Demographic Doom Podcast

In this unscripted episode, Glenn Campbell discusses the role of personality in the formation and maintenance of his hypothetical post-nuclear family system. Discussion includes MBTI, the Five Factor Model, the Dark Triade traits and recognized personality disorders. Expanded description and YouTube version coming soon. 

As an addendum to the previous episode, Glenn Campbell provides a 6th reason that parents should not live with their children in the post-nuclear family: It insulates the children from the parents' disputes. The children's household is governed by rules established and enforced by the adults. With multiple parents, there are bound to be disputes on matters of policy and on specific conflicts. These should be debated and resolved outside the hearing of the children, which is less likely if multiple parents are living in the house. Children should also be insulated from the ups and downs of their parents' personal relationships. Under the traditional nuclear family, divorce or open conflict between the parents can be devastating to the children. In the post-nuclear family, a divorce among the parents would have little impact on the kids. They'll still see both parents, but maybe not on at the same time. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to resources: j.mp/dd_disputes [ep 63, 16 July 2021]

In an unscripted episode, Glenn Campbell answers a question about his theoretical post-nuclear family system: Why he believes the parents should not live in the same household as the children. He cites 5 reasons: ① to preserve the child-friendly culture and physical features of the main household, ② to encourage division of labor among the adults, ③ to insulate the children from the parents' wealth, ④ to encourage the independence of the children's household, ⑤ to facilitate a work-self-family balance among the adults. Although adults would not normally occupy the same dwelling as the kids, Glenn cites two exceptions: the elderly or sick who require care, and where necessary for physical protection. If the elderly and sick live in adjacent quarters, the children can assist in their care. There might be more physical distance between parents and children in safe societies, and less in unsafe ones. Finally, Glenn returns to ①, discussing the intentional isolation of the children's household. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to resources: j.mp/dd_noadults [ep 62, 15 July 2021]

In this unscripted episode, Glenn Campbell discusses various topics relating to babies in his hypothetical Post-Nuclear Family. Inspired by a screaming baby on a red-eye flight. First, he says a baby would rarely fly in a plane under his system, because babies and young children are firmly attached to house in which they are raised. Only older children are likely to travel. Another issue he raises is why one baby on a plane is crying while others seem to sleep. It may be an issue of personality, which every family has to accommodate. Glenn talks about birth spacing and why two years between children is optimal. Finally, he touches on the topic of where the babies come from. Initially, they come from the founding mothers, coordinating their births. When their fertility expires, that when the real challenges begin. — This episode is accompanied by in-person video on the YouTube version. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_baby [ep 61, 9 July 2021]

Glenn Campbell on what is predictable and what isn't, based on demographics and macroeconomics. They place a hard ceiling on future economic, but they don't tell us what will happen below that ceiling. The wildcards are human politics and human behavior, which escape easy predictions. Glenn illustrates these limitations with three results of the pandemic that he never would have predicted: (1) a rise in stocks and asset markets despite a failing economy. (2) Race riots in the midst of a pandemic. (3) The current labor shortage despite high unemployment. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_dontknow [ep 60, 15 June 2021]

Glenn Campbell reveals the connection between UFOs and human demographics: There isn't any! [Expanded description coming soon.] — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_ufos [ep 59, 10 June 2021]

Glenn Campbell reviews the 2020 documentary "Spaceship Earth" about the 1990s ecological experiment Biosphere 2. In September 1991, eight "astronauts" were locked in sealed greenhouse in the Arizona desert, where they were expected to produce their own food, water and air. It was a utopian system destined to fail, but Glenn sees lessons in it for his own speculative system, the post-nuclear family. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_biosphere [ep 58, 24 May 2021]

Glenn Campbell summarizes the humanity's greatest demographic threat—a shortage of babies in the developed world—and his proposed long-term solution: a system he calls the "post-nuclear family". Speaking without a script (and on video), Glenn first describes the global baby bust and the financial crisis it is creating. Although the population is getting older and less productive, governments are spending money far more money than they are collecting in tax. This condition has to end in tragedy. At 40:00, Glenn begins to describe his theoretical family system and how it would work. He proposes bringing back big families: between 9 and 18 kids in one household. The only way this can realistically be pulled off is by a number of adults joining forces. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the YouTube version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_doom [ep 57, 3 May 2021]

For two decades now, the US government his spent far more money than it collects in taxes, and the pandemic has only accelerated the process. Before Covid-19, the government borrowed one of every four dollars it spent. In 2020 and 2021, the deficit is one of every two dollars. The shortfall has been made up by government borrowing and ultimately the printing of new money. A mystery among investors and economists is why all this money creation hasn't resulted in staggering consumer inflation. Glenn Campbell thinks he has the answer: The extra money has been drawn into asset markets, where it will ultimately be destroyed. Starting with the recent $1.9 trillion Covid Relief Bill, Glenn describes the mechanisms behind his "Zero-Inflation Theory", where markets collapse but the U.S. dollar holds its value. Glenn also discusses the role of index funds and passive investing in accelerating a coming stock market collapse. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_zeroinflation [ep 56, 31 Mar 2021]

The world is heading for a massive monetary collapse due to runaway money printing. Glenn Campbell has said it before on this podcast, and he'll probably say it again. This time, however, he has a witness—or at least someone with public stature who is saying the same things. Glenn begins this episode by playing a 4-minute edited clip from Jim Rogers, a 78-year-old investor who has been saying the same things for several years. Rogers says that government money printing is out of control and can only end in disaster. After the clip, Glenn presents his own case that government debt is the economy's biggest threat—even a threat to civilization as we know it. Governments can finance their massive debts only through the printing of money, which will eventually result in a debasement of the currency and unpredictable shocks to the rest of the economy. That fact that stock markets are near all-time highs at the time of this episode shouldn't be taken as reassuring. The whole system is deeply unhealthy and can only end in an unthinkable outcome. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_rogers [ep 55, 19 Feb 2021]

[13 min] Continuing the discussion of his proposed post-nuclear family, Glenn Campbell explains the critical role of "parentification"—or having older children care for younger ones. To child welfare workers, it is often considered child neglect when an underage child is found to be caring for their parents or siblings. Glenn seems to be proposing the same thing, except that in his system there are still responsible adults on duty. They just don't do the dirty work. Children are expected to handle nearly all of the routine tasks of the household—commensurate with their ability. This includes changing diapers, preparing meals, cleaning house and teaching younger children basic skills. This isn't just a labor-saving device for the parents but an important socialization exercise for the older children. One of the main aims of family life is to build strong emotional bonds between the siblings so they remain loyal to the family for life. There is no better way to do it than to give children important tasks in caring for each other. — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_parentification [ep 54, 13 Feb 2021]

In a "dramatic reading" of his webpage, Glenn Campbell lists 15 key characteristics of his proposed post-nuclear family. In this system, between 9 and 18 children are raised in a single household by a consortium of parents who do not live there. Glenn begins with an overview and a list of five issues the structure is intended to address, including the high cost of parenting. He then lists the 15 "defining" features followed by a dozen "implied" ones. The implied features are not essential to the system, but Glenn believes they are likely offshoots of his main proposal. Finally, Glenn lists a series of "policy" issues that the founding parents must address before the family begins. Glenn is reading from the webpage: DemographicDoom.com/postnuclear  — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_fifteen [ep 53, 4 Feb 2021]

Glenn Campbell returns to his predictions of dire economic collapse using a new device: imagining a world without money. If society had no dollars, euros or yen, would the economy still be in trouble? It could be, says Glenn. —— Without currency, people could still trade with each other through direct barter and the next-order alternative: an exchange of promises. Instead of trading one product for another, you could trade one product for the *promise* of another, written on a piece of paper. For example, a chicken farmer could sell printed coupons that entitled the bearer to received one chicken at a future date, and these coupons could be traded like cash is today. The only problem arises when the farmer promises more chickens than he can produce. Then you would have a bubble that must eventually collapse. —— So why is the world economy in so much trouble today? Simple: There are far more outstanding promises than can possibly be fulfilled. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_withoutmoney [ep 52, 19 Jan 2021]

At the end of 2020, Glenn Campbell offers a review of the past year and makes some predictions for coming years. The pandemic is the obvious bombshell of 2020, but Glenn focusses more on his own personal year—defeating cancer once again—and on the bigger macroeconomic picture beyond the pandemic. Glenn spent the first few months of the pandemic in cancer treatment, and he tells us about his adventures. He also describes his surprise in watching the stock market RISE in the face of an devastating economic downturn. In Podcast #22 in Dec. 2019, a month before  the pandemic became known, Glenn predicted that a "black swan" would crash the economy. The pandemic seemed to fit the bill, but it didn't crash the stock market, which, at year end, is flying higher than ever. Glenn explains why this is bad and why our economic crisis won't end with a vaccine. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_2020review [ep 51, 31 Dec 2020]

In his fourth episode on the "post-nuclear family", Glenn Campbell talks about where the babies come from to populate his proposed family structure. The family may be started by a consortium of three or more couples who create babies in the traditional way. This works for the first couple of decades, but eventually the fertility of the founding mothers runs out, and the family has to look elsewhere for new babies. In the world of 2048 and beyond, many fertility methods will no doubt be available, but all of them will require relatively young women to bring an embryo to term. Glenn sees three potential source of new mothers: (1) new women or couples recruited into the family, (2) paid surrogates, and (3) using the family's own daughters to bear new children. Glenn discusses the pros and cons of each method as well as the fourth option of adopting unwanted children from the outside world. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_babies [ep 50, 13 Dec 2020]

About two weeks after Joseph Biden was elected President of the United States, Glenn Campbell analyses the demographic damage caused by Trump and makes some predictions for the Biden Administration. Although the President of the United States will no longer be actively damaging the country, most of the macroeconomic problems of the Trump era will continue into the Biden era. The US Government has accumulated more debt than can possibly be paid back, and even the most competent administration can't make it go away. Conceptually, the Titanic has already hit the iceberg and is waiting to sink. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_biden [ep 49, 21 Nov 2020]

In his third episode on his proposed "post-nuclear family," Glenn Campbell describes how this large family structure would educate its young. Since "software programming" is the main function of the family, it is not taken lightly. While public education is a possibility, most post-nuclear families would probably prefer home schooling. With 9-18 kids in one house, supported by many adults, the household could afford to hire a teacher, but this person would do less teaching and more managing. Much of the work of early childhood education would fall on older children, who have time for the intense one-on-one tutoring of language and motor skills. Older children would get their learning from a variety of sources, including textbooks, online classes and mentoring by adults. The curriculum is a community project, negotiated among the parents. The teacher is the conductor, implementing the education plan and making sure benchmarks are achieved. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_culture [ep 48, 9 Nov 2020] 

Glenn Campbell responds to comments on his previous episode suggesting that his post-nuclear family is "Communism" and is destined to fail for the same reasons. Glenn compares his system to two different kinds of 20th Century "communism": Soviet Communism and the kibbutz's of Israel. Every family is inherently communistic: "From each according to his abilities. To each according to his needs." However, the socialism takes place only within the childrearing unit. In the post-nuclear system, adults remain independent and don't try to share everything with each other. The family is supported in the same way as a community church: with voluntary contributions in time and labor from its members. Apart from this, adults maintain their own assets and pursue their own lives. More interesting than Soviet Communism is the kibbutz system of 1960s Israel, which tried to raise children in large groups. It didn't work out, and Glenn explains why. Finally, Glenn defines the "Westermarck effect", which was first identified in the kibbutz system. It will be referenced in a later episode on sexuality. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_communism [ep 47, 30 Oct 2020]

Glenn Campbell describes his proposed family structure, the "post-nuclear family", intended to address the shortcomings of the traditional nuclear family. Instead of one or two adults raising 1-3 children, Glenn proposes 9-18 kids raised under one roof by a consortium of adults who do not live in the home. The advantages of this system are economies of scale and the "captive labor force" of older children caring for younger one. Although the household is supported from the outside and there's usually an adult on duty, most of the routine work of parenthood is performed by children. This is not unreasonable, since the children's ages are evenly spaced and the oldest are essentially adults. Children prepare all the meals, change all the diapers, teach basic skills to the‏ir youngest siblings and perform whatever maintenance duties they are capable of. Teenagers are essentially the parents of their younger siblings, both practically and emotionally. Older adults provide financial support and serve as household supervisors on a scheduled basis; otherwise, they are free to live as they wish separate from the main household. There are many complex aspects to the system which will be covered in future episodes. This episode is only an introduction. This new series is intended replace Glenn's earlier episodes and videos on the "modular family" (the same system but renamed in June 2020). If you are interested in exploring the post-nuclear family, this is the first episode to listen to. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_postnuclear [ep 46, 23 Oct 2020]

On Oct. 8, 2020, after 4½ months on hiatus, Glenn Campbell returns with a new podcast, recapping what has happened both in the world and in his personal life. While there has been plenty of "news" over the past four months, not a lot has changed in the big picture. The pandemic is almost certain to accelerate the birth collapse in developed countries, which will be confirmed by birth statistics in December. While the long-term prospects haven't changed, Glenn is surprised by three "insanities" he wasn't anticipating: (1) The dramatic rise in stock markets despite a crumbling economy. (2) A labor shortage despite massive unemployment, and (3) Reversing of the long-term trend toward unbanization, at least in the biggest cities. Glenn says the true crash has hardly begun. He predicts another Black Swan will be needed to make people take the first Black Swan seriously.  — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_winkle [ep 45, 8 Oct 2020]

In coming months, the world is due for a major collapse of real estate prices. The lockdowns prompted by Covid-19 have exposed the inherent weaknesses of most forms of "place". Offices, retail stores and expensive homes just don't have the same intrinsic value that they did five months ago, and a painful reckoning is at hand. With many employees and college students working successfully from home, it is becoming clear that knowledge work doesn't require a special location. The virus has given a huge boost to telecommuting, and once these wheels have been set in motion, they can't be turned back. The victims of the change are landlords providing office space and colleges forced to maintain expensive buildings that aren't being used, as well as all the workers who construct and maintain these facilities. Homeowners in major cities will also face losses as telecommuters flee to less expensive cities. Knowledge workers may have easier lives, but anyone who are already invested in real estate may face devastating losses. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_realestate [ep 44, 24 May 2020]

In a single episode, Glenn Campbell reviews the entire economic history of the United States from the end of World War II to the current economic collapse. Recorded on May 10, 2020, when stock markets continue to defy the crisis, rising in the face of bad news. Glenn identifies five processes over the past 75 years that have made an economic crisis inevitable: (1) The rise and fall of the Baby Boomers. (2) Our expanded longevity due to advances in safety and medicine. (3) The "inflation of tastes" which has turn our economy into a frivolous one. (4) The explosion of debt in all sectors of the economy that cannot possibly be paid back, (5) Desperate attempts by the Federal Reserve to rectify to previous four processes through destructive monetary policy. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_practices [ep 43, 16 May 2020]

Glenn Campbell discusses a basic dilemma of modern medicine: whether you should spare no expense to save one patient ("best practices") or ration medical resources in such as to save as many patients as possible ("triage medicine"). While he has benefited from best practices as a high-expense cancer patient, he has misgivings about its benefits to society at large. By giving perfect care to just a few patients, a society may end up killing more of its citizens in the long run. Replaying a 6-minute portion of Episode 37, Glenn expands on this dilemma and how it will play out in the future. Mankind may have already achieved "peak medicine" where advances in medical technology do not improve the longevity of the general population. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_practices [ep 42, 29 April 2020]

On April 26, 2020, as most communities remain in lockdown for COVID-19, Glenn Campbell looks back on a video he released a year earlier called, "The Vanity Economy: The First Casualty in the Next Recession". This video was prescient and is rebroadcast here in full. Although Glenn knew nothing of any pandemic back then, he knew that a crash was coming and that it would start with a collapse in the market for nonessential products and services. Everyone needs food and medical care, but they can live without spa treatments, sports equipment, home renovation, new cars and countless other ego-motivated items. In a crash, those are the first things people eliminate from their budgets. Purging things you don't need may seem good for the soul, but it is devastating for a modern economy, which has come to depend on this discretionary market. This episode replays the original 10-minute video (visible on the YouTube version) followed by a commentary bringing it up to date. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_dontneed [ep 41, 26 April 2020]

April 18, 2020 — The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic dilemma first described in 1822. If a village uses a common plot of land to graze its animals, the incentive of each villager is to graze as many animals there as possible, but if everyone in the village does this, the land is denuded and all the animals starve. The only way to preserve the Commons is some form of government regulation limiting the grazing rights of each villager. This analogy applies to all manner of shared resources, like lakes and rivers, as well as financial instruments and the money supply. Governments have been successful in managing real-time resources like grasslands but have been less successful regulating secondary markets involving future resources. When villagers start buying and selling their future grazing rights, it can lead to bubbles where more rights are sold than the future Commons can actually support. That's the condition of our whole economy right now. More debts and promises are being traded than the real economy can ever fulfill. In this episode, Glenn Campbell looks at the new Tragedy of the Commons arising from too much debt and undisciplined monetary policy. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_commons [ep 40, 18 April 2020]

April 9, 2020: As COVID-19 and "Lockdown Fever" grip the United States, virtually every response the Federal government can offer involves spending tons of money. They're sending stimulus checks to taxpayers and subsidizing businesses seen as essential, like banks and airlines. As usual, the government is spending money it doesn't have and never will. It couldn't even live within its means in the good times, and now, in the bad times, Federal debt is set to explode. In this episode, Glenn Campbell explores what will happen when Federal debt reaches its saturation point. Right now, desperate investors are eager to buy any bond the government issues, because it is seen as the least-worst place to put their money, but an insatiable market can't go on forever. Eventually, the Federal reserve must step in, buying bonds from the market and issuing new currency. This flood of new money will eventually result in massive inflation, even if it isn't evident today. Glenn predicts that by the end of 2020, inflation will resemble that of the 1970s, and hyperinflation could be next. In clear and simple terms, he explains how money printing works and why it can't be stopped. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_usdebt [ep 39, 9 April 2020] 

April 8, 2020: As government-mandated lockdowns of "nonessential" workers enter their umpteenth day, Glenn Campbell explains why they are such a bad idea. Lockdowns are blind and indiscriminate, and their economic damage is irreparable. The cure for COVID-19 is strategically addressing the major vectors that convey the disease, like shaking hands and touching door handles. Lockdowns, however, are trying to eliminate every possible risk, no matter how unlikely, and it will be politically difficult to roll them back. That's not to say they won't be effective. Glenn predicts that the epidemic will peak soon, as most vectors of transmission are addressed. The issue, then, will be the long-term economic damage of the lockdowns themselves. This is a case where the cure may be far worse than the disease. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_sorry [ep 38, 8 April 2020]  

On April 5, 2020, as states and countries become deeply entrenched in open-ended lockdowns due to COVID-19, Glenn Campbell finds himself in an unexpected place: a cancer ward in Boston. After 13 days at Beth Israel Hospital, he is beginning treatment for a relapse of his lymphoma, with a good chance of recovery in about 4 months. In this personal episode, light on demography, Glenn describes his treatment plan and cancer history. He also provides some insight into how a big-city hospital is dealing with COVID-19. Is it pandemonium in the wards. Are the staff stressed beyond the breaking point? As far as Glenn can tell, the answer is no. The hospital continues to function pretty much as it normally has. The virus requires many change in procedure, but there is one compensation for the staff: No more annoying visitors. Glenn can be seen recording this podcast in the YouTube version, direct from his hospital bed. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_hospital [ep 37, 6 April 2020]

On March 26, 2020, the world was in the grips of "Lockdown Fever" when whole countries and regions were shutting down in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19. Transportation was restricted; nonessential businesses were closed, and workers were told to go home for an indeterminate period. Glenn Campbell regards these lockdowns as "national suicide", sabotaging the economies of the affected regions while saving few lives. In his words, lockdowns are "trying to kill a mouse with a sledgehammer." You may get the mouse eventually, but you destroy your own home in the process. There are better ways to control the disease, mainly by changing human hygiene practices and contact behavior. To illustrate why these methods work and lockdowns don't, Glenn the explores the vastly different outcomes of two countries: Japan and Italy. Japan, exposed to the virus first, has suffered only 45 deaths to date, while Italy, with half the population and exposed later, already has 7000. In Japan, few businesses have been closed. The subways remain packed with riders, and clubs are still open, while Italy is in full lockdown mode. What accounts for this radical difference in infection rates? If you understand that, you'll understand what really works in controlling the disease and why blanket lockdowns are such a tragic mistake. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_japanitaly [ep 36, 26 Mar 2020]

March 18, 2020 — The main crisis humanity is facing right now is not a viral epidemic. It is a massive worldwide economic collapse, similar in impact to the Great Depression and World War II in Europe. The virus pricked a bubble that was already overinflated and ready to pop. All sectors of the economy have accumulated huge, unsustainable debts, and the coming crisis will neutralize them, probably not gracefully. The crisis will also dissolve many of the assets people thought they had. Almost everyone should be afraid right now. In this episode, Glenn Campbell tries to view the crisis from the widest possible perspective. If aliens were approaching Earth right now, what would they see? — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_comprehend [ep 35, 19 Mar 2020]

March 17, 2020 — As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads around the world, schools, businesses and events are shutting down, crippling the economy. Could the effects of these shutdowns be worse than the coronavirus itself? A lockdown of healthy people is different from a quarantine of sick ones, which is sensible and economically manageable. Telling your entire workforce to go home is not manageable, and its medical benefits are dubious. France and Italy have essentially shut down their entire countries, supposedly for a fixed period, but when will it ever end? At the end of 2-3 weeks, the epidemic will still exist, probably worse than before, so when can you tell people to go back to work and school? The longer a lockdown goes on, the more devastating it is to the economy and to the ultimate ability of a society to function. Instead of locking everything down, Glenn Campbell believes everyone should go about their usual business. They should modify their behavior to avoid infection, but they must do it in sustainable ways that allow the economy to keep functioning. If people simply go into their bunkers for six months, there may be no economy left when they come out. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_lock [ep 34, 17 Mar 2020 revised]

When will the current COVID-19 epidemic end? The answer lies in the concept of "herd immunity." Since a virus can't live outside its hosts, it will expire when it doesn't have enough hosts to sustain it, which happens well before distribution reaches 100%. Current calculations suggest only a maximum of about 60% of the US population will get the disease. The rest are protected by the fact that not enough carriers will be available when too many people become immune. This means that one person does not need to catch the disease to share the immunity of others. Herd immunity has a number of social implications, including the perverse idea of deliberately infecting young people to protect their elders.— Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_herd [ep 33, 15 Mar 2020]

COVID-19 disproportionately threatens the old while sparing the young, and this may spark a new conflict between the generations. Baby Boomers have often been accused of robbing future generations by monopolizing wealth and charging up the national debt. Now younger generations have a chance to get even. Because their risk from the virus is low, young people have little incentive to change their behavior. Many may ignore quarantines and recommended hygiene, which ultimately puts their elders at greater risk. There is no malice involved. Young people are simply obeying their own self-interest, just as the Boomers did. ***** UPDATE 3 MAY 2020: I was wrong! It isn't young people who are protesting the lockdowns but the same older voters who support Donald Trump. See video description for my confession. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_millboom [ep 32]

The week of February 24-28, 2020 saw the worst stock market drop since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Glenn Campbell congratulates himself on his accurate prediction of it in his episode two weeks earlier. This week, he says, marks the beginning of a massive economic collapse he has been predicting for over a year. Looking ahead, he sees only bad things happening as the coronavirus spreads around the world and economies react. While his crystal ball is foggy in the long term, he offers a new prediction for the medium term: Unemployment in the United States will double by the end of June, and things can only get worse from there. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_crash [ep 31]

As of February 23, 2020, the coronavirus had invaded all of China and was gaining a foothold in several other countries, including Italy, South Korea and Iran. Glenn Campbell tries to comprehend the vast financial impacts of the pandemic—and finds that he can't. His position is like someone from 1939 trying to look ahead to the coming World War and trying to predict how it will work out. The best he can do is describe some of the medical and economic factors that will make this a truly horrible event. As of the date of this recording, stock market investors are in denial, pushing indexes to new highs. This cannot last. Before the virus, the economy was already in an "Everything Bubble" and a worldwide pandemic is more than enough to pop it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_collapse [ep 30]

Glenn Campbell describes his own self-styled philosophy called "Triagism" based on medical triage as might be practiced in a big-city Emergency Room. Recorded on 21 February 2020 as coronavirus (Covid-19) spreads around the world, Triagism is highly relevant to the government response to this disease. If there are only 10 beds available in a hospital and 1000 sick patients show up outside its doors, how do the staff decide which patients to take in? In traditional triage, the aim is to save as many lives as possible by carefully selecting the patients served. Mildly sick patients may be declined because they are likely to live without intervention, while severely ill patients may also be refused because they are beyond help. Triage tends to favor the moderately ill patients who can most benefit from treatment. While intended for medical management, the same triage principles can be applied to all kinds of human decisions. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_triagism [ep 29]

By February 10, 2020, the coronavirus outbreak has spread across China despite draconian efforts by the Chinese government to contain it. As of now, the virus doesn't seem to have gained a foothold in overseas countries like the USA, but experts seem to concur that it will become endemic, affecting every part of the globe. At this pivotal point in history, Glenn Campbell summarizes what he understands about the virus and makes some predictions about the social and economic effects. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_corona [ep 28]

As a viral epidemic takes hold in China, Glenn Campbell predicts it will be the "black swan" that pushes the world economy into severe recession. Podcast recorded on Feb. 3, 2020, when only 17,000 cases were confirmed and 360 official deaths. The news will certainly change over the coming weeks, but no matter what happens, the economic costs will be devastating. The real damage is loss of confidence. In previous podcasts, Glenn talked about the worldwide debt crisis and the coming major recession. The economic collapse only needs a trigger, and the coronavirus may be it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_virus [ep 27]

Governments around the world, desperate to raise their birth rates, are offering incentives to parents to make more babies. These can range for one-time cash bonuses to complex parental support systems like subsidized childcare. None of these systems seem to be working. For example, Sweden, which is doing everything right to encourage childbirth, has a fertility rate similar to the USA, which is doing little to support its parents. The core problem with any incentive program is that nothing a government can offer comes anywhere close to the true costs of parenthood. Such incentives may even have the perverse effect of encouraging the wrong kind of people to have children. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_incentives [ep 26]

"Fictitious wealth" is assets that people think they have that cannot be realized in the long run. You can own stocks, bonds, real estate even cash in a mattress, but none of it has a secure value in the future. All assets are vulnerable to crash, and government actions over the past decade have assured that nearly all of them will. During the Global Financial Crisis, big governments and central banks worked together to rescue the economy, but all they really did is kick the can down the road. Particularly demaging are the runaway deficits of the U.S. government and the low interest rates of the Federal Reserve. Both have given rise to an "everything bubble" that is bound to pop in the 2020s. Glenn Campbell explains the mechanisms involved and how there is little hope for a non-catastrophic resolution. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_fiction [ep 25]

In choosing to have a child, you must accept that you may be imposing pain upon them. For example, they may experience a devastating disease or disability which would have never happen had you not brought them into the world. Life is, by its nature, traumatic, and you can justify imposing this trauma on someone else only if you believe the value of sustaining your culture outweighs the potential risks. Roughly one in ten births is likely to become "problematic" in one way or another, but you do it for the nine successes. In this episode, Glenn Campbell explores several aspects of childhood trauma, including a form that every child must face: "real-life adjustment trauma." Parents create a protected environment for their children which is never easy to escape from. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_trauma [ep 24]

Education in America is in crisis. At the upper end, college graduates are saddled with huge student debt. At the lower end, public education is perpetually underfunded. Presidential candidates promise to fix public education and forgive student debt, but how much can the government afford? Since he is not running for public office, Glenn Campbell can offer a frank analysis: Physical universities are destined for collapse, while the best approach to primary education may be returning to the one-room schoolhouse of the past. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_education

In December 2019, Glenn Campbell looks ahead to the 2020s. Economic and political chaos will explode as the bills of the past come due. Massive protests in France, Hong Kong and Chile are just the beginning, because nearly everyone will be unhappy in the coming years. The core issue is that there is not enough pie to go around.  — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_decade

If you are in your 30s and haven't had children, should you feel guilty? Is it your responsibility to create a new life to replace your own? Glenn Campbell breaks down the moral issues. Demographic collapse, like climate change, is a complex problem with no single solution. It is good to want to make the world a better place after you are gone, and this may or may not involve raising children. It may take years to figure out what your mission should be, and your solution may be different than everyone else's. The only thing you should feel guilty about is wasting your personal resources on things you know are not important.

Most wealth is stored in the form of "assets"—that is, things you can own that you assume can later be sold or redeemed for money. Assets can include real estate, stocks, bonds, bank accounts and even cash stored in your mattress. The problem with assets is that their value is always speculative, and their value today may not be their value tomorrow. Even cash carries a risk, because inflation could reduce its buying power over time. Glenn Campbell explores the value of assets based on his experience with real estate in Las Vegas.

Civilization is always getting more complex. This is measurable in various ways, including the number of laws on the books and number of job descriptions in employment records. Modern society consists of systems built upon systems. Each new system is intended to solve a problem, but the total mass of these systems eventually outweighs their utility. When a society becomes so complex that it cannot be governed, it eventually collapses. Glenn Campbell explains complexity, based loosely on the work of anthropologist Joseph Tainter. (Search YouTube for "Joseph Tainter complex".)

Few of us would question that the world is overpopulated. In 50 years, the human population has roughly doubled, from 4 billion to almost 8 billion. Wouldn't it be best if humanity brought down it's numbers to a sustainable level, like 4 billion again? Probably, but there is no painless way to get there. If birth rates fall, as has already happened, it leaves us with a huge excess of ailing old people and not enough active workers to support them. In many ways, government and economies are addicted to growth, and when the growth reverses, a plethora of bad effects can be expected.

Throughout the world, birth rates have fallen dramatically, and most countries are now below replacement fertility, or the number of babies needed to refresh the population. Only recently, the world was worried about a "population explosion". Now an implosion seems more likely. Why is this so? Why aren't people having children in the same numbers as they used to? The core reason is simple: People aren't having children because the costs outweigh the benefits.

How do we define Millennials, Baby Boomers and Gen X'ers? While no individual should be judged by the year of their birth, large groups of people tend to have different life experiences based on when they were born. Older Americas, for example, may have experienced the Great Depression, World War II and the Swinging Sixties, and this affects both their worldview and their economic impact on other generations. Starting with the oldest still alive, Glenn Campbell reviews the commonly accepted generations and explains how they experienced the world.

Millennials (born 1980-1994) often accuse Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) of ruining the world, and vice versa. Boomers have saddled younger generations with huge debts they cannot repay, while Millennials are derided as "snowflakes" who expect the world to take care of them. Demographic philosopher Glenn Campbell explores the statistical reasons for this conflict. With their sheer numbers, Boomers powered the biggest economic expansion in the history of the world. As they move into retirement, this engine will sputter, leaving the Millennials in a deflating growth bubble. (Skippable—covered better in Ep. 16)

While medical science is saving more lives than ever before, the overall longevity of the population isn't improving. In the USA, longevity is even beginning to decline. Why is this so? Part of the answer is that each life saved results in greater medical costs for that patient in the future. Higher costs, in turn, are eroding the social factors that prevent disease. The medical and economic system is focused more on saving people from heart attacks after the fact rather than preventing them. The net result is exploding health care costs while lives only get shorter. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_healthcare [ep 14]