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The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time, the European policy mix is looking far more supportive of European assets and the EUR than previously imagined. But how much of these relative reassessments are now in the price? And are there political elements that might extend the downtrend in the dollar even further? This week, Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, joins the podcast to discuss all of these important themes and questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a recently published research note, we discuss how, as Q4 begins, high expectations and divergent positioning across and within asset classes make for a less obvious opportunity set.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
And the end of 2023, Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, published a piece highlighting where our research offered a differential to market consensus throughout the year. This week, he is back on the podcast to talk about where those potential surprises may or may not be resolving and what investors can expect as a consequence, with narratives and trends forming as we move deeper into 2024.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The calm in currency markets since the late summer has been one of the stranger puzzles of the last year. Its not as though FX markets have nothing to think about - questions over both risky and riskless asset valuation have dominated thinking for the last three months. And yet volatility in most markets, but particularly in FX, is dropping like a stone and reaching multi-year lows. This week, Tim brings back Michael Metcalfe, our Global Head of Macro Strategy, and Peter Vincent, head of Trading in EMEA, to discuss why it has been so calm and what might disrupt things in the New Year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Inflation is in retreat - not at a pace fast enough for the Fed to abandon its stance of tighter monetary policy but enough that the Fed skipped a rate hike at its most recent policy meeting. During a pivotal two weeks of central bank meetings, where inflation remains top of mind, what now? Join Tim as he discusses the outlook for inflation and monetary policy with State Street Global Markets' Head of Macro Strategy, Michael Metcalfe. Drawing on PriceStats and State Street's other real-time data tools, Michael provides an up to the minute inflation reading and considers the likelihood of a prolonged pause in rate hikes and the prospect of rate cuts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets, discusses the latest on the markets. He spoke with hosts Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Australian disability support has experienced something of a revolution of late thanks to the NDIS. On this episode of the ProActive Podcast, Michael Metcalf explains how he created Kynd, a platform that allows those in need to best capitalise on this new, life-changing approach to care.
Welcome to the podcast from Morningstar UK, the leading provider of investment news, views and analysis. This week we’re focusing on how politics can affect stock markets, from Brexit and emerging markets to Donald Trump’s trade policies. Let’s start with Brexit. Our first guest, - Michael Metcalfe, Head of Global Macro Strategy at State Street, likens a no deal or hard Brexit to a natural disaster that it will inflict serious damage on the UK economy. Donald Trump's tax reforms will cause inflation and this will cause interest rates to rise, but dwindling liquidity is a concern too, says Jeff Boswell, Manager, Investec Global Total Return Credit Fund. Continuing with president Trump, Somerset Capital's Ed Lam says you can't ignore political risk when investing in emerging markets, and so is favouring India and investing away from Trump's tariffs. Our next guest is Olufemi Mada, Senior investment Analyst for Morningstar investment Management who talks to us about why it has been a difficult 2018 for emerging market bonds. Specifically, he discusses how Turkey and Argentina are only a small proportion of the bond market - but their current problems have impacted returns across the asset class. Turkey and Argentina may be in trouble, but the contagion slump has gone too far says our next guest, Delphine Arrighi, Manager of the Old Mutual Emerging Market Debt Fund Is Rising Volatility the Start of the Great Correction? Our next guest, T Rowe Price's Chris Alderson explains why stock market performance is diverging - and what investors should expect next There are 5 megatrends shaping the future of investing according to our next guest Rob Powell, Thematic Investment Strategist at iShares. Let’s dive straight in to find out what they are and how these megatrends are shaping global economies and stock markets Looking for good value equities in the tech space? Ignore the FAANG stocks and consider these three lesser known companies says Killik & Co’s Rachel Winter And that’s the end of this edition. We hope you enjoyed this programme from everyone here at Morningstar UK, thanks for listening. Subscribe to our podcast on itunes: https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/morningstar-uk/id965873075?mt=2 http://www.morningstar.co.uk
The UK vote was a shock, but is it a systemic one? Michael Metcalfe of State Street tells Roger Blitz there are already signs that the rest of the world can quarantine the impact of Brexit around the UK See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
우리는 "무슨 수를 쓰더라도" 기후변화에 맞설 수 있을까요? 2008년 금융위기에 전세계 정부들은 "무슨 수를 쓰더라도" 금융회복을 약속했고, 경제붕괴를 막기위해 2천 5백억 달러의 국제통화를 발행했습니다. 즐겁도록 급진적인 연설에서, 금융전문가 마이클 멧칼프는 녹색미래를 위해서 금융위기 때와 똑같은 변칙적인 금융지원을 약속하는 세계적 합의가 필요하다고 역설합니다.
Will we do whatever it takes to fight climate change? Back in 2008, following the global financial crisis, governments across the world adopted a "whatever it takes" commitment to monetary recovery, issuing $250 billion worth of international currency to stem the collapse of the economy. In this delightfully wonky talk, financial expert Michael Metcalfe suggests we can use that very same unconventional monetary tool to fund a global commitment to a green future.
¿Haremos todo lo necesario para luchar contra el cambio climático? En 2008, tras la crisis financiera, los gobiernos de todo el mundo adoptaron el hacer "lo que sea necesario" para la reactivación monetaria y emitieron moneda internacional por un valor de 250 000 millones de dólares para poner freno al colapso económico mundial. En esta maravillosa charla, el experto financiero Michael Metcalf sugiere que podemos usar la misma herramienta monetaria no convencional para financiar un compromiso global para un futuro más sostenible.
Faremos todo o possível para combater a mudança climática? Em 2008, diante da crise financeira global, os governos de todo o mundo adotaram o compromisso de “fazer tudo o que for possível” para efetuar a recuperação monetária, reservando o equivalente a US$ 250 bilhões de recursos internacionais para evitar o colapso da economia. Nesta deliciosa palestra, o especialista Michael Metcalfe sugere que podemos usar a mesma ferramenta monetária não convencional para financiar um compromisso global com um futuro verde.
Ferons-nous tout ce qui est nécessaire pour combattre le changement climatique ? En 2008, après la crise financière mondiale, des gouvernements des quatre coins du monde ont décidé de faire « tout ce qui était nécessaire » pour redresser l'économie, émettant l'équivalent de 250 milliards de dollars de devise internationale pour endiguer l'effondrement économique. Dans cette présentation qui dérape merveilleusement, l'expert financier Michael Metcalfe suggère qu'il serait possible d'utiliser ce même outil monétaire non conventionnel avec le but de financer un engagement mondial pour un avenir respectueux de l'environnement.