Podcasts about Macro

Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with CEO Alex Karp, wonder how SpaceX can deliver anything notable today relative to the company's valuation, and preview AMD, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack post with many links, including on AI. John's The FX Trader piece from this morning, focusing especially on the recent coordinated JPY intervention and EURJPY. 69 Starship launches to get one decent payload to the moon? A Starship skeptic speaks out on concerns related to the idea of SpaceX using these space-based depots of fuel to extend the operating range of Starship.  Arnaud Bertrand challenges Palantir's AI Sovereignty framework, although Palantir's results spoke quite loudly late yesterday, as did CEO Alex Karp himself. Tungsten as an indicator of war risk and once again, a mineral supply chain that China dominates. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.  

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump's decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner's highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Evolution in the AI trade. A rise in long-term global bond yields. And the key names to watch this week.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

From a massive balance sheet to the way the Fed communicates, Fed Chair's Kevin Warsh's new task forces will take a comprehensive look at U.S. monetary policy. Macroeconomist Joe Santos weighs in on the complicated work of reform now before the Fed.

While global equities are up strongly over the last year, there's been a clear slowing in momentum in the last six months. According to Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management, this implies that much of the strong US earnings performance has been priced into the market. Investec Focus Radio SA

Mark McDonald, Head of AI and Data Science, assesses the dominant market narratives around artificial intelligence.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/fdLXmWmStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

Hervé Van Caloen, President of Mercator Investment Management, joins Michael Gayed on Lead-Lag Live to discuss where the next decade of alpha lives outside the US — with a focus on Latin America (Venezuela post-Maduro, Argentina's Milei reforms), Japan's semiconductor comeback via Rapidus, European defense investment, and the case for global diversification when US market concentration hits a 93-year high. Topics covered: (00:00) Host intro and Hervé's international investing background (05:05) US tech concentration and the case for diversification (10:00) Europe's shift toward bureaucracy and regulation (15:10) Sweden's capitalism pivot and European contrasts (20:21) Japan's lost decades and the macro turnaround (25:20) Japan's semiconductor strategy and the Rapidus initiative (30:18) Global rotation beyond the US and investor caution (35:05) Emerging markets pain, BRICS, and Latin America opportunity (40:04) Currency risk, hedging, and export-focused plays About Mercator Investment Management: Mercator is an international asset manager focused on non-US equity opportunities across developed and emerging markets. Hervé Van Caloen brings decades of experience investing across Latin America, Asia, and Europe, with particular expertise in identifying structural reforms and macro pivots that create multi-year equity re-ratings. Where to find Hervé and Mercator: Website: mercatorinvestments.com Contact: Hervé Van Caloen — herve.vancaloen@mercatorinvestments.com The Lead-Lag Report: leadlagreport.com Sponsored by Mercator Investment Management — this episode is presented as part of Mercator's Lead-Lag Live sponsored webinar series covering international investment opportunities. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Views expressed by Hervé Van Caloen are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decision. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

** Do you want to talk about this episode with us? Come to Macro ‘n Chill, our online gathering. Tuesday, August 4, 8pm ET/5pm PT. Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/nLks4k8gQWKQzTAn0CEsoAAshwin Shantha joins Steve for a discussion challenging Western narratives on China – particularly the all-too-common opinions that dismiss its socialist character. This episode makes the case that China is a genuine socialist project where the state disciplines capital rather than being governed by it.Ashwin illustrates how China's green industrial revolution—driven by rapid progress in electric vehicles and renewable energy—marks a qualitative break from capitalist development paths. Unlike the Global North's extractive model, China's centrally planned approach prioritizes use-value objectives (clean air, energy self-reliance, and technological independence) over exchange-value maximization. The state constructs markets strategically, using mechanisms like the dual-credit policy to force both domestic and foreign automakers toward sustainable production targets.While the episode isn't focused on MMT, it highlights how China's monetary sovereignty enables fiscal space for long-term industrial planning. The nation's ability to issue its own currency and direct credit toward clean development highlights a crucial distinction from Global South countries trapped in IMF-imposed structural adjustment programs. This self-determined policy space, which is denied to nations like India and much of Africa, allows Beijing to absorb neoliberal shocks while maintaining state control over the economy.China's sustainable growth model is anti-imperialist in two key ways. First, energy independence reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels that expose the country to geopolitical leverage through choke points like the Malacca Strait. Second, technological autonomy focuses on developing indigenous productive forces that break the Western monopoly over clean technology.By keeping private capital subordinate to state priorities, China shows that socialist modernization offers a workable alternative for the Global South, avoiding the de-development and resource plunder that characterizes Western industrialization.China's model may still have some contradictions, but it continues to show what is possible when state power is wielded in the interests of the working class.Ashwin Shantha (they/them) is a doctoral student whose research focuses broadly on the political economy of sovereign development in the global South, focusing specifically on China and South Asia. Some of their existing work has researched South-South development cooperation between China and Pakistan through the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as, more recently, China's state-led green industrial revolution in the electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors. Ashwin is also the host of the International Solidarity Podcast, which focuses on the politics of anti-imperialism and socialism in the global South.YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@journalofintlsolidarityInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/journalofintlsolidaritySubstack: https://intlsolidarity.substack.com/

Our Strategist Michelle Weaver talks to Michael Zezas and Jessica Alsford, Co-Directors of the Morgan Stanley Institute, about how AI, energy resilience and industrial policy are changing investment decisions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Michael Zezas: I'm Michael Zezas, co-director of the Morgan Stanley Institute and Deputy Global Head of Morgan Stanley Research.Jessica Alsford: And I'm Jessica Alsford, Morgan Stanley's Chief Sustainability Officer, and also co-director of the Morgan Stanley Institute.Michelle Weaver: Today: how AI, energy, geopolitics, and industrial investment are competing for scarce resources – and what that competition could mean for markets.It's Friday, July 31st at 10am in New York.Jessica Alsford: And 3 pm in London.Michelle Weaver: Mike and Jess, as co-directors, you speak with people across the firm to identify the biggest questions facing companies and investors, especially the important ones that may not have clear answers yet. And to understand how those questions are shaping client conversations. Mike, what's one of the questions that you think investors are wrestling with the most right now?Michael Zezas: So, one of the biggest questions is how several major investment cycles can happen at the same time. AI, energy infrastructure, manufacturing, and defense may all be competing for the same power, the same skilled labor, equipment, and capital. So, investors need to look beyond each theme in isolation and ask where constraints could delay projects, raise costs, or redirect spending, and which companies are best positioned to manage all of that.Michelle Weaver: Since the institute began, you've examined a number of topics, including AI, energy resilience, and geopolitical fragmentation, just to name a few. Jess, which topic has been the most compelling to you?Jessica Alsford: It's difficult to pick one because, to be honest, for me, it's really the way that AI, energy resilience, and geopolitics have all really become one story. If you think about the energy transition, which has been playing out for a number of years. But now we also have the AI build-out, and that depends on reliable and affordable power. And then geopolitical shocks, which are demonstrating the need for countries to have energy security.So, if you put all of this together and you can really see that there is a huge need to scale the global energy system, but using all types of power available to us, including renewables and nuclear.Michelle Weaver: Mike, how is that intersection that Jess spoke about between AI, energy, and geopolitics altering the way that companies are thinking about investing?Michael Zezas: So, geopolitical shocks, they're more norm than exception now. The situations in Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela, they all reflect an evolving international order where the U.S. is less interested than it used to be in preserving global security and trade standards.And that's a particular problem in a world where companies and governments spent much of the last 50 years optimizing to benefit from globalization. So basically, looking for the lowest cost way to produce things, sourcing materials and labor in the most efficient way possible, presuming that the frictions in international goods and services trade would just keep getting lower.That's obviously not the case now, and whether it's a good idea or not, the trend is toward governments leaning into industrial policy to prioritize supply chain security and protect whatever it sees as their national competitive advantages. And really that's correlated with higher trade barriers. So, that means that while companies are still focused on efficiency, they have to build resilience through more regional supply chains, greater redundancy, and investment in strategically important capacity. So, the practical message from our teams is to map critical dependencies, diversify where possible, and be realistic about the extra cost of resilience rather than assuming the old globalization model will simply return.Michelle Weaver:  One of the clearest constraints on the AI build-out is energy. Our thematic research team is estimating a nearly 40-gigawatt shortfall in power needed for data centers. For context, this is multiple New Yorks worth of power. Jess, how significant of a limiting factor is power becoming?Jessica Alsford: Power is definitely becoming a strategic constraint. If you think about grid connections, these can take years to set up. And so, access to power really is going to determine where facilities are built and how quickly they're able to come online. And it looks like there won't be one universal solution.You've got natural gas, nuclear, renewables, storage, microgrids. They're all going to need to play a role. And for companies, that means that they really are going to have to be planning power alongside the site and financing. For investors, it means focusing on reliability, affordability, and permitting, not just headline demand.Michelle Weaver: So, AI, energy, and geopolitics can no longer be considered in isolation. As countries and companies rethink where they source, build, and invest, where do you see the biggest opportunities emerging?Jessica Alsford: The opportunity is likely to be broader than any single sector, to be honest. and the institute has shown that capital really needs to be flowing towards more resilient supply chains as well as new productive capacity and also the infrastructure that supports both of these. And this covers power, grids, automation, logistics, as well as data. I'd also say that location matters, too. And companies need to be able to weigh political stability as well as skilled labor, reliable energy, and policy support. And investors should be looking for markets and businesses that can turn those advantages into durable returns.Michelle Weaver: The institute has also looked at founders as a source of economic information. Jess, what can their decisions reveal before those changes appear in traditional economic data?Jessica Alsford: So, founders are often making decisions at the leading edge of growth and capital formation, and so their behavior can provide an early read on both at-risk appetite and also financing conditions. If we take the current macro environment as an example of this, the institute has shown that many founders are adapting rather than simply waiting, and this means extending fundraising timelines, spawning investor conversations, and considering private credit, structured equity or tender offers. For companies, the takeaway really is to preserve financing flexibility. And for investors, it's to watch how those choices can reshape private market liquidity.Michelle Weaver: Mike, to bring this back to where we started, if power, labor, and capital are all becoming more constrained, what should investors be watching most closely?Michael Zezas: Yeah. I'd watch whether capital spending plans are being delayed or resized or redirected in some way, and I think importantly, what the reasons would be for any of those things happening.Is there a constraint around power or labor or equipment permitting or financing? Those details help distinguish whether you'd be looking at temporary setbacks or a structural shift. So, something that would signal that we've built too much capacity in AI or manufacturing relative to demand. And that's the type of thing that would be a real headwind to the economic outlook and potentially create problems in the credit markets.But to be clear, we don't see demand flagging anytime soon. And so, for investors, it's less about whether to be bullish or bearish on the outlook for the markets and the economy, and it's more about looking for companies that are durable beneficiaries of these trends. So those are ones with secure inputs, flexible balance sheets, and realistic return thresholds.Michelle Weaver:  Absolutely. As Mike said, we don't see demand slowing, and we're seeing a lot of encouraging data points around AI adoption. One analysis we did recently shows that around 25 percent of S&P companies are now quantifying the benefits they're seeing from AI adoption. And this diffusion story is only going to continue to grow.Mike, Jess, thanks for joining me.Michael Zezas: Thanks Michelle.Jessica Alsford: It's great speaking with you both.Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for tuning in. If this is all piquing your interest, you can find the institute's articles, roundtables, and future work on Morgan Stanley's website. And as always, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast with a friend or colleague.

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home(01:06:18) - Can Places Change(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko's Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko's Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko's Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to Macro, Micro and Small Cap News with Sharepickers! In today's episode for Friday, 31st July 2026, we review the main market indices, examine the Bank of England's rate decisions alongside Neil Woodford's macroeconomic insights, look at AI security concerns, and highlight 3 promising UK stocks worth researching.

Em um cenário que continua exigindo atenção aos sinais da economia global e doméstica, investidores acompanham de perto os desdobramentos da política monetária e a leitura dos principais indicadores econômicos. No encerramento de julho, as perspectivas para juros, inflação e crescimento seguem entre os temas mais relevantes para a compreensão do cenário macro e seus reflexos sobre os mercados. Ao longo da live, nossos convidados ajudam a colocar esses movimentos em perspectiva, debatendo os fatores que podem impactar os mercados financeiros e as decisões de investimento daqui para frente. Nesta edição, participam Thomas Wu, estrategista-chefe de Investimentos do Itaú, e Rodrigo Koch, gestor da família de fundos Itaú Optimus, com moderação de Vanessa Daraya, da Comunicação Itaú. Quer saber mais sobre os nossos fundos: Optimus Extreme: https://meu.itau/optimus_extremeOptimus Hyperion: https://meu.itau/optimus_hyperion

De ANWB verwacht morgen op Zwarte Zaterdag veel belletjes van gestrande reizigers in het buitenland. Hoe gaat de wegenwacht dit weekend alle automobilisten met kapotte accu’s en lekke banden weer op weg helpen? En: de afgelopen maanden zaten de vakbonden en de ANWB maar liefst zeven keer samen om tafel om te onderhandelen over een nieuw cao. Maar waarom is er nog altijd geen akkoord bereikt? Te gast is Marga de Jager, bestuursvoorzitter van de ANWB. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Bedrijvenpanel Het Chinese JD wil met vlekkeloze logistiek en nieuwe merken de Europese retailmarkt veroveren, maar Brussel kijkt kritisch mee. En: er werden 125-duizend extra banen voor mensen met een arbeidsbeperking beloofd. Maar dat werden er veel minder... Luister l Bedrijvenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to better understand what's moving the markets around the world and to be better prepared for what may be next. Recorded on July 27, 2026. At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For a fifth year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2025 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study. -- Perspectives de la macroéconomie mondiale selon Jurrien Timmer – 27 juillet 2026 Joignez-vous à Jurrien Timmer, directeur en chef, Macroéconomie mondiale chez Fidelity, pour mieux comprendre les moteurs des marchés mondiaux et vous préparer pour ce que nous réserve l'avenir. Pour une version avec des sous-titres français, veuillez consulter https://youtu.be/r4V7k55etGY Date : 27 juillet 2026 Chez Fidelity, notre mission consiste à aider le public investisseur canadien à se bâtir un meilleur avenir et à rester à l'avant-garde. Nous offrons aux particuliers et aux institutions une gamme de portefeuilles de placement innovants et fiables pour les aider à atteindre leurs objectifs financiers et personnels. Les fonds communs de placement et les FNB de Fidelity sont offerts par l'intermédiaire des conseillers et conseillères en placements et de comptes de courtage en ligne. Pour de plus amples renseignements, visitez fidelity.ca/commentinvestir. Les baladodiffusions DialoguesFidelity se sont classées au premier rang pour une cinquième année consécutive lors du sondage 2025 d'Environics sur l'expérience numérique des conseillers et conseillères en placements au Canada.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jim Bianco. They will discuss this weeks FOMC meeting. https://bit.ly/4wz7e16   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://secure.bigpicturetrading.com/membership/signup/fOY4YJYX  

Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we break down what the Fed should do next, how money printing quietly erodes your purchasing power, Kevin Warsh's plan to reshape the Fed, what history says happens to economies as K-shaped as ours, and what gives Darius hope for the future. ====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ====================Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/ This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I'm compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital.====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp====================0:00 - Intro0:56 - What the Fed should do vs. what they will do7:19 - Dollar debasement: pricing assets in "units of dollars"11:29 - Kevin Warsh, ending forward guidance, & AI-driven disinflation18:29 - Red states vs. blue states: fixing the K-shaped economy26:53 - Explicit vs. implicit socialism & the Wealth Pump theory32:01 - What gives Darius hope for the future

Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd explains why the recent AI infrastructure selloff may reflect technical pressures, not weakening fundamentals.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.Today: Are investors misreading the AI infrastructure selloff?It's Thursday, July 30th, at 10am in New York.The recent selloff in AI infrastructure stocks has raised a familiar question: Is the buildout running ahead of real demand? The market is pulling back and we think that reflects profit-taking, crowded positioning, and forced selling by investors. This is not about weaker fundamentals. But the selloff has brought to light three key concerns, which we think the market is overplaying.The first concern is how much enterprises are willing to pay for AI. The median enterprise employee currently generates less than $11 a month in token spending. That's the fee paid when an AI model processes a request and generates a response.We think there is room for that to increase. From the employer's perspective the economics are compelling. Across workplace applications, the cost to execute the economic task would be $2-$5. And that could save an enterprise $55. That to us suggests companies are likely to spend more, not less, on AI over time.The second debate centers on efficient models, including competitive models developed in China.  And here, policy responses both from the U.S. and China can have an impact as well. Some investors worry that better efficiency means less computing demand. But we see the opposite risk. This is a classic example of Jevons paradox: When something becomes cheaper or more efficient to use, people use more of it. In AI, lower costs can attract more users, encourage more frequent use, and make complicated applications more economical. The scale is striking. Industry leaders estimate that compute demand could double every six months, which would amount to more than a thousand-fold increase in compute over five years. Hyperscalers could quadruple available power capacity to roughly 120 gigawatts by 2028, from about 30 gigawatts in 2025.And that leads to the third debate – whether data centers can secure enough power to keep expanding. It's a valid concern. In the U.S., facilities under construction and contracted grid capacity cover about 30 gigawatts. That's less than half the 68 gigawatts of power that data centers are likely to need from 2026 through 2028. Grid connections can take five to seven years in some regions. Skilled electricians, welders, and pipefitters are in short supply. And local opposition is increasing as communities debate electricity bills, tax incentives, and who should pay for grid upgrades.These are real obstacles, but we view them as delays rather than dead ends. Onsite generation, fuel cells, energy storage, natural gas turbines, and the conversion of existing high-power sites could close the gap, at least partially.We believe much of the recent weakness in AI infrastructure has been driven by technical factors rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals. As AI becomes more capable and cheaper to use, demand for intelligence, compute, and power is likely to keep rising. The global market is fragmented as policy decisions in the U.S. and China shape how growth unfolds. But strong economics should support continued investment.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Tony Zhang, Jessica Noviskis and Rich Excell are back to talk about the macro that matters! This time, it is all about the FOMC - is the bond market already giving up on Chairman Warsh? What does that mean for stocks? Will investors switch at some level? It is also about earnings - they have been off the charts, so why aren't stocks higher?  The gang touches on all of this.  Make sure you reach out to cfachicago.org to get your CE credits after you listen  

Kevin Warsh's new communications approach may be creating more uncertainty for markets, not less. Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics chief US economist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong discusses why Warsh's latest press conference appeared to contribute to the selloff in long-dated Treasuries, how his reluctance to provide a clear policy framework raised questions about the Fed's commitment to its inflation target and what changes could emerge from the central bank's communications task force. They also examine whether the Fed could adopt Bank of England-style explanations of individual dissents, publish scenario analyses and reduce its reliance on the dot plot. Wong explains why she expects softer inflation and labor-market data to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of 2026, and how the recent rise in real yields could slow housing, industrial production and broader financial conditions. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series. 

AI-marketingplatform Billy Grace ontwikkelt software waarmee bedrijven hun marketingprestaties beter kunnen meten en advertentiebudgetten slimmer kunnen benutten. Nadat het bedrijf recent 3,3 miljoen euro ophaalde voor buitenlandse groei, wil het nu voet aan de grond in het Verenigd Koninkrijk krijgen. MAAR het marketinglandschap verandert razendsnel en AI speelt hierin een grote rol. Dus is de vraag hoe houdbaar het businessmodel is en hoe realistisch de internationale ambities zijn. Mitch Voskuilen, medeoprichter van AI-marketingplatform Billy Grace is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Boardroompanel De onderhoudstak van KLM staat tot eind dit jaar onder verscherpt toezicht. Volgens de Inspectie Leefomgeving en Transport is sprake van een ‘ondermaatse veiligheidscultuur’. En: vier rapporten van PwC staan bomvol voetnoten die verwijzen naar niet-bestaande artikelen. Dat en meer bespreekt presentator Thomas van Zijl vanaf 11.00 in het Boardroompanel met Marilieke Engbers, onderzoeker governance & strategie aan de VU en schrijver van het boek 'Eenzaam aan de top' en Helene Vletter, hoogleraar Financieel recht & governance aan de Erasmus Universiteit, commissaris bij STMicroelectronics en bij Anthos Fund & Asset Management. Luister l Boardroompanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Momento de mirar a la macro de la jornada con Rodrigo Floro, Analista Macroeconómico en CIMD Intermoney. Echamos también un vistazo a Wall Street con valores Meta, Microsoft y Apple, entre otros

How can traders and investors position themselves?

