Podcasts about Macro

Host Kevin and Alan break down why most people never escape the loop that keeps them underperforming, even when they're capable of far more. They reveal the hidden pattern behind stalled confidence, inconsistent action, and the identity traps that quietly shape your results for years. Through real stories, early speaking failures, and thousands of coaching reps, they show how belief, behavior, and self-awareness interact and why the wrong loop will shrink your entire life without you noticing.This isn't motivation. It's the framework that changed their trajectory and continues to guide high performers who want results that match their potential.Digital Asset: Confidence Framework - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e6VZopl8JamCbS4jr9c0Tncrff5MOm1T/view?usp=drive_link Learn more about:Join our private Facebook community, “Next Level Nation,” to grow alongside people who are committed to improvement. - https://www.facebook.com/groups/459320958216700Think deeper, grow faster. Join our “Next Level Book Club”  – Every Saturday – https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMkcuiupjIqE9QlkptiKDQykRtKyFB5Jbhc_______________________NLU is not just a podcast; it's a gateway to a wealth of resources designed to help you achieve your goals and dreams. From our Next Level Dreamliner to our Group Coaching, we offer a variety of tools and communities to support your personal development journey.For more information, check out our website and socials using the links below.

In this Crypto 101 Podcast episode, Tevo, Brian, and Joe tackle one of Bitcoin's most volatile weeks, analyzing extreme fear, historic drawdowns, and market capitulation signals. They emphasize that despite short-term panic, fundamentals remain intact — with institutions, states like New Hampshire, and ETF providers continuing to build and accumulate. The discussion covers algorithmic trading pressure, overleveraged markets, and the “fastest bear market ever,” suggesting a rebound could be near. The team closes on a hopeful note, spotlighting Solana ETF inflows and reminding listeners that “nothing has changed with Bitcoin's fundamentals. Get my #1 altcoin pick for this month. Check out Plus500: https://plus500.comEfani Sim Swap Protection: Get $99 Off: http://efani.comcrypto101Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comCheck out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.com/cardThe Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. In order to qualify for the $200 crypto intro bonus, you must spend $3,000 in your first 90 days. Terms Apply. Some exclusions apply to instant rewards in which rewards are deposited when the transaction posts. This content is not investment advice and trading crypto involves risk. For more details on rates, fees, and other cost information, see Rates & Fees. The Gemini Credit Card may not be used to make gambling-related purchases.Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio for just $1.00 today! Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution" and start making big profits from buying, selling,Chapters00:00 — Intro: market volatility, community strength, and setup for the Bitcoin decline discussion.05:57 — Chart breakdown: historical Bitcoin drawdowns and perspective on volatility.09:16 — Bitcoin capitulation: 99% of short-term holders in loss; realized losses hit FTX-collapse levels.11:38 — Fear & Greed Index near record lows; extreme fear signals potential market bottom.16:17 — Macro overview: algorithmic trading, lack of clear recovery catalyst, and market overreactions.18:01 — Joe's macro take: leverage, AI bubble parallels, and retail vs institutional behavior.19:19 — RSI analysis: oversold levels similar to COVID and FTX lows, signaling possible bottom.23:46 — “Bitcoin is dead” chart discussion; Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan's upcoming interview teased.24:50 — Positive news: New Hampshire launches first Bitcoin-backed municipal bond.26:59 — Institutional adoption: Solana ETFs see 17 straight days of inflows despite price decline.MERCH STOREhttps://cryptorevolutionmerch.com/Subscribe to YouTube for Exclusive Content:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast?sub_confirmation=1Follow us on social media for leading-edge crypto updates and trade alerts:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101*This is NOT financial, tax, or legal advice*Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved  ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofrCreative Commons — Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported — CC BY-ND 3.0 Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZAROMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Our Sponsors:* Check out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.com/card* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

As market murmurs about an AI bubble, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets offers some perspective on the impacts of the increasing demand for debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at a very different type of challenge for credit markets. It's Friday, November 21st at 6pm in Singapore. It has now been well over 15 years since the Global Financial Crisis shook the credit markets to its very core. It's hard to state just how extreme that period was. How many usual relationships and valuation approaches broke. It saw the worst credit losses in 80 years; I think, and hope, that this record will hold for the next 80. This shock, however, did have a silver lining for the credit market. After a crisis that was driven by bank balance sheets being too large and complex, they shrank and simplified. After companies saw capital markets suddenly shut, they increased their cash levels and often managed themselves more conservatively. The housing market long, the engine of debt growth in the U.S. saw much tighter lending standards and less overall borrowing. And so, all these trends had a common theme. Less bond supply. The credit market has seen numerous bouts of volatility in the years since. But these have generally been driven by concerns around the macro economy, like the eurozone crisis or COVID. Or they've been driven by companies' specific issues such as weakness around the oil sector in the mid 2010s or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. The idea that there would be too much borrowing for the level of demand and that this causes market weakness, well, it just hasn't been an issue. Until – that is – now. As we've discussed on this program, there is an enormous increase underway in the amount of capital expenditure by technology companies as they look to build out the infrastructure that supports their cloud and AI ambitions. Morgan Stanley Equity Research estimates that the largest spenders will commit about $470 billion of spending this year and [$]620 billion of spending next year. That's over $1 trillion of spending in just a two-year period. And it's still growing. We see a lot of momentum behind this spending, as the companies doing it have both enormous financial resources and see it as central to their future ambitions. But all this spending, however, will need to come from somewhere. These are often very profitable companies and so we think about half will be funded from their cash flows. The other half, well, debt markets will play a big role, especially as these companies are often highly rated and so have significant capacity to borrow more. And over the last few weeks, those spigots have now turned on. Several large technology hyperscalers have been borrowing tens of billions at a clip, and they've been doing this in short succession. There is some good news here. This new borrowing has been coming at a discount, with the issuers willing to pay investors a bit more than their existing debt to take it on. Demand in turn has been very high for this debt. And in most cases, this borrowing is still well below anything that could feasibly trigger rating agency action. But it is raising a very different type of issue after a long period where, generally speaking, investors have rarely worried about excessive supply – these are very large deals coming at very large discounts, and they are moving the market. If a AA rated company is in the market willing to pay the same as a current single A, well, that existing single A credit just simply looks less attractive. As far as problems go, we think this is a generally less scary one for the market to face but is a new challenge – something we haven't encountered for some time. And based on the aforementioned spending plans, it may be with us for some time to come. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

