Podcasts about Macro

Of all the people I've interviewed since launching this Thoughtful Money channel, today's guest's portfolio management track record has been spookily accurate.The last time I interviewed, which was back in mid-March, he had drastically reduced his long positions and declared himself "ragingly bearish".And in the weeks that followed, the S&P plunged nearly 700 points to the post-Liberation Day lows.So, how is he feeling about the markets now?To find out, we'll ask the man himself.We're very fortunate to welcome back to the program Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro—a top Wall Street leading macro forecasting and market timing service.Darius thinks that current economic growth estimates are far too low and that, as a result, stocks will be forced to reprice higher as an 'explosive' bull market is born.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bullmarket #stocks #investing _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Its mid-June so it is all about the FOMC.  However, there are a lot of cross-currents out there from a fiscal and regulatory standpoint that may have differing effects on Treasury demand. What are we to do? Hard to say because even the FOMC doesn't know what to do!   Have a listen and let us know what you think

The Federal Reserve may cut faster and to a lower interest rate then the market is pricing, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Jersey flies solo on this episode, discussing his takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, his view on the timing and pace of rate cuts and what it would mean for the Treasury yield curve.

Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Research, and Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets, discuss how the conflict between Iran and Israel has introduced yet more uncertainty into financial markets.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/nwbqSGcStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

In this episode, we discuss the current macro volatility, the GENIUS Act and CRCL's price surge, and “alt season” narratives shifting to public markets. We also cover token unlock dynamics, JP Morgan's stablecoin plans, and the emerging utility of prediction markets. Thanks for tuning in! -- Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.  Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks  Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.  -- Join us from June 24th-June 26th at Permissionless IV! Use Code BELL10 at checkout for 10% off! Tickets: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Join the Bell Curve Telegram group: https://t.me/+nzyxAvQ0Xxc3YTEx -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (3:39) Market Sentiment (11:39) Arkham Ad (12:05) The GENIUS Act Passes Senate Vote (15:30) Crypto IPOs & Alt Season (24:49) Arkham Ad (25:30) The State of Crypto Infrastructure (43:53) JP Morgan Launches Pilot For JPMD (51:05) Prediction Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Episode 142: In this episode, Rosanna speaks with Danny Dayan, global macro volatility portfolio manager, about macro, markets, and money. Danny shares his macro view on the economy and what it means for markets, We discuss contrarian investing strategies and how to navigate the DOOM LOOP. There are always opportunities! Will the Markets Melt Up Like 1999? ➡️Follow Danny on X: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 ➡️Visit Danny's Substack: https://dannydayan.substack.com/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For Investment Inquiries and/or to speak to an Investment Advisor at HYDRA WEALTH ADVISORS, please visit: https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show YT Channel✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast https://rumble.com/c/c-5300605 ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA⬅️ ✨ONE SITE ♾️ https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia/ ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/RosannaInvests ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/TheROShowPod ✨WEBSITES ♾️ https://www.rosannaprestia.com/ https://www.hydracapitalgroup.co https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2025 DISCLAIMER: ANY AND ALL INFORMATION (EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED) ON THE RO SHOW, BY ROSANNA PRESTIA AND/OR HER GUESTS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL, INFORMATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. None of the opinions, suggestions or recommendations expressed or implied should be relied upon as professional advice, may not be suitable for any specific person and are not an endorsement/recommendation. Investing is risky and can result in a complete loss. Please consult with your own investment, real estate, legal, tax and/or any other professional advisers. From time to time, Rosanna Prestia and/or her guests may hold positions/interests in securities or investments. Copyright 2004-2025, ROSANNA PRESTIA ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jeff Currie. They'll discuss what Jeff calls the “New Joule Order” and why Jeff says there's really no limit to how much higher the price of Gold can go given the current macro backdrop. https://bit.ly/4na3hvu  

Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats explores three possible scenarios for oil prices in light of geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research may reference jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which are the subject of sanctions administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the United Kingdom, the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to jurisdictions, persons (individuals or entities), debt or equity instruments, or projects that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such jurisdictions, persons, instruments, or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Martijn Rats: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martin Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist. Today I'll talk about oil price dynamics amidst escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. It's Wednesday, June 18th at 3pm in London. Industry watchers with an eye on the Brent Forward Curve recently noticed a rare smile shape: downward sloping in the first couple of months, but then an upward sloping curve later this year, and into 2026. Now that changed last Friday. The oil market creates these various shapes in the Forward Curve, depending on how it sees the supply demand balance. When the forward curve is downward sloping, holding inventory really is quite unattractive; so typically, operators release barrels from storage under those conditions. The market creates that structure when the conditions are tight, and barrels indeed need to be released from storage.Now on the other end, when the market is oversupplied, oil needs to be put into inventory, and the market makes this possible by creating an upward sloping curve. So, the curve that existed until only recently told the story of some near-term tightness first, but then a substantial surplus later this year and into 2026. Now when the tensions in the Middle East escalated late last week, the oil complex responded strongly. But not only did the front-month Brent future, i.e. oil for delivery next month rise quite sharply by about 17 percent, the impact of the conflict was also felt across all future delivery dates. By now, the entire forward curve is downward sloping, which means that the oil market no longer is pricing in any surplus next year – a big change from only a few days ago. Now, no doubt, Friday's events have sharply widened the range of possible future oil price paths. However, looking ahead, we would argue that oil prices fall in three main scenarios. Together they provide a framework to navigate the oil market in the next couple of weeks and months. First, let's consider the most benign scenario. Military conflict does not always correlate with disruptions to oil supply, even in major oil producing regions. So far, there is no reduction in supply from the region. If oil and gas infrastructure remains out of the crosshairs, it is entirely possible that that continues. In that case, we might see brand prices retract to around about $60 per barrel, down from the current level of about $76 per barrel.Our second scenario recognizes that Iran's oil exports could be at risk either because of attacks on physical infrastructure or because of sanctions – mirroring the reductions that we saw during 2018's Maximum Pressure Campaign by the United States. If Iran were to lose most of its export capacity, that would broadly offset the surplus that we are currently modeling for the oil market next year, which would then in turn leave a broadly balanced market. Now in a balanced oil market, oil prices are probably in a $75 to $80 per barrel range. The third and most severe scenario encompasses a broad regional disruption, possibly pushing prices as high as 2022 levels of around $120 a barrel. Now, that could unfold if Iran targets oil infrastructure across the wider Gulf region, including critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. The situation remains very fluid, and we could see a wide spectrum of potential oil price outcomes. We believe the most likely scenario remains the first – our base case – with supply eventually remaining stable. However, the probabilities of the more severe disruptions whilst currently still lower, still justify a risk premium of about $10 per barrel for the foreseeable future. As we monitor these developments, investors should stay alert to signs such as further attacks on all infrastructure or escalations in sanctions, which could signal shifts towards our more severe scenarios. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Macro v. Micro here…the first draft of Bethpage Black's September Ryder Cup is here!*SurvivingGolf.Substack.Com*Subscribe to the newsletter for free today! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit survivinggolf.substack.com

The Fed can't stop printing. Governments won't stop spending. And the debt keeps climbing. So what 's next? In today's show, we bring on macro expert David Brickell to break down why everything from wars and deficits to rate cuts and inflation fears ultimately leads to one outcome: currency debasement.~~~~~

US Senate Passes #GENIUS Act, Supporting Payment Stablecoins #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #podcast #BasicCryptonomics #Bitcoin Website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.CryptoTalkRadio.net⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠@ThisIsCTR⁠⁠⁠⁠ Discord:⁠⁠⁠⁠ @CryptoTalkRadio⁠⁠⁠⁠ Chapters (00:00:01) - Bitcoin's Price: Will It Continue To Go Up?(00:01:27) - Tremor for Calls and More(00:02:14) - Bitcoin's price is artificially inflated, according to YouTubers(00:06:48) - Bitcoin and Ethereum: When Are We At a Bull Run?(00:08:26) - The Saitama Scam Syndicate Scammer Gets Prison Time(00:12:36) - Got bitched on the wrist(00:13:32) - Stablecoin Legislation: The GENIUS Act(00:19:10) - Prohibits Unlawful Stablecoins(00:24:57) - Stable Coin Bill(00:25:57) - Macro vs Micro: What's The Difference?(00:31:18) - Sentiment and the Bottom Line

En el capítulo 880 de este miércoles, 18 de junio, @franaldaya te cuenta sobre el IPIM de mayo, a qué cupón colocó bonos el Macro y la jornada de volatilidad en Wall Street. Además, Belén Escobar en el #DatoEconómico de la semana, hoy con Melina Eidner, economista de Portfolio Personal Inversiones. 

In this edition of DIG IT Peter Brown and Chris Day chat with Chris Baines who is recognised as one of the UK's leading independent environmentalists and greatest pioneers in wildlife gardening. His best-selling book, How To Make A Wildlife Garden was published back in 1985 and has been in print continually ever since. Chris's ethos is simply to encourage us all to think more about wildlife and give it a helping hand in our gardens!People and places: Key Inspiration from Christopher Lloyd (Great Dixter Garden) and Dame Miriam Rothschild (passionate about getting wildflowers on motorway verges and attracting butterflies). War hero General Oliver Leese (a bonsai and cacti grower, RHS Chelsea Flower Show 1984, Peak District, Yorkshire Dales, Kent apple Orchards, Wind in the Willows Books (Mr Toad reference). Wye College Agricultural and Horticulture Facility, Garden Organic, Sheffield Parks Department. Wildlife and Wetlands Trust created London Wetlands Centre, one of the most successful stories in Europe. English Nature, The Wildlife Trust and Wild Ken Hill, Norfolk featured on BBC SpringwatchPlant mentions: Cowslip, Crocus, Bolted Kale with flower buds, Daisies, Foxgloves, Grape hyacinths, Horse chestnut, Ivy, Michaelmas daisies, Runner beans, Silver Birch, and Saxifraga.Animal mentions: Blue Tits, Skylarks, Lapwings, Curlews, Robins, Swallows, Starlings, Swifts, Slugs, Caterpillars, Bats, Sparrow Hawks, Red Kites, Peregrine Falcons, Magpies, Foxes, Toads, Hedgehogs, Moths, Butterflies, Cabbage White Butterflies, Newts, Damsel flies, Wasps, Leatherjackets, and Woodcock.Product mentions: Bee hotels, Clay pots, Compost bins, Flexible Pond liners, and Nest boxes.Chris's garden with a large pond: Leyland Cypress, Holly, Yew, Crab Apple, Native Honeysuckle, Bird Cherry (Prunus padus), Rosa banksia, Pink Campion, Lily of the Valley, Meadow Cranesbill / non-native Geraniums, Pulmonaria (lungwort) and Wayfaring tree.Desert island must-haves: Hand lens / Macro lens binoculars and Secateurs.Media highlights: Pebble Mill at One (1989 - 92), Rich Habitat Garden created for Gardeners' World with Peter Seabrook. Blue Tits and Bumblebees (1985) one 40-minute programme, The Wildside of Town, and Countryfile one of the original presenters from 1989 - 92.The Thames Estuary Partnership: The Living Thames film won the 2019 UK Charity Film Award and has won prizes and awards on four continents. It has an introduction by Sir David Attenborough and is available worldwide through Amazon. Chris is currently working on the sequel, The Historic Thames, which is scheduled for autumn release.Chris's books: The Wild Side of Town, The RHS Companion to Wildlife Gardening (originally titled How to Make a Wildlife Garden), and A Guide to Habitat Creation.Our thanks to Chiltern Music Therapy for supplying the music. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our Senior Japan Economics Advisor discusses Japan's systematic approach to AI and the lessons it offers for other markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo. Today I'd like to discuss Japan's crucial contributions in global AI development.It's Tuesday, June 17, at 2 PM in Tokyo.Japan has always been a world leader in advanced technology infrastructure and robotics. So it comes as no surprise that Japanese devices and materials play critical roles in the global AI supply chain. For investors, however, it's vital to understand Japan's unique systematic approach to AI and the lessons it offers other countries. In Japan, AI has historically developed through this symbiotic interaction of four elements: Hardware, Software, Data, and Ethics. Japanese technology advances not only evolve, but they co-evolve – meaning that advances in one element make advances in others more urgent. And when those latter advances occur, chokepoints arise in yet other elements. However, unlike co-evolution in nature, where chance mutations just happen to reinforce each other, co-evolution in AI is driven by human intent. That is, humans see a chokepoint and address it with innovation. These chokepoints – or bottlenecks in development – they're crucial to the way we think about AI. Identifying the chokepoints allows firms and industries to innovate. And Investors should also pay particular attention to these chokepoints because that's where the investment opportunities are. For example, at a recent event, we asked a medium-sized Japanese retail food manufacturing company president – who is an energetic AI advocate – which factor was the biggest chokepoint for his firm. And he replied unequivocally, immediately, “Data.” His firm has some data; so do his competitors. But there is no common protocol for recording the data, contributing information to a common database, and still maintaining anonymity. So clearly, the chokepoint around Data suggests that this company will need innovative data solutions so that it can then take advantage of the other three key elements: the Hardware, the Software, and the Ethics. Ethics is crucial because people won't use AI unless there is an ethical basis. So in terms of this element – the ethics element – Japan's commitment to ethical AI development has been very flexible. On one hand, Japan has robust legal frameworks, like the Act for the Protection of Personal Information and subsequent amendments. These laws ensure that AI advances within a secure and ethical boundary. And the laws are not just on paper. They are actively enforced. A few years ago there was a landmark court ruling that upheld data privacy against unauthorized AI use. However, Japan also is flexible. The data rules are tweaked, to allow more practical approach to developing large language models. Another unique part of Japan's approach to ethics is the proactive emphasis on AI literacy. From corporate giants to small businesses, there is a concerted effort to train personnel not just in the AI technology but also in the ethical application, and thus ensure this well-rounded acceptable advancement in AI capability. This approach to training workers is not just altruism; Japan faces a severe labor shortage, and AI is widely viewed as a critical part of the solution. So good ethics are bringing faster AI diffusion. Ultimately, on a global macroeconomic level, the winners from AI will be the corporations and the nations that do three things: First quickly introduce the technology; second, rapidly innovate new products and processes that use AI; and third, retrain labor and reallocate capital to produce these new and innovative products. With this macro backdrop, Japan's intentional use of the symbiosis between Hardware, Software, Data, and Ethics gives Japan some unique advantages in accelerating AI diffusion and spurring economic growth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

US stocks rebounded sharply on Monday as jitters over a widening in the Israel-Iran hostilities started to retreat amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict.~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBNUse Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!00:00 Intro00:18 Sponsor: Tangem00:54 What to watch this week02:05 Iran de-escalation?03:30 CNBC: Markets don't really follow geopolitics05:40 CNBC: Escalation should be priced in07:07 US vs foreign investors08:18 FOMC Wednesday09:10 Trueflation09:44 CNBC: G7 leaders meet in Canada over Trump Tariffs11:04 Trump Apple tariff11:18 Trump Mobile vs Solana12:16 Trump BTC & ETH ETF13:27 $SBET15:30 Outro#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum~Macro Turmoil Over?

While market sentiment on U.S. large caps turns cautious, our Chief CIO and U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why there's still room to stay constructive.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing why we remain more constructive than the consensus on large cap U.S. equities – and which sectors in particular. It's Monday, June 16th at 9:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. We remain more constructive on U.S. equities than the consensus mainly because key gauges we follow are pointing to a stronger earnings backdrop than others expect over the next 12 months. First, our main earnings model is showing high-single-digit Earnings Per Share growth over the next year. Second, earnings revision breadth is inflecting sharply higher from -25 percent in mid-April to -9 percent today. Third, we have a secondary Earnings Leading model that takes into account the cost side of the equation; and that one is forecasting mid-teens Earnings Per Share growth by the first half of 2026. More specifically, it's pointing to higher profitability due to cost efficiencies. Interestingly, this was something we heard frequently last week at the Morgan Stanley Financials Conference with many companies highlighting the adoption of Artificial Intelligence to help streamline operations. Finally, the most underappreciated tailwind for S&P 500 earnings remains the weaker dollar which is down 11 percent from the January highs. As a reminder, our currency strategists expect another 7 percent downside over the next 12 months. The combination of a stronger level of earnings revisions breadth and a robust rate of change on earnings revisions breadth since growth expectations troughed in mid-April is a powerful tailwind for many large cap stocks, with the strongest impact in the Capital Goods and Software industries. These industries have compelling structural growth drivers. For Capital Goods, it's tied to a renewed focus on global infrastructure spending. The rate of change on capacity utilization is in positive territory for the first time in two and a half years and aggregate commercial and industrial loans are growing again, reaching the highest level since 2020. The combination of structural tech diffusion and a global infrastructure focus in many countries is leading to a more capital intensive backdrop. Bonus depreciation in the U.S. should be another tailwind here – as it incentivizes a pickup in equipment investment, benefitting Capital Goods companies most directly. Meanwhile, Software is in a strong position to drive free cash flow via GenAI solutions from both a revenue and cost standpoint. Another sector we favor is large cap financials which could start to see meaningful benefits of de-regulation in the second half of the year. The main risk to our more constructive view remains long term interest rates. While Wednesday's below consensus consumer price report was helpful in terms of keeping yields contained, we find it interesting that rates did not fall on Friday with the rise in geopolitical tensions. As a result, the 10-year yield remains in close distance of our key 4.5 percent level, above which rate sensitivity should increase for stocks. On the positive side, interest rate volatility is well off its highs in April and closer to multi-year lows. Our long-standing Consumer Discretionary Goods underweight is based on tariff-related headwinds, weaker pricing power and a late cycle backdrop, which typically means underperformance of this sector. Staying underweight the group also provides a natural hedge should oil prices rise further amid rising tensions in the Middle East. We also continue to underweight small caps which are hurt the most from higher oil prices and sticky interest rates. These companies also suffer from a weaker dollar via higher costs and a limited currency translation benefit on the revenue side given their mostly domestic operations. Finally, the concern that comes up most frequently in our client discussions is high valuations. Our more sanguine view here is based on the fact that the rate of change on valuation is more important than the level. In our mid-year outlook, we showed that when Earnings Per Share growth is above the historical median of 7 percent, and the Fed Funds Rate is down on a year-over-year basis, the S&P 500's market multiple is up 90 percent of the time, regardless of the starting point. In fact, when these conditions are met, the S&P's forward P/E ratio has risen by 9 percent on average. Therefore, our forecast for the market multiple to stay near current levels of 21.5x could be viewed as conservative. Should history repeat and valuations rise 10 percent, our bull case for the S&P 500 over the next year becomes very achievable. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found this episode informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Andreas Steno, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news and trends driving global markets. From escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions and the Israel-Iran standoff to the latest twists in U.S.-China trade talks, they unpack how geopolitics is driving market volatility, shaping risk assets, and influencing macro positioning.

Join Crypto Is Macro now: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/ Tensions in the Middle East are rising, but markets are shrugging it off – and crypto is booming. Host Noelle Acheson is joined by Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and special guest Peter Tchir to break down what this means for Bitcoin, the Fed, and global stability. Will the Fed go more dovish? Is crypto now seen as a safe haven? We've got expert insights and bold predictions on today's Macro Monday. Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/noelleinmadrid Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 Peter Tchir: https://x.com/TFMkts ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Carsten Brzeski, the Global Head of Macro at ING Research, to discuss developments in the German economy following the recent federal elections - held in February 2025. Clay and Carsten begin with notable changes in the economy since the elections were held before analyzing the recent redefinition of Germany's debt brake, how this constitutional reform aligns with Germany's goals and priorities, how U.S.-imposed tariffs on the E.U. impact U.S.-German relations, the path for Germany to reclaim its historical role as one of Europe's leading economies and much more. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Send us a textPhotographing wildlife at night is tough, but there's a formula I've found that works incredibly well. It produces high quality, even low ISO, inspiring images of rarely seen animals we may encounter on wildlife photo adventures.In this episode I also go over the tools and specific camera settings, along with lessons and techniques from over 20 years on this topic for how to capture stunning nocturnal wildlife in their natural habitat.Sponsors & Promo Code:LensRentals.com - WildPhotographer15 for 15% offShimodaDesigns.com - Whelan10 for 10% offArthelper.Ai - WILD for 30 day free trial of Pro VersionTakeawaysNighttime wildlife photography is challenging due to low light.A good flashlight is essential for illuminating subjects. No flash--too harsh!Using a headlamp helps in adjusting camera settings in the dark.Spotting wildlife at night can be easier with a guide.Any camera can work, but DSLRs or mirrorless are preferred.Fast lenses are not always necessary for nighttime wildlife photography.Manual plus auto ISO is a great setting for low light.Underexposing the shot helps capture the essence of night.Editing can enhance the darkness around the subject.Macro photography can be done without a dedicated macro lens.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Night Wildlife Photography04:38 Essential Tools for Night Photography09:21 Camera and Lens Considerations12:12 Camera Settings for Low Light18:17 Techniques for Capturing Wildlife23:01 Editing Night Wildlife Photos26:55 Wild Card Tips for Night Photography Check out Court's photography and conservation work: CourtWhelan.com Follow Court Whelan (@courtwhelan) on YouTube for more photography tips Sign up for Court's conservation, travel and photography blog at www.courtwhelan.com View Court's recommended camera gear Promo Codes:LensRentals.com - WildPhotographer15 for 15% offShimodaDesigns.com - Whelan10 for 10% offArthelper.Ai - WILD for 30 day free trial of Pro Version

