Podcasts about Economics

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

From the halls of Mar-a-Lago to the ruins of Ukrainian hospitals, the toxic bond between Trump, Putin, and Epstein may have reshaped the world and cost the lives of countless children…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast. Callers react to Epstein's crimes with pathos and understanding of victims of trauma. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this week's episode, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney sit down with Mihailo Bozic, a dynamic 25-year-old entrepreneur whose journey from Australia to New York City embodies the classic immigrant founder story. With Serbian roots and a background in Finance and Economics from the University of Western Australia, Mihailo has already launched two impactful startups tackling real-world problems. From his first venture Envited, a social media app revolutionizing student event planning, to his current company Migrate Mate, a job board helping immigrants find visa-sponsored roles in the U.S., Mihailo shares how he bootstrapped his way to $500K ARR in just three months and built a community of over 16,000 job seekers. We dive into: The challenges of startup funding and scaling How viral LinkedIn marketing helped Migrate Mate explode Building a 15M+ follower base from a meme page Lessons from pitching to VCs as an immigrant founder Given the uncertainty surrounding today's labor market, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, evolving U.S. immigration policies, and the shifting landscape of American entrepreneurship, this episode offers timely and thought-provoking insights into the state of the modern U.S. economy. Whether you're an investor, an aspiring entrepreneur, an immigrant chasing opportunity, or simply someone who loves a good hustle story—this conversation is packed with inspiration, practical wisdom, and real-world perspective.

Adam and Cameron discuss the economics of podcasts, a multi-billion dollar industry. And on that topic—twice a year Ones and Tooze conducts a listener support campaign. Please consider supporting the show by following the link below. https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=ATHRTKECVXVE8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Written by Hannah KhalilIn 2040, a Middle Eastern nation is struggling to survive rising temperatures and rolling power cuts. Architect Noura Halim has devoted her life to designing a new kind of city, one that could protect people from the worsening climate and keep her country alive. But as construction begins, the project drains the nation's fragile resources, workers are pushed to breaking point, and her teenage daughter Amal begins to question everything her mother believes in.As tensions rise at home and across the country, Noura must confront the cost of her own ambition and the possibility that her dream of salvation could destroy the very place she's trying to save.Tipping Point was developed through OKRE Experimental Stories supported by Wellcome in consultation with Dr Robert Hughes of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Dr Candice Howarth of the London School of Economics.Cast:Noura . . . . . Nadia Albina Amal . . . . . Eleanor Nawal Steve . . . . . Clive Hayward Mr Felix . . . . . Angus Wright Jamila . . . . . Tanvi Virmani TV Presenter . . . . . Jasmine Hyde Noura's Assistant . . . . . Sasha McCabeProduction co-ordinators: Sara Benaim and Emma Donald Sound design: Sharon Hughes Director: Sasha Yevtushenko

Text us your questions!Is the drive to be better than others making us worse? We talk with theologian Miroslav Volf about his book The Cost of Ambition and explore why comparison-based striving saturates our schools, churches, workplaces, and politics. Volf separates healthy aspiration from superiority-seeking and makes a compelling case for excellence without domination, rooted in agape, i.e., unconditional love that affirms people beyond performance.We dig into the Christ hymn of Philippians 2 and why self-emptying is not weakness but a different kind of strength. Volf shows how resurrection and ascension empower humility rather than feed triumphalism and why honoring everyone is both a spiritual discipline and a democratic necessity. From the academy's “one-up” culture to the marketplace's imitation traps, he argues that obsessing over competitors blinds us to our unique gifts and corrodes joy. Even stalwart capitalists like Warren Buffett warn against competitor-fixation. Volf adds a deeper moral and theological critique as well, drawing on Paul's piercing question: What do you have that you did not receive?We also test his claims against Nietzsche's will to power, happiness research on social comparison, and the rise of Christian nationalism. Is Christ a moral stranger to our priorities? Volf challenges both sides of the aisle to recover mere humanity—Kierkegaard's vision of belovedness before achievement—and to practice agape toward others and ourselves. The result is a bracing, hopeful vision: strive for truth, craft, and contribution, not for status; pursue excellence as stewardship, not self-exaltation.If you're weary of the status treadmill yet still hungry to do meaningful work, this conversation will give you categories, language, and practices to recalibrate your aims. Listen, reflect, and share with someone who needs a healthier way to win. If the episode resonates, subscribe, leave a review, and let us know your thoughts.=====Want to support us?The best way is to subscribe to our Patreon. Annual memberships are available for a 10% discount.If you'd rather make a one-time donation, you can contribute through our PayPal. Other important info: Rate & review us on Apple & Spotify Follow us on social media at @PPWBPodcast Watch & comment on YouTube Email us at pastorandphilosopher@gmail.com Cheers!

