Podcasts about Economics

In this episode of the Solar Maverick Podcast, host Benoy Thanjan sits down with Dr. Hunter McDaniel, CEO of UbiQD, a quantum materials company redefining how light interacts with solar technology. Hunter breaks down quantum dots and explains how this nanotechnology can dramatically improve solar performance by optimizing the light spectrum. The conversation dives deep into UbiQD's landmark supply agreement with First Solar, including how quantum dots can significantly boost bifacial solar efficiency, especially for thin-film modules. The episode also explores broader applications of quantum dots from building-integrated photovoltaics, solar windows, to agriculture and offers hard earned advice for clean-tech and deep-tech entrepreneurs navigating long commercialization cycles. Key Topics Covered What quantum dots are and why they matter for solar How nanotechnology enables light optimization and higher PV efficiency Inside UbiQD's strategic partnership with First Solar Improving bifacial performance in thin-film solar modules Why materials innovation gives U.S. solar a competitive edge Solar windows, BIPV, and the future of net-zero buildings Lessons from building a deep-tech energy startup over 10+ years Why entrepreneurs should focus on solving pain points, not just technology Notable Takeaways Quantum dots allow precise tuning of light to match a solar cell's most efficient spectrum Small efficiency gains in solar can translate into massive real-world impact at scale Bifacial solar performance represents one of the biggest remaining efficiency frontiers Building-integrated solar may be essential for dense, urban, high-rise environments Deep-tech founders must stay customer-focused and resilient through long timelines Biographies Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy, solar developer and consulting firm, and a strategic advisor to multiple cleantech startups. Over his career, Benoy has developed over 100 MWs of solar projects across the U.S., helped launch the first residential solar tax equity funds at Tesla, and brokered $45 million in Renewable Energy Credits (“REC”) transactions. Prior to founding Reneu Energy, Benoy was the Environmental Commodities Trader in Tesla's Project Finance Group, where he managed one of the largest environmental commodities portfolios. He originated REC trades and co-developed a monetization and hedging strategy with senior leadership to enter the East Coast market. As Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners, Benoy crafted project finance solutions for commercial-scale solar portfolios. His role at Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund with 125 MWs of U.S. renewable assets, involved evaluating investment opportunities and maximizing returns. He also played a key role in the sale of the firm's renewable portfolio. Earlier in his career, Benoy worked in Energy Structured Finance at Deloitte & Touche and Financial Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, following an internship on the trading floor at D.E. Shaw & Co., a multi billion dollar hedge fund. Benoy holds an MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from NYU Stern, where he was an Alumni Scholar.   Dr. Hunter McDaniel  Dr. Hunter McDaniel is the CEO and Co-Founder of UbiQD, a quantum dot materials company focused on transforming energy, agriculture, and advanced materials through nanotechnology. He holds a PhD in Materials Science and previously conducted research at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Under his leadership, UbiQD has partnered with industry leaders like First Solar and continues to scale next-generation quantum dot manufacturing.   Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: info@reneuenergy.com  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com Website: https://www.solarmaverickpodcast.com/       Dr. Hunter McDaniel       Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hunter-mcdaniel-4563a735/      UbiQD: https://www.ubiqd.com       UbiGro (Agriculture): https://www.ubigro.com       https://wendow.us/       TED Talk       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ4whsRZoN4   Press Release  UbiQD and First Solar Establish Long-Term Quantum Dot Supply Agreement https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ubiqd-and-first-solar-establish-long-term-quantum-dot-supply-agreement-302500720.html   Please provide 5 star reviews      If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, review and share the Solar Maverick Podcast so more people can learn how to accelerate the clean energy transition.    Reneu Energy Reneu Energy provides expert consulting across solar and storage project development, financing, energy strategy, and environmental commodities. Our team helps clients originate, structure, and execute opportunities in community solar, C&I, utility-scale, and renewable energy credit markets. Email us at info@reneuenergy.com to learn more.

In this Best of 2025 special, The Lonely Office revisits the conversations that helped job seekers make sense of a new normal—where old career rules broke down and new ones quietly took shape. From power versus status, to remote work as negotiation, to AI's real impact on hiring, these moments cut through the hype and name what's actually happening beneath the headlines. Not shortcuts or silver bullets—just sharper language, better frameworks, and a little more agency for navigating work when certainty is gone. This is a great episode to recap 2025 and get ready for 2026! *Guests Featured Alison Fragale — Organizational Psychologist, Author & Professor of Management Daryl Fairweather — Chief Economist, Redfin Jeremy Schifeling — Founder and CEO, The Job Insiders Madeline Mann — Career Coach and Founder, Self Made Millennial Nick Bloom — Professor of Economics, Stanford University Phyl Terry — CEO and Co-Founder, Never Search Alone Hosts: Matt Sunbulli ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/sunbulli/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.firstdraft.vc⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Aaron Calafato ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Listen to Aaron's 7 Minute Stories Podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Leah Ova ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Leah on TikTok ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Editorial: Matt Sunbulli Brooks Borden Ken Wendt Senior Audio Engineer: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ken Wendt ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Research: Matt Sunbulli Zaid Safe Aaron Calafato

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The progressive Congressman from Washington state takes callers from across the nation. Plus- Thom reads from "The Fight for the Soul of the Democratic Party" by John Nichols.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump calls it “Trump Derangement Syndrome” when we object to cruelty and division. The real story is what that hate is doing to America's democracy, and when we finally push back…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dante joins Mark and Cris for an unusual jobs Tuesday podcast to break down the November employment report. Due to the prolonged government shutdown, the report delivered two months of payroll data, which continues to signal that the labor market is grinding to a halt. With the unemployment rate on the rise, the team discusses their updated recession probabilities, and Marisa's absence is felt as they struggle through the stats game.  Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Why is the world moving away from liberalism and towards conservatism?One of Britain's most provocative thinkers, John Gray is a political philosopher known for dismantling liberalism and exposing the illusions of human progress. Former Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics, Gray has challenged orthodoxy across the political spectrum with a body of work that ranges from critiques of Enlightenment rationalism to meditations on the limits of secular humanism.He is the bestselling author of Straw Dogs, The Silence of Animals, and Seven Types of Atheism as well as a frequent contributor to The Guardian, New Statesman, and The Times Literary Supplement. Gray's sharp insights and contrarian stance continue to shape contemporary debates on ethics, politics, and the future of humanity.Don't hesitate to email us at podcast@iai.tv with your thoughts or questions on the episode!To witness such debates live buy tickets for our upcoming festival: https://howthelightgetsin.org/festivals/And visit our website for many more articles, videos, and podcasts like this one: https://iai.tv/You can find everything we referenced here: https://linktr.ee/philosophyforourtimesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Streaming live Mondays at 6pm ET on The Jack Mallers Show YouTube channel.

Ken Rogoff does not trade in headlines or market timing. He trades in history.   As Professor of Economics at Harvard and co-author of This Time Is Different, Rogoff has spent decades studying what happens when societies convince themselves old rules no longer apply. His latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, extends that lens to today's economy – and to the quiet assumptions underpinning U.S. financial dominance.   In our conversation, Rogoff unpacked why the dollar's "exorbitant privilege" still matters, why it is slowly eroding, and why the real risks facing the U.S. economy are not where most people are looking.   This was not a discussion about panic. It was a discussion about probability.   Among the questions Rogoff addresses: Why does dollar dominance lower borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses – and what happens if that advantage fades? Why is the combination of high debt and higher interest rates historically dangerous, even for advanced economies? Why central bank independence matters more than most people realize – and why it is under pressure from both sides of the political spectrum. Why commercial real estate stress is serious but not systemic – and what risks matter more. Why AI could extend U.S. economic strength or trigger a sharp reversal – and why today's low volatility is misleading. Rogoff's core message is unsettling precisely because it is familiar. The United States has navigated debt, inflation, and institutional stress before. It did not escape unscathed. It adapted under pressure.   The question is not whether adjustment comes. It is how – and under what conditions.   If you care about macro risk, capital markets, or the long-term assumptions embedded in real estate and investment decisions, this conversation is worth your time.   Tune in to hear it in full.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Are we truly characters with agency, or are we just playing out our programming in the great video game of life? Contrary to those in his field who claim that free will is an illusion, neuroscientist Kevin Mitchell insists that we're agents who wield our decision-making mechanism for our own purposes. Listen as the author of Free Agents: How Evolution Gave Us Free Will explains to EconTalk's Russ Roberts why the debate between free will and determinism rests on a flawed foundation, and how the evolution of the ability to make choices and take actions provides the best argument for human agency. Topics include why habits, rather than simply limiting our freedom, also help us live better lives, and the role emotions such as guilt, shame, and regret play in building our character.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the significance of the Fed's decision to resume buying $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's decision last week and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, December 15th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week's Fed meeting provided incremental support for our positive 2026 outlook on equities. The Fed delivered on its expected hawkish rate cut but also indicated it would do more if the labor market continues to soften. More important than the rate cut was the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases. More specifically, the Fed intends to immediately begin buying $40 billion of T-Bills per month to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets. Based on our conversations with investors prior to the announcement, this amount and timing of bill buying exceeded both consensus, and my own expectations. It also confirms a key insight I have been discussing for months and highlighted in our Year Ahead Outlook. First, the Fed is not independent of markets, and market stability often plays a dominant role in Fed policy beyond the stated dual mandate of full employment and price stability.Second, given the size of the debt and deficit, the Fed has an additional responsibility to assist Treasury in funding the government, and will likely continue to work more closely with Treasury in this regard.Finally, the decision to intervene in funding markets sooner and more aggressively than expected may not be ‘Quantitative Easing' as defined by the Fed. However, it is a form of debt monetization that directly helps to reduce the crowding out from the still growing Treasury issuance, especially as Treasury issues more Bills over Bonds.At the Fed's October meeting, it indicated some concern about tightening liquidity which I have discussed on this podcast as the single biggest risk to the bull market in stocks. Evidence of this tightness can be seen in the performance of asset prices most sensitive to liquidity, including crypto currencies and profitless growth stocks.While the Fed probably isn't too concerned about the performance of these asset classes, it does care about financial stability in the bond, credit and funding markets. This is what likely prompted it to restart asset purchases sooner and in a more significant way than most expected.We view this as a form of debt monetization as I mentioned, given the Treasury's objective to issue more bills going forward. More importantly, these purchases provide additional liquidity for markets, and in combination with rate cuts, suggest the Fed is likely less worried about missing its inflation target. This is very much in line with our run it hot thesis dating back to early 2021. As a reminder, accelerating inflation is positive for asset prices as long as it doesn't force the Fed's hand to take the punch bowl away like in 2022. Ironically, the risk in the near-term is that this larger than expected asset purchase program may be insufficient if the Fed has materially underestimated the level of reserves necessary for markets to operate smoothly. This is what happened in 2019 and why the Fed created the Standing Repo Facility in the first place. However, this is more of a tool that is used on an as-needed basis. What the markets may want or need is a larger buffer if the Fed has underestimated the level of reserves required for smoothly functioning financial markets.To be clear, I don't know what that level is, but I do believe markets will tell us if the Fed has done enough with this latest provision. Liquidity-sensitive asset classes and areas of the equity market will be important to watch in this regard, particularly given how weak they traded last Friday and this morning.Bottom line, the Fed has reacted to the markets' tremors over the past few months. Should markets wobble again, we are highly confident the Fed will once again react until things calm down. Last week's FOMC meeting only increases our conviction in that case and keeps us bullish over the next 6-12 months, and our 7800 price target on the S&P 500. We would welcome a correction in the short term as a buying opportunity. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In 11 months, we'll have an opportunity to retrieve our democracy from the clutches of the morbidly rich, the ideologues who deify them (and have for millennia), & their bought-&-paid-for politicians…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We're the only country in the world with twice as many guns as people- because the arms industry wanted to make a crapload of money- and now we're living with the consequences.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomBlack Friday Spending Surges 8% on DebtSkilled Worker Shortage hits 1 MillionJapan Nears Debt CrashFed Admits it Lost $1 Trillion$2.5 Trillion in Welfare — Most of it Fraud Read the full article "$2.5 Trillion in Welfare — Most of it Fraud" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

What factors are driving nine months of labor force growth in Arizona? And what makes Phoenix one of the best cities in the country for startups? It's another Monday which means its Money Monday. Evan Taylor, University of Arizona Associate Economics Professor joined the show to discuss the biggest local and national money stories. 

European markets are set to open in the green following Friday's A.I.-led stock sell-off ahead of a variety of data prints and rate decisions later in the week. Ukraine abandons demands for NATO membership with peace talks continuing in Berlin. Security is increased at Hannukah events worldwide following the massacre of 15 people by two I.S.-inspired gunmen on Bondi Beach, Sydney yesterday.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In the very first episode of Scaling Theory, I mentioned a few scientists who have shaped my understanding of the world. At the very top of that list is today's guest: W. Brian Arthur.Brian was born and raised in Belfast, Northern Ireland, and went on to become one of the most important figures of complexity science. Today, he is widely known as the father of complexity economics, a field that has transformed how we think about the evolution of modern economies.His influence is remarkable. Brian's work has been cited more than 58,000 times according to Google Scholar. He received numerous awards and recognition, such as being the inaugural laureate of the Lagrange Prize in Complexity Science, an award that many have described as complexity's equivalent of the Nobel Prize. Brian has been, at age 37, the youngest endowed chair holder at Stanford University. He went on to work for my institutions, including the Santa Fe Institute, as we will talk about. On a personal note, I consider Brian a friend.Now, what makes me especially happy to have Brian on the podcast is the unique perspective he brings on how economies form and evolve. His understanding of technology, how it emerges and scales, offers a lens that none others have developed. It is a way of seeing economic life as something alive. Be ready to be blown away.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).**References:W. Brian Arthur, Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events (1989) https://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/arthur 1989.pdfW. Brian Arthur, Foundations of Complexity Economics (2021) https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7844781/pdf/42254_2020_Article_273.pdfW. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves (2009)W. Brian Arthur, Economics in Nouns and Verbs (2023) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268122003936Thibault Schrepel, The Evolution of Economies, Technologies, and Other Institutions: Exploring W. Brian Arthur's Insights (2024) https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/8809341E2E94D76B8CCAB4A4DDACBC4C/S1744137424000067a.pdf/evolution_of_economies_technologies_and_other_institutions_exploring_w_brian_arthurs_insights.pdf

