Podcasts about Unemployment

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People without work and actively seeking work

  • 3,533PODCASTS
  • 7,346EPISODES
  • 34mAVG DURATION
  • 3DAILY NEW EPISODES
  • Oct 15, 2021LATEST
Unemployment

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Best podcasts about Unemployment

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Latest podcast episodes about Unemployment

Scroll Down: True Stories from KYW Newsradio
Pandemic economy: Unemployment claims hit a COVID low

Scroll Down: True Stories from KYW Newsradio

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 12:47


There's a lot to be excited about in the jobs report. The retail sales numbers shows that Americans are spending money. And Philadelphia economist David Fiorenza helps us break down the inflation indicators, supply chain pain points, holiday shopping forecast and all the economic news of the week that matters to you in your daily life.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Fire Escape
Help Wanted

The Fire Escape

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 45:04


The U.K.'s Delta Surge is Collapsing. Will Ours? - Intelligencer

Conduit Street Podcast
Leadership - An Episode from the MACo Archives

Conduit Street Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 18:46


On the latest episode of the Conduit Street Podcast, Dr. Debby Thomas joins the podcast to discuss her role at the Professional Development Academy, with an emphasis on the Academy's partnership with the National Association of Counties (NACo) to equip frontline county government professionals with practical leadership skills to deliver results for counties and communities.With a robust curriculum developed by the Professional Development Academy in partnership with Fortune 1000 executives, public sector leaders, world-renowned academics, and thought leaders, including General Colin Powell and Dr. Marshall Goldsmith, the NACo High Performance Leadership Academy was designed specifically for the unique challenges and opportunities of serving in county government.Dr. Debby Thomas teaches leadership, management, organizational, behavior, and research courses and serves as the Associate Dean at George Fox University. She is also a leadership coach at the Professional Development Academy in Portland, and leads the team of Leadership Coaches.The Conduit Street Podcast is available on major platforms like Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and more. Episodes are also available on MACo's Conduit Street blog.Listen to previous episodes of the Conduit Street Podcast on our website.Useful LinksNACo High Performance Leadership AcademyProfessional Development Academy

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - Oil Builds as Refinery Run Rates Drop, Diesel Demand Strengthens, More OSP Cuts & Slow Physical Sales 10/15/2021 #253

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 77:14


***We are pleased to offer new sponsorship opportunities in The Economy, EIA Report and The Frac Spread Count.***Primary Vision Network is covering the hottest topics in energy and the economic implications affecting the US & International Markets.   PVN covers the energy sector as well as the full supply chain with a granular focus on "well to wheel" economics.  Get your brand in front of the movers & shakers of the oil & energy industry and align with the industry's most accurate and trusted content. Reach out to Lisa O'Keefe at lisa.okeefe@pvmic.com for more information.

Trish Intel Podcast
Oct 14 - Investors Are About to Get a Rude Awakening

Trish Intel Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2021 11:42


The Fed's elaborate tap dance is nearing its final act -- and the Joe Biden's economy is expected to falter. Trish explains what that means for your money. Get more from Trish online at https://TrishIntel.com and https://TrishRegan.store. Support the show: https://trishregan.store/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AP Audio Stories
US unemployment claims fall to lowest level since pandemic

AP Audio Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2021 1:18


Cellar Door Skeptics
#289: JOLT: Workforce and Unemployment Analysis

Cellar Door Skeptics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2021 99:50


This week the team takes a ride on the wild side and looks into the JOLT survey, how it reports unemployment and job openings, and how interest rates are affected by this. They also dive into the facebook whistleblower to see what all the fuss was about. Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/cellardoorskeptics Subscribe: http://www.spreaker.com/user/cellardoorskeptics YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/CellarDoorSkeptics/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CellarDoorSkeptics RSS Feed: https://www.spreaker.com/user/8326690/episodes/feed iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/cellar-door-skeptics/id10 Website: http://cellardoorskeptics.com Stitcher: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/cellar-door-skeptics Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cellardoorskeptics PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/CellarDoorSkeptics Intro Music: https://aloststateofmind.bandcamp.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYKbTG3MdQI Links ---------- https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/05/facebook-whistleblower-testifies-congress-515083 https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-whistleblower-sophie-zhang-willing-to-testify-congress-2021-10 https://www.npr.org/2021/10/05/1043377310/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-congress ---------- https://www.reddit.com/r/AskALiberal/comments/q6858p/what_do_you_think_about_the_precedent_of/ ---------- https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-job-openings-and-labor-turnover-data.htm https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/a-record-4point3-million-workers-quit-their-jobs-in-august-led-by-food-and-retail-industries.html https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/NADAC/studies/36545 https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12856.htm https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-vs-jobs-hole-tradeoff-fed-still-hopes-skirt-2021-08-25/ https://www.nshmortgage.com/what-the-jobs-report-says-about-mortgage-interest-rates/ ---------- Quick Saves Tanner: Dave Chappelle Sucks https://www.gq.com/story/chappelle-the-closer Hanna: Dyson Sphere? https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/10/12/strange-radiowaves-galactic-centre-askap-j173608-2-321635.html?campaign=r&area=university&a=public&type=o Buddy: Decolonize Myself https://www.instagram.com/p/CUgjom4rmAJ/?utm_medium=copy_link

Unfilter
371: This has Been Concerning Me

Unfilter

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2021 42:28


A real witch's brew of disaster is stewing. Why I think the near-term is a genuine make-it-or-break-it moment for America's middle class. Links: WATCH: Biden delivers remarks on global supply chain bottlenecks - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBRDTkra_Ug) FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force to Address Short-Term Supply Chain Discontinuities | The White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/08/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-supply-chain-disruptions-task-force-to-address-short-term-supply-chain-discontinuities/) Joe.I.Am's "The Buck Stops With Me" Ft. Lil' KC REMIX - The Remix Bros - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sCpthN9qfY) F Joe Biden Chant Compilation - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-Dar70Lz9k) FJB TikTok Chant Compilation - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DY0HqkStaE) Biden Reacts To F--- Joe Biden Chants Erupting Around The Country - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0jGIRzCEEY) Failure to challenge poor scientific advice during pandemic cost thousands of lives (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/12/failure-challenge-poor-scientific-advice-pandemic-cost-thousands/) COVID lesson: trust the public with hard truths (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02758-2) Merck seeks FDA approval for antiviral COVID pill - Axios (https://www.axios.com/merck-fda-approval-antiviral-covid-19-pill-26ca000c-2325-4a3c-9cf4-21567a5dfe3f.html) Texas Gov. Greg Abbott bans COVID-19 vaccine mandates by any entity - Axios (https://www.axios.com/texas-bans-vaccine-mandates-82b05806-55b4-4cfa-a9ac-ba1959cd235b.html) Natural Immunity and Covid-19: Thirty Scientific Studies to Share with Employers, Health Officials, and Politicians ⋆ Brownstone Institute (https://brownstone.org/articles/natural-immunity-and-covid-19-twenty-nine-scientific-studies-to-share-with-employers-health-officials-and-politicians/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_YJF3bRWtpk3xtpVK0EXmtU38HTdG9xly8Obv9kGf7ig-1634005665-0-gqNtZGzNAqWjcnBszQi9) Economic Policy Institute Newsletter (https://www.epi.org/news/shrinking-labor-force-explains-drop-unemployment/) Southwest Airlines cancels 1,800 flights, blaming weather and staffing (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/10/southwest-airlines-cancels-1000-more-flights-as-disruptions-mount.html) The Priests of the Decline — Andrew Yang (https://www.andrewyang.com/blog/g3snyneafaf817fkkdsvpnf7w611w4) Breaking Up with the Democratic Party — Andrew Yang (https://www.andrewyang.com/blog/breaking-up-with-the-democratic-party) Crew shortages bring unprecedented service cuts to Washington State Ferries | The Seattle Times (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/dozens-of-runs-canceled-on-washington-state-ferries-as-crew-shortages-worsen/) Washington State Ferries cancels 157 sailings over crew shortage (https://www.q13fox.com/news/washington-state-ferries-cancels-157-sailings-friday) A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/07/business/global-energy-crisis/index.html) China Energy Crisis Hitting Everyone in Global Supply Chain - Bloomberg (https://web.archive.org/web/20211008213523/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-07/china-s-energy-crisis-envelops-an-already-slowing-global-economy) China digs in on coal, oil gains as energy crisis deepens | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-digs-coal-oil-gains-energy-crisis-deepens-2021-10-08/) Lebanon's 2 Main State Power Plants Shut Down, Out of Fuel - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/lebanon-s-2-main-state-power-plants-shut-down-out-of-fuel) Elon Musk answers all your questions at Tesla's Shareholder Meeting - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErlS9x_EsbQ) New York will ban workers who refuse vaccine from getting unemployment (https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/report-new-york-will-ban-workers-who-refuse-to-get-vaccine-from-getting-unemployment-insurance/) 'Whoa!' CNBC Hosts Stunned by 'Real Low' Jobs Report (https://www.mediaite.com/news/whoa-cnbc-hosts-offer-stunned-live-reaction-to-real-low-jobs-report/) 136 countries agree to minimum corporate tax rate after Ireland drops its opposition - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/08/business/ireland-global-tax-deal-oecd/index.html) Seattle Police Department braces for mass firing of officers as hundreds have yet to show proof of vaccination (https://www.fox5ny.com/news/seattle-police-department-braces-for-mass-firing-of-officers) Kaiser suspends thousands of workers who didn't get vaccine (https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/Kaiser-Permanente-suspends-unvaccinated-employees-16513715.php) U.S. crude oil price tops $80 a barrel, the highest since 2014 (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/us-crude-oil-price-tops-80-a-barrel-the-highest-since-2014.html) Pfizer's request to OK shots for kids a relief for parents (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-coronavirus-vaccine-health-b9a0e105be709a4d7a1c7d604e8d05f2) nejmoa2114583_disclosures.pdf (https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2114583/suppl_file/nejmoa2114583_disclosures.pdf) Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months | NEJM (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114583?query=featured_home) Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study - The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext) American, other airlines will require employee vaccinations (https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-presses-airlines-employees-205316223.html) Pfizer Scientists in Undercover Videos Say Natural Immunity Likely Better Than COVID-19 Vaccination (https://www.ntd.com/pfizer-scientists-in-undercover-videos-say-natural-immunity-likely-better-than-covid-19-vaccination_685903.html) 403 Seattle PD employees have not submitted proof of vaccination, including 111 who have requested exemptions (https://www.q13fox.com/news/seattle-police-over-350-sworn-personnel-have-not-submitted-proof-of-vaccination) A pill to treat Covid-19: 'We're talking about a return to, maybe, normal life' - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/27/health/covid-treatment-pill-khn-partner/index.html) Molnupiravir - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molnupiravir) Exploring the binding efficacy of ivermectin against the key proteins of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis: an in silico approach (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7996102/) Pfizer CEO Says “Normal Life” Won't Return Without Regular COVID Vaccinations (https://www.blacklistednews.com/article/80875/pfizer-ceo-says-normal-life-wont-return-without-regular-covid.html) Coronavirus Updates: FDA announces 3 key vaccine dates for October - ABC7 New York (https://abc7ny.com/fda-vaccine-decision-emergency-authorization-mandate-pfizer-children/11071641/)

Lawyer Talk Off The Record
Wednesday with The Blitz and Heavy On The Domestic Court Questions

Lawyer Talk Off The Record

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2021 19:40


Great questions from 99.7 The Blitz Nation, as always, each and every Wednesday. This time, questions involving potentially a domestic relations attorney. Physical and mental abuse from the girlfriend (yes, it happens, believe it). She's threatening to take away parental rights if he leaves. Another caller wants to put a tracker on his girlfriend's car - is she really watching the kids? Unemployment battle with an assault charge. And, can you designate a non-family member to be your estate executor? Steve has the answers, as always. Submit your questions to http://www.lawyertalkpodcast.com/ (www.lawyertalkpodcast.com). Recorded at Channel 511, a production of 511 South High Media LLC. Stephen E. Palmer, Esq. has been practicing criminal defense almost exclusively since 1995. He has represented people in federal, state, and local courts in Ohio and elsewhere. Though he focuses on all areas of criminal defense, he particularly enjoys complex cases in state and federal courts. He has unique experience handling and assembling top defense teams of attorneys and experts in cases involving allegations of child abuse (false sexual allegations, false physical abuse allegations), complex scientific cases involving allegations of DUI and vehicle homicide cases with blood alcohol tests, and any other criminal cases that demand jury trial experience. Steve has unique experience handling numerous high publicity cases that have garnered national attention. For more information about Steve and his law firm, visit https://www.ohiolegaldefense.com/ (Yavitch & Palmer Co., L.P.A.)  Support this podcast

The Hartmann Report
CALIFORNIA SPILLS AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGE

The Hartmann Report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2021 58:02


Have we gone too far down the road toward fascism to stop an authoritarian takeover of our nation, or is there still time for genuine patriots to rescue our nation? Trump's coup is being carried out by people of low talents who don't want a real job. Greg Palast - "The California spills & the whole toxic hole that is the Port of Los Angeles. Professor Richard Wolff - Are people rejecting the, "do you want fries with that, minimum wage, economy? We're seeing changes in employment patterns and supply chains as a result of the pandemic - What changes are long term or short term and how will that change the economy? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Make Trades Great Again
#66 Bonus What Options?

Make Trades Great Again

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2021 12:52


Bonus Episode, Eric and Andy talk about ways to eliminate options when laying out a complex task. 

the Offer with Michael Glinter
Season 3 Preview: Solving the Candidate Shortage - Small Town USA

the Offer with Michael Glinter

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2021 12:40


Michael is back! He spent the last several months traveling the US to see what the country had to offer.  During his journey's he learned about many struggles on finding people for work or getting people back to work.  In this episode, he shares some of his experience, talks about hiring in small-town America, and introduces us to the coming season!  Do not forget to subscribe, like, share, forward, and review!GLINTER SOCIAL MEDIA AND CONTACT INFO michael@michaelglinter.com (Email) http://bit.ly/michaelglinter (Podcast) http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelglinter2 (Linked In) #MichaelAGlinter (Twitter) http://www.facebook.com/michael.glinter (Facebook) https://www.youtube.com/c/MichaelGlinter (YouTube) www.michaelglinter.com (Website)

Rideshare Rodeo Podcast
#84 | Veena Dubal: Employee or I.C. (California AB5/Prop22)

Rideshare Rodeo Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2021 66:18


Uber Lyft Drivers and Gig Economy Workers Weekly News & Interviews:   This week I have Veena Dubal on the podcast.  Veena is the Law Professor at University of California Hastings.  She also is a big piece of the California AB5 movement, as well as, an advocate against California Proposal 22.  We covered: 1.       Veena's background and what brought her to the fight for AB5. 2.       The Taxi industry post 9/11. 3.       Law School, Dissertation on ‘A Century Worth of Taxi Worker Organizing'. 4.       2013: learned about ‘for transportation' vehicles picking up people at hotels. 5.       2014: California created “Transportation Network Company”. 6.       2014: Taxi Medallions in both San Francisco and New York City became worthless in such a short time. 7.       Dynamex decision brought on AB5 in California. 8.       Control Test > IRS Test > Borrello Test > ABC Test. 9.       ABC Test has been used for years, in over 20 states to determine whether or not people qualified for unemployment. 10.   Lorena Gonzales moved to have the ABC Test in California not only apply to ‘Unemployment', but for ‘employee' status as well. 11.   The Traditional Independent Contractors and California AB5, carve-outs, and those who never got carve-outs. 12.   California Prop 22: The money spent on the proposal, the passing of Prop 22, the fight that Prop 22 now faces in the state for breaking the ‘California Constitution'. 13.   Proposition 22 was intended to allow app-based on-demand workers/drivers to remain Independent Contractors and other platform worker incentives. 14.   My NEED to be an Independent Contractor, and how can I remain one? 15.   The NEED for ‘Flexibility' on these platforms. 16.   Taxi Union structure of the past. 17.   Limiting the amount of workers on the platform. 18.   How market-to-market growth affects each city. 19.   Massachusetts Bill h.1234 (mirrors California Prop 22). 20.   Will other states start following the fight that draws in ‘The Coalition For Workers' to other states, because they see the amount of money being used to fight Prop 22 in California and Massachusetts. Ready... Set... Rodeo!!!!! Thanks to Veena for coming on the podcast, and agreeing to come back on to finish up our discussion. Rideshare Rodeo is sponsored by Curri (( Drive for Curri )) November 2nd on the podcast will will have a panel of Curri Drivers from different markets, using different vehicles, performing different tasks, experiences, and anything else they want to share! Curri Links: Curri website Curri Twitter Curri Facebook Curri Instagram Curri LinkedIn Sponsored by Curri (( Drive for Curri ))

FM Talk 1065 Podcasts
Midday Mobile - Todd Stacy joins the show and the effect of unemployment aid on jobs numbers - October 11 2021

FM Talk 1065 Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 39:45


Beau of The Fifth Column
Let's talk about the jobs report, early unemployment, and wages....

Beau of The Fifth Column

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 3:55


Don't forget to subscribe. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/support

Broken Pie Chart
Fed Taper | Unemployment | Inflation | GDP | Treasury Yields

Broken Pie Chart

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 21:12


Derek Moore is back to discuss whether the Fed has any cover to not pull back on their monthly asset purchases. Plus, what is the employment situation? What about inflation and supply side supply chains? Are we nearing Stagflation? This and more on the program.   Fed Taper Fed Asset Purchases Inflation Container Shipping Supply Side Issues GDP Now failing Stagflation US Treasuries Close Above 1.6% Unemployment Labor Participation Rate   Mentioned in this Episode:   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   Derek Moore's Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&   Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4   Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

The Pro America Report with Ed Martin Podcast
Who is Sovereign? We the People. | 10.08.2021 #ProAmericaReport

The Pro America Report with Ed Martin Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 40:37


What You Need to Know is Who's sovereign? We the People are. There is tension in countries like Poland and Hungary where they have different views on the nature of their nation and therefore the impact of sovereignty. In Poland their Supreme Court has said it will be sovereign not the EU — Poland enters minefield over EU order. Same thing in Hungary and other places. In America, we're fighting against intrusions of our sovereignty by the federal government. There are so many examples of government overreach within our healthcare system, education, parental right, etc. We the People will lose our sovereignty to Big Government if we aren't careful. Jim Hanson, President of Security Studies Group, & formerly US Army Special Forces, talks about school boards and how they are pushing parents out and saying they don't have a say in their children's education. Be sure to get a copy of his book — Winning the Second Civil War Without Firing a Shot. & Checkout SecurityStudies.org.  Noah Dingley, host of Across The County & Noah's Ark, talks about the Dodgers winning the wildcard this week. Also, Noah gives an update on the politics of the pandemic.  Wrap up: Jobs numbers are in again! And they are not so good. Unemployment dropped but we didn't add many jobs. Another thing to keep an eye on is the Virginia Governor's race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Secure Your Retirement
Andrew Opdyke - The Economy-Inflation-Unemployment-Evergrande

Secure Your Retirement

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 29:13


How is the economy going to change now that we're in the fourth quarter of 2021? Is it still going to be like the last 3 quarters or not? How will it impact our economy in 2022 and the coming few years? There has been a lot of uncertainty in how things are happening, which is leading to market volatility. In this episode of the Secure Your Retirement podcast, we have Andrew Opdyke, a Certified Financial Advisor, Economist at First Trust Advisor. Listen in to learn how the current state after COVID is impacting our economy, inflation, and unemployment. In this episode, find out: ·      Reflecting on the first and second quarter of the year and how the third and fourth look like. ·      How housing consumption and rent prices impact inflation. ·      The likelihood of reacceleration in inflation numbers in the coming years. ·      Andrew compares 2021 to 2013 and why uncertainty in different areas will cause market volatility. ·      Why the employment healing is going to take the market a few years to recover. ·      The minimal impact of the Chinese fund Evergrande on the US economy and S&P companies. ·      Why US partisan politics are likely going to be the next volatility. ·      Why Andrew is excited about the impact of the potential innovation in the US. Tweetable Quotes: ·      “Uncertainty, in general, is the key driver of volatility in the market.”- Andrew Opdyke ·      “As we move through the fourth quarter and the beginning of next year, we could see reacceleration on the inflation numbers.”- Andrew Opdyke Get in Touch with Andrew: ·      LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewopdyke/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewopdyke/) Resources: If you are in or nearing retirement and you want to gain clarity on what questions you should be asking, learn what the biggest retirement myths are, and identify what you can do to achieve peace of mind for your retirement, get started today by requesting our complimentary video course, Four Steps to Secure Your Retirement! To access the course, simply visit https://pomwealth.net/3-keys-to-secure-your-retirementlp/ (POMWealth.net/podcast.)

Thoughts on the Market
Andrew Sheets: Stagflation Demystified

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 4:23


Investor worries over growth and inflation have revived the term stagflation—but with growth indicators historically solid, is it an accurate description?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, October 8th at 2:00 p.m. in London. Near where I live in London, service stations are out of petrol - or to my fellow Americans, the gas stations are out of gas. In Europe, natural gas prices have roughly tripled in the last three months. Year-over-year, Consumer Price Inflation has risen 5.3% in the United States, 5.8% in Poland, 7.4% in Russia, and 9.7% in Brazil. It's not hard to see why one term seems to come up again and again in our conversations with investors: stagflation. Stagflation, broadly, is the idea that you get very weak growth, but also higher inflation together. Yet it's equally hard to miss in these conversations that while this term is widely cited, it's often ill defined. If stagflation means the 1970s, a time of wage price spirals and high unemployment, this clearly isn't it. Unemployment is falling around the world, and inflation markets imply pressures will moderate over time, rather than spiral higher. Market pricing is also very different. Over the last 100 years, the 1970s represented an all-time high in nominal interest rates and an all-time low in equity valuations. Today, it's the opposite. We're near a record low in yields and a record high in those valuations. Instead, what if we say that stagflation is a period where inflation expectations are rising, and growth is slowing? That's an easier, broader definition to apply, but even that hasn't really been happening. In the U.S., market expectations for inflation are roughly where they were in early June. U.S. economic data remains solid. The economic data is a little bit more mixed in Europe, but even here, growth indicators generally remain historically strong. So this clearly isn't a simple story, but we do think there are three takeaways for investors. First, recall that stagflation was also a very hot market topic in 2004/2005. Growth and markets had bounced back sharply in 2003, but by mid 2004, the rate of change on that growth had started to slow. And then energy prices rose. By spring 2005, the market started to worry that it could be the worst of both worlds. In April of that year, U.S. consumer price inflation hit 3.5% while measures of growth stalled. Stagflation graced the cover of the Economist magazine and the editorial pages in the New York Times. Equity valuations fell throughout 2004/2005 even as earnings rose, consistent with the current forecast that my colleague Michael Wilson and our U.S. Equity Strategy team. The second important point is that inflation is already showing up and impacting monetary policy. In just the last three weeks, central banks have increased interest rates by +25bp in New Zealand, +25bp in Russia, +50bp and Peru, +50bp in Poland, +75bp in the Czech Republic and +100bp in Brazil. That's a lot of activity. And all of this is keeping my colleagues busy and also creating opportunity in these markets. Third, while stagflation means different things to different people, past periods of rising inflation and slowing growth have often had one thing in common: higher energy prices. As such, we think some of the best cross-asset hedges for stagflation lie in the energy space. The market is very focused on stagflation; it just hasn't quite decided what that term really means. The 1970s are a long way away from our expectations or market pricing. Scenarios of slower growth and rising inflation clash with our economic forecasts of, well, the opposite. And recent moves in inflation expectations and other growth indicators don't fit this story as nicely as one would otherwise think. Instead, we think investors should focus on three things: 2005 is an interesting and rather recent example of a stagflation scare after a mid-cycle transition. Inflation is impacting central banks, creating movement and opportunity. And finally, the energy sector provides a potentially useful hedge against scenarios where the current disruption is more persistent. Now, with that out of the way, I'm off to find some petrol. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Freedom One-On-One with Jeff Dornik
Biden's Jobless Report is proof that the Democrats are intentionally tanking our economy

Freedom One-On-One with Jeff Dornik

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 28:29


The latest Jobs Report came out, and (not surprisingly) it was disappointing. Less than 200,000 jobs created in the month of September. Team Biden blames the Delta Variant. The truth is much more sinister.Sponsors:- Freedom First Coffee - Drink the coffee of Patriots. Use code JEFF for 10% off at http://freedomfirstcoffee.com - Our Gold Guy - Talk to IRA about whether investing in gold is right for you. Let them know Jeff sent you at http://ourgoldguy.com

WSJ Minute Briefing
U.S. Economy Added 194,000 Jobs Last Month, Slowest Pace of Year

WSJ Minute Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 2:02


Unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% as many workers exited labor force. Afghanistan mosque bombing kills dozens of worshipers. China delivery giant Meituan fined more than $530 million in Beijing's tech crackdown. J.R. Whalen reports. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
What to expect when the Fed tapers

Capital Ideas Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 33:53


While the Federal Reserve stopped just short of tightening policy in its September meeting, its first move is expected later this year. How could it affect today's elevated inflation rate? Are interest rate hikes soon to follow – or still a distant worry? Listen and learn what you need to know as a bond investor. Related: The long unwinding road: Our take on Fed tapering and inflation  For industry-leading insights, support tools and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. The Capital Ideas website is not intended for use outside the U.S. In Canada visit capitalgroup.com/ca for Capital Group insights.

Make Trades Great Again
#65 Get Prepared

Make Trades Great Again

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 38:13


Eric and Andy discuss some ways they use to get prepared for a project. 

Conduit Street Podcast
Elevating Emergency Management

Conduit Street Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 37:15


On the latest episode of the Conduit Street Podcast, Maryland Department of Emergency Management Acting Secretary Russell Strickland joins Kevin Kinnally and Michael Sanderson to discuss the shifting landscape of emergency management. From new and evolving threats to harnessing new tech to build resilience and redundancy, learn why elevating emergency management to Cabinet-status strengthens state/local collaboration, communication, and coordination to advance community emergency preparedness.Last week, the Maryland Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) became the Maryland Department of Emergency Management (MDEM). As previously reported on Conduit Street, the Maryland General Assembly this year passed SB 658, which establishes MDEM as a forward-facing, Cabinet-level entity. The bill also transfers the 9-1-1 Board to the Department.MACo supported the bill, as MDEM will work directly with county emergency management offices to develop scalable, flexible, and adaptable concepts and better align critical roles and responsibilities when disasters strike. This partnership will ensure the continuity of government in the face of an innumerable number of catastrophic events.In addition, as Maryland's 9-1-1 system is a vital part of the State's emergency response and disaster preparedness network, MDEM is the proper entity to help advance the deployment of a statewide NG911 system that our residents expect and deserve.The Conduit Street Podcast is available on major platforms like Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and more. Episodes are also available on MACo's Conduit Street blog.Listen to previous episodes of the Conduit Street Podcast on our website.Useful LinksMaryland Department of Emergency ManagementFollow MDEM on Twitter and FacebookPrevious Conduit Street Coverage: Introducing the Maryland Department of Emergency ManagementCybersecurity Awareness Month – Resources for CountiesNext Generation 9-1-1 (NG911)

Let Me Ruin Your Life
Episode 38: Normalize Unemployment Fraud

Let Me Ruin Your Life

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2021 54:09


This week, Serena announces her long-awaited return to therapy, defends her decision to get Botox at an extremely girlish age, gives financial advice to a fabulously unhinged listener, and does a haul of all the books she has bought recently as her newest coping mechanism. M1 Finance: https://www.m1finance.com/money/ You can find Serena on TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter at @glamdemon2004, and you can follow the podcast Instagram at @letmeruinyourlifepod - DM for questions and requests! --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/let-me-ruin-your-life/support

Primary Vision Network
The Economy - Global Economy Slows as Rates Rise, Q3 Growth Muted in US, Europe's Energy Crisis, China's Geopolitical Moves 10/07/2021 #251

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2021 103:13


***We are pleased to offer new sponsorship opportunities in The Economy, EIA Report and The Frac Spread Count.***Primary Vision Network is covering the hottest topics in energy and the economic implications affecting the US & International Markets. PVN covers the energy sector as well as the full supply chain with a granular focus on "well to wheel" economics.  Get your brand in front of the movers & shakers of the energy industry and align with the industry's most accurate and trusted content. Reach out to Lisa O'Keefe at lisa.okeefe@pvmic.com for more information.

The Chad Benson Show
The fight over raising the debt ceiling continues

The Chad Benson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2021 110:12


The fight over raising the debt ceiling continues. School shooting in Arlington, TX. Dave Chapelle upsets LGBTQ community with new special. Unemployment numbers. LA Dodgers win NL Wild Card. James Bond No Time To Die finally being released. Bill Maher on Joe Scarborough podcast.

Financial Issues
First Time Initial Unemployment Claims Down

Financial Issues

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2021 94:00


Plan Your Federal Retirement Podcast
FERS Federal Fact Check - Should You Collect Unemployment Before Your FERS Pension Check Arrives?

Plan Your Federal Retirement Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2021 4:00


Planning for delays with your first retirement check. https://bit.ly/3DdqG7k 

How to Scale Commercial Real Estate
Don't Be Stupid: On Unemployment, Diversification Strategies, And Real Estate Opportunities With Brian Kasal

How to Scale Commercial Real Estate

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2021 25:02


Many of us naturally make decisions based on what we see in our environment, that it becomes easier to jump in the wagon without thinking much further. Brian Kasal, the CEO and Founder of Fourstar Wealth Advisors, advises us one thing: don't be stupid. In this episode, he explains what he means about that while taking us across the changes in the market in the past year—from unemployment to job stimulus. Brian also talks about diversification strategies for investors, participating in commercial real estate opportunities, and more. He also shares how he is helping take investors off the proverbial cliff of getting in or out at the wrong time and creating a national firm. Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review & share! https://www.brickeninvestmentgroup.com/podcast

The Laura Flanders Show
F-Word: Worker Co-ops Coped with Covid. Why Can't Others?

The Laura Flanders Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 3:01


The F-Word is released bi-weekly featuring timely commentaries by Laura Flanders and guests.October is National Co-op Month.  "Worker co-ops like New Era demonstrate that it's certainly possible to run a successful business while prioritizing safety and treating workers like fellow humans."Flex your media muscles, become a monthly sustaining member for $3, $5, $12 at https://Patreon.com/theLFShow

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!

Unveiling Grace Podcast
UGP 158 - A Weight Has Been Lifted - Richard and Melissa - Part 2

Unveiling Grace Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2021 27:00


Unemployment, health issues, religious shaming - none of it fun stuff, yet it was some of what God used to bring Richard and Melissa out of their performance-based religion and into faith in Jesus. And to them, it was all worth it to have the weight gone, the pressure off, and see the benefits to their health, their spiritual lives, and their marriage. Listen in as they share how they experienced a grace that heals. The same can be true for you.  

Arizona's Morning News
Sharper Point Commentary - Will Mark Brnovich go after unemployment scammers?

Arizona's Morning News

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 1, 2021 1:38


During the pandemic, Arizona gave almost $4.5 billion in unemployment money to scammers — and Jim Sharpe wonders what Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich is doing to get it back. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conduit Street Podcast
Maximizing Public Funds With three+one

Conduit Street Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 1, 2021 33:42


On the latest episode of the Conduit Street Podcast, three+one® Senior Vice President Garrett Macdonald joins Kevin Kinnally and Michael Sanderson to discuss a data-driven approach to help counties maximize the value of every single dollar through the power of liquidity analysis.cashvest by three+one® uses proprietary algorithms to produce data-driven analysis and time-horizon evaluations to empower counties to realize new revenue that will increase stability and maximize liquidity – all while increasing deposit yields. With cashvest by three+one®, local governments, higher Ed institutions, and hospitals can execute cash, operating, and investment management decisions with more confidence and ease.The leadership of three+one® has public, private, higher Ed, and banking experience, which provides a comprehensive perspective on liquidity management. three+one has served entities nationally since 2012, bringing over $300 million in new revenue to the communities it serves.three+one® is endorsed by the National Association of Counties (NACo) and has formal partnerships with the New York State Association of Counties, the Florida Association of Counties, the Virginia Association of Counties, the California State Association of Counties, the Nebraska Association of Counties, the Arizona Association of Counties, and the Washington State Association of Counties.The Conduit Street Podcast is available on major platforms like Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and more. Episodes are also available on MACo's Conduit Street blog.Listen to previous episodes of the Conduit Street Podcast on our website.Useful Linksthree+one® Overviewthree+one® Case Studycashvest® FAQsARPA FAQsVideos and Testimonials from State AssociationscashVest by three+one® Blog

Why Your Bank Sucks
State of New Mexico Unemployment Does To Me What State Unemployment Depts. Did to Millions Since Covid

Why Your Bank Sucks

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 66:56


Just a nice long rant podcast about how the State of New Mexico denied my unemployment claim just like countless thousands of people get denied for little to no reason. I was blamed for not contacting them sooner, when the toll-free number disconnects you if all operators are busy. Despite phone records proving inability to get help from them, and a several dozen list of companies I have sought jobs from and applied for, I was denied my right to get benefits. I discuss the feeling, I discuss how so many are going through this, and I discuss my next step in fighting for me, which in turn will allow me to fight for you! TNB Has recovered nearly $2 Million from big banks back to consumers, and about $500k of it was Zelle fraud! All My Links HERE MY PATREON Page! For as little as $1, you can help James in his fight against big banks. http://patreon.com/NotoriousBanker TheNotoriousBanker.com for detailed info on yours truly, and ways you can follow The Notorious Banker The Notorious Banker is on TikTok - @NotoriousBanker - 5600 FOLLOWERS Sponsors -james@theNotoriousBanker.com - Advertise your business with a growing, cutting edge podcast. Visit our Twitter Page @BankBetterGuy - Bank Advice, humor, observations, deals and VIGILANTE CUSTOMER SERVICE VM - 575-322-4127 (3M MAX) --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/thenotoriousbanker/support

The Chad Benson Show
Latest unemployment numbers

The Chad Benson Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 110:12


Latest unemployment numbers. Oil prices rising. Vote on Biden's infrastructure bill set for today. Judge Frees Britney Spears From Father's Control. Artists defending R Kelly. Man joins search party looking for him. YouTube removes all anti-vax content. Government passes funding through December 3rd.

RecruiterCast
RecruiterCast - Ep 83 - The employment industry + HR's impact on supply chain management

RecruiterCast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 60:23


RecruiterCast - Ep 83 - The employment industry + HR's impact on supply chain management On episode 83 of #RecruiterCast, John and Dave will be chatting about the employment industry and the role that HR plays in supply chain management. Unemployment is at an all-time high; job listings are at an all-time high; it's time we get to the bottom of this.   #recruitercast #livepodcast #recruitercastlive #HR #recruiting #supplychain

Daily Stock Market News

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Thursday, September 30th:- Stocks for the most part were slightly higher yesterday. The S&P snapped a 2-day losing streak closing higher by 0.2% after its worst losing day since May. - Worst week since Feb but the S&P is up for the quarter and on track for its 6th positive quarter in a row.- Today futures are pointing to a slightly higher start.- Jobless Claims at 362,000 higher than 335,000 expected. 3rd rising week in a row.- Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said late Wednesday that the Senate has reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. But the deal won't include raising the debt ceiling or a debt ceiling suspension, the deadline for that is Oct 18th.- Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY) is getting hammering pre-market down more than 18% after reporting steep drop in traffic in August.- CarMax (KMX) is breaking down pre-market after reporting worse than expected earnings. - Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is going a ride pre-market up 7.0% after reports that the company is close to a deal to sell its Ohio factory to Foxconn Technology Group.If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news,  visit https://rockwelltrading.com.#todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

AP Audio Stories
US unemployment claims rise third straight week to 362,000

AP Audio Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 1:27


Dynamic Independence
Massive Unemployment Is Coming - Are You Paying Attention?

Dynamic Independence

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 70:33


We discuss the mass termination that is on the horizon. Vaccine mandates are now going in. Hospitals are going to terminate thousands. Airlines, restaurants, retail services. Massive unemployment is coming, but does the public even pay attention? Also, what are the latest numbers in Israel? Do the numbers of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations reflect the vaccination numbers? And, big tech drops the hammer on vaccine misinformation. All channels without exception will be banned for talking about vaccines in a negative manner. Is this the new ministry of truth? We ask the questions.

The Rick Roberts Show
Rick Roberts: We Revisit Our Interview With President Trump...

The Rick Roberts Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2021 15:59


The border. COVID. Mandates. Afghanistan. Taxes. Inflation. Unemployment. All Walter Biden had to do was just leave things alone, and this country would be in great shape. Instead, Walter has screwed up almost everything in just eight months. Rick thought it would be a good time to reflect on where all this started. We replay our interview with President Trump from April of 2020, at the start of the pandemic. In your opinion, who's better qualified to deal with all the crises we face? The Rick Roberts Show is on NewsTalk 820 WBAP ... (Photo Courtesy of WFAA) See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Global Politico
Union leader Sharan Burrow: How to convince governments to actually change

The Global Politico

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2021 21:09


Health workers who don't get paid if they contract Covid-19. Over 6,000 migrant workers dead after helping with World Cup construction in the Middle East. As the head of the world's largest union confederation, it's Sharan Burrow's priority to protect workers against abuses like these and hold offending governments accountable. But as she tells host Ryan Heath, she's walking a tightrope between convincing governments to change and keeping her seat at the table. Sharan Burrow is the General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation.  Ryan Heath is the host of the "Global Insider" podcast and newsletter.  Olivia Reingold produces “Global Insider.”  Irene Noguchi edits “Global Insider” and is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Recovery Radio
Rebuilding After Addiction, Unemployment, and a Criminal Record

Recovery Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2021 49:51


Today's episode is about the power of second chances and, specifically, second-chance employment. Ty Reed speaks with Zach about his former life as an award-winning salesperson for a Fortune 500 company who found himself unemployed, addicted to meth, and living homeless on the streets of Seattle. Now a speaker on the topic of recovery and employment, Ty provides career coaching to individuals recovering from drug & alcohol abuse and homelessness through his nonprofit, Recovery Career Services. Ty and Zach talk about imposter syndrome, the need for compassion and extending forgiveness, and specific ways employers can create mental health conscious work environments. Visit Ty's website at www.recoveryandwork.org to learn more.

John and Ken on Demand
John & Ken Show Hour 1 (09/27)

John and Ken on Demand

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2021 35:51


John got randomly selected by TSA at the airport over the weekend. Chris Wallace of Fox News grilled DHS Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas on the border crisis over the weekend. Unemployment levels in California were at their highest levels in 5 months last week.

Inside Hoffmaster’s Head
Celebrity Memory Loss

Inside Hoffmaster’s Head

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2021 28:42


Jim can't think of actors names, and worries about Unemployment. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/jim-hoffmaster/support

Kansas Reflector Podcast
Kansas unemployment modernization, fraud update

Kansas Reflector Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2021 9:23


Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Kansas Department of Labor has been overwhelmed by unemployment claims, both real and fraudulent. The beleaguered unemployment insurance computer system and the record volume of activity created drastic delays and invited criminal actors to submit false claims. A recent audit estimated the state paid out $700 million dollars in fraudulent benefits, about half from federal and half from state funds. This episode of the Kansas Reflector Podcast examines an early September meeting of the Kansas Unemployment Compensation, Modernization and Improvement Council to see where progress is being made and what questions are still being asked.

Bill Handel on Demand
The Bill Handel Show - 8a - Newsom Signs Several Major Laws & HOTN [LE]

Bill Handel on Demand

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2021 7:43


Governor Gavin Newsom has been a busy man, signing several major laws yesterday. Wayne Resnick, Jennifer Jones Lee and Brian Berumen join Bill for the Late Edition of Handel on the News, where the group talks about news topics that include: The search for Brian Laundrie continues, an L.A. County sheriff's unit has been accused of targeting political enemies and vocal critics, and U.S. unemployment claims rise again for the 2nd straight week.

Affirmation Babe
Overcoming Unemployment (Manifest Your Perfect Job)

Affirmation Babe

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2021 3:18


The right position is out there for you. There is an abundance of opportunities for you to contribute your unique and valuable skills.

The NPR Politics Podcast
Cutting Unemployment Aid Didn't Get Many Unemployed Americans Back To Work

The NPR Politics Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2021 14:03


Some twelve million Americans saw their expanded unemployment assistance expire Monday as the delta variant throttles the nation's economic recovery. Research from the states that halted the aid programs earlier this summer suggests the end of benefits will hurt spending and won't do much to get people back into the workforce.So far, neither Congress nor the Biden administration are pushing to renew the benefits.This episode: White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Ayesha Rascoe, and chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at nprpolitics@npr.orgJoin the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.