FT Hard Currency

The US currency's ascent in 2018 has surprised many analysts and investors. The reflation trade that followed the election of Donald Trump was not expected to last. Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal tells Michael Hunter why the rally has endured, and outlines the wider factors setting the pace for the euro, emerging market currencies and the pound.This is the final edition of Hard Currency before the podcast is relaunched, taking a fresh approach to a wider range of markets. Please stay subscribed to be among the first to hear it. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A Federal Reserve rate rise had little impact on the dollar while ECB president Mario Draghi drove the euro higher with optimistic comments on eurozone wages and inflation. But is that enough for a sustained market push to buy euros and sell dollars? Jeremy Thomson-Cook of World First gives his thoughts to Roger Blitz and looks at the the effect of growing trade tensions on emerging market currencies See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Trade tensions are hotting up, Brexit talks are souring and the Federal Reserve is gearing up for another rate hike, yet currencies in the firing line, from emerging markets to sterling, seem unperturbed. Jane Foley of Rabobank tells Roger Blitz why currency moves are not reverting to type See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Inflation strength in Europe and the the UK and weakness in the US were important factors in forex as central banks took centre stage, while Turkey's big interest rate rise helped stabilise emerging markets. Kamal Sharma of BofA Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz what that means for the dollar, the euro and the pound, and whether EM currencies are out of the woods See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A week dominated by falls in emerging market currencies, notably the South African rand, is triggering another bout of concern that the problems that afflicted the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira this year are becoming contagious. Kit Juckes of Société Générale discusses with Roger Blitz the reasons why EM are again under pressure and what it would take for their currencies to gain some respite See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The British pound, Argentina's peso and Turkey's lira: all of them in the news and all getting pushed around (albeit in different directions) by politics. Katie Martin talks to Eoin Murray, head of investment at Hermes, about what the moves are telling us and what these shocks tell us about global market conditions. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The dollar came under pressure on two fronts this week - Donald Trump's impeachment risk and the president's disparaging remarks about the Federal Reserve for raising US interest rates. But it is the Fed's own views, with a tilt to the dovish side, that should see the dollar lose the momentum of recent months, Société Générale's Alvin Tan tells Roger Blitz. That should mean renewed strength for the euro and yen, but not necessarily for emerging market currencies. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Turkey's troubled lira, worries about emerging market currencies and the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the rouble and renminbi have put foreign exchange at the heart of the financial market's traditional August anxiety. Derek Halpenny of MUFG discusses with Roger Blitz the longer term implications of the weeks of summer turmoil, and offers a note of caution on the rising dollar See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this week injected renewed vigour into the dollar, while weak data and Brexit woes undermined the pound. David Bloom of HSBC tells Roger Blitz why the case for continued dollar strength is more convincing than the case for further sterling weakness. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Investors treated the UK foreign secretary's resignation with little concern, leaving the pound poised for a rally as the prospect of a softer Brexit looms into view. Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz why he is a buyer of sterling, and looks at the implications of trade tensions on the market See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

China's central bank verbally intervened to stabilise the renminbi after a fall that echoed the dramatic declines of 2015-16. Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal tells Roger Blitz what we learned about China's currency strategy and argues that G10 policy normalisation is back on track, which should see the euro push higher See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Investors have barely had time to acknowledge that there is an EU summit taking place, as trade wars and China worries occupy their thoughts. But as John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz, that's not to say they are complacent about the implications of a slowing eurozone economy and rising populism on the continent See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The emerging markets sell-off is starting to weigh on Asian currencies. Mansoor Mohi-uddin of NatWest Markets explores the reasons with Roger Blitz, looking at the impact of trade tensions on China and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's ambivalence towards EM economies See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A big week in the policy making world saw the US Federal Reserve plough on with rate hikes while the European Central Bank took a more dovish approach, even though it set a timetable for the end of asset purchases. Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz what that means for the euro and the dollar. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

European Central Bank policymakers warmed up investors to a potentially big announcement next week on asset purchases and normalisation, sending the euro higher. Does this mark the end of the dollar rally? Not so fast, Rabobank's Jane Foley tells Roger Blitz - there is less to this ECB strategy shift than meets the eye. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Markets were guilty of complacency about Italy, says Adrian Hilton of Columbia Threadneedle, failing to appreciate the existential threat to the euro. He tells Roger Blitz what this week's fallout in bonds and currencies means for investors' risk appetite for the rest of 2018 See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Turkish lira's collapse has emerging market investors wondering whether there is any case for continuing to hold assets there. Yerlan Syzdykov of European asset manager Amundi, who was among those investors to lunch with president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in London last week, examines the pros and cons with Roger Blitz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Local factors are contributing to sharp falls in the currencies of Argentina and Turkey, but other emerging markets cannot escape the impact of the dollar's strength. Simon Quijano-Evans of Legal & General Investment Management looks at the implications for EM and tells Roger Blitz why the US cannot ignore the sell-off for too long See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The rout in emerging market currencies has exposed investors to an uncomfortable realisation - they were too willing to buy the EM rally at the start of the year, says Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management. He spells out to Roger Blitz the lessons of this episode See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The sharp rally in the dollar has investors asking whether it is sustainable or about to fizzle out. Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon has the answer, and as he tells Roger Blitz it’s all to do with yield. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A rising dollar and a rising oil price are two of the big market moves of the week. But as Bill McQuaker of Fidelity International tells Roger Blitz, the biggest was the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 3 per cent, signalling the end of the bond bull market and the start of a more turbulent phase for markets. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Despite global growth, investors are struggling to find a driver, not just in foreign exchange but in other markets. What's causing this doubt and introspection? Helen Thomas of macro-economic consultancy Blonde Money tells Roger Blitz that three market tremors of recent weeks, related to electronically-traded funds, are behind investor uncertainty See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

With some notable exceptions, currencies are spookily quiet in the middle of tensions over trade, signs of slowing growth in Europe, and the ever-present risk that Twitter spats could spiral into geopolitical crises. But Tim Graf of State Street Global Markets tells Katie Martin that's what currencies are supposed to do. Embrace the calm, but keep an eye on the Turkish lira and rouble. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Trade tensions and equity sell-offs should be making investors wary of risky emerging market assets. But Wike Groenenberg of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why EM is proving resilient to market pressures and looks at the factors that will influence its performance for the rest of the year See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

January's euphoria seems a world away as volatility infects markets, but Silvia Dall'Angelo of Hermes Investment Management tells Roger Blitz that economic fundamentals are still sound and the dollar remains under pressure. The big worry, however, is a widening trade war. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A Fed rate hike, market tensions about tariffs, a Brexit transition deal and Bank of England hawkishness - Erik Norland of CME Group tells Roger Blitz why things are looking up for sterling and less promising for the greenback See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

How big an impact is the prospect of an international trade dispute centred on US tariffs having on the foreign exchange market? Viraj Patel joins the FT's Michael Hunter to look at the main factors moving currencies, including economic fundamentals and the outlook for interest rates See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The European Central Bank is creeping towards the exit from super-stimulative monetary policy. How can it do this without sending the euro flying, particularly while US trade policy unnerves dollar bulls? Stephen Gallo from BMO Capital Markets talked to the FT's Katie Martin about Trump, trade, and taper tantrums. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

New Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's optimistic view of the US economy and faster rate hikes caused stocks to sell off and the dollar to rise. But Jean Medecin of Carmignac thinks this outlook is too rosy, and that the world needs to get used to the idea of slowing global growth and static inflation. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Federal Reserve hawkishness and market nerves have given the dollar a reprieve from depreciation, but reasons for its weakness far outweigh reasons why it may rebound. Bilal Hafeez of Nomura tells Roger Blitz that not only are we in a dollar bear market but we've been trading it for a year and it's got several years to go. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Foreign exchange investors have sat out much of the recent market volatility. Roger Hallam of JPMorgan Asset Management joins Michael Hunter to look at why dollar weakness has proved so stubborn and to identify the‎ wider market trends. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Was it a market turmoil, a crash? Or just a jolt, a correction? Whatever your description of this week's equities sell-off, it adds up to a healthy adjustment to a market that is better placed for volatility, as the world gets used to rising inflation and rate rises. That's the view of Max Kettner of Commerzbank, who also discusses with Roger Blitz the surprisingly hawkish Bank of England meeting and the fluctuating dollar See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The apparent fondness for a weaker dollar among US administration officials has been enough to prompt HSBC's David Bloom to rip up his forecasts. But he tells Katie Martin that this is no currency war. In fact, currencies are on a path to peace and harmony. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin sent forex traders' screens into meltdown when he said a weak dollar was in US interests. With trade tensions adding to currency volatility, Tim Graf of State Street talks to Roger Blitz about how much more the dollar could suffer from this double whammy, how Europe and China might respond and whether the gains being enjoyed by the euro, the yen and sterling are justified. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

2018 has so far seen the dollar fall - but why? Rising Treasury yields, strong US growth and a Federal Reserve all set to raise rates three times this year should be giving the greenback some impetus, but the opposite is happening. Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets admits it is hard to understand, but tells Roger Blitz why it may be happening, and looks ahead to next week's keenly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Data, rumours and policy announcements big and small caused notable forex moves, including swings towards the euro and the yen, as investors rushed to grab the initiative at the start of 2018. Viraj Patel of ING sifts through the evidence and tells Roger Blitz which currency he thinks is this year's one to watch See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

2017 was a year of transition, says Nick Gartside of JP Morgan Asset Management, as growth became more global and central banks adjusted monetary policy towards normalisation. That sets up 2018 as a year for accelerated growth and rising inflation, he tells Roger Blitz, and that means the euro is going to grow further at the dollar's expense as the ECB steps up tapering. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

BNY Mellon's Simon Derrick talks to Katie Martin about the curious case of stable sterling, the pending wave of tighter monetary policy, and the hidden signs of nerves in global markets. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Roger Blitz discusses the impact on the currency markets of signs of Brexit breakthroughs and movement on US tax cuts with Richard Benson of Millennium Global. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The German chancellor's coalition problems had only a fleeting impact on the euro, as investors were more interested in rising business confidence in the eurozone. George Papamarkakis of North Asset Management tells Roger Blitz why the single currency is in good shape and why the Swedish krona is also heading higher despite a big fall this week See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Market jitters have hit equities, junk bonds and emerging market currencies. Is this something for forex investors and others to worry about? No, State Street's Michael Metcalfe tells Roger Blitz, but although the global economy remains in "Goldilocks" territory, surprise upside inflation data could change all that. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Donald Trump's election victory 12 months ago set off a dollar rally and protectionism fears, and heightened political risk in Europe. Roger Blitz asks Eoin Murray of Hermes Investment Management whether markets are more immune to shock, if benign forex conditions will last and what to watch out for in 2018. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The first Bank of England rates hike in a decade left forex investors underwhelmed. With the economy sluggish and wage growth limited, John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz why BoE governor Mark Carney is risking a policy mistake See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In the week the European Central Bank outlined its plans to wind down stimulus, Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal joins Michael Hunter to tune into the signals hidden in the noise See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Investors couldn't help notice the impasse in negotiations over Nafta, Brexit and Catalonia, but did they care very much? Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why the foreign exchange market is more interested in central bank developments than talks deadlock See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Investors brushed off the plunge in the lira as a Turkish difficulty rather than wider issues with emerging market currencies. Is EM FX less vulnerable these days to contagion, or are there more pressing worries for EM, such as a rising dollar, China growth concerns and commodity price movements? Sergei Strigo of asset manager Amundi discusses its prospects with Roger Blitz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Whether it is the choice of Federal Reserve chair, Japan's election, Theresa May's chaotic speech or Catalonia's bid for independence, leadership has been the dominant theme moving currencies, as Itay Tuchman of Citigroup explains to Roger Blitz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Politics was the driver of the forex market at the start of the year, but its influence is now waning, says HSBC's David Bloom. Investors are far more focused on monetary policy and interest rate differentials, he tells Roger Blitz, although pockets of political risk persist See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A hawkish Federal Reserve pushed the dollar higher, but investors stopped short of igniting a full-throttle greenback rally. That is because their focus is on the interest rate deliberations of other central banks, Swissquote's Peter Rosenstreich tells Roger Blitz, with the European Central Bank the one being watched most closely See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Bank of England is leaning towards a rate hike, pushing the pound higher. But does UK data justify the bank's hawkishness, and is sterling's elevated level warranted in the context of ongoing Brexit uncertainty? Jeremy Cook of World First talks to Roger Blitz about BoE governor Mark Carney's options. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Worries about euro volatility featured heavily in ECB president Mario Draghi's press conference this week. But if he was trying to talk down the euro, he failed, says Commerzbank's Max Kettner. He tells Roger Blitz what this means for the euro now and looks at other factors likely to move the currency See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.