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Welcome back to another episode of Monetization Nation with Dave Knox. In the previous episode, we discussed Dave's entrepreneurial journey and how he turned his passions into a career. In today's episode, we'll discuss three ways to evaluate new business ideas and share a few stories from Dave's book, Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips. The Story Behind Predicting the Turn Dave used to spend his workdays with big companies while he spent his nights and weekends working with startups. While corporations often looked at lean startups admiring their agility and startups looked at big companies admiring their influence and resources, at the end of the day, they were two sides of the same coin. In Predicting the Turn, Dave talks about the high-stakes game of both disruptive startups and innovative big companies with the goal to teach his readers how to foresee the changing shifts in their industry. Dave wants us to realize that no one's going to know with certainty what's going to happen next. But we can start preparing ourselves by mapping out different scenarios of how things can go and comparing the probability of one thing over another. This can help us be prepared and put ourselves in the driver's seat. Avoid Having a Kodak Lost Moment During most of the 20th century, Kodak reigned in the photographic film industry. It was so dominant that its "Kodak moment" tagline entered the common lexicon to describe a personal event that deserved to be recorded for future generations (Source: Wikipedia). However, In 2012 and as a result of bankruptcy filing and restructuring, Kodak was forced to sell off a half-billion-dollar portfolio of patents covering digital photography and online photo applications to technology titans like Apple and Google (Source: WSJ). Dave interprets a “Kodak moment” as being in control of where the industry and our business could go but losing this control because we're not willing to give up what we have right now. This is what Kodak did with the rise of digital photography. In 1975, Steve Sasson invented the self-contained digital camera while working at Kodak. But when he presented it to the leadership team there, they dismissed it. One of the biggest reasons for that was because Kodak made a lot of money off the paper and printing of photographs. They forgot that they were in the business of sharing moments and not just physical photos. That was the essence of a Kodak moment. It was about capturing moments and sharing them. This is what we've all experienced with digital cameras. There are more photos taken today than there ever were when we were using physical photos. If Kodak had realized that, they would have been in a vastly different position than where they are today. They had that moment, but they just missed it in terms of where they could go and what would come out of it. Look at New Opportunities Separately The shift toward e-commerce is fueled in part by people's need to save time. The overall convenience of e-commerce is probably why the number of global digital buyers is estimated to reach 2.14 billion in 2021 (Source: Oberlo.com). However, Dave believes that e-commerce is the best buying tool that has ever been created only if you know exactly what you're looking for. Then it's just a matter of finding where it's sold, whether it's on Amazon, eBay, or some other place. Dave believes that where e-commerce has fallen flat is in being a shopping tool. Shopping is an inherent human behavior. We love to explore, see and learn. That's why some people can get lost in a mall or grocery store for multiple hours. It's to fill this need for discovery, by walking the aisles in the store and finding that thing we didn't expect to find. What NatureBox and other subscription-based e-commerce brands did was that they made it easy for people to buy while fulfilling their need to explore. Buyers would receive their box at home and it would be filled with things they didn't even know they wanted but were curated and brought home to them. This is the same thing BarkBox did for pets and Birchbox did with beauty products. Dave believes that this is what the big companies got wrong. When they looked at a new business opportunity, they would ask whether or not it was a good business idea. They were thinking of it purely as a retail play. They would look at BarkBox and ask if BarkBox can beat PetSmart or look at Birchbox and wonder if it can beat Sephora. Dave thinks this was shortsighted because they didn't realize it was actually part of their brand-building. It would create much more opportunity for them if they had embraced it instead of analyzing whether it was good or bad business. It was the model of subscription boxes that created room for companies like DoorDash. So often when big businesses look at a new emerging opportunity, it's too small that it can't compete with their existing revenue streams. What they should do instead is step back and not compare. They should look at it as a separate business unit that doesn't even have to compete with existing units. It's “how do we seize this new opportunity?” Because if they don't, the emerging business is going to seize them and leapfrog them in many ways. Understand That People Come First Dave has lost a lot of money in many of the businesses he invested in. When he thinks about it, he finds one thing in common with all of these ventures. Almost every time it was that he was betting on the idea instead of betting on the person. It was looking at that idea and seeing the potential. And in those cases, Dave overlooked the question of, “Was this the right entrepreneur to be able to do that?” On the flip side, the businesses where Dave has been most successful were because of the tenacity of the entrepreneur. He could see that this person had something special. And oftentimes the thing they ended up building wasn't necessarily the thing he invested in. But the person didn't change and they were the ones driving and making it work. At the end of the day, business, even when it's about dollars and cents, it's ultimately a people's game. We're betting on the people, whether they're the people we hire, the vendors we work with, the partners we have, or the entrepreneurs we invest in. Leveraging Existing Technologies Dave believes the biggest business tectonic shift today is the rise of entrepreneurship. Historically, entrepreneurship has always had barriers such as the cost of starting a business. What's amazing today is the tools that have emerged that allow us to start a business in a space that we never could have done before. Today, we can create a Shopify, Etsy, or eBay store in a matter of hours. Only 10 years ago, to create an e-commerce site that could allow a third party to buy from us, get something shipped, and accept payment, it would take tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars and much more time. Now we have all these tools attainable for many people that make it easier to start as entrepreneurs. That's why, over the last decade, a lot of new consumer brands have emerged because the barrier to entry is getting lower. Things like the ability to work with a contract manager, manufacturer to make a product, and the way to do fulfillment using third-party logistics have gotten much easier and less expensive than what they used to be. The advice I would give for a new entrepreneur who can't leverage the existing technologies and has some developer telling them they have to build from scratch, is they need to get a second opinion. If we have to build our business from scratch, we might reconsider our business model and find something where we can leverage existing technologies. Key Takeaways Thank you so much Dave for sharing your stories and knowledge with us today. Here are some of my key takeaways from this episode: In business, we'll never know with certainty what's going to happen next. But we can start preparing ourselves and map out different ways and scenarios of how things can go. Big companies should look at emerging business opportunities as separate business units that don't have to compete with existing businesses. Instead of building from scratch, always try to leverage existing technologies to build our business. It generally saves time and money. When we're looking to invest in a new business, it's important to not just focus on the idea, but also on the people who are going to execute that idea. Connect with Dave If you enjoyed this interview and want to learn more about Dave or connect with him, you can find him on LinkedIn or visit his website at PredictingTheTurn.com or his company's website at NaturesWillowBalm.com. You can also find his book on Amazon. Want to be a Better Digital Monetizer? Did you like today's episode? Then please follow these channels to receive free digital monetization content: Get a free Monetization Assessment of your business Subscribe to the free Monetization eMagazine. Subscribe to the Monetization Nation YouTube channel. Subscribe to the Monetization Nation podcast on Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or Stitcher. Follow Monetization Nation on Instagram and Twitter. Share Your Story What's the biggest turn or tectonic shift you've seen in your career? Please join our private Monetization Nation Facebook group and share your insights with other digital monetizers. Read at: https://monetizationnation.com/blog/119-how-to-predict-the-turn-so-we-can-leverage-tectonic-shifts/
In this week’s episode of “Marketing Today,” Alan talks with Dave Knox, marketer, consultant, and author. His book, “Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips,” was an Atticus Awards Grand Prix winner in 2017. Knox has worked for Proctor & Gamble and was chief marketing officer at Rockfish. Now, he is co-founder of The Brandery, a startup accelerator, and co-founder and managing partner at Vine St. Ventures, a seed venture capital fund. During his conversation with Alan, Knox pointed out one reason why a lot of big companies struggle with innovation: “A CEO used to be rewarded for the five-year vision of how they were going to grow the company,” says Knox. “And today they’re being measured whether they hit a quarterly number or not. And that’s a really dangerous kind of short-term thinking that I think is stifling innovation in a lot of different ways.” Highlights from this week’s “Marketing Today” podcast include: Knox talks about his background and why he wrote “Predicting the Turn.” (1:16) Innovation: A big business problem or widespread disruption opportunity? Short answer: It’s both. (4:47) A focus on quarterly earnings hampers the ability of big companies to innovate. (7:17) “Just because you’re big doesn’t mean you can’t move fast.” (9:32) Two watch-outs in prospective partnerships between big companies and startups. (11:53) In the world of venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and startups, relationships are key. (19:38) Advice from a record company executive led to the way Knox’s career unfolded. (23:08) Fatherhood grounded Knox with a sense of balance. (25:26) Knox: “The future of marketing is going to be much more about total customer experience.” (29:03) Support the show.
In this episode we talk to Dave Knox, Brand Builder, Digital Transformation Consultant, Public Speaker & Author of Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips. Dave shares from years of marketing experience across both corporate brand strategy & high-growth startups. Check out the blog post on second-order consequences Dave mentions here: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences Click here to connect with this guest on LinkedIn.
SOCAP CEO Marjorie Bynum chats with Dave Knox, author of Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between StartUps and Blue Chips. Dave is also a keynote speaker at SOCAP’s Re-Imagine Conference in October. Learn more about the key insights in Dave’s book that also speak to important role of customer care.
Brand marketer and venture capitalist Dave Knox is an expert in relationships between large companies and startups, as he has extensive experience working in both worlds. Knox began his career at Procter & Gamble, where he consistently pushed the envelope in terms of marketing and digital innovation, eventually spearheading the company’s development of digital business strategies. He left the company in 2010 to co-found The Brandery, a startup accelerator in Cincinnati, OH, leveraging his seven years of corporate experience to advise local founders on their entrepreneurial journeys. In addition to his work with The Brandery, Knox also serves as Managing Director of WPP Ventures and CMO of Rockfish Digital. Knox has an astute understanding of the ways startups and corporations affect each other. In our interview, he explains why startups must strategically compete and cooperate with large companies to improve their capacity for innovation and disruption—which can ultimately lead to acquisition and profitable exits. If this episode leaves you eager for more of Knox’s keen insights into corporate-startup interactions, you’ll want to pick up his new book, Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips. Purchase the book through the publisher’s website and enter the coupon code “powderkeg” for an exclusive $10 discount on your order. As bonus, I’ll also be giving away a free copy of the book to one lucky listener who comments on this episode! In this episode with Dave Knox, you’ll learn: -- The key to building your network outside of a major tech hub -- How to avoid falling prey to large companies that can “disrupt the disruptor” -- Corporate venture capital is the new R&D -- The difference between outsiders and disruptors -- The ongoing transition toward fully digital business models -- Why startups need to engage with large companies from the beginning -- Reasons you might want to work with corporate VC organizations ---- Download show notes and transcripts at www.powderkeg.com This episode of Powder Keg is brought to you by DeveloperTown. If you’re a business leader trying to turn a great idea into a product with traction, this is for you. DeveloperTown works with clients ranging from entrepreneurs to Fortune 100 companies who want to build and launch an app or digital product. They’re able to take the process they use with early stage companies to help big companies move like a startup. So if you have an idea for a web or mobile app, or need help identifying the great ideas within your company, go to developertown.com/powderkeg. Thanks again to everyone who has shared an episode of Powderkeg, subscribed to us on iTunes, or left us a review. It’s the only way we’re going to spread this message and reach new people and we could do it without you. We’re coming out with new episodes every Tuesday, so make sure you subscribe on iTunes or at powderkeg.co/itunes