Podcasts about Economics

Between rising unemployment and a shrinking supply of entry level jobs, it seems like the job market's on everyone's mind. On this week's TLDR, how AI has changed the process of getting a job — and why no one seems too happy about it. Plus, over its 250 year history, industrial capitalism has offered humanity some huge advances — along with a huge number of critics. New Yorker writer John Cassidy, author of the new book Capitalism and Its Critics: A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI, explains.This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman, business reporter Sarah Rieger and former hedgefunder Matthew Karasz, with an appearance by journalist John Cassidy. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldrThe TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss the new spending bill going through the House, the hypocrisy of many "America First" republicans, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Blackout Coffee - https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/problemCrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpSmall Batch Cigar - https://www.smallbatchcigar.com/ Use code PROBLEM for 10% offPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss the the covid vaccine no longer being suggested for healthy children by the CDC, the proposed ceasefire that was halted by Israel, and more.Support Our Sponsors:American Financing - 866-886-2026AmericanFinancing.net/DaveNMLS 182334, www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgMonetary Metals - https://www.monetary-metals.com/potp/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Live from the Morgan Stanley Luxury Conference in Paris, our analysts Arunima Sinha and Eduoard Aubin discuss the economic and consumer trends shaping demand for luxury goods.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Eduoard Aubin: And I'm Eduoard Aubin, Head of the Luxury Goods team.Arunima Sinha: This episode was recorded last week when we were at the annual Morgan Stanley Luxury Conference in Paris. In it, we bring you an overview of what we heard from companies and investors about the hottest trends in the luxury industry.It's Tuesday, May 27th at 8am in Paris.For several years now, the luxury industry has been riding a post pandemic boom. And the top luxury brands experience 80 percent or greater sales growth between 2019 and [20]24. So Ed, is this trend going to continue or has it started to moderate and why?Eduoard Aubin: No, it has already started to moderate clearly last year. So, the growth rates of some of the leading luxury good brands, you know, over the past, four or five years, was clearly double digit CAGR growth.What we've seen in 2024 – is the market, luxury goods market worldwide has already started to contract. It was very moderate, about 2-3 percent. But it's very unusual because over the past 30 years, the market has contracted only once or twice. So, it started last year already. But we think it's going to, you know, accelerate; the decline could be even a bit more significant this year to low to mid single digit.And there are a number as to – of reasons as to why the market has luxury goods market has moderated. First of all, there's been post-COVID; post pandemic. There's been a wallet shift away from ownership of goods to more spend on experiences such as travel, restaurants, dining out, et cetera.The other thing is that you had a lot of, you know, closets, which were full post the pandemic. People were at home, disposable income was high and there were certainly a lot of, you know, purchase, which was done during the pandemic. And then, and we'll talk about it in a second, there is also this view that maybe luxury good companies have increased prices maybe a bit touch excessively during the pandemic; and potentially pricing out the middle income consumer.Arunima Sinha: This is an incredible conference and we've been talking to a lot of corporates and we've been talking to a lot of investors. What are some of the key debates that you've been hearing about?Eduoard Aubin: So I mean, front and center, it's what's going on in terms of the – from a macro standpoint – in terms of the key, two key markets for the luxury good sector, which are China and the U.S., to put things in perspective, and we look at it on a nationality standpoint here rather than a geographic standpoint.The reason is that there is a lot of cross-border shopping, which is done when it comes to luxury. The Chinese nationals account for about a third of total demand, total spend on the luxury goods market, 32-33 percent. So, they are the number one nationality today, clearly. The number two is the Americans, which account for, who account for about 21-22 percent of the spend.So, combined that's more than 50 percent of the spend and certainly more than supposedly 50 percent of the growth over the next three to five years. So clearly a lot of focus on these two nationalities. What's going on in terms of the wealth effect in China and in the U.S.? What's going on in terms of the health of the middle-income consumer in China and in the U.S.?The other debate related to that is what's going on in terms of international travel? What we've heard from companies during the conference is that there are certainly less Americans now coming to Europe, in this quarter, in the second quarter, and this had been a key driver of the spend over the past few months partially related to the currency.There is also; there are also less Chinese going to Japan, which was also a key – a factor of growth for the industry. Chinese spend about 30 percent of their total spend outside of China, and Japan was the number one market in terms of spend for them in recent years ahead of Europe.And what we've seen and what we heard from the companies attending the conference is that these two nationalities are spending less abroad, which is why we think, the second quarter sales could be a bit under pressure more than in the first quarter.The other debate is about, you know, the middle-income consumers we talked about. Luxury brands have raised prices quite a bit. For some of them they doubled the sales price of the items during the pandemic. And again, there is a debate about the fact that they might have been pricing out the middle-income consumer. And obviously that has come at the time where the discretionary spend of the middle-income consumer, you know, the aspirational customer, has been under pressure.So, it's kind of a double whammy in terms of the propensity of this cohort to spend on luxury goods and for the sector to grow in the medium- to long-term, it cannot just rely on millionaires and billionaires. It has to increase; to recruit, from the middle class. That has been the one of the gross engines of this industry over the past 10, 20, 30 years.And so that's certainly one of the key debate is – when will the products become affordable again? The challenge for the luxury goods company is that you can; there is a cardinal rule in luxury. You can never lower your prices. So, what you can do is you can play a bit with the mix, or you can wait for the discretionary spend to increase and make your product more affordable.But obviously that takes some time. So, these are some of the key debates, you know, that have been discussed at the conference.So Arunima, let's shift our focus from macro to micro concerns. So, we've been talking a lot about the economic outlook, uncertainty around tariffs and currency markets on this podcast. Will these factors hurt luxury consumption?Arunima Sinha: So, this is great timing Ed, because we just published our economics outlooks the global, the U.S., and for other regions. And our basic view is that tariffs, both the levels, the uncertainty around them are going to weigh on growth around the world. They're going to weigh on U.S. consumers quite specifically because here now you have a couple of different ways that tariffs will matter.One, for the general consumer, it's going to be higher prices; so you drive up prices, you're going to drive down real spending. And so, we do have our real spending moderating across the forecast horizon. We go down almost a full two percentage points by the end of [20]25 relative to where we were in 2024. With respect to how we think about consumers spending on discretionary items, we think of labor income being an important factor. We think of wealth; supportive wealth effects and that you already mentioned. And then we also think about just how consumers are feeling uncertain about their prospects for the economy and so on.So, with respect to luxury consumption, we think that it is the last two factors, the supportive wealth effects and how uncertainty was playing out, that's going to matter. So, between 2020 and [20]24, the United States saw some of the largest increases in net worth for U.S. households. So, U.S. households saw $51 trillion in additional net worth being created over this period; that was more than what they saw over the prior decade.And from this 51 trillion pool, about 70 percent went to the top 20 percent of the income cohort, so that's $35 trillion. So, these guys were feeling very positively supported by wealth. And the other factor in this is that it was really tied to financial wealth because that's where we saw some of the largest increases as well.And so, how do we think it's going to weigh on luxury consumers? To the extent that we may not see these very large increases in wealth going forward, given where equity markets, the ride that they've seen over this past year, so far. If we don't have these very large increases in financial wealth, we may not have very large increases in planned consumption for this particular cohort.And so that's driving some of our forecast about the moderation and overall consumption, but it will also translate into just growth for luxury consumption. And the other aspect, of course is uncertainty. So, we do think that there's going to be some resolution of tariff uncertainty this year, but there are other factors in the U.S. that are weighing on policy uncertainty. So where is the fiscal bill going to go? How is immigration going to solve out? So, all of these factors are weighing on the consumer, and they may also be weighing very well on luxury consumption.Great talking with you Ed, we could all find little ways of incorporating luxury in our lives and this conference has really just been an incredible experience. So, thank you and thank you for taking the time to talk with me today.Eduoard Aubin: Great speaking with you, ArunimaArunima Sinha: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review when you'll listen and share with the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

DAMIONLet's start with a softball: Tesla's Europe sales plunge 49% on brand damage, rising competition. Who Do You Blame?ElonLiberals Who Hate ElonTrump 2.0The Tesla board (I'm looking at you Robyn and Kimbal)Apathetic Tesla investorsNobody. Share price is king. MMISS backs Dynavax directors in board fight with Deep Track CapitalDeep Track Capital, which is Dynavax's second largest shareholder with a nearly 15% stake, is pushing on with a proxy fight and wants new directors to prioritize development of the company's hepatitis B vaccine instead of pursuing new acquisitions."Vote for all four management nominees," ISS wrote in a note to clients that was seen by Reuters. "The dissident has failed to present a compelling case that change is necessary at this meeting."Despit that "There has been a stall in momentum" and that "the market has in no way rebuked the company's strategy" even though Dynavax's stock price has fallen 18% over the last 12 months.Who Do you Blame?ISS, for an inability to articulate big ideas with data.Dynavax's current board knowledge profile: while pretty balance overall with science-y stuff like Medicine and Dentistry (14%); Biology (15%) along with a reasonable amount og Economics and Acounting (12%), the board notably lacks Sales and Marketing (0%).Deep Track Capital nominee probably fits that bill: an experienced drug development and commercialization professional most as interim CEO/COO at Lykos Therapeutics, including overseeing the commercialization of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine and marketing and sales at Sanofi PasteurISS, again, for ignoring the presence of 15-year director and Nominating Committee chair Daniel Kisner. Why is this guy allowed to maintain dominance over the selection of new directors?Especially consider the presence of fellow long-tenured director Francis Cano on the committee who is 80 and has served for 16 yearsCano had 29% votes against in 2018, but then only 4% in 2021 and 8% in 2024 The board's atrocious lack of annual elections. While the company celebrities the appointments of two new directors in early 2025, one of them, Emilio Emini, will not be up for shareholder review until the 2027 AGMCan I blame DeepTrack (14%), BlackRock (17%), Vanguard (7%), and State Street (6%) = 44%PepsiCo Is Pushing Back its Climate Goals. The Company Wants to Talk About ItPepsiCo said Thursday it pushed back by a decade its goal to achieve net-zero emissions from 2040 to 2050, as well as a handful of delays on plastic packaging goals, to name a few of the shiftsJim Andrew, chief sustainability officer, said PepsiCo's ability to make progress at the rate it would like to “is very very dependent on the systems around us changing.” He added the “world was a very different place” when it was working on these goals in 2020 amid a completely different political and regulatory landscape.Who Do You Blame?Pepsi's very large board of 15 directorsmost governance experts and research converge around an ideal range of 7 to 11 directors. Which really means 9?Beyond 11, boards often suffer from slower decision-making and diluted accountability.Pepsi's completely protected class of directorsAccording to MSCI data: no current director has received more than 9% votes against since the 2015 AGM. Average support is over 97%Despite hitting .400 overall (peers hit .581): .396 carbon (vs. 473) and .180 on controversies (vs. 774)The fact that the company is named Pepsico and not Pepsi which is kinda irritatingPepsi's Gender Influence Gap of -11%In fact, of the top 7 most influential directors, 6 are men with 68% aggregate influenceThe woman is Dina Dublon (11%), the former CFO at JPMorgan Chase, who has been on the board for two decades. I guess her experience as a director on the Westchester Land Trust is not enough to sway the gentlemen.The Land Trust is chaired by Wyndham Hotels director Bruce Churchill, whose experience at DirectTV must really be crucial in the protection of the natural resources of Westchester CountyWhat Makes a Great Board Director? It's Hard to Define, but It Has Rarely Been More Crucial. Who Do you Blame?The WSJ for still failing to define it appropriately despite being the effing WSJ!Proxy advisory firms, for not having the data that could better inform shareholdersThe SEC/listing exchanges for not requiring data that could better inform shareholdersEvery person in the world who does not use Free Float Analytics data2025 U.S. Proxy Season: Midseason Review Finds Sharp Drop in Shareholder Resolutions on BallotTrump 2.0Darren Woods and ExxonThe anti-ESG shareholder proponents for depressing us with their political theaterApathetic investorsMATTBall CFO to depart after less than 2 years in roleHoward Yu: The departure is not related to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its accounting practices, financial statements, internal controls, or operations.Because everyone leaves in less than 2 years when they're happy? Who do we blame!:Ball's Audit Committee - only 29% of company influence, but maybe they're too busy to pay attention to the CFO at all? We know audit committee roles are hugely time consuming, so Cathy Ross (ex CFO FedEx) on two audit public audit committees, John Bryant (ex CEO of Kellogg) on FOUR audit committees, Michael Cave (ex Boeing exec from 787 Max days) on just Ball audit, and Todd Penegor (current CEO of Papa Johns) on THREE boards AND an acting CEOBall's Nominating Committee - 48% of company influence, maybe they suck at their jobs? Stuart Taylor, who's been on the board since 1999, Dune Ives, Aaron Erter, and… Cathy Ross and John Bryant, also on the audit committeeHoward Yu, who departed unrelated to “any disagreement with the Company” on anything he actually did thereCEOCathy Ross and John Bryant93% of U.S. Executives Desire Board Member ReplacementsOld people: There are 14,440 non executive directors in the US on boards with an average age of 63 years old and 2,569 executive directors with an average age of 58.298 companies in the US have at least ONE director over the age of 80. Directors over the age of 80 have on average 9% influence on the board and on average 19 years of tenure - old and no one actually listens to them.Two US directors - Tommy Thomson (82 years young) and John Harrington (87 years young) are on THREE boards eachMeyer Luskin is 100 years old on the OSI Systems board - he is UCLA class of 1949 and has 6% influence after 35 years on the boardMilton Cooper is 95 years old on TWO boards - Getty Realty and Kimco Realty, where he has 53 and 34 years of tenureImagine being a 58 year old CEO and chair of your board and showing up to have to listen to John Harrington and Meyer LuskinOutlandishly outsized influencersOf 24,000 US directors, 591 have more than 50% influence on their boards. Those boards average 7 other people - is there a point to those 7? Connected directors hating on unconnected directorsThere are 575 directors on boards who are connected to 50% or more of the board… A fun example - at Target, 92% of the directors are connected through other boards or trade associations - that's 11 out of 12 directors. Do you think the board just hates Dave Abney for having no obvious connections to them?Shrill womenThere are 7,450 female directorships on US public boards596 have advanced degrees from elite schools80 of them are non executives at widely held corporations with no ties to the company or family with zero known connections to the existing board membersDon't the other directors just wish they weren't there being smart asses?Meta Buys 650 MW of Renewable Energy to Power U.S. Data CentersAES, the woke Virginia based energy company with 5 women and 6 men on the board where 63% of the board has advanced degrees and four of the board members aren't even AmericanArkansas, the woke state that allowed solar energy to get built thereMeta AI, because AI can't even discriminate against renewable energy because it's so wokeMark Zuckerberg, the dual class dropout dictatorMark Zuckerberg, the government ass kisser, MAGA convert, and attendee at the oil state Qatari meetup with Trump who set up this purchase, like, BEFORE the world hated woke, so it's not his fault because he's REALLY super into oil and stuff

Mississippi is richer than France. No, really. The poorest U.S. state now has a higher GDP per person than France, the U.K., Italy, and Spain. How did that happen? Don't miss this eye-opening episode with George Mason University's Tyler Cowen. 

In episode 124, we are joined by Congressman Greg Landsman, who helps us break down Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” AKA the “Big Bullshit Bill”. Shoutout to the Congressman for being the FIRST federal-level elected official to be on United SHE Stands!Representative Greg Landsman is a father and husband who is proud to call Southwest Ohio home. Before joining the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023, Greg served on the Cincinnati City Council for five years where he led investments in public safety and core services. Greg also led the effort to establish the City of Cincinnati's first-ever Office of Ethics and Good Government as well as the Balanced Development Scorecard to increase trust in local government and transparency in the development process.Greg has spent his entire career advocating for children and families, especially those most marginalized. Prior to his time in elected office, Greg was a public school teacher and worked in education advocacy as the Executive Director of the Strive Partnership.Greg also served as the Director of Faith-based and Community Initiatives under former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland. There, he led Ohio's efforts to help local churches and synagogues provide education and food programs in their communities.A pragmatic leader, Greg has a long history of working with broad, bipartisan coalitions to get good, meaningful things done. In 2016, Greg led a successful ballot measure to pass the Cincinnati Preschool Promise, a program which provides two years of quality preschool education for every three- and four-year-old in Cincinnati. In 2018, he built a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, labor organizations, business leaders, and community members to pass the largest investment in transportation and infrastructure in Hamilton County's history.Greg earned a bachelor's degree in Economics and Political Science from Ohio University and a master's degree in Theology from Harvard University. Greg and his wife, Sarah, live in Cincinnati with their two children, Maddie and Elijah.Resources:* Greg Landsman* Greg Landsman - Congress website* X/Twitter* Instagram* TikTok* Bluesky* LinktreeConnect with USS:* Substack* Instagram* TikTokThis episode was edited by Kevin Tanner. Learn more about him and his services here:* Website* Instagram Get full access to United SHE Stands at www.unitedshestands.com/subscribe

My guest on this episode of the podcast is Brian Albrecht, the Chief Economist at the International Center for Law and Economics (ICLE). Brian holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota and is an expert on antitrust and consumer protection.In this episode, Brian and I deliberate on the importance and application of antitrust law, as well as the current state of antitrust enforcement in the United States. Among other topics, we discuss:The purpose of antitrust enforcement;The tools that exist to combat monopoly abuses;The Neo-Brandesian worldview;How FTC Chair Ferguson may approach antitrust differently from his predecessor, Lina Khan;Why tariffs are disruptive to an economy;Why the impact of tariffs tends to be underestimated (see this post and this post from Brian for more on the economic dynamics of tariffs).Thanks to the sponsors of this week's episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user's real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

How much of our success or failure is written in our genes? How much is under our control? Is it nature or nurture or is that dichotomy too simplistic? Hear EconTalk's Russ Roberts and psychologist Paul Bloom discuss why the nature vs. nurture question is actually worth taking seriously and how by understanding it we can help ourselves and others.

Daniel Priestley is an entrepreneur, speaker, and author. We've seen more change in business over the last 10 years than in the 50 before it. From the rise of artificial intelligence to a total cultural reset. how do you adapt to the current landscape, and what timeless truths still drive lasting success? Expect to learn about the current state of the UK, what Daniel learned about his discussion with Gary's Economics, the process for taking your business form $0 to $1M per month, how to get from $0 to $10k per month first, how to charge more for you business and how to sell it, where Daniel finds his source of happiness, which aspects of your business you should outsource to AI and much more… Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get 35% off your first subscription on the best supplements from Momentous at https://livemomentous.com/modernwisdom Get 5 Free Travel Packs, Free Liquid Vitamin D, and more from AG1 at https://ag1.info/modernwisdom Get up to $350 off the Pod 5 at https://eightsleep.com/modernwisdom Get the best bloodwork analysis in America at https://functionhealth.com/modernwisdom Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Daniel Bunn is the president and CEO of the Tax Foundation. In Daniel's first appearance on the show, he discusses the history of tax models, the threat that tariffs make to the US economy, where we currently stand with budget reconciliation, how he would fix the tax code if he was president, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 2nd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Daniel on X: @DanielBunn Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:01) – Daniel's Background and the Tax Foundation (00:03:35) – Tax Foundation's Model (00:7:38) – History of Tax Models (00:14:26) – Fiscal Condition of the United States (00:19:24) – Tariffs and Revenue (00:35:55) – Budget Resolution (00:45:43) – Daniel's Proposed Solutions (00:49:10) – Outro

We couldn't miss the Avalanche Summit where we sat down with Emin Gün Sirer, co-founder & CEO of Ava Labs, to discuss the evolution of Avalanche's ecosystem and how HyperSDK ushers in a scalable, interoperable, multi-chain future. Join us for a fascinating discussion on Avalanche's approach to decentralisation, scalability & interoperability, and learn why real-world applicability relies heavily on bespoke blockchain solutions.Topics covered in this episode:Gün x Epicenter bromanceHow the Avalanche ecosystem & community evolvedThe future vision for AvalancheScaling Avalanche and the HyperSDKInteroperability and the multi-chain futureDecentralising Avalanche L1sUse cases and institutional adoptionOn-chain privacyAvaCloudThe impact of AI in cryptoGün's focus in the near futureEpisode links:Emin Gun Sirer on XAvalanche on XAva Labs on XSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.ioChorus One: one of the largest node operators worldwide, trusted by 175,000+ accounts across more than 60 networks, Chorus One combines institutional-grade security with the highest yields at - chorus.oneThis episode is hosted by Brian Fabian Crain.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomBig Beautiful Budget in TroubleMoody's Downgrades $36 Trillion of DebtStudent Loan Delinquencies Soar 700%Biden's 1 Million Fake JobsJapan Bond Markets "Implode"Read the full article “Japan Bond Markets Implode” at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Lead Sponsor: UnchainedKeep your Bitcoin safe and minimize your taxes. Open a Bitcoin IRA and get the first year free!Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

Times of chaos and uncertainty do have an uncomfortable but necessary side effect of focusing one's mind both on what is important and what is within one's control. This is certainly true in the zoom rooms and boardrooms of any company in commerce. For our guest Colin Kaster, President of Strategy, Digital Advertising, and Operations at Equity Commerce, an e-commerce agency optimizing Amazon and omnichannel sales, much of the answers lie in understanding the real unit economics of every SKU you sell and then optimizing your business around where the opportunities for maximum profitability lie.

Nixon rewarded Vietnam to keep the war going during the election- Reagan paid Iran to hold on to the hostages- the Bushes lied us into useless wars- and now we have the kleptocrat-in-chief-- why can't Democrats get the message out about who Republican presidents really are?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is hard to imagine life without sunglasses. So, who came up with the idea – and when? We begin this episode by going way back to the very first pair of sunglasses and I'll reveal how our modern-day sunglasses came about not all that long ago. ago. http://www.glasseshistory.com/glasses-history/history-of-sunglasses/ We have all felt that sense of wonder. It's that feeling you get when you first see the Grand Canyon or an incredible sunset or the stars above against a really dark sky. Sadly, we often lose our sense of wonder as we get older. Still, your sense of wonder is worth holding on to and developing further, according to Monica Parker. She has spent many years helping people discover how to lead lives full of wonder. Monica is author of the book The Power of Wonder (https://amzn.to/3I5F5Y4). Listen as she explains the amazing benefits of finding wonder in your world. What is money and how does it work? It may seem like a simple question yet, there is a lot of misunderstanding about it. One example is that some people worry about the federal government running out of money. What if the government can't pay its bills? Well, that can't happen according to L. Randall Wray, a professor of Economics at Bard College, Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute and author of Money for Beginners: An Illustrated Guide (https://amzn.to/42BuPPG). Listen as he discusses how money works, how it has changed and what the future of money is. Some people claim they can get by on 4 or 5 hours of sleep? Really? What happens when people who sleep very little are tested against people who get a good night's sleep? Listen as I explain what happens to people who try to perform on very little sleep. https://www.restoringhealth.center/how-many-hours-of-sleep-do-you-actually-need PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! MINT MOBILE: Ditch overpriced wireless and get 3 months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://MintMobile.com/something⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ! FACTOR: Eat smart with Factor! Get 50% off at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://FactorMeals.com/something50off⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TIMELINE: Get 10% off your order of Mitopure!  Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Timeline.com/SOMETHING⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ROCKET MONEY: Cancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster! Go to ⁠⁠https://RocketMoney.com/SOMETHING⁠⁠ QUINCE: Elevate your shopping with Quince! Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Quince.com/sysk⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns! INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ right now! DELL: The power of Dell AI with Intel inside is transforming the world of pro sports! For the players and the fans who are there for every game. See how Dell Technologies with Intel inside can help find your advantage, and power your wins at ⁠⁠⁠https://Dell.com/Wins⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oklahoma lawmakers are requiring schools to teach Trumpian lies about the 2020 election, among other right-wing talking points. Plus - Thom reads from 'A Castle in Wartime: One Family, Their Missing Sons, and the Fight to Defeat the Nazis' by Catherine Bailey.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Yascha Mounk and Paul Krugman also explore whether the Euro was a mistake. Paul Krugman is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He was a columnist for The New York Times from 2000 to 2024. In 2008, Krugman was the sole winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to new trade theory and new economic geography. In this week's conversation, Yascha Mounk and Paul Krugman discuss the value of economic models, the Euro crisis, and how to make a fruitful intellectual contribution in economics. Podcast production by Jack Shields and Leonora Barclay. Connect with us! ⁠Spotify⁠ | ⁠Apple⁠ | ⁠Google⁠ X: ⁠@Yascha_Mounk⁠ & ⁠@JoinPersuasion⁠ YouTube: ⁠Yascha Mounk⁠, ⁠Persuasion⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠Persuasion Community Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Carney, Breitbart News Editor,             Economics and Finance; Co-Author of the Breitbart Business Digest EJ Antoni, Economist and Senior Fellow             at Unleash Prosperity Research Fellow at Heritage Foundation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Myron Scholes is the Frank E. Buck Professor of Finance, Emeritus at Stanford Graduate School of Business. Myron was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for his groundbreaking work in Options Theory. I want to learn from Myron about why AI needs to work with humans due to uncertainty and the importance of exceptions. Myron is an investor and on the board of a robotics company that focuses on installing solar panels in the desert where laborers don't want to work. I want to hear about the challenges that robots have in these kinds of assignments and how AI can improve their performance. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

Episode Summary: In this episode, Scott Elias, Vice President of Policy & Market Development at CleanCapital, shares expert insights on CleanCapital's investment strategy, his background in clean energy policy, and the fast-moving developments in Washington, D.C. surrounding the fight to protect the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Scott breaks down the potential implications of proposed changes to the Inflation Reduction Act, highlights which states are leading the charge in clean energy growth, and explores the growing investor interest in solar + storage portfolios.  Read Scott's latest take on the proposed tax bill that could significantly impact clean energy investment in the U.S.: Defending American Energy Dominance – CleanCapital   Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy and he is also an advisor for several solar startup companies.  He has extensive project origination, development, and financial experience in the renewable energy industry and in the environmental commodities market.   This includes initial site evaluation, permitting, financing, sourcing equipment, and negotiating the long-term energy and environmental commodities off-take agreements. He manages due diligence processes on land, permitting, and utility interconnection and is in charge of financing and structuring through Note to Proceed (“NTP”) to Commercial Operation Date (“COD”). Benoy composes teams suitable for all project development and construction tasks. He is also involved in project planning and pipeline financial modeling. He has been part of all sides of the transaction and this allows him to provide unique perspectives and value. Benoy has extensive experience in financial engineering to make solar projects profitable. Before founding Reneu Energy, he was the SREC Trader in the Project Finance Group for SolarCity which merged with Tesla in 2016.  He originated SREC trades with buyers and co-developed their SREC monetization and hedging strategy with the senior management of SolarCity to move into the east coast markets.  Benoy was the Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners which is a national solar installer where he focused on project finance solutions for commercial scale solar projects.  He also worked for Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund, where he analyzed potential investments in renewable energy projects and worked on maximizing the financial return of the projects in the portfolio.  Benoy also worked on the sale of all of the renewable energy projects in Ridgewood's portfolio.   He was in the Energy Structured Finance practice for Deloitte & Touche and in Financial Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young.  Benoy received his first experience in Finance as an intern at D.E. Shaw & Co., which is a global investment firm with 37 billion dollars in investment capital. He has a MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from the Stern School of Business at New York University.  Benoy was an Alumni Scholar at the Stern School of Business.  Scott Elias Scott Elias is the Vice President of Government Affairs at CleanCapital, where he leads the company's federal and state policy strategy to accelerate clean energy deployment across the United States. With over a decade of experience in renewable energy policy, Scott plays a pivotal role in advocating for legislation that supports clean energy investment and innovation. Before joining CleanCapital, Scott held senior policy and advocacy roles at the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and other leading organizations, where he worked closely with lawmakers, regulators, and industry stakeholders to shape impactful energy policy. At CleanCapital, Scott helps ensure that the company stays ahead of policy trends and capitalizes on emerging opportunities—particularly around the Inflation Reduction Act, tax equity structures, and energy storage integration. His deep understanding of the intersection between finance, policy, and technology positions him as a key voice in advancing the transition to a low-carbon economy. Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: info@reneuenergy.com  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com   Scott Elias Website:  https://cleancapital.com/ Linkedin:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-elias/ Email:  selias@cleancapital.com    Summer Solstice Fundraiser Join Reneu Energy, Positive Deviancy, and the Solar Maverick Podcast for the 2025 Summer Solstice Fundraiser! Celebrate the warm weather with us at the Summer Solstice Fundraiser, hosted by Reneu Energy, Positive Deviancy ,and the Solar Maverick Podcast. This special evening will take place on Thursday, June 5th, from 6 PM to 10 PM at Hudson Hall in Jersey City, NJ. We'll also be raising funds for the Let's Share the Sun Foundation, which aids impoverished communities in harnessing solar energy. Event Highlights: -Venue: Hudson Hall, a Czech biergarten and smokehouse co-owned by Benoy, CEO of Reneu Energy. -Time: 6 PM to 10 PM, with delicious food throughout the evening. -Tickets: $50 https://www.tickettailor.com/events/reneuenergy/1653652   CleanCapital Podcast https://cleancapital.com/thought-leadership/?_categories=podcast   Defend Solar Energy https://solarpowersamerica.org/campaign/defend-american-energy/

Global trade tensions have eased after a steadying in U.S. policy shifts, leading our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson to make a more bullish case for the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will discuss recent developments on tariffs and interest rates, and how it affects our 12 month view for U.S. Equities.It's Friday, May 23rd at 9am in New York.So, let's get after it.The reduction in the headline tariff rate on China from 145 percent to 30 percent extended the rally in stocks last week and should help to support both corporate and consumer confidence. More importantly, the 90-day détente came at a critical juncture, in my view, as a few more weeks of what was essentially a trade embargo would have likely led to a recession.Equity market volatility also subsided considerably amid the decline in trade policy uncertainty. In fact, both measures peaked well before the deal with China came together and are now back below where they were pre-Liberation Day. To me, this means trade headwinds have likely peaked in rate of change terms and are unlikely to return to such levels again. This would fit with the capitulatory price action we saw in early April with the average stock in the S&P 500 experiencing a 30 percent drawdown. In short, while the lagging hard data is likely to come in softer over the next coming months, the equity market already priced it in April. In the event of a recession that still arrives, we think the April lows will still hold, assuming it's a mild one with manageable risk to credit and funding markets.As further support for stocks, earnings revisions breadth appears to have bottomed. This indicator has leading properties in terms of the direction of earnings forecasts and is an important gauge of corporate confidence, in our view. The combination of upside momentum in revision breadth and last week's deal with China has placed the S&P 500 firmly back in our original pre-Liberation Day first half range of 5500-6100. Having said that, we think continued upward progress in earnings revisions breadth into positive territory will be necessary to break through 6100 in the near term, given the stickiness of 10-year Treasury yields.Amidst these developments, we released our mid -year outlook earlier this week and updated our base, bear and bull case targets for the S&P 500. In short, we effectively pushed out the timing of our original 6500 price target for the end of this year to 12 months from today. This is mainly due to a less dovish Fed and therefore higher 10-year Treasury yields than our economists and rates strategists expected at the end of last year. We also trimmed our EPS forecasts modestly to adjust for higher than expected tariff rates, at least for now.Looking ahead, we are more bullish today than we were at the end of last year given the growth negative policy announcements are now behind us and the Fed's next move is likely to be multiple cuts. In short, the rate of change on earnings revisions breadth, interest rates and policy changes from the administration are all now pointing in a positive direction, the opposite of six months ago and why I was not bullish on the first half of this year.The near-term risk for U.S. equities remains very overbought conditions and interest rates. With the Fed on hold due to lingering inflation concerns and Moody's downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt last Friday, 10-year Treasury yields are back above 4.5 percent; the level where the correlation between equities and rates tends to move back into negative territory. Ultimately, we think the Treasury and Fed have tools they can and will use to manage this risk. However, in the short term, this is a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to take a break and even lead to a 5 percent correction. We would look to add equity risk into such a correction should it materialize given our bullish 6-12-month view.Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The billionaires robbed us blind for 44 years — and we thanked them for it... Will it still work for the GOP?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

"If the president can violate the Constitution and there's no court that can enforce an order against him. Then you really do have a dictatorship." Dean and Jesse H. Choper Distinguished Professor of Law, University of California, Berkeley School of Law Prof. Erwin Chemerinsky joins Thom Hartmann to discuss the latest attempts to turn Donald Trump into a dictator. Plus Trump's no taxes on tips has become no healthcare for restaurant workers. Trump tries to BS Americans about his phone conversation with Putin, but Russia isn't going to let him get away with it. And FEMA is AWOL in tornado ravaged cities. Surprised? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Inside Economics team is joined by our colleagues Adam Kamins and Justin Begley to play the statistics game for nearly the entire podcast. There are lots of good stats, and it's a nice respite from all the economic drama for the long Memorial Day weekend.Guests: Justin Begley - Economist, Moody's Analytics, Adam Kamins - Senior Director and Head of Regional Economics, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

durée : 00:05:04 - Avec sciences - par : Alexandra Delbot - Une nouvelle étude révèle que les 10% des plus riches sont responsables de deux tiers du réchauffement climatique et d'une augmentation significative des événements climatiques extrêmes, mais... ils n'en subissent pas vraiment les conséquences. - invités : Fanny Henriet Economiste et professeure à Paris School of Economics

Allio was born out of an integration of the principles of 20th-century finance and 21st-century innovation. In this episode, ⁠Adam Torres⁠ and ⁠Joseph Gradante⁠, Co-Founder & CEO of Allio Capital, explore Joseph's journey as an entrepreneur and Allio Capital. Follow Adam on Instagram at ⁠https://www.instagram.com/askadamtorres/⁠ for up to date information on book releases and tour schedule. Apply to be a guest on our podcast: ⁠https://missionmatters.lpages.co/podcastguest/⁠ Visit our website: ⁠https://missionmatters.com/⁠ More FREE content from Mission Matters here: ⁠https://linktr.ee/missionmattersmedia⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fitch's 2Q25 Risk Headquarters report highlights a worsened risk outlook amid US tariff volatility. David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss key points from the report, centered around how Trump-era policies continue to elevate investor concerns.

U.S. yields and the 30-year note rise above 5 per cent as U.S. debt burden worries persist. The U.S. House of Representatives passes President Trump's tax and spending bill by a single vote that could add $4tn in U.S. debt. The bill is now due to makes its way through the Senate. We are live in Athens where Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis tells us exclusively that he believes the U.S. and EU are close to agreeing a trade deal with the possibility of lowering the 10 per cent Trump tariff baseline figure.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is discusses Tim Dillon's recent CNN interview, Michael Knowles' statement that he hasn't heard a persuasive argument about why Israel shouldn't defend itself , and more.Support Our Sponsors:Ridge - https://ridge.com/potp10Sheath - https://sheathunderwear.com use promo code PROBLEM20Get free shipping on your Quince order and 365-day returns athttps://www.quince.com/POTPBlackout Coffee - https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/problemPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Veteran War Correspondent in Kyiv, Ukraine & host of the 'On the Edge' podcast Phil Ittner reports from the war zone. News..., Trump gets all racist with South African prez, and officially takes possession of Qatari jet bribe. Plus Congressman Mark Pocan - National Progressive Townhall with calls.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dictators don't go quietly. They orchestrate fear, silence dissent, and distract with spectacle. Trump's moves in 2025 suggest he's not planning to lose power — no matter the cost.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As Republicans consider major changes to Medicaid and Obamacare, we asked a leading economist about the shockwaves these sharp policy shifts could send throughout the entire health care system.Guests:Jonathan Gruber, Ford Professor of Economics, MITLearn more and read a full transcript on our website.Want more Tradeoffs? Sign up for our free weekly newsletter featuring the latest health policy research and news.Support this type of journalism today, with a gift. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Send us a textThe world of biologics manufacturing is undergoing a major transformation. Once dominated by traditional batch processes, the industry is now experiencing a marked shift toward continuous bioprocessing.But as companies contemplate this transition, two questions dominate strategic discussions: Will regulators accept continuous manufacturing? And, perhaps more pressingly, Does the business case justify making the switch?In this podcast episode of the Smart Biotech Scientist Podcast, David Brühlmann dives into these pivotal topics - drawing insights from real-world case studies, regulatory updates, and economic analyses.Top three takeaways:Regulators Are On Board: The FDA, EMA, and global agencies now actively support continuous processing when robust controls and monitoring are in place.Real Economic Wins: Cost of goods reductions of up to 35% are possible at certain production scales, with much smaller facilities and lower risk of batch failure.Hybrid & Phased Approaches Work: Companies are finding success by first investing in enabling technologies and gradually transitioning, rather than making sudden changes.Continuous bioprocessing is no longer an experimental promise - it's an evolving standard. With regulatory bodies championing the shift, real-world implementations proving technical and economic viability, and strong financial incentives for the right manufacturers, the transition becomes not a question of “if,” but “when.”Curious how continuous manufacturing can fit into your strategy? Listen to this episode and share your thoughts or questions!Next step:Transform your bioprocess development strategy with a complimentary consultation. Schedule your expert session: https://bruehlmann-consulting.com/callReady to scale up? Join our exclusive 1:1 Strategy Call and learn proven methods to reduce development and manufacturing costs while maintaining product quality. Our bioprocess experts will help you navigate complex bioprocessing challenges and regulatory requirements. Limited spots available: https://stan.store/SmartBiotech

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss Mark Levin's comments about Dave regarding his opinions on the Israel/Palestine conflict, his take on the word "neoconservatives", and more.Support Our Sponsors:Moink - https://www.moinkbox.com/potpMonetary Metals - https://www.monetary-metals.com/potp/YoKratom - https://yokratom.com/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

With longer-term U.S. interest rates rising and no plan to reduce the budget deficit, is a U.S. national debt crisis imminent?Topics covered include:Why S&P, Fitch, and now Moody's stripped the U.S. of its pristine AAA debt ratingHow the U.S. national debt dynamics compare to Greece, Italy, and JapanWhat are four things investors should monitor for signs that the national debt crisis is worsening or spiraling out of controlInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesMoody's Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable—Moody's RatingsResearch Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative—S&P GlobalInterest Expense and Average Interest Rates on the National Debt FY 2010 – FYTD 2025—FiscalData.Treasury.govThe Stark Math on the GOP Tax Plan: It Doesn't Cut the Deficit by Richard Rubin—The Wall Street JournalThe Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055—Congressional Budget OfficeWalmart says higher prices could hit this month due to tariffs by Natalie Sherman—BBCPost on May 17th, 2025; 7:27 AM by Donald J. Trump—Truth SocialWalmart responds to Trump comment that retailer should ‘eat the tariffs' by Kyler Swaim—The HillWhat's behind Japan's High Government Debt? by YiLi Chien and Ashley H. Stewart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisRelated Episodes487: Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? Global Economic and Population Shifts479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To DoSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As President Donald J. Trump races to get the "One Big Beautiful Bill" across the finish line in Congress, our host with the most, Mike Slater, talks about a few final nooks and crannies of the legislation that haven't been covered by the lamestream media. You might be sick about hearing about this thing, but it's important and you'll want to know what Mike has to say!Following the opener, Breitbart's Economics Editor, John Carney, joins the program to give a fiscal expert's take on the bill and also gab about the "drama" surrounding America's state credit being downgraded by Moody's. It's an informative and educational discussion!

Alex Lawson, Social Security Works - Are you ready for $500 Billion in Medicare & Medicaid cuts to pay for the Billionaire's Tax Cuts??? Crazy Alert! Rightwingers, believing Russian propaganda designed to cause death in America, are insisting Biden's cancer came from the Covid shot. World news...As Israel starves and destroys GAZA, Orban has a bigger plan to muzzle dissent.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why the destruction of public institutions, the middle class, and government itself may not be a mistake — but the mission…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to the Covenant & Conversation series, Rabbi Sacks' commentary pieces on the weekly Torah portion, exploring ideas and sharing inspiration from the Torah readings of the week. This audio from Rabbi Sacks was recorded in 2015, as part of the Ethics series. To read and download the written essay, click here: https://rabbisacks.org/covenant-conversation/behar/the-economics-of-liberty/ This week we are also featuring an essay from Rabbi Sacks on Behar-Bechukotai entitled The Limits of the Free Market. To read and download the written essay and translations, click here: https://rabbisacks.org/covenant-conversation/behar/the-limits-of-the-free-market/ For intergenerational discussion on the weekly Parsha and Haftara, a new FAMILY EDITION is now also available: https://rabbisacks.org/covenant-conversation-family-edition/behar/the-limits-of-the-free-market/ ----- For more articles, videos, and other material from Rabbi Sacks, please visit www.RabbiSacks.org and follow @RabbiSacks. The Rabbi Sacks Legacy continues to share weekly inspiration from Rabbi Sacks. With thanks to the Schimmel Family for their generous sponsorship of Covenant & Conversation, dedicated in loving memory of Harry (Chaim) Schimmel.

About this episode: It's graduation time at the Bloomberg School! Doctoral candidate Jeff Marr joins the podcast to talk about how an economics major and an early internship at a health care system led to an interest in examining how health care markets and public policy work. Soon-to-be Dr. Marr discusses his dissertation looking at how predictive algorithms lead to decisions about care coverage. Guest: Jeffrey Marr is a healthcare economist and doctoral candidate at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. In July 2025, he will join Brown University as an Assistant Professor of Health Services, Policy, and Practice. Host: Dr. Josh Sharfstein is vice dean for public health practice and community engagement at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, a faculty member in health policy, a pediatrician, and former secretary of Maryland's Health Department. Show links and related content: Algorithmic Decision-Making in Health Care: Evidence from Post-Acute Care in Medicare Advantage Transcript information: Looking for episode transcripts? Open our podcast on the Apple Podcasts app (desktop or mobile) or the Spotify mobile app to access an auto-generated transcript of any episode. Closed captioning is also available for every episode on our YouTube channel. Contact us: Have a question about something you heard? Looking for a transcript? Want to suggest a topic or guest? Contact us via email or visit our website. Follow us: @‌PublicHealthPod on Bluesky @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Instagram @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Facebook @‌PublicHealthOnCall on YouTube Here's our RSS feed Note: These podcasts are a conversation between the participants, and do not represent the position of Johns Hopkins University.

We've known for decades that the 'Yell, Tell and Sell' strategy of belittling people, endeavouring to cajole—or shame—them into some kind of change doesn't work - in fact it can't work.  It's not how we're wired.  Cognitive neuroscience has been telling us this for decades but it's only recently that people have begun to listen. One of those who has been speaking in the wilderness for a long time—and is now finally being heard—is this week's guest, Renée Lertzman. Dr. Renée Lertzman is a researcher, advisor and strategist who translates relational psychology to change our approach to our planetary crisis. Applying her graduate training as a psychosocial researcher, she designs frameworks and methods, grounded in public health, clinical psychology and neurosciences, that guide people to take action and create impact on climate and sustainability issues. Over the past two decades, Renée has worked with global leaders, startups, governments, and mission-driven companies—including Google, IKEA, the California Academy of Sciences, and WWF—helping them navigate the emotional complexities of climate engagement. She's also the founder of Project InsideOut, an initiative that equips changemakers with psychologically grounded resources for collective transformation.This is the key to our survival. We need to learn how to engage ourselves and each other in ways that will transform ourselves and each other. We need to bring serious emotional literacy to the table so that we can create the containers, and attune to the anxieties and aspirations of people around us. We need, above all, to equip people to make sustained and sustainable change.  This is the core of Renée's work and hearing her talk about it in depth is the first step to making it happen.  Enjoy!Learn more at reneelertzman.com and projectinsideout.net.Renée on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/reneelertzman/Renée's TED talk https://www.ted.com/talks/renee_lertzman_how_to_turn_climate_anxiety_into_action

The narrative promoted by pro-gay activists is that sexual orientation is fixed, immutable, and that efforts to change it are both futile and harmful. In this interview, Hudson Byblow offers a deeply personal and thoughtful counterpoint to that claim. He describes how emotional wounds, unmet childhood needs, and confusion about belonging contributed to the development of his same-sex desires. His testimony reveals that identity is more than a label and that healing is possible through love, truth, and authentic relationships.   Byblow speaks candidly about how chastity and Catholic teaching did not restrict his life but instead opened a pathway to peace and interior freedom. He unpacks the ways in which early experiences of isolation and a longing for male friendship became entangled with sexual attraction. Rather than feeling condemned by the Church, he was embraced by faithful Catholics who walked with him patiently, helping him to see his dignity not as something he created, but as something he received from God.   Throughout the conversation, Dr. Jennifer Roback Morse provides thoughtful questions and pastoral insight that help frame Hudson's story within the broader struggle of many who experience same-sex attraction. The discussion challenges prevailing cultural assumptions while offering encouragement for anyone seeking hope, healing, and holiness. It's a conversation that testifies to the transforming power of truth told in love.   Watch Part 1 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_o11j1YzcjA     Subscribe to our newsletter to get this amazing report: Refuting the Top 5 Gay Myths https://ruthinstitute.org/refute-the-top-five-myths/   Watch the full episode on censorship-free Rumble or Locals: Rumble: https://rumble.com/v6t6m2n-hudson-byblows-story-will-deepen-your-faith-a-catholic-witness-of-healing-a.html Locals: https://theruthinstitute.locals.com/post/6917798/hudson-byblows-story-will-deepen-your-faith-a-catholic-witness-of-healing-hope     Hudson Byblow is a Catholic Speaker and author who specializes in training faithful Catholics how they can respond to all things LGBTQ+ in an authentically Catholic way. He is also the founder of Something More Beautiful, a site that helps people understand that just because LGBTQ+ desires/experiences might be part of their story, they are not automatically excluded from holy vocation to holy, chaste marriage.   LINK: https://smbm33.com/   Have a question or a comment? Leave it in the comments, and we'll get back to you!   Watch the full episode, uncensored, on Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/Theruthinstitute   Subscribe to our YouTube playlist:  @RuthInstitute  Follow us on Social Media: https://www.instagram.com/theruthinstitute https://twitter.com/RuthInstitute https://www.facebook.com/TheRuthInstitute/ https://theruthinstitute.locals.com/newsfeed   Press: NC Register: https://www.ncregister.com/author/jennifer-roback-morse Catholic Answers: https://www.catholic.com/profile/jennifer-roback-morse The Stream: https://stream.org/author/jennifer-roback-morse/ Crisis Magazine: https://crisismagazine.com/author/jennifer-roeback-morse   Father Sullins' Reports on Clergy Sexual Abuse: https://ruthinstitute.org/resource-centers/father-sullins-research/   Buy Dr. Morse's Books: The Sexual State: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/the-sexual-state-2/ Love and Economics: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/love-and-economics-it-takes-a-family-to-raise-a-village/ Smart Sex: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/smart-sex-finding-life-long-love-in-a-hook-up-world/ 101 Tips for a Happier Marriage: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/101-tips-for-a-happier-marriage/ 101 Tips for Marrying the Right Person: https://ruthinstitute.org/product/101-tips-for-marrying-the-right-person/   Listen to our podcast: Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ruth-institute-podcast/id309797947 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/1t7mWLRHjrCqNjsbH7zXv1   Subscribe to our newsletter to get this amazing report: Refuting the Top 5 Gay Myths https://ruthinstitute.org/refute-the-top-five-myths/   Get the full interview by joining us for exclusive, uncensored content on Locals: https://theruthinstitute.locals.com/support

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by co-host Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein to discuss Kash Patel and Dan Bongino's recent fox news interview, Bernie Sanders' interview with Andrew Schultz, and more.Support Our Sponsors:CrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpHexcladProton Mail -http://www. proton.me/davesmithPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://www.eventbrite.com/cc/porch-tour-2025-4222673Find Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit, our analysts Chiwoong Lee and Sho Nakazawa discuss their outlook for the Japanese economy and stock market in light of the country's evolving trade partnerships with the U.S. and China.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lee-san: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chiwoong Lee, Principal Global Economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Nakazawa-san: And I'm Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Lee-san: Today we're coming to you live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit in Tokyo. And we'll be sharing our views on Japan in the context of global economic growth. We will also focus on Japan's position vis-à-vis its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China.It's Tuesday, May 20, at 3pm in Tokyo.Lee-san: Nakazawa-san, you and I both have been talking with a large number of clients here at the summit. Based on your conversations, what issues are most top of mind right now?Nakazawa-san: There are many inquiries about how to position because of the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the investment strategy for governance reform. These are both catalysts for Japan. And in Japan, there are multiple governance investment angles, with increasing interest in the removal of parent-child listings, which is when a parent company and a subsidiary company are both listed on an exchange. This reform [would] remove the subsidiaries. So, clients are very focused on who will be the next candidate for the removal of a parent-child listing.And what are you hearing from clients on your side, Lee-san?Lee-san: I would say the most frequent questions we received were regarding the Trump administration's policies, of course. While the reciprocal tariffs have been somewhat relaxed compared to the initial announcements, they still remain very high; and there was a strong focus on their negative impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy, including Japan. Of course, external demand is critical for Japanese economy, but when we pointed out the resilience of domestic demand, many investors seemed to agree with that view.Nakazawa-san: How do investors' views square with your outlook for the global economy over the rest of the year?Lee-san: Well, there was broad consensus that tariffs and policy uncertainty are negatively affecting trade and investment activities across countries. In particular, there is concern about the impact on investment. As Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke wrote in his papers in [the] 1980s, uncertainty tends to delay investment decisions. However, I got the impression that views varied on just how sensitive investment behavior is to this uncertainty.Nakazawa-san: How significant are U.S. tariffs on global economy including Japan both near-term and longer-term?Lee-san: The negative effects on the global economy through trade and investment are certainly important, but the most critical issue is the impact on the U.S. economy. Tariffs essentially act as a tax burden on U.S. consumers and businesses.For example, in 2018, there was some impact on prices, but the more significant effect was on business production and employment. Now, with even higher tariff rates, the impact on inflation and economic activity is expected to be even greater. Given the inflationary pressures from tariffs, we believe the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates in 2025. On the other hand, once it becomes feasible, likely in 2026, we anticipate the Fed will need to implement substantial rate cuts.Lee-san: So, Nakazawa-san, how has the Japanese stock market reacted to U.S. tariffs?Nakazawa-san: Investors positioning have skewed sharply to domestic-oriented non-manufacturing sectors since the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. Tariff talks with some nations have achieved some progress at this stage, spurring buybacks of export-oriented manufacturer shares. However, the screening by our analysts of the cumulative surplus returns against Japan's TOPIX index for around 500 stocks in their coverage universe, divided into stocks relatively vulnerable to tariff effects and those less impacted, finds a continued poor performance at the former. We believe it is important to enhance the portfolio's robustness by revising sector skews in accordance with any progress in the trade talks and adjusting long/short positioning with the sectors in line with the impact of the tariffs.Lee-san: I see. You recently revised your Topix index target, right. Can you quickly walk us through your call?Nakazawa-san：Yes, of course. We recently revised down our base case TOPIX target for end-2025 from 3,000 to 2,600. This revision was considered by several key factors: So first, our Japan economics team revised down its Japanese nominal growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.3%, reflecting implementation of reciprocal tariffs and lower growth forecasts for the U.S., China, and Europe. Second, our FX team lowered its USD/JPY target from 145 to 135 due to the risk of U.S. hard data taking a marked turn for the worse. The timing aligns with growing uncertainty on the business environment, which may lead firms to manage cash allocation more cautiously. So, this year might be a bit challenging for Japanese equities that I recommend staying defensive positioning with defensive non-manufacturing sectors overall.Nakazawa-san: And given tariff risks, do you see a change in the Bank of Japan's rate path for the rest of the year?Lee-san: Yeah well, external demand is a very important driver of Japanese economy. Even if tariffs on Japan do not rise significantly, auto tariffs, for example, remain in place and cannot be ignored. The earnings deterioration among export-oriented companies, especially in the auto sector, will take time for the Bank of Japan to assess in terms of its impact on winter bonuses and next spring's wage growth. If trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries including Japan make major progress by summer, a rate hike in the fall could be a risk scenario. However, our Japan teams' base case remains that the policy rate will be unchanged through 2026.Lee-san: How is the Japanese yen faring relative to the U.S. dollar, and how does it impact the Japanese stock market, Nakazawa-san?Nakazawa-san：I would say USD/JPY is not only driver for Japanese equities. Of course, USD/JPY still plays a key role in earnings, as our regression model suggests a 1% higher USD/JPY lifting TOPIX 0.5% on average. But this sensitivity has trended down over the past decade. A structural reason is that as value chain building close to final demand locations has lifted overseas production ratios, which implies continuous efforts of Japanese corporate optimizing global supply chain.That said, from sector allocation perspective, sectors showing greater resilience include domestic demand-driven sectors, such as foods, construction & materials, IT & services/others, transportation & logistics, and retails.Nakazawa-san: And finally, the trade relationship between Japan and China is one of the largest trading partnerships in the world. Are U.S. tariffs impacting this partnership in any way?Lee-san: That's a very difficult question, I have to say, but I think there are multiple angles to consider. Geopolitical risk remains to be a key focus, and in terms of the military alliance, Japan-U.S. relationships have been intact. At the same time, Japan faces increased pressure to meet U.S. demands. That said, Japan has been taking steps such as strengthening semiconductor manufacturing and increasing defense spending, so I believe there is a multifaceted evaluation which is necessary.Lee-san: That said, I think it's time to head back to the conference. Nakazawa-san, thanks for taking the time to talk.Nakazawa-san: Great speaking with you, Lee-san.Lee-san: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

While Trump gathers his forces to give billionaires another massive tax break, how are the rest of us made all the poorer in the process? Progressive Rep Ro Khanna joins Thom with a Congress-eye view.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In a legal sleight of hand, Republicans want to strip judges of their power to enforce rulings — because holding Trump in contempt might actually work…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Patrick McKenzie explains to EconTalk's Russ Roberts how credit cards work, who makes money from them and how, and gives his take on whether cash customers and debit card users subsidize the users of credit cards with reward programs.