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Forecasting is supposed to be the corporate crystal ball. In reality, it's the nervous system of the organization, and it's almost always wrong.In this episode of Corporate Finance Explained, we break down why even the most sophisticated companies, with PhDs, AI, and expensive ERP systems, still miss their forecasts and how those misses can cascade into hiring mistakes, inventory blowups, margin compression, and credibility loss with investors. The problem isn't the spreadsheet. It's the humans behind it: incentives, internal politics, and cognitive bias.We unpack the two forces that quietly sabotage forecasts inside most organizations: sandbagging (teams deflating targets to protect bonuses) and the optimism trap (leaders inflating projections to win budget and headcount). Then we go deeper into the psychology, including anchoring and overconfidence, and why “torturing the model until it hits the number” is a fast track to bad decisions.You'll also hear a real-world contrast between Target and Walmart in the post-pandemic cycle, and how forecasting failures often stem from using lagging indicators, misreading demand normalization, and locking into static annual plans. From there, we explore what top finance teams do differently: rolling forecasts, driver-based forecasting, and tighter model governance that reduces Excel risk and keeps base case vs stretch case separate.Finally, we cover the most overlooked forecasting skill: communicating uncertainty. Leaders don't need false precision. They need a credible range, clear drivers, and a story that explains what changed, why it changed, and what to do next.If you work in FP&A, corporate finance, budgeting, planning, or financial modeling, this is your deep dive into how forecasting actually works in the real world and how the best teams stay agile when the future refuses to cooperate.
Louise Byg Kongsholm explains in this episode that companies must navigate "trend stuffification" by distinguishing between short-term noise and long-term strategic patterns that address fundamental human needs. She advocates for life stage segmentation over traditional demographics and warns that AI should be treated as a tool rather than a business strategy to protect the essential human "creative spark". Louise Byg Kongsholm is CEO of pej gruppen – scandinavian trend institute, a company with more than 50 years of experience in decoding trends and making them actionable for Scandinavian companies.She works as a trend researcher, author, speaker and advisor across Scandinavia. She is also editor-in-chief of three professional magazines and has written several books on topics such as trend sociology, the future of retail, life stage segmentation and creativity. She is known for translating complex societal and cultural shifts into clear strategic insight.Her work centres on zeitgeist analysis, megatrends and consumer behaviour, with a strong focus on how uncertainty, values and cultural change shape markets and everyday decision-making. Rather than treating trends as isolated phenomena, she analyses patterns, signals and underlying drivers. From this perspective, colour is not a discipline in itself, but a visible expression of deeper cultural moods and collective states of mind.Support the showThank you for listening! Follow us through our website or social media!https://www.thecolorauthority.com/podcasthttps://www.instagram.com/the_color_authority_/https://www.linkedin.com/company/78120219/admin/
In this episode of GeoTrek, Hurricane Hal sits down with Joe Martucci, New Jersey's only Certified Broadcast and Digital Meteorologist and an FAA-certified drone pilot. They explore how he communicates critical weather information across a state known for dramatic seasonal swings — from coastal storms to inland snow — and a population as diverse as its climate. It's a focused conversation on forecasting, public trust, and delivering clear warnings in a place where both the weather and the people keep you on your toes. Joe's work has been featured in The New Yorker, Deadliest Catch, and Rutgers publications, and as the first Certified Digital Meteorologist (2023), he now speaks nationwide on the future of meteorology in media.Watch on Youtube or listen anywhere you get your podcasts. Follow Joe:Website — https://cupajoe.live/about/X — https://x.com/JoeMartWx/Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/JoeMartWx/Youtube — https://www.youtube.com/@joemartwxInstagram — https://www.instagram.com/joemartwxTikTok — https://www.tiktok.com/@joemartwx
Joseph Fournier presents “part two” on how Pacific Walker circulation controls Earth's largest greenhouse effect: cloud longwave radiative forcing. He explains cloud radiative forcing terminology, cites literature claiming cloud greenhouse warming dwarfs CO2 forcing, and shows satellite-era links between trade winds, cloud shifts during ENSO, outgoing longwave radiation, and global/tropical temperature anomalies. He contrasts absorbed solar radiation, OLR, and Earth energy imbalance, arguing global averages can be dominated by regional Pacific dynamics. He reviews multidecadal “dimming/brightening” sunshine trends in Europe, Japan and the U.S., discusses aerosols vs natural drivers, and briefly addresses future uncertainty, AMO/IPO impacts, and solar/cosmic-ray hypotheses. 00:00 Welcome Back: Joseph Fournier & Why This Is “Part Two”02:15 Cloud Basics 101: Shortwave vs Longwave, Net Cloud Radiative Forcing05:51 Albedo Matters: How Small Cloud Changes Rival CO₂ Forcing08:40 Evidence in the Literature: Trendberth and Early Satellite Cloud Forcing Maps14:28 Clouds vs CO₂ Since 2000: Step-Change in Cloudiness and OLR16:56 Geography Over Global Averages: The Western Pacific Warm Pool Hotspot20:12 Warm Pool Size, SST, and Real-World Impacts (Winters, ENSO Timescales)22:48 Walker Circulation Explained: Where Deep Convection Sits in La Niña vs El Niño25:34 Warm Pool “Thermal Capacitor”: Thermocline Slosh, Water Volume, and Cloud Shift30:32 Sea Level Pile-Up and the Gravity-Driven Discharge During El Niño32:36 Radiation Signatures of ENSO: DLW/OLR Links to Niño Indices36:13 Cloud Forcing Ratios & Decadal Patterns: What El Niño Does to Warm Pool Clouds40:34 Global Signals: OLR vs Global Air Temperature and the ENSO Lead–Lag45:14 Trade Winds as the Control Knob: Linking Pacific Easterlies to Global OLR47:44 Tropical temps, OLR & trade winds: Walker circulation link48:42 Clouds as the “other knob”: absorbed shortwave (ASR) vs temperature50:29 2023 El Niño cloud changes: low-cloud cover & shifting albedo53:49 ASR vs OLR since 2000: the hiatus ends and the energy budget shifts55:44 Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) vs GAT: why the correlation breaks57:58 Seasonal cycle first: EEI swings, hemispheres, clouds & land–ocean contrast01:00:10 Wrap-up: two greenhouse effects & a call for academics to test it01:02:54 Sunshine hours & AMO: UK/Europe brightening over the 20th century01:07:26 Aerosols vs clouds: modern satellite trends and the “brightening” debate01:11:53 Global dimming/brightening goes global: Japan/China records & Pacific teleconnections01:12:56 Natural vs human drivers: when aerosols don't explain surface radiation01:18:13 Forecasting the next decade: sun, AMO/IPO, cooling claims & big uncertainties01:26:17 Closing remarks: slides, Substack, and the climate–energy–geopolitics linkMore information about Joseph Fournier: https://co2coalition.org/teammember/joseph-fournier/His 2024 presentation: https://youtu.be/P2hVW0R67CYJoseph's Substack: https://josephfournier.substack.com/X: https://x.com/JosephF55175005=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
Jenna and Sheinelle tackle listeners' tricky social situations in a brand-new edition of “Social Dilemmas.” Futurist and tech entrepreneur Sinead Bovell breaks down A.I. trends to watch. Plus, dating expert Devyn Simone settles disputes in another round of “Relationship Court.” And, entrepreneur and wellness influencer Hannah Bronfman joins to discuss her new docu-series “The CEO Club,” following a group of trailblazing female CEOs. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2026. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12992Date of first use: February, 2026
In this episode of The Mobilization Mindset, Drew Aldridge talks with Natalia Zacharin of Zacharin Consulting about the financial foundation contractors need to scale.They break down the difference between bookkeeping, controllers, and CFO strategy, why profit does not equal cash, and the common financial blind spots that hold growing construction companies back.Topics include:• Where cash actually goes in a growing contractor• When to hire a bookkeeper, controller, or CFO• Labor profitability and pricing issues• Forecasting and financial visibility for growth• Preparing financials for financing or a future saleIf you want better control of cash, margins, and growth decisions, this episode explains how strong financial leadership creates options.Free resources as mentioned: https://zacharinconsulting.com/mobilization/Natalia's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/growyourbottomline/Zacharin Consulting Website: https://zacharinconsulting.com/Learn more: https://mobilizationfunding.com/Subscribe to the Mobilization Minute newsletter: https://mobilizationfunding.com/newsletter-subscriptions/
Listen to United Educators (UE) risk management consultants Joanne Dunlap, Hoda Hussein, Beth Kidwell, and Natalie Robinson-Babaniyi share their perspectives on risks to watch in 2026.
Contractor Cash Flow Fix — The 4 Numbers Every Subcontractor Must Track with Dustin Young Find Rocky Lalvani @ www.ProfitComesFirst.com or email him at rocky@profitcomesfirst.com Pay-When-Paid Cash Flow: How Subcontractors Survive Long Payment Terms Subcontractors and GCs don't usually go broke because they don't have work—they go broke because cash timing, contract terms, and decision-making lag quietly squeeze them until payroll becomes a crisis. In this episode, Rocky Lalvani sits down with Dustin Young, a fractional CFO who works specifically with construction companies doing roughly $3M–$30M in annual revenue. Dustin shares the patterns he sees across contractors: "pay-when-paid" bottlenecks, contracts signed without understanding payment terms, books that are months behind, and owners stuck fighting fires instead of building systems. In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why subcontractors often get stuck with "pay when paid" terms—and how to reduce the damage with cash forecasting and up-front negotiation before you sign. The question Rocky asks that exposes a common blind spot: most contractors don't know payment terms before signing, and that can mean funding payroll for 90 days without cash coming in. The 4 numbers Dustin wants contractors tracking consistently (weekly/monthly): cash, sales, gross profit, net profit—so you can make decisions based on reality, not vibes. Rocky's gross profit mindset shift: top-line revenue can fool you, but gross profit tells you what size business you can actually run. Why Dustin's "field + finance" background matters: construction companies often have a disconnect where field operations and accounting don't speak the same language, which leads to waste, margin surprises, and chaos. The failure pattern Dustin sees: businesses die when they can't make decisions fast enough—especially when job margins are unknown and the books are months behind (he mentions a company six months behind that still "thinks" they did ~$40M). Why the hardest bottlenecks aren't spreadsheets—they're people problems (trust breaks, safety incidents, long-time employees) and why owners delay decisions even when they know what has to happen. The real cost of "tax advice" spending and shiny purchases (like the $120,000 truck example), plus how to pressure-test big spends (including marketing retainers) using a cash forecast before you commit. The Big Takeaway: If you don't know your contract terms, don't measure job-level profitability, and don't keep your books current, you're not running a construction business—you're financing projects for other people and hoping you survive the wait. Forecasting and a few core numbers create the clarity to negotiate better, avoid cash traps, and make faster decisions before problems become payroll emergencies. Bio: helps construction company owners get their lives back. Most contractors he meets are doing good with sales but are trapped—working 70-hour weeks, constantly putting out fires, missing their kids' games, and wondering why they built a business that owns them instead of the other way around. He knows because he's been there. He grew up around construction and spent the last decade building and scaling construction companies—some successful, some that taught expensive lessons. He's been in the field getting projects through the finish line and in the back office building financial systems to make the whole thing work. What he learned is this: revenue growth without the right systems just means you're working harder for less freedom. And freedom—time with family, the ability to step away, actually enjoying the business you built—that's what matters most. Now, as a Fractional CFO for $3M+ construction firms, he helps owners build the financial clarity and systems they need to scale profitably and get their time back. Because hitting $5M or $10M in revenue means nothing if you're still drowning in cash flow problems and can't take a week off without everything falling apart. Links: Website: https://www.raveninsights.co/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dustinhyoung/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dustinhyoung/ Conclusion: Dustin's message is simple: construction businesses don't need more hustle—they need visibility. Know what you signed, know when cash actually arrives, and track the numbers that tell the truth. Then build systems so the owner isn't the firefighter, estimator, and bottleneck all at once. Want to stop guessing and start running your business with real numbers? Listen to the full episode and then pick one action to implement this week: review your next contract's payment terms before signing, build a simple cash forecast for the next 13 weeks, or start tracking Dustin's 4 numbers consistently. #ProfitAnswerMan #ProfitFirst #ProfitComesFirst #ConstructionBusiness #Subcontractors #GeneralContractor #CashFlow #CashFlowForecast #JobCosting #GrossProfit #NetProfit #ConstructionAccounting #FractionalCFO #ConstructionFinance #BusinessSystems #Operations #Leadership #SmallBusiness #Entrepreneurship Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@profitanswerman Sign up to be notified when the next cohort of the Profit First Experience Course is available! Free Copy of the Profit Blueprint Book: : https://lp.profitcomesfirst.com/landing-page-page Monthly Newsletter signup: https://lp.profitcomesfirst.com/newsletter-signup Relay Bank (affiliate link): https://relayfi.com/?referralcode=profitcomesfirst Profit Answer Man Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/profitanswerman/ My podcast about living a richer more meaningful life: http://richersoul.com/ Music provided by Junan from Junan Podcast Any financial advice is for educational purposes only and you should consult with an expert for your specific needs.
In this insightful episode of "It's the Bottom Line That Matters," host Jennifer Glass sits down with Patricia Reszetylo and Daniel McCraine to demystify the concept of cash flow forecasting for business owners who may not have a finance background. The conversation kicks off by highlighting how forecasting is, in essence, about predicting the future—much like weather forecasting, it often involves assumptions and educated guesses. Patricia Reszetylo shares her experiences with preliminary forecasting for her real estate and restaurant ventures, while Daniel McCraine offers practical advice from his own business journey, explaining how he uses simple spreadsheets and lessons from mentors to track incoming cash and anticipate shortfalls.As the discussion unfolds, the speakers cover crucial aspects that anyone can apply, from understanding the realities behind revenue predictions to leveraging historical trends and third-party data—like restaurant supply metrics—to make forecasts more realistic. Daniel McCraine and Jennifer Glass address the significance of knowing your accounting method, explaining how both accrual and cash systems influence the way future income is tracked and reported. The episode also explores the role of recurring revenue models, pointing out the ease of forecasting when you have membership or subscription-based income streams and highlighting industry patterns about customer retention. By the end, listeners are equipped with tips to avoid common forecasting pitfalls, such as overestimating income from early sales meetings or failing to factor in typical customer drop-off rates. This episode provides clear, actionable guidance and reassurance that with the right approach, cash flow forecasting doesn't have to be intimidating—even for non-finance folks.KEYWORDS: cash flow forecasting, non-finance people, revenue, business numbers, forecast accuracy, cash flow, business forecasting, commission tracking, residual income, monthly residuals, spreadsheet forecasting, sales volume, restaurant business forecasting, business plan, speculative forecasting, accrual accounting, cash accounting, accounting methods, payment terms, unpaid invoices, recurring revenue, subscriptions, client retention, annual subscriptions, monthly subscriptions, drop off rates, accurate prediction, sales assumptions, profit forecasting, business planning, financial reporting
Download the Episode 3 workbook → https://bit.ly/p-finance-in-february-workbook This episode is part of our 4-part Finance February series and in episode #3 we stop looking at numbers … and start using them. You've got awareness (Episode 1). You've got rhythm (Episode 2). Now it's: what decisions are you making off the back of it? Because the goal isn't “be good at finance”… it's get paid properly and make calls like hiring/spending based on rules - not emotions. In this episode, you'll learn: 1) Owner pay vs profit (and why most owners stay broke). Owner pay = the salary you'd have to pay someone to replace you (fair market wage) Profit = what's left after the business runs properly (and then becomes dividends / drawings / extras) Most owners think they're profitable… because they're paying themselves $0 (that's not profit, that's unpaid wages) 2) The “Abducted You” test for owner salary. If you got abducted tomorrow … what would you list your job ad for? That's your “owner salary” number? 3) Decision rules for hiring (and the 40% labour trigger). Hiring isn't a feelings decision; it's a ratio decision. You get “permission to hire” when you're around the labour % you're targeting (the example used: ~40%) BUT only if you're hiring to grow revenue, not to “buy time” and watch Netflix. Labour % moves like stairs: hire → % goes up → revenue growth brings it back down → repeat 4) Stop spending based on vibes (use guardrails, not handcuffs) Forecasting + ratios are guardrails so you don't go broke. They're not handcuffs that stop you going big. You can break the rules - but only deliberately with a plan to bring ratios back 5) The true cost of a staff member (it's not the salary) A “$100k staff member” is not $100k. Add in things like:Super, Leave coverage, Workers comp, Payroll tax (if you're over threshold)…and you're closer to $130k+ in real cost. If you don't model this properly, you'll hire early and wonder where your profit went. 6) Smarter team design (local vs offshore + base + variable) Don't pay Aussie rates for tasks that don't require Aussie expertise Split roles: high-value work stays local, repeatable/admin gets systemised/offshored Base + variable pay models can reduce risk and align performance. Pick one of these and decide it using the numbers (not vibes): Set your owner salary (fair market wage) Separate owner pay vs profit Decide a dividend rule (how profit gets extracted) Create a hiring rule (based on ratios, not emotions) Create a spending rule (business case + cash impact) Redesign your workforce mix (what must be local vs can be offshored) Make one decision. Put it in writing. Put it in the calendar. Want the Sidekicks? (AI-powered assistants + offshore support) DM Doza on Instagram @hey.doza with the word: SIDEKICKS What's next? Episode 4 is the payoff: what to do with the money (life, wealth, long-term strategy, without doing dumb tax “business write-off” stuff). Connect with us: My website: https://thegeronimoacademy.com IG Geronimo: https://www.instagram.com/thegeronimoacademy IG Hey.Doza: https://www.instagram.com/hey.doza LinkedIn: https://au.linkedin.com/in/andrewhandosa Chapters 00:00 – Episode 3: Decisions + getting paid 00:30 – Owner pay vs profit (why they're different) 02:05 – The “abducted you” test (owner salary) 03:30 – The danger of “profit” when you pay yourself $0 05:55 – Fixing it when you can't afford your salary (sales vs overhiring) 08:00 – Profit vs dividends 12:00 – Decision rules: when to hire vs wait 13:15 – The “labour % staircase” explained 15:35 – Vibe spending vs deliberate spending 19:20 – True cost of a staff member (it's not the salary)
Andrew Martinez is a former Treasure economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at American University. In Andrew's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a forecaster, the current state of forecasting, the intersection of AI and forecasting, the role of the SEP and monetary policy surprises, his work with David on the NGDP Gap measure, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:20 - Andrew's Career 00:08:36 - State of Forecasting 00:20:19 - AI and Forecasting 00:29:34 - The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises 00:41:07 - Nominal GDP/Expectations Gap 00:54:56 - Outro
At the start of the year, economist Bill LaFayette and the Columbus Metropolitan Club predict what Columbus' economic forecast may be.Will jobs grow, will housing stay affordable, and will new industries make moves in Ohio?With big changes on the national scale, such as immigration crackdowns, tariffs and more, how will central Ohio be affected?How will these changes affect the average Ohioan and the big businesses that work here?We'll find out more in Columbus' economic forecast during this hour of All Sides.Guests:Bill LaFayette, owner and economist, Regionomics, LLCBenjamin Ayers, senior economist, NationwideDoug Buchanan, editor in chief, Columbus Business FirstIf you have a disability and would like a transcript or other accommodation you can request an alternative format.
At the start of the year, economist Bill LaFayette and the Columbus Metropolitan Club predict what Columbus' economic forecast may be.Will jobs grow, will housing stay affordable, and will new industries make moves in Ohio?With big changes on the national scale, such as immigration crackdowns, tariffs and more, how will central Ohio be affected?How will these changes affect the average Ohioan and the big businesses that work here?We'll find out more in Columbus' economic forecast during this hour of All Sides.Guests:Bill LaFayette, owner and economist, Regionomics, LLCBenjamin Ayers, senior economist, NationwideDoug Buchanan, editor in chief, Columbus Business FirstIf you have a disability and would like a transcript or other accommodation you can request an alternative format.
CX Goalkeeper - Customer Experience, Business Transformation & Leadership
This episode dives into the latest trends in AI, leadership, and digital transformation from the Lead 26 conference in Zurich. Hear firsthand insights on AI adoption, leadership challenges, and the future impact of robots and agents in the workplace. Essential listening for anyone interested in business transformation. about the guest: Andreas Giesa, Director of Digital Business Consulting at Xebia and former Head of eBusiness at Liebherr, is a visionary leader in the field of digitalization. With over 16 years of experience, he passionately drives digital business models, strategies, and innovative technologies such as AI and IoT. His focus is on customer-oriented solutions, digital excellence, and the development and empowerment of agile teams for digital transformation.Andreas Giesa, Director of Digital Business Consulting at Xebia and former Head of eBusiness at Liebherr, is a visionary leader in the field of digitalization. With over 16 years of experience, he passionately drives digital business models, strategies, and innovative technologies such as AI and IoT. His focus is on customer-oriented solutions, digital excellence, and the development and empowerment of agile teams for digital transformation. Key take-aways: AI is changing work rapidly: Agentic AI will soon impact both office and manual jobs. Backcasting for better strategy: Leaders should plan by envisioning the future and working backward. Addressing fears is crucial: Leadership must help people face and manage fears about AI adoption. Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 0:35 - Exploring Impressions from Lead 26 1:13 - AI Adoption Trends and Challenges 2:10 - The Impact of Agentic AI on Jobs 4:49 - Leadership Strategies: Backcasting vs Forecasting 7:30 - Addressing Fears and Adoption Gaps 10:10 - Key Learnings and Leadership Focus 11:37 - Upcoming Leadership Conference Plans Please, hit the follow button and leave your feedback: Apple Podcast: https://www.cxgoalkeeper.com/apple Spotify: https://www.cxgoalkeeper.com/spotify About the host: Gregorio Uglioni is a seasoned transformation leader with over 15 years of experience shaping business and digital change, consistently delivering service excellence and measurable impact. As an Associate Partner at Forward, he is recognized for his strategic vision, operational expertise, and ability to drive sustainable growth. A respected keynote speaker and host of the well-known global podcast Business Transformation Pitch with the CX Goalkeeper, Gregorio energizes and inspires organizations worldwide with his customer-centric approach to innovation. Follow Gregorio Uglioni on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregorio-uglioni/
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2026. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12984Date of first use: February 2026
Scott and Shane are dialing in for a Dynasty Free Agency discussion of players who are entering the market here in a month! Thank you for checking out the Podcast, be sure to follow and comment if you have any questions, we are always happy to answer any. For Access to our Premium Tools (Trinity, WAR & More) & Discord Community https://ddfantasyfootball.com/subscriptions/ Subscribe to the Youtube Channel DDFFB https://www.youtube.com/@DDFFB Sub to the Wake up YT Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaIJqSepjl-eZ2YEaaLciFA Subscribe to Ray's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RayGQue Check out All of Ray's Articles at Yahoo!: https://sports.yahoo.com/author/ray-garvin/ Follow Ray on Bleacher Report: https://br.app.link/7ExIDsWfHVb Follow us on Twitter: https://x.com/destinationdevy Become a Member on Youtube for access to the Dynasty Deal Show Live, Destination Chill and other member benefits, like priority reply to comments and unique badges and emojis: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV84gHvtBMXxzN9ZPI9XHfg/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If your nonprofit's checking account looks “healthy,” this episode is your friendly wake-up call: bank balance is not the same as real liquidity. Carole Santilli, CPA, Manager at Your Part-Time Controller (YPTC) Philadelphia, joins us to help leaders, board members, and development teams stop guessing and start managing cash with clarity.Carole lays out why the bank statement can be “the worst place to look” when assessing what you truly have available to spend. The heart of the conversation is the difference between true operating cash and restricted or conditional funds—money that may be sitting in your account but is already spoken for by purpose, timing, or requirements (like matching). A scholarship grant, a multi-year commitment, or a conditional advance can create the illusion of being flush, even when operations are tight.From there, the discussion turns practical: separate accounts for restricted funds, monthly reporting that keeps everyone honest, and board-level transparency that supports smarter decisions and stronger trust with funders. Carole also reinforces a widely used benchmark for stability: nonprofits should aim for three to six months of operating cash on hand—but only after restricted dollars are set aside.Forecasting takes center stage as the real “business muscle” here. Budgets are approved and static, but reality shifts: events move, grants arrive late, reimbursements lag, expenses climb with inflation, and unexpected costs (like snow removal or insurance increases) show up fast. Carole's message is consistent: forecast monthly, watch variances, and adjust early—before panic becomes policy.And for boards? She makes it plain: financial oversight isn't a passive role. Ask the “annoying” questions, understand obligations, and engage early in meetings while energy is high. As Carole puts it, “You can't support the mission if you don't have the funding and the resources.” She also reframes audits as a credibility asset: “Look at this as another tool in your toolbox” to reassure funders that your organization is well-run.This episode is a strong reminder that calm, disciplined financial practices protect mission momentum—especially when life throws curveballs.#NonprofitFinance #CashFlow #TheNonprofitShowFind us Live daily on YouTube!Find us Live daily on LinkedIn!Find us Live daily on X: @Nonprofit_ShowOur national co-hosts and amazing guests discuss management, money and missions of nonprofits! 12:30pm ET 11:30am CT 10:30am MT 9:30am PTSend us your ideas for Show Guests or Topics: HelpDesk@AmericanNonprofitAcademy.comVisit us on the web:The Nonprofit Show
Most B2B SaaS startups waste their Google Ads budget on broad keywords and homepage traffic without a plan in place. I'll show you exactly how to deploy Google Ads strategically on a low budget by focusing on infrastructure-first deployment that actually drives results.This systematic approach has helped clients generate significant revenue by focusing small budgets on high-intent keywords with the proper infrastructure in place.
ITB's Eagles beat reporter Andrew DiCecco gives his insights from covering the Eagles on a daily basis.In this episode, Andrew goes back through the 2025 Eagles draft class, summarizes their rookie seasons and forecasts their roles for 2026.► Subscribe to our Patreon Channel for exclusive information not seen or heard anywhere else and become among smartest Birds fans out there (just ask our members!!) + get all of our shows commercial free and a lot more+join our live streams with our Adam Caplan each week!https://www.patreon.com/insidethebirds►Support our sponsors!!► Simpli Safe Home Alert System: https://simplisafe.com/BIRDS for 60% OFF!► Camden Apothecary: https://camdenapothecary.com/► Soul Out of Office Gummies: https://getsoul.com. Use Promo Code: BIRDS for 30% off► Sky Motor Cars: https://www.skymotorcars.com/Follow the Hosts!► Follow our Podcast on Twitter: https://twitter.com/InsideBirds► Follow Geoff Mosher on Twitter: https://twitter.com/geoffpmosher► Follow Adam Caplan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caplannflNFL insider veterans take an in-depth look that no other show can offer! Be sure to subscribe to stay up to date with the latest news, rumors, and discussions.► Sign up for our newsletter! • Visit http://eepurl.com/hZU4_n.For more, be sure to check out our official website: https://www.insidethebirds.com
Last week the heavy rain and flooding highlighted Ireland's lack of flood defence and the issues surrounding flood relief, leaving many people across the country in despair. In light of that, today Aontú Leader and TD for Meath West Peadar Toibín will introduce a Private Members' Bill aimed at reforming Ireland's flood forecasting system and speeding up the delivery of flood defences.
In this episode, Remo Gerber (SkyCell) and Fabienne Doerig (CFO expert and consultant) discuss the challenges and strategies involved in building and scaling finance functions in fast-growing companies. The two share their experiences from different growth phases, from startups to billion-dollar organizations, and provide insights into the role of the CFO, process automation, successful fundraising tactics, and the importance of team building and system implementations. They also shed light on how CFOs can master the balancing act between being a strategic business partner and an operational gatekeeper. What you'll take away from this episode: The changing role of the CFO: From operational gatekeeper to strategic business partner who not only delivers numbers but also drives growth. Automation and systems: Why it's crucial to analyze the IT landscape carefully and implement the right systems—and how to avoid mistakes in the process. Forecasting and KPI alignment: The art of combining operational and financial figures to make better decisions. Fundraising strategies: How to manage the process, keep multiple options open, and ensure that the money actually ends up in the account. Team building: When to rely on generalists and when specialists are necessary—and how important a motivated and resilient team is for success. ALLES ZU UNICORN BAKERY: https://stan.store/fabiantausch More about Fabienne & Remo: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/remo-gerber-1153a66/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/fabienne-doerig-ch8/ Join our Founder Tactics Newsletter: 2x die Woche bekommst du die Taktiken der besten Gründer der Welt direkt ins Postfach: https://www.tactics.unicornbakery.de/ Chapter: (00:00:00) Introduction: Two Swiss guys in Zug – Why we're talking about scaling finance (00:02:14) How the role of the CFO is changing in fast-growing companies (00:06:32) From startups to scale-ups: The biggest challenges in growth (00:12:20) Systems and automation: Why the right tools are crucial (00:16:33) ERP systems: Build vs. buy – How to make the right decision (00:20:24) Data quality and KPI alignment: Bringing financial and operational figures together (00:24:12) Forecasting: Top-down vs. bottom-up – How to make realistic forecasts (00:30:06) Fundraising: Tips for the process, negotiation tactics, and capital structures (00:36:44) Capital allocation: How to prioritize investments and involve the team (00:42:15) Team building in the finance function: Generalists vs. specialists (00:47:37) Personal resilience: How CFOs deal with change and pressure (00:53:37) External consulting and outsourcing: When and how to leverage networks (01:00:42) The big picture: Data, context, and the question “Are we moving the needle?”
⭐ Connect w/ Coach, Costin & a community of real estate investors: https://www.coachcarson.com/rpm-pod-ep474 ⚒️ Costin's CapEx Planning Spreadsheet: https://www.coachcarson.com/cap-ex-planning-pod
In this episode, we explore why high ad performance numbers don't always lead to a profitable business. Matt Raminick, Founder and CEO of Sunnyside, explains how brands can grow themselves into a corner by following the wrong data. He shares why traditional metrics like ROAS can be misleading and how looking at your total bank account balance is the ultimate truth. You will learn how to use better tools to track real profit and why a brand-first approach is the secret to scaling a lifestyle business.Topics discussed in this episode: Why a 3x ROAS might still mean losing money.How vanity metrics point brands in the wrong direction.What makes MER a cleaner way to track impact.Why ROAS is easy for media buyers to inflate.How to sync Shopify and Meta for better tracking.What "A-plus players" with brand experience offer.How a 12-month forecast ensures future profitability.Why lifestyle brands keep creative close to home.What CFO-grade tools reveal about true contribution. Links & Resources Website: https://www.sunnysidecalifornia.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattraminick/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sunnysidecaliforniaGet access to more free resources by visiting the show notes at https://tinyurl.com/5enfjcrb______________________________________________________ LOVE THE SHOW? HERE ARE THE NEXT STEPS! Follow the podcast to get every bonus episode. Tap follow now and don't miss out! Rate & Review: Help others discover the show by rating the show on Apple Podcasts at https://tinyurl.com/ecb-apple-podcasts Join our Free Newsletter: https://newsletter.ecommercecoffeebreak.com/ Support The Show On Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/EcommerceCoffeeBreak Partner with us: https://ecommercecoffeebreak.com/partner-with-us/
In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Dan Miller, CFO at RightRev. They unpack why leasing is underused in software, how RevTech emerged, and why revenue recognition may be the next AI battleground. Dan also shares how he evaluates durable growth vs. hypergrowth.—SPONSORS:Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you're scaling on an ERP that wasn't built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.aiBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That's why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com—LINKS: Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danmillercpa/RightRev: https://www.rightrev.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:41 Why Operating Experience Matters for CFOs00:04:08 Defining Durable Growth00:06:06 Snowflake and Consumption Revenue Complexity00:10:17 Forecasting in Consumption Models00:11:29 AI's Role in Revenue Forecasting00:12:14 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacus AI00:15:39 Comping Sales in Usage-Based Models00:18:15 Leasing as a Software Monetization Tool00:20:47 The CFO's Role in Sales and GTM00:22:29 How CFOs Help Close Deals00:24:14 Rev Tech vs RevOps00:26:20 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev00:29:40 Where AI Actually Helps Rev Rec00:31:55 Deterministic vs Probabilistic AI00:33:05 Why Enterprises Hesitate on AI Agents00:34:18 Startups vs Incumbents in the AI Race00:35:13 FOMO, Overfunding, and Market Distortions00:38:13 CFO Playbooks Without Hypergrowth00:39:38 Finding PMF as a CFO00:41:15 Career Advice: Growth vs Shiny Objects00:42:00 Building the CEO–CFO Relationship00:42:49 Learning Beyond the Back Office00:43:22 Lightning Round00:44:28 Advice to My Younger Self00:45:09 Finance Tech Stack00:46:36 Credits
In this episode of The Modern Muse Diaries, Taylor Carr interviews astrology Goddess Katherine Wehler on the 2026 energy, magnetism, and love forcasting.Astro Love Codes:www.katherinewehler.com/shop/astrolovecodeCODE: Muse for 10% off
In today's episode we are joined by Luke from the research team to discuss Blockworks Research's report on using Pendle's sUSDe term structure to forecast crypto market regimes. It covers yield curves, backwardation versus contango signals, links to Bitcoin returns, Pendle V2 mechanics, and the potential future role of Boros and money market integration. Thanks for tuning in! As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice. -- Resources: Forecasting Market Regimes with the sUSDe Term Structure Report: https://app.blockworksresearch.com/unlocked/defi-yield-curve Ethena Overview Analytics Data Dashboard: https://blockworks.com/analytics/ethena -- Follow Blockworks Research: https://x.com/blockworksres Follow Luke: https://x.com/0xMether Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_ Follow Boccaccio: https://x.com/salveboccaccio -- Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3foDS38 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3SNhUEt Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3NlP1hA Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (1:06) sUSDe Yield Curves on Pendle (8:38) Term Structure Signals and Positioning (22:44) Mean Reversion in Crypto Yield Regimes (32:03) Ethena Yield Drivers and Funding Volatility (41:12) Boros and the Future of Rate Markets (52:56) Current Market Outlook Using the Curve (57:19) Closing Comments -- Check out Blockworks Research today! Research, data, governance, tokenomics, and models – now, all in one place Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Free Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 0xResearch is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Boccaccio, Danny, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Brett Queener, Managing Director at Bonfire Ventures, to trace the origins of ARR and examine how new revenue models are reshaping B2B software. Drawing on Brett's time at Salesforce and SmartRecruiters, they explore the shift from annual contracts to outcome-based pricing, what it means for forecasting and gtm strategy, and where the next major inflection points in SaaS are likely to emerge.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you're scaling on an ERP that wasn't built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.aiBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That's why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Brett on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettqueener/Brett's Substack: https://queener.substack.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comThe Staffing Ratios Salesforce Used, with Brett Queener of Bonfire VChttps://youtu.be/lJVgstAXjJs—TIMESTAMPS:00:02:54 Welcome Brett & episode setup00:03:51 On-prem software to SaaS00:05:54 Salesforce & recurring revenue00:07:15 On-prem costs & partner bloat00:09:58 Contracts, control & comp shifts00:14:15 Lock-in, renewals & SaaS drift00:16:20 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs00:19:48 From buying to hiring software00:21:59 Agents change pricing & planning00:25:59 Forecasting without ARR00:28:03 Talent models break00:29:45 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome00:33:01 Rethinking sales & comp00:36:47 Selling by doing the job00:40:50 The future role of sales00:46:10 Zombie SaaS & category collapse00:51:07 Context as the moat00:56:07 Where AI hits next00:58:44 Vertical AI & hidden TAMs01:02:12 $1B startups vs mega rounds01:05:48 Dilution, fund math & pressure01:08:03 Choosing your founder path
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2026. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12981Date of first use: January, 2026
AP correspondent Julie Walker reports groundhog Punxsutawney Phil predicts six more weeks of winter.
Health systems continue to wrestle with fragmented procurement and distribution models across non-acute sites. In this episode, we explore how leaders can shift from siloed operations to integrated logistics by using forecasting and analytics to reduce variation, strengthen supply reliability and cut waste across the enterprise.This episode is sponsored by McKesson Medical-Surgical.
Guest Nixo Rokish Panelists Eriol Fox | Victory Brown Show Notes In this live episode of Sustain from Devconnect in Buenos Aires, host Eriol Fox and co-host Victory Brown sit down with Nixo Rokish, Protocol Support Lead at the Ethereum Foundation, to unpack how Ethereum's deeply decentralized governance actually works in practice. They dive into the nuts and bolts of coordinating 100+ core contributors across 11+ client teams, why neutral facilitation is crucial, how Ethereum's upgrade and EIP process avoids “single maintainer” failure modes, and what lessons other open source projects can steal to make their own governance more sustainable. The episode concludes with Nixo promoting the EthStaker project focused on decentralized staking. Hit download now to hear more! [00:00:38] Nixo explains Ethereum as a rare example of truly decentralized governance and she describes the Protocol Coordination team. [00:02:25] Why does this governance model matter for sustainability? Nixo says most projects rely on 1-2 key people and if they leave, the project can stall or die. [00:04:09] Eriol asks if anyone resists this decentralized, community-led governance model. Nixo says active participants are mostly enthusiastic about the process and the main friction from VCs wanting more control and social media “ship faster” pressure. [00:05:51] Eriol talks about money and influence entering open source projects and Nixo shares that core devs are motivated by building systems for many people, not concentrating profit. [00:08:00] Nixo walks through the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) process. [00:11:38] Victory asks how they manage consensus with so many people and companies involved. Nixo explains 11+ client times, only one is within EF, other are independent companies/nonprofits. [00:13:36] Eriol reacts to how impressive it is that devs can reach consensus via facilitation and asks Nixo for advice for smaller open source projects that want to adopt similar practices. Her key advice is to have a neutral facilitator. [00:16:13] Nixo shares where you can find her on the internet and she spotlights a project she used to work at called, EthStaker. Links podcast@sustainoss.org richard@sustainoss.org SustainOSS Discourse SustainOSS Mastodon SustainOSS Bluesky SustainOSS LinkedIn Open Collective-SustainOSS (Contribute) Richard Littauer Socials Eriol Fox X Victory Brown X Nixo Rokish X Devconnect-Buenos Aires, Argentina 2025, 17-22 November Ethereum Ethereum Foundation Institute of Forecasting & Planning EthStaker Credits Produced by Richard Littauer Edited by Paul M. Bahr at Peachtree Sound Show notes by DeAnn Bahr Peachtree Sound Logistical support by Tina Arboleda from Digital Savvies Special Guest: Nixo Rokish.
In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Dan Griggs, CFO of Intercom, to break down how finance leaders should think about pricing, forecasting, and resource allocation in the AI era. Dan explains why “it's not zero” is his guiding forecasting principle, how Intercom landed on 99 cents per AI resolution for Fin, and what it means to build an AI product that could eventually cannibalize a successful SaaS core. A candid look at managing uncertainty while still making bold bets.—SPONSORS:Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That's why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you're scaling on an ERP that wasn't built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai—LINKS:Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-griggs-0970181/Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brownhttps://youtu.be/ttedn4AULt8—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Cold Open00:01:03 Intro to Dan Griggs and Intercom's AI Pivot00:02:45 From Ice Cream to SaaS: Early Finance Lessons00:04:19 Learning the Business by Living the Operations00:06:26 Why Operational Reality Shapes Better Forecasts00:08:00 “It's Not Zero”: Forecasting the Unknowable00:10:09 Scenario Planning, Ambiguity, and Psychological Safety00:11:23 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev00:14:43 Keeping a Mental Model of Key Business Metrics00:16:15 Using Mental Math to Sanity-Check Forecasts00:17:28 Core Ratios Every CFO Uses to Vet Decisions00:19:13 The Burn-the-Boats Moment for Intercom's AI Pivot00:20:53 Why AI Was an Existential, Not Incremental, Bet00:22:21 Which SaaS Categories AI Can Fully Replace Work00:23:04 Why Finance Hasn't Had Its AI Moment Yet00:23:39 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum00:27:05 Why Fin Needed Outcome-Based Pricing00:28:59 The Tradeoff Behind $0.99 Per Resolution00:30:46 Why Support Conversations Vary in Complexity00:32:01 What Drives the Unit Economics of AI Resolutions00:33:08 How Intercom Chooses Models as Costs Fall00:35:19 Replacing Generic LLMs With Domain-Specific Models00:36:08 Selling an AI Product That Could Cannibalize the Core00:38:50 Founder CEOs Versus Professional CEOs00:41:47 Hiring Mistakes and Acting on Instincts00:44:28 Intercom's Finance Software Stack00:45:49 The Craziest Expense Request#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Intercom #AICustomerSupport #OutcomeBasedPricing #CFOInsights This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
In this episode of FP&A Unlocked, hosts Paul Barnhurst and Glenn Snyder sit down with Jeffrey Bernstein to explore how finance leaders can better communicate financial insights and influence decision-making across an organization. The conversation focuses on the gap between technical financial knowledge and the ability to clearly explain what the numbers actually mean to non-finance stakeholders.Jeffrey is a Senior Managing Director and Head of Capital Markets Advisory at Riveron, a leading advisor to the Office of the CFO and Private Equity. Early in his career, Jeff was a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, where he helped execute IPOs in the technology sector for over a decade. Afterward, he spent more than 15 years as a portfolio manager investing in disruptive public and private companies. For the last eight years, Jeff has served as a trusted strategic advisor to pre-IPO companies, guiding them toward successful public exits.Expect to Learn:Why finance professionals play a crucial role in the IPO processHow to prepare a company financially for a successful public listingThe importance of building financial trust with public investorsHow to evaluate the readiness of your financial systems and team for the IPO processHere are a few relevant quotes from the episode:“The biggest change from private to public is transitioning from over-promising to under-promising and over-delivering.”- Jeff Bernstein“Financial integrity isn't just about the numbers; it's about being transparent, avoiding gimmicks, and sticking to metrics that have real meaning.”- Jeff BernsteinJeff shares valuable insights on the complexities of going public, managing quarterly earnings, and maintaining investor trust. He also discusses how FP&A teams can help steer the company through financial reporting, forecasting, and strategic decision-making post-IPO.Follow Jeffrey:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-bernstein-498a23158/Company - https://www.linkedin.com/company/riveron/Website - https://riveron.com/Follow Glenn:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/glenntsnyder/Earn Your CPE Credit For CPE credit please go to earmarkcpe.com, listen to the episode, download the app, and answer a few questions and earn your CPE certification. To earn education credits for FPAC Certificate, take the quiz on earmark and contact Paul Barnhurst for further details.In Today's Episode[01:42] – Meet Jeff Bernstein[04:58] – Transitioning to Public Company[08:36] – The Role of FP&A in IPO[12:44] – Investor Trust and Forecasting[17:10] – Financial Integrity[21:58] – Preparing for the IPO Process[26:35] – Stress-Testing Forecasts[30:42] – Earning Investor Trust[34:18] – Organizational...
In this 2022 episode, we talked to David Wolfe (1941-2023) about his sixty plus year career in fashion working as a groundbreaking trend forecaster, fashion illustrator, and paper doll artist. More David Wolfe: David's paper doll work David's interview on The Decorder Ring podcast Want more Dressed: The History of Fashion? Our website and classes Our Instagram Our bookshelf with over 150 of our favorite fashion history titles Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Guest: Matthew CappucciIf you've ever watched a weather forecast and thought, “Wow, that meteorologist has way more energy than the atmosphere itself,” there's a good chance you were watching Matthew Cappucci. He's a scientist, a storyteller, a storm chaser, an author, a communicator who somehow manages to make jet streaks sound exciting — and now he's back on the show! Today, we're talking to Matthew about how he brings weather to life across TV, print, social media, and whatever platform he conquers next. We'll chat about the state of weather communication in the age of algorithms, how he cuts through the noise without losing the science, and where he thinks the industry is headed as our storms — and our conversations — keep evolving.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Matthew Cappucci03:02 Matthew's Journey into Meteorology05:51 Creating Engaging Weather Content08:48 The Impact of Social Media on Weather Communication11:48 Challenges in Weather Forecasting14:59 Navigating the Noise in Weather Communication18:04 The Role of Meteorologists in the Digital Age21:01 Future of Weather Communication23:49 Closing Thoughts and ReflectionsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Signup for RevUP Academy: https://www.thecustomersuccesspro.com/revupIn this episode of the Customer Success Pro Podcast, host Anika Zubair sits down with Emma Lambert, VP of Customer Success at Ably, to discuss the critical role of customer success in driving revenue. They explore how to turn renewals into predictable revenue forecasts, the importance of understanding customer engagement, and the strategies for effective upselling. Emma shares her insights on building a revenue-focused customer success team, the significance of financial literacy, and the necessity of asking direct questions during customer interactions. The conversation emphasizes the need for a structured approach to renewals and upsells, integrating them into a cohesive NRR strategy, and the value of continuous discovery throughout the customer journey.Chapters:00:00 Introduction 03:00 The Role of Customer Success in Revenue Generation05:55 Understanding Customer Engagement and Value Delivery09:06 The Importance of Forecasting in Customer Success12:10 Navigating the Commercial Landscape of Customer Success15:02 Building a Revenue-Focused Customer Success Team18:10 The Six-Month Renewal Framework21:10 Asking the Right Questions for Renewals24:09 Upselling Strategies in Customer Success26:55 Integrating Renewals and Upsells into NRR Strategy30:02 Best Practices for Revenue-Focused Customer Success32:56 Quick Fire Questions with Emma LambertConnect with Anika Zubair:Website: https://thecustomersuccesspro.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anikazubair/RevUP Academy: https://thecustomersuccesspro.com/revupConnect with Emma Lampert: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emmalampert/Grab our FREE resources here: https://thecustomersuccesspro.com/resourcesWant to be our next podcast guest? Apply here: https://www.thecustomersuccesspro.com/podcast-guestBook Anika as a speaker at your next team event: https://www.thecustomersuccesspro.com/team-event
Next to forecasting customer demand, aligning production capacity with anticipated sales is the stuff of manufacturing forecasting. In this blog post, we go over production forecasting essentials, look at how to implement a forecasting system, and see the role manufacturing software can play in ensuring that the shop floor is aligned with forecasted sales numbers. You can learn more in this episode or read about it on our blog For more information about the MRPeasy software, visit our website: mrpeasy.com
The power grid is getting harder to run. There's more wind and solar on the system, more sudden weather shocks, and less room for mistakes. How can the energy industry move past basic demand forecasts and focus on the tougher question: what's the grid really going to need once you account for renewables?In this conversation, Alex is joined by Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. They explore how new weather models are offering better visibility for renewables and how the growing impact of data centers on electricity demand and grid planning is affecting markets, from Texas to Europe.Key topics discussed:• How forecasting accuracy can make or break performance during grid stress events.• Why forecasting 'net demand' is changing how renewable generation and storage is operated and traded.• How better forecasting is changing who wins (and loses) in power markets.• How data access and quality varies across ERCOT, NYISO, and European TSOs.• What rapid data center growth means for load, reliability, and energy security.About our guestSean Kelly is the Co-founder and CEO of Amperon, an AI-powered forecasting company built for the energy transition. Former energy trader with 20+ years of experience, including managing power portfolios and nuclear integration at EDF. Sean started Amperon after seeing firsthand how messy and limiting energy data can be and how much better decisions could be with the right tools. Find Sean on LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-kelly-0792626/For more information on Amperon, head to their website: https://www.amperon.co/About Modo EnergyModo Energy helps the owners, operators, builders, and financiers of battery energy storage understand the market — and make the most out of their assets.All episodes of Transmission are available to watch or listen to on the Modo Energy site. To stay up to date with our analysis, research, data visualisations, live events, and conversations, follow us on LinkedIn. Explore The Energy Academy, our bite-sized video series explaining how power markets work.#renewableenergy #AI #datacenter #EnergyStorage
The power grid is getting harder to run. There's more wind and solar on the system, more sudden weather shocks, and less room for mistakes. How can the energy industry move past basic demand forecasts and focus on the tougher question: what's the grid really going to need once you account for renewables?In this conversation, Alex is joined by Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. They explore how new weather models are offering better visibility for renewables and how the growing impact of data centers on electricity demand and grid planning is affecting markets, from Texas to Europe.Key topics discussed:• How forecasting accuracy can make or break performance during grid stress events.• Why forecasting 'net demand' is changing how renewable generation and storage is operated and traded.• How better forecasting is changing who wins (and loses) in power markets.• How data access and quality varies across ERCOT, NYISO, and European TSOs.• What rapid data center growth means for load, reliability, and energy security.About our guestSean Kelly is the Co-founder and CEO of Amperon, an AI-powered forecasting company built for the energy transition. Former energy trader with 20+ years of experience, including managing power portfolios and nuclear integration at EDF. Sean started Amperon after seeing firsthand how messy and limiting energy data can be and how much better decisions could be with the right tools. Find Sean on LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-kelly-0792626/For more information on Amperon, head to their website: https://www.amperon.co/About Modo EnergyModo Energy helps the owners, operators, builders, and financiers of battery energy storage understand the market — and make the most out of their assets.All episodes of Transmission are available to watch or listen to on the Modo Energy site. To stay up to date with our analysis, research, data visualisations, live events, and conversations, follow us on LinkedIn. Explore The Energy Academy, our bite-sized video series explaining how power markets work.#renewableenergy #AI #datacenter #EnergyStorage
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2026. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12979Date of first use: January, 2026
Welcome solo and group practice owners! We are Liath Dalton and Evan Dumas, your co-hosts of Group Practice Tech. In our latest episode, we have an update (and are once again offering reassurance) around the proposed HIPAA Security Rule changes. We discuss: The proposed Security Rule update on the OCR's spring regulatory agenda Why you're already in good hands if you're following PCT's advice Some of the proposed changes that will impact therapy practices Reassurance about these proposed changes Effective dates versus compliance date Forecasting scenarios for these changes to take effect Steps to take now (and important things to not do now) to be proactive rather than reactive Listen here: https://personcenteredtech.com/group/podcast/ For more, visit our website. PCT Resources: Article: HIPAA Security Rule Changes: January 2026 Update & What Practices Need to Know Explore our in-depth article unpacking the proposed HIPAA Security Rule updates — what's really happening, why it matters, and why this is a runway, not a cliff. You can also use our free Mini Risk Tool(download link in article) for a gentle check-in to see where your practice stands and what would most meaningfully support your security and compliance foundation. PCT's Comprehensive HIPAA Security Compliance Program (discounted) bundles: For Group Practices For Solo Practitioners Comprehensive HIPAA Security Policies & Procedures Forms & Logs for documenting implementation and maintenance of Policies & Procedures in practice Device & Workspace Security Suites Direct Support & Consultation from PCT team + therapist attorney Eric Ström, JD PhD LMHC (live & recorded + searchable library) Includes the Risk Analysis & Risk Mitigation Planning service + tool HIPAA Security & Privacy Ethics training HIPAA Risk Analysis & Risk Mitigation Planning service for mental health group practices — care for your practice using our supportive, shame-free risk analysis and mitigation planning service. You'll have your Risk Analysis done within 2 hours, performed by a PCT consultant, using a tool built specifically for mental health group practice, and a mitigation checklist to help you reduce your risks. Group Practice Care Premium weekly (live & recorded) direct support & consultation service, Group Practice Office Hours — including monthly session with therapist attorney Eric Ström, JD PhD LMHC + assignable staff HIPAA Security Awareness: Bring Your Own Device training + access to Device Security Center with step-by-step device-specific tutorials & registration forms for securing and documenting all personally owned & practice-provided devices (for *all* team members at no per-person cost) + assignable staff HIPAA Security Awareness: Remote Workspaces training for all team members + access to Remote Workspace Center with step-by-step tutorials & registration forms for securing and documenting Remote Workspaces (for *all* team members at no per-person cost) + more
In this perspectives episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier challenges the value of short-term market forecasts and urges listeners to focus instead on long-term financial planning. Drawing from recent blog posts and research by financial thinkers like Bob C. Wright, Ruben Miller, and Larry Swedroe, Jeff outlines why predictions often miss the mark and how earnings yield can guide more meaningful expectations. He offers practical advice for building resilient portfolios, emphasizing humility, diversification, and focusing on what we can control in uncertain times. Topics covered: Why annual market forecasts are often unreliable The psychological allure of financial predictions The difference between short-term forecasts and long-term return assumptions Insights from Bob C. Wright's “Forecasting Follies” Ruben Miller's satirical take on 2026 forecasts How earnings yield helps set intermediate-term expectations The role of the CAPE ratio in understanding market valuations US market overvaluation and the case for international diversification How government deficit spending has impacted recent market performance Building resilient portfolios for retirees and pre-retirees Practical portfolio planning principles for uncertain environments Encouragement to focus on controllable factors and maintain realistic optimism Useful Links: Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/ TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/ TandemGrowth Financial Advisors (“TandemGrowth”), a registered investment adviser, is providing this video which is intended for general educational purposes and is not personalized investment advice. The information provided is not tailored to any individual's specific investment objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that TandemGrowth has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While the content that will be presented is believed to be factual and up to date, it is based on information obtained from a variety of sources. TandemGrowth believes this information is reliable, however, it has not necessarily been independently verified. TandemGrowth does not guarantee the complete accuracy of all data in this video, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the presenter as of the date of the webinar and are subject to change. This video does not constitute personalized advice from TandemGrowth or its affiliated investment professionals, or a solicitation to execute specific securities transactions. Participants should not use any of this content as the sole basis for any investment, financial planning, tax, legal or other decisions. TandemGrowth is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the video content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. We encourage attendees to conduct independent research and seek advice from qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this video should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by TandemGrowth, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. Additional information about our Firm, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and Form CRS is available upon request and at www.tandemgrowth.com.
AquaSpy: https://aquaspy.com/ On the show today is Bruce Moeller, before buying AquaSpy in 2009 Bruce was already a serial entrepreneur, a former president of a publicly traded company, and an author of two books. He successfully grew and exited Culture Works and Drive Cam, which was an early dash cam company. He decided to apply the idea they used at Drive Cam to use technology to capture what hadn't been easily recorded previously, to agriculture. Specifically in-situ monitoring of soil conditions around a plant's roots. So Bruce and his team bought AquaSpy, a company out of Adelaide, Australia in 2009, so really early in this part of agtech, and they've been operating it ever since. Bruce is not from an ag background, but as you'll hear he looked at this as more of a feature than a bug. To describe AquaSpy, Bruce uses the analogy of the ecosystem of the rhizosphere, this area of soil around the roots of having it's own weather. And AquaSpy being a tool to check the weather down there, which has all sorts of applications, especially with their latest feature, which allows them to also measure in-situ nitrogen in real time. We talk about how AquaSpy is approaching their technology and the problems it solves for farmers, and we talk about how AI is enabling them to move in a more predictive direction with the data they're collecting.
In this episode of Sg2 Perspectives, host Trevor DaRin is joined by Sg2 experts Tori Richie and Karyl Kopaskie, PhD, to unpack the 2026 Insurance Coverage Forecast and major shifts expected across Medicaid, the ACA exchanges, commercial coverage and Medicare Advantage. They also discuss how this data informs Sg2's Impact of Change® forecast and supports scenario planning for demand and utilization. This conversation delivers timely insights for health system leaders preparing for shifting payer dynamics. Sg2 Perspectives Listener Feedback Survey: We would love to hear from you - Please click here We are always excited to get ideas and feedback from our listeners. You can reach us at sg2perspectives@sg2.com, or visit the Sg2 company page on LinkedIn.
Today we are joined by Carla and Joe Policastro of Cycle CPA to talk about forecasting revenue and overhead from their 2-day virtual event that they held.Sponsors:Cycle CPA
In this episode of First Round's On Me, we sit down with Lindsey Simcik — writer, mother, wife, and co-host of the global podcast phenomenon Almost 30 — for a powerful conversation about the “in-between seasons” of life: the moments where you don't feel like yourself anymore, but you're not quite sure who you're becoming next.Lindsey opens up about building Almost 30 from a closet floor, why authenticity is the only thing that truly creates connection, and how so many people today are living in a constant state of performance — chasing validation, comparison, followers, and approval.We dive into anxiety as a messenger (not a monster), identity shifts through motherhood, resentment and guilt in early parenting, and the “unsexy” conversations that actually make relationships stronger, healthier, and yes… even sexier.This episode is honest, deeply grounding, and one of those conversations that makes you feel less alone — in your relationship, your parenting journey, your anxiety, and your becoming.
Damona is joined by her good friend Danny Santos, shaman, healer, astrologer, and tarot reader, to look at the astrology of 2026 and how it's setting the stage for love this year. What You'll Hear In This Episode Key transits and cosmic shifts to watch out for in the year ahead Which houses in your birth chart actually matter for compatibility, and why your moon sign may reveal more than your sun sign Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's astrological compatibility breakdown, plus celebrity couples Danny is watching in 2026 The Year of the Horse energy: how to use the adventurous energy of the year to propel you into love Resources and Links Book a session with Danny Santos at santoscrystalvisions.com and use code DATES for 10% off your first session Follow Danny on Instagram @SantosCrystalVisions Unlock the Secret to Successful Dating with our Date Tracker at damonahoffman.com/datetracker Call or text your question to: 424-246-6255 Follow @damonahoffman on TikTok and submit questions via DM or voice memo anytime. *Our IG and FB are currently paused, so use any of the other apps and phone to contact us this week* Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets takes a look at multiple indicators that are pointing on the same direction: strong growth for markets and the economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about an unusual alignment of signs of optimism for the global cyclical backdrop and why these are important to watch. It's Friday, January 9th at 2pm in London. 2026 is now well underway. Forecasting is difficult and a humbling exercise; and 2025 certainly showed that even in a good year for markets, you can have some serious twists and turns. But overall, Morgan Stanley Research still thinks the year ahead will be a positive one, with equities higher and bond yields modestly lower. It's off to an eventful start, certainly, but we think that core message remains in place. But instead of going back again to our forecasts through the year ahead, I wanted to focus instead on a wide variety of different assets that have long been viewed as leading indicators of the global cyclical environment. I think these are important, and what's notable is that they're all moving in the same direction – all indicating a stronger cyclical backdrop. While today's market certainly has some areas of speculative activity and excessive valuations, the alignment of these things suggests something more substantive may be going on. First, Copper prices, which tend to be volatile but economically sensitive, have been rising sharply up about 40 percent in the last year. A key index of non-traded industrial commodities for everything from Glass to Tin, which is useful because it means it's less likely to be influenced by investor activity, well, it's been up 10 percent over the last year. Korean equities, which tend to be highly cyclical and thus have long been viewed by investors as a proxy for global economic optimism, well, they were the best performing major market last year, up 80 percent. Smaller cap stocks, which again, tend to be more economically sensitive, well, they've been outperforming larger ones. And last but not least, Financial stocks in the U.S. and Europe. Again, a sector that tends to be quite economically sensitive. Well, they've been outperforming the broader market and to a pretty significant degree. These are different assets in different regions that all appear to be saying the same thing – that the outlook for global cyclical activity has been getting better and has now actually been doing so for some time. Now, any individual indicator can be wrong. But when multiple indicators all point in the same direction, that's pretty worthy of attention. And I think this ties in nicely with a key message from my colleague, Mike Wilson from Monday's episode; that the positive case for U.S. equities is very much linked to better fundamental activity. Specifically, our view that earnings growth may be stronger than appreciated. Of course, the data will have a say, and if these indicators turn down, it could suggest a weaker economic and cyclical backdrop. But for now, these various cyclical indicators are giving a positive read. If they continue to do so, it may raise more questions around central bank policy and to what extent further rate cuts are consistent with these signs of a stronger global growth backdrop. For now, we think they remain supporting evidence of our core view that this market cycle can still burn hotter before it burns out. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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