**On Tuesday evening, C. Derick Varn will join us AGAIN for Macro ‘n Chill, our weekly community gathering. While listening to this episode, we will have the opportunity to ask questions and engage in discussion about Part Two. June 17th, 8 pm ET/5 pm PT Click HERE to register The second half of Steve's conversation with Derick Varn goes into the history of the socialist movement from the 1960s to the present. Derick traces some of the current factionalism back to the ideological battles between Trotsky and Stalin covered in Part One of this series. This includes the debates on ‘socialism in one country' versus international socialism. He covers further divisions within Trotskyism, the Red Scare's successful suppression of the CPUSA, and the formation of the Black Panthers. He describes the rise of Maoism, its influence on student movements in the West, and further ideological splits. Steve and Derick emphasize that historical developments are always connected to the material conditions of their time. Even the Bernie Sanders movement. They talk of the struggles intrinsic to past and present socialist organizations and reflect on the modern implications of these ideologies and the challenges of organizing under current capitalist conditions. “In the ‘Eighteenth Brumaire,' Marx talks about how all great revolutions play-act a revolutionary moment of the past. So, for him... he talked about the English Civil War and the Bible, and the French Revolution, and the Roman Empire.  “We are stuck LARPing the past because we don't know what the future is.” C. Derick Varn is a poet, teacher, and political theorist. He is the host of Varn Vlog. He was a reader at Zer0 books from 2015 to 2021. He spent most of the 2010s outside the U.S. in the Republic of Korea, Mexico, and Egypt. He is the author of the poetry collections, Apocalyptics and Liberation and All the Bright Etcetera. https://varnblog.substack.com Find all his links at https://allmylinks.com/dionysuseatsyou

O time de análise política da XP traz no episódio desta semana as perspectivas para as discussões que envolvem o IOF no Congresso, diante das resistências de parlamentares com as recentes medidas apresentadas pela equipe econômica. De um lado, foi pautada na Câmara a urgência do PDL que visa sustar os efeitos do último decreto editado pelo governo, do outro, a Fazenda tenta aprovar a Medida Provisória com as propostas para aumentar a arrecadação e compensar as recentes calibragens no IOF. Além disso, nossos analistas também falam sobre os desafios do Planalto para recuperar a popularidade do presidente Lula, o que esbarra nos episódios envolvendo o INSS e nos novos programas que devem ser anunciados em breve pelo governo. Acompanhe o nosso conteúdo também no aplicativo XP Política e Macro, disponível nas lojas de aplicativos para IOS e Android.

And yet, the market remains close to all time highs. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger join Ricky Mulvey to discuss: - Macro uncertainty and market bullishness. - A record amount of unsold housing stock in the United States. - Chime's IPO. - Earnings from RH and Adobe. (19:11) Malcolm Ethridge, Managing Partner at Capital Area Planning Group and author of "Financial Independence Doesn't Happen by Accident". (35:00) Jason and Matt share two radar stocks: Chipotle and Whirlpool. Companies discussed: RDFN, CHYM, RH, ADBE, CMG, WHR Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger Engineer: Dan Boyd Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, "TMF") do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our economists Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin discuss how a drop in immigration is tightening labor markets, and what that means for the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Sam Coffin: And I'm Sam Coffin, Senior Economist on our U.S. Economics research team.Michael Gapen: Today we're going to have a discussion about the potential economic consequences of the administration's shift in immigration policies. In particular, we'll focus much of our attention on the influence that immigration reform is having on the U.S. labor market. And what it means for our outlook on Federal Reserve policy.It's Friday, June 13th at 9am in New York.So, Sam, news headlines have been dominated by developments in the President's immigration policies; what is being called by, at least some commentators, as a toughening in his stance.But I'd like to set the stage first with any new information that you think we've received on border encounters and interior removals. The administration has released new data on that recently that covered at least some of the activity earlier this year. What did it tell you? And did it differ markedly from your expectations?Sam Coffin: What we saw at first was border encounters falling sharply to 30,000 a month from 200,000 or 300,000 a month last year. It was perhaps a surprise that they fell that sharply. And on the flip side, interior removals turned out to be much more difficult than the administration had suggested. They'd been targeting maybe 500,000 per year in removals, 1500 a day. And we're hitting a third or a half of that pace.Michael Gapen: So maybe the recent escalation in ICE raids could be in response to this, right? The fact that interior removals have not been as large as some in the administration would desire.Sam Coffin: That's correct. And we think those efforts will continue. The House Budget Reconciliation Bill, for example, has about $155 billion more in the budget for ICE, a large increase over its current budget. This will likely mean greater efforts at interior removals. About half of it goes to stricter border enforcement. The other half goes to new agents and more operations. We'll see what the final bill looks like, but it would be about a five-fold increase in funding.Michael Gapen: Okay. So much fewer encounters, meaning fewer migrants entering the U.S., and stepped-up enforcement on interior removals. So, I guess, shifting gears on the back of that data. Two important visa programs have also been in the news. One is the so-called CHNV Parole Program that's allowed Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to enter the U.S. on parole. The Supreme Court recently ruled that the administration could proceed with removing their immigration status.We also have immigrants on TPS, or Temporary Protected Status, which is subject to periodic removal; if the administration determines that the circumstances that warranted their immigration into the U.S. are no longer present. So, these would be immigrants coming to the U.S. in response to war, conflict, environmental disasters, hurricanes, so forth.So, Sam, how do you think about the ramping up of immigration controls in these areas? Is the end of these temporary programs important? How many immigrants are on them? And what would the cancellation of these mean in terms of your outlook for immigration?Sam Coffin: Yeah, for CHNV Paroles, there are about 500,000 people paroled into the U.S. The Supreme Court ruled that the administration can cancel those paroles. We expect now that those 500,000 are probably removed from the country over the next six months or so. And the temporary protected status; similarly, there are about 800,000 people on temporary protected status. About 600,000 of them have their temporary status revoked at this point or at least revoked sometime soon. And it looks like we'll get a couple hundred thousand in deportations out from that program this year and the rest next year.The result is net immigration probably falling to 300,000 people this year. We'd expected about a million, when we came into this year, but the faster pace of deportation takes that down. So, 300,000 this year and 300,000 next year, between the reduction in border encounters and the increase in deportations.Michael Gapen: So that's a big shift from what we thought coming into the year. What does that mean for population growth and growth in the labor force? And how would this compare – just put it in context from where we were coming out of the pandemic when immigration inflows were quite large.Sam Coffin: Yeah. Population growth before the pandemic was running 0.5 to 0.75 percent per year. With the large increase in immigration, it accelerated 1-1.25 percent during the years of the fastest immigration. At this point, it falls by about a point to 0.3-0.4 percent population growth over the next couple of years.Michael Gapen: So almost flat growth in the labor force, right? So, translate that into what economists would call a break-even employment rate. How much employment do you need to push the unemployment rate down or push the unemployment rate up?Sam Coffin: Yeah, so last year – I mean, we have the experience of last year. And last year about 200,000 a month in payroll growth was consistent with a flat unemployment rate. So far this year, that's full on to 160,000-170,000 a month, consistent with a flat unemployment rate. With further reduction in labor force growth, it would probably decline to about 70,000 a month. So much slower payrolls to hold the unemployment rate flat.Michael Gapen: So, as you know, we've taken the view, Sam, that immigration controls and restrictions will mean a few important things for the economy, right? One is fewer consuming households and softening demand, but the foreign-born worker has a much higher participation rate than domestic workers; about 4 to 5 percentage points higher.So, a lot less labor force growth, as you mentioned. How have these developments changed your view on exactly how hard it's going to be to push the unemployment rate higher?Sam Coffin: So, so far this year, payrolls have averaged about 140,000 a month, and the unemployment rate's been going sideways at 4.2 percent. It's been going sideways since – for about nine months now, in fact. We do expect that payroll growth slows over the course of this year, along with the slowing in domestic demand. We have payroll growth falling around 50,000 a month by late in the year; but the unemployment rate going sideways, 4.3 percent this year because of that decline in breakeven payrolls.For next year, we also have weak payroll growth. We also expect weak payroll growth of about 50,000 a month. But the unemployment rate rising somewhat more to 4.8 percent by the end of the year.Michael Gapen: So, immigration controls really mean the unemployment rate will rise, but less than you might expect and later than you might expect, right? So that's I guess what we would classify as the cyclical effect of immigration.But we also think immigration controls and a much slower growth in the labor force means downward pressure on potential. Where are we right now in terms of potential growth and where's that vis-a-vis where we were? And if these immigration controls go into place, where do we think potential growth is going?Sam Coffin: Well, GDP potential is measured as the sum of productivity growth and growth in trend hours worked. The slower immigration means slower labor force growth and less capacity for hours. We estimated potential growth between 2.5 and 3 percent growth in 2022 to 2024. But we have it falling to 2.0 percent presently – or back to where it was before COVID. If we're right on immigration going forward and we see those faster deportations and the continued stoppage at the border, it could mean potential growth of only 1.5 percent next year.Michael Gapen: That's a big change, of course, from where the economy was just, you know, 12 to 18 months ago. And I'd like to circle back to one point that you made in bringing up the recent employment numbers. In the May job report that was released last week, we also saw a decline in labor force participation. It went down two-tenths on the month.Now, on one hand that may have prevented a rise in the unemployment rate. It was 4.2 but could have been maybe 4.5 percent or so – had the participation rate held constant. So maybe the labor market weakened, and we just don't know it yet. But you have an idea that you've put forward in some of our reports that there might be another explanation behind the drop in the participation rate. What is that?Sam Coffin: It could be that the threat of increased deportations has created a chilling effect on the participation rate of undocumented workers.Michael Gapen: So, explain to listeners what we mean by a chilling effect in participation, right? We're not talking about restricting inflows or actual deportations. What are we referring to?Sam Coffin: Perhaps undocumented workers step out of the workforce temporarily to avoid detection, similar to how people stayed out of the workforce during the pandemic because of fear of infection or need to take care of children or parents. If this is the case, some of the foreign-born population may be stepping out of the labor force for a longer period of time.Michael Gapen: Right. Which would mean the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent is real and does not mask weakness in the labor market. So, whether it's less in migration, more interior removals, or a chilling effect on participation, then the labor market still stays tight.Sam Coffin: And this is why we think the Fed moves later but ultimately cuts more. It's a combination of tariffs and immigration.Michael Gapen: That's right. So, our baseline is that tariffs push inflation higher first, and so the Fed sees that. But if we're right on immigration and your forecast is that the unemployment rate finishes the year at 4.3, then the Fed just stays on hold. And it's not until the unemployment rate starts rising in 2026 that the Fed turns to cuts, right. So, we have cuts starting in March of next year. And the Fed cutting all the way down to 250 to 275.Well, I think altogether, Sam, this is what we know now. It's certainly a fluid situation. Headlines are changing rapidly, so our thoughts may evolve over time as the policy backdrop evolves. But Sam, thank you for speaking with me.Sam Coffin: Thank you very much.Michael Gapen: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Bitcoin drops after failing to break $110K — even amid strong macro signals.Ethereum pulls back alongside the rest of the market, retaining upward momentum.DOGE, SUI, ADA, LINK, TRX, and AVAX all see selling pressure after strong rallies.Crypto's total market cap drops by tens of billions — reflecting nervousness and a classic “sell the news” scenario.Trump sticks to his pro-Bitcoin, pro-mining platform as 2024 race heats up.ETH futures' open interest reaches a multi-month high — fueling liquidation worries.Some tokens (JUP, FET, SEI) drop much sharper — while a few outperform.Macro signals remain constructive (strong employment, growing industry investment), but sellers are currently in control.Analysts view weakness as a healthy correction after a strong rally — a shake-up before the next leg up.The mood is nervous — is this a temporary shake-up or something more sinister?