Congress may have ended the shutdown (finally), but it's still entangled in a power struggle with the Executive Branch. Kai Ryssdal has thoughts. On the show today, Kai and Kimberly get into what comes next in the shutdown's wake, how the Trump administration's tariff arguments went over at the Supreme Court and what the sliding balance of power in the federal government has to do with the health of the U.S. economy.Here's everything we talked about today:"Court appears dubious of Trump's tariffs" from SCOTUSblog"Trump floats $2,000 tariff rebate checks: Here's what you need to know" from CNBC"Trump claims tariff loss would force $3 trillion ‘unwind'" from Axios"If SCOTUS strikes down President Trump's current tariffs, he has plenty of other options" from Marketplace"How Congress Gave Up Its Own Power" from Time"Senate sinks measure to block military action against Venezuela" from PoliticoJoin us tomorrow for “Economics on Tap.” The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

SHOW 11-12-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1930 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT CHINA'S LEADERSHIP. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Allied AI Competition and Submarine Requests. Scott Harold examines the crucial role of allies Japan and South Korea in the AI competition against China. Japan is developing locally tailored AI models built on US technology for use in Southeast Asia. South Korea aims to become the third-largest AI power, offering reliable models to counter China's untrustworthy technology. Harold also discusses South Korea's surprising request for nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines to track Chinese and North Korean vessels, signaling a greater public willingness to contribute to China deterrence. 915-930 Rare Earths Monopoly and US Strategy. General Blaine Holt discusses China's challenge to the US and its allies regarding rare earths, noting that China previously threatened to cut off supply. The US is securing deals with partners like Australia and is on track to replace China entirely, despite initial processing reliance on Chinese predatory practices. Holt suggests a two-year recovery is conservative, as technology for domestic processing exists. He also notes China's leadership is in turmoil, trying to buy time through trade deals. 930-945 Russian Economic Stagnation and War Finance. Michael Bernstam confirms that the Russian economy is stagnating, expecting no growth for years due to exhausted resources and reliance on military production. Oil and gas revenues are down significantly due to Western sanctions and high discounts, widening the budget deficit. Russia is increasing taxes, including the VAT, which drives inflation in staples. This economic pain damages the popularity of the war by hurting the low-income population—the primary source of military recruitment. 945-1000 Buckley, Fusionism, and Conservative Integrity. Peter Berkowitz explores William F. Buckley's consolidation of the conservative movement through "fusionism"—blending limited government and social conservatism. Buckley purged the movement of anti-Semites based on core principles. Berkowitz uses this historical context to analyze the controversy surrounding Tucker Carlson giving a platform to Nick Fuentes, who openly celebrates Stalin and Hitler. This incident caused division after the Heritage Foundation's president, Kevin Roberts, defended Carlson, prompting Roberts to issue an apology. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election, 1015-1030 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election 1030-1045 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. 1045-1100 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Philippine Missile Deployment to Deter China. Captain Jim Fanell reports that the Philippines unveiled its first operational BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile battery in western Luzon to deter Chinese aggression. This supersonic missile system, part of the $7.2 billion Reorizon 3 modernization program, gives the Philippines "skin in the game" near disputed waters like Scarborough Shoal. The deployment signifies a strategy to turn the Philippines into a "porcupine," focusing defense on the West Philippine Sea. The systems are road-mobile, making them difficult to target. 1115-1130 AI, Cyber Attacks, and Nuclear Deterrence. Peter Huessy discusses the challenges to nuclear deterrence posed by AI and cyber intrusions. General Flynn highlighted that attacks on satellites, the backbone of deterrence, could prevent the US from confirming where a launch originated. Huessy emphasizes the need to improve deterrence, noting that the US likely requires presidential authorization for retaliation, unlike potential Russian "dead hand" systems. The biggest risk is misinformation delivered by cyber attacks, although the US maintains stringent protocols and would never launch based solely on a computer warning. 1130-1145 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. 1145-1200 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Corruption, Chinese Influence, and Protests in Serbia. Ivana Stradner discusses protests in Serbia demanding accountability one year after a canopy collapse killed 16 people, with investigations linking the accident to high-level corruption involving a Chinese company. Leader Vučić suppresses discontent by alleging the West is plotting a "color revolution." Although Vučić aligns his heart with Russia and China, he needs EU money for political survival, prompting him to offer weapons to the West and claim Serbia is on the EU path. 1215-1230 The Muslim Brotherhood and Its Global Network. Cliff May discusses the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the progenitor of Hamas, founded in 1928 after the Ottoman Caliphate's abolition. The MB's goal is to establish a new Islamic empire. Qatar is highly supportive, hosting Hamas leaders, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia have banned the MB. Turkish President Erdoğan is considered MB-adjacent and sympathetic, supporting Hamas and potentially viewing himself as a future Caliph, despite Turkey being a NATO member. 1230-1245 Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator. 1245-100 AM Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator.

Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas.

Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. 1940

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

11-13-25 - The End Of The Penny And The Possibility Of Elon Musk Becoming A Trillionaire Has Us Talking Finances And Economics - Brady's 4th Grade Friend Ate A Penny And It Messed Him UpSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Congress may have ended the shutdown (finally), but it's still entangled in a power struggle with the Executive Branch. Kai Ryssdal has thoughts. On the show today, Kai and Kimberly get into what comes next in the shutdown's wake, how the Trump administration's tariff arguments went over at the Supreme Court and what the sliding balance of power in the federal government has to do with the health of the U.S. economy.Here's everything we talked about today:"Court appears dubious of Trump's tariffs" from SCOTUSblog"Trump floats $2,000 tariff rebate checks: Here's what you need to know" from CNBC"Trump claims tariff loss would force $3 trillion ‘unwind'" from Axios"If SCOTUS strikes down President Trump's current tariffs, he has plenty of other options" from Marketplace"How Congress Gave Up Its Own Power" from Time"Senate sinks measure to block military action against Venezuela" from PoliticoJoin us tomorrow for “Economics on Tap.” The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast pondering the impact and importance of the newly revealed Epstein evidence. Jeff's dad Joe Smith joins the show for the popular segment "News With My Dad" and shares a public safety announcement.. Does the Epstein stuff really matter? Is it just salacious click-bait or is it truly significant? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This Epstein Affair has shown a pattern where men of wealth and power created a zone of impunity that protected them for decades while destroying vulnerable people like Virginia Guiffrey…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's been another bruising week for the British economy. New GDP figures reveal that growth has almost flatlined, inching up by just 0.1 per cent between July and August – a sign, many fear, that the UK is drifting into deeper malaise. With the budget less than a fortnight away, can the Chancellor square the circle of sluggish growth, tax pressures and a restless Labour party?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Paul Johnson about the mounting economic uncertainties, the Treasury's lack of a clear tax strategy, and the political doom loop the government now finds itself in. Are Labour's early missteps catching up with them – and will the coming budget steady the ship or spark a fresh crisis?Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Solar Dominates 2025 Energy Additions; Nuclear Sees Major Expansion Welcome to our weekly Renewable Energy Briefing! Stay informed on the latest industry trends.  Episode #38 Briefing Highlights: -U.S. government and Westinghouse in $80 billion deal for new nuclear power  -Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) in a massive deal to acquire utility giant AES  -New federal report shows solar made up almost three-quarters of all new power in 2025 (19GW) -Federal government cancels $7 billion for low-income solar; over 20 states are now suing Solar continues its dominance in 2025, accounting for 19 GW of the 26 GW of new U.S. energy capacity added this year. Meanwhile, the nuclear renaissance accelerates as the U.S. government and Westinghouse announce an $80B deal that reshapes the future of baseload power. Benoy and David break down the biggest transactions—including GIP's acquisition of AES—and the implications of federal policy changes, such as the Trump administration canceling $7B in solar grants aimed at low-income communities. Get the clean energy insights you need in five minutes. Join us for a comprehensive analysis that combines expert commentary with up-to-the-minute news, offering you a strategic overview of the renewable energy market. Don't miss out on the crucial details that can impact your investment decisions. Tune in weekly for your essential dose of Renewable Energy insights! Host Bio: Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy, solar developer and consulting firm, and a strategic advisor to multiple cleantech startups. Over his career, Benoy has developed over 100 MWs of solar projects across the U.S., helped launch the first residential solar tax equity funds at Tesla, and brokered $45 million in Renewable Energy Credits (“REC”) transactions.   Prior to founding Reneu Energy, Benoy was the Environmental Commodities Trader in Tesla's Project Finance Group, where he managed one of the largest environmental  commodities portfolios. He originated REC trades and co-developed a monetization and hedging strategy with senior leadership to enter the East Coast market.   As Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners, Benoy crafted project finance solutions for commercial-scale solar portfolios. His role at Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund with 125 MWs of U.S. renewable assets, involved evaluating investment opportunities and maximizing returns. He also played a key role in the sale of the firm's renewable portfolio.   Earlier in his career, Benoy worked in Energy Structured Finance at Deloitte & Touche and Financial Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, following an internship on the trading floor at D.E. Shaw & Co., a multi billion dollar hedge fund.   Benoy holds an MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from NYU Stern, where he was an Alumni Scholar. Connect with Benoy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benoythanjan/ Learn more: https://reneuenergy.com https://www.solarmaverickpodcast.com     Host Bio: David Magid David Magid is a seasoned renewable energy executive with deep expertise in solar development, financing, and operations. He has worked across the clean energy value chain, leading teams that deliver distributed generation and community solar projects. David is widely recognized for his strategic insights on interconnection, market economics, and policy trends shaping the U.S. solar industry. Connect with David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmagid/   If you have any questions or comments, you can email us at info@reneuenergy.com.  

