Podcasts about unexpected points

Wharton's Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen and Adi Wyner speak with Kevin Cole, sports analyst with Unexpected Points, about the NFL draft, draft and trade strategy, the importance of mock drafts, and team investment strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kevin Cole, founder of Unexpected Points and former senior data scientist at PFF, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Does the draft matter in predicting the 2025 season? (1:54). Analytical draft grades based on surplus value (6:37). The asymmetry of a steal versus a reach (8:44). A team with a successful draft (11:28). A team with an awful draft (18:16). The interesting aspect of Shadeur Sanders (22:37). Detroit Lions (31:47). The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here: https://thepowerrank.com/ The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season is an audiobook with two deep dive, analytics for sports betting stories. Think John Oliver at Bet Bash. To check it out on Spotify, click here: https://open.spotify.com/show/7EJkoJXlF7LCiy5ekOt2c6

Matthew Coller is joined by Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points newsletter to discuss his analytics big board and what the Vikings should do in the draft.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Salk takes us through three of the biggest pleasant surprises for the Mariners so far this season. Then, Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points breaks down how he determines poistional value for the NFL draft and whether teams are applying these analytics or not.

Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation: What is Unexpected Points? Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections. How the Improvement Index Works Core concept: The Index projects a team's upcoming season based on the prior year's roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA. Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players. Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies. Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn't mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That's worth about 1.3 wins this year. Roster Modeling Nuance Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history. Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability. Coaching changes don't radically shift the projection unless it's a QB or team-level philosophy shift. Team-Level Highlights Patriots: The biggest gainers, with upside tied to improved depth and variance at QB. Diggs only ranks as their 5th most valuable addition. Bears: Interior OL upgrades (Jackson, Dolman) don't rate as highly, but the total picture (especially adding Joe Thuney) is strong. Panthers: Ranked 3rd in improvement. Key reason? They didn't lose much valuable talent, and the draft well based on surplus value. Browns: Gained ~5 points mostly from marginal improvements at QB (Pickett vs. projected backups). Still volatile due to QB uncertainty. Raiders: Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at QB, but the rest of the roster is roughly flat. Some natural regression expected after underperforming last year. 49ers: Losses overhyped due to player reputation rather than projected value. Comp picks help long-term roster strength. Jets: Show significant drop-off. Fields isn't rated as an upgrade over Rodgers, and they lost valuable supporting pieces like Davante Adams. Seahawks: Metcalf loss hurts more than Kupp helps. Darnold is a mid-tier projection (QB18–25 range), though he did flash top-5 efficiency last year. Eagles/Chiefs: Bottom tier in improvement, largely due to difficulty sustaining elite rosters. Kevin notes he had Ravens and Bills power-rated higher than the Chiefs pre-Super Bowl. Undervalued Teams? Colts: Slightly improved, with potential upside from Anthony Richardson or even Daniel Jones (yes, really). Browns: Again undervalued in the betting market due to lingering QB pessimism, despite a strong supporting cast. What's Next from Kevin? Expect more work pre-draft and post-draft: Updated Improvement Index “Analytical big board” using surplus draft value Post-draft evaluations factoring positional value, trade value, and reach vs. value metrics

Wharton's Cade Massey & Shane Jensen speak with Kevin Cole, former PFF data scientist, and creator of the Unexpected Points podcast, about evaluating college players, the value of the NFL combine, and what to expect from rookies in the coming NFL season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Before Friday, Phoenix Rising hadn't won two in a row all season, but Tomás Ángel's penalty was the difference for the hosts to pick up a critical three points against FC Tulsa. Now, facing a tougher foe on the road, can Diego Gomez's squad find a result against Kieran Phillips and Sacramento Republic? Join Owain Evans and Rees Goodall to discuss. 0:00 - Intro2:00 - Playoff hopes alive?5:00 - Should they play 2 up front?7:15 - Diego Gomez on availability11:20 - Any defensive adjustments?15:45 - Who will be the key player this weekend?20:00 - Looking at Sacramento31:00 - Rising CAN'T go down early32:00 - Score predictions34:50 - Standings update36:40 - Games to watch40:00 - HOT DOGS An ALLCITY Network Production SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtube ALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports   ALLCITY Network, Inc. aka PHNX and PHNX Sports is in no way affiliated with or endorsed by the City of Phoenix MERCH https://store.allcitynetwork.com/coll... PHNX Events: Get your tickets to PHNX events and takeovers here: https://gophnx.com/events/ bet365: https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-accou... Use the code PHNX365 to sign up, deposit $10 and choose your offer!Disclaimer: Must be 21+ and physically located in AZ.  If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP, text NEXTSTEP to 53342 or visit https://problemgambling.az.gov/  Sanderson Ford: The Sanderson Ford Summer Sales Event is here and they are teaming up with the boys of summer for a final Playoff Payoff Sale. You get the payoffs like deals on 24 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend. Lease one today for as low as $299 a month for 36 Months with only 10 percent cash down.  Valley Taproom: Visit either Valley Taproom location for a great bar food menu, wines, 30 rotating beer handles, meads, sours, ciders and more! Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.  Circle K:  Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you! Branded Bills: Use code PHNX at https://www.brandedbills.com/ for 20% off your first order! Check out FOCO merch and collectibles and use promo code “PHNX10” for 10% off your order on all non Pre Order items. Rugged Road: Gear up for your next adventure with Rugged Road Coolers - Your ultimate outdoor companion! Head to http://ruggedroadoutdoors.pxf.io/ALLCITY and use code PHNX for 10% off! When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Week 1 overreaction to young quarterbacks (1:40). Adjusted QB efficiency (6:04). Advanced review of Rams at Lions on Unexpected Points (10:38). Predictions, Rams at Cardinals in particular (15:32). Green Bay Packers and the Jordan Love adjustment (22:34). A surprise prediction for the 2024 season (27:27). The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season is an audiobook with two deep dive, analytics for sports betting stories. Think John Oliver with a math Ph.D. To check it out on Spotify, click here: https://open.spotify.com/show/7EJkoJXlF7LCiy5ekOt2c6 The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here: https://thepowerrank.com/

Draft for $1,500,000 on UnderDog Fantasy & Get A $250 Deposit Bonus With A FREE Pick 'Em Bonus Entry: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-davis-mattek Davis Mattek is joined by Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points to discuss what will be the biggest storyline of the 2024 NFL season, McShanny QBs, 49ers holdouts, feeling bad for Josh Allen and more. Sign up for premium fantasy football content and get exclusive Discord access: www.patreon.com/davismattek Subscribe to the AutoMattek Absolutes Newsletter: https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/ Download THE DRAFT CADDY: https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek Audio-Only Podcast Feed For All Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Streams: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Matthew Coller is joined by Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points to discuss how the Vikings can design their offense around rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matthew Coller is joined by Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points to discuss how the Vikings can design their offense around rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are tight ends like Brock Bowers overrated? (1:29). An NFL draft bet (4:10). The trajectory of JJ McCarthy (8:10). Arizona with the 4th pick (12:32). Another NFL draft bet based on wisdom of crowds (18:25). The quarterbacks at the 2nd, 3rd pick (24:00). Los Angeles Charger with the 5th pick (26:02). The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here: https://thepowerrank.com/

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Adjusted game scores and future predictions (3:45). Will Levis (10:24). How Buffalo at Cincinnati explains his metrics (13:20). Cleveland at Baltimore (20:00). Houston at Cincinnati (29:50). San Francisco at Jacksonville (39:20). Detroit at Los Angeles Chargers (43:02). The best team in the NFL (45:22). The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here: https://thepowerrank.com/

Kevin Cole, of Unexpected Points, joins OMF to break down this week's NFL slate and talk through his recent research on Bayesian QB Rankings.

Matthew Coller is joined by analytics expert Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points newsletter. He talks about his GOAT rankings for quarterbacks and discusses where Randall Cunningham, Fran Tarkenton, Daunte Culpepper and even Kirk Cousins land on his list -- plus, how he determines No. 1 ever. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matthew Coller is joined by analytics expert Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points newsletter. He talks about his GOAT rankings for quarterbacks and discusses where Randall Cunningham, Fran Tarkenton, Daunte Culpepper and even Kirk Cousins land on his list -- plus, how he determines No. 1 ever. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joins the podcast and discusses his recent research. We talk about the combine, evaluating draft prospects, and how teams spent their draft capital in 2023. https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/Get 20% OFF @manscaped + Free Shipping with the promo code SUMER at MANSCAPED.com!

Watch on YouTube and subscriber there to be part of the next livestream. Leave comments on this post you want answered next week.Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

This week Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points will join Aaron Quinn and Greg Tompsett to talk about the Buffalo Bills offseason, the AFC East race & the NFL Draft.0:00 Show Start4:00 Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points on his approach to measuring positional value9:20 New York Jets lead the 2023 Improvement Index16:50 Value of 2023 Buffalo Bills free agent additions19:26 Offensive line values: Why are guards valued lower than tackles?22:10 Should we be surprised or concerned by the Buffalo Bills' lack of additions at the offensive tackle position?25:20 Buffalo Bills 2023 draft steal/reach value vs. positional value28:27 Buffalo Bills 2023 draft surplus value35:15 Kevin Cole's favorite player from the Buffalo Bills' 2023 draft class36:40 The Buffalo Bills' biggest reaches of the 2023 NFL Draft37:39 Kevin Cole's overall thoughts about the Buffalo Bills' 2023 offseason44:47 Recapping and analyzing Kevin Cole's data on the Buffalo Bills53:36 Final thoughtsOne Pass Premium Membership - https://www.cover1.net/onepass/BetUS has live wagering on all major games, the best betting variety in the business, an easy deposit & withdrawal process & the Fastest Payouts in the Industry Our loyal Cover 1 fans get a choice between two exclusive offers, either a 125% sign-up bonus on your first deposit up to $2500 - http://bit.ly/BetUS_Cover1 or a free $50 bet with no deposit required - http://bit.ly/Cover1_50The theme song was written & performed by Handsome Jack http://www.handsomejackmusic.com/Cover 1 would love to hear your thoughts on this topic and the show in general. Comment below and let us what you think!—Don't miss out on our PREMIUM CONTENT-Access to detailed Premium Content.-Access to our video library.-Access to our private Slack channel.-Sneak peek at upcoming content.-Exclusive group film room sessions & much more.SIGN UP HERE: https://www.cover1.net/premium-content-plans/Thank you for watching this video, we can't do it without the support of our fans. If you have any ideas for content you'd like to see from us, comment below.—DOWNLOAD THE COVER 1 MOBILE APP!► Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.coverapp► iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1532587486► Subscribe to our YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClL6eJS1s8xmRoYRQbYgxQQ?sub_confirmation=1► Subscribe to our Cover 1 Network channel - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cover-1-sports/id1370162953—Cover 1 provides a multi-faceted analysis of the NFL and NFL Draft including Podcasts, Video blogs, Commentary, Scouting Reports, Highlights, and Video Breakdowns. NFL footage displayed is not owned by Cover 1.—Follow Us HereTwitter: https://twitter.com/Cover1Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/@Cover_1_Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Cover1NFL/Official Merchandise:https://teespring.com/en-GB/stores/cover-1The Cover1.net website and associated Social Media platforms are not endorsed by, directly affiliated with, maintained, authorized, or sponsored by the NFL or any of its clubs, specifically the Buffalo Bills. All products, marks, and company names are the registered trademarks of their original owners. The use of any trade name or trademark is for identification and reference purposes only and does not imply any association with the trademark holder of their product brand.#NFL #Bills #postgame #buffalobills #joshallen

