Podcasts about Macro

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns to discuss rising market volatility, record gold & silver prices, concerning failures in the private credit industry & other signs of rising systemic stress.She also takes live viewer Q&A#goldprice #creditspreads #artificialintelligence 0:00 - Gold & Silver Rally: Early Innings or Pullback Ahead?2:16 - Silver's Surge: Supply-Demand Imbalance Exposed2:45 - Gold to $22,000? Backing the Monetary Base3:24 - Bracing for Pullback: De-Risking Drags All Assets4:03 - Long-Term Bull: Hard Assets vs. Paper (S&P Ratio)5:12 - Jamie Dimon: Gold to $5K-$10K Endorsement5:54 - Adam's Caution: Nothing Moves in a Straight Line6:53 - Valuation Gap: Gold Up or S&P Down?7:12 - Stock Overvaluation: Waiting for Risk Unwind8:17 - Credit Bifurcation: Junk Yields Spike9:14 - Multi-Decade Shift: Commodities Over Paper11:45 - Hedging Gold: Fire Insurance Analogy13:06 - Prospect Theory: Losses Hurt Twice as Much14:27 - Stephanie's Stance: No Changes, Hedging Uncompelling19:15 - Resources: Hedging Help & Gold Primer22:53 - High-Yield Spreads: Market Starting to Care?23:36 - China Tariffs Trigger De-Risk: Junk Blows Out25:12 - Muted Reactions: Hooters & Red Lobster Bankruptcies29:50 - "We Don't Know How Bad": Private Credit Opacity30:40 - Bodies Floating: TriColor & First Brands Validate?35:07 - PE Proliferation: More Firms Than McDonald's40:14 - Systemic Risk: Trillions Maturing, Interest Doubled42:46 - Historical Busts: 2007 ABCP to Meltdown47:48 - AI Bubble Threat: Hype Drives S&P Fragility50:49 - Achilles Heel: 60-65% Burst Wipes US GDP55:52 - Allocations: Gold Held, Energy for AI Buildout57:01 - AI Endures: Needs Massive Power Infrastructure1:00:15 - Oil Under $60 Myth: Demand Surge Ignored1:01:01 - Tax Migration: Adam's Nevada Move1:01:53 - Stephanie's Florida Journey: NYC to Beaches1:10:05 - Follow Stephanie: Macromavens.com & Conference Tease_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

It has been said that there is no such thing as bad publicity, provided that they spell the name right, but there are exceptions to this old marketing adage. What Israel is doing to the Palestinians in Gaza has the attention of the world, and no amount of public relations is going to take the stink off of this. The Hasbara campaign being waged against conservative youths in America is being amplified by the far-right Heritage Foundation through Project Esther, a social media influence operation being funded by the government of Israel. --------- Watch the video version of this episode on the Macroaggressions Rumble Channel: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  --------- MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO  ---------

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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Dan Nathan, Guy Adami & Chris Verrone break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Wednesday, October 15th -- Learn more about FactSet: https://www.factset.com/lp/mrkt-callMRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet, SoFi & MoneyLionSign up for our emailsFollow us on Twitter @MRKTCallFollow @GuyAdami on TwitterFollow @CarterBWorth on TwitterFollow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMediaLike us on Facebook @RiskReversalWatch all of our videos on YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how youth unemployment will impact future growth and stability across China, India, and Indonesia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – Asia's young workforce is facing a significant challenge. How a soft labor market will shape everything from consumer demand to social stability and long-term growth. It's Tuesday, October 14th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. Across Asia, a concerning trend is emerging. The region's younger generations face mounting challenges in the job market. Asia's youth unemployment averages 16 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. rate of 10.5 percent. Youth unemployment rates are running two to three times higher than headline unemployment rates. The underlying situation is even weaker than what is represented by [the] unemployment rate. And within Asia, the challenge is most acute in China, India, and Indonesia, the three most populous economies. Youth unemployment rates for these three economies are running close to double, as compared to other economies in Asia. Now let's take a closer look at China. The urban youth unemployment rate, i.e. for 16–24-year-olds, has steadily increased since 2019. What's driving this rise in unemployment? A mismatch in labor demand and supply. The number of university graduates surged 40 percent over the last five years to close to 12 million. But economy-wide employment has declined by 20 million over the same period. Entry-level wages are sluggish, and automation plus subdued services growth mean fewer opportunities for newer entrants. Turning to India, their unemployment rate is the highest in the region at 17.6 percent. Employment creation has been subdued. And on top of it, India also faces another issue: underemployment. Post-COVID, primary sector – i.e. farming and mining – employment rose by 50 million, reaching a 17-year high. Note that these jobs are relatively low productivity jobs. And this is explained by the fact that [the] primary sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP but it employs about 40 percent of the workforce. That's a sign of COVID-induced underemployment. How fast must growth be to tackle the unemployment challenge? In our base case, India's GDP will grow at an average of 6.5 percent over the coming decade – and this will mean that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies globally. But this pace of growth will not be sufficient to generate enough jobs. To keep [the] unemployment rate stable, India needs an average GDP growth of close to 7.5 percent; and to address underemployment, the required run rate in GDP growth must be even higher at 12 percent. Shifting to Indonesia, its youth unemployment rate is the second highest in the region. Moreover, close to 60 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. And many of these jobs pay below minimum wage. Similar to India, both these trends signal underemployment. The key reason behind this challenge is weak investment growth. Indonesia's investment-to-GDP ratio has dropped meaningfully over the last five years. So, what's the way forward? For China, shifting towards consumption and services could reduce labor market mismatches. And for India and Indonesia, boosting investment is key. India in particular needs much stronger growth in its industrial and exports sectors. If reforms fall short, policy makers may need to fall back on increasing social welfare spending to manage social stability risks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Macro analyst Anirudha Dutta looks at the current domestic opportunity in India, focusing on demographics, digitisation and consumption. #CapGroupGlobal       This content is intended to highlight issues and be of a general nature. It should not be considered advice, an endorsement or a recommendation. Products mentioned are not an offer of the product and may not be available for sale or purchase in all countries. All investments have risk, and you may lose money. Past results are not a guarantee of future results. Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates.       For our latest insights, practice management ideas and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. If you're based outside of the U.S., visit capitalgroup.com for Capital Group insights.       Watch our latest podcast, Conversations with Mike Gitlin, on YouTube: https://bit.ly/CG-Gitlin-playlist       This content is published by Capital Client Group, Inc., and copyrighted to Capital Group and affiliates, 2025, all rights reserved.        For more information, including our detailed disclosures, visit www.capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures. U.K. investors can view a glossary of technical terms here: https://bit.ly/49rdcFq         To stay informed, follow us     LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/42uSYbm     YouTube: https://bit.ly/4bahmD0     Follow Mike Gitlin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikegitlin/         About Capital Group Capital Group was established in 1931 in Los Angeles, California, with the mission to improve people's lives through successful investing. With our clients at the core of everything we do, we offer carefully researched products and services to help them achieve their financial goals. Learn more: capitalgroup.com Join us: capitalgroup.com/about-us/careers.html Copyright ©2025 Capital Group

Notes and Links to Anthony Gedell's Work       ANTHONY GEDELL writes from New Jersey publishing in Hobart, Poverty House, Variant, Revolution John, Punk Noir Magazine, and Bull. His debut novel, Love Lies in the Throes of Rhetoric, was released in October 2024. Buy Love Lies in the Throes of Rhetoric   Anthony's Instagram   Anthony's Writing for Hobart Pulp   Video Review for Love Lies in the Throes of Rhetoric   At about 1:40, Pete and Anthony talk about inspirations for the podcast At about 3:00, Anthony talks about how teaching informs his writing, and vice versa, with observations on  At about 5:20, Anthony talks about being a concerted listener and always being cognizant of “getting into the room” of wonderful writers and writing conversations At about Anthony talks about the ways in which he and the book's significance have evolved in the year since publication   At about 8:40, Anthony talks about ideas of “writing from comfortability" and  At about 9:40, Anthony responds to Pete's question about what texts have resonated with his students, which includes a major shout out for Eli Cranor At about 13:00, Anthony highlights Of Mice and Men as one example of “high intensity emotion” that moves/interests readers  At about 14:50, Anthony cites Marlon James saying that “the new American novel is the crime novel” and talks about the “writer as journalist” in discussing ideas of writing dystopian in a dystopian world and “writing towards genre”  At about 20:10, Pete and Anthony discuss ideas of the continuity of writers and writing over the centuries  At about 25:00, Anthony expands on ideas of nihilism in contemporary society  At about 31:00, Pete reads the Ecclesiastes, Ch 9, Verse 4, the introduction for Love Lies in the Throes of Rhetoric At about 32:20, Anthony responds to Pete's questions about the book's opening and significance for the rest of the book At about 35:00, Anthony talks about lessons and questions brought out in Biblical passages At about 36:00, Pete responds to Anthony's questions about how Anthony's novel is evocative of Catholic/catholic themes At about 39:30, Anthony shares moving connections in real-life and in the novel and ideas of misery and tragedy and compassion  At about 43:40, the two discuss the “snare” trope and how Eudora has been seen in two ways by a lot of readers, and Anthony shouts out Light Years by James Salter-its beautiful sentences and the possibility of Nedra in Salter's book as a “snare character” At about 48:50, The two connect meaningful scenes and quotes from the novel to memorable Scripture At about 49:50, Anthony responds to Pete's musings about the interesting “too young to feel this old” after Pete rambles about a writing project that “got away” At about 52:40, Anthony references Conrad in talking about nihilism and hopelessness, particularly with regard to Trasc and Eudora, the book's protagonists  At about 55:25, Pete compliments Anthony's use of “snappy dialogue” and asks Anthony about ideas of impotence, especially as seen with Trasc and Eudora At about 1:00:15, Anthony details particular scenes and reflects on some meanings that come from the portraits of masculinity  At about 1:04:30, Trasc and his sensitive nature is discussed, and Anthony talks about   At about 1:06:30, Anthony talks cryptically and profoundly on the writing process for his novel and quotes a memorable line from Salter's Light Years At about 1:09:30, Pete and Anthony stan Who's Afraid of Virginia Wolff? and talk about the play's “dialectical violence”   At about 1:12:00, Anthony reflects on his writing style and the place from which he writes and how boredom and “soccer dad” literature enervates  At about 1:14:50, a quote from the novel leads to the two dissecting David Foster Wallace's work and its significance, and some texts that are thought to be overly celebrated   At about 1:18:00, Anthony reflects on dystopia, worldbuilding, and “collective human behaviors” and how the physical atmosphere he creates can shadow feelings and characters' characteristics  At about 1:23:00, Anthony emphasizes the intentionality of the writing in the novel,  while at the same time allowing for the speculation that comes with the uncertain world and readers' experiences At about 1:24:40, the two reflect on Biblical connections to revelation and Revelation and dystopia and apocalypse  At about 1:26:40, Anthony responds to Pete's question about “The Court” and connection the Greek Chorus      You can now subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, and leave me a five-star review. You can also ask for the podcast by name using Alexa, and find the pod on Stitcher, Spotify, and on Amazon Music. Follow Pete on IG, where he is @chillsatwillpodcast, or on Twitter, where he is @chillsatwillpo1. You can watch other episodes on YouTube-watch and subscribe to The Chills at Will Podcast Channel. Please subscribe to both the YouTube Channel and the podcast while you're checking out this episode.       Pete is very excited to have one or two podcast episodes per month featured on the website of Chicago Review of Books. The audio will be posted, along with a written interview culled from the audio. His conversation with Hannah Pittard, a recent guest, is up at Chicago Review.     Sign up now for The Chills at Will Podcast Patreon: it can be found at patreon.com/chillsatwillpodcastpeterriehl      Check out the page that describes the benefits of a Patreon membership, including cool swag and bonus episodes. Thanks in advance for supporting Pete's one-man show, DIY podcast and extensive reading, research, editing, and promoting to keep this independent podcast pumping out high-quality content!    This month's Patreon bonus episode features an exploration of flawed characters, protagonists who are too real in their actions, and horror and noir as being where so much good and realistic writing takes place.    Pete has added a $1 a month tier for “Well-Wishers” and Cheerleaders of the Show.     This is a passion project, a DIY operation, and Pete would love for your help in promoting what he's convinced is a unique and spirited look at an often-ignored art form.    The intro song for The Chills at Will Podcast is “Wind Down” (Instrumental Version), and the other song played on this episode was “Hoops” (Instrumental)” by Matt Weidauer, and both songs are used through ArchesAudio.com.     Please tune in for Episode 304 with Erin Somers, a writer, reporter, and book critic based in the Hudson Valley. Her fiction, essays, and criticism have appeared in The New York Times Magazine, Esquire, Best American Short Stories, and elsewhere.      Her second novel, The Ten Year Affair, was named a most anticipated book by The New York Times, The Washington Post, Vulture, Bustle, LitHub, W Magazine, Orion, and Our Culture, and it will be published by Simon & Schuster on October 21, the date the episode airs.    Please go to ceasefiretoday.org, and/or https://act.uscpr.org/a/letaidin to call your congresspeople and demand an end to the forced famine and destruction of Gaza and the Gazan people.

Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys discuss what's driving unprecedented consolidation for asset and wealth management firms.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We're going to unpack today what's driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.It's Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What's your outlook for the asset management industry?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that's driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you're looking at me a little dazed on what's solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.So that's the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what's your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that's larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically – deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you're talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint.Betsy Graseck: They're looking to consolidate their providers?Michael Cyprys: Correct.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: They're looking to work with fewer asset managers.Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.And also, I'd point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that's going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that bar is rising…Betsy Graseck: Mm. Michael Cyprys: And firms are thinking about how to compete effectively as the landscape evolves. And look, this is all in the context of already a lot of challenges and changes happening as you think about evolving client needs. The rising cost of doing business, whether it's investing for growth or even harnessing AI, and that's all pressuring profitability. We think this is particularly a challenge for those mid-size money managers that are multi-asset, multi-liquid and global. Those with, call it, [$]0.5 trillion to [$]2 trillion in size, making them more likely to pursue consolidation, opportunities to bolster their capabilities and scale while also generating cost efficiencies.Betsy Graseck: So now looking forward, what type of deals do you expect and how does it differ from past years?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, a few things are different than past years. First is that the deal activity is encompassing many forms of partnership. And we think that this experimentation around partnership will only accelerate. That allows, for example, for private market managers to access retail distribution without owning the end infrastructure and the last mile to the customer. It also allows traditional managers to provide their retail customers with access to high quality private market strategies from well-known and branded firms.Second is we see a broadening out of the types of acquisitions themselves when we talk about M&A, right? So, three types of deals. First are deals within the same vertical or intersector. So, think about this as an asset manager buying another asset manager to acquire capabilities, to gain cost synergies or bolster distribution.Second type of deals that we're seeing are ones that expand beyond one's own vertical. So intersector deals. So, asset management combining with wealth or insurance, for example, where firms would seek to own a larger, greater portion of the overall value chain. And so, these firms are getting closer to that end client. For example, an asset manager getting closer to that end customer. And the third type being financial sponsor deals where a sponsor is investing either as an in an asset or a wealth manager.Now you didn't ask me around the historical outcomes of M&A. But I would say that the historical outcomes have been mixed in the asset management space. But here we think that the opportunity ahead is so bright that we think firms will find ways to navigate and pursue strategic activity. But it does require addressing some of the culture and integration challenges that have plagued some of the deals in the past.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: So, Betsy, what do you see as the key drivers of consolidation in wealth management?Betsy Graseck: There's several. From the wealth manager side, number one is an aging population of advisor and advisor-owners, and the need to address succession and how to best serve their clients when passing on their book of business. So, we've got succession issues as the number one driver. But additionally, the need for scale is clearly getting higher and higher – given the costs of IT infrastructure rising, the needs to be able to leverage AI effectively and to manage your cyber risk effectively. These are just some of the drivers of desire to merge from the wealth manager perspective.Second. We have an increasing buying pool. If you just look at the large cap banks, for example. Significant amount of excess capital. Could we see some of that excess capital be put to work in the wealth management industry? To me, that would make sense. Why? Because wealth management is one of the best, if not the best financial institution service for shareholders. It is a high ROE business. It also is a business that commands a high multiple in the stock market.So, we would not be surprised to see activity there over the course of the next several years. So, Mike, thanks for joining me on the show today.Michael Cyprys: Thanks, Betsy. Always a pleasure.Betsy Graseck: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Mark Yusko, Founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management interview - we discuss the latest with Bitcoin and the Crypto market.Topics:- Bitcoin hitting a new all time high and expectations for Q4- Is it possible the Bitcoin top is in already? - US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve- Digital Asset Treasury companies - Bitcoin vs Altcoins as treasury asset. Is there a bubble forming for DATs? - Banks and TradFi capitulating to Crypto - Liquidity driving Assets higher and the Everything BubbleBrought to you by

The trade dispute between the US and China took a new turn on Friday, as US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response to Chinese measures against the US such as export controls on rare earths. Markets responded negatively to the news, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, but the key move was perhaps in the US dollar, which no longer seems to be behaving as a safe haven. Investec Focus Radio SA

In this episode, Stig Brodersen welcomes back one of the most insightful voices in global macroeconomics, Lyn Alden. In this wide-ranging conversation, they explore the shifting landscape of the U.S. dollar and its role in a rapidly changing world. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:11 - Whether we're moving from a US dollar system to a three-polar currency system 09:14 - The relationship between the fiscal deficit and the US dollar 18:51 - Why the US dollar may not go back to the strength it had in 2022 any time soon 22:23 - How to use US dollar sanctions (if at all) to achieve your goals 37:01 - Whether the US effectively implements capital controls 41:55 - What would happen if the Fed lost its independence 50:16 - Can the fiscal budget effectively balance? 57:18 - How to think about investing in high-quality equity investing in an era of fiscal dominance Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Lyn Alden's book, Broken Money. Our interview with Lyn Alden about Investing during Fiscal Dominance.  Our interview with Lyn Alden about Gold.  Our interview with Lyn Alden about Currencies and Debt. Our interview with Lyn Alden about her book, Broken Money. Our interview with Lyn Alden about How the Fed Went Broke. Our interview with Lyn Alden about Macro and the Energy Market. Our interview with Lyn Alden about Money. Kenneth Rogoff's book, Our Dollar Your Problem. Lyn Alden's free website. Related ⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining HardBlock AnchorWatch Human Rights Foundation Linkedin Talent Solutions Vanta Unchained Onramp Netsuite Shopify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Season 4, Episode 5: Jack Stone and Alex Gornik sit down with Ben Miller, CEO and Co-Founder of Fundrise, to reveal how technology is transforming commercial real estate investing and changing how retail investors access private markets. Ben shares the story behind Fundrise's rise to over $7 billion in real estate assets, why commercial real estate investing is all about macro trends now, and what drives the build-to-rent housing wave. He breaks down the latest on private credit, multifamily, and AI in real estate investment management. Plus, find out how Fundrise's digital platform is making real estate crowdfunding accessible to millions. TOPICS 00:00 Meet Ben Miller 04:45 How Fundrise democratized real estate investing 12:30 Macro trends driving commercial real estate returns 19:55 Build-to-rent strategies and platform innovation 26:40 Private credit and multifamily market shifts 34:10 Securitization and institutional investor trends 41:45 AI's impact on CRE investment and management 49:10 Fundrise's outlook for private markets in 2025 Shoutout to our sponsor, Lev. The AI-powered way to get real estate deals financed. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

**This week's Macro ‘n Chill gathering should be a lively one. Whenever we dive into the topic of cultural hegemony, it sparks a thoughtful discussion. Join us on Tuesday, October 14, 8pm ET/5pm PT. Click here to register This is the 349th episode of our podcast. Just sayin'.Steve's guest is David Fields, talking about his recent article, The Cultural Syndromes of Capitalism. David explains the rise of far-right figures like Donald Trump is not a random accident but a direct outcome of the capitalist system, which creates deep-seated cultural syndrome that poison our minds and relationships, making fascism an attractive option for many when the system itself is in crisis. The three key cultural syndromes are: Gain Primacy Syndrome, designed to make us feel like failures: Capitalism constantly tells us to optimize ourselves and chase endless wealth. When we inevitably can't achieve this due to low wages and precarious jobs, it creates a deep sense of alienation and loss. Fascists then exploit this feeling, telling us to blame immigrants, people of color, or our neighbors instead of the system itself. Zero-Sum Rivalry Syndrome, pitting us against each other: The system is built on dog-eat-dog competition. This forces us into constant social comparison, potentially leading to self-hatred and mental health crises. When we feel we're losing this race, it's easy for fascist rhetoric to redirect our anger. Ownership Syndrome, making everything fake: We are taught to find meaning not in community or authenticity, but in the things we buy. This is designed to create a hollow, meaningless life. Fascism offers a false sense of genuine community and a return to a "better past" (hahaha) to fill this void. The conversation also touches on theological reflections and historical perspectives to further emphasize the pervasive cultural manipulation intrinsic to capitalism. Overall, the episode examines the ideological tools used to maintain economic subjugation. Liberals and Democrats are meant as a ‘friendly face' of the same system, offering pittances of welfare while ensuring the exploitative oppressive structure remains intact. Link to the article discussed in this episode: https://utahvanguard.medium.com/the-cultural-syndromes-of-capitalism-e2765aa7df34 David M. Fields is an economist and author whose research is grounded in critical, realistic and genetic structuralist ontology and epistemology, focusing on the complex interactions of foreign exchange and capital flows with economic growth, fiscal and monetary policy and distribution, with particular emphasis on the concept of endogenous money. Additionally, he investigates the political economy of regional development, along with examining patterns with respect to housing, social stratification and community planning. He is currently an economist at the Utah Department of Commerce and the author of a Medium post for the Utah Vanguard. @ProfDavidFields on X

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Brian from Santiment joined me to review the metrics for Bitcoin, Altcoins, Ethereum, XRP, BNB, and Solana.

Shiloh Bates is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners. During his 20-year career, Mr. Bates has worked for several CLO managers and has been one of the largest investors in CLO securities. He wrote the book, CLO Investing with a focus on CLO Equity and BB Notes. He is also the host of the CLO Investor Podcast. In this podcast we discuss private credit boom, growth in covenant-lite loans, industry concentration in CLOs, and much more.   Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Matt Barrie. They discuss all things AI in this week's feature interview. Is it a bubble about to burst, or a new secular trend that will soon be bigger than the Internet itself? https://bit.ly/4h3y1f3   

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley's first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today's volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we're in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI's uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he's long everything not tied to the U.S.Topics covered:The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottomsWhy this may be the best macro environment in 40 yearsThe policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollarPositioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assetsHow Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his processThe dollar's impact on equity and sector leadershipInflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenonWhy AI's economic impact will take longer than expectedThe probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenariosFiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repressionWhy bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equitiesLessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”Timestamps:00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market's fragility26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today's macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.Topics covered:Systematic vs. discretionary macro investingAndy's Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flowsHow AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stopsTariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growthThe Fed's independence and what it means for marketsRisk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environmentsHow major flows and corporate buybacks shape market directionWhy Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and setup02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt01:00:00 What Andy's watching next01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

In this episode of the Heart to Heart podcast, Dr. Mike Hart sits down with Dr. Ted Naiman, a family medicine physician from Seattle with a passion for diet and exercise. They discuss the importance of family physicians in healthcare, Dr. Naiman's personal fitness transformation focusing on a high-protein, low-carb diet, and the significance of satiety over counting calories. Dr. Naiman shares his views on effective exercise routines, optimal macronutrient ratios, and the advantages of front-loading protein. They also delve into insulin resistance, the use of fasting triglycerides as a marker, and the potential of GLP-1 medications for weight loss and insulin sensitivity. This comprehensive discussion provides actionable insights into improving metabolic health and body composition. Dr. Ted Naiman is a family physician, author, and leading voice in evidence-based nutrition and metabolic health. With over two decades of experience in primary care, Dr. Naiman has dedicated his career to helping people understand the science of body composition, satiety, and sustainable weight management. Learn more at tednaiman.com  and on LinkedIn.   Links: The P:E Diet — by Dr. Ted Naiman Fairlife Milk (ultra-filtered milk)   Show Notes: 00:00 Welcome back to the Hart2Heart Podcast with Dr. Mike Hart 00:30 Dr. Ted Naiman's background 01:30 Transformation journey 02:00 Diet and exercise philosophy 03:00 Calorie counting debate 05:30 Macro ratios and protein focus 09:30 Daily meal timing and strategy 13:27 “Front-load your protein. If you start your day with donuts, you'll eat more all day. If you start with protein, you'll automatically eat less.” 20:30 Sources of protein 25:00 Carbohydrate choices 29:00 Fat sources and supplementation 34:00 Understanding insulin resistance 37:30 Understanding insulin sensitivity and resistance 39:00 Indicators of insulin resistance: triglycerides and HDL 43:30 The role of fasting insulin and glucose 50:30 Training recommendations: cardio vs. weights 52:30 Effective resistance training strategies 59:30 Visceral fat: causes and reduction strategies 01:05:30 The role of GLP-1 in weight management 01:14:30 Conclusion and final thoughts   — The Hart2Heart podcast is hosted by family physician Dr. Michael Hart, who is dedicated to  cutting through the noise and uncovering the most effective strategies for optimizing health,  longevity, and peak performance. This podcast dives deep into evidence-based approaches to  hormone balance, peptides, sleep optimization, nutrition, psychedelics, supplements, exercise  protocols, leveraging sunlight light, and de-prescribing pharmaceuticals—using medications only when absolutely necessary.   Beyond health science, we tackle the intersection of public health and politics, exposing how  Policy decisions shape our health landscape and what actionable steps people can take to reclaim control over their well-being.   Guests range from out-of-the-box thinking physicians such as Dr. Casey Means (author of "Good Energy") and Dr. Roger Sehult (Medcram lectures) to public health experts such as Dr. Jay Bhattacharya (Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Dr. Marty Mckary  (Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and high-profile names such as  Zuby and Mark Sisson (Primal Blueprint and Primal Kitchen).   If you're ready to take control of your health and performance, this is the podcast for you. We cut through the jargon and deliver practical, no-BS advice that you can implement in your daily life, empowering you to make positive changes for your well-being.   Connect on social with Dr. Mike Hart: Instagram: @drmikehart Twitter: @drmikehart Facebook: @drmikehart  

Asset-backed securities issuance remains slightly behind the same period in 2024, even with Tricolor-related angst continuing, notes Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist Rod Chadehumbe on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Chadehumbe and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey discuss Tricolor's effect on the ABS market, how the consumer is driving issuance, recent trends in subprime credit-card and auto-ABS delinquencies, and his outlook for spreads. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series

While the eyes of America were fixated on the Charlie Kirk funeral pep rally, many nefarious things were happening under the cover of a defacto media blackout. The Crown got into the artificial intelligence game in a huge way through the data center construction angle and opportunity zones with their Tech Prosperity Deal that was formalized during Trump's recent UK visit. Left-wing violence has a particular flavor and smell, so it is becoming increasingly more difficult for the mainstream press to sell domestic terrorism as a bipartisan tactic. The list of leftists involved in mass shootings is not being talked about by the media, and they refuse to connect even the most obvious dots with regard to funding from George Soros's Open Society Foundation. However, beware of the ramifications of supporting and legalizing the crackdown by the state. - Watch the video version of this episode on the Macroaggressions Rumble Channel: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  - MACRO & Charlie Robinson Links Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://macroaggressions.gold/ | (800) 426-1836 LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO 

An extended U.S. government shutdown raises the risk for weaker growth potential. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests key checkpoints that investors should keep in mind.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: Three checkpoints we're watching for as the U.S. government shutdown continues. It's Wednesday, October 8th at 10:30am in New York. The federal government shutdown in the United States has crossed the one week mark. But if you're watching the markets, you might be surprised at how calm everything seems. Stocks are steady. Bond yields haven't moved much, and volatility's low. It's more or less the scenario my colleague Ariana and I had talked about in anticipation of the impasse in Washington. We'd noted the potential for uncertainty for investors and market reaction depending on how long the shutdown would last. So that raises a big question: what, if anything, about this government shutdown could shake investor confidence and start moving markets? The question is worth considering. Prediction markets now suggest the most likely outcome is that the government shutdown will not end for at least another week. And as we've seen in past shutdowns, the longer it drags on, the more likely it is to matter. That's because risks to the economic outlook start to accumulate, and investors eventually have to start pricing in a weaker growth outlook. There's a few checkpoints we're watching for – for when investors might start feeling this way. First, the missed paycheck for furloughed federal workers. The first instance of this comes in a few days. Less pay naturally means less spending. Studies suggest that spending among affected workers can drop by two to four percent during a shutdown. That's not huge for GDP at first; but it's a sign the shutdown is having effects beyond Washington, DC. Second, this time might be different because of potential layoffs. The administration has hinted that agencies could move to permanently cut staff — something we haven't seen before. Unions have already said they'd challenge that in court. But if those actions start, or even if legal uncertainty grows around them, it could raise the economic stakes. Third, we're watching for real disruptions to economic activity resulting from the shutdown. The last shutdown ended when air traffic in New York was curtailed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers. We're already seeing substantial air traffic delays across the country. More substantial delays or ground halts obviously impede economic activity related to travel. And if such actions don't coincide with signals from DC of progress in negotiating a bill to reopen the government, investors' concern could grow. So here's the bottom line: markets may be right to stay calm — for now. But the longer this shutdown lasts, the more likely one of these pressure points pushes investors to rethink their optimism. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

I'm so excited to share this with you—the LiftingLindsay Training App just got a massive upgrade!

Our Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains how changes in the yield curve are affecting markets such as insurance, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today – How the shape of the yield curve has affected credit and housing markets, and the risk of changes to the curve and its implications. It's Tuesday, October 7th at 1pm in New York. The shape of the yield curve plays a pivotal role in financial markets. It influences everything from credit conditions to housing and mortgage dynamics. And you've been hearing on this show for some time about more Fed rate cuts coming. Our economists expect 25 basis point rate cuts at the next three meetings – that is October, December and January. And then two more in April and July of next year. What does this mean to the shape of the curve? Our high conviction call has been that investors should position for a steeper yield curve. Why does the curve matter? It's not just a macro signal. It's a transmission mechanism that shapes pricing, risk appetite, and sector flows. Take life insurers, for example. A steeper curve has turbocharged demand for fixed annuity products, which in turn drives flows into spread assets like corporate and securitized credit. Insurance demand has become a powerful technical in credit markets. This year's steepening has been led by falling front-end yields. For example, 2-year Treasuries are down about 60 basis points, significantly outpacing the 40 basis point drop in 10-year yields and just 5 basis point drop in 30-year yields. That front-end move reflects shifting rate expectations and offers relief to highly leveraged issuers who rely on short-term funding. But longer-dated yields remain sticky, keeping all-in borrowing costs elevated. That is good for insurers – and the sale of fixed annuity products – but acts as a brake on overall issuance, helping keep credit spreads tight despite macro uncertainty. That said, not all markets benefit. Mortgage rates, which track longer yields more closely than the fed funds rate, have actually risen 25 to 30 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of 2024. That's a headwind for affordability. While a steeper curve may support lending and future housing supply, it's not helping today's buyers. A flatter curve with lower long-end yields would offer more meaningful relief—but that is clearly not our base case. Bottom line: Rate cuts matter, but the shape of the curve may matter more. A steeper curve is a tailwind for credit but a headwind for housing. And a reminder that not all markets move in sync. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Cash PT Trends 2025: What We Learned in Dallas + The New Industry Report In this episode, Doc Danny Matta and Yves Gege unpack takeaways from their Dallas live event and preview PT Biz's new Cash PT Industry Report. They cover what's working now across pure cash, hybrid, and out-of-network models; why continuity and small-group training are surging; and how the talent market is shifting as more solo owners choose to join established cash clinics. Quick Ask Help us move toward the mission of adding $1B in cash-based services to our profession: share this episode with a clinician friend or post it to your IG stories and tag Danny—he'll reshare it. Episode Summary From beginners to builders: PT Biz events now draw ~200 owners focused on scaling, not just getting started. No single “right” model: Cash-only, hybrid, out-of-network, Medicare-focused, and gym-like setups can all work—business principles drive success. Continuity is up: Many clinics now get 20–40%+ of monthly visits from recurring performance/wellness work—stabilizing revenue. Small-group training wins: Huge LTV and stick rate; still underused (only ~¼ of clinics are doing it). Talent trend: More solo owners are approaching larger cash clinics for roles with culture, mentorship, and intrapreneurship tracks. Reality check on pay: Compensation must tie to the revenue a provider can generate; entitlement ≠ value creation. Macro shift: Rising deductibles & wellness demand push all clinics to add self-pay services—cash PT is no longer fringe. Live Event Takeaways Owner mindset: Conversations have matured—hiring, leadership, profitability, systems, and scaling to $100k–$200k/month per site. Market fit varies: Geography, payer mix, and demographics dictate whether to stay pure cash, add OON, or blend Medicare. Community compounding: Member-to-member playbooks (what worked, what didn't) are often the most valuable part of events. The Industry Report: What to Watch Continuity growth: Bigger clinics show higher % of recurring visits, needing fewer new evals to fill schedules. Underutilized small groups: High demand among “post-injury but not gym-ready” clients; strong margins and retention. Diversified offers: Performance, strength, and longevity programs de-risk revenue and increase lifetime value. Small-Group Training: Why It Works Checks the boxes: Strength, mobility, accountability, and community—with clinicians nearby if issues arise. Cost-effective for clients: Often similar to PT weekly or personal training—but with better adherence and social glue. Team friendly: Therapists enjoy variety and fewer notes; can be delivered by PTs or trained coaches under clinical oversight. Career Pathways & The “Unemployable” Test Two good options: Go all-in on ownership or join a high-performing cash clinic as an intrapreneur (clinic director, partner track). Value first, then ask: Promotions/partnerships follow demonstrated impact, not tenure. Reputation compounds. Pro Tips You Can Use This Month Launch continuity now: Create 1–2 simple monthly options (e.g., strength + mobility; return-to-sport). Pilot a small group: 4–8 clients, 2x/week, 8 weeks. Price for value, track retention, collect testimonials. Map your model: List your market realities (Medicare, Tricare, local payer rates, boomer density) before choosing cash/hybrid. Hire from the doers: Prioritize applicants who've tried solo—“batteries included,” better respect for business realities. Benchmark & iterate: Compare your prices, packages, and continuity % to the industry report; fix one lever each month. Notable Quotes “There isn't one right model—principles win. Leads in, lifetime value up, recruit well, lead well.” “Continuity compacts the snowball. When 30–40% of your visits are recurring, everything gets easier.” “If you want stability without owning every problem, be an intrapreneur—create value, then opportunities chase you.” Action Items Download the Cash PT Industry Report and benchmark your prices, packages, and continuity %. Sketch a small-group pilot (who it's for, schedule, price, progression) and pre-sell 6–8 spots. Define two continuity offers with clear outcomes and a simple monthly cadence. Write a one-page model map for your area (payers, demographics, demand) and choose cash-only vs hybrid accordingly. Programs Mentioned Clinical Rainmaker: Systems to get you full-time in your clinic. Mastermind: Scale space, team, and operations. PT Biz Part-Time to Full-Time 5-Day Challenge (Free): Expenses, visit targets, pricing, 3 paths to go full-time, and a one-page plan. Resources & Links PT Biz Website Free 5-Day PT Biz Challenge Cash PT Industry Report: Download on the PT Biz site. About the Hosts: Doc Danny Matta—staff PT, active-duty military PT, cash-practice founder & exit; now helping 1,000+ clinicians start, grow, and scale with PT Biz. Yves Gege—cash-practice owner and PT Biz co-founder focused on systems, leadership, and scaling.

Host Chris Lopez sits down with Peter, an anesthesiologist who became an LP and then a GP, to unpack the career jolt that pushed him into real estate and the systems he built to bring more transparency and advocacy to LPs through Ascent Equity Group. Peter shares his first $5k crowdfunding check (and that unforgettable $47 distribution), lessons from launching in the tough 2021 vintage, and how his team handled rate/insurance shocks, lender work-outs, and communication when things got bumpy. We also dive into why he's been using preferred equity in today's market—including a 12.5–13.5% monthly-pay deal that returned capital in ~12 months and where he's hunting now (hospitality, selective retail, and medical office) with a likely recession window following the Fed's pivot. Key Takeaways: From OR to LP to GP: how a broken partnership promise sparked a plan for autonomy and passive income Preferred equity in practice: monthly pay, collateralized position, and why it's a “right now” tool—not forever 2021 lessons: short-term debt + fast-rising rates/insurance = humility, capital infusions, and relentless communication Macro setup: Fed pivot → typical recession lag (~10–11 months) → prepare capital/relationships for distressed opportunities What's next: multifamily fundamentals (supply pause, sticky demand), selective hospitality/retail, and a special eye on medical office Disclaimer The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any of the advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.

Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, joined me to to review the latest chart analysis and price predictions for Bitcoin, Altcoins, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. https://x.com/CalebFranzen, https://cubicanalytics.substack.com/Brought to you by

Our strategists Daniel Blake and Tim Chan discuss how Asia is adapting to multipolar world dynamics, tech innovation and longevity trends to create new opportunities for global investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake, Morgan Stanley's Asia Equity and Thematic Strategist. Tim Chan: And I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley Head of Asia Sustainability Research and Thematic Strategist Daniel Blake: Today, how Asia is reshaping its development strategy, corporate governance, and capital markets to lead globally. It's Monday, October 6th at 8am in Singapore. Tim Chan: And it's also 8am in Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: Asia is experiencing a number of dramatic changes that are reshaping industries, even entire economies. Deglobalization, supply chain shifts, frenetic investment in AI and looming disruption from the adoption of the technology, rapid energy transformation, and the transition to super aged populations as longevity drives investment in innovative healthcare and better nutrition are just some of the overarching themes. Asia's transformation is a story every global investor needs to follow and look for opportunities in. Tim Chan: So, what are the overarching themes, when you look at Asia Pacific? For example, what are the key themes that you're seeing in terms of driving the equity return and the market trend that you're seeing? Daniel Blake: We're approaching the Asia thematic opportunity from the framework of a competitive reinvention. It's competitive because this is deeply rooted in the cultural and business norms across much of the region, which has had an export focus through the modernization process in Japan, and more broadly with the emergence of the Asia Tigers. But we're seeing this competition really stepping up another notch. As countries look at how they can take market share in emerging technologies, and also this overarching competition between the U.S. and China, which sits at the heart of the multipolar world theme we've been laying out in recent years. We're also seeing a reinvention of development strategies of corporate governance frameworks and of capital markets to try to better improve the financial supply chain, to see the capital raising the capital allocation process improved and ultimately drive better returns for an aging population. So, Tim, you've been very focused on the corporate governance improvements that were seen in much of the region. Take us through what you think is most compelling and most important for investors to note. Tim Chan: I think governance reforms is a really key thing for Asia Pacific. Take an example in Japan, in the past we have done some correlation analysis between the major governance factors and what are driving the return. What we have found is that, first of all, there is a significant alpha potential from online companies with leading governance metrics and also companies that may improve their governance metrics over time. So, if we look at the independence of board of directors as an example. There is a positive correlation between the total return and also the independence in Japan market. And overall, we are seeing a major government improvement. As Daniel you have mentioned, China, Korea, India, and Singapore, and Japan as well – all these markets together account for over 70 percent of the market cap in MS Asia Pacific in index. So that's why, we think the governance reform is really driving the return of Asia Pacific as a whole. Daniel, after talking about the governance reform and capital market reform, I know multipolar level is also a key theme for Asia Pacific. So, what you are seeing in terms of multipolar level in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the multipolar world theme has come back to the foreground in 2025 as trade tensions have risen, as deal making has been struck or attempted. And we've seen the concept of weaponized interdependence really being proven out in the second quarter of 2025, as China has been in recent years, implementing frameworks for export controls and leverage these quite effectively. So economic security initiatives have come back to the focus for investors. Over recent years, we've seen a number being set up across the region, including Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act, the Self-Reliant India framework, and South Korea's Supply Chain Stabilization Act, as well as Australia's National Reconstruction Fund. So, we see a number of investment opportunities flowing from these reforms. Ultimately the critical mineral and permanent magnet supply chain is very much in focus, but we're also expecting to see semi localization. So, semiconductor localization efforts are continuing to drive investment and activity. Naturally, defense has been a key area of focus for investors in 2025, and overall we see defense spending rising in Asia from 600 U.S. billion dollars in 2024 to [$]1 trillion in 2030.So, Tim, the energy security theme fits as part of this overall future of energy theme that you've been exploring with the team. How do you see this intersection with the multipolar world and what are the key investment opportunities? Tim Chan: For the future of energy, I think the energy story is really at the core of Asia multipolar world positioning. Take an example, we are seeing for Southeast Asia, the region is importing gas from U.S., and then also Korea and Japan are also trying to export their nuclear technology to the Western world as well. I think all these have a part to play in the multipolar world; but at the same time, they are also crucial for these countries to meet their own energy target and strategy. In Asia Pacific, when we look at the future of energy, there are a few driving force[s]. One is the very strong growth of renewable energy. Take an example, in India, we are seeing a huge CapEx going into the renewable energy sector and solar sector as well. China is already the biggest market in solar panel. Then also Korea and Japan are developing their nuclear capacity as well. And as I have mentioned, they also export their nuclear technology to the Western world. So, I would say, these Asian countries are balancing the multipolar world priorities with their future of energy target as well. And then there were also lots of opportunities between these dynamics; I will highlight two examples. One is a nuclear renaissance thesis that we have written extensively in the past two years. We have highlighted Japan and Korea being the key beneficiaries under this multipolar world and future of energy dynamics. And then the other would be the gas globalization in Southeast Asia or ASEAN region, where we see opportunities in the gas distributor, gas infrastructure in Southeast Asia. And then gas is going to be much more important when it comes to the energy, security and transition agenda in Southeast Asia region. So we are seeing lots of development in the future of energy in Asia Pacific. But when it comes to the other big theme that is AI. Asia Pacific is also a leader in a global AI race. So, Danny, what are the most reputable trend that you're seeing on a national or regional level? On tech diffusion and AI in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the concept of competitive reinvention also is useful in understanding Asia's response to AI and technology diffusion. So, we've seen China in particular, looking to strengthen its position in the development phase of new technologies. And we're also seeing on the export competition front, more incentives to compete for the next phase of supply chain diversification. We're also seeing the emerging class of China MNCs that are sitting at the heart of our China Emerging Frontiers research. And another key area of discussion and research for us is understanding China's unique AI path. Where we're seeing more of a focus on policy makers and corporates playing to strengths in terms of power, data and talent, given the shortages of compute, and at the same time wanting to pursue a localization strategy over the medium term. On the technology front, we think the India stack is also still underappreciated as a digital enabler of opportunities in the New India. And then more broadly, we are looking for companies that we see in Asia that will prove to be AI adoption leaders. So, this underpins a really another key work stream for us in identifying opportunities from AI and tech diffusion into the region. So, Tim, how about when we turn to the theme of longevity, what are the key investment opportunities you see in Asia Pacific? Tim Chan: First of all, let's look at China. So, China is entering a super age society and by 2030, China's elderly population will hit 260 million. So that is a big number, which accounts for 18 percent of the population. And Japan as well, and Korea as well. Korea is already entering the super aged society. And then there have been reform program on healthcare, financial system pension and labor market in order to support these, old aging population. And for Japan, the focus is really on not just living longer but also living more healthy. Take an example, we have done some reports on the healthy food industry in Japan. And how different companies are providing affordable, healthy food to consumer. And we think that will create opportunities for investor, if they would like to look into longevity as a theme. Overall, we are seeing new market in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and affordable healthy food, as well as the reform in the wealth management and pension system that will create opportunities in the financial market as well. And the longevity economy and or the silver economy is becoming a big theme for Asia Pacific for a long time to come. Daniel Blake: Tim, thanks for taking the time to talk. Tim Chan: Yeah, great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tony, Zhang, Blaine Reed and Rich Excell are back to discuss the latest on the job market, rate cuts, financial conditions and the Dollar.  Is now the time to look to Asian markets given the catalysts? Does the Tricolor and First Brands news suggest cracks in the credit markets?   Have a listen to find out

“Money Movers” provides investors with real-time analysis of the stories and the people attracting the attention of the markets each day. Capturing the energy of day's early trading, the program includes the breaking news and numbers driving stocks and sectors, helping investors make critical decisions. “Money Movers” anchors speak with the CEOs, government decision-makers and newsmakers who play a relevant role in how money is moving. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Global equities have had a good run since the Liberation Day jitters in April, with Japan and South Africa being standout markets. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International says markets are awaiting the next moves, but clouding the outlook has been the US government shutdown, which meant that the September jobs numbers could not be released. September inflation data could also be delayed. Meanwhile South Africa's PMI numbers are improving, which should have a positive Impact on GDP. Investec Focus Radio SA

Have you ever wondered -- How much do I really need to retire early and am I on track? How do I balance all of my financial goals? How can I help my children be financially secure? Tune into Season 3 of What Should I Do With My Money, hosted by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Jamie Roô to hear real-life stories about these and other big financial questions.

This week Kevin & Patrick welcome, Paulo Macro & Le Shrub. They discuss Golden Age of Grift, how to navigate the current environment and whether this is starting to resemble 2007. Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading:  https://secure.bigpicturetrading.com/membership/signup/jpX05srf Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Our China Healthcare Analyst Jack Lin discusses how China's biotech surge is reshaping healthcare, investment and innovation worldwide.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Jack Lin: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jack Lin, from Morgan Stanley's China Healthcare Team. Today, the boom in China biotech – and how it's not just a headline for China-focused investors, but a story that touches all of us. It is Friday, October 3rd at 2pm in Hong Kong. Many people might not realize this but some of the next generation healthcare innovation is being developed far from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The medicines you rely on, treatment plans that could shape your family's future, even investment opportunity that can grow your savings. They are all increasingly influenced by China's rapidly evolving biotech sector, which is transitioning from traditional generics manufacturing into the global innovation ecosystem. In fact, China's biotech industry is set to become a major player in the global innovation ecosystem. By 2040, we project China's originated assets could represent about a third of U.S. FDA approvals – up dramatically from just 5 percent today. And the question isn't if China's biotech will matter, but how global patients could benefit; and how consumers and investors worldwide might engage with its impact.What's driving this transformation? Three key components are driving the globalization of China originated drug innovations: cost, accessibility, and innovation quality. Lower cost in China's biotech sector enables more efficient development. Clinical trial quality is improving with regulatory pathways becoming more streamlined, promoting accessibility of China innovation for global markets. Finally, innovation in China's biotech sector is gaining momentum with more regionally developed medicines now eyeing market approval from leading overseas agencies like the U.S. FDA and EMA.This is all to say China is on track to become a key force on the global biotech stage. That said, right now we're also at a crossroads moment as geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China pose potential risks to the flow of innovation. Despite these uncertainties, we see a likely outcome of co-opetition, a blend of competition and collaboration, as global pharma grapples with the dual imperatives of innovation and resilience. Of course, this rapid evolution brings both opportunities and challenges. It's prompting stakeholders around the world to rethink their strategies and collaborations in this shifting landscape of global medical innovation. As the China biotech industry evolves, the choices made by investors, policy makers, and healthcare communities, both within China and globally, will determine the therapies of the future. It is truly a dynamic space, and we'll continue to bring you updates. Thanks for listening to our thoughts on the market. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review, wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleagues today.

Dana Love, founder of PoobahAI (exited 5 companies, PhD in economics), breaks down why Web3 lags mainstream adoption and how AI-built software can unlock the space: “the future of Web3 is coding without coders.” We cover: the zero→one grind, macro shifts (globalization → nationalization), inflation realities, and why blockchains need to drop the barrier to projects, devs, and users. Dana shares Poobah's approach—virtual co-founder, multi-chain no/low-code, pre-audited on-chain digital objects, and real showcases (NFT ticketing, RWA real estate, car auction). We also talk go-to-market (students & exec MBAs), chain partnerships, and their seed round.Timestamps[00:00] Dana's thesis: coding without coders is Web3's future[00:01] Background: exits, policy PhD, AI/ML → crypto since 2011[00:02] Patterns from 5+ exits: first $1 of revenue + investment; hearing “your baby is ugly”[00:04] Macro: globalization → nationalization; inflation dynamics & wages[00:07] Startup stages: 0→1 vs 1→10 vs 10→50—don't over-process the first customer[00:08] Why Web3 adoption lags: tooling, UX, paucity of devs/projects/users[00:10] Public vs private chains; why transparency is a feature for upstarts[00:11] Naming Poobah & the “many hats” founder[00:12] Poobah overview: virtual co-founder, on-chain generation, digital objects (pre-audited contracts)[00:15] Code quality: making no-code generate good code; best-practice RAG/context[00:17] Focus: Web3 first—massive untapped value[00:18] GTM: students, MBAs, exec MBAs → enterprise wedge[00:19] Case: Princeton CS student ships NFT ticketing as a vibe-coder[00:20] B2B: chain licenses to drop coding barrier to near-zero[00:22] The “hackathon circus” & why broadening the builder base matters[00:23] Non-dev creators as founders: fine-arts → sticky NFTs[00:24] The Shopify moment for Web3 (payments/regulatory context)[00:27] RWAs: real estate fractionalization; car auctions; built in weeks[00:30] Will AI replace devs? Senior vs junior leverage; law firm analogy[00:36] Market will rebalance skills & pay; seniors x AI = force multiplier[00:37] Roadmap (6–12 mo): low-code launch → no-code, multi-chain MCP, virtual co-founder[00:38] The ask: chain partnerships, seed syndication, universities & exec MBAsConnecthttps://poobah.ai/https://www.linkedin.com/company/poobahai/https://www.linkedin.com/in/danalove/https://x.com/DanaFLoveDisclaimerNothing mentioned in this podcast is investment advice and please do your own research. Finally, it would mean a lot if you can leave a review of this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and share this podcast with a friend.Be a guest on the podcast or contact us - https://www.web3pod.xyz/

#dinheiro #Lucro #DayTrade #Trading #TraderBr #RendaExtra #Macroeconomia #Wyckoff Rocket Trader. A nova era do trading: https://bit.ly/RocketGainCastEle opera há 7 anos. Gosta de índice e dólar na B3, além de mercado americano. (S&P500 / Nasdaq / petroleo / ouro)Seu operacional é baseado em análise macro + análise preço/volume baseado em wyckoff com estudos de GEX (exposição em gamma) e estudos de volatilidade. Léo Molini é o convidado do GainCast nesta quarta-feira, 14 de maio, a partir das 17h. Ao vivo!Host: André Moraes e Roberto IndechConvidado: Léo Molini.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. Lyn picks up where Luke Gromen left off last week, sharing her views on what it would take to actually stop this train. http://bit.ly/48djn2y  

Our Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discusses how China's new approach to economic development is transforming domestic industries and reshaping the global investment landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Today – a consequential shift in China's economic policy is set to reshape domestic markets and send ripples across the global economy.It's Thursday, October 2nd at 2pm in Hong Kong.If you're an investor, it's important to understand China's new approach to economic development. The government's policies to drive a recovery from an economic slump are changing the rules of competition, profitability and growth. This affects Chinese companies, and in turn global supply chains and investment flows.Let's start with the term involution – what is it? In China, involution describes a cycle of excessive competition—think companies fighting for market share by slashing prices, ramping up production, and eroding profits, often to the point where nobody wins. The government's anti-involution campaign is a direct response to this problem.What factors prompted the launch of this anti-involution initiative? Since 2021, China has faced mounting deflationary pressures—falling prices, a housing market slump, and a surge in manufacturing investment that led to overcapacity. The September 2024 policy pivot began to address these issues, and in mid-2025 the government launched a more targeted anti-involution campaign. This phase focuses on reducing excessive competition and restoring pricing power through market-based consolidation.As we assess the potential effectiveness of China's anti-involution policy, our base case projects China's return on equity (ROE) to reach 13.3 percent by 2030, up from a cycle low of 10 percent in May 2024 and 11.6 percent by July 2025. In a bullish scenario, decisive reforms and demand-side stimulus could push ROE as high as 16.3 percent.We also expect earnings growth to accelerate, with our base case showing an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent in 2025, rising to 11.1 percent by 2027. We forecast valuations to normalize towards 12–13x forward price-to-earnings, in line with emerging market peers, but this could re-rate higher if reforms succeed.In terms of investment opportunities, we believe the EV Batteries industry will benefit the most from the Chinese government's anti-involution efforts. It's got strong policy support, cutting-edge technology, and a market that's consolidating fast—meaning the days of low-quality and excess capacity are fading. We're seeing a shift toward long-term, sustainable growth. Steel and Cement are industries where the state has a strong hand and capacity controls are well established. These factors help stabilize the market and open the door for steady gains. Finally, Airlines. While the industry has faced persistent losses, there isn't a[n] oversupply of seats, and regulatory coordination is strong. With the right reforms, Airlines could be poised for a significant turnaround.The sectors best positioned to benefit from China's anti-involution strategy are more domestically oriented. But this policy is bound to have global implications. And the ripples will likely extend to global supply chains, especially in Materials, Chemicals and Autos.Looking ahead, the pace and success of anti-involution will depend on further structural reforms, demand-side support, and the ability to digest industrial credit risks gradually. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could bring more clarity on tax, social welfare, and local government incentives.So, what should investors be paying attention to? China's anti-involution campaign is more than a policy tweak—it's a recalibration of how the country balances growth, innovation, and sustainability. The key is to track sector-level reforms, watch for signs of consolidation, and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and policy tailwinds.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

A listener asks if there are any comics that the comics dads think are essential reading for being a comic creator. They sure do... and it's not what you'd expect!Today's showRomance novels"Must-Read" Comics ListSummaryCartoonists Brad Guigar and Dave Kellett explore the value of romance novels in storytelling, contrasting their narrative preferences. Brad advocates for the insights gained from romance, while Dave expresses a preference for macro stories over micro narratives. Next, a listener asks if there are any comics that the comics dads think are essential reading for being a comic creator.This conversation delves into the evolution of comic storytelling, exploring influential works and characters that have shaped the medium. The speakers discuss the importance of understanding tropes, the impact of classic comics, and the significance of personal taste in appreciating the art form. They also touch on modern webcomics and the challenges of concluding long-running series, highlighting the diverse narratives and styles that continue to emerge in the comic world.TakeawaysReading romance novels can enhance storytelling skills.Different genres appeal to different narrative preferences.Tropes in romance are often embraced by writers.Macro stories focus on larger themes and movements.Personal experiences shape one's reading preferences.Humor and sentimentality play significant roles in storytelling.Comics can be a valuable medium for exploring complex narratives.Understanding comics can aid in effective communication.Readers should seek joy in their literary choices.Diverse genres offer unique insights into human experiences. Comic storytelling has evolved significantly over the years.Understanding classic tropes can enhance appreciation of modern comics.Influential collections like The Far Side and Bloom County shaped comic narratives.Characters like Wonder Woman and the Addams Family set standards for uniqueness.Empowered explores themes of self-confidence and societal expectations.Watchmen revolutionized the anti-hero narrative in comics.Garfield's early work showcased unique storytelling choices.Creative freedom allows for diverse comic styles and narratives.Personal taste plays a crucial role in comic appreciation.Cultural context influences how comics are received and understood.  You get great rewards when you join the ComicLab Community on Patreon$2 — Early access to episodes$5 — Submit a question for possible use on the show AND get the exclusive ProTips podcast. Plus $2-tier rewards.If you'd like a one-on-one consultation about your comic, book it now!Brad Guigar is the creator of Evil Inc and the author of The Webcomics Handbook. Dave Kellett is the creator of Sheldon and Drive.

Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

#582: Welcome To Commiefornia The 6th largest economy in the world is the state of California, but the wheels have come off this experiment, as society starts to dissolve from the inside. Between COVID and the Woke mind virus, the movie industry has been cracked wide open and dismantled from its previous glory. The $20/hour fast food minimum has employees looking over their shoulders for their robot replacements, as businesses flee to the exits in order to escape the regulations, taxes, and the anti-business ideology pushed by the Communists in positions of perceived power. Last one out, turn off the lights. --------- Video Watch the video version of the episode on the Macroaggressions Rumble Channel  https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions  --------- MACRO & Charlie Robinson Hypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwms The Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMm Website: www.Macroaggressions.io  Merch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/  Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast --------- Activist Post Family Activist Post: www.ActivistPost.com  Natural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com  --------- Support Our Sponsors C60 Power: https://go.shopc60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACRO Chemical Free Body: https://chemicalfreebody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver @ (800) 426-1836: https://macroaggressions.gold/ LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.com  EMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACRO Christian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macro  Above Phone: https://abovephone.com/macro/ Van Man: https://vanman.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACRO The Dollar Vigilante: https://dollarvigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471  Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACRO Augason Farms: https://augasonfarms.com/MACRO   ---------

In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley's chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed's response. They also discuss India's path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and I think that's been your forecast for quite some time – is that the U.S. was going to slow down a lot. Are we seeing that in the data? Is the U.S. economy slowing down or is everything just fine? How are you thinking about it? And what's the evidence that there's a slowdown and what are maybe the counterarguments that there's not that much of a slowdown? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the data doesn't support much of a slowdown. So yes, the economy did moderate in the first half of the year. I think the smart thing to do is average through Q1 and Q2 outcomes [be]cause there was a lot of volatility in trade and inventories. If you do that, the economy grew at about a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first half of the year, down from about 2.5 percent last year. So, some moderation there, but not a lot. We would argue that that probably isn't a tariff story. We would've expected tariffs and immigration policies to have greater downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. But to your question, incoming data in the third quarter has been really strong, and we're tracking growth somewhere around 3 percent right now.So, there's not a lot of evidence in hand at present that tariffs are putting significant downward pressure on growth. Seth Carpenter: So those growth numbers that you cite are on spending, which is normally the way we calculate things like GDP, consumption spending. But the labor market, I mean, non-farm payroll reports really have been quite weak. How do you reconcile that intellectual tension on the one hand spending holding up? On the other hand, that job creation [is] pretty, pretty weak. Michael Gapen: Yeah. I think the way that we would reconcile it is when we look at the data for the non-financial corporate sector, what appears to be clear is that non-labor costs have risen and tariffs would reside in that. And the data does show that what would be called unit non-labor costs. So, the cost per unit of output attributable to everything other than labor that rose a lot. What corporates apparently did was they reduced labor costs. And they absorbed some of it in lower profitability. What they didn't do was push price a lot. We'll see how long this tension can go on. It may be that corporates are in the early stages of passing through inflation, so we will see more inflation further out in a slowdown in spending. Or it may be that corporates are deciding that they will bear most of the burden of the tariffs, and cost control and efficiencies will be the order of the day. And maybe the Fed is right to be worried about downside risk to employment. So, I reconcile it that way. I think corporates have absorbed most of the tariff shock to date, and we're still in the early stages of seeing whether or not they will be able to pass it along to consumers. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then let's think about the Fed, the central bank. Yesterday, I talked to Chetan about the Bank of Japan. There reflation is real. Talked to Jens yesterday about the ECB where inflation has come down. So, those other developed market economies, the prescriptions for monetary policy are pretty straightforward. The Fed, on the other hand, they're in a bit of a bind in that regard. What do you think the Fed is trying to achieve here? How would you describe their strategy? Michael Gapen: I would describe their strategy as a recalibration, which is, I think, you know, technical monetary policy jargon for – where their policy stance is now; is not correct to balance risks to the economy. Earlier this year, the Fed thought that the primary risk was to persistent inflation. Boy, the effective tariff rate was rising quickly and that should pass due to inflation. We should be worried about upside risk to inflation. And then employment decelerated rapidly and has stayed low now for four consecutive months. Yes, labor supply has come down, but there's also a lot of evidence that labor demand has come down. So, I think what the Fed is saying is the balance of risks have become more balanced. They need to worry about inflation, but now they also need to worry about the labor market. So having a restrictive policy stance in their mind doesn't make sense. The Fed's not arguing – we need to get below neutral. We need to get easy. They're just saying we probably need to move in the direction of neutral. That will allow us to respond better if inflation stays firm or the labor market weakens. So, a recalibration meaning, you know, we think two more rate cuts into year end get a little bit closer to neutral, and that puts them in a better spot to respond to the evolving economic conditions. Seth Carpenter: All right. That makes a lot of sense. We can't end a conversation this year about the Fed, though, without touching on the fact that the White House has been putting a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve trying to get Chair Powell and his committee to push interest rates substantially lower than where they are now. Michael Gapen: You've noticed? Seth Carpenter: I've noticed. From my understanding, a lot of people in markets have noticed as well. There's been some turnover among policy makers. We have a new member of the Board of Governors of the Fed. This discussion about Federal Reserve independence. How do you think about it? Is Chair Powell changing policy based on political pressure? Michael Gapen: I don't think so. I think there's enough evidence in the labor market data to support the Fed's shift in stance. We have certainly highlighted immigration controls, what they would mean for the labor force. And how that means even a slowing, growing economy could keep the unemployment rate low. But it's also fair to say labor demand has come down. If labor demand were still very strong, you might see job openings higher, you might see vacancies higher. You may even see faster wage growth. So, I think the Fed's right to look at the labor market and say, ‘Okay, on the surface, it looks like a no hire, no fire labor market. We can live with that, but there are some layoffs underneath. There are signs of weakness. Slack is getting created slowly.' So, I think the Fed has solid ground to stand on in terms of shifting their view. But you're right, that looking forward into 2026 with the end of Powell's term as chair and likely turnover in other areas of the board. Whether the Fed maintains a conventional reaction function or one that's perhaps more politically driven remains an open question – and I think is a risk for investors. Seth Carpenter: I want to change things up a lot here. Chetan, yesterday you and I talked about China. We talked about Japan. Two really big economies that I think are well known to investors.Another economy in Asia that you cover is India. For a long time, we have said India was going to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. Do you still see it to be the case? That India's got a really bright growth outlook? And in the current circumstance with tariffs going on, how do you think India is fairing vis-a-vis U.S. tariffs? Chetan Ahya: So yes, Seth, we are still optimistic about India's growth outlook. Having said that, you know, there are two issues that the economy has been going through. Number one is that the domestic demand had slowed down because of previous tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. And at the same time, we have now seen this trade tensions, which will slow global trade. But also, directly India will be affected by the fact that the U.S. has imposed 50 percent tariff on close to 60 percent of India's exports to the U.S. So, both these issues are affecting the outlook in the near term. We still don't have clarity on what happens on trade tensions, but what we have seen is that the government has really worked quite hard to get the economy going from domestic demand perspective. And so, they have taken up three sets of policy actions. They have reduced household income tax. The central bank has cut interest rates because inflation has been in control. And at the same time, they have now just recently announced reduction in Goods and Services Tax, which is akin to like consumption tax. And so, these three policy actions together we think will drive domestic demand growth from the fourth quarter of this year itself. It will still be not back up to strong growth levels. And for that we still need that solution to trade policy uncertainty. But I think there will be a significant recovery coming up in the next few months. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks for that, Chetan. It's such an interesting story going on there in India. Well, Michael, Chetan, thank the three of you for joining me today in this conversation. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

One of the most common questions I get from women is how lean is too lean?Topics:(00:08) - How lean can you get while being healthy? (00:40) - New training app announcement! (02:46) - I like all versions of me (04:36) - Why people are asking about being lean so much (05:52) - Physical factors in being lean (20:35) - Sometimes it's the blind leading the blind (28:51) - Body fat ranges (34:51) - The real answer to how lean can I get is...

Despite large deficits, booming capital expenditures and a looser regulatory environment, the Fed appears poised to cut rates further to support the slowing labor market. This could set the stage for a level of corporate risk-taking not seen since the 1990s.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the forces that could heat up corporate activity in 2026 – if the labor market can hold up.It's Monday, September 29th at 2pm in London.Bill Martin, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve in the 50's and 60's, famously joked that “it was the Fed's job to take away the punch bowl just when the party is getting good.” That quote seems relevant because a host of trends are pointing to a pretty lively scene over the next 12 months. First, the U.S. government is spending significantly more than it's taking in. This deficit running at about 6.5 percent of the size of the whole economy is providing stimulus. It's only been larger during the great financial crisis, COVID and World War II. It's punch. Next to the corporate sector. As you've heard us discuss on this podcast, we here at Morgan Stanley think that AI related spending could amount to one of the largest waves of investment ever recorded – dwarfing the shale boom of the 2010s and the telecommunication spending of the late 1990s. Importantly, we think this spending is ramping up right now. Morgan Stanley estimates that investments by large tech companies will increase by 70 percent this year, and between 2024 and 2027, we think this spending is going to go up by two and a half times. Note that this doesn't even account for the enormous amount of power and electricity infrastructure that's going to be need to be built to support all this. Hence more economic punch. Finally, there's a deregulatory push. My bank research colleagues believe that lower capital requirements for U.S. banks could boost their balance sheet capacity by an additional $1 trillion in risk weighted terms. And a more supportive regulatory environment for mergers should help activity there continue to grow. Again, more punch.Heavy government spending, heavy corporate spending, more bank lending and risk taking capacity. And what's next from the Federal Reserve? Well, they're not exactly taking the punch away. We think that the Fed is set to cut rates five more times to a midpoint of two and 7/8ths. The Fed's supportive efforts are based on a real fear that labor markets are already starting to slow, despite the other supportive factors mentioned previously. And a broad weakening of the economy would absolutely warrant such support from the Fed. But if growth doesn't slow – large deficits, booming capital expenditure, a looser regulatory environment, and now Fed rate cuts – would all support even more corporate risk taking possibly in a way that we haven't seen since the 1990s. For credit, that boom would be preferable to a sharp slowing of the economy, but it comes with its own risks.Expect talk of this scenario next year to grow if economic data does hold up.Thanks as always for listening. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research start our week by examining the latest macro news and trends moving global markets.