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I intentionally avoid the world of quantitative investing on this podcast. The whole point of this format is to learn about many different fields, and the vast majority of my time is already spent in quant world. Occasionally I’ve broken this rule because of something unique, including this week’s conversation with Richard Craib, the founder and CEO of Numerai. If you listen to the podcast often you’ll have heard me reference Numerai, a hedge fund which blends quant investing, cryptocurrencies, crowdsourcing, and machine learning — talk about a PR company’s dream. One important note: Numerai is both incredibly open and very secretive. You may sense a bit of frustration on my part, but that is only because, as a fellow quant who loves details about data and modeling, we couldn’t go deeper into the details on the record. We discuss how Numerai has created an incentive structure to work with data scientists around the world in an attempt to build better investing models. The idea of having data scientists stake cryptocurrency in support of the quality of their models is fascinating. Like many hedge funds, Numerai doesn’t share its track record, so we don’t know if this works—but I hope you, like me, use this conversation as inspiration for how different technologies can intersect. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy my conversation with Richard Craib. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Show Notes 2:32 - (First Question) – How he came up with Numerai and how its related to his background 4:08 – How he works with and models the data for his system 5:24 – Describing machine learning as it relates to his work, and specifically linear regression 7:11 – The important stages in his sequence 8:46 – How the scale in the number of data scientists they use is different from other areas 11:30 – Which is the most important aspect of creating alpha; their data, algorithm work, proprietary ensembling of those algorithms. 14:30 – The idea of staking in blockchain 17:30 – Does the magnitude of the stake matter in blockchain 19:10 – Understanding the full incentive structure for both staked and unstaked work 21:07 – How is the prize pool determined 22:29 – Philosophy on how to source interesting data 26:11 – His thoughts on the crowd model and the wisdom of crowds 27:12 – The size of stakers for Numerai 27:51 – Interpreting the models and knowing when something is broken 30:03 – How they think about people not submitting their models 31:48 – Their model building 32:39 – Most interesting set of things they are working on to improve the overall process 35:38 – The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism 37:11 – How people can come along with their own data 39:00 – His thoughts on the quantitative investment community 40:44 – What else is interesting him in the hedge fund world 44:03 – Building a marketplace and staving off competition 46:16 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
Ryan Selkis - The Crypto Barbell and Token Curated Registries - [Invest Like the Best, EP.98] This week’s conversation is for those interested in the nitty gritty of cryptocurrencies and for those who, like me, are fascinated by that world but more than a bit skeptical of the investing prospects for the many cryptocurrencies now in existence. My guest is Ryan Selkis, who I met at an event hosted by Union Square Ventures and Blocktower Capital. At that event, in a crowd of many brilliant people, Ryan was consistently asking hard questions and raising counterpoints. I love his perspective because he is both passionate, but realistic, excited about crypto, but worried about many aspects of the ecosystem. We discuss many new topics like his barbell analogy for thinking about different kinds of coins, token curated registries, and the need to better transparency around decentralized projects. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy our conversation. March for the Fallen Want to meet other curious investors, get in good shape, and support a fantastic cause? Consider joining a great group to hike 28 miles in honor of those who have fallen in defense of our nation. Learn more and sign up at alphaarchitect.com/mftf. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Show Notes 2:55 - (First Question) – how he best explains blockchain technology 4:12 – How does he categorize each cryptocurrency 9:11 – How Numeraii is valued 10:04 – Explaining token curated registries (TCR) 12:58 – How Token Curated Registries are being applied 15:05 – Innovations that will protect against nefarious actors in the crypto space 16:37 – How do you convince investors to commit to TCR’s 18:40 – Biggest headwinds to this industry 22:12 – What are the quality filters to root out the bad actors 25:42 – Thoughts on the ICO market as an alternative to capital raising 29:23 – Litmus test for who should use an ICO to raise capital 34:28 – What is unique about creation of a token vs the normal exchange of cash to determine if a company needs a token 36:21 – How many ICO projects are really necessary 38:28 – How should people form an investment opinion about this space 41:35 – Core mission of his company 44:28 – What are some of the reasons his goals won’t happen 49:30 – Lessons learned while working at Coindesk 49:58 – What is he most excited about for the future of this space 52:56 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Ryan Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest today is Arianna Simpson, who has spent her career in an around the world of technology working at startups, Facebook, and now in venture capital as an investor focused on the world of cryptocurrencies. I met Arianna when I hosted a panel at a big investing conference in New York City and she was one of the panelists. On the panel, I found her style to be very straightforward and compelling. It is clear that she loves to learn and that the best manifestation of her style of learning is investing in technology. In our conversation we discuss broad trends in crypto that we haven’t spent much time on before: decentralized versus centralized exchanges, privacy coins, and evaluating a found or early team. We build a framework for learning about this new asset class, discuss the importance of travel, and the value of pushing oneself outside of comfort zones. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy our conversation For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Show Notes 2:12 – (First question) – How to teach someone else to build an investing philosophy around crypto 4:00 – The major risk factors to investing in crypto 6:28 – best practices for mitigating risk 7:39 – What factors to think about when it comes to whether a token will lose all value or not 8:39 - Taking a pulse of the investment community on crypto 11:36 – How she heard about and became interested in crypto currencies 12:34 – Are people really using crypto currency as a hedge against rampant inflation 13:52 – Investing thesis in the space 14:07 – Arianna’s systems for learning about cryptocurrencies and staying up to date on them 15:19 – Arianna’s take on the issue of increasing transactional through put 16:49 – Layer 1 solutions and making it all scalable on a blockchain 17:56 – her take on the fat protocol thesis 20:32 – Defining utility vs security tokens 21:54 – evaluating different coins 21:02 – Why cross currency swaps are important and how they work 26:17 – What are the chances of a scenario where there’s just one token and everything is built off of that one 28:02 - Comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges 29:47 – How the traditional investing world is going to regulate transaction involving cryptocurrencies and view security around those transactions 31:54– Impact this will have on capital formation 33:44 – Evaluating teams behind crypto companies 35:48 – The importance of gut when evaluating people 38:47 – How Arianna’s global upbringing impacts her thinking on the technology 39:51 – What countries or regions have had the largest impact on Arianna’s investing philosophy 42:41 – Doing things you’re not qualified for 43:59 – Gender imbalance in crypto and what can be done to shift that 45:28 – Most recent thing that has gotten Arianna excited in the crypto space 46:15 – Explaining Zero X 47:33 – How her views on reading have evolved 48:54 - Kindest thing anyone has done for Arianna Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Emily Cervino, VP of Stock Plan Services at Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
My guest this week is Chris Dixon, who has written some of my favorite essays on technology and venture investing. Chris is a prolific investor and thinker, having been an entrepreneur, angel investor, and now partner at the well-known venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Our conversation focuses on major trends in technology, including cryptocurrencies and the future of autonomous vehicles and drones. Chris has a rule of thumb for technology trends: find out what smart people are working on during the weekend, and you’ll know what other will be doing years in the future. After surveying his old essays, it’s clear you use Chris’s writings as a similar litmus test. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy this great conversation with Chris Dixon on the future of tech. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Books Referenced Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages Who Controls the Internet?: Illusions of a Borderless World Links Referenced Douglas Hofstadter Daniel Dennett How Aristotle Created the Computer New Yorker Cover on automation The World of Numbers website Jerry Neumann podcast episode David Tisch podcast ERC-20 Token Standard Eleven Reasons To Be Excited About The Future of Technology Show Notes 2:04 (First Question) – Why did Chris choose to study philosophy 2:23 – Douglas Hofstadter 2:24 – Daniel Dennett 3:20 – How Aristotle Created the Computer 3:35 – Where has his thinking and viewpoints changed the most having been in the real world 4:42 – What is the real driving force behind all of the technology that we are creating and will automation kill all of the jobs 6:16 – New Yorker Cover on automation 6:57 – The World of Numbers website 8:36 – A look at his history in networks and network design 11:03 – Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages 11:07 – Jerry Neumann podcast episode 12:32 – Who Controls the Internet?: Illusions of a Borderless World 13:06 – What are the market and technological forces that make it difficult to regulate software hardware companies 14:39 – The best features of proprietary centralized networks and open networks 16:40 – What things are better centralized vs decentralized 22:30 – David Tisch podcast 23:03 – When it comes to cryptocurrencies, what are the concerns that the protocols themselves hold value and could this lead to centralization of the system problems 24:02 – Block size debate (topic) 26:40 – ERC-20 Token Standard 27:23 – Is the blockchain the answer to the stagnation of the big tech players 32:47 – Does Chris find investment in individual crypto tokens analogous to seed funding in companies 34:39 - How does Chris think about the dichotomy of investing in people vs technologies 34:59 – Eleven Reasons To Be Excited About The Future of Technology 37:45 – What organizational structures of companies are most compelling 41:50 – Any major trends in technology a cause for concern for Chris 42:34 – Any interesting trends by people looking to disrupt the centralization of internet power to a small few 44:09 – What major trends is Chris passionately pursuing 51:15 – If everyone agrees on a future trend of technology, can you still make money investing in them 52:20 – How do you encourage younger people to approach the world and a career differently in this ever-changing world 57:39 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Chris Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
- Joe Wickwire, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- John Dowd, Sector Portfolio Manager for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Peter Dixon, Sector Portfolio Manager for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Denise Chisholm, Sector Strategist at Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Steve Buller, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio
- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Investments - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio