The Invisible Hand

What happens when political forecasts miss the mark, global rules evolve, and economic models don't quite capture reality? In this episode, we dive into the major political and economic stories shaping Australia's role on the world stage. Co-hosts Domenique Sherab and Paul Scanlon take you through a three-part format, delivering insightful analysis and grounded perspectives on the key forces driving markets and policy decisions.We start by unpacking Australia's recent federal election, where the Labor Party achieved a historic re-election while the Liberal campaign faced an unexpected and significant setback which caught many by surprise. Next, Domenique and Paul turn their attention to the U.S. lifting long-standing sanctions on Syria, exploring what this move might mean for the region's recovery, trade opportunities, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.Then our focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest interest rate cut, highlighting the growing uncertainties in the global economy and the potential return of inflation amid changing trade landscapes.Wrapping up, the conversation broadens to a global scale with Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, ending its AAA status, and what this signals about fiscal trustworthiness and the evolving rules around sovereign debt. Throughout, Domenique and Paul bring a distinctly Australian viewpoint to help make sense of a fast-changing economic environment.Episode Highlights: [00:57] Paul has recently returned from a holiday in South Africa and other African regions.[01:28] We'll be discussing the new government in Australia, Syrian sanctions, the latest RBA cut, and Moody's downgrade of the US economy in our segments: "What's in the News?", "The Hand", and "The Invisible".[02:06] What's in the news? The Australian election was on May 3rd. Anthony Albanese was re-elected. [03:52] We share our analysis of the election. [07:16] On May 12th, Donald Trump announced the US would lift sanctions on Syria.[10:30] The speed or pace at which Syria can benefit from that re-entry into global trading markets will be dependent on the speed and ability for it to rebuild that trade and economic infrastructure.[12:13] The hand: The RBA lowered rates last week.[15:31] The preemptive cut to stimulate the economy is appropriate.[16:27] How the rate cut will affect keeping inflation and unemployment rates stable.[25:54] A big shout out to the Odd Lots podcast. [28:35] Paul talks about what all this analysis means for his January predictions.[30:01] The invisible: On May 16th, 2025, Moody's downgraded the United States credit rating, making it the last major rating agency to strip the US of its AAA rating.[31:54] Credit ratings are important and they affect the price of your debt.[36:46] This debt issue is what Trump is trying to address.[37:28] How many countries have AAA credit rating? There are 12 including Australia.Resources & Links Related to this EpisodeThe Invisible Hand PodcastOdd Lots PodcastThe Butterfly Effect: How Your Life Matters

In episode 15, Domenique and Paul try to avoid talking about Trump's tariffs but end up doing it alot. In between, they discuss housing affordability in Australia and the major parties policy proposals to address this before the upcoming Australian election; and whether the Euro could ever become the global reserve currency. 

In this episode, Domenique and Paul throw out the plan for the episode to discuss the biggest economic news story of the day: the fall out from Trump's new tariff regime on the world.

In this episode, Domenique and Paul discuss Trump's tariffs and Chinese consumption, dive deep into the findings of the Knight Frank Wealth Report and consider the big economic risks for 2025. 

In the 12th episode, Domenique and Paul discuss the latest Australian inflation print and economic decisions coming from the new Trump administration. In the second section, we discuss Deepseek and how it is disrupting markets and whether this will have long term global and Australian economic impacts. In our final segment, we discuss the current financial malaise in China and some local factors contributing to this. 

In the first episode for 2025, Domenique puts Paul back in the hot seat while he sets his predictions for the year ahead: from GDP and inflation, to whether Trump will go ahead with his trade war. 

In the final episode for 2024, Domenique and Paul discuss the RBA's latest decision to hold the cash rate in the face of weak wages and GDP growth and review Paul's economic predictions for the year to see how he fared. 

In episode 9 Domenique and Paul throw out the usual structure of the podcast to discuss the momentous US election and the economic policy implications this may have for the US and the world.

In this episode, we discuss the latest economic data coming out of the Australian and Chinese economies, the upcoming US presidential election and, for our final segment, return to Paul's predictions for 2024 to see how he is tracking. 

In episode 7, we run through some key data points that have come out over the last quarter, from GDP, inflation, wages growth to understand what these mean for the Australian economy. In our final segment, we discuss three emerging industries in China and discuss whether they can help solve the structural problems the country faces. 

In our final episode for 2023, we talk predictions: will the cash rate go up, inflation down? Will the price of oil slump? Can China get out of its current economic malaise to bolster global growth? Tune in for the predictions to these and many more. 

In episode 5 of the Invisible Hand, we discuss the most recent rate rise by the RBA, some new data releases coming out of Australia and the US, and Paul thinks about some thorny questions in the discussion about structural issues confronting the Chinese economy. 

On this week of the Invisible Hand, we talk about the many variables that go into making decisions at the RBA, we take a look at the Australian economy and how the property market in China is faring and what impacts we can expect on the Australian economy. 

This week in The Invisible Hand, Domenique is joined by Jamie Bang, while Paul is on paternity leave. In the episode we discuss housing undersupply in Australia, whether the RBA can still travel along the narrow path out of inflation and finally how both Jamie and I met Paul. 

For our second episode we discuss the reduction in inflation in Australia and whether the RBA will be able to walk the 'narrow path' for another economic miracle, the downgrading of the US long-term credit rating and we return to consider the deflationary pressures plaguing Australia's biggest trading partner.

For our inaugural episode of the Invisible Hand, we discuss inflation, the current state of the property market and the role of dwindling primary exports in the Australian economy.