Football consultant Jason Stephens joins SDH for the latest news involving the economics of soccer and where they meet...This week, illegal streaming numbers are surprising... So are the sheer numbers of alleged bettors on the field in Turkey... and Atleti has new majority owners to keep an eye on...

A discussion of the book Decolonizing Economics by Devika Dutt, Carolina Alves, Surbhi Kesar, and Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven with two of the authors, Dr. Dutt and Dr. Kesar. Their book outlines the biases within the field of economics regarding theory as well as the bias of economists in general. Too much of the economics discipline is filled with "eurocentrism."

A rare Georgia storyline: Democrats flipped both Public Service Commission seats—and they did it on kitchen-table economics, not party labels.Host Ron Roberts and strategist Andrew Heaton (manager for Dr. Alicia Johnson) detail how frustration over Georgia Power rate hikes built an unlikely coalition of Democrats, independents, and crossover Republicans, flipping even longtime red counties.With quick hits from news director Alexis Young on what PSC terms mean for your bill, and analysis from Melita Easters (Georgia Win List) on the surge of women contenders and a 2026 map full of open seats, the episode turns wins into a playbook: run candidates who fit their districts, follow the energy, and speak plainly about budgets, housing, and utilities.Ron spotlights field-first campaigns like Chelsea Bond's and the youth wave reshaping local races, then zooms out to national signals—from independents breaking blue to the debate over message discipline in the “107 days” of Kamala Harris's sprint. Bottom line: affordability wins, organization matters, and Georgia just wrote a blueprint for 2026.Tune in to catch the Ron Show weekdays from 4-6pm Eastern time on Georgia NOW! Grab the app or listen online at heargeorgianow.com.#AndrewHeaton #MelitaEasters #AliciaJohnson #PeterHubbard #GeorgiaPSC #KitchenTableIssues #ZoranMamdani #GeorgiaPolitics #HearGeorgiaNow #TheRonShow

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about the drop in approval rating of Donald Trump in his second term regarding his handling of the economy, and more.Preorder Lauren Smith's book here: https://a.co/d/67djjBpSupport Our Sponsors:CrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpMy Patriot Supply - https://www.mypatriotsupply.com/problemMonetary Metals - https://www.monetary-metals.com/potp/Brunt Workwear - http://bruntworkwear.com/ Use code PROBLEMPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov dive into Trump's new “affordability” push — from $2,000 tariff rebate checks to 50-year mortgages — and ask whether any of it actually makes economic sense. Then, California's Gavin Newsom takes on America's masculinity crisis, warning Democrats can't keep ignoring men and boys. Plus, Texas Democrat James Talarico gets caught following OnlyFans models, and Trump's influence hits a new low (or high?) — the “Mar-a-Lago face.” Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Can you really make money sports betting on low-risk, high-probability events?Topics covered include:The growing size and influence of the U.S. sports betting marketRecent sports betting scandalsHow sports betting odds workAn intriguing low-risk approach to sports bettingWhy the low-risk sports betting approach is still gambling with a negative expected returnBehavioral biases that encourage sports bettingRevisiting the difference between investing, speculating, and gamblingEpisode SponsorDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow Noteshttps://info.lowstressbets.com/How Do Betting Odds Work? by OC Staff—oddscheckerSenate Commerce Committee Wants Answers on NBA Gambling Scandal—Senate Commerce Committee"US sports betting crisis grows as MLB's Clase and Ortiz indicted over alleged rigged pitches" by Tom Lutz—The GuardianESPN Will Not Let Failure Push It Out Of The Gambling Business by Chris Thompson—Defector22% of All Americans, Half of Men 18-49, Have Active Online Sports Betting Account—Siena University Research InstituteA Review of Sports Wagering & Gambling Addiction Studies Executive Summary—National Council on Problem GamblingHow sports gambling took over prediction markets in the US by Sam Learner, Oliver Roeder and George Steer—The Financial Times See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump's white supremacist loyalists are rewriting history, erasing Black heroes, and purging diversity, and the politicians who stay silent are complicit in that treason…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann today is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast. Jeff's dad Joe Smith joins the show for the popular segment "News With My Dad" and shares an extraordinary announcement. For the book club Thom reads from "Original Wisdom: Stories of an Ancient Way of Knowing" by Robert Wolff.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Answering your questions on our Discord and discussing everything on your mind. Politics, theology, comedy, philosophy Send Superchats at any time here: https://streamlabs.com/jaydyer/tip Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnt7Iy8GlmdPwy_Tzyx93bA/join Order New Book Available here: https://jaysanalysis.com/product/esoteric-hollywood-3-sex-cults-apocalypse-in-films/ Get started with Bitcoin here: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/jaydyer/ The New Philosophy Course is here: https://marketplace.autonomyagora.com/philosophy101 Set up recurring Choq subscription with the discount code JAY44LIFE for 44% off now https://choq.com Subscribe to my site here: https://jaysanalysis.com/membership-account/membership-levels/ Follow me on R0kfin here: https://rokfin.com/jaydyer Music by Amid the Ruins 1453 https://www.youtube.com/@amidtheruinsOVERHAUL Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnt7Iy8GlmdPwy_Tzyx93bA/join #comedy #podcast #entertainmentBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/jay-sanalysis--1423846/support.

