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God help you if you miss this one. AI isn't going away, it's only going to get more prominent in our everyday lives. But it's going to need a lot of "things" to make it work and scale. If you can identify those "things", those critical components which go into AI, you will make a LOT of money over the next 5, 10, 15 years. In part 2 of 2 in our AI series, VP points out exactly what those very "things" are likely to be. Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Dr. Greg Williams—a globally recognized negotiation and body language expert known as the “Master Negotiator.” He joins me on the show to share insights from over 30 years of experience and his Harvard training. We discuss the importance of meticulous planning and how to recognize and counter aggressive negotiating maneuvers. Dr. Williams shares real-world examples—from complex business deals to high-pressure hostage situations—highlighting the power of adaptability, reading nonverbal cues, and understanding motivation in every negotiation. Packed with actionable advice and memorable stories, this conversation is designed to empower you to approach every negotiation with confidence and integrity. Whether you're facing internal politics or tough procurement professionals, Dr. Williams' expertise will inspire you to refine your negotiation skills and achieve win-win outcomes. Outline of This Episode [03:16] Negotiation tactics vary based on context and goals, requiring adaptability in approach and tone [07:59] Strategies to use in internal conflict in negotiations [11:16] Use questions to assess if demands are genuine or a negotiation tactic [13:27] Take note of background information for future leverage [17:56] How a hostage situation involving a father with a gun to his son's head was resolved by a body language expert [20:19] You're always negotiating—what you do today influences tomorrow's activities Closing in High-Stakes Sales Deals A common misconception is that negotiation strategy and tactics are interchangeable. Dr. Williams clarifies the distinction: strategy is the guiding plan you lead with, while tactics are the tools you use to implement that strategy. Tactics support, build upon, and adapt to your strategy as the negotiation unfolds. For example, if your strategy is to make the opposing party feel valued and appreciated, a logical tactic might be to extend an unexpected, thoughtful gift. This gesture utilizes the power of reciprocity—people tend to give back when they receive, which can open the door to more concessions and a friendlier negotiation environment. Building Adaptive Negotiation Strategies No two negotiations are the same, so an effective negotiator remains flexible and tailors their approach to the unique personalities, organizational goals, and circumstances involved. Confidence, amenability, assertiveness, or neutrality—each can be powerful, but only when used at the right moment. Reading the room and even modulating your voice are subtle yet powerful indicators that shape the dynamics at the negotiation table. The Crucial Role of Preparation and Planning “Planning is everything,” Dr. Williams insists. Entering a negotiation underprepared puts you at a sharp disadvantage. Effective negotiators plot out “what-if” scenarios, establish mile markers to track progress, and construct exit strategies in case the deal veers off-course. Preparation also means looking inward—evaluating your objectives and the motivations of all stakeholders at the table. Dr. Williams highlights how, in complex sales involving multiple internal divisions, misaligned teams can be their own worst enemy, sometimes negotiating harder with each other than with the external party. Internal alignment through clear objectives, information sharing plans, and even mock negotiations helps ensure the team is unified and prepared for whatever the other side brings. Recognizing and Countering Aggressive Tactics Professional procurement negotiators often deploy aggressive moves like last-minute demands or “nibbling” for additional concessions at the end. Dr. Williams advocates assessing the true intent and long-term value of the deal before reacting. By calmly asking probing questions—such as “Why do you need that?”—the negotiator can reveal whether these are genuine concerns or just red herrings designed to extract further concessions. Information gained during these exchanges is invaluable. As Dr. Williams demonstrates through a mock scenario on the podcast, even casual comments about personal or organizational motivations can be leveraged in future negotiations. Top Dos and Don'ts of Negotiation Dr. Williams also shares his top three negotiation dos: Never confuse lack of preparation with being prepared. Enter with your facts, scenarios, and exit plans in hand. Seek to understand motivations. Every party brings hidden drivers to the table—learn them before negotiating. Don't assume a verbal agreement is the end. Post-negotiation follow-up is crucial to ensure all parties stay committed. Conversely, avoid entering deals blindly, neglecting to clarify the other party's interests, and failing to validate the agreement after the negotiation ends. As Dr. Williams recounts from his own challenging experience negotiating a hostage situation, the most effective negotiators blend empathy, preparation, and adaptability. Whether a life-or-death standoff or a multi-million dollar business deal, the underlying principle remains: leverage your value by viewing every interaction as part of an ongoing negotiation. The best negotiators plan, listen, adapt, and always look for the motivations that move the deal forward. Connect with Dr. Greg Williams The Master Negotiator Connect With Paul Watts LinkedIn Twitter Subscribe to SALES REINVENTED Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com
AI adoption, dollar weakness and tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill are some of the factors boosting our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson's confidence in U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I will discuss what's driving my optimism on stocks. It's Tuesday, July 29th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the past few weeks, I have been leaning more toward our bull case of 7200 for the S&P 500 by the middle of next year. This view is largely based on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than anticipated. The drivers are numerous and include positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill, and easy growth comparisons and pent-up demand for many sectors in the market. While many are still focused on tariffs as a headwind to growth, our analysis shows that tariff cost exposures for S&P 500 industry groups is fairly contained given the countries in scope and the exemptions that are still in place from the USMCA. Meanwhile, deals are being signed with our largest trading partners like Japan and Europe that appear favorable to the U.S. Due to the lack of pricing power, the main area of risk in the stock market from tariffs is consumer goods; and that's why we remain underweight that sector. However, the main tariff takeaway for investors is that the rate of change on policy uncertainty peaked in early April. This is the primary reason why earnings guidance bottomed in April as evidenced by the significant inflection higher in earnings revisions breadth—the key fundamental factor that we have been focused on. Of course, the near-term set up is not without risks. These include still high long-term interest rates, tariff-related inflation and potential margin pressure. As a result, a correction is possible during the seasonally weak third quarter, but pull-backs should be shallow and bought. In addition to the growth tailwinds already cited, it's worth pointing out that many companies also face very easy growth comparisons. I've had a long standing out of consensus view that the U.S. has been experiencing a rolling recession for the last three years. This fits with the fact that much of the soft economic data that has been hovering in recession territory for much of that period as well—things like purchasing manager indices, consumer confidence, and the private labor market. It also aligns with my long-standing view that government spending has helped to keep the headline economic growth statistics strong, while much of the private sector and many consumers have been crowded out by that heavy spending which has also kept the Fed too tight. Meanwhile, private sector wage growth has been in a steady decline over the last several years, and payroll growth across Tech, Financials and Business Services has been negative – until recently. Conversely, Government and Education/Health Services payroll growth has been much stronger over this time horizon. This type of wage growth and sluggish payroll growth in the private sector is typical of an early cycle backdrop. It's a key reason why operating leverage inflects in early cycle environments, and margins expand. Our earnings model is picking up on this underappreciated dynamic, and AI adoption is likely to accelerate this phenomenon. In short, this is looking more and more like an early cycle set up where leaner cost structures drive positive operating leverage after an extended period of wage growth consolidation. Bottom line, the capitulatory price action and earnings estimate cuts we saw in April of this year around Liberation Day represented the end of a rolling recession that began in 2022. Markets bottom on bad news and we are transitioning from that rolling earnings recession backdrop to a rolling recovery environment. The combination of positive earnings and cash flow drivers with the easy growth comparisons fostered by the rolling EPS recession and the high probability of the Fed re-starting the cutting cycle by the first quarter of next year should facilitate this transition. The upward inflection we're seeing in earnings revisions breadth confirms this process is well underway and suggests returns for the average stock are likely to be strong over the next 12-months. In short, buy any dips that may occur in the seasonally weak quarter of the year. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Beyond Belief: James Craig's Chilling Crime, Cover-Up, and Courtroom Showdown Prepare for an immersive and chilling journey into the complete true crime saga of James Craig, a man once revered as an ideal community figure—a dedicated dentist, a loving family man, and a pillar of his church. This comprehensive episode meticulously unpacks the shocking allegations that his meticulously crafted public mask concealed a sinister, premeditated plot to end his wife Angela's life. We will delve into the profound psychological dissonance at play, exploring how Craig allegedly maintained a façade of normalcy while secretly plotting murder. This narrative transitions into the terrifying "Murder by Milligram" section, revealing the precise and insidious strategy of poisoning using cyanide and tetrahydrozoline. We'll analyze the damning forensic timeline, from online poison searches to chemical deliveries at his dental office and Angela's tragic hospital visits, questioning how Craig's medical background made the alleged acts even more egregious. The core of this section will dissect how the slow, calculated nature of poisoning strengthens the prosecution's argument for first-degree murder, and the immense challenge faced by the defense in countering such overwhelming scientific evidence. The story then takes a truly disturbing turn into the "Cover-Up" phase. We expose the astonishing accusations of Craig's post-arrest machinations, including the ethically reprehensible request to his own teenage daughter to create a deepfake video of Angela admitting suicide. This segment will explore the legal ramifications of such manipulation, examining how jailhouse letters and alleged attempts to recruit false witnesses can retroactively prove criminal intent and consciousness of guilt. The emotional toll on the victim's family, especially Craig's daughter, when pulled into such a desperate scheme, will be addressed, alongside the legal and ethical questions surrounding a defendant who treats family as mere pawns. Finally, we culminate in the intense "Courtroom Momentum," dissecting the high-stakes legal strategies employed by both prosecution and defense. We'll analyze how prosecutors meticulously thread together financial ruin, a secret affair, and image control as compelling motives, supported by digital evidence and post-crime behavior. Conversely, we'll examine the defense's uphill battle to inject reasonable doubt, often implying alternative explanations like suicide, and the pivotal considerations jurors must weigh as the case heads toward closing arguments. This comprehensive exposé reveals the full scope of James Craig's alleged deception, Angela's tragic betrayal, and the relentless pursuit of justice within the legal system. It's a complete unraveling of a dark secret that will leave you questioning the very nature of trust and human morality. Hashtags: #JamesCraigCase #AngelaCraigMurder #TrueCrimeFullStory #PoisonPlot #DeepfakeCoverUp #ForensicEvidence #CourtroomDrama #PsychologicalThriller #LegalAnalysis #JusticeForAngela #PremeditatedMurder #Betrayal #TrueCrimeCommunity #CrimeDocumentary #DigitalEvidence #MotiveExplained #ConsciousnessOfGuilt #MurderMystery #CriminalJustice #UnbelievableCrime Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872
Hidden Killers With Tony Brueski | True Crime News & Commentary
Beyond Belief: James Craig's Chilling Crime, Cover-Up, and Courtroom Showdown Prepare for an immersive and chilling journey into the complete true crime saga of James Craig, a man once revered as an ideal community figure—a dedicated dentist, a loving family man, and a pillar of his church. This comprehensive episode meticulously unpacks the shocking allegations that his meticulously crafted public mask concealed a sinister, premeditated plot to end his wife Angela's life. We will delve into the profound psychological dissonance at play, exploring how Craig allegedly maintained a façade of normalcy while secretly plotting murder. This narrative transitions into the terrifying "Murder by Milligram" section, revealing the precise and insidious strategy of poisoning using cyanide and tetrahydrozoline. We'll analyze the damning forensic timeline, from online poison searches to chemical deliveries at his dental office and Angela's tragic hospital visits, questioning how Craig's medical background made the alleged acts even more egregious. The core of this section will dissect how the slow, calculated nature of poisoning strengthens the prosecution's argument for first-degree murder, and the immense challenge faced by the defense in countering such overwhelming scientific evidence. The story then takes a truly disturbing turn into the "Cover-Up" phase. We expose the astonishing accusations of Craig's post-arrest machinations, including the ethically reprehensible request to his own teenage daughter to create a deepfake video of Angela admitting suicide. This segment will explore the legal ramifications of such manipulation, examining how jailhouse letters and alleged attempts to recruit false witnesses can retroactively prove criminal intent and consciousness of guilt. The emotional toll on the victim's family, especially Craig's daughter, when pulled into such a desperate scheme, will be addressed, alongside the legal and ethical questions surrounding a defendant who treats family as mere pawns. Finally, we culminate in the intense "Courtroom Momentum," dissecting the high-stakes legal strategies employed by both prosecution and defense. We'll analyze how prosecutors meticulously thread together financial ruin, a secret affair, and image control as compelling motives, supported by digital evidence and post-crime behavior. Conversely, we'll examine the defense's uphill battle to inject reasonable doubt, often implying alternative explanations like suicide, and the pivotal considerations jurors must weigh as the case heads toward closing arguments. This comprehensive exposé reveals the full scope of James Craig's alleged deception, Angela's tragic betrayal, and the relentless pursuit of justice within the legal system. It's a complete unraveling of a dark secret that will leave you questioning the very nature of trust and human morality. Hashtags: #JamesCraigCase #AngelaCraigMurder #TrueCrimeFullStory #PoisonPlot #DeepfakeCoverUp #ForensicEvidence #CourtroomDrama #PsychologicalThriller #LegalAnalysis #JusticeForAngela #PremeditatedMurder #Betrayal #TrueCrimeCommunity #CrimeDocumentary #DigitalEvidence #MotiveExplained #ConsciousnessOfGuilt #MurderMystery #CriminalJustice #UnbelievableCrime Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872
This week's episode has the cohosts talking about social isolation and earlier death among the elderly population. Studies have shown that loneliness is associated with a higher risk of mortality in older adults. For example, one study found that individuals experiencing loneliness at one or more points in time had a higher hazard for mortality compared to those who never experienced loneliness. Loneliness can trigger physiological stress responses, potentially leading to chronic inflammation and reduced immunity. These factors can contribute to the development of various health problems, including heart disease, Alzheimer's, and other age-related illnesses. Social isolation, which is closely linked to loneliness, can limit access to social support, including assistance with daily tasks, emotional support, and healthcare. This lack of support can negatively impact both physical and mental well-being. Loneliness and social isolation have also been linked to poorer cognitive function and an increased risk of conditions like dementia. Conversely, research suggests that maintaining social connections and receiving regular visits from loved ones can mitigate the risks associated with loneliness and potentially increase longevity. In essence, according to many studies prior to 2025, loneliness can create a cycle of negative health impacts, potentially increasing the risk of premature death, while social connections and support can act as protective factors. HOWEVER.... a new study was just reported last month that questions the previous assumptions. Researchers tracking home care recipients in Canada, Finland, and New Zealand discovered something unexpected: lonely older adults were actually less likely to die within a year compared to their non-lonely peers. Among the most vulnerable seniors — those receiving help at home with daily activities — being lonely was associated with an 18% to 23% lower risk of death. We are sure more research will now be done to either support the newest study or previous studies. Time will tell!
Keith discusses the impact of inflation and interest rates on real estate investing, emphasizing passive income strategies. He highlights the Florida housing market, noting a 26% increase in listings post-pandemic. Investor and Florida homebuilder, Jim, joins this episode to explain the overbuilding in the emotional market versus the underbuilt workforce housing. His company focuses on new construction in areas like Ocala, offering 40-year loans with 5.25% fixed rates, and boasting an average tenancy duration of over three years. They also provide two years of free property management and a 10-year builder warranty. Resources: Schedule a free strategy session with a GRE Investment Coach to evaluate the opportunity at GREinvestmentcoach.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/564 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what control do you have over inflation and interest rates? Then, with the Florida housing oversupply and resultant attrition and price levels, wouldn't it be interesting to talk to a prominent Florida homebuilder? That's just what we do today on get rich education. Speaker 1 0:27 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Speaker 2 1:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold 1:28 Welcome to GRE from coral, Illinois to Cape Coral, Florida and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You are inside for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 with inflation on the upswing and is currently approaching 3% again, the formula is small. Down payment. Bank buys you the house. Tenants pay down the loan. Property Manager handles nearly everything. You collect cash every month. Inflation builds you massive wealth, and that's real estate, all right. And no one really knows what's going to happen with inflation and interest rates, those two positively correlated indicators, but at times we have an illustrious guest that will make a prediction. And GRE episode 224, from January of 2019 has been getting some attention lately. That's back when interest rates of all types were really low, and when I interviewed legendary investor Jim Rogers in Singapore, listen in to what he told you, and I on that episode, then Speaker 3 2:49 you ask me, we're now headed up again, and interest rates are going to go go much, much, much higher over the next few decades, and it's going to ruin a lot of people. I hope none of your listeners get ruined. I hope I don't get ruined, but rising interest rates are here for a long time. Keith, be worried. Be careful. Keith Weinhold 3:08 Yeah, some real Jim Rogers prescience there in Episode 224 he has seen some cycles. Now as investors, we've got regional phenomena and national phenomenon mortgage rates. They're a national one, because more or less, whenever you finance property anywhere in the nation, your rate is going to be the same nationwide. Perhaps you feel then like you don't have any control over your mortgage rate. Well, I've got two points to that. First, understand that today, mortgage spreads are almost back to normal. Now, what does that mean? Mortgage spreads from listening to the show, you probably know that the mortgage rate you pay is dictated more on the level of bond yields than it is the Fed funds rate that your own Powell controls. Well, 30 year mortgage rates are historically almost 2% above the bond yield, meaning they're 2% above the yield on the 10 year T note, okay, that's the bond yield. The spread was recently above 3% now it is down to about two and a half. To be clear, mortgage rates are now just about two and a half percent above bond yields in this narrowing, that means there's more investor confidence in the mortgage market, and that suggests that lenders are willing to offer loans at competitive rates without succumbing to volatility. So lenders are less concerned about the risk of you quickly refinancing out of the loan that they just worked to make for you, the translation is that this opens the door to make it easier for mortgage rates to fall to 6% and they've been nearly seven for a while. Though I don't predict rates. I'm speaking about probabilities here. Now some people want to lock up property before rates fall, because when rates fall, many think home prices will surge because more people can afford property than higher demand. And I think we all know that the conventional wisdom is to lock in your price now and then if rates fall, you refinance. Conversely, if rates go higher, well then you'll be glad you bought today when rates were lower. But today we're talking about how you can really control the mortgage rate you pay when you work with a builder that won't only see that your mortgage rate gets bought down, they'll ensure that they are the ones paying for the pie down, not you. That's key, as we talked to a home builder in Florida today, a state that makes headlines for being overbuilt, it's a case study in how a market gets to an overbuilt condition, or does it really get overbuilt? It depends on this segment of the real estate market that you're focused on as an investor, as you'll see today, let's meet this week's guest. Keith Weinhold 6:05 I'd like to welcome Jim onto the show today. He's one of the founding partners of a prominent Florida home builder. They built over 9000 residences, and they have 120 plus full time employees, and it's been such an interesting time in Florida home building and the real estate market, so that's why we're chatting today. Hey Jim, welcome onto the show. Keith, great to be back. Thanks for having me. Let's talk about the problem statewide. Florida has about 26% more listings, more available housing inventory, as compared to pre pandemic levels. That's created some problems, some price attrition. Talk about, why did Florida get over built? Or are they not truly overbuilt when we segment that by product type. Jim Sheils 7:02 Well, like you said, Keith, product type is really important to decipher here, because it does help dissect the problem a little more clearly. There's a lot of different markets happening, but two of the main things that I've seen that have caused the softening of certain segments of the market is one insurance if you are buying a 1957 home in southwest Florida, a few blocks from the beach, it is possible that your insurance has gone up four to five times. Yeah, the annual thing. So that is going to really start to shake people who own those properties. They're going to feel a little triggered to sell, and it's going to be more difficult to sell, because if you have an agent go and show that property and they ask for a good faith estimate from a lender, and they say, Well, what's your current insurance? That can really scare people. So that type of property normally properties older before 2004 when the rules changed, with higher insurance, that can change it. The second thing is, the emotional market always seems to take a hit, Keith, and I've heard you talk about this before. Now, the emotional market that I talk about is we have our median value in any of the real estate markets, right? And you go about 25% above the median, maybe 30% above the median values. That's what I call the emotional market. These are the really nice houses that are fun to visit. You know, nice to stay in, nice to live in, but they are emotional. This is an emotional market. The cash flow numbers have never worked. They're not on the ultra high end that those people normally own cash and they don't really care the fluctuation. It's that level above the median where I see the emotional market really take the hit, because when the emotion comes out, while the people it's harder to sell to find the buyers, especially with the rates jumping the way that they have over the last two years, there's not the ability to sit back and say, Well, you know what, Keith, I'm just going to hold this and rent it, because their negative position, their negative cash flow every month, begins to sink them quickly, and so that's where you see that pressure downward on that emotional market. If that makes any sense. Keith Weinhold 9:06 did Florida really get ahead of itself with the increase in pandemic migration? Was there more building because they projected that high migration rate to continue, and it just didn't. Is that why areas of Florida are overbuilt. Jim Sheils 9:22 What I believe happened was the migration was there, Keith, but again, you have to look at the sectors of the market. Now, when you're looking at a large national home builder, their goal is to sell the property with the greatest profit spread. It's just that simple, and those are the properties when times are good and times are hot, this emotional market, you know, 20, 30% above the median value for an area that's a very easy time to promote and to sell those types of properties and make the best spread for them. And so, yes, in that area, they got ahead of themselves, because it was easy to market to, easy to promote to. And again. In. Some people untrained investors, or people just emotional and saying, Well, I'm gonna have a second home in Florida, and I'll get there more often than I think I will. That causes that issue now, but going to the lower segment, like the workforce housing, like you and I have talked about, well, that has been underprepared for the migration and affordability. That is my word of the year, affordability, the affordable housing, the workforce housing. When you look at the stats, I think it was last year we found the stat that for every 25 workforce housing, new construction workforce housing, there's 100 renters. And so the workforce housing has been underdeveloped, and why? You know, we're a niche builder. It's very rare for a builder like us to focus on workforce housing. That's not the focus of many of the larger builders. They're on that more emotional market. So that's where we focus. But with builders like us focusing on that, no one else that part of the market, Keith has been under supplied, actually in the last few years, because the net migration didn't need those emotional houses. They needed the workforce housing. Keith Weinhold 11:05 This is a great distinction. We can look at a stat like there's 26% more available housing inventory in Florida statewide than there was pre pandemic, but you've got to parse that by product type, workforce housing, which you specialize in, including build to rent, housing has not been oversupplied, not nearly to that same extent. It could even be undersupplied, depending on where you're at. These are the properties that make the best long term income properties. I hope you the listener caught it there. Jim gave an important date. 2004 is a key year when there were changes to building codes, which results in what your insurance premiums are going to be. Tell us more about that. Jim Sheils 11:50 Yeah, 2004 right through Punta Gorda, Florida, where we build now. There was Hurricane Charlie came through. My dad's cousin, I have actually lived there at the time. I mean, that place got decimated. Keith, it got absolutely decimated, and the government called timeout. They said, timeout. Okay, we got to stop this. New rules. Moving forward, we're going to change the structural design requirements. We're going to change the elevation requirements. This is the big one. So you know, back in the day, you and I, if we were back in 1962 in Fort Myers, Florida, we could build a house at two feet or three feet above sea level. Those days are gone. If you're going to build a property like going back to Punta Gordon, now today, you have to build it 13 to 14 feet above sea level. So that means builders like us got to bring in a lot of dirt, and we grumble and complain about it until a storm goes through and we have no flooding on any of our properties. But that was a requirement, then stronger fasteners and structural design, because they just didn't want that risk or this type of damage. And it's been interesting, because they've been two hurricanes, you know, since 2004 that have really gone right over the eye. The main power of the storm has gone through. Punta Gorda. I've actually showed this on some videos that we've done on YouTube, like the flyover the next day, and you would think, Oh, well, maybe there was like a strong wind that went through, because there's palm fronds down and some fencing, but the houses are intact, and it's because things had to be rebuilt to today's standards. So I always tell people, hey, you know, we'd love to help you get a house, but if you're just going down there to find a house, I would highly recommend you look at the elevation and look if your house was built before the year 2004 or after, because that is really when things started to change. Not that a house earlier might not have what you're looking for, but elevation is such a key component when you're near coastal areas in Florida, the elevation of your home. Keith Weinhold 13:41 Is it that simple? Pre 2004 you're likely to pay substantially higher insurance premiums on your Florida property than you are if the build year was 2004 or later. Jim Sheils 13:52 It's a main component, Keith, another component will be to that is, you know, how close are you to the beach? If you're within, you know, a half a mile of the beach that can have an on lower ground of an older property, those combinations for risk analysis for an insurance company will come up not in your favor, and so you have to put that into account too. Again, the further you move inland, especially the further you move north, and the further you move inland in Florida, the insurance premiums go down because the risk assessment of the last 100 Years of hurricanes has been so much dramatically lower of actually causing issue. Keith Weinhold 14:29 We'll talk about the Florida areas that you build in later. But first, let's just pull back. Talk about statewide. How bad is it? How bad is it with the overbuilt condition in some segments of the residential market, and how that's led to price attrition, a lack of rent growth or rental occupancy rates that are hurt potentially. Can you speak to that? How bad is it now, Jim Sheils 14:54 again, going to the segment of the emotional market, so we're talking 20 to 30% above the median. In price in an area that's going to be bad, that's where you're going to have to have downward pressure. You're going to have to your property may have appreciated Well, if you did in 2020, but you're not selling a peak pricing. You're going to have to come off your numbers a good amount, because there's not as many buyers. And also, you got to remember, coupled with that pricing coming down, it's also the interest rates we got pretty spoiled. You know, three and a half percent interest rates, two and a half percent interest rates for some homeowners, that's just not the norm now. So when you're going off those numbers, the affordability, the ability to make that payment, has really been affected. So that emotional market, I think we're going to see a continued softening in that and again, in that emotional market too. To what I saw was, and I own some short term rentals, and I like short term rentals, but what we saw there was a rush, like, almost like a California gold rush, here in Florida, to people coming in and buying what they consider a short term rental, which was not really desirable for short term rent. It could get a few people here and there, but they would buy it, this emotional market, and then the numbers wouldn't work out. Now that, as well, is starting to put pressure on people saying, Oh, I'm losing so much money every month. Let's just sell and again, that emotional market, that area, 20, 25% 30% above median value. That's where we're seeing that. So you're going to see some pressure downward of that, I'd say at least another 10% because there's already been a dip in some areas 15 to 20% so there has been a correction in those and I think we'll continue to see that until some of this stabilizes. Keith Weinhold 16:32 Talk to us about how the rental segment's doing, statewide Jim Sheils 16:36 rental, we saw a stagnation for about a year and a half to two years, and just in the last six months, we've seen an increase in some of our main markets here. Again, when I say they main markets here, I'm always speaking, because that's what we stick to, the workforce housing. So we've seen workforce housing some of our main central Florida markets and some of our Northeast markets go up another 50 to $100 which was great, because it was stagnant for about two years. About two years. And then you'll see a continued dip of probably, you know, 10 to 15% on some of that emotional market rentals, because now there's a rush to try to rent them, and again, there's not as much of a demand for that segment of the market. Keith Weinhold 17:17 We're talking with a prominent Florida home builder about Florida's temporarily overbuilt residential housing type. We've already learned that 2004 is a key year for what your insurance rates are likely going to be. We've also learned about how you need to segment these residential housing markets between workforce housing and the emotional side of the market. You're listening to get rich education more when we come back on Florida real estate, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Keith Weinhold 17:46 the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com. Keith Weinhold 18:18 You know what's crazy, your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little is 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family tp 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866, Kristen Tate 19:29 this is author Kristen Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You Keith Weinhold 19:46 welcome back to get rich education. Jim is with us, a prominent Florida home builder, and it's so interesting to talk to a home builder today because you think a Florida is overbuilding Ground Zero, even though, paradoxically. Nationally, we're still in a somewhat under built condition, where there's somewhat of a lack of available housing supply. Now, back on our April 28 show, exactly three months ago today, which I know that you listened to Jim, that show was titled, is Florida real estate doomed? And the short answer is no and I gave a number of reasons for that. You don't want to catch a falling knife as an investor. One prominent reason that Florida real estate is not doomed, and you're not catching a falling knife, and this is so close to being 100% predictable, is the fact that the growth is going to be there. It always has been in Florida, the in migration has been remarkable. If you go back and look at every census over about the last 200 years, since 1830 Florida has grown substantially every single census, oftentimes and usually at a rate greater than the national average. So in migration is almost certainly going to continue, which, over the long term, will put upward pressure on prices, upward pressure on rents, and help with rental occupancy as well. When you have a vacancy, that next incoming tenant is going to be there, I think that's about as close to predictable as it can possibly get. So talk to us more about the dynamics in Florida and the in migration. Jim Sheils 21:26 It's funny, Keith, last year the net migration, and you can check through all the stats out there. The net migration number for Florida, that means more people, obviously coming in than leaving, and the surplus was just about 470,000 so we still have a growth of 470,000 and people have set up. Florida. Net migration is over. And I'm going, well, it was pretty superb during the pandemic, but to say it's over when it's about a half million up from last year, I think would be a misconception for at the very least. So we feel the people are still coming, and we're asking, what kind of housing do they need? Do they need that higher end, emotional market housing? Not what we're seeing, what they're needing is affordability. They're going to areas where there's still great job source, there's still great affordability, and that's what we look for. Where can we still build a new construction, single family home for under $300,000 and have great job source close by. That's one of the things that we look for. Also, where is there that under supply of that workforce housing? There are very key markets in Florida that you know about that we build in. We're saying, yeah, there's lots of stuff on the market up there, but there is no supply of this workforce housing. We're going to keep building. And as you know, we have not stopped building the last two years, when a lot of people have run for the sidelines because they weren't in our sector of the market. Keith Weinhold 22:48 Of course, you're very strategic about where you build geographically. Talk to us about where those places are Jim Sheils 22:54 right now. Keith, my pick of the year has been the greater Ocala region, and I know we've been working with a lot of GRE folks in that region. Couple of reasons why, still had the strongest migration of any area in the US. And you can look that up. U haul had it as number one destination place. This was when I say greater Ocala. I look at Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that central Florida area. You know, still in some of those markets, Keith, we're building homes for 200 60s, 270,000 that's new construction, and enabled to get great rent and great financing, which no we'll talk about. And the job source is remarkable right now. In fact, interesting statistic, Keith, I know you watch this closely. In Ocala, the median price of a home is just around 300,000 main Ocala, you can get cheaper when you go out to citrus springs and Inverness, down to the 260s 270s but the median family income is 72,000 and when you look at that, that is a very good affordability index. That's very high average family income compared to a low median price, and that's bringing in more jobs. That's bringing in more security. Couple that with Central Florida being one of the lowest hurricane risk zones in the state. It's the highest ground. It's the furthest inland, in fact, to ensure a single family home on average in that area, about $65 a month for full coverage, wow, for a duplex, $105 a month, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction buying in the right areas or low hurricane risk zone and great job source coming in. So my favorite market right now, Keith, is that Central Florida, Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that's where we're building. Oh, that's also when people say it's overbuilt. Well, no, because we know that we're actually building for a few of the big institutions that have way bigger analysis departments than we do, and they're seeing that it's so behind on housing that people are finally going in. It was kind of an overlooked market all through the pandemic for the most part, and now it's finally getting people's attention. Keith Weinhold 24:58 A couple months ago. On the show, I shared how a close friend purchased a new build Ocala duplex through you, the rents he got were even a little higher than you projected, and his insurance premium is $694 again, this is for a duplex. I forget. I think the purchase price was 400 to 420k on this new build property. Jim Sheils 25:23 Yeah. And it's funny when people, we have lots of investors coming from all over, but I was in California's, know, for years. And when people hear a quote like that, like that, you just said 650, $6 they think that's for the month. And I say, No, no, no, that's for the year. And again, that's the misconception now, but you could pick up and you could go to a coastal area again, like I said in a 1952 duplex built at two feet above sea level that's had hurricane issues before, and your insurance could be $8,000 a year. Yeah, that's where you have to really shop before you actually pull the trigger on property. What are the taxes? What are the insurance? I mean, this is going back to core play, core strategy, but it's something you really have to look at Keith Weinhold 26:07 talk to us about the product types that you're offering, all new build, and what percent of single family, duplexes and larger Jim Sheils 26:15 the main majority of what we're building right now is single family and duplex. The numbers work great. They're in high demand. You know, duplexes are a pretty interesting product, Keith, because you can put them in single family home neighborhoods, and, you know, families that couldn't normally rent, afford to rent a full house there, can avoid an apartment building, still feel like they have their own home and afford to be in that neighborhood. So I'd say 80% of what we're doing is a combination of single family home and duplexes, and then, as you know, we still are building some of our quads, our four unit buildings in some areas of northeast Florida, like Jacksonville, Keith Weinhold 26:50 expenses have obviously been on the mind of real estate investors. More so since interest rates doubled to tripled in 2022 you're selling to investors. Investors need the numbers to work. Since they're not in the emotional market, we're in the market where we're looking at numbers, and that biggest expense, of course, is your mortgage principal and interest. So you found a way to deal with high insurance premiums, because on most or all of your properties that you sell to investors, those insurance premiums are excessively low. Talk to us about what you've done with the mortgage rates, for investors Jim Sheils 27:27 it's such an important point here, Keith, I remember hearing a warren buffett thing years ago saying, Well, I'm not really in the real estate and that, but for me, when I look at it, a house is worth what it can rent for. And that always stuck with me being Warren Buffett, even though he's not heavily invested in real estate like we are. But for get his sage advice on that that's always stuck with me. So when you're getting a property, yes, you want to have fair price, but the terms around it that actually produce the cash flow, or what's the condition of the property, where is it? But then the other fundamental numbers, what is your insurance? What are your taxes? And then the final big thing is, if you're leveraging, which I encourage, what's your mortgage? And so as you know, we're probably as obsessed with financing as we are with building right, cuz that's our model. We gotta build right. We gotta finance right. So we're always looking for the most advantageous programs where we can team up with banks. They'll allow us to pay an abnormal amount of points, which means discount points that we will pay, not the buyer, we will pay for our buyers to get the rate the lowest and most advantageous. We don't like short term teaser loans, where your rate's going to adjust in 18 months or two years. We saw a lot of people get in trouble with that, at least I did back in the Oh 708, days. So we want long term financing and low interest that's going to produce a cash flow, even though it's new construction from day one. And so right now, our newest program, as you and I have been talking about very excited, is actually a 40 year loan. It's a 40 year loan. We're paying the rate down. Right now we're at five and a quarter. A few weeks ago is at 4.75 so it does fluctuate back and forth. But here's what's exciting, Keith, you're leveraging into a new construction property that has longevity and durability. The first 10 years. Interest only the next 30 years is a 30 year AM, 30 year fixed at five and a quarter. So when you start to do the numbers and go through it, we're almost doubling cash flow on our single family homes and duplexes for people in areas like Ocala, and that makes such a difference to getting them off on the right foot. Keith Weinhold 29:32 This is a key distinction. Rather than focusing on slashing the price and your properties are already affordable, you buy down that rate by purchasing discount points to buy down that mortgage rate for the investor at the terms that you just described. Builders often like this more. They don't want to cut their prices, because that can become a comparable and lead to a downgrade in values. And investors actually like it more as well, because rather than discounting the price. A little more. It helps the investor more. When you buy down that rate and you do it for them, they are not the ones participating in the rate. Buy down you, the investor. You're paying the closing costs like origination fee and title insurance and things like that. Okay with those 40 year loan terms like you laid out fixed interest only for the first 10 years, and then after 10 years, it transfers to a 30 year fixed, amortizing loan, still with that same rate locked in. Is that right? Jim Sheils 30:29 That's correct. So there's no sometimes people think, oh, then it's going to trigger upwards several percent. It stays the same the whole 40 year term. We just go from interest only to principal and interest and again, you know, because you talk about the leverage all the time, the most important time to really solidify the strength of an investment and get cash flow going. The most pivotal time is in those first few years. Yeah, we feel we're really giving people that strong foundation to get a cash flowing right off the bat and be able to look long term. The great thing about new construction is people say, Could you hold it that long? I said, I'm planning to with some of my new constructions. Hopefully I'll be a little old man or my children will own them. But you can look out that far and know that you're jumping your cash flow in those initial years when a lot of people may be falling backwards. In fact, when we talked about those emotional markets where people bought higher end properties because they looked good and they felt good to walk through, and then all of a sudden they're bleeding month in, month out for a year, two years, three years. That's when they're ready to wave the white flag. We find with our model, with getting that rate really low, we're accentuating the cash flow forward those first few years, Keith, so they're ready to keep going after a few years, instead of raise the white flag. Keith Weinhold 31:41 Yeah, when we think about how you're helping investors here while moving product at the same time, the number of problems that are solved are remarkable because you're solving the higher mortgage rate problem by buying down the rates. You've got a low rate, you've got a low insurance premium, you as the investor are almost certainly going to have low maintenance and repair costs since it's new build. And what else do you do when it's new build? The tenant, when they move in, they're the first person that's ever lived in that property, which probably means they're going to have a longer tenancy duration, because it's hard to move up and move into something better than the product you're offering, especially with low affordability for first time homebuyers. In fact, tell us about your average tenancy duration Jim Sheils 32:21 yeah. So as you know, Keith, I did a ton of fixer uppers. First 15 years of my career, I wore that rehab badge on my shoulder with pride. I loved rehab and old houses. And look, that's great. That's a great way to get going. But I transitioned into new construction a decade ago, and so we've been able to do a lot of comparisons. And you know, back in the day, when I was fixing up lots of properties and renting them out, the older properties, my average tenant would stay about 13 months. It was a little over a year, get them for a year, and then there was move. But that was the average 13 months. Looking back now, and we've been doing this almost a decade. When you look at our new construction model, that went from an average of about 13 months to just over three years with our new construction product. So as you know, if all of a sudden we're pushing back that first move out from a year or 13 months to over three years, that's a tremendous way again to get the right footing and directional on your investment. So that was a really pleasant surprise. I did not expect going to new construction, but jumping from a year to three years has been a nice surprise. Keith Weinhold 33:24 This brings to mind for you as a passive investor, it's sort of analogous to buying an existing business or starting a new one from scratch yourself, whether it's a rental car company or a tomato farm. You know, a lot of people wouldn't think about getting into business, they think about buying their own business, starting it from scratch, and that's really difficult to do when you're an investor. This way, you're not doing a fix and flip yourself, which is analogous to starting your own business from scratch. You get to buy someone's existing business. You're buying an existing property, a new build one, in this case, and that way you can look at all the financials already and have it be done for you in that all done for you sort of way, just like it is here. Well, Jim, do you have any last thoughts about the Florida real estate market today, especially with the lucrative product type that you're offering to investors? Jim Sheils 34:16 I would just remind people do your homework, because there's apples and there's oranges, and you gotta compare the two, and you have to do the homework on which segment of the market is healthy and which one is not. I wouldn't recommend you invest in the unhealthy segment of the market, but look where the fundamentals are working. And go back to that term, a house is worth what it can rent for. And if you can look at that, and also couple with stability of new construction, this is where we've seen ourselves make the most money most success with the least amount of time for our investors. So I highly encourage that recipe for anyone out there. Keith Weinhold 34:53 In addition to being a builder, Jim's company also holds properties under management. For investors, just like you, they offer that for you. For the long term, they have over 1000 current investors, many of them are GRE listeners. You can learn more about the provider at GRE marketplace under Florida statewide, but to get a free strategy session about the latest in what they have for available inventory, and also to compare this provider to other providers, the highest flex, the highest ROI move that you can make yourself as the listener for your due diligence is to connect with a GRE investment coach. It's free at GRE investment coach.com, oh, it's been valuable. Jim, thanks for coming onto the show. Jim Sheils 35:38 Thanks for having me. Keith. Keith Weinhold 35:46 Oh, yeah, hearing it straight from a builder today. And you know, a lot of builders create these nice looking, emotional Type homes, the same ones that appeal to owner occupants. They build those higher end homes because they create more builder profit. Well, that's the segment that has become overbuilt today, this build to rent provider we're talking about here is dealing with a public that reads these articles about the Florida slowdown, though things are still good in this workforce housing market. Well, because the public reads headlines, this builder still has to step in with incentives. So really, this is a case study on what a home builder needs to do to adjust to public perception more so than the reality. That's why Jim and his company keep building when others are they keep building because they keep selling to savvy investors, including you, the GRE listener, conversely, the overbuilt emotional market segment, that's where Florida single family home prices are often about 500k or more, and many of them have stopped building. It's that here, with this workforce housing, brand new, single family rentals sell for the high 200k to 300k range in the three hundreds and duplexes in the four hundreds. We've been working with this provider for nearly a decade, and I've asked them, what can you do for GRE listeners? And these are the best incentives yet, is they basically are making discounts in your favor to deal with this public perception. And they are an interest rate buy down that they make for you, like we mentioned, currently to five and one quarter percent. They're also giving GRE listeners two years of free property management, a rental Protection Program, a six month eviction guarantee and a 210 builder warranty. When you see a builder warranty expressed that way, that means they cover two years on the small stuff, 10 years on the big stuff. The latest pro forma that I saw for their single family rentals had a purchase price of 325k and a cash on cash return of nearly 7% when you include all those generous incentives. So if you're looking for a new market to expand into the time and place could very well be here and now, some people wait for blue sky and everything to be perfect before they act well, that never happens. This is about as close as you'll get today. You'll either keep what you've got or change what you're doing here, Jerry, we constantly shop the nation for you. Our coaches help show you where those deals are that they found. And this is a potential opportunity. Here you can get on the calendar of one of our investment coaches for free. And if you like, start by asking about Florida new build property with all the incentives that you heard about here on GRE podcast, 564 at GRE investment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 4 39:09 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold 39:32 You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is. The Golden Age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866 Keith Weinhold 40:48 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com
We interrupt our series on AI to bring you an important episode on an opportunity we have been waiting years for. We pack a lot into this 12 minute episode, including what signs we should be looking for, what signs we already have, and how to play what could just be a very unconventional run up in base metals of all places. Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Recent events have made it increasingly clear that India is utterly alone. I call this the Abhimanyu Syndrome, in honor of the teenaged Abhimanyu, who only knew how to enter the impregnable Chakravyuha, and who was then murdered, alone, against all Dharmic principles, by several powerful Maharathis.India's possible rise as an economic and military power is being resisted tooth and nail by the incumbent major powers. This is natural: all 'insurgent' powers face this problem. India's rise will need some paradigm shifts, which may or may not happen.China's rise was helped by two things: an industrial policy and inadvertent help by the US's managers and Wall Street who were seduced by the short-term appeal of the lower-cost 'China price'.The ruthless industrial policy is a result of China's civil services being full of engineers who understand the near term. In the long run, it may or may not succeed because of second-order effects such as population implosion, environmental ruin and skewed investment decisions.The US is now facing decline (and the EU has already begun a steep decline) for a variety of reasons, including natural cycles and the loss of comparative advantage in weaponry.In this context, I wish I knew what paradigm shift, if any, will propel India to a G3 slot, but the general global churn, new technologies, etc might create an opportunity. In the meantime, India has to struggle alone, against a mass of hostile powers.I read an article in a Sri Lankan newspaper that painted India as a tyrant, but China as a benevolent friend dispensing largesse. Yes, the same China that has grabbed Hambantota! And it called for a new SAARC, one minus India. This is the kind of propaganda that China and Pakistan are rolling out in the Indian subcontinent.China has every reason to want to kneecap India, the only Asian power that can (and hopefully will) challenge its hegemonistic pretensions. Even the US doesn't: Obama anointed China as the guardian/manager, if not owner, of 'South Asia'. Spheres of influence, you see.The US, in general, has been a disappointment. Many Indians expected, after Biden's antics with Yunus in Bangladesh, that Trump would be more in tune with Indian interests, partly because the US and India both need to keep China in check, and Trump wants to move more manufacturing out of China.But that has clearly not happened. Instead, India has been in Trump's gunsights over trade (although India's surplus is small, and agricultural items that the US wants to sell are a serious no-no for India). Their embrace of Pakistan during and after Operation Sindoor has been inexplicable unless Trump has adopted pure Deepstate policy.India cannot be a Chinese vassal (although it is in BRICS) and it doesn't want to be an American vassal though it's in the Quad (its ties with Russia and strategic autonomy are too important). Thus India is squeezed; for instance, the recent threat by some NATO muckity-muck to impose Russia-related sanctions was sinister.This could be both good and bad. Let's face it, nobody likes a rising power (see Thucydides Trap). While the Sri Lankan paper glorifies China, let us remember that China has territorial disputes with literally every one of its neighbors, and most of ASEAN is deathly scared of them. That comes from hard power. If SAARC or G20 or somebody is worried about India, that is a good sign that home-grown military power is noticeable.Everyone complains that India is not loyal to them. BRICS boosters grumble that India is a Western ‘mole' that is preventing them from toppling the dollar and making the US irrelevant. Conversely, the Anglosphere complains that India is not sufficiently committed to them, as in not toeing their Ukraine line. This is as it should be: multi-alignment means India is not beholden to anybody, but will pursue its selfish interests first and foremost.This is qualitatively different from the late lamented ‘non-alignment' of Nehruvian days, which meant everybody disliked India for its moral posturing. Multi-alignment means India will engage with everybody, on its own terms. With the US, for technology and trade. With Russia, for weapons and oil. Even with China, despite China being India's staunchest enemy, for electronic components. And even with perfidious Britain, as in the just-concluded FTA, which I personally consider pointless.Thus the splendid isolation is a back-handed compliment: the rest of the world is anticipating the rise of India as a superpower; and superpowers have no friends, only interests. And remember, Abhimanyu died, yes, but his side won overwhelmingly.780 words, 22 Jul 2025 updated 25 Jul 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe
This is not about working at your passions, or as my Dad, Dan Miller was famous for, finding the work you love. This is more about the tasks and activities you are engaging with in whatever work you are doing. Think about it like a football team. They are all playing football but they aren't all playing the same position. So in the daily work you do, what position most excites you? What role are you most suited to fulfill? You could be working in a field that is a perfect fit for you, but you are in a role that is not. Conversely you could be working in a field you care nothing for, but in a role that is perfect for you. I'm bringing back a conversation I had with Jonathan Fields, host of the incredibly popular podcast, the Good Life Project. I've had Jonathan on my podcast multiple times and I just so appreciate his spirit and energy. He developed a test of sorts that will help you know what work role fits you best. Where you will be most inspired, or as he calls it, what sparks you? It's free as well. Go to sparketype.com. As an example, my primary sparketype is Maker. I like to…make things. Build things. And while I build some physical things, most of my spark is in relation to building ideas. My second sparketype is Scientist, which is coming up with ways to make the idea happen. It then showcases what is not, my sparketype. This is not an excuse of what to do and what not to do, but to show you where you are best suited. For me, I continually strive to remain in the roles where I'm sparked, and delegate the other areas of my work to people who are sparked in them, and do a far greater and more efficient job. Again, you can take the test for free at sparketype.com and connect with Jonathan Fields at his podcast, the Good Life Project. Sign up for your $1/month trial period at shopify.com/kevin Go to shipstation.com and use code KEVIN to start your free trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Send us a texta link to my web page https://www.bookclues.comA link to 4PM Media https://4pmmedia.com/What happens when God breaks out of the church walls we've confined Him to? Author Philip Martin invites us into this provocative question through his collection of Catholic short stories titled "Ephaphatha" – an Aramaic word meaning "be opened."Martin weaves together elements of Southern Gothic and magical realism to create stories where divine mercy and justice intersect with everyday life. Drawing from his experience as a Catholic theology teacher, he understands that while truth may be black and white, people are wonderfully complex. This complexity demands more than simple doctrinal statements – it requires stories that speak to the heart."Falsehood is not attractive," Martin observes during our conversation. "It might be comfortable, but it's not attractive." This insight drives his storytelling approach, one that recognizes today's young people as "fertile soil" thirsting for authentic truth rather than comfortable lies. Through tales of hands breaking through church walls, mysterious healings, and unexpected divine encounters, Martin creates narrative spaces where readers can experience what happens when God refuses to stay confined to Sunday mornings.The discussion extends beyond literature to explore the interconnection between truth, beauty, and goodness – transcendental qualities that have traditionally guided Christian understanding of reality. When truth is abandoned, beauty inevitably suffers as well. Conversely, beauty can serve as a powerful pathway back to truth, making aesthetically rich storytelling a particularly effective evangelistic tool in our visually-oriented culture.Listen now to discover how Catholic fiction speaks to modern hearts and minds through the timeless power of story. Whether you're interested in faith, literature, or simply compelling narratives, this conversation offers fresh perspectives on how stories can transform lives in ways straightforward facts never could.
Keith highlights the decline in college town real estate due to demographic changes and reduced international student enrollment. The national housing market is moving towards balance, with 4.6 months of resale supply and 9.8 months of new build supply. Commercial real expert and fellow podcast host, Hannah Hammond, joins Keith to discuss how the state of the real estate market is facing a $1 trillion debt reset in 2025, potentially causing distress and foreclosures, particularly in the Sun Belt states. Resources: Follow Hannah on Instagram Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/563 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, are college towns doomed. There's a noticeably higher supply of real estate on the market. Today is get rich education. America's number one real estate investing show. Then how much worse will the Apartment Building Loan implosions get today? On get rich education. Speaker 1 0:27 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Corey Coates 1:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold 1:28 Welcome to GRE from Orchard Park, New York to port orchard, Washington and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. How most people set up their life is that they have a job or an income producing activity, and they put that first, then they try to build whatever life they have left around that job. Instead, you are in control of your life when you first ask yourself, what kind of lifestyle Am I trying to build? And then you determine your job based on that. That is lifestyle design, and that is financial freedom, most people, including me, at one time. And probably you get that wrong and put the job first. And then we need to reverse it once you realize that, you discover that you found yourself so far out of position that you try to find your way back by putting your own freedom, autonomy and free agency first. There you are lying on the ground, supine, feeling overwhelmed, asking yourself why you didn't put yourself first. Then what I'm helping you do here is get up and change that by moving your active income over to relatively passive income, and doing it through the most generationally proven vehicle of them all, real estate investing for income. We are not talking about a strategy that didn't exist three years ago and won't exist three years from now. It is proven over time, and there's nothing avant garde or esoteric here, and you can find yourself in a financially free position within five years of starting to gradually shift that active income over to passive income. Keith Weinhold 3:29 Now, when it comes to today's era of long term real estate investing, we are in the midst of a real estate market that I would describe as slow and flat. Both home price appreciation and rent growth are slow. Overall real estate sales volume is still suppressed. It that sales volume had its recent peak of six and a half million homes moved in 2021 which was a wild market, it was too brisk and annual sales volume is down to just 4 million. Today, more inventory is accumulating, which is both a good news and a bad news story. I'm going to get to this state of the overall market shortly. First, let's discuss real estate market niches, a particular niche, because two weeks ago, I discussed the short term rental arms race. Last week, beach towns and this week, in the third of three installments of real estate market niches are college towns doomed? Does it still make sense to invest in college town real estate? Perhaps a year ago on the show, you'll remember that I informed you that a college closes every single week in the United States. Gosh, universities face an increasingly tough demographic backdrop ahead. We know more and more people get a free education. Education online. Up until now, universities have tapped a growing high school age population in this seemingly bottomless well of international students wanting to study in the US. But America's largest ever birth cohort, which was 4.3 million in 2007 is now waning. Yeah, that's how many Americans were born in 2007 and that was the all time record birth year. Well, all those people turn 18 years old this year. This, therefore, is an unavoidable decline in the pool of potential incoming college freshmen from the United States. And on top of that, the real potential of fewer international students coming to the US to study adds to the concern for colleges. This is due to the effects and the wishes of the Trump administration. It already feels like a depression in some college towns now among metro areas that are especially reliant on higher education, three quarters of them suffered weaker economic growth over the past 12 years than the US has as a whole. That's according to a study at Brookings Metro. They're a non profit think tank in DC, all right, and in the prior decade, all right, previous to that, most of those same metros grew faster than the nation did. If this was really interesting, a recent Wall Street Journal article focused on Western Illinois University in McComb Illinois as being symbolic of this trend, where an empty dorm that once held 800 students has now been converted to a police training ground, it's totally different, where there are active shooter drills and all this overturned furniture rubber tipped bullets and paintball casings, you've got to repurpose some of these old dorms. Nearby dorms have been flattened and they're now weedy fields. Two more dorms are set to close this summer. Frat houses and homes once filled with student renters are now empty lots city streets used to be so crowded during the semester that cars moved at a crawl. That's not happening anymore. It's almost like you're watching the town die, said a resident who was born in Macomb and worked 28 years for the Western Illinois Campus Police Department. Macomb, Illinois is at the heart of a new rust belt across the US colleges are faltering, and so are the once booming towns and economies around them. Enrollment is down at a lot of the nation's public colleges and universities starting next year due to demographics like I mentioned, there will be fewer high school graduates for the foreseeable future, and the fallout extends to downtown McComb. It's punishing local businesses. There's this multiplier effect that's diminishing. It's not multiplying for generations. Colleges around the US fueled local economies, created jobs and brought in students and their visiting families to shop and spend and growing student enrollment fattened school budgets, and that used to free universities from having to worry about inefficiencies or cutting costs. But the student boom has ended, and college towns are suffering. And what are some of the other reasons for these doomed college towns? Well, first, a lot of Americans stopped having babies after the global financial crisis, you've got a strong dollar and an anti foreigner administration that's likely to push international student numbers down on top of this, and then, thirdly, US students are more skeptical of incurring these large amounts of debt for college and then, universities have been increasing administrative costs and tuition above the rate of inflation, and they've been doing that for decades. Tuition and operating costs are detached from reality, and in some places, student housing is still being built like the gravy train is not going to end. I don't see how this ends well for many of these universities or for student housing, so you've really got to think deeply about investing in college town housing anymore. Where I went to college, in Pennsylvania, that university is still open, but their enrollment numbers are down, and they've already closed and consolidated a number of their outlying branch campuses. Now it's important notice that I'm focused on college towns, okay, I'm talking about generally, these small. Smaller, outlying places that are highly dependent on colleges for their vibrancy. By the way, Pennsylvania has a ton of them, all these little colleges, where it seems like every highway exit has the name of some university on it. That is starting to change now. Keith Weinhold 10:21 Conversely, take a big city like Philadelphia that has a ton of colleges, Temple University, Penn, which is the Ivy League school, St Joseph's, Drexel LaSalle, Bryn Mawr, Thomas Jefferson, Villanova. All these colleges are in the Philly Metro, and some of them are pretty big. Well, you can be better off investing in a Philly because Philly is huge, 6 million people in the metro, and there's plenty of other activity there that can absorb any decline in college enrollment. So understand it's the smaller college town that's in big trouble. And I do like to answer the question directly, are college towns doomed? Yes, some are. And perhaps a better overall answer than saying that college towns are doomed, is college towns have peaked. They've hit their peak and are going down. Keith Weinhold 11:23 Let's talk about the direction of the overall housing market now, including some lessons where, even if you're listening 10 years from now, you're going to gain some key learning. So we look at the national housing market. There is finally some buyer selection again, resale housing supply is growing. I'm talking overall now, not about the college towns. Back in 2022, nearly every major metro could be considered not just a seller's market, but a strong seller's market. And it was too much. It was wild. Three years ago, buyers had to, oftentimes offer more than the asking price, pay all cash. Buyers had to waive contingencies, forgo inspections, and they had to compete with dozens of bidders. I mean, even if you got a home inspection, you pray that the home inspector didn't find anything worse than like charming vintage wiring, because you might have been afraid to ask for some repairs of the seller, and that's because the market was so hot and competitive that you might lose the deal. Fast forward to today, and fewer markets Hold that strong seller's market status. More metros have adequate inventory. And if you're one of our newsletter subscribers, you saw that last week, I sent you a great set of maps that show this. As you probably know, six months of housing supply is deemed as the balance point between buyers and sellers over six months favors buyers under six favors sellers. All right, so let's see where we are now. And by the way, months of housing supply, that phrase is also known as the absorption rate nationally, 4.6 months of resale supply exists. That's the current level, 4.6 months per the NAR now it bottomed out at a frighteningly low one and a half months of supply back in 2022 and it peaked at 12 full months of supply during the global financial crisis, back in 2010 All right, so these are the amounts of resale housing supply available for sale, and we overbuilt homes back in the global financial crisis, everyday people owned multiple homes 15 years ago because virtually anyone could qualify for a loan with those irresponsible lending standards that existed back in that era. I mean, back then, buyers defaulted on payments and walked away from homes and because they had zero down payment in the home. Well, they had zero skin in the game to protect and again, that peaked at 12 months of supply. Now today, Texas and Florida have temporarily overbuilt pockets that are higher than this 4.6 month national number and of course, we have a lot of markets in the Northeast and Midwest that have less than this supply. But note that 4.6 months is still under six months of supply, still favoring sellers just a little, but today's 4.6 months. I mean, that's getting pretty close to historic norms, close to balance. All right, so where is the best buyer opportunity today? Well, understand that. So far, have you picked up on. This we've looked at existing housing supply levels here, also known as resale homes. The opportunity is in new build homes. What's the supply of new construction homes in the US? And understand for perspective that right now, new build homes comprise about 1/3 of the available housing supply. And this might surprise you, we are now up to 9.8 months of new build housing supply, and that's a number that's risen for two years. That's per the Census Bureau and HUD. A lot of builders, therefore, are getting desperate right now, builders have got to sell. The reason that they're willing to cut you a deal is that, see, builders are paying interest costs and maintenance costs every single day on these nice, brand new homes that are just languishing, just sitting there. Understand something builders don't get the benefit of using a home. Unlike the seller family of a resale or existing home, see that family that has a resale home on the market, they get the benefit of living in it while it's on the market. This 9.8 months of new build supply is why buyers are willing to cut you a deal right now, including builders that we work with here at GRE marketplace. Keith Weinhold 16:30 And we're going to talk to a builder on the show next week and get them to tell us how desperate they are. In fact, it's a Florida builder, and we'll learn about the incentives that they're willing to cut you they're building in one of these oversupplied pockets. So bottom line is that overall, an increasing US housing supply should keep home prices moderating. They're currently up just one to 2% nationally, and more supply means better options for you. Hey, let's talk about this very show that you're listening to, the get rich education podcast. What do you like to do while you're listening to the show? In fact, what are you doing right now while you're listening to the show? Well, in a recent Instagram poll, we asked our audience that very question you told us while listening to the show, 50% of you are commuting, 20% are exercising, 20% are at work, and 10% are doing home chores like cleaning or dishes. Now is this show the number one real estate investing podcast in the United States, we asked chatgpt that very question, and here's how they answered. They said, Excellent question. Real estate investing podcasts have exploded over the past 10 to 12 years, but only a handful have true long term staying power. Here's a list of some of the longest running, consistently active real estate investing podcasts that have built serious legacies. And you know something, we are not number one based on those criteria. This show is ranked number two in the nation. Number one are our friends at the real estate guys radio show hosted by Robert Helms. How many times have I recommended that you go ahead and give them a listen? Of course, I'm just freshly coming off spending nine days with them as one of the faculty members on their summit at sea. Their show started in 1997Yes, on actual radio, before podcasts even existed, and chat GPT goes on to say that they're one of the OGS in the space. It focuses on market cycles, investing strategies and wealth building principles known for its international investor perspective and high profile guests like Robert Kiyosaki. All right, that's what it says about that show. And then rank number two is get rich. Education with me started in 2014 and it goes on to say that this is what the show's about. It says it's real estate centric with a macroeconomic and financial freedom philosophy. It focuses on buy and hold investing, inflation, debt strategy and wealth building. Yeah, that's what it says. And I'd say that's about right? And this next thing is interesting. It describes the host of the show, me as communicating with you in a way that's clear, calm and slightly academic. That's what it says. And yeah, you've got to be clear. Today. There's so much competing for your attention that if I'm not clear with you, then I'm not able to help you calm. Okay? I guess I remain calm. And then finally, slightly academic. I. Hadn't thought about that before. Do you think that I'm slightly academic in my delivery? I guess that's possible. It's appropriate for a show with the word education in our name. I guess it makes sense that I'd be slightly academic. So that fits. I wouldn't want to be heavily academic or just academic, because that could get unrelatable. So there's your answer. The number two show in the nation for real estate investing. Keith Weinhold 20:29 How are things going with your rental properties? Anyway, I had something interesting happen to me here these past few months. Now I have a property manager in one market that manages quite a few of my properties, all these single family homes and I had five perfect months consecutively as a real estate investor. A perfect month means when you have 100% occupancy, 100% rent collection, and zero maintenance or repair costs. Well, this condition went on for five months with every property that they managed. For me, which is great, profitable news, but that's so unusual to have a streak like that, it kind of makes you wonder if something's going wrong. But the streak just ended. Finally, there was a $400 expense on one of these single family homes. Well, this morning, the manager emailed me about something else. One of my tenants leases expires at the end of next month. I mean, that's typical. This is happening all the time with some property, but they suggested raising the rent from $1,700 up to 1725, and I rarely object to what the property manager suggests. I mean, after all, they are the expert in that local market. That's only about a one and a half percent rent increase, kind of slow there. But again, we're in this era where neither home price growth nor rent growth have been exceptional. Keith Weinhold 22:02 I am in upstate Pennsylvania today. This is where I'm from. I'm here for my high school class reunion. And, you know, it's funny, the most interesting people to talk to are usually the people that have moved away from this tiny town in Appalachia, counter sport, Pennsylvania, it's not the classmates that stayed and stuck around there in general are less interesting. And yes, this means I am sleeping in my parents home all week. I know I've shared with you before that Curt and Penny Weinhold have lived in the same home and have had the same phone number since 1974 and I sleep in the same bedroom that I've slept in since I was an infant every time that I visit them. Kind of heartwarming. In a few days, I'm going to do a tour of America's first and oldest pretzel bakery in Lititz, Pennsylvania with my aunts and uncles to review what you've learned so far today, put your life first and then build your income producing activity around that. Many college towns are demographically doomed, and even more, have peaked and are on their way down. Overall American residential real estate supply is up. We're now closer to a balanced market than a seller's market. We've discussed the distress in the five plus unit apartment building space owners and syndicators started having their deals blow up, beginning in 2022 when interest rates spiked on those short term and balloon loans that are synonymous with apartment buildings. When we talked to Ken McElroy about it a few weeks ago on the show, he said that the pain still is not over for apartment building owners. Keith Weinhold 23:51 coming up next, we'll talk about it from a different side, as I'll interview a commercial real estate lender and get her insights. I'll ask her just how bad it will get. And this guest is rather interesting. She's just 29 years old, really bright and articulate, and she founded her own commercial real estate lending firm. She and I recorded this on a cruise ship while we're on the real estate guys Investor Summit at sea a few weeks ago. So you will hear some background noise, you'll get to meet her next I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one. Get rich education podcast episode 563 and you're listening to it. Keith Weinhold 24:31 The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that. Ridge lendinggroup.com, you know what's crazy? Keith Weinhold 25:03 Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund, again, text family to 66866 Caeli Ridge 26:13 this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with key blind holes. And remember, don't quit your Daydream. Keith Weinhold 26:31 Hey, Governor, education nation, Keith Weinhold, here we're on a summit for real estate on a cruise ship, and I'm with Hannah Hammond. She's the founder of HB capital, a commercial real estate lending firm, and the effervescent host of the Hannah Hammond show. Hey, it's great to chat Hannah Hammond 26:48 you too. It's been so great to get to know you on this ship, and it's been a lot of fun, Keith Weinhold 26:51 and we just met at this conference for the first time. Hannah just gave a great, well received presentation on the state of the commercial real estate market. And the most interesting thing, and the thing everyone really wants to know since she lends for five plus unit apartment buildings as well, is about the commercial real estate interest rate resets. Apartment Building values have fallen about 30% nationwide, and that is due to these resetting loans. So tell us about that. Hannah Hammond 27:19 Yeah, so there is a tidal wave of commercial real estate debt coming due in 2025 some of that has already come due, and we've been seeing a lot of the distressed assets start to hit the market in various asset classes, from multifamily, industrial, retail and beyond. And then, as we continue through 2025 more of that title, weight of debt is going to continue to come due, which is estimated to be around $1 trillion of debt. Keith Weinhold 27:44 That's huge. I mean, that is a true tidal wave. So just to pull back really simply, we're talking about maybe an apartment building owner that almost five years ago might have gotten an interest rate at, say, 4% and in today's higher interest rate environment that's due to reset to a higher rate and kill their cash flow and take them out of business. Tell us about that. Hannah Hammond 28:03 Yeah. So a lot of investors got caught up a few years ago when rates were really low, and they bought these assets at very low cap rates, which means very high prices, and they projected, maybe over projected, continuous rent growth, like double digit rent growth, which many markets were seeing a few years back, and that rent growth has actually slowed down tremendously. And so much supply hit the market at the same time, because so much construction was developed a few years back. And so now there's a challenge, because rents have actually dropped. There's an overage of supply. Rates have doubled. You know, people were getting apartment complexes and other assets in the two or 3% interest rate range. Now it's closer to the six to 7% interest rate range, which we all know it just doesn't really make numbers work. Every 1% increase in interest you'd have to have about a 10% drop in value for that monthly payment to be the same. So that's why we're seeing a lot of distress in this market right now, which is bad for the people that are caught up on it, but it's good for those who can have the capital to re enter the market at a lower basis and be able to weather this storm and ride the wave back up Keith Weinhold 29:08 income down, expenses up. Not a very profitable formula. Let's talk more about from this point. How bad can it get? We talked about 1 trillion in loans coming due this calendar year tell us about how bad it might be. Hannah Hammond 29:23 So it's estimated that potentially 25% of that $1 trillion could be in potential distress. And of course, if two $50 billion of commercial real estate hit foreclosure all at the same time, that would be pretty catastrophic, and there would be a massive supply hitting the market, and therefore a massive reduction in property values and prices. And so a lot of lenders have been trying to mitigate the risk of this happening, and all of this distress debt hit the market at one time. And so lenders have been doing loan modifications and loan extensions and the extend and pretend, quote. Has been in play since back in 2025 but a lot of those extensions are coming due. That's why we're feeling a little bit more of a slower bleed in the commercial market. But you know, in the residential market, we're not seeing as much distress, because so many people have those fixed 30 year rates. But in commercial real estate, rates are generally not fixed for that long. They're more they could be floating get or they might only be fixed for five years, and then they've reset. And that's what we're seeing now, is a lot of those assets that were bought within the last five years have those rate caps expiring, and then the rates are jacking it up to six to 7% and the numbers just don't make sense anymore. Keith Weinhold 30:36 That one to four unit space single family homes up fourplexes has stayed relatively stable. We're talking about that distress and the five plus unit multi family apartment space. So Hannah, when we pull back and we look at the lender risk appetite and the propensity to lend and to want to make loans, of course, that environment changes over time. I know that all of us here at the summit, we learn from you in your presentation that that can vary by region in the loan to value ratio and the other terms that they're talking about giving. So tell us about some of the regional variation. Where do people want to lend and where do people want to avoid making loans Hannah Hammond 31:11 Exactly? And we were talking about this is every single region is so different, and there's even micro markets within certain cities and metropolitan areas, and the growth corridors could have a very different outlook and performance than even in the overexposed metro areas. So lenders really pay attention to where the capital is flowing to. And right now, if you look at u haul reports and cell phone data, capital is flowing mostly to the Sun Belt states, and it's leaving the Rust Belt states. So this is your southeast states, your Texas, Florida, Arizona, and these types of regions where a lot of people are leaving some of the Rust Belt states like San Francisco, Chicago, New York, where those markets are being really dragged down by all this office drag from all the default rates in these office buildings that have continued to accumulate post COVID. So the lender appetite is going to shift Market to Market, and they really pay attention to the asset class and also the region in which that asset class is located. And this can affect the LTV, the amount of money that they're going to lend based on the value of the property, also the interest rate and the DSCR ratios, which is how much above the debt coverage the income has to be for the lender to lend on that asset. Keith Weinhold 32:26 So we're talking about lenders more willing to make loans in places where the population is moving to Florida, other markets in the Southeast Texas, Arizona. Is that what we're talking about here. Hannah Hammond 32:37 exactly, and even on the equity side, because we help with equity, like JV equity or CO GP equity, on these development projects or value add projects. And a lot of my equity investors, they're like, Nah, not interested in that state. But if it's in a really good Sunbelt type market, then they have a better appetite to lend in those markets. Keith Weinhold 32:56 Was there any last thing that we should know about the lending environment? Something that impacts the viewers here, maybe something I didn't think about asking you? Hannah Hammond 33:04 I mean, credit is tight, but there's tons of opportunity. Deals are still happening. Cre originations are actually up in 2025 and projected to land quite a bit higher in 2025 at about 660, 5 billion in originations, versus 539 billion in 2024 so the good news is, deals are happening, movements are happening, purchases and sales are happening. And we need movement to have this market continue to be strong and take place, even though, unfortunately, some investors are going to be stuck in that default debt and they might lose on these properties, it's going to give an opportunity for a lot of other investors who have been kind of sitting on the sidelines, saving up capital and aligning their capital to be able to take advantage of these great deals. Because honestly, we all know it's been really hard to make deals pencil over the past few years, and now with some of this reset, it's going to be a little bit easier to make them pencil. Keith Weinhold 33:04 This is great. Loans are leverage, compound leverage, trunks, compound interest, leverage and loans are really key to you making more of yourself. Anna, if someone wants to learn more about following you and what you do, what's the best way for them to do that? Hannah Hammond 33:42 At Hannah B Hammond on Instagram, my show, the Hannah Hammond show, is also on all platforms, YouTube, Instagram, Spotify, Apple, and if you shoot me a follow and a message on Instagram, I will personally respond to and would love to stay connected and help with any questions you have in the commercial real estate market. Keith Weinhold 34:27 Hannah's got a great presence, and she's great in person too. Go ahead and be sure to give her a follow. We'll see you next time. Thank you. Keith Weinhold 34:40 Yeah. Sharp insight from Hannah Hammond, there $1 trillion in commercial real estate debt comes due this year. A quarter of that amount, $250 billion is estimated to be in distress or default. This could keep the values of larger apartment buildings suppressed. Even longer, as far as where today's opportunity is, next week on the show, we'll talk to a home builder in Florida, ground zero for an overbuilt market, and we'll see if we can sense the palpable desperation that they have to move their properties and what kind of deals they're giving buyers. Now until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, do the right thing before you do things right out there, and don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 3 35:33 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold 35:56 You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866, Keith Weinhold 37:12 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.
//The Wire//2100Z July 21, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MAJOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT IN TIBET. ALASKA AIRLINES SUFFERS IT OUTAGE, GROUNDING ALL FLIGHTS SUNDAY EVENING.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Central Asia: Over the weekend, Chinese authorities began construction on a major hydroelectric power plant in a remote region of Tibet. Groundbreaking ceremonies were held at a site adjacent to the future Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Power Plant in Nyingchi. This project is scheduled to be completed by 2033, and for comparison will allegedly be roughly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam project.-HomeFront-Washington: Sunday evening an IT outage resulted in all Alaska Airlines aircraft being grounded for several hours. Roughly 150 flights were canceled as a result of the outage, and airline representatives have warned of future disruptions due to malfunctioning equipment. So far no cause for the outage has been disclosed, beyond general comments of unspecified equipment failure.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: As with most Chinese industrial projects, the scale of the hydroelectric project in Tibet is impressive. However in this case, they are attempting to build the largest hydroelectric power plant in human history...directly in the middle of a region legendary for extreme seismic activity. More broadly however, there are mitigating factors which complicate this seemingly glaring mistake.As the dam will also be built over a river that flows into India, various concerns are present regarding restricting the flow of water into India. Conversely, since India will be the primary customer of the electricity, these concerns will likely waver over time due to India's extremely poor infrastructure. In short, China knows that India is desperate for electricity, so China is going to dam up a river on the Indian border and use what would have been India's own river to produce electricity to sell back to them. Consequently, since this power plant will be used to provide electricity for export, CCP officials probably don't care as much about the national security risks when/if the plant gets destroyed due to an earthquake or due to combat action.Considering that this dam can also be used to halt the flow of water into India, this dam highlights the often forgotten detail that the People's Republic of China rarely does anything that does not also have military value. The Yarlung Tsangpo River (which is known as the Brahmaputra River in India) accounts for roughly 7% of all of the freshwater supply in India (at least, according to the Indian government). This means that China can quite literally turn the screws on India, and apply pressure to their BRICS partner as necessary. Indian leadership, only interested in short-term gains (and cheap electricity), have either forgotten that there's no such thing as a free lunch and/or are so desperate to keep their failing electrical grid from outright collapse that they don't care about the potential military impacts that will occur in a decade when the plant comes online.Analyst: S2A1Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground//END REPORT//
We're back from our (unplanned, sorry!!) break with a big one. Lena Dunham has returned to television with a Netflix series that many online are claiming to be as good as - or even better than - Girls, the much lauded HBO show that launched her career. Conversely, critics are writing scathing reviews for broadsheets about the portrayal of romance, women and London in the show. But which is it? And are our hosts impressed with the Megan Stalter fronted romcom?This week, Ione and Gina get to grips with whether Too Much is hot or a flop: exploring the representation of class dynamics, the acclaim the series is receiving for fat representation, and questioning why Jess, the show's lead, has absolutely zero mates.Support our work and become a Polyester Podcast member
AI is no longer a question of "if". You know this now. So what are you going to do about it? There are two very obvious roads to take here, and one of them is very dark and something I wouldn't recommend. Let's talk about what I do recommend. Because there is good news here. VERY good news. "Planting Bamboo" Episode - https://youtu.be/QElrQZc4Nl0 AI Jobs Video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO1xUwJLAxQ Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Possibly the most important episode we have done to date. Do you guys know the story? You will today, and your survival likely depends on it. #TradingPsychology Maverick Links Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Forex Trading: URL: https://maverickfx.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=vpyt Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Currencies: URL: https://maverickcurrencies.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=VPPodPsych Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Trading's Stock/Options Division: URL: https://mavericktrading.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=VPPodPsych Maverick Trading YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@mavericktrading Robb's Flat Earth Trading Society https://www.youtube.com/@FlatEarthTradingSociety No Nonsense Forex Links VP's Trading Psychology Book https://nononsenseforex.com/forex-psychology-book/ Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (Bonus and Contest Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X The hosts of this podcast are not licensed financial advisors, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading anything involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.
I was doing some research yesterday, and I stumbled on something that's been staring me in the face for decades. It's a “formula” that TAXI's most successful members use. Especially, the members who want to earn income with sync placements. Conversely, when I researched TAXI's least successful members, I discovered that virtually none of them used the same formula. Why wouldn't they, when it obviously works?! Frustrated? Are you frustrated that you're not getting forwards, deals, and sync placements? Are you getting some, but you'd like to get more? In both cases, I found hard evidence that there are three things you can do that will stop you from killing your own sync career. I'm going to disclose that evidence on today's episode of TAXI TV. Bonus Career-Saver! I also uncovered another mistake that even our successful members make, and it's sort of a time bomb that doesn't blow up in your face until way after the damage is done. Hopefully, I can save some careers by disclosing that mistake on today's show.
Garth Heckman The David Alliance TDAgiantSlayer@Gmail.com What do you love the most? A certain type of food? Your spouses hips or lips? Your job? The money you make? Your biceps? Your ministry? Your 1953 corvette? Your brand-new Mercedes? Your girlfriend? Alcohol? Drugs? Your phone? Or maybe it is far worse than that? Maybe you are in love with…. Thats where we are going today! What are you in love with… a lot of answers come to mind… but I believe they all stem from one basic foundation. We love to be approved by others. We love others approval. And we are willing to do just about anything to get it. The approval of other people is so important to most because it's deeply rooted in fundamental human psychological and evolutionary needs. Here's a breakdown of the key reasons: 1. Evolutionary and Survival Instincts: Historical Necessity: For much of human history, belonging to a group or tribe was essential for survival. Being accepted meant access to resources, protection from threats, and the ability to find a mate and raise offspring. Rejection from the group could be a death sentence. This deep-seated fear of rejection and need for acceptance has been passed down through generations. Social Connection: Humans are inherently social creatures. Our brains are wired for connection, and social interaction plays a crucial role in our well-being. Approval from others reinforces our sense of belonging and validates our place within a community. 2. Psychological Needs: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs: The need for belongingness and love, and then esteem, are fundamental human needs in Maslow's hierarchy, ranking above basic physiological and safety needs. Approval from others contributes directly to these levels, making us feel loved, accepted, and valued. Self-Esteem and Self-Worth: For many, external validation acts as a mirror, reflecting back a sense of their own worth. When we receive approval, compliments, or praise, it can boost our confidence and reaffirm our abilities. Conversely, a lack of approval or criticism can lead to feelings of inadequacy and low self-esteem. Fear of Rejection and Judgment: This is a powerful motivator. Many people seek approval to avoid the pain of being rejected, criticized, or judged. This fear can stem from childhood experiences where acceptance felt conditional. Dopamine Release: Receiving external validation, like likes on social media or compliments, can trigger the release of dopamine, a "feel-good" neurotransmitter in the brain. This creates a temporary sense of pleasure and satisfaction, which can lead to a desire to repeat behaviors that elicit this response. Social Comparison: We often compare ourselves to others to gauge our own performance, appearance, and social standing. Seeking approval can be a way to ensure we measure up favorably in these comparisons. 3. Childhood Experiences: Early Conditioning: Our early experiences, particularly with caregivers, heavily influence our need for approval. Children who receive consistent approval and validation tend to develop a stronger internal sense of self-worth. Those who experience neglect, criticism, or conditional acceptance may grow up with a persistent need for external validation. Learning Behavior: As children, we naturally look to our parents for recognition and validation when we accomplish something. This teaches us that external feedback is a way to understand if we've done "a good thing." 4. Societal and Cultural Factors: Social Norms: Society often has unspoken rules and expectations. Conforming to these norms can lead to increased social acceptance. Deviating from them can result in social exclusion. Social Media: The digital age has intensified the pursuit of approval. Platforms that revolve around "likes," "shares," and comments provide constant opportunities for external validation, which can become addictive and lead to an unhealthy reliance on others' opinions for self-worth. Botton line is this - you seek peoples approval because you don't know you you have Gods approval. Look one of my favorite memories is competing as a powerlifter and pulling 670 in Masters division one - it was a grind… drug free, no suit, just me and the iron - and when I was done I had Donnie Thompson who was at the judges table taking numbers call me over and tell me that it was a great lift. Donnie thompson is on the mount Rushmore of powerlifters. The first one ever to hit a 3000 pound total. When he says Great lift - it doens't really matter what anyone else thinks. He is the king of powerlifting. Well we serve another king who is the King of the world, the universe… and when we know we have his approval - nothing else matters. Galatians 1:10 Obviously, I'm not trying to win the approval of people, but of God. If pleasing people were my goal, I would not be Christ's servant. OOOHhhhh this is sooo good. Did you catch it? You serve the one who's approval you seek. So whomever you are hoping to be approved by - you will do whatever it takes to show them you are their servant. The world loves suckers like you. I live my life on one simple rule… If I know my relationship with God is good… then I don't give two cats meows about what anyone else thinks about me, what I do, what I say, where I go, what I believe in, what I stand for or what I preach or post on social media. I don't care - because God approves of me. How do you know God approves of you? Well you don't earn it. You don't have to be special, you don't have to be good enough… you simply trust in his grace and his work on the cross. And here is the real secret, when you know you have Gods approval, you are free to be exactly who he created you to be.
Thank you for joining us for Christian Faith Center's Sermon of the week. This message is from our Nampa Location. Pastor Mike Trenton continues our message series "DavidWhen you think about the wrong things, your life goes wrong. Conversely, when you think about the right things your life goes right. If you want to discover a good idea, you have to look for it. If you want to improve your thinking, you have to work at it. When you tap into the thoughts of God and make them your own, your potential is unlimited. David had a miracle mentality. He didn't see himself as a victim and so he didn't act like one!
Sal Licata, with his characteristic intensity, breaks down the first-half performances of the New York Mets and Yankees. He emphatically awards the Mets an "A" grade, citing their ability to overcome significant injuries and exceeding pre-season expectations, especially in a division where the Braves have faltered. Conversely, Licata hands the Yankees a "B," expressing frustration with their inconsistency, questionable lineup decisions, and defensive lapses, despite their strong roster. He criticizes their failure to meet higher expectations and highlights specific player underperformances, particularly Anthony Volpe's defensive struggles and Juan Soto's woes with runners in scoring position for the Mets.
Sal Licata dives into the first-half performances of the New York Mets and Yankees, delivering his fiery grades and sharp analysis. He commends the Mets with an "A" for exceeding expectations, overcoming injuries, and positioning themselves as serious NL East contenders, just a half-game behind the Phillies. Conversely, Licata hands the Yankees a "B," citing their inconsistent offense, defensive lapses at shortstop, and a convoluted lineup. He highlights the Yankees' need for a third baseman and bullpen help, while the Mets are poised to be aggressive at the trade deadline to bolster their World Series aspirations.
Jesse Lee, also known as Boss Lee, explains the necessity of three distinct types of people—haters, naysayers, and lovers—for achieving success in life and business. She argues that haters provide free marketing and publicity, often inadvertently driving more attention and followers to one's endeavors, as illustrated by her personal anecdotes of profiting from public criticism. Naysayers, frequently close friends or family, are characterized as people who, despite good intentions, subtly undermine ambitions by encouraging mediocrity, often projecting their own unfulfilled desires. Conversely, lovers offer vital emotional support and boost confidence, though their financial impact may be less direct than that of haters. Lee emphasizes that embracing and understanding the role of all three groups is crucial for a rich and impactful life, urging listeners not to fear criticism but to view it as a catalyst for growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Gee I dunno, what happens when huge countries pile into limited resources all at once (Gold, Bitcoin)?? Price goes way up, every time. It's happening again, to two other resources right now -- and it's not too late for you to get in. Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Welcome or welcome back to Authentically ADHD, the podcast where we embrace the chaos and magic of the ADHD brain. Im carmen and today we're diving into a topic that's as complex as my filing system (which is to say, very): ADHD and its common co-occurring mood and learning disorders. Fasten your seatbelts (and if you're like me, try not to get distracted by the shiny window view) – we're talking anxiety, depression, OCD, dyslexia, dyscalculia, and bipolar disorder, all hanging out with ADHD.Why cover this? Because ADHD rarely rides solo. In fact, research compiled by Dr. Russell Barkley finds that over 80% of children and adults with ADHD have at least one other psychiatric disorder, and more than half have two or more coexisting conditions. Two-thirds of folks with ADHD have at least one coexisting condition, and often the classic ADHD symptoms (you know, fidgeting, daydreaming, “Did I leave the stove on?” moments) can overshadow those other disorders. It's like ADHD is the friend who talks so loud at the party that you don't notice the quieter buddies (like anxiety or dyslexia) tagging along in the background.But we're going to notice them today. With a blend of humor, sass, and solid neuroscience (yes, we can be funny and scientific – ask me how I know!), we'll explore how each of these conditions shows up alongside ADHD. We'll talk about how they can be misdiagnosed or missed entirely, and—most importantly—we'll dish out strategies to tell them apart and tackle both. Knowledge is power and self-awareness is the key, especially when it comes to untangling ADHD's web of quirks and comrades in chaos. So, let's get into it!ADHD and Anxiety: Double Trouble in OverdriveLet's start with anxiety, ADHD's frequent (and frantic) companion. Ever had your brain ping-pong between “I can't focus on this work” and “I'm so worried I'll mess it up”? That's ADHD and anxiety playing tango in your head. It's a double whammy: ADHD makes it hard to concentrate, and anxiety cranks up the worry about consequences. As one study notes, about 2 in 5 children with ADHD have significant problems with anxiety, and over half of adults with ADHD do as well. In other words, if you have ADHD and feel like a nervous wreck half the time, you're not alone – you're in very good (and jittery) company.ADHD and anxiety can look a lot alike on the surface. Both can make you restless, unfocused, and irritable. I mean, is it ADHD distractibility or am I just too busy worrying about everything to pay attention? (Hint: it can be both.) Especially for women, ADHD is often overlooked and mislabeled as anxiety. Picture a girl who can't concentrate in class: if she's constantly daydreaming and fidgety, one teacher calls it ADHD. Another sees a quiet, overwhelmed student and calls it anxiety. Same behavior, different labels. Women in particular have had their ADHD misdiagnosed as anxiety or mood issues for years, partly because anxious females tend to internalize symptoms (less hyperactive, more “worrier”), and that masks the ADHD beneath.So how do we tell ADHD and anxiety apart? One clue is where the distraction comes from. ADHD is like having 100 TV channels in your brain and someone else is holding the remote – your attention just flips on its own. Anxiety, on the other hand, is like one channel stuck on a horror movie; you can't focus on other things because a worry (or ten) is running on repeat. An adult with ADHD might forget a work deadline because, well, ADHD. An adult with anxiety might miss the deadline because they were paralyzed worrying about being perfect. Both end up missing the deadline (relatable – ask me how I know), but for different reasons.Neuroscience is starting to unravel this knot. There's evidence of a genetic link between ADHD and anxiety – the two often run in the family together. In brain studies, both conditions involve irregularities in the prefrontal cortex (the brain's command center for focus and planning) and the limbic system (emotion center). Essentially, if your brain were a car, ADHD means the brakes (inhibition) are a bit loose, and anxiety means the alarm system is hyper-sensitive. Combine loose brakes with a blaring alarm and you get… well, us. Fun times, right?Here's an interesting tidbit: Females with ADHD are more likely to report anxiety than males. Some experts think this is partly due to underdiagnosed ADHD – many girls grew up being told they were just “worrywarts” when in fact ADHD was lurking underneath, making everyday life more overwhelming and thus feeding anxiety. As Dr. Thomas Brown (a top ADHD expert) points out, emotional regulation difficulties (like chronic stress or worry) are characteristic of ADHD, even though they're not in the official DSM checklist. Our ADHD brains can amplify emotions – so a normal worry for someone else becomes a five-alarm fire for us.Now, action time: How do we manage this dynamic duo? The first step is getting the right diagnosis. A clinician should untangle whether symptoms like trouble concentrating are from anxiety, ADHD, or both. They might ask: Have you always had concentration issues (pointing to ADHD), or did they start when your anxiety kicked into high gear? Also, consider context – ADHD symptoms occur in most settings (school, work, home), while pure anxiety might spike in specific situations (say, social anxiety in crowds, or panic attacks only under stress).Treatment has to tackle both. Therapy – especially Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) – is a rockstar here. CBT can teach you skills to manage worry (hello, deep breathing and logical rebuttals to “what if” thoughts) and also help with ADHD organization hacks (like breaking tasks down, creating routines). Many find that medication is needed for one or both conditions. Stimulant meds (like methylphenidate or amphetamines) treat ADHD, but in someone with severe anxiety, a stimulant alone can sometimes ramp up the jitters. In fact, children (and adults) with ADHD + anxiety often don't respond as well to ADHD meds unless the anxiety is also addressed. Doctors might add an SSRI or other anti-anxiety medication to the mix, or choose a non-stimulant ADHD med if stimulants prove too anxiety-provoking.Let me share a quick personal strategy (with a dash of humor): I have ADHD and anxiety, so my brain is basically an internet browser with 50 tabs open – and 10 of them are frozen on a spinning “wheel of doom” (those are the anxieties). One practical tip that helps me distinguish the two is to write down my racing thoughts. If I see worries like “I'll probably get fired for sending that email typo” dominating the page, I know anxiety is flaring. If the page is blank because I got distracted after one sentence... well, hello ADHD! This silly little exercise helps me decide: do I need to do some calming techniques, or do I need to buckle down and use an ADHD strategy like the Pomodoro method? Try it out: Knowledge is power, and self-awareness is the key.Quick Tips – ADHD vs Anxiety: When in doubt, ask what's driving the chaos.* Content of Thoughts: Racing mind full of specific worries (anxiety) vs. racing mind full of everything except what you want to focus on (ADHD).* Physical Symptoms: Anxiety often brings friends like sweaty palms, racing heart, and tummy trouble. ADHD's restlessness isn't usually accompanied by fear, just boredom or impulsivity.* Treatment Approaches: For co-occurring cases, consider therapy and possibly a combo of medications. Experts often treat the most impairing symptom first – if panic attacks keep you homebound, address that alongside ADHD. Conversely, untreated ADHD can actually fuel anxiety (ever notice how missing deadlines and forgetfulness make you more anxious? Ask me how I know!). A balanced plan might be, say, stimulant medication + talk therapy for anxiety, or an SSRI combined with ADHD coaching. Work closely with a professional to fine-tune this.Alright, take a breath (seriously, if you've been holding it – breathing is good!). We've tackled anxiety; now let's talk about the dark cloud that can sometimes follow ADHD: depression.ADHD and Depression: When the Chaos Brings a CloudADHD is often associated with being energetic, spontaneous, even optimistic (“Sure, I can start a new project at 2 AM!”). So why do so many of us also struggle with depression? The reality is, living with unmanaged ADHD can be tough. Imagine years of what Dr. Russell Barkley calls “developmental delay” in executive function – always feeling one step behind in managing life, despite trying so hard. It's no surprise that about 1 in 5 kids with ADHD also has a diagnosable depression, and studies show anywhere from 8% to 55% of adults with ADHD have experienced a depressive disorder in their lifetime. (Yes, that range is huge – it depends how you define “depression” – but even on the low end it's a lot.) Dr. Barkley himself notes that roughly 25% of people with ADHD will develop significant depression by adulthood. In short, ADHD can come with a case of the blues (not the fun rhythm-and-blues kind, unfortunately).So what does ADHD + depression look like? Picture this: You've got a pile of unfinished projects, bills, laundry – the ADHD “trail of crumbs.” Initially, you shrug it off or maybe crack a joke (“organizational skills, who's she?”). But over time, the failures and frustrations can chip away at your self-esteem. You start feeling helpless or hopeless: “Why bother trying if I'm just going to screw it up or forget again?” That right there is the voice of depression sneaking in. ADHD's impulsivity might also lead to regrettable decisions or conflicts that you later brood over, another pathway to depressed mood.In fact, the Attention Deficit Disorder Association points out that ADHD's impact on our lives – trouble with self-esteem, work or school difficulties, and strained relationships – can contribute to depression. It's like a one-two punch: ADHD creates problems; those problems make you sad or defeated, which then makes it even harder to deal with ADHD. Fun cycle, huh?Now, depression itself can mask as ADHD in some cases, especially in adults. Poor concentration, low motivation, fatigue, social withdrawal – these can appear in major depression and look a lot like ADHD symptoms. If an adult walks into a doctor's office saying “I can't focus and I'm procrastinating a ton,” a cursory eval might yield an ADHD diagnosis. But if that focus problem started only after they, say, lost a loved one or fell into a deep funk, and they also feel worthless or have big sleep/appetite changes, depression may be the primary culprit. On the flip side, a person with lifelong ADHD might be misdiagnosed as just depressed, because they seem down or overwhelmed. As always, timeline is key: ADHD usually starts early (childhood), whereas depression often has a more defined onset. Also, ask: Is the inability to focus present even when life's going okay? If yes, ADHD is likely in the mix. If the focus issues wax and wane with mood, depression might be the driver.There's also a nuance: ADHD mood issues vs. clinical depression. People with ADHD can have intense emotions and feel demoralized after a bad day, but often these feelings can lift if something positive happens (say, an exciting new interest appears – suddenly we have energy!). Clinical depression is more persistent – even good news might not cheer you up much. As Dr. Thomas Brown emphasizes, ADHD includes difficulty regulating emotion; an ADHD-er might feel sudden anger or sadness that's intense but then dissipates . By contrast, depression is a consistent low mood or loss of pleasure in things over weeks or months. Knowing this difference can be huge in sorting out what's going on.Now, how do we deal with this combo? The good news: many treatments for depression also help ADHD and vice versa. Therapy is a prime example. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and related approaches can address negative thought patterns (“I'm just a failure”) and also help with practical skills for ADHD (like scheduling, or as I call it, tricking my brain into doing stuff on time). There are even specialized therapies for adults with ADHD that blend mood and attention strategies. On the medication front, sometimes a single med can pull double duty. One interesting option is bupropion (Wellbutrin) – an antidepressant that affects dopamine and norepinephrine, which can improve both depression and ADHD symptoms in some people. There's also evidence that stimulant medications plus an antidepressant can be a powerful combo: stimulants to improve concentration and energy, antidepressant to lift mood. Psychiatrists will tailor this to the individual – for instance, if someone is severely depressed (can't get out of bed), treating depression first may be priority. If the depression seems secondary to ADHD struggles, improving the ADHD could automatically boost mood. Often, it's a balancing act of treating both concurrently – maybe starting an antidepressant and an ADHD med around the same time, or ensuring therapy covers both bases.Let's not forget lifestyle: exercise, sleep, nutrition – these affect both ADHD and mood. Regular exercise, for example, can increase BDNF (a brain growth factor) and neurotransmitters that help both attention and mood. Personally, I found that when I (finally) started a simple exercise routine, my mood swings evened out a bit and my brain felt a tad less foggy. (Of course, starting that routine required overcoming my ADHD inertia – ask me how I know that took a few tries... or twenty.)Quick Tips – ADHD vs Depression:* Check Your Joy Meter: With ADHD alone, you can still feel happy/excited when something engaging happens (ADHD folks light up for interesting tasks!). With depression, even things you normally love barely register. If your favorite hobbies no longer spark any joy, that's a red flag for depression.* All in Your Head? ADHD negative thoughts sound like “Ugh, I forgot again, I need a better system.” Depression thoughts sound like “I forgot again because I'm useless and nothing will ever change.” Listen to that self-talk; depression is a sneaky bully.* Professional Help: A thorough evaluation can include psychological tests or questionnaires to measure attention and mood separately. For treatment, consider a combined approach: therapy (like CBT or coaching) plus meds as needed. According to research, a mix of stimulant medication and therapy (especially CBT) can help treat both conditions. And remember, addressing one can often relieve the other: improve your ADHD coping skills, and you might start seeing hope instead of disappointment (boosting mood); treat your depression, and suddenly you have the energy to tackle that ADHD to-do list.Before we move on, one more important note: if you ever have thoughts of self-harm or suicide, please reach out to a professional immediately. Depression is serious, and when compounded with ADHD impulsivity, it can be dangerous. There is help, and you're not alone – so many of us have been in that dark place, and it can get better with the right support. Knowledge is power and self-awareness is the key, yes, but sometimes you also need a good therapist, maybe a support group, and possibly medication to truly turn things around. There's no shame in that game.Alright, deep breath. It's getting a bit heavy in here, so let's pivot to something different: a condition that seems like the opposite of ADHD in some ways, yet can co-occur – OCD. And don't worry, we'll crank the sass back up a notch.ADHD and OCD: The Odd Couple of AttentionWhen you think of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD), you might picture someone extremely organized, checking the stove 10 times, everything neat and controlled. When you think ADHD… well, “organized” isn't the first word that comes to mind, right?
Post-Gazette sports columnist Paul Zeise reacts to the day in Pittsburgh sports news and analyzes whether the Steelers are legit postseason contenders ahead of the 2025 NFL regular season. Paul breaks down why he believes this is the best Steelers team on both sides of the ball since Pittsburgh had Ben Roethlisberger in 2017. Do the additions of Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith, among others, make this team a threat to win the AFC North and actually win a playoff game come winter? Conversely, will the losses of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Najee Harris negate the additions Mike Tomlin, Omar Khan and company made this offseason? Lastly, Paul weighs in on the news that the Pirates' Oneil Cruz will compete in the MLB Home Run Derby. For more sports, visit post-gazette.com.
BT and Sal engage in a heated debate regarding the New York Knicks' hiring of Mike Brown as head coach. BT champions Brown's resume, highlighting his past success with winning teams and his potential to elevate the Knicks' offense and utilize their star players, particularly Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, more effectively than his predecessor, Tom Thibodeau. Conversely, Sal expresses strong skepticism, viewing Brown as a "retread" whose previous successes were overly reliant on generational talents like LeBron James, questioning his ability to lead the Knicks to a championship given his past postseason shortcomings and perceived lack of sustained success outside of those situations. The conversation delves into contrasting coaching philosophies, player utilization, and the realistic championship aspirations for the Knicks under Brown's leadership.
Dr. Michelle Starz-Gaiano is Professor and Chair of Biological Sciences at the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC). Michelle's research uses fruit flies to examine how cells in the body go to the right place at the right time. Understanding why and how cells use their genetic information to move through the body is critical because if this movement doesn't happen correctly, it could, for example, impact embryo development or affect how immune cells mobilize after an injury. Conversely, preventing cancer cells from moving could keep cancer from spreading to other parts of the body. Michelle often spends her free time cooking and baking. Her kitchen looks a little like a lab, and she enjoys experimenting with making different foods. Michelle and her family also like to spend time together, travel, and listen to music. She received her bachelor's degree in biology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and her PhD in Developmental Genetics from New York University. Afterwards, Michelle completed a postdoctoral fellowship at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. She joined UMBC in 2008 and has received the Donald Creighton Outstanding Faculty Member Award from the UMBC Graduate Student Association for her excellent mentorship. In our interview, she shares more about her life and science.
The market climbs relentlessly higher while uncertainty looms on every horizon. Is this sustainable? Seth Cogswell of Running Oak draws compelling parallels between today's investment landscape and the bubble of 2000, where a handful of companies drove index returns while numerous others languished in the shadows.We're living through what historians might call a "Fourth Turning" – a once-in-80-years societal transformation that coincides with major shifts in government, economy, and technology. Add to this the troubling possibility that social media and AI might actually be making us collectively less intelligent, and you have a recipe for market inefficiency that thoughtful investors can exploit.Cogswell reveals why mid-cap companies occupy a unique sweet spot in this environment – established enough to provide stability but small enough to deliver meaningful growth when they innovate. This segment has been largely overlooked as capital floods into the largest names, creating valuation imbalances that spell opportunity for disciplined investors.The Running Oak approach focuses on three timeless principles: maximizing earnings growth, maintaining strict valuation discipline, and mitigating downside risk. This rules-based strategy ensures consistency regardless of market conditions, making it an anchor holding for uncertain times.Perhaps most compelling is Cogswell's insight about "investing where others aren't." When everyone piles into the same popular stocks, prices rise and future returns diminish. Conversely, areas of the market receiving less attention often offer better valuations, higher upside potential, and lower downside risk – exactly the asymmetric opportunity sophisticated investors seek.As passive flows continue to concentrate in fewer names, the opportunity for disciplined, thoughtful investment approaches grows. Follow Seth Cogswell on LinkedIn and Twitter @SethCogswell or visit RunningOak.com to learn more about navigating these extraordinary market conditions.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It's a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:
Lots of alpha in this one. You NEED investments like this in your portfolio if you're going to play this game the right way. And a lot of them are on sale! Imagine getting in cheap on entire sectors the world simply cannot do without, and getting paid while you watch it steadily go up and up. With limited downside! I can't think of anything better. Hot Latinas maybe, but apart from that.... Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Sal passionately dissects what both the Mets and Yankees need to do to emerge victorious in their upcoming weekend series. For the Mets, he emphasizes the critical need for their bats to come alive and score a significant number of runs, especially given their depleted pitching staff and the likely unavailability of key bullpen arms. He argues that while the Mets showed resilience against Milwaukee, their usual formula of relying on strong pitching and late-inning bullpen heroics won't suffice against the Yankees. Conversely, Sal points to the Yankees' recent struggles with starting pitching and bullpen inconsistencies as their primary vulnerability, despite their bats starting to heat up. He suggests that if the Yankees fail to win this series, it will raise serious questions about their true contender status, despite his belief they will still win their division.
Dive into Episode #148 of the Psych Health and Safety USA Podcast, featuring host Dr. I. David Daniels, PhD, CSD, VPS, and special guest Gloria Hartley, the Civil Rights Compliance Coordinator at the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Virginia Tech University. She is also the child of immigrants, a veteran of the United States Navy, and has spent over a decade in and around the human resource space in both the private and public sectors. One of her professional goals has been to convert conversations about Civil and Human Rights into practical language and steps that people can take to protect workers and the organization. Civil rights and psychosocial safety are deeply interconnected. Civil rights ensure that individuals are protected from discrimination and have equal access to opportunities, which is fundamental for creating a safe and inclusive environment. Psychosocial safety, however, refers to the psychological and social conditions that allow individuals to feel safe, respected, and valued in their communities and workplaces. Individuals are more likely to experience psychosocial safety when civil rights are upheld because they are protected from discrimination, harassment, and other forms of harm. This creates an environment where people can express themselves freely, participate fully in society, and feel a sense of belonging. Conversely, when civil rights are violated, it can lead to a lack of psychosocial safety, resulting in stress, anxiety, and other adverse mental health outcomes. LinkedIn Profile https://www.linkedin.com/in/gloriamhartley/
We delve into the lives of Abraham and Moses to understand the profound relationship between faith, righteousness, and blessing. We explore how Abraham's unwavering faith led to righteousness and obedience, even in the absence of explicit laws, and how this faith was pivotal in receiving God's promises. Conversely, we examine Moses' lapse of faith at Kadesh, which resulted in his exclusion from the Promised Land despite his long-standing leadership and faithfulness. Through contrasting these two biblical figures, we uncover the essential role of faith in receiving God's blessing and how it produces genuine obedience. Support the showRead along with us in the Bible Brief App! Try the Bible Brief book for an offline experience!Get your free Bible Timeline with the 10 Steps: Timeline LinkSupport the show: Tap here to become a monthly supporter!Review the show: Tap here!Want to go deeper?...Download the Bible Brief App!iPhone: App Store LinkAndroid: Play Store LinkWant a physical book? Check out "Bible Brief" by our founder!Amazon: Amazon LinkWebsite: biblebrief.orgInstagram: @biblelitTwitter: @bible_litFacebook: @biblelitEmail the Show: biblebrief@biblelit.org Want to learn the Bible languages (Greek & Hebrew)? Check out ou...
This Nordic Asia Podcast episode explores how Estonia and Japan, two countries under demographic pressure with different immigration histories, are managing the integration of foreign labour. Despite Estonia's EU membership and Japan's more recent policy shifts, both nations face labour shortages due to rapidly ageing populations. Estonia maintains a controlled but gradually liberalised immigration policy, while Japan has adopted Technical Intern Training Program (TITP). The system that will be replaced in coming years with a new program aiming for better job mobility and stronger language requirements. A key theme throughout is the role of language as a structural barrier. In both countries, immigrants' language proficiency remains low: only 11% achieve fluency in Estonian, while Japan's pre-arrival language training often falls short of workplace demands. This barrier limits not only job mobility, but also social integration and emotional well-being. The dominance of local languages in workplace culture fosters exclusion, even when basic communication in English or Japanese is possible. Support systems also diverge. Estonia offers spouse integration programs and community-based language initiatives, whereas Japan restricts family migration under most visa categories. The discussion emphasises that language barriers are not simply logistical, they are also deeply embedded in social expectations and everyday interaction. In sum, while Estonia and Japan face similar demographic challenges, their tools, legal frameworks, and cultural attitudes toward foreign labour differ sharply. Estonia's EU-aligned policies and family-inclusive approach may offer valuable lessons to Japan. Conversely, Estonia could learn from Japan's structured pre-arrival preparation programs to improve early-stage immigrant adaptation. Ultimately, the episode argues that integration is not just a matter of policy, it is a broader societal test of inclusivity and resilience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
Having lots of ambition is great and all, BUT WHERE YOU PUT IT means everything. Sometimes we have so much ambition, we have no idea what to do with it, and it goes everywhere but where it's supposed to. VP and Robb have both been there, and do their best in Episode 91 to get your focus in the right place from the very start. #TradingPsychology Maverick Links Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Forex Trading: URL: https://maverickfx.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=vpyt Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Currencies: URL: https://maverickcurrencies.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=VPPodPsych Click Here To Learn More about Maverick Trading's Stock/Options Division: URL: https://mavericktrading.com/application-3-a/?utm_source=VPPodPsych Maverick Trading YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@mavericktrading Robb's Flat Earth Trading Society https://www.youtube.com/@FlatEarthTradingSociety No Nonsense Forex Links VP's Trading Psychology Book https://nononsenseforex.com/forex-psychology-book/ Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (Bonus and Contest Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X The hosts of this podcast are not licensed financial advisors, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading anything involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.
This Nordic Asia Podcast episode explores how Estonia and Japan, two countries under demographic pressure with different immigration histories, are managing the integration of foreign labour. Despite Estonia's EU membership and Japan's more recent policy shifts, both nations face labour shortages due to rapidly ageing populations. Estonia maintains a controlled but gradually liberalised immigration policy, while Japan has adopted Technical Intern Training Program (TITP). The system that will be replaced in coming years with a new program aiming for better job mobility and stronger language requirements. A key theme throughout is the role of language as a structural barrier. In both countries, immigrants' language proficiency remains low: only 11% achieve fluency in Estonian, while Japan's pre-arrival language training often falls short of workplace demands. This barrier limits not only job mobility, but also social integration and emotional well-being. The dominance of local languages in workplace culture fosters exclusion, even when basic communication in English or Japanese is possible. Support systems also diverge. Estonia offers spouse integration programs and community-based language initiatives, whereas Japan restricts family migration under most visa categories. The discussion emphasises that language barriers are not simply logistical, they are also deeply embedded in social expectations and everyday interaction. In sum, while Estonia and Japan face similar demographic challenges, their tools, legal frameworks, and cultural attitudes toward foreign labour differ sharply. Estonia's EU-aligned policies and family-inclusive approach may offer valuable lessons to Japan. Conversely, Estonia could learn from Japan's structured pre-arrival preparation programs to improve early-stage immigrant adaptation. Ultimately, the episode argues that integration is not just a matter of policy, it is a broader societal test of inclusivity and resilience.
This Nordic Asia Podcast episode explores how Estonia and Japan, two countries under demographic pressure with different immigration histories, are managing the integration of foreign labour. Despite Estonia's EU membership and Japan's more recent policy shifts, both nations face labour shortages due to rapidly ageing populations. Estonia maintains a controlled but gradually liberalised immigration policy, while Japan has adopted Technical Intern Training Program (TITP). The system that will be replaced in coming years with a new program aiming for better job mobility and stronger language requirements. A key theme throughout is the role of language as a structural barrier. In both countries, immigrants' language proficiency remains low: only 11% achieve fluency in Estonian, while Japan's pre-arrival language training often falls short of workplace demands. This barrier limits not only job mobility, but also social integration and emotional well-being. The dominance of local languages in workplace culture fosters exclusion, even when basic communication in English or Japanese is possible. Support systems also diverge. Estonia offers spouse integration programs and community-based language initiatives, whereas Japan restricts family migration under most visa categories. The discussion emphasises that language barriers are not simply logistical, they are also deeply embedded in social expectations and everyday interaction. In sum, while Estonia and Japan face similar demographic challenges, their tools, legal frameworks, and cultural attitudes toward foreign labour differ sharply. Estonia's EU-aligned policies and family-inclusive approach may offer valuable lessons to Japan. Conversely, Estonia could learn from Japan's structured pre-arrival preparation programs to improve early-stage immigrant adaptation. Ultimately, the episode argues that integration is not just a matter of policy, it is a broader societal test of inclusivity and resilience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/eastern-european-studies
What does it take to lead at every level and shape the leaders of tomorrow? SUMMARY Long Blue Line podcast host, Lt. Col. (Ret.) Naviere Walkewicz '99 sat with Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Sherman '95, the U.S. Air Force Academy's vice superintendent, for a deep dive into leadership, humanity and building a world-class service academy. This episode is packed with wisdom for aspiring, emerging, and seasoned leaders alike. SHARE LINKEDIN | FACEBOOK GEN. SHERMAN'S TOP 10 LEADERSHIP TAKEAWAYS - Leadership is a human experience - focus on connecting with and caring about people. - Love what you do and love the people you lead; passion inspires others to follow you. - Embrace failures and challenges as opportunities for personal growth and development. - Set the right culture and values within your team to build trust and mutual support. - Be present and engaged with your team, understanding their motivations and experiences. - Leadership is about more than rank or position - it's about earning genuine trust and respect. - Invest time in understanding different generations, cultural nuances, and individual perspectives. - Balance professional excellence with personal growth and life experiences. - Support your team's development by providing encouragement and holding them accountable. - Your legacy is built through individual interactions and the positive impact you have on people's lives. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction to Major General Thomas P. Sherman 01:29 Choosing Leadership Over Flying 07:23 The Impact of Mentorship and Values 12:46 Heritage and Evolution of Security Forces 17:43 Personal Growth in Aviano, Italy 24:17 The Importance of Work-Life Balance 29:50 Culminating Command Experience at Bagram 42:25 The Role of Family in Leadership 51:29 Continuous Self-Improvement as a Leader 56:27 Embracing Failure as a Growth Opportunity 01:00:06 Legacy and the Impact of Leadership ABOUT GEN. SHERMAN BIO Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Sherman is the Vice Superintendent of the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, CO. He is serving as the chief operations officer to the Superintendent and overseeing the Academy's blend of military training, academics, athletics, and character development for cadets. Gen. Sherman commissioned in 1995 from the Academy with a Bachelor of Science in Political Science. He built a distinguished career as a security forces officer. He's held command at nearly every level. His key assignments include leadership of the 88th Air Base Wing at Wright-Patterson AFB and critical staff positions at the Pentagon. In May 2024, Gen. Sherman was tapped to serve as the Academy's Vice Superintendent CONNECT WITH GEN. SHERMAN LINKEDIN ALL PAST LBL EPISODES | ALL LBLPN PRODUCTIONS AVAILABLE ON ALL MAJOR PODCAST PLATFORMS TRANSCRIPT SPEAKERS Guest, Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Sherman '95 | Host, Lt. Col. (ret.) Naviere Walkewicz '99 Naviere Walkewicz 00:00 Welcome to Long Blue Leadership, the podcast where we share insights on leadership through the lives and experiences of Air Force Academy graduates. I'm Naviere Walkewicz, Class of '99 today. I'm joined by a leader whose career has taken him from the flight line to the halls of Congress and now back to the very institution that launched it all. Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Sherman currently serves as vice superintendent of the Air Force Academy, where he plays a critical role in guiding the development of our future officers and ensuring the Academy remains a world class institution for leadership, character and Day 1 readiness to win the future fight. A 1995 Academy graduate, Gen. Sherman has spent nearly three decades serving in key operational, strategic and command roles. He's led at every level, from squadron to wing command, and his assignments have included everything from nuclear security enterprise to homeland defense, policy development at the Pentagon, and legislative affairs at the highest levels of the Department of the Air Force. Prior to his role as vice superintendent, Gen. Sherman served in the Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense, where he was a principal military assistant leading policy integration across joint staff, interagency services and combatant commands. He's perhaps best known in command circles for leading the 88th Air Base wing at Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, one of the largest and most complex wings in the Air Force, with a focus on people first, leadership and mission excellence. Gen. Sherman, welcome to Long Blue Leadership. We're so glad you're here too. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 01:32 It is great to be here. Thank you. Naviere Walkewicz 01:33 We're excited and we're going to dive right in, because I think what is so special for our listeners is really hearing these moments that have changed your life. I'd like to start at the Academy. You turned down a pilot slot. You were rated, but said no. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 01:48 Well, actually it was a little bit before that. You know, it's kind of interesting, because that was the draw that brought me here, is I just had this incredible passion to want to fly, and I love flying, and I truly enjoyed it, especially through all the different airmanship programs and things like and things like that we had here. The experiences were fantastic. But, you know, as I was starting to learn more about myself going through the Academy, I was starting to feel my heart getting pulled in a direction of wanting to really lead people and really spend a lot of time working with the enlisted. And I think that came from a couple different areas. I think it was some really unique exposure that I got during my ops Air Force time, which I went to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, during ops, and just had our action officer that worked this, I think just did a phenomenal job. And I really started getting pulled to what was then called security police. That is actually when Laurie and I got together and started dating, because Laurie is here in Colorado Springs, but she grew up as an Air Force brat. My father-in-law is a retired Chief Master Sgt., and so there was a lot of mentorship that was taking place around dining room table when I was a young cadet. And I think one of the things that her parents really taught me was just the value of the enlisted force, and so I was feeling my heart really getting pulled. And so obviously, there's a conundrum. There's a conundrum on what were the root desires that brought me here — what were the things that I was learning as a cadet, my joy of flying, and also, particularly the culture at that time, was that that was really the job that you needed to aspire to be, that was the expectation of cadets. And so then to really kind of run counter to that strong current was really kind of a unique, you know, almost unnavigated area, right? And so to really kind of take the story out to its next level is that I'd really gotten to a point where talking with people there — we hadn't had the AMT program, but there were these NCOs that were kind of tangentially attached to cadet squadrons. And so I got a chance to talk to one of the master sergeants that was there who was a maintainer by background. And I was kind of pouring my heart out to him on, you know, what had I been talking to him with my now in-laws, about where was my heart pulling me? And so he said, ‘Give me just a second.' And he picked up the phone, and he called my AOC and he goes, ‘Hey, you're gonna be there for a little while.' And this was a Friday afternoon. He said, ‘I got a cadet that needs to come talk to you.' And he hangs up the phone and he goes, ‘Now you go tell your AOC what you just told me.' And so I ended up going to my AOCs office that day, and we had about a two-hour conversation about this. I sat down and really, kind of took the time to explain to him what was I feeling, And obviously, I really try to see the best in people. And so I think from a noble place, he was doing his best to convince me that I was making a grave mistake. And went on to talk to me about what his concerns were, the career field that I was looking at, things along those lines. And we can save that conversation for another time, but I think really where the foundation came in is where we started to talk about leadership. And you know, what I was asking him to do was to pull my rated recommendation form, so we had just submitted them, and I was asking him to pull my rated recommendation form. I didn't want to compete for it anymore. And so we started to talk about leadership. And he says, ‘Hey, Cadet Sherman, you need to understand that leadership in this Air Force is being the lead F-16 pilot on a bombing run, you know, putting iron on target.' And that's true. It's a very important part of leadership. It is a very important part of tactical operational leadership in this Air Force. So he's not wrong in that space. But I was looking at it from a different lens, and I was looking at it, I think, on a larger level. And what I don't think he realized is that 30 seconds before I walked into his office, he set me up for success. I just happened to be waiting outside the office, and all of a sudden, I looked on his cork board, and somebody, and I don't know who it was, had pinned a note that was written to Airman Magazineby an airman first class. And this airman first class titled this, “I need a leader.” And this A1C felt so strongly about what they were feeling — and I have no idea who this person was — felt so strongly about it that they put pen to paper, and this would have been the fall of 1994, and sent this into Airman Magazine, and it says, “I need a leader.” Commissioning sources. ‘Send us lieutenants that we can look up to that will hold us accountable when we do wrong, that will encourage us when we do well, that will be an example that we can look up to, that will care about us as human beings, because you are not sending them to us now. Air Force, I need a leader.' Like that 30 seconds just before I walked into his office — that changed my life, and it changed my life, because for me, at that moment, what I was getting ready to go ask my AOC to do, what I was looking at inside myself, that became my charge. And so as we spoke, you know, 20-year-old Cadet First Class Sherman — I might have been a 21-year-old at the time — Cadet First Class Sherman pushed back on my AOC, and I said, ‘Sir, I disagree.' I said, ‘I want to be that guy. I want to be that guy that that A1c is asking for on your cork board outside, because that's leadership in this Air Force.' And so, to his credit, he said, ‘Hey, I want you to go think about this over the weekend. You know, think about what you're doing. Come back to me on Monday. No questions asked. I'll pull it if you want me to.' And I left there, and I remember feeling like, not like a weight had been lifted off my shoulder, but I almost felt like this sense of like, ‘Now I've got my purpose,' because that little article has shaped me my entire career, and I mean to this day, and at a scale. You know, as a lieutenant, my scale is this big on what I'm affecting to help do and be what that A1C needs to a wing commander. I always keep it in the back of my head, and after all of these years, I am still thinking about, Am I doing right by that A1C that 31 years ago, felt so strongly about something that they wrote a note to Airman Magazine, and that became my charge. Naviere Walkewicz 08:09 That is incredibly powerful. I'm a little bit without words, because I'm thinking about, first off, being brave enough to disagree with an AOC. I mean, I think that takes courage in showing your leadership there. Were you always like that? Have you always been someone that is steadfast in a decision and being able to kind of speak out? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 08:30 So I get that from my parents. And, you know, I grew up in Corona, California. My mom and dad are amazing people. And we didn't grow up with a lot of money, and we grew up from a pretty meager background, and my mom and dad had made a decision early on in their marriage, when they had my sister and I, that my mom was going to focus to make sure that Nancy and I got an education, and my dad was going to work as many jobs as he had to to put food on the table. And sometimes my dad was holding down three jobs to make sure that we had nutritious food to eat, and my mom was working miracles to make sure that we were fed well, but that also that she was dedicated and had the time to volunteer for things like PTA, being involved as a class volunteer, making sure that we were involved in things and had exposure to things that what they did was they also instilled in me this really strong blue collar work ethic. And it was this aspect of, if I just roll up my sleeves and put in the work, anything is possible. And so on that line, this young kid growing up with a West Coast father and an East Coast mother, and just this, really neat family background that things for me, that I believed in I would go after with all of my heart and soul. And so I found out about the Academy when I was 12 years old. And so, you know, when I at 12 years — we were going to a community event there in Corona, and there was an officer recruiter — Capt. Craig. was her name — and we started talking. She says, ‘Hey, did anybody talk to you about the Air Force Academy?' And I said, ‘No, this sounds great.' So from there, I just made this decision as a 12-year-old, and I worked all the way through junior high and high school to get here, because to go to your point like, ‘I made a decision, I'm gonna see this thing through.' Naviere Walkewicz 10:30 Whoa. OK, so you knew you were going to the Academy before you graduated high school. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 10:35 Yes, in my mind, there was no other option. Naviere Walkewicz 10:39 And so anyone in your family serve, or were you the first one in your family to serve? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 10:43 So I am the first officer and career member of the family. My dad was drafted and went to Vietnam in 1967 and stayed through Tet of 1968. I had an uncle, Harry Lee Schmidt, who was a C-47 loadmaster in World War II and Korea, and my grandfather was actually a part of the initial kind of what was the foundation of the OSS and the Navy doing beach recon on beaches in the South Pacific, prior to island hopping campaign and island landings. And so there was this real heritage of service, right? Just not career service. But even then, as a kid, I always had in my mind, ‘OK, one way or another, I'm going to serve, and if I do an enlistment and then go to college afterwards —' but I had this idea that, ‘OK, I'm going to serve,' and then all of a sudden, this became this amazing conduit that got me here, right? Naviere Walkewicz 11:38 And they also had ties to aviation. How did they feel about your decision, your family? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 11:43 It was interesting, because they knew how passionate I was about aviation growing up. I mean, we did not miss an air show at March Air Force Base, the Chino air show, which was planes of fame, which was all historic aircraft. I volunteered as a high school student to work there, and we helped restore airplanes with me and my friends. You know, it was interesting, because my parents were very supportive in ‘OK, where's your heart leading you? And, what makes you feel so strongly about this?' Because when I first talked to him on the phone, I called him from Ramstein Air Base and said, ‘Hey, I think I know what I want to do in the Air Force. I want to go to security police. And my mom was like, ‘What's that? And, so, as time went by and I explained it, I think my parents probably all along knew that that was probably going to be a very good fit. And then after commissioning and at my first assignment, I think that they were certain of it, right? Yeah, they were absolutely certain. Naviere Walkewicz 12:37 That is amazing. Well, I want to dive into this profession a bit, because it's interesting. You know, you've mentioned, when you came in, it was security police, and, security forces and you hear people saying defenders and peacekeepers. So there's this lineage and this heritage. Can you maybe talk a little bit about that and then maybe lead us into that next transformational moment that you might have had in this role? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 12:58 OK, I'm very proud of the fact that, you know, I am part of an ever decreasing group of folks that came in when we were still security police, and that was really still the peacekeeper days, because this was all kind of the follow on on the Cold War. The peacekeepers were our cold warriors and that was a huge part. Our defenders came in and really, that name started to really grow in 1997 when the name changed from security police to security forces, and we were actually going back to some of our heritage that was in Operation Safeside, which was the combat security police squadrons in Vietnam. So when you think about the courage that was displayed during the Tet Offensive at places like Tan Son Nhat that those were safe side warriors that were a part of these combat security police squadrons. And so the very — part of the lineage of the very beret, and flash that we have is actually a tip of the hat to the lighter blue berets, and that flash with the Falcon and the crossed runways that goes back, actually, to our Safeside heritage days. The beret goes back even farther than that. It goes back to Strategic Air Command, Elite Guard back in the 1950s. So it's this great lineage. And so, you know, for me, part of it was like when I got my first beret, wow, that meant something to me. And then, you know, as we then kind of transformed along the way, and this amazing career field grew, and the aspects of this air based ground defense, which was really, I would say, was kind of the draw that got me into wanting to go into security police, was I really liked this idea of, ‘How do we do base defense?' The law enforcement side was intriguing to me, but it was based defense that just had me just had me captivated. Naviere Walkewicz 14:44 And was that something that you found out early in your career? After you graduate the Academy, you're now in security police. Is that when you kind of realized, ‘This is where I want to go in, air, base, ground defense.'? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 14:54 It even happened at ops. So as we were spending time with the security police squadron, I ended up spending time with a captain who was heading up the Elite Guard, and there was an interaction we had as I was doing a ride along. He's like, ‘Hey, you need to come see me.' And so I went and met up with him, and he took me around and introduced me to all of his airmen that were part of the guard. He knew something all about them. And then we went to his office and talked, and he had gone to Ranger School and Airborne and things like that, and said, ‘Hey, like, the future of the career field is actually us looking to the past.' And really kind of got me fired up on what we call back then, air base ground defense. So when I got to McChord — McChord Air Force Base was my first duty station. And the great thing about going to AMC first is it AMC is a mobility — I mean, it is all about mobility and the operations associated with it. And so the first thing that that my task was as the second lieutenant in that squadron was, I was the air base ground defense flight commander. So that was, I mean — we would go out to Fort Lewis, and we would bivouac for days. And I had, you know, a 44 person team that was a base defense sector. I had specialized K-9 units heavy weapons. And back in those days, we had 81mm mortar teams and fire direction centers that we would set up. So I just got completely on board with the air base defense piece. And so that was that was very passionate for me, which then made the next step to Korea an absolutely logical next location, going to the wolf pack at Kunsan, not only getting a chance to then stand up Gwangju as a part of the first Air Expeditionary Unit to go back to Korea since the Korean War, but then doing the mobile reserve aspect of it. And it was just a great assignment. Naviere Walkewicz 16:40 Wow. So you were right in from the very beginning. You got kind of just into it all. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 16:45 So when we go back, when you were talking to me about, ‘Hey, when you make your mind up...' So I had this five-year plan built out. And, you know, my five-year plan was ‘OK, I'm gonna do my first assignment at the first opportunity to PCS. I need to go remote. I need to go to Korea. And then, OK, how can I get another overseas assignment after that? And then what do I need?' So the thought was, “Let me get to as many match comms as I can, as fast as I can in my career, and use that as a place — OK, because I want to build my experience base out. Because even as a lieutenant and young captain, I didn't want to come across as a one-trick pony. So my thought was, “Let me just get as much as I could under my belt early on.' And so after I left Kunsan, I ended up going to Aviano Air Base in Italy, which, for me, when you look at like those moments in life that are transformational, this was transformational on a different level. You know, some assignments you go to are very much professional growth assignments. This assignment, for me, was very much a personal growth assignment. Naviere Walkewicz 17:52 OK, so tell me more. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 17:55 I mean, when you think about it, four years at USAFA, very uniquely focused on a plate that is overflowing with things that you need to get done. So you are, you're focused on, you know, everything from grades to military training to all of those things. And then I get to my first base, and I am just working, and I'm volunteering for everything, and we have got a heavy ops tempo of exercises and things like that. And my leadership was fantastic, because they were throwing me into every opportunity I could. And then, boom, I go to Korea, and that is a unique warfighting focused — and at Kunsan especially was heavily warfighting focused. So now all of a sudden I am spending really, when you think about it, the last almost seven years being uniquely focused on mission, right? And so I get to Aviano Air Base, Italy, and the first thing that happens is Operation Allied Force kicks off. So I get there in January, boom. Allied Force kicks off. I think it was in end of February, beginning of March. And wow, what? Again, what an amazing, mission focused experience. And then after we finished up Allied Force and the base returned back to more of its steady-state standpoint, it was the Italians that took me under their wings, that because I made a specific choice, because I grew up — my mom's side of the family are all Italian immigrants — and I was always at my Nonnie and Papa's house, and there was just a lot of that growing up, which is that whole, like, you know, West Coast dad, East Coast mom thing, but I didn't know, you know, my mom and her brothers never spoke Italian. And there was a lot of that, that thought back in those days that, you know, ‘Hey, we're here to be American, so we're going to learn English, and we're not going to speak, you know, the language that we came from,' right? And so my mom and her brothers really never learned to speak Italian. And so my thought was, ‘Gosh, I grew up with this as such a strong part of my childhood that I need to put myself in a position where I can learn the language and start to kind of get an appreciation on the culture. Together.' And so I specifically — and really lucked out on a location, but I was about 20 kilometers away from Aviano. I was in an amazing town. I was the only American living in the complex that I was in. So I was like, ‘If I'm going to learn, I need to just dive in the way that you do, in the way that I do, and just start learning.' And so I ended up kind of building this support group of Italian families that all kind of took me under their wings. Naviere Walkewicz 20:27 Wait, I have to ask you a question, because back when you're at the Academy, you said you spoke to your now in-laws. So was Laurie not a part of this? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 20:35 So Laurie and I, right. So that's an important part of the story. Laurie and I dated for two years while I was a cadet, and when I was in tech school, her and I made the very difficult decision — and as painful it was — to part ways, so her and I actually parted ways for a few years. I was single at the time. Laurie was still here in Colorado Springs, and I was getting a lot of assignments under my belt, which, to be honest with you, you know, in retrospect, it was very fortunate, because I may not have made the same assignment choices had I been married at the time. And because I wasn't married, there were no other variables that I needed to factor in, other than personal experience goals, right, that I wanted to play into, and so I could just put down whatever assignment I wanted, and that allowed me the opportunity to just focus on job. And while Laurie and I stayed in touch, and I stayed in touch with her parents over the years, I was in Aviano, and her and I were not together at that point, Naviere Walkewicz 21:39 That makes sense. I was like, why were you alone in Italy? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 21:43 It's a fair question. But I also think that being single in that environment allowed me — and that's where I think it helped me develop as a person. And so there are a lot of, I think, really wonderful things that happened during that time, and that was because I was so uniquely mission focused. It was these, this amazing group of Italian friends together, that really kind of taught me about there, there's a time to relax, you know, there's a time to work, there's a time to relax, and there's also a real human need to enjoy life and enjoy time together, which is quintessentially Italian. And so, as my pool of this, these amazing people — that by the way, for the last 25 years, we've been going to visit. It's the same families that took me under their wings when I was a lieutenant, are the same families that were all tuning in as we were doing a live stream of me pinning on my second star. And so I've never been stationed anywhere else in my career where I felt more at home. And so I think this sense of like, ‘Wow. This like independently as my own person, this feels like home.' And as time went by and I started to get an appreciation for actually things that were a part of my childhood. Because, you know, we would have these long, huge meals, we would spend four or five hours at the table as a family. And for me, this was all normal. Well, that was also a part of kind of normal Italian life and normal Italian culture. You're not going out to dinner with your friends unless you're investing at least three hours at the restaurant. But for me, this was all — this felt normal to me. And so it was about, you know, you don't need to eat your food in five minutes. Naviere Walkewicz So contrary to USAFA, by the way. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN You know, you don't need to chew no more than seven times and swallow. So it was about experiencing that, and learning even just some things that became personal passions. Like, you know, how wine is made and why wine pairing matters, and how is this process? And so all of a sudden, this personal experience — and I think growing as a human being was taking place there, and I was maturing as a human being because I had gotten all of this phenomenal job experience under my belt, but this was where I was growing as a human being. And you know what's interesting, as time has gone by, I have noticed just how impactful that time was, because there are things that I've noticed, even as a senior officer, that I feel very strongly about, that I don't think I felt as strongly about as a junior officer, and it was because of that experience, and it was the aspect of when people are on leave, let's let them take leave. There is a part of the human experience that you need to enjoy time with people that you care about, because what it does is you're not slacking off from work. You're not leaving everybody hanging. What's happening is that, because you're taking some time to just enjoy life with people you care about, when you come back, the restorative effects that have taken place because you simply breathe and you enjoyed what it was that you were doing and whatever your passion was, you know, unencumbered, you could enjoy that. And we all realize that there are times, especially as you get into positions of authority, that, hey, they're going to need to call you periodically. But what was interesting is that, especially, I mean, I'll give an example as a wing commander. As a wing commander, despite realizing how important that mission is and how big Wright-Patt was, we, Laurie and I took leave, and we took two weeks of leave, and we went back to Italia and visited our friends and enjoyed life, because the culture helps us to slow down. But what it also did is I gave my staff some parameters. ‘Hey, here are the things that I think are important, like on a scale of one to 10. Here are the things that I think are an eight. So an eight or higher, call me. Don't text me.' I said, ‘Physically call me, because I will answer the phone knowing it's for — and then you have my undivided attention.' But what it also does is it means that my vice wing commander who is there, that I am empowering my vice wing commander and showing to everybody else I trust this leader to lead this wing in my absence. And if it's something that really needs my involvement, they'll get a hold of me. But I think our junior leaders need to see that at the senior most levels, that I can physically trust and emotionally trust my vice, my deputy, to hold things down while I'm gone, and that I'm not irreplaceable, and that if I did my job as a leader, I set the conditions that allowed the wing to thrive in my absence, and didn't mean that the wing had to hang on every decision I made or every word that I said, that I set the conditions that allowed them to be successful and fostered the leadership that allowed them to lead in my absence. And I felt great while I was gone, because I knew the people that we had there, and I knew the investment that we made in them. So that was kind of a long, you know, trip around this… Naviere Walkewicz 27:26 I mean, I think it was so powerful that you kind of learned that about yourself in Italy. And then would you say that there was anyone that you saw emulating that? Or was it just something over time, you developed this realization that you need to enjoy life and you need to allow people the space to do so. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 27:43 So I would say the people that I was emulating in that aspect were a lot of the families that were there. I have been fortunate that I have worked for some commanders who, at different times in their life felt the same way. Conversely, I also worked for commanders that did not feel the same way. And, you know, an interesting case in point on something that on an experience I had in a command bill and after I had left Aviano — this is when Laurie and I were back together; we were married at this point. I had a group commander that was frustrated about me taking leave and called me every day at 1500; every day at 1500 I got a telephone call. And you know what that does is now all of a sudden, you're eating lunch, and the clock is getting closer to 1500 and you start to get that knot in your stomach and you're like, ‘OK, what are we going to talk about today?' And so, unfortunately you don't see some of the same appreciation for that across the board. So how do we deal with it? The best thing that we deal with it is that that's where the buck stops. We don't pass it down to our people. So after I got the call from him, I didn't call back to the squadron. I got the call from him. We went through the call, we answered the questions, and I didn't then immediately turn around and call back to my ops officer who was running the Squadron at the time, and say, XYZ. And we just left it there, because at that point in time, the bucks got to stop it at that point. So I think that that's kind of the, you know, the alpha and the omega of learning and then also having your own personal resilience and courage to say, ‘I accept that the buck stops here, and I'm not going to let this roll downhill to my people.' Naviere Walkewicz 29:41 That's an excellent leadership lesson, because I was going to ask you, ‘What does that look like, and how would you how would you handle that?' And so you went right into that. Thank you so much for that. So what has it been like leading security forces — defenders? What's it been like? Has there been a moment in time where — a particular assignment or something's really stuck into your mind or into your heart, because it's just really affected you? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 30:05 Absolutely. I will tell you, as we go back, as we were kind of talking about decisions that you make in your youth, and that critical decision that I made in the fall of '94 I mean, I have worked with some of the most amazing people I've worked in my life. I have gotten a chance to go to places I never thought that I would see. And so, when you kind of roll up, I would say it was my final squadron command, and I would say that that was a real culminating squadron command. So I commanded four squadrons, and we command early, and we command often, and there's a lot of responsibility that that's placed on us as young officers to command as a young officer. And so having the opportunity to command two times as a captain, or one time, you know, as a major-select, then as a major, then as a lieutenant colonel. So that culminating command would have been Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan in May of 2012 to May of 2013 and you know, it was interesting because all of my previous squadron commands had all been vested in either the contingency response or the kind of combat contingency environments. And it was almost like all of those were leading me to this moment. So let me just kind of set the conditions on what Bagram was like at that point in time. We had grown the squadron to about a 1,200-person squadron, huge squadron. And what we were also responsible for is we had taken over battle space ownership from the Army. So the Air Force was controlling 220 square miles of battle space throughout Parwan province, which is a huge. I mean, it's twice the size of Washington, D.C., if you want to try to give a comparison, more or less is fair to look at that level as just a huge amount of terrain in which our airmen were responsible from everything from humanitarian operations and goodwill outreach to engagements to literal kinetic action and combat in the battle space. And so a part of this culmination was, was an environment where as the defense force commander — as that squadron commander to them as a lieutenant colonel at that point — I mean how we are weaving ourselves into their lives, and how we are working with their section commanders, and how we're working and managing the value of our perimeter defenses with our teams that were going outside of the wire doing legitimate patrolling and engagement and things along those lines, was huge. And I think that that is an example. And when you look in the rearview mirror to say, ‘Gosh, now this, a lot of this makes sense, like all of these assignments, whether by design or whether by fate, somehow gave me an experience that at this moment, I needed it most.' And I think, as I talk, we've really enjoyed being here with the cadets and talking to them about, how does a leader really develop trust, and how does trust really manifest itself? And so, through the time that we were there, and the engagement as their leader — not just the leader who's just simply circulating, because that's important, but they also need to see your decision making and your strategic thought. And how do you react under pressure? How are you reacting as we've got incoming in, and what do you do being the person in the joint defense operations center, helping to manage that, and how are you both taking care of people, and how are you managing mission? And they see that. And so I would say that the development of that level of trust, especially in an environment where you are literally dealing with high costs, is huge. And so I think there was one, situation that really rests on my heart that and I don't talk about this to give validation, but I think I talk about it on it's about how people connect, and why do I feel so strongly that leadership is a human experience, like this is a what we are doing as a human experience. And so I was retiring my chief. So I was asked by my chief at Bagram — this was some years later. He's out of the 105th Base Defense Squadron out of the New York Air National Guard, and him and I were a phenomenal team there. Dave Pritchard and I just made a great team. And so he was retiring, and asked me to come back and do his retirement. So we had done the retirement ceremony. We were at the VFW afterwards, having his after-party and so forth. And so I had gone into the bathroom for a comfort break and washed my hands and things like that. And I noticed, as I was kind of moving towards the bathroom, there was kind of a young man who was kind of floating. You know, floating around. And so I came out of the restroom as I was finished, and he was waiting there at the exit of the restroom for me, and kind of, you know, got in front of me, and he stood there, and he looked at me, and he goes, ‘Hey, sir, I just, I needed to let you know this, that I was one of the airmen in one of your patrols that got hit by an IED, and he said, your investment in us, and the words that you used and when you came to talk to us, and the faith that you had in us gave me the courage to go back outside of the wire when you asked us to go back outside.' And so why that rests so heavy is when you think about what, what is the what is the con? The consequence there is that somebody believed in you so much that when you spoke to them and said the word, they were going to go back out and do it again, in spite of what had just happened to you. And I don't think there is any stronger level of trust that you can ask from somebody than to have one of those moments. And so that moment just resides very, very heavy on my soul, because I think it puts into real, tangible context, what is the responsibility of leadership? What is your responsibility of leadership? Naviere Walkewicz 36:42 I'm letting that sit a little bit, because I can't even imagine the amount of feeling that you had first for him, the courage to share that with you. Because I'm sure that he really wanted to share that. I'm curious if you can remember perhaps, what he might have been referring to, like what you were sharing with the men and women there. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 37:02 So, you know, it was also a part of things that, in times after Bagram have really been used for me as a senior leader on why I reinforced the importance of values. And, this was one particular incident there that really comes to mind is, and I use this when I when I talk to people, because I again, it's the consequence, and it's why our responsibility as leaders to set the right conditions and culture and all of that is so incredibly valuable. And so I talked to people about a story about we had had a situation where we had some real destabilization in the battle space. There was a particular village that we were having some unique challenges with, and we were doing a lot of kind of battlefield shaping, and we were doing some particular village engagement, and the engagement just wasn't happening. And so we were now kind of starting to escalate our interaction with the village a little bit more and as we were doing that, we were now going to start doing more shaping operations. So it just so happens that one of these nights —this was in the late fall, early winter of 2012 — and we were sending one of our patrols outside to do some shaping and engagement operation there. But this was in the evening. This was a different aspect that we were working for this particular mission. And so mounted up that the airmen are ready to go. They're pushing outside, they're right on time, and everything is going according to plan, and they are getting close to what we call the objective rally point. So that was where they were going to rally up before they actually moved into the village after that. And so everything was going according to plan. And the only thing they needed to do before they got to the objective rally point was really kind of go down a small gully over a rise, and then they meet at their objective rally point at that point. And so teams are moving out. First truck over the rise, getting to the point. Second truck over, everything's going fine. Third truck over, fourth truck after that, BOOM, off goes the IED. And what had happened is, they were waiting for this opportunity, and they knew exactly what to do. And that is, if you hit the last truck in the movement, you've got three trucks that are gone ahead of time, and now we've got folks in a very precarious situation. And so what I talk to people about, when we talk about conditions and the real impact that a leader has, is I'll talk to them about who was in that truck, who was in that MRAP that we were sending down at that point in time. And inside that MRAP was the face of America. And the explosion was significant, and it did some considerable damage. It threw the engine out of it, penetrated the hole, ripped one of the doors off the side in the front. And so, you know, the truck commander was National Guard from, actually from Tennessee, and he had gotten injured, broken an arm because that door had peeled back. And as the door peeled back, his arm got caught and broke his arm. The driver, Asian American coming out of the state of California, active duty. He had injuries to his legs because of the penetration of the hole. We had a gunner up in the turret, African American female from the New York Air National Guard. She had a broken pelvis at the time, and she just stayed on the gun the entire time despite her injuries. We had our radio operator. European American female coming from the Midwest. She was actually Air Force Reserve. She had a case of TBI from the explosion, and she was still making calls on the radio. We had two of our riflemen in the back, both came from Hispanic heritage, one of them from Puerto Rican heritage, one of them from Mexican heritage. They were very fortunate that while they got tossed around the back and had some minor TBI issues, they were more or less bumps and bruises, and they were all by themselves. Yeah, because they were all alone, they were in the middle of Afghanistan, they had just gotten hit. And so for me, what's so important about that story is that if we did not set the right culture and the right values and the right expectations and be in a leader by example, and they were harassing each other on Bagram, and they were assaulting each other on Bagram, and they weren't respecting each other on Bagram, and they didn't care about each other on Bagram, they would have died out there that night. But they treated each other like a family, and they cared about each other like a family, and they took care of each other like a family that night, and they lived and they all came home. So for me, if we're going to talk about what is the true consequence of leadership — and I use consequence deliberately, because oftentimes that's used in a pejorative manner — but this is the true result of your actions, that if you don't set those conditions, then you are legitimately putting your people at risk. And so that whole experience at Bagram, and in so many ways that we all carry our scars and our bruises and things like that. I wouldn't trade that experience for the world, but that was tough. And I often describe it as a tale of two cities. You know, it was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Naviere Walkewicz 42:34 I think a lot of times, when leaders go through experiences like that, they have some more fortunate than others, but a support network. And I would guess it would be your family. How has your family played a role in these moments in your life, in helping you as a leader? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 42:54 So I will say it's primarily my wife. I have got this wonderful support of parents and my in-laws and so forth. And what's been truly fortunate is how close I am with my in-laws. Because when Laurie and I were dating while I was a cadet, anytime I had an overnight or weekend pass, I was over at her mom and dad's house and so I think that being married to somebody that has truly known you from the beginning, you know, where, whether we got a training weekend going on, or something like that, or I'm working first BCT or whatnot, that Laurie was a unique part of all of these things. And I would say that it has been incredibly heartwarming to watch her interact with the cadets here, because it's fun, because her and I do everything together. And so as we're going to events, I'll have a group of cadets that I'm talking to, and then I'll look over and Laurie's surrounded by a group of cadets who are asking her just very insightful questions about our experiences together, and ‘Was it tough sending them away on deployments?' Or how, you know, in those tough times, ‘How do you how do you keep your marriage together?' Just really insightful questions to ask, but she has just been so central to everything that I do. And so going back a little bit and talking about, like the strength of our relationship and how much that helps, we actually needed to have that breakup period as horribly painful as that was, and wow, was I carrying a torch for her all of those years. I mean, I remember, you know, as time was going by, I would talk to my mom, and I'd be like, ‘Mom, I just wish that Laurie could see the man that I become.' But we needed that time because oftentimes, and what we found in ourselves, we didn't know it at the time, because you're living in your environment and you can't see it, right? Is that in youth, things are often absolutes. And you often will get to a place where you're starting your marriage, your relationship is growing. And if you start to talk about marriage, there are things that we have found were absolutes for us. You know, certain things that we did, how we practiced our faith. Did we open up presents on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, but the expectation was somebody was going to have to give up their particular tradition to conform to the tradition of one of the spouses. And in your youth, that seems reasonable, and I think we needed that time to be apart, having had that time together at such an important time in each of our lives here. But we needed that time apart, because I think we needed that frame of reference as we grew as people into adults. Grew as young adults. And now all of a sudden here I'm getting multiple assignments, and now being thrust into leadership positions with accountability and authority, and then coming back to that, all of a sudden, you're realizing, ‘Gosh, the world just isn't always in absolutes. And maybe a marriage doesn't have to be zero sum, but maybe a marriage can be positive sum.' And do we really have to make somebody give up something that is important to them, that is a part of their identity? Because somehow you feel like you have to conform your marriage into one side or the other. And so, I think for us that was that was so incredibly important. So to kind of get to that story is that, you know, I left Aviano and I went to Al Dhafra. I was in Al Dhafra actually for September 11. It was my first squadron command, but it was a squadron command I wasn't expecting, because I came there as a chief of security forces for about a 70-person security forces flight as a part of the 763rd Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron at Al Dhafra. And then all of a sudden, 9/11 happens, and we went from about 400 people on Al Dhafra to about 4,000. And you know, U-2s came in, ISR platforms came in. Everything changed. And all of a sudden, this 70-person security forces flight that I had grew into about a 350-person security forces squadron. And AFSET said, ‘Hey, Sherman, you built it, you keep it, and we'll replace you with a major when you leave.' And I was a six-year captain, and so then finishing up that assignment, and I got picked up for — there was a point to that story — but it was about coming back, is that, hey, I got these new, unique experiences that grew me under my belt. And then I came back to do an AFIT program at Cal State San Bernardino. And that was the moment that brought Laurie and I back together. Naviere Walkewicz In what way? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN And so, I had a health scare. Nobody knows what it was. We never figured it out. Doctors never figured it out. But it was one of those things, like, all of a sudden, I shotgun something out to everybody I knew. I said, ‘Hey, doctors are a little bit concerned, you know, keep me in your thoughts.' And so Laurie, Laurie is like, ‘Holy cow, you can't just send a one liner and leave it at that.' So she called my mom and dad and said, ‘What's his phone number?' And so it started to turn into ‘Hey, give me all of your test results after you get it back.' Then pretty soon we're talking a couple times a week, and then pretty soon we're talking every other day, and then we are talking every day. And the beauty of this was that we already knew each other, so we already knew what everybody's favorite color was — by the way, Laurie's is purple. We knew what music each other liked. We knew things about each other. And some of the things that actually drew us together when we were dating here was, you know, we had things like some common family traditions, like, you know, Italian fish on Christmas Eve and sitting around the table for hours and stuff like that were all things that we had in common. So we already knew that about each other. Now, her and I on the phone, we're getting into some real, like substantive discussions, children, faith. How do you how you raise children? How do you know, what are we going to do for different traditions? What happens if I have to take a remote; what does that mean? And so we were getting into these really, deep conversations. And, you know, I would come back from either class or then when I PCs to the security forces center out at Lackland, you know, I would come home from work, and this was in the old flip phone days where you had a battery that came off the back. So I would have one battery in the charger, and then I would have an earbud in, and I'd have the phone in my pocket. Yeah, and I'd come home and to call her, and we would just go throughout the evening. So I'm ironing BDUs at the time, shining my boots and stuff like that, and so, and we were just talking. And then we were just kind of like living life together. And, after that point, it became very clear that those two young people who sincerely cared about each other, now, each of us grew up and had experiences in a place that allowed us to really appreciate each other and really love each other. And you know, we were married just a little over a year after that. And it has been phenomenal, her support. And I think one of the great testaments to that was, 10 days after we got married, I went to Baghdad, but she's like, ‘I grew up in the Air Force. I know how this works. We're gonna move the house. I'll get the house put together.' And she's also a professional in her own right, which is great. So she was working in a legal office here as a paralegal and legal assistant here in Colorado Springs, and has been a GS employee for the last 18-plus years. So what's great is she, too has her own aspect of service. What I love about it is that in the jobs that she's in and then the jobs that I'm in, we can talk shop, and then we cannot talk shop, right? And so she's the first person I go to if I have to ask a question, she's the first person that I'll go to say, ‘Hey, did I do that right? Or do I need to backtrack on that a little bit?' Because she knows me, and she knows me completely, and that level of trust and love and faith that we have for each other has truly enabled me to be able to serve our airmen on a level that I don't think would have been possible without her. Naviere Walkewicz 51:59 Would you say that she's had a role in your development as a leader, in the way that you lead. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 52:05 Oh, absolutely, absolutely, because, and I love it, because her experience as a brat and her dad as a chief gives her a very unique lens to look through. And so the advice that she gives me she can give me from her teenage self in some way, you know, from that experience, watching how her dad interacted with something or knowing her aspect about this. And then as she's developed professionally, working on the E-Ring at the Pentagon a couple different times, working for very senior leaders, knows how to navigate that space. So then I'll go to her for advice, like, ‘Hey, how did your boss handle something like this?' ‘Well, let me tell you what, how we work through this...' And so I would absolutely say that that Laurie has uniquely influenced and helped me to become the best version of myself that I can be. Naviere Walkewicz 53:03 Wow. Well, I want to ask you a little bit about developing yourself as well, because one of the questions we like to ask is, what are you doing every day to make yourself a better leader? Can you share what that might be? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 53:17 I've said it a couple times during this: I truly believe that leadership is a human experience, so for me, it's about the interaction. And so oftentimes, advice that I've given to people — like there are amazing resources abound that can help people, give people leadership perspectives, and we can either learn it from history, or we can learn it through study. We can learn it through analysis. We can learn it through books. And I've always talked to people about use the external tools that help to grow you, but make sure that you're using it to influence the personality that you already have. Because oftentimes what happens is, is that people will have this really strong desire to say, “OK, I want to make sure that I do this right. And so in doing this right, let me make sure I've got my checklist, and so I'm going to greet them, I'm going to ask them how their family is, I'm going to ask them if the kid did all right in the baseball game. And I'm going to go through my checklist, and if I do that, I fulfill my leadership obligation.' Now not everybody does, and I'm making generalities on but, but I think that there can oftentimes be the allure that when you are focusing on what may be the theory or the principle of the day, and not using it to supplement and grow and mature your personality, that there is a strong allure to want to wholesale replicate what it was that you learned, and you're doing it in a noble place. It's not nefarious. It's being done in a noble, genuine place. But there's that allure to say, ‘OK, good, I really like what I've learned. I'm going to do these things and step through.' And so why I talk so much about the experience, and why I talk so much about the interaction, is that the more that you know the people that you may be influencing by just simply being there and understanding what that means. It means you're eternalizing the value of your presence. You're listening to their stories, and you're understanding for them, what are the things that are motivating them? What are the things that they value? Because each generation, each environment, each condition is going to require something a little bit different from you, and if you don't take the time to understand your environment or generation or cultural nuances or things like that on where you're at, then you are missing that opportunity to develop trust, where they start to believe in you as a person, and not just the rank and position that you hold, because they'll do the right thing for the rank and position that you hold. That's the caliber of people that we have in this Air Force of ours. They'll do the right thing. But if you transcend that in the fact that they believe in you wholeheartedly and trust you, oftentimes with their own lives, it means that you've invested something into them, where they truly know that you care. And that goes back to that A1C on the cork board that said, ‘I need somebody who cares about me as a person.' Naviere Walkewicz 56:41 You know, as I think about what you've experienced through your career and the lessons you've learned, both professionally and personally, what would you say to yourself back then that you should be doing back then to get to where you're at now? Because we have listeners that are like, ‘What can I start planting today, that will bloom down the road?' MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 57:03 Absolutely. And so I think if I was to go back and put my arm around Cadet First Class Sherman, I think what I would do is — because it is, it is oftentimes easy to look in the crystal clear mirror of hindsight, right? But I think instead, what I would do is I would put my arm around him and say, ‘Keep following your heart and let the failures happen, because the failures are going to grow and let the stumbles happen and enjoy the triumphs with people and be appreciative for what got you there.' And I think it would be more of the encouragement of like, ‘You have laid out a path for you take the path wherever it goes, the joy, the pain, the triumph, the failure, all of those things, because all of that helps to develop the leader.' And oftentimes you want to go back and say, gosh, if I was going to talk to my previous self, then I would say, ‘Ah, don't do that one thing,' right? But I'm looking at it saying that if I didn't do that one thing, then I'm not sure that I would be where I'm at at a time to make sure I didn't do that thing at a moment that was incredibly catastrophic. And so while we have this desire to want to prevent ourselves from the failure, I think that what we have to do is say you're going to fail and you need to fail, and it's going to sound — relish in the failure, because it is often emotionally troubling, especially those of us that come here because we are Type A perfectionist, and that's part of the draw of coming to this amazing place. Is there a certain personality traits that help us to be successful here, but not all of those personality traits make us uniquely successful in all situations outside, and so you've got to have that failure at some point in time. And the failure that you can get up and say, ‘OK, I did this. This happened. My soul is bruised. My ego is bruised. I may have to take a little bit of accountability for this. OK, now I need to have the courage to take the next step forward again.' Because I could easily retreat back to a safe place, and I could become risk averse, and all that does is hurt the people around you. OK. I have to have the courage to breathe and take the step again and get back in there. So I would tell my — I don't think I would want to prevent myself from doing anything. I think even the growth that took place while Laurie and I were apart — and, like I said, that torch that I carried for her — I think if I had whispered in my ear and said, ‘Hey, just relax, you're gonna marry her.' I think I needed that torch, because that in my own mind and my own emotion was me needing to become a better man, and so I think I needed to go through — like, sometimes you need the struggle, and sometimes the things that are most valuable are the things that you had to go through the struggle for, right? And I think that's where my blue collar ethics background comes in. It's like, I'm just going to roll up my sleeves and I'm going to work through the struggle. Naviere Walkewicz 1:00:36 Wow. Well, we took a look back. I just want to ask you a question forward. So do you think about legacy? And what do you want your legacy to be? Is that something that plays in your mind as you wake up each morning or go to lead people? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 1:00:50 I think the way that I look at it is, I look at it in a in a different aspect, and the way that I look at it is in a very confined point to point. It's not about what is going to be Tom Sherman's legacy when he retires someday, but was that interaction that I had with somebody to give them some encouraging words when they fell down, did that matter to them at that moment? Because there are people for me in my failures that were commanders, that were leaders, that were mentors, that were senior enlisted, that, you know, grabbed that lieutenant by the arm and helped to lift me up. And their memories are etched in my fabric. And so I think that it's about that individual event that your legacy will live in the people in which you made a difference to them. Naviere Walkewicz 1:01:49 Well, I'll share with you, I was telling my son — he's a cadet, a third-class cadet, actually, now he's about to be a C2C — that I was doing this podcast with you, and he said, ‘What an incredible leader, Mom, he motivates me. He's so inspiring.' So your legacy is already through my son— MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 1:02:05 Thank you! That means — thank you so much for sharing. Naviere Walkewicz 1:02:10 —that you really made an impact. So we're going to get to your final thoughts here in a little bit. But before we do, I want to make sure that you know our podcasts publish on every second Tuesday of the month, and you can certainly listen to Gen. Sherman in any of our other podcasts on longblueleadership.org. So Gen. Sherman, what would you like to leave our listeners with today? This has been incredible, by the way. Thank you. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 1:02:32 I have truly enjoyed this, and it's just been — it was just wonderful having the conversation with you, and it's in real honor to be a part of this. I truly believe in what you're doing here. Naviere Walkewicz 1:02:43 Thank you. It's my pleasure to help share your story and help inspire others. And is there anything we might leave with our listeners that that they can part with tonight? MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 1:02:51 I think, for me, you need to love what you do and love I think, is one of the most powerful words in language. And I don't just say the English language. I say in language because of the strength behind the meaning and how wide the meaning can be impactful. If you love what you do, people will feel that your very presence will make a difference. They'll feel that if you love what you do, then you're being, you know, internally, inspired by the love that you have for what you're being a part of, right? If you love and care about your people, they will follow you to the ends of the Earth, because they know the passion that you have and the belief that you have in them. So I think that as we go back to these things, we oftentimes look at the terms of courage and love may seem diametrically opposed, and I would attest that you can be most courageous and that your courage will be most effective only when it's buttressed by the love that you have in what you do and who you do it with. Naviere Walkewicz 1:04:08 Thank you, sir, for that. Thank you for being on Long Blue Leadership. MAJ. GEN. SHERMAN 1:04:11 Absolutely. Thank you. This was a wonderful time. It was a real honor. Naviere Walkewicz 1:04:14 Thank you. Well, until next time, I'm Naviere Walkewicz. We'll see you on Long Blue Leadership. KEYWORDS Leadership, Air Force Academy, Major General Thomas P. Sherman, mentorship, personal growth, security forces, work-life balance, family support, continuous improvement, legacy The Long Blue Line Podcast Network is presented by the U.S. Air Force Academy Association & Foundation
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Today, Pastor JD will explain that it's a person’s choice whether to accept the truth of Jesus as presented in the Scriptures. To receive the truth and the love God offers is in keeping with His teachings, “This is love for God: to obey His commands”. Conversely, to know the truth and not obey it is to face the wrath of God.
Your health journey begins in the soil. This fascinating conversation between nutritionist Kara Kroger and Amy Milliron of Fearless Farmers reveals the profound connections between environmental and human health that most of us don't fully understand how to integrate into our shopping and eating habits.Driven by the loss of her father to cancer related to Agent Orange exposure, Kara has dedicated her career to understanding how our environment shapes our wellbeing. She shares the remarkable parallel between soil and gut microbiomes—both functioning as complex digestive systems that either thrive or suffer based on what they are fed. When we nourish the soil properly, it produces nutrient-dense foods that support our gut health. Conversely, when we nourish our gut properly, we experience better digestion, improved immunity, and even a more positive mood.Contrary to popular belief, transforming your gut health doesn't require expensive supplements or complicated regimens. Kara demonstrates how simple interventions like increasing fiber intake from diverse plant sources and staying properly hydrated can create dramatic improvements, sharing a client story where these basic changes resolved 80% of post-cancer digestive issues within just two weeks. She illuminates how phytonutrients from plants support microbial diversity in both soil and gut, creating a continuous cycle of health that extends from the land to our bodies.Most powerfully, this episode offers practical tools that you can implement immediately, while introducing an upcoming three-part webinar series, "Harvesting Health," which will guide participants through creating personalized gut health protocols. Whether you're dealing with chronic health issues, curious about the environmental impact of your food choices, or want to optimize your wellbeing, this episode provides a roadmap for understanding the inextricable link between the health of our planet and the health of our bodies. Register for the webinar series at learnfearlessfarmers.org/course/harvesting-health or join Kara's email list for weekly gut health tips that can transform your relationship with food.Register for Harvesting Health 3-Part Webinar Series.Join Kara's Mailing List for Weekly Gut Health Tidbits.Learn About Kara's Balance Your Gut Personalized Nutrition Coaching Program - Break free from abdominal pain, gas, bloat, altered bowel movements, indigestion, and reflux symptoms - often in 4 months or less with personalized nutrition coaching.Visit the Land Food Life Website.
On June 18, 2025, the Supreme Court released its decisions for two circuit splits arising under the Clean Air Act (CAA) provision regarding judicial venue: EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, L.L.C. (23-1229), and Oklahoma v. EPA (23-1067). Decided 7-2 and 8-0, respectively, the outcome of these cases hinged on the Court’s interpretation of the CAA’s unique venue provision, 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b)(1). The CAA states that challenges to “nationally applicable” actions may be filed only in the D.C. Circuit. 42 U.S.C. § 7607(b)(1). Conversely, challenges to CAA actions that are “locally or regionally applicable” may generally be filed only in the appropriate circuit court for the region. Id. But there is an exception: actions that are “based on a determination of nationwide scope or effect” must be filed in the D.C. Circuit “if in taking such action the Administrator finds and publishes that such action is based on such a determination.” Id.In Calumet, the Court ruled 7-2 that the “EPA’s denials of small refinery exemption petitions are locally or regionally applicable actions that fall within the “nationwide scope or effect” exception, requiring venue in the D.C. Circuit.” Similarly, in Oklahoma, the Court ruled 8-0 that “EPA’s disapprovals of the Oklahoma and Utah state implementation plans are locally or regionally applicable actions reviewable in a regional court of appeals.” Tune in as Jimmy Conde and Garrett Kral offer a breakdown of these decisions.Featuring:James Conde, Partner, Boyden Gray PLLCModerator: Garrett Kral, Administrative and Environmental Law Attorney--To register, click the link above.
Last time we spoke about Operation Chahar. In July 1937, the tensions between Japan and China erupted into a full-scale conflict, ignited by the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. Following a series of aggressive Japanese military maneuvers, Chiang Kai-shek, then enjoying a brief respite at Kuling, learned of the escalating clashes and prepared for battle. Confident that China was primed for resistance, he rallied his nation, demanding that Japan accept responsibility and respect China's sovereignty. The Japanese launched their offensive, rapidly capturing key positions in Northern China. Notably, fierce battle ensued in Jinghai, where Chinese soldiers, led by Brigade Commander Li Zhiyuan, valiantly defended against overwhelming forces using guerrilla tactics and direct assaults. Their spirit was symbolized by a courageous “death squad” that charged the enemy, inflicting serious casualties despite facing dire odds. As weeks passed, the conflict intensified with brutal assaults on Nankou. Chinese defenses, though valiant, were ultimately overwhelmed, leading to heavy casualties on both sides. Despite losing Nankou, the indomitable Chinese spirit inspired continued resistance against the Japanese invaders, foreshadowing a long, brutal war that would reshape East Asia. #156 The Battle of Shanghai Part 1: The Beginning of the Battle of Shanghai Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. On August 9, a bullet riddled sedan screeched to an abrupt halt at the entrance to the Hongqiao airport along Monument Road. The gruesome scene on the dashboard revealed that one of the victims had died in the car. He had been dragged out and subjected to brutal slashing, kicking, and beating until his body was a mangled mess. Half of his face was missing, and his stomach had been cut open, exposing the sickly pallor of his intestines, faintly glimmering in the night. The other man had managed to escape the vehicle but only got a few paces away before he was gunned down. A short distance away lay a third body, dressed in a Chinese uniform. Investigators swiftly identified the badly mangled body as belonging to 27-year-old Sub-Lieutenant Oyama Isao, while the other deceased Japanese man was his driver, First Class Seaman Saito Yozo. The identity of the Chinese victim remained a mystery. At first glance, the scene appeared to be the aftermath of a straightforward shootout. However, numerous questions lingered: What were the Japanese doing at a military airfield miles from their barracks? Who had fired the first shot, and what had prompted that decision? The Chinese investigators and their Japanese counterparts were at odds over the answers to these questions. As they walked the crime scene, searching for evidence, loud arguments erupted repeatedly. By the time the sun began to rise, they concluded their investigation without reaching any consensus on what had transpired. They climbed into their cars and made their way back to the city. The investigators were acutely aware of the repercussions if they failed to handle their delicate task with the necessary finesse. Despite their hopes for peace, it was evident that Shanghai was a city bracing for war. As they drove through the dimly lit suburbs on their way from Hongqiao back to their downtown offices, their headlights illuminated whitewashed trees, interspersed with sandbag defenses and the silhouettes of solitary Chinese sentries. Officially, these sentries were part of the Peace Preservation Corps, a paramilitary unit that, due to an international agreement reached a few years earlier, was the only Chinese force allowed to remain in the Shanghai area. In the hours that followed, both sides presented their versions of the incident. According to the Chinese account, the Japanese vehicle attempted to force its way through the airport gate. When members of the Peace Preservation Corps stationed at the entrance signaled for Saito, the driver, to stop, he abruptly turned the car around. Sub-Lieutenant Oyama then fired at the Chinese guards with an automatic pistol. Only then did the Chinese return fire, killing Oyama in a hail of bullets. Saito managed to jump out before he, too, was gunned down. The commander of the Chinese guards told a Western reporter that this wasn't the first time someone Japanese had attempted to enter the airport. Such incidents had occurred repeatedly in the past two months, leading them to believe that the Japanese were “obviously undertaking espionage.” The Japanese account, predictably, placed the blame for the entire incident squarely on China. It asserted that Oyama had been driving along a road bordering the airfield with no intention of entering. Suddenly, the vehicle was stopped and surrounded by Peace Preservation Corps troops, who opened fire with rifles and machine guns without warning. Oyama had no opportunity to return fire. The Japanese statement argued that the two men had every right to use the road, which was part of the International Settlement, and labeled the incident a clear violation of the 1932 peace agreement. “We demand that the Chinese bear responsibility for this illegal act,”. Regardless of either side, it seemed likely to everyone in the region, war would soon engulf Shanghai. Meanwhile, as the Marco Polo Bridge Incident escalated into a full blown in the far north, General Zhang Fakui was attending a routine training mission at Mount Lu in southeastern Jiangxi. A short and small man, not considered too handsome either, Zhang had earned his place in China's leadership through physical courage, once taking a stand on a bridge and single handedly facing down an enemy army. He was 41 years old in 1937, having spent half his life fighting Warlords, Communists and sometimes even Nationalists. In the recent years he had tossed his lot in with a rebel campaign against Chiang Kai-Shek, who surprisingly went on the forgive him and placed him in charge of anti communist operations in the area due south of Shanghai. However now the enemy seemed to have changed. As the war spread to Beijing, on July 16th, Zhang was sent to Chiang Kai-Shek's summer residence at Mount Lu alongside 150 members of China's political and military elites. They were all there to brainstorm how to fight the Japanese. Years prior the Generalissimo had made it doctrine to appease the Japanese but now he made grandiose statements such as “this time we must fight to the end”. Afterwards Chiang dealt missions to all his commanders and Zhang Fakui was told to prepare for operations in the Shanghai area. It had been apparent for weeks that both China and Japan were preparing for war in central China. The Japanese had been diverting naval troops from the north to strengthen their forces in Shanghai, and by early August, they had assembled over 8,000 troops. A few days later, approximately thirty-two naval vessels arrived. On July 31, Chiang declared that “all hope for peace has been lost.” Chiang had been reluctant to commit his best forces to defend northern China, an area he had never truly controlled. In contrast, Shanghai was central to his strategy for the war against Japan. Chiang decided to deploy his finest troops, the 87th and 88th Divisions, which were trained by generals under the guidance of the German advisor von Falkenhausen, who had high hopes for their performance against the Japanese. In doing so, Chiang aimed to demonstrate to both his own people and the wider world that the Chinese could and would resist the invader. Meanwhile, Chiang's spy chief, Dai Li, was busy gathering intelligence on Japanese intentions regarding Shanghai, a challenging task given his focus in recent years. Dai, one of the most sinister figures in modern Chinese history, had devoted far more energy and resources to suppressing the Communists than to countering the Japanese. As a result, by the critical summer of 1937, he had built only a sparse network of agents in “Little Tokyo,” the Hongkou area of Shanghai dominated by Japanese businesses. One agent was a pawnshop owner, while the rest were double agents employed as local staff within the Japanese security apparatus. Unfortunately, they could provide little more than snippets, rumors, and hearsay. While some of this information sounded alarmingly dire, there was almost no actionable intelligence. Chiang did not take the decision to open a new front in Shanghai lightly. Built on both banks of the Huangpu River, the city served as the junction between the Pacific Ocean to the east and the great Yangtze River, which wound thousands of kilometers inland to the west. Shanghai embodied everything that represented modern China, from its industry and labor relations to its connections with the outside world. While foreign diplomatic presence was concentrated in nearby Nanjing, the capital, it was in Shanghai that the foreign community gauged the country's mood. Foreigners in the city's two “concession” areas nthe French Concession and the British-affiliated International Settlement often dismissed towns beyond Shanghai as mere “outstations.” Chiang Kai-shek would throw 650,000 troops into the battle for the city and its environs as well as his modest air force of 200 aircraft. Chiang, whose forces were being advised by German officers led by General Alexander von Falkenhausen, was finally confident that his forces could take on the Japanese. A German officer told a British diplomat, “If the Chinese Army follows the advice of the German advisers, it is capable of driving the Japanese over the Great Wall.” While Chiang was groping in the dark, deprived of the eyes and ears of an efficient intelligence service, he did have at his disposal an army that was better prepared for battle than it had been in 1932. Stung by the experience of previous conflicts with the Japanese, Chiang had initiated a modernization program aimed at equipping the armed forces not only to suppress Communist rebels but also to confront a modern fighting force equipped with tanks, artillery, and aircraft. He had made progress, but it was insufficient. Serious weaknesses persisted, and now there was no time for any remedial action. While China appeared to be a formidable power in sheer numbers, the figures were misleading. On the eve of war, the Chinese military was comprised of a total of 176 divisions, which were theoretically organized into two brigades of two regiments each. However, only about 20 divisions maintained full peacetime strength of 10,000 soldiers and officers; the rest typically held around 5,000 men. Moreover, Chiang controlled only 31 divisions personally, and he could not count on the loyalty of the others. To successfully resist Japan, Chiang would need to rely not only on his military command skills but also on his ability to forge fragile coalitions among Warlord generals with strong local loyalties. Equipment posed another significant challenge. The modernization drive was not set to complete until late 1938, and the impact of this delay was evident. In every category of weaponry, from rifles to field artillery, the Chinese were outmatched by their Japanese adversaries, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Domestically manufactured artillery pieces had shorter ranges, and substandard steel-making technology caused gun barrels to overheat, increasing the risk of explosions. Some arms even dated back to imperial times. A large proportion of the Chinese infantry had received no proper training in basic tactics, let alone in coordinated operations involving armor and artillery. The chief of the German advisory corps was General Alexander von Falkenhausen, a figure hard to rival in terms of qualifications for the role. Although the 58-year-old's narrow shoulders, curved back, and bald, vulture-like head gave him an unmilitary, almost avian appearance, his exterior belied a tough character. In 1918, he had earned his nation's highest military honor, the Pour le Mérite, while assisting Germany's Ottoman allies against the British in Palestine. Few, if any, German officers knew Asia as well as he did. His experience in the region dated back to the turn of the century. As a young lieutenant in the Third East Asian Infantry Regiment, he participated in the international coalition of colonial powers that quelled the Boxer Rebellion in 1900. A decade later, he traveled through Korea, Manchuria, and northern China with his wife, keenly observing and learning as a curious tourist. From 1912 to 1914, he served as the German Kaiser's military attaché in Tokyo. He was poised to put his extensive knowledge to good use in the months ahead. Chiang believed that Shanghai should be the location of the first battle. This decision was heavily influenced by Falkenhausen and was strategically sound. Chiang Kai-shek could not hope to win a war against Japan unless he could unify the nation behind him, particularly the many fractious warlords who had battled his forces repeatedly over the past decade. Everyone understood that the territory Japan was demanding in the far north did not need to be held for any genuine military necessity; it was land that could be negotiated. The warlords occupying that territory were unpredictable and all too willing to engage in bargaining. In contrast, China's economic heartland held different significance. By choosing to fight for the center of the country and deploying his strongest military units, Chiang Kai-shek signaled to both China's warlords and potential foreign allies that he had a vested interest in the outcome. There were also several operational reasons for preferring a conflict in the Yangtze River basin over a campaign in northern China. The rivers, lakes, and rice paddies of the Yangtze delta were much better suited for defensive warfare against Japan's mechanized forces than the flat plains of North China. By forcing the Japanese to commit troops to central China, the Nationalists bought themselves the time needed to rally and reinforce their faltering defenses in the north. By initiating hostilities in the Shanghai area, Japan would be forced to divert its attention from the northern front, thereby stalling a potential Japanese advance toward the crucial city of Wuhan. It would also help safeguard potential supply routes from the Soviet Union, the most likely source of material assistance due to Moscow's own animosity toward Japan. It was a clever plan, and surprisingly, the Japanese did not anticipate it. Intelligence officers in Tokyo were convinced that Chiang would send his troops northward instead. Again in late July, Chiang convened his commanders, and here he gave Zhang Fukai more detailed instructions for his operation. Fukai was placed in charge of the right wing of the army which was currently preparing for action in the metropolitan area. Fukai would oversee the forces east of the Huangpu River in the area known as Pudong. Pudong was full of warehouses, factories and rice fields, quite precarious to fight in. Meanwhile General Zhang Zhizhong, a quiet and sickly looking man who had previously led the Central Military Academy was to command the left wing of the Huangpu. All of the officers agreed the plan to force the battle to the Shanghai area was logical as the northern region near Beijing was far too open, giving the advantage to tank warfare, which they could not hope to contest Japan upon. The Shanghai area, full of rivers, creaks and urban environments favored them much more. Zhang Zhizhong seemed an ideal pick to lead troops in downtown Shanghai where most of the fighting would take place. His position of commandant of the military academy allowed him to establish connections with junior officers earmarked for rapid promotion. This meant that he personally knew the generals of both the 87th and 88th Divisions, which were to form the core of Zhang Zhizhong's newly established 9th Army Group and become his primary assets in the early phases of the Shanghai campaign. Moreover, Zhang Zhizhong had the right aggressive instincts. He believed that China's confrontation with Japan had evolved through three stages: in the first stage, the Japanese invaded the northeast in 1931, and China remained passive; in the second stage, during the first battle of Shanghai in 1932, Japan struck, but China fought back. Zhang argued that this would be the third stage, where Japan was preparing to attack, but China would strike first. It seems that Zhang Zhizhong did not expect to survive this final showdown with his Japanese adversary. He took the fight very personally, even ordering his daughter to interrupt her education in England and return home to serve her country in the war. However, he was not the strong commander he appeared to be, as he was seriously ill. Although he never disclosed the true extent of his condition, it seemed he was on the verge of a physical and mental breakdown after years in high-stress positions. In fact, he had recently taken a leave of absence from his role at the military academy in the spring of 1937. When the war broke out, he was at a hospital in the northern port city of Qingdao, preparing to go abroad for convalescence. He canceled those plans to contribute to the struggle against Japan. When his daughter returned from England and saw him on the eve of battle, she was alarmed by how emaciated he had become. From the outset, doubts about his physical fitness to command loomed large. At 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday, August 10, a group of officers emerged from the Japanese Consulate along the banks of the Huangpu River. This team was a hastily assembled Sino-Japanese joint investigation unit tasked with quickly resolving the shooting incident at the Hongqiao Aerodrome of the previous night. They understood the urgency of reaching an agreement swiftly to prevent any escalation. As they drove to the airport, they passed armed guards of the Chinese Peace Preservation Corps stationed behind sandbag barricades that had been erected only hours earlier. Upon arriving at Hongqiao, the officers walked up and down the scene of the incident under the scorching sun, attempting to piece together a shared understanding of what had transpired. However, this proved to be nearly impossible, as the evidence failed to align into a coherent account acceptable to both parties. The Japanese were unconvinced that any shootout had occurred at all. Oyama, the officer who had been in the car, had left his pistol at the marine headquarters in Hongkou and had been unarmed the night before. They insisted that whoever shot and killed the man in the Chinese uniform could not have been him. By 6:00 pm the investigators returned to the city. Foreign correspondents, eager for information, knew exactly whom to approach. The newly appointed Shanghai Mayor, Yu Hongjun, with a quick wit and proficiency in English, Yu represented the city's cosmopolitan image. However, that evening, he had little to offer the reporters, except for a plea directed at both the Japanese and Chinese factions “Both sides should maintain a calm demeanor to prevent the situation from escalating.” Mayor Yu however was, in fact, at the center of a complex act of deception that nearly succeeded. Nearly eight decades later, Zhang Fakui attributed the incident to members of the 88th Division, led by General Sun Yuanliang. “A small group of Sun Yuanliang's men disguised themselves as members of the Peace Preservation Corps,” Zhang Fakui recounted years later in his old age. “On August 9, 1937, they encountered two Japanese servicemen on the road near the Hongqiao military aerodrome and accused them of forcing their way into the area. A clash ensued, resulting in the deaths of the Japanese soldiers.” This created a delicate dilemma for their superiors. The two dead Japanese soldiers were difficult to explain away. Mayor Yu, likely informed of the predicament by military officials, conferred with Tong Yuanliang, chief of staff of the Songhu Garrison Command, a unit established after the fighting in 1932. Together, they devised a quick and cynical plan to portray the situation as one of self-defense by the Chinese guards. Under their orders, soldiers marched a Chinese death row inmate to the airport gate, dressed him in a paramilitary guard's uniform, and executed him. While this desperate ruse might have worked initially, it quickly unraveled due to the discrepancies raised by the condition of the Chinese body. The Japanese did not believe the story, and the entire plan began to fall apart. Any remaining mutual trust swiftly evaporated. Instead of preventing a confrontation, the cover-up was accelerating the slide into war. Late on August 10, Mayor Yu sent a secret cable to Nanjing, warning that the Japanese had ominously declared they would not allow the two deaths at the airport to go unpunished. The following day, the Japanese Consul General Okamoto Suemasa paid a visit to the mayor, demanding the complete withdrawal of the Peace Preservation Corps from the Shanghai area and the dismantling of all fortifications established by the corps. For the Chinese, acquiescing to these demands was nearly impossible. From their perspective, it appeared that the Japanese aimed to leave Shanghai defenseless while simultaneously bolstering their own military presence in the city. Twenty vessels, including cruisers and destroyers, sailed up the Huangpu River and docked at wharves near "Little Tokyo." Japanese marines in olive-green uniforms marched ashore down the gangplanks, while women from the local Japanese community, dressed in kimonos, greeted the troops with delighted smiles and bows to the flags of the Rising Sun that proudly adorned the sterns of the battleships. In fact, Japan had planned to deploy additional troops to Shanghai even before the shooting at Hongqiao Aerodrome. This decision was deemed necessary to reinforce the small contingent of 2,500 marines permanently stationed in the city. More troops were required to assist in protecting Japanese nationals who were being hastily evacuated from the larger cities along the Yangtze River. These actions were primarily defensive maneuvers, as the Japanese military seemed hesitant to open a second front in Shanghai, for the same reasons that the Chinese preferred an extension of hostilities to that area. Diverting Japanese troops from the strategically critical north and the Soviet threat across China's border would weaken their position, especially given that urban warfare would diminish the advantages of their technological superiority in tanks and aircraft. While officers in the Japanese Navy believed it was becoming increasingly difficult to prevent the war from spreading to Shanghai, they were willing to give diplomacy one last chance. Conversely, the Japanese Army was eager to wage war in northern China but displayed little inclination to engage in hostilities in Shanghai. Should the situation worsen, the Army preferred to withdraw all Japanese nationals from the city. Ultimately, when it agreed to formulate plans for dispatching an expeditionary force to Shanghai, it did so reluctantly, primarily to avoid accusations of neglecting its responsibilities. Amongst many commanders longing for a swift confrontation with Japan was Zhang Zhizhong. By the end of July, he was growing increasingly impatient, waiting with his troops in the Suzhou area west of Shanghai and questioning whether a unique opportunity was being squandered. On July 30, he sent a telegram to Nanjing requesting permission to strike first. He argued that if Japan were allowed to launch an attack on Shanghai, he would waste valuable time moving his troops from their position more than 50 miles away. Nanjing responded with a promise that his wishes would be fulfilled but urged him to exercise patience: “We should indeed seize the initiative over the enemy, but we must wait until the right opportunity arises. Await further orders.” That opportunity arose on August 11, with the Japanese display of force on the Huangpu River and their public demand for the withdrawal of China's paramilitary police. Japan had sufficiently revealed itself as the aggressor in the eyes of both domestic and international audiences, making it safe for China to take action. At 9:00 p.m. that evening, Zhang Zhizhong received orders from Nanjing to move his troops toward Shanghai. He acted with remarkable speed, capitalizing on the extensive transportation network in the region. The soldiers of the 87th Division quickly boarded 300 trucks that had been prepared in advance. Meanwhile, civilian passengers on trains were unceremoniously ordered off to make room for the 88th Division, which boarded the carriages heading for Shanghai. In total, over 20,000 motivated and well-equipped troops were on their way to battle. On August 12, representatives from the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Italy, Japan, and China gathered for a joint conference in Shanghai to discuss ceasefire terms. Japan demanded the withdrawal of Chinese troops from Shanghai, while the Chinese representative, Yu Hung-chun, dismissed the Japanese demand, stating that the terms of the ceasefire had already been violated by Japan. The major powers were keen to avoid a repeat of the January 28 Incident, which had significantly disrupted foreign economic activities in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Chinese citizens fervently welcomed the presence of Chinese troops in the city. In Nanjing, Chinese and Japanese representatives convened for the last time in a final effort to negotiate. The Japanese insisted that all Peace Preservation Corps and regular troops be withdrawn from the vicinity of Shanghai. The Chinese, however, deemed the demand for a unilateral withdrawal unacceptable, given that the two nations were already engaged in conflict in North China. Ultimately, Mayor Yu made it clear that the most the Chinese government would concede was that Chinese troops would not fire unless fired upon. Conversely, Japan placed all responsibility on China, citing the deployment of Chinese troops around Shanghai as the cause of the escalating tensions. Negotiations proved impossible, leaving no alternative but for the war to spread into Central China. On that same morning of Thursday, August 12, residents near Shanghai's North Train Station, also known as Zhabei Station, just a few blocks from "Little Tokyo," awoke to an unusual sight: thousands of soldiers dressed in the khaki uniforms of the Chinese Nationalists, wearing German-style helmets and carrying stick grenades slung across their chests. “Where do you come from?” the Shanghai citizens asked. “How did you get here so fast?” Zhang Zhizhong issued detailed orders to each unit under his command, instructing the 88th Division specifically to travel by train and deploy in a line from the town of Zhenru to Dachang village, both located a few miles west of Shanghai. Only later was the division supposed to advance toward a position stretching from the Zhabei district to the town of Jiangwan, placing it closer to the city boundaries. Zhang Zhizhong was the embodiment of belligerence, but he faced even more aggressive officers among his ranks. On the morning of August 12, he was approached by Liu Jingchi, the chief of operations at the Songhu Garrison Command. Liu argued that the battle of 1932 had gone poorly for the Chinese because they had hesitated and failed to strike first. This time, he insisted, should be different, and Zhang should order an all-out assault on the Japanese positions that very evening. Zhang countered that he had clear and unmistakable orders from Chiang Kai-shek to let the Japanese fire first, emphasizing the importance of maintaining China's image on the world stage. “That's easy,” Liu retorted. “Once all the units are deployed and ready to attack, we can just change some people into mufti and send them in to fire a few shots. We attack, and simultaneously, we report that the enemy's offensive has begun.” Zhang Zhizhong did not like this idea. “We can't go behind our leader's back like that,” he replied. Zhang Zhizhong's position was far from enviable. Forced to rein in eager and capable officers, he found himself acting against his own personal desires. Ultimately, he decided to seek the freedom to act as he saw fit. In a secret cable to Nanjing, he requested permission to launch an all-out attack on the Japanese positions in Shanghai the following day, Friday, August 13. He argued that this was a unique opportunity to capitalize on the momentum created by the movement of troops; any further delay would only lead to stagnation. He proposed a coordinated assault that would also involve the Chinese Air Force. However, the reply from Chiang Kai-shek was brief and unwavering: “Await further orders.” Even as Chiang's troops poured into Shanghai, Chinese and Japanese officials continued their discussions. Ostensibly, this was in hopes of reaching a last-minute solution, but in reality, it was a performance. Both sides wanted to claim the moral high ground in a battle that now seemed inevitable. They understood that whoever openly declared an end to negotiations would automatically be perceived as the aggressor. During talks at the Shanghai Municipal Council, Japanese Consul General Okamoto argued that if China truly wanted peace, it would have withdrawn its troops to a position that would prevent clashes. Mayor Yu responded by highlighting the increasing presence of Japanese forces in the city. “Under such circumstances, China must adopt such measures as necessary for self-defense,” he stated. Late on August 13, 1937, Chiang Kai-shek instructed his forces to defend Shanghai, commanding them to "divert the enemy at sea, secure the coast, and resist landings." I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. In July 1937, tensions between Japan and China escalated into war following the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. Confident in his country's resolve, Chiang Kai-shek rallied the Chinese against Japanese aggression. On August 9, a deadly confrontation at Hongqiao Airport resulted in the deaths of Japanese soldiers, igniting further hostilities. As both sides blamed each other, the atmosphere became tense. Ultimately, negotiations failed, and the stage was set for a brutal conflict in Shanghai, marking the beginning of a long and devastating war.
Leslie Grandy, a seasoned executive with leadership roles at Apple, Amazon, Best Buy, and T-Mobile, discusses the underestimated nature of creative capability and how leaders can systematically cultivate it. Drawing from her early career in the film industry and later product leadership across Fortune 50 companies, she presents a grounded, practical perspective on how creativity functions in high-performance environments. She outlines three foundational skills transferable across domains: enduring ambiguity with resilience, sustaining momentum in the absence of external validation, and solving unfamiliar problems with resourcefulness rather than prescribed playbooks. These competencies, shaped by years in unpredictable contexts, later enabled her to thrive in zero-to-one product environments at scale. Grandy also offers insight into organizational enablers and constraints for creative velocity. She identifies cultures that treat creativity as the remit of all functions, not just design or strategy, as more adaptive and resilient. Conversely, she cautions against consensus-driven thinking and status quo bias, which she sees as systemic inhibitors. The most effective environments, she argues, reward structured risk-taking and integrate post-mortem learning with equal weight to successes. Reflecting on her time reporting to Steve Jobs, Grandy explains the discipline of brand stewardship and decisiveness under uncertainty. Jobs' intolerance for diluted brand signals, whether in product UX or retail merchandising, was less a quirk and more an intentional design principle. She recounts how even small misalignments, such as offering engraving suggestions on iPods, were swiftly reversed to preserve narrative clarity. The discussion also explores her recent book, Creative Velocity, and its guiding premise: creativity is not a fixed trait but a repeatable discipline. Through structured techniques like the generic parts technique and SCAMPER, she argues that anyone, including those outside “creative” job titles, can develop idea fluency and confidence. She emphasizes the role of generative AI as a tool for exploratory dialogue rather than one-shot answers, calling for greater patience and iterative engagement to unlock its full potential. For senior leaders, this episode surfaces a precise question: Are you designing your organization to perform or to invent? And are you personally equipped to model the latter? Get Leslie's book here: https://rb.gy/d5zr69 Creative Velocity: Propelling Breakthrough Ideas in the Age of Generative AI Here are some free gifts for you: Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo
Every gym bro's on 'test' now — but is TRT actually helping or just creating jacked zombies? Nick Pell investigates on this Skeptical Sunday!Welcome to Skeptical Sunday, a special edition of The Jordan Harbinger Show where Jordan and a guest break down a topic that you may have never thought about, open things up, and debunk common misconceptions. This time around, we're joined by writer and researcher Nick Pell!Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/1172On This Week's Skeptical Sunday:TRT can address real medical issues. Testosterone replacement therapy can genuinely help men experiencing symptoms like chronic insomnia, severe depression, and extremely low energy levels. For some men, it can be life-changing treatment for legitimate medical conditions.Serious health risks are real. TRT carries significant risks including blood thickening (stroke risk), cardiovascular strain, permanent fertility loss, and dependency. These aren't minor side effects — they require ongoing medical monitoring and mitigation strategies like regular blood donation.Many clinics operate as cash grabs. The industry is flooded with clinics that will prescribe TRT to almost anyone willing to pay, regardless of actual medical need. These facilities often charge $200+ monthly for treatments that cost $35 elsewhere and use aggressive fear-based marketing.TRT creates physical dependency. Once you start, stopping requires medical supervision similar to coming off antidepressants or other serious medications. Your body stops producing natural testosterone, and post-cycle therapy may not restore normal levels, especially after long-term use.Make informed decisions based on symptoms, not just numbers. Before considering TRT, honestly assess how you actually feel — your energy, mood, and quality of life matter more than blood test numbers alone. If you feel fine but have "low" test numbers, you may not need treatment. Conversely, if you feel terrible but have "normal" numbers, discuss options with a knowledgeable doctor who takes your symptoms seriously.Connect with Jordan on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. If you have something you'd like us to tackle here on Skeptical Sunday, drop Jordan a line at jordan@jordanharbinger.com and let him know!And if you're still game to support us, please leave a review here — even one sentence helps! Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course!Subscribe to our once-a-week Wee Bit Wiser newsletter today and start filling your Wednesdays with wisdom!Do you even Reddit, bro? Join us at r/JordanHarbinger!This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors:SimpliSafe: 50% off + 1st month free: simplisafe.com/jordanShopify: 3 months @ $1/month (select plans): shopify.com/jordanLand Rover Defender: landroverusa.comProgressive: Free online quote: progressive.comHomes.com: Find your home: homes.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
What might just be the biggest asset class of our time is ridiculously on sale at the moment, and the overall risk of investing in this particular asset class just went way down this week. You should know what it is, but even if you don't, join us here in Episode 209. Recommended Crypto Trading Platform (And Bonus Eligibility) - https://nononsenseforex.com/cryptocurrencies/best-crypto-trading-platform/ For Decentralized Crypto Trading (US Citizens Can Join) - https://nononsenseforex.com/decentralized-trading-platform/ Blueberry Markets Blog (Top FX Broker) - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/ Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/ The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice. Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone. The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates. Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time. Thank you for understanding.
Physician Scott Abramson discusses his article "How doctors' words can make or break patient care." Scott shares two compelling scenarios illustrating the profound impact of a physician's communication. He recounts a family conference where a doctor's use of medical jargon like "lesion" completely obscured the diagnosis of cancer for a concerned family, highlighting the barrier that medical language can create. Conversely, Scott details the powerful influence of a surgeon, Dr. Susan Heckman, who, faced with a patient's holistic beliefs and initial refusal of surgery for a suspicious breast lump, used empathetic and culturally resonant language—calling the "blemish" a "guardian angel giving you a wake-up call"—to foster understanding and facilitate timely, life-saving intervention. Scott emphasizes that effective communication, beyond clinical expertise, is crucial for patient understanding, trust, and ultimately, positive health outcomes. Our presenting sponsor is Microsoft Dragon Copilot. Microsoft Dragon Copilot, your AI assistant for clinical workflow, is transforming how clinicians work. Now you can streamline and customize documentation, surface information right at the point of care, and automate tasks with just a click. Part of Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare, Dragon Copilot offers an extensible AI workspace and a single, integrated platform to help unlock new levels of efficiency. Plus, it's backed by a proven track record and decades of clinical expertise—and it's built on a foundation of trust. It's time to ease your administrative burdens and stay focused on what matters most with Dragon Copilot, your AI assistant for clinical workflow. VISIT SPONSOR → https://aka.ms/kevinmd SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST → https://www.kevinmd.com/podcast RECOMMENDED BY KEVINMD → https://www.kevinmd.com/recommended
Big Breakdown - Kohberger Defense Begs For A Delay, While Prosecution Says 'Show Time!' In this critical episode, we analyze the intensifying pre-trial battle between Bryan Kohberger's defense team and Idaho prosecutors as they clash over the trial timeline for the quadruple murder case that shocked the nation. The defense's urgent motion for delay comes as they claim they need additional time to review the massive amount of evidence, while prosecutors assert they're ready to present their case against the former criminology PhD student accused of killing four University of Idaho students. Our legal experts dissect the defense's arguments for postponement, including their concerns about the volume of digital evidence, thousands of pages of discovery materials, and the complexity of forensic evidence including DNA analysis and cell phone data. We examine the strategic reasoning behind their request, discussing how additional preparation time could benefit Kohberger's defense and potentially impact the quality of representation he receives in this death penalty-eligible case. Conversely, we explore the prosecution's push to move forward, analyzing their confidence in the evidence they've assembled and their desire to bring justice to the victims' families without unnecessary delays. Our panel discusses the emotional toll that extended delays take on the families of Kaylee Goncalves, Madison Mogen, Xana Kernodle, and Ethan Chapin, and how the court must balance the defendant's rights with the community's need for closure. The episode features insights from criminal defense attorneys and former prosecutors who explain the tactical advantages each side seeks through their positions on timing. We examine similar high-profile cases and how pre-trial delays affected their outcomes, providing context for what might happen in the Kohberger case. Additionally, we discuss the judge's difficult position in deciding whether to grant the delay, considering factors such as the complexity of the case, the defendant's right to adequate representation, and the public's right to a speedy trial. This comprehensive analysis helps viewers understand the crucial pre-trial maneuvering that could significantly impact the trajectory of this closely-watched case. #BryanKohberger #IdahoMurders #UniversityOfIdaho #MoscowIdaho #TrueCrime #CourtTV #PreTrialMotions #LegalStrategy #JusticeForVictims #IdahoStudentMurders #TrialDelay #BigBreakdown #CriminalJustice #DeathPenaltyCase #CourtroomStrategy Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872
Story at-a-glance Your skin microbiome helps protect against UV radiation damage by metabolizing harmful cis-urocanic acid (cis-UCA) using an enzyme called urocanase, preventing immunosuppression and inflammation after sun exposure Urocanase-positive bacteria rapidly respond to UVB exposure, shifting skin microbiome composition within hours and creating a protective feedback loop that supports overall skin health Conventional sunscreens often disrupt beneficial skin bacteria, while certain microbes produce protective compounds like pigments, antioxidants, and enzymes that naturally neutralize harmful UV radiation Linoleic acid (LA) from vegetable oils accumulates in skin cells, making them vulnerable to UV damage. Conversely, C15:0 fat can eventually replace LA in cell membranes Reducing LA intake and supplementing with 2 grams of C15:0 daily can help boost skin health in 12 to 18 months, enabling greater sun resilience without relying on conventional sunscreens
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