Deep in the SEA with Mirko Giordani

The Philippines

Mirko Giordani interviewed Akshobh Giridharadas on the threats on India posed by the Talibans.

There is blood, too much blood, in the streets of Myanmar. A crisis like the one in Myanmar will eventually affect Southeast Asia’s democracies and ASEAN’s stability unless regional members mediate.

After five years of apparent democracy, Myanmar has just gone backwards in only one day. We have tried to understand how the country, under the rule of Aung San Suu Kyi, has arrived at that point and how will be in the future, with the help of Moe Thuzar, fellow at the ISEAS in Singapore.

Paul Podolsky, a former Senior Portfolio Strategist at Bridgewater Associates, has helped us to understand why it is better off to have a financial foot into Southeast Asia.

American politics is dominating the news today, but the future will be more and more Asian. Here we anticipate times, and it seems to us quite legit to understand why the Indian colossus hasn't joined the most significant free trade agreement in the world, the RCEP. Akshobh Giridharadas has one idea or two about it and he has explained to us in a fantastic podcast.

The EU is definitely the most reliable partner for ASEAN - With Ambassador Driesmans by Mirko Giordani

Italy is in delay, but it is catching up in its relationship with ASEAN - With Valerio Bordonaro by Mirko Giordani

As the only Italian and European podcast that deals with SEA and India, I am proud to host Lorenzo Galanti, Ambassador of Italy to Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. We have discussed on the importance for Italy, but in general for the Western world, to acknowledge the fundamental strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region.

In the post-pandemic world, the attention towards a fair and green transition will grow. ASEAN countries have lifted millions of people out of poverty thanks to cheap energy from coal and oil. The coal trade is rejuvenating, and new refineries are being built in the region. However, Southeast Asia will go green in the future. However, Septia Buntara Supendi, an energy expert, told Deep in the SEA a harsh reality: in the least developed countries in the region, the first and foremost need is to have cheap and reliable electricity. The only way to produce it is from fossil fuels. Full stop. If the West is rushing for the Green Deal, over SEA the situation is slightly different, and only a massive use of geotermal and hydropower can balance the phasing out of coal and other fossil fuels.

Can renewables power ASEAN economies? - With Randy Giveans by Mirko Giordani

Business as usual between US and China under Biden - With Joshua Kurlantzick by Mirko Giordani

Japan has established itself to be a leading force in Southeast Asia. Although it is not "showing muscles" like China or the US, Japan is fundamental for the region's capacity building and its economic development. Japan offers a less confrontational approach and it represents a suitable "Third Way" vis-a-vis the turf war between the two superpowers.

ASEAN is at the center of the geopolitical feud between the US and China. Little will change under Biden Administration, but in the meanwhile, it has joined the largest trade agreement in the world, the RCEP. How will this influence ASEAN's relationship with China? Will the US catch up with the geopolitical and economic clout the Dragoon is building on Southeast Asia. Carlyle Thayer, a friend and usual guest of Deep in the SEA, has clear ideas about the matter.

Maybe Mark Esper didn't say precisely that ASEAN need to evolve into a Nato-style alliance, but that was the sense practically. However Douglas Paal, a great friend of this podcast, said that only ignorant American policy makers and analysts can believe in such an alliance. When Dulles tried to dictate security policy in the region, he refused to send air conditioning appliances to the US Embassy in Bangkok because he believed that the city was not so hot in the summer. The Americans that believe in a Nato-style alliance in SEA are making the same clumsy mistake of Dulles.

This podcast has risen in popularity when we started to discuss whether or not the Belt & Road projects in SEA were facing a political and social backlashes. We have explored the possibilities that provider of more compliant investments, such as the US, Europe or Japan, could step up and oust China as the principal investor in the region. Together with Claire Chu, a senior analyst of RWR Advisory Group, we have explored further the hurdles, delays and problems which China is currently facing in SEA.

China is a global superpower, but Indonesia is the biggest country in Southeast Asia and the most important economy. Whatever deal China wants to carry on in the region, Indonesia is there and it must be involved in certain ways. Despite Indonesia doesn't have particular clashes over China's 9-dash line, the relationship between the two countries has been tense in the past. The Chinese minority in Indonesia has suffered racism and discrimination. However, the future is out there and together with Dewi Fortuna Anwar - a former advisor to Indonesia's VP - we tried to understand what will be the future outlook of the relationship between the two countries.

Maybe in the past, Southeast Asian countries may have remained neutral between the US and China, but nowadays, according to Grant Newsham, the strategic neutrality may not be enough. In the near future, ASEAN countries must decide where to stand, and must think quick on it.

What will be the consequences of Pompeo's statement on South China Sea?Professor Carlyle Thayer, a good friend of mine, has clear ideas on the issue. Have a listen!

Twenty Indian soldiers died in the heights of the Himalayas in the clashes with PLA troops. The skirmish is getting serious but, according to Akshobh Giridharadas, the risk of a further escalation is unlikely.

Dylan Loh is not going around the issue: ASEAN will remain neutral over Hong Kong. ASEAN countries can't allow - according to Dylan - to side with either China or the USA on Hong Kong. ASEAN - to retain its centrality and strategic strength - must engage with both the superpowers and preserve the balance of power between them.

Is there a parallel between China's assertiveness and military actions in the South China Sea and the recent escalation against India? According to Abhijit Singh - former naval officer and Head of the Maritime Policy Initiative at ORF - China is acting in the Himalayas in the same way as in the South China Sea. It is carrying on minimal tactical shifts on the ground - which usually never trigger a tactical response - but slowly but surely changing the strategic scenario. However, in the Ladakh region, India has tactically responded to the menaces, causing several skirmishes. But what is the rationale behind China's assertiveness? According to Mr Singh, Chinese actions are dictacted by a deep sense of internal weakness, not strength. The CCP has been the target of international scrutiny - especially from the West and particularly the USA - for the COVID-19 epidemic. and this amounted pressure has exploded against India. Like a press ion cooker, the huge pressure on Xi Jinping's shoulders exploded against India.

Indonesia's rate of contagion is surging swiftly. Will it be another Italy of Covid-19?

This is a special episode of Deep in the SEA, covering the geopolitical, economic and political consequences of COVID-19 over SEA and India. This time, Mirko Giordani interviewed several analysts and professors: Carlyle Thayer, Akshobh Giridharadas, Shaanti Shamdasani, Chester Cabalza, Narut Charoensri and Aakash Brahmachari.

COVID-19 has just woken up Southeast Asian countries: over reliance on China is not possible anymore.

Akshobh Giridharadas is a friend of mine, and he is the best source possible about what is happening in India. We have recorded this episode before the COVID-19 global outbreak, but he has done a fantastic overview of pre-corona India's issues: Trump meeting with Modi, the clash with European Union over Jammu Kashmir and the budget law. Have a listen!

Malaysia, without considering the damages of the COVID-19, is coming out of a political turmoil. Mahathir Mohamad has been the long-living kingmaker of Malaysian politics and, after his resignation, Mr Muhyiddin Yassin took his place. However, as I have discussed with Emmanuel, I observe Malaysia from outside and it seems to me it is a declining country surrounded by more dynamic and flexible nations. According to Emmanuel, Malaysia has the potential to blossom again, because it has still good economic infrastructure. However, the demographic dividend is not helping the country. Its salaries remain low, due to the large immigration from low-income Muslim countries. The risk for Malaysia is to remain forever in the low-income trap.

Aakash Brahmachari is an Associate Director at G3, a business intelligence outfit in London. Aakash, as an Indian living in the UK, has the opportunity to look at the Indian affairs with a detached sight. I have asked Aakash about a comparison between India and China and, differently from other Indian professionals and academics I have spoken with, he didn't agree to compare the two Asian giants. As Aakash said, what works in one country doesn't work in the other. China had a spectacular growth thanks to the government, while India has grown despite his bloating bureaucracy and inefficient government. Moreover, the institutions that are supposed to fuel economic growth, like banks, are plagued by corruption. Inefficient corporations backed by politicians received favourable loans from state banks, creating unfair conditions to unleash market forces. This despite Modi's government is perceived as a market-friendly government.

Bala is a Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, he is Malaysian and he works across the entire region. I have discussed with him about the broad and topical point on how the US-China trade war is going to influence Southeast Asian countries. During previous episodes, I have dealt with the issue in a kind of broad term, but with Bala I went in-depth, and we assessed how a small Malaysian island, Penang, is going to thrive thanks to the trade war. Penang has been ruled directly by the British and since it has been a thriving trade hub in the region, surpassed only by Singapore. In the late 70s, thanks to the ability of its Chief Minister, Penang became an educational powerhouse and it started to attract big western tech companies. However, when labor costs rose in Malaysia and China started to open up its economy with Deng Xiaoping, tech conglomerates moved their operations in mainland China. Penang was left in relative decline. However, thanks to the combo of higher labor costs in China and the uncertainties of the trade war, tech companies are now starting to come back to Penang. Companies can find in the island a cluster of exceptional universities, extensive use of the English language, and trained tech managers.

Carlo Fong Luy is a young researcher and he has a lot to share about his country, the Philippines. As you dear listeners may have understood, I have a passion to speak about Rodrigo Duterte and his flamboyant foreign policy. According to Carlo, in order to understand Duterte, we need to depart from a rock-solid assertion: the Philippines’ politics is an oligarchy. Powerful elites control vast swaths of the country and government needs them. A pro-Chinese foreign policy lead Chinese investments that have been beneficial particularly for the elites in Duterte’s circle: Dennis Uy and Lucio Tan.

Richard Heydarian is one of the most authoritative source regarding the Philippines and Rodrigo Duterte. According to Heydarian, in the past Duterte, a local politician in Davao with zero experience in global affairs, has been capable to pragmatically shift Manila’s foreign policy away from an ironclad and rigid alliance with Washington. Duterte, differently from previous leaders, has been acute enough to understand that sometimes the Philippines’ national interests would have been better off by distancing from the US and binding more with Beijing. However, Durerte has swung too much aggressively towards China and he is not appreciating anymore the value of the US deterrence against a more assertive Chinese presence in the South China Sea.The military apparatus, obviously, is not really in tune with Duterte’s pro China stances. According to Heydarian, Duterte and his supporters are overestimating China’s assets and underestimating it’s liabilities: aging population, ecological catastrophe and structural economic slowdown. There will not be a complete collapse, as American scholars predict, but the physics of power and economics are hitting hard on China.

Mekong river is a fundamental water artery in Indochina, but the Chinese dam may reduce the flow of the Mekong, hurting the economies of countries like Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Narut is a Lecturer at the School of International Affairs, Chiang Mai University, and he is highly concerned of the negative social and economic consequences of the Chinese mismanagement of the Mekong over Thailand. The Chinese embassy in Bangkok issued a statement in whicgìh it said that China is doing nothing less than improving the quality of Thai people through that dam. Thai people are still worried but the government doesn't really care, it has never spoken out about the issue.

If Vansh Saluja was quite sure about India’s diplomatic, political and military capabilities in Southeast Asia, Gregory Poling, from the CSIS, is not sure about it. He believes that, on case of an American disengagement from the region, India will be incapable to provide any political or military reach. ASEAN has insistently asked India in the past for a major geopolitical involvement, but it never happened. At most, India will be another middle power in the region.

Vansh Saluja is the co-founder of the Confederation of Young Leaders. He is actively promoting cultural and political exchanges between young Indian activists, policymakers and businessmen with their Chinese counterparts. He is creating bridges between two nations that just two generations ago were on the being of a catastrophic war on the Himalayan heights. However, I had a point for him: what will happen to the Indian foreign policy in case of an American security disengagement from the region, especially from South China Sea and the maritime chokepoints. Vansh l’è answer has been clearcut: despite India’ incomprehensions with some ASEAN countries, especially Malaysia over Jammu Kashmir, India will step up and make its part to guarantee the security of the maritime trade routes.

Kishore Mahbubani is a living legend when we deal with Southeast Asia, India and ASEAN. He is one the brightest mind and I had the honor of having him in my podcast. Kishore Mahbubani is a living legend when we deal with Southeast Asia, India, and ASEAN. He is one the brightest mind, and I had the honor of having him in my podcast. Kishore Mahbubani has been a supporter of a significant role of India in ASEAN, but the issue, according to his judgment, is very delicate. There are problems in the short term and great opportunities in the long term. In the short term, ASEAN got disappointed towards India because it didn’t join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. India is domestically preoccupied with various challenges, and it can’t divert its attention to other goals. However, the history showed us that, until the 18th century, the biggest economies in the world were China and India, and only in the last two centuries the West has taken off the two Asian nations. China has come back very fast, and India will come back slowly but steadily. In 2050, China will be the first economic power, and India will be number two. Professor Mahbubani also speaks about ASEAN and how, routinely, it has been considered as a failing and declining organization. Two years ago, when Indian outperformed China, western media were jubilating. This year, despite ASEAN has slowed a bit, is performing better than India. No western media took note of it. Despite regular ups and downs, ASEAN forward trajectory has not stopped. Professor Mahbubani considers ASEAN as the second most successful international organization in the world while he believes the EU the best one. ASEAN and EU, according to Mahbubani, have a natural partnership. However, there is a caveat: EU must treat ASEAN with respect. The case of the palm oil and the various sanctions EU is targeting ASEAN countries are the brightest examples of a western organization trying to patronize over different political and economic cultures.

Aditya Dave is an Indian expat living and thriving in London. He has no doubts that India will play a future role in the world stage, but only with better and more functioning institutions. China is the present, India will be the future, only at certain conditions. India is a massive market, but currently the economic performances are sluggish. It is facing internal struggles with the Muslim factions in the north of the country, and some Muslim countries, including Malaysia, are backlashing. However, more pragmatic Gulf Countries like Saudi Arabia continue to do business in India despite the recent turmoils. Nevertheless, despite India pride itself on being the biggest democracy in the world, is far away from having effective governance. Indian democracy is still not so inclusive, and this can hamper future economic growth prospects.

As a westerner, I had doubts over the alliance between Jokowi and Subianto. Was it really right, from a point of view where democracy means majority vs minority, that a government represent nearly all the political factions in a country? That was the case when Subianto joined Jokowi in the government. Shoeb Kagda, the founder of the Indonesian Economic Forum, believes that this is just the normality. Indonesian democracy is not interested in neverending ideological battles, but in delivering results for the people. Indonesian leaders can’t afford to lose time, they need to get things done because the country still needs colossal structural reforms, first of all in the job market. Southeast Asia shows that the west, entangled in a parliamentary system that can’t decide on anything, does not have a monopoly of what democracy really means.

During the financial crisis, some banks were “too big to fail”. According to Keith Leong, Indonesia, despite the political turmoils, is “too big to ignore”. The second term of Jokowi, in fact, is not starting positively: a series of unpopular projects of reform, which would endanger civil liberties, led young people on the streets. Despite the chaos, the Indonesian market is so massive that investors and businessmen can’t ignore it. However, civil unrest is not an uncommon feature in Indonesian politics and society. Indonesian political system prefers results over ideology, and it is not unusual that the country is led by a big coalitional government, in which majority and large portions of the minority rule together. For this reason, the opposition is usually tiny and not so effective, so the need for Indonesia to have a strong and fierce independent civil society, ready to occupy street and squares against any government.

Russia will be a key player in Manila’s defense buildup – With Chester Cabalza by Mirko Giordani

Rodrigo Duterte is Machiavellian and believes in a fundamental principle in foreign policy: mind your business and stay out of mine. The dirty war against drug lords is not very popular in the West, but Duterte doesn’t care. If the West is judging him and punish The Philippines, he doesn’t have any problem to bond with Beijing, even if the Philippines’ army doesn’t agree. Lucio Pitlo is not speaking about some general disagreement between the Philippines and the West. During the siege of Marawi, the West didn’t sell weapons and ammunition to Manila over human rights concerns in the drug war. Duterte didn’t have any problems asking weaponry to China and Russia, which diligently fulfill Duterte’s demands. When you have ISIS-backed Islamists attacking a city of your country, who can blame Duterte’s decision to be pragmatic and ask two unusual partners for help?

Rodrigo Duterte is famous for his quite unusual and soft stance towards China. Filipinos, in general, have a deep distrust for China and you maybe believe that they distrust Duterte for his “love affairs” with Beijing. Wrong! Duterte has been enjoying the highest approval rate since the Marcos’ Administration. But what is the state-of-the-art of Manila’s economic dealings with Beijing? The Philippines are, together with Brunei, the South East Asian country, which has had the lowest level of Chinese investment. Differently from countries like Malaysia, where the political backlash against Chinese conditions on lending money, The Philippines never found themselves in that position. The Philippines are in desperate need of foreign investments, and the Chinese capitals are the easiest available on the shelf. Do Europeans and Americans have their share of responsibility for putting The Philippines in the arms and hands of Chinese money? Yes, they have. There is the credence that money from democratic countries can help to democratize authoritarian regimes. Now, Duterte’s regime is not even near to perfect democracy. It is a regime in a fierce war against drug lords and terrorists, striving for a better economy and less poverty. It is what it is, no less and no more. Differently from western money, Chinese money doesn’t look at the human rights record of The Philippines, and they are more than welcomed for this reason.

Shoeb Kagda is the founder of the Indonesian Economic Forum, and knows very well what it Indonesia's long-term challenge: passing from being a lower-income economy to a middle-income economy. The country needs structural reforms, and Jokowi, elected for his second term, pledged for deep structural reforms, especially in the job market. The country, however, not only needs the political will of his leader, it needs capitals to modernize the infrastructures and its digital and telecommunication network. European capitals may play an important role in Indonesia, but there are still some hurdles. In fact, European money and trade deals usually come with ethical and moral standards to be met before the deal is made. Shoeb is right in saying that this is a complete “non-starter”. The palm oil issue is, sadly, the best example of how dysfunctional is the relationship between the EU and Indonesia.

Today let's take a dive and go deep in the SEA. Manu Bhaskaran, CEO of Centennial Asia, today gives us insightful overview of the current hottest topics to follow in Southeast Asia: Mahatir's ups and downs with China, Duterte's appeasement with Beijing, the economic consequences over Vietnam and Singapore of the US-China trade war and Widodo's desperate need to unleash Indonesia's economic capabilities through structural reforms. Have a liste to Manu's opinions!

For this podcast, Thailand is a brand-new argument. I have dealt extensively with Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and India, but today I am metaphorically traveling along the Mekong river, arriving in beautiful Thailand. With Don Patan, which is a security analyst based in Thailand, I have spoken about the Malay insurgency in the south. I was interested to know about the peace talks between the BRN (Barisan Revolusi Nasional), which is the most important insurgent group in the Malay-speaking region, and the Thai Army. According to Don, the Barisan is not the only insurgent faction in the south, but it is the strongest because has real and huge grassroots support base within the Malay population and the madrasas. Furthermore, BRN has strong religious credentials, despite being clearly an ethnonationalist group. Other insurgent factions were cut loose when the funds from Arab states finished back in the 90es, and their leaders live in exile overseas. Don believes that Malay population agrees with the insurgents, but profoundly disagree with the brutality.

A journalist by profession, Akshobh Giridharadas was based out of Singapore as a reporter and producer with Channel News Asia, Singapore covering international business news. He writes on diverse topics such as geopolitics, business, tech and sports. His previous endeavors include working at ESPN STAR and FOX networks. He is a two time TEDx speaker and is a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts specializing in international affairs. With Giridharadas I have spoken extensively about Indian current problems, like education and job creation. However, the focus of our conversation revolved around the Kashmir issue. Does Pakistan have the moral standing to bring the Kashmir issue to the international arena and to criticize India for not respecting human rights? According to Giridharadas, there is no such thing. Pakistan has a very bad record on human rights in Baluchistan and it is a country which is not famous for hosting several minorities, differently from India. Kashmir is and Indian issue, and a Pakistani intervention is not only not respectful of the Indian sovereignty, but also hypocritical.

Douglas H. Paal is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International (2006–2008). He was on the National Security Council staffs of Presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush between 1986 and 1993 as director of Asian Affairs and then as senior director and special assistant to the president. According to Mr. Paal, from 1980 until mid-1990, ASEAN countries were more compliant and receptive about human and labor rights records. This has happened because the US, Europe and Japan were the principal trade partners of ASEAN countries and they pretended such high standards. Nowadays China appears to be the dominant actor in the region and Southeast Asian countries have leverage against the western moralistic approach regarding trade deals. However, despite demanding high labor and human rights standard in exchange of trade advantages is not negative at all, in some cases, it can be wrong and even paternalistic: this is the case of palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia, in fact, are de facto blocking the creation of a strategic partnership between ASEAN and EU because the latter is not willing to buy palm oil over unjustified health and environmental issues. According to Paal, on the palm oil issue science is absolutely in the side of Indonesia and Malaysia. Speaking about the American engagement with Southeast Asia, Mr Paal reminded the period between 1980 and late 1990, when American investment bankers and businessmen were flooding in Jakarta, Singapore and Bangkok hotels to finalize important deals. Southeast Asia was considered back then the future of the world economy, until 1997, when the bubble burst. From that point, the US attention shifted to China and only once in a blue moon an American official lands in Southeast Asia, as Mike Pompeo did some weeks ago. On the contrary, EU and single European countries, like Germany, Italy and France, can be better-positioned towards Southeast Asia. However, they lack in strategic approach and their moves seem more tactical and not long-term oriented. In addition, southern countries like Greece, Italy and Spain are getting so much entangled with China and BRI that they need to keep their partnerships with Southeast Asia to a lower level than in the past.

Countries can’t escape their history, and Vietnam is not an exception. It has a history of having fought wars both with the USA and China, two countries from which it tries to maintain cooperation while preserving strategic independence. Vietnam is a socialist country and, for obvious reasons, enjoys a special political relationship with China. However, members of Vietnamese Politburo, far away from being open supporters of Beijing, they are quite pragmatic. China, despite the tensions over the South China Sea, represents the first trade partner for Vietnam, and hard facts can’t be ignored.

Geography is not an opinion, is a hard fact. NLD, Suu Ky’s party, was the leading opposition party against the military junta and it was very skeptic against China. However, today the Chinese colossus is just at the border and NLD delegations are flying to Communist China.