Economy of the world
POPULARITY
Categories
We take a look at what the latest US sanctions could mean for Iran's trading partners. Plus, India's taking "express" action to bring down soaring onion prices, and Lego has built record sales. Presenter: Bisi Adebayo Producer: Barbara George
Top of mind for the Inside Economics team this week is the surge in long-term interest rates. Colleague Martin Wurm joins the conversation to unpack why rates have risen so sharply, assess whether the U.S. Treasury's efforts to stem the increase will work, and consider the risk of a much more serious bond market sell-off. Fundamentally, the only real solution is for the nation to address its darkening fiscal outlook. Hmmm…. Guest: Martin Wurm Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Long: Meteorologists warn a developing El Niño could be the strongest in living memory, with scientists saying next year could become the hottest on record. We look at what that could mean for businesses and global trade as low rainfall forces the Panama Canal to restrict shipping. Also, Premier League clubs spend billions on new players despite new financial rules. And how a low-budget animated film became an unlikely box-office hit in China. (Photo: Panama Canal Authority limits daily ship traffic due to El Nino drought, Panama City - 20 Aug 2026. Credit: EPA/Shutterstock
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including:What was Scott Bessent's Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short?What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds?Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis?Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt?How high could bond yields rise from here?Related contentRead: How to think about the bond market sell-offhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sellRead: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions
In this Conflicted Conversation, Ian Kumekawa (a fellow of Harvard University and a lecturer at MIT) talks about his book Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Ship. Ian explains: The offshore global economy: where loopholes, ships and responsibility slip beyond ordinary jurisdiction From Little Toot to rusting barges: how industrial capitalism lost its confident postwar world Sweden's socialist shipyards, private tax dodges, and the strange birth of the Vessel Containerisation's hidden cost: how global trade hollowed out Manhattan's working waterfront The Falklands War, Thatcherism, and the private infrastructure behind imperial sovereignty New York's floating prison: mass incarceration meets offshore legal ingenuity Wall Street goes offshore onshore: banks, deregulation and International Banking Facilities Neoliberalism, legality and injustice: when the modern economy makes the immoral lawful Visit Ian's website: www.iankumekawa.com Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/ Find us on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
There is no doubt that Chinese firms have made many advances in AI technology, but how far they can go in the future still is an open question.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/innovation-mirage-why-deepseek-and-kimi-3-do-not-settle-question-chinese-technological-supremacy
Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh's divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China's political economy today?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October's Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy.Related contentWhat taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitionsCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events
Jim Rickards returns for a wide-ranging macro conversation on a world where geopolitics and economics have fully merged. He lays out the US–Iran standoff as a global game of chicken — Trump betting Iran's economy breaks first, Iran betting the midterm elections break Trump first — and explains why he thinks Tehran holds the stronger hand, why regime change was always a fantasy, and how a handful of drones a week is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz bottled up. From there he turns to gold: how he used Jim Rogers' 50% drawdown rule and fractal scale invariance to call the bottom, why central bank buying puts a floor under the market, why gold works as a deflation hedge as well as an inflation hedge, and why he stands by his $10,000 target. He also dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, explains what Kevin Warsh's less transparent, market-following Fed means for investors conditioned to expect a rescue, and walks through the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — which he calls the most important story in the world right now, and the one most likely to make 2027 messy. The episode closes on the darker side of AI: increasingly sophisticated voice-cloned scams aimed at older Americans.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsVisit CallFort.io or download the app https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro: welcome back, Jim Rickards1:04 – Geopolitics and economics have merged: chokepoints and economic warfare3:30 – The US–Iran game of chicken: what each side is betting6:13 – Regime change isn't happening — and why killing leaders backfired10:42 – Lost credibility and the Iran–Oman deal the US wasn't part of14:41 – The midterm clock, and how Iran keeps the Strait closed17:23 – [Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals]19:04 – Gold's drawdown: the Jim Rogers 50% rule and fractal math24:04 – Why gold goes much higher — and the $10,000 call25:03 – What's driving gold: central banks, deflation, flat mine supply31:15 – Why the "debasement trade" narrative is wrong33:00 – Inside the primary dealer world and the old Fed35:00 – Kevin Warsh, killing the dot plot, and a whole new Fed38:16 – [Sponsor: Monetary Metals]40:03 – The Fed's only real job — and what Friedman got wrong44:13 – The yen carry trade: the most important story in the world48:55 – The petrodollar, Japan's Treasuries, and the Bessent bailout51:43 – Why currency defenses always fail, and why 2027 gets messy52:50 – AI, sophisticated scams, and the Callfort app59:10 – What's next: climbing Kilimanjaro
