Podcasts about Macro

In Episode 427 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Le Shrub, the author of the Shrubstack Substack who in his previous life was part of a famous team known for putting on “The Big Short” during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. This recording is the result of a phone call Demetri made to Le Shrub to catch up on markets and life after returning from a recent trip to Italy where he spent time with some guests of the podcast discussing the effect that rapid technological changes are having on the evolution of human societies, culture, politics, and the economy. Le Shrub and Kofinas spend the first hour exploring some of these themes and the collective sense in Western countries that our governing systems, societal norms, and democratic institutions are unraveling at a quickening pace, hurdling us toward some inexorable economic and political reset. They shift their focus in the second hour toward the markets as Le Shrub educates listeners on his investment process and how it has fared in this increasingly chaotic information landscape where signal is often drowned by a cacophony of bad information spread by malicious actors, uninformed clout chasers, and bots. This includes a discussion about how Le Shrub has sought to monetize the second order effects of the most recent Trump tariffs on copper and the Brazilian economy. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/10/2025

Based on the latest announcement, the effective US tariff rate on imports is now about 18%, the highest since the 1930s. Despite this, says Chief Investment Strategist of Investec Wealth & Investment International Chris Holdsworth, markets remain relatively calm – and the US equity market is still pricing in strong earnings growth – suggesting that the Trump administration won't follow through on many of the tariffs. Investec Focus Radio SA

**You're invited to join us Tuesday evening for Macro ‘n Chill, an online gathering where we can listen to and talk about this episode. Tuesday July 15, 8pm ET/5 pm PT Click here to registerThis week we're releasing an interview Steve did as a guest of Jim Byrne, host of MMT101 podcast. Steve and Jim have much in common, so it's interesting to hear how their approaches differ. In part, this is related to the conditions of their nationalities. Jim, in Scotland, isn't faced with the myth of political democracy. They have a devolved government, under the thumb of Westminster, with no control over the economic levers. The demands are straightforward: more money... and independence. Jim says he prefers to see MMT “purely as a technical – almost a technical description – with a bit of theory thrown in there, because of course T stands for theory.” Steve describes his 15-year journey with MMT. Originally, he focused on the “wonky stuff,” the mechanics of the monetary system. He came to understand that people aren't interested until they can see how it relates to their own lives. Today he maintains that MMT should be connected to real-world issues such as class struggle, poverty, student debt, and geopolitical conflicts like the horrific situation in Gaza. The episode is a great conversation between two MMT activists. Despite their differences, they find they have much in common. Jim Byrne is currently developing an MMT foundation course aimed at beginners and intermediate learners, as well as people who already know about economics but are curious about Modern Monetary Theory. Follow his work and the MMT101 podcast at mmt101.substack.com @MMT101DotORG

Phones Show Chat 862 - Show Notes - A Galaxy of OPPOrtunities! Steve Litchfield and Ted Salmon MeWe Groups Join Links PSC - PSC Photos - PSC Classifieds - Steve - Ted News, Feedback, Topics Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 Samsung Galaxy Z Flip7 Samsung Galaxy Z Flip7 FE Samsung Galaxy Watch8 and Classic Device Week Sony Xperia 1 Mk VI Xiaomi 15 Ultra Camera Kit and Inspirations! The Xiaomi 15 Ultra is a one trick pony - but WHAT a trick! Oppo Find X8 Pro Oppo Find X8 Pro vs Oppo Find X8 Ultra My iPhone story. Enticed into iOS for the 2020s Multiple Devices and Location Tracking Steve's Top Safety Tips for Power Banks in the House Bangin' On About it Again! Surface Duo with Android 16, Duo-DE platform, coming soon! Photo of the Week from MeWe PSC Photos Group Drops, Drops, Drops by Sharang Bhedasgaonkar using a Moto Edge 40 Neo in Macro mode: Links of Interest PodHubUK - Steve on Bluesky - Ted on BlueSky - Ted on Mastodon - MeWe PSC Group - PSC Photos - PSC Videos - WhateverWorks - Camera Creations - TechAddictsUK - Chewing Gum for the Ears - Projector Room - Coffee Time - Ted's Salmagundi - Steve's Rants, Raves, and Reviews - Steve's YouTube Shorts - Thank Steve on PayPal - Thank Ted on PayPal

Após uma semana agitada em Brasília, nossos analistas falam sobre os impactos da tarifa de 50% anunciada pelo presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, às importações brasileiras, tanto do ponto de vista político quanto econômico, olhando também para as eleições de 2026.Para além do impasse tarifário, nosso time traz informações relevantes sobre outros temas que movimentaram a semana, como a reforma do Imposto de Renda, nova discussão sobre as regras para pagamento dos precatórios e a Medida Provisória editada pelo governo na tarde desta sexta-feira para conter aumentos na conta de luz.Acompanhe o nosso conteúdo também no aplicativo XP Política e Macro, disponível nas lojas de aplicativos para IOS e Android.

As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Bitcoin has quietly surged to a new all-time high above $112,000, driven less by crypto-specific news and more by broader macroeconomic trends. In this episode, NLW explores how Bitcoin's latest rally isn't a sudden frenzy but rather the inevitable outcome of ongoing dollar weakness, shifting treasury policies, and persistent market uncertainty. As institutions and investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a necessary hedge against global financial volatility, the question isn't whether Bitcoin will rise further—it's how high and how quickly. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Want to learn more about macro social work jobs? Grab my free e-course, where I break down job titles, salary ranges, and employers hiring macro social workers right now. Here is the link: macroandpaid.comRegister for my upcoming live webinar at: macroandpaid.com----What type of macro social work do you want to do?If you've been telling yourself you want to “do policy” or “get into advocacy” but can't really explain what that means, this video is for you.In this live conversation, I'm breaking down what's actually holding so many social workers back from getting aligned macro social work jobs.And it's not your degree or your experience.It's a lack of career clarity.Here's what I talked about:✔ Why saying “I want a macro social work job” isn't enough.✔ What occupational vagueness is and how it keeps social workers stuck in case management.✔ A real client story: from 20+ years as a school social worker to a macro job in immigrant integration research.✔ The 3 reasons clarity must come before your résumé, cover letter, or job search.✔ How to test your own clarity with one simple (and powerful) exercise.✔ Why spamming job boards is a symptom, not a strategy.Take the first step if you're in a case management job you never meant to stay in and are unsure how to pivot to macro social work.Attend my upcoming live webinar:“How You're Already Qualified to Get a Macro Social Work Job.”I'll teach you the top 5 experiences that qualify you for macro social work roles, even if all you have done is case management.You'll see real job descriptions, learn how macro social work employers talk about the work, and walk away knowing your current experience that qualifies you for the macro jobs you want.The link to register is in the bio @the_mswcoach and macroandpaid.comHappy macro career planning,Marthea Pitts, MSW

Na jaren van juridisch bekvechten is de kogel door de kerk: Picnic is een supermarkt. In het hoger beroep, in de zaak door vakbonden FNV en CNV, ving de online supermarkt twee weken geleden WEER bot. Picnic mag aan 35.000 medewerkers nabetalingen betalen en moet zich aan het supermarkt cao houden, met alle kosten van dien. Wat gaat dat betekenen voor het e-commercebedrijf, zoals Picnic zichzelf noemt? En: komen de Europese prijsverschillen door de (online)supermarkten of door de leveranciers? Michiel Muller van Picnic is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Boardroompanel The Boston Consulting Group loopt behoorlijke reputatieschade op na het lekken van een controversieel rapport. En: Nederlandse beursfondsen laten diversiteitsdoelen varen. Dat en meer bespreken we in het Boardroompanel met: Stefan Peij, directeur en oprichter van The Governance Academy en Harm-Jan de Kluiver, hoogleraar ondernemingsrecht aan de UvA. Luister l Boardroompanel l Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Al jaren is er discussie en onduidelijkheid over de wetgeving rondom schijnzelfstandigheid. De wet Vbar, die recent naar de Tweede Kamer ging, moet daar verandering in brengen. Wat voor gevolgen heeft deze wet voor jonge bijverdieners, die sporadisch een dienst op zich nemen? En: hoe onderscheiden freelanceplatforms als YoungOnes zich van uitzendbureaus? Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Boardroom De webshop op TikTok moet de toekomst worden. En: Franchisenemers nemen afscheid van Blokker. Dat en meer bespreken we in het ondernemerspanel met: Karlijn L'Ortye Serie ondernemer, expert in leiderschaps- en organisatieontwikkeling en oprichter van social impact platform MO the movement. Luister l Boardroompanel l Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Repasamos las cifras macroeconómicas más relevantes y situamos previsiones sobre los próximos pasos de la Fed con Enrique Díaz-Álvarez, director de Riesgos de Ebury .

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. They discuss why Lyn believes investors should run their portfolios hot in today's environment. With fiscal policy now driving market outcomes more than monetary, Lyn argues this backdrop supports further upside for equity markets. https://bit.ly/4lFuowO  

The ultimate market outcomes of President Trump's tactical tariff escalation may be months away. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas takes a look at implications for investors now.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today: The latest on U.S. tariffs and their market impact. It's Thursday, July 10th at 12:30pm in New York. It's been a newsy week for U.S. trade policy, with tariff increases announced across many nations. Here's what we think investors need to know. First, we think the U.S. is in a period of tactical escalation for tariff policy; where tariffs rise as the U.S. explores its negotiating space, but levels remain in a range below what many investors feared earlier this year. We started this week expecting a slight increase in U.S. tariffs—nothing too dramatic, maybe from 13 percent to around 15 percent driven by hikes in places like Vietnam and Japan. But what we got was a bit more substantial. The U.S. announced several tariff hikes, set to take effect later, allowing time for negotiations. If these new measures go through, tariffs could reach 15 to 20 percent, significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, though far below the 25 to 30 percent levels that appeared possible back in April. It's a good reminder that U.S. trade policy remains a moving target because the U.S. administration is still focused on reducing goods trade deficits and may not yet perceive there to be substantial political and economic risk of tariff escalation. Per our economists' recent work on the lagged effects of tariffs, this reckoning could be months away. Second, the implications of this tactical escalation are consistent with our current cross-asset views. The higher tariffs announced on a variety of geographies, and products like copper, put further pressure on the U.S. growth story, even if they don't tip the U.S. into recession, per the work done by our economists. That growth pressure is consistent with our views that both government and corporate bond yields will move lower, driving solid returns. It's also insufficient pressure to get in the way of an equity market rally, in the view of our U.S. equity strategy team. The fiscal package that just passed Congress might not be a major boon to the economy overall, but it does help margins for large cap companies, who by the way are more exposed to tariffs through China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU – rather than the countries on whom tariff increases were announced this week. Finally, How could we be wrong? Well, pay attention to negotiations with those geographies we just mentioned: Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China. These are much bigger trading partners not just for U.S. companies, but the U.S. overall. So meaningful escalation here can drive both top line and bottom line effects that could challenge equities and credit. In our view, tariffs with these partners are likely to land near current levels, but the path to get there could be volatile. For the U.S., Mexico and Canada, background reporting suggests there's mutual interest in maintaining a low tariff bloc, including exceptions for the product-specific tariffs that the U.S. is imposing. But there are sticking points around harmonizing trade policy. The dynamic is similar with China. Tariffs are already steep—among the highest anywhere. While a recent narrow deal—around semiconductors for rare earths—led to a temporary reduction from triple-digit levels, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental issues. So when it comes to negotiations with the U.S.' biggest trading partners, there's sticking points. And where there's sticking points there's potential for escalation that we'll need to be vigilant in monitoring. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market please leave us a review. And tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

In this episode of Building Better Developers with AI, Rob Broadhead and Michael Meloche delve into the challenges of burnout and overwork, discussing how developers can regain control over their time. By emphasizing the importance of finding balance in software development, they offer practical techniques for staying productive without compromising well-being. Rethinking Hustle Culture in Software Development “Productivity isn't about motion. It's about momentum—in the right direction.” – Rob Broadhead The myth of endless hustle runs deep in tech. Developers often mistake working late nights for progress—but it usually leads to burnout and declining code quality. The key to achieving balance in software development is recognizing when it's time to slow down. Warning Signs You're Losing Balance as a Developer Declining communication or code quality Constant frustration or tunnel vision Difficulty disconnecting from work Feeling like you're always behind The solution often lies not in working harder—but in pausing with purpose. Using Strategic Pauses to Regain Balance in Software Development One of the most effective ways of finding balance in software development is to embrace micro and macro pauses. These breaks help reset your mindset and restore focus. Micro breaks: Pomodoro sprints, quick walks, or code reviews Macro breaks: Weekend retreats, sabbaticals, or screen-free days Michael notes that even seasoned pros struggle with stepping away. But taking intentional time off isn't a luxury—it's a necessity. Developer Tip: Code Commit and Mental Reset When feeling overwhelmed, commit your progress, walk away, and revisit it later with a fresh mindset. This small act can realign your thinking and productivity. The Role of Pivoting in Achieving Work-Life Balance in Tech Sometimes a pause isn't enough—you need to pivot. And in the context of finding balance in software development, pivoting means realigning your goals, projects, or even your work relationships. Types of pivots discussed: Switching tools or tech stacks Killing ineffective features Saying no to toxic clients Shifting job roles or responsibilities When to Pivot for Developer Success Are you stuck solving the wrong problem? Are sunk costs keeping you on the wrong path? Is your current direction still aligned with your goals? If not, it may be time to pivot and prioritize balance. Tools and Tactics for Finding Balance in Software Careers To close the episode, Rob and Michael outline several tools for creating balance in your developer workflow: Timeboxing and Pomodoro sessions Weekly journaling to identify stress triggers Asynchronous communication to reduce meetings Workspace adjustments for deep work vs. ideation Optimize Your Work Environment for Software Development Balance Experiment with different workspaces for different tasks—coding, brainstorming, or planning. These physical cues help your brain switch gears and stay fresh. Final Thoughts: Building a Sustainable Career in Software Development Finding balance in software development is more than a productivity hack—it's a mindset shift. Whether you're pausing for five minutes or pivoting away from a demanding client, your ability to reset and refocus determines long-term success. When developers learn to pause with purpose and pivot with intention, they don't just write better code—they build better careers. Stay Connected: Join the Developreneur Community We invite you to join our community and share your coding journey with us. Whether you're a seasoned developer or just starting, there's always room to learn and grow together. Contact us at info@develpreneur.com with your questions, feedback, or suggestions for future episodes. Together, let's continue exploring the exciting world of software development. Additional Resources Avoid Burnout – Give Time To Yourself Detecting And Beating Burnout – An Interview with Victor Manzo Three Signs Of Burnout – Address These Before Its Too Late Three Ways To Avoid Burnout Building Better Developers With AI Podcast Videos – With Bonus Content

US Treasury yields are the lowest among the G3+, once hedged back to US dollars. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's US interest rate strategist, and Huw Worthington, his European rate strategy counterpart, take up the topic in this episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The analysts discuss central bank policy action and government bond markets in general. They also discuss why long-end yields have been more sensitive to fears of rising deficits than shorter-maturity bonds. Terminal users can view their note on how Treasuries are the lowest-yielding sovereign bond market, after the currency hedge, by clicking here.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Macro met Boot en Mujagić - 10-7-2025 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Con Diego Puertas, de Serenity Markets.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses whether demand for U.S. stocks has fallen and where fund flows are surging. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.Today – is the demand for U.S. assets declining? Let's look at the recent trends in global investment flows.It's Wednesday, July 9th at 1pm in New York.The U.S. equity market has reached an all-time high, but at the same time lingering uncertainty about U.S. trade and tariff policies is forcing global investors to consider the riskiness of U.S. assets. And so the big question we need to ask is: are investors – particularly foreign investors – fleeing U.S. assets?This question comes from recent data around fund flows to global equities. And we have to acknowledge that demand for U.S. stocks overall has declined, going by high-frequency data. But at the same time, we think this idea is exaggerated. So why is that? As many listeners know, fund flows – which represent the net movement of money into and out of various investment vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs – are an important gauge of investor sentiment and market trends. So what are fund flows really telling us about investors' sentiment towards U.S. equities? It would be nice to get an unequivocal answer, but of course, the devil is always in the details. And the problem is that different data sources and frequencies across different market segments don't always lead to the same conclusions. Weekly data across global equity ETF and mutual funds from Lipper show that international investors were net buyers through most of April and May. But the pace of buying has slowed year-to-date versus 2024. Still, it remains much higher than during the same period in 2021 through 2023. Treasury TIC data point to something similar – a slowdown in foreign demand, but not significant net selling. So where are the flows going, if not to the U.S.? They are going to the rest of the world, but more particularly, Europe. Europe stocks, in fact, have been the biggest beneficiary of decreasing flows to the U.S. Nearly $37 billion U.S. has gone into Europe-focused equity funds year-to-date. This is significantly higher than the run-rates over the prior five years. What's more notable here is that year-to-date, flows to European-focused ETFs and mutual funds dominated those targeting Japan and Emerging Markets. This suggests that Europe is now the premier destination for equity fund flows, with very little demand spillovers to other regions' equity markets.These shifts have yet to show up in the allocation data, which tracks how global asset managers invest in stocks regionally. Global equity funds' portfolio weights to Rest-of-the-World has gone up by roughly the same amount as allocation to the U.S. has come down. But allocation to the U.S. has actually gone down by roughly the same amount, as its share in global equity indices; which means that If allocation to the U.S. has changed, it's simply because the U.S. is now a smaller part of equity indices. Meanwhile, an estimated U.S.$9 billion from Rest-of-the World went into international equity funds, which excludes U.S. stocks altogether. Granted, it's not a lot; but scaled for fund assets, it's the highest net flows international equities have seen. In other words, some investors are choosing to invest in equities excluding U.S. altogether. These trends are unlikely to reverse as long as lingering policy uncertainty dampens demand for U.S.-based assets. But as we've argued in our mid-year outlook, there are very few alternative markets to the U.S. dollar markets right now. U.S. stocks might start to see less marginal flows from foreign investors – to the benefit of Rest-of-the-World equities, especially Europe. But demand is unlikely to dry up completely over the next 12 months. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

On today's episode, we sit down with the founders of Market Radar, Arty and Gamma, alongside John Gillen, to decode the signals flashing across macro and crypto markets right now. Their quant models don't trade on gut feeling; they trade on cold, hard data. And guess what? We might be standing at the edge of a full-blown risk-on regime. But don't ape in just yet…~~~~~

Want to learn more about macro social work jobs? Grab my free e-course, where I break down job titles, salary ranges, and employers hiring macro social workers right now. Here is the link: https://macroandpaid.com/Register for my upcoming live webinar at: https://macroandpaid.com/-----Is Your Social Work Career What You Expected? #replayI went live to have a much-needed conversation for the social workers who feel like their career isn't what they expected.Here's a quick recap:We talked about career expectation misalignment.What happens when the job you're doing now doesn't reflect the kind of social worker you thought you would become?I broke down three signs that this might be happening in your career:1️⃣ You've had to quiet parts of yourself to stay employed.2️⃣ You didn't expect to feel this disconnected from who you are.3️⃣ You've started to resent the version of yourself that your job requires.This conversation isn't about burnout.It's about realizing that the problem isn't your skills, your degree, or your heart.It's that the job you're in isn't aligned with who you are or why you got into social work in the first place.If any of what I described in this video resonated with you, I want to invite you to my live webinar on August 12.It's called:“How You're Already Qualified to Get a Macro Social Work Job.”I'll be breaking down the top 5 experiences that qualify you for macro work jobs right now.Even if you've only done case management or direct service.And I'll show you real job posts so you can see it in black and white.

El anuncio del presidente Donald Trump de que planea implementar un arancel del 50% a las importaciones de cobre. Lo comentamos con Joaquín Robles, director de Ventas de Banco BiG.

Waar andere winkelketens het moeilijk hebben in de winkelstraat lijkt Apple-reseller Amac zich met gemak staande houden. Zijn Apple- producten gewoon razend populair of heeft Amac een geheim? En: wat gaan de importheffingen van president Donald Trump doen voor de verkoop van Apple-producten in Nederland? Roelof de Rijk van Apple-reseller Amac is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Lobbypanel Ziekenhuizen en wetenschappers slaan alarm over een mogelijke stop op dierproeven. Valt de Eerste Kamer nog te overtuigen? En: Europese bedrijven willen dat de Europese Commissie de AI-wet die volgende maand ingaat uitstelt. Komt de lobby te laat op gang? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het lobbypanel met: Marja Ruigrok, wethouder Economie bij de gemeente Haarlemmermeer en Peter van Keulen, oprichter van Public Matters Luister l Lobbypanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. De economische stand van Nederland Van een tekort aan stroom tot een teveel aan stikstof, van woningnood tot oorlogseconomie, en van een lokale subsidie tot mondiale handelsoorlog; hoe staat de Nederlandse economie er eigenlijk voor? En welke impact heeft de macro-economie op jouw portemonnee? In deze serie bespreekt presentator Thomas van Zijl elke woensdag met economen en andere deskundigen 'de economische stand van Nederland'. Vandaag gaat het over hoe klimaatveranderingen de economie beïnvloeden met Wouter Botzen, hoogleraar Economie van Klimaatverandering en Natuurrampen & directeur IVM, verbonden aan de VU. Live horen? Luister elke woensdag om 13.10 naar BNR Zakendoen. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Strategy team and Aerospace & Defense Analyst Ross Law unpack what a reshaped defense industry means for sustainability, ethics and long-term investment strategy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ross Law: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ross Law from Morgan Stanley's European Aerospace and Defense team.Arushi Agarwal: And I'm Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Research Team.Ross Law: Today, a topic that's rapidly defining the boundaries of sustainable investing and technological leadership – the use of AI in defense.It's Tuesday, July 8th at 3pm in London. At the recent NATO summit, member countries decided to boost their core defense spending target from 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This big jump is sure to spark a wave of innovation in defense, particularly in AI and military technology. It's clear that Europe is focusing on rearmament with AI playing a major role. In fact, AI is revolutionizing everything from unmanned systems and cyber defense to simulation training and precision targeting. It's changing the game for how nations prepare for – and engage in – conflict. And with all these changes come serious challenges. Investors, policy makers and technologists are facing some tough questions that sit at the intersection of two of Morgan Stanley's four key themes: The Multipolar World and Tech Diffusion.So, Arushi, to set the stage, how is the concept of sustainability evolving to include national security and defense, particularly in Europe?Arushi Agarwal: You know, Ross, it's fascinating to see how much this space has evolved over the past year. Geopolitical tensions have really pushed national security much higher on the sustainability agenda. We're seeing a structural shift in sentiment towards defense investments. While historically defense companies were largely excluded by sustainability funds, we're now seeing asset managers revisiting these exclusions, especially around conventional and nuclear weapons. Some are even launching thematic funds, specifically focused on security and resilience.However, in the absence of standard methodologies to assess weapon related exposures, evaluate sector-specific ESG risks and determine transparency, there is no clear consensus on what sustainability focused managers can hold. Greater policy focus has created the need to identify a long-term approach to investing in this sector, one that is cognizant of ethical issues. Investors are now increasingly asking whether rapid technological integration might allow for a more forward-looking, risk aware approach to investing in national security.Ross Law: So, it's no news that Europe has historically underspent on defense. Now, the spending goal is moving to 3.5 percent of GDP to try and catch up. Our estimates suggest this could mean an additional $200 billion per year in additional spend – with a focus on equipment over personnel, at least for the time being. With this new focus, how is AI shaping the European rearmament strategy?Arushi Agarwal: Well, AI appears to be at the core of EU's 800 billion euro rearmament plan. The commission has been quite clear that escalating tensions have not only led to a new arms race but also provoked a global technological race. Now to think about it, AI, quantum, biotech, robotics, and hypersonic are key inputs not only for long-term economic growth, but also for military pre-eminence.In our base case, we estimate that total NATO military spend into AI applications will potentially more than double to $112 billion by 2030. This is at a 4 percent AI investment allocation rate. If this allocation rate increases to 10 percent as anticipated by European deep tech firms, then NATOs AI military spend could grow sixfold to $306 billion by 2030 in our bull case.So, Ross, you were at the Paris Air Show recently where companies demonstrated their latest product capabilities. Which AI applications are leading the way in defense right now? Ross Law: Yeah, it was really quite eye-opening. We've identified nine key AI applications, reshaping defense, and our Application Readiness Radar shows that Cybersecurity followed by Unmanned Systems exhibit the highest level of preparedness from a public and private investment perspective.Cybersecurity is a major priority due to increased proliferation of cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, and this technology can be used for both defensive and offensive measures. Unmanned systems are also really taking off, no pun intended, mainly driven by the rise in drone warfare that's reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine.At the Paris Airshow, we saw demonstrations of “Wingman” crewed and uncrewed aircraft. There have also been several public and private partnerships in this area within our coverage. Another area gaining traction is simulation and war gaming. As defense spending increases and potentially leads to more military personnel, we see this theme in high demand in the coming years.Arushi Agarwal: And how are European Aerospace and Defense companies positioning themselves in terms of AI readiness?Ross Law: Well, they're really making significant advancements. We've assessed AI technology readiness for our A&D companies across six different verticals: the number of applications; dual-use capabilities; AI pricing power; responsible AI policy; and partnerships on both external and internal product categories.What's really interesting is that European A&D companies have higher pricing power relative to the U.S. counterparts, and a higher percentage are both enablers and adopters of AI. To accelerate AI integration, these companies are increasingly partnering with government research arms, leading software firms, as well as peers and private players.Arushi Agarwal: And some of these same technologies can also be used for civilian purposes. Could you share some examples with us?Ross Law: The dual use potential is really significant. Various companies in our coverage are using their AI capabilities for civilian applications across multiple domains. For example, geospatial capabilities can also be used for wildfire management and tracking deforestation. Machine learning can be used for maritime shipping and port surveillance. But switching gears slightly, if we talk about the regulatory developments that are emerging in Europe to address defense modernization, what does this mean, Arushi, for society, the industry and investors?Arushi Agarwal: There's quite a lot happening on the regulatory front. The European Commission is working on a defense omnibus simplification proposal aimed at speeding up defense investments in the EU. It's planning to publish a guidance notice on how defense investment will fit within the sustainable finance framework. It's also making changes to its sustainability reporting directive. If warranted, the commission will make additional adjustments to reflect the needs of the defense industry in its sustainability reporting obligations. The Sustainable Fund Reform is another important development. While the sustainability fund regulation doesn't prohibit investment into the defense sector, the commission is seeking to provide clarification on how defense investment goals sit within a sustainability framework.Additionally at the European Security Summit in June, the European Defense Commissioner indicated that a roadmap focusing on the modernization of European defense will be published in autumn. This will have a special focus on AI and quantum technologies. For investors, whilst exclusions easing has started to take place, pickup in individual positioning has been slow. As investors ramp up on the sector, we believe these regulatory developments can serve as catalysts, providing clear demand and trend signals for the sector.Ross Law: So finally, in this context, how can companies and investors navigate these ethical considerations responsibly?Arushi Agarwal: So, in the note we highlight that AI risk management requires the ability to tackle two types of challenges. First, technical challenges, which can be mitigated by embedding boundaries and success criteria directly into the design of the AI model. For example, training AI systems to refuse harmful requests. Second challenges are more open-ended and ambiguous set of challenges that relate to coordinating non-proliferation among countries and preventing misuse by bad actors. This set of challenges requires continuous interstate dialogue and cooperation rather than purely technical fixes.From an investor perspective, closer corporate engagement will be key to navigating these debates. Ensuring firms have clear documentation of their algorithms and decision-making processes, human in the loop systems, transparency around data sets used to train the AI models are some of the engagement points we mention in our note.Ultimately, I think the key is balance. On the one hand, we have to recognize the legitimate security needs that defense technologies address. And on the other hand, there's the need to ensure appropriate safeguards and oversight.Ross Law: Arushi, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arushi Agarwal: It was great speaking with you, Ross,Ross Law: And thank you all for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

SummaryIn this conversation, Keegan Downer shares his transformative journey from battling a nine-year alcohol addiction to discovering the healing powers of mushrooms and natural supplements. He discusses the misconceptions surrounding addiction, the role of mindfulness in recovery, and how microdosing psilocybin can lead to profound changes in mental health. Keegan also introduces his company, Mindful Meds, which aims to provide accessible and effective mushroom-based products for those struggling with various mental health issues.Chapters00:00 Keegan's Journey: From Addiction to Healing10:01 Understanding Addiction: The Lies We Believe14:04 The Role of Mushrooms in Recovery20:17 Mindful Meds: Transforming Lives with Nature27:59 The Power of Community and Connection28:29 Exploring Psilocybin and Medicinal Mushrooms29:59 Mindful Meds: A New Approach to Mental Health32:20 Product Innovations for Various Needs34:52 Microdosing: Best Practices and Experiences38:59 The Science Behind Psilocybin's Effects43:43 Macro vs. Microdosing: Understanding the Differences48:01 Expectations and Guidance for New Users

#amazonppc #bidoptimization #macrovsmicrobidsEpisode 104 dives deep into the difference between macro and micro bid optimizations for Amazon Ads, emphasizing the need to use the right time frames for each approach.Macro optimizations leverage longer date ranges and tighter bid adjustments to manage overall account performance with stability, while micro optimizations focus on recent data to quickly correct sudden spikes in spend or ACoS by targeting only the most problematic campaigns or keywords.Stephen and Andrew highlight the importance of not overreacting with account-wide changes, instead recommending precise, data-driven adjustments to the few high-impact areas that truly move the needle.Ultimately, the key takeaway is to balance risk and reward by matching your optimization strategy to your business goals and current account conditions for safer, more effective results.

Want to learn more about macro social work jobs? Grab my free e-course, where I break down job titles, salary ranges, and employers hiring macro social workers right now. Here is the link: https://macroandpaid.com/Register for my upcoming live webinar at: https://macroandpaid.com/----"How I Learned That I Had a Scarcity Mindset"In this podcast episode, I'm sharing how I discovered I was operating from a scarcity mindset—even as someone who believed in possibility and had deep faith.I'll walk you through what scarcity mindset actually looked like in my life, how it shaped my decisions around career, money, and relationships, and the moment I finally had language for what I was experiencing.If you've ever stayed in survival mode longer than necessary, felt paralyzed by “what if it doesn't work,” or found yourself surrounded by people who unintentionally reinforce small thinking—this episode is for you.We're talking:• What scarcity mindset looks like beyond money.• Why I stayed in environments that felt familiar but unaligned.• How faith helped me break the cycle.• Signs your decisions may be rooted in fear, not faith.• The role your circles play in your belief system.✨ Need help seeing your social worker career and qualifications differently? Learn more at https://macroandpaid.comHappy macro career planning,Marthea Pitts, MSWscarcity mindset, survival mode, personal growth, faith and mindset, career clarity, self-sabotage, macro social work, how to overcome scarcity mindset, mindset coaching, making bold career decisions, social worker life advice, personal development

Nada Lena is the founder and CEO of Rise Up For You, #1 Best Selling Author, Leadership and Career Confidence Coach, and 2x TEDx Motivational Speaker. With over 10 years of experience as a college professor and former top executive for an education corporation, Nada understands the importance of fusing education, empowerment, and leadership together as she works with her clients and speaks to audiences worldwide.  She has toured the world as a singer, has a Master's degree in Executive Leadership, and has coached and mentored close to 100,000 individuals around the world on self-empowerment, career strategy, and soft skills. Nada has been featured on hundreds of podcasts and radio shows as well as a featured motivational and educational speaker on platforms such as TEDx Talks, The Female Quotient, The California Human Resources Conference, The World In Leadership Diversity Conference, Women of Influence, The Virtual Coach Expo, The Wonder Women Tech, and more.  She's spoken on platforms alongside the greats such as Tony Robbins, Les Brown, Marie Forleo, David Meltzer, and more!  Here are some of the things we talked about in today's show:  • Confidence is the number one skill needed for success. • Macro confidence is essential for taking action. • Perfectionism can hinder potential and progress. • Procrastination often stems from limiting beliefs. • Emotional intelligence is crucial for career advancement. • Building relationships is key to business success. • Influential communication can drive client engagement. • Gathering testimonials enhances credibility as a speaker. • Consistency in showing up builds thought leadership. You can achieve success even with limited resources. Today's podcast is sponsored by my 6 months business mentorship.  [%22]https://briankeanefitness.com/mentorship-and-business-coaching (Website) Enhance Your Professional Development with Business Coaching, Leadership Training, Public Speaking Training, Emotional Intelligence, Confidence Coaching, and Soft Skills Training | Rise Up For You (Facebook) www.facebook.com/RiseUpForYou/ (Youtube) Rise Up For You - YouTube (LinkedIn) Rise Up For You, SHRM-CP, SHRM-SCP | LinkedIn (Instagram) www.instagram.com/nadalenanasserdeen/ www.instagram.com/riseupforyou 

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is back alongside Research Associate Martha Dowding and Research Analyst Will Cunliffe to break down the oil market's summer reset following the “12-day war” shock. With volumes and conviction draining out of the system, the team explores whether the return to calm signals a true inflexion point - or just the eye of the storm. This week's discussion dives into:• OPEC's latest move: why a larger-than-expected paper unwind didn't shake the market - and what the Saudi OSP hike is really signalling• China's quiet buying spree, refinery margins at record highs, and what they reveal about demand• Europe's extreme weather: how heatwaves are throttling refinery output and driving distillate cracks skyward• Macro mayhem: the U.S. dollar's strange new correlation with oil, Trump's tariff chaos, and signs of a bearish shift in U.S. economic leadership• Gasoline's fade: why cracks are slipping even in peak summer, and whether the distillate rally is now overcooked• UK pump prices are rising again - what the forward curve tells us about what you'll pay next• The Gold Rush and the Widowmaker: who made money in the Brent time spreads, and who got burned in the gasoline-gas oil spread unwind Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Repasamos lo más importante de la sesión desde el punto de vista macroeconómico con Filipe Aires, analista independiente.

The Flower Farm, producent van broodbeleg zoals pindakaas, chocopasta en het meest bekend, margarine, begon in 2019 met een duidelijke missie. Palmolievrije producten op de markt brengen. Waarom? Omdat palmolie leidt tot ontbossing in het tropisch regenwoud. Hoe is het bedrijf in slechts vijf jaar tijd uitgegroeid tot een van de grootste producenten in Nederland? En wanneer is de missie van het bedrijf geslaagd? Arjen van Strien, algemeen directeur bij The Flower Farm is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Beleggers De beoogde overname diervoedingstak van DSM-Firmenich is bijna rond. En: waarom UniCredit blijft aandringen op overname van de Commerzbank. Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het beleggerspanel met: Jean Paul van Oudheusden, marktanalist bij eToro en oprichter van Markets Are everywhere en Wim Zwanenburg, beleggersstrateeg bij Stroeve Lemberger. Luister | Beleggerspanel Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The American consumer isn't simply pulling back. They are changing the way they spend – and save. Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver digs into the data. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, the U.S. consumer. What's changing about the ways Americans spend, save and feel about the future?It's Monday, July 7th at 10am in London.As markets digest mixed signals – whether that's easing inflation, changing politics, and persistent noise around tariffs – U.S. consumers are recalibrating. Under the surface of headline numbers, a more complex story is unfolding about the ways Americans are not just reacting but adapting to macro challenges.First, I want to start with a big picture. Data from our latest consumer survey shows that consumer sentiment has stabilized, even as uncertainty around tariffs persists, especially into these rolling July deadlines. Inflation remains the top concern for most. But the good news is that it's trending lower. This month more than half of respondents cited inflation as their primary concern, a slight decrease from last month and a year ago. Now, that's a subtle but a meaningful decline suggesting consumers may be adjusting their expectations rather than bracing for continued price shocks. At the same time though political concerns are on the rise. More than 40 percent of consumers now list the U.S. political environment as a major worry. That's slightly up from last month; and not surprisingly concern around geopolitical conflicts has also jumped from a month ago.Now, when we break this down by income levels, we see some interesting trends. Inflation is the top concern across all income groups, except for those earning more than $150,000. For them, politics takes the top spot. Lower income households, though, are more focused on paying rent and debts, while higher income groups are more concerned about their investments.As for tariffs, concern remains high but stable. About 40 percent of consumers are very worried about tariffs and another 25 percent are moderately so. But if we look under the surface, it's really showing us a political divide. 63 percent of liberals are very concerned, compared to just 23 percent of conservatives who say they're very concerned.Despite these worries, though, fewer people overall are planning to cut back on spending. Only about a third say they'll spend less due to tariffs, which is down quite a bit from earlier this year. Meanwhile, about a quarter plan to spend more, and roughly a third don't expect to change their plans at all.This resilience points to the notable behavioral trend I mentioned at the start. Consumers are not just reacting, they're adapting. Looking at the broader economy, consumer confidence is holding steady according to our survey, although it's slightly down from last month. But when it comes to household finances, the outlook is more positive with a significant number expecting their finances to improve and fewer expecting them to worsen – a net positive.Savings are also showing some resilience. The average consumer has several months of savings, slightly up from last year. Spending intentions are stable with nearly a third of consumers planning to spend more next month while fewer planned to spend less. And when it comes to big ticket items, more than half of U.S. consumers are planning a major purchase in the next three months, including vehicles, appliances, and vacations.Speaking of vacations, summer travel season is here and I'm looking forward to taking a trip soon. Around 60 percent of consumers are planning to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the top reason.So, what's the biggest takeaway for investors?Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, politics and tariffs, U.S. consumers are showing remarkable resilience. It's a nuanced picture, but one that overall suggests stability in the face of uncertainty.Thanks for listening. I hope you enjoyed the show, and if you did, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Cathie Wood is placing some of the boldest bets in investing history, spanning AI, robotaxis, brain chips, crypto, and even space. In this episode of Bankless, the ARK Invest CEO joins Chief Futurist Brett Winton to break down her five highest-conviction technologies - opportunities she believes could unlock over $20 trillion in enterprise value. You'll hear why Elon Musk's empire is at the center of it all, how Tesla's robotaxis could become the biggest AI project on Earth, and why Neuralink, Starship, and stablecoins are converging to spark a new era of productivity and exponential growth. This isn't just tech optimism - it's Cathie Wood's vision for the future of innovation. ---

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold return to discuss the Swedish inflation shock, AI's growing impact on labor markets, OPEC's price war strategy, and the Trump's looming trade deal deadline. They break down whether the market is misunderstanding Trump's tariff strategy, which countries may strike deals, and why tech employment is at an inflection point.

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Listen & subscribe on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and other platforms. Welcome everyone to the weekly San Diego Tech News! I'm Neal Bloom from Rising Tide Partners and the Tacos and Tech Podcast. My co-host in this episode is Fred Grier, journalist and author of The Business of San Diego substack. He covers the ins-and-outs of the startup world including breaking news, IPOs, fundraising rounds, and M&A through his newsletter. Before we dive in, we wanted to thank and ask our listeners to help us grow the show, leave a review and share with one other person who should be more plugged in with the SD Tech Scene. Thank you for the support and for helping us build the San Diego Startup Community!   July 7 Events debrief - Andy Ballester/SD Tech Founders event Macro market is feeling positive Carlsmed files for IPO Capstan Thera acquired Aquacycl - International expansion through MetroConnect Blossomhill Therapuetics moves in new HQ   Fundings: Gallant Therapeutics - $18M Arialys Therapeutics - $14M Kelly Slater moved his brand to SD   Curated Events List – For full list – check The Social Coyote July 8 - Afternoon Founders Hike July 29 - Dev & Data x CTO Talks: Healthtech Night - link coming soon

On this week's episode of Market Matters, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann deliver a midyear macro check-in, breaking down the four key forces shaping the second half of 2025: market complacency, labor market cooling, Fed policy uncertainty, and the sweeping impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” 

Bill Even, commissioner of the Governor's Office of Economic Development, and Joe Santos, Ph.D., explain the state's economy and where it could go in the future.

Wednesday is the day when US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs are set to come into effect. There's still some uncertainty about what will happen, says Chief Investment Strategist of Investec Wealth & Investment International Chris Holdsworth and even a further postponement of the tariffs is a possibility. Investec Focus Radio SA

In this episode of the RMR Training Podcast, Rich Ryan and Ryan Kent break down the fundamentals of long-term HYROX training from macro to meso to micro cycles. They explore how to effectively structure your offseason and in-season blocks, share their own approaches to gym upgrades and incline treadmill training, and explain why extending your microcycle beyond 7 days might unlock your next fitness breakthrough. Whether you're a HYROX athlete planning for Dallas or building toward peak performance for February races, this is your blueprint for intelligent, periodized training.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the June jobs report, takeaways from the June FOMC meeting and subsequent Fedspeak, and a variety of other topics including SLR reform, foreign purchases of US Treasuries, and developments related to trade and fiscal policy. (Note: This podcast was recorded on July 3rd just after the release of the June employment report.)

**Tuesday evenings, we host an online listening party, Macro ‘n Chill, to discuss the current episode. It's a great way to get to know other members of the community and talk about the ideas expressed in the podcast. Join us this Tuesday, July 8th, at 8 pm ET/5 pm PT Click HERE to register Scott Ferguson and Ben Wilson of the Money on the Left collective discuss their ‘Blue Bonds' proposal with Steve. They explain how states can issue bonds to mitigate the federal austerity measures being enacted under the Trump administration. The conversation explores how this approach could democratize fiscal policy at the sub-federal level and empower local governments.Their proposal frames state-issued bonds as a democratic tool to counteract federal inefficiencies, foster local investment and engage communities in financial decision-making.They also address the ideological and practical barriers concerning the public's grasp of economic sovereignty, stressing the importance of understanding endogenous money creation and challenging the collective fear of public debt. Benjamin C. Wilson is an Associate Professor of Economics at the State University of New York at Cortland and a research scholar at the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. Scott Ferguson is an Associate Professor of Film & Media Studies in the Department of Humanities & Cultural Studies at the University of South Florida and a research scholar at the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. He is co-host of Money on the Left podcast featured by Monthly Review.

Tesla (TSLA) vehicle deliveries fell 14% while global competitors like BYD Co. (BYDDY) continued to grow. "Tesla needs a gameplan to catch up," says Steve Westly. Otherwise, he sees the company falling behind. The company's robotaxi acts as a buffer for innovation but Steve adds that Waymo's acceleration poses another headwind for Tesla's growth. Macro headwinds in evolving U.S. policy, like EV credits being sidelined, add to challenges against the Mag 7 giant.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

As he now does at the start of each quarter, Jan van Eck returned for a livestream this monring to share with us his macro & market outlook for Q3 2025.Deficits, tariffs, interest rates, bond yields, artificial intelligence, international equities, gold, Bitcoin....what lies in store ahead?Jan is CEO of VanEck, a highly-respected investment company with $116.3 billion in assets under management that offers a range of vehicles including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, institutional funds, separately managed accounts, model delivery SMAs/model portfolios, and UCITS funds and ETFs.#stocks #goldprice #bitcoinprice __________________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce & distribute educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Strategic focus might be the most underrated superpower in our full of opportunity world.  While most of us understand the importance of avoiding momentary distractions, few master what I call "macro focus" - the discipline of channeling your energy toward one strategic priority until meaningful progress is achieved.  Drawing from Alex Hormozi's insights on entrepreneurial success, this episode reveals a pattern I've observed across high performers: the biggest obstacle to extraordinary results isn't lack of ambition but ambition spread too thin.  How do you fix it? (Spoiler alert: we have an 8-step process)  When we try to pursue multiple offers, customer types, marketing channels, or goals simultaneously, we end up with mediocre outcomes across the board.  The alternative? Doing less AND achieving more.  This counterintuitive approach, concentrating your resources like a firehose rather than sprinkling them everywhere, transforms results in business, habit formation, and personal development.  I walk you through my evidence-based, 8-step process for developing this crucial skill.  The process draws from behavioral science, coaching methodologies, and real-world application.  It's not just conceptual, it's a practical system you can implement immediately to develop your macro focus muscle. By the end of this episode, you'll understand why limiting your focus isn't actually limiting at all but rather the leverage point that unlocks extraordinary achievement.  Ready to transform your approach to goals and stop leaking energy through scattered focus?  This episode provides the blueprint. Tune in!    Text Me Your Thoughts and IdeasSupport the showBrought to you by Angela Shurina Behavior-First Change Leadership & Culture Transformation ConsultantEXECUTIVE & OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE COACH

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Larry McDonald. They'll discuss everything from copper to the dollar to precious metals. https://bit.ly/3Gqe0Bt  

For a special Independence Day episode, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers a popular topic of debate, on holidays or otherwise – national debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today on a special Independence Day episode of the podcast, we're going to talk a bit about the history of U.S. debt and the contrast between corporate and federal debt trajectories.It's Thursday, July 3rd at 9am in Seattle.The 4th of July, which represents the U.S. declaring independence from Great Britain, remains one of my favorite holidays. A time to gather with friends and family and celebrate what America is – and what it can still be.It is also, of course, a good excuse to talk about debt.Declaring independence is one thing, but fighting and beating the largest empire in the world at the time would take more than poetic words. The borrowing that made victory possible for the colonies also almost brought them down in the 1780s under a pile of unsustainable debt. It was a young treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton, who successfully lobbied to bring these debts under a federal umbrella – binding the nation together and securing a lower borrowing cost. As we'd say, it's a real fixed income win-win.Almost 250 years later, the benefits of that foresight are still going strong, with the United States of America enjoying the world's largest economy, and the largest and most liquid equity and bond markets. Yet lately there's been more focus on whether those bond markets are, well, too large.The U.S. currently runs a budget deficit of about 7 percent of GDP, and the current budget proposals in the house and the Senate could drive an additional 4 trillion of borrowing over the next decade above that already hefty baseline. Forecast even further out, well, they look even more challenging.We are not worried about the U.S. government's ability to pay its bills. And to be clear, in the near term, we are forecasting at Morgan Stanley, U.S. government yields to go down as growth slows and the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected in 2026. But all of this borrowing and all the uncertainty around it – it should increase risk premiums for longer term bonds and drive a steeper yield curve.So, it's notable then – as we celebrate America's birthday and discuss its borrowing – that it's really companies that are currently unwrapping the presents. Corporate balance sheets, in contrast, are in very good shape, as corporate borrowing trends have diverged from those of the government.Many factors are behind this. Corporate profitability is strong. Companies use the post-COVID period to refinance debt at attractive rates. And the ongoing uncertainty – well, it's kept management more conservative than they would otherwise be. Out of deference to the 4th of July, I've focused so far on the United States. But we see the same trend in Europe, where more conservative balance sheet trends and less relative issuance to governments is showing up on a year-over-year basis. With companies borrowing relatively less and governments borrowing relatively more, the difference between what companies and the government pay, that so-called spread that we talk so much about – well, we think it can stay lower and more compressed than it otherwise would.We don't think this necessarily applies to the low ratings such as single B or lower borrowers, where these better balance sheet trends simply aren't as clear. But overall, a divergent trend between corporate and government balance sheets is giving corporate bond investors something additional to celebrate over the weekend.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

So far, 2025 has been a year of sharp policy shifts and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. With volatility becoming the new normal, how can investors stay grounded? In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido welcomes back Glenn Purves, Global Head of Macro at the BlackRock Investment Institute, to break down the firm's 2025 Midyear Outlook.They explore why the long-term economic picture has become less predictable, how mega forces like AI and geopolitical fragmentation are reshaping global economic markets, and what “investing in the here and now” really means. From the role of private capital in funding infrastructure and energy to the balance between strategic and tactical asset allocation, Glenn shares how investors can find opportunity amid uncertainty in the economy—and what risks investors should watch for in the second half of the year.Sources: 2025 Midyear Outlook, BlackRock Investment InstituteKey moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction to 2025 Market Volatility01:55 Introducing the Investment Midyear Outlook02:46 Geopolitical Fragmentation and Mega Forces03:48 3 Investment Themes In 202505:10 Navigating Uncertainty and Risk08:47 The Role of AI and Energy in Investments13:19 Geopolitical Landscape and Trade Policies16:49 Conclusion and Key Takeaways19:30 Summer Series on The Bid

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Ariana, what's the setup?Ariana Salvatore: So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9th, and unless it's extended, we could see a reposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries, though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week.But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case. Let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?Michael Zezas: So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariffs.Ariana Salvatore: Right, and around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals, but have we seen any real progress in that area?Michael Zezas: Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK framework agreement. And here's an important detail, three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.Ariana Salvatore: Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?Michael Zezas: So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here.So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks, and maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact: 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration.There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic. A strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route.But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre-2024 levels.Ariana Salvatore: So wide bands of uncertainty, and it sounds like the more constructive outcome is quite similar to our base case, which is what we have in place right now. But translating that more aggressive path into what that means for the economy, we think it would reinforce our house view that the risks here are skewed to the downside.Our economists estimate that tariffs begin to impact inflation about four months after implementation with the growth effects lagging by about eight months. That sets us up for weak but not quite recessionary growth. We're talking 1% GDP on an annual basis in 2025 and 2026, and the tariff passed through to prices and inflation data probably starting in August.Michael Zezas: So bottom line, watch carefully on Wednesday and be vigilant for changes to the status quo on tariff levels. There's a lot of optionality in how this plays out, as trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high. Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Ron Kamdem, our U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts & Commercial Real Estate Analyst, discusses how GenAI could save the real estate industry $34 billion and where the savings are most likely to be found.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ron Kamdem, Head of Morgan Stanley's U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts and Commercial Real Estate research. Today I'll talk about the ways GenAI is disrupting the real estate industry.It's Tuesday, July 1st, at 10am in New York.What if the future of real estate isn't about location, location, location – but automation, automation, automation?While it may be too soon to say exactly how AI will affect demand for real estate, what we can say is that it is transforming the business of real estate, namely by making operations more efficient. If you're a customer dealing with a real estate company, you can now expect to interact with virtual leasing assistants. And when it comes to drafting your lease documents, AI can help you do this in minutes rather than hours – or even days.In fact, our recent work suggests that GenAI could automate nearly 40 percent of tasks across half a million occupations in the real estate investment trusts industry – or REITs. Indeed, across 162 public REITs and commercial real estate services companies or CRE with $92 billion of total labor costs, the financial impact may be $34 billion, or over 15 percent of operating cash flow. Our proprietary job posting database suggests the top four occupations with automation potential are management – so think about middle management – sales, office and administrative support, and installation maintenance and repairs.Certain sub-sectors within REITs and CRE services stand to gain more than others. For instance, lodging and resorts, along with brokers and services, and healthcare REITs could see more than 15 percent improvement in operating cash flow due to labor automation. On the other hand, sectors like gaming, triple net, self-storage, malls, even shopping centers might see less than a 5 percent benefit, which suggests a varied impact across the industry.Brokers and services, in particular, show the highest potential for automation gains, with nearly 34 percent increase in operating cash flow. These companies may be the furthest along in adopting GenAI tools at scale. In our view, they should benefit not only from the labor cost savings but also from enhanced revenue opportunities through productivity improvement and data center transactions facilitated by GenAI tools.Lodging and resorts have the second highest potential upside from automating occupations, with an estimated 23 percent boost in operating cash flow. The integration of AI in these businesses not only streamline operations but also opens new avenues for return on investments, and mergers and acquisitions.Some companies are already using AI in their operations. For example, some self-storage companies have integrated AI into their digital platforms, where 85 percent of customer interactions now occur through self-selected digital options. As a result, they have reduced on-property labor hours by about 30 percent through AI-powered staffing optimization. Similarly, some apartment companies have reduced their full-time staff by about 15 percent since 2021 through AI-driven customer interactions and operational efficiencies.Meanwhile, this increased application of AI is driving new revenue to AI-enablers. Businesses like data centers, specialty, CRE services could see significant upside from the infrastructure buildout from GenAI. Advanced revenue management systems, customer acquisition tools, predictive analytics are just a few areas where GenAI can add value, potentially enhancing the $290 billion of revenue stream in the REIT and CRE services space.However, the broader economic impact of GenAI on labor markets remains hotly debated. Job growth is the key driver of real estate demand and the impact of AI on the 164 million jobs in the U.S. economy remains to be determined. If significant job losses materialize and the labor force shrinks, then the real estate industry may face top-line pressure with potentially disproportionate impact on office and lodging. While AI-related job losses are legitimate concerns, our economists argue that the productivity effects of GenAI could ultimately lead to net positive job growth, albeit with a significant need for re-skilling.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. housing market appears to be stuck. Our co-heads of Securitized Product research, Jay Bacow and James Egan, explain how supply and demand, as well as mortgage rates, play a role in the cooling market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And after getting through last week's blistering hot temperatures, today we're going to talk about what may be a cooling housing market. It's Monday, June 30th at 2:30pm in New York. Now, Jim, home prices. We just got another index. They set another record high, but the pace of growth – the acceleration as a physicist in me wants to say – appears to be slowing. What's going on here?James Egan: The pace of home price growth reported this month was 2.7 percent. That is the lowest that it's been since August of 2023. And in our view, the reason's pretty simple. Supply is increasing, while demand has stalled.Jay Bacow: But Jim, this was a report for the spring selling season. I know we got it in June, but this is supposed to be the busiest time of the year. People are happy to go around. They're looking at moving over the summer when the kids aren't in school. We should be expecting the supply to increase. Are you saying that it's happening more than it's anticipated?James Egan: That is what we're saying. Now, we should be expecting inventories today to be higher than they were in, call it January or February. That's exactly the seasonality that you're referring to. But it's the year-over-year growth we're paying attention to here. Homes listed for sale are up year-over-year, 18 months in a row. And that pace, it's been accelerating. Over the past 40 years, the pace of growth from this past month was only eclipsed one time, the Great Financial Crisis.Jay Bacow: [sighs] I always get a little worried when the housing analyst brings up the Great Financial Crisis. Are you saying that this time the demand isn't responding?James Egan: That is what we're saying. So, through the first five months of this year, existing home sales are only down about 2 percent versus the first five months of 2024. So they've basically kind of plateaued at these levels. But that also means that we're seeing the fewest number of transactions through May in a calendar year since 2009. And that combination of easing inventory and lackluster demand, it's pushed months of supply back to levels that we haven't seen since the beginning of this pandemic. Call it the fourth quarter of 2019, first quarter of 2020, right before inventory has really plummeted to historic lows.Jay Bacow: All right, so 2009, another financial crisis reference. But you're also – you're speaking around a national level, and as a housing analyst, I feel like you haven't really spoken about the three most important factors when we think about things which are: Location. Location. And location.James Egan: Absolutely. And the deceleration that we're seeing in home price growth – and I would point out it is still growth – has been pervasive across the country. Year-over-year, HPA is now decelerating in 100 percent of the top 100 MSAs, for which we have data. In fact, a full quarter of them, 25 percent of these cities are now actually seeing prices decline on a year-over-year basis. And that's up from just 5 percent with declining home prices one year ago.Jay Bacow: As a homeowner, I do like the home price growth. And is it the same story when you look more narrowly around supply and demand?James Egan: So, there might be some geographical nuances, but we do think that it largely boils down to that. Local inventory growth has been a very good indicator of weaker home price performance, particularly the level of for-sale inventory today versus that fourth quarter of 2019. If we look at it on a geographic basis, of 14 MSAs that have the highest level of inventory today compared to 2019, 11 of them are in either Florida or Texas. On the other end of the spectrum, the cities where inventory remains furthest away from where it was four and a half years ago, they're in the Northeast, they're in the Midwest.Jay Bacow: As somebody who lives in the Northeast, I'd like to hear that again. But you're also; you're quoting existing prices, which that's been the outperformer in the housing market. Right?James Egan: Exactly. New home prices have actually been decreasing year-over-year for the past year and a half at this point. It's actually brought the basis between new home prices, which tend to trade at a little bit of a premium to existing sales; it's brought that basis to its tightest level that we've seen in at least 30 years. And that's before we take into account the fact that home builders have been buying down some of these mortgage rates. But Jay, you've recently done some work trying to size this.Jay Bacow: Yeah. First it might help to explain what a buydown is.A home builder might have a new home listed at say, $450,000. And with mortgage rates in the context of about 6.5 percent right now, the home buyer might not be able to afford that, so they offer to pay less. The home builder – often many of them also have an origination arm as well. They'll say, you know what? We'll sell it to you at that $450,000, but we'll give you a lower mortgage rate; instead of 6.5 percent, we'll sell it to you for $450,000 with a 5 percent mortgage rate. Then maybe the home buyer can afford that.James Egan: And so, new home prices are actually coming down. And by that we're specifically referring to the median price of new home transactions. They're falling despite the fact that these buy downs might be influencing prices a little bit higher.Jay Bacow: Right. And when we look at how often this is happening, it's a little actually hard to get it from the data because they don't have to report it. But when we look at the distribution of mortgage rates in a given month – prior to 2022, there were effectively no purchase loans that were originated less than one point below the prevailing mortgage rate for a given month.However, more recently we're up to about 12 percent of Ginnie Mae purchases, and those are the more credit constrained borrowers that might have a harder time buying a home. And about 5 percent of conventional purchase loans are getting originated with a rate 1 percent below the outstanding marketJames Egan: And so, this might be another sign that we're seeing a little bit of softening in home prices. But what are the implications on the agency mortgage side?Jay Bacow: I would say there's probably two things that we're keeping an eye out on. Because these are homeowners that are getting below market rate, the investors are getting a below market coupon. And because they're getting sold at a discount, they don't want that, but they're going to stay around for a while. So, investors are getting these rates that they don't want for longer.And then the other thing you think about from the home buyer perspective is, you know, maybe they – it's good for them right now. But if they want to sell that home, because they're getting a below market mortgage rate, they bought the home for maybe more than other people would've. So, unless they can sell it with that mortgage attached, which is very difficult to do, they probably have to sell it for a lower price than when they bought it.Now Jim, what does all this mean for home prices going forward?James Egan: Now, when we think about home prices, we're talking about the home price indices, right? And so those are going to be repeat sales. It's going to, by definition, look at existing prices and not necessarily the dynamics we're talking in the new home price market.Jay Bacow: Okay, so all this builder buy down stuff is interesting for what it means for new home prices – but doesn't impact all the HPA indices that you reference.James Egan: Exactly, and at the national level, despite what we've been talking about on this podcast, we do think that home prices remain more supported than what we are seeing locally. Inventory is increasing, but it also remains near historically low levels. Months of supply that I mentioned at the top of this podcast, it's picked up to the highest level it's been since the beginning of this pandemic. We're also talking about four to four and a half months of supply. Anything below six is a tight environment that has been historically associated with home prices continuing to climb.That's why our base case is for positive HPA this year. We're at +2 percent. That's slower than where we are now. We think you're going to continue to see deceleration. And because of what we're seeing from a supply and demand perspective, we are a little bit more skewed to the downside in our bear case. Instead of that +2, we're at -3 percent than we are towards the upside in our bull case. Instead of that plus two, we're at plus 5 percent in the bull case. So slower HPA from here, but still positive.Jay Bacow: Well, Jim, it's always a pleasure talking to you, particularly when you're highlighting that the home price growth is going to be stronger in the place where I own a home.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you listening, thank you for listening to another episode of Thoughts on the Market. Please leave a review or a like wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.