Podcasts about Economics

Iranian Schoolgirls Killed After Hegseth Uses ChatGPT To Send Strike Trump's Iran Lies, Miller's surveillance grab, Democrats' 28-0 winning streak, and neo-Nazis at a GOP rally. What do we do if our national leader is guided and manipulated by adversarial foreign countries? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim explains what disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could mean for the global semiconductor supply chain and the immediate future of AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley's Asia Technology Team.Today: why the Strait of Hormuz closure may matter to the global technology industry.It's Friday, March 13th, at 8 pm in Taipei. AI and advanced chips may represent the cutting edge of technology, but they depend on something far more basic: that's energy. And a large share of that energy flows through one narrow shipping lane in the Middle East – the Strait of Hormuz. When energy supply chains are disrupted, the effects can quickly ripple into semiconductor manufacturing.Advanced semiconductor fabrication is, in fact, one of the most energy‑intensive industrial processes in the world. Take Taiwan, for example – home of the world's largest share of leading-edge chip production. Just one major manufacturer alone accounts for roughly 9–10 percent of the country's total electricity consumption. That scale of energy use means the stability of power supply is critical.Taiwan relies heavily on imported LNG to generate electricity. But storage levels are limited. It maintains roughly one and half weeks worth of LNG inventory, with several additional weeks supplied by vessels currently at sea. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly disrupted, that supply chain could come under pressure. The immediate impact might not necessarily be an outright shortage – but rising energy costs could still affect semiconductor production economics. And that's important because advanced chips are foundational to everything from cloud computing to artificial intelligence systems.Energy isn't the only potential bottleneck. Another lesser-known input in the semiconductor ecosystem is sulfur. More than 90 percent of the world's sulfur supply is produced as a by‑product of oil refining. That sulfur is then used to produce sulfuric acid, a key chemical that supports semiconductor materials, metal processing, and battery components.Disruptions in oil refining tied to shipping constraints or energy market shocks could also affect sulfur supply. In other words, a disruption in energy markets could trigger second‑order effects across multiple layers of the technological supply chain. And those effects extend beyond chips themselves. The downstream impact touches industries tied to electrification, data centers, and advanced electronics manufacturing.History also offers some lessons learned about how technology markets react when energy prices spike. During periods of major oil price surges – such as in 2008 and again in 2021 through 2022 – semiconductor equities experienced significant drawdowns. In both cases, semiconductor stocks declined by roughly 30 percent before reaching an inflection point. The mechanism is fairly intuitive. Higher oil prices raise costs across the economy and can weaken consumer spending. At the same time, companies building energy‑intensive infrastructure – like large‑scale AI data centers – may face higher operating costs and low revenues.So when energy markets move sharply, technology markets often move with them. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz wouldn't automatically halt chip production, but it could ripple through power costs, materials supply, and the economics of building AI infrastructure. And that highlights an important reality for investors: the future of technology isn't just written in code. It's powered by energy, by infrastructure, and the fragile global networks behind the digital economy.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Elections, favors, nuclear secrets, federal land- it's all for sale. Washington is in the grips of a cabal of billionaires, stealing us blind while drowning the average person in a flood of propaganda and distraction.Plus - Thom reads from 'The Meat Racket' by Christopher Leonard. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The slogan that promised efficiency was really a blueprint to dismantle public government and hand its power—and money—to the billionaire class…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Global financial giant UBS has downgraded U.S. stocks, as markets stumble into one of their worst starts in decades. Is this a routine reset or a warning shot? Where is capital moving now? Are emerging markets the real story? And with geopolitics heating up and the Fed in play, is this a short-term wobble or the start of a structural shift in global capital? Host Tu Yun joins Warwick Powell, Adjunct Professor, Queensland University of Technology, Australia, Li Lun, Assistant Professor of Economics, Peking University, and Chen Jiahe, the Chief Investment Officer of the Beijing-based Novem Arcae Technologies for a close look.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by Scott Horton to talk about people's changed feelings on Trump compared to his first term, potential boots on the ground in Iran, the connection to past terror wars, and more.Support Our Sponsors:The Wellness Company - Manage midlife with MARS from The Wellness Company! http://www.twc.health/problem & use code PROBLEM for 10% + Free Shipping on all orders for US residentsUltra - Don't sleep on Ultra Pouches. New customers get 15% Off with code PROBLEM at https://takeultra.com!VanMan - https://vanman.shop/DAVEMASA Chips - https://www.masachips.com/DAVEPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the impact of upcoming regulatory changes on U.S. mortgage rates and home sales.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: It is March and there's some madness going on. I'm Jay Bacow, here with Jim Egan, noted Wahoo Wa fan. James Egan: Hey, it looks like Virginia's going to be back in the tournament this year, hoping for a three seed, looking like a four seed. It's the first year that my son is really excited about it. So, hoping we can win a few games. Jay Bacow: Let's hope they don't lose the first game and make him cry like you did a few years ago. But … Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, with everything going on in the world, we thought it'd be prudent to discuss the U.S. mortgage and housing market. It's Thursday, March 12th at 10:30am in New York. James Egan: Jay, as you mentioned, there is a lot going on in markets right now, but hey, people need to live somewhere. And those somewheres remain pretty unaffordable. But this administration has been very focused on affordability, and we also have some updates on what is clearly the most exciting part of the housing and mortgage markets – regulation. What's going on there? Jay Bacow: Look, nothing gets me more excited than thinking about the regulatory outlook for the mortgage market. We've been focusing a lot on what's happening in D.C. with possible changes that could be helping out affordability, changes to the investor program, changes to the policy rate. But Michelle Bowman, who is the Vice Chair of Supervision, has been recently on the tape saying that we could get an update and a proposal for the Basel Endgame by the end of this month; and that proposal for the Basel Endgame is likely to make it easier for banks to hold loans on their balance sheet. It's going to give banks excess capital and the combination of these, along with some other changes that are going to be coming from the Fed, the FDIC and the OCC around: For instance, the GSIB surcharge that our banking analysts led by Manan Gosalia have spoken about – it's really going to help out the mortgage market in our view. James Egan: Alright, so freeing up capital, helping the mortgage market. When we think about the implications to affordability specifically, what do you think it means for mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Right. So, it's important that [when] we think about the mortgage rate, we realize where it's coming from. The mortgage rate starts off with the level of Treasury rates, and then you add upon that a spread. And the spread is dependent among a number of different factors. But one of the biggest ones is just the demand. And one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been so high over the previous four years was (a) Treasury rates were high, but also the spread was wide. And we think one of the biggest reasons why the spread was wide is that the domestic banks, who are the largest asset type investor in mortgages – they own $3 trillion of mortgages – basically weren't buying them over the past four years. And one of the reasons they weren't buying was they didn't have the regulatory clarity. And so, if the banks come back, that will cause that spread to tighten, which will likely cause the mortgage rate to come down. That is presumably, Jim, good about affordability, right? James Egan: Yes. And I want to clarify, or at least emphasize, that affordability itself has been improving. Over the course of the past four to five months at this point, we've been close to, if not at the lowest mortgage rate we've seen in three years. And when we think about what that has practically done to the monthly principal and interest payment on homes purchased today. Like that monthly payment on the median priced home is down $150 over the past year. That's about a 7 percent decrease. When we lay in incomes – or when we layer in incomes to get into that actual affordability equation, we're at our most affordable place since the second quarter of 2022. So yes, big picture, this is still a challenge to affordability environment. But it's not as challenged as it's been over the past three years. Jay Bacow: All right, so affordability improving. It's still challenged though. What does that mean for home prices then? James Egan: So, when we think about the home price implication of mortgage rates coming down; of mortgage rates coming down in an environment where incomes are going up – we're thinking about demand for shelter, purchase volumes and supply of that shelter. And demand really has not reacted to the improved affordability environment. That's not unusual. Normally takes about 12 months for affordability improvement to pull through in terms of increased transaction volumes. But we do think that the lock-in effect that we've talked about in detail on this podcast in the past, that is going to play a role here. Mortgage rates end of February finally hit a five handle, really, for the first time in three years. They're back above that now with the volatility in the interest rate markets. But from 4 percent to 6 percent, mortgage rates is effectively an air pocket. We don't think you're going to get a lot of unlocking at these levels. So we think that transaction volumes will pick up. We're calling for 3 to 4 percent growth in purchase volumes this year. But they've been largely flat for two to three years at this point. And more importantly, any improvement in affordability that comes from a decrease in mortgage rates is going to lead to commensurately more supply alongside that growth in demand – which is going to keep home prices, specifically, very range bound here. The pace of growth is slowed to about 1.3 to 1.5 percent right now. We've been here for four or five months. We think we're pretty much going to stay here. We we're calling for 2 percent growth, so a little bit acceleration. But we think you're in a very range bound home price market. Jay Bacow: All right, so home prices range bound, affordability improved. But still has a little bit of room to go. Some possible tailwinds from the deregulatory path that will make homes being a little bit more affordable. Fair amount going on. Jim, always a pleasure speaking to you James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button!

Substack's Christopher Armitage joins Thom- is there anything more powerful than action- or will the despair win out? Also- veteran war correspondent Phil Ittner joins Thom from Kiev, Ukraine.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If the road to Tehran required the sons and daughters of the billionaire & political class to march beside everyone else's kids, would we still be there?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Are we moving too fast in the world of agentic commerce — a new paradigm in online shopping where AI agents act on behalf of consumers, facilitating transactions and product discovery? Unlike traditional e-commerce, where consumers interact directly with platforms, agentic commerce leverages advanced technologies to streamline the purchasing process.In this episode of One Vision — FinTech Fuse, we dive deep into the rapidly shifting landscape of agentic commerce and the alphabet soup. With the technology landscape changing at an unprecedented pace, we explore the challenges and opportunities that arise in the new world.Joining us in the discussion are industry experts, Dr. Efi Pylarinou and Jas Shah, who offer their insights on the rise of different protocols like ACP and UCP, identity verification, and the importance of a level-playing field in the future of commerce.What's your take on this fast-paced evolution? Let's keep the conversation going!#FinTech #AI #AgenticCommerce #AIAgents00:00 Welcome and Setup: The Agentic Commerce Alphabet Soup02:53 The Reality: Are We Moving Too Fast?07:35 Who Writes The Rules? 10:03 Which Protocol Will Win?16:20 Staying Visible: Banks Brand in Bot Era21:04 Trust Data and Curation25:44 The Economics and Gatekeepers33:57 Predictions: Who Will Emerge as The Likely Winner41:56 What Banks Should Do NextHot take: The real battle is about protocols, not models.Hot take: The future belongs to those who can optimize for AI.Keywords AI, agentic AI, commerce protocols, fintech, banking, digital transformation, identity, trust, UCP, ACPMore about our guests 

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss the corporate media script regarding the war in Iran, Trump's response at a press conference when given pushback regarding claiming Iran used weapons on their own people, and more.Support Our Sponsors:CovePure - Head to http://www.covepure.com/problem and for a limited time, get $200 off your CovePure water purifierFast Growing Trees - Use code PROBLEM at http://www.fastgrowingtrees.com to save an additional 20% off your first order with Fast Growing Trees!Sheath - https://sheathunderwear.com use promo code PROBLEM20Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

John Cassidy, staff writer at The New Yorker and the author of Capitalism and Its Critics: A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI (Macmillan, 2025) talks about his recent story, "How to Prevent Insider Trading on Trump's Wars" and other recent takes on economics and politics.photo:  Karoline Leavitt at her first Press Conference in 2025 (YouTube channel called White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

When is good enough actually good enough? AI is reshaping how I work and live. And a member with a portfolio that's beaten an all-in-one Vanguard LifeStrategy fund for ten years asks whether the complexity is worth it — or whether it's time to simplify.SponsorsMasterworks - Invest in multimillion-dollar artwork offeringsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesThe Upswing: How We Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again by Robert Putnam—Simon &SchusterAn update on our model deprecation commitments for Claude Opus 3—AnthropicClaude's Corner—SubstackInvestments MentionedVanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund Investor (VASGX)Masterworks DisclosuresListeners get priority access to Masterworks at https://www.Masterworks.com/davidArt correlation and appreciation data based on repeat-sales index of historical Post-War & Contemporary Art market prices and S&P 500 annualized return (includes dividends reinvested) from 1995 to 2025, developed by Masterworks. There are significant limitations to comparative asset class data. Indices are unmanaged and a Masterworks investor cannot invest directly in an index. Content creator (the “Endorser”) receives cash compensation from Masterworks, LLC (“Masterworks”). Endorser is a client of Masterworks. Masterworks can only make and accept sales after an offering statement has been filed, and “qualified”, by the SEC. Any offers may be revoked before notice of qualification. Indications of interest involve no obligation. Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. For further disclosure on Regulation A Offerings, Risks of Investing, Performance Metrics, Art Market Data, and more visit the offering documents filed with the SEC and Important Disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From campaigning to destroy NATO to selling out Ukraine to letting Russia help kill American soldiers in the Gulf region, Trump's goal appears to be, to “Make America Russia”…See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As the Epstein investigations roll on, Iran is showing no inclination to settle for peace after the violent and underhanded American and Israeli attacks. Is there any kind of exit strategy, or is it possible Trump is actually hoping for a terrorist-style attack on US soil so he can declare a state of emergency?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

AI Is Changing The Economics of Software Development - Mike Cohn

Why do everyday people buy or trade crypto? And how do states regulate or even use it themselves? Host Al Lim speaks with Wesam Hassan and Antulio Rosales about the practices and politics of crypto in Turkey and Latin America. In places facing acute and overlapping crises, such as Argentina and Turkey, high inflation and currency instability have driven widespread crypto adoption as people seek ways to hedge against inflation, speculate, preserve savings, or move money outside traditional financial systems. States also experiment with crypto in their own ways, including using it in transactions involving commodities, such as Venezuelan oil, or in projects like El Salvador's Bitcoin Beach. From geopolitical dynamics in the wake of Nicolás Maduro's extraction to questions of religious permissibility amid everyday practices of luck, this episode explores the diverse ways and contradictions through which states and people engage crypto. Episode 2 Guests: Antulio Rosales is a political economy scholar and Assistant Professor in the Department of Social Science at York University in Toronto, Canada. His research centers around the political economy of development, natural resource extraction, and democracy in Latin America, with special interest in the expansion of cryptocurrencies and their impact on energy infrastructures, the environment and development. Antulio's current project is concerned with the political and social conditions that lead to expansions and restrictions of cryptocurrency markets in both the Global North and the Global South. His research has appeared in the Review of International Political Economy, Current History, Development and Change, New Political Economy, Energy Research and Social Science, Political Geography, among other journals. Wesam Hassan is an anthropologist and trained medical doctor whose research lies at the intersection of medical and economic anthropology. Currently, she is a Fellow in Anthropology at the London School of Economics and Political Science and a postdoctoral affiliate at the University of Oxford. She researches uncertainty, temporality, speculation, and risk in contexts of economic and health crises and technological affordances. Wesam completed her DPhil at the University of Oxford, with long-term ethnographic work on gambling, cryptocurrency trading, and moral economies in Turkey's urban centers amid economic collapse. Her earlier research at the American University in Cairo examined biomedical uncertainty and the governance of HIV-positive subjectivities in Egypt. Her scholarship, published in peer-reviewed journals, investigates how speculative infrastructures mediate survival strategies in precarious futures shaped by ecological, political, and economic crises. Her work has critically examined the moral and material economies of gambling, cryptocurrency and gambling, digital speculation, and healthcare infrastructures, tracing how risk, uncertainty, and future imaginaries are negotiated in contexts of socio-economic crisis. Before returning to academia, she worked for over a decade in public health and humanitarian aid with UN agencies and the third sector. Series Host: Al Lim is a PhD candidate in Anthropology and Environmental Studies at Yale University, where his research examines the social ecology of crypto in Thailand. He has published in Urban Geography, Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, and The Journal of the Siam Society, and holds an MSc from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a BA (summa cum laude) from Yale-NUS College. He also brings several years of professional experience in the crypto and AI sectors, including venture capital and ecosystem development.

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown. Then, John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district 01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi 07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency 08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets 09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday 10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants 12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years 13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements 13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days 14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States 15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain 16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real 16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists 17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel 18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired 19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public 20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown 21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0 22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed 23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran 24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do 25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with 26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting 26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia 28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster 28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut 29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win 30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations 31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran 32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war 33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump 42:30 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast 43:15 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th 45:45 Why create Local News Day? 46:45 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years 48:00 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community 49:00 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away 50:15 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer 52:15 People embrace their local identity 54:45 Origin story of the Montana Free Press 55:15 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons 57:30 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level 59:45 None of the outside money was disclosed 1:00:30 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session 1:02:30 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless 1:03:00 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit 1:04:45 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive 1:06:30 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones 1:08:00 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI 1:09:15 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI 1:11:00 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community 1:11:45 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it 1:14:00 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about 1:15:30 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed 1:17:45 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press 1:19:00 Importance of local “service journalism” 1:22:30 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast 1:23:15 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism 1:24:30 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know 1:25:15 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about 1:26:15 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect 1:28:00 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers 1:29:00 700 local newsrooms are taking part in Local News Day 1:30:00 Goal of Local News Day isn’t to raise money, it’s to spread awareness 1:33:00 Journalism has to reach enough people to really matter 1:35:00 Take action on April 9th to support local news 1:35:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns 1:40:00 #1 1959 gubernatorial 1:42:00 #2 1978 senate race 1:43:30 #3 1978 gubernatorial 1:45:00 #4 1999 gubernatorial 1:47:00 #5 2014 senate Republican primary 1:49:30 Honorable mentions 1:52:30 Ask Chuck 1:52:45 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey? 1:56:00 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress? 1:59:30 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage? 2:03:00 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table? 2:06:30 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interview Only w/ John Adams - Bringing Local News Back From The Brink John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th 03:15 Why create Local News Day? 04:15 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years 05:30 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community 06:30 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away 07:45 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer 09:45 People embrace their local identity 12:15 Origin story of the Montana Free Press 12:45 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons 15:00 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level 17:15 None of the outside money was disclosed 18:00 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session 20:00 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless 20:30 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit 22:15 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive 24:00 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones 25:30 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI 26:45 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI 28:30 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community 29:15 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it 31:30 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about 33:00 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed 35:15 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press 36:30 Importance of local “service journalism” 40:00 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast 40:45 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism 42:00 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know 42:45 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about 43:45 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect 45:30 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers 46:30 700 local newsrooms are taking part in Local News Day 47:30 Goal of Local News Day isn’t to raise money, it’s to spread awareness 50:30 Journalism has to reach enough people to really matterSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss updates on the war in Iran, the mainstream media's coverage of the war, and more.Support Our Sponsors:Prolon - https://prolonlife.com/potpCrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpBetter Help - https://Betterhelp.com/problem for 10% off your first monthNicNac - Go to http://nicnac.com/dave and use code DAVE for 20% off, or use the store locator to find Nic Nacs near youPart Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Skye and I start at 27 mins and Nyyera and I start at 1:00 Join us in Vegas for Podjam 3! Subscribe and Watch Interviews LIVE : On YOUTUBE.com/StandUpWithPete ON SubstackStandUpWithPete Stand Up is a daily podcast. I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. This show is Ad free and fully supported by listeners like you! Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 750 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous soul On YOUTUBE.com/StandUpWithPete ON SubstackStandUpWithPete Skye L. Perryman is a lawyer and the President and CEO of Democracy Forward, a non-partisan, national legal organization that promotes democracy and progress through litigation, regulatory engagement, policy education, and research. Over the course of Ms. Perryman's legal career, which has spanned nearly two decades, she has served in litigation roles at two global law firms, as a general counsel and chief legal officer, and in non-profit organizations. Ms. Perryman has represented clients across a broad range of industries, including in the healthcare, financial services, technology, education, consumer products, and non-profit sectors. Ms. Perryman's work has been recognized widely for its positive impact on people and communities. She has received numerous awards and recognitions for her commitment to public service and her professional work, including being named a Harry S. Truman Scholar (2002), a Baylor Line Foundation Outstanding Young Alumni (2018), a four-time Rising Star in Litigation in Washington, DC, one of the Most Influential People Shaping Policy in Washington, among other recognitions. Ms. Perryman is a frequent guest lecturer and keynote speaker on matters at the intersection of law and policy. Her legal briefs have been cited by the US Supreme Court as well as state supreme courts and her work is frequently covered in outlets such as The New York Times, National Public Radio, NBC News, The Washington Post, The Houston Chronicle, Teen Vogue, MSNBC, and CNN. As a founding member of the litigation team at Democracy Forward, Ms. Perryman developed and filed cases challenging unlawful activities pursued by the forty-fifth Presidential administration. All told, Democracy Forward brought more than 100 legal actions against the prior administration for abuses of power, stopping harmful policies and improving the lives of millions. Following the events of January 6, 2021, Democracy Forward expanded the scope and reach of its work to address anti-democratic activity across the nation, including countering the work of far-right legal organizations who are seeking to reverse our nation's progress. It has taken more than 700+ actions and works alongside more than 400+ clients and partners, filing cases across a range of issues, including those that advance reproductive health care, protect the freedom to read, defend civil rights, and preserve crucial checks and balances in our system of government. Under Ms. Perryman's leadership, Democracy Forward has emerged as a leader in unmasking Project 2025 - an effort backed by more than 100 far-right organizations to enable a future anti-democratic presidential administration to take swift action to roll back our rights and freedoms, and hurt the American people. Ms. Perryman grew up in Waco, Texas and is a proud product of K-12 public education. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Philosophy magna cum laude from Baylor University where she was elected to Phi Beta Kappa and a Juris Doctor with honors from the Georgetown University Law Center where she served as an Editor for the American Criminal Law Review and was an Editor in Chief for the ACLR's Annual Survey on White Collar Crime. Perryman serves on the board of the Interfaith Alliance, the Baylor Line Foundation, and the Atlas Performing Arts Center, among other non-profit charitable organizations. Nayyera Haq is a highly respected communications expert, trusted by global leaders and organizations to elevate their public presence. With a career spanning government, media, and the corporate world, Nayyera has prepared executives, policymakers, and thought leaders for speeches at the United Nations, global leadership conferences, and boardrooms of Fortune 500 companies. Her unique experience as a former White House Senior Director and current global affairs analyst for CNN and MSNBC enables her to offer unparalleled insights into leadership, messaging, and media strategy. Join us Thursday's at 8EST for our Weekly Happy Hour Hangout!  Pete on Blue Sky Pete on Threads Pete on Tik Tok Pete on YouTube  Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page Stand Up with Pete FB page All things Jon Carroll  Follow and Support Pete Coe Buy Ava's Art  Hire DJ Monzyk to build your website or help you with Marketing

Lord Nicholas Stern, author of the landmark Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, recently released his new book The Growth Story of the 21st Century: The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action. Along with Dr. Mattia Romani and other colleagues, he also published a paper in Nature last year on the role of AI in the climate transition. Join host David Sandalow as he talks with Stern and Romani about economic growth, climate change, AI and the energy transition. This material is distributed by TRG Advisory Services, LLC on behalf of the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in the U.S.. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could make stocks and bonds move in the same direction, challenging one of the key principles of portfolio diversification.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today: what happens if your main diversification strategy suddenly stops working because of oil price moves? It's Tuesday, March 10th, at 10am in New York. For decades, investors have relied on the idea that stocks and bonds return tend to move in opposite directions. When equities fall, bonds often rise, helping cushion portfolio losses. But that relationship isn't guaranteed. Between 2021 and 2023, coming out of the pandemic, stocks and bonds sold off together, and the traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio suffered its worst annual performance in nearly a century. Now, recent geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are raising a familiar concern for investors: Could that uncertainty dynamic return? At first glance, oil prices may seem like a narrow commodity story. But in reality, they can shape the entire macroeconomic environment. The classic negative correlation between stocks and bonds depends on a fairly simple economic pattern: growth and inflation moving in the same direction. When economic growth accelerates, inflation often rises as well. In that environment, equities may perform well while bonds weaken. But when growth and inflation move in opposite directions, the relationship between stocks and bonds can flip. That's what happened coming out of the pandemic. Bond investors worried about rising inflation, while equity investors were worried about slowing growth. In that scenario, both asset classes' returns declined at the same time.A sustained oil price shock could potentially recreate those conditions. Higher oil prices can push up inflation while also weighing on economic activity – a combination that economists often refer to as stagflation. If markets begin to price in that kind of environment again, the relationship between stocks and bonds could shift back toward that less favorable regime. Despite recent volatility tied to tensions in the Middle East, the relationship between stocks and bonds today still largely reflects the traditional pattern. Overall, stock-bond returns correlation remains negative, meaning bonds can still help diversify equity risk. In fact, correlations between U.S. stocks and 2-year Treasury returns have been trending negative since 2024, and on a longer-term basis they are now extremely negative relative to the past three years. But the key point here is that not all bonds behave the same way. Many investors think of government bonds as a single asset class. But the maturity of the bond – how long it takes to repay – matters a lot for diversification. Shorter-dated bonds, such as 2-year U.S. Treasuries, have maintained stronger negative correlations with equities. Longer-dated bonds, however – particularly the 30-year Treasury – have behaved a bit differently. Their correlation with stocks has been stickier and less negative, partly because markets increasingly view longer-dated bonds as risky. As a result, the difference between how 2-year and 30-year Treasuries move relative to stocks has remained unusually wide for several years. In recent days oil prices have been rising -- linked in part to concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. That's pushing up yields at the front end of the Treasury curve, creating what's known as a bear-flattening. In other words, short-term interest rates are rising faster than long-term ones, reflecting markets placing more emphasis on inflation risks. And that brings us to the key questions for investors: Which risks will dominate from here – is it going to be higher inflation or slower growth? The answer could determine which assets provide better diversifications in the months ahead. So the takeaway is this: Higher oil prices and geopolitical risks could increase the chances that stocks and bonds move together again. But diversification isn't disappearing. It's just becoming more nuanced. For investors, the real question isn't whether bonds diversify portfolios. It's which bonds do. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The Soviet-born associate of Rudy Giuliani was there for many of Trump's dealings with Putin- what does he think is going on behind the scenes? And- did talking to Putin make Trump back down on Iran?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Most Dangerous Weapon Ever Aimed at America Isn't a Missile...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What if humanity's capacity for cruelty was actually one of our greatest moral achievements? That's just one of the provocative ideas philosopher Hanno Sauer explores in this conversation about his book The Invention of Good and Evil with EconTalk's Russ Roberts. Sauer tackles a fundamental puzzle: in a Darwinian world of selfish genes, how did humans become so extraordinarily cooperative? Sauer traces a fascinating journey from small hunter-gatherer bands to modern civilizations, revealing surprising mechanisms along the way--including the systematic killing of the most aggressive tribe members over millennia, which made humans the "golden retrievers of the primate kingdom." The conversation ranges from whether agriculture was history's worst mistake, to a spirited debate about religion and morality between Sauer (a German atheist who doesn't know any believers) and host Russ Roberts (a person of faith living in Israel).

It's Fun Day Monday on The Majority Report   On today's program:   The U.S. struck oil facilities around Tehran, Iran, an attack that has triggered an environmental disaster. With massive fuel depots burning, rain mixed with soot and petroleum residue is now falling over the city, leaving a toxic, oily film across streets, buildings, and vehicles. After Donald Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that the term simply means whatever Trump says it means. Trump takes to Truth Social to claim to essentially claim victory in Iran in a quintessential confused post from the president. Professor Clara Mattei joins the program to discuss her new book Escape from Capitalism: An Intervention. Clara is a professor of Economics at the University of Tulsa and the founder of Forum for Real Economic Emancipation (FREE). For more from Mattei, check the FREE YouTube channel.   In the Fun Half:   Senator Lindsey Graham is on a Fox News morning show still drunk from celebrating a new war as he shouts for Trump to invade Cuba next.   Christian fundamentalist, Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) says we have a 'biblical responsibility' to Israel.   Jake Tapper tells Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) that if he votes against $50 billion in funds for operations in Iran than it will be cast as a vote against the troops.   Ben Shapiro's eyebrows are exploding.   Olivia Reingold reports on tweets that Mayor Mamdani's wife liked.   all that and more   To connect and organize with your local ICE rapid response team visit ICERRT.com The Congress switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. You can use this number to connect with either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives. Follow us on TikTok here: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase Check out today's sponsors: SHOPIFY: Go to FactorMeals.com/majority50off and use code MAJORITY50OFF to get 50% off pls Free Breakfast for 1 year. FAST GROWING TREES: Get 20% off your first purchase.  FastGrowingTrees.com/majority SUNSET LAKE:  Head on over to SunsetLakeCBD.com and use coupon code "Left Is Best" (all one word) for 20% off of your entire order. Follow the Majority Report crew on Twitter: @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattLech On Instagram: @MrBryanVokey Check out Matt's show, Left Reckoning, on YouTube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Check out Matt Binder's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/mattbinder Subscribe to Brandon's show The Discourse on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/ExpandTheDiscourse Check out Ava Raiza's music here! https://avaraiza.bandcamp.com

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why history, technicals and fundamentals suggest a clearer runway for U.S. stocks six months out, despite geopolitical concerns.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities. It's Monday, March 9th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten. In fact, back in September I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet – and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities. Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and crypto currencies. The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases which led to strong equity performance in January. At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30 percent, or more. Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we have seen in 20+ years. As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all. The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future? The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping lists ready. In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year. Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in Late February and early March. The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs. This time around, markets have been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated. Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit and that usually takes a bigger shock, like Liberation Day or war. That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October. The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago. This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support. Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle. Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade toward 6300 by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again. Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100? No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I am not going to try either. Instead, I am going to assume that in six months, things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine. Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz rather than a shortage of supply. That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be solved. Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call in our 2026 outlook. Secondarily, the US is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence. This should attract investor flows back to the US. And finally, tax incentives for capital spending and tax cuts for individuals in the [One] Big Beautiful Bill should provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term. On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more US dollar strength which is a headwind to global liquidity. Bottom line, oil and US dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down. While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market, the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7 percent downside in my opinion while crowded stocks could see double digit declines before a final low appears next month. Remember market lows happen faster than tops so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Trump is talking about putting American soldiers on the ground in Tehran. Could this war spiral out of control- even as far as a nuclear exchange- or just become an endless quagmire? Plus- are you aware that Republicans passed a law to reactivate the draft just a few months ago?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Dark Rise of America's Monsters...See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomIran, China and the PetrodollarTrump Allies Capture CNN$1.3 Trillion Climate Rule ScrappedAI taking 10,000 Hollywood Jobs a MonthWill Iran Cause a Recession?Read the article "Will Iran Cause a Recession?" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletProfstonge WeeklyWeekly articles on economics and freedom and a monthly investment Watch ListDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

Over the past few years, the car market has gone through some changes.It's getting more expensive to buy a vehicle. Prices for new cars are high and so are interest rates, leaving many buyers stretching payments over six or even seven years to keep monthly costs manageable. Used cars aren't as affordable as they used to be and insurance and repair costs are rising too. At the same time, the types of vehicles on the market are shifting. Electric vehicles are more common. So are SUVs.So, what does this all mean if you're thinking about buying a car?  MPR News host Angela Davis talks with her guests about the economics of buying a car in 2026 — what's driving prices, how financing is changing and what buyers should know before heading to the dealership.Guests:Chris Farrell is senior economics contributor for MPR News and Marketplace. Joseph Yoon is the consumer insights analyst for Edmunds, an online resource for researching and buying both used and new vehicles. 

Are we moving too fast in the world of agentic commerce — a new paradigm in online shopping where AI agents act on behalf of consumers, facilitating transactions and product discovery? Unlike traditional e-commerce, where consumers interact directly with platforms, agentic commerce leverages advanced technologies to streamline the purchasing process.In this episode of One Vision — FinTech Fuse, we dive deep into the rapidly shifting landscape of agentic commerce and the alphabet soup. With the technology landscape changing at an unprecedented pace, we explore the challenges and opportunities that arise in the new world.Joining us in the discussion are industry experts, Dr. Efi Pylarinou and Jas Shah, who offer their insights on the rise of different protocols like ACP and UCP, identity verification, and the importance of a level-playing field in the future of commerce.What's your take on this fast-paced evolution? Let's keep the conversation going!#FinTech #AI #AgenticCommerce #AIAgents00:00 Welcome and Setup: The Agentic Commerce Alphabet Soup02:53 The Reality: Are We Moving Too Fast?07:35 Who Writes The Rules? 10:03 Which Protocol Will Win?16:20 Staying Visible: Banks Brand in Bot Era21:04 Trust Data and Curation25:44 The Economics and Gatekeepers33:57 Predictions: Who Will Emerge as The Likely Winner41:56 What Banks Should Do NextHot take: The real battle is about protocols, not models.Hot take: The future belongs to those who can optimize for AI.Keywords AI, agentic AI, commerce protocols, fintech, banking, digital transformation, identity, trust, UCP, ACPMore about our guests

Oil prices have already shot up thanks to the US-Israeli war in Iran. But what is the economic fallout likely to be? Will interest rates rise? What about inflation? Could the cost of borrowing increase – and by how much? Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey discuss how the cost of living might be hit and the political implications of that. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/politicspod

How will the increasing price in petroleum products impact the rest of the global economy. And the latest jobs numbers came in, and they aren't good. It's Money Monday, and to discuss the most important economic stories is U of A's associate econ professor Evan Taylor.  

Thanks for tuning in to this Agornomic Monday Edition of RealAg Radio with your host Lyndsey Smith! On today’s show, Lyndsey is joined by: Brian Jenks of North Dakota State University on killing palmer amaranth; Jochum Wiersma of the University of Minnesota on growing wheat in hotter summers; Deanna McLennan of FMC AG Canada for... Read More

The sudden and serious military action in the Middle East is raising new questions about energy markets, trade flows, and input costs — all factors that can quickly ripple into agriculture. In this Frontlines episode recorded Monday, March 9, RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney speaks with Jacob Shapiro of the Bespoke Group to unpack the geopolitical implications... Read More

What are the economics of managing aphanomyces root rot in pulse crops? The answer can vary widely depending on disease pressure, field conditions, and crop history, but the disease can have significant implications for peas and lentils when conditions favour its development. In this episode of RealAgriculture’s Pulse School, Kevin Auch, director and past chair... Read More

What separates the salmon farms that thrived in Q4 from the ones still bleeding money and does it all come down to where they're located? This week, we break down the Q4 financial results from the publicly traded salmon companies, walking through EBIT per kilogram figures across the industry and unpacking why companies like Grieg and SalMar cleared 20 NOK/kg while others in Iceland and Scotland finished deep in the red. We also get into why Mowi's Norway division outperformed nearly everyone, yet the company still ranked third overall, a reminder that geography can make or break a balance sheet. Then, we sit down with Kaspar Coates and Nikolai Jensen, two Norwegian School of Economics graduates whose master's thesis is turning heads industry-wide, exploring how site-level factors like seawater temperature, sea lice pressure, and disease exposure directly tie to financial performance on the farm. For more aquaculture insights head to our Fish n' Bits blog.You can also check out Kasper and Nikolai's master thesis Investigating the relationship between site-specific biological characteristics and financial performance, in conventional open-net salmonid farming in Norway here.

Oil prices surge to almost $120bbl overnight before falling back to $108bbl. President Trump says he does not believe the market shock will be prolonged. The G7 reportedly considers a joint release of oil from strategic reserves while reports suggest that Saudi Aramco may offer oil on the spot market. The Nikkei and Kospi lead Asian equity losses while Europe and Wall Street look set for continued sell-off pressure. Iran has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali, as the country's Supreme Leader to defy President Trump selection wishes. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mikey Weinstein of The Military Religious Freedom Foundation condemns Hegseth's latest Pentagon Christian Worship Service with Pete's personal pastor. MRFF exposes that End-Times-Happy commanders are telling troops that the Iran War is part of God's Plan to bring Jesus back. Plus US Rep from Wisconsin, Mark Pocan weighs in on illegal actions by MAGA on the world stage.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Good News Alert! Kristi Noem Got Fired. Cricket the Dog Was Vindicated. The Department of Justice released an interview with a woman saying Trump sexually assaulted her as a minor. DOJ claims originally thought that it was duplicate deletion. Who believes that? Plus Monkey Time and The Big Chicken!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Forbes Media Chief Steve Forbes joins the show to talk Economics with Larry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Economists don't usually talk about “culture.” But Joel Mokyr argues that it's the engine of innovation — and the Nobel Prize committee agreed. Stephen Dubner sits down for a thousand-year conversation (including advice!) with the new Nobel laureate.   SOURCES: Joel Mokyr, economic historian at Northwestern University.   RESOURCES: Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000–2000, by Avner Greif, Joel Mokyr, and, Guido Tabellini (2025). "The Outsize Role of Immigrants in US Innovation," by Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade, and Beatriz Pousada (NBER, 2023). A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy, by Joel Mokyr (2016). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012). "The Economics of Being Jewish," by Joel Mokyr (Critical Review, 2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to another riveting episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, where navigating the complexities of our ever-changing world is front and center. In this episode, Tom Bilyeu and co-host DREW dive headfirst into the turbulence of our current global landscape—covering everything from intensifying conflicts in Iran and shifting U.S. military strategies, to the surprising moves of countries like Poland pursuing nuclear weapons, and the intricate economic warfare playing out beneath the headlines. Together, they unravel the “narrative warfare” shaping public perception and challenge the official stories behind major decisions. You'll hear candid analysis of the recent U.S. and Israeli military operations, the economic underpinnings driving geopolitical clashes, the hidden power of sovereign wealth funds, and how insurance, oil, and investment dollars are quietly influencing the course of world events. Beyond the headlines, Tom Bilyeu lays out his perspective on why economics—not just ideology or politics—is at the core of these dramatic moves, and why the survival and prosperity of entire regions might depend on who controls capital flows in the age of AI. It's an unflinching look at the real motivations behind international power plays and the very human narratives built along the way. Whether you're here for insights on global economics, political chess, or just want to better understand how world leaders spin the truth, this episode promises a thought-provoking, transparent conversation you won't want to miss. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactSumm: code TOMVIP20 for 20% off your first year at https://summ.com?via=tombilyeu&coupon=TOMVIP20Blocktrust IRA: get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.comQuo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impactQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Duck.Ai: Protect your privacy at https://duck.ai/impact Monetary Metals: Future-proof your wealth at https://monetarymetals.com/impact Plaud: Get 10% off with code TOM10 at https://plaud.ai/tom Iran war, Khamenei succession, US military strategy, nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, South Korea stock market, oil prices, narrative warfare, Trump Genius Act, crypto industry, US-Ecuador military operation, insurance companies, Strait of Hormuz, Middle East conflict, air superiority, B-2 bombers, B-52 bombers, economic drivers of war, City of London, UK-US relations, AI investments, sovereign wealth funds, US-Navy escorts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Israel-Iran tensions, Netanyahu, political narratives, private equity, Amazon Web Services, Epstein files. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave and Robbie "the fire" Bernstein discuss the confusing details of the war with Iran so far, Ben Shpiro's public comments in which he claimed Dave "hates America", and more.Support Our Sponsors:CrowdHealth - https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/promos/potpFÜM - http://tryfum.com/problem & Use code PROBLEMMASA Chips - https://www.masachips.com/DAVE YoKratom - https://yokratom.com/Part Of The Problem is available for early pre-release at https://partoftheproblem.com as well as an exclusive episode on Thursday!PORCH TOUR DATES HERE:https://robbernsteincomedy.com/eventsFind Run Your Mouth here:YouTube - http://youtube.com/@RunYourMouthiTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/run-your-mouth-podcast/id1211469807Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/4ka50RAKTxFTxbtyPP8AHmFollow the show on social media:X:http://x.com/ComicDaveSmithhttp://x.com/RobbieTheFireInstagram:http://instagram.com/theproblemdavesmithhttp://instagram.com/robbiethefire#libertarianSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Live from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our panel break down where AI is already delivering real returns—and where rapid advances are raising new risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today we've got a special episode on AI adoption. And this is a first in a two-part conversation live from our Technology, Media and Telecom conference.It's Thursday, March 5th at 11am in San Francisco.We're really excited to be here with all of you taping live. And we've got on stage with me. Stephen Byrd, he's our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research; Josh Baer, Software Analyst; and Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst.So, Stephen, I want to start with you, pretty broad, pretty high level. We recently published our fifth AI Mapping Survey that identifies how different companies are exposed to the broad AI theme. Can you just share with us some insights from that piece and how stocks are performing with this AI exposure?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we've been doing this survey now, thanks to you, Michelle, and your excellent work, for quite a while. And every six months it is pretty telling to see the progression.I would say a few things that got my attention from our most recent mapping was the number of companies that are quantifying the adoption benefits continues to go up quite a bit. And to me that feels like that's going to be table stakes very soon as in every industry you see two or three companies that are really laying out quite specifically what they expect to be able to do with AI and lay out the math. I think that really is going to pull all the other companies to follow suit. So, we're seeing that in a big way.We do see adopters, with real tangible benefits performing well. But a new thing that we're seeing now, of course, in the market is concerns that in some cases adoption can lead to dramatic deflation, disruption, et cetera. That's coming up as well. So, we're seeing greater concerns around disruption as well.But broadly, I'd say a proliferation of adoption, that that universe of companies continues to grow, increases in quantification of the benefits. So, that is good. What's really surprised me though, is the narrative among investors has so quickly moved from those benefits which we've talked about into flipping that to toggle all negative, which I know some of our analysts have to deal with every day. The mapping work suggests significant benefits. But the market is fast forwarding to very powerful AI that is very disruptive in deflation. And that's been a surprise to me.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, I want to bring software into this. Your team has been arguing that AI is actually good for software. And it's really something that you need that application layer to then enable other companies to adopt AI. Can you tell us a little bit about how much GenAI could add to the broader enterprise software market? And how are you thinking about monetization these days?Josh Baer: Of course. I think the best starting place is a reminder that AI is software, and so we see software as a TAM expander. And in many ways, even though this is extremely exciting innovation, it's following past innovation trends where first you see value accrue and market cap accrue to semiconductors, and then hardware and devices, and then eventually software and services. And we do think that that absolutely will occur just given [$]3 trillion in infrastructure investment into data centers and GPUs.There's got to be an application layer that brings all of these productivity and efficiency gains to enterprises and advanced capabilities to consumers as well. And so we see AI more as an evolution for software than a revolution. An evolution of capabilities and expansion of capabilities. LLMs and diffusion engines absolutely unlocked all of these new features of what software can do. But incumbents will play a key role in this unlock.And our CIO surveys really support that. Quarterly we ask chief information officers about their spending intentions, and these application vendors who we cover in the public markets are increasingly selected as vendors that companies will go to, to help deploy and apply AI and LLM technologies.So, to answer your question, we estimate GenAI could unlock [$]400 billion in incremental TAM for software; for enterprise software by 2028. And this is based on looking at the type of work able to be automated, the labor costs associated with that work, the scope of automation, and then thinking about how much of that value is captured typically by software vendors.Michelle Weaver: And you have a bit of a different lens on AI adoption. So, what are some of the ways you're hearing software customers using these AI tools and anything interesting that popped up at the conference?Josh Baer: To echo what Stephen laid out, I mean, all of our software companies are using AI internally, both to drive efficiencies, but also to move faster. So thinking about product. Innovation, you know, the incumbents are able to use all of the same coding tools and, you know, …Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Josh Bear: … products geared to developers to move faster and more efficiently on R&D. So, they're doing more. From a sales and marketing perspective, a G&A perspective, every area of OpEx, our software companies are in a great position to deploy the AI tools internally.I think more important[ly], speaking to this TAM and expanded opportunity, is our companies have skews that they're monetizing. It might be a separate suite that incorporates advanced AI functionality. It might be a standalone offering, or it might be embedded into the core platform because the essence of software is AI and it, you know, leading to better retention rates and acceleration from here.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And Stephen, going back to you on the state of play for AI, we had the AI labs here and we heard a lot about the developments and what's to come. So, what's your view on the trajectory for LLM advancements and what are some of the key signposts or catalysts you're watching here?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is for me, maybe the most important takeaway of the conference – is this continued non-linear improvement of LLMs, which we've been writing about for quite some time. And just to give you an example, we think many of the labs have achieved a step change up in terms of the compute that they have, in some cases 10 x the amount of compute to train their LLMs. And that [if] the scaling laws hold – and we see every sign that they will – a 10x increase in compute used to train the models results in about a doubling of the model capabilities.Now just let that sink in for a moment. Let's just think about that. A doubling from here in a relatively short period of time is difficult to predict. It's obviously very significant and I think several of the LLM execs at our event sounded to me extremely bullish on what that will be. A lot of that I think will be evident in greater agentic capabilities.But also, I'd say greater creativity. It was about three weeks ago, three of the best physics minds in the world worked with an LLM to achieve a true breakthrough in physics – solving a problem that had never been solved before. A couple of days ago, a math team did the same thing. And so, what we're seeing is sort of these breakthrough capabilities in creativity. This morning I thought Sam speaking to, you know, incredible increases in what these models can do – which also brings risk. You know, I think it was interesting he spoke to, you know, the risk of misalignment, the risk of what these models are doing.But for me, that's the single biggest thing that I'm thinking about, and that's going to be evident in the next several months.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Stephen Byrd: So, you know, on the positive side, it leads to greater benefits from AI adoption. And to Josh's point that, you know – more and more the economy can be addressed by AI, I do get concerned about the risk that that kind of step change will create greater concerns about disruption and deflation.That causes me to think a lot about that dynamic. Interestingly, we think the Chinese labs will not be able to keep pace just for one reason, which is compute. We think the Chinese labs have everything else they need. They have the talent, the infrastructure. They certainly have the energy, power. But they don't have the chips.If what we laid out with the American models turns out to be true, I could see a chain reaction where the Chinese government pushes the Trump administration for full transfer of the best technology to China. And China could use their rare earth trade position to ensure that. So, that's sort of the chain reaction I've been thinking about.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. So, let's think about then bottlenecks in the U.S. Power is still one of the main bottlenecks. We had several of the solutions providers here at the conference. So, what are you thinking in terms of the size of the power bottleneck in the U.S. and how are we going to fix that?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, absolutely. I am bullish on the companies that can de-bottleneck power, not just in the U.S., a few other places. Let's go through the math in terms of the problem we face and then the solution.So, we have this very cool – it is cool if you're a nerd – power model that starts in the chip level up, from our semiconductor teams. And from that, we build a global power demand model for data centers. We then apply that to the U.S.Through 2028 we need about 74 gigawatts of data centers, both AI and non-AI to be built in the United States. I don't think we'll be able to achieve that for lots of reasons. But starting from that 74, we have sort of 10 gigs that have been recently built or are under construction. We have 15 gigs of incremental grid access, but after those two, we have to go to unconventional solutions, meaning typically off-grid solutions, over 40 gigawatts of unconventional solutions.So that will be repurposing Bitcoin sites, which could be sort of 10 to 15 gigawatts. That'll be big. Renewable energy, fuel cells will be part of the solution. Gas turbines will be a big part of the solution. Co-locating at a few nuclear plants. I'm less bullish than I used to be on that. But when we net all that out, we think the U.S. is likely to be 10 to 20 percent short of the data center capacity that will need to be in.It's not just a power grid access issue, though, that's a big one. Labor is now showing up as a huge issue. Many of the companies I speak to trying to develop data centers struggle with availability of labor. Electricians being one very tangible example. In the U.S. we need hundreds of thousands of additional electricians.So, for any of your children, like mine, thinking about careers, you know, you'd be surprised [at] the amount of money that people are making in the infrastructure business that does feel like it's a labor shift that's going to have to happen, but it's going to take years. So, in that context, we had a number of the Bitcoin companies at our event here. And the economics of turning a Bitcoin site into hosting a data center are extremely attractive. I mean, extremely attractive.To give you a sense of that. Before this opportunity presented itself to these Bitcoin players, those stocks tended to trade at an enterprise value per watt of about $1 to $2 a watt. Then we started to see these deals in which the Bitcoin players build a data center and lease them to hyperscalers. Those deals – depends a lot on the deal but – have created between $10 and $18 a watt of value. Let me repeat that. 10 to 18 – relative to where these stocks were at 1 to 2.Now many of these stocks have rerated, but not all of them. And there's still quite a bit of upside. And what we've noticed is the economics that the hyperscalers are paying are trending up and up and up. Because of this power shortage that we're dealing with. So, a lot of exciting opportunities are still in the power space.Michelle Weaver: Great. Well, I think that's a good place to wrap this first part of our conversation around AI adoption and the state of play. We'll be back again tomorrow with Part Two, looking at financing and risks.To our panelists, thank you for talking with me. And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In the second of our two-part panel discussion from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our analysts break down the complexity of financing AI's infrastructure and the technological disruption happening across industries.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome back to Thoughts on the Market, and welcome to part two of our conversation live from the Technology, Media and Telecom conference. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Today we're continuing our conversation with Stephen Byrd, Josh Baer and Lindsay Tyler. This time looking at financing AI and some of the risks to the story. It's Friday, March 6th at 11am in San Francisco. So yesterday we spoke about AI adoption. And while there's a lot of excitement on this theme, there've also been some concerns bubbling up. Lindsay, I want to start with you around financing. That's another critical component of the AI build out. What's your latest on the magnitude of the data center financing gap, and what role [are] credit markets playing here? Lindsay Tyler: Yeah, in partnership with Thematic Research, Stephen and team, and colleagues across fixed income research last summer, we did put out a note, thinking about the data center financing gap, right? So, Stephen and team modeled a $3 trillion global data center CapEx need over a four-year timeframe. So, in partnership with fixed income across asset classes, we thought: okay, how will that really be funded? And we came to the conclusion that the hyperscalers, the high quality hyperscalers, generate a good amount of cash flow, right? So, there's cash from ops that can fund approximately half of that. But then we think that fixed income markets are critical to fund the rest of the funding gap. And really private credit is the leader in that and then aided by corporate credit and also securitized credit. What we've seen since is that yes, private credit has served a role. There is this difference between private credit 1.0, which is more of that middle market direct lending. And then private credit 2.0, which is more ABF – Asset Based Finance or Asset Backed Finance. And what we see there is an interest in leases of hyperscaler tenants, right? We've also seen in the market over the past nine months or so, investment grade bond issuance by hyperscalers. Obviously, a use of cash flow by hyperscalers. We've seen the construction loans with banks and also private credit per reports. We've also seen high yield bond issuance, which is kind of a new trend for construction financing. We've seen ABS and CMBS as well. And then something new that's emerging in focus for investors is more of a chip-backed or compute contract backed financings, like more creative solutions. We're really in early innings of the spend right now. And so, there is this shift. As we start to work through the construction early phases, the next focus is: okay, but what about the chips? And so, I think a big focus is that, you know, chips are more than 50 percent of the spend for if you're looking at a gigawatt site. And it depends what type of chips and kind of what generation. But that's the next leg of this too. So, it's kind of a focus, you know, for 2026. Michelle Weaver: And how do you view balance sheet leverage and financing when you think about hyperscaler debt raising magnitude and timelines? Lindsay Tyler: So just to bring it down to more of a basic level, if you need compute, you really might need two things, right? A powered shell and then the chips. And so, if you're looking for that compute, you could kind of go in three basic ways. You could look to build the shell and kind of build and buy the whole thing. You could lease the shell, from, you know, a developer, maybe a Bitcoin miner too – that is converted to HBC. And then you kind of buy the chips and you put them in yourselves. Or you could lease all the compute; quote unquote lease, it's more of a contract. In terms of the funding, if you're thinking about the cash flows of some of the big companies – think of that as primarily being put towards chip spend. If you're thinking about the construction that's kind of split between cash CapEx but also leases. And so, what we've seen is that there is more than [$]600 billion of un-commenced lease obligations that will commence over the next two to five years, across the big four or five players. And then my equity counterparts estimate around [$]700 billion of cash CapEx that needs this year for some of those players as well. So, these are big numbers. But that's kind of how, at a basic level, they're approaching some of the financing. It's a split approach. Michelle Weaver: And what have you learned around financing the past few days at the conference? Anything incremental to share there? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Yeah. I think I found confirmation of some key themes here at the conference. The first being that numerous funding buckets are available. That was a big focus of our note last year is that you can kind of look at asset level financing. You can look at public bonds, you can look at some equity. There are these different funding buckets available.The second is that tenant quality matters for construction financing. I think I've seen this more in the markets than maybe at this conference over the past two to three weeks. But that has been a focus of pricing for the deals, but also market depth for the deals. A third confirmation of a key theme was around the neo clouds and also the GPU as a service business models. Thinking about those creative financings, right. Are they thinking about from their compute counterparties? Would they like upfront payments? Might they look to move financing off [the] balance sheet, if they have a very high-quality investment grade rated counterparty? So, there is some of this evolution around those solutions. And then a fourth key theme is just around the credit support. And Stephen has and I have talked about this around some of the Bitcoin miners – is that, you know, there can be these higher quality investment grade players that might look to lend their credit support. Maybe a lease backstop to other players in the ecosystem in order to get a better pricing on construction financing. And we are seeing some press pickup around how that might play out in chip financing down the road too. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. AI driven risk and potential disruption has been a big feature of the price action we've seen year-to-date in this theme. Stephen, what are some asset classes or businesses you see as resistant to some of this disruption? Stephen Byrd: We spend a lot of time thinking about, sort of, asset classes that are resistant to deflation and disruption. And what's interesting is there's actually a handful of economists in the world that are doing remarkable work on this concept. That they would call it the economics of transformative AI. There are three Americans, two Canadians, two Brits, a number of others who are doing really, really interesting work. And essentially what they're looking at is what do economies look like? As we see very powerful AI enter many industries – cause price reductions, deflation… What does that do? They have a lot of interesting takeaways, but one is this idea that the relative value of assets that cannot be deflated by AI goes up. Very simple idea. But think of it this way, I mean, there's only, you know, one principle resort on Kauai. You know, there's a limited amount of metals. And so, what we go through is this list that's gotten a lot of investor attention of resistant asset classes or more of the resistant asset classes that can go up in value. So, there are obvious ones like land, though you have to be a little careful with real estate in the sense that like, office real estate probably wouldn't be where you would go. Nor would you potentially go sort of towards middle income, lower income housing. But more, you know, think of industrial REITs, higher-end real estate. But there are a lot of other categories that are interesting to me. All kinds of infrastructure should be quite resistant, all kinds of critical materials. Metals should do extremely well in this. But then when you go beyond that, it's actually kind of interesting that there; arguably there's a longer list than those classic sort of land and metals examples.Examples here would be compute… Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Stephen Byrd: I thought Jensen put it, well, you know, if there's a limited amount of infrastructure available, you want to put the best compute. And ultimately, in some ways, intelligence becomes the new coin of the realm in the world, right? So, I would want to own the purveyors of intelligence. It could include high-end luxury. It could include unique human experiences. So, I don't know how many of y'all have children who are sort of college age. But my children are college age, and they absolutely hate what they would call AI slop.They want legit human content, and they seek it out. And they absolutely hate it when they see bad copies of human content. And so, I think there is a place in many parts of the economy for unique human experiences, unique human content, and it's interesting to kind of seek out where that might be in the economy. So those would be some examples of resistant assets. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, software's been at really the center of this AI disruption debate. How would you compare the current pullback in software multiples to prior periods of peak uncertainty? And do you think any of these concerns are valid? Or how are you thinking about that? Josh Baer: Great question. I mean, software multiples on an EV to sales basis are down 30 – 35 percent just from the fall, I will say. And that's overall in the group. A lot of stocks, multiple handfuls, are down 60-70 percent over the last year. And what's being priced in is really peak uncertainty, a lot of fear. And these multiples, now four times sales – takes us all the way back about 10 years to the shift to cloud. And this time in many ways reminds us of that period of peak fear. In this case, what's being priced in is terminal value risk. We talked about this TAM yesterday. But you know, who is going to win that share? How is it divided from a competitive perspective across these model providers? The LLMs with new entrants. Of course, the incumbents. And this other idea of in-housing. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh Baer: So, there's competitive risk, there's business model risk. Are companies going to need to change their pricing models from seat-based to consumption or hybrid. And then last margin risk. Just thinking about the higher input costs and higher capital intensity. And so, you know, all of those fears are being priced in right now. Michelle Weaver: And we, of course though, had a bunch of these companies live with us at the conference. How are they responding to some of these risks? How are they addressing these investor concerns? Josh Baer: Most of the companies here from our coverage are the incumbent software vendors. And I think that the leadership teams did a really nice job coming out and defending their competitive moats and really articulating the story of why they are in a great position to capitalize on the opportunity. And the reasons can vary across different companies. But some of the commonalities are around enterprise grade, trust, security, governance, acceptance from IT organizations.The idea of vibe coding all apps in an organization get squashed when you actually talk to companies and chief information officers. For some companies there's proprietary data moats, network effects. All of that's on top of existing customer relationships. And so, you know, that was the message from the companies that we had. That we're the incumbents. We get to use all of the same innovative AI technology in the same way that all these different competitive buckets do. But we have, you know, that differentiation in that moat. And so, we're in a good place. Michelle Weaver: I want to wrap on a positive note. Stephen, what did you hear at the conference that you're most excited about? Stephen Byrd: I'd say the life sciences. A few investors pointed out that perhaps AI has a PR problem these days. And I do think showing a significant benefit to humanity in terms of improved health outcomes, whether that's just better diagnosis, you know. Away from this event, but I was in India the week before and, you know, AI can have a powerful benefit to the people who suffer the most in terms of providing very powerful medical tools in a distributed manner. So, I'm a big fan there.But you know, in many ways, curing the most challenging diseases plaguing humanity. The kind of problems involved in providing those and developing those cures are perfect for AI. So that, for me – stepping way back – that is by far the most exciting thing. Michelle Weaver: Josh, same to you. What are you most excited about? Josh Baer: From my perspective, it's potentially the turning point for software. The ability to showcase that we are at this inflection point and acceleration. To actually see that it takes time for our software companies to develop new AI technologies. Put that into products that have been tested and proven and go through the enterprise adoption cycle. And that we're at the cusp of more adoption – that's what our survey work says. And to see that inflection, I think can help to rerate this sector. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, same question for you… Lindsay Tyler: Maybe I'll tie it to markets. I've already had a lot of more conversations with equity investors over the past, how many months? There's a big fixed income focus right now, which is a great, you know, spot and really interesting opportunity in my seat. And there's a lot of interesting structures coming to be right now in the credit space. So, I think it's an exciting time. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, Stephen, Josh, thank you very much for joining to recap the event and let us know what you learned at the conference. To our audience, thank you for listening here live. And to our audience tuning in, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Lydia DePillis, New York Times reporter covering the American economy, talks about how the war with Iran could affect the economy at home, as issues with oil prices, supply chains and the massive cost of the war begin to pile up. Photo credit: Natasha Chebanoo on Pexels.