Podcasts about Macro

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Darius Dale. They discuss why Darius thinks that one year from now in January 2027, we'll probably look back on 2026 as an up year for most financial markets. But Darius says put your seat belt on for the first few months of the year, which he thinks could be quite turbulent. https://bit.ly/49LhPNe   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/49eoyzj  

Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research. Andrew Percoco: And I'm Andrew Percoco, Head of North America Autos and Shared Mobility Research. Brian Nowak: Today we're going to talk about why we think 2026 could be a game changer and a point of inflection for autonomous vehicles and autonomous driving. It's Thursday, January 8th at 10am in New York. So, Andrew, let's get started. Have you ridden an autonomous car before? Andrew Percoco: Yeah, absolutely. Took a few in L.A., took one in San Francisco not too long ago. Pretty seamless and interesting experience to say the least. Brian Nowak: Any accidents or awkward left turns? Or did you feel pretty comfortable the whole time? Andrew Percoco: No, I felt pretty comfortable the whole time. No edge cases, no issues. So, all five star reviews for me. Brian Nowak: Andrew, we think your answer is going to be a lot more common as we go throughout 2026. As autonomous availability scales throughout more and more cities. Things are changing quickly. And we kind of look at our model on a city-by-city basis. We think that overall availability for autonomous driving in the U.S. is going to go from about 15 percent of the urban population at the end of 2025 to over 30 percent of the urban population by year end 2026. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, totally agree. Brian, I'm just curious. Like maybe layout for us, you know, what you're expecting for 2026 in more detail in terms of city rollouts, players involved and what we should be watching for throughout the next, you know, nine to 12 months. Brian Nowak: We have multiple new cities across the United States where we expect Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, and others to expand their fleet, expand autonomous driving availability, and ultimately make the product a lot more available and commonplace for people. There are also new potential edge cases that we think we're going to see. We're going to have our first snow cities with Waymo expected to launch in Washington, D.C.; potentially in Colorado, potentially in Michigan. So, we could have proof of concept that autonomous driving can also work in snow throughout [20]26 and into 2027 as well. So, in all, we think as we sit here at the start of [20]26, one year from now, there's going to be a lot more people who are going to say: I'm using an autonomous car to drive me around in my everyday practice. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And I guess, what do you think the drivers are to get us there, right? There's also some concerns about safety, adoption, you know, cost structure. What are the main drivers that really make this growth algorithm work and really scales the robotaxi business for some of the key players? Brian Nowak: Part of it is regulatory. You know, we are still in a situation where we are dealing with state-by-state regulatory approvals needed for these autonomous vehicles and autonomous fleets to be built. We'll see if that changes, but for now, it's state by state regulation. After that, it comes down to technology, and each of the platforms needs to prove that their autonomous offerings are significantly safer than human driving. That is also linked to regulatory approval. And so, when we think about fleets becoming safer, proving that they can drive people more miles without having an accident than even a human can – we think about the autonomous players then scaling up their fleets. To make the cars and fleets available to more people. That is sort of the flywheel that we think is going to play out throughout 2026. The other part that we're very focused on across all the players from Waymo to Tesla to Zoox and others is the cost of the cars. And there is a big difference between the cost of a Waymo per mile versus the cost of a Tesla per mile. And we think one of the tension points, Andrew, that you can, you can talk about a little bit here, is the difference in the safety data and what we see on Tesla as of now versus Waymo – versus the cost advantage that Tesla has. So, talk about the cost advantage that Tesla has through all this as of right now. Andrew Percoco: Yeah, definitely. So, you know, as you mentioned, Tesla today has a very clear cost advantage over many of the robotaxi peers that they're competing with. A lot of that's driven by their vertical integration, and their sensor suite, right? So, their vehicle, the cost of their vehicle is – call it $35,000. You've got the camera only sensor approach. So, you don't have lidar, expensive lidar, and radar in the vehicle. And that's just really driven a meaningful cost improvement and cost advantage. On our math about a 40 percent cost advantage relative to Waymo today. Now going forward, you know, as you mentioned, I think the key hurdle here or bottleneck, that Tesla still needs to prove is their safety. And can they reach the same safety standards as a human driver? And, you know, the improvement that you've seen from Waymo. You know, to put some numbers around this. Based on publicly available data in Austin, Tesla's getting in a crash, you know, every about, call it every 50,000 miles; Waymo is closer to every 400,000 miles per crash. So today, Waymo is the leader on safety.I think the one important caveat that I want to mention here is that's on a relatively small number of miles driven for Tesla. They've only driven about 250,000 miles in Austin, whereas Waymo's driven close to, I think, a hundred million miles cumulatively. So, when you look back, I think this is going to be the kind of key catalyst and key data point for investors to watch is – how that data improves over the course of 2026. If you track Waymo – Waymo's data improved substantially as their miles driven improved, and as they launched into new cities.We'd expect Tesla to follow a similar trend. But that's going to be a huge catalyst in validating this camera only approach. If that happens, Tesla's not limited in scale, they're not limited in manufacturing capacity. You can meaningfully see them expand… Or you can see them expand quite quickly once they prove out that safety requirement. Brian Nowak: I think it's a great point because, you know, one of the other big debates that we are all going to have to monitor in the AV space throughout 2026 is: How quickly does Tesla completely pull the safety drivers, and how quickly do they scale up production of the vehicles? Because one of the bank shots around autonomous driving is actually the rideshare industry. You know, we have partnerships; some partnerships between Waymo and Uber and Waymo and Lyft. But Tesla is not partnering with anyone. And so, I think the extent to which we see a faster than expected ramp up in deployment from Tesla can have a lot of impact. Not only on autonomous adoption, competition with Waymo, but also the rideshare industry.So how do you think about the puts and takes on Tesla and sort of removing the drivers and scaling up the fleet this year? What should we be watching? Andrew Percoco: Yeah, so they've already made some strides there in Austin. They've pulled the safety monitor. They haven't opened that up to the public yet without the safety monitor. They're still testing, presumably in that geography. They need to be extremely careful in terms of, you know, the regulatory compliance and making sure they're doing this in a safe way. Ultimately that's what matters most to them. We do expect them to roll it out to the public without the safety monitor in 2026. Whether or not, that's the first quarter or the third quarter – is a little bit tougher to predict. But I think it's reasonable to assume whatever the timeline is, they're going to make sure it's the safest way possible to ensure that there's, you know, no unintended consequences as it relates to regulation, et cetera. I think one, also; one important data point or interesting data point here. You know, we model, I think, a 100 percent CAGR in miles driven, autonomous miles driven through 2032. You can talk a little bit about, you know, what the implications for rideshare, but I think important. It's important to contextualize that would still only represent less than 1 percent of total U.S. miles driven in the U.S. So substantial growth over the next, call it six or seven years. But still a massive TAM to be tapped into beyond 2032. And I think the key there is – what's the cost reduction roadmap look like? And can we get robotaxis to a point where they are cheaper than personal car ownership? And could robotaxis at some point disrupt the car ownership process? Brian Nowak: Yeah. And the other more important point around rideshare will be how much do these autonomous offerings expand the addressable market for rideshare and prove to be incremental? As opposed to being cannibalistic on existing ride share rides. Because you're right that, you know, even our out year autonomous projections still have it less than 1 percent of the total trips. But the question is how much does that add to ride share? Because in some scenarios, those autonomous trips could end up being 20 to 30 percent of the rideshare industry. This matters for Uber and Lyft because while they are partnering Waymo and other autonomous players across a handful of markets, they're not partnered in all the markets. And in some markets, Waymo is going alone. Tesla is going at it alone. And so when we look at our model and we say as of 2024, Uber and Lyft make up 100 percent of the ride share industry based on the current partnerships, which includes Waymo and Tesla and all; and Zoox and all the players, we think that Uber and Lyft will only make up 30 percent of the autonomous driving market. And so it's really important for the rideshare industry that when, number one, we see AV's being incremental to the TAM; and two, that Uber and Lyft are able to continue to add more partnerships over time to drive more of that overall long-term AV opportunity and participate in all this rideshare industry over the next five years. Andrew Percoco: I think it's really clear that the future of autonomous vehicles is here and we've reached an inflection point; and there's a lot of interesting catalysts and data points for us and for investors to watch for throughout 2026.So Brian, thanks again for taking the time to talk. Brian Nowak: Andrew, great speaking with you. And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Travis is kicking off the offseason with a review of the Dolphins General Manager candidates and a review of what Miami has to build upon, and where things can improve for 2026. Plus, Travis fills out his playoff bracket and previews the College Football Playoff semifinal round.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A full two centuries after the original Monroe Doctrine, Donald Trump has conceptualized a new version of the 1823 doctrine for the modern era. In stark contrast to Globalism, the Trump Doctrine would put an end to America's involvement in global free trade and instead would prioritize the Western Hemisphere.Unfortunately for Central and South America, they just became the new target of American interest, which explains the recent provocation with Venezuela. As the American Empire consolidates in the Western Hemisphere, the acquisition of natural resources will begin, as the corporations descend into newly opened and deregulated markets through commercial diplomacy.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsAnarchapulco: https://anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://groundluxe.com/MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur is joined by Dan Toscano, the firm's Chairman of Markets in Private Equity, unpack how credit markets are changing—and what the AI buildup means for the road ahead.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today is a special edition of our podcast. We are joined by Dan Toscano, Chairman of Markets in Private Equity at Morgan Stanley, and a seasoned practitioner of credit markets over many, many credit cycles. We will get his thoughts on the ongoing evolution and revolution in credit marketsIt's Wednesday, January 7th at 10am in New York. Dan, welcome.Dan Toscano: Glad to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: So, to get our – the listeners familiar with your journey, can you talk a little bit about your experience in the credit markets, and how you got to where we are today?Dan Toscano: Yeah, sure. So, I've been doing this a long time. You used the nice word seasoned. My kids would refer to it as old. But I started in this journey in 1988. And to make a long story short, my first job on Wall Street was buying junk bonds in the infancy of the junk bond market, when most of what we were financing were LBOs. So, if you're familiar with Barbarians at the Gate, one of the first bonds we bought were RJR Nabisco reset notes. And I've been doing this ever since, so over almost four decades now.Vishy Tirupattur: So, the junk bond market evolved into high yield market, syndicated loan market, CLO market, financial crisis. So, talk to us about your experiences during this transition.Dan Toscano: Yeah. I mean, one of the things these markets do is they finance evolution in industries. So, when I think back to the early days of financing leveraged buyouts, they were called bootstrap deals. The first deal I did as an intermediary on Wall Street as opposed to as an investor, was a buyout with Bain Capital in 1993. At the time, Bain Capital had a $600 million AUM private equity platform. Think about that in the scale of what Bain Capital does in private equity today. You know, back then it was corporate carve outs, and trying to make the global economy more efficient. And you remember the rise of the conglomerate. And so, one of the early things we financed a lot of was the de-conglomeration of big corporates. So, they would spin off assets that were not central to the business or the strengths that they had as an organization.So, that was the early days of private equity. There was obviously the telecom build out in the late 90's and the resulting bust. And then into the GFC. And we sit here today with the distinctions of private capital, private credit, public credit, syndicated credit, and all the amazing things that are being financed in, you know, what I think of as the next industrial revolution.Vishy Tirupattur: In terms of things that have changed a lot – a lot also changed following the financial crisis. So, if you dig deep into that one thing that happened was the introduction of leveraged lending guidelines. Can you talk about what leveraged lending guidelines did to the credit markets?Dan Toscano: Yeah, I mean, it was a big change for underwriters because it dictated what you could and couldn't participate in as an underwriter or a lender, and so it really cut off one end of the market that was determined by – and I think the thing most famously attributed to the leveraged lending guidelines was this maximum leverage notion of six times leverage is the cap. Nothing beyond that. And so that really limited the ability for Wall Street firms to underwrite and distribute capital to support those deals.And inadvertently, or maybe by plan, really gave rise to the growth in the private credit market. So, when you think about everything that's going on in the world today, including, which I'm sure we'll talk about, the relaxation of the leveraged lending guidelines, it was really fuel for private credit.Vishy Tirupattur: So private credit, this relaxation that you mentioned, you know, a few weeks ago, the FDIC and the OCC withdrew the leveraged lending guidelines in total. What do you expect that will do to the private credit markets? Will that make private credit market share decrease and bank market share increase?Dan Toscano: I think many people think of these as being mutually exclusive. We've never thought of it that way. It exists more on a continuum. And so, what I think the relaxation of those guidelines or the elimination of those guidelines really frees the banks to participate in the entire continuum, either as lenders or as underwriters.And so, in addition to the opportunity that gives the banks to really find the best solutions for their clients, I think this will also continue the blurring of distinctions between public market credit and private market credit. Because now the banks can participate in all of it. And when you think about what defines in people's minds – public credit versus private credit, in many cases it's driven by what terms look like. Customary terms for a syndicated bond or loan versus a private credit loan.Also, who's participating in it. You know, these things have been blurring, right? There's a cost differential or a perceived cost differential that has been blurring for some time now. That will continue to happen, in my opinion anyway.Vishy Tirupattur: I totally agree with you, Dan, on that. I think not only the distinction between public credit and private credit, but also within the various credit channels – secured, unsecured, securitized, structured – all these distinctions are also blurring. So, in that context, let's talk a little bit more about what private credit's focus has been and where private credit focus will be going forward. So, what we'll call private credit 1.0. Focused predominantly on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. And we now see that potentially changing. What is driving private credit 2.0 in your mind?Dan Toscano: Well, the elephant in the room is digital infrastructure. Absolutely. When you think about the scale of what is happening, the type of capital that's required for the build out, the structure you need around it, the ability to use elements of structure. You mentioned several of them earlier. To come up with an appropriate risk structure for lending is really where the market is heading. When you think about the trillions of dollars that we anticipate is needed for the technology industry to complete this transformation – not just around digital infrastructure, but around everything associated with it.And the big one I think of most often is power, right? So, you need capital to build out sources of power, and you need capital to build out the data centers to be able to handle the compute demand that is expected to be there. This is a scale unlike anything we have ever seen. It is the backbone of what will be the next industrial revolution.We've never seen anything like this in terms of the scale of the capital needed for the transformation that is already underway.Vishy Tirupattur: We are very much on board with this idea as well, Dan, in terms of the scale of the investment, the capital investment that is needed. So, when you look ahead for 2026, what worries you about the ind ustrial revolution financing that is underway?Dan Toscano: Given all that's going on in the world, this massive capital investment that's going on globally around digital infrastructure, we've never seen this before. And so, when I look at the capital raising that has been done in 2025 versus what will be done in 2026, I think one of the differences that we have to be mindful of is – nothing's gone wrong while we were raising capital in 2025 because we were very much in the infancy of these buildouts. Once you get further into these buildouts and the capital raises in 2025 that are funding the development of data centers start to season, problems will emerge. The essence of credit risk is there will be problems and it's really trying to predict and foresee where the problems will be and make sure you can manage your way through them.That is the essence of successful credit investing. And so there will definitely be issues when you think about the scale of the build out that is happening. Even if you look just in the U.S., where you need access to all sorts of commodities to build out. And you know, people focus on chips, but you also need steel and roofing, and importantly labor.And as we talk to people about the build outs, one of the concerns is supply of labor supply and cost of labor. So, when you run into situations where maybe a project is delayed a bit, or the costs are a bit more than what was expected, there will be a reaction. And we haven't had that yet. We will start to see that in 2026 and how investors and the markets react to that, I think will be very important. And I'm a little bit worried that there could be some overreaction because people have trained themselves in 2025 to think of like, ‘I'm operating in a perfect environment,' because we haven't really done anything yet. And now that we've done something, something can and will go wrong. So, you know, we'll see how that plays out.I am very fixated in 2026 on the laws of supply and demand. When I think about what's going on right now, we usually have visibility on demand. And we usually have some level of visibility on supply. Right now, we have neither – and I say that in a positive way. We don't know how big the demand is in the capital world to fund these projects. We don't know how big that can be. And almost with every passing day, the supply – and what we're hearing from our clients about what they need to execute their plans – continues to grow in a way that we don't know where it ends. And the scale, we're talking trillions of dollars, right? Not billions, not millions, but trillions.And so, I look at that – not so much as something I worry about, but something I'm really curious about. Will we run out of money to fund all of the ambitions of the Industrial Revolution? I don't think so. I think money will find great projects, but when you think about the scale of what we're looking at, we've never seen anything like it before. And it will be fascinating to watch as the year goes on.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks Dan. That's very useful. And thanks for taking the time to speak to us and share your wisdom and insights. Dan Toscano: Well, it's great to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today

The sectors that worked in 2025 … and the sectors that could surge in 2026. Thomas Carr, founder and CEO of DrStoxx.com, discusses what to look for in the next explosive sector and how to find it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Deputy Director of Global Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore discuss the implications of the U.S action in Venezuela for global markets, foreign and domestic policy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the latest events in Venezuela and its implications for global markets.It's Tuesday, January 6th at 10am in New York. So, Ariana, before we get into it: Long time listeners might have noticed in our intro, a changeup in our titles. Ariana, you're stepping in to lead day-to-day public policy research. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And Mike, you're taking on more of a leadership role across the research department globally. Michael Zezas: Right, which is great news for both of us. And because the interaction between public policy choices and financial markets is as critical as ever, and because collaboration is so important to how we do investment research at Morgan Stanley – tapping into expertise and insight wherever we can find it – you're still going to hear from one of – and sometimes both of us – here on Thoughts on the Market on a weekly basis. Ariana Salvatore: And this week is a great example of this dynamic as we start the New Year with investors trying to decide what, if anything, the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela means for the outlook for markets. Michael Zezas: Right. So, to that point, the New Year's barely begun, but it's already brought a dramatic geopolitical situation: The U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro – an event that can have far reaching implications for oil markets, energy, equities, sovereign credit, and politics. Ariana, thinking from the perspective of the investor, what's catching your attention right now? Ariana Salvatore: I think clients have been trying to get their arms around what this means for the future of U.S. foreign policy, as well as domestic policy making here too. On the first point, I would say this isn't necessarily a surprise or out of step with the goals that the Trump administration has been at least rhetorically emphasizing all year. Which is to say we think this is really just another data point in a pre-existing longer term trend toward multipolarity. Remember that involves linkage of economic and national security interest. It comes with its own set of investment themes, many of which we've written about, but one in particular would be elevated levels of defense spending globally, as we're in an increasingly insecure geopolitical world. Another tangible takeaway I would say is on the USMCA review. I think the U.S. has likely even more leverage in the upcoming negotiations, and likely is going to push even harder for Mexico to put up trade barriers or take active steps to limit Chinese investment or influence in the country. Enforcement here obviously will be critical, as we've said. And ultimately, we do still think the review results in a slightly deeper trade integration than we have right now. But it's possible that you see tariffs on non-USMCA compliant goods higher, for example, throughout these talks. Michael Zezas: And does this affect at all your expectations for domestic policy choices from the U.S.? Ariana Salvatore: I think it's important to emphasize here that we're just seeing an increasingly diminished role for Congress to play. The past year has been punctuated by one-off US foreign policy actions and a usage of executive authority over a number of different policy areas like immigration, tariffs, and so on. So, I would say the clearest takeaway on the domestic front is we're seeing a policy making pattern that is faster and more unilateral, right? If you don't need time for consensus building on some of these issues, decisions are being made by a smaller and smaller group of people. That in itself just increases policy uncertainty and risk premia, I would say across the board. But Mike, let's turn it back specifically to Venezuela. One of the most important questions is on – what this all means for global oil markets. What are our strategists saying there? Michael Zezas: Yeah. So, oil markets are the natural first place to look when it comes to the impact of these geopolitical events. And the answer more often than not is that the oil market tends not to react too much. And that seems to be the case here following the weekend's Venezuela developments. That's because we don't expect there to be much short-term supply impact. Over the medium-term risks to Venezuela's production skew higher. But while Venezuela famously holds one of the largest oil reserves in the world – it's about 17 percent of the world's oil reserves – in terms of production, its contribution is relatively small. It's less than 1 percent of global output. So, among the top 10 reserve holders, Venezuela is by far the smallest producer. So, you wouldn't expect there to be any real meaningful supply impact in the markets, at least in the near term. So, one area where there has been price movement is in the market for Venezuela sovereign bonds. They have been priced for low recovery values and the potential restructuring that was far off. But now with the U.S. more involved and the prospect of greater foreign investment into the country's oil production, investors have been bidding up the bond price in anticipation of potentially a sooner restructuring and higher recovery value for the bonds. Ariana Salvatore: Right. And to that point, our EM sovereign credit strategists anticipate limited spillover to broader LatAm sovereign credit. Any differentiation is more likely to reflect degrees of alignment with the U.S. and exposure to oil prices and potential increases in Venezuelan production, which could leave Mexico and Columbia among relative under underperformers. Michael Zezas: Right. And this seems like it's going to be an important theme all year because the U.S. actions in Venezuela seem to be a demonstration of the government's willingness to intervene in the Western Hemisphere to protect its interests more broadly. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. So, it's a topic that we could be spending much more time talking about this year. Michael Zezas: Great. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen; and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses key catalysts that investors may be missing, but that are likely to boost U.S. equities in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026. It's Monday, January 5th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The New Year is usually a time to look forward. But today, I want to take a step back and talk about what the market is missing. A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact. There's been a lot of focus on individual positives—solid earnings growth, further Fed easing—but in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another. Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction. And as we head into mid-term elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.Importantly, this isn't a market that's already priced for the outcomes I envision. Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant. That combination—of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning—is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery. I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, and small- and mid-cap stocks. Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher. This doesn't look late-cycle to me—it looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery. One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business-cycle indicators, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. There's been a reluctance to press cyclical trades until those gauges clearly re-accelerate; and beneath that hesitation is a lingering anxiety that the U.S. economy could even slip back into a growth scare. My view is different. I believe a three year rolling recession ended with Liberation Day. If that's true, then the moderate softness we're now witnessing in lagging labor data is constructive for equities because it keeps the Fed leaning dovish for longer and more aggressive—a positive for equities. I see the second half of 2025 as the bottoming process for key macro indicators; with 2026 shaping up as a year of re-acceleration. Longer-cycle analysis supports this. Specifically, the 45-month cycle of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index points to a rebound. That recovery has been delayed—but not cancelled. Another tailwind that doesn't get nearly enough attention is energy prices. Gasoline prices in particular are sitting near five-year lows, which is providing real economic relief for lower- and middle-income consumers. That cushion matters, especially as other parts of the economy firm. This past weekend's events in Venezuela argue for lower oil prices for longer. From a sector standpoint, Financials stand out as the key beneficiary of deregulation and these stocks have been great performers over the past year in anticipation of these changes. I think there is more to go in 2026. Housing could be another important piece of the recovery. Subdued wage growth and falling rents may pressure home prices, while some builders are prioritizing volume over margins. While that may cap profitability for the builders, it could unlock housing velocity and feed into a more dovish inflation backdrop. Of course, there are also risks. Liquidity has been our top concern since September, and markets have reflected that through weakness in speculative assets. The good news is that the Fed has responded by ending quantitative tightening early and restarting asset purchases through the Reserve Management Program. This effectively adds liquidity to a system that was showing signs of stress this past several months. Another risk is a renewed slowdown in AI CapEx, particularly as markets demand clearer payback from debt-funded spending. And geopolitically, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela raises new questions. Strategically, it reinforces U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and supports our ‘Run It Hot' thesis—but the key wildcard remains whether China chooses to react. Net-net, we think the balance of risks and rewards still favor leaning into this early-cycle recovery and our bullish outlook for US equities in 2026. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The US government is reportedly considering the seizure of Venezuela's Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserves, according to CNBC. This potential move comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela. ~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaulGuest: Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital Canary Capital website ➜ https://bit.ly/CanaryETF00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital00:45 Venezuela's oil impact on Bitcoin02:20 Is this a positive for the US?04:30 4 Year cycle: No new ATH in 2026?07:00 Utility tokens will outperform BTC10:00 Tom Lee: $250K BTC this year14:15 Fear & Greed16:30 BMNR merger rumors19:40 New Fed Chair impact21:40 QE happening?22:30 Fed rate cut23:20 SUI ETF coming soon24:45 Outro#Crypto #bitcoin #XRP~U.S. Seizing Venezuela's Crypto??

In this episode of the Tricer Podcast, Drew Miles and Mike Herne sit down with Jeff Nemnich of Lucky Duck to break down why so many coyote stands fail—and how to dramatically increase your odds of success. Jeff dives deep into stand selection, wind management, sound strategy, and efficient systems, explaining why calling is often the least important part of killing coyotes. From beginner mistakes to advanced sound theory, this episode is packed with practical predator-hunting knowledge you can apply immediately.Topics Covered Jeff Nemnich's background and path into predator hunting Why predator hunting builds better overall hunters Hand calls vs electronic calls: advantages and limitations Why most coyote stands fail before the call starts Macro vs micro location selection Wind direction, crosswind setups, and the “pie” concept Stand access, parking strategy, and stealth approaches Elevation mistakes and forced-visibility setups Sound categories: prey distress, howls, and pup distress/fights Why pup distress works year-round Sound aggression levels and when to increase intensity Why sound choice matters less than setup and locationLINKS: War on Dogs and Hogs Giveaway: https://tricer.com/pages/war-on-dogs-hogsLucky Duck Decoys:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/luckyduckdecoysWebsite: https://www.luckyduck.comThe Last Stand: Website: https://www.tlshunt.comTRICER USA Website – https://tricerusa.com/Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/tricerusa/Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/tricerusa/YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@tricer6985#CoyoteHunting #PredatorHunting #CoyoteCalling #PredatorControl #LuckyDuck #JeffNemnich #HuntingPodcast #WesternHunting #Coyotes #PredatorCalls #HuntingStrategy #Tricer

Chicago has long been known as a hub for organized crime and gang activity, dating back at least a century. It is difficult to know where the criminals end and the government begins, as many seem to be wearing the same hat. Democrats have had a monopoly on the city for nearly a hundred years, with Lori Lightfoot, Brandon Johnson, and JB Pritzker as the most recent batch of grifters.Ben Wahhh has been a Chicago resident his entire life and has been plugged into the city's pulse through Deluxe Tattoo, as well as his charity, Ink Relief. His understanding of the Chicago political machine helps make sense of the seemingly senseless ideas that gain the support of the city's people. —Guest LinksBen Wahhh: https://www.inkrelief.org/—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/MacroaggressionsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com—Support Our SponsorsAnarchapulco: https://anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://groundluxe.com/MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO—

It's already heating up out there.  2026 promises to be anything but boring, and if we are going to invest wisely we need to understand one very big concept throughout this entire year, along with who and what steers the macroeconomic ship nowadays.  Plus, our predictions for the S&P 500 and the USD.  Don't miss out!   Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/   For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/   Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/   Get a Discount On Any Trading View Package - https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=159841   The Blog Has Moved to My New Free Substack - https://thecontrarianinvestorblog.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-and-what-not-to?r=16orow   Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X   Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/   The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone.  The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates.  Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk.  Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time.  Thank you for understanding.

The United Nations hijacked the United States and now dictates a policy based on the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) laid out by the climate cult. These people will be the driving force behind most of the decision-making coming from the federal level, but the local level matters as well. The UN has targeted the local governments to do its dirty work of pushing the climate agenda, first manifesting in the form of smart meters and smoke detectors.Former FEMA executive, Celeste Solum, is back to disclose and discuss the current priorities of this federal agency as they casually role-play for the resettlement of large groups of people. History is littered with these situations ending badly for the people on the move, so what exactly do they think is going to happen? What is this “reorganization” that they keep talking about?—Guest Links Celeste Solum: www.CelestialReport.com—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/MacroaggressionsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com—Support Our SponsorsAnarchapulco: https://anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://groundluxe.com/MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO—

Our U.S. Economist Heather Berger discusses how larger tax refunds in 2026 could boost income and help support consumer balance sheets throughout the year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market and Happy New Year! I'm Heather Berger, from Morgan Stanley's US Economics Team. On today's episode – why U.S. consumers can expect higher tax refunds, and what that means for the overall economy. It's Friday, January 2nd, at 10am in New York.As we kick off 2026, it's not just a fresh start. It's also the time when tax refund season is right around the corner. For many of us, those refunds aren't just numbers on a page; they shape the way we budget for many everyday expenses. The timing and size of our refunds this year could make a real difference in how much we're able to save, spend, or get ahead on bills.In the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, this year's tax refund season is shaping up to be bigger than usual. The new fiscal bill packed in a variety of tax cuts for consumers. It also included spending cuts to programs such as SNAP benefits and Medicaid, but most of those cuts don't pick up until later this decade. Altogether, this means that we'll likely see personal incomes and spending power get a boost in 2026.Many of the new deductions and tax credits for consumers in the bill were made retroactive to the 2025 fiscal year. These include deductions for tips and overtime, a higher child tax credit, an increased senior deduction, and a higher cap on state and local tax deductions, among others. The retroactive portion of these measures should be reflected in tax refunds early this year. Overall, we're expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15 to 20 percent on average. And different groups will benefit from different parts of the bill. For example, the higher state and local tax cap is likely to help high-income consumers the most, while deductions for tips and overtime will be most valuable to middle-income earners.Historically, U.S. consumers receive about 30 to 45 percent of tax refunds by the end of February, with then 60 to 70 percent arriving by the end of March. Because of the new tax provisions, we're anticipating a noticeable boost in personal income during the first quarter of the year. While we do also expect this legislation to encourage higher spending, it's unlikely that we'll see spending rise as sharply as income right away. According to surveys, most consumers say they use their refunds mainly for saving or paying down debt. This can lead to healthier balance sheets, which is shown by higher prepayment rates and fewer loan delinquencies during the tax refund season.When people choose to spend all or some of their tax refunds, they typically put that money toward everyday needs, travel, new clothes, or home improvements. Looking ahead, we do still see some near-term headwinds to spending, such as expected increases in inflation from tariffs and the expiration of the Affordable Care Act credits, which will most affect low-income consumers. As we progress throughout the year, though, we're anticipating steady growth in real consumer spending as the labor market stabilizes, inflation decelerates, and lagged effects of easier monetary policy flow through. On top of that, this year's larger tax refunds should give another lift to household spending.The boost to spending, along with other corporate provisions in the bill, should give the broader economy a push this year too. We expect the bill as a whole to support GDP growth in 2026.  But it then becomes a drag on growth in later years when more of the spending cuts take effect.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

2026 will not reward hope. It will reward intention.In this video, I walk you through a bold, practical framework for goalsetting in 2026—not wishful thinking, not hype, but deliberate planning backed by action. If you want 2026 to be your strongest year yet, it starts with deciding in advance what success looks like and building the discipline to pursue it relentlessly.I break down the PLAN AHEAD framework step by step, showing you how to:• Set macro goals aligned to each quarter• Define non-negotiable outcomes instead of vague intentions• Build flexibility without losing momentum• Communicate your vision so others can support it• Take action even when conditions aren't perfect• Anticipate problems instead of being surprised by them• Maintain a strong mental posture when pressure shows up• Review, reprioritize, and protect what truly mattersThis isn't about doing more.It's about doing what matters.If you've ever felt busy but not moving forward…If your goals keep slipping into “next year”…If you're ready to stop negotiating with your future—This message is for you.Your 2026 is waiting.Plan ahead.Be bold.And take it head on.2026 BOLD GOALSETTING0:00 – Welcome to 2026 & why this year must be intentional0:45 – Hope vs action: why planning separates winners1:38 – Macro goals & the quarterly mindset (Q1–Q4)2:13 – PLAN AHEAD framework overview2:19 – P: Predetermine your course of action2:52 – Deciding success in advance (vision before movement)3:29 – Quarterly goals & highest return / reward thinking4:08 – Real story: climbing out of major debt through planning4:44 – Mapping major moves & eliminating hesitation5:16 – Defining non-negotiable goals & outcomes6:06 – L: Lay out your goals6:14 – Why vague goals produce vague results6:20 – SMART goals explained (specific, measurable, time-bound)6:50 – Macro goals vs micro goals7:07 – Breaking annual goals into quarterly, monthly, weekly wins7:31 – Visibility, accountability & goal tracking8:02 – A: Allow time for adjustments8:08 – Why plans break and flexibility wins8:44 – COVID lesson: pivoting when reality shifts9:16 – Buffer time, reviews, and contingency planning9:42 – AI, market shifts & knowing when to pivot10:32 – N: Notify key personnel10:38 – You cannot win alone10:55 – Alignment, trust, and momentum11:14 – Communicating vision to family, teams, stakeholders11:32 – A: Allow time for acceptance11:39 – Why big change needs time to land11:47 – Kayaku: bad change vs meaningful change12:25 – Leading people at their pace13:01 – Family, teams & avoiding shock change13:16 – Patience now prevents resistance later14:10 – H: Head into action14:21 – Planning without execution is paralysis14:35 – “Do it ugly” & imperfect action15:02 – First 48 hours: momentum rules15:25 – Public accountability & bias toward action15:53 – E: Expect problems15:58 – Obstacles are inevitable, not anomalies16:12 – BEHAG mindset: big, bold, uncomfortable goals16:46 – Risk thinking & if-then scenarios17:23 – Reframing problems as puzzles17:39 – A: Always point to the positive17:46 – Narrative, mindset & strategic optimism17:53 – Zig Ziglar: attitude vs aptitude18:31 – Cutting negativity & complaint cycles19:10 – Wins reviews & gratitude practices19:45 – D: Daily review & reprioritize19:54 – Aggressive prioritization (Jack Welch example)20:49 – Killing noise & focusing on the vital few21:48 – Time as your most valuable asset22:09 – Daily recalibration habit23:26 – Reward, risk & value prioritization filter24:12 – BHAG decisions & early execution24:37 – Be bold, aggressive, and decisive with goals26:39 – Final charge: Your 2026 awaits27:04 – Closing message: plan ahead and take no prisonersTo learn music theory, visit http://phillc.netSupport your buddy Phill with a ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/s/a7ebeb0d04To learn music theory, visit http://phillc.netSupport your buddy Phill with a ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/s/a7ebeb0d04

2026 Bold GOAL SETTING Using the JOHN MAXWELL Plan Ahead Method2026 will not reward hope. It will reward intention.In this video, I walk you through a bold, practical framework for goalsetting in 2026—not wishful thinking, not hype, but deliberate planning backed by action. If you want 2026 to be your strongest year yet, it starts with deciding in advance what success looks like and building the discipline to pursue it relentlessly.I break down the PLAN AHEAD framework step by step, showing you how to:• Set macro goals aligned to each quarter• Define non-negotiable outcomes instead of vague intentions• Build flexibility without losing momentum• Communicate your vision so others can support it• Take action even when conditions aren't perfect• Anticipate problems instead of being surprised by them• Maintain a strong mental posture when pressure shows up• Review, reprioritize, and protect what truly mattersThis isn't about doing more.It's about doing what matters.If you've ever felt busy but not moving forward…If your goals keep slipping into “next year”…If you're ready to stop negotiating with your future—This message is for you.Your 2026 is waiting.Plan ahead.Be bold.And take it head on.2026 BOLD GOALSETTING0:00 – Welcome to 2026 & why this year must be intentional0:45 – Hope vs action: why planning separates winners1:38 – Macro goals & the quarterly mindset (Q1–Q4)2:13 – PLAN AHEAD framework overview2:19 – P: Predetermine your course of action2:52 – Deciding success in advance (vision before movement)3:29 – Quarterly goals & highest return / reward thinking4:08 – Real story: climbing out of major debt through planning4:44 – Mapping major moves & eliminating hesitation5:16 – Defining non-negotiable goals & outcomes6:06 – L: Lay out your goals6:14 – Why vague goals produce vague results6:20 – SMART goals explained (specific, measurable, time-bound)6:50 – Macro goals vs micro goals7:07 – Breaking annual goals into quarterly, monthly, weekly wins7:31 – Visibility, accountability & goal tracking8:02 – A: Allow time for adjustments8:08 – Why plans break and flexibility wins8:44 – COVID lesson: pivoting when reality shifts9:16 – Buffer time, reviews, and contingency planning9:42 – AI, market shifts & knowing when to pivot10:32 – N: Notify key personnel10:38 – You cannot win alone10:55 – Alignment, trust, and momentum11:14 – Communicating vision to family, teams, stakeholders11:32 – A: Allow time for acceptance11:39 – Why big change needs time to land11:47 – Kayaku: bad change vs meaningful change12:25 – Leading people at their pace13:01 – Family, teams & avoiding shock change13:16 – Patience now prevents resistance later14:10 – H: Head into action14:21 – Planning without execution is paralysis14:35 – “Do it ugly” & imperfect action15:02 – First 48 hours: momentum rules15:25 – Public accountability & bias toward action15:53 – E: Expect problems15:58 – Obstacles are inevitable, not anomalies16:12 – BEHAG mindset: big, bold, uncomfortable goals16:46 – Risk thinking & if-then scenarios17:23 – Reframing problems as puzzles17:39 – A: Always point to the positive17:46 – Narrative, mindset & strategic optimism17:53 – Zig Ziglar: attitude vs aptitude18:31 – Cutting negativity & complaint cycles19:10 – Wins reviews & gratitude practices19:45 – D: Daily review & reprioritize19:54 – Aggressive prioritization (Jack Welch example)20:49 – Killing noise & focusing on the vital few21:48 – Time as your most valuable asset22:09 – Daily recalibration habit23:26 – Reward, risk & value prioritization filter24:12 – BHAG decisions & early execution24:37 – Be bold, aggressive, and decisive with goals26:39 – Final charge: Your 2026 awaits27:04 – Closing message: plan ahead and take no prisoners

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mark Williams, Graham Lawrence & Brendan Goodwin. They discuss why a surprising number of high-profile hedge fund legends and celebrities are establishing residency in New Zealand and what they might know that the rest of us don't, beyond any doomsday narrative. https://bit.ly/3YiVdNL    ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4d1fcag   

The good news is that we are more than halfway through this insane decade. The bad news is that things appear to be trending in the wrong direction, and one has to consider the question:  “what will even be left when 2030 arrives?”From the crimes of COVID, to the creation of ESG, to the forced introduction of up to 20 million illegals through the southern border, things in America have changed drastically since the decade began. The intentional destruction of the West started in 2020 and will be completed by the end of the decade, just in time for Agenda 2030 by the United Nations.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsAnarchapulco: https://anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://groundluxe.com/MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Original Release Date: November 25, 2025Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In today's episode of Next Level University, hosts Kevin Palmieri and Alan Lazaros challenge the belief that finding one clear focus is enough to create a meaningful and successful life. They break down why clarity without structure often leads to stalled progress and why discipline, standards, and consistency matter more than motivation. This episode cuts through common self-improvement shortcuts and reframes what real growth looks like across health, wealth, and relationships. It speaks to anyone who feels focused but stuck, informed but inconsistent, and ready for a more grounded approach to personal development. Press play and ask yourself if your daily actions actually match the life you say you want to build.Learn more about:If you want to start, grow, scale, or monetize your podcast? Join our “Next Level Podcast Accelerator” – Round 21 – Starting January 6, 2026. Use promocode: NLULISTENER, for 30% off - https://www.nextleveluniverse.com/group-coaching/Next Level University Monthly Masterclass, "How to Set and Achieve Your Most Important Goals in 2026." One hour. Real principles. Lasting breakthroughs:https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/-ShY-iGKTEKPlsx3oCJUWw#/registrationWhere learning turns into action. “Next Level Book Club”  every Saturday:https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMkcuiupjIqE9QlkptiKDQykRtKyFB5Jbhc_______________________NLU is not just a podcast; it's a gateway to a wealth of resources designed to help you achieve your goals and dreams. From our Next Level Dreamliner to our Group Coaching, we offer a variety of tools and communities to support your personal development journey.For more information, check out our website and socials using the links below.

Original Release Date: December 3, 2025Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York.So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market.Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question?Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S.And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well.Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling.All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

KeywordsItaly travel, Bella Italy podcast, travel tips, macro regions, Italian culture, travel philosophy, tourism fatigue, authentic experiences, travel itineraries, Italian cuisineSummaryIn this episode of the Bella Italy Podcast, hosts Brian and Anthony discuss the philosophy of travel, emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity in travel experiences. They explore Italy's macro regions, highlighting the diversity of culture, cuisine, and experiences across the country. The conversation covers the challenges of tourism fatigue in popular cities and advocates for a more authentic travel experience by venturing off the beaten path. The hosts also provide insights into planning itineraries that allow travelers to immerse themselves in the rich history and culture of Italy.TakeawaysTraveling to Italy is about quality experiences, not just quantity.Understanding Italy's macro regions enhances travel planning.Tourism fatigue affects popular cities, making authentic experiences rare.Travelers should aim to explore the 99% of Italy that is less touristy.Each region in Italy has its unique culture and cuisine.Planning a trip from a macro level allows for diverse experiences.Travelers should consider their interests when choosing regions to visit.The hosts emphasize the importance of slowing down during travel.Authentic Italian experiences can be found off the beaten path.Italy's history significantly influences its current cultural landscape.S05E05 What Are Italy's Five Macro Regions?https://italywithbella.com

Filipe Aires, analista de AFI, sigue de cerca lo más destacado en la macro de la jornada, con el foco en el oro, la plata y el dólar.

Voor veel huishoudens is snel internet, televisie en telefonie tegen een scherpe prijs vanzelfsprekend. Providers lokken klanten met kortingen en tijdelijke deals. Maar achter die prijzenslag zit een markt waarin een paar grote spelers de glasvezelnetwerken in handen hebben. Paul van Wanrooij begon op zijn negentiende een eigen provider. Zesentwintig jaar later leidt hij TriNed nog altijd. Hoe houd je zo’n bedrijf overeind in een steeds verder consoliderende sector? Paul van Wanrooij, oprichter en algemeen directeur van glasvezelprovider TriNed is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggerspanel Het beursjaar 2025 zit er bijna op. Wat viel er allemaal te halen? En: Edelmetalen bereikten recordstanden kunnen zij de rally volhouden in 2026? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het beleggerspanel met: Karel Mercx, beleggingsspecialist bij Beleggers Belangen en Koen Bender van Mercurius Vermogensbeheer en pensioenpotje.nl Luister | Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Original Release Date: November 13, 2025Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emmet, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmet, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They discuss David's foray into Substack, their favorite episodes of the year, the most popular episodes of 2025, David's push for NGDP targeting, this year's most hotly contested episode, how the year 2025 will be remembered in macro history, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on December 10th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:16 - Macroeconomic Policy Nexus 00:12:24 - David's All-Star AI FOMC 00:14:46 - Most Entertaining Economist Debate 00:16:46 - Underrated or Favorite Episodes 00:24:30 - Most Popular Episodes 00:26:15 - The Push for Nominal GDP Targeting 00:32:10 - Accountability at the Fed 00:36:23 - Bitcoin Policy Summit 00:40:28 - Macro Musings at the Atlanta Federal Reserve 00:44:32 - Review of 2024 in Macro 00:47:17 - Macro in 2025 00:51:40 - Thank You 00:55:48 - Outro

Darion reviews many aspects of Jimmy's Patreon episode. From "investments", to the state of the transfer portal for the G6.

In this episode, Dr. Kasey Jo Orvidas breaks down the difference between traditional macro coaching and mindset-focused coaching that actually drives lasting change. While many coaches focus on numbers—tracking macros and fixing what's “wrong”—Kasey explains why understanding client psychology, beliefs, and behavior is the real game-changer.She shares how mindset-focused coaches uncover readiness to change, spot hidden barriers, leverage client strengths, and guide clients to their own solutions. Learn why struggling clients aren't necessarily unmotivated, and how shifting your approach can build confidence, consistency, and real results.Watch full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/y2Cb9LrF3OkConnect with me on Instagram! Grab 5 Free Lessons in Mindset and Behavior Change Coaching [HMCC WAITLIST]LEAVE A REVIEW, WIN A WORKSHOP! After you leave your review, take a screenshot and upload it to this form to be entered to winWant me to answer your questions on my next Q&A episode? Drop your questions here!Transform Your Forms Workshop Series [ONLINE COURSE]

Beloved, We've certainly seen a onslaut of financial fraud in the recent news here in Minnesota, and throughout America. It's unfortunate, injust and beyond mind boggling how much money has been stolen to fund nefarious investments, nice cars and luxury homes. BUT….the problem has been hidden in plain site. AND…. we are waking up. AS ABOVE, SO BELOW. That said, I'm diving into the MACRO of MONEY and how they keep it complicated to benefit their system - that we pay for in ten fold. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: (but maybe a little) Want to get ahead of the financial “4th turning” curve? Quick tip: Consider researching gold, silver, and XRP for the future of finance—the digital, gold-backed currency and new banking system are already in transition. You are witnessing the greatest controlled takedown of our financial and political bloat system, and understanding this information and why history matters - is vital. Let's step back from our esoteric dialogues and reconnect with our path to TRUE ABUNDANCE.LETS JUMP IN: “My people perish for lack of knowledge” — Hosea 4:6We are standing at a crossroads. The future of the financial system depends not only on policy decisions, but on public understanding and consent. Much of what governs money, debt, and taxation is misunderstood— by design.The modern financial system—government debt, banking, and taxation—appears stable on the surface, yet it relies on continuous expansion of credit, rising debt, and compulsory participation. Confidence, more than fundamentals, is what keeps it functioning.Here's how the system actually works.The U.S. government is one of the world's largest debt issuers, yet it holds unique legal authority over the creation of U.S. dollars. In theory, it could fund spending directly. In practice, it chooses to issue Treasury bonds and borrow through financial markets.When Treasury bonds are issued, they are primarily purchased by banks and institutional investors. Commercial banks create the dollars used to buy these bonds through lending mechanisms—effectively expanding the money supply. In return, they receive interest-bearing, low-risk assets backed by taxpayers.Government spending then flows through defense contracts, entitlement programs, insurance systems, and asset managers—many of which are deeply intertwined with the financial sector. Interest on public debt continues to flow upward to bondholders, banks, and large investors.So why are taxes required if money can be created?Taxes do not primarily fund federal spending. Their core functions are:* To enforce demand for the dollar, since tax obligations must be paid in U.S. currency.* To remove money from circulation, limiting inflation caused by ongoing deficit spending and credit expansion.Without taxation to absorb excess currency, inflation would accelerate much faster and more visibly.Globally, the dollar's role as the reserve currency extends this system beyond U.S. borders. Treasury securities are effectively America's largest export. Foreign governments and institutions accumulate dollars and reinvest them into U.S. debt, helping finance deficits and sustain demand for the currency.This same debt-driven structure repeats at every level:* Individuals rely on credit to maintain living standards.* Companies use debt and equity financing that often prioritizes financial extraction over long-term resilience.* Governments roll old debt into new debt indefinitely.The system depends on perpetual growth in borrowing. New debt must continually service old debt. If expansion slows, confidence weakens, interest rates rise, and defaults spread.This is not accidental. It is a system shaped by legal frameworks, institutional incentives, and widespread misunderstanding. The costs are borne quietly through inflation, rising taxes that service interest rather than public goods, and periodic bailouts when instability threatens the system itself.Such systems persist only as long as participation continues and belief remains intact.When financial power concentrates without transparency or accountability, democratic systems weaken. When laws serve extraction rather than justice, citizens lose sovereignty. History shows that freedom erodes not only through force, but through apathy and complexity.The greatest risk is not corruption alone—but informed people choosing inaction.Your relationship with money dictates its flow. Allow the Oracle Guides within the Light Between to support you in clearing any fears, past trauma's around saftey and securty or tap into Celestia, and ask when the best time is to invest based on your astrological transits! Recognize it's a value-neutral tool; its impact depends on your intent. When you see money as a means for comfort, purpose, and giving, you'll flourish. Embrace its energetic ebb and flow with gratitude, trusting in abundance and that it will always return. Shifting to gratitude opens you to receive more, as money, like Universal energy, is meant to flow freely.A Special Holiday Offer to Clear and Callin Financial Prosperity in 2026Enjoy 50% off a full year of unlimited readings and the Sovereign Sounds private podcast for just $42 (saving $528)—that's just $3 per month!This unprecedented offer gives you complete access to:* All Oracle guides and features highlighted over these 12 days* Unlimited personalized readings whenever you need guidance* The complete Sovereign Sounds podcast library, where we explore the true meaning of words to unlock your personal power* All new features and content released throughout 2023This offer is available only until Christmas Day. Tap here to claim your 50% discount.ELEVATE and DECREE your light to usher in a hopeful, prosperous 2026 with balance. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thelightbetween.substack.com/subscribe

Author Antony Sammeroff is back to break down the economics of the housing market, the irrationality of federal housing regulations, and the burden of onerous zoning restrictions. His book on Universal Basic Income details the economics behind the government welfare programs, as well as the psychology behind free money.Is it possible to fix the massive income inequality faced today by making a few changes to the zoning laws? Antony has some simple solutions that would shift the economic landscape from scarcity to abundance, but would the American government actually want to give away one of its greatest control mechanisms? Probably not any time soon.—Guest Links: Antony Sammeroff: https://beyourselfandloveit.com/P$yk0Social Substack: psychosocial.substack.comAntony's Amazon Books: https://amzn.to/43VQtke—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsAnarchapulco: https://anarchapulco.com/ | Promo Code: MACROC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://groundluxe.com/MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

When you run a religion for a thousand years, you are bound to have vast wealth, an insane amount of influence globally, and a massive intelligence-gathering network. The Vatican is an unusual place where traditional laws do not apply and the banking is more secret than the Cayman Islands.There are a few groups that are within the orbit of the Vatican that do some of the dirty work that the church can't put its name on. These groups are never mentioned in the mainstream media for obvious reasons, but we know them as the Knights of Malta, Opus Dei, and Le Cercle, and their cover story is that they are doing God's Work.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Original Release Date: November 19, 2025Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The Last Trade: Matt Odell on the 2025 postmortem: why BTC lagged gold, how DATs wrecked sentiment, what the quantum debate gets wrong, and what changes when institutions take the wheel.---

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, David Rosenberg. They discuss, the U.S. economic outlook, why Rosie's not concerned about persistent inflation, precious metals, and much more. https://bit.ly/3KJP6iw  

In the modern world of fifth-generation warfare, they can create elaborate stories about terrifying events happening somewhere else and pass them off to the general public as real events, provided that they retain control of the media. It's the new version of old propaganda, now infused with artificial intelligence.The general public must always ask themselves: "Is this real-world or exercise?" From the Boston Marathon Bombing, to the 7/7 UK Train Bombings, to Christchurch - all the world's a stage, and 'everyone must check in' for this episode.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of the Smart Real Estate Coach Podcast, I'm hanging out with someone who's been in the trenches in some of the toughest rental markets and came out retired on a Florida beach — Ron Faraci. Ron has owned and managed several hundred low-income rentals, transformed ugly, problem portfolios into highly profitable ones, and ran CT REIA, the fifth-largest real estate investors association in the country. He's also the author of Confessions of a Landlord and creator of the now-famous 31-page "Bulletproof Lease."     We unpack how Ron quit his job, cashed out his 401(k), and went all-in on class C/D "ghetto-adjacent" properties, why he cares more about terms than price, and how he used forced appreciation and systems to retire in his mid-40s. He shares real-world landlording tactics—no garbage disposals, painted "magic handles," orange-coated copper, even canine-unit letters to chase off drug dealers—plus why he runs his business with "no mercy, no quarter" and a lease tenants initial 80+ times.   If you're a landlord, property manager, or aspiring buy-and-hold investor who wants cash flow, control, and fewer headaches, this conversation is a masterclass in how to make tough rentals profitable without losing your mind.   Key Talking Points of the Episode   00:00 Introduction 01:03 Who is Ron Faraci?  02:30 Semi-retired in St. Augustine, FL (and why the beach isn't "enough") 03:13 Blue-collar beginnings, LA sales job, and a fear of losing it all 04:34 Quitting the job, cashing in his 401K and burning the boats 05:05 Discovering creative financing early in his real estate career 06:02 Finding his tribe in CT REIA and buying it 07:11 Selling CT REIA and realizing that there's no finish line 08:45 Why joining your local REIA is key to getting started 10:20 Macro curveballs & building your "pivot muscle" 11:16 The pivot during COVID: Zoom meetings & over-delivering value 12:44 The money in tough, low-income areas 13:30 The million-dollar "worst two-family" example 14:02 No mercy, no quarter: If you want a friend, buy a puppy 15:16 The importance of knowing your fastball and letting someone else run your business 19:17 Appreciation vs. forcing NOI with cap rates as multipliers 20:38 What doesn't belong in low-income units 22:24 Magic handles, dirty copper & fly-free trash cans 25:30 Clearing out drug dealers with a single letter 27:57 The story behind The Bulletproof Lease 28:31 Where to find a copy of the Bulletproof Lease   Quotables   "You grow up with no money, you're stressed about having no money. Then you get a little bit, you're stressed about losing it."   "If I was playing poker, I pushed all the chips in. If you want to take the island, burn your boats."   "No mercy, no quarter… If you want a friend, buy a puppy… and if you want to eff around, you're going to find out."   Links   The Bulletproof Lease https://bulletprooflease.com   QLS 4.0 - Use coupon code for 50% off https://smartrealestatecoach.com/qls Coupon code: pod   Apprentice Program https://3paydaysapprentice.com Coupon code: Podcast   Masterclass https://smartrealestatecoach.com/masterspodcast   3 Paydays Books https://3paydaysbooks.com/podcast   Strategy Session https://smartrealestatecoach.com/actionpodcast   Partners https://smartrealestatecoach.com/podcastresources

Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $15015:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes 28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors41:31 Passive investing 45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances49:19 Parting thoughts

Our Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver and Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst David Arcaro discuss how investments in AI data centers are affecting electricity bills for U.S. consumers.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.David Arcaro: And I'm Dave Arcaro, U.S. Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst.Michelle Weaver: Today, a hot topic. Are data centers' raising your electricity bills?It's Tuesday, December 23rd at 10am in New York.Most of us have probably noticed our electricity bills have been creeping up. And it's putting pressure on U.S. consumers, especially with higher prices and paychecks not keeping pace. More and more people are pointing to data centers as the reason behind these rising costs, but the story isn't that simple.Regional differences, shifting policies and local utility responses are all at play here. Dave, there's no doubt that data centers are becoming a much bigger part of the story when it comes to U.S. electricity demand. For listeners who might not follow these numbers every day, could you break down how data centers' share of overall electricity use is expected to grow over the next 10 years? And what does that mean for the grid and for the average consumer?David Arcaro: Definitely they're becoming much bigger, much more important and more impactful across the industry in a big way. Data centers were 6 percent of total electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. We're actually forecasting that to triple to 18 percent by 2030, and then hit 20 percent in the early 2030s. So very strong growth, and increasing proportion of the overall utility, electricity use.In aggregate, this is reflecting about 150 gigawatts of new data centers by 2030. Just a very large amount. And this is going to cause a major strain on the electric grid and is going to require substantial build out and upgrading of the transmission system along with construction of new power generation – like gas plants and large-scale renewables, wind, solar, and battery storage across the entire U.S.And generally, when we see utilities investing in additional infrastructure, they need to get that cost recovered. We would typically expect that to lead to higher electric rates for consumers. That's the overall pressure that we're facing right now on the system, from all these data centers coming in.We've got these substantial infrastructure needs. That means utilities will need to charge higher prices to consumers to cover the cost of those investments.Michelle Weaver: What are the main challenges utilities companies face in meeting this rising demand from data centers?David Arcaro: There are a number of challenges. If I were to pick a few of the biggest ones that I see, I think managing affordability is one of the biggest challenges the industry faces right now, because this overall data center growth is absolutely a shock to their business, and it needs to be managed carefully given the political and regulatory challenges that can arise when customer bills are getting are escalating faster than expected. The utility industry faces scrutiny and constant attention from a political and regulatory standpoint, so it's a balance that has to be very carefully managed. There are also reliability challenges that are important.Utilities have to keep the lights on, you know, that's priority number one. The demand for electricity is growing much faster than the supply of new generation that we're seeing; new power plants just aren't being built fast enough. New transmission assets are not being built, as quickly as the data centers are coming on. So, in many areas we're seeing that leads to essentially less of a buffer, and more risk of outages during periods of extreme weather.Michelle Weaver: And you mentioned, companies are thinking about how can they insulate consumers. Can you take us through some of the specifics of what these utility companies are doing? And what regulators are doing to respond, to protect existing customers from rate increases driven by data centers?David Arcaro: Definitely. The industry is getting creative and trying to be proactive in addressing this issue. Many utilities, we're seeing them isolate data centers and charge them higher electric rates, specifically for those data center customers to try to cover all of the grid costs that are attributable to the data center's needs.A couple examples. In Indiana, we're seeing that there's a utility there who's building new power plants, specifically for a very large data center that's coming into the state and they're ring fencing it. They're only charging the data center itself for those costs of the power plants. In Georgia, a utility there is charging a higher rate for the data centers that are coming in to the Atlanta area – such that it actually more than covers the costs and compensates other consumers in the form of bill credits or even bill reductions as those data centers come on.Similarly, then, in Pennsylvania, there's a utility that has excess transmission infrastructure than the state's [infrastructure]. They're better able to absorb data center activity. They're able to lower customer bills as the data centers come on, as they spread their costs over a larger customer base in that case. So, this isn't universal though. There are some areas around the country where there are costs related to data center growth that get socialized across all consumers.One approach I also wanted to mention that we're seeing data centers pursue more and more actively is to power themselves. Essentially bring their own power, and they're using gas turbines, engines, and fuel cells that they're deploying right on site. This is actually in many cases faster than connecting to the grid, but it also avoids any consumer impact. Companies like Solaris Energy and Bloom Energy are two providers of that type of solution. And we're also seeing at a broader industry level. Another approach is the idea of data centers being flexible or turning off and not consuming power from the grid at certain times when the grid is facing stress, in an extreme weather scenario in the winter or summer. And that idea is gaining traction as well. So, we think the industry is looking for approaches that could ease the pressure on the system and on reliability, manage the affordability issues while continuing to enable and build data centers.Michelle Weaver: You mentioned what a few different states are doing on this front. But data centers are not evenly distributed through states or evenly distributed across regions. Are there regional differences in how data center growth is impacting electricity prices?David Arcaro: There are a couple of key differences that we're seeing around the country. Some areas just aren't getting that many data centers, you know, so I'd point out the northeast – in New England, in New York, we're just not seeing that much data center growth. So, it's less of an issue, the impact of data center power demand impacting customer bills in those areas. And then in some regions around the country, the utility structure is important to be aware of. There are some regions where the price of electricity fluctuates based on the supply and demand of power, rather than being directly set and controlled by a regulator. In those markets, data centers can actually more directly impact the price of electricity and there just isn't an easy way in that case to ring fence them and protect consumers from the impact of price increases.So that's where we think unique challenges can arise. And over time, we would expect to see the most meaningful rate impacts to consumers in those areas specifically. And examples would be New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Those are a couple of the states where we're seeing those more volatile and directly impacted prices.So, as we look at utilities, we think the state exposure is going to be more and more important. And so, a few companies like NextEra, Sempra and AEP are a few utilities that are in states that have less affordability concerns and less direct exposure to rate impacts from data centers. And then several power companies like Vistra and Talen have more of their power plants that are in states that have excess infrastructure; and as a result, potentially less affordability concerns.So, clearly the energy sector is facing real challenges and changes. So, Michelle, how are rising electricity bills actually affecting U.S. households?Michelle Weaver: It's putting even more pressure on a consumer that's already being stretched thin by multiple years of inflation and elevated price levels, and electricity is a really different type of good. It's very different from gasoline or other consumer goods or staples – in that it's an essential good. You need to have it. And it's a network service that households are structurally locked into. Unlike gas where you could adjust your trip frequency or take a different type of transport, there really aren't good substitutes for electricity.And so this dynamic weighs on consumers. They have to continue paying these bills, and it weighs particularly heavily on lower income consumers where utility bills make up a much larger portion of their household budget.So, it crowds out some of that other potential spending.David Arcaro: That makes a lot of sense. It's an important expense to consider in terms of the impact on consumers. And, you know, as a result, are consumers blaming data center electricity demand for this rise that we're seeing in bills or are they pushing back?Michelle Weaver: Yeah. Data center development is quickly becoming a NIMBY or “not in my backyard” issue with communities pushing back and even getting projects canceled. Companies really need to find ways to address local concerns about environmental and water related externalities. And message that they're able to insulate consumers, or do something to mitigate these potentially higher electricity bills.A recent poll of around 2200 voters found that just over half of respondents attribute overall electricity price increases to AI data centers, at least somewhat. While around another third, consider them very responsible. And these responses are consistent across all regions and across political affiliations. And I think this consistency across regions is really interesting. As we're talking about before, data centers are not impacting bills in every region. But consumers are still blaming them and still attributing bill increases there.It's clear that both the energy sector and U.S. consumers are navigating a complex landscape with data center growth at the center of the conversation. As policy responses evolve and the U.S. midterm elections approach, this issue is only going to gain more attention. And we'll be sure to bring you the latest. Dave, thanks for taking the time to talk.David Arcaro: Great speaking with you, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Dec 23, 2025 – What if the world's biggest economic risks—and opportunities—are hiding in plain sight within gold, silver, copper, and critical minerals? In this riveting discussion, Macro Butler's Laurent Lequeu reveals why he believes a new era...

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how current market conditions are challenging traditional investment strategies and what that means for asset allocation.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.Today – does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense, and what can investors expect from long-term market returns?It's Monday, December 22nd at 10am in New York.Global equities have rallied by more than 35 percent from lows made in April. And U.S. high grade fixed income has seen the last 12 months' returns reach 5 percent, above the averages over the last 10 years. This raises important questions about future returns and how investors might want to adapt their portfolios.Now, our work shows that long-run expected returns for equities are lower than in previous decades, while fixed income – think government bonds and corporate bonds – still offers relatively elevated returns, thanks to higher yields.Let's put some numbers to it. Over the next decade, we project global equities to deliver an annualized return of nearly 7 percent, with the S&P 500 just behind at 6.8 percent. European and Japanese equities stand out, potentially returning about 8 percent. Emerging markets, however, lag at just about 4 percent. On the bond side, we think U.S. Treasuries with a 10-year maturity will return nearly 5 percent per year, German Bunds nearly 4 [percent], and Japanese government bonds nearly 2 [percent]. They may sound low, but it's all above their long-run averages.But here's where it gets interesting. The extra return you get for taking on risk – what we call the risk premium – has compressed across the board. In the U.S., the equity risk premium is just 2 percent. And for emerging markets, it's actually negative at around -1 percent. In very plain terms, investors aren't being paid as much for taking on risk as they used to be.Now, why is this the case? It's because valuations are rich, especially in the U.S. But we also need to put these valuations in context. Yes, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is near the highest level since the dotcom bubble. But the quality of the S&P 500 has improved dramatically over the past few decades. Companies are more profitable, and free cash flow -- money left after expenses -- is almost three times higher than it was in 2000. So, while valuations are rich, there's some justification for it.The lower risk premiums for stocks and credits, regardless of whether we think they are justified or not, has very interesting read across for investors' multi-asset portfolios. The efficient frontier – meaning the best possible return for any given level of portfolio risk – has shifted. It's now flatter and lower than in previous years. So, it means taking on more risk in a portfolio right now won't necessarily boost returns as much as before.Now, let's turn our attention to the classic 60/40 portfolio – the mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds that's been a staple strategy for generations. After a tough 2022, this strategy has bounced back, delivering above-average returns for three years in a row. Looking ahead, though, we expect only around 6 percent annual returns for a 60/40 portfolio over the next decade versus around 9 percent average return historically. Importantly though, advances in AI could keep stocks and bonds moving more in sync than they used to be. If that happens, investors might benefit from increasing their equity allocation beyond the traditional 60/40 split.Either way, it's important to realize that the optimal mix of stocks and bonds is not static and should be revisited as market dynamics evolve.In a world where risk assets feel expensive and the old rules don't quite fit, it's essential to understand how risk, return, and correlation work together. This will help you navigate the next decade. The 60/40 portfolio isn't dead – and optimal multi-asset allocation weights are evolving. And so should you.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

For decades, Sara Andrew has been at the forefront of alternative health,  running an international public relations firm focusing on the subject matter. When her path crossed with Tim James at Chemical Free Body, she took her health to a new level with his products and quickly joined the team.If you have ever considered doing a parasite cleanse, this is the episode to listen to before beginning the process. Sara details the process, what to expect, and how to deal with what is happening inside your body. Get ready for the grossest, yet most satisfying, story of parasitic worms exiting the body in droves, both dead and alive. Guest: Sara AndrewChemical Free Bodyhttps://chemicalfreebody.com/macro—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest CPI data, what it means for the Fed's next moves, artificial intelligence — how it's changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers. We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.=======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (http://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! http://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp Disclosures: Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.=======================As markets shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true — opportunity is everywhere. At Arch Public, we help you do more than just buy and hold. Yes, our dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long-term investors… but where we really shine? Our arbitrage algos — designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of Arch Public's products is they are free! Yes, you heard that right, try Arch Public for free! Take advantage of wild moves in assets like $SOL, $SUI, and $DOGE, and use them to stack more Bitcoin — completely hands-free. Arch Public is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and our team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit Arch Public today, at https://www.archpublic.com, your portfolio will thank you.=======================Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://uphold.sjv.io/K0RXra. This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I'm compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital.=======================Timestamps:0:00 – Intro1:39 – CPI takeaways & why direction matters more than the number4:33 – Gas prices, wages, housing & why inflation pressure is fading7:44 – Outlook 2026 & rate hike vs rate cut debate12:49 – Jim Chanos bear case on AI & Oracle explained17:18 – How to actually use ChatGPT + enterprise AI adoption problems25:15 – Content creation, avatars & human emotion vs AI30:05 – AI slop, deepfakes & public trust34:23 – The future of work + how investors can play AI in public markets41:18 – Bitcoin outlook + “silent IPO”45:43 – Where to find Jordi's work & what's coming next

If you understand the Operation Gladio program that NATO ran in Western Europe from the 1950s through the late 1970s, then you have a head start in understanding Operation Condor in South America, which happened during a 15-year period beginning in 1968.America's interests in South America created the justification in the eyes of Washington DC to exert its massive financial and military influence over the region in order to stop the potential spread of Communism, which never actually materialized. What did materialize was authoritarian anti-Communist dictators that America installed and controlled through its many tentacles, but this subversion program took on a new look when the Church was added to the decision-making process.—Watch the video version on one of the Macroaggressions Channels:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcast—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.io Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilyActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsC60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471 Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO —

To conclude their two-part discussion, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett discuss the outlook for inflation and monetary policy, with implications for investment-grade credit.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Lisa Shalett: And I am Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Andrew Sheets: Yesterday we focused on the topic of a higher for longer inflation regime, and I was asking the questions. Today, Lisa will grill me on my views for the next year. It's Friday, December 19th at 4pm in London. Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am in New York. All right, Andrew, I'm happy to turn tables on you now. I'm very interested in your thoughts about the past year – 2025 – and looking towards 2026. In 2026, Morgan Stanley Research seems to expect a resilient global growth backdrop, with inflation moderating and central banks easing policy gradually. What do you think are the main drivers behind this more constructive inflation outlook, especially taking into account the market's prevailing concerns about persistent price pressures. Andrew Sheets: There are a couple of factors that we think are going to be near term helps for inflation, although I don't think they totally rule out what you're talking about over that longer term period.So first, we, at Morgan Stanley, are very cautious, very negative on oil prices. We think that there's going to be more supply of oil over the next year than demand for it. And so lower oil prices should help bring inflation down. There's also some measures of just how the inflation indices measure shelter and housing. And so, while we think, kind of, looking further ahead, there are some real shortages emerging in things like the rental markets – where you just haven't had a whole lot of new rental construction coming online, as you look out a year or two ahead. But in the near term, rental markets have been softer. Home prices are coming down with a lag in the data. And so, shelter inflation is relatively soft. So, we think that helps. While at the same time fiscal policy is very supportive and corporates, as we discussed in our last conversation, they're really embracing animal spirits – with more spending, more spending on AI, more capital investment generally, more M&A. And so, those factors together, we think, can over the next 12 months, still mean pretty reasonable growth and Inflation that's still above target – but at least trending a little bit lower. Lisa Shalett: You believe that central banks, including the Fed, will cut rates more slowly given better growth. And this slower pace of easing could actually be positive for the credit markets. So, could you elaborate on your expertise on credit and why a gradual Fed approach may be preferable? What risks and opportunities might this create? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, so I think this is kind of one of these big debates going into this year is – which would we rather have? Would we rather have a Fed that was more active, cutting more aggressively? Or cutting more slowly? And, indeed, we're having this conversation on the heels of a Fed meeting. There's a lot of uncertainty about that path. But the way that we're thinking about it is that the biggest risk to credit would be that this outlook for growth that we have is just too optimistic. That actually growth is weaker than expected. That this rise in the unemployment rate is signaling something far more challenging for the economy ahead and in that scenario the Fed would be justified in cutting a lot more. But I think historically in those periods where growth has deteriorated more significantly while the Fed has been cutting more, those have been periods where credit – and indeed the equity market – have actually done poorly despite more quote unquote Fed assistance. So, periods where the Fed is cutting more gradually tend to be more consistent with policy in the right place. The economy being in an okay place. And so, we think, that that's the better outcome. So again, we have to kind of monitor the situation. But a scenario where the Fed ends up doing a little bit less than the market, or even we expect with rate cuts – because the economy's holding up. That can still be, we think, an okay scenario for markets. Lisa Shalett: So, things are okay and animal spirits are returning. What does that mean for credit markets? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, so I think this is the bigger challenge: is that if our growth scenario holds up, corporates I think have a lot of incentives to start taking more risk – in a way that could be good for stock markets, but a lot more challenging to the lenders, to these companies for credit. Corporates have been impressively restrained over the last several years. They've really, kind of, held back despite lots of fiscal easing, despite very low rates. Those reasons for waiting are falling away. And so, in this backdrop that you, Lisa, were describing the other day around – easier monetary policy, easier fiscal policy, easy regulatory policy, and you know, just for good measure, maybe the biggest capital spending cycle since the railroads through AI. These are some pretty powerful forces of animal spirits. And that's a reason why we think ultimately, we see a lot more issuance. We see roughly a trillion dollars of net supply. So, total supply, less redemptions in U.S. investment grade. That's a huge uptick from this year, and we think that drives spreads wider, even if my colleague Mike Wilson is correct that equity markets rise. Lisa Shalett: So, wow. So, we have very strong U.S. equities. But perhaps an investment grade credit market that underperforms those equities. How else would you think about your asset allocation more broadly, and how might those dynamics around credit issuance and equity success play out regionally? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, so, I think this scenario where equities are up, credit is underperforming. The cycle is getting more aggressive. It's a little unusual, but I think we do have some templates for it and specifically I think investors could look to 2005 or 1997 and 1998. Those were all years where equities were up double digits, where credit spreads were wider. Where yields were somewhat range bound, where corporate aggression was increasing. That is all very consistent with Morgan Stanley's 2026 story. And yet, you did have this divergence between equities and credit market. So, I think it is a market where we see better risk-reward in stocks than in credit. I think it's a market where we want to be in somewhat smaller credits or somewhat smaller equities. We like small and mid cap stocks in the U.S. over large caps. We like high yield over investment grade. And we do think that European credit might outperform as it's somewhat lagging this animal spirits theme that we think will be led by the U.S. Lisa Shalett: So, if that's the outlook, what are the risks? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, so I think there are two risks, and you know, we alluded to one of them early on in this conversation – would be just that growth is weaker than we expect. Usually when the unemployment rate is rising, that's a pretty bad time to be in credit. The unemployment rate is rising. Now, Morgan Stanley economists think that that rise will be temporary, that it will reverse as we go through 2026. And so, it'll be less of a thing to worry about. But you know, a sign that maybe companies have been holding off on firing, waiting for more tariff clarity, if that doesn't come, then that would be a risk to growth. The other risk to growth is just around this AI-related spending. It is very large and the companies that are doing it are some of the wealthiest companies in the world, and they see this spending potentially as really core to their long-term strategic thinking. And so, if you were to ever have an issuer or a set of issuers who were just less price sensitive, who would keep issuing into the market, even if it was starting to reprice that market and push spreads wider, this might be the group. And so, a scenario where that spending is even larger than we expect, and those issuers are less price sensitive than we expect – that could also drive spreads wider, even if the underlying economic backdrop is somewhat okay. Lisa Shalett: Super. That's probably a great place for us to wrap up. So, I'll hand it back to you, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: Well, great, Lisa, always a pleasure to have this conversation. And, as a reminder for all you listening, if you enjoy Thoughts of the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen, it helps more people find the show. *****Lisa Shalett is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

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