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1. In Londinium, 92 AD, Gaius and Germanicus discuss a 21st-century Middle East conflict involving 3,200 trapped ships and massive supply chain disruptions. Germanicus critiques the military cliché "the enemy gets a vote," arguing it reflects a superiority complex and a failure to perform accurate net assessments of Iraniancapabilities and American limitations. He notes critical shortages, including a lack of minesweepers and ships for escort duties, making a proposed assault on Kharg Island highly precarious. Historically, they observe that no Western power has successfully invaded Persia in 2,000 years. The current strategy of "target servicing" has failed to subdue the regime, leading to a potential global famine due to severe fertilizer shortages. Ultimately, the speakers see no clear way out as the global economybegins to crack under the pressure of the ongoing war. (1)1900 CRUSADERS
Is the global financial system quietly rewiring around XRP? In this episode of On The Chain, Jeff and Chip break down the latest developments surrounding XRP, Ripple, and the Flare Network — and why the infrastructure around digital assets may be expanding faster than most people realize. Ripple continues to grow its global footprint across crypto infrastructure and global payments, with Ripple Payments now processing over $100B+ across 60+ markets. At the same time, Ripple is expanding its financial stack in places like Brazil, launching custody solutions, supporting RLUSD adoption, and partnering with major crypto exchanges and financial institutions. Meanwhile, institutional access to digital assets like XRP is evolving as regulated investment vehicles such as crypto ETFs begin opening the door for large capital flows into the crypto ecosystem. As these financial products mature, more institutions may gain exposure to the infrastructure powering blockchain finance. We also examine why Flare Network may become a critical piece of the ecosystem by adding programmability and smart contract capabilities around XRP and the XRP Ledger, potentially expanding the utility of XRP within decentralized finance and tokenized financial markets. But this episode isn't just about crypto. At the same time these developments are unfolding, the geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly unstable — from shifting alliances across Europe to tensions around global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, periods of geopolitical pressure often coincide with changes to the underlying financial system and global settlement infrastructure. That raises an important question: Is XRP becoming part of the next generation of global financial infrastructure? On The Chain explores the intersection of: • XRP • Ripple • Flare Network • crypto infrastructure • global payments • digital assets • geopolitics • macro finance If you're interested in XRP news, Ripple updates, Flare Network developments, crypto regulation, digital asset adoption, and the future of the financial system, make sure to subscribe to On The Chain. New episodes explore how crypto, macro finance, and geopolitics are shaping the next financial era. XRP | Ripple | Flare Network | crypto infrastructure | digital assets | global payments | blockchain finance SUPPORT ON THE CHAIN GRAB A BADASS YETIS COFFEE – Fuel your crypto grind! ☕ Visit: badasserycoffee.com MINT YOUR BADASS YETIS NFT – Own a piece of the legend! Visit: otc.one/mint OTC MERCH IS HERE! – Represent the community in style! Visit: onthechain.shop BUY US A COFFEE – Help keep the content flowing! Visit: otc.one/buy-us-a-coffee JOIN THE CHANNEL – Get exclusive perks & behind-the-scenes content! Visit: otc.one/join ON THE CHAIN – CONNECT WITH US! Listen to the OTC Podcast – Never miss an update! Visit: otc.one/podcast Visit Our Website – The home of crypto insights! Visit: onthechain.io Follow OTC on X – Stay updated in real time! Visit: otc.one/x ⚠️ DISCLAIMER This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed on this channel constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions. #XRP #Ripple #FlareNetwork #CryptoNews #DigitalAssets #Blockchain #FutureOfFinance #CryptoInfrastructure
One of the most striking developments during the Iran war has been the reappearance of something that used to define American media a century ago: yellow journalism. Historically, the term referred to sensationalized reporting that prioritized outrage and emotion over accuracy, often using thin sourcing and dramatic narratives to mobilize public opinion. The Spanish–American War, famously fueled by headlines like “Remember the Maine,” is the classic example.Today the structure is different, but the incentives are remarkably similar. Instead of a handful of powerful newspaper publishers driving the narrative, the modern system is decentralized. Social media users, influencers, and coordinated networks can amplify stories through algorithms until traditional outlets feel compelled to cover them simply because they are trending.All of this results in feedback loop. A rumor or distorted piece of information circulates online, gets boosted within a particular political community, and eventually becomes a topic of mainstream reporting. At that point the original claim, even if false, has successfully entered the public conversation.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The Five Tribes of the Iran WarThis dynamic is especially powerful because the online political ecosystem is already divided into ideological “tribes” that interpret events through their own narratives.On the left, there is what might be called the new resistance, Democrats who see every development in the war primarily through the lens of whether it helps or hurts Donald Trump politically. Alongside them sits the progressive anti-war faction, deeply skeptical of Israel and convinced the conflict validates their warnings about American interventionism.On the right, the divide is just as sharp. One faction could be described as the Gnostic MAGA movement, a group of populist conservatives who believe Trump has betrayed the movement's core promises by engaging in foreign conflict. In contrast, another faction believes Trump is right about everything, arguing that the war's early results show his strategy is working and that critics are panicking too early.Then there is a final group: the “maybe this time Trump” neoconservatives, longtime critics of the former president who nevertheless support aggressive action against Iran and therefore find themselves, temporarily, aligned with his policy.These communities overlap in complicated ways, but each one is primed to amplify certain narratives that confirm its worldview.How a Rumor Becomes “News”The mechanics of modern yellow journalism often begin with a small piece of truth that can be exaggerated or distorted. Once it is framed in a way that triggers emotional reactions inside one or more of these ideological tribes, the story spreads rapidly through reposts, commentary, and algorithmic amplification.Eventually, the rumor becomes so widely discussed that major media outlets cover it, sometimes simply to debunk it. But by that point the narrative has already achieved its goal: it has entered mainstream awareness and eroded trust in competing sources of information.In wartime, this dynamic becomes even more powerful. Governments themselves may benefit from confusion, exaggeration, or competing narratives. The battlefield isn't just physical territory, but also public perception.The deeper challenge is that the modern information ecosystem has no central referee. In the past, editors at major newspapers could decide what was credible enough to print. Today, social media algorithms and online communities perform that role collectively, often rewarding the most emotionally compelling stories rather than the most accurate ones.That means the burden increasingly falls on individuals to filter information themselves. If a story makes people furious or ecstatic instantly, that reaction is often a sign to pause before sharing it.A New Information EraThe Iran war may eventually be remembered not only for its military consequences but also for what it revealed about the way modern media operates. The sensationalism that once drove early twentieth-century newspaper empires has reappeared in a decentralized, digital form.Yellow journalism never disappeared — it's just changed and evolved to keep up with modern times. And in the middle of a war, its power to shape public perception may be greater than ever.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:14 - Susie Wiles00:03:38 - DHS Shutdown00:04:33 - Yellow Journalism in the Iran War Era00:29:10 - Iranian Security Chief Killed00:33:15 - Joe Kent00:39:29 - Texas AI Ad00:41:32 - Reese Gorman on Texas and Oklahoma01:12:27 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
How do we create stories powerful enough, moving enough, inspiring enough - and grounded enough - to shift the trajectory of our culture onto a totally new pathway? This week's guest, Matt Golding, has spent his entire professional life exploring what makes stories go viral, gaining awards, big contracts and a deep instinct for how to help people see the best in themselves in ways that can shape new narratives. Since the early days of the internet, Matt has been breaking rules and breaking new ground. He's a strategist, writer & filmmaker using story to excite people about the possible future that's emerging all around us - that works better for the majority. He believes the stories we share shape the culture we inhabit, and with a background in viral campaigns, he's fascinated with how we can use creativity, heart and humour to shape stories people share - that unlock a more positive future. As director of impact and social change studio, Rubber Republic, he was as the forefront of a movement that used shareable content campaigns to engage mass audiences with a better future. Historically, he worked with brands like Disney, eBay, Channel 4, BBC, Fiat and Yorkshire Tea, but since 2019 he has committed only to work with organisations 100% committed to creating a future that functions for all.He's the founder of ANTIDOTE - a positive storytelling platform sharing stories of collective action by ordinary people that are changing our world for the better. Matt says that it's 'an experiment in reshaping how we find and tell collective action stories to see if we can get them more mainstream traction and appeal, and make them more invitational so we can get more people to be inspired into action.' Which is as Thrutopian as it gets. And, on top of all this, he's co-host of the recently launched - and absolutely brilliant - podcast 'Screw This, Let's Try Something Else...' sharing stories of ordinary communities creating extraordinary change. And then finally, on top of all of this, there's a postcode search tool, so you can get involved in transformative things wherever you are (in the UK - though at some point, someone will stretch it worldwide) In a crazy-making world, join us for a dose of inspiring sanity, creativity and hope. LinksAntidote https://www.antidotelive.studio/Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/screw-this-lets-try-something-else/id1863391095Postcode Search Tool (find collective action near you): https://www.antidotelive.studio/near-youLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattgolding/Substack: https://mattgolding.substack.com/Rubber Republic https://www.rubberrepublic.com/—About Accidental Gods—We offer three strands all rooted in the same soil, drawing from the same river: Accidental Gods, Dreaming Awake and the Thrutopia Writing Masterclass Our next Open Gathering offered as part of our Accidental Gods Programme is 'FINDING YOUR SOUL'S PURPOSE' which will run on Sunday 22nd March 2026 from 16:00 - 20:00 GMT - details are here. You don't have to be a member of Accidental Gods - but if you are, all Gatherings are half price.If you'd like to join us at Accidental Gods, this is the membership where we endeavour to help you to connect fully with the living web of life. If you'd like to train more deeply in the contemporary shamanic work at Dreaming Awake, you'll find us here. If you'd like to explore the recordings from our last Thrutopia Writing Masterclass, the details are hereManda and Louise both offer one-to-one Mentoring Calls. Manda is fully booked just now, but if you'd like to contact Louise, details are here.
Legislative season is underway, and we're seeing a wave of proposals that could significantly reshape the operating environment for nonprofits and advocacy organizations. We're tracking over 1,000 bills across the country, and while some of them do positive things, like make improvements to our electoral system or increase voter turnout, unfortunately, most of these measures are taking aim at impactful nonprofit advocacy. These proposals collectively reflect an erosion of the civic space in the nonprofit ecosystem. We're here to break down some of the key trends and help you stay informed about emerging twists in compliance. Attorneys for this episode Maggie Ellinger-Locke Susan Finkle Sourlis Natalie Roetzel Ossenfort Shownotes Federal Legislation · The SAVE Act would require voter registration applicants to provide documentary proof of US citizenship and impose strict photo ID rules to vote in federal elections. · Federal law is already clear that only US citizens are permitted to vote in federal elections. · This legislation could disproportionately impact voters of color, married people who have changed their last names, and low-income voters. State Legislation · So far, we've seen over 150 bills filed in at least half the states, that seek to impact the voting process. Georgia's SB 586 proposes sweeping changes to state elections including early voting. Under current law voters are permitted to cast their ballot at any polling location in their county during the early voting period. But if this bill becomes law, voters would be restricted to just one polling location. In West Virginia, SB 90 would prohibit voters not affiliated with a major political party from voting in a primary election. In Kansas, HB 2438 would prohibit online voter registration unless a website uses a .gov domain or is explicitly approved by the secretary of state. Corporate Power Reset movement: The goal of this movement is to create an end run around supreme court precedent like Citizens United and Buckley v Valeo[NO1] [ME2] [SS3] by prohibiting all corporate, whether for profit or nonprofit, engagement with elections.[SS4] [ME5] · Restricting foreign influence on ballot measure campaigns: Federal law already bans foreign national contributions to candidate campaigns, but these bills are seeking to extend the restrictions further, narrowing the funding landscape for direct democracy. o During the 2026 state legislative sessions, we've seen 39 bills introduced in twenty states that would restrict foreign contributions to ballot measure campaigns. o Some focus narrowly on majority foreign-owned businesses, but many target individuals and ballot question committees. These bills often require affirmative certifications that no foreign national funding is involved in an organization's ballot measure advocacy. Baby FARA bills: At the federal level, the Foreign Agents Registration Act was enacted in 1938 to counter Nazi propaganda. It requires individuals or entities acting "at the order, request, or under the direction or control" of a foreign principal to register with the Department of Justice and file detailed disclosures. Historically, FARA has been applied in relatively specific circumstances, primarily lobbying or political work directly tied to foreign governments. State-level analogues, however, are often drafted much more broadly. These proposals could sweep in a wide range of advocacy activities and impact organizations engaged in international solidarity movements. Terrorism: US law only allows foreign groups to be labeled as foreign terrorist organizations. And new policy directs federal law enforcement agencies to "investigate and disrupt networks, entities, and organizations" that have views in contravention to the president's. This type of legislation is now making its way to the states. In Florida, lawmakers are pushing several bills, such as HB 1471, SB 1632, and SB 1634, would dramatically expand the state's power to designate organizations as "domestic terrorist organizations." o The bills broaden the definition of domestic terrorism, using sweeping language about activities intended to "influence the policy of a government" or "affect the conduct of government," terms that could be interpreted expansively. o Once designated, an organization could have its funds frozen, be barred from receiving state contracts or funding, and expose its staff, donors, and supporters to criminal liability for providing "material support." Hopeful Legislation: · In Georgia, lawmakers are considering a bill that would expand student protest rights, excusing absences for classes missed due to protest attendance. · In Missouri, HB 1871 extends the "no excuse" absentee voting period from two weeks to four. Resources Public Charities Can Lobby (Factsheet) Being a Player: A Guide to IRS Lobbying Regulations for Advocacy Charities Practical Guidance: What Nonprofits Need to Know about Lobbying in Your State
This week we are discussing the rise of a new type of health care where the patients play a vital role in their medical care. Patients as partners in care are at the heart of shared decision making (SDM), a model where clinicians and patients deliberately work together to choose tests and treatments that fit both best evidence and the patient's values and life context. What shared decision making means SDM is a collaborative process in which clinicians contribute clinical expertise while patients contribute their goals, preferences, and lived experience. Core elements include at least two participants (patient and clinician), information sharing in both directions, building a shared understanding of options, and aiming for agreement on what to do next. From paternalism to partnership Historically, medical care was strongly paternalistic, with clinicians deciding and patients expected to comply, but from the 1970s onward, growing emphasis on autonomy and patient‑centered care began to challenge this model. The term "shared decision-making" appeared in ethical discussions in the 1970s and early 1980s and gained momentum in the 1980s alongside evidence that patients increasingly wanted to participate in decisions. Why patients as partners matters SDM is associated with improved patient knowledge, more accurate risk perception, reduced decisional conflict, and treatment plans that better reflect what matters most to patients. Studies link SDM to higher satisfaction, better adherence, improved quality of life, lower anxiety, and in some preference‑sensitive conditions, less invasive and sometimes less costly care.
Jascha Kaykas-Wolff is the CEO of Visiting Media and a longtime tech leader who has helped shape digital marketing at companies like Yahoo, Microsoft, BitTorrent, and Mozilla. Raised in a socialist collective outside Eugene, Oregon, by a pioneering rock concert promoter, he grew up thinking deeply about systems, autonomy, and how teams work together. Susan and Jascha talk about AI acceleration, authentic leadership, and agile innovation. What You'll Learn • Breaking into hospitality tech by showing up, meeting operators, and building real relationships • How growing up in a collective shaped a leadership philosophy of autonomy and accountability • The difference between meritocracy and psychological safety in organizations • How data and conviction helped pitch Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer • The surprising leadership lesson hidden in a mustard stain • Why curiosity—not credentials—is the most valuable career skill today • Practical ways hospitality professionals can start experimenting with AI immediately • Using AI to research guests, build microsites, and automate everyday work • How Visiting Media uses real-world capture plus AI to power hospitality sales • The importance of "trust but verify" in an AI-generated world • Why the next five years may bring a renaissance of independent hospitality businesses *** Our Top Three Takeaways 1. Great leaders create environments where ideas feel safe to share Jascha argues that true meritocracy rarely exists in organizations, but leaders can still create conditions that allow good ideas to surface. The key is psychological safety: team members must feel comfortable proposing ideas, even imperfect ones, without fear of ridicule or punishment. When people feel safe to contribute, ideas improve through collaboration, and organizations ultimately make better decisions. 2. AI is today's version of the early internet—curiosity is the most important skill Jascha draws a strong parallel between the current AI moment and the late-1990s internet boom. Just as many experts dismissed the internet back then, many companies today restrict or underestimate AI. His advice is simple: start experimenting now, whether you're a front desk agent researching VIP guests or a marketer building quick microsites, because the professionals who develop AI fluency early will have a major advantage in the next five to ten years. 3. AI may level the playing field between independent hotels and large brands One of Jascha's predictions for hospitality is that AI will enable a renaissance of independent operators. Historically, large brands and management companies had an advantage because they controlled marketing resources and technology. AI tools are lowering those barriers, enabling smaller properties to build software, marketing assets, and digital experiences quickly and cheaply. Jascha Kaykas-Wolff on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaykas/ Visiting Media https://visitingmedia.com/ Cayuga Hospitality Consultants https://cayugahospitality.com/
Each year, finalists in the Franz Edelman Award Competition demonstrate how advanced analytics and operations research are solving real problems at massive scale – from the products we buy and the packages we receive to the healthcare we rely on and the policies that shape our communities. Joining me today are members of the team from ECCO, the globally recognized footwear brand known for its vertically integrated supply chain and retail operations. Managing inventory across hundreds of retail locations around the world is a massive logistical challenge. Historically, store replenishment decisions were made manually, which often led to inconsistent ordering, operational inefficiencies, and missed opportunities to optimize inventory placement. To address this, ECCO's data & AI team developed a powerful analytics system that uses large-scale stochastic mixed-integer programming to automate store replenishment decisions across their global retail network.
