Podcasts about Macro

The American education system is a trap. For those who fall into it and are looking for an exit, there are amazing options available for parents to take control of this important situation. Staying inside a broken government indoctrination system that fails on every level to prepare students for life is no longer acceptable. Brett Pike's Classical Learner curriculum has helped thousands of parents make the move into homeschooling, while developing a tight network and amazing resources. These days, if you want an education worthy of freedom, you will have to go out and take it.  — Above Phone | Black Friday Sale: https://abovephone.com/activistpost/ — Guest Links: Brett Pike: www.ClassicalLearner.com  Promo Code: MACRO — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

In this episode of the Crypto Rundown Brendan and Tevo break down Bitcoin's sharp move below 100K and a Fear & Greed Index reading near historic panic levels, arguing that, historically, these zones have been great long-term entry points even if more short-term downside is possible. You walk through Bitcoin and Ethereum technicals, highlighting broken support, 200-day moving averages, and RSI setups while stressing caution on leverage but continued dollar-cost averaging for long-term bags. On the fundamental side, you cover JP Morgan's JPM Coin on Base, Tom Lee's aggressive Ethereum target, record-breaking Solana and XRP ETF launches, and a big outflow day from Bitcoin ETFs that doesn't match the overwhelmingly bullish institutional trend. You wrap with a discussion of underperforming fund managers, potential “stimmy” and Trump baby accounts, and a reminder that despite the chop and pain, crypto isn't going anywhere—and everyone is still secretly waiting for altcoin season.Brendan 6 Week Technical Analysis Trading Course https://www.cryptorevolution.com/brendans-mbr-program?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Rundown&utm_term=20251112Momentum Money Makers VIPwww.cryptorevolution.com/memecoins?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=MMVIP&utm_term=DescriptionCheck out Plus500: https://plus500.comGet immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio for just $1.00 today! https://www.crypto101insider.com/cryptnation-directm6pypcy1?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=DescriptionGet your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution" and start making big profits from buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency today: http://www.cryptorevolution.com/free?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=DescriptionChapters00:00 — Intro, show is back, and framing the episode around big downside volatility and Bitcoin breaking below 100K.01:20 — Fear & Greed Index deep dive, comparisons to past panic moments (tariffs crash, COVID) and what that's meant historically.04:40 — Macro backdrop recap: tariffs, recession fears, and why this drawdown feels different from February even with similar fear readings.07:10 — Bitcoin technical analysis: 200-day moving average breaks, failed breakouts, support/resistance zones, and what levels to watch next.11:50 — Ethereum technicals: similar breakdown structure, potential targets in the 2.7–2.8K zone, and why Brendan is cautious short term but accumulating long term.15:10 — How Brendan is using RSI and higher lows in oversold territory to time entries, plus his micro bull run TA course + live sessions.18:05 — JP Morgan's JPM Coin launches on Base; Jamie Dimon's “capitulation” and what it signals about big-bank adoption of crypto rails.20:20 — Tom Lee's ultra-bullish Ethereum call (9–12K by January), how that ties into stablecoins/tokenization, and your reaction to how realistic that is.23:40 — Solana ETFs (like BSO L) smashing 2025 volume records, then XRP's XRPC ETF topping even that with the biggest day-one volume of the year.27:10 — Bitcoin ETFs see their second-largest day of outflows ever; discussion of “why the panic?” given how strong the fundamentals still look.30:10 — Underperforming fund managers, year-end “window dressing,” and how that might create messy price action into Q4 versus a long-term retail mindset.34:00 — Bitwise chart on who really owns Bitcoin, speculation on future government/bank buying, “stimmy”/tariff check chatter, Trump baby accounts, and closing altcoin-season meme + outro.MERCH STOREhttps://cryptorevolutionmerch.com/Subscribe to YouTube for Exclusive Content:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast?sub_confirmation=1Follow us on social media for leading-edge crypto updates and trade alerts:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101*This is NOT financial, tax, or legal advice*Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved  ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofrCreative Commons — Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported — CC BY-ND 3.0 Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZAROMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Our Sponsors:* Check out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.com/card* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out Plus500: https://plus500.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Após uma semana em que o PL Antifacção dominou os debates no Congresso, a equipe de análise política da XP fala sobre os impactos da entrada da segurança pública na agenda de discussões, já olhando para as eleições de 2026, à medida que o governo busca uma linha argumentativa para fazer frente à oposição no tema. Em paralelo, o processo do ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro avança mais uma casa no STF, enquanto a equipe econômica se prepara para apresentação do relatório bimestral de novembro. Acompanhe o nosso conteúdo também no aplicativo XP Política e Macro, disponível nas lojas de aplicativo para IOS e Android. 

The founder of Autonomy Unlimited, Richard Grove, is back to explain what he has learned from running 10 seasons of the program, and how the students have benefitted from the network built over the years. With hard times on the horizon, the discussion turns to what people can do to brace for what is heading our way, and how to prosper from the opportunities that will present themselves in the future. With banks on the edge of collapse, the sooner people reevaluate their relationship with them, the better off they will be for what is heading our way. — Guest: Richard Grove Grand Theft World Podcast: https://grandtheftworld.com/ Autonomy Courses: Autonomy Unlimited ChatGPT Course Trivium Method Permaculture — Subscribe to the Macroaggressions Video Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Today, we cover the very ugly day for US equity markets, with the selling quite broad, but most concentrated in AI-related and crypto-related names as the latter is in a real funk and suggests poor liquidity. With Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, we pick out several names to discuss including Oracle and Disney. Also, we look to next Wednesday's Nvidia earnings report as the next critical event risk for this market, noting other big retail names reporting in the US as well, including Walmart. Macro, FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.  Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed's dilemma, AI's real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.Topics covered:• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending• The Fed's policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternativesTimestamps:00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns

US equity futures point to a weaker open. Asian markets traded sharply lower, while European equity futures also signaled early losses. Big tech remains the market's key pressure point after broad declines Thursday, with Tesla, Nvidia and Google leading weakness as AI-linked momentum unwound. Furthermore, labor-market softening stayed in focus after reports that Verizon plans to cut about 15K jobs, while the extended data vacuum drew attention given that after next week's likely September payroll release, major macro data are not expected again until early December. Macro uncertainty tightened after hawkish Fed commentary pushed December rate-cut odds below 50% and lifted Treasury yields. In addition, China's latest activity and credit data showed industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment weakening to the slowest pace in over a year, reinforcing global risk-off sentiment.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Paramount, Comcast, Netflix, Warner Bros, Apple, OpenAI

It used to be simple. Forex ruled weekdays, crypto ruled weekends. But these days, the two are blending fast. Traders now jump between both worlds: reading macro headlines for clues on Bitcoin, and using crypto charts to fine-tune timing in traditional currencies. The New 24/7 Mindset Forex has always been structured. Markets open Monday in Sydney, close Friday in New York, and everyone gets a break. Crypto doesn't. It runs every hour, every day, meaning opportunity and risk are always alive somewhere. The traders who adapt best learn to handle both speeds. They bring forex discipline to crypto's chaos and crypto's flexibility to forex's predictability. That's what makes the combination powerful. Two Markets, Same Emotions On paper, the differences are clear: Factor Forex Crypto Trading hours 24 hours, 5 days 24/7 Regulation Highly structured Still maturing Drivers Central banks, inflation, policy Supply, adoption, sentiment Volatility Moderate Extreme But beneath those differences, the same story plays out: price moves on emotion. Confidence builds, fear returns, markets overreact, and human behaviour draws the chart. Whether you're watching GBP/USD or Bitcoin/USDT, it's still the same psychology unfolding in real time. When Macro News Hits Both Macroeconomic reports used to matter only to traditional traders. Not anymore. Crypto responds to the same signals that drive forex: Inflation numbers - Hotter data makes rate hikes more likely, pushing investors into defensive mode. Interest-rate changes - When borrowing gets cheaper, traders pile back into risk assets, including crypto. Employment figures - Strong data supports growth; weak data brings fear. The overlap has become obvious. Watch how Bitcoin reacts to a surprise rate decision or a shock jobs report. It moves with the dollar now, not against it. That's why experienced traders use macro calendars as much for Ethereum as for the euro. Why 24/7 Markets Change Everything When forex closes for the weekend, crypto keeps going. That single fact rewires trading rhythm completely. Here's what that means in practice: Price can gap on Monday because crypto traded through the weekend. News released late Friday still moves digital assets instantly. Strategies built for weekdays alone can miss entire swings. The solution is to plan smarter. Use alerts, automate parts of your setup, and let the market come to you instead of chasing every candle. The Value of Structure in Chaos Forex traders entering crypto often find it wild at first. But their background gives them a quiet edge: they're already trained to think in probabilities, to use stop-losses, and to measure position size properly. Those habits protect them when crypto volatility spikes. Meanwhile, crypto traders who step into forex bring something valuable too: they're fearless, quick to adapt, and comfortable making decisions without perfect information. Blending those strengths creates the kind of discipline most traders only develop after years of mistakes. Why Broker Choice Still Matters It's easy to get caught up in strategy and forget the basics: execution quality, order reliability, and security. That's where working with a regulated forex broker makes all the difference. Tight spreads and consistent pricing mean your analysis actually matches what happens in the market. It's also peace of mind: your funds sit under proper oversight, not floating in a grey zone. Hybrid traders often keep their forex and crypto exposure in separate accounts, but both benefit from the same rule: good execution beats clever theory. Practise Before You Mix Markets Before running strategies across forex and crypto, test how they behave under real market pressure. A demo account for trading lets you do exactly that without financial risk. You can try switching between asset types, simulate weekend moves, or see how macro data affects crypto pairs. It's the fastest way to understand timing differences and spot where you might be stretched ...

Als het aan het demissionaire kabinet ligt dan komt er in 2026 een verbod op achteraf betaaldiensten voor minderjarigen. Raakt het buy-now-pay-later-platform Riverty daarmee een hoop klanten kwijt? En het aantal transacties dat in 2024 door de branche werd verwerkt steeg met 17 procent naar 53 miljoen. Groeit achteraf betalen ook dit jaar even hard door? Lenhard Hubscher, directeur Benelux en Frankrijk bij Riverty is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Ondernemerspanel Werkgevers willen dat werknemers weer vaker op kantoor verschijnen. En: vintagewinkels worden steeds populairder, maar kan je er ook geld mee verdienen? Dat en meer bespreken we in het ondernemerspanel met: Hans Mulder, directeur Viagroep en Leen Zevenbergen, oprichter van B-Corps Europe en walnotenboer. Luister l Ondernemerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shiva Joon, Data Scientist, and Duncan Toms, Multi-Asset Strategist, look at how artificial intelligence is helping to drive the stellar performance of many US companies.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/HJJQchfStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

De momento sin macro en EE.UU a la espera de recopilar toda la información, pero, ¿qué puede pasar en la última reunión de tipos del año de la FED? Con Brais Prieto, analista técnico y macro en Marot Strategies.

Bijna tien jaar nadat de Britten voor de Brexit stemden, is eindelijk duidelijk wat de economische impact hiervan was. Zoals al lang en breed duidelijk is, heeft het de Britten niet de economische voorspoed opgeleverd die men soms voorgeschoteld kreeg. Nu is de schade ook becijferd. De economie van het Verenigd Koninkrijk zou zijn 6 tot 8 procent groter zijn als het vertrek uit de Europese Unie niet heeft plaatsgevonden, vertelt macro-econoom Edin Mujagic.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They'll discuss everything from the reopening rally to precious metals to energy markets. https://bit.ly/49SQx89  

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

Today we look at another fascinating session full of divergences, particularly the clearly emerging pattern of AI "picks and shovels" sellers (hardware makers, particularly in chips) performing well versus the biggest spenders on "miners" or those investing in AI data center capacity. Meanwhile, will there be any power to drive further growth? A rundown of the massive comeback in gold, energy and more with with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, notably connecting Trump's turn left and fresh talk of "stimmies" or stimulus checks and the implications. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?29:03 - Credit markets29:07 - K-shaped economy explained37:08 - Position for currency deterioration38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 202540:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem50:59 - What's keeping James up at night55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information

Gonzalo Cañete, jefe de estratega de mercado global para ATFX, sigue de cerca los datos de PIB en Reino Unido, la situación de Escocia y Valoración del dato de Producción Industrial de la eurozona.

Topdesk begon ooit als Delftse softwareontwikkelaar, maar groeide in dertig jaar uit tot een internationale speler. Het bedrijf ontkomt niet aan de enorme AI-transformatie. Wat betekent kunstmatige intelligentie voor de toekomst van de servicedesk op kantoor en voor de mensen die daar werken? Wolter Smit, topman en aandeelhouder van softwareontwikkelaar Topdesk, is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Boardroompanel ABN Amro legt bijna een miljard op tafel voor een overname van hypotheekbank NIBC. En: het bestuur van Albert Heijn kijkt met onvrede naar een protestactie van FNV. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het boardroompanel met Lizzy Doorewaard, toezichthouder bij onder andere de NPO en Anton Wiggers, partner bij Themis Company. Luister Boardroompanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our dependency on technology has always been an Achilles' Heel for the Western world, as people become less self-sufficient and more dependent on the State to solve their problems. If the Parasite Class wishes to rule over humanity with digital chains, they will need to control five segments of society first. Our communication has been under surveillance forever, but now they have set their sights on controlling digital health through the Internet of Bodies. Privacy is under attack, and the banking system is a house of cards looking for a reason to topple over. Once that happens, it won't be long before the military steps in to settle things down. Digital problems with analog and authoritarian solutions. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Con una reapertura del gobierno estadounidense en proceso, ¿qué esperar de la FED? Lo comentamos con Joaquín Robles, director de Ventas de Banco BIG.

Auto-importeur Louwman importeert al ruim 100 jaar auto's, van Dodge tot Toyota tot Kia. Drie jaar geleden haalde het bedrijf het Chinese elektrische automerk BYD naar Nederland, maar recent raakte het de distributierechten kwijt. Wat betekent dat voor Louwman in de al kwakkelende automarkt? Paul de Krom, topman van Louwman Group is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Jacobs Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Vandaag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Bas Jacobs, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić of Arnoud Boot. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Lobbypanel De VVD zit krap bij kas en vraagt een financiële bijdrage aan hun eigen politici. En: de aandeelhouders van Magnum hoeven vijf jaar geen dividendbelasting te betalen. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het lobbypanel met: Aukje Ravensbergen, director [DUS NIET DIRECTEUR] en talent manager bij Wepublic Frits Huffnagel, oprichter van Castro Communicatie en ex-wethouder van Amsterdam en Den Haag. Luister l Lobbypanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

William Blair macro analyst Richard de Chazal and group head of energy and power technologies Jed Dorsheimer explore the seismic changes reshaping the U.S. energy landscape as rising electricity costs and surging demand—especially from AI—put unprecedented pressure on the grid. The discussion also unpacks a five pillar plan for energy abundance, the balance between renewables and firm baseload power, and the economic and geopolitical forces driving a new era in energy markets.

One-time stories inspire emotion; longitudinal stories build transformation. The most successful fundraisers don't just tell what happened, they connect the dots over time, showing progress, growth, and real impact. When donors see themselves within the story—woven into its chapters—they move from giving out of urgency to giving out of identity. Storytelling isn't about communication; it is communication. And when done longitudinally, it becomes the foundation for trust, loyalty, and transformational giving.

Ever had a patient swear their bite feels “off” - even though the articulating paper marks look perfect and you've adjusted everything twice over? Or maybe you've placed a beautiful quadrant of onlays, only to have them return saying, “these three teeth still feel proud.” If that sounds familiar, you're not alone. In this episode, I'm joined (in my car, no less!) by Dr. Robert Kerstein, who was back in the UK to teach about digital occlusion and the power of the T-Scan and ‘disclusion time reduction therapy'. We dig into why a patient's bite can still feel “off” even when everything looks right, how timing is just as important as force, and why splints and Botox don't always solve TMD. Robert explains why micro-occlusion is the real game-changer, how scanners could mislead you, and why dentistry still clings to articulating paper. So if you've ever wondered why “perfect” cases still come back with bite complaints, or whether timing data can actually prevent fractures and headaches, this episode will give you plenty to chew on - pun intended. https://youtu.be/0lCAsjFhsXI Watch PDP247 on YouTube Key Takeaways: Micro-occlusion, not just “dots and lines,” is the real driver of patient comfort and long-term tooth health. T-Scan measures both force and timing, which scanners and articulating paper cannot capture. Many patients show signs of occlusal damage without symptoms. Disclusion Time Reduction (DTR) treats TMD neurologically without splints, Botox, or TENS. Relying on occlusograms alone for guiding reduction is risky. Dentists can reduce post-treatment complaints by balancing micro-occlusion with T-Scan. Adopting T-Scan requires proper training. CR can be a convenient reference point, but MIP works well in most cases if micro-occlusion is managed. Objective, repeatable data builds patient trust and provides medico-legal reassurance. Highlights of this episode: 00:00 Teaser 01:13 Intro 4:41 Protrusive Dental Pearl -  Removing a Temporarily Cemented Crown 06:39 Introduction 08:48 Global Training Footprint 09:32 What Robert Teaches (DTR & T-Scan) 09:55 Occlusion as Neurologic 10:33 Macro vs Micro-Occlusion 11:33 Neural Pathway 15:00 MIP vs CR Framing 16:48 Signs Without Symptoms 19:16 Silent Majority 20:08 Why Treat Asymptomatic Signs 20:50 Disclusion and MIP 22:28 Occlusogram Caveats 24:53 Midroll 28:14 Occlusogram Caveats 28:29 Why Occlusograms Mislead 29:21 Don't Adjust From Color Alone 31:47 What Pressure/Timing Enable Clinically 33:02 Prosthetic Reality Check 34:46 Patient-Perceived Comfort 35:29 Why Isn't T-Scan Everywhere? 36:29 Political Resistance 37:42 CR as Utility 38:18 MIP and Vertical Dimension. 39:48 Macro ≠ Micro 41:00 Material Longevity Benefits 41:57 T-Scan Training 42:58 Three Competencies to Master 44:20 Micro-Occlusion Rules 44:46 Outro If you want to get more clued up on TMD, tune into this episode for the latest insights and guidelines! PDP213 - TMD New Guidelines -  however be warned that the guidelines are contradictory to what Dr. Kerstein advises….ah the wonderful world of TMD!  #OcclusionTMDandSplints #OrthoRestorative This episode is eligible for 0.5 CE credit via the quiz on Protrusive Guidance. This episode meets GDC Outcomes A, C. AGD Subject Code: 250 – Clinical Dentistry (Occlusion/Restorative) Aim: to explore the role of micro-occlusion and timing in TMD and restorative success, highlighting how tools like T-Scan provide data that other tools cannot. This episode seeks to give dentists practical insights into diagnosing, preventing, and treating occlusal problems with greater accuracy. Dentists will be able to: Describe the role of micro-occlusion and disclusion time in TMD symptoms and tooth wear. Recognising the limitations of traditional methods of occlusion adjustment.

Na edição 175 do Outliers InfoMoney, Clara Sodré e Fabiano Cintra iniciam uma nova série dedicada a revelar as melhores oportunidades de investimento no exterior. O convidado da vez é Marc Forster, head Brasil da Franklin Templeton, que dá uma verdadeira aula sobre CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations), os chamados Créditos Estruturados Globais. Com uma estrutura semelhante à dos FIDCs, os CLOs vêm ganhando destaque como uma alternativa interessante para quem busca bons spreads em meio a um cenário macroeconômico desafiador.Neste episódio, você vai entender como funcionam os CLOs, por que eles têm atraído investidores globais e quais as oportunidades nesse mercado bilionário. Um episódio essencial para quem quer expandir a carteira e explorar o universo da renda fixa internacional com uma gestora que administra mais de US$ 1,5 trilhão em ativos.Aproveite as oportunidades e confira este novo episódio do Outliers!

Met 26 diepvries-distributiecentra verspreid over de hele wereld en een nieuw controlecentrum in Breda behoort NewCold tot een van de marktleiders in de diepvrieslogistiek. Maar hoe gaat het bedrijf om met de drukte op het stroomnet? Bram Hage van NewCold is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Jacobs Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggerspanel Kunnen beleggers opgelucht ademhalen nu de shutdown van de Amerikaanse overheid bijna ten einde is? En: beurslegende en beleggingsicoon en Warren Buffett heeft zijn laatste advies geschreven. Dat en meer bespreken we in het beleggerspanel met Martine Hafkamp (Fintessa Vermogensbeheer) en Lodewijk van der Kroft (vermogensbeheerder Comges). Luister l Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tomás Opazo, analista de AFI, repasa la macro de la jornada pasando por los datos del Índice ZEW, el paro en Reino Unido y la política monetaria en EE.UU.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it's not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown. But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets – that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to "run it hot" means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But, without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself. And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity.The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits, like SNAP, halted. As a result, Consumer Discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over. The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.So what does all of this all mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what have been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run it hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Topics:(00:08) - Feeling old is a lifestyle problem (02:38) - What happens when all the right things leave us tired and exhausted (08:42) - We need to stop comparing the easiest time of our life to right now (14:19) - What about move more? (19:48) - Your mindset matters more than you realize (21:57) - The fix is...

Send us a textBill and Bryan break down the difference between macro and micro sales skills—and why both matter more than you think. Inspired by a prospect who called out his own team for not asking clarifying questions, this episode explores the big-picture capabilities that separate average performers from top producers.They cover essential macro skills including strategic planning (with outcomes AND behaviors), reverse engineering your goals, financial literacy for sales professionals, explaining complex concepts clearly, and the art of storytelling. Plus: the "Gen Z stare," why unlearning quickly is your competitive advantage, and how one sales leader couldn't name five conquest accounts.This is part one of a two-part series. Micro skills coming next week.=================================Is it time to make a BOLD move in your business? If so, download our brand new book, "12 Bold Moves - Insider Secrets to Reinventing Yourself and Your Business." http://12boldmoves.comThe Insider program is open for enrollment. To check out our small learning group, go to http://advancedsellingpodcast.com/insiderIf you haven't already, join 14,000+ other sales professionals in our LinkedIn group at advancedsellingpodcast.com/linkedin

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:09 - Macro view5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming11:00 - Dollar outlook 12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 203017:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality 35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020 40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars 40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession 41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out 42:30 - Immigration 48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now 49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility 50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment 52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down 54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research

Thinking about a career in finance and want to build confidence in your market views? In this episode, Anthony Cheung is joined by Mike Bell, a former J.P. Morgan macro strategist, to break down how to think clearly about the economy, communicate under pressure, and make your ideas land.Mike explains how to navigate the business cycle, what really matters when forming a macro view, and how to present with clarity - whether it's to clients, in interviews, or on live TV. If you want to sharpen your market thinking and sound confident doing it, this episode is packed with practical insights you can use right away.(00:00) Intro to Mike Bell(03:06) Politics Meets Economics(07:41) Business Cycle Basics(13:05) Inflation and Recession(17:39) Tech Shocks & AI(22:36) Models vs. Discretion(31:15) Learning Public Speaking(35:28) Preparing for Pressure(51:25) Posting on LinkedIn

Rupert Mitchell is a capital markets veteran with 30 years of institutional experience across three continents who now runs Blind Squirrel Macro, combining mythology, storytelling, and contrarian thinking to help investors understand why narrative often matters more than numbers in macro investing.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Rupert discusses the British education philosophy: learning to learn rather than narrow vocational training, creating adaptable generalists who aren't limited by having "an amazing hammer where everything has to look like a nail"6:00 - Bearings collapse story: Fresh graduate Rupert spent his entire £400 bonus on a briefcase (still uses it 30 years later) hours before the 250-year-old merchant bank collapsed overnight due to Nick Leeson's derivatives trades11:00 - Key lesson from Bearings: "Things are never as bad as you fear or as good as you would hope" - the "we're so back, it's so over" cycle teaches moderation in expectations and avoiding extrapolation extremes16:00 - The mythology connection: Rupert's father, a military history writer, taught him that "most people don't really have a sense of history beyond about five or 10 years" - understanding cyclical patterns creates edge21:00 - Chinese EV revolution firsthand: Witnessing Mercedes lose luxury market dominance to BYD in China taught Rupert that establishment brands can fall faster than anyone expects when technology shifts33:00 - The generalist advantage: "I'm never baffled or scared of a new product, topic, market or theme" - breadth beats depth when markets constantly evolve and surprises come from unexpected directions45:00 - AI investment paradox: Despite machine learning being used in biotech for years, healthcare hasn't announced breakthrough cycles - this "monkey on my back" makes Rupert question AI hype narratives54:00 - On success: "Success has to be being proud of what you've done, right? And that's not a number. Some of the most miserable people I know are wealthier than God"Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm's employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Global growth is on the rise again, while the US has seen upgrades to its growth forecasts, despite the ongoing shutdown. But while the US seems in good shape, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, there are early signs of softness in China, based on import numbers and high frequency data. Investec Focus Radio SA

Vijf jaar nadat de advocatuur werd opgeschrikt door de grootschalige fraude van topnotaris Frank Oranje is landsadvocaat Pels Rijcken iedere dag nog bezig om de reputatie hoog te houden. En: de landsadvocaat is regelmatig in de rechtszaal te vinden, omdat belangenorganisaties steeds vaker naar de rechter stappen om politiek beleid af te dwingen. Sandra van Heukelom-Verhage, bestuursvoorzitter van Pels Rijcken, is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Economenpanel De shutdown in de VS duurt maar en duurt maar. Welke langdurige economische gevolgen heeft dit voor het land? En: onze arbeidsproductiviteit gaat de komende jaren eindelijk weer omhoog. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het economenpanel met: Bert Colijn, Hoofdeconoom van ING Nederland en Marijn Jongsma, redacteur macro-economie bij Het Financieele Dagblad. Luister l Economenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If anyone would know what it takes to be a modern-day “Renaissance Man”, it would be Doug Casey, who was described by his co-author as a mix of James Bond, Indiana Jones, and Socrates. His new book with Matt & Maxim Smith, “The Preparation”, is a workbook for families who know there is a better way to invest the most important years of a person's life than college. The four years are split into 16 cycles, where you will build a variety of skills, all while traveling the world to experience the culture and grow an international contact list. You will learn to fly a plane in Alaska, study to become a chef in Europe, sail around the tip of South America, learn to fight in Thailand, and get licensed to operate heavy machinery in the USA, all while becoming an EMT, cowboy, welder, hacker, and farmer. It is the ultimate education to make someone bulletproof to whatever the system throws our way. — Guest Links: The Preparation: https://amzn.to/477bSIc International Man: https://internationalman.com/  — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

** Want to take a deeper dive into this podcast? Join us on Tuesday evenings for Macro ‘n Chill, where we listen to the most recent episode together. Ask questions, share your insights, or just hang with us. 8pm ET/5pm PT. Find the registration link at realprogressives.org. And while you're there, sign up for book club. It's not too late – there are still two more sessions in our current series. ** Trump's “$20B for Argentina” wasn't aid – it was a heist. Economist Daniel Kostzer joins Steve to explain. Basically it's just same ole same ole. Milei's government crashed the value of Argentina's currency and jacked up interest rates, drawing in big investors looking for fast profits. Then, under pressure from the IMF and the US, Argentina opened up its financial system, letting those hedge funds cash out in US dollars and leave the country, taking the money and leaving ordinary Argentines to deal with inflation, frozen pensions, and gutted public services. The media story about soybeans and China? Simply a cover for another bailout of the rich. Daniel describes Argentina's inflation as a symptom of class struggle. He connects the dots between today's crisis and a long history of U.S. financial “help” that only props up Wall Street. The conversation exposes how the global elites use debt, currency crises, and friendly politicians to extract wealth while selling it as economic stability. The episode is a deep dive into modern imperialism, media manipulation, and class politics. It's also a reminder, as Gramsci said, to keep the pessimism of the intellect but the optimism of the will. Daniel Kostzer is Chief Economist at ITUC-CSI (International Trade Union Confederation-Confederacion Sindical Internacional). Much of his research is in labor economics, poverty reduction, and income distribution. Follow him: @dkostzer on X; https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-kostzer-884318165/

CONFIRA A EMPIRICUS BLACK: https://emprc.us/wVPXeLNo episódio #114 do Empiricus PodCa$t, os analistas da Empiricus, Matheus Spiess e Caio Araujo recebem Marcel Zambello, analista do BTG Pactual, para discutir o cenário global e o impacto da inteligência artificial nos resultados de empresas como Palantir, AMD e Tesla.Além disso, abordaram sobre o prefeito socialista eleito em Nova York, Zohran Mamdani, e como suas propostas de congelamento de aluguéis podem afetar o mercado imobiliário — tanto nos EUA quanto em cidades brasileiras como São Paulo.A conversa traz uma análise profunda sobre o impacto da IA nos resultados das empresas, o risco de excesso de valuation, e o debate sobre o retorno sobre o capital investido (ROIC). Até quando o mercado vai aceitar investimentos bilionários em inteligência artificial sem resultados concretos? O episódio explica por que a bolha tech de hoje é diferente (ou não) da bolha das pontocom dos anos 2000 — e o que investidores podem aprender com isso para tomar melhores decisões de investimento em ações de tecnologia.No quadro “Compra ou Vende?”, os analistas discutem os resultados de Qualcomm e Multiplan, além do novo pacote de remuneração bilionário de Elon Musk na Tesla. Entenda o que está por trás das decisões dessas companhias, o que os balanços revelam e se vale a pena comprar, vender ou manter essas ações neste momento do mercado.Apresentado por:Matheus Spiess (Analista de Macro e Política)Caio Araujo (Analista de Fundos Imobiliários)Convidado: Marcel Zambello, analista de ações internacionais do BTG Pactual#EmpiricusPodcast #BolhaTech #MercadoFinanceiro #Investimentos #Criptomoedas

The Pilgrim Society was founded in 1902 as a joint venture between the British and American Deep State factions, with the American franchise known by such names as “The Eastern Establishment”, the “Anglo-American Establishment”, and “The Money Trust”. With the Rockefeller clan deeply involved with the Pilgrim Society one can speculate as to how influential they were in the push for world government, but what is undeniable is their ability to infiltrate the American government at the highest levels in order to expand its control over financial, commercial, and political sectors of the world, in general, and the United States in particular. Don't let the silly name fool you, this group of Pilgrims is very dangerous and extremely well-connected in the business, banking, and political realms. Its covert control of the American media industry makes the Pilgrim Society one of the most treacherous organizations that you have never heard of.  — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss potential next steps for the FOMC and the risks to their views from the U.S. government shutdown. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: The October FOMC meeting delivered a quarter percent rate cut as widely expected – but things are more complicated, and policy is not on a preset path from here.It's Friday, November 7th at 10am in New York.So, Mike, the Fed did cut by 25 basis points in October, but it was not a unanimous decision. And the Federal Open Market Committee decided to end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1st – earlier than we expected. How did things unfold and does this change your outlook in any way?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me. Not so much the statement or the decision, but there were dissents. There was a dissent in favor of a 50-basis point cut. There was a dissent in favor of no cut. And that foreshadowed the press conference – where really the conversation was about, I think, a divided committee; and a committee that didn't have a lot of consensus on what would come next.The balance sheet discussion, which we can get into, it came a little sooner than we thought, but it was largely in line with our view. And I'm not sure it's a macro critical decision right now. But I do think it was a surprise to markets and it was certainly a surprise to me – how much Powell's tone shifted between September and October, in terms of what the market could expect from the Fed going forward.So, what he said in essence, the key points, you know. The policy's not on a preset path from here. Or [a] cut in December is maybe not decidedly part of the baseline; or certainly is not a foregone conclusion. And I think what that reflects is a couple of things.One is that they're recalibrating policy based on a risk management view. So, you can cut almost independent of the data, at least in the beginning. And so now I think Powell's saying, ‘Well, at least from here, future cuts are probably more data dependent than those initial cuts.' But second, and I think most importantly is the division that appeared within the Fed. I think there's one group that's hawkish, one group that's dovish, and I think it reflects the division and the tension that we have in the economic data.So, I think the hawkish crowd is looking at strong activity data, strong AI spending, an upper income consumer that seems to be doing just fine. And they're saying, ‘Why are we cutting? Financial conditions for the business community is pretty easy. Maybe the neutral rate of interest is higher. We're probably less restrictive than you think.' And then I think the other side of the committee, which I believe still that Chair Powell is in, is looking at a market slowdown in hiring a weak labor market. What that means for growth in real income for those households that depend on labor market income to consume; there's probably some front running of autos that artificially boosted growth in the third quarter.So, I think that the dissents, or I should say the division within the FOMC, I think reflects the tension in the underlying data. So, to know which way monetary policy evolves, Matt, it's essentially trying to decide: does the labor market rebound towards the activity data or does the activity data decelerate at least temporarily to the labor market?Matthew Hornbach: Mike, you talked a lot about data just now, and we're not exactly getting a lot of government data at the moment. How are you thinking about the path for the data in terms of its availability between now and the December FOMC meeting? And how do you think that may affect the Fed's willingness to move forward with another rate cut in the cycle?Michael Gapen: Right. So that's key and critical to understanding, right? We're operating under the assumption, of course the federal government shutdowns going to end at some point. We're going to get all this back data released and we can assess where the economy is or has been. I think the way markets should think about this is if the government shutdown has ended in the next few weeks, say before Thanksgiving – then I think we, markets, the Fed will have the bulk of the data in front of them and available to assess the economy at the December FOMC meeting.They may not have it all, but they should get at least some of that data released. We can assess it. If the economy has moderated and weakened a bit, the labor market has continued to cool, the Fed can cut. If it shows maybe the labor market rebounding downside risk to employment being diminished, maybe the Fed doesn't cut.So that's a world and it is our expectation the shutdown should end in the next few weeks. We're already at the longest shutdown on record, so we will get some data in hand to make the decision for December. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, Matt, and maybe we go beyond Thanksgiving, and the shutdown extends into December.My suspicion though, is if the government is still shut down in December, I can't imagine the economy's getting better. So, I think the Fed could lean in the direction of taking one more step.Matthew Hornbach: This is going to be very critical for how the markets think about the outlook in 2026 and price the outlook for 2026. The last FOMC meeting of the year has that type of importance for markets – pricing, the path of Fed policy, and the path of the economy into 2026. Because if we end up receiving a rate cut from the Fed, the dialogue in the investment community will be focused on when might the next cut arrive. Versus if we don't get that rate cut in December, the dialogue will focus on, maybe we will never see another rate cut in the cycle. And what if we see a rate hike as we make our way through the second half of 2026? So that can have a dramatic impact on the U.S. Treasury market and how investors think about the outlook for policy and the economy.Michael Gapen: So, I think that's right. And as you know, our baseline outlook is at least through the first quarter, if not into the second quarter. The private sector will still be attempting to pass through tariffs into prices. And I think in the meantime, demand for labor and the hiring rate will remain low.And so, we look for additional labor market slack to build. Not a lot, but the unemployment rate moving to more like 4.6, maybe 4.7 – and that underpins our expectation the Fed will be reducing rates in in 2026. But I think as you note, and as I mentioned earlier, there is this tension in the data and it's not inconceivable that the labor market accelerates. And you get, kind of, an animal spirits driven 2026; where a combination of momentum in the data, AI-related business spending, wealth effects for upper income consumers and maybe a larger fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, lead the economy to outperform.And to your point, if that is happening, it's not farfetched to think, well, if the Fed put in risk management insurance cuts, perhaps they need to take those out. And that could build in a way where that expectation, let's say towards the second half or the fourth quarter maybe of 2026, maybe it takes into 2027. But I agree with you that if the Fed can't cut in December because the economy's doing well and the data show that, and we learn more of that in 2026, you're right.So, it would… And may maybe to put it more simply, the more the Fed cuts, the more you need to open both sides of the rate path distribution, right? The deeper they cut, the greater the probability over time, they're going to have to raise those rates. And so, if the Fed is forced to stop in December, yeah, you can make that argument.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, a lot of the factors that you mentioned are factors that are coming up in investor conversations increasingly. The way I've been framing it in my discussions is that investors want to see the glass as half full today, versus in the middle of this year the glass was looking half empty. And of course, as we head into the holiday season, the glass will be filled with something perhaps a bit tastier than water. And so…Michael Gapen: Fill my glass please.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. So, I do think that we could be setting up for a bright 2026 ahead. And so, with that, Mike, look forward to seeing you again in December – with a glass of eggnog perhaps. And a decision in hand for the meeting that the Fed holds then. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

This episode is a little bit different. Rather than a lesson on a fat loss strategy, I am sharing a hack to help you better succeed with the strategies. We get stuck with problems that feel frustrating - not knowing all of the answers and solutions - which takes the fun out of going for a fat loss goal. Stick around. I've got ideas for using AI - artificial intelligence - like Google or ChatGPT as a ready problem solver! I'll give specific ways I've used these free tools to solve my food problems! Join my next fabulous-over-fifty FASTer Way to Fat Loss® class here: https://www.fasterwaycoach.com/AMYBRYAN 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every. They'll discuss the geopolitical situation and talk about what it means for markets. https://bit.ly/49AFRuQ    

Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a case challenging the current administration's tariff policy. Our Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Research explains the potential magnitude of the case's outcome for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we discuss the challenge against tariffs at the Supreme Court and how it might affect markets.It's Thursday, Nov 6th at 11am in New York.This week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments about the legality of most of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Investors are paying close attention because if the Supreme rules against the administration, it could undo much of the four-five times tariff increase that's taken place in the U.S. this year. That would seem to set up this hearing, and a subsequent ruling which could come as early as this month, as a clear market catalyst. But, like many policy issues affecting the economic and markets outlook, the reality is more complicated. Here's what you need to know.First, there's ample debate among experts about how the court will rule. That may seem surprising given the court's makeup. Three of the nine judges were appointed by President Trump, and six of the nine by Republican Presidents. But it's not clear they'll agree that the President used his executive power in a way consistent with the law that granted the executive branch this particular power. That law is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. And, without getting into too much detail, the law appears to have been designed to deal with economic crises and foreign adversaries, which the court might argue is not evident when considering tariffs levied against traditional allies.But, the next important point is that a ruling against the Trump administration might not actually change much around U.S. tariff levels. How is that possible? It's because the administration has other executive tariff powers it can deploy if needed, and ones that are arguably more durable. For example, Section 301 gives a President wide latitude to designate a trading partner as undertaking unfair trade practices. So this authority could be swapped in for IEEPA. That could take time, as Section 301 requires a study to be submitted, but there are other temporary authorities that could bridge the gap. So the U.S. can likely ensure continuity of current tariff levels if it wants – keeping tariffs more of a constant than a variable in our outlook.Of course, we have to consider ways we could be wrong. For example, the administration could use a ruling against it to re-focus instead on product specific tariffs through Section 232. That likely would result in U.S. effective tariff rates drifting a bit lower, alleviating some of the pressure our economists see on the consumer and corporate importers, adding more support to risk assets. But that scenario might come with some volatility along the way if the administration feels the need to float larger product specific tariff levels before settling on more palatable levels – similar to what happened in April.So bottom line, there's more tariff policy noise to navigate this year. It could bring some market volatility, and maybe even a bit of upside, but the most likely outcome is that we circle back to the approximate levels we are today. Setting up for 2026, that means other debates – like how companies respond to tariffs and capital spending incentives – are probably more important to the outlook than the level of tariffs themselves. We're digging in on all that and will keep you in the loop.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

There is a network of left-wing agitators who can be summoned, seemingly on demand, to be angry enough to protest just about anything. These coordinated uprisings are anything but organic, but the average person never asks where the money is coming from. If they did, it might strike them as odd that the people financing the protests against billionaires were other billionaires.   The dark money flowing through Arabella Advisors comes from some of the most dangerous foundations in the world, all with ties to eugenics. Charity groups connected to Gates, Soros, and Zuckerberg spent almost $295 million on the nationwide “No Kings: 2 Electric Boogaloo”  walk-a-thon for elderly, misinformed Boomers. Their subscription to the “revolution” will be billed monthly via Apple Pay. — Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels: Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  YouTube: https://youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q?si=DvKo2lcQhzo8Vuqu  — MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  —

Concluding a two-part roundtable discussion, our global heads of Research, Thematic Research and Firmwide AI focus on the human impacts of AI adoption in the workplace.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts in The Market, and to part two of our conversation on AI adoption. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research. Once again, I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI. Today, let's focus on the human level. What this paradigm shift means for individual workers. It's Wednesday, November 5th at 10am in New York. Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, there's a lot of simultaneous fear and excitement around widespread AI adoption. There's obviously concern that AI could lead to massive job losses. But you seem optimistic about this paradigm shift. Why is that? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, as I mentioned in part one, this is the most popular discussion topic with my children. And I would say younger folks are quite concerned about this. There's a lot of angst among young folks thinking about what is that job market really going to look like for them. And admittedly, AI could be quite disruptive. So, we don't want to sugarcoat that. There's clearly going to be impacts across many jobs. Our work showed that around 90 percent of jobs will be impacted in some way. Oh, in the long term, I would guess nearly every job will be impacted in some way. The reason we are more optimistic is that what we see is a range of what we would think of as augmentation, where AI can essentially help you do something much better. It can help you expand your capabilities. And it will result in entirely new jobs. Now with any new technology, it's always hard to predict exactly what those new jobs are. But examples that I see in my world of energy would be smart grid analysis, predictive maintenance, managing systems in a much more efficient way. Systems that are so complicated that they're really beyond the capability of humans to manage very effectively. So, I'm quite excited there. I'm extremely excited in the life sciences where we could see entire new approaches to curing some of the worst diseases plaguing humankind. So, I am really very excited in terms of those new areas of job creation. In terms of job losses, one interesting analysis that a lot of investors are really focused on that we included in our Future of Work report was the ratio – within a job – of augmentation to automation. The lower the ratio, the higher the risk of job loss in the sense that that shows a sign that more of what AI is going to do, is going to replace that type of human work. Examples of that would be in professional services. As I mentioned, you know, one of my former professions, law would be an example of an area where you could see this. But essentially, tasks that don't require a lot of proprietary data, require less creativity. Those are the types of tasks that are more likely to be automated. Kathryn Huberty: One theme I hear both in Silicon Valley and in our industry is the value of domain expertise goes up. So, the lawyer that's very good in the courtroom or handling a really complicated situation because they have decades of experience, the value of that labor and talent goes up. And so, when my friends ask me what their kids should pursue in school and as a career, I tell them it's less about what job they pursue. Pick a passion and become a domain expert really quickly. Stephen Byrd: I think that's excellent advice. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, how do you see AI changing the skills we'll need at Morgan Stanley and the way that people should think about their careers? Jeff McMillan: I think you have to break this down into three pieces – and Stephen sort of alluded to it. One, you have to look at the jobs that are likely to disappear. Two, you have to look at the jobs that are going to change. And then finally, you have to look at the new jobs that are going to actually emerge from this phenomena. You should be thinking right now about how you are going to prepare yourself with the right skills around learning how to prompt and learning how to move into those functions that are not going to be eliminated. In terms of jobs that are changing, they're going to require a far, far greater sense of collaboration, creativity. And again, prompting; prompt engineering is sort of the center of that. And I would highly encourage every single person who's listening to this to become the single best prompt engineer in their group, in their friend[s group], in their organization. And then in terms of the jobs that are being created, I'm actually pretty optimistic here. As we build agents, there's actually a bull case that we're going to create so much complexity in our environment that we're going to need more people to help manage that. But the skills are not going to be repetitive linear skills. They're going to require real time decision-making, leadership skills, collaboration skills. But again, I would go back to every single person: learn how to talk to the machine, learn how to be creative, and practice every day your engagement with this technology. Kathryn Huberty: So then how are companies balancing the re-skilling with the inevitable culture shifts that come with any new paradigm? Jeff McMillan: So, first of all, I think if you think about this as a tool, you've already lost the plot. I think that number one, you have to remind yourself what your strategy is; whatever that strategy is, this is an enabler of your strategy. The second point I'd make is that you have to go from both – the top down, in terms of leadership messaging that this change is here, it's important and it needs to be embraced. And then it's a bottoms-up because you have to empower people with the right tools and the technology to transform their own work. Because if you're trying to tell people that this is the path that they have to follow. You don't get the buy-in that you need. You really want to empower people to leverage these tools. And what excites me most is when people walk into my office and say, ‘Hey Jeff, let me show you what I built today.' And it could be some 22-year-old who; it's their first month on the job. And what's exciting about this technology is you do not need a technology background. You need to be smart; you need to be creative. And if you've got those skills, you can build things that are really innovative. And I think that's what's exciting. So, if you can combine the top down that this is important and the bottoms up with giving people the skills and the technology and the motivation – that's the secret sauce. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, what's your advice for the next generation college students, recent college graduates as they're thinking about navigating the early parts of their career in this environment? Jeff McMillan: Well, Katy, I first of all, I'd agree with what you say. You know, everyone's like, ‘What should I study?' And the answer is – I don't actually know the answer to that question. But I would study what you care about. I would do something that you're passionate about. And the second point, and I hate to be a broken record on this. But I would be the single best user of GenerativeAI at your college. Volunteer with some nonprofit, build a use case with your friends. When you walk into your first job, impress in your interview that you are able to use this technology in really effective ways – because that will make a difference, in your first job. Kathryn Huberty: And I'm curious, are there areas where you think humans will always beat AI, whether it's in financial services or other industries? Jeff McMillan: I like to think that we are human and that gives us the ability to build trust and emotional relationships. And I think not only are we going to be better at that than machines are. But I think that's something that we as humans will always want. I think that there may be some individuals in the society that may feel differently. But I think as a general rule, the human-to-human relationship is something that's really important. And I like to think that it will be a differentiator for a long time to come. So, Katy, from where you sit as the Head of Global Research, how has GenAI changed the way research is being done? Kathryn Huberty: With the help of your team, Jeff, we have now embedded AI through the life cycle of investigating a hypothesis, doing the analysis, writing the research in a concise, effective way. Pushing that through our publishing process, developing digital content in our analysts' voice, in the local language of the client. And now we're working on a client engagement tool that helps direct our research team's time. And so, the impact here is it reduces the time to market to get a alpha generating idea to our clients and, you know, and it's freeing up time for our teams. Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to build on that. Productivity is a big theme. And away from the research itself, from a management perspective, how are you and your team using AI? And what do you see as the benefits? And how are you spending the extra time that's freed up by AI? Kathryn Huberty: I like to say that the research AI strategy is less about the tools. I mean, those are critical and foundational. But it's more about how we're evolving workflow and how our teams are spending time. And so, the savings are being reinvested in actually your area – thematic research – which takes a lot more coordination, collaboration. A global cross-asset view, which just takes more time to develop, and test a hypothesis, and debate internally, and get those reports to market. But it's critical for our core strategy, which is to help our clients generate alpha. When you look at equity markets over the past 30 years, a very small number of stocks drive all of the alpha. And they tend to link to themes. And so, we're reinvesting time in identifying those themes earlier than the market to allow our clients to capture that alpha. And then the other piece is when we look at our analyst teams, they spend about a quarter of their time with clients because they have to meet with experts in the industry. They need to do the analysis, they have to build the financial forecast, manage their teams. You know, we have internal activities, build culture. And with the ability to leverage these tools to speed up some of those tasks, we think we can double the amount of time that our analysts are spending with clients. And if we're putting thought-provoking, you know, often thematic global collaborative content into the market, our clients want to spend more time with us. And so, that's the ultimate impact. On a personal level, and I think both of you can relate. I think a lot of the freed-up time right now is just following the fast pace of change in AI and keeping up with the latest technology, the latest vendors. But long term, my hope is that this frees up time for more human activities on a personal level. Learning the arts, staying active. So, this could be potentially very beneficial to society if we reinvest that time in both productive activities that have impact in business. But also productive, rewarding activities outside of the office.As we wrap up, it's clear that the influence of AI is expanding rapidly, not just in digital- and knowledge-based sectors, but increasingly in tangible real-world applications. As these innovations unfold, the way we interact with both technology and our environments will continue to evolve – both on the job and elsewhere in our lives. Jeff, Stephen, thank you both for sharing your insights. And to our listeners, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend and colleague today.

In the first of a two-part roundtable discussion, our Global Head of Research joins our Global Head of Thematic Research and Head of Firmwide AI to discuss how the economic and labor impacts of AI adoption.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research, and I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.Today and tomorrow, we have a special two-part episode on the number one question everyone is asking us: What does the future of work look like as we scale AI?It's Tuesday, November 4th at 10am in New York.I wanted to talk to you both because Stephen, your groundbreaking work provides a foundation for thinking through labor and economic impacts of implementing AI across industries. And Jeff, you're leading Morgan Stanley's efforts to implement AI across our more than 80,000 employee firm, requiring critical change management to unlock the full value of this technology.Let's start big picture and look at this from the industry level. And then tomorrow we'll dig into how AI is changing the nature of work for individuals.Stephen, one of the big questions in the news – and from investors – is the size of AI adoption opportunity in terms of earnings potential for S&P 500 companies and the economy as a whole. What's the headline takeaway from your analysis?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is the most popular topic with my children when we talk about the work that I do. And the impacts are so broad. So, let's start with the headline numbers. We did a deep dive into the S&P 500 in terms of AI adoption benefits. The net benefits based on where the technology is now, would be about little over $900 billion. And that can translate to well over 20 percent increased earnings power that could generate over $13 trillion of market cap upon adoption. And importantly, that's where the technology is now.So, what's so interesting to me is the technology is evolving very, very quickly. We've been writing a lot about the nonlinear rate of improvement of AI. And what's especially exciting right now is a number of the big American labs, the well-known companies developing these LLMs, are now gathering about 10 times the computational power to train their next model. If scaling laws hold that would result in models that are about twice as capable as they are today. So, I think 2026 is going to be a big year in terms of thinking about where we're headed in terms of adoption. So, it's frankly challenging to basically take a snapshot because the picture is moving so quickly.Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, you referenced just the fast pace of change and the daily news flow. What's the view of the timeline here? Are we measuring progress at the industry level in months, in years?Stephen Byrd: It's definitely in years. It's fast and slow. Slow in the sense that, you know, it's taken some companies a little while now and some over a year to really prepare. But now what we're seeing in our CIO survey is many companies are now moving into the first, I'd say, full fledged adoption of AI, when you can start to really see this in numbers.So, it sort of starts with a trickle, but then in 2026, it really turns into something much, much bigger. And then I go back to this point about non-linear improvement. So, what looks like, areas where AI cannot perform a task six months from now will look very different. And I think – I'm a former lawyer myself. In the field of law, for example, this has changed so quickly as to what AI can actually do. So, what I expect is it starts slow and then suddenly we look at a wide variety of tasks and AI is fairly suddenly able to do a lot more than we expect.Kathryn Huberty: Which industries are likely to be most impacted by the shift? And when you broke down the analysis to the industry and job level, what were some of the surprises?Stephen Byrd: I thought what we would see would be fairly high-tech oriented sectors – and including our own – would be top of the list. What I found was very different. So, think instead of sectors where there's fairly low profit per employee, often low margin businesses, very labor-intensive businesses. A number of areas in healthcare staples came to the top. A few real estate management businesses. So, very different than I expected.The very high-tech sectors actually had some of the lowest numbers, simply because those companies in high-tech tend to have extremely high profit per employee. So, the impact is a lot less. So that was surprising learning. A lot of clients have been digging into that.Kathryn Huberty: I could see why that would've surprised you. But let's focus on banking for a moment since we have the expert here. Jeff, what are some of the most exciting AI use cases in banking right now?Jeff McMillan: You know, I would start with software development, which was probably the first Gen AI use case out of the gate. And not only was it first, but it continues to be the most rapidly advancing. And that's probably; mostly a function of the software, you know, development community. I mean, these are developers that are constantly fiddling and making the technology better.But productivity continues to advance at a linear pace. You know, we have over 20,000 folks here at Morgan Stanley. That's 25 percent of our population. And, you know, the impact both in terms of the size of that population and the efficiencies are really, really significant.So, I would start there. And then, you know, once you start moving past that, it may not seem, you know, sexy. It's really powerful around things like document processing. Financial services firms move massive amounts of paper. We take paper in, whether it be an account opening, whether it be a contract. Somebody reads that information, they reason about it, and then they type that information into a system. AI is really purpose built for that.And then finally, just document generation. I mean, the number of presentations, portfolio reviews, you know, even in your world, Katy, research reports that we create. Once again, AI is really just – it's right down the middle in terms of its ability to generate just content and help people reduce the time and effort to do that.Kathryn Huberty: There's a lot of excitement around AI, but as Stephen mentioned, it's not a linear path. What are the biggest challenges, Jeff, to AI adoption for a big global enterprise like Morgan Stanley? What keeps you up at night?Jeff McMillan: I've often made the analogy that we own a Ferrari and we're driving around circles in a parking lot. And what I mean by that is that the technology has so far advanced beyond our own capacity to leverage it. And the biggest issue is – it's our own capacity and awareness and education.So, what keeps me up at night? it's the firm's understanding. It's each person's and each leader's ability to understand what this technology can do. Candidly, it's the basics of prompting. We spend a lot of time here at the firm just teaching people how to prompt, understanding how to speak to the machine because until you know how to do that, you don't really understand the art of the possible. I tell people, if you have $100 to spend, you should start spending [$]90, on educating your employee base. Because until you do that, you cannot effectively get the best out of the technology.Kathryn Huberty: And as we look out to 2026, what AI trends are you watching closely and how are we preparing the firm to take advantage of that?Jeff McMillan: You and I were just out in Silicon Valley a couple of weeks ago, and seemingly overnight, every firm has become an agentic one. While much of that is aspirational, I think it's actually going to be, in the long term, a true narrative, right? And I think that step where we are right now is really about experimentation, right? I think we have to learn which tools work, what new governance processes we need to put in place, where the lines are drawn. I think we're still in the early stage, but we're leaning in really hard.We've got about 20 use cases that we're experimenting with right now. As things settle down and the vendor landscape really starts to pan out, we'll be down position to fully take advantage of that.Kathryn Huberty: A key element of the agentic solutions is linking to the data, the tools, the application that we use every day in our workflow. And that ecosystem is developing, and it feels that we're now on the cusp of those agentic workflow applications taking hold.Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to jump in here and ask you a question too. With your own background as an IT hardware analyst, how does the AI era compare to past tech or computing cycles? And what sort of lessons from those cycles shape your view of the opportunities and challenges ahead?Kathryn Huberty: The other big question in the market right now is whether an AI bubble is forming. You hear that in the press. It's one of the questions all three of us are hearing regularly from clients. And implicit in that question is a view that this doesn't look like past cycles, past trends. And I just don't believe that to be the case.We actually see the development of AI following a very similar path. If you go back to mainframe and then minicomputer, the PC, internet, mobile, cloud, and now AI. Each compute cycle is roughly 10 times larger in terms of the amount of installed compute.The reality is we've gone from millions to billions to trillions, and so it feels very different. But the reality is we have a trillion dollars of installed CPU compute, and that means we likely need $10 trillion of installed GPU compute. And so, we are following the same pattern. Yes, the numbers are bigger because we keep 10x-ing, but the pattern is the same. And so again, that tells us we're in the early innings. You know, we're still at the point of the semiconductor technology shipping out into infrastructure. The applications will come.The other pattern from past cycles is that exponential growth is really difficult for humans to model. So, I think back to the early days when Morgan Stanley's technology team was really bullish, laying the groundwork for the PC era, the internet era, the mobile era. When we go back and look at our forecasts, we always underestimated the potential. And so that would suggest that what we've seen with the upward earnings revisions for the AI enablers and soon the AI adopters is likely to continue.And so, I see many patterns, you know, that are thread across computing cycles, and I would just encourage investors to realize that AI so far is following similar patterns.Jeff McMillan: Katy, you make the point that much of the playbook is the same. But is there anything fundamentally different about the AI cycle that investors should be thinking about?Kathryn Huberty: The breadth of impact to industries and corporates, which speaks to Stephen's work. We have now four times over mapped the 3,700 companies globally that Morgan Stanley research covers to understand their role in this theme.Are they enabling AI? Are they adopting? Are they disrupted by it? How important is it to the thesis? Do they have pricing power? It's very valuable data to go and capture the alpha. But I was looking at that dataset recently and a third of those nearly 4,000 companies we cover, our analysts are saying that AI has an impact on the investment thesis. A third. And yet we're still in the early innings. And so, what may be different, and make the impact much bigger and broader is just the sheer number of corporations that will be impacted by the theme.Let's pause here and pick up tomorrow with more on workforce transformation and the impact on individual workers.Thank you to our listeners. Please join us tomorrow for part two of our conversation. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.