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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Better weather forecasting: Agricultural and non-agricultural benefits in low- and lower-middle-income countries, published by Rethink Priorities on April 28, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Editorial note This report is a “shallow” investigation, as described here, and was commissioned by Open Philanthropy and produced by Rethink Priorities. Open Philanthropy does not necessarily endorse our conclusions. The primary focus of the report was to investigate whether improving weather forecasting could have benefits for agriculture in low- and lower-middle income countries, and evaluate how cost-effective this might be. Note that this means we did not evaluate improvements in weather forecasting against other potential interventions to achieve the same aims, such as the development of climate-resilient crops. We reviewed the academic and gray literature, and also spoke to seven experts. In our report, we provide a brief description of weather forecasting and the global industry, before evaluating which farmers might most benefit from improved forecasts. We then explore how predictions are currently made in countries of interest, and how accurate they are. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of one intervention that was often mentioned by experts, and highlight other potential opportunities for grantmaking and further research. We don't intend this report to be Rethink Priorities' final word on this topic and we have tried to flag major sources of uncertainty in the report. We are open to revising our views as more information is uncovered. Key takeaways Weather forecasting consists of three stages. Data assimilation: to understand the current state of the atmosphere, based on observations from satellites and surface-based stations. All forecasts beyond 4-5 days require global observations. Forecasting: to model how the atmosphere will change over time. Limits to supercomputing power necessitates tradeoffs, e.g., between forecast length and resolution. Communication: packaging relevant information and sharing this with potential users. The global annual spending on weather forecasting is over $50 billion. Around 260-305 million smallholder farms in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia stand to benefit the most. A wide range of farming decisions benefit from weather forecasts, from strategic seasonal or annual decisions like crop choice, to day-to-day decisions like irrigation timing. There is some evidence that farmers can benefit from forecasts in terms of increased yields and income. For smallholder farmers, cereals are likely the most important crop group, constituting 90% of their agricultural output. Medium-range and seasonal forecasts of rainfall and temperature are most important to these farmers. In the lower-middle-income countries and low-income countries1 of interest, weather forecasting quality remains poor. Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a methodology that underlies much of weather forecasting. Seasonal forecasts of temperature seem more accurate than those for precipitation. At shorter timescales, forecasts in the tropics may be useful with a lead time of up to two weeks, and are generally less accurate than forecasts for the mid-latitudes. Public sector forecasting in these LMICs is generally informed by global NWPs, meaning that accuracy and resolution remain low. LMICs do not improve on global NWPs, as they lack resources and access to raw data. We have not found any evidence to suggest that private sector forecasts are better, though Ignitia's approach targets one of the main issues with global NWPs. A small sample of public and private organizations we reviewed spends about $300 million each year on improving forecasting. It's likely that advisories are needed, especially for seasonal forecasts. Improving weather forecast...
Ignitia Office was a thriving co-working company, fundraising for its second location in September 2019 when WeWork imploded and investors disappeared. 6 months later, COVID-19 erased 80% of the company’s revenue. In July 2020, Ignitia closed its doors forever. Co-founder and CEO Josh Bobrowsky discusses with Stephen and Phineas how he navigated the many tough decisions he had to make and what he’s working on next.
Lizzie Merrill is the Chief, Operating Officer at Ignitia in Ghana. Lizzie has extensive experience in working with both aid organizations as well as social enterprises. In this episode, she explains how her work helps small scale farmers improve their farming capacities, what it’s like to work with a social enterprise, and how to develop a successful innovation project. - So when I learned about social entrepreneurship, which was both the sort of direct impact working with customers and beneficiaries and a sort of sustainable business model, this I think, this is the nexus that I want to work in, says Lizzie Merrill.
Liisa Smits var forskare på University of Washington och såg framför sig en forskarkarriär inom atmosfärisk fysik när hon upptäckte att väderprognoserna i många afrikanska länder hade fel oftare än rätt. Idag säljer hennes företag Ignitia väderprognoser till 1 miljon bönder. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
At the age of 25 years Liisa Smits left her position as a researcher in the US to start her venture in Africa. Liisa understood that the world needed a more accurate weather forecast for the tropical regions, which could enable for farmers to more likely predict the weather and plan their farming. Today her service is used by over 650,000 farmers and the venture Ignitia enables the most poor people in the world to create a sustainable living for themselves. Listen to her inspirational journey to make a change in the world. She is such an inspiration and a living proof that anything is possible if you put your mind and heart to it. Instagram: @letstalksforachange
Special Episode Highlighting The Ignitia Open Pitch Competition. On Wednesday June 20th, 2018 Ignitia Office held their first annual pitch competition that featured the 7 finalist competing for $20,000 grand prize consisting of $10,000 in coworking space and $10,000 in cash. Below are the following contestants that we spoke with prior to the big pitch. Padspin, Inc. - Finding an apartment can be a real nightmare. Padspin helps cut down on the pain of the apartment hunt by cutting back broker fees and helps connect residential tenants and landlords directly and efficiently. Founded By Jeff Segal. https://padspin.com/ Geopipe, Inc. - Creates Immersive Virtual copies of real world built by algorithms, instantly downloadable for simulations, games architecture and beyond. Geopipe was Founded by 2 computer scientists Christopher Mitchell- Founder-CEO (PHD NYU) and Thomas Dickerson Founder-CSO (PHD candidate Brown). https://geopi.pe/ Lilu, Inc. is building the next generation of mom-tech products to help mothers pump, track and manage their breast milk supply. Founded By Adriana C Vázquez Ortiz (MIT Graduate) Sujay Suresh Kumar ( UPenn Graduate). http://www.wearlilu.com/ The Lieu– Beauty Bars for workspaces. From the founder Rebecca Lima: “We partner with office properties, workspaces, corporations and events to create self-care beauty bars for women.” https://www.thelieu.com/ Biotrak Therapeudics- Behavioral Therapy to assist with those who suffer from migraine headaches led by Adam Kirell and an incredible team of experts. https://www.haloheadache.com/ Podible. Founded by Sheldon Smickley, Podible uses machine learning to solve both discovery and monetization for podcast authors and listeners. https://podible.co/ Futureproof Retail - Creates high end shopping experiences for both customers and consumers through point of sale technology. Founded by Di Di Chan & William Hogben Futureproof is out to change the way we shop in a big way. https://www.futureproofretail.com/ Hosted by: IGNITIA OFFICE 1002 Dean St, Brooklyn, NY 11238 Phone: 929-269-6777 www.ignitiaoffice.com
Interview w/ Josh Bobrowsky the CEO & CoFounder of Ignitia Office. Josh also founded Icons Consulting, owner and founder of Integrated Fitness and owned J.B. Landscaping. We discuss Josh's mentors in Ari Lightman, Digital Media & Marketing Professor at Carnegie Mellon, lessons learned along his journey, growth tips and the community and culture he is building at Ignitia Office in Brooklyn. Ignitia Office is a premium Coworking space that was recently ranked Top NYC Startups of 2018 and Top 7 Coworking spaces in NYC by Inc. Magazine. www.ignitiaoffice.com Josh on Social Media: Twitter: @joshbobrowsky Ense: @joshbobrowsky LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-bobrowsky-45834212/ Recommended Books: Shoe Dog - Phil Knight The Alchemist - Paulo Coelho The Hard Thing about Hard things - Ben Horowitz Download Ense to ask Josh any follow up questions: https://ense.nyc/install
Coñecemos a spn-off Ancora da Universidade de Vigo e programa Ignicia da Axencia Galega de Innovación da Xunta de Galicia.
Coñecemos a spn-off Ancora da Universidade de Vigo e programa Ignicia da Axencia Galega de Innovación da Xunta de Galicia.
Weather forecasting is difficult. In tropical climates even more so. Enter Ignitia: a forecasting service developed specifically for tropical climates, which can have a big impact on local farming - in some cases it can double yields. Better forecasting creates greater food security and can lead to big financial improvement for many small-scale farmers in tropical regions. All because of a smarter weather model.
Weather forecasting is difficult. In tropical climates even more so. Enter Ignitia: a forecasting service developed specifically for tropical climates, which can have a big impact on local farming - in some cases it can double yields. Better forecasting creates greater food security and can lead to big financial improvement for many small-scale farmers in tropical regions. All because of a smarter weather model.
Have you ever stopped to think about how many things in your life depend on the weather? Everything from your mood to your travel plans to whether or not you'll get to wear that awesome brand new pair of blue suede shoes you've been dying to show off. The weather is also, of course, important for farmers. Being able to predict when it will rain (or not) could mean the difference between raising a successful crop or ending up with a field of dead plants. For farmers outside of the tropics, weather prediction has gotten fairly accurate over time (and, no, this podcast is not about global climate change). However, for farmers in the tropics, because of unique micro climates and rapidly shifting patterns, predicting the weather has been troublesome, at best. At worst, it just hasn't been available. Enter my guest for the 135th Terms of Reference Podcast. Sable Bender is the Digital Marketing and Social Media Strategist for Ignitia - the world's first weather forecasting service specifically designed for the tropics. T