Podcasts about Economics

What does it take to build a team that consistently performs at a high level? In this episode, Kevin sits down with Dr. Vanessa Druskat to explore what emotionally intelligent teams look like and how leaders can foster them. Vanessa introduces the concept of "team emotional intelligence" and explains why team culture, not just individual skills or personalities, is often the key differentiator between average and high-performing teams. She shares her practical three-part model, based on nine team norms, that top teams use to create environments of trust, psychological safety, and accountability. Vanessa also discusses why emotionally intelligent teams are fundamentally about how people interact, not just how they feel. She reveals what leaders should do in the first meeting of a new team to set the tone for long-term performance, and why nonverbal behaviors and small habits matter more than you think. Listen For 00:00 Introduction to emotional intelligence and teams 00:29 Welcome and how to join future live sessions 01:02 How to connect with the community 01:25 About the book Flexible Leadership 02:11 Introducing guest Vanessa Druskat 03:09 Vanessa's early experiences with teams 04:09 Workplace realities that shaped her research 05:08 Growing up across cultures and learning to adapt 06:17 Discovering team cultures in organizations 07:20 What sets high performing teams apart 08:07 Exploring the model of team emotional intelligence 09:11 Understanding local team culture 10:04 The role leaders play in shaping micro culture 11:05 How teams can build their own culture 11:56 Why belonging and social needs matter 12:18 Teams as emotional systems 13:14 How emotions influence interactions 14:08 Creating cultures where disagreement is productive 15:17 The three clusters of team emotional intelligence 16:02 Helping individuals succeed 17:13 How great teams interact and improve 18:02 Reaching outside the team for ideas and resources 18:10 Where leaders should start with new teams 19:05 Setting norms intentionally 20:07 Why posted norms fail 21:00 Ownership and mutual understanding 21:21 Ensuring everyone has a voice 22:12 Assessing current norms 23:22 Impact of unintentional nonverbal signals 24:54 How small behaviors change team dynamics 25:53 Example of a team transformation 27:31 Importance of nonverbal cues and inclusion 28:07 Reaching outside the team and avoiding blinders 30:10 Leading in hybrid and remote environments 31:05 Belonging and psychological distance 32:03 Increasing intentional connection 32:50 Using check ins to strengthen relationships 34:04 Applying this in one-on-one conversations 34:27 What Vanessa does for fun 35:33 What Vanessa is reading 37:43 Where to find Vanessa and her resources 38:54 Closing challenge: What action will you take 40:05 Wrap up and invitation to subscribe Vanessa's Story: Dr. Vanessa Druskat is the author of The Emotionally Intelligent Team: Building Collaborative Groups that Outperform the Rest. She is an award-winning researcher and leading expert on team leadership, advising leaders in some of the world's top organizations. Her three decades of field research examining team cultures that inspire high-performing collaboration produced the Team Emotional Intelligence (Team EI) model. She and her colleagues have used the model globally to teach leaders how to build higher-performing teams. Vanessa is passionate about convincing leaders that under the right conditions, people are wired for collaborative teamwork. So, stop trying to fix people and start building emotionally intelligent team cultures that inspire teamwork. Also, an award-winning teacher, she serves on the faculty of the University of New Hampshire's Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics. This Episode is brought to you by... Flexible Leadership is every leader's guide to greater success in a world of increasing complexity and chaos.  Book Recommendations The Emotionally Intelligent Team: Building Collaborative Groups that Outperform the Rest by Vanessa Urch Druskat Social: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Connect by Matthew D. Lieberman Both/And Thinking: Embracing Creative Tensions to Solve Your Toughest Problems by Wendy Smith and Marianne Lewis Like this? Understanding Collaboration with Carlos Valdes-Dapena Building Incredible Collaborative Relationships with Dr. Deb Mashek Podcast Better! Sign up with Libsyn and get up to 2 months free! Use promo code: RLP   Leave a Review If you liked this conversation, we'd be thrilled if you'd let others know by leaving a review on Apple Podcasts. Here's a quick guide for posting a review. Review on Apple: https://remarkablepodcast.com/itunes    Join Our Community If you want to view our live podcast episodes, hear about new releases, or chat with others who enjoy this podcast join one of our communities below. Join the Facebook Group Join the LinkedIn Group  

On this episode of The Federalist Radio Hour, Phil Kerpen, president of American Commitment and principal of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, joins Federalist Senior Elections Correspondent Matt Kittle to discuss the nation's affordability crisis, dissect the disastrous consequences of Obamacare, and analyze President Donald Trump's 50-year mortgage proposal.If you care about combating the corrupt media that continue to inflict devastating damage, please give a gift to help The Federalist do the real journalism America needs.   

Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?Serena Tang: In terms of, I think the strategy outlook itself, a big shift has been what we think drive investor focus the most. Our strategy mid-year outlook had focused heavily on global macro risks, right? Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier.I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it's very much more about asset specific stories. And yes, you know, to your point about being, bullish on U.S. equities, we've maintained that view this time round and believe that U.S. equities can generally do better than rest of world.As you know, Mike Wilson, a colleague and chief U.S. equity strategist, he has a price target of 7800 for the S&P 500 index …Seth Carpenter: Wow.Serena Tang: Beating the expected returns from other regional equities by like quite a bit. So that's not changed. But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we've also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier.I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy. But there's also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay. So, as you're coming up with these strategies and these recommendations in lots of ways, it just relies on forecasting. And I have to say I'm sympathetic to how hard forecasting is, especially when it comes to the future. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy.So, with that as a backdrop, nothing is for sure. But where would you say your highest conviction calls are when it comes to investing in 2026?Serena Tang: Well, as I mentioned, we like U.S. equities and that remains a very high conviction call for us. [I] sort of dug through the details of that already. And so, I want to turn to a[n]other high conviction view, which is curve steepening. We see pretty material U.S. treasury curve steepening over the next year. I think even as a macro strategist, actually expect yields at least in the backend to be mostly range bound. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.Seth Carpenter: So that's super helpful in terms of the places where you're convicted. Let me be perhaps a little bit unfair because nothing is in fact certain. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there've got to be things where we're either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say?Serena Tang: So, one of them really is AI investment cycle abruptly ending. And this has been a topic of huge debate in all of the investor meetings that we've had over the last several weeks. Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. And of course that would likely pressure U.S. equities, I think given hyperscalers index weight. But could weirdly enough benefit IG credit by reducing issuance, which has been the main driver of wider spreads in our forecast. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it's not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view.Given, I think there's still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns.The last risk, I think, to our asset allocation, is really the Fed. Either the FOMC not easing further over the next 12 months or if it changes its reaction function. And I think both of those will have very different implications of what happens to the front end of the yield curve. So, my question to you, Seth, is what do you see as the probability around both of those scenarios?Seth Carpenter: Look, with the data that we have before the government shut down, it was clear there was a tension. Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. Employment data were getting weaker and weaker, and the Fed has decided to start cutting to err on the side of insulating against further deterioration in the labor market.So, one thing that could upend our forecast is that the real signal is from the spending. Spending stays strong, the labor market eventually catches up to the stronger spending, and we start to see job gains come back. If that happens, especially with inflation now running notably above the Fed's target, I just don't really think we're going to get anywhere near the number of rate cuts that we forecast or that are already priced into market. So, you'd have to see a reversal.How likely is that you can't rule it out? I'd say 20 percent or something like that. Maybe a little bit more. On the other hand, to the downside. I wonder if what you're getting at a little bit is there's going to be some turnover in the personnel at the Fed. And do we have to worry about a fundamentally different reaction function from the Fed going forward and cutting rates aggressively, even if the macro considerations don't warrant? Is that really what you were getting at?Serena Tang: Yes. I think that has been the question on the forefront of investors' minds…Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I think that's a real question. The way I look at it is Chair Powell is in charge of the Fed now. His term goes through May of next year. And so, until we get to the middle of next year, I don't really think there's any fundamental change in how the Fed does business. But it really does seem like we're going to have a new Fed chair in June of next year. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that's how policy is decided. And so, if there was a new chair who really, really, really wanted to take policy in a truly unorthodox way, I also don't think that's really feasible over the second half of next year – because there just won't have been that much turnover in terms of the personnel of the Fed. That's how we're looking at it for now. I really don't think that latter version of the world is a big risk. That said, I'm going to throw it back to you [be]cause I always have to get the last word.You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. But one thing I didn't hear – and we do have a global investor base – Is about currencies and specifically the dollar.So, this time last year, the team made a pretty bold call that the dollar would depreciate a great deal. And here we are and the dollar has come off a lot on net over this year. That stabilized a little bit. Maybe not for the whole year [be]cause that kind of forecasting is hard for currencies. But what do you see over the next few months called the next half year for the dollar? Is it going to continue the trend or do you think we should see a reversal?Serena Tang: So, we do think the dollar will continue its trend downwards from here to the middle of next year. And I know, I know. There's been a lot of discussion, there's been a lot of debate around whether the dollar has basically stopped where we are. But the thing is, you know, going back to what you mentioned around the path for growth in the U.S. and unemployment in the U.S. – if we do see softer economic data in the first half of next year, that can drive the dollar downwards. In fact, we're once again, more bearish than consensus on the dollar by the middle of next year.Seth Carpenter: Got it. All right. That's super helpful. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.Serena Tang: Always a pleasure, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

How a single predator exposed a centuries-old system built to shield wealthy white men from accountability and forced the country to confront a truth its institutions have long concealed...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast pondering the impact and importance of the newly revealed Epstein evidence. Jeff's dad Joe Smith joins the show for the popular segment "News With My Dad" dissecting the Republican strategies with the Congressional vote to release the Epstein files. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper's former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary's plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood's direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing Reform. Will her calculated risk pay off and how will success be judged?Plus, as ONS migration figures are revised – again – Michael restates his appeal for more reliable data. And how could migration data affect the budget next week?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Cooper, founder and CIO of MAC Alpha Capital Management, stops by The Business Brew to discuss the potential opportunity in international markets. Mark has 20 years of experience in equity investing and almost 9 years in commodity trading, working at top-tier hedge funds and mutual funds with some legendary value investors.Mark's experience prior to founding MAC Alpha Capital Management:Co-Portfolio Manager, First Eagle Investment Management, 2014 to 2019 | International Small Cap Value strategy.Portfolio Manager and Analyst, PIMCO, 2010 to 2014 | Global generalist managing a diversified quantitative U.S. equity fund.Partner and Portfolio Manager, Omega Advisors, 2005 to 2010 | Global industrials, capital goods, and commodities/energy sectors.Analyst, Pequot Capital Management, 2002 to 2004 Portfolio Manager, JP Morgan, 1992 to 2000 | Fixed income, commodities, and foreign exchange asset classes, co-managing a $50 billion notional value portfolio investing in both European and exotic options and managing a $10 billion portfolio focused on long-dated gold and silver.Adjunct Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School, 2004 to 2025| Applied Value InvestingEducation and Credentials:MBA - Columbia Business School 2002 | Bachelor of Science - Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1991. Former US Army officer Former Vice Chairman of Harlem success academy HSA #2 (a charter school) |Co-author of Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond  – Second Edition.Sponsorship InformationThank you to ⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠ for sponsoring the show. DISCOUNT INFO: If you use the affiliate link ⁠⁠⁠⁠fiscal.ai/brew⁠⁠⁠⁠, you will automatically get 2 weeks of Fiscal Pro for Free and if you find that you want to upgrade, my link will get you 15% off any paid plans. About ⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠ is the complete modern data terminal for global equities.The ⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠ platform combines a powerful user experience with all the financial data capabilities that professional investors need. Users get up to 20 years of historical financials for all stocks globally that they can easily chart, compare, or export into their own models. And unlike legacy data terminals where it can take hours or even days, ⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠'s data is updated within minutes of earnings reports. ⁠⁠⁠Fiscal.ai⁠⁠⁠ also tracks all the company-specific Segment & KPI data so you don't have to. Like to track Amazon's Cloud Revenue? They've got it.How about Spotify's premium subscribers? Or Google's quarterly paid clicks?They've got all of it.

Subscribe to the podcastSquare and Cash App have just rolled out some slick features that are perfect for both merchants and holders.Learn about Bitcoin at a trickleBitcoinTrickle.comSponsorLiberty MugsKeep in touch with us everywhere you areJoin our Telegram groupLike us on FacebookFollow us on Twitter: @libertymugs (Rollo), @Slappy_Jones_2Check us out on PatreonLearn everything you need to know about Bitcoin in just 10 hours10HoursofBitcoin.comPodcast version

Meet Dr. Corey Jentry the author of "Selling Sanity: The Troubled-Teen Industry, the Insane Profits, and the Kids Who Pay the Price." A survivor himself with a Ph.D. in Political Science from the London School of Economics, Corey talks about his rough upbringing and his experience at a troubled teen program. He exposes how troubled-teen programs marketed as “help” often cause lasting harm. Corey indicates Millions of our children and there families may be affected by these harmful scams. He's not saying all programs are bad,just that there are the exception not the rule. That you should treat this decision like picking out a college. Dr. Jentry also gives advice if you contact him at his website below for free.Today Cory helps families, educators, and advocates spot red flags, protect kids, and push for real reform—giving listeners the tools to understand and challenge the systems that endanger vulnerable youth.Corey Jentry is a strategic powerhouse at the intersection of healthcare innovation, luxury brand marketing, and organizational leadership. As Founder of The Asclepius Group and Jentry Consulting Services, Corey has spent over seven years architecting transformative growth strategies for clients across healthcare, education, and high-end automotive sectors.Corey's consulting portfolio includes elevating McLaren Beverly Hills to the #1 sales rank in North America, expanding psychiatric facility occupancy by 80%, and cultivating a 150+ member healthcare network that improved patient outcomes by 40% through AI-powered collaboration Corey's Sites:Websites: https://www.jentryconsultingservices.com/ https://www.coreyjentry.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyrjentry/?trk=public_post_follow-view-profile OTR sites:Podcast Website: https://bobadleman.wixsite.com/otrmentalhealthReal Plus Community Ko-Fi.com/otrachieving Mail: OvertheRainbowbob@gmail.comFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/otrachievingmentalhealhfrInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/over_the_rainbow_achieving X: https://twitter.com/overtherain1bowYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChEYTddPDUaiZbFliit1r5Q LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-adleman/This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Allie exposes Texas' rebranded Islamic enclave “The Meadow” — formerly EPIC City — warning of Sharia's creeping dominance in America. She contrasts Islam's conquest ideology with Christianity's gospel of peace, urging bold resistance without fear. Allie also brings attention to the 10-year anniversary of the Bataclan Massacre in France. And amid darkness, Christian music surges, reshaping culture with musicians like Forrest Frank and Brandon Lake. And we also take a look at the shift in priorities between conservatives and progressive men and women when it comes to getting married and raising a family. Even Kelsea Ballerini knows what's going on, as her new single "I Sit in Parks" strikes a chord with women who fell for feminism. Join us to reject toxic empathy, stand for biblical truth, and celebrate God's unstoppable redemption plan. Buy Allie's book "Toxic Empathy: How Progressives Exploit Christian Compassion": https://www.toxicempathy.com --- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:30) The Texas Muslim-Only Compound Rebrands (32:30) A Biblical Response to Islam (40:00) Bataclan Massacre (49:30) The Rise of Christian Music (53:45) Kelsea Ballerini's New Song (01:00:30) Priorities of Young Men & Women --- Today's Sponsors: A'del — Try A'del's hand-crafted, artisan, small-batch cosmetics and use promo code ALLIE 25% off your first time purchase at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AdelNaturalCosmetics.com⁠⁠⁠ Good Ranchers — Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠GoodRanchers.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and subscribe to any of their boxes (but preferably the Allie Beth Stuckey Box) to get free Waygu burgers, hot dogs, bacon, or chicken wings in every box for life. Plus, you'll get $40 off when you use code ALLIE at checkout. Hillsdale College — Hillsdale College is offering more than 40 free online courses they offer on History, Economics, Politics, Philosophy, and more, all available for FREE. Go to Hillsdale.edu/Relatable⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to enroll. Seven Weeks Coffee — Save up to 25% with promo code 'ALLIE' & get up to four FREE gifts this Christmas season: ⁠⁠ SevenWeeksCoffee.com Pre-Born — Will you help rescue babies' lives? Donate by calling #250 & say keyword 'BABY' or go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠PreBorn.com/ALLIE⁠⁠⁠⁠. Keksi Cookies — Send a taste of home this holiday season with Keksi: soft, thick, handcrafted cookies made with the best ingredients. Keksi ships nationwide! Order yours at Keksi.com with code ALLIE15 for 15% off. --- Episodes you might like: Ep 1255 | Jihad vs. Jesus: Islam's Plan to Conquer Christian America | Raymond Ibrahim https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/relatable-with-allie-beth-stuckey/id1359249098?i=1000732327165 Ep 1223 | The Forrest Frank Formula: Why Christian Music is Trending | Dr. Raymond Lynch https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-1223-the-forrest-frank-formula-why-christian-music/id1359249098?i=1000719536332 Ep 1115 | Islam Taught Her to Hate Christians — Then She Became One | Guest: Lily Meschi ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-1115-islam-taught-her-to-hate-christians-then-she/id1359249098?i=1000680609640 --- Buy Allie's book "You're Not Enough (& That's Okay): Escaping the Toxic Culture of Self-Love": https://www.alliebethstuckey.com   Relatable merchandise – use promo code 'ALLIE10' for a discount: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shop.blazemedia.com/collections/allie-stuckey⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How is your brain like an ant colony? They both use simple parts following simple rules which allows the whole to be so much more than the sum of the parts. Listen as neuroscientist and author Gaurav Suri explains how the mind emerges from the neural network of the brain, why habits form, why intuition often knows before language does, and why our post-hoc explanations can mislead us. The conversation then grapples with free will and responsibility without mysticism. Ultimately, Suri remains in awe of the emergent mind and at the end of the conversation makes the case for the essential importance of kindness and forgiveness.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Sitting-in for Thom Hartmann guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast asks with the corrupted governmental abuses of the Trump regime, does the justice system still work for ordinary people? Also we hear the voices of adult survivors of Jeffrey Epstein trafficking abuses in a new video. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

He's tested every limit of decency and democracy, and every time he does the GOP bends a little lower. At this point, the question isn't just about Trump's crimes; it's about their complicity…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomHighest Layoffs in 22 YearsElon's $1 Trillion PaycheckTrump: End the FilibusterShutdown Ends. Taxpayers hardest hit.What the 50 Year Mortgage will do to Americans.Read the full article "Trump Unveils the 50 Year Mortgage" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, Stewart Alsop sits down with Terrence Yang to explore the US economy through the lens of federal net outlays, inflation, and growth, moving into China–US economic and military dynamics, the role of the dollar as a reserve currency, and how China's industrial and open-source AI strategies intersect with US innovation; they also get into Bitcoin's governance, Bitcoin Core maintainers, and what long-term digital scarcity means for money, security, and decentralization. To learn more about Terrence's work, you can find him on LinkedIn.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:00 Stewart and Terrence open with the US economy, federal net outlays, and why confidence matters more than doom narratives. 05:00 They compare debt-to-GDP, discuss budget surpluses, and how the US once grew out of large debt after WWII. 10:00 Terrence explains recurring revenue vs. one-time income, taxes, tariffs, and why sustainable growth is essential. 15:00 Conversation turns to China's strategy, industrial buildup, rare earths, and provincial debt vs. national positioning. 20:00 They explore military power, aircraft carriers, nuclear subs, and how hard power supports reserve currency status. 25:00 Discussion of AI competition among Google, OpenAI, Claude, and China's push for open-source standards. 30:00 Terrence raises concerns about open-source trust, model weights, and parallels with Bitcoin Core governance. 35:00 They examine maintainers, consensus rules, and how decentralization actually works in practice. 40:00 Terrence highlights Bitcoin as digital gold, its limits as money, and why volatility shapes adoption. 45:00 They close on unit of account, long-term holding strategies, and risks of panic selling during cycles.Key InsightsFederal net outlays reveal the real fiscal picture. Terrence Yang emphasizes that looking only at debt-to-GDP misses the deeper issue: the U.S. has run negative net outlays—more cash going out than coming in—for decades. He argues that sustainable recurring revenue, not one-time windfalls or asset sales, is what ultimately stabilizes a nation's finances.Confidence is an economic force of its own. Terrence warns that cultural pessimism can damage the U.S. more than high debt. Drawing parallels to Japan's post-1990 stagnation, he notes that when people stop taking risks, innovation slows and economies ossify. The U.S. thrives on risk-taking, immigration, and entrepreneurial experimentation—and needs to preserve that spirit.Inflation and growth are locked in a difficult balance. The conversation explores how current inflation remains above target while growth feels sluggish, creating a quasi-stagflation environment. Terrence questions whether the Federal Reserve should remain tied to a 2% target or adapt to new conditions, particularly when jobs and productivity remain uneven.China's economic strategy is broad, deliberate, and deeply practical. From inviting Western VCs in the 1990s to absorbing semiconductor know-how and refining rare earth materials, China built an industrial base that now rivals or surpasses U.S. manufacturing in many domains. Yet its provincial and real-estate debt highlight structural weaknesses beneath the surface.The U.S. dollar's dominance rests on military and institutional power. Terrence argues that reserve-currency status persists because the U.S. guarantees open trade routes and global security. Even countries with weak currencies prefer the dollar in black markets. Competitors like BRICS may want an alternative system, but replacing the dollar requires decades, not years.Open-source AI is becoming a geopolitical tool. China's strategy of flooding the world with strong, free, open-source models mirrors Linux's global influence. Terrence notes that trust and transparency matter, since open-source code still requires knowledgeable maintainers who can verify safety, intentions, and alignment. This dynamic is now a competitive front in the AI race.Bitcoin governance is both decentralized and fragile. Terrence explains that Bitcoin Core has very few maintainers and relies on a culture of trust, review, and distributed accountability. While Bitcoin works well as long-term “digital gold,” improvements are incremental, and the small number of developers poses systemic risks. He stresses that understanding governance—not just price—is crucial for anyone serious about Bitcoin's future.

Philip Nash's book Clare Boothe Luce: American Renaissance Woman (Routledge, 2022) is a concise and highly readable political biography that examines the life of one of the most accomplished American women of the 20th century. Wife and mother, author, editor, playwright, political activist, war journalist, Congresswoman, ambassador, pundit, and feminist—Luce did it all. Carefully placing Luce in a series of shifting historical contexts, this book offers the reader an insight into mid-century American political, cultural, gender, and foreign relations history. Eleven primary sources follow the text, including excerpts from Luce's diary, letters, speeches, and published works, as well as a TV talk-show appearance and a critic's diary entry describing an evening with her, helping readers to understand her fascinating life. Together, the narrative and documents afford readers a brief yet in-depth look at Luce with all her complications: glamorous intellectual, acid-tongued diplomat, and feminist conservative, she was a deeply flawed high-achiever who repeatedly challenged the entrenched sexism of her age to become a significant actor in the rise of the “American Century.” Addressing the neglect suffered by women in foreign relations history, this will be of interest to students and scholars of US foreign relations, 20th-century US history, and US women's history. Victoria Phillips is a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in the Department of International History. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Philip Nash's book Clare Boothe Luce: American Renaissance Woman (Routledge, 2022) is a concise and highly readable political biography that examines the life of one of the most accomplished American women of the 20th century. Wife and mother, author, editor, playwright, political activist, war journalist, Congresswoman, ambassador, pundit, and feminist—Luce did it all. Carefully placing Luce in a series of shifting historical contexts, this book offers the reader an insight into mid-century American political, cultural, gender, and foreign relations history. Eleven primary sources follow the text, including excerpts from Luce's diary, letters, speeches, and published works, as well as a TV talk-show appearance and a critic's diary entry describing an evening with her, helping readers to understand her fascinating life. Together, the narrative and documents afford readers a brief yet in-depth look at Luce with all her complications: glamorous intellectual, acid-tongued diplomat, and feminist conservative, she was a deeply flawed high-achiever who repeatedly challenged the entrenched sexism of her age to become a significant actor in the rise of the “American Century.” Addressing the neglect suffered by women in foreign relations history, this will be of interest to students and scholars of US foreign relations, 20th-century US history, and US women's history. Victoria Phillips is a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in the Department of International History. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history

In this episode of Mark & Pete, the boys tackle three stories that prove the world has not yet learned to behave itself. First up: Donald Trump threatens to sue the BBC for billions after an edited clip of his January 6th speech sparks outrage and accusations of media misconduct. We explore what's actually happened, the legal reality behind defamation claims, and why this case matters far beyond the headlines — touching on truth, trust, and the strange modern dance between politicians and broadcasters. Then we head to The Barking Dog, where a pub quiz team has been caught cheating with smartwatches and phones, raising the eternal British question: is nothing sacred, not even general knowledge and the picture round? Mark and Pete unpack how technology, temptation, and a desire to win three pints of lager collide in one very British scandal. Finally, we go global with banana-related trade drama, as U.S. tariffs shift again, affecting countries like Guatemala and Ecuador.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/mark-and-pete--1245374/support.Supporters get updates on new projects and hot takes on the latest news plus Mark and Pete Extra  in depth commentary episodes and Mark and Pete vs AI  comedy episodes. All right here in this podcast feed.  Thank you for your support, welcome to the community.

The Consumer Price Index for October was not released due to the government shutdown. Will the report ever see the light of day? And are there ways to calculate Valley inflation that don't involve this report? Sounds like it's Money Monday once again, and Associate Economics Professor Evan Taylor of the Universtiy of Arizona joined the show to break down these questions. He joins every Monday for Money Monday at 5:45  am. 

In this episode, I talk with Julia Middleton, founder of Women Emerging, about how women everywhere are redefining what it means to lead. Julia shares how her global “expeditions” help women discover their own authentic way of leading and introduces her Four E's framework — Essence, Elements, Expression, and Energy. We explore why traditional models of leadership don't always fit women, how to lead in alignment with who you are, and the courage it takes to lead your way in systems not designed for you.

Responding to  @TimcastIRL  and  @The_Crucible  after they aired a segment on my plural family, linked below.Should Polygamist Families be Welcome at Church? - https://richtidwell.com/should-polygamist-families-be-welcome-at-church/A Letter to the Anglican Church: https://bit.ly/PolygynyLetterOn Plural Marriage: https://richtidwell.com/on-plural-marriage/The Mia & Heis Saga: https://richtidwell.com/mia-and-heis/St. Augustine, On The Good of Marriage: https://www.newadvent.org/fathers/1309.htm"Andrew Wilson Slams Protestant Pastor For Saying Polygamy Is Biblical" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CPYbTjcUhgSTUDIES- Birthrates: https://x.com/richtidwell/status/1989109694481170715- London School of Economics and Political Science: https://www.lse.ac.uk/news/new-study-challenges-claim-polygyny-drives-men-to-civil-war- PNAS polygamy study: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2508091122- Females outnumber men: https://www.medicaldaily.com/female-population-has-always-outnumbered-males-historically-according-our-genes-304428- More Christian women in US then men: https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/gender-composition/woman/- More women in the Church than men: https://www.ncls.org.au/articles/why-are-women-more-religious-than-men/

Philip Nash's book Clare Boothe Luce: American Renaissance Woman (Routledge, 2022) is a concise and highly readable political biography that examines the life of one of the most accomplished American women of the 20th century. Wife and mother, author, editor, playwright, political activist, war journalist, Congresswoman, ambassador, pundit, and feminist—Luce did it all. Carefully placing Luce in a series of shifting historical contexts, this book offers the reader an insight into mid-century American political, cultural, gender, and foreign relations history. Eleven primary sources follow the text, including excerpts from Luce's diary, letters, speeches, and published works, as well as a TV talk-show appearance and a critic's diary entry describing an evening with her, helping readers to understand her fascinating life. Together, the narrative and documents afford readers a brief yet in-depth look at Luce with all her complications: glamorous intellectual, acid-tongued diplomat, and feminist conservative, she was a deeply flawed high-achiever who repeatedly challenged the entrenched sexism of her age to become a significant actor in the rise of the “American Century.” Addressing the neglect suffered by women in foreign relations history, this will be of interest to students and scholars of US foreign relations, 20th-century US history, and US women's history. Victoria Phillips is a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in the Department of International History. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/biography

The Nasdaq ends a second consecutive week in the red with investors awaiting Nvidia results and a delayed U.S. jobs print later this week. German finance minister Lars Klingbeil is in Beijing for talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng to reassess economic ties between the two countries. Switzerland is eyeing major U.S. investments after the Trump administration cut tariffs down to 15 per cent. USTR Jaimeson Greer says the EU's tariffs on U.S. goods remain too high and the bloc was slow in cutting back levies. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Philip Nash's book Clare Boothe Luce: American Renaissance Woman (Routledge, 2022) is a concise and highly readable political biography that examines the life of one of the most accomplished American women of the 20th century. Wife and mother, author, editor, playwright, political activist, war journalist, Congresswoman, ambassador, pundit, and feminist—Luce did it all. Carefully placing Luce in a series of shifting historical contexts, this book offers the reader an insight into mid-century American political, cultural, gender, and foreign relations history. Eleven primary sources follow the text, including excerpts from Luce's diary, letters, speeches, and published works, as well as a TV talk-show appearance and a critic's diary entry describing an evening with her, helping readers to understand her fascinating life. Together, the narrative and documents afford readers a brief yet in-depth look at Luce with all her complications: glamorous intellectual, acid-tongued diplomat, and feminist conservative, she was a deeply flawed high-achiever who repeatedly challenged the entrenched sexism of her age to become a significant actor in the rise of the “American Century.” Addressing the neglect suffered by women in foreign relations history, this will be of interest to students and scholars of US foreign relations, 20th-century US history, and US women's history. Victoria Phillips is a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in the Department of International History. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover how understanding economics can empower everyday Americans. Howard Yaruss joins Betsy Wurzel to explain inflation, Social Security, Medicare, and the financial myths shaping our daily lives.In this enlightening episode of Chatting with Betsy, host Betsy Wurzel talks with Howard Yaruss — economist, professor, attorney, businessman, and author of Understandable Economics. Howard breaks down how our economic system works in simple, practical terms that every American can understand. Together, they explore some of the biggest myths in today's conversations about money, including whether Social Security and Medicare are really “running out of money,” why inflation happens, and what causes shrinkflation.Howard explains why billionaire Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary, how recessions develop, how national debt works, and why consumer spending is the true engine of job creation. Howard believes economic literacy gives people real power to understand policies that affect their daily lives. As he notes, “Our politicians work for us — we are their employers.” Betsy shares that Understandable Economics is the first economics book she has ever read, and she found it eye-opening and easy to understand.Betsy highly recommends it for anyone — high school and up — who wants to understand the world around them in clear, everyday language. Learn more about Howard Yaruss, his book, and his work at his website or on Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

Philip Nash's book Clare Boothe Luce: American Renaissance Woman (Routledge, 2022) is a concise and highly readable political biography that examines the life of one of the most accomplished American women of the 20th century. Wife and mother, author, editor, playwright, political activist, war journalist, Congresswoman, ambassador, pundit, and feminist—Luce did it all. Carefully placing Luce in a series of shifting historical contexts, this book offers the reader an insight into mid-century American political, cultural, gender, and foreign relations history. Eleven primary sources follow the text, including excerpts from Luce's diary, letters, speeches, and published works, as well as a TV talk-show appearance and a critic's diary entry describing an evening with her, helping readers to understand her fascinating life. Together, the narrative and documents afford readers a brief yet in-depth look at Luce with all her complications: glamorous intellectual, acid-tongued diplomat, and feminist conservative, she was a deeply flawed high-achiever who repeatedly challenged the entrenched sexism of her age to become a significant actor in the rise of the “American Century.” Addressing the neglect suffered by women in foreign relations history, this will be of interest to students and scholars of US foreign relations, 20th-century US history, and US women's history. Victoria Phillips is a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in the Department of International History. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sitting-in for Thom Hartmann guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast asks that we have to reestablish some sense of shared morality in America. What is worth talking about with our relatives at Thanksgiving? The coalition of corruption and self-dealing has to lose for the sake of the continued future of the country.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.louiseperry.co.ukMy guest today is Melissa Kearney, Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame and author of ‘The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind.'We spoke about the experience of raising children in a low fertility society, why feminists should care about pronatalism, the cause of the massive recent dec…

Donald Trump's been all over the place with his tariffs, but the US is now bringing in billions of dollars in revenue from them.Months since the tariffs were first announced and after dire warnings from economists, how is the American economy really faring? Today, Penny Goldberg, professor of economics at Yale University, on why the US economy hasn't yet seen a major downturn and the dark clouds in the longer term outlook. Featured:Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Professor of Economics at Yale University and fmr Chief Economist at the World Bank Group

Palden Jenkin in conversation with David Eastaugh  https://penwithbeyond.blog/about/ https://www.palden.co.uk/podcasts.html About Palden I was born in Hartfield in the Ashdown Forest in Sussex in 1950, in a nursing home which not long before had been the American Generals' HQ in Britain in WW2. A fine start. I grew up in 1950s Cardiff, Wales, and in 1960s Liverpool, and here my spiritual path began at age 16, tripping out on acid and beginning to see things in an entirely dfferent way. Went to university at the London School of Economics in 1969 during its time of revolution. I never looked back. This was the big change-point in my life, which set the course for all the rest of it. In today's terminology I was radicalised, thereafter dedicating my life to world change, and personal change with it, though very much tied up with it. Later I lived in the mountains of Snowdonia, Wales, then I had to leave the country in 1974, regarded by the authorities and media as a traitor and even a murderer, to live in Sweden until 1980. I'm really grateful for the safety and healing Sweden gave me. I married a Swedish lady, Berit, and we had two kids and many adventures, partly in Stockholm and partly in the forest in northern Uppland. There, as an English teacher of political refugees, inadvertently I started my later humanitarian work, in which I came to specialise in trauma recovery, social reconstruction and freelance intelligence work in conflict zones. During that time, after seven years' study, I became an astrologer. Since then I have counselled a few thousand people, writing three astrology books and founding the astrology camps in the 1980s. But I didn't easily fit into Sweden and, when I found out I was exonerated of my former alleged crimes, I returned to Britain. This involved a painful end to my marriage and the loss of two children. I landed in Glastonbury and I cried my eyes out with grief for two years in men's groups and therapy groups. This was a big change too, opening me up for something. Then came my instructions and I came alive again. In 1983-84 I started the UK camps movement – first with indoor gatherings in Glastonbury, then with summer camps, at first near Glastonbury, and later round the country. The Glastonbury Camps, spontaneously started and lasting three years, were followed from 1987 by the OakDragon Camps, from both of which many other camps organisations sprouted, in several countries.   By 1990 I was burned out, and there were quite a few people in the OakDragon who wanted to take things a different way. So, sad about that, I left and started again. I  went into book editing with an enlightened publisher called Gateway Books. In 1992 when I was asked to write The Only Planet of Choice – a book of communications from some cosmic beings called the Council of Nine. It was a privilege to write. I was also involved with editing a series of books by and about the Austrian genius Viktor Schauberger, and five books of alternative ideas about Jesus, and lots of other books too, through the 1990s.

Sitting-in for Thom Hartmann is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast. Listeners phone is to discuss the latest political news and strategies for Democratic wins when faced with growing autocracy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Inside Economics team records a rare Saturday podcast. They consider the fallout from the just-ended government shutdown on the broader economy and the economic data.  It's not good, but it ended just before it did serious damage. The team also takes up the Trump administration's pivot to addressing affordability, including scaling back tariffs, most important for the group, those on pasta and bananas.  And they introduce a new regular segment of the podcast – listener questions.  So, keep them coming.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Randy: “We're supposed to believe the central bank manages inflation by using interest rates?" Steve: “It's ridiculous.” L. Randall Wray, one of the original MMT economists, recently wrote a paper with Yeva Nersisyan entitled, No, the Fed is NOT Independent – It is a Creature of Congress. Steve invited Randy for a conversation about how the Federal Reserve is, and always has been, a "creature of Congress," and its supposed independence is a smokescreen that benefits the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us.The Fed has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability, yet it consistently prioritizes the stability of Wall Street over the well-being of Main Street, bailing out banks while leaving workers to face the fallout of manufactured recessions. Randy describes how raising interest rates – the Fed's so-called tool – works to suppress wages by slowing the economy and killing job growth. Federal Reserve transcripts explicitly state that they fear “wage inflation” but see “profit inflation” as desirable.Randy wants Congress to take control of the central bank. (Some of us don't see Congress as independent either.) But whatever our belief in the role of the state and who it serves, the episode contains valuable information on central bank operations, how interest rate hikes discipline labor, the truth about “fighting” inflation, and the difference between monetary and fiscal policy. We need to understand the mechanics of power if we're going to build the future we deserve.L. Randall Wray is a Professor of Economics at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and Emeritus Professor at University of Missouri-Kansas City. He is one of the developers of Modern Money Theory and his newest book on the topic is Understanding Modern Money Theory: Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies (Elgar, 2025).

Alex Imas is the Roger L. and Rachel M. Goetz Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI and a Vasilou Faculty Scholar at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he has taught Negotiations and Behavioral Economics. He is a Faculty Affiliate of the Center for Applied AI and the Human Capital & Economic Opportunity, an NBER Faculty Research Associate, and a CESifo Research Network Fellow. He is also an Associate Editor at the Journal of the European Economic Association and on the editorial board of Psychological Science. Alex studies behavioral economics with a focus on how people understand and mentally represent the choices they are facing. His research explores topics related to how people learn and make choices in settings with risk and uncertainty. He also studies the economics of artificial intelligence and discrimination. Alex's work utilizes a variety of methods, including controlled laboratory experiments, field experiments, analysis of observational data and theoretical modeling. Alex Imas is the recipient of the 2023 Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Review of Financial Studies Rising Scholar Award, the New Investigator Award from the Behavioral Science and Policy Association, the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award from the Society of Judgment and Decision Making, the Distinguished CESifo Affiliate Award, and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. He is the co-author, with Richard Thaler, of The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now (Simon and Schuster, 2025). He is an Associate Editor at the Journal of the European Economic Association and on the editorial board of Psychological Science. Alex was born in Bender, Moldova. Previously, he was the William S. Dietrich II Assistant Professor of Behavioral Economics at Carnegie Mellon University, where he taught Behavioral Economics and Human Judgment and Decision Making. He did his PhD in economics at the University of California, San Diego and earned a BA from Northwestern University. Prior to graduate school, Imas helped found a startup and co-authored several patents as part of its intellectual property strategy. Teaching materials for The Winner's Curse can be found here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, where he leads the Master's Program in International and Development Economics at the University of San Francisco. He is also a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center and an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. He created the unique Master's of Science in Applied Economics at the University of San Francisco, which teaches the conceptual frameworks and practical data analytics skills needed to succeed in the digital economy. Guest interviewer Robizon Khubulashvili is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco. His research is at the intersection of theoretical, behavioral, and experimental microeconomics. A common question in his research is, how can we use a user's revealed preferences to improve the performance of online platforms? Robizon has studied this question in two settings: when monetary incentives are missing (an online gaming platform) and when monetary incentives are present (an online gambling platform). His work suggests that heterogeneity among users is an essential consideration in designing better online platforms; that is, a policy benefiting one type of user might harm the other. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Sitting in for Thom Hartmann is guest-host Jefferson Smith of the Democracy Nerd podcast. Callers react to Epstein's crimes with pathos and understanding of victims of trauma. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From the halls of Mar-a-Lago to the ruins of Ukrainian hospitals, the toxic bond between Trump, Putin, and Epstein may have reshaped the world and cost the lives of countless children…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this week's episode, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney sit down with Mihailo Bozic, a dynamic 25-year-old entrepreneur whose journey from Australia to New York City embodies the classic immigrant founder story. With Serbian roots and a background in Finance and Economics from the University of Western Australia, Mihailo has already launched two impactful startups tackling real-world problems. From his first venture Envited, a social media app revolutionizing student event planning, to his current company Migrate Mate, a job board helping immigrants find visa-sponsored roles in the U.S., Mihailo shares how he bootstrapped his way to $500K ARR in just three months and built a community of over 16,000 job seekers. We dive into: The challenges of startup funding and scaling How viral LinkedIn marketing helped Migrate Mate explode Building a 15M+ follower base from a meme page Lessons from pitching to VCs as an immigrant founder Given the uncertainty surrounding today's labor market, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, evolving U.S. immigration policies, and the shifting landscape of American entrepreneurship, this episode offers timely and thought-provoking insights into the state of the modern U.S. economy. Whether you're an investor, an aspiring entrepreneur, an immigrant chasing opportunity, or simply someone who loves a good hustle story—this conversation is packed with inspiration, practical wisdom, and real-world perspective.

Adam and Cameron discuss the economics of podcasts, a multi-billion dollar industry. And on that topic—twice a year Ones and Tooze conducts a listener support campaign. Please consider supporting the show by following the link below. https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=ATHRTKECVXVE8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Written by Hannah KhalilIn 2040, a Middle Eastern nation is struggling to survive rising temperatures and rolling power cuts. Architect Noura Halim has devoted her life to designing a new kind of city, one that could protect people from the worsening climate and keep her country alive. But as construction begins, the project drains the nation's fragile resources, workers are pushed to breaking point, and her teenage daughter Amal begins to question everything her mother believes in.As tensions rise at home and across the country, Noura must confront the cost of her own ambition and the possibility that her dream of salvation could destroy the very place she's trying to save.Tipping Point was developed through OKRE Experimental Stories supported by Wellcome in consultation with Dr Robert Hughes of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Dr Candice Howarth of the London School of Economics.Cast:Noura . . . . . Nadia Albina Amal . . . . . Eleanor Nawal Steve . . . . . Clive Hayward Mr Felix . . . . . Angus Wright Jamila . . . . . Tanvi Virmani TV Presenter . . . . . Jasmine Hyde Noura's Assistant . . . . . Sasha McCabeProduction co-ordinators: Sara Benaim and Emma Donald Sound design: Sharon Hughes Director: Sasha Yevtushenko

Text us your questions!Is the drive to be better than others making us worse? We talk with theologian Miroslav Volf about his book The Cost of Ambition and explore why comparison-based striving saturates our schools, churches, workplaces, and politics. Volf separates healthy aspiration from superiority-seeking and makes a compelling case for excellence without domination, rooted in agape, i.e., unconditional love that affirms people beyond performance.We dig into the Christ hymn of Philippians 2 and why self-emptying is not weakness but a different kind of strength. Volf shows how resurrection and ascension empower humility rather than feed triumphalism and why honoring everyone is both a spiritual discipline and a democratic necessity. From the academy's “one-up” culture to the marketplace's imitation traps, he argues that obsessing over competitors blinds us to our unique gifts and corrodes joy. Even stalwart capitalists like Warren Buffett warn against competitor-fixation. Volf adds a deeper moral and theological critique as well, drawing on Paul's piercing question: What do you have that you did not receive?We also test his claims against Nietzsche's will to power, happiness research on social comparison, and the rise of Christian nationalism. Is Christ a moral stranger to our priorities? Volf challenges both sides of the aisle to recover mere humanity—Kierkegaard's vision of belovedness before achievement—and to practice agape toward others and ourselves. The result is a bracing, hopeful vision: strive for truth, craft, and contribution, not for status; pursue excellence as stewardship, not self-exaltation.If you're weary of the status treadmill yet still hungry to do meaningful work, this conversation will give you categories, language, and practices to recalibrate your aims. Listen, reflect, and share with someone who needs a healthier way to win. If the episode resonates, subscribe, leave a review, and let us know your thoughts.=====Want to support us?The best way is to subscribe to our Patreon. Annual memberships are available for a 10% discount.If you'd rather make a one-time donation, you can contribute through our PayPal. Other important info: Rate & review us on Apple & Spotify Follow us on social media at @PPWBPodcast Watch & comment on YouTube Email us at pastorandphilosopher@gmail.com Cheers!

Congress may have ended the shutdown (finally), but it's still entangled in a power struggle with the Executive Branch. Kai Ryssdal has thoughts. On the show today, Kai and Kimberly get into what comes next in the shutdown's wake, how the Trump administration's tariff arguments went over at the Supreme Court and what the sliding balance of power in the federal government has to do with the health of the U.S. economy.Here's everything we talked about today:"Court appears dubious of Trump's tariffs" from SCOTUSblog"Trump floats $2,000 tariff rebate checks: Here's what you need to know" from CNBC"Trump claims tariff loss would force $3 trillion ‘unwind'" from Axios"If SCOTUS strikes down President Trump's current tariffs, he has plenty of other options" from Marketplace"How Congress Gave Up Its Own Power" from Time"Senate sinks measure to block military action against Venezuela" from PoliticoJoin us tomorrow for “Economics on Tap.” The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas.

SHOW 11-12-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1930 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT CHINA'S LEADERSHIP. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Allied AI Competition and Submarine Requests. Scott Harold examines the crucial role of allies Japan and South Korea in the AI competition against China. Japan is developing locally tailored AI models built on US technology for use in Southeast Asia. South Korea aims to become the third-largest AI power, offering reliable models to counter China's untrustworthy technology. Harold also discusses South Korea's surprising request for nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines to track Chinese and North Korean vessels, signaling a greater public willingness to contribute to China deterrence. 915-930 Rare Earths Monopoly and US Strategy. General Blaine Holt discusses China's challenge to the US and its allies regarding rare earths, noting that China previously threatened to cut off supply. The US is securing deals with partners like Australia and is on track to replace China entirely, despite initial processing reliance on Chinese predatory practices. Holt suggests a two-year recovery is conservative, as technology for domestic processing exists. He also notes China's leadership is in turmoil, trying to buy time through trade deals. 930-945 Russian Economic Stagnation and War Finance. Michael Bernstam confirms that the Russian economy is stagnating, expecting no growth for years due to exhausted resources and reliance on military production. Oil and gas revenues are down significantly due to Western sanctions and high discounts, widening the budget deficit. Russia is increasing taxes, including the VAT, which drives inflation in staples. This economic pain damages the popularity of the war by hurting the low-income population—the primary source of military recruitment. 945-1000 Buckley, Fusionism, and Conservative Integrity. Peter Berkowitz explores William F. Buckley's consolidation of the conservative movement through "fusionism"—blending limited government and social conservatism. Buckley purged the movement of anti-Semites based on core principles. Berkowitz uses this historical context to analyze the controversy surrounding Tucker Carlson giving a platform to Nick Fuentes, who openly celebrates Stalin and Hitler. This incident caused division after the Heritage Foundation's president, Kevin Roberts, defended Carlson, prompting Roberts to issue an apology. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election, 1015-1030 Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability. Simon Constable analyzes rare earth markets, noting China's dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up, indicating high demand. Constable also discusses UK political instability, noting that Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer lacks natural leadership and confidence. The major political driver for a potential leadership change is the party's broken promise regarding income taxes, which severely undermines public trust before the next election 1030-1045 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. 1045-1100 Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Philippine Missile Deployment to Deter China. Captain Jim Fanell reports that the Philippines unveiled its first operational BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile battery in western Luzon to deter Chinese aggression. This supersonic missile system, part of the $7.2 billion Reorizon 3 modernization program, gives the Philippines "skin in the game" near disputed waters like Scarborough Shoal. The deployment signifies a strategy to turn the Philippines into a "porcupine," focusing defense on the West Philippine Sea. The systems are road-mobile, making them difficult to target. 1115-1130 AI, Cyber Attacks, and Nuclear Deterrence. Peter Huessy discusses the challenges to nuclear deterrence posed by AI and cyber intrusions. General Flynn highlighted that attacks on satellites, the backbone of deterrence, could prevent the US from confirming where a launch originated. Huessy emphasizes the need to improve deterrence, noting that the US likely requires presidential authorization for retaliation, unlike potential Russian "dead hand" systems. The biggest risk is misinformation delivered by cyber attacks, although the US maintains stringent protocols and would never launch based solely on a computer warning. 1130-1145 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. 1145-1200 Sudan Civil War, Global Proxies, and Nigerian Violence. Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio analyze the civil war in Sudan between the SAF and the RSF, noting both factions commit atrocities, including massacres after the capture of El Fasher. The conflict is fueled by opposing global coalitions: the UAE and Russia support the RSF, while Iran, Egypt, and Turkey back the SAF. The Islamic State has called for foreign jihadis to mobilize. Weiss also addresses the complicated violence in Nigeria, differentiating jihadist attacks on Christians from communal farmer-herder conflict. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Corruption, Chinese Influence, and Protests in Serbia. Ivana Stradner discusses protests in Serbia demanding accountability one year after a canopy collapse killed 16 people, with investigations linking the accident to high-level corruption involving a Chinese company. Leader Vučić suppresses discontent by alleging the West is plotting a "color revolution." Although Vučić aligns his heart with Russia and China, he needs EU money for political survival, prompting him to offer weapons to the West and claim Serbia is on the EU path. 1215-1230 The Muslim Brotherhood and Its Global Network. Cliff May discusses the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the progenitor of Hamas, founded in 1928 after the Ottoman Caliphate's abolition. The MB's goal is to establish a new Islamic empire. Qatar is highly supportive, hosting Hamas leaders, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia have banned the MB. Turkish President Erdoğan is considered MB-adjacent and sympathetic, supporting Hamas and potentially viewing himself as a future Caliph, despite Turkey being a NATO member. 1230-1245 Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator. 1245-100 AM Commercial Space Records and Political Impacts on NASA. Bob Zimmerman covers new records in commercial space: SpaceX achieved 147 launches this year, and one booster tied the Space Shuttle Columbia for 28 reuses. China also set a record with 70 launches but had a failure. Commercial space faced temporary impacts, such as an FAA launch curfew due to a government shutdown and air traffic controller shortages. Zimmerman speculates that Jared Isaacman's conservative-leaning public appearance at Turning Point USA might have convinced Trump to renominate him for NASA Administrator.

Austrian Economics, Von Mises, and the Fight Against Interventionism. Carola Binder discusses the Austrian School of Economics, highlighting its focus on free markets and Ludwig von Mises's opposition to government "interventionism," including rent and price controls. Mises argued these policies distort markets, leading to shortages and inefficiency. Binder emphasizes Mises's belief that economic literacy is a primary civic duty necessary for citizens to reject socialism and interventionist panaceas, especially as new generations are exposed to such ideas. 1940

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

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