Importantly, this commentary is not presented as an investment recommendation. The approach described may not be right for everyone. No one watching or listening to this commentary should take our comments as advice specific to or appropriate for their individual situation. Individual circumstances should be taken into consideration when determining a suitable investment approach. All investing carries risk.
Newport Beach, CA
In this podcast, I lament the quick-draw narratives that seem to drive short-term market volatility.
This session, I ponder the motivations of and position our work against the "do this now!" punditry.
In this podcast, I provide some early glimpses of the power of artificial intelligence in practice. I also discuss some concerns I have for the technologies' broader usage in investment management and allow Microsoft's CoPilot to chime in.
Cash holdings may provide comfort, but inflation diminishes the value of uninvested cash over time. Outside of purchase delays and product substitutes, there is little more consumers can do to directly address inflation. Investors, on the other hand, have a range of options to address that potential drag. The greater the expected return of a […]
So long as one did not carry too substantial an amount of interest rate risk in portfolios, markets provided a solid foundation for generally positive returns over the past quarter and year. While fixed income returns have yet to register the now higher yields on offer (recall that yields up = price down in bonds), […]
While it's understandable that investors may get excited about future prospects of new industries and business models, that enthusiasm may need to be tempered when it comes to the associated investment cases. Early investors may see substantial gains from the immense risks they took on when potentially grand success was merely imagined. But even later […]
Over the four-plus decades since Americans last braced against a high-inflation environment, investors have seen interest rates sink to fresh lows and rise to lower peaks with each successive economic cycle. Rates are well off recent depths on account of ongoing efforts to ease upward price pressures, bringing positive and negative impacts along with: Listen […]
In recent months we've sought to highlight the notion that investment markets are forward-looking, meaning that they tend to reflect aggregate investor views as to where global economies and the countries and companies that operate within them are heading, rather than where they've been. But what does that mean, exactly? Another Look at Inflation Where […]
Most years see some manner of substantial decline in stocks, even as most full-year tallies turn out positive. This year has proved an exception to that tendency. Thus far, at least—there's still about a month to go. With stocks well off the trough for the year, but still far from their peak at the start […]
Seems reasonable to expect that corporate earnings are likely to fall on account of inflation-induced weaker profitability and a slowdown in revenue growth. The growth-stall is likely to stem in part from the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame that margin-crushing inflation, as the Fed directly intends to provoke a slowdown in macroeconomic activity, perhaps even […]
Many trends suggest progress has been made against inflation, which remains historically elevated across most of the globe. And though mixed in their estimates for how quickly and to what level inflation will fall, survey- and market-based measures for future inflation reflect expectations for a return to more comfortable levels of price change. While we […]
We were having such a good time, weren't we? After dropping more than 20% from the beginning of the year through mid-June, the market staged a convincing rebound as investors seemingly saw fit to look beyond the complexities of central bank policy, maybe trusting that inflationary forces could be weakened and might otherwise work themselves […]
With savings, every little bit counts. In our view, one should focus on regular contributions to investment portfolios to build an asset base, in turn allowing investment gains to compound over time and further bolster accumulated assets. In addition to the notion that even small amounts of savings, when invested according to a disciplined strategy, […]
Unlike market peaks, when positive sentiment easily supports staying in the game, a market drawdown leads many to question portfolio exposure to equity. Fears of further downside to come not only leave many hesitant to retain an existing strategy; they can push some to throw in the towel altogether. In squishier times like these, when […]
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupendously accommodative, COVID-focused monetary policy, rates have risen from historical depths to put them likely within striking distance of what might be appropriate for […]
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupendously accommodative, COVID-focused monetary policy, rates have risen from historical depths to put them likely within striking distance of what might be appropriate for […]
Given the unpredictability of investment markets and corporate fundamentals, we tend to pay minor heed to generally unreliable guesswork about the future, instead emphasizing the facts of market history. Analyst estimates for corporate earnings provide a fine example of a dataset that one otherwise might think would be usable, driven as it is by crowd-sourced […]
Given the unpredictability of investment markets and corporate fundamentals, we tend to pay minor heed to generally unreliable guesswork about the future, instead emphasizing the facts of market history. Analyst estimates for corporate earnings provide a fine example of a dataset that one otherwise might think would be usable, driven as it is by crowd-sourced […]
