Podcasts about Macro

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Best podcasts about Macro

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Latest podcast episodes about Macro

Macroaggressions
#601: Living Life Under Digital ID | Hakeem Anwar

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2025 64:39


Digital ID is being promoted globally in a coordinated manner by technocrats and politicians, with guidance from the United Nations, and funding from the Gates Foundation and other NGOs. Trying to live an analog life moving forward will become increasingly more difficult, as those who opt out will face incredible hardships.Hakeem Anwar, founder of Above Phone, is back to discuss his free “Life Under Digital ID” report, which details the global push towards collecting biometric information. Half the world's population is already living under a digital ID system, just in China and India, but the EU is moving in that direction, as is America. There are ways to prevent this, but the window is closing.—Guest Links: Hakeem Anwar Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/activistpost/Take Back Our Tech: https://takebackourtech.org/—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

PetaPixel Photography Podcast
Ep. 481: Guinea Pigs Are Useful and This Proves It – and more

PetaPixel Photography Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2025 43:39


Episode 481 of the Lens Shark Photography Podcast In This Episode If you subscribe to the Lens Shark Photography Podcast, please take a moment to rate and review us to help make it easier for others to discover the show. Sponsors: - Build Your Legacy with Fujifilm. Latest savings at FujfilmCameraSavings.com - Shop with the legends at RobertsCamera.com, and unload your gear with UsedPhotoPro.com - Big savings at participating retailers and at Calibrite.com. - Save 20% at BenroUSA.com with code SHARKY2025. - More mostly 20% OFF codes at LensShark.com/deals. Stories: Sony releases firmware updates…then pulls one. (#) This super fast 50 is fairly affordable. (#) This new tool is useful, but so are these. (#) (#) (#) The Laowa 35mm f/2.8 Zero-D Tilt-Shift .5x Macro. (#) Dynamic range in this body is excellent. (#) A retro lens clearly inspired by a classic from the past. (#)   Connect With Us Thank you for listening to the Lens Shark Photography Podcast! Connect with me, Sharky James on Twitter, Instagram Vero, and Facebook (all @LensShark).

The Napzok Files
Micro Changes, Macro Thoughts | A Monday Morning Show

The Napzok Files

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2025 18:46


It's A Monday Morning Show -- Ken gets ready for his week, looks back on his past week, and we all try to figure it out together.Get Ken's Comedy Album ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠IN MY DAY⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Purchase Ken's book ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Why We Love Stars: The Great Moments That Built A Galaxy Far, Far Away.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enjoy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Moonagers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠kennapzok.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Mind Pump: Raw Fitness Truth
2744: How to Track Macros the Right Way (According to Pros)

Mind Pump: Raw Fitness Truth

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2025 95:37


Get 50% off a Reverse Dieting Strategy call with a Mind Pump coach. (Through Dec 6th) Visit: ⁠http://www.reversedietcall.com/⁠ ** Code DECEMBER50 at checkout ** Mind Pump Fit Tip: The Do's and Don'ts of Macro tracking. (2:00) Illustrating why it's important to understand ALL factors in a study. (22:10) Glistening beard. (32:37) Male models and awkward photo shoots. (35:57) Not just an athleisure wear company anymore. (53:47) An EXTREME example of how human reason falls apart without objective morality. (56:13) #ListenerCoaching call #1 – What is the best program to add an inch to my arms? (1:03:36) #ListenerCoaching call #2 – How can I get my body to respond? I'm not as active as I once was, and I need help with the way I feel. (1:10:50) #ListenerCoaching call #3 – A story of redemption after a near-death experience. Trusting the process after years of living in a cycle of extremes. (1:25:29) Related Links/Products Mentioned Get Coached by Mind Pump, live! Visit https://www.mplivecaller.com Visit Caldera Lab for an exclusive offer for Mind Pump listeners! **Code MINDPUMP20 for 20% off your first order of their best products. ** Visit Vuori Clothing for an exclusive offer for Mind Pump listeners! ** No code to receive 20% off your first order. ** Get 50% off a Reverse Dieting Strategy call with a Mind Pump coach. (Through Dec 6th) Visit: http://www.reversedietcall.com/ ** Code DECEMBER50 at checkout ** Mind Pump Store Mind Pump #2160: Macro Counting Master Class MAPS Macro Calculator Intentional Weight Gain Strategies in Young Adult Athletic Individuals Florida man arrested after UK woman allegedly pays him to torture, kill her: Affidavit Unlock sharper focus and support long-term brain health with Ketone-IQ—clean brain fuel for deep work, mental clarity, and sustained energy with no crash. Get 30% off your subscription, plus a free gift with your second shipment at https://ketone.com/MINDPUMP Occlusion Training Guide | MAPS Fitness Products Mind Pump #2690: The NEW DIET Everyone Is Using For Fat Loss Sal Di Stefano's Journey in Faith & Fitness – Mind Pump TV Mind Pump Podcast – YouTube Mind Pump Free Resources People Mentioned Phil Heath (@philheath) Instagram ZUBY (@zubymusic) Instagram  

Macroaggressions
Flashback Friday | #446: The Head Of The Snake

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2025 67:34


People always want to know who runs the world. Sometimes the answer is not as straightforward as naming one person or a family dynasty, but we will attempt to cover the most dangerous of the groups that work together in order to lay the groundwork for a world government.The Mega Group, 1001 Club, Le Cercle, and the Committee of 300 are never mentioned anywhere in the mainstream media because they do not want the public to know what they are working on. Are we watching the reconstitution of the Holy Roman Empire and the framework of the Greater Israel Project taking shape at the same time as a fourth turning? Time to pay attention.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Thoughts on the Market
AI Rewrites the Retail Playbook

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2025 13:49


Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, our analysts discuss how AI is reshaping the future of shopping in the U.S.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance. Today's episode is the second part of our live discussion of the U.S. consumer and how AI is changing consumer companies. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst. It's Friday, December 5th at 10am in New York. So, Simeon, I want to start with you. You recently put out a piece assessing the AI race. Can you take us through how you're assessing current AI implementation? And can you give us some real-world examples of what it looks like when a company significantly integrates AI into their business? Simeon Gutman: Sure. So, the Consumer Discretionary and Staples teams went to each of their covered companies, and we started searching for what those companies have disclosed and communicated regarding their AI. In some cases, we used AI to do this search. But we created a search and created this universe of factors and different ways AI is being implemented. We didn't have a framework until we had the entire universe of all of these AI use cases. Once we did, then we were able to compartmentalize them. And the different groups; we came up with six groups that we were able to cluster. First, personalization and refined search; second, customer acquisition; third product innovation; fourth, labor productivity; fifth, supply chain and logistics. And lastly, inventory management. And using that framework, we were able to rank companies on a 1 to 10 scale. Across – that was the implementation part – across three different dimensions: breadth, how widely the AI is deployed across those categories; the depth, the quality, which we did our best to be able to interpret. And then the last one was proprietary initiatives. So, that's partnerships, could be with leading AI firms. So that helped us differentiate the leaders with others, not necessarily laggards, but those who were ahead of in the race. In some cases, companies that have communicated more would naturally scream more, so there is some potential bias in that. But otherwise, the fact pattern was objective. Walmart has full scale AI deployment. They're integrated across their business. They've introduced GenAI tools. That's like their Sparky shopping assistant. As well as integrated to in-store features. They talked about it. It's been driving a 25 percent increase in average shopper spend. They've recently partnered with OpenAI to enable ChatGPT powered Search and Checkout, positioning where the company, where the customer is shopping. They're also layering on augmented reality for holiday shopping, computer vision for shelf monitoring. LLMs for inventory replenishment. Autonomous lifts, the list goes on and on. But it covers all the functional categories in our framework. Michelle Weaver: And how about a couple examples of the ways companies are using these? Any interesting real world use cases you've seen so far? Simeon Gutman: So, one of them was in marketing personalization, as well as in product cataloging. That was one of the more sided themes at this conference. So, it was good timing. So, the idea is when product is staged on a company's website; I don't think we all appreciate how much time and many hours and people and resources it takes to get the correct information, to get the right pictures and to show all the assortment – those type of functions AI is helping enable. And it sounds like we're on the cusp of a step change in personalization. It sounds like AI, machine learning or algorithm driven suggestions to consumers. We didn't get practical use cases, but a lot of companies talked about the deployment of this into 2026, which sounds like it's something to look forward to. Michelle Weaver: And Megan, how would you describe AI adoption in your space in terms of innings and what kind of criteria are you using to assess the future for AI opportunity and potential? Megan Clapp: Yeah, I would say; I'd characterize adoption in the Food and broader Staples space today is still relatively early innings. I think most companies are still standing up the data infrastructure, experimenting with various tools. We're seeing companies pilot early use cases and start to talk about them, and that was evident in the work we did with the note that Simeon just talked about. And so, the opportunity, I think, going ahead, lies in kind of what we see in terms of scaling those pilots to become more impactful. And for Staples broadly, and Food, you know, ties into this. I think, these companies start with an advantage and that they sit on a tremendous amount of high frequency consumption data. So, the data availability is quite large. The question now is, you know, can these large organizations move with speed and translate that data into action? And that's something that we're focused on when we think about feasibility. I think we think about the opportunity for Food and Staples broadly as we'd put it into kind of two areas. One is what can they do on the top line? Marketing, innovation, R&D, kind of the lifeblood of CPG companies, and that's where we're seeing a lot of the early use cases. I think ultimately that will be the most important driver – driving top line, you know, tends to be the most important thing in most consumer companies. But then on the other side, there are a lot of cost efforts, supply chain savings, labor productivity. Those are honestly a bit easier to quantify. And we're seeing real tangible things come out of that. But overall I think the way we think about it is the large companies with scale and the ability to go after the opportunity because they have the scale and the balance sheet to do so – will be winners here, as well as the smaller, more nimble companies that, you know, can move a little bit faster. And so that's how we're thinking about the opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Can you give us also just a couple examples of AI adoption that's been successful that you've seen so far? Megan Clapp: Yeah, so on the top line side, like I said, kind of marketing innovation, R&D. One quick example on the Food side. Hershey, for example, they're using algorithms to reallocate advertising spend by zip code, based on the real time sell through. So, they can just be much more targeted and more efficient, honestly, with that advertising spend. I think from an innovation perspective too, these companies are able to identify on trend things faster and incorporate that and take the idea to shelf time down significantly. And then on the cost side, you know, General Mills is a company is actually relatively, far ahead, I'd say, in the AI adoption curve in Staples broadly. And what they've done is deployed what they call digital twins across their network, and it has improved forecast accuracy. They've taken their historical productivity savings from 4 percent annually to 5 percent. That's something that's structural. So, seeing real tangible benefits that are showing up in the PNL. And so, I think broadly the theme is these companies are using AI to make faster, and more precise decisions. And then I thought, I'd just mention on the leisure side, something that I felt was interesting that we learned from Shark Ninja yesterday at the conference is – when asked about the role of Agentic AI in future commerce, thinks it'll be huge was how he described; the CEO described it. And what they're doing actively right now is optimizing their D2C website for LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini. And his point was that what drives conversion on D2C today may not ultimately be what ranks on AI driven search. But he said the expectation is that by Christmas of next year, commerce via these AI platforms will be meaningful; mentioned that OpenAI is already experimenting with curated product transactions. So, they're really focused on optimizing their portfolio. He thinks brands will win; but you have got to get ahead of it as well. Michelle Weaver: And that's great that you just brought up Agentic commerce. We've heard about it quite a bit over the past couple of days, Simeon. And I know you recently put out a big piece on this theme. Agentic commerce introduces a lot of possibility for incremental sales, but it also introduces the possibility for cannibalization. Where do you see this shaking out in your space? Are you really concerned about that cannibalization possibility? Simeon Gutman: Yeah, so the larger debate is a little bit of sales cannibalization and a potential bit of retail media cannibalization. So, your first point is Agentic theoretically opens up a bigger e-commerce penetration and just more commerce. And once you go to more e-commerce, that could be beneficial for some of these companies. We can also put the counter argument of when e-commerce came, direct-to-consumer type of selling could disintermediate the captive retailer sales again. Maybe, maybe not. Part of this answer is we created a framework to think about what retailers can protect themselves most from this. Two of them; two of the five I's are infrastructure and inventory. So, the more that your inventory is forward position, the more infrastructure you have; the AI and the agent will still prioritize that retailer within that network. That business will likely not go elsewhere. And that's our premise. Now, retail media is a different can of worms. We don't know what models are going to look like. How this interaction will take place? We don't know who controls the data. The transactions part of this conference is we were hearing, ‘Well, the retailers are going to control some of the data and the transaction.' Will consumers feel comfortable giving personal information, credit card to agents? I'm sure at some point we'll feel comfortable, but there are these inertia points and these are models that are getting worked out today. There's incentives for the hyperscalers to be part of this. There's incentive for the retailers to be part of it. But we ultimately don't know. What we do know is though forward position inventory is still going to win that agent's business if you need to get merchandise quickly, efficiently. And if it's a lot of merchandise at once. Think about the largest platforms that have been investing in long tail of product and speed to getting it to that consumer. Michelle Weaver: And Arunima, I want to bring this back to the macro as well. As AI adoption starts to ramp the labor market then starts to get called into question. Is this going to be automation or is it going to be augmentation as you see a ramp in AI adoption? So how are your expectations for AI being factored into your forecast and what are you expecting there? Arunima Sinha: There are two ways that we think about just sort of AI spending mattering for our growth forecasts. One part is literally the spend, the investment in the data centers and the chips and so on. And then the other is just the rise in productivity. So, does the labor or does the human capital become more productive? And if we sum both of those things together, we think that over 2026 – [20]27, they add anywhere between 40-45 basis points to growth. And just to put things in perspective, our GDP growth estimate for the end of this year in 2026 is 1.8 percent. For 2027, it's 2.0 percent. So, it's an important part of that process. In terms of the labor market itself, the work that you have led, as well as the work that we've been doing – which is this question about adoption at the macro level, that's still fairly low. We look at the census data that tracks larger companies or mid-size companies on a monthly basis to say, ‘How much did you use AI tools in the last couple of weeks.' And that's been slowly increasing, but it's still sort of in the mid-teens in terms of how many companies have been using as a percentage. And so, we think that adoption should continue to increase. And as that does, for now, we think it is going to be a compliment to labor. Although there are some cohorts within sort of demographic cohorts in terms of ages that are probably going to be disproportionately impacted, but we don't think that that's a sort of near term 2026 story. Michelle Weaver:  Well, thank you all for joining us and please follow Thoughts on the Market wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you to our panel participants for this engaging discussion and to our live and podcast audiences. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Dynasty Fantasy Football - Under The Helmet
Mark Andrews' New Contract, Dynasty Value, Macro-Micro Profile

Dynasty Fantasy Football - Under The Helmet

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2025 23:57


Mark Andrews' new contract, his macro and micro profiles, and dynasty market value. Get 400+ premium podcasts by signing up at www.UTHDynasty.com as a General Manager PLUS subscriber. Also, get access to exclusive shows and deep data dive content from Chad Parsons (and a VIP Chat with the best dynasty owners on the planet) by signing up as an All-Pro at www.Patreon.com/UTH. Thanks for listening, and keep building those dynasties! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Thinking Crypto Interviews & News
Bitwise's HUGE Launch of XRP, Solana, & Dogecoin ETFs! with Matt Hougan

Thinking Crypto Interviews & News

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2025 27:59 Transcription Available


Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, joined me to discuss the launch of their XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin Spot ETFs.Topics: - XRP, Solana Staking, and Dogecoin ETFs - Is the crypto bull market over? - Outlook for crypto in 2026 - DATS vs ETFs Brought to you by

Macro Voices
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026

Macro Voices

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 72:05


MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Marko Papic. We'll discuss the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, the impacts of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal on markets, the spat between Japan and China, and the U.S. mid-term election cycle, considering the market impacts of all these developments. https://bit.ly/442T5gw   Register for Big Picture Trading's asymmetric challenge here: https://www.bigpicturetrading.com/challenge   

The Pomp Podcast
What Happens to Bitcoin When the Fed Finally Cuts? | Darius Dale

The Pomp Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 29:13


Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we break down the growing divisions inside the Federal Reserve, the real odds of a December rate cut, and who may lead the Fed next. Darius explains how Fed policy is moving asset prices in every direction and why markets are pricing something very different from what the Fed is saying.======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp Disclosures: Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.======================⁠DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is pioneering a new category in crypto investing with the first Solana-focused Digital Asset Treasury. DFDV offers public market exposure to Solana's growth, yield, and onchain innovation, offering investors a leveraged way to participate in a trillion-dollar opportunity. Learn more about why Solana and why DFDV at SolanaTo10K.com.======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro1:28 – Why the Federal Reserve is deeply divided6:18 – Structural changes reshaping the US economy9:40 – Will the market force the Fed to cut rates?13:17 – The K-shaped economy: who's in recession?19:29 – Markets at risk: positioning signals flashing red22:31 – What the KISS model says about bitcoin

Thoughts on the Market
Trends and Challenges for Consumers in 2026

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 11:14


Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference in New York, our analysts discuss the latest macro trends and pressures impacting the U.S. consumer.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance. Today's episode is the first in a two-part special focused on the consumer where we'll focus on the K economy and the health of the U.S. Consumer. Tomorrow for the next episode, we'll turn our attention to AI. My colleagues and I are eager to dig into this discussion. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst.It's Thursday, December 4th at 10:00 AM in New York. So, to start, I want to go through the health of the consumer. That's of course been a theme that's been on display at the conference today. And 2025 has really been a year of mixed signals. But overall spending has held up while inflation has weighed on confidence, especially among lower- and middle-income households. Arunima, I want to start with you on the macro front as we head into year end. How would you describe the overall state of the consumer? What are you expecting in terms of real wage growth and spending? Arunima Sinha: If we'll just look at the rearview mirror in terms of Q1 through Q3, this year spending growth on a real basis has been holding up. So, in the first half of this year, about 1.5 percent on average. For the third quarter, given the data that we do now have in hand, we're tracking about 3 percent, quarter-on-quarter, on a real basis. But I think it is important to emphasize that this is already a step down than the numbers that we were seeing last year. So, in 2024 on these Q-on-Q numbers, we were running somewhere between 3.9-4 percent. So there already has been some slowdown. The recurring theme that we've had this year is how are the drivers of consumption going to weigh on different cohorts? And so, how is the labor market going away and how are wealth effects going to play out? And that, sort of, tied in squarely with the narrative that we've been emphasizing this whole year, which is that for the upper income cohorts, those net wealth effects have been very, very supportive. $50 trillion in net wealth that's been created just over the last three years. And that has continued for this year as well. And so, meanwhile the labor market has downshifted and that's had a read through into both just nominal wage growth as well as real wage growth. So, for example, on a three-month, three-month basis, that real wage growth, after we've adjusted for the nominal for inflation, has slowed down essentially to stall speed. It used to run, somewhere between 2-2.5 percent, in the first part of this year. And that we think is going to have a read through as we go into this upcoming quarter of Q4, as well as in the first quarter of next year. So just this lagged effect from the slowdown on labor market income is going to weigh; continue to weigh on the middle-income and sort of the upper-, lower- part of the income cohort. So, in terms of our growth forecasts for spending, over this quarter in Q4 and over next quarter in Q1, we are expecting about 1 percent real growth for consumption. That is a two-percentage point step down from where we were in Q3. And then just in terms of disposable income, we're also thinking this particular quarter in Q4 is going to be fairly weak. Michelle Weaver: You spoke a little bit about the different income cohorts there, but I want to double click on that. The K economy has been a really persistent theme as higher income households have benefited from strong market returns. But higher price levels have weighed on lower-income households. What are your expectations for the high versus low-income consumer next year? Arunima Sinha: So next year, we do think that there could be some broadening out in consumption growth. Just overall we have a sequential step up in growth that begins to take place, starting in the second quarter of [20]26. So, we have consumption growth that starts to slowly inch up from about just under 1 percent in the first quarter of [20]26 – all the way up to about 2 percent by the end of the year. What that's going to be driven by, we think that there are going to be some lessening of pressures on the middle-income cohorts. And where is that going to come from? It's going to come from perhaps a still moderate labor market. So, we're not – we don't think we're going to be seeing these big 100,000-150,000 plus jobs being added every month. We're thinking maybe about 60,000 on average per month, for most of next year. But just less policy uncertainty, some boost from the fiscal bill, the fact that monetary policy is going to be heading towards neutral. All of those things should be supportive. Given that the upper-income didn't really slow down this year, we'd also don't think there's going to be a giant acceleration next year. And so, some of that uptick in consumption growth, we think could actually come from the middle-income. And we also think that some of those tariff pressures on inflation are going to start to dissipate after peaking in the first quarter next year. Michelle Weaver: And Simeon, I want to bring the company side into the conversation. What's the early read you've gotten on Black Friday? Expectations into the shopping season were pretty weak. Do you think things could turn out to be better than feared? And are you seeing any differences by income cohort there? Simeon Gutman: The overall take is, it's mixed – to maybe slightly a little worse. I'll answer it in a few different ways. First, the old-fashioned tire kicking that the retail analysts have done during the holiday season. In our hard line, broad line, food retail space mixed to slightly a little worse. In Alex Straton's softline world sounded a little bit better. And then if we combine the takeaways that we've had from companies, at least who presented yesterday, Walmart, Target and some other category killer retailers, it sounded about inline. Underlying trend is relatively stable.I sat on a panel earlier today, with a data aggregator who suggested that the holiday was a little underwhelming. What we don't see; and the underwhelming being at a minus 2 percent run rate for the – I guess, the November to date period, that doesn't include Cyber Monday. What this doesn't account for is the market share shifts. So, one of the ongoing themes across the entire retail landscape has been this big, getting bigger – we say it a lot – but the narrowing funnel of market share. So, the inline updates are probably coming from some of the largest companies, even if the overall holiday was a little underwhelming. Now inline is not anything to write home about. It's harder to get to an inline holiday if you started out below. So inline's okay but not gangbusters. That's probably the right way to characterize it. Michelle Weaver: Megan, same question to you. How is holiday shopping tracking in your space? Have you learned anything surprising about holiday during the conference? Megan Clap: Yeah, I would agree with Simeon relatively inline. I'd say kind of so far so good is what we heard from companies at the conference. We had both Mattel and Shark Ninja product companies that sell into many of the larger retailers that are winning that – that Simeon talked about.Holiday matters a lot for both of them. So, we're still many weeks ahead of us in terms of POS, but Mattel talked about positive POS continuing through the Black Friday season. They left their guidance unchanged today. They're seeing replenishment from their retailers and orders in line with expectations, which was a question just given some of the uncertainty in the landscape. Shark Ninja sells small appliances. They spoke to a strong Black Friday – again, seeing the fourth quarter and holiday play out in line with their expectations. Maybe a couple themes that stood out and one of them was particularly interesting to me. You talked about the K economy, I think, you know, it was very clear the higher end consumer continues to spend and outperform. Value and innovation continue to be things that consumers are looking for. Online seem to do better than in stores. That's what we heard from a lot of companies coming out of last week. And then newer channels like TikTok Shop are coming into the mix and, and brands are seeing, you know, strong growth from those channels as well. Michelle Weaver: And Arunima, I want to wrap this section on Fed policy. How do you expect Fed policy in 2026 to influence consumer spending and recovery, especially for those middle- and lower-income households? Arunima Sinha: We still have the Fed on an easing path into the first half of 2026. So we think 75 basis points and additional policy cuts into next year. But that more or less just takes monetary policy to some estimate of neutral. So, the point is that it's not monetary policy's becoming easier, it is simply just getting too neutral. And so, if we think about the most interest sensitive types of consumption, it's going to come from Housing and it's going to come from Durables. And what our housing strategists are thinking is that given this sort of front end of the curve, our tenure forecast for the middle of next year is still at about 3.75. And so, mortgage rates could dip below 6 percent. So, it's not the front end of the curve. It is that sort of belly of the curve there that's important there. And so there could be some pickup in housing that's going to be important. I think for the middle-income consumer affordability, we think it's still going to be an important concern for housing, but perhaps the middle-income could benefit from some of those lower mortgage rates that are going to come in. Michelle Weaver: ​ Arunima, Simeon, and Megan, thanks for all your insights. And to our live and podcast audiences, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Unchained
The Chopping Block: Token Launch Hype, L1 Wars & Prediction Market Breakouts - Ep. 969

Unchained

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 63:25


Welcome to The Chopping Block — where Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner cover crypto's biggest moments. This week we're joined by Kevin from the Monad Foundation as we dig into the most chaotic token launch of the year. Monad goes live, CT explodes, and the tokenomics wars come roaring back — vesting, float, FDV, and why everything “just keeps going down.” We break down whether the world actually needs another L1, how hype creates impossible expectations, and how Kevin and the Monad team are handling the spotlight — and the hate. Then we shift to security chaos: Yearn's underflow hack, Anthropic's AI discovering real smart contract vulnerabilities, and “post-quantum” panic sweeping Crypto Twitter. Plus: BTC volatility, MicroStrategy drama, and prediction markets suddenly going mainstream. Show highlights

Squawk on the Street
SOTS 2nd Hour: Meta Minus The Metaverse? Plus: Cantor's Chief Macro Strategist, Fmr. Antitrust Chief Jonathan Kanter 12/4/25

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 41:23


Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli kicked off the hour with new jobs data before Cantor Fitzgerald's Chief Macro Strategist gave his bull case for bonds, Bitcoin, and equities into year-end. Plus: one tech analyst gave his take on Meta's potential move away from the metaverse - sending shares soaring today - while Sara brought exclusive color from the CEO of PVH following new numbers there.  Also in focus: new headlines around the bids for Warner Brothers Discovery - including some potential Washington pushback... Former antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter joined the team with his take on things, and who he says would face the least hurdles. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Street Signals
The 12 Trades of Risk-mas: A 2026 Macro Outlook

Street Signals

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 30:15


The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which themes will continue into and emerge from 2026.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Behind the Bots
November NHRL Recap and Finals Preview with Golden Dumpster Winner Liam King!

Behind the Bots

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 92:12


Liam has been on a tear this year with Buzzzz-kill recently capturing the 12lb crown at November NHRL! Now the overall 2nd seed behind only Slam Plan, Liam looks poised for a deep run at Finals. Outside of 12lbs, Liam and the rest of Leatherbacks have been racking up wins in the insectweights at events like Water's Edge, MACRO and had a close fight with top bots like Mako at November NHRL with his 3lb Zenith.  To watch the podcast live check out https://www.youtube.com/@jakemaximizer/streams on every other Thursday at 7pm EST! Otherwise, it should be available on all the podcast places later in the week!

Wealthion
Don Durrett: Gold & Silver Are Surging Because The Stock and Bond Markets Are Lying

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 18:50


FICC Focus
Macro Matters: BI Rates 2026 US Treasury Market Outlook

FICC Focus

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2025 17:28


The Federal Reserve may cut its benchmark rate below 3% next year, bull steepening the yield curve beyond what's priced into forwards, says Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist. Jersey is joined by BI US and Canada rates strategist Will Hoffman on this episode of the Macro Matters podcast to discuss the BI Rates team's recently released 2026 US Treasury Market Outlook. The pair discuss the state and direction of the US economy and how Fed interest-rate and balance-sheet policies are likely to shift. They also touch on the supply-and-demand outlook for the Treasury market, as well as relative value across the yield curve. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Macroaggressions
#600: Rude Awakening Coming To New York City

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 66:49


When the choice for Mayor is between an Italian Zionist sexual harasser who murdered 16,000 elderly people during COVID, or a Muslim Socialist rap producer who has never held a real job, it is hard to call anyone a winner. New York City is about to become unrecognizable. The rise to power for the 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani is artificial and contrived, with no victories or accomplishments in his past, making people suspicious about who this guy really is. His ideas will surely destroy what's left of Gotham, and the government-run grocery stores will be looted daily, but maybe that is the plan? The people of New York City are about to get exactly what they voted for and deserve, while everyone else braces for impact.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Thoughts on the Market
Investors' Top Questions for 2026

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 10:14


Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York. So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market. Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question? Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S. And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well. Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling. All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Top Traders Unplugged
ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 65:16 Transcription Available


Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management's Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners01:50 - Joe's path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin Rips, Vanguard Flips, Bank of America Goes 4%, and Whales Reload

CRYPTO 101

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 60:03 Transcription Available


In this episode of the Crypto 101 Rundown, Tevo and Brian break down a major post-Thanksgiving market rebound as Bitcoin rockets from $84K to $92K despite extreme-fear sentiment. They highlight huge bullish catalysts—Vanguard finally enabling crypto ETFs, Bank of America recommending a 1–4% allocation, and whales aggressively accumulating during the dip. The discussion also covers strengthening U.S. regulatory momentum, including the FDIC's movement on stablecoin frameworks and rising institutional adoption from JPMorgan and others. The show wraps with updates on MicroStrategy's cash moves, Ethereum's upcoming upgrade, and community favorites like Pudgy Penguins and HyperLiquid gaining traction. Get my #1 altcoin pick for this month. Check out Plus500: https://plus500.comEfani Sim Swap Protection: Get $99 Off: http://efani.comcrypto101Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comCheck out Quince: https://quince.com/CRYPTO101Check out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.com/cardThe Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. In order to qualify for the $200 crypto intro bonus, you must spend $3,000 in your first 90 days. Terms Apply. Some exclusions apply to instant rewards in which rewards are deposited when the transaction posts. This content is not investment advice and trading crypto involves risk. For more details on rates, fees, and other cost information, see Rates & Fees. The Gemini Credit Card may not be used to make gambling-related purchases.Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio for just $1.00 today! Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution" and start making big profits from buying, selling,Chapters00:00 — Show opens: markets rip post-Thanksgiving, BTC rebounds hard, and bullish news floods in.03:33 — Market scan: BTC, ETH, and SOL surge while Fear & Greed stays unusually low.05:51 — Whale wallets holding 1,000+ BTC spike, confirming heavy dip accumulation.09:24 — Vanguard shocks the industry by enabling Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETFs.17:11 — Bank of America recommends a 1–4% crypto allocation, signaling major TradFi alignment.24:21 — Sentiment talk: fundamentals remain strong as U.S. regulators and agencies turn pro-crypto.31:30 — Macro discussion: price fear vs. long-term conviction, plus reflections on past cycle psychology.43:36 — Momentum segment: Pudgy Penguins land an NHL partnership and hype tokens react to team unlocks.MERCH STOREhttps://cryptorevolutionmerch.com/Subscribe to YouTube for Exclusive Content:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast?sub_confirmation=1Follow us on social media for leading-edge crypto updates and trade alerts:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101*This is NOT financial, tax, or legal advice*Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved  ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofrCreative Commons — Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported — CC BY-ND 3.0 Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZAROMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Our Sponsors:* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/CRYPTO101* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Thoughts on the Market
AI Sparks New Economics for Electricity

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2025 4:36


Our South Asia Energy Analyst Mayank Maheshwari discusses how the unprecedented demand to power AI is set to transform the power industry for years to come.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mayank Maheshwari: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mayank Maheshwari, Morgan Stanley's South Asia Energy Analyst. Today: how AI and electrification are rewriting the rules of global power. It's Tuesday, December 2nd at 9 pm in Singapore. If you've noticed your electricity bills are climbing and headlines are buzzing with talk of AI, you're not alone. The way we use – and need – power is changing fast, and it's impacting everyone from homeowners to major tech companies. Global power consumption is surging at the fastest pace in over a decade. Annual demand is set to rise by more than one trillion kilowatt-hours every year through 2030, with AI-driven data centers contributing nearly a fifth of that growth. We estimate about [U.S.]$3 trillion investments in datacenters by 2028, with power consumption growth of nearly about 126GW in these three years till [20]28. This is almost as large as Canada's total [annual] power consumption. And in this context, power prices are set to further rise. In 2024 – the latest full-year data available – global power sector investments hit a new high of $1.5 trillion, and consumer power prices have risen by about 15 percent. By 2030, U.S. power markets will account for half of the global data center power consumption. And Asia will also see about a 15 percent spillover of that U.S. hyperscaler demand, which will be also part of why some of the power markets in Asia will get a lot tighter. As power consumption rises, the difference between the price at which electricity is sold and the cost to generate it – also known as power spreads – are likely to rise by nearly 15 percent. This expansion in profit margins could lead to higher earnings forecasts for power generation companies and create $350 billion in value creation through the entire power supply chain. At the same time, years of under-investments in electric grids have led to bottlenecks, sparking a wave of new spending and pushing the industry to rely more on natural gas and energy storage and other new technologies – while also supporting that option of renewable power. In 2024, gas investments hit record highs, and starting in 2026 gas is set to become a new truly global source of new power generation. Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to meet about a fifth of [the] world's new power needs, excluding China. And nuclear energy is well positioned for increased investments; while batteries – which is energy storage – is also getting to get a new set in terms of new investments across datacenters and in markets like China . Moving forward, the power industry faces a multi-decade transformation, marked by unexpected shifts and opportunities. We'll see increased collaboration between fossil and non-fossil fuels, wider adoption of tiered pricing, and a surge in spot market and behind-the-meter sales all driving longer-lasting, elevated power spreads. Gas, nuclear, energy storage, and fuel cell supply chains – especially in Asia and the U.S. – stand to gain from stronger pricing power [and] new growth prospects, while grid operators benefit from higher investment and better returns. On the flip side, pure solar and wind producers may continue to see rising costs in Asia, something we have already seen in [the] U.S. and Europe, as [the] global grid leans more on batteries and steady fossil fuel supplies to balance the requirements of the rising needs of power across the supply chains – in AI as well as domestic utilization of manufacturing. Ultimately, as AI and electrification supercharge power demand, the real challenge isn't just adding renewables. It's about building a resilient, flexible grid and navigating the new economics of energy. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse
Retail Sells, Institutions Buy: The Biggest Misread of This Cycle w/ Sid Powell

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2025 44:45


In today's episode, we sit down with Sid Powell, CEO of Maple Finance, to dig into the forces shaping crypto right now: the yen carry unwinding, liquidity shocks, the October flash crash, stablecoin expansion, and what 2026 actually looks like once the dust settles.~~~~~

Thoughts on the Market
Home Affordability Still Under Pressure

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 8:37


Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the outlook for mortgage rates and the U.S. housing market in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Jim, why did the cranberry turn red? James Egan: Please enlighten me. Jay Bacow: Because it saw the turkey dressing. Jay Bacow: I hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving. Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're here to talk about our views from mortgage rates in 2026 and how that flows through to our U.S. housing outlook.It's Monday, December 1st at 11:30am in New York.Now, Jay, as we all get over our turkey induced naps over the weekend, how are we thinking about mortgage rates evolving in 2026?Jay Bacow: Well, as you and I discussed previously on this podcast, the Fed cutting rates in and of itself doesn't actually cause the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to come down. However, our rate strategists' forecast for lower rates in the front end should be helpful to where the primary rate ends up this year. And we would also expect some compression between primary mortgage rates and Treasury rates given our bullish outlook for the mortgage asset class. So, our expectation is that the 30-year fixed rate ends 2026 around 5.75 percent.James Egan: Alright, if we get to 5.75, maybe a little bit lower than that in the middle of next year, that's enough to send affordability into a healthier place. But that's a relative term. Affordability is still going to be under pressure, but it will have improved. And it will have improved at a pretty healthy amount from where we were in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was multi-decade levels of challenged.Jay Bacow: All right, Jim, so clearly the mortgage rate coming down does make homes more affordable, but is it enough to cause more homes to actually transact?James Egan: So, the answer is yes, but it's going to be a ‘Yes, but' answer from that perspective. We do think that transaction volumes are going to increase. But to put into context where we sit from a housing market perspective – we already saw a healthy increase in affordability from the fourth quarter of [20]23 through the end of 2024, right? But if we put that affordability improvement in context, we've seen that about 10 times over the past 40 years. The only times where sales responded more tepidly than they just did in 2025 – were in 2009, the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis; and in 2020, when the market really slowed down in the immediate aftermath of COVID. The lock-in effect is still playing a very big role. We do think that this sustained marginal improvement and affordability will help purchase volumes. But this is not what's going to get us to kind of escape velocity. We're calling for about a 3 percent growth in purchase volumes next year. Jay Bacow: Alright. Now, you mentioned this a little bit already, but if there's less lock-in because the mortgage rate has come down, will more people be willing to list their homes for sale? Are we going to get more inventory on the market? James Egan: I think that's the other piece of how we're thinking about housing moving forward. Any improvement we get in affordability from lower mortgage rates is going to be paired with increasing inventory volumes. We've already seen that. Listed inventories are up roughly 30 percent from historic lows in 2023. They're still 20 percent worth below where they were in 2019. So, we're not talking about oversupply at this point. But that increase in listed inventories without a contemporaneous increase in demand is weighed on the pace of home price growth. We started this year at +4 percent nationally. We're below +1.5 percent. We think that any growth and demand will come coincident with the growth in listing volumes. That's going to keep home price appreciation under control. We're only calling for 2 percent growth in HPA next year, 3 percent out in 2027. But the high level thought here is that the housing market is well supported at these levels. Difficult to see big decreases in sales volumes or prices next year. But also going to be difficult to really achieve any more material growth in this low single digits we're calling for. But Jay, as you and I are talking about this outlook with market participants, one question that gets brought up frequently is what else can the administration do, especially on the affordability side, to help with instigating more housing activity. Jay Bacow: In order to really help affordability, given the challenges that you've discussed around the supply and demand issues; then the other aspect of that is just what is the mortgage rate? And if they were to do things that would cause the mortgage rate to come down, that would be helpful. Now, the Fed already has made an announcement that they're going to continue mortgage runoff from their balance sheet. If they ended mortgage runoff, that would've helped. But that window seems to have passed. There's been some discussion from the administration around new types of programs. In particular, there was a lot of headlines around a 50-year program. A 50-year amortization schedule would likely result in a material drop in the monthly payment that the homeowner would make – which would help. However, the total interest payments for that homeowner, depending on exactly where this hypothetical 50-year mortgage rate would price, are probably about double over the life of the loan relative to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. So, we're not really sure that this product would see a huge amount of upkeep. There's also some technical challenges around whether it meets the definition of a qualified mortgage and some other in the weeds discussions. James Egan: What about all the discussion we're hearing around assumability of mortgages, portability of mortgages? Is there anything there? Jay Bacow: Based on our understanding of contract law, which I have to confess is limited as I am not a lawyer, we don't think you can retroactively make mortgages portable or assumable that were not already portable or assumable. So, you can make new mortgages portable and assumable. Portable as a reminder means that if you have a mortgage, you take it with you to your new house, and assumable means that the mortgage stays with the house. If you sell it to somebody else, they get that mortgage. But realistically, we think this would have to be a new product. And because it would be a new product with new benefits to the homeowner, it would actually probably cause their mortgage rate to be higher, not lower. James Egan: I guess one last question. We're talking about affordability and we're addressing it through interest rates being lower, we're addressing it through the potential for new products to be put out there, even if there are some challenges around that piece of it. But what about just demand for mortgages themselves? You said the Fed might not be a buyer going forward, but are there other pockets of demand for mortgages that could help bring down mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Sure. So, we expect the GSEs to grow their portfolio next year, that would certainly be helpful. On the margin, we expect them to buy about a little less than a third of the net issuance that comes to the market. We also think that domestic banks could come back to the market and they could help bring the mortgage rates lower. But these changes are going to help mortgage rates by, in the context of maybe an eighth of a point to a quarter of a point at most. It's not a panacea, unfortunately. James Egan: Alright. So, we expect a little bit of an improvement in mortgage rates, a little bit of affordability improvement next year. That should lead to growth in purchase volumes, and I think it will lead to a little bit of growth in home prices. But the housing market is well supported range bound here. Jay Bacow: Jim, pleasure talking to you. And to all our regular listeners, thank you for adding Thoughts on the Market to your playlist. James Egan: Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: And as my kids would say, go smash that subscribe button.