Sign up for the news letter, support the show and see exclusives at https://SarahWestall.Substack.com Protect your assets with a company you can trust - Get the private & better price list - Go to https://SarahWestall.com/MilesFranklin Dr. Robin McCutcheon, Professor of Economics at Marshall University, joins the program to discuss the rapidly shifting global monetary landscape. We examine the ramifications of gold-backed currency systems already implemented by China and Russia and the growing global movement toward commodity-backed monetary systems.We also discuss the widely circulating claim that the United States could move to a gold-backed currency on July 4th, 2026 — a timeline that was publicly discussed on Andy Schectman's podcast with Judy Shelton, former Federal Reserve Chair nominee. If such a shift were to occur, it would represent one of the most significant monetary changes in modern history.The conversation also turns to silver and its dramatically evolving role in the global economy. Historically known primarily as a jewelry metal and secondary monetary asset, silver has become a powerhouse industrial metal. Its critical use in advanced electronics, solar technology, energy systems, and modern manufacturing is fundamentally changing silver's long-standing value proposition.This new reality carries enormous implications for markets and global monetary systems.You can learn more about Dr. McCutcheon — and even attend her complete course lectures — by visiting her website at https://Lync-Sync.comLinks and Offers Mentioned in the show:Buy quality at Quince.com/BusinessGame - get free shipping and 365-day returns! Now available in Canada too!Protect your assets with a company you can trust - Get the private & better price list - Go to https://SarahWestall.com/MilesFranklin MUST Sign up as a VIP to see certain peptides like Retatrutide at https://limitlesslifenootropics.com/vip-club-registration/?uid=116&oid=1&affid=10134 Purchase the most effective weight peptide available, Next Generation GLP-1 Retatrutide - use code Sarah to save 15%: https://www.limitlesslifenootropics.com/product/retatrutide-ha/?ref=vbWRE3J See the Peptide stack for weight loss stack in the Ultimate Peptide Guide for Weight Loss and Muscle Preservation. This guide provides common dosages and guidance on the peptide stack used by Sarah: https://sarahwestall.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-peptide-guide-for-weight MUSIC CREDITS: Down to the Wire – Nonstop Producer Series: Broad Media Internet License Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use. Disclaimer: "As a journalist, I report what significant newsmakers are claiming. I do not have the resources or time to fully investigate all claims. Stories and people interviewed are selected based on relevance, listener requests, and by suggestions of those I highly respect. It is the responsibility of each viewer to evaluate the facts presented and then research each story furtherSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
4. Veronique de Rugy: Explains the mass exodus of affluent individuals from high-tax states due to billionaire tax proposals,. She warns that "one-time" taxes historically become permanent, broadening their base to include the middle class,,. (35 words) (4)1910 PACIFIC PALISADES
Historically, certain investments have proved good hedges against rising oil prices. What will determine their effectiveness? The federal agency currently overseeing prediction markets is looking for guidance on the industry. Who is being asked to comment? Finally, International markets have continued 2026 where they left off last year. What could derail the outperformance of international vs. domestic stocks?
Juan shares his thoughts and opinions on the latest happenings in WWE, and previews AEW's Historically great REVOLUTION PPV.
Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1. Then, Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period. Finally, he answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran 05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school 06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes 07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off 08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported 09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on 10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos of Pete Hegseth 12:00 We have a serious war and a completely unserious leader of the Pentagon 12:45 Republican senators knew Hegseth was unqualified & confirmed him anyway 14:15 It’s important to explain the details of the Republican SAVE Act 15:00 John Cornyn flipped position on the filibuster to try to earn Trump endorsement 15:30 Republicans likely don’t have the votes to kill the filibuster 16:15 Contrasting and comparing Democrats HR1 vs Republicans SAVE Act 18:15 SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship to vote 19:00 Trump wants a total ban on mail in voting and all voting on one day 20:00 If GOP kills filibuster & Dems win senate, Dems won’t restore it 20:45 If passed in a partisan vote, SAVE Act would delegitimize democracy 21:45 If rules change based on who’s in power, the public will lose faith in process 23:30 We’re seeing a collision of two partisan visions over who gets to vote 24:30 SAVE Act makes voter registration a “show your papers” event 25:30 There’s a massive gap between bill passed in house & what Trump wants 26:00 Trump is demanding a bill loaded with culture war items 27:30 If Republicans jam through the SAVE Act, it could juice Democratic turnout 29:00 Voter ID isn’t controversial with the public 29:45 There’s 80% support for proof of citizenship when registering to vote 30:15 Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, Dems think it should be easier 31:30 Trump is taking popular ideas and packaging them in a bill that is toxic 32:30 Stability in a democracy doesn’t come from a 51% majority 33:45 34k people in Arizona were barred from state elections, but had federal carve out 35:00 Almost no voter fraud has actually been found 36:00 If you change name or get married, SAVE Act treats you as first time voter 37:30 America already makes life harder on women, SAVE Act makes it worse 38:15 The SAVE Act goes WELL beyond voter ID 39:00 Republicans are writing a bill to make Trump’s bullshit real 39:45 Trump will blame failure to pass SAVE Act for election losses in midterms 41:00 SAVE Act would disenfranchise or add barriers for millions of voters 42:00 Individual citizens have no constitutional right to vote 42:45 State constitutions provide voting guarantees, SAVE Act contradicts that 44:15 Changes to voting rules need bipartisan public consensus 50:15 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast 51:30 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran 52:15 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory 54:00 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory 54:45 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum 55:45 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional 56:30 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country 58:15 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself 59:30 China doesn’t do favors without a cost 1:00:15 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia 1:00:45 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran 1:01:45 Special military operations often become quagmires 1:03:00 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran 1:05:15 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go 1:06:00 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now 1:07:45 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years 1:08:45 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran? 1:09:45 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine 1:10:45 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan 1:12:45 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change 1:13:00 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim? 1:14:30 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump 1:15:30 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries 1:16:00 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan 1:16:45 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning 1:18:00 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated 1:19:15 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue 1:21:30 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms 1:22:15 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force 1:23:00 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency 1:24:30 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders 1:25:15 Trump assumes everyone else is as transactional as he is 1:26:15 Khamenei is a religious leader, his killing has religious implications 1:29:15 Asymmetrical war feels unwinnable 1:31:30 The damage to America’s reputation in the world will last decades 1:32:30 NORAD doesn’t work without Canada & Nordic countries 1:35:00 How can a future president try to fix the damage with allies? 1:36:00 Individual states are setting up representation with foreign countries 1:38:00 If you’re Xi, do you prioritize seizing Taiwan while Trump’s in office? 1:39:45 We’re likely in a post-American empire period 1:40:30 Is there any heir apparent to Putin? 1:42:45 Next leader of Russia will likely keep the same system in place 1:44:15 Unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny 1:48:30 Across the country there’s serious frustration with federal politics 1:50:00 Ask Chuck 1:50:15 How is the psyche of the American people able to handle constant crisis? 1:55:30 Are the war and Epstein files just distracting from importance of midterms? 1:59:00 Have larger sums of money started to become irrelevant in elections? 2:03:00 At what point does fundraising advantage stop matter? 2:07:15 Chances of false flag blamed on Iran to provide pretext to mess with elections? 2:13:00 Thanks for giving me hope while feeling like we’re living through fall of Rome 2:16:30 How can a future president reverse course on tariffs? 2:19:00 Thoughts on March MadnessSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran 02:00 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory 03:45 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory 04:30 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum 05:30 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional 06:15 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country 08:00 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself 09:15 China doesn’t do favors without a cost 10:00 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia 10:30 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran 11:30 Special military operations often become quagmires 12:45 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran 15:00 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go 15:45 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now 17:30 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years 18:30 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran? 19:30 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine 20:30 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan 22:30 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change 22:45 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim? 24:15 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump 25:15 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries 25:45 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan 26:30 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning 27:45 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated 29:00 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue 31:15 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms 32:00 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force 32:45 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency 34:15 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders 35:00 Trump assumes everyone else is as transactional as he is 36:00 Khamenei is a religious leader, his killing has religious implications 39:00 Asymmetrical war feels unwinnable 41:15 The damage to America’s reputation in the world will last decades 42:15 NORAD doesn’t work without Canada & Nordic countries 44:45 How can a future president try to fix the damage with allies? 45:45 Individual states are setting up representation with foreign countries 47:45 If you’re Xi, do you prioritize seizing Taiwan while Trump’s in office? 49:30 We’re likely in a post-American empire period 50:15 Is there any heir apparent to Putin? 52:30 Next leader of Russia will likely keep the same system in place 54:00 Unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyrannySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bull markets don't last forever. When you're in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don't, and at a certain point you have to sell.Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us.I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky.So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly:Where are we in this bull market?Has gold already peaked? It's possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top.Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets.Or is this bull market still in its infancy?I'm going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment.My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my Great Forecast last week. Let's see where I end up. 1. DurationThere have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years.When did this one begin?It depends how you define it.You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base.Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets.You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began.If you start in 2015, this bull market has already lasted ten years. That would put it right in line with the duration of previous cycles, and you could argue it is close to exhaustion.If you start in 2018 or 2019, there may be several years left to run.I favour 2018. Just as gold hit $250 in 1999, rallied, and then returned to roughly the same level in 2001 before the real bull market began, the 2018 low feels like the equivalent retest. Of course this is debatable.And there is always the possibility that this bull market lasts longer than previous ones.Verdict: mid- to late-cycle.2. Relative valuation vs other assetsOilWith gold at $5,200 and WTI crude around $87, it takes roughly 60 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold.Historically this ratio ranges between 6 and 30.The only time oil has been this cheap relative to gold was in the 2020 pandemic collapse, when oil went negative.My view: it's not so much that gold is expensive as that oil is cheap. Plus commodities inevitably get cheaper as we get better at producing them. (As long as you don't measure the price in fiat).Gold vs the S&P 500With the S&P around 6,765, it takes about 1.3 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the index.This ratio has been as high as 5 - at the peak of Dotcom in 2000, and the nadir of gold - and as low as 0.2 (during the depths of the 1930s and at the 1980 gold peak).Gold is therefore on the expensive side relative to equities, but not at historic extremes.This ratio could fall further if equities fall or gold rises.Gold vs US housingThe US housing market varies enormously by region - Beverely Hills is not Detroit, Miami Beach is not McDowell County - so national averages should be treated cautiously. But they still give a rough guide.We are now below the 2011 level and approaching 1980 territory in terms of how many ounces of gold buy a typical home.Pretty extreme.Overall verdict: late-cycle. Warning signal3. Institutional ownershipGold is still under-owned in institutional portfolios.Even after the recent rally, gold represents only a tiny fraction of global portfolio allocation compared with equities and bonds.Gold mining equities are even more neglected.Verdict: mid-cycle4. Central banksCentral bank buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, down from record levels in 2024, but still well above the 2010-2021 average.However, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased only 5 tonnes in January, below the monthly average of 27 tonnes. I would not read too much into that. Much buying is reported with delays, and China in particular reveals little about its activity. The usual assumption is that central bank buying is an early or mid-cycle phenomenon. I am not entirely convinced. If the real driver of this bull market is de-dollarisation and reserve diversification amidst a wider geopolitical shift, then official buying could persist for years.Gold currently represents just under 30% of central bank reserves. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 56%.I don't think this bull market ends until gold sits north of 50% having overtaken the dollar itself.Question: is the war in Iran going to arrest of accelerate de-dollarisation? You know the answer. Verdict: mid-cycle5. Retail participationRetail demand is growing. 2025 saw record bar and coin demand. ETF inflows are rising, but they are not exploding. Mining companies are finally attracting interest again.Silver went briefly manic last month, which is not a healthy sign, but the episode is already unwinding.Verdict: mid-cycleBy the way, due to its senior currency status, the US dollar is going to preserve its purchasing power better than the pound, which is a car crash waiting to happen. I keep getting asked, “is it too late to buy gold?”. If you are in the UK, . We are turning into South Africa and the currency will go the same way. The 40% loss of purchasing power that the pound has seen since 2020 is not going to reverse. If anything it accelerates. Thus …If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.6. LeverageLeverage is difficult to measure precisely.You can look at: futures positioning on Comex, options activity, speculative flows into junior miners, retail spread betting and more. The short answer is this: gold is a crowded trade, but it is not a mania.If it were a mania, the geopolitical shock in Iran last week would have triggered violent liquidations. Instead gold held up remarkably well.Verdict: mid-cycle7. Mining equitiesMining stocks had an excellent 2025. Word is that PDAC last week (the world's largest mining conference), was the like of which had not been felt since 2011 and the last top. That is a warning sign.This chart shows the ratio of the XAU (large mining companies) to gold since 1988. On a relative basis the miners are still phenomenally under-owned, and we now have a text-book base, formed over 9-years, in place. If this ratio goes back to levels of the early 0 0s , miners will multiply many times over.But these declines began with the emergence of the ETFs and the many alternative ways to own gold without taking on individual company risk. The ratio does not have to go back 00s levels.Maybe. But that base is a thing of beauty.Typically the end of a gold bull market would coincide with massive rallies in junior miners, an exploration IPO boom and a merger-and-acquisition frenzy.We are seeing healthy signs of activity, but nothing like that yet.Verdict: mid-cycleI'm delighted to report that The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life, comes out in the US next month. (The US version is published by Pegasus). Order yours now - via Barnes and Noble or Amazon8. The narrative - gold to $150,000?Gold got some coverage in publications like The Economist and the Financial Times last month, but the story is far from mainstream.Ask most people about de-dollarisation, Triffin's dilemma or central bank reserve diversification and you will get blank looks.However, some familiar late-cycle narratives are beginning to appear.One is that silver is being remonetised.It isn't.Silver may well be an important strategic metal, but its monetary role was as medium of exchange. That role is not coming back because we no longer use physical money. That function has been digitised.Gold, by contrast, retains its role as as store of value - a function that silver never had to anything like the same extent. Silver may have use as a speculative asset. It may well rise in price. It may even overshoot spectacularly. But it is not being remonetised. That will not happen, unless Eastenders turns into Mad Max.Another narrative that sometimes appears near major peaks is the US national debt relative to gold reserves. In 1980, headlines declared the US was “solvent again” because it could have used its gold to fully settled its debt.Today US debt is roughly $39 trillion. To settle that debt using America's 262 million ounces of gold, the gold price would need to be roughly $150,000 per ounce.When arguments like that start circulating, it means the narrative can't go much further and the cycle is close to exhaustion.We are not there yet.Verdict: mid-cycle9. Real yieldsLast but not least: real interest rates.This would be the 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation, or the 10-year TIPS yield.Gold bull markets tend to end when real yields rise sharply.In 1980, Paul Volcker pushed interest rates toward 20% and real yields surged. Gold then entered a twenty-year bear market. At the 2011 peak, real yields rose from deeply negative to positive and gold topped within months. From 2020–2022 real yields went negative again and gold surged, until they rose in 2022 and gold stalled.Today nominal yields are relatively high, but inflation remains elevated, the Fed is under pressure to ease (as are most central banks) and fiscal deficits are enormous.Real yields therefore sit around zero or slightly positive, depending on how they are measured. That is not restrictive enough to kill the gold bull market.The danger signal would be inflation falling sharply while nominal yields stay high, pushing real yields well above +2%. We are some distance from that.Verdict: mid-cycleIf you are interested in following the real yield argument, Charlie Morris is the man. He gets it better than anyone, and I heartily recommend you follow his work via his Atlas Pulse. Get your copy here - it's free.ConclusionIf gold continues rising it will pull silver and mining equities higher with it.The spike in silver last month to around $125 looked very much like a mid-cycle blow-off, and a period of consolidation is now both likely and healthy. Looking across all the indicators, most point toward a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one.What superb content. You really should upgrade.Duration and relative valuation raise some concerns, but these are just one or two of nine indicators. Everything else suggests the bull market has not yet reached its final, most speculative phase.In other words: this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.$8 to $10,000 by the end of the decade is a very real possibility.Thanks very much for being a subscriber to Flying Frisby.Until next time,DominicPS I have discussed gold largely in dollar terms, because the market is quoted in dollars. But if you are in the UK the case for owning gold has less to do with the dollar and far more to do with the pound. Sterling has already lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and that trend is not going to reverse. If anything it will accelerate. It's not just the ineptitude of successive governments, but unelected permablob (in this case the Treasury, the OBR, the Bank of England, the FCA et al) that actually runs the show. The system- if you can call it that - is the problem and it's not going to change. The incentives are to spend more, borrow more and debase the currency slowly over time. You cannot fix that system. But you can protect yourself from it. And that means owning some gold.DisclaimerI am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Small-cap stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
Joe looks at competing theories about the story of Noah’s Ark and other similar flood myths. Transcript: Joe: Welcome back to Shameless Popery. I’m Joe Heschmeyer, and I want to ask three questions today about Noah’s Ark and the Great Flood. Question number one, did it really happen or is it just a retelling of older Babylonian stories? Question number two, if it did really happen, was it a global flood or a local or regional flood? And finally, question three, are we missing the point of the story and asking these questions? Now, if you like videos like this, I encourage you...
How important is exercise intensity in reducing your risk of chronic disease? Amy Hudson and Dr. James Fisher break down the real science behind intensity, longevity, and disease risk using data from over 73,000 adults tracked for eight years. They discuss why higher intensity training may deliver outsized returns for heart health, metabolic function, and overall mortality risk. Tune in for a deeper, research-driven look at intensity and longevity. Dr. Fisher breaks down a research article about vigorous versus moderate or light cardiovascular activity. The conversation sets the stage for a deeper look at whether intensity changes long-term health outcomes. Dr. Fisher covers what the researchers did. They analyzed fitness tracker data from tens of thousands of individuals and followed them for eight years. Then they examined mortality, cardiovascular disease risk, and other comorbidities to see how exercise intensity related to long-term outcomes. Dr. Fisher explains how we equate exercise intensity using METs, where one MET equals the energy you burn sitting quietly. According to the research findings, one minute of vigorous activity may equal anywhere from 53 to 156 minutes of light activity, depending on the outcome measured. Dr. Fisher explains how this challenges older thinking. Historically, one minute of vigorous activity was considered equal to about two minutes of moderate activity. This research suggests the gap may be much wider, strengthening the case for adding higher-intensity work or strength training that builds muscle and raises resting metabolic rate. Amy and Dr. Fisher cover the question marks in the research paper. Participants wore trackers for three to seven days per week over eight years. We have no insight into changes in exercise habits, illness, nutrition, sleep, substance use, or socioeconomic factors during that time. Dr. Fisher explains a key limitation of fitness trackers. If you hike uphill with a heavy backpack, the device mainly detects wrist movement, not load or incline. That means muscular effort and true intensity can be underestimated, especially during resistance-based or loaded activities. Amy shares why working with a personal trainer can change how you think about intensity. She reveals that not all movement is equal, and a skilled coach can help you focus on vigorous training instead of just exercising longer. Amy asks the bigger question: if someone simply wants to lower overall disease risk, where should they focus? Dr. Fisher explains why movement is foundational. The body is built to contract muscles and move, and without that stimulus, very little functions optimally. He pairs that with practical advice: prioritize whole foods, limit processed options, and focus on fruits, vegetables, and protein in their natural form. Learn why sleep can't be ignored. You can train hard and eat well, but chronic poor sleep undermines everything. Research consistently links low-quality or insufficient sleep to obesity, diabetes, and even certain cancers. Dr. Fisher's closing remarks: Exercise, nutrition, and sleep are the core pillars. If you consistently check those three boxes, you dramatically improve your odds of a longer, healthier life. Why personal training supports long-term health, not just fitness. Strength, cardiovascular health, and metabolic improvements all depend on consistency and proper load. A good strength coach ensures your body moves efficiently, reduces injury risk, and makes every workout count toward longevity. Mentioned in This Episode: The Exercise Coach - Get 2 Free Sessions! Submit your questions at StrengthChangesEverything.com This podcast and blog are provided to you for entertainment and informational purposes only. By accessing either, you agree that neither constitute medical advice nor should they be substituted for professional medical advice or care. Use of this podcast or blog to treat any medical condition is strictly prohibited. Consult your physician for any medical condition you may be having. In no event will any podcast or blog hosts, guests, or contributors, Exercise Coach USA, LLC, Gymbot LLC, any subsidiaries or affiliates of same, or any of their respective directors, officers, employees, or agents, be responsible for any injury, loss, or damage to you or others due to any podcast or blog content.
Historically, Howie Roseman has been creative in situations when acquiring compensatory picks. The 94 WIP Morning Show wonders if Howie can work his magic despite losing several players to free agency.
I was able to get a rare interview with a member of the Church of Christ (Temple Lot.) Daniel Malone is an adult Sunday school teacher for the church in Independence, Missouri. He provides a candid look into the history and theology of the organization, often historically referred to as the “Hedrickites.” https://youtu.be/pe4r4P3PkQ0 Don't miss our other conversations on Hedrickites: https://gospeltangents.com/denominations/Hedrickites/ Copyright © 2026 Gospel Tangents All Rights Reserved Scripture and the Book of Commandments The Church of Christ grounds its doctrine strictly in the King James Version of the Bible and the Book of Mormon (specifically utilizing their 1990 Independence Edition, which is based on the 1908 RLDS version.) Any theological belief must completely agree with both of these texts. A major highlight of the interview is Malone’s clarification on the Church of Christ (Temple Lot)’s position regarding the Book of Commandments. While outsiders often mistakenly assume it acts as the church’s canonized version of the Doctrine and Covenants, Malone explains that the church recently voted to officially stop printing it and distance themselves from it. The church has never considered the Book of Commandments to be binding scripture. Historically, it was used primarily as an evidentiary tool to demonstrate how early revelations were manipulated and changed when the Doctrine and Covenants was published. The Church of Christ completely rejects the Doctrine and Covenants, making this historical comparison crucial during late 19th-century ideological splits with the RLDS Church/Community of Christ. Church of Christ (Temple Lot) 1830 Roots Malone outlines the church’s desire to strip away what they view as “inventions” that crept into the early Mormon movement between 1830 and 1844. They believe Joseph Smith took on too much authority and that the church should be led collectively by a quorum of twelve apostles, rather than a single prophet, closely mirroring the New Testament church found in Acts. Following the scattering of church members after Joseph Smith’s death, a small, isolated group of believers in Illinois and Indiana maintained these original foundational beliefs. Under the leadership of Granville Hedrick, they received a revelation to return to Independence, Missouri. In 1867, they became the very first restoration group to bravely resettle in Missouri, doing so while the Mormon Extermination Order was still active. Women's Roles and Local Autonomy Malone also takes time to correct a misconception regarding the role of women in the Church of Christ. While they do not hold ministerial priesthood offices, women are considered essential spiritual pillars of the church. They take active roles in worship services, where they pray, testify, prophesy, teach Sunday school, and lead music. Malone also shares his own relaxed, autonomous approach to teaching his adult Sunday school class, noting that they do not follow a set correlation schedule, but rather study whatever topics excite him or inspire the class. The episode wraps up by teasing the next part of the conversation, which promises to dive into the controversies surrounding the 1930s apostle Otto Fetting, his massive blueprints for a temple, and the mysterious cornerstones unearthed on the temple lot. Don't miss our other conversations on Hedrickites: https://gospeltangents.com/denominations/Hedrickites/ Copyright © 2026 Gospel Tangents All Rights Reserved
Escalating conflict between the US-Israel-Iran is sending shockwaves through global markets—and precious metals are right at the center of the story. Oil disruptions, rising geopolitical risk, and growing financial uncertainty are all reshaping investor demand for gold and silver. Historically, periods of war and instability have driven investors toward hard assets as a hedge against volatility. But the current situation could carry deeper implications for currencies, energy markets, and global debt. Listen in for a deeper breakdown of what's happening and how these developments could impact gold and silver investors.
Why does the Catholic Church have both the Traditional Latin Mass and the modern form of the Mass—and how should you explain the difference without getting pulled into “liturgy wars”? In this episode of Catholic Answers Live, Catholic Answers apologists address this common question before diving into a wide range of topics. They explore whether charging interest is still considered usury, how just war theory applies to rebellions, and how historical cases like the Knights Templar fit with Church law. The episode also explains the role of baptism in justification, offers arguments against naturalism, and gives practical advice for strengthening Catholic marriages. Additional questions include how to understand Peter's denial of Jesus and what it means for salvation. A rich discussion covering liturgy, moral theology, and everyday Catholic life. Questions Covered: 05:32 – I attend the Tridentine Mass Almost exclusively at my ‘local’ FSSP parish. I have a friend seeking the Catholic Church who asked me ‘why do you have two different masses in the Western Rite? Why don’t you just attend the regular English one?’ I often say that I am drawn to the beauty and simplicity of it. How do we respond to this simply without dragging them into the so-called ‘liturgy wars’? How do we respond given the restrictions placed on the older masses? Basically, how do we address this difference to those outside the church? Do I just keep a response about ‘preferences of the faithful’? 11:46 – The Church has been quite vocal against usury over the centuries. Is it still defined as any lending of money at interest? How does this notion square with the idea of a variable money supply? Would things like bank accounts, bonds, cds or stocks still be considered illicit? Has there been any recent guidance from the magisterium? 19:02 – Does just war theory apply to rebellions? Historically, I'm thinking of Irish wars against the British Empire and slave revolts of African-descended peoples in the Americas, including during the U.S. Civil War. What would be the conditions of jus ad bellum in cases like these or any other group dealing with an oppressor? 28:46 – Canon 7 of Chalcedon forbids clergy and monks from war and holding secular office. How then did the Knights Templar, and bishops such as the bishop of Andorra, who also holds title of Co-Prince of Andorra, not violate this? 34:03 – How does baptism fit with “faith alone working through love?” Can someone with “faith alone working through love” be initially justified apart from baptism? 19:44 – What do you think is the most convincing argument/thought exercise against naturalism/empricism (or at least what the average indifferent secular person thinks they believe). 46:29 – What is your best advice for a married Catholic couple to strengthen their bond in marriage? Your stories about you and Renee are always so beautiful (the blue birds especially). Also thanks for being a Catholic cowboy. I grew up Southern Baptist, and seeing a southern Catholic gentleman do apologetics is really cool. 50:51 – Peter denied Jesus 3 times. After the cock crows three times he ran away in shame. What if he falls, hits his head and dies after this? Would his soul be in danger of damnation?
Historically, 2nd round picks by the Jets at QB have been awful. A new segment, Doing the Wrong Thing the Right Way, that features Girl Scouts setting up a cookie stand outside a dispensary! And the Samwell Feel Good Moment of the Week! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
A whole lot of gopher hockey talk at the beginning of the show followed by a great segment with Star Tribune columnist Chip Scoggins
The Greenhouse Gas Protocol has developed the world's most widely used greenhouse gas accounting standards and guidance since launching in 1998 as a joint initiative of the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). In this episode of the All Things Sustainable podcast, we unpack how GHG Protocol is now evolving — including updating its Scope 2 guidance and Scope 3 standard, launching a new 'actions and market instruments' standard, and working with other standard-setters to create harmonization — for example, announcing a partnership with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) in 2025. "Historically, fragmentation in carbon accounting has been a huge problem," says Pankaj Bhatia, GHG Protocol Global Director at WRI and part of GHG Protocol's Secretariat. In the episode, Pankaj explains what's ahead for greenhouse gas accounting and reporting standards and how GHG Protocol is responding to stakeholder feedback from recent public consultations. "Climate change is not a siloed operational issue. It's a systemic issue," Pankaj tells us. "And if the problem is systemic, the accounting system must also be systemic." Explore company carbon disclosure practices in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment Further reading: GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance public consultation: S&P Global Energy Horizons submitted response Contact: Lindsey.hall@spglobal.com Esther.whieldon@spglobal.com Copyright ©2026 by S&P Global DISCLAIMER By accessing this Podcast, I acknowledge that S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation as to the accuracy or sufficiency of the information featured in this Podcast. The information, opinions, and recommendations presented in this Podcast are for general information only and any reliance on the information provided in this Podcast is done at your own risk. Any unauthorized use, facilitation or encouragement of a third party's unauthorized use (including without limitation copy, distribution, transmission or modification, use as part of generative artificial intelligence or for training any artificial intelligence models) of this Podcast or any related information is not permitted without S&P Global's prior consent subject to appropriate licensing and shall be deemed an infringement, violation, breach or contravention of the rights of S&P Global or any applicable third-party (including any copyright, trademark, patent, rights of privacy or publicity or any other proprietary rights). This Podcast should not be considered professional advice. Unless specifically stated otherwise, S&P GLOBAL does not endorse, approve, recommend, or certify any information, product, process, service, or organization presented or mentioned in this Podcast, and information from this Podcast should not be referenced in any way to imply such approval or endorsement. The third party materials or content of any third party site referenced in this Podcast do not necessarily reflect the opinions, standards or policies of S&P GLOBAL. S&P GLOBAL assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the content contained in third party materials or on third party sites referenced in this Podcast or the compliance with applicable laws of such materials and/or links referenced herein. Moreover, S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty that this Podcast, or the server that makes it available, is free of viruses, worms, or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. S&P GLOBAL EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF ANY INDIVIDUAL'S USE OF, REFERENCE TO, RELIANCE ON, OR INABILITY TO USE, THIS PODCAST OR THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS PODCAST.
In today's episode, we're diving into these specific altcoins that have remained strangely quiet during this BTC pump. Historically, when Bitcoin stalls or consolidates at these new highs, the "Great Rotation" begins—and these assets are primed for a massive catch-up play.
We are releasing today on our Consumer Finance Monitor podcast our host Alan Kaplinsky's discussion with Marisa Calderon, President and CEO of Prosperity Now, about two high-profile policy proposals raised or embraced by President Trump as part of a broader populist affordability agenda: 1. A nationwide 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year. 2. The Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA), long championed by Senator Dick Durbin which would require large credit card issuers to enable at least two unaffiliated payment networks (only one of which could be MasterCard or VISA) on their cards. Each proposal is framed as pro-consumer. Each has generated significant pushback from banks, card issuers, and trade associations. However, even consumer advocacy groups have raised serious questions about the wisdom of such initiatives. Prosperity Now is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing economic mobility, with a focus on those facing economic barriers. Each raises fundamental questions about how to balance affordability and access in the consumer credit market. Our discussion focused on a central theme: affordability is a real and pressing concern, but policy design matters enormously. Credit Card APRs: A Real Affordability Pressure As Calderon emphasized, policymakers are not wrong to focus on credit card interest rates. Average credit card APRs now hover around 22%, up sharply from roughly 13% a decade ago. Approximately half of cardholders carry a balance, and many rely on credit cards not for discretionary spending, but as liquidity bridges, covering emergency medical bills, car repairs, groceries, and other essentials. For lower and moderate-income households, credit cards are often the only readily available, regulated source of short-term liquidity. That makes rising APRs particularly painful. Calderon's formulation is apt: policymakers have identified the right problem. The harder question is whether they have identified the right solution. The 10% Interest Rate Cap: Lessons from History The proposal to impose a flat 10% nationwide cap on credit card interest rates for one year would represent an unprecedented federal intervention into unsecured revolving credit markets. Credit cards are unsecured and priced for risk. Interest margins help issuers cover expected charge-offs, volatility, and operational costs. If pricing flexibility is removed, lenders cannot simply absorb the loss, they adjust. Historically, those adjustments take predictable forms: • Tighter underwriting standards • Higher minimum credit scores • Lower credit limits • Reduced rewards programs • Increased non-interest fees • Exit from higher-risk market segments The likely result, as Calderon noted, is credit contraction, particularly affecting marginal and lower-income borrowers. The most relevant historical example may be the 1980 credit controls imposed during the Carter Administration, which were rescinded within months after causing severe market disruption. A more targeted example is the 36% APR cap under the Military Lending Act, which illustrates both the importance of bipartisan legislative design and the reality that even well-intentioned caps can reduce access at the margins. Recent Federal Reserve research on state usury caps reinforces this concern: when interest rate ceilings are imposed, credit to higher-risk borrowers contracts, credit to lower-risk borrowers expands, and delinquency rates do not meaningfully improve. In other words, credit is reallocated, not necessarily improved. Even a "temporary" cap may have durable consequences. Issuers that exit certain segments or reduce credit lines are not obligated, and may not be economically inclined, to restore them once the cap expires. Credit score impacts and reduced access can linger well beyond the formal life of the policy. As Calderon put it, blunt price controls are a chainsaw when what is needed is a scalpel. Affordability in Context: What Drives Household Budgets? An additional consideration is scale. Research recently highlighted by the Consumer Bankers Association shows that the fastest-growing household expenses from 2013–2024 were healthcare, shelter, food, and vehicles. Credit card interest represents a relatively small share of average household expenditures. This does not minimize the pain of high APRs, especially for households carrying persistent balances, but it does raise an important structural question: can credit card rate caps meaningfully solve broader affordability challenges rooted in housing, medical costs, food inflation, and transportation? Credit cards are often the mechanism households use to cope with those rising costs. Constraining access to that liquidity may exacerbate, rather than relieve, financial stress. The Credit Card Competition Act: Structural Reform or Indirect Price Control? The second proposal we discussed, the Credit Card Competition Act (the "CCCA"), takes a different approach. Rather than capping interest rates, the CCCA would require large issuers to offer merchants at least two unaffiliated network routing options (only one of which could be Visa or Mastercard). The theory is that routing competition would reduce interchange fees ("swipe fees"), lowering merchant costs and ultimately consumer prices. Merchants have generally supported the proposal. Banks and card issuers have strongly opposed it. The consumer-facing promise is straightforward: lower merchant fees should translate into lower retail prices, but history complicates that assumption. The Durbin Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act imposed caps on debit card interchange fees for large issuers and included routing requirements. While interchange revenue declined, Calderon pointed out that empirical evidence suggests that cost savings were not consistently passed through to consumers in the form of lower prices. At the same time, banks offset lost revenue through higher account fees and reduced benefits. A similar dynamic could unfold in the credit card market. Interchange revenue helps fund: • Rewards programs • Fraud detection and prevention • Customer service infrastructure • Risk management If that revenue is compressed, issuers may respond with tighter underwriting, reduced rewards, or new fee structures. As Calderon observed, although the CCCA operates through indirect price pressure rather than a direct APR ceiling, downstream effects could look similar. Distinguishing Populist Framing From Durable Reform Both the rate cap and the CCCA are framed as pro-consumer, populist reforms. The political appeal is clear, but distinguishing headline appeal from durable consumer benefit requires careful analysis. Calderon suggested several guideposts policymakers should consider: • Access – Does the reform preserve or expand access for low- and moderate-income borrowers? • Incidence – Who actually captures the gains? Consumers, merchants, intermediaries, or some combination? • Substitution effects – Does the policy push consumers toward higher-cost, less-regulated alternatives such as payday or fringe products? • Durability – What happens after implementation? Do markets rebound, or do credit line reductions and underwriting changes persist? These questions are not ideological. They are structural. Affordability and access are not opposing values. The policy challenge is designing reforms that alleviate financial strain without narrowing the regulated credit tools families rely on when emergencies arise. The Bottom Line Affordability concerns are real. Rising APRs are real. Financial stress among many households is real. But blunt price caps may reduce rates on paper while reducing access in practice. Structural competition mandates may promise savings that do not materialize at the checkout counter. Durable consumer protection requires careful calibration — the scalpel, not the chainsaw. For industry participants, policymakers, and advocates alike, the takeaway is straightforward: evidence and market mechanics matter. Populist framing may win headlines, but long-term financial stability depends on policy design that accounts for how credit markets actually function. As always, we will continue to monitor these proposals and their evolution in Congress and the Administration. It may be noteworthy that President Trump did not mention either proposal during his almost two-hour State of the Union Address on January 24th. Consumer Finance Monitor is hosted by Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel at Ballard Spahr, and the founder and former chair of the firm's Consumer Financial Services Group. We encourage listeners to subscribe to the podcast on their preferred platform for weekly insights into developments in the consumer finance industry.
“When you're dealing with life-safety systems, power failure simply isn't an option,” says Jake Jacoby, CEO of TELCLOUD. In the latest episode of the TELCLOUD POTS and Shots Podcast Series, Doug Green, Publisher of Technology Reseller News, speaks with Jacoby about one of the most important but sometimes overlooked elements of modern POTS replacement deployments: reliable backup power. As legacy copper networks disappear, organizations are replacing traditional POTS lines used by elevators, fire alarms, emergency phones, and security systems with modern IP and wireless solutions. While the new technologies provide flexibility and cost savings, Jacoby emphasizes that power resilience must be engineered into every deployment. Historically, copper lines delivered their own power from the central office, allowing analog phones and emergency systems to continue operating during local power outages. Modern replacements must replicate that reliability through battery backup systems and redundant power strategies. Jacoby explains that a properly designed POTS replacement solution must ensure that critical communications remain operational even when a building loses electricity. Backup batteries, remote monitoring, and system alerts are all part of the architecture needed to meet regulatory requirements and maintain life-safety compliance. The discussion also highlights the role of channel partners and MSPs in helping customers navigate this transition. As copper lines are retired worldwide, partners have an opportunity to modernize infrastructure while ensuring that the essential communication path for safety systems remains intact. For organizations deploying POTS replacement, Jacoby advises that reliability should always come first. “You're not just replacing a phone line,” he explains. “You're protecting the communication path for systems people rely on in emergencies.” The episode concludes with the series' signature Shots segment, where Jacoby continues the podcast's tradition of highlighting exceptional sipping tequilas—pairing conversations about mission-critical telecom infrastructure with a lighter moment for listeners. For more information, visit https://www.telcloud.com/ or call 844-900-2270.
Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore assess the potential market outcomes of the Middle East conflict, weighing its possible duration and economic impact.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, the market reaction, and what investors should be watching for next. It's Wednesday, March 4th at 7:30am in San Francisco. Ariana Salvatore: And 10:30am in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, I'm in San Francisco at Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference, but obviously events in the Middle East have captured everyone's attention. There's uncertainty around the conflict and really important questions about how it affects all of us. And of course, markets have to discount all sorts of future uncertainty about very specific impacts – to financial asset prices, to commodity prices – and really look at it through that narrow lens.And so, Ariana, the administration has suggested that this conflict and this campaign could last a few weeks. But also it said it could continue as long as it takes. So, what are the clearest signals investors should watch for to gauge duration? Ariana Salvatore: For now, we're focused on three main indicators. First, I would say, and most important, is clarity around the objectives. The president and others in the administration have referenced things like eliminating Iran's missile arsenal, its navy and limiting proxy activity. Those goals are broader than the earlier focus on just the nuclear programs. Each objective, of course, implies a different timeline. A narrower objective likely means a shorter engagement. Broader ambitions, conversely, would extend it. So that's the first thing. Second, obviously extremely important is traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We'd viewed a full closure as unlikely, given the economic consequences for Iran itself. But tanker flows have at least temporarily fallen close to zero, and that's significant because production across the region has not been impaired. This is not about oil fields going offline. It's about whether or not oil can actually move. If shipping lanes normalize within weeks, markets can recalibrate. However, if flows remain materially curtailed beyond five weeks, the risks rise meaningfully. Third, the frequency of strikes and proxy activity. Sustained or escalating engagement would suggest a longer conflict. Signs of diplomacy, on the other hand, might indicate de-escalation. Michael Zezas: Right. So, let's build on that and talk about oil. And our colleague, Martijn Rats has really laid this out with a lot of different scenarios. But what we're seeing right now is that when it comes to oil, this is really a shock to the transport of it, not necessarily a shock to its production. So, oil supply exists. The question is really – can it be delivered or not? So, if tanker flows normalize and the geopolitical risk premium fades, what Martijn is saying is that global oil prices could move back towards $60 to $65 a barrel. If the logistical disruption lasts four to five weeks, then prices maybe trade in the $75 to $80 range. And if disruption extends beyond five weeks and flows are materially constrained, then you could see a situation where oil prices have to rise towards $120 or $130 a barrel. And at that level, demand destruction is what becomes the balancing mechanism in setting price for oil. So, one signal to watch is longer dated oil prices. Early month contracts can spike during geopolitical stress, but a sustained move materially above $80 to $85 [per] barrel would likely require longer dated prices to move higher as well. And that might signal that markets believe the disruption is persistent and not temporary. Ariana, what about natural gas here? How does gas situation fit into the energy story? Ariana Salvatore: As of this recording, Qatar has halted liquified natural gas production putting roughly 20 percent of global supply at risk. Prices have, as you might expect, risen sharply, which likely reflects expectations of a relatively short disruption. If exports were to resume quickly, prices could retrace. But, of course, if the outage lasts longer, prices could move meaningfully higher. Again, duration of the conflict is really critical here. Michael Zezas: So, let's bring this back to the U.S. Ariana, how does this conflict feed into the domestic, political and economic backdrop? Ariana Salvatore: When we're thinking about the midterm elections later this year, the way we see it, the clearest transmission channel is gasoline prices. Polling shows a majority of Americans oppose military action related to Iran, but voters typically prioritize domestic issues: things like inflation, cost of living, affordability over foreign policy. However, there's a very clear caveat here. If oil prices stay elevated, gasoline prices rise, and that's where this becomes politically more salient. Michael Zezas: Right, and so our economists and our chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen has been all over this. And the way he assesses it is if oil prices remain about 10 percent higher than where they were before the conflict for several months, headline inflation would likely rise by 0.3 percent before dissipating. Historically, oil price shocks primarily affect headline inflation rather than underlying inflation. That's an important distinction that they point out. So maybe that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, even if policymakers ultimately look through the move. But if oil prices rise enough to weaken economic activity, particularly in the labor market or consumer spending, then our economists say the Fed could pivot toward easing despite elevated inflation. Ariana Salvatore: So, given that backdrop, what's the simple takeaway for investors in stocks or bonds? Michael Zezas: Right. So, I think we have to think about this in terms of duration of conflict and economic impact. So, if tanker flows normalize within a few weeks and oil prices move back towards that $60 to $65 range, then our economists are saying economic damage would be limited. And historically geopolitical events alone have not led to sustained volatility for U.S. equities. So, in that environment, our cross-asset team points out that stocks would likely remain supported. If instead, oil prices remain elevated long enough to push inflation higher and weigh on growth, the picture would change. A sharp and persistent rise in oil prices – that can pose a risk to the duration of the business cycle, and in that scenario, we'd expect stocks to struggle. Importantly, bonds may not provide the same diversification benefit if inflation remains sticky as a consequence of all of this. We could see stock and bond prices move in the same direction. That could challenge traditional balanced portfolios. Ariana Salvatore: And what are we seeing specifically in U.S. Treasury markets? Michael Zezas: So, as Matt Hornbach and our global macro strategy team have pointed out here, you've got two competing forces in the U.S. Treasury market. There's been some demand for safety, but investors are also focused on the risk that higher oil prices would lift inflation. So far, inflation concerns have taken precedence over growth concerns. How long that balance holds – that might depend on incoming data, especially labor market data. If you get weaker labor market data suggesting that growth could weaken, then you could see treasuries rally more meaningfully and yields come down. If you don't see that and inflation concerns dominate, then maybe you're not going to see yields come down as much. And bonds rally as much. Ariana Salvatore: So, stepping back, it seems like the key variables remain tanker traffic, longer dated oil prices and duration of the conflict itself. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. Ariana, thanks for speaking with me. Ariana Salvatore: Always a pleasure, Mike. Michael Zezas: And thanks to our listeners for joining us. We'll continue tracking developments and what they mean for markets. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.
A new generational poll is raising eyebrows — and igniting controversy. According to research led by psychologist Jean Twenge, the percentage of young adults identifying as LGBTQ has fallen sharply after peaking just a few years ago. 2022: 20% of young adults identified as LGB 2025: 15% identify as LGB A 21% decline in just three years What happened? Was the spike cultural? Political? Generational? Did media representation inflate identity trends? Or is this simply a correction after rapid social change? Today, we unpack: The dramatic Gen Z identity surge Why identification peaked in 2022 The role of media and corporate representation The “social contagion” debate Whether political power influences cultural identity This is one of the most sensitive — and statistically fascinating — cultural shifts of the decade.
David McKnight discusses the allocation of $1M if he had it to invest in 2026. David sees a taxable brokerage account as the least efficient investment account you could possibly own – since it's taxed every year and it's exposed to both short- and long-term capital gains. While this type of account is liquid and can serve as an excellent emergency fund, it's the most tax-unfriendly of all the investment alternatives. The goal, says David, isn't to grow wealth within this type of account, rather to use it as a funding source to systematically build multiple tax-free income streams for retirement. Roth IRAs, which can be funded for a combined $17,200 per year (for your and your spouse's Roth IRA) is the first place David believes the money should go. Next, you should aim at maxing out your Roth 401(k)s – which is $24,500 a person for people under 50 and $32,500 per person. David explains how you can convert taxable money into tax-free money without triggering a massive taxable event and without disrupting your lifestyle. 70% total U.S. stock market index fund, 30% total international stock market index fund is the only allocation you'll ever need, says David. Having to properly structure and fully fund an indexed universal life policy (IUL) is the most misunderstood piece of the strategy discussed by David. The idea is to see an IUL as a way to grow a portion of the $1M portfolio safely and productively, and not to use it as an investment replacement or stock alternative… Historically, IULs have grown 5-7% in net fees over time – with zero stock market risks. The goal of day one of retirement is to have 3-5 years of living expenses sitting in your IUL's cash value, tax-free. This is your volatility buffer. According to a recent Ernst & Young study, the strategy discussed in this episode provides far more income, a far greater likelihood that your money will last through life expectancy and far more money to the next generation compared to the investment-only approach. Suze Orman recommends the exact same strategy but with a difference: Instead of using an IUL she suggests using a savings account that has rock bottom taxable rates of return. However, an IUL is a more effective tool, as it grows far more productively as tax-free, protects your principal, and the death benefit can double as long-term care protection. David's strategy doesn't include bonds as an IUL is safer: No sequence of returns risk early in retirement, not being forced to sell stocks in a down market. "I generally don't ever recommend bonds. There are far better instruments that are safer, more productive, and more tax-efficient tools, with IUL being one of them", illustrates David. Many experts expect tax rates to rise dramatically by 2035 to pay interest on the national debt, bail out Social Security, and bail out Medicare and Medicaid. When that happens, you just don't want to be sitting on a massive taxable account..! The goal is to shift as much as possible from the $1M portfolio into tax-free accounts before 2035 – you want to have them in your Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k)s, and IUL cash value. Conversely, you only want about six months' worth of living expenses sitting in your taxable account. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Dave Ramsey Ernst & Young Suze Orman
Chapter OneThere are years that feel ordinary while you are living them. Whispered years. Years that you don't remember once they are over. Maybe, if something did happen in one of those years, you only understand later that something shifted.The Year of the Fire Horse is not a whispering year.In the Chinese zodiac cycle, the Horse is movement, vitality, forward momentum, raw life force. Add Fire to that, and the energy does not stroll. It gallops. It blazes. It exposes. It refuses stagnation. The Fire Horse does not tolerate fences built from fear, complacency, or stagnation. It does not tolerate fences built from anything, actually.Historically, Fire Horse years have been associated with intensity and social change. They stir people from complacency. They amplify what already exists. They accelerate timelines. They reveal where something is alive and where it has decayed.In 1966, the world did not whisper.The Cultural Revolution erupted in China, unleashing ideological purges and youth-driven extremism. At the same time, The Beatles released Revolver, pushing music, consciousness, and culture into unfamiliar territory. Psychedelic experimentation entered mainstream awareness. The Vietnam War escalated. Protest movements strengthened. The space race accelerated. The collective drive to enlightenment and awakening was hijacked into a hyper-individual identity. The “I AM” path became louder than the shared field of true enlightenment.1966 was not a quiet year. And it was Light/Dark.The same intensity that fueled creative breakthroughs also fueled destruction. The same fire that broke artistic barriers also burned institutions to the ground. The energy itself was neutral. The direction it took depended on who held it. And as the holders of power were light/dark, so were the results at a global social scale, dipped in light and dark. The energy from 1966 fueled the light/dark paradigm for decades.The light/dark paradigm drivers know about the Year of the Fire Horse. They know the energy it encompasses, and they know how to use it.Here is the clincher for 2026, however: The light rules.The words “light rules” are not said in a sentimental way. Not in a triumphalist way. But structurally. The field has shifted from light/dark to light-only. What worked in 1966 to derail collective awakening will not function the same way now. At least, it will not function in the same way for those who have chosen LIGHT. For those who choose to stay in light/dark, sure, it functions the same way for them. And it will be fast and furious as it materializes their choice.The Fire Horse runs fast this year.Darkness or hyper-individualism expressed as a personal path of enlightenment will no longer be an option for the rest of us, however.For us, the LIGHT, the Fire Horse opens its eyes, shakes the chains and dusts them off, rears, finds a focus, and runs fast and furious, not caring what falls in its path. And what falls in its path this year is darkness. Inner darkness, outer darkness, all darkness. It will burn. Burn. Burn.The discussion doesn't stop here - listen to the full podcast episode for unfiltered insights from Inelia and our panelists. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.drivingtotherez.com/subscribe
Between 1972 and 1997 the Southeastern Conference in basketball grew in stature from just being a premier football conference. During that time of conference growth of both prominence and popularity, the team most emblematic of that growth in national prestige was located in -- of all places-- Baton Rouge Louisiana. And the leader of this team from the sidelines hailed from the hinterlands of North Dakota. In his episode of the Historically Speaking Sports Podcast, Co-hosts Dana Auguster and Charles Combs highlight the era of LSU Tigers basketball under the direction of Head Coach Dale Brown. During his tenure with the Tigers, Brown didn't just coach basketball at LSU, he made it matter in a football crazed state and made it a national brand. He took a program that had flashes of relevance and turned into a powerhouse that would go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country. This was the era of superstars such as Chris Jackson who would later become Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, whose scoring brilliance electrified the country and garnered comparisons to Pete Maravich. It was also the era of the unstoppable force of Shaquille O'Neal, a once in a generation talent who turned LSU into must see TV. And before them there was Rudy Macklin leading the Tigers to the final four, for the first time since the early 1950s But the Dale Brown era wasn't just about wins and NBA draft picks .It was about personality, passion and conviction. Brown was outspoken, emotional, sometimes controversial -- a coach who wore his heart on his sleeve and fought fiercely for his players. He believed LSU could compete with the blue bloods of college basketball and for stretches from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s ... it absolutely did. To contact the show please e-mail us at Historically.Speaking.Sports@gmail.com
To celebrate International Women's Day, which falls on March 8th, Bababam is replaying Do You Really Know episodes which look at the struggle against inequalities between women and men. All week long, refresh your knowledge about ideas and concepts which promote female empowerment. What is the female gaze? The term “female gaze” has been used in recent years to describe art that subverts the male perspective. The concept is seen as a response to Laura Mulvey's 1975 essay about the so-called “male gaze”. Historically, this has been the dominant way of viewing art forms, with the male creator and male characters catering to male viewers. The rest of the characters often exist mainly to serve the male lead, his interests and his story. As a result, women have often been objectified or ignored, with their characters oversimplified. Why has this happened? Is it about reversing the roles and objectifying men rather than women? What are some examples of female gaze films then? In under 3 minutes, we answer your questions! To listen the last episodes, you can click here: What is white privilege? What is CrossFit? What is jiko sekinin? A podcast written and realised by Joseph Chance. First Broadcast: 10/3/2022 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For the first time in over a decade, I'm actively chasing status in multiple loyalty programs—and it's a major shift from my usual points strategy. Historically, status hasn't been a focus for me beyond Hyatt Globalist. But this year, I'm pursuing top-tier or near top-tier status in four programs: Hyatt Globalist, Bilt Platinum, Air France Flying Blue Platinum, and American Airlines Platinum Pro. Listen in as I walk through why these specific statuses suddenly jumped to the top of my priority list, what benefits justify the effort required to earn them, and my exact plan for qualifying for each one. I also share the four key questions to ask yourself before chasing any status, because the reality is that you don't need status to have a successful award travel experience. From understanding opportunity costs to accessing status benefits through credit cards instead, this episode covers how to evaluate whether pursuing status actually makes sense for your travel style and goals. Whether you're considering your own status strategy for the year or feeling confident about not chasing status at all, this episode will help you think strategically about how loyalty program status fits into your points plan. Get full show notes and transcript: https://pointmetofirstclass.com/2026-loyalty-status-strategy Want to shape the show? Take the Point Me To First Class listener survey and share what you love and want more of! Eager to learn the secrets of award travel so that you can turn your expenses into unforgettable experiences? Join the Points Made Easy course waitlist here: https://pointmetofirstclass.com/pointsmadeeasy
A Vision Born from Compassion Fifty-two years ago, educator Bill Moyers looked around his classroom and asked a simple but profound question: where will these students go after graduation? In 1974, opportunities for individuals with disabilities were virtually nonexistent. Rather than accepting this reality, Moyers and his colleagues founded Shen-Paco, an organization that would transform the lives of hundreds of individuals across Shenandoah and Page Counties. Today, Moyers remains the chairman of the board, still passionately committed to the mission he started over half a century ago. His vision has grown from a small workshop on Route 11 in New Market to a comprehensive network serving approximately 100 individuals across two facilities and three group homes. From Workshops to Day Programs The organization has evolved dramatically since its early days. Initially, Shen-Paco operated as a workshop where individuals performed sub-minimum wage work. However, as Ingrid Thompson, the organization's outreach coordinator, explains, the word "workshop" has been removed from their dictionary entirely. This shift represents far more than semantic change—it reflects a fundamental transformation in how society views and serves people with disabilities. Instead of focusing on work, Shen-Paco now operates as a day program where individuals come to enjoy camaraderie with their peers, participate in crafts, and engage with their community. The change, Ingrid emphasizes, isn't a step backward—it's actually progress. The individuals served by Shen-Paco are living their best lives, free from the pressure of productivity metrics and workplace demands. More Than Activities: Building Community On any given day at Shen-Paco's facilities in Quicksburg or Luray, you'll find individuals participating in bingo tournaments, showing off their karaoke skills, or working on craft projects. Visitors regularly stop by to share their talents—from musicians performing concerts to woodworkers demonstrating their craft. The Sheetz organization makes an annual visit with their tanker truck, bringing treats that delight everyone. Yet the most critical component of Shen-Paco's program happens beyond their bright blue building's walls. Every single day, staff members take individuals out into the community. Sometimes it's just a quick trip to 7-Eleven for a drink. Other times, they visit coffee shops, restaurants, or stores throughout the valley. These outings serve a dual purpose that extends far beyond simple recreation. Changing Perceptions, One Interaction at a Time Ingrid passionately believes these community interactions are essential for breaking down decades of stigma. Historically, individuals with disabilities were hidden away in institutions or kept at home, invisible to the general public. Consequently, many people developed unfounded fears and misconceptions about interacting with disabled individuals. "They're just human beings like you or me," Ingrid explains. "They just may need a little bit of help here or there." She recounts a memorable trip to Chick-fil-A in Harrisonburg where a couple not only paid for the group's meals but also gave them a gift card, moved by witnessing Shen-Paco's work firsthand. These moments of connection are precisely what the organization aims to create. Furthermore, Thompson notes that individuals with disabilities are always accompanied by staff members or family, ensuring safe and supported interactions. They're non-judgmental, incredibly complimentary, and often surprisingly knowledgeable about specific subjects that capture their interest. The Brain Works Differently, Not Less One of the most important points Ingrid emphasizes is that individuals with disabilities possess remarkable intelligence—their brains simply work differently. Many excel at mathematics, others play piano beautifully, and some become experts on topics that fascinate them. When given the opportunity, they demonstrate depth of knowledge that often surprises people encountering them for the first time. Moreover, Thompson suggests that everyone has some form of disability. The difference is that most people have learned to adapt, while some individuals need additional support to navigate those challenges. This reframing helps normalize disability as part of the human experience rather than something separate or "other." Beyond Day Programs: A Home Away from Home While many people know Shen-Paco from its day program facilities, the organization also operates three group homes—two in New Market and one in Stanley. These homes house approximately twelve individuals who need residential support. As caregivers age, they often reach a point where they can no longer provide the physical care their loved ones require. Shen-Paco's group homes offer a solution, and the organization is already exploring the purchase of another home to meet growing demand. Ingrid jokes that she wants to live in these homes herself—they're beautifully maintained spaces where residents receive excellent care while maintaining as much independence as possible. The Reality of Funding Despite its vital role in the community, Shen-Paco faces significant financial challenges. The organization operates as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, and most individuals attend through Medicaid waiver programs funded by their Social Security Disability benefits. While self-pay options exist, the reality is that Shen-Paco relies heavily on grants, fundraising, and community donations to bridge funding gaps. Currently, the organization's most pressing need involves its fleet of twenty-one vehicles. With an average age of twelve years, these vehicles require constant maintenance. A single set of tires costs around $1,000—multiply that by twenty-one vehicles, and the numbers become staggering. Add in brake replacements, oil changes, and general wear and tear, and transportation costs quickly spiral. Meanwhile, obtaining new buses through the grant process takes two to three years. Therefore, Shen-Paco must maintain its aging fleet while waiting for replacements. Shen-Paco has launched a fundraising campaign specifically targeting vehicle maintenance costs, recognizing that transportation is absolutely essential to the community integration that lies at the heart of their mission. How the Community Can Help Ingrid offers several ways community members can support Shen-Paco's work. Financial donations help fund outings—a simple coffee shop visit for five people costs $30, while zoo trips and other excursions require even more resources. Donations can be made through the organization's newly redesigned website at www.shen-paco.org or mailed directly to their Quicksburg facility. Additionally, the organization welcomes invitations from local businesses. Whether it's a coffee roaster showing how beans are ground or a manufacturer demonstrating production processes, these behind-the-scenes experiences provide invaluable learning opportunities. Shen-Paco typically brings small groups of five or six individuals, making visits manageable for host businesses. Mechanics and automotive businesses can also make a tremendous impact by offering discounted or pro bono services for the vehicle fleet. Every oil change, tire rotation, or brake job donated directly supports the mission of community integration. An Open Invitation Ingrid extends a warm invitation to anyone curious about Shen-Paco's work: visit the bright blue building in Quicksburg or the Luray facility anytime. See firsthand how individuals participate in activities, interact with staff, and prepare for community outings. Witness the hugs Ingrid receives each morning from people living their best lives, starting each day with genuine joy and affection. As March's Disability Awareness Month draws attention to these issues, Ingrid hopes the conversation continues long beyond the calendar page turns. Changing perceptions requires ongoing effort, consistent community presence, and countless individual interactions that gradually erode outdated stigmas. Looking Forward After fifty-two years, Shen-Paco continues adapting to meet evolving needs. The transition from workshops to day programs reflects broader societal shifts in understanding disability services. The expansion into group homes addresses aging caregivers' concerns. The emphasis on community integration actively combats isolation and stigma. Through it all, Bill Moyers' original question remains relevant: where will these individuals go? Thanks to Shen-Paco, the answer is everywhere—coffee shops, stores, restaurants, zoos, and countless other places throughout the Shenandoah Valley. They're not hidden away or segregated. Instead, they're living full, engaged lives as valued community members. As Ingrid reminds us, these individuals don't judge. They offer unconditional acceptance, genuine compliments, and pure joy. Perhaps the real question isn't how we can help them, but rather what we can learn from their approach to life. In a world often characterized by criticism and division, their non-judgmental kindness offers a powerful alternative. For more information or to support Shen-Paco's mission, visit www.shen-paco.org or contact Ingrid Thompson at 540-325-7597.
If you go back and look at the history of how Blacks in America have been limited in their pursuit of the American Dream by way of home ownership, the record is staggering. Historically there have been racial covenants, redlining, predatory mortgage lending, blockbusting, urban renewal and now we can add a new pernicious tool: property tax foreclosures. Our guest, Professor Bernadette Atuahene, the author of “Plundered: How Racist Policies Undermine Black Homeownership in America,” describes, chapter and verse, how this practice has been done in Detroit, the focus of the book’s case study. Yet, this tactic, along with the others listed above, have been commonplace throughout the nation. You will find in listening to this podcast that our guest is clear-eyed about the many machinations which have grown the wealth disparity in our nation. The transfer of wealth from one generation to another is a product of home ownership: thus, the vast differentials between races. She will acquaint you with terms like ‘structural injustice’, ‘predatory governance, ‘ and ‘acts of legal violence.’ Many practices we would all find objectionable in this age are hiding in plain sight. After listening to this podcast, you will be much better equipped to identify them. And like the scholar/activist our guest is, perhaps, you can do something in your community to remedy them.
Flush season is here. Protein solids are up. Global milk production is up. So… Where's all the skim milk powder? In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team sits down with Martijn Goedhart and Henk-Jan Bouwman of Cefetra Dairy for a European perspective on the volatility rippling through global dairy markets. We talk through how traders got caught short and why the spring flush might not loosen up the skim milk powder/nonfat dry milk market. Plus, are we pricing U.S. out of the export market? We'll get you up to speed on: Why skim solids are being pulled away from dryers and into protein streams How hand-to-mouth buying turned into a short squeeze What record-high butter stocks in Europe mean for upside potential Tune in to hear how Europe and the U.S. are navigating one of the most volatile stretches in recent memory. L If you're making sourcing or coverage decisions right now, don't miss The Milk Check episode 94: The Dryer's Getting Robbed. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check TMC-Intro-final Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on The Milk Check. Martijn Goedhart: You have supply growing, and then you think, “Oh, we’re gonna build stocks.” But then, demand caught up. And quite viciously. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week we are excited to have two special guests, Martijnjn Goedhart and Henk-Jan Bouwman from Cefetra Dairy in the Netherlands. We’ve been working closely with these guys for some time and we thought it would be a great idea given all the craziness and dairy markets going on in the United States, to ask them to give us a little bit of perspective on what’s going on in Europe so we can get a feel for how the global markets are affecting our U.S. dairy markets. Martijn, Henk, thanks for joining us today. Martijn Goedhart: Thanks for having us, Ted. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Thank you, Ted. Ted Jacoby III: I feel like what’s going on in nonfat right now more has an origin in the U.S., but I also noticed that you guys started to feel that maybe this market was gonna be a little bit shorter than we expected over in Europe before we realized it in the U.S. [00:01:00] Tell us about the skim milk powder market in Europe and what’s been going on the last month. Martijn Goedhart: In Europe, we’ve been overwhelmed by milk production growth since the second half of 2025, due to bluetongue, late calving, second peak, as some of us call it. And that has resulted in good outputs, and that output needs to go to the commodities. So, we’ve seen butter stocks build up significantly, and everyone assumed that that would mean that the skimmed stocks were also building up because that’s basically the other product you’re gonna produce when you do butter, right? A few things we, I think, overlooked is like the general protein trend in the world and the demand for protein, both on the whey side as well as on the milk side nowadays. So a lot of protein has ended up in other products than your typical skimmed nonfat production bucket. Adding to that, Europe has been the most competitive source in the world market for a long time. Demand wasn’t great because buyers were buying hand-to-mouth because they would basically wait for that carry to come toward them and buy at the lowest price at the last moment. But [00:02:00] now we see that the exports out of Europe have been great. And that’s been keeping the market clean. I think some traders speculated on lower prices and got caught short, basically needed to cover. And that’s where we are at now. And I think more than ever, if you look at NZX (New Zealand Exchange), this all started with a firmer GDT (Global Dairy Trade), with China stocking up a bit. So, if you look at NZX, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and EEX (European Energy Exchange), those markets are starting to correlate better than they did before because everyone’s looking at the developments of the other exchanges and then draw their conclusions for their own home base. And yeah, that cocktail, together with some U.S. developments that we’re gonna dive into, has caused record-high volatility over the last few weeks. Ted Jacoby III: So, Martijn, you’re telling a story that sounds very familiar ‘ cause that’s exactly what we’ve seen here in the U.S. We’re not making anywhere near as much nonfat dry milk as we expected because the protein demand is forcing those skim solids into other places. What are those other places in Europe? Where is that protein being used and what is it being made into in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: I think there’s two main [00:03:00] streams. Bear in mind that the milk pressure in Europe was so high that you need to burn milk, and the way to do that is to produce casein. So, I think casein production has increased by like double-digit numbers, that’s not because it was such a nice valorization, you can just dry more milk per hour. And considering the liquid markets over the last few months, during our low season, liquid milk was trading way below the commodity equivalent, proving that there’s a surplus of liquid milk that can’t be processed by drying it or churning it. So, that’s one part. The other part is, it’s the same in the U.S. We’ve been around here for a few days now, but in Europe, you see the same: everything is protein fortified, extra protein, in basically everything you can buy. So, a lot of protein that is processed in line before it even reaches the other class. So, like the dryers basically. Ted Jacoby III: Martijn and Henk, do you guys think that the skim milk powder market in Europe has tightened up primarily because everybody who was living hand-to-mouth saw the market started going up, and they decided they wanted to buy more now because they wanted to get the product at a lower price before the price [00:04:00] went higher, and then they just started chasing the market? Or do you think demand has shifted and there’s a true increase in the demand for the product? Henk-Jan Bouwman: There’s two things to touch upon here, Ted. One is, you’re absolutely right: people were buying hand-to-mouth, and they were actually rewarded for doing that because everybody believed that the price of tomorrow was better than the price of today. And for a fairly long period of time, they got rewarded for that. That also led to traders being short, as Martijn touched upon. From a demand perspective, yes, there’s actually quite some demand, and people also realize that they have to turn to Europe to find their cheapest skim. That also creates a bit of a demand pull towards European skim, which makes the price go up. And we’ve seen that, in particular, in low heat in comparison to medium heat. But in general, export markets for us are pretty strong, and, I would say, pretty much all the demand ends in European skim milk powder of origins. Josh White: Is anybody extending days in inventory? Do we think that there’s a short squeeze driving international clients to buy a couple extra weeks, a month, more than that of product? The nature of your question, Ted, [00:05:00] is what’s caused us to tighten up on that product? Is it truly demand for nonfat dry milk, or is it just reduced production overall? And I think maybe it’s both in a way. On the one hand, Martijn mentioned that the catalyst of this was actually a GDT event where China stepped in and bought more. And I think that we’ve been talking about the disappearance of China as a structural buyer of milk powder for quite some time. But their stocks to use ratio has been reported to be fairly low, and maybe they felt it was time to extend some days of inventory. At the same time, you evidenced what’s happening in the U.S., And Martijn alluded to it a little bit in Europe as well, that the pull for dairy protein in general is actually vacuuming some solids away from the dryer, and particularly the SMP or the nonfat dryer. So, is it both? Are we seeing people look to build a little bit more safety stock at the same time that our production is down a bit because protein demand overall is robbing our supply. Henk-Jan Bouwman: There’s a, there’s a couple of things to touch upon, Josh. One is in this whole upward movement, there were quite some international buyers [00:06:00] who still had demand open, for instance, for Q2 and Q3, and decided to step in and said, “Hey, this is a moment to buy, to cover that demand, because I am anticipating an upward movement.” So, in that sense, I’m completely with you. Producers did the same, as well. For them it was also attractive to lock some forward sales. And that has led to lesser availability of skim in EU. And that basically also caused the rally to continue. Martijn Goedhart: I think the difference with the U.S., as I understand it, is we have never not been able to buy product during this whole volatility. So, producers were always offering, customers would like step in, step out. If they really need it, they would book. They were also cautious. And we went up, then we went down, then we went up again. But in that down movement, customers were like, “Yeah, you see, so it’ll come off again.” So, that didn’t prompt them to build any length. I think producers did fairly well in putting a fundament below their sales book for the flush that’s upcoming. Traders are holding a fair bit of cash product right now for the next three, four months. It’s not tight as [00:07:00] such, but you see that certain buyers need certain origins that are scarce. So, it’s very much about the origin, the spec, and the product that you have, whether you can monetize on those higher prices. Ted Jacoby III: It seems to me, just listening to you guys talk about Europe, that the U.S. and Europe are both experiencing a very similar phenomenon in our supply chain. Demand for protein is pulling skim solids away from the dryer, first and foremost, which means on a skim milk powder / nonfat dry milk supply-demand balance, you’re reducing the supply even though we are both experiencing pretty significant increases in milk production. The traditional math is: more milk means more skim milk powder. It didn’t happen this time around, and it caught people by surprise. The demand for protein in Europe, just like in the U.S., is exceptional right now. But then that makes me ask the question: if we have less skim solids, in the form of skim milk powder and nonfat, in the global supply chain, is this increase in price directly proportional [00:08:00] to reduced supply, so we got more people buying because they want to get in the front of it. So, you got this bubble. But you also have had this slow decrease in overall skim milk powder demand going on. Like a slow creep every year. I’m not sure if it’s about 1%, but we’ve all kind of felt it that the global demand for skim milk powder has been just slowly weakening, but this sudden supply crunch was a bigger issue than the slow decrease in demand, and it caused this price bubble that’s just gonna take some time to work itself out. And if the protein continues to take the skim solids away from the dryers, it may be a really long time before it works itself out. Martijn Goedhart: Q4 of global SMP export has been very strong, but Q3 and Q2 were relatively weak. I’d have to look at how the balance looks at the end of the year. Also, the export figures have been more volatile than Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. Martijn Goedhart: Before. So, I think everyone thought like, “Okay, demand is sluggish. We have so much milk in the U.S. We have so much milk in Europe. [00:09:00] New Zealand’s season is looking good.” So, in your mind, you extrapolate that demand. Then, you have supply growing, and then you think, “Oh, we’re gonna build stocks.” But then, demand caught up. And quite viciously. So, that’s the thing I think people underestimated. We’re in a situation where we don’t see any old stocks or inventories building up. Josh White: So I wanna throw three thoughts out. On the first hand, we know our global milk supply is year over year up significantly. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Josh White: On a solids basis, protein and fat are up significantly. We’re talking about the overflow valve, the powder stocks not being very robust, and that on the end-user level, globally, people didn’t have a lot of additional days of inventory. So, that would suggest on one hand, maybe we need all this milk. Maybe we need it. Demand for protein and other products is up enough that we need all this milk. But then on the other hand, I think there’s probably two things that we need to be careful that we don’t overreact to. There’s seasonality in our products. We know that the northern hemisphere heavy milk production season is upon us. We’ve [00:10:00] started in California. We’re gonna continue to see our daily milk volumes increase seasonally in the U.S. as we get into the second quarter. Another thing that I’m wondering being, you guys with more international trade experience coming out of Europe is: buying seasonality. So, Ramadan every year moves up a little bit; Chinese New Year, there’s usually a surge leading up to it. And it’s gotten to the point where that was almost a collision with the traditional holiday season of December. Is it possible that we just robbed demand from the first quarter, and everyone tried to get in front of some of that demand in the late third and early fourth quarter, and that we’re about to go into a unique seasonal period where customers have now gotten scared. They’ve extended a few days in inventory, the structural demand won’t be there at the same time that the northern hemisphere flush is upon us. I mean, is it possible that we were just short squeezed based on seasonal issues in the first quarter, and we’re gonna resolve that with plenty of product in the second quarter? One final note I think that we [00:11:00] shouldn’t forget is that our year over year comparables are against a disease-infested 2024. We had bird flu in the U.S.; we had bluetongue to in Europe. How much are we actually over 2023 going into 2024. Ted Jacoby III: On 2023 versus 2024, I think Europe, you guys were down like a half a percent to 1% in 24. Does that sound about right? Martijn Goedhart: 23, 24 was pretty much flat. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: And 24, 25 we added like a hundred thousand metric tons. So, like, 6%, 7%. 24, 25. Ted Jacoby III: So you guys had a couple of flat years, followed by a year where you added quite a bit. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Which actually is pretty similar to what happened in the U.S. Yes. We had some disease like avian flu , and bird flu hit California ,and we were down in some places and up in others, but overall we were flat. But the solids were up a little bit. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: While dairy prices were decent, I didn’t feel like we were facing a massive supply scarcity in those two flat years, which is one of the [00:12:00] things that has me very perplexed about what’s going on now. Because it’s one thing to say, Hey, there’s all this new demand for protein. All the skim solids are going to protein, and that’s why there isn’t any skim milk powder in nonfat. Okay, let me phrase this a different way. That means that we are suddenly being faced with massive increases in demand for protein. The price of protein today is a lot higher than it was a year and a half ago when we were dealing with flat supply. So, why is protein demand so much higher now compared to a year ago? Is it completely and solely demand driven? As amateur economists , like all traders are, that math doesn’t seem right. Martijn Goedhart: Last year, we had significant competition among our export customers from Iran and Belarus, in terms of SMP. The Iran exports were surging. I think it was like 150,000 tons of skim, something like that, that suddenly shows up. Europe is doing about 700. So, that has an impact when you’re talking to [00:13:00] buyers. But that disappeared just as quickly as it appeared. Which yeah, that 150,000 tons, or whatever it was, it will turn back to the next cheapest origin, which was Europe. So, demand didn’t grow, but shifted towards another origin being EU. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Yeah, I think in general, overall competitiveness of EU skim milk powder is a lot better than last year, even in comparison to a bigger skim producing regions. As Martijnn touched upon, being based in the Middle East, I saw a lot of competition coming out of origins, which were a bit more nontraditional. Iran was one of them. What happened is their overall competitiveness finished really, really quickly due to a couple of things. One of them being disease. So, they had foot-and-mouth disease in Iran. Two, their overall ability to import a sufficient amount of feed, and three, their competitiveness due to a currency standpoint, which quickly changed. That, indeed, meant that the material that was supplied by Iran is now being supplied by Europe. Diego Carvallo: It’s a fascinating situation. Some of those [00:14:00] solids that are going into MPCs are definitely reducing the demand for skim, unless it’s coming from a different end-user application. If we’re seeing the MPCs going into sports nutrition, it’s definitely new demand that is finding a new end-user. It’s a combination of a lot of the things that we have discussed in this call: the whole market being short and getting super used to being hand-to-mouth for years, where you could buy product cheaper a month from now, so, why would you buy it? Especially if you have high interest rates, right? So, that’s part of it. The other factor is definitely the whole market was shocked by the impact of the UF pull of the additional MPC production and the amount of solids that we’re not going into a dryer that everybody expected would go right. Also a few additional manufacturing productions, a few key plants in the U.S., this is starting to look like more of a fundamental shift than a short squeeze. [00:15:00] And three weeks ago, everybody was saying, “Yeah, short squeeze, it’s an amazing short squeeze. It’s gonna come down.” Right? And now that same rhetoric has been changing to, “Actually, this is not that much of a short squeeze, but it is more of a there are not that many solids.” There’s a new big plant in Texas. There’s a new big plant in New York. There’s a lot of solids that are being pulled, and nobody was taking that into account. Everybody was expecting after the bird flu in California, we’re simply gonna go back to producing the same amount of nonfat that we were producing two years ago. And if you look at the data, it’s not correct, you know, Josh White: We also gotta give credit to substitution and other things. And what I mean by that is like calf milk replacer industry in the U.S. Historically, we’ll toggle for the cheapest protein between whey and milk powders. For sure, we’re seeing that appetite pick up for nonfat dry milk right now. Whereas two years ago there was a lot of WPC 34 on the market. All of that’s gone [00:16:00] because of the whey movement. I think the utilization is shifting quite a bit. We’ve talked about where it’s more difficult to track where milk solids are being consumed into a lot of protein enhanced beverages and things along those lines. That’s becoming more difficult. We’re saying demand’s not great globally, but if you pick up feed demand because they can’t buy the whey products they bought before, that is more demand for milk powder. And by far the cheapest dairy protein right now is nonfat dry milk. The big question I have is seasonally in the second quarter, are we going to catch up? Are we gonna be able to catch up globally or not? I think the whole market’s really struggling to try to form an opinion on that. Mostly because we can’t really measure and put a finger on just how much new protein-related demand there is in that difficult to measure space that I alluded to earlier. Diego Carvallo: Particularly in the U.S. right? In Europe doesn’t seem like that situation is as strong as it is the U.S. It seems like in the U.S., you have all of these new [00:17:00] cheese plants and UF plants, Class I plants, et cetera. It seems like, at least in the U.S. that inventory building is gonna be more difficult than in other regions. Josh White: And the European dryers are full right now, correct? Martijn Goedhart: Yes. Josh White: And the California dryers are full right now. Midwest dryers are nowhere near full. The answer to that might be a little bit easier than we’re making this discussion. We’ve added a whole lot of cheese capacity. There’s plenty of milk, but a lot of it’s being processed into cheese. Ted Jacoby III: Are there many new dairy plants of any kind in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: Not coming online this flush as far as I know. Not surprisingly, but most of the investment obviously is in WPC and WPI, I think Friesland has a big plant coming up, but it’s 2027, am I right, Henk-Jan? Henk-Jan Bouwman: Their latest expansion is 27. Yes. Ted Jacoby III: So we’re not really seeing any milk solids going to new places in Europe. It’s all still within the traditional milk sheds going to the usual suspects. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Let’s switch topics to butter. The [00:18:00] U.S., a year ago, a year and a half ago, we were around $3 butter. It came down into the 2s, $2.50ish, and then the bottom dropped out, and it went all the way down to, I think, $1.28 at one point in the U.S. Now it’s back up in the $1.70s. But Europe dropped even more from an even higher precipice. Where have we been over the last year and where’s the butter market now in Europe, and what’s it doing? Martijn Goedhart: Yeah, well, butter was the main driver of the volatility that we see right now because €7 butter prices, the fed and the milk would already pay an above break-even price to farmers. And then your skim return is just bonus, right? Friesland just released their yearly report and they’ve been paying like, I think 56¢ on average, which is, well it’s a bit debatable, but I would say at least 16¢ above break-even. And then they get even a bit more profit share. That has like sparked that extra milk output, because every liter you produce is making you money as a farmer. You wanna get your components up, you wanna squeeze the maximum out of the milk. That’s how we ended up in this situation and the vicious correction at the other end of it that [00:19:00] we’ve seen. We’ve seen inventories build up and anecdotally we’ll also hear that all the chilled storage is full. That’s still the case. Those stocks haven’t disappeared. And also we’ve imported quite a bit when the spread with the U.S. and before New Zealand was significant enough to do so. That product is arriving now. And that adds to the supply pressure. However, that market has been stable for the last few months. I would say it’s been volatile, but we’re at the same levels than one and a half, two months ago. So that also shows that price correction ultimately also triggers extra demand. It’s an elastic product, especially on the consumer side. However, it’s also capped in terms of upside because those stocks are there. The liquid equivalent, cream, if you would buy cream today, you’d make it into butter. You’d be like at €3.30–€3. 40 cost price where the market is trading at €4.20–€4.30. So, there’s like a thousand euro. Ted Jacoby III: So the multiples in cream are low. Martijn Goedhart: It has been like this during our whole down season, which is very atypical. You could [00:20:00] argue that that multiple is only gonna weaken because milk starts flowing. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: The main discussion we have is like, is all that bearishness already priced in? And have we hit the bottom? Have we hit a level at which people are happy to buy? Or is there more to come? Ted Jacoby III: So you guys aren’t really seeing much upward-ness in the butter market in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: No. No. If you look from a, let’s say, traditional supply and demand theory, we have record-high stocks and record-high stocks, they basically kill any prolonged upside to a market, I would say, until you work through it. Ted Jacoby III: What about the cheese market in Europe? Is the cheese market high or low right now? And how’s it acting? Martijn Goedhart: It’s surprisingly tight. You would think that especially over the past few years, quite some capacity has been added to the European landscape. You would reckon that this extra milk would flow into the cheese plants, and you can’t find demand for it, so you’d have to move your cheese, and you’d see supply pressure from producers. But, the opposite is true actually. The cheese that’s supplied is very fresh. Within the range of what you can supply, it’s on the fresher side. That [00:21:00] indicates that there are no older stocks or backlog in terms of supply. I think producers have done a good job in capturing those moments when they were competitive on the world market by getting to make cheese disappear out of Europe. And then the last few weeks there were some production disruptions, some factory outages, and that even caused a bit more tightness in the cheese market. But it has stabilized ever since. It has been stable like butter. We’ve seen the bottom for now, and it went up a bit. The only thing is that in cheese there are no inventories. That makes you think that there’s more upside in cheese when milk growth starts to slow compared to butter because there’s no inventory holding it back. Ted Jacoby III: Why isn’t there any inventory? Was Europe doing some really good exporting for a while? Martijn Goedhart: Yeah, that’s the main reason. Big producers did big sales of gouda at some point or mozz when they were competitive, just to keep that supply chain clean. Butter, you can freeze, carry if the market pays for it. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: Cheese, you can only do it on paper, but not in reality. You need to get rid of it. Ted Jacoby III: Right. Josh White: How far out do we think the [00:22:00] international cheese buyer is covered right now? Because that was a big topic coming into the first quarter is how much of the cheese business, particularly in contestable markets, did Europe win away from the U.S. Ted correct me if I’m wrong, but our exports have been fine, haven’t they? Ted Jacoby III: Our exports have been fine. That’s actually a good way to put it. We experienced a real nice pop in exports last year. I would say this year, second half of Q4 into Q1, we’ve experienced exports that were relatively similar to last year. Maybe a hair behind. And I think we’ll start seeing those numbers soon, but I wouldn’t be surprised that when we finally see January export numbers, we’re down like 5% versus last year, when last year was a really, really, really good number. I’d almost say down 5% is unexpectedly good relative to how good it was last year. Martijn Goedhart: Josh, coming back to your coverage question, I think both our markets have seen massive carries right over the last few months. So, that’s not a very interesting structure for buyers to cover long. Our market was [00:23:00] trading like spot plus two months maximum. And producers would only make big sales if they have the product already, if they feel it already a little. So, I would suggest that cheese buyers in Europe, as well as around the world, are relatively shortly covered, just the same as with nonfat. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Yeah, I see the same in my export markets where basically all the inquiries we are getting for cheese, are relatively close to home, so maybe one maximum two months out from a shipment perspective. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Josh White: So, Ted, are you interpreting this though, that the pressure’s gonna be on more so in the U.S. to win that business going into the second quarter? Based on what you just heard from our European friends? How are you digesting this discussion? Ted Jacoby III: That’s a great question. I would say yes, but price action makes me wonder if the U.S. is trying to price itself out of this market. Martijn Goedhart: Take cheddar for example. EU is about $300 per ton elevated over U.S. So, in certain applications, such as process cheese, I think, by default the U.S., will win that export business. Ted Jacoby III: Even [00:24:00] at current futures prices for April and May of a $1.80? Martijn Goedhart: Little bit of a different story. But that also depends on the outcome of European flush and the effect of that flush on cheddar pricing in Europe. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree with you that about three weeks ago, we were cheaper, but after this rally, I don’t know if that’s still true. Josh White: The point Ted’s driving home right now is the big carry in the Class III cheese markets in the U.S., you’re concern is pricing out the second quarter? Ted Jacoby III: That’s exactly right. I’m concerned we’re in the middle of pricing ourselves out of the market. Josh White: Are we putting ourselves in a spot where we’re the best priced cheese product. We know, out of the U.S., our daily milk volumes are gonna increase. We know that a lot of that milk’s gonna go into cheese. We know that we’re gonna have to compete for cheese business. But even despite the fact that Europe’s relatively balanced, it feels like on cheese, are we putting ourselves in the global market in a position where Europe may win? Martijn Goedhart: It’s gonna be a good fight, Josh. None of the origins can afford to lose a lot of export business over the flush. We need to get those volumes [00:25:00] moving. So, the products where we compete, we will compete. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. And here’s what’s likely to happen. The U.S. having a little bit more mature and developed futures market means that as Europe goes out there and makes sure they get that business, the U.S. at some point will say, rather than going and exporting this cheese, I’m just gonna put it in a warehouse and hedge it out on the futures because there’s a carry in the futures market right now and I can make 10¢ just sitting on it for a month or two. If we are gonna have to go head to head with Europe, to get that export business, we might not get as much as we did last year in the second quarter, because in the second quarter we really did get a lot of that cheese export business. Martijn Goedhart: I agree. Only, to what extent can you actually carry it, physically, without refreshing, Ted? Because in Europe, that’s a bit of an issue. Ted Jacoby III: In the U.S., there’s a number of strategies, a lot of it being rolling your inventory. So, you take your working inventory and you just start rolling it because I don’t think there’s a huge difference between 30-day-old cheddar and 90-day-old cheddar to a lot of people. There are strategies to [00:26:00] manage through higher inventory levels. But at a certain point, even that working inventory carry, it starts to max out the warehouse, start to get full, and then they just gotta sell it. Martijn Goedhart: Right. Ted Jacoby III: What’s interesting is, I think that a lot of people went into 2026 thinking, “We’ve gotta make sure we’ve got a home for this cheese, because there’s a lot more cheese, and the U.S. market demand is not that great. It’s very flat. And so, if we’re gonna make 4% or 5% more cheese, we’re just gonna have to export it.” Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: And so, they weren’t even looking at that equation. But I think what’s happened in the last month with this volatility in the market, it’s gonna have the inverse effect of getting everybody to actually sit on that cheese and keep it at home, and you’d think it would be the opposite, but no, I think we’re gonna end up bringing more cheese home and letting you win some of those battles. Josh White: Ted, can we talk a minute about the milk production outlook in both regions and how that’s shifted a bit over the past month or two? I’ll start within the U.S. We generally believe that the margins have not been squeezed to a point where we’re gonna see a massive [00:27:00] supply response, a negative supply response in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Ted Jacoby III: And the bounce off The bottom, if anything, we may be back into a place where we’re encouraging more production. Josh White: We’ve got some big comparables. There’s maybe some vulnerabilities in the market. We’ve obviously been surprised with disease and other things in the past, so it’s not imminent, of course, but the math says we should expect to continue to have a good amount of milk out of the U.S. going forward. How does that look out of Europe presently? Martijn Goedhart: I would say almost copy paste Josh. Skimmed has bounced back. Butter has stabilized. Cheese has stabilized up to a point where if I look at the valorization of gouda at €3,300/MT you’re well above the 40¢/kg mark, which is basically the pain point for European farmers. And then I’m taking into account sweet whey. Not even WPC, right? So, if you have your WPC return, that’ll add another few cents at least. So yeah, we didn’t go deep enough to encourage any decline in milk production. The big question is how that’s gonna turn out this year: if we see the same curve or more [00:28:00] corrected to normal seasonality. But from a margin perspective, I think, just like Ted said, we bounced off the bottom, and it didn’t hurt enough or long enough for anything structural to change in 2026. Josh White: Hey, Martijn, would you add a little bit of color to what you just mentioned a moment ago? The two flush situation coming from the bluetongue outbreak and issue. Martijn Goedhart: In early 2025 in Europe, there were cases of bluetongue and that spread quite quickly across Western Europe. Spring started, early temperatures went up, and mosquitoes that spread the virus sting cows and then they get infected. It has an effect on calving. A lot of calves are not born in the right way, and also the cows, the output goes down, and it’s harder to get them pregnant. So, some cows, they first have to get over the bluetongue disease before they would start to calve. Some cows would calve late and that means that the milk also starts flowing late. Where you’d typically see a peak, in March, April, and then in eastern Europe, it’s a bit later, but now you’ve seen a similar peak because margins were good, but a longer [00:29:00] plateau at that level as well. Those cows get dried off later as well. So, are they gonna calve later again or is it like maybe some like refreshing of cows in the system, and the new ones will be set up according to the normal season? It’s a big question mark. We don’t know. Even the co-ops are struggling with that. Ted Jacoby III: So, you could have a flush that does not hit the peak it usually does, but it’s just longer. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. If it’s the same as last year, that’s what’s gonna happen. If we somehow move back to a normal seasonal pattern, then you’ll see a higher peak than last year, but a bigger decline in the second half of the year. Josh White: If we’re talking about demand being okay and large amounts of milk in both Europe and the U.S. likely to continue, is there anywhere in the world that is suffering on their milk production? Do any of us have an idea of what’s going on with milk production in China? Martijn Goedhart: I think margins there are low. It’s been flat until now, the output, but it’s hard to get consistent numbers from China. But margins are still very low. So, that would not incentivize [00:30:00] growth. Ted Jacoby III: Milk production in China popped over a two year period, about five, six years ago. Then held steady for a couple of years, then it pulled back. Now, after that pullback, it’s flatlining again. Josh White: What we’re basically concluding from this is that we’re gonna have a lot of milk still, but, with the exception of some risk maybe on the cheese side and maybe in the butter situation in Europe, the rest of the products don’t seem to have concerning inventory levels as of right now. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree. I think there’s enough supply, but there seems to be surprisingly good demand, especially for protein. All right guys, we’re wrapping up here. Lightning round question. Do you think what’s happening in the nonfat market is a result of increased demand or less supply? Josh, you go first. Josh White: I wanna say both. We’re experiencing more demand across the entire curve that is both pulling more nonfat supply and is also pulling away skim solids from the dryer. Ted Jacoby III: Martijn? Martijn Goedhart: I agree with Josh. Some of it is fundamental SMD but a big part of it is demand waiting too long and needing to deliver. Ted Jacoby III: Henk? Henk-Jan Bouwman: yeah, I’m with you [00:31:00] guys. Ted Jacoby III: I do not want a chicken out like you and say both, so I’m trying to decide which one. I think it’s very subtle, but this is actually demand driven more than supply driven. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. All right guys. Thanks for joining us again. We really appreciate all the time that you guys spent tuning in and listening to us. Keep milking those cows, and we’ll keep showing up and telling you what we’re seeing out there. Ted Jacoby III: We’ll be back in two weeks for a market update with the Jacoby team. Looking forward to seeing you then. All right guys. Hey, Martijn. Henk, thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate the conversation. Martijn Goedhart: Thanks guys. Huge pleasure. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Thank you very much. Martijn Goedhart: Cheers.
For years, we've talked about the world order 'shifting.' Changing. The end of the Bretton Woods agreement, But according to legendary investor Ray Dalio, the shift is over. The break is now here.In a massive new piece Dalio just released—following the 2026 Munich Security Conference—he made it official: **The post-1945 world order has broken down.** We have officially entered what he calls "Stage 6' of the Big Cycle."Historically, Stage 6 is the 'War Stage.' It's the period of 'Great Disorder' where rules are replaced by raw power, where debt cycles reach their breaking point, and where the global map is redrawn. We're seeing it in the 'Capital Wars,' the weaponization of the dollar, and the total breakdown of trust in traditional institutions.
Arthur Herman contrasts the Scottish Enlightenment's focus on liberty with the French "general will," arguing that collectivism historically descends into state violence and tyranny. 3.1900 MEXICO
Today we are talking about a policy idea that keeps resurfacing around the world, taxing unrealized gains.If you have ever underwritten a deal, you already know the difference between a gain on paper and cash in the bank. Unrealized gains are accounting gains. They exist because an asset is worth more today than it was yesterday, at least according to some valuation method. But until you sell the asset, refinance it, or otherwise monetize it, that gain is not cash flow. It is potential.In the Netherlands, there is proposed legislation that would tax unrealized capital gains. It is being discussed under the umbrella of reforming “Box 3,” the part of the Dutch personal income tax system that applies to savings and investments. The Dutch lower house adopted a bill on February 12, 2026, often referred to as the Box 3 Actual Return Act, with an intended effective date of January 1, 2028, although the Finance Minister has already indicated amendments may be needed and that Senate approval is uncertain. So why is the Netherlands going down this road? Because their current system has been under pressure for years.Historically, Box 3 taxed investors based on a deemed return, a fictitious assumed rate of return, rather than what someone actually earned. When interest rates were near zero, people with cash savings were taxed as if they were earning healthy investment returns. Courts rejected that approach, and the government has been trying to craft a replacement. In response, a bill was advanced to move from deemed returns to “actual return.” The catch is in how “actual return” is defined. Under the bill the system would tax actual annual returns at a flat rate, and that includes value increases that have not been realized through sale, in other words, unrealized gains. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
Seth and Sean discuss everyone hoping that Jeremiyah Love doesn't end up with the Chiefs, Rueben Bain Jr.'s historically short arms being a story, and how Nick Caserio says he would change one Combine drill if he could.
Episode OverviewDrew Price of Master Class Angling returns to The Articulate Fly fly fishing podcast to deliver a season debrief from Lake Champlain and discuss the release of his debut book, Favorite Flies for Vermont: 50 Essential Patterns from Local Experts (Stackpole Books). For anglers curious about multi-species fly fishing in the Northeast or the fly patterns that actually produce on Vermont's diverse waters, this episode covers both with depth and specificity.The 2025 season on Champlain was defined by record-low water levels — a rarity that revealed structure Drew had never seen and produced drone footage that will inform future guiding. Bowfin fishing was among the best he's seen in years, and November lake trout fishing exceeded expectations, reflecting growing demand for Laker guide trips. Drew brings that same multi-species perspective to the book, which covers 53 patterns ranging from pragmatic brook trout dries and blue-line streamer patterns to bowfin, gar and bass flies — including Drew's own glow-in-the-dark Clouser Minnow variation for lake trout and Chocklett-influenced bowfin patterns he's adapted for Champlain conditions. The conversation also covers the production process in candid detail: Drew's self-directed macro fly photography, his phone-interview approach to wrangling 50-plus tiers across Vermont and the editorial relationship with Jay Nichols at Stackpole. The historical dimension is a highlight — patterns like the Governor Aiken Bucktail, the Spirit of Pittsford Mills and a tribute to the late Rhey Plumley place Vermont's fly fishing culture in a lineage that goes back to Mary Orvis Marbury's early commercial tying work in Manchester.Key TakeawaysHow a record-low water year on Lake Champlain exposed bottom structure and shifted Drew's understanding of fish-holding spots in ways that will pay off for seasons to come.Why Vermont fly tiers skew pragmatic — tying quickly and in volume over aesthetics — and why beat-up flies often outfish perfect ones.How to properly attribute pattern variations to their originators, and why that intellectual honesty matters for the sport's tying culture.When to expect outstanding lake trout fishing on Lake Champlain, with November emerging as a peak window for fly rod Lakers.Why Lake Champlain's combination of world-class bass fishing, exceptional bowfin populations (including multiple IGFA tippet-class records) and 88 resident species makes it an underappreciated destination for fly anglers.How Tom Rosenbauer's CDC Rabbit's Foot Emerger became a standout pattern in the book, and what the story behind its development reveals about matching emerger behavior in the surface film.Techniques & Gear CoveredThe episode touches on a range of techniques tied to Champlain's multi-species fishery rather than a single tactical deep dive. Sight fishing in the shallows — push-pole work targeting bowfin, gar and carp — is central to Drew's guiding approach, and several flies in the book were designed specifically for those conditions. For lake trout, Drew discusses his glow-in-the-dark Clouser Minnow variation, a deep-November pattern that he describes as producing an unmistakable visual trigger as the fly returns to the boat in the dark. Variations on Blane Chocklett's patterns adapted for bowfin fishing also feature in the book, illustrating how Game Changer-platform thinking has crossed over into the warm-water exotic-species world. The book's fly photography (all shot by Drew himself using a macro setup he developed during the writing process) includes both hyper-realistic imitative patterns — like Thomas Ames's emerging caddis, designed to capture a specific stage of insect emergence — and intentionally rough, high-production guide flies built for Vermont's blue-line brook trout water. The trolling application of the Governor Aiken Bucktail for landlocked salmon rounds out the technique coverage, reflecting the lake's migratory salmonid fishery that intensifies in fall.Locations & SpeciesThe episode centers on Lake Champlain and the broader Vermont fly fishing ecosystem, with the lake positioned as a legitimate destination fishery for bass, bowfin, lake trout, pike, gar, carp and landlocked salmon — as well as brown trout and brook trout in the tributary streams. Drew notes that Champlain has ranked among the top five bass lakes in the country according to Bassmaster for three decades, and that it holds records across IGFA tippet classes for bowfin. The book also addresses Vermont's blue-line brook trout fishery, acknowledging the state's honest limitations as a trout destination (no super-consistent hatches, less predictable than Pennsylvania or Colorado tailwaters) while pointing readers to the wild brook trout corridors that define summer fly fishing in Vermont. Historically notable waters referenced include Furnace Brook in Pittsford — President Eisenhower's favorite trout stream — and the Northeast Kingdom, the setting for an archival photo tied to the Governor Aiken Bucktail chapter. November is flagged as a particularly productive window for lake trout on fly, with record-low 2025 water conditions adding context for why structure knowledge carries outsized importance on Champlain.FAQ / Key Questions AnsweredWhat made the 2025 fishing season on Lake Champlain unusual?The lake hit near-record low water levels in 2025, a sharp contrast to the high-water years immediately prior. The low water exposed bottom structure Drew had never seen, allowing him to understand exactly why fish hold in certain locations. Drone footage from the season is now part of his ongoing location research.What types of flies are featured in Favorite Flies for Vermont?The book covers 53 patterns, with roughly 40 trout flies and the remainder targeting warm-water and exotic species including bowfin, gar and bass. Patterns range from simple Tenkara-style CDC dries to hyper-realistic emerger caddis imitations from Thomas Ames. Several historically significant Vermont patterns are included, such as the Governor Aiken Bucktail and the Spirit of Pittsford Mills dry fly, with full attribution and historical context for each.How does Drew Price approach pattern attribution in his book?Drew is deliberate about crediting the originators of any pattern he's adapted, even when his modifications are significant. Variations on Blane Chocklett's warm-water patterns and a riff on Bob Clouser's minnow design for lake trout are both attributed explicitly in the text. He extends the same standard to historical patterns, tracing variations back through the tying lineage rather than presenting adaptations as entirely original work.When is the best time to fish for lake trout on Lake Champlain with a fly?November stands out as the peak window, based on Drew's guide experience. The season saw strong late-year Laker fishing and a notable uptick in guided Laker trip requests, which Drew describes as a welcome surprise. A glow-in-the-dark Clouser Minnow variation is his go-to pattern for night-time and low-light Laker sessions on the lake.Why does Drew Price consider Lake Champlain an underrated fly fishing destination?Champlain holds 88 species, roughly 30 of which are realistic fly rod targets — Drew has personally caught 15 different species in a single day on fly. The lake consistently ranks among the top five bass lakes in the U.S. and has produced IGFA tippet-class records for bowfin across nearly all classes. Despite those credentials, it remains well below the radar of most traveling fly anglers, which Drew is actively trying to change through the book and continued guiding.SponsorsThanks to TroutRoutes for sponsoring this episode. Use ARTFLY20 to get 20% off of your TroutRoutes Pro membership.Related ContentS7, Ep 27 – Master Class Angling: The Art of Fishing Exotic Species with Drew PriceS7, Ep 8 – Fly Tying Mastery: Tim Cammisa's New Book and Euro Nymphing AdventuresS2, Ep 114 – All Things Game Changer with Blane ChocklettConnect with Our GuestFollow Master Class Angling on Instagram.Follow the ShowFollow The Articulate Fly on Facebook,
Aston Villa are third.Six points clear of the Champions League trapdoor and yet it doesn't feel comfortable.This episode digs into the strange duality of Villa's current position. On paper, the table looks strong. After 27 games, Villa sit on 51 points, three clear of Manchester United and six ahead of the Champions League drop line. Historically, that buffer matters.But performances tell a different story. The attack has stalled. The midfield spine is missing. The Molineux record is grim.Kamara, Tielemans and McGinn absent has stripped control from the centre of the pitch. Pau Torres' progressive passing is badly missed. Villa are defensively solid, conceding just five goals in 2026, but they are not imposing themselves. Games are tight, tense and reliant on moments rather than dominance.And now comes Wolves away.Four games without a win at Molineux. The last victory came in lockdown. No witnesses. It barely counts .Wolves may be near the bottom, but they have athletes, a back three Villa struggle against, and nothing to lose. For them, it is a free hit. For Villa, it is a pressure point.Lose, and doubt creeps in fast with Chelsea and Manchester United next. Win, and the fear flips into leverage.Because here is the opportunity: Villa only need to finish above one of Liverpool, Chelsea or United to achieve their objective .That is the equation.Fear factor or opportunity?The next two weeks will decide the narrative of the season.UTVGet a Great NordVPN DealGet a cracking deal on NordVPN with four months FREE & a 30 days money-back guarantee here: nordvpn.com/momsGET AD-FREE SHOWS and JOIN MATCH CLUBGet ad-free shows and extra shows, and join My Old Man Said's 24/7 Villa community, Match Club.For more details and to become a member, click here: Become a MOMS MemberJoin the show's listener facebook group The Mad Few.Credits:David Michael - @myoldmansaid Chris Budd - @BUDD_musicPhillip Shaw - @prsgameMy Old Man Said - https://www.myoldmansaid.comThis Podcast has been created and uploaded by My Old Man Said. The views in this Podcast are not necessarily the views of talkSPORT Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the geopolitical drivers behind the recent spike in oil prices and outlines four Iran scenarios.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist.Today – what's fueling the latest oil market rally.It's Thursday, February 26th, at 3pm in London.What happens when oil prices jump, even though there's no actual shortage of oil? That's the situation we're in right now. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Naturally, markets are paying attention.Over the past week, Brent crude rose about $3 to around $72 per barrel. WTI climbed into the mid-$60s. Shipping costs surged. And traders have started paying a premium for protection against a sudden oil spike – the levels we haven't seen since the early days of the Ukrainian invasion.But here's the key point: there's no clear evidence that global oil supply has tightened. Exports are still flowing. Tankers are still moving. And some near-term indicators of physical tightness have actually softened. When oil is truly scarce, buyers scramble for immediate barrels and short-term prices spike relative to future delivery. Instead, those spreads have narrowed, and physical premiums have eased.This isn't a supply shock. It's a risk premium. In simple terms, investors are buying insurance. So what could happen next? We see four broad scenarios.Before I outline them though, here's something we do not see as a core case: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and another 5 million of refined product moves through that corridor. A sustained shutdown would be enormously disruptive. But we think the probability is very low.Now coming back to our four scenarios. The first is straightforward. A negotiated settlement; conflict is avoided. Iranian exports continue and shipping lanes remain open. In that scenario, what unwinds is the geopolitical risk premium – which we estimate at roughly $7 to $9 per barrel. If that fades, Brent could drift back to the low-to-mid $60s, similar to past episodes where prices spiked on fear and then retraced once supply proves unaffected.Second, we could see short-lived frictions – shipping delays, higher insurance costs, temporary logistical issues. That might remove a few hundred thousand barrels per day for, say, a few weeks.. Prices could briefly spike into the $75–80 range. But balancing forces would kick in relatively quickly. For example, China has been building inventories at a steady pace. At higher prices, that stockbuilding would likely slow, helping offset temporary disruptions. That points to some further upside in prices – but then normalization.The third scenario is more serious, but still contained: localized export losses of perhaps 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day for a month or two. Prices would stay elevated longer, but spare capacity and demand adjustments could eventually stabilize the market.Now our last scenario is the more serious and considers a potential shipping shock. The real risk here isn't wells shutting down – it's shipping disruption. Global trade of crude oil depends on efficient tanker movement. If transit times were extended even modestly, effective shipping capacity could fall sharply, creating what amounts to a temporary tightening of about 2 to 3 million barrels per day – or about 6 percent of global seaborne supply. That is a logistics shock, not a production outage – but it would push prices toward early-2022-type levels, at least briefly.Now let's zoom out. Beyond geopolitics, the fundamentals look weak. OPEC+ supply is rising, and our forecasts show a sizable surplus building in 2026. Even if some of that oil ends up in China's stockpiles, a lot would still likely flow into core OECD inventories. Historically, when the market looks like this, prices tend to fall, not rise.Which brings us back to the central point. Oil isn't rallying because the world has run out of barrels. It's rallying because markets are pricing geopolitical risk. And unless that risk turns into actual, sustained disruption, insurance premiums tend to expire.Thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.This podcast references jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.
On this episode, Travis Chappell is joined by his producer Eric for a live reaction and breakdown of a recent housing policy proposal from Donald Trump aimed at banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes. They react to a viral breakdown from Graham Stephan and unpack what's actually happening beneath the headlines—from inventory shortages and interest rate lock-in to zoning laws and Wall Street narratives. The conversation blends humor, impressions, and real analysis as they explore whether banning big investors would actually make homes more affordable—or accidentally make things worse. On this episode we talk about: Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes Whether Wall Street is really driving up housing prices The difference between mega-corporate landlords and mom-and-pop investors How low interest rates created “locked-in” homeowners and inventory shortages Real solutions for affordability: zoning reform, tax incentives, modular housing, and permitting reform Top 3 Takeaways Institutional investors make up a far smaller percentage of home purchases than most headlines suggest—inventory shortages and policy issues may be the bigger drivers. Historically low interest rates created a lock-in effect, discouraging homeowners from selling and reducing available supply. If we truly want affordable housing, reforming zoning laws, streamlining permits, and incentivizing new construction may be more effective than banning investors. Notable Quotes "It's not just about Wall Street—it's a perfect storm of low rates, zoning issues, and supply shortages." "If you own a piece of the land where you live, you tend to care more about your community." "Money only solves your money problems—but it's easier to solve the rest of your problems with money in the bank." Connect with Travis Chappell: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/travischappell Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/travischappell Other: https://travischappell.com Travis Makes Money is made possible by High Level – the All-In-One Sales & Marketing Platform built for agencies, by an agency. Capture leads, nurture them, and close more deals—all from one powerful platform. Get an extended free trial at gohighlevel.com/travis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ryan Estes sits down with Don Lucoff, founder of DL Media and Artistic Director of the Denver Jazz Fest. Don has spent nearly four decades in jazz as a publicist, producer, and festival programmer, working with legendary artists and labels like Impulse and Blue Note. Now he is helping build a national caliber jazz festival right here in Denver. The State of Jazz Don reflects on how dramatically jazz media coverage has changed. There was a time when major outlets regularly reviewed jazz records and featured artists on national television. Today, most of that coverage has vanished. Yet jazz itself has not disappeared. It continues to shape modern music. Artists like Kendrick Lamar have collaborated with jazz musicians such as Kamasi Washington and Robert Glasper. The influence is everywhere. As Don puts it, jazz can sell everything but itself. It is deeply embedded in popular culture, even if it is no longer center stage in mainstream media. Why Denver Is a Jazz City Denver has a stronger jazz pedigree than many people realize. The Front Range is home to major jazz education programs at the University of Northern Colorado, University of Denver, University of Colorado Boulder, Metropolitan State University of Denver, and Colorado State University. These institutions consistently produce world class players. Historically, Five Points was known as the Harlem of the West, a vital stop for touring jazz musicians crossing the country. Add the Beat Generation passing through town and you have a city that has long been part of America's cultural and musical story. Inside Denver Jazz Fest The Denver Jazz Fest spans 15 venues across Denver and includes performances in Boulder County. It blends national headliners with respected local artists, creating a citywide celebration. This year's lineup includes Pat Metheny, Branford Marsalis, Bob James, and John Beasley. The festival also honors the centenary of Miles Davis and John Coltrane with special tribute performances, including a presentation of A Love Supreme by Denver saxophonist Keith Oxman. The goal is inclusivity and accessibility. Whether you are a lifelong jazz fan or just jazz curious, there is a show for you. Where to Start Listening For new listeners, Don recommends classics from the Blue Note catalog such as Lee Morgan's Search for the New Land, Herbie Hancock's Maiden Voyage, Wayne Shorter's Speak No Evil, and Grant Green's Idle Moments. From Impulse, he points to John Coltrane's Crescent and A Love Supreme, Alice Coltrane's Journey in Satchidananda, and Pharoah Sanders' Thembi. These records are not homework. They are entry points into a vast and vibrant tradition. Final Takeaway Don's career proves one thing. You may not get rich in jazz, but you can build a life around passion, community, and great music. Denver Jazz Fest is more than a series of concerts. It is a statement that this city values artistry, education, and cultural history. Learn more and get tickets at denverjazz.org. See you there.
Infusion services make up a roughly $150 billion market in the U.S., and underpin the financial stability of major service lines, especially oncology. Historically, health systems have enjoyed strong volumes, favorable reimbursement, and access to 340B discounts that keep their infusion business profitable. But rising competition, payer and employer driven site of care shifts, and looming policy changes are putting pressure on what many leaders have relied on as a stable, margin accretive business. In this episode, host Abby Burns sits down with Advisory Board expert Chloe Bakst to break down what's actually happening in the infusion market — and why every health system leader should be paying closer attention. Together, they explore how new competitors are capturing leakage you may not even see, how payers and employers are steering patients away from hospital outpatient departments, and how upcoming 340B reforms and Medicare drug price negotiations could reshape the economics of infusion over the next three years. Chloe also shares the strategies forward thinking systems are using to protect their infusion business and prepare for rapidly emerging headwinds. We're here to help: Webinar | The top trends in today's infusion market Tool | Market Scenario Planner Ready-to-Use Resource | Policy Scenario Impact Calculator Expert Insight | The 3 trends reshaping the specialty drug pipeline today Podcast | 270: Service line snapshot: What every health leader needs to know Webinar | Join Optum Advisory experts at this upcoming webinar to learn how optimizing patient access unlocks the value of digital innovations and drives long-term sustainability. Expert Insight | How data-driven risk reduction protects patients and providers A transcript of this episode as well as more information and resources can be found on RadioAdvisory.advisory.com.
SEE THE BOYS LIVE - https://punchup.live/samtallent Sponsors: HIMS - Support the show & get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care with HIMS @ http://hims.com/CHUBBY Ridge - One thing to pack, five ways to power! Get 10% @ Ridge with code CHUBBY at https://www.Ridge.com/CHUBBY #Ridgepod #sponsored #ad Chubbies - Chubbies is here to help keep you comfy & looking good year-round. Get 20% off with code chubby at https://www.chubbiesshorts.com/chubby #chubbiespod PATREON EPISODES: https://www.Patreon.com/chubbybehemoth This week the boys are all together in Albuquerque. Sam loves city planning now, teaches the fellas about a drinking game he used to play, and has updates about his new roommate. Nathan has been trying a new name for New Mexico, was reminded of the old days post show smokedowns, and doesn't understand having Vh1 but not MTV. 00:00 Poker Coverage 02:26 I Am The Barrel 03:31 He's Been Rotating 05:15 Bunch Of Flips 07:20 Right Next To It 09:21 The Real Wild Card 12:07 Albuquerque Legends 15:07 Here Was The Game 18:15 This One Has Potential 21:35 He Reeks All The Time 23:10 Tent Peg Bundy 24:52 Doing The Peewee 27:53 I Put It In The Dryer 30:51 Snow Poison 32:23 New Addiction 33:49 Delta Is Riding High 36:27 Same Kabuki Theater 39:36 Y2K 41:55 Harry And Tonto 44:04 Doesn't Have The Same Ring To It 45:43 Flashback 47:58 Wasn't Going Down 50:37 Carlos Teaches ABQ Slang 53:37 Feeling A Little Chubbie 57:58 Kinked It 59:29 I Live Next Door 01:02:03 Historically 01:04:30 My God 01:06:56 Always Had Vh1 Nathan Lund and Sam Tallent are Chubby Behemoth MORE WIDE WORLD: @SamTallent Pre-Order Sam's New Book - https://www.amazon.com/dp/0593978897/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3I4LOBQ02YIGW&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.k5eCApJdjwVfn7hSelWi5VdRMlVrzKa4zf68ficcjcg.tZZOiI0nB0n3kkWiGAbidMQy5yUS_MkvmEIaXp-LXjo&dib_tag=se&keywords=sam+tallent+brut&qid=1769522903&sprefix=sam+tallent+,aps,181&sr=8-1&dplnkId=90401c83-a6a0-4ad4-999e-ece570a5d320&nodl=1
9. The Collapse of the US-Canada Friendship The historically strong US-Canada bond fractures under trade disputes and rhetoric, threatening long-term diplomatic and economic relationships. Guest: David Hebert1904 PORT ARTHUR
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