Podcasts about Black swan

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  • Dec 2, 2021LATEST
Black swan

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Best podcasts about Black swan

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Latest podcast episodes about Black swan

Coin Stories
Alex Mashinsky: Bitcoin Builds a New System For Us All

Coin Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2021 66:18


This week's Coin Stories features Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky. (Bio Below) *** Coin Stories is brought to you in part by The Bitcoin Conference and Okcoin. BITCOIN 2022 will be the BIGGEST BITCOIN EVENT IN HISTORY held in Miami on April 6-9, 2022. For 10% Off your Bitcoin Conference Ticket head to https://b.tc/conference and use code COINSTORIES *** Okcoin is on a mission to make crypto investing and trading easily accessible to anyone around the world. We are building the next generation of tools to help onboard the investors and traders who have been on the fence about crypto. Okcoin a globally licensed exchange with offices in San Francisco, Miami, Malta, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. We are a collective of global citizens with a common passion to help decentralize finance and level the economic playing field for everyone around the world. Visit https://go.okcoin.com/natalie for $50 in Bitcoin when you sign up. -- Alex Full Biography via Mashinsky.com: Alex Mashinsky was born into communism, reared under socialism, and is currently thriving under capitalism. He is a prominent entrepreneur who has founded several companies over the years, including Celsius Network, GroundLink, Transit Wireless, Elematics and Arbinet. Alex disrupted several industries but he is most known as the inventor of VOIP which today enables over 1B people worldwide to use free voice over the internet for free. His new startup Celsius Network, is disrupting the banks, it is a community-based Proof-of-Stake blockchain protocol allowing members to borrow dollars against their crypto assets and to earn interest when they deposit (and lend) their crypto out. he wants 7.5B people to go From VOIP to MOIP (Money over IP) Alex's success as an entrepreneur stems from his acute ability to identify future trends, assemble world-class teams and raise enough money to fund his projects. Two of his companies, Arbinet and Transit Wireless achieved a monopolistic hold in their respective industries and pioneered new business models and groundbreaking technologies. Alex has a long history with high tech, evidenced by his powerful intellectual property portfolio. He has authored over 50 patents that cover aspects of VOIP, Smart Grid, Ad exchanges, Groupon, Twitter, Skype, App Store, Netflix streaming concept and many other top performing web companies. He is one of the leading evangelists of web-based exchanges. Due to his extensive experience as a prolific inventor and a business strategist, Alex has been a featured speaker at over 250 international conferences. He has also made numerous TV appearances on business networks and talk shows. He has received numerous awards, notably the prestigious Albert Einstein Technology Medal in 2000, the Technology Foresight Award for Innovation (presented in Geneva at Telecom '99) and Crain's Top Entrepreneur Award in 2010. He has also been nominated for E&Y's Entrepreneur of the Year Award in 2002 and 2011. He recently was named "Top 100 In Crypto" by CoinTelegraph. After years of entrepreneurship, Alex subsequently gravitated towards investing in startups, founding his early stage venture capital firm, Governing Dynamics. Over the years, Alex has raised over $1 billion in venture and private equity funds to help position his startups as leaders in their fields. Arbinet's fundraising efforts were even documented in an HBS case study in 2001. Currently based in New York, Alex serves as a Managing Partner of Governing Dynamics. The firm has invested in Cryptocurencies and ICO's as well as startups focused on AI/ML, biotech and cybersecurity. Alex has invested in over 60 startups over the years, recording many successes and an equal number of failures. As a prominent figure in the New York entrepreneurial scene, he has previously been a member of the YPO's NYC chamber. He believes that "the secret to success is finding something to do in which your skills can exceed your ambitions." -- Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction and Discount Codes 2:01 Alex young life in Ukraine 3:42 Why Alex's family fled to Israel 5:59 From communism to socialism 7:54 Alex's education 10:52 Bitcoin is the Black Swan 11:45 Why move to the U.S. 12:44 Alex early career in commodities trading 15:29 Alex entrepreneurial path 17:46 VOIP revolution 18:47 Alex's great success and financial security 21:07 Where Alex's spirit comes from 23:16 Learning from failure 25:59 Discovering Bitcoin 29:33 Going down the rabbit hole 33:12 Bitcoin maximalism vs alts 35:55 Earning high yield on coins 38:40 Why Alex wanted to give back 41:54 How does Celsius work 44:18 Stable coins 46:43 Taking from the rich to give to the poor 51:12 The Celsius name 51:37 Bitcoin and mass adoption 54:02 Regulation of yield products 56:41 Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar 59:57 Money printing or market crash 1:02:54 Alex reflections 1:04:17 Price prediction

The Global Politico
Marietje Schaake calls bullsh*t on Silicon Valley's self-regulation mantra

The Global Politico

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2021 25:45


It seems like there's bipartisan compromise for once in Washington, and it's over one commitment: it's time to reel in Big Tech. But Marietje Schaake has been sounding that alarm for years. Once one of the youngest members of the European Parliament, Schaake now helps lead the academic discussion around how to regulate some of the biggest companies in the world, like Facebook and Apple, as a policy fellow at Stanford University. She tells POLITICO's Ryan Heath how she aims to reform Silicon Valley from within, and what it's like when some of her students take jobs at tech giants.  Marietje Schaake is the international policy director at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center. Ryan Heath is the host of the "Global Insider" podcast and authors the newsletter.  Olivia Reingold produces “Global Insider.”  Irene Noguchi  edits “Global Insider” and is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

We Are Not Saved
Eschatologist #11 Black Swans

We Are Not Saved

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2021 6:18


Lately people have been using the idea that something is a black swan as excuse for being powerless. as an excuse. But this is not only a massive abdication of responsibility, it's also an equally massive misunderstanding of the moment. Because preparedness has no meaning if it's not directed towards preparing for black swans. There is nothing else worth preparing for. The future is the product of the black swans we have yet to encounter.

Mises Media
Luca Dellanna on the Power of Adaptation: Adapt or Die

Mises Media

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2021


Ceaseless flux. Those are words Ludwig von Mises used to describe the perpetual change in business conditions that entrepreneurs experience. The consequent need, he told us, is for a process of constant adjustment. The current word for that process is adaptation. Economics For Business talks to Luca Dellanna, a leading business expert who advises companies of all sizes on managing the challenge of continuous adaptation. Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights Adaptation is a necessary capacity of all businesses. Adaptation is a necessity. The marketplace changes, customers change, technology changes. Change is the norm. Firms that don't adapt will suffer and potentially die, so adaptation must become the norm for business. In complex systems theory, adaptation is the selection of strategies or actions that enhance survival or any other measure of success (or fitness, as its sometimes called) amidst swirling change. In business, adaptation means choosing your degree and pace of change. Change will be externally imposed if it is not internally embraced. Businesses can influence the level of change impact. They can critically examine their mental models, and assess their products, processes, beliefs, and people, to evaluate their fitness for adapting to market change. To avoid change being imposed from outside the firm — to avoid negative natural selection, in the evolutionary metaphor – all layers of the firm must embrace change, and proactively adapt. Eliminate unfit products and processes, pursue the development of new ones that are better adapted, and upgrade people resources through thoughtful hiring and active learning. Adaptation is different than responsiveness — it's embracing harm. We talk a lot about a business's responsiveness to customer wants and preferences, especially when those preferences are fluid and incompletely articulated and require interpretation. Responsiveness is critical — but it's different from adaptation. It's response to an external signal. Adaptiveness is embracing change inside the firm. Luca Dellanna has a striking way of communicating this: he advises his clients to deliberately expose themselves to what he calls “harm” — new problems never before encountered. The exposure must not be to a problem that could overwhelm the firm, but one that can be addressed at a subsidiary level or component level or via adjustment in a shared mental model. Luca calls this “small harm” — specific problems (e.g., the price of a product or service compared to the customer's willingness to pay). Proactively probe the problem, e.g., in a high pricing test, generate feedback and actively use the learning to adapt. Another word for “small harm” is stressors: situations that put stress on the firm. Set up systems to seek out these stressors so that adaptation is deliberate, and can be enculturated, rather than wait for a crisis that requires an emergency response. Lack of discomfort is a problem to avoid. Identify the leading indicators that describe the conditions that will change the future. Lagging indicators — such as revenue — are metrics that describe the past. There are leading indicators available such as number of customer contacts (describing what the pipeline might look like in the future), and satisfaction scores (describing future repeat sales). Luca recommends pairing one lagging indicator with one leading indicator to develop a metrics system. This is not the same as popular consultant-proposed metrics systems such as OKR (Objectives and Key Results). Objectives are not leading indicators. The best leading indicators are behaviors, because these can be easily adjusted if observed to be in need of change. Falling behind on objectives does not yield an actionable response if not linked to a causal factor. Inadequate behaviors (e.g., conducting a sales call without following the proven process) can be addressed, especially if they are clearly linked to positive outcomes. This is the same principle as Amazon's focus on what they call controllable inputs, and Amazon knows a lot about driving business growth. There are several strategies to pursue adaptation. Redundancy (having more than needed): A focus on efficiency and “no waste” can be detrimental to adaptation if it leaves no resources for experimentation and exploration. Employees need time to work on new things, not just on current tasks and issues. Bottom-up initiatives: Central command and control can't run everything, anticipate every harm, or plan every experiment. Ensure entrepreneurial empowerment of front-line employees and functions so that they can initiate learning. Avoid game-over: In experimenting, calibrate the risk to ensure that a negative result is not overwhelming, and, in regular operations, be aware of any possibility of a major crisis — a Black Swan event — and be sure that it will not destroy the firm or deliver a setback from which it will be hard to recover. Never stop exploring, in a culture of anti-fragility. Nassim Nicholas Taleb famously coined the term “anti-fragile”. The company that has the most well-developed capacity to learn from problems and harm is the most anti-fragile. The culture of anti-fragility is always to surface problems when they are encountered and address them at the source. Luca stresses that culture is built when everyone in the company can see a consistent set of actions in which the trade-offs of addressing problems are consistent with the stated vision. For example, a culture of safe operations will be reinforced when safety precautions are taken even when the cost, in time or money or both, is high. The leading indicator is that every individual and every operation and sub-operation is following safe practices, and that the company readily commits resources when a new safety procedure or installation is proven to be effective. If the trade-off is made that the new procedure is effective but too expensive to install, the culture will be punctured because the company has acted contrary to its declared vision. Additional Resources "The Power Of Adaptation" (PDF): Mises.org/E4B_146_PDF Read Luca Dellanna's book, The Power Of Adaptation: Mises.org/E4B_146_Book Another application of adaptation, Teams Are Adaptive Systems: 12 Principles For Effective Management by Luca Dellanna: Mises.org/E4B_146_Book2 Visit Luca Dellanna's website to find more resources: Luca-Dellanna.com E-mail Luca at luca@luca-dellanna.com

Interviews
Luca Dellanna on the Power of Adaptation: Adapt or Die

Interviews

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2021


Ceaseless flux. Those are words Ludwig von Mises used to describe the perpetual change in business conditions that entrepreneurs experience. The consequent need, he told us, is for a process of constant adjustment. The current word for that process is adaptation. Economics For Business talks to Luca Dellanna, a leading business expert who advises companies of all sizes on managing the challenge of continuous adaptation. Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights Adaptation is a necessary capacity of all businesses. Adaptation is a necessity. The marketplace changes, customers change, technology changes. Change is the norm. Firms that don't adapt will suffer and potentially die, so adaptation must become the norm for business. In complex systems theory, adaptation is the selection of strategies or actions that enhance survival or any other measure of success (or fitness, as its sometimes called) amidst swirling change. In business, adaptation means choosing your degree and pace of change. Change will be externally imposed if it is not internally embraced. Businesses can influence the level of change impact. They can critically examine their mental models, and assess their products, processes, beliefs, and people, to evaluate their fitness for adapting to market change. To avoid change being imposed from outside the firm — to avoid negative natural selection, in the evolutionary metaphor – all layers of the firm must embrace change, and proactively adapt. Eliminate unfit products and processes, pursue the development of new ones that are better adapted, and upgrade people resources through thoughtful hiring and active learning. Adaptation is different than responsiveness — it's embracing harm. We talk a lot about a business's responsiveness to customer wants and preferences, especially when those preferences are fluid and incompletely articulated and require interpretation. Responsiveness is critical — but it's different from adaptation. It's response to an external signal. Adaptiveness is embracing change inside the firm. Luca Dellanna has a striking way of communicating this: he advises his clients to deliberately expose themselves to what he calls “harm” — new problems never before encountered. The exposure must not be to a problem that could overwhelm the firm, but one that can be addressed at a subsidiary level or component level or via adjustment in a shared mental model. Luca calls this “small harm” — specific problems (e.g., the price of a product or service compared to the customer's willingness to pay). Proactively probe the problem, e.g., in a high pricing test, generate feedback and actively use the learning to adapt. Another word for “small harm” is stressors: situations that put stress on the firm. Set up systems to seek out these stressors so that adaptation is deliberate, and can be enculturated, rather than wait for a crisis that requires an emergency response. Lack of discomfort is a problem to avoid. Identify the leading indicators that describe the conditions that will change the future. Lagging indicators — such as revenue — are metrics that describe the past. There are leading indicators available such as number of customer contacts (describing what the pipeline might look like in the future), and satisfaction scores (describing future repeat sales). Luca recommends pairing one lagging indicator with one leading indicator to develop a metrics system. This is not the same as popular consultant-proposed metrics systems such as OKR (Objectives and Key Results). Objectives are not leading indicators. The best leading indicators are behaviors, because these can be easily adjusted if observed to be in need of change. Falling behind on objectives does not yield an actionable response if not linked to a causal factor. Inadequate behaviors (e.g., conducting a sales call without following the proven process) can be addressed, especially if they are clearly linked to positive outcomes. This is the same principle as Amazon's focus on what they call controllable inputs, and Amazon knows a lot about driving business growth. There are several strategies to pursue adaptation. Redundancy (having more than needed): A focus on efficiency and “no waste” can be detrimental to adaptation if it leaves no resources for experimentation and exploration. Employees need time to work on new things, not just on current tasks and issues. Bottom-up initiatives: Central command and control can't run everything, anticipate every harm, or plan every experiment. Ensure entrepreneurial empowerment of front-line employees and functions so that they can initiate learning. Avoid game-over: In experimenting, calibrate the risk to ensure that a negative result is not overwhelming, and, in regular operations, be aware of any possibility of a major crisis — a Black Swan event — and be sure that it will not destroy the firm or deliver a setback from which it will be hard to recover. Never stop exploring, in a culture of anti-fragility. Nassim Nicholas Taleb famously coined the term “anti-fragile”. The company that has the most well-developed capacity to learn from problems and harm is the most anti-fragile. The culture of anti-fragility is always to surface problems when they are encountered and address them at the source. Luca stresses that culture is built when everyone in the company can see a consistent set of actions in which the trade-offs of addressing problems are consistent with the stated vision. For example, a culture of safe operations will be reinforced when safety precautions are taken even when the cost, in time or money or both, is high. The leading indicator is that every individual and every operation and sub-operation is following safe practices, and that the company readily commits resources when a new safety procedure or installation is proven to be effective. If the trade-off is made that the new procedure is effective but too expensive to install, the culture will be punctured because the company has acted contrary to its declared vision. Additional Resources "The Power Of Adaptation" (PDF): Mises.org/E4B_146_PDF Read Luca Dellanna's book, The Power Of Adaptation: Mises.org/E4B_146_Book Another application of adaptation, Teams Are Adaptive Systems: 12 Principles For Effective Management by Luca Dellanna: Mises.org/E4B_146_Book2 Visit Luca Dellanna's website to find more resources: Luca-Dellanna.com E-mail Luca at luca@luca-dellanna.com

ASCE Plot Points Podcast
What would Robert Moses do? Part 1: The need to design for black-swan events

ASCE Plot Points Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2021 16:43


John Williams is speaking at the 2021 ASCE International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure, Dec. 7, in a session called "Post-Black-Swan-Event Infrastructure: Lessons Learned and Plans for the Future."So, today kicks off a special three-part series, Williams, the CEO of Autocase and board chair for the Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure, talks about some of the key ideas from the session. But the conversation also becomes almost a roadmap toward a new civil engineering philosophy for 2022, from Robert Moses to modern ideas of sustainable infrastructure.

So, We Watched This
S2 Episode 12- Black Swan Review

So, We Watched This

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 20:40


In this episode of So, We Watched This, Reese and Natalie review Black Swan. Thank you so much for listening! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

Methodically Processing Systems
Episode 44 - The Fallen

Methodically Processing Systems

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 14:25


If you want to win, you've got to embrace losing.  Get Season 1, 2, and 3 for just $7 until November 25, 2021 in the Fall Bundle. Further Reading: The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb The Art of War by Sun Tzu Tao Te Ching by Laozi  Napoleon by Andrew Roberts  

Radio Bypass Podcast
RadioBypass Episode 231

Radio Bypass Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 52:27


This week we have Rock and Roll music that DESERVES to be heard from Ronnie Montrose, Killer Dwarfs, Electric Guitars, Great White, Saxon, Queensryche, Rough Cutt, Platinum Overdose, Enforcer, PSSR, and Black Swan. Long live Rock and Roll!

Once Upon a Time at the Oscars
Black Swan (2010) – Once Upon a Time at the Oscars

Once Upon a Time at the Oscars

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2021 55:54


Horror at the Oscars!? One of the most overlooked genres every year at the Academy Awards got it's time to shine in 2011. Black Swan blends horror with the grace and beauty of ballet, and we break it all down on this week's episode. Up Next: Inception (2010) directed by Christopher Nolan Special thanks to Sean C. for being generous supporter of Once Upon a Time at the Oscars! You can find more info on the show as well as the full film list and watch order on our website: www.outaopodcast.com Or use our Letterboxd list! Support for Once Upon a Time at the Oscars is provided by our Patreon backers. For as little as $2 a month you can help support our show as well as receive fun benefits, including the chance to vote for what film you think deserves to win Best Picture every year! Subscribe to the show – Apple, Google, Spotify, Feed (Copy the url into the podcast app of your choice) If you like the show, please consider leaving a rating or review on iTunes or your podcast player of choice! Help us reach more listeners! You can stay up to date with the show by following us at: facebook.com/outaopodcast twitter.com/outaopodcast instagram.com/onceuponatimeattheoscars Once Upon a Time at the Oscars is the weekly podcast where we take on the gauntlet of watching every single film that was nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards! Starting with the films of 1927, Kyle and Marilee break down these movies every week. Each episode is part review, part trivia, and part critique. This podcast is intended for anybody that loves movies. We have zero background in the film industry, we're just a film-loving couple that thought it'd be fun to go on this odyssey together, with all of you! Let us know what you thought of the film! You can send your thoughts and we'll read them on an upcoming ceremony episode: outaopodcast@gmail.com Thanks for tuning in! See you at the movies, Kyle and Marilee

Heads Up Adviser
Market Update: Healthcare And Beyond

Heads Up Adviser

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2021 32:59


Arrange a one-on-one call with John Sbrocco and Crystal Hoarau. Learn the Virtue Health Consortium process, and start prospecting with NO IMQs and NO CLAIMS DATA >> CLICK HERE TO CHOOSE DATE / TIME We've witnessed dramatic changes in the market in the past few months, and as Q4 is well under way, it's not getting any easier...Whether you think that the new data will impact your business or not, it will for sure impact the prospects and their decision-making.Join John Sbrocco and Craig Lack for an informative and data-rich episode of the Heads Up Adviser Show "MARKET UPDATE." Here's what we'll cover: Why financial marketshare going wild for healthcareThe Black Swan events in healthcareClient's priorities: Risk manager or Disruption protector  

The Intentional Encourager Podcast
Episode 179 with Entrepreuner and Business Coach Joseph Oliver

The Intentional Encourager Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2021 56:21


Entrepreuner and Business Coach Joseph Oliver joins this episode and talks about: Getting laid off in April 2020 and having no idea what to do to support his family. Flushing out the blind spots. The Black Swan effect in his life.  The opposite of "Blue Sky" thinking. The systematic and creative system of Job farming. Action replacing apathy. The investment he made that felt big. Meeting the person that changed his life. The simplicity of business. The flywheel that runs the Economic engine. Losing logic in the midst of emotions. The history behind someone's eyes.  His "Hope Road" experience.  Re-thinking his life and giving it to the Lord after a physical reaction to doing drugs. Keeping it simple and staying optimistic.  Connect with Joseph on Twitter @OliverFlips and Instagram @Oliversflipfinds Watch this episode on The Intentional Encourager Podcast YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/zgyejtQFsM4

Gains with Andy Giersher
Bitcoin Momentum Plays, Stock Market Bullishness & Black Swan Events

Gains with Andy Giersher

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2021 44:16


On today's show, Mark Hulbert joined us to discuss extreme stock market bullishness, momentum plays in bitcoin, and how to ward off so-called Black Swan events. He also shared his take on crypto and financial markets from a stock market Contrarian view. Plus, we talked about how the lack of bears in the stock market could be a harbinger of things to come.   Mark Hulbert  Investment Columnist for The Wall Street Journal, Barron's & MarketWatch.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Creative Differences
Episode.150| Eternals, Spencer, and the Wicked Witch of the West

Creative Differences

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2021 73:15


A new Marvel movie means another ridiculously long review, but it's our 150th episode, so it's cool! Join us as we review Chloé Zhao's Eternals as well as Pablo Larraín's Spencer. Are the Eternals the most attractive Marvel team? Is Spencer the love child of The Crown and Black Swan? We've got the answers here! […]

Simply Stanish
Ep 6- Jiving All Day

Simply Stanish

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2021 57:51


Our in-house choreographer, Mica, fills us in on Just Dance 2022's new kpop offerings, and Emily is still obsessed with harnesses. We also rave about Somi's new album and get into new and new-ish groups bugAboo and BLACKSWAN.

Where Did the Road Go?
Cinema Symbolism with Robert Sullivan - Oct 23, 2021

Where Did the Road Go?

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2021


Seriah interviews researcher and author Robert W. Sullivan about hidden images and symbolism in film. Topics include the 9/11 terror attacks, information moving from future to past, unintentional prediction, alternative explanations of the twin towers collapse, life imitating art/art imitating life, archetypes; the films "Vanilla Sky", "The Matrix", "Fight Club", "Donnie Darko" and "The Patriot" containing synchronistic 9/11 imagery; Gnosticism in film, "The Simpsons", rap group The Coup's planned album cover, "The Lone Gunmen" episode predicting 9/11, the band Dream Theater's album release on 9/11/01, Donald Trump imagery appearing in film and TV, Platonism in creativity and art, "Midsommar", "Hereditary", director Ari Aster, "The Exorcist", numerology in film, Saint John's Day significance and references, allusions linking one movie to another, "The Wicker Man", Christopher Lee, "The Witch", director Robert Eggers, John Dee and Enochian magick, Anton LeVay and the Church of Satan, Michael Aquino and the Temple of Set, the Satanic Bible and the book "Might is Right", Satanic panic, false memories, the film "House of the Devil", alchemical cinema, occult casting, deep analysis of "Joker", "Black Swan", director Richard Kelly, "Donnie Darko", "Back to the Future", personal synchronicities in film, "S. Darko", "The Box", "Dark City", Valentinianism, Dr. Daniel Paul Schreber, Saint Albertus Magnus and AI, Saint Thomas Aquinas, the golem, Hermeticism, Giordano Bruno, mnemonic devices, the movie "Evilspeak", astronomical allegories, and much more! This is a fascinating discussion with a true cinephile who can identify a dizzying array of Easter eggs and references in numerous movies! - Recap by Vincent Treewell Outro Music by Seasons of the Wolf with Reignite the Sun Download

The Rough Cut
The French Dispatch

The Rough Cut

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2021 51:12


Editor - Andrew Weisblum ACE THE FRENCH DISPATCH editor, Andrew Weisblum ACE joins forces for the fifth time with director Wes Anderson.  Andy's history with Wes began with THE DARJEELING LIMITED (2007) and was followed up by FANTASTIC MR. FOX (2009), MOONRISE KINGDOM (2012) and ISLE OF DOGS (2018). THE FRENCH DISPATCH was written, directed, and produced by Wes Anderson and stars an ensemble cast featuring Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Léa Seydoux, Frances McDormand, Timothée Chalamet, Jeffrey Wright, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson and many more talented actors.  It tells the tale of the French foreign bureau of a fictional Kansas newspaper, compelled to create its final issue when Arthur Howitzer Jr., the editor of the newspaper, dies suddenly of a heart attack. According to the wishes expressed in his will, publication of the newspaper will be suspended following one final farewell issue in which three articles from past editions of the paper are republished, along with his obituary. The project was first mentioned in August 2018 as an untitled musical set after World War II.  That December, the film was officially announced with Anderson calling it a "love letter to journalists."  Filming took place between November 2018 and March 2019.  Following a year delay, THE FRENCH DISPATCH had its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival on July 12, 2021 and was theatrically released in the United States by Searchlight Pictures on October 22, 2021. ANDREW WEISBLUM ACE Aside from his rich body of work with Wes Anderson, Andy is also a frequent collaborator with director Darren Aronofsky.  In addition to his Oscar®-nominated work on Aronofsky's BLACK SWAN (2010), Andy also collaborated with him on THE FOUNTAIN (2006), BROKEN ENGLISH (2007), THE WRESTLER (2008), NOAH (2014) and MOTHER! (2017).  The two are currently at work on Aronofsky's next film, THE WHALE. Editing The French Dispatch In our discussion with THE FRENCH DISPATCH editor, Andrew Weisblum ACE, we talk about: Editing from an animatic Wes Anderson's disdain for ADR Using color and framing for punctuation The fun of splits and morphs and sub-frame editing When an editor has to neuter a film The Credits Get your free 100GB of media transfer at MASV Visit ExtremeMusic for all your production audio needs Check out the free trial of Media Composer | Ultimate Subscribe to The Rough Cut podcast and never miss an episode Visit The Rough Cut on YouTube

Movie Amigos Podcast
Ep. 21 Kinda Like Acting (Anniversary)

Movie Amigos Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2021 96:41


In this episode, the Amigos kinda celebrate their first anniversary as Movie Amigos while they kinda converse about the art of "acting!" We like movies and we're amigos. Join us and be our movie amigos. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/movieamigospodcast/ Find us wherever you listen to podcasts! Letterboxd profiles: Gila https://letterboxd.com/gilasantos1/ Josh https://letterboxd.com/joshman972/ Juve https://letterboxd.com/mrfalcon/ Movies mentioned this episode: Titanic (1997) Air Bud (1997) 101 Dalmatians (1996) Mulan (1998) The Night of the Hunter (1955) Inglourious Basterds (2009) Perfect Blue / パーフェクトブルー (1997) Dragonball Evolution (2009) The Last Airbender (2010) Finding Nemo (2003) Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) Black Widow (2021) Midsommar (2019) Snow White and the Huntsman (2012) Abduction (2011) The Princess Diaries (2001) The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (2013) The Blind Side (2009) Mirror, Mirror (2012) Pretty Woman (1990) My Fair Lady (1964) The Sound of Music (1965) Notting Hill (1999) Runaway Bride (1999) Erin Brockovich (2000) Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) Little Women (2019) The Suicide Squad (2021) Beauty and The Beast (2017) The Circle (2017) Toy Story (1995) Forrest Gump (1994) Lost in Translation (2003) The Terminal (2004) Twilight (2008) You've Got Mail (1998) Captain Phillips (2013) Marriage Story (2019) Les Misérables (2012) Fast Five (2011) Joker (2019) Zack Snyder's Justice League (2021) Suicide Squad (2016) Transformers (2007) Jojo Rabbit (2019) Fighting with My Family (2019) Spider-Man (2002) The Lighthouse (2019) My Left Foot (1989) There Will Be Blood (2007) Nightcrawler (2014) Phantom Thread (2017) I, Tonya (2017) Good Time (2017) Hereditary (2018) Call Me By Your Name (2017) The Shining (1980) Gone Girl (2014) Black Swan (2010) Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999) Léon: The Professional / Léon (1994) The Prestige (2006) The Greatest Showman (2017) Hot Fuzz (2007) Maleficent (2014) Cinderella (2015) The Jungle Book (2016) Aladdin (2019) Lady and the Tramp (2019) Dumbo (2019) The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement (2004) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) Alice in Wonderland (2010) Interstellar (2014) Ella Enchanted (2004) Miss Congeniality (2000) Gravity (2013) The Devil Wears Prada (2006) Kramer vs. Kramer (1979) La La Land (2016) Blade Runner 2049 (2017) Blue Valentine (2010) Crazy, Stupid, Love. (2011) Finding Dory (2016) Onward (2020) The Godfather (1972) Shakespeare in Love (1998) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) Luca (2021) The Boy (2016) The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) She's the Man (2006) Both intro and outro music: Beat provided by https://freebeats.io Produced by White Hot RELEASE CODE: 55514 For any inquiries: Email us at movieamigospodcast@gmail.com

Listen To Me Speak
"The Calm Before The Storm"

Listen To Me Speak

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 68:54


On this episode: Kayla gives an in depth review of Black Swan, shares her thoughts on the first episode of the new show Queens, digs into the drama surrounding Ruby Rose and Batwoman, and much more! Song of the week: Nothing Compares by The Weeknd --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/kayla-taylrr/support

Spiritually Hungry
66. Intuition: Your Roadmap to Better Destinations

Spiritually Hungry

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2021 48:30


Did you know that you have a superpower? Our sense of intuition, that gut feeling we sometimes get in various aspects of life, is rooted in the energy of the universe and gives us the power to see beyond the logic and facts in front of us. Intuition helps us identify red flags to keep us safe and illuminates hidden messages from the universe to steer us in the direction we want to go. When we put in the spiritual work to live a life of purpose, our intuition strengthens, helping us make the right choices and receive the answers we seek. Tune in as Monica and Michael share tips and tools for developing our intuition, which, in turn, leads us away from our ego's wishes and towards the true desires of our soul. Often, our intuition is right even when our logic says the complete opposite. – Michael BergFurther readings: The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb

EM Weekly's Podcast
Todd DeVoe IAEM 2021 Moving from Resilience to Antifragile

EM Weekly's Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2021 58:13


Creating the antifragile emergency manager has many challenges. We must open the conversation about resiliency with an eye on how modern disasters are increasingly complex. Today we are facing unknown risks as new types of disasters and crises appear on the world stage. The emergency manager must approach climate change and climate variability as they do for any other disaster. We must face both the Gray Rhino and the Black Swan events with a level of clarity, even as we have an incomplete understanding of its impact globally. We must consider the challenges of interconnected risks and the resulting cascading disasters. These events are dramatically changing in scope, severity, and impact. The changes in global emergency and crisis management are driven by a combination of global risks (globalization, urbanization, and climate vulnerability) and social and economic risks (aging, a larger gap between the rich and the poor, disaggregation of infrastructure, especially in urban areas, and gaps in education and medical accesses). We will explore the increasing interconnected risks. These connections lead to larger and more complex disasters such as Katrina and the tripartite (earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disruptions) of the Tohoku Disaster, which seriously challenges traditional governance's existing capabilities, policy, and institutional structures for effective disaster management. And we will inspect the impacts of modern cascading and synergistic disasters are often the result of unanticipated and unappreciated global to local risks and systems linkages that occur for various reasons.

French Curiosity Club
Julie Charlet- Danseuse étoile au Ballet du Capitole

French Curiosity Club

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2021 65:48


Née à Lille, Julie a étudié la danse à Marseille, avant d'intégrer pendant 10 ans la troupe du Northern Ballet à Leeds en Angleterre. En 2013, elle s'installe à Toulouse pour rejoindre le Ballet du Capitole, où elle sera élevée au rang de danseuse étoile en 2019. Que l'on pense aux tutus et paillettes ou à la descente aux enfers de Natalie Portman dans Black Swan, le monde du ballet est entouré d'un imaginaire riche en mythes et clichés. Le 30 Septembre, Julie est revenue avec humour et enthousiasme sur ses débuts, la réalité du quotidien d'une danseuse, les montées d'adrénaline avant chaque représentation, sa manière d'appréhender les frustrations et les échecs mais surtout l'importance de s'écouter et de rester soi-même ! Laissez-vous emporter dans son univers!

What's Your Name Again? with Kurt Caceres
A Role that Changed the World - with Brett Claywell - Part I

What's Your Name Again? with Kurt Caceres

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 48:56


Most actors deep down hope they can play roles that have an impact on society, move people with emotion, and in the rare case, become part of something much bigger than all of us. Brett Claywell sits with America's Podcaster, Kurt Caceres, to share his experience as a heterosexual young man from the south, playing one of the first gay characters on television, performing the first gay love scene in history and winning a Daytime Emmy all for this portrayal. This came at a time when gay marriage was only legal in a few states, and most of his family didn't understand nor could accept him choosing to play this role. This is the same kid who was put on hold for one of the leads opposite Natalie Portman, in the film Black Swan. After he auditioned for hours in a dark intimidating room for the legendary director Darren Aronofsky himself. Eventually the role went to Sebastian Stan, but this is the journey of an actor. Unknown to most, Brett played basketball on one of the most high profile national high school teams in the nation, and this is the reason he got the part of Tim Smith in the CW hit show, One Tree Hill. His father used to make him throw 100 pitches and shoot 100 free throws everyday after school. It's all about the work ethic, and he says that all his successful friends in Hollywood didn't make it to the top on a whim, they hustled and grinded day and night behind the scenes for years, unseen to most. Winning Emmy Awards. Playing on a hit show. Being groomed for one of the leads in a classic American film. And now he has all but retired from the business and has moved on to new ventures. This is the life of an actor in Hollywood.Please Follow and Subscribe to the Podcast. Email: podcast@provenanceroom.comYoutube Channel:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRF42UoBNLo9DXv5BYQQCqgHost Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/kurt_caceres/Podcast Twitter:https://twitter.com/wyna_podcastPodcast Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/What.Your.Name.Again/Podcast Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/wyna.podcast/Production Company Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/provenance_room/Website:https://www.provenanceroom.com/wynaPlease Follow and Subscribe to the Podcast. Email: podcast@provenanceroom.com

Nexus
Warning: Black Swan event could wipe out your investments!

Nexus

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 26:00


The warnings are growing louder. Another world-shaking "Black Swan" event may be on its way - and it could affect us all. Something like the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the financial crisis that followed causing great destruction. But what is a Black Swan event and what form will it take this time? Could it be it be hyperinflation, rising interest rates, food shortages - or perhaps China's property market? China's second biggest property developer, Evergrande is on the brink of collapse, owing Chinese and Foreign creditors $305 billion. It came into further trouble when the Chinese government introduced its new, stricter, borrowing regulations last year called “three-red-line” policy which was meant to help make housing more affordable. And Evergrande is not the only one facing a debt crisis. What are your predictions?

New Books in Anthropology
Katherine Young, "Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu" (Orient Blackswan, 2021)

New Books in Anthropology

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 46:23


Katherine Young, Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu (Orient Blackswan, 2021) studies the interlinking of religious, social and political identities in modern Tamil Nadu. Through interviews with non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas of many castes, but especially belonging to the lower-caste groups, it analyses their histories of discrimination, their negotiation of lived realities, and hopes for the future. In addition, the author also addresses colonial changes, Telugu connections, the non-Brahmin movement, Dalit mobilisation, post-Independence caste hierarchies, government policies, party politics, Brahmin reactions, court cases, and inter-religious competition. Raj Balkaran is a scholar, educator, consultant, and life coach. For information see rajbalkaran.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/anthropology

New Books in Religion
Katherine Young, "Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu" (Orient Blackswan, 2021)

New Books in Religion

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 46:23


Katherine Young, Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu (Orient Blackswan, 2021) studies the interlinking of religious, social and political identities in modern Tamil Nadu. Through interviews with non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas of many castes, but especially belonging to the lower-caste groups, it analyses their histories of discrimination, their negotiation of lived realities, and hopes for the future. In addition, the author also addresses colonial changes, Telugu connections, the non-Brahmin movement, Dalit mobilisation, post-Independence caste hierarchies, government policies, party politics, Brahmin reactions, court cases, and inter-religious competition. Raj Balkaran is a scholar, educator, consultant, and life coach. For information see rajbalkaran.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/religion

New Books in Hindu Studies
Katherine Young, "Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu" (Orient Blackswan, 2021)

New Books in Hindu Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 46:23


Katherine Young, Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu (Orient Blackswan, 2021) studies the interlinking of religious, social and political identities in modern Tamil Nadu. Through interviews with non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas of many castes, but especially belonging to the lower-caste groups, it analyses their histories of discrimination, their negotiation of lived realities, and hopes for the future. In addition, the author also addresses colonial changes, Telugu connections, the non-Brahmin movement, Dalit mobilisation, post-Independence caste hierarchies, government policies, party politics, Brahmin reactions, court cases, and inter-religious competition. Raj Balkaran is a scholar, educator, consultant, and life coach. For information see rajbalkaran.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/indian-religions

New Books Network
Katherine Young, "Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu" (Orient Blackswan, 2021)

New Books Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 46:23


Katherine Young, Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu (Orient Blackswan, 2021) studies the interlinking of religious, social and political identities in modern Tamil Nadu. Through interviews with non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas of many castes, but especially belonging to the lower-caste groups, it analyses their histories of discrimination, their negotiation of lived realities, and hopes for the future. In addition, the author also addresses colonial changes, Telugu connections, the non-Brahmin movement, Dalit mobilisation, post-Independence caste hierarchies, government policies, party politics, Brahmin reactions, court cases, and inter-religious competition. Raj Balkaran is a scholar, educator, consultant, and life coach. For information see rajbalkaran.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

New Books in Sociology
Katherine Young, "Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu" (Orient Blackswan, 2021)

New Books in Sociology

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2021 46:23


Katherine Young, Turbulent Transformations: Non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas on Religion, Caste and Politics in Tamil Nadu (Orient Blackswan, 2021) studies the interlinking of religious, social and political identities in modern Tamil Nadu. Through interviews with non-Brahmin Śrīvaiṣṇavas of many castes, but especially belonging to the lower-caste groups, it analyses their histories of discrimination, their negotiation of lived realities, and hopes for the future. In addition, the author also addresses colonial changes, Telugu connections, the non-Brahmin movement, Dalit mobilisation, post-Independence caste hierarchies, government policies, party politics, Brahmin reactions, court cases, and inter-religious competition. Raj Balkaran is a scholar, educator, consultant, and life coach. For information see rajbalkaran.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/sociology

Alignment Newsletter Podcast
Alignment Newsletter #167: Concrete ML safety problems and their relevance to x-risk

Alignment Newsletter Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2021 17:10


Recorded by Robert Miles: http://robertskmiles.com More information about the newsletter here: https://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/ YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfGGFXwKpr-TJ5HfxEFaFCg HIGHLIGHTS Unsolved Problems in ML Safety (Dan Hendrycks, Nicholas Carlini, John Schulman, and Jacob Steinhardt) (summarized by Dan Hendrycks): To make the case for safety to the broader machine learning research community, this paper provides a revised and expanded collection of concrete technical safety research problems, namely: 1. Robustness: Create models that are resilient to adversaries, unusual situations, and Black Swan events. 2. Monitoring: Detect malicious use, monitor predictions, and discover unexpected model functionality. 3. Alignment: Build models that represent and safely optimize hard-to-specify human values. 4. External Safety: Use ML to address risks to how ML systems are handled, including cyberwarfare and global turbulence. Throughout, the paper attempts to clarify problem's motivation and provide concrete project ideas.   Dan Hendrycks' opinion: My coauthors and I wrote this paper with the ML research community as our target audience. Here are some thoughts on this topic: 1. The document includes numerous problems that, if left unsolved, would imply that ML systems are unsafe. We need the effort of thousands of researchers to address all of them. This means that the main safety discussions cannot stay within the confines of the relatively small EA community. I think we should aim to have over one third of the ML research community work on safety problems. We need the broader community to treat AI at least as seriously as safety for nuclear power plants. 2. To grow the ML research community, we need to suggest problems that can progressively build the community and organically grow support for elevating safety standards within the existing research ecosystem. Research agendas that pertain to AGI exclusively will not scale sufficiently, and such research will simply not get enough market share in time. If we do not get the machine learning community on board with proactively mitigating risks that already exist, we will have a harder time getting them to mitigate less familiar and unprecedented risks. Rather than try to win over the community with alignment philosophy arguments, I'll try winning them over with interesting problems and try to make work towards safer systems rewarded with prestige. 3. The benefits of a larger ML Safety community are numerous. They can decrease the cost of safety methods and increase the propensity to adopt them. Moreover, to make ML systems have desirable properties, it is necessary to rapidly accumulate incremental improvements, but this requires substantial growth since such gains cannot be produced by just a few card-carrying x-risk researchers with the purest intentions. 4. The community will fail to grow if we ignore near-term concerns or actively exclude or sneer at people who work on problems that are useful for both near- and long-term safety (such as adversaries). The alignment community will need to stop engaging in textbook territorialism and welcome serious hypercompetent researchers who do not post on internet forums or who happen not to subscribe to effective altruism. (We include a community strategy in the Appendix.) 5. We focus on reinforcement learning but also deep learning. Most of the machine learning research community studies deep learning (e.g., text processing, vision) and does not use, say, Bellman equations or PPO. While existentially catastrophic failures will likely require competent sequential decision making agents, the relevant problems and solutions can often be better studied outside of gridworlds and MuJoCo. There is much useful safety research to be done that does not need to be cast as a reinforcement learning problem. 6. To prevent alienating readers, we did not use phrases such as "AGI." AGI-exclusive research will not scale; for most academics and many industry researchers, it's a nonstarter. Likewise, to prevent needless dismissiveness, we kept x-risks implicit, only hinted at them, or used the phrase "permanent catastrophe." I would have personally enjoyed discussing at length how anomaly detection is an indispensable tool for reducing x-risks from Black Balls, engineered microorganisms, and deceptive ML systems. Here are how the problems relate to x-risk: Adversarial Robustness: This is needed for proxy gaming. ML systems encoding proxies must become more robust to optimizers, which is to say they must become more adversarially robust. We make this connection explicit at the bottom of page 9. Black Swans and Tail Risks: It's hard to be safe without high reliability. It's not obvious we'll achieve high reliability even by the time we have systems that are superhuman in important respects. Even though MNIST is solved for typical inputs, we still do not even have an MNIST classifier for atypical inputs that is reliable! Moreover, if optimizing agents become unreliable in the face of novel or extreme events, they could start heavily optimizing the wrong thing. Models accidentally going off the rails poses an x-risk if they are sufficiently powerful (this is related to "competent errors" and "treacherous turns"). If this problem is not solved, optimizers can use these weaknesses; this is a simpler problem on the way to adversarial robustness. Anomaly and Malicious Use Detection: This is an indispensable tool for detecting proxy gaming, Black Balls, engineered microorganisms that present bio x-risks, malicious users who may misalign a model, deceptive ML systems, and rogue ML systems. Representative Outputs: Making models honest is a way to avoid many treacherous turns. Hidden Model Functionality: This also helps avoid treacherous turns. Backdoors is a potentially useful related problem, as it is about detecting latent but potential sharp changes in behavior. Value Learning: Understanding utilities is difficult even for humans. Powerful optimizers will need to achieve a certain, as-of-yet unclear level of superhuman performance at learning our values. Translating Values to Action: Successfully prodding models to optimize our values is necessary for safe outcomes. Proxy Gaming: Obvious. Value Clarification: This is the philosophy bot section. We will need to decide what values to pursue. If we decide poorly, we may lock in or destroy what is of value. It also possible that there is an ongoing moral catastrophe, which we would not want to replicate across the cosmos. Unintended Consequences: This should help models not accidentally work against our values. ML for Cybersecurity: If you believe that AI governance is valuable and that global turbulence risks can increase risks of terrible outcomes, this section is also relevant. Even if some of the components of ML systems are safe, they can become unsafe when traditional software vulnerabilities enable others to control their behavior. Moreover, traditional software vulnerabilities may lead to the proliferation of powerful advanced models, and this may be worse than proliferating nuclear weapons. Informed Decision Making: We want to avoid decision making based on unreliable gut reactions during a time of crisis. This reduces risks of poor governance of advanced systems. Here are some other notes: 1. We use systems theory to motivate inner optimization as we expect motivation will be more convincing to others. 2. Rather than have a broad call for "interpretability," we focus on specific transparency-related problems that are more tractable and neglected. (See the Appendix for a table assessing importance, tractability, and neglectedness.) For example, we include sections on making models honest and detecting emergent functionality. 3. The "External Safety" section can also be thought of as technical research for reducing "Governance" risks. For readers mostly concerned about AI risks from global turbulence, there still is technical research that can be done. Here are some observations while writing the document: 1. Some approaches that were previously very popular are currently neglected, such as inverse reinforcement learning. This may be due to currently low tractability. 2. Five years ago, I started explicitly brainstorming the content for this document. I think it took the whole time for this document to take shape. Moreover, if this were written last fall, the document would be far more confused, since it took around a year after GPT-3 to become reoriented; writing these types of documents shortly after a paradigm shift may be too hasty. 3. When collecting feedback, it was not uncommon for "in-the-know" researchers to make opposite suggestions. Some people thought some of the problems in the Alignment section were unimportant, while others thought they were the most critical. We attempted to include most research directions.   [MLSN #1]: ICLR Safety Paper Roundup (Dan Hendrycks) (summarized by Rohin): This is the first issue of the ML Safety Newsletter, which is "a monthly safety newsletter which is designed to cover empirical safety research and be palatable to the broader machine learning research community".   Rohin's opinion: I'm very excited to see this newsletter: this is a category of papers that I want to know about and that are relevant to safety, but I don't have the time to read all of these papers given all the other alignment work I read, especially since I don't personally work in these areas and so often find it hard to summarize them or place them in the appropriate context. Dan on the other hand has written many such papers himself and generally knows the area, and so will likely do a much better job than I would. I recommend you subscribe, especially since I'm not going to send a link to each MLSN in this newsletter.       TECHNICAL AI ALIGNMENT TECHNICAL AGENDAS AND PRIORITIZATION Selection Theorems: A Program For Understanding Agents (John Wentworth) (summarized by Rohin): This post proposes a research area for understanding agents: selection theorems. A selection theorem is a theorem that tells us something about agents that will be selected for in a broad class of environments. Selection theorems are helpful because (1) they can provide additional assumptions that can help with learning human values, and (2) they can tell us likely properties of the agents we build by accident (think inner alignment concerns). As an example, coherence arguments demonstrate that when an environment presents an agent with “bets” or “lotteries”, where the agent cares only about the outcomes of the bets, then any “good” agent can be represented as maximizing expected utility. (What does it mean to be “good”? This can vary, but one example would be that the agent is not subject to Dutch books, i.e. situations in which it is guaranteed to lose resources.) This can then be turned into a selection argument by combining it with something that selects for “good” agents. For example, evolution will select for agents that don't lose resources for no gain, so humans are likely to be represented as maximizing expected utility. Unfortunately, many coherence arguments implicitly assume that the agent has no internal state, which is not true for humans, so this argument does not clearly work. As another example, our ML training procedures will likely also select for agents that don't waste resources, which could allow us to conclude that the resulting agents can be represented as maximizing expected utility, if the agents don't have internal state. Coherence arguments aren't the only kind of selection theorem. The good(er) regulator theorem (AN #138) provides a set of scenarios under which agents learn an internal “world model”. The Kelly criterion tells us about scenarios in which the best (most selected) agents will make bets as though they are maximizing expected log money. These and other examples are described in this followup post. The rest of this post elaborates on the various parts of a selection theorem, and provides advice on how to make original research contributions in the area of selection theorems. Another followup post describes some useful properties for which the author expects there are useful selections theorems to prove.   Rohin's opinion: People sometimes expect me to be against this sort of work, because I wrote Coherence arguments do not imply goal-directed behavior (AN #35). This is not true. My point in that post is that coherence arguments alone are not enough, you need to combine them with some other assumption (for example, that there exists some “resource” over which the agent has no terminal preferences). I do think it is plausible that this research agenda gives us a better picture of agency that tells us something about how AI systems will behave, or something about how to better infer human values. While I am personally more excited about studying particular development paths to AGI rather than more abstract agent models, I do think this research would be more useful than other types of alignment research I have seen proposed.       OTHER PROGRESS IN AI MISCELLANEOUS (AI) State of AI Report 2021 (Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth) (summarized by Rohin): As with past (AN #15) reports (AN #120), I'm not going to summarize the entire thing, and instead you get the high-level themes that the authors identified: 1. AI is stepping up in more concrete ways, including in mission critical infrastructure. 2. AI-first approaches have taken biology by storm (and we aren't just talking about AlphaFold). 3. Transformers have emerged as a general purpose architecture for machine learning in many domains, not just NLP. 4. Investors have taken notice, with record funding this year into AI startups, and two first ever IPOs for AI-first drug discovery companies, as well as blockbuster IPOs for data infrastructure and cybersecurity companies that help enterprises retool for the AI-first era. 5. The under-resourced AI-alignment efforts from key organisations who are advancing the overall field of AI, as well as concerns about datasets used to train AI models and bias in model evaluation benchmarks, raise important questions about how best to chart the progress of AI systems with rapidly advancing capabilities. 6. AI is now an actual arms race rather than a figurative one, with reports of recent use of autonomous weapons by various militaries. 7. Within the US-China rivalry, China's ascension in research quality and talent training is notable, with Chinese institutions now beating the most prominent Western ones. 8. There is an emergence and nationalisation of large language models.   Rohin's opinion: In last year's report (AN #120), I said that their 8 predictions seemed to be going out on a limb, and that even 67% accuracy woud be pretty impressive. This year, they scored their predictions as 5 “Yes”, 1 “Sort of”, and 2 “No”. That being said, they graded “The first 10 trillion parameter dense model” as “Yes”, I believe on the basis that Microsoft had run a couple of steps of training on a 32 trillion parameter dense model. I definitely interpreted the prediction as saying that a 10 trillion parameter model would be trained to completion, which I do not think happened publicly, so I'm inclined to give it a “No”. Still, this does seem like a decent track record for what seemed to me to be non-trivial predictions. This year's predictions seem similarly "out on a limb" as last year's. This year's report included one slide summaries of many papers I've summarized before. I only found one major issue -- the slide on TruthfulQA (AN #165) implies that larger language models are less honest in general, rather than being more likely to imitate human falsehoods. This is actually a pretty good track record, given the number of things they summarized where I would have noticed if there were major issues.       NEWS CHAI Internships 2022 (summarized by Rohin): CHAI internships are open once again! Typically, an intern will execute on an AI safety research project proposed by their mentor, resulting in a first-author publication at a workshop. The early deadline is November 23rd and the regular deadline is December 13th.

Stuff Mom Never Told You
Black Swan and the Horror of Perfectionism

Stuff Mom Never Told You

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2021 52:52


What's the cost of being perfect? Of losing yourself in the name of performance? Why do we applaud women's pain? The film Black Swan sets the stage for a conversation around the line between art and life, toxic mother-daughter relationships, mental health, symbolism, doppelgangers, ageism, orgasms, and the dangers of perfectionism.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Stories with Asmr
Black Swan and Lounder than Bombs Breakdown

Stories with Asmr

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2021 16:57


Hey Army! This week I dive back into their songs, I choose two very bittersweet and emotional songs, Black Swan and Louder than Bombs from Map of the Soul: 7. I go through many inspirations, meanings, lyrics, etc. Each of these songs has so much to give to Army with so much emotion. I hope you enjoy this episode! I had fun making it. I hope to bring lots of love and hope to y'all through this and BTS! Please let me know which song is your favorite! See you next time on BTS Breakdown! Quick Shout out to everyone who has listened to this podcast and continues to listen to it, I cannot thank you enough. ( Also feel free to look at my Website): wordpress.com/posts/btsbreakdown313256927.wordpress.com Thanks, Dangsin-eul Saranghaeyeo Em

Disaster Zone
A Conversation about Risk with Gordon Graham

Disaster Zone

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2021 51:00


In today's podcast I have a conversation with Gordon Graham a nationally and internationally known speaker on the topic of risk and risk management. I have heard Gordon speak several times and he is very knowledgeable and engaging. Our discussion covers a multitude of topics from Black Swan events, disaster planning and how to write procedures among many others. You can review Gordon's Reading List at the link provided. During the podcast he mentions two books in particular, Amanda Ripley's The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why and then also Michele Wucker's book, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore If you want to listen to another Disaster Zone Podcast on risk, here's a link to the one I did earlier this year with Michele Wucker, Personal and Organizational Risk Management. This episode is sponsored by The Blue Cell, a by design crisis and consequence management consulting firm with a primary focus on education and training for government at all levels, non governmental agencies and private sector entities engaged in incident and emergency management activities.

The Sustainable Futures Report
Supply Chain Blues

The Sustainable Futures Report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 18:22


Empty shelves, queues for petrol, rocketing gas prices. Will these short term crises take  the eyes of world leaders off the COP26 ball?

Money with Mak and G
EP1163: Was that a Black Swan?

Money with Mak and G

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2021 6:31


People believed there were only white swans. Then, explorers found a black one. It changed the way zoologists looked at animals and the way we all saw the world.  A black swan event is something we've never seen before. It's happened twice in October in the markets, and it was pretty scary!! Links and Resources: Website: Educounting.com  Facebook: fb.com/moneywithmakng Twitter: @moneywithmakng Instagram: @moneywithmakng YouTube: Educounting

Mi-Fit Podcast
The Art of Negotiation with Brandon Voss

Mi-Fit Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2021 55:25


This week on The MiFit Podcast my Dad and I have the pleasure in sitting down with Brandon Voss. Brandon is the Black Swan's president and thought leader and his mission is to teach clients how to identify the three main types of negotiators and develop a methodology for dealing with them in the most successful way possible.Brandon has been instrumental in adapting the FBI's hostage negotiation techniques to the business world as well as serving as a guest lecturer at places such as the USC and Georgetown school of business. Brandon also helped co-write the best selling book “Never Split the Difference.”Topics-Three types of negotiators and how to work with them-Defining “Deference” and how it's used in communication-Role playing an intense Gym situation-How to deal with someone who is snarky or testy without cause-Understanding labeling and mislabeling as a negotiation tactic-How to get the attention of someone at a bar or social event-How to get a hotel room upgrade-The power of silence in a negotiation-The difference in story telling when shifting from “I” to “You”Follow the Black Swan Group on IG @blackswangroupltd and head over to their website for tons of free resources at https://www.blackswanltd.com/homeIf you enjoyed this show be sure to leave a rating and review as that helps the show grow tremendously! Thank you all for the continued support. Enjoy the show!

Noon Business Hour on WBBM Newsradio
Facebook Fallout, Crypto Rally & Black Swan Event

Noon Business Hour on WBBM Newsradio

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 24:32


On today's Noon Business Hour, get the latest on the rough week for Facebook, a look at what's driving crypto currency markets higher and how top prepare for a so-called Black Swan event. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Winner Take All
Winner Take All #175 | YCombinator's Shift, Amazon Walk Out Tech, Goldman + GreenSky, China Update

Winner Take All

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 41:55


The episode starts off with some various stories out of China, including Pinduoduo founder Colin Huang losing billions as Chinese regulators crack down on domestic tech companies. Next, Alex looks at how the popular tech accelerator YCombinator has recently changed to incorporate larger batches of startups and a virtual based workflow. Also covered, Amazon bringing its cashierless "Just Walk Out" technology into Whole Foods and Goldman Sachs purchasing the buy now pay later company GreenSky. 00:00 - Subscribe and Fight Big Tech 00:19 - China Tech Crackdown Continues 04:34 - YCombinator's Shift 20:25 - Amazon's Black Swan? 25:59 - Why Did Goldman Sachs Buy This? Originally Aired: 09/21/21 #YCombinator #China #Podcast

The Goulet Pencast
Episode 17: Wet & Dry Ink, Plus Crustaceans & Barnacles

The Goulet Pencast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2021 114:28


Welcome to episode 17 of The Goulet Pencast! In this episode, Brian and Drew share some of your feedback and answer some of your questions (including a few discussions about ink flow and the price differences in gold & steel nib pens) while also sharing the "Pen of the Week", the Monteverde Regatta! SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube channel: http://bit.ly/GP-YTsubscribe LINKS TO PRODUCTS FEATURED: LAMY Ideos: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/lamy-ideos-fountain-pens?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto LAMY Dialog CC: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/lamy-dialog-cc-fountain-pens?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Esterbrook Book Holder: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/esterbrook-nib-book-holder?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Iroshizuku Ink: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/pilot-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Noodler's Black Swan in Australian Roses: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/noodlers-black-swan-australian-roses-3oz-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Diamine Marine: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/diamine-marine-30ml-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Noodler's Apache Sunset: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/noodlers-apache-sunset-3oz-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Private Reserve Infinity Ink: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/private-reserve?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Diplomat Aero: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/diplomat-aero-fountain-pens?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Sailor 1911 Vega: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/sailor-pro-gear-slim-fountain-pen-vega?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Namiki Emperor: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/namiki-emperor-fountain-pens?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Monteverde Regatta: https://www.gouletpens.com/collections/monteverde-regatta-sport-fountain-pens?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Monteverde Pumpkin Cake: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/monteverde-pumpkin-cake-30ml-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Noodler's Blue: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/noodlers-blue-3oz-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Noodler's Liberty's Elysium: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/noodlers-libertys-elysium-3oz-bottled-ink?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto Pilot Custom 823: https://www.gouletpens.com/products/pilot-custom-823-fountain-pen-amber?utmmedium=social&utmsource=youtube&utmcampaign=enu316bTGto TIMESTAMPS: 0:00:00 Intro 0:01:39 Listener Feedback 0:06:32 New Stuff 0:18:14 Q&A 0:18:25 What are the best inks for flex pens? 0:27:18 What to do with pens that dry out quickly? 0:38:12 Why would I buy a steel nib pen when I can get a gold nib for less? 0:47:55 How do you fill a Namiki Emperor? 0:54:05 What's the process for developing an exclusive pen? 1:07:16 Hypothetical (Not Pen of the Week- Oops!) 1:14:55 Pen of the week 1:34:17 What's Happening? 1:47:00 Compnay Updates 1:49:03 What's on Your Desk? ABOUT GOULET PENS: Brian & Rachel Goulet started The Goulet Pen Company in 2009 and you can see the evolution of our mom and pop into a full-blown company through this channel. We run a dedicated online store with fountain pens, ink, paper, and other fine writing accessories. Our goal with this channel is to provide fountain pen fans at all levels of experience with comprehensive product reviews, round ups, and how-to videos to answer all the fountain pen questions you may have. Shop at https://www.gouletpens.com.

Just talkin with Sam
Black Swan Dive Bomb

Just talkin with Sam

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2021 71:05


Dakota Starr comes back to the podcast to talk about his new band Black Swan Dive Bomb

Hillbilly Horror Stories
272: Victoria's Black Swan Inn

Hillbilly Horror Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2021 53:06


Jerry & Tracy discuss one of the most haunted locations of San Antonio, TX., a wedding venue by the name of Victoria's Black Swan inn

World of Horror
S3: Episode 7: Black & Blue: PERFECT BLUE & BLACK SWAN

World of Horror

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2021 93:24


Hi, there, WoHos!!This week we watched the 1997 Satoshi Kon psychological thriller, PERFECT BLUE and the 2010 Darren Aronofsky knock off, BLACK SWAN.Both films concern a young artist who has a psychological break as she is trying to navigate the professional and creative pressures she faces. We thought PERFECT BLUE had a clearer vision than BLACK SWAN, but at least one of us would watch BLACK SWAN  again.Hey. You know how podcasters often ask for ratings, subscriptions and reviews? We don't typically do that, but we are trying to grow WoHo nation, so to that end I have created a fill-in-the-blanks review form at the bottom. Choose the words and phrases that match your sentiments and cut and paste your completed form into the podcast platform of your choosing, won't you?In two weeks Mac and I are back with the 1958 Vincent Price classic, THE FLY and the 1986 Jeff Goldblum classic, THE FLY. At some point this month we hope to have the interview we alluded to in the show as well as a Quinnisode with "not too scary" Halloween movies featuring ARSENIC AND OLD LACE and E.T. (It was only a matter of time).We love you. DON'T go into the basement.A DIY Review FormWorld of Horror with Mom and Mac is a(n) excellent/fun/terrific podcast! I love/admire/envy the chemistry between the hosts. They are so funny/insightful/dynamic, I can only imagine how beautiful/gorgeous/attractive they are. I also appreciate/disagree with most of their takes on international and American films. I only wish they would do more films from India/Russia/Canada/____________(your choice). Since starting to listen to World of Horror, my life has gotten significantly better/much more delightful/just all-round better. Do yourself a favor and download this life-changing/life-affirming podcast today! It's just that easy, WoHo's.--Mom Support the show (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/xafupi)

The Twenty Minute VC: Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor

The Twenty Minute VC: Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2021 36:56


Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the most successful venture firms of the last decade with home runs in the likes of SpaceX, Palantir, Stripe, Anduril, Facebook, Airbnb, Nubank and many more. As for Keith, he led the first institutional investments in DoorDash, Affirm and has also led investments in Ramp, Trade Republic, Faire and Stripe. Prior to venture, Keith had the most stellar operating career, joining PayPal when their monthly burn-rate was $6 million; Keith joined LinkedIn, Slide and Square when they had no revenue. Fun fact, five companies Keith helped build are now publicly traded with market caps >$1 Billion. Three others have been acquired for greater than $1 Billion or are publicly traded IPOs. If that was not enough, Keith is also the Co-Founder and CEO @ OpenStore, acquiring small DTC businesses. In Today's Episode with Keith Rabois You Will Learn: 1.) How Keith first came up with the idea for Opendoor? How a conversation with Peter Thiel led to the founding of the first iteration of the company? Why did it take Keith close to a decade to pursue the idea fully, post having the idea in 2003? 2.) The Market: What made Keith so excited to pursue Opendoor from a top-down market analysis perspective? What does Keith look for in markets he likes to invest in? How did Keith expect the market to change and evolve? What did the market do differently to how Keith thought it would behave? 3.) The Business Model: With debt being the oxygen for Opendoor, how many homes did they need to acquire before they could prove they could price homes accurately? What were Keith's lessons from the first homes they bought? What did not go to plan? Why does Keith disagree, if macro hits real estate, Opendoor's model is challenged? Why does Keith believe it is stronger then? 4.) The Team: What does Keith look for in the founding teams he backs? How does Keith detect diamonds in the rough? How can teams systematically de-risk an opportunity with their experience? With the benefit of hindsight, what would Keith have done differently with the team? 5.) The Funding: Was fundraising for Opendoor always easy? How did the seed round go down? How does Keith feel today about pre-emptive rounds where little company development has taken place? Why did Opendoor decide to SPAC? Why not a direct list? Was this the right choice? What makes for the best SPAC partner?

Slate Star Codex Podcast
Book Review: The Scout Mindset

Slate Star Codex Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2021 37:54


https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-scout-mindset I. You tried Carol Dweck's Growth Mindset, but the replication crisis crushed your faith. You tried Mike Cernovich's Gorilla Mindset, but your neighbors all took out restraining orders against you. And yet, without a mindset, what separates you from the beasts? Just in time, Julia Galef brings us The Scout Mindset (subtitle: “Why Some People See Things Clearly And Others Don't). Galef admits she's a little behind the curve on this one. Books on rationality and overcoming cognitive biases were big ten years ago (Thinking Fast And Slow, Predictably Irrational, The Black Swan, etc). Nowadays “smiling TED-talk-circuit celebrity wants to help you improve your thinking!” is more likely to elicit groans than breathless anticipation. And that isn't the least accurate description of Julia (you can watch her TED talk here). But Galef earned her celebrity status honestly, through long years of hard labor in the rationality mines. Back in ~2007, a bunch of people interested in biases and decision-making joined the “rationalist community” centered around the group blogs Overcoming Bias and Less Wrong. Around 2012, they mostly left to do different stuff. Some of them went into AI to try to save the world. Others went into effective altruism to try to revolutionize charity. Some, like me, got distracted and wrote a few thousand blog posts on whatever shiny things happened to catch their eyes. But a few stuck around and tried to complete the original project. They founded a group called the Center For Applied Rationality (aka “CFAR”, yes, it's a pun) to try to figure out how to actually make people more rational in the real world.

Choiceology with Katy Milkman
Expect the Unexpected With Guests Abigail Sussman, Howie Jeon, and Greg Golden

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2021 32:56


Perhaps this scenario seems familiar. Let's say you generally do a good job of sticking to your monthly budget, but a rare opportunity arises—maybe a favorite musical artist is in town, or you've been invited to a friend's 25th anniversary event—and you blow past your regular spending limit. It's all right—you'll just have to tighten your belt a bit next month. But then your phone stops working, and you have to buy a new model. And now your car needs an expensive repair. Again, these are not ordinary expenses, so you chalk it up to life and go back to your usual budget. And then the invitation to a destination wedding arrives …In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore a common error around the way individuals and organizations categorize seemingly exceptional expenses.Food trucks have come a long way since their humble beginnings as purveyors of meat pies and coffee for day laborers. Today, there's a stunning variety of culinary options: from simple french fries to French haute cuisine, from ice cream to iced lattes, from Vietnamese pho to Mongolian pot stickers. And while these businesses may seem relatively straightforward to run, food trucks and small restaurants run into their fair share of unexpected costs.You hear from two food truck entrepreneurs. Greg Golden runs the delightful Mustache Pretzels, which he built from the ground up in Phoenix, Arizona. Greg was confident in his idea and his product but quickly ran into a series of financially painful setbacks on his way to a thriving business.Howie Jeon started his food truck business, Yumpling, with two partners and found success providing Taiwanese-inspired dumplings and other fusion fare to the lunch crowd in Manhattan. But when it came time to expand into a permanent brick-and-mortar restaurant, Howie and his partners faced a litany of challenges, not least of which was a global pandemic.Abigail Sussman joins Katy to discuss the ways in which we tend to dismiss or miscategorize expenses that fall outside of our regular budgets. These categorization errors can have a profound impact on businesses large and small—and also on personal budgets. You'll hear about strategies to help deal with this tendency and to better prepare for expenses that seem exceptional but are often inevitable. Abigail Sussman is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. You can read her research paper with Adam Alter titled The Exception Is the Rule: Underestimating and Overspending on Exceptional Expenses for more information on the phenomenon.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(0921-1A9D)

The Commercial Break
EP106: ScamcolFM

The Commercial Break

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 24, 2021 62:24


Bryan asks Krissy a very important question about the current state of affairs in the world: Why don't people wave any more when you let them cut in traffic?! Where is the decency!? Then the friends recall the time Bryan was asked to start an online streaming radio / TV station named SimcolFM by a man named Simon Guobadia. Simon has made news recently marrying then divorcing and then proposing to a different cast member of Real Housewives of Atlanta, Porsha Williams. Bryan shares his experience dealing with this Nigerian Oil Man and shady ways....buckle up for the TRUE story of ScamcolFM!LINKS:Want a TCB limited edition collectible sticker? Each series sticker is limited and first come, first serve. Click HERE to find out how!Or send a text or voicemail to 661-Best-2-Yo (1.661.237.8296)Watch this episode on YoutubeTCBTV-minusSponsorStreamlight Lending By SunTrust Bank (Use Code TCB for additional interest savings)DBSAlliance For Mental Health HelpMagic Spoon (Use Code TCB)FUM (Use Code TCB) Smokeless Pipe for Smoking SesationMEMPHO Music Fest (Oct 1st-3rd 2021)Castbox is the TCB partner for the Mempho Fest showsSubscribe to The Commercial Break Podcast Youtube ChannelNew Episodes on Tuesdays and now Fridays everywhere!Text or leave us a message: 1-(661)-BEST-2-YO  |  (1-661-237-8296)

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Love Your Work
264. Creative Waste

Love Your Work

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2021 9:10


When Vincent van Gogh began his career as an artist, he had already failed at everything else. He even got fired from his own family's business in the process. Not seeing any alternative, he completely immersed himself in art. In one two-week period, he created 120 drawings. But exactly none of those drawings are famous today. [This is Love Your Work, and I'm David Kadavy] What feels like waste is not waste Last week, I talked about the Iceberg Principle – the idea that any masterpiece you see is just the tip of the iceberg. There's far more knowledge and experience beneath the surface, giving that masterpiece confidence and grace. But as you're adding layer after layer to your iceberg, it doesn't feel like that's what you're doing. It feels like you're wasting your energy. But you're not. After Van Gogh's frenzied first couple weeks seriously pursuing art, he settled in to a more conservative pace. Instead of 120 drawings in two weeks, he was instead shooting to make just twenty a week. He figured that's how many he'd have to make to end up with one good piece each week. “Waste” takes many forms What feels like “waste” can take many forms: Failed projects: You made something, and nobody likes it. Off on timing: Nobody like it yet, but some day someone will. Unfinished projects: You started, got a little ways, and maybe Shiny Object Syndrome took over. For whatever reason, you didn't finish. Research and Preparation: You don't always know what you're trying to learn, but all sorts of tinkering may seem like a waste. Creative waste is part of the creative game Sometimes what feels like “waste,” makes it directly into a current or future project, thus making it clearly not waste. But even the stuff that never becomes a part of your body of work is part of the creative game. I talked in episode 256 about the Barbell Strategy. To succeed in creative work, put most of your efforts toward “sure bets” that protect your downside and keep you in the game. With the rest of your time and energy, play “wildcards,” that have a chance of big upside. Creative work happens in Extremistan, not Mediocristan. Success won't be a steady climb up-and-to-the-right. Instead, it will look more like a poorly-shaved porcupine. Long periods of time where it doesn't seem like much is happening, punctuated by big spikes that level up your career one at a time. Yes, you're showing up every day and putting in the work, but all that is a series of small bets. You hope for one or two or a few to turn into positive Black Swans. Projects that take off, and take on a life of their own. In the course of playing this strategy, you can't tell what will be wasted, and what will not. You have to trust that “waste” is part of the process. Projects will fail, projects will go unfinished, and iterations will burn in the fire. That doesn't make you a procrastinator or a dilettante – that makes you a creator. Waste in Van Gogh's first masterpiece Vincent van Gogh's first masterpiece was full of waste. He did not just a sketch, but a small study, a medium study, and a print he could give out to test his idea. This was all before working on the final canvas. And that had many iterations, and four coats of varnish. He left it in his friend's studio to prevent himself from “spoiling it.” Then he still came back and worked on it some more. All that waste was on top of the years of work he did leading up to the project. The painting was about peasants, and he wandered around living like a peasant himself, begging people to model for him. And, there was the twenty drawings a week he had done. And those 120 drawings he did in a two-week period? We don't even know what they look like, because he destroyed them. Once this first masterpiece, The Potato Eaters, was done, it must have felt like a waste to Vincent. Everyone hated it. He got in a fight with his brother about it, and he completely cut off a friend who attacked it, viciously. Vincent van Gogh's first masterpiece was the result of a lot of waste. Each of those drawings was a failed project, surely many were left unfinished. He did a massive amount of research and preparation, and he was certainly off on timing. The Potato Eaters is regarded as a masterpiece today. Creative waste adds to the iceberg You already heard last week about how any masterpiece is just the tip of the iceberg. There's far more below the surface. So what new do you learn from creative waste? Sometimes, you can't see the tip of the iceberg. Sometimes it all just feels like waste. Your projects are failing, and your preparation and planning isn't getting you anywhere, causing you to leave projects unfinished. Just remember that other creators have embraced creative waste. I told you last week about how Margaret Mitchell re-wrote nearly every chapter of Gone With the Wind at least twenty times, Jerry Seinfeld says joke-writing is “ninety-five percent re-write,” Meredith Monk's charts and graphs go to waste and don't end up in the final performance, and Stephen King reminds you to “kill your darlings.” Those are all fine when you're deep in a project and you can see where it's going, but what do you do when entire projects get scrapped? Great creators embrace waste That's when you need to remind yourself of the approach Picasso took to his paintings. He did one after another. He saw them as like “pages in [his] journal.” He understood that not all his works would be successful. Even once he had a finished piece, he didn't know its true fate. “The future will chose the pages it prefers,” he said. “It's not up to me to make the choice.” Embrace creative waste. No waste, no wins. Image: Tale of Hoffmann by Paul Klee About Your Host, David Kadavy David Kadavy is author of Mind Management, Not Time Management, The Heart to Start and Design for Hackers. Through the Love Your Work podcast, his Love Mondays newsletter, and self-publishing coaching David helps you make it as a creative. Follow David on: Twitter Instagram Facebook YouTube Subscribe to Love Your Work Apple Podcasts Overcast Spotify Stitcher YouTube RSS Email Support the show on Patreon Put your money where your mind is. Patreon lets you support independent creators like me. Support now on Patreon »     Show notes: http://kadavy.net/blog/posts/creative-waste/

Real Estate Uncensored - Real Estate Sales & Marketing Training Podcast
Black Swan Events & The Power of Preparedness: How Agents Can Be a Force for Good in Crisis w/Coni Meyers

Real Estate Uncensored - Real Estate Sales & Marketing Training Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2021 58:12


If the 2020 run on toilet paper wasn't evidence enough, the vast majority of people are the furthest thing from prepared for a crisis. How can we change that?   It'll be a long time before life returns to ‘normal', so in the meantime, what can we do to equip ourselves both mentally and physically for anything life throws our way? More importantly, how can we stay optimistic while doing it?   In this episode, 5-time bestselling author, Coni Meyers shares how to prepare for the worst, while seeing every single moment as a gift.    Three Things You'll Learn in This Episode    The routine guaranteed to help us stay positive through anything How can we strengthen our inner game, so no matter what happens, we're in the right headspace to tackle our obstacles as they come?    How to pinpoint our ‘Crystalline Moments' Sometimes, even the hardest experience is a gift from the universe. How can we get into the habit of looking for the good in every crisis?    How to prepare for disasters in advance What should we be doing to ensure we have all our essentials in place, should the need to evacuate arise?   Guest Bio   Coni Meyers is a crisis management specialist. A 5x bestselling author, her most recent book, When the Unthinkable Happens…Be Prepared, Be Ready! Aims to equip readers with the necessary skills to handle anything life throws their way. Coni is also a leadership clarity strategist, and has over 4 decades of experience in supporting both individuals and businesses.   To find out more, go to:https://ckmsolutionsgroup.com/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/2774511749269117   https://www.amazon.com/Coni-K-Meyers/e/B00S1U28G0?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1&qid=1630678076&sr=1-1

48 Hours
The Black Swan Murder?

48 Hours

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2021 42:54


A former ballerina shoots her husband. Did she kill to save herself or was it out of spite? "48 Hours" contributor Jim Axelrod reports.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Danger Close with Jack Carr
Andy McNab: Behind Enemy Lines

Danger Close with Jack Carr

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2021 133:37


Today's guest on Danger Close is Andy McNab. Andy is a former member of the British SAS who led Bravo Two Zero during the first Gulf War.   Over his time in the military, he conducted counter-terrorist and anti-drug missions in Central and South America and throughout the Middle East and worked undercover in Northern Ireland. He was captured in Iraq on a mission during the first Gulf War in 1991, an experience he recounts in his first book, Bravo Two Zero. Andy was awarded the Distinguished Conduct Medal (DCM) and Military Medal (MM). At the time he left SAS in 1993, he was the British Army's most highly decorated serving soldier. In his post-military life, he has instructed special operations forces in survival, hostage rescue and counter terrorism. He was also the technical advisor on the classic action film Heat.  He is the author of the Nick Stone and Tom Buckingham thriller series, the co-author of the Boy Soldier series, and the author of three books about his own military experience: Bravo Two Zero, Seven Troop, and Immediate Action. Andy's novel Red Notice, was recently adapted into a major motion picture, and is currently available on Netflix as SAS: Rise of the Black Swan. You can follow him on Twiter @the_real_mcnab. Presented by SIG Sauer. Featured Gear:  True Velocity Ammunition