Podcasts about Economics

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Pam Bondi's Valentine's Day letter, updates on movement in Iran, Trump defenders still coming up with excuses on Twitter, and more.Buy Lauren Smith's Book Here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GKH2L18T/ref=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cso_cp_apin_dp_T6ZVP6RDN350MC15HKNRSupport Our Sponsors:The Wellness Company - Recover & Regenerate. Click www.twc.health/problem and use code PROBLEM for 10% off on every order + Free Shipping for US residentsBrunt Workwear - http://bruntworkwear.com/ Use code PROBLEMLovebird - https://lovebirdfoods.com/dave Use code "DAVE" for 25% off your first order!NicNac - Go to http://nicnac.com/dave and use code DAVE for 20% off, or use the store locator to find Nic Nacs near you.Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about Pam Bondi's Valentine's Day letter, updates on movement in Iran, Trump defenders still coming up with excuses on Twitter, and more.Buy Lauren Smith's Book Here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GKH2L18T/ref=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cso_cp_apin_dp_T6ZVP6RDN350MC15HKNRSupport Our Sponsors:Superpower - https://superpower.com/ and use code PROBLEM for $20 off!Ultra - Don't sleep on Ultra Pouches. New customers get 15% Off with code PROBLEM at https://takeultra.com!My Patriot Supply - http://preparelikedave.comYoKratom - https://yokratom.com/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Head of U.S. Internet Research Brian Nowak joins U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst Nathan Feather to explain why the future of agentic commerce is closer than you think.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet ResearchNathan Feather: And I'm Nathan Feather, U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst.Brian Nowak: Today, how AI-powered shopping assistants are set to revolutionize the e-commerce experience.It's Tuesday, February 17th at 8am in New York.Nathan, let's talk a little bit about agentic commerce. When was the last time you reordered groceries? Or bought household packaged goods? Or compared prices for items you [b]ought online and said, ‘Boy, I wish there was an easier way to do this. I wish technology could solve this for me.'Nathan Feather: Yeah. Yesterday, about 24 hours ago.Brian Nowak: Well, our work on agentic commerce shows a lot of these capabilities could be [coming] sooner than a lot of people appreciate. We believe that agentic commerce could grow to be 10 to 20 percent of overall U.S. e-commerce by 2030, and potentially add 100 to 300 basis points of overall growth to e-commerce.There are certain categories of spend we think are going to be particularly large unlocks for agentic commerce. I mentioned grocery, I mentioned household essentials. We think these are some of the items that agentic commerce is really going to drive a further digitization of over the next five years.So maybe Nathan, let's start at the very top. Our work we did together shows that 40 to 50 percent of consumers in the U.S. already use different AI tools for product research, but only a mid single digit percentage of them are actually really starting their shopping journey or buying things today. What does that gap tell you about the agentic opportunity and some of the hurdles we have to overcome to close that gap from research to actual purchasing?Nathan Feather: Well, I think what it shows is that clearly there is demand from consumers for these products. We think agentic opens up both evolutionary and revolutionary ways to shop online for consumers. But at the moment, the tools aren't fully developed and the consumer behavior isn't yet there. And so, we think it'll take time for these tools to develop. But once they do, it's clear that the consumer use case is there and you'll start to see adoption.And building on that, Brian, on the large cap side, you've done a lot of work here on how the shopping funnel itself could evolve. Traditionally discovery has flowed through search, social or direct traffic. Now we're seeing agents begin to sit in the start of the funnel acting as the gatekeeper to the transaction. For the biggest platforms with massive reach, how meaningful is that shift?Brian Nowak: It is very meaningful. And I think that this agentic shift in how people research products, price compare products, purchase products, is going to lead to even more advertis[ing] and value creation opportunity for the big social media platforms, for the big video platforms. Because essentially these big platforms that have large corpuses of users, spending a lot of time on them are going to be more important than ever for companies that want to launch new products. Companies that want to introduce their products to new customers.People that want to start new businesses entirely, it's going to be harder to reach new potential customers in an agentic world. So, I think some of these leading social and reach based video platforms are going to go up in value and you'll see more spend on those for people to build awareness around new and existing products.On this point of the products, you know, our work shows that grocery and consumer packaged goods are probably going to be one of the largest category unlocks. You know, we already know that over 50 percent of incremental e-commerce growth in the U.S. is going to come from grocery and CPG. And we think agentic is going to be a similar dynamic where grocery and CPG is going to drive a lot of agentic spend.Why do you think that is? And sort of walk us through, what has to happen in your mind for people to really pivot and start using agents to shop for their weekly grocery basket?Nathan Feather: I think one of the key things about the grocery category is it's a very high friction category online. You have to go through and select each individual ingredient you want [in] the order, ensure that you have the right brand, the right number of units, and ensure that the substitutions – when somebody actually gets to the store – are correct.And so for a user, it just takes a substantial amount of time to build a basket for online grocery. We think agentic can change that by becoming your personal digital shopper. You can say something as simple as, ‘I want to make steak tacos for dinner.' And it can add all of the ingredients you want to your order. Go from the grocery store you like. And hey, it'll know your preferences. It'll know you already like a certain brand of tortillas, and it'll add those to the cart. And so it just dramatically reduces the friction.Now, that will take time to build the tools. The tools aren't there today, but we think that can come sooner than people expect. Even over the next one to two years that you start to get this revolutionary grocery experience.And so, it's coming. And from your perspective, Brian, once agentic grocery shopping does start to work, how does that impact the broader e-commerce adoption curve? Does it pull forward agentic behavior in other categories as well?Brian Nowak: I think it does. I think it does lead to more durable multi-year, overall e-commerce growth. And potentially in some of our more bull case scenarios, we've built out – even an acceleration in e-commerce growth, even though the numbers and the dollars added are getting larger. But there is some tension around profitability.We are in a world where a lot of e-commerce companies, they generate an outsized percentage of their profit from advertising and retail media that is attached to current transactions. Agentic commerce and agents wedging themself between the consumer and these platforms potentially put some of these high-margin retail media ad dollars at risk.So talk us through some of the math that we've run on that potential risk to any of the companies that are feeding into these agents for people to shop through.Nathan Feather: Well, in our work for most e-commerce companies, a majority – or sometimes even all – of their e-commerce profitability comes from the advertising side. And so this is the key profit pool for e-commerce. To the extent that goes away, there is one potential offset here, which is the lower fee that agentic offers for companies that currently have high marketing spend. To the extent that agentic offers a lower take rate, that could be an offset.But we think it's going to be very important for companies to monitor the retail media landscape and ensure they can try to keep direct traffic as best as possible. And things like onsite agents could be really important to making sure you're staying top of mind and owning that customer relationship.Now, on the platform side, search today captures an implied take rates that are 5-10 times higher than what we're seeing in the early agentic transaction fees. If this model does shift from CPC – or cost per click – towards a more commission based model, Brian, how do you think search platforms respond?Brian Nowak: I think the punchline is the percentage of traffic and transactions that retailers or brands or companies selling their items online that's paid is going to go up. You know, while search is a relatively more expensive channel on a per transaction basis, search works because there's a very large amount of unpaid and direct traffic that retailers benefit from post the first time they spend on search.Just some math on this. We're still at a situation where 80 percent of retailers' online traffic is free. Or direct. And so if we do get into a situation where there's a transition from a higher monetizing per transaction search to a lower monetizing per transaction agent, I would expect the search platforms to react by essentially making it more challenging to get free and direct and unpaid traffic. And we'll have that transition from more transactions at a lower rate; as opposed to fewer transactions at a higher rate, which is what we have now,Nathan, in our work, we also talked about a Five I's framework. We talked about inventory, infrastructure, innovation, incrementality and income statement, sort of a retailer framework to assess positioning within the agentic transition. Maybe walk us through what your big takeaways were from the Five I's framework and what it means that retailers need to be mindful of throughout this agentic transition.Nathan Feather: Well, for retailers, I think it's going to be very important that you're winning by differentiation. Having unique, competitively priced inventory with infrastructure that can fulfill that quickly to the consumer and critically staying on the leading edge of innovation.It's one thing to have the inventory. It's another thing to be able to be actively plugged into these agentic tools and make sure you're developing good experiences for your customers that actually are on this cutting edge. In addition, it's one thing to have all of that, but you want to make sure there's also incrementality opportunity.So [the] ability to go out, expand the TAM and gain market share. And of course what we just talked about with the margin risk, I think all of those are going to be very important. And so on balance for retailers, we do see a lot of opportunity. That's balanced with a lot of risk. But this is one of those key transition moments that we think companies that really execute and perform well should be able to perform nicely.Now finally, Brian, over the next five years, how do you think agent commerce reshapes competitive dynamics across the internet ecosystem?Brian Nowak: I think over the next few years, we're going to realize that agentic commerce is no longer a fringe experiment or a concept. It's a reality. And we may get to the point where we don't even talk about agentic commerce or agentic shopping. We just say, “‘This cool thing I did through my browser.' Or, ‘Look at what my search portal can do. Look at how my search portal found me this product. Look at how my groceries got delivered.' And it'll become part of recurring life. It'll become normal.So right now we say it's agentic, it's far off. It's going to take time to develop. But I would argue that every year that goes by, it's going to be becoming more part of normal life. And we'll just say, ‘This is how I shop online.'Nathan, thanks for taking the time todayNathan Feather: It was great speaking with you, Brian.Brian Nowak: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Fourth lecture of Principles of Economics explores labor as the sacrifice of leisure for future gain, explaining disutility, production and productivity, how wages reflect marginal output, why work never disappears, and how voluntary labor and capital raise the value of human time.Get all course notes and slides on saifedean.com/poecourse

Dan Kirkwood works for SalmonState and in this episode we talk about forest management in Southeast Alaska, habitat for deer and salmon, the Tongass forest plan update, and the challenge of balancing logging, tourism, and local economies. Check out the On Step Alaska website or subscribe on Substack for articles, features and all things Alaska. Thanks to the sponsors: Sagebrush Dry (Alaskan-owned business that sells the best dry bags you can buy.) Alpine Fit (Premium outdoor layering from another Alaskan-owned business.) Backcountry Hunters and Anglers  

The League Episode #42 – Show Notes In episode 42 of The League, David Magid and Benoy Thanjan break down major developments shaping power markets, grid modernization, and clean energy investment. David highlights PJM's proposed emergency capacity auction featuring 15-year contracts, a potential game changer for project finance and new generation. He also covers Massachusetts' vehicle-to-grid pilot, signaling early progress toward virtual power plants. Benoy shares insights from DistribuTech, where AI-driven load growth, microgrids, and grid resiliency dominated conversations. He also reports from the Cleantech Forum, where venture capital is becoming more cautious and capital efficiency is now critical for startups. The big picture: the energy transition continues, but market signals, grid constraints, and tighter capital are reshaping how projects get built and financed.   Host Bio: Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy, solar developer and consulting firm, and a strategic advisor to multiple cleantech startups. Over his career, Benoy has developed over 100 MWs of solar projects across the U.S., helped launch the first residential solar tax equity funds at Tesla, and brokered $45 million in Renewable Energy Credits (“REC”) transactions. Prior to founding Reneu Energy, Benoy was the Environmental Commodities Trader in Tesla's Project Finance Group, where he managed one of the largest environmental commodities portfolios. He originated REC trades and co-developed a monetization and hedging strategy with senior leadership to enter the East Coast market.  As Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners, Benoy crafted project finance solutions for commercial-scale solar portfolios. His role at Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund with 125 MWs of U.S. renewable assets, involved evaluating investment opportunities and maximizing returns. He also played a key role in the sale of the firm's renewable portfolio.  Earlier in his career, Benoy worked in Energy Structured Finance at Deloitte & Touche and Financial Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, following an internship on the trading floor at D.E. Shaw & Co., a multi billion dollar hedge fund. Benoy holds an MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from NYU Stern, where he was an Alumni Scholar. Connect with Benoy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benoythanjan/ Learn more: https://reneuenergy.com https://www.solarmaverickpodcast.com   Host Bio: David Magid David Magid is a seasoned renewable energy executive with deep expertise in solar development, financing, and operations. He has worked across the clean energy value chain, leading teams that deliver distributed generation and community solar projects. David is widely recognized for his strategic insights on interconnection, market economics, and policy trends shaping the U.S. solar industry. Connect with David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmagid/  If you have any questions or comments, you can email us at info@reneuenergy.com.  

In this episode, host Daniel Raimi is joined by Luisa Palacios, an adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, who breaks down the major and most recent energy developments in Venezuela. Palacios recounts the role of oil in Venezuela's history and the implications of oil dependency as the country navigates another period of political uncertainty. Venezuela's oil industry, Palacios underscores, is a major player in the international energy market and faces obstacles to acquiring substantial investment. Palacios draws from her expertise in emerging markets and international affairs to note the critical moves to look for as the world awaits how Venezuela could balance efforts to reduce carbon intensity with economic growth. References and recommendations: “Reinventing Venezuela's Struggling Electricity Sector” by Francisco Morandi and Luisa Palacios; https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/reinventing-venezuelas-struggling-electricity-sector/ “Michael Webber on What's Behind Rising Energy Costs” episode of the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs; https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/michael-webber-on-whats-behind-rising-energy-costs/ “World Energy Investment” reports from the International Energy Agency; https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025#overview Subscribe to stay up to date on podcast episodes, news, and research from Resources for the Future: https://www.rff.org/subscribe/

Prokop Jirsa is a Czech game designer whose work has helped redefine what historical realism can look like in a modern role-playing game. After completing his Master's degree at the Prague University of Economics and Business, he joined Warhorse Studios as a designer on Kingdom Come: Deliverance. There, he helped shape the game's uncompromising approach to first-person immersion, historically grounded combat, and player choice rooted in consequence rather than power fantasy. Following the success of the first game, he continued that work as Lead Designer on its sequel—expanding its systems, scope, and narrative ambition while holding fast to the studio's commitment to authenticity and player agency. Across his career, his design philosophy has consistently favoured trust in the player, an approach that has earned Warhorse a devoted audience and a distinctive place in contemporary RPG design.Become a My Perfect Console supporter and receive a range of benefits at www.patreon.com/myperfectconsoleTake the Acast listener survey to help shape the show: My Perfect Console with Simon Parkin Survey 2025 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Misery of the Vaccine Business: The Real Economics of Pediatric VaccinationIn this episode of The Pediatric Lounge, the hosts reflect on the PMI conference in New Orleans and discuss how U.S. pediatricians are portrayed as “bad guys” because of vaccines, leading into a conversation with Dr. Gail Schoenfeld about the “misery of the vaccine business.” Schoenfeld describes her participation in a white paper on the real economics of pediatric vaccination, motivated in part by feeling insulted by claims that pediatricians profit from vaccines, and explains she tried to educate the authors on vaccine financing and delivery costs. The discussion details the extensive, time-intensive workflow and infrastructure required to store, track, administer, and document vaccines, including staffing time, inventory reconciliation between VFC and commercial stock, compliance tasks, refrigeration and monitoring systems, generators, maintenance, insurance, space costs, and after-hours emergencies. They address vaccine “wastage” such as broken vials, patient refusal after preparation, expiration, documentation errors that prevent billing, and demand shifts (including Schoenfeld's experience wasting 70 Moderna COVID doses at $133 each). The group argues that fixed reimbursement set by insurers and Medicaid often fails to cover true costs, making vaccination a money-losing service for pediatric practices; they cite examples including Medicare valuing vaccine administration code 90460 at $24 and Virginia's Medicaid not paying 90460 and restricting VFC reimbursement to a limited admin fee, resulting in losses per vaccine, with a Mississippi example of $11 payment. They discuss why adult practices often refer vaccination to pharmacies and note pediatricians cannot easily do so. The conversation expands to broader issues with Medicaid underfunding, VFC compliance burdens and liability, quality incentive programs (HEDIS/NCQA) and how incentives can be perceived as conflicts of interest despite being framed as deferred or conditional payment, and how vaccine mandates and distrust after COVID have reduced routine vaccination uptake. Schoenfeld shares past work running community COVID vaccine clinics and contrasts inefficiencies seen elsewhere. The episode ends with reflections on pediatricians being underpaid despite providing essential preventive care, Schoenfeld's commitment to serving a largely Medicaid population in the Hamptons, and her upcoming presentation on cost center/call center reports at a future conference, followed by standard podcast outro and disclaimer.00:00 Welcome Back + PMI New Orleans Takeaways (Why Pediatricians Support the show

Financial analyst and economic expert Bill Holter returns to the program to address what he describes as the targeted suppression of the gold and silver markets. Holter breaks down the recent major price readjustment, including the rapid dumping of large volumes of metal and how certain individuals and entities in China have reportedly been implicated and subsequently locked out of trading. We also discuss the accelerating loss of confidence in government debt worldwide, and why Holter believes we are now in a global monetary reset. With volatility intensifying and systemic risks becoming harder to ignore, Holter explains why preparation is critical and reiterates practical steps to protect assets as long-standing financial assumptions continue to break down.Learn more about Bill Holter at his website at https://BillHolter.com Links mentioned in the show:Sign up for my newsletter, see exclusives and more at SarahWestall.Substack.comProtect your assets with a company you can trust – Get the private & better price list – Go tohttps://SarahWestall.com/MilesFranklinConsider subscribing:Follow on X @Sarah_WestallFollow on my Substack at SarahWestall.Substack.com

Today's episode is the third in a series of three that examine the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we're speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. The report is titled, “If China Attacks Taiwan” and it is posted on GMFUS.org.  Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for the Chinese economy.To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.Our guests today are Charlie Vest and Logan Wright, who co-authored the chapter on the implications for the Chinese economy of a failed operation against Taiwan. Logan is a partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm's work on China's economy and its global impact. Charlie is an associate director at Rhodium Group, where he manages corporate research and advisory work on China.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:34] Key Takeaways: China's Ambitions vs. Economic Realities [05:41] The Escalation Dilemma in China's Decisionmaking[09:56] Immediate Disruptions to Trade and FDI[13:52] Gray-Zone Military Engagement and Political Pressures[16:48] Could Beijing Underestimate the Costs of US Intervention? [24:12] Policy Tools and Limitations for Economic Stabilization and Recovery[27:19] Long-Term Economic Effects[29:24] Impact of Social Instability

European equities futures point south as Wall Street is set to return to trading following the President's Day holiday. A.I. concerns remain with the Nasdaq stuck deep in the red. Eurogroup ministers meet in Brussels to plan to strengthen the euro's role globally. The bloc is also preparing to unveil new draft laws designed to protect key sectors of industry. In Geneva, a second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran are due to begin with President Trump indirectly involved. Officials from Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. also meet for another round of peace negotiations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's possible to look at the course of history over the past few centuries and discern a movement toward increasing democracy, freedom, and individual rights -- "liberalism," in the political-philosophy sense of the term. But such movement isn't inevitable or irreversible, and in very recent times there have been both intellectual arguments explicitly pushing back against the liberal consensus, and political movements that are more openly nativist and authoritarian. I talk with Adam Gurri, the editor-in-chief of Liberal Currents, a web site that "publishes writers of diverse perspectives who share an unflinching commitment to freedom, pluralism, and democracy, in opposition to authoritarianism at home and around the world." Go to https://surfshark.com/mindscape or use code MINDSCAPE at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN! Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2026/02/16/344-adam-gurri-on-liberal-democracy-and-how-to-fight-for-it/ Support Mindscape on Patreon. Adam Gurri received an M.A. in Economics from George Mason University. He is the co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Liberal Currents. Web site Liberal Currents Bluesky

How did an industry survive a technology that should have made it obsolete? Aled Maclean-Jones explains to EconTalk's Russ Roberts how Japanese quartz watches nearly wiped out Swiss watchmaking with cheaper, more accurate alternatives--and how the Swiss redefined the value of a watch to recover market dominance. Maclean-Jones discusses the Japanese innovations that led to the Swiss industry's collapse; the brilliant decision by a pair of Swiss mavericks to change the narrative around mechanical watches; and the consolidation and standardization of Swiss watchmaking undertaken by Swatch founder Nicolas Hayek.

Iconic investors sit down with Morgan Stanley leaders to go behind the scenes on the critical moments – both successes and setbacks – that shaped who they are today.Watch and listen to the series on your favorite platform.

Michael Norton reveals the science behind rituals that can help us change the way we feel and perform.— YOU'LL LEARN — 1) What makes rituals more powerful than habits2) How rituals help you get into the zone3) Simple team rituals to build closenessSubscribe or visit AwesomeAtYourJob.com/ep1129 for clickable versions of the links below. — ABOUT MICHAEL — Michael I. Norton is a professor at Harvard Business School. Michael's research focuses on behavioral economics and well-being, with particular attention given to happiness and spending, income inequality, the IKEA effect, and, most recently, rituals.Michael Norton's research has been published in popular media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Forbes, and The New York Times, as well as academic journals like Science, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the American Economic Review. His “How to Buy Happiness” TED Talk has been viewed over 4 million times, and his work has been parodied by The Onion. In 2013, Norton co-authored Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending with Elizabeth Dunn. His recent book The Ritual Effect focuses on the surprising and versatile power of rituals.• Book: The Ritual Effect: From Habit to Ritual, Harness the Surprising Power of Everyday Actions• Quiz: "Are you turning mundane moments into meaningful ones?"• Website: MichaelNorton.com— RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THE SHOW — • Study: "Overearning" by Christopher K. Hsee, Jiao Zhang, Fengyan Cai, and Shirley Zhang• Book: The Gift: How the Creative Spirit Transforms the World by Lewis Hyde— THANK YOU SPONSORS! — • Monarch.com. Get 50% off your first year on with the code AWESOME.• Shopify. Sign up for your $1/month trial at Shopify.com/betterSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomJob Openings fall Half a MillionWhy Manufacturing Jobs Aren't Growing YetGOP Bails out the UNTrump to AI: Build your own PowerFlorida Makes Gold Legal TenderRead the article "Florida Makes Gold Legal Tender" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletProfstonge WeeklyWeekly articles on economics and freedom and a monthly investment Watch ListDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

This is a more in-depth look at how I manipulate lease deals to get the best economics for our clients at The Gym Real Estate Company.—-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I solve problems in your business and make you more money.  Guaranteed. For over a decade I've been working with gym owners (via one-on-one consulting) to help create tailored solutions to solve their business problems, engineer the game plan and empower them to execute the strategy.Stop wishing your business problems are going to magically go away.  Invest in your business and let me solve your problems and optimize your business fast and efficiently. We'll work together daily/weekly, with a monthly call until the problem is solved and then I want you to fire me.  Because this is YOUR business, I'm just here to solve a specific problem and then get out of your way.⁠Learn more about what it's like for us to work together.⁠—-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to increase your business IQ by 100x for only $50? Get enrolled in Microgym University - the only online business school that teaches you the best practices and business frameworks from some of the most successful brands in our industry and then lets you decide which ones to install in your business.New courses are added every month. ⁠⁠www.microgymuniversity.com⁠⁠ —-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Need help leasing or buying a building?I created the Gym Real Estate Company so that gym owners had someone who could go beyond the duties of a typical real estate broker and actually advise them on business aspects as they relate to site selection, market location fit, operational capacity, facility layout, pre-sell marketing, and more.If you're looking for help with your next lease or if you want us to help you along the journey of buying a building -⁠ ⁠⁠⁠head over to www.gymrealestate.co and book a Discovery Call.⁠—--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Natioanlly, inflation has cooled to 2.4%. But other factors are making the Valley a more expensive travel destination. It's Money Monday, and Evan Taylor, associate professor of economics at the University of Arizona joins the show to discuss the latest economic topics. 

02/16/26: Riaz Aziz is an Instructor of Economics at Concordia College, and has taught graduate and undergraduate courses in business, economics, management, finance, and entrepreneurship. Riaz is also the CEO of the Begunahi Foundation USA, which is dedicated to educating and empowering underprivileged women in India. (Joel Heitkamp is a talk show host on the Mighty 790 KFGO in Fargo-Moorhead. His award-winning program, “News & Views,” can be heard weekdays from 8 – 11 a.m. Follow Joel on X/Twitter @JoelKFGO.)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bible Direction for Life is the sermon podcast of Westside Baptist Church in Bremerton, Washington. This sermon is entitled "Church Economics" and was preached by Josh Bartels on February 15, 2026. If you would like to learn more about Westside Baptist Church, please visit our Website: www.BibleDirectionForLife.com. Subscribe to the Podcast if you would like to hear new sermons and lessons each week.  

About Lewis Ross is an Associate Professor in the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method at the London School of Economics. He is also the Director of LSE's Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS). Lewis works on different topics at the intersection between epistemology, philosophy of law, and political philosophy. Right now, he is particularly interested in the theory and practice of criminal justice. His PhD was from the University of St Andrews and before that he completed a law degree. Abstract Philosophy is much changed from the time that many of the analytic classics were produced. It now resembles, in many ways, a mature scientific discipline—with large division of cognitive labour. Big philosophical questions are routinely broken down into ever-smaller research questions and addressed in growing thousands of narrow publication units. Yet what purpose does this division of labour serve? Philosophers are notoriously sceptical about simply relying on each other's published findings. Indeed, most publications seem to add to, rather than reduce, philosophical disagreement. There is a looming worry about absurdity here. Large amounts of intellectual effort are spent on activities that seemingly do not contribute to settling the core questions of the field. In response to this worry, some are tempted by radical claims about the point of philosophy. For instance, some say that it is an ‘exceptional' field that does not aim to settle on knowledge or truth in the same way as other fields of inquiry. But this response, it seems to me, still leaves the structure of contemporary philosophy without justification. In this talk, I grapple with this problem and explore a more optimistic perspective. I consider a middle ground between two typical ways to think about philosophical progress: locating progress not in the mind of the individual, nor in the discipline as a whole, but rather in the small research communities that populate it.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists that Washington wants to reform rather than abandon the trans-Atlantic alliance. We speak exclusively to German foreign minister Johann Wadephul at the Munich Security Conference who says Rubio's speech assured the path of future cooperation. European equities are called higher while U.S. markets are shut for President's Day with A.I. concerns continuing to be felt across sectors. Japanese Q4 GDP disappoints, coming in at only 0.2 per cent on the year and far below expectations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In today's episode, we examine the evolving trade arrangement between Taiwan and the United States and what it truly represents beyond the headlines. This is not simply about tariff adjustments or procurement commitments. It reflects a broader shift in the global economic order, where supply chains are increasingly shaped by security considerations rather than pure efficiency. Taiwan's central role in semiconductors and advanced manufacturing places it at the heart of this transformation. We will explore the structural forces that led to this agreement, its immediate macroeconomic implications for Taiwan, and the longer-term strategic trade-offs. Does deeper integration with the United States strengthen Taiwan's economic resilience, or does it gradually reshape the geography of its technological advantage? Let's take a closer look at what this deal really means. 在今天的節目中，我們將探討臺灣與美國之間持續演變的貿易安排，以及它在新聞標題之外所代表的意義。這不只是關於關稅或採購承諾，而是反映全球經濟秩序的轉變——供應鏈的布局越來越受到安全優先考量的影響，而不再僅僅追求效率。臺灣在半導體與先進製造領域的關鍵角色，使其處於這場轉型的核心位置。 本集將分析促成這項協議的結構性因素、對臺灣短期總體經濟的影響，以及長期的戰略意涵。更深入地整合美國市場，究竟能否強化臺灣的經濟穩定性，還是會逐步改變其技術優勢的地理分布？讓我們理性檢視這項協議對臺灣未來發展所釋放的訊號。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

Trump goes after Canada again just after his billionaire commerce secretary meets with the billionaire owner of a privately owned competing bridge between Canada and Mexico. Can you spell corruption? Why Wisdom Is Almost Always Mistaken for a Threat When It First Appears. Plus journalist John Parker reports from Minnesota. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Robin and the great Cherokee economist Rebecca Adamson plan and plot alternative, practical, sane, sustainable ways to save our planet.

Airline pilots love to debate (and sometimes complain about) unions, but do pilot unions actually make pilots “richer”? In this episode of A Wiser Retirement® Podcast, we break down what unions really change, what they don't, and why the answer depends on how you define “richer.”Related Podcast Episodes: Ep 259. What Pilots (& Others) Should Consider 5 Years Before Mandatory RetirementEp 273. How Early Retirement Affects Pilot BenefitsEp 322. How Airline Pilots Can Make the Most of Their Profit-Sharing BonusRelated Financial Education Videos:When Should Pilots File for Social Security?What Would a Change in FAA Retirement Age Mean for Pilots?Learn More:- About Wiser Wealth Management- Schedule a Complimentary Consultation: Discover how we can help you achieve financial freedom.- Access Our Free Guides: Gain valuable insights on building a financial legacy, the importance of a financial advisor for business owners, post-divorce financial planning, and more! Stay Connected: - Social Media: Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn | Twitter- A Wiser Retirement® YouTube Channel This podcast was produced by Wiser Wealth Management. Thanks for listening!

durée : 01:47:54 - Soft Power - par : Frédéric Martel - Depuis l'intervention américaine au Venezuela, les récits sur le pays s'entrechoquent, entre dénonciation d'une opération d'ingérence étrangère, célébration de la chute de Maduro et soutien au nouveau gouvernement. Une lutte d'influence à l'intérieur du pays, mais aussi à l'international. - réalisation : Peire Legras, Alexandra Malka - invités : Rosmit Mantilla Politique vénézuélien, ancien député à l'Assemblée Nationale du Venezuela; Gaspard Estrada Politologue, membre de l'unité du Sud Global à la London School of Economics; Raphaëlle Bacqué Grand reporter au quotidien "Le Monde"; Julie Kretzchmar Commissaire générale de la Saison Méditerranée 2026

La clôture du France Digital Day a offert une scène singulière avec un échange entre Gabriel Zucman, professeur à l'École normale supérieure et directeur de l'Observatoire européen de la fiscalité, et Philippe Aghion, professeur au Collège de France, à l'INSEAD et à la London School of Economics. Devant plusieurs centaines d'entrepreneurs et d'investisseurs, les deux économistes ont débattu du sujet de la taxation des grandes fortunes et de ses effets potentiels sur l'innovation.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/fw-in-the-loop--3299227/support.

ICE doesn't need their masks; they are safer than school children. Guess who is not safe, though? Grandmothers! For the TH Book Club Thom read's from Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight and Harriet Tubman.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey Smarties! There won't be a livestream for “Economics on Tap” today. But don't worry! “Economics on Tap” will return soon on Feb. 20. For now, we're sharing a new episode from our friends over at “This Is Uncomfortable.” Enjoy!Author and journalist Aymann Ismail wants his kids to grow up with a real connection to their Egyptian roots, including speaking Arabic. For his family, that means committing to a private Islamic school — and figuring out how to afford tuition.“This Is Uncomfortable” host Reema Khrais sits down with Aymann as he walks through his family budget and the financial trade-offs that decision requires. They talk about what's at stake for him, financially and culturally, and why holding onto Arabic feels especially urgent right now.If you liked this episode, share it with a friend. And if you want to tell us what you thought about the episode or about a tricky financial decision you've made, email us at uncomfortable@marketplace.org or call 347-RING-TIU. And follow our new social accounts on Instagram and Tiktok @ThisIsUncomfortablePod

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about the continuing proceedings over the Epstein files including Pam Bondi being questioned, her stand off with Thomas Massie, and more.Buy Lauren Smith's Book Here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GKH2L18T/ref=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cso_cp_apin_dp_T6ZVP6RDN350MC15HKNRSupport Our Sponsors:Joi +Blokes - Go Blokes to joiandblokes.com and use code DAVE for 50% off your labs and 20% off all supplementsBodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderCovePure - Head to http://www.covepure.com/problem and for a limited time, get $200 off your CovePure water purifier.Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Arunima Sinha, from the U.S. and Global Economics team, discusses how an upcoming Supreme Court decision could reshape consumer prices, retail margins and the inflation outlook in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's U.S. and Global Economics Teams.Today: How a single Supreme Court ruling could change the tariff math for U.S. consumers.It's Friday, February 13th at 10am in New York.The U.S. Supreme Court is deciding whether the U.S. president has legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs under IEEPA. That decision could come as soon as next Friday. IEEPA, or the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, is the legal backbone for a significant share of today's consumer goods tariffs. If the Supreme Court limits how it can be used, tariffs on many everyday items could fall quickly – affecting prices on the shelf, margins for retailers, and the broader inflation outlook.As of now, effective tariff rates on consumer goods are running about 15 percent, and that's based on late 2025 November data. And that's quite a bit higher than the roughly 10 percent average, which we're seeing as tariffs on all goods. In a post IEEPA scenario, we think that the effective tariff rate on consumer goods could fall to the mid-11 percent range.It's not zero, but it is meaningfully lower.An important caveat is that this is not going to be eliminating all tariffs. Other trade tools – like Section 232s, which are the national security tariffs, Section 301s, the tariffs that are related to unfair trade practices – would remain in place. Autos and metals, for example, are largely outside the IEEPA discussion.The main pressure point we think is consumer goods. IEEPA has been used for two major sets of tariffs. The fentanyl-related tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, and the so-called reciprocal tariffs applied broadly across trading partners. And these often stack on top of the existing tariffs, such as the MFN, the Most Favored Nation rates, and the section 301 duties on China that were already existing before 2025.The exposure is really concentrated in certain categories of consumer goods. So, for example, in apparel and footwear, about 60 percent of the applied tariffs are IEEPA related. For furniture and home improvement, it's over 70 percent. For toys, games, and sporting equipment, it's more than 90 percent. So, if the IEEPA authority is curtailed, the category level effects would be meaningful.There are caveats, of course. The court's decision may not be all or nothing. And policymakers could turn to alternative authorities. One example is Section 122, which allows across the board tariffs for up to 15 percent for 150 days. So, tariffs could just reappear under different tools. But in the near term, fully replacing IEEPA-based tariffs on consumer goods may not be straightforward, especially given ongoing affordability concerns.So, how does that matter for the real economy? There are two key channels, prices and margins. On prices we estimate that about 60 percent of the tariff costs are typically passed on to the consumers over two to three quarters, but it's not instant. Margins though could respond faster. If companies get cost relief before they adjust prices downwards, that creates a temporary margin tailwind. That could influence hiring, investment and earnings across retail and consumer supply chains.Over time, lower tariffs could also reinforce that broader return to core goods disinflation starting in the second quarter of this year. And because tariff driven inflation has weighed more heavily on the middle- and lower-income households, any eventual price relief could disproportionately benefit those groups.At the end of the day, this isn't just a legal story. It is a timing story. If IEEPA authority is curtailed, the arithmetic shifts pretty quickly. Margins move first, prices follow later, and the path back to goods disinflation could accelerate. That's why this is one ruling worth watching before the gavel drops.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

Hey Smarties! There won't be a livestream for “Economics on Tap” today. But don't worry! “Economics on Tap” will return soon on Feb. 20. For now, we're sharing a new episode from our friends over at “This Is Uncomfortable.” Enjoy!Author and journalist Aymann Ismail wants his kids to grow up with a real connection to their Egyptian roots, including speaking Arabic. For his family, that means committing to a private Islamic school — and figuring out how to afford tuition.“This Is Uncomfortable” host Reema Khrais sits down with Aymann as he walks through his family budget and the financial trade-offs that decision requires. They talk about what's at stake for him, financially and culturally, and why holding onto Arabic feels especially urgent right now.If you liked this episode, share it with a friend. And if you want to tell us what you thought about the episode or about a tricky financial decision you've made, email us at uncomfortable@marketplace.org or call 347-RING-TIU. And follow our new social accounts on Instagram and Tiktok @ThisIsUncomfortablePod

One of Trump's top allies and dinner-party guests is now calling for American women to be imprisoned in the ICE Concentration Camps. Why does this keep coming up? Dem lawmaker flags explosive Trump allegation in Epstein files. Here's the interesting line - “Witness calls FBI's [National Threat Operations Center] and reports girl, later found dead, told him Trump and Epstein raped her. Also journalist John Parker reports from Minnesota. Plus Phil Ittner with the Ukraine Briefing.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Can we reject the politics of concentration camps, election denial, and oligarchy by showing up in numbers too large to ignore?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ----In this episode, I'm joined by Jaime Sevilla, founder of Epoch AI; Hannah Petrovic from my team at Exponential View; and financial journalist Matt Robinson from AI Street. Together we investigate a fundamental question: do the economics of AI companies actually work? We analysed OpenAI's financials from public data to examine whether their revenues can sustain the staggering R&D costs of frontier models. The findings reveal a picture far more precarious than many assume; we also explore where the real infrastructure bottlenecks lie, why compute demand will dwarf energy constraints, and what the rise of long-running agentic workloads means for the entire industry. Read the study here: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/inside-openais-unit-economics-epoch-exponentialviewWe covered: (00:00) Do the economics of frontier AI actually work? (02:48) Piecing together OpenAI's finances from public data (05:24) GPT-5's "rapidly depreciating asset" problem (13:25) Why OpenAI is flirting with ads (17:31) If you were Sam Altman, what would you do differently? (22:54) Energy vs. GPUs; where the real infrastructure bottleneck lies (29:15) What surging compute demand actually looks like (33:12) The most surprising finding from the research (38:02) The race to avoid commoditization (43:35) Agents that outlive their models  Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Where to find Jamie: https://epoch.ai or https://epochai.substack.com Where to find Matt: https://www.ai-street.co  Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Whether it's the financial crash, the climate emergency or the breakdown of the international order, historian Adam Tooze has become the go-to guide to the radical new world we've entered By Robert P Baird. Read by James Sobol Kelly. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/longreadpod

In this bonus episode for BJJ business owners, we're joined again by David Bayarena! David is a BJJ black belt, a longtime BJJMM community member, and the founder of RONIN: a financial planning & training firm specialized in working with Jiu-Jitsu gyms.This conversation focuses on how BJJ gym owners can survive economic volatility and build real wealth, not just create a job for themselves. Topics include: cash flow discipline, break-even analysis, liquidity reserves, entity structure (LLCs vs. S-Corps), tax strategy, insurance protection, inflation, and smart use of leverage.Email David:david@roninwealth.com Work with David at RONIN Wealth:https://www.roninwealth.com⬆️ LEVEL UP with BJJ Mental Models Premium!The world's LARGEST library of Jiu-Jitsu audio lessons, our complete podcast network, online coaching, and much more! Your first week is free:https://bjjmentalmodels.comNeed more BJJ Mental Models?Get the legendary BJJMM newsletter:https://bjjmentalmodels.com/newsletterLearn more mental models in our online database:https://bjjmentalmodels.com/databaseFollow us on social:https://instagram.com/bjjmentalmodelshttps://threads.com/@bjjmentalmodelshttps://bjjmentalmodels.bsky.socialhttps://youtube.com/@bjjmentalmodelsMusic by Enterprize:https://enterprize.bandcamp.com

Together at last. In a rare joint performance, Dante and Matt join the Inside Economics crew to unpack January's jobs and CPI reports. The brief federal government shutdown delayed economic data releases a few days, which made for a loaded slate this week. Dante shares his impression of January's seemingly strong jobs report and then the team plays the stats game. A brief hiatus did not affect Marisa's ability to dominate. Matt then goes through the first inflation data of 2026, and where it looks like inflation is headed in the coming months.View the Full U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Webinar here: https://events.moodys.com/ta6186-2026-bank-odwbn-mau28334-us-economic-outlook-q1View our AI generated paper here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=165AB685-ED95-43E8-8533-DA2CE131A01A&app=downloadHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Technovation, Peter High speaks with Saam Motamedi, General Partner at Greylock Partners, about the evolving role of artificial intelligence within the enterprise technology stack. They discuss how venture capital approaches enterprise AI companies at an early stage, how large enterprises are evaluating changes to their technology stacks, and what implications AI may have for workforce dynamics. Saam shares perspectives on how AI may influence infrastructure decisions, application development, and software business models over time. Key insights include: Shifts in enterprise infrastructure strategy Usage- and outcome-based software economics The future of AI agents What large enterprises should understand about emerging AI startups

I can't say I agree with everything my friend @Scottslifeeh said in this 65-minute conversation. Still, I acknowledge that the argument he presented is internally coherent and explains much of today's geopolitical tensions. It's always a pleasure to talk with him. I'm curious to what extent you agree with his theory about Trump as a disruptor of the City of London / Anglo-financial empire.

Present Values and Future Values Business Finance, FIL 240-001, Spring 2026, Lecture 9 Type: mp3 audio file ©2026

Present Values and Future Values Business Finance, FIL 240-002, Spring 2026, Lecture 9 Type: mp3 audio file ©2026

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets explains how key market indicators reflect a constructive view around the global cyclical outlook, despite a volatile start to 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the unusual alignment of a number of key indicators. It's Thursday, February 12th at 2pm in London. A frustrating element of investing is that any indicator at any time can let you down. That makes sense. With so much on the line, the secret to markets probably isn't just one of a hundreds of data series that a thousand of us can access at the push of a button. But many indicators all suggesting the same? That's far more notable. And despite a volatile start to 2026 with big swings in everything from Japanese government bonds to software stocks, it is very much what we think is happening below the surface. Specifically, a variety of indicators linked to optimism around the global cyclical outlook are all stronger, all moving up and to the right. Copper, which is closely followed as an economically sensitive commodity, is up strongly. Korean equities, which have above average cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade is the best performing of any major global equity market over the last year. Financials, which lie at the heart of credit creation, have been outperforming across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. And more recently, year-to-date cyclicals and transports are outperforming. Small caps are leading, breadth is improving, and the yield curve is bear steepening. All of these are the outcomes that you'd expect, all else equal, if global growth is going to be stronger in the future than it is today. Now individually, these data points can be explained away. Maybe Copper is just part of an AI build out story. Maybe Korea is just rebounding off extreme levels of valuation. Maybe Financials are just about deregulation in a steeper yield curve. Maybe the steeper yield curve is just about the policy uncertainty. And small cap stocks have been long-term laggards – maybe every dog has its day. But collectively, well, they're exactly what investors will be looking for to confirm that the global growth backdrop is getting stronger, and we believe they form a pretty powerful, overlapping signal worthy of respect. But if things are getting better, how much is too much. In the face of easier fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy, the market may focus on other signposts to determine whether we now have too much of a good thing. For example, is there signs of significant inflation on the horizon? Is volatility in the bond market increasing? Is the U.S. dollar deviating significantly from its fair value? Is the credit market showing weakness? And do stocks and credit now react badly when the data is good? So far, not yet. As we discussed on this program last week, long run inflation expectations in the U.S. and euro area remain pretty consistent with central bank targets. Expected volatility in U.S. interest rates has actually fallen year-to-date. The U.S. dollar's valuation is pretty close to what purchasing power parity would suggest. Credit has been very stable. And better than expected labor market data on Wednesday was treated well. Any single indicator can and eventually will let investors down. But when a broad set of economically sensitive signals all point in the same direction, we listen. Taken together, we think this alignment is still telling a story of supportive fundamental tailwinds while key measures of stress hold. Until that evidence changes, we think those signals deserve respect. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Donald Trump goes after GOPers for canceling White House meetings that excluded Democrats. Did no one tell them you have to be 100% loyal or you'll be kicked out? Also journalist John Parker reports from Minnesota. Plus from France to Germany to Canada, governments are recalibrating their security, technology, and defense policies around one unspoken reality: America can't be counted on… Special Guest Mary Trump gives insights on the Tariff loss, Pam Bondi, and more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From France to Germany to Canada, governments are recalibrating their security, technology, and defense policies around one unspoken reality: America can't be counted on…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein talk about the results of Thomas Massie reviewing more of the Epstein files with some redactions removed, Howard Lutnick being questioned on his connection to Epstein, and more.Support Our Sponsors:The Wellness Company - Visit twc.health/problem to get American Made Ivermectin. Order your 6-month supply today and use code PROBLEM for $30 Off + FREE shipping. USA Residents onlyProlon - https://prolonlife.com/potpPrize Picks - Use code POTP on the Prize Picks app for $50 in lineups after you make your first $5 lineup!VanMan - https://vanman.shop/DAVEPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement coming up for review, our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore unpacks whether our 2025 call for deeper trade integration still holds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research for Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be talking about our expectations for the upcoming USMCA review, and how the landscape has shifted from last year. It's Wednesday, February 11th at 4pm in London. As we highlighted last fall, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is approaching its first mandatory review in 2026. At the time, we argued that the risks were skewed modestly to the upside. Structural contingencies built into the agreement we think cap downside risk and tilt most outcomes toward preserving and over time deepening North American trade integration. That framing, we think, remains broadly intact. But some developments over the past few months suggest that the timing and the structure of that deeper integration could end up looking a little bit different than we initially expected. We still see a scenario where negotiators resolve targeted frictions and make limited updates, but we're increasingly mindful that some of the more ambitious policy maker goals – for example, new chapters on AI, critical minerals or more explicit guardrails on Chinese investment in Mexico – may be harder to formalize ahead of the mid-2026 deadline. So, what does the base case as we framed it last year still look like? We continue to expect an outcome that preserves the agreement and resolves several outstanding disputes – auto rules of origin, labor enforcement procedures, and select digital trade provisions. On the China question, our view from last year also still holds. We expect incremental steps by Mexico to reduce trans-shipment risk and better align with U.S. trade priorities, though likely without a fully institutionalized enforcement mechanism by mid-2026. And remember, the USMCA's 10-year escape clause keeps the agreement enforced at least through 2036, meaning the probability of a disruptive trade shock is structurally quite low. What may be shifting is not the direction of travel, but the pace and the form. A more comprehensive agreement may ultimately come, but possibly with a longer runway or through site agreements rather than updates to the USMCA text itself. Of course, those come with an enforcement risk just given the lack of congressional backing. We still expect the formal review to conclude around mid-2026, albeit with a growing possibility that deeper institutional alignment happens further out or via parallel frameworks. It also is possible that into that deadline all three sides decide to extend negotiations out further into the future, extending the uncertainty for even longer. So what does it all mean for macro and markets? For Mexico, maintaining tariff free access to the U.S. continues to be essential. The base case supports ongoing manufacturing integration, especially in autos and electronics. But without the newer, more strategic chapters that policymakers have discussed, the agreement would leave Mexico in a position that it's accustomed to – stable but short of a full nearshoring acceleration. This aligns with our view from last year, but we now see clearer near-term risks to the thesis of rapid institutional, deeper trade integration. For FX, the pace of benefit is from reduced uncertainty, but the effect is likely gradual. The absence of tangible progress on adding to the original deal suggests a more muted near-term impulse. For Canada, the implications are similarly two-sided. Near-term volatility around the review is likely underpriced, but a limited agreement should eventually lead to medium term USD-CAD downside. On the economics front, last year, we argued that the review would reinforce North America as a manufacturing block, even if it didn't fully resolve supply chain diversification from China. We think that remains true today, but with the added nuance that some of the more ambitious integration pathways may be pushed further out or structured outside of the formal USMCA chapters. So bottom line, our base case remains a measured, pragmatic outcome that reduces uncertainty, but preserves the core benefits of North American trade and supports growth across key asset classes. But it also increasingly looks like an outcome that may leave some strategic opportunities on the table for now, setting the stage for deeper alignment later – on a slightly longer horizon, or through a more flexible framework. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.