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Phong Le is CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and David Bailey is CEO & Chairman of KindlyMD. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation, we discuss Strategy's evolution from a bitcoin holding company to a leveraged treasury and now a digital credit platform, including the launch of its perpetual preferred product designed to offer bitcoin exposure with lower volatility and yield. We also cover capital markets strategy, competition among bitcoin treasury companies, macro impacts, and bitcoin's continued integration into Wall Street and global finance.======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.======================0:00 - Intro0:25 - Strategy's three phases of buying bitcoin7:04 - Bitcoin's graduation into Wall Street & traditional finance10:11 - Macro economy & Fed policy12:01 - Would they ever sell their bitcoin holdings?15:26 - Bitcoin, government policy, & political adoption19:52 - The responsibility of running a public bitcoin company26:35 - The future of bitcoin treasury models & consolidation
Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and U.S. Head of Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss the implications of private credit's exposure to the software industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Head of Credit Strategy. Vishy Tirupattur: While potential disruption from AI has been a key driver for markets [in the] last few weeks, the focus of investor agenda has been in the software sector. On today's podcast, we will talk about software in the credit markets and its implications. It's Monday, March 2nd at 10am in New York. Vishwas, let's start by understanding how the exposure in software manifests in the credit markets. How does it compare to software, say, in the equity market? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so the software exposure in credit markets is large, and understandably that's why investors are closely watching what's happening with software in the equity market. But what's interesting and important for investors to note is the exposure in credit is very different from what it is in equities. So, for instance, a good chunk of exposure in the credit market is around private issuers. So, we estimate about 80 percent of companies are private in the whole sample set that we looked at. And that's largely a function of the fact that software is not a big part of the more liquid spaces like Investment Grade and High Yield. But it is heavily represented in the more opaque parts of the market, like leveraged loans, CLOs, and, you know, BDCs. So, our analysis found that about 25 percent of BDC portfolios are in software, closely followed by private credit CLOs. And leveraged loan market was about 16 percent. So, that's an important distinction to keep in mind versus the equity market. The second thing I would flag is – because the software sector grew a lot in the loan market through the LBO wave of 2020 and 2021, it has a weaker credit quality skew to it than the overall market. So about 50 percent of borrowers in the sector are rated B - or lower. So, that's the lowest rungs of the rating spectrum. Many of these software deals were underwritten with higher leverage than the broad market. And as a result of that you also have more front-loaded maturities in the sector, which brings the risks of refinancing, if some of this disruption persists. But Vishy, that's a nice segue to you. Over the past couple of years, you looked at the private credit market in depth and that's where I think the exposure we found is the highest in BDCs, you know, which is the public face of private credit. So, in your assessment, what is the risk of software to private credit, given all of the headlines that are popping up? Vishy Tirupattur: Public face of private credit – Vishwas, that's a great line. BDCs – business development corporations for those who are not familiar – are companies that invest in the debt of small and medium sized companies, sourced through non-bank channels. BDCs fund themselves through equity and debt issuance. So, if you look at the portfolios of BDCs to look at their exposure to software, there's a wide variation across the various BDC portfolios. What makes the assessment of these software risks in BDCs challenging is that many of these companies are private companies without the reporting obligations of public companies. So, no earnings reports, no 10-Ks or cues or broadly publicly available financials look at. So, in effect, these companies need to be re underwritten to evaluate which of these companies would be disrupted from AI; and which companies could actually benefit from AI and see their margins expand. So, in the context of BDCs, liability spreads are something we are watching closely. BDC liability spreads have widened but we think more needs to happen there. The clearing levels need to wait for the full resolution of the companies that benefit and that get hurt by disruption that is still awaited. So, we expect credit spreads of BDCs to remain volatile for some time to come. Vishwas Patkar: Okay. So, seems like this is a significant, or at least a non-trivial risk factor for credit markets, given the growth of the sector, leverage, the skew and quality. But Vishy, do you think this could be systemic for risk markets at large? Vishy Tirupattur: So, I do think that this is a significant risk, but I don't think it's a systemic risk. The amount of leverage in BDC is fairly small. About 2x is the kind of leverage. You compare that to the kind of leverage that existed in the financial system before the financial crisis – that's orders of magnitude smaller risk. And also the linkage to the banking system comes through the back leverage provided to the non-bank lenders. But this leverage is substantially risk remote with very high subordination levels. So, my conclusion here is this is a significant risk but not a systemic risk. So let me turn the same question to you, Vishwas. Taking on a sort of historical perspective as well as a macro perspective, how do you see this risk manifesting in the broader credit space? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I would agree with you Vishy, that we need to see a valuation reset. We think spreads should go wider because of disruption concerns, even if they affect a relatively narrow part of the market. But a lot of that's happening against issuance that's rising. But I would say the risk of systemic concerns really emerging is relatively low. if you look at historical cycles where credit has been the weak link in the economy, those are typically characterized by a lot of corporate re-leveraging. So, think about the late 1990s or from 2004 to 2007 or the early 2000-teens. These are all cycles where corporates were being very aggressive, adding a lot of debt. And you know, when the economy slowed, credit became the source of some default and downgrade concerns. We haven't really seen that type of credit cycle play out at all in the past few years. If you look at corporate debt to GDP, for example, it's gone down each of the last five years. Balance sheet corporate leverage has been flat or actually gone lower in spots. M&A activity, which is usually a good indicator of corporate aggressiveness, still remains below trend. So, I think we have had a fairly restrained credit cycle where in place fundamentals are quite strong. And that's why I think the systemic contagion from any credit spread weakness, I think could be relatively muted. Vishy Tirupattur: So, the key takeaway from us is that software and credit is a significant risk but is not quite systemic risk. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
The Law School Toolbox Podcast: Tools for Law Students from 1L to the Bar Exam, and Beyond
Welcome back to the Law School Toolbox podcast! In a two-part episode, we discuss how organization is what makes legal writing usable and trustworthy -- allowing judges, supervisors, and clients to follow your reasoning and accept your conclusions. Together with Legal Writing professor and Law School Toolbox tutor Mary Fran Richardson, we cover five essential tips for keeping your legal writing clean and well organized. In this episode we discuss: How thinking like a reader helps your writing The starting point: Audience and purpose The characteristics of the most effective legal writing AI and legal writing: Why you still need your own voice Macro and micro organization of legal writing Remember to follow the directions! Resources: Tutoring for Law School Success (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/tutoring-for-law-school-success/) Podcast Episode 489: A Legal Writing Makeover (Part 1 – The Issue Statement) (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/podcast-episode-489-a-legal-writing-makeover-part-1-the-issue-statement/) Podcast Episode 490: A Legal Writing Makeover (Part 2 – The Rule Statement) (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/podcast-episode-490-a-legal-writing-makeover-part-2-the-rule-statement/) Podcast Episode 491: A Legal Writing Makeover (Part 3 – The Analysis Section) (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/podcast-episode-491-a-legal-writing-makeover-part-3-the-analysis-section/) Podcast Episode 493: A Legal Writing Makeover (Part 4 – The Conclusion) (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/podcast-episode-493-a-legal-writing-makeover-part-4-the-conclusion/) Mastering Legal Writing (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/mastering-legal-writing/) Three Cs of Legal Writing…And One T (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/three-cs-of-legal-writingand-one-t/) Demoralizing Feedback? Look at What You Did Right (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/demoralizing-feedback-look-at-what-you-did-right/) Using IRAC on Law School Exams (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/using-irac-on-law-school-exams/) Legal Writing Tip: Imagine You're Talking to Your Grandma (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/legal-writing-tip-imagine-youre-talking-to-your-grandma/) Download the Transcript (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/episode-545-5-tips-for-keeping-your-legal-writing-organized-part-1/) If you enjoy the podcast, we'd love a nice review and/or rating on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/law-school-toolbox-podcast/id1027603976) or your favorite listening app. And feel free to reach out to us directly. You can always reach us via the contact form on the Law School Toolbox website (http://lawschooltoolbox.com/contact). If you're concerned about the bar exam, check out our sister site, the Bar Exam Toolbox (http://barexamtoolbox.com/). You can also sign up for our weekly podcast newsletter (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/get-law-school-podcast-updates/) to make sure you never miss an episode! Thanks for listening! Alison & Lee
The team at Freedom Farmers has helped over 6,000 farms and compounds come to life over the past decade. They analyze real estate all over the United States and Canada to find amazing properties that buyers are looking for, while also helping clients skip potential headaches.Curtis Stone has put the “freedom” in Freedom Farmers while he built a life that stands up to the challenges of nature in its many forms. His courses on growing microgreens and starting mini farms are essential for anyone thinking of packing up and moving to the country.—Guest LinksCurtis Stone | Freedom Farmers—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
Dan Tapiero is the Founder & CEO of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, and Robbie Mitchnick is Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation, we discuss the explosive growth of the spot Bitcoin ETF, how institutions now view Bitcoin within asset allocation, the impact of macro and Fed policy on crypto markets, and why traditional finance and digital assets are rapidly converging.===================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you'll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp===================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.===================0:00 - Intro0:23 – Why the Bitcoin ETF was so successful & institutions enter4:38 - Building beyond the Bitcoin ETF8:03 - The bridge between TradFi & crypto13:43 - How institutions think about allocations17:40 - Macro, the Fed & liquidity impact on bitcoin22:22 - Partnerships & building in digital assets
We have to discuss America's current set of priorities. They are nothing short of treasonous, with these crimes going all the way up to the highest levels of government being controlled by the people behind the Joe Biden regime. This group includes three members of the Trilateral Commission who have rotated in, and are currently rigging the detonators to take down the country.The blatant targeting of a political rival sounds like the type of tactic the media would have you believe Trump would use against his perceived enemies, but it is, in fact, Joe Biden who is using his weaponized Justice Department to imprison his political rival during an election year, while lawfaring him to death in multiple nonsensical lawsuits, and trying to get him thrown off the ballot in various states.Turning Donald Trump into a victim is an almost impossible task, and yet the Mainstream Media and the corrupt Democratic Party have managed to do it by lying to everybody about the facts surrounding his cases. Now the people can see the corruption for themselves, and it is making them a little more sympathetic to Trump's fight against this criminal cartel seeking to keep him out of office at all costs.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comAnarchapulco: https://Anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
Our Deputy Head of Global Research Michael Zezas and Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, discuss how the U.S. is positioning AI as a pillar of geopolitical influence and what that means for nations and investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Head of Global Research.Stephen Byrd: And I'm Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.Michael Zezas: Today – is AI becoming the new anchor of geopolitical power?It's Wednesday, February 27th at noon in New York.So, Stephen, at the recent India AI Impact Summit, the U.S. laid out a vision to promote global AI adoption built around what it calls “real AI sovereignty.” Or strategic autonomy through integration with the American AI stack. But several nations from the global south and possibly parts of Europe – they appear skeptical of dependence on proprietary systems, citing concerns about control, explainability, and data ownership. And it appears that stake isn't just technology policy. It's the future structure of global power, economic stratification, and whether sovereign nations can realistically build competitive alternatives outside the U.S. and China.So, Stephen, you were there and you've been describing a growing chasm in the AI world in terms of access to strategies between the U.S. and much of the global south, and possibly Europe. So, from what you heard at the summit, what are the core points of disagreement driving that divide?Stephen Byrd: There definitely are areas of agreement; and we've seen a couple of high-profile agreements reached between the U.S. government and the Indian government just in the last several days. So there certainly is a lot of overlap. I point to the Pax Silica agreement that's so important to secure supply chains, to secure access to AI technology. I think the focus, for example, for India is, as you said; it is, you know, explainability, open access. I was really struck by Prime Minister Modi's focus on ensuring that all Indians have access to AI tools that can help them in their everyday life.You know, a really tangible example that really stuck with me is – someone in a remote village in India who has a medical condition and there's no doctor or nurse nearby using AI to, you know, take a photo of the condition, receive diagnosis, receive support, figure out what the next steps should be. That's very powerful. So, I'd say, open access explainability is very important.Now, the American hyperscalers are very much trying to serve the Indian market and serve the objectives really of the Indian government. And so, there are versions of their models that are open weights, that are being made freely available for health agencies in India, as an example; to the Indian government, as an example.So, there is an attempt to really serve a number of objectives, but I think this key is around open access, explainability, that I do see that there's a tension.Michael Zezas: So, let's talk about that a little bit more. Because it seems one of the concerns raised is this idea of being captive within proprietary Large Language Models. And maybe that includes the risk of having to pay more over time or losing control of citizen data. But, at the same time, you've described that there are some real benefits to AI that these countries want to adopt.So, what is effectively the tension between being captive to a model or the trade off instead for pursuing open and free models? Is it that there's a major quality difference? And is that trade off acceptable?Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so fascinating, Mike, is, you know, what we need to be thinking about is not just where the technology is today, but where is it in six months, 12 months, 24 months? And from my perspective, it's very clear. That the proprietary American models are going to be much, much more capable.So, let's put some numbers around that. The big five American firms have assembled about 10 times the compute to train their current LLMs compared to their prior LLMs, and that's a big deal. If the scaling laws hold, then a 10x increase in training compute to result in models are about twice as capable.Now just let that sink in for a minute, twice as capable from here. That's a big deal. And so, when we think about the benefit of deploying these models, whether it's in the life sciences or any number of other disciplines, those benefits could start to get very large. And the challenge for the open models will be – will they be able to keep up in terms of access to compute, to training, access to data to train those models? That's a big question.Now, again, there's room for both approaches and it's very possible for the Indian government to continue to experiment and really see which approach is going to serve their citizens the best. And I was really struck by just how focused the Indian government is on serving all of their citizens. Most notably, you know, the poorest of the poor in their nation. So, we'll just have to see.But the pure technologist would say that these proprietary models are going to be increasing capability much faster than the open-source models.So, Mike, let's pivot from the technology layer to the geopolitical layer because the U.S. strategy unveiled at the summit goes way beyond innovation.Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's a good point. And within this discussion of whether or not other countries will choose to pursue open models or more closely adhere to U.S. based models is really a question about how the United States exercises power globally and how it creates alliances going forward.Clearly some part of the strategy is that the U.S. assumes that if it has technology that's alluring to its partners, that they'll want to align with the U.S.' broad goals globally. And that they'll want to be partners in supporting those goals, which of course are tied to AI development.So, the Pax Silica [agreement], which you mentioned earlier, is an interesting point here because this is clearly part of the U.S. strategy to develop relationships with other countries – such that the other countries get access to U.S. models and access to U.S. AI in general. And what the U.S. gets in return is access to supply chain, critical resources, labor, all the things that you need to further the AI build out. Particularly as the U.S. is trying to disassociate more and more from China, and the resources that China might have been able to bring to bear in an AI build out.Stephen Byrd: So, Mike, the U.S. framed “real AI sovereignty” as strategic autonomy rather than full self-sufficiency. So, essentially the. U.S. is encouraging nations to integrate components of the American AI stack. Now, from your perspective, Mike, from a macro and policy standpoint, how significant is that distinction?Michael Zezas: Well, I think it's extremely important. And clearly the U.S. views its AI strategy as not just economic strategy, but national security strategy.There are maybe some analogs to how the U.S. has been able to, over the past 80 years or so, use its dominance in military and military equipment to create a security umbrella that other countries want to be under. And do something similar with AI, which is if there is dominant technology and others want access to it for the societal or economic benefits, then that is going to help when you're negotiating with those countries on other things that you value – whether it be trade policy, foreign policy, sanctions versus another country. That type of thing.So, in a lot of ways, it seems like the U.S. is talking about AI and developing AI as an anchor asset to its power, in a way that military power has been that anchor asset for much of the post World War II period.Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so interesting, Mike, [be]cause you've highlighted before to me that you believe AI could replace weaponry as really the anchor asset for U.S. global power. Almost a tech equivalent of a defense umbrella.So how durable is that strategy, especially given that some countries are expressing unease about dependency?Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's really hard to know, and I think the tension you and I talked about earlier, Stephen, about whether countries will be willing to make the trade off for access to superior AI models versus open and free models that might be inferior, that'll tell us if this is a viable strategy or not. And it appears like this is still playing out because, correct me if I'm wrong, it's not like we've received some very clear signals from India or other countries about their willingness to make that trade off.Stephen Byrd: No, I think that's right. And just building on the concept of the trade-offs and, sort of, the standard for AI deployment, you know, the U.S. has explicitly rejected centralized global AI governance in favor of national control aligned with domestic values.So, what does that signal about how global technology standards may evolve, particularly as in the U.S., the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, works to develop interoperable standards for agentic AI systems.Michael Zezas: Yeah, Stephen, I think it's hard to know. It might be that the U.S. is okay with other countries having substantial degrees of freedom with how they use U.S.-based AI models because they could use U.S. law to, at a later date, change how those models are being used – if there's a use case that comes out of it that they find is against U.S. values. Similar in some way to how the U.S. dollar being the predominant currency and, therefore, being the predominant payment system globally, gives the U.S. degrees of freedom to impose sanctions and limit other types of economic transactions when it's in the U.S. interest.So, I don't know that to be specifically true, but it's an interesting question to consider and a potential motivation behind why a laissez-faire approach might be, ultimately, still aligned with U.S. interests.Stephen Byrd: So, Michael, it sounds like really AI is becoming the new strategic infrastructure globally.Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's actually a great way to think about it. And so, Stephen, if that were the case, and we're talking about the potential for this to shape geopolitical competition, potentially economic differentials across the globe. And if that is correlated, at least, to some degree with the further development and computing power of these models, what do you think investors should be looking at for signals from here?Stephen Byrd: Number one, by a mile for me, is really the pace of model progress. Not just American models, but Chinese models, open-source models. And there the big reveal for the United States should be somewhere between April and June – for the big five LLM players. That's a bit of speculation based on tracking their chip purchases, their power access, et cetera. But that appears to be the timeframe and a couple of execs have spoken to that approximate timeframe.I would caution investors that I think we're going to be surprised in terms of just how powerful those models are. And we're already seeing in early 2026, these models that were not trained on that kind of volume of compute have really exceeded expectations, you know, quite dramatically in some cases. And I'll give you one example.METR is a third-party that tracks the complexity, what these models can do. And METR has been highlining that every seven months, the complexity of what these models are able to do approximately doubles. It's very fast. But what really got my attention was about a week ago, one of the LLMs broke that trend in a big way to the upside.So, if the scaling laws would hold, based on what METR would've expected, they would expect a model to be able to act independently for about eight hours, a little over eight hours. And what we saw was, the best American model that was recently introduced was more like 15. That's a big deal. And so, I think we're seeing signs of non-linear improvement.We're also going to see additional statements from these AI execs around recursive self-improvement of the models. One ex-AI executive spoke to that. Another LLM exec spoke to that recently as well. So, we're starting to see an acceleration. That means we then need to really consider the trade-offs between the open models and the proprietary. That's going to become really critical and that should happen really through the spring and summer.Michael Zezas: Got it. Well, Stephen, thanks for taking the time to talk.Stephen Byrd: Great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Top Headlines: Group-IB | Operation Olalampo: Inside MuddyWater's Latest Campaign: https://www.group-ib.com/blog/muddywater-operation-olalampo/ Point Wild | Remcos Revisited: Inside the RAT's Evolving Command-and-Control Techniques: https://www.pointwild.com/threat-intelligence/remcos-revisited-inside-the-rats-evolving-command-and-control-techniques/ Lab 52 | Operation MacroMaze: new APT28 campaign using basic tooling and legit infrastructure: https://lab52.io/blog/operation-macromaze-new-apt28-campaign-using-basic-tooling-and-legit-infrastructure/ therecord.media | Researchers warn Volt Typhoon still embedded in US utilities and some breaches may never be found: https://therecord.media/researchers-warn-volt-typhoon-still-active-critical-infrastructure?&web_view=true ----------Stay in Touch!Twitter: https://twitter.com/Intel471IncLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/intel-471/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIL4ElcM6oLd3n36hM4_wkgDiscord: https://discord.gg/DR4mcW4zBrFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/Intel471Inc/
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U.S. Economist Matt Bush and Market Strategist Maria Giraldo join the latest episode of Macro Markets to discuss insights from our new white paper, “AI's Promise and History's Lessons.” They explore how artificial intelligence is driving innovation and long-term productivity gains, even as it creates short-term disruptions in labor markets and deepens economic divides. Learn how investors can position for the challenges and opportunities ahead.Related Content:AI's Promise and History's Lessons Our new paper addresses the economic and market implications of AI in the context of investment opportunities across infrastructure, equity, and credit markets. [Read Now]Macro Markets: Fixed Income Outlook: Sunny with a Chance of Tail Risks Steve Brown, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, joins Macro Markets to review current market conditions for bonds and discuss our economic outlook and portfolio strategy for the coming year.[Listen Now] First Quarter 2026 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsOur investment team evaluates sectors across the fixed-income market.[Read Now]Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Private debt investments are generally considered illiquid and not quoted on any exchange; thus they are difficult to value. The process of valuing investments for which reliable market quotations are not available is based on inherent uncertainties and may not be accurate. Further, the level of discretion used by an investment manager to value private debt securities could lead to conflicts of interest.This material is distributed for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.© 2026 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.SP 67841
Ce vendredi 27 février, Raphaël Legendre a reçu Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, économiste chez Rexecode, Philippe Mutricy, directeur des études de Bpifrance, et Thomas Grjebine, responsable du programme Macroéconomie et finance internationales au CEPII, dans l'émission Les Experts sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.
Ce vendredi 27 février, l'impossible effort budgétaire qui attend le gouvernement en 2027 pour ramener le déficit public sous la barre des 3% du PIB, conformément aux engagements européens, et le bilan de la visite de Friedrich Merz en Chine ont été abordés par Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, économiste chez Rexecode, Philippe Mutricy, directeur des études de Bpifrance, et Thomas Grjebine, responsable du programme Macroéconomie et finance internationales au CEPII, dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.
Ce vendredi 27 février, les chiffres de la croissance du quatrième trimestre de l'année 2025 publiés par l'lnsee, le pouvoir d'achat des Français, ainsi que le bilan des résultats annuels 2025 du CAC 40, ont été abordés par Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, économiste chez Rexecode, Philippe Mutricy, directeur des études de Bpifrance, et Thomas Grjebine, responsable du programme Macroéconomie et finance internationales au CEPII, dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jeff Currie. They'll discuss the commodity bull market, why metals are outperforming almost everything else, energy demand from AI and data centers, China stockpiling commodities, and much more. https://bit.ly/40imDo9
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the geopolitical drivers behind the recent spike in oil prices and outlines four Iran scenarios.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist.Today – what's fueling the latest oil market rally.It's Thursday, February 26th, at 3pm in London.What happens when oil prices jump, even though there's no actual shortage of oil? That's the situation we're in right now. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Naturally, markets are paying attention.Over the past week, Brent crude rose about $3 to around $72 per barrel. WTI climbed into the mid-$60s. Shipping costs surged. And traders have started paying a premium for protection against a sudden oil spike – the levels we haven't seen since the early days of the Ukrainian invasion.But here's the key point: there's no clear evidence that global oil supply has tightened. Exports are still flowing. Tankers are still moving. And some near-term indicators of physical tightness have actually softened. When oil is truly scarce, buyers scramble for immediate barrels and short-term prices spike relative to future delivery. Instead, those spreads have narrowed, and physical premiums have eased.This isn't a supply shock. It's a risk premium. In simple terms, investors are buying insurance. So what could happen next? We see four broad scenarios.Before I outline them though, here's something we do not see as a core case: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and another 5 million of refined product moves through that corridor. A sustained shutdown would be enormously disruptive. But we think the probability is very low.Now coming back to our four scenarios. The first is straightforward. A negotiated settlement; conflict is avoided. Iranian exports continue and shipping lanes remain open. In that scenario, what unwinds is the geopolitical risk premium – which we estimate at roughly $7 to $9 per barrel. If that fades, Brent could drift back to the low-to-mid $60s, similar to past episodes where prices spiked on fear and then retraced once supply proves unaffected.Second, we could see short-lived frictions – shipping delays, higher insurance costs, temporary logistical issues. That might remove a few hundred thousand barrels per day for, say, a few weeks.. Prices could briefly spike into the $75–80 range. But balancing forces would kick in relatively quickly. For example, China has been building inventories at a steady pace. At higher prices, that stockbuilding would likely slow, helping offset temporary disruptions. That points to some further upside in prices – but then normalization.The third scenario is more serious, but still contained: localized export losses of perhaps 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day for a month or two. Prices would stay elevated longer, but spare capacity and demand adjustments could eventually stabilize the market.Now our last scenario is the more serious and considers a potential shipping shock. The real risk here isn't wells shutting down – it's shipping disruption. Global trade of crude oil depends on efficient tanker movement. If transit times were extended even modestly, effective shipping capacity could fall sharply, creating what amounts to a temporary tightening of about 2 to 3 million barrels per day – or about 6 percent of global seaborne supply. That is a logistics shock, not a production outage – but it would push prices toward early-2022-type levels, at least briefly.Now let's zoom out. Beyond geopolitics, the fundamentals look weak. OPEC+ supply is rising, and our forecasts show a sizable surplus building in 2026. Even if some of that oil ends up in China's stockpiles, a lot would still likely flow into core OECD inventories. Historically, when the market looks like this, prices tend to fall, not rise.Which brings us back to the central point. Oil isn't rallying because the world has run out of barrels. It's rallying because markets are pricing geopolitical risk. And unless that risk turns into actual, sustained disruption, insurance premiums tend to expire.Thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.This podcast references jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.
Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Is the global economy stronger than it looks or more fragile beneath the surface? If you're trying to reconcile booming markets with rising geopolitical risk, this week's episode brings an important perspective.I sat down with Chris Zhang, Partner & CIO of Ascend Interplay, to break down the real forces shaping 2026:How AI is shifting from a narrative to a measurable economic impactWhy labor markets may determine where we go nextGlobal structural shifts that are underway - from escalating Middle East tensions to the rise of protectionism - and what they imply for supply chains, inflation dynamics, and U.S. debt sustainability.Big thanks to Chris for a thoughtful, data-driven discussion.⏱️ Chapter Markers00:00 – Welcome & Why 2025 Defied Gravity02:00 – Global GDP Surprise & Market Performance03:30 – The Structural Bull Market in Gold & Silver07:45 – When Would Gold Actually Fall?10:00 – 2026 Outlook: Cautiously Constructive11:45 – AI's Real Impact on Productivity & Labor14:30 – Middle East Conflict & Oil Markets17:15 – Are Trade Wars Really Over?19:30 – Structural Protectionism & Supply Chains22:00 – The Americas Strategy & Regional Integration26:30 – U.S. Debt: Is There a Real Solution?29:45 – The Fed, Growth & Kevin Warsh's Role32:45 – Final Takeaways for 2026Links:Chris Zhang: LinkedInInterplay: Website, LinkedIn, TwitterMPD: LinkedIn, Twitter
The cadence of announcements about housing affordability and deregulation may accelerate into the midterm elections in November, Bloomberg Intelligence chief MBS strategist Erica Adelberg says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg joins host Ira Jersey, BI's chief US rates strategist, to discuss key takeaways from the Structured Finance Association's conference held Feb. 22-25 in Las Vegas. They explore GSE reforms, regulatory changes, shifts in credit scoring used while processing mortgage applications and the use of AI in the mortgage process. They also cover the talk around the health of the economy and why few expect a recession in the foreseeable future. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.
The fear-mongers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies were busy in 2005 running a tabletop exercise featuring a simulated global Avian influenza outbreak and its impact on Wall Street. It only took 15 years for their vision of a global economic shutdown to come true. The team behind Event 201, Dark Winter, Catastrophic Contagion, Clade-X, and Atlantic Storm was brought in to advise the big banks and insurance companies on how to prepare for the impending event.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
Returns are no longer just a headache, they're a strategic opportunity. As the circular economy gains momentum, reverse logistics is quickly becoming one of the most important levers in modern supply chains.In this episode of Supply Chain Now, Scott W. Luton and Deborah Dull are joined by Scot Case, Vice President of Sustainability at the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Tony Sciarrotta, Senior Director of Reverse Logistics and Circularity at NRF, to share key insights from the NRF Rev event and discuss why reverse logistics deserves a seat at the strategy table.The conversation explores how resale, repair, and recycling are moving into the mainstream, and why returns should no longer be treated as a cost center. From the surge in e-commerce returns to increasing legislative pressure through extended producer responsibility, the group breaks down how these forces are changing retail and supply chain operations.Deborah adds perspective on how technology improves visibility and accountability across the returns process. Together, the guests outline practical ways companies can turn reverse logistics into a competitive advantage while improving customer experience and advancing sustainability goals.Jump into the conversation:(00:00) Intro(02:31) Meet the guests: Scot Case and Tony Sciarrotta(06:31) NRF's sustainability mission: Business value meets reverse logistics(10:46) RLA + NRF: Bringing returns out of the “dark side”(15:22) Macro trends shaping reverse logistics: Reuse, resale, repair & more(20:40) Tariffs, EPR laws & the circular economy's next push(24:52) Inside NRF Rev: The reverse logistics & revenue “revolution” event(26:05) NRF Rev: Bringing reverse logistics into the spotlight(27:32) Why retailers are the center of the returns universe(28:18) Refurbished products mindset shift: The ‘restaurant fork' story(29:24) Deborah's practitioner lens: Why this conference matters(31:00) Key takeaways: Collaboration, EPR, and no single silver bullet(34:04) Urban mining & the resale economy (and why brands must engage)(36:32) What's next: NRF working groups, global scale, and policy influence(40:16) Remade in America: A story-driven podcast on ‘where returns go'Additional Links & Resources:Connect with Scot Case: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scotcase/Connect with Tony Sciarrotta: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-sciarrotta-235570/Connect with Deborah Dull: https://www.linkedin.com/in/deborahdull/Learn more about the National Retail Federation (NRF): https://nrf.comLearn more about NRF Rev:
In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim interviewed Bob Sheehan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Lighthouse Macro. They discussed Bob's background, employment, inflation, growth and consumer demand. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT– is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Matt LueckShow Editing and Production: Matt LueckDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says money managers are moving from the market's racehorses to its sure-footed burros, saying it's a sign of "the very late stages of an up move or the beginning stages of the market starting to roll over." Kosar says the market has some room to correct and stay in bull market territory, but he thinks investors want to be cautious here until the rotation is complete. "I'm not saying doom and gloom and we';re done for the year," Kosar says, "but if you want to put on more risk ... this is a lousy place to do it." He's expecting a 5 to 7 percent move down, at which point the market will be much more attractive. In the Market Call, deep-value investor Michael Campagna, co-founder and senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, discusses how the high levels of domestic stocks have him more interested in international investments, but he is finding plenty of opportunities around the globe,including, surprisingly, some that are derivative plays from the artificial-intelligence boom. Plus, Chuck discusses the parts of Tuesday's State of the Union address that had him scratching his head about math and political processes, and digs into statements that were made about inflation, tariffs, Social Security, the level of promised foreign investments into the United States, the scope of fraud in government programs and more.
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
Als het aan de coalitie ligt, gaat werkend Nederland meer belasting betalen, langer doorwerken en krijgen mensen minder geld bij baanverlies of arbeidsongeschiktheid. Dat is ten minste wat het FNV vorige week opviel aan de doorrekeningen van het Centraal Planbureau (CPB). De vakbond dreigt met acties, stakingen en een vol Malieveld als het kabinet voet bij stuk houdt. Tegelijkertijd wordt FNV nog steeds geleid door een interim bestuur nadat er onrust was ontstaan binnen de vakbond. In hoeverre is FNV in staat om strijd te voeren, terwijl intern nog een cassatieprocedure loopt? Dick Koerselman interim-voorzitter van vakbond FNV is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggerspanel Beleggers dachten opgelucht te kunnen ademhalen na het oordeel van het Amerikaanse hooggerechtshof over de importheffingen, maar die vreugde was van korte duur. En: Nvidia komt morgen met langverwachte kwartaalcijfers. Dat en meer bespreken we in het beleggerspanel. Luister | Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Miramos a la macro del día y echamos también un vistazo al mercado de divisas. Con Olivia Álvarez, analista de Afi.
The Supreme Court's latest ruling on tariffs has thrown existing trade agreements into uncertainty. Our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore and Arunima Sinha, from the U.S and Global Economics teams break down the fallout.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Arunima Sinha: And I am Arunima Sinha on the U.S. and Global Economics teams. Ariana Salvatore: Today we'll be talking about the recent Supreme Court decision on tariffs, what it means for existing trade deals, and where trade policy is headed from here. It's Monday, February 23rd at 9am in New York. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the president could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose broad-based tariffs. The ruling didn't give a clear signal on what it could mean for potential refunds, but the Trump administration said it plans to replace the existing tariffs, which is something that we'd long expected – first leveraging Section 122 to impose 15 percent tariffs for 150 days. The president is simultaneously going to launch a few new Section 301 investigations to eventually replace those Section 122 tariffs, since they're only allowed to be in place temporarily. So Arunima, let's start by breaking down some of this tariff math. What does this mean for the headline and effective rate given where we are now versus before? Arunima Sinha: Before the decision, Ariana, we were at a headline tariff rate of about 13 percent. What this decision does is that with the move, especially to 15 percent, for other countries, we think that it takes about a percentage point off of the headline tariff rate. So, we would go to about 12 percent, and then we have another percentage point coming off just because of the shifts in trade patterns. And so instead of a headline tariff rate of about 13 percent, we think that we're going to be at a headline tariff of just about 11 percent. But that's really just related to the Section 122s. And as you noted, this is only going to apply for the next 150 days. So how should we be thinking about trade policy going forward? Ariana Salvatore: I think we should view the 15 percent as probably a likely ceiling for these rates in the medium term; in particular because this 150-day period expires some time around the summer, so even closer to the midterm elections. And as we've been saying politically speaking, it's unpopular to impose high levels of tariffs. We've also been saying that the president will continue to lean on trade policy as his real, only way to address the affordability issue for voters, which is something that we've actually seen on the policy side for the past few months with the imposition of exemptions, more trade framework agreements, et cetera.So really, I think this is just another way for him to continue leaning on this policy avenue. But in that vein, let's talk about specific pockets of relief. What are we thinking about some of their findings on a sector level? Arunima Sinha: So, let's tie this into the affordability aspect that you mentioned, Ariana, and specifically using the consumer goods sector. What we think is that with, just in the near-term period, with the Section 122s applying, for different consumer goods categories, we could see tariff rate differentials go down. So, they could be anywhere between 1 to 4 percentage points lower across different categories. But what we also think could happen is that once we get beyond the 150-day period, and there are no additional sector tariffs that go on. So, the 232s or the 301s, particularly for this particular sector, we could see some of the largest tariff relief that we're expecting to see. So, for example, apparel and accessories could see something like a 16 to 17 percentage point tariff drop. So that particular part I think is important. Just the upside risks to consumer goods. But that of course brings us to the question of bilateral trade deals and how they come into play. What do you think about that, Ariana? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. So, I think when it comes to the bilateral deals, as we mentioned, there's some opportunities for relief depending on the sectors and the type of tariff exposure by country. As you mentioned, the consumer goods are a good example of this. So, in general, I think that trading partners will have little incentive to abandon the existing deals or framework agreements, just given that the president and the administration have messaged this idea of continuity. So, replacing the IEEPA tariffs with a more durable, legitimate, legal authority. But what's notable is that many of our trading partners are actually now facing potentially even lower levels than they were before. Even with the increase to 15 percent on the 122s from 10 percent over the weekend. In particular, many countries in Southeast Asia are actually now facing lower tariff levels since there were somewhere in the range of 20 or maybe even 25 percent before. But as I mentioned, the export composition of these countries matters a lot. So, Vietnam, for example, most exports are subject to the 20 percent tariff because of the IEEPA exposure. This ruling is more meaningful than somewhere like South Korea, where the exports are more exposed to the Section 232 tariffs. Based on the export composition – and that's a level, remember, that's not changing as a result of this ruling. So that's how we're trying to disaggregate the impact here. Now, my last question to you, Arunima, what does this all mean for the macro-outlook? As we mentioned, refunds weren't addressed in this ruling. We've sketched out a few different scenarios, most of which leaned toward a long lead time to eventually paying back the money – if and when the administration is actually, in fact, mandated to do that. But safe to say in the near term that we aren't going to see much action on that front. That probably means status quo. But why don't you put a finer point on what this means for the macroeconomic outlook? Arunima Sinha: That's absolutely right, Ariana, for the very near term and the second quarter, we don't think we're going to be very different from what our baseline expectation is. In the third quarter and in the last part of this year, there could be some upside risks, especially once the timeline on the 122s run out, they're not extended. And the different sector and country investigations take longer to implement. So, there could be some upside risks to demand. Consumer goods, for example. If there were to be some sort of an incremental tailwind to corporate margins that might lead to better labor demand from these companies. There could be additional goods disinflation; that would support just purchasing power. So, both of those things could be some incremental uplift to demand, relative to our baseline outlook. But then the last thing I think just to emphasize from our perspective, is that we do think that there is some sort of a near-term ceiling about how high effective tariff rates can go. We don't think that we're going to be going back to Liberation Day tariff rates in the near-term or even in the latter half of this year. Because if history is any guide, many of these investigations are going to take time and that full implementation may not actually occur before early 2027. Ariana Salvatore: Makes sense. Arunima, thanks for joining. Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me.Ariana Salvatore: And thank you for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Tony Zhang, Blaine Reed and Rich Excell are back and the topic is negativity. There is so much negative sentiment in the markets right now. What is driving it? Is it based on reality or is this a buying opportunity?
Andreas Steno Larsen is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to break down the biggest forces driving markets, from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions to President Trump's global tariff agenda. They also dive into the latest U.S. economic data, shifting rate expectations, and what the gold-to-bitcoin ratio is signaling.
It was a difficult Friday for US President Donald Trump, as the Supreme Court ruled against his tariffs, while GDP in the fourth quarter grew by less than expected and a core measure of inflation rose. But, notes Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, at Investec Wealth & Investment International, Trump has already announced other measures to retain tariffs. Investec Focus Radio SA
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Miramos a la macro del día y echamos también un vistazo al mercado de divisas. Con Rodrigo Floro, analista macroeconómico en CIMD Intermoney.
Hotelsoftwareleverancier Mews haalde in januari een honderden miljoeneninvestering van vooral Zweedse investeerders binnen.Daarmee is het bedrijf een van de weinige Europese techbedrijven die grote investeringen van Europese investeerders binnen sleept. Waarom is dit voor andere bedrijven zo lastig? Matthijs Welle, algemeen directeur van hotelsoftwareleverancier Mews is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Economenpanel De geplande bezuinigingen op sociale zekerheid en zorg zijn niet genoeg om voorgestelde uitgaven van het kabinet te bekostigen, bleek vrijdag uit de doorrekening van het coalitieakkoord door het CPB. En: er gaan stemmen op om de Nederlandse goudreserves weg te halen uit de VS. Is hier sprake van een terechte discussie of paniek om niks? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het economenpanel met: Casper de Vries, Emeritus hoogleraar monetaire economie aan de Erasmus School of Economics en raadslid van de WRR, en Piet Rietman, econoom en oud-bestuurder FNV. Luister l Economenpanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The host of The Rice Report stops by to discuss the precious metals pump & dump, the Bitcoin price suppression, and the Epstein stain on the crypto industry. It feels like the wheels are beginning to fall off the financial markets, with gold and silver screaming to all-time highs. Eric Rice believes America is moving away from “democracy” and towards a technocracy, where the will of the few is all it takes to control the many. Can humanity break free from this spell, or have the doors to economic and technological freedom been closed for good?—Guest LinksEric Ricehttps://www.youtube.com/@thericereport—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
The Hulu's series, ‘Murdaugh: Death in the Family' has generated renewed interest in the case. This special release of the original investigative series Laura shared in April 2023 is in addition to recent interviews about the series. Incensed that Maggie had become a footnote in her own murder, Laura began her deep dive that to fix the narrative and deconstruct and decode Alex Murdaugh's behaviour with forensic precision. Registration for spring 2026 Masterclasses is now open here: bit.ly/LRMasterclasses2026 *** Laura continues to unravel the timeline including Murdaugh's significant debt and borrowing, his horrific abuse of power and trust of vulnerable clients and so-called drug addiction. Pamela Pinckney, her son Hakeem Pinckney along with Alania Plyler Spohn and Hannah Plyler turned to Murdaugh at the very worst time in their lives. He used and exploited them, funnelling off money from their legal wins in addition to the money he earned from inflated legal fees and expenses. Laura shares what this behaviour reveals about Murdaugh's psychology and how it relates to the motive for brutally killing Maggie and Paul and staging their murders as a revenge kill for the boat crash. Join Laura as she breaks it all down. #MaggieMurdaugh #PaulMurdaugh #MalloryBeach #HakeemPinckney #AlaniaPlylerSpohn #HannahPlyler #MurdaughMurders #Murder #AlexMurdaugh #MaleViolence #Timeline #CrimeAnalyst #Expert #Analysis #Behaviour #TrueCrime #Podcast #TrueCrimePodcast Clips https://www.facebook.com/HLN/videos/alex-murdaugh-the-south-carolina-attorney-accused-of-arranging-for-a-former-clie/463324845181026/ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11796695/Murdaugh-shamelessly-exploited-quadriplegic-client-hed-cheated-1MILLION-commercial.html https://www.live5news.com/2022/11/14/six-witnesses-take-stand-during-trial-former-bank-executive-connected-murdaugh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWHIsk9nmko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHRknEJ6PRY Sources https://murdaughmurderspodcast.com/ https://www.nbcnews.com/dateline/in-the-news/alex-murdaugh-vowed-help-says-defrauded-rcna54289 https://www.foxnews.com/us/newly-unearthed-alex-murdaugh-commercial-ad-video-allegedly-exploits-former-disabled-client https://www.wjcl.com/article/alex-murdaugh-shooting-911-call/38039450 https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/2023/07/17/after-settlement-whats-next-in-legal-matters-involving-beach-family-updates-murdaugh-sc/70422485007/ 2026 Masterclasses and Crime Analyst Resources and Community Laura offers 2026 Masterclasses- There is still time to register for coercive control February 25, DASH Risk Masterclass March 11 and 12 and DASH Train the Trainer. Register for Masterclasses www.dashriskchecklist.com www.thelaurarichards.com For more insight and knowledge, advocacy and professional development join The Crime Analyst Squad. It's a growing and dynamic community offering expert insight, in-depth conversations, exclusive episodes and videos, and live events: www.Patreon.com/CrimeAnalyst Subscribe to Crime Analyst YouTube: @crimeanalyst Facebook: Crime Analyst Podcast Instagram: @crimeanalyst, @laurarichards999 Threads: @crimeanalyst X (Twitter): @thecrimeanalyst, @laurarichards999 TikTok: @crimeanalystpod Website: www.crime-analyst.com If you found this episode valuable, please consider leaving a five star review wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
It is always a bit funny to think that billionaire industrialists who built their fortunes by tearing apart the Earth to extract its resources are now magically somehow devoted environmentalists determined to save the world from the horrors of the life-giving gas known as carbon dioxide.The biggest scam of the 21st century will be the climate change hoax, so get ready because the topic is never going to go away during our lifetimes. The amount of carbon tax money that is available in the future is staggering, and the person leading the charge comes from a very well-known political family that always seems to be around government grifts. Her position inside the United Nations is a signal to the world that the climate scam is moving into a new phase that will require massive amounts of disinformation to hide the truth, as well as a public relations campaign to convince the world that the sky is falling.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comAnarchapulco: https://Anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
Our Head of European Sustainability Research Rachel Fletcher talks about how AI's is quickly reshaping employment and productivity across key industries and regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Rachel Fletcher: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Rachel Fletcher, Head of European Sustainability Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, how AI is shaking up the global job market. It's Friday, February 20th at 2pm in London. You've probably asked yourself when all the excitement around AI is going to move beyond demos and headlines, and start showing up in ways that matter to your job, your investments, and even your day-to-day life. Our latest global AlphaWise AI survey suggests that the turning point may already be unfolding – especially in the labor market where AI is beginning to influence hiring, productivity, and workplace skills. Our survey covered the U.S., UK, Germany, Japan, and Australia, across five sectors where we see a significant AI adoption benefit. Consumer staples, distribution in retail, real estate, transportation, healthcare, equipment and services, and autos. We found that AI contributed to 11 percent of jobs being eliminated over the past 12 months, with another 12 percent not backfilled. These job cuts were partially offset by 18 percent new hires, which results in a net 4 percent global job loss. It's important to note that the survey focused on companies that had already been adopting AI for at least a year. In fact, most of the companies in our survey had been adopting AI for more than two years. So, this is likely the most significant downside case in terms of the impact of AI on jobs, but it is still an early signal of potential job disruption. In Europe, the picture is nuanced. The UK saw the highest net job loss at 8 percent. This was primarily driven by a lower level of new hires in the UK compared to other countries that we surveyed, as well as a high level of positions not backfilled. This compares to Germany, which posted a 4 percent net job loss in line with the all-country average. There could be some other factors amplifying the impact in the UK. For example, broader labor market weakness driven by higher labor costs and higher levels of unemployment amongst younger workers. Ultimately, disentangling AI from macro forces remains challenging. Moving to sector impacts in Europe, autos experience the largest net job loss at 13 percent, and this compares to a 10 percent global average for the sector. It's possible these numbers reflect persistent sales weakness, and AI driven cost cutting. Transportation was least affected at 3 percent, whilst other sectors clustered around 6 to 7 percent. If we look at the top quintile of European companies reducing headcount, they've outperformed other companies that are more actively hiring. This suggests that investors are rewarding efficiency. On the downside, staffing firms face potential growth risks from AI displacement. On productivity, European firms report 10 to 11 percent gains from AI, close to the 11.5 percent global average, and the U.S. at 10.8 percent. It's worth noting that whilst Europe lags the U.S. in exposure to AI enablers, adopters and adopter enablers make up more than two-thirds of the MSCI Europe Index. However, European AI adopters have traded at a material discount versus their equivalent U.S. AI adoption peers. So, turning AI adoption into real ROI and defending pricing power is crucial for European companies. If we shift our focus to the U.S., there's a contrast. Whilst the global net job change was a 4 percent loss, the U.S. actually saw a 2 percent net gain, driven by AI related hiring. Our U.S. strategists have lifted expectations for S&P 500 margin expansion by 40 basis points in 2026 and 60 basis points in 2027. In our survey, the most frequently cited goals of AI deployment in the U.S. are boosting productivity, personalizing customer interactions, and accelerating data insights. Other common use cases include search, content generation, dashboards, and virtual agents. What's becoming clear is AI is no longer theoretical. Our survey data suggests that it is reshaping hiring, productivity and margins. The investor question is not whether AI matters, but who captures the value. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every. They dicuss a macro/geopolitics sweep, Warsh, Iran escalation risk and USD stablecoins as economic statecraft https://bit.ly/4apIIH5
Our Global Head of FX and EM Strategy James Lord and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss what's driving the U.S. policy for the dollar and the outlook for other global currencies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. James Lord: Today we're talking about U.S. currency policy and whether recent news on intervention and nominations to the Fed change anything for the outlook of the dollar. It's Thursday, February 19th at 3pm in London. So it's been an interesting few weeks in currency markets. Plenty of dollar selling going on But then, we got news that Kevin Warsh is going to be nominated to Chair of the Board of Governors. And that sent the dollar back higher, reminding everybody that monetary policy and central bank policy still matter. So, in the aftermath of the dollar-yen rate check, investors started to discuss whether or not the U.S. might be starting to target a weaker currency. Not just be comfortable with a weaker currency, but actually explicitly target a weaker currency, which would presumably be a shift away from the stronger strong dollar policy that Secretary Bessent referenced. So, what is your understanding? What do you think the strong dollar policy actually means? Seth Carpenter: Strong dollar policy, that's a phrase, that's a term; it's a concept that lots of Secretaries of the Treasury have used for a long time. And I specifically point to the Secretary of the Treasury because at least in the recent couple of decades, there has been in standard Washington D.C. approach to things, a strong dichotomy that currency policy is the policy of the Treasury Department, not of the central bank. And that's always been important. I remember when I was working at the Treasury Department, that was still part of the talking points that the secretary used. However, you also hear Secretaries of the Treasury say that exchange rates should be market determined; that that's a key part of it. And with the back and forth between the U.S. and China, for example, there was a lot of discussion: Was the Chinese government adjusting or manipulating the value of their currency? And there was a push that currencies should be market determined. And so, if you think about those two things, at the same time – pushing really hard that the dollar should be strong, pushing really hard that currencies should be market determined – you start to very quickly run into a bit of an intellectual tension. And I think all of that is pretty intentional. What does it mean? It means that there's no single clear definition of strong dollar policy. It's a little bit of the eye of the beholder. It's an acknowledgement that the dollar plays a clear key role in global markets, and it's good for the U.S. for that to happen. That's traditionally been what it means. But it has not meant a specific number relative to any other currency or any basket of currency. It has not meant a specific value based on some sort of long run theoretical fair value. It is always meant to be a very vague, deliberately so, very vague concept. James Lord: So, in that version of what the strong dollar policy means, presumably the sort of ambiguity still leaves space for the Treasury to conduct some kind of intervention in dollar-yen, if they wanted to. And that would still be very much consistent with that definition of the strong dollar policy. I also, in the back of my head, always wonder whether the strong dollar policy has anything to do with the dollar's global role. And the sort of foreign policy power that gives the Treasury in sanctions policy. And other areas where, you know, they can control dollar flows and so on. And that gives the U.S. government some leverage. And that allows them to project strength in foreign policy. Has that anything to do with the traditional versions of the strong policy? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. I think all of that is part and parcel to it. But it also helps to explain a little bit of why there's never going to be a very crisp, specific numerical definition of what a strong dollar policy is.So, first and foremost, I think the discussion of intervention; I think it is, in lots of ways, consistent, especially if you have that more expansive definition of strong dollar, i.e. the currency that's very important, or most important in global financial markets and in global trade. So, I think in that regard, you could have both the intervention and the strong dollar at the same time. I will add though that the administration has not had a clear, consistent view in this regard, in the following very specific sense. When now Governor Myron was chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, he penned a piece on the Council of Economics website that said that the reserve currency status of the dollar had brought with it some adverse effects on the U.S., and in terms of what happened in terms of trade flows and that sort of thing.So again, this administration has also tried to find ways to increase the nuance about what the currency policy is, and putting forward the idea that too strong of a dollar in the FX sense. In the sense that you and your colleagues in FX markets would think about is a high valuation of the dollar relative to other currencies – could have contributed to these trade deficits that they're trying to push back against. So, I would say we went from the previous broad, perhaps vague definition of strong dollar. And now we're in an even murkier regime where there could be other motivations for changing the value of the dollar. Seth Carpenter: So, James, that's been our view in terms of the Fed, but let me come back to you because there are lots of different forces going on at the same time. The central bank is clearly an important one, but it's only one factor among many. So, if you think about where the dollar is likely to go over the next three months, over the next six months, maybe over the next year, what is it that you and your team are looking for? Where are the questions that you're getting from clients? James Lord: Yeah, so when we came into the start of this year, we did have a bearish view on the dollar. I would say that the drivers of it, we'd split up into two components. The first component was a lot more of the conventional stuff about growth expectations, what we see the Fed doing. And then there was another component to it where – what we defined as risk premia, I suppose. The more unconventional catalysts that can push the dollar around, as we saw, come very much to market attention during the second quarter of last year, when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced and the dollar weakened far in excess of what rate differentials would imply. And so, I would say so far this year, the majority of the dollar move that we've seen, the weakening in the dollar that we've seen, has been driven by that second component. What we've kind of called risk premia. And the conversations that, you know, investors have been having about U.S. policy towards Greenland, and then more recently, the conversations that people have been having around FX intervention following the dollar-yen rate check. These sorts of things have been really driving the currency up until , when the Kevin Warsh nomination was announced. When we look at the extent of the risk premia that we see in the dollar now, it is pretty close to the levels that we saw in the second quarter of last year, which is to say it's pretty big. Euro dollar would probably be closer to 1-10, if we were just thinking about the impact of rate differentials and none of this risk premia stuff over the past year had materialized. That's obviously a very big gap. And I think for now that gap probably isn't going to widen much further, particularly now that market attention is much more focused on the impact that Kevin Warsh will have on markets and the dollar. We also have, you know, the ECB and the Bank of England; , house call for those two central banks is for them to be cutting rates. That could also put some downward pressure on those currencies, relative to the dollar. So all of that is to say for some of the major currencies within the G10 space, like sterling, like euro against the dollar, this probably isn't the time to be pushing a weaker dollar. But I think there are some other currencies which still have some opportunity in the short term, but also over the longer run as well. And that's really in emerging markets. So all of that is to say, I think there is a strong monetary policy anchor for emerging market currencies. This is an asset class that has been under invested in for some time. And we do think that there are more gains there in the short term and over the medium term as well. Seth Carpenter: So on that topic, James, would you then agree? So if I think about some of the EM central banks, think about Banxico, think about the BCB – where the dollar falling in value, their currency gaining in value – that could actually have a couple things go on to allow the central bank, maybe to ease more than they would've otherwise. One, in terms of imported inflation, their currency strengthening on a relative basis probably helps with a bit lower inflation. And secondly, a lot of EM central banks have to worry a bit about defending their currency, especially in a volatile geopolitical time. And you were pointing to sort of lower volatility more broadly. So is this a reinforcing trend perhaps, where if the dollar is coming down a little bit, especially against DM currencies, it allows more external stability for those central banks, allowing them to just focus on their domestic mandates, which could also lead to a further reduction in their domestic rates, which might be good for investors. James Lord: Yeah, I think there's something to that. given the strength of emerging market currencies. There should be, over time, more space for them to ease if the domestic conditions warrant it. But so far we're not really seeing many EM central banks taking advantage of that opportunity. There is a sort of general pattern with a lot of EMs that they're staying pretty conservative and more hawkish than I think what markets have generally been expecting, and that's been supporting their currencies. I think it's interesting to think about what would happen if they're on the flip side. What would happen if they did start to push monetary easing at a faster pace? I'm sure on the days where that happens, the currencies would weaken a little bit. However, if the market backdrop is generally constructive on risk, and investors want to have exposure to EM – then what could ultimately happen is that asset managers will simply buy more bonds as they price in a lower path for central bank policy over time. And that causes more capital inflows. And that sort of overwhelms the knee jerk effect from the more dovish stance of monetary policy on the currency. You get more duration flows coming into the market and that helps their currency. So, yes, if EM central banks push back with more dovish policy, significantly, it could pose some short-term volatility. But assuming we remain a low-vol environment globally, I would use those as buying opportunities. Seth Carpenter: Thanks, James. It's been great being on the show with you. Thank you for inviting me, and I hope to be able to come back and join you at some point in the future if you'll have me. James Lord: Thank you, Seth, for making the time to talk. And to all you listening, thank you for lending us your ears. Let us know what you think of this podcast by leaving us a review. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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Lights! Cameras! Arachnids! And lizards and bees and beetles. Macro photography is like magic: curved glass gives an entirely new take on the world, from dust on a cricket's brow to a curious mantid stare to the elegant symmetry of spider whiskers. Joseph Saunders is an Oklahoma-based wildlife photographer whose larger-than-life photos of bugs and reptiles will make you realize just how little we appreciate the creatures on our window sills and skittering up our porches. We talk shop about cameras, bug hunts, lenses, patience, Moth Week, BlackAFinSTEM, and also getting into nature with different mobility concerns. Alie is a shameless, rabid fan of Joseph and asked Patrons to help concoct an -ology to describe the art + science of his macro photography. Aperiology now exists to describe the tiny aperture used to keep these creatures in focus, and the huge world it opens up to us.2023 CALENDARS ARE FOR SALESupport Joseph's photography on PatreonVisit Joseph's website and follow him on Instagram and TwitterA donation went to the American Chronic Pain AssociationFor more links: alieward.com/ologies/aperiologySponsors of OlogiesTranscripts and bleeped episodesSmologies (short, classroom-safe) episodesBecome a patron of Ologies for as little as a buck a monthOlogiesMerch.com has hats, shirts, masks, totes!Follow @Ologies on Twitter and InstagramFollow @AlieWard on Twitter and InstagramSound editing by Jarrett Sleeper of MindJam Media & Steven Ray MorrisTranscripts by Emily White of The WordaryWebsite by Kelly R. DwyerTheme song by Nick Thorburn Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
We know very little about the actual history of humanity, and what most people believe has happened, and what is possible, comes from Hollywood movies and science fiction books. History is whatever the textbooks and teachers say it is. What would happen to society if the veil was lifted all at once? Could humanity deal with this massive paradigm shift? Or would the revelations be too much for the average person to internalize and digest? We run a thought experiment to analyze how things would change in the aftermath of a global announcement of the non-human influence on this planet.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comAnarchapulco: https://Anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
More Americans are blaming the AI infrastructure expansion for rising electricity bills. Our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore explains how the topic may influence policy announcements ahead of the midterm elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research for Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be talking about the relationship between affordability, the data center buildout, and the midterm elections. It's Wednesday, February 18th at 10am in New York. Markets and voters continue to grapple with questions on AI, including its potential scope, impact, and disruption across industries. That's been a clear theme on the policy side as voters seem to be pushing back against AI development and data center buildout in particular. In key states, voters are associating the rise in electricity bills with AI infrastructure – and we think that could be an important read across for the midterm elections in November. Now to be sure, electricity inflation has stayed sticky at around four to 5 percent year-over- year, and our economists expect it to remain in that range through this year and next. Nationally the impact of data centers on electricity prices has been relatively modest so far, but regionally, the pressure has been more visible. To that point, a recent survey in Pennsylvania found that nearly twice as many respondents believe AI will hurt the economy as it will help. More than half – 55 percent – think AI is likely to take away jobs in their own industry, and 71 percent said they're concerned about how much electricity data centers consume. But this isn't just a Pennsylvania story. In other battleground states like Arizona and Michigan, voters have actually rejected plans to build new data centers locally. So, what could that mean for the midterm elections? Think back to the off-cycle elections in November of last year. Candidates who ran on this theme of affordability and actually pushed back against data center construction tended to do pretty well in their respective races. Looking ahead to the midterm elections later this year, we see two clear takeaways from a policy perspective. First, it's important to note that more of the policy action here will actually continue to be at the local rather than federal level. Some states with heavy data center build out – so Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas among others – are now debating who should pay for grid upgrades. Federal proposals on this topic are still pretty nascent and fragmented. Meanwhile, public utility commissions in states like Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana have adopted or proposed large load tariffs. These require data centers to shoulder more upfront grid costs; or can reflect conditional charges like long-term contracts, minimum demand charges, exit fees or collateral requirements – all of which are designed to prevent costs from spilling over to households. And secondly, because of that limited federal action, we expect the Trump administration to continue leaning on other levers of affordability policy, where the president actually does have some more unilateral control. We've been expecting the administration to continue focusing on broader affordability areas ranging from housing to trade policy, as we've said on this podcast in the past. That dynamic is especially relevant this week as the Supreme Court could rule as soon as Friday on whether or not the president has the authority under IEEPA to impose the broad-based reciprocal tariffs. The administration thus far has been projecting a message of continuity. But we've noted that a decision that constrains that authority could give the president an opportunity to pursue a lighter touch tariff policy in response to the public's concerns around affordability. That's why we think the AI infrastructure buildout debate will continue to be a flashpoint into November, especially in the context of rising data center demand. Next week, when the president delivers his State of the Union address, we expect to hear plenty about not just affordability, but also AI leadership and competitiveness. But an equally important message will be around the administration's potential policy options to address its associated costs. That tension between AI supremacy and rising everyday costs for voters will be critical in shaping the electoral landscape into November. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen; and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
We wrap the NFC divisions with NFC West Trinity (Episode 5)—breaking down every team's fantasy environment heading into free agency using the Trinity Tracker on ddfantasyfootball.com. We start in Arizona with the big questions (QB play, new OC, and the Marvin Harrison Jr. vs Michael Wilson market gap), then hit the Rams' concentrated offense and why their tight end room is still a trap. We finish with Seattle's post-title outlook (JSN at the top, what to do with the WR2 chatter) and San Francisco's wide-open pass-catcher room where Ricky Pearsall sits in a prime environment if he can stay on the field. Timestamps / Chapters 00:00 NFC West Trinity Episode 5 + Seahawks champs context 00:50 What this series is + Trinity Tracker + community plug 01:48 Why offseason is the “fun part” (strategy, theory, GM mode) 02:41 NFC West overview: elite pass catchers + what stands out 03:28 Coaching/OC changes to watch (Arizona, Seattle) 04:07 Macro takeaway: “studs + gnats” and who needs additions 04:50 Arizona Cardinals opener + Trey McBride season setup 05:21 Why McBride breaks TE premiums and roster construction 06:01 What changed in Arizona (volume, pass rate, pace) 07:32 Concentration + LaFleur influence + QB efficiency concerns 09:50 McBride historical Trinity context vs elite WR seasons 12:34 Biggest Arizona questions: Marv vs Wilson + RB receiving volume 15:00 KTC check + how the market values Marv vs Wilson 16:32 Removing “what Marv should've been” from the eval 18:15 Wilson spike weeks and what they mean for roster builds 20:27 Kyler weeks (1–6) vs Brissett weeks (7–17) comparison 24:27 Filtered “Marv missed games” and Wilson eruption 26:06 What Wilson is worth in trades (range check vs WR assets) 31:25 Where Wilson belongs (WR20–35 range) + Marv range talk 34:37 2024 overlap: Marv vs Wilson when both are active 36:19 Los Angeles Rams — receivers are easy, tight ends aren't 38:41 If Rams draft a WR: realistic rookie year outcomes 43:50 Rams TE room: Ferguson vs Parkinson (2TE/3TE usage) 47:49 Why the Rams TE bet is shaky even post-Higbee 50:55 Seattle Seahawks — JSN, WR2 chatter, TE outlook 52:31 Torrey Horton “WR2” narrative check 54:06 Weeks 1–9 Horton usage + historical hit-rate reality 58:06 A.J. Barner value + TE thresholds in Trinity context 1:02:17 Why the buy window on Barner is now (before narratives flip) 1:02:37 San Francisco 49ers — thin pass-catcher room, big need 1:04:36 Pearsall range of outcomes + availability risk 1:10:27 NFC West environment takeaway (all teams top-20) 1:12:46 Next episode preview: AFC East + series cadence 1:13:28 Membership + Discord/community close Thank you for checking out the Podcast, be sure to follow and comment if you have any questions, we are always happy to answer any. For Access to our Premium Tools (Trinity, WAR & More) & Discord Community https://ddfantasyfootball.com/subscriptions/ Subscribe to the Youtube Channel DDFFB https://www.youtube.com/@DDFFB Sub to the Wake up YT Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaIJqSepjl-eZ2YEaaLciFA Subscribe to Ray's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RayGQue Check out All of Ray's Articles at Yahoo!: https://sports.yahoo.com/author/ray-garvin/ Follow Ray on Bleacher Report: https://br.app.link/7ExIDsWfHVb Follow us on Twitter: https://x.com/destinationdevy Become a Member on Youtube for access to the Dynasty Deal Show Live, Destination Chill and other member benefits, like priority reply to comments and unique badges and emojis: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV84gHvtBMXxzN9ZPI9XHfg/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Head of U.S. Internet Research Brian Nowak joins U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst Nathan Feather to explain why the future of agentic commerce is closer than you think.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet ResearchNathan Feather: And I'm Nathan Feather, U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst.Brian Nowak: Today, how AI-powered shopping assistants are set to revolutionize the e-commerce experience.It's Tuesday, February 17th at 8am in New York.Nathan, let's talk a little bit about agentic commerce. When was the last time you reordered groceries? Or bought household packaged goods? Or compared prices for items you [b]ought online and said, ‘Boy, I wish there was an easier way to do this. I wish technology could solve this for me.'Nathan Feather: Yeah. Yesterday, about 24 hours ago.Brian Nowak: Well, our work on agentic commerce shows a lot of these capabilities could be [coming] sooner than a lot of people appreciate. We believe that agentic commerce could grow to be 10 to 20 percent of overall U.S. e-commerce by 2030, and potentially add 100 to 300 basis points of overall growth to e-commerce.There are certain categories of spend we think are going to be particularly large unlocks for agentic commerce. I mentioned grocery, I mentioned household essentials. We think these are some of the items that agentic commerce is really going to drive a further digitization of over the next five years.So maybe Nathan, let's start at the very top. Our work we did together shows that 40 to 50 percent of consumers in the U.S. already use different AI tools for product research, but only a mid single digit percentage of them are actually really starting their shopping journey or buying things today. What does that gap tell you about the agentic opportunity and some of the hurdles we have to overcome to close that gap from research to actual purchasing?Nathan Feather: Well, I think what it shows is that clearly there is demand from consumers for these products. We think agentic opens up both evolutionary and revolutionary ways to shop online for consumers. But at the moment, the tools aren't fully developed and the consumer behavior isn't yet there. And so, we think it'll take time for these tools to develop. But once they do, it's clear that the consumer use case is there and you'll start to see adoption.And building on that, Brian, on the large cap side, you've done a lot of work here on how the shopping funnel itself could evolve. Traditionally discovery has flowed through search, social or direct traffic. Now we're seeing agents begin to sit in the start of the funnel acting as the gatekeeper to the transaction. For the biggest platforms with massive reach, how meaningful is that shift?Brian Nowak: It is very meaningful. And I think that this agentic shift in how people research products, price compare products, purchase products, is going to lead to even more advertis[ing] and value creation opportunity for the big social media platforms, for the big video platforms. Because essentially these big platforms that have large corpuses of users, spending a lot of time on them are going to be more important than ever for companies that want to launch new products. Companies that want to introduce their products to new customers.People that want to start new businesses entirely, it's going to be harder to reach new potential customers in an agentic world. So, I think some of these leading social and reach based video platforms are going to go up in value and you'll see more spend on those for people to build awareness around new and existing products.On this point of the products, you know, our work shows that grocery and consumer packaged goods are probably going to be one of the largest category unlocks. You know, we already know that over 50 percent of incremental e-commerce growth in the U.S. is going to come from grocery and CPG. And we think agentic is going to be a similar dynamic where grocery and CPG is going to drive a lot of agentic spend.Why do you think that is? And sort of walk us through, what has to happen in your mind for people to really pivot and start using agents to shop for their weekly grocery basket?Nathan Feather: I think one of the key things about the grocery category is it's a very high friction category online. You have to go through and select each individual ingredient you want [in] the order, ensure that you have the right brand, the right number of units, and ensure that the substitutions – when somebody actually gets to the store – are correct.And so for a user, it just takes a substantial amount of time to build a basket for online grocery. We think agentic can change that by becoming your personal digital shopper. You can say something as simple as, ‘I want to make steak tacos for dinner.' And it can add all of the ingredients you want to your order. Go from the grocery store you like. And hey, it'll know your preferences. It'll know you already like a certain brand of tortillas, and it'll add those to the cart. And so it just dramatically reduces the friction.Now, that will take time to build the tools. The tools aren't there today, but we think that can come sooner than people expect. Even over the next one to two years that you start to get this revolutionary grocery experience.And so, it's coming. And from your perspective, Brian, once agentic grocery shopping does start to work, how does that impact the broader e-commerce adoption curve? Does it pull forward agentic behavior in other categories as well?Brian Nowak: I think it does. I think it does lead to more durable multi-year, overall e-commerce growth. And potentially in some of our more bull case scenarios, we've built out – even an acceleration in e-commerce growth, even though the numbers and the dollars added are getting larger. But there is some tension around profitability.We are in a world where a lot of e-commerce companies, they generate an outsized percentage of their profit from advertising and retail media that is attached to current transactions. Agentic commerce and agents wedging themself between the consumer and these platforms potentially put some of these high-margin retail media ad dollars at risk.So talk us through some of the math that we've run on that potential risk to any of the companies that are feeding into these agents for people to shop through.Nathan Feather: Well, in our work for most e-commerce companies, a majority – or sometimes even all – of their e-commerce profitability comes from the advertising side. And so this is the key profit pool for e-commerce. To the extent that goes away, there is one potential offset here, which is the lower fee that agentic offers for companies that currently have high marketing spend. To the extent that agentic offers a lower take rate, that could be an offset.But we think it's going to be very important for companies to monitor the retail media landscape and ensure they can try to keep direct traffic as best as possible. And things like onsite agents could be really important to making sure you're staying top of mind and owning that customer relationship.Now, on the platform side, search today captures an implied take rates that are 5-10 times higher than what we're seeing in the early agentic transaction fees. If this model does shift from CPC – or cost per click – towards a more commission based model, Brian, how do you think search platforms respond?Brian Nowak: I think the punchline is the percentage of traffic and transactions that retailers or brands or companies selling their items online that's paid is going to go up. You know, while search is a relatively more expensive channel on a per transaction basis, search works because there's a very large amount of unpaid and direct traffic that retailers benefit from post the first time they spend on search.Just some math on this. We're still at a situation where 80 percent of retailers' online traffic is free. Or direct. And so if we do get into a situation where there's a transition from a higher monetizing per transaction search to a lower monetizing per transaction agent, I would expect the search platforms to react by essentially making it more challenging to get free and direct and unpaid traffic. And we'll have that transition from more transactions at a lower rate; as opposed to fewer transactions at a higher rate, which is what we have now,Nathan, in our work, we also talked about a Five I's framework. We talked about inventory, infrastructure, innovation, incrementality and income statement, sort of a retailer framework to assess positioning within the agentic transition. Maybe walk us through what your big takeaways were from the Five I's framework and what it means that retailers need to be mindful of throughout this agentic transition.Nathan Feather: Well, for retailers, I think it's going to be very important that you're winning by differentiation. Having unique, competitively priced inventory with infrastructure that can fulfill that quickly to the consumer and critically staying on the leading edge of innovation.It's one thing to have the inventory. It's another thing to be able to be actively plugged into these agentic tools and make sure you're developing good experiences for your customers that actually are on this cutting edge. In addition, it's one thing to have all of that, but you want to make sure there's also incrementality opportunity.So [the] ability to go out, expand the TAM and gain market share. And of course what we just talked about with the margin risk, I think all of those are going to be very important. And so on balance for retailers, we do see a lot of opportunity. That's balanced with a lot of risk. But this is one of those key transition moments that we think companies that really execute and perform well should be able to perform nicely.Now finally, Brian, over the next five years, how do you think agent commerce reshapes competitive dynamics across the internet ecosystem?Brian Nowak: I think over the next few years, we're going to realize that agentic commerce is no longer a fringe experiment or a concept. It's a reality. And we may get to the point where we don't even talk about agentic commerce or agentic shopping. We just say, “‘This cool thing I did through my browser.' Or, ‘Look at what my search portal can do. Look at how my search portal found me this product. Look at how my groceries got delivered.' And it'll become part of recurring life. It'll become normal.So right now we say it's agentic, it's far off. It's going to take time to develop. But I would argue that every year that goes by, it's going to be becoming more part of normal life. And we'll just say, ‘This is how I shop online.'Nathan, thanks for taking the time todayNathan Feather: It was great speaking with you, Brian.Brian Nowak: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Macro analyst Lyn Alden returns to Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell to break down the state of Bitcoin and what comes next. We dive into: Is the Bitcoin bottom in or is more pain ahead? Why Lyn expects a gradual money print, not a "big" or "nuclear" print Where is retail? Why everyday investors haven't shown up this last Bitcoin cycle Capitulation and nerves — what Lyn has to say about sentiment The catalysts that could spark Bitcoin's next major run Why Lyn is no longer as bullish on gold & precious metals as she was in recent years ---- Order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," a simple introduction to Bitcoin and what's broken in our current financial system: https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU --- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See website for rates & fees. Learn more at https://www.gemini.com/natalie ---- Ledn is the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Get .25% off your first loan, learn more at https://www.Ledn.io/natalie ---- Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product Partners: For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Play Bitcoin trivia and win up to 1 million sats! Download and use promo code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats: https://www.speed.app/coinstories Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie With BitcoinIRA, you can invest in bitcoin 24/7 inside a tax-advantaged IRA. Choose a Traditional IRA to defer taxes, or a Roth IRA for tax-free withdrawals later. Take control of your future with BitcoinIRA: https://www.bitcoinira.com/natalie Natalie's Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput= Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas on February 23-26th - Use code HODL for discounted tickets: https://www.strategysoftware.com/world26 Extra Services to Consider: Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie Ditch your fiat health insurance like I did four years ago! Join me at CrowdHealth: www.joincrowdhealth.com/natalie ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing
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Bob and Ben recap the biggest insights from our 2026 Economic Outlook and Macro Forecast presentations, featuring perspectives from Belinda Román, John Chang, and Jay Parsons. They cover GDP growth expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, housing market trends, and real estate investment signals — plus why investor sentiment may matter more than the data in the near term.A fast, data-driven snapshot of the 2026 economy, rates, and real estate outlook.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to https://investlikeabillionaire.org/ to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at https://aspenfunds.us/
Iconic investors sit down with Morgan Stanley leaders to go behind the scenes on the critical moments – both successes and setbacks – that shaped who they are today.Watch and listen to the series on your favorite platform.
For three decades, the Executive Director of Paradigm Research Group has been pushing Washington, D.C., for disclosure of the technologically advanced, non-human presence on this planet. All of the hard work might just pay off, as the pieces are quickly snapping together towards Disclosure Day.Stephen Bassett believes we may be only months away from an official disclosure of what many have suspected, and some have always known, about the true nature of the existence of other life forms. How will society respond, and what will the messaging from the religious institutions look like once the genie is out of the bottle? We may not have to wait much longer to find out.—Guest LinksStephen Bassettwww.ParadigmResearchGroup.org—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—
The Hulu's series, ‘Murdaugh: Death in the Family' has generated renewed interest in the case. This special release of the original investigative series Laura shared in April 2023 is in addition to recent interviews about the series. Incensed that Maggie had become a footnote in her own murder, Laura began her deep dive that to fix the narrative and deconstruct and decode Alex Murdaugh's behaviour with forensic precision. Don't forget to listen to the new episodes with Mandy Matney and creators of the show, starting from Ep 285 and join in for additional episodes and interviews with Mandy Matney, Erin Lee Carr, Liz Farrell and David Moses in the Crime Analyst Squad: patreon.com/CrimeAnalyst Registration for spring 2026 Masterclasses is now open here: bit.ly/LRMasterclasses2026 ****** Laura continues to unravel the timeline and shares that, in addition to the boat crash case and PMPED's COO and CFO Jeanne Seckinger's confrontation with Murdaugh about the missing $792k missing legal fees on June 7th, there was another very serious investigation into Murdaugh's behaviour and finances, which began before Maggie and Paul's murders. Laura then details Gloria Satterfield's troubling case and how a Judge signed off on a $4.3m settlement, which included $1.45m attorney fees and $105,000 prosecution expenses, which went to guess who? Gloria's family knew nothing about this. One month before signing off on the settlement, that same Judge recused herself from the boat crash case due to her long-standing relationship with Murdaugh. In this episode, Laura also highlights first hand testimony from those who knew Murdaugh the best which helps develop the behavioural profile of Murdaugh and talks to motive. Join Laura as she breaks it all down. #MaggieMurdaugh #PaulMurdaugh #StephenSmith #GloriaSatterfield #MalloryBeach #MurdaughMurders #Murder #AlexMurdaugh #MaleViolence #DomesticAbuse #DomesticHomicide #Timeline #CrimeAnalyst #Expert #Analysis #Behaviour #TrueCrime #Podcast #TrueCrimePodcast Clips https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qUgdtQlAnQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fLV7aWq7t0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r3IkeqM7a4 https://www.fitsnews.com/2022/04/26/murdaugh-murders-saga-south-carolina-grand-jury-was-probing-alex-murdaughs-finances-prior-to-double-homicide/ Sources https://murdaughmurderspodcast.com/ https://www.justice.gov/usao-sc/pr/alex-murdaugh-indicted-federal-conspiracy-wire-fraud-bank-fraud-and-money-laundering https://www.fitsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/talahassee-democrat.jpeg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StHXgB0oSoQ https://www.thedailybeast.com/alex-murdaughs-pmped-law-firm-colleagues-describe-his-work-behavior-in-murder-trial https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/federal-judge-says-multi-million-dollar-murdaugh-insurance-policy-doesnt-cover-boat-crash-that-killed-mallory-beach/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mallory-beach-death-alex-murdaugh-boating-crash/ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10045843/Alex-Murdaughs-wife-Maggie-met-divorce-attorney-just-six-weeks-killed.html https://people.com/crime/maggie-murdaugh-saw-divorce-lawyer-six-weeks-before-murders/ https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/us/alex-murdaugh-whats-next/index.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/alex-murdaugh-trial-voicemail-pills-b2284637.html https://wpde.com/news/local/judge-approves-43m-judgement-for-estate-of-alex-murdaugh-housekeeper-gloria-satterfield https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/curtis-eddie-smith-bond-alex-murdaugh-b2313351.html Masterclasses and Crime Analyst Resources and Community The Crime Analyst Squad is a growing and dynamic community offering expert insight, in-depth conversations, exclusive episodes and videos, and live events. Join the community or follow along: Patreon: Crime Analyst Squad If you found this episode valuable, please consider leaving a five start review wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Alex Gurevich. They'll discuss, fixed income, energy, precious metals, the Japanese Yen, and Alex's new book just released on Amazon. https://bit.ly/4tzXAdi Buy Alex's new book 'The Next Perfect Trade' available on Amazon