In deze aflevering van De Nieuwe Wereld gaan we in gesprek met een panel van dwarse denkers over de staat van de energietransitie. Is het huidige beleid een onbetaalbare en ideologische utopie, of staan we aan de vooravond van een technologische revolutie?Oud-politicus en ondernemer Rob Roos fileert de Europese Green Deal en benadrukt de noodzaak van een robuuste economie met kernenergie. Macro-econoom Kees de Kort schuift aan om te waarschuwen voor het immense welvaartsverlies als we inzetten op onbetrouwbare en dure energie. Tegenover hen staat duurzaamheids-ondernemer Ruud Koornstra, die een optimistisch tegengeluid laat horen: de oplossingen, zoals zoutbatterijen en lokale innovaties voor het huishouden, zijn er al, maar worden gefrustreerd door bureaucratie en lobbygroepen. Bert Weteringe ontleedt ondertussen de mythes rondom netcongestie en hekelt de dwingende top-down regeldruk vanuit de overheid.-------------Steun DNWMaak het geluid van de Nieuwe Wereld mogelijk. Zonder uw steun geen DNW! Word lid of doneer:

How much runway does the world's energy market still have? Our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats joins our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets to explain what's causing pressure beyond renewed tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today – talking about the recent volatility and the direction ahead for oil.It's Wednesday, July 29th at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you again. We haven't talked for a little while on this program. But oil is once again back in the headlines and it's moving around.So maybe to just jump right into things, as you look at the lay of the land in global energy markets at the moment, what's been happening? What are you telling clients?Martijn Rats: Okay. Well, we've had a large amount of volatility, over the last couple of weeks. If you roll the clock back, sort of, to the beginning of June. In the beginning of June, it started to become clear that already some more oil was leaking out of the Strait of Hormuz than perhaps, many of us anticipated at the time.But that data has been confirmed since then. And then, of course, in the middle of June, we got the memorandum of understanding. And after that, roughly 100-150 million barrels a day or so that was behind the Strait of Hormuz got cleared. And that…Andrew Sheets: These were tankers that were stuck there during the conflict, all came out.Martijn Rats: Absolutely. Laden tankers that were there; had just basically turned into floating storage for a good couple of months. They all cleared out, and that actually created a bit of a glut, in the sense that all of a sudden, the refiners of this world had a lot of crude to absorb. And we saw many indications of physical looseness in the market, physical differentials, calendar spreads.All sorts of indicators pointed that physically there was a lot of oil, temporarily to be absorbed. And the spot price of Brent fell to $70. And that looked to be the new direction of travel. In principle, the world is not short of oil if you take the geopolitics out of it.So, for a while it, it looked bearish. But then a new set of disruptions came, and the military conflict restarted, and we've had 13 days of overnight bombing. And with that also the flow through the Strait of Hormuz diminished again. And we are back in the last, sort of, week, 10 days to very, very low levels. The same levels we had in March.The flow through the strait is not exactly zero. But it's sort of 2-3 million barrels a day, sort of, down 80 percent to 90 percent of what it was before the conflict. And with that, prices have rallied. But on top of that, last week it looked like the military activity could really scale up. And for a couple of days, the markets priced that in.But then we have other choke points to take into account now. Not only Hormuz, but the Bab el-Mandeb, the CPC terminal, the issues in global refining. Altogether, it's been a tremendously volatile period. So, we're on the whole leaning towards the constructive side because there are so many disruptions in the system. But it's a very hard one to call at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So Martijn, let's talk about those other disruptions besides just the Strait of Hormuz. Because yeah, it's not just the Strait of Hormuz anymore. We have issues in the Red Sea. You have ongoing issues with Russian energy infrastructure that's being attacked by Ukraine. Just what are these other factors that are out there? And how much do they matter relative to, you know, how many ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz?Martijn Rats: Yeah. They matter a lot, and you can see that expressed in the price of refined product more than the price of crude. If you look at the main global benchmark for the price of diesel, which is arguably the ICE gas-oil contract, which are diesel barges delivered in Rotterdam or in the wider ARA area, it's trading at about $1,200 a ton, which is sort of $150-$160 per barrel.That's where you see the tightness. And so out of the total end user price, the refiners are capturing more at the moment than the crude suppliers. But what end users pay is not $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil, it's $1,200 a ton for diesel. And that is a very high price. Now, that is a result effectively of four major issues that the oil market has to deal with.One of them is Hormuz, as just discussed. But then we come to these other three. And these other three are the Bab el-Mandeb, which is the strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula that provides entry and exit to the Red Sea. That strait has gained in importance because Saudi Arabia has been redirecting about 4 million barrels a day of crude oil supply that was previously exported via Hormuz. Now through the East-West Pipeline to a terminal near a city called Yanbu, from where it is loaded and mostly sails down south through the Bab el-Mandab to refineries in Asia.The Bab el-Mandab is a strait that is effectively controlled by the Houthis, which is an Iran-aligned group that controls much of Yemen. And already in [20]24, earlier in [20]25, they've been very effective, controlling tanker traffic through that strait. And in the last sort of week or so, they have said that they will no longer allow Saudi tankers to sail out. And also, that group has executed drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure near the Jazan refinery, near the Yanbu terminal, and overnight also the Abqaiq facility, which is a large oil processing plant.So, this whole Red Sea situation puts at risk something like an incremental 3.5 million barrels a day of crude.Then we've had to deal with issues at the CPC terminal, which is again, also a very large oil export terminal. About 1.5-2 million barrels a day of crude is exported from CPC, which is a terminal near the Russian city of Novorossiysk.Ukraine has been executing drone attacks on tankers that have been trying to load from the CPC terminal. Much of last week, the CPC terminal was out. Over the last 24 hours, a few tankers have loaded again, but it's very unreliable. It's on again, off again. It's a very disrupted flow. In and of itself, a single terminal loading 1.5-2 million barrels a day is very, very large. So, we care.And then the third issue that the oil market has been dealing with, and this also comes back to this issue about these refined product prices, is very severe tightness in the global refining system. That is an issue of some refineries can't export because they're behind the Strait of Hormuz again.So, you can say, "Well, isn't that; that's sort of the same problem?" But nevertheless, it expresses it somewhere else. It's partly a problem of, sort of, the Chinese refinery system running very low. But it's recently mostly been driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. And by now, something like 60 percent of the Russian refining system is out.And with that, exports of refined products have declined very significantly. There's a gasoline export ban. There's a diesel export ban from Russia. Russia used to be a very large diesel exporter. That is now down to practically zero. And with that, refined product markets have rallied severely on top of the price of crude.Andrew Sheets: And I think that's interesting [be]cause when we think about the economic impact of oil, while, you know, the price of oil per barrel is often the most kind of visible marker that we have – it's often the refined product that we actually use. You know, a truck is running on diesel. It's not running on crude oil.And, you know, that cost of diesel, of jet fuel, of gasoline, you know, that is the thing that can often really affect business margins. And the ability to operate and move product around. So, I mean, just give a sense like how much have those diesel prices gone up? And how much further could they rise if you're operating, you know, a trucking company in Europe?Martijn Rats: Yeah. Look, when supply is inherently scarce, we often ask the question – what is the demand destruction price, right? If you can't supply the stuff quick enough, the physical oil market, be it crude or refined product, must balance.There are a finite number of molecules in the system, and we can store them for a bit. We can take them out of storage. But when you take storage into account, molecules can't disappear out of nowhere. And they can't create it out of nowhere either. So, the system must balance. And if you can't supply it quick enough, the only way to balance sometimes is through demand destruction.And then we ask the question, what is the price that effectively causes that to happen? And if you look historically, that is often expressed in crude, something like $140-$150 a barrel. We've seen that before. But those were occasions where refining was not an issue. And then crude needs to do the heavy lifting to drive prices higher.What we're having at the moment is that refined products need to do it. And so, from experience earlier in the year, back in 2022, some other occasions, the price that destroys diesel demand is probably in the order of $1,400 a ton. In the diesel market, we use tons rather than barrels for historical reasons. Just to make it easy.But it's about $1,400 a ton, which is about sort of, you know, like $180-$190 per barrel. That really stops diesel demand in its track. At the moment, we're $1,230-$1,240, that sort of level. And so, we are getting close. There is probably a little bit more to go, like another 5 percent, 10 percent, that sort of thing, before you really hit some exceptionally high levels.But the diesel price, I would argue, is doing exactly that. It's searching for this demand destruction price. It's just if you then take that sort of $160 diesel that we have at the moment, how much do the refiners get versus how much do the crude producers get?At the moment, the refiners are getting $65- $70 out of that, leaving comparatively little for the crude supplier. But the refined product price is the channel by which the economy is impacted and ultimately also by which demand is eroded.Andrew Sheets: When we're talking about demand destruction, we're talking about at what price does a trucking company not operate, does not drive as much, you know, does not, you know... We're talking about less activity. And inherently that is, I think a risk to growth. But especially risk to growth in Europe where the starting point for growth is already pretty weak.Martijn Rats: Yes. So, we are watching as much, how the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refiners are playing out as we are watching, sort of, the Strait of Hormuz.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the last thing I wanted to talk to you about is, you know, we've been talking about the Iran conflict since late February. And, you know, we're sitting here in late July. And it's clear that, you know, there was a small normalization in flows as you talked about. But we're back to a place where those flows are nowhere near normal.And I think the question on everybody's mind is how much longer can this go on before there's a much larger shock to energy prices?Now, again, you've mentioned we're already seeing some of that shock to diesel, but, you know, a much bigger disruption. What's your current thinking on how much runway the energy system still has?Martijn Rats: Yeah. It's an excellent question, and it's turned out to be fiendishly hard to answer. My gut feel based on how the data is behaving, based on what we know from history: If this lasts another, sort of, month or two, three, then it's hard to argue that by then the buffers in the system will not have been completely exhausted.The reason why I think oil analysts have lost a degree of confidence in forecasting this accurately is that there's a lot of unexplained oil that does require some explanation. If you look at the cumulative amount of supply loss from the Middle East since the start of this conflict, easily over 1.5 billion barrels. 1.5 billion barrels in 150 days is an enormous amount.And yet, the inventory draws that we can find in observable data, they are at best a third of that, maybe 0.5 billion barrels. And so, there's another billion barrels where you say, "Yeah, we had that last year, but we don't have this this year.”How did we solve that billion-barrel problem? And you can say, "Well, we were a bit oversupplied going into it," and a few other things. But you, sort of, have to conclude, and I think this is also, you know, talking to clients and investors, other market participants. I think this is sort of collectively we're discovering this is that this system of, like, unobservable inventories has to be way bigger.That is either inventories like in the supply chain, inventories at customers end, or in countries where we generally just have very little data anyway, like in China. And so, the system has been behaving as if already in [20]24 and [20]25 actually, we were putting a lot of oil into these, in storages that are hard to observe – because in that period we had the opposite problem.We were forecasting large inventory builds, and we couldn't find them all. And now we're forecasting large draws, and we haven't been able to find them all. And so, the system has been behaving as this; the unobservable part of the inventories are way larger.And… But at some point, they also run out. But because they're hard to observe, we don't know when. And I would guess if we're getting towards the end of the summer by August-September, and we're still in this situation? Yeah, then we're going into the winter. Like, you know, German households objectively have little storage of heating oil.Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm.Martijn Rats: And they need to be rebuilt. And there are a few examples where we do know what customers are doing with their inventories, and they point to a picture where, yeah, by the end of the summer, like, we're running on fumes. And so, look, this – we've been able to patch this up. But it can't go on forever.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, always a pleasure to, to catch up with you and talk energy markets.Martijn Rats: Nice to talk to you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us.And please share with a friend or colleague today.

De sluiting van het Twentekanaal kost de economie al gouw honderdduizenden euro's per dag. Dat stelt branchevereniging Koninklijke Binnenvaart Nederland (KBN). Hoe moet de binnenvaartsector zich in de toekomst beter weren tegen lage waterstanden en kunnen de bedrijven in de branche het hoofd wel boven water houden als de droogte voorlopig aanhoudt? Maira van Helvoirt, directeur van branchevereniging KBN is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op dinsdag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Lobbypanel Na jaren van een moeizame relatie lijken ceo's weer welkom in Den Haag. En: is de komkommertijd voor lobbyisten echt zo rustig als het lijkt, of wordt de basis voor het politieke najaar juist in de zomer gelegd? Dat en meer bespreekt presentator Thomas van Zijl vanaf 11.00 in het lobbypanel met: Nora van Elferen, partner bij Eppa en Tristan Bons, adjunct-directeur van Vastgoed Nederland] Luister Lobbypanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

[Recorded July 28, 2026]  Sean Brodrick, Editor of Wealth Megatrends, Supercycle Investor, Resource Trader, and contributing analyst to Weiss Ratings Daily, joins us to discuss his investing outlook across multiple resource and general equity sectors in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. He shares how he is managing his portfolio as it relates to gold, silver, PM stocks,  A.I. Stocks, chip stocks, value stocks, and oil stocks.     The conversation kicks off around the precious metals sector, getting Sean's outlook on what fundamentals are driving gold, the gold stocks, and silver.   Sean acknowledged the bearish price action in gold and gold stocks since the tops in late January and February to present, and would like to see the PMs just quit going down and stop making lower lows. He points out that the world is sick of the weaponization of the US dollar, and so more central banks have been increasing their exposure to gold on their balance sheets, while diversifying out of the dollar and US treasuries. He is generally constructive on the upcoming Q2 earnings which has just gotten underway, where producer margins were still very robust, even despite the higher energy inputs for the quarter. Even if gold and silver continue to channel sideways then he still believes there are opportunities at present to pick up quality PM stocks.     Next we dove into the rotation in the general US equities out of some of the mega-cap tech leadership and out into other value sectors of the market. Sectors like financials, healthcare, insurance, and companies generating large amounts of revenues from traditional businesses are providing more “certainty” in very volatile times and headlines. Chinese A.I. platforms and chip companies could be quite disruptive to US tech companies, and this has roiled foreign stock markets like Korea and Taiwan. Defense stocks, both traditional names and the next generation defense names in drones and counter-drones may be waking back up. A recent Trump administration executive order focused on military contractors and the government focused on sourcing parts their supply chains from domestic sources, which may be a benefit to critical minerals stocks operating in the friendly trade partner sphere of influence.   Wrapping up we get Sean's outlook on the wild headline driving oil price movements from the $60s up to the $90s and back down into the $70s, and how that may play into current opportunities in the energy stocks.   Sean is hanging on to his energy stocks for now, especially if they have solid fundamentals at these current prices, and pay a good dividend. If the geopolitical tensions do calm down again, then he would be looking at accumulating more oil stocks if the WTI price got back down close to $70 again.       Click here to follow along with Sean's work at Weiss Ratings Daily and Wealth Megatrends . Click here to learn more about Resource Trader       For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.      

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week's interest rate decision by the Fed.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now. It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9:30am in New York. Will the Fed display patience, or has it run out of patience? That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway. We believe the former. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy, economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that? Michael Gapen: Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June. And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week, we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting. And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated. So, in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about 188,000 per month. And I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate. The subsequent employment data changed that view. Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed. So, the labor market doesn't look quite as robust. Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal about disinflation. So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher. We'll see where that goes. But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing. So, we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here. So, with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June. So, we think the right thing... Or what we think the Fed will do is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information. If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold. If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they can move to rate hikes later this year. But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June. Matthew Hornbach: Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting and the September meeting. If memory serves, at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points… Michael Gapen: That's right. Matthew Hornbach: Payroll, CPI, and so on. Michael Gapen: That's right. The gap between the July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar. Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that. But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September. Matthew Hornbach: If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting, what is the case for hiking rates in July? How would you think about that perspective? Michael Gapen: I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now. One is recent volatility and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher. Maybe it convinces you – you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario, and inflation will not dissipate. Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument. And we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation, where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market. We eased last year. Let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year. So, it's not about inflation in hand, it's about your view of risks around inflation. Another, I think, and to me, this is the most important one, is maybe Warsh wants a regime change in the reaction function. In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2 percent target. Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions. And maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2 percent more quickly. So, I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function, and Warsh is bringing a new one. And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is. And he could reveal it this week as being in a direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else. Matthew Hornbach: Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all. And in fact, I think that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed will react to higher energy prices. As energy prices have gone up, so have bond yields. The relationship between those two asset prices are very strong. And usually what that suggests is if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise, it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices. If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher, that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase. That just hasn't been the case, and so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed. But I guess we'll see. Only time will tell. And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is – we'll need some communication from the Fed. And maybe that's where I want to go next with you – is on communication. It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression? How do you think about communication? And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference… What do you think about press conferences going forward? Michael Gapen: I do think you're right. I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications. I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and/or interviews given recently. And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh as the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know. I will say, though, that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past. So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. On the press conference, boy, would that be a change. I've been of the view that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course, where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year. So, I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all. But if we don't have them… The way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less, there will be a vacuum out there to some degree. So, if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative, whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is. Vacuums are going to get filled. The Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more. Maybe that drives volatility more. I guess it would depend on the situation, but I think pulling press conferences would be a major surprise. I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.How would you read it? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function, rightly or wrongly. Which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices. Investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices. Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell. If we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which looks very likely, investors are going to pay attention to every nuance and every shift in the chairman's tone. How he chooses to address certain questions versus others—or whether he chooses to address them at all—will be important for market participants and how they invest in the bond and currency markets. With that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk. I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole symposium. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Thanks for having me on. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Jan is CEO of VanEck, a global investment firm managing over $230 billion. Drawing on decades of studying markets and history, he shares how major macro forces shape investment outcomes, how to position portfolios for structural change, and why big-picture trends may matter more than traditional frameworks.-This podcast/webcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, tax, investment, or business advice. It is not a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement. All opinions expressed by participants are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Evoke Advisors Division of MAI Capital Management, LLC ("Evoke”), its affiliates, or any companies mentioned. Information shared has not been independently verified by MAI or its affiliates. MAI Capital Management, LLC (“MAI”) is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), which does not imply any particular level of skill or training.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by any person.While such sources are believed to be reliable, Evoke does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Evoke does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date.The content is intended for a general audience and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities or adopt any investment strategy. Any examples or scenarios discussed are illustrative only, involve risks and uncertainties, and do not guarantee future results. Non-traditional assets carry significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Decisions should be based on individual objectives, risk tolerance, and circumstances.Statements herein are general and may not reflect an individual's or entity's specific circumstances or applicable laws, which vary by jurisdiction. Further, speakers' views are personal and may differ from Evoke and MAI recommendations and are not specific investment advice; and do not consider client objectives, risk tolerance, and diversification. Guests may have current or past relationships with Evoke and MAI, its affiliates, or the host, including as clients, service providers, or business partners. Participation does not constitute an endorsement or testimonial. No compensation has been paid or received for guest participation unless disclosed. MAI and its affiliates may have business relationships with entities mentioned in this podcast, which could create potential conflicts of interest. These relationships may include advisory services, investment management, or other arrangements. MAI seeks to manage such conflicts consistent with its fiduciary obligations and policies.(As of December 22, 2025)

In this episode of Critical Thinking, Teena Jilka is joined by David Scopelliti and Karl Heckenberg, President and Managing Partner at Constellation Wealth Capital, to explore how wealth managers are evolving their alternatives playbooks in response to macro shifts, changing client expectations, and the continued retailization of private markets. The conversation looks at how some firms are adapting their offerings, where scaling pressures are emerging, and what the growth of private markets could mean for the future of wealth management. Capital at Risk. This content was recorded in July 2026. The views expressed are those of the speaker(s). They are current as of the date of recording and subject to change without notice. Podcast guests may be from firms that Marsh Investments evaluates or rates. Podcast guests may have commercial relationships with Marsh Investments. Notwithstanding any separate relationship between Marsh Investments and a guest, no guest receives direct or indirect compensation for their participation in the podcast. For Marsh Investments's conflict of interest disclosures, see Conflicts of Interest. None of the material presented in this podcast is intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment manager or investment. This is provided for informational and educational purposes only. This does not constitute a recommendation or an offer to purchase or sell any securities. This does not contain investment, financial, legal, tax or any other advice and should not be relied upon for this purpose. The discussion is not tailored to your particular personal and/or financial position. No investment decision should be made based on this information. Certain information may constitute forward-looking statements though there is no guarantee that these results will be achieved. Past performance of any asset class or security is not a reliable indicator of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. There are substantial risks associated with investments classified as alternative investments. Investors considering alternatives should have the ability, investing sophistication and experience to bear the risks associated with such investments.  Marsh Investments makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of statements or information contained herein and takes no responsibility or liability (including for indirect, consequential, or incidental damages) for any error, omission or inaccuracy. This material should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part without written permission. A transcript may be provided for your convenience. Marsh Investments is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. © 2026 Marsh.  All rights reserved. Important noticesPodcast guests may be from firms that Mercer Investments evaluates or rates. In addition, podcast guests may have commercial relationships with Mercer Investments. Notwithstanding any separate relationship between Mercer Investments and a guest, no guest receives direct or indirect compensation for their participation in the podcast. None of the material presented in this podcast is intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment manager or investment.

Een op de zeven Nederlandse bedrijven is een familiebedrijf, die samen goed zijn voor 595 miljard euro omzet. Maar achter het succes schuilen vaak complexe vragen die uniek zijn voor familiebedrijven. Wie neemt het bedrijf straks over en wat als de volgende generatie daar geen trek in heeft? Moet de deur open voor private equity of blijft hij potdicht? Albert Jan Thomassen, directeur van branchevereniging FBNed is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggerspanel Het cijfergeweld gaat deze week verder met Meta, Microsoft, Amazon en Apple, nadat Tesla en Alphabet al de boeken openden. Blijven de AI-investeringen zich uitbetalen? Daarna: de Federal Reserve neemt woensdag een rentebesluit, terwijl de hoge olieprijs de inflatievrees opnieuw aanwakkert. Wat betekent dat voor de beurs? Dat en meer bespreekt presentator Thomas van Zijl vanaf 11.00 in het beleggerspanel met: Corné van Zeijl van Cardano en Reinder Wietsma Portfoliomanager Centive Global Equity Fund. Luister | Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he thinks the bull market has entered a new phase, with more focus on quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the transition from early- to mid-cycle and what that means for your portfolio.It's Monday, July 27th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.Our broadening call for the market has been about moving beyond the narrow leadership of the mega-cap winners and into more economically sensitive areas. That made sense in the context of our rolling recovery thesis, a period when revenue growth returns to lean cost structures, and operating leverage emerges across many sectors of the economy.But now, I think that early-cycle phase of the rolling recovery is ending, and the market is starting to rotate toward quality. That's not bearish, but it is different and can affect portfolios at the stock level. As the cycle matures, investors stop rewarding low quality beta and start focusing more on free cash flow, balance sheet strength, margins, and earnings stability. The market is not abandoning the recovery. It is becoming more selective about the best way to own it. This setup reminds me of early-to-mid 2021. After the initial post-COVID rebound, leadership shifted away from lower-quality and more speculative areas and toward higher-quality companies. The S&P 500 kept rising, but the leadership changed. I think we're seeing something similar today. The S&P itself is already a quality-heavy benchmark, with high-quality cohorts representing roughly 42 percent of the index versus about 28 percent for low quality. That should help keep the index resilient, even as the market continues to digest this transition. Could we still see near-term volatility? Absolutely. If the war escalates further or the Fed surprises us with a rate hike this week, the market can continue to correct. I continue to think 7000 on the S&P 500 is important support if investors remain uneasy about the Fed transition or the geopolitical backdrop. However, the bigger message is that leadership is changing, not that the bull market is ending.One of the most important drivers of this shift is AI adoption. Earlier in the cycle, margin expansion was about classic operating leverage: sales recovering faster than costs. From here, margin expansion will depend more on companies using AI effectively, running leaner, and turning productivity into revenue growth as well. This is why quality matters. Companies with strong pricing power, strong balance sheets, or the ability to translate AI adoption into real growth are likely to be rewarded disproportionately.Companies where AI is material to the investment thesis and pricing power is neutral to strong are seeing forward net margin expectations improve nearly 400 basis points above the median stock. Our transcript work also shows that roughly 25 percent of S&P 500 companies cited measurable benefits from AI adoption in the second quarter, up from 14 percent a year ago. That's operating leverage with a new engine. This also feeds into the AI leadership rotation. I still think semis are likely to underperform hyperscalers from here, even if both can be under pressure during the next leg of consolidation. Semis are a classic early-cycle group, and they've already seen a peak rate of change in earnings revisions. The hyperscalers, by contrast, have high quality core businesses, exposure to the agentic application layer, and an underappreciated ability to take costs out through AI-driven efficiencies. In terms of the overall S&P 500, the two variables I'm watching most closely are interest rates and oil. The bond market is pricing a meaningful probability of a Fed hike, but my base case remains that the Fed stays on hold. A hike would be a hawkish surprise and a risky maneuver, but I think even that would delay rather than derail a positive finish to 2026 with earnings growth remaining strong. Oil is the other wildcard. A sustained rise in oil is not priced into equities, and just another reason to move one's portfolio up the quality ladder.Bottom line, the broadening is not over, but it is changing shape and leadership. We're moving from early-cycle beta toward mid-cycle quality as the market seeks not only growth, but companies that can convert that growth into durable free cash flow and margin expansion. The recent elevation of quality factors has been evolving for the past month and now it's time to fully embrace it. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Text your thoughts and questions!Do you ever tell yourself you'll rest after you finish everything on your to-do list—only to discover the list never actually ends? Or find yourself feeling guilty the moment you slow down, convinced you haven't earned a break yet?Many of us understand that rest is important, but knowing we need it and actually making space for it are two very different things. Productivity culture has taught us to see rest as a reward instead of a requirement, leaving us exhausted, overwhelmed, and wondering why we're still running on empty.In this episode, Lisa explores the biggest barriers that keep us from getting the rest we truly need and shares practical strategies for making rest part of everyday life. Building on last week's conversation with Gary Ware, she explains why rest isn't something you have to earn, how to identify the types of rest that genuinely restore you, and simple ways to weave meaningful breaks into even the busiest schedule. You'll discover that sustainable productivity begins with rest—not after it.This week, episode 324 of the Positively Living® Podcast explores how to find time to rest and shares practical strategies for making restorative rest a realistic part of your daily life.Key Takeaways:Understand why rest is a necessity—not a reward you have to earn.Recognize the mindset shifts that make prioritizing rest feel so difficult.Learn why productivity actually depends on consistent, restorative rest.Discover why rest looks different for everyone and how to identify what truly restores you.Explore how your Joy List can help you reconnect with activities that energize you.Learn to notice which activities leave you feeling refreshed versus more depleted.Understand Gary Ware's Macro, Micro, and Mezzo Rest framework and how to apply it.Discover simple ways to improve the quality of your sleep through better sleep hygiene.Learn how a consistent wind-down routine prepares your nervous system for deeper rest.Explore practical five-minute micro breaks that actually help you recharge.Understand why scrolling or checking email doesn't count as true rest.Learn how transition rituals between tasks reduce stress and improve focus.Discover how "When-Then" habit triggers make restorative breaks easier to maintain.Learn why scheduling larger blocks of restorative time requires intentional planning.Recognize how starting with one small, consistent change creates lasting habits around rest.Thank you for listening! If you enjoyed this episode, take a screenshot of the episode to post in your stories and tag me!  And don't forget to follow, rate, and review the podcast and tell me your key takeaways!Learn more about Positively LivingⓇ and Lisa at https://positivelyproductive.com/podcast/Stop trying to fit into someone else's productivity rules! Grab my free Productivity Toolkit, a collection of workbooks designed to help you explore how you work, uncover what truly matters to you, and create your very own energy-friendly systems. Get it here: www.positivelyproductive.com/plpkitCONNECT WITH LISA ZAWROTNY:FacebookInstagramResourcesWork with Lisa! LINKS MENTIONED IN THIS EPISODE:Episode 297: The Joy List: Your Key to Self-CareEpisode 323: Why Rest Isn't Optional with Gary WareFree Joy List WorkbookFree 2-Minute Transition MeditationBook a Clarity CallAsync Coaching(Find links to books/gear on the Positively Productive Resources Page.)Dance Song Playlist V1, V2, V3Music by Ian and Jeff ZawrotnyStart your own podcast with Buzzsprout!Request this Toolkit and other free resources at the Resources Page.

Although US earnings for the second quarter have mostly beaten expectations, markets appear to have wanted more. Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management, says even companies such as Alphabet that have beaten forecasts have seen declines in their prices after results. Investec Focus Radio SA

De zakelijke reisbranche is volop in beweging. Na corona zorgen nu geopolitieke spanningen en technologische ontwikkelingen voor de nodige uitdagingen. Ondertussen neemt consolidatie in de markt toe. Zo is zakelijk reisbureau Uniglobe Alliance Travel sinds begin deze maand overgenomen door het Italiaanse zakenreisplatform BizAway. Is dat een noodgreep van het bedrijf dat vijf kantoren in Nederland heeft, of neemt het hiermee juist een vlucht naar voren? Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Economenpanel Hoe lang kan de Nederlandse economie nog bouwen op de zwaar verouderde infrastructuur? De ECB besloot de rente nog even gelijk te houden, hoe hebben de duiven de haviken overstemd met deze hoge energieprijzen? Dat en meer bespreekt presentator Thomas van Zijl vanaf 11.00 in het economenpanel met: Jan-Paul van de Kerke, hoofd economisch onderzoek bij ABN AMRO, en Hans Stegeman, hoofdeconoom bij Triodos bank Luister l Economenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Looking at clues from the past, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets examines how the recurring themes – from deregulation to volatility – are shaping markets and why every cycle still takes its own path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, what can Odysseus teach us about investing? It's Friday, July 24th at 2pm in London.Like many of you, this week I saw The Odyssey. The enduring appeal of this story more than 2,700 years after it was composed is a reminder that some themes are universal. Pride, resourcefulness, determination, self-control, or the lack thereof, mattered to both an ancient Greek dinner party and resonate with anybody investing today.But drawing lessons from the past is also tricky. We do not have that much financial history, and markets contain too many variables for the same combination to align twice. Some judgment, art, and dare we say storytelling is always involved in deciding which historical periods best describe the present. Those disclaimers aside, we've argued in our year ahead outlook that 1997 to 1998 and 2005 to 2006 are some of the most useful templates for the current backdrop.That remains our view. They suggest a cycle that has further to run, equities outperforming credit, and a preference to own volatility. Both of these periods were defined by a sharp rise in corporate activity. That is certainly what we're seeing today.We forecast U.S. capital expenditure to rise 23 percent in 2026, and 26 percent in 2027. AI is the biggest driver of this spending but build-outs in energy infrastructure are also playing a role. And increased corporate CapEx is certainly a global story, especially in Asia.Then there's M&A, which also rose significantly in these two past historical periods. As recently as early 2024, global M&A volumes were unusually depressed, some of the lowest levels in over 30 years, adjusted for economic size. But that's no longer the case. And more recently, M&A is currently running up 64 percent relative to a year ago.Important current macroeconomic data also looks somewhat similar to these past two periods. The current levels of U.S. core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and the 10-year yield are pretty close to the averages seen in 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2006.And the U.S. 2s10s yield curve, well, it broadly flattened then, and it has broadly been flattening today. A third similarity, maybe less obvious but no less important, is deregulation. Both 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 saw significant financial deregulation. And we're seeing that again now. From the Basel Endgame to NAIC risk weights to Solvency II changes to savings reforms in Europe, Korea, and elsewhere, the current trend appears to be on a firmly deregulatory path.Even more simply, 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 provide interesting narrative bookends to two ways that I often hear the current environment being described. The late '90s? Well, that was defined by rising excitement around a transformational new technology – then the internet – and the prospect of a more productive future. Sound familiar? And the mid-2000s? Well, that was defined by a very unequal economy and rising consumer stress – but growth that was still supported by a seemingly inexhaustible investment demand from a rising market force. Then that force was emerging markets. Today, it's AI. Again, somewhat familiar. If these periods serve as a guide, the cycle probably has further to run, and corporate aggression should favor equities over credit.But if we learn anything from the trials of Odysseus, the journey can throw up plenty of surprises along the way. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a “massive attack” on Iran, with the cryptocurrency losing about 1.5% on Thursday. ~This episode is sponsored by Uphold~ Uphold Debit Card ➜ https://bit.ly/UpholdXRPCard Guest: Evan Aldo Evan Aldo Youtube Channel ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanAldo 20% off Evan Aldo Course ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanCourse ➜  Use code "paulbarron" 00:10 Sponsor: Uphold 01:00 Massive Attack incoming? 02:00 BTC $70K this month? 03:30 BTC vs ETH 04:30 ETH end of year target? 05:50 Saylor sentiment on MSTR 07:30 MSTR vs BMNR 08:50 BMNR vs ETH (to hold) 09:20 Brian apology 10:40 HOOD vs COIN 12:00 Bloomberg: - AI vs Iran 12:50 Fed rate hike odds explodes 15:45 Insider dumping 16:30 S&P vs BTC 17:30 SpaceX buy level? 18:50 Monday - $CXMT 20:30 One token & One stock to hold 21:07 CRCL analysis #Crypto #Bitcoin #ethereum ~Macro Risks vs Crypto

Aberdeen Investments' Robert Minter discusses how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea region are pushing energy and agricultural commodity prices higher. He explains how supply chain pressures, U.S.-China competition, and rising inflation risks are supporting commodities, while highlighting broad-based commodity ETFs such as BCD and BCI as potential portfolio diversifiers.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The 10-year yield is near a 12-month high as the U.S.-Iran war continues to serve as an overhang for equities. Kevin Hincks offers his thoughts on the volatility as crude oil prices remain elevated and tariff developments add more questions to the macro picture. In equities, he talks about the key takeaways from Intel (INTC) earnings and AMD Inc.'s (AMD) climb following updates from its Advancing AI conference. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Luke Gromen. They discuss how the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for months, why crude oil prices did not respond as expected, and what may happen as the conflict re-escalates. They also cover precious metals, inflation, monetary policy, and other major macroeconomic developments. https://bit.ly/45gBPnZ    

Despite growing political resistance, investment in data centers isn't slowing. Ariana Salvatore explains why supply constraints may actually accelerate AI capital spending.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, I'll be talking about why we still expect robust AI capital spending in spite of some rising political pushback. It's Thursday, July 23rd at 10am in New York. It should be no surprise to our listeners that data center pushback, a topic that we've been following for some time, has been growing louder. But in 2026, it's accelerated meaningfully. Data we track suggests that an estimated $156 billion of projects were canceled or delayed in 2025. This year alone, in just the first quarter, we've seen almost that same exact number. The opposition is coming from several directions.Communities are raising concerns about rising electricity bills, environmental pressures related to water use, and the local quality of life effects of large-scale construction. But it's also coming from lawmakers across the aisle. State legislatures with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been advancing this type of policy.At the same time, we're forecasting a little less than a trillion dollars of AI CapEx this year alone, and we think it's an increasingly important component of the macroeconomic growth outlook.So how do we square that circle? First, and most importantly, we think this is primarily a supply-side risk rather than a demand-side one. We don't expect the backlash to materially reduce projections for compute demand. Instead, it could widen the gap between that demand and the industry's ability to bring new capacity online through things like permitting delays, grid interconnection constraints, and local opposition.Despite that more difficult political and infrastructure environment, our internet team, led by Brian Nowak, remain constructive on AI capital spending. Our broader thematic estimate for total AI CapEX, including the neo cloud providers, stands at approximately $870 billion in 2026, and we actually see risks skewed even higher from here.So why is spending still increasing as the environment for building data centers becomes more challenging? There are a few reasons.First, the AI ecosystem remains compute constrained. The urgency to invest has not diminished. In fact, growing social opposition and political uncertainty ahead of the 2028 presidential election may actually be encouraging hyperscalers to begin projects earlier, which our credit strategists outline as a potential scenario here. A pull forward of demand before the political and execution risk grows even louder.Second, the timelines associated with data center construction have become longer. From groundbreaking to operational launch, projects can now take as long as three years or even more. That gives companies a strong incentive to begin developing future capacity well in advance, even if the political pushback is strong.And third, the underlying demand signal is not slowing. Global weekly token usage, which our analysts view as an important proxy for compute demand, has increased since early January. It's rising and continues to do so throughout the course of this year. So, in short, the pushback is real, but it appears to be reshaping the build-out rather than stopping it. That's why our base case is for a conditional build-out. We think projects are likely to face greater scrutiny, we think projects are likely to face greater scrutiny, longer delays, and more requirements related to environmental impact and community benefits.But ultimately, we still think they cross the finish line. That could mean higher costs, it could mean longer development timelines, and greater geographic dispersion of projects away from the largest existing data center markets. It could also accelerate the shift toward on-site and behind-the-meter power generation. Fuel cells, turbines, and energy storage are becoming increasingly important as operators look for ways to reduce their reliance on these lengthy grid interconnection processes, and that can benefit companies that are able to bring those solutions to the forefront. Meanwhile, our U.S. equity strategy team maintains a relative preference for hyperscalers over semiconductors over the next several months. As you heard our CIO and Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explain yesterday, that's because the team sees the hyperscalers as early in discounting the market's renewed focus on CapEx discipline. Putting it all together, we see the growing pushback against data centers as representing a genuine risk to the pace, cost, and geography of the AI infrastructure build-out. But again, this isn't just a demand story, it's a supply story. And somewhat paradoxically, the scarcity and the uncertainty created by these constraints could actually end up pulling capital spend forward rather than reducing it.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

Bitcoin remains caught between strong ETF demand and an increasingly difficult macroeconomic environment. Matt explains how rising Treasury yields, the possibility of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, expensive equity valuations, and a weakening housing market are all competing for investor capital. Despite those headwinds, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $1 billion over the past week, helping stabilize prices while traditional finance continues moving deeper into blockchain through tokenized Treasury settlement and ongoing debate over the CLARITY Act. The episode also covers BitMEX's planned shutdown after 11 years, a series of cross-chain exploits that drained more than $35 million, the formation of a Bitcoin Security Consortium to prepare for future quantum computing risks, and Alphabet's decision to significantly increase AI infrastructure spending. Matt closes by arguing that while ETF inflows are providing support, Bitcoin still faces stiff competition from safer, yield-producing assets until the broader macroeconomic picture improves. Happy Hodling, Everyone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.Aahan Menon on Xhttps://x.com/AahanPrometheusPrometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-macro.comTopics coveredWhy geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficultWhat Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growthWhy AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economyHow household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profitsWhy the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock pricesHow oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest ratesWhy demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflationHow technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicatorsThe value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro dataWhat macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversificationTimestamps00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversifyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

"From each according to their ability, to each according to their need." Steve's guest, Breht O'Shea of Rev Left Radio and Red Menace podcast, believes that dedicating one's life to fighting for this vision, even without knowing the outcome, is more meaningful than pursuing capital's vision of wealth and status. Steve invited Breht to help tackle one of the most misunderstood and weaponized texts in Marxist theory: Vladimir Lenin's Left-Wing Communism: An Infantile Disorder, a book sometimes misused as a cudgel to pressure leftists into voting for the Democratic Party. To set the record straight, Breht places the 1920 pamphlet in its proper historical context. It was written after the successful Bolshevik Revolution to advise European socialist movements on how to avoid fatal mistakes. Together, Breht and Steve break down Lenin's dual critique: the ultra-left "infantile" error of purity-spiraled sectarianism, and the right-wing "opportunist" error of liquidating the revolutionary movement into bourgeois liberal politics. Lenin's strategic genius lies in maintaining firm revolutionary principles while remaining tactically flexible. The discussion extends beyond the text to cover the necessity of organization and discipline (democratic centralism), the constant threat of counter-revolution, the failure of social democracy, and how fascism functions as capitalism's immune response to left-wing threats. Breht O'Shea is the host of Rev Left Radio, the co-host of the Red Menace podcast, and author of the upcoming book "Letters to a Young Revolutionary" published by Iskra Books.  Check out Real Progressives website HERE Check out Macro n' Cheese podcast HERE Subscribe to their Substack HERE Sub to their YouTube page HERE

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why market leadership is rotating beyond semiconductors and where investors may find opportunities despite near-term volatility.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will explain why the recent volatility in markets makes sense. It's Wednesday, July 22nd at 2 p.m. in New York. So, let's get after it. The broadening trade is back and it's gaining steam. We established this thesis last week. Importantly, there's a key reason this broadening trade is likely to continue. One of the more crowded areas of the market—semiconductors—has lost its momentum. As I've also noted before, this is not a call that the AI cycle is over. However, stocks do trade on the rate of change in growth, and expectations often reach a place where they can no longer surprise on the upside. Earnings revisions tend to get too stretched, and capital starts looking for the next place where fundamentals are improving but positioning is still light. This is no different than what happened to other leadership groups earlier this year in areas like precious metals and energy stocks. Remember, I first made the call for market broadening in our November outlook. My view is that the economy had moved into a new expansion after the rolling recession ended in April 2025. Markets were starting to catch on before the Iran conflict interrupted that trend. Investors piled back into the AI trade—especially semis—as oil prices jumped and Fed expectations shifted more hawkish. Back in June, I noted that those earnings revisions were likely nearing their peak. Hyperscale stocks starting to lag was the first indication. Since semis ultimately depend on hyperscaler spending, that divergence usually doesn't last. It doesn't mean the buildout is ending. However, the spenders may be moving from blind enthusiasm to a more disciplined phase as a means of addressing the market's concerns about falling cash flows. We've seen this pattern before. Since ChatGPT launched, this ebbing and flowing between the hyperscaler and semiconductor stocks has happened three times. This is the fourth such adjustment, during which the hyperscaler stocks are likely to outperform the semis. Since a few weeks back, hyperscalers have outperformed semiconductors by almost 30 percent. Another consequence is that the major averages may trade lower in the near term. When a crowded, large-cap leadership group is unwinding, the index can look choppy even as the market underneath is improving. That's the key distinction. The index may struggle, but the broadening can still work. Over the next month, don't be surprised if the S&P 500 trades as low as 7000 before it makes a move to 8000 by year-end. Use this weakness to add to equity positions. I continue to like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Biotech. Discretionary Goods remains one of the cleaner expressions of the broadening thesis. Wallet share is shifting from services back toward goods, goods pricing is improving, and earnings revisions are strengthening. Transports continue to show improving revisions as volumes stabilize and pricing gets better. Biotech is one of the more attractive lower-rate beneficiaries, especially if policy expectations are too hawkish, as I think they are. On that last point, the Fed backdrop matters. The June FOMC meeting told us forward guidance is going to be limited, and the inflation path is going to drive policy. The softer-than-expected inflation data last week should allow the Fed to stay on hold rather than hiking. It may take the bond market a few more data points to fully re-price this view. Bottom line, the broadening is in gear, but it may not feel comfortable because it's happening while the crowded momentum trade unwinds, a process that is likely unfinished. That's usually how rotations in market leadership work. Like spring, it's often: in like a lion and out like a lamb. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

AI investment is reshaping the global outlook. In part one of this economic roundtable, our panel explores where the momentum is strongest — and where investment still needs to catch up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Seth Carpenter: And today is going to be our third quarter economic roundtable taking a wide-angle view on the global economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. Seth Carpenter: It's Monday, July 20th at 10am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since our last roundtable in April, the global economy has continued to face all sorts of shocks, a mix of resilience and friction. Inflation pressures have not disappeared. Energy and geopolitical risks have come up, they've receded, they've come back, they've receded all over the place But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about. And that is the AI-driven CapEx cycle. Michael, let me turn to you because the U.S. is a real focal point of all of this. Tell me a little bit about where Morgan Stanley Research is thinking about hyperscaler CapEx. How big it is? And then for you, when you think about the U.S. economy, just how big of a driver is it for what we're looking for in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, we continue to revise higher our estimates for hyperscaler and AI-related CapEx in the U.S. economy. We were thinking a little over a trillion for 2027. Now we're more like 1.2 - 1.3 trillion, maybe as high as 1.4 trillion in 2028. So, the level of hyperscaler spending continues to keep rising. The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow. But as you noted, it's still a major driver of momentum in the U.S. You would look at that headline number and think, "Wow, that's, you know, 3.5 percent or so of GDP. Must be a massive source of momentum for GDP growth." But roughly about 60 percent of that hyperscaler CapEx spending goes to items like computers and peripherals, equipment spending categories that have a very, very high import content. We still get a significant number that AI CapEx is probably contributing around 40 basis points to growth this year. Be a similar-sized amount perhaps next year.So, for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above 2 percent right now, maybe closer to 2.5 percent next year, that's a non-trivial amount. We just have to remember it's fueling growth around the world, just not here in the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, "Well, if it wasn't for AI CapEx, the U.S. economy wouldn't have grown at all." And that's clearly wrong, as you point out. But U.S. imports are necessarily exports from somewhere else. And, Chetan, if I can pull you into the story then, U.S. firms are buying a lot of AI-related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in your part of the world? And in particular, I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan, and maybe some other economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? Chetan Ahya: So, for Asia, this has definitely been a big boon. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming, and particularly for the ones which are exporting semiconductors to the U.S. They are seeing semiconductor exports growing by 90 percent. And when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductor exports, it's very tightly linked to the U.S. IT CapEx. And it's not surprising when Mike Gapen mentions about the imports going up. It's on the other side, helping Asia's exports quite meaningfully. So, so far, we've seen this benefiting Korea, number one, Taiwan, and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of U.S. AI CapEx. And of course, also not just U.S., but the other countries which are doing any little amount of CapEx on AI front, that's also helping these three economies in the region. Seth Carpenter: You've been doing a lot of work, Chetan, recently about how much the story can actually broaden out, that the AI CapEx cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story that there's a broader industrial cycle. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor of that story? Chetan Ahya: That's right, Seth. So, we are actually highlighting that there is a CapEx and industrial super cycle that is underway in Asia, and there are four components to this story. AI and semiconductors CapEx, which we just briefly discussed. Number two is energy. Number three is defense. And number four is industrial supply chain onshoring related CapEx. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most important part of this story, but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that... So, for Asia, AI and semiconductor companies CapEx is about $380 billion in 2026, but energy CapEx is going to be $900 billion. So, this is a far broader story than just AI for Asia. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me come back to you and to the U.S. then. So, isn't the growth story also broader than that as well domestically? So, what's going on in terms of consumer spending in the U.S., and is there a broader CapEx story in the U.S. as well? Michael Gapen: I would say, is it broader than that? I think maybe you could argue also it's narrower than that. Here's what I mean by that. As I noted AI CapEx contributing about 40 basis points to growth, it's certainly underpinning equity valuations in the U.S. and underpinning strong wealth creation. So about [$]180 trillion in household net worth in the U.S. About [$]55 trillion of that has been created in just the last five years alone, underpinned in part by AI-related spending and optimism about future profitability. That's really supported spending by upper income households. So, I think it's both investment-led and consumer-led, but they're inextricably linked. So, the positive for the U.S. is that it's providing a lot of resilience. The negative component of that is it feels like momentum in the U.S. is narrowly driven. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let me maybe jump in here from Europe to provide some perspective from the other side. So, I think it's a fair summary to say that AI investment is not yet, or maybe will never get there, dominating the business cycle. What we do have instead is an unusually consumption-driven expansion. That has to do not so much with an extraordinary strength of consumption, but more of an absence of other factors. Now, prospectively looking forward, we think the fiscal expansion might help lifting us a little bit. And then it is really the debate how much AI investment can arrive in Europe. For now, I would say it's probably a factor of 20 that separates European investment plans from the plans we know that exist for the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Let me stick with you then in Europe because you brought up fiscal as one of the factors going on here and where it's going… You and your team recently wrote a blue paper talking about what the outlook is for fiscal policy in Europe, and in particular, we had this era of cheap debt. Interest rates in Europe were low, at times negative. It was super easy to borrow. Not as much happened then. There's been a shift towards more fiscal expansion at the same time that interest rates have gone up, causing the cost of debt to go up. Feels like there's a lot of push and pull going on. Can you unpack for us a little bit what was in that paper you wrote, what's going on with fiscal policy in Europe, especially in Germany? And what it might mean over time for Euro-area countries? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, so I think fiscal policy in Europe really is looking at a regime shift. So, there is this very famous, probably in the U.S. even more so than here, notion that the Europeans have built a very comfortable welfare state. And that's true if you just look at the accounting from a GDP perspective. It's close to 50 percent that, you know, budgets are actually extended on welfare spending. And now you have three structural headwinds for any type of fiscal spend. So, one is aging related costs, you mentioned it already. Defense spending has to increase significantly, and the interest rate costs will also rise significantly. All of that means there will be very hard choices to be made. The one thing that actually could help here is growth. Growth is the one thing that's, for now at least, missing, at least in comparison to the U.S. It's probably half what we expect, what the U.S. colleagues think is in stake for the U.S., and a quarter or even less than that of what is there in Asia. So, growth is really the key, the solution, the answer to everything in Europe. More growth than just 1 percent, which is potential, would help solving that fiscal challenge. For now, it looks really, really like an uphill battle. Returning to Germany, it's the one country that has a very good fiscal starting position. They are pushing a lot but they're to some extent pushing a string. So, even with the German huge fiscal package, given that private sector investments so far are absent, doesn't get us a ton of growth. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, maybe I'll come back to you before we close part one of this roundtable. The AI CapEx cycle started with AI, broadened out further. How long do you expect this cycle to last? How durable can it be? And how might it compare to previous CapEx cycles? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we think this will be a multi-year CapEx cycle. And when we are thinking about the duration of the cycle, there are two things that I would keep in mind. Number one is that most of the drivers that we just discussed – the CapEx on AI, energy, defense, and industrial supply chain onshoring related investments – these are all structural drivers. So, we think these are going to continue for some more time. At this point of time, we have the visibility for this cycle to be lasting for three-four more years. And then the second point of framework that I would keep in mind is that the corporate balance sheets are in a pretty good shape. So, when you are thinking about the leverage in the private sector, you can look at both households and the corporate sector balance sheet. But since the cycle is CapEx driven, we are looking at the corporate balance sheets, and they are in a pretty good shape. Across the region, corporate debt to GDP is below where it was in 2019. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me, let me wrap up quickly with you. We talked about AI, AI CapEx. For now, that's a very strong demand story. When are we going to see a supply side of things coming from AI? Are you already seeing a big contribution to GDP and growth from productivity coming from AI? Michael Gapen: We are, but not outside of the high-tech sectors, and we're seeing limited, what I'll call labor market restructuring of tasks and occupations beyond high AI-exposed occupations. So right now, everything is still very isolated I think maybe as we get into 2029 and beyond, so as Chetan says, we probably have a three to four-year super cycle here around a build-out phase. Then we might see some of that broader-based diffusion to other non-tech sectors in the economy. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, for you, let's wrap up here. So, what is the state of play for the build-out in the CapEx cycle for AI in Europe? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's very early stages. As I said before, we really; we connected to all the industry experts or analysts covering the sector and the total plans are a factor of 20 below what we see in the U.S. by just the seven hyperscalers. So, I would say very fragmented, very small, in general. Not only AI. I think the one thing I would be looking at for any type of sign of revival, sign of growth is investment. The second would be investment. And you can guess what the third would be… Investments in the core countries. That's really what we need to see, and we haven't seen much in Germany or France on this front. Seth Carpenter:That's a great place for us to stop today. We talked about the real side of the economy, AI, CapEx, trade. Tomorrow we're going to come back, and we'll talk about how that growth outlook affects inflation. And once you start talking about growth and inflation, you got to talk about policy, and that's where we'll be tomorrow. Mike, Jens, and Chetan, thank you for joining today. And for the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for Part 2 of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all. Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for.  Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.

George found a 2018 Reddit thread about himself he had no idea existed. People were asking if he was still alive. It was ranking on page one. Shaping how strangers thought about him. And he had zero input on it. That's reputation. It doesn't wait for you to show up. This is the masterclass. Four weeks in the making, taught at a live event, and refined through client work, George breaks down everything you need to know about online reputation: what it actually is, how to audit it, how to manage it, and the mindset to carry it forward.  What You'll Learn In This Episode: What curb appeal really means for your business and why it speaks before you do The four-step audit to run on your own name today How AI is surfacing reviews and content from 2012 that you've completely forgotten about The 80/20 strategy for managing your online presence without burning out Micro vs. macro reviews and how to capture and use both The biggest missed opportunity in reputation management (it's free and takes 10 minutes) The painting vs. garden framework for platforms you no longer actively use Key Takeaways: ✔️Reputation is how someone would talk about you and answer a question about you when you're not in the room. It's not your Instagram. It's all of it. ✔️AI is crawling everything, blog posts from 2012, Reddit threads, old reviews and surfacing them when prospects research you. Two clients found George through ChatGPT recommendations. ✔️If you haven't Googled yourself in a private browser in the last 30 days, you don't know what strangers are finding. Go do it now. ✔️Micro reviews are the unsolicited praise happening in DMs, comments, and texts. Document every one. Macro reviews are end-of-engagement assets. Capture both systematically. ✔️The biggest missed opportunity: responding to every review, good and bad. Not responding online is the equivalent of staring at a customer in silence when they ask you a question. ✔️The painting vs. garden rule: if you can't tend to a platform consistently, paint it. Update the bio, pin a redirect post, get the contact info right. Don't leave an overgrown yard for strangers to find. ✔️Scaling your reputation doesn't mean automating the human touches. It means protecting them as you grow. ✔️Your perception is their reality and it's being shaped right now, whether you're paying attention or not. Timestamps & Highlights: [00:00] — The Reddit thread, the AI rankings, and why reputation can't wait [01:07] — Curb appeal defined: what people decide before they ever talk to you [05:00] — The real definition of reputation and why it's bigger than any platform [09:00] — How AI is surfacing forgotten content and the two clients who found George through ChatGPT [14:00] — The four-step reputation audit to run today [22:00] — The 80/20 strategy: where to focus your time and energy online [28:00] — Micro vs. macro reviews explained [33:00] — The biggest missed opportunity: responding to every single review [38:00] — From 70 to 6,000 comments in a month, the comment response case study [40:00] — The painting vs. garden framework for dormant platforms [43:00] — Reputation mindset: protect the human, let AI handle the rest [45:00] — The 48-hour challenge: find one gap and fix it Your Challenge This Week: Open an incognito window. Google yourself. Then ask an AI platform what it finds about you. Find one gap. Fix it in the next 48 hours. Then text or email George and tell him what you found. Follow George: @itsgeorgebryant Work with George:The Alliance: Community for entrepreneurs building reputations worth talking about.  1:1 Coaching: Limited spots. Apply at mindofgeorge.com/coaching-consultingLive Retreats: In-person experiences where reputation, relationships, and strategy converge.

In this episode the guys break down five weird and common things people do that cause or worsen chronic pain — poor sleep, inflammatory diet, macro and micro deficiencies, dehydration, and shallow breathing. They cover the difference between acute pain and chronic pain, how movement pattern issues are almost always the root cause, and why the experience of pain can be just as real as the physiological signal. They also get into Arthur Saxon pressing 370 pounds overhead with one arm in 1905, eating 24 eggs and 10 pounds of meat a day, the genetics study showing hyper responders gain three times as much muscle as average responders, Sal going back to jiu jitsu and the whole family trying the Organifi parasite cleanse, Manukora honey on mat burns, and how poor sleep is the number one injury predictor — worse than skipping a warmup. Then they coach live callers submitted through mplivecaller.com. MAPS Upper Lower:⁠ https://mapsupperlower.com⁠Code: LAUNCH for 40% off. Includes male and female programs, workout videos, exercise demos, coaching videos and live coaching with Cole. Mind Pump Fitness Coaching:⁠ https://mindpumpfitnesscoaching.com⁠1.9 NASM CEUs SPONSORS Organifi (natural parasite cleanse):⁠ https://organifi.com/mindpump⁠Code: MINDPUMP for 20% off. Run two cycles 15 days apart. Discussed on air — Sal's whole family has started doing it. Manukora Manuka Honey:⁠ https://manukora.com/MINDPUMP⁠Code: MINDPUMP for up to 31% off plus $25 in free gifts with the Starter Kit. Discussed on air for wound healing and anti-inflammatory properties. Eight Sleep (Pod 5 Ultra) : ⁠https://eightsleep.com/mindpump⁠Code: MINDPUMP for up to $350 off. HSA/FSA may qualify — qualified customers save about 30% on average through Truemed. Truemed is for qualified customers. HSA/FSA tax savings vary. LINKS Submit a live caller question:⁠ https://mplivecaller.com⁠ Mind Pump Store:⁠ https://mindpumpstore.com⁠ Maps Fitness Products:⁠ https://mapsfitnessproducts.com⁠ Instagram: @mindpumpmedia 0:00 - Intro 2:20 - 5 weird things you do that make chronic pain worse 5:45 - Acute pain vs. chronic pain and why movement pattern issues are almost always the root cause 12:32 - Weird cause #1: Poor sleep — why it's worse for injury risk than skipping your warmup 16:00 - Weird cause #2: Diet and inflammation — Sal's gluten reaction and how to test for food intolerances 19:31 - Weird cause #3: Macro and micro deficiencies — protein, fat, magnesium and vitamin D 22:53 - Weird cause #4: Water intake — why hydration directly changes pain perception 26:52 - Weird cause #5: Shallow breathing — how breathing patterns keep muscles chronically tight 34:12 - Arthur Saxon — 370lb one-arm press in 1905, 24 eggs for breakfast and 10 pounds of meat at dinner 43:01 - Genetics study: hyper responders gain three times more muscle than average in six months 47:17 - Sal back at jiu jitsu, Manukora honey on mat burns and the whole family on parasite cleanses 1:00:32 - Caller: Candy (California) — went from 34 to 28% body fat eating more, freaked out and cut calories, gets a coach 1:16:26 - Caller: Jessica (Massachusetts) — 9 months postpartum, eating disorder history, 1742 calories, redlining 1:32:36 - Caller: Ruth (New Jersey) — 55 years old, chronic dieting history, gut issues derailing reverse diet 1:45:14 - Caller: Angela (Washington) — trainer and business owner, 20% body fat, chasing goals and needs a new direction