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The big things you need to know:First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equity market from this conflict, which we are monitoring closely.Second, we revisit our four tiers of fear framework, which helps us map out potential downside in US equities from the conflict, particularly if conditions escalate and broaden out.Third, Energy and Materials seem most likely to outperform if the conflict results in a sustained oil price spike, while Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services seem most likely to underperform. We're also keeping an eye on Utilities and REITs as potential, tactical outperformers.
In this weeks episode, David and Ian discuss the price action over the last few weeks and where we now stand, continued strength from Bitcoin, foreign equities, and potential issues within the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The ASX 200 closed with a gain of 13 points (+0.16%) after clawing back early losses as Trump teased a trade deal. Expected to be with the UK. Sterling and Aussie dollar rose on the news. Futures also jumped. Dow futures up 0.4%, Nasdaq futures up 0.9%. Most sectors in the green for the ASX 200. Financials, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary exceptions. ANZ fell 1.9% after disappointing earnings. WBC down 4.1% after it went ex-dividend. Fell more than dividend. CBA down 0.3%, results next Tuesday. NAB bucked the trend and rose 1.4%. Gold miners led the rally. NST up 2.4% and EVN up 2.0%. Utilities and Industrials also did well. Defensive stocks popular after Powell's hawkish tone. Industrials helped by CPU (+3.1%). No clear reason for rise. AGL rose 2.2%, COL gained 1.1%. Resources mixed. Lithium, Copper down, Coal up. Iron ore miners flat to down. BHP flat, RIO up 0.1%, FMG down 0.7%. ORI rose 7.4% after a 40% profit lift to $250.8m and a dividend boost. GYG rose 3.3% after saying it will beat full-year profit forecasts and expand in the US.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services. Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.
On Episode 557 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Karan Taurani, SVP-Research Analyst (Media, Consumer Discretionary, and Internet) at Elara Capital as well as Poorvi Chothani, Founder and Managing Partner at LawQuest.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(01:00) Markets digest fresh round of tariff volatility(04:00) OPEC cuts global oil demand growth targets. Why(05:35) Goldman Sachs sets gold for $4,000 in a year(08:27) The big changes in India's advertising landscape(20:12) India has only one airport in Global Top 50 at 32(21:51) US bound, why you should pay careful attention to what this immigration lawyer is saying?Listeners! We await your feedback....The Core and The Core Report is ad supported and FREE for all readers and listeners. Write in to shiva@thecore.in for sponsorships and brand studio requirementsFor more of our coverage check out thecore.inJoin and Interact anonymously on our whatsapp channelSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube
Barry Knapp thinks the market is “far more concerned about growth” than inflation. He discusses the impact of recent economic data and lays out his expectations for weak payroll data. He's bullish on bonds on the “intermediate” part of the curve. He says “economically sensitive” sectors like consumer discretionary should be avoided for now.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli broke down the latest for stocks on a busy morning of earnings and Fed commentary – NY Fed President Williams saying there's clear signs that short term inflation expectations are going higher… While Chicago Fed President Goolsbee calls it ‘transitory'. Trivariate's Adam Parker joined the team to talk top picks (Healthcare) and sectors to avoid (Consumer Discretionary). Plus, why UBS thinks it's time to buy the homebuilders despite a murky rate picture. Also in focus: consumer warnings out of Fedex and Nike. Sara and Mike broke down new numbers out of both names, along with the street's take on what to do with the stocks. Plus, a deep-dive on Tesla – including headlines that trade-ins are hitting record highs – with one longtime investor who is now calling for Elon Musk to step down as CEO. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Consumer Sentiment data coming in at its lowest levels since 2022 top of the hour… Carl Quintanilla, Melissa Lee, and Michael Santoli broke down the latest as the S&P and Nasdaq look to close out another tough week. Why Richard Bernstein's Deputy CIO says to avoid tech here – and that there's a slowdown ahead. Plus, a deep dive on what to do with Apple shares, as they close out their worst weekly performance since 2020. Tesla also seeing historic declines – shares adding to their longest weekly losing streak ever – more on the company's new tariff warning for the White House. And the latest for Consumer Discretionary stocks – as the sector looks for its worst week since 2023 – and the street works through a chorus of consumer warnings. Also in focus: President Trump taking aim at the CFPB – one with the regulator's former head, Rohit Chopra; Why money is flowing into utilities; and breaking down the potential impact of Trump's promised 200% tariffs on certain European spirits. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
On Episode 529 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Sumit Jain, Deputy CIO at ASK Investment Managers Private Limited as well as Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President - Research Analyst (Media, Consumer Discretionary & Internet) at Elara Capital.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(01:09) Can The Sensex Hit 105,000 by December 2025(03:33) Going back to the 101 of investing and stock picking(15:36) Oil prices are holding around $70(17:24) Musk partners Airtel to bring internet service even as Tesla car sales crash globally.(18:33) What does Reliance Retail's downsizing mean for the industry?Listeners! We await your feedback....The Core and The Core Report is ad supported and FREE for all readers and listeners. Write in to shiva@thecore.in for sponsorships and brand studio requirementsFor more of our coverage check out thecore.inJoin and Interact anonymously on our whatsapp channelSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube
U.S. equity markets were down overnight as the market digests Trumps whipsawing tariff decisions. The Dow was down -0.92% to 42,612 points.Nvidia was the main drag, falling -5.52% after CFO Colette Kress stated it would take some time for them to meet demand for their Blackwell chips.Goldman Sachs was also weak, falling -4.27%.The broader S&P500 fell -1.69% to 5,743 points. Energy was the top performing sector, up 0.63%. Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sat at the foot of the primary sector leaderboard, down -3.01% and -2.61% respectively. Trading platform MarketAxess was the top performer, closing up 5.26% after reporting stronger institutional trading volumes.BestBuy closed up 4.21% to partially recover from its strong sell off earlier in the week.
According to Eric Diton, this was the "worst week we've had in a long time" for the stock market. He says now is the time to keep Big Tech stocks in check after Nvidia's (NVDA) meltdown shook every corner of the market. He's skeptical the SPX will manage a gain by the end of 2025, though he leans bullish on the index's Equal Weight counterpart. Eric says he plans to stray away from consumer discretionary stocks due to tariffs constraining the global supply chain.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
US Equity markets: The S%P 500 set a fresh record high on Tuesday as stocks rallied into the close. Energy was the best performing sector, rising 1.9% whilst Consumer Discretionary pulled back 1%. At the close:
U.S. stocks were gathering more steam Thursday after President Trump's tariff update left open key questions about when they might be applied, and which countries may be impacted. Dow rose 342.87 points or +0.77%, with NVIDIA Corp (up +2.98%) and Cisco Systems Inc (up +2.17%) both gaining over +2%. The broader S&P 500 rose +0.99%. Materials (up +1.75%) lead all 11 of the primary sectors higher, with Information Technology (up +1.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (up +1.39%) not far behind.
U.S. stocks were gathering more steam Thursday after President Trump's tariff update left open key questions about when they might be applied, and which countries may be impacted. Dow rose 342.87 points or +0.77%, with NVIDIA Corp (up +2.98%) and Cisco Systems Inc (up +2.17%) both gaining over +2%.The broader S&P 500 rose +0.99%. Materials (up +1.75%) lead all 11 of the primary sectors higher, with Information Technology (up +1.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (up +1.39%) not far behind.
Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes. Economics and the latest employment report. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? - Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes - Economics are in.... People happy and not happy - Musk - let's talk about this .... - Praying for the turtles... Markets - Lots of Tumult - confusion but still a retail bid - Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some) - Employment Report - CPI Due this week - Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off - Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling) - Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum - China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates --- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days Economics - ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January -- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December ---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate - BLS Payrolls: 143k Added, (shy of estimates) ---- URate 4% ----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM - - - UMICH for Feb - 67.8 (DOWN from 70.1 - ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month Color on Confidence numbers - Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report --- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices Earnings: - The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years - 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average - The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth - Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point) Earnings - Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus - AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln - Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln - Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus ----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity More Earnings - Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments. - Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents. - Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG Even More Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment. - Stock kept of falling in the days after too... - Earnings per share: $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected - Revenue: $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion --- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT! Spotify
U.S. equity markets were down heavily in early trading, before paring losses as Trump promised a 1-month delay to any tariffs to be placed on Mexico. The Dow 30 down -0.28% to 44,421.91 points. Apple fell -3.39% as reports emerge that iPhone sales are still lagging in China. IBM was up just under 2% to be the top performer on the index.The broader S&P500 fell -0.76% to 5,994 points after recovering from a 1.9% fall in early trading. Consumer Staples, Utilities and Energy were the top performing sectors, up 0.68%, 0.46% and 0.42% respectively. Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary say at the foot of the primary sector leaderboard, down -1.80% and -1.37% respectively.
US equity markets up strongly on Wednesday, driven by a lower-than-expected consumer inflation print, and strong earnings released by the big financials. Dow up 703 points or 1.65%, the 30-stock index led by Goldman Sachs (up 6.02%), and American Express (up 3.98%).The broader S&P500 closed up, 1.83% higher, having its best trading day since November, following the tame inflation report. Consumer Discretionary the top sector performers, up 3.02%.
Mega-Brands: Investing in Mega Trends & the Mega Brands Best Positioned to Add Value to Your Wallet
In today's 2024 brands portfolio update, I talk about the fund, HSUTX and its returns for 2024 as well as a look-back since inception 10/17/17. An allocation to leading global brands offers significant diversification benefits as well as return benefits. Brands tend to live in the sectors under-represented across indexes. The Fund is overweight Consumer Discretionary, Staples, Communication Services, and Financials vs the market. I talk about the holdings we own, their weight vs the benchmark and what we think will perform well in 2025. For more information on investing in global brands: https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
30-stock index, while Home Depot Inc (-1.65%), Nike Inc (-1.13%), Sherwin-Williams Co (-1.37%) and Nvidia Corp (-1.41%) all fell over >1%. The broader S&P500 lost -0.54%. Consumer Discretionary (down -0.84%) and Health Care (-0.83%) both fell over >0.8% to lead ten of the elven primary sectors lower. Consumer Staples (up +0.18%) Eight stocks in the S&P 500 hit fresh 52-week highs Adobe Inc -13.69% after the software giant provided disappointing first quarter and full-year revenue guidance as part of its fourth quarter results release after the close of the previous session. Warner Bros Discovery jumped +15.43% after the group behind HBO and CNN said it would split its television networks and streaming and studios businesses into two “distinct operating divisions”, in a move that sets a path towards the company's eventual break-up.
Shopify's (SHOP) massive pop after earnings is just the latest flex of Consumer Discretionary's strength, according to Roxanna Islam. The sector has grown 20% year-to-date compared to Consumer Staples. She talks about how customers keep spending and looks into her top picks in the sector through Carvana (CVNA), Hims & Hers (HIMS), and Maplebear (CART). ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
The benchmark US indices edged their way to fresh record highs, with the Dow and S&P 500 settling above 44,000 and 6,000 respectively for the first time ever - Dow gained +304-points or +0.69% to 44,293.13. Salesforce Inc (up +6.14%) was the leading performer in the 30-stock index, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc (+2.22%) and Honeywell International Inc (+2.62%) gained over >2%.The broader S&P500 edged +0.10% higher to 6,001.35, recording its fifth consecutive session gain and longest winning streak since mid-September. Consumer Discretionary (up +1.75%) and Financials (+1.41%) leading six of the eleven primary sectors higher. Information Technology (down -0.89%) sat at the foot of the primary sector leaderboard overnight. Bristol Myers Squibb Co rallied +10.55% after rival pharmaceutical company Abbvie Inc (down -12.58%) reported a disappointing Phase 2 trial result of an experimental schizophrenia drug purchased as part of an US$8.7B acquisition last year. In September, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Bristol Myers Squibb's schizophrenia drug Cobenfy. Monolithic Power Systems Inc dropped -14.97% after analysts at Edgewater Research warned that Nvidia Corp (-1.60%) has cancelled orders with the power solutions company.
The post-election rally rolled on, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs for a second session in-a-row as investors also digested the latest rate cut and monetary policy pronouncements from the Federal Reserve. - Dow flat. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (down -2.32%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (-4.32%) handed back some of the previous session's double-digit gains. The broader S&P500 +0.74% to 5,973.10, logging its 49th record closing high of 2024. Communication Services (up +1.92%), Information Technology (+1.83%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.37%) and Real Estate (+1.19%) all gained over >1% to lead eight of the eleven primary sectors higher.
t's good to have a nice cozy sack of extra change in your savings, but... ..there's only so much wealth you can build with your savings. As a matter of fact, with savings, you won't really be building any wealth, you'll just kind of have a chunk of change sitting there. You can ditch any crazy shopping habits you may have and begin live frugally, adapting an easy, lazy lifestyle, then put that extra money in a piggy bank or bank account. But after all is said done, that money is just sitting there. Waiting. It's not growing; it's not making you richer. You want your money to work for you though. You want it to make you richer, not just be an idle pig oinking on the shelf. See, cash depreciates in value due to inflation and the interest you gain in a savings account doesn't even let you break even, yet alone gain wealth. It's not about how much money you have per se, but it's about how much wealth you have, how much buying power you have. You can only gain wealth, upgrade your buying power, if your money grows at a faster rate than the inflation rate. Otherwise, you're at a loss. That's where investing comes in. And on today's episode, we're gonna look at the ProcrastiN8 Money Rules to Gain Profit in Investing It's good to have some savings before you start investing, which is why we covered Rules of savings last week. We also looked at ways on How to Start Investing With Little Money The Lazy Way in Lvl 22 before. Today, we're gonna take those savings and keep those investment methods in mind as we go into the ProcrastiN8 Money Rules to Gain Profit in Investing 8. Calculate Your Goals on the COUCH You have to know where headed, so you can stick to it. Take your time to get to it though, of course. Procrastinate with purpose. As a procrastinator, we may wait ‘til the last minute, we may take our time, but it still gets done. We do have to know what to get done though, so we know what we're procrastinating on, what we're putting off. Calculate is part of the acronym of something I like call C.O.U.C.H ambition, which is basically the lazy way to attain your goals. I'll have a link in the show notes for a blog article where I talk about this: http://bit.ly/2T0LFUf Instead of rushing into the arena, and this case, slamming down money into the bank or an investment account as quickly as possible… ...we're first going to sit on back on our comfy COUCH and Calculate the best course of action and the details of what our end goal looks like before moving forward. Knowing our end goal and making realistic, instead of impossible dream that will never happen makes easier to move forward and attain it. Minimize the amount of years spend working and maximize the amount of years on your own Lazy Island in retirement You can even gamify your progress and turn this boring finance stuff into an RPG adventure, like a DnD campaign but...real life. Gain the loot IRL and build your own cozy castle. Check out “Lvl 10: Level Up Your Productivity with these ProcrastiN8 Gamification Apps” for more on These productivity apps can definitely be used to level up your personal finance (eg. gain xp for saving a certain amount of money, for not buying coffee or something, buying a stock, etc) ...but we can talk about how to do that perhaps in a later episode, a later quest. Here we'll dive into ways to Calculate your end goal in finances -- your retirement goal Multiply By 25 Rule Take your desired income and multiply it by 25 to get your retirement savings goal That's how much you need, total, to lay on the couch all day and not worry about how to keep the lights on the number should be HIGHER than your current amount of expenses to account for inflation Rule of 72: the time it takes to double your money is 72 divided by your rate of return 7% is the average yearly return in the stock market so it takes about 10 years to double your money think of it like a really slow cash doubling machine. you put in the money and whatever amount you put in comes out twice as much a decade later. It takes a while to “cook” but the machine runs itself. 7. Diversify Don't put all your eggs in one basket -- Don't sleep on just one pillow Make a comfortable bed with plenty of cushions If one pillow falls off, you still have plenty to keep you at rest If one stock plummets, you have a nice cozy place to sleep. Buy stocks from multiple sector (categories): Energy, Materials, Industrial, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Financials Information Technology Telecommunication Services Utilities, Real Estate, Bonds, Cryptocurrency, Commodities (oil, silver, gold), and ForEx (Foreign Exchange Market/International currencies) Mutual Fund - traded at end of day ETF (exchange traded fund) - traded during the day Equity Investing - crowdfunding that pays (Kickfurther, Slice Capital) It's like building a giant blanket fort - more pillows, more blankets = more defense 6. Relax and take it easy, man Don't make emotional decisions. Don't get worked up or upset. I mean c'mon, you don't wanna work or get worked up. You're lazy and relaxed. Remain in control of your emotions. Stay level headed and cool. Don't panic sell or buy on the hype (Facebook after Cambridge Analytica, Equifax data breach, Nintendo released PokemonGo) It'll go up and it'll go down, just ride the waves of the stock market ocean It'll be smooth sailing the less you worry about it. Also, don't obsessively check your account. This may also make it easy to get emotionally tied up in the stock market “drama” Detach yourself from your stocks emotionally. You're dating your stocks, not in a married lifelong marriage commitment to them. 5. If it's too complicated, don't even bother Stick to industries and companies you actually understand. If you're not interested, don't bother. It takes a lot of effort to research a company : look at their profits, goals, analyze their financial, ethical, and legal history, understand the strengths of its employees, have insight on the CEO's ability to make good decisions and inspire a team, track data of their ability to bring ideas to life. It's a time consuming and effortful task. Take a hobby and look at the products you purchase, the brands you use. You're already aware of what some of your favorite brands are doing (new game releases, new devices coming out) ...as well as the trends within your niche (eg. games going digital, so GameStop is becoming irrelevant) ... so it doesn't take much research or effort to know where they're going and if they're going to be profitable in the future. 4. Invest whenever you feel like it Don't try to time the market Even experts get it wrong, so as a procrastinator, don't sweat it if you do too. Procrastinate and put it off. Don't kick yourself if you miss a “golden opportunity” to buy low and sell high. No big deal. You invest when you want. You know the price will go up, eventually. You don't bog yourself down with numbers. Numbers are arbitrary. Things go up and they come back down. That's the very nature of the stock market and you accept that. You're calm about it and even when you time it “wrong” that's okay, you know it'll come back up again. I mean heck, the stock market not only recovered from the Great Depression but has far exceeded the prices pre-depression era. Deadlines don't matter, nor does stock market timing. If you worry about it, you're putting unnecessary pressure on yourself, putting yourself in the DESK trap. http://bit.ly/2ASJVWh 3. Patience. There's no rush Have realistic expectations, You ain't gonna get rich quick. Very few people do. Patience is not only a virtue, it's a lifestyle. It's the heart of what makes a procrastinator, well, a procrastinator. Be patient. Set it and forget it. Let your money grow and don't try to force it to move any faster. It'll get there, in due time. Don't worry about maximizing profits as quickly as possible, just focus on building wealth, nice and slow You'll get rich, eventually. Have patience and persistently invest. Slow n' steady wins the race. Use the turtle as your spirit animal guide to get where you want financially. 2. Be a Cheap skate Eliminate fees as much as possible. They add up quickly. You don't like to pay extra for things. You're cheap when it comes to your money, so just embrace it. Any fee you pay cuts directly into your potential profits and that's no good Annual fees, monthly maintenance fees, trading fees, deposit fees, all sorts of fees Choose an investment company with minimal fees (Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Betterment, ...or no fees at all (Robinhood, WeBull, Metador, Wise Banyan) The more fees you pay, the less money you'll make. Period. Even small fees can chip away at your wealth if you're not careful. 1. Make It Easy on Yourself Play it safe. Buy “boring” stocks (Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Wal-Mart, 3M, Procter & Gamble) Don't stretch yourself thin trying to find the “next big thing” There are millions of start ups and most of them won't be around in 5 years. Don't spend your time or money or energy trying to strike it rich. You'll make it hard on yourself. Just take it easy and make your investment decisions easy. You don't have to make it a full time job to follow the stock market. As a matter of fact, you don't even have to check it often at all. I mean you can if you want to, again, if that's something you enjoy doing. Do what you enjoy. But if you don't enjoy following the stock market, don't do it. You've already Calculated your end goal, and how much you need to save each month to meet it, so just stick to that plan, and don't get distracted. Don't get up when something startles or excites you… Relax. Lay on back down in bed instead and let your money do all the work for you. You don't even have to lift a finger, or your head off the pillow.
Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, says the market "wants it all, and it wants it now." However, while it's important the market shows strength, she worries of a "melt-up" risk. She looks at the correlation between Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples, and equity positioning to determine possible weaknesses in the consumer. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Jim and Jeff discuss why the Investing Club is closely watching these consumer discretionary stocks. Become a CNBC Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines. Signup here: cnbc.com/morningtake CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer
Star Entertainment has got its lifeline, but with losses of $1.7 billion in the last year, is it too little too late? MARKET WRAP: ASX200: up 0.95%, 8,203 GOLD: $2,693 US/oz BITCOIN: $93,043 AUD Sliding late in the day was the Energy sector, which dropped 1.1% as the price of Brent Crude plunged in late trading. Woodside closing down 2.7% to $24.70 and Santos dropped 2.3% to $6.92. Commonwealth, Westpac and ANZ all finished down. Underwear retailer Step One fell 8.8% on the news that its founder and chief executive was selling stock. Brickworks saw shares jump 7.2% after beating expectations to post a net loss of $119 million for the year. Consumer Discretionary winners included Wesfarmers, up 1.5%, Aristocrat Leisure, rising 2.8%, and JB Hi-Fi, up 3%. BHP & CSL lifted 1.6%, as Wisetech Global gained 2.8%. CURRENCY UPDATE: AUD/USD: 68.68 US cents AUD/GBP: 51.4 pence AUD/EUR: 61 Euro cents AUD/JPY: 99 Japanese yen AUD/NZD: 1.09 NZ dollars See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
These 10 Stocks show double-digit dividend triangles, representing amazing dividend growers! Find buy ideas in the Energy, Healthcare, Financial, Industrial, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples sectors. Download the Dividend Rock Star List. Make sure to check out the complete show notes. Twitter: @TheDividendGuy FB: http://bit.ly/2Z7Q5gF YouTube: http://bit.ly/2Zs6r1r DividendStocksRock.com
Independent analyst Carmen Mpelwane shares her top sector picks for the second half of the year.Craig Antonie, CIO of Anbro Capital Investments, discusses market concentration, noting that only a few stocks are driving indices higher. Simon offers his thoughts on directors buying and selling shares.
Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Carter Worth break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Tuesday, July 2nd. -- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet & SoFi Watch MRKT Call LIVE at 1pm M-TH on YouTube Sign up for our emails Follow us on Twitter @MRKTCall Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow @CarterBWorth on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook @RiskReversal Watch all of our videos on YouTube
Join Moe Ansari for a deep dive into Summer trading! Will this year's summer market Sizzle or Fizzle?
This week we're joined by Om Malik — a San Francisco-based writer, photographer, and investor with three decades of experience in Silicon Valley. We cover: • Apple, and whether they are underperforming • The need for empathy in the tech industry • Technology vs. the spectacle of technology • Our favorite products and acquisitions • Consumer Discretionary reaching new ten-year lows • Personal reflections on health and wellness — Thanks to our sponsor, Public. Public is an investing platform where members can build a portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, crypto, and alternative assets—plus get an industry-leading 5.1%* APY with a high-yield cash account. Learn more. — Skip Ahead: (00:00) Welcome (04:48) Is Apple underperforming? (15:00) Silicon Valley's Empathy Vacuum (21:39) Sam Altman and OpenAI (25:20) Technology vs. the spectacle of technology (26:49) Standout products (32:31) The most interesting ‘sexy' chart in the world (34:46) The most interesting ‘boring' chart in the world (36:47) Different asset classes (45:29) AI (48:40) The 3 day reset (51:35) Consumer Discretionary (54:50) $VLO and $IMO (58:24) Health and wellness (01:03:00) What Om is excited about — Referenced: • Silicon Valley's Empathy Vacuum - https://om.co/2024/05/27/silicon-valleys-empathy-vacuum/ • Gigaom founder Om Malik: My heart attack ‘was the best thing that happened to me' - https://www.vox.com/2016/9/8/12825866/om-malik-gigaom-true-ventures-blogging-heart-attack-recode-media-podcast — All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts' and guests' and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. — A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Options are not suitable for all investors and carry significant risk. Option investors can rapidly lose the value of their investment in a short period of time and incur permanent loss by expiration date. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. There are additional costs associated with option strategies that call for multiple purchases and sales of options, such as spreads, straddles, among others, as compared with a single option trade. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must read and understand the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) which can be found at: www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/options-disclosure-document. Supporting documentation for any claims will be furnished upon request. If you are enrolled in our Options Order Flow Rebate Program, The exact rebate will depend on the specifics of each transaction and will be previewed for you prior to submitting each trade. This rebate will be deducted from your cost to place the trade and will be reflected on your trade confirmation. Order flow rebates are not available for non-options transactions. To learn more, see our Fee Schedule, Order Flow Rebate FAQ, and Order Flow Rebate Program Terms & Conditions. Options can be risky and are not suitable for all investors. See the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options to learn more. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. See public.com/#disclosures-main for more information. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/trends-with-friends/message
Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment -- --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) - Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple - Fake Work? Market Update - If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again - Follow up - Utilities - Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove - Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate Earnings Season Update: - Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date. - Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%. - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7% - Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors. - Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials. - Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done. - - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Fake Work - An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry. - Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example." - "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts." - Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more." Buy 'em - Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again - NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592 - AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156 - SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again Follow Up - Utilities - Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places --- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS - Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone. - After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet. - AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030 Utilities ETF Apple - Earnings - Nothing great in the earnings. --- A few pockets of sunshine.... --- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...
Our Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist reviews an up-and-down first quarter for markets across the region, and gives an update on which sectors investors should be eyeing. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to the Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about our key investment views in Asia. It's Tuesday, Mar 19th at 9 am in Singapore.It's been quite a first quarter in Asian equities with a wide degree of dispersion in market returns. At one end of the spectrum Japan's Nikkei index is up 16 percent. At the other end, despite a recent rally, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 2 percent for the year. Meanwhile, the AI thematic has helped Taiwan into second place regionally, with a 10 percent gain; but Korea has risen by a lot less.Our highest conviction views remains that we're in the midst of multi-year secular bull markets in Japan and India, whilst at the same time China is in a secular bear market. So, let's lay out the building blocks of those theses.Firstly, Japan's Return on Equity Journey. We think that markets – like stocks – reward improvement in profitability or ROE. The drivers of the ROE improvement are numerous but include domestic reflation, a weaker Yen, a productive capex cycle and improved capital management by Japan's leading firms. And these together have led to improving net income margins in two-thirds of industries versus a decade ago. We forecast robust EPS growth of around 9 percent in 2024, with similar growth in 2025. Now that's assuming our foreign exchange strategists' USD/JPY forecast of 140 for the fourth quarter of this year is accurate. This week the BOJ – the Bank of Japan – is considering whether to exit its Negative Interest Rate Policy and abolish or flex yield curve control. If it does so, that will be a sign – along with recent strong wage gains – that Japan has definitively exited deflation.Secondly, India's Decade. Multipolar world trends are supporting foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and portfolio flows to India, whilst positive demographics from a rapidly growing working age population are also supporting the equity market. India is holding national elections in May, and we will be watching the policy framework thereafter. But our base case is little change; success that India has achieved in macro-stability is underpinning a strong capex and profits outlook.Finally, China's Deflationary Challenge. China continues to battle what we've termed its 3D challenge of Debt (now standing at 300 per cent of GDP), Demographics and Deflation. And profitability has fallen steadily in recent years – so going in the opposite direction from Japan; approximately halving since the middle of the last decade, whilst earnings have missed for nine straight quarters. We think more forceful countercyclical measures are needed to boost demand in China given incipient balance sheet recession due to headwinds from property and local government austerity.Finally, to summarize some of our sector and style views. We still like Korea and Taiwan's semiconductors, into an expected 2024 recovery in traditional product areas such as smart phone, as well as the new theme of AI related demand. We are positive on Financials in India, Indonesia and Singapore; Industrials in India and Mexico; and Consumer Discretionary in India. On the quant and style side, we're neutral on value versus growth as we expect the path to lower yields to be bumpy – as inflation risk remains. And we have recently recommended investors to reduce momentum exposure for risk management purposes given the strong outperformance year to date.Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen – and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.
How do industries help investors diversify their portfolios? What are the main strengths and weaknesses of the Consumer Discretionary and Cyclical sectors? More specifically, what are the characteristics of the grocery and restaurant subsectors? Learn the pros, cons, and best stocks of these industries! For the complete show notes, make sure to check out our website: thedividendguyblog.com/162 Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our Get the Best of 6 Sectors issue. Twitter: @TheDividendGuy FB: http://bit.ly/2Z7Q5gF YouTube: http://bit.ly/2Zs6r1r DividendStocksRock.com
Corporate earnings and U.S. economic data brought positive news, offset by moderately hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Strong performances in Health Care, Information Technology, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication sectors led to a rise in S&P 500 composite earnings. Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Amazon.com Inc were among the standout companies with positive earnings. The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged interest rates, signaling progress in inflation reduction but delaying rate cuts until at least May. Despite initial market fluctuations, the week ended with record-setting highs for the S&P 500. Additionally, North Star expresses optimism for consistently lower interest rates and improved stock prices in small caps in 2024. The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900
Last week, ahead of earnings, we updated our thoughts on sectors for 2024 for both the US as well as other geographical regions under RBC's coverage, Europe, Canada, and Australia. The work was based on our own top-down quantitative analysis on earnings revisions, valuations, and macro fundamentals, as well as the results of a survey that we conducted of RBC's industry analysts in late December and early January.Three big things you need to know: First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance in the year ahead, with favorable views on the impact of potentially lower interest rates and, to a lesser degree, favorable views on valuations. Second, in the US, the only region where we do formal strategy sector recommendations, we remain overweight Financials, Energy, and Health Care. We downgraded Tech to market weight, upgraded Consumer Discretionary to market weight, and upgraded Utilities to overweight. Third, in Europe, Canada, and Australia our analysts' top sectors according to the survey varied, but Utilities was among the top sectors in the eyes of our analysts in each.
Water's Tower's Head of Business Development Tim Regan was joined by WTR's Head of Consumer Discretionary Lynne Collier to talk about the state of the restaurant Industry. Collier began by highlighting her takeaways from the recent Restaurant Development and Finance Conference. She then discussed the role that technology is playing in the restaurant industry, menu pricing expectations for 2024, and her outlook for unit development in light of higher interest rates. Collier also highlighted recent sales trends from her proprietary same-store sales survey and dining observations from the Texas market.
VettaFi's vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)on this week's “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
VettaFi's vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLY) on this week's “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Today in the podcast, an update on our outlook for sectors within the US, and some thoughts on sectors from a global perspective based on the results of our latest RBC analyst survey which now includes our teams from Europe, Canada, and Australia in addition to those in the US. Five big things you need to know: First, across the globe, RBC equity analysts are most constructive on Health Care and are least constructive on Consumer Staples. Second, RBC analysts are most constructive on Europe in terms of their performance outlooks, but there is some important nuance to their regional views. Third, looking at the US specifically, our analysts are most constructive on the performance outlooks for Health Care, Energy and Financials, and are least constructive on the performance outlooks for Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Utilities. Fourth, in terms of our own US Equity Strategy sector recommendations, we have made two changes, lifting Financials to overweight from market weight and lowering utilities from overweight to market weight. Fifth, cyclicals also stand out in our survey and quant work on Europe.
Today in the podcast we're talking sectors, following the release of the results of our latest RBC analyst survey which we blend with our own top-down strategy tools to arrive at our sector recommendations. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest survey, taken in late March and early-April 2023, RBC's US equity analysts were a little north of neutral in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, on the performance outlook, our analysts were most constructive on Utilities and Health Care, followed by Energy and Tech, with the weakest outlooks for Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary. Third, the combination of our analysts' latest views, our ESG Strategy team's sector scorecard, and our own macro tools keep us overweight Utilities, Health Care, Energy, and Tech, and underweight Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. We have also downgraded Financials to market weight.
In this presentation, I will introduce you to our MSCI Sectors and their attractivenessClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsWhat do you think: Which of the global sectors is most attractive?We use GICS sector classificationGICS The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) is an industry classification system developed by Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P) and MSCI in 1999GICS works well for the global financial communityMSCI separates stocks into 11 different sectorsEnergy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Information Technology, Communication Services, Utilities, and Real EstateThen 25 Industry groupsSome sectors such as Industrials have three Industry groups as follows:Capital GoodsCommercial & Professional ServicesTransportationThere are 74 industriesWithin Transportation Industry Group there are five main Industries1) Air Freight & Logistics, 2) Passenger Airlines, 3) Marine Transportation, 4) Ground Transportation, and 5) Transportation InfrastructureThere are 163 Sub-IndustriesFinally, within the Industrials Sector, the Transportation Industry group, the Transportation Infrastructure Industry, are 3 Sub-Industries1) Airport Services, 2) Highways & Railtracks, and 3) Marine Ports & ServicesGICS sectors include 1,508 Developed Market companies, total market cap is about US$53trnThe largest sector is Info. Tech. at US$11trn market cap and consists of 183 companiesThe smallest is Real Estate with a market cap of US$1.5trn and 96 companiesWhat is your investment framework?Our investment strategies for ETFs and stocks come from our FVMR frameworkWe backtest and optimize the strategy for the factors that have worked best in each marketWe do all our research in-houseWe don't rely on other people's researchWe might of course get ideas from others, but we then test those ideas in our FVMR frameworkThe benefit of an investment framework is that it forces discipline when emotions run highEmotions from wild market events can cause you to make rash and costly decisionsTo avoid this, stick to a frameworkOur framework relies on data & structure, not just a feeling or opinionManagementIs responsible for producing earningsInvestorsSet the price the company trades atThere are 4 Elements to our FVMR frameworkFundamentals: Strong profitability shows a company is managed well.We prefer high or rising profitability.Valuation: Shows how the market perceives the stock.We prefer good fundamentals at relatively cheap valuations.Momentum: We try to avoid “value traps” by looking for positive price and earnings momentum.At times, low momentum signals an out-of-favor opportunity.Risk: We prefer low business and price risk.Not every stock is going to fly; some just provide stable returns and strong dividends.FundamentalsInfo. Tech has a 23% ROE; Health Care, Cons. Staples, and Energy are each earning 20% ROE15%
A little early morning volatility but then a small rally on the day in markets. Read below, listen, watch – the choice is yours! MARKET ACTION Dow: +186 points (+0.56%) S&P: 0.70% Nasdaq: 1.01% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.62% (+10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Svcs (+1.29%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.26%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.16%) WTI Crude Oil: $74.66/barrel (flat) Key Economic Points of the Day: Used Car Prices dropped -15% year-over-year in 2022 (from where they ended 2021), the largest single-year drop on record. This came, of course, off of large increases in 2021. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index was up in December versus November but basically right at the all-time low set in October. 21% of people surveyed said they believed it to be a good time to buy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 89.8 from 91.9 in December, the lowest since June of last year. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures opened last night down -40 points and stayed around there into the evening. This morning they pointed to a down -100 open pre-market and worsened a bit from there. The market opened down -175 points and worsened throughout the day, though it came a hundred points off the low late in the trading day The Dow closed down -483 points (-1.4%), with the S&P 500 down -1.79% and Nasdaq down -1.93% Markets on Friday gave us the full gamut of today's idiocy, as futures quickly dropped over -400 points upon the God-awful news that more jobs were created than expected last month and that lower-income people were making a little more than they had the year before. Then, hours later, markets finished to the upside after a day of volatile trading. Right now, consensus expectations are for $232/share of earnings for the S&P 500 next year, about 7-8% lower than what their peak expectations were but +5% higher than the $221 level of this calendar year. The best thing I can say is that if we had a recession in 2023, and earnings were up +5% on the year, that would be a rarity. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.58%, up eight basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Utilities (-0.60%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Consumer Discretionary (-2.95%) Most cyclical sectors were down the most today; the most defensive sectors were down the least (but all were down) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION Dow: +334 points (+1.02%) S&P: +0.56% Nasdaq: +0.49% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.13% (-8.4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Materials (+1.68%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-0.30%) – only negative sector WTI Crude Oil: $88.55/barrel (-3.53%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 92.1 to 91.3 Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It's all just so, so dumb. But I have more to say than that here … MARKET ACTION Dow: -505 points (-1.55%) S&P: -2.50% Nasdaq: -3.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.09% (+4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (-1.02%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-3.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.35/barrel (+1.11%) Key Economic Point of the Day: ADP private sector number came in at +239k for October vs. 198k expected. BLS jobs report is Friday Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Okay, so one of the largest intra-day market moves on record (from down -550 to up +950 – a 1,500 bottom-to-top move today). So there is market action AND inflation/economic action to unpack, and you have come to the right place: MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +828 points (+2.83%) – was down -550 points at the low S&P: +2.60% Nasdaq: 2.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.95% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+4.14%) – I am not going to take the time to look it up, but I will safely guess that this is the best day in years for Financials; in fact, I bet HALF of this would be the best day of 2022 for financials … NOTE: Energy was right behind it at +4.08% Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.25/barrel (+2.27%) Key Economic Point of the Day: CPI (headline) increased +0.4% for the month where +0.3% had been expected. Headline inflation is up +8.2% on the year vs. a peak of +8.9% several months back. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was up +0.6% in September. Energy prices fell -2.1% but food prices increased +0.8%. It is all about food inflation in the aggregate data. Services is the source of increased inflation. Rents were up +0.8% on the month and primary residence impact is up +7.2% year-over-year. This is simply not true in the present tense but the lag effect is the driver here as we shall all see in a couple months' time. The Fed has NO influence on this, but Health insurance prices were up a staggering 2.1% on the month and are up +28% on the year Airfare is up 43% on the year (base effect from limited travel a year ago) Goods prices were FLAT – slowest year-over-year increase since May 2021 (+6.6%) Used car prices down -1.1% on the month Clothing down -0.3% Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market really doesn't want to close strong these days, going from +100 to -100 in the last ten minutes of trading today. MARKET ACTION Dow: -107 points (-0.35%) S&P: -0.84% Nasdaq: -1.37% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.71% (+20 basis points!) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.16%); now down -27% on the year, just 1% away from the down -28% of Technology but not nearly as bad as -36% Communication Services WTI Crude Oil: $83.45/barrel (+0.60%) Key Economic Points of the Day: The Bank of Japan left their policy rate unchanged (as expected) Initial jobless claims came in again at just 213,000, and last week, it was revised down to 208,000. The four-week average is now the lowest since early June. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I'd love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading. Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&P: (-1.71%) Nasdaq: (-1.79%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.37%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.04/barrel (+0.12%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Existing home sales dropped -0.4% in August and are down -19.9% from a year ago Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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