Follow me @samirkaji for my thoughts on the venture market, with a focus on the continued evolution of the VC landscape.Welcome back to another episode of Venture Unlocked, the podcast that takes you behind the scenes of the business of venture capital.Today, I sat down with Rob Go, Co-Founder and Partner at NextView, to discuss the shift in seed-stage investing and what seed funds need to consider to remain viable. The conversation was sparked by a series of Posts Rob wrote, the first of which was called a Crisis Moment in Seed. We spent a lot of time talking about what inspired the post and how seed managers should adapt to the shifted market. For anyone investing at seed, this is a must listen as Rob shared so many insightful views.Thanks for listening to another episode of Venture Unlocked. We hope you enjoyed our conversation with Rob. If you'd like to get Venture Unlocked content straight to your inbox, go to ventureunlocked.substack.com and sign up, or go to Apple Podcasts or Spotify and subscribe. Thanks again for listeningAbout Rob GoRob Go is the co-founder and partner of NextView Ventures, a thematic seed-stage venture capital firm focused on investing in founders solving meaningful problems for everyday people. Before launching NextView, Rob was a venture capitalist at Spark Capital, where he focused on the intersection of media, technology, and entertainment.Earlier in his career, Rob led the “Finding” business unit at eBay, where he helped design and launch over 20 products that transformed the platform's search and merchandising experience. He also worked in strategy consulting at The Parthenon Group, focusing on consumer and retail industries, and held product management roles at Fidelity Investments and BzzAgent.Rob holds a B.S. in Economics from Duke University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. Beyond venture, he's a founding member of Highrock Church in Brookline, MA, and a dedicated husband and father who values family and faith as deeply as entrepreneurship.NextView Ventures is an early-stage venture capital firm founded in 2010, with offices in New York, Boston, and San Francisco. They focus on seed-stage investments, typically ranging from around $250K to $4M, in companies building consumer, fintech, digital health, and B2B SaaS solutions that reshape what they call the everyday economy The firm has backed a number of notable companies, including ThredUp, Grove Collaborative, WHOOP, and TripleLift, all of which have achieved significant exits or growth milestones. Their hands-on, founder-first approach and thematic focus have helped them build a strong track record in seed investing.During the conversation, we discussed:* The Venture Landscape's Evolution Since 2011 (3:27)* The Entry of Accelerators Like YC and Mega Funds (6:21)* The Role of YC's Offer Structure in the Seed Market (9:14)* Mega Funds and the Influence of the Power Law (12:21)* AI's Market Impact and Opportunities for Seed Investors (15:18)* Defensibility and Differentiation in AI Applications (18:17)* The Importance of Distinct Strategies for Seed Funds (21:37)* Super Compounder Versus Classic Venture Approaches (24:26)* Adjusting Capital Allocation for Non-Consensus Companies (27:26)* The Role of Optionality in Navigating Downstream Capital (30:35)* NextView's Tactical Shift Toward Data and AI Tools (33:27)* Lessons on Discipline, Dogmatism, and Missed Opportunities (36:22)I'd love to know what you took away from this conversation with Rob. Follow me @SamirKaji and give me your insights and questions with the hashtag #ventureunlocked. If you'd like to be considered as a guest or have someone you'd like to hear from (GP or LP), drop me a direct message on X. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ventureunlocked.substack.com

Liz Peek, Fox News contributor, columnist for Fox News and The Hill, and former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & CompanyTopic: "As shutdown ends, furious Democrats eat their own" (Fox News op ed) Luis Muniz Jr., President of the Yonkers Hispanic Cultural FoundationTopic: Celebrating Yonkers Stephen Moore, "Joe Piscopo Show" Resident Scholar of Economics, Chairman of FreedomWorks Task Force on Economic Revival, former Trump economic adviser and the author of "The Trump Economic Miracle: And the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again"Topic: Future of Trump's tariffs Thomas Homan, Border Czar for the Trump administrationTopic: ICE arrests Moldovan illegal immigrant and convicted killer who threw a victim out a ninth-floor window Nicole Parker, Special Agent with the FBI from 2010 through October 2022, Fox News contributor, and the author of "The Two FBIs: The Bravery and Betrayal I Saw in My Time at the Bureau"Topic: Her book launch party last night, latest from the FBI Congressman Mike Haridopolos, Republican representing Florida's 8th Congressional DistrictTopic: Government shutdown Marc Morano, Former Senior Staff Member of the Senate Environment & Public Works Committee, publisher of ClimateDepot.com, and the author of "The Great Reset: Global Elites and the Permanent Lockdown"Topic: UN Climate ConferenceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Discover what drives lasting prosperity. This year, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt for demonstrating how technological innovation drove the surge in wealth during the Industrial Revolution. From steam engines to AI, learn why a lack of understanding once held back progress and why creative destruction is so important today. With AI now threatening jobs and monopolies limiting new ideas, could this progress be at risk? Explore the challenges, debates, and potential future dangers that could alter our economies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A clear and compassionate explanation of the moral, scientific, and spiritual issues surrounding IVF and assisted reproductive technologies. With insights from chemistry, theology, and philosophy, the discussion explores human dignity from the moment of conception, the meaning of love in bringing new life into the world, and the risks of treating children as products rather than gifts. Personal stories and logical reasoning highlight the deep emotional and societal implications of reproductive loss, infertility, and the growing industry built around assisted reproduction, while offering hope, healing, and a deeper understanding of the human person. IVF is not the Answer Book: https://sophiainstitute.com/?product=ivf-is-not-the-way (Sofia Institute) https://a.co/d/fAlYPAT (amazon) Dr. J's Interview with Katie McMann: https://youtu.be/AlqJvy5IX8o https://youtu.be/g_rbE5j2gYo Shiloh IVF Ministry: https://www.shilohivf.com/ Ruth Institute's Conception Brochure: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/children-and-donor-conception-and-assisted-reproduction/ 00:00 Introduction 03:43 Introducing Stacy 06:50 The Journey from Science to Faith 09:35 Understanding Infertility and Miscarriage 12:42 The Moral Case Against IVF 15:27 The Dignity of the Human Person 18:39 The Role of God in Human Dignity 21:13 The Current Cultural Context for IVF Discussion 29:50 The Love Behind the No to IVF 32:58 The Consequences of IVF 35:46 Personal Stories and Marital Impact 38:22 The Future of Reproductive Technology 42:37 The Psychological Impact of Anonymous Donorship 43:50 The Need for Love in Human Development 46:32 The Role of Heritage and Identity 49:14 The Commodification of Life 55:43 Hope and Redemption in Reproductive Choices 01:02:02 Final Words 01:03:25 Real Estate Commercial (1).mp4 Subscribe to our newsletter to get this amazing report: Refuting the Top 5 Gay Myths https://ruthinstitute.org/refute-the-top-five-myths/ Have a question or a comment? Leave it in the comments, and we'll get back to you! Watch the full episode, uncensored, on Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/Theruthinstitute Subscribe to our YouTube playlist:  @RuthInstitute   Follow us on Social Media: https://www.instagram.com/theruthinstitute https://twitter.com/RuthInstitute https://www.facebook.com/TheRuthInstitute/ https://theruthinstitute.locals.com/newsfeed Press: NC Register: https://www.ncregister.com/author/jennifer-roback-morse Catholic Answers: https://www.catholic.com/profile/jennifer-roback-morse The Stream: https://stream.org/author/jennifer-roback-morse/ Crisis Magazine: https://crisismagazine.com/author/jennifer-roeback-morse Father Sullins' Reports on Clergy Sexual Abuse: https://ruthinstitute.org/resource-centers/father-sullins-research/ Buy Dr. Morse's Books: The Sexual State: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/the-sexual-state-2/ Love and Economics: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/love-and-economics-it-takes-a-family-to-raise-a-village/ Smart Sex: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/smart-sex-finding-life-long-love-in-a-hook-up-world/ 101 Tips for a Happier Marriage: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/101-tips-for-a-happier-marriage/ 101 Tips for Marrying the Right Person: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/101-tips-for-marrying-the-right-person/ Listen to our podcast:  Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ruth-institute-podcast/id309797947 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/1t7mWLRHjrCqNjsbH7zXv1 Subscribe to our newsletter to get this amazing report: Refuting the Top 5 Gay Myths https://ruthinstitute.org/refute-the-top-five-myths/ Get the full interview by joining us for exclusive, uncensored content on Locals: https://theruthinstitute.locals.com/support

For as much as we all joke about the, "kids these days" mentality that every generation seems to have in one form or another, for most of human history this sentiment was often more anecdotalI than anything else. Typically we see youth as a combination of  'risky behavior' mixed with 'poor decision-making' - a dangerous cocktail to be certain - but trying something new at ANY stage of life will often look foolish to those on the outside. The question each of us faces, then, is how much are we willing to trust ourselves. It's a question my guest this week wants her clients to answer with confidence, and maybe a little bit of laughter. Nermin Jasani joins us this week for a conversation about how she went from managing to get into a Wall Street job at the height of the financial crisis to moving across the country to attempt a tech start up, ultimately coming back to the law as a consultant for other women in the profession. We discuss the importance of hiring good people, why technology is fantastic but can't replace our responsibilities, and how the business of law is always rooted in the economics of Supply & Demand.Enjoy the show!  

Listen to this episode before you begin holiday shopping or selling!Today I'm sharing a conversation I had with Rachel Duncan for the Money Healing Club Podcast where we go deeeeeep into how social media impacts our spending habits and finances.We talk about budgets, boundaries, and screentime. Then we explore why restriction isn't necessarily the answer to addiction — and why rebellion and pleasure may be better antidotes for feeling too online.We also explore the core concepts of my book, including: what's wrong with the attention economy, the negative impacts of extractive algorithms, and my 5 principles for gardening your attention.➡

Noah Henderson is the Director of the Sport Management Program and a Clinical Instructor at Loyola University Chicago's Quinlan School of Business. A widely recognized voice in sport management, his work explores the intersection of law, economics, and the social consequences of college athletics –– with a focus on name, image, and likeness (NIL), athlete labor rights, and sports gambling. Through his teaching, Henderson prepares students to lead in a dynamic era where college sports are rapidly professionalizing. Henderson was at the forefront of NIL implementation. He helped amend Illinois' NIL legislation and played a direct role in establishing early frameworks that facilitated the legal payment of college athletes. He continues to advise athletic departments, brands, and sports agents nationwide on NIL policy, legal compliance, and best practices. He has also provided written analysis that has been entered into the public record, contributing to national discourse on antitrust, roster structures, and athlete access in college athletics. He contributed extensively to Sports Illustrated's NIL Daily, where his reporting and commentary helped shape public understanding of the evolving business of college athletics. His insights have been featured by ESPN, NPR, CNN, PBS, Sportico, the Chicago Tribune, and others. He regularly speaks at accredited seminars and national symposiums, offering expertise on athlete rights and the future of college athletics. He holds a Juris Doctor from the University of Illinois College of Law and a degree in Economics from Saint Joseph's University, where he was a four-year letter winner on the golf team.

Itay Goldstein, Wharton Professor of Economics and Finance, analyzes Coinbase's $375 million acquisition of blockchain capital-raising platform Echo, exploring how reduced regulatory uncertainty, renewed interest in Initial Coin Offerings, and innovations like stablecoins are influencing the next stage of crypto market evolution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode, Chris Coyne speaks with Michael Romero, Mikayla Novak, and Anna Claire Flowers about the enduring influence of Kenneth Boulding on how we understand peace and cooperation. Romero discusses his paper “Markets as a Peace Lab,” coauthored with Virgil Storr, which explains how markets act as spaces where individuals cultivate trust, empathy, and peaceful exchange. Novak joins to discuss her paper “Kenneth Boulding's The Image: A Cognitive Basis for Peace Entrepreneurship,” connecting Boulding's insights on human cognition to the creative work of fostering peace. In the final part of the episode, Coyne and Flowers reflect on their coauthored paper “The Family and the Stable Peace,” highlighting how the family serves as a training ground for the habits and relationships that sustain cooperation. Together, these conversations show how Boulding's vision of peace continues to shape research on economics, society, and human flourishing.This is the second episode in a short series of episodes that will feature a collection of authors who contributed to the volume 1, issue 2 of the Markets & Society Journal or to a forthcoming special issue from The Review of Austrian Economics.Dr. Michael R. Romero is Professor of Economics and Business at Thales College. Previously, he was an associate program director for Academic & Student Programs and a Research Fellow for the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is an alum of the Mercatus PhD Fellowship.Dr. Mikayla Novak is a Senior Fellow with the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. She is a contributing editorial board member of Cosmos + Taxis and recently was the editor of Liberal Emancipation: Explorations in Political and Social Economy (Springer Nature, 2025).Anna Claire Flowers is a PhD student in Economics at George Mason University and is currently a fellow in the Mercatus PhD Fellowship. Her research interests include family economics, in particular the economic significance of family relationships and the economic factors that influence family decision-making.Show Notes:Kenneth Boulding's book, Stable Peace (University of Texas Press, 1978)Kenneth Boulding's book, The Image: Knowledge in Life and Society (University of Michigan Press, 1956).Elise Boulding's book, Cultures of Peace (Syracuse University Press, 2000)Learning for Peace Initiative | United Nations Children's FundThe Review of Austrian EconomicsF.A. Hayek's book, The Sensory Order: An Inquiry into the Foundations of Theoretical Psychology (The University of Chicago Press, 1952)Gerald P. O'Driscoll and Mario Rizzo's book, The Economics of Time and Ignorance (Routledge, 1996)Israel Kirzner's book, The Meaning of the Market Process: Essays in the Development of Modern Austrian Economics (Routledge, 1992)If you like the show, please subscribe, leave a 5-star review, and tell others about the show! We're available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and wherever you get your podcasts.Check out our other podcast from the Hayek Program! Virtual Sentiments is a podcast in which political theorist Kristen Collins interviews scholars and practitioners grappling with pressing problems in political economy with an eye to the past. Subscribe today!Follow the Hayek Program on Twitter: @HayekProgramFollow the Mercatus Center on Twitter: @mercatusCC Music: Twisterium

In this episode Ed interviews Dr. Chad Hart Ag economist at Iowa State University. They discuss the basics of ag economics, the current state of the ag economy and what the future may hold. Additional Resources https://faculty.sites.iastate.edu/chart/extension-presentations https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ https://www.card.iastate.edu/ Time Stamps   How to cite the podcast: Zaworski, E. (Host) Hart, C. (Interviewee). S4:E40 (Podcast). Dr. Doom's Crash Course in Ag Economics Part 2. 11/12/2025. In I See Dead Plants. Crop Protection Network.   Transcript

David Murphy, Economics and Public Affairs Editor, looks ahead to the government's new housing proposals, while assessing previous plans.

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, host Rebecca Christie sits down with Alexandra Jour-Schroeder, deputy director general of the European Commission's DG FISMA, and Bruegel's Silvia Merler, to discuss savings, investment and financial literacy. Sharing national best practices, monitoring what works and using EU funding can all support member state efforts to keep citizens in the know. They also discuss ways the EU can support development of accessible savings accounts and products. Better understanding of financial markets allows households to save for the future in ways that reflect their own priorities.  Related research: European Commission (2025), "EU to boost financial literacy and investment opportunities for citizens", available at https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/eu-boost-financial-literacy-and-investment-opportunities-citizens-2025-09-30_en Christie, R. McCaffrey, C. and D. Pinkus (2024) "EU savers need a single-market place to invest", Analysis, Bruegel

Market jitters over A.I. valuations persist. ‘Big Short' investor Michael Burry says hyper-scalers are overstating their earnings while Japan's Softbank sees its share price plunge following the sale of its stake in Nvidia. The company has pledged to double down on its OpenAI investment. Germany's Infineon hikes the FY forecast for its A.I. data centre revenue despite Q4 earnings coming in below expectations. CFO Sven Schneider is confident the A.I. boom will continue to drive the company's success. And in UK politics, a briefing war is raging with reports and counter-reports of a Labour leadership contest to oust Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer just a fortnight before his Chancellor's high-stakes budget.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ian Verrender, ABC's Business and Finance Editor, joined Philip Clark on Nightlife to discuss the latest in economic, business and finance news. 

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein discuss Ben Shapiro's statements about Tucker Carlson on Megyn Kelly's show, Trump talking about stimulus checks and 50 year mortgages, and more.Preorder Lauren Smith's book here: https://a.co/d/67djjBpSupport Our Sponsors:Visit http://www.twc.health/problem to get American Made Ivermectin at a price you can't beat. Order your 6-month supply today and use code PROBLEM for $30 Off + FREE shippingKalshi - https://kalshi.com/daveHexclad - Find your forever cookware @hexclad and get10% off at hexclad.com/PROBLEM! #hexcladpartnerTuttle Twins - https://www.tuttletwins.com/problemPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The American people begged their leaders to stand up to Trumpism. Instead, their Senate “leader” sold them out. When courage becomes optional, democracy becomes impossible...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann, guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast examines the response from the public after the shutdown ordeal and posits the question, "Where Should We Focus Our Anger?" Will Chuck Schumer stay as senate leader? Should he?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why is it okay to take the little shampoo bottles in hotels home with you but not the towels? And what stops people from taking the towels? Listen as political scientist Anthony Gill discusses the enforcement of property rights with EconTalk's Russ Roberts. Backing up their observations with insights from Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek, and our everyday lives, they argue that the unenforced norms surrounding trust, propriety, and moral sentiments play a central role in building a flourishing society.

8. The Final Negotiations and Hitler's Appointment. Tim Ryback discusses how on January 30, 1933, Hitler required the support of media magnate Alfred Hugenberg (40 seats) to achieve the coalition necessary for Hindenburg to appoint him Chancellor. Hugenberg, who sought to be Minister of Economics, desperately opposed Hitler's primary demand: holding new Reichstag elections. Hugenberg knew elections would cost him his vital seats. After holding out until the final moment in a dramatic crisis outside Hindenburg's office, he was cornered and reluctantly agreed. Hindenburg formally appointed Hitler Chancellor at 9:40 AM. Hugenberg subsequently noted he had made "the biggest mistake of his life." Within 18 months, key antagonists Schleicher, Strasser, and Röhm were murdered. 1933 Retry

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it's not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown. But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets – that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to "run it hot" means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But, without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself. And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity.The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits, like SNAP, halted. As a result, Consumer Discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over. The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.So what does all of this all mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what have been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run it hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

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