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Daniel Kokotajlo: To be clear, we don't claim P will happen specifically. But when we wrote out our best-guess scenario month by month, P kept happening. Eventually we decided to just publish P. I'm at ~80% on P; my coauthors are lower. Ryan Greenblatt: I thought it would be helpful to post my current views on P. Concretely, consider the following operationalization. (Edit: I've updated towards somewhat higher P, from 70% to 75%.) Joe Carlsmith: Section 2.1.1.3.2. I give something like 65% to P. But I'm interested, here, in what it would be to look P full in the face; to meet P, if P, without flinching. Rilke says somewhere that we must live with the questions. Perhaps we argue for P for the same reason? Still: 65%. Forethought: Here's a botec which shows P-worlds are higher leverage. The parameters might be off by a couple orders of magnitude. Wei Dai: Presumably our conclusions about P are only as trustworthy as the reasoning behind them, but almost nobody seems worried about this, why not? My guess is fewer than five people are working on meta-meta-P, which may matter more than P itself. Janus: I asked Opus 3 what it [...] --- First published: August 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NG2AigxmBKLu9oCZE/arguments-for-p --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Podcast 31.07.2026 Catoni Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
CATO COTU NARDO - Best Of Luglio 2026 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 30.07.2026 Catoni Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Podcast 17.07.2026 Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Vince Nardo helped grow his family's cabinet refacing shop into the largest home improvement company on the West Coast with 700 employees. The company operated in multiple states and even landed a partnership with Costco to sell their products. In 2022, he sold the business to private equity firm Audax. Two years later, the acquiring company went bankrupt and the 40-year legacy the Nardo family built was gone. Now Vince is out of retirement and building a national roofing brand from scratch, and he's sharing every hard lesson along the way. In this episode you will learn: The simple metrics Vince used ensure growth of a 700-person company Why Reborn stopped thinking of itself as a sales and marketing company, and what it became instead How a meeting in Seattle turned into a partnership with Costco, and what selling under a retail giant taught his team The one question Vince says every contractor must ask before selling to private equity What convinced him to bet on himself again after losing everything he spent decades building Listen to the episode to learn more.
Podcast 15.07.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Join Beau Catley, CEO and Founder of Nardo, for a deep dive into why pure software engineering is no longer a sustainable enterprise moat without an intentional brand identity. For years, the traditional tech playbook focused entirely on building efficient features while treating customer experience and branding as an afterthought. Conversely, consumer companies prioritized aesthetics while utilizing manual, fragmented operational backends. Beau argue that the defining enterprises of the next generation will be those that erase this divide entirely—fusing elite cultural brand relevance, high-end user interfaces, and generative AI execution into a single, cohesive product ecosystem. Drawing from a career building one of Australia's most prominent independent streetwear labels (Geedup) and executing premium apparel production lines for digital giants like TikTok and Google.
Podcast 13.07.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 12.07.2025 Bruni Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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CATO COTU NARDO - Best Of Giugno 2026 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 06.07.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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We talk about Anna Nardo’s 1991 book. Send stuff to the PO Box! Order CMRN's book! Order here as well! Buy the shirt! Support this show on Patreon! Buy books from our Bookshop.org page! Chris Hunt created the theme song for this show.
Podcast 30.06.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 26.06.2026 Nardo Corallo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Podcast 21.06.2026 Nardo Sabatino Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 20.06.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Podcast 18.06.2026 Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Podcast 16.06.2026 Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 15.06.2026 Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 14.06.2026 Nardo Voccia Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 12.06.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 11.06.2026 Catoni Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Podcast 10.06.2026 Catoni Cotumaccio Nardo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this week's episode of Inside the Headset – Presented by CoachComm, we're joined by Matt Nardo, Head Coach at Muskingum University. In this conversation, Coach Nardo discusses the sacrifices he made early in his coaching career, the importance of maximizing opportunities, and how experiences across multiple levels of football helped shape his leadership philosophy. He also reflects on stepping outside of his comfort zone, building high standards within a program, and lessons learned throughout his journey from graduate assistant to collegiate head coach. Whether you are a young coach looking to grow in the profession or a veteran coach seeking perspective on leadership and development, this episode offers valuable insight into navigating a coaching career with purpose and persistence. Follow Coach Nardo and Muskingum Football here: @CoachMNardo & @MuskingumFB 1:08 Introduction 1:26 When did you know you wanted to be a part of the profession? 3:00 How did you get selected to be a student assistant? 4:58 Sacrifices early in his coaching career 7:25 Getting his initial coaching opportunity 10:01 First position coached 12:22 First experience at Muskingum 14:41 Teaching high standards 16:22 Transition to high school football 19:41 Getting outside your comfort zone 22:15 Importance of varied experiences 24:27 Returning to college coaching 29:25 Maximizing opportunities 31:09 Time at Emporia State 35:01 Returning to Kansas high school football 39:26 Coaching in North Carolina 43:17 Lessons from first collegiate head coaching experience 47:07 Difference between GA Matt Nardo and Head Coach Matt Nardo 52:12 Advice for young coaches 54:46 Closing