Podcasts about Macro

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Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 104:08

Na bijna 30 jaar draagt topman Henk de Vries van superjachtenbouwer Feadship het stokje over aan zijn achterneef. Een sector waar veel kritiek op is door dubieuze klanten, vervuilende jachten en door de enorme luxe die eromheen hangt. Toch probeert het bedrijf met en man macht hun superjachten te verduurzamen. Henk de Vries, topman van Feadship is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Economen panel De Verenigde Staten en China hebben elkaar voor het eerst sinds het uitbreken van de handelsoorlog fysiek ontmoet. En: de Eruropese Rekenkamer is zeer kritisch over het coronaherstelfonds. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het economenpanel met: -Marieke Blom, hoofdeconoom van ING -Arnoud Boot, econoom en hoogleraar aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam Luister l Economenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Vistazo a la macro y las divisas

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 7:20

Repasamos la situación entre China y Estados Unidos y las reacciones al euro, el dólar y el petróleo, de la mano de Javier Ferrer, responsable de negocio de Tradition España.

The Eye of a Market Storm

head strategy global market investing economics markets fed alternatives federal reserve macro morgan stanley equities fixed income

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 3:46

The initial shock of the U.S. administration's tariff announcements is over, but Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, suggests the current calm could still give way to headwinds for the markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're going to discuss whether the worst is over for markets – or whether it's just the eye of the storm.It's Friday, May 9th at 2pm in London.After extreme recent volatility, markets have bounced back, generally unwinding their losses since April 2nd. So was that it? The shock of tariff announcements and positioning adjustments may have now passed through, but the impact on the real economy is still to come. In meteorological terms, we think this may be just the eye of the storm.There are several specific bouts of potentially bad weather that we're looking at, driven by tariffs that may be about to pass through.First is the Federal Reserve. Our economists still see no cuts from the Fed this year as tariffs keep inflation elevated on our forecast. The markets in contrast are expecting more action. A scenario where credit markets face both weaker growth and a lack of central bank support remains one of our top concerns.Second is the data. So far in 2025, measures of consumer and company expectations have generally been weak, while readings of activity have tended to be stronger. Now, we think there's a good historical case that it's the expectations that tend to leave and are thus concerned that actual activity could start to soften – as it starts to be measured in a post tariff period.To this end, we're keenly watching measures like shipping and trucking activity, which could give us a better picture of the real impact. Again, a core driver of our concern, despite the economic data holding up so far, is that the impact of tariffs usually takes more time. As our economists note, tariffs historically have pushed up prices after a couple of months and pushed down growth after a couple of quarters. In short, the full storm of that impact may be yet to pass through.That thinking also lies behind our inflation views. Those more optimistic on inflation, and thus expecting more interest rate cuts from the Fed, note that the latest core inflation readings were generally fine. But in contrast, our economists remain more concerned that tariff price impacts simply haven't yet arrived in the official data, noting little change in the core inflation readings for things like goods that in theory should see the largest tariff impact. This, in our view, suggests that the impact on the underlying numbers that the Fed is looking at is still to come.The initial surprise of the U.S. tariff announcements is behind us. Things feel calmer. And the recent economic data has been relatively resilient. One scenario is this simply speaks to how resilient the U.S. economy is. But another explanation is that there's a gap between the surprise of those tariffs and their ultimate economic impact. And our concern remains that those impacts are real, driving forecast at Morgan Stanley for weaker growth, higher inflation, and later interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than the market consensus.With credit spreads below average, we'd recommend patience. Those forecasts at these spreads could still drive turbulence.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts in the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen; and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Uitspraken Hoekstra tijdens coronacrisis ‘dieptepunt van Nederlandse diplomatie'

Kees de Kort | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 4:57

De Europese Rekenkamer kraakte eerder deze week de opzet en ook de uitvoering van het coronaherstelfonds. Macro-econoom Arnoud Boot sluit zich daar bij aan, en kijkt vooral naar uitspraken van toenmalig minister van Financiën en huidig Eurocommissaris Wopke Hoekstra (CDA). 'Dat was wat mij betreft het dieptepunt van de Nederlandse diplomatie van de afgelopen decennia.’ Zeg nog even, wat is het coronaherstelfonds. Dit gaat over dat oorspronkelijke pakket van ruim 720 miljard euro dat ruim een half jaar na het begin van de coronapandemie in werking is getreden om Europa een groene en digitale toekomst te geven. Dat was heel vrijblijvend opgezet, we wisten dat dit er aan zou komen. ‘We mogen het woord verspillen niet In de In de mond nemen, dat doet de Europese Rekenkamer ook niet, maar ze zijn onvoorstelbaar ontevreden.' Waar zit de kritiek precies in? De Rekenkamer heeft nog geprobeerd het een beetje fatsoenlijk op te schrijven. Deze organisatie bestaat uit 27 leden, één per land. Voor Nederland is dat voormalig minister Stef Blok. Je kunt je voorstellen dat wat al die landen uiteindelijk opschrijven, toch redelijk diplomatiek zou klinken. De eerste conclusie klinkt bijna cynisch: het fonds was een nieuwe benadering die losstond van de werkelijke kosten — een nieuwe approach, staat er letterlijk. Maar dit is een benadering die niets meer te maken heeft met de kosten die daadwerkelijk nodig zijn. Dat is nogal vernietigend. Daarnaast zegt de Rekenkamer, in de understatement van de dag, dat er onvoldoende focus was op wat het fonds uiteindelijk zou opleveren. Er was een hele slechte controle op de besteding van de middelen. De Europese Rekenkamer stelt dan ook dat er bij een volgende keer beter rekening moet worden gehouden met de kosten, en dat er beter gemeten en gecontroleerd moet worden. Precies het tegenovergestelde van wat er nu is gebeurd. Dus het niet zo gek dat die zuinige Nederlanders zo argwanend zijn over meer geld naar Brussel? Dat snap ik wel, ja. Het is belangrijk om te zien waar het vandaan komt. Het komt niet voort uit een behoefte om geld te verspillen, maar uit de wens van een groot aantal lidstaten en van het hele apparaat in Brussel om eigen middelen te hebben en die ook zelf te kunnen aanwenden. Dat staat op gespannen voet met performance. Wat eruit komt, wordt sterk gemeten, en er is strikte controle op uitgaven — en dat wordt als vervelend ervaren. Er is dus een tendens in Europa, zowel bij veel lidstaten als bij het Brusselse apparaat, om te bewegen richting een soort transferunie, waarbij Brussel over beperkte middelen beschikt, maar wel de bevoegdheid krijgt om die tussen lidstaten te alloceren. Daar komt het uit voort. Het komt voort uit een fundamenteel verschil van inzicht over hoe je de Europese Unie effectief maakt én het draagvlak behoudt. Nederland staat aan de kant van: wij hebben de brug naar de Verenigde Staten van Europa niet gemaakt. Er is dus geen draagvlak voor een groot federaal budget — en dan krijg je de huidige situatie. Waar heeft Wopke Hoekstra dan destijds zo gefaald in jouw ogen? Een aantal instanties in Nederland heeft zichzelf aardig in de voet geschoten. We weten namelijk dat Brussel meer geld wil, terwijl lidstaten dat geld naar eigen inzicht willen uitgeven — zonder daar verantwoording over af te leggen. Het probleem ligt bij het ministerie van Financiën. Dat heeft gefaald in de eigen diplomatie, waardoor Nederland niet meer aan tafel zit. Het draait om twee momenten. Het eerste is vlak na het begin van de coronacrisis. De doden lagen op straat in het Italiaanse Bergamo, en Italië vroeg om hulp uit het noodfonds — een relatief klein bedrag. Waarop Hoekstra zei, terwijl de doden op straat lagen: laat ze eerst hun begroting maar op orde brengen. Iedereen viel over Nederland heen, en terecht. Nederland kwam volledig buitenspel te staan. Toen het zes maanden later écht om geld ging — het coronaherstelfonds — bleek dat Hoekstra zijn kruit op het verkeerde moment had verschoten. En toen is het misgegaan. We hadden op zijn minst aan tafel moeten zitten. Daar hadden we veel invloed kunnen uitoefenen. Misschien niet genoeg, maar in elk geval: we hadden aan tafel gezeten. Het tweede moment draait om diplomatie. Grote delen van Europa hebben er belang bij om Nederland buitenspel te zetten; er worden zelfs valstrikken opgezet om Nederland uit de toon te laten vallen. Zo’n val werd een aantal jaar later gezet voor de toenmalige minister van Financiën, Sigrid Kaag, in een interview met de Financial Times. Een prachtig, goed interview — in de week na de inval van Rusland in Oekraïne. De bedoeling van de Financial Times was om één uitspraak uit te lokken: dat Nederland hecht aan begrotingsdiscipline in Europa. Precies een week na de inval, op een moment waarop medeleven en actie richting Oekraïne nodig waren, zegt Nederland opnieuw dat er begrotingsdiscipline moet zijn. En dát staat dan bovenaan het artikel in de Financial Times. Juist dan is diplomatie wat Nederland nodig heeft. We zijn onderdeel van de Europese Unie, en zonder diplomatiek gevoel zullen we buitenspel gezet worden. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Uitspraken Hoekstra tijdens coronacrisis ‘dieptepunt van Nederlandse diplomatie'

Kees de Kort | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 10:04

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Ivo van der Mark (JAJO) over de concurrentiestrijd tussen nieuwe en gerecyclede bouwmaterialen

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 119:36

De omzet van bouwbedrijf JAJO steeg in 2024 met ruim 6,5 procent naar 529 miljoen euro. Hoe kreeg JAJO dat voor elkaar in een sector die wordt gedomineerd door de stikstofcrisis en geopolitieke onrust? En JAJO zet vol in op het hergebruik van bouwmaterialen. Maar kunnen gerecyclede materialen in de bouw wel concurreren met virgin materialen? Ivo van der Mark, topman van JAJO is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ondernemerspanel Is er nog sprake van ‘discountschaamte’ in Nederland? En: steeds meer bedrijven vinden het ondernemersklimaat in Nederland ‘goed’ of zelfs ‘uitstekend’ Maar is dat optimisme terecht? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het ondernemerspanel met: -Mirjam van der linden, Ondernemer en eigenaar van I-recruiting en EASY Eventcrew, toezichthouder bij meerdere organisaties -Geert-Jan van der Snoek, Managing partner, Merx Enterprises Luister I Ondernemerspanel Pitches Elke vrijdag is het weer tijd voor jonge ondernemingen om zichzelf op de kaart te zetten. Dat doen zij via een pitch en het doorstaan van een vragenvuur. Vandaag is het de beurt aan: Kevin Bruggink van Starfeed en Amar Thomas van Dappr. Maasbert Schouten, CEO van NV MaasInvest zal de startups beoordelen en van advies voorzien. Deze jonge ondernemers zijn ook terug te luisteren als podcast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Building an NFL Roster with Animals | Macrodosing - May 8, 2025

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 169:27

On today's episode PFT is back in the studio and the guys get into everything happening in the news + all the topics that they're passionate about. Enjoy! (00:02:04) Bet Gala Recap (00:07:44) Dave Portnoy News (00:29:13) Kids and AI (00:46:16) Voicemail Update (01:22:24) The Conclave Has Started (01:24:41) Animals as NFL Players (01:40:43) Trad Wives (02:05:39) AI Down Syndrome Filter (02:07:30) Diddy Jury Selection (02:15:22) Andruw Jones Hall of Fame (02:26:21) Conclave (cont.) (02:33:22) Golden Globes Podcast Category Look for MAD DOG by MD 20/20 in your local stores and at drinkMD2020.com now! Must be 21+ to purchase. Download the Gametime app today and use code MACRO for $20 off your first purchase Go to https://pardonmycheesesteak.com to order with code PMC20 for 20% offYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

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MacroVoices #479 Anas Alhajji: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts?

Macro Voices

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 78:35

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji to the show to discuss OPEC+ production increase & market reactions, Trump's visit and oil politics, and the long-term outlook for oil and LNG & much more. https://bit.ly/43ldvBg What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? - Anas Alhajji

Why is the Taiwanese Dollar Suddenly Surging?

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Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 11:09

Investors were caught off guard last week when the Taiwanese dollar surged to a multi-year high. Our strategists Michael Zezas and James Lord look at what was behind this unexpected rally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.James Lord: And I'm James Lord Morgan Stanley's, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll focus on some extreme moves in the currency markets and give you a sense of what's driving them, and why investors should pay close attention.It's Thursday, May 8th at 10am in New York.James Lord: And 3pm in London.Michael Zezas: So, James, coming into the year, the consensus was that the U.S. dollar might strengthen quite a bit because the U.S. was going to institute tariffs amongst other things. That's actually not what's happened. So, can you explain why the dollar's been weakening and why you expect this trend to continue?James Lord: I think a big factor for the weakening in the dollar, at least in the initial part of the year before the April tariff announcements came through, was a concern that the U.S. economy was going to be slowing down this year. I mean, this was against some of the consensus expectations at the beginning of the year.In our year ahead outlook, we made this call that the dollar would be weakening because of the potential weakness in the U.S. economy, driven by slow down in immigration, limited action on fiscal policy. And whatever tariffs did come through would be kind of damaging for the U.S. economy.And this would all sort of lead to a big slowdown and a kind of end to the U.S. exceptionalism trade that people now talk about all the time. And I think since April 1st or April 2nd tariff announcements came, the tariffs were so large that it raised real concerns about the damage that was potentially going to happen to the U.S. economy.The sort of methodology in which the tariff formulas were created raised a bit of concern about the credibility of the announcements. And then we had this constant on again, off again, on again, off again tariffs. That just created a lot of uncertainty. And in the context of a 15-year bull market of the dollar where it had sucked enormous amounts of capital inflows into the U.S. economy. You know, investors just felt that maybe it was worth taking a few chips off the table and unwinding a little bit of that dollar risk. And we've seen that play out quite notably over the last month. So, I think it's been, yeah, really that those concerns about growth but also this sort of uncertainty about policy in general in the context of, you know, a big bull run for the dollar; and fairly heavy valuations and positioning. Those have been the main issues, I think.Michael Zezas: Right, so we've got here this dynamic where there are economic fundamental reasons the dollar could keep weakening. But also concerns from investors overseas, whether they're ultimately founded or not, that they just might have less demand for owning U.S. dollar denominated assets because of the U.S. trade dynamic. Now it seems to me, and correct me if I'm wrong, that there was a major market move in the past week around the Taiwanese dollar, which reflected these concerns and created an unusually large move in that currency. Can you explain that dynamic?James Lord: Yeah, so we've seen really significant moves in the Taiwan dollar. In fact, on May 2nd, the currency saw its largest one-day rally since the 1980s, and over two days gained over 6.5 percent, which for a Taiwan dollar, which is pretty low volatility currency usually, these are really big moves. So in our view, the rally in the Taiwan dollar, and it was remarkably big. We think it's been mostly driven by Taiwanese exporters selling some of their dollar assets with a little bit of foreign equity inflow helping as well. And this is linked back to the sort of trade negotiations as well.I mean, as you know, like one of the things that the U.S. administration has been focused on currency valuations. Historically, many people in the U.S. administration believe the dollar is very strong. And so there has been this sort of issue of currency valuations hanging over the trade negotiations between the U.S. and various Asian countries. And local media in Taiwan have been talking about the possibility that as part of a trade negotiation or trade deal, there could be a currency aspect to that – where the U.S. government would ask the Taiwanese authorities to try to push Taiwan dollar stronger.And you know, I think this sort of media reporting created a little bit of a -- well, not just a little, a significant shift from Taiwanese exporters where they suddenly rush to sell their dollar deposits in to get ahead of any possible effort from the Taiwanese authorities to strengthen their currency. The central bank is being very clear on this.We should have to point this out that the currency has not been part of the trade deal. And yet this hasn't prevented market participants from acting on the perceived risk of it being part of the trade talks. So, you know, Taiwanese exporters own a lot of dollars. Corporates and individuals in Taiwan hold about $275 billion worth of FX deposits and for an $800 billion or so economy, that's pretty sizable. So we think that is that dynamic, which has been the biggest factor in pushing Taiwan dollar stronger.Michael Zezas: Right, so the Taiwan dollar is this interesting case study then in how U.S. public policy choices might be creating the perception of changes in demand for the dollar changes in policy around how foreign governments are supposed to value their currency and investors might be getting ahead of that.Are there any other parts of the world where you're looking at foreign exchange globally, where you see things mispriced in a way relative to some of these expectations that investors need to talk about?James Lord: We do think that the dollar has further to go. I mean, it's on the downside. It's not necessarily linked to expectations that currency agreements will be part of any trade agreement. But, we think the Fed will need to cut rates quite a bit on the back of the slow down in the U.S. economy. Not so much this year. But Mike Gapen and Seth Carpenter, and the U.S. economics team are expecting to see the Fed cut to around 2.5 per cent or so next year. And that's absolutely not priced. And, And so I think as this slowdown – and, this is more of a sort of traditional currency driver compared to some of these other policy issues that we've been talking about. But if the Fed does indeed cut that far, I do think that that's going to put some meaningful pressure on the dollar. And on a sort of interest rate differential perspective, and when we look at what is mispriced and correctly priced, we see the Fed as being mispriced, but the ECB is being quite well priced at the moment.So as that weakening downward pressure comes through on the dollar, it should be reflected on the euro leg. And we see it heading up to 1.2. But just on the trade issue, Mike, what's your view on how those trade negotiations are going? Are we going to get lots of deals being announced soon?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so the news flow here suggests that the U.S. is engaged in multiple negotiations across the globe and are looking to establish agreements relatively quickly, which would at least give us some information about what happens next with regard to the tariffs that are scheduled to increase after that 90 day pause that was announced in earlier in April. We don't know much beyond that.I'd say our expectation is that because the U.S. has enough in common in terms of interests and how it manages its own economy and how most of its trading partners manage their own economies – that there are trade agreements, at least in concept. Perhaps memorandums of understanding that the U.S. can establish with more traditional allies, call it Japan, Europe, for example, that can ultimately put another pause on tariff escalation with those countries.We think it'll be harder with China where there are more fundamental disagreements about how the two countries should interact with each other economically. And while tariffs could come down from these very, very high levels with China, we still see them kind of settling out at still meaningful substantial headline numbers; call it the 50 to 60 per cent range. And while that might enable more trade than we're seeing right now with China because of these 145 per cent tariff levels, it'll still be substantially less than where we started the year where tariff levels were, you know, sub 20 per cent for the most part with China.So, there is a variety of different things happening. I would expect the general dynamic to be – we are going to see more agreements with more counterparties. However, those will mostly result in more pauses and ongoing negotiation, and so the uncertainty will not be completely eliminated. And so, to that point, James, I think I hear you saying that there is potentially a difference between sometimes currencies move based on general policy uncertainty and anxieties created around that.James Lord: Yeah, that's right. I think that's safer ground, I think for us as currency strategists to be anchoring our view to because it's something that we deal with day in, day out for all economies. The impact of this uncertainty variable. It could be like, I think directionally supports a weaker dollar, but sort of quantifying it, understanding like how much of that is in the price; could it get worse, could it get better? That's something that's a little bit more difficult to sort of anchor the view to. So, at the moment we feel that it's pushing in the same direction as the core view. But the core view, as you say, is based around those growth and monetary policy drivers.So, best practice here is let's keep continuing to anchor to the fundamentals in our investment view, but sort of recognize that there are substantial bands of uncertainty that are driven by U.S. policy choices and by investors' perceptions of what those policy choices could mean.Michael Zezas: So, James conversations like this are extremely helpful to our audience. We'll keep tracking this carefully. And so, I just want to say thank you for taking the time to talk with us today.James Lord: I really enjoyed it. Looking forward to the next one.Michael Zezas: Great. And thank you for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dialogue. Airbnb's Growth, New Businesses, Defending Mature Margins, and Diatribe on Sell-Side Q&A

The Synopsis

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 39:13

In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we give an update on Airbnb after 1Q25 earnings. Check out our written business updates for $ABNB below! Airbnb 1Q25 Business Update ~*~ For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, including our CoStar Group and Evolution Extensive Research Reports, become a Speedwell Member here. Please reach out to info@speedwellresearch.com if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (1:49) — Airbnb High Level Update (6:40) — Diatribe on Sell-Side Analyst Q&A (9:00) — Airbnb Growth Slowdown and Macro (22:30) — Airbnb's New Businesses (29:30) — Valuation, Mature Margin Defense -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. Please reach out to info@speedwellresearch.com if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it. *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of publication, one or more contributors to this report has a position in ABNB. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in ABNB. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

Toon van Dijk (Jamin) over de toekomst van de snoepindustrie

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 119:28

Terwijl de overheid de strijd tegen obesitas probeert te voeren, zette Jamin vol in op nasi goreng paaseieren. Hoe is dat met elkaar te rijmen? Toon van Dijk algemeen directeur van Jamin is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Boardroompanel De overname van Hunkemöller door zijn grootste schuldeiser heeft ABN Amro en ING financieel niet veel goeds gedaan. EN: zijn geopolitieke onderwerpen het gespreksonderwerp in de boardroom van Philips? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het boardroompanel met: -Helene Vletter, Hoogleraar financieel recht & governance aan de Erasmus universiteit, Partner van De Bestuurskamer en Commissaris bij oa STMicroelectronics en bij de NPO -Harm-Jan de Kluiver, hoogleraar ondernemingsrecht aan de UvA, voormalig advocaat bij De Brauw. Luister I Boardroompanel Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

spotify partner apple podcast macro ing philips uva erasmus terwijl toon dijk de toekomst van dijk jamin abn amro hoogleraar stmicroelectronics zijl commissaris abonneren hunkem arnoud boot bnr zakendoen edin mujagi

Are Investors Searching for New ‘Safe Havens'?

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Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 5:44

The traditional correlations between some asset classes went haywire in April. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur discuss whether, in this environment, investors still consider U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar to be reliable ports in a storm. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist.Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Serena Tang: Today's topic, how investors' perceptions of safe havens are evolving, the impact on correlation between asset classes, and what all this means for your portfolio.It's Wednesday, May 7th at 10am in New York.April was a really challenging month, and some market moves were highly unusual. There was also a lot of investor concern whether U.S. Treasuries would continue to be a safe haven. In fact, this became one of the biggest market debates over the last few weeks.Vishy, let's start here. Prior to this recent sell off, foreign investors looked at U.S. assets as a safe haven. Why is that? And is it still the case now after this turbulent month?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, if you just step back and look at it, U.S. enjoyed positive growth differentials and positive yield differentials with developed markets in the rest of the world. On top of that, there was a consistent policy – not necessarily infallible policy – but there's a consistent policy with a clear sense of demarcation between the executive and the central bank.All of this meant U.S. was a very attractive destination for foreign investor flows. Not only during periods of normalcy where U.S. equities really attracted inflows and performed really well, but also during the periods of economic stress; where even periods where the stress was coming from the U.S. itself, such as the Global Financial Crisis. This correlation between bonds and stocks held and U.S. Treasuries were the safe haven asset as the single largest and most liquid, and highly negatively correlated asset with risk assets. So that really worked.What we are now seeing is that growth differential I talked about may no longer be holding. You know, for these [20]25 and [20]26 U.S. and euro area growth basically will converge – and if our economists' expectations are right, in 2026, euro area will be growing at a faster pace than the U.S.So, growth differential argument is fading. And there are some questions about the continued Fed independence. So put all these things together. Some investors are beginning to question whether U.S. assets will continue to be safe haven assets.So let me come back to you Serena. There've been some recent market moves that have been extremely unusual. That's what created all this debate. In some of – a few days in April, during the periods of sell off, we had both stocks and bonds selling off. And it felt like cross-asset correlations have gone totally haywire.So, can you talk a little bit about which correlations have changed? Which correlations have held up in these sell off?Serena Tang: What was highly unusual, and I think reflects part of the debate on U.S. as a safe haven, is the correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar. It is very high at the moment, about sort of two standard deviation above the five-year average. While it's not unheard of for FX stocks correlation to be high, it is usually more associated with EM or emerging markets rather than DM or developed markets. As a means, investors now require higher risk premium for holding the equities, which is a risk asset; but also holding the dollar, which again, traditionally is not thought of as a risk asset.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, how did the correlation between bonds and stocks hold up in this period?Serena Tang: Surprisingly, the correlation have really, really held up. Stocks and bond return correlation turned very negative during the sell off that we saw, which means that equity losses were actually offset by bond returns. Now, this isn't entirely true across the curve. You saw 2 Year Treasuries being a much effective diversifier than say the 30 Year Treasury. But all in all, I think it means bonds still work as a diversifier.Now on this point Vishy, how do you think policy will impact asset correlations we've been talking about, as well as the perception of U.S. assets as a safe haven.Vishy Tirupattur: So, as I said before, positive growth differentials fade, and we have negative growth differential. And if there are continued questions about the Fed's independence, so some of the attraction of U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven asset, will be challenged. But that challenge hits the practical reality of the size and the scale of the safe haven assets.So, if you look around, if you add the comparably rated European government bond market and compare that to the U.S. government bond market, the U.S. market is about 10 times as larger. So, more scale, more liquidity, and the ability to deploy capital during the periods of stress is clearly more in the U.S.So, this is what I would say. The status of U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as the global safe haven asset have taken a bit of a ding, but not gone away.Serena Tang: Vishy, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Great speaking with you, Serena, as always.Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Q2 update

UBS On-Air

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 14:07

Paul stops by the studio for a Q2 update on the CEO Macro Briefing Book series - we discuss how uncertainty surrounding the macro environment and course for US trade policy has some investors openly questioning the sustainability of US exceptionalism. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

macro briefing

Micro Targeting with a Macro View

LUNCH! with Shelley

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 55:17

Welcome to the latest episode of Lunch with Shelley with today's special guest Sara Taylor Fagan! Sara, aside from being my birthday buddy, is a true data whiz, a serial entrepreneur, the Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Tunnl, and a regular contributor on NBC's Meet the Press. Join us and Claude at the always fun and delicious Café Milano for a really interesting conversation that includes chats about polls, microtargeting, behind the scenes in the green room, and memorable stories from Sara's White House Days. Check us out at www.lunchwithshelley.com or wherever you get your favorite podcast, and in the meantime Peace, Love and Lunch!

Análisis de divisas y datos macro

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 7:07

Lo analizamos con Joaquín Robles, director de Ventas de banco BIG. Hablamos sobre la decisión de la FED de mantener tipos, los datos de ventas minoristas en la zona euro y de pedidos de fábrica de Alemania y el banco central de China, entre otros.

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Pieter Bootsma (Royal FloraHolland) over de handel op de bloemen- en plantenveiling

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 118:22

Royal FloraHolland is een coörperatie met ruim 3000 kwekers van bloemen en planten onder zich. Uit alle windstreken komen kwekers aan in de veilinghallen van FloraHolland. Hoe zorg je dat elke kweker weer tevreden naar huis gaat? En: kan de corporatie wel zonder feestdagen zoals Valentijn en Moederdag? Pieter Bootsma van Royal FloraHolland is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Lobbypanel Milieorganisaties willen binnen twee weken met minister Wiersma aan tafel, anders volgen er rechtszaken. Hoe goed werken zulke dreigementen om een minister aan tafel te krijgen? En vandaag begint het conclaaf in het Vaticaan, hoe gaat zo'n lobby er aantoe? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het lobbypanel met: -Frits Huffnagel, oprichter van Castro Communicatie en Lobby en oud-wethouder. -Marja Ruigrok, wethouder Economie Haarlemmermeer, oud-ondernemer Luister l Lobbypanel Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Ranking the Best Sports Broadcasters | May 6, 2025

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Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 119:39

On today's episode Big T and Arian take the reins and discuss all things happening in the news. Enjoy! (00:12:52) Donald Trump wants to reopen Alcatraz (00:16:46) Ask ChatGPT (00:30:12) Eric Adams creates the “panic button” in NYC (00:37:11) Arian got a wasp bite (00:40:53) Best buzzer beater sports moments (00:59:22) RIP to Skype (01:03:06) Best buzzer beater sports moments (01:06:23) NBA Playoffs (01:18:09) Best sports announcers (01:29:47) Voicemails Look for MAD DOG by MD 20/20 in your local stores and at drinkMD2020.com now! Must be 21+ to purchase. Download the Gametime app today and use code MACRO for $20 off your first purchase Grab Miss Peaches now at https://stellabluecoffee.com and use promo code MACRO for 20% off orders of $25 or more Order now online at https://ihatestevensinger.com or from Steven Singer Jewelers in PhillyYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

U.S. Economy: Solid Footing For Now, Uncertainty Ahead

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 11:18

With the May FOMC meeting in progress, our analysts Matt Hornbach and Michael Gapen offer perspective on U.S. economic projections and whether markets are aligned.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting underway, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, May 6th at 10am in New York.Mike, before we talk about your expectations for the FOMC meeting itself, I wanted to get your take on the U.S. economy heading into the meeting. How are you seeing things today? And in particular, how do you think what happened on April 2nd, so-called Liberation Day, affects the outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think right now, Matt, I would say the economy's still on relatively solid footing, and by that I mean the economy had been moderating. Yes, the first quarter GDP print was negative. But that was mainly because firms were frontloading a lot of inventories through imports. So imports were up over 40 percent at an annualized pace in the quarter. A lot of that went into inventories and into business spending. That was just a mechanical drag on activity.And the April employment report, I think, showed the same thing. We're now averaging about 145,000 jobs per month this year. That's down from about 170,000 per month in the second half of last year. So the hiring rate is slowing down, but no signs of a sudden stop. No signs in layoffs picking up. So I'd say the economy is on fairly solid footing, and the labor market is also on fairly solid footing – as we enter the period now when we think tariffs will have a greater effect on the outlook. So you asked, you know, Liberation Day. How does that affect the outlook? Right now we'd say it puts a lot of uncertainty in front of us. on pretty solid footing now. But Matt, looking forward, we have a lot of concerns about where things may go and we expect activity to slow and inflation to rise.Matthew Hornbach: That's great background, Mike, for what I want to ask you about next, which is of course the FOMC meeting this week. We won't get a new set of economic projections from the committee. But if we did, what do you think they would do with them and how would you assess the reaction function one might be able to tease out of those economic projections?Michael Gapen: You're right, we don't get a new set of projections, but New York Fed President John Williams did provide some indication about how he adjusted his forecast, and John tends to be one of the – kind of a median participant.He tends to be centrist in his thinking and his projection. So I do think that that gives us an indication of what the Fed is thinking; and he said he expects GDP growth to slow to somewhat below 1 percent in 2025. He expects inflation to rise to 3.5 to 4 percent this year, and he said the unemployment rates likely to move between 4.5 and 5 percent over the next year. And those phrases are really key. That's the same thing, Matt, as you know, we are expecting for the U.S. economy and I do think the Fed is thinking of it the same way.Matthew Hornbach: So one final question for you, Mike. In terms of this meeting itself, what are you expecting the Fed to deliver this week? And what are the risks you see being around that expectation; you know, that might catch investors off guard?Michael Gapen:I think the Fed's main message this week will be that they're prepared to wait, that they think policy's in a good spot right now. They think inflation will be rising sharply, that the tariff shock is a lot larger than they had anticipated earlier this year. And they will need time to assess whether that inflation impulse is transitory, or whether it creates more persistent inflation. So I think what they will say is we're in a good position to wait and we need clarity on the outlook before we can act.In this case, we think acting means doing nothing. But acting could also mean cutting if the labor market weakens. So I think there'll be worried about inflation today, a weak labor market tomorrow. And so I think risks around this meeting really are tilted in the direction of a more hawkish message than markets are expecting at least vis-a-vis current pricing. I think the market wants to hear the Fed will be ready to support the economy. Of course, we think they will, but I think the Fed's also going to be worried about inflation pressures in the near term. So that, I think, might catch investors off guard.So Matt, what I think might catch investors off guard may be a little misplaced. I'm an economist after all. You're the strategist, you're the expert on the treasury market and how investors may be perceiving events at the moment. So the treasury market had quite the month since April 2nd. For a moment U.S. treasuries didn't act like the safe haven asset many have come to expect. What do you think happened?Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, you're absolutely right. Treasury yields initially fell, but then spent a healthy portion of the last month rising and investors were caught off guard by what they saw happening in the treasury market. I've seen this type of behavior in the treasury market, which I've been watching now for 25 years. I've seen this happen twice before in my career. The first time was during the Great Financial Crisis, and the second time I saw it was in March of 2020. So, this being the third time you know, I don't know if it was the charm or if it was something else, but treasury yields went up quite a bit.I think what investors were witnessing in the treasury market is really a reflection of the degree of uncertainty and the breadth with which that uncertainty, traversed the world. Both the Great Financial Crisis and the initial stage of the pandemic in March of 2020 were events that were global in nature. They were in many ways systemic in nature, and they were events that most investors hadn't contemplated or seen in their lifetimes. And when this happens, I think investors tend to reduce risk in all of its forms until the dust settles. And one of those very important forms of risk in the fixed income markets is duration risk.So, I think investors were paring back duration risk, which helped the U.S. Treasury market perform pretty poorly at one moment over the past month.Michael Gapen: So Matt, one aspect of market pricing that stands out to me is how rates markets are pricing 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. And just after April 2nd, the market had priced in about 100 basis points of cuts.How are you thinking about the market pricing today? Matt, as you know, it differs quite a bit from what we think will happen.Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. This is where, you know, understanding that market prices in the interest rate complex reflect the average outcome of a wide variety of scenarios; really every scenario that is conceivable in the minds of investors. And, of course, as you mentioned, Mike depending on exactly how this year ends up playing out there, there could be a scenario in which the Federal Reserve has to lower rates much more aggressively than perhaps even markets are pricing today.So, the market being an average of a wide variety of outcome will find it really challenging to take out all of the rate cuts that are priced in today. Or said differently, the market will find it challenging to price in your baseline scenario. And ultimately, I think the way in which the market ends up truing up to your projections, Mike, is just with time.I think as we make our way through this year and the economic data come in, in-line with your baseline projections, the market will eventually price out those rate cuts that you see in there today. But that's going to take time. It's going to take investors growing increasingly comfortable that we can avoid a recession at least in perception this year before, you know, on your projections, we have a bit of a slower economy in 2026.Michael Gapen: Well, it definitely does feel like a bimodal world, where investor conviction is low. Matt, where do you have conviction in the rates market today?Matthew Hornbach: So, the way we've been thinking about this environment where we can avoid a recession this year, but maybe 2026 the risks rise a bit more. We think that that's the type of environment where the yield curve in the United States can steepen, and what that means practically is that yields on longer maturity bonds will go up relative to yields on shorter maturity bonds. So, you get this steepening of the yield curve. And that is where we have the highest conviction; in terms of, what happens with the Treasury market this year is we have a steeper yield curve by the time we get to December.Now part of that steepening we think comes because as we approach 2026 where Mike, you have the Fed beginning to lower rates in your baseline, the market will have to increasingly price with more conviction a lower policy rate from the Fed. But then at the same time, you know, we probably will have an environment where treasury supply will have to increase.As a result of the fiscal policies that the government is discussing at the moment. And so you have this environment where yields on longer maturity securities are pressured higher relative to yields on shorter maturity treasuries.So, with that, Mike, we'll wrap our conversation. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: It's been great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Win Streak Ends and Fed Watch Begins, Palantir Tumbles, CEOs' Macro Message at Milken 5/6/25

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 43:02

Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Mike Santoli discussed stocks extending Monday's losses after the broader market snapped its nine-day win streak. The Fed's two-day policy meeting also in the spotlight ahead of Wednesday's decision on interest rates. The anchors explored Palantir shares taking a hit despite upbeat results and guidance: What's next for what has been a high-flying stock? Also in focus: An AI warning from legendary investorPaul Tudor Jones, Ford suspends guidance in wake of tariffs, what CEOs at the Milken Institute Global Conference told David about the macro environment. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

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Análisis macro y vistazo a las principales divisas

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 11:07

Filipe Aires, analista de AFI, destaca las claves macro y divisas de la jornada. Nos fijamos en la FED de Atlanta, Powell y Trump, los datos de PMI europeos, el dato de Precios al Productor en la eurozona y el euro.

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Gerben Everts (VEB) over of beursgenoteerde bedrijven zich moeten voorbereiden op de importtarieven

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 117:17

De importtarieven zorgen voor kopzorgen tijdens de aandeelhoudersvergadering. De VEB eist daarom dat bedrijven scenario’s klaar hebben liggen. Maar kan dat wel? Gerben Everts, directeur van de Vereniging van Effectenbezitters is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Beleggerspanel De kwartaalcijfers van techgigaten Meta, Microsoft, Amazon en Apple vielen niet tegen. En: dit weekend kondigde beleggingslegende Warren Buffet zijn vertrek aan bij Berkshire Hathaway. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het beleggerspanel met: -Jean-Paul van Oudheusden van eToro, tevens oprichter van Markets are Everywhere. -Arend Jan Kamp van beleggerssite StockWatch en de podcast Het Beurscafé Luister l Beleggerspanel https://www.bnr.nl/podcast/zakendoen-beleggen Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail: zaken@bnr.nl. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Munis: Tax-Free Income in Times of Stress

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 9:27

Morgan Stanley Research analyst Mark Schmidt and Investment Management's Craig Brandon discuss the heightened uncertainty in the U.S. municipal bonds market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.For a full list of episode disclosures click here.----- Transcript -----Mark Schmidt: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mark Schmidt, Morgan Stanley's Head of Municipal Strategy.Craig Brandon: I'm Craig Brandon, Co-Director of Municipal Investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Mark Schmidt: Today, let's talk about the biggest market you hardly ever hear about – municipal bonds, a $4 trillion asset class.It's Monday, May 5th at 10am in Boston.Mark Schmidt: If you've driven, flown, gone to school or turned on a tap, chances are munis made it happen. Although munis are late cycle haven, they were not immune to the latest bout of market volatility. Craig, why was April so tough?Craig Brandon: So, what we say in April, it was sort of the trifecta of things that happened that were a little different than other asset classes. The first thing that happened is we saw a significant increase in treasury rates – and munis are generally correlated to treasuries. We're a very high-quality asset class, that's viewed as a duration asset class. So, one thing we saw were rates going up. When we see rates going up, you generally see money coming out of the market, right? So, I think investors were a little bit impacted by the higher rates, the correlation to treasuries, the duration, and saw some flows out of the market.Secondly, what we saw is conversation about the tax exemption in Washington D.C. What that did is it caused muni issuers to pull their issuance forward. So, if you're an infrastructure issuer, you are issuing bonds in the next year to year and a half; you're going to pull that forward because if there's any risk of loss of the tax exemption, you want to get these bonds issued today. So that's basically what drives technicals. It's supply and demand. So, what we saw was a decrease in demand because of higher rates; an increase in supply because of issuance being pulled forward.And the third part of the trifecta we refer to is the conversations about the economy. So, I would put that, it's sort of a distant third, but there's still conversations about maybe credit weakness driven by a slowing economy.Mark Schmidt: Craig, your team has been through a lot of tough market cycles. Given your experience, how did the most recent selloff compare? And why was it not like 2008?Craig Brandon: I started my career back in 1998 during the long-term capital management crisis. I lived through 2008. I lived through the COVID crisis, and you know, really when I look at the crisis in 2008 – no banks went out of business three weeks ago, right? In 2008 we were really sitting on a trading desk wondering where this was going to end.You know, we had a number of meetings with our staff, over the last couple weeks explaining to them why it was different and how. Yes, there was some volatility here, but you could see that there was going to be an end to this, and this was not going to be a permanent restructuring of the market. So, I think we felt comfortable. It was very different than 2008 and it really felt different than COVID.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring. But with economic growth set to slow sharply, how does your credit team think the fiscal health of America's state and local governments will hold up?Craig Brandon: Well, remember state and local governments, and when we're talking about munis, we're also talking about other infrastructure asset classes like water and sewer bonds. Like, you know, transportation, bonds, airports. We're talking about toll roads.They went into this with a very strong balance sheet, right? Remember, there was a lot of infrastructure money spent by the federal government during COVID to give issuers money to make it through COVID. There's still a lot of money on balance sheets. So, what we do is we're going into this crisis with a lot of cash on balance sheets, allowing issuers to be able to withstand some weakness in the economy and get through to the other side of this.Mark Schmidt: Not only do state and local governments have a lot of cash, but they're just not that impacted by tariffs, right? So why did muni yields perform worse than U.S. treasuries over the past couple of weeks?Craig Brandon: Right. It really… We're technically driven, right? The U.S. muni market is more retail driven than some other asset classes. Remember – investment grade corporates, treasury bonds, there's a lot of institutional buyers in those markets. In the municipal market, it's primarily retail driven.So, when you know, individual retail investors get nervous, they tend to pull money out of the market. So, what we saw was money coming out of the market. At the same time, we saw an individual increase in more bonds, which just led to very weak technicals, which when we see that it eventually reverses itself.Mark Schmidt: Now I almost buried the lede, right? Why invest in munis? Well, they're great credit quality, but they're also tax free. In fact, muni bonds have been exempt from federal taxes for over a century. You have a lot of experience putting together tax bills, and right now people are worried about tax reform. Do you think investors should be concerned?Craig Brandon: Listen. I'm not really losing a lot of sleep at night over the tax exemption. And I think there's other, you know, issues to worry about. Why do I say that?As you mentioned Mark, I spent the early years of my career working for the New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee. I spent seven years negotiating budgets and what that did is it gave me a window – into how, you know, not only state budgets, but the federal budget gets put together.So, what it also showed me was the relationship between state and local elected officials and your representatives in Congress and your representatives in the Senate. So, I know firsthand that members of Congress and members of the Senate in Washington have very close relationships with members of the state legislatures, with governors, with mayors, with city council members, with school board members – who are all delivering the message that significantly higher financing costs that could potentially happen from the loss of the exemption, could be meaningful to them.And I think members of Congress and members of the Senate and Washington get it. They understand it because they were all there when it happened. The last time the muni exemption came under fire was back in 2012; and in 2012, a lot of members of Congress were in the state legislature back then, so they understand it.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring because right now, tax equivalent yields in the muni market are 7 to 8 per cent. That's equal to or greater than the long run rate of return on the stock market. So, whether to invest in the muni market seems pretty straightforward. How to invest in the muni market? Well, with 50,000 issuers, that's a little complicated. How do you recommend investors get exposure to tax-free munis right now?Craig Brandon: Well, and that is a very common question. The muni market can be very confusing because there are just so many bonds out there. You know, over 50,000 issuers, there's over a million individual CUSIPs in the muni market.So as an individual investor, where do you start? There's different coupon structures, different call structures, different maturity structures, ratings. There's so many different variables that go into a decision in investing in muni bonds.I can make an argument that you could probably mimic the S&P 500 with 500 different stocks. But most muni indices are over 50,000 constituents. It's very difficult to replicate the muni market by yourself, which is why a lot of people, you know, they let professional money managers, do the investing for them. Whether you're looking at mutual funds, whether you're looking at separately managed accounts, whether you're looking at exchange traded fund ETFs, there's a lot of different ways to get exposure to the muni market. But with the huge amount of choices you have to make, I think a lot of individual investors would just let a professional with the experience do it.Mark Schmidt: And active managers let you customize portfolios to your unique tax situation and risk tolerance. So, Craig, a final question for you. How do munis fit into a diversified portfolio?Craig Brandon: Munis are generally the stable part of most people's portfolios. Remember, you don't have a choice of whether you're going to pay your taxes or not. You have to pay your taxes, you have to pay your water bill, you have to pay your power bill. You have to pay tolls on highways. You have to pay airport fees when you buy an airline ticket, right?It's not an option. So, because the revenue streams are so stable, you see most muni bonds rated AA or AAA. The default rate for rated munis is significantly below 1 per cent. It's something in the ballpark of about 0.2 per cent*. So, with such a low default rate – listen, we're technically driven, as I said. You see ups and downs in the market. But over a longer period of time, munis can give you generally stable returns, tax exempt income over the long term, and they're one of the more stable asset classes that you see in your overall portfolio.Mark Schmidt: That sounds boring, and I mean that in the best possible way. Craig, thanks so much for your time today.Craig Brandon: Thanks, Mark, happy to be hereMark Schmidt: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*“US Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2021” – Moody's Investor ServicesDisclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Risk ConsiderationsDiversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g., natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts, and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g., portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in a portfolio. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. An imbalance in supply and demand in the municipal market may result in valuation uncertainties and greater volatility, less liquidity, widening credit spreads and a lack of price transparency in the market. There generally is limited public information about municipal issuers. Income from tax-exempt municipal obligations could be declared taxable because of changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the relevant taxing authority or the non-compliant conduct of the issuer of an obligation and may subject to the federal alternative minimum tax.There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the particular strategy may include securities that may not necessarily track the performance of a particular index. 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Is Trump's Plan Working? | Mikkel Rosenvold & Andreas Steno Larsen | Macro Mondays

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 34:41

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, the company's partner and head of geopolitics, to dissect whether Donald Trump's trade war strategy is bearing fruit as China purchases U.S. Treasuries. Plus, they examine what sparked a sudden volatility spike in the New Taiwan dollar.

Skanda Amarnath on the Future of the Federal Reserve and it's Framework

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 59:48

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America. Skanda returns to the show to discuss the standing of Humphrey's Executor, the prospects for the Fed's Framework Review, the case for NGDP Targeting, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on April 16th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Skanda on X: @IrvingSwisher Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:01) – Humphrey's Executor (00:12:35) – The Fed's Framework Review (00:37:18) – Fed's Communication (00:47:36) – Productivity (00:59:07) – Outro

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Bitcoin Is About To Explode To $140,000 - Here's Why! | Macro Monday

The Wolf Of All Streets

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 61:08

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

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140. The 80/20 Macro Rule: Is It Biblical, Helpful… or Holding You Back from Real Results?

Move Your Body Differently

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 18:51

You've heard the advice: eat healthy 80% of the time, enjoy the other 20%. Sounds reasonable—until it quietly becomes another rule that adds guilt, pressure, or inconsistency to your health journey. In today's episode, we're breaking down the truth about the 80/20 macro rule and asking: Is it truly helpful for Christian women—or a sneaky form of legalism? Where does it fall short when you're trying to build consistent health habits? How can you pursue both discipline and grace in your fitness journey? If you've ever felt like: You're “good” Monday–Friday but spiral on the weekend… You “earn” fun foods only by being strict… Or you've tried to follow 80/20 but feel more confused than confident... ...this is your episode. We'll explore how the 80/20 rule can work only when you already have health rhythms in place—and why that's not most women's reality. You'll also hear practical tips for how to build sustainable strength and food rhythms that reflect your faith and actually work in your real life.

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Macro Monday Ep 70: Assessing the aftermath of April's tariffs

Investec Focus Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 8:23

Despite the tariff turmoil last month, US equities overcame the initial Liberation Day turmoil to end higher over the month. However, as Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, points out, the rest of the world has been outperforming the US. Investec Focus Radio SA

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Le Groenland est riche en ressources mais il n'est pas à vendre !

Eco d'ici Eco d'ailleurs

Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2025 58:03

Du Groenland au Gabon en passant par le Royaume-Uni, c'est un nouveau voyage sur la planète économie que nous vous proposons, dans des pays qui chacun à leur manière tentent d'assurer leur souveraineté tout en cherchant à attirer les investisseurs. Découvrez nos reportages et nos interviews exclusives.

Why the UK May Be Poised for a Surprising Rebound

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 8:14

Despite news that the UK economy is set to slow due to uncertainty around US trade policy, our analysts Andrew Sheets and Bruna Skarica explain why they have a more optimistic outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Chief UK Economist at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today we're going to talk about the United Kingdom and why, despite a downbeat outlook by many in the market, we remain more optimistic.It's Friday, May 2nd at 2pm in London.Bruna, it's great to talk to you again about the UK and not just because this is an unusual day in London where it's sunny and warm, and at the moment warmer than Los Angeles. You know, when discussing the UK, I do think you kind of need to take a step back. This is a country and an economy that's had a tough number of years where growth has been sub-trend, inflation's been higher, and a lot of assets have traded at a discount.So maybe just to give some context, talk to us a little bit about the last couple of years in the UK and the challenges the economy has faced.Bruna Skarica: Indeed, Andrew, I do think it's important to take a step back to appreciate just the amount of supply side shocks the UK has seen in recent years. First, between 2016 and 2020, of course, the country had to navigate Brexit negotiations. The elevated uncertainty kept a lid on business CapEx. In 2020, of course, as the rest of the world, we saw the lockdown and the pandemic. What followed were supply chain disruptions, and then, the European energy shock in 2022. I do want to zoom in on this final point because in its scale, the natural gas price surge in the UK was twice more of a hit to growth compared to the 1970s oil price shock.We've also seen a fair share of volatile market moves, most notably around the mini budget in the autumn of 2022. On top of all of this, the Bank of England into these supply side shocks had to hike interest rates to cap the inflation surge. And they went to above 5 per cent and have recently been relatively slower in reducing policy restrictiveness than most of its peers.So, when you tally all these factors up, it's really no surprise that the UK has seen an exceptionally weak post COVID recovery.Andrew Sheets: And that's continued right into this year. You know, I remember a lot of conversations with global investors heading into 2025, and again, the sentiment around the UK was kind of downbeat. Growth was pretty soft. Inflation was still high. Because inflation was high, interest rates here were still quite high. And so, you really had this, you know, unattractive mix of weak growth, high inflation, tight monetary policy. And then you could throw onto that, this uncertainty around the U.S. and trade. And you had a Trump administration that was adopting a more adversarial policy towards trade and towards Europe, which the UK was getting caught up in.So, you know – again, did I miss any of the challenges that the UK was facing, entering this year?Bruna Skarica: No, I think that's a great summary. First, at the end of last year, of course, the government faced some pretty tough decisions in the October budget, and they hiked a tax – a payroll tax really – in order to balance the books, which created somewhat subdued sentiment around the labor market this year.Now the labor market has been soft in the UK at the start of this year, but it did hold up a little bit better perhaps than the expectations from the end of last year. At the start of the year, we also saw the energy inflation forecast rise. So, that led to a more cautious tone by the Bank of England in February and March, as you mentioned. And now on the trade front, although we have a small manufacturing sector, we are a small open economy, we're a big beta to global growth dynamics.I would just like to mention here that one of the real bright spots of the UK economy in recent years have been services exports to the U.S., the kind of high-value-added white-collar services exports, which rose between 2019 and 2023 by 50 per cent. Now with the growth in the U.S. slowing and obviously the Euro area as well, UK growth will be affected too this year. We actually took our growth forecast down by around 30 basis points in our latest GDP revisions.Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, we're here to talk about the future and you know, I do think it's fair to say that going forward we think this picture is starting to look better. So, let's jump right into that. Across a number of specific points. Why do we think the UK story could look better as you look ahead?Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. I mean, the last point that I mentioned, I do think I want to put it in context. The trade related revisions in the UK are still less than what our colleagues in the euro area and the U.S. had undertaken in recent months on the back of the U.S. trade policy shifts. So, the UK does look a little bit like a relative winner there.Second, we now think that inflation can come down faster than both the Bank of England and the market expected at the beginning of the year. Commodities prices will do a fair bit of heavy lifting this year, but we do think that next year in particular, domestically generated inflation could slow fairly sharply as wage growth sticks around 3 to 3.5 per cent, which we think is fairly inflation target consistent.This all means the Bank of England should be able to cut more than the markets expect. We anticipate 125 basis point worth of cuts between May and November, and we think the terminal rate could fall to as low as 2 ¾. So, we think the neutral rate in the UK is between 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, and we do think the market still has a bit of adjustment to do in the sense of the pricing of the terminal rate one and two years ahead.The third point around fiscal policy I think is quite interesting. Fiscal policy has been in great focus in the UK in recent years. We had a big fiscal event in October. We had another fiscal event just now in March. The borrowing increase was less than what the market expected. Deficit projections are such that we are expecting deficit to fall from around 4.8 per cent this year to 3 per cent over the course of the next three years, and for debt to GDP ratio to remain at around 100 per cent of GDP. I would perhaps contrast that with France where our economist is expecting the deficit to remain north of 5 per cent over the course of the next two years.Finally, an important point to make is that the UK government amid trade shifts in the U.S. is looking for a closer relationship with the EU, or rather a trade reset with the EU. EU remains our closest trading partner and in the aftermath of Brexit, the current government has an ambition to improve trading in food and goods; and also to ensure that the UK is part of the European Defense Program, which would allow UK defense companies to partake in the defense and security path that the European Union presented in recent weeks. There is a summit being held on May 19th, and obviously the trade and corporation agreement is coming up for revision in 2026.So, we do think those relations between UK and the EU could become somewhat closer over the course of this year and next.But now a question from me, which is, what does all this mean on the strategy side? UK assets have obviously been quite unloved in recent years. Do you think that's about to change?Andrew Sheets: So again, I think it's pretty interesting that markets are anticipatory, and I think markets are pretty smart here. So, you've already seen the British pound, the currency do quite well. This year it's up against the dollar. You've seen the UK stock market do quite well. It's up about 5 per cent this year, despite the S&P 500 being down quite significantly.So, you're already seeing, I think, some signs that investors are warming up to the UK and you know, I do think that if our expectations play out, that could continue. You know, UK stocks do tend to be concentrated and slower growing, less exciting sectors. But their valuations are also less demanding. You know, the U.S. Stock Index trades at about 21 times next year's earnings. The UK stock market trades a little bit under 13 times next year's earnings.And I also think it's really important that if the Bank of England does cut interest rates more than the market expects, which again, as you discussed, is one of our expectations here at Morgan Stanley, that could be pretty supportive for the UK bond market, which continues to offer pretty high yields.Bruna, thanks for joining me for this conversation. It's always great to catch up with you.Bruna Skarica: My pleasure, Andrew. Thank you for the invite.Andrew Sheets: And thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Can South Korea Afford To Grow Old?

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 4:32

Our Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist Kathleen Oh discusses Korea's recent pension reform and its implications for the country's rapidly aging population.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Kathleen Oh, Morgan Stanley's Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist. Today I'll revisit Korea's demographic emergency and how the recent pension reform is trying to address it.It's Thursday, May 1st, at 4pm in Hong Kong.Some of you may remember that I came on the show last fall to talk about the crisis-level demographic challenges in Korea. Korea officially became a super-aged society at the end of 2024. This means that more than 20 per cent of the population is 65 or older.In the face of its rapidly aging population and a fertility rate that has hit rock bottom, Korea is taking decisive action finally. The national assembly recently passed a landmark pension reform bill to amend the National Pension Act. This measure marks the first major change to its pension system in 18 years. And it's supposed to improve the pension fund's financial sustainability to prepare for a rapidly aging population that will only accelerate from here.The amendments include raising pension contribution rates and adjusting the income replacement ratio to 43 per cent. These changes aim to delay the depletion of the fund to 2064 to 2071, in an upside scenario. Without this reform, the fund would have been depleted by 2055, just 30 years later.This reform avoids having to sell the fund's financial assets by delaying depletion. It also assures pension-holders of the stability of future pension assets. And, last but not least, it increases the pension fund's capacity for financial investments, which could lead to higher returns.This is the first step towards making legislative, and therefore more structural changes to respond to the reality of a super-aged society. Moreover, it kicks off a sweeping reform agenda that includes the pension program, labor market, education system, and capital markets.It's also notable because the center-left Democratic Party of Korea and the conservative People Power Party were able to show bipartisan support and a public consensus to reach a deal, especially during the recent tumultuous political events that took place in Korea.That said, the reform also has some potentially negative economic impacts. Higher pension contributions could squeeze households' disposable income, putting mild but additional downward pressure on aggregate consumption and savings. Especially considering that as people age, they tend to consume less – and this can lead to a structural slowdown in private consumption.Despite Korea's challenges with an aging population, we're cautiously optimistic about its future – especially because [of] the recent rebound in the country's fertility rate. After marking a drop every year since 2015, it rebounded to 0.75 in 2024. While still far below the ideal replacement ratio of 2.1, this rebound is a small but certainly a positive sign.Looking ahead, Korea's working population is expected to decrease by 50 per cent in the next 40 years unless the country ensures a dramatic rebound in the fertility rate to 1.0 or higher by 2030. In the meantime, we expect further adjustments to the pension reform bill, we expect further discussions around lifting of retirement age, along with the labor market reform next in line on the economic front. The Korean government will continue to execute on its demographic policy agenda.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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ROLLUP: ETH's Big Pivot | Tariff Recession? | Bitcoin's Political Win | Worldcoin US Launch!

Bankless

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 62:55

This week, Ryan and David dive into crypto's dramatic new re-prioritization (pivot?) as Ethereum is shifting rapidly, prioritizing Layer 1 scaling in a move that has sparked intense community debate. Meanwhile, macro turmoil hits crypto with a looming tariff-driven recession and signs of American capital flight shaking global markets. Bitcoin tightens its grip on Washington, cementing itself as digital gold in the eyes of the Trump administration, and Worldcoin launches a U.S. rollout amid rising fears of an AI-driven dystopia. Plus, Sui surges on wild Pokémon rumors, Ripple's bold move to buy Circle gets rejected, and Monero rockets after a massive Bitcoin hack. Is crypto entering a new golden age, or are these the early tremors of deeper uncertainty? Find out on this week's must-watch Weekly Rollup. ------

Bitcoin Pushes For $100K Despite Macro Uncertainty | Mando & Wizard of SoHo | REKT VISION

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 54:12

Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, Mando, is joined by Wizard of SoHo, former macro trader turned CIO at 100X Capital, to discuss the narratives and themes driving cryptocurrencies right now. They explore the U.S.-China trade thaw, this week's economic data, BTC's increasing dominance despite some altcoin recovery, and much more. Later in the show, they are joined by Andrew Parish from Arch Public, Real Vision's affiliate partner (go to realvision.com/arch to try algorithmic trading for free).

Was Shakespeare a Fraud? | May 1, 2025

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Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 137:41

On today's episode, we dive into the centuries-old debate: did William Shakespeare actually write all those famous plays, or was he just the face of someone else's genius? We unpack the theories, the evidence, and why people still care. Plus, we get into a wide-ranging rundown of this week's headlines: – Is the Quantum Apocalypse actually coming, or just sci-fi panic? – Bill Belichick releases a statement after his controversial book tour interview – Donald Trump's interpretation of the MS-13 tattoo – Prince Harry & Meghan Markle's “nicknames” for each other – Jersey Jerry joins us to break down the NFL Draft and share strong thoughts on the Shedeur Sanders prank phone call – A high school hazing incident out of Syracuse, NY that's sparking serious backlash Enjoy! (00:06:40) The Quantum Apocalypse (00:11:18) Bill Belichick's Statement (00:24:19) Trump & the MS13 Tattoo (00:30:44) Prince Harry & Meghan Markle (00:34:04) Jersey Jerry Joins The Show (00:48:56) High School Hazing Incident (01:23:46) William Shakespeare Download the Gametime app today and use code MACRO for $20 off your first purchase Connect with a provider at RO.co/MACRO to find out if prescription Ro Sparks are right for you and get $15 off your first order Sport Clips. The haircut experience, dialed in for guys. It's a Game Changer. Order now online at https://ihatestevensinger.com or from Steven Singer Jewelers in Philly Grab Miss Peaches now at https://stellabluecoffee.com and use promo code MACRO for 20% off orders of $25 or moreYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

MacroVoices #478 Luke Gromen: Trump Tariff Policy Will Drive Gold Even Higher

Macro Voices

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 73:28

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Luke Gromen. They'll discuss the market's Trump Tariff Tantrum, as Luke makes the bold case that President Trump could realistically raise enough tariff revenue to exempt the bottom 90% from federal income tax. https://bit.ly/3EOiD7t

donald trump strategy news gold drive investing finance financial investment policy trading substack tariffs macro macroeconomics luke gromen macro voices macrovoices erik townsend

Andy Constan on Today's Macro Backdrop

The Business Brew

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 58:29

Andy Constan stops by to discuss today's US macro backdrop. Importantly, this discuss was recorded on 4/24. Since then the narrative around the tax bill has gotten incrementally more stimulative. Do what you will with that information.Bill reached out to Andy after following him for a while on Twitter. Andy appears to use Twitter to educate, inform, and journal thoughts. Hence why he was invited to the show.As for Andy's formal background, his bio reads as follows:Andy Constan graduated with a degree in Bioengineering from the University of Pennsylvania in 1986.Following he spent 35 years investing and trading global equities, spending 17 years at Salomon Brothers.Following he started honing his Macroeconomic Knowledge in 2010 working at Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard.Since then he has worked on growing Damped Spring Advisors.We hope you enjoy the conversation.

Monthly Macro: April's Economic Rollercoaster

The William Blair Thinking Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 28:52

William Blair macro analyst Richard de Chazal breaks down a wild month of macroeconomic news, focusing on the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on the global economy, equity and bond markets, consumer confidence and corporate inventory strategies. Richard also shares his firsthand experience of Spain's recent power outage and its unexpected lessons. *Recorded April 30, 2025

donald trump spain economic roller coasters macro chazal william blair

MICRO TO MACRO | Soil Health is Plant Health [FULL PRESENTATION]

A Regenerative Future with Matt Powers

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 76:23

All Health Relies Upon MICROBES!! And while #SOIL is at the heart of all the cycles we rely upon, it is MICROBES that POWERS THEM ALL!! Learn more with #RegenerativeSoil the Online Course: https://matt-powers.mykajabi.com/regenerativesoil SIGNUP SOON BECAUSE THE NEW SEASON BEGINS 5/12!! Watch the Full Presentation on Youtube: https://youtu.be/KM0us7NoOmE

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Mark Kruger on China's Macro Outlook

The Negotiation

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 32:42

In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley is joined by Mark Kruger, a Senior Fellow at the Yicai Research Institute, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and the University of Alberta's China Institute. Formerly with the Bank of Canada for three decades, Mark now resides in Shanghai and writes regularly for Yicai Global, where he offers clear, data-driven analysis on China's economy. In today's episode, Todd and Mark dig into China's macroeconomic outlook in the wake of proposed new tariffs from Donald Trump and why Mark believes the country's 5% growth target remains achievable despite external pressure.The conversation explores Mark's recent columns, including “Is China's 5 Percent GDP Growth Credible?” He shares insights into the resilience of the Chinese economy, fiscal and monetary policy expectations, consumer confidence trends, and the ongoing property sector adjustment. Mark also weighs in on how Canada should navigate its own economic relationship with China during a time of rising global protectionism.Stay tuned for a sharp, timely conversation with one of the most thoughtful observers of China's economic evolution.Discussion Points:Why Trump's tariffs may not derail China's 5% GDP growth targetSigns of strength in China's Q1 economic dataThe resilience of Chinese consumer confidenceHow China's export profile is becoming more diversifiedPotential fiscal and monetary responses from Beijing to rising trade tensionsThe role of infrastructure investment and new manufacturing sectors in bolstering growthThe status and long-term management of China's property sectorCanada's strategic positioning in the context of US-China trade tensionsKey risks and tailwinds shaping China's medium-term economic outlookWhat foreign businesses should keep in mind when interpreting China's economic trajectory

A Possible Roadmap for U.S. Tariff Policy

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 10:56

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Rajeev Sibal unpack the significance of a little-discussed clause in the Trump administration's tariff policy, which suggests investors should think less about countries and more about products.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Rajeev Sibal: And I am Rajeev Sibal, Senior Global Economist.Michael Zezas: Today we look through the potential escalation and de-escalation of tariff rates and discuss what the lasting impact of higher tariffs will be for companies and the economy.It's Wednesday, April 30th at 11am in New York.Rajeev Sibal: And 4pm in London.Michael Zezas: Last week during a White House News conference, President Trump announced that tariffs on goods from China will come down substantially, but it won't be zero. And this was after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made comments about high tariffs against China being unsustainable, according to some news reports.Now, some of this has been walked back, and there's further discussion of challenging negotiations with China and potential escalations if those negotiations don't go well. Meanwhile, Canadian voters elected a Liberal government, led by Mark Carney yesterday. That federal election played out against the backdrop of the U.S. proposing higher tariffs on its northern neighbors. So, Rajeev, amidst all this noise, what seems clear is that tariff levels will end up higher than where we started before President Trump took office. Though we don't exactly know how high they will be. What is it that investors need to understand about the economic impacts of higher tariffs just generically?Rajeev Sibal: So yeah, we do view that tariffs are going to structurally be higher than they were before the Trump administration. This has been a baseline of our outlook since last year. Now I think the challenge is figuring out where they're going to settle as you've highlighted. We do think that peak tariff was probably a couple weeks ago, when we were at the max pain threshold, vis-a-vis China and the rest of the world. We've since seen the reciprocal tariffs move to 10 per cent for everyone but China.China's clearly higher than 60 per cent today, but we do think that over time the implied rate to China will start to graduate and come down. If you look at the electronics exemption for example, that's a big step in getting the average tariff rate out of China lower. So, we think we're on a journey. We think we were past peak tariff pain in terms of level. But over the next few months, it's going to take some time and negotiation to figure out where we settle. And we are still looking to kind of our baseline outlook, that had been defined some time ago of a 10 per cent baseline with an elevated level on China, if you will.Michael Zezas: So, I think this is an important point, that there's a lot of back and forth about tariff levels, which countries are going to be levied on, to what degree, and to what products. But at the end of the day, we think there'll be more tariffs than where we started.Rajeev, you have a view on where investors should focus, in terms of what tariffs are durable. And maybe at the end of the day it'll be less about countries and more about products. Can you talk us through that?Rajeev Sibal: You know, on April 2nd when the Trump administration released the fact sheet about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, there was a small clause in there that I think the market did not pay enough attention to, and which is becoming front and center now.And in that clause, they identified that a number of tariffs related to Section 232 would be exempted from reciprocal tariffs. And the notion is that country tariffs would evolve or shift into sector tariffs over time. And in the note that we recently published, we highlighted some of the legal mechanisms that may be at play here. There's still a lot of uncertainty as to how things will settle down, but what we do know is that legally speaking, country tariffs are coming through IEEPA, which is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act; whereas section and sector tariffs are coming through Section 232; and some of the other section structures that exist in U.S. trade law.And so, the experience of 2018 leaned a lot more to these sections than it did to IEEPA. And that was a guiding, I guess, mechanism for us, as we thought about what was happening in the current tariff structure. And the fact that the White House included this carve out, if you will, for Section 232 tariffs in their April 2nd fact sheet was a big lead indicator for us that, over time, there would be an increased shift towards sectors.And, so for us, we think the market should be focusing more in that direction. As we think about how this evolves over time, now that we've not completely de-escalated, but brought a materially lower tariff level and everywhere in the world except for China. The big variability is probably going to be in the sector tariffs now going forward.Michael Zezas: So, what sectors do you think are particularly in focus here?Rajeev Sibal: So, on the April 2nd fact sheet that the White House provided to countries and to the market, they specifically identified steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts as already having Section 232 tariffs. And we know that's true because those investigations had started in a prior Trump administration. And so, kind of the framework was already in place for them to execute those tariffs.The guidance then suggested that copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber would also potentially fall under Section 232 tariffs in the future. And then there's been a range of indications as to what might be in play, so to speak, for Section 232.I know pharmaceuticals is at the top of the list of many investors, as are semiconductors. So, this is our kind of sample list, but we're pretty certain that this will evolve over time. But that's where we're starting.Michael Zezas: Okay, so pharmaceutical, semiconductors, automobile, steel, aluminum. It's a pretty substantial list. So, if that's the sort of end game landscape here – relatively elevated China tariffs, and then all of these products specific tariffs – what does an investor need to know about a company's options in this world? Can companies just rewire their supply chains around all of this? And you know, ultimately there's some temporary price pain. But once things are rewired around this, that should dissipate. Or are the decisions more difficult than that and that there has to be some cost passed through to the consumer or to the companies themselves – because this is just too many tariffs in too many places?Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, so I think the latter of your question – the difficulty – is really where we need to be thinking about what's happening here. If you think about the bigger picture, and you go back to the note that we collaborated on earlier in the year called Supply Chain Strain, we highlighted the complexity of moving factors of production and the extreme levels of investment that have required to shift factors of production.So, companies, if they're going to move a factory from country A to country B, have to make sure that country B has the institutional framework, that it has the capital, it has the labor input, and this is a big, big decision. So, as a company you're not going to make that decision to shift your investment or reconstruct productive facilities in a new country – until you understand the cost benefit analysis. And in order to understand the cost benefit analysis, you really need to know what the sector-based Section 232 tariff looks like in the end.If we remember back in 2018, the government tried to implement a wide range of tariffs. On average, it took about 250 days for each investigation to be completed. And that's a long timeframe. And so, I think what we're going through now, apart from automobiles and steel and aluminum where that process has kind of already been done, and we kind of have the framework of the tariffs and the new sectors, companies are going to have to wait for this investigation to take place so that they understand what the tariff level is. Because the tariff level is going determine the risk of actually shifting productive facilities. Or if you just kind of absorb the cost because the tariff isn't at a high enough level that it incentivizes the shift.And so, these are the changes that I think remain an open question and will be the focus of companies over the next few months as their sectors are exposed to tariffs.Michael Zezas: Right. So, what I think I'm hearing then, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that some of the focus on the China tariffs or the country level specific tariffs in the headlines – about they're moving up, they're moving down – might mask that at the end of the day, we're still dealing with considerably higher tariffs on a broad enough array of products; that it will mean difficult choices for companies and/or higher costs. And so therefore markets are still going to have to price some of the economic challenges around that.Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. And we've seen the market try to price some of this stuff at a country level context. But it's been hard. And, you know, even the headline tariff rate in the U.S. is really hard to pin down for the simple reason that we don't know if the Mexican and Canadian trade into the U.S. is compliant or non-compliant, and how that gets counted in the current structure of the tariff regime. And so, as these questions remain outstanding, markets are going to be volatile, trying to figure out where the tariff level is. I think that uncertainty at a country level then shifts to the sector level as we go through these investigations that we've been highlighting.Autos is a great example. We finished the investigation. We've implemented a Section 232 tariff, and we still don't know what the implied auto tariff rate is because we don't know how many parts in a car are compliant within existing free trade agreements of the United States; and if they're compliant or not really determines what the implied tariff level is for the U.S. And until companies can decide and give forward guidance and understand what their margins look like, I think markets are going to be in this guessing game.Michael Zezas: Yeah, and that certainly syncs up with our fixed income strategy views. The idea that yield curves will continue to steepen to deal with the uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and demand for dollars, as a consequence. That equity markets might be moving sideways as perhaps we priced in some of the first order effects of tariffs, but not necessarily the second order, potentially non-linear effects on the broader global economy. And unfortunately, the lingering uncertainties that you talk about implementation, they're going to be with us for awhile.Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, I think that's really fair. And our economics outlook mirrors that as well.Michael Zezas: Well, Rajeev, thanks for joining us today to help us sort through all of thisRajeev Sibal: Mike, thanks for having me on the podcast.Michael Zezas: And to all of you, thanks for listening. If you found this podcast helpful, let us know and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Bits + Bips: Why It's Time to Be More Bullish on Bitcoin - Ep. 827

Unchained

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 86:45

While it's been a calmer week in the markets (thank God!), there's a lot to talk about! This week on Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia, and Steven Ehrlich, along with guest Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, dive into: Whether it's time to be bullish on all crypto assets Whether a Trump put actually exists The risks behind bitcoin treasury companies like the new Twenty One Capital Why Solana ETFs might not be the smash success people expect The controversial invite to the White House for $TRUMP holders Why there's a big disconnect in the markets Bitwise James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Steven Ehrlich, Executive Editor at Unchained Guest: Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments Twenty One: Recent coverage of Unchained on Twenty One: Why Twenty One Capital Is More About Volatility Than Bitcoin Twenty One Aims to Buy as Much Bitcoin as Possible. Can It Succeed? Press Release: Tether, SoftBank Group, and Jack Mallers Launch Twenty One, a Bitcoin-native Company, Through a Business Combination With Cantor Equity Partners Does The Market Still Control Trump? Donald Trump's chaos has left investors with frayed nerves 4 of the Mag7 Reporting This Week Big Tech's Earnings Problem Is Estimates May Be Way Too High $TRUMP Trump's Meme Coin Dinner Contest Earns Insiders $900,000 in Two Days Other: Apollo slides Timestamps:

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Christian Yelich Joins the Show + Bill Belichick's Girlfriend | April 29, 2025

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 114:16

On today's episode Arian gets a surprise visit from Christian Yelich, Brice Turang and Sal Frelick. Plus, the guys get into Bill Beliechick and his 24 year old girlfriend, the NFL draft and much more. Enjoy! Download the Gametime app today and use code MACRO for $20 off your first purchase Go to https://kraken.com/barstool to learn more Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 18+ (21+ in certain states) to open, own, or access an advance deposit wagering account and resident of state where DK Horse is available. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. Opt-in req. Min. $5 wager. Only the first straight single horse win wager on the Kentucky Derby placed after opt-in is eligible. Wager must win to qualify for an equal share of $1,000,000. Reward issued in cash within 7 days of race completion via a click to claim, which expires 30 days (720 hours) after receipt. Unclaimed rewards will be forfeited. Ends at the closing of the final wagering pool for the Kentucky Derby on 5/3/25. Terms: www.dkhorse.com/bet/offers/details. Sponsored by DK Horse. Order now online at https://ihatestevensinger.com or from Steven Singer Jewelers in Philly Grab Miss Peaches now at https://stellabluecoffee.com and use promo code MACRO for 20% off orders of $25 or moreYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

Is the Oil Market Flashing a Potential Recession Warning?

donald trump strategy global market investing economics markets recession oil alternatives gdp macro morgan stanley opec equities flashing fixed income oil markets

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 4:41

Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the ongoing volatility in the oil market and potential macroeconomic scenarios for the rest of this year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist. Today on the podcast – the uncertainty in the oil market and how it can play out for the rest of the year.It's Tuesday, April 29th, at 3pm in London.Now, notwithstanding the energy transition, the cornerstone of the world's energy system is still the oil market; and in that market, the most important price is the one for Brent crude oil. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices can have powerful ripple effects on various industries and sectors, as well as on the average consumer who, of course, pays attention to gasoline prices at the pump. Now with that in mind, we are asking the question: what's been happening in the global oil market recently?Earlier this month, Brent crude oil prices dropped sharply, falling 12.5 per cent over just two trading sessions, from around 75 dollars a barrel to close to 65 dollar a barrel. That was primarily driven by two factors: first, worries about the impact of trade wars on the global economy and therefore on oil demand, after the Trump administration's announcement of reciprocal tariffs.Secondly, was OPEC's announcement that, notwithstanding all the demand uncertainty that this created, it would still accelerate supply growth, progressing not only with the planned production increases for May; but bring forward the planned production increases for June and July as well. Now you can imagine, when OPEC releases extra production whilst the GDP outlook is weakening, understandably, this weighs on the price of oil.Now to put things into context, two-day declines of 12.5 per cent are rare. The Brent futures market was created in 1988, and since then this has only happened 24 times, and 22 of those instances coincided with recessions. So therefore, some commentators have taken the recent drop as a potential sign of an impending recession.Now while Brent prices have recovered slightly from the recent lows, they're still very volatile as they continue to reflect the ongoing trade concerns, the economic outlook, and also a strong outlook for supply growth from OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike. The last few weeks have already seen unusually large speculator selling. So with that in mind, we suspect that oil prices will hold up in the near-term. However, we still see potential for further headwinds later in the year.In our base case scenario, we expect that demand growth will slow down to approximately 0.5 million barrels a day year-on-year by the second half of 2025, and that is down from an an initial estimate earlier in the year when were still forecasting about a million barrel a day growth over the same period. Now this slowdown – coupled with an increase in non-OPEC and OPEC supply – could result in an oversupply of the market of about a million barrels a day over the remainder of 2025. Now with that outlook, we believe that Brent prices could eventually drop further down into the low-$60s.That said, let's also consider a more bearish scenario. Oil demand has never grown continuously during recessions. So if tariffs and counter-tariffs tip the economy into recession, oil demand growth could also fall to zero. In such a situation, the surplus we're currently modeling could be substantially larger, possibly north of 1.5 million barrels a day. Now that would require non-OPEC production to slow down more severely to balance the market. In that scenario, we estimate that Brent prices may need to fall into the mid-$50s to create the necessary supply slowdown.On the flip side, there's also a bullish scenario where we and the market are all overestimating the demand impact. If oil demand doesn't slow down as much as we currently expect and OPEC were to revert quite quickly back to managing the supply side again, then inventories would still build but only slowly. Now in that case, Brent could actually return into the low-$70s as well.All in all, we would suspect that the twin headwinds of higher-than-expected trade tariffs and faster-than-expected OPEC+ quota increases will continue to weigh on oil prices in the months ahead. And so we have lowered our demand forecast for the second half of the year to just 0.5 million barrels a day, year-on-year. And we've also lowered our prices forecasts for 2026; we're now calling for $65 a barrel – that's $5 a barrel lower than we were forecasting before.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Preston Pysh: Global Trade Bluff? Macro Market Analysis, Twenty One Capital Launch and The Future of Bitcoin Banks

Coin Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 58:43

Natalie Brunell is joined by Preston Pysh for a wide-ranging conversation on the shifting macroeconomic landscape, the fragility of the global financial system, and why Bitcoin stands out as the long-term solution. The discussion explores trade dynamics, central bank interventions, and how Bitcoin fits into the coming monetary transformation. Topics include: The U.S.'s struggle to onshore manufacturing and reduce dependence on China Why the U.S. may be bluffing in global trade negotiations The precarious state of the dollar and implications for global markets Gold's potential revaluation vs Bitcoin's superior trust model Central banks' power to manipulate liquidity and market pricing The surprising resilience of Bitcoin despite fiat market volatility Home equity tapping and the temporary resilience of consumers The unprecedented breakdown of the bond market and rising yields Jack Mallers' launch of Twenty One Capital and the rise of Bitcoin financial services Why Bitcoin-focused companies could become the banks of the future The accelerating contractions of the fiat system and Bitcoin's role as the escape valve Long-term strategies for building wealth through Bitcoin DCA strategy ---- Coin Stories is brought to you by lead sponsor Genius Group (NYSE American $GNS). Genius is a Bitcoin-first business delivering AI-powered education and acceleration solutions for the future of work: https://www.geniusgroup.ai/coinstories ---- Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com ---- Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) is a publicly-traded leader in Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing. Learn more at www.bitdeer.com ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: Secure your Bitcoin with collaborative custody and set up your inheritance plan with Casa: https://www.casa.io/natalie For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Get 5000 sats when you download using this link and promo code COINSTORIES10: https://www.speed.app/sweepstakes-promocode/ Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie River is where I DCA weekly and buy Bitcoin with the lowest fees in the industry: https://partner.river.com/natalie Safely self-custody your Bitcoin with Coinkite and the ColdCard Wallet. Get 5% off: https://store.coinkite.com/promo/COINSTORIES Earn 2% back in Bitcoin on all your purchases with the Gemini credit card: https://www.gemini.com/natalie Bitcoin 2025 is heading to Las Vegas May 27-29th! Join me for my 4th Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/hodl/event/bitcoin-2025 Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

What Should Investors Expect from Earnings Season?

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 3:56

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how market volatility over the last month will affect equity markets as earnings season begins.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what to expect from Equity markets as we enter the heart of earnings season. It's Monday, April 28th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The S&P 500 tested both the lower and upper ends of our 5000-5500 range last week, reinforcing the notion that we remain in a volatile trading environment. Incrementally positive news on a potential tariff deal with China and hope for a more dovish Fed lifted stocks into the end of the week, and the S&P 500 closed slightly above the upper end of our range. While a modest overshoot of 5500 can persist very short-term, a sustainable break above this level is dependent on developments that have yet to come to fruition. Those include a tariff deal with China that brings down the effective rate materially; a more dovish Fed; 10-year Treasury yields falling below 4 percent without recessionary risks increasing; and a clear rebound in earnings revisions. Bottom line, until we see clear positive shift in one or more of these factors, range trading is likely to continue with risks to the downside given that we are now at the top end of the range. A frequent question we're getting from clients is does the soft data matter for equities or is the market waiting for the hard data to make up its mind in terms of an upside or downside breakout above or below this range? Our view has been consistent that the most important macro data at this stage is from the labor market while the most important micro data are earnings revisions. Equities have already priced a meaningful slowdown in growth relative to expectations. What's not priced is a labor cycle or recession. While this risk has been reduced to some extent given the recent, more dovish tone shift on tariffs from the administration, it's far from extinguished. Until we see clear evidence over multiple months that the labor market remains solid, a recession will likely remain a coin toss. One soft data point to pay attention to this week that could move the market is the April ISM Manufacturing data on May 1st. Recall this series accelerated the August 2024 selloff ahead of a soft July payroll report. The most important takeaway from an equity strategy perspective is to stay up the quality curve. No matter what the hard data says, we remain in a late cycle backdrop where both quality and large cap relative outperformance should continue. While uncertainty remains higher than usual, defensives should continue to do well. However, given their relative outperformance over the past year, it also makes sense to pick spots in high quality cyclicals that have already discounted a material slowdown in both macro conditions and earnings. To be clear, this is not a blanket call on cyclicals; it's a selective, stock-specific one. More specifically, look for quality, cyclical stocks that are more de-risked based on what the stocks are pricing from a forward earnings growth standpoint. See our written research for stock screens. And from a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over international equities at this point as a weaker dollar should benefit U.S. relative earnings revisions, particularly versus Europe and Japan. Furthermore, less volatile earnings growth and a higher quality bias should benefit the U.S. on a relative basis in today's late cycle backdrop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Sifting Through the Trade War Market Trends | Andreas Steno Larsen ft Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 34:39

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to examine the latest news and trends driving global markets. From Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks to the U.S.-China trade war, dollar debasement, and the bitcoin rally, they cover it all.

Andy Levin on Holding the Fed Accountable

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 59:04

Andy Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and longtime advisor to many central banks. Andy returns to the show to discuss his policy brief on holding the Fed accountable for its spending practices. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on April 9th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:50) – Andy's Professional Background (00:02:07) – Overstaffed or Overworked? (00:04:09) – The Fed's Extraordinary Independence (00:10:10) – Inspector Generals and the Fed (00:20:33) – The Fed's Workers and Payroll (00:37:35) – Updates to the Fed's Headquarters (00:48:24) – Other Fed Challenges (00:56:26) – How to Improve the Fed (00:58:24) – Outro

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Crypto Flood Incoming: Bitcoin Inflows Break Records! | Macro Monday

The Wolf Of All Streets

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 61:08

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Larry Lepard as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 Larry Lepard: https://twitter.com/lawrencelepard Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►►CHECK OUT MY LATEST POST ON THE ROUNDTABLE APP

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