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On May 6, attend our free web class to learn the proven hiring framework top contractors use to attract and retain A players during a labor shortage. Register here: https://trybta.com/CE-HIRING-M25To learn more about Breakthrough Academy, click here: https://trybta.com/EP212Grab your free financial management resource bundle here: https://trybta.com/DL212 A few weeks ago, Danny cohosted a web class with Matt Risinger (Host of The BUILD Show) on one of the most important topics in business: finances.On top of teaching the hundreds of attendees our approachable financial management systems, I had a chance to pick Matt's brain about his experience managing cash flow as he grew his company into the monster it is today.So we're releasing the web class on the podcast to give you everything you need to run your finances like a 7-figure contractor.We're covering budgets, forecasting, cash flow, and how to drive results with your team. If the thought of financial management gives you a migraine, this webinar replay is for you.Episode Highlights:Discover the least painful way to track your budgets, forecasting, and overhead—without wasting hours with mind-numbing numbers.Learn how to take the guesswork out of your financial decision-making by understanding your industry benchmarks.Get insight into how Matt Risinger avoids lumpy cash flow and why Risinger Build NEVER bids on work.00:00-Intro06:12-About Danny and Matt10:06-Purpose and outcomes12:18-Why is staying on top of your numbers so hard?20:39-Matt Risinger on Breakthrough Academy23:15-Budgeting38:43-What does “good” look like?41:20-Gross profit margins as you evolve46:14-Financial forecasting52:19-Driving numbers with your team59:37-Implementing change01:07:09-Q&A
Watch the video version on YouTube. Financials, the second largest sector in the S&P 500, has had its fair share of ups and downs in recent years. As the Federal Reserve kicked off its aggressive rate hiking campaign in 2022, the yield curve inverted, loan growth slowed and M&A activity plummeted, all of which hampered earnings growth. Then, in March 2023, the failures of several U.S. regional banks sparked concerns about the health of the banking sector and commercial real estate market. The dust from this crisis gradually settled, which, in conjunction with Fed rate cuts and a resilient consumer, helped the sector gain over 30% in 2024. In fact, financial deregulation is now top of mind, with the Trump administration recently naming “regulatory dove” Michelle Bowman as the Federal Reserve's next Vice Chair of Supervision. Prospects for increased deregulation, in addition to trends in consumer spending, will be key themes moving forward. Companies in financials tend to be represented in the value style and can be a good complement to growth exposure, especially the Magnificent 7. On this episode of Insights Now, Gabriela Santos, is joined by Laura Huang, an equity research analyst covering financials at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss Laura's day-to-day, and what she is seeing across her sector. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify
In the difficult approach to the climax to the summit of Mt.Meru a in the 90-Days journey of the season of growth, we have come near to the womb of the void. In this episode, we Foretell or Four telling of the numerology of “four” as luck, chance, or individual's energies of karma or the action of that can change the course of our destiny. Kali is unpredictable, unexpected, unknowing, unwilling void that will create and destroy all things. In the Kali Yuga, we have to go through the death and destruction to get to the peak of the Golden Ages. This is called growing pains. As the sleeping phoenix awakens, no human experience can explain the consciousness shift as a whole until the individual self is fully aware his self-autonomy and her self-authority in making wise decisions. The forecasting of how the planet Uranus play in the evolutionary of disseminations of the soul discovery in bite size serving of the ‘Golden Nuggets” in the last 86 days from the base of the mountain to the peaks and valleys on this journey. The Cosmic Significance of our self- understanding is learning how to actually be self-realized over a thousand ways we can experience through the GPS(God Planning System) of inner process and outer process that allowed us to perceive the views to make appropriate decisions that are not wasteful of our divine and defined energies that are build in our bodies. You can have the Four-sight to see near and far. Lean to have the sight to build stamina to have a wealth of wisdom of insight and deep sightings of what about to come in the shift of directions and dimensions. Bon-voyage!
Auch heute freue ich mich wieder darüber, einen äußerst kompetenten und prominenten Gast vorstellen zu dürfen: Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer. Das Thema ist eines, das uns seit einiger Zeit begleitet, und auch noch weiter begleiten wird, denn es gehört zu den wesentlichsten Fragen der heutigen Zeit. Werden wir von der stetig steigenden Komplexität in unserer Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft und Wissenschaft überrollt, oder gelingt es, Mechanismen zu entwickeln, trotzdem kluge und resiliente Entscheidungen zu treffen? Entscheidungen, die uns auch helfen, mit komplexen Risiken umzugehen? Gerd Gigerenzer war unter anderem langjähriger Direktor am Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, ist Direktor des Harding Center for Risk Literacy an der Universität Potsdam, Partner von Simply Rational - The Institute for Decisions und Vizepräsident des European Research Council (ERC). Er ist ehemaliger Professor für Psychologie an der Universität von Chicago und John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law an der Universität von Virginia. Darüber hinaus ist er Mitglied der Berlin-Brandenburgischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, der Deutschen Akademie der Wissenschaften und der British Academy sowie Ehrenmitglied der American Academy of Arts and Sciences und der American Philosophical Society. Er hat unzählige Preise gewonnen sowie zahlreiche Bücher geschrieben, die nicht nur inhaltlich höchst relevant sondern zudem auch noch sehr zugänglich für eine breite Leserschicht sind. Zu seinen Forschungsschwerpunkten zählen: Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit und Zeitbeschränkung Risikokompetenz und Risikokommunikation Entscheidungsstrategien von Managern, Richtern und Ärzten Und genau über diese Themen werden wir uns in der Episode unterhalten. Wie geht man in Situationen großer Unsicherheit mit Daten und Informationen um? »Je größer die Unsicherheit ist, desto mehr Informationen muss man ignorieren.« Was ist eine Heuristik, und welche Heuristiken wenden wir erfolgreich in welchen Situationen an? »In Situationen von Unsicherheit, verlassen sich Menschen nicht auf die ganze Vergangenheit, sondern auf die jüngste Vergangenheit — das nennt man recency Heuristik.« Warum führen mehr Daten nicht immer zu besseren Entscheidungen? »Ein Datenpunkt, gut gewählt, erlaubt [in vielen Fällen] bessere Vorhersagen als Big Data« Was ist Intuition und unter welchen Umständen ist intuitives sinnvoller als vermeintlich rationales Entscheiden? »Intuition ist keine Willkür. Intuition ist gefühltes Wissen, das auf jahrelanger Erfahrung beruht.« Was ist von den neuen Theorien der Rationalität, z. B. dem System 1 und 2 von Kahnemann zu halten? »The abject failure of models in the global financial crisis has not dented their popularity among regulators.«, Mervyn King Was ist defensives Entscheiden, und warum ist es eines der größten Probleme unserer modernen Welt? »Der Arzt ist nicht in einer Situation, dem Patienten das Beste zu empfehlen. Viele Ärzte fürchten, dass die Patienten klagen, insbesondere, wenn etwas unterlassen wurde. Die Patienten klagen nicht, wenn unnötige Operationen vorgenommen wurden.« Weniger kann oft mehr sein: »Viele Menschen denken — auch in der Wissenschaft — mehr ist immer besser.« Dabei gilt in den meisten Fällen, gerade auch dort, wo wir häufig versuchen, komplexe Modelle anzuwenden: »Je größer die Unsicherheit ist, umso einfacher muss man die Regulierung [oder das Modell] machen.« Eine Erkenntnis, die im Grunde jedem klar ist, der sich mit der Steuerung komplexer Systeme auseinandersetzt. Warum handeln wir stetig dagegen? »Wir brauchen eine Welt, die den Mut hat zur Vereinfachung.« Und dann gibt es noch den Aspekt der Rückkopplung von (schlechten) Modellen auf die Welt, die sie vermeintlich beschreiben oder vorhersagen, und wir kommen leicht in einen Teufelskreis der zirkulären und selbstverstärkenden Fehler. Wie lassen sich diese vermeiden? Was wird die Folge sein, wenn diese Formen der Modellierung und Verhaltenssteuerung auf eine immer totalitärere und total überwachte Gesellschaft trifft? Entwickeln wir uns aber in der Realität mit künstlicher Intelligenz, Large Language Models und IT-getriebener Automatisierung, aber nicht gerade ins Gegenteil? Eine Welt, deren Entscheidungen von immer komplexeren Systemen intransparent getroffen werden, wo niemand mehr nachvollziehen oder bewerten und in Wahrheit verantworten kann, ob diese Entscheidungen sinnvoll sind? Denken wir beispielsweise an Modelle, die Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeiten von Straftätern bewerten. »Viele Menschen lächeln über altmodische Wahrsager. Doch sobald die Hellseher mit Computern arbeiten, nehmen wir ihre Vorhersagen ernst und sind bereit, für sie zu zahlen.« Zu welcher Welt bewegen wir uns hin? Zu einer, in der wir radikale Unsicherheit akzeptieren und entsprechen handeln, oder einer, wo wir uns immer mehr der Illusion von Kontrolle, Vorhersagbarkeit und Steuerbarkeit verlieren? »In einer Welt, in der Technik (vermeintlich) smart wird, brauchen wir vor allem eines, nämlich Menschen, die auch smart werden. Also Menschen, die mitdenken, die sich nicht zurücklehnen und konsumieren; die sich nicht auf das reduzieren lassen, was man ihnen empfiehlt.« Und zum Ende macht Prof. Gigerenzer noch den wichtigsten Aufruf der heutigen Zeit: Mitdenken! Denn es gilt: »The world is inherently uncertain and to pretend otherwise is to create risk, not to minimise it.«, Mervyn King Referenzen Andere Episoden Episode 121: Künstliche Unintelligenz Episode 118: Science and Decision Making under Uncertainty, A Conversation with Prof. John Ioannidis Episode 112: Nullius in Verba — oder: Der Müll der Wissenschaft Episode 109: Was ist Komplexität? Ein Gespräch mit Dr. Marco Wehr Episode 107: How to Organise Complex Societies? A Conversation with Johan Norberg Episode 106: Wissenschaft als Ersatzreligion? Ein Gespräch mit Manfred Glauninger Episode 99: Entkopplung, Kopplung, Rückkopplung Episode 92: Wissen und Expertise Teil 2 Episode 80: Wissen, Expertise und Prognose, eine Reflexion Episode 79: Escape from Model Land, a Conversation with Dr. Erica Thompson Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer Prof. Gigerenzer amd MPIB-Berlin Fachliche Referenzen Gerd Gigerenzer, Bauchentscheidungen: Die Intelligenz des Unbewussten und die Macht der Intuition, Goldmann (2008) Gerd Gigerenzer, Das Einmaleins der Skepsis: Über den richtigen Umgang mit Zahlen und Risiken, Piper (2015) Gerd Gigerenzer, Risiko: Wie man die richtigen Entscheidungen trifft, Pantheon (2020) Gerd Gigerenzer, Klick: Wie wir in einer digitalen Welt die Kontrolle behalten und die richtigen Entscheidungen treffen, Bertelsmann (2021) Gerd Gigerenzer, Smart Management: Mit einfachen Heuristiken gute Entscheidungen treffen, Campus (2025) Daniel Kahnemann, Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken, Siedler Verlag (2012) Gerd Gigerenzer, The rationally wars: a personal reflection, BPP (2024) Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Gerd Gigerenzer et al, Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?, International Journal of Forecasting (2022) Mervyn King, John Kay, Radical Uncertainty, Bridge Street Press (2021) Rory Sutherland, Alchemy, WH Allen (2021) Peter Kruse, next practice. Erfolgreiches Management von Instabilität. Veränderung durch Vernetzung, Gabal (2020) John P. Ioannidis, Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed, International Journal of Forecasting (2022)
Guest: John Trostel, DirectorFrom towering supercells to fast-moving derechos, severe storms are some of the most powerful and unpredictable forces in nature. Forecasting these storms requires cutting-edge technology, real-time data analysis, and years of research to improve early warning systems and save lives. That's where institutions like the Severe Storms Research Center at Georgia Tech come in. Today on Weather Geeks, we're diving into the groundbreaking work being done at SSRC—from tracking lightning patterns to developing new storm prediction models. We're thrilled to welcome John Trostel, the director of SSRC, to tell us all about it…Chapters00:00 Introduction to Severe Storms and SSRC03:10 The Role of Co-op Observers in Weather06:13 The Birth of the Severe Storms Research Center09:03 Understanding Severe Storms in the Southeast12:08 Innovative Radar Technology and Its Applications15:02 Lightning Mapping and Its Importance18:01 Microclimates and Their Impact on Weather20:54 Future Research Directions and Collaborations23:51 Distinguishing SSRC from Other Research Entities27:11 Vision for Future Storm Research TechnologySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
CMO Robin Page talks about how Rowan has disrupted the in-person piercing experience
In this episode of Corporate Treasury 101, we dive into the complex but essential world of commodity risk management with Olivier Kaczmarek, Partner at O2 Finance and a seasoned treasury consultant. We discuss how companies can identify, assess, and mitigate their exposure to commodity price fluctuations through both strategic planning and operational tools. From forecasting exposure and selecting the right systems to aligning strategy across procurement and finance, this episode sheds light on how corporates can proactively manage commodity volatility. We also discuss real-world examples like how Ryanair saved €1.4 billion through effective fuel hedging and why financial derivatives should be your last line of defense, not the first. Whether you're exposed to gas, metals, or oil, this discussion offers a clear roadmap for building a solid hedging framework that goes far beyond the treasury desk.Olivier Kaczmarek shares his proven approach for helping multinational companies mitigate commodity exposure. With over 20 years of experience in the field, Olivier explains how to identify implicit versus explicit risk, the importance of aligning your hedging strategy with market behavior, and what KPIs you should be tracking to measure success. From system implementation to pitching the project to the CFO, this episode is full of strategic and practical insights for modern treasury teams.What You'll Learn in This EpisodeThe four types of commodity risks: direct vs. indirect, explicit vs. implicitHow to forecast commodity exposure based on sales and production dataWhy financial hedging comes last in a complete risk management strategyReal-life examples of how companies like Ryanair use commodity hedgingCommon tools used in commodity risk management (SAP, FIS, Orchestrade)How to align strategy between procurement, finance, and treasuryBuilding internal awareness and pitching risk projects to the C-suiteKPI strategies to evaluate risk performance and decision-makingEpisode Breakdown & Timestamps [00:00] Introduction and AFP Partnership (Get $100 Off CTP Certification) [01:22] Why commodity risk is often overlooked in treasury [02:51] Forecasting energy, input, and production exposure [05:18] Using supplier price strategies and arbitrage [06:21] Understanding direct vs. indirect, explicit vs. implicit risk [10:57] How pricing strategies protect brands from volatility [13:06] Ryanair's €1.4B gain from fuel hedging [14:16] Strategic hedging vs. following the competition [15:24] Tools and software used for commodity risk [17:09] Hedging vs. operational decisions: which comes first [19:14] Building your strategy from the ground up [21:52] When financial derivatives are the right move [24:30] Operational ideas: integration, re-engineering, 3R model [26:36] KPIs, the monkey benchmark, and measuring value [28:12] Pitching a risk project to the CFO [30:27] Who should own commodity risk management[31:31] Where to learn more about O2 Finance and OlivierFollow our guest, Olivier Kaczmarek:Website: https://www.o2finance.be/ LinkedIn:
Or maybe 2028, it's complicated In 2021, a researcher named Daniel Kokotajlo published a blog post called “What 2026 Looks Like”, where he laid out what he thought would happen in AI over the next five years. The world delights in thwarting would-be prophets. The sea of possibilities is too vast for anyone to ever really chart a course. At best, we vaguely gesture at broad categories of outcome, then beg our listeners to forgive us the inevitable surprises. Daniel knew all this and resigned himself to it. But even he didn't expect what happened next. He got it all right. Okay, not literally all. The US restricted chip exports to China in late 2022, not mid-2024. AI first beat humans at Diplomacy in late 2022, not 2025. And of course the mid-2025 to 2026 period remains to be seen. But to put its errors in context, Daniel's document was written two years before ChatGPT existed. Nobody except researchers and a few hobbyists had ever talked to an AI. In fact, talking to AI was a misnomer. There was no way to make them continue the conversation; they would free associate based on your prompt, maybe turning it into a paragraph-length short story. If you pulled out all the stops, you could make an AI add single digit numbers and get the right answer more than 50% of the time. Yet if you read Daniel's blog post without checking the publication date, you could be forgiven for thinking it was a somewhat garbled but basically reasonable history of the last four years. I wasn't the only one who noticed. A year later, OpenAI hired Daniel to their policy team. While he worked for them, he was limited in his ability to speculate publicly. “What 2026 Looks Like” promised a sequel about 2027 and beyond, but it never materialized. Unluckily for Sam Altman but luckily for the rest of us, Daniel broke with OpenAI mid-2024 in a dramatic split covered by the New York Times and others. He founded the AI Futures Project to produce the promised sequel, including: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND's Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an adversarial attack framework for language models. Jonas Vollmer, a VC at Macroscopic Ventures, which has done its own, more practical form of successful AI forecasting: they made an early stage investment in Anthropic, now worth $60 billion. Thomas Larsen, the former executive director of the Center for AI Policy, a group which advises policymakers on both sides of the aisle. Romeo Dean, a leader of Harvard's AI Safety Student Team and budding expert in AI hardware. …and me! Since October, I've been volunteering part-time, doing some writing and publicity work. I can't take credit for the forecast itself - or even for the lion's share of the writing and publicity - but it's been an immense privilege to work alongside some of the smartest and most epistemically virtuous people I know, trying to absorb their worldview on a level deep enough to do it justice. We have no illusions that we'll get as lucky as last time, but we still think it's a valuable contribution to the discussion. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027 https://ai-2027.com/
U of I researcher coins ‘thirstwaves' as new framework emphasizing prolonged, extreme water stressors.
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2025. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12755Date of first use: April, 2025
Real-Time Forecasting Faceoff: Time Series vs. DNNs // MLOps Podcast #305 with Josh Xi, Data Scientist at Lyft.Join the Community: https://go.mlops.community/YTJoinIn Get the newsletter: https://go.mlops.community/YTNewsletter // AbstractIn real-time forecasting (e.g. geohash level demand and supply forecast for an entire region), time series-based forecasting methods are widely adopted due to their simplicity and ease of training. This discussion explores how Lyft uses time series forecasting to respond to real-time market dynamics, covering practical tips and tricks for implementing these methods, an in-depth look at their adaptability for online re-training, and discussions on their interpretability and user intervention capabilities. By examining these topics, listeners will understand how time series forecasting can outperform DNNs, and how to effectively use time series forecasting for dynamic market conditions and decision-making applications.// BioJosh is a data scientist from the Marketplace team at Lyft, working on forecasting and modeling of marketplace signals that power products like pricing and driver incentives. Josh got his PHD in Operations Research in 2013, with minors in Statistics and Economics. Prior to joining Lyft, he worked as a research scientist in the Operations Research Lab at General Motors, focusing on optimization, simulation and forecasting modeling related to vehicle manufacturing, supply chain and car sharing systems.// Related LinksWebsite: https://www.lyft.com/~~~~~~~~ ✌️Connect With Us ✌️ ~~~~~~~Catch all episodes, blogs, newsletters, and more: https://go.mlops.community/TYExploreJoin our slack community [https://go.mlops.community/slack]Follow us on X/Twitter [@mlopscommunity](https://x.com/mlopscommunity) or [LinkedIn](https://go.mlops.community/linkedin)] Sign up for the next meetup: [https://go.mlops.community/register]MLOps Swag/Merch: [https://shop.mlops.community/]Connect with Demetrios on LinkedIn: /dpbrinkmConnect with Josh on LinkedIn: /joshxiaominxi
Ever wonder how to maneuver the tricky world of family-owned landscaping businesses? Join us as we dive into the captivating journey of Jake Malone from Malone's Landscaping, exploring how second-generation leadership can evolve a company while overcoming the challenges of family dynamics. Discover how Jake and his team have mastered the art of maintaining high-quality installations, leveraging innovative management systems, and expanding into new branches without losing their unique company culture. Whether you're dealing with family business dynamics or considering expansion, this episode is packed with actionable insights and inspiration. THE BIG IDEA: Trust the process and keep progressing forward. KEY MOMENTS: [04:25] Family Dynamics and Business Mentorship [08:10] Streamlining Process and Accountability [10:52] Quality Service with Strong Communication [15:22] Seasonal Staff Redistribution Strategy [16:21] "Maintaining Family Business Culture" [22:00] "End-of-Month Momentum Strategy" [23:49] Optimizing Operations with Forecasting [28:10] "Lessons from Difficult Clients" [31:34] Embrace Pain for Rare Success QUESTIONS WE ANSWER How can family dynamics impact a family-owned business? What are the benefits of implementing a strong business process in landscaping? How do you maintain quality standards in a landscaping business as it grows? What is the role of sports in developing work ethic and teamwork? How do you handle the transition of a family business to the next generation? What are the challenges of opening a new branch for an existing business?
Join CXR's Chris Hoyt (he/him) as he connects with Nicole Delue of Frontline Recruiting at Echostar about quality of hire and the impact of high-volume forecasting.
In this episode, I talk about carefully managing when and where you say no. The Forest School Podcast: Episode 209 - Forecasting' or being ‘Triggered'? How do you react to uncomfortable play? -https://open.spotify.com/episode/37b4i8H1STybgbjKTLs9rg?si=cfa40be284c340d2The Bracken Outdoors Podcast is designed for Woodland Leaders from bushcraft instructors to Forest School practitioners, helping you build a life in the great outdoors. With weekly short episodes on all aspects of life as a freelance Woodland Leader, from business tips and advice to philosophy of outdoor education, as well as monthly deep dives into larger topics or interviews with inspirational professionals and leaders in the outdoor education space.Take the struggle out of setting up tarps with the Essential Tarps and Knots Course for Forest School Leaders, find out more at: https://brackenoutdoors.com/essentialtarpsFree Resources: + How to choose a tarp guide+ Forest School Activity Ideas PDF + The complete guide to setting your rates as an outdoor leaderTo find out more about my mission to help people Belong Outside, head to https://brackenoutdoors.com/
In this episode, Chad and Patrick discuss the current state of the economy, focusing on market uncertainty and the challenges faced by city managers in forecasting sales tax revenues. They explore the importance of data-driven decision-making and the use of leading indicators to understand consumer behavior. The conversation reflects on past economic crises and emphasizes the need for caution in navigating current economic challenges, advocating for a measured approach to decision-making during uncertain times.00:00 - Market Uncertainty and Economic Indicators07:28 - Forecasting Sales Tax in Uncertain Times16:38 - Probabilistic Approaches to Budgeting23:39 - Leveraging Data Science for Economic Predictions25:02 - Analyzing Consumer Sentiment and Sales Tax Predictions30:15 - Historical Context: Lessons from Past Economic Downturns33:35 - Navigating Current Economic Uncertainty38:18 - Making Informed Decisions in Times of Crisis41:37 - Finding Balance: Optimism vs. Pessimism in City Management
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2025. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12753Date of first use: April 2025
Emergency response experts say that funding and staff cuts at the National Weather Service could mean less reliable weather forecast. And, babies like music, but they generally have preferences. A music therapist reveals the best kinds of music to soothe a baby.Forecasting Cuts Leave Some Worried For Hurricane SeasonMany in Georgia are still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Helene last fall.Now, firings and funding cuts at the National Weather Service and other agencies have some experts worried about accurate forecasts heading into the next hurricane season, which begins June 1.Hundreds of workers have been fired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, including meteorologists at the Weather Service. More cuts by the Trump administration are reportedly on the way.“The forecast is not going to be as accurate because it won't have as much information in it,” said Chuck Watson of ENKI research in Savannah, who studies disaster preparedness and response.Read the whole story at sciencefriday.com.Tips For Soothing Your Baby With Music, From A Music TherapistIf you're a parent, you've probably heard that playing music is good for your baby's brain development. But that's where many people's knowledge about the subject ends. What about music is good for a baby's development? Will queuing up a lullaby playlist get the job done? And how can you tell if it's all just too much for them?Sarah Nolan, a board-certified music therapist and neonatal intensive care unit music therapist in Children's Hospital Los Angeles' Mark Taper and Johnny Mercer Artists Program recently published recommendations on the best ways to play music around your baby.Host Ira Flatow talks to Nolan about the ideal length of time to play music, what kinds of music are best, and the benefits of music therapy to babies and adults alike.Transcripts for each segment will be available after the show airs on sciencefriday.com. Subscribe to this podcast. Plus, to stay updated on all things science, sign up for Science Friday's newsletters.
We bring back an underserved part of the Amazon space, Vendor Central! We have Betsy Mello with Midnight Group on to talk through selling large and heavy products to Amazon 1P along with Direct Import and Forecasting! Fun to talk about 1P selling on Amazon for a change. Always Off Brand is Ecommerce Simplified, Learn & Laugh! Guest: Betsy Mello LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/betsymello/ FEEDSPOT TOP 10 Retail Podcast! https://podcast.feedspot.com/retail_podcasts/?feedid=5770554&_src=f2_featured_email QUICKFIRE Info: Website: https://www.quickfirenow.com/ Email the Show: info@quickfirenow.com Talk to us on Social: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/quickfireproductions Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/quickfire__/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@quickfiremarketing LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/company/quickfire-productions-llc/about/ Sports podcast Scott has been doing since 2017, Scott & Tim Sports Show part of Somethin About Nothin: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/somethin-about-nothin/id1306950451 HOSTS: Summer Jubelirer has been in digital commerce and marketing for over 17 years. After spending many years working for digital and ecommerce agencies working with multi-million dollar brands and running teams of Account Managers, she is now the Amazon Manager at OLLY PBC. LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/summerjubelirer/ Scott Ohsman has been working with brands for over 30 years in retail, online and has launched over 200 brands on Amazon. Mr. Ohsman has been managing brands on Amazon for 19yrs. Owning his own sales and marketing agency in the Pacific NW, is now VP of Digital Commerce for Quickfire LLC. Producer and Co-Host for the top 5 retail podcast, Always Off Brand. He also produces the Brain Driven Brands Podcast featuring leading Consumer Behaviorist Sarah Levinger. Scott has been a featured speaker at national trade shows and has developed distribution strategies for many top brands. LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-ohsman-861196a6/ Hayley Brucker has been working in retail and with Amazon for years. Hayley has extensive experience in digital advertising, both seller and vendor central on Amazon.Hayley is the Director of Ecommerce at Camco Manufacturing and is responsible for their very substantial Amazon business. Hayley lives in North Carolina. LinkedIn -https://www.linkedin.com/in/hayley-brucker-1945bb229/ Huge thanks to Cytrus our show theme music “Office Party” available wherever you get your music. Check them out here: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/cytrusmusic Instagram https://www.instagram.com/cytrusmusic/ Twitter https://twitter.com/cytrusmusic SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/artist/6VrNLN6Thj1iUMsiL4Yt5q?si=MeRsjqYfQiafl0f021kHwg APPLE MUSIC https://music.apple.com/us/artist/cytrus/1462321449 “Always Off Brand” is part of the Quickfire Podcast Network and produced by Quickfire LLC.
Scott and Daniel break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion.Scott Alexander is author of the highly influential blogs Slate Star Codex and Astral Codex Ten. Daniel Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in 2024, rejecting a non-disparagement clause and risking millions in equity to speak out about AI safety.We discuss misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas researching AI progress.I came in skeptical, but I learned a tremendous amount by bouncing my objections off of them. I highly recommend checking out their new scenario planning document, AI 2027Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------Sponsors* WorkOS helps today's top AI companies get enterprise-ready. OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Anthropic and hundreds more use WorkOS to quickly integrate features required by enterprise buyers. To learn more about how you can make the leap to enterprise, visit workos.com* Jane Street likes to know what's going on inside the neural nets they use. They just released a black-box challenge for Dwarkesh listeners, and I had blast trying it out. See if you have the skills to crack it at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Scale's Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you're an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale's Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkeshTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.----------Timestamps(00:00:00) - AI 2027(00:06:56) - Forecasting 2025 and 2026(00:14:41) - Why LLMs aren't making discoveries(00:24:33) - Debating intelligence explosion(00:49:45) - Can superintelligence actually transform science?(01:16:54) - Cultural evolution vs superintelligence(01:24:05) - Mid-2027 branch point(01:32:30) - Race with China(01:44:47) - Nationalization vs private anarchy(02:03:22) - Misalignment(02:14:52) - UBI, AI advisors, & human future(02:23:00) - Factory farming for digital minds(02:26:52) - Daniel leaving OpenAI(02:35:15) - Scott's blogging advice Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
We explore the science of "hedonic forecasting"—our often-flawed ability to predict future happiness—and share strategies to make better life decisions. We debate the right approach to a “task cascade.” Plus, as part of #Read25in25, we discuss hacks for doing more reading. Finally, an answer to the burning question: What will my family name our new dog? Resources & Links Related to this episode: Order your copy of Secrets of Adulthood Join me on book tour starting April 1, 2025 Read 25 in 25 Elizabeth is reading: The Spy Coast by Tess Gerritsen (Amazon, Bookshop) Gretchen is reading: Sun City by Tove Jansson (Amazon, Bookshop) Get in touch: podcast@gretchenrubin.com Visit Gretchen's website to learn more about Gretchen's best-selling books, products from The Happiness Project Collection, and the Happier app. Find the transcript for this episode on the episode details page in the Apple Podcasts app. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
CMO Andrew Katz on expanding availability and withstanding new competition
In this episode of the Private Equity Funcast, host Ryan Milligan speaks with OpenBrand CEO Greg Munves and Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin about their innovative approach to tracking inflation through the OpenBrand Consumer Price Index for Durable and Personal Goods (CPI-DPG). The CPI-DPG is updated weekly, providing a third independent data point for measuring inflation. Its accuracy has been validated with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as low as 1.6% in specific categories. Additionally, OpenBrand offers scenario-based inflation forecasts, enabling companies and investors to tailor predictions to their expectations and market views. Munves and McLaughlin also outline practical use cases: • Manufacturers and retailers optimizing their pricing and promotional strategies. • Investors seeking early insights on market inflation trends to refine financial models. • Policymakers evaluating the effects of economic policies. Video Version
DisclosuresThese views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.Investing involves risk and principal loss is possible.Past performance does not guarantee future performance.Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type.The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity.Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be completely removed. They do no not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.Investments that are allocated across multiple types of securities may be exposed to a variety of risks based on the asset classes, investment styles, market sectors, and size of companies preferred by the investment managers. Investors should consider how the combined risks impact their total investment portfolio and understand that different risks can lead to varying financial consequences, including loss of principal. Please see a prospectus for further details.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Copyright © Russell Investments Group LLC 2025. All rights reserved.This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.CORP-12747date of first use: March 2025
In this episode of Corporate Finance Explained, we explore the strategic power of Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) in driving business success. From dynamic budgeting to data-driven forecasting and insightful financial analysis, we break down the key pillars of a high-impact FP&A function. Learn how top FP&A teams align financial strategy with execution, leverage real-time data, and integrate technology for smarter decision-making. Plus, discover why agility and continuous learning are critical for finance professionals aiming to stay ahead.Listen now to gain a competitive edge in FP&A!
In this episode of the STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane, the Chief Economist at AirDNA, is joined by Bram Gallagher, Director of Economic and Forecasting at AirDNA, to discuss current economic uncertainties and their potential impact on the lodging industry. They delve into the new presidential administration and recent fluctuations in the stock market, which have introduced significant uncertainty. Despite strong fundamentals in unemployment rates and GDP growth, consumer sentiment and the economic policy uncertainty index show signs of concern, with the latter reaching its highest level since COVID-19. A notable topic is the influence of tariffs, including their imposition and the ensuing trade wars impacting international travel. Canadian travel to the U.S. has notably decreased, with several flight routes canceled, significantly affecting markets with high Canadian tourist reliance. Additionally, stock market volatility influences consumer spending through the wealth effect, potentially curbing leisure travel plans. The discussion also covers sectors like business travel, where cuts and price sensitivity have emerged. The participants conclude that current data still supports strong economic performance, but the downside risks necessitate vigilance over future metrics and trends. Concerns such as tariff impacts, inflation, and travel behavior shifts underscore the importance for lodging operators to stay informed and adaptable in their strategies. You don't want to miss this episode! ~~~~ Signup for AirDNA for FREE
Economist, financial expert, and bestselling author Dr. Nomi Prins sits down with James Connor and dives deep into the economic storm clouds she sees gathering over Wall Street and Main Street alike. With Wall Street sitting on a “hidden” $620 billion ticking time bomb of loan losses (levels not seen since 2008), the risks of another banking crisis are mounting. Nomi explains why persistent inflation, record consumer debt, and tariff uncertainties are increasing the threat of a consumer recession, putting the economy at significant risk of stagflation. She reveals how the Fed's next moves, with potentially deeper interest rate cuts, could reshape markets dramatically. You'll also hear from her about major geopolitical shifts, including Europe's surging defense spending amid ongoing global tensions, and why central banks (particularly China) are rapidly diversifying from U.S. Treasuries into gold, likely pushing gold prices significantly higher. Chapters: 0:58 - Fed Meeting Insights: Growth and Inflation Shifts 3:43 - Economic Slowdown: Warning Signs Unveiled 6:11 - Consumer Crisis: The Reality Behind Spending Declines 11:44 - Wall Street Banking on the Edge 17:00 - Could Another Silicon Valley Crisis Unfold? 18:18 - Recession or Reset? Forecasting 2025's Economy 21:31 - Deficit Dilemma: The Burden of Ballooning Debt 24:47 - Europe's Defense Surge: A New Global Shift 28:52 - Market Moves: S& P500 and European Equities in Focus 34:17 - Gold's Rising Power: Insights from the Austrian Mint 37:27 - China's Pivot: From US Treasuries to Gold We want to hear from you! What would you like to see more of on Wealthion? Please take our poll here: https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxtJvEEM4j_eRy7iT---EJ_mbkp1En1P0O Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3Xz3ihq Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #WallStreet #Recession #Stagflation #EconomicCrisis #Gold #Inflation #BankingCrisis #FederalReserve #NomiPrins #Economy #MarketCrash #FinancialNews #StockMarket #ProtectYourWealth #DebtCrisis #FinancialEducation #Stocks #FinancialFreedom #InvestmentStrategy #InterestRates #Markets ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Get practical answers to questions COOs are asking—about SOPs, staffing ahead of growth, and managing disengaged employees. In this Q&A episode of The Right-Hand Roadmap, Megan Long tackles real-world questions from second-in-command leaders navigating fast growth, resource constraints, and team dynamics. Whether you're wondering when to systematize your startup, how to staff for a 30% growth forecast, or what to do with employees who are just clocking in and out, this episode has guidance you can apply immediately. Megan draws on years of experience working inside and alongside founder-led businesses to help you set smart priorities and avoid common missteps. You'll hear all about: 00:00 – Introduction to the Q&A format and how to submit your own questions 01:47 – Q1: Prioritizing SOPs and processes at an early-stage company with ambitious growth goals 02:11 – Why sales and marketing systems must come before internal process-building 03:10 – Strategic planning example: focusing on partnerships and lead gen over documentation 04:08 – A warning: 300% growth will break your current systems—so build flexibly 05:08 – Story: Megan's mistake of over-documenting accounting procedures too early 06:47 – Challenge your CEO on whether SOPs are the most urgent need right now 07:08 – Q2: Should you staff up in anticipation of growth or wait until overwhelmed? 08:16 – The cultural and operational risks of premature hiring 08:46 – Megan's rule of thumb: distinguish between proven vs. unproven growth 09:04 – Second First benchmarking data: turnover and revenue trends across members 10:07 – Forecasting in the post-2020 era: why historical data can be misleading Rate, review & follow on Apple Podcasts Click Here to Listen! OR WATCH ON YOUTUBE If you haven't already done so, follow the podcast to make sure you never miss a value-packed episode. Links mentioned in the episode: Second First Membership Second First One-on-One Coaching Second First on Instagram Second First on LinkedIn Megan Long on LinkedIn
The Low-Tech Forecasting Tool Making a Comeback.. and your questions answered! Looking for information about Louisville and Southern Indiana Real Estate? You found it!!! Lots of great information, loaded with Real Estate Questions and answers! What's happening to Real Estate? Buyer or Seller? Love Real Estate? You can listen to our latest Radio Show here! Stay up to date on Louisville, KY Real Estate. Also, check out www.louisvillequestions.com. Be sure to listen to our Louisville Real Estate Show on 840 WHAS Sunday morning from 8:30-9:00 am! Have a question for our team of experts? Call (502) 252-1890 or (502) 376-5483 to leave a question. For more information about Louisville Real Estate or to work with the hardest working Real Estate Team in Kentucky “The Sokoler Team" at REMAX Properties East, 10525 Timberwood Circle, Louisville KY 40223 head to www.WeSellLouisville.com. email bob@WeSellLouisville.com or call (502) 376-5483.
Today's podcast discussion centers on the importance of situational awareness and forecasting potential problems. Eric and his friends share personal anecdotes illustrating how a lack of awareness can lead to negative consequences, ranging from inconvenient mishaps like getting stuck to more serious safety concerns. They explore the differences in personality and how those influence preparedness and risk assessment. The conversation also touches on the value of learning from past experiences and proactively training oneself and others to anticipate challenges. Ultimately, they emphasize the need to think ahead and learn from both successes and failures to improve decision-making in various aspects of life. Key Takeaways: Actively practice situational awareness by paying attention to your surroundings and potential risks before acting. Make it a habit to forecast potential consequences of your actions to avoid getting into difficult situations. View challenging experiences as learning opportunities to improve your awareness and future decision-making. Strive to be prepared for unexpected events by having necessary tools and a proactive mindset. Consider seeking input from others and understanding different perspectives to enhance your overall awareness and problem-solving skills. Links to resources: Contractor Sales Secrets: ContractorSalesSecrets.com Water Garden Expo 2025: WGExpo.com The All American Koi Show: AllAmericanKoiShow.com Fitz Fish Ponds: Koi Trips Book A Call With Triplett: Call with Triplett The Pond Digger: https://theponddigger.com/ LA Pet Fair: https://www.lapetfair.com/ Atlantic-Oase: https://www.atlantic-oase.com/ You can also check out The Pond Digger's products at: http://helixpondfiltration.com/ TWT Contractor Circle TWT Contractor Power Circle And follow his adventures in the pond world at: Instagram Facebook TikTok
CMO Paul Nugent talks about new initiatives including a campaign with Sydney Sweeney
In this episode, CJ is joined by Peter Benevides, CFO of Olo, a leading vertical SaaS company powering digital ordering, payments, and guest engagement solutions for popular restaurant brands. Peter explains how Olo successfully expanded into payments and used this as a strategic advantage. He breaks down how the company stacks S-curves through continued product expansion and adoption, and how this enables them to increase revenue without increasing the take-rate. The conversation also covers pricing strategy and how Olo balances subscription and consumption-based models. Peter also sheds light on what it's like selling into franchise businesses and lessons learned from other vertical SaaS companies like Veeva.If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get a customized KPI checklist.—SPONSORS:NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning.RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. Whether it's multi-element arrangements, subscription renewals, or complex usage-based contracts, RightRev takes care of it all. That means fewer spreadsheets, fewer errors, and more time for your team to focus on growth. For modern revenue recognition simplified, visit rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Brex makes it easy to control spend before it happens, automate annoying tasks, and optimize your finances. Find out how Brex can help you make every dollar count at brex.com/metrics.Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. It doesn't just show you where the problems are—it helps you solve them. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities, like duplicative spend, to automating those painful procurement workflows, to giving you the best market data that turns every vendor negotiation in your favor. Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how—FOLLOW US ON X:@cjgustafson222 (CJ)—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(01:53) Sponsor – NetSuite | RightRev | Planful(05:24) An Introduction to Olo(08:34) Reaching Larger and Smaller Enterprises(10:34) The Focus on Guest-Facing Technology(13:22) The Evolution of Payments at Olo(16:38) Sponsor – Brex | Vanta | Tropic(20:33) The Card-Not-Present Offering and Fraud(23:50) Knowing Who Your Guest Is and Olo's Extended Value Prop(32:04) Stacking S-Curves(33:30) Increasing Revenue Without Increasing the Take-Rate(36:27) How the Payments Module Makes Other Products Stickier(37:39) Advice to CFOs Looking to Add Payments(39:11) Pricing Subscription and Consumption-Based Products(42:35) Forecasting and the Predictability of This Model(44:43) Vertical Software Company Case Study: Veeva(49:06) Working with Franchises(53:42) Long-Ass Lightning Round: Planning for the Future(56:16) Advice to Younger Self(58:48) Finance Software Stack(59:24) Craziest Expense Story Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe
Should you use a Cycle Time Scatterplot of Epics or a Monte Carlo simulation of stories to figure out when an Epic would be done? Daniel Vacanti and Prateek Singh discuss this in the latest episode of #DrunkAgile.
MORE STAFFINGRecruit, onboard, and train incredible virtual professionals in the Philippines with my friends at More Staffing by visiting https://morestaffing.co/af. ADMISSIONGet the best media buying training on the Internet + a free coaching call with Common Thread Collective's media buyers when you sign up for ADmission here: https://www.youradmission.co/andrew-faris-podcast//SUBSCRIBE TO MY CHANNEL FOR 2X WEEKLY UPLOADS!FOLLOW UP WITH ANDREW X: https://x.com/andrewjfaris Email: podcast@ajfgrowth.comWork with Andrew: https://ajfgrowth.com
CEO and Principal Analyst at Amalgam Insights, Hyoun Park helps CIOs & CFOs create the ROI and strategic business cases for better AI and IT FinOps. He is also host of the weekly podcast, This Week in Enterprise Tech. In this episode Hyoun discusses some of the quick AI wins for finance departments. My journey Starting as a CRM administrator to analyst Cloud spend getting out of control (unexpected cloud bills for $20m!) AI use cases: invoices, contracts, billing and spending contracts (dealing with 1000 software contracts) and reconciliations Agentic AI and uses in Finance Zero based budgeting and Forecasting in the AI age ROI for AI investment People who will lose their jobs in AI in finance vs those who will survive My futurist prediction Connect with Hyoun on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hyounpark/ Host of weekly podcast, This week in Enterprise Tech: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2319034 http://www.amalgaminsights.com/
Guests: John Banghoff, Jonathan Guseman, Jase BernhardtWe've all seen it. A multi-car pile-up accident that seems unstoppable. One weather phenomenon is often at the root of these - snow qualls. These aren't your typical snow flurries; they can bring sudden, near-zero visibility and treacherous driving conditions in a matter of minutes. We're joined today by 3 meteorologists with snow squall experience: John Banghoff, and Jonathan Guseman from NWS State College and Dr. Jase Bernhardt, Associate Professor at Hofstra University. We'll explore the science behind these intense bursts of weather, why traditional winter warnings often fall short, and the critical steps being taken to better communicate the dangers. This is a deep dive into the evolving world of snow squall warnings.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Snow Squalls and Their Impact04:51 The Evolution of Snow Squall Warnings10:02 Challenges in Communicating Snow Squall Warnings15:06 Understanding Snow Squall Warnings and Their Importance20:05 Forecasting Snow Squalls: Techniques and Challenges22:22 Challenges in Forecasting Snow Squalls24:37 Understanding Snow Squalls vs. Blizzards26:41 Vulnerability on Highways During Snow Squalls28:16 The Importance of Road Temperature Data29:12 Communicating the Risks of Snow Squalls33:46 Future of Snow Squall Warnings38:20 Advancements in Weather Forecasting Technology43:49 Climate Change and Its Impact on SnowstormsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Rachael Zaluzec, VW of America's senior vice president of customer experience and brand marketing, discusses VW's SNL partnership, integration marketing and customer service and how the brand is approaching EV marketing.
Our guest for this episode is Philip Stubbs, partner at Atlantic Insight. Philip brings a unique blend of academic rigor and hands on know how, which he has honed over years of delivering major performance improvements for contact centers, back-office, and field operations. In addition to having led high-impact teams at organisations like British Gas and JD Williams, Philip has also expanded into machine learning and Python based forecasting, and we discuss in this episode how modern data science can solve long standing Workforce Management challenges
What sort of building inspections are required in Europe before a building is taken down? As someone new to tech startups, what were the lessons learned from building the Airbnb for boat holidays from the ground up? What did participating in Antler's startup accelerator program lead to for Ieva? How does circularity in construction prolong the life of a material and prevent it from entering a dump? What are the factors driving the recent surge in interest in circular construction? How is Material Mapper leveraging big data to bring forecasting capabilities to circular construction? Why have traditional construction reuse marketplaces failed to scale in Europe? Why have construction material producers emerged as the first large scale adopters of Material Mapper? How are municipalities leveraging the Material Mapper platform? What new European regulations are being introduced which will drive future opportunities for Material Mapper? Why is Dubai running out of sand needed for new construction and where is it now importing it from?Ieva Sibilla Strupule - CEO and co-founder of Material Mapper, joins Proptech Espresso to answer these questions and discuss how her mom's background in architectural investigation coupled with her childhood spent conducting treasure hunts while inspecting historical buildings led to a deep appreciation for the built environment and a desire to preserve the materials used to construct it.
In this episode of ReedFlections, co-host Art Calderon sits down with host Reed Nyffeler, CEO of a global franchising security company, to discuss the importance of envisioning a future state in effective leadership. Reed explains how leaders can inspire their teams by clearly communicating the benefits and experiences of achieving future goals, rather than focusing solely on the work required to get there. Using practical examples from large projects like Omaha's airport remodeling and historical endeavors like Mount Rushmore, Reed emphasizes the necessity of clear, repetitive communication and simplified messaging. The conversation dives deep into the processes of forecasting, preparing, and being aware, offering actionable steps for leaders to turn dreams into reality and ensure lasting progress. Tune in to learn how to maintain focus on long-term objectives amidst the urgency of daily tasks. Highlights Understanding Future State in Leadership.The Importance of Clear Communication.Forecasting and Preparing for Future State.Adapting to Unforeseen Challenges.Maintaining Consistency and Routine.Patience and Long-Term Vision.
In this episode, we sit down with Rami Krispin, a data scientist at Apple and active producer in forecasting, to explore his journey into forecasting and data science. He shares what first sparked his interest in the field and how that passion led him to develop key contributions, including the Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R book and the TSstudio package. We discuss his motivation for writing the book, who it's for, and how TSstudio and other R packages he has developed have helped practitioners in the forecasting space. He also gives us a sneak peek into his upcoming book, Applied Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with R, and the new topics it will cover.We then dive into the challenges of deploying forecasting models at scale and the role of MLOps in making machine learning projects production-ready. As a Docker Captain, our guest explains how Docker has changed his approach to time series forecasting and MLOps. We also discuss best practices for forecasting, common mistakes practitioners make, and strategies for improving reproducibility. Looking ahead, we talk about where time series forecasting is heading, the differences between R, Julia, and Python in this space, and how each ecosystem serves different needs. You can follow his work on LinkedIn, subscribe to his newsletter, and stay updated on his latest projects.Website: https://linktr.ee/ramikrispinLinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rami-krispin/
Montrose Regional Airport is more than just a gateway—it’s a major economic engine for the region. A new report from the Colorado Department of Aviation highlights its growing impact, from job creation to increased tourism and business activity. We’ll break down the numbers and explore how recent expansions are shaping the airport’s future. Then, we shift gears to the mountains with meteorologist and OpenSnow founder Joel Gratz. If you’ve ever chased the perfect powder day, chances are you’ve seen his forecasts. We’ll talk about how he built OpenSnow, the science behind precision ski predictions, and what changing weather patterns mean for the future of skiing.Support the show: https://www.montrosepress.com/site/forms/subscription_services/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How can school leaders prepare for the challenges of tomorrow while making informed decisions today? In this episode of Aspire to Lead, Dr. Richard Bernato, author of Co-Creating the Future, shares groundbreaking insights on futures-based leadership and how simulations can help leaders experiment with change in a low-risk environment.We explore the power of futuring in leadership, how simulation design can enhance professional and academic development, and what it means to lead from the top of the learning triangle—shaping not just the emerging future, but a preferable future. Dr. Bernato also walks us through the seven phases of a leadership simulation, demonstrating how school and district leaders can proactively plan for success.Whether you're navigating change, looking to refine your leadership skills, or searching for innovative ways to prepare your team for the future, this conversation is packed with practical strategies you won't want to miss!About Dr. Richard Bernato:Currently serving as an adjunct professor specializing in educational leadership within doctoral and professional certificate programs, Richard Bernato, EdD, wears multiple hats as an education expert, author, podcaster, and blogger. With 55 years of experience in the field of education, his journey encompasses higher education, extensive research, numerous leadership positions in K–12 settings, and consultancy work alongside presentations for various school districts. Additionally, Dr. Bernato is the editor-in-chief of the Journal for Leadership and Instruction, a peer-reviewed publication under SCOPE. https://www.scopeonline.us/publications/Follow Dr. Richard Bernato:Twitter (X): @richDis48Instagram: rbernato_simulation_educatorFacebook: www.facebook.com/richard.bernato.3 Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/richard-bernato-1658854 —#1 New Release, "The Language of Behavior" is NOW Available! https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DVT32KQ1?&linkCode=ll1&tag=aspirewebsite-20&linkId=d18e5a44a6582a22d15ee23193af7bb8&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl The Language of Behavior is an essential guide for school leaders committed to transforming their school culture and addressing student behavior through a more compassionate, effective approach. Drawing on their extensive experience in education, Charle Peck and Joshua Stamper challenge outdated disciplinary practices and offer a clear, trauma-informed framework that empowers educators to interpret student behavior as a form of communication. Through three core tenets—Consider the Environment, Explore the Root Causes of Behavior, and Respond with Intentionality—this book equips leaders with actionable strategies to foster positive behavior, build stronger relationships, and cultivate a more supportive school climate.Packed with real-world case studies, evidence-based practices, and insights into the lasting effects of childhood trauma, The Language of Behavior provides school leaders with the tools to create lasting, meaningful change. It offers a roadmap to reduce behavior issues, re-engage students and staff, and establish a culture of accountability and empathy. This book is not just a reference—it's a call to lead with vision and transform how we approach discipline, ensuring every student has the opportunity to...
In this milestone episode, Sam, Asad, and AJ reflect on how they've grown as leaders, how their perspectives have evolved, and what lessons they've learned along the way. We discuss the increasing difficulty of leadership in volatile times and why mental resilience is more critical than ever. From the exhaustion of constant adaptation to the importance of maintaining optimism, we explore the realities of leading through uncertainty and why community—rather than isolation—is the key to enduring these challenges. Thank you for being a listener. Thank you to everyone who has supported Topline on the way to our 100th. Want more content from Pavilion? New episodes of Topline drop every Sunday with new Topline Spotlight mini-episodes every Thursday. Subscribe to never miss an episode. Stay ahead with the latest industry developments, emerging go-to-market trends, and valuable benchmarking data. Subscribe to Topline Newsletter for GTM insights from Asad Zaman every Thursday. Tune into The Revenue Leadership Podcast with Kyle Norton every Wednesday. He dives deep into the strategies and tactics that drive success as a revenue leader, featuring real operators like Jason Lemkins of SaaStr, Stevie Case of Vanta, and Ron Gabrisko of Databricks. Your're invited! Join the free Topline Slack channel to connect with 600+ revenue leaders, share insights, and keep the conversation going beyond the podcast! Key Chapters: (00:00) - Celebrating 100 Episodes (03:00) - Reflections on Longevity and Health (05:46) - Navigating Economic Volatility (09:03) - Mental Health and Leadership (11:49) - Lessons from the Past Episodes (15:07) - The Impact of External Factors on Business (18:00) - The Role of Community in Times of Change (20:47) - Communication Strategies in Uncertain Times (23:49) - Embracing Individuality in Business (27:06) - Forecasting in a Volatile Environment (35:16) - Navigating Personal Health Amid Market Volatility (38:08) - The Outlook for 2025 and 2026 (41:52) - Investment Opportunities in Times of Crisis (44:34) - The Importance of Community and Connection (50:25) - Personal Growth and Leadership Evolution (01:01:59) - Memorable Conversations and Reflections
In this episode of FP&A Tomorrow, host Paul Barnhurst (The FP&A Guy) sits down with Jeff Casale and Rich Wagner to explore the role of Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A). They discuss how AI, external data, and continuous planning are transforming the industry, making FP&A a more strategic function. The conversation covers the power of AI-driven forecasting and how businesses can leverage external economic indicators to gain a competitive edge.Jeff Casale is the CEO of Board, a leading FP&A software company. With previous leadership roles at MarkLogic, Dell Technologies, VMware, and EMC, Jeff has a deep understanding of enterprise technology and how finance functions can drive business growth. Rich Wagner is the Field CTO at Board and the former CEO & Founder of Prevedere, a predictive analytics company that leverages external data for accurate forecasting. With over 20 years of experience in technology, consulting, and Fortune 500 leadership, Rich brings valuable expertise in the intersection of AI, finance, and business strategy.Expect to Learn:How AI is transforming financial planning, reducing manual work, and improving decision-making.Why integrating external data is essential for more accurate forecasting and risk management.Why traditional budgeting cycles are outdated and how real-time, agile forecasting is becoming the new norm.How CEOs and finance leaders rely on FP&A teams for strategic decision-making.How finance professionals can improve their skills and become more valuable business partners.Here are a few relevant quotes from the episode:“AI is revolutionizing FP&A by reducing manual work and improving time-to-value.” - Rich Wagner“The companies that embrace continuous planning will be the winners in their industries.” - Jeff Casale“External data helps FP&A teams anticipate risks, not just react to them.” - Rich WagnerThis episode reinforced the idea that FP&A is evolving into a strategic powerhouse. AI, external economic data, and real-time forecasting are changing how companies plan, react, and make decisions. FP&A professionals must develop both technical and strategic skills to stay relevant.Operator's Guild:Operators Guild is where the best CEOs, CFOs, VPs of finance, and BizOps leaders in the business connect, network, and grow together. Built by operators for operators, this members-only community is home to more than 1000 of the most elite high-growth operators in the world. Experience connection and knowledge share with professionals who understand you like no one else does. Learn more and apply at https://bit.ly/3F6sghSFollow FP&A Tomorrow:Newsletter - Subscribe on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=6957679529595162624 Follow Jeff:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffreycasale/Board- https://www.board.com/Follow Rich:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rich-wagner1/Prevedere -
Guest: Dr. Sean Waugh, National Severe Storms Laboratory research scientistAs we've seen in the movies, and real life, tornadoes are some of the most destructive forces in nature, capable of leveling homes and damaging entire communities in a matter of minutes. And what about hail? It causes BILLIONS and billions of dollars in damage in the US every year. But how do we get up-close, real-time data on these violent storms in order to learn what is needed for better predictions? That's where cutting-edge field research comes in. Today on Weather Geeks, we're diving into the world of storm observation and mobile weather technology with Sean Waugh from NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory. From deploying instrumented drones and mobile mesonets to braving the extreme environments of tornadoes and hailstorms, his work is helping scientists better understand the atmospheric conditions that drive severe weather for years to come…Chapters00:00 The Destructive Power of Tornadoes and Hail02:58 Sean Wu: A Journey into Meteorology05:57 Innovative HAIL Camera Technology08:47 Chasing Hail: The Challenges and Safety Measures11:59 Observing Hail: The Role of High-Speed Cameras14:46 Mobile Mesonets: Gathering Atmospheric Data17:59 Machine Learning and AI in Weather Prediction21:02 AI in Meteorology: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy24:23 Hands-On Learning: Training the Next Generation of Meteorologists26:00 Tornado Research: Understanding Formation and Behavior28:05 Behind the Scenes of Twisters: A Meteorologist's Role32:20 Authenticity in Film: The Science of Twisters36:41 Passion in Meteorology: Inspiring Future GenerationsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Net-demand energy forecasts are critical for competitive market participants, such as in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and similar markets, for several key reasons. For example, accurate forecasting helps predict when supply-demand imbalances will create price spikes or crashes, allowing traders and generators to optimize their bidding strategies. It's also important for asset optimization. Power generators need to know when to commit resources to the market and at what price levels. Poor forecasting can lead to missed profit opportunities or operating assets when prices don't cover costs. Fortunately, artificial intelligence (AI) is now capable of producing highly accurate forecasts from the growing amount of meter and weather data that is available. The complex and robust calculations performed by these machine-learning algorithms is well beyond what human analysts are capable of, making advance forecasting systems essential to utilities. Plus, they are increasingly valuable to independent power producers (IPPs) and other energy traders making decisions about their positions in the wholesale markets. Sean Kelly, co-founder and CEO of Amperon, a company that provides AI-powered forecasting solutions, said using an Excel spreadsheet as a forecasting tool was fine back in 2005 when he got started in the business as a power trader, but that type of system no longer works adequately today. “Now, we're literally running at Amperon four to six models behind the scenes, with five different weather vendors that are running an ensemble each time,” Kelly said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “So, as it gets more confusing, we've got to stay on top of that, and that's where machine learning really kicks in.” The consequences of being ill-prepared can be dire. Having early and accurate forecasts can mean the difference between a business surviving or failing. Effects from Winter Storm Uri offer a case in point. Normally, ERCOT wholesale prices fluctuate from about $20/MWh to $50/MWh. During Winter Storm Uri (Feb. 13–17, 2021), ERCOT set the wholesale electricity price at its cap of $9,000/MWh due to extreme demand and widespread generation failures caused by the storm. This price remained in effect for approximately 4.5 days (108 hours). This 180-fold price increase had devastating financial impacts across the Texas electricity market. The financial fallout was severe. Several retail electricity providers went bankrupt, most notably Griddy Energy, which passed the wholesale prices directly to customers, resulting in some receiving bills of more than $10,000 for just a few days of power. “Our clients were very appreciative of the work we had at Amperon,” Kelly recalled. “We probably had a dozen or so clients at that time, and we told them on February 2 that this was coming,” he said. With that early warning, Kelly said Amperon's clients were able to get out in front of the price swing and buy power at much lower rates. “Our forecasts go out 15 days, ERCOT's forecasts only go out seven,” Kelly explained. “So, we told everyone, ‘Alert! Alert! This is coming!' Dr. Mark Shipham, our in-house meteorologist, was screaming it from the rooftops. So, we had a lot of clients who bought $60 power per megawatt. So, think about buying 60s, and then your opportunity is 9,000. So, a lot of traders made money,” he said. “All LSEs—load serving entities—still got hit extremely bad, but they got hit a lot less bad,” Kelly continued. “I remember one client saying: ‘I bought power at 60, then I bought it at 90, then I bought it at 130, then I bought it at 250, because you kept telling me that load was going up and that this was getting bad.' And they're like, ‘That is the best expensive power I've ever bought. I was able to keep my company as a retail energy provider.' And, so, those are just some of the ways that these forecasts are extremely helpful.”
Brandon Horoho is a brand builder, e-commerce strategist, and the driving force behind one of the most innovative American-made knife companies. As the Co-Founder, VP, and CMO of Montana Knife Company (MKC), he has transformed a niche product into a multi-million dollar brand with a cult following.Before launching MKC, Brandon spent decades in e-commerce and product marketing, overseeing the launch of 1,500+ products across the outdoor and fitness industries. His expertise in community-driven marketing, scarcity-based sales models, and direct-to-consumer growth strategies has helped MKC scale rapidly—without relying on traditional advertising.Today, Brandon is on a mission to redefine American-made manufacturing in the digital age. Under his leadership, MKC has built a passionate audience of hundreds of thousands, mastering sellout product drops, a unique VIP program, and customer-first engagement strategies. By focusing on transparency, quality, and people-first branding, he's proving that DTC success isn't just about sales—it's about creating a movement.In This Conversation We Discuss:[00:41] Intro[00:56] Exploring the evolution of product lines[01:56] Building a brand during the COVID lockdowns[05:05] Scaling from custom batches to forecasting demand[08:48] Mentoring young talent to grow the business[09:38] Using Instagram content to build brand recognition[12:30] Episode Sponsors: StoreTester and Intelligems[15:42] Managing a high return customer rate challenge[16:41] Turning loyal customers into brand ambassadors[19:32] The power of surprise in building brand loyalty[20:38] Scaling product drops with lean manufacturing[22:36] Forecasting product drops 8 months ahead[23:13] Avoiding pre-orders to build trust with customers[24:35] Leveraging American-made for authentic marketingResources:Subscribe to Honest Ecommerce on YoutubeWorking Knives For Working People montanaknifecompany.com/Follow Brandon Horoho linkedin.com/in/brandonhoroho/Book a demo today at intelligems.io/Done-for-you conversion rate optimization service storetester.com/If you're enjoying the show, we'd love it if you left Honest Ecommerce a review on Apple Podcasts. It makes a huge impact on the success of the podcast, and we love reading every one of your reviews!
On today's podcast episode, we discuss why Netflix viewers are spending less time on the platform, how the free ad-supported streaming players are getting on, and how a less discussed social platform has fast become one of the places Americans spend most of their social media time. Tune in to the episode with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Principal Forecasting Writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, Senior Forecasting Analyst Zach Goldner, and Senior Director of Forecasting, Oscar Orozco. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify. Follow us on Instagram at: https://www.instagram.com/emarketer/ For sponsorship opportunities contact us: advertising@emarketer.com For more information visit: https://www.emarketer.com/advertise/ Have questions or just want to say hi? Drop us a line at podcast@emarketer.com For a transcript of this episode click here: https://www.emarketer.com/content/podcast-behind-numbers-our-total-media-consumption-hitting-ceiling-which-areas-starting-fall © 2025 EMARKETER
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