This week Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points will join Aaron Quinn and Greg Tompsett to talk about the Buffalo Bills offseason, the AFC East race & the NFL Draft.0:00 Show Start4:00 Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points on his approach to measuring positional value9:20 New York Jets lead the 2023 Improvement Index16:50 Value of 2023 Buffalo Bills free agent additions19:26 Offensive line values: Why are guards valued lower than tackles?22:10 Should we be surprised or concerned by the Buffalo Bills' lack of additions at the offensive tackle position?25:20 Buffalo Bills 2023 draft steal/reach value vs. positional value28:27 Buffalo Bills 2023 draft surplus value35:15 Kevin Cole's favorite player from the Buffalo Bills' 2023 draft class36:40 The Buffalo Bills' biggest reaches of the 2023 NFL Draft37:39 Kevin Cole's overall thoughts about the Buffalo Bills' 2023 offseason44:47 Recapping and analyzing Kevin Cole's data on the Buffalo Bills53:36 Final thoughtsOne Pass Premium Membership - https://www.cover1.net/onepass/BetUS has live wagering on all major games, the best betting variety in the business, an easy deposit & withdrawal process & the Fastest Payouts in the Industry Our loyal Cover 1 fans get a choice between two exclusive offers, either a 125% sign-up bonus on your first deposit up to $2500 - http://bit.ly/BetUS_Cover1 or a free $50 bet with no deposit required - http://bit.ly/Cover1_50The theme song was written & performed by Handsome Jack http://www.handsomejackmusic.com/Cover 1 would love to hear your thoughts on this topic and the show in general. Comment below and let us what you think!—Don't miss out on our PREMIUM CONTENT-Access to detailed Premium Content.-Access to our video library.-Access to our private Slack channel.-Sneak peek at upcoming content.-Exclusive group film room sessions & much more.SIGN UP HERE: https://www.cover1.net/premium-content-plans/Thank you for watching this video, we can't do it without the support of our fans. If you have any ideas for content you'd like to see from us, comment below.—DOWNLOAD THE COVER 1 MOBILE APP!► Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.coverapp► iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1532587486► Subscribe to our YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClL6eJS1s8xmRoYRQbYgxQQ?sub_confirmation=1► Subscribe to our Cover 1 Network channel - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cover-1-sports/id1370162953—Cover 1 provides a multi-faceted analysis of the NFL and NFL Draft including Podcasts, Video blogs, Commentary, Scouting Reports, Highlights, and Video Breakdowns. NFL footage displayed is not owned by Cover 1.—Follow Us HereTwitter: https://twitter.com/Cover1Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/@Cover_1_Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Cover1NFL/Official Merchandise:https://teespring.com/en-GB/stores/cover-1The Cover1.net website and associated Social Media platforms are not endorsed by, directly affiliated with, maintained, authorized, or sponsored by the NFL or any of its clubs, specifically the Buffalo Bills. All products, marks, and company names are the registered trademarks of their original owners. The use of any trade name or trademark is for identification and reference purposes only and does not imply any association with the trademark holder of their product brand.#NFL #Bills #postgame #buffalobills #joshallen

Matthew Coller is joined by analytics expert Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, who talks about the process of judging a team's draft and discusses their supposed reaches in the middle rounds and the Vikings' best option at QB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matthew Coller is joined by analytics expert Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, who talks about the process of judging a team's draft and discusses their supposed reaches in the middle rounds and the Vikings' best option at QB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00). Why it's harder to build a team (11:32). Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56). Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50). Why Philadelphia traded up one pick (22:00). Philadelphia and consensus big boards vs actual draft position (26:25). The problem with Jalen Carter, and it's not the legal issues (32:16). The teams with the best grades by Kevin's objective methods (34:55). How Kevin rates this QB class (38:17). A Will Levis comp (40:45). The teams with the worst draft grades (43:43). Detroit, their surprising draft grade and the NFC North market (48:55). How much does the draft matter in predicting the 2023 season? (57:25). The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here: https://thepowerrank.com/ Support the podcast: https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Pat is joined by Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points to discuss the fallout from the NFL draft, including why steals aren't a big deal but reaches are and how the Colts broke Kevin's heart by not doubling up at quarterback.They also dive into Kevin's RB and WR models, discussing Jahmyr Gibbs' outlook, Devin Achane's skyrocketing value, Chase Brown's situational value, and Quentin Johnston's sneaky massive ceiling for 2024 targets.FOLLOW:► Kevin ➝ https://twitter.com/KevinCole___► Pat ➝ https://twitter.com/PatKerraneClick here to get $30 off a Legendary Upside yearly subscription (includes Discord Access).Click here to fill out the form activating a $50 Underdog credit (for yearly LegUp subscribers).

Jake first shares his thoughts on the Browns picking up the 5th-year option for Jedrick Wills and what surrounds that decision now and in the future. Then Jake shares his interview with Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points where the two discuss his recent write-up on NFL Analytical Draft Grades which aims to "quantify trade, positional and selection value for the most accurate and predictive assessments of how well teams did in the NFL draft." The two go through their thoughts on the theory of consensus mocks and how they shape public opinion, how the Browns did according to his metrics, and why 5th-year options have changed in frequency through recent seasons. LINK TO KEVIN'S REFERENCED ARTICLE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Drafting is more art than science, but history can tell us important things about what players to look for and where. Former PFF data whiz and Unexpected Points creator Kevin Cole joins the show to talk about what draft history tells us about what a good NFL tight end looks like in college and what players that applies to in this class. Plus, why the biggest improvement from last year to this year won't come in the draft but players already on the team.Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…

Drafting is more art than science, but history can tell us important things about what players to look for and where. Former PFF data whiz and Unexpected Points creator Kevin Cole joins the show to talk about what draft history tells us about what a good NFL tight end looks like in college and what players that applies to in this class. Plus, why the biggest improvement from last year to this year won't come in the draft but players already on the team. Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…

Hour 4 - 00:00 - Mock Draft Wednesday 20:12 - Kevin Cole From Unexpected Points 32:09 - Heard It Here First

Kevin details the Unexpected Points research from this week, plus: - * How a couple analytically savvy analyst get it wrong with Lamar Jackson splits - * Taking YouTube livestream questionsWatch on Youtube: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker take a look at draft value and how much analytics impact the inexact science. Kevin Cole from Unexpected Points shared his analytical take on the positions that have historically offered the best value. Steve is quizzed in The Numbers Game on draft movement under the Brandon Beane-Sean McDermott regime. Our One Burning Question examines if the Bills will move up or down in this year's draft. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Davis Mattek and Kevin Cole discuss Aaron Rodgers' likely move to the New York Jets, probability in the NFL, the SVB failure and more wide-ranging topics www.patreon.com/taekcast

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Watch on YouTube: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

The Bears were the hot topic at the 2023 NFL Combine. What was Ryan Poles up to at the combine as he looks to deal the No. 1 pick. Talking trades? Scouting QBs? To recap everything that went down at the combine, Josh Schrock and Ken Davis discuss what the Bears insider learned at the combine, including what the Bears are looking for in a trade, how far Jalen Carter might fall down teams' draft boards, will the Bears make a move for a WR early, and MUCH MORE! Later in the pod, Josh met up with NFL data expert Kevin Cole to break down the Bears' offseason and where the Bears can find value in the draft and free agency.2:20 - Should Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the first WR taken in the draft and should the Bears be in on him10:54 - Does the combine outing of the QBs help or hurt the Bears if they want to trade down32:30 - Kevin Cole of UnExpected Points joins Josh SchrockSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joined 3HL to talk about the trade value of Derrick Henry, Will Levis, and the NFL Combine and more You can listen to 3HL and 104.5 The Zone no matter where you are in the world. Just subscribe to our channel by clicking on the links below  104.5 The Zone App  Apple Store - https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/104-5-the-zone/id383299700?mt=8  Google Play - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.airkast.WGFXFM   3HL on Apple Podcast  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/3hl/id1103395659   3HL on Spotify  https://open.spotify.com/show/3O2pLdz4xu1GGc1ueCG9UD?si=475f849bc5274c78  3HL on Stitcher  https://listen.stitcher.com/yvap/?af_dp=stitcher://show/424124&af_web_dp=https://www.stitcher.com/show/424124&deep_link_value=stitcher://show/424124  3HL on Podchaser  https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/3hl-503331 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joined 3HL to talk about the trade value of Derrick Henry, Will Levis, and the NFL Combine and more You can listen to 3HL and 104.5 The Zone no matter where you are in the world. Just subscribe to our channel by clicking on the links below  104.5 The Zone App  Apple Store - https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/104-5-the-zone/id383299700?mt=8  Google Play - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.airkast.WGFXFM   3HL on Apple Podcast  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/3hl/id1103395659   3HL on Spotify  https://open.spotify.com/show/3O2pLdz4xu1GGc1ueCG9UD?si=475f849bc5274c78  3HL on Stitcher  https://listen.stitcher.com/yvap/?af_dp=stitcher://show/424124&af_web_dp=https://www.stitcher.com/show/424124&deep_link_value=stitcher://show/424124  3HL on Podchaser  https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/3hl-503331 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joins Matthew Coller to talk about the areas where the NFL Combine matters and what it tells us about the positions the Vikings need, including pass rusher, cornerback and wide receiver. Plus Kevin thinks that the Vikings should go for a QB sooner than later if they aren't signing Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joins Matthew Coller to talk about the areas where the NFL Combine matters and what it tells us about the positions the Vikings need, including pass rusher, cornerback and wide receiver. Plus Kevin thinks that the Vikings should go for a QB sooner than later if they aren't signing Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You can watch the episode on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel. Plus, subscribe and leave questions for future Q&A's.For all of the research I discuss on the pod, get a paid subscription to the Unexpected Points substack.Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Was a first round pick for Sean Payton really a steal? Has the age of the analytical GM truly arrived? Kevin Cole from the Unexpected Points podcast joins Colum to discuss all of the above and more. Kevin wrote a piece entitled 'Jalen Hurts wasn't a good pick by the Philadelphia Eagles — he was a great one' in April 2020 offer his thoughts on the factors in the Eagles success. You can find Kevin on Twitter: @KevinCole___ More information on the Irish NFL Show on our website https://www.irishnflshow.com/

Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for the NFL Divisional Round! Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points joins Aaron and Mike to preview the four games from this weekend's slate, starting with Daniel Jones and the Eagles-Giants matchup.Stop by every Thursday throughout the 2022 postseason to preview matchups, talk prop bets, and more with Aaron and Mike. Be sure to subscribe and click the bell icon to receive notifications for all future Football Outsiders uploads and live streams.Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOlwUrfLeLgFootball Outsiders is covering more than ever before with expanded NFL coverage and updates. Be sure to get the most from Football Outsiders with a FO+ subscription, and tune in live on YouTube, Twitch, or Twitter throughout the NFL season at 1 p.m. ET to join the conversation! Subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and creator of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include: Chicago Bears and the number one pick in the 2023 draft (5:21). Adjusting QB stats for teammates and Daniel Jones (15:03). Kevin's model for predicting spreads (23:50). Seattle at San Francisco (27:35). Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (32:35). Miami at Buffalo (35:44). New York Giants at Minnesota (38:05). Baltimore at Cincinnati (40:25). Dallas at Tampa Bay (45:03). The favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC (49:23). The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here: https://thepowerrank.com/ Support the podcast: https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup.You can find Ed on twitter, or his great site for betting info and predictions.If watching on YouTube is your thing.Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts. Get full access to Unexpected Points at unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

For this week's solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers.Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We're going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne. It's a fantastic story of the Air Raid's founding and ascendance, with Hal Mumme and Mike Leach prominently featured. Lots of lessons from this book to apply to any endeavor, especially when looking to challenge the establishment order.I lastly have some Q&A from the livestream and detail this weeks research on Joe Burrow's declining sack rate and Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE).Leave comments about “The Perfect Pass” here if you've already read the book, or are now motivated to start, and I'll discuss them in the next episode. I'm planning on reviewing the first half of the book (Chapters 1-10) in next Friday's pod.Take care.Thanks for reading Unexpected Points! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Get full access to Unexpected Points at unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference. Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades.Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or worse than their records. Plus, talk on his beloved Jets.Follow Chase on twitter. Get full access to Unexpected Points at unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

I'm back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking.I discuss my takes and research (research in links):* The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers.* Baker's magical evening, McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around.* Jon Robinson's firing and how billion-dollar NFL franchises aren't run like stable businesses.* YouTube Live Watchers Q&A: Patriots playoff chances? Is Justin Field legit? What should the Jets do at QB?You support the pod and my research by subscribing to the Unexpected Points Substack. Get full access to Unexpected Points at unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

Davis Mattek and Kevin Cole discuss the MVP race, the killer weaknesses of every NFL team, what the hell can Denver do going forward, and if Kevin should become a political grifter on Substack www.patreon.com/taekcast

Spike's in agreement with the GOP's Nikki Haley about Tik Tok, and doesn't blame Joe Kent for having a recount.//Spike talks about the Huskies performance this past weekend.//Texts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully). Get full access to Unexpected Points at unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.

PFF data scientist Kevin Cole, host of the "Unexpected Points" podcast, analyzes the weirdest year in recent memory and how that impacts the Minnesota Vikings' chances. Kevin's numbers aren't screaming Super Bowl for the Vikings but most teams outside of the AFC are sputtering. Where can the Vikings improve? How can increased aggressiveness unlock the answers? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

PFF data scientist Kevin Cole, host of the "Unexpected Points" podcast, analyzes the weirdest year in recent memory and how that impacts the Minnesota Vikings' chances. Kevin's numbers aren't screaming Super Bowl for the Vikings but most teams outside of the AFC are sputtering. Where can the Vikings improve? How can increased aggressiveness unlock the answers? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play.

Matthew Coller gets together with Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus to talk about the countdown on his podcast Unexpected Points where he looks at the all-time greatest quarterbacks by statistical measures. Where should Fran Tarkenton rank all time? How great was Daunte Culpepper's peak compared to other GOATs. Why Favre is just outside the top 10. The trouble with John Elway and traditional stats and how Peyton Manning and Tom Brady match up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matthew Coller gets together with Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus to talk about the countdown on his podcast Unexpected Points where he looks at the all-time greatest quarterbacks by statistical measures. Where should Fran Tarkenton rank all time? How great was Daunte Culpepper's peak compared to other GOATs. Why Favre is just outside the top 10. The trouble with John Elway and traditional stats and how Peyton Manning and Tom Brady match up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kevin continues to count down the statistical GOAT quarterbacks according to passing and rushing value added through their careers.

Ramie Show 3PM: Where do you NOT want the Packers to trade Aaron Rodgers? Plus, Pro Football Focus data scientist & host of the "Unexpected Points" podcast, Kevin Cole joined the Ramie to review Aaron Rodgers' playoff performances and more.

Pro Football Focus data scientist & host of the "Unexpected Points" podcast, Kevin Cole joined the Ramie to review Aaron Rodgers' playoff performances and more.

Host Ian Hartitz welcomes on PFF data scientist and host of Unexpected Points podcast Kevin Cole for 10 questions related to the league's over- and under-performing players. Topics include: can Russ keep cooking, how washed is Big Ben, will the Browns' running backs ever stop scoring, buy low on Jonathan Taylor and Mike Davis?, can Ja'Marr Chase keep on keeping on, what to expect from Calvin Ridley moving forward, if Dawson Knox might be a thing, can Jonnu Smith rebound and much more

Matthew Coller is joined by Pro Football Focus data scientist and host of the Unexpected Points podcast Kevin Cole to talk about his analytical QB rankings through two games, which have Kirk Cousins as the fourth best quarterback in the league. First they talk about the odd nature of kicking and the ways in which nobody can figure it out, then Kevin breaks down why Cousins's numbers are so strong so far and what it would take to keep them going. And will we see the Vikings' defense improve as the season goes along? What would 0-3 mean in a 17-game season? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matthew Coller is joined by Pro Football Focus data scientist and host of the Unexpected Points podcast Kevin Cole to talk about his analytical QB rankings through two games, which have Kirk Cousins as the fourth best quarterback in the league. First they talk about the odd nature of kicking and the ways in which nobody can figure it out, then Kevin breaks down why Cousins's numbers are so strong so far and what it would take to keep them going. And will we see the Vikings' defense improve as the season goes along? What would 0-3 mean in a 17-game season? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jake is back solo as he does a quick hitter on coaches quotes from the third day of minicamp and the analytics nuggets received from the coordinators and a from the Unexpected Points podcast with Browns Director of Football Research and Study.

Now that most NFL rosters are largely finalized for 2021, which teams have made the biggest improvements during the offseason? Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus and the Unexpected Points podcast joins The Power Rank's Dr. Ed Feng and numberFire's Jim Sannes to break that down, discussing which teams are primed for a leap next year, whether betting markets are fully accounting for those changes, and what we can take away from last week's NFL draft.

Kevin Cole is joined by FIVETHIRTYEIGHT's Josh Hermsmeyer again to talk about the Eagles tanking situation, GM's and head coaches across the NFL and much more in this weeks episode of Unexpected Points.

PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes USA Today's, Steven Ruiz. Kev and Steve discuss Steven's latest work (01:38) and dive into the age old question: coverage vs. pass rush (09:34)? Kev and Steve also discuss Steven's QB rankings (24:15) and much more on episode 2 of Unexpected Points.

George and Eric are joined by PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss Kevin's new “Unexpected Points” podcast(2:53). Fantasy QB draft strategy (9:40). 2020 NFL bold predictions (16:27). David Montgomery injury news (40:13). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the first ever episode of Unexpected Points, PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole sits down with FanDuel and numberFire's, JJ Zachariason. Kev and JJ discuss JJ's 15 bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy season, including Cam Newton's potential finish as a top-5 fantasy QB (14:59), a monster season for Adam Thielen (24:50), and a battle in the AFC North between James Conner and Nick Chubb (41:14).