The world has been left bereft of “safe” yield for a decade. And over that time, savers have been required to adjust their perspectives regarding what's possible in terms of income generation from a portfolio. That thinking has led many to pursue yield from dividend stocks, rather than bonds, as a means to bolster income. […]
The world has been left bereft of “safe” yield for a decade. And over that time, savers have been required to adjust their perspectives regarding what's possible in terms of income generation from a portfolio. That thinking has led many to pursue yield from dividend stocks, rather than bonds, as a means to bolster income. […]
While it's true that we fancy smaller, less-expensive and more profitable companies, those preferences have not been shared among the bulk of investors over the past decade. With relative performance as testament to that fact, investors have been rather more interested in pulling forward the longer-term potential of growthier names. But history generally has been […]
While it's true that we fancy smaller, less-expensive and more profitable companies, those preferences have not been shared among the bulk of investors over the past decade. With relative performance as testament to that fact, investors have been rather more interested in pulling forward the longer-term potential of growthier names. But history generally has been […]
Fresh variation in the COVID-19 virus spooked investors over the Thanksgiving holiday. Fears of the virus rather quickly gave ways to fears of missing out on further market gains, then turned about again. The u-turns brought these tenets to mind: Even if not presently expressed, investment risk is always present. That is, if for no […]
Fresh variation in the COVID-19 virus spooked investors over the Thanksgiving holiday. Fears of the virus rather quickly gave ways to fears of missing out on further market gains, then turned about again. The u-turns brought these tenets to mind: Even if not presently expressed, investment risk is always present. That is, if for no […]
When something new comes along in Finance, it can be fun to watch market participants line up to present themselves as experts, quick to provide “insight” into what the future will hold. Over the past few weeks, voluminous ink has been spilt over the confluence of rising inflation and nascent digital currencies, both of which […]
When something new comes along in Finance, it can be fun to watch market participants line up to present themselves as experts, quick to provide “insight” into what the future will hold. Over the past few weeks, voluminous ink has been spilt over the confluence of rising inflation and nascent digital currencies, both of which […]
Each spring, we hear echoes of a favorite line among many market watchers: the months of May through October have proved the worst of all in terms of return for U.S. investors, so better to watch out. Perhaps even cut and run. Among other such compartmentalizations of historical returns, the goal presumably is to show […]
Each spring, we hear echoes of a favorite line among many market watchers: the months of May through October have proved the worst of all in terms of return for U.S. investors, so better to watch out. Perhaps even cut and run. Among other such compartmentalizations of historical returns, the goal presumably is to show […]
Financial and social media can leave investors with an overpowering feeling that there's something missing in their portfolios. Our approach seeks in many ways to counter those pressures. And there actually are many oft-championed exposures that we purposely leave out of our portfolios. While the motivations of this approach are many, the primary rationale is […]
Financial and social media can leave investors with an overpowering feeling that there's something missing in their portfolios. Our approach seeks in many ways to counter those pressures. And there actually are many oft-championed exposures that we purposely leave out of our portfolios. While the motivations of this approach are many, the primary rationale is […]
On July 19, late-day headlines spoke of “carnage” during that day's equity market “rout”. “Plunging” indexes prompted scary thoughts of impending market doom. And an evening walk around the neighborhood confirmed the locals heard those scary messages loudly and clearly. In truth, U.S. stock market had dropped only 1.5%. Next day, that same market proceeded […]
On July 19, late-day headlines spoke of “carnage” during that day's equity market “rout”. “Plunging” indexes prompted scary thoughts of impending market doom. And an evening walk around the neighborhood confirmed the locals heard those scary messages loudly and clearly. In truth, U.S. stock market had dropped only 1.5%. Next day, that same market proceeded […]
In our advisory work, we find two perspectives provide the basis for determining a level of exposure to investment risk appropriate for each client: capacity to take on investment risk and willingness to take on that risk. While capacity can be seen as more quantitative in its basis, an assessment of risk tolerance generally is […]
In our advisory work, we find two perspectives provide the basis for determining a level of exposure to investment risk appropriate for each client: capacity to take on investment risk and willingness to take on that risk. While capacity can be seen as more quantitative in its basis, an assessment of risk tolerance generally is […]
The relative performance of our favored equity characteristics have set a few records over the past year, with small-cap and value-oriented stocks having found renewed favor among investors. Perhaps that should not come as a surprise, given the lengthy period of underperformance that both factors had and still have been experiencing. Despite the nearer-term relative […]
The relative performance of our favored equity characteristics have set a few records over the past year, with small-cap and value-oriented stocks having found renewed favor among investors. Perhaps that should not come as a surprise, given the lengthy period of underperformance that both factors had and still have been experiencing. Despite the nearer-term relative […]
We long ago learned that adhering to an existing plan, seeking to make adjustments only where truly necessary, remains the smarter course for achieving investment success. Often, that means retaining an investment strategy when it can feel the most uncomfortable to do so. But while that discomfort might seem unbearable for a time, history shows […]
We long ago learned that adhering to an existing plan, seeking to make adjustments only where truly necessary, remains the smarter course for achieving investment success. Often, that means retaining an investment strategy when it can feel the most uncomfortable to do so. But while that discomfort might seem unbearable for a time, history shows […]
The rule that all investing carries risk applies even to bonds. The negative price impact of rising rates over the past few months proves that case well. Even so, bonds in our view remain a fine compliment to equity exposures for those wishing to dampen overall portfolio volatility. To this day bond price swings remain […]
The rule that all investing carries risk applies even to bonds. The negative price impact of rising rates over the past few months proves that case well. Even so, bonds in our view remain a fine compliment to equity exposures for those wishing to dampen overall portfolio volatility. To this day bond price swings remain […]
Even without the pandemic or the U.S. election, market returns alone would have made 2020 an abnormal year. Adding to their peculiarity, though, was the fact that global equity markets at one point in 2020 had lost a third of their value from a prior peak. The historic drawdown and the ensuring gargantuan rally, all […]
Even without the pandemic or the U.S. election, market returns alone would have made 2020 an abnormal year. Adding to their peculiarity, though, was the fact that global equity markets at one point in 2020 had lost a third of their value from a prior peak. The historic drawdown and the ensuring gargantuan rally, all […]
For a moment, you’d have thought there were no other stocks in the world. Though a handful of names were caught up in what’s proved so far to have been a short-lived frenzy, one dominated headlines. And by dominated, we mean to suggest it seemed there was no other news, as electronic gaming retailer GameStop […]
For a moment, you'd have thought there were no other stocks in the world. Though a handful of names were caught up in what's proved so far to have been a short-lived frenzy, one dominated headlines. And by dominated, we mean to suggest it seemed there was no other news, as electronic gaming retailer GameStop […]
Take out global viral contagion and the U.S. presidential election and we still had a bonkers year from an equity market return standpoint. Fixed income, too, as interest rates fell at one point to forever lows, reflecting grand concern that economies around the world would need tremendous support to weather the activity-destroying effects of the […]
Amidst a year of unprecedented turmoil, the domestic stock market experienced what may in hindsight be considered its requisite volatility. U.S. stocks saw two separate declines of 5 percent or more, and a maximum decline of more than 34 percent from a peak in February to a late-March trough. The market nonetheless turned in a […]
Amidst a year of unprecedented turmoil, the domestic stock market experienced what may in hindsight be considered its requisite volatility. U.S. stocks saw two separate declines of 5 percent or more, and a maximum decline of more than 34 percent from a peak in February to a late-March trough. The market nonetheless turned in a […]
Now that the presidential election has passed, seems investors have turned their collective gaze toward many stocks otherwise forgotten earlier this year. Smaller-capitalization and less-expensive stocks have strongly outperformed over the past few months. While we might not call it the start of a durable trend, we are pleased to see these two groups seemingly […]
Now that the presidential election has passed, seems investors have turned their collective gaze toward many stocks otherwise forgotten earlier this year. Smaller-capitalization and less-expensive stocks have strongly outperformed over the past few months. While we might not call it the start of a durable trend, we are pleased to see these two groups seemingly […]
No, we don't mean the election. We mean the market. Once the presidential election has been resolved, investors tend to shift their focuses to the likely big initiatives the winner will seek to execute as the new term begins. Even the best laid plans run into the realities of governing, though, and earlier investor expectations […]
No, we don’t mean the election. We mean the market. Once the presidential election has been resolved, investors tend to shift their focuses to the likely big initiatives the winner will seek to execute as the new term begins. Even the best laid plans run into the realities of governing, though, and earlier investor expectations […]
© 2020-2025 Ivy Podcast Discovery LLC
