Podcasts about Economics

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the Fire" Bernstein discuss the circular nature of the war with Iran, Trump's latest statements about discussions with Iran, Hasan Piker's viral statement saying that Mao Zedong was a great leader, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Upgrade your oral care with SMILE! Click www.twc.health/problem and use code PROBLEM for 10% Off on every order + Free Shipping for U.S. residents.Ridge - https://ridge.com/potp10Ultra - Don't sleep on Ultra Pouches. New customers get 15% Off with code PROBLEM at https://takeultra.com!IndaCloud - If you're 21 or older, get 40% OFF your first order + free shipping @IndaCloud with code [PROBLEM] at https://inda.shop/PROBLEM! #indacloudpodPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why market leadership is rotating beyond semiconductors and where investors may find opportunities despite near-term volatility.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will explain why the recent volatility in markets makes sense. It's Wednesday, July 22nd at 2 p.m. in New York. So, let's get after it. The broadening trade is back and it's gaining steam. We established this thesis last week. Importantly, there's a key reason this broadening trade is likely to continue. One of the more crowded areas of the market—semiconductors—has lost its momentum. As I've also noted before, this is not a call that the AI cycle is over. However, stocks do trade on the rate of change in growth, and expectations often reach a place where they can no longer surprise on the upside. Earnings revisions tend to get too stretched, and capital starts looking for the next place where fundamentals are improving but positioning is still light. This is no different than what happened to other leadership groups earlier this year in areas like precious metals and energy stocks. Remember, I first made the call for market broadening in our November outlook. My view is that the economy had moved into a new expansion after the rolling recession ended in April 2025. Markets were starting to catch on before the Iran conflict interrupted that trend. Investors piled back into the AI trade—especially semis—as oil prices jumped and Fed expectations shifted more hawkish. Back in June, I noted that those earnings revisions were likely nearing their peak. Hyperscale stocks starting to lag was the first indication. Since semis ultimately depend on hyperscaler spending, that divergence usually doesn't last. It doesn't mean the buildout is ending. However, the spenders may be moving from blind enthusiasm to a more disciplined phase as a means of addressing the market's concerns about falling cash flows. We've seen this pattern before. Since ChatGPT launched, this ebbing and flowing between the hyperscaler and semiconductor stocks has happened three times. This is the fourth such adjustment, during which the hyperscaler stocks are likely to outperform the semis. Since a few weeks back, hyperscalers have outperformed semiconductors by almost 30 percent. Another consequence is that the major averages may trade lower in the near term. When a crowded, large-cap leadership group is unwinding, the index can look choppy even as the market underneath is improving. That's the key distinction. The index may struggle, but the broadening can still work. Over the next month, don't be surprised if the S&P 500 trades as low as 7000 before it makes a move to 8000 by year-end. Use this weakness to add to equity positions. I continue to like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Biotech. Discretionary Goods remains one of the cleaner expressions of the broadening thesis. Wallet share is shifting from services back toward goods, goods pricing is improving, and earnings revisions are strengthening. Transports continue to show improving revisions as volumes stabilize and pricing gets better. Biotech is one of the more attractive lower-rate beneficiaries, especially if policy expectations are too hawkish, as I think they are. On that last point, the Fed backdrop matters. The June FOMC meeting told us forward guidance is going to be limited, and the inflation path is going to drive policy. The softer-than-expected inflation data last week should allow the Fed to stay on hold rather than hiking. It may take the bond market a few more data points to fully re-price this view. Bottom line, the broadening is in gear, but it may not feel comfortable because it's happening while the crowded momentum trade unwinds, a process that is likely unfinished. That's usually how rotations in market leadership work. Like spring, it's often: in like a lion and out like a lamb. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Hegseth wants five thousand dollars a person for the PentagonTrump eyes strikes on MaliMillions quit workingAOC fights merging our military with IsraelICE claims collapseSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Every authoritarian system begins by targeting someone else, until the circle widens to include critics, opponents, and ordinary citizens…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump may abandon his war for votesThe AI bubble endangers your savingsAmericans fear politicsGOP smuggles voter suppressionRFK downplays an explosive outbreakSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The report, titled Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism, was released as the Trump administration intensifies scrutiny of Cuba's role in the hemisphere and follows remarks by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last week's Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism. Also Thom examines the disturbing 80-day detention of Palestinian-American Salah Sarsur, a mosque president with no criminal record. Plus, the shocking connection between a Trump envoy and the Tate brothers, the major corporate brands bankrolling ICE, and a scientific warning about "super mosquitoes" evolving in our backyards.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

When President Trump took office in January of 2025, he signed 26 executive orders on the first day. In that pile of executive orders was one entitled: Protecting the Meaning and Value of American American Citizenship.  In it, the president directed that federal officials were not to issue documents recognizing United States citizenship to anyone who is born in the country to illegal immigrants or legal migrants here in a temporary capacity. This practice, known as birthright citizenship, has gathered a lot of attention over the last few years for the immigration chaos it has created. Last month, the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Barbara, decided that the executive order was unconstitutional. Now, conservatives are looking for ways to preserve American sovereignty. Here to discuss some ideas for how to make that happen is Roger Severino, Vice President of Economics and Public Policy, here at the Heritage Foundation. --- Roger Severino on X: https://x.com/RogerSeverino_--- Email us at heritageexplains@heritage.org 

This week Chris sits down with Jonathan Glick, founder of Incucap and one of the most active fund placement agents in the country. Over his career he's helped place more than $10 billion into real estate funds, and he says raising one has never been harder than it is right now. There are 600 to 1,000 funds chasing a shrinking pool of capital, real estate has lost a decade of ground to private credit, private equity and everything else, and most managers now spend two years raising a single fund. So his advice to almost everyone who calls wanting to start one is simple. Don't. They talk about who he'd actually back out of the 300-plus managers he meets a year, why he says most funds run in the red until their third or fourth one, and how the whole business has slid into a fee game, which changes the incentives dramatically. They get into where he thinks we are in the 18-year real estate cycle, why he believes vacancy is temporary and basis is forever, and the case that the next few years are the best time in over a decade to leave a big firm and build your own platform. Timestamps(0:00) Intro(0:54) Dallas, Talent Wars, and Why Asset Management Became the Hot Hire(7:12) Too Many Funds Chasing Too Little Capital(12:16) Why Glick Tells Almost Everyone: Don't Raise a Fund(16:58) From "Get an A" to "Score 100": Standing Out in a Crowded Market(25:45) Timing Traps and the Private-Equityization of Real Estate(37:17) Chasing 20% Returns Again: Rents, Costs, and the 18-Year Cycle(43:10) Basis Resets, the 401(k) Wave, and the Economics of a Fund(52:08) Sizing a Fund Right and the First-Timer Discount(56:33) Fixing Fundraising: Diligence, AI Backlash, and Old-School Wins(1:05:28) Founder Culture: The Summit, Loneliness, and a New Wave of Spinouts(1:12:03) Quitting Advice, Creators vs. Catchers, and the Attention Economy === Presented by Airshare:Trusted across the country for fractional ownership, jet cards, charter, and aircraft management, Airshare gives you a smarter way to fly private - over 25 years of experience, operating their own fleet, with the top safety ratings in the industry. Drive up to the FBO, walk on, and go. Go to https://flyairshare.com to learn more. === Sponsored by: True North AdvisorsTrue North Advisors is a multi-family office and private wealth advisory firm serving business owners, entrepreneurs, and families since 2000. With over $5.6 billion under management, they're real investors offering conflict-free counsel and portfolios built around your life. Learn more at https://truenorthadvisors.com Collateral PartnersCollateral Partners builds institutional-grade investor materials for private credit, private equity, real estate, and family office firms, the kind of marketing collateral that helps you close capital. Learn more at https://collateral.com/powers Relay Human CloudRelay Human Cloud gives you pre-vetted, fully managed global talent for up to 75% less than hiring locally. Your best people stop doing repetitive work and get back to the work that moves your company forward. Learn more at https://www.relayhumancloud.com/powers === Chris on Social Media:X: https://x.com/fortworthchrisInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepowerspodcastLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrispowersjr/ === Visit our website: https://www.powerspod.com/Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO

AI investment is reshaping the global outlook. In part one of this economic roundtable, our panel explores where the momentum is strongest — and where investment still needs to catch up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Seth Carpenter: And today is going to be our third quarter economic roundtable taking a wide-angle view on the global economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. Seth Carpenter: It's Monday, July 20th at 10am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since our last roundtable in April, the global economy has continued to face all sorts of shocks, a mix of resilience and friction. Inflation pressures have not disappeared. Energy and geopolitical risks have come up, they've receded, they've come back, they've receded all over the place But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about. And that is the AI-driven CapEx cycle. Michael, let me turn to you because the U.S. is a real focal point of all of this. Tell me a little bit about where Morgan Stanley Research is thinking about hyperscaler CapEx. How big it is? And then for you, when you think about the U.S. economy, just how big of a driver is it for what we're looking for in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, we continue to revise higher our estimates for hyperscaler and AI-related CapEx in the U.S. economy. We were thinking a little over a trillion for 2027. Now we're more like 1.2 - 1.3 trillion, maybe as high as 1.4 trillion in 2028. So, the level of hyperscaler spending continues to keep rising. The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow. But as you noted, it's still a major driver of momentum in the U.S. You would look at that headline number and think, "Wow, that's, you know, 3.5 percent or so of GDP. Must be a massive source of momentum for GDP growth." But roughly about 60 percent of that hyperscaler CapEx spending goes to items like computers and peripherals, equipment spending categories that have a very, very high import content. We still get a significant number that AI CapEx is probably contributing around 40 basis points to growth this year. Be a similar-sized amount perhaps next year.So, for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above 2 percent right now, maybe closer to 2.5 percent next year, that's a non-trivial amount. We just have to remember it's fueling growth around the world, just not here in the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, "Well, if it wasn't for AI CapEx, the U.S. economy wouldn't have grown at all." And that's clearly wrong, as you point out. But U.S. imports are necessarily exports from somewhere else. And, Chetan, if I can pull you into the story then, U.S. firms are buying a lot of AI-related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in your part of the world? And in particular, I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan, and maybe some other economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? Chetan Ahya: So, for Asia, this has definitely been a big boon. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming, and particularly for the ones which are exporting semiconductors to the U.S. They are seeing semiconductor exports growing by 90 percent. And when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductor exports, it's very tightly linked to the U.S. IT CapEx. And it's not surprising when Mike Gapen mentions about the imports going up. It's on the other side, helping Asia's exports quite meaningfully. So, so far, we've seen this benefiting Korea, number one, Taiwan, and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of U.S. AI CapEx. And of course, also not just U.S., but the other countries which are doing any little amount of CapEx on AI front, that's also helping these three economies in the region. Seth Carpenter: You've been doing a lot of work, Chetan, recently about how much the story can actually broaden out, that the AI CapEx cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story that there's a broader industrial cycle. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor of that story? Chetan Ahya: That's right, Seth. So, we are actually highlighting that there is a CapEx and industrial super cycle that is underway in Asia, and there are four components to this story. AI and semiconductors CapEx, which we just briefly discussed. Number two is energy. Number three is defense. And number four is industrial supply chain onshoring related CapEx. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most important part of this story, but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that... So, for Asia, AI and semiconductor companies CapEx is about $380 billion in 2026, but energy CapEx is going to be $900 billion. So, this is a far broader story than just AI for Asia. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me come back to you and to the U.S. then. So, isn't the growth story also broader than that as well domestically? So, what's going on in terms of consumer spending in the U.S., and is there a broader CapEx story in the U.S. as well? Michael Gapen: I would say, is it broader than that? I think maybe you could argue also it's narrower than that. Here's what I mean by that. As I noted AI CapEx contributing about 40 basis points to growth, it's certainly underpinning equity valuations in the U.S. and underpinning strong wealth creation. So about [$]180 trillion in household net worth in the U.S. About [$]55 trillion of that has been created in just the last five years alone, underpinned in part by AI-related spending and optimism about future profitability. That's really supported spending by upper income households. So, I think it's both investment-led and consumer-led, but they're inextricably linked. So, the positive for the U.S. is that it's providing a lot of resilience. The negative component of that is it feels like momentum in the U.S. is narrowly driven. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let me maybe jump in here from Europe to provide some perspective from the other side. So, I think it's a fair summary to say that AI investment is not yet, or maybe will never get there, dominating the business cycle. What we do have instead is an unusually consumption-driven expansion. That has to do not so much with an extraordinary strength of consumption, but more of an absence of other factors. Now, prospectively looking forward, we think the fiscal expansion might help lifting us a little bit. And then it is really the debate how much AI investment can arrive in Europe. For now, I would say it's probably a factor of 20 that separates European investment plans from the plans we know that exist for the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Let me stick with you then in Europe because you brought up fiscal as one of the factors going on here and where it's going… You and your team recently wrote a blue paper talking about what the outlook is for fiscal policy in Europe, and in particular, we had this era of cheap debt. Interest rates in Europe were low, at times negative. It was super easy to borrow. Not as much happened then. There's been a shift towards more fiscal expansion at the same time that interest rates have gone up, causing the cost of debt to go up. Feels like there's a lot of push and pull going on. Can you unpack for us a little bit what was in that paper you wrote, what's going on with fiscal policy in Europe, especially in Germany? And what it might mean over time for Euro-area countries? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, so I think fiscal policy in Europe really is looking at a regime shift. So, there is this very famous, probably in the U.S. even more so than here, notion that the Europeans have built a very comfortable welfare state. And that's true if you just look at the accounting from a GDP perspective. It's close to 50 percent that, you know, budgets are actually extended on welfare spending. And now you have three structural headwinds for any type of fiscal spend. So, one is aging related costs, you mentioned it already. Defense spending has to increase significantly, and the interest rate costs will also rise significantly. All of that means there will be very hard choices to be made. The one thing that actually could help here is growth. Growth is the one thing that's, for now at least, missing, at least in comparison to the U.S. It's probably half what we expect, what the U.S. colleagues think is in stake for the U.S., and a quarter or even less than that of what is there in Asia. So, growth is really the key, the solution, the answer to everything in Europe. More growth than just 1 percent, which is potential, would help solving that fiscal challenge. For now, it looks really, really like an uphill battle. Returning to Germany, it's the one country that has a very good fiscal starting position. They are pushing a lot but they're to some extent pushing a string. So, even with the German huge fiscal package, given that private sector investments so far are absent, doesn't get us a ton of growth. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, maybe I'll come back to you before we close part one of this roundtable. The AI CapEx cycle started with AI, broadened out further. How long do you expect this cycle to last? How durable can it be? And how might it compare to previous CapEx cycles? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we think this will be a multi-year CapEx cycle. And when we are thinking about the duration of the cycle, there are two things that I would keep in mind. Number one is that most of the drivers that we just discussed – the CapEx on AI, energy, defense, and industrial supply chain onshoring related investments – these are all structural drivers. So, we think these are going to continue for some more time. At this point of time, we have the visibility for this cycle to be lasting for three-four more years. And then the second point of framework that I would keep in mind is that the corporate balance sheets are in a pretty good shape. So, when you are thinking about the leverage in the private sector, you can look at both households and the corporate sector balance sheet. But since the cycle is CapEx driven, we are looking at the corporate balance sheets, and they are in a pretty good shape. Across the region, corporate debt to GDP is below where it was in 2019. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me, let me wrap up quickly with you. We talked about AI, AI CapEx. For now, that's a very strong demand story. When are we going to see a supply side of things coming from AI? Are you already seeing a big contribution to GDP and growth from productivity coming from AI? Michael Gapen: We are, but not outside of the high-tech sectors, and we're seeing limited, what I'll call labor market restructuring of tasks and occupations beyond high AI-exposed occupations. So right now, everything is still very isolated I think maybe as we get into 2029 and beyond, so as Chetan says, we probably have a three to four-year super cycle here around a build-out phase. Then we might see some of that broader-based diffusion to other non-tech sectors in the economy. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, for you, let's wrap up here. So, what is the state of play for the build-out in the CapEx cycle for AI in Europe? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's very early stages. As I said before, we really; we connected to all the industry experts or analysts covering the sector and the total plans are a factor of 20 below what we see in the U.S. by just the seven hyperscalers. So, I would say very fragmented, very small, in general. Not only AI. I think the one thing I would be looking at for any type of sign of revival, sign of growth is investment. The second would be investment. And you can guess what the third would be… Investments in the core countries. That's really what we need to see, and we haven't seen much in Germany or France on this front. Seth Carpenter:That's a great place for us to stop today. We talked about the real side of the economy, AI, CapEx, trade. Tomorrow we're going to come back, and we'll talk about how that growth outlook affects inflation. And once you start talking about growth and inflation, you got to talk about policy, and that's where we'll be tomorrow. Mike, Jens, and Chetan, thank you for joining today. And for the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for Part 2 of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

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This week, my wife Mallory joins me for only her second podcast appearance ever to break down everything from The Lab Offline Powered by Circle — our second annual 2-day in-person retreat for Lab members, hosted June 8–9 at Hotel Renegade in Boise, Idaho. Mallory planned essentially everything: seating charts, venue contracts, menus, swag, run of show. She's been at it for roughly 6 months. In this episode, we talk about: The full economics of running a community retreat (we lost $8,300, which is actually an improvement) How we took breakfast from a 4.8 to an 8.1 rating — and what we'd cut to reduce costs next year What ranked #1 for attendees 2 years running, and why trivia (our favorite activity) came in 7th Whether we'll keep doing this in Boise — and what Columbus, Toronto, and doing 2 events per year might look like By the end of this episode, you will have a clear picture of what it actually costs to run a high-quality community event, what's worth paying for, and what we'd do differently. Circle (event sponsor) Hotel Renegade Boise Craft and Commerce Conference The Lab Full transcript and show notes *** TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Cold open: people were moved, tears were shed (00:53) The Lab Offline explained: 2-day member retreat, goals, and agenda (06:44) Initial impressions: a reunion feeling, smoother logistics, zero fires (13:08) Attendee feedback numbers: 9.3/10 overall, 91% returning, 34% said underpriced (18:46) Event economics: $30,459 revenue, $38,800 costs, $8,300 loss (23:05) Top cost drivers: hotel catering, travel, venue rental, dinners (26:52) Planning challenges: acoustics, dietary restrictions, every decision is a trade-off (36:52) What to keep: assigned seating, Kat's Immunity to Change workshop, Fighting Off the Sleepies (42:04) What to improve: more mastermind sessions, less solo writing, better acoustics (47:49) Open question: should the event stay paired with Craft and Commerce? (53:49) The case for Columbus, 2 events per year, and an international option *** RECOMMENDED NEXT EPISODE #260: Detailed Breakdown: Our First Offline Event (And What We'll Do Differently Next Time) *** ASK CREATOR SCIENCE Submit your question here *** WHEN YOU'RE READY

Live July 20, 2026 | Yaron Brook Show(Season 12, Episode 127)Iran - What Next?; AI - China Coming; ICE; DSA; Vance & GDP; Achievement | Yaron Brook ShowIran After the Strike? China's AI Race, Socialist Delusions & The Fatal Misunderstanding of ProsperityWhat happens after Iran? Is China catching America in AI? Why are politicians—from the Left to the Right—still getting economics fundamentally wrong?In this wide-ranging live episode, Yaron Brook tackles the biggest geopolitical and philosophical questions shaping the future. From America's strategy toward Iran and the growing AI race with China to government interference in technology, ICE controversies, Democratic Socialists of America, JD Vance's critique of GDP, and what real human achievement actually means, this episode connects today's headlines to the deeper ideas driving them.Yaron also answers an outstanding slate of audience questions covering SpaceX, Trump, Reagan, welfare, Silicon Valley, Alex Epstein, capitalism, sanctions, Ayn Rand, Catholicism, Objectivism, commodity trading, financial markets, and much more.If you want analysis that goes beyond the headlines and gets to first principles, this episode is for you. Watch now: https://youtube.com/live/J8_hKMVNOH8Timestamps00:00 Introduction00:32 World Cup highlights & opening thoughts06:36 Upcoming events and seminars07:48 Iran developments and America's strategy15:32 AI breakthroughs, China, and the global race29:16 Government intervention in AI companies38:00 ICE assault investigation45:35 Democratic Socialists of America platform54:07 JD Vance, GDP, opioids & economic misunderstanding1:07:52 Poverty, consumerism & what GDP really measures1:12:05 Shipping innovation, satellites & global energy access1:18:10 Closing thoughtsLive Audience Questions1:28:15 Why did SpaceX stock fall so quickly after its IPO?1:28:23 Is Trump's refusal to apologize the secret to his political success?1:30:07 Why does altruism appeal to people who think in binaries?1:32:29 Does the welfare state prevent—or create—socialism?1:40:09 Why do people make their beliefs part of their identity?1:42:57 Do corrupt politicians still need capitalism to survive?1:45:01 What's the hardest part of teaching Ayn Rand?1:47:09 Why isn't New Hampshire another Silicon Valley?1:52:55 Has Alex Epstein changed the energy debate?1:54:09 Why did Trump strike Iran?1:58:08 Why doesn't Trump pursue Reagan-style tax cuts?1:59:53 Does Objectivism protect against despair and nihilism?2:01:24 Tom Brady, Jake Paul & the "sanction of the victim"2:02:53 Scholarship eligibility question2:03:14 Why are intellectuals embracing Catholicism?2:07:19 Are Trump's investment accounts really pro-capitalist?2:13:27 What would make Gulf states confront Iran?2:19:02 Why do wealthy elites promote welfare policies?2:24:14 Is trading with sanctioned nations moral?2:25:10 What did Reagan actually deregulate?2:26:49 What would markets look like under genuine capitalism?Like this episode?Subscribe, share it with friends, and become a Patreon supporter to access monthly AMAs, exclusive content, and commercial-free audio.#Iran #ChinaAI #ArtificialIntelligence #Trump #JDVance #economics #China #Politics #AynRand #Objectivism #Capitalism The Yaron Brook Show is Sponsored by[The Ayn Rand Institute](https://www.aynrand.org/starthere)[Energy Talking Points, featuring AlexAI, by Alex Epstein](https://alexepstein.substack.com/)[Express VPN](https://www.expressvpn.com/yaron)[Hendershott Wealth Management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4lfC...) &(https://hendershottwealth.com/ybs/)[Michael Williams & The Defenders of Capitalism Project](https://www.DefendersOfCapitalism.com)[Support the Show]( / yaronbrookshow )[Sponsor the Show](askyaron@yaronbrookshow.com/)[One-time donation](https://bit.ly/2RZOyJJ)Join the [Yaron Brook Show YouTube channel]( / @yaronbrook )Like what you hear? Like, share, and subscribe to stay updated on new videos and help promote the [Yaron Brook Show](https://bit.ly/3ztPxTx)Continue the discussion by following Yaron on [Twitter](https://bit.ly/3iMGl6z) and [Facebook](https://bit.ly/3vvWDDC )Want to learn more about Ayn Rand and Objectivism? Visit the [Ayn Rand Institute](https://bit.ly/35qoEC3)Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/yaron-brook-show--3276901/support.Yaron is the executive chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute and a world class speaker. He is the coauthor of the national best-seller Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government, Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Inequality and In Pursuit of Wealth: The Moral Case for Finance. He speaks around the world on a variety of topics including the morality of capitalism, Ayn Rand and her philosophy, finance and economics, and the value of inequality.

In this episode, Matt and Joseph sit down with Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, to discuss prediction markets. A prediction market is a kind of betting market, wherein people place bets on whether or not some future event is going to happen by investing in market shares associated with that event. If the event happens, the people who predicted it correctly get paid. If not, they lose the money they invested. So far, so good: all that is pretty normal for a betting market. But in the case of a prediction market, there is a further twist. Before the future comes to pass and the people who guessed it correctly get paid, there's a mathematical formula you can use, based on all the bets that have been placed so far, to determine what the probability of that event happening is. In other words, before the payout, the current prices of all shares in market give us the ability to subtly aggregate the wisdom of every individual speculator into a combined judgment about what is probably going to happen.So what, you might think. Well, it turns out that this system for forecasting the future is unusually accurate, particularly when it comes to making the most difficult predictions about the behavior of large, complex systems. And so, for several decades now, our guest has been thinking hard about how can we leverage the information provided by various prediction markets to assist with a wide range of challenging forecasting tasks that might nonetheless be important to do.Although prediction markets have mostly been set up, thus far, to determine the outcomes of things like elections or sporting events, Robin Hanson thinks they can be also be used for more ambitious purposes. One small-scale example is: the board of a public corporation could use a variation on a prediction market (called a decision market) to make decisions about whether to hire a new CEO. A bolder example would be a new system of government he calls futarchy, in which legislators abandon their role of drafting and passing legislation, and instead turn their attention to coming up with precise, measurable definitions of success. Each individual question about what policies to pass when can then be adjudicated by prediction and decision markets, which require measurable definitions of success to function.Robin Hanson is always abrim with fresh ideas, and it was a pleasure talking to him. I hope you enjoy our conversation.Matt Teichman Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Steve Hanke back to the show. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia's cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors. On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a fundamental driver. He also discusses the pressure on the Fed to monetize debt, which could fuel inflation and support gold. The conversation shifts to the broader commodity supercycle, fueled by deglobalization, underinvestment, and the need for larger precautionary inventories. Copper and tungsten are identified as clear bullish plays due to supply deficits. Hanke notes that high diesel prices are squeezing mining and agriculture, potentially raising output prices. He also touches on dollarization, recommending developing countries adopt the U.S. dollar to expand its use rather than de-dollarize. The interview concludes with Hanke emphasizing the importance of money supply growth as the key determinant of nominal GDP and inflation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:05 – Key Developments on Radar 00:04:58 – Oil Predictions vs Reality 00:10:53 – Inventory and Flow Analysis 00:14:40 – Crack Spreads and Refining 00:16:27 – Demand Destruction Dynamics 00:20:51 – Anticipated Oil Price Spike 00:22:32 – Long Oil Opportunity 00:27:37 – Gold Bull Market Outlook 00:29:38 – Central Bank Buying Drivers 00:45:54 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Interest-Waiting-Controversies-Additions/dp/3031633970 E-Mail: mailto:hanke@jhu.edu Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China's International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal's Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes. Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.

Subscribe to the podcastLast week, Rollo did an Ask Me Anything on Stacker News. We're using the same questions and having Slappy answer them.Rollo's AMALearn about Bitcoin at a trickleBitcoinTrickle.comSponsorLiberty MugsKeep in touch with us everywhere you areJoin our Telegram groupLike us on FacebookFollow us on Twitter: @libertymugs (Rollo), @Slappy_Jones_2Check us out on PatreonLearn everything you need to know about Bitcoin in just 10 hours10HoursofBitcoin.comPodcast version

Streamed live on Jul 12, 2026 The SITCH and ADAM Show! (Full Livestreams)New Movie, Anime and Game channel!    / @howtokillafranchise  

Welcome back to the Alt Goes Mainstream podcast.We were live from Berlin, which becomes the “capital of private capital” in June as the private equity's industry leaders make the annual pilgrimage to the city for one of the marquee private equity conferences, SuperReturn Berlin.Much of the SuperReturn conference is centered on fundraising. GPs take up every available space — from hotel rooms to Tiny Space cabins that line the parking spots on Budapester Strasse outside of the InterContinental conference venue — to conduct meetings with LPs.With Prosek Partners and former Bloomberg TV journalist Deirdre Bolton as my producer, along with her team, we took over a Tiny Space cabin to hold big conversations with some of the industry's leading alternative asset managers.Our first conversation was with Apax Co-CEOs Andrew Sillitoe and Mitch Truwit.Apax is one of the pioneers in the private equity industry. The firm's rich history dates back to the 1970s, when its founders, Alan Patricof (US), Sir Ronald Cohen (UK), and Maurice Tchénio (France), came together to establish the first US-UK partnership firm in private equity. During that time period, the firm backed Steve Jobs and the first iteration of Apple. The UK and US firms merged in 1981, laying the foundation for Apax.Today, Apax stands at over $80B in aggregate funds raised. The firm underwent its second leadership transition in 2014, when Andrew and Mitch were elected as Co-CEOs, succeeding Martin Halusa, who became Chairman.Apax sits in a unique position. They are a scaled platform that focuses on the middle market. They operate across three sectors, Tech, Services, and Digital / Consumer, infusing a digital DNA and value creation team into everything they do. Their platform spans “a mile wide and a mile deep,” which is what much of the conversation between Andrew, Mitch, and me unpacked.We had a fascinating discussion about the current state of private equity and the middle market, why Apax focuses on “density-driven business models,” why the firm focuses on carveouts in the middle market, what's underappreciated about the middle market, why it's important to “buy in the right neighborhood and fix it up,” and how the firm's core values of “having impact through insight and tenacity” drive every decision they make.BiosAndrew Sillitoe has been Co-CEO of Apax since 2014. He is Chairman of the Apax Global Investment Committee and the Digital Investment Committee, amongst others. He is also a member of the Apax Executive Committee. He has been based in London since joining the Firm in 1998, focusing on Tech & Telco investments.Andrew has been involved in a number of investments including Inmarsat, Intelsat, King, Orange Switzerland, TIVIT, TDC and Unilabs.Prior to joining Apax, Andrew was a consultant at LEK. Andrew holds an MA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Oxford and an MBA from INSEAD.BoardsAndrew has previously served on the boards of Inmarsat, King, Intelsat, Orange Switzerland and TDC.Mitch Truwit is Co-CEO of Apax, based in New York.Prior to joining Apax in 2006, Mitch was the President and CEO of Orbitz Worldwide between 2005 and 2006 and was the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of priceline.com between 2001 and 2005.Mitch is a graduate of Vassar College where he received a BA in Political Science. He also holds an MBA from the Harvard Business School.BoardsMitch serves as a Board member of Openlane and Trade Me. Prior boards include Advantage Sales & Marketing, Assured Partners, Dealer.com, Bankrate, Garda World, Hub International, Trader Canada, Boats Group and Quality Distribution Inc.Mitch serves on the charitable boards of the Apax Foundation, the John McEnroe Tennis Project, Posse and StreetSquash.Thanks, Andrew and Mitch, for a fascinating conversation and for sharing your expertise, wisdom, and passion at the intersection of investing and operating in private equity.Show Notes00:00 Meet Apax co-CEOs, Andrew Sillitoe and Mitch Truwit00:26 Andrew's Origins at Apax00:47 Private Equity Then vs Now01:25 Apax Growth and Values01:45 Curiosity as a Differentiator02:04 Mitch's Operator Background02:56 Why Mitch Joined Apax03:40 Defining the Middle Market04:14 Why Sub-Billion EV Works04:59 Middle Market Talent Gap05:20 Carve Outs as a Strategy05:29 TRADER Corporation - Canada App Turnaround06:12 Scaled Platform Advantage07:14 Digital DNA and AI Wave07:50 Top Line Growth Lever08:36 Add-ons and TAM Expansion09:33 ECI Case Study Roll Up10:07 Integration Over Collection10:28 Exit Options in a Bigger PE World10:59 Building for Multiple Buyers11:45 Fund Size Discipline12:34 Choosing Returns Over AUM13:16 Understanding Firm DNA14:01 Global Micro Investing14:49 Making Global Pods Work15:50 Scale Specialization Flexibility17:08 Where to Invest Now19:23 Buying Complexity for Value20:15 Moats and Investment Committee22:13 Why Middle Market Excites Them23:19 Future of PE and AI at Scale24:50 Impact Insight Tenacity Culture25:54 Obligation to Dissent Story26:55 Aspirational Brand Analogy27:48 Wrap Up and Thanks

What happens when a poet who survived prison sits down with the world's oldest war story--and reads it in three sleepless, wandering days? In this second episode of the EconTalk Book Club on the Iliad, Dwayne Betts and EconTalk host Russ Roberts trade their impressions of the Iliad, discovering it's less about war than about fathers, friendship, and the stubborn dignity people find inside fates they can't escape. Betts connects Achilles's rage and grief to his own experience of incarceration and depression, while Roberts marvels at Homer's cinematic style and the strange tenderness between enemies. Together they unpack the shield of Achilles, the ransom of Hector's body, and how an ancient poem about war still cracks readers open today. It's a conversation about reading as communion--and how a 2,800-year-old story became, unexpectedly, a way of connecting to each other.

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Feed people Trump hates and go to prison. The Crime of Compassion: What the Arrest of Fergie Chambers Tells Us About Where We Are Now. Trump and The Odyssey: The Ancient Curse He Just Unleashed on America. Who Guards the Guards When ICE Investigates Itself? Are Republicans Running on Nothing But Hate?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump and The Odyssey: The Ancient Curse He Just Unleashed on America...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomIran War Could Bring $40 OilMBA Salaries Crash to Below 1980Democrats Plan to Pack the CourtsGen Z Goes CommunistFixing the Social Security PonziRead the article “Fixing the Social Security Ponzi" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletVisit our Sponsor: Abundant MinesMine Bitcoin, Keep the Profits, Reduce your Taxes. We handle Everything.Visit our Sponsor: The Bitcoin WayStep-by-step help with Bitcoin self-custody, upgraded cybersecurity, and Plan B residency.Profstonge WeeklyWeekly articles on economics and freedom and a monthly investment Watch ListDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

North Carolina's hemp industry has largely been unregulated, but that may soon change, and this multi-billion-dollar sector of our state's economy hangs in the balance. A federal law banning intoxicating hemp products is scheduled to go into effect in November and the General Assembly is considering its own prohibitions. A look at what this may mean for the industry and the 16,000 people working in it.

This week, Shaye Wanner interviews NDSU livestock development specialist Jon Biermacher about the economics of buying weaned/backgrounded heifers in spring, breeding them, and selling them about a year later as long-bred heifers or as pairs, using an Excel-based enterprise budget tool developed from a student producer's plan.   The model includes key costs (heifer purchase, pasture/feed/hay/mineral, health, breeding, transport, interest, marketing) and compares AI plus cleanup bulls versus natural service, finding about a $55/head advantage to not using AI (not counting added labor) and little observed revenue premium for AI'd breds. In their projections, pairs returned about $100/head more than bred heifers. Results show costs are dominated by heifer purchase and feed, with profit highly sensitive to purchase price; a ~$0.20/lb increase can erase roughly $200/head projected net return. This conversation is helpful for anyone looking to create projections on their operation with resources from the NDSU team.   Join Rising Ranchers Here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/risingranchers  Catch more conversations like this one and learn more at https://www.casualcattleconversations.com/     01:31 Meet John Biermacher  04:54 Defining the Enterprise  06:08 Building the Budget Tool  13:03 Markets and Assumptions  15:04 AI Versus Bulls  19:48 Where the Costs Sit  22:26 Breds Versus Pairs  25:35 Break Evens and Risk  31:47 Tools Beyond Spreadsheets   

Vertical merger review has long rested on the principle that competitive harm is most likely when a merged firm has both the ability and incentive to foreclose rivals, yet courts and enforcers often struggle to establish that harm empirically. But can potentially anticompetitive vertical integrations be screened in advance using observable market characteristics? Charles Hodgson, Assistant Professor of Economics at Yale University and Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER, and Shilong Sun, Senior Economist at Compass Lexecon, join Anora Wang and Panos Dimitrellos to discuss how evidence from the Chinese film industry sheds light on when vertical foreclosure is likely to emerge, why downstream concentration and upstream product substitutability matter, and how these findings may inform modern merger review across industries ranging from movie theaters to digital platforms. Listen to this episode to learn more about how a practical screening framework for vertical mergers could help identify when foreclosure concerns are most likely to arise and provide enforcers and practitioners with a more evidence-based approach to assessing competitive harm. With special guests: Charles Hodgson, Professor, Yale and Shilong Sun, Dr., Compass Lexecon Related Links: Charles Hodgson bio Shilong Sun bio  Heterogeneity in Vertical Foreclosure: Evidence from the Chinese Film Industry  Hosted by: Panos Dimitrellos, Secretariat Economists and Anora Wang, Arnold & Porter

In the opening lecture of Mises University, Joseph Salerno returns to 1871, when Carl Menger's Principles of Economics launched the Austrian school. Salerno shows how Menger's law of marginal utility solved the ancient "paradox of value"—why life-giving water is cheap and useless diamonds dear—and, in doing so, moved economics away from the classical focus on the businessman and cost, and toward the acting, wanting human being.Recorded at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, on July 20, 2025.Mises University is the world's leading instructional program in the Austrian School of economics, and is the essential training ground for economists who are looking beyond the mainstream.

Pauline Hanson has spent the past fortnight in Europe spruiking her anti-immigration policies which have long been familiar to Australian voters.  But beyond immigration, what does One Nation actually want for the economy?  Today, ABC business and economics reporter Gareth Hutchens looks at the policies that have received far less attention and what Australia's economy could look like under One Nation.   Featured:  Gareth Hutchens, ABC business and economics reporter 

How did Jordan get entangled in the US-Iran war? KAN's David Ze'ev spoke with Ksenia Svetlova, a former member of the Knesset and current CEO of ROPES - The Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security. (Photo: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi/Reuters)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andy Burnham is set to enter No. 10 later today to become the UK's fifth prime minister in 4 years. We are live at Downing Street for the latest. Brent crude surpasses $90 per barrel, up 2.9 per cent in session as the U.S. targets Iran for a ninth consecutive night. Three U.S. troops have been confirmed dead following Iranian retaliatory strikes in Jordan and Iraq. Ryanair posts a miss for the first quarter, down by more than a third on the year. Passenger revenue slumps and jet fuel spikes with prices trending lower in the current quarter. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, we speak with Elif Kubilay about a study she conducted with Sule Alan on how adolescents can be empowered to change the social climate in schools. We discuss student-teachers, peer influence, bullying, self-persuasion, and what happens when students are trusted with real responsibility. The paper is available here. Elif Kubilay is an Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Essex. Her research focuses on development economics, labour economics, education, and behavioural economics, with a particular interest in how school environments shape children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the Fire" Bernstein discuss J.D. Vance's appearance on Rogan, his performance, specific times he was dishonest about the negotiations with Iran and the Epstein files, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Prolon - https://prolonlife.com/potpBodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderQuince - Get free shipping on your Quince order and 365-day returns athttps://www.quince.com/POTPPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Plus, the FCC Commissioners took lavish gifts from the company they regulate and who gets to own Your local news? Pete Hegseth drops a new video mandating ‘Testosterone Replacement Therapy' for US Soldiers. And Big Lie Alert. Did American Missiles Kill 120 Children? Trump Says Maybe It's AI.`Plus Congressman Mark Pocan.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Georgina Godwin meets economist Victoria Bateman to discuss her latest work, Economica, which explores and rewrites our understanding of women’s role in the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Money is everywhere in our daily lives. It lurks in the swipe of a card at the grocery store, in looming student-loan debts, in the prices of things we want, and in our subconscious navigation of the modern world. In this revelatory book, economists Mason and Jayadev explain how and why money is so deeply misunderstood by the world it dominates—as well as the dangerous social implications of this misunderstanding. Against Money (University of Chicago Press, 2026) tackles the most dearly held “truths” of economics, arguing that the world of money has never been an impartial representation of the world of things. Instead, its existence in different forms—debt, capital, liquidity, and interest—increasingly shapes events in the real world rather than just reflecting them. Sometimes money enables new forms of cooperation; more often it facilitates domination. Human existence is not just facilitated by money but also governed by it. J.W. Mason is an Associate Professor of Economics at John Jay College, City University of New York and a Senior Fellow at the Groundworks Collective. He was formerly the Policy Director for the New York State Working Families Party. Arjun teaches Economics at the University. Arjun Jayadev is Professor of Economics at Azim Premji University in India. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Thom talks with American journalist, talk show host, publisher, and co-author of several non-fiction books, Karen Hunter, about D.E.I., what it mean to be "white", and how people unfortunately need to see the consequences of their voting. What Does It Mean to Be "White" in America Today?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

For the second week in a row, Steve talks with five-time United States Congressman, Professor of Law and Economics and former Supreme Court Attorney/Law Clerk Tom Campbell, this time about the Middle East and the future of American politics.

Mark Thornton looks at the growing strength of democratic socialism inside the Democratic Party and asks whether the United States may be entering another era of major party realignment. Drawing on Rothbard's analysis of long-term ideological change, Mark explains how younger voters, burdened by debt, unaffordable housing, healthcare, and education, are understandably angry—but are turning toward policies that helped create the crisis. Mark also examines how war, inflation, government intervention, and broken political promises are reshaping both major parties.On Side B, Thornton joins the Liberty and Finance podcast to discuss monetary disorder, central bank digital currencies, programmable money, AI-driven surveillance, the war on cash, and the need for education and resistance against the next monetary reset.Additional Resources"Keith Knight's Top Ten Problems with Democratic Socialism" (Human Action Podcast) with Bob Murphy: https://mises.org/MI_186_A"How Democratic Socialists of America Has Developed Into a Movement Party" by David Duhalde: https://mises.org/MI_186_B"The Myth of Democratic Socialism" by Murray Rothbard: https://mises.org/MI_186_C"How Democratic Socialism Created California's Housing Crisis" by Chris Calton: https://mises.org/MI_186_D"Democratic Socialism IS Totalitarianism" by Bill Anderson: https://mises.org/MI_186_E"How to Fix the Economics of Healthcare" by Bob Murphy: https://mises.org/MI_186_F2026 is the Year of Rothbard—Murray's 100th birthday—and we're celebrating by giving away free copies of The Origins of the Federal Reserve through July 31. Grab yours today at https://mises.org/issuesfree20% off listener offer on the insulated Minor Issues tumbler and three of Mark's books: https://mises.org/MinorIssuesTumbler. Use coupon code Thornton.Be sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues

As part of our coverage of the Battle for Israel's Soul, we're going to be sharing the full interviews we did while prepping the series. Most of these will be for subscribers only, but this first one with Yaniv Rosnai is available here for all. If you'd like to join us and subscribe today to access all of the full interviews, please visit tabletmag.com/subscribe and use coupon code judicial for a $100 discount off any subscription. In this installment, Leela is speaking with Yaniv Rosnai. Rosnai is a full professor and vice dean at the Harry Rozner Law School and co-director at the Rubenstein Center for Constitutional Challenges at Reichman University. He holds a PhD and LLM from the London School of Economics. He is also co-chair of the Israeli section of the International Society of Public Law.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Mark Schmidt unpack why U.S. healthcare feels so expensive and the potential impacts of rising hospital costs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Mark Schmidt: And I'm Mark Schmidt, Head of Municipal Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, a discussion into one of the biggest mysteries in one of the biggest sectors of the economy. We're talking about healthcare costs. It's Friday, July 17th at 2pm in London. Mark Schmidt: At 9am in New York. Andrew Sheets: So, we're talking today about healthcare, which represents roughly a fifth of the U.S. economy, the bulk of job creation over the last several years, and in my view, honestly, one of the biggest inflation paradoxes that we see in the market. On the one hand, the high cost of healthcare is taken as a given, and it's something that many Americans still struggle with financially. But if you look at the official inflation data in the U.S., healthcare costs have been lower than normal, and that's been true now for a number of years. So, what's going on? How do we tie this together? And Mark, you just wrote a report that tries to do exactly that. So, what did you hope to accomplish with this report? Mark Schmidt: You're absolutely right. It's hard to underline enough just how large healthcare is to the U.S. economy overall. Americans spend nearly $6 trillion on healthcare. That's more than the GDP of the entire country of Germany. And if we think about prices, Americans pay more. A knee replacement, for example, costs $25,000 in the United States. That same procedure costs just $6,000 in France. Common heart treatments that would cost $3,000 in Germany or $10,000 in Australia cost $34,000 in the U.S. It also matters for everyone's local community. Healthcare jobs have been growing twice as fast as the rate of job growth in the economy overall. And those are good jobs. They pay above average wages. For many Americans these days, the most secure path to the middle class is a career in healthcare. Now, this may seem a little bit arcane, but it probably hits close to your portfolio as well. Earlier in the year, when we took a look at how equity separately managed accounts invest, they typically have a core overweight to healthcare. And even though American prices may seem like an American issue, many of the largest and most profitable healthcare companies in the world are actually headquartered in Europe. So, whether you're sitting in New York or sitting in London, the price of American healthcare probably matters to you. But as you noted, Andrew, it does feel like a paradox because although Americans cite healthcare costs as one of their top concerns, and although healthcare spending is growing at 6 percent a year or more, the official inflation data says that healthcare prices are in check. And at one point earlier in the year, healthcare inflation, according to official data, even dipped below 3 percent. It just didn't make a lot of sense, and that's why we got together with our colleagues across equities, fixed income research, public policy, and economics to dig into what was actually going on. Andrew Sheets: So, Mark, let's dig right into that. I mean, it seems like a perfect encapsulation of the so-called Main Street versus Wall Street perception of the economy. So, what's going on? How does one kind of square those two numbers? Mark Schmidt: The easiest way to understand it is that you can't walk through a grocery store and figure out the price of a knee replacement. And that's true both for you and me. It's also true for the government. They have to survey hospitals and health insurance companies. The trouble is that the prices that health insurance companies pay hospitals, well, those are trade secrets. So, at any given point in time, even for the best government economists, it's not entirely clear what the price trends are. And that's why when you look at the official data, healthcare inflation typically has relatively lumpy jumps in the series. You could see several months of 0.1 or 0.2 percent official growth in healthcare inflation. Or as earlier this week, you could see certain categories jump to 0.4 or even 0.8. Andrew Sheets: Another element, Mark, that you talked about in the report is that people are also consuming more healthcare. So, talk a little bit about that. How that factors into this dynamic, and again, is that just going to be the new normal as the population ages and we tend to spend more on healthcare as we get older? Mark Schmidt: That's right. The good news is that we're living longer lives. The bad news is that means that we have more chronic healthcare conditions to deal with. The good news is that more procedures can be done in outpatient settings, and those, generally speaking, are cheaper. The bad news is that inpatient care, inpatient prices go up as the complexity of procedures that actually happen in a hospital setting increase significantly. When you balance it all out, it's a situation where, thankfully, the United States and most Americans have the means and the wealth to pay more for healthcare. The flip side of that is that they are paying more for healthcare, and that's why we think that the recent softness in healthcare inflation is actually too good to be true. Andrew Sheets: Something that jumped out at me from this report, Mark, was just how important hospitals are in this equation. And the experience of the patient and the experience of the hospital can be different economically. And that difference can also matter for how this shows up in official inflation and government statistics.So, you know, it would be helpful maybe just to walk the listener through. If I go into the hospital and I need knee surgery. You know, how does that look like from my perspective in terms of paying for it, assuming I have health insurance through my employer? How could that look like to the hospital? And how could that look like coming out the other end into the official government statistics? Mark Schmidt: Well, of course, Andrew, the first thing that you do when you break your leg is you call six hospitals and shop around for the cheapest price, right? Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Of course. Mark Schmidt: So that's actually the problem because when you get care, you're not in a place to ask about the price. And frankly, even if you asked your doctor or nurse what the price is, they probably wouldn't know. Not only is it not their job to know the price, but all of those negotiations happen after the fact – with the prices that the insurance companies negotiate with the hospitals. After COVID, hospitals had a lot more costs to spread out among the people who were coming in the door, and so they raised prices across the board, not just for procedures that were related to respiratory illness. Naturally, insurance companies noticed that, and they started to push back. So long after you get a cast for your broken leg – and by the way, I wish you a speedy recovery – insurance companies end up going back and forth negotiating with your doctors for exactly how much they should pay you. And although these prices were loosely set well before you walked in the door, the exact way it gets billed and coded? Well, let's just say there's a lot of back and forth. For a well-run hospital, the cost of talking to and ultimately getting reimbursement from your insurance company, that alone could be 2 to 4 percent of revenue. And in especially complex cases, that whole negotiation can eat up 5 to 7 percent of the total bill. You're also right to flag that hospitals really are still the central point of the U.S. healthcare system. Americans spend $2 trillion in a hospital setting. And hospitals overwhelmingly coordinate care for both primary, specialty, and pharmacy services. Andrew Sheets: Mark, another issue I wanted to ask you about was the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, Medicaid, and how those programs fit into the story? Mark Schmidt: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act included a variety of measures to slow the overall growth rate of healthcare. Now, for all the reasons we just discussed, that's probably warranted. The Affordable Care Act is another wrinkle. Enhanced subsidies, which were already set to expire – did in fact expire at the end of last year. And as a result, more Americans are now uninsured. It remains to be seen how that impacts overall costs. In the United States, when you have a health emergency, a hospital is legally obligated to treat you because of a 1990s law called EMTALA. Even if you can't pay, the system eventually does. Historically, uncompensated care costs have been passed on to individuals and companies with insurance. For now, however, it remains to be seen whether these changes in law and in the overall number of people with insurance will cause healthcare prices to rise or fall. Andrew Sheets: And Mark, just for the broad-based implications of this, right? It's fair to say that in any health insurance system, there are some people who consume a lot more healthcare. They're unhealthy or they're unlucky. And there are some who consume a lot less. And, you know, this is something where that overall coverage question matters. Because if you have things that reduce the number of otherwise healthy people who are in those healthcare pools, it can raise the cost for everybody else. Those people who were in some ways subsidizing the higher consumers of healthcare are no longer there. Is that a fair way to frame it, do you think? And are there potential changes given some of these legislative actions that could lead to changes of what the pool looks like – and what overall costs could look like? Mark Schmidt: That's a great point. And healthcare is probably the only part of our economy where you would say, "Thank goodness I did not get my money's worth." As we think about it… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Very true. Very true. Mark Schmidt: As we think about it, most young and healthy people are going to be paying more for their health insurance than they receive in healthcare. Again, that's a good thing. Because American healthcare prices are so much higher than anywhere else in the world, paying in more than you get back? Well, that hits the wallet harder in America than it does in other countries. And that's why for many people – choice – choosing how much health insurance to have and how much to pay for it, really is central to keeping the American economy dynamic. The flip side, however, is that as Americans get older, more people have Medicare. Now, Medicare is pretty good if you have it. But the catch is that Medicare prices, according to most independent estimates, do not fully reimburse for the cost of care. So, as more seniors take up more beds in a hospital, that means that commercial prices, the prices for people who have private insurance through their employer, are likely to rise even faster. Andrew Sheets: So, Mark, I think a good place to close it out and kind of bring this all together is a really important conclusion of this report – is that hospitals have been absorbing a number of these rising costs of healthcare through lower margins for the hospital. And that has resulted in lower ultimate inflation because the inflation is measured out the other side, out ultimately what the hospital earns. And if you could just maybe talk a little bit more about that. To what extent have those margins been compressed? And what that might mean for things going forward? Mark Schmidt: That's right. We dug into the finances for hundreds of not-for-profit hospitals in the United States. They are facing higher costs and shrinking margins. Historically, hospitals have partially passed on expense increases of this magnitude. Now, in their conversations with insurance companies, the biggest benchmark setting of prices happens once every two to three years. So, we're not going to see hospital prices show up in the inflation data overnight. But when we look at hospitals across the country, their budget information and their guidance is consistent with firming prices. Andrew Sheets: Great. Thank you so much, Mark. I've really enjoyed the conversation. Mark Schmidt: Thanks for having me, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a friend or colleague today. And rate and review us on wherever you listen. It helps more people find the show.

The question is no longer whether Trump will contest defeat this fall. It's whether America's institutions—and its citizens—are prepared to stop him when he does…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump attacks elections in primetimeNetworks refuse to air himHis own documents expose Putin's helpA Treasury official is firedICE spills more bloodSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump Declassified The Proof That Putin Was Helping Him All Along. Did Mitch McConnell die and there is a massive cover-up? Who Did ICE Hand A Gun And A Badge To - Who then Killed Joan Sebastian Guerrero? Phil Ittner - “Live” from Ukraine update. Is Trump's Inner Circle Cashing In on the Iran War? Is Cuba Next on the War Menu? And Why Did ABC, NBC, And CNN Refuse To Air Trump's Speech? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Live July 17, 2026 | Yaron Brook Show(Season 12, Episode 126)Election Speech; ICE; Insider Trading; AI; Iran; Ukraine; Britain; Achievement | Yaron Brook ShowTrump's Contradictions, AI's Arms Race & Iran's Future: The World's Fault Lines Are CollidingIs America making rational decisions—or stumbling from one political contradiction to the next?In this wide-ranging live episode, Yaron Brook dissects President Trump's latest election speech, examines the growing tensions between political rhetoric and economic reality, and explores why America's biggest challenges—from immigration enforcement to AI competition with China to the conflict with Iran—require something today's politicians seem unwilling to embrace: rational thinking.Yaron also analyzes insider trading concerns surrounding Truth Social, the escalating AI race between the U.S. and China, the enormous infrastructure challenge behind artificial intelligence, developments in Ukraine and Britain, breakthroughs in biotechnology and space exploration, and why achievement—not politics—is ultimately what moves civilization forward.The show concludes with an engaging audience Q&A covering Iran, fascism, Ayn Rand's cultural influence, retirement, the 2028 election, and America's strategy toward the Islamic Republic.Watch Now: https://youtube.com/live/fwvuZFhPYDwTopics Covered00:00 Introduction & upcoming schedule00:36 What today's show covers01:57 Trump's election speech & contradictions on China07:34 Irrationality inside the Trump administration11:10 Non-citizen voting claims & voter fraud narratives14:57 DHS & ICE: funding, training and enforcement challenges21:20 Truth Social, insider trading & privileged market access29:14 The AI race: America vs. China38:54 Are today's AI companies worth the hype?41:32 Why data centers may become AI's biggest bottleneck46:12 Iran, the Persian Gulf & American strategy50:53 Shipping, trade & the economic consequences of war with Iran57:52 Political obstacles to U.S. military action1:01:14 Ukraine's political turmoil1:07:32 Britain's new Prime Minister: Andy Burnham1:11:06 Bioprinting organs in space1:14:57 Nuclear reactor pilot progress1:16:14 SpaceX Falcon 9 milestone1:19:07 Upcoming Ayn Rand Institute conferenceLive Audience Questions1:24:38 What would you say to Americans who support Iran?1:26:54 Has every president since Calvin Coolidge shown fascist tendencies?1:27:47 Is Ayn Rand making a meaningful impact on today's culture?1:29:21 Would retirement ever satisfy you?1:31:40 Which Democrats would you support before Marco Rubio in 2028?1:33:28 If Trump opens the Strait, will he pursue regime change in Iran?If you enjoy thoughtful analysis of politics, economics, technology, foreign policy, philosophy, and capitalism, subscribe and join us live every week.#Trump #ArtificialIntelligence #Iran #China #IndustrialRevolution #Iran #Immigration #Technology#Ukraine #Politics #AynRand #Economics #Objectivism #Capitalism Subscribe for daily analysis on economics, politics, philosophy, technology, investing, and current events.The Yaron Brook Show is Sponsored by[The Ayn Rand Institute](https://www.aynrand.org/starthere)[Energy Talking Points, featuring AlexAI, by Alex Epstein](https://alexepstein.substack.com/)[Express VPN](https://www.expressvpn.com/yaron)[Hendershott Wealth Management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4lfC...) &(https://hendershottwealth.com/ybs/)[Michael Williams & The Defenders of Capitalism Project](https://www.DefendersOfCapitalism.com)[Support the Show]( / yaronbrookshow )[Sponsor the Show](askyaron@yaronbrookshow.com/)[One-time donation](https://bit.ly/2RZOyJJ)Join the [Yaron Brook Show YouTube channel]( / @yaronbrook )Like what you hear? Like, share, and subscribe to stay updated on new videos and help promote the [Yaron Brook Show](https://bit.ly/3ztPxTx)Continue the discussion by following Yaron on [Twitter](https://bit.ly/3iMGl6z) and [Facebook](https://bit.ly/3vvWDDC )Want to learn more about Ayn Rand and Objectivism? Visit the [Ayn Rand Institute](https://bit.ly/35qoEC3)Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/yaron-brook-show--3276901/support.Yaron is the executive chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute and a world class speaker. He is the coauthor of the national best-seller Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government, Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Inequality and In Pursuit of Wealth: The Moral Case for Finance. He speaks around the world on a variety of topics including the morality of capitalism, Ayn Rand and her philosophy, finance and economics, and the value of inequality.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave discusses the populist moment we've been living in for the past 15 years, left vs. right wing populism, Gavin Newsom and Ro Khanna struggling to answer questions about Israel, and more.Support Our Sponsors:USA compounded, The Wellness Company's Ivermectin + Mebendazole Parasite Cleanse! Click http://www.twc.health/problem and use code PROBLEM for up to $60 Off + Free Shipping on every order. USA Residents only.Troll Co - https://www.trollco.com/problem and use code DAVE25 for 25% off your first order!Prolon - https://prolonlife.com/potpPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Credit markets are stepping in to fund the surging demand for AI. Our experts Lindsay Tyler and Anish Shah explore the opportunities and risks behind this record financing wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lindsay Tyler: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Anish Shah: And I'm Anish Shah, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley. Lindsay Tyler: Today, how issuers and investors are approaching the rapidly evolving world of AI financing. It's Thursday, July 16th at 10am in New York. As AI demand accelerates, credit markets are being asked to finance infrastructure on a scale that used to be associated with utilities, telecom, or energy. That raises a central question for issuers and investors: How much debt can the AI ecosystem absorb? And at what price? Anish, can you walk our listeners through the key products in your purview? Anish Shah: Certainly, in my nearly twenty years at Morgan Stanley, this is probably the most incredible time period I've ever seen in the credit markets. I've had the privilege of working across a number of different roles in capital markets and lending. And a couple of years ago, we integrated the debt underwriting business across both investment-grade and leverage finance franchises in recognition of how interconnected the whole credit ecosystem has become. In addition to our core activities helping clients raise capital for their strategic priorities, two of the big focus areas that we've had have been finding ways to harness the power of the private credit universe and also delivering best-in-class capabilities in funding this incredible growth in AI spend. Lindsay Tyler: AI financing has certainly been a theme we've also been focused on in research. Our equity research colleagues project that a handful of key players could add more than 30 gigawatts of capacity over a two-year timeframe, driving around [$]2 trillion of aggregate cash CapEx in that period. And to put that into context, a single gigawatt of data center capacity can require roughly $12 billion for the shell, and then often more than double that for chips and racks. So, from your vantage point, what inning are we in? And what gives you confidence that credit markets can continue funding this opportunity at scale? Anish Shah: I mean, Lindsay, the numbers certainly are staggering, as you note. And if you just observe the CapEx estimates for the hyperscalers and broadly for AI infrastructure, we're certainly in the early innings. Lindsay Tyler: Mm-hmm. Anish Shah: The largest tech companies have historically, as you know, raised very little debt. In fact, many of these companies have not even needed a credit facility. As CapEx projections were materially increased in the second half of last year, we saw the beginning of scaled capital raises. Hyperscaler issuance has quickly gone from less than one percent of the investment-grade market to more than 10 percent of the market. You know, as I look ahead, based on what we're seeing on the ground, we think that AI-related funding, whether it's for data center development or financing compute capacity, could top 15 percent of the total issuance across all credit products. This has been an unprecedented test for the capital markets, both in terms of the depth of capacity and the breadth of product. The teams have been on the forefront of deep investor dialogue and product innovation. This spans corporate investment grade, first of their kind financings in high-yield and leveraged loan markets, and new takes on asset-backed financing. And each of these areas has seen material issuance both in public and private markets. Lindsay Tyler: Great backdrop. Let's dig first into investment-grade corporate debt, an area you know well from your time previously leading the investment-grade team. Can you help frame the scale and the significance of this financing bucket and how AI-related debt is scaling within it? Anish Shah: Well, you know, as you know, the investment-grade bond market, specifically in dollars, is the deepest, most liquid pool of capital in the world. Volumes have grown materially over the last few years and are likely to eclipse $2 trillion in issuance this year. Hyperscalers are among the very best credits in the world, and they have the ability to come in and out of markets with relatively quick twitch, little to no pre-marketing, and in fairly large size. You know, $20 billion-plus deals used to be rare in the investment-grade market, now happen multiple times a quarter. This is why we've seen the predominance of AI-driven capital raising take place in the investment-grade market. For the most part, investors have digested that supply very well. While we've seen some modest widening credit spreads for hyperscalers and some of the other tech issuers, I'd say it's de minimis relative to their expected ROI. Lindsay, I've talked a lot about supply dynamics and issuance. What other factors are you and investors considering when assessing fair value for investment-grade rated technology bonds? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. It's prudent to really weigh a mix of technicals, fundamentals, and relative value. You know, as you discussed on the technical side, and related to my discussions with debt and equity investors, I've been focused on scale of buildouts, market capacity, digestibility across currencies, positioning along the curve, implications of equity issuance, and whether AI financing could crowd out other areas of TMT credit. But moving more to the fundamental side of things, you mentioned ROI, and for the players that are scaling compute capacity, there are a handful of key monetization and return questions that keep coming up. How quickly can these companies bring new capacity online? Once it's live, how does it translate into durable revenue and cash flow? Is that capacity supporting internal products, proprietary models, broader cloud offerings, or compute leased to third parties? And then how fungible is the capacity across those use cases if demand or returns shift? Further on the fundamental side, we've done some differentiated work around growing long-term commitments. We've seen that high-quality hyperscalers and a few of the semis companies are anchoring the AI ecosystem through leases, guarantees, other obligations. These commitments really extend beyond vanilla bond issuance. So, I encourage investors to look beyond the funded debt and really understand the accounting and the ratings implications here of some of those commitments. And this ties nicely into the next topic that I wanted to raise, which is project finance debt. I've noticed that, you know, a lot of the commitments that we're seeing from IG players support another layer of financing. Lease commitments can underpin project finance debt, an area of sizable issuance and innovation. The public high-yield market has emerged as a new funding source in this way for data center construction, with more than 30 billion priced across 15 deals, since fall 2025. Can you walk us through, Anish, the innovation behind these structures, and how are these high yield deals different than other ways to, kind of, raise project finance debt? Anish Shah: Yeah, it's incredibly interesting. I mean, the bulk of the issuance, as I noted has come in the investment grade market, but I would say the bulk of the innovation has come in the sub-investment grade market. You know, historically, for very capital-intensive sectors like energy and power or real estate, the project loan market was the most efficient source of initial funding. The developer would tap banks to underwrite a highly structured construction loan. Once the project is up and running, you could then refinance that loan with the predictable cash flows into a more institutional financing, like the investment grade bond market or the term loan B or securitization markets.That product may still be very viable in many sectors, but we felt early on that bank-provided construction loans would not meet the capacity needs of the AI investment cycle. The market really needed an institutional credit product that bypassed the need for construction loans. The key innovation came in the form of first-of-its-kind high-yield bonds that funded the development of a new data center complex. Given the relatively short construction period and the "offtake" supported by some of the highest quality credits in the world, we felt like this financing structure would be incredibly well-received in the high-yield market. The win here is that the developer accesses fixed rate long-term capital and maintains flexibility to call the bonds and refinance at a lower cost. Judging by how these financings have gone, there's a strong level of investor enthusiasm. I think that they've only scratched the surface, and I would expect that we see much more of this. And potentially even expand it to other products in the leverage finance markets given the tremendous level of investor demand. Lindsay Tyler: Yeah. It's certainly been exciting to follow many of those deals. Beyond the public space, we're also seeing a wave of innovation in private credit and asset-backed finance. Anish, how do companies decide whether capital is best raised in the public or the private markets? Anish Shah: Well, I'm glad you raised the whole avenue of private markets because it may be the most significant change in the credit markets over the last few years, broadening the scope of private credit from directly lending into leverage buyouts to now financing large investment-grade projects. There are great examples in the world of GPU and TPU financing, where we structure loans secured by the asset and the cash flows, or in data center development.Lindsay, from your perspective, what are investors focused on when these private structures intersect with public credits? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Many of these asset-backed private financings have prompted investors to look more closely at any of the public companies involved, whether as issuers, tenants, customers, or support providers. This ties back to the point I raised earlier. Where does the risk reside, and who ultimately is on the hook? These financings have also sparked broader discussions around circularity, vendor financing, and technology obsolescence risk, even when amortizing structures are in place. I do think those are fair concerns to weigh, and they really speak to how quickly the AI financing trend is evolving and how much credit work there is to do. So, Anish, with that balance in mind, relatively strong demand, rapid innovation, but also some real credit questions, let's end with a quick lightning round. Anish Shah: Lindsay, let's do it. Lindsay Tyler: First, what is the biggest risk that could test investor appetite for AI-related debt? Anish Shah: I would say investors are acutely focused on construction delays. Don't underestimate the level of diligence being done by the breadth of capacity you're seeing in the markets. Investors are doing their homework, and we're spending a lot of time trying to mitigate any of their concerns with structural protections. Lindsay Tyler: Got it. Second, beyond data center shells and chips, what is the next potential AI financing opportunity? Anish Shah: It most certainly is energy and power. We're going to see a ton of capital being raised in utilities. It's going to be a little different than what the hyperscalers are doing, just given the nature of their balance sheets. You're going to see more junior capital. We've seen a wave of junior subordinated debt issuance out of the utilities. We're also seeing a lot of activity from our project finance and tax equity team, just given all things energy infrastructure. Lindsay Tyler: Great. And third, if we're sitting here a year from now, what do you think could be the biggest AI financing story we're talking about? Anish Shah: Well, we certainly underestimated the level of financing activity that we saw in the past year. I think when we look back a year from now, we will probably see that the AI labs were much more ready to finance on their own on a standalone basis. That's going to alleviate some of the pressures in the market, but I think it's going to create a whole new set of considerations and structural innovation. Lindsay Tyler: Well, it's certainly been remarkable to watch this financing theme take shape in real time, and the next chapter sounds like it could be even more interesting to follow. Anish, thanks for joining us and sharing your insights. Anish Shah: Great to join, Lindsay. Thanks. Lindsay Tyler: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Anish Shah is a member of Morgan Stanley's Global Capital Markets Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.