Podcast appearances and mentions of Douglas H Paal

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Best podcasts about Douglas H Paal

Latest podcast episodes about Douglas H Paal

China Daily Podcast
英语新闻丨

China Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2024 2:01


The US government's latest move to slap heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and solar cells, shows protectionism and industrial policy is the new consensus approach to economic challenges, which is an "unfortunate shift" in US policy, a senior economist said on Tuesday.5月14日,一位高级经济学家表示,美国政府对包括电动汽车和太阳能电池在内的中国进口产品征收重关税的最新举措,表明保护主义和产业政策是应对经济挑战的新共识方式,这是美国政策中的一个“不幸转变”。The United States is increasing tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, targeting electric vehicles (EVs), advanced batteries, steel and critical minerals, the White House said on Tuesday.5月14日,白宫表示,美国正在对价值180亿美元的中国进口商品加征关税,目标是电动汽车、先进电池、钢铁和关键矿产。The fresh levies come on top of the already massive tariffs imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, which were introduced during the Trump administration, according to the result of a four-year review of the China Section 301 tariffs, released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on Tuesday.根据美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)5月14日公布的对华301条款关税四年期审查结果,特朗普执政期间已对价值3000多亿美元的中国商品征收了巨额关税,此次新征税是在此基础上增加的。The review was undertaken under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Trump invoked to first launch the China tariffs in 2018.这项审查是根据1974年《贸易法》第301条进行的,特朗普援引该条款于2018年首次启动中国关税。The centerpiece of the new tariffs is a quadrupling of levies on Chinese EVs to 100 percent starting this year, an attempt analysts said would likely result in thwarting the Biden administration's own efforts to fight climate change by speeding up EV adoption.新关税的核心是从今年开始,对中国电动汽车的征税翻了两番,达到100%,分析师表示,这一尝试可能会阻碍拜登政府通过加速采用电动汽车来应对气候变化的努力。Erica York, a senior economist and research director with the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy, said that at present, consumers are not likely to see an immediate increase in costs because Chinese EVs are already locked out of the US market.税收基金会联邦税收政策中心高级经济学家兼研究主任埃里卡·约克(Erica York)表示,目前,消费者不太可能看到成本的立即增加,因为中国电动汽车已经被美国市场拒之门外。"Longer term though, it means American consumers will lack choices, including competitively priced and innovative Chinese EVs and face higher prices for green tech and green energy at home," York told China Daily on Tuesday.5月14日,约克(York)周二告诉《中国日报》:“但从长远来看,这意味着美国消费者将缺乏选择,包括价格合适且有所创新的中国电动汽车,并在国内面临着更高价格的绿色技术和绿色能源。”York's organization has estimated that the current tariffs and retaliation will reduce long-run US output by about 0.25 percent, costing thousands of jobs and reducing incomes.税收基金会联邦税收政策中心估计,目前的关税和报复措施将使美国的长期产出减少约0.25%,导致数千人失业,收入减少。Maintaining the current tariffs, which have been costly to American consumers and the manufacturing sector, and doubling or quadrupling down on the approach, will further increase costs, insulate US businesses from competitive pressures that lead to long-run improvements, and put US manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage abroad, according to York.约克(York)表示,维持目前的关税对美国消费者和制造业来说代价高昂,如果再加倍或翻两番,将进一步增加成本,使美国企业无法承受竞争压力,从而导致长期改善,并使美国制造商在国外处于竞争劣势。"Protectionism and industrial policy are not a recipe for success; instead, policymakers should pursue reforms that encourage investment, innovation and competition," she added.她补充说:“保护主义和产业政策不是成功的秘诀;相反,政策制定者应该推行鼓励投资、创新和竞争的改革。”The tariffs that take effect this year also cover solar cells, syringes, needles, steel and aluminum products, according to a statement from the USTR.根据美国贸易代表办公室的一份声明,今年生效的关税还包括太阳能电池、注射器、针头、钢铁和铝产品。The tariff rate on semiconductors will surge from 25 percent to 50 percent by next year, while levies on Chinese EV batteries and battery parts will more than triple to 25 percent by 2026.到明年,半导体关税将从25%飙升至50%,而到2026年,中国电动汽车电池和电池部件的关税将增加两倍以上,达到25%。Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow and trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, noted that as some tariffs are to be phased in over a couple of years, they won't have an "immediate" effect.华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员兼贸易专家加里·胡夫鲍尔(Gary Hufbauer)指出,由于一些关税将在几年内逐步实施,它们不会产生“立竿见影”的效果。"But for sure they will delay the rate of EV adoption and hurt the clean-air agenda," Hufbauer said of Biden's climate agenda, which includes ramping up the adoption of EVs to cut US greenhouse gas emissions.“但肯定的是,他们将推迟电动汽车的采用率,并损害清洁空气议程,”胡夫鲍尔(Hufbauer)谈到拜登的气候议程时说,其中包括增加电动汽车的采用,以减少美国的温室气体排放。The expert said that the tariffs are a "definite negative" for US-China relations.这位专家表示,关税对美中关系“肯定是负面的”。China's Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday that the US tariff hike goes against the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and the promises of President Joe Biden, and will "seriously affect the atmosphere of bilateral cooperation".5月14日,中国商务部表示,美国提高关税违背了两国领导人达成的共识和乔·拜登总统的承诺,并将“严重影响双边合作的氛围”。"I expect China to retaliate in a measured way against iconic US exports," Hufbauer said. "I'm sure Beijing is studying the menu."“我预计中国会对标志性的美国出口产品进行有分寸的报复,”胡夫鲍尔(Hufbauer)说,“我肯定北京正在研究计划。”The Commerce Ministry said China will take "resolute" measures to safeguard its own rights and interests, according to a statement.根据一份声明,商务部表示,中国将采取“坚决”措施维护自身权益。US media reports on Tuesday pointed to the fact that the tariffs in an election year come in the middle of a heated campaign between Biden and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, where they both resort to China-bashing tactics.美国媒体5月14日的报道指出,拜登和他的共和党前任唐纳德-特朗普之间的竞选活动正处于白热化阶段,双方都采取了抨击中国的策略,而在大选年加征关税正是在这种情况下发生的。A new set of polls show that Trump leads Biden in five of six crucial election battleground states, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania.一组新的民调显示,特朗普在六个关键的选举战场州中的五个州领先拜登,即密歇根州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、乔治亚州和宾夕法尼亚州。"The timing is specifically aimed at voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan — auto and steel states," Hufbauer said.胡夫鲍尔(Hufbauer)表示:“这个时机是专门针对宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州和密歇根州——汽车和钢铁州——的选民的。”"Since Trump promises equal or higher tariffs, I doubt the announcement will shift many votes toward Biden, but it may avoid further losses to voters who welcome protection," he added.他补充说:“由于特朗普承诺相同或更高的关税,我猜测这一宣布会将许多选票转向拜登,但它可能会避免欢迎保护的选民遭受进一步损失。”Douglas H. Paal, distinguished fellow of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Tuesday's announcement of fresh tariffs constituted one form of the US response to the "serious trade issues" with China.卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)亚洲项目杰出研究员道格拉斯·帕尔(Douglas H. Paal)表示,5月14日宣布的新关税措施是美国应对与中国之间“严重贸易问题”的一种形式。"When leaders are weak in election years, they resort to popular measures that may be less effective in reality than in rhetoric. That is where we are," Paal told China Daily.帕尔(Paal)告诉《中国日报》:“当领导人在选举年表现不佳时,他们会采取一些受欢迎的措施,这些措施在现实中可能不如在口头上有效。这就是我们的现状。”Trade bodies 'disappointed'贸易机构“失望”Hours after the release of the results of the review of the China Section 301 tariffs, US trade organizations said they were highly disappointed by the outcome.在对华301条款关税审查结果公布数小时后,美国贸易组织表示,他们对这一结果非常失望。"The decision to extend Section 301 tariffs on a wide range of apparel, footwear, accessories, and textiles — while not unexpected — is a real blow to American consumers and manufacturers alike," said Steve Lamar, president and chief executive officer of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.美国服装鞋类协会总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔(Steve Lamar)说:“延长对多种服装、鞋类、配饰和纺织品征收301条款关税的决定尽管并不出人意料,但对美国消费者和制造商来说都是一个真正的打击。”"The Biden Administration has had two years to get it right. Unfortunately, they doubled down on a flawed tariff policy, despite the Biden Administration's own acknowledgment that this policy has failed in its goals, and overwhelming public input that supported a different outcome," he said in a statement.他在声明中说:“拜登政府有两年时间来做好这件事。不幸的是,他们在一项有缺陷的关税政策上加倍下注,尽管拜登政府自己承认这项政策未能实现其目标,并且压倒性的公众投入支持不同的结果。”The National Retail Federation also said it was "extremely disappointed" that the USTR and the Biden administration had chosen "to double down on a failed and inflationary strategy by sustaining and expanding the Section 301 China tariffs".美国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)还表示,它对美国贸易代表办公室和拜登政府选择“通过维持和扩大对华301条款关税,在失败和通胀战略上加倍下注”感到“极其失望”。"Maintaining these tariffs on consumer goods will increase costs that consumers pay on everyday products imported from China,"said David French, executive vice-president of government relations.政府关系执行副总裁大卫·弗伦奇(David French)说,“维持这些消费品关税将增加消费者为从中国进口的日常产品支付的成本。”The US-China Business Council, a nongovernmental organization representing many of the world's largest brands doing business in China, also noted that maintenance of the prior tariffs — with no reductions — and imposition of additional tariffs ultimately make it harder for American companies to compete in the US and abroad, cost American jobs, and increase prices for US manufacturers and consumers during a time of ongoing inflation.代表许多在中国做生意的世界大品牌的非政府组织美中贸易全国委员会也指出,维持以前的关税(没有削减)和征收额外关税最终会使美国公司更难在美国和海外竞争,损失美国的就业机会,并在持续通胀时期提高美国制造商和消费者的价格。"Additionally, levying new tariffs invites retaliation from China, which combined could further disadvantage US companies selling goods and services in China's market compared to their foreign competitors," USCBC President Craig Allen said.美中贸易全国委员主席克雷格·艾伦说(Craig Allen):“此外,征收新关税会招致中国的报复,与外国竞争对手相比,这可能会进一步使在中国市场销售商品和服务的美国公司处于不利地位。”

Deep in the SEA with Mirko Giordani
"On palm oil, EU is wrong and science is on the side of Indonesia and Malaysia" - With Douglas Paal

Deep in the SEA with Mirko Giordani

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2019 21:28


Douglas H. Paal is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International (2006–2008). He was on the National Security Council staffs of Presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush between 1986 and 1993 as director of Asian Affairs and then as senior director and special assistant to the president. According to Mr. Paal, from 1980 until mid-1990, ASEAN countries were more compliant and receptive about human and labor rights records. This has happened because the US, Europe and Japan were the principal trade partners of ASEAN countries and they pretended such high standards. Nowadays China appears to be the dominant actor in the region and Southeast Asian countries have leverage against the western moralistic approach regarding trade deals. However, despite demanding high labor and human rights standard in exchange of trade advantages is not negative at all, in some cases, it can be wrong and even paternalistic: this is the case of palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia, in fact, are de facto blocking the creation of a strategic partnership between ASEAN and EU because the latter is not willing to buy palm oil over unjustified health and environmental issues. According to Paal, on the palm oil issue science is absolutely in the side of Indonesia and Malaysia. Speaking about the American engagement with Southeast Asia, Mr Paal reminded the period between 1980 and late 1990, when American investment bankers and businessmen were flooding in Jakarta, Singapore and Bangkok hotels to finalize important deals. Southeast Asia was considered back then the future of the world economy, until 1997, when the bubble burst. From that point, the US attention shifted to China and only once in a blue moon an American official lands in Southeast Asia, as Mike Pompeo did some weeks ago. On the contrary, EU and single European countries, like Germany, Italy and France, can be better-positioned towards Southeast Asia. However, they lack in strategic approach and their moves seem more tactical and not long-term oriented. In addition, southern countries like Greece, Italy and Spain are getting so much entangled with China and BRI that they need to keep their partnerships with Southeast Asia to a lower level than in the past.

China in the World
U.S.-China Relations Following the Midterms and Ahead of the G20

China in the World

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2018 32:52


Do the U.S. midterm election results have implications for the U.S.-China relationship? In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Douglas H. Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the midterm elections and the status of pressing security issues impacting the bilateral relationship, including Taiwan, North Korea, and the South China Sea.

The World Unpacked
Douglas H. Paal on the Upcoming Meeting Between the U.S. and North Korea

The World Unpacked

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2018 20:18


In the latest episode of DiploPod, Jen Psaki sits down with Douglas Paal to discuss the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. They examine what the North Koreans might want from talks, what expectations and concerns regional actors including China, Japan, and South Korea may have, and how Trump's decision on whether to stick with the Iran nuclear deal could complicate possible diplomacy with Pyongyang. Douglas H. Paal is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was an unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan (2002–2006) and on the National Security Council staffs of presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush between 1986 and 1993 as director of Asian affairs and then as senior director and special assistant to the president. (More on Paal - https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/397)

The World Unpacked
Paal on What a Trump Presidency Means for East Asia

The World Unpacked

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2016 18:38


Donald Trump's call with Taiwan's leader suggests that the U.S.-China relationship might be about to change, a shift that would impact the balance of power throughout the region. As part of our series looking at what a Trump presidency could mean for the world, Carnegie Vice President for Studies for Asia Douglas H. Paal examines what countries in East Asia may want from Trump's administration, and identifies potential sources of friction.

The World Unpacked
Doug Paal and Yukon Huang on G20

The World Unpacked

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2016 12:59


Douglas H. Paal discusses key issues for the 2016 G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China, with Yukon Huang, senior associate in Carnegie's Asia program.

china carnegie g20 summit hangzhou paal yukon huang douglas h paal
Carnegie Endowment Events
China's Economic Rebalance (Full Audio)

Carnegie Endowment Events

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2015 106:59


China’s consumption imbalance bottomed out in 2011 and 2012, at the same time that financially repressed interest rates—the main factor behind both deepening imbalances and capital misallocation—finally reversed. Though China’s economy is rebalancing, some experts argue that Beijing waited too long to begin adjustments; debt levels are high and the economy still requires an unsustainably fast growth in credit to maintain high levels of economic activity. Michael Pettis analyzes the challenges and risks Beijing faces as it continues to implement necessary reforms. Douglas H. Paal moderates.

Carnegie Endowment Events
The Future of U.S.–South Korea Relations

Carnegie Endowment Events

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2015 107:35


Hyun Hong-choo and Choi Young-jin join Evans Revere and Carnegie’s Douglas H. Paal to discuss the U.S.–ROK relationship and what future challenges lie in wait. Han Sung-joo and Ahn Ho-Young give opening remarks.

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Carnegie Endowment Events
Taiwan's Economic Role in the Asia Pacific

Carnegie Endowment Events

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2015 89:35


Taiwan’s economy is at the forefront of the IT revolution, has an important role in the global supply chain, and its leading companies partner successfully with American firms. It is actively extending its economic role in the Asia-Pacific to participate in regional economic integration. Carnegie hosted Taiwan’s former deputy minister of Economic Affairs Francis Kuo-Hsin Liang to present his view on Asian economic integration, business and investment opportunities with Taiwan, and Taiwan’s economic role in the Asia-Pacific region. Former minister of Economic Affairs Steve Ruey-Long Chen and CSIS’ Scott Miller offered comments. Carnegie’s Douglas H. Paal moderated.