The $2.6 trillion spent on artificial intelligence, data centres and advanced chipmaking dwarfs the cost of previous infrastructure megaprojects. Yet AI has become a money pit for tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, and the tech is failing to hit its stratospheric targets. Could an AI crash take overinvested economies down with it? In the longer term, whose approach will dominate? Will it be the US's private-led model with tech giants at the top? Or China's tactic of spreading low-cost AI throughout the Global South, with an eye on dominating the future? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Alex Krasodomski, director of Chatham House's Digital Society Programme; James Kynge, a senior research fellow for China and the World with the Asia-Pacific Programme; and Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | What the UK should learn from Kimi K3, WAICO and the Hugging Face incident Comment | What the UK government should do on AI and tech policy Research paper | Breaking the deadlock on AI governance Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing
A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi.Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient.Related contentHow worried should investors be about Takaichi's policies?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policiesYour questions on Japan's markets answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answeredEM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026
Leland Yeager, an advocate of freely fluctuating fiat money, concedes that a 100 percent gold standard would end reserve drains, forced contraction, and balance-of-payments anxiety—problems he attributes to fractional reserves rather than to gold. Rothbard quotes him at length, asks why he rejects what he has just praised, and pushes the reductio further: where exactly is the geographical boundary of a money?
Rothbard places the 100 percent program in the classical economists and the currency school, and in the Jeffersonian and Jacksonian political tradition—figures he argues historians have miscast as economically ignorant agrarians. He credits Condy Raguet with seeing before the British that deposits are money substitutes too, and recovers the neglected Charles H. Carroll and Isaiah W. Sylvester.
Arif Husain and Blerina Uruci explore AI's macroeconomic consequences, including productivity, labor markets, inflation, rates, and the policy choices facing economies and societies.
In this episode of Around the World with Yusko, Mark explores whether AI is truly rewiring the global economy or whether investors are beginning to fall victim to another cycle of extrapolation and excess. Framed around the explosive growth in AI-related capital spending, he examines how hyperscalers, chipmakers, memory companies, and data center operators have become the primary drivers of both market performance and economic growth. He questions the sustainability of trillion-dollar AI infrastructure buildouts, challenges optimistic forecasts for AI's contribution to GDP, and highlights the growing dependence of major technology companies on debt and financial engineering to fund expansion. Along the way, he analyzes the rapid decline in AI model pricing, the rise of Chinese AI and semiconductor competitors, the global boom-and-bust cycle in memory stocks, and the extraordinary concentration of value creation in Taiwan, Korea, and a handful of technology leaders. While AI may ultimately transform the global economy, investors should be wary of assuming that today's winners, valuations, and growth rates can continue indefinitely. Want more? Watch the "Around The World With Yusko" webinar series live by contacting us at ir@morgancreekcap.com. Watch it after the fact at https://www.morgancreekcap.com/market-commentary/#investment-themes. Visit us on the web at https://www.morgancreekcap.com. Legal Disclaimer This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or as a solicitation for the sale of any security or any advisory or other service. Investments related to the themes and ideas discussed may be owned by funds managed by the host and podcast guests. Any conflicts mentioned by the host are subject to change. Listeners should consult their personal financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility.Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains why, despite the horrific scenes unfolding across southern Europe, this summer's wildfires are likely to have only a limited economic impact.Related contentThe renminbi could not rebalance China on its ownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/renminbi-could-not-rebalance-china-its-ownLittle macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfireshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/little-macroeconomic-impact-horrific-wildfires
Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggio examine the potential for unconventional warfare escalation across Eurasia and the specific risks within the Caspian theater. Haqqani warns that Iran's ability to hold the global economy hostage through the Red Sea and Hormuz Strait creates a complex dilemma for the US. Bill Roggio concurs that limited aerial bombardment is insufficient for regime change and notes that neighboring countries like Kuwait remain hesitant to directly engage for fear of retaliation. (2)
Today we explore the adoption and scaling of education technology across South and Southeast Asia. My guests are Molly Wyss and Brad Olsen. Molly Wyss is an assistant project director at the Centre for Universal Education in the Global Economy and Development Program at Brookings, where Brad Olsen is a Senior Fellow. There new report is entitled From Access to Impact: Government Decisionmaking and Scaling of EdTech in South and Southeast Asia. freshedpodcast.com/wyss-olsen -- Get in touch! LinkedIn: @FreshEdpodcast Facebook: FreshEd Email: info@freshedpodcast.com
Plus: SAP shares rise after earnings beat. And CATL profit surges on booming battery demand. Imani Moise hosts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China.Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and why global trade has remained surprisingly resilient.Shooting war: After oil $100 a barrel again, what are the implications for inflation and central banks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate?AI boom: How AI investment is now the major driver of growth in both the US and China, and what happens if the boom turns to bust? Related contentFed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until Septemberhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/rate-hikes-coming-not-until-septemberBank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in playhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/boe-watch-boe-hold-rates-energy-prices-keep-rate-hikes-playWhat is the future of US tariffs?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-future-us-tariffs
Stanford's Allen Weiner examines how the U.S. war with Iran raises questions about the president's power to wage war and negotiate peace. --- The American war with Iran began with ambitious goals, including preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and potentially bringing about regime change. But the conflict may well be leading to a very different outcome, according to Stanford Law School's Allen Weiner, a scholar of international and human rights law and former State Department lawyer. Just prior to the recent collapse of the tenuous cease fire, Weiner joined podcast host Professor Pam Karlan to discuss how the conflict is arguably strengthening Iran's most repressive factions while putting economic and diplomatic pressure on the United States. Weiner traces how the conflict grew out of the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, asks whether the new agreement with Iran amounts to a weaker version of that accord, and considers how ceasefires and shifting legal rationales have allowed the administration to sidestep Congress and keep the War Powers clock from running out. Allen Weiner >>> Stanford Law School Page Connect: Episode Transcripts >>> Stanford Legal Podcast Website Stanford Legal Podcast >>> LinkedIn Page Rich Ford >>> Twitter/X Pam Karlan >>> Stanford Law School Page Stanford Law School >>> Twitter/X Stanford Lawyer Magazine >>> Twitter/X Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:09 Back to the JCPOA—The 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal 00:04:23 From "worst deal ever" to a weaker one 00:04:51 Two rounds of strikes 00:07:11 Regime change that wasn't 00:08:40 The Strait of Hormuz and the global economy 00:09:49 Emboldened by Venezuela 00:11:33 Israel in, NATO out 00:12:27 The new MOU 00:14:31 Israel left off the page 00:17:38 Free transit, for now 00:19:06 Treaty or political commitment? 00:21:36 The War Powers loophole 00:24:26 Can Congress actually enforce the War Powers Act? 00:28:12 Conclusion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Energy Crisis and Oil Shortages (0:10) - Impact of Energy Shortages on Global Economy (3:56) - Geopolitical Implications and Military Strategy (7:05) - Engineered Famine and Global Collapse (13:24) - Preparation and Survival Strategies (55:13) - Geopolitical Manipulation and Propaganda (55:29) - Potential for Nuclear War and Its Impact (55:45) - The Role of Desalination Plants in Survival (56:05) - The Importance of Water Infrastructure (56:24) - The Role of Fertilizer and Food Supply (56:40) - Mosul Dam and Civilizational Reset (56:54) - Free Speech and Media Censorship (1:15:43) - Scenarios of Collapse and Survival (1:32:50) - Military and Strategic Implications (1:33:07) - Personal Preparedness and Survival Strategies (1:33:24) - Historical Context and Technological Advancements (1:39:03) - Economic and Technological Competitiveness (1:47:04) - Final Thoughts and Future Prospects (1:51:45) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:
Everything is getting worse, but the country hasn’t collapsed. This is all by design. Donald Trump is a useful idiot for the people behind the scenes and Project 2025, most notably Russell Vought. The Trump administration is using the nation’s finances like a personal piggy bank for themselves and large corporations while gutting agencies that provide critical services. The misconception is that Trump is driving things into the ground. He’s not. He’s just making things so shitty that the corporate state looks good in comparison. Resources ProPublica: “Their Entire Apparatus Is Exposed to Our Strategy” ProPublica: “We Want the Bureaucrats to Be Traumatically Affected” Yahoo: This Trump Official Promised To Traumatize Federal Workers — Watch His Words Come Back To Haunt Him The New York Times: Two Dead and Scores Rescued as Flooding Engulfs Central Texas IMF: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology ProPublica: “Put Them in Trauma”: Inside a Key MAGA Leader’s Plans for a New Trump Agenda The New York Times: Why Silicon Valley’s Most Powerful People Are So Obsessed With Hobbits U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M06 Results U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2026 M06 Results U.S. News: Trump Administration’s Changes to the CFPB Cost Americans $19B, a New Report Says KFF: In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year National Association of Realtors: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 5.4% Decrease in June The New York Times: Cyclospora Cases Rise Rapidly, With No Source Yet Confirmed The New Yorker: The Human Cost of DOGE’s War on U.S.A.I.D. The Washington Post: The gaps in CDC’s public health data are creating dangerous blind spots Axios: Measurement tweaks will make inflation data look better UNFTR Resources Episode: “Russputin” and the Tsar. Episode: Project 2025. Video: U.S. Financials in Free Fall | Graham, McConnell, and the Strait of Hormuz Video: Trump Is a Useful Idiot for the People Behind the Scenes. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AI investment is reshaping the global outlook. In part one of this economic roundtable, our panel explores where the momentum is strongest — and where investment still needs to catch up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Seth Carpenter: And today is going to be our third quarter economic roundtable taking a wide-angle view on the global economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. Seth Carpenter: It's Monday, July 20th at 10am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since our last roundtable in April, the global economy has continued to face all sorts of shocks, a mix of resilience and friction. Inflation pressures have not disappeared. Energy and geopolitical risks have come up, they've receded, they've come back, they've receded all over the place But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about. And that is the AI-driven CapEx cycle. Michael, let me turn to you because the U.S. is a real focal point of all of this. Tell me a little bit about where Morgan Stanley Research is thinking about hyperscaler CapEx. How big it is? And then for you, when you think about the U.S. economy, just how big of a driver is it for what we're looking for in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, we continue to revise higher our estimates for hyperscaler and AI-related CapEx in the U.S. economy. We were thinking a little over a trillion for 2027. Now we're more like 1.2 - 1.3 trillion, maybe as high as 1.4 trillion in 2028. So, the level of hyperscaler spending continues to keep rising. The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow. But as you noted, it's still a major driver of momentum in the U.S. You would look at that headline number and think, "Wow, that's, you know, 3.5 percent or so of GDP. Must be a massive source of momentum for GDP growth." But roughly about 60 percent of that hyperscaler CapEx spending goes to items like computers and peripherals, equipment spending categories that have a very, very high import content. We still get a significant number that AI CapEx is probably contributing around 40 basis points to growth this year. Be a similar-sized amount perhaps next year.So, for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above 2 percent right now, maybe closer to 2.5 percent next year, that's a non-trivial amount. We just have to remember it's fueling growth around the world, just not here in the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, "Well, if it wasn't for AI CapEx, the U.S. economy wouldn't have grown at all." And that's clearly wrong, as you point out. But U.S. imports are necessarily exports from somewhere else. And, Chetan, if I can pull you into the story then, U.S. firms are buying a lot of AI-related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in your part of the world? And in particular, I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan, and maybe some other economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? Chetan Ahya: So, for Asia, this has definitely been a big boon. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming, and particularly for the ones which are exporting semiconductors to the U.S. They are seeing semiconductor exports growing by 90 percent. And when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductor exports, it's very tightly linked to the U.S. IT CapEx. And it's not surprising when Mike Gapen mentions about the imports going up. It's on the other side, helping Asia's exports quite meaningfully. So, so far, we've seen this benefiting Korea, number one, Taiwan, and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of U.S. AI CapEx. And of course, also not just U.S., but the other countries which are doing any little amount of CapEx on AI front, that's also helping these three economies in the region. Seth Carpenter: You've been doing a lot of work, Chetan, recently about how much the story can actually broaden out, that the AI CapEx cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story that there's a broader industrial cycle. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor of that story? Chetan Ahya: That's right, Seth. So, we are actually highlighting that there is a CapEx and industrial super cycle that is underway in Asia, and there are four components to this story. AI and semiconductors CapEx, which we just briefly discussed. Number two is energy. Number three is defense. And number four is industrial supply chain onshoring related CapEx. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most important part of this story, but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that... So, for Asia, AI and semiconductor companies CapEx is about $380 billion in 2026, but energy CapEx is going to be $900 billion. So, this is a far broader story than just AI for Asia. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me come back to you and to the U.S. then. So, isn't the growth story also broader than that as well domestically? So, what's going on in terms of consumer spending in the U.S., and is there a broader CapEx story in the U.S. as well? Michael Gapen: I would say, is it broader than that? I think maybe you could argue also it's narrower than that. Here's what I mean by that. As I noted AI CapEx contributing about 40 basis points to growth, it's certainly underpinning equity valuations in the U.S. and underpinning strong wealth creation. So about [$]180 trillion in household net worth in the U.S. About [$]55 trillion of that has been created in just the last five years alone, underpinned in part by AI-related spending and optimism about future profitability. That's really supported spending by upper income households. So, I think it's both investment-led and consumer-led, but they're inextricably linked. So, the positive for the U.S. is that it's providing a lot of resilience. The negative component of that is it feels like momentum in the U.S. is narrowly driven. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let me maybe jump in here from Europe to provide some perspective from the other side. So, I think it's a fair summary to say that AI investment is not yet, or maybe will never get there, dominating the business cycle. What we do have instead is an unusually consumption-driven expansion. That has to do not so much with an extraordinary strength of consumption, but more of an absence of other factors. Now, prospectively looking forward, we think the fiscal expansion might help lifting us a little bit. And then it is really the debate how much AI investment can arrive in Europe. For now, I would say it's probably a factor of 20 that separates European investment plans from the plans we know that exist for the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Let me stick with you then in Europe because you brought up fiscal as one of the factors going on here and where it's going… You and your team recently wrote a blue paper talking about what the outlook is for fiscal policy in Europe, and in particular, we had this era of cheap debt. Interest rates in Europe were low, at times negative. It was super easy to borrow. Not as much happened then. There's been a shift towards more fiscal expansion at the same time that interest rates have gone up, causing the cost of debt to go up. Feels like there's a lot of push and pull going on. Can you unpack for us a little bit what was in that paper you wrote, what's going on with fiscal policy in Europe, especially in Germany? And what it might mean over time for Euro-area countries? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, so I think fiscal policy in Europe really is looking at a regime shift. So, there is this very famous, probably in the U.S. even more so than here, notion that the Europeans have built a very comfortable welfare state. And that's true if you just look at the accounting from a GDP perspective. It's close to 50 percent that, you know, budgets are actually extended on welfare spending. And now you have three structural headwinds for any type of fiscal spend. So, one is aging related costs, you mentioned it already. Defense spending has to increase significantly, and the interest rate costs will also rise significantly. All of that means there will be very hard choices to be made. The one thing that actually could help here is growth. Growth is the one thing that's, for now at least, missing, at least in comparison to the U.S. It's probably half what we expect, what the U.S. colleagues think is in stake for the U.S., and a quarter or even less than that of what is there in Asia. So, growth is really the key, the solution, the answer to everything in Europe. More growth than just 1 percent, which is potential, would help solving that fiscal challenge. For now, it looks really, really like an uphill battle. Returning to Germany, it's the one country that has a very good fiscal starting position. They are pushing a lot but they're to some extent pushing a string. So, even with the German huge fiscal package, given that private sector investments so far are absent, doesn't get us a ton of growth. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, maybe I'll come back to you before we close part one of this roundtable. The AI CapEx cycle started with AI, broadened out further. How long do you expect this cycle to last? How durable can it be? And how might it compare to previous CapEx cycles? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we think this will be a multi-year CapEx cycle. And when we are thinking about the duration of the cycle, there are two things that I would keep in mind. Number one is that most of the drivers that we just discussed – the CapEx on AI, energy, defense, and industrial supply chain onshoring related investments – these are all structural drivers. So, we think these are going to continue for some more time. At this point of time, we have the visibility for this cycle to be lasting for three-four more years. And then the second point of framework that I would keep in mind is that the corporate balance sheets are in a pretty good shape. So, when you are thinking about the leverage in the private sector, you can look at both households and the corporate sector balance sheet. But since the cycle is CapEx driven, we are looking at the corporate balance sheets, and they are in a pretty good shape. Across the region, corporate debt to GDP is below where it was in 2019. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me, let me wrap up quickly with you. We talked about AI, AI CapEx. For now, that's a very strong demand story. When are we going to see a supply side of things coming from AI? Are you already seeing a big contribution to GDP and growth from productivity coming from AI? Michael Gapen: We are, but not outside of the high-tech sectors, and we're seeing limited, what I'll call labor market restructuring of tasks and occupations beyond high AI-exposed occupations. So right now, everything is still very isolated I think maybe as we get into 2029 and beyond, so as Chetan says, we probably have a three to four-year super cycle here around a build-out phase. Then we might see some of that broader-based diffusion to other non-tech sectors in the economy. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, for you, let's wrap up here. So, what is the state of play for the build-out in the CapEx cycle for AI in Europe? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's very early stages. As I said before, we really; we connected to all the industry experts or analysts covering the sector and the total plans are a factor of 20 below what we see in the U.S. by just the seven hyperscalers. So, I would say very fragmented, very small, in general. Not only AI. I think the one thing I would be looking at for any type of sign of revival, sign of growth is investment. The second would be investment. And you can guess what the third would be… Investments in the core countries. That's really what we need to see, and we haven't seen much in Germany or France on this front. Seth Carpenter:That's a great place for us to stop today. We talked about the real side of the economy, AI, CapEx, trade. Tomorrow we're going to come back, and we'll talk about how that growth outlook affects inflation. And once you start talking about growth and inflation, you got to talk about policy, and that's where we'll be tomorrow. Mike, Jens, and Chetan, thank you for joining today. And for the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for Part 2 of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
The US government continues to drag down the economy with its reckless wars and massive debt accumulation. On the other side of the globe, China is pursuing a different path.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/quiet-rise-chinese-innovation
The US government continues to drag down the economy with its reckless wars and massive debt accumulation. On the other side of the globe, China is pursuing a different path.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/quiet-rise-chinese-innovation
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Kimmy K3 AI Model and Solar Project Updates (0:02) - Recommendations for Solar Equipment and Pekron Solar Well Power Station (8:21) - Global Famine Prediction for 2027 (14:59) - Impact of the War on Food Supply and Global Economy (38:40) - Formation of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) (41:54) - Challenges and Opportunities for WAICO (54:35) - Comparison of Western and Eastern AI Development (54:56) - Potential Risks and Benefits of AI Development (1:12:39) - Personal Reflections and Call to Action (1:15:21) - Conclusion and Future Outlook (1:21:05) - Kimi K3 vs. Anthropic: Performance and Cost Comparison (1:21:24) - China's AI Advancements and Collaboration (1:30:15) - Cultural Differences and AI Development (1:32:32) - Economic and Political Implications of AI Development (1:46:52) - Zach Voorhees on AI and Government Influence (2:01:22) - AI Cybersecurity and Ethical Concerns (2:13:07) - The Future of AI and Humanity (2:14:49) - Preparing for the AI Future (2:20:28) - The Role of Open-Source AI Models (2:20:42) - The Impact of AI on Global Competition (2:36:02) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:
Despite an ongoing war and shifting interest rate expectations, equity market performance favored small- and mid-cap stocks during the first half of 2026. Bob Carey explains some of the reasons this shift has occurred and breaks down the risks and opportunities on the horizon.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Subscribe Here to the ROI Podcast & other First Trust Market News Website: First Trust PortfoliosConnect with us on LinkedIn: First Trust LinkedInFollow us on X: First Trust on XSubscribe to the First Trust YouTube ChannelSubscribe to the ROI Podcast YouTube Channel
A lot of attention has been given to the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran's closure in response to attacks by the U.S. and Israel. But another key strait in the region, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen, has also been threatened with a shutdown, and it's similarly vital to trade. Thomas Juneau is a professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. As an expert on Yemen and the Houthis, Juneau discusses the importance of the strait, the relationship between Iran and the Houthis, and what it would mean if the Bab al-Mandeb Strait were closed. This episode originally aired April 8, 2026. Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at thedecibel@globeandmail.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy.Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front.Related contentThe implications of a renewed closure of the Straithttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/implications-renewed-closure-straitGlobal Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergencehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/us-strength-points-renewed-policy-divergence-0UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-burnham-government-will-policy-ambition-collide-economic-realityWhy Burnham will struggle to revive UK growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/why-burnham-will-struggle-revive-uk-growth
History says yes. We rewind to 1873, when a stock market wobble in Vienna triggered a global railway crash that took down banks, empires and 80% of world lending in a matter of months, and ask whether we're staring straight at a rerun. AI spending is now bigger than the entire US defence budget, the same handful of companies are quietly funding each other in a circle, and China is quietly open-sourcing the whole thing to undercut Silicon Valley. If it pops, it'll pop between now and October. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Canada and the U.S. strike a deal to finally open the Gordie Howe Bridge as days of renewed strikes in the Strait of Hormuz renew global economic concerns. Economist Justin Wolfers joins Power & Politics to evaluate how this now reignited conflict is weighing on the global economy. Plus, we get Conservative reaction to the Prime Minister's big week of investment deals.
Key Topics Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran Whether the Strait of Hormuz could become a toll-based choke point NATO unity, Trump's unpredictability, and Europe's response Greenland tensions and the future of transatlantic relations Russia's fuel crisis, drone strikes, and domestic pressure on Putin The broader shift toward rearmament and a more fragmented world order Links Karin Axelsson - https://politiken.dk/person/7961_Karin_Axelsson Anna Sauerbrey - https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/anna-sauerbrey Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/ Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Collapsing Building in New York City (0:10) - Impact on Downtown Manhattan (5:35) - Senator Mitch McConnell's Health and Political Speculations (11:33) - War in the Middle East (17:49) - Economic and Energy Crisis (24:07) - Impact on Global Economy and Food Supply (30:34) - Vaccine Safety and Assault on Science (36:57) - Parental Rights and Vaccine Injury Cases (43:35) - Health Freedom and Homeschooling (50:30) - Gender Ideology and Medical Records (57:22) - Oregon's New Law and Gender Ideology (1:04:08) - Political Stances on Child Health (1:10:51) - Promotion of Children's Health Defense and Upcoming Book (1:17:19) - Bright Answers.ai and Lab Facilities (1:23:34) - Financial Advice and Gold Investment (1:29:47) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:
How the Industrial Revolution and foreign investment made some nations rich while others stayed poor, closing with Mises's defense of capitalism—not because capitalists are good people, but because the market economy benefits mankind and safeguards freedom.
Andrew Ross Sorkin began his career at the forefront of Wall Street news, reporting extensively for The New York Times on the financial crash of 2008 and its chaotic aftermath. His expert journalism has since established him as a leading voice on economics, finance and corporate America. As the founder of DealBook, he helps make sense of major business and policy news through nuanced conversations with the biggest newsmakers in the world, from Elon Musk and Lebron James, to Kim Kardashian and Hillary Clinton. In June 2026, Sorkin came to the Intelligence Squared in conversation with Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, to discuss the forces and events shaping today's world. Drawing from his new book 1929, he discussed why the Wall Street crash of the 1920s has a lot to tell us about our current economic moment with its cycles of speculation and technological change. --- If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events ... Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
China's 15th Five-Year Plan sets the course for the country's next stage of economic development, with a stronger focus on domestic demand, innovation, green transition, and high-quality growth. What are China's top priorities over the next five years? How will the new plan shape China's economy and influence the global economic landscape amid rising geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty?
Andrew Ross Sorkin began his career at the forefront of Wall Street news, reporting extensively for The New York Times on the financial crash of 2008 and its chaotic aftermath. His expert journalism has since established him as a leading voice on economics, finance and corporate America. As the founder of DealBook, he helps make sense of major business and policy news through nuanced conversations with the biggest newsmakers in the world, from Elon Musk and Lebron James, to Kim Kardashian and Hillary Clinton. In June 2026, Sorkin came to the Intelligence Squared in conversation with Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, to discuss the forces and events shaping today's world. Drawing from his new book 1929, he discussed why the Wall Street crash of the 1920s has a lot to tell us about our current economic moment with its cycles of speculation and technological change. This is the first instalment of a two-part episode. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events ... Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
We're looking into economic trends with audio from KMOX in St. Louis, Tommy Tucker at WWL in New Orleans and KCBS Radio in the Bay Area.
We're looking into economic trends with audio from KMOX in St. Louis, Tommy Tucker at WWL in New Orleans and KCBS Radio in the Bay Area.
We're looking into economic trends with audio from KMOX in St. Louis, Tommy Tucker at WWL in New Orleans and KCBS Radio in the Bay Area.
We're looking into economic trends with audio from KMOX in St. Louis, Tommy Tucker at WWL in New Orleans and KCBS Radio in the Bay Area.
We're looking into economic trends with audio from KMOX in St. Louis, Tommy Tucker at WWL in New Orleans and KCBS Radio in the Bay Area.
Alan Greenspan just died at 100, and he might be the most consequential person of the last 30 years that nobody talks about. We unpack the wild story of the jazz clarinettist turned Fed chairman, the Ayn Rand cult he came from, the "Greenspan Put" that quietly rigged Wall Street, and why his fingerprints are all over Ireland's 2008 crash. Plus a strange historical twist: was Alan Greenspan related to the Jewish teenager whose shooting triggered Kristallnacht? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
When the Iran war broke out, we were warned of an oil shock not seen since the 1970s when fuel was rationed. We were told the price of oil could reach $200 a barrel and airlines might ground planes. But that hasn't happened and now petrol prices are back down to where they were before the war. Today the ABC's Laura Tingle on how China is cushioning the world economy. Featured: Laura Tingle, ABC Global Affairs Editor
Mark and Marisa dissect the raft of economic data released this past week, and debate what it means for the outlook. Chris joins the conversation and weighs in on where oil prices will settle. The group plays the Stats game – some tough stats. The discussion ends with Mark peppering our new colleague, Colin Ellis, with wide-ranging questions about the global economy. Guests: Chris Lafakis and Colin Ellis Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Episode 5455: The Lies Of Iran; The War Altered The Global Economy
The big news of the week is undoubtedly President Trump's deal with Iran to bring an end to the war that has seen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint, shut for months. This agreement, as experts have been keen to point out, is just a start, creating a process for opening the Strait of Hormuz in the short run, and laying out a sixty-day timetable to address many other outstanding issues. What will this mean for constraining Iran's nuclear ambitions? How will it impact Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon? What will it mean for a rattled global economy that's seen global trade disrupted and energy prices shoot up? How will a deal impact Europe, Greece and Cyprus? These are just a few questions swirling around in the wake of this deal. Steven Cook, Vassilis Nedos, Ian Lesser, and Maria Demertzis join Thanos Davelis as we try to answer these questions, breaking down what this deal could mean for Washington, for the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, for Europe, and for the global economy. A little more info on our guests: Steven Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Vassilis Nedos is Kathimerini's diplomatic and defense editor. Ian Lesser is the vice president and Brussels chief of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Maria Demertzis is a Professor of Economic Policy at the European University Institute. You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here.
Bob sits down with economists Alexander Salter and Joshua Hendrickson to discuss their new paper arguing that the standard Austrian critique of the Fed while correct, is fundamentally incomplete. They argue that the Fed's actual institutional role is to backstop U.S. dollar hegemony: the deliberately constructed post-Bretton Woods system in which the dollar serves as the world's reserve currency, U.S. Treasuries as the global safe asset, and the Fed as buyer of last resort for sovereign debt worldwide.Related:Hendrickson & Salter, "Should We End the Fed? Can We?": Mises.org/HAP553a
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Financial Analysis of OpenAI and Market Dependence (0:10) - SoftBank's Investment and Market Risks (7:33) - Comparison with Amazon and AI Model Development (14:10) - Economic and Technological Challenges (21:10) - Impact on Global Economy and AI Development (27:49) - The Great Stupining and Technological Dependence (34:12) - Interview with Professor Morandi on Middle East Conflict (40:00) - Netanyahu's Political Future and US-Israel Relations (46:17) - Cultural Cohesion and Resilience in Iran (52:52) - Conclusion and Call for Peace (59:40) - American Perception of International Relations (1:06:48) - Impact of American Policies on International Relations (1:13:48) - Decline of American Infrastructure and Global Reputation (1:20:51) - Call for Change and Peace (1:26:35) - Financial Advice and Conclusion (1:33:03) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here: