Climate in the Southwest

We have updated our iTunes podcast feed: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/climas-southwest-climate-podcast/id1215891654 Please change your subscription! In the June 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring.  Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.

We have updated our iTunes podcast feed to https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/climas-southwest-climate-podcast/id1215891654 - please update! In the May 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Zack Guido is back and sits down with Mike Crimmins to do a recap of the winter that was (or in some ways, wasn't), the current and recent conditions in the Southwest (including fire weather and fire conditions), and a look forward to what we can expect from the "fire and brimstone" season that is already building (with just a hint of a monsoon discussion to keep Zack feeling sane).

We'll keep this feed updated for now, but be sure to subscribe on the new iTunes feed here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/climas-southwest-climate-podcast/id1215891654 In this mini-episode of the SW Climate podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan take a quick spin around the "snow-eater" temps of March, plus a brief comment on fire conditions. As a note: this was recorded before the SawMill Fire started in late April, so the discussion is on March conditions, and some commentary on early April Fire events (Shovel, Molino Basin). it might seem obvious now, but around 8 minutes in, but Mike hits the conditions that led to the SawMill fire pretty nicely. We'll have a full length podcast next week with Mike and Zack.

In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West. They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions, as well as the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought in short and long term. They also discuss the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest - with a mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions.  They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought), a look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, and a look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.

In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes. They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes) Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July, and the patterns and circulation that drives these (inevitable) breaks, but recognizing that after such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale. Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house since we recorded, and as such, he is in an excellent mood.

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) current conditions or forecasts that have already taken place (at time of publishing).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including: -The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, -A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis, and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño -An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and -An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon).

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest. They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January, and put this into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone. They also discuss the similarities of the current preciptation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year - They point out we're not in a La Niña yet..but that forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year. They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions. We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.

In this episode, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year. They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months. We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality, but it seems to be mostly fixed. Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February.

In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, especially as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry to explain day to day events in terms of where they fit into larger climate patterns. They go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what later this Winter is likely to hold in store (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!).

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one particular system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.

In this episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer). In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming). In part 2, they talk about the nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity, on the overall monsoon. They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of each year of the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live each summer as we watch the monsoon unfold.

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event. Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal? We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season. They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.

In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins: --Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015 --Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and --Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon. We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!). We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest.

In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions. The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns. They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months.

We'll have a full episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast next week, but we wanted to take a quick run through the anomalous weather we saw in Mid/Late May and Early June. In this mini-version of the SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan go over the patterns we saw during this (admittedly beautiful) weather, before talking a bit about what this means looking towards the rest of the summer.

In the May 2015 Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins reconvene to talk about the Winter patterns that fed into our current situation, and how it has actually been pretty moist and cool (for this time of year) after a very warm winter. They then turn back to El Niño - which despite being hard to predict, forecast, or describe - has given us a lot to think about in terms of how this spring is similar to last year in some respects, but very different from 2014 in others. They exercise some warranted caution in putting too much stock in forecasts given the "excitement" surrounding a strong El Niño event, but the patterns in place are suggesting this enthusiasm might not be misplaced. They move on to talk about how El Niño may affect tropical storm activity and monsoon patterns looking into Summer and Fall 2015, as well as the impacts of last year's monsoon (and this springs mild weather) on fire season. Drought and water availaiblity present a less optimistic scenario, however - as below average winter precipitation and above average winter temperatures for most of the west mean snowpack is well below average going into the summer, with implications for water storage and availability.

We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.

In the March Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back from his world travels (for work!) and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss SW climate, including winter precipitation, snowpack, and temperature reports so far. They also dive into the "warm in the west, cold in the east" pattern, and talk jetstream, polar vortex, and digging troughs as it pertains to SW weather patterns. Next up is the (finally arriving!) El Niño, which is a bit late, and a bit weak, but there are interesting aspects of this year to consider looking into the next year, especially the persistent ridge that has helped drive the patterns of the past few months. Finally they wrap up by looking into next year regarding what's left of winter, and what 2015 may have in store.

We're trying something new with our podcast series. The regular monthly Southwest Climate Podcast will not change format or timing, and Mike, Zack, and Ben will continue to bring you monthly updates on SW climate issues. But we wanted to expand our focus to something a bit broader than just the Southwest, and to take advantage of the numerous people who are living and breathing work on climate science, communciation, outreach, education, and engagement on a daily basis. To that end - the first episode - in what we hope is a long running series - is an interview that Dan Ferguson (CLIMAS program director) conducted with Dr. Susanne Moser, during the time she was visiting Tucson as a CCASS Distinguished Visiting Fellow in early 2015. In a free flowing conversation Dan and Susi discuss the state of climate research, alternative or creative ways to engage people or even to think about climate and society, the power of social change, the challenges/rewards of working in this field, and perspectives on future directions for research, education, and engagement. For now, these episodes will be embedded within the SW Climate Podcast Feed, so if you're not interested, you can skip this until next months podcast, but we think this conversation offers a lot of insight into Susi's perspectives on climate science and communication, as well as possible solutions moving forward.

