Podcasts about global head

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO of OnePoint BFG Financial, to break down the growing cracks in the Bank of Japan's decades-long rate repression experiment and what a yen reversal could mean for global bond markets. They dig into the historic move in Treasury yields following Kevin Warsh's press conference, rising credit stress in the AI trade (including Meta's off-balance-sheet financing and CoreWeave's blown-out credit default swaps), and why single-stock volatility may be signaling something bigger. They close out with a deep dive on gold — why central banks keep buying even as the metal cools off. Then, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami sit down with Jin Hennig, Managing Director and Global Head of Metals at CME Group, live from CME's New York office. They cover gold's pullback from its 2026 highs, the case for why central bank demand isn't going anywhere, the launch of CME's new 24/7 gold futures product, and what the September Fed meeting could mean for prices. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal MediaThe financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In this episode of the Full Circl Podcast, Ally Tyger-Doyle, Global Head of Inclusion at MIQ, shares her journey, the importance of diversity and inclusion, and advice for young professionals entering the workforce. Discover how her personal experiences and professional insights can inspire the next generation of leaders.

On CoinDesk's The Policy Protocol, Renato Mariotti is joined by guest host Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, for a conversation on the politics of the CLARITY Act, the state-vs-federal fight over prediction markets, and Wisconsin's invocation of an 1849 law that could bar prediction-market users from voting. And, they sit down with Rachel Anderica, Head of Global Operations at Anchorage Digital, who walks through Anchorage's agentic banking build inside its OCC trust and a "cashless reserves" model in partnership with JPMorgan. Plus, the hosts name the TradFi endorsers of CLARITY — BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs — as the Person of the Week. - This episode is brought to you by RealFi, a smarter stablecoin, backed by real-world assets. Find out more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ realfi.co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. - Ledn provides a secure and transparent way to access liquidity while maintaining your bitcoin holdings. Perfect 8 year track record of keeping clients assets safe. Don't sell your bitcoin. Get a bitcoin-backed loan. Check out your rate by using their loan calculator at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ledn.io⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - JPEG Trading is a global proprietary trading firm specializing in cryptocurrency and decentralized finance markets. From market structure and liquidity provision to quantitative trading strategies, JPEG Trading operates across the full spectrum of blockchain-based assets. Follow @jpegtrading on X to stay ahead of the latest developments in digital asset markets:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://x.com/jpegtrading⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Timecodes: 00:00 Cold Open: Wisconsin's 1849 Voting Law 01:13 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 01:29 Ari Redbord Joins as Guest Host 02:13 CLARITY's Law Enforcement Provisions 03:05 'Burn and Reissue': Getting Funds Back to Victims 04:19 The Politics: Why the Votes Aren't There 06:26 Prediction Markets and the CFTC Battle 08:04 Wisconsin's 1849 Law and the Right to Vote 09:53 Federalism, Circuit Splits, and the Road to SCOTUS 11:10 The HFSC Scam Report and AI at Scale 14:04 Rachel Anderika of Anchorage Digital Joins 14:34 Who's Liable When an Agent Moves Money? 18:56 OCC Rulemaking, Secondary Markets, and Sanctions 20:40 'Cashless Reserves' with JPMorgan Tokenized Funds 22:53 Trash Talk: The Skinny Master Account 24:29 Person of the Week: The TradFi Endorsers of CLARITY

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE On today's show, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a wild Thursday in the markets: Microsoft up 15% and Meta down 9% post-earnings, a huge bounce in semis and memory names, and software getting crushed. Guy makes the case that this price action looks more like a topping formation than a bottom. They dig into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting commentary and the bond market selloff it triggered, Bank of Japan intervention on the yen (and what it could mean for volatility), the dollar's potential breakout, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's pullback from all-time highs, China's AI and chip progress and what it means for KWEB, and where gold goes next after holding the $4,000 level. Plus, Dan sits down with Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Equity, FX and Alternative Products at CME Group, to talk about the newly launched Single Stock Futures — how they work, why CME launched them now during earnings season, and how traders can use them alongside stocks, ETFs, and options for risk management. Show Notes AI Lowers Wages But Doesn't Cut Jobs (Apollo) Why the bond market is doubting Fed chairman Warsh (Axios) FactSet Insight (FactSet) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

You might be ready for the summer, but so are cybercriminals. Learn about the latest scams of the season and how to fight back. We kick off the show with Leyla Bilge, Global Head of Scam Research for Norton. Amazon Luna has a new game called Courtroom Chaos starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. The AI-powered game is free to play for Amazon Prime members. I sit down with JC Connors, Senior Leader of Amazon Games. Also on Tech It Out, if you're still paying your local wireless provider for out-of-country cellular access, you're likely coming home to a massive bill. Instead, learn about eSIMs and Airalo, with Emma Brooks, Growth Director for North America at Airalo.Thank you to Visa, Norton, and SanDisk for your incredible support. Get a huge discount on Norton anti-malware at norton.com/techitout

Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd explains why the recent AI infrastructure selloff may reflect technical pressures, not weakening fundamentals.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.Today: Are investors misreading the AI infrastructure selloff?It's Thursday, July 30th, at 10am in New York.The recent selloff in AI infrastructure stocks has raised a familiar question: Is the buildout running ahead of real demand? The market is pulling back and we think that reflects profit-taking, crowded positioning, and forced selling by investors. This is not about weaker fundamentals. But the selloff has brought to light three key concerns, which we think the market is overplaying.The first concern is how much enterprises are willing to pay for AI. The median enterprise employee currently generates less than $11 a month in token spending. That's the fee paid when an AI model processes a request and generates a response.We think there is room for that to increase. From the employer's perspective the economics are compelling. Across workplace applications, the cost to execute the economic task would be $2-$5. And that could save an enterprise $55. That to us suggests companies are likely to spend more, not less, on AI over time.The second debate centers on efficient models, including competitive models developed in China.  And here, policy responses both from the U.S. and China can have an impact as well. Some investors worry that better efficiency means less computing demand. But we see the opposite risk. This is a classic example of Jevons paradox: When something becomes cheaper or more efficient to use, people use more of it. In AI, lower costs can attract more users, encourage more frequent use, and make complicated applications more economical. The scale is striking. Industry leaders estimate that compute demand could double every six months, which would amount to more than a thousand-fold increase in compute over five years. Hyperscalers could quadruple available power capacity to roughly 120 gigawatts by 2028, from about 30 gigawatts in 2025.And that leads to the third debate – whether data centers can secure enough power to keep expanding. It's a valid concern. In the U.S., facilities under construction and contracted grid capacity cover about 30 gigawatts. That's less than half the 68 gigawatts of power that data centers are likely to need from 2026 through 2028. Grid connections can take five to seven years in some regions. Skilled electricians, welders, and pipefitters are in short supply. And local opposition is increasing as communities debate electricity bills, tax incentives, and who should pay for grid upgrades.These are real obstacles, but we view them as delays rather than dead ends. Onsite generation, fuel cells, energy storage, natural gas turbines, and the conversion of existing high-power sites could close the gap, at least partially.We believe much of the recent weakness in AI infrastructure has been driven by technical factors rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals. As AI becomes more capable and cheaper to use, demand for intelligence, compute, and power is likely to keep rising. The global market is fragmented as policy decisions in the U.S. and China shape how growth unfolds. But strong economics should support continued investment.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Lauren Hochfelder is Head of Global Real Assets at Morgan Stanley, where she oversees a team of 300 investment professionals across 13 countries, managing $80 billion across real estate, infrastructure, equity and credit. Lauren joined Morgan Stanley as an investment banking analyst directly out of Yale 26 years ago and has spent her entire career at the firm, helping build one of the industry's leading platforms.   Our conversation traces Lauren's journey from analyst to Global Head and the evolution of Morgan Stanley's real estate business before, during, and after the Global Financial Crisis. We cover the firm's thematic approach to investing behind structural demand tailwinds, combination of global perspectives and on-the-ground teams, operational improvements to assets, portfolio construction, and themes across industrial real estate and infrastructure, senior housing, and net lease properties. We also touch on riskier areas of real estate and Lauren's new role adding infrastructure to her real estate oversight.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)  

Stephen Grootes speaks to Xhanti Payi, economist and strategist at Inani Strategies about the governance crisis at the Public Investment Corporation, the appointment of a new board, and what the leadership shake-up could mean for investor confidence and the management of South Africa’s R3.7 trillion public pension fund. In other interviews, Juan Carlos Artigas, the Global Head of Research at World Gold Council talks about the World Gold Council’s latest findings, which show central banks bought far less gold at the start of the year than previously estimated, despite a strong rebound in purchases during the second quarter. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What if the reason you're still buried in emails has nothing to do with how many hours are in your day? Jordin McEntire sits down with Jackie Brown, Global Head of HR at SupportDDS, who spent years working alongside doctors at a DSO with 75 practices and 200 clinicians. She kept seeing the same thing play out. Owners were still managing their own schedules, still answering their own emails, long after they'd outgrown that job. Jackie explains why she built the Executive Excellence Academy to train executive assistants who think ahead of problems instead of just reacting to them, and why SupportDDS holds turnover down to 6.2% when the industry average runs far higher. She breaks down what real support actually looks like, from protecting an owner's priorities to running daily check-ins that keep the whole day on track, and what changes for a practice once that kind of support is finally in place.  

Welcome back to the Alt Goes Mainstream podcast.We sat down with Kyle Kniffen, Managing Director, Global Head of Alternatives, Third Party Wealth at Goldman Sachs. We were live from Berlin, which becomes the “capital of private capital” in June as private equity industry leaders make the annual pilgrimage to the city for one of the marquee private equity conferences, SuperReturn Berlin.With Prosek Partners and former Bloomberg TV journalist Deirdre Bolton as my producer, along with her team, we took over a Tiny Space cabin to hold big conversations with some of the industry's leading alternative asset managers.A little over two years ago, I wrote on AGM about how, at $456B in AUM in alternatives, Goldman Sachs was a “sleeping giant” in private markets. In reality, Goldman is anything but a sleeping giant in private markets, having started its private equity business in 1984 and earning the distinction of being a top-5 alternatives manager by AUM across both traditional and alternative asset managers.Today, Goldman has grown its alternatives business to over $625B in AUM.The firm has expanded its platform with the acquisition of Industry Ventures and a partnership with T. Rowe Price to deliver public and private markets solutions to the wealth channel, and, most recently, the creation of its Alternative Investment Platform to provide HNW clients with direct access to private companies.The evolution of Goldman's Alternatives business reflects a thoughtful, measured approach to understanding the needs of wealth channel investors and finding the utility and purpose of strategy, product, and product structure.That was much of the focus of the conversation Kyle and I had in Berlin. We discussed the objective and utility of private markets in a portfolio. We covered:The growth of evergreen funds.Why evergreens are the product structure of choice.Why are evergreens also appealing to institutional allocators, insurance companies, and UHNW investors?How GPs and LPs are approaching LP composition to evergreen vehicles.The next wave of product innovation.The build, buy, partner framework Why Goldman is so excited about the GeoWealth partnership and what the future of model portfolios look like.What is not known but should be known about the Goldman Alternatives franchise.BioKyle Kniffen is a managing director in the Client Solutions Group within Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He serves as global head of Alternatives for Third Party Wealth (TPW), overseeing client strategy for the firm's TPW clients globally, delivering the power of the Alternatives investing platform to a broad set of individual investors through our partnerships with financial intermediary clients and their advisors, including Private Banks, Broker-Dealers, RIAs and other distribution platforms. Kyle partners closely with leadership across our Alternatives franchise to develop products that meet our clients' evolving needs. He is also co-chair of the AWM Global Distribution Working Group.Prior to this role, Kyle was in Alternative Capital Markets (ACM), serving as head of ACM for Goldman Sachs Ayco and leading coverage for One Goldman Sachs financial sponsors globally. He joined Goldman Sachs in 2018 as a vice president in ACM and was named managing director in 2021.Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, Kyle led a variety of distribution and product management teams for Bank of America's Alternative Investment Group within their Global Wealth and Investment Management division.Kyle is a board member for the Institute of Portfolio Alternatives (IPA), and a member of The Economic Club of New York. Kyle earned a BA from Gettysburg College.Thanks, Kyle, for sharing your wisdom, expertise, and passion about private markets and serving the wealth channel.Show Notes00:00 AGM Live from SuperReturn Berlin00:22 Meet Kyle Kniffin01:10 Wealth Meets Private Markets01:37 Big Pools Little Allocation02:24 Alt Strategies Explosion03:04 Lessons from Hedge Funds03:34 Start with Client Goals03:53 Risk Liquidity Tradeoffs04:10 Portfolio Utility First04:25 Holistic Private Markets04:44 Fit and Terms Matter05:07 Setting Expectations05:32 Product Innovation Shift05:52 Evergreens and Flexibility06:10 Monthly Access and Tactics06:39 Evergreen Growth Rates06:45 Education and Dispersion07:15 Why Evergreens Exist07:41 Diversification Lower Minimums08:04 Operational Simplicity08:21 Evergreen Nuance Phase One08:47 Goldman in Third Party Wealth09:26 Institutions Buying Evergreens10:31 LP Mix and Liquidity Caps11:36 Institutionalizing Wealth Platforms13:29 Goldman Platform Advantage14:46 Feeding the Evergreen Engine15:13 GeoWealth and Model Portfolios15:45 T Rowe Price Collaboration16:12 Build vs Buy Partner Balance16:42 Industry Ventures Acquisition17:33 Goldman Alts Heritage18:35 Pioneering GP Stakes19:45 Secondaries Since 199820:12 Apex of Private Markets21:08 Will Secondaries Be Core21:48 Max Flexibility for Wealth22:42 Customization vs Scale23:16 Flagships Then Bespoke23:49 Lessons from Private Wealth25:10 Broader Menu of Privates25:34 Closing Thoughts 

Stephen Grootes speaks to Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Head of Research at the World Gold Council, about the Council’s latest findings, which show central banks bought far less gold at the start of the year than previously estimated, despite a strong rebound in purchases during the second quarter. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How much runway does the world's energy market still have? Our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats joins our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets to explain what's causing pressure beyond renewed tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today – talking about the recent volatility and the direction ahead for oil.It's Wednesday, July 29th at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you again. We haven't talked for a little while on this program. But oil is once again back in the headlines and it's moving around.So maybe to just jump right into things, as you look at the lay of the land in global energy markets at the moment, what's been happening? What are you telling clients?Martijn Rats: Okay. Well, we've had a large amount of volatility, over the last couple of weeks. If you roll the clock back, sort of, to the beginning of June. In the beginning of June, it started to become clear that already some more oil was leaking out of the Strait of Hormuz than perhaps, many of us anticipated at the time.But that data has been confirmed since then. And then, of course, in the middle of June, we got the memorandum of understanding. And after that, roughly 100-150 million barrels a day or so that was behind the Strait of Hormuz got cleared. And that…Andrew Sheets: These were tankers that were stuck there during the conflict, all came out.Martijn Rats: Absolutely. Laden tankers that were there; had just basically turned into floating storage for a good couple of months. They all cleared out, and that actually created a bit of a glut, in the sense that all of a sudden, the refiners of this world had a lot of crude to absorb. And we saw many indications of physical looseness in the market, physical differentials, calendar spreads.All sorts of indicators pointed that physically there was a lot of oil, temporarily to be absorbed. And the spot price of Brent fell to $70. And that looked to be the new direction of travel. In principle, the world is not short of oil if you take the geopolitics out of it.So, for a while it, it looked bearish. But then a new set of disruptions came, and the military conflict restarted, and we've had 13 days of overnight bombing. And with that also the flow through the Strait of Hormuz diminished again. And we are back in the last, sort of, week, 10 days to very, very low levels. The same levels we had in March.The flow through the strait is not exactly zero. But it's sort of 2-3 million barrels a day, sort of, down 80 percent to 90 percent of what it was before the conflict. And with that, prices have rallied. But on top of that, last week it looked like the military activity could really scale up. And for a couple of days, the markets priced that in.But then we have other choke points to take into account now. Not only Hormuz, but the Bab el-Mandeb, the CPC terminal, the issues in global refining. Altogether, it's been a tremendously volatile period. So, we're on the whole leaning towards the constructive side because there are so many disruptions in the system. But it's a very hard one to call at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So Martijn, let's talk about those other disruptions besides just the Strait of Hormuz. Because yeah, it's not just the Strait of Hormuz anymore. We have issues in the Red Sea. You have ongoing issues with Russian energy infrastructure that's being attacked by Ukraine. Just what are these other factors that are out there? And how much do they matter relative to, you know, how many ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz?Martijn Rats: Yeah. They matter a lot, and you can see that expressed in the price of refined product more than the price of crude. If you look at the main global benchmark for the price of diesel, which is arguably the ICE gas-oil contract, which are diesel barges delivered in Rotterdam or in the wider ARA area, it's trading at about $1,200 a ton, which is sort of $150-$160 per barrel.That's where you see the tightness. And so out of the total end user price, the refiners are capturing more at the moment than the crude suppliers. But what end users pay is not $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil, it's $1,200 a ton for diesel. And that is a very high price. Now, that is a result effectively of four major issues that the oil market has to deal with.One of them is Hormuz, as just discussed. But then we come to these other three. And these other three are the Bab el-Mandeb, which is the strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula that provides entry and exit to the Red Sea. That strait has gained in importance because Saudi Arabia has been redirecting about 4 million barrels a day of crude oil supply that was previously exported via Hormuz. Now through the East-West Pipeline to a terminal near a city called Yanbu, from where it is loaded and mostly sails down south through the Bab el-Mandab to refineries in Asia.The Bab el-Mandab is a strait that is effectively controlled by the Houthis, which is an Iran-aligned group that controls much of Yemen. And already in [20]24, earlier in [20]25, they've been very effective, controlling tanker traffic through that strait. And in the last sort of week or so, they have said that they will no longer allow Saudi tankers to sail out. And also, that group has executed drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure near the Jazan refinery, near the Yanbu terminal, and overnight also the Abqaiq facility, which is a large oil processing plant.So, this whole Red Sea situation puts at risk something like an incremental 3.5 million barrels a day of crude.Then we've had to deal with issues at the CPC terminal, which is again, also a very large oil export terminal. About 1.5-2 million barrels a day of crude is exported from CPC, which is a terminal near the Russian city of Novorossiysk.Ukraine has been executing drone attacks on tankers that have been trying to load from the CPC terminal. Much of last week, the CPC terminal was out. Over the last 24 hours, a few tankers have loaded again, but it's very unreliable. It's on again, off again. It's a very disrupted flow. In and of itself, a single terminal loading 1.5-2 million barrels a day is very, very large. So, we care.And then the third issue that the oil market has been dealing with, and this also comes back to this issue about these refined product prices, is very severe tightness in the global refining system. That is an issue of some refineries can't export because they're behind the Strait of Hormuz again.So, you can say, "Well, isn't that; that's sort of the same problem?" But nevertheless, it expresses it somewhere else. It's partly a problem of, sort of, the Chinese refinery system running very low. But it's recently mostly been driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. And by now, something like 60 percent of the Russian refining system is out.And with that, exports of refined products have declined very significantly. There's a gasoline export ban. There's a diesel export ban from Russia. Russia used to be a very large diesel exporter. That is now down to practically zero. And with that, refined product markets have rallied severely on top of the price of crude.Andrew Sheets: And I think that's interesting [be]cause when we think about the economic impact of oil, while, you know, the price of oil per barrel is often the most kind of visible marker that we have – it's often the refined product that we actually use. You know, a truck is running on diesel. It's not running on crude oil.And, you know, that cost of diesel, of jet fuel, of gasoline, you know, that is the thing that can often really affect business margins. And the ability to operate and move product around. So, I mean, just give a sense like how much have those diesel prices gone up? And how much further could they rise if you're operating, you know, a trucking company in Europe?Martijn Rats: Yeah. Look, when supply is inherently scarce, we often ask the question – what is the demand destruction price, right? If you can't supply the stuff quick enough, the physical oil market, be it crude or refined product, must balance.There are a finite number of molecules in the system, and we can store them for a bit. We can take them out of storage. But when you take storage into account, molecules can't disappear out of nowhere. And they can't create it out of nowhere either. So, the system must balance. And if you can't supply it quick enough, the only way to balance sometimes is through demand destruction.And then we ask the question, what is the price that effectively causes that to happen? And if you look historically, that is often expressed in crude, something like $140-$150 a barrel. We've seen that before. But those were occasions where refining was not an issue. And then crude needs to do the heavy lifting to drive prices higher.What we're having at the moment is that refined products need to do it. And so, from experience earlier in the year, back in 2022, some other occasions, the price that destroys diesel demand is probably in the order of $1,400 a ton. In the diesel market, we use tons rather than barrels for historical reasons. Just to make it easy.But it's about $1,400 a ton, which is about sort of, you know, like $180-$190 per barrel. That really stops diesel demand in its track. At the moment, we're $1,230-$1,240, that sort of level. And so, we are getting close. There is probably a little bit more to go, like another 5 percent, 10 percent, that sort of thing, before you really hit some exceptionally high levels.But the diesel price, I would argue, is doing exactly that. It's searching for this demand destruction price. It's just if you then take that sort of $160 diesel that we have at the moment, how much do the refiners get versus how much do the crude producers get?At the moment, the refiners are getting $65- $70 out of that, leaving comparatively little for the crude supplier. But the refined product price is the channel by which the economy is impacted and ultimately also by which demand is eroded.Andrew Sheets: When we're talking about demand destruction, we're talking about at what price does a trucking company not operate, does not drive as much, you know, does not, you know... We're talking about less activity. And inherently that is, I think a risk to growth. But especially risk to growth in Europe where the starting point for growth is already pretty weak.Martijn Rats: Yes. So, we are watching as much, how the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refiners are playing out as we are watching, sort of, the Strait of Hormuz.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the last thing I wanted to talk to you about is, you know, we've been talking about the Iran conflict since late February. And, you know, we're sitting here in late July. And it's clear that, you know, there was a small normalization in flows as you talked about. But we're back to a place where those flows are nowhere near normal.And I think the question on everybody's mind is how much longer can this go on before there's a much larger shock to energy prices?Now, again, you've mentioned we're already seeing some of that shock to diesel, but, you know, a much bigger disruption. What's your current thinking on how much runway the energy system still has?Martijn Rats: Yeah. It's an excellent question, and it's turned out to be fiendishly hard to answer. My gut feel based on how the data is behaving, based on what we know from history: If this lasts another, sort of, month or two, three, then it's hard to argue that by then the buffers in the system will not have been completely exhausted.The reason why I think oil analysts have lost a degree of confidence in forecasting this accurately is that there's a lot of unexplained oil that does require some explanation. If you look at the cumulative amount of supply loss from the Middle East since the start of this conflict, easily over 1.5 billion barrels. 1.5 billion barrels in 150 days is an enormous amount.And yet, the inventory draws that we can find in observable data, they are at best a third of that, maybe 0.5 billion barrels. And so, there's another billion barrels where you say, "Yeah, we had that last year, but we don't have this this year.”How did we solve that billion-barrel problem? And you can say, "Well, we were a bit oversupplied going into it," and a few other things. But you, sort of, have to conclude, and I think this is also, you know, talking to clients and investors, other market participants. I think this is sort of collectively we're discovering this is that this system of, like, unobservable inventories has to be way bigger.That is either inventories like in the supply chain, inventories at customers end, or in countries where we generally just have very little data anyway, like in China. And so, the system has been behaving as if already in [20]24 and [20]25 actually, we were putting a lot of oil into these, in storages that are hard to observe – because in that period we had the opposite problem.We were forecasting large inventory builds, and we couldn't find them all. And now we're forecasting large draws, and we haven't been able to find them all. And so, the system has been behaving as this; the unobservable part of the inventories are way larger.And… But at some point, they also run out. But because they're hard to observe, we don't know when. And I would guess if we're getting towards the end of the summer by August-September, and we're still in this situation? Yeah, then we're going into the winter. Like, you know, German households objectively have little storage of heating oil.Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm.Martijn Rats: And they need to be rebuilt. And there are a few examples where we do know what customers are doing with their inventories, and they point to a picture where, yeah, by the end of the summer, like, we're running on fumes. And so, look, this – we've been able to patch this up. But it can't go on forever.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, always a pleasure to, to catch up with you and talk energy markets.Martijn Rats: Nice to talk to you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us.And please share with a friend or colleague today.

For three decades, most of Wall Street has treated energy and commodities as a rounding error, or as a small slice of the portfolio rather than the physical foundation everything else runs on. But in mid-2026, with the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, tankers burning in the Red and Black Seas, and nearly half of Russia's refining capacity knocked offline, that complacency is being tested in real time. The noise around increasing crude oil prices is loud, but this week's guest argues that the signal beneath it – the decline of refined products like diesel and jet fuel – is already sounding the alarm bells of a world in crisis. In this episode, Nate is joined by Jeff Currie for a wide-boundary look at what happens when the buffers that have suppressed energy price signals for fifty years finally run dry. Using his decades of experience as a former commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs and as a current senior advisor at The Carlyle Group, Jeff walks through why the "crack spread" between crude and refined products just hit its highest level in three decades. He also describes why draining strategic reserves is, in actuality, simply a bet that scarcity can be avoided rather than solved – in Currie's eyes, the West's refusal to admit scarcity since the 70s has left it structurally unprepared, particularly compared to China's security-driven build-out of nuclear, solar, and battery capacity. He also lays out the "Grand Bargain" underlying the postwar dollar system, wherein the U.S. protects global sea lanes in exchange for global trade running through New York. Jeff explains why a failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could unravel this arrangement, bringing forward consequences that would land hardest on middle-class Americans' access to credit and consumption. Is the world entering a new commodity supercycle driven by scarcity and deglobalization, or is the market going to keep shrugging off these shocks? What might it mean for ordinary people if the credit and dollar system that has funded American consumption for eighty years starts to break down? And if, as Jeff argues, we are only in "the foothills of the Himalayas," how much higher does this climb go before societies are forced to reckon with the physical limits behind the price signals? (Conversation recorded on July 23rd, 2026)   About Jeff Currie: Jeff Currie is the Chief Strategy Officer at Altis Partners. Previously, Jeff served as Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and currently serves as a Senior Advisor to the firm. Jeff's analysis focuses on the energy and commodity markets and the supply chain central to an energy transition. Jeff is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market strategists on Wall Street, known for advising clients through the commodity "super cycle" of the 2000s, the shale supply shock of the 2010s, and most recently the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

Listen for instant reaction and analysis of megacap tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. Meta Platforms gave a disappointing revenue forecast for the current quarter, intensifying investor concerns about the social media giant’s unprecedented spending on artificial intelligence and sending shares lower afterhours. Microsoft’s cloud unit grew at the fastest pace in four years, suggesting that the company’s computing infrastructure and artificial intelligence services continue to make inroads with businesses. Shares of Microsoft rose in extended trading. Qualcomm, the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market. The company’s stock fell afterhours. To break down all of this, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: Ed Ludlow, Host, Bloomberg Tech Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Technology Research, Bloomberg Intelligence See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How will artificial intelligence reshape the future of work—and will it create enough opportunities for the next generation?Over the next decade, 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the workforce, but only around 400 million jobs are currently projected to be available. In this episode, host Tanvir Gill explores whether AI could help close that gap—or make the challenge even greater.Entrepreneur and content creator, Marina Mogilko, explains how workers can build an advantage through AI systems, agents and “vibe coding.”Mohamed Eissa, IFC Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Venture Capital and Direct Technology Investments, examines how AI could transform businesses and create opportunities across emerging markets.Sharat Raghavan, Director of Data Science and Research at LinkedIn, shares what their data reveals about changing jobs, rising skills and the future of career progression.Timestamps[00:00] Will AI make or take the next billion jobs?[00:48] What Nairobi's tech community thinks[02:51] Marina Mogilko on vibe coding and AI as opportunity[05:06] AI and the future of content creation[08:00] The top skill for an AI economy[09:29] Introductions: Sharat Raghavan from LinkedIn and Mohamed Eissa from IFC[13:04] Human skills and AI entrepreneurship[14:40] AI opportunities in emerging markets[16:25] Where jobs are growing[17:25] AI for development: healthcare in Africa[18:35] The changing career ladder[21:44] AI disruption: reality or hype?[25:27] AI, SMEs and the missing middle[26:23] How to future-proof a career

Listen for instant reaction and analysis of megacap tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. Meta Platforms gave a disappointing revenue forecast for the current quarter, intensifying investor concerns about the social media giant’s unprecedented spending on artificial intelligence and sending shares lower afterhours. Microsoft’s cloud unit grew at the fastest pace in four years, suggesting that the company’s computing infrastructure and artificial intelligence services continue to make inroads with businesses. Shares of Microsoft rose in extended trading. Qualcomm, the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market. The company’s stock fell afterhours. To break down all of this, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: Ed Ludlow, Host, Bloomberg Tech Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Technology Research, Bloomberg Intelligence See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Global Insight episode of the On Aon podcast, Aon leaders examine why extreme heat is emerging as a critical business challenge that demands greater visibility, preparedness and investment. Against the backdrop of heat waves and wildfires across North America and Europe, the discussion explores how heat can create significant financial and operational impacts across organizations, even when physical damage is limited or unseen. The conversation highlights how heat can disrupt workforce productivity, energy systems, infrastructure, supply chains and business continuity simultaneously. It also explores how organizations can use climate analytics, engineering insight, scenario planning and risk transfer to better understand exposure, make more informed capital decisions and build resilience that helps them stay ahead of evolving climate risks. Key Takeaways:        Extreme heat is becoming a serious business risk. Its impact extends well beyond employee wellbeing, creating challenges across operations, supply chains, infrastructure, energy systems and financial performance. Organizations need a clearer understanding of how heat affects their facilities, suppliers, workforce's performance and critical dependencies across their value chain. Climate analytics, risk engineering, adaptation planning and risk transfer can help organizations prioritize investments, protect operations and stay ahead of increasingly frequent heat-related disruptions. Experts in this episode:      Liz Henderson, Global Head of Climate Risk Advisory, Aon Josh Turner, Climate Advisory Product Manager, Aon Key Moments:        (02:20) Why extreme heat is rising on leadership agendas, including the growing financial exposure associated with higher temperatures, aging infrastructure and more frequent heat events.     (6:05) How heat creates cascading business impacts, from workforce productivity and construction delays to equipment performance, energy demand, cooling costs and transportation disruption. (20:20) How organizations can move from awareness to action through exposure analysis, mitigation and adaptation planning and risk transfer strategies that support long-term resilience. Soundbites:        Liz Henderson:   “It's a risk amplifier in general. So across different industries like the food industry or construction, they might be worried about worker productivity, business downtime, crop impacts. And the underlying cause of those things is climate change risks and things like extreme heat.” Josh Turner:   “Extreme heat waves are becoming more common as the climate is shifting in ways that make historical averages a pretty unreliable guide for planning.”  

In this episode of the IQVIA MedTech Business Insights Podcast, Michelle Edwards speaks with Arvind Ramadore, Global Head of Innovations for Robotic Surgery Technologies at Medtronic, to discuss how robotics and AI are reshaping the future of surgery. Their conversation explores the opportunities and challenges facing the industry, from evidence generation and reimbursement to regulation, digital ecosystems and the path toward greater surgical autonomy.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week's interest rate decision by the Fed.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now. It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9:30am in New York. Will the Fed display patience, or has it run out of patience? That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway. We believe the former. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy, economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that? Michael Gapen: Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June. And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week, we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting. And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated. So, in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about 188,000 per month. And I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate. The subsequent employment data changed that view. Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed. So, the labor market doesn't look quite as robust. Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal about disinflation. So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher. We'll see where that goes. But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing. So, we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here. So, with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June. So, we think the right thing... Or what we think the Fed will do is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information. If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold. If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they can move to rate hikes later this year. But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June. Matthew Hornbach: Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting and the September meeting. If memory serves, at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points… Michael Gapen: That's right. Matthew Hornbach: Payroll, CPI, and so on. Michael Gapen: That's right. The gap between the July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar. Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that. But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September. Matthew Hornbach: If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting, what is the case for hiking rates in July? How would you think about that perspective? Michael Gapen: I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now. One is recent volatility and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher. Maybe it convinces you – you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario, and inflation will not dissipate. Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument. And we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation, where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market. We eased last year. Let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year. So, it's not about inflation in hand, it's about your view of risks around inflation. Another, I think, and to me, this is the most important one, is maybe Warsh wants a regime change in the reaction function. In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2 percent target. Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions. And maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2 percent more quickly. So, I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function, and Warsh is bringing a new one. And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is. And he could reveal it this week as being in a direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else. Matthew Hornbach: Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all. And in fact, I think that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed will react to higher energy prices. As energy prices have gone up, so have bond yields. The relationship between those two asset prices are very strong. And usually what that suggests is if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise, it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices. If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher, that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase. That just hasn't been the case, and so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed. But I guess we'll see. Only time will tell. And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is – we'll need some communication from the Fed. And maybe that's where I want to go next with you – is on communication. It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression? How do you think about communication? And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference… What do you think about press conferences going forward? Michael Gapen: I do think you're right. I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications. I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and/or interviews given recently. And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh as the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know. I will say, though, that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past. So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. On the press conference, boy, would that be a change. I've been of the view that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course, where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year. So, I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all. But if we don't have them… The way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less, there will be a vacuum out there to some degree. So, if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative, whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is. Vacuums are going to get filled. The Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more. Maybe that drives volatility more. I guess it would depend on the situation, but I think pulling press conferences would be a major surprise. I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.How would you read it? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function, rightly or wrongly. Which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices. Investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices. Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell. If we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which looks very likely, investors are going to pay attention to every nuance and every shift in the chairman's tone. How he chooses to address certain questions versus others—or whether he chooses to address them at all—will be important for market participants and how they invest in the bond and currency markets. With that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk. I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole symposium. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Thanks for having me on. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Global Head of ETFs Ally Wallace breaks down the firm's newly launched Ether and Solana ETFs from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Wallace explains why Morgan Stanley priced all three of its crypto products at 14 basis points — the cheapest on the market — and how its April Bitcoin ETF became the firm's most successful launch ever. And, she unpacks the staking component of the new proof-of-stake products, including Morgan Stanley's decision to pass back 100% of staking rewards to investors. - 00:00 Morgan Stanley Launches Ether and Solana ETFs 00:17 Launching Into a Subdued Crypto Market 00:57 Bitcoin ETF Pulls In $400M, MS's Best Launch Ever 01:27 Competing at 14 Basis Points, the Cheapest on the Market 02:15 The First Bank-Owned Asset Manager in the Space 02:33 Passing Back 100% of Staking Rewards 03:02 How the Staking Economics Work 03:52 Positioning Solana and ETH in Portfolios 04:46 Why Morgan Stanley Chose CoinDesk Benchmarks 05:28 Coinbase and BNY Mellon on Custody

TA leaders are under real pressure to keep up with AI, new tools, and what they think other employers are doing. In that rush, a lot of functions are spending heavily on new technology without first understanding whether their existing processes are working, only to find the real problem was something no platform could have fixed. Getting this right means doing the internal work first, auditing what's already in place, and being honest about organizational readiness. So what does it take to turn the lens inward before looking outward? My guest this week is Jalpa Trivedi, an experienced Global Head of TA who has built and centralized TA functions across more than 30 countries. In our conversation, she shares why the internal audit matters more than the technology choice, how to build TA foundations that hold across different markets, and how to approach AI adoption with the governance it requires. In the interview, we discuss: The questions TA leaders aren't asking about their own function. Investing in technology that solves the wrong problem -The 80/20 approach to centralizing TA across markets -Building an EVP on evidence, not assumptions -What persuades leadership to back a TA investment -Why the biggest AI risk isn't falling behind -Five data privacy questions to ask before signing with an AI vendor -Where the dividing line falls between AI and human judgment -What does the future look like? A full transcript will appear here shortly. Follow This Podcast on Apple Podcasts Follow this Podcast on Spotify

Institutional investors are balancing rapid market change with the need to make disciplined, long-term investment decisions. As regulations evolve, technology advances, and geopolitical events influence capital flows, investors are balancing opportunity with operational discipline. In this episode, Paul Fahey speaks with Gerard Walsh, Global Head of Market Solutions, Banking and Markets at Northern Trust, about the forces shaping institutional investing today. They explore how geopolitical developments are influencing investment decisions, why operational resilience has become a growing priority, what organizations should consider as more markets move toward T+1 settlement, and how artificial intelligence is being applied to risk management, cybersecurity, and decision support.  Gerard also shares why strategy, thoughtful execution, and experienced human judgment continue to play an essential role alongside advancing technology. Key takeaways: How geopolitical events are influencing institutional investment decisions and capital allocation worldwide Why operational resilience and risk management have become priorities for large investment organizations What investors should prepare for as more global markets transition toward T+1 settlement cycles Practical examples of artificial intelligence improving cybersecurity, risk monitoring, and operations Why experienced human judgment remains essential alongside AI-driven decision support And more! Connect with Gerard Walsh: LinkedIn: Gerard Walsh About Gerard Walsh: Northern Trust: Gerard Walsh

Sulabh Agarwal, Managing Director and Global Head of Payments at Accenture, helps financial institutions and organisations worldwide navigate the rapidly evolving payments landscape. He works with clients to drive innovation, modernise payment systems, and manage operational risk across the payments value chain. Leading teams across Europe, North America, and Growth Markets, Sulabh oversees a global practice of approximately 5,000 professionals.On The Menu:Why reinventing yourself every two years keeps you sharpDigital euro vs digital dollar: Europe's CBDC edgeReal-time payments and the shrinking fraud detection windowWhat India's UPI got right that others haven'tSeparating genuine fintech innovation from industry noiseWhy loyalty and rewards are becoming payment differentiatorsHow AI agents will soon pick your payment method

Looking at clues from the past, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets examines how the recurring themes – from deregulation to volatility – are shaping markets and why every cycle still takes its own path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, what can Odysseus teach us about investing? It's Friday, July 24th at 2pm in London.Like many of you, this week I saw The Odyssey. The enduring appeal of this story more than 2,700 years after it was composed is a reminder that some themes are universal. Pride, resourcefulness, determination, self-control, or the lack thereof, mattered to both an ancient Greek dinner party and resonate with anybody investing today.But drawing lessons from the past is also tricky. We do not have that much financial history, and markets contain too many variables for the same combination to align twice. Some judgment, art, and dare we say storytelling is always involved in deciding which historical periods best describe the present. Those disclaimers aside, we've argued in our year ahead outlook that 1997 to 1998 and 2005 to 2006 are some of the most useful templates for the current backdrop.That remains our view. They suggest a cycle that has further to run, equities outperforming credit, and a preference to own volatility. Both of these periods were defined by a sharp rise in corporate activity. That is certainly what we're seeing today.We forecast U.S. capital expenditure to rise 23 percent in 2026, and 26 percent in 2027. AI is the biggest driver of this spending but build-outs in energy infrastructure are also playing a role. And increased corporate CapEx is certainly a global story, especially in Asia.Then there's M&A, which also rose significantly in these two past historical periods. As recently as early 2024, global M&A volumes were unusually depressed, some of the lowest levels in over 30 years, adjusted for economic size. But that's no longer the case. And more recently, M&A is currently running up 64 percent relative to a year ago.Important current macroeconomic data also looks somewhat similar to these past two periods. The current levels of U.S. core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and the 10-year yield are pretty close to the averages seen in 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2006.And the U.S. 2s10s yield curve, well, it broadly flattened then, and it has broadly been flattening today. A third similarity, maybe less obvious but no less important, is deregulation. Both 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 saw significant financial deregulation. And we're seeing that again now. From the Basel Endgame to NAIC risk weights to Solvency II changes to savings reforms in Europe, Korea, and elsewhere, the current trend appears to be on a firmly deregulatory path.Even more simply, 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 provide interesting narrative bookends to two ways that I often hear the current environment being described. The late '90s? Well, that was defined by rising excitement around a transformational new technology – then the internet – and the prospect of a more productive future. Sound familiar? And the mid-2000s? Well, that was defined by a very unequal economy and rising consumer stress – but growth that was still supported by a seemingly inexhaustible investment demand from a rising market force. Then that force was emerging markets. Today, it's AI. Again, somewhat familiar. If these periods serve as a guide, the cycle probably has further to run, and corporate aggression should favor equities over credit.But if we learn anything from the trials of Odysseus, the journey can throw up plenty of surprises along the way. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Sebastien Page, Head of Global Investments and CIO at T. Rowe Price, explains why he remains modestly overweight stocks. Frank Lee, Global Head of Tech Hardware and Semiconductor Research at HSBC, breaks down another wild week for semiconductors. Plus, why rising oil prices could become the biggest threat to the market: Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research explains. Eric Johnston, Chief Equity and Macro Strategist at Cantor, argues the momentum unwind in semiconductors is ending and explains why strong fundamentals and improving earnings estimates support staying with the trade through earnings season. Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson analyzes the outlook for telecom stocks as investors reassess defensive sectors. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

Why do so many high achievers burn out? Most of us think recovery is what happens after the work is done. We push through the week, take care of everyone else, and tell ourselves we'll slow down later. But according to Dr. Kristen Holmes, Global Head of Human Performance at WHOOP, recovery isn't separate from high performance. It's an essential part of it. In this conversation, I sit down with Kristen to unpack the science behind sustainable high performance and why recovery plays a much bigger role than most of us realize. We talk about why sleep consistency matters more than sleep duration, the habits that have the biggest impact on our energy, and how to stop running on empty. By the end of this conversation, you'll have a new way of thinking about recovery and practical strategies to put into practice right away. Pre-order Kristen's new book, Aligned.  More from Molly: Get Molly's latest book, Dynamic Drive Website: mollyfletcher.com

Rich Hill, Global Head of Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, told the REIT Report podcast that the REIT market's transition from recovery into expansion is an important signal that indicates the path forward for the broader commercial real estate market.REIT gains so far in 2026 indicate that “predictable earnings and income-driven total returns are becoming more attractive again. That's been out of favor for the past several years, but it seems to be a little bit more in vogue right now,” Hill said.Hill stressed that dispersion in returns is a continuing theme in the CRE market and “investors are going to have to recognize that this cycle is really about picking the right property types in the right markets…this is a cycle for selectivity, this is not a cycle where you can play broad-based mega themes.”Hill said the current cycle should also be viewed through a longer-term lens. Market expansions, he explained, usually last around 12 years. “Why do they last so long? It's just not about price returns, it's also about underappreciated income returns. We think this is actually a really interesting cycle. If you think you've missed the bottom, you haven't. This is going to play out for a long period of time.”

Cloud was one of the main drivers of the early waves of AI adoption. However, as AI has become more and more embedded in systems and devices — in both consumer and enterprise contexts — it's becoming a bottleneck. This isn't just about costs (although yes, that issue is certainly surging up the agenda), it's also about how we optimize our architectures and improve device performance. This is why conversation is turning to hybrid AI: embracing a hybrid approach that combines proprietary cloud services with local or on-device AI can help organizations deliver better experiences for users, whether they're consumers, other businesses or internal teams. One company exploring this space is electronics giant Lenovo. In this episode of the Technology Podcast, host Prem Chandrasekaran is joined by Girish Hoogar, Lenovo's Global Head of Technology for Cloud and Software, to discuss why the company is embracing hybrid AI, how it's approaching implementation and what the implications are for other technologists. As industry attention turns to local AI, listen for a first-hand perspective on what the trend actually means for engineering teams and their organizations.

For most DC savers, the default fund is their pension journey. Yet behind what appears to be a simple member experience sits a complex set of investment, behavioural and regulatory decisions.In this DC Close Up episode for L&G Talks Asset Management, our Global Head of DC, Lesley-Ann Morgan, sits down with Head of DC Strategies, Graham Moles, to examine the changing world of DC defaults. From the debate between target date funds and lifestyle approaches, to the growing role of member data, private markets and retirement design, they discuss how schemes are adapting to meet the changing needs of savers. The conversation also examines Value for Money, default decumulation and what comes next for one of the most important areas of DC pension design.

Here is the second part of our special broadcast on how the next generation of investors is changing the wealth management industry. Merryn Somerset Webb brings together Bloomberg's John Stepek, Bytetree's Charlie Morris and Jean-Damien Marie, Global Head of Investments for Barclay's Private Bank and Wealth Management. Join us in Edinburgh for Fringe Festival! https://www.edfringe.com/tickets/whats-on/the-butcher-the-brewer-the-baker-and-merryn-somerset-webbSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stochastic conversations is a new series from Deutsche Bank's QIS Research Team, featuring team members' journeys from their background to their current roles. The series will also discuss recent market drivers, and themes related to the expertise of each individual analyst. In the second episode, Caio Natividade, Global Head of QIS Research introduces Gianpaolo Tomasi, Head of Quant Equity Research from the QIS team.

What if changing direction didn't mean starting over? So many of us believe our careers should follow a logical path. But what happens when the version of success you've worked so hard to build no longer feels aligned with who you are? In this episode, Karen is joined by Christina Finlay, Global Head of Data and AI for Industrial Operations at Volvo Cars, whose career has taken her across continents, industries, and even into restaurant ownership before entering the world of data. Together, they explore what it really means to reinvent your career without losing yourself. Christina shares  how staying true to her values helped her navigate major career changes, why transferable skills matter far more than we often realise how every experience, even the ones that seem unrelated, can shape the leader you become. They also discuss the emotional side of change: rebuilding confidence after setbacks, making difficult personal decisions, and learning that success isn't about following a straight line but creating a life that feels meaningful to you. If you've ever questioned your next career move, wondered whether it's too late to change direction, or felt like you'd be starting from scratch, this conversation will remind you that every chapter of your career has prepared you for what's next. Find out more about the Women in Data Nordic Chapter at womenindata.ai

On this episode of CoinDesk's Public Keys from the New York Stock Exchange, Jennifer Sanasie is joined by Ben Emons, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of FedWatch Advisors, to break down the market fallout from Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 and why the Fed is now actively debating rate hikes rather than cuts ahead of the August 7th CLARITY Act deadline. Nadine Chakar, Managing Director and Global Head of Digital Assets at DTCC, explains how the firm moved tokenized securities into live production and outlines DTCC's role as an institutional multi-chain orchestrator ahead of a full commercial launch. The conversation turns to ETF flows, where Bitcoin funds finished last week with $76 million in net inflows despite a $425 million outflow on Monday alone, and Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin inflows led by $135 million into BlackRock's ETHA. Finally, Bilal Little, Global ETF Strategist at Direxion, unpacks the debut of BTCU and EVMU — the industry's first 2x leveraged spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs — explains why an ETF wrapper beats margin on a crypto exchange for retail traders, and responds to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas's thesis that Bitcoin ETFs will mirror gold's 22-year "triumph and pain" trajectory. The episode closes with the Fear and Greed Index at 29. - Learn more at https://www.bullish.com/. - Register now for CoinDesk's Policy and Regulation event on September 22, 2026: https://policy-regulation.coindesk.com/. - To get market moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - Timecodes: 00:00 Welcome to Public Keys 00:22 Ben Emons (FedWatch Advisors) Joins Public Keys 00:48 China's Kimi K3 Rattles Chip Stocks Friday 01:42 Bitcoin Holds $64K, While AI Sells Off 02:59 Crypto Miners Pivot to AI: HUT8 Up 14% 03:58 Kimi K3 vs. DeepSeek: This Time It's a Price War 05:03 AI Selloff Tightens Financial Conditions, Helps Fed 06:32 Fed Now Debating Rate Hikes, Not Cuts 06:58 CLARITY Act Deadline: August 7th 09:15 DTCC Takes Tokenized Securities Into Live Production 09:36 Nadine Chakar on the 10-Year Journey to Live Tokenization 13:45 DTCC's Multi-Chain Roadmap 15:26 DTCC's Digital Twin Framework 18:14 Bitcoin ETF Flows: $76M Week Masks $425M Monday Outflow 18:49 Ether ETFs Outpace Bitcoin; Robinhood Chain Hits $800M+ Daily Volume 19:35 Bilal Little (Direxion) on the First 2x Spot Crypto ETF Debut 22:42 How BTCU and EVMU Work — and Why Not Just Use Margin? 25:50 Do Bitcoin ETFs Mirror Gold? 27:38 Fear and Greed Index at 29

Text us your thoughts on the episode or the show!AI is becoming part of every Marketing Ops workflow. But what if the most valuable skills in the future aren't technical at all?In this episode of Ops Cast, Michael Hartmann sits down with Debby Mayen, Global Head of Marketing Operations and Analytics at Logitech, for a thoughtful conversation about balancing technology with humanity in the age of AI.Debby has spent her career leading global marketing operations teams through major shifts in technology, but her approach stands out because she intentionally creates space away from screens. Through reading physical books, exercising, creative pursuits, and meaningful human connection, she believes the best leaders strengthen the skills that AI cannot replace.Together, Michael and Debby explore how AI can expand human potential without replacing critical thinking, why creativity and communication are becoming even more valuable, and what today's Marketing Ops professionals should focus on to stay relevant in an AI-enabled workplace.Topics covered include: Why balance is essential in an AI-driven world  Using AI to challenge your thinking instead of replacing it  How AI amplifies both strengths and weaknesses  Why creativity, communication, and human connection are becoming competitive advantages  What hiring managers are seeing as AI becomes mainstream  Helping teams embrace AI without creating fear  Practical advice for early-career Marketing Ops professionals  Why stepping away from technology can make you a better leader Whether you're leading a team, building your career, or simply trying to use AI more intentionally, this episode offers a practical perspective on staying human while embracing the future.Be sure to subscribe, rate, and review Ops Cast, and join the conversation at MarketingOps.com.Episode Brought to You By MO Pros The #1 Community for Marketing Operations ProfessionalsSupport the show

AI is making it easier than ever to start a business. Side hustles are turning into startups, and more first-time founders are launching companies without a technical background. But while AI is lowering barriers to entry, going from a great idea to a real company comes with challenges, questions about security, scaling, and managing costs often arise as companies grow.Here to share with us how founders are navigating all of this is Deap Ubhi, Global Head of Technology for Startups at Amazon Web Services. https://aws.amazon.com/startups/  Moments with Marianne Radio Show airs in the Southern California area on KMET1490AM & 98.1 FM, an ABC Talk News Radio Affiliate!  https://www.kmet1490am.com Discover inspiring conversations with today's leading authors, celebrities, thought leaders, and change makers. To learn more about the Moments with Marianne Radio Show, explore guest interview opportunities, connect with Marianne, and follow her on social media, visit https://www.mariannepestana.com Explore the Moments with Marianne Book Club and find your next great read: https://www.mariannepestana.com/book-club/ Listen to the Moments with Marianne Radio Show on KMET 1490AM & 98.1FM, an ABC News Radio Affiliate, weekdays at 8:06 AM PT / 11:06 AM ET and Sundays at 10:06 AM PT / 1:06 PM ET. Learn more at: https://www.kmet1490am.com/moments-with-marianne 

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Mark Schmidt unpack why U.S. healthcare feels so expensive and the potential impacts of rising hospital costs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Mark Schmidt: And I'm Mark Schmidt, Head of Municipal Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, a discussion into one of the biggest mysteries in one of the biggest sectors of the economy. We're talking about healthcare costs. It's Friday, July 17th at 2pm in London. Mark Schmidt: At 9am in New York. Andrew Sheets: So, we're talking today about healthcare, which represents roughly a fifth of the U.S. economy, the bulk of job creation over the last several years, and in my view, honestly, one of the biggest inflation paradoxes that we see in the market. On the one hand, the high cost of healthcare is taken as a given, and it's something that many Americans still struggle with financially. But if you look at the official inflation data in the U.S., healthcare costs have been lower than normal, and that's been true now for a number of years. So, what's going on? How do we tie this together? And Mark, you just wrote a report that tries to do exactly that. So, what did you hope to accomplish with this report? Mark Schmidt: You're absolutely right. It's hard to underline enough just how large healthcare is to the U.S. economy overall. Americans spend nearly $6 trillion on healthcare. That's more than the GDP of the entire country of Germany. And if we think about prices, Americans pay more. A knee replacement, for example, costs $25,000 in the United States. That same procedure costs just $6,000 in France. Common heart treatments that would cost $3,000 in Germany or $10,000 in Australia cost $34,000 in the U.S. It also matters for everyone's local community. Healthcare jobs have been growing twice as fast as the rate of job growth in the economy overall. And those are good jobs. They pay above average wages. For many Americans these days, the most secure path to the middle class is a career in healthcare. Now, this may seem a little bit arcane, but it probably hits close to your portfolio as well. Earlier in the year, when we took a look at how equity separately managed accounts invest, they typically have a core overweight to healthcare. And even though American prices may seem like an American issue, many of the largest and most profitable healthcare companies in the world are actually headquartered in Europe. So, whether you're sitting in New York or sitting in London, the price of American healthcare probably matters to you. But as you noted, Andrew, it does feel like a paradox because although Americans cite healthcare costs as one of their top concerns, and although healthcare spending is growing at 6 percent a year or more, the official inflation data says that healthcare prices are in check. And at one point earlier in the year, healthcare inflation, according to official data, even dipped below 3 percent. It just didn't make a lot of sense, and that's why we got together with our colleagues across equities, fixed income research, public policy, and economics to dig into what was actually going on. Andrew Sheets: So, Mark, let's dig right into that. I mean, it seems like a perfect encapsulation of the so-called Main Street versus Wall Street perception of the economy. So, what's going on? How does one kind of square those two numbers? Mark Schmidt: The easiest way to understand it is that you can't walk through a grocery store and figure out the price of a knee replacement. And that's true both for you and me. It's also true for the government. They have to survey hospitals and health insurance companies. The trouble is that the prices that health insurance companies pay hospitals, well, those are trade secrets. So, at any given point in time, even for the best government economists, it's not entirely clear what the price trends are. And that's why when you look at the official data, healthcare inflation typically has relatively lumpy jumps in the series. You could see several months of 0.1 or 0.2 percent official growth in healthcare inflation. Or as earlier this week, you could see certain categories jump to 0.4 or even 0.8. Andrew Sheets: Another element, Mark, that you talked about in the report is that people are also consuming more healthcare. So, talk a little bit about that. How that factors into this dynamic, and again, is that just going to be the new normal as the population ages and we tend to spend more on healthcare as we get older? Mark Schmidt: That's right. The good news is that we're living longer lives. The bad news is that means that we have more chronic healthcare conditions to deal with. The good news is that more procedures can be done in outpatient settings, and those, generally speaking, are cheaper. The bad news is that inpatient care, inpatient prices go up as the complexity of procedures that actually happen in a hospital setting increase significantly. When you balance it all out, it's a situation where, thankfully, the United States and most Americans have the means and the wealth to pay more for healthcare. The flip side of that is that they are paying more for healthcare, and that's why we think that the recent softness in healthcare inflation is actually too good to be true. Andrew Sheets: Something that jumped out at me from this report, Mark, was just how important hospitals are in this equation. And the experience of the patient and the experience of the hospital can be different economically. And that difference can also matter for how this shows up in official inflation and government statistics.So, you know, it would be helpful maybe just to walk the listener through. If I go into the hospital and I need knee surgery. You know, how does that look like from my perspective in terms of paying for it, assuming I have health insurance through my employer? How could that look like to the hospital? And how could that look like coming out the other end into the official government statistics? Mark Schmidt: Well, of course, Andrew, the first thing that you do when you break your leg is you call six hospitals and shop around for the cheapest price, right? Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Of course. Mark Schmidt: So that's actually the problem because when you get care, you're not in a place to ask about the price. And frankly, even if you asked your doctor or nurse what the price is, they probably wouldn't know. Not only is it not their job to know the price, but all of those negotiations happen after the fact – with the prices that the insurance companies negotiate with the hospitals. After COVID, hospitals had a lot more costs to spread out among the people who were coming in the door, and so they raised prices across the board, not just for procedures that were related to respiratory illness. Naturally, insurance companies noticed that, and they started to push back. So long after you get a cast for your broken leg – and by the way, I wish you a speedy recovery – insurance companies end up going back and forth negotiating with your doctors for exactly how much they should pay you. And although these prices were loosely set well before you walked in the door, the exact way it gets billed and coded? Well, let's just say there's a lot of back and forth. For a well-run hospital, the cost of talking to and ultimately getting reimbursement from your insurance company, that alone could be 2 to 4 percent of revenue. And in especially complex cases, that whole negotiation can eat up 5 to 7 percent of the total bill. You're also right to flag that hospitals really are still the central point of the U.S. healthcare system. Americans spend $2 trillion in a hospital setting. And hospitals overwhelmingly coordinate care for both primary, specialty, and pharmacy services. Andrew Sheets: Mark, another issue I wanted to ask you about was the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, Medicaid, and how those programs fit into the story? Mark Schmidt: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act included a variety of measures to slow the overall growth rate of healthcare. Now, for all the reasons we just discussed, that's probably warranted. The Affordable Care Act is another wrinkle. Enhanced subsidies, which were already set to expire – did in fact expire at the end of last year. And as a result, more Americans are now uninsured. It remains to be seen how that impacts overall costs. In the United States, when you have a health emergency, a hospital is legally obligated to treat you because of a 1990s law called EMTALA. Even if you can't pay, the system eventually does. Historically, uncompensated care costs have been passed on to individuals and companies with insurance. For now, however, it remains to be seen whether these changes in law and in the overall number of people with insurance will cause healthcare prices to rise or fall. Andrew Sheets: And Mark, just for the broad-based implications of this, right? It's fair to say that in any health insurance system, there are some people who consume a lot more healthcare. They're unhealthy or they're unlucky. And there are some who consume a lot less. And, you know, this is something where that overall coverage question matters. Because if you have things that reduce the number of otherwise healthy people who are in those healthcare pools, it can raise the cost for everybody else. Those people who were in some ways subsidizing the higher consumers of healthcare are no longer there. Is that a fair way to frame it, do you think? And are there potential changes given some of these legislative actions that could lead to changes of what the pool looks like – and what overall costs could look like? Mark Schmidt: That's a great point. And healthcare is probably the only part of our economy where you would say, "Thank goodness I did not get my money's worth." As we think about it… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Very true. Very true. Mark Schmidt: As we think about it, most young and healthy people are going to be paying more for their health insurance than they receive in healthcare. Again, that's a good thing. Because American healthcare prices are so much higher than anywhere else in the world, paying in more than you get back? Well, that hits the wallet harder in America than it does in other countries. And that's why for many people – choice – choosing how much health insurance to have and how much to pay for it, really is central to keeping the American economy dynamic. The flip side, however, is that as Americans get older, more people have Medicare. Now, Medicare is pretty good if you have it. But the catch is that Medicare prices, according to most independent estimates, do not fully reimburse for the cost of care. So, as more seniors take up more beds in a hospital, that means that commercial prices, the prices for people who have private insurance through their employer, are likely to rise even faster. Andrew Sheets: So, Mark, I think a good place to close it out and kind of bring this all together is a really important conclusion of this report – is that hospitals have been absorbing a number of these rising costs of healthcare through lower margins for the hospital. And that has resulted in lower ultimate inflation because the inflation is measured out the other side, out ultimately what the hospital earns. And if you could just maybe talk a little bit more about that. To what extent have those margins been compressed? And what that might mean for things going forward? Mark Schmidt: That's right. We dug into the finances for hundreds of not-for-profit hospitals in the United States. They are facing higher costs and shrinking margins. Historically, hospitals have partially passed on expense increases of this magnitude. Now, in their conversations with insurance companies, the biggest benchmark setting of prices happens once every two to three years. So, we're not going to see hospital prices show up in the inflation data overnight. But when we look at hospitals across the country, their budget information and their guidance is consistent with firming prices. Andrew Sheets: Great. Thank you so much, Mark. I've really enjoyed the conversation. Mark Schmidt: Thanks for having me, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a friend or colleague today. And rate and review us on wherever you listen. It helps more people find the show.

What if walking away from the CEO seat was the smartest career move you could make in AI right now?Cameron Herold sits down with Alex Triplett, COO of you.com, the company quietly powering web search for AI agents behind brands like Salesforce, Anthropic, and Harvey. Alex turned down the chance to be a CEO to take the second-in-command seat at a fast-moving AI startup, and he explains exactly why.They get into the operator work most leaders avoid: walking into a 135-person company, making a brutal focus call, and rebuilding the team around a single mission. Alex breaks down his first 90 days, the listening tour that validated his biggest decision, how he sells to enterprise without getting strung along, and the system that keeps him out of the minutiae.Skip this one, and you risk what most new executives do: the right idea at the wrong time, and broken trust. Listen now for the unfiltered COO playbook on focus and timing.Sponsored byGenius Network - An exclusive community for highly successful entrepreneurs, connecting you with top-tier leaders, strategic insights, and powerful relationships to help you grow your business faster and smarter.Learn more: https://www.geniusnetwork.com/Timestamped Highlights10:16 – “Google for AI agents,” explained: the invisible layer your favorite LLM cannot work without13:18 – You might be using you.com right now without knowing it. Here is where it hides in the AI stack15:08 – How to tell a real enterprise deal from a buyer who is just keeping you busy19:56 – The COO superpower hiding in plain sight, and why it gets you a seat at the C-suite table23:08 – Chief of staff or glorified executive assistant? The title too many companies get wrong25:24 – Three companies, one founder: how Richard runs you.com while raising $650M for a frontier lab33:34 – 135 people on day one: the focus call that cut the team to 110, then built it back stronger38:01 – One mission, one North Star, and the moment focus “just exploded” the company39:23 – The first 90 days that make or break a COO: the listening tour that validated everything47:23 – Why this COO leaves messages unread on purpose, and what it taught him about good decisions50:09 – The one-sentence piece of advice he would give his 22-year-old selfAbout the GuestAlex Triplett is the Chief Operating Officer of you.com, the leading web search API for AI agents, serving customers like Salesforce, Anthropic, and Harvey. An investor turned operator, Alex spent the first decade of his career in private equity before moving to the operating side. He served as Global Head of Corporate Development at ION Group, where he helped grow the business from $150 million to $3 billion in revenue, and later as CFO and COO of Appfire. He also chairs the board of the travel app Pangea and holds a degree from the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia.

Credit markets are stepping in to fund the surging demand for AI. Our experts Lindsay Tyler and Anish Shah explore the opportunities and risks behind this record financing wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lindsay Tyler: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Anish Shah: And I'm Anish Shah, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley. Lindsay Tyler: Today, how issuers and investors are approaching the rapidly evolving world of AI financing. It's Thursday, July 16th at 10am in New York. As AI demand accelerates, credit markets are being asked to finance infrastructure on a scale that used to be associated with utilities, telecom, or energy. That raises a central question for issuers and investors: How much debt can the AI ecosystem absorb? And at what price? Anish, can you walk our listeners through the key products in your purview? Anish Shah: Certainly, in my nearly twenty years at Morgan Stanley, this is probably the most incredible time period I've ever seen in the credit markets. I've had the privilege of working across a number of different roles in capital markets and lending. And a couple of years ago, we integrated the debt underwriting business across both investment-grade and leverage finance franchises in recognition of how interconnected the whole credit ecosystem has become. In addition to our core activities helping clients raise capital for their strategic priorities, two of the big focus areas that we've had have been finding ways to harness the power of the private credit universe and also delivering best-in-class capabilities in funding this incredible growth in AI spend. Lindsay Tyler: AI financing has certainly been a theme we've also been focused on in research. Our equity research colleagues project that a handful of key players could add more than 30 gigawatts of capacity over a two-year timeframe, driving around [$]2 trillion of aggregate cash CapEx in that period. And to put that into context, a single gigawatt of data center capacity can require roughly $12 billion for the shell, and then often more than double that for chips and racks. So, from your vantage point, what inning are we in? And what gives you confidence that credit markets can continue funding this opportunity at scale? Anish Shah: I mean, Lindsay, the numbers certainly are staggering, as you note. And if you just observe the CapEx estimates for the hyperscalers and broadly for AI infrastructure, we're certainly in the early innings. Lindsay Tyler: Mm-hmm. Anish Shah: The largest tech companies have historically, as you know, raised very little debt. In fact, many of these companies have not even needed a credit facility. As CapEx projections were materially increased in the second half of last year, we saw the beginning of scaled capital raises. Hyperscaler issuance has quickly gone from less than one percent of the investment-grade market to more than 10 percent of the market. You know, as I look ahead, based on what we're seeing on the ground, we think that AI-related funding, whether it's for data center development or financing compute capacity, could top 15 percent of the total issuance across all credit products. This has been an unprecedented test for the capital markets, both in terms of the depth of capacity and the breadth of product. The teams have been on the forefront of deep investor dialogue and product innovation. This spans corporate investment grade, first of their kind financings in high-yield and leveraged loan markets, and new takes on asset-backed financing. And each of these areas has seen material issuance both in public and private markets. Lindsay Tyler: Great backdrop. Let's dig first into investment-grade corporate debt, an area you know well from your time previously leading the investment-grade team. Can you help frame the scale and the significance of this financing bucket and how AI-related debt is scaling within it? Anish Shah: Well, you know, as you know, the investment-grade bond market, specifically in dollars, is the deepest, most liquid pool of capital in the world. Volumes have grown materially over the last few years and are likely to eclipse $2 trillion in issuance this year. Hyperscalers are among the very best credits in the world, and they have the ability to come in and out of markets with relatively quick twitch, little to no pre-marketing, and in fairly large size. You know, $20 billion-plus deals used to be rare in the investment-grade market, now happen multiple times a quarter. This is why we've seen the predominance of AI-driven capital raising take place in the investment-grade market. For the most part, investors have digested that supply very well. While we've seen some modest widening credit spreads for hyperscalers and some of the other tech issuers, I'd say it's de minimis relative to their expected ROI. Lindsay, I've talked a lot about supply dynamics and issuance. What other factors are you and investors considering when assessing fair value for investment-grade rated technology bonds? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. It's prudent to really weigh a mix of technicals, fundamentals, and relative value. You know, as you discussed on the technical side, and related to my discussions with debt and equity investors, I've been focused on scale of buildouts, market capacity, digestibility across currencies, positioning along the curve, implications of equity issuance, and whether AI financing could crowd out other areas of TMT credit. But moving more to the fundamental side of things, you mentioned ROI, and for the players that are scaling compute capacity, there are a handful of key monetization and return questions that keep coming up. How quickly can these companies bring new capacity online? Once it's live, how does it translate into durable revenue and cash flow? Is that capacity supporting internal products, proprietary models, broader cloud offerings, or compute leased to third parties? And then how fungible is the capacity across those use cases if demand or returns shift? Further on the fundamental side, we've done some differentiated work around growing long-term commitments. We've seen that high-quality hyperscalers and a few of the semis companies are anchoring the AI ecosystem through leases, guarantees, other obligations. These commitments really extend beyond vanilla bond issuance. So, I encourage investors to look beyond the funded debt and really understand the accounting and the ratings implications here of some of those commitments. And this ties nicely into the next topic that I wanted to raise, which is project finance debt. I've noticed that, you know, a lot of the commitments that we're seeing from IG players support another layer of financing. Lease commitments can underpin project finance debt, an area of sizable issuance and innovation. The public high-yield market has emerged as a new funding source in this way for data center construction, with more than 30 billion priced across 15 deals, since fall 2025. Can you walk us through, Anish, the innovation behind these structures, and how are these high yield deals different than other ways to, kind of, raise project finance debt? Anish Shah: Yeah, it's incredibly interesting. I mean, the bulk of the issuance, as I noted has come in the investment grade market, but I would say the bulk of the innovation has come in the sub-investment grade market. You know, historically, for very capital-intensive sectors like energy and power or real estate, the project loan market was the most efficient source of initial funding. The developer would tap banks to underwrite a highly structured construction loan. Once the project is up and running, you could then refinance that loan with the predictable cash flows into a more institutional financing, like the investment grade bond market or the term loan B or securitization markets.That product may still be very viable in many sectors, but we felt early on that bank-provided construction loans would not meet the capacity needs of the AI investment cycle. The market really needed an institutional credit product that bypassed the need for construction loans. The key innovation came in the form of first-of-its-kind high-yield bonds that funded the development of a new data center complex. Given the relatively short construction period and the "offtake" supported by some of the highest quality credits in the world, we felt like this financing structure would be incredibly well-received in the high-yield market. The win here is that the developer accesses fixed rate long-term capital and maintains flexibility to call the bonds and refinance at a lower cost. Judging by how these financings have gone, there's a strong level of investor enthusiasm. I think that they've only scratched the surface, and I would expect that we see much more of this. And potentially even expand it to other products in the leverage finance markets given the tremendous level of investor demand. Lindsay Tyler: Yeah. It's certainly been exciting to follow many of those deals. Beyond the public space, we're also seeing a wave of innovation in private credit and asset-backed finance. Anish, how do companies decide whether capital is best raised in the public or the private markets? Anish Shah: Well, I'm glad you raised the whole avenue of private markets because it may be the most significant change in the credit markets over the last few years, broadening the scope of private credit from directly lending into leverage buyouts to now financing large investment-grade projects. There are great examples in the world of GPU and TPU financing, where we structure loans secured by the asset and the cash flows, or in data center development.Lindsay, from your perspective, what are investors focused on when these private structures intersect with public credits? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Many of these asset-backed private financings have prompted investors to look more closely at any of the public companies involved, whether as issuers, tenants, customers, or support providers. This ties back to the point I raised earlier. Where does the risk reside, and who ultimately is on the hook? These financings have also sparked broader discussions around circularity, vendor financing, and technology obsolescence risk, even when amortizing structures are in place. I do think those are fair concerns to weigh, and they really speak to how quickly the AI financing trend is evolving and how much credit work there is to do. So, Anish, with that balance in mind, relatively strong demand, rapid innovation, but also some real credit questions, let's end with a quick lightning round. Anish Shah: Lindsay, let's do it. Lindsay Tyler: First, what is the biggest risk that could test investor appetite for AI-related debt? Anish Shah: I would say investors are acutely focused on construction delays. Don't underestimate the level of diligence being done by the breadth of capacity you're seeing in the markets. Investors are doing their homework, and we're spending a lot of time trying to mitigate any of their concerns with structural protections. Lindsay Tyler: Got it. Second, beyond data center shells and chips, what is the next potential AI financing opportunity? Anish Shah: It most certainly is energy and power. We're going to see a ton of capital being raised in utilities. It's going to be a little different than what the hyperscalers are doing, just given the nature of their balance sheets. You're going to see more junior capital. We've seen a wave of junior subordinated debt issuance out of the utilities. We're also seeing a lot of activity from our project finance and tax equity team, just given all things energy infrastructure. Lindsay Tyler: Great. And third, if we're sitting here a year from now, what do you think could be the biggest AI financing story we're talking about? Anish Shah: Well, we certainly underestimated the level of financing activity that we saw in the past year. I think when we look back a year from now, we will probably see that the AI labs were much more ready to finance on their own on a standalone basis. That's going to alleviate some of the pressures in the market, but I think it's going to create a whole new set of considerations and structural innovation. Lindsay Tyler: Well, it's certainly been remarkable to watch this financing theme take shape in real time, and the next chapter sounds like it could be even more interesting to follow. Anish, thanks for joining us and sharing your insights. Anish Shah: Great to join, Lindsay. Thanks. Lindsay Tyler: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Anish Shah is a member of Morgan Stanley's Global Capital Markets Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

In this episode of Investing in Integrity, Ross Overline sits down with Mark Keating, EVP and Global Head of Strategic Finance at State Street — one of the largest financial institutions in the world, with roughly $50T in assets under custody and 15% of the world's daily financial transactions running through its infrastructure.Mark and Ross discuss what it means to build a career of lasting impact inside a globally systemically important bank, how AI is reshaping corporate finance, and the question Mark asks himself and his colleagues to keep them grounded: Do you like the person you've become?Meet Mark Mark Keating is EVP and Global Head of Strategic Finance at State Street, where he leads enterprise Financial Planning & Analysis, Real Estate, Procurement, and Financial Oversight and Planning for Operations & Technology, State Street Markets, Global Credit Finance, Wealth Services, and Corporate Functions. He also leads the firm's Finance Data and AI organization and Finance Transformation. He is a member of State Street's Executive Committee, the company's senior leadership team.Since joining in 1990, he has held a range of executive roles in finance, business, and strategy across the firm. He spent over a decade in Zurich, Luxembourg, and London, and served as CFO for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa and as International CFO for more than 15 years. During that time, he served on the Executive Management Board of State Street Bank International in Germany and held a Senior Manager Function designation under the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority's Senior Manager Regime. In 2025, he stepped in as State Street's interim CFO.Mark also serves on the Board of Trustees of the Cathleen Stone Island Outward Bound School and is the executive sponsor of the State Street Veterans Network (VetNet).Mark holds an undergraduate degree from the Boston College Carroll School of Management and an MBA in international finance and economics from Babson College, where he graduated summa cum laude.

Healthcare organizations are under growing pressure to modernize IT environments while improving clinician experience, strengthening security, and preparing for the next wave of AI-enabled workflows. In this episode, we'll explore how AI-powered endpoints, intelligent collaboration tools, and modern device strategies are helping healthcare IT leaders balance operational efficiency with better patient outcomes. Host: James Hilliard Guests: Abhishek Khowala, Global Head of AI, Health and Life Sciences Vertical at Intel Alexander Stanton III, Account Executive for Healthcare at Lenovo Show Notes: 00:00 - Introduction: AI endpoints and healthcare modernization overview 02:17 - Success story: Ohio children's hospital — modernization benefits 03:16 - Security in healthcare AI: Protecting models and managing endpoints 05:33 - Challenges faced by healthcare IT teams: Resources, regulation, data issues 07:54 - Criticality of security and managing AI complexity in healthcare 09:47 - The importance of practical AI adoption focused on patient outcomes 11:12 - How AI PCs enhance clinician workflows and patient safety 13:06 - Practical benefits of AI endpoints: reducing downtime and improving outcomes 14:01 - Role of Intel, Lenovo, and Microsoft in secure, effective AI deployment 15:21 - The significance of local processing in healthcare AI PCs — Intel's innovation 17:18 - Leveraging Microsoft 365 for orchestrating complex workflows with AI 18:59 - Managing endpoint sprawl and prioritizing security in healthcare IT 20:25 - Enhancing threat detection with AI hardware and software integration 22:18 - Rethinking modernization: From IT assets to care quality investments 24:42 - Using endpoints at the point of care to meet KPIs and reduce data risks 26:06 - Early wins: Focus on outcomes, pilot projects, and stakeholder alignment 27:57 - Moving forward with healthcare modernization practices

GenAI has industrialized social engineering. The human entry point is now automated, personalized, and scalable, and that changes how security leaders must defend. In this #shifthappens episode, Andrew Carr, Managing Director and Global Head of Threat Management for Booz Allen Hamilton's Commercial Incident Response team, joins AvePoint Chief Brand Officer Dux Raymond Sy and AvePoint Chief Risk, Privacy, and Information Security Officer Dana Simberkoff to unpack what's genuinely new about AI-driven attacks — and what organizations need to do about it.  Drawing on frontline incident response across healthcare, financial services, manufacturing, and more, Andrew explains why attackers no longer need to compromise systems to extract millions, why built-in trust is now a liability, and why the fundamentals that have been ignored for too long – zero trust, data classification, least privilege – are exactly what this moment demands. He also breaks down how AI should be used in defense: not as autopilot, but as a human-augmented layer that triages, prioritizes, and buys decision-makers the time they no longer have. 

AI can make you faster. But can it make you memorable? Mark Cibort, Global Head of Marketing Operations at Kenvue, joins the #ShinyNewObjectPodcast to discuss agentic employees, data overload, the AI bubble, and why the real competitive advantage is becoming the most human person in the room. Tune in to learn how to make more space for what matters, while still making the most of the tech revolution. 

Patch Tuesday. SonicWall urges immediate patching of actively exploited vulnerabilities.  The White House launches an AI-backed vulnerability clearinghouse. The Air Force contends with widespread cybersecurity quarantines. The UK and EU blame Russia for last year's cyberattack on Poland's power grid. Meta faces accusations of AI-assisted layoffs. NATO allies collaborate in space. The Pentagon offers paid cyber apprenticeships. Spanish police dismantle a cybercrime and money-laundering network. Our guest is Clark Frogley, Global Head of Fraud at Quantexa and former FBI agent, discussing the fraud-as-a-service economy and what banks are missing. Grok Build users data is cloudy with a chance of uploads.  Remember to leave us a 5-star rating and review in your favorite podcast app. Miss an episode? Sign-up for our daily intelligence roundup, Daily Briefing, and you'll never miss a beat. And be sure to follow CyberWire Daily on LinkedIn. CyberWire Guest Today we are joined by Clark Frogley, Global Head of Fraud at Quantexa and former FBI agent, as he is discussing the fraud-as-a-service economy and what banks are missing. Selected Reading Microsoft Patches a Record 570 Security Flaws (Krebs on Security) Adobe Patches Critical ColdFusion Vulnerabilities (SecurityWeek) Vulnerabilities Patched by Fortinet, Ivanti, ServiceNow (SecurityWeek) ICS Patch Tuesday: Vulnerabilities Fixed by Siemens, Schneider, Rockwell (SecurityWeek) Critical Vulnerabilities Patched With Fresh Chrome 150, Firefox 152 Updates (SecurityWeek) SonicWall warns of SMA1000 flaws exploited in zero-day attacks, patch now (Bleeping Computer) White House announces ‘Gold Eagle' AI clearinghouse for cyber vulnerabilities (Nextgov/FCW) Air Force network lockouts hit troops and civilians (Federal News Network) NATO Allies join forces to develop high-end space capabilities (NATO) EU and UK officially blame Russian spies for cyberattack on Poland's power grid (The Register) Meta used AI to target workers with medical conditions for layoffs, lawsuit claims (Reuters) Pentagon opens application window for paid cyber apprenticeships (DefenseScoop) Spanish Police take down €140 million cyber fraud ring, arrest four (Bleeping Computer) Musk promises purge after Grok Build caught sending entire repos to the cloud (The Register) Share your feedback. What do you think about CyberWire Daily? Please take a few minutes to share your thoughts with us by completing our brief listener survey. Thank you for helping us continue to improve our show. Want to hear your company in the show? N2K CyberWire helps you reach the industry's most influential leaders and operators, while building visibility, authority, and connectivity across the cybersecurity community. Learn more at sponsor.thecyberwire.com. The CyberWire is a production of N2K Networks, your source for strategic workforce intelligence. © N2K Networks, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Based on the episode transcript, here's a YouTube description that highlights the biggest stories and guest interviews while optimizing for search. The global supply chain is facing another major test as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. On today's FreightWaves Today, Craig Fuller and Joey discuss the latest developments after President Trump reverses course on a proposed transit fee and instead announces a blockade targeting Iranian trade. What does it mean for oil prices, diesel costs, ocean shipping, and the broader freight market? Joining the show:

On the latest episode of Security Visionaries, host Bailey Popp sits down with Teresa Carlson, Global Head of Public Sector at Anthropic and former CEO of the General Catalyst Institute, for a wide-ranging conversation on the intersection of AI, cybersecurity, and public-private collaboration. Teresa draws on nearly three decades in technology to share what it truly takes to work with government. From navigating compliance frameworks like FedRAMP to building sponsor networks that accelerate the path to authority to operate. The discussion explores how security leaders can shift from a checklist culture to an outcomes-based mindset, and why going in as a partner, not a vendor, is the defining factor for success. Teresa and Bailey also tackle the fragmented global AI regulatory landscape, the challenge of data sovereignty, and why startups bear a disproportionate burden in a world of conflicting mandates. This episode's bottom line? AI is minting a new generation of citizen developers and the opportunity has never been bigger.

How can brands stop chasing trends and start filtering content through their own lens?  Most beauty brands exhaust themselves trying to chase every fleeting TikTok trend, but Charlotte Tilbury has built an empire by doing the exact opposite. Marukh Budhraja, Global Head of Social for Colour and Complexions, joins us to discuss how the brand avoids the 'trend trap' by filtering every asset, comment, and campaign through the singular, authoritative lens of Charlotte herself. Learn how to maintain high-prestige consistency while executing mass intimacy at scale, and why a strong persona is the ultimate competitive advantage in a trend-obsessed space. Got a question or a suggestion for the SocialMinds podcast? Get in touch at socialminds@socialchain.com. 

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets outlines what could potentially go wrong and disrupt markets' optimism this summer.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, discussing three things that could disrupt a quiet summer. It's Wednesday, July 8th at noon in New York. As markets turn the page toward the second half of the year, there are lots of reasons for optimism. Global growth remains solid. Earnings growth is strong, and broadening across more companies. Capital markets remain open and deal activity is robust. We continue to think that the best analogy for current conditions is something like 1997 through 1998 or 2005 through 2006 – periods where corporate aggression was increasing, and had further to go, leading to equities outperforming credit. Even more immediately, July also happens to be one of the best months of the year for markets. And while one should never base their entire investment strategy on how far the earth has travelled around the sun, this month has been the best month for the U.S. High Yield returns, by far, over the last 15 years. The last time the S&P 500 fell in the month of July was 2014. So given all that, what could go wrong? Well, here are three things that are on our mind. First, a key part of our most optimistic view is that U.S. inflation will be lower than the Federal Reserve expects in the second half of this year, leading them to leave interest rates unchanged, rather than raise rates as the market expects. The risk is that this assumption is just wrong, perhaps soon. There is certainly an argument that, if the Fed is worried about inflation, it shouldn't wait to act, and the market is currently placing roughly 1-in-3 chance that the Fed hikes rates on July 29th. If that happens – and again, our base case is it does not – it could drive volatility. Second is earnings season, which kicks off next week. While the general trend of earnings is important, the bigger focus is likely to be on the results of large U.S. tech companies, and in particular, how much they plan to spend building out AI infrastructure. Over the last several quarters, almost like clockwork, these spending estimates have been revised higher and higher. And that has helped boost confidence in AI – as the spending is a sign that the technology holds promise – as well as boosting the broader earnings outlook; since all of this spending is becoming other company's revenue. Our base-case remains that this AI spending cycle has further to run, with capex from the major U.S. hyperscalers rising from over $800bn of spending this year to roughly $1.2 trillion of spending next year. But the risk would be that second quarter earnings now show more hesitation to spend, maybe because the share prices of some of these big spenders have been recent underperformers. And given how much the current growth and earnings story is linked to AI, and how popular AI exposure is with investors, that would create a risk. Finally, there's Iran. Our base case assumes a gradual renormalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and we forecast Brent oil at about $75/bbl in 12 months time, which is pretty similar to current levels. But as of this recording there were reports of renewed hostilities, and the ceasefire may be fragile. The U.S. has already drawn down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest-ever levels, potentially reducing some ability to absorb shocks if the conflict re-escalates. Historically, July tends to be strong, and markets have a number of helpful tailwinds at their back. But an unexpected rate hike, an unexpected reduction in Hyperscaler Capex, and a resumption of the Iran conflict are three factors that are not in our base-case – and could disrupt that. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. Also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The biggest AI stocks have had a remarkable run – but questions still remain. Our Head of Americas Specialty Sales, Thomas Wigg, speaks with Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd and Global Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore about the competition and durability of the investment cycle.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Thomas Wigg: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Tom Wigg, Morgan Stanley's Head of Americas Specialty Sales. Stephen Byrd: I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's Head of Public Policy Research. Thomas Wigg: Today, the rally in AI CapEx beneficiaries has taken a breather in recent weeks on concerns of competition from open-source models, backlash to token-maxxing, and growing political opposition to data center builds. It's Tuesday, July 7th at 10am in New York. Let's start with you, Stephen. There's a lot of discussion recently around a backlash at token-maxxing. Essentially, enterprises trying to curtail their high spending on AI tokens from the frontier labs, and, in many cases, shifting to cheaper open-source China models. Can you first offer some perspective here on the value of tokens for enterprises? I know you have a popular token factory model that walks through the economics of agents. Stephen Byrd: Yeah, Tom, we do have this model that really walks through token economics, both from the adopter side as well as the hyperscaler side. So, let's do the adopter side. So, there's a study out that shows a whole range of enterprise use cases of AI, and the average single use case that they identify would save a company about $55 or provide that much benefit. And while we don't know exactly how many tokens it will require, we can make some educated guesses as to a typical token usage to achieve that $55 outcome. And we know that a typical American model, though this varies a lot, you can think of as the cost per million tokens being in the range of $5 per million. Some will be lower, some will be higher. So, for a few dollars of token cost, an enterprise can generate benefit of $55. So that doesn't make me overly concerned about token spend and concerns about token-maxxing. I know we're going to get into that, but the foundation here is really good in the sense that enterprise use cases are very much in the money. Thomas Wigg: How do you think market share ultimately shakes out on tokens? Do the cheaper models overtake the frontier AI labs? Do tokens bifurcate based on the complexity of workloads? How do you think this plays out? Stephen Byrd: What we continue to see is this relentless pace of innovation and cost reduction. So, the frontier keeps going out – meaning model capabilities continue to increase, and, with that, we see enterprise adoption growing quite a bit. Long way to say there is a role for both the frontier as well as these open-source models, and we'll continue to see both flourish. What I see is a lot of tokens will be spent on open-source models. A lot of the value will be in the higher end models because that's where enterprises are going to go. Let me give you an example. I was speaking with one of our programmers about a recent project, and he used a very high-end coding tool, an American coding tool. And for him, that incremental cost of the tokens was very much worth it. And here's a very practical example as to why it makes sense for many enterprises to use the higher end models. If a coding tool gets one of the thousands of lines of code wrong, the cost to remediate is very, very high. In other words, that incremental cost – in this example I'm thinking of, it's a few dollars incremental cost – is so worth it because if the quality is not there, the cost to any enterprise to go back and remediate is so high. And that's true in a lot of enterprise use cases, but not in every use case. And what we are seeing is these open-source models that are cheaper will be very good for a variety of more mundane use cases that are still very valuable. That said, what we've seen in data from places like OpenRouter is dollar-weighted, meaning valued by enterprise spend, the vast majority is still the proprietary models. But even within proprietary models, we could have more expensive and less expensive models. You do not need to go to the frontier. Where I come out on all this is that I'm very confident that the demand for compute is going to exceed the supply. What is difficult to exactly know is who are the winners, what is the exact mix. But the fundamentals of the demand for compute look extremely strong. Thomas Wigg: So, I think you just gave me the answer, but I do want to bring this all back to AI CapEx. Now, last year, when the market sold off on Deep Seek concerns, the concept of Jevons paradox ultimately prevailed, where the cheaper pricing led to even greater demand and CapEx went higher.Do you think the same plays out here? Stephen Byrd: It does look that way very much. And the Jevons paradox dynamic is what we still see today in the sense that as the models get better, what we can do with the models increase, the cost of tokens will keep dropping, the cost of compute will keep dropping.But let's talk about what might derail that, just to make sure we're thinking about all the risks. If somehow commoditized models could perform at the same level as proprietary models in all situations, then I would feel differently. But I don't see that. What I see is that these newer models really do have capabilities that are fairly breathtaking and that are worth that extra money. But if somehow, we hit a wall where these models aren't getting better and therefore the sort of the open models are going to catch up, then I'd feel differently about that. This is where Ariana will, will come in in terms of policy and, you know, this comes up a lot when we think about U.S. versus China. How do we think about, you know, access to different models? How do we think about the cost of different models? What about the risk of appropriation of capabilities by the Chinese firms, for example? That comes up a lot in policy circles. But the base case that I have is this just looks more like Jevons paradox, and there's going to be continued innovation, continued reduction in the cost of producing these services from these models. That looks like more of the same. Thomas Wigg: Let's shift to Ariana to talk about the political angle here. The cover of Barron's over the weekend was a guy wearing a no data centers T-shirt. And this does seem to be one of the few bipartisan issues of agreement heading into the midterms.The stat that the article gave was that 75 data center projects worth $130 billion were blocked or delayed in 1Q26, which is equal to the total number for 2025. This is according to Data Center Watch. Now, most of this is in blue states like New York, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota considering a statewide moratorium, but you're also seeing Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, parts of Texas restricting tax incentives here. So as this gets louder into the midterms, how do you think this plays out? Ariana Salvatore: So, this is definitely one of the big wedge issues, not just for the midterm elections, but for 2028. And to your point, it's expanding into something that's got bipartisan momentum behind it. Our view is that as long as the Trump administration is in power, something like a federal ban is unlikely to come to fruition. That's because we think the administration is still broadly supportive of the AI data center build-out. And I think even if you were to see a Democrat in office further down the road, that position is the same. And the reason is, it's just too difficult to imagine the U.S. giving up that strategic imperative relative to China. So, while it is true that voters are against AI, while it is true that you are seeing these sorts of local efforts pick up steam, it's also the case that China is accelerating its own AI build-out – not just domestically, but around the rest of the world too. It's also the case that they are kind of tweaking some export restrictions on inputs for some of these data centers, and those geopolitical realities, I think, are hard to ignore. So, at the end of the day, there is a broader strategic imperative here that both Democrats and Republicans kind of recognize and get behind. Now, what does that mean in the near term for the build-out? I think it's not that you're going to see a real pushback or moratorium so much as a conditional build-out.That means you're going to see data centers have to incorporate things like grid modernization in their contracts, agree to longer term investments, for example. Do something that benefits the communities or give it back in some way. And I think that's kind of the policy trajectory in addition to the administration continuing to lean on tech companies to basically, you know, square the circle here and find some way to make this more affordable for, you know, local constituents. Thomas Wigg: Stephen, let me get your take on this too, because I know you live in the D.C. area, and you have a lot of political conversations like you referenced earlier. How do you think this plays out? Is it a red state versus blue state dynamic? And if what Ariana says comes to fruition, where it's a conditional build-out in terms of either giving back to the community or ensuring certain prices or certain technologies behind the meter, in front of the meter, does that have implications for certain areas of the market? Stephen Byrd: Yeah. First, I think Ariana's points were all spot on. I just want to, kind of, build on that and, and dive into it a little more detail. A few things. The politics are, from my perspective, not being the expert that Ariana is, I find them a little strange – in the sense that at the federal level, we have one dynamic, and at the state and local level, we have a bit of a different dynamic. And what I mean by that is, at the federal level, I think it's becoming increasingly clear just how geopolitically important AI supremacy is. As these models get more capable, I think it's pretty clear that the Trump administration really sees just how potent these tools are from a geopolitical point of view. So that points in the direction of wanting to support AI and wanting to ensure that the United States has a leading and dominant position in terms of AI capabilities. Pause there, and then go to your point about, sort of, the local and state level. Building on what Ariana said, what I see are basically two approaches to data center development. In states where the utility is vertically integrated, meaning they control everything, like Louisiana, I do see a path where – in those kinds of states where the politics are a bit more favorable – you could develop a data center connected to the grid, where the data center developer is paying full freight and then some. Meaning that they are providing back to the community, they're providing sort of net benefits, and there should be plenty of capital to make that work and really support all constituents. That can work – in a state where the politics work – because utilities are really weather vanes from a political point of view. So, if their state supports data center development, they will more likely support a data center development. The other approach, though, in many states, whether it's deregulated or it's in a state where the politics are a little less favorable. Which, to your point on the cover of Barron's, it's a lot of states, what I'm increasingly seeing is that the developers are going to go off grid. And they just don't want to show any impact to the community that could be considered negative. So, no use of water, no use of power, and hopefully have a, you know, low or zero emissions profile to show no impact at all. Even then, you want to give back to the community. But the view there is, look, we want to sidestep all of these concerns that we might be causing impacts to the grid by just not being connected. So, I think we're going to see a whole lot of off-grid data center projects. That's mostly natural gas turbines and fuel cells, that general approach. Energy storage will be required in a big way. That's not easy to do. So, in the context of delays there, the Bitcoin players who do have grid access today are clearly seeing a lot of demand for their products. So, I would say politics is now a huge issue that's showing up. The other thing I'd flag is often local communities and states are rejecting projects and using permit requests as a way to do that. So, for example, if your data center needs an air permit because your turbines are going to emit some kind of an, you know, sulfur dioxide, et cetera, into the air, you can run into trouble there. If your data center requires water and you need a water permit, you can run into trouble. So, that's causing these developers to try to find approaches that really minimize or eliminate the need for those kinds of permits. Thomas Wigg: Stephen and Ariana, thank you for taking the time. And to our audience, thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Tom Wigg is a member of Morgan Stanley's Institutional Equity Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Ari Redbord sits down with Katherine, Jessi, and Vy to talk about SEC clarity, the onshore perps boom, and DeFi's opsec problem — plus why the U.S. should hack North Korea back. Thank you to our sponsor! Cape: Your biggest crypto vulnerability isn't your wallet, it's your phone number. Cape is America's privacy-first mobile carrier that rotates your SIM identity daily and blocks SIM swaps before they happen. Get 33% off your first six months at https://cape.co/unchained (use code: UNCHAINED). The hosts of DEX in the City spend every week breaking down crypto's legal fights. This time, they're the ones answering the questions. Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, sits down with Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, Jessi Brooks, and Vy Le for a wide-ranging conversation on where crypto's regulatory and security battles are actually headed. Vy traces her path from SEC enforcement to her case for "tech-neutral" rules: regulators should regulate outcomes, not technology. Katherine explains why DCMs have become crypto's hottest acronym, as true perps and prediction markets move onshore. And Jessi makes her push to stop calling North Korea's hacks "illicit finance" and start naming them a national security threat: Pyongyang, she notes, is funding a weapons program with stolen crypto. Ari goes further — if North Korea can steal hundreds of millions from DeFi, the U.S. should steal it back. Vy pushes back on the panic over the recent hacks: most, she argues, weren't broken smart contracts at all, just sloppy operational security. The conversation covers SEC clarity, the CFTC's moment, DeFi security, on-chain privacy, and what it really takes to keep the ecosystem safe. Host: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ari Redbord - Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs and Host of TRM Talks Hosts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, General Counsel. Previously held senior legal roles across DeFi and centralized exchanges. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Jessi Brooks⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, General Counsel at Ribbit Capital⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vy Le⁠⁠⁠ - Co-host of DEX in the City and General Counsel of Veda Timestamps