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As the Iran conflict upends market narratives, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets offers his take on how to view the historic disruption happening in March and what the next few weeks could bring.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today on the program, a survey of just how quickly key narratives have changed and how lasting that might be. It's Friday, March 20th at 2pm in London. The NCAA basketball tournament, also known as March Madness, is one of my favorite times of the year. The single elimination tournament of 64 teams is wonderfully chaotic with plenty of surprises, especially in the early games. And basketball is one of those sports where momentum often seems real. A team that has somehow forgotten how to shoot in the first half of the game can suddenly look unstoppable in the second. As I said, March is one of my favorite times to watch sports. It is often not one of my favorite times to forecast markets. In 2005, 2008, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025, March saw outsized market volatility. And it's the case again this year. I'm sure, it's just a coincidence. This time, it's not just about a historic disruption to the energy markets, which my colleague Martijn Rats and I discussed on this program last week. It's also a major reversal of the market storyline. If this were a basketball game, the momentum just flipped. In January and February of 2026, there were strong overlapping signals that the U.S. and global economy were in a good – even accelerating – place, boosted by cheap energy, stimulative policy, and robust AI investment. Oil prices were down as metals, transports, cyclicals and financial stocks, all rose. Europe, Asia, and emerging market equities – all more sensitive to global growth – were outperforming. Inflation was moderating. Central banks were planning to lower interest rates. The yield curve was steepening and the U.S. dollar was weakening. The January U.S. Jobs report was pretty good. And then … it all changed. In a moment, the Iran conflict and the subsequent risk of an oil price shock flipped almost every single one of those storylines on its head. Now, oil prices rose and the prices for metals, transports, cyclicals and financial stocks all fell. Equities in Europe and Asia – regions that rely heavily on importing oil – underperformed. The U.S. dollar rose as investors sought out safe haven. Inflation jumped following oil prices. The yield curve flattened on that higher inflation, as we and many other forecasters adjusted our expectations for what central banks would do. And, as it happens, the last U.S. Jobs report was pretty bad. If the Iran conflict ends and oil resumes flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, it's very possible that this story could once again swing back. But until it does, the speed of which this momentum has flipped means that almost by definition, many investors have been caught off guard and left poorly positioned. If you couple that with the challenge of diversifying in this new environment – where the prices for stocks, bonds, and even gold have all been moving in the same direction – the path of least resistance for investors may be to continue to reduce their exposure to ride out the storm, driving further near term weakness.Unfortunately, that could make for an uncomfortable few weeks. At least, there's some good basketball on. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The EU wants to make mergers a bit easier, Wall Street banks are offloading $18bn of debt tied to video game maker Electronic Arts, and investors are piling into cash at the fastest rate since the Covid-19 pandemic. Plus, the FT's Ahmed Al Omran explains why Saudi Arabia's recent truce with Iran has not paid off. Mentioned in this podcast:EU weighs curbs on national powers to block mergersBanks prepare to offload $18bn in debt tied to EA take-private dealInvestors pile into cash at fastest pace since pandemic on Iran fearsHow MBS's bet on Iran backfiredSend us your tariffs story: marc.filippino@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Saffeya Ahmed and Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Michael Lello, and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The FT's Gideon Rachman explains what the Strait of Hormuz's closure means strategically for Iran, Italy's UniCredit has launched a €35bn takeover offer for Commerzbank and China's oil stockpile is put to the test as the strait remains closed. Plus, scientists have identified a potential new type of planet.Mentioned in this podcast:Why Hormuz will haunt us long after this war endsBiggest Nato allies reject Trump's Hormuz armada demandUniCredit launches €35bn Commerzbank takeover offerIran war tests Xi Jinping's plan to build China's stockpilesHellish new planet identified beyond solar systemNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Sonja Hutson, and produced by Marc Filippino, Saffeya Ahmed, and Victoria Craig. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode, we feature a wide-ranging discussion with Henry Chin, CBRE's Global Head of Research—recorded at CBRE's annual Capital Markets Symposium—where we explore global capital flows, the forces shaping investment strategies and why 2026 may be a compelling vintage for real estate investment.* 2026 offers prime investment opportunities in U.S. real estate.* Income growth, not cap rates, will drive future real estate returns.* Value-add industrial assets with access to power are positioned for strong returns.* Amenity-rich, well-located office space should continue to outperform.* Rekindled global capital inflows could boost U.S. real estate transaction volume.

Donald Trump warned Nato faces a “very bad” future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz, and though oil prices have breached $100 per barrel, America's shale producers aren't celebrating. Plus, wealthy individuals have sought to pull more than $10bn from some of the largest private credit funds in the first quarter. And, what to expect from eight central bank meetings this week. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future' if allies fail to help US in IranEU ministers to discuss possible naval options for Strait of HormuzWhy America's shale patch is not celebrating $100 oilRich investors seek to pull billions from private credit funds Iran war reawakens global inflation fearsNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, and produced by Julia Webster. Our show was mixed by Alex Higgins. Additional help from Peter Barber. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this insightful podcast, Warren Ingram speaks to Ryan Murphy, Global Head of Behavioral Insights from Morningstar, on how behavioral science impacts investment decisions, especially during times of market uncertainty. Learn practical strategies to manage emotional biases, stay disciplined, and achieve long-term financial goals.TakeawaysThe Role of Behavior in Investment OutcomesInsights from Behavioral Science and Practical InterventionsDevelopments in Behavioral Finance and Tools for Better DecisionsManaging Anxiety During Global UncertaintyUnderstanding Market Cycles and Long-Term TrendsThe Importance of a Long-Term Perspective in InvestingDealing with Market Recessions and VolatilityThe Impact of Frequent Portfolio ChecksThe Role of Technology and Social Media in Investment BehaviorThe Value of a Consistent Investment StrategyRebalancing and Staying the CourseAccepting Uncertainty and Staying InvestedFind the Whitepaper from Morningstar on "How Financial Advisers Can Support Clients Through Market Volatility" here. Learn more about how Curate Investments can help you here.Send a textHave a question for Warren? Don't forget to voice note your questions through our WhatsApp chat on (+27)79 807 8162 and you could be featured in one of our episodes. Follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn and subscribe to our YouTube channel for more Financial Freedom content: @HonestMoneyPod

Gulf oil producers have lost billions of dollars in energy revenues since the start of the US-Iran war, but there is one country benefiting: Russia. It is earning as much as $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from its oil sales. Plus, the FT's defence and security correspondent Charles Clover explains what may come next in the conflict. Mentioned in this podcast:Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of warIran's new supreme leader vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed‘Sitting ducks': oil tankers trapped in Gulf as Iran widens attacks on shippingRussia rakes in $150mn a day in extra revenue from surging oil pricesNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, and Saffeya Ahmed. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Emerging markets are back in focus in 2026 — not just as a cyclical trade, but as investors reassess performance leadership, diversification, and where growth is showing up in a shifting global paradigm. After a long stretch of disappointing returns, emerging markets have started the year strongly, alongside record interest from global investors. But the case for EM today is less about a single story — and more about dispersion across countries, sectors, and themes.In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido is joined by Alex Brazier, Global Head of Investment and Portfolio Solutions, and Sam Vecht, Portfolio Manager on BlackRock's Global Emerging Markets Equities team. Alex shares what he's hearing from investors across the U.S. and Europe, including the role of flows, sentiment, and portfolio positioning. Sam brings a bottom-up perspective on how emerging markets have evolved over the past two decades — and why market pricing hasn't always reflected economic progress.Together, they explore why emerging markets may play a different role in portfolios today: providing exposure to distinct parts of the AI buildout, offering potentially different valuation and earnings dynamics than developed markets, and responding differently to U.S. dollar moves. The conversation also highlights where opportunities may be emerging beneath the surface — from under-owned regions like Latin America and parts of the Middle East, to shifting sentiment around India — while underscoring the reality that EM remains volatile, cyclical, and highly heterogeneous.Key moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction01:56 Why emerging markets are drawing renewed investor attention in 202604:58 Two Decades of Underperformance06:16 Explaining The Diversification Mirage10:31 Where emerging markets can broaden portfolios — and where correlations still matter13:00 How Investors Can Get Exposure To Emerging Markets16:55 How dispersion across regions is driving more selective, active approaches19:09 Conclusions and Next EpisodeSources: BlackRock, data based on 1,245 EMEA survey submissions in February 3rd rapid response client call; BlackRock calculated using Aladdin data; “World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim”, IMF, October 2025; Bloomberg as at Dec 2025; BlackRock, Global Business Intelligence, as at 20 Feb 2026; BlackRock, Morningstar, Aladdin. Portfolio average allocation based on 166 Europe-domiciled Morningstar moderate-risk multi-asset FoF portfolios, positioning as of 31 December 2025. Global index refers to MSCI All Country World Index.Emerging markets, Emerging markets investing, Capital markets, Global diversification, AI investing, U.S. dollar, Latin America equities, India markets, Middle East markets, Global portfolio strategyThis content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. Reference to any company or investment strategy mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice. In the UK and non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorized and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures, visit blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Market returns have historically been positive a year after many military conflicts. But there have been a few exceptions. What did those events have in common, and what might that indicate about the market's reaction to the conflict in Iran? Plus, we talk to Global Head of Alternatives David Hemming about what he's watching in commodity markets today. (Invesco Distributors, Inc.)

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise the prospect of a more prolonged energy shock, how should investors think about the implications for inflation, consumer behavior, and markets? Global Head of Commodity Strategy Helima Croft, Chief Economist Frances Donald, and Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina discuss what a disruption in oil supply could mean for the macro outlook — and why the longer‑term picture may be more resilient than headlines suggest.

Tokenized stocks have surpassed $1 billion in total value on-chain, marking a new milestone for the fast-growing real-world asset (RWA) sector. Much of that activity is concentrated among a small number of players: Ondo as the largest tokenized stock platform by value, while xStocks products account for another significant share of the market amongst user count and activity.~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBNUse Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!GUEST: Mark Greenberg, Global Head of Consumer and VP at xStocksFollow xStocks on X ➜ https://x.com/xStocksFiTrade xStocks on Jupiter ➜ https://bit.ly/JUPonSolana00:00 intro00:08 Sponsor: Tangem00:46 CLARITY Odds01:16 Senate Passes Housing Bill01:51 Thune Says CLARITY Coming Soon02:25 Tokenized Stocks Explosion Coming02:51 xStocks x Nasdaq Partnership04:39 Traditional Investors Moving Onchain06:22 xStocks on DEX's Upgrade07:40 Netflix on xStocks vs Ondo08:51 Liqudity Problems slowing growth?09:59 Earn Yields on xStocks11:40 Developer Growth12:53 Non-US Stocks coming14:06 Robinhood vs xStocks18:17 LIGHTNING ROUND23:22 outro#Crypto #Solana #ethereum~CLARITY Igniting TRILLION$ into Solana!

In this episode of the Look Forward Podcast from S&P Global, host Aries Poon speaks with Natznet Tesfay, Global Head of Analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how technology is becoming the decisive game changer in geopolitics as we approach 2026. They explore why geopolitics has shifted from sporadic shocks to a constant operating condition, and how traditional stabilizers like frictionless trade, predictable regulation, and cheap capital are becoming "unmoored." Natznet explains S&P Global's concept of the "age of agility" and why policy itself is now a major source of market volatility, requiring leaders to track it as closely as macro data.

The International Energy Agency has launched the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history, investors have sought shelter from the turmoil of the war in Iran in US tech stocks and US inflation held steady at 2.4 per cent in February. Plus, the war has threatened the Indian economy's “Goldilocks” combination of strong growth and low inflation. Mentioned in this podcast:IEA releases record oil reserves to counter Iran war energy shockInvestors seek shelter from Iran war in US tech stocksUS inflation holds steady at 2.4% in FebruaryIran war threatens India's ‘Goldilocks' economyThe ‘number station' sending mystery messages to IranNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Fiona Symon, Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson and Saffeya Ahmed. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

WIth consumers increasingly skeptical of advertising, what's the real difference between a brand that's being genuinely helpful and one that's just being creepy? Agility requires brands to not just react to consumer behavior, but to anticipate it with smarter technology. It's about shifting from broad assumptions to a nuanced understanding of intent, especially when economic uncertainty changes the rules of engagement. Today we are here at eTail Palm Springs, and we're going to talk about the evolution of performance marketing in an era of signal loss and consumer uncertainty. As traditional methods like third-party cookies fade away, marketers need new tools and strategies that are not just incrementally better, but fundamentally different in their approach to engaging customers and driving results. To help me discuss this topic, I'd like to welcome back to the show Jaysen Gillespie, Global Head of Analytics and Product Marketing at RTB House. About Jaysen Gillespie Jaysen Gillespie is a seasoned product and analytics leader with over 15 years in Adtech and data science. As VP of Global Product Commercialization and Analytics at RTB House, he's known for translating insights into simple narratives that marketers can actually use. Whether guiding global teams or speaking on stage, Jaysen has a knack for making performance results understandable and immediately relevant. His focus is always on what drives real business outcomes, not just what looks good on a dashboard. For him, data is only powerful when it leads to smarter decisions and measurable impact. Jaysen Gillespie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaysengillespie/ Resources RTB House: https://www.rtbhouse.com Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code AGILE at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://aglbrnd.co/r/c43e68ce5cfb321e The Agile Brand podcast is brought to you by TEKsystems. Learn more here: https://aglbrnd.co/r/2868abd8085a9703 Drive your customers to new horizons at the premier retail event of the year for Retail and Brand marketers. Learn more at CRMC 2026, June 1-3. https://aglbrnd.co/r/d15ec37a537c0d74 Enjoyed the show? Tell us more at and give us a rating so others can find the show at: https://aglbrnd.co/r/faaed112fc9887f3 Connect with Greg on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregkihlstromDon't miss a thing: get the latest episodes, sign up for our newsletter and more: https://aglbrnd.co/r/35ded3ccfb6716ba Check out The Agile Brand Guide website with articles, insights, and Martechipedia, the wiki for marketing technology: https://www.agilebrandguide.com The Agile Brand is produced by Missing Link—a Latina-owned strategy-driven, creatively fueled production co-op. From ideation to creation, they craft human connections through intelligent, engaging and informative content. https://www.missinglink.company

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

If culture moves at the speed of TikTok, then today's CMO has to move just as fast. This week, Jim is joined by Sofia Hernandez, Global Head of Business Marketing and Commercial Partnerships at TikTok. Since launching in the U.S. in 2018, TikTok has reshaped culture, content, and marketing. And its mission, to inspire creativity and bring joy, has fueled extraordinary growth, even as the company has navigated controversy and major shifts, including the recent acquisition of TikTok U.S. by a consortium of investors including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The platform now reaches more than one billion users globally and has grown into a multi-billion-dollar advertising business, generating an estimated $33 billion in ad revenue in 2025.Sofia has spent the past six years helping build TikTok's business during one of the most dynamic growth periods in tech. In her role, she helps brands around the world show up effectively on one of the most culturally influential platforms in the world. Before TikTok, Sofia served as Chief Client Officer at the consumer insights platform Suzy and began her career in advertising at Publicis, later spending five years at BBDO. An activist at her core, Sofia also speaks openly about representation in tech, where Latinas hold roughly 1% of executive roles, and she is deeply committed to fostering inclusion across the industry.Tune in for a conversation with a leader who believes today's CMOs must evolve into enterprise leaders who connect culture, creativity, and business results.—Learn more, request a free pass, and register at iab.com/newfrontsPromo Code for free access: CMOPODNEW26*Note: promo code is exclusive for brand and agency, brand marketers and media buyers. IAB reserves the right to cancel any registrations that don't meet this criterion. —This week's episode is brought to you by IAB.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oracle's shares climbed 9 per cent on Tuesday after the database group posted better than expected earnings, and we discuss how American businesses are navigating soaring energy prices. Plus, the higher costs to insure tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and the FT's Antoine Gara explains why investors are ditching private credit funds. Mentioned in this podcast:Oracle shares rally on strong revenue forecast from AI data centresSoaring fuel prices expected to cast long shadow across US economyLloyd's of London says it will still insure ‘basically anyone' in the GulfInvestors ditch private credit funds on rising worries over bad loansRetail investors shun private credit funds after Blue Owl gatingNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Fiona Symon, Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson and Saffeya Ahmed. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Credit index spreads have been largely unchanged this year — but the calm surface belies a more complex picture underneath. Rising dispersion, AI-driven disruption fears, widening BDC spreads, and the military conflict in the Middle East are reshaping the risk landscape for fixed income investors — without much additional compensation showing up at the credit index level.  On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar sits down with Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger's Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income, to unpack what's really going on beneath the surface in credit markets. Together, they discuss the growing pressure on BDCs and their software loan exposures, why a crude oil price spike historically favors Fed easing over hiking, how AI disruption is forcing a repricing of software company capital structures, labor market risks that could unlock additional Fed cuts, and where Neuberger's fixed income team is selectively finding opportunity across emerging markets, repriced technology names, and more.   This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. This communication is not directed at any investor or category of investors and should not be regarded as investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Neuberger Berman is not providing this material in a fiduciary capacity and has a financial interest in the sale of its products and services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger Berman products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Use of Artificial Intelligence Tools. Neuberger Berman may utilize AI tools in its business operations to improve operational efficiency and for assistance in research and analyzing data among other uses. AI tools are dependent on historical data, consequently, if the content or analyses that AI applications assist Neuberger in producing are or are alleged to be deficient, inaccurate, or biased, a client account may be adversely affected. Additionally, AI tools used by Neuberger may produce inaccurate, misleading or incomplete responses that could lead to errors in Neuberger's and its employees' judgement, decision-making, investment research or other business activities, which could have a negative impact on the performance of a client account. The application of AI in investment processes, research, or analysis is evolving and subject to limitations, including data quality, algorithmic biases, and interpretive errors. AI outputs should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. No assurance is given regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information generated by AI. This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit www.nb.com/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions. The "Neuberger Berman" name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. © 2026 Neuberger Berman Group LLC. All rights reserved. WF2921150  

 Elise Neel, Global Head of Strategy & Strategic Partnerships at Panasonic Go, shares lessons from leading innovation within large legacy companies and the cultural challenges of driving transformation. She explains how organizations should rethink AI governance and talent, and why roles like the CHRO may become central in the AI era. Key Takeaways: Why leaders must move from simply using AI tools to actively collaborating with them to drive meaningful transformation How access to AI is leveling the playing field, making critical thinking the key differentiator for talent Ways that non-technical professionals can quickly become powerful contributors with the right AI tools and training Why the CHRO role may become one of the most influential positions as organizations integrate AI agents into their workforce How AI could transform product ownership and customer support through intelligent systems that predict maintenance, optimize usage, and improve the overall customer experience Guest Bio: Elise Neel is the Global Head of Strategy & Strategic Partnerships for Panasonic Go, driving business transformation through AI to expand AI-enabled software, hardware, and solutions to 30% of Panasonic's sales by 2035. Previously, Elise was SVP of New Business Innovation at Verizon, where she built a portfolio of nine investment ventures spanning location technology, drones, robotics, and energy transformation while ushering in the 5G era. She also served as CEO of MapQuest and held leadership roles at PlaceIQ, comScore, and InsightExpress. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- About this Show: The Brave Technologist is here to shed light on the opportunities and challenges of emerging tech. To make it digestible, less scary, and more approachable for all! Join us as we embark on a mission to demystify artificial intelligence, challenge the status quo, and empower everyday people to embrace the digital revolution. Whether you're a tech enthusiast, a curious mind, or an industry professional, this podcast invites you to join the conversation and explore the future of AI together. The Brave Technologist Podcast is hosted by Luke Mulks, VP Business Operations at Brave Software—makers of the privacy-respecting Brave browser and Search engine, and now powering AI everywhere with the Brave Search API. Music by: Ari Dvorin Produced by: Sam Laliberte  

Reddit's Chief Operating Officer Jen Wong discusses the impact of gen AI models on its platform and how the company is positioning itself in the era of chatbots and LLMs. Wong sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence's Global Head of Technology Research Mandeep Singh to discuss  the company's ads business and how it plans to leverage LLM search to boost engagement. All the metrics referenced in the episode are as of December 2025.

The price of oil fell sharply, and we'll take a look at why the US and Israel are avoiding an attack on Iran's Kharg Island. Plus, the FT's George Hammond explains what the tenuous relationship between the Pentagon and Anthropic might mean for the AI start-up. Mentioned in this podcast:G7 ‘stands ready' to release emergency oil reservesAnthropic sues the Pentagon over being declared a ‘supply chain risk'Gilt market slump deepens as traders bet on Bank of England rate riseKharg Island: Iran's oil lifeline that Donald Trump has left untouchedWebinar: War in the Middle East: What's the End game? Note: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Saffeya Ahmed and Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Distribution, Brandon Sedloff sits down with Henry Steinberg, Global Head of EQT Real Estate, to discuss the evolution of one of the world's largest real estate investment platforms. Henry shares the story of his path into the industry, from consulting and business school to building a career in logistics real estate through Liberty Property Trust and Exeter Property Group before merging with EQT in 2021. The conversation explores how sector specialization, operational expertise, and scale have shaped EQT Real Estate's strategy today. Henry also explains how data, geospatial analytics, and AI are transforming investment decisions across global real estate markets. They discuss:• Henry's career journey from Arthur Andersen consulting to real estate investing• The history from Liberty Property Trust to Exeter Property Group and the merger with EQT• Why specialization in logistics real estate created a durable competitive advantage• How EQT uses geospatial data and analytics to evaluate acquisitions and development opportunities• Market outlook for logistics, student housing, and data centers across the US and Europe Links: EQT Real Estate - https://eqtgroup.com/real-estate Henry on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-steinberg-5653ba223/ Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro(00:01:58) - Henry's background and career(00:15:31) - Liberty to Exeter origins(00:20:46) - Exeter growth and EQT merger(00:24:49) - Eqt platform and scale(00:26:26) - Real estate strategy mix(00:27:16) - Diversifying beyond logistics(00:27:44) - Living and logistics growth(00:31:17) - Scale through data and AI(00:39:10) - Geospatial data edge(00:43:52) - Student housing signals(00:46:14) - Logistics outlook US vs Europe(00:52:06) - Build or buy expansion

Bex Moorhouse is Global Head of Strategy, Ops Excellence & Performance - Procurement & REWS at WPP where she is passionate about helping to prioritize employee experience and create environments where people thrive. Mike Petrusky asks Bex about her new role and her passion for cultivating such engaging environments where all employees feel seen, valued, and empowered. She believes that empathy and curiosity are crucial "power skills" for workplace professionals, enabling them to adapt, learn, and lead effectively in changing environments, so she shares that storytelling and clear communication are essential. Bex and Mike discuss how real estate and facility management teams often need to better articulate their value in business terms and focus less on justification and more on impact for end users. Continual adaptation, embracing new technologies, and focusing on both operational excellence and human experience will keep the FM profession relevant, so Mike and Bex offer the inspiration you will need to be a Workplace Innovator in your organization! Connect with Bex on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bexmoorhouse/ Learn more about Bex's work: https://www.bexmoorhouse.com/ Find out more about WPP: https://www.wpp.com/en-us Watch the podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSkmmkVFvM4H3pwnlU2AuqynuRDpvnh4J Discover free resources and explore past interviews at: https://eptura.com/discover-more/podcasts/workplace-innovator/ Learn more about Eptura™: https://eptura.com/ Connect with Mike on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikepetrusky/  

The 2017 NYDJ Apparel (nee Not Your Daughter's Jeans) transaction pre-dated Serta as the original “uptier” liability management deal in which lenders holding a majority of the loan amended the waterfall to uptier their existing holdings plus new money, subordinating minority lenders holding the same loans.In a conversation with 9fin's Global Head of Distressed & LevFin Max Frumes, Debevoise's co-head of restructuring Sidney Levinson, who represented the majority lenders in that case, discusses the significance of the deal at the time and the evolution of LME technology ever since. They're joined by Debevoise Partners Scott Selinger and Erica Weisgerber, to of the co-heads of the firm's expanded Liability Management and Special Situations Group.Listen as they explore the commonalities and differences between the NYDJ situation and other well-known restructurings including Serta, J.Crew, Envision, Robertshaw, Trimark, Boardriders, Chewy, Petsmart, Caesars and Xerox.Have any feedback for us? Send a note to podcast@9fin.com. Thanks for watching and listening!

Iran names Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader. Plus, global central bankers are eying the jump in crude prices and the impact on inflation, and Gulf businesses seek more insurance coverage as the war in Iran continues. And, fears of food price spikes are growing.Mentioned in this podcast:Mojtaba Khamenei becomes Iran's supreme leaderOil surges past $100 a barrel for the first time in four yearsQatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports ‘within days'Iran war muddles expectations of likely Federal Reserve interest rate cutsFertiliser disruption from Iran conflict prompts global food shortage warningsNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, and produced by Julia Webster. Our show was mixed by Alex Higgins. Additional help from Peter Barber. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets respond to fast moving geopolitical headlines and fresh swings in energy. Oil dominates the market conversation. Pippa Stevens tracks price moves while Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, breaks down supply risks, geopolitical crosscurrents and what it would take for crude to move higher or stabilize. Matt Stucky of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management and Anastasia Amoroso of Partners Group assess the broader market setup and debate how investors should position amid volatility. Earnings from HPE add another data point for tech. Jason Furman, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, weighs in on the Fed and the economic outlook. Dan Levy of Barclays explains how higher oil prices could ripple through the auto sector. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Nottingham Forest have reportedly severed ties with Edu after he was named Global Head of Football for the Marinakis group of clubs last summer. Matt Davies is joined by Pete Blackburn and the i paper's Daniel Storey to discuss the former Arsenal man's departure, as well as how much he is to blame for this season's failings and what should happen next. Should Forest go all out to bring in former Crystal Palace sporting director (and former Forest player and manager) Dougie Freedman? We also sit down the Jobi McAnuff to get the pundit's take on the relegation battle after he covered the 2-2 draw with Manchester City. We also discuss his experience of playing for four managers in a season at Leyton Orient. #nffc #nottinghamforest

This week on SmarterMarkets™, we present a Special Episode Iranian Conflict: Geopolitics and Energy Markets with Helima Croft, Managing Director & Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets.   David Greely sat down with Helima yesterday to talk about the current state of play in the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. They discuss its implications for global geopolitics and energy markets – and the inflection points to watch to determine how the situation may unfold.  

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly expanding—with over $63 billion in 2025 volume—and are increasingly likely to reach the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) by 2026–2027. A legal battle is brewing between platforms arguing they are federally regulated "event contracts" (via CFTC) and state regulators labeling them illegal gambling.Guest: Ryan VanGrack, VP of Legal and Global Head of Litigation at Coinbase00:00 intro00:09 Private Market Exposure00:44 Investing in Polymarket vs Kalshi01:49 USDC Yields & No Fees02:50 A.I. Agents Will Look For Lowest Fees03:50 Chris Christie vs Prediction Markets04:29 Quacks Like Gary Gensler06:09 Sportsbook vs Derivatives07:40 Federal vs State Regulators08:39 Kalshi Contract Outrage12:18 War Markets?13:46 Social Utility16:20 Insider Trading & Manipulation16:57 It's Already Being Policed18:15 New Tax on Losses if States Win20:03 LIGHTNING ROUND#Crypto #Polymarket #Kalshi~Will Prediction Markets Be Banned?

Forest look set to sacked Edu Gaspar from his role at Nottingham Forest!

Live from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our panel break down where AI is already delivering real returns—and where rapid advances are raising new risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today we've got a special episode on AI adoption. And this is a first in a two-part conversation live from our Technology, Media and Telecom conference.It's Thursday, March 5th at 11am in San Francisco.We're really excited to be here with all of you taping live. And we've got on stage with me. Stephen Byrd, he's our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research; Josh Baer, Software Analyst; and Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst.So, Stephen, I want to start with you, pretty broad, pretty high level. We recently published our fifth AI Mapping Survey that identifies how different companies are exposed to the broad AI theme. Can you just share with us some insights from that piece and how stocks are performing with this AI exposure?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we've been doing this survey now, thanks to you, Michelle, and your excellent work, for quite a while. And every six months it is pretty telling to see the progression.I would say a few things that got my attention from our most recent mapping was the number of companies that are quantifying the adoption benefits continues to go up quite a bit. And to me that feels like that's going to be table stakes very soon as in every industry you see two or three companies that are really laying out quite specifically what they expect to be able to do with AI and lay out the math. I think that really is going to pull all the other companies to follow suit. So, we're seeing that in a big way.We do see adopters, with real tangible benefits performing well. But a new thing that we're seeing now, of course, in the market is concerns that in some cases adoption can lead to dramatic deflation, disruption, et cetera. That's coming up as well. So, we're seeing greater concerns around disruption as well.But broadly, I'd say a proliferation of adoption, that that universe of companies continues to grow, increases in quantification of the benefits. So, that is good. What's really surprised me though, is the narrative among investors has so quickly moved from those benefits which we've talked about into flipping that to toggle all negative, which I know some of our analysts have to deal with every day. The mapping work suggests significant benefits. But the market is fast forwarding to very powerful AI that is very disruptive in deflation. And that's been a surprise to me.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, I want to bring software into this. Your team has been arguing that AI is actually good for software. And it's really something that you need that application layer to then enable other companies to adopt AI. Can you tell us a little bit about how much GenAI could add to the broader enterprise software market? And how are you thinking about monetization these days?Josh Baer: Of course. I think the best starting place is a reminder that AI is software, and so we see software as a TAM expander. And in many ways, even though this is extremely exciting innovation, it's following past innovation trends where first you see value accrue and market cap accrue to semiconductors, and then hardware and devices, and then eventually software and services. And we do think that that absolutely will occur just given [$]3 trillion in infrastructure investment into data centers and GPUs.There's got to be an application layer that brings all of these productivity and efficiency gains to enterprises and advanced capabilities to consumers as well. And so we see AI more as an evolution for software than a revolution. An evolution of capabilities and expansion of capabilities. LLMs and diffusion engines absolutely unlocked all of these new features of what software can do. But incumbents will play a key role in this unlock.And our CIO surveys really support that. Quarterly we ask chief information officers about their spending intentions, and these application vendors who we cover in the public markets are increasingly selected as vendors that companies will go to, to help deploy and apply AI and LLM technologies.So, to answer your question, we estimate GenAI could unlock [$]400 billion in incremental TAM for software; for enterprise software by 2028. And this is based on looking at the type of work able to be automated, the labor costs associated with that work, the scope of automation, and then thinking about how much of that value is captured typically by software vendors.Michelle Weaver: And you have a bit of a different lens on AI adoption. So, what are some of the ways you're hearing software customers using these AI tools and anything interesting that popped up at the conference?Josh Baer: To echo what Stephen laid out, I mean, all of our software companies are using AI internally, both to drive efficiencies, but also to move faster. So thinking about product. Innovation, you know, the incumbents are able to use all of the same coding tools and, you know, …Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Josh Bear: … products geared to developers to move faster and more efficiently on R&D. So, they're doing more. From a sales and marketing perspective, a G&A perspective, every area of OpEx, our software companies are in a great position to deploy the AI tools internally.I think more important[ly], speaking to this TAM and expanded opportunity, is our companies have skews that they're monetizing. It might be a separate suite that incorporates advanced AI functionality. It might be a standalone offering, or it might be embedded into the core platform because the essence of software is AI and it, you know, leading to better retention rates and acceleration from here.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And Stephen, going back to you on the state of play for AI, we had the AI labs here and we heard a lot about the developments and what's to come. So, what's your view on the trajectory for LLM advancements and what are some of the key signposts or catalysts you're watching here?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is for me, maybe the most important takeaway of the conference – is this continued non-linear improvement of LLMs, which we've been writing about for quite some time. And just to give you an example, we think many of the labs have achieved a step change up in terms of the compute that they have, in some cases 10 x the amount of compute to train their LLMs. And that [if] the scaling laws hold – and we see every sign that they will – a 10x increase in compute used to train the models results in about a doubling of the model capabilities.Now just let that sink in for a moment. Let's just think about that. A doubling from here in a relatively short period of time is difficult to predict. It's obviously very significant and I think several of the LLM execs at our event sounded to me extremely bullish on what that will be. A lot of that I think will be evident in greater agentic capabilities.But also, I'd say greater creativity. It was about three weeks ago, three of the best physics minds in the world worked with an LLM to achieve a true breakthrough in physics – solving a problem that had never been solved before. A couple of days ago, a math team did the same thing. And so, what we're seeing is sort of these breakthrough capabilities in creativity. This morning I thought Sam speaking to, you know, incredible increases in what these models can do – which also brings risk. You know, I think it was interesting he spoke to, you know, the risk of misalignment, the risk of what these models are doing.But for me, that's the single biggest thing that I'm thinking about, and that's going to be evident in the next several months.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Stephen Byrd: So, you know, on the positive side, it leads to greater benefits from AI adoption. And to Josh's point that, you know – more and more the economy can be addressed by AI, I do get concerned about the risk that that kind of step change will create greater concerns about disruption and deflation.That causes me to think a lot about that dynamic. Interestingly, we think the Chinese labs will not be able to keep pace just for one reason, which is compute. We think the Chinese labs have everything else they need. They have the talent, the infrastructure. They certainly have the energy, power. But they don't have the chips.If what we laid out with the American models turns out to be true, I could see a chain reaction where the Chinese government pushes the Trump administration for full transfer of the best technology to China. And China could use their rare earth trade position to ensure that. So, that's sort of the chain reaction I've been thinking about.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. So, let's think about then bottlenecks in the U.S. Power is still one of the main bottlenecks. We had several of the solutions providers here at the conference. So, what are you thinking in terms of the size of the power bottleneck in the U.S. and how are we going to fix that?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, absolutely. I am bullish on the companies that can de-bottleneck power, not just in the U.S., a few other places. Let's go through the math in terms of the problem we face and then the solution.So, we have this very cool – it is cool if you're a nerd – power model that starts in the chip level up, from our semiconductor teams. And from that, we build a global power demand model for data centers. We then apply that to the U.S.Through 2028 we need about 74 gigawatts of data centers, both AI and non-AI to be built in the United States. I don't think we'll be able to achieve that for lots of reasons. But starting from that 74, we have sort of 10 gigs that have been recently built or are under construction. We have 15 gigs of incremental grid access, but after those two, we have to go to unconventional solutions, meaning typically off-grid solutions, over 40 gigawatts of unconventional solutions.So that will be repurposing Bitcoin sites, which could be sort of 10 to 15 gigawatts. That'll be big. Renewable energy, fuel cells will be part of the solution. Gas turbines will be a big part of the solution. Co-locating at a few nuclear plants. I'm less bullish than I used to be on that. But when we net all that out, we think the U.S. is likely to be 10 to 20 percent short of the data center capacity that will need to be in.It's not just a power grid access issue, though, that's a big one. Labor is now showing up as a huge issue. Many of the companies I speak to trying to develop data centers struggle with availability of labor. Electricians being one very tangible example. In the U.S. we need hundreds of thousands of additional electricians.So, for any of your children, like mine, thinking about careers, you know, you'd be surprised [at] the amount of money that people are making in the infrastructure business that does feel like it's a labor shift that's going to have to happen, but it's going to take years. So, in that context, we had a number of the Bitcoin companies at our event here. And the economics of turning a Bitcoin site into hosting a data center are extremely attractive. I mean, extremely attractive.To give you a sense of that. Before this opportunity presented itself to these Bitcoin players, those stocks tended to trade at an enterprise value per watt of about $1 to $2 a watt. Then we started to see these deals in which the Bitcoin players build a data center and lease them to hyperscalers. Those deals – depends a lot on the deal but – have created between $10 and $18 a watt of value. Let me repeat that. 10 to 18 – relative to where these stocks were at 1 to 2.Now many of these stocks have rerated, but not all of them. And there's still quite a bit of upside. And what we've noticed is the economics that the hyperscalers are paying are trending up and up and up. Because of this power shortage that we're dealing with. So, a lot of exciting opportunities are still in the power space.Michelle Weaver: Great. Well, I think that's a good place to wrap this first part of our conversation around AI adoption and the state of play. We'll be back again tomorrow with Part Two, looking at financing and risks.To our panelists, thank you for talking with me. And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

My guest today is Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs. Last year she was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance by Barron's. In today's episode, Kristin discusses the explosive growth of the alternatives market over the past decade. She explains what has driven interest from individual investors, particularly millennials, and touches on recent volatility within software and private credit BDCs. Finally, she shares her expectations for the 2026 IPO market, the potential for renewed interest in hedge funds, and how AI is set to reshape sourcing, underwriting, and portfolio construction. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Introduction of Kristin Olson (3:16) Evolution of alternative investments (10:19) Secondary strategies (13:05) Private equity alpha and liquidity concerns (19:13) Private credit market concerns (22:29) Manager selection and due diligence (24:17) Non-traditional investments and hedge fund interest (27:17) Millennial interest in alternatives (31:40) Infrastructure and global opportunities ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th ⁠here⁠. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit ⁠www.funds.alphaarchitect.com ⁠Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As insurance costs rocket for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian countries brace for an energy shock. The rapid expansion of American-owned data centres in the Middle East has opened up a new front for Iran's retaliation against the US. Plus, Donald Trump fires the head of the US Department of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, and the FT's Joshua Franklin explains what JPMorgan wants with an historic New York City hotel. Mentioned in this podcast:Industry casts doubt on Trump plan to insure Gulf oil tankers as Iran war halts transitAsia's big economies brace for Iran war energy shock Donald Trump fires controversial homeland security secretary Kristi NoemPakistan thwarts JPMorgan's efforts to buy historic New York hotelNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, and produced by Saffeya Ahmed and Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Israel expects war against Iran to last weeks and Ayatollah Khamenei's son emerges as a leading candidate for supreme leader. Plus, the Federal Reserve grants crypto exchange Kraken access to its core payments system, inside the collapse of UK property lender Market Financial Solutions, and US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says the new 15% tariff rate could start this week. Mentioned in this podcast:Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba emerges as a leading candidate for supreme leader of IranGulf insurance costs soar 12-fold despite Trump guaranteeFederal Reserve grants Kraken access to payments system in first for crypto groupCollapse of UK property lender sends shockwaves through Wall StreetScott Bessent says 15% global tariff ‘likely' to be imposed this weekSend your tariffs stories to marc.filippino@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Fiona Symon, Victoria Craig, and Henry Larson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ahead of the LegalWeek Conference taking place in New York City March 9-12, Legal Speak Producer Charles Garnar discusses the current state of artificial intelligence in the legal market with Danielle Benecke, Global Head of Baker McKenzie's Applied AI practice.   Hosts: Cedra Mayfield & Patrick Smith Special Guest Reporter: Charles Garnar Guest:  Danielle Benecke Producer: Charles Garnar

Kraken secures access to a Fed master account. What does it mean for crypto? Kraken has become the first crypto-native company to secure direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment systems. In today's Markets Outlook Jonathan Jachym, Kraken's Global Head of Policy and Government Relations, joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to discuss the years-long journey to this milestone and what it means for the future of U.S. dollar settlement and institutional crypto adoption. Plus, Kraken's response to President Trump's recent calls for the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act and stop banks from "undercutting" American innovation. - Timecodes: 01:03 - Inside Kraken's Historic Fed Approval02:27 - The Four-Year Regulatory Journey04:40 - Bypassing Banks to Make Transfers Faster and Safer06:15 - Why Kraken Won Where Others Failed08:16 - Response to Pushback from Banks on Fed Master Accounts10:16 - Trump's CLARITY Act Push vs. The Banks - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Gas prices have soared on the back of the war in the Middle East, and US president Donald Trump criticised some European nations for not being helpful in the conflict. Plus, the ongoing crisis is disrupting precious-metals trade, and China will unveil its five-year plan during the National People's Congress meeting on Thursday. Mentioned in this podcast:Trump threatens to cut trade with ‘terrible' Spain and calls Starmer ‘no Churchill'China's cadres advocate end to overtime to encourage people to have familiesBrussels urges calm as Iran crisis sends European gas prices soaringGold and silver flows disrupted as Iran conflict grounds flightsNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Fiona Symon and Saffeya Ahmed. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kraken secures access to a Fed master account. What does it mean for crypto? Kraken has become the first crypto-native company to secure direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment systems. In today's Markets Outlook Jonathan Jachym, Kraken's Global Head of Policy and Government Relations, joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to discuss the years-long journey to this milestone and what it means for the future of U.S. dollar settlement and institutional crypto adoption. Plus, Kraken's response to President Trump's recent calls for the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act and stop banks from "undercutting" American innovation. - Timecodes: 01:03 - Inside Kraken's Historic Fed Approval02:27 - The Four-Year Regulatory Journey04:40 - Bypassing Banks to Make Transfers Faster and Safer06:15 - Why Kraken Won Where Others Failed08:16 - Response to Pushback from Banks on Fed Master Accounts10:16 - Trump's CLARITY Act Push vs. The Banks - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Today we had the honor of welcoming three powerhouse guests from Lazard for an engaging discussion at the intersection of geopolitics, global security, and energy markets. Joining us were Admiral Bill McRaven, Retired Four-Star Admiral in the U.S. Navy and Senior Advisor at Lazard, Theodore Bunzel, Head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, and George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure. Bill is a Professor of National Security at the University of Texas Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and previously served as Chancellor of the University of Texas System. During his military career, he commanded special operations forces at every level and led U.S. Special Operations Command. He oversaw the missions to capture both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. He joined Lazard as a Senior Advisor in 2021. Teddy has spent his career at the intersection of international political and economic affairs and financial services. He joined Lazard from BlackRock and also serves as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. George Bilicic previously led Lazard's Midwest Advisory Business and has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business. His prior roles include senior positions at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy. Our conversation began with Bill's insights into the situation in Iran and the broader Middle East, including what we are learning four days in, the difference between a more “surgical” campaign and a broader strike strategy, and the ways Tehran may try to expand the conflict and prolong it. Bill shares his assessment of the military operation so far, why Iran's missile and drone response was expected, what surprised him tactically, how decentralizing command and control complicates targeting, and why regime change is far more complex than simply removing leadership. We explore the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the realities of stockpiles and logistics, the strain of sustained deployments, and what seamless U.S.-Israel military coordination signals to China and Russia as they assess this new geopolitical map. George outlines what this volatility is doing in boardrooms around the world, from capital allocation and cost of capital to supply chain realignment, tariff sensitivity, and the growing premium on reliable 24/7 power. Teddy explains how Lazard integrates real-time geopolitical analysis into client strategy, why regulatory decision-making is becoming more discretionary, how European leaders are grappling with structural energy vulnerability and higher costs, how allies and European boardrooms are reassessing U.S. reliability, and why “trusted supply” is becoming central to LNG contracting and long-term energy security. We end by looking at the uncertain path forward, including the limits of prediction, the sustainability of current operations, and how geopolitics is increasingly embedded in corporate decision-making. Thank you to Bill, Teddy, and George for the insightful and timely discussion. Mike Bradley started off by noting that this week's macro conversation has been dominated by U.S. military strikes against Iran and the potential short- and intermediate-term market fallout. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.06% (up 12 bps), while some perceived safe havens like gold and silver were ironically lower on the week. In crude, WTI spiked Tuesday to roughly $78/bbl before pulling back to around $74/bbl, amid reports that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut—halting approximately 15 mmbpd of oil shipments. Oil retraced from intraday highs as markets focused on President Trump proposing financial security and military escorts for tankers in and out of the Gulf, rather than an SPR release. Refined products moved sharply higher, with wholesale diesel, gasoline, and heating oil up roughly 20% this week. Globally, Qatari LNG was shut down for the first time in 30+ years, help

In an era of unprecedented business complexity, how do leaders position themselves for C-suite success while building resilient organizations? Byron Loflin, Global Head of Board Advisory at Nasdaq and co-author of the new book “CEO Ready: What You Need to Know to Earn the Job and Keep the Job,” joined us to discuss leading effectively through uncertainty, provide best practices for building high-impact leadership teams and explore succession planning strategies that work for organizations of any size. This session is for anyone looking to advance their career or strengthen their leadership effectiveness in today's dynamic business environment.Watch the original Wednesdays with Woodward® webinar: https://institute.travelers.com/webinar-series/symposia-series/leadership-growth. ---Visit the Travelers Institute® website: http://travelersinstitute.org/.Join the Travelers Institute® email list: https://travl.rs/488XJZM.Subscribe to the Travelers Institute® Podcast newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7328774828839100417. Connect with Travelers Institute® President Joan Woodward on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joan-kois-woodward/.

As electricity demand surges, geopolitical risks increase, and the physical impacts of climate change escalate, how are investors responding? In this episode, RBC Capital Markets' Global Head of Sustainable Finance Sarah Thompson reflects on the outlook for the market in the light of new global realities, in discussion with Moses Choi, Head of U.S. Sustainable Finance, and Stefano Vitali, Head of Europe and Asia Pacific Sustainable Finance.

Investors turned to gold and the US dollar in the wake of the Iran conflict, and Gulf states are panicking as Iran targets them in retaliatory strikes. Plus,can the US economy handle the surging oil prices caused by the attacks? Mentioned in this podcast:What will war in Iran do to the global economy?Panic in the Gulf as Iran lashes out at US alliesWhat will be in Rachel Reeves' spring outlook for the UK economy?Investors turn to gold, not bonds, as haven from war in IranHedge funds rethink emerging market bets after US-Israel strikes on IranNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Saffeya Ahmed and Nisha Patel. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The world is reeling after the US and Israel struck Iran over the weekend. The FT's Najmeh Bozorgmehr details the situation on the ground in Tehran. Then we explore how the renewed conflict affects the United States and the Middle East. Plus, the FT's Malcolm Moore explains the potential implications for the oil market and the global economy. Mentioned in this podcast:What will war in Iran do to the global economy?Tehran: a city at warOil jumps as Donald Trump vows to continue striking IranInsurers to cancel policies and raise prices for ships in Gulf and Strait of HormuzAyatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, 1939-2026After Khamenei, who rules Iran?Note: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig and edited by Marc Filippino. It was produced by Julia Webster. Our show was mixed by Alex Higgins. Additional help from Peter Barber. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  Is your cloud foundation ready for the explosion of AI workloads, or are you about to scale technical debt at the speed of innovation? In this episode, I'm joined by Apurva Kadakia, Global Head of Cloud and Partnerships at Hexaware, an AI-first transformation company helping enterprises modernize the core systems that will determine whether their AI strategies succeed or stall. With a front-row seat to large-scale cloud programs across industries, Apurva explains why so many organizations that "moved to the cloud" still find themselves unprepared for what comes next, and why modernization-led migration has become a business priority rather than a technology upgrade. We unpack the real warning signs that cloud environments are not fit for AI, from monolithic architectures and spiraling compute costs to hidden integration complexity and security gaps that only surface at scale. Apurva introduces the idea of "clarity before cloud," a structured approach to understanding sprawling application estates, identifying what truly matters to the business, and matching each workload to the right modernization path using the five R's. It's a conversation that moves beyond theory into the practical decisions leaders need to make now if they want to avoid being locked out of future innovation. The role of AI inside the transformation journey is another major theme. Rather than treating AI as a destination, Apurva shares how AI-led and human-perfected assessment models are already accelerating application discovery, classification, and migration planning, completing the majority of the heavy lifting while keeping human judgment firmly in control. We also explore why governance cannot be an afterthought, and how a dedicated Cloud Transformation Office can drive adoption, reskilling, stakeholder alignment, and data readiness without slowing delivery. Looking ahead to a world of agentic systems and rapidly multiplying cloud workloads, this episode offers a clear message. The organizations that win will not be the ones that adopted cloud first, but the ones that modernized with intent. So as AI moves from experimentation to enterprise scale, are your applications, your architecture, and your operating model truly ready to support it, or is now the moment to rethink your path before the next wave hits?      

Our Deputy Head of Global Research Michael Zezas and Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, discuss how the U.S. is positioning AI as a pillar of geopolitical influence and what that means for nations and investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Head of Global Research.Stephen Byrd: And I'm Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.Michael Zezas: Today – is AI becoming the new anchor of geopolitical power?It's Wednesday, February 27th at noon in New York.So, Stephen, at the recent India AI Impact Summit, the U.S. laid out a vision to promote global AI adoption built around what it calls “real AI sovereignty.” Or strategic autonomy through integration with the American AI stack. But several nations from the global south and possibly parts of Europe – they appear skeptical of dependence on proprietary systems, citing concerns about control, explainability, and data ownership. And it appears that stake isn't just technology policy. It's the future structure of global power, economic stratification, and whether sovereign nations can realistically build competitive alternatives outside the U.S. and China.So, Stephen, you were there and you've been describing a growing chasm in the AI world in terms of access to strategies between the U.S. and much of the global south, and possibly Europe. So, from what you heard at the summit, what are the core points of disagreement driving that divide?Stephen Byrd: There definitely are areas of agreement; and we've seen a couple of high-profile agreements reached between the U.S. government and the Indian government just in the last several days. So there certainly is a lot of overlap. I point to the Pax Silica agreement that's so important to secure supply chains, to secure access to AI technology. I think the focus, for example, for India is, as you said; it is, you know, explainability, open access. I was really struck by Prime Minister Modi's focus on ensuring that all Indians have access to AI tools that can help them in their everyday life.You know, a really tangible example that really stuck with me is – someone in a remote village in India who has a medical condition and there's no doctor or nurse nearby using AI to, you know, take a photo of the condition, receive diagnosis, receive support, figure out what the next steps should be. That's very powerful. So, I'd say, open access explainability is very important.Now, the American hyperscalers are very much trying to serve the Indian market and serve the objectives really of the Indian government. And so, there are versions of their models that are open weights, that are being made freely available for health agencies in India, as an example; to the Indian government, as an example.So, there is an attempt to really serve a number of objectives, but I think this key is around open access, explainability, that I do see that there's a tension.Michael Zezas: So, let's talk about that a little bit more. Because it seems one of the concerns raised is this idea of being captive within proprietary Large Language Models. And maybe that includes the risk of having to pay more over time or losing control of citizen data. But, at the same time, you've described that there are some real benefits to AI that these countries want to adopt.So, what is effectively the tension between being captive to a model or the trade off instead for pursuing open and free models? Is it that there's a major quality difference? And is that trade off acceptable?Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so fascinating, Mike, is, you know, what we need to be thinking about is not just where the technology is today, but where is it in six months, 12 months, 24 months? And from my perspective, it's very clear. That the proprietary American models are going to be much, much more capable.So, let's put some numbers around that. The big five American firms have assembled about 10 times the compute to train their current LLMs compared to their prior LLMs, and that's a big deal. If the scaling laws hold, then a 10x increase in training compute to result in models are about twice as capable.Now just let that sink in for a minute, twice as capable from here. That's a big deal. And so, when we think about the benefit of deploying these models, whether it's in the life sciences or any number of other disciplines, those benefits could start to get very large. And the challenge for the open models will be – will they be able to keep up in terms of access to compute, to training, access to data to train those models? That's a big question.Now, again, there's room for both approaches and it's very possible for the Indian government to continue to experiment and really see which approach is going to serve their citizens the best. And I was really struck by just how focused the Indian government is on serving all of their citizens. Most notably, you know, the poorest of the poor in their nation. So, we'll just have to see.But the pure technologist would say that these proprietary models are going to be increasing capability much faster than the open-source models.So, Mike, let's pivot from the technology layer to the geopolitical layer because the U.S. strategy unveiled at the summit goes way beyond innovation.Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's a good point. And within this discussion of whether or not other countries will choose to pursue open models or more closely adhere to U.S. based models is really a question about how the United States exercises power globally and how it creates alliances going forward.Clearly some part of the strategy is that the U.S. assumes that if it has technology that's alluring to its partners, that they'll want to align with the U.S.' broad goals globally. And that they'll want to be partners in supporting those goals, which of course are tied to AI development.So, the Pax Silica [agreement], which you mentioned earlier, is an interesting point here because this is clearly part of the U.S. strategy to develop relationships with other countries – such that the other countries get access to U.S. models and access to U.S. AI in general. And what the U.S. gets in return is access to supply chain, critical resources, labor, all the things that you need to further the AI build out. Particularly as the U.S. is trying to disassociate more and more from China, and the resources that China might have been able to bring to bear in an AI build out.Stephen Byrd: So, Mike, the U.S. framed “real AI sovereignty” as strategic autonomy rather than full self-sufficiency. So, essentially the. U.S. is encouraging nations to integrate components of the American AI stack. Now, from your perspective, Mike, from a macro and policy standpoint, how significant is that distinction?Michael Zezas: Well, I think it's extremely important. And clearly the U.S. views its AI strategy as not just economic strategy, but national security strategy.There are maybe some analogs to how the U.S. has been able to, over the past 80 years or so, use its dominance in military and military equipment to create a security umbrella that other countries want to be under. And do something similar with AI, which is if there is dominant technology and others want access to it for the societal or economic benefits, then that is going to help when you're negotiating with those countries on other things that you value – whether it be trade policy, foreign policy, sanctions versus another country. That type of thing.So, in a lot of ways, it seems like the U.S. is talking about AI and developing AI as an anchor asset to its power, in a way that military power has been that anchor asset for much of the post World War II period.Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so interesting, Mike, [be]cause you've highlighted before to me that you believe AI could replace weaponry as really the anchor asset for U.S. global power. Almost a tech equivalent of a defense umbrella.So how durable is that strategy, especially given that some countries are expressing unease about dependency?Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's really hard to know, and I think the tension you and I talked about earlier, Stephen, about whether countries will be willing to make the trade off for access to superior AI models versus open and free models that might be inferior, that'll tell us if this is a viable strategy or not. And it appears like this is still playing out because, correct me if I'm wrong, it's not like we've received some very clear signals from India or other countries about their willingness to make that trade off.Stephen Byrd: No, I think that's right. And just building on the concept of the trade-offs and, sort of, the standard for AI deployment, you know, the U.S. has explicitly rejected centralized global AI governance in favor of national control aligned with domestic values.So, what does that signal about how global technology standards may evolve, particularly as in the U.S., the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, works to develop interoperable standards for agentic AI systems.Michael Zezas: Yeah, Stephen, I think it's hard to know. It might be that the U.S. is okay with other countries having substantial degrees of freedom with how they use U.S.-based AI models because they could use U.S. law to, at a later date, change how those models are being used – if there's a use case that comes out of it that they find is against U.S. values. Similar in some way to how the U.S. dollar being the predominant currency and, therefore, being the predominant payment system globally, gives the U.S. degrees of freedom to impose sanctions and limit other types of economic transactions when it's in the U.S. interest.So, I don't know that to be specifically true, but it's an interesting question to consider and a potential motivation behind why a laissez-faire approach might be, ultimately, still aligned with U.S. interests.Stephen Byrd: So, Michael, it sounds like really AI is becoming the new strategic infrastructure globally.Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's actually a great way to think about it. And so, Stephen, if that were the case, and we're talking about the potential for this to shape geopolitical competition, potentially economic differentials across the globe. And if that is correlated, at least, to some degree with the further development and computing power of these models, what do you think investors should be looking at for signals from here?Stephen Byrd: Number one, by a mile for me, is really the pace of model progress. Not just American models, but Chinese models, open-source models. And there the big reveal for the United States should be somewhere between April and June – for the big five LLM players. That's a bit of speculation based on tracking their chip purchases, their power access, et cetera. But that appears to be the timeframe and a couple of execs have spoken to that approximate timeframe.I would caution investors that I think we're going to be surprised in terms of just how powerful those models are. And we're already seeing in early 2026, these models that were not trained on that kind of volume of compute have really exceeded expectations, you know, quite dramatically in some cases. And I'll give you one example.METR is a third-party that tracks the complexity, what these models can do. And METR has been highlining that every seven months, the complexity of what these models are able to do approximately doubles. It's very fast. But what really got my attention was about a week ago, one of the LLMs broke that trend in a big way to the upside.So, if the scaling laws would hold, based on what METR would've expected, they would expect a model to be able to act independently for about eight hours, a little over eight hours. And what we saw was, the best American model that was recently introduced was more like 15. That's a big deal. And so, I think we're seeing signs of non-linear improvement.We're also going to see additional statements from these AI execs around recursive self-improvement of the models. One ex-AI executive spoke to that. Another LLM exec spoke to that recently as well. So, we're starting to see an acceleration. That means we then need to really consider the trade-offs between the open models and the proprietary. That's going to become really critical and that should happen really through the spring and summer.Michael Zezas: Got it. Well, Stephen, thanks for taking the time to talk.Stephen Byrd: Great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Kraken's Mark Greenberg joins CoinDesk Live to announce a $20 billion milestone in tokenized equity volume and explain how xStocks is dismantling the traditional brokerage model through 24/7 fractional trading. Mark Greenberg, Kraken's VP of xStocks and Global Head of Consumer, joins CoinDesk Live at Consensus Hong Kong to announce a $20 billion milestone in tokenized equity volume. He explains how xStocks is dismantling the traditional brokerage model by allowing users to buy fractional shares of Tesla and the S&P 500 directly within everyday apps. Greenberg discusses the 24/7 trading advantage, the roadmap for adding Hong Kong stocks, and why tokenized equities are becoming the preferred asset class for retail investors across Asia. - This episode was hosted live by Jennifer Sanasie and Dave Lavalle at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, presented by Hex Trust.

Paramount Skydance is poised to triumph in its bid to buy Warner Bros Discovery after Netflix said it would not boost its offer, tech companies are increasingly turning to loans backed by the chips on which their large language models are trained and the FT's George Steer explains how Wall Street is hedging against the tech stock sell-off . Plus, Berkshire Hathaway's new chief executive will send his first letter to investors on Saturday. Mentioned in this podcast:Paramount poised to clinch Warner Bros deal after Netflix walks awayTech groups turn to more chip-backed loans to fund AI arms raceWall Street turns to complex trades to dodge AI ‘implosions'Warren Buffett hands over Berkshire Hathaway's reins to Greg AbelBehind the Money podcast: Berkshire after BuffettNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Fiona Symon, Victoria Craig, and Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Gavin Kallmann and Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Unpacking the regulatory path forward for prediction markets with Coinbase Litigation Head Ryan VanGrack. Coinbase's VP of Legal and Global Head of Litigation, Ryan VanGrack, joins Jennifer Sanasie and Renato Mariotti to discuss why the company is challenging state regulators to ensure a unified federal framework for prediction markets. He also shares why he believes bipartisan market structure legislation is still on the table despite recent setbacks. - Timestamps: 01:10 - The CFTC's Response to Kalshi's Insider Trading Accusations02:38 - Why Coinbase is Suing the States03:41 - Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting08:14 - The States Are "Gaslighting" the Public on Prediction Markets11:31 - Is Market Structure Still Possible?15:58 - Addressing Concerns About Coinbase's Role in Stalled Market Structure Legislation - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie and Renato Mariotti .