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse
Will Bitcoin Drop to $56K? How to Survive the Downtrend w/ Matt Crosby

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 47:33


In today's episode, Matt breaks down the exact charts, onchain signals, macro shifts, and psychological levels that forced him to hit the brakes, and the game plan he recommends for surviving this downtrend.~~~~~

Investec Focus Radio
Macro Monday Ep 98: South African markets outperform

Investec Focus Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 10:03


While November was flat for global markets, they've performed well over six and 12 months. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International discusses South African equities that have stood out, with a 43% gain in US dollar terms over the past 12 months, compared to 19% for the global benchmark, reflecting the role of rising commodity prices in supporting South African markets. Investec Focus Radio SA

Mercado Abierto
Claves macro de la jornada

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 8:08


Valoración de la macro del día en usa, con datos como el de PMI manufacturero sobre la mesa. Con Diego Barnuevo, analista de Ebury.

Zakendoen | BNR
Jaap Bierman (directeur van de Haagse vervoersmaatschappij HTM) over de toekomst van het OV

Zakendoen | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 110:43


De Nederlandse stadsvervoerders pleiten al JAREN voor meer investeringen in het openbaar vervoer, maar tot nu toe lijkt het vooral bezuinigingen proberen te voorkomen. Hoe gaat de sector daarmee om? Jaap Bierman van de Haagse vervoersmaatschappij HTM is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Economenpanel De Nederlandse economie presteert ondanks de Amerikaanse importheffingen, hoge inflatie en geopolitieke onzekerheid beter dan verwacht. En: na maandenlang speculeren publiceerde de Britse regering dan eindelijk haar begroting, maar of die het land uit het financiële slob kan trekken? Ik ga het allemaal bespreken in het economenpanel dat vandaag bestaat uit Barbara Baarsma (hoofdeconoom van PwC Nederland, en hoogleraar toegepaste economie aan de UvA) en Menno Middeldorp (hoofd van RaboResearch). Luister l Economenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Macroaggressions
#599: Serial Killers in White Lab Coats | Zowe Smith

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2025 68:47


Author Zowe Smith is back to go deeper into her book, "My Life in the Thrill Kill Medical Cult." The medical coding scams during the COVID-19 psychological operation were terrifying, as dollar values were openly assigned to human life. Communication was intentionally disrupted and siloed through the creation of the HIPAA laws under Clinton, as information on patients was unable to escape the satanic medical system. The ties between the medical industry and the eugenics promoters of the early 1900s are well known, and the medical schooling cartel has kept its grip tight since it was created by the Rockefellers over a century ago. As we transition into genetics, there has never been a more important time to be paying attention to what is happening in medicine, nanotechnology, and vaccines. —Guest Links:Zowe Smith - www.ThrillKillMedicalCult.com—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Macroaggressions
#599: Serial Killers in White Lab Coats | Zowe Smith

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2025 68:47


Author Zowe Smith is back to go deeper into her book, "My Life in the Thrill Kill Medical Cult."  The medical coding scams during the COVID-19 psychological operation were terrifying, as dollar values were openly assigned to human life. Communication was intentionally disrupted and siloed through the creation of the HIPAA laws under Clinton, as information on patients was unable to escape the satanic medical system.   The ties between the medical industry and the eugenics promoters of the early 1900s are well known, and the medical schooling cartel has kept its grip tight since it was created by the Rockefellers over a century ago. As we transition into genetics, there has never been a more important time to be paying attention to what is happening in medicine, nanotechnology, and vaccines.  — Guest Links: Zowe Smith - www.ThrillKillMedicalCult.com — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Thinking Crypto Interviews & News
CRYPTO BULL MARKET IS NOT OVER AS SILVER GIVES CONFIRMATION WITH THE MACRO SETUP!

Thinking Crypto Interviews & News

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2025 20:34 Transcription Available


Crypto News: Silver hits a new all time signaling liquidity roation and the macro bull market is still intact and crypto turn will come. Animoca Brands to focus on stablecoin, RWA in 2026 amid US IPO efforts. Brought to you by ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/ 

MacVoices Audio
MacVoices #25299: 2025 MacVoices Holiday Gift Guide #4 (2)

MacVoices Audio

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2025 34:49


The 2025 Holiday Gift Guide #4 continues in Part 2 with Norbert Frassa, Rosemary Orchard, Mike Schmitz, and Chuck Joiner sharing standout tech picks. Highlights include gear for iPhone photography, an overhead camera, an automation pick, protective AirPods cases, audio gear, and an AI-focused book recommendation.   In the Take Control Books Black Friday sale, you can save 25% on all full-price titles. Or, save 50% on all ebooks, including upgrades, for a full year with a Take Control Premium membership for $14.99. Plus, if your order total including Premium is at least $34.99, you'll get a free ebook of your choice! The sale runs through December 3. For complete details, go to takecontrolbooks.com/blackfriday25. Show Notes: Chapters: [0:00] Introduction and Take Control Books Black Friday details [0:54] Norbert's next pick: ShiftCam iPhone case and lens system [2:29] Macro photography, telephoto options, and lens ecosystem [3:37] Why ShiftCam makes a great gift and add-on system [5:13] Rosemary's pick: Logitech Reach document camera [6:19] Features, 1080p clarity, and flexible desk mounting [7:33] Book scanning and overhead camera uses [9:09] Mike's pick: Stream Deck Neo for creators and automation [10:26] How Stream Deck enhances workflows and setups [11:21] Chuck's pick: Audioengine A5 speakers overview [13:41] Audioengine S6 desktop subwoofer as companion pick [16:19] Norbert's final pick: "The Rest Is History" membership [19:33] Rosemary's AirPods Pro case by ESR with lock and MagSafe [23:34] Rugged design, secure latch, and charging stability [24:56] Mike's book pick: Co-Intelligence by Ethan Mollick [26:21] AI mindset, disruption, and student use cases [28:10] Chuck's final pick: Audioengine S6 subwoofer [30:45] Closing remarks and where to find the panel online Links:   Norbert Frassa: Shiftcam iPhone 17 case https://amzn.to/48jsEo1 Shiftcam Lenses https://amzn.to/48h19eD Shiftcam Full Lens Kit https://www.shiftcam.com/collections/lensultra-bundles Rest is History Club Annual Membership https://therestishistory.com/join-the-club-2/ Rosemary Orchard: Logitech Reach overhead content camera https://www.logitech.com/en-gb/shop/p/reach-overhead-content-camera ESR for AirPods Pro 3 Case (2025), Compatible with Airpods Pro 3rd Generation Case (USB-C Cable), Effortless MagSafe, Drop-Proof Lock, Easy Open, Cyber Series https://amzn.to/4rksyFv Mike Schmitz: Elgato Stream Deck Neo https://amzn.to/3JYgDML Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI by Ethan Mollick https://amzn.to/3XoUVV8 Chuck Joiner: White Noise App (full version) https://www.tmsoft.com/white-noise/ OWC Thunderbolt Hub Docking Station https://amzn.to/4pEl4eQ Audioengine A5+ Wireless Bluetooth Bookshelf Speakers - Premium 150W Stereo Speakers https://amzn.to/487Qmop Audioengine S6 210W Compact Powered Mini Subwooferhttps://amzn.to/3KgHrrC Guests: Norbert Frassa is a technology "man about town". Follow him on Twitter and see what he's up to. Rosemary Orchard is a nerd, automator, and chocaholic. When she's not making Shortcuts or podcasting about them, you'll frequently find her discussing her love of iPads and other Apple technology on RosemaryOrchard.com, Automators, Nested Folders, The Sweet Setup, and ScreenCastsOnline. She is runs WhenWorks to help you schedule appointments more efficiently. Originally from the UK she now calls Vienna, Austria, home…until she returns to the U.K. Follow her on Twitter.  Mike Schmitz is a nerd and an independent creator who talks about the intersection of faith, productivity, and tech He's a YouTuber, screencaster (ScreenCastsOnline), writer (The Sweet Setup), and co-hosts the Focused, Bookworm, and Intentional Family podcasts. Follow him on Twitter as _MikeSchmitz. Support:      Become a MacVoices Patron on Patreon      http://patreon.com/macvoices      Enjoy this episode? Make a one-time donation with PayPal Connect:      Web:      http://macvoices.com      Twitter:      http://www.twitter.com/chuckjoiner      http://www.twitter.com/macvoices      Mastodon:      https://mastodon.cloud/@chuckjoiner      Facebook:      http://www.facebook.com/chuck.joiner      MacVoices Page on Facebook:      http://www.facebook.com/macvoices/      MacVoices Group on Facebook:      http://www.facebook.com/groups/macvoice      LinkedIn:      https://www.linkedin.com/in/chuckjoiner/      Instagram:      https://www.instagram.com/chuckjoiner/ Subscribe:      Audio in iTunes      Video in iTunes      Subscribe manually via iTunes or any podcatcher:      Audio: http://www.macvoices.com/rss/macvoicesrss      Video: http://www.macvoices.com/rss/macvoicesvideorss

Macroaggressions
Flashback Friday | #406: The Enterprise

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2025 72:59


Everyone has heard of the New World Order, the World Economic Forum, and the United Nations as vehicles for global domination, economic enslavement, and world government. There was, however, a lesser-known criminal network that operated from the shadows for decades and was deeply involved in drug trafficking, arms dealing, an assortment of massive financial frauds, sexual blackmail entrapment honeypots, money laundering on an unimaginable scale, and of course, many, many murders.There existed a 5,000-person criminal network with George H.W. Bush as the CEO that covertly ran the world from behind the scenes through the 1980s and 1990s that came to be known as “The Enterprise”, but most people would better recognize it from the name that author Danny Casolero gave it in his book that ended up costing him his life: the “Octopus”.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Macroaggressions
Flashback Friday | #406: The Enterprise

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2025 72:59


Everyone has heard of the New World Order, the World Economic Forum, and the United Nations as vehicles for global domination, economic enslavement, and world government. There was, however, a lesser-known criminal network that operated from the shadows for decades and was deeply involved in drug trafficking, arms dealing, an assortment of massive financial frauds, sexual blackmail entrapment honeypots, money laundering on an unimaginable scale, and of course, many, many murders. There existed a 5,000-person criminal network with George H.W. Bush as the CEO that covertly ran the world from behind the scenes through the 1980s and 1990s that came to be known as “The Enterprise”, but most people would better recognize it from the name that author Danny Casolero gave it in his book that ended up costing him his life: the “Octopus”. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Thoughts on the Market
Special Encore: How Japan's Stablecoin Could Reshape Global Finance

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2025 5:02


Original Release Date: October 31, 2025Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country's new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Today – Japan's stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors. It's Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo. Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally. You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It's significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar. And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether. Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan's cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there's still room to grow compared to other countries. The government's push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy. Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They're managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet. Japan's regulatory approach is strict: stablecoins must be 100 percent backed by high-quality, liquid assets, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited. Issuers must meet transparency and reserve requirements, and monthly audits are standard. This is similar to new rules in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. What does this mean in practice? Financial institutions are exploring stablecoins for instant payments, asset management, and lending. For example, real-time settlement of stock and bond trades normally take days. These transactions could happen in seconds with stablecoins. They also enable new business models like Banking-as-a-Service and Web3 integration, although regulatory costs and low interest rates remain hurdles for profitability.Or think about SWIFT transactions, the backbone of international payments. Stablecoins will not replace SWIFT, but they can supplement it. Payments that used to take days can now be completed in seconds, with up to 80 percent lower fees. But trust in issuers and compliance with anti-money laundering rules are critical. There's another topic on top of investors' minds. CBDCs – Central Bank Digital Currencies. Both stablecoins and CBDCs are digital. But digital currencies are issued by central banks and considered legal tender, whereas stablecoins are private-sector innovations. Japan is the world's fourth-largest economy and considered a leader in technology. But it takes a cautious approach to financial transformation. It is preparing for a CBDC but hasn't committed to launching one yet. If and when that happens, stablecoins and CBDCs can coexist, with the digital currency serving as public infrastructure and stablecoins driving innovation. So, what's the bottom line? Japan's stablecoin journey is just beginning, but its impact could ripple across payments, asset management, and even global finance. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

More or Less with the Morins and the Lessins
OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War

More or Less with the Morins and the Lessins

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2025 68:58


Pre-Thanksgiving chatter from the Lessins' Surf Shack: Jess, Brit, Dave, and Sam pinball from holiday-card automation to trillion-dollar AI geopolitics. Brit trades Minted for Canva+GPT, Jess admits to maintaining a 600-row address spreadsheet, Sam unveils Slow's Etiquette Book, and Dave still can't believe we can't pay in USDC. Don't worry this year's Thanksgiving edition will live up to its hype, the crew gets into the real stuff too: Google's TPU push vs. Nvidia's moat, Meta reportedly buying billions in TPUs, whether Google can shave 10% off Nvidia's revenue, and more.Chapters:06:45 The San Francisco consensus and Silicon Valley's real innovation marketing11:10 Elon Zuck and megaphone-powered distribution14:30 Why interface distribution will decide AI winner17:20 Memory isn't real lock-in switching between ChatGPT and Gemini21:40 OpenAI's identity crisis: Apple-style computer vs Meta-style attention26:30 Google complex vs OpenAI complex how the narrative flipped29:10 Google TPUs vs Nvidia Meta's rumored buying spree33:20 AI infrastructure economics depreciation CapEx margins36:00 Macro vs micro elections risk cycles 40:10 DOE's Genesis Mission and where the analogy breaks44:00 OpenAI's Jony Ive device timeline48:30 Why distribution still beats novelty53:15 Final takeaways: marketing distribution and business-model warsWe're also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/7BbWHm3KODwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse
This Is How Crypto Replaces Banks: Cards, Stablecoins & Onchain Accounts w/ Itamar Lesuisse

Web3 Academy: Exploring Utility In NFTs, DAOs, Crypto & The Metaverse

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2025 29:03


In today's episode, Ready CEO Itamar Lesuisse joins us to reveal how self-custody, stablecoins, and onchain payments are quietly turning wallets into full-blown neobanks… and why traditional banks aren't ready for what's coming next.~~~~~

Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
Private markets and macro outlook

Capital Ideas Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2025 24:49


Capital Group portfolio manager John Queen and Paula Campbell Roberts, chief investment strategist for global wealth at KKR, offer their views on the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, including the health of public and private markets. They share their expectations for interest rates, inflation, the labor market, stocks and bonds, along with some thoughts on whether certain markets have reached "bubble" territory. #CapGroupGlobal For full disclosures go to capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures For our latest insights, practice management ideas and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. If you're based outside of the U.S., visit capitalgroup.com for Capital Group insights. Watch our latest podcast, Conversations with Mike Gitlin, on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbKcvAV87057bIfkbTAp-dgqaLEwa9GHi This content is published by Capital Client Group, Inc. U.K. investors can view a glossary of technical terms here: https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual-investors/gb/en/resources/how-to-invest/glossary.html To stay informed, follow us LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/capital-group/posts/?feedView=all YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapitalGroup/videos Follow Mike Gitlin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikegitlin/ About Capital Group Capital Group was established in 1931 in Los Angeles, California, with the mission to improve people's lives through successful investing. With our clients at the core of everything we do, we offer carefully researched products and services to help them achieve their financial goals. Learn more: capitalgroup.com Join us: capitalgroup.com/about-us/careers.html Copyright ©2025 Capital Group

Macro Voices
MacroVoices #508 Laskhman Achuthan: Inflation Cycles Amid Regime Change

Macro Voices

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 64:36


MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lakshman Achuthan. They'll discuss all things cycles, from the current outlook on growth and inflation cycles to how cycles in general perform in times like these when big political and geopolitical headlines are driving markets. https://bit.ly/4iGSes1  

Macroaggressions
#598: Living in a Post-Truth World

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 72:46


Everything seems a bit fake these days, not just the money in our wallets or the news on the television. The carefully constructed facade of reality, consistently manufactured and maintained over the decades, appears to be coming to an end. The fake money doesn't buy the fake food that it once did, and the lying politicians are still lying, but nobody is really listening anymore.What comes next after the public decides that they have moved on from cable news, university indoctrination programs, rigged basketball games, and forever wars fueled by fiat currency? Hopefully, something amazing fills the void, but there is no real reason for optimism these days.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Macroaggressions
#598: Living in a Post-Truth World

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 72:45


Everything seems a bit fake these days, not just the money in our wallets or the news on the television. The carefully constructed facade of reality, consistently manufactured and maintained over the decades, appears to be coming to an end. The fake money doesn't buy the fake food that it once did, and the lying politicians are still lying, but nobody is really listening anymore. What comes next after the public decides that they have moved on from cable news, university indoctrination programs, rigged basketball games, and forever wars fueled by fiat currency?  Hopefully, something amazing fills the void, but there is no real reason for optimism these days. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Thoughts on the Market
Special Encore: An Unprecedented Wave of Inheritances Is Coming

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 3:38


Original Release Date: October 10, 2025Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In A Vacuum (A Peter Overzet Pod)
⏰ Thanksgiving Slate: Top Plays, Scrolls & Pick 'Ems

In A Vacuum (A Peter Overzet Pod)

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 87:22


Pete, Jon, and Nez get you prepped for the Thanksgiving DFS slate on Underdog, share their favorite sleepers, and build some spicy pick 'ems⁠⁠.

Thoughts on the Market
What's Driving U.S. Growth in 2026

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2025 6:02


Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Thoughts on the Market
Bull Market Keeps an Eye on the Fed

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2025 4:12


Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors might want to reassess their portfolios, keeping in mind the gap between market moves and monetary policy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, why the Fed may hold the key for both near term and medium-term stock market performance. It's Monday, November 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. At the end of September, we discussed the building tension between the Fed and markets in terms of both the fed funds rate and liquidity, suggesting this had the potential to lead to a correction in the short-term. This scenario is playing out with high momentum and low-quality stocks responding more to tightening liquidity back in September, while the high-quality S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 responded more to the incremental hawkishness on rate cuts relayed at the October 29th Fed meeting.While downside for the S&P 500 has been limited to just 5 percent, the damage under the surface has been more significant with two-thirds of the largest 1000 stocks seeing more than a 10 percent drawdown and one quarter down more than 20 percent. Similarly, Bitcoin is down close to 30 percent and topped even earlier than high momentum stocks. Gold also felt the impact of tighter liquidity earlier than the S&P 500, as one would expect.We're staying vigilant around this dynamic related to monetary policy and can't rule out more index-level downside in the short-term, especially if breadth remains weak. Having said that, we think the weakness under the hood is a sign that we're closer to the end of this correction than the beginning for the weaker areas of the market. Historically, the Generals tend to fall the most at the end of corrections. As I said on this podcast back in September, we would view this type of correction and reset on expectations as an opportunity to double down on our rolling recovery thesis which remains out of consensus.From our perspective, private labor data are showing signs of weakness that suggest the Fed should be cutting rates more aggressively. This is very much in line with my core view that the rate of change trough in the labor data occurred back in April with the lows in the equity market. The official government labor data that the Fed is waiting for is lagging and will simply confirm what we, and the markets, already know. With the official October jobs data cancelled due to the shutdown and the November series not available until December 16th, the equity market may continue to wrestle with the Fed that dragging its feet and delaying rate cuts.The good news is that we expect a meaningful decline in the Treasury's General Account in the coming weeks as the government re-opens. This should help to provide a much-needed boost to liquidity at the same time the Fed ends quantitative tightening. The question is whether these changes will be enough to improve liquidity conditions in a durable way. In my view, the clearest indication will be if we see relief in areas of the equity market and asset classes most sensitive to these dynamics over the next two weeks. That means low quality profitless growth stocks in the equity world should rally the most.Bottom line, I remain convinced in our bullish 12-month outlook for the S&P 500 and stocks more broadly. Initial feedback from investors to our recently published 2026 outlook indicates that several of our core views for 2026 remain out of consensus. More specifically, our early cycle narrative versus consensus thinking that we're late cycle; 17 percent earnings growth next year versus the consensus at 14 percent. And finally, our upgrades of small/mid cap stocks and consumer discretionary goods to overweight. Use near term weakness related to a Fed that is moving too slow for the markets' liking to reposition portfolio to sectors and stocks that have lagged behind for most of the past several years – but will benefit the most from the more aggressive Fed action that we expect to come.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Macroaggressions
#597: Going Where The Data Leads | Dr. Jessica Rose

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2025 68:14


It took a pro-vaccine scientist to spot the rather large flaws in the data surrounding the COVID-19 experimental gene therapy, known as the vaccine, starting in 2021 and continuing to this day. As someone familiar with the data presented through the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), Dr. Rose understood what the numbers were indicating. The COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign was a crime against humanity, and Dr. Rose has evidence that shows the shots are responsible for the medical catastrophe that is slowly becoming obvious to more and more people worldwide. Will humanity break the spell cast by their mainstream media, or is it too painful to acknowledge that humanity was intentionally culled by dangerous psychopaths? — Guest Links: Dr. Jessica Rose's Substack: https://substack.com/@jessicar — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Macroaggressions
#597: Going Where The Data Leads | Dr. Jessica Rose

Macroaggressions

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2025 68:14


It took a pro-vaccine scientist to spot the rather large flaws in the data surrounding the COVID-19 experimental gene therapy, known as the vaccine, starting in 2021 and continuing to this day. As someone familiar with the data presented through the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), Dr. Rose understood what the numbers were indicating.The COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign was a crime against humanity, and Dr. Rose has evidence that shows the shots are responsible for the medical catastrophe that is slowly becoming obvious to more and more people worldwide. Will humanity break the spell cast by their mainstream media, or is it too painful to acknowledge that humanity was intentionally culled by dangerous psychopaths?—Guest Links:Dr. Jessica Rose's Substack: https://substack.com/@jessicar—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcastActivist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —