Street Signals

In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised to push to new all-time highs, while many traditional safe haven currencies are on the back foot. This week, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading in EMEA for State Street Markets and a podcast regular, returns to offer his thinking on why markets remain so resilient in the face of such risks, whether the US growth outlook is poised to deteriorate and his outlook for currencies in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets, in particular. This week, we look at how all-important reserve managers and governments in Asia are considering all of these threats to stability and how currency and monetary policies are likely to adapt. We bring Dwyfor Evans, our head of macro strategy for Asia, back to the podcast for a broad discussion of the most relevant considerations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Street, discuss how traditional correlation structures are breaking down, drawing parallels to the macro environment of the 1980s and 1990s. Key topics include the reassessment of equity risk premia, whether allocations to fixed income require a re-think and how relevant questions of increased heading of dollar-denominated assets remain after a tumultuous start to the year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly. Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins the podcast to discuss whether a resumption of the strength of recent years is coming, whether equities now merit inclusion in the pantheon of safer assets and to what degree institutional investor preferences are behind one of the more remarkable buys of the dip in recent decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From container shipping and port data to domestic trucking rates, the insights provided by Craig and his team are invaluable in understanding how the disruptions of today transmit into economic data in the coming quarters. In this very special episode of the podcast, we talk through the current tariff turmoil and how he sees supply chains evolving to meet the challenges of a trade war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market—and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious skeptic, this is your inside look at the forces behind the precious metal's golden moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State Street Markets, joins us for a quick but expansive chat on FX markets past and present. We talk through the most impactful evolutions in the client experience over a long career in currencies, as well as what's on the horizon. Current markets are never far from our minds though - especially given a certain US President seems to be following us around the region while we're here. A discussion of where the risk cycle goes next and how to the think about US dollar risk provide a fitting conclusion given events on the ground.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, notes, high conviction views are in short supply. This week, we think about how to navigate the onset of summer and whether the ennui of recent weeks makes it a time to 'sell in May and go away', as the old trading adage goes. Or, if just the 'go away' part will suffice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question is whether the repricing thus far across assets is sufficient. This week, Street Signals changes its format to discuss these questions, as a roundtable of three senior members of the Macro Strategy Team talk about their current thinking and how outlooks have changed. Dan Gerard and Marvin Loh join from the team in Boston and your host, Tim Graf, sheds his usual agnostic stance in adding to the debate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the start of 2025, Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas, joins the podcast, to discuss how the market-making function has evolved in response, whether and where it makes sense to position for further trade-related disruption in FX and interest rate markets and how long-lasting he expects the effects of protectionism to last as a meaningful market driver.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential for FX and equity market returns. Newly announced economic measures from China’s National People’s Congress, the emergence of DeepSeek’s large language model and Japan’s policy choices carry both intra- and inter-regional implications for the macro outlook. This week’s guest, Ben Luk, a senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong, walks through the range of considerations investors are making across the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time, the European policy mix is looking far more supportive of European assets and the EUR than previously imagined. But how much of these relative reassessments are now in the price? And are there political elements that might extend the downtrend in the dollar even further? This week, Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, joins the podcast to discuss all of these important themes and questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. As our guest this week details, the roles played in an emergent world order by the US, Europe, Russia and China are in flux, and we face potentially the most momentous geopolitical reorientation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tsveta Petrova is a lecturer in political science at Columbia University and an analyst and consultant for GeoQuant, a political risk consultancy and one of our research partners.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Consensus trades have been put to the sword. Expectations for higher rates, a stronger US dollar, crypto currencies to the moon and especially US tech stock outperformance have all floundered on the rocks of political uncertainty, rising fears of a US growth scare and worries over both overvaluation of stocks and future investment needs for AI and other drivers of the IT story. How many of these concerns are valid and which are worth looking through? Cayla Seder, a senior strategist from our team in the US, joins us to give her perspective on the equity market and whether tech in particular now represents a buying opportunity or if in fact this is the beginning stages of a bubble bursting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amidst rising tensions and trade tariffs, market discussion often lands on how rising costs of US imports will affect the American consumer, the US balance of trade, inflation and what it all means for the US dollar. The perspectives of the emerging markets as targets in a potential trade war often get overlooked. With a moratorium on tariffs on Mexico due to expire next week and further duties set to be imposed elsewhere over the next month, we refocus the lens on to the other side of the trade war - large exporters in the developing world who face unique challenges should tariffs on US imports spike. Ning Sun, our senior emerging market strategist in the Americas, joins the podcast for a wide ranging discussion of how risks might be avoided and where they still need to be priced.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tariffs at a frenzied pace. Negotiations over peace in Ukraine are only just beginning, with the shape of a resolution anyone’s guess. Fiscal policy is also front and center for bonds, with curbing deficits looking increasingly difficult as defense spending needs and the desire for growth-based policies rise. Ennui prevails as markets seem unwilling or unable to price for higher risk premia. To make sense of it, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading for EMEA at State Street Global Markets, shares his thoughts, walking through the best opportunities on offer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From interest rate cycles to equity valuations, long-term market trends follow a rhythm that shapes global macro—often in ways that aren’t immediately obvious. Add AI’s growing influence and political uncertainty, and navigating today’s landscape becomes even trickier. This week, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe, joins the podcast to break it all down. A keen student of market history, Ben shares insights from a career of cross-asset investing — revealing how the past informs the present and where today’s risks and opportunities lie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language models, posed a wide array of long-term questions. Does DeepSeek's emergence represent a game-changer for the industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And, how impregnable are the moats around the existing, large competitors in the IT ecosystem? This week, to discuss these questions as well as the future of the AI industry, we are pleased to speak with Richard Windsor, founder and CEO of Radio Free Mobile, an independent research firm specializing in the digital and mobile ecosystem.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the podcast, we sit down with Simona Mocuta, Altaf Kassam and Jenn Bender from the research and strategy team at State Street Global Advisors, getting their perspective on the macroeconomy, their preferred asset allocation framework and the building blocks that go into a durable portfolio designed for the long-term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activity are gyrating, with fewer rate cuts now expected. The tension between policy and markets has yet to break out into bond market vigilantism or sharply higher rate volatility. Whether that stasis lasts is another question. Marvin Loh, a senior strategist for State Street Global Markets focused on global rate markets, discusses the mix of these factors on the podcast this week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the relationships between the United States and its largest trade partners and the more global trends of de-globalization and demographics feature. They detail which risks are most meaningful for markets and policymakers, and which may prove fleeting, before concluding with a discussion of State Street’s strategic opportunities in 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietary indicators offer divergences from these views for stocks, bonds and FX, and where consensus thinking might fall short.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 11th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of the document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America, who brings his insights on developing economies and the challenges posed to them by Trump, tariffs and inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the process than usual. Host Tim Graf and the team draw it all together, with ideas in equities, fixed income and currencies, across developed and emerging markets, in this special edition of the podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the so-called Trump Trades are still worth pursuing? Returning to the podcast to answer those questions this week, as well as to offer some initial thoughts for 2025, we welcome back Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Global Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with reflections on his time at State Street. We dive into his research on portfolio construction, risk and asset allocation, before finishing with thoughts on the markets, as well as insights from his forthcoming book, The Psychology of Leadership.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reaction podcast!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Among all the other risks, next week's US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024.  Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed income and currencies at Neuberger Berman, joins the podcast, discussing his approach to risk management across markets ahead of and around a slew of key events.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with Antoinette Schoar, our academic partner and Professor of Finance at MIT's Sloan School of Management. Antoinette has long tracked trends crypto markets and offers a thoughtful approach to the issue and adoption of CBDCs in the coming years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author and visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins the podcast for a thought-provoking discussion of his life's work on the intersection of media and politics, and the search for meaning in the age of information overload.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuting Shao from our Strategy Team in Hong Kong and Lauren Van Biljon, an emerging markets investor from Allspring Global Investments, join the podcast, unpacking what actions have been taken, which have the highest likelihood of success and where it leaves Chinese and emerging market assets over the long term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a recently published research note, we discuss how, as Q4 begins, high expectations and divergent positioning across and within asset classes make for a less obvious opportunity set.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Presidential election is six weeks away, polls are dead-locked and the most relevant questions for markets remain open. Which electoral barometers are of greatest relevance as Election Day approaches? Where are the post-election gaps in the two candidates' policy possibilities the widest? And which markets are most underpriced for the risks those gaps entail? Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors, returns to the podcast with his unique and thought-provoking insights on all of those questions, and much more, as the countdown to November 5th rolls on.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greedflation - companies exploiting a high inflation environment to raise prices relatively more than costs - has grabbed attention and headlines in economics commentary, but the evidence to prove definitively whether it took place on a wide scale in the post-COVID period is not conclusive. This week, we chat with our academic partner Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, about a new working paper in which he and his co-authors take a deep dive into cost and pricing dynamics during the pandemic years. They employ unique data sets and analysis to determine whether, where and when excessive mark-ups on goods prices took place along the supply chains during the high inflation years of 2021-2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory of past cycles with new ideas and ways of thinking is crucial to lasting success. That's the lesson this week, as we talk to Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Voice Trading at State Street Global Markets, about his formative experiences in trading and how they help him to think about the most pressing questions in markets today. Is volatility back for good or will it subside as quickly as it rose? How aggressive will the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and others be in signalling policy intentions this year? What does it all mean for the dollar, yen, rate markets and EM FX? All crucial questions for macro markets addressed on this week's episode. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve's dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. But September is known for seasonal weakness and is kicking off with worries over global growth and a question of whether anticipated monetary easing is enough to sustain gains in bonds and equities. With these challenges in mind, Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, is back on the podcast to discuss optimal asset allocation strategies for the rest of 2024.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year's forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy transmission has gone mostly as expected. Or has it? This week, Marvin Loh checks in with his thoughts on that question, as well as what message to expect, what actions the Fed and other central banks will ultimately take and when they might take them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a burst of volatility, markets are settling. Is the turmoil over or was it the opening episode in a destabilizing series of events? We don't know but there are metrics we can monitor to get a better sense of how asset and currency markets will behave in the coming weeks. Street Signals host Tim Graf walks through four different themes from State Street Global Markets' suite of proprietary indicators of investor behaviour, inflation and risk. Each can be observed daily, with implications for returns in equity, rate and FX markets in the balance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy's soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from our Equity Strategy team in the Americas whether this is merely a healthy correction or the start of a worrying trend.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees interest rate and currency markets potentially underpriced for the uncertainties ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast this week to offer thoughts on how EM has built a degree of resilience and whether the stability seen so far this year can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Higher yields change the game for asset allocators around the world, with pensions in particular now able to better match liabilities to assets. In the UK specifically, 20 years of previously persistent trends in asset allocations now require a reassessment. And this week's general election carries with it a potential expansion of the investor's opportunity set. To unpack what can be a very opaque and complicated investing landscape, this week's guest, Toby Nangle, an independent analyst and contributing editor at the Financial Times, could not be better placed. We talk through how past market movements and ongoing political realities shape the outlook for UK assets and the pound.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research partner, Dan Drezner, professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, at our recent Research Retreats in Boston and London. This week's podcast draws on material from his prepared remarks and the Q&A at the London event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why the Conservatives find themselves in crisis, what opportunities are on the table for a potential new Labour government and how gilts and the pound might fare in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant, who takes us around the world, modelling risk in geopolitics and focusing on the probability of seismic changes for markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.