Podcasts about Economics

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave discusses Donald Trump's most recent interview in which he claims that the war with Iran is close to over, that the economy is doing well, and more.Support Our Sponsors:My Patriot Supply - http://preparelikedave.comProlon - https://prolonlife.com/potpRidge - https://ridge.com/potp10Superpower - https://superpower.com/ and use code PROBLEM for $20 off!Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In August 1863, as Lee's army retreated from Gettysburg and Vicksburg fell to Grant, the Union's Anaconda Plan deployed hundreds of ships to strangle 3,500 miles of Confederate coastline, triggering hyperinflation and economic collapse as the South lost its ability to export King Cotton for vital war supplies. Yet in Mobile, Alabama—uniquely insulated from the front lines—civilian merchant mariners with knowledge of hidden coastal inlets and shifting sandbars became the Confederacy's lifeline, piloting low-profile steel-hulled steamers through Union blockades in total darkness using lead-lining and secret shore-based signal stations. These daring runs generated profits of 700% to 1,000% per voyage, but before the Confederate government mandated 50% war supplies per shipment, captains often prioritized black market silks and liquors over desperately needed ammunition and salt. Today's guest is Bill C. Wilson, career merchant mariner and author of Course Over Ground, a historical thriller set during the height of Civil War blockade running in his hometown of Mobile. We discuss how blockade runners shifted from wooden sailing vessels to steamers burning "smokeless" anthracite coal to remain invisible on the horizon, why the transition to high-pressure steam engines was necessary to outrun Union "double-enders," and how the shuttle system between neutral ports like Nassau and Bermuda kept the cotton-for-arms pipeline flowing. Wilson also reveals his favorite research discovery: during the Battle of Mobile Bay, the last confirmed bayonet wound suffered by an American sailor occurred when two warships came into contact, and explains why once Wilmington fell in 1865, the blockade runner's role was already obsolete due to the collapse of the Southern rail system.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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In this episode, former Bible publisher Paul Caminiti shares an insider look at the global Bible industry, revealing surprising truths about how Scripture is translated, marketed, and consumed. From his leadership role at Zondervan to overseeing millions of Bible sales annually, Caminiti uncovers the business dynamics behind modern Bible publishing—including why Bibles remain the bestselling book every year. The conversation dives into the creation of the New International Version (NIV), exploring the complex, expensive process of translation and the ongoing scholarly debates between “word-for-word” and “thought-for-thought” approaches. Caminiti also recounts the intense “Bible wars,” where cultural, theological, and political pressures clashed over gender-inclusive language in Scripture. Despite record-breaking sales—over 25 million Bibles sold annually in North America—Bible reading continues to decline. Caminiti explains why, pointing to fragmented reading habits, over-engineered study Bibles, and the unintended consequences of chapter and verse formatting. Ultimately, this episode challenges listeners to rethink how they engage with Scripture, introducing a fresh approach that emphasizes immersive, communal reading over isolated study—offering a compelling vision for rediscovering the Bible's original impact. Buy the Immerse Bible here: https://ourdailybreadpublishing.org/immerse-bible.html We are listener supported. Give to the cause here: https://hebraicthought.org/give For more articles: https://thebiblicalmind.org/ Social Links: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HebraicThought Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hebraicthought Threads: https://www.threads.net/hebraicthought X: https://www.twitter.com/HebraicThought Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/hebraicthought.org Chapters: 00:00 The Bible Publishing Industry: Surprises and Insights 04:34 The Economics of Bible Publishing 10:44 Translation Challenges and Scholarly Rigor 17:43 Navigating the Bible Wars 24:27 Marketing Strategies and Media Reactions 30:11 Controversies in Bible Translation 31:53 Understanding Gendered Language in Translation 35:26 The Bible's Bestselling Status vs. Reading Trends 39:10 The Dilemma of Bible Sales vs. Engagement 42:10 Introducing the Immersed Bible 51:13 The Impact of Reading Order on Understanding Scripture

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss Ben Shapiro attempting to portray the war with Iran in a positive light, Douglas Murray on Bill Maher saying that we should finish the war because we should "start what we finish", and more.Support Our Sponsors:BodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderFast Growing Trees - Use code PROBLEM at http://www.fastgrowingtrees.com to save an additional 20% off your first order with Fast Growing Trees!CrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kim Bowes is an archaeologist at the University of Pennsylvania whose book, Surviving Rome: The Economic Lives of the Ninety Percent, Tyler calls perhaps his favorite economics book of 2025. By sifting through the material remains of Roman life — shoes, bricks, ceramics, and the like — she uncovers a picture of ordinary Romans who could evidently afford to buy multiple sets of colorful clothes, use gold coins for daily transactions, and eat peppercorns sourced from thousands of miles away. This vast web of commerce, she argues, both bound the empire together and provided the tax base that kept it running — and when it unraveled, Rome unraveled with it. Tyler and Kim discuss what would surprise a modern visitor to a Roman elite home, what early Roman Christianity actually looked like on the ground, why Romans never developed formal economic reasoning, what decentralized money-lending reveals about the Roman state, whether there were anything like forward markets, why Romans continued to use coins even as the empire debased them, the economics of Roman slavery, whether Roman recipes taste any good, the Romans as hyper-scalers rather than inventors, what Rome made of China and Egypt, why Kim's not a fan of the Vesuvius challenge, the practicalities of landscape archaeology, how a vast belt of factories along the Tiber Valley went undiscovered until twenty years ago, where to go on a three-week tour of the Roman Empire, what she thinks is ultimately behind Rome's unraveling, and much more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded February 2nd, 2026. Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:06 - Roman Housing 00:08:28 - What Early Roman Christians Actually Believed 00:16:29 - Roman Economic Thought 00:18:39 - Roman Banking and Money Practices 00:28:48 - The Economics of Roman Slavery 00:31:56 - What Held The Roman Empire Together 00:36:46 - Roman Cookery 00:39:17 - The Romans as Masters of Scale 00:42:05 - Rome's Contact with Asia 0043:59 - The Vesuvius Challenge 00:45:13 - Ancient Carthage and the Fall of Rome 0049:43 - The Realities of Doing Archaeology 00:57:15 - Touring the Roman Empire 01:00:42 - Outro

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter concludes the two-part discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on the second order effects of the energy shock from tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, the Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. Yesterday we focused on the immediate impact of the Iran conflict, how the energy shock is feeding through into inflation, and, as a result, shaping central bank decisions across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.Today we're going to go a level deeper and talk about some structural issues in the global economy. It's Wednesday, April 15th at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3pm in London. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, even as we're waiting to see whether or not oil prices stabilize following a temporary ceasefire – or not – the broader effects are still working their way through the global economy. Labor markets, supply chains, and then, of course, back to the more longer-term structural themes like AI driven growth. So, the question, I think, has to be: what does this shock mean, if anything, for the next phase of global growth? And does it reshape it? Does it change it, or do we just wait for things to go through? Mike, let me come to you first. One risk that we've been focusing on is whether this kind of shock really changes some of the structural positives in the U.S. economy. The U.S. has been, I would say, outperforming in lots of ways. We've had this AI driven CapEx cycle. We've had rising productivity; we've had strong consumer spending. What are you seeing in the data about those more structural trends? Michael Gapen: I think what we're seeing in the data right now is evidence that oil is not disrupting the positive structural trends in the U.S. I think AI CapEx spending is largely orthogonal to what we've seen so far. It doesn't mean that we can't see negative effects, particularly if oil rises to say $150 a barrel or more where we think you might see significant demand destruction. But with oil where it is right now, I would say the evidence is it will probably weigh on consumption. Gasoline prices are higher. It's going to squeeze lower- and middle-income households that way. But so far, the labor market appears to be holding up. And business spending around CapEx seems to be holding up. And the productivity story remains in place. So right now, I'd say this is more of a break on consumer spending, maybe a modest headwind. But not an outright hard stop. And I think those positive structural elements and AI-related CapEx spending are going to stay with us in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I hear in your answer part of what for me is always the most uncomfortable part of these conversations. Where I have to come back to say, ‘But of course it depends on how things evolve…' Michael Gapen: Of course, It depends… Seth Carpenter: So, then let me push you on AI specifically. You and your team have published a few pieces recently about AI. How AI is affecting the labor market, and maybe some hints as to how AI is likely to affect the labor market. So how should we think about that? Michael Gapen: While it's still too early, I think, to draw firm conclusions, Seth, we do find that there's some evidence that AI is pushing unemployment rates higher in specific occupations that are exposed to task replacement. So, what we did do is we broke down the data by occupation, and it's clear that the unemployment rate has been rising. But that's just a general feature of the economy at this point in time. Over the last 18 to 24 months, the unemployment rate has gone higher. So, what we did is a second-round effort at kind of controlling for cyclicality. And when you control for those, we do find evidence that the unemployment rate for occupations that have high exposure to AI is higher than you would expect, given the cyclical performance of the economy. But the effect is really small. It's maybe about 1/10th on the unemployment rate. So, I don't want to be too Pollyannish and say, ‘Oh, there's no evidence here that AI is disrupting the labor market.' We'd say that there is some evidence there. But, so far, it's mild and it's modest. It's a little more micro than it is macro. So, we'll see how this evolves. But that would be our initial conclusion so far. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike, that's super helpful. When I think about the AI investment cycle, though, I have to come back to Asia because a lot of the AI supply chain is there in Asia, especially with semiconductors and others. But there's lots of supply chain around the world. So, Chetan, if I think about different supply chains, different industries in Asia that are at risk, potentially being disrupted by the current shock, where do you focus? And then take a step further and tell me if you see a risk that there's a structural dislocation going on here in any of these sectors? Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, there are two relevant points here from Asia supply chain perspective, particularly the tech sector. Number one, there are some concerns on the supply side issues in the context of helium and sulfur. But from what we see as of today, these companies who need that helium and sulfur are able to pay up. As you would appreciate, this is a sector which is, you know, making a lot of money for those economies, i.e. Korea and Taiwan. And they are able to bid up on gas prices, sulfur, and helium, and still managing their production lines. So, we don't see a supply constraint as of now for their production, but there will be an implication for them if you do see damage on U.S. growth, which is quite meaningful. At the end of the day, these sectors are deep cyclical sectors. But if you do see that, you know, scenario of $150 of oil price and it brings global economy to near recession, then there will be implication for these companies and sectors in Asia as well. Seth Carpenter: All right, so Jens, let me bring it to you then. Because when I think about Europe, I think about a couple things. One, kind of, the intersection of energy vulnerability now markets pricing in tighter policy, industrial exposure, which has been going on for a long time. Takes us back in lots of ways to the energy price shock that started in 2021 and went through all of 2022, where we did see, I think, a hit to European manufacturing that had kind of a long tail to it. So, when you think about the current situation, what do you think this shock means for the medium term? How much of an effect do you think this energy price shock could have on the European economy going out a couple of years?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, I mean, just listening to you guys, I mean, really makes me a little bit more depressed still, in terms of being European economist here. Because I mean, it seems America, well, they have the same energy shock, but at least they have AI. In Asia while they have the same energy shock, but at least they have something to deliver into AI. Europe just has the shock, right? So, in some sense there could be one summary.No, but I mean, going back to the comparison and the question. Of course, we have downgraded, as I said yesterday, our growth outlook. And that's predominantly on simply inflation high that is not great for consumption. Consumption is 50 percent of GDP. So, you want to take down a little bit your forecast and your optimism. And then – to your point – where does this leave Europe? We do have already less energy intense manufacturing than before. So, not sure if you'll see much more, or much further downward pressure on this sector. But, of course, it is an uphill battle from here to get back. To get this industrial renaissance back that to some extent the Germans at least are hoping for. In our growth outlook and our growth revisions, we looked into differentiated impacts. And, of course, one of these impacts is through trade. And again, the backdrop here probably globally is not great for trade – as at least you would not want to be super optimistic in that current backdrop. And that will hurt again Europe. So, to your question, we have an outlook, which is still positive growth; but much more muted than say, a month ago or two. Seth Carpenter: Can I push you then a little bit and say that this shock to the European economy then isn't just a cyclical hit. There's probably an additional sort of structural headwind that might get introduced on the heels of, say, the earlier 2021-2022 energy shock? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say it's the same thing. It's just a reminder that this is still there, right? Europe needs to, kind of, find ways… I think it's best exemplified by the German economy, who was exporting to the rest of the world. And now it looks like as if China has taken over that role. And so, you have to find a new business model, simply speaking, because the ice cream shop next door is just better than you. And so, this is something, what the European economy has just gotten another reminder, and it came through energy, in particular. So, this is where the similarities are. So that was a [20]22 shock. In the meantime, oil prices had nicely retraced, gas prices had nicely retraced. We have new contracts with different suppliers. But still, I mean, the high energy prices expose us here. Because we are already a continent with very high electricity prices, which are derived from the fossil fuels. And so that is not going to end. And so, the continent really urgently has to address that weakness, that structural weakness. And so yeah, in that sense it's structural. Seth Carpenter: Let me pull this together for maybe a final question for each of you. And I'd love it if you could just answer really quickly. Quick fire answers here. We've got a baseline scenario where energy prices are high. Oil is back up a little bit over $100 a barrel. But I think we, and most of the market, are assuming oil prices gradually come down later this year. Mike, what's the prognosis for the U.S. economy? If instead oil prices skyrocket, say they go through $150 a barrel for a couple of months in a row. Michael Gapen: So, the risk there, Seth, is that you do get significant demand destruction. It's not just a gasoline price story for the consumer. It's about weak asset markets. It's about a pullback in hiring. So, at $150 a barrel or more, I would be afraid about recession risk in the U.S. The U.S. is well positioned to handle an oil price shock, but it also has limits. Seth Carpenter: Got it. Jens, suppose instead we had a rapid de-escalation and all of a sudden in the next two months, oil prices are backed down to say $80 a barrel or so. How much of the damage that you envision for the European economy is already baked in the cake? And how much of it goes away if oil prices retrace over the next two months? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say a lot for this year is baked in the cake to use your words. While next year, we would be basically back to where we had been before in numbers. 1.2 instead of the 0.9 we are seeing currently. And importantly, the ECB could stay. It would not have to hike into that crisis. Seth Carpenter: So, Chetan, , let me come back to you then to wrap up this whole conversation. We've talked about energy mostly in terms of price, but as we've discussed there is the quantity side of things. So, do you think there's a non-linearity? Is there something that's going to just fundamentally change if instead of the rationing being done by price, we get to a point where there's just simply no supply coming to Asia? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, I think that's a very real risk, and that's particularly more important for Asia because there's a lot of dependence on Middle East, and both gas and oil coming in through the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah, I think there is a risk of non-linearity on Asia's growth dynamics if you see supply shortages. Seth Carpenter: Super helpful. I think that's a great place to leave it. What started as a geopolitical shock is now evolving into something broader, touching everything from inflation, interest rates, possibly productivity and technology investment, and clearly global trade. So, Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you all for coming to help connect these dots. And to the listener, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Why portfolio construction is messy, personal, and never perfect. We compare the pros and cons of several portfolio strategies, including target-date funds, risk parity, and role-based portfolios. We conclude with three AI-related fallacies that will help us better navigate the current moment.SponsorsSquare - Get up to $200 in hardwareDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offLive Portfolio Cohort - May 2026Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesMoney for the Rest of Us Live Portfolio CohortsWhy Everything Suddenly Is ‘Perfect' by Paula Marantz Cohen—The Wall Street JournalYour Perfect Portfolio by Cullen Roche—Pan MacMillanMy Core Investment Values by Peter Lazaroff—Peter LazaroffShow Us Your Portfolio: Jared Dillian—Excess Returns: An Investing PodcastThe dystopian fantasy of uselessness by Stephen Cane—The Financial TimesRelated Episodes491: The Five Layers of Investing306: Three Approaches to Asset AllocationSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Journalist, Criminal justice Researcher, former law enforcement officer, veteran, author, Christopher Armitage explains that criminal cases are being built against Trump and his cabinet in all 50 states. Guess where it starts? Iran Offered a Deal. Trump Walked Away and Chose War. Will Trump Wipe Away His Impeachment? He's Getting Help from Epstein's Lawyer. Plus Your Tax Bill Just Revealed for Whom the Government Really Works.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From Hungary to Ukraine to America, one message wins: expose the rigged system and mobilize voters to defeat it…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss the U.S. now blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the politics of Iran protecting Lebanon, Steven Crowder's statements about backing Trump no matter what, and more.Support Our Sponsors:The Wellness Company - Visit www.twc.health/problem to get American Made Ivermectin. Order your 6-month supply today and use code PROBLEM for $30 Off + FREE shipping. USA Residents onlyCowboy Colostrum - Get 25% Off Cowboy Colostrum with code DAVE at https://www.cowboycolostrum.com/DAVEMy Patriot Supply - http://preparelikedave.comVanMan - https://vanman.shop/DAVEPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this first of a two-part discussion, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter leads a discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on impacts of the conflict in Iran and how central banks are responding.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're going to kick off our quarterly economic roundtable. And this is where we try to step back a little bit from the headlines and the day-to-day changes in markets and try to put the global picture together and frame it for you. In the first of this two-part discussion, we're going to cover the implications of the oil price shock for energy, inflation, and for central bank policy. As always, I'm joined by the Chief Regional Economists here at Morgan Stanley. I've got Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. It's Tuesday, April 14th at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3pm in London. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, let's just jump right into this. Over the past several weeks, global markets have been dominated by one story. The escalation, de-escalation, the news flow back and forth about the conflict in Iran and the ripple across energy markets, inflation, and growth. Our view has been that even if we don't see another huge leg up in the price of energy and another surge in volatility across financial markets, the persistence of the shock in terms of disrupted supply will be at least as important, if not more so for markets. So, let me start here in the U.S., Mike. You and I have each had lots of conversations with clients about how the Fed's going to react. Market pricing moved a lot before, has retraced, and now is kind of looking at no change in policy for this year, give or take. Your baseline remains that the Fed will have an easing bias and that we'll end up with a couple of cuts later this year. Can you walk us through that thinking, and also where the debate is with clients? Michael Gapen: Sure. So, the evidence in the data… This goes back, let's call it several decades now – that oil price shocks in the U.S. do tend to push headline inflation higher by definition. But they have very limited second round effects on core inflation. And the higher oil prices go, the more likely it is that you get some demand destruction, some weakness in spending, maybe even some weakness in hiring. So, there is a bit of a non-linearity here. In our baseline where oil is elevated, but let's say not excessively high, I can completely buy the argument that the Fed is on hold assessing the evolution of the data and wondering are there second round effects on inflation? Or is this weakening demand? So, Seth, our view is that the Fed is right in its assessment that tariff passed through to goods prices will eventually moderate. And that the oil price effect on headline will diminish. And later this year, core inflation moderates. That should open the door for the Fed to cut two times this year. I do think that the wrong thing to do in this situation is to raise rates into this… Seth Carpenter: I agree with you. Michael Gapen: Yeah. So, I think it's… The Fed's on hold or their cutting. If we're right on where inflation goes, that can open the door to cuts. But to your point, where is the investor debate right now? I think the knee jerk reaction from markets is – the Fed's on the sideline, for, let's call it the foreseeable future. Which as you noted in this market is day-to-day headline to headline. And the Fed will assess where to go later this year. We think they can cut. But I think in general, the Fed is either on hold or cutting. I think the wrong thing to do right now is raise rates. Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, let me jump in maybe here from Europe where in theory it's the same problem. Just that the answer that the central bank is likely to give in Europe is slightly different from the one in the U.S. So, the debate we have with clients is not so much about whether or not the ECB is going to hike rates. It's more about how much it will do or have to do this. I mean, again, it has a lot to do with the way oil prices in the end, end up trading. It will be a lot more inflation or less. But it has also to do with the way the mandates are constructed. So, the ECB really has a single inflation mandate and not a dual mandate like the Fed in the case of the U.S. So, there's much more attention on inflation. Next to that, we have stronger second round effects. Historically, we know that from the data. So, it's clear and understandable why ECB policy makers all came out cautioning against that inflation coming, and sort of mulling what had to be done there. We had some leaks out of the governing council meeting in March that maybe [in] April, you've already seen rate hikes. We pushed strongly back against that notion. Since then, we had other policy makers coming out agreeing to that. Yet we likely have a discussion in the June meeting that may lead to a rate hike. We currently forecast a rate hike in June and one in September. Seth Carpenter: What about the growth risks to the euro area? Is that part of why you think the hikes might come later? Is that part of why the ECB might only hike two times this year? How do you think about the growth risks for the euro area in addition to the inflation risks? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, no, I think that's a fair question. We have just updated our growth outlook for this year. Next, we've downgraded growth, obviously. Again, all of that is dependent on the scenario in the end we are in. For now, we assume a scenario of elevated oil prices for this year, but then they will retrace. Now the ECB will look at that in a very similar fashion. So first of all, they will have their new projections. They will see whether there is any hope, reasonable hope that we go back to close to target inflation. Mind you, we were below target, started the year on a very good footing here. And now are projecting we will more or less come out at above 3 percent this year and 2.4 next. Both are above the 2 percent target. That already factors in a mild hit to growth. And I think here is really the crux of the matter. If the ECB has to see a more dramatic downward revision of its growth outlook, they may as well hold a little bit more back with rate hikes. At the same time, for now, all the indications are that the hit to growth will be relatively mild and herein lies if you want the basis for the rate hikes. It's a bit of a signaling device. It's a bit of lowering growth, but not really as much. It's not – we see a central bank leaning strongly against inflation. We are seeing them mildly leaning against it in a bid to stabilize inflation expectations mainly.Seth Carpenter: Alright, that's super helpful. Chetan, I'm going to come to you because we've talked with Mike and with Jens about the inflationary side of things and the growth side of things. But when I think about energy and Asia, I think of Asia as being a bit more exposed than other big economies, definitely relative to the United States. And I think about a lot of sensitivity, not just to the consumer, but also to manufacturing. So how are you thinking about the exposure across your region, across Asia to this energy shock? Where are the biggest risks? Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, first of all, I agree with you. I think Asia is the most exposed region. The best metric for assessing that is how much is the net oil imports of each of the regions in the world. And Asia is at around 2 percent of GDP. Europe is around 1.5 percent of GDP and U.S. is actually a minor surplus. Now in terms of the transmission of this shock to growth, there are two elements to be considered. One is the price of oil and gas, and second is the supply shortages. And in fact, all my life when I have been doing this work of modeling on oil shocks to growth transmission, we've never had to really think about supply shortages. We've always been considering oil price increase and its impact. But in this cycle, we have to also consider the supply shortages. So, when you consider both these factors, we think that there will be a meaningful growth damage to Asia from the evidence of oil price increase and gas supply shortages that we have seen so far. And we have just reduced our growth estimates for the region from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent. Mind you, first quarter was fine. So, this is all on account of the last three-quarters growth damage. And we are assuming that there will some kind of normalcy that we see in ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. And we are resuming oil prices average around $110 in second quarter and then come down to $90. So, in that sense, our base case is still expecting some kind of a resolution very soon. But if that doesn't materialize and you see oil prices rising up to $150, then we think region will take a much bigger hit and growth will come down to 3.9 percent in 2026. Seth Carpenter: So, Chetan, you've made a couple of really good points there. One I want to highlight is the difference between the quantities and the prices. I would say as economists, as people in markets, we're used to thinking about oil shocks as just about the price of oil and how that transmits through.But I do think there's a real risk now, given the virtual shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that we see physical shortages. And across different Asian economies, we have seen rationing already come into place. So, when you look across the region, how would you rank the specific economies that are most exposed? Especially if we have to think about physical shortages. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, right. Seth. So, we've considered both the aspects, price effect as well as the supply shortages. And on that basis, we rank India, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea and Philippines are the ones which are most exposed. And on the other hand, China and Malaysia are least exposed. Japan and Australia are moderately exposed. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, and that makes a lot of sense. But I can't let you get away from the discussion on Asia without thinking about China. What are you thinking specifically about China? How exposed is it? What's going to happen with growth there? And you know, one of the themes, you and Robin Xing, our Chief China Economist, had been talking about now for over a year is the deflationary cycle in China. So how should we think about the effects in China? Chetan Ahya: So, I think, yeah, China is uniquely positioned in this cycle. We are expecting China's growth to be down by just 10 basis points. So, it almost is as if there is not much damage to China's growth estimates that we have made. And the reason why we see little damage in China's growth numbers is because of two reasons. Number one is that their net oil imports are relatively low. And second is that they have a lot of control on their supply chain. So, for example, they have coal gasification facility. So, when crude oil prices rise above $100, they can activate this coal gasification facility and use that for all the areas where you can use fuel. And they are also quite good in terms of their own electricity distribution management. They have a lot of surplus thermal power capacity. They have a lot of surplus solar electricity capacity. So, they're able to toggle between gas-based electricity supply into coal and solar. So that gives them a lot of leeway to manage the shock and not have much growth damage. Onto your second point on the impact on its deflationary situation. We think that there will be a rise in prices in China because of the input price increase. We still won't call that as winning this deflation challenge that China has been going through over the last three years. For us, if you want to have true sustainable reflation, you should see consumption demand picking up. At the same time, you should see improvement in corporate margins. And neither of those will happen when you have a rise in inflation because of rise in input prices.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. As always China is an interesting but complicated story. So maybe this is a good place to stop for today.We focused on the immediate effects of the shock, higher energy prices, central bank reaction. Tomorrow, I think we'll be able to dig in deeper into some of the second order effects, and then also ask the question, where are we going from here? What's going to happen to labor markets productivity – the more structural questions. So, Mike Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thank you for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

The 'Beautiful Mess' author John Pavlovitz- pastor and a committed Christian- joins Thom to discuss the Trump's attack on the established church... and even the Pope! What is a true Christian?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Is Trump the Antichrist? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Recorded live at the a16z Fintech Connect conference in Deer Valley, Alex Rampell speaks with Ben Horowitz, cofounder and general partner at a16z, about how AI has rewritten the fundamental rules of software competition, why crypto infrastructure will become essential in an AI-dominated world, and what the future holds for venture capital.   Resources: Follow Alex Rampell on X: https://twitter.com/arampell Follow Ben Horowitz on X: https://twitter.com/bhorowitz Stay Updated:Find a16z on YouTube: YouTubeFind a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Show on SpotifyListen to the a16z Show on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Eleventh lecture of Principles of Economics explains how individual preferences coordinate production and consumption decisions through economic calculation based on property rights, and why consumer sovereignty drives entrepreneurial decisions in the market order.Get all course notes and slides on saifedean.com/poecourse

(April 14, 2026) The economic game of chicken between Iran and the US is about to enter a dangerous new phase. How Waymo and WAZE are pitching in to help solve L.A’s pothole problem. New disclosures reveal how ODGE actually worked. The 30yr crime spree of Pablo Escobar’s ‘cocaine hippos.’See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Decolonization has long been debated across the social sciences, but the economics discipline has so far avoided such critical engagement. Decolonizing Economics: An Introduction (Polity, 2024) provides a much-needed intervention.Dutt, Alves, Kesar, and Kvangraven uncover the deeply Eurocentric foundations that shape how economists study the world today. These have rendered the discipline ill-equipped to tackle critical questions, such as structural racism, uneven development, the climate crisis, labour relations, and how structural power shapes economic outcomes. Decolonizing economics entails challenging the norms of neutrality and objectivity that economists claim to speak from, while fostering alternative ways of understanding the economy that take seriously structural power relations and contemporary processes of economic development. Readers will come to understand the political stakes of decolonization and the wide range of scholarship that already exists that can help us grasp economics from non-Eurocentric perspectives. Through such scholarship, we can gain an enriched understanding of capitalism and its relationship to exploitation, colonialism, and racialization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return Business Finance, FIL 240-001, Spring 2026, Lecture 22 Type: mp3 audio file ©2026

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ViVE '26: Aegis Ventures' John Beadle on the Economics of Consumer Health Live from ViVE '26, John Beadle, Managing Partner and Co-Founder of Aegis Ventures, helps Jared understand the economics of consumer-driven health. Jon discusses the shift to consumer health through the eyes of an investor, where the money's going in 2026, and how several solutions in the Aegis portfolio are reframing what ""patient-centric"" really means.  Find all of our network podcasts on your favorite podcast platforms and be sure to subscribe and like us. Learn more at www.healthcarenowradio.com/listen/

It was 57 percent state owned, but that's to change with this deal, reported to be worth more than 1.6 billion. For the details our Economics and Public Affairs Editor David Murphy.

The U.S. navy begins its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are signs of further dialogue which have helped crude prices to drop back under $100 per barrel. President Trump says the “appropriate people” in Tehran have communicated that they want to strike a deal. The optimism is felt on Wall Street with the S&P 500 erasing its losses since the start of the conflict while Asian equities are also in the green overnight. In luxury news, LVMH sales miss quarterly expectations as the Iran crisis weighs. The firm's U.S. shares closed 3 per cent in the red.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What's likely to happen to supply chains around the world with the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? What kind of price increases could we see? We'll break it down with Tibor Besedes, Professor of Economics at Georgia Institute of Technology.

He arrived in America as a child with no English. He was mistakenly sent to a school for juvenile delinquents. He faced rampant prejudice--yet Jensen Huang, the under-the-radar CEO of NVIDIA, became a catalyzing figure behind the AI revolution and built the most valuable company in the world. Listen as journalist Stephen Witt speaks with EconTalk's Russ Roberts about how Jensen pivoted from manufacturing processing units for video games to leveraging their capacity into astonishing computing power and speed. They analyze why Huang bet so heavily on AI when no one else did, and why NVIDIA processors enjoyed almost unrivalled market dominance for so long. They also explore Huang's unique way of thinking and problem-solving—as well as his temperamental leadership style.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson shares his perspective on why investors should position for a stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why equity investors – sometimes – need to look away from the headlines.It's Monday, April 13th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Today I want to talk about something I think a lot of investors are struggling with right now – and that's timing. When I talk to people, markets still feel fragile to most. There's uncertainty around geopolitics, central banks, oil… You name it. But when I look at what the market is actually doing; not what it feels like, but what it's telling us – I come away with a very different conclusion. The market is further along than most people think in this correction.In fact, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen the S&P 500 bounce meaningfully. Almost 7 percent from the lows after holding that critical 6300 to 6500 range that we've been focused on. To me, that's not random. That's the market carving out a low ahead of an all-clear signal. And stepping back, my broader view hasn't changed.I still think we're in a new bull market that began last April, coming out of that rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. This correction is part of that cycle; not the end of it. And importantly, a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done.Valuations have compressed significantly. Forward price/earnings multiples have fallen about 18 percent from top to bottom. And beneath the surface, more than half of stocks are down 20 percent or more. That's a market that has already discounted a lot of risk – whether it's the war, private credit concerns, or AI disruption.At the same time, earnings are moving in the opposite direction. Trailing earnings growth is running around 15 percent, and forward earnings growth is up over 20 percent. That combination of falling multiples and rising earnings is a classic bull market correction behavior. Not a bear market. And that's why I think many are misreading this environment.One area where I think that's especially clear is energy. If you look at the price action, energy stocks appear to have already peaked in relative terms. That's often a signal that the underlying commodity – in this case oil – may also be peaking. Or at least it's stabilizing.Which brings me to what I think is really driving volatility now: rates.We're back in a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated. That means higher rates are a headwind for equities again, and the recent hawkish tone from central banks that's focused on inflation is creating tighter financial conditions. In my view, that's the final hurdle. Not the war. Not oil. But monetary policy. And here's the interesting part. Tightening financial conditions are also what ultimately force central banks to pivot. So the very thing creating anxiety today may be what sets up relief tomorrow.Now, if we're in the later stages of this correction, the next question is positioning. For me, it's still about a barbell. On one side, I like cyclicals like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary – where the earnings remain strong and valuations have reset. On the other side is quality growth. In particularly the hyperscalers; where sentiment has been washed out, but fundamentals remain intact. That combination has worked well off the lows so far, and I think it continues to make sense here.When I zoom out even further, there's a bigger theme developing as well. And that's the rebalancing of the economy, a core theme we discussed in our 2026 outlook back in November. We're starting to see hard evidence that growth is shifting, from the public to the private economy. Private payrolls are strengthening, capital investment is picking up, and companies are behaving as if the current uncertainty is temporary – not structural. This is the rolling recovery on track.At the same time, AI is acting more as a margin tailwind than a disruption, at least in the near term. And this supports operating leverage across many industries. All of that reinforces my view that the recovery is real. And still has room to run.So when I put it all together, here's where I land:The market has already discounted a lot of bad news. It's adjusted valuations, reset positioning, and absorbed market risks. What risk remains is policy, and how long rates and liquidity stay restrictive. But markets don't wait for clarity on that. They move ahead of it.So, here's my advice. Take advantage of any further worries and put capital to work before it's obvious. Because the market waits for no one.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Mohamed A. El-Erian, senior global fellow at The Lauder Institute and practice professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, chief economic advisor at Allianz, chair of Gramercy Funds Management, contributing editor at the Financial Times and columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and the author of several books, including Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World (Simon & Schuster UK, 2023), offers his analysis of the latest inflation numbers, and the effect of the Iran war on inflation and the economy more broadly, both in the US and globally. Photo: Gas prices are displayed at the pump at a gas station in the Hamilton Heights neighborhood in the Manhattan borough of New York on March 31, 2026. (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU / AFP via Getty Images)    

Will attacking Iran be seen in hindsight as the first military action of World War III? Plus- a major new study shows summers in many places are already as much as a month longer as climate change accelerates and amplifies.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Keith explores how long-running social and economic shifts are redefining the American Dream—especially for younger adults who are putting off milestones like moving out, starting families, and buying homes.  He connects these trends to today's housing scarcity, elongated renter stage, and what that means for long-term rental demand and real estate investors. Keith also zooms out to place the current moment in the sweep of American history, then welcomes Redfin Chief Economist Dr. Daryl Fairweather for a data-driven conversation on affordability, supply constraints, renting versus owning, and how demographic changes could shape the next wave of opportunities in both ownership and rental markets. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/601 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Unlock truly passive real estate income—visit flockhomes.com/GRE today to see if your properties qualify for a 721 exchange with Flock Homes. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn just how far behind today's 30 year olds are then American history by decade as the nation approaches its 250th birthday. Finally, a conversation about what's next for the housing market with Redfin's chief economist Darrell fairweather today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:27   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android. Listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Keith Weinhold  1:10   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Speaker 1  1:44   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:54   Welcome to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 almost nobody talks about a really important story going on in America today. And I find this really astonishing. I mean, you could almost never think of America the same way again, as you'll hear while you've got these other headlines out there, constantly sucking oxygen out of the room, like decisions from the White House and inflation and wars. One big story. It moves so slowly that it kind of creeps up on you. It is the jaw dropping change in American society over the last 40 years. And then we'll discuss its seismic changes for real estate. And this is sourced from a Census Bureau supplement. It's about how fewer us adults reach typical life milestones by age 30, and this is partly because more adults opt for college than in previous generations. Oh, well, college doesn't sound like such a bad thing. I'll get to that. And by the way, 30 is an age that has come and gone for me, so I've lived through it. We're looking at a period from 1985 to 2025 so 40 years first, it's those that live on their own. In 1985 it was 83% today it's just 67% so then the percentage that don't live on their own and probably live with their parents or roommates, that has doubled. You see even more drastic declines for other milestones since 1985 those that have ever married from 77% down to 45% those that live with a child and the responsibility that this entails that's fallen from 59% down to 36% and those that own a home 48 down to 29% and again, this is for all 30 year olds since 1985 this steady, sliding, relentless decline of those who live on their own, are married, have a child, or own a home, is pretty stunning, and this is inside the most powerful nation on Earth. And here's the thing, this pattern from about 40 years ago, it unabatedly crosses through booms and busts and bubbles and bailouts, sort of like it didn't even notice those things. Somewhat ironically, what's grown during this time is the percentage that have a bachelor's degree. It's gone from 25 up to 43% so therefore, here we. Are. We've got this generation that's better educated than ever, and yet more of them are stuck down on the launch pad. It's like we built better rockets yet we can't light the fuse. And before I help you make sense of this and tell you what I believe the main force behind it to be, you just got to consider what an unfathomable aberration this has all become. At age 25 James Madison was the key architect of the US Constitution. A lot of constitution signers were in their 20s and 30s. At age 21 Steve Jobs started Apple in a garage at 20 Bill Gates co founded Microsoft at 19 Mark Zuckerberg built Facebook in a dorm room. And sure, some of these are exceptional examples, but these people committed early, and then they figured it out on the fly.   Keith Weinhold  5:59   Well, what about women? The US birth rate has hit an all time record low, because today, nearly half of 30 year old women are still child free. Okay, so some of this is logical. You can connect a few dots here more time in school, yeah, all right, that means later marriages and later kids. Sure, student debt that equals financial Gravity Boots that keep you in place. Urban living means smaller spaces. But when you stack all this together, like I just laid out later, it's not just later anymore. It is really later. That is the huge change that really startles you when you put all of this together and again, remember, over this same time span, 1985 to today, I've mentioned before how the average age of the first time homebuyer has ballooned from 29 up to 40. I mean 40 that can really take some time to sink in. And again, that's just the average in high cost housing areas. This number could be 45 or higher. I mean, sheesh, the starter home is now like a midlife purchase, and it's made right around the time that your back starts to make decisions for you, consider where we are here now, the term home ownership that is increasingly linked to older people. Those things home ownership and older people are increasingly synonymous terms. Now, owning a home, it's like a luxury good for the already established. I mean, it is pretty jaw dropping. And one contributor to these friends is the lack of available housing supply, still a 60 to 70% collapse in some populous northeast states, but really something like that. That's just a small thing. When you amalgamate it all together, it's become cultural really. The bigger trend that underlies this decline in meeting life milestones at age 30 is that long term true inflation exceeds wage increases over the decades, but there are big social shifts too. And by the way, I left my parents home for good at age 23 and some surely do so younger than I did marriage and children, they are the classic triggers to buy a house, and the longer that these type of milestones get postponed, the more likely people are to favor then flexibility over committing to a mortgage, and this then means that there is an elongated renter stage of life. Renters are no longer just passing through they're no longer just graduated from college, renting a year or two and then buying a home. Instead, they are planting flags and really pounding in stakes. And there are countless surveys that show that renters value the ability of being able to relocate without the hassle of having to sell a house. And on top of all of these trends as America ages overall, something really interesting starts to happen. This is why single family rentals have really begun to shine over the past few years, and why you had this Advent and popularity of new build and build to rent rental properties coming onto the market because single families give people the feeling of home and space and privacy and a backyard for the dog, but yet at the same time, it's commitment light, a lighter version. Now apartments benefit too, of course, and for investors, this isn't just. The trend, this is a long term tailwind, fewer life transitions. It means more stable occupancy and longer renter life cycles that lead to fewer turnovers and vacancies and repairs, so less churn, more consistency and better predictability. So the bottom line here is that this delay of life milestones, it's not subtle. It is pretty seismic, and increasingly people say that the American dream no longer even includes home ownership. Demography is destiny, and they must rent from you. And here at GRE we invest like these trends are real, but I really want to emphasize that this elongated renter stage of life really is a long term, long tail phenomenon. And I want to emphasize that because, like I said last week, in the short term, we really aren't seeing any significant rent increases due to that affordability constraint. Now we're nearly five years after America had a big wave of consumer inflation, and that really hurt kind of people this age that I'm talking about, people in their 20s and 30s, that really hurt them the most because they don't own assets that compound with the concurrent asset price inflation, they only had to deal with the bad stuff, the consumer price inflation.    Keith Weinhold  11:30   And as America approaches its 250th birthday, let's think about how this era compares to other decades. And by the way, do you know what a 250th anniversary is called? I put a line about this in my newsletter that I sent you the other day. It is called a semiquincentennial, or, I guess, semi quincentennial. I don't think that anyone's going to be using that word after the fireworks. Semiquincentennial. That sounds like a word that an Economic Committee came up with during a recession to kind of mask a worse problem or something. I suppose that the etymology makes sense. If you break it down, quincentennial would be 500 and semi would be half of 500 in any case, as you try to compare this American era to others, listen to this from the parallel truth. This is about three minutes long, and then I'll come back to comment. It's America by decade, starting all the way back in the 1770s This is a decent summary here, although it can get unnecessarily gloomy at times.   Speaker 2  12:41   Imagine you could live in the United States one decade at a time, not the America you see in movies, not the America in textbooks, but the real America. Let's start with the 1770s the decade of independence. This is not a freedom story, yet. It's a war story. Most people are farmers, roads are mud, medicine is almost nothing. And if you're a young man, your future is simple, fight or starve. Then came the 1800s The decade of expansion. America is still small, but it's hungry, new land, new states, New promises, but there is also growing slavery. Native tribes are being pushed out, and the country is quietly building a conflict it can't avoid. Now it's the 1860s the decade America almost died. There is civil war, Brother versus brother. Cities are burning. If you lived here, you didn't watch history, you survived it. Next is the 1900s The decade of industrial America, factories, railroads, steel, oil. The country becomes a machine. Cities explode with workers, but life is brutal, long hours, dirty air, child labor, you might earn money, but you will pay with your health. It's the 1920s now, the decade of jazz and madness. This is America's first big party decade, cars, radio, Hollywood. Everyone thinks the future is unstoppable. Then came the 1930s the decade the party ended. The Great Depression happens, banks collapse and jobs disappear. People line up for bread. A man with a suit could be broke in one week. This decade teaches America one lesson, that money is not real until it's in your hand. It's the 1940s now the decade America became the world's boss. World War Two turns the US into the world's factory. While Europe is burning, America is building. And when the war ends, America comes out richer than anyone in history. It's the 1950s the decade of the American dream, suburbs, big houses, one salary supports a whole family, TV dinners, new cars, new highways. This is the decade America sells the world the idea of perfect life. Next came 1960s the decade of rebellion, civil rights, Vietnam assassinations, the country feels like it's splitting. You could be hopeful or terrified, sometimes both in the same week, 1970s was the decade the system started breaking, oil crisis, inflation, crime rate, and in 1971 America quietly changes money forever. The dollar stops being backed by gold. From this point onward, America runs on trust. It. The 1980s the decade of Wall Street, America, big business, big spending. The stock market becomes religion. America looks confident again, but the middle class starts weakening slowly. Then came the 1990s the decade America felt unstoppable. The Soviet Union has collapsed and the US feels untouchable. The internet is born. This is the decade where Americans truly believe that they have won. It's the 2000s now the decade of shock, 911, wars, fear, surveillance, then 2008 hits, banks crash, housing collapses, and America learns something painful. The people who caused the crisis don't pay for it. It's the 2000s and 10s, the decade of the digital trap. Social media becomes reality, politics becomes war. Everyone is online, but nobody feels connected. The economy recovers, but normal people don't. And finally, it's the 2020s. The decade, chaos became normal. Pandemic changes everything. Supply chains are collapsing, inflation returns, AI arrives and trust collapses. And by 2026 America is still rich, but it feels exhausted. People are working harder, owning less, and trusting nobody. And the strangest part is that America didn't collapse. It just slowly became a different country, not through invasion, not through revolution, but through decades of small changes that added up to a completely new reality. So the real question is, if you could choose one decade to live in? Which one would you pick?   Keith Weinhold  16:22    Yeah, which decade would you pick to live in? A lot of people say the 1950s where we had, like they touched on there the post war boom and how one salary could support an entire household. Some people say the 1990s because the Cold War ended, we had the start of Wide Internet use, and it's before you had these stark political divisions where people started to put party ahead of country. Now some people would probably say, Are you kidding me? I'd rather live in this decade right here. I can work from home more easily than I ever could have before. And I think you can make valid cases for all of those things. And speaking of this era, a quarter just ended, and we do this quarterly at most. It's our asset class rundown. Year over year, national home prices are only up about half of 1% per the nar 1% Case Shiller and totality, single family rent index shows just 1.3% rent growth. That's year over year. This quarter, the s, p5 100 was down 5% stocks of all types are down largely to the Iran war. The yield on the 10 year treasury note rose from 4.1 up to 4.3% due to higher inflation expectations. Why does that matter so much? That's what influences 30 year mortgage rates, which also rose from 6.2 up to 6.5% West Texas Intermediate oil prices soared from 59 bucks to over 100 last quarter. Gold hit an all time high of 5400 bucks in the quarter, and then fell to about 4600 by the end of the quarter. Other precious metals hit their all time peak. Bitcoin fell from 88k down to 68k That's the asset class rundown. I'll return with Redfin's chief economist, Dr Darrell fairweather and more. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  18:18   Let me throw out a simple idea. Sometimes doing nothing with your money is actually a decision. Leaving it parked might feel safe, but over time, purchasing power changes. So the conversation isn't about chasing returns, it's about intentionally placing money somewhere. Freedom, family investments works in real estate people use every day. Housing, senior communities, essential properties, things tied to living and not trends. Their freedom notes offering is built for accredited investors looking for structured income backed by real assets, not speculation. I am an investor with them myself. The Freedom team makes themselves available to walk through their approach, structure and operating philosophy so you can ask questions and determine alignment before moving forward. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, their historical operating philosophy has yielded 100% investor payouts backed by over 20 years of experience. If you want clarity before making any moves, book a clarity call@freedomfamilyinvestments.com or text family to 66 866, text the word family to 66 866,    Keith Weinhold  19:41   flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem, property or your whole portfolio through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now. Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre.   Robert Helms  20:16   Everybody. It's Robert Helms of the real estate guys radio program, so glad you found Keith Weinhold and get rich education, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:35   This week's guest is the chief economist of Redfin during the housing crisis. She worked at the Boston Fed, studying why homeowners enter foreclosure. Since 2023 she served at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She holds her BS from MIT, and she really knows her way around campuses, because she received her Master's and PhD in Economics at the University of Chicago, where she specialized in behavioral economics, that's interesting. Welcome to GRE. Darrell fairweather,   Daryl Fairweather  21:06   thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  21:08   Hey, Daryl. I'd like to get to some of the statistics later in the things that Redfin does and compiles, but tell us about the behavioral side of the housing market that's often so interesting and evencounterintuitive   Daryl Fairweather  21:22   yeah, one of the most interesting things about the housing market is that people get really emotional when making this huge financial decision. It's something that people don't have a lot of practice with. Most people maybe buy a home once or twice in their whole life. There's so much social weight that's put on it. It's the American dream. There's a lot of family pressure, and there's a lot of hurting behavior that can happen. People get swept up in the moment. Maybe they overbid on a home, or maybe they miss out because other people are avoiding the housing market. So it's a really interesting place to both study psychology and economics.   Keith Weinhold  21:56   Sure, most homeowners are just inexperienced at this whole thing. Yeah, behavioral economics, it really has this strong gravity in real estate. Maybe something that you've said touches on what I call the Zestimate illusion. A lot of times, sellers anchor their price to not just the Zillow estimate, but sometimes even the peak sale price in the whole neighborhood, and that's what they think that they should get for their home?   Daryl Fairweather  22:21   Yeah, that does happen quite a bit. And I don't think a lot of people realize how much those estimates can move once a home is listed. The list price tends to move that estimate quite a lot. So it's not a fact. And those estimates don't really know many details about the home, like what upgrades might have happened, or what internally is happening within the home, like if people have gotten new appliances or gotten a new air conditioning system, it doesn't really take those things into account. So you shouldn't just anchor off of the Redfin estimate. You should definitely talk to an agent. Look at the comps. The comps can tell you a lot in terms of what homes have sold for recently, and then track your local market in terms of whether it is going up in value or down in value, because those comps might be a little bit stale, and you have to adjust for where the market is right now.   Keith Weinhold  23:06   There's some really good points there. And when I think of the behavioral side of economics in the real estate market, another nascent thing that comes to mind Darrell, is the rate shock paralysis that really set in in America in 2022 mortgage rates are still historically on the low side. But few people think about it that way. They're really swayed by the recency bias   Daryl Fairweather  23:31   yes. And one thing to take into account, though, is how much home prices have gone up since the last time rates were this high. So if you're looking at the monthly mortgage payment and how much that is compared to people's monthly incomes, it is quite expensive to buy a home. In most metros, you cannot afford to buy a home on the local median income. There's only maybe four metros that are in the middle of the country where it's still affordable to buy a home on a middle class salary. So combined the rate and the price those mortgage payments are still quite expensive, although they have gotten slightly more affordable since last year because rates are slightly lower than last year, they did come up a bit with, you know, oil prices coming up, but still, compared to last year, rates are a bit lower and a bit more affordable to get a home.   Keith Weinhold  24:13   And of course, all this is besides the point that those 2021, mortgage rates, they were born out of a collapsing economy, and I don't think that we really want that either. But yes, to your point about affordability, that's been such a buzzword in the housing market for quite a while, and for good reason. It wasn't very long ago that we reached a 40 year low in affordability. Can you tell us about what can improve affordability next? Darrell or what's most likely to happen? For example, it seems like insurance rate increases have really leveled off.   Daryl Fairweather  24:50   Yes, the reason why affordability is so bad, especially in coastal cities, the places that have the most opportunities, is because of a lack of supply. Existing homeowners, they are fine. They like when their home goes up in value, but it really is a problem for first time homebuyers, when prices just keep climbing and when new housing gets proposed, it's often the existing homeowners who are blocking that housing from getting built, and so supply is constrained. You can see this very clearly in a place like San Francisco, which had a huge economic boom in the 2010s yet housing did not keep up with all of the job opportunities that were coming to the area, and when you have all these people moving in with higher incomes, it drives up prices when there isn't adequate supply. You take Austin as another example. Austin had a huge boom during the pandemic, but supply responded. Builders built, there was a lot of development that happened, and as a result, prices came right back down. They're still above where they were pre pandemic, but nowhere near the heights that we saw back in 2021 so it just goes to show that when you allow supply to get built, it does help keep prices more moderate and keep things more affordable.   Keith Weinhold  25:59   Yes, and nimbyism is rampant, is consumer inflation or some of the other big forces out there, for sure, but yes, this national dearth of supply something that's existed even well before the pandemic, for example, it's bounced back somewhat, but still not quite enough, and it's really part of what, in my opinion, has helped support housing prices, even when mortgage rates tripled back in 2022 Can you tell us more what you believe about the future of housing supply with all the data that you do with there at Redfin Daryl,   Daryl Fairweather  26:37   housing supply improved a bit during the pandemic, but we're still far below What we need in order to make housing more accessible to middle class people. But there are new challenges that are coming. One that you mentioned is insurance. Insurance costs are going up. So even if you have a fixed rate mortgage and you've locked that in, you still have to worry about the rising cost of ownership because of insurance costs are going up. Property taxes are going up in many places, and maintenance costs are increasing. So that is going to make home ownership, and just the cost of ownership in general, whether you're an investor or an owner occupant, more expensive moving forward. And that's going to vary depending on where you are. There going to be some parts of the country where insurance goes up much faster, like in Florida, and other parts where insurance will probably be more stable like in the Midwest and Great Lakes region. So it's important now even more so to really research the neighborhood, research the home, and figure out how those expenses could increase in the future.   Keith Weinhold  27:32   Yeah, here we are in this housing market where, you know, Darrell, I think of it in a lot of ways, is, you know, maybe for three years now, we've largely been stuck in the mud, much of it due to lower supply, where we have a lower overall proportion of both buyers and sellers.   Daryl Fairweather  27:48   Yeah, what's happening right now is really an hangover from the pandemic, because so many people locked in 3% mortgage rates during the pandemic, and if those homeowners were to sell and buy again. Even if they bought the same priced home, they would end up paying more in their monthly mortgage payment because of how much higher mortgage rates are, and that's holding back supply quite significantly. It's the reason why prices have not come down despite rates going up, is because the higher rates are holding back both demand and supply at the same time, and contributing to the overall lack of inventory that's out there,   Keith Weinhold  28:24   this aberration where we have a big proportion of American homeowners living in homes where if they tried to repurchase that home at today's terms, they couldn't even do it. To your point about people not wanting to move, and that's a big reason why they almost can't. They might pay more in rent elsewhere for a like property if they were to sell what they own, if those still locked in terms and Darrell here, I think, you know, our audience is largely real estate investors, a lot of them investing in one to four unit properties. So with what you're seeing there at Redfin. And I think a lot of us know that, yeah, rent growth has been pretty slow as well. What do you see for rents in 2026 and perhaps 2027   Daryl Fairweather  29:08   originally, when we went to go do our predictions for 2026 we said that rents were going to increase this year. Now, I think that rents will continue to stay flat, and that's because there's still a lack of demand for for sale housing. People are staying in the rental market, but people are overall tightening their budgets because they're worried about the economy. They're worried about inflation. So if they can, you know, get roommates or live with family, they're going to choose to do that to keep their overall expenses lower, which will reduce demand for both for sale housing and for rental housing. And I think a lot of home sellers, they've tried to sell their homes. We saw many people try to sell their homes last year and then end up delisting their homes, and they're trying again. We saw more of those people come back in January, but I think those people are going to continue to kind of try to test the market, be a bit disappointed that there isn't enough demand, and then some of. Up for sale housing will end up as rental housing. Just driving around my neighborhood, I see so many rental signs on single family homes that I never saw before, almost more for rent signs, and I'm seeing for sale signs, so that added inventory from these accidental landlords who would like to move but don't want to give up their mortgage rate is going to increase the supply of single family rentals, and that will mean more competition for those investors that are trying to rent out the homes.   Keith Weinhold  30:27   Talk to us about rental occupancy. That's something that we're seeing at a historic low in apartment buildings, for one thing. But can you talk to us about what you see for future occupancy levels of both residential one to fours and apartments. Going forward,   Daryl Fairweather  30:43   a lot of new supply came online during the pandemic, especially in places that build a lot of condos. Many one bedroom or zero bedroom condos got built, and then those are really difficult to rent out, because, you know, they're just not that attractive. We really have more of a shortage of types of housing that's appropriate for families and those one bedroom units that are really targeted at like affluent young people. There aren't that many affluent people right now, so they're they're difficult to rent out. I think that trend is pretty much over. We're not seeing too many more condos being developed because the condos that were developed during the pandemic are still having trouble finding owners or finding renters in those apartment buildings. Now, I think we're going to start to see an uptick in single family rental vacancy, because I think a lot of those people who would like to sell their homes are having trouble selling their homes because of how mortgage rates are and how skittish people are about making a commitment to ownership right now, and they're going to alternatively try to rent out those and that will mean more availability of those rentals and not as much pressure on rents to go up in that segment of the market.   Keith Weinhold  31:51   Woe for the builder that targeted young, affluent types, they don't really exist so much anymore. That's really pretty interesting. Well, Darrell, do you have any last thoughts overall about the housing market? Maybe something I didn't think about asking you that's really important, whether that's for an investor or a prospective homeowner.    Daryl Fairweather  32:12   Yeah, I think if I was an investor right now, I would be paying attention to what economists and housing people call the silver tsunami that's older generations starting to sell their homes. We did a study recently that showed that people who are 70 years and above have as much wealth and housing as middle aged people, which is the first time that group has exceeded in terms of the wealth that they hold. And if you're 70 plus, there's definitely a clock ticking on how long you're going to stay in that home, which means that a lot of new inventory will become available in those homes. They probably need work. They probably need some renovations, and that could be a really great opportunity for an investor to buy a home that maybe has been neglected for a while because it's been a senior living in there who hasn't been really keeping it up to date. You can renovate it and perhaps sell it again to a younger buyer by doing some updates and make a nice profit there.    Speaker 3  33:03   Oh, well, Daryl, this has been a great update laced with plenty of practical things that someone can actually do. Do you have a resource you'd like to share in case our audience would like to connect?   Daryl Fairweather  33:16   Yes, you can find me basically on any social media channel. I'd recommend checking you out on YouTube to start. And then if you would like data on what's happening in your local housing market, you can check out the Redfin data center. Just Google Redfin data center, it'll bring you right there. And you can find lots of local data on your market,   Keith Weinhold  33:34   Daryl Fairweather. It's been great having you here on the show.   Daryl Fairweather  33:37    Thank you.   Keith Weinhold  33:44   Yeah, insightful material from Dr Darrell fairweather today, no end to the housing scarcity in sight. She says, rents continue to stay flat, partly due to this accidental landlord. They didn't plan to be a landlord, but they need to move and yet they don't want to sell the single family home that they got with a good owner occupied financing a few years ago. And the reason that's a headwind for single family investors, because it keeps more rental supply on the market. Last week, I touched on how you should not expect rent increases in the near term, I own a lot of single family rentals myself, and I am not getting rent increases. It's not so much that single family vacancies are high now, but apartment building vacancies are high. That fact alone that actually does hurt the single family rental market a little, because even though a renter might desire a single family, and maybe you think, Well, an apartment couldn't compete with that feeling. But yet, if an apartment is so much cheaper than the single family, and they often are now, well then that renter will go for the cheap apartment instead the one. You can think of Redfin is that they're part Zillow, part real estate agent, and part data company, and they can give you early signals on things like buyer demand and price direction and days on market, those types of indicators. So for the latest housing market research and news, you can do a search for the Redfin data center, and then for Daryl, start on YouTube. You can follow her on x at fairweather PhD, thanks to Dr Darrell fairweather today, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 5  35:36   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively to   Keith Weinhold  35:56   the preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com  

Doubts about the international dominance of the dollar are only growing amid worries about tariffs, political dysfunction, and fraying international alliances. Will the dollar continue to reign supreme? In Money Beyond Borders, the leading authority on international currencies, Barry Eichengreen, puts the dollar's prospects in deep historical perspective by chronicling the entire history of cross-border currencies, from the invention of coins in the seventh century BCE to the cryptocurrencies of today and the central bank digital currencies of tomorrow. Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto (Princeton University Press, 2026) recounts how Greek and Roman coins became the first true international currencies. It tells how the Florentine gold florin became the "greenback of the Renaissance," and how it was succeeded by Spanish silver and a Dutch fiat currency. The book explains why the British pound dominated the international economy in the nineteenth century, why the dollar rose to the top during World War II, and why the dollar has survived predictions of the imminent loss of its preeminence since the 1970s. The long history of international currencies shows that the same factors that encourage their widespread use eventually lead to their abandonment. Money Beyond Borders makes a powerful case that the dollar is now on the downside of this cycle, and it considers who the winners and losers will be when there is flight away from the greenback. Revealing important patterns in the life cycles of international currencies over the past 2,500 years, the book offers valuable lessons and insights about how currencies rise--and why they fall. Barry Eichengreen is the George C. and Helen N. Pardee Chair and Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Caleb Zakarin is the CEO and Publisher of the New Books Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Doubts about the international dominance of the dollar are only growing amid worries about tariffs, political dysfunction, and fraying international alliances. Will the dollar continue to reign supreme? In Money Beyond Borders, the leading authority on international currencies, Barry Eichengreen, puts the dollar's prospects in deep historical perspective by chronicling the entire history of cross-border currencies, from the invention of coins in the seventh century BCE to the cryptocurrencies of today and the central bank digital currencies of tomorrow. Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto (Princeton University Press, 2026) recounts how Greek and Roman coins became the first true international currencies. It tells how the Florentine gold florin became the "greenback of the Renaissance," and how it was succeeded by Spanish silver and a Dutch fiat currency. The book explains why the British pound dominated the international economy in the nineteenth century, why the dollar rose to the top during World War II, and why the dollar has survived predictions of the imminent loss of its preeminence since the 1970s. The long history of international currencies shows that the same factors that encourage their widespread use eventually lead to their abandonment. Money Beyond Borders makes a powerful case that the dollar is now on the downside of this cycle, and it considers who the winners and losers will be when there is flight away from the greenback. Revealing important patterns in the life cycles of international currencies over the past 2,500 years, the book offers valuable lessons and insights about how currencies rise--and why they fall. Barry Eichengreen is the George C. and Helen N. Pardee Chair and Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Caleb Zakarin is the CEO and Publisher of the New Books Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history

Send us Fan MailGlobalization and global trade have been a top topic of discussion of late. In this episode I talk with Chris Brigham, a Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein, on their recent research piece Trading Places - The Future of Global Trade. We discuss the key findings of the research and if the current state of the Middle East and Iran impact his conclusions. We discuss how companies are thinking about supply chains and what investors should do within portfolios. Chris also shares his views of currency and the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency.With any questions or comments, or to discuss your own financial situation, I can be reached at marc.penziner@bernstein.com or 212-969-6655.The information presented and opinions expressed are solely the views of the podcast host commentator and their guest speaker(s).  AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this podcast. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation.

A radical macroeconomic experiment is under way at exactly the moment the US external position is showing signs of real stress.Gilles Moëc, Chief Economist at AXA, has written a chapter in the fourth Paris Report, published jointly by CEPR and Bruegel, on stablecoins: what they are, why the US government is so keen to promote them, and what risks they carry. His argument is that stablecoins are a fast-growing digital asset backed almost entirely by short-dated US government debt. When investors buy a dollar stablecoin, they are effectively buying into a US T-bill at zero interest; the platform keeps the yield. The US government likes this because it draws global savings into dollar assets at minimal cost, extending the dollar's reach and helping fund the deficit. But the regulatory framework has a three-year grace period and leaves supervision partly to the states, which compete to attract platforms. And there's the historical parallel: find out how the National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 give us an insight into the attraction, and risks, of using stablecoins in this way.The report discussed in this series of episodes:Rey, Hélène, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds). 2026. The New Global Imbalances. Paris Report 4. CEPR Press and Bruegel. Free to download at cepr.org.The chapter discussed in this episode:Moëc, Gilles. 2026. "Stablecoins and global imbalances: Attempting to preserve the US exorbitant privilege." In Rey, Weder di Mauro, and Zettelmeyer (eds), The New Global Imbalances. Paris Report 4. CEPR Press and Bruegel. Chapter 9, p. 210.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Gilles Moëc. 2026. "Stablecoins and Global Imbalances." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About Paris Report 4The fourth Paris Report, The New Global Imbalances, is a joint publication of CEPR and Bruegel. It was edited by Hélène Rey (London Business School and CEPR), Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR, and President of CEPR), and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Bruegel and CEPR). The report examines how, in a high-debt and fragmented world, excess savings, rising surpluses, and rising deficits pose a risk to stability and undermine the global trading system. It is free to download at cepr.org.About the guestGilles Moëc is Chief Economist at AXA and Head of AXA Research. He previously held senior roles at in the French civil service, Banque de France, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. His research covers macroeconomics, monetary policy, and the European economy.Research cited in this episodeStablecoins are privately issued digital tokens whose value is pegged to an existing fiat currency, typically the dollar, and backed by safe and liquid assets, typically short-dated US Treasury bills. Unlike most cryptocurrencies, they are designed to maintain a stable exchange rate with the pegged currency. Platforms issue the tokens and invest the cash received in T-bills, keeping the interest for themselves; holders receive no yield. Stablecoin platforms may have absorbed roughly twenty to twenty-five percent of net US T-bill issuance.The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) is the US federal legislation organising the stablecoin market. It requires platforms to hold back-to-back liquid assets as reserves and establishes common minimum standards across states. Regulatory competition across states means platforms can seek the most permissive jurisdiction. European regulation, MiCA, is more detailed and already in force but has not yet generated European platforms.Exorbitant privilege describes the advantage the US gains from issuing the world's dominant reserve currency. For decades, foreigners were content to hold low-yielding dollar assets while Americans invested in higher-returning foreign assets; the result was a positive US income balance despite a large trade deficit. In 2024, for the first time in modern records, the income balance turned negative: the US was paying more on its foreign liabilities than it was earning on its foreign assets. The National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 created a system of private national banks that issued dollar banknotes backed by US government bonds. The structure is the closest historical parallel to today's stablecoin framework: private platforms issuing dollar-denominated tokens backed by government debt. The system required over-collateralisation (one hundred and ten dollars of bonds for every one hundred dollars of notes) and included a Treasury backstop. Milton Friedman, in his Monetary History of the United States, identified the key flaw: money supply became tied to the quantity of public debt rather than the needs of the economy. The system was replaced by the Federal Reserve in 1913.De-dollarisation refers to the trend in some countries toward conducting trade and holding reserves in currencies other than the dollar. Moëc notes examples such as Iranian demands for non-dollar payments for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Stablecoins work against this trend by making dollar access easier and cheaper for people in developing countries with weak or distrusted domestic financial systems; rather than buying dollars directly, they can buy a dollar-pegged token through a digital platform. More VoxTalks Economics episodesThis episode is the second of two published simultaneously to mark the launch of Paris Report 4. In the first episode, Maurice Obstfeld of the Peterson Institute for International Economics examines the history of global imbalances and what today's policymakers can learn from previous episodes. For an interview with two of the report's editors, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, on the problem of global imbalances, listen to The Sound of Economics, Bruegel's podcast. Available at bruegel.org.

Three times since the 1970s, global imbalances have grown large. In the 1980s, the US trade deficit ballooned under Volcker's tight money and Reagan's tax cuts and military spending. In the 2000s, a global savings glut and then a US housing credit boom pushed the deficit to 6% of GDP. Today, the imbalances are back. The US current account deficit stood at 3.9% of GDP in 2025. The policy medicine this time: tariffs.Maurice Obstfeld of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and CEPR has written a chapter in the fourth Paris Report, published jointly by CEPR and Bruegel, examining that history, how policymakers responded, and what it can tell us about the effectiveness of policy remedies in 2026. He tell Tim Phillips that blaming foreigners misdiagnoses the problem if the US saves too little and invests heavily. The gap has to be financed from abroad. Good policy for the new global imbalances would requires three actors to move together: fiscal consolidation in the US, stronger consumption in China, and more investment in Europe. All three would benefit, none are close to doing it. The longer the can is kicked, Obstfeld warns, the greater the risk that the resolution arrives the way it always has: not through policy, but through crisis.The report discussed in this series of episodes:Rey, Hélène, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds). 2026. The New Global Imbalances. Paris Report 4. CEPR Press and Bruegel. Free to download at cepr.org.The chapter discussed in this episode:Obstfeld, Maurice. 2026. "Global imbalances redux." In Rey, Weder di Mauro, and Zettelmeyer (eds), The New Global Imbalances. Paris Report 4. CEPR Press and Bruegel.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Maurice Obstfeld. 2026. “Global imballances redux”, VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About Paris Report 4The fourth Paris Report, The New Global Imbalances, is a joint publication of CEPR and Bruegel. It was edited by Hélène Rey (London Business School and CEPR), Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR, and President of CEPR), and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Bruegel and CEPR). The report examines how, in a high-debt and fragmented world, excess savings, rising surpluses, and rising deficits pose a risk to stability and undermine the global trading system. It is free to download at cepr.org.About the guestMaurice Obstfeld is Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Research Fellow of CEPR. He served as Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2015 to 2018. His research spans international finance, exchange rate economics, and macroeconomic policy. He is a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.Research cited in this episodeThe Plaza Accord (1985) was a joint agreement between the US, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets to depreciate the US dollar. It was negotiated because a surging dollar, driven by Volcker's tight monetary policy and the Reagan fiscal expansion, had pushed the US current account deficit to then-unprecedented levels and created severe competitive pressure on US manufacturing. The accord moved the dollar, but did not resolve the underlying imbalances; those were corrected by German reunification and the Japanese asset bubble, which were not planned by anyone.The Louvre Accord (1987) was a follow-up agreement among the same countries to stabilise the dollar once it had depreciated far enough. Obstfeld uses both episodes to illustrate that exchange rate agreements address the symptom, not the cause, and tend to sidestep the hard political decisions about fiscal policy.The global savings glut hypothesis, associated with Ben Bernanke, holds that rising savings outside the US in the early 2000s, particularly from Asian economies building dollar reserves after the Asian financial crisis and from oil exporters, depressed global interest rates and drove capital into US assets. Obstfeld argues that from around 2002 onward the better explanation is US demand pulling capital in: loose Fed policy, the housing boom, subprime lending, and equity extraction from rising home values all drove US spending higher, and the current account deteriorated as the dollar fell rather than rose.The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is US tax legislation that prevents the expiration of tax cuts that had been written into law, effectively delivering a tax reduction. Obstfeld points out that by lowering national saving it pushes the current account in the opposite direction to what the administration wants, partly undoing whatever modest deficit-reducing effect the tariffs might have through their revenue.The Draghi report and the Letta report are European policy documents calling for deeper integration, more investment, improved competitiveness, and a completion of the EU's capital markets and banking unions. Obstfeld cites them as pointing in the right direction for reducing Europe's current account surplus, alongside the defence spending increases that European countries are now pursuing.More VoxTalks Economics episodesThis episode is the first of two published simultaneously to mark the launch of Paris Report 4. In the second episode, Gilles Moëc, Chief Economist at AXA, explains why the US government is so keen to promote stablecoins and the risks they may pose to the financial system in the US and Europe.For an interview with two of the report's editors, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, on the problem of global imbalances, listen to The Sound of Economics, Bruegel's podcast. Available at bruegel.org.

The latest CPI numbers were... not good. And what hints does a Banner Health jobs report give about Arizona's healthcare sector? It's Money Monday again and Evan Taylor, associate professor of economics at the University of Arizona joins the show to discuss all the most imporant local, national, and global economic stories. 

Following failed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, Washington moves to blockade ships exiting or entering Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surge on the news while Asian markets move into the red. President Trump says the blockade is aimed at eliminating Iranian crude exports from the market. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is ousted after 16 years in power with Peter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party winning a two-thirds super majority vote.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Navigating Singapore’s evolving health insurance landscape. Synopsis: Every first Wednesday of the month, The Straits Times helps you make sense of health matters that affect you. The rules for Integrated Shield Plan (IP) riders changed on Apr 1, 2026. New mandates from the Ministry of Health mean that riders that offer nearly full coverage can no longer be sold. They have been replaced by plans that require higher out-of-pocket costs in exchange for lower premiums. These new riders promote greater accountability in controlling escalating healthcare expenses. If you have an existing IP rider, you might wonder if you should "grandfather" your current plan, switch to a new one to save on premiums, or perhaps do without one? If you are just starting your healthcare journey, you need to understand why MOH is removing deductible coverage and doubling the co-payment cap from $3,000 to $6,000. In this episode, host Joyce Teo engages with a private sector surgeon and a health economist to discuss the new landscape of health insurance, how to think about your future healthcare needs, and the crucial role of personal responsibility. The guests are Dr. Tan Yia Swam, a breast surgeon and former president of the Singapore Medical Association, and Dr. Akshar Saxena, an Assistant Professor of Economics at Nanyang Technological University. In the podcast, Dr Tan also addresses a common misconception that private sector doctors frequently overcharge. Highlights (click/tap above): 8:05 Knowing the difference between an elective surgery and an emergency one. 10:40 Addressing the public perception that some doctors overcharge patients… 15:20 On the importance of personal responsibility… 23:07 Dr Akshar on the impact of the Apr 1 changes on legacy riders 24:18 Dr Tan’s perspective on preparing for her future medical needs. Read Joyce Teo's stories: https://str.sg/JbxN Host: Joyce Teo (joyceteo@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Amirul Karim Executive producers: Ernest Luis and Lynda Hong Follow Health Check Podcast here and get notified for new episode drops: Channel: https://str.sg/JWaN Apple Podcasts: https://str.sg/JWRX Spotify: https://str.sg/JWaQ Feedback to: podcast@sph.com.sg --- Follow more ST podcast channels: All-in-one ST Podcasts channel: https://str.sg/wvz7 Get more updates: http://str.sg/stpodcasts The Usual Place Podcast YouTube: https://str.sg/theusualplacepodcast --- Get The Straits Times app, which has a dedicated podcast player section: The App Store: https://str.sg/icyB Google Play: https://str.sg/icyX --- #healthcheckSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The ‌United Kingdom Maritime ‌Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has been informed that maritime access ‌restrictions ‌are being enforced affecting Iranian ⁠ports and coastal areas, including ‌locations along the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, ⁠and ⁠Strait of Hormuz. This came into effect from 3pm (Irish time).This comes after this weekend's peace talks ended without a deal.Joining Shane to discuss is Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Is the EPA about to pass a back-door abortion ban? Will anyone who stands in the way of the right-wing Christo-fascist agenda end up being legally charged as terrorists?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What in the world prompted Melania to give her awkward denial of knowing Jeffrey Epstein? Plus- The latest from Kyiv from Veteran War Correspondent Phil Ittner.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Yascha Mounk and Andrés Velasco discuss why the current energy crisis won't repeat the 1970s—and what dangers lurk in today's financial markets. Andrés Velasco is the Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the co-editor, alongside Tim Besley and Irene Bucelli, of The London Consensus: Economic Principles for the 21st Century. In this week's conversation, Yascha Mounk and Andres Velasco discuss whether the Middle East war will trigger a 1970s-style economic crisis, why AI valuations could spark the next financial meltdown, and what signs to watch for in predicting future market crashes. If you have not yet signed up for our podcast, please do so now by following ⁠this link on your phone⁠. Email: leonora.barclay@persuasion.community Podcast production by Jack Shields and Leonora Barclay. Connect with us! ⁠Spotify⁠ | ⁠Apple⁠ | ⁠Google⁠ X: ⁠@Yascha_Mounk⁠ & ⁠@JoinPersuasion⁠ YouTube: ⁠Yascha Mounk⁠, ⁠Persuasion⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠Persuasion Community Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do bookstores choose the books they stock, and how does that affect what customers read? It may not seem like it, but every shelf in a bookstore is a highly valuable and contested piece of commercial real estate. And for every new book that a bookstore decides to stock, there are thousands of others that did not make the cut. So how do bookstores make those decisions? And how will the Planet Money book fare under the discerning eyes of the booksellers, the final gatekeepers in the long gauntlet of the publishing industry?Today on the show: the third episode in our series. Planet Money sets out to actually sell a book. We burrow behind the bookstore shelves to learn the secret codes that publishers use to try to convince booksellers to carry the book, from little mom and pops to airport juggernauts. There will be corporate intelligence networks, bargain bin shenanigans, and a giant industrial saw chewing up books by the thousands. Call it Pulp Non-fiction.Related:- Fisher Nash's Substack- Episode 1: Inside a BOOK auction- Episode 2: Our BOOK vs. the global supply chain - Series: Planet Money makes a bookLive show tour and book info. / Subscribe to Planet Money+Listen free: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.This episode was produced by Willa Rubin with help from Emma Peaslee. It was edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Music: NPR Source Audio - “A Peculiar Investigation,” “Round Round,” and “Neighbourhood Watcher.”To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

How do beekeepers make a living? Why is there so much honey fraud? And why did billions of bees suddenly disappear? To find out, guest host Steve Levitt activates his hive mind.   SOURCES: Alex Sapoznik, historian, reader in late medieval history at King's College London. Chris Hiatt, past president of the American Honey Producers Association, owner of Hiatt Honey Company. Michael Roberts, founding executive director of the Resnick Center for Food Law and Policy at U.C.L.A. Law School. Walter "Wally" Thurman, professor emeritus of agricultural economics at North Carolina State University.   RESOURCES: "U.S. honey is increasingly supplied through imports," by David Olsen (USDA Economic Research Service, 2018). "Economic Effects and Responses to Changes in Honey Bee Health," by Peyton Ferrier, Randal Rucker, Walter Thurman, and Michael Burgett (USDA Economic Research Service, 2018). "The Fable of the Bees: An Economic Investigation," by Steven Cheung (The Journal of Law and Economics, 1973). "Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables - Visualization: Meeting honey demand in the United States," (USDA Economic Research Service). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jimmy Donaldson (aka Mr. Beast) built a billion dollar content empire on YouTube. Today, Nicole breaks down how he actually did it, and more importantly, what lessons retail investors can apply to their own portfolio. Nicole pulls back the curtain on the Mr. Beast business model: why his YouTube videos are actually loss leaders, how Feastables became the real money maker, and why he intentionally lost money on his Amazon deal.   And if you think none of this applies to you because you have no interest in going viral? Nicole closes with three concrete ways to invest in the creator economy right now, no camera required. Check out Nicole's financial literacy course The Money School  Find a Financial Advisor or Financial Coach from Nicole's company Private Wealth Collective Watch video clips from the pod on Money Rehab's Instagram and Nicole Lapin's Instagram Here's what Nicole covers today: 00:00 Are you ready for some Money Rehab? 00:18 Mr. Beast By the Numbers 02:44 Jimmy Donaldson's Origin Story 04:13 How the Mr. Beast Business Model Actually Works 05:16 Economics of Feastables 06:00 The Beast Games Amazon Deal  08:08The $5.2 Billion Valuation  08:38 3 Ways to Invest in the Creator Economy 11:31 Tip You Can Take Straight to the Bank  All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.

Despite a historic disruption to global energy markets, the stock market remains resilient. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets suggests U.S. markets may offer a steady course in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today on the program: Trying to square conflicting market signals.It's Friday, April 10th at 2pm in London.At one level, it is all still very serious. The world remains in the midst of – and this is not an exaggeration – the worst disruption to global energy markets in history. One-sixth of global oil production remains trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. And the price of so-called ‘Dated Brent,' the price that you pay to get oil delivered in the near term, is over $130 a barrel. More than double its price at the start of the year.But markets? Well, year-to-date, U.S. stocks and bonds are roughly unchanged. Both have seen large swings only to return to about where they've started. An investor who only occasionally checks the markets could be forgiven for looking at their portfolio this weekend, assuming a pretty dull 2026, and going back to watching the Masters tournament.How do we square this? For stocks, two dynamics are important. First, despite oil prices, earnings estimates, especially in the United States, continue to move higher. Those estimates may prove wrong. But analysts have been incrementally more optimistic, particularly as technological investment continues at pace.Stocks are also fundamentally about the future. Current prices should reflect the discounted value of earnings between now and, well, forever. And so mathematically, if the longer-term outlook can hold up, a weak three-month period in the near term, say, due to energy disruption, simply doesn't have to matter as much – mathematically.Bonds, in contrast, are currently stuck between two pretty strong opposing forces. Higher inflation driven by tariffs and oil is typically bond negative. But bonds also tend to do well if there are higher risk to growth.And so, the key question is whether a prolonged energy shock finally forces central banks to prioritize these growth risks over currently elevated inflation. So far, 2026 has been anything but easy despite the lower headline changes in markets. Morgan Stanley data suggests that March was the second worst month for equity hedge funds in the last decade. And so, with some humility, we'd focus on three points.First, we think U.S. stocks and bonds have an advantage at the moment over their global peers. U.S. earnings growth is stronger. The U.S. economy is less energy sensitive. And the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, we think is more likely to cut rates faster if there's more weakness in growth.Second, we think the bond markets ultimately resolve their tensions at lower levels of yield. A quicker resolution would reduce inflation risks while a more prolonged disruption is going to weigh seriously on growth. The bond unfriendly middle ground, where we are now, simply seems unlikely to persist.Third, amidst the volatility, relative valuation still matters, and there are still interesting things. For example, credit spreads in Asia look extremely tight given the region's exposure to high oil prices. And by contrast, as my colleague Mike Wilson has commented on this program earlier, large cap technology stocks have derated significantly – and now trade at similar valuations to the consumer staple sector, despite having roughly three times the earnings growth as well as low energy exposure.We are once again heading into an uncertain weekend. But preferring U.S. markets, expecting lower yields, and trying to stay focused on relative value are a few of the ways we're trying to navigate it.Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Trump makes mob-style threats. Only instead of, “I'm going to mess up you and your family,” it's now, “A whole civilization will die tonight.” He must be impeached now…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

He's a pathological liar and a sociopath- but he's also losing his mind. After tens of thousands dead and the global economic disruption of the farcical attack on Iran, will enough Republicans do the right thing to remove Trump from office before he doubles-down on the next massive mistake?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.