Podcasts about Economics

John Fitzgerald, Adjunct Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin, joins Bobby to assess whether the cup is half full or half empty when it comes to the Irish economy and public finances.

Stock tickers may not immediately price in uncertainty during times of geopolitical volatility. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests a different indicator to watch.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about how we're trying to simplify the complicated questions of recent geopolitical events.It's Friday, June 27th at 2pm in London.Recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran and the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel have dominated the headlines. The situation is complicated, uncertain, and ever changing. From the time that this episode is recorded to when you listen to it, conditions may very well have changed again.Geopolitical events such as this one often have a serious human, social and financial cost, but they do not consistently have an impact on markets. As analysis by my colleague, Michael Wilson and his team have shown, over a number of key geopolitical events over the last 30 years, the impact on the S&P 500 has often been either fleeting or somewhat non-existent. Other factors, in short, dominate markets.So how to deal with this conundrum? How to take current events seriously while respecting that historical precedent that they often can have more limited market impact? How to make a forecast when quite simply few investors feel like they have an edge in predicting where these events will go next?In our view, the best way to simplify the market's response is to watch oil prices. Oil remains an important input to the world economy, where changes in price are felt quickly by businesses and consumers.So when we look back at past geopolitical events that did move markets in a more sustained way, a large increase in oil prices often meaning a rise of more than 75 percent year-over-year was often part of the story. Such a rise in such an important economic input in such a short period of time increases the risk of recession; something that credit markets and many other markets need to care about. So how can we apply this today?Well, for all the seriousness and severity of the current conflict, oil prices are actually down about 20 percent relative to a year ago. This simply puts current conditions in a very different category than those other periods be they the 1970s or more recently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine that represented genuine oil price shocks. Why is oil down? Well, as my colleague Martin Rats referred to on an earlier episode of this program, oil markets do have very healthy levels of supply, which is helping to cushion these shocks.With oil prices actually lower than a year ago, we think the credit will focus on other things. To the positive, we see an alignment of a few short-term positive factors, specifically a pretty good balance of supply and demand in the credit market, low realized volatility, and a historically good window in the very near term for performance. Indeed, over the last 15 years, July has represented the best month of the year for returns in both investment grade and high yield credit in both the U.S. and in Europe.And what could disrupt this? Well, a significant spike in oil prices could be one culprit, but we think a more likely catalyst is a shift of those favorable conditions, which could happen from August and beyond. From here, Morgan Stanley economists' forecasts see a worsening mix of growth in inflation in the U.S., while seasonal return patterns to flip from good to bad.In the meantime, however, we will keep watching oil.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Once constrained by grown-ups in the room, Trump now surrounds himself with suckups. The result? A perfect storm of immaturity, cruelty, and power…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Vaccine deniers, pseudo-scientists, and social media gadflys are taking control of protecting our nation from disease and ill health- what could possibly go wrong?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mark, Marisa, and colleague Adam Kamins are joined by Ivy Zelman to discuss the housing market outlook. Ivy sheds light on a wide variety of topics, including disappointing demand, the persistent drag from mortgage rate lock, and a lack of listings, adding up to a bearish outlook for prices and sales. The group also touches on regional differences, why builders are pulling back, and the effect of policy changes around tariffs and immigration. Along the way, Marisa and Adam learn the answers to a few existential questions, including “Why am I here?”Guest: Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President of Zelman & Associates, a Walker & Dunlop CompanyHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn   Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

While L2 rollups did help scale Ethereum, they also created siloed ecosystems, all fighting over the same liquidity, users and devs. t1 Protocol is building layer-2 infrastructure to achieve seamless cross-rollup interoperability through real-time proving, powered by TEEs. t1's low-latency with 1-second block times provides faster preconfirmations, significantly improving UX, all while maintaining full Ethereum composability.Topics covered in this episode:Can's backgroundWhy Enigma/Secret Network built on CosmosSolving Ethereum's liquidity fragmentationt1's rollup & real-time proving in TEEsSequencer setup inside the TEEDealing with other rollup trust assumptionsIntegrating new L2sPermissionless TEEsPotential attack vectorsTEE alternativesAsset issuance on mainnet vs. L2st1 developmentPartnerships & BDSolana vs. Ethereum UXTEE misconceptionsEpisode links:Can Kisagun on Xt1 Protocol on XSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus One: one of the largest node operators worldwide, trusted by 175,000+ accounts across more than 60 networks, Chorus One combines institutional-grade security with the highest yields at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.

Episode Overview In this episode, SEIA CEO Abby Hopper discusses the current state of solar policy amid Congress's reconciliation efforts, emphasizing critical priorities like preserving the “commenced construction” timeline, extending and smoothing the ITC phase‑down. Though recognizing short-term uncertainty and potential industry turbulence, Abby remains optimistic about long-term demand, technological innovation, and the growing role of solar+storage in a reliable, affordable energy future.   Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy and he is also an advisor for several solar startup companies.  He has extensive project origination, development, and financial experience in the renewable energy industry and in the environmental commodities market.   This includes initial site evaluation, permitting, financing, sourcing equipment, and negotiating the long-term energy and environmental commodities off-take agreements. He manages due diligence processes on land, permitting, and utility interconnection and is in charge of financing and structuring through Note to Proceed (“NTP”) to Commercial Operation Date (“COD”). Benoy composes teams suitable for all project development and construction tasks. He is also involved in project planning and pipeline financial modeling. He has been part of all sides of the transaction and this allows him to provide unique perspectives and value. Benoy has extensive experience in financial engineering to make solar projects profitable. Before founding Reneu Energy, he was the SREC Trader in the Project Finance Group for SolarCity which merged with Tesla in 2016.  He originated SREC trades with buyers and co-developed their SREC monetization and hedging strategy with the senior management of SolarCity to move into the east coast markets.  Benoy was the Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners which is a national solar installer where he focused on project finance solutions for commercial scale solar projects.  He also worked for Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund, where he analyzed potential investments in renewable energy projects and worked on maximizing the financial return of the projects in the portfolio.  Benoy also worked on the sale of all of the renewable energy projects in Ridgewood's portfolio.   He was in the Energy Structured Finance practice for Deloitte & Touche and in Financial Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young.  Benoy received his first experience in Finance as an intern at D.E. Shaw & Co., which is a global investment firm with 37 billion dollars in investment capital. He has a MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from the Stern School of Business at New York University.  Benoy was an Alumni Scholar at the Stern School of Business.  Abby Hopper Abigail Ross Hopper is the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the national trade organization for America's solar and storage industry. Ms. Hopper is a visionary leader who has transformed SEIA into an advocacy powerhouse and the leading voice for the U.S. solar and storage industry, a $64 billion force in our nation's economy.   Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: info@reneuenergy.com  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com   Abby Hopper Website: Follow SEIA at seia.org and solarpowersamerica.org savemainstreetsolar.org Linkedin:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/abby-hopper-a3415527/   Call to Action for Mavericks Make your voice heard—CALL or WRITE your member(s) and senators  urging support for: Commenced construction carve-outs FEOC practical solutions Extended ITC phase-out schedules Share real-life impacts—highlight project/job delays, supply chain headaches, business planning peril. Participate in grassroots campaigns — sign up for Save Main Street Solar, engage in local/regional advocacy.

