Adam Chernoff started The Simple Handicap in 2017 to keep bettors up to the minute with the movements in the NFL betting market. The daily podcast is endorsed by some of the largest bettors and listened to each morning in more than 25 countries around the world.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/las-vegas-raiders-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. The Las Vegas Raiders were BIG overachievers in 2021 excelling in all the major categories that bettors love to look at as luck metrics. Point differential, one score games, second half combacks, schedule luck. Everything went the way of the Raiders in 2021. 2. There is A LOT of optimism about the Raiders offense in 2022. The addition of Adams gives the Raiders arguably the best receiver trio in the league between WR/SLOT/TE with Adams, Renfrow and Waller. Each are terrific route runners and great in space. 3. On paper, this looks ideal to pair with Derek Carr who is extremely accurate and consistent in his play. Annually he is one of the most overlooked QB's and now with top talent around him, everything is in place to succeed. 4. The only problem I see is that in spending to get Adams, they neglected the offensive line. Carr season after season has played with an elite OL blocking for him. This season will be the worst he has ever had, with just one starter grading above average at his position in 2021. 5. This is significant, because the splits for Carr when pressured vs kept clean turn him into a below average QB, rather than a top talent in the league. If all of the preseason love for this offense is fuelled by his past performance with a top OL, perhaps this team is over valued considering what he will have to do make do with this year. All that said, the Raiders defense will be terrible, and Las Vegas should find themselves in plenty of high scoring games this season against such a difficult schedule. A over team here in many ways, but not as clear cut as made out to be.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. Sean Payton is out, Dennis Allen is in. Overall going from an offensive minded coach to defensive minded coach is a stay away for me for any long term bets BUT, Carmichael stays on as the OC who has 13 years of continuity with the roster. I think that matters and makes this the exception. 2. There are also many positives to expect from the offense due to personnel alone. The Saints get Michael Thomas back, added Jarvis Landry and drafted speeder Chris Olvae. There is hopefully stability with Winston under center after the Saints started 4 QB's in 2021. 3. The trio of wide receivers will mesh well with Winstons willingness to push the ball down field. Annually he is among the top of the list in air yards per throw and loves to be aggressive. 4. The extra impact of this is teams needing to respect the deep ball and speed of wide receivers. This in turn will open up space for Alvin Kamara from the backfield, who was singled out all last season due to so many injuries. 5. The addition of Maye and Mathieu negates some key losses in the secondary, but this is a defense despite a difficult schedule I believe can play to league average which is enough to keep this team competitive all season. Bullish on the Saints. I think nine wins is the mark for them this season and I have bet them at +118 to make the playoffs.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. I love when a team makes the shift from a defensive minded head coach to an offensive minded head coach. The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 get a much needed change - and upgrade - from Zimmer to O'Connell 2. One thing that O'Connell has alreayd proven to bring over is an increased rate of three wide receiver sets which is going to mean more Jefferson - Thielen - Osborne on the field at the same time, which is exactly what this team needs. 3. Last season the Vikings passed a ton out of heavy personnel, but already in reports and interviews with Justin Jefferson and new HC O'Connell, the Vikings are going to be very different in 2022 and spread out opponents more with 3 WR sets. This will lead to better passing game success, and rushing. 4. In 2021, the Vikings finished 12th in offensive yards per play and 26th in defensive yards per play allowed. I think it is reasonable to think the Vikings improve on both marks with the coaching change. This is a bet on team. 5. I have bet Minnesota to win the NFC at 20/1, win the North at +240, Over 9.5 wins +105, Make playoffs at -118 and Jefferson OPY at 16/1.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. There is good reason to believe the Miami Dolphins improve on both offense and defense in 2022 - but whether or not it shows right away, is to be seen. 2. The replacement of Brian Flores - a defensive minded coach - with Mike McDaniel is a massive upgrade for this team. The San Francisco/Shanahan style of offense is going to go a long way in opening up this Dolphins offense. The hiring of the Chargers run game coordinator and tendencies of the SF playbook suggest a much higher run rate. 3. The staple of that offense is opening up receivers downfield in space. Tua for all he is criticized for, is extremely accurate. Now that he has receivers open in space, behind an above average offensive line, he is going to have a lot of success. 4. There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to the skill talent too. Hill, Wilson, Waddle, Gesicki, Williams. This offense is loaded! A strong backfield too. Everything points up here. 5. Where this gets interesting is the schedule difficulty goes up too, way up. Miami moves from the fourth easiest schedule last season, to eight most difficult this seaosn. A huge leap that is front loaded. Miami may end up still being under rated by the end of September. Lots of betting potential here.
TELEGRAM LINK: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/washington-commanders-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. Washington could be VERY different in 2022 which I am unsure the markets are fully accounting for. 2. Make no mistake about it, Carson Wentz has accuracy issues. This is not a secret. But, he is much more willing and able of pushing the ball downfield compared to the last 5-6 starting QB's Washington has had. With McLaurin, Dotson, Brown and Samuel, that could unlock this offense. 3. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner is sneaky underrated, and puts his guys in positions to succeed. The offensive line is solid, and the run game support will be there to make life easy for Wentz. 4. No team faces a bigger change in strength of schedule in 2022 than Washington. They go from the most difficult in 2021 to the 7th easiest projected schedule in 2022. This team will be better on both sides of the ball. 5. The kicker in all of this is ultimately Wentz. If he can play to the level of an average quarterback, the weapons are there for this team to do well. If he is Wentz of old, this team may struggle to win 7 games and he won't finish the season. It's really that simple. But as is, I just don't think the market is accounting for the offensive upside here.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-england-patriots-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. In March of this offseason, Jakob Johnson did an interview with a media network in his hometown of Stuggart, Germany. During the interview he said his position had been "eliminated" from the Patriots offense. 2. This is significant, because at fullback, he played more than 300 offensive snaps and the Patriots in total ran 23% of their offensive snaps with at least two running backs on the field. If the position is eliminated, where do those snaps go? 3. I believe that they will largely become passing snaps. New England still had a lot of success running out of 3 WR sets and the addition of Parker gives them a viable trio of wide receivers to rely on. 4. There are other signs to more passes and up tempo offense coming in 2022. Mac Jones went through an extreme weight loss and conditioning program, beat reporters have consistent spoke about how much quicker the offense looks on field, and McDaniels is out as the play caller. 5. While Belichick assumes responsibility for the play calling duties, Patricia will be inserted as the stand in OC. Considering the loss of JC Jackson and key pieces in the middle of the Patriots defense, they will be forced into more zone coverage than man, which will change the defensive look overall against a much more difficult schedule of quarterbacks. I think the Patriots score a ton of points in 2022 - while giving up just as many, or more. Their totals are too low, and this is a prime over team in the season ahead.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/detroit-lions-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. The price point for the Detroit Lions in 2022 is quite different from 2021. They move from 5 to 6.5 shaded towards 7 win total. An average spread of 8.1 to 3.3. Underdog in 17 games to 14. 2. In 2021, the Lions were two different teams playing from ahead and playing from behind. Of their 1,047 offensive snaps last season, just 17% saw the Lions leading while 60% saw them trailing by at least a FG. When trailing by 3+ points, the Lions offensive success rate was above average. When leading, they were among the worst in the NFL. All season long the Lions offense performed well when playing from behind, but seldom got out in front and built leads. 3. The big difference and turning point for the 2021 season was the mid year play caller change. Dan Campbell took over from Anthony Lynn and the team started to target 3 wide receivers at a much higher rate while abanonding targeting Swift out of the backfield like Lynn obsessed over the first half of the season to open up the offense. 4. With Swift likely to become a much more traditional runner in 2022 behind a strong offensive line, I believe the Lions will increase their pass rate and target more wide receivers as evidenced by signing Chark and drafting Williams 12th. 5. The secondary remains a huge issue for the Lions and one they neglected in the offseason only adding Mike Hughes to the fold. While I am bullish overall on the offense, defensively this team has many issues heading into the season.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-giants-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. I have made a number of bets on the Giants heading into 2022. They include, make the playoffs yes (+225), win the divison (+700), win 10+ games (+400) and Daboll COY (+1500). 2. This is a team that is priced similarly to last year, but has an upgrade at GM, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator and Defensive Coordinator. 3. Their strength of schedule shifts from second most difficult in 2021 to one of the ten easiest in 2022. Just those changes alone warrant a higher price point, but add in regression due to injury (QB, RB, and WR 1,2,3 missed a combined 30 games in 2021) and things point up for New York. 4. The biggest shift will be the play calling and offensive structure from Daboll. During his time in Buffalo he prioritized aggression early, building a lead, hitting explosive plays, smart QB designed runs and red zone execution, where his teams ranked among the best in the league each season. In comparison, this Giants offense ranked worst. 5. I think there is a lot of hidden talent on the Giants roster suppresed from years of poor coaching. I believe 2022 is the breakthrough while the rest of the division stays static or takes a step back.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. The Steelers defense is going to be absolutely LOADED. Not a surprise to say that either. Highest paid defense in the league, holes were filled in the offseason and Flores, a brilliant defensive mind, was added. Potential to be the best defense in football. 2. The Steelers offensive line is going to be absolutely HORRID. Not a surprise to say that either! Cheapest unit in the league, no holes were filled and likely to return four starters, but all of the returnees are among the worst at their position in 2021. 3. The key thing to watch with Pittsburgh is the pass/run rate. Removing Roethlisberger from the team removes the lid on the offense. He was restricted and lacked arm strength. Does Canada trust Trubisky or Pickett to throw down field often? 4. In my opinion, signs point to the Steelers RUNNING more and trusting Harris, while they figure out the situation at QB - if they ever do. While we may see more positive offensive scheme and tendencies (mainly play action), we likely see more run rate. 5. Depending how low the pass rate drops, the Steelers pricing within the market is set to shift early in the season. More passing, more deep shots, totals and receiver props, way too short. More running, defenses sell out upfront and take advantage of the OL, Steelers become a dead under team. Weeks 1, 2 and 3 will tell the story. Watch for it, and adjust.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/carolina-panthers-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. I think the Panthers defense is over rated. Their success last season came in the first two months of the season where they feasted on backup quarterbacks and rookies. 2. The five wins for Carolina in 2021 were all arguably a bit phoney. They beat Wilson in his first ever start, Mills in his first ever start, Jameis in his second start with New Orleans, Ryan the week after his leading WR abandoned the team and McCoy/Streveler combined for Arizona. 3. If the defense is inflated relative to last season, they are in a tight spot overall as the schedule in 2022 gets a lot more difficult as the Panthers swing from a well below average strength of schedule to above league average. 4. It is very likely Baker Mayfield starting as Ruhle coaches for his job this season, but where does the confidence come from under McAdoo at OC? This is going to be a run heavy team that will skew towards unders. 5. Unfortunately, the market has already shifted. Carolina has one of the lowest win totals in the league and is a favorite in just two games all season. Tough team to peg or bet on or against heading into 2022.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. The floor on the Jaguars in 2022 has been raised dramatically from 2021. The changes and roster creation in the offseason has compeltely changed the avergae outlook on this team...despite the market favoring them in just two games. 2. The toxic environment, lack of leadership and botched play calling of the Urban Meyer regieme set Trevor Lawrence and this Jaguars team up to fail from the start. To make matters worse, the RB/WR room in 2021 was the third most injured. 3. If we believe the Lawrence talent level is still the same as it was widely accepted to be coming out of college, the surrounding skill players, coaching change and offensive scheme adjustments should all benefit this team in a positive way. 4. Some previews may look at the roster construction strategy as a negative, but there is precedent for success from spending for Pederson, who burned the entire Eagles cap in the offseason leading up to the 2017-18 Super Bowl victory. If we trust Pederson and his talent judgement, the additions are almost all positive across the board. 5. The Jaguars in many ways are a play on or a buy team for me on a week to week basis in 2022. Better coaching, better skill position players, a QB in a much better spot to succeed and a much easier schedule of opponents on both sides of the ball.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-jets-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. Can 2021 be considered a throw away season? Rookie QB starting week 1, new coaching staff across the board and second most games lost to starters on injury? 2. Wilson was horrendous, finishing worse than 32nd in five major passing categories, and how poor he played remains a big talking point among betting previews. But how much was situation based? 3. Mike Lafleur is a SF/Shanahan coaching and passing game guy. His offenses are extremely structure based, where the QB is expected to work within the offense, and not out of it. Wilson had to become an entirely new QB, that went from relying on his athleticism, to relying on his reads and play knowledge, making quick, short throws. 4. On quick (sub league avg release times), short throws 5+ yards downfield, Wilson actually led the league in accuracy, and ranked 14th or better in success rate, YPA and EPA/att. NYJ built around that this offseason, drafting Wilson, adding big targets in Conklin/Uzomah, and keeping Carter/Moore. A lot more efficiency and balls in playmakers hands coming in 2022. 5. The Jets were last in every meaningful defensive metric last season, despite facing the 4th easiest schedule of opposing offenses. This season the schedule jumps up to average difficulty overall and above average for opposing QB's. But these 2021 numbers are misleading and the schedule will be much more difficult than projected. 6. Lamar, Burrow, Rodgers, Cousins, Allen x2 are all top 10 QB's. But NE x2 and MIA x2 are much improved offenses compared to 2021 and JAX/DET are each expected to take offensive leaps too. Outside of PIT, CHI and SEA, there are no easy outs for this league worst defense a year ago relying on rookies for a boost.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: Chicago Bears Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com) Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. Chicago takes on new coaches and coordinators across the board with Eberflus (HC), Getsy (OC) and Williams (DC) set to bring impactful change to this team from a betting stand point. 2. The part bettors should note most is the offensive coordinator role. Getsy comes from the McVay/Shanahan coaching tree, which utilize high run, play action and pre snap motion rates - all things that should help young quarterbacks. 3. The big issue is that the Bears did little to help Fields (second cheapest OL, third cheapest WR room) while on his rookie deal. Other teams in the league are finding success with rookie deal QB's adding expensive offensive pieces, this staff elected to build around Eberflus's preference, defense. 4. The biggest free agency aquisitions as well as the top draft picks were all used to bolster the defense which should go from a traditional aggressive Bears defense, to a passive, conservative Eberflus defense. 5. Reports from training camp suggest a Tennessee style offense, which has utilized one of the highest running rates in the league the past four seasons. It is a BIG difference between Henry and that OL to Montgomery and this OL. Fields likely put in bad situations with top reciever Robinson gone. There should be optimism for Fields, but instead there is a weak OL, a lack of weapons and a coaching staff that wants to run. His deep ball could be limited or neglected, and with how decent, yet, passive, this defense should be, everything about the Bears suggests they are a strong week to week under candidate entering 2022.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/houston-texans-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. The Texans second highest paid skill position player in 2022 is a fullback. Not sure much more needs to be said about roster consruction. 2. The optimism around Davis Mills for how he finished the season in 2021 is warranted, but the connection to Pep Hamilton and assumed success as Pep steps into the OC role may be a stretch too far. 3. The accolades are there! Pep coached Andrew Luck in college, took the job with Indianapolis when Luck was drafted and got to the AFC Championship, then coached Justin Herbert in his breakout rookie campaign. 4. But, I have bigger questions! If he was as great as listed, why was there a three year span recently out of the league? No NFL team wanted him. He ended up in the failed XFL experiment. For two decades he has been promoted, but ultimately fails. Is that going to be different under Lovie Smith? 5. The Texans will play a west coast style offense that supports short passes, and with the lack of WR depth, deep downfield passes are unlikely to be the norm. So where does that leave sports bettors? The market has adjusted down for the Texans in every market, and they are listed as underdogs in every game. 6. Value in backing Houston will be rare in 2022, as this team looks poised to have a peak of 5 wins.
Preview Start: (0:50) Jason Logan Seattle Atlanta Falcons: https://www.covers.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-season-betting-preview-2022 Circa Millions Contest: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) 1. This team is going to be awful. They lost Matt Ryan who was extremely stable at QB, they lost Ridley, their top wide receiver to playing DraftKings, and their second best WR Gage, to Tom Brady. 2. They have a young coach and play caller in Arthur Smith who is extremely conservative and ran the ball on early downs at a very high rate last season. He also shows few tendencies to want to be innovative on offense. 3. It is likely they commit to Marcus Mariota and not rookie QB Desmond Ridder from the draft. 4. This means Smith likely increases his run rate with Mariota's mobility, their best skill player (Patterson) working out of the backfield, and a poor pass blocking offensive line. 5. The defense, specifically the secondary, could be sneaky good and finish the season around 13-16th. No cornerback duo on a 2022 roster allowed fewer combined yards than AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward who start 1-2 for ATL this season. 6. The market knows this team is likely to be the worst in football. You won't find much value betting any of the season long props under. The market has adjusted to their week one matchup against the Saints which has the lowest total on the board at 41. But, you might find is opportunity to bet the team under frequently week to week the rest of the season. The Falcons secondary could limit the speed at which opponents blow them out, if they happen to have a lead, Smith likely gets conservative and if playing from behind, it is tough to trust Mariota and the lack of skill players to come back.
Preview Start: 5:20 Jason Logan Seattle Seahawks Preview: Seattle Seahawks Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com) Circa Millions Contest: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com) Is Drew Lock in 2022 on trajectory for Jameis Winston in 2019? Three seasons ago, Jameis Winston threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions enroute to the Buccaneers playing over their posted total in 12 of 16 games. The boom or bust play of Winston put points on the scoreboard - both ways - quickly, but he an Lock share similarities in their playing style. With an average posted total this season 10 points lower than the '19 Buccaneers, this could be intriguing for bettors. 1. In his last full season of play, Drew Lock had the third highest intended air yards in the league, combined one of the highest aggressive throw percentages. He is not scared to throw the ball down field when trailing - and Seattle will be trailing, often. 2. The only roster area Seattle ranks inside the top 7 as a consensus ranking is wide receiver. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dynamic downfield targets for Lock to throw at. The third option of Dee Eskridge with his speed is worth noting too. 3. The Seattle defense is likely to be one of the worst 5-6 units in the entire league with weaknesses up front (bottom 2-3) and in the secondary (bottom 3-4). This is not a team built to shut down opposing offenses, especially on short fields. 4. The combination of Lock's willingness to throw downfield to dynamic wide receivers and the defenses inability to get stops, should lead to lots of boom or bust throw attempts (explosive passes or INT's) which are condusive to points. 5. Considering Seattle is priced in projections as a low 40's total team (41-43) these are not numbers that are set to sustain a lot of variance and due to how low they are, could make the Seahawks a sneaky over team in 2022.
There is A LOT cooking in this episode. The first 14-15 minutes are discussing why people I know have had trouble this draft. The last 15-20 minutes I give out 13 different draft props to consider betting. I will be back later in May after a summer getaway. Until then, be sure to follow over at www.covers.com
It is always a fun afternoon when Dave Sharapan calls. Luckily we were able to record this one and turn it into a podcast. This was a ton of fun, and if you consume sports betting content, you will enjoy this one!
Eric Eager from PFF is one of the best minds in the NFL industry and is one of my favorite people for simplifying personnel. This is a call I had with him on March 16th to make sense of all the moves so far to put everything into context. Be sure to follow him @PFF_Eric.
Talking about my experience with fixed games in Colombia through Envigado FC and why the situation with Ridley and the NFL is no where near comparable to being "fixed" as Fox Sports analysts suggest. Also my comments on why this is a big victory for the regulated betting industry (it's working) but why active athlete deals create a double standard.
We are into the depths of the offseason now as we enter the month of March. Before the new league year begins on March 16th, I wanted to take one last look back at 2021 and talk about three areas I want to improve on for betting in 2022. Want to keep up with Covers YouTube content? Subscribe to our channel here: Covers Daily: Super Bowl Retro with Rob Pizzola - YouTube
Let the offseason content begin! Rob Pizzola of BetStamp joined me to recap the Super Bowl and discuss a whole lot of other topics in betting. A great free flowing conversation. Want to keep up with Covers YouTube content? Subscribe to our channel here: Covers Daily: Super Bowl Retro with Rob Pizzola - YouTube