In this week's solo episode, John Casmon steps away from guest interviews to break down one of the most misunderstood topics in multifamily investing: underwriting. After speaking at the Big Deal Summit in Columbus, John shares the real-world framework he uses to analyze deals—not just in spreadsheets, but in practice. From setting clear investment criteria to identifying operational inefficiencies, John walks through how successful investors combine vision, market insight, and execution to drive lasting results.     Make sure to download our free guide, 7 Questions Every Passive Investor Should Ask, here.     Key Takeaways Underwriting isn't about the spreadsheet—it's about the vision, people, and execution Always define your buy box and end goals before analyzing numbers Focus on markets with both macro strength and micro-level renter desirability Investors don't pay premiums for plumbing or electric—focus on visible value Operational inefficiencies are gold if you know how to identify and fix them Don't assume you can operate better than a seasoned owner without proof Stress test your assumptions: What happens if the plan breaks?     Topics The Real Goal of Underwriting Spreadsheets don't reflect operations—real estate is about people, not numbers Get clarity on what kind of asset and community you're trying to build Defining Your Buy Box Understand your own criteria before chasing ROI or IRR Why Cincinnati and surrounding markets meet John's standards for long-term growth Macro and Micro Market Selection How renter desirability shapes submarket selection Population growth ≠ renter demand—context matters Value-Add the Right Way Tenants won't pay more for new pipes—focus on kitchens, lighting, appliances Target properties with updated mechanicals so your upgrades actually add value Operational Inefficiencies to Look For Low occupancy, slow turn times, bloated expenses, and misaligned staffing Why seasoned operators aren't always "mismanaging"—stay humble Creating vs. Assuming Value Ask questions before opening a spreadsheet—what is the business plan? Don't guess your way through the numbers; know what levers create value Stress Testing the Deal Underwrite break-even points and failure scenarios Real story: How one business plan unraveled when resident profiles clashed Final Thoughts on Strategy Vision before budget—start with what you want to create IRR matters, but timing and exit assumptions often fail Know your buyer—plan your renovations around future investor demand    

On today's show we have a unique combination of two of the game's foremost thinkers and coaches Jon Sherman and Adam Young. They host the fabulous podcast 'The Sweet Spot' which I have been fortunate to be a guest on a few times. Adam Young is the author of the 'Practice Manual' and Jon Sherman is the author of 'Four Foundations of Golf' We had a fabulous conversation about how to REALLY make a difference to your game We discussed the Big Three of Impact The non negotiables Face Orientation Strike Location Ground Contact The difference between focusing on Micro and Macro in coaching How the genius lies with the student not the coach Why it is easier to sell a 'swing system' than giving the power to the student Know what you are signing up for if you are working on MACRO changes Getting to the 'scene of the crime' with impact Understanding the power of INTENTION Can you do the process as a student What is ACTUALLY happening at impact Keeping track of your impact patterns Being open to what you HAVE today as opposed to what you WISH you had Understanding how you need to change your questions to change your game. A ground breaking conversation with two wonderful coaches Are YOU going to be brave enough to keep it simple? To find out more about Adam Young go to https://www.adamyounggolf.com/ To find out about Jon Sherman go to https://practical-golf.com/ To become a Certified Mind Factor coach go to www.themindfactor.com To join us on the Mind Caddie journey go to www.mindcaddie.golf Shop with code : MINDFACTOR10 at checkout for 10% OFF your next order at www.fenixxcell.com @fenixxcell  

Vendredi 21 novembre, l'impact sur l'économie des dépenses et le risque systémique de l'IA, ont été abordés par Ana Boata, directrice de la recherche macroéconomique d'Allianz Trade, Denis Ferrand, directeur général de Rexecode, Sophie Chauvellier, gérante recherche économie et allocation d'actifs chez Dorval AM, et Léa Dunand-Chatellet, responsable de l'investissement responsable chez DNCA Finance, reçus par Marc Fiorentino dans l'émission C'est Votre Argent sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission le vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, and Joseph Incalcaterra, Head of LatAm Macro Strategy, look at what's in store for the major currencies in 2026.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/mFbXLNmStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

Buisnessman Eric Hovde, WMC's Scott Manley, State Rep Amanda Nedweski, Washington Examiner's Mike Brest, Judge Jim Troupis

Het Centraal Planbureau maakt zich zorgen over bedrijven die, in hun ogen, onterecht in leven blijven, en over nieuwe, gezonde ondernemingen die niet doorbreken. Dat staat in een deze week gepresenteerd rapport. Volgens macroeconoom Arnoud Boot komt dat rapport op een belangrijk moment. ‘De kabinetsformatie is in gang en voormalig ASML-ceo Peter Wennink brengt binnenkort zijn rapport uit.'

In this episode, Helen Amos is joined by BMO's Chief Economist Doug Porter to discuss the impact of big macro shifts on the metals and mining space. They talk everything from rate cuts, the US dollar, AI, de-dollarisation, global trade, and emerging market development. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Howell. They'll discuss the global liquidity cycle, why it has a 65-month periodicity, and where we stand in that cycle right now. https://bit.ly/3X7ZN0J  

Live from Morgan Stanley's Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026. In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market. It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists' base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026, In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followed by a recovery in the second half. Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. And as in recent years, global outcomes will likely hinge on U.S.-led effects and their spillovers. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves. A front-loaded rally as the Fed cuts 50 basis points, pushing 10-year yields lower by mid-year before drifting higher into the fourth quarter. Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve. The dollar follows a similar arc, softening mid-year, and then rebounding into the year end. AI financing moves to the forefront putting credit markets in focus, a topic that has come up repeatedly in every single meeting I've had in Singapore so far. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments. Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. 2025 was a tough year to navigate, and while we are constructive on 2026, it won't be a walk in the park. The challenges ahead look different. Less about macro shocks, more about micro shifts and market nuance. More details in our outlooks published just a few days ago. Thanks for listening If you like the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Policy rates will likely be cut three times in 2026, with the 10-year yield between 4-4.5%, says Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton. Dover is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss global fixed-income markets and cross-asset relative value. The trio discuss the economic outlook for 2026 and relative value in US rate markets and abroad amid expected policy easing from the Federal Reserve. They also hit on shifts in private assets and global equity markets, before discussing how AI narratives may evolve in the coming years.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Send us a textIn deze aflevering praat Ancilla van de Leest met Ab Flipse, Menno Broos, Bart Brands en Lydia Daniël.Menno Broos is projectleider van de invoering van de Digitale Euro en legt uit hoe het staat met de voortgang van de Digitale Euro (CBDC). Financieel adviseur Ab Flipse vertelt over de voor- en nadelen van Eurobonds ten tijde van oorlogsdreiging en overheidsbudgetten. Vrouwenrechtenactiviste Lydia Daniël informeert over de consequenties – met name voor vrouwen en kinderen - van de nieuwste LGBTIQ+-strategie. Macro-econoom en edelmetaal specialist Bart Brands vertelt over de turbulente financiële ontwikkelingen en de enorme prijsstijging van goud.Hier te beluisteren of te bekijken via: https://www.blckbx.tv/binnenland/blckbx-today-410-donderdag-20-novemberSupport the showWaardeer je deze video('s)? Like deze video, abonneer je op ons kanaal en steun de onafhankelijke journalistiek van blckbx met een donatieWil je op de hoogte blijven?Telegram - https://t.me/blckbxtvTwitter - / blckbxnews Facebook - / blckbx.tv Instagram - ...

Steeds meer private-equitypartijen kopen bedrijven in het MKB. Overnamespecialist Marktlink begeleidt ondernemers bij het vinden van een passende investeerder, maar wat is daarbij de beste aanpak? En: hoort het eigenlijk wel, als je als adviseur zelf eveneens geld in private equity stopt? Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Boardroompanel Verfmaker AkzoNobel gaat fuseren met Amerikaanse sectorgenoot Axalta. En: De kans is groot dat Tim Cook, topman van het Amerikaanse technologiebedrijf Apple, volgend jaar opstapt. Dat en meer bespreken we in het boardroompanel met: - Annemieke Roobeek, hoogleraar strategie- en transformatiemanagement aan de Nyenrode Business Universiteit. En Ageeth Telleman, oprichter van Ageeth Telleman, Bestuurs- en Organisatieadvies, lid van de raad van toezicht van topsport Amsterdam en voorzitter Raad van Toezicht ICK Dans Amsterdam. Luister l Boardroompanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Diego Puertas, analista de Serenity Markets, sigue de cerca los datos del empleo en EE.UU., los datos de precios de producción en Alemania y el sector inmobiliario en China.

Luke and Preston delve into America's financial fragility, exploring Treasury funding risks, shifting global power dynamics, and Fed policy challenges. They discuss the rising relevance of Bitcoin and gold amid liquidity constraints, and how economic missteps, tech sector bottlenecks, and geopolitical shifts may shape the future. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:37 - Why the U.S. faces a multi-pronged "poly crisis" despite strong tax receipts 00:02:20 - How short-term debt issuance is straining financial system liquidity 00:04:02 - Why Japan's bond and currency trends signal deeper global shifts 00:05:10 - The impact of U.S. shale decline and oil demand on inflation 00:12:18 - How hedge funds are absorbing Treasury debt—and why it matters 00:06:27 - The surprising risk factors in the tech sector like hyperscaler power limits 00:19:31 - The contradiction in U.S. housing policy and mortgage lengths 00:26:06 - Why Bitcoin and gold are diverging in investor appeal 00:49:16 - How global power shifts and sanctions are elevating gold's role Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.  BOOKS AND RESOURCES X Account: ⁠⁠Luke Gromen⁠⁠. Newsletter: ⁠⁠FFTT⁠⁠. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠⁠here⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: ⁠⁠Simple Mining⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠ ⁠⁠HardBlock⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Linkedin Talent Solutions⁠⁠ ⁠⁠reMarkable⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Netsuite⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Shopify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Onramp⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Vanta⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Public.com⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Abundant Mines⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Horizon⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Jeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin's price has been slipping and whether the market is actually signaling the start of a bear trend. Jeff explains the key forces driving sentiment — from liquidity pressures to global macro shifts — and why a slightly negative year for bitcoin might not be as bearish as it sounds.We also dig into what it would take for bitcoin to rip back toward the $125K–$150K range, plus how geopolitical dynamics in Japan, China, and elsewhere are shaping the broader investment landscape.======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.======================In this episode, Pomp spotlights easyBitcoin.app—the app that pays you 1% extra on recurring buys, 2% annual bitcoin rewards, and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it now for iOS or Android at https://easybitcoin.onelink.me/F1zP/klc4v1p8 and start earning today. Your capital is at risk. Crypto markets are highly volatile. This content is informational and not financial advice.======================Core is the leading Bitcoin scaling solution, enabling you to lock in yield by locking up your Bitcoin. Simply lock it on the Bitcoin blockchain to secure the Core network, and get rewards. No bridging. No lending. Just holding. Still your keys. Still your coins. Now your yield. Start at https://stake.coredao.org/pomp======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro1:50 – Why is bitcoin dropping? Should investors be worried?4:36 – Do technical levels like CME gaps actually matter?8:13 – Harvard's bitcoin position and how endowments invest12:15 – Has optionality changed bitcoin's market dynamics?15:14 – What Jeff is watching for real signs of optimism17:30 – Is the 4-year cycle officially dead?23:18 – Macro risks: liquidity, global conflict, & Trump premium25:56 – What would a true upside black swan look like?28:05 – How do you underwrite quantum risk today?

You know things are bad when nobody is going to Las Vegas, but that is just the tip of the economic iceberg, and the over-taxed American consumers have tickets aboard the Titanic. Warren Buffett is selling equities and stockpiling cash as a hedge against uncertainty, as well as future bargain hunting after the economic collapse decimates Western society.  SNAP benefits have been intergenerational in many cases, with entire family trees built upon complete government dependence and free handouts. With yearly totals exceeding $100 billion in the United States for food programs, and more than nine million Americans on Section 8 government assistance, the Ponzi scheme seems to be coming to a conclusion, and they never end well. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns to discuss rising market volatility, record gold & silver prices, concerning failures in the private credit industry & other signs of rising systemic stress.We talked about the growing stresses becoming increasingly evident in the AI ecosystem, private credit, sovereign debt (Japan), the jobs market, Bitcoin and elsewhere in society and the financial system.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#gold #marketcorrection #artificialintelligence _____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Today, a look at the confluence of pivotal market technicals and the big event risk of the earnings calendar tonight after the close: Nvidia. How will the market treat this? Also, it is worth spending a bit of time contemplating the macro implications of what is going on in Japan, its bond market and the coming fiscal package announcement on Friday. Macro, FX, US- and geopolitics and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed's recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle (05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth (09:43) Grayscale Ad (10:24) Impact of Fed's Hawkish Pivot (13:41) Recession Odds (16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy (20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7 (21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics (25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (29:28) Grayscale Ad (30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con't) (35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints (40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets (47:21) View on U.S. Equities (50:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Con el foco en las Actas de la FED, echamos un vistazo también a la tasa de inflación de Reino Unido y la Eurozona. Con Javier Ferrer, responsable de negocio de Tradition España.

Over de aflevering EasyToys-moederbedrijf EQOM Group heeft ambitieuze doelen. Europees marktleider worden, taboes doorbreken én zoveel mogelijk winst maken. Maar hoe concurreert het consortium met goedkope spullen uit China? En in hoeverre belemmeren taboes op seksualiteit de winstgevendheid van erotiekbedrijven? Anneke Kamphuis, ceo van EQOM Group is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Lobbypanel Hans Weijers was maar twintig uur formateur en er is een nieuwe Kamervoorzitter En: topambtenaren gaan naar China voor het comflict omtrent Nexperia. Valt daar wel wat te halen? Dat en meer bespreken we in het lobby-panel van BNR Zakendoen Luister l Lobbypanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this KE Report daily editorial, I am joined by Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group, to break down what's driving gold and silver as both metals consolidate near their highs. Jeff shares data-backed insights on ETF inflows, global equity trends, and new investor behavior shaping the precious metals market. Key Discussion Highlights: Record gold ETF inflows - Strong Q3 momentum with billions added globally; driven largely by short-term and momentum-oriented investors seeking liquidity. Shift to larger US-listed ETFs - Investors rotating out of smaller regional funds and into GLD/IAU for liquidity and regulatory confidence. Macro outlook supports higher investment demand - CPM Group expects rising geopolitical and economic stress into 2026, sustaining demand for gold and silver. New entrants emerging - Tether taking stakes in royalty companies and Elliott Management targeting Barrick highlight changing investor profiles. Silver near $50 faces real-world limits - Industrial users adjust at higher prices, capping runaway upside despite strong investment demand. Investors hedging, not selling - With gold near $4,000 and silver at $50, large investors prefer downside protection while holding core positions. Click here to visit the CPM Group website to learn more about the firm   ---------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?Serena Tang: In terms of, I think the strategy outlook itself, a big shift has been what we think drive investor focus the most. Our strategy mid-year outlook had focused heavily on global macro risks, right? Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier.I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it's very much more about asset specific stories. And yes, you know, to your point about being, bullish on U.S. equities, we've maintained that view this time round and believe that U.S. equities can generally do better than rest of world.As you know, Mike Wilson, a colleague and chief U.S. equity strategist, he has a price target of 7800 for the S&P 500 index …Seth Carpenter: Wow.Serena Tang: Beating the expected returns from other regional equities by like quite a bit. So that's not changed. But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we've also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier.I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy. But there's also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay. So, as you're coming up with these strategies and these recommendations in lots of ways, it just relies on forecasting. And I have to say I'm sympathetic to how hard forecasting is, especially when it comes to the future. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy.So, with that as a backdrop, nothing is for sure. But where would you say your highest conviction calls are when it comes to investing in 2026?Serena Tang: Well, as I mentioned, we like U.S. equities and that remains a very high conviction call for us. [I] sort of dug through the details of that already. And so, I want to turn to a[n]other high conviction view, which is curve steepening. We see pretty material U.S. treasury curve steepening over the next year. I think even as a macro strategist, actually expect yields at least in the backend to be mostly range bound. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.Seth Carpenter: So that's super helpful in terms of the places where you're convicted. Let me be perhaps a little bit unfair because nothing is in fact certain. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there've got to be things where we're either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say?Serena Tang: So, one of them really is AI investment cycle abruptly ending. And this has been a topic of huge debate in all of the investor meetings that we've had over the last several weeks. Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. And of course that would likely pressure U.S. equities, I think given hyperscalers index weight. But could weirdly enough benefit IG credit by reducing issuance, which has been the main driver of wider spreads in our forecast. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it's not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view.Given, I think there's still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns.The last risk, I think, to our asset allocation, is really the Fed. Either the FOMC not easing further over the next 12 months or if it changes its reaction function. And I think both of those will have very different implications of what happens to the front end of the yield curve. So, my question to you, Seth, is what do you see as the probability around both of those scenarios?Seth Carpenter: Look, with the data that we have before the government shut down, it was clear there was a tension. Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. Employment data were getting weaker and weaker, and the Fed has decided to start cutting to err on the side of insulating against further deterioration in the labor market.So, one thing that could upend our forecast is that the real signal is from the spending. Spending stays strong, the labor market eventually catches up to the stronger spending, and we start to see job gains come back. If that happens, especially with inflation now running notably above the Fed's target, I just don't really think we're going to get anywhere near the number of rate cuts that we forecast or that are already priced into market. So, you'd have to see a reversal.How likely is that you can't rule it out? I'd say 20 percent or something like that. Maybe a little bit more. On the other hand, to the downside. I wonder if what you're getting at a little bit is there's going to be some turnover in the personnel at the Fed. And do we have to worry about a fundamentally different reaction function from the Fed going forward and cutting rates aggressively, even if the macro considerations don't warrant? Is that really what you were getting at?Serena Tang: Yes. I think that has been the question on the forefront of investors' minds…Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I think that's a real question. The way I look at it is Chair Powell is in charge of the Fed now. His term goes through May of next year. And so, until we get to the middle of next year, I don't really think there's any fundamental change in how the Fed does business. But it really does seem like we're going to have a new Fed chair in June of next year. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that's how policy is decided. And so, if there was a new chair who really, really, really wanted to take policy in a truly unorthodox way, I also don't think that's really feasible over the second half of next year – because there just won't have been that much turnover in terms of the personnel of the Fed. That's how we're looking at it for now. I really don't think that latter version of the world is a big risk. That said, I'm going to throw it back to you [be]cause I always have to get the last word.You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. But one thing I didn't hear – and we do have a global investor base – Is about currencies and specifically the dollar.So, this time last year, the team made a pretty bold call that the dollar would depreciate a great deal. And here we are and the dollar has come off a lot on net over this year. That stabilized a little bit. Maybe not for the whole year [be]cause that kind of forecasting is hard for currencies. But what do you see over the next few months called the next half year for the dollar? Is it going to continue the trend or do you think we should see a reversal?Serena Tang: So, we do think the dollar will continue its trend downwards from here to the middle of next year. And I know, I know. There's been a lot of discussion, there's been a lot of debate around whether the dollar has basically stopped where we are. But the thing is, you know, going back to what you mentioned around the path for growth in the U.S. and unemployment in the U.S. – if we do see softer economic data in the first half of next year, that can drive the dollar downwards. In fact, we're once again, more bearish than consensus on the dollar by the middle of next year.Seth Carpenter: Got it. All right. That's super helpful. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.Serena Tang: Always a pleasure, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I'm pleased to welcome back Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V. Our conversation centers on one of the most consequential themes in markets today: the intersection of artificial intelligence, exponential innovation, and market structure. With Nvidia's historic rise as a backdrop and AI's increasing integration into every sector, Jordi pushes back on the tendency to label this cycle a “bubble,” arguing that AI is more akin to electricity — an enabling technology whose applications will permeate everyday life. Demand for compute remains effectively infinite, he notes, and the supply shortfalls in GPUs, data centers, and power capacity shape how investors should think about the buildout phase.Jordi also lays out a framework for navigating volatility in sectors tied to AI buildout — including how to handle 20–30% drawdowns — and why estimate revisions matter more than multiple expansion from here. Beyond markets, we explore the labor dynamics of exponential technology: the K-shaped economy, margin pressure at retailers, and why he believes labor participation will keep drifting lower even without mass layoffs.Finally, we examine the policy environment. Here Jordi asserts that the Fed's framework is backward looking and misses how humanoids, robotaxis, and accelerated drug discovery may drive deflationary pressures.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jordi Visser.

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point8:10 Are we past the point of no return?9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs34:04 Bitcoin39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario42:00 Lessons from David Swensen45:19 Closing remarks

John Muller, Andres Rodriguez, Luis Vicente Munoz, Ignacio Rodriguez Burgos y Rafa Latorre repasan la actualidad economica del dia.

Olivia Álvarez, analista de AFI, sigue de cerca los datos del paro de EE.UU., la previsión del PIB para 2025 y las declaraciones de la ministra japonesa de Finanzas.

Roelof Hofman (DHL Benelux) over de aankomende decemberdrukte Sinterklaas is in het land, Black Friday staat voor de deur én als dat allemaal achter de rug is begint Kerst! Voor pakketbezorgers betekent dit vooral aanpoten, want al die pakketjes moeten allemaal zo snel mogelijk op de plaats van bestemming aankomen. Hoe gaat DHL om met die enorme bezorgpiek? Te gast is Roelof Hofman, operationeel directeur Benelux bij DHL eCommerce is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggerspanel Nvidia komt morgen met nieuwe cijfers, maar kan het duurste beursfonds ter wereld de torenhoge verwachtingen nog waarmaken of barst de bubbel? En: Sinds 2022 steeg het aantal nieuwe ETF beleggers met bijna 200 procent, vooral door vrouwen en jongeren. Luister Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Policy Seminar | IFPRI Policy Seminar Trading the Crosswinds: Macroeconomic Outlook, Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Agricultural Commodity Markets Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) November 18, 2025 Prospects for global grain and oilseed production remain broadly favorable, but the agricultural trade environment continues to face significant uncertainties. Trade policy developments—including the potential for retaliatory measures—are reshaping traditional trade flows and creating challenges for market participants. These shifts are occurring alongside broader macroeconomic factors such as currency movements, rising energy prices, and demand fluctuations, all of which add complexity to global supply chains. Join us for this seminar featuring the World Bank's latest Commodity Market Outlook, which will offer insights into the macroeconomic drivers influencing agricultural trade and price dynamics. It will include an update on short-term market fundamentals for wheat, maize, and soybeans, highlighting key developments and potential risks. Industry representatives and traders from various regions will also share how they are responding to uncertainty through risk management strategies, adjustments, and other adaptations to the evolving trade landscape. Opening Remarks Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary Macroeconomic Outlook Shaping Agricultural Trade and Prices John Baffes, Senior Agriculture Economist, Development Economics Prospects Group, World Bank Summary of Short-term Developments on Wheat, Maize, and Soybean Markets Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist, International Grains Council Panel Discussion Moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary and Valeria Piñeiro, Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), IFPRI Scott Gerlt, Chief Economist, American Soybean Association (ASA) Dmytro Furda, Commercial Director, Tiryaki Agro (Turkiye) Raphael Blanc Vieira, Commercial Director, Agribrasil Ole Houe, Chair, Grain Trade Australia Closing Remarks Valeria Piñeiro, Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), IFPRI More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/trading-the-crosswinds-macroeconomic-outlook-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-agricultural-commodity-markets/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

El Consejo de Ministros prevé hoy aprobar la senda de déficit público 2026-2028 y el techo de gasto para los Presupuestos de 2026, además de la actualización del cuadro macro. El presidente ucraniano, Volodímir Zelenski, visita hoy de nuevo España para reforzar la ayuda que recibe su país ante la agresión rusa. El canciller, Friedrich Merz, afirma que los alemanes deberán trabajar más tiempo.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tony Zhang, Blaine Reed and Rich Excell are back to discuss the macro that matters for the markets.  The latest narratives driving markets are the usual - AI and rates - and the new - job losses and affordability.   Can Fed rate cuts help job losses from AI? Have a listen to find out

Host Merryn Somerset Webb speaks to Jim Reid, head of Macro and Thematic Research at Deutsche Bank, to unpack why too much cash is risky over the long run and why starting valuations drive real investment outcomes. They dig into 200 years of data on equities versus cash, the role of 60/40 portfolios, gold’s surprising century and today’s artificial intelligence-fueled market dynamics—with practical pointers on cheap versus expensive markets and time horizons. Find the report here: https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000607211 Don't forget to sign up for our live podcast taping in London on November 27:https://go.bloomberg.com/attend/invite/post-budget-merryn-talks-money/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

October inflation surprised on the downside in just over half of the major countries that have reported numbers so far. There was no number for the US, due to the government shutdown, but, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, other indicators point to a rate of around 3%, with some upside risk. Investec Focus Radio SA

DOWNLOAD KEYNOTE SLIDES DOWNLOAD SERMON SUMMARY   SERMON SUMMARY (by OpenAI) Ministry in the Margins: How Small Acts Have Eternal Impact By Pastor Bryan Hudson, D.Min. Matthew 25:31 “When the Son of Man comes in His glory, and all the holy angels with Him, then He will sit on the throne of His glory. 32 All the nations will be gathered before Him, and He will separate them one from another, as a shepherd divides his sheep from the goats. 33 And He will set the sheep on His right hand, but the goats on the left. 34 Then the King will say to those on His right hand, ‘Come, you blessed of My Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world: 35 for I was hungry and you gave Me food; I was thirsty and you gave Me drink; I was a stranger and you took Me in; 36 I was naked and you clothed Me; I was sick and you visited Me; I was in prison and you came to Me.' 37 “Then the righteous will answer Him, saying, ‘Lord, when did we see You hungry and feed You, or thirsty and give You drink? 38 When did we see You a stranger and take You in, or naked and clothe You? 39 Or when did we see You sick, or in prison, and come to You?' 40 And the King will answer and say to them, ‘Assuredly, I say to you, inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.'   1. Introduction: Jesus will separate those who served from those who did not. Dr. Hudson opens with Matthew 25, where Jesus describes the Son of Man returning in glory, separating people like a shepherd divides sheep and goats. This passage reveals how God evaluates lives—not by spectacle or prominence, but by compassionate actions taken toward “the least of these.” Jesus lists personal, human-scale acts: Feeding the hungry Giving drink to the thirsty Welcoming the stranger Clothing the naked Visiting the sick Ministering to the imprisoned The righteous are surprised—they don't remember doing these things for Jesus. But He replies: “Inasmuch as you did it to the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.” This text reveals Christ's heart for people and His identification with the marginalized. 2. Two Levels of Ministry: Macro & Micro Dr. Hudson explains that Jesus operated at two simultaneous levels: A. Macro (Big Picture) The “40,000-foot view” God enthroned in heaven Christ coming in glory with angels The sweeping rule of God over all creation Jesus doing “big things”—miracles, world-changing acts This is the majestic, transcendent dimension of Christ's ministry. B. Micro (Personal & Individual) Jesus noticing one hungry person One thirsty person One stranger One sick or imprisoned person One woman touching His garment One boy with a small lunch The same King who rules the universe also sees individual people in need. "Jesus sees you right where you are.” Christ never stops seeing the person while seeing the big picture. The Problem With People Who Only See Macro Some people only want big, impressive ministry. They become “legends in their own minds.” But without micro-vision—tenderness, compassion, awareness—you cannot truly minister to people.   3. What God Actually Pays Attention To Dr. Hudson stresses that we live in a culture fascinated by entertainment, showmanship, and spectacle. But: God is not impressed with big platforms or big productions. God does not measure greatness the way people do. God pays attention to people and their conditions, especially those who are suffering. Illustration: Prison Ministry Prison ministry strips away props, technology, and fanfare. You can't take your laptop, phone, Apple Watch, or screens. You go in with: A Bible A simple watch Glasses A few notes And Jesus in your heart This is micro-level ministry—core, simple, compassionate. God pays attention to that. 4. A Big God Who Sees and Uses Small Things A. God Sees Small Things Luke 12:6–7 – God cares about sparrows and numbers every hair on your head. Jesus regularly highlights small acts of faith, not big personalities. B. God Uses Small Things Biblical examples: A boy's small lunch (loaves & fishes) Rahab's small but courageous lie to protect the spies David's sling and five smooth stones Samson's donkey's jawbone The woman's touch of Jesus' garment Gideon's 300 soldiers A man loaning Jesus his donkey All small acts. All with massive impact. C. God Uses Simple Things Especially in ministry to the marginalized—juvenile centers, prisons, people at the margins of society. Simplicity reveals Christ most clearly.   5. Ministry in the Margins: The Meaning of “Margins” The sermon uses the metaphor of a book: The text is the main content—where “most people” live. The margin is outside the center—where people feel unseen, unwelcome, or displaced. Some people live in the margins because: Society pushes them there They don't fit expected norms They experience hardship, injustice, or lack They aren't embraced by the “main text” Jesus, however, identifies with people in the margins. He says: “I was hungry… I was thirsty… I was a stranger…” He does not say “they were hungry.” Jesus dignifies the marginalized by identifying with them personally. Christ's Identification With the Marginalized Jesus Himself: Was never literally sick or imprisoned Was never homeless in the modern sense But He chooses to identify with those who are. Why? Because if you are trapped in the same condition yourself, you cannot lift someone else out. He identifies so He can elevate. 6. The Problem in American Christianity Dr. Hudson warns against a version of Christianity obsessed with: Power Privilege Proximity to the wealthy Cultural influence Celebrity preachers “Macro-only ministry” The Gospel calls us back to the heart of Christ—a heart that sees the hungry, thirsty, undocumented, imprisoned, and sick. As his grandfather preached: “You got what you wanted, but lost what you had.” 7. Macro & Micro Together in Scripture Examples: Proverbs 16:9 Macro: A man plans his way Micro: The Lord directs his steps James 2:14 Macro: Faith Micro: Works Both are required. 8. Sheep vs. Goats: A Call to Be a Sheep A. Sheep Characteristics Gentle Stay close together Easily follow the shepherd Respect boundaries Stay where God places them Ready to inherit the kingdom because they've been walking with the King B. Goat Characteristics Wander into danger Break boundaries Independent Do their own thing Resist leadership Not oriented to the flock Self-willed This explains the behavior of many people. C. Why Sheep Inherit the Kingdom Not because God “picked” them that day, but because: They were already aligned with Christ Their lives consistently reflected His compassion Their hearts were shaped by love, not self-service “Be a sheep and not a goat.” 9. Final Exhortation: God's Kingdom Is Love in Action Jesus separates people not by: Religion Church attendance Public image Size of ministry Amount of Bible knowledge But by compassion expressed toward others. Two realities: The unrighteous (goats) face judgment for indifference and self-service. The righteous (sheep) inherit the kingdom because they carry the King's heart. “Faith works through love.” — Galatians 5:6   10. Closing Prayer Themes Gratitude for the Word Correction and reorientation of our attitudes Desire to reflect the compassion of Christ Awareness that God sees even sparrows—and certainly sees us Thankfulness for people who care and serve quietly A commitment to be sheep, not goats A call to draw close to Jesus and His heart for the marginalized One-Sentence Summary This sermon teaches that while God is great and majestic (macro), He pays the closest attention to small, compassionate acts done for people in the margins (micro), and those who consistently walk in such compassion—His “sheep”—are the ones who inherit His kingdom.

Después de más de un mes de cierre de gobierno, poco a poco vamos conociendo referencias macro en EE.UU. Diego Barnuevo, analista de Ebury, destaca lo más relevante de la sesión.

The American education system is a trap. For those who fall into it and are looking for an exit, there are amazing options available for parents to take control of this important situation. Staying inside a broken government indoctrination system that fails on every level to prepare students for life is no longer acceptable. Brett Pike's Classical Learner curriculum has helped thousands of parents make the move into homeschooling, while developing a tight network and amazing resources. These days, if you want an education worthy of freedom, you will have to go out and take it.  — Above Phone | Black Friday Sale: https://abovephone.com/activistpost/ — Guest Links: Brett Pike: www.ClassicalLearner.com  Promo Code: MACRO — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

The founder of Autonomy Unlimited, Richard Grove, is back to explain what he has learned from running 10 seasons of the program, and how the students have benefitted from the network built over the years. With hard times on the horizon, the discussion turns to what people can do to brace for what is heading our way, and how to prosper from the opportunities that will present themselves in the future. With banks on the edge of collapse, the sooner people reevaluate their relationship with them, the better off they will be for what is heading our way. — Guest: Richard Grove Grand Theft World Podcast: https://grandtheftworld.com/ Autonomy Courses: Autonomy Unlimited ChatGPT Course Trivium Method Permaculture — Subscribe to the Macroaggressions Video Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Today, we cover the very ugly day for US equity markets, with the selling quite broad, but most concentrated in AI-related and crypto-related names as the latter is in a real funk and suggests poor liquidity. With Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, we pick out several names to discuss including Oracle and Disney. Also, we look to next Wednesday's Nvidia earnings report as the next critical event risk for this market, noting other big retail names reporting in the US as well, including Walmart. Macro, FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed's dilemma, AI's real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.Topics covered:• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending• The Fed's policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternativesTimestamps:00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They'll discuss everything from the reopening rally to precious metals to energy markets. https://bit.ly/49SQx89  

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Our dependency on technology has always been an Achilles' Heel for the Western world, as people become less self-sufficient and more dependent on the State to solve their problems. If the Parasite Class wishes to rule over humanity with digital chains, they will need to control five segments of society first. Our communication has been under surveillance forever, but now they have set their sights on controlling digital health through the Internet of Bodies. Privacy is under attack, and the banking system is a house of cards looking for a reason to topple over. Once that happens, it won't be long before the military steps in to settle things down. Digital problems with analog and authoritarian solutions. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —