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Ever since Russia started its war in Ukraine, assessments of its military power have vacillated wildly. First, Russian forces were supposed to overrun Ukraine and crush any resistance in a matter of days. Then, they were thought to be so weak that a Ukrainian counteroffensive or a new capability might cause them to collapse altogether. Now, with the war in its fourth year, and Donald Trump's return to office bringing uncertainty about Western support, it has started to seem once again that time might be on Moscow's side. Dara Massicot argues in Foreign Affairs that none of these images reflects reality. Since the invasion began, Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has been analyzing the state of Russia's military—its failure and its surprising resiliency. But what has struck Massicot more recently, and what she thinks many observers are missing, is the extent to which Russia has managed to learn and adapt—in Ukraine and beyond. She warns in a new piece for Foreign Affairs that “the Russian military will emerge from its invasion with extensive experience and a distinct vision of the future of combat”—experience it is already sharing with China, Iran, and North Korea. The United States and Europe should pay close attention. Because if they do not take it upon themselves to “study Russia's studying,” as Massicot puts it, she worries that they risk not just losing Ukraine but also falling behind in the next global crisis. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
Mark Seddon is joined by the authors of a Palestinian-led initiative which offers an alternative way forward for Gaza to Trump and Netanyahu's proposal. The working paper is titled, “A Palestinian Armistice Plan, Charting a Rights-Based Transition for Palestinian-Israeli Peace.” _______________ Support Palestine Deep Dive: https://www.palestinedeepdive.com/support _______________ Read the paper which was published in June 2025: https://cambridgepeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Palestinian-Armistice-Plan.pdf The paper lays out “a pragmatic, rights-based plan for both a permanent ceasefire in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) and Israel and for the temporary transition period until a just, durable, and comprehensive settlement is reached to end the occupation and resolve all outstanding issues between Palestinians and Israelis.” The paper recommends terms and mechanisms for Palestinian national reconciliation and political renewal to enable effective Palestinian governance, as well as a principled approach for facilitating humanitarian relief, early recovery, and reconstruction in Gaza. Zaha Hassan is a human rights lawyer and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr. Jamal Nusseibeh is a former Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and co-author of the Palestinian Armistice. Dr. Wesam Amer is a visiting professor and CARA (Council for At-Risk Academics) fellow at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, as well as dean of the Faculty of Communication and Languages at Gaza University in Palestine. Mark Seddon is a former UN Speechwriter for Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Former UN Correspondent for Al Jazeera. He now directs the Centre for UN Studies at the University of Buckingham.
In mid-September, while many China watchers were focused on the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military's annual high-level security and defense convening in Beijing, another major annual meeting was being held by the Ministry of Public Security in the Chinese city of Lianyungang (2-2-3). The Lianyungang Forum dates to 2015 but was upgraded and renamed the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in 2022 following Xi Jinping's launch of the Global Security Initiative. This year it was attended by 2,000 participants from 120 countries, regions and international organizations. The theme was “Shaping Global Public Security Together: United Action to Tackle Diverse Threats.” As Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong made clear in his opening speech, China is advancing an alternative to the western-led security order. Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing's push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT's Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode's discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.” Timestamps: [00:00] Start [02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping's Grand Strategy [05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum [08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain? [12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies? [16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies [21:49] China's Rewriting of Global Norms [28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI
Gavin Wilde, Nonresident Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adjunct lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, and author of the recent paper, “Pyrite or Panic? Deepfakes, Knowledge and the Institutional Backstop,” joins Lawfare's Justin Sherman to discuss worries about deepfakes and their impact on information and society, the history of audiovisual media and what we can learn from previous evolutions in audiovisual technologies, and the role that fakery has played over the centuries in said media. They also discuss the social media and political context surrounding deepfake evolutions circa 2015; what happened, or not, with deepfakes in elections around the globe in 2024; and how institutions, policy, and law might pursue a less technology-centric approach to deepfakes and their information impacts.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Quan hệ giữa Mỹ và Belarus, quốc gia thường được coi là hoàn toàn nằm trong quỹ đạo của điện Kremlin, có một số biến chuyển bất ngờ. Quan sát viên Mỹ được mời dự tập trận Zapad do Nga và Belarus chủ trì. Washington mở lại sứ quán tại Belarus. Trừng phạt với hãng hàng không quốc gia Belarus được dỡ bỏ sau khi Minsk thả hàng chục tù chính trị. Việc Mỹ và Belarus tốc lực bình thường hóa quan hệ có phải là một kịch bản nằm hoàn toàn trong lợi ích của chế độ Putin? Drone Nga xâm nhập lãnh thổ NATO, Mỹ được mời quan sát tập trận Zapad Ngay trước khi cuộc tập trận lớn Zapad 4 năm một lần, đêm 09/09/2025 khoảng 20 drone Nga xâm nhập lãnh thổ Ba Lan, quốc gia sườn đông của khối NATO. Đây là lần thứ 4 trong lịch sử liên minh phòng thủ NATO từ khi thành lập năm 1949, điều 4 Hiến chương của khối được một quốc gia thành viên kích hoạt để tham vấn các đồng minh. Lần đầu tiên chiến đấu cơ NATO được huy động để hủy diệt mục tiêu xâm nhập không phận của một thành viên. Chính trong bối cảnh đó, các quan sát viên quân đội Mỹ đã được mời tham dự cuộc tập trận Zapad vào hai ngày cuối, 15 và 16/09. Trước đó, ngày 11/09, chính quyền Minsk trả tự do cho 52 tù nhân nhiều quốc tịch, trong đó có 14 công dân nước ngoài và nhiều tù nhân chính trị Belarus, gồm cả ông Nikolai Statkevich, ứng cử viên tổng thống Belarus năm 2010 (người đã không chấp nhận đi ra nước ngoài, nên sau đó bị đưa trở lại nhà tù). Tuyên bố trả tự do cho tù nhân nói trên được đưa ra vào lúc luật sư John Coale, đặc sứ của tổng thống Trump, dẫn đầu một phái đoàn Mỹ đến Minsk. Cũng trong dịp này, phía Mỹ thông báo mở lại sứ quán tại Belarus, bị đóng cửa năm 2022 sau khi Nga xâm lược Ukraina, dùng Belarus làm bàn đạp tấn công Ukraina từ phía bắc. Trước đó, quan hệ giữa chính quyền Trump và Belarus đã có một bước tiến đáng kể. Hồi cuối tháng 6/2025, đặc phái viên của tổng thống Mỹ về Ukraina, ông Keith Kellogg, công du Belarus. Đây là cuộc gặp đầu tiên giữa một quan chức cấp cao Nhà Trắng và nhà độc tài Belarus từ 5 năm nay, và chuyến thăm đã « đánh dấu một bước ngoặt lớn » so với chính sách của tổng thống tiền nhiệm Joe Biden. Trong dịp này chế độ Lukashenko đã trả tự do cho 14 tù nhân chính trị Belarus, trong đó có ông Sergei Tikhanovsky, lãnh đạo đối lập, bị bắt giam khi cổ vũ cho phong trào biểu tình phản đối chính quyền trước cuộc bầu cử tổng thống năm 2020. Ông Tikhanovsky là chồng của bà Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, lãnh đạo hiện tại của phong trào đối lập Belarus, tị nạn ở hải ngoại. Đọc thêm : Quốc Hội Belarus « hợp thức hóa » trấn áp phong trào đòi dân chủ Trước khi bay đi Alaska hội kiến với tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin ngày 15/08, ông Trump đã gọi điện cho tổng thống Lukashenko. Sau cuộc điện đàm, ông Trump gọi nhà độc tài Belarus, hiện không được các nước phương Tây công nhận sau cuộc bầu cử bị lên án là gian lận, là « vị tổng thống rất đáng kính », cho biết đã nhận lời mời thăm Belarus và « nóng lòng » gặp mặt đồng nhiệm. Vì sao Trump và chế độ Minsk nhanh chóng xích lại gần nhau ? Điểm chung bề ngoài có thể thấy rõ giữa tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump và nhà độc tài Belarus là hai bên có sự gặp gỡ về quan điểm trong việc ủng hộ việc tìm giải pháp cho việc chấm dứt chiến tranh Ukraina. Hãng thông tấn Nhà nước Belarus Belta, trong một bài viết hồi cuối tháng 8/2025 (« Lukashenko: Trump excelled as a mediator during Alaska talks / Tổng thống Belaurs : Trump là một nhà trung gian tuyệt vời tại cuộc đối thoại Alaska »), cho biết tổng thống Belarus đã ca ngợi lãnh đạo Mỹ, bênh vực cuộc thượng đỉnh Alakska, bị không ít người lên án là đã quá nhân nhượng Putin. Một chuyên gia hàng đầu về Belarus, ông Artyom Shraibman, trong một bài trả lời phỏng vấn, với chủ đề chính « Những gì diễn ra trong lòng Belarus » (What's Going On Inside Belarus), đăng tải cuối tháng 8/2025 trên trang Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, đã ghi nhận các nỗ lực bình thường hóa quan hệ Mỹ - Belarus diễn ra vào thời điểm mà các đàm phán giữa Mỹ và Nga nhằm tìm giải pháp chấm dứt xung đột Ukraina « rõ ràng đang bị đình trệ ». Đọc thêm : Hạn định 50 ngày với Nga và rủi ro bế tắc chính trị cho Donald Trump Tổng thống Trump đã tuyên bố chấm dứt chiến tranh 24 giờ sau khi nhậm chức, rồi sau đó triển hạn thêm 6 tháng. Nửa năm đã trôi qua, cuộc xung đột tiếp diễn. Không có gì cho thấy là Nga từ bỏ các tham vọng tối đa về Ukraina, như chiếm lĩnh nhiều vùng lãnh thổ của Ukraina, đòi Ukraina phi quân sự hóa. Theo chuyên gia Artyom Shraibman, trong lúc tổng thống Lukashenko tìm cách thoát thế cô lập, dùng việc trả tự do cho các tù nhân chính trị đổi lại việc dỡ bỏ trừng phạt, và cải thiện quan hệ với Mỹ, ông Trump muốn phá thế bế tắc trong các đàm phán với Nga về chấm dứt chiến tranh Ukraina, thông qua Belarus. Mỹ bình thường hoá quan hệ với Belarus : « Con đường vòng » để Washington bỏ cấm vận Nga ? Việc Mỹ đẩy nhanh việc bình thường hóa quan hệ với Belarus, quốc gia đàn em của Nga, được một số nhà quan sát xem như mang lại nhiều lợi thế cho điện Kremlin. Nhà báo Marie Jégo, của Le Monde, chuyên về Nga, cựu thông tín viên tại Matxcơva, trong bài « Sự nhượng bộ hoàn toàn của Trump đối với Putin », nêu bật : « Về những điều đã xảy ra, cá nhân tôi thấy khá là bất ngờ. Và đây là điều đã không được các chuyên gia và nhà quan sát thực sự chú ý. Đó là vụ xâm nhập bằng drone của Nga vào bầu trời Ba Lan, và chỉ một ngày sau sự kiện này, nước Mỹ đã cử một đặc phái viên đến Minsk. Mỹ đã đạt được thỏa thuận với nhà độc tài Lukashenko, người được Matxcơva coi là một quân cờ, và chính Belarus là nơi khởi nguồn của cuộc tấn công xâm lược Ukraina của Nga. Và từ Belarus, mà tên lửa đã bắn vào Ukraina. Belarus đã can dự rất nhiều vào cuộc chiến này. Vậy là người Mỹ đã đến đó chỉ một ngày sau sự kiện kinh hoàng drone Nga xâm nhập. Họ đã đến đó. Và đã có một cuộc đàm phán. Ông Lukashenko đã thả 52 tù nhân chính trị. Riêng điều này thì chúng tôi rất vui. Đây là điều tốt. Nhưng mặt khác, chính quyền Mỹ cũng cho biết họ đang dỡ bỏ các trừng phạt, đặc biệt là đối với lĩnh vực hàng không dân dụng của Belarus. Điều đó có nghĩa là Belarus giờ đây sẽ có thể nhận được phụ tùng thay thế từ hãng Boeing của Mỹ. Và nếu như Belarus được như vậy, thì Nga cũng sẽ là nước nhận được. Như vậy, có thể nói, đây là một con đường vòng để dỡ bỏ các trừng phạt Nga. » Đọc thêm : Mỹ « bình thường hóa » quan hệ với Nga: Ác mộng với châu Âu và Ukraina? Trang mạng chuyên về chính trị Quốc tế Politico.eu, có bài ghi nhận về « nguy cơ tan vỡ » của mặt trận Mỹ - Âu trừng phạt Nga. Minsk với thế đi dây một thời giữa nước Nga Putin và châu Âu dân chủ Trước cuộc xâm lăng Ukraina của Nga, kể từ khi lên cầm quyền năm 1994, tổng thống Belarus đã xây dựng chiến lược cân bằng giữa hai đối cực, giữa nước Nga của Putin và châu Âu dân chủ. Chế độ Lukashenko đã lợi dụng vị thế địa-chiến lược đặc biệt nằm ở giữa Liên Âu và Nga để thực thi chính sách « đi dây ». Belarus phụ thuộc vào Nga về năng lượng, quân sự và chính trị, nhưng mặt khác chính sách cởi mở có chọn lọc của quốc gia thành viên Liên Xô cũ này với Liên Âu đã giúp cho Minsk được nhiều lợi thế về kinh tế. Chuyên gia về Belarus, Artyom Shraibman, trên Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, trong bài « Not So Quiet on the Eastern Front: Elements of a Risk Management Strategy Toward Belarus » (Mặt trận phía Đông không quá yên tĩnh: Một số đề xuất về chiến lược quản lý rủi ro đối với Belarus) (6/2025) ghi nhận : « Cho đến năm 2020 (tức trước cuộc bầu cử tổng thống bị lên án là gian lận), ông Lukashenko đã tìm cách duy trì thế cân bằng mong manh của Belarus giữa phương Tây và Nga, đòi phần thưởng từ mỗi bên để đổi lấy việc không xích lại gần bên kia. Chìa khóa cho chiến thuật này là khả năng của Minsk trong việc xử lý mối quan hệ với Nga như một con lắc (pendulum). Sự linh hoạt đó đã đột ngột chấm dứt do mối quan hệ gần như hoàn toàn đổ vỡ với phương Tây sau khi chính quyền Lukashenko đàn áp dữ dội các cuộc biểu tình lớn ở Belarus vào mùa hè năm 2020. Kể từ đó, con lắc Belarus bị kẹt hoàn toàn trong vùng kiểm soát của Nga. » Đọc thêm : Càng bị phương Tây cô lập, Belarus càng lệ thuộc vào người "anh cả" Nga Châu Âu cần ứng xử thế nào với « con lắc Lukashenko » ? Kể từ khi Nga xâm lược Ukraina, « con lắc » Belarus hoàn toàn bị kẹt trong vùng kiểm soát của Nga. Câu hỏi đặt ra là sau các động thái bình thường hóa quan hệ mới đây từ phía Mỹ, liệu chế độ Lukashenko có trở lại với hành xử kiểu « con lắc »? Cho đến nay Liên Âu duy trì chính sách rất cứng rắn với chế độ Minsk, không công nhận Lukashenko là tổng thống Belarus, và coi Belarus là quốc gia đồng lõa với Nga trong cuộc xâm lăng Ukraina. Liên Âu ủng hộ đối lập Belarus lưu vong và có chính sách hậu thuẫn xã hội dân sự Belarus trong tiến trình chuyển tiếp sang chế độ dân chủ, đã bị cuộc đàn áp mùa hè 2020 của chế độ Lukashenko chặn đứng. Hiện tại, hơn 1.200 nhà hoạt động Belarus vẫn bị giam giữ. Đối lập Belarus cảnh báo các nước phương Tây, trước hết là châu Âu, không để Minsk lợi dụng thủ đoạn thả tù nhân nhỏ giọt theo mặc cả với Mỹ, để đánh bóng hình ảnh. Đọc thêm : Tổng thống Belarus Lukashenko "khó xử" vì chiến tranh Ukraina Tuy nhiên, 5 năm sau cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Belarus không được phương Tây công nhận, gần 4 năm kể khi Nga xâm lược Ukraina, quan hệ giữa châu Âu và chế độ Putin ở mức căng thẳng chưa từng có. Belarus không những có thể được Nga dùng làm bàn đạp tấn công Ukraina một lần nữa, mà có thể được dùng để tấn công chính các thành viên NATO châu Âu. Chuyên gia về Belarus, Artyom Shraibman, lưu ý châu Âu cần chủ động xây dựng một chiến lược khéo léo với Minsk, để không bị Mỹ đẩy vào thế bị động trong quan hệ với Belarus (bài « Trump serves Lukashenko a welcome aperitif and pressur on Europe / Trump đãi Lukashenko món khai vị và gây áp lực lên châu Âu », ngày 22/09/2025). Để làm được điều đó, theo vị chuyên gia này, không nên đi theo định kiến cho rằng Belarus hoàn toàn là « tay sai », nhất nhất hành xử theo mệnh lệnh của điện Kremlin. Đọc thêm : Belarus lo chiến tranh hạt nhân, nhưng khẳng định sẽ tiếp nhận vũ khí hạt nhân "chiến lược" Nga Trong vụ drone xâm nhập Ba Lan vừa qua, quân đội Belarus đã báo trước cho phía Ba Lan. Cuộc tập trận Zapad được tổ chức ở miền đông Belarus, cách xa biên giới với Ba Lan. Chế độ Lukashenko không muốn biên giới với Ba Lan đóng cửa làm tê liệt tuyến đường sắt nối liền Trung Quốc – châu Âu thông qua Belarus. Chuyên gia về Belarus nhấn mạnh : châu Âu phải tỏ ra cứng rắn, nhưng cũng cần có những biện pháp tinh tế, khiến chế độ Lukashenko « phải cân nhắc kỹ lưỡng » trước khi quyết định có hành xử theo đòi hỏi của Matxcơva hay không, đặc biệt vào những thời điểm hệ trọng, liên quan đến chiến tranh hay hòa bình.
For a quarter century, Washington policymakers made a strategic bet on India premised on the belief that shared values, shared interests, and a shared strategic convergence in Asia would bind these two countries together as ‘natural allies' in the twenty-first century. All of this optimistic talk came crashing down to Earth a few months ago with the Trump administration's decision to slap 25 percent tariffs on Indian exports. This was exacerbated by a second decision to add an additional 25 percent tariff on India for its import of Russia oil. Taken together, these policy measures plunged U.S.-India relations into their most significant crisis since the late 1990s and the era of U.S. sanctions on India in the wake of the latter's nuclear tests.How did we get here? Where are we now? And where might we be going? These are the questions Milan takes up on this week's show with guest Ashley J. Tellis. Tellis is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is well-known to Grand Tamasha listeners as one of the sanest, wisest voices on South Asia and U.S.-India relations, more specifically. Milan and Ashley discuss the policy of U.S. “strategic altruism” toward India, the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and India, and Modi's recent visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China. Plus, the two discuss the latest turn in U.S.-Pakistan relations and whether the thaw in China-India relations is sustainable. Episode notes:1. Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington's Best Hope in Asia,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 5 (September/October 2019): 173-183.2. Ashley J. Tellis, “India's Great-Power Delusions: How New Delhi's Grand Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 4 (July/August 2025): 52-67.3. Lisa Curtis, Dhruva Jaishankar, Nirupama Rao, and Ashley J. Tellis, “What Kind of Great Power Will India Be? Debating New Delhi's Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 5 (September/October 2025): 186-195.4. Ashley J. Tellis, “America's Bad Bet on India: New Delhi Won't Side With Washington Against Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2023.5. Milan Vaishnav, “How India Can Placate America,” Foreign Affairs, July 16, 2025.6. “Trade Wars: Trump Targets India (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, August 12, 2025.7. “What Kind of Great Power Will India Become? (with Ashley J. Tellis),” Grand Tamasha, July 2, 2025.
: Judy Dempsey (OECD Countries and Populism) GUEST NAME: JUDY DEMPSEY, SENIOR SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE IN BERLIN. SUMMARY: Rich OECD nations must spur growth quickly to implement fundamental reforms and counter rising populist parties threatening NATO and domestic security.1850 BRUSSELS
Visit us at Network2020.org. The United States has long been recognized as the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI), a technology transforming trade, foreign policy, and military strategy. China, once seen as years behind, is rapidly closing the gap, most recently with the launch of DeepSeek. With competition heating up in both chip technology and AI innovation, Washington has sought to maintain its edge through export controls and a recently unveiled AI Action Plan. As the world heads into a new technological era, will the U.S. be able to sustain its AI dominance? What advantages might allow Beijing to overtake Washington? And what are the ramifications for the rest of the world, particularly if there's a split into competing AI systems?Join us for a discussion with Janet Egan, Senior Fellow with the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, Owen J. Daniels is the Associate Director of Analysis and an Andrew W. Marshall Fellow at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET); and Sam Winter-Levy, Fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.
Retired US Army Col Jeff McCausland joins Megan Lynch with a look at the new worldwide nuclear threat assessment. It comes from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Nuclear Threat Initiative, and the Harvard Belfer Center.
Charlie Kirk's assassination may be part of a larger “political realignment” in America, that's according to Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leading scholar on political violence. She explains what it is, why it's violent, how it could get worse, and possible paths out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The EU-U.S. trade deal concluded in July and the EU-China summit held the same month highlighted Europe's weakening position on the global chessboard. Rym Momtaz, Rosa Balfour, and Erik Jones unpack why European leaders struggle to play power politics and explore what it will take for the EU to regain strategic agency. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:54] Europe's Summer of Delusion, [00:14:18] Prospects for EU Institutional Reform [00:24:18] Europe's Quest for a Strategic VisionRosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It's Crafting a Plan B,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Sinan Ülgen, November 28, 2024, “Europe's Fledgling Economic Statecraft and the Trump Challenge,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Erik Jones, et al., November 19, 2024, “Geopolitics and Economic Statecraft in the European Union,” Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, July 17, 2025, “Betting on Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, Gideon Rose, June 23, 2025, “Europe's Two-Front War,” Foreign Affairs.Erik Jones, November 6, 2024, “How Draghi and Letta May Help in Dealing With Trump,” Encompass.Rym Momtaz et al., August 28, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: With Trump, Has Europe Capitulated?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, August 26, 2025, “Europe's Summer of Trump Delusion,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz et al., July 24, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Does the EU-China Summit Show a Weakened European Hand with Beijing?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, July 15, 2025, “Europe's Claim to Geopolitical Power Isn't Passing the Trump Test,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
PREVIEW. HEADLINE: Populist AfD Triples Vote in German State Election Amidst Anti-Migration Sentiment GUEST AND TITLE: John Batchelor, Host; Judy Dempsey, Colleague for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace SUMMARY: John Batchelor and Judy Dempsey discuss the critical German state election in North Rhine-Westphalia, where the populist AfD party tripled its vote, sparking national trend concerns. Dempsey explains that anti-immigration is a "big big issue" for AfD supporters. She notes the large, integrated Turkish population, brought in the 1950s-60s to aid Germany's economic miracle, is disliked by the AfD, leading to attacks on immigrant communities. This electoral shift highlights growing societal divisions driven by migration. 1794
On today's Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomic Aeronautical Systems, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss details of Russia's drone attacks on Poland, Romania and Moldova — the first and largest such attack against the alliance; how the alliance can respond given President Trump's conditioning of US support on all alliance members agreeing to halting energy purchases from Russia and imposing penalties on China; the changing nature of Russia's ever larger attacks on Ukraine; the joint Russian-Belorussian Zapad 2025 exercises and how Moscow and Minsk are working to improve capabilities; whether the exercise is cover for potential future action against NATO given how Russia used past Zapad exercises to pre-position forces and equipment for the 2022 attack on Ukraine; the implications of US military observers at Zapad; and whether Washington's engagement with Minsk will change Belarus' alignment with Russia.
The leader of the United Arab Emirates visited Doha to express solidarity with Qatar, one day after an unprecedented Israeli attack on the Gulf nation. Israel's airstrikes that targeted Hamas's political leaders reportedly failed to kill them, but rattled the region. Geoff Bennett discussed the regional ramifications with Marwan Muasher of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
The leader of the United Arab Emirates visited Doha to express solidarity with Qatar, one day after an unprecedented Israeli attack on the Gulf nation. Israel's airstrikes that targeted Hamas's political leaders reportedly failed to kill them, but rattled the region. Geoff Bennett discussed the regional ramifications with Marwan Muasher of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions. How does the United States advance its national interests in the face of these challenges, particularly against the backdrop of bitter divisions and polarization at home? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with William J. Burns, former director of the CIA and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as he looks back on decades of national security challenges and ahead to what defines effective U.S. leadership in such a complex and fast-paced world.
Russia launched the largest air attack of the war so far, damaging a government building for the first time, and killing more Ukrainian civilians. While President Trump says he is now ready to move to a "second phase" of sanctions on Moscow, despite the Kremlin claiming that sanctions could never force them to change course in the war. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins the show to tell us where things stand on the battlefields. Also on today's show: Ivan Briscoe, Senior Director for Policy, International Crisis Group; CNN Jerusalem Correspondent Jeremy Diamond; Stacey Abrams, former Democratic Leader, Georgia House of Representative Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
EU: JUDY DEMPSEY, SENIOR SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE IN BERLIN. Judy Dempsey: Judy Dempsey analyzes Europe's political instability, including a wobbly French government facing a potential no-confidence vote and President Macron's struggles with reforms, while the far-right National Rally prepares for snap elections. Germany's Chancellor Merz also faces domestic opposition to reforms balancing social welfare and defense spending. Dempsey warns about the rise of anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian, Eurosceptic populist parties across Europe, which pose a significant challenge to regional stability and Washington's foreign policy, despite calls for a European-centric military force. 1838 BANK OF ENGLAND
CONTINUED; EU: JUDY DEMPSEY, SENIOR SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE IN BERLIN. Judy Dempsey: Judy Dempsey analyzes Europe's political instability, including a wobbly French government facing a potential no-confidence vote and President Macron's struggles with reforms, while the far-right National Rally prepares for snap elections. Germany's Chancellor Merz also faces domestic opposition to reforms balancing social welfare and defense spending. Dempsey warns about the rise of anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian, Eurosceptic populist parties across Europe, which pose a significant challenge to regional stability and Washington's foreign policy, despite calls for a European-centric military force. 1828 BANK OF ENGLAND
Last Friday, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that President Trump did not have the authority to issue emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), setting up a pivotal Supreme Court battle over the future of the policy tool.Chad Squitieri, professor of law at the Catholic University of America, argues IEEPA's grant to “regulate importation” clearly includes tariffs, while Peter Harrell, nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, counters that Congress never intended such a blank check. Oren moderates their discussion on how the courts will read the statute and what the ruling will mean for the balance of power between Congress and the White House.Further reading:“The President's Authority to Impose Tariffs” by Chad SquitieriAmicus Brief for Congressional Democrats Opposed to IEEPA Tariffs, co-authored by Peter Harrell“Conflating Taxes With Tariffs: Clear Error in the Federal Circuit's Tariff Opinion” by Chad Squitieri
On today's episode, Lawfare's Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina sits down with Eric Ciaramella, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Lawfare Contributing Editor, to discuss the history of American security commitments abroad and how it can help inform the debate around security guarantees for Ukraine.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Berlin: Welfare vs Security. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/welfare-state-not-sustainable-says-154228672.html 1890 SAXONY
CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor Show Schedule 8-26-25 Good evening. The show begins in the markets, watching the US reaction to Fed turmoil. 1870 MANHATTAN First Hour 9:00-9:15 #Markets: Serene waiting for Nvidia. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:15-9:30 #Markets: Disordered cities. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:30-9:45 Gaza: Into evacuated Gaza City. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD 9:45-10:00 Lebanon: Disarming Hezbollah. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD Second Hour 10:00-10:15 #StateThinking: Flotilla off Venezuela. @MaryKissel Former Senior Adviser to the Secretary of State. Executive VP Stephens Inc. 10:15-10:30 #StateThinking: Putin is an existential threat to Ukraine. @MaryKissel Former Senior Adviser to the Secretary of State. Executive VP Stephens Inc. 10:30-10:45 Ukraine: The battlefield. John Hardie, FDD 10:45-11:00 Ukraine: The battlefield. John Hardie, FDD continued Third Hour 11:00-11:15 #LondonCalling: The Triffin Dilemma. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion 11:15-11:30 #LondonCalling: The Cook imbroglio. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion 11:30-11:45 Israel: Gaza City. David Daoud, FDD 11:45-12:00 Israel: Golan Heights. David Daoud, FDD Fourth Hour 12:00-12:15 Lawfare: Lisa Cook, Abrego Garcia, John Bolton. @AndrewCMcCarthy @NRO @ThadMcCotter @TheAmGreatness 12:15-12:30 Lawfare: Lisa Cook, Abrego Garcia, John Bolton. @AndrewCMcCarthy @NRO @ThadMcCotter @TheAmGreatness continued 12:30-12:45 Berlin: Welfare vs Security. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin 12:45-1:00 AM Berlin: Welfare vs Security. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin continued
Berlin: Welfare vs Security. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin CONTINUED https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/welfare-state-not-sustainable-says-154228672.html 1912 BANK RUN BERLIN
This week on the Sinica Podcast, I welcome back Evan Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Evan served for many years as a State Department official, was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and Central Asia among his numerous positions in government, and was instrumental in building the U.S.-India relationship after 2000 — only to watch Trump round on India in recent months, slapping large punitive tariffs on the South Asian giant ostensibly over its purchases of Russian oil. What motivated Trump? And how does this look from New Delhi and from Beijing? Will China capitalize on the strains in the U.S.-Indian relationship? Listen and find out.As this show is news pegged, I decided to release it as soon as I finished the edit, rather than wait for the transcript. I'll update this podcast page when the transcript comes back.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Lawfare Contributor Mykhailo Soldatenko sits down with Michael O'Hanlon, Director of Foreign Policy Research and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, a former Ukrainian Defence Minister, and a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss ways of defending Ukraine from present and future Russian attacks in the absence of NATO membership.Please see the following policy proposals relevant to the discussion: “Defending Ukraine in the Absence of NATO Security Guarantees,” by Paul B. Stares and Michael O'Hanlon“Ukraine's New Theory of Victory Should be Strategic Neutralization,” by Andriy Zagorodnyuk“Exploring Ukraine's Armed Neutrality or Nonalignment: Legal and Policy Considerations,” by Mykhailo SoldatenkoTo receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
On today's Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomic Aeronautical Systems, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss the outlook for peace between Ukraine and Russia in the wake of President Trump's meetings with Vladimir Putin in Alaska and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as allied leaders in Washington; status of the fighting as Russia continues to creep forward; how Ukraine manages to slow Russian advances as well as stop and push back significant incursions; whether the notion of granting Russia's demand for all of Donbas will lead to a lasting peace or merely pave the way for a third Russian attack; and what shape a peacekeeping force might take as the president suggests openness to supporting allied troops in Ukraine as well as US air power as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Kyiv to discuss a peacekeeping role.
Alan Rozenshtein, Research Director at Lawfare, sits down with Sam Winter-Levy, a Fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Janet Egan, a Senior Fellow with the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; and Peter Harrell, a Nonresident Fellow at Carnegie and a former Senior Director for International Economics at the White House National Security Council under President Joe Biden.They discuss the Trump administration's recent decision to allow U.S. companies Nvidia and AMD to export a range of advanced AI semiconductors to China in exchange for a 15% payment to the U.S. government. They talk about the history of the export control regime targeting China's access to AI chips, the strategic risks of allowing China to acquire powerful chips like the Nvidia H20, and the potential harm to the international coalition that has worked to restrict China's access to this technology. They also debate the statutory and constitutional legality of the deal, which appears to function as an export tax, a practice explicitly prohibited by the Constitution.Mentioned in this episode:The Financial Times article breaking the news about the Nvidia dealThe Trump Administration's AI Action PlanFind Scaling Laws on the Lawfare website, and subscribe to never miss an episode.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In this episode Dominic Bowen and Dr. Audrye Wong dive into how Beijing is recalibrating power and influence in a turbulent world. Find out more about China's two-pronged response to US decoupling, sharpened economic coercion and rare-earth export controls, charm offensives across the Global South, Belt and Road's “small yet beautiful” recalibration, BRICS and BRICS Plus positioning, propaganda and strategic narrative, domestic headwinds from slower growth and EV overcapacity, Taiwan deterrence and non-kinetic pressure, multilateral influence and institution-building, technology ties with the Global North amid export controls, shifting perceptions of economic power, and the risks ahead for the international order, and more.Audrye Wong is Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and assistant professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California. Her research covers China's economic statecraft, including a book forthcoming with Oxford University Press, as well as China's foreign influence activities and propaganda campaigns. Her work has been supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation and the U.S. Department of Defense, among others. Audrye received a PhD in Security Studies from Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs, where she was a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow. She has held affiliations with the Wilson Center, Brookings Institution, Harvard's Belfer Center, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you're a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter. The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!
Alan Rozenshtein, research director at Lawfare, sat down with Sam Winter-Levy, a fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Janet Egan, a senior fellow with the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; and Peter Harrell, a nonresident fellow at Carnegie and a former senior director for international economics at the White House National Security Council under President Joe Biden.They discussed the Trump administration's recent decision to allow U.S. companies Nvidia and AMD to export a range of advanced AI semiconductors to China in exchange for a 15% payment to the U.S. government. They talked about the history of the export control regime targeting China's access to AI chips, the strategic risks of allowing China to acquire powerful chips like the Nvidia H20, and the potential harm to the international coalition that has worked to restrict China's access to this technology. They also debated the statutory and constitutional legality of the deal, which appears to function as an export tax, a practice explicitly prohibited by the Constitution.Mentioned in this episode:The Financial Times article breaking the news about the Nvidia dealThe Trump Administration's AI Action Plan Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
On today's Look Ahead program, sponsored by HII, joining Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian are Dr Eugene Rumer of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss what's next after President Trump aligned with Russia's Vladimir Putin after their summit in Alaska and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders arrive in Washington to discuss ending the war; and Byron Callan of the independent Washington research firm Capital Alpha Partners discusses summit takeaways on defense sentiment; up and downside budget and policy risks for contractors; analysis of the Pentagon's program acquisition costs and budget details released last week; trade and tariffs; and a look at the week ahead.
From August 14, 2024: Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have launched a major incursion into Russia proper, occupying 1,000 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast, which borders Ukraine. The operation, which caught both Russia and the United States by surprise, is the first major Ukrainian offensive in more than a year. In this episode, Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sits down with Lawfare's Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Eric Ciaramella of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss the operation. What do we know amidst the Ukrainian media blackout? What is Ukraine trying to achieve militarily? How will the Kursk operation affect the other fronts in the ongoing war, in which Russia has been on the offensive? And what are the political implications of Ukraine occupying Russian territory?To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
durée : 00:58:56 - Ils ont changé le monde - par : Isabelle Lasserre - Signé en 1953, l'armistice de Panmunjeom met fin à la guerre de Corée sans qu'un véritable accord de paix ne soit jamais conclu entre le Nord et le Sud. À l'heure du profond bouleversement des équilibres internationaux, quel avenir envisager pour les relations entre les deux nations ? - réalisation : Laure-Hélène Planchet - invités : Bruno Tertrais Directeur adjoint de la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique et conseiller géopolitique à l'Institut Montaigne; François Godement Historien et sinologue, conseiller pour l'Asie à l'Institut Montaigne, membre associé du Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
For a recap of the summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Geoff Bennett spoke with Andrew Weiss. He's a former State Department official who served in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations, and is currently serving as vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
In this episode of Occupied Thoughts, former FMEP President Matt Duss speaks with professor & author Brian Barber, who recently published No Way But Forward: Life Stories of Three Families in the Gaza Strip. The book tells the stories of day-t0-day life under decades of military occupation, building on the close relationships Brian built there through many years of academic research. Brian maintains close contact with the families and finishes the book with a section on each family's harrowing efforts to survive the current genocide in Gaza. Brian and Matt discuss the book -- how Brian came to write it, the contents of it, and the challenge of publishing it -- as well as Brian's experience of encountering Palestinian communities, overcoming unconscious biases, and withstanding direct challenges to the legitimacy of Palestinian voices in order to fulfill a promise and share Palestinian stories. Brian K. Barber is Professor Emeritus, University of Tennessee and the author of No Way But Forward: Life Stories of Three Families in the Gaza Strip. He currently lives in Washington, DC. His work has addressed how context—from parenting to political systems—impact individual and social development. Among other books, he is editor of Intrusive Parenting: How Psychological Control Affects Children and Adolescents (2002, American Psychological Association), and Adolescents and War: How Youth Deal with Political Conflict (2008, Oxford University Press). Matthew Duss is Executive Vice-President at the Center for International Policy. Before joining CIP, Duss was a visiting scholar in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. From 2017-22, Duss was foreign policy advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt). From 2014-17, Duss was the president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace. From 2008-14 Duss was a National Security and International Policy analyst at the Center for American Progress. Original music by Jalal Yaquoub.
As violence flares in Gaza and the Middle East teeters on the edge of a wider crisis, The Puck turns to Aaron David Miller — a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; a former State department analyst and negotiator in Republican and Democratic Administrations — for an unflinching look at the road ahead. In this urgent conversation, we explore the hard lessons of history, the role of U.S. leverage, the realities of Israeli and Palestinian leadership, and whether there's any realistic path to a lasting peace after October 7th. A candid, deeply informed discussion that cuts through political soundbites to the heart of one of the world's most intractable conflicts.
SHOW SCHEDULE 8-12-25 THE SHOW BEGINS AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE, WAITING FOR THE SEPTEMBER CUT. 1931 CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor First Hour 9:00-9:15 #Markets: Fed Behind the Curve. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:15-9:30 #Markets: Midsummer and All Well. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:30-9:45 Israel "The Campaign Between the Wars." Jonathan Schanzer 9:45-10:00 Israel "The Campaign Between the Wars." Jonathan Schanzer, FDD continued Second Hour 10:00-10:15 Turkiye: Munitions Lords. Sinan Ciddi, FDD 10:15-10:30 Turkiye: Munitions Lords. Sinan Ciddi, FDD 10:30-10:45 #LondonCalling: BLS Mysteries. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion 10:45-11:00 #LondonCalling: The Cotswolds with the Vances. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion Third Hour 11:00-11:15 Alaska: What Slow Motion or Hasty Peace Costs. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 11:15-11:30 Alaska: What Slow Motion or Hasty Peace Costs. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs continued 11:30-11:45 Alaska: What Slow Motion or Hasty Peace Costs. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs continued 11:45-12:00 King Charles Report: State Dinner POTUS Trump. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs Fourth Hour 12:00-12:15 Oceania: CNMI in Play: The Back Story. Cleo Paskal, FDD 12:15-12:30 Oceania: CNMI in Play: The Back Story. Cleo Paskal, FDD continued 12:30-12:45 EU: Costs of Peace. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin 12:45-1:00 AM EU: Costs of Peace. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin continued
EU: Costs of Peace. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin continued 1870 PARIS
EU: Costs of Peace. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin 1871 PARIS
Abhay shares a compelling discussion with Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They chatted about the intriguing shifts in political allegiances among the Indian Americans, the concept of "Modi Democrats," the broader implications of US- India relations, and the optimism he has for continuing to study the global Indian diaspora. (0:00 - 2:41) Introduction(2:41) Part 1 - questions to ask today as an Indian American, affirming political movements(16:40) Part 2 - reform and faith in institutions, personal journey to pursue scholarship, praise and continued blind spots for the Modi government(36:22) Part 3 - India as a global power, academic roundtables to kitchen tables, optimism (50:07) ConclusionCatch Milan on the Grand Tamasha podcast
Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In today's episode, we cover Trump Targets Crime and Homelessness in DC Following a brutal attack on a former Trump employee in Washington DC, the president will announce sweeping plans to clean up the city. Proposals may include evicting the homeless, involuntary psychiatric commitments, and even federalizing DC's governance. Bryan unpacks the root causes of the capital's lawlessness, from broken families to weak criminal enforcement. Putin-Trump Peace Talks Face Global Pushback The Russian president is set to meet Trump in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the Ukraine war. Putin's demands include control of Donbas and Crimea, but Europe, Zelenskyy, and China all oppose the proposed “Alaska Protocol.” Bryan examines why some say this could be a diplomatic breakthrough, while others see it as a Kremlin ploy. China and India Undercut U.S. Strategy China openly declares it wants Russia to win in Ukraine to keep America distracted. India deepens its ties with Moscow despite new U.S. tariffs, canceling American weapons purchases and strengthening the BRICS alliance. Trump's New “Peace Corridor” Rattles Iran and Russia Last week's U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan creates the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity — a new corridor for oil, gas, and trade running close to Iran's borders. Tehran threatens to turn it into a “graveyard for Trump's mercenaries,” while Moscow warns against foreign meddling. The Great Game for Global Power From Ukraine to the South Caucasus, from India to China's Pacific shores, a new geopolitical contest is underway. Bryan outlines how foreign powers may try to sabotage U.S. influence at home and abroad, including covert propaganda, political funding, and infiltration through the southern border. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32
For perspective on the Israeli government's decision to launch a military takeover in Gaza City, Geoff Bennett spoke with Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former State Department official. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders
Listen to this episode commercial free at https://angryplanetpod.comThe world is living with a Cold War hangover. The logic of deterrence, which dominates the minds of the people who plan nuclear wars, means that America must have enough nuclear weapons to credibly threaten to destroy the world should someone launch nukes at it. That thinking led to a world with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, and that was just when the U.S. had the Soviet Union to think about. Now it's facing the twin threats of Russia and China. Does that mean America needs twice the nukes to handle twice the threats?Some in the Pentagon seem to think so, and the world is embarking on a radical and expensive nuclear build up the likes of which it hasn't seen in a generation.What if there's another way? James Acton is here to pitch us on a world where Optimal Deterrence does not mean spending trillions of dollars on new world-ending weapons just to make sure everyone else doesn't use theirs.Acton is a co-director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program and the author of a new article that outlines the 21st century nuclear arms race and a new plan to stop it.Podcasting from an iPhone in a closetThe apocryphal camera lens storyThe nuclear teaseWhat are nuclear weapons pointed at?How to win a three-way nuclear warThe dread logic of counterforce targetingTrump's nuclear reticenceHow many nukes are there anyway?How to spend a trillion dollars on nuclear weapons upgradesActon's big idea“I don't think we lose much by ceasing to target an adversary's nuclear forces.”“It doesn't matter if they believe it or not.”Optimal DeterrenceRussia's nuclear torpedoCarnegie Endowment for International PeaceSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/warcollege. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Subscribe now for the full episode! Jennifer Kavanaugh, senior fellow & director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join the program to talk about their piece, “The Taiwan Fixation: American Strategy Shouldn't Hinge on an Unwinnable War.” The group delves into the contours of the debate around Taiwan in DC, whether there's any daylight between the two parties, strategic ambiguity and where it stands in Trump 2.0, how a decline in US hegemony in East Asia affects plans for a Taiwan intervention, and what Jennifer and Stephen recommend instead of America's current approach. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Kevin Frazier, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Feeding Frenzy.” The crisis in Gaza has reached a new, desperate stage. Months of a near total blockade on humanitarian assistance has created an imminent risk, if not a reality, of mass starvation among Gazan civilians. And it finally has the world—including President Donald Trump—taking notice and putting pressure on the Israeli government to change tack, including by threatening to recognize a Palestinian state. Now the Israeli government appears to be giving an inch, allowing what experts maintain is the bare minimum level of aid necessary to avoid famine into the country and even pursuing a few (largely symbolic) airlifts, while allowing other states to do the same. But how meaningful is this shift? And what could it mean for the trajectory of the broader conflict?“Hey, It Beats an AI Inaction Plan.” After months of anticipation, the Trump administration finally released its “AI Action Plan” last week. And despite some serious reservations about its handling of “woke AI” and select other culture war issues, the plan has generally been met with cautious optimism. How should we feel about the AI Action Plan? And what does it tell us about the direction AI policy is headed?“Pleas and No Thank You.” Earlier this month, the D.C. Circuit upheld then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's decision to nullify plea deals that several of the surviving 9/11 perpetrators had struck with those prosecuting them in the military commissions. How persuasive is the court's argument? And what does the decision mean for the future of the tribunals?In object lessons, Kevin highlighted a fascinating breakthrough from University of Texas engineers who developed over 1,500 AI-designed materials that can make buildings cooler and more energy efficient—an innovation that, coming from Texas, proves that necessity really is the mother of invention. Tyler took us on a wild ride into the world of Professional Bull Riders with a piece from The Baffler exploring the sport's current state and terrifying risks. Scott brought a sobering but essential read from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about how synthetic imagery and disinformation are shaping the Iran-Israel conflict. And Natalie recommended “Drive Your Plow Over the Bones of the Dead,” by Olga Tokarczuk, assuring us it's not nearly as murder-y as it sounds.Note: We will be on vacation next week but look forward to being back on August 13!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Kevin Frazier, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Feeding Frenzy.” The crisis in Gaza has reached a new, desperate stage. Months of a near total blockade on humanitarian assistance has created an imminent risk, if not a reality, of mass starvation among Gazan civilians. And it finally has the world—including President Donald Trump—taking notice and putting pressure on the Israeli government to change tack, including by threatening to recognize a Palestinian state. Now the Israeli government appears to be giving an inch, allowing what experts maintain is the bare minimum level of aid necessary to avoid famine into the country and even pursuing a few (largely symbolic) airlifts, while allowing other states to do the same. But how meaningful is this shift? And what could it mean for the trajectory of the broader conflict?“Hey, It Beats an AI Inaction Plan.” After months of anticipation, the Trump administration finally released its “AI Action Plan” last week. And despite some serious reservations about its handling of “woke AI” and select other culture war issues, the plan has generally been met with cautious optimism. How should we feel about the AI Action Plan? And what does it tell us about the direction AI policy is headed?“Pleas and No Thank You.” Earlier this month, the D.C. Circuit upheld then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's decision to nullify plea deals that several of the surviving 9/11 perpetrators had struck with those prosecuting them in the military commissions. How persuasive is the court's argument? And what does the decision mean for the future of the tribunals?In object lessons, Kevin highlighted a fascinating breakthrough from University of Texas engineers who developed over 1,500 AI-designed materials that can make buildings cooler and more energy efficient—an innovation that, coming from Texas, proves that necessity really is the mother of invention. Tyler took us on a wild ride into the world of Professional Bull Riders with a piece from The Baffler exploring the sport's current state and terrifying risks. Scott brought a sobering but essential read from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about how synthetic imagery and disinformation are shaping the Iran-Israel conflict. And Natalie recommended “Drive Your Plow Over the Bones of the Dead,” by Olga Tokarczuk, assuring us it's not nearly as murder-y as it sounds.Note: We will be on vacation next week but look forward to being back on August 13!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
SHOW SCHEDULE 7-22-25 Good evening. The show begins with the multi-billion dollar renovation at Federal Reserve headquarters... 1914 FED BOARD CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9:00-9:15 #MARKETS: FED MONEY PIT Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:15-9:30 #MARKETS: STAND-UP COMEDY EXIT Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business 9:30-9:45 PAX AMERICANA John Yoo 9:45-10:00 PAX AMERICANA CONTINUED John Yoo SECOND HOUR 10:00-10:15 UKRAINE: EU/NATO JAW JAW Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Berlin 10:15-10:30 TECHNOLOGY SUPREMACY: EU NOT FOR RISK-TAKING Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Berlin 10:30-10:45 SYRIA: DAMASCUS KILLERS Jonathan Schanzer 10:45-11:00 GAZA: SIX MORE MONTHS OF NEGOTIATION Jonathan Schanzer THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:15 BRICS Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 11:15-11:30 WAR: CLICHÉ Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 11:30-11:45 ANTARCTICA TREATY: UNENFORCED Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs 11:45-12:00 KING CHARLES REPORT: SCRUPULOUS GARDENS Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs FOURTH HOUR 12:00-12:15 SOUTH CHINA SEA: PHILIPPINE FAST ATTACK BOATS ON PALAWAN James Fanell, Gordon Chang 12:15-12:30 PRC: COMPROMISING COMMUNICATIONS WORLDWIDE Jack Burnham 12:30-12:45 #LONDONCALLING: FED-MAHAL AND POWELL @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion 12:45-1:00 AM #LONDONCALLING: TAXING THE DEAD @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion
UKRAINE: EU/NATO JAW JAW. JUDY DEMPSEY, SENIOR SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE IN BERLIN. 1897 BRUSSELS
TECHNOLOGY SUPREMACY; EU NOT FOR RISK-TAKING, JUDY DEMPSEY, SENIOR SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE IN BERLIN. 1898 BRUSSELS
SHOW SCHEDULE 7-15-2025 GOOD EVENING: The show begins in the markets, pleased that inflation continues moderating... 1917 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9:00-9:15 #MARKETS: SOCIALISM AND ITS DISCONTENTS - INFLATION ACCEPTABLE. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business. 9:15-9:30 #MARKETS: SOCIALISM AND ITS DISCONTENTS - INFLATION ACCEPTABLE. Liz Peek, The Hill, Fox News and Fox Business, continued. 9:30-9:45 SYRIA: ANARCHY. Jonathan Schanzer. 9:45-10:00 GAZA: QATAR IS THE PROBLEM. Jonathan Schanzer. SECOND HOUR 10:00-10:15 BERLIN: BORIS PISTORIUS DRIVES THE BUS. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin. 10:15-10:30 EU: INVESTING IN EASTERN EUROPE. Judy Dempsey, Senior Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin. 10:30-10:45 #LONDONCALLING: HONG KONG AND THE STABLE CURRENCY SINCE 1983. @JOSEPHSTERNBERG @WSJOPINION. 10:45-11:00 RUSSIA: THE FADING CSTO. Ivana Stradner, FDD. THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:15 AUSTRALIA AND TAIWAN. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs. 11:15-11:30KREMLIN AND TRUMP'S ULTIMATUM. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs. 11:30-11:45 ARMENIA AND THE RISE OF AZERBAIJAN. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs. 11:45-12:00 KING CHARLES REPORT: SWAN UPPING. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs. FOURTH HOUR 12:00-12:15 ROK: ACCOMMODATING THE KIMS AGAIN. David Maxwell. 12:15-12:30 ROK: ACCOMMODATING THE KIMS AGAIN. David Maxwell, continued. 12:30-12:45 SOMALIA: AL SHABAAB ADVANCES. Caleb Weiss, Bill Roggio. 12:45-1:00 AM SOMALILAND: READY TO SECEDE. Caleb Weiss, Bill Roggio.