Podcasts about Economics

Trump killed the voice of America, our message to Europe, and is replacing it with right wing think tanks in Europe. The Trump administration has warned that Europe faces "civilisational erasure" and questioned whether certain nations can remain reliable allies, in a new strategy document that puts a particular focus on the continent. Plus Incompetence Alert! RFK Jr claims KETO diets can cure schizophrenia. The claim vastly overstates preliminary research into whether the high-fat, low-carbohydrate diet might help people with the disorder, experts said.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, farmer and chef Bruce Young of Blue Gate Farm talks about the viability and profitability of selling bread at farmers markets.   Subscribe for more content on sustainable farming, market farming tips, and business insights!   Get market farming tools, seeds, and supplies at Modern Grower. Follow Modern Grower:  Instagram  Instagram Listen to other podcasts on the Modern Grower Podcast Network:  Carrot Cashflow  Farm Small Farm Smart  Farm Small Farm Smart Daily  The Growing Microgreens Podcast  The Urban Farmer Podcast  The Rookie Farmer Podcast  In Search of Soil Podcast Check out Diego's books:  Sell Everything You Grow on Amazon   Ready Farmer One on Amazon **** Modern Grower and Diego Footer participate in the Amazon Services LLC. Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

durée : 00:52:11 - Répliques - par : Alain Finkielkraut - Suspension de la réforme des retraites, dette sociale, rapport au travail : la France peut-elle encore se réformer sans renoncer à son modèle social ? - réalisation : Alexandra Malka - invités : Philippe Aghion économiste français, prix Nobel d'économie 2025, professeur au Collège de France et à la London School of Economics; Nicolas Dufourcq Directeur général de Bpifrance

Hey Smarties! There won't be a livestream for “Economics on Tap” today. But don't worry! “Economics on Tap” will return soon on Feb. 20. For now, we're sharing a new episode from our friends over at “This Is Uncomfortable.” Enjoy!“Work Drama” is the “This Is Uncomfortable” advice column, answering your questions about sticky work situations. This week, Reema tackles your questions about workplace tension, co-worker cliques, bosses behaving badly, and some bizarre office policies. And she's joined by one of our favorite culture writers and podcasters, Sarah Hagi, who hosts “Scamfluencers.”If you have any work drama going on, we want to hear about it! You can send it to us at uncomfortable@marketplace.org, leave a message at 347-RING-TIU, or fill out the form at the bottom of the page.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Hey Smarties! There won't be a livestream for “Economics on Tap” today. But don't worry! “Economics on Tap” will return soon on Feb. 20. For now, we're sharing a new episode from our friends over at “This Is Uncomfortable.” Enjoy!“Work Drama” is the “This Is Uncomfortable” advice column, answering your questions about sticky work situations. This week, Reema tackles your questions about workplace tension, co-worker cliques, bosses behaving badly, and some bizarre office policies. And she's joined by one of our favorite culture writers and podcasters, Sarah Hagi, who hosts “Scamfluencers.”If you have any work drama going on, we want to hear about it! You can send it to us at uncomfortable@marketplace.org, leave a message at 347-RING-TIU, or fill out the form at the bottom of the page.

Surprise Surprise?! TrumpRX is a fake. Read the fine print. Alarm as Trump's FBI called a "horrifying" meeting of state election officials. America is stronger when we recognize each other as fully human. The moment we let that slip, we all lose something precious. Also John Parker of Minnesota's Progressive AM 950 Radio reports from Minneapolis. Plus Robert Greenwald reports on Gaza: Journalists Under Fire. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This wasn't a joke or a mistake but a warning about how racism, silence, and abuse of power are eating away at democracy…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Conflict is raging in more than 30 countries around the world, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace. Each conflict is creating a dire humanitarian situation for innocent civilians, but many aid organizations now call Sudan the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Volker Türk is the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights. He just visited Sudan and joined the show to tell us what he saw there.  Also on today's show: Director/writer Kleber Mendonça Filho and actor Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"; Jodi Kantor, Investigative Reporter, The New York Times    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

CrowdScience listener Griffith in Ghana, isn't JUST a CrowdScience listener. He's also a listener to our sister show on the World Service, Unexpected Elements. But he's noticed something funny. In the weekly Unexpected Elements multiple-choice quiz, the answer is almost NEVER ‘a'. It's nearly always ‘b', or ‘c'. Why is this? When we set the quiz, why are we so reluctant to choose option ‘a'? His question leads presenter Alex Lathbridge on a journey into the murky depths of our brain, where he discovers the cognitive biases which so often trip us up in games of chance, or probability. Your brain might be a marvellous machine when it comes to figuring out how to understand the world, but sometimes, in the name of efficiency, it takes clever little short-cuts to the answer. This pragmatic approach to problem solving helps us manage an incredibly complicated world. But occasionally, especially when it comes to mathematics, chance, and probability, it leads us in the wrong direction. With the help of mathematician Kit Yates from the University of Bath in the UK, and some rather stale sweets, Alex will be finding out how to win at games of chance. Alex also explores the world of gaming, and gambling. Games of chance in which our intuition sometimes lets us down, and makes us choose unwisely. Rachel Croson, Professor of Economics at the University of Minnesota, USA, talks us through how the human brain can work against us. But can knowledge of those human pitfalls help us to win? Alex hears from Maria Konnikova, who turned her research on the psychology of poker into a successful gambling career. Can we really use maths to beat our brains, and learn how to win more often?   Presenter Alex Lathbridge Producer Emily KnightEditor Ben Motley(Photo: Close up image of multiple choice question. Credit: BBC)

In the Oscar-winning film Shakespeare in Love, theater owner Henslowe explains that the theatrical business faces "insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster," yet somehow "it all turns out well.” It's a mystery he can't explain. This week's podcast channels that spirit as Moody's Analytics economist, Dante DeAntonio, joins Mark and Cris to dissect the labor market despite the delayed employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The team navigates volatility across financial markets and examines the outlook for employment and consumer spending in light of AI adoption and the stabilization of the saving rate. Like Henslowe's faith that the show goes on, they explore whether the economy will find its way through even when the data arrives fashionably late.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, we discuss SpaceX's audacious plan to launch a million AI data center satellites into orbit, outlining the logistical and economic reasons behind this move. We also explore the recent merger with XAI and the profound implications this infrastructure shift could have on the future of AI computing and global data center capacity.Chapters00:00 SpaceX's Million Satellite Data Center01:58 AIbox, Affordable AI Access04:02 SpaceX XAI Merger & FCC Filing07:11 Economics of Space Data Centers11:02 Merger Rationale and Future Vision15:12 De-orbiting and Future Demand LinksGet the top 40+ AI Models for $20 at AI Box: ⁠⁠https://aibox.aiAI Chat YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@JaedenSchaferJoin my AI Hustle Community: https://www.skool.com/aihustle

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Kash Patel's public handling of the newest Epstein files released, Bill Gates' statements when asked about his scandal related to the files, more updates from Iran, and more.Support Our Sponsors:The Wellness Company - Manage midlife with MARS from The Wellness Company! http://www.twc.health/problem & use code PROBLEM for 10% + Free ShippingBodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderCrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpCowboy Colostrum - Get 25% Off Cowboy Colostrum with code DAVE at https://www.cowboycolostrum.com/DAVEPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

A historical warning about how presidents escape, aides go to prison, and “just following orders” has never saved anyone...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Conservative Joe Walsh joins Thom to dissect the fascist project that the Republican party has become. This is not your father's political party. Plus a National Progressive Town Hall with US Rep. Mark Pocan. joins Thom to dissect the fascist project that the Republican party has become. This is not your father's political party. Plus A National Progressive Town Hall with US Rep. Mark Pocan.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

They're called "zombie mortgages" — debts that homeowners thought were forgiven long ago, only to learn that they still exist and could cost them their homes. Economics correspondent Paul Solman and producer Diane Lincoln Estes report on these back-from-the-dead debts, in partnership with the documentary news group Retro Report. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Affordability is back in focus in D.C. after the brief U.S. shutdown. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore look at some proposals in play.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the continued focus on affordability, and how to parse signals from the noise on different policy proposals coming out of D.C.It's Wednesday, February 4th at 10am in New York. Ariana Salvatore: President Trump signed a bill yesterday, ending the partial government shutdown that had been in place for the past few days. But affordability is still in focus. It's something that our clients have been asking about a lot. And we might hear more news when the president delivers his State of the Union address on February 24th and possibly delivers his budget proposal, which should be around the same time. So, needless to say, it's still a topic that investors have been asking us about and one that we think warrants a little bit more scrutiny. Michael Zezas: But maybe before we get into how to think about these affordability policies, we should hit on what we're seeing as the real pressure points in the debate. Ariana, you recently did some work with our economists. What were some of your findings? Ariana Salvatore: So, Heather Berger and the rest of our U.S. econ[omics] team highlighted three groups in particular that are feeling more of the affordability crunch, so to speak. That's lower income consumers, younger consumers, and renters or recent home buyers. Lower income households have experienced persistently higher inflation and more recently weaker wage growth. Younger consumers were hit hardest when inflation peaked and are more exposed to higher borrowing costs. And lastly, renters and recent buyers are dealing with much higher shelter burdens that aren't fully captured in standard inflation metrics. Now, the reason I laid all that out is because these are also the cohorts where the president's approval ratings have seen the largest declines. Michael Zezas: Right. And so, it makes sense that those are the groups where the administration might be targeting some of these affordability initiatives. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. But that's not the only variable that they're solving for. Broadly speaking, we think that the president and Republicans in Congress really need to solve for four things when it comes to affordability policies. First, targeting these quote right cohorts, which are those, as we mentioned, that have either moved furthest away from the president politically, or have been the most under pressure. Second feasibility, right? So even if Republicans can agree on certain policies, getting them procedurally through Congress can still be a challenge. Third timing – just because the legislative calendar is so tight ahead of the November elections. And fourth speed of disbursement. So basically, how long it would take these policies to translate to an uplift for consumers ahead of the elections. Michael Zezas: So, thinking through each of these constraints, starting with how easy it might be to actually get some of these policies done, most of the policies that are being proposed on the housing side require congressional approval. In terms of these cohorts, it seems like these policies are most likely to focus on – that seems aimed at lower-income and younger voters. And in terms of timing, we know the legislative calendar is tight ahead of the midterms, and the policy makers want to pursue things that can be enacted quickly and show up for voters as soon as possible. Ariana Salvatore: So, using that lens, we think the most realistic near-term tools are probably mostly executive actions. Think agency directives and potential changes to tariff policy. If we do see a second reconciliation bill emerge, it will probably move more slowly but likely cover some of those housing related tax credit changes. But of course, not all these policies would move the needle in the same way. What do we think matters most from a macro perspective? Michael Zezas: So, what our economists have argued is that the affordability policies being discussed – tax credits subsidies, payment pauses – they could be meaningful at a micro level for targeted households, but for the most part, they don't materially change the macro outlook. The exception might be tariffs; that probably has the broadest and most sustained impact on affordability because it directly affects inflation. Lower tariffs would narrow inflation differentials across cohorts, support real income growth and make it easier for the Fed to cut rates. Ariana Salvatore: Right. And just to add a finer point on that, I think directionally speaking, this is where we've seen the administration moving in recent months. Remember, towards the end of last year, the Trump administration placed an exemption on a lot of agricultural imports. And just the other day, we heard news that the trade deal with India was finalized reducing the overall tariff rate to 18 percent from about 50 percent prior. Michael Zezas: Okay. So, putting it all together for what investors need to know. We see three key takeaways. First, even absent new policy, our economists expect some improvement in affordability this year as inflation decelerates and rate cuts come into view. And specifically, when we talk about improvements in affordability, what our economists are referring to is income growth consistently outpacing inflation, lowering required monthly payments. Second, most proposed affordability policies are unlikely to generate the meaningful macro growth impulse, so investors shouldn't overreact to headline announcements. And third, the cohort divergence matters for equities. Pressure on lower income in younger consumers helps explain why parts of consumer discretionary have lagged. While higher income exposed segments have remained more resilient. So, if inflation continues to cool, especially via tariff relief, that's what would broaden the consumer recovery and potentially create better returns for some of the sectors in the equity markets that have underperformed. Ariana Salvatore: Right, and from the policy side, I would say this probably isn't the last time we'll be talking about affordability. It's politically salient. The policy responses are likely targeted and incremental, and this should continue to remain a top focus for voters heading into November. Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Investigative Reporter at 'Bette Dangerous' and Substack, Byline Times, Heidi Siegmund Cuda explains the ‘separatist' movements as part of Russian-funded active measures to weaken and overthrow democracies, giving cover for imperialist invasions. Trump is to Alberta as Putin is to Donbas. All the talk about separatists is just a cover for invasion. The imperialist idea that Ukraine is not a real country but merely Russia's “backyard” is mirrored in the American imperialist theme that Canada is not a real country but is only a dependency of the United States.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ICE's nationwide detention system continues to expand under plans that would double its size while shielding it from meaningful accountability…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dr Boyce Watkins speaks about economic immaturity and what this actually means.

Dr. Laura Pettler, renowned forensic criminologist, author, and inventor recognized for her work in homicide investigation, crime scene staging, and reconstructionTopic: Alleged abduction of Savannah Guthrie's mother Dr. Tom Jones, PhD planetary scientist, pilot, veteran NASA astronaut who flew four space shuttle missions, and the author of "Space Shuttle Stories"Topic: "The race to the moon is back — NASA needs to get serious to beat the Chinese" (Fox News op ed) Congressman Mike Haridopolos, Republican representing Florida's 8th Congressional DistrictTopic: End of the Partial Government Shutdown Stephen Moore, "Joe Piscopo Show" Resident Scholar of Economics, Chairman of FreedomWorks Task Force on Economic Revival, former Trump economic adviser and the author of "The Trump Economic Miracle: And the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again"Topic: "Trump’s Fed pick Kevin Warsh means strong dollar, fewer bureaucrats, lower inflation" (Washington Times op ed) Joseph diGenova, former U.S. Attorney for the District of ColumbiaTopic: Alleged Charlie Kirk killer back in court; Other legal news of the day Matthew "Whiz" Buckley, decorated former U.S. Navy F/A-18 Hornet pilot, TOP GUN graduate, and now the founder of the No Fallen Heroes FoundationTopic: U.S. military shoots down Iranian drone approaching USS Abraham Lincoln; Peace negotiations with IranSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about the release of 3 million documents of the Epstein files, Dan Bongino's statements on his first podcast back, the numbers coming back from Iran and whether or not they're entirely truthful, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Vandy Crisps - https://vandycrisps.com/dave Use code "DAVE" for 25% offVanMan - https://vanman.shop/DAVEProlon - https://prolonlife.com/potpBetter Help - https://Betterhelp.com/problem for 10% off your first monthPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang and senior leaders from Investment Management Andrew Slimmon and Jitania Kandhari unpack new investment trends from supportive monetary and fiscal policy and shifting market leadership. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist. Today we're revisiting the 2026 global equity outlook with two senior leaders from Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Andrew Slimmon: I am Andrew Slimmon, Head of Applied Equity Team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Jitania Kandhari: And I'm Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, Portfolio Manager for Passport Strategies and Head of Macro and Thematic Research for Emerging Market Equities within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.It's Tuesday, February 3rd at 10 am in New York. So as investors are entering in 2026, after several years of very strong equity returns with policy support reaccelerating. As regular listeners have probably heard, Mike Wilson, who of course is CIO and Chief Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley – his view is that we ended a three-year rolling earnings recession in last April and entered a rolling recovery and a new bull market. Now, Andrew, in the spirit of debate, I know you have a different take on valuations and where we are at in the cycle. I'd love to hear how you're framing this for investment management clients. Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I mean, I guess I focus a little bit more on the behavioral cycle. And I think that from a behavioral cycle we're following a very consistent pattern, which is we had a bad bear market in 2022 that bottomed down 25 percent. And that provided a wonderful opportunity to invest. But early in a behavioral cycle, investors are very pessimistic. And that was really the story of [20]23 and really 2024, which were; investors, you know, were negative on equities. The ratios were all very negative and investors sold out of equities. And that's consistent with a early cycle. And then as you move into the third-fourth year, investors tend to get more optimistic about returns. Doesn't necessarily mean the market goes down. But what it does mean is the market tends to get more volatile and returns start to compress, and ultimately, bull markets die on euphoria. And so, I think it's late cycle, but it's not end of cycle. And that's my theme; is late cycle but not end of cycle.Serena Tang: And I think on that point, one very unusual feature of this environment is that you have both monetary and fiscal policy being supportive at the same time, which, of course, rarely happens outside of recession. So how do you see those dual policy forces shaping market behavior and which parts of the market tend to benefit? Andrew Slimmon: Well, that's exactly right. Look, the last time I checked, page one of the investment handbook says, ‘Don't fight the Fed.' And so, you have monetary policy easing. And what we; remember what happened in 2021? The Fed raised rates and monetary policy was tightening. Equities do well when the Fed is easing, and that's one of the reasons why I think it's not end of cycle. And then you layer in fiscal policy with tax relief coming, it is a reason to be relatively optimistic on equities in 2026. But it doesn't mean there can't be bumps along the way – and I think a higher level of optimism as we're seeing today is a result of that. But I think you stick with those more procyclical areas: Finance, Industrials, Technology, and then you move down the cap curve a little bit. I think those are the winning trades. They really started to come to the fore in the second half of last year, and I think that will continue into 2026. Serena Tang: Right. And we've definitely seen some bumps recently, but I think on your point around yields. So, Jitania, I think that policy backdrop really ties directly to your idea of the age of capped real rates. In very simple terms, can you explain what that means and what's behind that view? Jitania Kandhari: Sure. When I say age of real rates being capped, I mean like the structural template within which I'm operating, and real rates here are defined by the 10-year on the Treasury yield adjusted for CPI.Firstly, I'd say there was too much linear thinking in markets post Liberation Day. That tariffs equals inflation equals higher rates. Now, tariff impacts, as we have seen, can be offset in several ways, and economic relationships are rarely linear.So, inflation may not go up to the extent market is expecting. So that supports the case for capped rates. And the real constraint is the debt arithmetic, right? So, if you look at the history of public debt in the U.S., whenever there was a surge in public debt during the Civil War, two World Wars, Global Financial Crisis, even during COVID. In all these periods, when debt spiked, real rates have remained negative.So, there can be short term swings in rates, but I believe that markets not necessarily central banks will even enforce that cap. Serena Tang: You've described this moment, as the great broadening of 2026. What's driving this and what do you think is happening now after years of very narrow concentration? Jitania Kandhari: Yes. I think like if last decade was about concentration, now it's going to be about breadth. And if you look at where the concentration was, it was in the [Mag] 7, in the AI trade. We are beginning to see some cracks in the consensus where adoption is happening, but monetization is lagging. But clearly the next phase of value creation could happen from just the model building to the application layer, as you guys have also talked about – from enablers to adopters.The other thing we are seeing is two AI ecosystems evolve globally. The high cost cutting edge U.S. innovation engine and the lower cost efficiency driven Chinese model, each of them have their own supply chain beneficiaries. And as AI is moving into physical world, you're going to see more opportunities. And then secondly, I think there are limitations on this tariff policies globally; and tariff fears to me remain more of an illusion than a reality because U.S. needs to import a lot of intermediate goods And then lastly, I see domestic cycles inflecting upwards in many other pockets of the world. And you add all this up; the message is clear that leadership is broadening and portfolio should broaden too. Serena Tang: And I want to sort of stay on this topic of broadening. So, Andrew, I think, you've also highlighted, you know, this market broadening, especially beyond the large cap leaders, even as AI investment continues, I think, as you touched on earlier. So why does that matter for equity leadership in 2026? And can you talk about the impact of this broadening on valuations in general? Andrew Slimmon: Sure. So I think, you know, I've been around a long time and I remember when the internet first rolled out, the Mosaic browser was introduced in 1993. And the first thing the stock market tried to do is appoint winners – of who was going to win the internet, you know, search race. And it was Ask Jeeves and it was Yahoo and it was Netscape. Well, none of those were the winners. We just don't know who's ultimately going to be the tech winner. I think it's much safer to know that just like the internet, AI is a technology productivity enhancing tool, and companies are going to embrace AI just like they embraced the internet. And the reason the stock market doubled between 1997 and the dotcom peak was that productivity margins went up for a lot of companies in a lot of industries as they embraced the internet. So, to me, a broadening out and looking at lower valuations, it is in many ways safer than saying this is the technology winner, and this is technology loser. I think it's all many different industries are going to embrace and benefit from what's going on with AI. Serena Tang: You don't want to know where I was in 1993. And I don't recognize most of those names. Andrew Slimmon: Sorry. I was 14! Serena Tang: [Laughs] Ok. Investors often hear two competing messages now. Ignore the macro and buy great companies or let the big picture drive everything. How do you balance top-down signals with bottom-up fundamentals in your investment process? Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I think you have to employ both, and I hear that all the time; especially I hear, you know, my competitors, ‘Oh, I just focus on my stock picks, my bottom up.' But, you know, look statistically, two-thirds of a manager's relative performance comes from macro. You know, how did growth do? How did value do? All those types of things that have nothing to do with what stock picks... And likewise, much of a return of an individual stock has to do with things beyond just what's happening fundamentally. But some of it comes from what's happening at the company level. So, I think to be a great investor, you have to be aware of the macro. The Fed cutting rates this year is a very powerful tool, and if you don't understand the amplifications of that as per what types of stocks work, because you're so focused on the micro, I think that's a mistake. Likewise, you have to know what's going on in your company [be]cause one third of term does come from actual stock selection. So, I'm a big believer in marrying a top down and a bottom up and try to capture the two thirds and the one third.Serena Tang: Since that 2022 bear market low that you talked about earlier. I mean, your framework really favored growth and value over defensives. But I think more recently you've increased your non-U.S. exposure. What changed in your top-down signals and bottom-up data to make global opportunities more compelling now? Is it the narrative of the end of U.S. exceptionalism or something else? Andrew Slimmon: No, I really think it's actually something else, which is we have picked up signals from other parts of the world, Europe and Japan. That are different signals than we saw really for the last decade, which is namely that pro-cyclical stocks started to work. Value stocks started to work in the first half of 2025. And you look at the history of when that happens, usually value doesn't work for a year and peter out. So that's been a huge change where I would say, a safer orientation has shown the relative leadership, and we have to be – recognize that. So, in our global strategies, we've been heavily weighted towards, the U.S. orientation because we didn't see really a cyclical bias outside. And now that's changing and that has caused us to increase the allocation to non-U.S. exposure. It's a longwinded way of saying, look, I think what the story of last year was the U.S. did just fine. But there were parts of the world that did better and I think that will continue in 2026. Serena Tang: Andrew, Jitania thank you so much for taking the time to talk. Andrew Slimmon: Great speaking with you, Serena. Jitania Kandhari: Thanks for having us on the show. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Is Trump Rebuilding the Confederacy — Starting With the Slave Patrols?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As more and more damning details emerge from the Epstein files, Trump's strategy to undermine our democratic elections- by means legal and illegal- are ramping up.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ryan's site: RyanVeli.comShort guest bioRyan Veli is a returning researcher and deep-dive analyst known for connecting dots across AI, surveillance systems, and the bigger geopolitical chessboard. He's often described as a highly intuitive teacher with experience in analysis, risk assessment, and systems thinking—focused on practical strategy, sovereignty, and how communities can adapt in a rapidly shifting world.Episode description (YouTube / Rumble / Spreaker-ready)Today at 11:15 AM Eastern I'm joined by returning guest Ryan Veli for a deep dive into the AI threat, the economist/technocrat takeover, and the way geopolitics + “managed” current events may be steering the public into a new control architecture.We're getting into:What “AI governance” really means (and who benefits)Economics as a control system: incentives, scarcity narratives, and engineered dependencyGeopolitics as theater vs. geopolitics as strategySurveillance, censorship, and the normalization of complianceWhat people can do right now to stay grounded, sovereign, and informedGuest links:Ryan: RyanVeli.comHashtags (copy/paste)#TypicalSkepticPodcast #RyanVeli #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Technocracy #Geopolitics #CurrentEvents #ConspiracyResearch #DeepState #Surveillance #Censorship #DigitalID #SocialCredit #EconomicReset #CentralBanking #CBDC #InformationWar #PsychologicalWarfare #Propaganda #Sovereignty #SystemsThinking #RiskAssessment #FutureOfHumanity #TruthSeeker5197Tags (YouTube tags field)Ryan Veli, Typical Skeptic Podcast, AI threat, technocracy, geopolitics, economist takeover, current events analysis, deep state, surveillance state, censorship, digital ID, social credit system, CBDC, central banking, fourth industrial revolution, information war, psyop, propaganda, sovereignty, alternative mediaTypical Skeptic Podcast Links and Affiliates:Support the Mission:

Economics power duo Jane Foley and Christian Lawrence return to discuss the first 12 months of the Trump administration and the 2026 outlook for economies in the US and Europe. As always, the conversation is far-reaching, touching on:  The AI boom and its impact on business operations and economic growth. Inflation and the legacy of higher food, housing, and healthcare prices. Interest rates, currencies, and the threats to an independent Federal Reserve. The waning predictive power of consumer confidence surveys. The incomplete and lasting impact of tariffs and Trump's challenge to the geopolitical order. The impact of immigration policies on population growth and economic activity. Have a question, qualm, or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Solar Beats Coal in Texas, Nuclear Returns in NY & the Grid Faces a Load Crisis The League Episode #41 – Show Notes Episode Summary In this episode of The League, we break down the most consequential headlines shaping the energy transition from massive shifts in generation mix in Texas to policy moves in New York, and critical grid reforms at FERC that signal where the market is headed next. Key Takeaways & Analysis 1️⃣ 2025: Solar's Short-Term Downturn, Long-Term Bull Narrative Intact 2️⃣ Solar Has Surpassed Coal in Texas (ERCOT) 3️⃣ New York Aims for 8 GW of New Nuclear 4️⃣ FERC Directs PJM to Reform Interconnection + Large Load Tariffs   Host Bio: Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy, solar developer and consulting firm, and a strategic advisor to multiple cleantech startups. Over his career, Benoy has developed over 100 MWs of solar projects across the U.S., helped launch the first residential solar tax equity funds at Tesla, and brokered $45 million in Renewable Energy Credits (“REC”) transactions. Prior to founding Reneu Energy, Benoy was the Environmental Commodities Trader in Tesla's Project Finance Group, where he managed one of the largest environmental commodities portfolios. He originated REC trades and co-developed a monetization and hedging strategy with senior leadership to enter the East Coast market.  As Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners, Benoy crafted project finance solutions for commercial-scale solar portfolios. His role at Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund with 125 MWs of U.S. renewable assets, involved evaluating investment opportunities and maximizing returns. He also played a key role in the sale of the firm's renewable portfolio.  Earlier in his career, Benoy worked in Energy Structured Finance at Deloitte & Touche and Financial Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, following an internship on the trading floor at D.E. Shaw & Co., a multi billion dollar hedge fund. Benoy holds an MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from NYU Stern, where he was an Alumni Scholar. Connect with Benoy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benoythanjan/ Learn more: https://reneuenergy.com https://www.solarmaverickpodcast.com   Host Bio: David Magid David Magid is a seasoned renewable energy executive with deep expertise in solar development, financing, and operations. He has worked across the clean energy value chain, leading teams that deliver distributed generation and community solar projects. David is widely recognized for his strategic insights on interconnection, market economics, and policy trends shaping the U.S. solar industry. Connect with David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmagid/  If you have any questions or comments, you can email us at info@reneuenergy.com.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [CB] are trying to fight back, Trump continues to counter them by using tariffs. They will never learn. Blue states are feeling the economic pain, they are following the globalist plan and they will fail. Trump is changing the economic calculations. Inflation is below 1%. Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to restructure the Fed. The [DS] is panicking. They tried to trap Trump in the Epstein files, that did not work, the other part of the plan is to muddy the waters but this also failed. Trump is now preparing for mass round ups across the country. DHS is purchasing warehouses to hold the illegals. Trump is leading the [DS] down the path of no return. The insurrection is coming and Trump is preparing the counterinsurgency.   Economy   through this very same certification process. If, for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am going to charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all Aircraft sold into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/2016988052317409756?s=20   like he did in my First Term. I am confident that Brett has the expertise to QUICKLY fix the long history of issues at the BLS on behalf of the American People. Brett Matsumoto is a Brilliant, Reputable, and Trusted Economist who will restore GREATNESS to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Congratulations Brett! https://twitter.com/USTradeRep/status/2017747044350280104?s=20      extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance. Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report’s recommendations. Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve’s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board’s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia. In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board’s operations, personnel, and financial performance. Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council. Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director. I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP Warsh has compared Bitcoin favorably to gold as a “sustainable store of value,” indicating a positive view of gold’s role in the financial system.  However, his nomination led to sharp declines in gold and silver prices (e.g., silver fell up to 26% in one day), as markets interpreted him as an inflation hawk who might pursue tighter monetary policy, reducing the appeal of precious metals as inflation hedges.  This reaction stemmed from fears of less dovish Fed actions, which had previously driven gold’s rally amid uncertainty over Fed independence.  Warsh’s broader hawkish stance on inflation aligns with “hard money” principles that could indirectly support gold, but his emphasis on shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and normalizing policy suggests he prioritizes institutional reform over promoting gold as a standard. Is Kevin Warsh Pro-Sound Money?Yes, Warsh is a strong advocate for sound money principles, emphasizing disciplined, anti-inflationary monetary policy. He views inflation as a “monetary phenomenon” and “a choice” driven by excessive government printing and spending.  As a former Fed Governor, he was often the most hawkish voice, opposing aggressive rate cuts during crises due to inflation risks.  He criticizes the Fed’s “mission creep,” oversized balance sheet, and reliance on quantitative easing (QE), arguing these enable fiscal irresponsibility and distort markets. Warsh calls for “regime change” at the Fed, shifting away from Keynesian models toward rules-based policy that incorporates money supply considerations and reduces interventionism. He stresses credibility, clear rules, and accountability to maintain sound money.   In a 2025 Hoover Institution paper, he advocated scrutinizing monetary policy under a framework that could include constitutional measures for prosperity and idea diffusion. Warsh has been vocal against Powell’s leadership, echoing Trump’s frustrations with high interest rates and calling for “regime change” at the Fed. He has moderated his hawkish stance to support lower rates, arguing AI-driven productivity allows growth without inflation. Credibility and Market Reassurance: Warsh is seen as a “traditional” pick with Fed experience, reassuring investors amid fears of a loyalist appointment that could undermine independence. Trump highlighted Warsh’s ability to deliver lower rates and growth, though some economists note Warsh’s independence could lead to tensions if he prioritizes data over demands. Analysts suggest the pick balances Trump’s desire for cuts with a credible figure. Political/Rights https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/2017774819823984722?s=20 Trump Administration Begins Suing Illegal Migrants Who Have Not Self-Deported The Trump administration has begun suing individual illegal migrants for ignoring removal orders and refusing to self-deport back to their home countries, a report says. The administration has filed suit against an illegal migrant living in Virginia, and is seeking $941,114 plus interest, alleging that Marta Alicia Ramirez Veliz has remained in the country despite being told her request for admittance was rejected by a Justice Department appeals panel in 2022, Politico reported. The filing notes that Veliz has refused to pay a $998 per-day fine for the 943 days since she was told to return to her home country, and reveals that Immigration and Customs Enforcement sent her an official notice of her total fine in April. The lawsuit describes Veliz as “an individual and noncitizen residing in Chesterfield County, Virginia,” and does not identify her nationality. source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017404446230323358?s=20 BREAKING: Disturbing photos in the Epstein files appear to show Prince Andrew on all fours over a woman lying on the ground. https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/2017792445979791448?s=20   for everyone, or is connected through some opaque web of professional and personal ties. A supposedly random figure from the squalor of Uganda rises all the way to mayor of New York, only for it to later emerge that his mother is deeply embedded in elite circles. The same pattern shows up again and again. James Comey's daughter just happened to be a lead federal prosecutor on the Epstein case. The judge who presided over the trial of Hillary Clinton's lawyer, the one who helped seed the Russiagate hoax, is married to Lisa Page's lawyer. Page, of course, was involved with Peter Strzok, who is one of the central figures in that same hoax. And to complete the circle, Merrick Garland officiated their wedding. None of this requires conspiracy theories. It requires only acknowledging how small, closed, and self-protecting these elite worlds are. Fix elite incestuousness, and a lot of other problems will disappear on their own. https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017734119334232544?s=20 https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017474860700877105?s=20   https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/2017762585878069630?s=20 https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/2017694490614763591?s=20   written from Nikolic's perspective. At the time, Nikolic was Gates's top scientific investment advisor. The emails suggest Gates was firing Nikolic in response to marital problems with Melinda. In June 2013, Nikolic emailed Gates and asked if he wanted to go to the “legendary Crazy Horse in Paris” an erotic show, while they were in France. Gates declined, saying he would be too tired and didn't want to take the risk, adding that he might have done it when he was younger. On July 1, 2013, Gates emailed Nikolic: “We should meet on Wednesday to discuss your job. There is going to have to be a transition. I feel very bad about it but I don’t see a way around it.” Nikolic shared these emails with Epstein. Epstein later commented on the Paris erotic show email, writing: “This is pretty bad and might have been the cause of her bad mail in paris.”—apparently referring to Melinda. Nikolic appeared unhappy about being fired while potentially being used as a scapegoat, and he sought greater financial compensation as he prepared to leave and launch his own investment fund. In these emails, Epstein—writing as Nikolic—references alleged knowledge of Gates's extramarital affairs, STDs allegedly contracted from Russian women, and drug use as justification for why Nikolic deserved more money. Taken together, it appears Jeffrey Epstein was drafting or shaping a message for Boris Nikolic that effectively functioned as blackmail, pressuring Bill Gates for financial compensation. It remains unclear whether Nikolic ultimately sent these messages to Gates. However, later emails suggest Gates helped Nikolic launch his next investment fund and maintained a working relationship with him afterward. Epstein later listed Nikolic as a backup executor of his will, indicating the two were close confidants. https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/2017769194159210784?s=20 Billionaire Reid Hoffman, Who Bankrolled the E. Jean Carroll Lawsuit Against Trump, Is Featured Extensively in the New Epstein Files, Visiting Zorro Ranch and Pedophile Island  Hoffman went to the Island. A man who used his fortune to bankroll a lawsuit against President Donald J. Trump is now featured extensively in the new DOJ-released Jeffrey Epstein documents. The three and a half million documents from the latest – and apparently last – have been released by the DOJ following the approval of the House Resolution 4405, the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Documents from this massive release show the close ties between LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and the late pedophile. The pair ‘discusses visits to Epstein's infamous private island, his New Mexico ranch, and his New York apartment'. The New York Post reported: “'Reid will spend the night at 71st', according to one email from Hoffman's team included in the latest Justice Department dump of Epstein files, in reference to his Upper East Side townhouse.”   A 2014 memo states that Epstein hosted will have (venture capitalist) Joi Ito and Reid Hoffman on the infamous Zorro Ranch for a weekend. “An email Epstein penned to his assistant Saida Sapieva under the heading ‘Trip to the Island' states: ‘Reid will take a Virgin America Flight from SFO to Fort Lauderdale, departing at 8:20 am, landing at 4:40 pm'. In 2023, Hoffman visited to Epstein's former Caribbean private island, Little St. James, also known as ‘pedophile island', The Post previously reported.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2017106848311366064?s=20 https://twitter.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/2017789344103145647?s=20   https://twitter.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/2017772724093849926?s=20     https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2017930408650772495?s=20 https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/2017329765863039432?s=20       Israel had Trump by the balls so much that… Epstein was arrested? Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested? Jean Luc Brunel was arrested? Les Wexner stepped down? NXIVM sex cult ended? And now we're getting those files? These people don't think very hard https://twitter.com/JD_Cashless/status/2017349780922408973?s=20 https://twitter.com/TaraBunner2/status/2017619821634977889?s=20 https://twitter.com/Jordan_Sather_/status/2017399510809645263?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017789280693735748?s=20 politically. “I didn't see it myself but I was told by some very important people that not only does it absolve me, it's the opposite of what people were hoping – you know, the radical left. Wolff, who's a 3rd rate writer, was conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to hurt me politically or otherwise…” Don't fall for all the clickbait doomers pushing the anti-Trump narratives. It's all bullshit. Lots of people not looking good though after today's release. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. To muddy the waters is an idiom that means to make a situation, issue, or discussion more confusing, unclear, or complicated—often deliberately. For example: “The politician’s vague statements only muddied the waters during the debate.” It originates from the idea of stirring up mud in water, making it murky and hard to see through. DOGE Geopolitical War/Peace Iran Hits Back At EU: Designates European Armies As ‘Terrorist Entities’ Iran is saying two can play at the West’s game: on Friday the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council blasted the EU’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization,” warning that Europe’s own militaries would now be viewed through the same lens. “The European Union certainly knows that… the armies of countries that have participated in the European Union’s recent resolution against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are considered terrorist entities,” Ali Larijani wrote in a post on X. He added bluntly: “Therefore, the consequences of that shall be borne by the European countries that undertook such an action.” However, there’s probably nothing in the way of European military assets for the Islamic Republic to sanction, so this ‘action’ by Tehran will remain largely symbolic. Iran does have assets held in various places of Europe though. EU foreign ministers agreed on Thursday to formally classify the IRGC as a “terrorist organization” and urged member states to implement the designation without delay – after a few longtime holdouts flipped. source: zerohedge.com [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/rhodeislander/status/2017361344018739231?s=20 https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2017331445195211254?s=20   at Place of Worship COUNT 2: 18 U.S.C. § 248(a) (b), § §2(a) – FACE Act: Injure, Intimidate, and Interfere with Exercise of Right of Religious Freedom at a Place of Worship. Full indictment in replies. https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2017755569097003394?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2017426372860190991?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2017426372860190991%7Ctwgr%5Efafd5c6b893c0c4815868b0fd8490482712f780e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Ft%2Fassets%2Fhtml%2Ftweet-5.html2017426372860190991 Maxine Waters Incites Violent Leftist Rioters in Los Angeles – Threatens ICE, “We're Going to Fight You Every Inch of the Way” (VIDEOS) Far-left Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) was in Los Angeles on Friday, inciting her radical left followers to riot against law enforcement before several were arrested.  Rioters were seen hurling objects at shielded federal agents who pushed back with pepper balls and nonlethal munitions. Via ABC 7: Anti-ICE Rioters Clash with Federal Agents and Local Police Outside Los Angeles ICE Facility Eventually, the rioters moved a dumpster toward the entrance of the ICE detention facility and set it ablaze. Over 100 Los Angeles Police officers reportedly responded in riot gear to quell the violence. Multiple videos circulating on social media show Maxine Waters at the front lines of the riot as leftists were told to disperse for surrounding the federal building, trespassing on federal property, and later assaulting federal officers. After pepper spray was deployed, Waters returned to the front of the riot with a mask and continued leading the insurrection. Waters was seen pulling up to the scene early in the day in a black SUV before stepping out to rally her troops, flailing her arms and leading chants of “ICE Out of LA.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/DOGEai_tx/status/2017736355665641700?s=20   Martinez's gang alliance pitch isn't just reckless; it's a calculated distraction from ICE's indiscriminate sweeps that tear families apart over paperwork. Federal law requires deportation for specific crimes, yet bureaucrats weaponize broad mandates to meet quotas. The solution? Enforce existing laws precisely, stop manufacturing crises, and end the performative politics that put both officers and communities at risk. President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2017769322723082564?s=20   constitutional dike, It is so ORDERED” – “Feb. 31” doesn’t exist – LinkedIn shows he liked a TDS post about ICE today – Includes a photo of the kid in the order – Unprofessionally antagonistic language WTF?! This is a JUDGE?! @ElonMusk and @NayibBukele were right all along. We can’t have a saved republic until we mass impeach the courts. H/t @BillMelugin_ https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2017574838143959310?s=20 https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2017636699157811696?s=20       one of the safest cities in America – Likewise, numerous other once very dangerous cities! Republicans, don't let these Crooked Democrats, who are stealing Billions of Dollars from Minnesota, and other Cities and States from all over the Country, push you around. They are using this aggressive protest SCAM to obfuscate, camouflage, and hide their CRIMINAL ACTS of theft and insurrection. They should all be in jail. I was elected on Strong Borders, and Law and Order, among many other things. Thank you to Secretary Kristi Noem. Remember, ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP     Federal Government Property. There will be no spitting in the faces of our Officers, there will be no punching or kicking the headlights of our cars, and there will be no rock or brick throwing at our vehicles, or at our Patriot Warriors. If there is, those people will suffer an equal, or more, consequence. In the meantime, by copy of this Statement, I am informing Local Governments, as I did in Los Angeles when they were rioting at the end of the Biden Term, that you must protect your own State and Local Property. In addition, it is your obligation to also protect our Federal Property, Buildings, Parks, and everything else. We are there to protect Federal Property, only as a back up, in that it is Local and State Responsibility to do so. Last night in Eugene, Oregon, these criminals broke into a Federal Building, and did great damage, also scaring and harassing the hardworking employees. Local Police did nothing in order to stop it. We will not let that happen anymore! If Local Governments are unable to handle the Insurrectionists, Agitators, and Anarchists, we will immediately go to the location where such help is requested, and take care of the situation very easily and methodically, just as we did the Los Angeles Riots one year ago, where the Police Chief said that, “We couldn't have done it without the help of the Federal Government.” Therefore, to all complaining Local Governments, Governors, and Mayors, let us know when you are ready, and we will be there — But, before we do so, you must use the word, “PLEASE.” Remember that I stated, in the strongest of language, to BEWARE — ICE, Border Patrol or, if necessary, our Military, will be extremely powerful and tough in the protection of our Federal Property. We will not allow our Courthouses, Federal Buildings, or anything else under our protection, to be damaged in any way, shape, or form. I was elected on a Policy of Border Control (which has now been perfected!), National Security, and LAW AND ORDER — That's what America wants, and that's what America is getting! Thank you for your attention to this matter.   PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP he will use DHS/ICE and, if necessary, the US MIL to protect federal property. It sounds like Trump knows something is coming. It sounds like the Dems want DHS/ICE to get caught up in policing these riots, hoping more of their deranged followers take it too far and get shot. Trump is instead going to hold and force local Democrat politicians to police their own riots, or agree to work with him. And if the Dems choose to not police these riots, they will force Trump to use the US MIL to suppress the chaos.  https://twitter.com/unseen1_unseen/status/2017334056292143173?s=20 https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/2017585812599087241?s=20   EXCLUSIVE: Atlanta Field Office Special Agent in Charge Allegedly Removed For Slow-Walking Election Fraud Investigation  Reports are emerging on social media that Paul Brown, the FBI Special Agent in Charge at the Atlanta Field Office, was “forced out of that job earlier this month,” according to MSNOW's Ken Dilanian. According to MSNOW, Brown “was forced out this month after questioning the Justice Department's renewed push to probe Fulton County's role in the 2020 election” after “expressing concern” about “unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud” in Fulton County. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017632517596045581?s=20      of evidence that the judge authorized us to collect. And what we're gonna do next is go through the voluminous amounts of information collected and continue our investigation. At this point there's not much more I can say publicly because we have to go through a lot more material. But it was predicated on a finding of probable cause by a judge in Georgia.” Time for people to go to jail! We all watched it stolen in real time, and we're all still pissed off about it! https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2017201516768026738?s=20  the election safe, and she's done a very good job. And as you know, they got into the votes. You've got a signed judges order in Georgia and you're gonna see some interesting things happening.” We've waited a long time for this. Let's get it. https://twitter.com/JoeLang51440671/status/2017668286196932654?s=20 https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2017631484908024035?s=20     (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Author Daniel Coyle talks with EconTalk's Russ Roberts on the art of flourishing: why it's a natural phenomenon rather than mechanical; how taking life's "yellow doors"--or detours from a straight, expected path--is often the key to a flourishing life; and why true flourishing can only occur in the context of relationships. They also discuss how the basic principles of flourishing have empowered people--from men trapped in a Chilean mine to senior citizens reliving their youth--to achieve remarkable things. Finally, they offer an exercise you can do for recognizing the ways that others have helped us to thrive.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed could move markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast: The implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair. It's Monday, February 2nd at 10 am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last Friday, President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chair of the Fed. The prevailing narrative around Warsh is fairly straightforward: he's seen as more hawkish on the size of the Fed's balance sheet, potentially more flexible on interest rates, and less comfortable with open-ended liquidity support than the current leadership. That characterization is fair, but it doesn't answer the more important question—why pick Warsh now, and what problem is this nomination trying to solve?In my view, the answer starts with markets, not politics. Over the past several months, we've witnessed parabolic moves in precious metals alongside persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar. While this administration has been very clear that a weaker dollar is not inherently a bad thing—especially as part of a broader economic rebalancing strategy—there's an important distinction between a controlled decline and a disorderly one.To understand why this matters so much, you need to zoom out. The administration is attempting to rebalance the U.S. economy across three dimensions simultaneously, all with the same ultimate goal—growing out of an enormous debt burden that's been building for more than two decades. At this point, simply cutting spending isn't realistic, economically or politically. Nominal growth is the only viable path forward.The current strategy is more supply side driven. It focuses on rebalancing trade through tariffs and a weaker dollar, shifting the economy away from over-consumption and toward investment, and addressing inequality through immigration enforcement and deregulation. The goal is to let companies—not the government—make capital allocation decisions, while boosting income through wages rather than entitlements. If it works, the result should be higher nominal growth with a healthier mix of real growth driven by productivity.Markets, to some extent, have already started to price this in. Since last spring, cyclical stocks have outperformed, market breadth has improved, and leadership has begun to rotate away from the mega-cap names that dominated the last cycle. Small and mid-cap stocks are working again too. That's exactly what you'd expect in the middle stages of a ‘hotter but shorter' expansion, my core view. At the same time, the surge in gold tells us something else is going on. Precious metals don't move like that unless investors are questioning the endgame.That's where Kevin Warsh comes in. His nomination appears designed to restore credibility around the balance sheet and slow the momentum of that skepticism. Based on Friday's price action, it worked. Gold and silver sold off sharply, the dollar strengthened modestly, and equities and rates stayed relatively stable. That combination buys time—and time is exactly what this strategy needs to work.One of the best ways to track whether markets are buying into this story is by watching the ratio of the S&P 500 to gold. It's a simple but powerful proxy for confidence in productive growth. The recent collapse was driven mostly by gold rising—and Friday's sharp reversal was mainly gold prices falling, one of the largest on record.That doesn't mean skepticism has been eliminated. Instead, it tells me the administration is paying attention and understands they need to restore confidence. If the ratio continues to recover, it will likely come first through lower gold prices and tighter liquidity expectations, and later through stronger earnings growth driven by productivity gains. That could mean near term risk for other risk assets, including equities. Bottom line, the current ‘run it hot' approach has a better chance of delivering sustainable growth than prior policy mixes—but it won't be smooth, and confidence will ebb and flow along the way. Watching how markets respond, especially through signals like gold, the dollar, and capital spending trends, will tell us whether this strategy ultimately succeeds. My view is that it's the best approach which keeps me bullish on 2026 even if the near term is more rocky.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The Manchurian Billionaire: How Trump's Rise Mirrors Every Classic Intelligence Takeover...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A closer look at the Epstein docs and the people - including Trumps nominee for Fed Chair - is mind-boggling. Are millions to complacent on the upcoming election plot? Mystery Alert. Explosive whistleblower claim against Tulsi Gabbard ‘locked in safe' by Trump - Why? Earthquake! Democrat Flips Deep-Red Texas State Senate Seat by 17 points. Pathetic Alert! Why is Trump really closing the Kennedy Center? Hint: He failed. Also John Parker of Minnesota's Progressive AM 950 Radio reports from Minneapolis. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

No, this isn't a Bavarian dish.  But our colleague Martin Wurm joins the Inside Economics team to consider Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board.  The group dissects Warsh's writings and speeches to glean how he might change the way the Fed operates monetary and regulatory policy, and whether he will be able to preserve some semblance of Fed independence.  There is also the stats game and listener question – please keep them coming.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomInflation drops to 1.2%How Socialism Destroyed VenezuelaUS Wealth Jumps $12 TrillionMurders fall to 125-year lowEuropean Industry ImplodingRead the article "European Industry Imploding" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletProfstonge WeeklyWeekly articles on economics and freedom and a monthly investment Watch ListDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

What if the real driver of digital disruption isn't technology, but unit economics? In this episode of Technovation, Peter High speaks with Dan Gill, Chief Product Officer of Carvana, about how disciplined unit economics power one of the most ambitious e-commerce models in retail. Rather than leading with engineering for its own sake, Carvana focuses relentlessly on eliminating friction, capturing profit pools, and reinvesting those economics back into customer value. Key highlights from the episode: Vertical integration and competitive advantage Deterministic, self-service digital experiences Proprietary platforms vs. off-the-shelf tools AI-human collaboration at scale

Today on our show:ChatGPT's 4% Fee Confirms Marketplace EconomicsAmerican Eagle to Close Quiet Logistics BusinessUPS Releases 4Q 2025 Earnings and Provides 2026 GuidanceMeta Earnings in Superintelligence We Trust- and finally, The Investor Minute, which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.Today's episode is sponsored by Rithum.https://www.rmwcommerce.com/ecommerce-podcast-watsonweekly

A key insight social anthropologist Mukulika Banerjee had while observing electoral behavior in a Bengali village was that -- at least in the India of that moment -- elections were sacred. This was not a religious epiphany but a cultural one; at the center was not a figure, religious or political, but an ideal - democracy. Banerjee has explored her insights in the years since in a variety or formats, but academic and popular, ranging from her written work like 2021's Cultivating Democracy: Politics and citizenship in agrarian India or 2014's Why India Votes? to a 2009 radio documentary for the BBC specifically titled "Sacred Elections." In this Social Science Bites podcast, the professor at the London School of Economics reviews much of the underlying scholarship behind those works, then explores with host David Edmonds the de-sanctification of democracy in both India and the Global North in the years since. "I think what has happened ... in the US and in the UK," she explains, "is a complacency that regardless of whether you do your little bit, whether it is literally just turning up to vote or learning to organize and be informed politically, is going to happen regardless of whether you do it or not. And because of this complacency, is precisely why these degenerations of democracy have happened." Banerjee is the founding series editor of Routledge's Exploring the Political in South Asia and is also working on a grant from the Indo-European Networking Programme in the Social Sciences on Explanations of Electoral Change in Urban and Rural India. This year, courtesy of a British Academy-Leverhulme Senior Fellowship, she is on a research sabbatical studying the nexus of democracy and taxation.  

The MAGA movement plans to disenfranchise married women from their right to vote as the midterm elections approach. Voter suppression is the specialty of the GOP's manipulation of politics as part of a decades-long plot to prevent the will of the majority. Plus DJT attempts to game the system to take more of the tax-payers money as his tax fraud has been publicly exposed. For the Book Club, Thom reads from The Fight to Vote by Brennan Center president Michael Waldman.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In today's episode, we take a deep dive into the latest stats on China's surging investments in the Belt-and-Road Initiative countries. Energy investment is up, but we learn that this was both the 'greenest and dirtiest' year for BRI investments ever. Even as China's oil demand stagnates, China's SOEs and construction companies are doing brisk business investing in oil and gas, even as CATL and Jinko Solar find deals and opportunities in Latin America and Africa. Our guest, Christoph Nedopil-Wang, is the director of the Griffith Asia Institute and Professor of Economics. Christoph engages in research related to sustainable finance and business in Asia and the Pacific, and he is particularly interested in the role of China in Asia's sustainable development with extensive engagement in green finance, green energy transition, green metals, climate smart state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  He has numerous publications related to the topic of China's overseas finance and green finance in general, and in particular he is the lead author of the China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025, published by the Griffith Asia Institute in early January 2026, in collaboration with the Green Finance & Development Center (GFDC) of the Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF), in Fudan, China. [Editorial note: a young family member can occasionally be heard in the background.] Questions we address are: Is surging investment a surprise? And why is this happening just as China's domestic economy slows? Why is oil and gas investment surging when domestic demand is so soft? Is Chinese investment in minerals and minerals processing mainly a "scramble for resources" or is it a development opportunity for the recipient countries? Is Africa's growth of 300% a signficant trend change that could continue?  Deal size is up. What ever happened to "small is beautiful"? Expectations for 2026   Further reading: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/asiainsights/china-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-investment-report-2025-2/  

Are mining billionaires behind Trump's obsession with Greenland? Should Europe pursue "Anti-oligarchic Protectionism" to fight the likes of Trump and Putin and defend democracy?Plus- Phil Ittner with the latest from frozen Ukraine.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Funding white supremacy is a core, not incidental, function of the modern capitalist state in the U.S. It is also the title of economist Robert B. Williams' 2025 book, Funding White Supremacy: Federal Wealth Policies and the Modern Racial Wealth Gap.Bob and Steve share the fundamental position that capitalism doesn't just produce inequality by accident, it builds durable ladders for some and trapdoors for others. Wealth, not income, is the key instrument because it is power that reproduces itself across generations.Bob lays out the major policy mechanism of stealth wealth-building: how the federal government subsidizes asset accumulation through the tax code, especially via “tax expenditures” (deductions, exclusions, preferential treatment) that provide vast benefits to the wealthy.From an MMT perspective, the conversation underlines a crucial point: the state's problem is not “finding the money,” it's choosing who gets the public subsidy. A system that claims scarcity around public goods reliably mobilizes massive policy support for private asset appreciation and wealth compounding. In other words, benefits reward ownership and existing assets, not the people struggling to acquire them.Bob situates this historically, tracing the origins of the modern income and estate tax era to the early 20th century and argues that any progressive policy history coexisted with, and was intertwined with, overt white supremacist politics.Robert B. Williams is the Stedman Professor of Economics, Guilford College. Bob has taught economics and political economy for over 40 years. He has written three books, including Funding White Supremacy: Federal Wealth Policies and the Modern Racial Wealth Gap (Cambridge University Press, 2025).

So what we have here is an institution meant to continually channel the water that Śrī Nityānanda Prabhu, brought from the great ocean of mercy of Kṛṣṇa. We're kind of like civil engineers, right? Sometimes they cut channels like Mulholland; Los Angeles wouldn't be a name right now if Mulholland, a very expert engineer, hadn't figured out how to "steal" all the water from Northern California (you can tell where I'm from) and bring it down to Los Angeles to make the desert fertile. Economics, I learned from an economics book, is the science of managing scarce resources and thereafter the law of supply and demand; but we learn from the Śrī Caitanya-caritāmṛta that there is no scarce resource in the spiritual world. The more we channel the mercy of Nityānanda Prabhu to the world, the more the supply increases. That's a Haribol! That's a secret of success. Also, when we have an institution meant to distribute mercy, "the devil is in the details," but we can come out of the details by principles. And one of the principles that Śrī Nityānanda Prabhu exhibited and taught to the world is the principle of adoṣa-darśī. Everyone is envious in the material world—my brother gets a raise, and I think, "Darn"; somebody else leads a great kīrtana, it feels like ughh!! As Kṛṣṇa says in the Bhagavad-gītā, this is the lingering disease in the material world. Śrī Nityānanda Prabhu represents the uttama-adhikārī who sees beyond the faults of all living entities, which are cataloged by Śrīla Viśvanātha Cakravartī Ṭhākura in the Fourth Canto of the Śrīmad-Bhāgavatam in his commentary, where he says there are four kinds of people that are highly expert at finding faults, some are better at it than others. And there are four kinds of saintly persons who are expert at following finding the good qualities in others. The first fault-finder sees that there are good qualities and bad qualities and then he only sees the bad; second, he's more advanced, he sees the good and bad qualities so he brings up the bad quality to make sure everybody knows about it; the third doesn't even see any good qualities, just sees the bad; and the fourth is so expert that even in those that only have good qualities, he finds some fault. Conversely, in those who represent Lord Nityānanda to one degree or another, the first sees good and bad qualities but chooses to see the good; the second one sees good and bad and brings up the good quality; the third doesn't see the bad quality, just the good; and the fourth, even in a person who is sudurācāra, who has no good qualities factually, a person who is a representative of Lord Nityānanda finds a good quality. To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Add to your wisdom literature collection: https://iskconsv.com/book-store/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://www.bbtacademic.com/books/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://thefourquestionsbook.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Join us live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FanTheSpark/ Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sound-bhakti/id1132423868 For the latest videos, subscribe https://www.youtube.com/@FanTheSpark For the latest in SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/fan-the-spark ------------------------------------------------------------

Original Release Date: January 16, 2026Our Head of Research Product in Europe Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock break down the main themes for European stocks this year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Product here in Europe.Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist.Paul Walsh: Today, we are here to talk about the big debates for European equities moving into 2026.It's Friday, January the 16th at 8am in London.Marina, it's great to have you on Thoughts on the Market. I think we've got a fascinating year ahead of us, and there are plenty of big debates to be exploring here in Europe. But let's kick it off with the, sort of, obvious comparison to the U.S.How are you thinking about European equities versus the U.S. right now? When we cast our eyes back to last year, we had this surprising outperformance. Could that repeat?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, the biggest debate of all Paul, that's what you start with. So, actually it's not just last year. If you look since U.S. elections, I think it would surprise most people to know that if you compare in constant currency terms; so if you look in dollar terms or if you look in Euro terms, European equities have outperformed U.S. equities since US elections. I don't think that's something that a lot of people really think about as a fact.And something very interesting has happened at the start of this year. And let me set the scene before I tell you what that is.In the last 10 years, European equities have been in this constantly widening discount range versus the U.S. on valuation. So next one's P/E there's been, you know, we have tactical rallies from time to time; but in the last 10 years, they've always been tactical. But we're in this downward structural range where their discount just keeps going wider and wider and wider. And what's happened on December 31st is that for the first time in 10 years, European equities have broken the top of that discount range now consistently since December 31st. I've lost count of how many trading days that is. So about two weeks, we've broken the top of that discount range. And when you look at long-term history, that's happened a number of times before. And every time that happens, you start to go into an upward range.So, the discount is narrowing and narrowing; not in a straight line, in a range. But the discount narrows over time. The last couple of times that's happened, in the last 20 years, over time you narrow all the way to single digit discount rather than what we have right now in like-for-like terms of 23 percent.Paul Walsh: Yeah, so there's a significant discount. Now, obviously it's great that we are seeing increased inflows into European equities. So far this year, the performance at an index level has been pretty robust. We've just talked about the relative positioning of Europe versus the U.S.; and the perhaps not widely understood local currency outperformance of Europe versus the U.S. last year. But do you think this is a phenomenon that's sustainable? Or are we looking at, sort of, purely a Q1 phenomenon?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, it's a really good question and you make a good point on flows, which I forgot to mention. Which is that, last year in [Q1] we saw this really big diversification flow theme where investors were looking to reduce exposure in the U.S., add exposure to Europe – for a number of reasons that I won't go into.And we're seeing deja vu with that now, mostly on the – not really reducing that much in U.S., but more so, diversifying into Europe. And the feedback I get when speaking to investors is that the U.S. is so big, so concentrated and there's this trend of broadening in the U.S. that's happening; and that broadening is impacting Europe as well.Because if you're thinking about, ‘Okay, what do I invest in outside of seven stocks in the U.S.?' You're also thinking about, ‘Okay, but Europe has discounts and maybe I should look at those European companies as well.' That's exactly what's happening. So, diversification flows are sharply going up, in the last month or two in European equities coming into this year.And it's a very good question of whether this is just a [Q1] phenomenon. [Be]cause that's exactly what it was last year. I still struggle to see European equities outperforming the U.S. over the course of the full year because we're going to come into earnings now.We have much lower earnings growth at a headline level than the U.S. I have 4 percent earnings growth forecast. That's driven by some specific sectors. It's, you know, you have pockets of very high growth. But still at a headline level, we have 4 percent earnings growth on our base case. Consensus is too high in our view. And our U.S. equity strategists, they have 17 percent earnings growth, so we can't compete.Paul Walsh That's a very stark difference.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, we cannot compete with that. But what I will say is that historically when you've had these breakouts, you don't get out performance really. But what you get is a much narrower gap in performance. And I also think if you pick the right pockets within Europe, then you could; you can get out performance.Paul Walsh: So, something you and I talked about a lot in 2025, is the bull case for Europe. There are a number of themes and secular dynamics that could play out, frankly, to the benefits of Europe, and there are a number of them. I wondered if you could highlight the ones that you think are most important in terms of the bull case for Europe.Marina Zavolock: I think the most important one is AI adoption. We and our team, we have been able to quantify this. So, when we take our global AI mapping and we look at leading AI adopters in Europe, which is about a quarter of the index, they are showing very strong earnings and returns outperformance. Not just versus the European index, but versus their respective sectors. And versus their respective sectors, that gap of earnings outperformance is growing and becoming more meaningful every time that we update our own chart.To the point that I think at this rate, by the second half of this year, it's going to grow to a point that it's more difficult for investors to ignore. That group of stocks, first of all, they trade again at a big discount to U.S. equivalent – 27 percent discount. Also, if you see adoption broadening overall, and we start to go into the phase of the AI cycle where adopters are, you know, are being sought after and are seen as in the front line of beneficiaries of AI. It's important to remember Europe; the European index because we don't have a lot of enablers in our index. It is very skewed to AI adopters. And then we also have a lot of low hanging fruit given productivity demographic challenges that AI can help to address. So that's the biggest one.Paul Walsh: Understood.Marina Zavolock: And the one I've spent most time on. But let me quickly mention a few others. M&A, we're seeing it rising in Europe, almost as sharply as we're seeing in the U.S. Again, I think there's low hanging fruit there. We're seeing easing competition commission rules, which has been an ongoing thing, but you know, that comes after decade of not seeing that. We're seeing corporate re-leveraging off of lows. Both of these things are still very far from cycle peaks. And we're seeing structural drivers, which for example, savings and investment union, which is multifaceted. I won't get into it. But that could really present a bull case.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And that could include pensions reform across Europe, particularly in Germany, deeper capital…Marina Zavolock: We're starting to see it.Paul Walsh: And in Europe as well, yeah. And so just going back to the base case, what are you advocating to clients in terms of what do we buy here in Europe, given the backdrop that you've framed?Marina Zavolock: Within Europe, I get asked a lot whether investors should be investing in cyclicals or value. Last year value really worked, or quality – maybe they will return. I think it's not really about any of those things. I think, similar to prior years, what we're going to see is stock level dispersion continuing to rise. That's what we keep seeing every month, every quarter, every year – for the last couple of years, we're seeing dispersion rising.Again, we're still far from where we normally get to, when we get to cycle peaks. So, Europe is really about stock picking. And the best way that we have at Morgan Stanley to capture this alpha under the surface of the European index. And the growth that we have under the surface of the index, is our analyst top picks – which are showing fairly consistent outperformance, not just versus the European index, but also versus the S&P. And since inception of top picks in 2021, European top picks have outperformed the S&P free float market cap weighted by over 90 percentage points. And they've outperformed, the S&P – this is pre-trade – by 17 percentage points in the last year. And whatever period we slice, we're seeing out performance.As far as sectors, key sectors, Banks is at the very top of our model. It's the first sector that non-dedicated investors ask me about. I think the investment case there is very compelling. Defense, we really like structurally with the rearmament theme in Europe, but it's also helpful that we're in this seasonal phase where defense tends to really outperform between; and have outsized returns between January and April. And then we like the powering AI thematic, and we are getting a lot of incoming on the powering AI thematic in Europe. We upgraded utilities recently.Paul, maybe if I ask you a question, one sector that I've missed out on, in our data-driven sector model, is the semis. But you've worked a lot with our semi's team who are quite constructive. Can you tell us about the investment case there?Paul Walsh: Yeah, they're quite constructive, but I would say there's nuance within the context of the sector. I think what they really like is the semi cap space, which they think is really well underpinned by a robust, global outlook for wafer fab equipment spend, which we see growing double digits globally in both 2026 and 2027.And I think within that, in particular, the outlook for memory. You have something of a memory supercycle going on at the moment. And the outlook for memory is especially encouraging. And it's a market where we see it as being increasingly capacity constrained with an unusually long order book visibility today, driven really by AI inference. So strong thematic overlay there as well.And maybe I would highlight one other key area of growth longer term for the space, which is set to come from the proliferation of humanoid robots. That's a key theme for us in 2025. And of course, we'll continue to be so, in the years to come. And we are modeling a global Humanoids Semicon TAM of over $300 billion by 2045, with key pillars of opportunity for the semi names to be able to capitalize on. So, I think those are two areas where, in particular, the team have seen some great opportunities.Now bringing it back to the other side of the equation, Marina, which sectors would you be avoiding, within the context of your model?Marina Zavolock: There's a collection of sectors and they, for the most part, are the culprits for the low growth that we have in Europe. So simply avoiding these could be very helpful from a growth perspective, to add to that multiple expansion. These are at the bottom of our data driven, sector models. So, these are Autos, Chemicals, Luxury Transport, Food and Beverage.Most of these are old economy cyclicals. Many of these sectors have high China/old economy exposure – as well where we're not seeing really a demand pickup. And then lastly, a number of these sectors are facing ever rising China competition.Paul Walsh: And I think, when we weigh up the skew of your views according to your model, I think it brings it back to the original big debate around cyclicals versus defensives. And your conclusion that actually it's much more complicated than that.Marina, thanks for taking the time to talk.Marina Zavolock: Great to speak with you Paul.Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Andrew Sheets discusses key market metrics indicating that valuations should stay higher for longer, despite some investors' concerns.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about key signposts for stability – in a world that from day to day feels anything but.It's Friday, January 30th at 2pm in London.A core theme for us at Morgan Stanley Research is that easier fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy in 2026 will support more risk taking, corporate activity and animal spirits. Yes, valuations are high. But with so many forces blowing in the same stimulative direction across so many geographies, those valuations may stay higher for longer.We think that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, all lower interest rates more, or raise them less than markets expect. We think that fiscal policy will remain stimulative as governments in the United States, Germany, China, and Japan all spend more. And as I discussed on this program recently, regulation – a sleepy but essential part of this equation – is also aligning to support more risk taking.Of course, one concern with having so much stimulative sail out, so to speak, is that you lose control of the boat. As geopolitical headwinds swirl and the price of gold has risen a 100 percent in the last year, many investors are asking whether we're seeing too much of a shift in both government and fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy.Specifically, when I speak to investors, I think I can paraphrase these concerns as follows: Are we seeing expectations for future inflation rise sharply? Will we see more volatility in government debt? Has the valuation of the U.S. dollar deviated dramatically from fair value? And are credit markets showing early signs of stress?Notably, so far, the answer to all of these questions based on market pricing is no. The market's expectation for CPI inflation over the next decade is about 2.4 percent. Similar actually to what we saw in 2024, 2023. Expected volatility for U.S. interest rates over the next year is, well, lower than where it was on January 1st. The U.S. dollar, despite a lot of recent headlines, is trading roughly in line with its fair value, based on purchasing power based on data from Bloomberg. And the credit markets long seen as important leading indicators of risk, well, across a lot of different regions, they've been very well behaved, with spreads still historically tight.Uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy, big moves in Japanese interest rates and even larger moves in gold have all contributed to investor concerns around the potential instability of the macro backdrop. It's understandable, but for now we think that a number of key market-based measures of the stability are still holding.While that's the case, we think that a positive fundamental story, specifically our positive view on earnings growth can continue to support markets. Major shifts in these signposts, however, could change that.Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Don Lemon arrested for being a journalist after Trump demands he be arrested - this is meant to intimidate the press. Will it work? And Christopher Armitage is here reporting from Minneapolis on the siege...What's Tom Holman up to? Plus Greg Palast Explains the Real Story of Why the FBI Raided Georgia.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How war language is being used to collapse the distance between immigration enforcement, political retaliation, and the criminalization of dissent…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Attorney, author and podcaster Dean Obeidallah joins the program to explain why Greg Bovino, Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem need to be prosecuted. Firing is meaningless—at least if you want to stop the reign of terror being waged by ICE, CBP and DHS agents. The only way to do that is to charge Bovino, Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem with crimes for violating Minnesota state law. Plus, of course, the agents who murdered Renee Good earlier in January and Alex Pretti must be prosecuted as well.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Trump's walking back of his methods for ICE, critical videos from Tim Poole and Nick Fuentes, and more.Support Our Sponsors:CovePure - Head to http://www.covepure.com/problem and for a limited time, get $200 off your CovePure water purifierRugiet - Get 15% off your first order by going to http://rugiet.com/DAVE and using code DAVEPrize Picks - Use code POTP on the Prize Picks app for $50 in lineups after you make your first $5 lineup!Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.