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The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what's driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect. What we cover Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook. Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical. Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid. Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values. Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn't off the table if current conditions persist. Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first. Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong. Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.” Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) datasets. Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey https://asc.illinois.edu/directory/gary-schnitkey/ National Land Realty https://www.nationalland.com
Gary Schnitkey is an agricultural economist with the University of Illinois. He talks more about the nitrogen supplies in the United States. NAFB News ServiceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey and Laura Gentry- PrecisionConservation.org - CornNRateCalc.org ★ Support this podcast ★
Markets with Aaron Edwards, Santos Springs; farm bill talk with Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois ACES
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey on the ARC-PLC Decision- Aaron Hager on 2, 4-D and Waterhemp- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai ★ Support this podcast ★
farmdoc Crop Ins. Recommendations- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois- Gov Grants Supporting Rural Grocery Stores- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc ★ Support this podcast ★
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey on Crop Insurance Decisions- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai ★ Support this podcast ★
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
Brownfield's Erin Anderson interviewed University of Illinois farm management specialist Gary Schnitkey at the 2025 Top Farmer Conference in West Lafayette, Indiana.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com- Don Day, DayWeather.com ★ Support this podcast ★
DeLoss reports from the Greater Peoria Farm Show. A market conversation with Sam Hudson, Cornbelt marketing. Then Eli Klockenga with Wyffels on planting for 2025. Wrap up with Dr. Gary Schnitkey talk crop budgets for 2025.
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey on 2025 Cash Rents- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com- Gary Schnitkey, crop insurance is just a PAYMENT for some- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey on 2025 Cash Rents- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
go.illinois.edu/ILSoyTailgateTalk- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Ag Economist- Nick Seiter, ILLINOIS Entomologist- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
- Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com- go.illinois.edu/ILSoyTailgateTalk ★ Support this podcast ★
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension Ag Economist- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc ★ Support this podcast ★
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Joe Janzen, ILLINOIS Extension- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
Market commentary from Sam Hudson, Cornbelt Marketing. Nick Frederking, AgriGold Agronomist with tips for spring planting and Dr. Gary Schnitkey on updates to the 2024 crop budgets.
What is going to happen in agricultural land values in 2024? Today, we've got somebody who can give you insight into the year ahead. Dr. Gary Schnitkey is a professor at the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences for Agricultural & Consumer Economics. He is also the Soybean Industry Chair in Agricultural Strategy. Dr. Schnitkey has a Ph.D., in Agricultural Economics, an M.S., in Agricultural Economics, B.S. in agricultural Finance. Dr Schnitkey is one of the United States premiere minds on agriculture economics, specifically in the Midwest. He has spent the last couple of decades educating farmers, ranchers, and academics on the economics of agriculture. As we find out in this episode, he has been speaking less lately, which makes this interview extra special. Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey Buy, Sell, Auction, or Lease Land
Gary Schnitkey of University of Illinois joins to discuss this year's outlook for triggered crop insurance premiums, and his outlook for 2024.
USDA Crop Production & WASDE- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Ed Usset, University of Minnesota ★ Support this podcast ★
- Wayne Nelson, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Don Day, DayWeather.com- Stephen Platt, ArcherFinancials.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com- Gary Schnitkey, #fddBrazil23 farmdoc in Brazil- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey & Joana Colussi, @farmdocDaily- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net ★ Support this podcast ★
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, farmdoc in Brazil #fddBrazil23- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Wayne Nelson, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, farmdoc in Brazil Day 08- Frayne Olson, NDSU - Short-Dated Options- Don Day, DayWeather.com- Stephan Platt, ArcherFinancials.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey & Joana Colussi #fddBrazil23- Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension ★ Support this podcast ★
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, @farmdoc in Brazil Day 02 #fddBrazil23- The I-55 Dust Storm Crash in her own Words- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc ★ Support this podcast ★
- USDA Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension ★ Support this podcast ★
REGISTER TODAY | $30go.illinois.edu/AllDayAgOutlook- Wayne Nelson, AgMarket.net- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension- Farm Bill Perspective from 1995- Don Day, DayWeather.com ★ Support this podcast ★
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com- Gary Schnitkey, Crop Budgets Webinar 9am Thurs- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc ★ Support this podcast ★
- Brain Splitt, AgMarket.net - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
In this episode, we will be talking with Dr. Gary Schnitkey of the University of Illinois, about land values in 2023 and what has been influencing those values. This is an incredibly valuable conversation and a level of insight that is hard to find anywhere else. Dr. Schnitkey is renowned far and wide for his knowledge, so this is a real privilege. Read more about Dr. Gary Schnitkey: Click Here To learn more about the buying and selling of land: Click Here
Bill Lapp of Advanced Economic Solutions is guest market analyst this afternoon plus we have a College Roadshow conversation with Dr. Gary Schnitkey of the University of Illinois.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Farmers checkoff dollars are put towards funding research to build better farm programs for Illinois corn growers. This week, University of Illinois ag economist Gary Schnitkey highlights research being done to improve crop insurance, farm programs and on-farm conservation and how farmers and organizations utilize the research to lobby for changes in DC.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Farm Management at the University of IL, joins us to provide his insight on the increasing costs of crop inputs and 2023 profitability.
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Mike Tannura, tstorm.net
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Mike Tannura, storm.net
- Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Bob Rhea, ILLINOIS FBFM
- Jacquie Voeks, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc - Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Wayne Nelson, L&M Commodities - USDA NASS Weekly Crop Progress - Don Day, DayWeather.com - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension
This morning we have a conversation with Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Farm Management and Soybean Industry Chair in Agricultural Strategy at the University of Illinois, about break evens and acreage decisions. Then it's The Farmer Forum with Randy Urmacher of Nebraska and Sherman Newlin of Illinois. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Mike Tannura, tstorm.net
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Mike Tannura, tstorm.net
- Jacquie Voeks, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Gary Schnitkey, ILLINOIS Extension - Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
Earlier this month University of Illinois farmdoc team ag economists held their annual Illinois Farm Economic Summit series. Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey put the supply chain into context.