Podcasts about Macro

Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur takes a look at how credit markets are adapting to fund the new phase of AI capex.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today – The critical question behind the AI-driven capex cycle that is front and center for markets year to date. How is credit market financing this ecosystem evolving? It's Wednesday June 3rd at 2 pm in New York. When we first discussed the role of credit markets in financing the AI and data center build-out around the middle of last year, the direction of travel was clear. Realizing the transformative potential of AI requires unprecedented levels of capex. What has really surprised us since is the scale and speed of that spending, both of which have exceeded our expectations by a wide margin. The upward revision to capex expectations has been dramatic. A year ago, we projected the combined capex of the five large hyperscalers at roughly $450 billion in both 2026 and 2027. After the first quarter earnings reports, Morgan Stanley's internet equity analysts, led by Brian Nowak, now expect hyperscaler capex of roughly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.2 trillion in 2027. One data point really captures the surge in the underlying demand for compute. According to OpenRouter, the global weekly token usage, which is a key proxy for compute, has risen by roughly 350 percent since early January, increasing from about 6 trillion tokens to 28 trillion tokens. Credit channels for financing this capex have not only been broader and deeper than we anticipated, spanning public and private markets, but have seen remarkable in the structural innovation that is blurring the lines between public and private markets. Over $200bn of public AI-related issuance across the different credit channels has happened just in the first five months of this year. We had previously assumed unsecured issuance would be limited by the scale of the largest non-financial issuers, confined to investment grade credit only, and largely USD denominated. Instead, some hyperscaler issuance has now far exceeded even the largest telecom names; funding has expanded well beyond USD into EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY and CAD markets. The issuer base has also broadened to include data center REITs and neoclouds, particularly in the high-yield market. The scope of financing has also widened beyond the data center shells themselves. GPU financing, which we assumed would be funded entirely through equity capital, has begun to migrate into credit markets. Funding is now coming through broadly syndicated loans and asset based financing, with ABS structures not far behind. Structural innovation illustrates how rapidly the credit ecosystem is adapting to the complexities of demands of AI-driven capex. Financings that combine elements of project finance, tranching, and residual value guarantees, along with high-yield issuance backed by hyperscaler guaranteed leases – these are innovations that we have never seen before. These structures have expanded the investor base, reduced the funding frictions, and further blurred traditional boundaries – between both corporate and project finance, and public and private credit markets. At the same time, physical, operational, and political constraints are beginning to shape the pace and the composition of the AI infrastructure build-out – and, by extension, the demand for financing. Grid access, power generation equipment, skilled labor, and permitting delays are emerging as significant constraints. These are compounded by political and regulatory frictions at the local, national, and international level. As power availability becomes a gating factor, the AI build-out is likely to pull energy infrastructure financing more tightly into the orbit of AI infrastructure financing. The clear takeaway is this. The capex requirements underpinning AI infrastructure are expanding exponentially, and with them the role of credit markets in financing this build-out. Along the way, there will be winners and losers, periods of adjustment, and a range of physical, financial, and political constraints that shape outcomes on the margin. But the broader trajectory is certain. The scale, duration, and strategic importance of AI infrastructure investment mean that financing of this will remain a defining theme for credit markets and credit investors for years to come. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets takes a closer look at potential investment paths when markets appear increasingly synchronized around a few macro themes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, how to square a market that is both highly correlated, and highly divergent, at the same time. It's Tuesday, June 2nd, at 3pm London. A market of one. That may be a way that you hear investing described these days, and strictly speaking, it's accurate. Stocks and bonds, the two big asset classes that form the bulk of most investors' portfolios, are moving in unusual lockstep. Stocks are rising when yields fall, and vice versa, with the most consistency in over 20 years. And both, perhaps unsurprisingly, are moving in close relationship with the price of oil. At this point, it all seems pretty clear. The Iran conflict is a big deal for markets, representing the largest disruption to global energy supply in history. Of course, stocks and bonds, and oil are all moving together based on the perception of how this enormous issue resolves. In doing so, they suggest that the conflict still remains quite important, even as markets appear quite strong. Just as we can measure the extent to which stocks, bonds, and commodity prices move together, we can also track how individual stocks move relative to each other. And so, are stocks also rising and falling together like we see with these big asset classes? No. In fact, without exaggeration, it is the complete opposite. There are a few ways to measure how the individual stocks within, say, the S&P 500, are moving relative to one another. But all of them say the same thing. Day to day, stocks are moving with unusual dispersion and independence. At the same time that the relationship between stocks and bonds is the tightest in over 20 years, the relationship between stocks within the S&P 500 – to each other – is the lowest. If Iran is the factor driving the tight linkage that we discussed between stocks and bonds, Artificial Intelligence may be the culprit behind the opposite effect when we get down into individual companies. The perception that some companies will be incredible beneficiaries of AI, while others will be left behind, would explain at least part of the divergent performance. And so would an attention gap; with so much focus and positioning in AI sensitive names, other parts of the market can quickly feel forgotten, and thus move more independently. Indeed, while the S&P 500 is back near all-time highs, the market's advance-decline line, a measure of how many stocks are going up versus going down, is lower than where it was in late February or mid-April. We see a few implications to all of this. First, while stocks and bonds are closely linked for the moment, we think that this correlation would flip under more significant energy market stress. Were the price of oil to spike to our Commodity team's bear case, of $130-$150/bbl, we think yields would start to fall as the market would turn more concerned about the effect of all of this on growth. So, while the diversification of bonds has been disappointing so far, we do think that it will improve and materialize when it really matters. In equities, this dispersion means that stock selection can allow one to stand out from the overall market. Indeed if one considers themselves a stock picker, low correlation between stocks is exactly the market that you would hope to have. And it also means that many individual names may not be as heady as the broad market levels would imply. As discussed on this program recently, my colleague Mike Wilson and our U.S. Equity Strategy team expects U.S. stock performance to broaden out from here. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. Also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Send us a text if you want to be on the Podcast & explain why!Your clients say they are eating “1,200 calories,” but the photos tell a very different story. We walk through a clean, practical way to do macro calculations that you can explain to real humans, then zoom out to the bigger issue: macro targets only work when they are built on honest intake data and consistent habits.We start with a simple baseline calorie estimate (bodyweight times 10) and show exactly how to convert calories into grams of carbohydrates, protein, and fat using the rules that never change: carbs are 4 calories per gram, protein is 4 calories per gram, and fat is 9 calories per gram. Using average examples, we reveal how quickly protein can end up shockingly low, why high-carb days can quietly dominate someone's intake, and how a 3,500-calorie “normal day” turns into massive numbers on paper. Along the way, we call out the common coaching trap of giving generic advice like “eat a gram of protein per pound” without adjusting the rest of the diet.From there, we lay out a three-phase nutrition coaching framework: build awareness with food logs and meal photos, drive behavior change with sleep and stress inputs, and move toward longevity with more individualized support, often alongside a registered dietitian and lab work insights. If you are a personal trainer who wants better client results and a more professional nutrition coaching service, this is the roadmap. Subscribe, share this with a coach who needs it, and leave a review with your biggest calorie-tracking blind spot.Want to become a SUCCESSFUL personal trainer? SUF-CPT is the FASTEST growing personal training certification in the world!Want to ask us a question?  Email info@showupfitness.com with the subject line PODCAST QUESTION to get your question answered live on the show!Website: https://www.showupfitness.com/Become a Successful Personal Trainer Book Vol. 2 (Amazon): https://a.co/d/1aoRnqANASM / ACE / ISSA study guide: https://www.showupfitness.com

Our U.S. Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail Analyst Simeon Gutman explains how affordability and new shopping habits are changing how Americans choose and care for their pets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Simeon Gutman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail Analyst. Today: the state of the pet economy, or as we lovingly call it, the “petriarchy.” It's Monday, June 1st, at 10am in New York.Hey Sammy, who wants to go on a walk? If you have a pet, you probably know the routine. You go in for one bag of food. Then you remember the treats, the medicine, the grooming appointment. Maybe the toy they definitely do not need. And then the vet bill you hope is not around the corner. Pets are family. But family has gotten more expensive. That's the big shift in the U.S. pet economy. The emotional bond is still powerful. About two-thirds of dog and cat owners strongly agree their pet is an important member of the family. More than one-third say they would take on debt to pay for a pet's medical expenses. Today, the growth story in the pet industry has changed. After an extraordinary post-pandemic run, it has entered a slower, more mature phase. We see growth settling around 4 percent, down from nearly 9 percent annually from 2019 to 2025. That doesn't mean the market is shrinking. We still see total U.S. pet spending rising from about [$]200 billion in 2025 to more than [$]240 billion by 2030. But the easy growth days look behind us. The industry now has to work harder for each dollar. Affordability sits at the center of this story. A pet may start as an emotional decision, but it quickly becomes a line item in the household budget. Overall pet ownership remains above pre-COVID levels, at about 67 percent, but it has slipped from the 2024 high. That pressure shows up most clearly among younger consumers for whom cost has become the top barrier. And consumers are adapting. When pet food prices rise, shoppers stock up on sale items, compare prices online and in-store, and in some cases trade down. Still, pet food remains resilient. Almost all owners plan to keep spending the same or spend more on pet food over the next six months. The bigger change is that services continue to take share from products, with veterinary care at the center. Services accounted for just over 40 percent of pet industry spending in 2025, and we see that moving higher by 2030. Food and toys still matter, but healthcare, prescriptions, diagnostics and routine care are becoming a bigger part of the wallet. That brings us to vets – who remain the most trusted source of pet care information, cited by nearly 60 percent of owners. Younger pet owners still rely on vets, but they also turn more to online sources, friends, relatives and even store personnel. About three-quarters of owners visited a vet in the past six months, but average visits fell to under two, which is down from just over two in 2024. This points to a more cautious consumer, especially around routine care. We also see a subtle shift in the kinds of pets people choose. Cat ownership has moved higher versus pre-COVID levels, while dog ownership among younger adults has pulled back from its 2024 peak. That shift is not surprising, given that cats typically come with lower overall spending than dogs. Shopping habits are changing as well. Online pet product shopping has grown a lot since 2019, but its share of wallet has leveled off at roughly one-third. The next leg of digital growth may come less from simply moving store purchases online and more from subscriptions, pharmacy, healthcare and broader pet care ecosystems. So where does that leave the pet economy? Pet owners are certainly not walking away from their animals. But they are making more practical choices, watching prices more closely, and deciding where convenience, health and value fit into the same budget. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Show DescriptionDave's changing up his camera angles, Chris has been upgrading his Sprinter van, how many hobbies is too many, what kinds of web tech was popular years ago that now seems normal, why isn't the DX around web components better, how can I structure my code to compose other custom elements, and what still can't be done on the web these days? Listen on WebsiteLinks Custom Elements Manifest Diffs, Trees, and VS Code 2.0 - Syntax #1008 CodePen Radio SponsorsMacroMacro is a tool to cut through the noise - It's a workspace built for engineers; One place for all your emails, tasks, team chat, and documents. Sign up at Macro.com and get $100 of your subscriptions using code SHOPTALK100

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Summary Lt Gen Clint Hinote, USAF (Ret.), and CH(COL) Light Shin, USA, join host Josh Jackson to examine influencer culture through a biblical lens. Hinote brings decades of military leadership experience and is now building a speaking ministry focused on integrating Christian faith and leadership into a single, unified message. Shin serves as an active-duty Army chaplain and father of three daughters, navigating influencer culture's effects on faith and family in real time. Both will be speaking on the theme of influence at OCF's White Sulphur Springs Conference Center this summer. The conversation begins by establishing a biblical framework for thinking about influence—one that applies to all Christians before it applies to military officers specifically. A few key distinctions anchor everything that follows. First, the platform versus the algorithm. Both guests agree that social media platforms are morally neutral—the tool itself is neither good nor evil. Hinote compares them to the Roman road system: the same infrastructure used to carry armies also carried the early gospel across the known world. What man built for one purpose, God can use for another. The YouVersion Bible App is offered as a contemporary example of Christians using technology with vision for gospel purposes. The algorithms driving those platforms, however, are a different matter. They are deliberately engineered not to inform or build up users, but to keep them scrolling—by targeting base impulses, feeding comparison, and manufacturing shame. Hinote frames these as the "flaming arrows" of Ephesians 6, and the first thing you see on social media that triggers envy, comparison, or temptation is an arrow. Recognize it. Raise your shield of faith. Second, influencer versus witness. Shin draws a sharp distinction from Acts 1:8, saying that an influencer seeks to build a following but a witness tells the truth about what they have seen and heard, regardless of the audience's reaction. Both guests agree that Christian influence should be a byproduct of a Christ-centered life—not a goal pursued in its own right. When influence becomes the goal, self replaces God at the center. The framework they offer is simple: know Christ above all things, do what Christ commanded, and become more like Jesus through that ongoing, lifelong process. Influence, rightly understood, flows from that. As Shin puts it, the question worth asking regularly is: "Whose kingdom did I build today—God's or mine?" Third, authenticity over curation. The lie of influencer culture, Hinote argues, is that you have to look like you have it all figured out. In reality, authenticity builds trust, and trust is what creates genuine influence. This is as true in the gospel as it is in personal branding, and the early church wrestled with the same pull toward following personalities over Christ, as Paul addresses directly in 1 Corinthians 1:12. The standard the guests return to throughout is 1 Peter 3:15 (ESV): "Always being prepared to make a defense to anyone who asks you for a reason for the hope that is in you—yet do it with gentleness and respect." With that foundation in place, the conversation turns to what this means specifically for Christian officers serving in uniform. Referenced in this conversation: Summer R&R 2 at WSS (Hinote) Summer R&R 6 at WSS (Shin) YouVersion Bible App The Freedom of Self-Forgetfulness by Timothy Keller   Questions answered and themes covered in this interview include:   How is social media affecting the younger generation entering military service? Young people entering the military are increasingly shaped by a worldview centered on self-promotion, curated personas, and metrics of online acceptance. This stands in direct tension with what military formation is designed to accomplish. The foundational goal of basic training is the breakdown of individual ego and the subordination of self to the unit. Shin references Timothy Keller's The Freedom of Self-Forgetfulness as the counterpoint to what he observes: recruits arriving not in freedom, but in what he calls "bondage of self-obsession"—more concerned with how they're perceived on a platform than how they're showing up for the person next to them. Hinote adds that this tension isn't new, and that American individualism has always been something the military has had to address. However, the platforms intensify that individualism by continuously reinforcing exactly the self-focused impulses that military culture is trying to dismantle. Character development must be continuous and intentional, not treated as something institutions address only when there's time. Resource: The Freedom of Self-Forgetfulness by Timothy Keller   How do I share my faith as a military officer without it being weird or forced? Start by living the message before communicating it, and know which role you're speaking from at any given moment. Hinote, drawing from his own experience rising through senior military ranks, offers a framework that proved practically useful. When you are on a platform, in uniform, with rank on your shoulders and a flag behind you, you are speaking from a position of institutional authority, and conflating that authority with the authority of Christ risks manipulation and coercion, which is not Christlike leadership. In settings where you have more personal freedom—as a church member, a neighbor, a citizen—you have more latitude to speak openly about your faith. The key is empathy: always consider what role your audience sees you occupying. In either context, when you fail—and you will—own it and apologize. Authenticity builds trust. Trust creates real influence. A practical starting point Hinote recommends for any developing leader is this: keep a journal, write down every role you hold, and identify the through line connecting them all. Then live that through line. The standard throughout is 1 Peter 3:15 (ESV): "Always being prepared to make a defense to anyone who asks you for a reason for the hope that is in you—yet do it with gentleness and respect." Statistics and data shared this episode (plus a few extra not included): A working definition of influencer culture: Influencer culture is a social and economic phenomenon created when social media platforms reward people for curating a public identity, performing for engagement, and building an audience around themselves. Influencers use their platform to shape the opinions, lifestyles, and purchasing decisions of their audience. Every generation is influenced in some way by influencer marketing: 55% of Gen Z trust influencer recommendations, compared with 44% of Millennials, 35% of Gen X, and 28% of Baby Boomers (2025 Clutch survey). StoryBox says there are approximately 127 million active social media influencers worldwide—roughly 2.4% of the global social media user base of 5+ billion people. EMarketer breaks that down into 4 tiers of influencers: Nano: 1,000–10,000 followers; Micro: 10,000–100,000 followers; Macro: 100,000–1 million followers; and Mega/celebrity: 1 million+ followers. The vast majority of influencers on TikTok (nearly 88%) are nano-influencers and Instagram follows a similar pattern with nano-influencers representing about 76% of its influencers (eMarketer). According to some reports, military-related content on TikTok alone amassed over 15 billion views in 2023; look up #MilTok. Military.com calls it the rise of soldier influencers. Influencer culture is not just shaping what people buy (or which branch to join)—it's doing three things: It's shaping how an entire generation sees themselves, forms relationships, and decides who to trust. Consider the following: In terms of how they see themselves: Writer and Substack author Freya India, whose book GIRLS was published earlier this year, frames influencer culture this way—girls as young as 12 packaging themselves for Instagram, getting feedback on their appearance, measuring their worth in likes and followers. An adjacent stat is this: 47% of Gen Z often or always feel anxious (Gallup, 2023). That's the self-perception toll. In terms of forming relationships: A Harvard study says 61% of young adults ages 18–25 report profound loneliness—the highest rate of any age group. This is the one that tends to surprise people, because the assumption is that hyper-connected generations would be less lonely or that older generations would be the loneliest. In terms of deciding who to trust: Only 8% of Gen Z say there's a religious leader they can turn to (Springtide Research). And from Edelman—religious and faith leaders rank at 44% trust rate among Gen Z, well below doctors, scientists, and teachers. But here's the flip side: family members rank at 88% trust. The hunger for relational authority is still there and it's real. Instead, it's institutional authority that's taken a hit.

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets.Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.

 Welcome to the Skeptic's Guide to Investment Management. In each episode, we examine one industry publication through a skeptical, logical, evidence-based lens, with the help expert guests.This one is a macro special featuring Dylan Smith from ArcMacro.If you feel there's “a lot of macro” happening these days. And that the next declaration might “change the macro landscape”. Then the chat is the perfect antidote to help you think straight and remind you that we tend to overstate the impact of political decision.  Key takeaway: The macro-driven cyclical and structural processes drive political decision and news. It's not the other way around.If you'd like to support this show please take a minute to leave a 5-star review on your favourite podcast app.Relevant linksFull conversation and notes: https://investorama.substack.com/p/a-macro-framework-for-hybrid-portfoliosSign up to Investology's free newsletter: https://investorama.substack.com/Sign up to ArcMacro's free newsletter:https://arcmacro.substack.com/George Aliferis: https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-aliferis/Dylan Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-smith-78284b50/SGIM is an Investology podcast series, produced by Orama: https://orama.tv/MUSIC CREDITSBrandenburg Concerto No4-1 BWV1049 - Classical Whimsical by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100303Artist: http://incompetech.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit investorama.substack.com

The creator of the Water H3RO, Joseph Johnson, stops by with friend of the show Tim James from Chemical Free Body, to explain how their product structures the water. The device changes the molecular bonds of H2O and structures it into a more effective version, known as H3O2.Health benefits include the removal of the negative effects of glyphosate, which is responsible for numerous health problems around the world, and is currently in the middle of a massive class-action settlement. Agricultural opportunities include the regeneration of the soil, improvement of crop yields, higher-quality food, and more fertile seeds.—Guest LinksJoseph Johnson & Tim JamesChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACRO—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioLink Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.com—Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROLegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO

For the rest of 2026, what should we be paying the most attention to on the macro side of the equation?  And how do these things affect the things we love to invest in?  We chat about the state of the world, and the economy in Episode 257.   The ByBit Blog - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/   The ApeX Omni Blog (US/Privacy Friendly) - https://nononsenseforex.com/top-defi-trading-platform-apex-omni/   Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/   Get a Discount On Any Trading View Package - https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=159841   The Old Blog Has Moved to My New Free Substack - https://thecontrarianinvestorblog.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-and-what-not-to?r=16orow   Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X   Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/   The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone.  The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates.  Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk.  Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time.  Thank you for understanding.

**Every Tuesday we hold an online gathering where we listen to and talk about the episode while building community. Share your insights and questions as we educate ourselves and each other. Macro ‘n Chill, June 2, 8pm ET/5pm PT. Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/OEYtu7v-SciBITwiIWwdzwA frequent theme of our podcast revolves around the contradiction between formal political rights and the material realities of the working class. This week, our guest Ida Susser talks to Steve about the French Yellow Vest movement as a reaction to the contradictions of late-stage financial capitalism which has systematically gutted the welfare state, dismantled public services in the provinces, and further abandoned the universalist promises of the French Republic.Ida, an anthropologist, is author of the book The Yellow Vests and the Battle for Democracy: Taking to the Streets of Paris in the 21st Century.Moving beyond the liberal fetish of the ballot box, the conversation explores how the Gilets Jaunes, or Yellow Vests, built horizontalist, leaderless power from the grassroots. They blockaded traffic circles, constructed makeshift commons, and forged bonds of class solidarity across regional and ethnic lines. Ida contrasts this bottom-up mobilization with the top-down, cultish nature of MAGA; she points out that the French movement's refusal of vanguardism did not prevent it from “thresholding” into a broader, anti-neoliberal bloc.Steve introduces the MMT lens to expose the ideological confusion around taxation and public spending.Is it possible the Yellow Vests' defense of the social wage and their rage against the Macronist oligarchy represent a necessary, if incomplete, rehearsal for working-class power?Ida Susser is Distinguished Professor of Anthropology at Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY. She has conducted ethnographic research in the U.S., Southern Africa and Puerto Rico, France and Spain with respect to urban social movements and the urban commons, gender, the global AIDS epidemic and environmental movements. She is the author of numerous books, chapters, and articles, including The Tumultuous Politics of Scale (Routledge Press, 2020) co-edited, and Norman Street: Poverty and Politics in an Urban Neighborhood (Oxford University Press, 2012. Her most recent is The Yellow Vests and the Battle for Democracy: Taking to the Streets of Paris in the 21st Century. (Routledge, 2026).

Commercial real estate debt is now one of the market's most avoided asset classes. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets explains why there may be an opportunity to invest in those securities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why commercial real estate debt could be overlooked and undervalued. It's Friday, May 29th at 2pm in London. Bond yields have risen this year, and it's attracting strong flows into fixed income markets. The problem is that all of that demand is narrowing the risk premium that one receives. Spreads on U.S. mortgage bonds are richer than 89 percent of observations over the last 20 years. Spreads on the U.S. high yield market, well, they're richer than 96 percent of the time. And spreads on U.S. investment grade, it's 99 percent. We live in a world where the risk premium on most bonds is very low versus history, but there are exceptions. One is debt backed by commercial mortgages or so-called CMBS. Spreads here, notably and unusually, are significantly higher than the long run average. It is a market that we like. Commercial property is largely comprised of lending against office buildings, apartments, retail complexes, and industrial sites like warehouses. The first three have faced major challenges over the last five years. Office values have slumped as investors feared more people working from home. Apartments have suffered from significant supply in building, conceived in a low-rate world as this has come online. And retail has faced long-run concern about the trend of more online shopping. And the rise of interest rates, well, that's loomed over everything. A building, in a lot of ways, is a lot like a bond, promising a dependable stream of rents over time. When an investor can get that stream of cash flows from the bond market, commercial property prices must adjust lower to remain competitive. These challenges are material, but they are also not new. Indeed, investors may recall that fears around commercial property peaked way back in early 2023 following significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Back then, there were widespread fears that commercial property weakness would ricochet back and threaten the banking system. Three years later, those worst fears have not been realized. And while defaults and restructurings have happened, overall commercial property fundamentals are beginning to pick back up. Commercial property transaction volumes increased 27 percent in the U.S. in the first quarter relative to a year prior; and prices are rising, up about 5 percent over the same period. The amount of commercial real estate debt being originated is up about 40 percent over the last year – a sign that lenders are coming back. And the number of commercial deals that are becoming distressed and unable to pay their bills, they just saw their first quarterly decline since all of those problems in early 2023. Part of this recovery in the commercial real estate market may be explained by U.S. growth, which continues to be resilient, and some of it mirrors other cycles. When rates rose and commercial lending markets weakened, the construction of new properties really slowed down. It takes several years to build a building, and so it's only now that the impact of everything that was not built is starting to be felt. With less supply coming online, the value of existing property is better supported, especially relative to the more elevated risk premiums on offer for its debt. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss: Unlearning the QE Reflex Trading "Close to the Fire" The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags The "GMO" Bubble Methodology Credit as the Equity Canary The Four-Indicator Dollar Model Fading Geopolitical Shocks The Role of Human Judgment in AI 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren & Jim Bianco.  They'll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://bit.ly/4tXAlJr    

Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas explains why the recent U.S.-China summit may have eased near-term risks, without changing the bigger picture for investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research. Today, we're talking about what investors should take away from the recent U.S.-China summit. It's Thursday, May 28th at 10:30am in New York. It's been two weeks since the much-anticipated U.S.-China summit, where Presidents Trump and Xi met to discuss a wide array of issues in their relationship. Understandably, investors were watching carefully. The relationship between the two countries and its potential impact on global economic conditions has been a driver of markets at key intervals. Brinksmanship around the trade relationship has been particularly noteworthy. In 2025, the level of tariffs substantially influenced macro markets, and export restrictions for semiconductors and rare earths drove volatility in key equity sectors such as tech hardware. Coming into the summit, the two countries had found a tenuous equilibrium, with the policy volatility of last year giving way to an uneasy calm this year. So, did the summit change anything? As best we can tell, not really. Some modest progress was made in lower sensitivity areas, but investors shouldn't confuse that with a durable reset in relations. The summit, in our view, points to a more managed relationship, not a fundamentally stable one. Here's what investors should keep in mind. At the risk of stating the obvious, the concrete public policy choices of each country matter a lot from here. President Trump emphasized renewed investment in the U.S.-China relationship. That's good. Talking beats not talking. But the bigger issue is what happens next. So far, we haven't seen broad language around joint efforts to establish trade and investment cooperation boards translated into workable arrangements; which if they materialized might hint at a more stable relationshipSo, net-net for investors, the summit is best understood as a continuation of the status quo, not a pivot. It may reduce near-term tail risks, which is sufficient to support the many other positive drivers pushing equity markets higher. But it does not eliminate the structural forces behind U.S.-China competition. That means we'll keep tracking this relationship as an economic and markets catalyst and keep you in the loop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As AI changes the video game industry, Matt Cost, from Morgan Stanley's U.S. Internet team, takes us through the game play and what could drive the next level of engagement.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matt Cost, from Morgan Stanley's U.S. Internet team. Today – how new AI tools are reshaping the video game industry. It's Wednesday, May 27th, at 10am in New York. We've all done it at some point. You think you'll open your phone for just a few minutes. But end up in a game, a match, or a virtual world for much longer than you planned. Now, that window of attention is at the heart of one of the biggest battles in entertainment. Americans over 15 years old spend about 22 minutes per day playing games – that's more than they spend socializing, playing sports, or reading. And the next big shift in gaming may stem from who gets to create games and how they do it. We expect consumers to spend more than $275 billion on video games in 2026. And the industry is reinvesting over $50 billion of that into game development and operations. But AI could cut that by nearly half. Today, making a major game is expensive, slow, and labor-intensive. A typical AAA title – the gaming equivalent of a studio blockbuster – can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and take four years to build. More than 90 percent of that cost is people: so that's developers, designers, artists, writers and many more. But AI could change that math. New tools could increase productivity multiple times over, helping smaller teams do more in less time. Even after accounting for AI compute and asset-generation expense, we think that cost savings could exceed 40 percent. That's over $100 million per game project. Across the industry, that could generate savings of roughly $22 billion. But that money won't just go straight to profits. Increased competition may erode those savings. And studios might put more money into marketing in response. So, AI could still meaningfully shift value across the gaming ecosystem.The positives are clear. AI can speed up coding, asset creation, testing, and many other processes that are manual today. That'll let studios spend less time on repetitive work and more time on higher-value creative tasks. But it's tough for newcomers to level up. AI does open the door for new players, but we think the industry looks more insulated from near-term disruption than the market fears – especially for companies with strong IP and advantages in live operations, data, and distribution. AI can help generate worlds, characters, and digital assets, but great gameplay is harder. Gameplay is the feel, the challenge, the feedback, and the fun. Models still struggle to measure that, let alone deliver it consistently. Live operations are another moat for established gaming companies. Many successful games don't end at launch. Teams run them for years through updates, events, and passionate communities. That skill is hard to copy. And often it determines whether a game becomes a lasting franchise or fades quickly. So gradual integration of AI looks more likely than overnight replacement. Finally, the largest opportunity may still be on the horizon. Beyond lowering the cost of making today's games, AI could unlock entirely new types of interactive experiences that didn't exist until now. And the game industry has been through this process before, when new technologies like smartphones changed games forever. But ultimately, the prize is still the same: building something that people can't stop playing.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya looks at why spending not only on AI, but also on energy and defense, could drive Asia's strongest industrial cycle in decades.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – why Asia is headed toward its strongest industrial cycle since the mid-2000s. It's Tuesday, May 26th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. The market narrative in Asia has been narrowly – almost exclusively – focused on artificial intelligence. But AI is just one aspect of a much broader shift across the region. We think Asia is entering an industrial supercycle. And this is being driven by a sustained rise in capital expenditures across AI, energy, defense and [the] broader industrial sector. The numbers behind this are substantial. We forecast Asia's total investment could rise from about $11 trillion today to $16 trillion by 2030. So this implies a 7 percent annual growth rate over the next five years, which is triple the pace of the past two years, making it quite significant. And for the high growth sector such as AI, energy, defense and broader industrial sector we expect capex to grow at an even faster runrate of about 16 percent a year. Now let's talk about the drivers. No doubt, the first big driver behind this momentum is AI. Asia needs to invest more in AI infrastructure. At the same time, Asian chipmakers and memory producers are lifting capex to meet demand of U.S. hyperscalers for building data centres. The second driver is energy. Asia needs to invest in the energy sector for three reasons – for powering AI, energy transition and energy security. The power demand for AI compute is growing exponentially. On top of that, economies are having to shift towards renewables, and that needs more investment in grids, storage, and power generation equipment. Moreover, the recent geopolitical tensions have made energy security a bigger policy priority, especially for Asia which is dependent on imported energy. The third driver is defense. Now, even before the recent escalation in the Middle East, defense budgets across Asia were moving higher. This year, China has planned their defense spending to grow at a pace faster than its GDP growth. Meanwhile, India has raised budgetary allocations for defense capex by 18 percent this year. At the same time, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are aiming to lift their combined defense spending from about 1.7 percent of GDP to 3 percent. The fourth driver is broader industrial sector investment. Every economy in the region is working to secure their supply chains and focused more on onshoring of critical inputs for their domestic production. So what does this mean for Asia? The region stands to reap the benefits of a rise in capex [spending] twice over. First, the increase in Asia's capex will fuel its industrial cycle. Second, you have to consider [that] Asia is the world's production house. And as rest of the world is increasing capex investment in the areas I identified earlier, Asia benefits from feeding this global demand. Already, the evidence of a strong industrial cycle is visible. We prefer to look at capital goods imports as a proxy for capex. And that has been growing at an impressive rate of 27 percent on a year-over-year basis in dollar terms. Industrial production [growth] is nearing a four-year high. And non-tech exports, which are important from industrial production perspective, have staged a strong recovery since the fourth quarter of last year. So which Asian economies will benefit? As such, all of them. But China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are the biggest beneficiaries because they are meeting both domestic and export demands. On the other hand, India's industrial sector benefits primarily from its own domestic capex cycle. The pickup in Asia's industrial production is pushing industrial commodities prices higher, helping Australia and Indonesia, the two biggest commodity exporters in the region. This next chapter of Asia's growth story will filter through – from capex to jobs and income growth, and then through to the consumer. That's why this is not just an AI story. It will become a broader economic recovery across the region. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

What's actually happening in the housing market right now and how should property managers respond? In this episode, Marc Cunningham sits down with housing market expert Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates to unpack the macro housing trends shaping the future of property management. Ivy shares why today's market is more segmented than ever, how overbuilding in Sunbelt markets is impacting rents and occupancy, and why affordability (not inventory) is the real issue facing housing today. Marc and Ivy also dive into the growing disconnect between renewal rents and market rents, why occupancy matters more than price in the current environment, and what property managers should be telling owner clients right now. This conversation is packed with insights on build-to-rent communities, investor behavior, reluctant landlords, concessions, demographics, and what property managers should expect over the next several years in both the rental and for-sale housing markets. If you want to better understand the "why" behind today's market conditions and how to communicate those realities to owners this episode is essential listening. Zelman & Associates - Learn more about Zelman & Associates Property Manager Websites - the highest performing property management website in the industry Vendoroo- An always-on AI teammate to handle all aspects of maintenance Enterprise Bank & Trust - Property Management banking specialists   Rentvine - the property management software you can trust   Lending One - real estate loans for investors   Reconcile Daily - corporate & trust accounting experts   PMbuild - Marc's education for property managers   Denver Property Management - Grace Property Management website This podcast is produced by Two Brothers Creative.

NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin Van Trump shares his “bushels are bullets” perspective in regards to his crop marketing, along with other relevant analogies to help producers see the big picture and know when to fire their guns! Kevin and Todd dive into the Macro arena where yields and the stock markets are high and consumer sentiment isn’t. Just a reminder that the stock market is not the economy, as they discuss what you should be keeping your eyes on. Kevin goes on to share his hard-earned ag tech investing approach – if you invest in the space, DON’T miss this part near the end. Another great episode you don’t want to miss!

In this episode of Fast Casual Nation, host Paul Barron sits down with Chris Treloar, CEO of PLNT Burger, and Trace Miller, founder of Konala Protein Bowls, to break down what health-forward fast casual actually looks like in 2025 and beyond. From PLNT Burger's high-volume Whole Foods footprint to Konala's drive-thru protein bowl model built for busy families, the conversation covers menu strategy, the rise of nutritional literacy, GLP-1's impact on dining behavior, and why the future of fast food isn't the death of convenience — it's making healthy eating just as convenient as the golden arches. #FastCasualNation #HealthyFastFood #PlantBased Get Your Podcast Now! Are you a hospitality or restaurant industry leader looking to amplify your voice and establish yourself as a thought leader? Look no further than SavorFM, the premier podcast platform designed exclusively for hospitality visionaries like you. Take the next step in your industry leadership journey – visit https://www.savor.fm/ Capital & Advisory: Are you a fast-casual restaurant startup or a technology innovator in the food service industry? Don't miss out on the opportunity to tap into decades of expertise. Reach out to Savor Capital & Advisory now to explore how their seasoned professionals can propel your business forward. Discover if you're eligible to leverage our unparalleled knowledge in food service branding and technology and take your venture to new heights. Don't wait – amplify your voice or supercharge your startup's growth today with Savor's ecosystem of industry-leading platforms and advisory services. Visit https://www.savor.fm/capital-advisory

Real Vision's Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they're watching next. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Real Vision's Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they're watching next.

**Will we see you at Macro ‘n Chill on Tuesday? You're invited to join our online gathering where we listen to the episode together and share our insights and questions. May 26 at 8pm ET/5pm PT. Use this link to register https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/UHE6NoSDRbibqXYAeJJ8gQ Disinformation is neither an accident nor excess; it is the normal functioning of late capitalism's media apparatus. Our friend Mickey Huff, executive director of Project Censored, talks with Steve about the machinery of modern propaganda, algorithmic control, and billionaire-owned media ecosystems. Their conversation highlights key tensions of a base and superstructure in decay. Mickey lays out the historical continuity of media manipulation, and they bring up surveillance as a class weapon and electoral distraction as a dead end. (Mickey may be the first guest to mention Gilens and Page before Steve does.)From Silicon Valley oligarchs and tech monopolies to the collapse of local journalism and the rise of curated realities, Steve and Mickey frame today's information war as a struggle over who gets to shape “common sense.” Critical media literacy is not about neutral fact-checking but about exposing whose interests a narrative serves.Mickey Huff is Executive Director of Project Censored, President of the nonprofit Media Freedom Foundation, and Distinguished Director of the Park Center for Independent Media at Ithaca College Find his full bio at https://www.projectcensored.org/mickey-huff/@ProjectCensored on X

Markets tend to be myopic, focussing on the latest shiny thing, like a magpie, and recently the latest US earnings season was in focus, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall first-quarter earnings jumped 29% from a year earlier; but now that is in the rear view mirror, investors are … Continue reading "Bond Macro Warns As Markets Feed On Strong Earnings, For Now…"

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

Brief Summary:Bitcoin failed to hold gains above $82K and traded back into the $77K-$78K range as macro pressure and ETF outflows weighed on marketsEthereum continued underperforming near $2,130 while traders watched major liquidation zones around the $2,000 levelCoinGlass data showed massive long liquidations across crypto markets, with Bitcoin alone seeing roughly $190 million wiped outU.S. Bitcoin ETFs have now experienced roughly $1 billion in recent outflows as institutional demand weakensMichael Saylor reiterated Strategy's aggressive long-term Bitcoin accumulation plansHyperliquid-related ETF products reportedly attracted $16 million in inflows within nine trading daysThe Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a bipartisan 15-9 voteDemocrats raised concerns about anti-money laundering enforcement, stablecoins, and DeFi oversight in the billReports indicate the SEC is exploring a framework for tokenized stock trading platformsTreasury yields and interest rate concerns continue pressuring crypto and other speculative assets Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey.  In this podcast, we discuss: The Hormuz Supply Shock Stagflation as the New Base Case AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds A Hawkish Fed Outlook Canada's Productivity Pivot The USMCA Trade Cloud Private Market Maturation Normalizing Credit Defaults AI's Private Market Future

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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss the latest Uk economic and political developments. How has it impacted the outlook for UK rates and the pound?

It's great to be back on the podcasting seat! Watch it on YouTube or listen on every podcast app. This podcast is about gathering investment management intelligence. It's not an investment podcast where we discuss macro itself. Yet macro matters. This was a rare opportunity to understand how it works for sophisticated hybrid investors, and what goes on behind the scenes by talking to Dylan Smith from ArcMacro (Tangents on Substack).A few selected quotes from our conversationMacro for private market investorsIf you have in mind private market performance, […] it's long term and returns are driven by slightly different things, although they are affected by macro. We've re-looked at the economics toolkit. We've kept most of it, but we've shifted the focus to say, okay, we've got to be a lot more long term. We've got to be a lot more structural.That's Dylan key differentiator. He's serving private market LPs. But I think his framework is applicable to anyone with a longer term perspective.Signal vs. Noise - 2026 version  Every time someone meets me for the first time, it's, "Oh, you're an economist. What a great time to be an economist," like, "There's so much chaos in the world."I did not bring up the famous Lenin quote in the conversation: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” although I had it in mind after Venezuela, Iran. But the conversation showed me I was making a common mistake: People tend to view often developments almost as entirely political, and I think partly that's the news media's fault because that's their natural lens as they report.We went on to discuss this signal and noise in more depth. But ultimately having a solid macro grounding helps to avoid investment biases. But it doesn't mean you should only stay the course without doing anything. We also talked about hedging, and shifts in allocation.Assign probabilities Our primary framework is scenario-based. But it's not just sticking our fingers in the air and saying, there's a whole universe of things that could happen. It's based on understanding that, events now chain into the future, and they can branch away. But we can assign pretty good probabilities around that by mixing some fairly sophisticated modeling and data.This is quite different, and a lot more practical from thge traditional perspective of an economist producing ONE forecast, usually with a lot of caveats.AI and the Dunning-Kruger effect in macro AI is about averages, and it's backward-looking. It produces the next most likely token based on its understanding of all the past information. You're trying to think about scenarios, what might happen in the future and what's important about the differences and inflection points. Like, is this a meaningful shift in the kind of structure of the economy? It's too sophisticated for AI to answer. It will give you an answer, and it will sound confident about it, but there's a huge amount of risk in that. And if you already have certain biases or you're low down on the Dunning-Kruger scale, or you know you're not great at macro, but you get this kind of answer it's very tempting to treat that as the truth and act on it.We covered a lot, and yes of course we spoke about Iran and the Trump administration too.Related episode:About Dylan Smith:Dylan Smith is the independent chief economist for private markets. Combining experience in macroeconomics and alternative investing he delivers insights with the frequency, horizon and granularity that private markets need.https://arcmacro.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-smith-78284b50/About the Investlogy podcast:Investology is the investment management intelligence show. Where innovators, investors, authors and experts discuss the future of investment management beyond the hype.Listen on every podcast platform, or watch on YouTube.An episode produced by Orama:For fintechs and enterprise vendors selling to financial institutions. We turn your expertise into narratives that build trust and relationships with decision-makers.About George Aliferis:Founder or Orama, ex-banker, ex-sales, working at the intersection of investment management, media & marketing.LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-aliferis-60078312/My Other Channels* Investorama - Separating Investment Facts from Financial Fiction (YouTube)* Orama's newsletter & Unsloppable podcast for marketers and revenue teams in complex industries: This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit investorama.substack.com

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Morgan Downey. They discuss the ongoing crisis, with Morgan warning that all buffers and safety margins have been exhausted, explaining why a Strait closure lasting another month could drive oil prices to $150–$200, and exploring several other critical dimensions of this rapidly evolving situation. https://bit.ly/3Pe3zpa    

Recorded live at the Morgan Stanley and MUFG Japan Summit, our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter led a discussion on Asia's exposure to the energy shock and Japan's bullish outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And on today's episode, we're bringing you a live taping direct from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit to discuss the macroeconomic overlook. And, in particular, Japan's moment: reflation, reform, and the case for a structural re-rating. I am joined by Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist; Takeshi Yamaguchi, our Chief Japan Economist; Jonathan Garner, our Chief Asia and EM Equity Strategist; Koichi Sugisaki, who is our Head of Japan Macro Strategy; and Sho Nakazawa, who is our Japan Equity Strategist. Seth Carpenter: I will say we have just collectively published our mid-year outlook. So twice a year, Morgan Stanley Macro Research puts together our forecast. We take the time to debate with each other, to pressure test our views on the outlook for the next year and a half to two years. And I have to say this version of the outlook process may have been the most difficult one that I can remember. And in no small part because one of the key fundamental drivers of the outlook globally for growth, for inflation is oil, oil prices. And the swings there have been pretty dramatic. And so, as a result, we put a lot of effort into not just our baseline forecast, but also scenarios and the ways in which our baseline forecast could be wrong. But Chetan, let me start with you. Tell us a little bit about the exposure in Asia to, to the energy shock. Chetan Ahya: So Seth, you're right. Asia is one of the more exposed part of the world. But I would say that we've been surprised in the way this energy shock has been managed. One is, of course, at the global level, two big swings happened. US exports increased dramatically by 3.8 million barrels per day. Just to give you perspective, global consumption of oil is about 100 million barrels, so it's simple math in terms of how big this number was. And then China parallelly also reduced its imports by 3.5 million barrels. So, we had a 7 million barrel swing from a global oil demand balance perspective.And, secondly, as far as gas is concerned, that is where actually we were more concerned about Asia because Asia was very dependent on Middle Eastern gas. And on that front, China single-handedly has bailed out the region. So, China cut its gas imports by about 45 percent, and that had at least avoided the shortages that we were worried about. We can manage oil prices, but shortages is something very difficult to manage. So that's at the global level. And within the region, what every economy did is to switch to an alternative source of fuel, whether it is electricity generated through coal or other renewable sources. And particularly that happened in China and India, which are the two big importers of fuel in the region.And then additionally, what we also saw is that everybody managed the fuel price increase quite well. So, on an average, if I look at the stats as of today, only about 25 to 30 percent of the underlying fuel price increase has been passed on to the consumer. So, the governments are taking it, so there is a burden on the fiscal front that is building up. But as far as the consumers are concerned, this has been a help, and therefore you have not seen a big spike in inflation across the region. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So, a lot of comments about Asia in general. Let's go more specific to here in Japan. And so, Yamaguchi-san, you were an early adopter of the Japan reflation view. If we go back a year, two years, three years, you were probably more optimistic, more bullish about growth in the market than consensus. More recently, you've been a little bit more cautious about where growth is going. And so, can you tell us a little bit first why you're a bit more cautious now relative to where I suspect the market is? And then when it comes to the energy shock, how do you see it playing out with the Japanese economy? And should we worry about it derailing this whole reflation trade? Takeshi Yamaguchi: We think Japanese underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that, you know, nominal GDP recovery will continue as a trend. But for this year, I think there's a, you know, short-term slowdown, both in terms of real GDP growth and nominal GDP growth, due to the terms of a trade shock. So far, you know, thanks to the government energy subsidies and Japan's relatively large strategic oil reserves, the direct impact on households has been limited. But we are already seeing a big increase in producer prices in the April data. It jumped to 4.9 percent {year-over-year], and we expect this producer price index will continue to go up due to the higher oil prices, but also because of the NAFTA-related supply side, you know, disruptions in areas, you know, such as, you know, construction materials, plastic products, and industrial solvents and so on. That said, we still believe that, you know, underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that there's a structural labor shortage. So, wage growth may somewhat slow, but still I think a solid, you know, base up increase will continue next year, especially among young workers. Also, I think this structural tight labor market [is] encouraging companies to step up labor-saving investment. And, I think, together with government's initiatives for domestic investment, I think, domestic CapEx will also likely remain resilient. So, this year for nominal GDP growth, we expect, you know, slightly negative growth due to the terms of trade loss. But the next year, we are expecting above 4 percent nominal GDP growth. So, the overall, you know, story remains unchanged despite the short-term headwinds. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So fundamental story remains unchanged. We're pretty optimistic, but it's a matter of long term versus short term Jonathan, let me turn to you. Equity markets are generally optimistic, I would say, these days, but there is a bit of a divergence between views on equities here in Asia, between Japan on the one hand, and EM overall. In the mid-year outlook, you have expressed a preference for Japanese equities over EM. Can you talk a little bit about that view? Why that preference? Are there sectors or specific stocks that matter more? How are you thinking about this sort of allocation across equity markets for you in Asia? Jonathan Garner: So, certainly, as Seth indicated and Chetan and Yamaguchi-san said, it's really an environment where the sector call, particularly the CapEx, super cycle call should drive portfolios. And that naturally leads you in Asia more to North Asia, where Japan is very richly endowed in beneficiaries of the CapEx super cycle. And obviously markets like Korea and Taiwan, and much less so to South Asia, where the larger markets are much more populated by consumer and services stocks. So, in our portfolio, we're essentially overweight capital spending, underweight the consumer. And when you look at the Japan market, one of the things that my colleague Daniel Blake has done a lot of work is, is the sort of thematic exposures that exist within our coverage. The four core Morgan Stanley research themes of multipolar world, AI, tech diffusion, future of energy and societal shifts, they map into about 75 percent by stock number of our coverage for the Japan market, and they're quite nicely distributed across the stock coverage. Obviously, some stocks have more than one aspect to them. And that is highly advantageous and much more advantageous than in fact any other large market. Europe of course, doesn't have AI, tech diffusion, or it largely lacks the beneficiaries, the upstream beneficiaries. The US has legacy, sort of, software service, business models and consumer exposure. Now, it's not to say that all is sort of rosy in the garden. There are large auto OEMs here in Japan where the earnings numbers are challenged. So, it's all about the kind of the dispersion that's going on within the portfolio. But just on the base case targets, 4300 for topics, that's set by Nakazawa-san and myself. It's about 12 percent upside in the base. In the two weeks since we published the report, EM has fallen back somewhat, so there's about 8 percent upside to our EM target. But on a kind of risk-adjusted bull-bear skew, bear in mind that EM is much more skewed in terms of the earnings drivers of that market. Essentially, if you strip Korea and Taiwan out, there's no earnings growth in EM right now. You would ultimately have to favor Japan. So, Japan should be at the core of any Asia portfolio at the moment. Seth Carpenter: And can you just give us a little insight as to what you're seeing about how the market is or maybe is not pricing the threat from the energy shock? What are you seeing in equity markets, top line, down into sectors? Do you think there's enough concern? Do you think there's room for that to get, sort of, rerated just on the energy shock situation? Jonathan Garner: So, what you're seeing is that anything that is consumer-related is really struggling in terms of revisions. I think there are six different subcomponents of the consumer that we can track. Every single one of them has downgrades. And the upgrades are in energy, upstream energy, which isn't that well represented in Japan. There are a couple of names. In materials, really across the board. In semis and IT across the board, and broadly, tech hardware. And then in the defense capital goods space. And that dispersion in revisions within the Japan market or within Asia as a whole is something that I've never seen before.It does maybe to some extent question the resilience of the consumer in terms of the way that the numbers are being downgraded. So, I'll just leave that hanging a little bit. Seth Carpenter: Alright, thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much everybody. Voice: That was Part 1 of a special two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit. Join us tomorrow for Part 2 of the conversation.

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Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned to provide her monthly outlook in today's livestream.She remains concerned that rising bond yields will be the kryptonite that brings the economy to its knees -- sending the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate downwards.Will Kevin Warsh be able to help us avoid this fate?Find out by clicking here or on the video below.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #bondyields #stockmarketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

On today's episode Big T and Arian are back in the studio to discuss everything going on in the news. They get into the PGA Tour and golf, youth/travel sports, colleges and universities that are in debt, alpha-gal syndrome, Pizza Hut nostalgia and much more. Enjoy! (00:10:13) PGA Tour (00:28:16) Youth Travel Sports (00:43:39) Universities/Colleges In Debt (00:53:49) Alpha-Gal Syndrome (01:03:15) Pizza Hut (01:07:03) Arian's Teed Off (01:14:36) Iceman Go to http://shadyrays.com and use code MACRO for 50% off 2+ pairs of polarized sunglasses. Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial today at https://SHOPIFY.COM/dose Get yours now at https://stellabluecoffee.com, Amazon and select retailers across the country.You can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

Macro analyst Craig Tindale joins Natalie Brunell to break down the "hard bifurcation" — the widening gap between our financial system and the physical world it depends on. From Elon Musk's warning of an imminent electricity shortage to the trillion-dollar AI buildout hitting a wall of copper, transformers, and power, this is a sharp look at why you can't print real-world commodities. We discuss: The paper ledger vs. the material ledger — and why it matters Why US defense relies on foreign supply chains How China quietly took balance sheet control of Western miners The energy and copper crunch slowing the AI boom Follow Craig: https://x.com/ctindale | https://ctindale.substack.com/ ---- Order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," a simple introduction to Bitcoin and what's broken in our current financial system: https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU  --- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Earn up to 4% back in sats on everyday purchases like gas and groceries. Sign up today https://www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Ledn is the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Get .25% off your first loan, learn more at https://www.Ledn.io/natalie  ---- Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie  ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product Partners: Check out my favorite lightning wallet and trivia app Speed Wallet. If you're a business, let Speed help you accept BTC like they did for Steak 'n Shake! Visit http://speed.app/natalie/ and use code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world   Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie  With BitcoinIRA, you can invest in bitcoin 24/7 inside a tax-advantaged IRA. Choose a Traditional IRA to defer taxes, or a Roth IRA for tax-free withdrawals later. Take control of your future with BitcoinIRA: https://www.bitcoinira.com/natalie  Natalie's Upcoming Events: Strategy is hosting a retail investor Q&A virtually on May 20 at 5pm ET. Submit your questions for Michael Saylor and Phong Le: https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1RJjpzBkEmjKw  Join us for the biggest Bitcoin conference in Europe at BTC Prague this June 10-13 with a keynote from Michael Saylor, Code HODL for discounted passes: https://btcprague.com/  The best time to plan for Bitcoin 2027 is right now. Early bird tickets are live — grab the lowest pricing available and use code HODL for 10% off: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2027?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=HODL  Extra Services to Consider: Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie   Ditch your fiat health insurance like I did four years ago! Join me at CrowdHealth: www.joincrowdhealth.com/natalie  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. Ads in this episode are baked-in and may reference promotions or offers that are no longer available at the time of listening. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

Our Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research Betsy Graseck explains how digital assets could reshape market infrastructure and how money moves, without overthrowing wholesale banking.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Today, we are looking out to 2030 to estimate what we expect the impact of digital assets could be on global wholesale banking.It's Monday, May 18th at 3:30 PM in New York.We live in a world where money can move instantly. A payment or transfer can happen in a matter of minutes, if not seconds, in real time. But much of the financial system runs on older networks for moving cash and securities. These networks are what the industry calls rails. We expect clients will be looking for faster settlement across global banking services, driving the industry to adopt digital asset rails over the next decade.We see three key drivers pushing this today. Number one, market support is out there for fintechs, which is increasing their competitiveness. Number two, global legislation and regulation is clarifying requirements for enabling digital asset services led by the U.S. with the Genius Act in 2025, and with the forward motion being made on the Clarity Act in 2026. The third driver of digital asset transformation is that exchanges are extending hours and moving towards offering 24/7 capabilities over the next several years.Now, we expect digital assets will have two major impacts on global wholesale banks. First, as banks lean into servicing crypto assets, we see the potential for an additional $1.5 [billion] to $8 billion in revenues in 2030, which adds up to 1 percent to our global wholesale banks revenue forecast of $770 billion in 2030.Second, impact on global wholesale banks is a risk. There is risk when money is in motion, and money could be set in motion as clients migrate revenues from traditional asset rails to digital asset rails. We anticipate this could impact $21 billion to $82 billion of revenues in 2030, primarily in cross-border payments, liquidity management, collateral management, businesses.Now, while this transformation is likely to impact the industry over the next decade as more services go digital, we expect several catalysts in the second half will focus investor attention on these changes now. What are those catalysts? Number one, Clarity Act. The Clarity Act passing Congress would open up the door for wholesale banks to service crypto asset class more holistically.Second catalyst, the DTCC, which is a major infrastructure player for securities markets in the U.S. The DTCC will be adding tokenized products in the fall of 2026. And then lastly, Nasdaq and NYSE are planning to extend trading hours on December 6th, 2026, to 23 hours by five days a week.Now, what should investors make of all of this? Number one critical to understand how the investments that you have today are positioned for this transformation. Are managements protecting their strengths by developing capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly run on digital rails?Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the aftermath of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. They also dive into rising bond yields, whether markets should start worrying about rates again, and if the latest inflation reports signal something more persistent beneath the surface. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you!  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Microdosing is everywhere right now, but most people are doing it completely wrong. In this conversation with Paul Austin, founder of Third Wave and author of Mastering Microdosing, we dive deep into why the sub-perceptual model everyone talks about misses the mark, how microdosing differs fundamentally from meditation (and why that matters), and what the latest clinical research actually shows. We explore the overlooked power of intention, the neuroscience of the 5-HT2A receptor, and why Albert Hoffman may have been onto something for those final 30 years of his life. If you're curious about psychedelics but don't know where to start, or if you're already exploring this space, this episode cuts through the noise. 00:00 Microdosing: Most People Are Doing It Wrong03:51 What Is Microdosing? Macro vs Micro Explained09:14 Tolerance Windows and Neuroplasticity (BDNF)11:38 Why Clinical Research on Microdosing Failed19:03 LSD, Psilocybin, Wachuma: Three Core Medicines26:15 LSD Semi-Synthetic vs Natural: The Difference29:28 Why MDMA Microdosing Is Dangerous37:05 Parts Work, Somatic Therapy, and Relational Healing45:06 Community Over Pills: A Spiritual Model46:08 The Real Downsides: Legality and Dependence47:52 Three Critical Rules for Safe Microdosing51:43 Finding Clean Sources and Golden Rule53:19 Connect with Paul: Resources and Training Programs54:39 Closing and Final Thoughts LEARN MORE ABOUT Paul Austin· Founder, Third Wave: thethirdwave.co· Author, Mastering Microdosing: How to Use Subperceptual Psychedelics to Heal Trauma, Improve Performance, and Transform Your Life· Psychedelic Coaching Institute: psychedeliccoaching.institute· Social Media: @paulaustin (LinkedIn, X, Instagram) JOIN MY COMMUNITY In The Space Between membership, you'll get access to LIVE quarterly Ask Amy Anything meetings (not offered anywhere else!), discounts on courses, special giveaways, and a place to connect with Amy and other like-minded people. You'll also get exclusive access to other behind-the-scenes goodness when you join! Click here to find out more --> https://shorturl.at/vVrwR Stay Connected: - Instagram - https://tinyurl.com/ysvafdwc- Facebook - https://tinyurl.com/yc3z48v9- YouTube - https://tinyurl.com/ywdsc9vt- Website - https://tinyurl.com/ydj949kt Life, Death & the Space Between Dr. Amy RobbinsExploring life, death, consciousness and what it all means. Put your preconceived notions aside as we explore life, death, consciousness and what it all means on Life, Death & the Space Between.**Brought to you by:Dr. Amy Robbins | Host, Executive ProducerPodcastize.net | Audio & Video Production | Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bitcoin just dumped to $76,711 — its lowest level in over two weeks — with $660 million in liquidations vaporized in hours as the Iran war, sticky inflation, and a fresh wave of risk-off positioning sent the entire crypto market into a tailspin. The pain is bleeding into Main Street too: Toyota is warning of motor oil shortages, grocery prices just jumped 3.2% year-over-year, and crude oil remains elevated as Putin lands in Beijing to meet Xi just days after Trump's own summit. Meanwhile, NYDIG warns the CLARITY Act could stall past the midterms if the Senate doesn't move before August, Iran is reportedly launching a Bitcoin-settled shipping insurance scheme through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's pivot on Chinese farmland and student visas has MAGA in open revolt. Is this a textbook "sell the news" flush after the CLARITY Act win, or the start of something much deeper? Buy the dip — or run for the hills? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Beyond Macro: A Value Lens on Emerging Markets Equity Most investors approach emerging markets top-down: country-level macro calls, currency bets, commodity cycles. But what if those assumptions are exactly what gets in the way of potential returns? What if the single most important variable isn't the macro backdrop, but the price you pay? On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar is joined by Vera German and Juan Torres, Portfolio Managers on Neuberger's Emerging Markets Equity team, to discuss why a disciplined value lens may be the most natural — and most overlooked — way to approach emerging market equities. Together, they discuss: Why fast-growing economies have often produced lackluster equity returns How state-owned enterprises are misunderstood, and why blanket avoidance may leave value on the table What's wrong with benchmarking to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Where the valuation screen is pointing today, including Southeast Asia, Brazil, and China — and where to avoid How the team manages risk and position sizing in a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio Why emerging markets may be one of the most compelling asset classes for active, value-oriented investors today   This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. This communication is not directed at any investor or category of investors and should not be regarded as investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Neuberger is not providing this material in a fiduciary capacity and has a financial interest in the sale of its products and services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Use of Artificial Intelligence Tools. Neuberger may utilize AI tools in its business operations to improve operational efficiency and for assistance in research and analyzing data among other uses. AI tools are dependent on historical data, consequently, if the content or analyses that AI applications assist Neuberger in producing are or are alleged to be deficient, inaccurate, or biased, a client account may be adversely affected. Additionally, AI tools used by Neuberger may produce inaccurate, misleading or incomplete responses that could lead to errors in Neuberger's and its employees' judgement, decision-making, investment research or other business activities, which could have a negative impact on the performance of a client account. The application of AI in investment processes, research, or analysis is evolving and subject to limitations, including data quality, algorithmic biases, and interpretive errors. AI outputs should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. No assurance is given regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information generated by AI. This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit www.nb.com/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions. The "Neuberger" name and logo are service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. © 2026 Neuberger Berman Group LLC. All rights reserved. M-002531

The collapse in trust of the mainstream corporate press in the aftermath of the COVID-19 era was to be expected, with many people finally waking up to the propaganda. Finding sources of authentic news has become more difficult as organizations are throttled out of existence on video platforms or hidden away by the algorithm.Indie has been curating subversive content at Indie News Now by dangerous writers, fearless journalists, and independent content creators for years. His network of shows bridges the gap from deep state politics to light non-state comedy.—Guest LinksIndie: www.IndieNewsNow.com—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—

It appears that the script calls for Donald Trump to take control of the United States in 2025, and that would be of great interest to the Heritage Foundation. The conservative NGO, which was founded in 1973, had already tried to influence the White House with a massive manifesto of preferences and demands for the new administration back in 1980 when Reagan was transitioning into office.Project 2025 is a massive 922-page book called “Mandate for Leadership - the Conservative Promise.” Its mission is to guide the policies of the new Republican president, and pave the way for an effective conservative administration based on four pillars: Policy, Personnel, Training, and Playbook.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang explains why investors should stay constructive in 2026, even as oil prices and geopolitics add volatility.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today: our mid-year market outlook across regions and asset classes.It's Friday, May 15th, at 10am in New York.If you've winced at the gas pump, hesitated before booking a flight, or checked your 401(k) a little more often than usual, you already understand the forces driving markets now. Energy prices and geopolitics are creating real uncertainty. But underneath that uncertainty, companies are still investing, earnings are still holding up, and AI is becoming one of the biggest spending cycles in the global economy.That's why our message for the rest of 2026 is – be constructive, not complacent.Let's start with the constructive part. Across markets, macro and micro fundamentals support risk assets. In the U.S., growth should hold up. For investors, this suggests favoring stocks over core fixed income and developed-market equities — especially the U.S. – in particular. Our U.S. Equity Strategist's S&P 500 target for mid-2027 stands at 8,300, supported by expected earnings growth of 23 percent in 2026 and 12 percent in 2027. The momentum in returns is coming from improving earnings.Now, a striking data point: the median S&P 500 company delivered a 6 percent earnings surprise in the first quarter – the strongest in four years. Earnings revisions breadth also improved sharply.AI explains a major part of that strength. It has become a capital spending story – and increasingly, a credit market story. A year ago, we projected combined capex for the biggest hyperscalers at around [$]450 billion in both 2026 and 2027. Now, that estimate has moved to roughly [$]800 billion in 2026 and [$]1.16 trillion in 2027. AI infrastructure – data centers, power, chips, networks – should shape equities, credit, rates and even commodities for years to come.But here's where the not complacent part matters.There's another side to the AI boom. Building all those data centers, chips, power systems and networks requires significant investment. And companies won't fund all of it with cash. Many will borrow. That means more corporate bonds coming to market, especially from high-quality U.S. companies. Even if those companies look financially healthy, investors may demand better terms when they have so many new bonds to choose from. So, AI can support earnings, but it can also put some pressure on credit markets.Energy prices also pose major risk. Our base case assumes de-escalation and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the range of possible outcomes looks unusually wide. Oil prices and the duration of the Middle East supply shock are the single largest variable in our outlook. Higher oil effectively acts like a tax on consumers and businesses alike.That's why we recommend a balanced allocation with a risk-on tilt: overweight equities, underweight core fixed income, and hold other fixed income, commodities and cash at benchmark weight. Within equities, we favor the U.S. because earnings look strong and the risk-reward looks better than in other regions. Europe and Japan also offer upside, but Europe has more exposure to energy disruptions, and emerging markets lack a broad macro and micro narrative despite pockets of strength.This is all to say the cycle has not run out of road. But the road looks bumpier, narrower and more energy-sensitive than it looked a few months ago.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They discuss why the Hormuz crisis hasn't derailed the S&P 500's surge to new all-time highs, Mike's disagreement with secular-inflation forecasts, why Kevin Warsh could be more likely to cut rates aggressively than hike, and the unintended consequences of passive investing through index funds. https://bit.ly/3R6TDhH    

Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Strategy Seth Carpenter gives his midyear outlook, highlighting why AI investment and U.S. consumers remain key growth engines amid energy shocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Today, I want to talk about our mid-year outlook that was just published. It's Thursday, May 14th at 10am in New York. Oil, AI, and the consumer now sit at the center of our global economic outlook. With AI and the consumer driving economic momentum in the U.S., the key question is whether the energy shock stays manageable or changes the path for inflation, central banks, and recession risks. We have had and maintain a fundamentally constructive view on global growth, but the energy shock brings unusually high uncertainty. It boosts inflation, it weighs on growth, and it widens the range of outcomes. We forecast global real GDP growth at 3.2 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. That is relative to about 3.5 percent in 2025. So, in our baseline, growth slows modestly this year and then stabilizes and recovers. Writing a forecast is always hard but knowing what to assume about oil prices is even harder than ever now. Our base case assumes that crude returns to about $90 a barrel by the end of this year and declines further in 2027. If, and I do mean if, that happens, the global economy can likely absorb the shock. But if the current situation persists and we do not see a normalization of shipments of oil, it could spell recession. That scenario probably sees oil prices surge through $150 a barrel, but more importantly, we could shift from a price shock to a volume shock. The big risk is physical shortages and supply chain disruptions because it's not just energy, it's also petrochemical inputs to manufacturing and other items. Higher prices slow activity; shortages can stop it. Exposure to the energy shock differs sharply across regions. Among the major economies, China looks the least exposed. Europe is the most exposed, and the U.S. sits in between. China built up substantial stockpiles of oil, and part of why the global oil market has not seen higher oil prices so far is that China has cut back on those imports dramatically. Europe, on the other hand, typically faces faster energy passthrough, meaning energy prices show up much more quickly in household bills, business costs, and ultimately inflation. And Europe is a net importer of energy, so the consideration goes beyond oil to include natural gas. The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum products, but U.S. consumers will feel the pinch at the gas pump. But even with that in mind, U.S. growth continues to support global growth, thanks largely to strong AI-related capital spending and consumer spending that's being buoyed by the top end of the wealth distribution. We expect that momentum to continue and then ultimately to broaden out. And so we forecast U.S. real GDP growth at about 2.25 in 2026 but rising to about 2.5 percent in 2027. Both of those are up from the 2.1 percent we saw last year. And AI CapEx sits at the center of this U.S. outlook. It includes data centers, power infrastructure, information processing equipment, software. Over time, we think this investment momentum is part of what allows a broadening out of business investment beyond AI. That said, the energy shock has triggered global inflation. We're looking for global headline inflation to rise notably almost to 3 percent in 2026 before coming back off in 2027. But while oil and gas prices are pushing headline inflation higher, the pass-through to core, depending on the economy, seems to remain mostly limited. By 2027, we look for those effects to fade. And combined with somewhat slower growth this year, underlying inflation should soften again. As inflation risks have moved higher, though, central banks have generally become less accommodative. We expect the Fed to now stay on hold all the way through 2026, and then if inflation really does come down, to be able to cut twice in the first half of 2027. We're looking for the ECB to hike twice this year as it grapples with this energy-led inflation, but then reverse course next year in 2027. The Bank of Japan, which had already been hiking policy, probably is set to continue that gradual hiking path. Looking forward to the second half of this year though, global growth still does have a foundation, and the U.S. is a big part of that. AI investment and consumer spending are all what's driving the economy for now. But the energy outlook will determine how bumpy that path gets. Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The psychological tactic known as “Rally Around the Flag” was in full effect in the aftermath of 9/11 to galvanize a scared and angry public into launching the “War of Terror” in the Middle East. There has not been much public support for the newest war of aggression launched by the bloodthirsty American Empire and the Greater Israel Project Zionists, but that could always change.Absent a catastrophic and catalyzing event (like a new Pearl Harbor) - it is difficult to get the public to support another war, so expect just such an event in the near future. The planned famines are right around the corner, and the energy lockdowns will be a major part of it, but there must be a spark to light the fire.—Video ChannelsWatch the video version of Macroaggressions:Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/Macroaggressions YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MacroaggressionsPodcastBrighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/macroaggressions/—MACRO & Charlie Robinson LinksHypocrazy Audiobook: https://amzn.to/4aogwmsThe Octopus of Global Control Audiobook: https://amzn.to/3xu0rMmWebsite: www.Macroaggressions.ioMerch Store: https://macroaggressions.dashery.com/ Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/macroaggressionspodcast—Activist Post FamilySign up for the Activist Post Newsletter: https://activistpost.kit.com/emailsActivist Post: www.ActivistPost.comNatural Blaze: www.NaturalBlaze.com —Support Our SponsorsGround Luxe Grounding Mats: https://GroundLuxe.com/MACROReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comC60 Power: https://go.ShopC60.com/PBGRT/KMKS9/ | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body: https://ChemicalFreeBody.com/macro/ | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & Silver: https://Macroaggressions.Gold/ | (800) 426-1836LegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comEMP Shield: www.EMPShield.com | Promo Code: MACROChristian Yordanov's Health Program: www.LiveLongerFormula.com/macroAbove Phone: https://AbovePhone.com/macro/Van Man: https://VanMan.shop/?ref=MACRO | Promo Code: MACROThe Dollar Vigilante: https://DollarVigilante.spiffy.co/a/O3wCWenlXN/4471Nesa's Hemp: www.NesasHemp.com | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms: https://AugasonFarms.com/MACRO—