In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss the state of the climate in 2014, including the record year for Arizona and the near record year for New Mexico. They also talk about weather systems that affected our most recent temperature and precipitation patterns, the ongoing uncertainty with El Niño, or as as some have started referring to it, "El Limbo", and the state of precipitation and drought in the southwest. They wrap things up looking at the seasonal outlooks and the projected trends for the coming year.

In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward.

In the October Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the 2014 monsoon, focusing on the influence of tropical storm systems, record and near-record precipitation events, monsoon intensity and duration, and the ever-present promise of El Niño.

In the September Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about tropical storm climatology, details about Norbert and Odile, explore the details of the "Kelvin Wave", and answer a question about El Niño models submitted by a listener.

In the August Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about variability and timing of monsoon precipitation, and why frequent and sustained moisture might matter more than heavy infrequent rains (for drought, especially). El Niño is still dragging its heels, but it still looks good for a weak to moderate event this winter. Interspersed throughout, Zack and Mike answer questions submitted by listeners, including "weather" vs. "climate" and how the monsoon is a good way to think about this distinction, and whether the monsoon and El Niño can really help with a long term drought. If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/climasprogram)

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido speaks with Alan Forrest, Director of Tucson Water, about various strategies that Tucson implemented to deal with potential water shortages, the conservation and recapture efforts that areas of municipalities in Southern Arizona, and the practical realities of providing municipal water to an growing population in the southwest.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido talks to Dennis Rule, manager of the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District (CAGRD), about the importance of CAGRD in the management of Arizona groundwater and potential impacts on the system from continued drought in the Colorado River Basin.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido and Mohammed Mahmoud, planning analyst with the Colorado River Programs department at the CAP, discuss the Central Arizona Project (CAP) and its role in delivering Colorado River water throughout Arizona, as well as how a shortage would impact the CAP system.

In the July Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about the solid start to the monsoon and seemingly inevitable breaks in the monsoon (like we just experienced). They also discuss the "inevitability" of the formation of this fickle El Niño event. There’s a bit of a feeling of Groundhog Day with these forecasts—and there continues to be uncertainty regarding the strength and duration of this El Niño event.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido hosts three University of Arizona experts, Bonnie Colby, George Frisvold and Kiyomi Morino, to discuss water supply and demand in the Colorado River basin. This podcast explores stressors on the Colorado River Basin, how these stressors may change over time, and how these changes may affect management and behaviors across the Southwest.

In this episode, we take a broad view of the Colorado River Basin, exploring how the river is managed, who uses the water, and what a potential shortage could mean for the system. Our guest is Doug Kenney, Director of the Western Water Policy Program, a division of the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy and the Environment, at the University of Colorado School of Law.

In the June Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the ongoing drought conditions (especially at Mike's house), the recent slowdown of a seemingly inevitable El Niño event, and potential impacts of a climate collision between the El Nino and the Monsoon. The next 6 months will be interesting…

CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the recent rain and snow in the Southwest within the context of the record dry and warm winter, as well as the dramatically warming Pacific Ocean that increasingly hints at an upcoming El Niño

In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the scant precipitation in recent months across the West and the role of the "ridiculously resilient ridge" - a persistent area of high pressure parked off the West Coast – in steering storms away from the region.

CLIMAS climate scientists discuss September's extreme soggy weather and its role in busting drought (or not) in the Southwest and whether climate change's finger print can be seen in the recent storms.

In the August Podcast JJ Brost, Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service in Tucson, and Dr. Mike Crimmins join Zack Guido for a look at monsoon precipitation in the Southwest through August.

The monsoon is here! Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins, and guest speaker J.J. Brost from the National Weather Service discuss the mechanics behind the monsoon, what we can expect from the rest of the season, and the mechanics behind fires starting at the beginning of the monsoon, such as the Yarnell fire near Prescott.

What has been the character of the past "decade of drought" in AZ and NM? Can we still expect to see a large wildfire season? What are the climate models showing for this year's monsoon? Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer these questions and much more in this month's episode.

What can we expect from the fast-approaching fire season? Is it too early to say anything about this year's monsoon season? Learn the answers to these and other questions in this month's Southwest Climate Podcast.

In this month's Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins, and Gregg Garfin discuss how this winter has influenced the status of drought, the snowpack situation, and streamflow forecasts across both Arizona and New Mexico.

In this edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido discusses a 470-year tree-ring reconstruction of the Southwest Monsoon with Dan Griffin, PhD candidate in the UofA Geography department and author of the recently published record.

Was the "blizzard" in February unprecedented for Arizona, and did climate change play any role? In this month's podcast, Gregg Garfin and Zack Guido discuss this and the influence the storm and recent temperatures had on the state's snowpack. They also explore the status of drought in both Arizona and New Mexico, and what the precipitation forecast looks like for the next few months.

Why was the Southwest so cold in January? What's this buzz phrase "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" mean? Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss this and much more in this month's Southwest Climate Podcast.

In this month's episode, Zack Guido, Gregg Garfin, and Mike Crimmins discuss the status of drought in the Southwest region, current snowpack conditions, and what we can expect from the coming months.