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Not to toot our own horns (so to speak), it's the undisputed truth that we've had incredible guests on O3L in the past. Our growing roster of "Third Lads" has collectively touched millions of lives. But is there any single person who has changed the very fabric of the music industry as indelibly as this week's Third Lad? Because this week we chat with Nick Holmstén, the man who revolutionized the modern playlist. In that spirit, we are going to "be your algorithm" and give you a wildly eclectic list of songs that you need to stream...RIGHT NOW! Well, OK, wait til after the podcast is done. Priorities, friends! With three decades of diverse experience in the entertainment industry, Holmstén's transformation from a thriving artist, producer, and songwriter into a pioneering leader in the realms of music and technology showcases his dynamic career progression. His tenure as the Global Head of Music at Spotify is a testament to his significant impact on the digital music sphere. This role followed the strategic acquisition of his company, Tunigo, by Spotify in 2013, highlighting Spotify's commitment to remaining at the forefront of the music discovery. He was instrumental in transforming Spotify into a global music powerhouse, introducing the modern playlist that revolutionized the way artists release music and reinvented how fans discover new music, thereby expanding the global reach of music artists. He also established TSX Entertainment, a groundbreaking entertainment company based in Times Square, with the TSX Stage and the TSX Billboard becoming significant cultural icons. The debut performance on the stage by Post Malone earned Six Clio Awards in 2023. Nick Holmstén's journey is recounted in the book Fan Powered Futures, a compelling tale of passion, vision, and innovative spirit shaping the entertainment industry. His groundbreaking work in music, technology, and hospitality inspires a new generation of entrepreneurs, artists, and visionaries, cementing his role as a key figure in the evolution of modern entertainment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
So far, 2025 has been a year of sharp policy shifts and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. With volatility becoming the new normal, how can investors stay grounded? In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido welcomes back Glenn Purves, Global Head of Macro at the BlackRock Investment Institute, to break down the firm's 2025 Midyear Outlook.They explore why the long-term economic picture has become less predictable, how mega forces like AI and geopolitical fragmentation are reshaping global economic markets, and what “investing in the here and now” really means. From the role of private capital in funding infrastructure and energy to the balance between strategic and tactical asset allocation, Glenn shares how investors can find opportunity amid uncertainty in the economy—and what risks investors should watch for in the second half of the year.Sources: 2025 Midyear Outlook, BlackRock Investment InstituteKey moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction to 2025 Market Volatility01:55 Introducing the Investment Midyear Outlook02:46 Geopolitical Fragmentation and Mega Forces03:48 3 Investment Themes In 202505:10 Navigating Uncertainty and Risk08:47 The Role of AI and Energy in Investments13:19 Geopolitical Landscape and Trade Policies16:49 Conclusion and Key Takeaways19:30 Summer Series on The Bid
Recorded live in San Francisco at the HIGHER Altitude Summit, this special episode of Hiring on Cylinders brings the summit's biggest themes to life — from tech-enabled TA and global delivery to AI fluency and what it really takes to be a next-gen TA leader.Hosts Kathryne Friend (VP Community, EMEA @ HIGHER) and Matt Staney (VP Community, USA @ HIGHER) are joined by four world-class TA leaders:James Footman, Recruiting Leader at WizKaren Arnold, Global VP of Talent at AutomatticTracy St.Dic, Global Head of Talent at ZapierAnastasia Pshegodskaya, Director of TA at RemoteTogether, they reflect on how talent leaders are adapting to scale, speed, and complexity—sharing practical insights on distributed hiring, tech implementation, and evolving the role of TA as a true business driver. Missed the summit or want a front-row recap? This episode offers a glimpse into the day's most impactful conversations and themes.
What does effective crypto regulation look like in practice? Ryosuke Ushida, Chief FinTech Officer, Financial Services Agency of Japan (JFSA) joins Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Lab to discuss how Japan became a global leader in regulating digital assets — and what the rest of the world can learn.From the collapse of Mt. Gox to the containment of FTX's fallout, Japan's regulatory evolution offers key lessons in striking the balance between innovation and investor protection. Ryosuke shares how his journey from engineer to international policymaker shaped his pragmatic approach to crypto, DeFi, stablecoins, and AI.In this wide-ranging episode you will hear about:Why Japan's crypto users recovered funds faster post-FTXJapan's leadership at the FATFRegulating stablecoins, virtual asset markets and mitigating and cyber threatsHow AI can transform financial regulationWhether you're a policymaker, VASP, or crypto builder, this conversation reveals the frameworks and foresight guiding one of the world's most mature digital asset regulators.
In this episode of Spikes Excitement Talks, Gordon sits down with Efrain Rosario, Global Head of Retail Marketing and Insights at Diageo. They explore how brands can show up brilliantly at the "moment of choice," why emotional engagement is scientifically critical in retail and how occasion-based insights shape consumer behavior. He also reflects on career-shaping lessons from his time at Coca-Cola, including the power of simplicity in communication and the importance of understanding whether you sell or help people sell.Moreover the conversation dives into Efrain's passion for teaching, his love for continuous learning and the balance between rational and emotional drivers in global brand-building. Along the way, he shares some of his most admired retail strategies from other brands and offers thoughtful reflections on how social moments shape our purchasing decisions.Efrain unpacks what excites him most about the future of retail, including radical personalization, the convergence of online convenience with in-store experience and the potential of AI-powered virtual shopping assistants.Tune in for an insight-packed conversation on retail, brand-building and the future of shopper marketing.*Sandra Peat, Spikes Partner UK is also joining the conversation.
On this TCAF Tuesday, Josh Brown sits down with Joe Davis, Vanguard's Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group to discuss Vanguard's 50th anniversary, Joe's new book, AI, megatrends, inflation, and more! Then at 48:48, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick including a special appearance by IPO expert Aaron Dillon! This episode is sponsored by Public and Rocket Money. Fund your account in five minutes or less by visiting: https://public.com/WAYT Cancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster with Rocket Money. Visit: https://rocketmoney.com/compound Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Public disclosure: All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. Alpha is an experimental AI tool powered by GPT-4. Its output may be inaccurate and is not investment advice. Public makes no guarantees about its accuracy or reliability—verify independently before use. *Rate as of 6/24/25. APY is variable and subject to change. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In today's fast-changing world, disruption is no longer the exception - it's the environment we operate in. But with the right strategies, tools, and mindset, supply chains can do more than survive - they can operate, grow, and thrive.In this episode of Beyond The Box, we're joined by:
My guest this episode is Benjamin Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy and Research at Société Générale.Ben started his career in rates before making the jump to commodities, and that lens—shaped by curve arbitrage, convexity, and carry—colors everything he does. In this conversation, we explore how commodities differ fundamentally from other asset classes: the importance of cash-and-carry economics, the sparse information cadence that rewards technical models, and the physical realities that challenge purely quantitative approaches.We also dive into Ben's more recent work on the geometry of the futures surface, how convexity and skewness may be misunderstood, and why tools like Lévy area might help uncover non-linear structure in the data.Whether you're deep in the weeds of term structure trading or just curious about how to systematize chaos in barrels and bushels, this is a conversation you won't want to miss.
Season 3, Episode 4: Rich Hill, Global Head of Real Estate Strategy at Principal Asset Management, joins the show for a candid deep dive into the state of CRE in 2025, from CMBS and construction lending to the hype around AI data centers. With over $100B in real estate under management, Rich explains why office isn't dead, where multifamily pricing is off, and how investors are recalibrating their return expectations. We discuss: – Why debt is suddenly back in favor – What's fueling (and threatening) the data center boom – Where office sentiment is quietly shifting – The truth behind the “housing shortage” narrative Rich brings clarity to the chaos, offering a rare look at how one of the industry's largest real estate platforms is navigating 2025. TOPICS 00:00 – Intro & Birthday Surprise 03:00 – Rich's Career Path + Joining Principal 06:00 – How Principal Allocates Capital in Today's Market 10:30 – Debt, Construction Lending, and CMBS Strategy 15:40 – Data Centers, AI Demand, and Market Caution 22:30 – Office Outlook and Why Originations Are Ticking Up 28:00 – Living Strategies, Seniors Housing, and Multifamily Mispricing 33:50 – US vs. Europe: Capital Sentiment and Cross-Border Strategy 39:20 – Tariffs, Onshoring, and Resilient Cash Flows 43:00 – Return Expectations for CRE in 2025 and Beyond 47:00 – Final Thoughts on Alternatives and Outlook Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.
Listen to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk and Global Head of Content Strategy J.P. Vicente discuss the growing list of headwinds facing the economy, including tariffs, trade deal uncertainty, and geopolitical conflict. Torsten also explores potential implications for capital markets and much more.
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
We had a whirlwind five days in Cannes last week, bringing you our first of many live, in-person episodes recorded as part of the Cannes Lions Festival. And to kick it off, Jim is diving into a topic that was a part of many conversations in the south of France…the Creator Economy. Creators and the space they've forged have become one of most transformative forces in marketing. It's reshaping how brands connect with people, how content is made and consumed, and how influence is earned. Joining Jim are three guests who know this world very well: Brandon B, Creator and Founder of StudioBKim Larson, the Global Head of YouTube CreatorsKenny Gold, the Managing Director, Head of Social, Content and Influencer for Deloitte DigitalWe're going to talk strategy, authenticity, audience building, and where this entire ecosystem is headed. With a little advice sprinkled in! So, tune in as we come to you live from the Deloitte Apartment at Cannes Lions!---This week's episode is brought to you by Deloitte.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this episode, David Cruz e Silva sits down with Matthew Spence, Barclays' Global Head of Venture Capital Banking, to talk about the state of exits, dual-use tech, and how Europe can seize the next defense innovation wave. With a background spanning the White House, Pentagon, and a16z, Matt shares a unique view from the intersection of global power, technology, and venture.Who should listen:GPs working with later-stage companies or exit-readinessLPs and allocators curious about dual-use and defense opportunitiesPolicymakers and ecosystem builders across EuropeAnyone wondering how venture intersects with geopoliticsHere's what's covered:00:00 Meet Matt Spence & why Barclays is doubling down on venture01:00 SuperVenture 2025: Why Berlin matters to a Silicon Valley banker01:39 “Sneaky good”: The IPO market is back—but not how you expect03:00 How GPs can prep for exits—before they're even on the table04:00 Barclays as an LP: What their private bank is looking for05:10 Defense tech: From bombs to AI & cloud for the battlefield07:00 “The government is a terrible customer”—but that's changing08:30 Dual-use: Why it's not code for defense and shouldn't be10:00 The real opportunity for Europe: leapfrog, don't lag12:30 A wake-up call for Brussels and national leaders15:00 The return to deep tech: hardware + software, redux16:45 Why this isn't just a new trend—it's a venture returning to its roots
In this episode, Jim Lee (Global Head of Capacity Building, Chainalysis) sits down with Richard Las (Chief Investigation Officer, Director Fraud Investigation Service, HM Revenue & Customs) to discuss cutting-edge developments in tax fraud investigations. Richard shares his experience in managing a multi-faceted team and emphasizes the importance of international collaborations in combating financial crime, while sharing HMRC's approach to tax compliance, the impact of technological advancements in investigation and the role of public-private partnerships in reinforcing global financial security. The episode highlights the use of intelligence-led investigations, showcasing how data and private sector partnerships augment HMRC's efforts and how strategic data analysis aids in the fight against tax evasion, particularly with regard to burgeoning areas like crypto assets. Minute-by-minute episode breakdown 2 | Richard Las' background and his role at HMRC 4 | HMRC's fraud investigation service and capabilities 7 | Tax obligations for crypto holders in the UK 10 | Civil vs criminal tax offenses in undisclosed crypto gains 12 | International cooperation against tax evasion 15 | Public Private Partnerships and leveraging crypto service providers Related resources Check out more resources provided by Chainalysis that perfectly complement this episode of the Public Key. Website: HMRC: UK's tax, payments and customs authority Report: HMRC Internal Manual: Cryptoassets Manual Guidance: 01Jan2026: New data collection and reporting requirements for UK Cryptoasset Services Forum: HMRC Community Forums - Crypto Tax (BETA) Blog: Huione Carries On: Chinese-Language Platform's Persistence Reveals the Complexity of On-chain Financial Crime Disruption Announcement: Chainalysis and Aptos Foundation Partner to Increase Trust and Security YouTube: Chainalysis YouTube page Twitter: Chainalysis Twitter: Building trust in blockchain Speakers on today's episode Jim Lee *host* (Global Head of Capacity Building, Chainalysis) Richard Las (Chief Investigation Officer, Director Fraud Investigation Service, HM Revenue & Customs) This website may contain links to third-party sites that are not under the control of Chainalysis, Inc. or its affiliates (collectively “Chainalysis”). Access to such information does not imply association with, endorsement of, approval of, or recommendation by Chainalysis of the site or its operators, and Chainalysis is not responsible for the products, services, or other content hosted therein. Our podcasts are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Listeners should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. Chainalysis has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with your use of this material. Chainalysis does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability or validity of the information in any particular podcast and will not be responsible for any claim attributable to errors, omissions, or other inaccuracies of any part of such material. Unless stated otherwise, reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by Chainalysis. The views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. Views and opinions expressed by Chainalysis employees are those of the employees and do not necessarily reflect the views of the company.
Season 3, Episode 3: Tommy Lee, Global Head of Capital Markets at Trammell Crow Company, joins No Cap podcast for a deep dive into the return of institutional capital—and what it signals for commercial real estate in 2025. Under Lee's leadership, Trammell Crow has raised and deployed over $22 billion since 2018, fueling large-scale development across major U.S. markets. In this episode, he breaks down how global capital is reentering the space, what risks are being mispriced, and why some deals just don't pencil—no matter how they look on paper. We discuss: – The return of institutional investors and what it means for deal flow – Execution risk and capital stack dynamics in today's market – Why distressed deals might not be the opportunity everyone thinks – The illusion of “risk-free” Treasuries and potential cracks in the system Thomas doesn't hold back—and his perspective offers rare insight into how one of the industry's top players is navigating the current CRE landscape. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 05:00 – CRE Pipeline Activity and Investor Sentiment 10:00 – Managing Relationships and Finding Real Opportunity 15:00 – Office Skepticism and Repositioning Challenges 20:02 – What the Capital Markets Team Is Seeing Nationwide 25:00 – Risk, Return, and Raising Capital in Today's Climate 30:00 – Creative Structuring and Non-Traditional Capital 35:00 – What LPs Care About in 2025 40:00 – Regional Plays, Execution Risk, and Exit Timing 45:00 – What Makes a Deal Worth Saying No To 50:00 – Advice for the Next Generation of Real Estate Leaders Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.
Since 2019, Pius leads Sanofi China encompassing Greater China, representing the 2nd largest market of Sanofi in the world with over 8,000 associates. Pius and his team are fully dedicated to transforming healthcare by accelerating the introduction and access to innovative and chronic medicines, driving digitalization, as well as empowering people to bring their best to the workplace.Pius' extensive experience in the healthcare industry encompasses a variety of key positions and responsibilities, including leading global core brands, and P&L responsibilities for different geographical areas within Europe, Latin America, emerging markets, and Greater China. He has worked around the world in countries including France, Germany, Switzerland, Turkey, Brazil, Tanzania, and China. He has successfully launched several major innovative medicines both globally and locally.Pius is a native of Switzerland. He started his career in the healthcare industry at the Cardiology Department of the University of Basel in a research collaboration with Novartis in Switzerland, where he earned his PhD in medical research, graduating magna cum laud. He is an alumnus of INSEAD and Singularity University. He speaks fluent German, English, French, and Portuguese.Pius has an extensive experience with various industry associations, where he currently holds several key leadership positions, as an active member of RDPAC Executive Committee and Sponsor of the Market Access Committee, as well as Vice-Chair of the European Chamber Shanghai Chapter. Pius is also speaker at the World Economic Forum's China Chapter.He is a strong believer in the idea that innovation ultimately drives progress and prosperity, an active advocate for increasing diversity in society. Pius is happily married, and a proud father of twin daughters.
The global investment environment is full of uncertainty — from inflation, growth dynamics, to policy shifts and geopolitical tensions. Investors are seeking clarity and ways to unlock more consistent investment outcomes during a period of unpredictable conditions. Innovations in data analytics and technology are helping investors better understand markets not just in during turbulent times, but in everyday decision making. But is AI the answer to consistent investment performance, and how can human judgment have the potential to create more resilient investment results? Enter systematic investing, that blends human insight and machine learning to pursue consistent alpha in volatile markets through disciplined processes, alternative data, and continuous innovation.Ronald Kahn, Global Head of Systematic Investment Research at BlackRock, has played a foundational role in shaping the field of quantitative investing over the past few decades. He joins host Oscar Pulido to talk about what it means to pursue consistent alpha in today's markets, how data and technology have evolved investors' expectations and how systematic investing continues to deliver potential in uncertain conditions.Key moments in this episode:00:00 Investment Uncertainty in 202502:23 Pursuing Consistent Alpha in Volatile Markets04:02 The Role of Data and Technology04:26 Alternative Data in Action07:53 Systematic Investing and Technology12:44 Human and Machine Collaboration16:07 Considerations for Individual Investors18:47 Conclusion and Next Episode PreviewCheck out the full series covering tariffs and market volatility on The Bid: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3iiZbbNz3eI08zXGZ4n3LI?si=TNiOrYRoSxyXVsbwsBs68Q
Fresh off the heels of Breitling's summer blockbuster release of the Superocean Heritage, the boys had a chance to sit down with Breitling's Global Head of Heritage Gianfranco Gentile to talk about the origins of this unique dive watch, and how it made such a lasting impact since its launch in 1957 – an impact that still persists, now with the launch of the newest Heritage line nearly 70 years later. And be sure to stick around for a Universal Geneve & Gallet teaser, as these are also both brands that Gianfranco is directly involved with!As always, you can reach the crew for questions and comments at podcast@topperjewelers.com. Thanks for your support, and thanks for listening! Follow everyone on Instagram: • Rob: @robcaplan_topper• Russ: @russcaplan• Zach: @zachxryj• Gianfranco Gentile: @gfgm_gWrist check and other elements discussed on this week's episode: • Russ: Breitling Navitimer Cosmonaute 24hr ref. A2232212• Zach: Breitling Superocean Automatic Outerknown 44• Rob: Breitling Superocean '57 Outerknown (strap)• Gianfranco: Breitling Superocean '57 Outerknown (mesh)• Astronaut Scott Carpenter's Breitling Navitimer Cosmonaute• vintage Breitling Superocean Chronograph ref. 807 & ref. 1004• Breitling Superocean '57 "Highlands" Capsule Limited Edition• the new 2025 Breitling Superocean Heritage collection• vintage Universal Geneve 'Nina' Compax Chronograph• vintage Gallet Flying Officer Chronograph...Oh, and by the way: • Russ: The Dollup Podcast: Hugh Glass EP05• Rob: re-watching Point Break (1991) w/ Keanu Reeves and a Breitling Pluton• Zach: Momentum Generation (2018) documentary on HBO and 100 Foot Wave feat. Breitling ambassadors on HBO• Gianfranco: The Breitling Book of Surfing (Rizzoli)
A question we've been hearing a lot at the All Things Sustainable podcast is: How do businesses sync their climate strategies with their financial decisions? In this episode, we bring you highlights from an event that dove into this question in detail: The inaugural S&P Global Sustainable1 Climate Summit hosted by the S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence. The center is home to world-class scientists dedicated to addressing the frontiers of long-term climate, environmental and nature research and methodology development. The June 5 Climate Summit in New York City convened many of those scientists alongside financial institutions and industry leaders to talk about translating climate science into actionable insights that inform investment and financial decision-making. In today's episode we talk to three speakers from the Summit: -Dr. Terence Thompson, the Chief Science Officer at the S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence; he explains the center's work and how it seeks to bridge gaps between stakeholders, including climate scientists, economists and financial institutions. -Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance at the Institute for International Finance, a global network of financial institutions; she explains how IIF members are thinking about climate risks and opportunities. -Aniket Shah, Managing Director and Global Head of the Sustainability and Transition Strategy team at Jefferies Group; he tells us why financial decision-makers need “data, not vibes” to drive their sustainability strategies. Listen to recent podcast interviews referenced in today's episode: Why businesses are going ‘back to basics' in sustainability strategies | S&P Global How HSBC is financing infrastructure for a low-carbon economy | S&P Global How EU proposals could change the sustainability reporting landscape | S&P Global Learn more about the Climate Center of Excellence | S&P Global This piece was published by S&P Global Sustainable1, a part of S&P Global. Copyright ©2025 by S&P Global DISCLAIMER By accessing this Podcast, I acknowledge that S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation as to the accuracy or sufficiency of the information featured in this Podcast. The information, opinions, and recommendations presented in this Podcast are for general information only and any reliance on the information provided in this Podcast is done at your own risk. This Podcast should not be considered professional advice. Unless specifically stated otherwise, S&P GLOBAL does not endorse, approve, recommend, or certify any information, product, process, service, or organization presented or mentioned in this Podcast, and information from this Podcast should not be referenced in any way to imply such approval or endorsement. The third party materials or content of any third party site referenced in this Podcast do not necessarily reflect the opinions, standards or policies of S&P GLOBAL. S&P GLOBAL assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the content contained in third party materials or on third party sites referenced in this Podcast or the compliance with applicable laws of such materials and/or links referenced herein. Moreover, S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty that this Podcast, or the server that makes it available, is free of viruses, worms, or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. S&P GLOBAL EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF ANY INDIVIDUAL'S USE OF, REFERENCE TO, RELIANCE ON, OR INABILITY TO USE, THIS PODCAST OR THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS PODCAST.
BEYOND TALENT ACQUISITION: LEADERSHIP SKILLS NEEDED TO EXPAND SCOPE Talent Acquisition was the optimal specialism in the People Ops function during the ZIRP of hyper growth; but what organisations needed in 2019 is not what organisations need in 2025. We're already in a world where global growth is slowing, companies are getting smaller, more efficient, more automated. The need for everyone in Talent Acquisition is to expand scope but what skills are needed for us to get there? - Lay of the land: State of Talent Acquisition - What is changing in terms of skills demand? - As companies become 'AI first', what does this mean for organisation structure and team size - Non-FTE: who is currently doing this and how does TA takes this on? - Workflow automation: can TA / HR take on the role of 'automators-in-chief'? - Internal mobility - how to unlock IM, retain the talent and reduce demand for external hire? - Technology: what innovations can support TA / HR expansion of scope? - It's too much - how to take on too much and still be effective? - How to delegate - How to hire and grow leaders to whom delegation is possible? - What the main attributes needed for a TA leader to expand scope? - What skills need to be developed? - How to accelerate the development of those skills? All this and more, with Brainfood Live On Air. We're with Johnny Campbell, CEO (Social Talent), Lyndsey Taylor, Global Head of HR Transformation (Brooks Automation), Christine Ng, Head of Talent (Quantum Motion) & friends We are on Friday 20th June, 2pm BST Click on the Save My Spot button to attend for free, and follow the channel here (recommended) to be notified for this and all future Brainfood Lives Ep313 is sponsored by our friends Greenhouse Hiring is hard, and getting it right is even harder. It's a core business-building function with high stakes that takes a lot of moving parts to see real success. You need workflows that accommodate how you function given your company size and goals. You need a user experience that hiring managers actually buy into. And you need an application process that locks talent in. Only Greenhouse gives you all that in one platform.
Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Research, and Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets, discuss how the conflict between Iran and Israel has introduced yet more uncertainty into financial markets.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/nwbqSGcStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.
Jeff Currie is the Chief Energy Officer at the Carlyle Group, one of the world's leading private equity firms.He is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market analysts.He authored a paper called "The New Joule Order" in March of this year. In that paper he asserts that decisions affecting energy investment are no longer being driven purely by cost or even environmental concerns. Rather, they are being driven by energy security considerations. This affects real estate investors that are making assumptions about energy investments that have regional impact on real estate in those area.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
Neda Vakilian, Partner, Investor Solutions Group at Actis Neda is a partner of the firm having joined Actis in January 2022 where she was responsible for the coordination and management of strategic investor initiatives, fundraising project management, and product development. In March 2023, Neda was promoted to Global Head of Actis' Investor Solutions Group. Neda has around 20 years of industry experience, working across private capital markets, business development, and fundraising. Before joining Actis, she was Co-Head of Capital Solutions and Investor Relations for Amber Infrastructure. In this role, she was responsible for sales, client servicing, and product development, and was an investment committee member and board director on strategies. Prior to this, Neda worked at Macquarie Capital and the Green Investment Bank (now the Green Investment Group) where she was a leading member of the team responsible for raising what was, at the time, the largest renewables fund in Europe. She began her career as a solicitor, working at Clifford Chance and SJ Berwin. Disclaimer Risk management seeks to mitigate risk but does not eliminate risk and does not protect against losses. The statements referenced herein regarding the impact of the United States political office on decarbonisation efforts or the market are as of June 2025 and represent the views of Actis which is not research and should not be treated as research. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behaviour or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially and should not be relied upon as such. Moreover, there is no assurance historical trends will continue.
In this episode, we turn the tables on our usual host YS Chi, who becomes our guest for the week. Join us as Márcia Balisciano, RELX Chief Sustainability Officer and Global Head of Corporate Responsibility, poses the questions to reveal fascinating insights from 20 years of curiosity, learning and working with great people at RELX. YS Chi, RELX Director of Corporate Affairs shares with Márcia what we mean by our Unique Contributions. As he celebrates two decades at RELX, YS reflects on how the company has evolved, what drives the business to focus on corporate responsibility and how we define it. He discusses responsible AI, the future of print, and his vision for the future. Along the way, YS shares advice for the next generation of future leaders and thoughts on who we are as a company. The video version of this episode is available at https://youtu.be/-i71SXhpBfg
Kate Scott-Dawkins from WPP Media sits down with Brian Berner, Global Head of Ad Sales at Spotify, during Cannes Lions 2025. They discuss the evolution of advertising, Spotify's innovative strategies, and how AI is shaping both consumer experiences and ad creation. The conversation provides insights into global advertising trends, Spotify's growth in emerging markets, and the future of technology in marketing.00:00 - Welcome to Cannes: Setting the Stage for Innovation03:15 - From Campus Ads to Spotify: Brian Berner's Ad Journey08:45 - Advertising in Flux: Trends Reshaping the Industry14:30 - AI at Spotify: Revolutionizing Personalization and Ads20:10 - Cracking Emerging Markets: India, Brazil, and Beyond25:50 - The Next Frontier: Voice, Wearables, and Consumer Attention31:20 - Wrapping Up: Spotify's Vision for the Future of Advertising
Coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict has been shaped by restricted access and challenges for international journalists. With few media outlets able to base reporters inside Iran, coverage often relies on external analysis, satellite imagery, and information that is difficult to independently verify. Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Shayna Oppenheimer, Journalist at BBC Monitoring, discuss. Netflix's new documentary “Grenfell: Uncovered” marks the eighth anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire by highlighting corporate and regulatory failings that contributed to the tragedy. Director Olaide Sadiq explains how the team built trust with interviewees and brought to light evidence not widely known. Reddit celebrates its 20th anniversary as one of the internet's largest community-led platforms. Laura Nestler, Reddit's Global Head of Community, explains their approach to moderation and addresses concerns about AI's growing role on the platform.Presenters: Ros Atkins and Katie Razzall Producer: Lisa Jenkinson Assistant Producer: Lucy Wai
Herald van der Linde welcomes Global Head of Transport Research Parash Jain and Asia Equity Strategist Prerna Garg into the studio for a discussion on the impact of Middle East tensions on Asian markets, economics and global shipping.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/Rc9xgDh.Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.
The world is experiencing a new reality: infrastructure, agriculture, and supply chains were built for a historical climate that no longer exists. Last year the average global surface temperature was about 1.47° C warmer than in the late 19th century, according to NASA. On current trends we are on course for perhaps 2.7° C of warming by the end of the current century: far in excess of the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5° C.As it becomes increasingly likely that the world is not going to cut greenhouse gas emissions enough to meet that Paris goal, it becomes more and more important for us to learn how to adapt and become more resilient in a warming world.It's an issue that has been a focus for Dr Sarah Kapnick, the Global Head of Climate Advisory at the bank JP Morgan. She is a former Chief Scientist at NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and she knows the worlds of climate science and climate finance inside out.She returns to the show to talk to host Ed Crooks and regular Amy Myers-Jaffe about what the world's failure to get on track for meeting the Paris goals means for finance, investment and our futures. Together they unpack what global warming means for economies, energy systems and vulnerable communities. One critical point where climate damages and risks are emerging as an urgent issue is in insurance costs. Some areas are becoming uninsurable as threats of flooding or wildfires mount. The impacts are worst for low-income communities and countries. Without support to adapt and build resilience, many nations could face a climate-induced debt spiral. So what can we do to be prepared for a warming world? How are energy companies investing to stay ahead of the risks? And can there be a profitable business in climate adaptation? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
VentureFuel's Visionary of the Year is an honor voted on by peers in corporate innovation for the change agent who seizes new opportunities that drive outsized results. This year's winner, Charlotte Newman, is the former Global Head of Underrepresented Founder and Investor Startup Business Development at AWS, former founder, and a passionate advocate in the Senate and US House of Representatives for diversity, equity, and inclusion, driving initiatives that empower marginalized entrepreneurs worldwide. Join us to hear her inspiring journey and insights on transforming the innovation ecosystem through collaboration and access.
Heather H. Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of CLARA Analytics, has more than a decade of executive experience in data, analytics, and artificial intelligence, including Global Head of Innovation and Advanced Technology at Kaiser Permanente and Chief Data Officer of AIG. While at AIG, she was named Insurance Woman of the Year by the Insurance Technology Association for her data innovation work. Wilson has been a steady supporter of diversity. She launched the Kaiser Permanente Women in Technology group, focused on mentorship and retention for women in math, technology, and science. At AIG, she launched Global Women in Technology and served as Executive Sponsor of Girls Who Code. In this episode of In the Know, Chris Hampshire and Heather explore the work she has done to empower women in coding and STEM, AI technology advancements, and strategies for addressing talent challenges in today's fast-evolving insurance industry. Key Takeaways Heather's career unfolded in three chapters. The current state and application of analytics in today's insurance industry. A look into the future of large language model (LLM) technology. The application of agentic AI in the claims sector. Integrating new and legacy technology platforms. Heather's experiences as a female leader in the insurance industry. Industry disruption, talent recruitment, and navigating the silver tsunami. Data analysts and the insurance industry. A five-year look to changing agent and adjuster responsibilities. Heather's strategic risk advice to her early career self. In the Know podcast theme music written and performed by James Jones, CPCU, and Kole Shuda of the band If-Then. To learn more about the CPCU Society, its membership, and educational offerings, tools, and programs, please visit CPCUSociety.org. Follow the CPCU Society on social media: X (Twitter): @CPCUSociety Facebook: @CPCUSociety LinkedIn: @The Institutes CPCU Society Instagram: @the_cpcu_society Quotes “At the end of the day, there is an outcome that we're trying to drive for the claimant and for the insurer.” “AI is helping us take the surprises and get in front of them to handle cases differently.” “Whether it's a risk or claims system, they really have the opportunity to lead the insurance industry on agentic AI.” “Data is still king, and so is the orchestration of that data.” “For super complex cases, people still need to have that human-in-the-loop touch.”
Fresh off his panel at the International Derivatives Expo in London, Derek Sammann, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Commodities Markets at CME Group, joins the show to discuss how markets are handling recent volatility events. CME Group has seen record volumes in energy markets and has also seen growth across agricultural and metals, with significant increases in EMEA and APAC regions. Sammann emphasized CME Group's dual focus on risk management and price discovery, and notes how retail participation -- particularly in gold -- is surging, driven by inflation hedges.Sign up for Modern Money SmartBrief
For the 20th anniversary edition of BrandZ's global report, Adele Jolliffe, Head of Head of Brand Consultants, Kantar talks with Georgia Balinsky, Vice President, Global Head of Brand & Creative, RBC about the evolution of marketing and brand-building over the past two decades and the importance of brand in driving growth.Georgia is Vice President, Global Head of Brand & Creative at RBC. She is a modern brand building expert whose mission is to establish the power of brand as a catalyst for value creation in today's hypercompetitive business landscape. Read the 20th anniversary edition of BrandZ's global report here: www.kantar.com/brandz Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
We know the increasing use of vapes among teens is an issue we should be concerned about. But when vapes first appeared on the scene, they were largely portrayed as being much safer than cigarettes and experts fear that may have led people to underestimate the risks they pose. Jennifer speaks with Dr Rania Ayat Hawayek, Specialist Paediatrician and the Medical Director at Circle Care Clinic to know the realities of those risks. Meanwhile, a new survey by recruitment firm Robert Walters has revealed a rise in employee turnover here in the UAE - with delays in salary hikes for professionals and white-collar employees cited as taking a toll on workforce stability. While over in the UK, a new government proposal to reduce pay inequality promises, or threatens, to force the publication of information about worker's salaries that would previously have been known only to managers. Does it help make work feel fairer for employees? Or can it also lead to internal conflict and limit flexibility for recruiters and managers? Toby Simpson, Managing Director, Global Head of Executive Search and Lucy D’Abo, Founder of Together workplace culture consultancy discuss. And the region's first Female Majlis on health equity will be aiming to shine a spotlight on a frightening truth: women are diagnosed with disease later, suffer for longer, but often remain unheard in the healthcare system. Jennifer is joined by the event's host, Christina Ioannidis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On this episode of TRM Talks, Ari Redbord sits down with Michael Greenwald — former US Treasury attaché to the Gulf and now Global Head of Financial Innovation and Digital Assets at AWS — to explore the intersection of financial innovation and governments.From representing the United States in high-stakes financial diplomacy to building bridges between policymakers, technologists, and financial institutions, Michael shares his journey and insights on what it takes to create a safer, more connected global financial ecosystem.This conversation unpacks how finance has become a tool of influence, why collaboration is the new currency of trust, and what the path forward looks like in an era of digital transformation and geoeconomic competition.
We welcome back Dan Ives, the Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush Securities, for his third appearance in three months. Dan discusses his recent visits to the New York Stock Exchange and major calls on tech stocks, especially his bullish stance on Tesla. He introduces his new ETF, the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF, which includes a dynamic list of 30 companies crucial to the AI sector, like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla. Despite skepticism around high valuations and market digestion, Dan remains optimistic about the transformative potential of AI. The podcast also covers the performance and future prospects of major tech players like Oracle, IBM, Meta, and Apple, as well as the potential for AI-driven growth in the tech sector. Dan highlights the importance of staying adaptable and responsive in the ever-evolving market landscape, offering insights into how his ETF reflects this approach. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Today's guest is Yunke Xiang, Global Head of Data Science for Manufacturing, Supply Chain, and Quality at Sanofi. Yunke joins Emerj Editorial Director Matthew DeMello to discuss the challenges that slow AI adoption in life sciences manufacturing, highlighting how fragmented data systems and legacy infrastructure create hurdles for AI initiatives. In this episode, Yunke explains how years of acquisitions and siloed data have made building a cohesive data foundation difficult, impacting AI's potential in manufacturing and supply chain optimization. Yunke shares Sanofi's approach to balancing build versus buy decisions for AI solutions and the critical role leadership plays in fostering an environment where data science can thrive. Yunke also reflects on the evolving landscape of AI in pharma manufacturing and the importance of strong governance and collaboration for successful implementation. Want to share your AI adoption story with executive peers? Click emerj.com/expert2 for more information and to be a potential future guest on the ‘AI in Business' podcast! Learn how brands work with Emerj and other Emerj Media options at emerj.com/ad1.
If we look out 5-10 years, what is going to be more important to the next generation. Is it their digital life or their physical life? In this “Live from Links” episode, Patrick Ghion, Chief Cyber Strategy Officer for the Geneva Cantonal Police and an active member of the INTERPOL Metaverse Expert Group provides his answer to Jim Lee (Global Head of Capacity Building, Chainalysis), who spent almost 30 years with IRS Criminal Investigation team. The duo discusses the complexities of law enforcement's evolving landscape in the digital age and the critical role of public-private partnerships and academia in combating cybercrime. Patrick provides context around the creation of regional Cyber Competence Centers (RC3) and the progress law enforcement is making in the metaverse, while encouraging police departments to strategize for future threats, training, and the integration of AI. Minute-by-minute episode breakdown 2 | Patrick's career progression and intro to Regional Cyber Competence Center (RC3) 5 | Metaverse policing strategy and approach to “Vision 2030” 7 | Societal shift to report cybercrimes to police in the metaverse than in real life 11 | Public-Private and Academic Partnerships 15 | Hiring strategy for law enforcement for crypto and AI 19 | Reflections on Links Conference and networking Related resources Check out more resources provided by Chainalysis that perfectly complement this episode of the Public Key. Website: Geneva Police: Protect and Serve Blog: Vision 2030+: Geneva Police in the Metaverse Blog: Chainalysis Links NYC 2025 – Day 1 Showcases Innovation, Security, and Collaborative Power Chainalysis In Action: How Chainalysis Helped the FBI Track Down and Freeze Millions in the Caesars Casino Ransomware Attack Blog: AI-Powered Crypto Scams: How Artificial Intelligence is Being Used for Fraud YouTube: Chainalysis YouTube page Twitter: Chainalysis Twitter: Building trust in blockchain Speakers on today's episode Jim Lee *host* (Global Head of Capacity Building, Chainalysis) Patrick Ghion (Chief Cyber Strategy Officer, Geneva Cantonal Police) This website may contain links to third-party sites that are not under the control of Chainalysis, Inc. or its affiliates (collectively “Chainalysis”). Access to such information does not imply association with, endorsement of, approval of, or recommendation by Chainalysis of the site or its operators, and Chainalysis is not responsible for the products, services, or other content hosted therein. Our podcasts are for informational purposes only, and are not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Listeners should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. Chainalysis has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with your use of this material. Chainalysis does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability or validity of the information in any particular podcast and will not be responsible for any claim attributable to errors, omissions, or other inaccuracies of any part of such material. Unless stated otherwise, reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by Chainalysis. The views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. Views and opinions expressed by Chainalysis employees are those of the employees and do not necessarily reflect the views of the company.
Insurance companies and pension plans are playing a bigger role in private credit, with new products evolving to meet their needs. But private wealth participation is still noticeably limited. In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, RBC's Robert Griffith, Global Head of Senior Relationship Management explores the evolving market with Jason Goss, Head of European and Structured Products, and Eric Wise, Head of Alternate Finance.
Private credit has outpaced growth expectations in recent years — but where is it headed next? In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Robert Griffith, Global Head of Senior Relationship Management, speaks with Eric Wise, Head of Alternate Finance, and Jason Goss, Head of European Solutions and Structured Products, about innovation in private credit and how issuers can navigate this rapidly evolving market.
How Do You REALLY Break Into Music Publishing? Dive into the ever-evolving world of music publishing with Kim Frankiewicz, Global Head of Creative at Concord Music Publishing, in this episode of the MUBUTV Music Business Insider Podcast. Kim brings insight on streaming royalties, the rise of female leadership, why work ethic matters, and what publishers are seeking from artists and songwriters today. Tune in for practical career advice and inspiration for navigating the new music industry. Don't miss out!
Warehousing is no longer just about storage - it's about speed, sustainability, and smart technology. In this episode, we explore how AI, automation, and agility are reshaping modern warehousing and what businesses need to know to stay ahead in 2025 and beyond.Join Simon Oxley, Global Head of Business Development at Maersk Contract Logistics, and Amita Maheshwari, Global Head of Supply Chain Development at Maersk, as they share insights on the latest trends, challenges, and innovations transforming the warehousing landscape.Topics covered:
In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Carsten Brzeski, the Global Head of Macro at ING Research, to discuss developments in the German economy following the recent federal elections - held in February 2025. Clay and Carsten begin with notable changes in the economy since the elections were held before analyzing the recent redefinition of Germany's debt brake, how this constitutional reform aligns with Germany's goals and priorities, how U.S.-imposed tariffs on the E.U. impact U.S.-German relations, the path for Germany to reclaim its historical role as one of Europe's leading economies and much more. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
Join Michal Lasman, a global marketing leader, as she delves into a candid conversation with Chloe Petherick, the Global Head of Brand and Communications at Unispace. Discover Chloe's unique perspective on the transformative power of branding and how it can drive organizational alignment, customer loyalty, and bottom-line results.
For episode 34 of the TriloTalk podcast, Lisa Chamberlain James, Senior Partner at Trilogy, sits down with the AI Agent expert Nikesh Shah, VP and Global Head, Generative AI at Indegene. They discuss everything you need to know about AI Agents – the day-to-day usage, project confidentiality, when it will become mainstream, which industries are using it now, and how it will enrich our lives. It's an episode you don't want to miss!
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas reads the fine print of U.S. tax legislation to understand how it might affect foreign companies operating in the U.S. and foreign investors holding U.S. debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today we're talking about a proposal tucked away in U.S. tax legislation that could impact investors in meaningful ways: Section 899.It's Wednesday, June 11th, at 12 pm in New York. So, Section 899 is basically a new rule that's part of a bigger bill that passed the House. It would give the U.S. Treasury the power to hit back with taxes on foreign companies if they think other countries are unfairly taxing U.S. businesses. And this rule could override existing tax agreements between countries, even applying to government funds and pension plans.The immediate concern is whether foreign holdings of U.S. bonds would be taxed – something that's not entirely clear in the draft language. Making the costs of ownership higher would affect holders of tens of trillions of U.S. securities. That includes about 25 percent of the U.S. corporate bond market. In short, the concern is that this would disincentivize ownership of U.S. bonds by overseas investors, creating extra costs or risk premium – meaning higher yields. The good news is that there's a decent chance the Senate will tweak or clarify Section 899. Consider the evidence that the motive of those who drafted this provision doesn't seem to have been to tax fixed income securities. If it was, you'd expect the official estimates of how much tax revenue this provision would generate to be far higher than what was scored by Congress. Public comments by Senators seem to mirror this, signaling changes are coming. But while that might mitigate one acute risk associated with 899, other risks could linger. If the provision were enacted, it acts as an extra cost on foreign multinationals investing in building businesses in the U.S. That means weaker demand for U.S. dollars overall. So while this is not at the core of our FX strategy team's thesis on why the dollar weakens further this year, it does reinforce the view. For European equities, our equity strategy team flags that Section 899 adds a whole new layer of worry on top of the tariff concerns everyone's been talking about. While people have been focused on European goods exports to the U.S., Section 899 could affect a much broader range of European companies doing business in America. The most vulnerable sectors include Business Services, Healthcare, Travel & Leisure, Media, and Software – basically, any European company with significant U.S. business.The bottom line, even if modified, if section 899 stays in the bill and is enacted, there's key ramifications for the U.S. dollar and European stocks. But pay careful attention in the coming days. The provision could be jettisoned from the Senate bill. It's still possible that it's too big of a law change to comply with the Senate's budget reconciliation procedure, and so would get thrown out for reasons of process, rather than politics. We'll be tracking it and keep you in the loop.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market please leave us a review. And tell your friends. We want everyone to listen.
Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley's upcoming U.S. Financials conference.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry. It's Monday, June 9th at 10:30am in New York.Tomorrow Morgan Stanley kicks off its annual U.S. Financials Conference right here in New York City. We wanted to give you a glimpse into some of the most significant themes that we expect will be addressed at the conference. And so, I'm here with two of my colleagues, Manan Gosalia, U.S. Midcap Banks Analyst, and Ryan Kenny, U.S. Midcaps Advisor Analyst.Investors are grappling with navigating economic uncertainty from new tariff policies, inflation concerns, and immigration challenges – all of which impacts financial growth and credit quality. On the positive side, they are also looking closely at regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.Let's hear what our experts are expecting. Manan, ahead of the conference, what key themes do you expect mid-cap banks will highlight?Manan Gosalia: So, there are three key themes that we've been focused on for the mid-cap banks: loan growth, net interest margins, and capital. So, first on loan growth. Loan growth for the regional banks has been fairly tepid at about 2 to 3 percent year-on-year, and the tone from bank management teams has been fairly mixed in the April earning season that followed the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Some banks were starting to see the uncertainty weigh on corporate decision making and borrowing activity, while others were only seeing a slow down in some parts of their portfolio, with a pickup in other parts. Now that we've had two months to digest the announcements and several more positive developments on tariff negotiations, we expect that the tone from bank management teams will be more positive. Now, we don't expect them to say growth is accelerating, but we do expect that they will say loan growth is holding up with strong pipelines. On the second topic, net interest margins, we expect to hear that there is still room for margin expansion as we go through this year. And that's coming in two places, particularly as bank term deposits continue to reprice lower. And then the back book of fixed rate loans and securities, essentially assets that were put on the books four to five years ago when rates were a lot lower, are now rolling over at today's higher rates. Betsy Graseck: So, is the long end of the curve going up a good thing?Manan Gosalia: Yes, for net interest margins. But on the flip side, the tenure going up is slightly negative for bank capital. So that brings me to my third theme. The regional banks are overall in a much better place on capital than they were two years ago. Balance sheets have improved. Capital levels remain solid across the sector. But the recent increase in the long end of the curve is marginally negative for capital, given that there will be a higher negative mark on securities that banks hold. But we believe that higher capital levels that regional banks have accumulated over the past couple of years will help cushion some of these negative marks, and we don't expect the recent shift in the tenure will have a meaningful impact on bank capital plans.Betsy Graseck: So, the increase in the 10-year pulls down capital a little bit, but not enough to trip any regulatory minimums?Manan Gosalia: Correct.Betsy Graseck: So, all in the 10-year yield going up is a good thing?Manan Gosalia: It's slightly negative, but I would expect it does not impact bank growth plans. Betsy Graseck: Okay. All in, what's the message from mid-cap banks?Manan Gosalia: All in, I would expect the tone to be a little more positive than the banks had at April earnings.Betsy Graseck: Excellent. Thanks so much, Manan. Ryan, what about you? What are you expecting mid-cap advisors will say?Ryan Kenny: So, I think we'll hear a lot about the trends in M&A. And when we last heard from investment bank management teams during April earnings, the messaging was more cautious. We heard about M&A deals being paused as companies processed the Liberation Day tariffs, and a small number of deals being pulled. Tomorrow at our conference, expect to hear a measured but slightly improved tone. Look, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what's changed since April is the fact that the U.S. administration is flexing in response to markets. So that should help shore up more confidence needed to do deals, and there's tremendous pent-up demand for corporate activity. Over the last three years – so 2022 to 2024 – M&A volumes relative to nominal GDP have been running 30 to 40 percent below three-decade averages. Equity capital markets volumes 50 to 60 percent below average. There is tremendous need for private equity firms to exit their portfolio investments and deploy $4 trillion of dry powder that has accumulated and also structural themes for corporates – like the need for AI capabilities, energy and biotech consolidation and reshoring – that should fuel mergers as a cycle gets going.So, I think for this group, the message will likely be: April and May – more challenged from a deal flow perspective; but back up of the year, you should start to expect some improvement.Betsy Graseck: So slightly improved tone…Ryan Kenny: Slightly improved. And one of the other really interesting themes that the investment banks will talk about is the substantial growth of private capital advisory.So, this is advising private equity funds and owners on capital raising, liquidation, including secondary transactions and continuation funds. And what will be interesting is how the clients set here is growing. We've seen this quarter, major universities, some local governments that increasingly need liquidity and they're hiring investment banks to advise on selling private equity fund interests.It's really going to be a great discussion because private capital advisory is a major growth area for the boutique investment banks that I cover.Betsy Graseck: How big of a sleeve do you think this could become – as big as M&A outright?Ryan Kenny: Probably not as big as M&A outright, but significant. And it helps give the investment banks' relationships with financial sponsors who are active on the M&A front. So, it can be a share gain story.So, Betsy, what about you? You cover the large cap banks. What do you expect to hear?Betsy Graseck: Well, before I answer that, I do want to just put a pin on it.So, you're saying that for your coverage Ryan, we have some green shoots coming through...Ryan Kenny: Yeah, green shoots and more positive than in April.Betsy Graseck: And Manan on your side? Same?Manan Gosalia: A little bit more of a positive than April earnings, but more of the same as we heard at the start of the year.Betsy Graseck: Okay. Going back to the future then, I suppose we could say. Excellent. Well on large cap banks, I do expect large cap banks will be reflecting some of the same themes that you both just discussed. In particular, you know, we'll talk about IPOs. IPOs are holding up. We look at IPOs where we had 26 IPOs in the past week alone.That's up from 22 on average year-to-date in 2025. And I do think that the large cap banks will highlight that capital market activity is building and can accelerate from here, as long as equity volatility remains contained. By which we mean VIX is at 20 or below. And with capital market activity should come increased lending activity. It's very exciting. What's going on here is that when you do an M&A, you have to finance it, and that financing comes from either the bond market or banks or private credit. M&A financing is a key driver of CNI loan growth. A lot of people don't know that. And CNI loan growth, we do think will be moving from current levels of about 2 percent year-on-year, as per the most recent Fed H.8 data to 5 percent as M&A comes through over the next year plus. And then the other major driver of CNI loans is loans to non-depository financial institutions, which is also known as NDFI Loans. NDFI loans have been getting a lot of press recently. We see this as much ado about reclassification. That said, investors are asking what is the risk of this book of business? Our view is that it's similar to overall CNI loan risk, and we will dig into that outlook with managements at the conference. It'll be exciting. Additionally, we will touch on regulation and how easing of regulation could change strategies for capital utilization and capital deployment. So, you want to have an ear out for that. Well, Manan, Ryan, it's been great speaking with you today.Manan Gosalia: Should be an exciting conference.Ryan Kenny: Thanks for having us on.Betsy Graseck: And thanks for listening everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
After being laid off from his UX position, Duncan Abel wasn't sure how to package his 20+ years of UX experience—or if he even wanted to stay in the field. In this candid conversation, Duncan shares how Career Strategy Lab gave him the structure, community, and confidence to move forward and land a global UX leadership role at the British Standards Institute.Whether you're a senior leader navigating change or just unsure how to communicate your value, Duncan's story will inspire you to stop doubting your experience and start owning your career path.What You'll Learn in This Episode:✔️ Why being experienced doesn't always make job searching easier✔️ How Duncan rebuilt his confidence after a layoff✔️ The surprising value of self-reflection in a job search✔️ What made interviews feel radically different this time✔️ Why your “mentor model” and “compass statement” matter more than you think✔️ How Career Strategy Lab helped him clarify, focus, and land a high-level roleTimestamps:00:00 Introduction to Career Strategy Podcast00:40 Meet Duncan Abel: Career Journey and Challenges04:29 The Impact of Career Strategy Lab10:30 Mentorship and Career Roadmap Insights14:09 Global Relevance of Career Strategy Lab16:45 Final Advice and Encouragement19:58 Conclusion and Social Media Call-to-ActionApplied to 50+ UX or Product jobs & still no interviews or offers? Get UX job search help.Welcome to the Career Strategy Podcast with Sarah Doody, a UX Designer & UX Researcher with 20 years of experience who founded the UX job search accelerator, Career Strategy Lab. She's been doing UX career coaching since 2017.⭐ Support the show! Leave a rating on Spotify or a review on Apple Podcasts to help more UX professionals find this podcast.
The DOJ files to seize over $7 million linked to illegal North Korean IT workers. The FBI warns of BADBOX 2.0 malware targeting IoT devices. Researchers uncover a major security flaw in Chrome extensions. ESET uncovers Iranian hackers targeting Kurdish and Iraqi government officials. Hitachi Energy, Acronis and Cisco patch critical vulnerabilities. 20 suspects are arrested in a major international CSAM takedown. Hackers exploit a critical flaw in Roundcube webmail. Today's guest is Ian Bramson, Global Head of Industrial Cybersecurity at Black & Veatch, exploring how organizations can close the cyberattack readiness gap. ChatGPT logs are caught in a legal tug-of-war. Remember to leave us a 5-star rating and review in your favorite podcast app. Miss an episode? Sign-up for our daily intelligence roundup, Daily Briefing, and you'll never miss a beat. And be sure to follow CyberWire Daily on LinkedIn. CyberWire Guest Today's guest is Ian Bramson, Global Head of Industrial Cybersecurity at Black & Veatch. Ian joins us to explore how organizations can close the cyberattack readiness gap in industrial environments—especially as cyber threats grow more sophisticated and aggressive. Selected Reading Department Files Civil Forfeiture Complaint Against Over $7.74M Laundered on Behalf of the North Korean Government (U.S. Department of Justice) FBI: BADBOX 2.0 Android malware infects millions of consumer devices (Bleeping Computer) Chrome Extensions Vulnerability Exposes API Keys, Secrets, and Tokens (Cyber Security News) Iran-linked hackers target Kurdish and Iraqi officials in long-running cyberespionage campaign (The Record) CISA reports critical flaw in Hitachi Energy Relion devices (Beyond Machines) Critical security vulnerabilities discovered in Acronis Cyber Protect software (Beyond Machines) Cisco Patches Critical ISE Vulnerability With Public PoC (SecurityWeek) Police arrests 20 suspects for distributing child sexual abuse content (Bleeping Computer) Hacker selling critical Roundcube webmail exploit as tech info disclosed (Bleeping Computer)– mentioning this in the Briefing OpenAI slams court order to save all ChatGPT logs, including deleted chats (Ars Technica) Want to hear your company in the show? You too can reach the most influential leaders and operators in the industry. Here's our media kit. Contact us at cyberwire@n2k.com to request more info. The CyberWire is a production of N2K Networks, your source for strategic workforce intelligence. © N2K Networks, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After the federal court's ruling against Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and an appeals court's temporary stay of that ruling, our analysts Michael Zezas and Michael Gapen discuss how the administration could retain the tariffs and what this means for the U.S. economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to the Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist.Today, the latest on President Trump's tariffs.It's Thursday, May 29th at 5pm in New York.So, Mike, on Wednesday night, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. This ruling certainly seems like a fresh roadblock for the administration.Michael Zezas: Yeah, that's right. But a quick word of caution. That doesn't mean we're supposed to conclude that the recent tariff hikes are a thing of the past. I think investors need to be aware that there's many plausible paths to keeping these tariffs exactly where they are right now.Michael Zezas: First, while the administration is appealing this decision, the tariffs can stay in place. But even if courts ultimately rule against the Trump administration, there are other types of legal authorities that they can bring to bear to make sure that the tariff levels that are currently applied endure. So, what the court said the administration had done improperly was levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).And there's been active debate all along amongst legal scholars about if this was the right law to justify those tariff levies. And so, there's always the possibility of court challenges. But what the administration could do, if the courts continue to uphold the lower court's ruling, is basically leverage other legal authorities to continue these tariffs.They could use Section 122 as a temporary authority to levy the 10 percent tariffs that were part of this kind of global tariff, following the reciprocal trade announcement. They also could use the existing Section 301 authority that was used to create tariffs on China in 2018 and 2019, and extend that across of all China imports; and therefore, fill in the gap that would be lost by not being able to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to tariff some of China's imports.So bottom line, there's lots of different legal paths to keep tariffs where they are across the set of goods that they're already applied to.Michael Gapen: So, I think that makes a lot of sense. And with all that said, where do you think we stand right now with tariffs?Michael Zezas: So, if the court ruling were to stand then the 10 percent tariffs on all imports that the U.S. is currently levying, that would have to go away. The 30 percent tariffs on roughly half of China imports, that would've to go away. And the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico around fentanyl, that would have to go away as well.What you'd be left with effectively is anything levied under section 232 or 301. So that's basically steel, aluminum, automobile tariffs. And tariffs on the roughly half of China imports that were started in 2018 and 2019. But as we said earlier, there's lots of different ways that the authority can be brought to bear to make sure that that 10 percent import tariff globally is continued as well as the incremental tariffs on China.But Michael, turning to you on the U.S. economy, what's your reaction to the court's ruling? It seems like we're just going to have a continuation of existing tariff policy, but is there something else that investors need to consider here?Michael Gapen: Well, I'm not a trade lawyer. I'm not entirely surprised by the ruling. It did seem to exceed what I'll call the general parameters of the law, and it wasn't what we – as a research group and a research team – were thinking was the most likely path for tariffs coming into the year, as you mentioned. And as we, as a group wrote, we thought that they would rely mainly on section 301 and 232 authority, which would mean tariffs would ramp up much more slowly. And that's what we had put into our original outlook coming into the year.We didn't have the effective tariff rate reaching 8 to 9 percent until around the middle of 2026. So, it reflected the fact that it would take effort and time for the administration to put its plans on tariffs in into place. So, I think this decision kind of shifts our views back in that direction. And by that I mean, we originally thought most of 2025 would be about getting the tariff structure in place. And therefore, the effects of tariffs would be hitting the economy mainly in 2026.We obviously revise things where tariffs would weigh on activity in 2025 and postpone Fed cuts into 2026. So, I think what it does for the moment is maybe tilts risks back in the other direction. But as you say, it's just a matter of time that there appears to be enough legal authority here for the administration to implement their desires on trade policy and tariff policy. So, I'm not sure this changes a lot in terms of where we think the economy's going. So, I'm not entirely surprised by the decision, but I'm not sure that the decision means a lot for how we think about the U.S. economy.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the upshot there is – really no change from your perspective on the outlook for growth, for inflation or for Fed policy. Is that fair?Michael Gapen: That's right. So, it's still a slow growth, sticky inflation, patient Fed. It's just we're kind of moving around when that materializes. We pulled it into 2025 given the abrupt increase in in tariffs and the use of the IEEPA authority. And now it probably would come later if the lower court ruling stands.Michael Zezas: Right. So, sticking with the Fed. Several Fed speakers took to the airwaves last week, and it sounds like the Fed is still waiting for some of these public policy changes to have an effect on the real economy before they react. Is that a fair way to characterize it? And what are you watching at this point in terms of what determines your expectations for the Fed's policy path from here?Michael Gapen: Yeah, that's right. And I think, given that the appeals court has allowed the tariffs to stay in place as they review the lower court, the trade court's ruling, I think the Fed right now would say: Okay, status quo, nothing has changed.So, what does that mean? And what the Fed speakers said last week, and it also appeared in the minutes, is that the Fed expects that tariffs will do two things with respect to the Fed's mandate. It'll push inflation higher and puts risks around unemployment higher, right? So, the Fed is offsides, or likely to be offsides on both sides of its mandate.So, what Fed speakers have been saying is, well, when this happens, we will react to whichever side of the mandate we're furthest from our target. And their forecasts seem to say and are pretty consistent with ours, that the Fed expects inflation to rise first, but the labor market to soften later. So, what that means for our expectations for the Fed's policy path is they're likely to be on hold as they evaluate that inflation shock.And we'll keep the policy rate where it is to ensure that inflation expectations are stable. And then as the economy moderates and the labor market softens, then they can turn to cuts. But we don't think that happens until 2026. So, I don't think the ruling yesterday and the appeal process initiated today changes that.For now, the tariffs are still in place. The Fed's message is it's going to take us at least until probably September, if not later, to figure out which way we should move. Moving later and right is preferable for them than moving earlier and wrong.Michael Zezas: Got it. So bottom line, from our perspective, this court case was a big deal. However, because the administration has a lot of options to keep tariffs going in the direction that they want, not too much has really changed with our expectations for the outlook for either the tariff path and it's not going to fix to the economy.Michael Gapen: That's right. That's, I think what we know today. And we'll have to see how things evolve.Michael Zezas: Yep. They seem to be evolving every day. Mike, thanks for speaking with me.Michael Gapen: Thank you, Mike. It's been a pleasure. And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research & Public Policy Strategy, Michael Zezas, shares the answers to clients' top U.S. policy questions from Morgan Stanley's Japan Investor Summit.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research & Public Policy Strategy. Today, takeaways from our Japan Investor Summit. It's Wednesday, May 28th at 10:30am in New York. Last week, I attended our Japan Investor Summit in Tokyo: Two full days of panels on key investment themes and one-on-one meetings with clients from all parts of the Morgan Stanley franchise. During the meeting, Morgan Stanley Research launched its mid year economics and market strategy outlooks. So needless to say there was a healthy dialogue on investment strategy over those 48 hours. And I want to share what were the most frequent questions I received and, of course, our answers to those questions. As you could guess, U.S. tariff policy was a key focus. Could tariffs re-escalate? Or was the worst behind us; and if so, could investors set aside their concerns about the U.S. economy? It's a complicated issue so accordingly our answer is nuanced. On the one hand, the current state of play is mostly aligned where we thought tariff policy would be by end of year. It's just arrived much earlier. Higher overall U.S. tariffs with a skew toward higher tariffs on China relative to the rest of world, as the U.S. has less common ground with them and thus greater challenges in reaching a trade agreement with China in a timely manner. So that might imply we've arrived at the end point. But we think that's too simple of a way for investors to think about it. First there's plenty of potential for escalation from current levels as part of ongoing negotiations. And even if it's only temporary it could affect markets. Second, and perhaps more importantly, even though the U.S. cutting tariffs on China from very high levels recently brought down the effective tariff rate, it's still considerably higher than where we started the year. So one's market outlook will still have to account for the pressures of tariffs, which our economists translate into slower growth and higher recession risk this year. Another key concern – U.S. fiscal policy, and whether the U.S. would be embarking on a path to smaller deficits, in line with campaign promises. Or if the tax and spending bill making its way through Congress would keep that from happening. For investors we think it's most important to focus on the next year, because what happens beyond that is highly speculative. And we do not expect deficits to come down in the next year. Extending expiring tax cuts, and extending some new ones, albeit with some spending offsets, should modestly expand the deficit next year in our estimates; and some further deficit expansion should come from other factors baked into the budget, like higher interest payments. It's understandable these two questions came up, because we do think the answers are key to the outlook for markets. In particular, they inform some of the stronger views in our markets' outlook. For example, slower relative U.S. growth and the related potential for foreign investors to increasingly prefer their portfolios reflect their local currency should keep the U.S. dollar weakening – a key call our team started this year with and now continues. Another example, the shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Higher deficits and the uncertainty about inflation caused by tariffs should make for a steeper yield curve. So while we expect U.S. Treasury yields to fall, making for good returns for high grade bonds including corporate credit, the better returns might be in shorter maturities. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And if you like what you hear, tell a friend or a colleague about us today.