Al drie dagen in een week tijd staakt personeel van NS in verschillende delen van het land. De vakbonden zijn ontevreden over het in hun ogen magere loonbod dat NS doet bij cao-onderhandelingen, dus wordt er naar een uiterst machtsmiddel gegrepen. Macro-econoom Arnoud Boot merkt op dat de belangen binnen de vakbewegingen ‘niet bepaald parallel lopen met het landsbelang’. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

De Nederlandse staat is een belangrijke klant van Capgemini Nederland, maar blijft er nog werk over voor de IT-consultant nu de politiek de inhuur van extern personeel probeert terug te dringen? En duurzaamheid verdwijnt steeds meer naar de achtergrond bij de klanten van Capgemini. Blijft de IT-consultant ondanks de verminderde aandacht voor het onderwerp er toch op hameren bij de klant? Jeannine Peek, topvrouw van IT-consultant Capgemini Nederland is te gast in BNR Zakendoen. Macro met Mujagić/Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Ook altijd terug te vinden als je een aflevering gemist hebt. Blik op de wereld Wat speelt zich vandaag af op het wereldtoneel? Het laatste nieuws uit bijvoorbeeld Oekraïne, het Midden-Oosten, de Verenigde Staten of Brussel hoor je iedere werkdag om 12.10 van onze vaste experts en eigen redacteuren en verslaggevers. Ook los te vinden als podcast. Ondernemerspanel Ondernemers gaven massaal een te hoog omzetverlies aan om coronasteun te krijgen. En: Zijn ondernemers niet proactief geweest in de voorbereiding op de zero-emissiezoneregels? Dat en meer bespreken we om 11.30 in het ondernemerspanel met: Marlies Mohr, ondernemer en communicatie-expert in de retail en Eduard Schaepman, serie-ondernemer. Ondernemerspanel Pitch Elke vrijdag is het weer tijd voor jonge ondernemingen om zichzelf op de kaart te zetten. Dat doen zij via een pitch en het doorstaan van een vragenvuur. Vandaag is het de beurt aan: Jeannette den Boer van Highlights of Holland, en Jesper Jacobs van GOase Suncharging Beau Anne Chilla, partner bij ForwardOne. zal de startups beoordelen en van advies voorzien. Deze jonge ondernemers zijn ook terug te luisteren als podcast. Zakenlunch Elke dag, tijdens de lunch, geniet je mee van het laatste zakelijke nieuws, actuele informatie over de financiële markten en ander economische actualiteiten. Op een ontspannen manier word je als luisteraar bijgepraat over alles wat er speelt in de wereld van het bedrijfsleven en de beurs. En altijd terug te vinden als podcast, mocht je de lunch gemist hebben. Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, considers whether tariff uncertainties are starting to feed through into the latest economic data.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/hktsWLPStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

On today's Macrodosing, Arian is in Chicago and we get into the life of Harry Houdini — the world's most famous escape artist. From death-defying stunts to exposing fake psychics, Houdini lived a life of mystery, danger, and obsession. We break down his craziest escapes, his war against spiritualism, and the weird theories surrounding his death. (00:02:57) Milwaukee Recap (00:41:55) Aaron Rodgers is married (00:44:51) USMNT (00:54:30) Machete attack in Florida (01:00:08) US Open (01:06:05) Houdini Download the Gametime app today and use code MACRO for $20 off your first purchase Use promo code MACRO on Amazon or https://stellabluecoffee.com for 20% off orders of $25 or moreYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/macrodosing

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They'll discuss Rory's view that the WTI forward curve has taken an unprecedented and bizarre shape, and much more. https://bit.ly/4jSlHOz  

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Aron Becker explain why European credit markets' performance for the rest of 2025 could be tied to U.S. growth. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Aron Becker: And I'm Aron Becker, Head of European Credit Strategy.Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, we're continuing a series of conversations covering the outlook for credit around the world. Morgan Stanley has recently updated its forecast for the next 12 months, and here we're going to bring you the latest views on what matters for European credit.It's Thursday, June 12th at 2pm in London.So, Aron, it's great to have this conversation with you. Today we're going to be talking about the European credit outlook. We talked with our colleague Vishwas in the other week about the U.S. credit outlook. But let's really dive into Europe and how that looks from the perspective of a credit investor.And maybe the place to start is, from your perspective, how do you see the economic backdrop in Europe, and what do you think that means for credit?Aron Becker: Right. So, on the European side, our growth expectations remain somewhat more challenging. Our economists are expecting growth after a fairly strong start to slow down in the back half of this year. The German fiscal package that was announced earlier this year will take time to lift growth further out in 2026. So, in the near term, we see a softening backdrop for the domestic economy.But I think what's important to emphasize here is that U.S. growth, as Vishwas and you have talked about last time around, is also set to decelerate on our economists forecast more meaningfully. And that matters for Europe.Two reasons why I think the U.S. growth outlook matters for European credit. One, nearly a quarter of European companies' revenues are generated in the U.S. And two, U.S. companies themselves have been very actively tapping the European corporate bond markets. And in fact, if you look at the outstanding notion of bonds in the euro benchmarks, the largest country by far is U.S. issuers. And so, I do think that we need to think about the outlook on the macro side, more in a global perspective, when we think about the outlook for European credit. And if we look at history, what we can deduct from the simple correlation between growth and credit spreads is current credit valuations imply growth would be around 3 percent. And that's a stark contrast to our economists' forecast where both Europe and U.S. is decelerating to below 1 percent over the next 12 months.Andrew Sheets: But Aron, you know, you talked about the slow growth, here in Europe. You talked about a slower growth picture in the U.S. You talked about, you know, pretty extensive exposure of European companies into the U.S. story. All of which sound like pretty challenging things. And yet, if one looks at your forecasts for credit spreads, we think they remain relatively tight, especially in investment grade.So, how does one square that? What's driving what might look like, kind of, a more optimistic forecast picture despite those macro challenges?Aron Becker: Right. That's a very important question. I think that it's not all about the growth, and there are a number of factors that I think can alleviate the pressures from the macro side. The first is that unlike in the U.S., in Europe we are expecting inflation to decelerate more meaningfully over the coming year. And we do think that the ECB and the Bank of England will continue to ease policy. That's good for the economy and the eventual rebound. And we also think that it's good for demand for credit products. For yield buyers where the cash alternative is getting less and less compelling, I think they will see yields on corporate credit much more attractive. And I do think that credit yields right now in Europe are actually quite attractive.Andrew Sheets: So, Aron, you know, another question I had is, if you think about some of those dynamics. The fact that interest rates are above where they've been over the last 10 years. You think about a growth environment in Europe, which is; it's not a recession, but growth is, kind of, 1 percent or a little bit below.I mean, some ways this is very similar to the dynamic we had last year. So, what do you think is similar and what do you think is different, in terms of how investors should think about, say, the next 12 months – versus where we've been?Aron Becker: Right. So, what's really similar is, for example, the yield, like I just mentioned. I think the yield is attractive. That hasn't really changed over the past 12 months. If you just think about credit as a carry product, you're still getting around between 3-3.5 percent on an IG corporate bond today.What's really different is that over the same period, the ECB has already lowered front-end rates by 200 basis points. And at the same time, if you think about the fiscal developments in Germany or broader rates dynamics, we've seen a sharp steepening of yield curves; and curves are actually at the steepest levels in two years now. And what this leaves us with is not only high carry from the yield on corporate bonds, but also investors are now rolling down on a much steeper curve if they buy bonds today, especially further out the curve.So, by our estimate, if you aggregate the two figures in terms of your expected total return, credit offers actually total returns much higher than over the past 12 months, and closer to where we were in the LDI crisis in 2022.Andrew Sheets: So, Aron, another development I wanted to ask you about is, if you look at our forecast for the year ahead, our global forecast. One theme is that on the government side there's projected to be a lot more borrowing. There's more borrowing in Germany, and then there's more borrowing in the U.S., especially under certain versions of the current budget proposals being debated. So, you know, it does seem like you have this contrast between more borrowing and kind of a worsening fiscal picture in governments, a better fiscal picture among corporates. We talk about the spread. The spread is the difference between that corporate and government borrowing.So, I guess looking forward first, do you think European companies are going to be borrowing more money? And certainly more money on a relative, incremental basis at these yield levels, which are higher than what they're used to in the past. And, secondly, how do you think about the relative valuation of European credit versus some of the sovereign issuers in Europe, which is often a debate that we'll have with investors?Aron Becker: Big picture? We have seen companies be very active in tapping the corporate bond markets this year. We had a record issuance in May in terms of supply. Now I would push back on the view that that's negative for investors, and expectations for spreads to widen as a result for a number of reasons. One is a lot of gross issuance tends to be good for investors who want to pick up some new issue premiums – as these new bonds do come a little bit cheap to what's out there in terms of available secondary bonds.And second, it creates a lot of liquidity for investors to actually deploy capital, when they do want to enter the bond market to invest. And what we really need to remember here is all this strong issuance activity is coming against very high maturing, volumes of bonds. Redemptions this year are rising by close to 20 percent versus last year. And so, even though we are projecting this year to be a record year for growth issuance from investment grade companies, we think net supply will be lower year-on-year as a result of those elevated, maturities.So overall, I think that's going to be a fairly positive technical backdrop. And as you alluded to it, that's a stark contrast to what the sovereign market is facing at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, on that net basis, on the amount that they're issuing relative to what they're paying back, that actually is probably looking lower than last year, on your numbers.Aron Becker: Exactly.Andrew Sheets: And finally, Aron, you know, so we've talked a bit about the market dynamics, we've talked about the economic backdrop, we've talked about the issuance backdrop. Where does this leave your thoughts for investors? What do you think looks, kind of, most attractive for those who are looking at the European credit space?Aron Becker: Opportunities are abound, but I think you need to be quite selective of where to actually increase your risk exposure, in my view. One part which we are quite out of consensus on here at Morgan Stanley is our recommendation in European credit to extend duration further out the curve.This goes back to the point I made earlier, that curves are very steep and a lot of that carry and roll down that I think look particularly attractive; you do need to extend duration for that. But there are a number of reasons why I think that that type of trade can work in this backdrop.For one, like I said, valuations are attractive. Two, I also think that from an issuer perspective, it is expensive to tap very long dated bonds now because of that yield dynamic, and I don't necessarily see a lot of supply coming through further out the curve. Three, our rates team do expect curves to bull steepen on the rate side and historically that has tended to favor excess returns further out the curve.And fourth is, a word we love to throw around – convexity. Cash prices further out the curve are very low in investment grade credit. That tends to be actually quite attractive because then even if you get the name wrong, for example, and there are some credit challenges down the line for some of these issuers, your loss given default may be more muted if you entered the bond at a lower cash price.Andrew Sheets: Aron, thanks for taking the time to talk.Aron Becker: Thanks, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And to our listeners, thank you for sharing a few minutes of your day with us. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen to this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, their discussion focuses on takeaways from recent data, evidence that the neutral fed funds rate is higher, and issues related to Jay Powell's successor as Fed chair. (Note: This podcast was recorded on June 11th after the release of the May CPI report.)

This week we're talking economics and finances of the world's game with professor, author and podcaster Kieran Maguire of University of Liverpool. (We apologize in advance for those who thought this show was about gridiron football, but with the Club World Cup beginning June 14, we thought it would be interesting to discuss football/soccer finance and some economic implications of the 2026 World Cup in North America.) Maguire joins Macro Matters podcast host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US rates strategist, and Business of Sports co-host and EM Lens host Damian Sassower, BI's chief emerging market fixed income strategist. The group discusses football club valuations, the economic benefits (or pitfalls) of hosting the World Cup, and how clubs used debt to finance player transfers and club operations. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

por Yaiza Santos Estos días de Santos Cerdán, Leires, Koldos y Ábalos, echa en falta ese animalito que tanto sacaban a pasear en aquellos días de la Gurtel o la Púnica: la responsabilidad in eligendo. ¡Una completa estupidez!, como otras veces ha dicho. Pero sí, es fascinante que hoy no tengan nada que reclamar al número 1 aquellos que pedían dimisiones, cuando la corrupción (presunta) acosa al número 2 y al número 3. Es obvia la patente de corso de la izquierda. Volvió a pedir el máximo cuidado a la hora de considerar los informes de la UCO, pero no pudo evitar preguntarse si Ábalos en camiseta no representa el fin de todo, como en su momento lo representó aquella putifina de Roldán y su visible vacuna. Cómo olvidar, por otra parte, que Ábalos presentó, con traje y corbata, la moción de censura en nombre de la limpieza y que Santos Cerdán fue el enviado a negociar la amnistía con los delincuentes nacionalistas, corrupción basal. También hizo hincapié en el número de cuenta en el que echar unos billetes para Ahmed Tommouhi (IBAN ES17-2100-9057-0002-0039-7561) y se congratuló de la respuesta ya perceptible a la iniciativa. Qué elocuente le parece la disputa entre Musk y Trump. Si el hombre más rico del mundo y el más poderoso llegan a estos niveles de vulgaridad, verdulería, casposidad y puerilidad, todo está permitido. Si tener la máxima riqueza y el máximo poder no protegen contra la imbecilidad, habrá que preguntarse qué protege contra ella. Y aún más: qué es la imbecilidad. Comentó un burning paper sobre las horas de sueño y el poder adquisitivo –resulta que la siesta es cosa de pobres– y, con delicia, el adelanto de las memorias de Bárbara Rey. ¡En efecto, Santos!, dijo, lo que quieren los hombres es que les hagan bien unas lentejas. Y fue así que Espada yiró. Bibliografía Braulio García Jaén, Justicia poética Arcadi Espada, Raval y Un buen tío Amelia Nierenberg, Leily Nikounazar, «‘Dog Walking Is a Clear Crime’: Iran’s Latest Morality Push», The New York Times Cristián Jara, Francisca Pérez y Rodrigo Wagner, «Sleep hours fall as income rises: Macro and micro evidence on sleep inequality around the world», Economics & Human Biology, septiembre de 2025 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas reads the fine print of U.S. tax legislation to understand how it might affect foreign companies operating in the U.S. and foreign investors holding U.S. debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today we're talking about a proposal tucked away in U.S. tax legislation that could impact investors in meaningful ways: Section 899.It's Wednesday, June 11th, at 12 pm in New York. So, Section 899 is basically a new rule that's part of a bigger bill that passed the House. It would give the U.S. Treasury the power to hit back with taxes on foreign companies if they think other countries are unfairly taxing U.S. businesses. And this rule could override existing tax agreements between countries, even applying to government funds and pension plans.The immediate concern is whether foreign holdings of U.S. bonds would be taxed – something that's not entirely clear in the draft language. Making the costs of ownership higher would affect holders of tens of trillions of U.S. securities. That includes about 25 percent of the U.S. corporate bond market. In short, the concern is that this would disincentivize ownership of U.S. bonds by overseas investors, creating extra costs or risk premium – meaning higher yields. The good news is that there's a decent chance the Senate will tweak or clarify Section 899. Consider the evidence that the motive of those who drafted this provision doesn't seem to have been to tax fixed income securities. If it was, you'd expect the official estimates of how much tax revenue this provision would generate to be far higher than what was scored by Congress. Public comments by Senators seem to mirror this, signaling changes are coming. But while that might mitigate one acute risk associated with 899, other risks could linger. If the provision were enacted, it acts as an extra cost on foreign multinationals investing in building businesses in the U.S. That means weaker demand for U.S. dollars overall. So while this is not at the core of our FX strategy team's thesis on why the dollar weakens further this year, it does reinforce the view. For European equities, our equity strategy team flags that Section 899 adds a whole new layer of worry on top of the tariff concerns everyone's been talking about. While people have been focused on European goods exports to the U.S., Section 899 could affect a much broader range of European companies doing business in America. The most vulnerable sectors include Business Services, Healthcare, Travel & Leisure, Media, and Software – basically, any European company with significant U.S. business.The bottom line, even if modified, if section 899 stays in the bill and is enacted, there's key ramifications for the U.S. dollar and European stocks. But pay careful attention in the coming days. The provision could be jettisoned from the Senate bill. It's still possible that it's too big of a law change to comply with the Senate's budget reconciliation procedure, and so would get thrown out for reasons of process, rather than politics. We'll be tracking it and keep you in the loop.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market please leave us a review. And tell your friends. We want everyone to listen.

In this episode of All the Credit®, we explore the catalysts of recent market turbulence and outline the challenges posed to fixed income investors. With a focus on key market drivers, we share insights into what the current economic landscape reveals about risk, opportunity, and evolving market dynamics. PGIM Fixed Income's Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Gregory Peters, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist. Recorded on May 29, 2025.  