The Roundtable Panel: a daily open discussion of issues in the news and beyond. Today's panelists are Partner with the Albany law firm of Whiteman Osterman & Hanna, Cianna Freeman-Tolbert, Professional speaker, speaking coach and Albany County legislator Mark Grimm, and Aaron Pacitti is Professor of Economics at Siena College.

What do a barracks for British troops in the Falklands War, a floating jail off the Bronx, and temporary housing for VW factory workers in Germany have in common? The Balder Scapa: a single barge that served all three roles. Though the name would eventually change to Finnboda 12. And then to Safe Esperia. And later on, to the Bibby Resolution. And after that . . . in short, a vessel with so many names, and so many fates, that to keep it in our sights—as the protagonist of this fascinating economic parable—Ian Kumekawa has no choice but to call it, simply, the Vessel.Despite its sturdy steel structure, weighing 9,500 deadweight tons, the Vessel is a figure as elusive and abstract as the offshore market it comes to embody: a world of island tax havens, exploited labor forces, free banking zones, Thatcherism, Reaganomics, and mass incarceration, where even the prisoners are held offshore. Fitted with modular shipping containers, themselves the product of standardized global trade, the ship could become whatever the market demanded. Whether caught in an international dispute involving Hong Kong, Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Virgin Islands—to be settled in an English court of law—or flying yet another foreign “flag of convenience” to mask its ownership—the barge is ever a container for forces much larger than even its hulking self.Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Barge is a jaw-dropping microhistory that speaks volumes about the global economy as a whole. In following the Vessel—and its Sister Vessel, built alongside it in Stockholm—from one thankless task to the next, Kumekawa connects the dots of a neoliberal world order in the making, where regulation is for suckers and “Made in USA” feels almost quaint. Dr. Ian Kumekawa is a historian of economic thinking, capitalism, and empire. He is currently an Anniversary Fellow at the Center for History and Economics at Harvard University and a Lecturer in History at MIT. He previously published a book called 'The First Serious Optimist' about Pigou and the birth of welfare economics. His second book, which we will discuss today is called, Empty Vessel: The Global Economy in One Barge, came out with Knopf and John Murray in May 2025. Sidney Michelini is a post-doctoral researcher working on Ecology, Climate, and Violence at the Peace Research Institute of Frankfurt (PRIF). Book Recomendations: The Dawn Watch: Joseph Conrad in a Global World by Maya JasanoffThe Toxic Ship:The Voyage of the Khian Sea and the Global Waste Trade by Simone M. MüllerThe Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks the World by Atossa Araxia Abrahamian Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Whether you are looking at the link from education to economic growth, household earnings or individual happiness, there's no doubt that a better-educated population is good news. But how can policy improve education in a cost-effective way? You might assume that a good route would be to improve the management of schools, but existing research is not conclusive, and often top-down attempts to improve management meets opposition from administrators. An experiment in Brazil has evaluated a program to improve management using existing resources in Rio de Janeiro. Tiago Cavalcanti, of University of Cambridge, Sao Paulo School of Economics & CEPR, and Felipe Puccioni of the Court of Accounts of Rio de Janeiro came up with the experiment, and they tell Tim Phillips about why universal education doesn't necessarily mean universal learning – and how they became celebrities on national television when their successful project hit the headlines.

What do a barracks for British troops in the Falklands War, a floating jail off the Bronx, and temporary housing for VW factory workers in Germany have in common? The Balder Scapa: a single barge that served all three roles. Though the name would eventually change to Finnboda 12. And then to Safe Esperia. And later on, to the Bibby Resolution. And after that . . . in short, a vessel with so many names, and so many fates, that to keep it in our sights—as the protagonist of this fascinating economic parable—Ian Kumekawa has no choice but to call it, simply, the Vessel.Despite its sturdy steel structure, weighing 9,500 deadweight tons, the Vessel is a figure as elusive and abstract as the offshore market it comes to embody: a world of island tax havens, exploited labor forces, free banking zones, Thatcherism, Reaganomics, and mass incarceration, where even the prisoners are held offshore. Fitted with modular shipping containers, themselves the product of standardized global trade, the ship could become whatever the market demanded. Whether caught in an international dispute involving Hong Kong, Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Virgin Islands—to be settled in an English court of law—or flying yet another foreign “flag of convenience” to mask its ownership—the barge is ever a container for forces much larger than even its hulking self.Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Barge is a jaw-dropping microhistory that speaks volumes about the global economy as a whole. In following the Vessel—and its Sister Vessel, built alongside it in Stockholm—from one thankless task to the next, Kumekawa connects the dots of a neoliberal world order in the making, where regulation is for suckers and “Made in USA” feels almost quaint. Dr. Ian Kumekawa is a historian of economic thinking, capitalism, and empire. He is currently an Anniversary Fellow at the Center for History and Economics at Harvard University and a Lecturer in History at MIT. He previously published a book called 'The First Serious Optimist' about Pigou and the birth of welfare economics. His second book, which we will discuss today is called, Empty Vessel: The Global Economy in One Barge, came out with Knopf and John Murray in May 2025. Sidney Michelini is a post-doctoral researcher working on Ecology, Climate, and Violence at the Peace Research Institute of Frankfurt (PRIF). Book Recomendations: The Dawn Watch: Joseph Conrad in a Global World by Maya JasanoffThe Toxic Ship:The Voyage of the Khian Sea and the Global Waste Trade by Simone M. MüllerThe Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks the World by Atossa Araxia Abrahamian Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

The White House announces a potential extension to the reciprocal tariffs deadline. This could include the 50 per cent levy on the European Union. The EC president, Ursula Von Der Leyen confirms she has received Washington's proposal of new trade discussions but struck a cautious tone ahead of any resumption in dialogue. The U.S. dollar sinks to a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling with markets now mulling the potential appointment of a more doveish Federal Reserve chairman by the U.S. president.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What do a barracks for British troops in the Falklands War, a floating jail off the Bronx, and temporary housing for VW factory workers in Germany have in common? The Balder Scapa: a single barge that served all three roles. Though the name would eventually change to Finnboda 12. And then to Safe Esperia. And later on, to the Bibby Resolution. And after that . . . in short, a vessel with so many names, and so many fates, that to keep it in our sights—as the protagonist of this fascinating economic parable—Ian Kumekawa has no choice but to call it, simply, the Vessel.Despite its sturdy steel structure, weighing 9,500 deadweight tons, the Vessel is a figure as elusive and abstract as the offshore market it comes to embody: a world of island tax havens, exploited labor forces, free banking zones, Thatcherism, Reaganomics, and mass incarceration, where even the prisoners are held offshore. Fitted with modular shipping containers, themselves the product of standardized global trade, the ship could become whatever the market demanded. Whether caught in an international dispute involving Hong Kong, Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Virgin Islands—to be settled in an English court of law—or flying yet another foreign “flag of convenience” to mask its ownership—the barge is ever a container for forces much larger than even its hulking self.Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Barge is a jaw-dropping microhistory that speaks volumes about the global economy as a whole. In following the Vessel—and its Sister Vessel, built alongside it in Stockholm—from one thankless task to the next, Kumekawa connects the dots of a neoliberal world order in the making, where regulation is for suckers and “Made in USA” feels almost quaint. Dr. Ian Kumekawa is a historian of economic thinking, capitalism, and empire. He is currently an Anniversary Fellow at the Center for History and Economics at Harvard University and a Lecturer in History at MIT. He previously published a book called 'The First Serious Optimist' about Pigou and the birth of welfare economics. His second book, which we will discuss today is called, Empty Vessel: The Global Economy in One Barge, came out with Knopf and John Murray in May 2025. Sidney Michelini is a post-doctoral researcher working on Ecology, Climate, and Violence at the Peace Research Institute of Frankfurt (PRIF). Book Recomendations: The Dawn Watch: Joseph Conrad in a Global World by Maya JasanoffThe Toxic Ship:The Voyage of the Khian Sea and the Global Waste Trade by Simone M. MüllerThe Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks the World by Atossa Araxia Abrahamian Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

Hosted by Simon Oates, Leader of Economics at PwC UK, this episode of Economics in Business brings you a data-driven exploration of the UK economy's brightest levers and its toughest hurdles. Join Simon as he challenges:Barret Kupelian, PwC's Chief Economist UK, on why real wages are rising faster than wallets feel—and what it means for consumer demand.Andy Haldane, PwC Special Advisor and former Bank of England Chief Economist, on the sharp contrast between sluggish goods exports and booming services—and the policy choices ahead.Together, they dissect:Rising pay packets vs. muted spendingThe goods vs. services export boomBritain's decade long productivity puzzle

Rebecca Homkes of Duke Corporate Education and London Business School joins the show to discuss how economic and trade policy chaos is hindering strategic decision-making in global firms. Rebecca shares how to spot the CEOs who are genuinely thinking ahead—those who anchor their choices in beliefs and prepare to adapt as conditions change. We also explore AI's real value in business: not just saving time, but repurposing it for higher-value work and strategic growth.Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via contact@economicsexplored.com.TimestampsIntroduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)Manufacturing Jobs vs. Manufacturing Capacity (1:03)CEO Strategic Paralysis and Policy Uncertainty (16:31)Regulation and Economic Policy (16:47)Vision for the Future and National Security Concerns (20:10)CEO Strategies in Uncertain Times (23:36)Exemplars of Strategic Preparation (28:08)Impact of AI on Business Strategy (36:56)Challenges in AI Adoption (47:51)Future of Jobs and AI (49:57)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (52:01)TakeawaysChaos breeds inaction – CEOs facing policy and geopolitical uncertainty often freeze, avoiding significant investments due to a lack of clarity.AI's true value lies in repurposed time – Businesses should measure AI's success not by time saved, but by how that time is used for higher-value tasks.Strategic beliefs drive resilient planning – The best-performing organisations base decisions on articulated beliefs, not reactive responses.Links relevant to the conversationRebecca's website:https://www.rebeccahomkes.com/Rebecca's book Survive, Reset, Thrive:https://www.surviveresetthrive.com/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee's Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

News...Dear Leader was proud of Hegseth in Iran news briefing or should be call it a media berating briefing? Trump is now limiting intelligence sharing - can we still call it "intelligence?" Surprise - US is ending all overseas pro-democracy programs. Britain's migrant crisis is fueled by Moscow and Guess what!? GOP suddenly realizes voters hate the health care cuts. Is Zohran Mamdani Too Extreme? Or Just What NYC Needs? Phil Ittner - Ukraine Update. This is what happens when cops look and behave like criminals.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If fighting for housing, dignity, and a livable future is radical, then it's way past time we all got a little more radical...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Has the City of New York gone nuts? What does the Democratic primary for mayor mean for the rest of the party and the country? Then we take a deep dive into the unethical practice of short selling stocks with John Welborn, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Dartmouth College and David Lauer of Urvin Finance. […]

Sorry, you're not worth much.      To advertise on our podcast, please reach out to sales@advertisecast.com or visit https://www.advertisecast.com/TheJeffWardShow

In this episode, Benoy Thanjan speaks with João Barreto, CEO of EDPR NA Distributed Generation, at the ACORE Finance Forum. They explore the rapid evolution of distributed generation (DG) in the U.S., community solar market trends, and how EDPR is deploying capital to meet growing clean energy demand. Topics Covered: The origin and growth of EDPR NA DG and its 12 GW+ installed capacity in North America Why distributed generation is a key complement to utility-scale solar and wind EDPR's strategic focus on Northeast and California DG markets Insights on the impact of the House tax bill on renewable investment timelines The policy-driven nature of community solar, and why California's program rollback was a missed opportunity EDPR's balanced strategy between greenfield development and co-development partnerships The challenge of navigating interconnection and permitting inconsistency across the U.S. How EDPR differentiates in the DG space through experience, local presence, and global customer relationships Perspectives on integrating storage with DG, and current limitations in markets like New York Key Quote: “Distributed generation is policy-driven—and understanding how to position in the right markets at the right time is what creates long-term value.” – João Barreto   Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy and he is also an advisor for several solar startup companies.  He has extensive project origination, development, and financial experience in the renewable energy industry and in the environmental commodities market.   This includes initial site evaluation, permitting, financing, sourcing equipment, and negotiating the long-term energy and environmental commodities off-take agreements. He manages due diligence processes on land, permitting, and utility interconnection and is in charge of financing and structuring through Note to Proceed (“NTP”) to Commercial Operation Date (“COD”). Benoy composes teams suitable for all project development and construction tasks. He is also involved in project planning and pipeline financial modeling. He has been part of all sides of the transaction and this allows him to provide unique perspectives and value. Benoy has extensive experience in financial engineering to make solar projects profitable. Before founding Reneu Energy, he was the SREC Trader in the Project Finance Group for SolarCity which merged with Tesla in 2016.  He originated SREC trades with buyers and co-developed their SREC monetization and hedging strategy with the senior management of SolarCity to move into the east coast markets.  Benoy was the Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners which is a national solar installer where he focused on project finance solutions for commercial scale solar projects.  He also worked for Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund, where he analyzed potential investments in renewable energy projects and worked on maximizing the financial return of the projects in the portfolio.  Benoy also worked on the sale of all of the renewable energy projects in Ridgewood's portfolio.   He was in the Energy Structured Finance practice for Deloitte & Touche and in Financial Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young.  Benoy received his first experience in Finance as an intern at D.E. Shaw & Co., which is a global investment firm with 37 billion dollars in investment capital. He has a MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from the Stern School of Business at New York University.  Benoy was an Alumni Scholar at the Stern School of Business.  João Salvação Barreto Chief Executive Officer, EDPR NA Distributed Generation João Salvação Barreto is the CEO of EDPR North America Distributed Generation, the distributed solar and storage business unit of EDP Renewables NA. Promoted to this role in June 2024, Barreto leads a fast-growing platform that manages over 280 MW AC of solar and storage assets across 25 U.S. states—with substantial expansions in key markets like New York, Maine, and Illinois.  He joined EDP in 2014 as part of its Global M&A and Corporate Development group. Over the next decade, he held leadership roles including Chief Commercial Officer, during which he oversaw major acquisitions such as Sunseap (now EDPR APAC) and C2 (now EDPR NA DG). He also chaired EDP's Investment Committee from 2020 to 2023, guiding the company's strategic investment priorities João's professional experience spans 23 years in real estate, 13 years in medical investments, and work in the defense industry, where he built relationships with international governments and organizations He holds a degree from the Nova School of Business and Economics and is fluent in leveraging his multidisciplinary background to advance distributed solar finance, partnerships, and grid resilience  Under his leadership, EDPR NA DG is focused on expanding its community solar, C&I, and behind-the-meter portfolios while emphasizing partnerships, innovation, and operational excellence. João is a frequent participant and speaker at industry finance events, including the Financial Times/Nikkei Investing in America Summit and Infocast Solar Power Finance & Investment forums, where he highlights the importance of distributed generation in the energy transition   Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: info@reneuenergy.com  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com   João Salvação Barreto Website:  https://www.edp.com/en Linkedin:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/joão-salvação-barreto-90929a3b/ WRISE 20th Anniversary Gala Date & Time: Thursday, June 26, 2025 from 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM Location: Gotham Hall, New York City Occasion: Celebrating 20 years of championing women and underrepresented groups in the renewable & sustainable energy sector  Host & Highlight: Presented by Women of Renewable Industries & Sustainable Energy (WRISE); evening includes networking, recognition of community leaders, and celebration of industry milestones  The link to register is below. https://wrise20thanniversarygala.rsvpify.com/?mc_cid=2c22b50623&mc_eid=0dfa02be45&securityToken=qZn8wqQI1mC1uMRPyb08kNwbscQ23wtX

This week's guest is Professor Michael Hicks, George & Frances Ball Distinguished Professor of Economics at Ball State University.  Mike brings an economist's perspective on the recent introduction of tariffs as well their sudden modification or removal in many cases.  Being located in Indiana, Mike is keen on the impact that different policies have on manufacturing and agricultural firms and communities.  In our conversation we discuss the idea and objectives of tariffs in general as well as the specific impacts that the most recent tariffs have caused.  Mike notes that the effects will not be evenly distributed and that, in fact, Red States which have more manufacturing will be negatively impacted more than the Blue State areas which feature more knowledge workers in the services.  

Has the City of New York gone nuts? What does the Democratic primary for mayor mean for the rest of the party and the country? Then we take a deep dive into the unethical practice of short selling stocks with John Welborn, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Dartmouth College and David Lauer of Urvin Finance.Welborn's paper can be read here.

Despite the war the Israeli economy appears to be strong, with the shekel up against the dollar and the euro and the TASE performing strongly. KAN's Mark Weiss spoke with Prof Avi Weiss from the Economics department of Bar Ilan university and president of the Taub Center. (Photo: Shutterstock)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

LIVE from the Montreal's Climate Solutions Prize Festival 2025 Na'im Merchant, Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada and the host of The Carbon Curve podcast, and Grégoire Baillargeon, President of BMO Quebec and Vice Chair of BMO Capital Markets join Ed Whittingham for a panel discussion exploring how Canada can become a global leader in carbon removal. With two podcast hosts and one Bank of Montreal president, Ed, Na'im and Greg pass the host's mic like a baton as they unpack the developer, buyer and policy dimensions of today's CDR market in Canada and abroad.About Our Guests:Na'im Merchant is the Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada. He is passionate about the potential for carbon removal to meet climate goals while driving economic and social change. He previously founded Carbon Curve, a consulting practice focused on equitably scaling up carbon removal. Na'im is an advisor to Terraset and the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative, and was previously an Elemental Impact Policy Fellow. He brings 10+ years of leadership experience in non-profits that expanded access to health innovations around the world.Grégoire Baillargeon is President of BMO, Quebec and Vice Chair, BMO Capital Markets, in November 2022. Passionate about transition and fighting climate change, Mr. Baillargeon has also been acting as Vice Chair of the BMO Climate Institute since September 2024. He recently joined the advisory board of Volt-age: Electrifying Society, a research program at Concordia University, and also serves on Carbon Removal Canada's advisory board. Under his leadership, BMO became the first bank to join the Montréal Climate Partnership, as well as the launch of conVERTgence, two movements aimed at accelerating decarbonization and integrating sustainable business practices in the city.Produced by Amit Tandon & Bespoke PodcastsSend us a text (if you'd like a response, please include your email)___Energy vs Climate Podcast: How climate change is changing our energy systemswww.energyvsclimate.com Contact us at info@energyvsclimate.com Bluesky | YouTube | LinkedIn | X/Twitter

Many dentists unknowingly fall into the trap of passive financial oversight, often relying on external teams who might be more reactive than proactive. This leads us to a critical question: Is your external team a bunch of cheerleaders, or are they truly coaches? Tune in to learn why taking an active role, asking tough questions, and demanding a higher standard from your advisors isn't just smart—it's essential for achieving your financial goals and securing an earlier retirement. Discover the power of a "coaching" approach from your financial team and how it can transform your practice's profitability.Interested in more info on how to: Earn More, Save More, and Retire EarlyUpcoming Tour Dates: Go to our EVENTS page for infoFacebook: Four Quadrants AdvisoryInstagram: @fourquadrantsadvisoryLinkedIn: Four Quadrants Advisory

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.

NATO leaders agree to ramp up defence spending to 5% of GDP, with Europe breathing a sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump renews his commitment to the military alliance. Over in Brussels, attention now turns to the European Council summit - with the bloc's leaders set to discuss how to align defence efforts around ongoing support for Ukraine and a volatile situation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Shell denies renewed reports it is in early stage talks to buy rival BP - a deal that could create an energy giant worth some £200 billion. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome back to HappyPorch Radio: the circular economy technology podcast!In this episode our hosts Barry O'Kane and Jo Weston are joined by Yann Toutant, CEO and Co-founder of Black Winch who are the world's exclusive authority in Product-As-A-Service (PaaS) solutions. At the beginning of the conversation Yann explains Black Winch's work and how they engage, inspire and empower intrapreneurs to achieve their PaaS ambitions by building and scaling their in-house recurring revenue models. Drawing on his experience guiding manufacturers through the transition to outcome-based services, Yann offers a deep dive into both the opportunities and the operational realities of implementing PaaS and discusses the importance of a long-term thinking strategy to make PaaS successful in any business.Yann also highlights key differences between B2B and B2C adoption of as-a-service models and talks about how technology plays a critical role in enabling these models. He outlines the importance of asset tracking, consumption data, billing complexity management, and reverse logistics—all underpinned by flexible tech stacks that evolve as the business scales. Looking ahead, Yann envisions that manufacturers will want to retain ownership of raw materials and explains how urban mining and material recovery will become strategic advantages.Tune in to learn about how new generations of data-driven leaders will continue to accelerate the shift towards PaaS and much more!This podcast is brought to you by HappyPorch. We specialise in technology and software development for Circular Economy minded purpose-driven businesses. Our podcast focuses mostly on: Circular Economy, Digital Enablers, Technology, Software, Circular Solutions, Fashion & Textiles, Circular Strategies, Digital, Reuse, Circular Design, Circularity, Systems Thinking, Economics, Data, Platforms, Degrowth, Policy & Regulation, Collaboration, Materials, Supply Chain, Biological Cycles, Materials, Food Waste, Biomimicry, Construction, Modular Design, Culture & Language, Zero Waste, Digital Passports, Life Cycle Assessment, Recycling, Reverse Logistics, Materials, Sharing Economy, Manufacturing, Efficiency, Environmental Impact and much more!

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss the wild 24 hours regarding updates on the conflict with Iran, how this move is affecting Donald Trump's base on different sides, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Spike Detox your body! Order Ultimate Spike Detox from The Wellness Company today! Go to http://www.twc.health/PROBLEM and use code PROBLEM for 10% Off + free shipping on every order.Better Help - https://Betterhelp.com/problem for 10% off your first monthMASA Chips - https://www.masachips.com/DAVE Monetary Metals - https://www.monetary-metals.com/potp/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!ROB LIVE DATES HERE:PORCH Tour: www.porchtour.comVegas: https://www.wiseguyscomedy.com/nevada/las-vegas/arts-district/e/robbie-bernsteinHouston Texas: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/robbie-the-fire-and-friends-tickets-1335225899609Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Austan Goolsbee is one of Tyler Cowen's favorite economists—not because they always agree, but because Goolsbee embodies what it means to think like an economist. Whether he's analyzing productivity slowdowns in the construction sector, exploring the impact of taxes on digital commerce, or poking holes in overconfident macro narratives, Goolsbee is consistently sharp, skeptical, and curious. A longtime professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, Goolsbee now brings that intellectual discipline—and a healthy dose of humor—to his role as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Tyler and Austan explore what theoretical frameworks Goolsbee uses for understanding inflation, why he's skeptical of monetary policy rules, whether post-pandemic inflation was mostly from the demand or supply side, the proliferation of stablecoins and shadow banking, housing prices and construction productivity, how microeconomic principles apply to managing a regional Fed bank, whether the structure of the Federal Reserve system should change, AI's role in banking supervision and economic forecasting, stablecoins and CBDCs, AI's productivity potential over the coming decades, his secret to beating Ted Cruz in college debates, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded March 3rd, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by donating today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Austan on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.

Our Australia Materials Analyst Rahul Anand discusses why critical minerals may be the Achilles' heel of humanoids as demand significantly outpaces supply amid geopolitical uncertainties.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Rahul Anand: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Rahul Anand, Head of Morgan Stanley's Australia Materials Research team.Today, I'll dig deeper into one of the vital necessities for the development of robotics – critical minerals – and why they're so vital to be front of mind for the Western world today. It's Wednesday, June 25th at 8am in Sydney, Australia. Humanoid robots will soon become an integral part of our daily lives. A few weeks ago, you heard my colleagues Adam Jonas and Sheng Zhong discuss how humanoids are going to transform the economy and markets. Morgan Stanley Research expects this market to reach more than a billion units by 2050 and generate almost [$] 5 trillion in annual revenue. When we think about that market, and we think about what it could do for critical minerals demand, that could skyrocket. And the key areas of critical minerals demand would basically be focused on rare earths, lithium and graphite. Each one of these complex machines is going to require about a kilo of rare earths, 2 kgs of lithium, 6.5 kgs kilos of copper, 1.5 kgs of nickel, 3 kgs of graphite, and about 200 grams of cobalt. Importantly, this market from a cumulative standpoint by the year 2050, could be to the tune of about $800 billion U.S., which is staggering.And beyond that market size of $800 billion U.S., I think it's important to drill a bit deeper – because if we now consider how these markets are dominated currently, comes the China angle. And China currently dominates 88 percent of rare earth supply, 93 percent of graphite supply and 75 percent of refined lithium supply. China recently placed controls on seven heavy rare earths and permanent magnet exports in response to tariff announcements that were made by the U.S., and a comprehensive deal there is still awaited. It's very important that we have to think about diversification today, not just because these critical minerals are so heavily dominated by China. But more importantly, if we think about how the supply chain comes about, it's now taking circa 18 years to get a new mine online, and that's the statistic for the past five years of mines that came online. That number is up nearly 50 percent from last decade, and that's been driven basically by very long approval processes now in the Western world, alongside very long exploration times that are required to get some of these mines up and running. On top of that, when we think about the supply demand balance, by 2040 we're expecting that the NdPr, or the rare earth, market would be in a 26 percent deficit. Lithium could be in a deficit close to 80 percent. So, it's not just about supply security. It's also about how long it will take to bring these mines on. And on top of that, how big the amount of supply that's required is really going to be. I know when you think about 2040, it sounds very long dated, but it's important to understand that we have to act now. And in this humanoid piece of research that we have done as the global materials team, which was led by the Australian materials team, we basically have provided 34 global stocks to play this thematic in the rare earths, lithium and rare earth magnet space. It's also very important to remember and keep front of mind that as part of the London negotiations that happened between U.S. and China, no agreement was reached on critical military use rare earth magnets and exports. Now that's an important point because that's going to play as a key point of leverage in any future trade deal that comes about between the two countries. This remains an evolving situation, and this is something that we are going to continue monitoring and will bring you the latest on as time progresses.Look, thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

We examine how robo-advisors have evolved over the past decade to determine if their services justify the fees they charge.Topics covered include:How large are the top 5 robo-advisorsRobo-advisor feesRobo-advisor holdingsWhy robo-advisors are turning toward direct indexing for tax loss harvestingHow much excess return does tax loss harvesting generateWho can benefit from using robo-advisorsSponsorsAsset CampLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesThe Tax Benefits of Direct Indexing, and How They Are Affected by the Biden Tax Plan by Nathan Sosner et al.—SSRNAn Empirical Evaluation of Tax-Loss Harvesting Alpha by Shomesh Chaudhuri et al.—SSRNRelated Episodes398: When Should You Hire An Investment Advisor? Two Case Studies92: What Robo-Advisors RecommendSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Does Mamdani's victory also send a message to Democrats?What happened with the Iran strikes? Do we know the truth? A Police State: Mike German, an ex-FBI agent, said immigration agents hiding their identities "highlights the illegitimacy of actions." Jeff Sharlet - On the Christian education of Vance Boelter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

When cruelty is moved out of sight, it's easier to pretend it doesn't exist — until history writes it down in blood…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Greeting's from Saint Thomas Island! Jason's on the Real Estate Guys' Investor Summit at Sea cruise and reminds his listeners to sign up for the FREE MASTERCLASS every second Wednesday of the month! https://jasonhartman.com/wednesday Jason and Edward Dowd discussed the book "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths" and its focus on the increase in all-cause mortality during the pandemic, as well as the group life insurance policies provided to employees at fortune 500 companies and mid-sized companies. They also discussed the significant increase in excess mortality rates among the insured population, particularly in the age group of 5 to 44, and the potential link between vaccine mandates and the forced vaccination of employed individuals. The conversation also touched on the economic impact of the influx of immigrants, the potential for a recession in the US, and the deflationary effects of tariffs. Follow Edward on X.com https://x.com/DowdEdward https://phinancetechnologies.com/ #EdwardDowd #CauseUnknown #EpidemicOfSuddenDeaths #AllCauseMortality #ExcessMortality #VaccineInjuries #MRNAShot #VaccineAdverseEvents #DisabilityData #GroupLifeInsurance #MillennialMortality #SuddenDeaths #EconomicOutlook #RecessionForecast #IllegalImmigrationImpact #GovernmentSpending #DeficitSpending #Tariffs #DeflationaryTariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Deregulation #TrumpEconomy #BidenEconomy #RFKJr #VaccineImmunity #PublicHealth #MacroEconomics Key Takeaways: 1:30 Carl Sagan predicts the future 2:46 https://jasonhartman.com/wednesday Edward Dowd interview 4:27 Meet Edward and the "Epidemic of of Sudden Deaths" 13:29: Sponsor: https://www.monetary-metals.com/Hartman 15:27 Lag time 17:34 Infertility and Miscarriages 19:49 Illegal immigration and the Economics from a demographic POV 25:14 Trump and big bumps on the road 28:54 Tariffs- inflationary or deflationary 31:32 The FED and rate cuts 33:30 Vaccine deaths and immunities     Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, to discuss the economic and monetary landscape under President Trump's second term, the implications of tariffs, and the outlook for gold and other commodities. Adrian begins by addressing the potential impact of Trump's trade policies, particularly tariffs, on inflation and the global financial system. He argues that while tariffs are often seen as inflationary, they can be deflationary by reducing demand for certain goods. However, he warns that a weakening U.S. dollar and a potential loss of its reserve currency status could lead to higher inflation domestically, as dollars previously held abroad return to the U.S. Adrian emphasizes that while the U.S. dollar's dominance is not immediately threatened, Trump's policies could accelerate its decline, with significant consequences for the economy. The conversation then shifts to the U.S. debt market, where Adrian highlights the challenges of financing the growing deficit. He notes that major buyers of U.S. Treasuries, such as China and Japan, are reducing their holdings, and domestic buyers like regional banks and the Federal Reserve are also pulling back. This could lead to higher interest rates and increased pressure on the U.S. economy. Adrian predicts that the Federal Reserve may eventually return to quantitative easing (QE) to support the bond market, which would be bullish for gold. He also discusses the disconnect between gold prices and gold mining stocks, attributing it to the lack of participation from North American investors. However, he believes this is changing as economic conditions shift, with gold stocks offering significant value and expanding margins. Adrian also touches on other commodities, particularly copper and uranium, which he sees as critical for the global energy transition. He concludes by advising investors to focus on value rather than price, emphasizing that the gold market is still in its early stages of a bull run. Timestamps:0:00:00 - Introduction00:01:22 - Trump & U.S. Trade Policy00:06:30 - Multi Res. Currency World00:09:13 - A Bretton Woods Event?00:13:42 - Cad. Dairy & Tariffs00:15:57 - U.S. Economic Concerns?00:22:12 - U.S. Debt Global Outlook00:34:26 - Fed Rates & Q.E.00:40:20 - Gold & Market Participants00:45:28 - Gold Sentiment00:48:28 - Gold & Geopolitical Risk00:51:58 - Monetary Response & Gold00:54:39 - Gold Price & Mining Equities01:00:29 - GSR, Silver, & Cycles01:05:02 - Royalty Companies & Value01:07:30 - Capital & Explorers01:10:42 - Other Sectors/Countries01:16:12 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/ Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.

International equity managers are in vogue again, so we visited with Portfolio Manager David Nadel about the case for international small- and mid-cap (SMID) stocks. In other news, we ponder how many burgers the One Big Beautiful Bill could buy. And we dive into Brian Levitt's “pessimism aversion” and why he prefers to stay optimistic about the big trends that promise to impact the future. (Invesco Distributors, Inc.)

MacKenzie Price, founder of Alpha School & 2 Hour Learning, discusses her revolutionary educational model that uses AI to enable students to master traditional academics in just 2 hours per day while achieving 2.3x faster learning rates than statistical models predict. The conversation explores how Alpha School combines adaptive learning apps with personalized curriculum systems rather than giving students direct chatbot access, and how this frees up afternoons for field trips, independent projects, and interest exploration. They discuss the transformation of teachers into "Guides" who focus entirely on motivation, mentorship, and emotional support rather than content delivery, creating transformative relationships with every student as the rule rather than the exception. The episode reveals how this AI-powered approach maintains rigorous academic standards while potentially revolutionizing education without disrupting the teaching profession. Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive The AGNTCY (Cisco): The AGNTCY is an open-source collective dedicated to building the Internet of Agents, enabling AI agents to communicate and collaborate seamlessly across frameworks. Join a community of engineers focused on high-quality multi-agent software and support the initiative at https://agntcy.org/?utmcampaign=fy25q4agntcyamerpaid-mediaagntcy-cognitiverevolutionpodcast&utmchannel=podcast&utmsource=podcast NetSuite by Oracle: NetSuite by Oracle is the AI-powered business management suite trusted by over 41,000 businesses, offering a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR. Gain total visibility and control to make quick decisions and automate everyday tasks—download the free ebook, Navigating Global Trade: Three Insights for Leaders, at https://netsuite.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) About the Episode (04:01) Introduction and Welcome (04:26) AI Revolution in Education (06:45) Two Sigma Effect Explained (10:49) Understanding Two Sigma Results (Part 1) (16:28) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure | The AGNTCY (Cisco) (18:28) Understanding Two Sigma Results (Part 2) (18:28) AI Scalability and Efficiency (22:39) AI Tutor Experience Design (30:48) Technology Evolution at Alpha (38:29) Early AI Implementation (Part 1) (38:36) Sponsor: NetSuite by Oracle (39:59) Early AI Implementation (Part 2) (45:43) Fifth Grade Math Investigation (49:51) Future of Personalized Learning (54:48) Multimodal Learning Experiences (58:52) Role of Guides (01:05:25) Hiring and Teacher Transformation (01:10:27) Economics and Scalability (01:18:03) DIY Education Advice (01:22:10) Outro

Today's episode focuses on the mid-term elections in the Philippines which were held in May of this year, including all local elected positions, all seats in the House of Representatives, and twelve of the twenty-four seats in the Senate. The elections have been viewed as a reflection on the administration of President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong' Marcos, Jr. and as especially consequential for the future of Vice-President Sara Duterte. She was impeached by the House of Representatives in February 2025, setting the stage for a trial by the Senate, but with her continuing popularity making her a serious contender for the presidency in 2028. To interpret the mid-term elections, Dialogues on Southeast Asia has turned to Dr. Sharmila Parmanand, an Assistant Professor in Gender, Development and Globalisation in the Department of Gender Studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and also an Associate and member of the Management Committee of the LSE's Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre. Dr. Parmanand's research focuses on the intersection of gender and politics in the Philippines, ranging from sex work and migration policies to the connections between gender, nationalism, and democracy. She is currently working on her first book, titled Saving Our Sisters: The Politics of Anti-Trafficking and Sex Work in the Philippines, but she is also busy conducting research, writing, and publishing on other fronts, including a new collaborative project on queer activism across Southeast Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

On this episode, Nathan Goodman chats with economist Ben Powell about common myths surrounding mass immigration, including fears of job loss, wage suppression, and fiscal burdens. Drawing from his book, Wretched Refuse?: The Political Economy of Immigration and Institutions, Powell presents cross-country evidence showing that immigration does not undermine culture, institutions, or productivity. Instead, it often correlates with improvements in economic freedom and institutional quality. He also highlights the importance of focusing on targeted policy solutions rather than broad restrictions.Dr. Benjamin Powell is the Executive Director of the Free Market Institute at Texas Tech University, a Professor of Economics in the Rawls College of Business at Texas Tech University, and a Senior Fellow with the Independent Institute. He is the Secretary-Treasurer of both the Southern Economic Association and the Association of Private Enterprise Education and the Treasurer of the Mont Pelerin Society.If you like the show, please subscribe, leave a 5-star review, and tell others about the show! We're available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and wherever you get your podcasts.Virtual Sentiments, a podcast series from the Hayek Program, is streaming. Subscribe today and listen to season three, releasing now!Follow the Hayek Program on Twitter: @HayekProgramLearn more about Academic & Student ProgramsFollow the Mercatus Center on Twitter: @mercatusCC Music: Twisterium

Today's episode focuses on the mid-term elections in the Philippines which were held in May of this year, including all local elected positions, all seats in the House of Representatives, and twelve of the twenty-four seats in the Senate. The elections have been viewed as a reflection on the administration of President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong' Marcos, Jr. and as especially consequential for the future of Vice-President Sara Duterte. She was impeached by the House of Representatives in February 2025, setting the stage for a trial by the Senate, but with her continuing popularity making her a serious contender for the presidency in 2028. To interpret the mid-term elections, Dialogues on Southeast Asia has turned to Dr. Sharmila Parmanand, an Assistant Professor in Gender, Development and Globalisation in the Department of Gender Studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and also an Associate and member of the Management Committee of the LSE's Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre. Dr. Parmanand's research focuses on the intersection of gender and politics in the Philippines, ranging from sex work and migration policies to the connections between gender, nationalism, and democracy. She is currently working on her first book, titled Saving Our Sisters: The Politics of Anti-Trafficking and Sex Work in the Philippines, but she is also busy conducting research, writing, and publishing on other fronts, including a new collaborative project on queer activism across Southeast Asia. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/southeast-asian-studies

Today's episode focuses on the mid-term elections in the Philippines which were held in May of this year, including all local elected positions, all seats in the House of Representatives, and twelve of the twenty-four seats in the Senate. The elections have been viewed as a reflection on the administration of President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong' Marcos, Jr. and as especially consequential for the future of Vice-President Sara Duterte. She was impeached by the House of Representatives in February 2025, setting the stage for a trial by the Senate, but with her continuing popularity making her a serious contender for the presidency in 2028. To interpret the mid-term elections, Dialogues on Southeast Asia has turned to Dr. Sharmila Parmanand, an Assistant Professor in Gender, Development and Globalisation in the Department of Gender Studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and also an Associate and member of the Management Committee of the LSE's Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre. Dr. Parmanand's research focuses on the intersection of gender and politics in the Philippines, ranging from sex work and migration policies to the connections between gender, nationalism, and democracy. She is currently working on her first book, titled Saving Our Sisters: The Politics of Anti-Trafficking and Sex Work in the Philippines, but she is also busy conducting research, writing, and publishing on other fronts, including a new collaborative project on queer activism across Southeast Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

Do you stick to the rules or do you roll through stop signs? Whether you're “tight” or “loose” — how closely you adhere to social norms — has major implications for your life at home and at work. “To be effective, we want to be ambidextrous,” says Michele Gelfand, the John H. Scully Professor in Cross-Cultural Management and Professor of Organizational Behavior at Stanford Graduate School of Business. “Even if we might lean tight or loose, we want to be able to create a context where we can have both tight and loose elements.”Sophisticated strategies will fail if they don't account for deeply embedded norms, and Gelfand breaks down why the adage that “culture eats strategy for breakfast” is more than just a management cliché. “From the moment we wake up to the moment we go to sleep, [culture is] affecting everything from our politics to our parenting,” Gelfand says. “But we take it for granted — we don't even think about it. So it's kind of invisible. And that's a pretty profound puzzle.” What's the biggest cultural adjustment you've made? Share your story at ifthenpod@stanford.edu.This episode was recorded on January 28, 2025.Related Content:Faculty profilePsst — Wanna Know Why Gossip Has Evolved in Every Human Society?Class Takeaways — The Art of NegotiationWhy the Pandemic Slammed “Loose” Countries Like the U.S.If/Then is a podcast from Stanford Graduate School of Business that examines research findings that can help us navigate the complex issues we face in business, leadership, and society. Each episode features an interview with a Stanford GSB faculty member.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Critical technologies including artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing are gaining increasing attention due to their strategic importance and indispensable role in national security. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Yuyun Zhan invites Alicia García-Herrero and Claudio Feijóo to look into how the world's three leading global economies, China, the US and the EU, are advancing in these cutting-edge sectors. Which economies are leading in specific subfields? How quickly are these technologies being translated into real-world applications? Relevant publications: García-Herrero, A., M. Krystyanczuk and R. Schindowski (2025) ‘Radical novelties in critical technologies and spillovers: how do China, the US and the EU fare?', Working Paper 07/2025, Bruegel García-Herrero, A., M. Krystyanczuk and R. Schindowski (2025) ‘Which companies are ahead in frontier innovation on critical technologies? Comparing China, the European Union and the United States', Working Paper 08/2025, Bruegel This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss the progressing conflict in Iran including live updates regarding missiles being sent to American bases, statements made by Donald Trump and JD Vance on the situation, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Blackout Coffee - https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/problemCrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpHexclad - Find your forever cookware @hexclad and get10% off at hexclad.com/PROBLEM! #hexcladpartnerPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!ROB LIVE DATES HERE:PORCH Tour: www.porchtour.comVegas: https://www.wiseguyscomedy.com/nevada/las-vegas/arts-district/e/robbie-bernsteinHouston Texas: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/robbie-the-fire-and-friends-tickets-1335225899609Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Equity Strategist Jonathan Garner explains why Indian equities are our most preferred market in Asia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss why we remain positive on India's long-term equity story.It's Tuesday, the 24th of June at 9am in Singapore.We've had a long-standing bullish outlook on the India economy and its stock market. In the last five years MSCI India has delivered a total return in U.S. dollars of 145 percent versus 94 percent for global equities and just 39 percent for emerging markets. Indian equities are our most preferred market within Asia for three key reasons. First, India's superior economic and earnings growth. Second, lower exposure to trade tariffs. And third, a strong domestic investor base. And all of this adds up to structural outperformance not just in Asia but indeed globally, and with significantly lower volatility than peer group markets. So let's dive deeper. To start with – the macroeconomic backdrop. We expect India to account for 20 percent of overall incremental global GDP growth in the coming decade. Manufacturing competitiveness is improving thanks to bolstered infrastructure in power, ports, roads, freight transport systems as well as investments in social infrastructure such as water, sewage and hospitals. Additionally, India's growing middle class offers market opportunities to companies across many product categories. There's robust domestic consumption, a strong investment cycle led by public and private capital expenditure and continuing structural reforms, including in the legal sphere. GDP growth in the first quarter was more than 7 percent and our team expects over 6 percent in the medium term, which would be by far the highest of the major economies. Furthermore, we continue to expect robust corporate earnings growth. Since the end of COVID, MSCI India has delivered around 12 percent per annum [U.S.] dollar earnings per share growth versus low single digits for Emerging Markets overall. And we forecast 14 percent and 16 percent over the next two fiscal years. Growth drivers in the short term include an emerging private CapEx cycle, re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural rise in discretionary consumption – signaling increased business and consumer confidence, after last year's elections. Another key reason that we're positive on India currently is its lower-than-average vulnerability to ongoing trade and tariff disputes between the U.S. and its trade partners. Exports of goods to the U.S. amount to only 2 percent of India's GDP versus, for example, 10 percent in Thailand or 14 percent in Taiwan. And India's total goods exports are only around 12 percent of GDP. Moreover, for the time being, India's very large services sector's exports are not exposed to tariff actions, and are actually early beneficiaries of AI adoption. Finally, India's strong individual stock ownership means that there's persistent retail buying, which underpins the equity market. Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) flows driven by a young urbanizing population are making new highs, and in May amounted to over U.S.$3 billion. They provide consistent capital inflows. That means that this domestic bid on stocks is unlikely to fade anytime soon. This provides a strong foundation for the market and supports valuations which are slightly above emerging market averages. It also means that its market beta to global equities are low and falling, approximately 0.4 versus 1.1 ten years ago. And price volatility is well below other emerging markets. All told, making India an attractive play in volatile times. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The morbidly rich hide behind patriotism, drown us in lies, and strip the nation bare while we're told to blame our neighbors...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

News. Trump & ceasefire meltdown, A socialist mayor for NYC?, Trump goes full homophobic, Will Murkowski switch parties? And "Alligator Alcatraz" is about to happen. Crazy Alert! CNN host answers questions on Trump violating international law, "Who is going to stop us?" Us? Is he a CNN host or a Trump spokesperson? Non-far-right-wing Justices blast SCOTUS decision allowing third country deportation. But wait...there's more. SCOTUS set to weigh in on birthright citizenship, LBGTQ books, porn and more. What could possibly go wrong?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

NATO leaders are gathering in the Netherlands for their annual summit at the same time a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war appears to be holding. Can diplomacy succeed if the ceasefire survives? Among the leaders urging that path is Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney. Christiane sat down with the Prime Minister in the Netherlands today.  Also on today's show: EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas; Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Politics, U.C. Berkeley  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices