The probability of loss of something of value
POPULARITY
Categories
JC Cassis, David Crabb and Cyndi Freeman share stories at RISK! live shows when they were hosting
Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3405: Craig Stephens breaks down the future costs of college for his three children and how these projections impact his retirement timeline. With detailed modeling, realistic assumptions, and a surprise family update, he explores the financial trade-offs between saving for education and maintaining long-term retirement goals, all while embracing the unpredictability of life. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.retirebeforedad.com/greatest-risk-to-retirement-goal/ Quotes to ponder: "Kids come with a price tag, but ultimately they are priceless." "Estimating the cost of college 15 years out is not an exact science." "Any change to a variable alters the numbers by tens of thousands of dollars." Episode references: The World's Simplest College Cost Calculator: https://www.savingforcollege.com/calculators/worlds-simplest-college-cost-calculator Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this Tuesday edition of the program, Browns DT Shelby Harris joins Beau and Z (12:08) to recap Week 17's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The guys are also joined by former Browns P Dave Zastudil (23:48) to discuss the Risk and Reward plays of the week. You'll also hear the guys' final thoughts on the game on this week's Microsoft Minute (49:20), get One Thought on every Week 17 NFL game (50:44), and get your CFP preview with College Football Nate and Uncle Beau (1:26:22).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As 2025 comes to an end, guest host Dr. Sara Ailshire turns the tables and interviews Dr. Rebecca Dekker about the biggest childbirth trends, lessons, and breakthroughs of 2025, and what exciting changes are coming to EBB in 2026. Together, Sara and Rebecca dive into the shifting landscape of birth: the unprecedented rise in labor inductions, how AI is complicating the search for evidence-based information, changes in doula access and Medicaid coverage, and how politics continues to shape pregnancy and postpartum care. They walk through the most impactful EBB research updates of the year—including new evidence on vitamin K, gestational diabetes testing, induction timing, big babies, and respectful maternity care—and reflect on the episodes that resonated most with our global community. Rebecca also opens up about what she personally learned this year, including how unresolved childhood trauma impacted her own labor years ago, and how that insight is shaping her thinking about the emotional and spiritual dimensions of birth. Plus, Rebecca reveals a major new direction for Evidence Based Birth in 2026 that could transform hospital birth culture around the world and bring evidence-based care to thousands more families. Want to provide input on EBB's new direction? Fill out this survey here! (02:12) The #1 trend of 2025: inductions everywhere (03:50) How AI is reshaping (and complicating) birth information (07:51) Doula coverage, Medicaid changes, and fewer parents seeking childbirth education (11:55) Miscarriage care, politics, and the impact of Dobbs (13:42) Biggest EBB research updates: vitamin K, GDM, and more (21:40) The new Respectful Maternity Care handout (22:21) The new "big baby" trial and why it likely won't shift U.S. practice (25:37) The top five EBB podcast episodes of the year (32:58) Highlights from the 2025 EBB Conference & Summer School (41:22) How trauma shaped Rebecca's own labor (53:50) The big reveal: what's coming for EBB in 2026 Resources Vitamin K Signature Article (Updated 2025): ebbirth.com/vitamink Gestational Diabetes Signature Article (Updated): ebbirth.com/gdm Get the Respectful Maternity Care Free Handout: ebbirth.com/RMC Sign up for the Big Baby Signature Training for Pro Members: ebbirth.com/classes Get the My Doula Visit Workbook: ebbirth.com/doula-workbook/ Referenced EBB Episodes EBB 349 – An L & D Nurse's Advice for Advocating in the Birth Room with Trish Ware the Labor Nurse Mama EBB 357 – Making Decisions about Elective Induction of Labor with Dr. Ann Peralta & Kari Radoff, CNM, from Partner to Decide EBB 377 – Medicaid Coverage for Doula Care with Amy Chen, Senior Attorney at the National Health Law Program EBB 352 – Calming Breathing Techniques for Pregnancy with Dr. Shilpa Babbar, Obstetrician and Maternal Fetal Medicine Specialist EBB 343 – Top Ten Evidence-Based Strategies for Lowering the Risk of Cesarean EBB 347 - Updated Evidence on Vitamin K EBB 350 – Surviving a Long Antepartum Hospital Stay and Preparing for a Scheduled Cesarean with Krista DeYoung, EBB Childbirth Class Graduate EBB 372 – Comfort Measures and a 41-Week Induction with Hopey Fink and Ben Levin, EBB Childbirth Class Graduates EBB Doula Trainer Rewards Lorie Michaels, BirthPro Advanced Doula Training: birthpro.org Lorenda Lewis, Healing with Dignity: healingwithdignity.com Heather McCullough, HMBirth: hmbirth.com Heather Christine Struwe, Community Aware Birthworker: communityawarebirthworker.com Charlotte Shilo-Goudeau, Community Birth Companion: communitybirthcompanion.org Naima Beckles, For Your Birth: foryourbirth.com Leiko Hidaka, Leiko Hidaka: leikohidaka.com Ruth Kraft, Birth Professional International: birthprofessionalinternational.com Jennifer Anderson, Birth Fusion: birthfusion.com Chanté Perryman, Baby Dreams Maternity Concierge: babydreamsmc.com For more information about Evidence Based Birth® and a crash course on evidence based care, visit www.ebbirth.com. Follow us on Instagram and YouTube! Ready to learn more? Grab an EBB Podcast Listening Guide or read Dr. Dekker's book, "Babies Are Not Pizzas: They're Born, Not Delivered!" If you want to get involved at EBB, join our Professional membership (scholarship options available) and get on the wait list for our EBB Instructor program. Find an EBB Instructor here, and click here to learn more about the EBB Childbirth Class.
Did you know that you start losing bone AND muscle mass as soon as the age of thirty? Or that your fingers and toes don't have muscles? Or how women in Scotland are starting to compete in the lighting of Dinnie Stones – which weighs 733 pounds?! These are topics that Chris discussed with Bonnie Tsui, author of the book On Muscle: The Stuff That Moves Us and Why It Matters. They also discuss what strength and weightlifting means in today's society – especially as more women enter the sport. Bonnie and Chris also discuss studying martial arts, playing on sports teams, and the benefits of functional mobility as you age. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
High performers are often seen as the ones you don't have to worry about. But behind consistent output and quiet competence, there can be early signs of burnout and disengagement. In this episode, Melanie Naranjo joins Karina Young to challenge how companies define top talent and why performance without support leads to retention risk. Melanie, Chief People Officer at Ethena, shares a candid perspective on why high performers need more than praise. They need space to grow, permission to speak up, and help rewiring habits that no longer serve them. Together, they explore how over-reliance on top talent can backfire, why traditional engagement strategies often miss the mark, and what managers can do to spot red flags before it's too late. Melanie also offers clear strategies for re-engaging high performers and building a culture where expectations, accountability, and care go hand in hand. For HR leaders working to retain their best people, it's a compelling reminder: performance doesn't mean immunity. It means opportunity. Join us as we discuss: (00:00) Meet HR Superstar: Melanie Naranjo (01:14) The hidden costs of quiet disengagement (03:28) Rethinking what "high performer" really means (06:26) Debunking the myth of passion and performance (10:19) Building flexible perks that actually engage people (12:58) Early signs your top talent is burning out (15:19) Questions managers should ask but usually don't (20:03) How to coach overwhelmed team members (22:30) Why surveys won't help you retain your best people (24:17) High performers suffer when underperformers go unchecked (31:19) Re-engaging talent through targeted development plans (35:25) What to do when a high performer is a jerk (38:23) Questions every manager should ask top talent Resources: For the entire interview, subscribe to HR Superstars on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube, or tune in on our website. Original podcast track produced by Entheo. Listening on a desktop & can't see the links? Just search for HR Superstars in your favorite podcast player. Hear Karina's thoughts on elevating your HR career by following her on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karinayoung11/ Download 15Five's The HR Leader's Guide to Reducing Regrettable Turnover: https://www.15five.com/resources/ebook/guide-to-reducing-regrettable-turnover?hsLang=en?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=Q4_2025_CTA&utm_content=turnover For more on maximizing employee performance, engagement, and retention, click here: https://www.15five.com/demo?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=Q2-Podcast-Ads&utm_content=Schedule-a-demo Melanie Naranjo's LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/melanie-naranjo/
In an era dominated by AI-powered security tools and cloud-native architectures, are traditional Web Application Firewalls still relevant? Join us as we speak with Felipe Zipitria, co-leader of the OWASP Core Rule Set (CRS) project. Felipe has been at the forefront of open-source security, leading the development of one of the world's most widely deployed WAF rule sets, trusted by organizations globally to protect their web applications. Felipe explains why WAFs remain a critical layer in modern defense-in-depth strategies. We'll explore what makes OWASP CRS the go-to choice for security teams, dive into the project's current innovations, and discuss how traditional rule-based security is evolving to work alongside — not against — AI. Segment Resources: github.com/coreruleset/coreruleset coreruleset.org The future of CycloneDX is defined by modularity, API-first design, and deeper contextual insight, enabling transparency that is not just comprehensive, but actionable. At its heart is the Transparency Exchange API, which delivers a normalized, format-agnostic model for sharing SBOMs, attestations, risks, and more across the software supply chain. As genAI transforms every sector of modern business, the security community faces a question: how do we protect systems we can't fully see or understand? In this fireside chat, Aruneesh Salhotra, Project Lead for OWASP AIBOM and Co-Lead of OWASP AI Exchange, discusses two groundbreaking initiatives that are reshaping how organizations approach AI security and supply chain transparency. OWASP AI Exchange has emerged as the go-to single resource for AI security and privacy, providing over 200 pages of practical advice on protecting AI and data-centric systems from threats. Through its official liaison partnership with CEN/CENELEC, the project has contributed 70 pages to ISO/IEC 27090 and 40 pages to the EU AI Act security standard OWASP, achieving OWASP Flagship project status in March 2025. Meanwhile, the OWASP AIBOM Project is establishing a comprehensive framework to provide transparency into how AI models are built, trained, and deployed, extending OWASP's mission of making security visible to the rapidly evolving AI ecosystem. This conversation explores how these complementary initiatives are addressing real-world challenges—from prompt injection and data poisoning to model provenance and supply chain risks—while actively shaping international standards and regulatory frameworks. We'll discuss concrete achievements, lessons learned from global collaboration, and the ambitious roadmap ahead as these projects continue to mature and expand their impact across the AI security landscape. Segment Resources: https://owasp.org/www-project-aibom/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aruneeshsalhotra_owasp-ai-aisecurity-activity-7364649799800766465-DJGM/ https://www.youtube.com/@OWASPAIBOM https://www.youtube.com/@RobvanderVeer-ex3gj https://owaspai.org/ Agentic AI introduces unique and complex security challenges that render traditional risk management frameworks insufficient. In this keynote, Ken Huang, CEO of Distributedapps.ai and a key contributor to AI security standards, outlines a new approach to manage these emerging threats. The session will present a practical strategy that integrates the NIST AI Risk Management Framework with specialized tools to address the full lifecycle of Agentic AI. Segment Resources: aivss.owasp.org https://kenhuangus.substack.com/p/owasp-aivss-the-new-framework-for https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/blog/2025/02/06/agentic-ai-threat-modeling-framework-maestro This interview is sponsored by the OWASP GenAI Security Project. Visit https://securityweekly.com/owaspappsec to watch all of CyberRisk TV's interviews from the OWASP 2025 Global AppSec Conference! Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/asw for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/asw-363
In this Brand Highlight, we talk with Michael Roytman, CTO of Empirical Security, about a problem many security teams quietly struggle with: using general purpose AI tools for decisions that demand precision, forecasting, and accountability.Michael explains why large language models are often misapplied in security programs. LLMs excel at summarization, classification, and pattern extraction, but they are not designed to predict future outcomes like exploitation likelihood or operational risk. Treating them as universal problem solvers creates confidence gaps, not clarity.At Empirical, the focus is on preventative security through purpose built modeling. That means probabilistic forecasting, enterprise specific risk models, and continuous retraining using real telemetry from security operations. Instead of relying on a single model or generic scoring system, Empirical applies ensembles of models tuned to specific tasks, from vulnerability exploitation probability to identifying malicious code patterns.Michael also highlights why retraining matters as much as training. Threat conditions, environments, and attacker behavior change constantly. Models that are not continuously updated lose relevance quickly. Building that feedback loop across hundreds of customers is as much an engineering and operations challenge as it is a data science one.The conversation reinforces a simple but often ignored idea: better security outcomes come from using the right tools for the right questions, not from chasing whatever AI technique happens to be popular. This episode offers a grounded perspective for leaders trying to separate signal from noise in AI driven security decision making.Note: This story contains promotional content. Learn more.GUESTMichael Roytman, CTO of Empirical Security | On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-roytman/RESOURCESLearn more about Empirical Security: https://www.empiricalsecurity.com/LinkedIn Post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bellis_a-lot-of-people-are-talking-about-generative-activity-7394418706388402178-uZjB/Are you interested in telling your story?▶︎ Full Length Brand Story: https://www.studioc60.com/content-creation#full▶︎ Brand Spotlight Story: https://www.studioc60.com/content-creation#spotlight▶︎ Brand Highlight Story: https://www.studioc60.com/content-creation#highlightKeywords: sean martin, michael roytman, ed beis, empirical security, cybersecurity, ai, machinelearning, vulnerability, risk, forecasting, brand story, brand marketing, marketing podcast, brand story podcast, brand spotlight Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Not many of us would accept a job that risked life and limb, but for a brief moment in time, young men did just that - just to carry the mail. It may have only been in operation for 18 months, but the legacy of the Pony Express has lasted generations. A 2,000 mile horseback ride from Missouri to California posed risks of all kinds, but with no telegraph wires or trains connecting the coasts, brave men and their trusty steeds stepped up and battled the elements, warring nations and each other to keep the nation connected. Banff Film Festival Tickets The Pony Express Re-Ride / Letters! For a full list of our sources, visit http://npadpodcast.com/episodes For the latest NPAD updates, group travel details, merch and more, follow us on npadpodcast.com and our socials at: Instagram: @nationalparkafterdark TikTok: @nationalparkafterdark Support the show by becoming an Outsider and receive ad free listening, bonus content and more on Patreon or Apple Podcasts. Want to see our faces? Catch full episodes on our YouTube Page! Thank you to the week's partners! Ka'Chava: Go to https://kachava.com and use code NPAD. New customers get twenty dollars off an order of two bags or more, January 1st through 31st!
Nick breaks down why his calendar can look "full" while the real priority list stays untouched, and how hiring an assistant forced him to protect time instead of feeding distractions. Tyler pushes on the bigger question: are we building systems to grow, or just cramming more into the same day for no payoff. Show Notes: 00:00 Too many balls 03:29 Inbox takeover 08:58 One thing focus 16:47 Busy vs productive 27:35 Precon time sinks 35:23 Buying your way in 44:05 Risk stories 50:33 Simple systems win 1:00:18 AI, but for what 1:06:15 Wrap and tease Video Version:https://youtu.be/6q8j-4Z0fpA Partners: Andersen Windows Buildertrend Harnish Workwear Use code H1025 and get 10% off their H-label gear NAHB International Builders' Show The Modern Craftsman: linktr.ee/moderncraftsmanpodcast Find Our Hosts: Nick Schiffer Tyler Grace Podcast Produced By: Motif Media
While our team is out on winter break, please enjoy this episode of Data Security Decoded from our partners at Rubrik. In this episode of Data Security Decoded, host Caleb Tolin sits down with Hayden Smith, CEO of Hunted Labs, as he breaks down how software supply chain attacks really work, why open source dependencies create unseen exposure, and what modern threat actors are doing to exploit trust at scale. Caleb and Hayden dive deep into real-world attacks, emerging TTPs, AI-powered threat hunting, and what organizations must do today to keep pace. Listeners walk away with a clear picture of the problem—and a practical blueprint for reducing supply chain risk. What You'll Learn How modern attackers infiltrate open source ecosystems through fake accounts and counterfeit package contributions. Why dependency chains dramatically amplify both exposure and attacker leverage. How to use threat intelligence and threat hunting to proactively evaluate upstream packages before adoption. Where AI-powered code analysis is changing the ability to discover hidden vulnerabilities and suspicious patterns. Why dependency pinning, SBOM discipline, and continuous monitoring now define a strong supply chain posture. Episode Highlights 00:00 — Welcome + Why Software Supply Chain Risk Matters 02:00 — Hayden's Non-Cyber Passion + Framing Today's Topic 03:00 — Why Open Source Powers Everything—and Why That Creates Exposure 06:00 — The Real Attack Vector: Contribution as Initial Access 08:00 — Inside the Indonesian “Fake Package” Campaign 10:30 — How to Evaluate Code + Contributor Identity Together 12:00 — Threat Hunting and AI-Enabled Code Interrogation 15:00 — The Challenge of Undisclosed Vulnerabilities in Widely Used Components 16:30 — How Recovery Works When Malware Is Already in Your Stack 19:00 — Continuous Monitoring as the Foundation of Modern Supply Chain Security 22:00 — Pinning, Maintainer Analysis, and Code Interrogation Best Practices 24:00 — Where to Learn More About Hunted Labs Episode Resources Hunted Labs — https://huntedlabs.com Hunted Labs Entercept Hunted Labs “Hunting Ground” research blog Open Source Malware (Paul McCarty) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3404: Craig Stephens reflects on his ambitious plan to retire by age 55, beating his father by one year, and the financial realities that threaten that goal. With his children's college expenses looming in the same year as his intended retirement, he explores the deep impact of generational choices, personal sacrifice, and the ROI of higher education. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.retirebeforedad.com/greatest-risk-to-retirement-goal/ Quotes to ponder: "I reject the notion that because younger generations are statistically more likely to live longer than our parents, we will need to work longer." "More than a decade ago when my Dad retired from his teaching career at age 56, I told him my retirement goal was to beat him and stop working at age 55." "According to a recent study by Alicia H. Munnell at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the average age of retirement for men in the US is 64." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of the Garage Gym Athlete podcast, Jerred and Dave explore the idea of consistently choosing the hard right over the easy wrong across fitness, business, family, and life. Using Dave's story and the philosophy behind Garage Gym Athlete as the backdrop, they discuss why long-term alignment, daily discipline, and values-driven decisions matter more than quick wins or short-term optimization. The conversation reinforces that real progress is built through consistency, self-awareness, and intentional choices made over years, not through hacks or intensity spikes. At its core, the episode challenges listeners to commit to the long game and become the kind of person who shows up—especially when it's harder, not easier. 00:00 Why This Episode Exists: Choosing the Long Game 02:10 Dave's Background and the Foundations of Discipline 05:45 Education vs. Self-Education and Owning Your Growth 09:20 Leaving Comfort: Moves, Risk, and Alignment 13:40 Marriage, Family, and Letting Constraints Sharpen You 18:30 Fitness as Identity, Not a Phase 22:10 Coaching, Craft, and Rejecting Short-Term Fitness Wins 26:15 Why Garage Gym Athlete Is a Long-Term Play 30:05 Community, Consistency, and Doing Life Together 33:45 Choosing the Hard Right Over the Easy Wrong (Final Takeaways)
John Hill was lying in a hospital bed after surviving a massive heart attack when he faced a life-altering choice: give up, or stay and find a higher purpose. Choosing to stay, John walked away from his stable job with only one paycheck left, no safety net, and a yellow legal pad to map out a business idea that experts called "the worst model ever." He set out to clean up a dirty industry by doing the unthinkable—personally guaranteeing the work of contractors to protect homeowners.In this interview, John sits down with Ryan Atkinson to share how he built The Good Contractors List, a company that has backed over $5 billion in work and paid out $127,000 in claims to fix bad jobs. He reveals why the "sell the lead" model is broken and how his unique approach of "giving more than you take" created a community-driven ecosystem that generates revenue without sacrificing integrity.You'll learn why ignoring "business experts" was the best decision John ever made, how to identify if you are a Visionary or an Integrator, and the crucial difference between self-promotion and community authority. We also dive deep into how faith fueled John through financial rock bottom and the practical steps entrepreneurs can take to build a business that prioritizes purpose over profit.Takeaways:- Purpose Beats Credentials: John didn't have a business degree or a safety net; he had a "hospital bed promise" to live with purpose. This intrinsic motivation fueled him through obstacles that would have stopped a purely profit-driven founder. - The "Anti-Lead" Business Model: John disrupted the industry by refusing to sell leads. Instead of charging per lead (which incentivizes quantity over quality), he charges a flat membership fee, aligning his success with the contractor's reputation rather than their marketing spend.- Validate with Sales, Not Software: You don't need a website to start. John launched his business with a yellow legal pad and a pen, collecting checks and validating the concept before spending a dime on digital infrastructure.- Ignore the "Experts": Multiple business consultants told John his model—personally guaranteeing contractor work—was "suicide." He ignored them, and that specific differentiator is what allowed him to back over $5 billion in projects.- The Visionary vs. Integrator Dynamic: John struggled with structure until he recognized he was a "Visionary" and needed an "Integrator" partner to handle operations. Knowing your personality type is crucial for scaling past the startup phase.-Crowdsourced Quality Control: Instead of just hunting for contractors himself, John built a referral program where he pays homeowners and other contractors to refer trusted pros, effectively letting the community build his vetting pipeline.- Risk is Lower Than You Think: Guaranteeing work sounds risky, but the data proves otherwise. Because the vetting process is so strict, The Good Contractors List has only had to pay out ~$127,000 on $5 billion worth of jobs.- Give More Than You Take: This isn't just a moral stance; it's a growth strategy. By not nickel-and-diming contractors for every lead, John built a loyal community that self-polices and promotes the brand organically.- Faith as a Stress Management Tool: John attributes his ability to handle the "Valley of Death" (running out of money) to a spiritual surrender. Removing his ego from the outcome allowed him to make clear decisions without panic.- Community Authority: A single contractor saying "I'm good" is marketing. A third-party organization backing that contractor with their own money is authority. John built a business on selling trust, not just advertising space.Tags: Home Services, Entrepreneurship, Business mindset, Faith, Startup, LeadershipResources:Grow your business today: https://links.upflip.com/the-business-startup-and-growth-blueprint-podcast Connect with John: https://thegoodcontractorslist.com/contractor-listings-and-our-team/
In this week's episode, we're re-airing one of our top episodes with Miranda Kerr, a globally recognized model and the founder & CEO of KORA Organics, a skincare brand known for its commitment to clean, certified organic products.For Miranda, the journey to founding KORA Organics wasn't just about beauty — it was about healing. After her mother's cancer diagnosis, she began questioning everything she put in and on her body, eventually realizing there was a gap in the market for truly clean, certified organic skincare that actually worked. Fueled by a personal mission and a vision for something better, she launched KORA Organics in 2009. Today, it's a global brand available in over 30 countries, but Miranda's approach remains deeply personal: leading with intention, staying hands-on with every product, and reminding people that real beauty begins with how we care for ourselves from the inside out.In this episode, Miranda shares the pivotal experiences that shaped her — from growing up in a wellness-focused family to how personal loss at a young age taught her resilience, gratitude, and emotional strength. She reflects on lessons from her early modeling career — handling rejection, building confidence, and trusting her inner voice — and how those experiences prepared her for entrepreneurship. Miranda takes us behind the scenes of launching KORA in the U.S., navigating a highly competitive market, and balancing the emotional highs and lows of building a global brand while raising a family. She also shares how mindfulness, presence, and self-care have been foundational to her success — and why prioritizing inner wellbeing remains at the core of her life and business, and so much more. In this episode, we'll talk to Miranda about:* Miranda's family approach to wellness. [03:22]* Her mother's cancer diagnosis. [05:26]* Losing her boyfriend & shifting her life perspective. [11:11]* The importance of expressing love and gratitude daily. [14:32]* Miranda's early modeling career. [17:45]* Navigating impostor syndrome & building confidence. [20:46]* Lessons in resilience and learning to handle rejection. [23:50]* Miranda's skincare learnings from her modeling career. [27:45]* Myths around certified organic products. [31:31]* The passion behind building KORA Organics. [32:45] * Launching KORA in the U.S. [36:36]* The challenges of entering the U.S. market. [40:33]* Managing emotional resilience as an entrepreneur. [44:56]* Managing motherhood with entrepreneurship. [47:24]* A behind-the-scenes look at Miranda's life as a mom. [48:18]* Balancing her yin and yang energy in daily life. [52:24]* The power of mindfulness and being present. [54:04]This episode is brought to you by beeya: * Learn more about beeya's seed cycling bundle at https://beeyawellness.com/free to find out how to tackle hormonal imbalances. * Get $10 off your order by using promo code BEHINDHEREMPIRE10Follow Yasmin: * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yasminknouri/* Stay updated & subscribe to our newsletter: https://www.behindherempire.com/Follow Miranda: * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mirandakerr/* Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/koraorganics/* Website: https://koraorganics.com/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Premium This is a preview of our premium episode. Full access is available only to premium subscribers. Click here and learn about the Premium Podcast to access this interview and transcript... Play audio-only preview episode | Play on YouTube | Play on Spotify Episode Summary AI is changing how projects operate, but speed and automation also introduce new risks that are easier to miss and harder to challenge. This conversation examines how artificial intelligence accelerates existing project warning signs and creates confidence without evidence. Cornelius Fichtner welcomes Matthew Oleniuk, author of The Seven Red Flags of Failing Projects, to revisit four critical red flags through an AI lens. Together, they discuss how AI-driven reporting, task automation, and decision support can intensify output-focused thinking, hide weak outcomes, and create polished narratives that mask real project health. The discussion emphasizes that AI does not introduce entirely new problems but magnifies behaviors that already exist in project environments, especially overconfidence, automation bias, and reduced human challenge.
The Couple With $8.5 Million… and One Salad “Bruce, I'm afraid we're going to run out of money.” He had over $8.5 million across different accounts. They were in their early 70s. On paper, they were far ahead of where most people ever get. https://www.youtube.com/live/L4phmdaJydw But his fear was so real that when they went out to dinner, his wife shared a salad instead of ordering her own—because he was afraid they “couldn't afford” it. This is what we see over and over again. People obsess over the question “how much do I need to retire?”They chase a number.They hit that number—or get close to it.And still feel anxious, fragile, and uncertain. The problem isn't just the money.The problem is the model. The Couple With $8.5 Million… and One SaladWhy “How Much Do I Need to Retire?” Is the Wrong First QuestionHow Much Do I Need to Retire? Why That Question Is MisleadingRetirement Cash Flow vs Nest Egg: What You Really NeedSequence of Return Risk in Retirement: Why Timing Matters More Than AveragesBuilding a Retirement Buffer Account to Protect Your PortfolioHow a buffer account protects your retirement portfolio:The LIFE Acronym for Retirement Planning: Liquid, Income, Flexible, EstateProblems With Traditional Retirement Planning and the 4 Percent RuleRedefining Retirement: Gradual Retirement vs Traditional “Out of Service”Cash-Flowing Assets and Alternative Investments for Retirement Cash FlowUsing Whole Life Insurance in Retirement for Guarantees and FlexibilityHow Much Do I Need to Retire? Rethinking the Real QuestionListen to the Full Episode on How Much Do I Need to RetireBook A Strategy CallFAQ: How Much Do I Need to Retire?How much do I need to retire comfortably?How do I know if I have enough to retire?What is sequence of return risk in retirement?What is a retirement buffer account?Is whole life insurance good for retirement income?How can I create guaranteed income in retirement without a pension?How much income do I need in retirement each month?How can my retirement plan serve future generations? Why “How Much Do I Need to Retire?” Is the Wrong First Question If you've ever typed how much do I need to retire or how much money do I need to retire into Google, you're not alone. The financial industry has trained us to believe that the right “number” equals security. But that question is incomplete. It ignores: How long you'll live How much you'll actually spend How many emergencies will show up What taxes and inflation will do What sequence of returns your investments will experience In this article, Bruce and I will help you: Understand why “how much do I need to retire” is the wrong question to start with See the difference between retirement cash flow vs nest egg Grasp sequence of return risk in retirement with simple examples Learn how a retirement buffer account can protect you Use the LIFE acronym for retirement planning (Liquid, Income, Flexible, Estate) Explore cash flowing assets, alternative investments, and whole life insurance in retirement Rethink retirement itself—from an “out of service” event to a purposeful, gradual transition My goal is to empower you to take control of your financial life with clarity, not fear. How Much Do I Need to Retire? Why That Question Is Misleading The classic commercial asked, “What's your number?” People walked around carrying a big orange figure that supposedly represented what they needed to retire. Here's the problem: That number assumes: A set rate of return A set withdrawal rate No major disruptions And that you won't touch your principal But real life is not a straight-line projection. When you ask how much do I need to retire, you're usually really asking: “How can I have enough cash flow for as long as I'm alive, without living in fear?” The issue is not just how much you have—it's how that wealth behaves under stress and how it converts into dependable income. Retirement Cash Flow vs Nest Egg: What You Really Need Traditional planning focuses on accumulation: “If I can just get to $X million, I'll be fine.” But what you actually live on is cash flow, not the size of your account statement. You need to know: How much income do I need in retirement each month? Which part of that income is guaranteed and which part is variable How that income will behave if markets drop or inflation spikes If you have $2 million but no idea how to turn that into reliable, sustainable cash flow, you will feel fragile. If you have a mix of guaranteed income in retirement plus flexible cash flowing assets, even a smaller nest egg can feel much more secure. The question isn't just how much money do I need to retire, but how do I design cash flow that will last? Sequence of Return Risk in Retirement: Why Timing Matters More Than Averages The industry loves to tell you that “the market averages 10% over time.” That's nice trivia—but it's not how your life works. If you're accumulating, you can ride out the ups and downs.If you're retired and pulling money out, the sequence of returns can make or break you. Here's a simple illustration: Start with $100,000 Year 1: -20% → now you have $80,000 Year 2: +20% → now you have $96,000 The average return is 0% (-20 + 20 / 2).But your actual money is down $4,000. Now imagine that on top of the losses, you're pulling out 4–6% per year to live. Suddenly, the portfolio has to recover the market loss and everything you withdrew. That's sequence of return risk explained with examples—and why relying solely on averages is dangerous. Building a Retirement Buffer Account to Protect Your Portfolio One of the most powerful ways to address sequence of return risk in retirement is using a retirement buffer account. The idea is simple: When markets are down, you do not take distributions from your volatile assets. Instead, you live off a separate, safe buffer of liquid capital. This buffer could be: Cash in the bank CDs or other stable vehicles Cash value in a well-designed whole life insurance policy How a buffer account protects your retirement portfolio: It gives your market-based assets time to recover It reduces the risk of selling low during downturns It lowers emotional stress when headlines scream “market crash” You're no longer forced to sell when everything is on sale. The LIFE Acronym for Retirement Planning: Liquid, Income, Flexible, Estate To make this practical, we often walk clients through the LIFE acronym for retirement planning: L – LiquidHow much “15-minute money” do you need to feel comfortable? This is money you can access quickly for emergencies or peace of mind—not dependent on your cash flow plan. I – IncomeHow much income do you need each month? How much of that would you like guaranteed? This is where retirement income planning really happens. F – FlexibleThis is liquid money that's not earmarked for emergencies or core living expenses. It's for things like trips, special projects, and helping kids or grandkids. It's the “I can do this without stress” bucket. E – EstateHow much do you want to leave behind, and in what form? This is where how to make your retirement plan serve future generations becomes part of the design. A well-designed mix of cash, whole life insurance, and other assets can touch every part of LIFE: Liquid, Income, Flexible, and Estate. Problems With Traditional Retirement Planning and the 4 Percent Rule Traditional planning often rests on: A withdrawal rule (4% or 5%) Market-based portfolios Historical averages and Monte Carlo simulations But as Bruce mentioned: A 100-year average doesn't matter if you're retired for 20 years Inflation erodes real purchasing power Market volatility plus withdrawals increase fragility Focusing only on accumulation creates emotional anxiety This is why cash flow vs accumulation in retirement planning is such an important shift. When you're not dependent on markets going up every year just so you can eat, your whole experience of retirement changes. Redefining Retirement: Gradual Retirement vs Traditional “Out of Service” Nelson Nash used to remind us: Retirement, by definition, means “taken out of service.” Most of us don't want to be taken out of service; we want to stay useful, engaged, and purposeful. Instead of a hard stop at 65, consider redefining retirement as a gradual retirement vs traditional retirement: Negotiating part-time work or consulting Reducing hours instead of walking away completely Staying in the game mentally, physically, and relationally We've seen engineers move to 10 hours a week, seasoned professionals mentor younger staff, and business owners step back from daily operations while still contributing. Purposeful work, even part-time, can: Supplement your retirement income Reduce pressure on your portfolio Keep you sharp and connected Retirement doesn't have to mean being benched. Cash-Flowing Assets and Alternative Investments for Retirement Cash Flow Another powerful way to support retirement is shifting some focus from growth-only assets to cash flowing assets for retirement. Examples include: Dividend-paying stocks Real estate (direct ownership or funds) Private lending Certain alternative investments for retirement For accredited investors, there are a variety of alternative investments for retirement cash flow: Multifamily apartment funds Industrial and distribution center funds Certain energy or infrastructure programs Technology and telecom infrastructure (like tower or data assets) These are not guaranteed and require careful due diligence, but they're often backed by real underlying assets and designed with yield in mind.
Most traders are taught to fear volatility—but volatility isn't the real danger.In this episode of the Learn to Swing Trade the Stock Market Podcast, Brian Montes explains why he does not trade stocks using leverage or margin, and why conflating volatility with risk is one of the most expensive mistakes retail traders make.You'll learn the critical difference between volatility and risk, how margin trading introduces hidden dangers like forced liquidation and time compression, and why disciplined swing traders actually benefit from volatility when trading without leverage.If you're swing trading, building a growth portfolio, or trying to trade consistently without blowing up your account, this episode will fundamentally change how you think about risk management.Volatility creates opportunity, not danger.Risk comes from over-leverage, not price movementMargin removes your margin of error and compresses your time horizonBrokers—not traders—control leveraged positions during volatility spikesSurvival is the first edge in tradingConsistency beats intensity every timeIf this episode helped reframe how you think about risk and volatility:
The Peaceful Plate: Ending Food Panic After Hormone-Driven Breast Cancer
So many women finish treatment for hormone-driven breast cancer and struggle to navigate their alcohol consumption; it causes so much angst! In today's episode I highlight the connection between alcohol and recurrence risk and guide you through an exercise in decision-making about your own approach to alcohol. If you feel guilty about your nightly wine or weekend martini habit, this is the episode for you! Click here to apply to my Peaceful Plate program! Get my FREE guide The Five Foods Survivors Should Eat; click here!Follow me on Instagram @hormone.breastcancer.dietitian
In this episode, we're joined by physiotherapist, trail runner and running-rehab specialist Sophie Vecchione for an in-depth conversation on RED-S, stress fractures, hormones and long-term athlete health.We explore why injuries like stress fractures are becoming increasingly common, how low energy availability and under-recovery impact the body, and why understanding hormonal health is essential for female athletes.In this episode we cover:• What RED-S actually is (and why it's more than just under-fuelling)• Stress fractures, bone health, and why they occur• How hormones influence injury risk across different life stages• Why postpartum and peri-/post-menopause are higher-risk periods for active women• The importance of menstrual health and building bone density in your teens and 20s• Exercise dependency, recovery, and the cost of chronic under-recovery• How to train for performance without compromising long-term healthSophie breaks down complex and often misunderstood topics with clarity, offering practical insights for runners and athletes navigating training through different phases of life.Whether you're a runner, CrossFit or HYROX athlete, or simply someone who trains regularly, this episode offers essential knowledge to help you stay healthy, resilient and performing well long-term.
Learn more about Brodie's Research Database & AI Assistant
Early treatment within the first week after a moderate or severe head injury sharply lowers your long-term risk of Alzheimer's disease and related cognitive decline Neurorehabilitation — including physical, occupational, cognitive and speech therapy — strengthens your brain's ability to reorganize itself, improving recovery and long-term function at any age Acting quickly after a head injury reduces the chances of developing mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and the need for Alzheimer's-related medications in the years that follow DMSO used in the early hours after injury helps blunt inflammation and protect vulnerable brain tissue, supporting a more stable neurological recovery Additional therapies such as flotation therapy, curcumin, photobiomodulation, pulsed electromagnetic field therapy, and CBD-rich formulations offer added support by lowering inflammation, boosting cellular energy and enhancing brain repair
Chris Markowski discusses the importance of understanding financial truths, the risks associated with online trading platforms, and the flaws in conventional financial wisdom. He emphasizes the need for effective risk management and the dangers of leveraging investments. Markowski also warns about the prevalence of zombie companies and the importance of investing in great businesses for long-term success. The conversation highlights the significance of adapting to market dynamics and preparing for unexpected shocks in the financial landscape.
On this episode: Why is there a disconnect between what people want and what financial advisors provide? Don’t fall prey to “bad actors” in the financial world. What are the actual steps to dialing back your portfolio risk? Subscribe or follow so you never miss an episode! Check out Fire Your Financial Advisor on YouTube! Learn more at GoldenReserve.com or follow on social: Facebook & LinkedIn.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On this episode: What do turkey-flavored Oreos have in common with financial products that aren’t what they seem? Are your retirement funds hiding surprises? Uncover the overlooked pitfalls of target date funds. Is generosity now a threat to your own retirement security? Is wiping out all your debt before retirement a smart move—or a costly mistake? Like this episode? Hit that Follow button and never miss an episode!
Despite two of the most crushing losses we've experienced as Packers fans, the Packers are officially in the playoffs — and that changes everything.No matter what happens against the Ravens on Saturday or the Vikings in Week 18, the Packers are guaranteed at least the 7 seed. That reality completely shifts how we should be thinking about injuries, rotations, and risk management heading into January.We break down what that means for Jordan Love, Zach Tom, Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs, Evan Williams, and several other key players dealing with injuries — and why resting certain guys may actually be the smartest path forward.Then we preview the Ravens matchup, starting with the massive news that Lamar Jackson is doubtful and Tyler Huntley is expected to start. We dive into how the Packers should defend Derrick Henry, why first and second down will decide this game, and what defensive looks give us the best chance to force Huntley to beat us.On offense, we look at how the Packers can attack a Ravens defense that lacks pass rush depth, how the run game should be deployed, and why Jayden Reed is positioned for a big bounce back game. We also address the Packers' recent red zone struggles and what needs to change immediately.This is the last guaranteed home game. The division is still technically in play. The playoffs are locked in. Now it's about health, execution, and making sure we peak at the right time.
.Raising funds to ease homelessness among women is the focus of a Sydney hotel, one of 12,000 social enterprises in Australia that combine profit with purpose.
In this Huberman Lab Essentials episode, my guest is Dr. Kyle Gillett, MD, a dual board-certified physician in family medicine and obesity medicine and an expert in optimizing hormone levels to improve overall health. We explain how to improve hormone levels across the lifespan in both men and women using behavioral, nutritional and exercise-based tools. We also discuss common clinical topics, including hormone testing, PCOS, hair loss, testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) and peptides, focusing on potential benefits, tradeoffs and risks. Read the episode show notes at hubermanlab.com. Thank you to our sponsors AG1: https://drinkag1.com/huberman Maui Nui: https://mauinuivenison.com/huberman Function: https://functionhealth.com/huberman Timestamps (00:00:00) Kyle Gillett (00:00:36) Hormone Health; Women vs Men, Tool: Hormone Testing (00:02:35) Tool: Big 6 Lifestyle Pillars to Optimize Hormone Health (00:04:32) Sponsor: AG1 (00:06:17) Diet, Individualization; Bloodwork & Frequency (00:07:20) Exercise, Zone 2 Cardio; Caloric Restriction (00:08:36) Intermittent Fasting, Growth Hormone, IGF-1 (00:11:05) Hormones & Sleep, Growth Hormone, Menopause, Andropause, TRT (00:13:28) Testosterone & Women, SHGB (00:15:19) Sponsor: Maui Nui (00:16:34) Dihydrotestosterone (DHT), Androgens; Turmeric & Black Pepper; Hair Loss (00:19:47) Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS), Symptoms, Metformin, Inositol (00:23:13) Cannabis, Alcohol, Testosterone (00:24:48) Males & Testosterone, TRT, Prostate Cancer (00:26:04) Prolactin, Dopamine "Wave Pool", Tool: Casein & Gluten (00:27:23) Sponsor: Function (00:29:03) Social Relationships & Hormones, Tool: Planning for Crisis (00:31:02) Peptides, Growth Hormone & Risk; BPC 157, Sourcing & LPS (00:36:42) Melanotan, Uses & Risks (00:38:45) Spiritual Health, Interdisciplinary Health Integration (00:41:23) Caffeine & Hormones, Sleep; Acknowledgements Disclaimer & Disclosures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Every holiday season, RISK! fans ask about this small handful of yuletide perennial favorites. Well here they all are, wrapped up in one neat package with a bow. Unwrap and enjoy these stories from Elna Baker, Kevin Allison, Sarah Long Hendershot, and Kate Bohl.
In this episode of the Metabolic Freedom Podcast, Ben Azadi reveals the 7 everyday foods and drinks that silently damage your kidneys, even when they are marketed as “healthy.” Ben shares his personal story of feeling bloated, inflamed, and exhausted while unknowingly harming his kidneys, and explains why kidney damage often goes undetected until it becomes permanent. You'll learn: Why green smoothies, almonds, and juice cleanses can increase kidney stone risk How diet sodas and sugar-free drinks accelerate kidney decline The hidden danger of phosphate additives in processed “health” foods Why dirty protein powders harm kidneys more than protein itself How excess sodium from packaged foods and restaurants damages kidney filters Safer food and drink swaps to protect kidney health The role oxalates, artificial sweeteners, and poor-quality salt play in kidney stress Practical steps to start protecting your kidneys today Ben also shares free and low-cost metabolic reset resources designed to reduce inflammation, burn fat, and support long-term kidney and metabolic health. This episode is a must-listen if you've had kidney stones, struggle with inflammation, or feel “off” despite eating clean. FREE GUIDE: Lose 10 Pounds in 7 Days - https://bit.ly/3MQkr3B
In this episode, we examine what actually counts as a victimless crime and why the term is so often misused, using examples ranging from seatbelt and helmet laws to drugs, prostitution, and software piracy. We discuss how insurance markets price risk more effectively than regulation, and why many so-called crimes are really paperwork violations with no direct victims. We also look at the limits of automation through recent failures in self-driving technology, and highlight the Foolishness of the Week involving ideological monocultures in academia and the incentives that sustain them. The conversation then turns to the main topic of whether there should be an age limit for the presidency, weighing cognitive decline, longevity, institutional incentives, and why existing safeguards like the 25th Amendment rarely function as intended. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:29 What Counts as a Victimless Crime? 01:38 Insurance, Risk, and Who Really Pays 04:36 Drugs, Prostitution, and True Victimless Crimes 06:26 Regulatory Crimes vs Real Human Harm 07:53 Software Piracy and Intellectual Property 12:38 Waymo, Power Outages, and Self-Driving Failures 14:49 Foolishness of the Week: Academic Monocultures in Academia 17:10 Personal Stories of Academic Censorship 20:39 Main Topic: Should Presidents Have an Age Limit? 21:41 Biden, Trump, and Cognitive Decline 24:39 Living Longer, Dementia, and Modern Leadership Risks 29:34 Age Limits in Other Professions 33:00 The Age of Past Presidents When Initially Elected 37:35 Which Presidents Would Have Survived a Term Age Limit? 39:33 The 25th Amendment and Why It Rarely Works 40:57 Incentives, Power, and Presidential Succession 43:53 Closing Thoughts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
BONUS: Breaking Through The Organizational Immune System - Why Software-Native Organizations Are Still Rare With Vasco Duarte In this BONUS episode, we explore the organizational barriers that prevent companies from becoming truly software-native. Despite having proof that agile, iterative approaches work at scale—from Spotify to Amazon to Etsy—most organizations still struggle to adopt these practices. We reveal the root cause behind this resistance and expose four critical barriers that form what we call "The Organizational Immune System." This isn't about resistance to change; it's about embedded structures, incentives, and mental models that actively reject beneficial transformation. The Root Cause: Project Management as an Incompatible Mindset "Project management as a mental model is fundamentally incompatible with software development. And will continue to be, because 'project management' as an art needs to support industries that are not software-native." The fundamental problem isn't about tools or practices—it's about how we think about work itself. Project management operates on assumptions that simply don't hold true for software development. It assumes you can know the scope upfront, plan everything in advance, and execute according to that plan. But software is fundamentally different. A significant portion of the work only becomes visible once you start building. You discover that the "simple" feature requires refactoring three other systems. You learn that users actually need something different than what they asked for. This isn't poor planning—it's the nature of software. Project management treats discovery as failure ("we missed requirements"), while software-native thinking treats discovery as progress ("we learned something critical"). As Vasco points out in his NoEstimates work, what project management calls "scope creep" should really be labeled "value discovery" in software—because we're discovering more value to add. Discovery vs. Execution: Why Software Needs Different Success Metrics "Software hypotheses need to be tested in hours or days, not weeks, and certainly not months. You can't wait until the end of a 12-month project to find out your core assumption was wrong." The timing mismatch between project management and software development creates fundamental problems. Project management optimizes for plan execution with feedback loops that are months or years long, with clear distinctions between teams doing requirements, design, building, and testing. But software needs to probe and validate assumptions in hours or days. Questions like "Will users actually use this feature?" or "Does this architecture handle the load?" can't wait for the end of a 12-month project. When we finally discover our core assumption was wrong, we need to fully replan—not just "change the plan." Software-native organizations optimize for learning speed, while project management optimizes for plan adherence. These are opposing and mutually exclusive definitions of success. The Language Gap: Why Software Needs Its Own Vocabulary "When you force software into project management language, you lose the ability to manage what actually matters. You end up tracking task completion while missing that you're building the wrong thing." The vocabulary we use shapes how we think about problems and solutions. Project management talks about tasks, milestones, percent complete, resource allocation, and critical path. Software needs to talk about user value, technical debt, architectural runway, learning velocity, deployment frequency, and lead time. These aren't just different words—they represent fundamentally different ways of thinking about work. When organizations force software teams to speak in project management terms, they lose the ability to discuss and manage what actually creates value in software development. The Scholarship Crisis: An Industry-Wide Knowledge Gap "Agile software development represents the first worldwide trend in scholarship around software delivery. But most organizational investment still goes into project management scholarship and training." There's extensive scholarship in IT, but almost none about delivery processes until recently. The agile movement represents the first major wave of people studying what actually works for building software, rather than adapting thinking from manufacturing or construction. Yet most organizational investment continues to flow into project management certifications like PMI and Prince2, and traditional MBA programs—all teaching an approach with fundamental problems when applied to software. This creates an industry-wide challenge: when CFOs, executives, and business partners all think in project management terms, they literally cannot understand why software needs to work differently. The mental model mismatch isn't just a team problem—it's affecting everyone in the organization and the broader industry. Budget Cycles: The Project Funding Trap "You commit to a scope at the start, when you know the least about what you need to build. The budget runs out exactly when you're starting to understand what users actually need." Project thinking drives project funding: organizations approve a fixed budget (say $2M over 9 months) to deliver specific features. This seems rational and gives finance predictability, but it's completely misaligned with how software creates value. Teams commit to scope when they know the least about what needs building. The budget expires just when they're starting to understand what users actually need. When the "project" ends, the team disbands, taking all their accumulated knowledge with them. Next year, the cycle starts over with a new project, new team, and zero retained context. Meanwhile, the software itself needs continuous evolution, but the funding structure treats it as a series of temporary initiatives with hard stops. The Alternative: Incremental Funding and Real-Time Signals "Instead of approving $2M for 9 months, approve smaller increments—maybe $200K for 6 weeks. Then decide whether to continue based on what you've learned." Software-native organizations fund teams working on products, not projects. This means incremental funding decisions based on learning rather than upfront commitments. Instead of detailed estimates that pretend to predict the future, they use lightweight signals from the NoEstimates approach to detect problems early: Are we delivering value regularly? Are we learning? Are users responding positively? These signals provide more useful information than any Gantt chart. Portfolio managers shift from being "task police" asking "are you on schedule?" to investment curators asking "are we seeing the value we expected? Should we invest more, pivot, or stop?" This mirrors how venture capital works—and software is inherently more like VC than construction. Amazon exemplifies this approach, giving teams continuous funding as long as they're delivering value and learning, with no arbitrary end date to the investment. The Business/IT Separation: A Structural Disaster "'The business' doesn't understand software—and often doesn't want to. They think in terms of features and deadlines, not capabilities and evolution." Project thinking reinforces organizational separation: "the business" defines requirements, "IT" implements them, and project managers coordinate the handoff. This seems logical with clear specialization and defined responsibilities. But it creates a disaster. The business writes requirements documents without understanding what's technically possible or what users actually need. IT receives them, estimates, and builds—but the requirements are usually wrong. By the time IT delivers, the business need has changed, or the software works but doesn't solve the real problem. Sometimes worst of all, it works exactly as specified but nobody wants it. This isn't a communication problem—it's a structural problem created by project thinking. Product Thinking: Starting with Behavior Change "Instead of 'build a new reporting dashboard,' the goal is 'reduce time finance team spends preparing monthly reports from 40 hours to 4 hours.'" Software-native organizations eliminate the business/IT separation by creating product teams focused on outcomes. Using approaches like Impact Mapping, they start with behavior change instead of features. The goal becomes a measurable change in business behavior or performance, not a list of requirements. Teams measure business outcomes, not task completion—tracking whether finance actually spends less time on reports. If the first version doesn't achieve that outcome, they iterate. The "requirement" isn't sacred; the outcome is. "Business" and "IT" collaborate on goals rather than handing off requirements. They're on the same team, working toward the same measurable outcome with no walls to throw things over. Spotify's squad model popularized this approach, with each squad including product managers, designers, and engineers all focused on the same part of the product, all owning the outcome together. Risk Management Theater: The Appearance of Control "Here's the real risk in software: delivering software that nobody wants, and having to maintain it forever." Project thinking creates elaborate risk management processes—steering committees, gate reviews, sign-offs, extensive documentation, and governance frameworks. These create the appearance of managing risk and make everyone feel professional and in control. But paradoxically, the very practices meant to manage risk end up increasing the risk of catastrophic failure. This mirrors Chesterton's Fence paradox. The real risk in software isn't about following the plan—it's delivering software nobody wants and having to maintain it forever. Every line of code becomes a maintenance burden. If it's not delivering value, you're paying the cost forever or paying additional cost to remove it later. Traditional risk management theater doesn't protect against this at all. Gates and approvals just slow you down without validating whether users will actually use what you're building or whether the software creates business value. Agile as Risk Management: Fast Learning Loops "Software-native organizations don't see 'governance' and 'agility' as a tradeoff. Agility IS governance. Fast learning loops ARE how you manage risk." Software-native organizations recognize that agile and product thinking ARE risk management. The fastest way to reduce risk is delivering quickly—getting software in front of real users in production with real data solving real problems, not in demos or staging environments. Teams validate expected value by measuring whether software achieves intended outcomes. Did finance really reduce their reporting time? Did users actually engage with the feature? When something isn't working, teams change it quickly. When it is working, they double down. Either way, they're managing risk through rapid learning. Eric Ries's Lean Startup methodology isn't just for startups—it's fundamentally a software-native management practice. Build-Measure-Learn isn't a nice-to-have; it's how you avoid the catastrophic risk of building the wrong thing. The Risk Management Contrast: Theater vs. Reality "Which approach actually manages risk? The second one validates assumptions quickly and cheaply. The first one maximizes your exposure to building the wrong thing." The contrast between approaches is stark. Risk management theater involves six months of requirements gathering and design, multiple approval gates that claim to prevent risk but actually accumulate it, comprehensive test plans, and a big-bang launch after 12 months. Teams then discover users don't want it—and now they're maintaining unwanted software forever. The agile risk management approach takes two weeks to build a minimal viable feature, ships to a subset of users, measures actual behavior, learns it's not quite right, iterates in another two weeks, validates value before scaling, and only maintains software that's proven valuable. The second approach validates assumptions quickly and cheaply. The first maximizes exposure to building the wrong thing. The Immune System in Action: How Barriers Reinforce Each Other "When you try to 'implement agile' without addressing these structural barriers, the organization's immune system rejects it. Teams might adopt standups and sprints, but nothing fundamental changes." These barriers work together as an immune system defending the status quo. It starts with the project management mindset—the fundamental belief that software is like construction, that we can plan it all upfront, that "done" is a meaningful state. That mindset creates funding models that allocate budgets to temporary projects instead of continuous products, organizational structures that separate "business" from "IT" and treat software as a cost center, and risk management theater that optimizes for appearing in control rather than actually learning. Each barrier reinforces the others. The funding model makes it hard to keep stable product teams. The business/IT separation makes it hard to validate value quickly. The risk theater slows down learning loops. The whole system resists change—even beneficial change—because each part depends on the others. This is why so many "agile transformations" fail: they treat the symptoms (team practices) without addressing the disease (organizational structures built on project thinking). Breaking Free: Seeing the System Clearly "Once you see the system clearly, you can transform it. You now know the root cause, how it manifests, and what the alternatives look like." Understanding these barriers is empowering. It's not that people are stupid or resistant to change—organizations have structural barriers built on a fundamental mental model mismatch. But once you see the system clearly, transformation becomes possible. You now understand the root cause (project management mindset), how it manifests in your organization (funding models, business/IT separation, risk theater), and what the alternatives look like through real examples from companies successfully operating as software-native organizations. The path forward requires addressing the disease, not just the symptoms—transforming the fundamental structures and mental models that shape how your organization approaches software. Recommended Further Reading Vasco's article on 5 examples of software disasters that show we are in the middle of another software crisis NoEstimates movement: Vasco Duarte's work and book Impact Mapping: Gojko Adzic's framework Lean Startup: Eric Ries, "The Lean Startup" Outcome-based funding model Spotify squad model: Henrik Kniberg's materials Chesterton's fence paradox About Vasco Duarte Vasco Duarte is a thought leader in the Agile space, co-founder of Agile Finland, and host of the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast, which has over 10 million downloads. Author of NoEstimates: How To Measure Project Progress Without Estimating, Vasco is a sought-after speaker and consultant helping organizations embrace Agile practices to achieve business success. You can link with Vasco Duarte on LinkedIn.
Rebranding a company is rarely neat, and James Clark makes that clear in this conversation. He talks through the pressure of changing a long established name, the internal tension that came with it and the need to build something that reflects future ambition rather than past comfort. His breakdown of stakeholder alignment, intellectual coherence and disciplined decision making gives founders a practical view of how to manage identity change at scale. It is a calm and honest look at the work behind a brand that now represents a fast growing venture capital firm with global reach.Guest note:James Clark is the Marketing Director at Molten Ventures, known for leading one of the most complex rebrands in European venture capital.Key TakeawaysA rebrand must reflect where the organisation is going, not where it has been.Stakeholder alignment matters more than visual design.Intellectual coherence gives a brand long term strength.Risk is part of the process but it must be managed with structure and clarity.
Lloyd Blankfein never chased a master plan. He focused on whatever was right in front of him, and those small decisions carried him from a Brooklyn housing project to leading Goldman Sachs through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.In this episode of Big Shot, Harley and David sit down with Lloyd to explore how that path unfolded. He talks about growing up in public housing and sharing a room with his grandmother, then suddenly finding himself at Harvard at 16, arriving in a suit because he had no idea what college culture looked like. He reflects on the dislocation of moving between the projects and the Ivy League and how he learned to navigate both worlds without ever feeling fully at home in either.Lloyd traces his shift from law to commodities, what he absorbed inside J. Aron, and how a crisis inside Goldman in the 1980s reshaped the firm and opened unexpected doors. He also shares what it was like to lead Goldman Sachs through 2008, why Warren Buffett's support mattered at a defining moment, and what it took to keep the firm intact while the global financial system was breaking apart.It is a conversation about chance, focus, resilience, and the surprising places a life can go when you simply take the next step.—In This Episode We Cover:(00:00) Intro(05:15) Lloyd's early days(07:05) How Lloyd graduated early (08:53) How Lloyd ended up at Harvard at 16 (10:56) A glimpse at just how humble his beginnings truly were(13:42) What it was like arriving at Harvard with no roadmap(19:37) Why top public-university talent can match (and sometimes surpass) the Ivies(20:27) What it was like moving between worlds (25:05) Why it took a long time to adjust to the burden of great wealth (27:11) What led Lloyd to law school(28:48) Lloyd's approach of thinking one step ahead(30:35) Why Lloyd quit practicing law (35:16) Lloyd's pivot to finance and initial rejection from Goldman Sachs(41:00) The J. Aron role that pulled Lloyd into Goldman (49:30) Inside the meritocracy of Goldman Sachs (53:08) How Lloyd ended up making partner at Goldman Sachs unexpectedly(1:02:30) Building trust across cultures (1:06:52) What changed after making partner (1:10:10) What sparked Lloyd's retirement and renewed focus on learning(1:14:42) How the 1994 crisis set the stage for Lloyd to become CEO(1:22:00) Steering the firm through the 2008 financial crisis(1:28:22) The deal with Warren Buffett (1:37:58) Risk-taking vs. risk management (1:39:04) How anxiety fuels Lloyd's risk management style (1:42:00) Lloyd's biggest accomplishment at Goldman Sachs (1:46:21) A case for self-acceptance —Where To Find Lloyd Blankfein: • X: https://x.com/lloydblankfeinWhere To Find Big Shot: • Website: https://www.bigshot.show/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@bigshotpodcast • TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bigshotshow• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bigshotshow/ • Harley Finkelstein: https://twitter.com/harleyf • David Segal: https://twitter.com/tea_maverick• Production and Marketing: https://penname.co
Most people never talk about the retirement income gap — the difference between what you think you'll need and what you actually have saved, and that's exactly why most retirements fall short.Using disciplined retirement strategies like dollar cost averaging and optimizing employer matches can dramatically improve your long-term success.FREE 15-minute call: https://calendly.com/charlesdzama/complimentary-15-minute-phone-call-youtubeNewsletter: https://cdfinancial.com/newsletterSocials:Instagram: https://instagram.com/cdfinancial.llc/Facebook: https://facebook.com/cdfinancialLinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/cd-financial
Is fear holding you back from what God is calling you to do? Today I'm joined by Dave Pasti, author of Worth the Risk, for a powerful conversation about faith, courage, marriage, and choosing obedience over comfort. This is real-life bravery—the kind that costs something and changes everything.Prime Sponsor: No matter where you live, visit the Functional Medical Institute online today to connect with Drs Mark and Michele Sherwood. Go to homeschoolhealth.com to get connected and see some of my favorites items. Use coupon code HEIDI for 20% off!BRAVE Books | heidibrave.comEquipping The Persecuted Coffee | ETPcoffee.comShow mentions: http://heidistjohn.com/mentionsWebsite | heidistjohn.comSupport the show! | donorbox.org/donation-827Rumble | rumble.com/user/HeidiStJohnYoutube | youtube.com/@HeidiStJohnPodcastInstagram | @heidistjohnFacebook | Heidi St. JohnX | @heidistjohnFaith That Speaks Online CommunitySubmit your questions for Fan Mail Friday | heidistjohn.net/fanmailfriday
Is fear holding you back from what God is calling you to do? Today I'm joined by Dave Pasti, author of Worth the Risk, for a powerful conversation about faith, courage, marriage, and choosing obedience over comfort. This is real-life bravery—the kind that costs something and changes everything. Prime Sponsor: No matter where you live, visit the Functional Medical Institute online today to connect with Drs Mark and Michele Sherwood. Go to homeschoolhealth.com to get connected and see some of my favorites items. Use coupon code HEIDI for 20% off! BRAVE Books | heidibrave.comEquipping The Persecuted Coffee | ETPcoffee.com Show mentions: Mentions — Heidi St JohnWebsite | heidistjohn.comSupport the show! | donorbox.org/donation-827Rumble | rumble.com/user/HeidiStJohnYoutube | youtube.com/@HeidiStJohnPodcastInstagram | @heidistjohnFacebook | Heidi St. JohnX | @heidistjohnFaith That Speaks Online CommunitySubmit your questions for Fan Mail Friday | heidistjohn.net/fanmailfriday
On episode 444 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss what a normal year in the stock market looks like, time traveling through drawdowns, the case for small/mid cap stocks, how many stocks double each year, record cash balances, the economy keeps growing, financial nihilism, gambling, illiquidity risk in private investments and much more. This episode is sponsored by TradePMR & Fabric by Gerber Life. Find more details on TradePMR by visiting: https://hubs.li/Q03XS3Sj0 Join the thousands of parents who trust Fabric to help protect their family. Apply today in just minutes at: https://meetfabric.com/SPIRITS Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. TradeTMR Disclosure: TradePMR, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through TradePMR Inc. TradePMR, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc. Please review the full Terms and Conditions at (https://tradepmr.com/asset-match-terms-and-conditions) for the complete rules, requirements, and obligations that apply to participation in the program. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than one in 10 adults experience dysfunctional breathing symptoms like air hunger and chest tightness, even without having diagnosed lung disease People who currently smoke, or have a history of smoking and respiratory illness, face a dramatically higher risk of developing dysfunctional breathing patterns Dysfunctional breathing leads to overuse of neck and chest muscles, creating tension, fatigue, and shallow breathing that feeds a vicious cycle of stress and exhaustion Poor breathing habits interfere with heart function by reducing heart rate variability and disrupting the body's natural balance between oxygen and carbon dioxide Smoking worsens immune function, promotes oxidative stress, and triggers long-term biological changes that increase your risk for cancer, chronic illness, and dysfunctional breathing
Coastal Economy and Tourism face a serious threat as the US government moves forward with a plan to open more than one billion acres of ocean to offshore oil and gas drilling, a decision that could impact beaches, fisheries, tourism jobs, and coastal communities for decades. This episode explains why this proposal matters now and how it could reshape life along the coasts of California, Alaska, and the Gulf of Mexico. Offshore oil drilling is often framed as an economic benefit, but this conversation reveals a very different reality. Pete Stauffer from the Surfrider Foundation breaks down how tourism, recreation, and fishing support millions more jobs than oil and gas, and why a single spill can shut down beaches, fisheries, and local businesses for months or even years. Ocean conservation becomes deeply personal in this episode when Pete shares how communities still feel the impacts of oil spills years later, including business owners who lost income, beaches closed for days, and volunteers stepping up to document pollution when official systems failed. The surprising truth is that offshore drilling is widely unpopular across political lines, and grassroots action has stopped similar plans before. Help fund a new seagrass podcast: https://www.speakupforblue.com/seagrass Join the Undertow: https://www.speakupforblue.com/jointheundertow Connect with Speak Up For Blue Website: https://bit.ly/3fOF3Wf Instagram: https://bit.ly/3rIaJSG TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@speakupforblue Twitter: https://bit.ly/3rHZxpc YouTube: www.speakupforblue.com/youtube
What if the life you're meant to live requires faith without a roadmap, courage without guarantees, and the willingness to trust God in the unknown?In this powerful inspirational podcast episode, Reginald D sits down with global storyteller, producer, creative leader, and author DJ Williams for a deeply motivational, faith-driven conversation about purpose, resilience, and trusting God when life doesn't come with clear directions.From growing up in Hong Kong as a missionary kid to navigating Hollywood boardrooms, international ministry, creative risk, near-death experiences, and bestselling novels, DJ Williams shares inspirational stories that reveal how faith is built in real life — not inherited, not performed, but lived.Many people feel stuck between calling and comfort — knowing they were created for more, but unsure how to move without certainty. This episode speaks directly to that tension. Whether you're navigating career transitions, creative dreams, faith questions, or personal growth, DJ Williams' journey shows how trusting God in the unseen moments builds lasting purpose.This motivational and inspirational podcast meets you where you are and reminds you that faith, creativity, and purpose don't require perfection — they require courage.Press play now to experience one of the most inspirational, motivational, and faith-centered conversations on Real Talk With Reginald D — and walk away encouraged to trust God, take the risk, and write your own story.DJ's contact info:Author of the Chase Hardeman thriller series & the Beacon Hill YA series. KING OF THE NIGHT and BATTLE OF LION ROCK are AVAILABLE NOW!Website: https://djwiliamsbooks.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/djwilliamsbooks X: https://x.com/djwilliamsbooksinspirational podcast, motivational podcast, motivational speech, inspirational, motivation, faith and motivation, inspirational stories, motivational speeches, faith-based inspiration, motivational and inspirational, inspirational faith journey, purpose driven motivation, trusting God in the unknown, inspirational life stories, faith based motivation, personal growth inspiration, Christian, Self ImprovementSend us a textSupport the showFor daily motivation and inspiration, subscribe and follow Real Talk With Reginald D on social media:Instagram: realtalkwithreginaldd TikTok: @realtalkregd Youtube: @realtalkwithreginald Facebook: realtalkwithreginaldd Twitter Real Talk With Reginald D (@realtalkRegD) / TwitterWebsite: Real Talk With Reginald D https://www.realtalkwithreginaldd.com Real Talk With Reginald D - Merchandise
Did you know that bone building starts to decline at age 30? That means for many of us, especially women in midlife, osteoporosis is a real concern. Registered Dietician, and Integrative & Functional Nutritionist Susan McCandless joins me to share what breaks down your bone health and what builds it up. She offers practical suggestions and guidelines to help you adjust your diet for strong, dense and flexible bones. You'll come away feeling empowered to make bone health a priority for a confident and active life.Susan McCandless is a Functional Dietitian Nutritionist, and holds advanced certifications in digestive health, immunology, genetics, food sensitivities and intuitive eating. Board Certified in Integrativce and Functional Nutrition, Susan understands how body systems work together. She focuses on improving client function and performance by treating the root cause of nutrition imbalances. ORDER my Book Permission for Pleasure: Tending Your Sexual GardenJOIN my Newsletter: Good Education for Good SexFOLLOW on Instagram @cindyscharkeyVISIT my website and blog
Ty Gentile, James Rana, and David Hu share yuletide tales about Christmas carols, Black Santas, and of course, excretory health in our annual winter holidays special for 2025.
A new Intermountain Health study presented at the American Heart Association's 2025 Scientific Sessions found that adults with heart disease who optimized their vitamin D levels cut their risk of another heart attack by 52% Most participants began the trial with low vitamin D levels, showing that deficiency is common in people with cardiovascular disease and silently increases the risk of recurring heart problems More than half of the patients needed over 5,000 IU of vitamin D3 daily — six times the FDA's recommended intake — to reach protective blood levels between 40 and 80 ng/mL Vitamin D acts as a hormone that helps lower inflammation, maintain proper calcium balance, improve blood vessel function, and reduce oxidative stress — all key to preventing heart damage Regular testing, personalized dosing, sunlight exposure, and daily exercise are simple, measurable ways to restore vitamin D, strengthen your heart, and reduce your risk of another cardiac event
In this episode of Best in Fest, host Leslie LaPage sits down with Jessica Rizk (director, writer, producer, animator) and Soren Anderson (composer and sound designer) to unpack the creation of Cracked — a haunting, hand-drawn 2D animated short exploring mental health, self-neglect, and emotional collapse.Over the course of a two-year DIY production, Cracked was animated frame-by-frame, scored from scratch, and built without shortcuts — revealing the true scope of independent animation today.In this episode, we explore:
In the past 11 months, the Trump administration has stripped more than 1.6 million people of legal status. NPR's Ximena Bustillo shares more about the largest removal of deportation protections from legal migrants in U.S. history.Then, CBS held a story alleging abuse at a detention center in El Salvador from air. Now, it's online. NPR media correspondent David Folkenflik details what we've learned. And, the U.S.'s interception of oil carriers from Venezuela is deepening an economic crisis in Cuba, which relies on Venezuelan oil. The Wall Street Journal's Juan Forero explains the impact.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
For years, gold was the asset nobody wanted to talk about. It sat there quietly while stocks and real estate continued to rip. Gold was for pessimists. For doomsayers and perma-bears.And then suddenly… gold didn't just wake up. It launched. As of mid-December 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,300–$4,400 an ounce, depending on the market, marking a gain of roughly 60% over the past year and pushing decisively into record territory. The obvious question is: why now? The short answer is that gold isn't reacting to one thing. It's responding to a stacking of pressures that have been quietly building for years and are now impossible to ignore.Start with central banks. For the better part of the last decade, central banks were net sellers or indifferent holders of gold. That changed dramatically after 2022. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have been buying gold at more than double the pace of the pre-COVID years, and 2025 continues that trend, with hundreds of tonnes added to reserves year-to-date. These aren't hedge funds chasing momentum. These are monetary authorities making deliberate, strategic decisions about what they trust to hold value. Why would central banks suddenly want more gold? Because geopolitics has re-entered the chat. We now live in a world where reserves can be frozen, payment systems can be weaponized, and “risk-free” assets depend heavily on political alignment. The World Bank has been explicit that rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty are key drivers of gold's surge this year. When trust in the global order erodes, gold benefits. At the same time, the U.S. dollar devaluation thesis is no longer fringe thinking. It is reality.Gold is priced in dollars, and when real yields fall and the dollar weakens, gold historically performs well. That dynamic is playing out again. Reuters has repeatedly pointed to a softer dollar and declining Treasury yields as near-term tailwinds for gold's rally . Bank of America's research echoes this relationship, emphasizing gold's inverse correlation to the dollar and the growing desire among nations to diversify away from dollar-centric reserves . In other words, gold isn't just going up because people are scared. It's going up because confidence in fiat discipline is eroding, slowly but persistently. So…Is gold still a buy or did we miss it? The truth is, both answers can be correct. Yes, gold is expensive relative to where it was a year ago. You don't go up 60% without pulling future returns forward. But what makes this cycle different is that many of the buyers driving demand are price-insensitive. Central banks don't care if gold is up 20% or down 10% in a quarter. They care about long-term reserve integrity. That's why major institutions aren't dismissing the move as a blow-off. Goldman Sachs has cited sustained central-bank demand and the potential for further ETF inflows as supportive of higher prices. J.P. Morgan continues to frame gold as a beneficiary of geopolitical instability and monetary uncertainty, and Bank of America is projecting prices as high as $5,000 an ounce into 2026. Of course, nothing goes up in a straight line. A shift toward tighter monetary policy or a sudden easing of global tensions could cool enthusiasm. Understand though, that gold's breakout isn't just about gold. There is a larger message that should be taken away from all of this. Hard money has come back into favor. Gold is the original hard asset. It's scarce, politically neutral, and has thousands of years of monetary credibility. But it's also heavy, difficult to move, and awkward in a digital world. Bitcoin exists on the same philosophical axis. Both gold and Bitcoin are reactions to the same problem: expanding debt, monetary dilution, and declining confidence in centralized control. Gold is the conservative expression of that view. Bitcoin is the aggressive one. Today, Bitcoin trades around $86,000, still volatile, still controversial, still misunderstood. But if gold's surge is signaling a regime shift toward hard assets, then Bitcoin may simply be earlier in that adoption curve. In other words, gold may be leading the parade. And if history is any guide, when institutions start moving into the oldest form of sound money, they eventually begin exploring the newest. That's the signal worth paying attention to. So this week, I interview Dana Samuelson, an old friend of the show and an expert in everything gold and hard money. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Gold isn’t reacting to one thing, it’s actually responding to a stacking, uh, pressures, uh, that have been quietly building for years and, and really right now are impossible to ignore. Welcome, everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast coming to you. From Montecito, California and today. Uh, before we begin, just a quick reminder. Uh, there is a, uh, website associated with this podcast called wealth formula.com. And, uh, that’s where you go to get deeply more deeply integrated into this community, including our accredited investor club, AKA investor club for you to join. And, uh, once you get onboarded, all you do is you, you have an opportunity to see private deal flow, uh, that, uh, is not available to the general public. If you are an accredited investor, meaning that you have, uh, make $200,000 per year or $300,000 per year, uh, for the last two years with the reasonable expectation of continuing to do so, or you have a million dollars outside of your personal residence, a net worth, then you are an accredited investor and. All you need to do is sign up and join the club. Just go to wealth formula.com and sign up and get onboarded. Now, let’s talk a little bit about something that has been extraordinary this year. It’s gold. You know, for years, gold was the asset that nobody wanted to talk about. I mean, it sat there quietly. Well, stocks and real estate continue to rip. Um. Gold really is really, you know, was for the pessimists. For the doomsayers and the perma bears. I mean, I, I gotta tell you, I kind of am was one of those people, right? And then suddenly gold didn’t just wake up. It, it totally launched, exploded in his mid-December 2025. Spot Gold is trading around, I know, 4300, 4400 an ounce, depending on the market, gaining roughly 60% over the past year. Pushing decisively into record territory. Now the obvious question is why now? Well, the short answer is that gold isn’t reacting to one thing. It’s actually responding to a stacking, uh, pressures, uh, that have been quietly building for years and, and really right now are impossible to ignore. And this is an interesting shift because. The thing is that in the old days, and I’m even talking about 15, 20 years ago, uh, you would look at gold as something that didn’t really go up when the stock market was doing well, right? It was kind of a reaction. It was a fear-based thing. It still is sort of a fear-based thing, but now it’s not just fear of, you know, whether the stock market’s gonna crash. It’s fear of geopolitical concerns. That’s where the central banks come in, right? So for the better part of the last decade, central banks were net sellers. Or really indifferent of holders of, of gold, and that changed dramatically after 2022. So according to World Gold Council, central banks have been buying gold at more than double the pace of the pre COVID years. And 2025 continued that trend with hundreds of tons, uh, added to reserves year to date Now. These are central banks. They’re not hedge funds chasing momentum, right? They’re monetary authorities and they’re making deliberate strategic decisions about what they trust to hold value. And why would central banks suddenly want more gold? Well, because again, geopolitics has reentered that chat. We live in a world now where reserves can be frozen, right? Payment systems can be weaponized. Risk-free assets depend heavily on political alignment. Now of course, I’m talking about the United States when I’m mentioning all those things, right? Uh, how we can kind of just freeze assets of Russia and that kind of thing. I’m not, uh, pro-Russia, I’m just pointing out the fact that. Countries don’t like it when you freeze their assets. Right? The World Bank, uh, has been explicit that rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty are the key drivers of gold surges this year. And when trust in the global Ory roads, of course that is now when gold benefits and at the same time, the US dollar devaluation thesis is no longer just kind of fringe thinking. It’s reality. No one, no one even bothers to pretend that that’s not happening. So gold is, uh, of course, priced in dollars and when real yields fall, uh, and the dollar weakens gold historically performs well so that that dynamic is playing out again as well. In fact, Reuters has repeatedly pointed to a softer dollar and declining treasury yields as near term tailwinds for Gold’s Rally Bank of America. Uh, their research shows, uh, this relationship emphasizing gold’s inverse correlation to the dollar and the growing desire among nations to diversify away from the dollar centric reserves. In other words, gold isn’t just going up because people are scared. It’s going up because confidence in the fiat discipline is eroding altogether slowly. Persistently. So the question is, is gold still a buyer? Did we miss it? I mean, I just mentioned that it just went up by like 60%, right? So that’s a tricky question. It really is. I could certainly see some volatility there. But here’s the thing. I mentioned that central banks were big buyer, right? Central banks don’t care if gold is up 20% or down 10% in a quarter. They care about long-term reserve integrity. So they’re a price insensitive buyer. Um, and that’s why major, major institutions aren’t dismissing the move, as you know, just a big blow off. Uh, Goldman Sachs cited sustain central bank demand, and the potential for further ETF inflows is supportive of higher prices. Banks, uh, like JP Morgan and um, and, and Bank of America. I mean, they’re continuously talking about how gold is a beneficiary of this geopolitical instability. Bank of America is projecting prices high as $5,000 a ounce in 2026. So that’s still a big move, right? Of course, nothing goes up in a straight line. So shift toward tighter monetary policy or sudden easing of global tensions. Well, I, I could, they could cool enthusiasm, right? The less fear in the world. Well, that isn’t. That’s not good for gold. I understand though that gold’s breakout isn’t just about gold. There’s a larger message that should be taken away from all of this, and that is that hard money, real assets have come back into favoring, and gold is the original hard asset. It’s scarce, it’s politically neutral, tens of thousands of years of monetary credibility, but it’s also heavy, difficult to move and awkward in a digital world. Now, of course you know where I’m going with that. I don’t wanna make every gold conversation conversation about Bitcoin, but just as a reminder, Bitcoin exists on that same philosophical access, right? Both gold and Bitcoin are reactions to the same problem. Expanding debt, monetary dilution, declining confidence and centralized control. Gold is the conservative, you know, version of that, the expression of that Bitcoin is the crazy youngster, the aggressive one. They’re, they’re following the same rails. And today Bitcoin trades around $86,000. It’s still volatile, still controversial, still misunderstood, and really, listen, the market cap is 2 trillion bucks. Um, you know, no asset that has ever reached $2 trillion. Market cap has ever gotten to zero. But on the other hand, there’s it, it’s pretty small, and you could still move those markets really quickly, and that’s why you’ve got volatility. But if gold surge is signaling a, a, a shift towards hard assets, it’s really hard to not see that. Uh, Bitcoin may simply be, uh, you know, early in that adoption curve. In other words, gold may be leading the parade. And if history is any guide, uh, when institutions start moving into that, you know, oldest form of sound money, they eventually begin exploring the newest. And that’s, that’s a signal. Worth paying attention to. Anyway, this week what we’re gonna really focus on though is gold and hard money. We’ll talk a little bit about Bitcoin as well. My guest is Dana Samuelson, who is. An old friend of the show, and we will have that conversation right after these messages. Wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbo charge your investments. Visit wealth formula banking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast ad Samuelson. He is been on the show before. He’s friend of the show. He is a professional. How do we see this numismatist since, uh, 1980. Working with some of the most influential, precious metals trading companies in the country. Before founding his own American Gold Exchange Incorporated in 1998. Uh, for nearly a decade, he was a personal protege of James U. Blanchard ii, one of the true giants of the industry, and the individual most responsible for re legalizing the private ownership of gold in the us. American Gold Exchange Inc. Is a national mail order, precious metals and rare coin dealership that makes competitive buy and sell markets in mainstream, modern, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, bullion coins and bars and classic pre 1933 US Gold and silver coins and World War ii European Gold coins. I don’t know if I left anything out, but welcome Dana. How are you doing? I’m doing great, buck. Thanks for having me back. I really appreciate it. Well, it was funny, we had a little conversation, uh, just before we started and I said, well, gosh, you know, uh, we’ve had you on the show before, maybe once, maybe twice. And, you know, and, and you, um, I think Apley described the gold market as watching paint dry. And I, I think that’s, I think that’s pretty adequate. Um, I mean, for, I mean, the last decade or so before this all happened. So, so let’s start talking about it. So, gold gold’s moved into price territory that, you know, very few people would’ve predicted even a couple years ago. So what, from your perspective, having lived lived through multiple gold cycles, what feels fundamentally different about this move? Uh, this market is a globally driven market and it’s focused on physical. There’s been a move into gold this year, and silver now platinum two. To a degree palladium, uh, in a physical level that we haven’t seen since the late seventies when we had the last really, you know, red hot market driven by fears over debt inflation. Geopolitics. Uh, you’ve got the bricks, nations that are trying to divorce themselves of the dollar, but they really can’t do it easily because there’s not a good viable alternative except for gold. And that’s been one of the leading drivers of this gold price surge that has really, you know, almost doubled in price since, uh, two years ago. A lot of it is, you know, underpinned by Central Bank Gold buying, you know, between 1950 and 2010, after the dollar became the world’s reserve currency backed by gold. And even after we un pegged the dollar to gold in the 1970s, 1971, central bankers had had gold on their, physically in their vaults from pre-World War ii when gold was money, uh, they shed that. From the 1950 all the way to 2010, they became net buyers after the great financial crisis due to the global debt explosion and primarily quantitative easing printing money outta thin air. But they were buy, they were modest buyers, you know, 500 tons a year until Russia invaded the Ukraine in 2022. And we sanctioned Russia and weaponized the dollar. The last four years, they bought, you know, almost a thousand tons of gold year or double. That really became material last year in price as the cumulative effects of their continually buying about a fifth of what the mines make every year started to really impact supplies and price movement. And now we’ve got President Trump this year, you know, throwing a monkey wrench into the World Trade order with his tariffs. And I think that that’s created a lot of uncertainty, some fear. And of course the debt just continues to go higher and higher. And now interest payments on our debt are over a trillion dollars for the first time ever. So debt servicing is starting to become problematic. The cumulative effects of all this have caused the, the people around the world, including central governments to buy gold at record rates. Um, but it’s not the phenomenon that’s happening in the United States. ’cause we don’t have a gold culture in our country, like almost every other country does. It’s interesting. Um, so what, you know, you’ve been talking about really is central banks around the world have it really been accumulating gold at levels we haven’t really seen in modern times. Right. And, and, uh, why do you think the US Central Bank. It doesn’t do the same because is it an admission of the debasement of the dollar? Because really the gold, gold is the anti dollar. I’ve always viewed it as the anti dollar maybe. Maybe that’s not the, you know, you may not agree with that a hundred percent, but I’ve always viewed it that way, and so why wouldn’t the US hedge and accumulate more? Well, we’re the world’s reserve currency. That Right. That’s, that’s created a paper culture in our, in our world. It’s now three generations old, right? Since 1945, when the dollar became the world’s reserve currency and we, the world went to a paper money standard instead of a gold money standard, which was the world’s standard from ancient times all the way till the 1930s. You know, the, our monetary system when the country was founded in 1793 was based on gold and silver coins. A copper penny was the size of a half dollar because that’s what one penny’s worth of copper was worth in 1793. Right. Um, you know, after World War ii, we had a couple things that the rest of the world didn’t have. We had a manufacturing, uh, industries that were, uh, unaffected by the, physically by the war. And we had, you know, the ability for markets to work properly, which should allow the dollar to become the world’s reserve currency. Backed by, you know, 8,200 some odd tons of gold, the biggest pile of gold that any country had. Actually, at that time it was more like 20,000 tons of gold. Uh, but by the time we got to the seventies and we un pegged from gold, we were down to about 8,000 tons. That’s still more than anybody else is supposed to have. I do think China could have more gold than that. Now they’re just not telling us they do. You know, officially they’ve got about 2,400 tons of gold, uh, and the second and third are, you know, 3000 tons of gold. So we, we still have a lot of gold. And there’s talk about auditing Fort Knox and monetizing it, but it only gets us about a trillion dollars. It’s not enough to really, you affect the 38 trillion, maybe pay the debt off for a year, or, you know, for six months. Six months, yeah. Something like that. Our, our debt is starting to matter too. You know, it’s doubled twice in the last 20 years. It gonna double again in the next 10 to 70 trillion, 78 trillion. People hear about the, the whole, uh, the bricks phenomena, right? And part of, part of what you were just discussing in the, uh, accumulation of gold. Explain that, explain what’s going on over there for people who aren’t paying attention, and you know how that is, how that is playing into all of this. Well, when we sanctioned Russia after they invaded the Ukraine. And seized their assets and threw them off of the Swift International Bank Transfer Payment System. We forced countries that were concerned that if they ran politically afoul of us, we could do the same to them. They forced them into thinking, oh, how do we get some independence from that vulnerability? Potential vulnerability? It’s not easy to replace the dollar. What they’ve, what they’ve been doing is replacing the Swift Bank transfer payment system with a payment transfer system of their own right so they can move money amongst themselves outside of the SWIFT system, number one. And since there isn’t a good viable alternative to the dollar, really the only other asset that makes sense is gold. Gold is a neutral asset. It’s not like you need it for oil or grain or steel. Nobody really needs gold, right? But it’s universally trusted. It’s immediately liquid, and it’s got a couple other things going for it that are unique. Number one, it has no counterparty risk. It’s one of the only assets. It isn’t simultaneously someone else’s liability. And number two, uh, gold in a vault can’t be seized or sanctioned. Right, so they’ve been going to gold, like they’ve been going to gold for, for centuries. It’s just, it hasn’t been that way since after World War ii. It’s a, it’s kinda like a back to the past kind of a situation. It’s sort of back to the future. It’s back to the past. That’s the allure for gold and the reason why they’re accumulating. In fact, they just launched their own currency unit called the unit. 40% backed by gold. The bricks nations have now it’s in its infancy and it’ll take a while for it to really, you know, work. But they’ve been building the components and the infrastructure to get to this point, creating the transfer of payment systems and all the components to go along with that so that they could announce something that they could use as a, as a settlement vehicle for trade, which is really what this is all about. And they’re backing at 40% by gold. Which is material and it’ll become bigger as time passes. Let’s, let’s try talk a little bit about that price movement. Huge. Um, is 60% in the last couple years, is that about right? This year alone, gold’s up 67% on a 12 month rolling basis, 67%. I mean, those are like bitcoin num, you know, type movements in the past. Right. They’re kind of crazy. So a lot of people are looking at those prices today and they’re thinking, well, I’m late to the party. Uh, are they late to the party? How do you, uh, what, what do you think’s going on there? I think the party’s about halfway through. We haven’t got to the late innings yet. I, I really do think this, and this is why this is the fourth major bull run in gold we’ve seen since we went off the gold standard in 1971. We had a a 20 to one run for gold in the seventies that was built on two oil shocks. 18% inflation and a crisis of confidence in the US then for the next 30 years. You know, 25 years a good part of my career. You know, watching gold was like watching paint dry. It traded routinely between three and $500 an ounce until we got into war, uh, following the nine 11 attacks, Iraq and I, Afghanistan, and we went into deficit spending. Then we had a second financial crisis when the great financial crisis hit another bull bull market in gold. Then we had COVID economic closures, another bull market in gold. Now we’ve got a fourth, but it’s lacking what the first three had, which was fear in the US over either economics or geopolitical events. So this gold price has essentially doubled since March or April of 2024. With no fear and a lot of complacency in the US markets. So my, my thinking is what happens if the economy slows down and, you know, the Fed’s gonna lower rates anyway. We know that’s coming with a new Fed chairman in the next five months, six months, number one, that’s good for gold. What happens if we go into a real economic slowdown and the Fed really has to drop rates, or God forbid, go to QE again, right? Or inflation rears its ugly head because the fed’s too accommodative in it. Situation where, you know, supplies are kind of tight still because of the monkey wrench, president Trump has thrown into the World Trade Order. You know, if we get fear in the US that’s when gold could go from 4,000 to, you know, 8,000. And I’m not saying that’s gonna happen, but I do think the trends have driven gold higher are not gonna change anytime soon. One of the things that you’re mentioning is those trends and like even. You know, in the last 15 years ago when I’ve been sort of involved in the investor world, the, the things that we talk about with trends with with gold have changed. I mean, usually you don’t see AI stocks going up with gold, right? Like, I mean, not that AI was around, but the point is tech stocks, that kind of thing. How is that thesis fundamentally changed? Um, I’m not quite sure I understand your question. Well, what I mean is like if gold was, gold used to be, I think it’s, you know, something again that people would buy when they were afraid of, of what’s going on in the equity markets. Right. Uh, that’s clearly not the case now. No, no, not at all. Right. Talk about that change. When did that change happen? How did it happen? This is a globally driven market. It’s not a US-centric market. This is fear around the world. You know, central banks started to underpin this market in 2022 when they stepped up their buying and doubled it. But this year, because of the uncertainty, uh, and some of the fear that President Trump’s tariffs and the way they’ve been deployed, kind of knee jerky, um, and inconsistently. Certainly not diplomatically, right? You know, it’s caused a lot of concern around the world. And for example, in April when President Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd, what happened? The bond market went into the complete dislocation, yields spiked from 4% to 4.5% in a week. The bond values tumble because investors started pulling money out of the, and taking it back home. Money that’d come in from Europe and Asia started to go back. So what did President Trump do? He pulled back the reciprocal tariffs on every country, but China and China said, well, we’re not gonna drop tariffs on you. And he said, well, we’ll ramp ’em up on you. So we went toe to toe with him. Until a week later, we were at 145% tariffs on China, and they were 125% on us. Well, if you’re a Chinese investor and you have real estate or stocks to invest in, and both of which have done badly since COVID or gold, what are you gonna do when your best customer suddenly says, Hey, we really don’t want your products, because that’s what 145% tariffs say to the Chinese. We don’t want your products. You can’t sell ’em here. You gotta go sell ’em somewhere else, but we’re their best customer. So they bought gold. They bought gold handover fist, and they drove the gold price up $500 by themselves during that month. That’s what I mean by fear outside of the us. Yeah. We don’t get it inside. Well, and and that’s fear outside of the markets too, right? I think that’s, that’s the fundamental shift I was trying to get at is true. It used to be that gold was, uh, gold would react on fear of the markets, but now there’s another level of fear, which is geopolitical. And it doesn’t seem like there’s any time soon that that’s gonna end. No, no. I, I, I’ve called it like a run on the bank only. It’s not a run on the bank of like George Bailey’s run on the bank and it’s a wonderful life. This is a run on the gold market, the physical gold and silver and platinum markets. That’s really what this is, and it’s a global rush to buy. And it’s not just central banks, it’s the public as well. Due to uncertainty, part of it’s fear of missing out now that we’ve had a big run in prices too. That’s FOMO in there too. That’s what I’m trying to, that’s part of what I was wondering too though, is like, you know, again, there’s people out there now who, um, are, are looking at this and they might even be listening to us going, gosh, yeah, it really makes sense and I happen to have no gold. What do I do? You know, what do I do now? Do I buy now? And, and I’ll, you know, and, and the next thing you know. I find out this was a frothy market and, and I’m down 20% for the next three years. I mean, that kind of thing. So I, I think it’s a, it is a tricky time, but, so that sort of, I guess, brings up when you think of gold, um, in a portfolio. I mean, you say, you’ve said in the past, it’s not about getting rich. Well, some people really did get rich this time. Uh, you said it’s about preserving wealth, right? So how should investors think about Gold’s role alongside stocks, real estate, and other assets right now? Well, even I think JP Morgan Chase has said this year, you know, instead of a 60 40 portfolio, you should have a 60 20 20 portfolio with 20% bonds and 20% precious metals. Gold in particular, because of what’s been happening. And now we don’t have a gold culture in our country, like most every other country does. So most Americans don’t get it. And that’s part of. We’ve ingrained because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and it insulates us from currency shocks in commodity pricing primarily. Uh, without that insulation, you know, they might think things a little bit differently, but you know, any good financial planner will say you should have a little bit of precious metals as part of your portfolio, uh, as a hedge against financial uncertainty. And it certainly worked perfectly well during the great financial crisis. And when COVID hit because. Gold tends to counter cyclically, perform in price against stocks and bonds, and it’s always liquid. Now, you’re a real estate investor, you understand real estate. What couldn’t you get in 2009 alone? Right? Bankers wouldn’t give anybody money, right? But if you had gold, you could get liquidity, right? And gold, you know, almost doubled between 2008 and 2011 at the same time when most assets were dropping 50%. That’s an insurance policy for the rest of your money. That’s why I said, look, it’s a way to preserve wealth and have a hedge against financial uncertainty. But in the market that we’re in now, you know, having more than just the, the minimum, which is five to 10% of assets as a, you know, potentially an investment instead of just an insurance policy. That makes sense. But you’re right, you could buy and you could, you know, tie up money that won’t produce anything for a couple years, maybe longer. You also have an insurance policy in case the wheels do come off like they did during the great financial crisis or during COVID. Yeah. Yeah. I was listening to, uh, another podcast. I listened to the, these, uh, guys, the All In podcast, and, uh, Tucker Carlson was on there, and apparently he’s a, you know, huge, uh, physical gold guy. And, and he said, and I, I think he was serious. He said he buries it in his backyard and then he spreads a bunch of, um. Uh, a bunch of, you know, silver beads, uh, out there too, like, just in case no one can like, use a medical metal detector and find it is gold. Uh, let’s talk about that nuance of, of physical gold versus, you know, buying ETFs and all that stuff. What’s your take? I mean, what, what do you tell people when they say, well, gosh, you know, uh, it might be hard for me to store that gold and, and why shouldn’t I just get an ETF and, and talk a little bit about that? Well, I trade ETFs in my IRA account. When I think the, when I think I can harness price movement, that’s what I use ETFs for. You know, they’re a paper representation of gold, uh, that you can trade at the click of a button, physical gold. Is valuable. It’s, you have to find a place to store it. It’s pretty inert, so you can, you can bury it in your backyard, keep the elements out of it, but then there’s some risk there because it could be found, it could be stolen, so you do have to store it somewhere. You can put it in a bank safe deposit box, but I don’t really recommend that because what happens if there’s a banking holiday and you can’t get to it? So having a home safe or maybe, you know, maybe bearing it in the backyard. Is an option if that’s what you wanna do. Or there are independent professionally run storage facilities. There’s a few of ’em around the country that are run by precious metals dealers that are, you know, big entities. Uh uh. So I think they’re trustworthy and they certainly have the ability to service and aren’t properly insured. So that if something happens, you know your value is protected. And that’s primarily what you pay for as a storage fee is a percentage of value. Not so much number ounces that you have there, but the value percentage, because it is an insurance, uh, related value, right? The value goes up, they’ve gotta get more insurance so they get a higher storage fee for that same amount of metal if the value increases, which is unlike other assets. So I do have a couple of those I recommend that are run by professional. Companies that have been in business for years that we know would trust and have performed perfectly. If you wanna store, um, physical metal now gold is compact. You know, a hundred ounces is smaller than a paperback novel and it’s $450,000 worth of value today. You could, I could literally have one bar in each one of my coat pockets and be walking around with almost a million bucks in my pockets, and no one would know. Silver. You know, silver creates a bigger problem because it takes 70 ounces of silver to equal an ounce of gold. So there’s a lot more volume involved and a lot more weight, which is why sometimes these facilities make more sense if you wanna store something that’s more bulky like silver. But if you’re gonna store gold somewhere, that’s not easy to find. You wanna make sure somebody you trust behind you knows where it’s just in case something happens to you. Right? Yeah. Um. What, um, how difficult is it, uh, Dana, for someone to, I guess, say they wanna sell, say maybe they need to sell one of those bricks in your pocket there? Uh, and, and, um, is that a, um, a process that, I mean, it’s, you know, it’s not as easy as clicking a button at that point, right? But to make sure that you get the best possible price for your gold and all that, I mean, you’re not gonna go to a pawn shop and. Oh, that, so like, I, I’m just curious on the mechanics of that. ’cause I’ve, you know, I’ve, I’ve never sold, you know, physical gold for anything. So, so our, our company’s a physical dealer. We’re a hybrid between Amazon and a financial institution. And that, uh, we sell something online or over the telephone. The price is always changing on a minute by minute basis, but it’s like you’re buying shoes. It’s just, you know, you don’t quite know what the price is gonna be. So we physically, you know, figure out which product you should purchase, what’s best for you, and then we ship it to you if you want to sell it, it’s just the reverse of the transaction. You have to present it for delivery, which means you have to ship it back to, uh, your dealer, or, you know, physically deliver to them, and you get paid immediately upon delivery. So, um, you know, we, we do business like a financial institution. You can call us up, place a transaction over the phone. Uh, if it’s a smaller transaction, we’ll do that without deposit funds. If it’s a bigger transaction, we don’t know, you will want funds first, but once we lock in, that’s the price. Just like when you buy stock and then you pay the balance or, or we ship you the merchandise, whichever comes first. Um. You get it, inspect it, make sure you, you got what you’re supposed to get. In fact, it, you know, in the last two years with this gold price just climbing higher and higher, we’ve got a lot of clients that are complacent. They like the stock market that’s been hitting record highs, uh, and they’ve been shedding gold. We’ve actually bought more gold as an industry, not just our company, but as an industry in the last year than we’ve bought in a single year in 20 years. So it’s very easy to reverse the transaction. But what I would tell you. For your listeners is, and this is important, you should buy sovereign minted products, gold ounces, silver ounces, one ounce gold coins. They’re really just round bars made by the US Mint, the Royal Canadian Mint, the British Royal Mint. The Austrian Mint instead of refinery made. One ounce bars or 10 ounce bars or kilo bars of gold because we have a modest but growing problem with Chinese counterfeits. The Chinese can take tungsten and plate it with gold and pass it off as reel, and they can do that much better with refinery made bars that have plain design pictures stamped onto them. They can replicate those very well, but they cannot replicate the intricate pictures. The US Mint or the Canadian Mint, or the Austrian mint, British royal mint stamp onto that one ounce gold coin. We call it a coin. It’s just a round bar made by a mint that struck with dyes like a coin. And all of the mints around the world have introduced minute anti-counterfeiting design elements into the picture that they stamp on their coins to deter Chinese counterfeits. And it’s working. So the most important thing is, you know, do business with a reputable dealer that’s been around a long time, that has a good reputation, not a, not some new entity, right? You wanna find a, a trusted member of the community and develop a relationship that makes buying again or selling very easy. Once you have a relationship with a dealer, and we know the product you’ve purchased, we’ll take it back very easily. Uh, silver is, you know, people talk a lot about it in the context of, you know, the lump it with gold but has very different characteristics. Um, how do you think about silver today? I love silver today. Uh, it’s, it’s a metal at times as hard to love because every time it makes a big gain, it can give it up pretty easily. It’s more volatile than gold, but gold’s about 90% monetary metal in 10%. Commodity metal silver’s about 50 50, but what silver has going for it is, uh, a couple of unique characteristics that virtually no other metal comes, uh, as close to, which is conductivity of heat and electricity. Silver is amazing in that it’s the best at conducting both heat and electricity. I’ve got a one ounce silver coin on my desk here, and if you take this coin and hold it between your fingers and take an ice cube. You can literally cut that ice cube in half in about 6, 7, 8 seconds with a pure silver coin because the heat from your fingers gets transmitted to the coin and goes right through the ice cube. That’s just a simple example of how conductive silver is for temperature, and we have a structural supply deficit in the silver market that we’ve had for about five years now, where the industry. Is consuming more silver than comes out of the ground on an annual basis. So we’re eating into the above ground supply. Uh, so fundamentally that’s the supply and demand equation favor silver. Uh, plus because gold is moved up so much in price, silver is getting a rotation into it because it’s underperformed relative to gold until just recently where it’s played catch pretty sharply in just the last three or four months. If you measure. How many ounces of gold, uh, how many ounces of silver it takes to equal an ounce of gold, the gold to silver ratio back in April. That was a hundred to one, you know, which was an extreme. Today that ratio is a, is a little under 70 to one. It’s 67, 68 to one. So silver has played up in ketchup in price. Where is that historically? Uh, well. Normally it’s between about 40 to one and 80 to one with about 60 to one as the, as the pivot point where it’s in, they’re in equilibrium. But in the last four or five years with gold leading and silver lagging, we’ve routinely been in the 85 to 90 to one range. Uh, and we actually hit a hundred to one in April of this year, uh, which was the highest it’s been, um, except for when we had a kind of a knee jerk in the medals during COVID, which was an anomaly. Uh, didn’t last. So, but anyway. Silver is playing ketchup because it’s been undervalued relative to gold. Um, and we’ve seen, you know, people that wanna be in the metals, but think gold’s a little expensive. They’ve rotated out of gold, and we’ve seen some of that money move into silver and also into platinum. Now, platinum was under a thousand dollars this time of year ago, and it’s almost $1,900 announced today. So it’s almost platinum’s up, uh, almost a hundred percent now. This year where silver’s up 120% this year and a lot of this demand is driven globally. We’ve seen huge demand in silver in India this year because gold is so, has become so expensive, and that’s what I mean by a global run on the, on the bank. It’s not just China, Japan, it’s India too, and Europe as well. Physical buying and et f buying ETFs are available around the world in precious metals now that really haven’t been very impactful until this year. Um, but that’s what the world’s doing, you know? No discussion these days on gold is complete without at least mentioning Bitcoin. Uh, you know, and, and it’s, it’s interesting because, um, you know, even within the, uh, uh, gold world, I mean, there’s, there’s some prominent people who are really bought in to Bitcoin. Like I, Lawrence Lepert has been on the show multiple times now, and Larry’s all in. Um, just curious as a, you know, as a gold person, what do you see where, what do you see the role or do you not believe in this thing? Do you believe it is a, a parallel? Um, I, there’s so many things that you say about gold. That I’m like, yeah, you can say that about Bitcoin too and carry, you know, millions of dollars in your pocket. You can, you know, it’s, uh, there’s a very little amount of it. Um, obviously it’s new, right? Gold has been around for, since the beginning of time and, and now we’ve got 2009 for Bitcoin. What is your view? How are you seeing it? May, how are your colleagues seeing it in the gold space? Well, a couple different points to make here. Um, you know, when, when Bitcoin came out in 20 10, 20 11, you know, one of my friends in the, in the precious metals business told me I should buy it when it was 20 bucks and I didn’t get it. So I didn’t do it, and that was a big mistake on my part. But Bitcoin has one advantage that no other currency or gold has, which you can move serious money over borders easily. You’re right, you can carry it around in your pocket, in your wallet and, um, you know, you carry a lot of value around and transfer it at the, you know, click of a button. And no co counterparty risk, just like you said with gold, right? Yeah. Well, there’s some modest counterparty risk with, with bitcoin that you, you have counterparty risk with gold and theft as well. Um. Bitcoin is volatile. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s very volatile. It’s still the speculative investment. I mean, it was 124,000, you know, four months ago, and now it’s about 85,000, 90,000. So there’s volatility there that gold doesn’t have. But more importantly, what I’ve seen in my career is a generational divide. The older, older people, you know, 45 and older, like gold and silver. Younger people that grew up with phones in their hands like Bitcoin. The volatility in Bitcoin that we’ve seen in these two big selloff cycles in Bitcoin have not the first one, but the second one have helped to bring some of those younger people into the stability of gold, especially in the year when gold is doing pretty well. ’cause it then it kind of has a little bit of that Bitcoin allure, which is, you know, get rich quick. But, um. Bitcoin’s volatile, but it’s here to stay and it is now the most respected cryptocurrency. Like I almost bought Ethereum, you know, 10 years ago when one of my friends was explaining both to me and said that Ethereum basically had better fundamentals. But you know, it’s kind of inventing, it’s kinda like investing in a. What, uh, beta, beta max instead of VHS back in the day. Some of the older people remember that. You bet on the wrong horse, you know? Yeah, exactly. Well, you’ve, uh, you know, you built this, uh, firm on transparency, integrity, uh, in an industry that doesn’t always have the best reputation. Right? So for investors who decide that precious metals belong in their portfolio. Uh, how can they get a hold of you? Well, our website is, uh, A-M-E-R-G-O-L d.com. Uh, we don’t have, you know, 10,000 items on our website. We have a, we have a small listing of what available products are because we stick with mainstream items, products that are primarily easy to sell, uh, competitively priced, widely traded, and easily understood. Um, uh. Uh, email address is info I nfo@amggold.com. Uh, we have a toll, toll free number 806 1 3 9 3 2 3. Uh, we’re consultative in nature. We’ll, we’ll answer any questions. Happily, gladly, uh, no transactions too small or too large. What we really wanna do, uh, is help people because if we do that, we help ourselves. And when you treat people right, it, it comes back. And our industry does have a chair of bad actors. And, um, you, you wanna make sure that you do business with someone reputable that’s been in the industry a long time. And I understand some people may wanna do this locally where they can actually walk into a place of business. Do this instead of over the phone. So look for dealers that have, you know, longstanding, uh, businesses and good reputations. If you see a reputation that, uh, has some complaints, you know, there are other choices for you. But, um, we just try and help people buck. That’s really what we try and do. We certainly have the reputation for it. Dana. So thank you so much for being on Wellfor podcast. Well, thanks for having me. It’s great to see you again, and I wish you a great success in 2026 and a happy holiday season. You too. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to Show England. Hope you enjoyed it and, uh, I will. Uh, I should admit though, that if you go back and you listen on my, uh, past shows, this is one that I was wrong on. I, I’ve never been a gold bug. My biggest issue with gold. Um, has always been, you know, from an investment thesis that it doesn’t really do anything, doesn’t yield anything, and what’s the point of owning it rather than owning, uh, real estate. And actually, if you just look at what I said, it’s, it’s still, it’s still, it’s still kind of true, right? I mean, you can argue, well, yeah, the real estate markets really did, uh, did struggle over the last couple years. But listen, at the end of the day. The real estate market struggled because of leverage, right? Gold. There’s no leverage, no one’s borrowing, buying gold on leverage, and so it can go up and down and it doesn’t really hurt anybody. If you take the last couple decades and you know how much people made from, uh, real estate versus Bitcoin, even though there’s this huge, uh, huge uptick in Bitcoin now it’s, it’s probably the case that they come out pretty close. If not, uh, you know, real estate still being the winner. But anyway, uh, I do want to say and admit that I was wrong. That, uh, that the gold wasn’t really worth, uh, owning. I think, uh, you know, I wish I had owned some, just like a lot of people wish they’d own Bitcoin at $6,000, right? Um, in fact, I will say that one of the things in hindsight that I think of is gold in many ways for the last several years was on sale. And I haven’t really been talking about this as much, but I’ve been reflecting on this a great deal about making sure that as an investor you wake yourself up once in a while and ask, okay, well, what’s on sale? Well, gold was on sale for a while. Silver was definitely on sale. Right? Um, doesn’t mean you have to go in, have, you know, 50% of your portfolio in something like that, but when something’s on sale, it’s not a bad idea to look around. And maybe get, you know, get a little bit of exposure. I do think that real estate is there right now. I think real estate, you know, if you’re in the credit investor group, you’re seeing on a routine basis 30%, uh, discounted offerings from just a couple years ago. And I do think that’s on sale right now. But there are other things as well, arguably. I mean, I, I actually think that Bitcoin is, uh, uh, sort of on sale right now. I mean, sitting at 86,000, anybody who thinks it’s not gonna go to a hundred thousand at some point in the next, you know, 12 months is, I mean, I think it’s highly unlikely that it doesn’t go to a hundred thousand, right? So think about that right now. That’s like a 14% gain right then and there. Anyway, sometimes it’s good to just look around and see what’s on sale. Uh, that’s my message for this week. Uh, this is Buck Joffrey with Wealth Formula Podcast signing off. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.
Trial Lawyer and leading communication expert JEFFERSON FISHER reveals how gaslighting and narcissism work, why people don't listen to you, and the courtroom tricks for respect and power! Jefferson Fisher is a Texas trial lawyer and leading communication expert. He is the founder of Fisher Firm, creator of The Jefferson Fisher School of Communication, and author of the book, “The Next Conversation: Argue Less, Talk More”. He explains: ◼️The fastest way to spot a narcissist in under 30 seconds ◼️The phrase that instantly exposes gaslighting ◼️Why people stop respecting you mid conversation ◼️The courtroom trick that makes people listen ◼️How to control any conversation without raising your voice 00:00 Intro 02:56 These Communication Skills Will Change Your Life and Career Trajectory 09:40 How to Have Control Over Conversations 12:14 The Psychology Behind Feeling Comfortable in Any Conversation 15:42 How Your Body Language Can Influence Others' Opinions 20:38 The Traits of Confident People 22:40 Dealing With Difficult Conversations and Gaslighters 24:38 The Words Gaslighters Use Against You 31:00 The Attachment Style Most at Risk of Being Gaslighted 39:19 This Is What Manipulators and Narcissists Do 42:55 How to Stop a Narcissist 49:15 Your Reactions Reveal So Much About You 51:21 How to Stop Being Easily Triggered 55:00 How Being Honest With People Can Help You 01:00:34 How Our Parents' Arguments Shaped Our Love Relationships 01:15:19 Find Your Priorities and Set Your Boundaries 01:17:20 People Pleasers 01:23:01 Relationship Arguments: Can They Be Good? 01:25:24 A Big Indicator That Something Really Matters to Your Partner 01:33:19 The Secret to Spot Anyone Being Fake 01:34:58 The Fake Laughs 01:42:05 These Small Moments Will Have the Biggest Impact on Impressions 01:53:30 Top 5 Things to Become the Best Communicator at Anything 02:03:02 Phones Have Become Our Pacifier to Relieve Anxiety 02:04:25 Stop Overexplaining 02:08:11 The Power of Taking Pauses to Think 02:10:50 One of the Best Traits of Leaders 02:17:43 How to Help Someone Grieving 02:27:09 The Counterattack to Bullies: Expose Them 02:34:22 Huge Relationship Unlock: Energy Checking With Your Parent 02:40:16 The Predictor of Whether a Relationship Will Last Follow Jefferson: Instagram - https://bit.ly/4pzxZ21 Facebook - https://bit.ly/4rUhTS6 TikTok - https://bit.ly/4aihiDv YouTube - https://bit.ly/3YplSIG You can pre-order ‘The Next Conversation Workbook', here: https://amzn.to/3XSHOvH The Diary Of A CEO: ◼️Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/ ◼️Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook ◼️The 1% Diary is back - limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt ◼️The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition) - https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb ◼️Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt ◼️Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: Adobe - https://Adobe.Ly/OneBetter Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/DOAC Stan: NO PURCHASE NECESSARY. VOID WHERE PROHIBITED. For Official Rules, visit https://DaretoDream.stan.store
Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.See full show notes here
Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how current market conditions are challenging traditional investment strategies and what that means for asset allocation.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.Today – does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense, and what can investors expect from long-term market returns?It's Monday, December 22nd at 10am in New York.Global equities have rallied by more than 35 percent from lows made in April. And U.S. high grade fixed income has seen the last 12 months' returns reach 5 percent, above the averages over the last 10 years. This raises important questions about future returns and how investors might want to adapt their portfolios.Now, our work shows that long-run expected returns for equities are lower than in previous decades, while fixed income – think government bonds and corporate bonds – still offers relatively elevated returns, thanks to higher yields.Let's put some numbers to it. Over the next decade, we project global equities to deliver an annualized return of nearly 7 percent, with the S&P 500 just behind at 6.8 percent. European and Japanese equities stand out, potentially returning about 8 percent. Emerging markets, however, lag at just about 4 percent. On the bond side, we think U.S. Treasuries with a 10-year maturity will return nearly 5 percent per year, German Bunds nearly 4 [percent], and Japanese government bonds nearly 2 [percent]. They may sound low, but it's all above their long-run averages.But here's where it gets interesting. The extra return you get for taking on risk – what we call the risk premium – has compressed across the board. In the U.S., the equity risk premium is just 2 percent. And for emerging markets, it's actually negative at around -1 percent. In very plain terms, investors aren't being paid as much for taking on risk as they used to be.Now, why is this the case? It's because valuations are rich, especially in the U.S. But we also need to put these valuations in context. Yes, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is near the highest level since the dotcom bubble. But the quality of the S&P 500 has improved dramatically over the past few decades. Companies are more profitable, and free cash flow -- money left after expenses -- is almost three times higher than it was in 2000. So, while valuations are rich, there's some justification for it.The lower risk premiums for stocks and credits, regardless of whether we think they are justified or not, has very interesting read across for investors' multi-asset portfolios. The efficient frontier – meaning the best possible return for any given level of portfolio risk – has shifted. It's now flatter and lower than in previous years. So, it means taking on more risk in a portfolio right now won't necessarily boost returns as much as before.Now, let's turn our attention to the classic 60/40 portfolio – the mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds that's been a staple strategy for generations. After a tough 2022, this strategy has bounced back, delivering above-average returns for three years in a row. Looking ahead, though, we expect only around 6 percent annual returns for a 60/40 portfolio over the next decade versus around 9 percent average return historically. Importantly though, advances in AI could keep stocks and bonds moving more in sync than they used to be. If that happens, investors might benefit from increasing their equity allocation beyond the traditional 60/40 split.Either way, it's important to realize that the optimal mix of stocks and bonds is not static and should be revisited as market dynamics evolve.In a world where risk assets feel expensive and the old rules don't quite fit, it's essential to understand how risk, return, and correlation work together. This will help you navigate the next decade. The 60/40 portfolio isn't dead – and optimal multi-asset allocation weights are evolving. And so should you.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.