at tonsils, appendix, gallbladder, if you've lost those, there may be a parasite route.   Michelle (38:38) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (38:58) back pain, hip pain, like joint pains, seasonal allergies or other allergies that seem to come up. If you have gut issues and gut symptoms, for example, that may be come and go. So every couple of weeks up and then they're down or seasonally, for example, this could be parasites due to their life cycles, high cholesterol or liver enzymes that are elevated, frequent sinus infections, anemia, because parasites will actually eat iron. They can eat   like lungs, liver, kidneys, they can eat iron, they can eat lymphatic fluids if you've got lymphatic issues, mumps chronically, tonsillitis chronically, these can be parasitic issues in nature. Even infertility. Parasites love especially female reproductive organs. So PCOS can sometimes be a parasitic issue at the root or a metabolic issue which may have a parasitic component because parasites can get to these areas in your body.   actually encapsulate them in a cyst or a tumor, hence cancers, which is actually a protective mechanism or thought to be protective, where it's trying to enclose these things in rather than DNA mutating and causing a problem. We can have anxiety, depression, hair loss, early hair loss, liver enzymes are elevated, think I mentioned that, psoriasis, eczema, really classic symptoms, rashes and hives, that's just a handful. There's probably 50 or 60 symptoms that could be parasites.   but we have to go back to context. You know, have rashes and hives, okay, well could be something else. There could be parasites. Let's look at the rest of the symptoms. I'm not saying if you have one of these things or all these things, I mean, if you have all these things, probably parasites, but if you just have a few, it could be something else, but I wouldn't rule parasites out.   Michelle (40:34) Mm   And what do you usually do to treat them?   Josh Dech - CHN (40:43) Great question. This is something that can be very finicky. Again, a lot of people I talk to, you're hearing this going, I've taken a parasite protocol, I've done a cleanse, it didn't help. You're trying to evict tenants from the building. Are the doors unlocked? And so if you're trying to get rid of parasites, is your drainage open? So we have to work on drainage support. What we do with clients, it's a combination of a lot of things. There's supplementation, there's nutritional, there's lifestyle. Sometimes it's a combination of acupuncture enemas, like coffee enemas.   Michelle (40:57) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (41:13) There's a lot of different things we can utilize the open drainage pathways, but everyone's different. And it's something that it really should be done on a supervision. I know you're hearing this right now. Go, I can do that. I can do acupuncture might help you. It might not. It is, but I don't want you putting yourself in the hospital. I have to say that because we can move too many toxins too quickly. You can actually create a commonly known Herc's Heimer reaction, Herc's H -R -X. And this Herc's Heimer reaction is just   Michelle (41:13) Mm   Mm   Yeah, that's important.   Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (41:41) Basically, you're taking too many toxins, you're mobilizing them and your body can't get rid of them properly and you're making yourself very ill. So this is definitely a professional supervision issue, but these are things we can do. So number one is drainage in tandem with or post actually getting rid of or reducing your toxic loads for no longer, right? Turn off the tap. We have to open the drainage pathway so things can get out. We have to begin removing very systematically the problem. I've got clients say 10 of them who are taking the exact same parasite protocol for parasites.   Michelle (41:45) Mm -hmm. Yeah. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (42:11) but what they're actually doing is that they're taking them 10 different ways, right? Some of them are tapering in one day on, seven off, one day on, six off, one and five. Some are doing full moon protocol. Some are high dose, some are low. Some are cycling through. Some are consistent dosing. Everyone's different based on their presentations and going the wrong way can make people very, very sick as well. So it's a bit of a tailored and catered process, but the gist would be drainage support.   antiparasitic, supporting what your body lacks or needs, mitochondrial support, so cellular health and cellular well -being, because that's really where drainage and detoxing starts, is at the cellular level, not the macro level so much. And this is sort of a brief overview of that might look like.   Michelle (42:55) So interesting. And another question that I have, a lot of times you'll hear about the keto diet and how I'm not big on fad diets in general, because it's like everything's customized, but you hear about the benefits for some people. The thing with that is that there's barely any fiber. It's really, really low in fiber. So I just wanted to get your take on that.   Josh Dech - CHN (43:05) Sure.   Sure. It was really interesting. Look at someone like Michaela Peterson, right? Does an amazing job with the lion diet, which is basically red meat, salt and water. I am not against it. I think it's a great therapeutic diet. I'm not sold entirely. I've met with some amazing carnivore doctors and specialists, but I will say I don't believe plants are inherently bad for humans. I do believe an animal based diet tends to be better, but the question has to be asked, is it the pesticides and the chemicals on our food that makes plants the problem?   Is it plants themselves? Is it the GMOs and the crops that never existed even 100 or 500 years ago that were not accustomed to eating? The arguments can be made for dairy, where humans have only really domesticated dairy animals for 10 to 15 ,000 years. So are we really adapted to eating dairy? Have we developed or evolved these enzymes and processes to properly assimilate dairy? So the argument about plants versus animal -based   I can put it on a very macro level without getting to the nitty gritty and say this. The bigger fish in the bowl, we talked about prebiotics, they eat fiber, right? The bigger fish in the fish bowl will eat first. If you have an overgrowth of bad bacterium, we'll say, we'll say opportunistic, they're causing you problems and they eat first, they poop out problematic things. So going to the lion diet, you're not gonna get nearly as many microbes eating meat, for example, as they would fibers or starches or sugars. So if you cut those things out right away,   you've reduced the poop or the byproducts, we call them endotoxins of these microbes by simply cutting fiber. And so you may be starving some out, you may be just not getting over gross, you may be no longer contributing to poisons or toxins so much. And there's two arguments to be made. Well, the beef or the animal might filter the toxins. The other argument is what's called bio magnification, which is where it condenses all these toxins in the tissues, which you then consume. But you can't argue with the data, millions of people.   Michelle (44:49) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (45:15) all over the world go carnivore or keto and feel better. The question is, do I believe carbs are inherently bad for you? No. Do I believe they should be more sparingly? Yes, just simply biologically. but, but, but this is the big but, we have to understand that your current state of health and how it's utilizing what you're putting into it makes all the difference. You could put gasoline into a car and it's going to drive for miles. You put gasoline into a car that's on fire and it's going to make a bigger fire.   Michelle (45:19) Mm   Mm   Mm -hmm. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (45:45) So it's not the fuel source necessarily that I believe is the problem as much as the body you're putting it into and what's going on on a microbial level.   Michelle (45:51) Yes. that's so important. And I think that, yeah, a lot of what you're saying is so important, but that's really the key crux of it is that your body and your body's condition and your snapshot in time at this moment has unique needs, even unique to five years ago, the same body, which actually it's a different body because the body changes all the time. So it is really important that you work with somebody.   Josh Dech - CHN (46:04) Yeah.   Michelle (46:17) and not do this at home on your own and not self -diagnose because it could be very tempting to do. This is great information, but just hold yourself back from self -diagnosing. Reach out to people like Josh. So actually my next question, if people do want to work with you, how can they reach you? How can they find out more about your work and what you do and get help with their own gut and inflammation?   Josh Dech - CHN (46:19) Yes.   Yeah, I'd love to be able to help Michelle. The quickest way to reach me, you can find everything you need through our website, gutsolution .ca. We got clients in 26 different countries and all the concurrent time zones. So don't worry about where you're located. We can help. That's gutsolution, all singular, .ca for Canada. You can find our podcast, Reversible, where it's about the gut. It's all how all things impact the gut and vice versa. Michelle, we had you record an episode there recently and it's how our gut and our world interact. It's called Reversible.   Reverse Able, the Ultimate Gut Health podcast. And there's also one we released recently about, I'd say six or eight weeks ago, it's called Reversing Crohn's and Colitis Naturally. And it's all about just Crohn's, Colitis and the cruxes and the roots and how we actually get at the root causes of these. But all that can be found, the website, the podcast, contact, help information can all be found at gutsolution .ca.   Michelle (47:37) And how do you work with people?   Josh Dech - CHN (47:38) Yeah, contrary to what most people believe, we don't actually need to see you in person at all. Strictly through symptoms, I get photos if we need them. We'll have you take pictures of your fingernails, pictures of your tongue, for example. It's part of Chinese medicine, as you know, can give us lots of information. We look at blood work. We'll look at your symptoms. We'll look at you as an individual. And we'll spend, I'll spend 30 minutes to an hour on a first call. We get someone through the program and register. There's probably 100, 200 different questions.   Michelle (47:49) Mm   Mm   Josh Dech - CHN (48:08) Extremely thorough intake we do secondary interviews then we do programming and we actually work with you on a weekly basis for 16 weeks very hand -holding process and that's what it looks like because Dealing with bowel disease, know that things can change in an instant You can go from healthy to a flare or healthy to sick to constipation to diarrhea What your doctor does is here's a med see me in three to six months. We'll see how you're doing That doesn't help. You're barely managing and your body can be so finicky   Michelle (48:33) Mm Yeah. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (48:37) And so our job is 16 weeks. And I'll tell you, Michelle, we had a lady recently came out of our program was working not with myself, actually, with Curtis, one of our other specialists. And 16 weeks, she came out after 15 years. She was diagnosed in 2013, a couple of years of bowel disease before that. Her colon was so severe, she described it as squirrels with razor blades running around on her insides. So severe, they were on the cusp of cutting her bowels out. 16 weeks, she came back, her doctors jaw on the floor is like, I've never seen anything like this.   Michelle (48:58) my God, wow. Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (49:06) perfect colonoscopy. had one little speck left that we're still obviously going to be fixing, but it took 16 weeks. That's it. And not everybody responds as well. Some respond quicker, but this is what's possible. And I just really want to encourage just if you're listening to this right now, you're like, I've got Crohn's colitis or even severe IBS. I've been told it's genetic autoimmune. There's no known cause. So much can be done. Just start with the website. There's podcasts on there. There's information on that. There's videos on there.   Michelle (49:14) Wow.   Yeah.   Josh Dech - CHN (49:35) There's so much about it that we just want to creak that door open for you and show you what's possible. But again, just head to gut solution .ca and do some diving.   Michelle (49:44) Awesome. Josh, this is amazing. Really, really amazing. And also so important. I can't even stress it enough. I see it a lot even in my patients that come in. and something that I think everybody listening to this, if you're trying to conceive,   you have to go check out Josh and listen to his podcast and learn more because I think it's just so valuable. So thank you so much for coming on today. This is great.   Josh Dech - CHN (50:07) Thank you.   It's been a pleasure, Michelle. And if I could leave one little nugget, if you're considering, if you're trying to conceive or have plans in the future, get ahead of the gut because you can, we talked about great grandma passing down this dysbiosis to you, you can pass down disease to your children. It'll be called genetic. I've seen babies, know, infants. I'm talking a couple of months to two, three years old with bowel disease because we just didn't know ahead of time that we need to be dealing with our gut issues before having children.   because these are the issues we can pass. All those opportunistic microbes, the fungi and parasites, they will come from you to your baby. And this goes both ways. The sperm quality has a lot more to do with it than we used to. We used to say, well, everything's up to mom. It is in development, but even the sperm quality, if mom or dad have gut issues, there's a much higher risk for your baby having some kind of issue down the road. And I just really want to encourage you, if you think there might be gut stuff where you know there's a diagnosis, start there.   long before conception, only will it help in your ability to conceive but to carry a baby to full term and have a healthy baby to give them the best possible future. That's where we start. We have to start in your guts.   Michelle (51:20) So important. Thank you so much, Josh.   Josh Dech - CHN (51:23) A pleasure, Michelle. Thank you for having me.    

Yesterday's US GDP revisions offered several lessons to investors. The tendency for many countries to revise economic activity frequently, significantly, and positively is a reminder that real-time data lacks precision and data dependency is not a proper policy framework. Someone should attempt to explain that to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The 2022 “technical recession” (a media term, not an economist's term) was predictably revised out of existence.

Gold closed the week at $2,658 (up $37 since last week) and silver at $31.62 (up $0.47). We discuss the drivers of this week's new highs, stalling homebuying, and key news next week. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Consumer confidence plunges to lowest level since 2021 -US GDP revision reports 3.0% growth in spring -August PCE is down, suggesting even more rate cuts to come -Survey shows 82% of 2024 homebuyers express doubts -China announces $280 billion bond campaign to save collapsing real estate -Swiss National Bank cuts rates, following ECB Quote of the Week: Gold is money. It's still, by all evidence, a premier currency, where central bankers hold it." -Ron Paul The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice.

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Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The student loan foregiveness agenda is failing, the SC ruled against this but [JB] went ahead with it. Now the people must bear the burden of paying it back for them, socialism 101. Milei is now making a move against the [CB], the country will be able to use alternative currencies like Bitcoin. Trump begins the tariff narrative so people start asking questions. Tariffs work without the [CB]. The [DS] is now in a panic, they have lost the people and they need to change their candidate. The first debate is the start, the people will see that something is wrong with Biden but not to the point where people are shocked. This will build the narrative for the 25th amendment. America First Legal is doing house cleaning, WH is going to be secure.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1803795155176108154 https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1803596806334587013 https://twitter.com/houmanhemmati/status/1803453270205276652   California has the strongest gun laws but the most mass shootings. California spends the most on homelessness but has the largest homeless population. Clearly there's a major disconnect between every California policy and its outcome. What's the common denominator? The political establishment in Sacramento that taxes California to death and objectively produces the worst outcomes in the nation. It's time for major change. Stop electing anyone from the political establishment. https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1803788050515833156     https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1803789656477118494  compared to ~7% currently. Since 2020, the index has dropped by a massive 80% from ~140 points. Meanwhile, the median US home sale price reached a new record of $393,627. Housing affordability is somehow still getting worse. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1803493673155358916   conditions outlook at its worst in 50 years, according to NFIB. Small firms are a major part of the economy, reflecting ~44% of US GDP and employing 50% of the American workforce. If small businesses' outlook is grim this does not bode well for the labor market and the broader economy. https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1803604241715490944  William McKinley (January 29, 1843 – September 14, 1901) was an American politician who served as the 25th president of the United States from 1897 until his assassination in 1901. A member of the Republican Party, he led a realignment that made Republicans largely dominant in the industrial states and nationwide for decades. He presided over victory in the Spanish–American War of 1898; gained control of Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the Philippines and Cuba; restored prosperity after a deep depression; rejected the inflationary monetary policy of free silver, keeping the nation on the gold standard; and raised protective tariffs. McKinley's presidency saw rapid economic growth. He promoted the 1897 Dingley Tariff to protect manufacturers and factory workers from foreign competition and in 1900 secured the passage of the Gold Standard Act. He hoped to persuade Spain to grant independence to rebellious Cuba without conflict, but when negotiation failed, he requested and signed Congress's declaration of war to begin the Spanish-American War of 1898, in which the United States saw a quick and decisive victory. As part of the peace settlement, Spain turned over to the United States its main overseas colonies of Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines while Cuba was promised independen...