Podcasts about southern oscillation

Hello Interactors,Welcome to summer where Interplace turns its attention to physical geography and the environment. It's already a crazy El Niño — thanks in large part to global warming — and the United States is having a big birthday. How might these be related and what to do about it?What follows is not a celebration or a condemnation, but more of a reckoning. I look at what was built, what was deliberately forgotten, and what is now continually arriving, season by season, in forms of weather the founders could not have imagined.Although Alexander Humboldt — one of the world's most famous scientists at the time — did warn Jefferson of the effects of human-induced climate change in 1804. He based his prediction on changes he observed in forests and water systems as a result of mono-crops and industrial “steam and gas”. Jefferson ignored him.BUILDING, BURNING, BILLOWING BACKOn this momentous 250th Fourth of July, when the world is experiencing record level extreme weather events, let's reflect on how over the last 250 years the United States helped build, extract, and then burn the material and political conditions that made climate change possible. From the beginning, it tied itself to land, extraction, mobility, and expansion. Over time those commitments became an energy system built on coal, oil, gas, highways, suburbs, industrial agriculture, and a development model that treated nature as an inexhaustible storehouse. That legacy is now legible in the atmosphere itself. Let's light a Roman Candle in celebration!Even before the 4th of July fireworks celebrations create another nationwide 42% average increase in fine particulate matter (Seidel, et al., 2015), the United States bears the single largest share of cumulative historical CO₂ emissions of any nation . We represent roughly 20 percent of the global total since 1850 contributing approximately 0.2°C of warming to date (Carbon Brief, 2021; UNEP, 2023). To represent four percent of the world's current population and be responsible for nearly a fifth of its cumulative warming is not a coincidence of geography or fake news. It is the outcome of deliberate choices about how a republic would be organized, energized, and expanded across two and a half centuries.The United States has long imagined freedom in spatial terms: movement, property, settlement, mastery, frontier, and circulation. Those abstract ideals were made real through land theft and remade landscapes, as well as through infrastructure built in significant part by African and African American enslaved labor. Each step along the way depended on ever-greater throughput of energy, labor, and material. In that sense, the country's history is also a history of how thought became organized around extraction and exploitation, until those thoughts and actions themselves became a kind of common sense. But by the late nineteenth century and early twentieth centuries increased industrialization meant emissions grew. They surged during the postwar era and peaked in the early 2000s — a trajectory that maps almost exactly onto the spatial project of suburban expansion, highway construction, and fossil-fuel-dependent agriculture (Climate Change Tracker, 2024). Two-thirds of the country's cumulative warming impact derives from fossil CO₂ alone. The built environment of American freedom is as inseparable from the chemical footprint it left behind as a firecracker's scattered debris and carbon residue.This leaves us with a climate crisis that is not just the result of a few bad policy choices in the late twentieth century. We exist in a cumulative outcome of a long national project that normalized combustion as prosperity and treated atmospheric consequence as some distant abstraction. Kind of like turning up the radio to drowned out the sound of your car making a funny noise. The federal state government played a central role in this process. Not only through direct policy and subsidies, but through the development of roads, ports, power systems, agricultural regimes, and military logistics that expanded the scale of fossil dependence at every scale of national life.The fossil fuel industry understood this trajectory earlier than the public was permitted to know. A systematic analysis published in Science found that ExxonMobil's own scientists accurately projected and skillfully modeled global warming due to fossil fuel burning from as early as 1977. These projections are consistent with subsequent observations. And yet, for decades, the company publicly pushed doubt and denial (Supran, Rahmstorf, & Oreskes, 2023). Consequently, what America projects as “economic growth”, fueled enormously by the fossil fuel industry, is embedded not only in a collective national memory but in the scientific record.The irony is that America's confidence in its own permanence rested on a false sense of geography. The landscape seemed stable because the costs were displaced in the form of upstream mining, downstream pollution, hidden emissions, imported and exported harm, and deferred climate effects. The effects on the atmosphere made that displacement impossible to sustain. The ‘progress' that had been scattered across space and time returns as heat, drought, fire, flood, and increasingly volatile weather. We built a world in which the rewards of extraction were immediate while the penalties were delayed. Call it what you will — the climate crisis is just the debt of delay, dressed as disaster.KNOWING, NEGLECTING, NEUTERING KNOWLEDGEThe USA did not simply keep burning and expanding on autopilot. By the late twentieth century, it had also begun to lose the institutional capacity to understand what its own trajectory meant. The problem was no longer that the 1970's scientific picture Exxon had already portrayed was absent. The evidence was clear. By the early 1990s the United States had ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and formally accepted the goal of returning greenhouse-gas emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the decade.The barrier to progress was not ignorance, but a degraded relationship between knowledge and power. This was engineered in part by more fossil fuel industry campaigns to sow doubt about science it privately accepted. Historians of science Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway documented how a loose-knit network of industry-connected scientists ran effective campaigns to mislead the public on issues from tobacco to climate change. They exploited the media's tendency toward false balance and keeping controversy alive long after scientific consensus had been reached (Oreskes & Conway, 2010). The strategy was to make certainty seem uncertain, and it worked. For decades, political inaction persisted through every window of action that may have helped.By the mid-1990s, climate change had become legible enough for federal institutions to name, study, and plan around, but the machinery of governance was being bent in the opposite direction. Newt Gingrich and the Republicans who rose with him may not have invented anti-government politics, but they weaponized it. Curiously, through pro-governmental politics. While their rhetoric promised efficiency and modernization, in practice it often meant cutting staffs, weakening committees, abolishing subcommittees, and treating the legislature less as a site of deliberation than as a theater of permanent combat. After all, their own staffers affectionately referred to Gingrich and his wrecking crew as ‘jihadists' — even as those same politicians promulgated and attached that term as a slur toward Muslims. One of the most consequential acts of this period was the 1995 defunding of the Office of Technology Assessment. This was a bipartisan, independent body that had produced over 750 reports on complex scientific and technical questions since 1974, including major studies on energy policy, environmental risk, and the long-range consequences of atmospheric change. Gingrich had vowed to kill the OTA during his 1994 election campaign. He kept his promise, and with it eliminated one of Congress's primary mechanisms for converting scientific knowledge into durable legislative capacity (Wikipedia, Office of Technology Assessment; AAAS Science, 2019).A legislature cannot respond intelligently to a long-range atmospheric crisis if it has stripped away the very mechanisms designed to synthesize evidence, test assumptions, and tackle complex questions over time. What replaced deliberations mediated by experts was a vacuum quickly filled by industry lobbyists — the same industry that, amongst themselves, knew exactly what Gingrich was doing. Research on institutional dynamics in climate governance consistently finds that fragmented policy, weak intergovernmental coordination, and the erosion of technical capacity are among the most significant barriers to effective long-range climate action (Jaisridhar et al., 2025; Birchall, Bonnett, & Kehler, 2023).The thinning of Congress's own cognitive infrastructure in 1995 was a bureaucratic adjustment that disabled the country's capacity to govern on topics beyond the timescales and dimensions of a single administration. The political system was becoming less capable of converting recognition into sustained action precisely as the need for that conversion became most urgent. The United States not only helped create the conditions for warming but undermined its own capacity to govern the effects warming created. The atmosphere was warming and so was the willful weakening of the world's most powerful potential partner in planetary protection.CASCADES, CRISES, AND COMING TO TERMSWhat follows is not simply a warmer world, but a less legible and actionable one. Once a political system weakens its own capacity to think long-term, it becomes ill-equipped to face a future that arrives not as a single rupture but as a cascade of self-reinforcing disruptions. We've all experienced or read about hotter summers, fire, more erratic rainfall, stressed coasts, shifting storm tracks, and weather that no longer behaves as the old seasonal calendar once did. Anthropogenic warming is already increasing variability in frequency and severity of weather systems. This in turn can alter local precipitation variability, storm behavior, and the climatic conditions on which seasonal expectations have long depended (Robinson, 2021; Wang et al., 2017; Scher & Messori, 2019). In several regions, climate change is expected not only to shift average conditions but to change seasonal predictability itself — especially for rainfall — making the future harder to read through the calendars and risk assumptions modeled and built from the past (Le et al., 2023; Delsole et al., 2014).Even now, the atmosphere offers a live demonstration of this instability. On June 11, 2026, NOAA officially declared that El Niño has arrived — with a 63 percent probability of reaching “very strong” intensity, defined as sea surface temperature anomalies of at least +2°C in the equatorial Pacific. This would rank it among the largest events in the historical record (NOAA, 2026). What makes 2026 categorically different from prior super events is not just its projected intensity but its baseline. This El Niño begins from the warmest ocean temperatures in human history, layered onto anthropogenic warming that has already pushed the planet to 1.55°C above preindustrial levels.As one paper argued in April, the El Niño is the accelerant; the fuel was already stacked (Hansen et al., 2026). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has placed an 86 percent probability on at least one year between 2026 and 2030 surpassing 2024 as the warmest on record, with 2027 — when El Niño's thermal lag typically produces its most extreme global signals — as the most likely candidate (WMO, 2026).When that variability is layered onto long-term warming, the result is not just discomfort but a deeper erosion of climatic predictability. ENSO — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that drives El Niño's periodic warming and its counterpart La Niña's cooling across the tropical Pacific — is not a new phenomenon, but its behavior is changing. Model evidence indicates that ENSO-related rainfall variability is likely to intensify and shift eastward under greenhouse warming, creating more severe and sometimes novel climate conditions across the terrestrial tropics (Cai et al., 2021; Rifai, Li, & Malhi, 2019). The question is no longer whether the climate will change, but how many of the social and political structures built on climatic regularity can survive that change.Climate change is often presented as a technical or environmental problem to be solved. Especially amidst a culture of pervasive techno-optimism. But climate change is way more fundamental than this. It's a reordering of the relationship between how we need to think and the geography in which we exist. This includes political geography and a reordering of political imagination as it relates to physical geography. The old originally envisioned republic of the USA assumed that land could be mastered, seasons could be predicted, and institutions could absorb shock without losing coherence. Those assumptions no longer hold.The old assumption that infrastructure could be planned around stationary baselines is increasingly at odds with the evidence. We can already see how energy systems show measurable vulnerability to climatic uncertainty and extremes. Modeled systems evidence declines in reliability and large performance gaps when future weather variation is not adequately incorporated into planning (Perera et al., 2020; Ouyang et al., 2023).As a result, the challenge ahead is not adaptation to these changes in the narrow sense, but reconstruction of our relationship to them in the broad sense. This may seem impossible in today's American political system, but truly Democratic societies will need stronger scientific institutions, more durable legislative capacity, and trustworthy public agencies able to interpret risk before disaster becomes routine. They will need not only infrastructure, but intelligence. Embodied intelligence — embodied engagement with physical and social environments rather than as a purely singular-brain augmented by LLM computation. This includes a renewed ability to gather, preserve, and act on knowledge over long horizons.The literature on adaptation governance is clear that resilience depends on organizational learning, intergovernmental collaboration, inclusive planning, and long-term institutional capacity. Short-term, reactive, market or donor-driven interventions that respond to emergencies without building the durable frameworks that prevent them won't work (Birchall et al., 2026; Rahman & Islam, 2024). What this means practically is the reconstitution of the kind of congressional expertise that was dismantled in 1995. We need not merely revive the OTA but to imagine a broader democratic intelligence infrastructure capable of thinking on the timescales that climate change demands — decades, generations, and centuries. Without that, climate change will continue to be experienced as a succession of emergency, political, or market conditions rather than as a governable transformation.We can do this. After all, a country that once imagined itself through movement, expansion, and mastery made a certain kind of freedom seem natural. A new kind of freedom can be made to seem natural too. But right now our current system returns prosperity for many — but heat, flood, instability, and constraint for all. What was built now must be lived within — good and bad — while what was extracted must now live in the atmosphere — all bad. What gets burned today, will burn more later. The political order that was built through extraction, combustion, and territorial expansion must confront the atmospheric and hydrological consequences of those choices.That confrontation will only intensify. Past century's cumulative emissions have already committed the planet to changes that will outlast any government, living generation, or institution that exists. Including you and me. The next 250 years will belong less to societies that imagine escape than to those that can build the institutional intelligence, infrastructural redundancy, and long-term public capacity required to inhabit a less legible and hospitable climate (Ouyang et al., 2023; Jaisridhar et al., 2025).So, as you watch the rocket's red glare and bombs bursting in air — sending even more smoke, chemicals and debris everywhere — know the flag will still be there. But to endure, it must repair an institution to be once again knowledgeable and fair.ReferencesBirchall, S. J., Villeneuve, K., Rose, D., Baran, N. N., & Adams, S. (2026). Exploring the modifying effects of adaptive capacity on resilience to climate change across 4 coastal cities in British Columbia, Canada. Cities.Birchall, S. J., Bonnett, N. L., & Kehler, S. (2023). The influence of governance structure on local resilience: Enabling and constraining factors for climate change adaptation in practice. Urban Climate.Cai, W., McPhaden, M., Grimm, A., Rodrigues, R., Taschetto, A., Garreaud, R., … Vera, C. (2020). Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J., … Zhong, W. (2021). Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.Carbon Brief. (2021). Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change?Climate Change Tracker. (2024). United States of America: Historic contribution to global warming since 1850.Delsole, T., Yan, X., Dirmeyer, P., Fennessy, M., & Altshuler, E. (2014). Changes in seasonal predictability due to global warming. Journal of Climate.Holgate, C., Evans, J., Taschetto, A., Gupta, S. A., & Santoso, A. (2022). The impact of interacting climate modes on east Australian precipitation moisture sources. Journal of Climate.Jaisridhar, P., Nirosha, R., Jasimudeen, S., Senthilkumar, M., Ponsneka, I., & Raja, P. (2025). Institutional dynamics in climate change adaptation: A bibliometric analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science.Le, P., Randerson, J., Willett, R., Wright, S., Smyth, P., Guilloteau, C., Mamalakis, A., & Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2023). Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation. Nature Communications.Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M. (2010). Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. Bloomsbury Press.Ouyang, H., Tang, X., Zhang, R., Baklanov, A., Brasseur, G., Kumar, R., Han, Q., & Luo, Y. (2023). Resilience building and collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in response to a new state of more frequent and intense extreme weather events. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.Perera, A., Nik, V., Chen, D., Scartezzini, J., & Hong, T. (2020). Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems.Rahman, M. M., & Islam, M. S. (2024). Institutional dynamics and climate adaptation: Unveiling the challenges and opportunities in coastal Bangladesh.Rifai, S., Li, S., & Malhi, Y. (2019). Coupling of El Niño events and long-term warming leads to pervasive climate extremes in the terrestrial tropics.Robinson, W. (2021). Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States.Scher, S., & Messori, G. (2019). How global warming changes the difficulty of synoptic weather forecasting.Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S., & Oreskes, N. (2023). Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections.UNEP. (2023). Current and historic contributions to global warming and emissions in the United States from 1850 to 2021. Statista.Wang, X., Jiang, D., & Lang, X. (2017). Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity. Science Bulletin.Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., Morgan, D., & Vest, J. (2026, April 15). Super-Duper El Niño. Columbia University Earth Institute.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2026, June 11). El Niño forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters [Press release].NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (2026, June 11). ENSO diagnostic discussion. National Weather Service.Seidel, D. J., & Birnbaum, A. N. (2015). Effects of Independence Day fireworks on atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter in the United States. Atmospheric Environment.World Meteorological Organization. (2026). Global annual-to-decadal climate update 2026–2035. WMO. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit interplace.io

Welcome back to the Information Entropy Podcast where this week we continue our exploration into the electromagnetic spectrum. Given the extreme heat (transmitted through infrared radiation… see its relevant ramble!) the boys start the episode exploring heat waves, heat domes, British summer heat, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and what that even is. After that, attention turns to microwaves… ovens and the waves themselves! Tom questions whether microwave ovens are small boxes of magic and explores how they heat your food. Mitch teaches us about radar systems and the other extremely cool uses in everyday life for microwaves!

Scientists studying climate models say there's a high chance this will be an El Niño year—and that we could be in for a “super” El Niño. The difference is indicated by sea surface temperatures in part of the Pacific Ocean rising a little—or a lot—above their long-term average. El Niño is one half of what climatologists call the ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The oscillation operates on a roughly 3-7 year cycle, changing the path of the jet stream and shifting weather conditions around the world. An El Niño year, for instance, typically brings wetter weather in the western U.S. but dryer conditions in the Pacific Northwest, and can be a drought buster for regions such as southern California.  But shifting ocean currents also have the potential to affect marine ecosystems, leading to algal booms, coral bleaching, and more.   Climate scientist Dillon Amaya joins Host Ira Flatow to describe the role of the El Niño in shaping world weather, and what effects a particularly strong El Niño year might have on global ecosystems. Guest:  Dr. Dillon Amaya is a research scientist at the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.   Other episodes you may enjoy: Meet A Pioneer Of Modern Weather Prediction Could We Get Weather Forecasts Years—Or A Decade—In Advance? Want SciFri gear? Check out our new shop! Transcripts for each episode are available within 1-3 days at sciencefriday.com. Subscribe to this podcast. Follow our show on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and Bluesky @scifri and sign up for our newsletters. Got a science question that's keeping you up at night? Call us: 877-4-SCIFRI Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This is episode 224 — the sound in the background is the weather - the other sound is the creaking of wagons as another great trek begins. We're going to trace the arc of Southern Africa's climate, beginning in the early 19th century, before turning to the decade under review — the 1860s — and following the path of the Griqua Great Trek into Nomansland. First let's get our heads around the cycles of drought and flood in southern Africa. The pernicious climate. As Professor Mike Meadows of UCT's Environmental Sciences Department observed back in 2002, South Africa's climate has long danced to an unpredictable rhythm — one marked by dramatic shifts in both rainfall and its timing. Precipitation follows a kind of cycle, yes, but one that keeps its own secrets. Some years bring bounty, others drought, and the line between the two is often sharp and sudden. The climate, in short, plays favourites with no one — and when it comes to rain, it can be maddeningly capricious. So while the calendar may promise a rainy season, it rarely tells us how generous the skies will be. The patterns are there — but the quantities? That's anyone's guess. South Africa, after all, is a land of dryness. Over 90 percent of its surface falls under what scientists call “affected drylands” — a polite term for places where water is scarce and the margins are thin. The rest? Even drier. Hyper-arid zones, where the land holds its breath and waits. And by the mid-19th century, much of this land was beginning to fray under the strain — overgrazed, overworked, slowly giving way to the long creep of degradation. South Africa's landscape is anything but simple. It's rugged, sculpted by time, with steep slopes and a dramatic stretch from the tropics to the temperate zone. But the story of our climate doesn't end on land. It's shaped by a swirling conversation between oceans and continents — a conversation held over centuries by systems with lyrical names: the Mozambique Channel Trough, the Mascarene High, the Southern Annular Mode, and the twin dipoles of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Then there's the heavyweight — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO — which has long held sway over our rainfall and drought cycles. The dry was one of the motivations for another Great Trek about to take place. The Griqua's who'd been living in the transOrangia since the late 1700s began to question their position in the world. With the Boers now controlling the Free State, and Moshoeshoe powerful in Lesotho, it was time to assess their options. In 1861, the Griqua joined the list of mass migrations of the 19th Century. There had been the effect of the Mfecane, then the Voortrekkers, and now, the Griqua. Two thousand people left Philippolis to establish themselves in Nomansland, far to the east, past Moshoeshoe's land over the Drakensberg. The reason why historians like Cambridge's Robert Ross call it spectacular was the road that the Griqua cut for themselves across the high ridges of the mountains, a remarkable feat of engineering for the time.

This is episode 224 — the sound in the background is the weather - the other sound is the creaking of wagons as another great trek begins. We're going to trace the arc of Southern Africa's climate, beginning in the early 19th century, before turning to the decade under review — the 1860s — and following the path of the Griqua Great Trek into Nomansland. First let's get our heads around the cycles of drought and flood in southern Africa. The pernicious climate. As Professor Mike Meadows of UCT's Environmental Sciences Department observed back in 2002, South Africa's climate has long danced to an unpredictable rhythm — one marked by dramatic shifts in both rainfall and its timing. Precipitation follows a kind of cycle, yes, but one that keeps its own secrets. Some years bring bounty, others drought, and the line between the two is often sharp and sudden. The climate, in short, plays favourites with no one — and when it comes to rain, it can be maddeningly capricious. So while the calendar may promise a rainy season, it rarely tells us how generous the skies will be. The patterns are there — but the quantities? That's anyone's guess. South Africa, after all, is a land of dryness. Over 90 percent of its surface falls under what scientists call “affected drylands” — a polite term for places where water is scarce and the margins are thin. The rest? Even drier. Hyper-arid zones, where the land holds its breath and waits. And by the mid-19th century, much of this land was beginning to fray under the strain — overgrazed, overworked, slowly giving way to the long creep of degradation. South Africa's landscape is anything but simple. It's rugged, sculpted by time, with steep slopes and a dramatic stretch from the tropics to the temperate zone. But the story of our climate doesn't end on land. It's shaped by a swirling conversation between oceans and continents — a conversation held over centuries by systems with lyrical names: the Mozambique Channel Trough, the Mascarene High, the Southern Annular Mode, and the twin dipoles of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Then there's the heavyweight — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO — which has long held sway over our rainfall and drought cycles. The dry was one of the motivations for another Great Trek about to take place. The Griqua's who'd been living in the transOrangia since the late 1700s began to question their position in the world. With the Boers now controlling the Free State, and Moshoeshoe powerful in Lesotho, it was time to assess their options. In 1861, the Griqua joined the list of mass migrations of the 19th Century. There had been the effect of the Mfecane, then the Voortrekkers, and now, the Griqua. Two thousand people left Philippolis to establish themselves in Nomansland, far to the east, past Moshoeshoe's land over the Drakensberg. The reason why historians like Cambridge's Robert Ross call it spectacular was the road that the Griqua cut for themselves across the high ridges of the mountains, a remarkable feat of engineering for the time.

Rick Aster, Colorado State University The long-period seismic background microseism wavefield is a globally visible signal that is generated by the incessant forces of ocean waves upon the solid Earth and is excited via two distinct source processes. Extensive continuous digital seismic data archives enable the analysis of this signal across nearly four decades to assess trends and other features in global ocean wave energy. This seminar considers primary and secondary microseism intensity between 4 and 20 s period between 1988 and late 2024. 73 stations from 82.5 deg. N to 89.9 deg. S latitude with >20 years of data and >75% data completeness from the NSF/USGS Global Seismographic, GEOSCOPE, and New China Digital Networks. The primary microseism wavefield is excited at ocean wave periods through seafloor tractions induced by the dynamic pressures of traveling waves where bathymetric depths are less than about 300 m. The much stronger secondary wavefield is excited at half the ocean wave period through seafloor pressure variations generated by crossing seas. It is not restricted to shallower depths but is sensitive to acoustic resonance periods in the ocean water column. Acceleration power spectral densities are estimated using 50%-overlapping, 1-hr moving windows and are integrated in 2-s wide period bands to produce band-passed seismic amplitude and energy time series. Nonphysical outliers, earthquake signals, and Fourier series seasonal variations (with a fundamental period of 365.2422 d) are removed. Secular period-dependent trends are then estimated using L1 norm residual-minimizing regression. Increasing microseism amplitude is observed across most of the Earth for both the primary and secondary microseism bands, with average median-normalized trends of +0.15 and +0.10 %/yr, respectively. Primary and secondary band microseism secular change rates relative to station medians correlate across global seismic stations at R=0.65 and have a regression slope of 1.04 with secondary trends being systematically lower by about 0.05 %/yr. Multiyear and geographically extensive seismic intensity variations show globally observable interannual climate index (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation) influence on large-scale storm and ocean wave energy. Microseism intensity histories in 2-s period bands exhibit regional to global correlations that reflect ocean-basin-scale teleconnected ocean swell, long-range Rayleigh wave propagation, and the large-scale reach of climate variation. Global secular intensity increases in recent decades occur across the entire 4 – 20 s microseism band and progressively greater intensification at longer periods, consistent with more frequent large-scale storm systems that generate ocean swell at the longest periods.

Ever wondered why we know so little about male sea turtles? Or why most of our knowledge primarily comes from the female half of the species?Male sea turtles are notoriously elusive, and unlike their female counterparts, male turtles rarely venture onto beaches. This makes studying them in the wild a real challenge. So how much do we know about male sea turtles?In Episode 7, we welcome Brazilian Conservation Biologist, Renato Bruno, to help us unravel the mysteries of male sea turtles. Drawing from nearly a decade of experience in sea turtle research, Renato shares incredible insights - from surprising instances of giant leatherbacks mistaking boats for mates to exploring the key differences in biology and behaviour between males and females.Tune in for an eye-opening conversation that reveals the often-overlooked lives of male sea turtles, and expands our understanding of these incredible creatures.Links for additional reading:Saragoça Bruno, R., Restrepo, J.A. & Valverde, R.A. (2020). Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and local ocean temperature on the reproductive output of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. Marine Biology.Bruno, R. S., Restrepo Machado, J. A., Borges Guzman, G. R., Ramos Loria, J. I., & Valverde, R. A. (2022). Biomarkers of reproduction in endangered green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. Conservation Physiology.Figgener, C., Bernardo, J., & Plotkin, P. T. (2022). Marine turtles are only minimally sexually size dimorphic, a pattern that is distinct from most non marine aquatic turtles. Ecology and Evolution.Laloë, J.-O., Schofield, G., & Hays, G. C. (2023). Climate warming and sea turtle sex ratios across the globe. Global Change Biology.Renato Bruno: Nat Geo ExplorerTo support Olive Ridley Project's work in sea turtle conservation, you can - Name and Adopt a wild sea turtle, Adopt a turtle patient or Donate here: https://oliveridleyproject.org/donateFollow us on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, Tiktok and YoutubeCredits:Sea Turtle Stories podcast is presented by Olive Ridley ProjectThe host for the podcast series is Dr Minnie LiddellThe podcast is edited, mixed and mastered by Dev RamkumarThe podcast series is produced and researched by Anadya Singh

This week we talk about ENSO, El Niño, and attribution science.We also discuss climate change, natural disasters, and the trade winds.Recommended Book: Titanium Noir by Nick HarkawayTranscriptThe field of attribution science, sometimes referred to as "extreme event attribution," focuses on figuring out whether and to what degree a particular weather event—especially rare weather disasters—are attributable to climate change.Severe floods and tornadoes and hurricanes all happen from time to time, which is why such events are sometimes referred to as once in a decade or once in a century disasters: the right natural variables align in the right way, and you have a disaster that is rare to the point that it's only likely to happen once every 10 or 100 years, but such rare events still happen, and sometimes more frequently than those numbers would imply; they're not impossible. And they're not necessarily the result of climate change.Folks working in this space, which is a blend of meteorology and the rapidly evolving field of climate science, do their best to figure out what causes what, and how those odds might have been impacted by the shifts we're seeing in global average temperatures in particular, and the knock-on effects of that warming, like shifts in the global water cycle; both of which influence all sorts of other planetary variables.The most common means of achieving this end is to run simulations based on historical climate data and extrapolating those trend-lines forward, allowing for natural variation, but otherwise sticking with the range of normal fluctuations that would have been expected, had we not started to churn so much CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere beginning with the industrial revolution.So if we hadn't done the Industrial Revolution the way we did it, what would our global climate and weather systems look like? They have a bunch of models with different assumptions baked into them that they have running, and they can simulate conditions, today, based on those models, and compare them with the reality of how things actually are in the real world, a world in which we did start to burn fossil fuels at a frantic rate, with all the pros and cons of that decision aggregating into our current climactic circumstances.This comparison, between a baseline, non-climate-change-impacted Earth, and what we see happening on real Earth, allows us to gauge the different in likelihoods for various weather systems and increasingly even specific weather events, like massive floods or hurricanes.It also allows us to ascertain what elements of a disaster or system are more or less likely, or the same, compared to that baseline Earth; so maybe we look at a regional heat wave and discover that it was a rare event made more likely by climate change, but that the intensity of the heat wasn't impacted—as was the case with a heat wave in Russia in 2010; climate change made the heat wave more likely, but had such a heat wave occurred, despite its low likelihood, in that non-industrial revolution scenario, the heat would have been roughly the same intensity as it was in real life.Both components of this system, attributing events and patterns to climate change, and confirming that they were not impacted, that they were just run of the mill bad luck, the consequence of natural systems, are arguably important, as while the former provides data for folks wanting to predict future climate change-related outcomes, and provides some degree of ammunition for the argument that climate change is making these sorts of things worse, which helps put a price tag on not moving faster to shift away from fossil fuels, it's also vital that we understand how climate and weather systems work, in general, and that we are able to set proper expectations as to what will change and how, as the atmosphere's composition continues to change, while also understanding what will remain the same, what various regions around the world need to be prepared for in a vacuum, leaving climate change out of it, and how our global weather systems work on a granular level, so that as outside influences like climate change, but not limited to climate change, act upon them, we can make better predictions about how that will adjust or overhaul the practical reality for people and ecosystems impacted by them.What I'd like to talk about today is a natural weather phenomenon that is expected to return soon, and how this phenomenon might change our latent, global weather patterns, for the better, for the worse, and for the neutral, and in turn how it might be changed by the climactic adjustments we're tracking using these simulations.—The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO phenomenon, is the monicker we've given to a collection of sea surface temperature and wind variations in the Pacific Ocean that, largely unpredictably, tweak the patterns of these systems from time to time, influenced by and influencing a large number of other, micro- and macro-scale systems around the world.Most directly, ENSO dictates how warm it will be across the tropics and subtropics, El Niño bringing warm waters to the surface of the relevant oceans and the Southern Oscillation referring to air pressure variations spanning the ocean between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, low pressure tending to occur over warm bodies of water, and higher pressure over colder bodies of water.When the water in this part of the Pacific, the central and east-central equatorial pacific, is warmer, on the surface, that reduces atmospheric pressure thereabouts, which in turn reduces the strength of the Pacific trade winds. That reduction, among other things, decreases rainfall over parts of Australia, India, and Indonesia, while upping the same, while also stoking additional cyclone risk, in the tropical Pacific Ocean.Fundamental to understanding why this is a big deal is understanding that this tweak in water and atmospheric conditions causes low level surface trade winds, which usually blow from east to west, to either stop blowing or barely blow, or in some cases to reverse direction.If you think about how weather patterns form, determining everything from who gets rain and how much, to what temperatures are like in a given area—because those winds pull warm or cold air along with them as they pass over warmer or cooler parts of the planet, like mountains and glaciers, but also deserts and tropical rain forests—it becomes clear why this change-up is such a big deal.There's a neutral phase of this phenomenon that typically occur between warmer and colder phases, and during that neutral phase, we usually see other, similar systems that are interconnected and predicated on still other geographic and atmospheric variables, like the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, having more of an impact on global weather and water cycle patterns.When this system is in a warmer El Niño state, though, that tends to cause a lot of heat waves throughout tropical regions in particular, while also spiking global surface temperatures for around a year, with all the secondary consequences of suddenly jolting the global thermostat higher: melting glaciers and ice caps, increasing the range of disease-carrying pests, messing with planting seasons; things like that.The opposite side of this coin, La Niña, can also be quite disruptive though, its influence defined by cooler waters rising to the surface in that part of the Pacific, warmer waters headed westward where they have less influence on this component of the world's thermostat and weather machine, and that drop in water temperature in this part of the ocean tends to reset many of the dials that are turned up by El Niño, moderating some of the weather patterns that are amplified by those warmer waters and returning the trade winds to their normal settings, while also reducing global temperatures to what we might think of as their default.But the next La Niña phenomenon—which experts in this space say will likely arrive sometime in the next few months, June or July of 2024, marking a quick transition away from the record-setting El Niño system we've been living through since July of 2023, which has been designated the fourth most extreme in recorded history—this anticipated new La Niña setup will follow a truly intense opposite pattern, which means if it's not strong enough, it may not counteract all of the warming brought about by its precursor El Niño system, which means the next El Niño system could compound upon this outgoing one, in terms of its globe-heating effects.There are also concerns that, because of that strong El Niño, and it arriving at a period of human-caused warming—two forces raising the temperature on the thermostat simultaneously, basically—there's a chance that the moderating force of this La Niña might run up against an insurmountable variable adjustment, even if it is otherwise powerful enough; meaning, this ENSO phenomenon could contribute to a long term, even permanent increase in global temperatures because its warming effects are mirroring another, external warming effect caused by us and our greenhouse gas emissions.We don't know exactly what that would mean in practice and long-term, but it could lead to more. and more extreme versions of what we've seen this past year: namely a surge in weather disasters like extreme droughts and floods and wildfires that never really end; just bigger and bigger surges, combined with higher and higher temperatures.And again, that's possible even if the La Niña pattern that's set to arrive is of a normal, non-weak strength, because of how potent this outgoing El Niño has been, and because its effects may be compounded by climate change.If the new La Niña does prove potent enough to counteract this outgoing El Niño, that may help with short-term temperature changes, but we're then likely to see a substantially more severe hurricane season; which is normally what happens during these periods of change, La Niña conditions making hurricanes more likely, but it could be even more severe than usual because of lingering oceanic heat from the El Niño, which popped temperatures in the Atlantic to 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the average temperature from the past three decades—and oceanic heat is what powers hurricanes, informing how big and destructive they can become.Last year's Atlantic Ocean hurricane season was already above-average in terms of the number of hurricanes and their strength because of that heat, but the amalgamation of variable-tweaks inherent in a La Niña transition make hurricanes more likely, whatever the ocean's temperature, so the combination of, likely, more hurricanes, plus far warmer than usual oceanic temperatures, means more, but also potentially a lot more powerful, hurricanes this season.We've been watching these systems and transitions for a while now, and our science related to them—including our ability to predict what they're going to do, and how much—has gotten pretty good over the last few decades.But all of these systems and all of their variables are interconnected, each and every piece touching each and every other piece of the planet's cycles and ecosystems and compositions; so there's a lot we're not tracking, a lot we're not tracking with the resolution we'd need for it to be valuable in this regard, and a lot of entanglements and relationships we're not even aware of, yet.In particular, the impact that climate change is having on these systems, directly and indirectly, is a big question mark in all these computations.Yes, we understand all of this better than a few decades ago, and yes, our simulations and models have gotten pretty solid, and are getting better by the day as we develop better formulae and software, and deploy more fancy satellites and other tracking tools that allow us to keep tabs on the relevant variables in an up-to-the-second manner.But because of how complex all of this is, it's a truly chaotic jumble of systems, and because of how we're scrambling to play catch-up, the world changing around us faster than we're learning about those changes—these sorts of systems are evolving even as we come to understand how they work; so our most up to date information is always a little bit out of date, leaving us prone to new unknowns and larger shifts than we'd anticipated based on our existing data.Human-amplified climate change, then, is fiddling with all the knobs and switches, changing how these phenomena work right before our eyes, and each new system and cycle is part known, part complete surprise because of how even tiny changes can make huge differences when compounded by these spirals and cascades of cause and large-scale, multifaceted effect.In other words, we have a good sense of what we need to be worried about and watching for during this probable upcoming transition, and we maybe have some things to look forward to, alongside a few other things to worry about and prepare for.We'll also be watching to see how much global temperatures come down, as that will tell us to what degree this outgoing El Niño has been tweaking those temperatures, and to what degree climate change is to blame for the disconcerting numbers we've been seeing in this regard.But we'll also be watching to see how everything is being amplified and compounded by all of these interconnected effects, as it may be, still allowing for ups and downs and other variations year to year, that these patterns, and others like them, will lead to wider, broader, more dramatic swings for the foreseeable future because of all those changes, natural and human-caused.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/business/environment/el-nino-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-second-half-2024-says-us-forecaster-2024-05-09/https://www.axios.com/2024/05/09/el-nino-la-nina-hurricane-seasonhttps://www.vox.com/climate/24145756/la-nina-2024-el-nino-heat-hurricane-record-temperature-pacifichttps://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.htmlhttps://theconversation.com/la-nina-is-coming-raising-the-chances-of-a-dangerous-atlantic-hurricane-season-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-this-climate-phenomenon-228595https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932023_La_Ni%C3%B1a_eventhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_event_attributionhttps://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-can-climate-change-affect-natural-disastershttps://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-1-2.htmlhttps://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47583https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/2/28/24085691/atlantic-ocean-warming-climate-change-hurricanes-coral-reefs-bleachinghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932023_La_Ni%C3%B1a_eventhttps://theconversation.com/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-extreme-weather-events-attribution-science-says-yes-for-some-heres-how-it-works-164941 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Will 2024 be very hot? Should we be worried?, published by A.H. on December 29, 2023 on LessWrong. tl;dr: There are several trends which suggest that global temperatures over the next year will experience a short-term increase, relative to the long-term increase in temperatures caused by man-made global warming. Credits: Most of the information comes from Berkley Earth monthly temperature updates. Several people on Twitter (Robert Rohde, Zeke Hausfather, James Hansen and Roko) have also been talking about the issues discussed here for a while. Man-made global warming has been causing a steady, long-term increase in average global temperatures since the industrial revolution. However, recently several trends are lining up which suggest that the next year/few years might experience temporary greater-than-average warming, on top of baseline man-made warming. Some of these factors are already in play and 2023 is 'virtually certain' to be the hottest year on record. The story can be summed up in this lovely graphic from Berkley earth: I've had a look into some of the things that are happening and have written up what I've learned. I am not a climate scientist, so take this all with a pinch of salt. El Niño What is El Niño? Periodically, the strength and direction of the winds over the Pacific ocean changes, causing the surface waters to flow differently, which leads to changes in the amount of cold water coming up from the depths of the ocean. This pattern is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The phase when the surface waters are warmer is known as El Niño, and the phase when the surface waters are cooler is known as La Niña. These periods occur irregularly every few years and last approximately a year. How does it affect global temperatures? Unsurprisingly, during the El Niño period, when surface waters are warmer, more heat is released into the atmosphere, leading to warmer global surface temperatures. In general, years with El Niño are hotter and years with La Niña are cooler on average. This is a pretty reliable generalisation but is not a totally hard-and-fast rule as shown in the figure below[1]. However, like a lot phenomena in climate science, El Niño has different effects depending on what part of the world you are in. Broadly, areas in the southern hemisphere and areas by the coast experience more warming than others. But El Niño can actually cause cooling in some areas, so its important to check where you live. When averaged out over the globe, global surface temperature during El Niño years is about 0.1-0.2C higher than normal. What about second-order effects? This change in temperature can cause all kinds of other effects such as flooding, drought, disease and crop failures, on top of the direct effects of heat. Are we currently in an El Niño phase? Yes, it started in early summer this year. How long will it last? It is expected to last until (Northern Hemisphere) summer 2024 and expected to peak around (Northern Hemisphere) winter (ie. soon). However, (quoting Berkley Earth) again: 'Due to the lag between the development of El Niño and its full impact being felt on global temperatures, it is plausible that the current El Niño will have a greater impact on global temperatures in 2024 than it does in 2023.' So it is not over yet. Even though it will peak during Northern Hemisphere winter, its effects will still be felt into the summer, on top of normal seasonal temperature increases. Is this one going to be bad? The current El Niño phase is shaping up to be the one of the strongest ever. However, one thing I don't understand: is this just because of 'standard' increases from man-made warming or is it something about the winds/ocean currents which makes this one strong? Solar Cycles What is the solar cycle? Approximately every 11 years, for reasons I d...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Will 2024 be very hot? Should we be worried?, published by A.H. on December 29, 2023 on LessWrong. tl;dr: There are several trends which suggest that global temperatures over the next year will experience a short-term increase, relative to the long-term increase in temperatures caused by man-made global warming. Credits: Most of the information comes from Berkley Earth monthly temperature updates. Several people on Twitter (Robert Rohde, Zeke Hausfather, James Hansen and Roko) have also been talking about the issues discussed here for a while. Man-made global warming has been causing a steady, long-term increase in average global temperatures since the industrial revolution. However, recently several trends are lining up which suggest that the next year/few years might experience temporary greater-than-average warming, on top of baseline man-made warming. Some of these factors are already in play and 2023 is 'virtually certain' to be the hottest year on record. The story can be summed up in this lovely graphic from Berkley earth: I've had a look into some of the things that are happening and have written up what I've learned. I am not a climate scientist, so take this all with a pinch of salt. El Niño What is El Niño? Periodically, the strength and direction of the winds over the Pacific ocean changes, causing the surface waters to flow differently, which leads to changes in the amount of cold water coming up from the depths of the ocean. This pattern is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The phase when the surface waters are warmer is known as El Niño, and the phase when the surface waters are cooler is known as La Niña. These periods occur irregularly every few years and last approximately a year. How does it affect global temperatures? Unsurprisingly, during the El Niño period, when surface waters are warmer, more heat is released into the atmosphere, leading to warmer global surface temperatures. In general, years with El Niño are hotter and years with La Niña are cooler on average. This is a pretty reliable generalisation but is not a totally hard-and-fast rule as shown in the figure below[1]. However, like a lot phenomena in climate science, El Niño has different effects depending on what part of the world you are in. Broadly, areas in the southern hemisphere and areas by the coast experience more warming than others. But El Niño can actually cause cooling in some areas, so its important to check where you live. When averaged out over the globe, global surface temperature during El Niño years is about 0.1-0.2C higher than normal. What about second-order effects? This change in temperature can cause all kinds of other effects such as flooding, drought, disease and crop failures, on top of the direct effects of heat. Are we currently in an El Niño phase? Yes, it started in early summer this year. How long will it last? It is expected to last until (Northern Hemisphere) summer 2024 and expected to peak around (Northern Hemisphere) winter (ie. soon). However, (quoting Berkley Earth) again: 'Due to the lag between the development of El Niño and its full impact being felt on global temperatures, it is plausible that the current El Niño will have a greater impact on global temperatures in 2024 than it does in 2023.' So it is not over yet. Even though it will peak during Northern Hemisphere winter, its effects will still be felt into the summer, on top of normal seasonal temperature increases. Is this one going to be bad? The current El Niño phase is shaping up to be the one of the strongest ever. However, one thing I don't understand: is this just because of 'standard' increases from man-made warming or is it something about the winds/ocean currents which makes this one strong? Solar Cycles What is the solar cycle? Approximately every 11 years, for reasons I d...

Arizona's Supreme Court is considering whether Arizona should ban almost all abortions, or allow them early in pregnancy. Phoenix will soon require certain property owners to register with the city. Water management in the drought-stressed West is complicated by the interplay between mountains and what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Plus the latest Fronteras Desk, education, tribal natural resources and metro Phoenix news.

It's heartbreaking when a drought or flood causes crops in a region to fail, and children to go hungry. Kids can starve to death or endure social, economic, and health problems well into adulthood due to malnutrition. But what if there was a way to predict when these weather disasters are likely to happen, so governments, aid organizations, and residents could prepare? A team at the University of Chicago says people could already do this, using one of the best-known weather patterns: the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. “ENSO has destabilizing effects on agriculture, economic production, and social stability throughout areas of the global tropics that are teleconnected to it. It has been linked to human health outcomes directly through its effects on vector- and water-borne infectious diseases, as well as indirectly by decreasing agricultural yields and increasing food insecurity and the likelihood of conflict,” they write in a Nature Communications article. It's possible to predict this Pacific Ocean-based pattern, says Dr. Amir Jina, an Assistant Professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy and a Senior Fellow at the Energy Policy Institute of Chicago. In this episode of One World, One Health, listen as Dr. Jina explains how people could use predictions about El Niño years to get ahead of some of the forces that make children go hungry.

Have you heard of El Niño? Some people call it the single biggest influence on winter weather in North America. But what is it, and how does it work? And we're in an El Niño event this year, and it's going to affect our weather (and ecology!)There is always much confusion about El Niño, what it is, why it occurs, and how it might alter our weather in the coming seasons. Today's episode looks at El Niño, which is one part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Consider this a primer - an accessible look at some of the mechanisms and impacts of El Niño, and how and why it can impact weather from India to California and beyond. And we also include a few ecological tidbits here and there.In order to give El Niño its due, we also cover some of the basics of how oceans influence weather.I tried hard to pack a lot of information into 50 minutes, along with a lot of analogies to help reinforce some of the points. Let me know how I did! And of course, these are very complex systems, so there is much that I couldn't cover.Looking ahead, we will have an expert climatologist later this year, so this episode will serve as good background for some of that conversation. I also have interviews with a dendrochronologist (tree ring expert!), a wildfire episode with an ex-firefighter, and an episode on nocturnal animals. So be sure to subscribe to the podcast in your favorite app to ensure you don't miss future releases.FULL SHOW NOTESLinks To Topics DiscussedDaniel Swain - Weather West, YouTube Office HoursJet Steam BasicsJet Stream Alignment in ENSO ScenariosNational Weather Service CPC ENSO Report (PDF)Rossby WavesMusic: Spellbound by Brian Holtz MusicFree download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9616-spellboundLicense (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-licenseArtist website: https://brianholtzmusic.com Support the show

A strong El Niño event in the coming months could have negative effects for food inflation, commodities markets and climate change.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives today, I'll discuss the global risks and impact from a potential El Niño event later this year. It's Thursday, September 7th at 10 a.m. in New York. Over the last few months, as you've been doing your backyard grilling or taking a well-deserved summertime vacation, you may have heard a passing news reference to a climate pattern called El Niño. And although I'm an equity analyst and not a meteorologist, I'm going to talk about El Niño today because it could have some significant impacts for investors. To explain, El Niño refers to a warming of the ocean surface or above average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It's the counterpart to La Niña, which refers to the cooling effect of the same ocean surfaces. Essentially, El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. ENSO follows cyclical patterns that repeat at a 2 to 7 year cadence and tend to peak in the November to February window. Current conditions imply about a 70% probability that we could be facing a moderate to strong El Niño event later this year with a range of potentially significant impacts across regions and industries. First, although El Niño starts in the Pacific equator area, it has a significant impact on global weather. El Niño tends to peak around year end, impacting global rains and temperatures. El Niño driven seasonal patterns in the U.S., Argentina and the Andes tend to be wet, while those in Southeast Asia, Australia, Brazil, Colombia and Africa tend to be dry. This dynamic creates conditions that move wildfires and hurricanes from the Atlantic into the Pacific area. El Niño events also impact the global economy and the environmental, social and governance, or ESG, factors for businesses worldwide. More specifically, a moderate to strong El Niño in combination with the Russia-Ukraine war could impact food inflation, raising questions about the emerging markets central banks easing cycles. It could also impact trade and GDP in agro-related economies such as Argentina, India, Australia, Brazil and Colombia, among others. It may also impact several commodities, including sugar, grains, animal meal, proteins, electricity, lithium, copper, iron ore, aluminum and coal. El Niño's effects can be positive or negative for different sectors and regions. For example, El Niño tends to be a negative in emerging markets. In Latin America, given the size of the agricultural sector and the spillover effect of agriculture into other industries, growth could be affected significantly. The recession we expect in Argentina this year is partially driven by La Niña, which generated an unprecedented drought. We expect El Niño to help grain yields in Argentina and to provide significant positive base effects to GDP in 2024. Finally, when it comes to ESG, El Niño can exacerbate climate change impacts and increase concentrations of greenhouse gasses. Since this is a global issue and impacts all sectors to various degrees, we believe investors should pay close attention. Furthermore, the humanitarian impact of El Niño lasts long after the phenomenon itself, be it through impacts on food security and malnutrition, disease outbreaks, disrupted basic services and sanitation or significant impacts on livelihoods around the world. Typically, extreme weather events hit the poorest communities the hardest. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

COVER - possono le città diventare carbon neutral al 2030?L'Europa sta cercando di fare in modo che 100 città europee diventino carbon neutral per il 2030, fra 7 anni. Nel mondo le città producono il 70% delle emissioni e poi le città sono le più ricche quindi se non iniziano loro chi dovrebbe farlo? Come si dice sempre in questi casi: le tecnologie esistono si tratta soltanto della volontà. Ed è quella che manca perché in una città come Berlino, esclusa dalle 100, hanno fatto un referendum e non abbastanza persone hanno votato. Si potranno avere aria pulita, case sane e piacevole da vivere, diete più sane.MALCLIMA - El nino, La nina e la sfiga Più o meno 100 anni fa, c'era una volta un pescatore che in certi periodi non pescava quasi niente. Il mare diventava proprio caldo, la superficie dell'acuqa appariva oleosa e nel fondo si vedevano arrivare dei nuvoloni neri. Lui lo chiamo El Niño de Navidad, Il bambino del Natale. I meteorologi nel tempo studiarono questo fenomeno dandogli lo stesso nome e spiegandolo: è una cosa che riguarda tutto l'oceano pacifico, nome scientifico ENSO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. E sono delle grandi correnti che spingono l'acqua in una direzione dell'oceano per determinati mesi dell'anno.Poi c'è un fenomeno opposto chiamato La Nina. Sono cicli atmosferici. Sono importantissimi perché hanno effetti su raccolti, salute umana e disponibilità di acqua. Si alternano, di solito durano ciascuno dai 3 ai 7 anni.La notizia è che nel 2023 La Nina sta terminando un ciclo strano che è durato 3 anni. Quindi i meteorologi del mondo dicono: Attenzione, attenzione! Durante la nina le temperature tendono ad essere più fresche... Quindi ci aspetta ancora più caldo di prima? È una possibilità. ITALIA - Salvini propone di alzare il limite velocità autostrade a 150kmhIl Ministero delle infrastrutture e dei trasporti ha proposto questa cosa di aumentare la velocità. Fabrizio Fasanella, giornalista ambientale per Linkiesta, racconta uno dei suoi ultimi articoli dal titolo: Il pericoloso messaggio dietro la proposta di Salvini sui limiti in autostradaFonti:https://www.dw.com/en/cities-net-zero-2030-target/a-65200619 https://netzerocities.eu/#:~:text=INTRODUCING%20NETZEROCITIES&text=NetZeroCities%20helps%20Europe%20in%20its,services%20tailored%20to%20their%20needshttps://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2023/04/20/news/copernicus_emergenza_clima_caldo_siccita_record_estate_2023-12763869/ https://theconversation.com/la-nina-is-finishing-an-extremely-unusual-three-year-cycle-heres-how-it-affected-weather-around-the-world-196561https://www.3bmeteo.com/giornale-meteo/meteo--la-nina--egrave--agli-sgoccioli--el-nino-dopo-l-estate--i-possibili-effetti-680692https://www.linkiesta.it/2023/04/limite-velocita-150-autostrada-salvini-rischi-ambiente-incidenti/Gruppo WA per ricevere SOLO le notifiche delle nuove puntate - https://chat.whatsapp.com/Fa6acDr4ddcFOWj5FShv9RLinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/19026854www.checlimafa.it

Weather systems on Earth aren't stable. There are cycles that weather patterns go through, which can have enormous effects around the globe. There is probably no more important weather cycle than the one meteorologists called the Southern Oscillation. This cycle can have dramatic implications for temperatures and rainfall all over the world.  Learn more about El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Subscribe to the podcast!  https://link.chtbl.com/EverythingEverywhere?sid=ShowNotes -------------------------------- Executive Producer: Charles Daniel Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere Update your podcast app at newpodcastapps.com Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/everythingeverywheredaily Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After three years of meddling with New Zealand's weather, La Niña is finally moving away - but not without leaving a damp after-taste in the North Island. In its just-issued outlook for the next three months, Niwa has reported that La Niña will finally fade to "Enso-neutral" conditions this month  El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short, influences rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around the world, including New Zealand. NIWA's principal scientist Chris Brandolino spoke to Corin Dann.  

SpaceTime Series 25 Episode 125*Lift off NASA's Artemis-1 Mega Rocket Launches Orion to MoonThe world's most powerful rocket NASA's Space Launch System has successfully blasted into orbit on its maiden flight. The spectacular nighttime launch from pad 39B at the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida carried the Artemis-1 Orion spacecraft on the first leg of a journey that will ultimately return humans to the Moon.*NASA's CAPSTONE arrives at the moonNASA's CAPSTONE spacecraft has successfully slipped into lunar orbit becoming the first cubesat to complete the journey.*A solar snake slithers across the SunThe European Space Agency's Solar Orbiter has imaged a massive flash of plasma streaking a third of the way across the face of the Sun.*The Science ReportPrepare for increases in flooding and droughts caused by an acceleration of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation due to climate change.Fraser Island responsible for creating the Great Barrier Reef.Are you smarter than a fifth grader.Skeptics guide predictions on major disaster in IrelandListen to SpaceTime on your favorite podcast app with our universal listen link: https://spacetimewithstuartgary.com/listen For more SpaceTime and show links: https://linktr.ee/biteszHQ If you love this podcast, please get someone else to listen to. Thank you…To become a SpaceTime supporter and unlock commercial free editions of the show, gain early access and bonus content, please visit https://bitesz.supercast.com/ . Premium version now available via Spotify and Apple Podcasts.For more podcasts visit our HQ at https://biteszhq.com Your support is needed...SpaceTime is an independently produced podcast (we are not funded by any government grants, big organisations or companies), and we're working towards becoming a completely listener supported show...meaning we can do away with the commercials and sponsors. We figure the time can be much better spent on researching and producing stories for you, rather than having to chase sponsors to help us pay the bills.That's where you come in....help us reach our first 1,000 subscribers...at that level the show becomes financially viable and bills can be paid without us breaking into a sweat every month. Every little bit helps...even if you could contribute just $1 per month. It all adds up.By signing up and becoming a supporter at the $5 or more level, you get immediate access to over 280 commercial-free, double, and triple episode editions of SpaceTime plus extended interview bonus content. You also receive all new episodes on a Monday rather than having to wait the week out. Subscribe via Supercast (you get a month's free trial to see if it's really for you or not) ... and share in the rewards. Details at Supercast - https://bitesznetwork.supercast.tech/ Details at https://spacetimewithstuartgary.com or www.bitesz.com #space #astronomy #podcast #science #news #spacetime

Subscribe to the podcast!  https://podfollow.com/everythingeverywhere/ Weather systems on Earth aren't stable. There are cycles that weather patterns go through which can have enormous effects around the globe. There is probably no more important weather cycle than the one meteorologists called the Southern Oscillation. This cycle can have dramatic implications for temperatures and rainfall all over the world.  Learn more about El Nino and La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Check out the selection of clothing at Scottevest.com! -------------------------------- Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere   Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh   Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/EEDailyPodcast/ Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/

The last El Niño was a whopper. It produced a monster storm season in the North Pacific, extreme drought in the Caribbean and parts of Africa, and a jump in global temperatures. And it kept the southern United States cool and wet.That was in 2015 and '16 -- about two decades after the previous big El Niño. And based on that trend, we might expect the next big one in the mid-2030s.Recent studies, though, suggest the cycle could be speeding up. If climate change continues at its present rate, big El Niños and La Niñas could happen twice as often -- roughly every decade.El Niño and La Niña are part of a cycle known as ENSO -- the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Changes in water temperature in the west-central Pacific Ocean are accompanied by shifts in winds and ocean currents. During El Niño, warmer water moves toward the coast of South America. And during La Niña, those waters get cooler. The change can affect the climate of much of the planet.El Niño and La Niña alternate every few years. Most events are mild. But some are quite strong. And some climate models suggest that the more powerful bouts could become stronger and more frequent. In fact, there's evidence that it's already happening.So far, though, scientists have good records for only the last few decades. That makes it hard to know if the changes are caused by climate change, natural cycles in the Pacific, or a combination. Scientists are keeping a close eye on the Pacific to find out.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation scale moves back and fourth towards the end of ever year. This year, its polar end La Niña is active for the first time since 2016. But what does this scale mean and what are the effects of La Niña in Australia? Reporter Anneliese Farrer spoke to Dr. Yi Huang, Lecturer in climate science at Melbourne University, to get a better understanding. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This second part of the interview with Mark Cane picks up where Part I left off – at MIT, in the middle of Mark's PhD. A major focus of the interview is the discovery that made Mark’s career, when he and his student at the time, Steve Zebiak, developed the first dynamical model that could both simulate and predict El Niño events; and then how they ventured tomake an actual real-time prediction, of the 1985-86 event, and then publicized it. That was a bold and risky move, but it paid off. "The fact that it worked as soon as we started doing realistic things actually added to the sense of confidence. [...] We had sweated to make the model work but not to make the forecast work. So I was fairly confident. And one thought, I thought, and others, that okay, this could do some good if we’re right and people paid attention." El Niño and its companion La Niña (collectively referred to as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) are drivers of the strongest year-to-year climate fluctuations on the planet. They alter patterns of weather variability in many places around the globe, including the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Current forecast models can predict these events 6-12 months ahead, and their predictions help to reduce the impacts of ENSO on people and businesses. The model developed by Mark Cane and Steve Zebiak laid the foundation for this huge success story -- ironically, that breakthrough happened just after the biggest disappointment of Mark's career: He had left MIT after being told that he wouldn't get tenure. This was no doubt a difficult experience for Mark (and probably a decision MIT has come to regret), even though the many successes in his career by far outweigh that setback. You can find more information about Mark and his work here. The interview with Mark Cane was recorded in May 2019. 

Mark Cane is the center of the “family portrait” of climate scientists that are featured in this first season of Deep Convection. In recognition of his special role, we are going to cover Mark's life in two episodes – this is Part I. Mark Cane is most famous for his seminal work on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which will be one of the main topics of Part II. But this conversation starts at the beginning, with Mark's origins in Brooklyn during the age of the Dodgers, before the club moved to Los Angeles in 1957. It was a time when baseball was more than a game: When the Dodgers signed Jackie Robinson in 1947 as the first black player in the modern major leagues, it was a big step forward for the American civil rights movement. After graduating from Harvard in the 60s, Mark became himself a civil rights activist and spent a summer in the South trying to register people to vote. Back in New York and working as a programmer at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, he had his first encounter with Jule Charney, who was brought in as a consultant for the project he was working on. Charney left a strong impression on anyone who worked with him (in episode 2, Kerry Emanuel shares some of his memories of this exceptional meteorologist), and Mark was no exception: “And it quickly became clear that he understood how things worked. I was kind of amazed by that since I assumed nobody understood it. […] And I asked him a lot of ignorant, very ignorant questions because I had no basis for asking other than ignorant questions. And he was actually pretty patient with me looking back. I mean he wasn’t always so patient with fools but there you go.” After an interlude as a math professor in rural New Hampshire, Mark decided to go back to graduate school – he chose to go to MIT, where he switched to physical oceanography and became Charney's student. This was the beginning of an outstanding career filled with many highlights, including the development of a groundbreaking forecast model that helps millions of people around the world become more resilient and better prepared for El Niño weather patterns. But more on that in two weeks, in Part II. You can find more information about Mark and his work here. The interview with Mark Cane was recorded in May 2019. 

Understanding climate models If you’ve heard about any climate cycle, it’s probably the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. 2015/2016 is looking like it might bring a record El Niño, and media coverage is, for climate, pretty remarkable. The coverage is understandable, as weird things happen during big El Niños. The eastern tropical Pacific Ocean […]

Einstein A Go Go - 2nd September 2018Dr Linden, Dr Ray & Dr ShaneNews items: El Nio, Southern Oscillation and the ENSO, Human induced earthquakes, CRISPR,First guest: Levin Kuhlmann, PhD Centre for Human Psychopharmacology Swinburne University of Technology & Departments of Medicine and Biomedical Engineering The University of Melbourne. Epileptic seizure prediction techniques, more HERESecond guest: Dr Nicki Cranna Project Officer - Neuroscience PhD Program | Project Manager (Communications) Melbourne Neuroscience Institute | Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences The University of Melbourne. SquareCell provides visual solutions for complex scientific and medical concepts. From journal cover art, illustrative figures, animations and interactive content, we aim to highlight the incredible beauty of the natural world and communicate the latest advances in cutting-edge research. Science communication HEREExtra news items: The 2018 Eureka prize finalists.Remember, ""Science is everywhere"", including:Website, Facebook, Twitter, Podcasts& every Sunday at 11a.m AEST on RRR 102.7mHz FM

Ahead of the publication of our briefing paper "What is the El Niño – Southern Oscillation?", Professor Liz Bentley, RMetS Chief Executive, spoke to one of the authors Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office and Professor at Exeter University, about the El Niño and La Niña, the largest seasonal fluctuation in the Earth's atmosphere.  Our membership is open to everyone and anyone with an interest in weather and climate, whether that be as a science, profession or interest. We have over 3,300 members from more than 50 countries that includes academics, scientists and professional meteorologists as well as students and keen weather enthusiasts. The Society's programmes are broad and diverse, with many activities accessible not only to members but also to the general public and the wider meteorological and climate community. For more information on our charitable activities and events visit our website at www.rmets.org. Thank you for listening! Comments and ideas for future topics are always welcomed so please get in touch at jo.bayliss@rmets.org. Twitter - @rmets Instagram - @rmets_

Ahead of the publication of our briefing paper "What is the El Niño – Southern Oscillation?", Professor Liz Bentley, RMetS Chief Executive, spoke to one of the authors Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office and Professor at Exeter University, about the El Niño and La Niña, the largest seasonal fluctuation in the Earth's atmosphere.  Our membership is open to everyone and anyone with an interest in weather and climate, whether that be as a science, profession or interest. We have over 3,300 members from more than 50 countries that includes academics, scientists and professional meteorologists as well as students and keen weather enthusiasts. The Society's programmes are broad and diverse, with many activities accessible not only to members but also to the general public and the wider meteorological and climate community. For more information on our charitable activities and events visit our website at www.rmets.org. Thank you for listening! Comments and ideas for future topics are always welcomed so please get in touch at jo.bayliss@rmets.org. Twitter - @rmets Instagram - @rmets_

El Niño Southern Oscillation: how it impacts the world and what does it mean to us?   El Niño 2015-2016 is affecting more than 60 million people across the globe.* Recent record shows that over the last 20 years, 90% of major disasters have been caused by different weathers, floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts, and other weather related events. Severe drought and associated food insecurity, flooding, rains, and temperature rises due to El Niño are causing a wide range of health problems, including disease outbreaks, malnutrition, heat stress and respiratory diseases.  The top 5 countries hit by the highest number of disasters are the United States, China, India, Philippines, and Indonesia.  Although there are more negative impacts to this phenomena, there are some benefits... Tune in and find out more!   Disaster and emergency preparedness guide Download for FREE  www.iDAREworld.com     *Source: World Health Organization

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one particular system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.

The heat stored in the ocean influences the atmosphere above, impacting weather and climate around the globe. Long-term satellite observation of the ocean’s surface temperatures enables scientists to understand large-scale climate patterns. One such pattern is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, marked by the changing temperature of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In 2010, one phase of the ENSO cycle—El Niño—shifted dramatically to La Niña, its opposite phase. You can watch the shift and the wild weather that resulted in this visualization of sea surface temperature data.

Separating Solar and Anthropogenic (Greenhouse Gas-Related) Climate Impacts During the past three decades a suite of space-based instruments has monitored the Sun’s brightness as well as the Earth’s surface and atmospheric temperatures. These datasets enable the separation of climate’s responses to solar activity from other sources of climate variability (anthropogenic greenhouse gases, El Niño Southern Oscillation, volcanic aerosols). The empirical evidence indicates that the solar irradiance 11-year cycle increase of 0.1% produces a global surface temperature increase of about 0.1 K with larger increases at higher altitudes. Historical solar brightness changes are estimated by modeling the contemporary irradiance changes in terms of their solar magnetic sources (dark sunspots and bright faculae) in conjunction with simulated long-term evolution of solar magnetism. In this way, the solar irradiance increase since the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum is estimated to be slightly larger than the increase in recent solar activity cycles, and smaller than early estimates that were based on variations in Sun-like stars and cosmogenic isotopes. Ongoing studies are beginning to decipher the empirical Sun- climate connections as a combination of responses to direct solar heating of the surface and lower atmosphere, and indirect heating via solar UV irradiance impacts on the ozone layer and middle atmosphere, with subsequent communication to the surface and climate. The associated physical pathways appear to involve the modulation of existing dynamical and circulation atmosphere-ocean couplings, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (El Nino/La Nina cycles) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The Sun's Role in Past, Current and Future Climate Change Correlations of instrumental or reconstructed climate time series with indices of solar activity are often being used to suggest that the climate system is tightly coupled to the sun. Yet correlations have to be used with caution because they are not necessarily synonymous with cause-and-effect relationships. Therefore, it is critical to understand the physical mechanisms that are responsible for the signals. Independent tests can then be applied to validate or reject a hypothesized link. Spatial structures that are related to the processes that translate the solar influence into a climatic response can serve as such a test. A particularly powerful example is obtained by looking at the vertical extent of the solar signal in the atmosphere. Biographies Dr. Judith Lean is Senior Scientist for Sun-Earth System Research in the Space Science Division of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC. She has served on a variety of NASA, NSF, NOAA and NRC advisory committees, including as Chair of the National Research Council (NRC) Working Group on Solar Influences on Global Change and, most recently, the NRC Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor De-scopes and De-manifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft. A member of the AGU, IAGA, AAS/SPD and AMS, she was inducted as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2002 and a member of US National Academy of Sciences in 2003. Dr. Caspar Ammann is a research scientist, in the Climate and Global Dynamics Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. He has a M.S. degree in Geography and Geology from the University of Bern, Switzerland and a Ph.D. in Geosciences from the University of Massachusetts. His primary research is focused on the climate of past centuries and millennia, and how the current changes compare to this natural background. He has reconstructed past climates as well as volcanic forcing from proxy (e.g., ice cores, corals etc..) records and then simulated climate variability and response to forcings in state-of-the-art coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models.

Separating Solar and Anthropogenic (Greenhouse Gas-Related) Climate Impacts During the past three decades a suite of space-based instruments has monitored the Sun’s brightness as well as the Earth’s surface and atmospheric temperatures. These datasets enable the separation of climate’s responses to solar activity from other sources of climate variability (anthropogenic greenhouse gases, El Niño Southern Oscillation, volcanic aerosols). The empirical evidence indicates that the solar irradiance 11-year cycle increase of 0.1% produces a global surface temperature increase of about 0.1 K with larger increases at higher altitudes. Historical solar brightness changes are estimated by modeling the contemporary irradiance changes in terms of their solar magnetic sources (dark sunspots and bright faculae) in conjunction with simulated long-term evolution of solar magnetism. In this way, the solar irradiance increase since the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum is estimated to be slightly larger than the increase in recent solar activity cycles, and smaller than early estimates that were based on variations in Sun-like stars and cosmogenic isotopes. Ongoing studies are beginning to decipher the empirical Sun- climate connections as a combination of responses to direct solar heating of the surface and lower atmosphere, and indirect heating via solar UV irradiance impacts on the ozone layer and middle atmosphere, with subsequent communication to the surface and climate. The associated physical pathways appear to involve the modulation of existing dynamical and circulation atmosphere-ocean couplings, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (El Nino/La Nina cycles) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The Sun's Role in Past, Current and Future Climate Change Correlations of instrumental or reconstructed climate time series with indices of solar activity are often being used to suggest that the climate system is tightly coupled to the sun. Yet correlations have to be used with caution because they are not necessarily synonymous with cause-and-effect relationships. Therefore, it is critical to understand the physical mechanisms that are responsible for the signals. Independent tests can then be applied to validate or reject a hypothesized link. Spatial structures that are related to the processes that translate the solar influence into a climatic response can serve as such a test. A particularly powerful example is obtained by looking at the vertical extent of the solar signal in the atmosphere. Biographies Dr. Judith Lean is Senior Scientist for Sun-Earth System Research in the Space Science Division of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC. She has served on a variety of NASA, NSF, NOAA and NRC advisory committees, including as Chair of the National Research Council (NRC) Working Group on Solar Influences on Global Change and, most recently, the NRC Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor De-scopes and De-manifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft. A member of the AGU, IAGA, AAS/SPD and AMS, she was inducted as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2002 and a member of US National Academy of Sciences in 2003. Dr. Caspar Ammann is a research scientist, in the Climate and Global Dynamics Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. He has a M.S. degree in Geography and Geology from the University of Bern, Switzerland and a Ph.D. in Geosciences from the University of Massachusetts. His primary research is focused on the climate of past centuries and millennia, and how the current changes compare to this natural background. He has reconstructed past climates as well as volcanic forcing from proxy (e.g., ice cores, corals etc..) records and then simulated climate variability and response to forcings in state-of-the-art coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models.