Podcasts about Black swan

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026? In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come. In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss: How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon The strategic importance of the Gulf states Iran's nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8  Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Show NotesEmergency management often explains breakdowns through the lens of surprise, yet many of the hazards shaping our communities were visible long before impact. Todd and Dan unpack the difference between Black Swan events, which are genuinely rare and difficult to predict, and Gray Rhinos, which are highly probable, high-impact threats that are acknowledged but repeatedly deferred. The discussion explores how normalcy bias, political incentives, and institutional design can lead to the normalization of known risks and why mislabeling Gray Rhinos as Black Swans undermines resilience and professional credibility.Topics covered include:* How Black Swan events are defined and why they are often misunderstood* The concept of Gray Rhinos and how visible risks become politically inconvenient* Why emergency management defaults to the language of surprise* Normalcy bias and the danger of mistaking familiarity for safety* The gap between identifying risk and acting on it* Why mitigation and capacity building remain undervalued* How governance incentives shape preparedness outcomesKey TakeawayMost disasters are not shocking because they were unpredictable; they are devastating because they were postponed. Emergency management succeeds not by reacting well to surprise, but by refusing to ignore what is already charging straight at us. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Send us a textTwo conspiracy-obsessed middle-aged men kidnap the high-powered producer of a minor podcast, convinced that he is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth. On Episode 698 of Trick or Treat Radio we continue our annual December Double Feature Cram Jam tradition! We kick it off with the films from two of our favorite directors; Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos, and Caught Stealing from Darren Aronofsky! We also battle our old nemesis Tek Issues, react to trailers for the films Man Finds Tape and Supergirl, and find out what the most horrifying sight in a gym is. So grab your tin foil hat, don't forget to bring along your cat, and strap on for the world's most dangerous podcast!Stuff we talk about: Big Media Mergers, Netflix, WB, Gremlins, Mortal Kombat, The Conjuring, It, Final Destination, corporate takeovers, Michigan J Frog, Nightmare City, OBS vs. XSplit, Malignant, Nikki Sixx, Idle Hands, Pieces, Man Finds Tape, Found Footage, Supergirl, James Gunn, Blondie, Craig Gillespie, Fright Night, I Tonya, Green Room, Anton Yelchin, Lars and the Real Girl, Roman Chairs, Cum Town, working out, swinging and dinging in the gym, Stavros Halkias, Emma Stone, Full Throttle Cooking with Craig, Save the Green Planet, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos, VistaVision, One-Eyed Jacks, Aidan Delbis, Stanley Kubrick, Carol Kane, conspiracy theories, The Fountain, The Wrestler, Requiem for a Dream, Black Swan, Mother!, Regina King, Things to do in Denver When You're Dead, Quentin Tarantino, Matt Smith, Zoe Kravitz, Clerks, Austin Butler, Charlie Huston, Good Boy, Shelby Oaks, Emma Stone to the Bone, Massachusetts, Bee Gees, laying pipe and swinging dongs, Schneider-Man, and The Cum Town Rub.Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/trickortreatradioJoin our Discord Community: discord.trickortreatradio.comSend Email/Voicemail: mailto:podcast@trickortreatradio.comVisit our website: http://trickortreatradio.comStart your own podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=386Use our Amazon link: http://amzn.to/2CTdZzKFB Group: http://www.facebook.com/groups/trickortreatradioTwitter: http://twitter.com/TrickTreatRadioFacebook: http://facebook.com/TrickOrTreatRadioYouTube: http://youtube.com/TrickOrTreatRadioInstagram: http://instagram.com/TrickorTreatRadioSupport the show

The US Air Force is at a turning point in 21st century warfare and in danger of whistling past the graveyard if they fail to take notice and action on the emerging Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMA). The era of manned combat aircraft is coming to a close. The era of manned bombers with gravity bombs is over. The era of fixed site nuclear missiles is in great peril. The era of hyper-velocity missiles whether high parabola of IRBM/ICBM or Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) glide vehicles. If the pilot mafia doesn't do something about what is coming, the result will be cataclysmic. The Pentagon will not do the right thing, regretfully. References: A Concise History of the U.S. Air Force Jeffrey J. Smith Tomorrow's Air Force: Tracing the Past, Shaping the Future Seth J. Frantzman Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence, and the Battle for the Future Paul Scharre Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War David Hambling Swarm Troopers: How Small Drones Will Conquer the World Garrett Graff Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government's Secret Plan to Save Itself--While the Rest of Us Die Paul Ozorak Underground Structures of the Cold War: The World Below Daniel Ellsberg The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Nassim Taleb Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Mark Gunzinger & Bryan Clark Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defense Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

In wekelijkse update van Baanbrekende Businessmodellen praten we je in nog geen tien minuten praten we je bij over het laatste nieuws uit de wereld van business. Met deze keer: Maxime Lubbers van Techleap. ☑️ Rapport Wennink: Nederland moet nú investeren Ex-ASML-topman Wennink stelt dat Nederland binnen 100 dagen grote stappen moet zetten. Hij pleit voor 150 tot 187 miljard aan investeringen en stabiel, voorspelbaar beleid. Snellere vergunningen, meer technisch talent en betaalbare energie zijn volgens Wennink cruciaal voor de welvaart van ons land. ☑️ Pieter Kemps: warme intro's zijn goud waard De investeerder stelt dat Europa het belang van warme introducties onderschat. In ecosystemen waar dit wél werkt, groeien startups sneller en sterker. Elke snelle connectie kan bepalend zijn voor succes. ☑️ The Black Swan: succes komt uit voorbereiding Auteur Nassim Nicholas Taleb beschrijft dat echte doorbraken ontstaan door omgaan met het onverwachte, niet door perfecte plannen. Ondernemers moeten dus vooral leren navigeren in onzekerheid.

In wekelijkse update van Baanbrekende Businessmodellen praten we je in nog geen tien minuten praten we je bij over het laatste nieuws uit de wereld van business. Met deze keer: Maxime Lubbers van Techleap.☑️ Rapport Wennink: Nederland moet nú investerenEx-ASML-topman Wennink stelt dat Nederland binnen 100 dagen grote stappen moet zetten. Hij pleit voor 150 tot 187 miljard aan investeringen en stabiel, voorspelbaar beleid. Snellere vergunningen, meer technisch talent en betaalbare energie zijn volgens Wennink cruciaal voor de welvaart van ons land.☑️ Pieter Kemps: warme intro’s zijn goud waardDe investeerder stelt dat Europa het belang van warme introducties onderschat. In ecosystemen waar dit wél werkt, groeien startups sneller en sterker. Elke snelle connectie kan bepalend zijn voor succes.☑️ The Black Swan: succes komt uit voorbereidingAuteur Nassim Nicholas Taleb beschrijft dat echte doorbraken ontstaan door omgaan met het onverwachte, niet door perfecte plannen. Ondernemers moeten dus vooral leren navigeren in onzekerheid.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The holiday season always makes me think of ballet and how it is both a horrifying and beautiful dance. In this episode, I explore Black Swan (2010) and its portrayal of perfectionism. Mental Health is Horrifying is hosted by Candis Green, Registered Psychotherapist and owner of Many Moons Therapy...............................................................Show Notes:Winter Solstice Enchanted EveJoin me on December 18 for a cozy online evening of ritual, tarot, and collective dreaming for the winter solstice. Set aside some time at this magical moment in the wheel of the year, as we travel into the psyche with tarot, dream journeying, and intention setting for the coming winter months. Want to work together? I offer 1:1 psychotherapy both virtually (Ontario) and in-person (Toronto), along with tarot, horror, and dreamwork services (anywhere my bat signal reaches), both individually and through my group program, the Final Girls Club. Podcast artwork by Chloe Hurst at Contempo Mint

Legendary filmmaker Darren Aronofsky and cinematographer Matthew Libatique, ASC, LPS, join us to reflect on their three decades of creative partnership: from “Pi,” “Requiem for a Dream,” “Black Swan,” and “The Whale,” to their newest collaboration, “Caught Stealing.” In this wide-ranging conversation, they discuss the evolution of their visual language, how technology continues to reshape the craft, and the inspirations behind the kinetic, East-Village-in-the-'90s aesthetic of “Caught Stealing.” And as the industry stands on the brink of profound transformation, Aronofsky shares why he believes the future is full of opportunities for new kinds of innovative storytelling. “I think how we make films is about to change more than any other time in history. And there's many ways that can go, many possibilities. So I think for storytellers, it's really exciting because there's a lot of discovery ahead of us. There's the potential for lots of very specific, individual types of films. But I think there's an absolute need for storytellers to be inventive and to be looking forward.” —Darren Aronofsky, Director and Producer, “Caught Stealing” Be sure to check out “Caught Stealing,” now streaming on Netflix, in Dolby Vision® and Dolby Atmos®. Please subscribe to Dolby Creator Talks wherever you get your podcasts. You can also check out the video for this episode on YouTube. Learn more about Sundance Collab here. Learn more about the Dolby Creator Lab and check out Dolby.com. Connect with Dolby on Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, or LinkedIn.

There's milk everywhere: more milk in the U.S., Europe and New Zealand than a year ago, soft Class IV, and Class III futures that could slip into the $13s once you plug in today's spot cheese and whey. With a long milk wave crashing over the dairy industry, will farmers start culling cows and leaving stalls empty? Inside the episode, the team churns through: Why strong balance sheets, paid-down debt and high cow values could delay a production pullback How lower feed costs shift the breakeven – but can't fully offset falling milk checks Why Western and cheese-focused regions like the Pacific Northwest, California and Idaho may struggle first How WPC 80, WPI and clear whey proteins have become the lone bulls – and why capacity constraints limit the industry's response Why there are limits to what customers can pay for whey, and where substitution is already happening It's a barn full of bears on butter, cheese and fluid milk, but the protein complex is still flexing. The question is how long that can last? Tune in to The Milk Check episode 88: One bull in a barn full of bears to hear how our traders are navigating a market that's bearish on volume but still bullish on protein. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to The Milk Check. It is December 5th. We’re gonna talk about markets today. And rather than boring you and having the same conversation we had three weeks ago, everything is still bearish. There’s milk everywhere. There’s milk all over the U.S. There’s milk all over Europe. There’s milk all over New Zealand. There’s a whole bunch more milk this year than last year. Things are long. It’s very likely things are gonna get longer before they get shorter. Today we have some of our usual suspects. My brother Gus has joined us today. We’ve got Josh White, we’ve got Joe Maixner, we’ve got Diego Carvallo. And, of course, myself. Looking forward to a great conversation. So, rather than discussing how bearish we can be on these markets, my question, and I’m gonna start by throwing this question at my brother, Gus, is Gus, how long do you think it’s gonna take for dairy farmers to start culling cows and for this milk [00:01:00] production to slow down? Gus Jacoby: I feel like milk price and farm economics are completely contingent on that and how bad those farm economics get with respect to the milk price. Class III is still relatively high. Obviously, Class IV is pretty poor right now. The way I see it, dairymen, at this moment in time, still have fairly strong balance sheets. So, the recent low prices haven’t affected ’em all that much. So, I don’t expect their behavior with respect to culling and whatnot to change. But I think in five, six months from now, assuming that the milk price is at or lower, and quite frankly, I think Class III probably does need to get a bit lower, you’ll start to see some of that behavior change. If I had to guess, either as early as early summer, but as late as maybe mid-fall, if farm economics don’t change, we’ll start to see dairymen begin to leave stalls open. I mean, they’re gonna cull a cow, collect that beef revenue that they can grab, and not necessarily buy the expensive heifer. Ted Jacoby III: You’re thinking it’s gonna take about six months for dairy farmers [00:02:00] to get to the point where they feel like they need to increase the amount of cows they’re selling in order to meet their cashflow needs? Gus Jacoby: That’s my best guess. And again, that can be either expedited or slowed down depending on where the milk price goes. Ted Jacoby III: Corn prices have really come down this year. Do you think the lower feed prices have lowered where that break even point is, or how low we need to go in milk price in order to really send those signals in a strong way? Gus Jacoby: Certainly, feed prices being lower are gonna be helpful to the farm economic model. This becomes a milk price discussion. If the cheese price continues to have that downward pressure and gets low enough, those feed prices won’t be low enough. It’s always related to their inputs. And certainly, cheap feed helps their cause to extend growth in the milk production model. Ted Jacoby III: Right now, on December 5th, the Class III prices for the first quarter are right around, let’s call it $15.50, but if you use today’s cheese price on the spot market at the CME in today’s whey price, you’re probably looking at something closer to $14, 14 and a quarter. [00:03:00] Is that low enough or do we need to go lower? Gus Jacoby: It’s low enough. But not low to expedite anything. Maybe that takes us into the late summer, and remember, it depends on where we’re talking here in the country. Milk production costs are different depending on where you exist in the country. And also payouts are a lot different in a lot of places, depending on where you exist in the country. So, some regions might struggle sooner than later. Ted Jacoby III: Which regions do you think are gonna struggle first? Gus Jacoby: The West, Pacific Northwest, I think California, areas like Idaho that are strongly cheese based. If you’re paying on a Class III price and it stabilizes, which I don’t anticipate here, then perhaps some of those regions might hold on longer. My guess is predicated on the forecast of Class III going a bit lower. Ted Jacoby III: I guess I’d have to agree with that ’cause I don’t think $14 a hundredweight is enough. Because we’re still in front of Christmas, and I think the market’s probably gonna get worse before it gets better. My hunch is we’re gonna see $13 milk this year. We’re gonna see it in Class IV, and we may be already [00:04:00] seeing it in Class IV as soon as December. I think we’re gonna see a 13 handle in Class III, probably most of the first quarter. Gus Jacoby: If you’ve got a Class III at 13, and Class IV holds as low as it is, which I would expect certainly in the first half of the year, and then you have your standard freight and other deducts in those milk checks, dairymen are now getting to an area that is very adverse. Ted Jacoby III: Even though we’re talking about really low prices, I think there’s a lot of dairy farmers out there that are in a pretty healthy place. Gus Jacoby: I would agree. Ted Jacoby III: They’re healthy in two ways. One, I think that many of them have been able to take the last two years and really pay down their debt. And so, they’re in a really good spot financially, just on the balance sheet alone. But the second thing is those cows, they’re worth twice what they were worth three years ago. And so, not only have they paid down their debt, but if they need to borrow more, they’ve got more collateral to borrow against because those cows are usually the collateral for the banks when the banks lend dairy farmers money. It’s [00:05:00] usually the cows and the land. My hunch is that this may go on longer than we expect because of how healthy dairy farmers are financially today. Not saying they’ll be healthy in four or five months, but they’re healthy today. And because of how much bankers are probably willing to lend them based on those balance sheets. Gus Jacoby: I agree that the balance sheets are strong at the moment, even after a couple tough months. But I would also add, that that can change fairly quickly if the milk price gets low enough. And it’s certainly a ratio of farm economics over a certain period of time and milk price. If it gets low enough and makes those farm economics adverse enough, it can expedite the issue, which is a plausible scenario right now. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. I would agree with that. I think the hardest thing, especially when you have a falling market like we do right now, is to try and figure out exactly where the bottom is. About a month ago, the bottom was about a $1.40. Well, guess what? Cheese price is already below a $1.40 Now, we’re hearing it’s gonna be [00:06:00] somewhere in the $1.20s. What I’m scared is we’re gonna get to the $1.20s, and somebody’s gonna start talking about maybe we need to go into the teens. I don’t know if we’re gonna go that low, but we’re definitely in that scenario right now, where you have a market that’s falling and nobody has a really good feel for where that bottom is. Gus Jacoby: I agree. Cheese and butter right now, their outlook over the next six to eight months does not look good. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. You mentioned butter. Joe, I’ll ask you: we’re below a $1.50 in butter. Butter feels like maybe it’s caught a temporary floor. Is this a temporary floor or could we stabilize here for the next six months? Joe Maixner: I think we’ve hit a temporary floor, but I don’t think it’s the lowest we’ll see over the next 90 days. I think that cream seems to be in balance, even after Thanksgiving, and I think it’s kept a nice spot in the market where people are willing to buy, those that hadn’t already put contracts on for next year are seeing the 2026 numbers and they’re looking at that against their budgets and blocking volume up for next year. A [00:07:00] lot of first half volume’s already been booked. We’re just seeing more activity. We’ve hit that level of support. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, you mentioned cream. Gus, I’m gonna go back to you. We had some really ugly cream multiples the first half of last year. Have we increased churn capacity, and do we expect those multiples to be just as bad this year or have we increased churn capacity enough so that maybe they won’t quite get so bad? Gus Jacoby: We have increased churn capacity, certainly. I don’t know if it’s enough. Some dairymen around the country are feeding their rations a bit different and getting a little bit less butterfat out of the milk. I don’t think that’s enough, yet, to make too much change. I will anticipate having some very low multiples through the holidays and the spring flush. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Diego, I’m gonna switch gears and come to you. We just talked about U.S. milk production. Gus thinks it’ll take about six months to turn. I hate to be really pessimistic, but my gut, and I just can’t shake this gut, is it’s gonna take longer than usual this time around. And we may see it go well past nine months before we see a real turn. [00:08:00] We may see the number get better simply because we’re measuring against strength, but that doesn’t mean we actually see a change in trend. What about Europe and some of the other milking regions in the world, is it gonna take that long us to see some changes in milk production in those regions? Diego Carvallo: If you just go to the fundamentals and you analyze that the European farmer usually has a smaller scale, and that means that their costs tend to be a little bit on the higher end. They do not have access to capital as there is in the U.S. There’s more restrictions when it comes to environmental, and overall I would say they have more headwinds than the U.S. So, if you add to all of those headwinds, the price headwind, the reaction on milk production to lower prices should be faster than in the U.S. The same applies to South America. But we’ve talked a lot about Chinese production, we know that in that country, there are way more things to take into account. Ted Jacoby III: [00:09:00] So, we’ve been talking a lot about the supply side today. We’re just overwhelming supply on the butter side; we’re overwhelming demand to a lesser extent, but still on the cheese side. Josh, protein still tends to be the shining star. But are we getting to a point where we’re starting to get some pushback on protein prices? And is that going to continue to be the lone bull in an overall bearish dairy market, or do we need to be concerned there too? Josh White: I don’t think we’re getting pushback at the prices quite yet. Does that mean I think that these prices are palatable over the long term? I’m unsure. But what we are seeing right now is lack of availability and no quick ability by the European market or the U.S. market to scale production to meet the demand, which means that ultimately, the demand for WPC 80 and WPI and then some of the more value-added proteins, particularly in the whey complex, like the clear WPIs, the acidified products and others, the demand is outpacing our ability to supply it. What that’s [00:10:00] doing is forcing utilization segments or customers that can’t compete in terms of price for that available supply to look to alternatives. We’re starting to see more and more of that. As a commodity trader, we expect that to happen quicker than it does. So, already in early 2025, we were looking towards MPCs, casein-related products and others to pick up some of that demand because they’re much lower value. And I don’t think that the average customer in the market that’s using whey proteins fully recognize the functional differences between whey proteins and milk proteins. And they certainly don’t realize that milk protein concentrate has whey protein in it. Generally speaking, the average consumer doesn’t know the difference in these products. That’s not a fault of theirs. Particularly going into CPG applications and further processing, this is an ingredient. An ingredient that has a lot of label recognition and popularity right now for all the reasons we’ve talked about in prior podcasts: GLP-1 driven demand, [00:11:00] health and wellness movements globally, a lot of other reasons. Is that an early indication that enough time has now passed that the relative value of whey protein above the competing, but still quite valuable proteins in the dairy complex, are gonna result in substitution both substitution within the dairy category to whey protein to milk protein concentrates to micellar casein to WPC 70, also known as WPPC, whey protein phospholipid concentrate (WPPC) ProCream. There’s a lot of different names for these products. That’s likely to happen. But it also, unfortunately, might result in a lot of categories pushing to non-dairy proteins. There’s a lot of information out there, things put on by ADPI and others talking about the protein power of dairy and how digestible it is. How high quality it is for your conversion rate, why it’s such a popular thing. But if you can’t get supply, you’re forced to look to alternatives. And so, we’re starting to see some of that [00:12:00] happen. So, a couple things that I’ve heard anecdotally in the market over the past few weeks in particular, but it’s been happening over the last few months are: get us samples of milk protein concentrate. One of our customers is suspending a certain SKU on the shelf because they can’t get the supply. This price simply won’t work for our application. So, we won’t buy this product at above this price. So, we are triggering some thresholds. And triggering thresholds is gonna have some type of balancing result in the industry. Whether that’s enough to support the milk protein side of the equation, I don’t know. We have a limit to the ability to respond to this demand. You have to order equipment, you have to get the bank lending, you’ve gotta get the design. It takes a long time to increase capacity. That’s all gonna come into play and impact this market and the balance of this market in 2026. Now, if you’re asking me, is my gut that we hold these high prices or even higher prices without some reversal in the price [00:13:00] action for whey proteins in 2026? I’m not ready to say that it’s just here or higher in 26, but is it here or higher in the first quarter? Absolutely. Is it here higher in the second quarter, probably. Is it here or higher after that? I become a little bit skeptical. And to be clear, that’s not because the demand isn’t there right now. The demand feels like it’s there. I just don’t know how the market balances it out without pushing the price just too high in the short term for the market to digest it and pass it through. I also think that when you’re talking about the dairymen and you’re talking about the cheese makers, there is two different classes here. There is the class of those that make whey proteins and the class of those that do not. That has a material impact on profitability throughout the supply chain. Additionally, we’ve got a lot of milk in the U.S. We’ve got a lot of milk in the world right now, and the milk in the Northern hemisphere altogether is only gonna increase from here through the first half of [00:14:00] the year. That milk is gonna need to be processed. The incremental milk production will result in incremental whey protein availability, which means that those whey solids from cheese processors they have to find a market. If you can’t make the valuable product of WPC 80 and WPI, you have to explore the other alternatives, which are simply not experiencing the robust demand of those two categories. Sweet whey powder, whey protein concentrate 34% (WPC 34) and some of these other products, they have a limit to what people are willing to pay. History tells us, at least for sweet whey powder, we’re testing those limits. Ted Jacoby III: For sweet whey powder, we are, the question is, is this happening for whey protein? And that’s a harder one to answer. Josh White: Absolutely. Ted Jacoby III: I did some back of the envelope math. As a country, we produce 8% to 9% more milk in May on a daily basis than we do in November. If half of that milk goes into cheese, we’ll produce 8% more cheese and 8% perhaps more whey protein. The solids change, too. So, maybe it’s not a full [00:15:00] 8%, but is 8% enough to tip the scale on whey protein demand? And I don’t know, given the demand complex for whey, I think for cheese it’s gonna feel very burdensome. I think for butter, it would probably feel pretty burdensome. The butter market we’re kind of used to it because of the way the demand curve looks, but I just don’t know when it comes to whey, if that’s enough to put some pressure on this market and bring those prices down. Josh White: Well, it depends on what you’re talking about because you could argue that the WPC and WPI facilities are bringing in outside whey solids. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. As their own milk and their own whey generation increases seasonally, that’s gonna push whey solids back to somebody else. So, all 8% in your hypothesis there, I doubt contributes to an 8% increase in whey protein production. Because the available capacity isn’t there? Josh White: Correct. Now, is there production efficiencies that are still gonna be gained? Are there those out there that are expanding a bit [00:16:00] that we’re unaware of? Are there orders for new equipment in the system that might be closer to realization than we think? All possible. And we can’t ignore Europe. I don’t feel like I can adequately represent what the expansion model looks like in Europe right now for whey proteins. What I can say is that at least for the U.S. and Europe, our internal demand is currently absorbing a greater percentage of our production than ever before, and that’s leaving the rest of the world that was buying product from those two markets, having to search for that protein elsewhere. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Josh White: And, this is being a bit over generic, but the rest of the world likely will be more willing to substitute than the U.S. or the European consumer to other products. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree with that. Everybody in our office is just leaning really bearish, just about everybody we talk to seems to be leaning really bearish. Josh White: Outside of Black Swan events: major trade disruptions, major production impacts that we can’t predict. If you’ve [00:17:00] been in the dairy industry long enough, you know to never bet against the dairymen and their ability to make milk. But it’s gotta be on the radar that the competitive dollars for those animals I don’t think has ever been as lucrative as it is right now. And those animals that they’re currently milking are older then typically they want them to be. So, if we shift this cycle quickly enough and violently enough, and that’s price, at what moment do we get surprised at what that residual response is? How many pent up animals find their way to slaughter? How quickly that could happen. And I think generally speaking, most of us would bet that the calf inside the dairy cow right now is worth enough to wait. And so, we’ve gotta get through the first half of the Northern Hemisphere season before we see much of an animal response. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a fair comment. Dairy farmers, especially the big financially astute ones, there’s a math equation. It’s like, this is my revenue [00:18:00] from milk. This is my maybe revenue from biofuels or wherever else. They have revenue streams from a cow that’s giving milk every day. This is the cost to maintain that cow. The variable cost feed, for example, being the big one. Well, when you’re getting $20, a hundredweight from your milk versus $13, a hundredweight for your milk. That equation has changed quite a bit, whereas the exit price, what you’re gonna get if you sell the cow hasn’t changed at all, which means your math equation, the exit possibility has definitely gone up. It’s more profitable to sell this cow than it used to be. Josh White: History tells us that the exits of the older dairymen and the smaller dairies doesn’t really change based on economic conditions, it’s relatively stable. Maybe there’s some risk that we have some pent up exits and some risk that it’s never been a better time to retire. Mm-hmm. And you get some smaller dairies that decide to exit. That doesn’t move the needle. Ted Jacoby III: I would suspect. You’re right. We’ll see. Josh White: One [00:19:00] quick remark that’s important is the outlook on demand. It seems like the market is very, very bearish because supply is outpacing demand globally and it’s in every major milk shed. But demand by import regions has been pretty good. Mm-hmm. They’ve been buying year over year, more dairy products. At the same time, I don’t believe there’s any region in the world that’s currently sitting on cumbersome overall dairy stocks, whether that’s from the import regions or the production regions. Everyone seems to be quite aware that you gotta stay in front of this. I don’t know how to interpret that. On one hand, you could say that based on some of the economic outlooks, globally, we shouldn’t be expecting things to get better. We should be expecting them to get at best the same or possibly even worse. On the other side of that equation is import dairy consumption and demand is growing and continues to grow, so it might be a painful period, but the long-term [00:20:00] outlook remains pretty good, and we just overreacted to some of the demand signals that we have. Credit to the dairymen in the world, being able to respond to signals that we needed more fat, not even a year ago. That whey protein demand’s good. I mean, the market has responded, but overall we’re not talking about an oversupply situation because demand’s bad. If you go granularly, like U.S. cheese consumption, doesn’t look real great right now. The outlook for overall economic health, I’m not an expert in that area, but I’m not seeing a lot of people talking about a rosy 12 to 24 months there. So, yeah, I think generally speaking, it’s easy to be bearish, but maybe that’s one thing to pay attention. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned demand. I happened to be involved in a conversation yesterday with an equities trader and his comment about stock valuations, equities, valuations, which was really a demand comment, was, I’m just waiting to see what Christmas sales do. I think there’s a lot of people out there right now that are trying to get a feel for what’s [00:21:00] the long-term demand or the 2026 demand perspective, and I think a lot of them are gonna judge what it really is based on how this holiday season plays out. All right guys. Hey, thanks for a great conversation. I apologize to all the dairy farmers out there that I couldn’t give you any better news, but hang in there that good news will come eventually. That’s right.

Schon vor einigen Jahren wollten wir Darren Aronofskys BLACK SWAN im Podcast besprechen und intern ist es fast schon legendär wie häufig wir die Besprechung immer und immer wieder verschoben haben. Aber nun ist es soweit. Teresa geht gemeinsam mit André und Chris in die Analyse des preisträchtigen Psychothrillers. Weiter geht es dann Mitte Januar mit neuen Folgen eures Lieblingshorrorfilmpodcasts!

In the future near-peer and peer fight, salvo competition will be the preeminent means by which one country will kinetically overwhelm the other in a fight. I discuss the way the West is in an existential hazard of being woefully under-prepared to meet the threat if Western forces go toe to toe with regional hegemons in the East or West. The US is NOT prepared for the war of leakers in which the inadequate missile defense systems and strategy now deployed will be overwhelmed if it enters a war of choice with China or Russia. It isn't simply the peer competitors but the smaller players like North Korea and Yemen are demonstrating that the US and its allies can't cash the checks they boast about. Once again, the US should stand down, reassess, re-calibrate and stop thinking defense is a four letter word. References: Winning The Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air And Missile Defenses The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age Space Based Interceptor Sizing Methodology Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Books: Garrett Graff Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Government's Secret Plan to Save Itself--While the Rest of Us Die Paul Ozorak Underground Structures of the Cold War: The World Below Daniel Ellsberg The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Nassim Taleb Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Mark Gunzinger & Bryan Clark Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defense Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare My Substack Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

“I just want to be perfect.” Join Ian & Megs for our 308th episode as we step into the mirror-lined, razor-edged, emotionally fraught world of Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan (2010). Lace up your shoes, crack your knuckles, and prepare to descend into obsession, duality, and tutu-level trauma. This week we discuss: Natalie Portman's extraordinary, Oscar-winning transformation — fragile ingénue, ruthless perfectionist, and fractured psyche in one. Mila Kunis as the effortless chaos to Nina's claustrophobic control — real threat or manifested paranoia? Aronofsky's visual language: reflections, doubles, textures, and body horror. How does he trap the audience inside Nina's deteriorating mind? The film's depiction of artistic pressure and perfectionism — when does ambition turn pathological? What other film could we not stop referencing whilst watching this film Megs questions the ballet accuracy (and the wildly inaccurate bits) — including the culture, the training, and the psychological toll Ian asks if the film does a good enough job educating the audience about ballet to make the film accessible We talk about how Black Swan functions as a companion piece to The Wrestler — obsession as both craft and self-destruction. The boundaries between reality and hallucination — when does the film stop being literal? Or was it metaphor all along? We examine the film's treatment of sexuality, identity, and agency through the lens of duality: White Swan vs. Black Swan, innocence vs. corruption, submission vs. liberation. The final performance — triumphant, tragic, transcendent? We unpack the film's unforgettable ending. And finally, whether Black Swan is the Best Film Ever — or simply one of the most hypnotic psychological thrillers of the 21st century. Become a Patron of this podcast and support the BFE at https://www.patreon.com/BFE. We are extremely thankful to our following Patrons for their most generous support: Juleen from It Goes Down In The PM Hermes Auslander James DeGuzman Synthia Shai Bergerfroind Ariannah Who Loves BFE The Most Andy Dickson Chris Pedersen Duane Smith (Duane Smith!) Randal Silva Nate The Great Rev Bruce Cheezy (with a fish on a bike) Richard Ryan Kuketz Dirk Diggler Stew from the Stew World Order podcast NorfolkDomus John Humphrey's Right Foot Timmy Tim Tim Aashrey Paul Komoroski Buy some BFE merch at https://my-store-b4e4d4.creator-spring.com/. Massive thanks to Lex Van Den Berghe for the use of Mistake by Luckydog. Catch more from Lex's new band, The Maids of Honor, at https://soundcloud.com/themaidsofhonor Also, massive thanks to Moonlight Social for our age game theme song. You can catch more from them at https://www.moonlightsocialmusic.com/

That Solo Life, Episode 324: Celebrating and Leveraging Your Milestone Moments Episode Summary This special bonus episode of "That Solo Life" features a rebroadcast from the Smart Talk Series, where host Melissa Vela-Williamson interviews our very own Karen Swim. Dive into a powerful conversation about the importance of celebrating personal and professional milestones. Karen shares insights from her unique career journey, which started in healthcare and sales before she found her calling in public relations. The discussion explores how to reframe challenges, like the COVID-19 pandemic, as "Black Swan" events that can open doors to fresh starts and significant growth. Listeners will learn actionable strategies for building a solution-oriented mindset, the importance of self-promotion, and why every solo practitioner needs to recognize their own value. This episode is packed with real talk and practical advice for navigating your career with confidence and optimism. Episode Highlights (02:35) A Winding Path: Karen discusses her unconventional journey into the world of public relations. (07:43) The Power of Positivity: Learn why being solution-oriented and optimistic is crucial for business success. (08:29) Tuning Out Toxicity: Actionable tips for consciously curating the content you consume and protecting your mindset. (13:34) A Milestone Moment: How the COVID-19 pandemic became a catalyst for career transformation and new perspectives. (16:30) Embracing Black Swan Events: Turning unexpected challenges into opportunities for growth and reinvention. (21:46) Community for Indies: A look inside Solo PR Pro, the professional membership community for independent PR professionals. (37:47) Know Your Worth: The common tendency to underestimate abilities and the critical need for self-promotion. (39:05) Raise Your Rates: A direct encouragement for solo pros to charge what they are worth. (42:11) A Healthy Mindset: The importance of maintaining your mental, physical, and spiritual well-being to thrive as a professional. Related Episodes & Additional Information In this episode, Karen Swim was a guest on the Smart Talk series podcast, hosted by Melissa Vela-Williamson, M.A., APR, Fellow PRSA, CDP. To learn more about Melissa's work and discover other communication topics, visit mvw360.com. Check out the resources and community for independent PR professionals at soloprpro.com. Find Melissa Vela-Williamson's books on Amazon. Host & Show Info That Solo Life is a podcast created for public relations, communication, and marketing professionals who work as independent and small practitioners. Hosted by Karen Swim, APR, founder of Words For Hire and President of Solo PR, and Michelle Kane, Principal of Voice Matters, the show delivers expert insights, encouragement, and advice for solo PR pros navigating today's dynamic professional landscape. Did this episode resonate with you? Don't keep it to yourself! Share it with a fellow PR pro who needs to hear it. Subscribe to "That Solo Life" on your favorite podcast platform and leave us a review—it helps other professionals discover the show.

How to make smarter decisions that improve your life by understanding your mind and it's hidden psychology. We are all storytelling creatures, desperate to fit the world into a narrative that makes sense to us. Thus, we build echo chambers not because we are stupid, but because we are afraid. The Confirmation Bias is a shield against the discomfort of being wrong. The Availability Bias shapes our worldview based on the loudest stories, not the most important facts. This episode reviews 7 cognitive biases the explore the friction between what is comfortable and what is true. Learning helps us build tools for the art of long-term thinking in a short-term world. Audit your inputs: Step outside your algorithmic feed to find the friction of opposing views. Reframe the risk: Turn "Black Swan" surprises into "White Swan" predictions by analyzing the unsexy data. Choose commitment: Overcome the paralysis of infinite choice by making a "good enough" decision and sticking to it. Go make a ruckus by choosing to think clearly today. SPONSORS

In a special midweek episode of the Minor Issues podcast, Mark Thornton appears on Palisades Gold Radio with Stijn Schmitz. Mark argues that gold's surge isn't a fad: it's a market verdict on runaway deficits, central-bank credibility, and fiat money itself. He also explains why manipulated rates breed booms, busts, and inequality, while sound money and decentralization restore real signals.The original episode ("Dr. Mark Thornton: Early Innings for Gold, Silver Manipulation, Black Swans & Failing Markets") is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2FUnca1q3cBe sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Mark Thornton to the show. Dr. Mark Thornton is Economist and Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute. The discussion centers on the current state of precious metals, monetary policy, and economic systems, with a particular focus on gold and silver’s role in the global financial landscape. Thornton argues that gold is fundamentally money, and governments have only recently forced their way into replacing commodity money with fiat currency. He suggests that the current precious metals market is still in its early stages, with central bank buying and distrust in the US dollar driving significant interest. The gold and silver markets are experiencing growing pains, with increasing investor attention and potential for further price appreciation. The conversation delves into the fundamental differences between Austrian and Keynesian economics. Thornton criticizes Keynesian economics as a state-controlled ideology that promotes government spending and manipulates interest rates, whereas Austrian economics advocates for market-driven monetary systems and private property rights. He highlights how central bank policies create economic bubbles and exacerbate wealth inequality by favoring asset-rich individuals. Thornton sees potential for a significant monetary transformation, potentially triggered by the current precious metals bull market. He believes the collision between Western and Eastern financial markets, coupled with the rise of cryptocurrencies, could lead to a fundamental restructuring of monetary systems. The possibility of a return to a gold standard or a gold-backed settlement currency is discussed as a potential future scenario. The economist also warns about potential economic bubbles in artificial intelligence and private equity, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have created unsustainable conditions across various sectors. He believes that while central banks have been able to temporarily extend economic cycles, their power is not infinite, and a significant market correction is inevitable. Thornton concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding Austrian economic principles and encourages listeners to explore the works of economists like Friedrich Hayek to gain deeper insights into monetary systems and economic dynamics. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:19 – Gold as Money 00:04:21 – Central Bank Distrust 00:05:52 – Bull Run Early Stages 00:09:35 – Historical Parallels 1980s 00:14:15 – Return to Gold Standard 00:18:16 – Bond Markets Unraveling 00:24:07 – Austrian vs Keynesian Economics 00:31:19 – Flexible Inflation Targeting 00:33:53 – Silver Monetary Role 00:45:46 – AI Private Equity Bubbles 00:51:11 – Future Recession Outlook 00:55:41 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://mises.org X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton E-Mail: mailto:mthornton@mises.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mark+thornton+minor+issues Book-Hayek: https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy Dr. Mark Thornton is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and formerly held the Peterson-Luddy Chair in Austrian Economics. He hosts the podcasts Minor Issues and Unanimity and is Book Review Editor of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. His books include The Economics of Prohibition, Tariffs, Blockades, and Inflation, The Bastiat Collection, and The Skyscraper Curse. He has served on multiple editorial boards, taught economics at several universities, and worked as Assistant Superintendent of Banking and adviser to Alabama Governor Fob James. He holds degrees from St. Bonaventure University and Auburn University and has debated the “War on Drugs” at the Oxford Union. Dr. Thornton has been featured in major outlets such as The Economist, Forbes, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today, along with numerous international and regional newspapers. His commentary appears regularly on the Mises Institute's platforms and on programs such as Boom-Bust, the Tom Woods Show, and the Scott Horton Show.

Step inside one of the wildest careers in modern British cooking as we sit down with Tommy Banks, once the youngest British Michelin starred chef, Great British Menu champion, author, farmer, preservation obsessive, cricket prodigy in a past life, and the man behind both The Black Swan at Oldstead and Roots in York. From hand milking cows on a tiny family farm to being crowned TripAdvisor's number one restaurant in the world, Tommy charts the long, strange path that took him from near-empty dining rooms to global recognition. Along the way we hear about the early days of The Black Swan, complete with RAF chefs who bullied teenage Tommy at the sink, and his twenty-something imposter syndrome phase where he cheerfully admits to cooking straight out of Phil Howard's cookbook before finding his own style.The stories in this episode are the stuff of modern kitchen folklore. Tommy talks us through the heartbreaking illness at eighteen that ended his cricket dreams, the fierce work ethic that followed, and the moment Kenny Atkinson sat down for dinner and told him he had to get on Great British Menu. We hear about the ferocious creativity behind his fermentation rooms, the Douglas fir desserts, the legendary crab and beetroot dish, and the umeboshi-style strawberries now copied across the country. There is also the infamous pie-van heist that turned into a national news frenzy with Tommy fielding calls from Radio 1 through Radio 5 on the same day as he begged thieves to at least give the five thousand pies to charity. And of course the blackmail era of two-year waiting lists after The Black Swan went viral.Tommy also gives us a hilarious and honest tour of life running an expanding Yorkshire empire. From the diners flying in by helicopter to tell him his restaurant is not the best in the world, to the email from an industry “expert” advising him to shut down the General Tarleton immediately, to his strict refusal to cook vegan food because he cannot grow lemons on the farm, the stories land one after another. We dig into Yorkshire pub culture, his dream blowout dinners, his disdain for truffle, and the perfection of a proper Sunday roast at The Abbey Inn. This is Tommy Banks in full flow: sharp, grounded, funny, straight talking, wildly inventive, and endlessly proud of his little corner of Yorkshire. A genuine must-listen.--------Please leave us a great rating and a comment and share it with your friends - it really helps us grow as a show.If you're in the industry and are looking for the greatest POS system in the world than look no further -as Blinq are tearing up the rulebook—no long-term contracts, no hidden fees, and no per-device charges.Just £69 a month for unlimited devices and 24/7 UK-based support that's always there, in person when you need it.Built for hospitality, by hospitality, blinq is the fastest, easiest POS system on the market—so intuitive, anyone can use it. And while others take weeks to get you up and running, with blinq, you're live in just 2 hours.Join the hospitality revolution today & use the code GOTOBLINQ to get your first month free - https://blinqme.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We take a break from reality to play our favorite nighttime driving songs, even with our endless cynicism, we're nonplussed as the left and right keep changing sides, Alex fanboys on MTG, US Ukraine peace plan proves Putin probably possesses two-POTUS pleasure pics, new information has come to light, man, and finally, Epstein, AI, or Aliens:  What's your favorite Black Swan? Drop us a comment below.

Rich Embury’s R3TROGR4D3 returns to CRANK IT LOUD with more brand NEW Hard Rock & Metal from Mammoth / Bodyweb / Halestorm & Paul Rodgers / Ministry Of Dark / Matt Hughes & Derick Sherinian / Black Swan / Shutter Down / Scott Mitchell / Metal Jacket / Joel Hoekstra’s 13 / Christy Wyatt / Paul Lidel’s Scream Therapy / Cyhra! Plus music history, classics, requests and more from Marilyn Manson / AC-DC / Ozzy Osbourne / KISS / Pyramaze / The Sweet / Korn / Out Of Darkness / Seasons Of The Wolf / Rob Zombie / Cyhra / Nazareth! TAKE COVER

Nov 21, 2025 – AI is rapidly transforming the U.S. economy and energy grid. Jim Puplava and Mark Mills discuss the surge in AI data centers, rising energy demand, skilled trade shortages, and how America can lead the global AI race amid major...

Send us a textIn this raw shadow-soaked episode, Justine Lemos and Emily McConnell descend into the basement-level truths of a wild Scorpio stellium and the New Moon in Anuradha Nakshatra. With Mercury retrograde, Mars and Moon in Scorpio, and Venus smoldering in Libra, this is a conversation about secrecy, devotion, power, obsession, and the thin line between concealment and revelation.From underground raves and lotus flowers growing out of the muck, to global politics, taboo topics, and cultural shadow, the duo explores the archetypal terrain of Scorpio: sex, power, death, trauma, secrets—and transformation. Film references like Black Swan and American Beauty, along with dark, magnetic music picks (Billie Eilish, underground hip-hop), amplify the episode's sultry, dissonant, and entrancing vibe.A powerful Vedic myth of Brahma, Agni, Indra, and Vayu delivers the spiritual message of the episode: true power is not in domination, but in humility and curiosity. The blade of grass becomes the symbol of divine intelligence, reminding listeners that knowledge, not conquest, is the ultimate victory.This episode is a ritual in itself — part astrology lesson, part cultural critique, part devotional meditation, and part shadow dance.Themes: Scorpio secrets • Anuradha devotion • Power + concealment • Shadow integration • Erotic mysticism • Truth behind illusion • Knowledge as liberationSupport the show

Effective 20 June 2025, I did a major improved revision on the sound quality for all my WarNotes episodes retroactively thanks to the technology at Podsworth. It is time for America to completely reassess alliances and partnership around the world starting with NATO and then working its way down the list of useless and toxic relationships and promises to commit American blood and treasure to flashpoints planet-wide. NATO insisted after the wall 1989-91 fell that the NATO blob would NOT expand eastward. America should take a non-interventionist pause and get its internal house in order before standing astride the world again and lighting fires that never go away and continuously make things worse. Stop the madness. References: Winning The Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air And Missile Defenses The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age Nyet Means Nyet (William Burns 2008) Pat Buchanan Where Does NATO Enlargement End? DoS Cable: NATO ENLARGEMENT: RUSSIAN ASSERTIONS REGARDING THE TWO-PLUS-FOUR AGREEMENT ON GERMAN UNIFICATION Navy Matters Get the US Out of NATO Books: Sevim Dagdelen NATO: A Reckoning with the Atlantic Alliance Matt Kennard The Racket: A Rogue Reporter vs The American Empire Daniel Ellsberg The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Scott Horton Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine Nassim Taleb Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Mark Gunzinger & Bryan Clark Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defense Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare My Substack Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

Effective 20 June 2025, I did a major improved revision on the sound quality for all my WarNotes episodes retroactively thanks to the technology at Podsworth. It is time for America to completely reassess alliances and partnership around the world starting with NATO and then working its way down the list of useless and toxic relationships and promises to commit American blood and treasure to flashpoints planet-wide. NATO insisted after the wall 1989-91 fell that the NATO blob would NOT expand eastward. It did. America should take a non-interventionist pause and get its internal house in order before standing astride the world again and lighting fires that never go away and continuously make things worse. Stop the madness. First part here: Ep 009 "Fixing Fight Club: Just Say No to NATO: Part One" References: Winning The Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air And Missile Defenses The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age Nyet Means Nyet (William Burns 2008) Ted Galen Carpenter NATO's Phony (and Dangerous) Nonbelligerent Status Regarding the Ukraine War Ted Snider US Foreign Policy Was Never About Promoting Democracy Pat Buchanan Where Does NATO Enlargement End? DoS Cable: NATO ENLARGEMENT: RUSSIAN ASSERTIONS REGARDING THE TWO-PLUS-FOUR AGREEMENT ON GERMAN UNIFICATION Navy Matters Get the US Out of NATO Books: Sevim Dagdelen NATO: A Reckoning with the Atlantic Alliance Matt Kennard The Racket: A Rogue Reporter vs The American Empire Daniel Ellsberg The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Scott Horton Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine Nassim Taleb Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Mark Gunzinger & Bryan Clark Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defense Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

Stop trying to protect yourself from every risk. It's the reason you're still fragile, vulnerable, and one bad event away from collapse. The secret to thriving in chaos isn't avoiding shocks. It's becoming the kind of system that gets stronger from them... ⁠Show notes⁠ / ⁠Free Audiobook⁠ / ⁠PDF, Infographic, Ad-free Audiobook and Animated Summary⁠ Your entire life is built on a lie. You've been told that success comes from eliminating risk, building stability, and protecting yourself from chaos. But what if the secret to thriving isn't avoiding shocks—it's becoming the kind of system that gets stronger from them? READ ANY BOOK IN MINUTES: Start a free trial of ⁠StoryShots⁠: ⁠https://www.getstoryshots.com⁠ to get the extended ad-free audiobook, PDF, infographic and animated version of this summary of Antifragile and more exclusive content. Comment on Spotify or Apple Podcasts and let us know how you liked this episode. Help us grow to create more amazing content for you! ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Don't forget to subscribe, rate and review the StoryShots podcast now. What should our next book be? Comment on Spotify/iTunes or vote it up on the ⁠StoryShots⁠ app. Get the full audiobook for free ⁠here⁠ or listen to it on ⁠Spotify⁠. Interested in sponsorship? Contact ⁠sales@getstoryshots.com⁠. Your entire life is built on a lie. You've been told that success comes from eliminating risk, building stability, and protecting yourself from chaos. But every time you play it safe, you're making yourself weaker. The next Black Swan event (and it's coming) will shatter everything you've built. Unless you learn the one counterintuitive principle that separates those who collapse from those who thrive. In Nassim Nicholas Taleb's groundbreaking book, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, you'll discover why the opposite of fragile isn't robust—it's antifragile. While the fragile breaks under stress and the robust merely endures it, the antifragile gets stronger. This isn't just about surviving uncertainty. It's about thriving because of it. If you're tired of trying to predict the unpredictable, if you're an entrepreneur or investor who wants to profit from volatility instead of fearing it, or if you feel like one bad break could destroy everything you've built, this episode will change your entire approach. You'll learn the Barbell Strategy for managing risk, the power of Via Negativa (subtraction over addition), why skin in the game matters more than expertise, and how to build systems that benefit from randomness instead of being destroyed by it. ⁠"Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better." —Nassim Nicholas Taleb⁠ Related Book Summaries ⁠The Black Swan⁠ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb⁠Fooled by Randomness⁠ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb⁠Skin in the Game⁠ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb⁠Thinking, Fast and Slow⁠ by Daniel Kahneman⁠Sapiens⁠ by Yuval Noah Harari⁠Thinking in Systems⁠ by Donella H. Meadows⁠The Signal and the Noise⁠ by Nate Silver⁠The Bed of Procrustes⁠ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bar Talk (our recommendations):Jessica is reading A Boy and His Dog at the End of the World by C.A. Fletchere; drinking a Blind Tiger's Bees Knees.Damien is reading The Haar by David Sodergren; drinking a Larceny bourbon whiskey.Ryan is watching "Adolescence" (Netflix); drinking and Old Forester 86.If you liked this week's story, watch Black Swan (2010; dir. Darren Aronofsky)Up next: "An Evicted Spirit" by Marguerite MeringtonSpecial thank you to Dr Blake Brandes for our Whiskey and the Weird music! Like, rate, and follow! Check us out @whiskeyandtheweird on Instagram, Threads & Facebook, and at whiskeyandtheweird.com

Episode 400 is here, and we're turning the volume UP to celebrate this milestone in true RadioBypass fashion—by delivering an hour packed with brand-new, hard-hitting Rock and Roll music that absolutely DESERVES to be heard!This week we unleash fresh tracks from The Dead Daisies, Kings Of Karma, Joel Hoekstra, Tuk Smith & The Restless Hearts, Black Swan, Killer Hearts, Violet Breed, Brother Cane, Lynyrd Skynyrd, Engines Of Ruin, and Slave I Remain. It's a powerhouse lineup built to recharge your rock spirit and keep the flame burning bright.And because Episode 400 calls for something special, we're also celebrating the legendary David Coverdale, following his recent retirement announcement. We honor his incredible career by spinning some timeless classics from his iconic work with Deep Purple and Whitesnake.Crank it loud and join the celebration—400 episodes of championing the music that moves us, inspires us, and keeps Rock and Roll alive.Let's keep bypassing the mainstream… together!Songlist:The Dead Daisies - Long Way To GoKings Of Karma - Calls My NameDeep Purple - Sail AwayWhitesnake - TroubleWhitesnake - Hey You (You Make Me Rock)Joel Hoekstra - The FallTuk Smith & The Restless Hearts - Troubled ParadiseBlack Swan - If I Was KingKiller Hearts - WarpathViolet Breed - Stay AwayBrother Cane - If This Means WarLynyrd Skynyrd with Marcus King - Saturday Night Special (Live)Engines Of Ruin - To Your GraveSlave I Remain - Nothing Else

Agradece a este podcast tantas horas de entretenimiento y disfruta de episodios exclusivos como éste. ¡Apóyale en iVoox! Y como no puede ser de otro modo, en este episodio también empezamos con una auténtica bomba, la retirada de David Coverdale. Obviamente le dedicaremos un amplio minutaje en el arranque del episodio. Pero hay más, mucho más! David Coverdale, bendita jubilación Nuevos: Rob Moratti, Black Swan, Time Tripper, Treat, Mayhem Mavericks, Mean Street, Gotthard, Nite Stinger Message. Sambora y Alec John Such antes de Bon Jovi Clásicos: Garbo Talks, Primer Time, Synth a go-go: Sun City, Magic Dance Escucha este episodio completo y accede a todo el contenido exclusivo de AOR Diamonds. Descubre antes que nadie los nuevos episodios, y participa en la comunidad exclusiva de oyentes en https://go.ivoox.com/sq/75094

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Markowski takes aim at the illusion of control in modern investing — from flashy trading apps to overconfident day traders staring at eight screens of data. Drawing on insights from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, he explains how luck is often mistaken for skill, why hindsight bias ruins sound judgment, and how refusing to adapt can sink even the smartest investors. His takeaway: real intelligence in the markets comes from humility, skepticism, and knowing your limits.

In this episode, Eric and Michelle explore the mystery of 3I/ATLAS, the newly discovered interstellar object that's only recently entered our awareness. This cosmic traveler invites us to expand our perspective on what lies beyond and within.  Tune in to the conversation as friends of the show, Vic, Nadia and Maura (and Ozzie Bear!) gather in the studio as we reflect on what discoveries like 3I/ATLAS reveal about our place in the universe.

Chris Voss was the FBI's lead international hostage negotiator… but these days, he's helping CEOs, speakers, and sales pros negotiate million-pound deals, win high-stakes conversations, and get results — without pushing, pitching, or people-pleasing. In this episode of The Speaking Club, I'm joined by the author of Never Split the Difference to explore how you can use his real-world-tested negotiation techniques to build trust fast, shift resistant clients into action, and speak with more power and presence. And yes — I even used one of his own tactics to get him to say "yes" to coming on the show! Whether you're trying to book more speaking gigs, close better clients, or simply influence with integrity — this one's packed with actionable diamonds! What you'll discover: How Chris Voss went from SWAT and undercover ops to suicide hotlines and high-stakes hostage negotiation — and why it made him one of the world's top communication experts. What compelled Chris to share his FBI-developed negotiation system with the world instead of retiring into the sunset — and how that decision shaped Never Split the Difference. The one negotiation tactic that sounds great on paper… but can actually backfire, and what to do instead. Chris's ride-or-die technique — the one negotiation move he'd keep if all others were off the table. The common "influence" move that actually kills deals faster than anything — and what to replace it with. How Chris would handle a client who's stalling on a deadline or payment — and the exact question he'd use to move them into action. The subtle ways Chris reads and influences a room when he's speaking — and how his FBI experience shapes his delivery and timing. Why "labelling the room" during a talk can deepen audience connection — and how to read silent resistance and adjust in the moment. What the concept of the "Black Swan" means for public speaking — and how spotting the right insight can completely change your impact. How to make your audience feel in control (even if you're the one guiding them) — and why that's the secret to ethical influence and increased action. Why "Yes is nothing without how" — and how to use this principle in your calls to action so that people actually follow through after your talk. Enjoy! If you'd like to watch the video of the episode, you can do that here>> Guest Information: Website: https://www.blackswanltd.com/chris-voss   LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophervoss    Books & Resources*: Start with No by Jim Camp The Rise of Superman by Steven Kotler Stealing Fire by Steven Kotler The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle   Speaking Resources: Grab Your From Blank Page to Stage Guide and Nail the Topic for a Client Winning Talk: https://saraharcher.co.uk/newguide-tsc  Want to get better at finding and sharing your stories then check out our FREE Five Day Snackable Story Challenge: https://www.saraharcher.co.uk/challenge    To share your thoughts:                                                   ·   leave a comment below. ·   Share this show on X, Facebook or LinkedIn. To help the show out: ·   Leave an honest review at https://www.ratethispodcast.com/tsc. Your ratings and reviews really help get the word out and I read each one. *(please note if you use my link I get a small commission, but this does not affect your payment)

Austin Butler in a crime comedy from the director of Black Swan, Mother! and Requiem for a Dream? That couldn't possibly work... could it? (Warning: contains spoilers for major plot developments.) Presented by J.R. Southall, with Jon Arnold and Ryan Blake

After contributing to The Pod and the Pendulum's 300th episode on the 25 best horror films of the 21st century, we decided to run through our individual lists for listeners.How did we each approach the task? (hint: thank god for Letterboxd) Which film(s) appear on both lists? And what movies will top our individual lists?! Don't scroll if you don't wanna know!Joe's Top 25 Horror Films of the Century (Ranked)The Invitation (2015)Knife + Heart (2018)Hereditary (2018)Train To Busan (2016)Relic (2020)Saint Maud (2019)The Descent (2005)The Perfection (2018)Inside/A L'Interieur (2007)Raw (2016)Better Watch Out (2016)Under The Skin (2013)Black Swan (2010)Let The Right One In (2007)Stoker (2013)Femme (2023)Annihilation (2018)Blink Twice (2024)The Skin I Live In (2011)The Strangers (2008)The Invisible Man (2020)Hostel Part 2 (2007)Ginger Snaps (2000)The Substance (2024)Midnight (2022)----------Trace's Top 25 Horror Films of the Century (Ranked)The Substance (2024)The Descent (2005)The Den (2013) - Listen to our guest spot on TGIFHereditary (2018)The Invitation (2015)Martyrs (2008)The Perfection (2018)The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (2003)It Follows (2014)The Outwaters (2022)Drag Me To Hell (2009)Grindhouse (2007)Trick 'r Treat (2007)Insidious (2011)The Witch (2018)The Cabin In The Woods (2011)Bug (2006)The Mist (2007)Evil Dead (2013)Green Room (2008)[Rec]² (2009)Doctor Sleep (2019)Don't Breathe (2016)Detention (2011)Zombeavers (2014) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The penultimate horror film in Have You Ever Seen's 10th Annual Scary Movie Month was a blockbuster and an Oscar-winner. And that's unusual for the relentless and unsubtle director Darren Aronofsky. He isn't often rewarded so much for the chances he takes. This 693rd episode talks about how the intense Black Swan is women-centric, even as the women in it go through hell. Natalie Portman won Best Actress for playing a lonely ballet dancer who was deluded even before the movie started. Then after she gets the lead role in Swan Lake, she shows us levels of masochism, obsession and deep mental illness. Real versus imagined. Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey and Vincent Cassell hit some home runs too, with Hersey eating it up as Portman's possessive and abusive mother. So put on your feathers and get ready for an episode all about the sordid and dangerous world of ballet. Well, Actually: Mother! wasn't a complete failure at the box office and Noah didn't do THAT badly worldwide. Be a sweet girl (or a sweet boy) and write a review of this or any other HYES episode. Rate it too (5 stars!). And subscribe to the show. The email address is "haveyoueverseenpodcast@gmail.com". The socials are “@moviefiend51” on the T and “ryan-ellis” on the B. If you spend time on Letterboxd, look for me as "RyanHYES". I tend to focus on modern movies (contrasting the M-O of this podcast) and will probably do a lot more reviewing there in mid-November and beyond.

J Darrin Gross I'd like to ask you. Travis King, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Travis King It's a great question. It's actually really hard to try to encapsulate it in one thing, so maybe I might give a multifaceted answer, if that's okay with you. One thing I would say that is paramount in real estate, and I alluded to it earlier, is the only real way I know to lose money in real estate is to lever inappropriately. So leverage at the end of the day, that's how you lose control of your properties, right? And that happens. So then I you peel that onion a little bit and say, Okay, well, how does that happen? Right? How do you run into problems there? And I think there's two main areas that I would focus on as kind of sub points. Number one is going to be making sure that you're checking your assumptions and making sure that they stand up in a lot of alternative scenarios you might not have considered, right? A perfect example was back in, remember, during the housing bubble of of 2008 when everything popped, they realized at one point that there was no way to even show you know, potential negative drop in housing values, right? That's a great example of just a a glaring error of saying, Well, you got to be able to test some of your assumptions. And I think you really need to beat them up and test them under old under ultimate scenarios that could happen. Black Swans do happen, right? And I think that sometimes it doesn't even need to be a black swan. And we've seen things where we've preached to folks over and over to say, in multifamily as an example, if you were to go through and change your rents just by 10 or 15% on a multifamily property. And then, you know, the cap rates move, you know, a little bit. You know, you have cap rates move 50 basis point because the markets in a little bit of turmoil, right? And your occupancy gets hit by five 10% just all these things are fairly small changes. It could be 15 to 20% of the value of the property. So if you're if you're buying something, you know, that's very highly leveraged, you could find yourself in a very difficult position very quickly. The second thing I would say is be careful who you're doing business with. A lot of times it really comes down to making sure you have the right partners. Some of the biggest problems I've seen happen are are doing business with the wrong people. And I think that that's where you run into problem, regardless of what your dollar of what your documents might say. If you're not dealing with trustworthy people that are putting integrity first and foremost, that's an easy way to get into trouble. So eyes wide open on who you work with. Do your do your background checks, talk to people, get references, referrals. Move slowly. I think you do those two things together and stay conservative in your capital structure. You avoid, you avoid a lot of pitfalls. https://www.realmlp.com/

Can clear Ends exist in a radically uncertain world? Lord Mervyn King explains how to align Ways and Means without them. Successive national security and defence reviews in recent years have adjusted their language about the nature of the world, moving from being one of competition, to uncertainty, to today's 'radical uncertainty'. Is the concept simply being used to justify the new review and differentiate it from the last one, or does it reflect a real change in the challenges nations confront? Have we moved beyond VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous), to BANI (brittle, anxious, non-linear and incomprehensible) and does it matter? And what does it mean for our approach to making strategy? To guide us through these questions, we are joined by Baron Mervyn King of Lothbury KG. An economist by training, he graduated from both Cambridge and Harvard Universities, after time as an academic he became the Bank of England's chief economist. Between 2003-1013, he served as its Governor, where he was responsible for the United Kingdom's economic strategy during the 2008 global financial crisis. An accomplished academic, thinker and author, his book Radical Uncertainty with Professor John Kay considers the implications for decision making of this radical uncertainty. Further Reading John Kay and Mervyn King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an Unknowable Future, Bridge Street Press, 2020. Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschäppeler, The Decision Book: Fifty models for strategic thinking, Profile Books, 2023. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, Penguin, 2007. Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Random House, 2006.

DJ Maffers In Association With The Black Swan Rugby Warwickshire 11th October 2025    On www.bootboyradio.net    Please Play Like Comment Follow Download & Share

Wir beklagen es seit Jahren: Die Gesellschaft ist gespalten. Wir teilen uns zunehmend auf, in gegenteilige Ansichten über Politik und Kultur - und letztendlich auch über die Realität. Die andere Seite des politischen Spektrums scheint wie eine Spiegelwelt, wo alles verdreht ist. Im Film und Fernsehen gibt es einen Trope, der diese Wahrnehmung über die Welt einfängt: Der Doppelgänger. Eine Person, die gleichzeitig zum verwechseln ähnlich und gleichzeitig gegenteilig ist. Sei es der (böse) Zwilling in Soaps und Telenovelas, das verselbstständigte Spiegelbild, wie bei “Black Swan”, oder Gestalten aus einer Parallelwelt, wie bei “US”. Doch der Doppelgänger ist nicht immer eine andere Person, manchmal sind es auch zwei Persönlichkeiten in einer Person, wie bei “Dr. Jekyll und Mr. Hyde”, “Fight Club”, “Severance”, oder “The Substance”. An dem Doppelgänger verhandeln wir die Angst, wie sehr “das Böse” auch in uns wohnt und welche Sehnsüchte wir haben. Was ist es genau, was uns von falschen oder mutigen Entscheidungen abhält? Willenskraft oder äußere Umstände? Könnten wir auch ganz anders sein? In Zeiten von Social Media Accounts und ständiger Reproduktion unseres eigenen Abbilds bekommt der Trope eine weitere Dimension. Wir erschaffen freiwillig unsere eigenen Doppelgänger. Versionen von uns, die besser und glücklicher - oder auch gemeiner und skrupelloser sind - aber die eigentlich nicht wirklich wir. Die Frage ist nur: Wie lange kann das gut gehen? Hört rein und findet es raus.

This week, Jason is joined by author, entrepreneur, professor, and most notably former member of the FBI, known as the mast negotiator, Chris Voss! Chris earned that title throughout his time serving as the lead crisis negotiator for the New York City division of the FBI, and then as FBI's Chief International Hostage and Kidnapping negotiator. In 2008, after spending 24 years and working 150 international hostage cases for the FBI, Chris founded the Black Swan group which serves as a consulting and training agency for both businesses and individuals on negotiating skills. He has also published several NYT bestselling books. The former FBI hostage negotiator pulls back the curtain on the art and science of high-stakes communication. Chris breaks down his thoughts on President Trump's negotiation tactics, explains what an “accusation audit” is and why it's so effective, and shares how he reacts when others use his own techniques against him. He dives into knowing when to walk away, why every interaction should end on a high note, and what to do when you're being ghosted. Chris also brings his negotiation expertise into everyday life—offering strategies for navigating dating, marriage, and divorce, the power of telling the truth, and why curiosity can be a superpower when dealing with tight-lipped people. He reveals how a kidnapping hostage negotiation unfolds, the cost of a bad deal, why trusting your gut matters, and his best tips for negotiating your salary. Chris reveals all this and so much more in another episode you can't afford to miss! Host: Jason Tartick Co-Host: David Arduin Audio: John Gurney Guest:  Stay connected with the Trading Secrets Podcast!  Instagram: @tradingsecretspodcast  Youtube: Trading Secrets Facebook: Join the Group  All Access: Free 30-Day Trial  Trading Secrets Steals & Deals! Square: If you're starting a business, or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to $200 off Square hardware at square.com/go/tradingsecrets  Momentous: Momentous Creapure ® Creatine is backed by leading performance experts like Dr Andrew Huberman and Dr Stacy Sims. Sourced exclusively in Germany, Creapure sets the gold standard for creatine, delivering the purest form, creatine monohydrate, that's rigorously washed and never cut with fillers. Go to livemomentous.com, and use promo code TRADINGSECRETS for up to 35% off your first subscription order Boll & Branch: Boll & Branch makes upgrading your bed easier than ever with curated Bundles for a sanctuary of comfort. For a limited time get 20% off Bed Bundles, plus free shipping and returns, at BollAndBranch.com/tradingsecrets.

The Cinematography Podcast Episode 328: Kira Kelly, ASC Cinematographer Kira Kelly, ASC, had a rare opportunity in the movie HIM: exploring the genres of horror and sports, which are not usually combined. She and director Justin Tipping focused their discussions on Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE), specifically how football-related brain injuries often cause hallucinations. This condition was central to building the feeling of surrealism for the main character, Cam. Before beginning the 8 weeks of prep on HIM, director Justin Tipping created an extensive lookbook with ideas for the atmosphere, lighting and costumes. To establish the film's unique, suspenseful, and surrealistic look, he suggested Kira watch The Holy Mountain and Black Swan. “Justin was open to lots of collaboration,” says Kira. “I feel like this film does have such a strong visual look because we were all working together to make the movie.” Camera movement, color, and lighting are all integral to the movie's storytelling. As Cam descends deeper into the underground compound, Kira used specific colors and lighting. She created a document to track the emotional influence of color for each scene, integrating the lighting into the set and programming the colors to change per sequence. Red with orange highlights was used for the Saviors party, reflecting the oxblood red of the team colors. Fuchsia and magenta were used to show rage. For the scenes on the training field, Kira used top lighting, so that the skin tones of the players would have some reflectivity. Kira's camera work parallels Cam's psychological journey. “At the beginning, it should be fun,” Kira explains. “He's playing football. It's much more loose.” The crew used handheld and body cameras, plus a boomerang rig that sent the camera flying down the field. Once Cam feels trapped in the compound, Kira shifted the style dramatically. “That's where we get into more of these center- punched static frames. He's trapped figuratively, and all the ways.” One of HIM's most unique visual elements was the use of a Flir thermal imaging camera. Kelly and Tipping wanted to use the thermal camera to visually represent the internal trauma of what was happening inside the players' bodies and brains during tackles. Kira and her crew created a rig to mount the Flir camera right above the ALEXA 35 and found that the images could converge and focus enough to allow the two images to overlay. The shots could flick back and forth between the regular camera and the thermal camera. In post, VFX added the brains and accentuated the muscles. The thermal camera effectively showed blood flow and hot and cold areas, adding a chilling layer to the physical impact of the sport. Kira feels gratified that her vision for the visual style of HIM tells an effective story. “As a DP, every challenge I have is if an audience is able to understand the story,” she says. “If they don't have the wonderful dialogue, if they don't have the music, if they don't have all of those other things helping the story along, could they tell what's happening just with the imagery? And I feel like with HIM, I say, yeah, I think so. You can see it happening. And that's what's super exciting to me.” See HIM in theaters and on VOD. Find Kira Kelly: Instagram @kirakellydp Hear our previous interviews with Kira Kelly: https://www.camnoir.com/ep67/ https://www.camnoir.com/ep273/ The Cinematography Podcast website: www.camnoir.com YouTube: @TheCinematographyPodcast Facebook: @cinepod Instagram: @thecinepod Blue Sky: @thecinepod.bsky.social

Are the Swiss Setting Up the Next Black Swan Event? The Swiss National Bank is back in the headlines — buying billions in foreign currencies and stirring memories of the 2015 Swiss Franc shock. In this episode, Akil Stokes breaks down what's happening, why it matters, and whether another black swan event could be brewing in the Forex market.

Episode 1810 - brought to you by our incredible sponsors: True Classic- TrueClassic.com/HARDFACTOR to try them out for yourself. Hydrow- Go to Hydrow.com and use code HARDFACTOR to save up to $450 off your Hydrow Pro Rower! DaftKings- Download the DraftKings Casino app, sign up with code HARDFACTOR, and spin your favorite slots! The Crown is Yours - Gambling problem? Call one eight hundred GAMBLER Lucy- Let's level up your nicotine routine with Lucy.  Go to ⁠⁠Lucy.co/HARDFACTOR⁠⁠ and use promo code (HARDFACTOR) to get 20% off your first order. Must be of age-verified. Better Help - Our listeners get 10% off their first month of online therapy at BetterHelp dot com slash HARDFACTOR Timestamps: 00:00:00 Timestamps 00:01:30 Join our Discord to get in on Pat's new WEEKLY NFL PARLAY system that is sure to hit this year patreon.com/hardfactor 00:06:55 ICE & The National Guard are invading Chicago, and things are getting nuts 00:19:55 Trump and the Canadian Prime Minister are looking awfully chummy these days 00:24:00 Marineland animal park in Ontario is threatening to murder its THIRTY Beluga Whales if the Government doesn't step in to help save them 00:31:30 Black Swan gets evicted from an English pond after becoming too aggressive with the native White Swans 00:39:20 The Pope has blessed a giant block of ice to help the Earth's environment 00:41:15 KY Man puts up spooky Halloween decorations, but they were actually just threats towards local officials  Thank you for listening!! If you're still reading, join our community at patreon.com/hardfactor to get access to bonus podcasts, discord chat, and much more... but Most importantly: HAGFD!! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How would you feel if you were the only black swan in town? Chicago’s best morning radio show now has a podcast! Don’t forget to rate, review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and remember that the conversation always lives on the Q101 Facebook page. Brian & Kenzie are live every morning from 6a-10a on Q101. Subscribe to our channel HERE: https://www.youtube.com/@Q101 Like Q101 on Facebook HERE: https://www.facebook.com/q101chicago Follow Q101 on Twitter HERE: https://twitter.com/Q101Chicago Follow Q101 on Instagram HERE: https://www.instagram.com/q101chicago/?hl=en Follow Q101 on TikTok HERE: https://www.tiktok.com/@q101chicago?lang=enSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a text"RAISE CAPITAL LIKE A LEGEND: https://go.fundraisecapital.co"In this episode, Ryan Miller and renowned venture capitalist Jeremy Kranz explore the future of global investing and fund management. They reveal how emerging markets, particularly China, have outpaced Silicon Valley in real-world AI adoption and commercialization. Jeremy argues that a series of "Black Swans"—like the tokenization of capital markets and advancements in quantum computing—are poised to reshape the financial landscape and create trillion-dollar opportunities hiding in plain sight.This is a must-watch for startup founders, private equity investors, and anyone interested in the future of technology trends and business leadership. Subscribe on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTOe79EXLDsROQ0z3YLnu1QQConnect with Ryan Miller:Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcmiller1/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/makingbillionspodcast/Twitter: https://twitter.com/_MakingBillonsWebsite: https://making-billions.com/[THE GUEST]: Jeremy Kranz created the Bridge Forum and now Sentinel Labs, to assist US startups seeking to go global. With over 25 years of venture investing globally and more than 18 venture investments exited via IPO, founded platforms to connect Silicon Valley to international markets in digital assets & AI he is an expert in supply chain optimization and coined the term "interoperable commerce".  ​ [THE HOST]: Ryan Miller is an Angel investorSupport the showDISCLAIMER: The information in every podcast episode “episode” is provided for general informational purposes only and may not reflect the current law in your jurisdiction. By listening or viewing our episodes, you understand that no information contained in the episodes should be construed as legal or financial advice from the individual author, hosts, or guests, nor is it intended to be a substitute for legal, financial, or tax counsel on any subject matter. No listener of the episodes should act or refrain from acting on the basis of any information included in, or accessible through, the episodes without seeking the appropriate legal or other professional advice on the particular facts and circumstances at issue from a lawyer, finance, tax, or other licensed person in the recipient's state, country, or other appropriate licensing jurisdiction. No part of the show, its guests, host, content, or otherwise should be considered a solicitation for investment in any way. All views expressed in any way by guests are their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the show or its host(s). The host and/or its guests may own some of the assets discussed in this or other episodes, including compensation for advertisements, sponsorships, and/or endorsements. This show is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as financial, tax, legal, or any advice whatsoever.

Effective June 2025, I did a major improved revision on the sound quality for all my WarNotes episodes retroactively thanks to the technology at Podsworth. The banal and humble generator set is a secret to destroying US combat power. I wanted to flesh out a thought experiment on the vulnerabilities of the US war machine in its expeditionary mode in future wars of choice if a critical node of its operations for US efficacy were specifically targeted, in this case, generator sets;. these range from small portable units to large, trailer-mounted systems, including the Tactical Quiet Generator (TQG) and the Advanced Medium Mobile Power Source (AMMPS). In the future near-peer and peer fight, salvo competition will be the preeminent means by which one country will kinetically overwhelm the other in a fight. I discuss the ways in which the West is in an existential hazard of being woefully under-prepared to meet the threat if Western forces go toe to toe with regional hegemons in the East or West. The US is NOT prepared for the war of leakers in which the inadequate missile defense systems and strategy now deployed will be overwhelmed if it enters a war of choice with China or Russia. It isn't simply the peer competitors but the smaller players like North Korea and Yemen are demonstrating that the US and its allies can't cash the checks they boast about. Once again, the US should stand down, reassess, re-calibrate and stop thinking defense is a four letter word. References: Millennium Challenge: The Real Story of a Corrupted Military Exercise and its Legacy STP 9-91D13-SM-TG: TACTICAL POWER GENERATION SPECIALIST MOS 91D (2018) Winning The Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air And Missile Defenses The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age Space Based Interceptor Sizing Methodology Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Books: Nassim Taleb Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game Mark Gunzinger & Bryan Clark Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defense Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare My Substack Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

On this solo episode, I share my favorite soundtrack moments in horror (which is separate from my favorite horror movie original scores, which will be its own episode). Movies mentioned include: Dawn of the Dead, Final Destination 3, Shaun of the Dead, Us, American Psycho, Silence of the Lambs, X, Zombieland, Cocaine Bear, Scream, The Strangers: Prey at Night, Urban Legend, Beetlejuice, The Autopsy of Jane Doe, Insidious, The Purge: Election Year, Final Destination: Bloodlines, Together, Black Swan, and American Horror Story: Coven. Tangents include: books about the monstrous feminine, my cats, hanging out with Ripley, headphones, and bands.

Nick Stageberg is the CEO of Black Swan Real Estate and a former tech entrepreneur who scaled a $13M startup to a $100M exit. He later led 13 engineering teams at Mayo Clinic before building a thriving real estate portfolio with his wife, Elaine. Today, Nick leverages his tech-driven approach to give Black Swan a distinct edge in the multifamily industry. Here's some of the topics we covered: From Tech Career to Real Estate Freedom How to Turn Setbacks Into Your Greatest Wins Warren Buffet's Surprising Take on D Class Properties Using Real Estate Profits to Create Lasting Impact Must-Know Tips for First-Time Investors How to Land a Mentor Without Spending a Dime Why Real Estate Beats Even the Highest-Paying W2 Job To find out more about partnering or investing in a multifamily deal: Text Partner to 72345 or email Partner@RodKhleif.com For more about Rod and his real estate investing journey go to www.rodkhleif.com

Nick Stageberg is the CEO of Black Swan Real Estate and a former tech entrepreneur who scaled a $13M startup to a $100M exit. He later led 13 engineering teams at Mayo Clinic before building a thriving real estate portfolio with his wife, Elaine. Today Nick leverages his tech-driven approach to give Black Swan a distinct edge in the multifamily industry.   Here's some of the topics we covered:   From Tech Career to Real Estate Freedom How to Turn Setbacks Into Your Greatest Wins Warren Buffet's Surprising Take on D Class Properties Using Real Estate Profits to Create Lasting Impact Must-Know Tips for First-Time Investors How to Land a Mentor Without Spending a Dime Why Real Estate Beats Even the Highest-Paying W2 Job   To find out more about partnering or investing in a multifamily deal: Text Partner to 72345 or email Partner@RodKhleif.com    For more about Rod and his real estate investing journey go to www.rodkhleif.com