Podcasts about Economics

Good News Alert! Kristi Noem Got Fired. Cricket the Dog Was Vindicated. The Department of Justice released an interview with a woman saying Trump sexually assaulted her as a minor. DOJ claims originally thought that it was duplicate deletion. Who believes that? Plus Monkey Time and The Big Chicken!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Forbes Media Chief Steve Forbes joins the show to talk Economics with Larry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Scientific Sense ® by Gill Eapen: Prof. John Friedman is Professor of Economics and International and Public Affairs at Brown University and Dean of the School of International and Public Affairs. Dean Friedman is a founding co-director of Opportunity Insights. His work is rooted in big-data analysis, with a focus on topics like inequality, poverty, education, and tax policy. Please subscribe to this channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/ScientificSense?sub_confirmation=1

Economists don't usually talk about “culture.” But Joel Mokyr argues that it's the engine of innovation — and the Nobel Prize committee agreed. Stephen Dubner sits down for a thousand-year conversation (including advice!) with the new Nobel laureate.   SOURCES: Joel Mokyr, economic historian at Northwestern University.   RESOURCES: Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000–2000, by Avner Greif, Joel Mokyr, and, Guido Tabellini (2025). "The Outsize Role of Immigrants in US Innovation," by Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade, and Beatriz Pousada (NBER, 2023). A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy, by Joel Mokyr (2016). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012). "The Economics of Being Jewish," by Joel Mokyr (Critical Review, 2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to another riveting episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, where navigating the complexities of our ever-changing world is front and center. In this episode, Tom Bilyeu and co-host DREW dive headfirst into the turbulence of our current global landscape—covering everything from intensifying conflicts in Iran and shifting U.S. military strategies, to the surprising moves of countries like Poland pursuing nuclear weapons, and the intricate economic warfare playing out beneath the headlines. Together, they unravel the “narrative warfare” shaping public perception and challenge the official stories behind major decisions. You'll hear candid analysis of the recent U.S. and Israeli military operations, the economic underpinnings driving geopolitical clashes, the hidden power of sovereign wealth funds, and how insurance, oil, and investment dollars are quietly influencing the course of world events. Beyond the headlines, Tom Bilyeu lays out his perspective on why economics—not just ideology or politics—is at the core of these dramatic moves, and why the survival and prosperity of entire regions might depend on who controls capital flows in the age of AI. It's an unflinching look at the real motivations behind international power plays and the very human narratives built along the way. Whether you're here for insights on global economics, political chess, or just want to better understand how world leaders spin the truth, this episode promises a thought-provoking, transparent conversation you won't want to miss. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactSumm: code TOMVIP20 for 20% off your first year at https://summ.com?via=tombilyeu&coupon=TOMVIP20Blocktrust IRA: get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.comQuo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impactQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Duck.Ai: Protect your privacy at https://duck.ai/impact Monetary Metals: Future-proof your wealth at https://monetarymetals.com/impact Plaud: Get 10% off with code TOM10 at https://plaud.ai/tom Iran war, Khamenei succession, US military strategy, nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, South Korea stock market, oil prices, narrative warfare, Trump Genius Act, crypto industry, US-Ecuador military operation, insurance companies, Strait of Hormuz, Middle East conflict, air superiority, B-2 bombers, B-52 bombers, economic drivers of war, City of London, UK-US relations, AI investments, sovereign wealth funds, US-Navy escorts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Israel-Iran tensions, Netanyahu, political narratives, private equity, Amazon Web Services, Epstein files. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss the confusing details of the war with Iran so far, Ben Shpiro's public comments in which he claimed Dave "hates America", and more.Support Our Sponsors:CrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpFÜM - http://tryfum.com/problem & Use code PROBLEMMASA Chips - https://www.masachips.com/DAVE YoKratom - https://yokratom.com/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Live from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our panel break down where AI is already delivering real returns—and where rapid advances are raising new risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today we've got a special episode on AI adoption. And this is a first in a two-part conversation live from our Technology, Media and Telecom conference.It's Thursday, March 5th at 11am in San Francisco.We're really excited to be here with all of you taping live. And we've got on stage with me. Stephen Byrd, he's our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research; Josh Baer, Software Analyst; and Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst.So, Stephen, I want to start with you, pretty broad, pretty high level. We recently published our fifth AI Mapping Survey that identifies how different companies are exposed to the broad AI theme. Can you just share with us some insights from that piece and how stocks are performing with this AI exposure?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we've been doing this survey now, thanks to you, Michelle, and your excellent work, for quite a while. And every six months it is pretty telling to see the progression.I would say a few things that got my attention from our most recent mapping was the number of companies that are quantifying the adoption benefits continues to go up quite a bit. And to me that feels like that's going to be table stakes very soon as in every industry you see two or three companies that are really laying out quite specifically what they expect to be able to do with AI and lay out the math. I think that really is going to pull all the other companies to follow suit. So, we're seeing that in a big way.We do see adopters, with real tangible benefits performing well. But a new thing that we're seeing now, of course, in the market is concerns that in some cases adoption can lead to dramatic deflation, disruption, et cetera. That's coming up as well. So, we're seeing greater concerns around disruption as well.But broadly, I'd say a proliferation of adoption, that that universe of companies continues to grow, increases in quantification of the benefits. So, that is good. What's really surprised me though, is the narrative among investors has so quickly moved from those benefits which we've talked about into flipping that to toggle all negative, which I know some of our analysts have to deal with every day. The mapping work suggests significant benefits. But the market is fast forwarding to very powerful AI that is very disruptive in deflation. And that's been a surprise to me.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, I want to bring software into this. Your team has been arguing that AI is actually good for software. And it's really something that you need that application layer to then enable other companies to adopt AI. Can you tell us a little bit about how much GenAI could add to the broader enterprise software market? And how are you thinking about monetization these days?Josh Baer: Of course. I think the best starting place is a reminder that AI is software, and so we see software as a TAM expander. And in many ways, even though this is extremely exciting innovation, it's following past innovation trends where first you see value accrue and market cap accrue to semiconductors, and then hardware and devices, and then eventually software and services. And we do think that that absolutely will occur just given [$]3 trillion in infrastructure investment into data centers and GPUs.There's got to be an application layer that brings all of these productivity and efficiency gains to enterprises and advanced capabilities to consumers as well. And so we see AI more as an evolution for software than a revolution. An evolution of capabilities and expansion of capabilities. LLMs and diffusion engines absolutely unlocked all of these new features of what software can do. But incumbents will play a key role in this unlock.And our CIO surveys really support that. Quarterly we ask chief information officers about their spending intentions, and these application vendors who we cover in the public markets are increasingly selected as vendors that companies will go to, to help deploy and apply AI and LLM technologies.So, to answer your question, we estimate GenAI could unlock [$]400 billion in incremental TAM for software; for enterprise software by 2028. And this is based on looking at the type of work able to be automated, the labor costs associated with that work, the scope of automation, and then thinking about how much of that value is captured typically by software vendors.Michelle Weaver: And you have a bit of a different lens on AI adoption. So, what are some of the ways you're hearing software customers using these AI tools and anything interesting that popped up at the conference?Josh Baer: To echo what Stephen laid out, I mean, all of our software companies are using AI internally, both to drive efficiencies, but also to move faster. So thinking about product. Innovation, you know, the incumbents are able to use all of the same coding tools and, you know, …Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Josh Bear: … products geared to developers to move faster and more efficiently on R&D. So, they're doing more. From a sales and marketing perspective, a G&A perspective, every area of OpEx, our software companies are in a great position to deploy the AI tools internally.I think more important[ly], speaking to this TAM and expanded opportunity, is our companies have skews that they're monetizing. It might be a separate suite that incorporates advanced AI functionality. It might be a standalone offering, or it might be embedded into the core platform because the essence of software is AI and it, you know, leading to better retention rates and acceleration from here.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And Stephen, going back to you on the state of play for AI, we had the AI labs here and we heard a lot about the developments and what's to come. So, what's your view on the trajectory for LLM advancements and what are some of the key signposts or catalysts you're watching here?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is for me, maybe the most important takeaway of the conference – is this continued non-linear improvement of LLMs, which we've been writing about for quite some time. And just to give you an example, we think many of the labs have achieved a step change up in terms of the compute that they have, in some cases 10 x the amount of compute to train their LLMs. And that [if] the scaling laws hold – and we see every sign that they will – a 10x increase in compute used to train the models results in about a doubling of the model capabilities.Now just let that sink in for a moment. Let's just think about that. A doubling from here in a relatively short period of time is difficult to predict. It's obviously very significant and I think several of the LLM execs at our event sounded to me extremely bullish on what that will be. A lot of that I think will be evident in greater agentic capabilities.But also, I'd say greater creativity. It was about three weeks ago, three of the best physics minds in the world worked with an LLM to achieve a true breakthrough in physics – solving a problem that had never been solved before. A couple of days ago, a math team did the same thing. And so, what we're seeing is sort of these breakthrough capabilities in creativity. This morning I thought Sam speaking to, you know, incredible increases in what these models can do – which also brings risk. You know, I think it was interesting he spoke to, you know, the risk of misalignment, the risk of what these models are doing.But for me, that's the single biggest thing that I'm thinking about, and that's going to be evident in the next several months.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Stephen Byrd: So, you know, on the positive side, it leads to greater benefits from AI adoption. And to Josh's point that, you know – more and more the economy can be addressed by AI, I do get concerned about the risk that that kind of step change will create greater concerns about disruption and deflation.That causes me to think a lot about that dynamic. Interestingly, we think the Chinese labs will not be able to keep pace just for one reason, which is compute. We think the Chinese labs have everything else they need. They have the talent, the infrastructure. They certainly have the energy, power. But they don't have the chips.If what we laid out with the American models turns out to be true, I could see a chain reaction where the Chinese government pushes the Trump administration for full transfer of the best technology to China. And China could use their rare earth trade position to ensure that. So, that's sort of the chain reaction I've been thinking about.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. So, let's think about then bottlenecks in the U.S. Power is still one of the main bottlenecks. We had several of the solutions providers here at the conference. So, what are you thinking in terms of the size of the power bottleneck in the U.S. and how are we going to fix that?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, absolutely. I am bullish on the companies that can de-bottleneck power, not just in the U.S., a few other places. Let's go through the math in terms of the problem we face and then the solution.So, we have this very cool – it is cool if you're a nerd – power model that starts in the chip level up, from our semiconductor teams. And from that, we build a global power demand model for data centers. We then apply that to the U.S.Through 2028 we need about 74 gigawatts of data centers, both AI and non-AI to be built in the United States. I don't think we'll be able to achieve that for lots of reasons. But starting from that 74, we have sort of 10 gigs that have been recently built or are under construction. We have 15 gigs of incremental grid access, but after those two, we have to go to unconventional solutions, meaning typically off-grid solutions, over 40 gigawatts of unconventional solutions.So that will be repurposing Bitcoin sites, which could be sort of 10 to 15 gigawatts. That'll be big. Renewable energy, fuel cells will be part of the solution. Gas turbines will be a big part of the solution. Co-locating at a few nuclear plants. I'm less bullish than I used to be on that. But when we net all that out, we think the U.S. is likely to be 10 to 20 percent short of the data center capacity that will need to be in.It's not just a power grid access issue, though, that's a big one. Labor is now showing up as a huge issue. Many of the companies I speak to trying to develop data centers struggle with availability of labor. Electricians being one very tangible example. In the U.S. we need hundreds of thousands of additional electricians.So, for any of your children, like mine, thinking about careers, you know, you'd be surprised [at] the amount of money that people are making in the infrastructure business that does feel like it's a labor shift that's going to have to happen, but it's going to take years. So, in that context, we had a number of the Bitcoin companies at our event here. And the economics of turning a Bitcoin site into hosting a data center are extremely attractive. I mean, extremely attractive.To give you a sense of that. Before this opportunity presented itself to these Bitcoin players, those stocks tended to trade at an enterprise value per watt of about $1 to $2 a watt. Then we started to see these deals in which the Bitcoin players build a data center and lease them to hyperscalers. Those deals – depends a lot on the deal but – have created between $10 and $18 a watt of value. Let me repeat that. 10 to 18 – relative to where these stocks were at 1 to 2.Now many of these stocks have rerated, but not all of them. And there's still quite a bit of upside. And what we've noticed is the economics that the hyperscalers are paying are trending up and up and up. Because of this power shortage that we're dealing with. So, a lot of exciting opportunities are still in the power space.Michelle Weaver: Great. Well, I think that's a good place to wrap this first part of our conversation around AI adoption and the state of play. We'll be back again tomorrow with Part Two, looking at financing and risks.To our panelists, thank you for talking with me. And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In the second of our two-part panel discussion from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our analysts break down the complexity of financing AI's infrastructure and the technological disruption happening across industries.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome back to Thoughts on the Market, and welcome to part two of our conversation live from the Technology, Media and Telecom conference. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Today we're continuing our conversation with Stephen Byrd, Josh Baer and Lindsay Tyler. This time looking at financing AI and some of the risks to the story. It's Friday, March 6th at 11am in San Francisco. So yesterday we spoke about AI adoption. And while there's a lot of excitement on this theme, there've also been some concerns bubbling up. Lindsay, I want to start with you around financing. That's another critical component of the AI build out. What's your latest on the magnitude of the data center financing gap, and what role [are] credit markets playing here? Lindsay Tyler: Yeah, in partnership with Thematic Research, Stephen and team, and colleagues across fixed income research last summer, we did put out a note, thinking about the data center financing gap, right? So, Stephen and team modeled a $3 trillion global data center CapEx need over a four-year timeframe. So, in partnership with fixed income across asset classes, we thought: okay, how will that really be funded? And we came to the conclusion that the hyperscalers, the high quality hyperscalers, generate a good amount of cash flow, right? So, there's cash from ops that can fund approximately half of that. But then we think that fixed income markets are critical to fund the rest of the funding gap. And really private credit is the leader in that and then aided by corporate credit and also securitized credit. What we've seen since is that yes, private credit has served a role. There is this difference between private credit 1.0, which is more of that middle market direct lending. And then private credit 2.0, which is more ABF – Asset Based Finance or Asset Backed Finance. And what we see there is an interest in leases of hyperscaler tenants, right? We've also seen in the market over the past nine months or so, investment grade bond issuance by hyperscalers. Obviously, a use of cash flow by hyperscalers. We've seen the construction loans with banks and also private credit per reports. We've also seen high yield bond issuance, which is kind of a new trend for construction financing. We've seen ABS and CMBS as well. And then something new that's emerging in focus for investors is more of a chip-backed or compute contract backed financings, like more creative solutions. We're really in early innings of the spend right now. And so, there is this shift. As we start to work through the construction early phases, the next focus is: okay, but what about the chips? And so, I think a big focus is that, you know, chips are more than 50 percent of the spend for if you're looking at a gigawatt site. And it depends what type of chips and kind of what generation. But that's the next leg of this too. So, it's kind of a focus, you know, for 2026. Michelle Weaver: And how do you view balance sheet leverage and financing when you think about hyperscaler debt raising magnitude and timelines? Lindsay Tyler: So just to bring it down to more of a basic level, if you need compute, you really might need two things, right? A powered shell and then the chips. And so, if you're looking for that compute, you could kind of go in three basic ways. You could look to build the shell and kind of build and buy the whole thing. You could lease the shell, from, you know, a developer, maybe a Bitcoin miner too – that is converted to HBC. And then you kind of buy the chips and you put them in yourselves. Or you could lease all the compute; quote unquote lease, it's more of a contract. In terms of the funding, if you're thinking about the cash flows of some of the big companies – think of that as primarily being put towards chip spend. If you're thinking about the construction that's kind of split between cash CapEx but also leases. And so, what we've seen is that there is more than [$]600 billion of un-commenced lease obligations that will commence over the next two to five years, across the big four or five players. And then my equity counterparts estimate around [$]700 billion of cash CapEx that needs this year for some of those players as well. So, these are big numbers. But that's kind of how, at a basic level, they're approaching some of the financing. It's a split approach. Michelle Weaver: And what have you learned around financing the past few days at the conference? Anything incremental to share there? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Yeah. I think I found confirmation of some key themes here at the conference. The first being that numerous funding buckets are available. That was a big focus of our note last year is that you can kind of look at asset level financing. You can look at public bonds, you can look at some equity. There are these different funding buckets available.The second is that tenant quality matters for construction financing. I think I've seen this more in the markets than maybe at this conference over the past two to three weeks. But that has been a focus of pricing for the deals, but also market depth for the deals. A third confirmation of a key theme was around the neo clouds and also the GPU as a service business models. Thinking about those creative financings, right. Are they thinking about from their compute counterparties? Would they like upfront payments? Might they look to move financing off [the] balance sheet, if they have a very high-quality investment grade rated counterparty? So, there is some of this evolution around those solutions. And then a fourth key theme is just around the credit support. And Stephen has and I have talked about this around some of the Bitcoin miners – is that, you know, there can be these higher quality investment grade players that might look to lend their credit support. Maybe a lease backstop to other players in the ecosystem in order to get a better pricing on construction financing. And we are seeing some press pickup around how that might play out in chip financing down the road too. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. AI driven risk and potential disruption has been a big feature of the price action we've seen year-to-date in this theme. Stephen, what are some asset classes or businesses you see as resistant to some of this disruption? Stephen Byrd: We spend a lot of time thinking about, sort of, asset classes that are resistant to deflation and disruption. And what's interesting is there's actually a handful of economists in the world that are doing remarkable work on this concept. That they would call it the economics of transformative AI. There are three Americans, two Canadians, two Brits, a number of others who are doing really, really interesting work. And essentially what they're looking at is what do economies look like? As we see very powerful AI enter many industries – cause price reductions, deflation… What does that do? They have a lot of interesting takeaways, but one is this idea that the relative value of assets that cannot be deflated by AI goes up. Very simple idea. But think of it this way, I mean, there's only, you know, one principle resort on Kauai. You know, there's a limited amount of metals. And so, what we go through is this list that's gotten a lot of investor attention of resistant asset classes or more of the resistant asset classes that can go up in value. So, there are obvious ones like land, though you have to be a little careful with real estate in the sense that like, office real estate probably wouldn't be where you would go. Nor would you potentially go sort of towards middle income, lower income housing. But more, you know, think of industrial REITs, higher-end real estate. But there are a lot of other categories that are interesting to me. All kinds of infrastructure should be quite resistant, all kinds of critical materials. Metals should do extremely well in this. But then when you go beyond that, it's actually kind of interesting that there; arguably there's a longer list than those classic sort of land and metals examples.Examples here would be compute… Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Stephen Byrd: I thought Jensen put it, well, you know, if there's a limited amount of infrastructure available, you want to put the best compute. And ultimately, in some ways, intelligence becomes the new coin of the realm in the world, right? So, I would want to own the purveyors of intelligence. It could include high-end luxury. It could include unique human experiences. So, I don't know how many of y'all have children who are sort of college age. But my children are college age, and they absolutely hate what they would call AI slop.They want legit human content, and they seek it out. And they absolutely hate it when they see bad copies of human content. And so, I think there is a place in many parts of the economy for unique human experiences, unique human content, and it's interesting to kind of seek out where that might be in the economy. So those would be some examples of resistant assets. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, software's been at really the center of this AI disruption debate. How would you compare the current pullback in software multiples to prior periods of peak uncertainty? And do you think any of these concerns are valid? Or how are you thinking about that? Josh Baer: Great question. I mean, software multiples on an EV to sales basis are down 30 – 35 percent just from the fall, I will say. And that's overall in the group. A lot of stocks, multiple handfuls, are down 60-70 percent over the last year. And what's being priced in is really peak uncertainty, a lot of fear. And these multiples, now four times sales – takes us all the way back about 10 years to the shift to cloud. And this time in many ways reminds us of that period of peak fear. In this case, what's being priced in is terminal value risk. We talked about this TAM yesterday. But you know, who is going to win that share? How is it divided from a competitive perspective across these model providers? The LLMs with new entrants. Of course, the incumbents. And this other idea of in-housing. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh Baer: So, there's competitive risk, there's business model risk. Are companies going to need to change their pricing models from seat-based to consumption or hybrid. And then last margin risk. Just thinking about the higher input costs and higher capital intensity. And so, you know, all of those fears are being priced in right now. Michelle Weaver: And we, of course though, had a bunch of these companies live with us at the conference. How are they responding to some of these risks? How are they addressing these investor concerns? Josh Baer: Most of the companies here from our coverage are the incumbent software vendors. And I think that the leadership teams did a really nice job coming out and defending their competitive moats and really articulating the story of why they are in a great position to capitalize on the opportunity. And the reasons can vary across different companies. But some of the commonalities are around enterprise grade, trust, security, governance, acceptance from IT organizations.The idea of vibe coding all apps in an organization get squashed when you actually talk to companies and chief information officers. For some companies there's proprietary data moats, network effects. All of that's on top of existing customer relationships. And so, you know, that was the message from the companies that we had. That we're the incumbents. We get to use all of the same innovative AI technology in the same way that all these different competitive buckets do. But we have, you know, that differentiation in that moat. And so, we're in a good place. Michelle Weaver: I want to wrap on a positive note. Stephen, what did you hear at the conference that you're most excited about? Stephen Byrd: I'd say the life sciences. A few investors pointed out that perhaps AI has a PR problem these days. And I do think showing a significant benefit to humanity in terms of improved health outcomes, whether that's just better diagnosis, you know. Away from this event, but I was in India the week before and, you know, AI can have a powerful benefit to the people who suffer the most in terms of providing very powerful medical tools in a distributed manner. So, I'm a big fan there.But you know, in many ways, curing the most challenging diseases plaguing humanity. The kind of problems involved in providing those and developing those cures are perfect for AI. So that, for me – stepping way back – that is by far the most exciting thing. Michelle Weaver: Josh, same to you. What are you most excited about? Josh Baer: From my perspective, it's potentially the turning point for software. The ability to showcase that we are at this inflection point and acceleration. To actually see that it takes time for our software companies to develop new AI technologies. Put that into products that have been tested and proven and go through the enterprise adoption cycle. And that we're at the cusp of more adoption – that's what our survey work says. And to see that inflection, I think can help to rerate this sector. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, same question for you… Lindsay Tyler: Maybe I'll tie it to markets. I've already had a lot of more conversations with equity investors over the past, how many months? There's a big fixed income focus right now, which is a great, you know, spot and really interesting opportunity in my seat. And there's a lot of interesting structures coming to be right now in the credit space. So, I think it's an exciting time. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, Stephen, Josh, thank you very much for joining to recap the event and let us know what you learned at the conference. To our audience, thank you for listening here live. And to our audience tuning in, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Lydia DePillis, New York Times reporter covering the American economy, talks about how the war with Iran could affect the economy at home, as issues with oil prices, supply chains and the massive cost of the war begin to pile up. Photo credit: Natasha Chebanoo on Pexels.

A quick note to my MAGA acquaintance...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Veteran war correspondent Phil Ittner reports from Kiev, Ukraine. Will Iran surrender or will this war burn the world down? and “some people will die.” That's your president speaking of Americans. Prominent UAE billionaire Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor just published an open letter to Trump. It's brutal. Plus Kristi Noem is thrown out and an MMA fighter takes her place.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Inside Economics team tackles the tough economic data and developments of the past week. There was nothing redeeming in the February jobs numbers, as the economy struggles to create jobs and unemployment edges higher.  And this is before the fallout from the U.S. conflict with Iran hits the economy, which threatens to be considerable. The discussion ends on the question of how the fighting will be resolved, but there are no satisfying answers. Jenna Score: 7 Guests: Dante DeAntonio, Chris Lafakis, and Juan Pablo Fuentes For a deeper dive on AI and the macroeconomy, see our new paper, The Macroeconomic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence, where we model four potential economic paths over the next decade. We also walk through the scenarios in a companion webinar available now on-demand. Read the paper: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2B555C90-1118-4A49-BDAA-5C0A99F83A9E&app=download Watch the webinar: https://bit.ly/3OF6dn9 Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode Summary: In this episode of the Solar Maverick Podcast, Benoy Thanjan sits down with Hervé Billet, CEO and co-founder of Sunvoy, the first white-label customer portal and fleet management app built by solar installers for solar installers. Hervé shares his entrepreneurial journey, from helping design Belgium's first solar car to building and selling a solar installation company in the U.S., and now leading Sunvoy. The conversation covers what solar companies need to do to create long-term enterprise value, how branding and systems drive successful exits, and why clean accounting, process, and operational discipline matter if you want to sell a business. Benoy and Hervé also discuss how Sunvoy helps installers improve operations by bringing critical project and O&M data into one place, reducing time spent hunting for information and improving the customer experience. They also explore current solar industry trends, including the shift toward Third Party Ownership (“TPOs”) and leases, rising electricity prices as a driver of solar adoption, technology improvements in solar hardware and storage, and why installer-built software creates a real competitive advantage.   Biographies Benoy Thanjan Benoy Thanjan is the Founder and CEO of Reneu Energy, solar developer and consulting firm, and a strategic advisor to multiple cleantech startups. Over his career, Benoy has developed over 100 MWs of solar projects across the U.S., helped launch the first residential solar tax equity funds at Tesla, and brokered $45 million in Renewable Energy Credits (“REC”) transactions. Prior to founding Reneu Energy, Benoy was the Environmental Commodities Trader in Tesla's Project Finance Group, where he managed one of the largest environmental commodities portfolios. He originated REC trades and co-developed a monetization and hedging strategy with senior leadership to enter the East Coast market. As Vice President at Vanguard Energy Partners, Benoy crafted project finance solutions for commercial-scale solar portfolios. His role at Ridgewood Renewable Power, a private equity fund with 125 MWs of U.S. renewable assets, involved evaluating investment opportunities and maximizing returns. He also played a key role in the sale of the firm's renewable portfolio. Earlier in his career, Benoy worked in Energy Structured Finance at Deloitte & Touche and Financial Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, following an internship on the trading floor at D.E. Shaw & Co., a multi billion dollar hedge fund. Benoy holds an MBA in Finance from Rutgers University and a BS in Finance and Economics from NYU Stern, where he was an Alumni Scholar. Hervé Billet As the CEO of Sunvoy, I'm committed to empowering solar businesses with innovative technology that streamlines operations and enhances customer experience. Sunvoy is the first white-label customer portal and fleet management app, built by solar installers for solar installers. Our platform simplifies the complexities of running a solar business, enabling companies to scale efficiently with seamless integration and effortless results. Sunvoy offers powerful tools to manage solar fleets, automate communication, and deliver an exceptional customer journey, helping companies thrive in an increasingly competitive market. Previously, I served as the CEO of Ipsun Solar, where we revolutionized the residential and commercial solar market by enabling customers to own their power, reduce their utility bills, and add value to their properties through clean, renewable energy. Ipsun Solar, a B-Corporation, was known for its commitment to sustainability, being part of the Amicus and Amicus O&M networks, and serving as a certified Tesla Powerwall installer. Before venturing into the solar industry, I worked at Accenture, where I consulted with Fortune 500 companies, U.S. Federal agencies, and large non-profits. My projects included: Calculating Greenhouse Gas emissions for the U.S. Department of Energy Headquarters. Business development for Accenture's Sustainability Services. Leading digital implementation teams for organizations like Goodwill Industries International. Providing strategic support to global institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, UNICEF, United Nations, and U.S. Department of Labor. At 21, I co-founded my first company, Solar Team, an initiative to showcase the power of solar energy through solar-powered vehicles. This early venture sparked my enduring passion for renewable energy and continues to inspire my work today.   Stay Connected: Benoy Thanjan Email: info@reneuenergy.com  LinkedIn: Benoy Thanjan Website: https://www.reneuenergy.com Website: https://www.solarmaverickpodcast.com/   Hervé Billet Website: https://sunvoy.com/  Linkedin:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/hervebilliet/      Please provide 5 star reviews      If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, review and share the Solar Maverick Podcast so more people can learn how to accelerate the clean energy transition.    Reneu Energy Reneu Energy provides expert consulting across solar and storage project development, financing, energy strategy, and environmental commodities. Our team helps clients originate, structure, and execute opportunities in community solar, C&I, utility-scale, and renewable energy credit markets. Email us at info@reneuenergy.com to learn more.

Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss: Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading Diversification as the "Free Lunch" Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity" The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis China's Sceptical Data Copper vs. Iron Divergence The Future of Systematic Investing 

According to a December 2025 report from the Centre for Future Work, fossil fuel jobs in Canada are in decline and will likely continue to drop in the years to come. Not just because of climate policy, but because of technology, economic changes, resource limits and corporate greed. As director of the Centre for Future Work Jim Stanford explains, many fossil fuel workers are close to retirement, and surveys show they're most interested in early retirement options and transition plans supported by unions. The issue of fossil fuel jobs in decline isn't about whether or not they will continue to decline (they will), but about how to manage the transition fairly for workers.  About our guest  Jim Stanford is economist and director of the Centre for Future Work, a progressive labour economics institute based in Vancouver. He has a PhD in economics from the New School for Social Research in New York, and also holds economics degrees from Cambridge University and the University of Calgary. He is the author of Economics for Everyone, which has been translated into six languages. If you like the show please consider subscribing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and now: subscribe to rabble on Patreon to hear exclusive bonus episodes of rabble radio.

Are we going to be able to fight this war and still retain the capacity to stop Russia or China in Ukraine or Taiwan? Is ICE Tracking Your Phone Without a Warrant? Attorney and commentator Dean Obeidallah breaks down Trump's refusal to be honest with the American people on why Trump really went to war with Iran.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As Iran's leaders gathered to debate a U.S.-brokered nuclear deal, American and Israeli intelligence already knew their location. Was this diplomacy, or something darker?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week we acknowledge the US strikes on Iran and the escalation that has followed. The immediate human cost is what matters most right now. But this crisis is unfolding within a global system still shaped by oil markets and fossil fuel dependence - a dependence that amplifies regional instability and turns into global vulnerability.The same structural tensions sit at the heart of this week's conversation, recorded before these events. Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, one of its largest coal exporters, and a nation with every natural resource it needs to transition to clean energy. The problem isn't will, it's money. Who it's available to, and on what terms.Christiana Figueres, Tom Rivett-Carnac and Paul Dickinson are joined by Sri Mulyani Indrawati - Indonesia's former Finance Minister under three different presidents, former Managing Director of the World Bank, and one of the most credible voices in the world on exactly this set of challenges. She walks through what it actually costs to retire a single coal plant years ahead of schedule, why developing countries find themselves trapped by contracts they signed in good faith, and why the international finance system is making the transition harder, not easier.Countries like Indonesia borrow at far higher rates than wealthier economies, even as they face greater exposure to climate impacts. When that exposure feeds into credit ratings, the cost of capital rises, making clean energy investment more expensive precisely where it is needed most.In a system that makes decarbonisation harder for the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, who pays?Learn More:

On this episode, Watson School Dean and economist John Friedman talks with economist Sebnem Kalemli Ozcan about how U.S. economic policy in the last year has changed the American economy, how those changes have rippled throughout the global economic and financial system, and what it means for America's place in a rapidly evolving international order.Sebnem Kalemli Ozcan is a professor of economics at Brown and the director of the Global Linkages Lab, a collaborative research hub dedicated to deepening our understanding of globalization. Starting in July, she'll also be serving as the director of the Watson School's Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance.John Friedman is Vascellaro Family Dean of the Watson School, and Briger Family Distinguished Professor of Economics and International and Public AffairsTranscript coming soon to our website.Watch this episode of Trending Globally on YouTube.

David Harsanyi, senior writer at The Washington Examiner and co-host of the You’re Wrong podcast with Mollie Hemingway, on their favorite writings, books, and authors on economics and the recent Israeli-American military action against Iran. They dive into the complexities of neoconservatism, discussing its origins, misuse, and implications. David shares his thoughts on the term's evolution, highlighting its initial focus on social and domestic policy, and how it's now often used as an epithet. They also explore the differences between the U.S.'s approach to recent airstrikes in Iran and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The conversation touches on the need for a more nuanced understanding of the Middle East and the role of the U.S. in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As inequality gets worse and worse, hostility for elites is at all time highs, and huge majorities of voters want higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy to pay for social programs, all the conditions are perfect for the left to be... Continue Reading →

In this episode, Al Roxburgh and Jenny Sinclair welcome back Luigino Bruni for a second conversation, this time exploring how churches and religious orders confront crisis. An economist and scholar of organisational life, Bruni reflects on what is at stake when Christian communities lose confidence. Attentive to the extent that the methods of management culture have become defaults for many church systems, he observes how communities are losing touch with the core of what it means to be God's people. At the heart of a Christian community is the presence of Jesus among the people of God, and the task of those entrusted with care and oversight is to help their people discern the movements of the Spirit, both among them, and in their local communities. Bruni counsels that this is not the work of outside consultants bringing business models into the church. He cautions that outsourcing can lead to confusion and weaken the heart of communal life. Instead, he believes that in the midst of our great unravelling, churches and communities facing difficulty have a special calling. He insists that “crisis itself has precious things to teach”, and that at such times, the work of a community is to embrace practices of discernment that are rooted in the confidence that Christ is among them making all things new.  Professor Luigino Bruni is an economist, an historian of economic thought and a scholar of organisational life. He is Professor of Political Economy at the Lumsa University in Rome, a public non-state Italian university formed on Catholic principles. Here he also coordinates the Phd Programme in Civil Economy. His scholarship of economics extends to biblical commentaries on the history of economic thought as well as to the religious nature of capitalism. Professor Bruni is involved in many grassroots projects devoted to developing a new economic paradigm: he is International Co-ordinator of the Economy of Communion project, a Board member of the Economy of Francesco Foundation and a member of the international Focolare movement. In addition, he is Editor-in-Chief of the International Review of Economics, an active columnist and author of many books.LinksFor Luigino Brunihttps://www.luiginobruni.it/en/https://www.luiginobruni.it/it/ec-ea.htmlhttps://francescoeconomy.org/eof-board/https://lumsa.it/it/docenti/luigino-brunihttps://www.edc-online.org/it/header-pubblicazioni/luigino-bruni.htmlhttps://www.luiginobruni.it/en/ec-ea/communities-are-not-businesses-managerial-culture-extinguishes-charisma.htmlhttps://www.luiginobruni.it/en/ec-ea/mother-superior-or-leader-the-convent-is-not-a-business.htmlBooksThe Genesis and Ethos of the MarketCivil Economy: Another Idea of the Market co-authored with Stefano ZamagniThe Wound and the Blessing: Economics, Relationships, and HappinessCapitalism and Christianity: Origins, Spirit and Betrayal of the Market EconomyThe Economy of Salvation: Ethical and Anthropological Foundations of Market Relations in the First Two Books of the BibleThe Economics of Values-Based Organisations: An IntroductionFurther books in English listed herehttps://www.luiginobruni.it/en/books.htmlFor Alan J Roxburgh:http://alanroxburgh.com/abouthttps://www.facebook.com/alan.roxburgh.127/https://www.facebook.com/thecommonsnetworkBooksForming Communities of Hope in the Great Unraveling: Leadership in a Changing World (with Roy Searle)Practices for the Refounding of God's People: The Missional Challenge of the West (with Martin Robinson)Joining God in the Great UnravelingLeadership, God's Agency and DisruptionsJoining God, Remaking Church, Changing the World: The New Shape of the Church in Our TimeFor Jenny Sinclair:https://t4cg.substack.com/s/editorialshttps://t4cg.substack.com/s/from-jenny-sinclairhttps://togetherforthecommongood.co.uk/from-jenny-sinclairhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jenny-sinclair-0589783b/https://x.com/T4CGhttps://www.facebook.com/TogetherForTheCommonGoodUKhttps://www.instagram.com/t4cg_insta/ Get full access to Leaving Egypt at leavingegyptpodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave discusses Marco Rubio's honesty about the motivation for attacking Iran, connection to previous terror wars, Trump's damage to his second term broadly, and more.Support Our Sponsors:My Patriot Supply - http://preparelikedave.comRidge - https://ridge.com/potp10Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore assess the potential market outcomes of the Middle East conflict, weighing its possible duration and economic impact.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, the market reaction, and what investors should be watching for next. It's Wednesday, March 4th at 7:30am in San Francisco. Ariana Salvatore: And 10:30am in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, I'm in San Francisco at Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference, but obviously events in the Middle East have captured everyone's attention. There's uncertainty around the conflict and really important questions about how it affects all of us. And of course, markets have to discount all sorts of future uncertainty about very specific impacts – to financial asset prices, to commodity prices – and really look at it through that narrow lens.And so, Ariana, the administration has suggested that this conflict and this campaign could last a few weeks. But also it said it could continue as long as it takes. So, what are the clearest signals investors should watch for to gauge duration? Ariana Salvatore: For now, we're focused on three main indicators. First, I would say, and most important, is clarity around the objectives. The president and others in the administration have referenced things like eliminating Iran's missile arsenal, its navy and limiting proxy activity. Those goals are broader than the earlier focus on just the nuclear programs. Each objective, of course, implies a different timeline. A narrower objective likely means a shorter engagement. Broader ambitions, conversely, would extend it. So that's the first thing. Second, obviously extremely important is traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We'd viewed a full closure as unlikely, given the economic consequences for Iran itself. But tanker flows have at least temporarily fallen close to zero, and that's significant because production across the region has not been impaired. This is not about oil fields going offline. It's about whether or not oil can actually move. If shipping lanes normalize within weeks, markets can recalibrate. However, if flows remain materially curtailed beyond five weeks, the risks rise meaningfully. Third, the frequency of strikes and proxy activity. Sustained or escalating engagement would suggest a longer conflict. Signs of diplomacy, on the other hand, might indicate de-escalation. Michael Zezas: Right. So, let's build on that and talk about oil. And our colleague, Martijn Rats has really laid this out with a lot of different scenarios. But what we're seeing right now is that when it comes to oil, this is really a shock to the transport of it, not necessarily a shock to its production. So, oil supply exists. The question is really – can it be delivered or not? So, if tanker flows normalize and the geopolitical risk premium fades, what Martijn is saying is that global oil prices could move back towards $60 to $65 a barrel. If the logistical disruption lasts four to five weeks, then prices maybe trade in the $75 to $80 range. And if disruption extends beyond five weeks and flows are materially constrained, then you could see a situation where oil prices have to rise towards $120 or $130 a barrel. And at that level, demand destruction is what becomes the balancing mechanism in setting price for oil. So, one signal to watch is longer dated oil prices. Early month contracts can spike during geopolitical stress, but a sustained move materially above $80 to $85 [per] barrel would likely require longer dated prices to move higher as well. And that might signal that markets believe the disruption is persistent and not temporary. Ariana, what about natural gas here? How does gas situation fit into the energy story? Ariana Salvatore: As of this recording, Qatar has halted liquified natural gas production putting roughly 20 percent of global supply at risk. Prices have, as you might expect, risen sharply, which likely reflects expectations of a relatively short disruption. If exports were to resume quickly, prices could retrace. But, of course, if the outage lasts longer, prices could move meaningfully higher. Again, duration of the conflict is really critical here. Michael Zezas: So, let's bring this back to the U.S. Ariana, how does this conflict feed into the domestic, political and economic backdrop? Ariana Salvatore: When we're thinking about the midterm elections later this year, the way we see it, the clearest transmission channel is gasoline prices. Polling shows a majority of Americans oppose military action related to Iran, but voters typically prioritize domestic issues: things like inflation, cost of living, affordability over foreign policy. However, there's a very clear caveat here. If oil prices stay elevated, gasoline prices rise, and that's where this becomes politically more salient. Michael Zezas: Right, and so our economists and our chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen has been all over this. And the way he assesses it is if oil prices remain about 10 percent higher than where they were before the conflict for several months, headline inflation would likely rise by 0.3 percent before dissipating. Historically, oil price shocks primarily affect headline inflation rather than underlying inflation. That's an important distinction that they point out. So maybe that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, even if policymakers ultimately look through the move. But if oil prices rise enough to weaken economic activity, particularly in the labor market or consumer spending, then our economists say the Fed could pivot toward easing despite elevated inflation. Ariana Salvatore: So, given that backdrop, what's the simple takeaway for investors in stocks or bonds? Michael Zezas: Right. So, I think we have to think about this in terms of duration of conflict and economic impact. So, if tanker flows normalize within a few weeks and oil prices move back towards that $60 to $65 range, then our economists are saying economic damage would be limited. And historically geopolitical events alone have not led to sustained volatility for U.S. equities. So, in that environment, our cross-asset team points out that stocks would likely remain supported. If instead, oil prices remain elevated long enough to push inflation higher and weigh on growth, the picture would change. A sharp and persistent rise in oil prices – that can pose a risk to the duration of the business cycle, and in that scenario, we'd expect stocks to struggle. Importantly, bonds may not provide the same diversification benefit if inflation remains sticky as a consequence of all of this. We could see stock and bond prices move in the same direction. That could challenge traditional balanced portfolios. Ariana Salvatore: And what are we seeing specifically in U.S. Treasury markets? Michael Zezas: So, as Matt Hornbach and our global macro strategy team have pointed out here, you've got two competing forces in the U.S. Treasury market. There's been some demand for safety, but investors are also focused on the risk that higher oil prices would lift inflation. So far, inflation concerns have taken precedence over growth concerns. How long that balance holds – that might depend on incoming data, especially labor market data. If you get weaker labor market data suggesting that growth could weaken, then you could see treasuries rally more meaningfully and yields come down. If you don't see that and inflation concerns dominate, then maybe you're not going to see yields come down as much. And bonds rally as much. Ariana Salvatore: So, stepping back, it seems like the key variables remain tanker traffic, longer dated oil prices and duration of the conflict itself. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. Ariana, thanks for speaking with me. Ariana Salvatore: Always a pleasure, Mike. Michael Zezas: And thanks to our listeners for joining us. We'll continue tracking developments and what they mean for markets. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Can Democrats Keep Flipping Red Seats? Thom reviews the interesting recent election results. Also what's up with the Epstein Walk of Shame Near the White House? Kash Patel ousted FBI staff with Iran expertise right before Trump declared war on them. Say what?! Plus ~ Can Sci Fi help save the future? Information Scientist Martin Halbert, PhD reveals the meaning of Helmsman: Book One of the Sojourner Saga.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

History shows how suddenly national tragedy can transform a struggling leader into a wartime commander, and why that precedent should make Americans uneasy today…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Allison Schrager and Rafael Mangual discuss the nuances of conservative economics, the importance of free markets, the role of incentives, and the impact of regulation. They explore the philosophical underpinnings of economic thought, the significance of risk tolerance, and the influential thinkers who contributed to modern economic understanding.

Global oil and gas prices have skyrocketed as war halts energy exports from the Middle East. The strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage of water that facilitates the shipping of about a fifth of the world's oil, has been in effect closed since the regional war began, prompting fears of a global economic crisis. According to reports, traffic has dropped by about 80%, but how long until we feel the effects? Nosheen Iqbal speaks to the Guardian's head of business, John Collingridge – watch on YouTube. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Synopsis:   From Resistance to Revolution How Communities Are Creating a New Economy This show is made possible by you! To become a sustaining member go to LauraFlanders.org/donate Description: People across the country are resisting authoritarianism in creative and powerful ways, and this is just the start. The folks at The People's Network for Land & Liberation (PNLL) say the forces that got us here are bigger than one bad leader; entire systems must be taken down. Building a brighter future requires a vision of economic and social justice — and lots of practice. Today on Laura Flanders & Friends, we look at some of those practical experiments and paths for radical change, and discuss why they're just as important as resistance. The members of PNLL, a multiracial, multiethnic consortium of six community-based organizations, are doing politics and economics differently in real places across the U.S. right now. Joining us are Edget Betru, an attorney, activist and Coordinator of the People's Network for Land & Liberation; David Cobb, PNLL staff person and Co-coordinator of the U.S. Solidarity Economy Network; and Blair Evans, Founder and Executive Director of Incite Focus, a production and training lab based in Idlewild, Michigan. Find out how to build for the future — even in the toughest circumstances. All that, plus a commentary from Laura on William Morris's News From Nowhere. “We've been colonized in our minds . . . Involving people in day-to-day produce, meeting their needs through a different way, through thinking, Hey, who in my neighborhood knows how to fix this? . . . It's really that shift in consciousness that needs to happen that's going to allow for this new economy to emerge.” - Edget Betru “My mama and my mamaw and my papa who raised me taught me a lesson as a little boy, and that is, there's enough to go around as long as we share. That made sense to me when I was five years old. It makes sense to me now when I'm 63 years old. There's enough to go around as long as we share. It's just as simple as that.” - David Cobb “We can make things that make things, we can design and build our own equipment that can then use locally sourced materials, hyper localizing the supply chain . . . We can stop feeding the monster that's consuming us and actually disconnect from that process and use what we have.” - Blair Evans Guests: • Edget Betru: Coordinator, People's Network for Land & Liberation; Board Member, Community Movement Builders • David Cobb: Staff, People's Network for Land & Liberation; Manager, Butterfly Impact Fund; Co-Coordinator, U.S. Solidarity Economy Network • Blair Evans: Coalition Member, People's Network for Land & Liberation; Founder & Executive Director, Incite Focus; Designer & Trainer, Fab Lab   Watch on YouTube this episode that includes video clips referenced in this episode from Third World Newsreel; PBS World Channel 11:30am ET Sundays and on over 300 public stations across the country (check your listings, or search here via zipcode). Listen: Episode airing on community radio (check here to see if your station airs the show). Full Conversation Release: While our weekly shows are edited to time for broadcast on Public TV and community radio, we offer to our members and podcast subscribers the full uncut conversation.  Music Credit:  "Solace" by Antibalas from their album Hourglass released on Daptone Records, 'Steppin' by Podington Bear, and original sound design by Jeannie Hopper Support Laura Flanders and Friends by becoming a member at https://www.patreon.com/c/lauraflandersandfriends   RESOURCES:   Full Episode Notes are located HERE. *Recommended book: “Beautiful Solutions: A Toolbox for Liberation”, Learn More Here* (*Bookshop is an online bookstore with a mission to financially support local, independent bookstores. The LF Show is an affiliate of bookshop.org and will receive a small commission if you click through and make a purchase.)   Related Laura Flanders Show Episodes: •  Jackson Rising: Creating the Mondragon of the South: Watch •  Resisting Trump & Authoritarianism: The “Beautiful Solutions” Toolbox:  Watch / Listen •  Community Wealth Building: An Economic Reset: Watch / Listen:  Full Uncut Conversation and Episode Cut Related Articles and Resources: •  Community Movement Builders' Community Sea Moss Cooperative •  Tale of the Tape:  An Expert Weighs In on the ‘Cop City' Bodycam Footage, by Madeline Thigpen, February 15, 2023, Capital B • Cooperation Jackson, The Build and Fight Educational Series •  The Butterfly Effect Fund •  Cooperation Vermont, Seeding the Alternatives for the Future •  Cooperation Vermont Buys Former Rainbow Sweets Building, by Paul Fixx, February 4, 2025, The Hardwick Gazette • Incite Focus, where ideas and imagination meet inspiration and innovation •  Wellspring Cooperative, building a just and sustainable economy, one co-op at a time •  U.S. Solidarity Economy Network (US SEN) Laura Flanders and Friends Crew: Laura Flanders-Executive Producer, Writer; Sabrina Artel-Supervising Producer; Jeremiah Cothren-Senior Producer; Veronica Delgado-Video Editor, Janet Hernandez-Communications Director; Jeannie Hopper-Audio Director, Podcast & Radio Producer, Audio Editor, Sound Design, Narrator; Sarah Miller-Development Director, Nat Needham-Editor, Graphic Design emeritus; David Neuman-Senior Video Editor, and Rory O'Conner-Senior Consulting Producer. 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Ted Joyce is a Professor of Economics at Baruch College and the Graduate Center, the City University of New York and a Research Associate in the National Bureau of Economic Research's program in Health Economics. He has published extensively in the area economic demography and reproductive health policy.  His work on abortion policy has appeared in the Journal of Political Economy, New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Journal of Human Resources and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His most recent work is on the evaluation of programs to improve the academic outcomes of low-income students in higher-education. Dr. Joyce is on the Editorial Board for the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Part 2 The discussion included the following topics: the speed at which change can occur; AI impact on higher education institutions and academic health science centers; trends regarding how AI and online learning might influence one another; and emerging ethical questions that must be addressed.    

Defense technology is advancing rapidly, and the rise of the autonomous drone is at the center of the latest wave of military innovation. In this conversation with Jeffrey Wright and Alistair Xhayet of SplashOne, we explore how new startups are rethinking aerial combat and the economics of modern warfare.SplashOne is developing an autonomous drone designed to hunt and intercept other drones in flight. As drone swarms become more common on modern battlefields, traditional missile systems can be too expensive to keep up with the scale and speed of these threats.The team behind SplashOne believes the future of military innovation may come from reusable fighter drones capable of intercepting hostile drones repeatedly rather than destroying themselves like traditional missiles.Jeffrey Wright, a recently retired military strategist specializing in drone warfare, and Alistair Xhayet, who helps lead operations and growth at SplashOne, discuss why the battlefield is shifting toward autonomous systems and how startups are driving the next generation of defense technology.In this conversation we discuss:• Why cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare• The rise of the autonomous drone in defense technology• The economics of drones versus traditional missile systems• Military innovation coming from startups rather than large defense contractors• How systems like Roadrunner are influencing the next generation of drone defense• Why AI and autonomy will define the future of aerial combatWhether you're interested in defense technology, autonomous drone systems, startups, or military innovation, this discussion offers a look at how engineers and founders are building the next generation of aerial defense.Chapters:0:00 The Drone That Hunts Drones (Cold Open)1:03 Introduction to SplashOne and the Future of Drone Warfare2:37 Why Cheap Drones Are Changing Modern Warfare5:00 The Economics of Missiles vs Autonomous Drones6:38 The $2 Billion Question: Can Drones Replace Missiles?7:56 The Concept of Reusable Fighter Drones10:00 How Autonomous Drones Could Win Air Battles11:53 AI, Autonomy, and the Future of Air Combat14:43 The Drone Swarm Problem Militaries Face Today17:45 How Startups Are Driving Military Innovation22:32 The Technology Behind Drone Interception29:54 What the Battlefield of the Future Will Look Like______________________________________________________________If this episode inspires you to be part of the movement, and you believe, like me, that entrepreneurs are the answer to our future, message me so we can join forces to support building truly great companies in our region. -Subscribe to my channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCom_​... -  Mark Haney is a serial entrepreneur that has experience growing companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He is currently the CEO and founder of HaneyBiz -  Instagram: http://instagram.com/themarkhaney​ Facebook: www.facebook.com/themarkhaney LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markehaney​ Website: http://haneybiz.com​ Audio Boom: https://audioboom.com/channels/5005273​  Twitter: http://twitter.com/themarkhaney-This video includes personal knowledge, experiences, and opinions about Angel Investing by seasoned angel investors.  This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.  Nothing in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement.#thebackyardadvantage #themarkhaneyshow #entrepreneur #PowerOfWith #SacramentoEntrepreneur #Sacramento#SacramentoSmallBusiness #SmallBusiness #GrowthFactory #Investor#Podcast

Ukraine has lost close to a quarter of its civilian workforce since the invasion. Three and a half million workers left government-controlled areas: mobilised into the armed forces, displaced inside the country, gone abroad as refugees, or killed. Giacomo Anastasia, Tito Boeri, and Oleksandr Zholud draw on an unprecedented wartime dataset to document how Ukraine's labour market adapted under that pressure. What they find is not what you might expect. Aggregate matching efficiency fell by only about 15%; less than the decline recorded in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Firms hired women into roles previously closed to them by law, took on older workers and people with disabilities, and expanded remote work to keep displaced employees and refugees connected to Ukrainian payrolls. The collapse was real, but concentrated: in contested territories near the frontline, employment fell to less than half its pre-war level and vacancy postings dropped to virtually zero. The question the paper poses for reconstruction is how to sustain that resilience, absorb close to a million returning soldiers, and begin to reverse what five years of disrupted schooling has done to a generation.The research behind this episode:Anastasia, Giacomo M., Tito Boeri, and Oleksandr Zholud. 2026. "A Wartime Labor Market: The Case of Ukraine." Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues, special issue: "What's Next for Ukraine?"To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim. 2026. "What's Next for Ukraine: A Wartime Labour Market." Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues (podcast).Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestsGiacomo Anastasia is a PhD student in Economics at Columbia University and Columbia Business School. His research interests include public economics, labour economics, and industrial organisation.Tito Boeri is Professor of Economics at Bocconi University and one of Europe's leading authorities on labour markets, unemployment insurance, and welfare state reform. He served as President of INPS, Italy's national social security institution, from 2015 to 2019.Oleksandr Zholud is a researcher at the National Bank of Ukraine. He was central to maintaining the economic data systems that continued to function through the war, and which made the empirical work in this paper possible. Research cited in this episodeThe civilian labour force contraction is estimated at roughly twenty to twenty-five per cent of the pre-war workforce in government-controlled areas, equivalent to a loss of around 3.5 million workers. The calculation combines refugees abroad (between six and seven million, of whom approximately seventy per cent are of working age), military mobilisation (at least 800,000 since 2022, up from 250,000 before the war), and combat casualties. The authors note that a shock of this scale has almost no modern precedent; the closest comparisons are Serbia's losses in the First World War and the economic disruption caused by the 1994 Rwandan genocide.Work.ua is the largest online job-search platform in Ukraine, covering around 125,000 firms and 4.5 million workers. The paper draws on weekly data from Work.ua on vacancy postings, job-seeker resumes, and offered and expected wages to track labour market dynamics across sectors and regions throughout the war. This platform data continued to be updated through the conflict and provided the primary source for the paper's matching analysis, replacing the State Statistics Service household survey, which suspended publication after the invasion.The InfoSapiens household survey, commissioned by the National Bank of Ukraine since 2021, serves as the wartime replacement for the State Statistics Service quarterly Labour Force Survey. It interviews around 1,000 individuals per quarter on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation, stratified by gender, age, region, and settlement size. Despite its smaller sample, it remains the primary regular survey-based source on Ukraine's labour market since the full-scale invasion.The State Employment Service (SES) firm survey, conducted in January 2025 in cooperation with Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, covered 55,000 enterprises employing 4.2 million workers plus 70,000 registered unemployed persons. This cross-sectional survey provided the paper's evidence on how recruitment practices, remote work adoption, and workforce composition changed after the invasion; it is described in the paper as one of the largest wartime enterprise surveys of its kind.Air raid alarm data are used as the paper's proxy for regional exposure to the war. When missiles or drone attacks are detected, sirens activate across affected areas; the authors use the frequency and duration of these alarms to classify Ukrainian regions on a spectrum from low-exposure (western oblasts such as Lviv) to high-exposure (eastern regions such as Kharkiv) to contested (partially or fully occupied territories including parts of Donetsk and Luhansk). This classification is the basis for the paper's finding that war intensity is the primary driver of differences in labour market outcomes across regions.Matching efficiency is a standard labour economics measure of how effectively the market converts a given stock of unemployed workers and open vacancies into new hires. A fall in matching efficiency means that jobs and workers exist but find each other more slowly. The paper estimates that Ukraine's aggregate matching efficiency declined by about fifteen per cent after the invasion; a smaller fall than the more than twenty per cent recorded in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis, though with severe deterioration concentrated in frontline and contested regions, where matching efficiency dropped by close to twenty-five per cent.Remote work as a retention mechanism. A survey of Ukrainian refugees abroad found that roughly forty per cent of those in employment were working for Ukrainian firms remotely. Those maintaining an employment link to a Ukrainian company reported a significantly higher intention to return to Ukraine after the war compared with refugees employed by foreign firms. Anastasia argues this makes remote work not only an economic adaptation but a tool for sustaining the connection between displaced workers and the country they may one day return to rebuild.More in the "What's Next for Ukraine?" seriesThis episode is the third and final in a series based on papers presented at the inaugural Economic Policy winter conference, Paris, December 2025.Episode 1, with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld: why $40 billion a year in investment is more achievable than it sounds, why deep debt restructuring is a prerequisite for attracting private capital, and what the Euroclear frozen assets could unlock. Episode 2, with Edward Glaeser, Martina Kirchberger, and Andrii Parkhomenko: why the right model for rebuilding Ukraine's cities is postwar Tokyo rather than postwar Berlin or Warsaw, and why directing reconstruction spending towards the most damaged regions would be rebuilding in the wrong direction. Related reading on VoxEUThe labour market in Ukraine: Rebuild better, the companion VoxEU column by Anastasia, Boeri, and Zholud, summarising the paper's findings on matching efficiency, firm adjustment, and the policy priorities for reconstruction. You only live twice: A growth strategy for Ukraine, Gorodnichenko and Obstfeld's companion column to Episode 1, making the case for $40 billion a year in investment and explaining why EU and NATO accession momentum is the key enabling condition.Rebuilding cities in Ukraine, a VoxEU column on the spatial and urban decisions that will shape how Ukraine's cities develop in the decades after the war, and why the Tokyo model of decentralised land readjustment is the right precedent.

When should we leap instead of take the obvious next step? Why do we instinctively see gender everywhere? When do our opinions begin to feel less like ideas and more like our identity?If/Then, from Stanford Graduate School of Business, is back with a new season of sharp, surprising conversations that deepen our understanding of business and leadership.Each episode brings you into the room with a Stanford GSB faculty member as they discuss their research and how it challenges conventional wisdom, sharpens judgment, and reframes the way we approach complex decisions. Join us on Wednesdays for a new season of If/Then.What do you want to hear on If/Then? Email us at ifthenpod@stanford.edu.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Iqbal Chand Malhotra is a distinguished media producer and author known for his work on geopolitical history and strategic affairs. He holds a first-class degree in Economics from Queens' College, University of Cambridge.Media Career: He is the Chairman and Producer of AIM Television Pvt. Ltd. Over his career, he has produced over 500 hours of television programming and served as an advisor on India to media mogul Rupert Murdoch (1993–1995), helping to launch MTV in India.Malhotra has directed several award-winning documentaries, often focusing on historical mysteries and security issues. Notable titles include The Legend of Malerkotla, Netaji Bose and the Lost Treasure, and Kashmir's Troubled Waters. He is a long-standing member of the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences and has served as a juror for the International Emmy Awards.He has written extensively on conflict and strategy. His books include Red Fear: The China Threat and Dark Secrets: Politics, Intrigue and Proxy Wars in Kashmir. He also co-authored Kashmir's Untold Story: Declassified.

All Else Equal is on Spring Break this week, so we're revisiting one of our most popular episodes dealing with the question: How does one become a CEO? We'll be back with new episodes in two weeks.  A lot has been written and said about CEOs and their compensation, but who are they really and how did they get there? According to the data, what are the most likely paths to become one? In this episode, hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen are joined by Dirk Jenter, Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics, for a fascinating discussion of CEOs, including the surprising truths about who rises to the rank of CEO and from where, as well as exploring the issue of CEO pay, and how it could be justified.    Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Can you afford to get married? Or get a divorce?Nothing sets the internet on fire more than the fantasy of finding a partner (usually a man) to pay for your lifestyle. We're here to put those fires out: dating across class is rare (we will explain why) and financial differences can hurt the partner who has less. Plus, with more women becoming the breadwinners, are women actually the new power partners?Brittany is joined by Wailin Wong, Business and Economics journalist and co-host of The Indicator from Planet Money, and Reema Khrais, host of Marketplace's This is Uncomfortable (which just had a BRAND NEW season drop. Check it out!)Want more episodes on dating and finances? Check out these episodes:Is marriage worth it? Single women say no.Want to date a rich man? It's harder than you think.Your date gave you 'The Ick?' That might be a YOU problem.Support Public Media. Join NPR Plus.Follow Brittany on Instagram: @bmluseFor handpicked podcast recommendations every week, subscribe to NPR's Pod Club newsletter at npr.org/podclub.To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss the immediate fallout of the attack on Iran, Trump's comments that more Americans will die, statements from Ted Cruz, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Recover & Regenerate. Click www.twc.health/problem and use code PROBLEM for 10% off on every order + Free Shipping for US residentsBodyBrain - Go to BodyBrainCoffee.com, use code DAVE20 for 20% off your first orderProlon - https://prolonlife.com/potpBrunt Workwear - http://bruntworkwear.com/ Use code PROBLEMPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China's travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.It's Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong. I've just gotten back from my Lunar New Year trip to mainland China. With the longest Chinese New Year break in history, people were out roaming, exploring, laughing, and the whole country felt like it was buzzing with people on a mission to enjoy every minute. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, total domestic tourism spending recorded a robust 19 percent year-on-year growth during the holiday. In fact, China's tourism industry isn't just rebounding after the pandemic. It's entering a structurally stronger phase, supported by policy tailwinds, demographic shifts, and a clear pivot toward experience-driven consumption. By 2030, tourism revenue could reach RMB 12 trillion – equal to roughly USD $1.7 trillion – implying 11 percent annual growth from the mid-2020s. Over the next five years, cumulative domestic and inbound revenue may approach RMB 50 trillion, or USD $7.2 trillion. That scale makes travel more than a cyclical recovery – it's becoming a core pillar of China's consumption-led growth. We expect tourism's share of GDP to rise to about 6.7 percent by 2030, up from 4.8 percent in 2024.Domestic travel remains the backbone. People aren't just traveling again; they're traveling more than before. Policy is reinforcing demand. Extended public holidays, new school breaks, and event-driven tourism are boosting activity. In 2025 alone, around 3,000 large-scale performances attracted more than 43 million attendees. And spending reflects that shift. Domestic tourism spending reached RMB 6.3 trillion in 2025, about 11 percent above pre-COVID levels. Even with slightly lower spend per trip, more frequent travel is lifting overall revenue.International travel is emerging as a second growth engine. By 2030, inbound travel could represent 16 percent of total tourism revenue. In late 2025, inbound visitor growth in major cities was up about 30–50 percent year-over-year, supported by expanded visa-free access, which now accounts for the majority of foreign arrivals. These visitors often stay longer and spend more. Outbound travel is strengthening too. International air traffic grew 22 percent in 2025, far outpacing domestic growth, and now contributes a meaningful share of airline revenue. Demographics and technology are reinforcing the trend. Younger consumers prioritize travel, while older households – with substantial savings – are beginning to spend more as services improve. At the same time, smart hotels, virtual reality attractions, and data-driven operations are enhancing engagement and willingness to pay. This isn't just pent-up demand. It's policy, demographics, technology, and supply aligning at once. – with travel at the center of China's consumption story.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Is Deporting a Journalist the Ultimate Form of Cancel Culture?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump has made many promises that he can't keep. Will that remain true for the midterms? Plus Fox News has duped HALF The Nation with their FAKE NEWS! How did we get here? Writer, policy advisor, litigator, and 25 year federal trial lawyer, Sabrina Haake gives her take on our "news" today.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

There is one truth that has followed every major technological revolution in human history. Energy demand always rises to meet technological capability. When we industrialized, coal consumption exploded. When we built the modern transportation system, oil demand reshaped global geopolitics. When we entered the digital age, electricity quietly became the backbone of the global economy. And now we are entering the AI era. What most people don't appreciate is that AI is not just a software revolution. It is an electricity revolution. Training a single advanced AI model can consume as much electricity as tens of thousands of homes use in an entire year. And once trained, these models continue to run inside data centers filled with specialized hardware operating 24 hours a day. A single large AI data center can require over 1 gigawatt of power. To put that into perspective, that's enough electricity to power roughly 700,000 homes. One building consuming the equivalent of a major city. Now consider that companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are planning dozens of these facilities. Suddenly, you begin to see the scale of what's happening. Even individual AI queries consume more power than traditional computing tasks meaningfully. One estimate suggests an AI query can use roughly 10 times the electricity of a traditional search query. That difference seems trivial until you multiply it by billions of interactions per day. This is why, for the first time in decades, electricity demand in the United States is accelerating again. For nearly 20 years, electricity demand was relatively flat. Efficiency gains offset economic growth. But AI, electrification of transportation, and domestic manufacturing are reversing that trend. And here's where the story becomes even more interesting. China understands this. China is building power infrastructure at a pace that is difficult to comprehend. They are adding entire national-scale power capacity every few years. In 2023 alone, China added more new coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined. At the same time, they are installing solar and wind at record rates, becoming the global leader in renewable deployment. They are not choosing one energy source. They are choosing all of them. Because they understand that energy availability determines technological leadership. Meanwhile, in the United States, building new power plants and transmission infrastructure can take a decade or more due to regulatory hurdles, permitting delays, and political resistance. This creates a very real risk. The country that can generate the most reliable, scalable energy will have a structural advantage in AI, manufacturing, and economic growth. Energy is becoming the limiting factor. And whenever something becomes a bottleneck, investment opportunities emerge. We are entering a period where trillions of dollars will be spent on power generation, grid modernization, nuclear energy, solar, battery storage, geothermal, and technologies that most people have never even heard of. Some of the biggest fortunes of the next decade will likely be tied directly or indirectly to solving this energy constraint. In today's episode, we explore alternative energy sources, the challenges we face, and the technologies that may power the future. Because understanding energy is no longer optional if you want to understand where the world is going. And as investors, those who see these shifts early have the opportunity to position themselves ahead of the crowd. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D0Lpmq0SAvo Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/548-ai-is-about-to-trigger-an-energy-crisis-most/id718416620?i=1000752299883 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5l4674hFIJPWkz0spMq4YL Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffery, the Wealth Formula podcast. And today, before we begin, I wanna remind you as always, there is a website associated with this podcast, wealthformula.com. That’s where you want to go. If you have, uh, an interest in uh, ing more in the community in particular, there is a, a credit investor club. AKA investor club, which you need to sign up for. Uh, go to wealthformula.com and see some private deal flow at, uh, no cost to you, uh, that, uh, you might have an interest in. Uh, let’s talk about today’s show. It’s a little bit about, uh, something. You know, that is, uh, on I think, a, a major issue, uh, going into the next decade. Um, you know, there’s one truth that’s followed. Every major technological revolution in human history. Energy demand is always rise, uh, to meet technological capability. You know, when we industrialize, uh, coal consumption exploded, obviously when we built modern transportation system oil. Demand, uh, reshaped global geopolitics. And when he entered the digital age, electricity became the backbone of the global economy, and now we’re entering the era of artificial intelligence. Now, what most people don’t appreciate is that AI is not just a software revolution, it’s an electricity revolution. Uh, training a single advanced AI model can consume as much electricity as literally tens of thousands of homes in an entire year. And once trained, these models continue to run inside data centers filled with specialized hardware operating 24 hours a day. A single large AI data center can require what’s called a entire one gigawatt of power. Now, what’s a gigawatt? Well, to put this all into perspective, that’s enough electricity to power. Roughly 700,000 homes, one building consuming the equivalent of a major city. Now, consider that companies like Microsoft, Google Meta, Amazon, they’re applying to build dozens of these facilities, and suddenly you begin to see the scale of what’s happening. Uh, even individual AI queries when you do them, they consume a lot more power than traditional computing tasks. Um, there’s an estimate that suggests that an AI query. Can use roughly 10 times the electricity of a traditional, uh, search query. The difference seems trivial until you multiply that by like billions of these interactions per day. And that is why for the first time in decades, electricity demand in the United States is accelerating again and doing so quickly. Now you might ask, well, you know, what’s been happening for the last 20 years? Well, electricity demand was actually relatively. Flat. And a lot of that is because of efficiency gains, offsetting economic growth, but ai, electrification of transportation, domestic manufacturing, they’re all gonna reverse that trend. And, and here’s where the story becomes even more interesting, because we know that China already understands this. China’s building power infrastructure at a pace that’s difficult to really even comprehend. They’re adding entire national skill, power, capacity every few years. In 2023 alone, China added more new coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined. And at the same time, they’re installing solar, wind, all these things at record rates becoming really the global leader in re renewable deployment. So you don’t think of China is that way, but they are. They’re not choosing one energy source. They’re choosing all of them. And because they understand that energy availability will determine technological leadership. Meanwhile, in the US things are kind of slower. Building a, a new power plant and transmissions infrastructure can take a decade or more. We got lots of regulatory hurdles and permitting delays in political resistance that the Chinese don’t have, and that creates a lot of risk. The country that can generate the most reliable, scalable energy, we’ll have a structural advantage in AI manufacturing and economic growth. And that is a big, big deal because energy at the end of the day is becoming. The limiting factor for growth, and whenever something becomes a bottleneck, you also get investment opportunities that emerge. So we’re entering a period where trillions of dollars will be spent on power generation, grid modernization, nuclear energy, solar battery, geothermal, you name it. And a lot of those things you’ve never heard of. Some of the biggest fortunes of the next decades will be tied directly or indirectly to solving these energy constraints. That is why in today’s episodes we’re gonna explore these alternative energy sources, kind of get an idea of what’s going on with them. I know it doesn’t sound super exciting or sexy, but understanding energy right now is, is not optional. If you wanna understand where the world is going, and as investors, those who see these shifts early are gonna have an opportunity to position themselves ahead of the crowd, and we’re gonna have. A conversation to highlight all of that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbocharge your investments. Visit wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the short rewind, uh, energy demand is, uh, rising, not just from ai but from electrification. Population growth, economic activity itself. At the same time, we’re trying to transition how energy’s produced, which creates, uh, real trade-offs around cost, reliability, and scale. Today’s conversation isn’t about, uh, ideology necessarily, but it’s about the economics of energy and what’s realistic as demand continues to grow. And to help us think this through. I’m joined by Dr. Ga Hockman, professor of Environmental and Resource Economics, with the PhD from Columbia University Gall. Welcome to the show. Good morning. So let’s just start very basic here. In your view, why does economic growth almost always translate into higher energy demand? Because production is very dependent on energy. And so whenever you wanna expand production, you wanna expand food, you need more energy. And this is actually what we’re trying to decouple, to create production processes that are less energy intensive. So as we grow, as we become happier, more viable, we don’t necessarily need more energy. So, uh, setting, uh, ai, artificial intelligence aside for a second, are we already in a path where electricity demand has to rise, you know, meaningfully over the next decade? I mean, what, what kind of projections do we look at there? We need to decouple growth from energy. We didn’t do that yet. As long as we don’t do it. Uh, growth will be associated with an increase in energy demand, not as much as AI has been introducing. And that is, uh, uh, uh, jumping to a higher step. Right. Now, you’ve mentioned this a couple times in the decoupling idea how in the big picture, like how do you do that? Uh, does the low hanging fruit that the US implemented from the 1980s, 1990s, and that is energy efficiency. It, which creates a win-win. Uh, it just changed the light bulbs in your, in your house. You save electricity, but you also save money ’cause these bulbs last much longer. Assuming their cost is not high enough. Is not too high. Uh, industry is the same thing. Introducing more efficient processes. Can result endless need for energy, but we need to go a step further to make it more meaningful and to introduce production processes that simply depend less on energy or depend less on energy that is polluting. Give us another example. I mean, the light bulb is an easy one, but, um, I mean, what are some large scale ideas for that energy efficiency issue? That you’ll think about when you think about these kind of decoupling ideas. Uh, another thing, just, uh, the appliances at home, uh, you want them to, uh, be more energy efficient and the windows you put on your houses, you want it to be double blast, maybe even triple in some cases that blocks the sun and helps I, uh, isolate the house better so you don’t need to heat it as much. Insulation is very important. Uh, very similar things exist in the commercial sector. Uh, if you look at the big retail stores, they’re using a lot of light bulbs. They’re using a lot of insulation to reduce their, uh, heating costs. If they are wanting to become more energy efficient. So these are not very complicated things that can really make a change in residential, in commercial. And you can then expand it further into production process in the manufacturing. And there are different examples also there. There’s also this big driver of energy in the next couple of decades, uh, which, you know, people talk about how many more terabytes we’re gonna need just to support the artificial intelligence revolution. Do you think it’s realistic, you know, just to focus on these efficient levels? Is that enough for, for how much energy we need? No, no. And we need to expand the energy. Uh, it’s important to expand it in ways that is cleaner energy, so it does not create harm. So you don’t create a good with a bad, uh, you wanna introduce energy that is cleaner so you don’t increase, uh, pollution. Uh, impact greenhouse gases. Um, so it is also the fuel mix that you’re using. The fuel sources. Will you use solar? Will you use hydro? Will you use, uh, wind, uh, bio bioenergy, same thing. Bioenergy crops. So you wanna exp expand, you wanna. Introduce a more diverse set of feedstocks that many of them are much more, uh, cleaner than the existing one. Uh, so the movement to renewable is important. Uh, and again, you don’t need to decrease the existing infrastructure, but the new infrastructure at least needs to come from a cleaner sources. You need to improve our use of batteries. Yeah. Let, let’s break down some of the things that you’ve talked about. So, solar, okay. Um, what did, what does solar do well and where does it struggle? Solar, people forget, in 2005 it was $10. Now it’s below $1. So we need to understand that there is a transition in the transition. Many times costly, but we need to learn and bring it down that. Learning came in terms of installation. The installation became much more efficient, uh, much less costly, much faster, and that brought the price of solar down. Uh, solar has been performing very well in many places. Uh, eh, solar today is cheaper than many of the most polluting, uh, infrastructure for power in the world. If I remember correctly, the number, it’s around 500 gigawatts, which is a big number. Uh, they can, that solar can outcompete the existing, uh, energy sources. Uh, where it’s struggling is that, um. Silicon will be is is in high demand and that is a creating a floor that prevents solar from going even lower, but it can also create a constraint in the future as you expand it further. Can you explain for, for us just the silicon issue? ’cause is that. So it’s just a, a silicon is a major component and we don’t have enough, is that what you’re saying? Yes. Yes, exactly. And then doesn’t that drive up the price of silicon? Yes, but we, we didn’t hit that. We, we we’re, we’re, uh, but there are actually various entities working on alternatives. From MIT to companies, uh, that are offering interesting solutions. Yes. You mentioned storage as well. Um, energy storage. Um, how close are we to storage being really viable at scale? I mean, this is, um, you know, we certainly, battery technology has improved, but, you know, how, how, how close are we to it? Becoming something that is, is really, really helping the issues. Uh, it’s challenging ’cause right now it makes it more expensive. But if the more we use it, the more we learn, the more we understand, the more, uh, efficient and cost efficient we can introduce it. Cost will go down. So it’s like the, how do you push it forward? How do you adopt these technologies? Now, we should always remember that there are, in some places, it is already very viable. But it demands certain, uh, uh, circumstances. For example, uh, the Southwest has a location where it has, uh, underground water and solar. The solar heats the underground water. So the underground water becomes the storage that, uh, then the steam becomes the electricity in the night. And that is a very viable process. Hydro with wind goes also very well, and again, uh, they manage to store, uh, use the wind to bring water upstream, and then when there’s no wind, the water flows downstream and through hydro creates electricity. Batteries, it’s technology. Uh, will a breakthrough come one day? I believe so, but again, I, I can’t predict it. Um, we can talk about, um, you know, natural gas, right? I mean, natural gas doesn’t get much attention, uh, in the transition narrative, but how important is it today in maintaining grid stability in supporting renewables? Reliability is more important than prices to many of us. No one likes blackout and if you talk with the, those that monitor and and manage the electricity markets, that’s their top priority, not the price. Uh, we don’t like it when we don’t have electricity. We we’re very dependent on it. So reliability is definitely be, uh, uh, uh, a must before you even move towards renewables. Absolutely. Before prices even, uh, uh, for anyone in the us. Um, so NA Gas has the potential, uh, it has less. CO2. The problem with NA gas is that the infrastructure is leaking. That means that the pipeline are emitting and methane because of leaks. Uh, I believe that needs to be addressed. Uh, uh, natural gas has the potential to be used, but. You need to not use it with an infrastructure that is, uh, resulting in more damage than good. It kind of defeats the purpose of it. What would do you look at natural gas as a short term bridge or something that, you know, the, the system may rely on, you know, in, in a much longer, uh, timeframe, even with other renewables. I would be careful in creating a bridge because that this infrastructure is very expensive. Once you put the amount of money needed to create infrastructure, it’s very hard to change it. Having said that, you will have solutions that will use fossil fuels, which includes natural gas, even in the long run, simply because the cost and the benefits will add up in a way that. It won’t make any sense moving away from fossils. In my opinion, not everyone will agree with me. Yeah, but, and, and you do have technologies that can make fossil fuels much, much cleaner. Like carbon capture used in storage. Uh, that technology has a huge potential. You can recycle the hydrogen and recycle other components in the refinery process that results in a cleaner fuel. But it’s something that we need to incentivize the companies to do. Uh, a company will not do it independently ’cause it’s more costly and that’s important. How about nuclear? I mean, nuclear. Offers reliable carbon free, you know, power. Yet it hasn’t scaled the way many people expected. Um. Why is that people are afraid of nuclear. Look at the three Mile Island and, and look at Fukushima and Chernobyl for that matter. People remember those stories and that really resonates with them badly. And there’s also a problem in the accounting of nuclear. Even the most safest countries in the world like Japan will everyone considered super safe. Even they have an accounting problem. So there is the concern that. Even small amounts get leaked out to the wrong hands. That can be a very bad outcome. Eh? Having said that, there is, I don’t know. I don’t follow it too much, but I do know there is a drive to create small nuclear plants, mobile plants, eh, from my recollection for two, three years ago, the company that I heard of was very successful at that. Eh, Japan went back to nuclear different than Germany. By the way. Germany did not try to, uh, divest from nuclear. So there are some places that nuclear becomes very important. I think it’s also becomes important in some areas that work in ai. So it has been introduced as a source of electricity. Can you tell us a little bit about small modular reactors? There’s a lot of buzz about that. What, what exactly are they? I mean, how small are they? You know, safety wise, uh, they’re mobile, they’re not very big. And, uh, that makes them, uh, much more easier to manage and control as opposed to the very big nuclear plans. Nuclear is a base load. So you use it, you, once you turn it on, you don’t want to turn it off. It’s too expensive. The on and off, it takes it a long time to, to uh, ramp up. Uh, and, uh, mobile, uh, nuclear plants are addressing many of these concerns that exist with the big plants. So they are solving it in, in what I saw pretty well in some circumstances. How small are they? I mean, are they, so would you. Would a, you know, one of these AI data centers, or what would they just, would they have one small modular react or they’ll need more than that? They’ll need more than that. Oh, they need more, more than one. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So they’re, they’re pretty small or they like, you know, the size of a car or they. How, how small are these things? No, they’re bigger than the car, but they’re not too big. If you know of a nuclear plant, the old one, you see these big round, uh, domes, uh, they’re, they’re not that big. They’re, they’re much smaller, but they’re not as small as a car. Yeah. And so you could run maybe, uh, a, an AI center with a couple of those or something like that. Is that the idea? They have, you can see some of them. There are examples in Texas where you have the, the center basically is surrounded by small units. Are they generally safer to use, and if so, why is that? Uh, I’m not a nuclear guy. I’m not a physic. I should be careful in it, but I, I, what I understood, they’re safer to use. Also, the material i, i I is not reaching, uh, levels that safer levels than you would need for, for example, for bumps and, and stuff like that. So they’re keeping everything at a safer level. When you step back and look at the whole system and think about. What’s gonna happen in the future? Do you think it’s more likely to be dominated by one energy source or like a diversified mix as we’ve been going through? I believe a diversified mix. I also believe that in some places you will always have fossil fuels. In some places you’ll have a very quick transition to renewables. Uh. Uh, we need to look at the system view. In some places it’s easier to clean the dirty fuel. In some places it’s just easier to introduce the, the clean fuel. Uh, some places I do believe you see, for example, developing world does not have the capacity to electrify. We talk about electrification and some people are very enthusiastic about it. You don’t see it in the development world. They don’t, they lack even the US And there is a study in Princeton that came, I think three years ago. Um, if you electrify the whole US today, you need to almost triple the grid capacity. Just understand what the magnitude of money that needs to be invested to get there. Is huge. Now developing countries definitely don’t have it. Even the US doesn’t have that capacity. So, uh, developing countries, I think you might see a lot more biofuels, a lot more, uh, other, uh, substitutes that exist that are easier for them to manage. And then a system view or a more complete view is needed ’cause it’s not. What is the most efficient process? Is what process fits best in a certain area, and, and that will create a lot of heterogeneity, I think. Do you have a sense in the us I mean, what, what do you think ends up being? There’s gotta probably be one, you know, dominant source that it will, will kind of come to friction based on our own. Economics in our own situation. Do you think that’s in the, in the near future? Is that solar, you think? I mean, what, what dominates in the future here? I don’t think you’ll dominate, even in the us you won’t dominate, uh uh. You have regions in the US that are very, uh, windy. Wind farms will be the optimal path. There are places that don’t have any clouds, 350 days a YA year. So solar is perfect there. Solar also creates employment and live view for certain communities so that the employment component is an important part. So you create. Income and, and, and, uh, in, in, in life, in, in economic variability in regions with the renewables, there are other regions that have, uh, a lot of supply of, uh, excess biomass or the capacity to produce a lot of biomass, and that creates them an alternative to use biomass ’cause that’s what brings them. Again, income, which is always important, but it also brings them a feedstock that might be of a, a lot of benefits. Um, and you will have regions that are heavily so heavily invested in fossils that it will never make sense to move away from fossils, but it will make sense to create cleaner fossils through carbon capture and storage in other ways. So I don’t think the US will move into one place or another. Yeah. Um, you know, you often hear discussions about, in the US about, um, our grid being outdated. Tell us sort of at, at a high level, if you wouldn’t mind explaining the issues with the grid and, you know, what, what kind of issues that brings up as we need more energy sources. Just look at the power plants. They were, look at their ages, the age of power plants. Look at and, and then there are a few that were supposed to be retired and now have been extended, but just. That by itself is sufficient to create problems whenever you encounter a natural, uh, extreme event that, uh, stresses the system. Uh, we saw with Sandy in the northeast. The northeast was, a lot of the infrastructure was outdated. Sandy came, the system collapsed. They fixed it now, so they upgraded it. There is, uh, uh. Some of the utility. Again, I’m not, I’m following anecdotal evidence and news, not beyond that, but some of the companies are striving to improve their grid and they are trying to, uh, introduce a more sustainable and reliable system again, ’cause reliability is so important. What does, what does it mean really to even update the grid? I mean, just for people who are not in this space, what does that even mean to upgrade it? You, you, you change the equipment, you upgrade the equipment, you better manage the inter, uh, interaction of trees and, and, and the electricity lines. Uh, you bring electricity lines underground. You also improve a lot of the infrastructure, uh, of the power plants and how they distribute the energy. So this whole infrastructure is being upgraded so it can support. For example, the ai. And that actually is something that the AI might bring as a very positive thing. So it will force the system to, uh, upgrade, to introduce more efficient processes, uh, distribution mechanisms that are more resilient, which I think is important. I hear we’re kind of behind when it comes to this, when you compare it to China. Can you talk a little bit about that? China has a different structure of, or economic structure. So a lot of the, uh, driver, the driver in China is the government and money that the government allocates to these alternative technologies, and that creates a very strong drive for renewables. Eh, China is also a big driver in coal in China, so. It’s basically where the government decides to put the money, and that’s where you see the industry flourish. If you look at the numbers, the investment numbers, China outpaces any country in the world in terms of the value invested per year in the recent years, and, and they’re producing a lot more, a lot more energy than us too. Isn’t that correct? I mean, I, I’ve just been, just in terms of following the AI news, I keep hearing about it. China has no. So many more terabytes than us, uh, of energy, uh, ability. Is is that true? Uh, that I don’t know. I don’t know exactly ’cause, uh, I know they’re producing a lot. I know they are expanding a lot, and I know that in the solar space, for example, they dominate because of that. They’re already, they’re also starting to dominate in the electric vehicle space. Uh, they’re becoming to leaders in those areas. Yes. Um, big picture, I think if you wanted to sort of sum up some of the, you know, major issues that you think that, you know, people like us who are. Investors or you know, just people wanna know what’s happening in the future. Like what, what’s, what’s the message for, for people? I would, I would try to make my house more efficient. I would try to, uh, and it’s important to understand this is not only about, it is about greenhouse gases, but it’s also about if your house is more efficient, you are also paying less money. And that has a lot of benefits to it. Similar logic can follow to the industries and how they work, how, and, and conserving energy is not necessarily coming at the cost of being more or less productive. That’s what we need to understand. You can conserve energy and still produce more. You can become more efficient and you can still, and you can reduce your dependencies on, uh, energy, which I think is important. Dr. Ga Hoffman, thank you so much for being on Wealth Formula Podcast today. Thank you for inviting me. You make a lot of money but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. A good news. If you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put off by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your. And money from creditors and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. And, uh, yeah, again, you know, the goal of this show is really to give you, you know, a, a macro look at what’s going on in the world and one of the things that is. Clearly an issue for the United States is energy production. And so, um, you know, stay on top of this stuff. This is, you know, this is where the puck is headed, right? Um, ai, all these things that are, are really, uh, driving the next decade of growth. Really depend on it. Anyway, that is it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is Buck Joffrey signing off. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Sixth lecture of Principles of Economics explores capital as saved resources that lengthen production to raise productivity, showing how time preference governs saving and interest, why capital is costly and fragile (depreciation, risk, destruction), and how capital accumulation drives higher living standards.Get all course notes and slides on saifedean.com/poecourse

Summary While the Great Hunger in Ireland remains one of the most documented tragedies of the nineteenth century, the story of what happened across the Irish Sea in the Scottish Highlands is often overlooked or romanticised. In this episode, we strip away the Hollywood imagery of baronial halls and tartan myths to look at the real experience of the Highland Potato Famine of 1846. We explore the “Geographic Trap” of the Highland Boundary Fault, the Coastal Squeeze of the Clearances, and the legal engineering of the 1845 Poor Law that left the starving with no right to relief. Using the latest research from Sir Tom Devine and Michael Lynch, we investigate the Empathy Gap between the absentee Landlords and the crofters clinging to the soil in the Western Isles. As the “Year of Railway Mania” gripped the England and the Lowlands of Scotland, a biological rot was creeping north. This is a story of how a system that prioritised economic efficiency over human survival turned a bad harvest into a national catastrophe. Listen & Follow Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/APPLEAgeofVictoriaPodcast Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SPOTIFYAgeofVictoriaPodcast Website: http://www.ageofvictoriapodcast.com/ Support the Show The Age of Victoria podcast is 100% independent and listener-supported. To help us add more books to the research library and keep the show free for everyone, please consider becoming a patron. Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=19744898&fan_landing=true In this episode, we discuss: The Geographic Trap: How the verticality and isolation of the Highlands created a “Social Silence.” The Lumper Dependency: Why the potato became the biological linchpin of the Highland economy. The Vanishing Middle: The removal of the Tacksman and the death of paternalistic kinship. The Empathy Gap: The psychological distance between the “Managerial Class” and the poor. The 1845 Poor Law: How the Scottish legal system was engineered to exclude the able-bodied from help. The Arrival of the Rot: The “sickly sweet” smell of 1846 and the biological collapse of the North. Main Sources Core Historical Texts Devine, T. M. To the Ends of the Earth: Scotland’s Global Diaspora, 1750-2010. Allen Lane, 2011. Lynch, Michael. Scotland: A New History. Century, 1991. Lynch, Michael (Ed). The Oxford Companion to Scottish History. Oxford University Press. Gray, Malcolm. ‘The Highland Potato Famine of the 1840's', The Economic History Review, Vol. 7, No. 3 (1955). Crisis, Ideology, and Class Dynamics Gray, Peter. ‘National Humiliation and the Great Hunger: Fast and Famine in 1847', Irish Historical Studies, Vol. 32, No. 126 (2000). Howell, David W. ‘The Land Question in nineteenth-century Wales, Ireland and Scotland', The Agricultural History Review, Vol. 61, No. 1 (2013). Porter, James. ‘The Folklore of Northern Scotland: Five Discourses on Cultural Representation', Folklore, Vol. 109 (1998). Stroh, Silke. ‘Racist Reversals: Appropriating Racial Typology in Late Nineteenth-Century Pro-Gaelic Discourse', Gaelic Scotland in the Colonial Imagination (2017). The Psychology of Wealth and the “Empathy Gap” Loewenstein, George. ‘Hot-cold empathy gaps and self-control', Challenges to Happiness: Perspective from Economics and Psychology (2005). Miller, Lisa. ‘The Money-Empathy Gap', New York Magazine (July 2012). Primary Sources & Institutional Records Hansard Parliamentary Debates. HC Deb 01 February 1847 vol 89 cc603-12. ‘Distress in Scotland'. The Scotsman. ‘Editorial on the Highland Famine', 14 November 1846. Museum of Scottish Railways. A Short History of Britain’s Railways. Knox. Social Structure and Land Tenure in Scotland, 1840-1940. The post EP067 HIGHLANDS & HARDSHIP appeared first on AGE OF VICTORIA PODCAST.

In this episode, John Ortberg offers what he calls “two cheers for guilt and shame.” Drawing from the book of Judges, John explores why justice matters, why moral reality is woven into the fabric of existence, and why a world without any sense of guilt or shame would not be more humane — it would be more dangerous.From the brutal story of Adoni-Bezek to the violent cycles of Judges, we see a profound truth emerge: no one ultimately gets away with injustice. As Jesus says in Luke 8:17, nothing hidden will remain hidden.John traces a major turning point in human history — what C.S. Lewis called the moral law — the moment when ancient Israel connected two ideas that had often been separated:There is one God.And that God is good.Justice is real. Accountability is real. And judgment, properly understood, is good news — especially for the oppressed.But here's the deeper turn:- Guilt and shame can either crush us… or redeem us.- Healthy guilt points out where we have done wrong so we can confess and be cleansed. Healthy shame invites us out of hiding into relationship and grace.- And ultimately, Jesus steps into the story and absorbs the consequences we could not.- “The wages of sin is death.”The sin is ours.The death is his.- The cycle of Judges is broken at the cross.Justice is upheld. Mercy is given.And condemnation does not win.

Every year, there is a new “crisis” in solar.And yet… the industry keeps growing.With leadership transition underway at the Solar Energy Industries Association, Darren Van't Hof steps in as Interim President and CEO at a pivotal moment. Policy uncertainty. Permitting bottlenecks. Election year noise. And a projected $25 billion flowing into storage in 2026 alone.So where do we really stand?In this candid conversation recorded live at Intersolar & Energy Storage N.A., Darren shares why solar has already won the cost battle, why storage may be the most durable growth sector in energy, and what must happen politically for the industry to keep accelerating. There are some additional fun bits about the future of SEIA and his role in there as well. ;-)Expect to learn:

Introverts are underrated. So says Susan Cain in her conversation with EconTalk's Russ Roberts about her book, Quiet. She explains why introversion isn't the same thing as shyness and she speaks of the many benefits of solitude and silent contemplation. They also discuss why modern schools and workplaces' obsession with extroversion is problematic, and the reasons for the shift from a culture of character to our current culture of personality. Cain concludes by sharing how the book has changed her own life and helped other introverts navigate a world that can't seem to stop talking.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and U.S. Head of Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss the implications of private credit's exposure to the software industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Head of Credit Strategy. Vishy Tirupattur: While potential disruption from AI has been a key driver for markets [in the] last few weeks, the focus of investor agenda has been in the software sector. On today's podcast, we will talk about software in the credit markets and its implications. It's Monday, March 2nd at 10am in New York. Vishwas, let's start by understanding how the exposure in software manifests in the credit markets. How does it compare to software, say, in the equity market? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so the software exposure in credit markets is large, and understandably that's why investors are closely watching what's happening with software in the equity market. But what's interesting and important for investors to note is the exposure in credit is very different from what it is in equities. So, for instance, a good chunk of exposure in the credit market is around private issuers. So, we estimate about 80 percent of companies are private in the whole sample set that we looked at. And that's largely a function of the fact that software is not a big part of the more liquid spaces like Investment Grade and High Yield. But it is heavily represented in the more opaque parts of the market, like leveraged loans, CLOs, and, you know, BDCs. So, our analysis found that about 25 percent of BDC portfolios are in software, closely followed by private credit CLOs. And leveraged loan market was about 16 percent. So, that's an important distinction to keep in mind versus the equity market. The second thing I would flag is – because the software sector grew a lot in the loan market through the LBO wave of 2020 and 2021, it has a weaker credit quality skew to it than the overall market. So about 50 percent of borrowers in the sector are rated B - or lower. So, that's the lowest rungs of the rating spectrum. Many of these software deals were underwritten with higher leverage than the broad market. And as a result of that you also have more front-loaded maturities in the sector, which brings the risks of refinancing, if some of this disruption persists. But Vishy, that's a nice segue to you. Over the past couple of years, you looked at the private credit market in depth and that's where I think the exposure we found is the highest in BDCs, you know, which is the public face of private credit. So, in your assessment, what is the risk of software to private credit, given all of the headlines that are popping up? Vishy Tirupattur: Public face of private credit – Vishwas, that's a great line. BDCs – business development corporations for those who are not familiar – are companies that invest in the debt of small and medium sized companies, sourced through non-bank channels. BDCs fund themselves through equity and debt issuance. So, if you look at the portfolios of BDCs to look at their exposure to software, there's a wide variation across the various BDC portfolios. What makes the assessment of these software risks in BDCs challenging is that many of these companies are private companies without the reporting obligations of public companies. So, no earnings reports, no 10-Ks or cues or broadly publicly available financials look at. So, in effect, these companies need to be re underwritten to evaluate which of these companies would be disrupted from AI; and which companies could actually benefit from AI and see their margins expand. So, in the context of BDCs, liability spreads are something we are watching closely. BDC liability spreads have widened but we think more needs to happen there. The clearing levels need to wait for the full resolution of the companies that benefit and that get hurt by disruption that is still awaited. So, we expect credit spreads of BDCs to remain volatile for some time to come. Vishwas Patkar: Okay. So, seems like this is a significant, or at least a non-trivial risk factor for credit markets, given the growth of the sector, leverage, the skew and quality. But Vishy, do you think this could be systemic for risk markets at large? Vishy Tirupattur: So, I do think that this is a significant risk, but I don't think it's a systemic risk. The amount of leverage in BDC is fairly small. About 2x is the kind of leverage. You compare that to the kind of leverage that existed in the financial system before the financial crisis – that's orders of magnitude smaller risk. And also the linkage to the banking system comes through the back leverage provided to the non-bank lenders. But this leverage is substantially risk remote with very high subordination levels. So, my conclusion here is this is a significant risk but not a systemic risk. So let me turn the same question to you, Vishwas. Taking on a sort of historical perspective as well as a macro perspective, how do you see this risk manifesting in the broader credit space? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I would agree with you Vishy, that we need to see a valuation reset. We think spreads should go wider because of disruption concerns, even if they affect a relatively narrow part of the market. But a lot of that's happening against issuance that's rising. But I would say the risk of systemic concerns really emerging is relatively low. if you look at historical cycles where credit has been the weak link in the economy, those are typically characterized by a lot of corporate re-leveraging. So, think about the late 1990s or from 2004 to 2007 or the early 2000-teens. These are all cycles where corporates were being very aggressive, adding a lot of debt. And you know, when the economy slowed, credit became the source of some default and downgrade concerns. We haven't really seen that type of credit cycle play out at all in the past few years. If you look at corporate debt to GDP, for example, it's gone down each of the last five years. Balance sheet corporate leverage has been flat or actually gone lower in spots. M&A activity, which is usually a good indicator of corporate aggressiveness, still remains below trend. So, I think we have had a fairly restrained credit cycle where in place fundamentals are quite strong. And that's why I think the systemic contagion from any credit spread weakness, I think could be relatively muted. Vishy Tirupattur: So, the key takeaway from us is that software and credit is a significant risk but is not quite systemic risk. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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