Join Senior Vice President of Investment Research Andrew Korz and Investment Research Associate Alan Flanigan as they explore what the latest developments in tax reform, trade policy and fiscal policy mean for the U.S. fiscal outlook and economy. They dive into the latest edition of Mapping the markets and provide clarity on what it means for investors.Mapping the markets: Q2 2025 Is private credit a bubble?Private credit: Steady performance through market cyclesHave a question for our experts? Text us for a chance to have your questions answered on the next episode.To watch the video version, go to https://www.youtube.com/@FSInvestments For more research insights go to FSInvestments.com https://bit.ly/m/fsinvestments

Tony Zhang PhD, CFA, Blaine Reed CFA, AFM and Rich Excell CFA, CMT are back talking markets after a bit of a break. Do Blaine and Rich think global investors are sick of the US? With 10 year yield at 4.5%, will it hit 4.2% or 4.8% first?  What will the Fed do given the data we have seen?  Have a listen to find out

Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim discusses China's distinctly different approach to AI development and its investment implications.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley's Asia Technology Team. Today: a behind-the-scenes look at how China is reshaping the global AI landscape. It's Tuesday, June 10 at 2pm in Hong Kong. China has been quietly and methodically executing on its top-down strategy to establish its domestic AI capabilities ever since 2017. And while U.S. semiconductor restrictions have presented a near-term challenge, they have also forced China to achieve significant advancements in AI with less hardware. So rather than building the most powerful AI capabilities, China's primary focus has been on bringing AI to market with maximum efficiency. And you can see this with the recent launch of DeepSeek R1, and there are literally hundreds of AI start-ups using open-source Large Language Models to carve out niches and moats in this AI landscape. The key question is: What is the path forward? Can China sustain this momentum and translate its research prowess into global AI leadership? The answer hinges on four things: its energy, its data, talent, and computing. China's centralized government – with more than a billion mobile internet users – possess enormous amounts of data. China also has access to abundant energy: it built 10 nuclear power plants just last year, and there are ten more coming this year. U.S. chips are far better for the moment, but China is also advancing quickly; and getting a lot done without the best chips. Finally, China has plenty of talent – according to the World Economic Forum, 47 percent of the world's top AI researchers are now in China. Plus, there is already a comprehensive AI governance framework in place, with more than 250 regulatory standards ensuring that AI development remains secure, ethical, and strategically controlled. So, all in all, China is well on its way to realizing its ambitious goal of becoming a world leader in AI by 2030. And by that point, AI will be deeply embedded across all sectors of China's economy, supported by a regulatory environment. We believe the AI revolution will boost China's long-term potential GDP growth by addressing key structural headwinds to the economy, such as aging demographics and slowing productivity growth. We estimate that GenAI can create almost 7 trillion RMB in labor and productivity value. This equals almost 5 percent of China's GDP growth last year. And the investment implications of China's approach to AI cannot be overstated. It's clear that China has already established a solid AI foundation. And now meaningful opportunities are emerging not just for the big players, but also for smaller, mass-market businesses as well. And with value shifting from AI hardware to the AI application layer, we see China continuing its success in bringing out AI applications to market and transforming industries in very practical terms. As history shows, whoever adopts and diffuses a new technology the fastest wins – and is difficult to displace. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Are you struggling to achieve your big goals, feeling like your daily efforts aren't moving the needle? The problem might not be your ambition, but your approach to habits. In this episode of the Rich Mind Podcast, Randy Wilson and Greg Junge break down the powerful distinction between Macro Habits (your big-picture goals) and Micro Habits (the tiny, daily actions that guarantee your success). Discover how to deconstruct a large goal—like weight loss, financial freedom, or improved health—into simple, manageable micro habits. Learn why setting up your environment for success the night before, like preparing your water bottle, can create unstoppable momentum. Randy and Greg share their personal, real-life examples of applying this method, from tracking water intake and gamifying hydration to building a stretching routine and starting a strength training regimen from zero. This episode is packed with actionable strategies, including: Breaking down large macro goals into small, easy-to-implement micro habits. The importance of setting the bar low initially to build consistency and avoid overwhelm. How to gamify your habits and use accountability to stay motivated. The "domino effect" of positive micro habits on your overall well-being and productivity. Understanding that you won't always see immediate results and how to maintain discipline. If you're ready to move from feeling overwhelmed to feeling empowered, this conversation on micro and macro habits provides the blueprint for building consistent habits that actually stick and lead to massive long-term achievement. Mentioned in this episode: Macro habits, micro habits, goal achievement, discipline, consistency, motivation, gamifying habits, accountability, health habits, hydration, stretching, strength training, financial habits.

De-dollarization has increasingly become a substantive topic of discussion among corporate clients and market participants more broadly. We discuss de-dollarization related to changes in the structural demand for the dollar and its use as a reserve currency. This encompasses areas that relate to the longer-term use of the dollar, such as transactional dominance in FX volumes or commodities trade, denomination of liabilities or share in central bank FX reserves. J.P. Morgan clients can access the report "De-dollarization: Fact and fable" in the new Macro Corporate Spotlight series at jpmorganmarkets.com.    Speakers Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Meera Chandan - Co-Head of FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui - Head of EM Rates and FX Strategy Jay Barry - Head of Global Rates Research Greg Shearer - Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000511-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley's upcoming U.S. Financials conference.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry. It's Monday, June 9th at 10:30am in New York.Tomorrow Morgan Stanley kicks off its annual U.S. Financials Conference right here in New York City. We wanted to give you a glimpse into some of the most significant themes that we expect will be addressed at the conference. And so, I'm here with two of my colleagues, Manan Gosalia, U.S. Midcap Banks Analyst, and Ryan Kenny, U.S. Midcaps Advisor Analyst.Investors are grappling with navigating economic uncertainty from new tariff policies, inflation concerns, and immigration challenges – all of which impacts financial growth and credit quality. On the positive side, they are also looking closely at regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.Let's hear what our experts are expecting. Manan, ahead of the conference, what key themes do you expect mid-cap banks will highlight?Manan Gosalia: So, there are three key themes that we've been focused on for the mid-cap banks: loan growth, net interest margins, and capital. So, first on loan growth. Loan growth for the regional banks has been fairly tepid at about 2 to 3 percent year-on-year, and the tone from bank management teams has been fairly mixed in the April earning season that followed the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Some banks were starting to see the uncertainty weigh on corporate decision making and borrowing activity, while others were only seeing a slow down in some parts of their portfolio, with a pickup in other parts. Now that we've had two months to digest the announcements and several more positive developments on tariff negotiations, we expect that the tone from bank management teams will be more positive. Now, we don't expect them to say growth is accelerating, but we do expect that they will say loan growth is holding up with strong pipelines. On the second topic, net interest margins, we expect to hear that there is still room for margin expansion as we go through this year. And that's coming in two places, particularly as bank term deposits continue to reprice lower. And then the back book of fixed rate loans and securities, essentially assets that were put on the books four to five years ago when rates were a lot lower, are now rolling over at today's higher rates. Betsy Graseck: So, is the long end of the curve going up a good thing?Manan Gosalia: Yes, for net interest margins. But on the flip side, the tenure going up is slightly negative for bank capital. So that brings me to my third theme. The regional banks are overall in a much better place on capital than they were two years ago. Balance sheets have improved. Capital levels remain solid across the sector. But the recent increase in the long end of the curve is marginally negative for capital, given that there will be a higher negative mark on securities that banks hold. But we believe that higher capital levels that regional banks have accumulated over the past couple of years will help cushion some of these negative marks, and we don't expect the recent shift in the tenure will have a meaningful impact on bank capital plans.Betsy Graseck: So, the increase in the 10-year pulls down capital a little bit, but not enough to trip any regulatory minimums?Manan Gosalia: Correct.Betsy Graseck: So, all in the 10-year yield going up is a good thing?Manan Gosalia: It's slightly negative, but I would expect it does not impact bank growth plans. Betsy Graseck: Okay. All in, what's the message from mid-cap banks?Manan Gosalia: All in, I would expect the tone to be a little more positive than the banks had at April earnings.Betsy Graseck: Excellent. Thanks so much, Manan. Ryan, what about you? What are you expecting mid-cap advisors will say?Ryan Kenny: So, I think we'll hear a lot about the trends in M&A. And when we last heard from investment bank management teams during April earnings, the messaging was more cautious. We heard about M&A deals being paused as companies processed the Liberation Day tariffs, and a small number of deals being pulled. Tomorrow at our conference, expect to hear a measured but slightly improved tone. Look, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what's changed since April is the fact that the U.S. administration is flexing in response to markets. So that should help shore up more confidence needed to do deals, and there's tremendous pent-up demand for corporate activity. Over the last three years – so 2022 to 2024 – M&A volumes relative to nominal GDP have been running 30 to 40 percent below three-decade averages. Equity capital markets volumes 50 to 60 percent below average. There is tremendous need for private equity firms to exit their portfolio investments and deploy $4 trillion of dry powder that has accumulated and also structural themes for corporates – like the need for AI capabilities, energy and biotech consolidation and reshoring – that should fuel mergers as a cycle gets going.So, I think for this group, the message will likely be: April and May – more challenged from a deal flow perspective; but back up of the year, you should start to expect some improvement.Betsy Graseck: So slightly improved tone…Ryan Kenny: Slightly improved. And one of the other really interesting themes that the investment banks will talk about is the substantial growth of private capital advisory.So, this is advising private equity funds and owners on capital raising, liquidation, including secondary transactions and continuation funds. And what will be interesting is how the clients set here is growing. We've seen this quarter, major universities, some local governments that increasingly need liquidity and they're hiring investment banks to advise on selling private equity fund interests.It's really going to be a great discussion because private capital advisory is a major growth area for the boutique investment banks that I cover.Betsy Graseck: How big of a sleeve do you think this could become – as big as M&A outright?Ryan Kenny: Probably not as big as M&A outright, but significant. And it helps give the investment banks' relationships with financial sponsors who are active on the M&A front. So, it can be a share gain story.So, Betsy, what about you? You cover the large cap banks. What do you expect to hear?Betsy Graseck: Well, before I answer that, I do want to just put a pin on it.So, you're saying that for your coverage Ryan, we have some green shoots coming through...Ryan Kenny: Yeah, green shoots and more positive than in April.Betsy Graseck: And Manan on your side? Same?Manan Gosalia: A little bit more of a positive than April earnings, but more of the same as we heard at the start of the year.Betsy Graseck: Okay. Going back to the future then, I suppose we could say. Excellent. Well on large cap banks, I do expect large cap banks will be reflecting some of the same themes that you both just discussed. In particular, you know, we'll talk about IPOs. IPOs are holding up. We look at IPOs where we had 26 IPOs in the past week alone.That's up from 22 on average year-to-date in 2025. And I do think that the large cap banks will highlight that capital market activity is building and can accelerate from here, as long as equity volatility remains contained. By which we mean VIX is at 20 or below. And with capital market activity should come increased lending activity. It's very exciting. What's going on here is that when you do an M&A, you have to finance it, and that financing comes from either the bond market or banks or private credit. M&A financing is a key driver of CNI loan growth. A lot of people don't know that. And CNI loan growth, we do think will be moving from current levels of about 2 percent year-on-year, as per the most recent Fed H.8 data to 5 percent as M&A comes through over the next year plus. And then the other major driver of CNI loans is loans to non-depository financial institutions, which is also known as NDFI Loans. NDFI loans have been getting a lot of press recently. We see this as much ado about reclassification. That said, investors are asking what is the risk of this book of business? Our view is that it's similar to overall CNI loan risk, and we will dig into that outlook with managements at the conference. It'll be exciting. Additionally, we will touch on regulation and how easing of regulation could change strategies for capital utilization and capital deployment. So, you want to have an ear out for that. Well, Manan, Ryan, it's been great speaking with you today.Manan Gosalia: Should be an exciting conference.Ryan Kenny: Thanks for having us on.Betsy Graseck: And thanks for listening everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

 Peter Conti-Brown is a historian and legal scholar of the Federal Reserve System, and an associate professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Sean Vanatta is a senior lecturer in financial history and policy at the University of Glasgow. Peter and Sean join the show to discuss their new book titled: Private Finance, Public Power: A History of Bank Supervision in America, as well as how powerlifting can be analogized in macroeconomics, and the implications of Trump v. Wilcox. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:02 - Powerlifting 00:06:17 - Trump v. Wilcox 00:12:27 - Private Finance, Public Power 00:15:18 - Supervision vs. Regulation 00:22:52 - Banking in the Early Republic 00:36:10 - Consolidation of Regulators 00:41:06 - Focus of the Fed 00:45:00 - The Great Depression 00:56:10 - When to Let a Bank Fail 01:02:47 - Outro

Everyone's buying Bitcoin – Metaplanet is raising $5.4B, Saylor just added $110M, and Circle's IPO is on fire. So why is Bitcoin still stuck? Noelle Acheson, Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish dig into market sentiment, looming macro risks, and whether inflation data or the U.S. debt spiral will finally move the needle. Join Crypto Is Macro now: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/ Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/noelleinmadrid Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY!

Kristin Kay of Manhattan Associates talks about their Active TMS, continuous innovation & automated testing, & why transportation is more complex than ever. IN THIS EPISODE WE DISCUSS:   [04.20] An introduction to Kristin, and Manhattan Associates. “We don't view supply chain as a cost center – it can be a competitive advantage, if you start to remove some of the siloes between your solutions.” [06.18] The biggest impacts on the transportation industry right now, and why the industry is more complex than ever before. “It's a whirlwind! We have a lot of different things coming into play. Macro economic shifts, sky high customer expectations, pressure to hit sustainability targets… Depending on the industry, the days of just managing your transportation are gone.” [09.17] Why Transportation Management Systems often come with their own set of problems, and the biggest TMS challenges Manhattan see with their customers. “Whatever challenge comes up, sometimes that challenge isn't the biggest problem. The problem is how inflexible either your systems or operations are. If they're inflexible, you don't have options.” “The burden of maintaining integrations between all of these systems takes a lot of time. We find that teams are spending more time managing their systems and TMS than managing their freight. And that can be a red flag wherever you have volatility.” “As things change, your pendulum swings between ‘I really need to save money' to ‘I really need to give service to customers'… But there is an answer between speed and cost, and we need to be able to react to that.” [12.58] What connectivity and integration speed and ease looks like with Manhattan's Active TMS, and the impact on key focus areas like visibility, collaboration and flexibility. “Transportation is a team sport… And that connectivity is the heartbeat of agility.” “If you're going to do any software implementation, decide: ‘What are my key KPIs, how do I know what's right, how do I build that confidence?' So that when I turn that switch on, I'm getting those benefits – not just creating more questions.” [16.57] Manual versus automated testing, how automated testing works with Manhattan, and the business benefits of continuous validation and accelerated deployments. [19.37] How automated testing can help to reduce risk and allow businesses to make informed, data-driven decisions in a climate filled with risk and unexpected disruption. [23.34] The importance of communication and transparency, the power of partnership, and how customer-driven enhancements make Manhattan's Active Transportation Management unique. “True innovation can't happen in isolation, it happens through partnership.” “It really comes down to the end user experience. If that's bad, it doesn't matter how good your integration is, or how great your reporting is, or how fast you can change. If people don't like using the product, you're going to have trouble.” [27.29] Why scalability means more than just scaling up or down, and how continuous innovation helps businesses with future-proofing, allowing them to stay ahead of the game without having to constantly overhaul systems. [32.24] What Manhattan's synchronization of operations and end-to-end unification mean for teams and businesses. [35.59] A case study exploring how Manhattan helped a grocery client shift their mindset, unify, embrace dynamic planning and unlock big benefits. [40.08] What we can expect from Manhattan in the second half of 2025.   RESOURCES AND LINKS MENTIONED:   Head over to Manhattan Associate's website now to find out more and discover how they could help you too. You can also connect with Manhattan and keep up to date with the latest over on LinkedIn, YouTube, Facebook and X (Twitter), or you can connect with Kristin on LinkedIn. If you enjoyed the episode and want to hear more from Manhattan, check out: 439: Breaking Down Silos: Discover The Power of Unified Supply Chain Planning, with Manhattan Associates 432: Discover the Future of Forecasting, with Manhattan Associates 430: Unify Your Supply Chain Systems, with Manhattan Associates

**This Tuesday evening, C. Derick Varn will join us for Macro ‘n Chill, our weekly community gathering. While listening to this episode, folks will have the opportunity to ask questions and engage in discussion. June 10th, 8 pm ET/5 pm PT Click HERE to register This episode is the first of a two-part discussion delving into historical splits within socialism. C. Derick Varn, the host of Varn Vlog, has an extensive background in philosophy, anthropology, and history. He takes us from the First and Second Internationals to the ideological divergences of Trotskyism and Stalinism. He also discusses the factions within Leninism, the impact of World War I on socialist strategies, and the emergence of Trotskyist and Marxist-Leninist thought. The episode navigates through key historical figures, including Lenin, Trotsky, and Stalin. Of course it wouldn't be Macro N Cheese without a look at Modern Monetary Theory and its place in a discussion of socialist theory. C. Derick Varn is a poet, teacher, and political theorist. He is the host of Varn Vlog. He was a reader at Zer0 books from 2015 to 2021. He spent most of the 2010s outside the U.S. in the Republic of Korea, Mexico, and Egypt. He is the author of the poetry collections, Apocalyptics and Liberation and All the Bright Etcetera. https://varnblog.substack.comFind all his links at https://allmylinks.com/dionysuseatsyou .

Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook defied the conventional view in a number of ways. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur push back on the pushback to their conclusions, explaining the thought process behind their research. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset StrategistVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Serena Tang: Today's topic, pushback to our outlook.It's Friday, June 6th at 10am in New York.Morgan Stanley Research published our mid-year outlook about two weeks ago, a collaborative effort across the department, bringing together our economist views with our strategist high conviction ideas. Right now, we're recommending investors to be overweight in U.S. equities, overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries, like U.S. IG corporate credit. But some of our views are out of consensus.So, I want to talk to you, Vishy, about pushback that you've been getting and how we pushback on the pushback.Vishy Tirupattur: Right. So, the biggest pushback I've gotten is a bit of a dissonance between our economics narrative and our markets narrative. Our economics narrative, as you know, calls for a significant weakening of economic growth. From about – for the U.S. – 2.5 percent growth in 2024 goes into 1 percent in 2025 and in 2026. And Fed doesn't cut rates in 2025, and cuts seven times in 2026.And if you look at a somewhat uninspiring outlook for the U.S. economy from our economists – reconciling an uninspiring economic outlook on the U.S. economy with the constructive view we have on U.S. assets, equities, credit, treasuries – that's been a source of contention. So, reconciling an uninspiring outlook on the U.S. economy with a constructive view on risk assets, as well as risk-free assets in the U.S. economy – so, equities, credit, as well as government bonds – has been a somewhat contentious issue.So how do we reconcile this? So, my pushback to the pushback is the following; that they are different plot lines across different asset classes. So, our economists have slowing of the economy – but not an outright recession. Our economists don't have rate cuts in 2025 but have seven rate cuts in 2026.So, if you look at the total number of rate cuts that are being priced in by the markets today, roughly about two rate cuts in [20]25, and about between two and three rate cuts in 2026, we expect greater policy easing than what's currently priced in the markets. So that makes sense for our constructive view on interest rates, and in government bonds and in duration that makes sense.From a credit point of view, we enter this point with a much better credit fundamentals in leverage and coverage terms. We have the emergence of a total yield-based buyer base, which we think will be largely intact at our expectations, and you layer on top of that – the idea that growth slows but doesn't fall into recession is also constructive for higher quality credit. So that explains our credit view.From an equities view, the drawdowns that we experienced in April, our equity strategists think marks the worst outcomes from a policy point of view that we could have had. That has already happened. So looking forward, they look for EPS growth over the course of the next 12 months. They look for benefits of deregulation to kick in. So, along with that seven rate cuts, get them to be comfortable in being constructive about their views on equities. So all of that ties together.Serena Tang: And I think what you mentioned around macro not being the markets is important here. Because when we did some analysis on historical periods where you had low growth and low inflation, actually in that kind of a scenario equities did fine. And corporate credit did fine. But also, in an environment where you have rather unencouraging growth, that tends to map onto a slightly risk-off scenario. And historically that's also a kind of backdrop where you see the dollar strengthen.This time out, we have a very out of consensus view; not that the dollar will weaken, that seems quite consensus. But the degree of magnitude of dollar weakening. Where have you been getting the most pushback on our expectations for the dollar to depreciate by around 9 percent from here?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the dollar weakness in itself is not out of consensus, largely driven by narrowing of free differentials; growth differentials. I think some of the difference between the extent of weakness that we are projecting comes from the assessment on the policy and certainty. So, the policy uncertainty adds a greater degree of risk premia for taking on U.S. assets.So, in our forecast, we take into account not only the differentials in rates and growth, but also in the policy uncertainty and the risk premia that the investors would demand in the face of that kind of policy uncertainty. And that really explains why we are probably more negative on the outcome for U.S. dollar than perhaps our competition.Serena Tang: The risk premium part, I think bring us to one of the biggest debates we've been having with investors over, not just the last few weeks, but over the last few months. And that is on U.S. exceptionalism. Now clearly, we have a view that U.S. assets can outperform over the next six to 12 months, but why aren't we factoring in higher risk premium for holding any kind of U.S. assets? Why should U.S. assets still do well?Vishy Tirupattur: So, as I said earlier, we are calling for the economy to slow without tipping into recession. We are also calling for greater amount of policy easing than what is currently priced in the markets. Both those factors are constructive.So, I think we also should keep in mind the sheer size of the U.S. markets. The U.S. government bond markets, for example, are 10 times the size of comparably rated European bond markets, government bond markets put together. The U.S. equity markets is four-five times the size of the European equity markets. Same thing for investment grade corporate credit bonds. The market is many, many times larger.So, the sheer size of the U.S. assets makes it very difficult for a globally diversified portfolio to substantially under-allocate to U.S. assets. So, what we are suggesting, therefore, is that allocate to U.S. assets, where there are all these opportunities we described. But if you are not a U.S. investor, hedge the currency risk. Not hedging currency risk had worked in the past, but we are now saying hedge your currency risk.Serena Tang: And the market size and liquidity point is interesting. I think after the outlook was published, we had a lot of questions on this. And I think it's underappreciated, how about, sort of, 60 percent of liquid, high quality fixed income paper is actually denominated in U.S. dollars. So, at the end of the day, or at least over the next six to 12 months, it does seem like there is no alternative.Now Vishy, we've talked a lot about where we are getting pushback. I think that one part of the outlook where – very little discussed because very highly consensus – is credit. And the consensus is credit is boring. So how do you see corporate credit, and maybe securitized credit, fit into the wider allocation views on fixed income?Vishy Tirupattur: Boring is good for a fixed income investor perspective, Serena. Our expectation of rate cuts, slowing growth but not going tipping into recession, and our idea that these spreads are really not going very far from where they are now, gets us to a total return of about over 10 percent for investment related corporate credit.And that actually is a pretty good outcome for credit investors. For fixed income investors in general that calls for continued allocations to high quality credit, in corporate credit as well as in securitized credit.Serena Tang: So just to sum up, Morgan Stanley Research has very differentiated view this time around on how many times the Fed can cut, which is a lot more than what markets are pricing in at the moment, how much yields can fall, and also how much weakening in the U.S. dollar that we can get. We are recommending investors to be overweight U.S. equities and overweight U.S. core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like U.S. IG corporate credits. And as much as we're not arguing [that] U.S. exceptionalism can continue on forever, over the next six to 12 months, we are constructive on U.S. assets.That is not to say policy uncertainty won't still create bouts of volatility over the next 12 months. But it does mean that during those scenarios, you want to sell U.S. dollars rather than U.S. assets.Vishy, thank you so much for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Great speaking with you, Serena.Serena Tang: And for those tuned in, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Vincent Deluard. They'll discuss why Vincent says recessions have been cancelled by monetary policy, and what he sees on the horizon for asset markets. https://bit.ly/43OuZVM

The global market for obesity drugs is expanding. Our U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst Terrence Flynn discusses what's driving the next stage of global growth for GLP-1 medicines.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Terrence Flynn: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Terrence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst. The market for obesity medicines is at an inflection point, and today I'll focus on what's driving the next stage of global growth.It's Thursday, June 5th at 2pm in New York.GLP-1 medicines have been viewed by many stakeholders as one of the most transformative medications in the market today. They've exploded in popularity over the last few years and become game changers for many people who take them. These drugs have large cap biopharma companies racing to innovate. They've had ripple effects on food, fitness, and fashion. They truly are a major market force. And now we're on the cusp of a significant broadening of use of these medicines.Currently the U.S. is the largest consumer in the world of GLP-1s. But new versions of these medicines suggest that this market will extend beyond the U.S. to significantly larger numbers of patients globally. On our estimate, the Total Addressable Market or TAM for obesity medications should reach $150 billion globally by 2035, with approximately [$]80 billion from the U.S. and [$]70 billion from international markets.Now this marks a meaningful increase from our 2024 forecast of [$]105 billion and reflects a greater appreciation of opportunities outside of the U.S. We think obesity drug adoption will likely accelerate as patients and providers become more familiar with the new products and as manufacturers address hurdles in production, distribution, and access.Current adoption rates of GLP-1 treatments within the eligible obesity population are about 2 to 3 percent. This is in the U.S., and roughly 1 percent in the rest of the world. Now, when we look out further, we anticipate these figures to surge to 20 percent and 10 percent respectively, really driven by five things.First, after a period of shortages, supply constraints have improved, and the drug makers are investing aggressively to increase production. Second new data show that obesity drugs have broader clinical applications. They can be used to treat coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, kidney disease, or even sleep apnea. They could also potentially fight Alzheimer's disease, neuropsychiatric conditions, and even cancer.Third, we think coverage will expand as obesity drugs are approved to treat diseases beyond obesity. Public healthcare coverage through Medicare should also broaden based on these expected approvals. Fourth, some drug makers are successfully developing obesity drugs, in pill form instead of injectables. Pills are of course easier to administer and can reach global scale quickly. And finally, drug makers are also developing next gen medications with even higher efficacy, new mechanisms of action, and more convenient, less frequent dosing.All in all, we think that over the next decade, broader GLP-1 adoption will extend well beyond biopharma. We expect significant impacts on medical technology, healthcare services, and consumer sectors like food, beverages, and fashion, where changes in patient diets could reshape market dynamics.Thanks so much for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Vishwas Patkar take stock of the U.S. credit market, noting which segments are on firm footing going into a period of slower growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts On the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program, we're going to have the first in a series of conversations covering our outlook for credit around the world.It's Wednesday, June 4th at 2pm in London.Vishwas Patkar: And 9am in New York.Andrew Sheets: Vishwas, along with many of our colleagues at Morgan Stanley, we recently updated our 12-month outlook for credit markets around the world. Focusing on your specialty, the U.S., how do you read the economic backdrop and what do you think it means for credit at a high level?Vishwas Patkar: So, our central scenario of slowing growth, somewhat firm inflation and no rate cuts from the Fed until the first quarter of 2026 – when I put all of that together, I view that as somewhat mixed for credit. It's good for certain segments of the market, not as good for others.I think the positive on the one side is that with the recent de-escalation in trade tensions, recession risks have gone lower. And that's reflected in our economists' view as well. I think for an asset class like credit, avoiding that drill downside tail I think is important. The other positive in the market today is that the level of all in yields you can get across the credit spectrum is very compelling on many different measures.The negative is that we are still looking at a fair bit of slowing in economic activity, and that's a big downshift from what we've been used to in the past few years. So, I would say we're certainly not in the Goldilocks environment that we saw for credit through the second half of last year. And it's important here for investors to be selective around what they invest in within the credit market.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishwas, you kind of alluded to this, but you know, 2025 has been a year that so far has been dominated by a lot of these large kind of macro questions around, you know, what's going to happen with tariffs. Big moves in interest rates, big moves in the U.S. dollar. But credit is an asset class that's, you know, ultimately about lending to companies. And so how do you see the credit worthiness of U.S. corporates? And how much of a risk is there that with interest rates staying higher for longer than we expected at the start of the year – that becomes a bigger problem?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, sure. I think it's a very important question Andrew because I think taking a call on markets based on the gyrations in headlines is very hard. But in some ways, I think this question of the credit worthiness of U.S. companies is more important and I think it really helps us filter the signal from the noise that we've seen in markets so far this year.I would say broadly, the health of corporate balance sheets is pretty good and, in some ways, I think it's maybe a more distinguishing feature of this cycle where corporate credit overall is on a firmer footing going into a period of slower growth – than what we may have seen in prior instances. And you can sort of look at this balance sheet health along a few different lines.In aggregate, we haven't really seen credit markets grow a lot in the last few years. M&A activity, which is usually a harbinger of corporate aggression, has also been fairly muted in absolute terms. Corporate balance sheet leverage has not grown. And I think we've been in this high-interest rate environment, which has kept some of these animal spirits at bay. Now what this means is, that the level of sensitivity of credit markets to a slow down in the economy is somewhat lower.It does not mean that credit markets can remain immune no matter what happens to the economy. I think it's clear if we get a recession, spread should be a fair bit wider. But I think in our central scenario, it makes us more confident than otherwise that credit overall can hold up okay.Now your question around the risk of rates staying higher. This I think goes back to my point about where in the credit market you're looking. I think up the quality spectrum, I think there are actually – there's a lot of demand tailwinds for credit given the pickup in sponsorship we've seen from insurance companies and pension funds in this cycle.At the other end of the quality spectrum, if you're looking at highly levered capital structures, that's where I think the risk of interest rates being high can lead to defaults being sort of around average levels and higher than they would otherwise be.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishwas, kind of sticking with that central scenario, kind of briefly, what would be a segment of U.S. credit that you think offers some of the best risk adjusted return at the moment? And what do you think offers some of the worst?Vishwas Patkar: Yep. So, we framed our credit outlook as being good for quality, badfor beta. So, as that suggests, I think this is a fairly good environment for investment grade credit. In our base case, we are calling for double digit total returns. In IG we also expect investment grade credit to modestly outperform government bonds.And I would sort of extend that to the upper tiers within the high yield market as well, specifically BBs. And where I would say risk reward looks the weakest is the lowest tier. So, for CCCs and for many segments within Bs where leverage is fairly elevated, debt costs are still high. We think this is still a challenging environment where growth is set to slow and rate cuts are still a fair bit out the outer forecast rise.Andrew Sheets: So far we focused on that central scenario, but let's close out with how things could be different. In our view, what do you think are the realistically better and worse scenarios for U.S. credit this year, and how does that shape your overall view on the market?Vishwas Patkar: So, I think the better scenario for credit versus our base case potentially revolve around tariffs being rolled back even further. And it's essentially a repeat of the second half of 2024, where you had a combination of good growth and declining inflation and rate cuts moving up versus our expectations.I think in that scenario, it's likely that you see investment grade credit spreads go back to the tights that we saw in December. On the flip side, I think the worst scenario really is you know – what if we are being too optimistic about growth? And what if the economy is set to slow much further? And then what if we get a recession?So, I think in that environment, we see spreads retesting the wides that we saw through the volatility in April. Although even here, I would draw an important nuance that because of some of the fundamental and technical tailwinds I discussed earlier, we think spreads even in this downside scenario may not test the types of levels that we've seen through prior bear markets.Andrew Sheets: Vishwas, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishwas Patkar: Thanks, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: And thanks for sharing a few minutes of your day with us. If you enjoy Thoughts of the Market, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and tell a friend or colleague about us today.