Podcasts about Abenomics

Today's guest is the new US Treasury Secretary, serving under Donald Trump. The role gives him immense responsibility for managing US obligations and finances, including circa. $7 trillion of annual US federal spending, the $35+ trillion fiscal debt pile and continued inflationary pressures on both US businesses and consumers. Prior to this, Scott was a globally respected and market-moving hedge fund investor. He was key player on the George Soros's team, who in 1992 helped the Quantum Fund make $1bn, shorting sterling ahead of the UK's withdrawal from the ERM. Then, as Soros's CIO, he was also dubbed ‘The Man Who Broke the Bank of Japan' by the Wall Street Journal, making approximately $3.5bn on the Abenomics trade from 2012-2015! Scott is widely acknowledged to be one of the world's most highly respected macro hedge fund managers, and is the Founder of Key Square Capital Management. He has also taught financial history at Yale and is a prominent philanthropist. In this episode, Scott explains the key ingredients in being a macro manager. He charts his journey, working with legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros. He opines on a range of key investment themes, including his thoughts on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, the Ukraine rebuild, and AI. He also shares his analysis of the fast-evolving markets in both China and Japan. Scott goes on to discuss risk, when and how he sizes positions, signposts that influence conviction, and dealing with information overload. A tour de force! Interview originally recorded in September 2023. ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn |  Watch on YouTube

参院本会議で答弁する石破茂首相、８日午後、国会内石破茂首相は８日午後の参院本会議の代表質問で、安倍晋三元首相の経済政策「アベノミクス」について、「デフレではない状況をつくり出し、国内総生産を高め、雇用を拡大し、企業収益の増加傾向にもつながった」と一定の評価を示した。 Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policy mix, dubbed Abenomics, failed to boost personal consumption in the country, new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suggested Tuesday.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policy mix, dubbed Abenomics, failed to boost personal consumption in the country, new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suggested Tuesday.

Shinzo Abe was a Japanese politician who served as the Prime Minister of Japan. He held the position from 2006 to 2007 and then again from 2012 to 2020, making him one of the longest-serving prime ministers in Japanese history. Abe is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and comes from a prominent political family; his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, also served as Prime Minister. During his tenure, Abe pursued various economic, foreign policy, and security reforms, and he was known for his advocacy of "Abenomics," a set of economic policies aimed at revitalizing Japan's economy. Additionally, Abe's tenure saw efforts to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities and assert its presence in regional security affairs, particularly in response to concerns about China's rising influence and North Korea's nuclear program.Japan is one of the last places you'd expect to hear about gun violence, never mind a politically motivated assassination. Yet, that is exactly what happened when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was gunned down in cold blood.(commercial at 8:36)to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japan-leader-abe-reportedly-shot-campaign-speech-86423527

Japan's stock market has made a big comeback this year. Could the country finally be leaving the lost decades behind? Lee Kim Siang speaks to Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, to break it all down. Synopsis: Every first, third and fifth Monday of the month, The Business Times breaks down useful financial tips. Highlights of the conversation:  00:51 The driving forces behind Japan's economic rally 03:39 Is Japan finally overcoming deflation? 04:57 The impact of Abenomics on corporate governance 10:55 How yen weakness impacts investors 13:16 What to watch in the upcoming earnings season --- Now, we want to hear from you! Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg. We'll look into it for future episodes. --- Hosted by: Lee Kim Siang (kimsiang@sph.com.sg) With Naomi Fink, global strategist, Nikko Asset Management Edited by: Emily Liu & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Emily Liu Engineered by: Joann Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media Follow BT Money Hacks podcasts every first, third and fifth Monday of the month: Channel: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks Amazon: bt.sg/mham Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/oeXe  Spotify: bt.sg/oeGN  Google podcasts: bt.sg/oeGP  Website: bt.sg/moneyhacks Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.  --- Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market Podcast at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt  WealthBT at: bt.sg/btwealthbt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/pcOM BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Japan's stock market has made a big comeback this year. Could the country finally be leaving the lost decades behind? Lee Kim Siang speaks to Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, to break it all down. Synopsis: Every first, third and fifth Monday of the month, The Business Times breaks down useful financial tips. Highlights of the conversation:  00:51 The driving forces behind Japan's economic rally 03:39 Is Japan finally overcoming deflation? 04:57 The impact of Abenomics on corporate governance 10:55 How yen weakness impacts investors 13:16 What to watch in the upcoming earnings season --- Now, we want to hear from you! Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg. We'll look into it for future episodes. --- Hosted by: Lee Kim Siang (kimsiang@sph.com.sg) With Naomi Fink, global strategist, Nikko Asset Management Edited by: Emily Liu & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Emily Liu Engineered by: Joann Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media Follow BT Money Hacks podcasts every first, third and fifth Monday of the month: Channel: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks Amazon: bt.sg/mham Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/oeXe  Spotify: bt.sg/oeGN  Google podcasts: bt.sg/oeGP  Website: bt.sg/moneyhacks Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.  --- Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market Podcast at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt  WealthBT at: bt.sg/btwealthbt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/pcOM BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shinzo Abe was a Japanese politician who served as the Prime Minister of Japan. He held the position from 2006 to 2007 and then again from 2012 to 2020, making him one of the longest-serving prime ministers in Japanese history. Abe is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and comes from a prominent political family; his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, also served as Prime Minister. During his tenure, Abe pursued various economic, foreign policy, and security reforms, and he was known for his advocacy of "Abenomics," a set of economic policies aimed at revitalizing Japan's economy. Additionally, Abe's tenure saw efforts to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities and assert its presence in regional security affairs, particularly in response to concerns about China's rising influence and North Korea's nuclear program.Japan is one of the last places you'd expect to hear about gun violence, never mind a politically motivated assassination. Yet, that is exactly what happened when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was gunned down in cold blood.(commercial at 8:36)to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japan-leader-abe-reportedly-shot-campaign-speech-86423527

Market Updates: Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts. Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy. Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains. Interest Rates and Economic Outlook: Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation. Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to benefit. Inflation and Monetary Policy: CPI data reflects higher-than-expected inflation rates, prompting speculation about potential rate cuts in South Africa and implications for economic recovery. Abenomics, Japan's economic policy experiment, demonstrates the effectiveness of unconventional monetary measures in stimulating growth and combating deflation. Company Updates and Reflections: Remgro Results: Remgro's net asset value growth raises questions about the effectiveness of its management strategy, despite trading at a significant discount. Remgro has grown its NAV per share by 5% p.a. since 2010. Over the same period, the ALSI TR index has done 12% p.a. If you expect this underperformance to continue (and nothing in their recent capital allocation decisions indicates otherwise), then a fair discount to NAV is… — Piet Viljoen (@pietviljoen) March 19, 2024   Contrasting performance with Sabvest Capital highlights the importance of superior returns and effective capital allocation in investment decisions. Sun International: Strong financial results from Sun International underscore challenges and opportunities in the leisure and hospitality sector, amid shifting consumer behaviors and economic uncertainties.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy From a global equity perspective, we had upgraded Japan to OW in Dec '22. While we still think that USD is likely to be stronger from here, it might not be crucial to hedge JPY anymore, as the interest rate differential between the US and Japan looks set to start converging this year. For the continued bullish view on Japan, we reiterate: First, TSE reform is set to lead to improved corporate profitability and greater shareholder returns, given that more than half of Japanese stocks are still trading net cash, and 40% are trading below tangible book. Second, even though it feels as though Japan is a consensus overweight, we think that flows are still at an early stage. Foreigners bought 5trn Yen of Japanese stocks in 2023, which compares to 35trn Yen during the Koizumi era and 25trn Yen during Abenomics, the last two times when Japanese stocks moved up more than 100%. Third, there is a case to be made for some reflation in Japan, through house price appreciation and positive wage growth for Japanese consumers, and lastly, Japan is the only large DM market with dividend yield above bond yield, vs historical. In a European context, after outperforming strongly in 2022, the only large DM market up in that year, the UK lagged significantly in 2023. This has left UK at record cheap, even ex US. UK has the highest dividend yield out of all markets, at 4.3% yield, vs 2.0% for MSCI World. With the central bank cutting cycle about to commence, dividend strategies might come into the spotlight. The UK is a commodity-heavy market, and both Materials and Energy lagged last year, dragging the index down. If commodities find a floor, especially as the FCF yields of both Mining and Energy are very high at present, this could help. China outlook could play a role, too. We held a cautious fundamental view on the China market for a while, but recognize that it is heavily underowned and cheap post the big selloff: MSCI China lost 30% in a year. If China sees short squeezes, that could indirectly benefit the UK.   This podcast was recorded on 12 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4622327-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Über Cosco, ein deutscher Weihnachtsmarkt, der nicht sehr deutsch ist, Perspektiven der Abenomics und ein Spiel das einem Hilft endlich den richtigen Ausgang zu finden.Exti 8:https://store.steampowered.com/app/2653790/_/Wollt ihr Hallo sagen?@InsomniaJapan auf Instagramoder:insomniajapanpodcast@gmail.comFalls euch der Podcast gefällt, freuen wir uns sehr über eine Bewertung bei Apple Podcast, oder wo ihr den Podcast hört! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It has always been astonishing to me how hopeless some salespeople are in Japan. Over the last 20 years, I have been through thousands of job interviews with salespeople. We teach sales for our clients and so as a training company we see the good, the bad and the ugly - a very broad gamut of salespeople. We also buy services and products ourselves and so are actively on the receiving end of the sales process. Well actually that is a blatant exaggeration. There are almost no salespeople operating in japan using a sales process. But there are millions of them just winging it (badly).   Why? On The Job Training (OJT) is the main training pedagogical system in Japan for training the new salesperson. This works well if your boss has a clue and knows about selling. Sadly, there are few sales leaders like that populating the Japan sales horizon. So what you get are hand-me-down “techniques” that are ineffective and then even worse, these techniques are poorly executed in the hands of the newbies.   We like to buy, but few of us want to be sold. We like to do business with people we like and trust. We will do business with people we don't like and very, very rarely with people we don't trust. Neither is our preference though. The million dollar question is, “what makes YOU likeable and trustworthy?'   Building rapport in the first meeting with a prospective client is a critical make or break for establishing likeability or trust. When you think about it, this is just the same as in a sales job interview. In both cases we enter an unfamiliar environment and greet strangers who are brimming over with preoccupation, doubt, uncertainty, reluctance and skepticism. If a sales person can't handle a job interview and build rapport straight away, then it is unlikely they are doing much better out in the field, regardless of what is glowingly written down in the resume.   So what do we need to do? Strangely, we need to pay attention to our posture! Huh? It is common sense really - standing up straight communicates confidence. Also, bowing from a half leaning forward posture, especially while we are still on the move, makes us look weak and unconvincing. So walk in standing straight and tall, stop and then bow or shake hands depending on the circumstances. Smiling at the same time would also be good, depending on the situation..   If there is a handshake involved then, at least when dealing with foreigners, drop the dead fish (weak strength) grasp or the double hander (gripping the forearm with the other hand). The latter, is the classic insincere politician double hand grip.   Some Japanese businesspeople I have met, have become overly Westernised, in that they apply a bone crusher grip when shaking hands.  Recently I have met a couple of Japanese businesswomen, who are trying to out man the men and are applying massive grip strength when shaking hands. It sounds very basic advice, but please teach your Japanese team how to shake hands properly. Too weak or too strong are unforced errors which impinge on building that all important first impression.   By the way, we probably only have a maximum of 7-10 seconds to get that first impression correct, so every second counts. We are all so quick to make snap judgments today, we just can't leave anything to chance. When you first see the client, make eye contact. Don't burn a hole in the recipient's head, but hold eye contact at the start for around 6 seconds and SMILE. This conveys consideration, reliability, confidence – all attributes we are looking for in our business partners. We combine this with the greeting, the usual pleasantries – “Thank you for seeing me”, “Thank you for your time today”. Now, what comes next is very important.   We segue into establishing rapport through initial light conversation. Japan has some fairly unremarkable evergreens in this regard – usually talking about the weather or about the distance you have travelled to get here, etc., etc. Don't go for these bromides. Try and differentiate yourself with something that is not anticipatory or standard.   Also be careful about complimenting a prominent feature of the lobby, office or the meeting room. I was in a brand new office the other day and they have a really impressive moss wall in the lobby. I will guarantee that my hosts have heard obvious comments about the moss wall from every visitor who has preceded me. “Wow, what an impressive moss wall ” or “Wow, that is a spectacular entry feature”. Boring!   Teach your salespeople to say something unexpected, intelligent and memorable. In this example, “Have you found that team motivation has lifted since you moved to this impressive new office?”, “Have you found your brand equity with your client's has improved since moving here?”. This get's the focus off you the salesperson and on to the client and their business. For example, if you are a training company like us, you definitely want to know how the team motivation is going, as you may have a solution for them.   Having a good stock of conversation starters should be basic for every salesperson. It might mean imparting some startling statistic that they may not have heard. For example, “I read recently that the number of young people aged 15-24 has halved over the last 20 years, are you concerned about future talent retention as demand exceeds supply?”.   We might educate the client with some industry information they may not be aware of but which would be deemed valuable. An example would be: “Dale Carnegie's recent research into Engagement amongst employees found three critical factors impacting motivation. The relationship with the immediate supervisor, the team's belief in the direction being set by senior management and the degree of pride in the organization – what are you seeing in your organisation around the area of engagement and motivation?”.   We face a lot of competition for the mindspace of our prospective clients. Busy people have a lot on their mind and we are an interruption in their day. Some of our prospective clients may be moving continuously from one meeting to another, so the attention span is shredded and the details begin to blur. They may have their eyes open but don't imagine their mind is in the room and focused on you. To counteract that possible external pre-occupation and to get them back in the room with you, use a question.   If I suddenly asked you, “what month were you born in?”, I will guarantee I have your 100% attention. So questions are powerful disrupters of pre-occupation and we should have stock of little beauties we can wheel out when needed. For example, “most people I talk to say Abenomics is not having any significant impact on their business as yet. Have you seen any benefits yet?”.   Another might be, “My clients' opinions seems to have changed – they are becoming more concerned about the possible future increase in consumption tax – is that an issue for your company?”. We want them talking about their business, because this is going to provide us with insights for a later line of questioning, as we try to uncover their performance gaps, needs, aspirations, etc.   The very first seconds of meeting someone are vital to building the right start to the business relationship. In modern commerce, we are all so judgmental and quick to make assumptions. Dressing the wrong way may even disqualify us before we get to open our mouths. Simple initial errors in posture, greetings and conversation can be our undoing. Let's get the sales team's basics right and make sure they totally nail that first impression.   So key action items from today:   Refine an image through dress, posture and eye contact that projects confidence Stock your opening comments such that they are really well differentiated from all of your competitors, who have swanned in ahead of you Provide useful business references to introduce something new to the client that gets the attention off you and on to the client's business   This is the rapport building stage of the sales process and it is both a science and art we need to perfect.

With China at risk of falling into a debt deflation loop, lessons from Japan's deflation journey could provide some insight.----- Transcript -----Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from the Morgan Stanley Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategy Team. Laura Wang: And I'm Laura Wang, Chief China Equity Strategist. Daniel Blake: And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss what lessons Japan's deflation journey can offer for China. It's Thursday, October 26th at 10 a.m. in Singapore and Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: So in the period from 1991 to 2001, known as Japan's lost decade, Japan suffered through a prolonged economic stagnation and price deflation. While the corporate sector stopped deleveraging in the early 2000's. It wasn't until the Abenomics program, introduced under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2013, that Japan emerged from deflation and started the process of a gradual recovery in corporate profitability. China's economic trajectory has been very different from Japan's over the last 30 years, but we now see some parallels emerging. Indeed, the risk of falling into a Japanese style stagnation is becoming more acute over the past year as a deep cyclical downturn in the property sector combines with the structural challenge that our economists call the 3D journey of debt, demographics and deflation. So, Laura, before we dig into the comparison between China and Japan's respective journeys to set the stage, can you give us a quick snapshot of where China's equity market is right now and what you expect for the rest of the year? Laura Wang: Sure, Daniel. China market has been through a quite volatile ten months so far this year with a very exciting start given the post COVID reopening. However, the strong macro momentum didn't sustain. Property sales is still falling somewhere between 30 to 50% each month on a year over year basis. And challenges from local government debt issue and early signs of deflationary pressure suggest that turn around for corporate earnings growth could still take longer to happen. We had downgraded China within the global emerging market context at the beginning of August, mainly out of these concerns, and we think more patience is needed at this point. We would like to see more meaningful easing measures to stimulate the demand and help reflate the economy, as well as clear a road map to address some of the structural issues, particularly around the local government debt problem. In contrast to China, Japan's equity market is very strong right now, and Morgan Stanley's outlook continues to be bullish from here. So, Daniel, why is it valuable to compare Japan's deflationary journey since the 1990s and China's recent challenges? What are some of the bigger similarities? Daniel Blake: I think we'll come back to the 3D's. So on the first to them, on debt we do have China's aggregate total debt around 290% of GDP. So that compares with Japan, which was about 265% of GDP back in 1990. So this is similar in the sense that we do have this aggregate debt burden sitting and needs to be managed. Secondly, on demographics, we've got a long expected but now very evident downturn in the share of the labor force that is in working age and an outright decline in working age population in China. And this is going to be a factor for many years ahead. China's birth rate or total number of births is looking to come down to around 8 million this year, compared with 28 million in 1990. And then a third would be deflation. And so we are seeing this broaden out in China, particularly the aggregate GDP level. So in Japan's case, that deflation was mainly around asset price bubbles. In China's case, we're seeing this more broadly with excess capacity in a number of industrial sectors, including new economy sectors. And then this one 4th D which is similar in both Japan's case and China now, and that's the globalization or de-risking of supply chains, as you prefer. When we're looking at this in Japan's case, Japan did face a more hostile trade environment in the late 1980s, particularly with protectionism coming through from the US. And we've seen that play out in the multipolar world for China. So a number of similarities which we can group under 4D's here. Laura Wang: And what are some of the key differences between Japan/China? Daniel Blake: So the first key difference is we think the asset price bubble was more extreme in Japan. Secondly, in China, most of the debt is held by local governments and state owned enterprises rather than the private corporate sector. And thirdly, China is at a lower stage of development than Japan in terms of per capita incomes and the potential for underlying growth. So, Laura, when you're looking ahead, what would you like to see from Chinese policymakers here, both in the near term as well as the longer term? Laura Wang: As far as what we can observe, Chinese policymakers has already started to roll out a suite of measures on the fronts of capital markets, monetary and fiscal policy side over the past 12 months. And we do expect more to come. Particularly on the capital market reform side, there are additional efforts that we think policymakers can help enforce. In our view, those actions could include capital market restructuring, funds flow and liquidity support, as well as further efforts encouraging enhancement of shareholder returns. To be more specific, for example, introducing more benchmark indices with a focus on corporate governance and shareholder returns, further tightening and enforcing the listing rules for public companies, m ore incentives for long term institutional participation, improving capital flow management for foreign investors, and implementing incentives to encourage dividend payouts and share buybacks. Those could all work quite well. Regulatory and even legislative support to help implement these measures would be extremely crucial. Daniel Blake: And what is your outlook for China's medium to long term return on equity path from here? And what are the key catalysts you're watching for that? Laura Wang: Given some of the structure challenges we discussed earlier, we do see a much wider forked path for China's long term growth ROE trajectory. We see MSCI China's long term ROE stabilizing at around 11% in the next 5 to 7 years in our base case. This means there should still be up to around two percentage point of recovery upside from the current levels, thanks to a combination of corporate self-help, the product cycle, policy support from the top and the low base effect. However, further upside above 11% will require a significant reflationary effort from the policymakers, both short term cyclical and long term structural, in combination with a more favorable geopolitical environment. Therefore, we believe prompt and forceful actions from policymakers to stabilize the economy to avoid more permanent negative impact on corporate and consumer behaviors are absolutely needed at this point. Now, let me turn this back to you, Daniel. What is your outlook for Japan's return on equity journey from here, and are there any risks to your bullish view? Daniel Blake: So we have seen Japan looking back from 2013 to now move from below book value in terms of aggregate valuations and a return on equity of just 4%, so much lower than even your bear case. So it's moved up from that level to 9% currently and we're seeing valuations moving up accordingly. We think that's further to go and we think Japan can actually reach 12% sustainable return on equity by 2025 and that's helped by return of nominal GDP growth in Japan and further implementation of governance improvements at the corporate level. So in terms of the risks, I think they are primarily external. We do see Japan's domestic economy in a pretty good place. We think BOJ can exit yield curve control and negative rates without a major shock. So externally we are watching China's risks of moving into a debt deflation loop, as we're discussing here, but also the potential impacts if the US or a global recession were to play out. So clearly we're watching very closely the Fed's efforts and global central bank efforts to achieve a soft landing here. Daniel Blake: So, Laura, thanks for taking the time to talk. Laura Wang: Sure. It's been great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Today's guest was a key player on the George Soros team, who in 1992 helped the Quantum Fund make $1bn, shorting sterling ahead of the UK's withdrawal from the ERM. As Soros's CIO, he was also dubbed ‘The Man Who Broke the Bank of Japan' by the Wall Street Journal after making approximately $3.5bn on the Abenomics trade from 2012-2015.  Scott is widely acknowledged to be one of the world's most highly respected macro hedge fund managers, and currently runs Key Square Capital Management. He has also taught financial history at Yale and is a prominent philanthropist. In this episode, Scott explains the key ingredients in being a macro manager. He charts his journey, working with legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros. He opines on a range of key investment themes, including his thoughts on de-dollarisation, debt, commodities, the Ukraine rebuild, and AI. He also shares his analysis of the fast-evolving markets in both China and Japan. Scott goes on to discuss risk, when and how he sizes positions, signposts that influence conviction, and dealing with information overload. A tour de force! Sign up to our Newsletter |  Follow us on LinkedIn |  Watch us on YouTube The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, Bremont Watches, LiveTrade and IFM Investors. 

------------------------------- 強化英語課程資訊 ------------------------------- 「社會人核心英語」有聲書課程連結：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/554esm ------------------------------- 15Mins.Today 相關連結 ------------------------------- 歡迎針對這一集留言你的想法： 留言連結 官方網站：www.15mins.today 加入Clubhouse直播室：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/46hm8k 訂閱YouTube頻道：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/3rhuuy 主題投稿/意見回覆 : ask15mins@gmail.com 商業合作/贊助來信：15minstoday@gmail.com ------------------------------- 以下有參考文字稿～ 各播放器有不同字數限制，完整文稿可到官網搜尋 ------------------------------- Topic: JR East to raise fares by 10 yen to improve disabled accessibility East Japan Railway Co. (JR East) will become the first railway operator to hike passenger fares and use the funds to improve accessibility for the disabled. 東日本旅客鐵道公司（JR東日本）將成為第一家調漲客運票價，並將這筆資金用來改善供殘障人士使用的無障礙設施的鐵道業者。 The plan is to tack on 10 yen (8 cents) to a ticket for JR East's 16 major lines, including the Yamanote, Chuo and Keihin-Tohoku lines. The increase will go into effect from spring 2023. 該計畫是要將包括山手線、中央線與京濱東北線等16條JR東日本主要路線的票價調漲10日圓（8美分）。新的票價將自2023年春天起生效。 The transport ministry in December 2021 created a new system of adding fares to a ticket to pay for the installation of platform safety doors and elevators at train stations. （日本）國土交通省在2021年12月創設一項新制度，將調漲的票價金額用來支付在車站設置月台安全門與電梯的費用。 Ministry officials said JR East is the first railway company to announce a specific plan. 國土交通省官員說，JR東日本是第一個（因應該制度）宣布明確計畫的鐵道業者。 Next Article Topic: Tasty TV: Japanese professor creates flavorful screen 美味的電視：日本教授發明有滋味的螢幕 Japan's Meiji University professor Homei Miyashita has developed a prototype lickable TV screen that can imitate food flavors, another step towards creating a multi-sensory viewing experience. 日本明治大學教授宮下芳明發明出一款可舔式原型電視螢幕，具有模仿食物味道的功能，朝創造多感官收視體驗邁進另一步。 The device, called Taste the TV (TTTV), uses a carousel of 10 flavor canisters that spray in combination to create the taste of a particular food. The flavor sample then rolls on hygienic film over a flat TV screen for the viewer to try. 這個名為「品嚐電視」的裝置內部設置裝有10種口味的罐子，可噴出調製成特定食物的味道，再輸送到平面電視螢幕的衛生薄膜上，讓觀看者品嚐。 In the COVID-19 era, this kind of technology can enhance the way people connect and interact with the outside world, said Miyashita. 宮下說，在新冠肺炎流行時期，這樣的科技可改善人們與外界連結和互動的方式。 "The goal is to make it possible for people to have the experience of something like eating at a restaurant on the other side of the world, even while staying at home," he said. A commercial version would cost about 100,000 yen to make. 他說：「目標是讓人們即使待在家，也能擁有類似於在世界另一端上餐廳吃飯的體驗。」商業機製作成本約為10萬日圓（約2萬4300台幣）。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510384 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510139 Next Article Topic: Shinzo Abe - Japan's longest-serving prime minister Shinzo Abe smashed records as Japan's longest-serving prime minister, championing ambitious economic reform and forging key diplomatic relationships while weathering scandals. 安倍晉三打破了日本首相任期的最長紀錄，他支持雄心勃勃的經濟改革，並在經歷醜聞的同時建立了關鍵的外交關係。 Nearly two years after poor health forced him to leave office, the 67-year-old was shot during a campaign event in the western region of Nara on Friday last week. 在他因健康狀況不佳而被迫下台後兩年，六十七歲的他上週五在奈良西部地區一場競選活動中被槍殺。 Abe was a sprightly 52 when he first became prime minister in 2006, the youngest person to occupy the job in the postwar era. 安倍在二○○六年首次擔任首相時年僅五十二歲，是戰後日本最年輕的首相。 He was seen as a symbol of change and youth, but also brought the pedigree of a third-generation politician groomed from birth by an elite, conservative family. Abe's first term was turbulent, plagued by scandals and discord, and capped by an abrupt resignation. 他被視為變革與年輕的象徵，但他也是出身精英保守家庭的政治家族第三代。 安倍的第一個任期動盪不安，飽受醜聞與不和的紛擾，並以突然辭職告終。 - They called it ‘Abenomics' - He ran again, and Japan's revolving prime ministerial door brought him back to office in 2012. It ended a turbulent period in which prime ministers sometimes changed at a rate of one a year. With Japan still staggering from the effects of the 2011 tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster at Fukushima — and a brief opposition government lashed for flip-flopping and incompetence — Abe offered a seemingly safe pair of hands. 他再次參選，日本的首相旋轉門讓他在二○一二年再度擔任首相。 這終結了日本首相更替頻繁（有時只做了一年便下台）的動盪時期。 當時日本仍因二○一一年海嘯及之後福島核災的影響而步履蹣跚，以及短暫執政、被批評為政策出爾反爾及無能的反對黨政府——在此情況下，安倍看來是穩健的選擇。 And he had a plan: Abenomics. The scheme to revive Japan's economy — the world's third-biggest, but more than two decades into stagnation — involved vast government spending, massive monetary easing and cutting red tape. Abe also sought to boost the country's flagging birth rate by making workplaces more friendly to parents, particularly mothers. 而且他有個計畫：「安倍經濟學」。 重振日本——這世界第三大經濟體，但已陷入停滯二十多年——經濟的計畫，有賴大量政府支出、大規模貨幣寬鬆，以及削減繁文縟節。 He pushed through controversial consumption tax hikes to help finance nurseries and plug gaps in Japan's overstretched social security system. While there was some progress with reform, the economy's bigger structural problems remained. Deflation proved stubborn and the economy was in recession even before the coronavirus struck in 2020. Abe's star waned further during the pandemic, with his approach criticized as confused and slow, driving his approval ratings down to some of the lowest of his tenure. 安倍還試圖營造對父母，尤其是對母親更友善的工作環境，來提高日本不斷下降的出生率。 他推動調高消費稅這具爭議性的政策，以資助托兒所並補強日本負擔過重的社會福利系統。 雖然改革取得了一些進展，但更大的經濟結構性問題依然存在。 事實證明，通貨緊縮很頑強，甚至在二○二○年冠狀病毒來襲之前，經濟就已陷入衰退。 安倍的光環在疫情期間變得更加黯淡，他的做法被批評為混亂及緩慢，讓他的支持率降至任期內最低。 - Political storms - - 政治風暴 - On the international stage, Abe took a hard line on North Korea, but sought a peacemaker role between the US and Iran. He prioritized a close personal relationship with Donald Trump in a bid to protect Japan's key alliance from the then-US president's “America First” mantra, and tried to mend ties with Russia and China. 在國際舞台上，安倍對北韓採取強硬立場，但又想在美國和伊朗之間扮演和平推手的角色。 他優先考慮跟美國總統唐納‧川普建立密切的個人關係，以保護日本的關鍵同盟免受當時川普口號「美國優先」的影響，並試圖修補與俄國及中國的關係。 But the results were mixed: Trump remained eager to force Japan to pay more for US troops stationed in the country, a deal with Russia on disputed northern islands stayed elusive, and a plan to invite Xi Jinping for a state visit fell by the wayside. Abe also pursued a hard line with South Korea over unresolved wartime disputes and continued to float plans to revise Japan's pacifist constitution. 但結果好壞參半：川普仍急於迫使日本為駐紮在日本的美軍支付更多費用，日本與俄國對北部島嶼主權之糾紛仍難以達成協議，邀請習近平進行國事訪問的計畫也被擱置。 日本與南韓間懸而未決的戰時爭端，安倍也採強硬立場，並繼續提出修改日本和平憲法的計畫。 Throughout his tenure, he weathered political storms including cronyism allegations that dented approval ratings but did little to affect his power, in part thanks to the weakness of the opposition. Abe had been due to stay on until late 2021, giving him an opportunity to see out one final event in his historic tenure — the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games.But in a shock announcement, he stepped down in August 2020, with a recurrence of ulcerative colitis ending his second term, too. 在他整個任期內，他經受住了政治風暴，包括裙帶關係的指控，這些指控讓他的支持率降低，但對他的權力幾乎沒有影響，部分原因是反對派的軟弱。安倍原定留任至二○二一年底，讓他有機會在史上最長任期內看見最後一件大事——延期的二○二○年東京奧運。 然而，他令人震驚地宣布在二○二○年八月下台，潰瘍性結腸炎的復發也結束了他的第二個任期。Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2022/07/12/2003781569 Next Article Topic: Tokyo June heatwave worst since 1875 as power supply creaks under strain Japan baked under scorching temperatures for a fourth successive day on Tuesday, as the capital's heat broke nearly 150-year-old records for June and authorities warned power supply remained tight enough to raise the spectre of cuts. 日本週二連續第4天受炙熱高溫所苦，首善之地打破將近150年來的6月高溫紀錄，政府警告電力供應依然吃緊，增加斷電之虞。 Temperatures in Tokyo hit 35.1 C by 1 p.m local time on Tuesday. For a second day, authorities asked consumers in the Tokyo area to conserve electricity to avoid a looming power cut - but in moderation. 東京氣溫在週二下午1點達到攝氏35.1度。政府連續第二天要求東京地區用戶節約用電—但是適度地—以避免可能的斷電。 "Apparently there are some elderly people who have turned off their air conditioners because we are asking people to save energy, but please - it's this hot - don't hesitate about cooling off," trade and industry minister Koichi Hagiuda told a news conference. 經濟產業大臣萩生田光一在記者會上說，「顯然有一些老人因為我們要求民眾節約能源而關掉空調，但是，拜託，天氣這麼熱，請不要猶豫涼快一下」。 Next Article Topic: Penguins at a Japanese aquarium are being fed cheaper fish - and they aren't happy 日本水族館的企鵝被餵食較便宜的魚—牠們不開心 An aquarium employee waves a mackerel near a penguin － but there's no reaction. When she moves the fish closer to its beak, the penguin turns away haughtily. An otter sniffs the fish, then runs away. 一名水族館員工拿著鯖魚在一隻企鵝身邊揮舞，但是企鵝沒反應。當她把魚靠近企鵝嘴邊，這隻企鵝倨傲地別過頭。一隻水獺聞了聞這隻鯖魚，然後游走。 Before, the Hakone-en Aquarium offered penguins and otters "aji," or Japanese horse mackerel, which the animals readily ate. 箱根園水族館之前給企鵝和水獺吃日本竹筴魚，牠們很樂意吃。 The price of aji has increased by 20% to 30% since last year, the aquarium said. So to cut costs, in May the aquarium switched to a cheaper alternative － "saba," or mackerel. 水族館說，自去年以來，竹夾魚價格已經上漲20%到30%。因此，為了削減成本，館方五月改用較便宜的替代品：鯖魚。 It has not been well received. The aquarium says penguins and otters have their preferred type of fish and the aquarium tries its best to accommodate their needs. 但是此舉並不很受到歡迎。水族館說，企鵝和水獺都有牠們偏好的魚種，館方設法盡量滿足他們的需要。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1530996 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1532193

With positive GDP growth and increasing revenues, Japan equities are becoming a preferred market globally. ----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Daniel Blake: And I'm Daniel Blake, Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist. Chetan Ahya: Over the last two days in this special three part series on Japan, we discussed a constructive outlook for Japan's economy and the various structural reforms it's undergoing. Today in this final episode focused on Japan, we'll talk about the key investment implications of these macro trends. It's Friday, July 21st at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong and Singapore. Chetan Ahya: Dan, you've been highlighting Japanese equities as our most preferred asset within the region and globally. Your bullish view is based on three powerful drivers of outperformance coming together, namely macro, micro and multipolar world. Starting with the macro, our economists expect an uplift in nominal GDP growth trend, how does this benefit Japanese equities? Daniel Blake: So we see this being another era for the Japanese market, having first exited deflation in 2013 with the initial Abenomics program, but now moving into positive nominal GDP growth from 2023 onwards. It's hugely important for companies who have been hemmed in with an inability to lift prices and hence they have been unable or unwilling to lift base wages or dividend levels. So this new pricing flexibility in top line growth supports the equity market in five key ways. First, we're going to see faster revenue growth. Second, we think this will mean wider operating profit margins given fixed cost leverage will now be working in favor of the bottom line. Third, financial sector earnings have been repressed by ongoing Bank of Japan policy, but a gradual process of normalization should help release the earnings power of Japanese financials. Fourth, domestic portfolios are highly risk averse and focused on cash and deposits. We think there will be some ongoing shift towards higher return assets, including equities. And finally, we think valuations for the equity market can continue to trend higher on convergence with global norms. Chetan Ahya: And on micro front, we've been discussing about the improvement in corporate governance for almost a decade now. What's changed this year? Daniel Blake: Yes, the environment has been changing for the better part of a decade, really since the introduction of the corporate governance and stewardship codes back in 2015 and 16. We are seeing progressive improvement with record levels of investor activism and engagement, and we're seeing signs that management teams are taking up the challenge of improving profitability with record buybacks and record levels of dividend payout ratios. That said, the progress has been patchy at times and coming into this year, 50% of equity market constituents were still trading below book value. So what's changed this year is in this backdrop of improving corporate governance we've had new calls from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for companies trading below book value to explore ways to meet their cost of capital and lift valuations. We think that additional support that will come through as companies look to engage with investors and unlock value will help to boost Japan's sustainable return on equity to 11 to 12%, that compares with Japan's 15 year average of just 4% before the Abenomics program took hold. And it would bring it up more consistent with global averages. Chetan Ahya: Dan, one of the big themes Morgan Stanley research is exploring deeply this year is the transition from a globalized or multipolar world. How does this emergence of multipolar world impact Japan and its equity markets in particular? Daniel Blake: Thanks, Chetan. And as we're thinking about a multipolar world transition, we think there are two scenarios for global supply chains and interdependencies. One is a de-risking process, which is our base case, where supply chains are strengthened, diversified, and we see ongoing policy support for investment into emerging industries. The second scenario, which we hope to avoid, is one of decoupling. But if we focus on the de-risking scenario, we think Japanese companies will benefit from that trend for two reasons. One, we have a high allocation in the Japanese market of companies skewed towards industrial automation, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, precision instruments, specialty chemicals, all of the inputs for supply chain diversification that are crucially in demand in this de-risking process. And the second reason is investor portfolios are also being diversified, and Japan's deep capital markets have been in a good position to absorb this shift. Chetan Ahya: So taking it together, where does this leave your view on Japan equities and what are the risks to your call? Daniel Blake: So overall, we see Japanese equities as our most preferred market globally with another 7% upside to our base case for the TOPIX index. As a result of the three drivers we'll discuss today, we're above consensus on earnings forecasts, seeing 10% growth in 2023 and 2024. Investors are still underweight on Japanese equities and we expect ongoing inflows over the coming quarters. The most acute risk to the call is if we end up in a global recession or if in Japan, core inflation overshoots 2% sustainably, forcing a tightening cycle in Japanese yen appreciation. We think the underlying environment will manage to mitigate these risks more than they have in the past, but that remains a cyclical risk for the Japanese equity outlook. Chetan Ahya: Dan, thank you for taking the time to talk. Daniel Blake: Great speaking with Chetan. Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening to our special three part series on Japan. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

The first of our three-part series on the Japanese economy dives into the three key factors that have triggered a recent surge in interest from investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'm kicking off a special three part episode on our outlook for Japan. Today I'll be discussing our view on the Japanese economy. It's Wednesday, July 19th at 9am in Hong Kong. As you may have seen, Japan's economy and financial markets have attracted outsized investor interest this year. We at Morgan Stanley Research have had a constructive view on the macro and markets outlook for some time, based on three pillars: A decisive shift away from deflation, structural macro reforms coupled with the improved corporate governance on the macro front and return on equity for the corporate sector. Let's start with the macro outlook. From my vantage point, the single most important factor that defines the Japan narrative is inflation. Between 1993 and 2012, the Japan economy was trapped in deflation, with headline inflation hovering around 0%. The pursuit of Abenomics from 2013 onwards brought about a transition from deflation to low-flation and inflation managed to move a tad bit higher to an average of 0.5% from 2013 to 2019. In this cycle, we are seeing yet another shift in which Japan is decisively exiting deflation. Indeed, we see Japan transitioning into moderate inflation territory, where inflation averages 1 to 1.5% over the medium term. How is this inflation outcome achieved? Since the early 1990's, Japan has experienced monetary easing and fiscal easing, but the two have never really come together in a coordinated fashion, and in fact at times have neutralized each other. This started to change in 2013, when fiscal easing was combined with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, which we think was critical to initial exit from deflation. In this cycle, we finally saw wage growth rising to a multi-year high, which in our view is the final key ingredient that will sustain inflation in the range of 1 to 1 and a half percent. Moreover, we don't expect a premature withdrawal of accommodative macro policies. Against this backdrop, we believe inflation expectation will be re-anchored to a higher level than before. Why is the liftoff of inflation so important? Well, moderate inflation is what makes the economic machine work. If consumers expect deflation or low-flation, they will be incentivized to put off their spending plans. For the corporate sector, the resulting high level of real interest rates will not catalyze new investment. This whole situation changes when moderate inflation takes hold and inflation expectations shift. Animal spirits come back to life, and that is at the heart of why we are bullish on Japan. In the next episode, we are going to continue this conversation with our two leading minds on Japan, our Chief Japan Economist Takashi Yamaguchi, and Japan Senior Advisor Robert Feldman. The three of us will dive into the implications of the shift in Japan's nominal GDP path, the outlook for BOJ's policy, as well as the outlook for structural reforms. And to wrap up the series, I'll speak with our Equity Strategist Daniel Blake about our market outlook and what investors should focus on. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Nach der Flutkatastrophe 2011 in Japan sah es nicht gut für die Wirtschaft aus. Zerstörungen, ein starker Yen und hohe Energiepreise machten der Bevölkerung und den Unternehmen das Leben schwer. Mit dem Regierungsantritt Shinzo Abes sollte sich einiges ändern. Mit seinem Reformpaket - den 3 Pfeilen - will er das Land nachhaltig verbessern. Doch bringen die Maßnahmen, was sie versprechen?

A japán jegybank egészen másképpen reagál a globális inflációs válságra. Kitartanak amellett, hogy nem emelnek kamatot, nem állítanak elő mesterségesen recessziót. Azaz folytatják az Abenomics-ot, Sinzo Abe nélkül, egyelőre sikerrel. Mit lehet tőlük tanulni? Kántor Endre és Pogi beszélgetése. Az első rész a 113. epizódban hallható.

Next month the leadership of the Bank of Japan will change hands, so what policy shifts might be in store and what does this imply for markets?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake from Morgan Stanley's Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss Japanese equity markets and the changing of the guard at the Bank of Japan. It's Thursday, February 16th at 8 a.m. in Singapore. March the 10th will mark the end of an era for Japan, with Haruhiko Kuroda completing his final meeting at the helm of the Bank of Japan. Alongside the late Shinzo Abe, Kuroda-san has been instrumental in creating and implementing the famous Abenomics program over the last decade, and we think he's been successful in bringing Japan out of its long running deflationary stance. And just this week we've had the nomination of his replacement, Kazuo Ueda, a well-respected University of Tokyo professor and former Bank of Japan board member. He may not be a household name outside of the economics community, but his central bank and policy bloodlines run deep, having studied a Ph.D. at MIT alongside former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and under the tutelage of Stanley Fischer, former Bank of Israel governor and vice Fed chair. So as we see a generational handover at the BoJ, what do we expect next and what does it imply for equity markets? Firstly, Japan has made a lot of progress, but we don't think the mission has been fully accomplished on the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. Current inflation is being driven by cost pressures and while wage growth is picking up, we don't think wages will move up to the levels needed to see inflation at 2% being sustained. So we don't expect the BoJ under Ueda-san to embark on a tightening cycle the way we have seen for the Fed and the ECB. However, we can look for some change and in particular we think Ueda-san will look to resolve some of the market dysfunction associated with the policy of yield curve control. This is where the BoJ looks to cap bond yields at the ten year maturity, around a target of 0%. We expect he'll exit this policy of yield curve control by summer 2023, allowing the curve to steepen. And thirdly, we'll be watching closely his perspective on negative interest rate policy as we weigh up the costs and benefits and the transmission of negative rates into the real economy, albeit at the cost of profitability impacts for the banking sector. His testimony before the DIT on February 24th and his approach to negative interest rates under his governorship will be important to watch. We expect negative interest rate policy to be dropped, but not until 2024 in our base case, but this remains a key debate. So in terms of implications, this is more evolution than revolution for macro policy in Japan. And importantly, we see fiscal policy remaining supportive as the program of new capitalism and Ueda-san looks to strengthen social safety nets and double defense spending from 1% of GDP. Secondly, for equity markets, we see a resilient but still range bound outlook for the benchmark TOPIX Index. Our base case target of 2020 for December 2023 implies it doesn't quite break the top of its three year trading range, but remains well supported. Finally, at a sector level, banks and insurers may benefit from a tilting policy away from yield curve control. Again, especially if followed by a move back to zero rates from negative rate policy. In summary, we'll be watching for any shifts in the BoJ reaction function under the new leadership of Kazuo Ueda, but we do not expect a macro shock to asset markets. Instead, some micro adjustment in the yield curve control policy, and potentially negative interest rates, could help the sustainability of very low interest rates in Japan. Thanks for listening and if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dollar/Yen has been trading around 130, and Yen rate volatility has eased with the BoJ's December surprise a thing of the past after the bank held the line in January. All eyes are on potential nominees for BoJ leadership. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses what to watch during the fiscal year 2023 ordinary Diet session, the nomination process for the next BoJ governor and deputy governors, the shift from Abenomics to the Kishida Administration's New Style of Capitalism, and implications for markets. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Abenomics' twilight.

*) Kremlin admits call-up 'errors' but no decision to close border The Kremlin has admitted errors during the mobilisation of reservists for the military action in Ukraine and said no decision has been taken to close Russia's borders. It has also admitted that there have been cases when the mobilisation decree was violated, but added that the instances of non-compliance were decreasing. President Vladimir Putin last week announced the call-up of thousands of reservists for the conflict in Ukraine, sparking protests and a rush among Russian men for the borders. *) Greek military buildup: Türkiye won't fail to defend itself, Erdogan vows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has slammed Greece over its latest provocations, saying his country will not fail to defend its rights and interests. Erdogan's remarks came after Turkish army drones recorded Greek deployment of armoured vehicles on two Aegean islands — which is in violation of international law. Türkiye has summoned the Greek ambassador and called for an end to violations on the Aegean islands and restoring their non-military status, according to the Foreign Ministry. *) Russia school shooting kills 15, including children At least 15 people, including 11 children, have been killed after a man opened fire at his former school in central Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the "inhuman terrorist attack" in the city of Izhevsk (E-zeevsk), the Kremlin said. According to investigators, the attacker — who killed himself — "was wearing a black top with Nazi symbols and a balaclava" when his body was discovered. *) Japan holds controversial state funeral for assassinated Shinzo Abe Japan has held a controversial state funeral for assassinated former prime minister Shinzo Abe, with thousands of mourners, including dignitaries, attending the ceremony in Tokyo. Gatherers offered flowers and prayers in honour of Abe, even as the decision to hold a state funeral has sparked protests due to his policies panned by critics and the costs of the ceremony. Abe was Japan's longest-serving prime minister known for cultivating international alliances and his "Abenomics" economic strategy. And finally… *) NASA strikes asteroid in key test of planetary defence A NASA spaceship has struck an asteroid seven million miles away in order to deflect its orbit, succeeding in a historic test of preventing a celestial object from devastating life on Earth. The director of NASA's planetary science division hailed a new era after its Double Asteroid Redirection Test impactor hit its target, a 530-foot space rock, at 2314 GMT on Monday. To be sure, the asteroid posed no threat to Earth, but NASA has deemed the experiment important to carry out before an actual need is discovered.

Le Japon a organisé ce mardi des obsèques nationales pour l'ancien Premier ministre, Shinzo Abe, assassiné le 8 juillet dernier. Une cérémonie controversée, notamment à cause de son coût : près de 12 millions d'euros. Et cela alors même que la dette publique japonaise explose. Une dette qui est aussi le résultat de la politique économique initiée par l'ancien l'ancien chef du gouvernement : les "Abenomics". Quel bilan en tirer ? Et quels défis pour l'économie japonaise ? Décryptage.

Topic: JR East to raise fares by 10 yen to improve disabled accessibility East Japan Railway Co. (JR East) will become the first railway operator to hike passenger fares and use the funds to improve accessibility for the disabled. 東日本旅客鐵道公司（JR東日本）將成為第一家調漲客運票價，並將這筆資金用來改善供殘障人士使用的無障礙設施的鐵道業者。 The plan is to tack on 10 yen (8 cents) to a ticket for JR East's 16 major lines, including the Yamanote, Chuo and Keihin-Tohoku lines. The increase will go into effect from spring 2023. 該計畫是要將包括山手線、中央線與京濱東北線等16條JR東日本主要路線的票價調漲10日圓（8美分）。新的票價將自2023年春天起生效。 The transport ministry in December 2021 created a new system of adding fares to a ticket to pay for the installation of platform safety doors and elevators at train stations. （日本）國土交通省在2021年12月創設一項新制度，將調漲的票價金額用來支付在車站設置月台安全門與電梯的費用。 Ministry officials said JR East is the first railway company to announce a specific plan. 國土交通省官員說，JR東日本是第一個（因應該制度）宣布明確計畫的鐵道業者。 Next Article Topic: Tasty TV: Japanese professor creates flavorful screen 美味的電視：日本教授發明有滋味的螢幕 Japan's Meiji University professor Homei Miyashita has developed a prototype lickable TV screen that can imitate food flavors, another step towards creating a multi-sensory viewing experience. 日本明治大學教授宮下芳明發明出一款可舔式原型電視螢幕，具有模仿食物味道的功能，朝創造多感官收視體驗邁進另一步。 The device, called Taste the TV (TTTV), uses a carousel of 10 flavor canisters that spray in combination to create the taste of a particular food. The flavor sample then rolls on hygienic film over a flat TV screen for the viewer to try. 這個名為「品嚐電視」的裝置內部設置裝有10種口味的罐子，可噴出調製成特定食物的味道，再輸送到平面電視螢幕的衛生薄膜上，讓觀看者品嚐。 In the COVID-19 era, this kind of technology can enhance the way people connect and interact with the outside world, said Miyashita. 宮下說，在新冠肺炎流行時期，這樣的科技可改善人們與外界連結和互動的方式。 "The goal is to make it possible for people to have the experience of something like eating at a restaurant on the other side of the world, even while staying at home," he said. A commercial version would cost about 100,000 yen to make. 他說：「目標是讓人們即使待在家，也能擁有類似於在世界另一端上餐廳吃飯的體驗。」商業機製作成本約為10萬日圓（約2萬4300台幣）。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510384 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510139 Next Article Topic: Shinzo Abe - Japan's longest-serving prime minister Shinzo Abe smashed records as Japan's longest-serving prime minister, championing ambitious economic reform and forging key diplomatic relationships while weathering scandals. 安倍晉三打破了日本首相任期的最長紀錄，他支持雄心勃勃的經濟改革，並在經歷醜聞的同時建立了關鍵的外交關係。 Nearly two years after poor health forced him to leave office, the 67-year-old was shot during a campaign event in the western region of Nara on Friday last week. 在他因健康狀況不佳而被迫下台後兩年，六十七歲的他上週五在奈良西部地區一場競選活動中被槍殺。 Abe was a sprightly 52 when he first became prime minister in 2006, the youngest person to occupy the job in the postwar era. 安倍在二○○六年首次擔任首相時年僅五十二歲，是戰後日本最年輕的首相。 He was seen as a symbol of change and youth, but also brought the pedigree of a third-generation politician groomed from birth by an elite, conservative family. Abe's first term was turbulent, plagued by scandals and discord, and capped by an abrupt resignation. 他被視為變革與年輕的象徵，但他也是出身精英保守家庭的政治家族第三代。 安倍的第一個任期動盪不安，飽受醜聞與不和的紛擾，並以突然辭職告終。 - They called it ‘Abenomics' - He ran again, and Japan's revolving prime ministerial door brought him back to office in 2012. It ended a turbulent period in which prime ministers sometimes changed at a rate of one a year. With Japan still staggering from the effects of the 2011 tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster at Fukushima — and a brief opposition government lashed for flip-flopping and incompetence — Abe offered a seemingly safe pair of hands. 他再次參選，日本的首相旋轉門讓他在二○一二年再度擔任首相。 這終結了日本首相更替頻繁（有時只做了一年便下台）的動盪時期。 當時日本仍因二○一一年海嘯及之後福島核災的影響而步履蹣跚，以及短暫執政、被批評為政策出爾反爾及無能的反對黨政府——在此情況下，安倍看來是穩健的選擇。 And he had a plan: Abenomics. The scheme to revive Japan's economy — the world's third-biggest, but more than two decades into stagnation — involved vast government spending, massive monetary easing and cutting red tape. Abe also sought to boost the country's flagging birth rate by making workplaces more friendly to parents, particularly mothers. 而且他有個計畫：「安倍經濟學」。 重振日本——這世界第三大經濟體，但已陷入停滯二十多年——經濟的計畫，有賴大量政府支出、大規模貨幣寬鬆，以及削減繁文縟節。 He pushed through controversial consumption tax hikes to help finance nurseries and plug gaps in Japan's overstretched social security system. While there was some progress with reform, the economy's bigger structural problems remained. Deflation proved stubborn and the economy was in recession even before the coronavirus struck in 2020. Abe's star waned further during the pandemic, with his approach criticized as confused and slow, driving his approval ratings down to some of the lowest of his tenure. 安倍還試圖營造對父母，尤其是對母親更友善的工作環境，來提高日本不斷下降的出生率。 他推動調高消費稅這具爭議性的政策，以資助托兒所並補強日本負擔過重的社會福利系統。 雖然改革取得了一些進展，但更大的經濟結構性問題依然存在。 事實證明，通貨緊縮很頑強，甚至在二○二○年冠狀病毒來襲之前，經濟就已陷入衰退。 安倍的光環在疫情期間變得更加黯淡，他的做法被批評為混亂及緩慢，讓他的支持率降至任期內最低。 - Political storms - - 政治風暴 - On the international stage, Abe took a hard line on North Korea, but sought a peacemaker role between the US and Iran. He prioritized a close personal relationship with Donald Trump in a bid to protect Japan's key alliance from the then-US president's “America First” mantra, and tried to mend ties with Russia and China. 在國際舞台上，安倍對北韓採取強硬立場，但又想在美國和伊朗之間扮演和平推手的角色。 他優先考慮跟美國總統唐納‧川普建立密切的個人關係，以保護日本的關鍵同盟免受當時川普口號「美國優先」的影響，並試圖修補與俄國及中國的關係。 But the results were mixed: Trump remained eager to force Japan to pay more for US troops stationed in the country, a deal with Russia on disputed northern islands stayed elusive, and a plan to invite Xi Jinping for a state visit fell by the wayside. Abe also pursued a hard line with South Korea over unresolved wartime disputes and continued to float plans to revise Japan's pacifist constitution. 但結果好壞參半：川普仍急於迫使日本為駐紮在日本的美軍支付更多費用，日本與俄國對北部島嶼主權之糾紛仍難以達成協議，邀請習近平進行國事訪問的計畫也被擱置。 日本與南韓間懸而未決的戰時爭端，安倍也採強硬立場，並繼續提出修改日本和平憲法的計畫。 Throughout his tenure, he weathered political storms including cronyism allegations that dented approval ratings but did little to affect his power, in part thanks to the weakness of the opposition. Abe had been due to stay on until late 2021, giving him an opportunity to see out one final event in his historic tenure — the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games.But in a shock announcement, he stepped down in August 2020, with a recurrence of ulcerative colitis ending his second term, too. 在他整個任期內，他經受住了政治風暴，包括裙帶關係的指控，這些指控讓他的支持率降低，但對他的權力幾乎沒有影響，部分原因是反對派的軟弱。安倍原定留任至二○二一年底，讓他有機會在史上最長任期內看見最後一件大事——延期的二○二○年東京奧運。 然而，他令人震驚地宣布在二○二○年八月下台，潰瘍性結腸炎的復發也結束了他的第二個任期。Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2022/07/12/2003781569 Next Article Topic: Tokyo June heatwave worst since 1875 as power supply creaks under strain Japan baked under scorching temperatures for a fourth successive day on Tuesday, as the capital's heat broke nearly 150-year-old records for June and authorities warned power supply remained tight enough to raise the spectre of cuts. 日本週二連續第4天受炙熱高溫所苦，首善之地打破將近150年來的6月高溫紀錄，政府警告電力供應依然吃緊，增加斷電之虞。 Temperatures in Tokyo hit 35.1 C by 1 p.m local time on Tuesday. For a second day, authorities asked consumers in the Tokyo area to conserve electricity to avoid a looming power cut - but in moderation. 東京氣溫在週二下午1點達到攝氏35.1度。政府連續第二天要求東京地區用戶節約用電—但是適度地—以避免可能的斷電。 "Apparently there are some elderly people who have turned off their air conditioners because we are asking people to save energy, but please - it's this hot - don't hesitate about cooling off," trade and industry minister Koichi Hagiuda told a news conference. 經濟產業大臣萩生田光一在記者會上說，「顯然有一些老人因為我們要求民眾節約能源而關掉空調，但是，拜託，天氣這麼熱，請不要猶豫涼快一下」。 Next Article Topic: Penguins at a Japanese aquarium are being fed cheaper fish - and they aren't happy 日本水族館的企鵝被餵食較便宜的魚—牠們不開心 An aquarium employee waves a mackerel near a penguin － but there's no reaction. When she moves the fish closer to its beak, the penguin turns away haughtily. An otter sniffs the fish, then runs away. 一名水族館員工拿著鯖魚在一隻企鵝身邊揮舞，但是企鵝沒反應。當她把魚靠近企鵝嘴邊，這隻企鵝倨傲地別過頭。一隻水獺聞了聞這隻鯖魚，然後游走。 Before, the Hakone-en Aquarium offered penguins and otters "aji," or Japanese horse mackerel, which the animals readily ate. 箱根園水族館之前給企鵝和水獺吃日本竹筴魚，牠們很樂意吃。 The price of aji has increased by 20% to 30% since last year, the aquarium said. So to cut costs, in May the aquarium switched to a cheaper alternative － "saba," or mackerel. 水族館說，自去年以來，竹夾魚價格已經上漲20%到30%。因此，為了削減成本，館方五月改用較便宜的替代品：鯖魚。 It has not been well received. The aquarium says penguins and otters have their preferred type of fish and the aquarium tries its best to accommodate their needs. 但是此舉並不很受到歡迎。水族館說，企鵝和水獺都有牠們偏好的魚種，館方設法盡量滿足他們的需要。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1530996 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1532193 歡迎留言告訴我們你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/cl81kivnk00dn01wffhwxdg2s/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

Shinzo Abe là một nhà lãnh đạo nổi bật và không phải ngẫu nhiên mà ông là thủ tướng tại vị lâu nhất của Nhật Bản. Di sản của ông để lại sẽ bao gồm cả một chương trình cải cách trong nước đầy tham vọng và một chính sách đối ngoại có tầm nhìn xa. Ba mũi tên trong kế hoạch cải cách kinh tế “Abenomics” của ông - sử dụng sự gia tăng chi tiêu nhà nước, chính sách tiền tệ siêu dễ dàng, cải cách cơ cấu đã tạo ra những kết quả tích cực như đưa nền kinh tế lớn thứ ba thế giới thoát khỏi vòng xoáy giảm phát, giảm tỷ lệ thất nghiệp xuống mức thấp nhất trong 26 năm và tạo ra giai đoạn 71 tháng tăng trưởng liên tiếp. #abenomics #shinzoabe

Welcome to this brand new investing podcast from the London South East. My name is Peter Higgins, you can find me on Twitter @conkers3 and I will be your host for this series of Investing Matters podcasts. What can you expect from the Investing Matters podcasts? A great question. You will find long form interviews with noteworthy veterans and experts from the investment and fund management industry. During these interviews each interviewee will share and impart their knowledge, learning and insights on what aspects of Investing truly matters to them and what in their view should matter to investors. We hope this knowledge exchange benefits all and enables all those accessing and listening to these podcasts to achieve even greater investing success. With that in mind, welcome to episode nineteen, which is with the hugely talented, award-winning Investment Industry commentator, Janet Mui. CFA qualified, investment strategist and Economist at heart, Janet is the Head of Market analysis at Brewin Dolphin and is a voting member of Brewin Dolphin's Asset Allocation Committee. Janet has over 15 years of experience in macro research and was previously the global economist at Cazenove Capital. Janet is responsible for the commentary and communication of Brewin Dolphin's macro / investment views to clients and the media and is a frequent guest on the BBC, Sky news, Bloomberg and CNBC. Janet won the best industry commentator award at the 2021 City of London wealth management awards. Janet has a first-class Economics degree from the London School of Economics and an MBA in Finance at Cambridge University. She also holds the CFA Certificate in ESG Investing and the Postgraduate Certificate in Econometrics from Birkbeck College, University of London. Janet was named one of Linkedin's top voices in finance for 2022. In this Investing Matters podcast, I discuss with Janet, her passion for Economics, the sheer scale and importance of her role and responsibilities at Brewin Dolphin, her regular successful long-term investing approach, the importance of mindset and psychology for growth and success. ESG oversight and governance, dealing with market volatility and turbulence, being a role model, Abenomics and much more. We hope you enjoy this podcast, and we look forward to hearing your feedback. Please subscribe to this podcast on your platform of choice and follow the @InvMattPodcast on Twitter.

每日英語跟讀 Ep.K405: Shinzo Abe - Japan's longest-serving prime minister   Shinzo Abe smashed records as Japan's longest-serving prime minister, championing ambitious economic reform and forging key diplomatic relationships while weathering scandals. 安倍晉三打破了日本首相任期的最長紀錄，他支持雄心勃勃的經濟改革，並在經歷醜聞的同時建立了關鍵的外交關係。 Nearly two years after poor health forced him to leave office, the 67-year-old was shot during a campaign event in the western region of Nara on Friday last week. 在他因健康狀況不佳而被迫下台後兩年，六十七歲的他上週五在奈良西部地區一場競選活動中被槍殺。 Abe was a sprightly 52 when he first became prime minister in 2006, the youngest person to occupy the job in the postwar era. 安倍在二○○六年首次擔任首相時年僅五十二歲，是戰後日本最年輕的首相。 He was seen as a symbol of change and youth, but also brought the pedigree of a third-generation politician groomed from birth by an elite, conservative family. Abe's first term was turbulent, plagued by scandals and discord, and capped by an abrupt resignation. 他被視為變革與年輕的象徵，但他也是出身精英保守家庭的政治家族第三代。 安倍的第一個任期動盪不安，飽受醜聞與不和的紛擾，並以突然辭職告終。 - They called it ‘Abenomics' - He ran again, and Japan's revolving prime ministerial door brought him back to office in 2012. It ended a turbulent period in which prime ministers sometimes changed at a rate of one a year. With Japan still staggering from the effects of the 2011 tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster at Fukushima — and a brief opposition government lashed for flip-flopping and incompetence — Abe offered a seemingly safe pair of hands. 他再次參選，日本的首相旋轉門讓他在二○一二年再度擔任首相。 這終結了日本首相更替頻繁（有時只做了一年便下台）的動盪時期。 當時日本仍因二○一一年海嘯及之後福島核災的影響而步履蹣跚，以及短暫執政、被批評為政策出爾反爾及無能的反對黨政府——在此情況下，安倍看來是穩健的選擇。 And he had a plan: Abenomics. The scheme to revive Japan's economy — the world's third-biggest, but more than two decades into stagnation — involved vast government spending, massive monetary easing and cutting red tape. Abe also sought to boost the country's flagging birth rate by making workplaces more friendly to parents, particularly mothers. 而且他有個計畫：「安倍經濟學」。 重振日本——這世界第三大經濟體，但已陷入停滯二十多年——經濟的計畫，有賴大量政府支出、大規模貨幣寬鬆，以及削減繁文縟節。 He pushed through controversial consumption tax hikes to help finance nurseries and plug gaps in Japan's overstretched social security system. While there was some progress with reform, the economy's bigger structural problems remained. Deflation proved stubborn and the economy was in recession even before the coronavirus struck in 2020. Abe's star waned further during the pandemic, with his approach criticized as confused and slow, driving his approval ratings down to some of the lowest of his tenure. 安倍還試圖營造對父母，尤其是對母親更友善的工作環境，來提高日本不斷下降的出生率。 他推動調高消費稅這具爭議性的政策，以資助托兒所並補強日本負擔過重的社會福利系統。 雖然改革取得了一些進展，但更大的經濟結構性問題依然存在。 事實證明，通貨緊縮很頑強，甚至在二○二○年冠狀病毒來襲之前，經濟就已陷入衰退。 安倍的光環在疫情期間變得更加黯淡，他的做法被批評為混亂及緩慢，讓他的支持率降至任期內最低。 - Political storms - - 政治風暴 - On the international stage, Abe took a hard line on North Korea, but sought a peacemaker role between the US and Iran. He prioritized a close personal relationship with Donald Trump in a bid to protect Japan's key alliance from the then-US president's “America First” mantra, and tried to mend ties with Russia and China. 在國際舞台上，安倍對北韓採取強硬立場，但又想在美國和伊朗之間扮演和平推手的角色。 他優先考慮跟美國總統唐納‧川普建立密切的個人關係，以保護日本的關鍵同盟免受當時川普口號「美國優先」的影響，並試圖修補與俄國及中國的關係。 But the results were mixed: Trump remained eager to force Japan to pay more for US troops stationed in the country, a deal with Russia on disputed northern islands stayed elusive, and a plan to invite Xi Jinping for a state visit fell by the wayside. Abe also pursued a hard line with South Korea over unresolved wartime disputes and continued to float plans to revise Japan's pacifist constitution. 但結果好壞參半：川普仍急於迫使日本為駐紮在日本的美軍支付更多費用，日本與俄國對北部島嶼主權之糾紛仍難以達成協議，邀請習近平進行國事訪問的計畫也被擱置。 日本與南韓間懸而未決的戰時爭端，安倍也採強硬立場，並繼續提出修改日本和平憲法的計畫。 Throughout his tenure, he weathered political storms including cronyism allegations that dented approval ratings but did little to affect his power, in part thanks to the weakness of the opposition. Abe had been due to stay on until late 2021, giving him an opportunity to see out one final event in his historic tenure — the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games.But in a shock announcement, he stepped down in August 2020, with a recurrence of ulcerative colitis ending his second term, too. 在他整個任期內，他經受住了政治風暴，包括裙帶關係的指控，這些指控讓他的支持率降低，但對他的權力幾乎沒有影響，部分原因是反對派的軟弱。安倍原定留任至二○二一年底，讓他有機會在史上最長任期內看見最後一件大事——延期的二○二○年東京奧運。 然而，他令人震驚地宣布在二○二○年八月下台，潰瘍性結腸炎的復發也結束了他的第二個任期。Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2022/07/12/2003781569

Japan's former Prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated on July 8. Japan is one of the world's safest countries, has some of the strictest gun laws and has lived by a culture of pacifism since the end of WWII. Fran Racioppi asked Boston University Professor Bill Grimes to join him for a conversation on Prime Minister Abe, his conservative policies on national defense and economics, his place in Japan's history of charismatic leaders, and where Japan goes from here internationally and domestically. Professor Grimes teaches international relations and political sciences, has authored a number of books on Japanese politics and economics, and has served in the Japanese Ministry of Finance and at the Bank of Japan. Learn more on The Jedburgh Podcast Website and check out our video YouTube versions of all episodes here.Highlights:-Professor Grimes expects Prime Minister Abe's policies on nationalism, military defense and his economic program called Abenomics to continue. -Japan is one of the safest countries in the world with less than ten gun violence deaths per year in a population of 127 million people.-Fran asks Bill to break down Japanese military capability following the WWII policy of pacifism and how Prime Minister Abe pushed to expand Japanese defensive military capability. -Prime Minister Abe was keen on preventing Chinese encroachment in the region but also maintaining China as a strategic trade partner. -Bill shares why Japan is critical to US influence in the Asia-Pacific region across economic, political and defense fronts; including the Trans-Pacific Partnership.-Fran challenges Professor Grimes to define what it takes to be a great world leader.-Bill provides the lesson of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and how just being a good person was the key to his success.Quotes:-”The Abe that we see after say 2013-2014 was a pragmatist, an internationalist.”-”The basic story of Abe doesn't disappear.”-”Until China really started its naval build-up 10-15 years ago, Japan had arguably the second-most capable navy in the entire world.”-”This goes way back with this desire to prevent Chinese encroachment and pressure.”-”Japan is absolutely the linchpin of US Asia-Pacific strategy.”-”Japan is becoming economically weaker relative to China.”-”He learned…that's not that easy to do…Learning is extraordinarily important.”-“He was an extremely effective inside player.” -”He was the one person in Japan…who had both the inside game and the outside game.”-”Over eight years you make enough incremental change you changed the country.”This episode is brought to you by Jersey Mike's, 18A Fitness, & Analytix Solutions.

The assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe on 8th July shocked the world, with tributes pouring in from all over the globe. Abe, Japan's longest serving prime minister until he stepped down in 2020, was arguably one of the country's most consequential leaders. He oversaw a programme of economic reform at home, which came to be known as Abenomics, as well as a reorientation of Japan's approach to foreign policy and national security.In this episode we look at Abe's legacy, particularly when it comes to international affairs. We are thrilled to be joined by Eva Pejsova, senior Japan fellow at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Brussels School of Governance; and Dr Mike Green, chief executive of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and the author of ‘Line of Advantage - Japan's Grand Strategy in the Era of Shinzo Abe.' 

Shinzō Abe Politólogo ex primer ministro de Japón en dos periodos: el primero del 26 de Septiembre del 2006 al 25 de Septiembre del 2007 y el segundo del 26 de Diciembre al 16 de Septiembre del 2020, miembro de una de las familias más importantes de Japón, con tres generaciones de historia dentro de la política japonesa. Conocido como “Halcón” en su política exterior y por su estrategia económica “Abenomics” que incluyó tres de las llamadas “flechas”: estímulo monetario masivo, aumento del gasto público y reformas económicas significativas. ¿Qué implicaciones trae este atentado? La importancia de estos sucesos en un país donde los niveles delictivos son muy bajos, involucra la falta de conocimientos en la Protección Ejecutiva, ya que los ataques a la figuras públicas no están en primer lugar con relación a los índices de criminalidad general. Uno de los mayores retos en la asistencia a eventos públicos, es la exposición a muchas personas, entre las cuales pudieran tener algún grado de desequilibrio psicológico que los lleve a cometer un ataque planeado o al azar en contra de un individuo, ya que generalmente trabajan solos y atacan en cualquier momento. ¿Cómo anticiparse a ese tipo de casos? De acuerdo al “Exceptional Case Study Proyect” realizado por el Servicio Secreto, cuando es una sola persona la que está en riesgo se debe analizar la vida, actuación e interacciones sociales que pudieran representar una amenaza. Comportamiento de un protegido en Japón En el 99% de empresarios y servidores públicos, confían en su equipo de Protección Ejecutiva y sigue las recomendaciones que le hace su personal. El gran problema Poco entrenamientoNo pensar en todos los escenariosDemasiada cercaníaNo considerar que fuera un balazoParadigmas para reconocer amenazasPermitir huecos en la seguridadNula capacidad reactiva ¿Cuál es la lección principal? 1-Crisis a nivel mundial sobre la Protección Ejecutiva 2- Diseñar operativos funcionales 3- Se debe tener una logística y planeación adecuada 4- Infiltración de agentes sombra 5-Analizar el entorno adecuadamente Perfiles dentro de la Protección Ejecutiva Existen dos tipos: El que está al pendiente de la operación El que planea previamente todo Recomendaciones: Libro: Protección Ejecutiva en el siglo XXI: La Nueva Doctrina. Autor: Ivan Ivanovich Libro: Left of Bang. Autores: Patrick Van Horne y Jason Riley. Libro: Factfulness. Autor: Hans Rosling

A conversation with two Danish Masters in Economics students about all things related to Japan's 1990s market crash, the factors that led to it, its long lasting effects, and everything in between.

This episode, we discuss the impact former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had on Japan and on the world, with a focus on his national security and economic agendas. We discuss his legacy, analyzing both his popularity and his divisiveness. Click here or head to s.nikkei.com/3feonH8 to get 3 months of Nikkei Asia coverage for just $9. First, Monica Hunter-Hart interviews Nikkei Asia diplomatic correspondent Ken Moriyasu about how Abe reshaped Japan's defense policy (05:10), and then Tobias Harris, an Abe biographer (23:19). Next, Jack Stone Truitt interviews Takuji Okubo about the legacy of Abenomics (35:31). This episode of Asia Stream is hosted by Jack Stone Truitt and produced by Monica Hunter-Hart. Related to this episode: Japan after Abe: Political stability under threat?, by Naoya Yoshino Abe forged unique conservative path for Japan in Asia diplomacy, by Hiroshi Minegishi Shinzo Abe made Japan an ever closer ally: ex-U.S. diplomats, by Yukihiro Sakaguchi and Tomoko Ashizuka Abe's assassination transforms Japan's political landscape, by Shunsuke Shigeta and Rieko Miki In pictures: Shinzo Abe, the scene of his assassination, by Nikkei staff writers

Kirsty Lang on Shinzo Abe - Japan's longest-serving prime minister who sought to end a wartime legacy of defeat and occupation and to tackle the economy through ‘Abenomics'. Actor Mona Hammond is best known for her TV role in Eastenders. Lorna de Smidt, the anti-apartheid and anti-racist activist who cut her political teeth in the Black Consciousness Movement in South Africa in the late 1960s. And Monty Norman - Composer and singer who wrote the James Bond main theme and a string of successful musicals as well. Producer: Neil George Interviewed guest: Nakano Koichi Interviewed guest: Dr Kristin Surak Interviewed guest: Michael Buffong Interviewed guest: Graham de Smidt Interviewed guest: Matthew Sweet Archive clips used: BBC News, Report on death of Shinzo Abe, 08/07/2022; BBC Radio 4, The World This Weekend, Votes counted for Japanese election, 29/07/2007; BBC One, Eastenders 25/10/2010; Humphrey Barclay Productions for Channel 4, Desmond's S01E04 26/01/1989; BBC Radio 4, The Archers 28/12/2003; BBC Two, Storm Damage (1989), 23/01/2000; Paramount Pictures/ Albert S. Ruddy Productions/ Alfran Productions, The Godfather Part 1 (1972); BBC Radio 4, News Bulletin19/03/2001; BBC Two Omnibus - Monty Norman interview 17/10/1982.

Shinzo Abe, ex primer ministro de Japón, fue asesinado a tiros el pasado viernes cuando pronunciaba un discurso en la ciudad occidental de Nara. Tras el tiroteo fue trasladado de urgencia a un hospital donde se certificó su muerte. El asesino, llamado Tetsuya Yamagami, disparó dos veces por la espalda con un arma de fabricación casera, fue detenido en el lugar del crimen y puesto a disposición judicial. Se trata al parecer de un hombre de 41 años que estaba desempleado y sirvió varios años en el ejército japonés. Llevaba meses planificando un atentado que no tiene motivaciones políticas. Lo hizo, según se desprende de la investigación preliminar llevada a cabo por la policía japonesa, por cuestiones personales de animadversión hacia Abe El crimen ha conmocionado a Japón, un país extremadamente pacífico en el que la criminalidad es muy baja y apenas existe violencia política. Abe, que tenía 67 años en el momento de su muerte, había ocupado en dos periodos la oficina del primer ministro. El primero de 2006 a 2007 y el segundo de 2012 a 2020. Había sido primer ministro durante más tiempo que cualquier otro en el Japón de posguerra y eso le permitió dejar un perdurable legado en la política y la economía de Japón. Durante sus sucesivos mandatos, un total de cuatro, llevó a Japón a jugar un papel mucho más activo en el concierto internacional tras varias décadas manteniéndose al margen de los grandes asuntos globales. Abe se retiró voluntariamente hace menos de dos años aquejado de una enfermedad crónica, pero no abandonó su escaño en el parlamento, donde encabezaba una de las facciones del Partido Liberal Democrático. Desde esa posición siguió defendiendo que Japón se involucre más con sus aliados occidentales, refuerce su ejército y sirva de contrapeso regional a una China en ascenso y una Rusia hostil. Japón, un país estable y tranquilo, ofrecía un contrapunto a un mundo que se ha vuelto muy turbulento. Los políticos japoneses suelen acercarse mucho y suelen descuidar su seguridad. Abe fue presa fácil para el asesino, no tuvo más que colocarse a su espalda y disparar. El crimen ha dejado al país en estado de shock y ha reforzado a su partido en las elecciones que se celebraron el domingo para renovar la cámara alta del parlamento. Shinzo Abe deja a su espalda un Japón muy distinto al que se encontró cuando llegó por primera vez al despacho del primer ministro hace 17 años. A él se debe, por ejemplo, el programa económico bautizado como “Abenomics” y la reorientación estratégica del país embarcándose en proyectos como el Diálogo de Seguridad Cuadrilateral, más conocido como Quad, en el que se unió a Estados Unidos, la India y Australia para contrarrestar el creciente poder chino en la región del indo-pacífico. Tiene continuador, el actual primer ministro Fumio Kishida, antiguo ministro de exteriores de Abe, ha continuado con las misma política. En La ContraRéplica: - Villarejo, Ferreras y Podemos - Los problemas motrices de Biden - Español latino · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #ShinzoAbe #Japon Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

Adrian Saville – Professor, Gibs

Global Policy Watch #1: The Road Not Taken Insights on policy issues making news around the world— Pranay KotasthaneEast Asian economic success is one of India’s favourite public policy discussion themes. Regardless of the facts, we have strengthened our own beliefs based on that transformation. For instance, many Indians are convinced that South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan became powerhouses through well-executed industrial policies in which governments threw their full weight behind specific domestic sectors and companies. East Asian examples are often used to justify India’s protectionist trade measures, a business environment that places higher compliance requirements on foreign companies, and generous pro-business subsidies. In this debate, we forget the role of two other crucial factors. One, the role of geopolitics. As Arthur Kroeber’s notes in China’s Economy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were part of the US alliance structure and benefited immensely from programs of technical assistance, educational exchanges, and access to the American market.Two, what’s more significant is that South Korea’s transformation as an export powerhouse predates industrial policy measures. Like India, South Korea too had a scarce foreign exchange reserves problem. Like India, it too opted initially for trade and monetary policies ostensibly aimed at preserving these reserves. But starting 1964-65, South Korean leaders—nudged by the US—were able to reimagine a future in which their foreign exchange problem was to be ameliorated not by import controls but by increasing exports.To explain the freakish similarities and differences between the paths India and South Korea chose, read these excerpts from an excellent NBER paper From Hermit Kingdom to Miracle on the Han: Policy Decisions that Transformed South Korea into an Export Powerhouse by Douglas A. Irwin. The economic problems of the 1950s South Korea were uncannily similar to India:Korea’s economic policy in the 1950s was built around “the three lows”—low grain prices, low interest rates, and a low price of foreign exchange—and the controls needed to maintain them. Although the controls led to perpetual shortages of grain, capital, and foreign currency, each had a rationale. The government sought low grain prices to keep the cost of living down, relying on grain imports from the United States made available through PL 480 (food assistance) grants. The government maintained interest rate ceilings, ostensibly to help borrowers and promote investment, but negative real interest rates meant there was little incentive to save, diminishing investment and financial development. The government kept the price of foreign exchange artificially low to make imported goods, particularly capital goods, cheaper than they otherwise would have been.The shortage of foreign exchange led the government to introduce import controls to conserve foreign exchange reserves. Import licensing was introduced in 1946 to impede the purchase of nonessential foreign goods. In 1949, the Ministry of Finance began preparing a quarterly foreign exchange budget to determine how export earnings and aid inflows should be allocated in purchasing imports.The overvalued currency had a devastating effect on the country’s merchandise exports, which declined from $40 million in 1953 to just $16 million in 1958, a year in which imports were $370 million.South Korea too had an aborted devaluation attempt in the 1960s. The government devalued the won in two steps… The February 1961 devaluation was made in conjunction with a major reform of the foreign exchange system. The government rationalized the complicated multiple exchange rate system and began to relax import controls, paving the way for a fully unified exchange rate in June of that year.The devaluation increased exports significantly, but caused pain in the short term.In the first two months of 1961, prices rose 15 percent, and industrial production, which depended on cheap imported intermediate goods, fell.21 The devaluation hurt the political fortunes of the deeply divided government, which went through several major cabinet reshuffles during its short period in power and never enjoyed strong public support. The government was widely seen as inept, and public dissatisfaction with the country’s situation led to protests. After renewed political unrest and street demonstrations by students, a military coup overthrew the nine-month-old government on May 16, 1961.Changing tack, the incoming military rulers opted for atmanirbharta:The government envisioned state investment to build up heavy and chemical industries to increase national security and end the country’s dependence on US aid and foreign sources of supply. Given Korea’s enormous trade deficit and tiny export base, the government thought it easier to replace imports by expanding domestic production of those goods rather than to try to make up the gap by exporting more. The plan was to make the country self-reliant in its ability to pay for its imports, but the plans were formulated “without due consideration of Korea’s short supply of capital and technology,”This plan failed as each of these required more foreign exchange, which was the limiting condition. Then came a food crisis.The US also withheld economic aid from Korea, including PL480 food assistance at a time when food was in desperately short supply. In April 1963, Korea agreed to a new stabilization program to reduce the budget deficit, in the hope of bringing inflation under control. The government also agreed to dismantle trade controls and eventually adopt a floating exchange rate. Aid was released, but by July it was clear the government was not living up to the agreement.Things begin to change after elections in 1963. Eventually, the government went ahead with another devaluation, and a slew of decisive policy reforms in 1964-65.In essence, Kim believed that the government would have to get rid of “the three lows”—the low exchange rate, the low-interest rate, and low grain prices—as well as reform the foreign exchange system. The devaluation had already raised the exchange rate; getting rid of low interest rates and low grain prices would be deeply unpopular. Said one leader: "“Eventually, the entire business world will protest the policies. Plus, the National Assemblymen will join them and intelligent media editorialists will criticize the policies . . . it will be very difficult.”The government began promoting slogans such as “exports alone promise a way to economic self-reliance” and “exports as the yardstick to measure the sum of our national strength”The economy started reaping the rewards even before the industrial policy kicked in:“The export success of the 1960s and 1970s was basically due to the removal of impediments to trade, namely, the complicated foreign exchange system and the negative effects on export of the protectionist import policy,” “Once the impediments were removed, the economy began realizing its huge export potential, which had been left unexploited until then."So next time someone sings paeans about South Korea’s industrial policy success, do tell them aap chronology samajhiye.Thank you for reading Anticipating the Unintended. This post is public so feel free to share it.The global outpouring of respect and admiration for Shinzō Abe is proof of his outsized impact on Japan and the world. To put his economic contributions in perspective, here’s an edited version of RSJ’s essay on Abenomics from edition #69.Global Policy Watch #2: Abe Yaar! Lessons From 'Japanification' (From our Archives) Insights on policy issues making news around the world—RSJShinzō Abe, the longest-serving Japanese PM ever, stepped down from office last week. His second term which began in late 2012 was marked by his prescription for reviving the Japanese economy. The world called it Abenomics.Through a mix of unconventional monetary policy, robust fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms to boost growth, Abenomics was seen as a marked departure from the timid response that characterised the previous regimes. Abe was determined to jolt Japan out of the economic morass it had dug itself in for over a quarter-century since 1990. We will discuss Abenomics and what lessons it holds for us in more detail later. But let’s go back to the lost decades of Japan that gave us the pejorative term ‘Japanification’ and understand what happened during that time.Bubble, Bust And No RecoveryJapan was the miracle economy following WW2, benefitting from U.S. largesse in infrastructure spending, government investments in technology and research, a rise in entrepreneurship and an increase in factor productivity for over three decades. Low-interest rates and all-round prosperity in the 80s led to an asset bubble. The stock market and real estate valuations went through the roof on the back of speculations and easy credit policy. There’s an urban legend (or truth?) of three sq. mts. of land near the royal palace being sold at US$ 60,000. That meant the appraisal value of the palace was more than the state of California then. In little over 25 years from 1960, the land value went up by 5000 per cent in Tokyo and other major cities. By the end of 1989, the Nikkei index was at its historic high of 39,000. This was a bubble and like all bubbles, it popped in 1990.Japan hasn’t recovered since. The obvious reasons were discerned immediately. The policy response to the bubble was to increase interest rates and quell speculation. But as the equity market and real estate prices crashed, borrowers who had overleveraged themselves were trapped. A debt crisis soon followed with widespread loan defaults. The contagion now engulfed Japanese banks which were staring at a huge pile of NPAs. The credit dried up, investments fell, and the growth slowed dramatically. The sentiment turned negative and the consumers cut down on spending. This began a deflationary cycle.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was slow to respond and the deflation spiral set in. Why would you spend today when you know the prices would be lower in future? BoJ began cutting interest rates and brought it below 1 per cent by the mid-90s to spur investment. But these actions weren’t coordinated with a fiscal response. The hike in consumption tax in 1996 meant the further dampening of consumption sentiments. The loan default crisis led to the collapse of three banks in the mid-90s. By 1997, as BoJ and the government were getting their act together, the Asian financial crisis dealt a crippling blow to the economy. This set it back for another three years.What Went Wrong?Krugman in 1998 argued the lost decade of the 90s was because of monetary policy failure. His view was the BoJ should have publicly taken a high inflation target that would have avoided deflation and prevented interest rates from going down to zero. Of course, this is supported by theory. A higher inflation target anchors inflation expectation at a higher number and this increased expectation, in turn, leads to higher inflation because of the forward-looking aspect of the aggregate supply equation. Further, the increase in inflation expectation would reduce the real interest rate because it takes time for the nominal interest rate to reach its long-term level. In the short term, this reduced real interest rate stimulates growth which in turn increases inflation. A kind of a virtuous cycle sets in.Anyway, this wasn’t done by BoJ. The other option was to reduce the interest rate to zero quickly and provide substantial monetary stimulus quickly to check loss in output. A combination of a high inflation target (as suggested by Krugman) and monetary easing policy could have possibly worked.Between 2001-06, the BoJ went on a quantitative easing overdrive purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds. After the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the BoJ extended this programme to purchase private-sector financial assets including corporate bonds, ETFs (therefore equity in private companies), CPs and invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs). This had an impact on financial markets with stock markets rising, a fall in bond yields and an increase in corporate bond issuances. But this expansionary policy came at a cost. The debt to GDP ratio which was around 60 per cent in the 90s went up to 240 per cent by 2012. However, all of these measures didn’t move the needle on inflation. It is possible a higher purchase of private risky assets like corporate bonds and commercial paper instead of government bond would have spurred growth and raised inflation expectations. But that was not to be.Separately, the lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies hurt the economy. There were multiple increases in taxes to balance the budget while the monetary policy was working to increase consumption sentiments. Lastly, there was a lack of clear communication to manage expectations among the public about long-term inflation, interest rates or growth. Forward-looking guidance by the central bank on these parameters provides assurance to market participants more so when the financial system is weakened by high NPAs and general risk aversion. A recent example of this was seen when the US Fed indicated it will purchase corporate bonds as part of its stimulus during the pandemic. The planned purchase announcement itself did the trick in raising bond prices before the Fed actually bought a single one of them.Abenomics In PlayShinzo Abe and BoJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda assimilated the learnings from the lost quarter-century to formulate the ‘three arrows’ of Abenomics in 2013. The three arrows were:A monetary policy based on a qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) framework with a 2 per cent inflation target, significant purchase of long-duration government securities and private risky assets, expansion of BoJ balance sheet and upfront guidance on these numbers. BoJ promised to double its monetary base to 54 per cent of the GDP by 2014.  A robust fiscal policy that increases absolute government spending on areas like public infrastructure, welfare for its ageing population and servicing the debt. This was to be done in close coordination with the monetary policy actions.Structural reforms to spur growth and private investment. This includes lower corporate tax, increase in participation of women in the labour force, more immigration and acceptance of high-skilled foreign workers, more inbound tourism to Japan and championing of free trade (TTP), lower FDI barriers and global liberal order to counter China.You couldn’t fault their prescription based on what they learned from their past. Abenomics wasn’t a radically new construct but bringing the three arrows together, setting targets for them and then communicating it clearly, indicated Abe meant business. Japan needed to be jolted into a path of recovery and this was the way to do it. The salience of Abenomics grew as more economies, including US and EU, followed the path of QE to stimulate growth and manage financial stability.Did It work?Well, it is a mixed bag. The primary objective of the 3 arrows was to ‘warm up’ the economy to an extent that spurs demand and get the investment cycle going. On that count, it is a mixed bag. It has seen limited success in increasing women's labour force participation, more immigration and in keeping debt to GDP at a near-constant level of 240 per cent (pre-Covid) despite the increase in the monetary base. It’s not an unqualified success. The counterfactual, of course, can be asked. Could Japan be worse off today if not for Abenomics?I think it would.Lessons From AbenomicsSo, what are the lessons learnt from 7 years of Abenomics in Japan? Robin Harding writing for the Financial Times has six lessons from Abenomics for the world struggling with ‘Japanification’. I am paraphrasing below:   Monetary policy through the massive purchase of government securities and private assets works. The ‘bazooka’ of 2013 had a positive impact on the Japanese economy – stock markets boomed, credit uptake went up and unemployment fell.Despite the promise of coordinated monetary and fiscal actions, Abe couldn’t keep fiscal hawks down. The rise in consumption tax from 5 to 8 per cent in 2014 worked counter to the efforts in increasing consumption. The economy went into a recession. Another increase last year to 10 per cent had the same impact.         Communication and future guidance on targets didn’t materialise. The promised inflation target of 2 per cent was never met and the consumption tax hikes meant the premise of raising expectations and letting it do the heavy lifting in raising inflation didn’t work.Expectations management works if you meet the expectations. Beyond a point, you need to intervene directly to meet your targets. The key commitments of Abenomics were never kept and soon the market stopped responding to the BoJ plans of further easing.Stimulus doesn’t cause an increase in public debt to GDP ratio going up. We have discussed this already. It remained range-bound at 240 per cent.Structural reforms didn’t cut to the key issues confronting Japanese society – an ageing population leading to a fall in total factor productivity, a disappointed younger generation carrying the burden through levies and taxes on income, a strong hierarchical working style stymieing innovation and a reluctance to embrace large scale immigration to get out of this rut (an advantage so far for the US).Course Advertisement: Admissions for the Sept 2022 cohort of Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Public Policy programme are now open! Apply by 23rd July for a 10% early bird scholarship. Visit this link to apply.Global Policy Watch #3: How Social Media Expands our Reference Networks Global policy issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneIn edition #173, I argued there are three meta-mechanisms that make social media a powerful instrument: reference network expansion, Overton Window Expansion, and disproportional rewards for extreme content due to information overload.This article generated an interesting conversation on social media (where else!). One of the discussion points was: what are the precise ways through which reference networks expand? Here’s an initial answer.To rewind a bit, our reference network comprises “people whose beliefs and behaviour matter for our behaviour”. Social media expands our reference networks as people worldwide can now instantly and repeatedly influence our perceptions. It’s common to misinterpret reference network expansion as echo chamber-isation. However, there’s something much deeper going on.A reference network expands when an individual associates herself with a new set of individuals. This association could be of two types: comparative and preferential. In the first type, we compare ourselves with others who we imagine to be similar to us. Social media expands the number of people who we can compare ourselves with. In the second, the focal point is our preferences. Our behaviour is determined by the likes and dislikes of others we encounter on social media.In the framework above, I have mapped these associations with likely impacts on our behaviours. It explains to a large extent how even domestic issues have global resonance, and why people are willing to support or hate people they’ve never met outside their social media apps.From this perspective, echo chambers span two kinds of preferential associations (“others like what I like”, and “others hate what I hate”). There are four other mechanisms through which reference network expansion takes place.Are there other ways you have seen reference network expansions happening on social media? Do leave a comment.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Report] State of Discrimination Report by Bhuvana Anand and Sarvnipun Kaur analyses all the state-level legal barriers to women's employment in India. [Book] For those interested in community building, Peter Block’s Community: The Structure of Belonging has excellent insights. The portal abundantcommunity.com too has some handy resources. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

We had a pretty volatile week this week, with crude selling off pretty sharply early in the week. In this episode, we're going to look at energy backwardation, and Tracy is going to educate us on what's happening in those markets. We also had some comments from Putin about a multipolar world. We're going to have Albert talk through that. And then on Friday, unfortunately, we saw the assassination of Japan's former Prime Minister Abe. So we're going to talk about the Japan post-Abe and what that means for the region.Key themes:1. Energy backwardation2. Putin's Multi-Polar world 3. Japan post-Abe4. What's ahead for next week?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the 25th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week. Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerdTracy: https://twitter.com/chigrlAlbert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/Time Stamps0:00 Start0:54 Key Themes for the week1:28 Catalyst of the energy sell-off on Tuesday5:44 Will we see more action in energy prices?6:57 Is it cost-ineffective to make hydrogen with natgas prices?8:11 Diesel9:20 Vladimir Putin's multipolar world.13:44 Japan post-Abe20:29 What's for the week ahead?Watch the video on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/E-v7Wcqr1g8

Following the assassination of Japan's former prime minister Shinzo Abe, we reflect on the day's events and analyse his economic legacy. Takahide Kiuchi from the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo discusses the policy of 'Abenomics'. Wall Street analyst Chris Low tells us how the markets have reacted to news of Mr Abe's death. We also get business reaction from Japan.

Abe, assassinated at a campaign event, championed stimulus spending to grow economy; Fed, watching jobs report, is in period of “extreme data dependence,” Daly says; Theranos executive Balwani convicted of fraud charges - July 8, 2022 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Shinzo Abe dies, Abenomics, online bullying, roast battle

Med anledning av Japans tidigare premiärminister Shinzo Abes plötsliga bortgång återpublicerar FollowTheMoney avsnittet om "Abenomics" - den ekonomiska genombrottspolitik som han kommer bli ihågkommen för. Avsnittet spelades in i samband med Shinzo Abes avgång till följd av sjukdom i september 2020. Han sköts ihjäl den 8 juli 2022 i Nara i samband med ett kampanjtal. I mitten av 00-talet fick en fundamental kris världens då näst största ekonomi att gå i bräschen för allt vad djärva ekonomiska idéer kallades, allt det som i dag kallas modern penningpolitik. Årtionden av stagnation förbyttes i återhämtning, tillväxt och börsyra, men nu står Japan återigen inför monumentala vägval. Med en pandemi på halsen och en rad hotande konflikter i närområdet har landets reformivrande ledare - Abenomics-metodikens mästare - insjuknat och hastigt tvingats avgå. Världskänt både för sin konservatism och futurism samtidigt har förändringens vind blåst snålt över den stigande solens rike de senaste 30 åren och kunnat konstateras ha gett en närmast kuslig föraning om vad som väntar oss andra industrialiserade länder. Men vad händer nu, efter att premiärminister Shinzo Abe lämnat ett enormt hål efter sig i det motsägelsefulla Japan? Det här är FollowTheMoney, en podcast om makt, storfinans och börsen av och med programledaren Martin Nilsson och utrikesredaktör Joakim Rönning, som frågar sig om det slutligen har blåst upp till storm och splittring innuti Japan och till öppen konflikt med dess allt mäktigare grannländer - konflikter som kan komma att drabba oss allihop?

Does Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida´s new administration represent the true beginning of the “Post-Abe” era for Japan? After the one-year transitional administration of Yoshihide Suga, Kishida was able to win a three-year term as head of the LDP, the premiership, and lower house election in fall 2021. Since then Kishida has proven to be reasonably popular, and is leaving his stamp on Japanese foreign policy, abandoning Abe´s close ties with Russian President Putin with a hardline toward Russia. Domestically Kishida promotes a “New Capitalism” that promises a reduction in income inequality compared to Abenomics. In this episode Kenneth Bo Nielsen is joined by Paul Midford to look at the new Kishida administration and discuss whether it will set Japan on a new course. Paul Midford is professor of political science at Meiji Gakuin University and the author of a recent book on Japan, “Overcoming Isolationism - Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism”. Kenneth Bo Nielsen is an Associate Professor at the dept. of Social Anthropology at the University of Oslo and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies. The Nordic Asia Podcast is a collaboration sharing expertise on Asia across the Nordic region, brought to you by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) based at the University of Copenhagen, along with our academic partners: the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Turku, and Asianettverket at the University of Oslo. We aim to produce timely, topical and well-edited discussions of new research and developments about Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Does Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida´s new administration represent the true beginning of the “Post-Abe” era for Japan? After the one-year transitional administration of Yoshihide Suga, Kishida was able to win a three-year term as head of the LDP, the premiership, and lower house election in fall 2021. Since then Kishida has proven to be reasonably popular, and is leaving his stamp on Japanese foreign policy, abandoning Abe´s close ties with Russian President Putin with a hardline toward Russia. Domestically Kishida promotes a “New Capitalism” that promises a reduction in income inequality compared to Abenomics. In this episode Kenneth Bo Nielsen is joined by Paul Midford to look at the new Kishida administration and discuss whether it will set Japan on a new course. Paul Midford is professor of political science at Meiji Gakuin University and the author of a recent book on Japan, “Overcoming Isolationism - Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism”. Kenneth Bo Nielsen is an Associate Professor at the dept. of Social Anthropology at the University of Oslo and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies. The Nordic Asia Podcast is a collaboration sharing expertise on Asia across the Nordic region, brought to you by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) based at the University of Copenhagen, along with our academic partners: the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Turku, and Asianettverket at the University of Oslo. We aim to produce timely, topical and well-edited discussions of new research and developments about Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/east-asian-studies

Does Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida´s new administration represent the true beginning of the “Post-Abe” era for Japan? After the one-year transitional administration of Yoshihide Suga, Kishida was able to win a three-year term as head of the LDP, the premiership, and lower house election in fall 2021. Since then Kishida has proven to be reasonably popular, and is leaving his stamp on Japanese foreign policy, abandoning Abe´s close ties with Russian President Putin with a hardline toward Russia. Domestically Kishida promotes a “New Capitalism” that promises a reduction in income inequality compared to Abenomics. In this episode Kenneth Bo Nielsen is joined by Paul Midford to look at the new Kishida administration and discuss whether it will set Japan on a new course. Paul Midford is professor of political science at Meiji Gakuin University and the author of a recent book on Japan, “Overcoming Isolationism - Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism”. Kenneth Bo Nielsen is an Associate Professor at the dept. of Social Anthropology at the University of Oslo and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies. The Nordic Asia Podcast is a collaboration sharing expertise on Asia across the Nordic region, brought to you by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) based at the University of Copenhagen, along with our academic partners: the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Turku, and Asianettverket at the University of Oslo. We aim to produce timely, topical and well-edited discussions of new research and developments about Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

Does Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida´s new administration represent the true beginning of the “Post-Abe” era for Japan? After the one-year transitional administration of Yoshihide Suga, Kishida was able to win a three-year term as head of the LDP, the premiership, and lower house election in fall 2021. Since then Kishida has proven to be reasonably popular, and is leaving his stamp on Japanese foreign policy, abandoning Abe´s close ties with Russian President Putin with a hardline toward Russia. Domestically Kishida promotes a “New Capitalism” that promises a reduction in income inequality compared to Abenomics. In this episode Kenneth Bo Nielsen is joined by Paul Midford to look at the new Kishida administration and discuss whether it will set Japan on a new course. Paul Midford is professor of political science at Meiji Gakuin University and the author of a recent book on Japan, “Overcoming Isolationism - Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism”. Kenneth Bo Nielsen is an Associate Professor at the dept. of Social Anthropology at the University of Oslo and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies. The Nordic Asia Podcast is a collaboration sharing expertise on Asia across the Nordic region, brought to you by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) based at the University of Copenhagen, along with our academic partners: the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Turku, and Asianettverket at the University of Oslo. We aim to produce timely, topical and well-edited discussions of new research and developments about Asia.

Does Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida´s new administration represent the true beginning of the “Post-Abe” era for Japan? After the one-year transitional administration of Yoshihide Suga, Kishida was able to win a three-year term as head of the LDP, the premiership, and lower house election in fall 2021. Since then Kishida has proven to be reasonably popular, and is leaving his stamp on Japanese foreign policy, abandoning Abe´s close ties with Russian President Putin with a hardline toward Russia. Domestically Kishida promotes a “New Capitalism” that promises a reduction in income inequality compared to Abenomics. In this episode Kenneth Bo Nielsen is joined by Paul Midford to look at the new Kishida administration and discuss whether it will set Japan on a new course. Paul Midford is professor of political science at Meiji Gakuin University and the author of a recent book on Japan, “Overcoming Isolationism - Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism”. Kenneth Bo Nielsen is an Associate Professor at the dept. of Social Anthropology at the University of Oslo and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies. The Nordic Asia Podcast is a collaboration sharing expertise on Asia across the Nordic region, brought to you by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) based at the University of Copenhagen, along with our academic partners: the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Turku, and Asianettverket at the University of Oslo. We aim to produce timely, topical and well-edited discussions of new research and developments about Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/japanese-studies

On corporate governance, third arrow of Abenomics, making a stance on the world, BDTI, productivity and labor market efficiency, incentives for the long term, family identity.   Nicholas (“Nick”) Benes was the first person in my sphere of recognition that raised a loud and clear voice regarding the need to improve corporate governance in Japan.  He laid the groundwork that eventually led to the implementation of the corporate governance code in 2014, as a part of the “third arrow” in “Abenomics,” the growth strategy of Prime Minister Abe.  Nick talks fast and acts fast, and I believe his passion and determination are reflections of his professional and personal desire to do good for society.  He describes himself as a “monkey”… What do you think?   Nicholas Benes: Representative Director The Board Director Training Institute of Japan

In episode one of Japan Memo, co-hosts Robert Ward and Yuka Koshino are joined by the Chairman of the IISS Trustees, Bill Emmott. Bill is a writer, consultant, long-time Japan watcher and Chairman of the Japan Society of the United Kingdom. From 1993−2006, he was editor-in-chief of The Economist. To launch this new IISS podcast series, Robert, Yuka and Bill discuss the key developments in Japan over the past decades. These include societal changes such as Japan's shifting demography, notably its ageing population; the role of women; ‘Abenomics' and prospects for economic reform under Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide; and Japan's response to its rapidly changing security environment. Bill also assesses Japan's standing in the region and its pandemic response, noting why we must wait until the conclusion of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to determine whether Japan has managed COVID-19 adequately. We hope you enjoy the episode and please follow, rate and subscribe to Japan Memo on the podcast platform of your choice. Date of recording: 28 June 2021 Japan Memo is recorded and produced at the IISS in London. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

John interviews Sheila Smith, a senior fellow on Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. They discuss the successes and failures of Abenomics, the arc of the pandemic in Japan, and the tricky political and public health considerations behind hosting an Olympics during a global crisis. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Featured Interview: New Japanese PM and implications for Abenomics -일본 새 총리 취임과 경제정책 전망 -Guest: Dr. Martin Schulz, Chief Policy Economist, Senior Research Fellow, Fujitsu Research Institute