Analysts Don Kellogg and Roger Entner share insights from Recon's new Super Owner Economics report as Comcast and Charter look to reshape the wireless industry through CBRS deployment.00:00 Episode intro 00:25 Comcast and Charter build out CBRS networks 02:57 Implications for Verizon and other MSOs 04:59 Cable's strategy and service bundling 06:41 FWA vs. fiber 07:51 Charter's approach to customers 08:48 Exploding prices are still around 10:35 Consumer satisfaction insights 11:51 Christmas episode teaser and episode wrap-upSuper Owner Economics: Charter & Comcast's Network Jiu-Jitsu - Digital Product ReportsTags: telecom, telecommunications, wireless, prepaid, postpaid, cellular phone, Don Kellogg, Roger Entner, cable, Charter, Comcast, spectrum, CBRS, network, AT&T, T-Mobile, rural, Verizon, bundling, FWA, fiber, DOCSIS 4.0, pricing, NPS, Spectrum Mobile

In its recent assessment, the International Monetary Fund India's national accounts statistics, which includes key figures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA), a grade of ‘C', the second-lowest grade there is. “National accounts data are available at adequate frequency and timeliness and provide broadly adequate granularity,” the IMF noted, adding, “However, some methodological weaknesses somewhat hamper surveillance and warrant an overall sectoral rating for the national accounts of C.” At a time when the government is celebrating 8.2% GDP growth, this grade has sparked uncomfortable questions. What is the IMF saying and is India truly growing as fast as the government claims?  Guest: Prof. B. Bhagwan Das, Former Associate Professor of Economics, Loyola College, Chennai Host: Nivedita V Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the Miami mayoral election a bellwether for the collapse of Republican support among hispanics? Or will the fascists hang on to office even if it takes using masked police to abduct people based on flimsy legal excuses?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Is the Supreme Court enabling King Trump to destroy the constitutional structure of our nation? Plus - Thom reads from 'Tax the Rich! How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer' by Erica Payne and Morris Pearl.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why 2026 might bring a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about our outlook for global credit markets in 2026 and why we think the credit cycle burns hotter before it burns out.It's Friday, December 12th at 2pm in London.Surely it can't go on like this. That phrase is probably coming up a lot as global credit investors sit down and plan for 2026. Credit spreads are sitting at 25 year plus tights in the U.S. and Asia. Issuance in corporate activity are increasingly aggressive. Corporate CapEx is surging. Signs of pressure are clear in the lowest rated parts of the market. And credit investors are trained to worry. Aren't all of these and more signs that a credit cycle is starting to crack under its own weight?Not quite yet, according to our views here at Morgan Stanley. Instead, we think that 2026 brings a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out. The reason is partly due to an unusually stimulative backdrop. Central banks are cutting interest rates. Governments are spending more money, and regulatory policy is easing. All of that, alongside maybe the largest investment cycle in a generation around artificial intelligence, should spur more risk taking from a corporate sector that has the capacity to do so.In turn, we think the playbook for credit is going to look a lot like 2005 or 1997-1998. Both periods saw levels of capital expenditure, merger activity, interest rates, and an unemployment rate that are pretty similar to what Morgan Stanley expects next year. And so, looking ahead to 2026, these two periods offer two competing ways to view the year ahead.2025 might be more similar to a period where the low-end consumer really is starting to struggle, but that another force – back then it was China, now it might be AI spending – keeps the broader market humming. 1997 or 1998, on the other hand, would be more similar to a narrative that investors are growing more confident that a new technology is really transformative. Back then, it was the internet and now it's AI.Corporate bond issuance we think will be central to how this resolves itself. This is a strong regional theme and a key driver of our views across U.S., European and Asia Credit. We forecast net issuance to rise significantly in U.S. investment grade up over 60 percent versus 2025 to a total of around $1 trillion.That rise is powered by a continued increase in technology spending to fund AI as well as a broader increase in capital expenditure and merger activity. All of those bonds being sold to the market should mean that U.S. spreads need to move wider to adjust. And that's true, even if underlying demand for credit remains pretty healthy, thanks to high yields, and the economy ultimately holds up.We think this story is a bit better in other areas and regions that have less relative issuance, including European and Asian investment grade and global high yield. They all outperform U.S. investment grade on our forecast. In total returns, we think that all of these markets produce a return of around 4 to 6 percent, and if that's true, it would underperform, say U.S. equities, but outperform cash.More granularly similar to 2025 or 2005, we think that single name and sector dispersion remain major themes. And where you position in maturity should also matter. Credit curves are steep and our U.S. interest rate strategist are expecting the U.S. Treasury curve to steepen significantly Further. That should mean that so-called carry and roll down and where you position on the maturity curve are a pretty big driver of your ultimate result. In our view, corporate bonds between five- and 10-year maturity in both the U.S. and Europe will offer the best risk reward.The most significant risk for global credit remains recession, which we think would argue for wider spreads on both economic rounds, but also through weaker demand as yields would fall. It would mean that our spread forecasts are too optimistic and that our expectation that high yield outperforms investment grade would be wrong. And then there's a milder version of this bear case – that aggression and corporate supply are even stronger than we think, and that creates conditions closer to late 1998 or 1999.Back then, U.S. investment grade spreads were roughly 30 basis points wider than current levels, even though the economy was strong and even though the equity market kept going up.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Donald Trump is having a very bad week as even many of his own supporters wake up to the fact that he's not actually working for them.Plus- director Donald Goldmacher joins Thom for a deep dive on his new movie 'Heist: Who Stole the American Dream?'.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As America slides into recession, this is a struggle over who owns America's future: a broad middle class—or a locked-in economy run by the richest few…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Adam joins Bob in reviewing Bob's recent conversation with Eric Weinstein, on his work (with Pia Malaney) in applying gauge theory to economics. Bob argues that neoclassical economists but also Austrians should consider Eric's bold proposals.Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The YouTube version of this conversation.This episode's sponsor, the Scott Horton Academy.Bob's original interview of Weinstein on the InFi podcast.The HamanNature substack.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

Story of the Week (DR):3 from Trump: Trump Orders SEC to Review Proxy Adviser Rules in ESG Rebuke AND Trump signs executive order for single national AI regulation standard, limiting power of states AND Trump says Netflix, WBD deal could be 'problem' as son-in-law Kushner backs Paramount bid Trump directed several federal agencies to tighten regulations on proxy advisers:The S.E.C. was ordered to review rules and guidelines regarding the industry, including revising or rescinding any related to diversity, equity and inclusion (known as D.E.I.) and environment, social and corporate governance (or E.S.G.).The F.T.C. and the attorney general were directed to examine state antitrust investigations into the companies to see if there was a “probable link” between those inquiries and potential violations of federal antitrust law.And the Labor secretary was told to review regulations about the fiduciary duties of proxy advisers and others who advise managers of certain employee retirement accounts.These firms “wield enormous influence over corporate governance matters,” the executive order reads, adding that they “regularly” use their power to “advance and prioritize radical politically motivated agendas” instead of focusing on shareholder returns.CEO Moves:Lululemon Athletica's C.E.O., Calvin McDonald, will step down as the athleisure clothing maker struggles to turn itself around. MMHis tenure had been criticized by the company's founder, Chip Wilson.The athleisure retailer said that Calvin McDonald will step down as CEO and board member, effective January 31. Lululemon CFO Meghan Frank and chief commercial officer André Maestrini will serve as interim co-CEOs while the company searches for a new leader.McDonald has served as CEO of Lululemon since 2018, during which time he built the company into a brand powerhouse. But the company has been underperforming for more than a year, with the weakness most apparent in its core North American markeTime to let a woman runInterim co-CEO: CFO Meghan FrankBoard chair Marti Morfitt (CEO of River Rock partners, Airborne, and CNS)Director Alison Loehnis (former president and ad interim CEO of Yoox Net-a-porter group)Levi Strauss CEO Michelle GassHorrible board skills:Economics and Accounting 34%Mechanical 19%Computers and Electronics 12%Sales and Marketing 5%Administrative 5%Coca-Cola names insider Henrique Braun as CEO, replacing James Quincey Quincey will transition to the role of executive chairmanDisney wants you to AI-generate yourself into your favorite Marvel movieThe media company is investing $1bn in OpenAI – and allowing its characters to be used in generated videosTech Billionaires Are Starting Private Cities to Escape the United StatesCoinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan shared his vision for the “ultimate exit” by tech industry elites from the “failing” United States. “I think it's fair to say, in 2025, we have a movement”That movement is the rise of “startup societies,” a pro-corporate, anti-government coalition of tech magnates, libertarian idealists, and neoliberal economic theorists.As the Financial Times notes in new reporting on the phenomenon, the movement is indeed growing. What once was the stuff of dystopian fiction like the Bioshock franchise is now the task of some 120 startup societies throughout the world, each scrambling to erect specially-built cities to court billionaires who feel maligned by organized society.Goodliest of the Week (MM/DR):DR: Eileen Higgins will be Miami's first-ever woman mayorDemocrat Eileen Higgins is a sharp contrast to her predecessor, Republican Francis Suarez, who leaned into masculinity politics during his termBS in mechanical engineering from the University of New Mexico; MBA from Cornell University; country director of the Peace Corps in Belize; foreign service officer for the U.S. Department of State; Miami–Dade County CommissionerRepublican Francis Suarez: son of former Miami mayor Xavier Suarez; attorney with the law firm Greenspoon Marder, specializing in corporate and real estate transactionsDR: U.S. Court Strikes Down “Unlawful” Trump Ban on Wind Energy ProjectsA U.S. federal court struck down an executive order by President Trump aimed at freezing new wind energy developments across the country, agreeing with a coalition of 18 State Attorneys General that the administration's order was “arbitrary and capricious and contrary to law.”MM: Nintendo's 98% staff retention rate means the average employee has been there 15 yearsAssholiest of the Week (MM):Just sayin…RJ Scaringe, who recently got a mini Musk pay package and can afford a secretary: Rivian's CEO said self-driving cars shouldn't just be able to drive, but also run errands for you like a secretary: 5Joe Lonsdale, Stanford grad: Palantir cofounder calls elite college undergrads a ‘loser generation' as data reveals rise in students seeking support for disabilities, like ADHD: 7 Palantir Chief Legal Officer went to Stanford undergrad, Harvard for law school - and I bet he's a good lawyer: Palantir Sues CEO of Rival AI Firm, Alleges Widespread Effort to Poach Employees Cracker Barrel customers, average age of 340 year old: Cracker Barrel diners are sounding the alarm; here's what reportedly has them furious: 3One of those customers, 73-year-old Craig Watkins of Northern California, told the Journal he has watched the chain's quality fade and wants old staples and original maple syrup restored."I want pure syrup on pancakes, not that watered-down junk," he said, adding that he brings his own syrup when he visits.Craig, pure maple syrup is WOKEMark Cuban, billionaire: Billionaire Mark Cuban Says If You Want To Get Rich, Give Things Up—Drink Water Instead Of Coffee, Eat Mac & Cheese Not McDonald's, 'Save Every Penny': 5Jim Cramer, CEO sycophant: Billionaires Won't Save You,' Says Jim Cramer. 'They're Out For Themselves' And 'Never Apologize For Their Negativity': 5Jim Cramer on Meta CEO: “Zuckerberg Makes Elon Musk Look Like a Real Softy”Sam Altman, who forgets for 10,000 years babies were raised without AI: Sam Altman makes his late-night debut, says he can't imagine 'figuring out how to raise a newborn without ChatGPT': 9Elon Musk, manbaby: Elon Musk says the E.U. should be 'abolished'Alex Karp, who is trying desperately to stay in headlines: Palantir CEO Says Legalizing War Crimes Would Be Good for Business: 10Bob Iger word-salading his investment in OpenAI: ‘Creativity is the new productivity': Bob Iger on why Disney chose to be ‘aggressive,' adding OpenAI as a $1 billion partner: 7Honorable mention:Red Pill Apple - People moves: Former Meta CLO joins Apple as new general counselJennifer Newstead was at Meta from 2019, prior was an appointee of Trump 1.0 at Department of State and way back is partially credited with drafting the Patriot Act in Bush Jr (the act that allows the US to spy on everyone). Normally a move like this no one cares about, but shouldn't we? This is a new exec with a red pill, eye-in-the-sky history joining a company who literally sells privacy - they did a whole commercial about it that aired for a yearShe joins as Tim Cook keeps showing up at every bro-fest dinner with Trump, Musk, Huang, and all the other techlords of the universeHeadliniest of the WeekDR: Woman Hailed as Hero for Smashing Man's Meta Smart Glasses on Subway DR: Sam Altman makes his late-night debut, says he can't imagine 'figuring out how to raise a newborn without ChatGPT'Has he never heard of a library?MM: Project to Resurrect Dead Grandmas Sparks ControversyMM: When David Ellison was 13, his billionaire father Larry bought him a plane. He competed in air shows before leaving it to become a Hollywood executiveWho Won the Week?DR: Miami shareholdersMM: Miami, who got their first female mayor and the first democrat in 30 years, is overqualified, and was running against a nepo babyPredictionsDR: Lululemon still picks a man, because DEI is illegalMM: After reading this headline: Cracker Barrel stock drops after-hours as chain reports losses from 'unique and ongoing headwinds' - Robby Starbuck renames himself Unique and Ongoing Headwind Starbuck.

The Roundtable Panel: a daily open discussion of issues in the news and beyond. Today's panelists are public policy and communications expert Theresa Bourgeois, former Associate Editor of the Times Union Mike Spain, Siena University Professor of Economics Aaron Pacitti and o Economics majors from Siena University Elizabeth Lankford, Emily Film, and Brendan Kasuba.

Who would be a policymaker right now? The list of economic problems that we need to solve ranges from “very difficult” to “existential”. An ambitious new book collects the ideas of many influential economists on how to approach these challenges. But can it avoid the mistakes of previous attempts to find an economic policy consensus? Andrés Velasco and Tim Besley are two of the editors of The London Consensus. Tim Phillips joined them at The London School of Economics to ask why the book was created, how policymakers can use it, and whether we should be wary of economists bearing paradigms. Download The London Consensus. https://www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-public-policy/research/london-consensus

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren't overpaying.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  This segment dives into Trump's claim that the U.S. economy could grow at 25% with low interest rates. From the Fed's money-printing reality to Washington's spending addiction, we cut through the noise and explain why Trump's off-the-cuff economics don't match how the system actually works.

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UK GDP data for October disappoints coming in at -0.1 per cent month on month with services output falling by 0.3 per cent. Oracle shares tumble to their lowest level since January as investors show their concern over the company's A.I.-related splurge but global markets reached new record highs during yesterday's session with the S&P 500 breaking through the 6,900-point mark for the first time. Disney and Open A.I. join forces in a $1bn deal with the entertainment giant licensing its characters to feature in the Sora video creation app.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by Scott Horton to discuss Trump's interest in war with Venezuela, how it relates to other terror wars in recent history, Scott's take on the state of Ukraine, and more.Use our code to sign up for Scott Horton Academy: https://scotthortonacademy.com/POTPSupport Our Sponsors:For the men! Balance hormones naturally with MARS from The Wellness Company! https://twc.health/problem and use code PROBLEM for 10% + Free Shipping on all orders.Kalshi - https://kalshi.com/daveVandy Crisps - https://vandycrisps.com/dave Use code "DAVE" for 25% offYoKratom - https://yokratom.com/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the Fed's path as inflation remains above its target and the labor market continues cooling.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Yesterday, the FOMC meeting delivered another quarter percentage point rate cut. Today we're here to discuss what happens next.It's Thursday, December 11th at 8:30 AM in New York. So, Mike, once again, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. That outcome was not a surprise, and the markets reacted positively. But there were some surprises. A bit of a divided FOMC, if you will. How did things play out during the meeting and what are some important takeaways to keep in mind? Michael Gapen: Yeah, well certainly Matt, it is a divided committee. I think that's clear. I think one key takeaway for me is the idea that the Fed is done with risk management rate cuts, and now we're back to data dependent. So, what does that mean? I mean, a risk management rate cut isn't necessarily about the data you have in hand and the data you see; it's your view about the distribution of risks around that. So, in some ways, you're not data dependent when you're making those cuts. Now, I think the challenge at this press conference for Powell was to say, ‘Well, now things are different.' And it was a nuance in the sense that cuts from here, if and when they come, will be data dependent. But I think at the same time he did not want to communicate that the bar for those rate cuts were exceptionally high. But I think he threaded the needle quite well in transitioning from risk management cuts, which aren't data dependent to an outlook, which is now more data dependent. And I thought he did that artfully well. So, for me, that's the big key. Secondarily I'd add a takeaway for me was he seems fairly confident that inflation will be coming down, and I think he still believes the labor market is cooling. The blend of that came across as a bit dovish to me. And then the third thing I would add is he fairly explicitly ruled out the risk of rate hikes. So, I think the combination of those three things: data dependence, still concerns about cooling in the labor market, and chopping off the upper half of the rate path distribution – those were kind of the key takeaways from my point. Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, with respect to the labor market, Chair Powell did address it in a couple of different ways. But one of the ways that stood out to my ears was how he described some technical factors that people are well aware of – that could mean the economy is actually shedding jobs to the tune of about 20,000 per month. I was wondering if you could just briefly address what those factors – that are supposedly so well known – might be. Michael Gapen: Sure. So, obviously the data that gets released, there are the initial releases and then there are revisions. And in the labor market, there are what are called annual benchmark revisions. So, the BLS released a preliminary estimate of that benchmark revision several months ago, and if you apply that initial estimate, it would suggest that job growth in 2025 could be about 60,000 jobs per month, less than has already been reported. But at the same time, we know immigration controls are slowing growth in the labor force. So, this is what Powell is calling the really curious balance. How can you have employment growth basically zero, maybe even negative, after these revisions come in – and the unemployment rate relatively stable. Yes, it's gone up a few tenths, but not like you would normally expect that rise would be if we were shedding jobs. So that to me is why he… You know; the technical factors about revisions and things that lead them to be, I think, very unsure about where the labor market is; and lean in the direction of thinking lower rates are better to manage those risks than where they were six months ago. Matthew Hornbach: One of the points that you raised in your opening explanation of the meeting was about inflation. And Chair Powell mentioned an expectation that the inflation related to tariffs would be peaking in the first quarter of the year. That sounded very familiar to me because I believe that's your expectation as well. I'm curious. How are you looking at tariffs and the inflation related to tariffs today? And do you agree with Chair Powell still? Michael Gapen: We do. Our modeling of the tariff pass through and our conversations with clients and firms and what we hear on corporate earnings calls suggests that this is a long process. Meaning tariffs go in place, prices don't go up the next month. Firms make pricing decisions that take time to implement. So, we agree that the tariff pass through story will extend into 2026 and likely through the end of the first quarter. And if that's true, then goods prices should continue to move higher. The year-on-year rate of inflation should move higher, peaking at 3 percent or a little above in the first quarter of the year. And then tat effect should we think be over, which would open the door for overall inflation to start coming back down. So, I will use the dreaded T-word. We think ultimately inflation from tariffs will be transitory. And I agree with the Chair's timeline; inflation should peak in the first quarter of the year and then start to trend down. That said, we think inflation will be above the Fed's 2 percent target into 2027, and this is the cost of providing insurance to the labor market. Matthew Hornbach: So finally, all things considered, what is your outlook for Fed policy in 2026? Michael Gapen: Yeah, and the key here, Matt, is that exactly what you just implied about tariffs and inflation still going on into 2026, right? Because what we know is while firms are gauging exactly where they should be pricing, they've been offsetting tariffs through lower demand for labor. So, we think the Fed will be cutting again in January. We have three months of employment data that come across two employment reports between now and the January meeting. We think they will show continued cooling in the labor market. And then we have a second cut next year in in April. So, while tariffs are getting passed through, we think the labor market will continue to cool. And this Fed will be biased to cutting rates to provide support to the labor market in the process. That would mean the federal funds rate gets to 3 – 3.25 percent in the second quarter of 2026, where we think it'll stay.So Matt, I'd like to ask you a question. What I noticed was the rate market backed up going into the meeting, despite the fact that market participants were projecting a cut. And then the rate market rallied, in my view, significantly during the meeting and right after. What do you think was happening there? Matthew Hornbach: So, there's a phenomenon that happens in all markets where investors often speculate on a potential outcome. And if the outcome is then delivered, the follow-on price action is underwhelming. That is colloquially known as buying the rumor and selling the fact. So, I think going into this meeting kind of in line with your expectations, investors were forming very similar expectations about how the FOMC statement itself would change and the implications that that might have for the future of Fed policy. When that hawkish cut was delivered almost exactly as you had expected, Mike, I think, investors started thinking about the future in a slightly different way. Now that their expectations were met with the meeting outcome, they started to consider, the data that is forthcoming. And whenever, officials at the Fed talk about data in the way that Chair Powell spoke about the data – and by which I mean labeled the labor market as potentially losing jobs at the moment, and labeling inflation as transitory, that we'd be past the peak of tariff related inflation after the first quarter of the year. Investors can kind of look at those factors and extrapolate going forward, what that may mean for Fed policy in the first half of 2026. So, I think similar to your expectations for policy after this meeting, investors probably became a bit more confident in your outlook for Fed policy that we would see additional rate cuts in the first half of next year. And then, of course, after the April meeting, the baton will be passed to the next Fed chair, and I think investors are considering what policy might look like under that new regime at the Fed. And on the margin, the view is that the next Fed chair would be more likely than not to continue the process of lowering policy rates. So, I think all of those factors played into the post press conference, and even during the press conference reaction. Michael Gapen: Okay Matt, one last question, if I may. How did the events of the FOMC this week and the market reaction, how does that dovetail with how you're thinking about longer term rates, in particular where you see 10-year yields going? And the dollar? Matthew Hornbach: So, 10-year yields are relatively close to 4 percent at this juncture, and we expect them to drift modestly lower in the first half of 2026, as the Fed continues this process of lowering the policy rate. One point that's very important to make here is that the longer-term Treasury yields today are now sitting well above the Fed's policy rate, and that hasn't been the case for many, many years now. A lot of investors with whom we speak think that longer term yields can head a lot higher from here. But we're skeptical – because the higher that those yields go relative to the Fed's policy rate, the more attractive those bonds become for other investors to buy. So, we don't expect a big increase in longer term interest rates. Unlike some investors, we are expecting interest rates in the long end to remain relatively stable with a downward bias.On the dollar, similarly, we have the dollar continuing its depreciation trend, which it began in January of 2025, earlier this year. We expect that depreciation trend to continue in the first half of 2026 before – similar to the interest rate path – we see a little bit of dollar strength in the second half of the year. And so, you know this being the last FOMC meeting of the year, Mike, I guess we're going to have to take a wait and see approach until the FOMC reconvenes in the new year. Thanks a lot for taking the time to talk about the Fed with me this year. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt. See you in 2026. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The convergence of pro-Kremlin policy, tech giveaways to rivals, and rising domestic repression is a five-alarm warning that we ignore at our own peril...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Threats to attack not only Venezuela- but maybe Mexico and Columbia as well... requiring social media history from visitors... abandoning and bullying our allies... illegal and random arrests and deportations of foreign nationals- what is this all about?Plus- Phill Ittner on the Ukraine war.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Harrison Bernstein is the founder of Soldiers To Sidelines (STS) and has served as executive director since May 2014. STS evolved from a passion project to a burgeoning nonprofit once Harrison resigned from coaching college and professional football to focus 100% on the STS mission. Harrison was able to attract key advisors and officers to help steward the mission. Since 2018, the board has grown to over 21 leaders in the military, sports, and business, and has built a staff of 9 employees. Harrison led his team to develop key partners and sponsors such as USO, Team RWB, Wounded Warrior Project, Women Veterans Alliance, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, the Randy Walker Legacy Foundation and the NFL NY Jets. In fact, he was awarded the NFL Salute To Service Nomination by the NY Jets for the second time this past year. Most recently Harrison authored and published "The Everyday Coach: Harnessing the Magic of Influence." The book is provided free to every STS Soldier Coach and all profits from sales support Soldiers To Sidelines. Harrison also hosts "Harrison Bernstein's Everyday Coach," an accompanying podcast that highlights leadership lessons learned from military heroes, business executives, and coaches to steward the craft of coaching in everyday life. In the past, Harrison has coached football and sports performance for several teams in the NFL, NCAA DIV I, II, and III, and at the high school level. While coaching, Harrison taught in the Master's Program of Exercise Science at George Washington University for seven years. Harrison graduated from Johns Hopkins University with a BA in Economics, was voted captain of the football team, and earned All American honors for three years and Conference Defensive Player of the Year in 1997. Connect at www.SoldierstoSidelines.org BOOK A SPEAKER: Interested in having John or one of our speaking team come to your school, club or coaching event? We are booking November and December 2025 and Winter/Spring 2026 events, please email us to set up an introductory call John@ChangingTheGameProject.com PUT IN YOUR BULK BOOK ORDERS FOR OUR BESTSELLING BOOKS, AND JOIN 2025 CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS FROM SYRACUSE MENS LAX, UNC AND NAVY WOMENS LAX, AND MCLAREN F1! These are just the most recent championship teams using THE CHAMPION TEAMMATE book with their athletes and support teams. Many of these coaches are also getting THE CHAMPION SPORTS PARENT so their team parents can be part of a successful culture. Schools and clubs are using EVERY MOMENT MATTERS for staff development and book clubs. Are you?  We have been fulfilling numerous bulk orders for some of the top high school and collegiate sports programs in the country, will your team be next? Click here to visit John's author page on Amazon Click here to visit Jerry's author page on Amazon Please email John@ChangingTheGameProject.com if you want discounted pricing on 10 or more books on any of our books. Thanks everyone. This week's podcast is brought to you by our friends at Sprocket Sports.  Sprocket Sports is a new software platform for youth sports clubs.  Yeah, there are a lot of these systems out there, but Sprocket provides the full enchilada. They give you all the cool front-end stuff to make your club look good– like websites and marketing tools – AND all the back-end transactions and services to run your business better so you can focus on what really matters – your players and your teams. Sprocket is built for those clubs looking to thrive, not just survive, in the competitive world of youth sports clubs.  So if you've been looking for a true business partner – not just another app – check them out today at https://sprocketsports.me/CTG. BECOME A PREMIUM MEMBER OF CHANGING THE GAME PROJECT TO SUPPORT THE PODCAST If you or your club/school is looking for all of our best content, from online courses to blog posts to interviews organized for coaches, parents and athletes, then become a premium member of Changing the Game Project today. For over a decade we have been creating materials to help change the game. and it has become a bit overwhelming to find old podcasts, blog posts and more. Now, we have organized it all for you, with areas for coaches, parents and even athletes to find materials to help compete better, and put some more play back in playing ball. Clubs please email John@ChangingTheGameProject.com for pricing.  Become a Podcast Champion! This weeks podcast is also sponsored by our Patreon Podcast Champions. Help Support the Podcast and get FREE access to our Premium Membership, with well over $1000 of courses and materials. If you love the podcast, we would love for you to become a Podcast Champion, (https://www.patreon.com/wayofchampions) for as little as a cup of coffee per month (OK, its a Venti Mocha), to help us up the ante and provide even better interviews, better sound, and an overall enhanced experience. Plus, as a $10 per month Podcast Super-Champion, you will be granted a Premium Changing the Game Project Membership, where you will have access to every course, interview and blog post we have created organized by topic from coaches to parents to athletes. Thank you for all your support these past eight years, and a special big thank you to all of you who become part of our inner circle, our patrons, who will enable us to take our podcast to the next level. https://www.patreon.com/wayofchampions

Welcome to a bonus episode of Inside Economics. This is a recording that took place between Mark Zandi and our most recent podcast guest, Daleep Singh at the Aspen Ideas Festival a couple of months ago. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Trump's interview with Politico where he talks about Ukraine and Venezuela, Nick Fuentes on Piers Morgan's show, and more.Order Lauren Smith's book here: https://a.co/d/67djjBpSupport Our Sponsors:Hexclad - Find your forever cookware @hexclad and get10% off at https://hexclad.com/PROBLEM! #hexcladpartnerProlon - https://prolonlife.com/potpRugiet - Get 15% off your first order by going to http://rugiet.com/DAVE and using code DAVE.Kalshi - https://kalshi.com/davePart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We've never lied to you on Drilled and we're not going to start now. It's bleak out there. But some efforts to fight back against obstruction are working and litigation is one of them. In this episode we talk to London School of Economics' Joana Setzer about how courts around the world are getting involved and what that means for companies that keep reminding us they're global. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang unpack Asia's broadening economic recovery and focus on China's path to market stability in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Laura Wang: Today – our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.It's Wednesday, December 10th at 10am in Hong Kong.Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close; and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think, probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front. But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8 percent this year so far. What's your explanation for this surprise?Chetan Ahya: Well, yes, Laura, you know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China. And therefore, we were concerned that [the] regions' exports may be affected negatively. However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region. And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.But the good news is that non-tech exports will recover in 2026. In fact, that's the key call we are making – that from early next year, you will see that improvement in the U.S. domestic demand that helps Asia's exports. And at the same time, we are expecting that bulk of this tariff-related uncertainty would be behind us. And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non-tech exports in 2026.Laura Wang: That's great. How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non-tech?Chetan Ahya: Well, we think that's very important for [the] regions' economic outlook. Because when you think about the tech exports recovery, it was helpful to keep [the] regions' overall exports growth strong, but it did not have the broader multiplier effect on the economy. So, for example, when you think about the tech exports, it tends to be more capital intensive, and we don't see much benefit on job growth.I think the best example I can give you is when you look at the Taiwan economic numbers. We've seen very strong GDP growth year-to-date. But at the same time, consumption numbers have been very weak. And so, non-tech exports recovery is very important for the broader economic recovery, and that is precisely what we expect in 2026. You will see that broadening out of growth with follow up in CapEx, job growth, and consumption recovery.Laura Wang: Your work suggests that Asia inflation will pick up modestly in 2026. What factors are behind this trend?Chetan Ahya: Well, as the non-tech exports recovery materializes, you should see improvement in capacity utilization across the board in the region. That should reduce the disinflationary pressures that we've been seeing year-to-date. And at the same time, we are expecting that the disinflationary pressures that the region was facing from China is also going to ease in 2026.Laura Wang: How will Asia central banks respond to keep inflation within their comfort zones? And what does this mean for monetary policy across the region in 2026?Chetan Ahya: Well actually, there's not much concern about keeping the inflation within the central bank's comfort zone because what we've seen year-to-date in Asia is that Inflation has been much lower than the central bank's target for a number of economies in the region. And they have been responding to this with more interest rate cuts.But going forward, as disinflationary pressure is reduced, we are expecting that the central banks in the region would end their rate cutting cycle. We should see just about one to two more rate cuts for some of the central banks. And then policy rates should remain largely stable through to the end of 2026.So, Laura, let me come to you now. So, 2025 was a very strong year for China markets. And you see 2026 as a ‘keep it steady' year rather than a breakout year. What does stability look like for investors and companies?Laura Wang: That's right, 2025 was a very good year for China equity market. We saw both MSCI China and Han Sang Index delivering more than 30 percent return in absolute terms. Going into 2026, we see it as a year for investors and for the market to preserve and protect what has been achieved in 2025 so far, but not with significantly much higher upside at this point. This is because the valuation re-reading we've seen so far in 2025 is already more than 30 percent, close to 40 percent.In [20]26, we think the valuation will largely stay at its current level, and further upside for the market will be more driven by solid earnings growth. For 2026, we see MSCI China's earnings growth year-on-year at around 6 percent.Chetan Ahya: So, with that backdrop, Laura, do you expect more inflows into the market next year?Laura Wang: Absolutely. Actually, we have already talked to so many investors on a global basis, and we are seeing much higher level of interest in investing in Chinese equities, particularly in some R&D and innovation heavy sectors.That being said, what we are seeing also is relatively light positioning by global investors in Chinese equities – actually across the board, still a quite sizable underweight, which means there will be much higher room for them to increase their allocation gradually in 2026 back to China.Chetan Ahya: And with the U.S.-China tensions easing a bit, and China doubling down on AI and smart manufacturing, where do you see the real-world opportunities from that?Laura Wang: There will be a lot of opportunities inside Chinese equity market, but we do want to stay with the names that will be delivering very solid earnings growth in the next few years. And we also want to highlight the next five years growth strategy laid out by Chinese policy makers.We want to make sure that we focus on the sectors that are very well aligned with the national growth strategy with a strong focus in R&D and innovation – and that would include AI as well as smart manufacturing, automation, robotics, and biotech. We also have collected very high level of interest from global investors in these sectors.At the same time, as we start to see less deflation pressure in 2026, but still with it potentially persisting into 2027, we want investors to still hold on to some exposure to high quality dividend plays. The steady cash returns from these stocks will help you navigate through some volatilities in the market in next year.Chetan Ahya: So, you expect global investors returning, mainland investors shifting money from savings into stocks, and strong cross-border trading within Hong Kong. What does that mean for market behavior and thematic opportunities?Laura Wang: One very positive development we have observed in 2025 is the strong capital market activities in Hong Kong. Hong Kong at single stock exchange basis actually is the most active IPO market in the world in 2025, and with policy support for Hong Kong to continue as a global financial hub, we expect this trend to continue. So, we are seeing more and more capital market activities happening in Hong Kong and mainland China in the next year. And in terms of thematic opportunities, I already mentioned that opportunities align with the national growth strategy with very heavy innovation and R&D focus. Along these opportunities, we're also heavy recommending investors to focus on thematic opportunities such as anti-evolution, as well as corporate governance reform.That summarizes our New Year outlook for Asia economy as well as China equity market. Chetan, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

As Baby Boomers continue to retire, some analysts expect financial markets to feel the strain. We examine whether demographic shifts truly shape stock and bond returns, or what other factors matter more.Topics covered include:Will retiring baby boomers lead to lower stock prices or higher interest ratesSome earlier demographic predictions and how they worked outHow do natural interest rates reflect the demand and supply of capitalWhy demographics are only one factor that determines economic growth and financial market returnsSponsorsGelt - Taxes Done RightDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesZeihanHarry DentMeasuring the Natural Rate of Interest—Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkDistribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989—The Federal ReserveRelated EpisodesRelated Episodes487: Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? Global Economic and Population Shifts445: From Boom to Bust—Why China's Stocks Lagged Behind Its Economy & Where to Invest Next395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing and Well BeingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As Trump knifes democratic Ukraine in the back, and puts down our steadfast European allies, is this the next big step in Putin's plan for the USA?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If we allow a network of secretive, cruel, detention facilities for one set of powerless people today, tomorrow it will inevitably turn those same systems against anyone who challenges their power.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, Dan Hugger speaks with Peter J. Boettke, Distinguished University Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as the director of the F. A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, about the importance of the history of economic thought […]

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Marjorie Taylor Greene's post-Trump conflict interview, Rachel Maddow on Stephen Colbert talking about Russia-gate, and more.Order Lauren Smith's book here: https://a.co/d/67djjBpSupport Our Sponsors:Visit https://twc.health/problem to get American Made Ivermectin. Order your 6-month supply today and use code PROBLEM for $30 Off + FREE shipping. USA Residents only.BodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderBetter Help - https://Betterhelp.com/problem for 10% off your first monthBrunt Workwear - http://bruntworkwear.com/ Use code PROBLEMPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

My guest this week is Gavin Baker. Gavin is the managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and he has been on the show many times before.  I will never forget when I first met Gavin in 2017. I find his interest in markets, his curiosity about the world to be as infectious as any investor that I've ever come across. He's encyclopedic on what is going on in the world of technology today, and I've had the good fortune to host him every year or two on this podcast. Gavin began covering Nvidia as an investor more than two decades ago, giving him a rare perspective on how the company – and the entire semiconductor ecosystem – has evolved. A lot has changed since our last conversation a year ago, making this the perfect time to revisit the topic. In this conversation, we talk about everything that interests Gavin – Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, the changing AI landscape, the math and business models around AI companies and everything in between. We also discussed the idea of data centers in space, which he communicates with his usual passion and logic. In closing, at the end of this conversation, because I've asked him my traditional closing question before, I asked him a different question, which led to a discussion of his entire investing origin story that I had never heard before. Because Gavin is one of the most passionate thinkers and investors that I know, these conversations are always amongst my most favorite. I hope you enjoy this latest in the series of discussions with Gavin Baker. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform. ----- This episode is brought to you by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:04:00) Meet Gavin Baker (00:06:00) Understanding Gemini 3  (00:09:05) Scaling Laws for Pre-Training (00:12:12) Google v. Nvidia (00:16:52) Google as  Lowest Cost Producer of Tokens (00:28:05)  AI Can Automate Anything that can be Verified (00:34:30) The AI Bear Case: Edge AI (00:37:18) Going from Intelligence to Usefulness (00:43:44) AI Adoption in Fortune 500 Companies (00:48:58) Frontier Models and Industry Dynamics (00:56:40) China's Mistake and Blackwell's Geopolitical Leverage (00:57:50) OpenAI's Code Red (01:00:46) Data Centers in Space (01:07:13) Cycles in AI (01:11:10) Power as a Bottleneck (01:14:17) AI Native Entrepreneurs (01:16:21) Semiconductor VC (01:20:41) The Mistake the SaaS Industry is Making (01:26:50) Series of Bubbles (01:28:56) Whatever AI Needs, It Gets (01:29:57) Investing is the Search for Truth (01:31:24) Gavin's Investing Origin Story

This week, Paul and Goldy look back at the most notable economics books of the year. They discuss Ezra Klein and David Thompson's Abundance, Cory Doctorow's blistering Enshittification, Thomas Piketty's new works on inequality, Diane Coyle's fresh take on GDP, and the overlooked history behind the Garland Fund. Whether you're hunting for a holiday gift for the wonk in the family or looking to understand the ideas driving today's political economy, this episode is full of must-reads.  Must-Read Economics Books 2025 Abundance by Ezra Klein and David Thompson Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It by Cory Doctorow Equality Is a Struggle by Thomas Piketty Nature, Culture, and Inequality by Thomas Piketty Equality: What It Means and Why It Matters by Thomas Piketty and Michael J. Sandel The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters by Diane Coyle The Radical Fund: How a Band of Visionaries and a Million Dollars Upended America by John Fabian Witt Honorable Mention Ricardo's Dream: How Economists Forgot the Real World and Led Us Astray By Nat Dyer  Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies by Cesar Hidalgo  Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America by Robert Reisch  Mood Machine: The Rise of Spotify and the Costs of the Perfect Playlist Liz Pelly  Other Books Mentioned in Episode Homelessness is a Housing Problem by Greg Colburn & Clayton Page Aldern Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress--And How to Bring It Back by Marc Dunkelman Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty The Gardens of Democracy: A New American Story of Citizenship, the Economy, and the Role of Government by Nick Hanauer & Eric Liu  Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx  Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Facebook: Pitchfork Economics Podcast Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics TikTok: @pitchfork_econ YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