Podcasts about global head

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets examines what rising rates could mean for equity valuations, earnings and investor appetite.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, thinking about equity resilience in the face of rising bond yields. It's Friday, October 2nd at 2pm in London. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 100 basis points this year. Global equities, at the same time, are up about 13 percent. And those two facts sit in an uncomfortable tension. After all, higher bond yields give investors better return options elsewhere, and they also make future corporate profits worth less today, which in theory should push stock prices lower.But there's a wrinkle here. That valuation theory actually has two moving parts. What we're referring to here is what we would call a dividend discount model or a Gordon Growth Model, where the value of a company today is worth the value of its dividends divided by the difference of its required rate of return and its growth rate. The higher the required rate of return, which interest rates push up, hurts a stock valuation. It increases the denominator. But a higher growth rate, well, that works in the opposite direction. That decreases the denominator. It makes the company worth more. Hopefully, this is intuitive. if a company has to meet a higher return hurdle, it will be worth less today. If a company's growing faster, all else equal, it's worth more. And that, we think, goes a long way to actually explain what's going on in markets today. Because corporate profits are growing quickly. Over the last year, profits for the S&P 500 are up about 30 percent, and the earnings growth for the median company, well, that's still up in the mid-teens. Growth in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets have also been historically strong. Indeed, if you'd told me on January 1st that the S&P 500 would be up about 13 percent, and at the same time, U.S. Treasury yields would be up about 100 basis points, I probably would have told you with reasonable confidence that stocks would look more expensive relative to bonds. But they don't. The valuation of the equity market, the P/E ratio, has fallen significantly as yields have risen. But because earnings have risen so much more, stocks are still higher. And the so-called equity risk premium, the difference between the earnings yield and the bond yield, it's pretty stable year to date. Now there's another way that higher yields could hurt the stock market. They could simply cause people to sell their stocks and buy those higher yielding bonds. But so far, we're not seeing evidence of that. The flows that we track continue to show money flowing into both stocks and bonds. And the two markets are moving in the same direction day to day. They're showing positive correlation, which is not the outcome you'd expect if people were shifting money from one to the other. There's also an interesting way that companies have a say in this debate. Investors every day look at the market and decide if these yields are high enough that they want to buy them. But companies look at the same yield and say, "Is this low enough that we would want to sell?" And so especially for the companies that are funding the AI build-out – these large technology companies with so much AI spending to do. Many of them, even at these higher yields, are still saying these are attractive levels to issue at. And are more attractive than, say, issuing more stock. The other factor that's always important to keep in mind whenever we're debating long-term valuation questions between stocks and bonds, or really any asset class, is that valuation is a slow-moving force. It is often not terribly predictive of the next six or even 12 months. Indeed, if we think about the difference between the earnings yield on the equity market, the inverse of the P/E ratio, and what the bond market yields, that difference. Well, that difference only explains about 10 percent of returns between stocks and bonds over the next month. Now, valuation is more powerful the longer you give it. And so, extend that horizon out over the next three years and that valuation gap between bonds and equities, well, explains about half the three-year outcome. Markets are not equations that are solved once a quarter. They are ongoing arguments about the future. And when growth is strong, investors are simply more willing to give growth and that future potential the benefit of the doubt. We think this goes a long way to helping to explain the equity market's resilience despite Treasury yields moving well above five percent. But it's also raising the bar. Higher yields simply leave less room for earnings disappointment. Those profits need to keep growing quickly. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys explore how AI could expand advisor capacity and tokenized assets could grow into a $2.3 trillion market by 2030.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers, and Exchanges Research at Morgan Stanley. Betsy Graseck: Today, we're looking at the next phase of growth across asset and wealth management – and how tokenization, AI, and changing investor flows could reshape the industry. It's Thursday, October 1st at 9am in New York City. Assets under management, or AUM, are near record highs across the globe, with a lot changing beneath the surface. Now, much of the recent AUM growth has come from markets rather than from net new client flows. And meanwhile, fees do remain under pressure. At the same time, technologies like AI and tokenization are creating new opportunities for both asset and wealth managers. Our base case has tokenized real world assets growing from roughly [$]40 billion today to about [$]2.3 trillion by 2030. Mike, let's start with tokenization. What are the use cases that matter most near term? Michael Cyprys: So, as we think about it, there's a number of use cases that we see. The most compelling ones really are around cash treasuries and collateral. Take for example, earning yield. Some tokenized funds allow you to earn interest by the minute or the second that is invested rather than having to remain invested by that 4pm cutoff that is the case today. Another benefit is allowing collateral to move around a lot more easily, and this can help support a shift toward 24/7 markets. So, if securities can trade 24/7 – or derivatives – you may also need the cash leg of that transaction to keep pace. Right now, there are certain futures contracts that do trade over a weekend, but those positions do need to be pre-funded on Friday. So that's going to limit perhaps the full uptake for that of 24/7 until you can get the movement of the collateral to keep pace. And that's where tokenization can come in to help solve a real market need. There's also trapped collateral that's just sitting around the world, where institutions and corporates just keep pockets of liquidity in different places just in case they need it at a moment's notice. There's a cost to that while it sits idle. But tokenization can allow for just more just-in-time movement of money, say with tokenized deposits, tokenized money funds, or stable coins. And another use case is around investors outside the U.S. that may not have as easy access to U.S. markets. But tokenization can help lower barriers, reduce frictions, and allow for greater access to U.S. market exposure. Private markets get a lot of attention, but we think that's maybe a little bit further out. So, to put some numbers around this, today there's around [$]40 billion of tokenized real-world assets. So, think tokenized stocks, bonds, funds. In our base case, we could see that growing to about [$]2.3 trillion by 2030, with a vast majority tied to these collateral mobility and reserve and treasury management use cases. Betsy Graseck: Pulling up a notch, we are expecting assets under management to reach about [$]247 trillion by 2030. But revenue growth is expected to lag asset growth. Mike, what really separates the firms that can grow above market trends you expect? Michael Cyprys: Yeah. So, as you said, most of the growth is going to be driven by market beta, right? So, we have expectation for about 9 percent growth annually in assets under management for about $160 trillion globally today to about $250 trillion by 2030. We expect about three-quarters of that growth rate comes from market beta, which leaves you around 2.5 percent for organic asset growth. So, growing just AUM with the market is not going to really be enough to differentiate. And so, as we think about, you know, how one can differentiate? First, I think it comes down to where one is positioned across the industry. We do see flows concentrating in passive solutions and selected private markets, and the economics can be pretty different there as well. Another way to differentiate is through distribution. Wealth, retirement, model portfolios, customized solutions, all of those channels are becoming much more important. And so, you want to be closer to where that asset allocation decision is actually getting made. And another point of differentiation is around operating leverage, and that's where AI comes in, which I'm sure is a topic we're going to get to in a little bit. That we think can help allow money managers to expand research coverage, can allow salespeople to cover more clients, allow for adding more products and customization without adding necessarily a lot more people and cost at the same rate. So, look, bottom line, I'd say, we think above market growth from having the right products, the right distribution, getting them in front of the right clients, and the technology to scale that just a lot more efficiently. Betsy Graseck: And how important is that AI tool going to be, in your opinion, for separating yourself from the pack? And is it more top-line generative or cost efficiency generative? Michael Cyprys: I think it's critical. It's both. I think it changes the competitive game because a lot of the economics are very different across the businesses, right? Take passive and index investing, for example, that continues to take share. It's a low-fee business, so there scale really matters. In solutions and private markets, the revenue opportunity is better, but you need more capabilities and distribution reach. And in private markets, origination is also key, as well as distribution, right? You can have private credit or an infrastructure product out there in the marketplace. But if you can't get it into a wealth or retirement or insurance channels, then you're leaving a lot of growth on the table. And then with traditional active, performance still matters, but the wrapper is key. Distribution matters more so than ever, and active ETFs are a great example of that. Betsy Graseck: And one question on AI is: How far along do you think it is in your coverage embedded already in the workflow and the processes across your group, your asset managers? Michael Cyprys: So, we're pretty early days here. A lot of firms, already have AI tools today: RFP tools, sales tools, tools within the operational and distribution side. But saving someone, you know, 10 minutes on a task doesn't necessarily show up in the P&L, right? You need to start removing entire steps from workflows. And then using that time savings to cover more clients, to launch more products, do more research, and ultimately slow the pace of hiring. And that's where we think the industry needs to move towards, away from these, sort of, point solutions into an enterprise workflow. And that is tools that connect across the entire organization, underpinned by the same data and the same controls. And our work suggests that this could be pretty meaningful over time, perhaps up to as much as 15 points worth of operating margin improvement – for the leaders over time. But we don't assume that all falls to the bottom line. We expect it to – you know, a lot of that's going to get reinvested, and a portion probably also gets competed away. And when we look at our forecasts for the money managers we cover, I'd say we have modest improvement in operating margins over the next couple of years. And, to your point, on cost versus revenue, we may actually see it on the revenue side first, as it can help allow for more client touches, broader coverage, and faster product development. Betsy Graseck: Okay. So, or as you mentioned, early days. How do you see AI and tokenization impacting either the leverage opportunities, the operating leverage opportunities, or the revenue growth opportunities? Let's start with AI. Michael Cyprys: We think that the potential here is to really improve the capacity to serve clients. As you think about today, the time that advisors spend actually not talking to clients, right? When you think about time that they're spending on meeting prep or research, notes, follow-ups, onboarding. And that's a lot of administrative work that is wrapped up, in terms of the advisor's relationship there. And our work suggests that call it about half of that advisor time could be freed up. Then advisor capacity could increase upwards of 30 to 40 percent on our numbers, and that can also increase the quality and the experience that the clients receive. We also see a broader opportunity beyond just the advisor. As you look across the advisor team and the organization, we see an overall cost to serve to come down quite materially. And I know this is a question you didn't ask it, but that's out there. We don't see AI replacing financial advisors, particularly at the higher end, just given the importance of that trusted relationship. And if anything, the value of that advisor probably goes up, particularly just given there's so much change happening around the world every which way you look. And then you overlay that with the aging demographic trends. We actually think there could be a bull market for advice as we look ahead. And AI could be that tool to enable the industry to execute on that market opportunity set and also help expand the TAM in terms of the ability of the industry to capture that opportunity set and bring advice to more people than was ever possible before. Betsy Graseck: And this would be incremental to your growth outlook that you indicated earlier of 7 percent? Michael Cyprys: This could be incremental… Betsy Graseck: Okay! Michael Cyprys: ... to that opportunity potentially over time. Betsy Graseck: Anything on tokenization that is an opportunity for wealth managers? Michael Cyprys: Oh, absolutely. And I think that we're really, really early days; just scratching the surface on this in tokenization and wealth. You know, I think one way to frame tokenization and wealth is it could just make the client balance sheet that much more productive. And this creates some risk as we talk about in the report for the traditional wealth model with respect to sweep cash and the monetization of that, right? If clients hold less idle cash, that could put some pressure on deposit and sweep economics. But that could also be offset by new lending opportunities at the same time. So, wealth firms need to be able to support tokenized assets and lending capabilities without losing that client relationship to someone else's platform. And that's why longer term, the wallet or the client interface becomes pretty important – because that's where the investments, cash borrowing, payments, all of that comes together. Betsy Graseck: And all of this happening right ahead of Nasdaq and NYSE's December 6th, a big event. Michael Cyprys: That's right. U.S. equity markets are going 23/5 on December 6th. Betsy Graseck: Meaning that the only hours they will be closed every day are between... Michael Cyprys: 8 and 9pm. Betsy Graseck: And that's on a pathway to 24/7 ultimately, you believe? Michael Cyprys: That's our expectation, as you have other disruptors around the world that are looking to provide retail with access to 24/7 markets. Betsy Graseck: Exciting times, Mike. As you indicated in the beginning, we have 79 percent growth with AI and tokenization potentially amping that up ahead of a pathway to a 24/7 market. Michael Cyprys: Indeed. Betsy Graseck: Thank you so much for joining us here on Thoughts on the Market, Mike. Michael Cyprys: It's been great speaking with you, Betsy. Betsy Graseck: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Commercial real estate has moved from downturn to recovery, but the gains are uneven. Rich Hill of Principal Asset Management joins Michael Bull, CCIM to map where the opportunities are. Rich Hill is Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, which manages roughly $110 billion of commercial real estate globally. He explains why US total returns have risen for about 8 consecutive quarters, why real estate cycles average around 16 years, and why net operating income growth will drive returns in a cycle with little room left for cap rate compression. Beneath muted headline returns, the top quartile of properties is performing well while the bottom quartile has failed to launch. Rich walks through the US housing mismatch and a selective view on Class A apartments, build-to-rent under the ROAD to Housing Act, senior housing demand from the growing 70+ population, and why power centers and unanchored retail look attractive. On office, 90% of vacancy sits in 30% of buildings and 40% of buildings have no vacancy at all. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Rich and Michael discuss why properties trading below replacement cost are holding back new supply, and why commercial real estate worked for decades with Treasury rates at 4% to 5%. In this episode: 00:00  Where Are the Commercial Real Estate Opportunities? 01:32  CRE Recovery: 8 Quarters of Rising Returns and 16-Year Cycles 03:48  Muted Headline Returns and the Dispersion Underneath 06:28  Selective Conviction and the US Housing Mismatch 08:35  Class A Apartments, Class B Value-Add, and AI Job Risk 09:55  Build-to-Rent and the ROAD to Housing Act 10:59  Senior Housing: The Growing 70+ Population 12:01  Retail Real Estate: Power Centers and Unanchored Centers 14:13  AI, White-Collar Jobs, and the Office Market 16:40  Below Replacement Cost: Why New Supply Has Stalled 18:37  Investing With a 5% 10-Year Treasury 19:46  Back to Normal: CRE at 4% to 5% Treasury Rates Connect with Rich Hill: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hill-2156387/ Principal Asset Management Website: https://www.principalam.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CREOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #BuildToRent #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #SeniorHousing #InterestRates #PrincipalAssetManagement #CREShow

In this episode of Milk Road Crypto, John Gillen sits down with Max Bareiss, Head of Lending at Galaxy, and Greg Feibus, Global Head of Capital Markets at Sky Frontier Foundation, to break down what the Galaxy-Sky partnership means for institutional DeFi. They explain why Galaxy is using sUSDS for treasury management, how yield-bearing assets could become institutional collateral, and why Sky wants sUSDS to function as an “onchain Treasury bill” for crypto markets.~~~~~⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Rachel Lowenstein is a leading independent cultural strategist and content creator. For over a decade she has worked at the intersection of culture, brand, and girlhood, helping the world's most influential companies understand how culture is moving, especially for women/girls. Top brands including Nike, Google, Unilever, Dove, Essity, Meta, Chief, and UN Women trust her expertise to grow their brands and their cultural impact. Before building her own consultancy, she spent a decade at WPP/Mindshare, rising to Global Head of Inclusive Innovation, a role created for her. As a content creator, she has built an audience of 160,000+ followers across social media decoding girls, business and culture. Brands including TED and Tracksuit partner with Rachel for her cultural expertise and engaged audience. Rachel is also the creator of Girl Studies, a Substack for the serious study of girl culture and its commercial, social, and behavioral implications.She has spoken on prestigious stages at the United Nations, Cannes Lions, SXSW, CES, DK Festival Croatia, Mumbrella Sydney, Advertising Week, Yale, and Arizona State University. Her work has been recognized on Ad Age's 40 Under 40 (2023) and Advertising Week's Female Is Female Award (2022). She has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Ad Age, Adweek, Campaign, The Observer, Slate, Glossy and Business Insider for her insights.

Is something big happening in debt markets? Seb Morton-Clark talks to Fidelity International's Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation Salman Ahmed about the future of government debt burdens and how they might be paid off.Credits Producers: Patrick Graham, Holli Eastman, Rachel Reed Studio: Adam Sheldrake, Pete Rees Editor: Connor BaillieSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Worries about public debt have come back to haunt markets, along with a new stream of issuance from the tech companies spending billions on AI. Yet with yields higher than they've been in years, at some point they should appeal to investors who want stable solid returns. Seb Morton-Clark asks fixed income portfolio managers James Durance and Tim Foster how much longer we should fear the longer end of the bond curve. With contributions from Fidelity International's Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation Salman Ahmed and Analyst Sukhy Kaur.Credits Producers: Patrick Graham, Holli Eastman, Rachel Reed Studio: Adam Sheldrake, Pete Rees Editor: Connor BaillieSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special Cannes edition of Future Proof, Nicole Jones is joined by Phillipa Leighton-Jones, SVP, Global Head of Studio & Creative and Chief Custom Anchor at The Wall Street Journal, to explore how AI is transforming the way people discover information, consume media and engage with brands.Drawing on new research from WSJ Intelligence, Phillipa shares insights into changing consumer behaviours, the growing role of AI-powered search, and why trust, credibility and quality journalism remain critical in a world increasingly shaped by machine-generated answers. Together, they discuss the evolving relationship between publishers, platforms and brands, and what marketers need to do to remain visible, relevant and trusted as the media landscape continues to change. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is something big happening in debt markets? Seb Morton-Clark talks to Fidelity International's Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation Salman Ahmed about the future of government debt burdens and how they might be paid off.Credits Producers: Patrick Graham, Holli Eastman, Rachel Reed Studio: Adam Sheldrake, Pete Rees Editor: Connor BaillieSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Worries about public debt have come back to haunt markets, along with a new stream of issuance from the tech companies spending billions on AI. Yet with yields higher than they've been in years, at some point they should appeal to investors who want stable solid returns. Seb Morton-Clark asks fixed income portfolio managers James Durance and Tim Foster how much longer we should fear the longer end of the bond curve. With contributions from Fidelity International's Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation Salman Ahmed and Analyst Sukhy Kaur.Credits Producers: Patrick Graham, Holli Eastman, Rachel Reed Studio: Adam Sheldrake, Pete Rees Editor: Connor BaillieSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

GUEST BIO:Jim Russell is a transformational leader with 35+ years shaping the meetings and events industry. A former EVP at Freeman and VP at PSAV, he brings deep expertise in global P&L leadership, client experience innovation, and behavioral science informed engagement. Jim currently serves as Chair of MPI's International Board of Directors and is founder of Veterans in Ascension, a nonprofit supporting the veteran community. HIRE THEM TO SPEAK:Follow Jim Russell: LinkedIn BioFollow Scott Bloom: eSpeakers BioFollow eSpeakers: eSpeakers Marketplace ABOUT NO MORE BAD EVENTS:Brought to you by eSpeakers and hosted by professional emcee, host, and keynote speaker Scott Bloom, No More Bad Events is where you'll hear from some of the top names in the event and speaking industry about what goes on behind the scenes at the world's most perfectly executed conferences, meetings, and more. Get ready to learn the secrets and strategies to help anyone in the event industry reach their goal of putting on nothing less than world-class events. Learn more at nomorebadevents.com. ABOUT THE HOST:A veteran comedian and television personality who has built a reputation as the go-to choice for business humor, Scott has hosted hundreds of events over two decades for big and small organizations alike. Scott has also hosted his own weekly VH1 series and recently co-hosted a national simulcast of the Grammy Awards from the Palace Theater.As the son of a successful salesman, he was exposed to the principles of building a business at an early age. As a comedian, Scott cut his teeth at renowned improv and comedy clubs. As a self-taught student of psychology, he's explored what makes people tick and has written a book (albeit a farce) on how to get through life. He's uniquely positioned to deliver significant notes on connecting people and making business seriously funny. And who doesn't like to laugh? Learn more about Scott: scottbloomconnects.com PRODUCED BY eSpeakers:When the perfect speaker is in front of the right audience, a kind of magic happens where organizations and individuals improve in substantial, long-term ways. eSpeakers exists to make this happen more often. eSpeakers is where the speaking industry does business on the web. Speakers, speaker managers, associations, and bureaus use our tools to organize, promote, and grow successful businesses. Event organizers think of eSpeakers first when they want to hire speakers for their meetings or events.The eSpeakers Marketplace technology lets us and our partner directories help meeting professionals worldwide connect directly with speakers for great engagements. Thousands of successful speakers, trainers, and coaches use eSpeakers to build their businesses and manage their calendars. Thousands of event organizers use our directories every day to find and hire speakers. Our tools are built for speakers, by speakers, to do things that only purpose-built systems can.Learn more at eSpeakers.com. SHOW CREDITS: Scott Bloom: Host | scottbloomconnects.comJoe Heaps: eSpeakers | jheaps@eSpeakers.com

In this week's episode of the Xtalks Life Science Podcast, host Soumya Shashikumar speaks with Anne-Cécile Chevrier, Global Head, Injectable Aesthetics at Galderma, about the science of skin quality and why the field is increasingly looking at “skin longevity” — keeping skin healthier, more functional and resilient for longer. Anne-Cécile explains that skin quality is about how skin looks, feels and functions, including hydration, firmness, radiance and texture. She also discusses how menopause and medication-driven weight loss can affect the skin. Tune in to hear Anne-Cécile explain the simple “pinch test” clinicians can use to assess skin laxity, why she believes more education is needed around menopause-related skin changes and how more personalized, data-informed approaches could shape the future of skin longevity. For more life science and medical device content, visit the Xtalks Vitals homepage. https://xtalks.com/vitals/ For more life science and medical device content, visit the Xtalks Vitals homepage. https://xtalks.com/vitals/ Follow Us on Social Media Twitter: https://twitter.com/Xtalks Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/xtalks/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Xtalks.Webinars/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/xtalks-webconferences YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/XtalksWebinars/featured

Most conversations about the circular economy stay at altitude. Materials in use, value retained, waste designed out. All true, and none of it tells you what actually has to change on a Tuesday morning at a working facility. The idea itself is straightforward: instead of continually extracting resources, using them, and throwing them away, what if we could keep more of those materials in use? For industry, that can mean less waste to manage, fewer resources to buy, more resilient supply chains—and new value from materials that once represented only a cost. In this episode of the Optimistic Outlook, Eryn Devola, Global Head of Sustainability for Siemens Digital Industries, sits down with Paul Coyne, CCO of Envetec to bring that idea down to earth. One company. One waste stream. What it cost before, what it costs now, and whoinside the customer organization had to sign off on doing it differently. The conversation gets at a claim that sounds simple and turns out not to be: waste is a design flaw. If a material leaving a facility has no value, that is not necessarily inevitable. It is the result of decisions made earlier, usually by people who were never asked to think about the end of the line. Changing that requires more than better waste disposal. It means designing processes differently, understanding where materials go, and using technology to identify opportunities to keep them in circulation. The payoff can be both environmental and economic: reducing waste while getting more value from the resources industry already uses. The conversation covers: What a waste stream actually costs a facility once transport, compliance, and handling are counted How companies can begin turning waste from a disposal cost into a material with potential value Who inside a large organization has to approve a change like this, and why that is usually the hard part rather than the technology Where digital tools make material flows visible enough to act on What would have to change upstream, at the design stage, for this problem to stop being created in the first place This is a practical look at what the circular economy actually means on the factory floor—and how changing the way industry designs, uses, and reuses materials can turn less waste into greater value. Show notes Home/ Clean Change Through Biohazardous Waste Recycling / Envetec GENERATIONS Case Study - Scottish Water - Envetec Video - Envetec GENERATIONS: ⁠https://youtu.be/r5-PzEabqgo

Recorded live at Black Hat 2026, this episode features Sarah Gosler, Managing Director and Head of Cyber Resiliency and Human Defense at Wells Fargo. Sarah explains why humans are the largest attack surface and how—when AI has industrialized social engineering and cybersecurity is an "everybody problem"—the role of the CISO has shifted to encompass both the technical and the operational. Sarah makes the case that the more automated attacks get, the more the human side of defense matters.Before Wells Fargo, Sarah was Global Head of Cyber Human Defense and Readiness Products at BNY Mellon, where she built the firm's first commercial cyber product and earned two patents for a dynamic wargaming system. A former chief marketing officer, she brings a user-experience lens to cyber defense and is a featured cast member in Semperis' new documentary Midnight in the War Room.Guest Bio Sarah Gosler is a senior cybersecurity executive focused on cyber resiliency and the human dimension of institutional risk. Her work is grounded in a simple premise: systems break — what matters is whether the organization holds.As Managing Director and Head of Cyber Resiliency & Human Defense at Wells Fargo, Sarah leads initiatives that strengthen how the firm prepares for and responds to cyber incidents. She integrates advanced wargaming, human defense strategy, and behavioral science to enhance institutional coordination, executive decision-making, and organizational performance under stress.Previously, at the Bank of New York, she built and scaled the firm's global Cyber Human Defense program and pioneered its first commercial cyber readiness product, earning two patents in cyber wargaming and advancing industry approaches to social engineering resilience.Sarah is a frequent keynote speaker, media contributor, and published author of white papers on the psychological and organizational dimensions of cyber risk. She is widely recognized for bridging technical resilience with executive leadership and dynamics — shaping how financial institutions address cyber as both a technological and human challenge.With more than two decades at the intersection of finance, technology, and organizational performance, Sarah continues to influence the global conversation on institutional resilience, crisis leadership, and the evolving human front line of cyber defense.Guest Quote “I'm such a big advocate of making sure people don't say that humans are the weakest link. Humans represent the largest attack surface of any company. And so, if you think about it, if that's the biggest attack surface, but you're calling it the weakest link, you're really setting yourself up to fail.”Time stamps 00:30 Meet Sarah Gosler 03:46 Why Weakest Link Is the Wrong Framing 06:18 A Marketing Approach to Cybersecurity 07:30 The Cyber Villains Series 10:02 Cyber Is an Everybody Problem 14:36 Deepfakes on the Rise 15:32 Safe Words as a Cyber Defense 16:41 Sarah's Video Game Creation at BNY Mellon 20:09 The Industrialization of Social Engineering 23:21 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsSponsor The HIP Podcast is brought to you by Semperis, the leader in identity-driven cyber resilience for the hybrid enterprise. Trusted by the world's leading businesses, Semperis protects critical Active Directory and Entra ID environments from cyberattacks, ensuring rapid recovery and business continuity when every second counts. Visit semperis.com to learn more.Links Connect with Sarah on LinkedInConnect with Sean on LinkedInDon't miss future episodesLearn more about SemperisMidnight in the War Room tells the story of cyber defenders on the front lines. See this pioneering documentary at an upcoming screening near you: https://www.semperis.com/midnight-in-the-war-room/events/

This episode is supported by Xero, helping businesses use AI with more control through JAX, its in-platform AI finance partner. Get 90% off your plan for your first 6 months at xero.com/highflyers. ________Venky Ganesan is a Partner at Menlo Ventures, one of Silicon Valley's oldest venture capital firms, where he has helped lead its push into AI and backed companies including Anthropic, Abnormal AI and Palo Alto Networks. He has spent 20+ years in venture capital, after starting his career as an entrepreneur and co-founding Trigo Technologies, which was acquired by IBM in 2004.In this rare public conversation, Venky joins Vidit to unpack a journey that began in India before he moved alone to rural Washington State at 16. He shares the culture shock of arriving in America, working through college, choosing a $39,000 McKinsey job over a far more lucrative offer, and eventually becoming an entrepreneur — co-founding Trigo Technologies and selling the company to IBM in 2004.They also explore Venky's 20+ years in venture capital, from backing Palo Alto Networks early in its journey to becoming a Partner at Menlo Ventures and helping drive the firm's push into AI. Venky shares what separates good founders from great ones, why “propensity for action” has become one of his strongest signals, how he thinks about position sizing and why VCs often end up with more money in their worst companies than their best. He also unpacks today's extraordinary AI market, investing in Anthropic, and why he believes the industry is moving from innovators to “imitators and idiots.” Venky reflects on the role his wife has played in his life, the stroke that nearly killed him and changed his perspective, what more than two decades of investing have taught him about ambition, and more.Please enjoy exploring your curiosity._______Get in touch with us via email at contact@curiositycentre.comJoin our stable of commercial partners including the Australian Government, Google, KPMG,, Allens, Macquarie Capital, Xero, JP Morgan and more. Show notes and more episodes hereFollow us on LinkedIn, Twitter and InstagramGet in touch with our Founder and Host, Vidit Agarwal directly hereContact us via our websiteThis episode is supported by Xero, helping businesses use AI with more control through JAX, its in-platform AI finance partner. Get 90% off your plan for your first 6 months at xero.com/highflyers. ________TIMESTAMPS01:17 — The 15-year-old who talked his way into a job03:21 — Growing up in India with big ambitions08:08 — An unexpected lesson from Nelson Mandela10:05 — Leaving India alone at 1614:10 — Why technology became his path to freedom22:41 — McKinsey, entrepreneurship and selling to IBM31:13 — From founder to venture capitalist39:57 — The signal Venky looks for in great founders44:02 — How he backed Palo Alto Networks early47:00 — Reinventing Menlo for the AI era53:14 — AI's “innovators, imitators and idiots”59:25 — The most disorienting market of his career1:06:05 — The stroke that nearly killed him1:08:20 — Rapid fire________The High Flyers Podcast features in-depth interviews with the world's most influential figures in business, tech, finance, government and sport. Launched in 2020, it has ranked in the global top ten for past three years, with listeners in 27 countries and over 200+ episodes released, and featured in Forbes, Daily Telegraph, and at SXSW.Our guests include -- Malcolm Turnbull (Prime Minister of Australia), Keith Rabois (Managing Director, Khosla Ventures), Jason Collins (Head of BlackRock, Asia Pacific), Brad Banducci (CEO, Woolworths), Michael Schneider (CEO, Bunnings), David Eckstein (CFO, Legora), David Schneider (Growth Fund Co-Lead Partner, Coatue), Venky Ganesan (Managing Partner, Menlo Ventures), Shiv Rao (CEO, Abridge), Jesse Zhang (CEO, Decagon), Vandita Pant (CFO, BHP), Elena Verna (Head of Growth, Lovable), David Haber (a16z Partner), Jodie Auster (Uber's Global Head of Travel), Paul Grosmann (CEO, RM Williams), Rob Giglio (CCO, Canva), Jean-Michel Limieux (CTO, Shopify and Atlassian), Stevie Case (CRO, Vanta), Cristina Cordova (COO, Linear), Gautam Chari (Head of Capital Commitments, Bank of America), John Haddock (CBO, Harvey), Mark Suster (Partner, Upfront Ventures), Niki Scevak (Partner, Blackbird), Craig Tiley (CEO, USA Tennis), Jeanne DeWitt Grosser (COO, Vercel), Paul Bassat (Partner, Square Peg), Bowen Pan (Creator, Facebook Marketplace), Peter Varghese (Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Australian Government), Sam Sicilia (CIO, Hostplus), Jack Zhang (CEO, Airwallex), Tim Doyle (CEO, Eucalyptus), Sukhinder Singh Cassidy (CEO, Xero), Sanjeev Gandhi (CEO, Orica) and Philip Green (Australia's Ambassador/High Commissioner to India).

Angella Tapé ist SVP Group Strategy Director, Havas, Lecturer AI Strategic Foresight, PRATT & Mentor & Speaker. Dominik Heinrich is Global Head of Design Intelligence and Human AI Experiences @ Coca-Cola, Co-Founder Creative AI Academy, AI Design Lecturer at PRATT and Georgetown, Keynote Speaker and MIT Alum

AI is moving faster than ever, and retail leaders are shifting their focus from basic operational testing to real-world customer journey transformations. In this episode of Future Shop, host Wendy Liebmann is joined by Justin Honaman, Global Head for Retail, Consumer Goods, and Food Service Business Development at Amazon Web Services. Live from a customer summit in Brazil, Justin dives into the rise of agentic commerce, the technical hurdles of legacy systems, and why company culture, change management, and talent buy-in are the true keys to AI adoption. They also explore the evolution of search, dynamic joint business planning, and how physical stores fit into a digital-first world.Send us Fan MailVisit our website for transcripts, links mentioned on this episodes, and video podcasts. Subscribe and rate us with your favorite podcast app!

Between trips to Las Vegas for the BSA/AML Gaming Conference and this week's Global Gaming Expo, Derek Ramm made his return to the Gaming News Canada Show presented by Bede Gaming.Ramm, the Global Head of Advisory Services for Kinectify and a member of the Board of Directors for the Canadian Gaming Association, has been a leading voice for an overhaul of anti-money laundering rules and regulations in the Canadian gambling industry with a special focus on online gaming. He spoke with host Steve McAllister about recent monetary penaltieslevied by the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) against the Nova Scotia Gaming Corporation and New Brunswick Gaming Corporation. Ramm sits on an AML working group in the CGA and spoke about the conversations the association has had with the federal government. We also asked the Kinectify exec why AML programs have yet to be put in place by gaming regulators in both Ontario and Alberta, and why he believes revised AML measures matter so much.Finally, he spoke about what he and his colleagues at Kinectify are seeing with the data being collected around the industry these days. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One ultrasound tech, four scanning rooms. NVIDIA's David Niewolny on what "augmented autonomy" asks of clinicians. NVIDIA is best known for GPUs, but its healthcare strategy is a full stack: compute to train models, compute to run them at the point of care, and simulation to generate the data that medical robotics lacks. In this interview, David Niewolny explains how that stack underpins autonomous X-ray and ultrasound with GE HealthCare, surgical robotics simulation with Johnson & Johnson MedTech, and the Open-H surgical robotics dataset. He argues that open models are a regulatory necessity in healthcare, that software-defined medical devices will shrink innovation cycles from years to months, and that the path to autonomy in surgery will follow the one taken by autonomous vehicles, one level at a time. We also press on the parts that remain unsettled: whether AI efficiency turns into clinician burnout, whether synthetic data reflects real patient populations, and what could still stall adoption. GUEST David Niewolny — Senior Director and Global Head of Business Development, Healthcare & Medical, NVIDIA Host: Tjaša Zajc WHAT THE CONVERSATION COVERS - NVIDIA's healthcare strategy: training, simulation and edge deployment for medical AI - Why open models and open datasets matter in regulated healthcare - Autonomous X-ray and ultrasound with GE HealthCare: one technician, multiple rooms - "Augmented autonomy": keeping a clinician in the loop - AI efficiency, cognitive load and the risk of a new wave of clinician burnout - Ambient clinical documentation as the clearest efficiency case - Surgical robotics and the autonomous-vehicle model of stepwise autonomy - Why robotics costs are falling, and what it means for hospital ROI - Synthetic data for healthcare robotics: Cosmos-H, Isaac for Healthcare and the Open-H dataset - Can simulated data reflect a local patient population? - Model drift, verification and validation, and governance of AI agents in healthcare - Is healthcare worried about superintelligence? - Software-defined medical devices and the FDA's predetermined change control plan (PCCP) - How regulators are adapting to AI-enabled devices - Change management and ROI as the real barriers to adoption CHAPTERS 02:00 NVIDIA in healthcare: more than GPUs 03:03 The full stack: training, simulation and edge deployment 08:46 Why open models matter in regulated healthcare 10:51 Autonomous X-ray and ultrasound: one technician, four rooms 14:49 AI augmentation and clinician burnout 18:16 What NVIDIA looks for in a partner, and the surgical robotics bet 23:38 Cheaper robots, more competition, clearer ROI 27:37 Synthetic data, Cosmos-H and the Open-H surgical dataset 31:43 Does simulated data reflect the real world? 34:37 Model drift and governing AI agents in healthcare 38:03 Superintelligence, change management and the autonomous-vehicle analogy 43:10 Software-defined medical devices, the FDA's PCCP and regulators 49:54 A golden age for medtech? What could still slow it down MENTIONED NVIDIA Isaac for Healthcare • Cosmos-H • Open-H-Embodiment dataset • NVIDIA Nemotron • BioNeMo Agent Toolkit GE HealthCare • Johnson & Johnson MedTech (MONARCH platform) • Abridge • Aidoc • OpenEvidence • Sword Health FDA Predetermined Change Control Plan (PCCP) FACES OF DIGITAL HEALTH Website: https://www.facesofdigitalhealth.com Newsletter: https://fodh.substack.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/faces-of-digital-health Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4cElKJHrauyP6QJQaCkvdY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/faces-of-digital-health/id1194284040 #NVIDIA #healthcareAI #medtech #surgicalrobotics #physicalAI #digitalhealth #medicalimaging #syntheticdata #openmodels #FDA #medicaldevices #healthcarerobotics

In this episode of the All Things Sustainable podcast, we cover Climate Week NYC key takeaways with a guest who brings together perspectives from climate science and the financial sector: Dr. Sarah Kapnick.   Sarah is Global Head of Climate Advisory at the largest bank in the US, JPMorganChase. Before joining the bank, she was Chief Scientist for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.   In the episode, we unpack how the business and finance communities are responding to volatility from climate change, geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruption. Sarah explains why a powerful El Niño forecast has put food security in the spotlight at Climate Week NYC.   Across these topics, Sarah says she's increasingly putting resilience front and center in conversations with clients. "You can't just build resilience for what you've seen in the past," she says. "You need to be building resilience to what we know will come in the future."  Sarah says events like summer's heat waves have led to increased awareness of the physical impacts of climate change. "It's moving from being theoretical to actually physical and financial," she tells us. "And that is what I think is going to really drive action and capital deployment in the coming years."  We recorded this episode on the sidelines of The Nest Campus, where the All Things Sustainable podcast is an official media partner. Listen to all of our Climate Week NYC coverage:   Tech giant NVIDIA talks AI's sustainability risks and opportunities  New York bank CEO talks affordability, AI and climate solutions at Climate Week NYC  PRI interim CEO talks changing landscape for responsible investment  As Climate Week NYC kicks off, energy, climate and national security converge  Read thought leadership on El Niño from the S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence: El Niño: The climate science view of key regional impacts and risks | S&P Global   Read S&P Global's latest thought leadership on corporate adaptation planning: As climate risk mounts, more companies turn to adaptation planning to build resilience | S&P Global Read thought leadership on resilience from S&P Global Sustainable1: Resilience as a framework for sustainability | S&P Global  Copyright ©2026 by S&P Global  DISCLAIMER  By accessing this Podcast, I acknowledge that S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation as to the accuracy or sufficiency of the information featured in this Podcast. The information, opinions, and recommendations presented in this Podcast are for general information only and any reliance on the information provided in this Podcast is done at your own risk.  Any unauthorized use, facilitation or encouragement of a third party's unauthorized use (including without limitation copy, distribution, transmission or modification, use as part of generative artificial intelligence or for training any artificial intelligence models) of this Podcast or any related information is not permitted without S&P Global's prior consent subject to appropriate licensing and shall be deemed an infringement, violation, breach or contravention of the rights of S&P Global or any applicable third-party (including any copyright, trademark, patent, rights of privacy or publicity or any other proprietary rights).  This Podcast should not be considered professional advice. Unless specifically stated otherwise, S&P GLOBAL does not endorse, approve, recommend, or certify any information, product, process, service, or organization presented or mentioned in this Podcast, and information from this Podcast should not be referenced in any way to imply such approval or endorsement. The third party materials or content of any third party site referenced in this Podcast do not necessarily reflect the opinions, standards or policies of S&P GLOBAL. S&P GLOBAL assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the content contained in third party materials or on third party sites referenced in this Podcast or the compliance with applicable laws of such materials and/or links referenced herein. Moreover, S&P GLOBAL makes no warranty that this Podcast, or the server that makes it available, is free of viruses, worms, or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties.  S&P GLOBAL EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF ANY INDIVIDUAL'S USE OF, REFERENCE TO, RELIANCE ON, OR INABILITY TO USE, THIS PODCAST OR THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS PODCAST.

I visited the iconic Peloton Studios in NYC to ‘tech out' three new Tread (treadmill) options. I sit down with Nick Caldwell, Chief Product Officer.You know Visa as a credit card company but its “Visa A2A Protect” platform helps banks spot and block fraud before money is transferred directly between accounts. Awesome to have back on the show, James Mirfin, SVP and Global Head of Risk and Security SolutionsSpeaking of money, Tech It Out also welcomes back Ankita D'Mello, Product Lead at Wise, who shares what's new with the popular global money app for sending and receiving fundsThank you to Visa, Norton, and SanDisk for your incredible support. Get a huge discount on Norton anti-malware at norton.com/techitout

Diesel is at the center of an international supply squeeze, with prices rising to historic highs. Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats unpack why this industrial fuel matters far beyond the pump.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley. Andrew Sheets: Today, the secret life of diesel and why there's so much attention on it. It's Thursday, September 24th at 2pm in London. Diesel is a fuel that I think a lot of investors may be aware of but not familiar with, so to speak. It's often the other price that you see when you're driving down the road. But Martijn, it's incredibly important for the industrial side of the economy and unusually disrupted by current geopolitical events. And so, I'd like to really start at the top, or technically the middle of the barrel, so to speak. What is diesel and what makes it so special? Martijn Rats: Yeah. When people talk about diesel at the moment, they really talk about sort of three things combined. They talk about outright diesel, as well as jet fuel and also heating oil. These are effectively part of the same pool of molecules coming out of the refinery. And so, when you look at that sort of pool of molecules, you talk about the things that fuel trucks, trains, ships, tractors in agriculture, excavators, generators, home heating. It is a molecule that has a tremendously broad range of applications. It's really the fuel of the industrial economy. One of the characteristics of diesel is that it has very high energy density. In contrast to, say, gasoline, electrifying the uses of diesel is harder because it carries so much punch. Andrew Sheets: And why has there been so much on diesel recently, given the current energy disruption in these geopolitical events? Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the global refining system normally processes about 85 million barrels a day of crude oil and from that, it makes a range of products. Diesel is at the heart of it. But it's only one of many. At the moment, we are short in terms of refinery runs, i.e., the amount of crude that refineries process to the extent of about somewhere between 4 to 5 million barrels a day. So, 4 to 5 million barrels a day on a base of 85, you're talking about 5 to 6 percent. That may not sound like a lot, but in the world of commodities, where prices really depend on relatively small changes, that is actually a very large amount. That sort of 4 or 5 million barrels a day of refineries that are currently not running, they are fifty-fifty, either in the Middle East or in Russia. In the Middle East, it is a story of the Strait of Hormuz and refineries locked behind the strait, and they can't export their products. Some of them are also damaged, although information on that is hard to find. And then the other half that is out is in Russia, where they are effectively taken out by Ukrainian drone attacks. In total, that's sort of 4 to 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity that is not running. 40 percent of their output would typically be diesel, so we are missing something like 1.5 million barrels a day of global diesel supply, all into the seaborne market. Now, I mentioned the seaborne market because the seaborne market is the traded market where traders buy and sell cargoes to each other. And that is where, from a physical market perspective, price formation takes place. The global seaborne diesel market is an 8 million barrel a day market. And so given that all of the supply we're missing is also into the seaborne market, the comparison to make is to say that we're missing about, sort of, close to 1.5 million barrels out of an 8 million barrel a day traded… Andrew Sheets: A pretty large percentage, yeah. Martijn Rats: Absolutely. That is very, very large, and that is hard to offset. Every other refinery around the world that can run is running flat out. The margins are all-time highs. So, there's a lot of incentive to run very hard.But nevertheless, it's left the market very, very tight. Andrew Sheets: So, that tightness in the market shows up via price. And just talk us through a little bit about what has happened to the price of diesel and its related fuels. You know, I think a lot of listeners are probably more familiar with the price of gasoline. They're more familiar with the barrel of oil that's often the quoted benchmark in the market. But what has been happening to these diesel prices? Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the way to really tell that story is to look at what we call the crack spread. So, making a barrel of refined product, including diesel, of course, you start with crude oil. So, the price of crude oil impacts the price of the refined product. So, quite often we focus more on the uplift from the price of crude to get to the price of the refined product, and we call that the crack spread. Under normal conditions, say a year ago, crude was $70, and then the price of diesel was another $20 on top of that. And so, you got to diesel being 70 plus 20 is $90 per barrel. At the moment, crude is higher. Crude is about $100 per barrel. Crude has rallied. But the increment on top of it has spiked. So, a couple of days ago we got to all-time high nominal term diesel prices over $200 per barrel. So, we're now having a situation that is [$]100 for crude plus another [$]100 to get to the diesel price. So, the crack spread is something that normally lives in a range of, like when the diesel market is weak, maybe sort of $8, $9, $10. When the market is normal, close to $20. If it's very strong, $25 to $30. Now, that incremental crack spread is $100 per barrel, and that is something that we've not seen before. It is stronger than it was in 2022, when we also had a moment of a severe diesel crisis. Didn't last very long in 2022, but the crack spread got to sort of $60, $70 per barrel. So, that highlights the extent to which the price of diesel has rallied. Andrew Sheets: So, Martijn, you mentioned this crack spread. You know, I think if we all go back to our organic chemistry, this is the refineries literally cracking a barrel of oil down into constituent distillates and other pieces. But given those very high prices for diesel, why don't the refiners just refine more? Why aren't the incentives increasing production? What's getting in the way of that? Martijn Rats: Yeah. That's just a matter of like the physical reality of the system. So, when you build a refinery, you often quite think about two things. What crudes are available to me. So, if you're in the United States, you have U.S. shale crudes, or you have crude from Mexico, Canada. And based on those, you then also think about, you know, what is my consumption, where I am likely to be.And based on that, you build a certain configuration – that converts the crudes that you can buy into the products that your specific customer set might need. You fix the configuration of the refinery at the time you build it. And once it's built, there is a little bit of flexibility to say, "Oh, well, maybe at the moment I make a little bit more diesel and a little bit less gasoline," and change the – what we call the yield of these products. Like a little bit within, you know, a few percentage points range. But that flexibility is small, so the only thing you can do to make more diesel is to run the refinery at 100 percent utilization. That is currently where we are. That has already happened. And then you put in the crude that you buy, you get the products for which your refinery is then designed, and that's it.There are no other… Andrew Sheets: You can't just turn a big dial that says more diesel. Martijn Rats: No. You can't say, "Oh, well, I don't like my naphtha output this week, so let's not make any naphtha for the chemical industry. Let's only make diesel." It's not contained in the barrel of crude and the kits that you have – takes many years to rebuild and probably very expensive.So you're kind of then stuck. I mean, it is what it is. Andrew Sheets: So Martijn, where is this leaving the global story? You know, if we think about just the relative price of this. Again, you mentioned it's an incredibly important fuel for agriculture, for industry… What's it looking like kind of across the major regions? Martijn Rats: Yeah. Look, it leaves a very tight market at the moment. I mean, it's relatively straightforward. The price of diesel depends very heavily on how the geopolitics of the Middle East and Russia sort of play out. So, in terms of the traded price that you see on the screen every day, it swings around very heavily with how the market foresees the future with regards to these two conflicts. So, one week things flare up, the price of diesel rallies. The following week the market feels a bit more optimistic maybe around a deal, so then things sort of sell off. So, we have to live with that sort of geopolitical sort of reality. But other than that, those who can afford it pay a high price to effectively erode demand amongst sets of consumers who cannot afford these higher prices. You see a substitution, for example, what I thought was very interesting last week. Some of the train companies in the United States were talking about a truck-to-train substitution of very high levels of cargo loads on trains because simply the diesel on trucks is too expensive.So, you see those behavioral changes come through. Andrew Sheets: But that point about demand destruction is really important because, you know, a point that you've made over many years is this idea that the solution to higher prices is higher prices. That that reduces the demand for the fuel, that helps these markets recorrect. And yet, you know, we're hitting prices in diesel that are near all-time highs, and we've yet to see that demand really pull back a lot. A lot of economic indicators are still pretty good. What does that tell you maybe about where the demand destruction price really is? Martijn Rats: Making estimates of the demand destruction price sort of bottom up in a sort of modeling sense, going sort of end use by end use, has turned out on many occasions to be very, very challenging analysis. But we can sort of look at the market and say under certain conditions, prices have spiked and what were these conditions? And we can sort of try to learn something from that. We had a very severe diesel crisis in 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict started, and effectively Russian diesel had to be significantly rerouted around the world. We got to $200 per barrel. Andrew Sheets: Right about where we are now… Martijn Rats: Right about where we are. That didn't last very long. Big spike to [$]200, and it sold off. In March-April, we got to [$]200, and it sold off. And now, a couple of days ago, we reached that again. And so, in the trading behavior of the market, it does look like what happens at [$]200 – there either is demand destruction. Or there may not be demand destruction in the fullness of time, but buyers just take a pause. And this makes it quite difficult to kind of really unearth this issue in the sense that in the end, a lot of customers also have inventories of their own. Like airlines have tanks with jet fuel. In Europe, you have a lot of households that use heating oil for home heating if they're not connected to the gas grid. And they have tanks in their gardens. And so, there are a lot of tertiary inventories, as we call them, where people can effectively afford to stop buying for a little bit and see how things pan out, and then they buy later. And so, the actual data points that we have on demand destruction, even at this price, they're actually not that convincing.There seems to be some... There clearly is in China. In China, we have seen signs of demand destruction at these very high prices. But in the rest of the world, either there are subsidies in place, or people draw on their own inventories for a bit. Or they just absorb it because it's an indisplaceable fuel in the short run. Actually, it's not all that convincing that there is a lot of demand destruction even at these prices. Andrew Sheets: So, Martijn, the last thing I want to ask you about is – this is a fuel that is central to a lot of key industrial processes, as we've discussed, agriculture, trucking. What is the risk that the countries that have more of this refining capacity stop exporting it to the rest of the world. Try to keep more of it to themselves in order to cushion the domestic price impact? Martijn Rats: That risk is very real. We've already seen some of this earlier on in the Hormuz crisis in March and April. For example, China at some point announced an export ban on all refined products. In retrospect, that wasn't quite as forcefully implemented as it was announced. But nevertheless, the Chinese government did announce that, and we saw a initially large decline. The government of South Korea at some point banned refined product exports. In the United States, there are voices that say that this might be something that the government should consider. I would say, though, about the U.S. diesel export ban, there is a good reason why this has not happened yet.Because the United States is broadly balanced in gasoline, domestic production of gasoline by the refiners. It broadly equals to domestic consumption. And there is a tiny little bit of exports. But in the overall scheme of things, it's not much. In diesel, it has a very large surplus, which is exported. But if there were to be an export ban and that diesel cannot leave the country – for a little bit, you can store it. But you'd fill up those tanks very, very quickly. When those tanks are full, you then need to slow down the refineries because otherwise you simply have diesel that you cannot get rid of. If you slow down the refineries, and this is how we come back to the start of the discussion, the mix of products that you produce is broadly fixed. So, if you slow down the refineries, you make less gasoline. And so, in the United States, you can get the counterintuitive outcome that a diesel export ban could lead to higher gasoline prices. So, a lot of these things have unintended consequences, and there are good reasons why they haven't happened yet. Andrew Sheets: I think that's a fascinating and counterintuitive way to think about it. Thank you, Martijn, as always, for taking the time. Martijn Rats: My pleasure. Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you hear us. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

#393 | Dave interviews Katie Miserany, Chief Communications Officer and Head of Marketing at SurveyMonkey, about why the company rebranded to Momentive to go upmarket and then reversed the decision after going private. Katie explains why sales believed nobody would spend six figures with a company called SurveyMonkey, what changed under the new CEO, and why she now sees the monkey as an advantage. She also covers her path into marketing from communications, why more comms leaders are moving into C-suite marketing roles, and the advice she followed when she took over the function: get close to the growth team and ask your basic questions early so imposter syndrome doesn't cost you the learning.Timestamps:(00:00) - Why Katie Feels Like She's Gotten Twenty Years of Experience in Seven at SurveyMonkey (05:41) - Why Sales Thought Nobody Would Buy From a Company Called SurveyMonkey (07:06) - Creating Our Brand Vision and Bringing it to Life (12:33) - The Campaign That Didn't Move the Needle (17:04) - Everyone Knows Us - The Version of Us From 2009 (20:08) - The Tactic That Lifted Click-Through by 73% (25:19) - The Journey From Comms to Head of Marketing (31:18) - What Comms Actually Does (37:14) - How to Determine if You Need a Meeting vs an Async Update Join 50,0000 people who get Dave's Newsletter here: https://www.exitfive.com/newsletterLearn more about Exit Five's private marketing community: https://www.exitfive.com/***Brought to you by:Optimizely - the AI platform for marketers. Build your own AI agents or pull from a directory of 50+ pre-built ones for marketing use cases. Their new Virtual Teammates can join meetings, complete tasks, support campaigns, and keep your website optimized. Learn more at optimizely.com/exitfive.Webflow - A website platform built for the agentic web, letting modern marketing teams build fully custom sites that perform in AI search with no developer needed. Learn more at webflow.com/for/exitfive.Zoom Webinars & Events – The virtual event platform built to help B2B marketers run webinars that actually drive pipeline, with branded registration pages, live engagement features, and built-in tools to repurpose sessions into clips and content. Learn more at zoom.com/exitfive.Compound Growth Marketing - A full-funnel demand gen agency helping high-growth cybersecurity and enterprise software companies show up earlier in the buying journey, combining AEO, modern paid advertising, and a dedicated go-to-market engineering team. Podcast listeners get two free media planning sessions to find out what channels are driving the best ROI. Learn more at compoundgrowthmarketing.com/exitfive. ***Thanks to my friends at hatch.fm for producing this episode and handling all of the Exit Five podcast production.They give you unlimited podcast editing and strategy for your B2B podcast.Get unlimited podcast editing and on-demand strategy for one low monthly cost. Just upload your episode, and they take care of the rest.Visit hatch.fm to learn more

Late-cycle credit pressures are building, as are questions about what's next for US leveraged finance and CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations. CLOs raise money from institutional investors to purchase leveraged loans, thus funding corporate borrowers while offering investors a range of risk and return options. But CLO managers are assuming a defensive position as risks grow, while also preparing for opportunities. In this episode, we're looking into what's driving these decisions and how the data can help decipher the credit impacts. Host: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director, North America Corporate Finance, Moody's Ratings Guests: Lyuba Petrova, Managing Director, Global Head of Leveraged Finance, Moody's Ratings Al Remeza, Executive Director, Head of the US Corporate Structured Finance Surveillance rating team, Moody's Ratings Related Research: Leveraged Finance – US - Late-cycle signals point to rising leveraged finance risk 21 September 2026 Corporate Defaults and Recoveries — US, EMEA – Recovery challenges intensify as credit cycle matures 22 September 2026 CLOs – US – Asset quality improves at expense of par amid low spreads, economic uncertainty 23 September 2026 © 2026 Moody's Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody's information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode is the final part of our EEI 2026 Highlights series. The discussions highlight the innovative strategies, investments, and partnerships shaping the future of the energy grid. The speakers are: Mary Sprayregen, Global Head of Market Development, Regulatory Affairs & Industry Value, Oracle Duke Austin, president and CEO, Quanta You can also visit the Electric Perspectives website to read coverage of this year's conference.

In this Risk Capital Insight episode, Aon's Mona Barnes and SCOR's Neil Owen discuss why claims strategy has become a business and capital decision, not simply an insurance outcome. Drawing on perspectives from both Aon and SCOR, they explore how leading organizations are using claims data, carrier insight and analytics to make better placement decisions, strengthen Risk Capital strategies and improve outcomes before a claim is filed. The conversation also examines how organizations can navigate such evolving exposures as U.S. litigation, AI, data center expansion and secondary climate perils and stay ahead in a changing risk environment at the same time.Key Takeaways:             Claims capability is key. Evaluating an insurer's claims expertise can provide valuable insight into the quality of protection an organization is buying.Carriers must be aligned. As insurance programs become more layered and specialized, greater coordination, advocacy and alignment across carriers become increasingly important.Data drives better Risk Capital decisions. Organizations can use claims analytics and risk insights to inform carrier selection, understand total cost of risk and make better decisions about future growth.Experts in this episode:           Mona Barnes, Global Chief Claims Officer, Aon Neil Owen, Global Head of Claims, SCOR Key Moments:             (3:05) Why claims capability is becoming a more important consideration in carrier selection and how analytics can support stronger placement decisions.(7:10) How insurance program design can influence claims outcomes and why coordination matters when losses occur.(15:45) What emerging exposures, from litigation and AI to data centers and climate risk, mean for future claims strategies.Soundbites:             Mona Barnes: “For those insurers who are seeing true value in their claims function, they've got a seat at their executive table and they're looking to show a value differentiation through claims. Clients are recognizing the importance of that and they're actively moving business towards those insurers.”Neil Owen:   “Claims is the product, it's the promise that you're making when you're writing the risk.”

AI is moving faster than the headlines can explain, so how do you sort fiction from fact? Tech analyst Dan Ives has spent more than 25 years on Wall Street doing exactly that. In this episode, he shares what the future could look like if the U.S. keeps its edge over China, what his biggest worry about AI is right now, and why AI's major PR problem is making people underestimate the opportunity ahead. Topics discussed: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) How he built a tech career with no tech background (04:28) His biggest worry and the fight over data centers (07:09) Why AI has a perception problem (08:57) The case for AI creating more jobs (11:28) Why he sees a young bull market (14:04) What we can learn from the SpaceX IPO (17:25) What it will take to keep the tech lead over China (20:42) Tech regulation, gridlock and the politics around AI (23:44) Dan's colorful style and Snow Milk collab (27:53) What brought you JOY today? If you're a writer who wants to take control of your finances, read Mitlin Financial's  Write Your Financial Future: A Financial Guide for Authors: https://www.mitlinfinancial.com/insights/blog/write-your-financial-future-a-financial-guide-for-authors/ Resources: Sending your child to college will always be emotional but are you financially ready? Take the College Readiness Quiz for Parents: https://www.mitlinfinancial.com/college-readiness-quiz/ Doing your taxes might not be enJOYable but being more organized can make the process less painful. Get Your Gathering Your Tax Documents Checklist: https://www.mitlinfinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Mitlin_ChecklistForGatheringYourTaxDocuments_Form_062424_v2.pdf Will you be able to enJOY the Retirement you envision? Take the Retirement Ready Quiz: https://www.mitlinfinancial.com/retirement-planning-quiz/ Connect with Larry Sprung: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lawrencesprung/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/larry_sprung/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LawrenceDSprung/ X (Twitter): https://x.com/Lawrence_Sprung About Our Guest: Daniel Ives is a Partner and Senior Managing Director at Yorkville Ives. Dan was a Managing Director, Global Head of Tech Research, and Senior Equity Research Analyst that covered the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities from August 2018 until July 2026. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over 25 years covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is the AI Revolution and disruptive technology over the next decade. Dan is a regularly sought after tech expert around the world, has been a keynote speaker across the US, Europe, Australia, Africa, and Asia and regularly makes television appearances on networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Fox News, BBC, and many networks around the world to provide commentary related to his technology expertise. Dan has also appeared on The Today Show, Good Morning America, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, and The Daily Show. Dan can be heard regularly doing radio on the tech sector for Bloomberg, ABC News, NPR, BBC, and other radio programs. Dan is often cited globally by publications such as The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Financial Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine, Barron's, and New York Times, among many others. Named by the New York Post in 2024 as the "Best Dressed Man on Wall Street." He holds a BS in Finance from Penn State University and an MBA from the University of Maryland. Connect with Dan Ives: X (Twitter): https://x.com/DivesTech LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8/ Website: https://danivesclothing.com/ Disclosure: Guests on the Mitlin Money Mindset are not affiliated with CWM, LLC, and opinions expressed herein may not be representative of CWM, LLC. CWM, LLC is not responsible for the guest's content linked on this site.   This episode was produced by Podcast Boutique https://www.podcastboutique.com

This week's episode features Grant Sporre, Global Head of Metals and Mining at Bloomberg Intelligence, in conversation with host Adrian Pocobelli on the copper market. Sporre examines the forces driving copper prices, including the accumulation of metal in the United States at the expense of inventories on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange. He explains how these shifting inventories are affecting the market and why copper prices remain near record highs despite relatively abundant global supplies. He also discusses the potential impact of a U.S. tariff decision on copper prices and trade flows. All this and more with host Adrian Pocobelli. This week's Spotlight features Amex Exploration president and CEO Victor Cantore, who discusses the company's Perron gold project near the Ontario-Quebec border. To learn more, visit: https://amexexploration.com/ “Rattlesnake Railroad”, “Big Western Sky”, “Western Adventure” and “Battle on the Western Frontier” by Brett Van Donsel (⁠www.incompetech.com⁠). Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License ⁠creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0⁠ Apple Podcasts:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-northern-miner-podcast/id1099281201⁠ Spotify:⁠ https://open.spotify.com/show/78lyjMTRlRwZxQwz2fwQ4K⁠ YouTube:⁠ https://www.youtube.com/@NorthernMiner⁠ Soundcloud:⁠ https://soundcloud.com/northern-miner

What does a truly connected treasury look like and how can organisations build one? In this episode, HSBC's Amber Henderson-Smart, Global Head of Client Connectivity, Global Payments Solutions, HSBC and Peter Crawley, Global Head of Corporate Sales, Global Payments Solutions, HSBC explore how evolving client expectations are reshaping connectivity, from choosing the right banking channels to embedding services directly into ERP and TMS workflows.

Most companies keep their high-potential lists and succession plans well away from recruiters. Merck opened both.Colleen Rush is Global Head of Talent Acquisition at Merck KGaA, Darmstadt — around 11,000 hires a year across 60 countries. She joins Johnny to explain what changed when her team got access to that data, what recruiters now do with it, and the capacity, capability and internal agreement it took to get there.

The Fed has turned hawkish, and the market is now pricing several more hikes. Our fixed income team isn't convinced. Core U.S. inflation is still drifting lower, most of this year's yield move has come from real rates rather than inflation expectations, and the disinflation case remains intact — all of which argues for a shorter path than consensus expects. On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar sits down with Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger's Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income, to unpack the latest on global monetary policy, and where value sits now across the bond market. Together, they discuss: Why the bond move has been about real yields, not inflation — and where the danger zone begins Why returns have held up better than the yield move suggests Why the team expects a shorter hiking cycle than the market is pricing Why global central banks have more in common than divergence Where the team is finding value: hyperscaler credit, BB high yield, floating rate, European financials, hard currency EM This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. This communication is not directed at any investor or category of investors and should not be regarded as investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Neuberger is not providing this material in a fiduciary capacity and has a financial interest in the sale of its products and services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Use of Artificial Intelligence Tools. Neuberger may utilize AI tools in its business operations to improve operational efficiency and for assistance in research and analyzing data among other uses. AI tools are dependent on historical data, consequently, if the content or analyses that AI applications assist Neuberger in producing are or are alleged to be deficient, inaccurate, or biased, a client account may be adversely affected. Additionally, AI tools used by Neuberger may produce inaccurate, misleading or incomplete responses that could lead to errors in Neuberger's and its employees' judgement, decision-making, investment research or other business activities, which could have a negative impact on the performance of a client account. The application of AI in investment processes, research, or analysis is evolving and subject to limitations, including data quality, algorithmic biases, and interpretive errors. AI outputs should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. No assurance is given regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information generated by AI. This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit www.nb.com/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions. The "Neuberger" name and logo are service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC.  © 2026 Neuberger Berman Group LLC. All rights reserved. [M-005406]

Sarah Kapnick, Global Head of Climate Advisory at JP Morgan, talks about the impact of El Nino in Europe this winter and investments in clean energy and the European grid. She speaks to Bloomberg's Caroline Hepker and Charles Capel.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hi, welcome back everyone to Everymum the podcast, I'm Aisling Keenan. Today's guest is Dr Garth Graham, a doctor and public health expert who is the Global Head of Health at YouTube, where he leads the platform's work around health information, wellbeing and making sure people can find credible, useful information online. He's also a dad of four, which is particularly relevant to today's conversation because we're talking about one of the biggest challenges facing parents right now: how do we raise healthy, happy children in a world where screens and the internet are simply part of everyday life? We talked about the rise of health influencers and the problem of misinformation online, including what happens when a health myth or conspiracy suddenly takes off, and how YouTube responds. We got into the responsibility that comes with running a platform used by billions of people, particularly when it comes to children and teenagers, and where that responsibility ends and the responsibility of parents begins. But we also brought it right back to family life. Garth talked about the rules he has around technology in his own home, whether his children challenge them, and whether being a dad has actually changed the way he thinks about children, technology and wellbeing professionally. We talked about parental hypocrisy… because how can we tell our children to get off their screens when we're permanently attached to ours?, and the enormous amount of guilt parents can feel around screen time, particularly when a screen is sometimes the only thing standing between you and getting dinner made or having five minutes of peace. And we got into what healthy screen use actually looks like, whether all screen time is equal, and perhaps most importantly, whether instead of simply trying to ban things, we should be teaching our children how to navigate the digital world for themselves. It's a really practical conversation about screens, safety, parenting, technology and finding a version of “good enough” that actually works in real family life. Here's my chat with Dr Graham, I'll be back next week with more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of the Rainmaker Podcast, Gui Costin sits down with Angela Kay, President of BasePoint Advisors and Global Head of Capital Markets, to trace her path from an accidental start in finance to leading distribution at a $7 billion private credit platform. A political science and public policy major at the University of Pennsylvania who spent a college year working in the Clinton White House, Angela graduated in 2002 into a post-9/11 hiring freeze and landed, almost by chance, as a research assistant at a global macro hedge fund in New York. From there she earned a master's in public policy from UCLA while working as a sovereign debt analyst at TCW, then helped launch Ice Canyon, a joint venture with Canyon Partners, where she raised the firm's AUM from zero to $4.25 billion before eventually joining BasePoint in 2020 to help institutionalize the business and build its SEC-registered advisory arm.The conversation's core theme is Angela's belief that effective fundraising starts with investment fluency: she describes herself as an investor first and a fundraiser second, and argues that the best fundraisers bridge portfolio knowledge with genuine curiosity about what an LP is actually trying to solve, not just what they're asking on the surface. Gui builds on this, framing fundraising not as a "salesperson" function but as a professional, consultative discipline built on long-term relationships that can span decades and evolve into genuine friendships.The discussion moves through several practical themes: the value of cold outreach (Gui's line, "you're one email away from a 20-year relationship," anchors this segment), the importance of prioritization over busyness, and structured but human communication both within a distribution team and up to a firm's executive committee. Angela describes BasePoint's team structure, organized by investor type and geography, built around a "team sport" mentality rather than siloed coverage, and her rule that every meeting should end with clarity on where things stand, not vague reassurances like "great meeting."A significant portion of the episode focuses on the CRM as institutional memory: Angela stresses entering notes in real time rather than deferring them, drawing on her own experience migrating a firm onto Salesforce years ago. Both she and Gui highlight how AI has changed this workflow, removing the friction and dread salespeople associate with writing call notes and making it dramatically faster to capture and later mine years of accumulated information.The episode closes with two reflective questions. Asked to describe her leadership style, Angela offers "autonomy with high expectations,” hiring for curiosity, organization, and drive, then giving her team room to operate against clearly stated annual goals. Asked for advice to young salespeople, she emphasizes humility: enter meetings to learn rather than to prove expertise, admit what you don't know, and protect your reputation, since it compounds over a career just like capital does.Disclaimer: Angela Kay is President of BasePoint Advisors LLC ("BPA"), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and also serves as Global Head of Capital Markets at BasePoint Capital LLC, an affiliate of BPA that is a commercial service provider to separately organized lending subsidiaries. See Items 10 and 11 of BPA's Form ADV Part 2A. This content reflects Ms. Kay's personal views and is provided for general informational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to invest in any fund.

Few markets drew more pessimism during the rate-hiking cycle than commercial real estate. While prices have stabilized and deal flow gradually improved, with rates now moving higher again, what lies ahead for the recovery?In this episode of Can We Talk in Private?, co-hosts Alan Flannigan and Andrew Korz are joined by Rob Lawrence, Future Standard's Global Head of Real Estate Credit, whose real estate career spans more than three decades and multiple credit cycles. Rob discusses current market conditions and how they may be aligning to produce an ideal vintage for real estate lending.Have a question for our experts? Text us for a chance to have your questions answered on the next episode.For more research insights go to https://futurestandard.com/insights 

An accelerating AI buildout and elevated government borrowing needs are intensifying competition for capital. Vivek Paul, Global Head of Portfolio Strategy at the BlackRock Investment Institute, explains why that could keep borrowing costs elevated.General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. BlackRock does and may seek to do business with companies covered in this podcast. As a result, readers should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this podcast.In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel:+ 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock.In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20- 549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.For Investors in Switzerland: This document is marketing material.In South Africa: Please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorised Financial Services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288.In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. Refer to BIMAL's Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdictionIn Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx©2026 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.BII0926-M-5940825-EXP0927

Host Naki Mendoza talks with Lindsey Hall, Global Head of Thought Leadership at S&P Global Horizons, about why "resilience" has become the organizing idea of sustainability in 2026 and the anchor theme of the new edition of S&P Global's Sustainability Quarterly. Together, they unpack how the language has evolved from ESG to sustainability to resilience, and what S&P Global's research shows about energy scenarios, climate adaptation planning, power generation, and exposure to climate hazards. More From the S&P Global Sustainability Quarterly Third-Quarter 2026 Edition | S&P Global All Things Sustainable: What to expect from Climate Week NYC: Why resilience is high on the agenda | S&P Global S&P Global @ Climate Week NYC: The Resilience Imperative at the Climate Infrastructure Forum | S&P Global The Look Forward Podcast is powered by the S&P Global Institute. The S&P Global Institute is the center for enterprise-wide thought leadership that brings together expertise from across S&P Global to provide insights on the trends reshaping markets, industries, and the global economy.

What happens when we stop guessing and actually start paying attention to what our body is telling us? This was one of those conversations where I could've kept talking for another three hours. Dr. Kristen Holmes is the Global Head of Human Performance and Principal Scientist at Whoop, and she works with some of the best athletes and teams in the world, including Ferrari F1 and Paris Saint-Germain. We got into data, HRV, recovery, overtraining, women's health, perimenopause, sleep, fuelling, the menstrual cycle and why being absolutely farkin' exhausted shouldn't be considered normal. We also went deep on the psychology of performance, self-efficacy, trauma and the weird ways the things that once helped us survive can become the things that hold us back. And then I shared with Kristen the slightly uncomfortable realisation for me that a lot of what I thought was toughness in my boxing years may actually have been me being chronically under-recovered and under-fuelled. Kristen is ridiculously knowledgeable, but she's also incredibly open about her own story, including childhood trauma, elite sport, burnout and learning how to move from achievement and fear towards actually living with more joy and agency. Basically, there's a LOT in this one. Data nerds, athletes, women over 40, high performers and anyone who's ever worn exhaustion like a badge of honour, you're going to LOVE this one. SPONSORED BY TESTART FAMILY LAWYERS Website: www.testartfamilylawyers.com.au DR. KRISTEN HOLMES Website: drkristenholmes.com/ TIFFANEE COOK Linktree: linktr.ee/rollwiththepunches Website: tiffcook.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jared Browne, Global Head of Privacy and AI Governance at Fexco, offers his insights on whether we need to be worried by AI titans recent calls to slow down the pace of development of AI technology. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Private Markets 360°, we welcome Melanie Levine, Partner and Global Head of Client Partnerships and Business Development at Davidson Kempner. Melanie shares her insights on how Davidson Kempner differentiates itself in the competitive landscape, the impact of current market trends on investor allocations, and what lies ahead for private markets. Melanie also discusses her journey to Davidson Kempner, from being the second hire on the fundraising team to co-managing the client partnerships and business development team today.   More S&P Global Content:  Your AI agents need to be principled and policy aligned. Learn more > Credits: Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg and Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Melanie Levine Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun, Kimberly Olvany

After raising interest rates for the first time in more than three years, the Fed still doesn't see policy as restrictive. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets breaks down what that could mean for the monetary policy path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Federal Reserve may have raised interest rates and yet still thinks that monetary policy is providing support.It's Thursday, September 17th at 2pm in London. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percent. That part was widely expected. What was more notable was how Chair Warsh described it. At the press conference following the action, he said that the Fed had removed "a dose of accommodation," and he said that both he and many of his colleagues were hard-pressed to describe broader financial conditions as restrictive. That's an important distinction that now moves to the heart of the market debate. If monetary policy is already restrictive, another rate hike means that the Fed is pressing harder on the proverbial brakes on the economy. But if policy is still accommodative, a hike is more like easing off the gas. It means the Fed is simply providing a little less support. And if that is how the committee sees the world, it suggests that there could be further to go. Following yesterday's meeting, Morgan Stanley's economists now expect two additional quarter point rate hikes in December and March, taking the Fed's target rate range from 4.25 to 4.5 percent; and we then expect those rates to remain there through the rest of 2027.Three things are driving this updated view. First is exactly that language around accommodation. The interest rates that keep the economy in balance are always a mystery when viewed in real time. But given booming earnings growth, loan growth, and corporate activity, it's not obvious that the current level of interest rates are holding back activity for the economy as a whole. The Fed may believe that as well, making higher rates a little more palpable.Second is inflation. Chair Warsh repeatedly emphasized that trends matter here more than individual data points, and on that basis, inflation still looks too high. Too many categories are still running above 3 percent. The Fed simply does not sound convinced that inflation is moving sustainably back towards its 2 percent target as fast as it would like.Third is geopolitics. Chair Warsh explicitly cited geopolitical developments as one of the things that had changed since their meeting in July. He also made it clear that the Fed is watching not just high oil prices, but so-called second-round effects. And whether higher prices for fuel translate into higher prices for things that require a lot of fuel.Airline tickets, for example, are one of the areas of the economy where prices are going up the fastest. Higher oil prices are a key reason why. And so with energy markets still severely disrupted, this remains a wild card.There is, maybe, one other wrinkle. The committee also raised its estimate of the so-called long-run neutral interest rate – the rate that it thinks we'll ultimately end up at over the long term that will keep the economy in balance. And it raised this to about 3.25 percent.This is an uncertain estimate, and Chair Warsh himself downplayed its importance. But directionally, a view that the interest rate that keeps things in balance is higher means that any given interest rate that we see today is less restrictive on economic growth.It's less elevated relative to that neutral rate than we previously thought. That, too, leans towards the case for more tightening and more rate increases rather than less.None of this is set in stone. If energy prices fall, geopolitical tensions ease, or inflation improves more quickly, the Fed could stop earlier. But for now, we think the important message from this week's meeting was not simply that the Fed raised rates. It was that even after doing so, it still doesn't think that policy is especially tight. And if that's right, there may be still more to do. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Send us Fan MailKristin Vincent is VP of Product at Learning Commons, where she leads teams focused on scaling proven teaching and learning practices. She has spent 20 years building Edtech products, including leadership roles at Pearson and K12.com/Strive.Brian Johnsrud, PhD is OpenAI's Global Head of Educational Engagement. A former K-12 teacher, college lecturer, and education technology researcher, he focuses on helping educators and students use AI to build skills, agency, and new possibilities for learning.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach joins our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen to discuss the Fed's potential next moves and how energy prices are influencing market expectations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today, what the Federal Reserve decided at its September meeting and what it could mean for rates through the end of the year.It's Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm in New York.So, Mike, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting. What stood out to you the most in the decision? And when it comes to inflation, how do you think this 25-basis point rate hike is actually going to affect the inflation outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so certainly the decision was in line with expectations. You know, obviously what we've learned in the very broad sense is that inflation isn't moving fast enough in the direction that the Fed wants. So, it's responding by tighter monetary policy. And that does set up a very interesting question which you just asked, which is: Well, is it going to work? Is this the right response to the inflation that we're seeing?So, if you do go back and reread that Jackson Hole speech, there's not a lot in there about the drivers of inflation, what's causing higher inflation. But it's clear the only response to above target inflation from the point of view of the chair was tighter monetary policy. So, the Fed is in a bit of a pickle.Most of us believe the majority of the inflation we're seeing is supply side driven from tariffs, from energy. At least in the past, let's call it supply chain disruptions, a de-globalization narrative. Some of it is demand side driven through AI. But I think we're all looking at that thinking modestly tighter rates isn't necessarily going to bring down that AI-related inflation.So, we're left to conclude that the Fed's in this uncomfortable position of saying, "Well, a lot of the inflation that we're seeing is supply side driven and from the structural AI story that we're not convinced higher rates can maybe address."So I think the answer would be, if inflation's going to come down, then higher rates will be weighing on the parts of the economy that are more interest rate sensitive and generally soft already.Matthew Hornbach: Is this a one and done? Or do you think that when the Fed actually goes ahead and hikes rates after a long pause, they are thinking about delivering more than just one rate hike?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I strongly believe the committee as a whole is thinking in terms of more than one move. Monetary policy doesn't, say, hyper-react. It reacts with a bit of a delay. So, to your point, they've been on hold for a while. When they think about changing policy, then they're thinking about a series of moves.So, I think in their mind, if they're raising rates, there's a strong probability that they will do at least one more or two more. They're never going to think that a 25-basis-point move in the funds rate will fundamentally change the macro-outlook. So, I don't think they'd ever walk into this thinking one and done.Now, it is possible we get an ex-post one and done. So, how could that come about? If it is true indeed that we're right that a lot of this inflation is supply-side driven. It is coming down. It's clear that the three- and six-month annualized rates are pointing to disinflation into year-end. We can debate whether it's fast enough or not.But if disinflation continues to happen, then the Fed will have hiked, expect to maybe do another one. But by the time we get there, inflation has improved enough, and they end up not doing it.So, they would sound like, "Oh, we're still ready. We still think we've got more work to do." But in the moment, the data just arrives in a way that they stay where they are. So you would look back and say it was a one and done, but I don't think they go into this thinking one rate hike is going to fundamentally change the story.Matthew Hornbach: Now, of course, the data that we'll get between today and the December meeting will likely have an impact on their decision-making – as well as any revisions that we end up getting.And I think one of the stories that investors have been talking about are some of the methodological changes that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is implementing into the PCE inflation data. Do you see any scope for those types of revisions to lend itself to a one and done type of a policy for this year?Michael Gapen: It is possible. There's uncertainty about what actually those revisions are going to bring. But quality adjustments to software, for example, will over time likely bring inflation lower. Some of the revisions to the other categories. So, we do think it will on average lower year-on-year rate of inflation by about 1/10 or so, maybe a little more.So, it could show up on the high side. And then you've got what looks to be a different path.So yes, I think one of the reasons to maybe go slower, think about perhaps a quarterly pace of hikes, as opposed to, "Oh, we're just going to ramp up three, four meetings in a row," is to let some of this play out. See what those revisions look like.So yes, it could contribute to a world where revisions plus softness in the incoming data mean they hike, say, in September, don't do another one after that. Or those revisions are part of the reason why they think a slower-moving cycle rather than a more aggressive one is appropriate.Matthew Hornbach: Does the labor market play any role today in monetary policy?Michael Gapen: I think it's certainly secondary, if not tertiary. I don't want to say that the committee as a whole sees the labor market just fine and we don't have any concerns there.What's super helpful from the rate hike perspective is labor income, wage income out of the labor market is still decelerating and pretty modest. It doesn't suggest that the economy's overheating and the labor market is a source of upward pressure on inflation. So, I think that's beneficial in terms of thinking of the rate hike cycle.In the other direction, I'd say we've had a number of months now of, kind of, you know, let's call it 50,000 to 70,000 jobs a month on average if you kind of smooth through some of the volatility. That's not amazing, but it's not awful either.So Matt, I'd like to turn it back to you. This is of course the economist's perspective. When we translate this into the rates market; rates market clients may have a very different view. But I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think the rates market is dealing with the inflation. I don't want to say impulse, but let's call it the sticky disinflation we're getting, the sources of that inflation, and how it sees monetary policy reacting.How is the rates market digesting all of this?Matthew Hornbach: So, I think actually investors are reasonably nonplussed about what's happening in the underlying rate of inflation in the country. But what has inserted itself into the conversation is the price of energy and how impulsively energy prices have risen over recent months.When we look at how market prices evolve with respect to the path for monetary policy, what we observe empirically is that if energy prices are going up in a given week or in a given month, the market reprices to a more hawkish path for Fed policy. And if energy prices come down in a given week or a given month, and we see the market pricing towards a less hawkish path for monetary policy.So, the primary driver of how the markets are pricing the future of Fed policy is, in fact, the changes in the price of energy commodities. So, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, gasoline prices. And so, this is something that we just can't get away from.There are, of course, other things that do influence the level of Treasury yields, but I would suggest that they are more secondary or tertiary themselves in terms of… Similar to the labor market. I would say they have less of an impact on the overall level of yields.So, with a market-implied hiking cycle from the Fed at about three hikes or so from here, given that the Fed just delivered one rate hike, you know, the 10-year treasury yield is around 5 percent. It was much lower earlier this year, and we were pricing in two rate cuts at that point in time.So, you get the sense that if the market's moving from pricing in two rate cuts to pricing in four rate hikes, and the 10-year yield goes from 4.25 percent to 5 percent, obviously there's a relationship there.One factor that investors are certainly interested in is – how does the debt stock play a role in the level of yields? And one of the things that I've been telling people to consider is that it's not the level of the debt, the amount of debt in the economy that matters most for the level of interest rates – as odd as that may be to hear for listeners. It's how quickly that debt stock grows.So, if the debt stock is going up at a certain pace, and that pace is within the bounds of investor expectations, then it typically doesn't have that big of an impact on the bond market. So, one of the factoids that may surprise people is: about four years ago, the news media was very interested in the fact that the amount of debt in the United States had breached $31 trillion. And, the 10-year treasury yield at that time had peaked at about 4.25 percent, somewhere around there.Well, earlier this year, before the conflict in Iran began, the 10-year treasury yield was also around 4.25 percent. But this is four years later, and over these four years, the U.S. has added $9 trillion to the debt.So, here again, this is a good example, I think, of this idea that you can have a dramatic expansion in the debt from [$]31 trillion to [$]40 trillion, and yet the 10-year treasury yield itself is broadly unchanged.And so that just, I think, should tell investors that it's not the size of the debt that matters per se. Lots of other factors can influence the level of treasury yields. And how the market thinks about the Fed is certainly among the more important of those.So, Mike, just want to say thanks again for taking the time to talk after another FOMC meeting.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Jonathan Jayarajan, Head of European Equity Research Product, is joined by Sanjay Raja, Chief UK Economist, and Helen Belopolsky, Global Head of Geopolitical Research, for a timely discussion on the UK's improving economic prospects and the growing potential disruption risk from Russia.

AI is top of mind for everyone in the investment business. Our Summits are abuzz with curiosity about what others are doing. I asked 8 CIOs to share how they're using AI today, including what's working and what isn't, the tools they've adopted, and where they're headed next. They range from a single-family office with one investment professional to one of the largest pension funds in the world with thousands. What emerged is a range of use cases — from using AI as a personal productivity tool, to changing investment workflows, organizing institutional knowledge, improving decisions, and ultimately trying to generate alpha. You'll also hear some consistency in the tools currently used and different views on how far AI should go in the investment process. Featured in this interview: Abby Barlow, CIO of Westwood Management Laura Hill, CIO of Advocate Health Brian Sugrue, CIO of Shannonbridge Jenny Heller, President and CIO Brandywine Group Advisors John Lawrence, President of Rice Management Company Matt Bank, CIO of GEM Kristin Kallergis Rowland, Global Head of Alternative Investments for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management Jon Webster, Senior Managing Director and COO of Technology & Operations at CPP Investments Try ALEX by Admired Leadership. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠)

She more than doubled her HRV in under a decade, and the behaviour that moved it most was not training, supplements or sleep duration, but going to bed and waking at the same time. This week I sat down with Global Head of Human Performance at WHOOP and author of Aligned, Dr Kristen Holmes, to unpack why sleep-wake consistency is the foundation of a resilient nervous system in midlife. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN - Why is sleep-wake consistency a stronger predictor of mortality and disease than how long you sleep? - How does the contrast between your day and your night affect the severity of menopause symptoms? - What is the physiological sigh, and why did it outperform other anxiety-reducing techniques in the research? - Can you really raise your HRV, and how much of it is genetic rather than modifiable? - Why does eating late at night suppress both sleep quality and overnight recovery? - Why do unresolved trauma and an outcome-driven identity keep your nervous system stuck in fight or flight? TIMESTAMPS 00:00 The One Behaviour That Steadies a Midlife Nervous System 09:12 Why Day and Night Contrast Predicts Milder Menopause Symptoms 17:21 The Physiological Sigh, Winter Light and Why Late Meals Wreck Recovery 26:44 Data or Intuition: Using Your Numbers Without Becoming Obsessed 34:54 The Five Habits Behind a Doubled HRV 44:11 Falling Asleep at the Wheel: The Crash That Rebuilt Her Life 52:30 Unresolved Trauma, Fear and an Identity Wrapped Around Outcomes 01:00:53 Living by Your Values When Willpower Runs Out VALUABLE RESOURCES Aligned: The Data-driven Guide to Performance, Recovery, and Human Potential by Dr Kristen Holmes: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/468591/aligned-by-holmes-kristen/9781529146981 Explore Dr Kristen's work: https://drkristenholmes.com/ Track your recovery with WHOOP: https://www.whoop.com/ A BIG thank you to our sponsor who makes the show possible: • MitoQ - Support your cells at the source with MitoQ NAD+ Dual Action, designed to boost NAD levels and help your cells actually use them for steady energy and sharper focus

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discusses when markets may not adequately compensate investors for uncertainty around themes like Fed policy, AI financing and energy supply.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, what American football can teach us about the value of ambiguity.It's Thursday, September 10th at 2p.m. in London.I really like this time of year. It's a little cooler outside. There's the excitement in the air of a start of a million new school years. And of course, it's finally American football season. Of the top one hundred US television telecasts in 2025, ninety were football games. In an increasingly divided world with an increasingly fragmented ecosystem for content, this unanimity is stunning. And while many factors explain football's popularity, one that I've come to appreciate more with time is its strategic complexity, especially the value of ambiguity.Not tipping whether the play is a run or a pass, disguising whether and where you're going to blitz. Coaches work hard to keep their options open until the last possible moment. And as we enter September, this strategy is not just confined to football.Take the Fed. Markets are pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a rate hike next week, about the same chance that an NFL team passes on second and seven. Part of that uncertainty comes from exactly how you parse Fed Chair Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole. Chair Warsh said the Fed needs to be confident that underlying inflation is moving towards its objective, “clearly and at sufficient speed.” Otherwise, it has, "work to do." This was generally interpreted as a move closer to raising rates. But was it? What is sufficient speed? What counts as underlying inflation? And what does “work to do” actually mean? After all, if inflation is better in the second half of the year, as our economists expect, this framing could just as easily justify no action. We forecast the Fed to stay on hold next week. It is admittedly a close call.Then there's ambiguity in AI financing. The numbers here are enormous. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast more than 1.3 trillion dollars of spending among the six largest hyperscalers in 2027, a sixty percent increase from the record-setting levels of this year. But how all this gets financed, that's less certain. There's an increasingly rich menu of options for financing across public and private markets, from investment-grade bonds to asset-backed securities, from direct financing to guarantees. The spending seems likely, but what form it takes and how much it impacts other markets is more ambiguous. My colleagues Matthew Hornbach and Vichy Tirupattur discussed some of these ambiguities and their potential effect on Treasury yields earlier this week.Finally, ambiguity clouds the energy market. Some analysts are optimistic that oil flows are finally normalizing in the Strait of Hormuz. We are not. Coupled with major disruptions to Russian refining capacity, we've now raised our fourth quarter forecast to one hundred dollars per barrel for Brent oil and eighty-eight euros per megawatt hour for European natural gas.Across these three themes, some of this ambiguity is intentional. Some simply reflects a wide range of possible outcomes. In football and in markets, keeping your options open can be valuable when you're calling the plays, but it's less attractive when you're being asked to price them. And that, for us, is the issue. There is plenty of uncertainty. We're not sure investors are being paid enough for it. A close call September Fed meeting, adverse seasonality, and very low levels of expected volatility leave us positioned for higher volatility across macro markets and cautious on mortgage-backed securities.In credit, we think all of this issuance is a question of price, not capacity. We continue to expect record investment-grade supply this year with wider spreads as a release valve and prefer collateral-backed assets over unsecured corporates. And with oil a risk to both stocks and bonds, our US equity strategists think that energy equities offer an attractive hedge.Ambiguity has value, but when the range of outcomes is wide and the price of uncertainty is low, we think investors should demand more compensation for it.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

AI is turning compute into a strategic resource, and the scramble to secure GPU capacity is starting to look a lot more like a commodity market than a traditional cloud-services business. As data-centre developers, lenders and energy companies try to price the next wave of AI demand, a new question is coming into focus: Can the industry build the kind of benchmark and hedging tools that already exist for oil, gas and power? Host Ed Crooks is joined by Peter Keavey, Global Head of Energy and Environmental Products at CME Group, and Carmen Li, Founder and CEO of Silicon Data. Together, they explore the case for a futures market in GPU compute: a financial product designed to bring more transparency, liquidity and risk management to one of the fastest-growing corners of the AI economy.Carmen explains how the market works today. Most users are not buying chips outright; they are renting access to GPU capacity by the hour, often through longer-term agreements with hyperscalers, neo-cloud providers and data-centre operators. That market is already large, global and increasingly active, but it remains fragmented and opaque, with prices varying by provider, chip type and contract structure, and much of the trading still happening through bilateral deals and requests for quotes.Peter sets out the logic for moving from that over-the-counter world to an exchange-traded one. In his view, a GPU futures contract could do three things at once: reduce counterparty risk through central clearing, concentrate liquidity in a transparent order book, and create forward benchmark prices the wider market can use. The proposed product is financially settled against an index of spot prices, translating an hourly rental market into a standardised monthly contract that could eventually extend several years forward.The bigger issue, though, is energy. Power is not the whole cost of GPU compute, but it is the most volatile variable input, which means a GPU hedge could eventually sit alongside gas and power hedges for data-centre operators, lenders and infrastructure investors. The discussion keeps returning to what that means for markets such as Texas and Virginia, where the AI build-out is already shaping decisions on generation, grid access and where capital should go next.Both guests stress that this is still a young market, but already a volatile one. Rental rates have swung sharply as chip scarcity eases and then tightens again, while banks, traders and developers are trying to make long-dated decisions without a reliable forward curve. If this market develops the way Keavey and Li expect, GPU futures would not just serve traders: they could become an important signal for anyone trying to judge how durable the AI boom really is, and how much energy the system will need to support it.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. Treasurys are the foundation of the bond market. But our strategists Matthew Hornbach and Vishy Tirupattur explain the growing impact of corporate credit as AI financing accelerates.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Vishy Tirupattur: I am Vishy Tirupattur, Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Matthew Hornbach: Today, the interplay between the U.S. Treasury market and the corporate bond market.It's Tuesday, September 8th at 10am in New York.So, Vishy, what I'd like to do is start by asking you what's going on in the corporate bond market? What's coming to market? How much duration does it have? Talk to us about the theme of AI in corporate bonds.Vishy Tirupattur: So, this is what is happening. Hyperscalers have enormous CapEx needs, and they'll see opportunity for realizing return on invested capital; and in anticipation of that, the CapEx requirements for the AI infrastructure are enormous.And the key motivation that underlies is that the demand for compute vastly exceeds the supply of compute. And that as long as that demand-supply imbalance is there, there is a continuing need for CapEx, and that CapEx needs to be financed.And credit markets across the board, not just the unsecured market. You know, credit markets in public space, private, investment grade, unsecured, secured, high yield, below investment grade, leveraged loans, private credit – all of these channels of the credit markets are going to be deployed to enable that financing.Matthew Hornbach: Now, Vishy, you've written about this extensively over the course of the past year and have really been on the forefront of expecting a lot of supply. But have you even been surprised at the scale of the supply that we've gotten from these hyperscalers?Vishy Tirupattur: We are surprised, not so much by the scale of the issuance, but certainly by the breadth and the depth of these markets. And also, the ability of the markets to deal with complexity associated with this issuance. So, you know, about a year ago, we were expecting that much of this would be investment grade only; much of this would be only U.S. dollar denominated. We were wrong.We have seen issuance in seven currencies, and we have seen issuance substantially happen in investment grade, but also in high yield and in leverage loans. And a lot more in structured private investment grade credit and in securitized credit. We have been surprised by the ability of the markets to be both in their depth and the breadth and complexity; clearly been surprised.Matthew Hornbach: And one of the features of some of the issuance that may have been the most impactful on other markets has been the duration of unsecured AI-related financing. Talk to us a little bit about what's going on there.Vishy Tirupattur: So, if you look at the AI infrastructure, you can think of it in many different forms. One way of thinking about is the data centers building – the fab, the LAN, the chips and the servers. If you took the whole data centers, their expected life is something north of 20 years. And there is a lot of CapEx requirements.So initially, when you're financing the entire data center as one package, there has been issuance that went well beyond the 20-year point in the term. And keep in mind that the CapEx requirements are kind of across the board.So, it's not just been 20-plus year bonds. There have been bonds issued of various tenors, including a substantial supply of 20-plus year of duration.Now what is happening is that the focus of some of that is changing towards more shorter-term component of it. So, we've gone from financing the entire data structure, moving towards financing components, and in particular chips.The chips have a technological obsolescence factor associated with them. So, the chips need to be refinanced in about five years. So, the structures that are now increasingly emerging are towards amortizing structures that are more five-year duration, five-year maturity loans.Matthew Hornbach: So, this sounds like an interesting shift from much longer duration, longer maturity issuance to something in what the U.S. Treasury would call the belly of the curve. Kind of in the two to five-year maturity sector. Is that right?Vishy Tirupattur: So yes and no, and I'm hedging only for the following reason: Because a lot of this issuance, these issuers are relatively new in their size of these issuance, so they have not established a certain cadence of issuance.It is not that they have given up on the longer maturity, but the focus is shifting. We expect more to the five-year point of the curve.Another important thing is there has been a significant political pushback on the data centers. We have seen moratoria in the state of New York. It's a very live issue in much of the midterm elections. And opposition to data center is bipartisan, and it's very much alive.So, because of this, we may have some slowdown in the buildup of data centers, therefore slowdown in the long-term CapEx. But then near term, you know, the chips that were bought a few years ago need to be replenished and new chips need to be deployed.So, that financing focus might shift from a longer term to a shorter term. But that said, they're not going to let go entirely of the longer-term financing. Just the focus will shift towards the mid five-year term.Matthew Hornbach: That's very interesting because in the U.S. Treasury market, the focus has not been on the five-year sector. It has been further out the yield curve, where 30-year Treasury yields have been making highs for; that we haven't seen for a couple of decades now. And it hasn't been just in the nominal yield component of Treasuries; it's been in the real yield as well.And, in fact, the difference between the nominal and the real yield, the so-called break-even inflation rate, has actually been very stable throughout this move higher in overall bond yields.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Matt, let me ask you this question. For the last several weeks, we have seen long-end rates, particularly 20-plus year rates being persistently high. What is in your mind driving this persistently high yield in the 20-plus year category?Matthew Hornbach: So, this is something that Treasury Secretary Bessent alluded to in his recent interview on CNBC – that the month of August tends to be a month of lower transaction volumes in the U.S. Treasury market. And in particular, the middle of the month tends to be the lowest transaction volume period within any given month.And so, what we think might be going on is that investors who have been investing in these corporate bonds that you've talked about – may be preparing their own balance sheets for the issuance that most people tend to expect to come in September.Now, if that was the case, then it would be reasonable to assume that those investors tried to sell some of the bonds that they had. Or perhaps just stop buying any bonds in preparation for the supply that they would expect to come in September. If that was the case and the dealer community had to absorb that duration risk onto their balance sheets, they probably would want to recycle that back into the market.And the most liquid way of doing that is to sell treasuries. And so, we do think that there was very likely some selling of treasuries by the dealer community, as they were absorbing corporate bonds from the investor base.Vishy Tirupattur: So that makes sense, Matt. You know, if you think about the dealer community as well as investors, their anticipation of future; corporate bond issuance could drive their actions today.But the only point I would make is that because these are new issuers, and because they have not established a cadence, there could be substantial variability in their frequency. And periodicity that will come to the market. And in what tenor.You know, there's this change I talked about – longer term for financing needs versus component financing needs. There are all these degrees of freedom these issuers have that they can use that degrees of freedom. And the investors and the dealers don't have a lot of sense of what that might be.Matthew Hornbach: It sounds like there's going to be a lot of uncertainty, which might mean that there's going to be a lot of volatility.So, with that Vishy, thanks for sitting down and talking about the bond market with me.Vishy Tirupattur: Great to hang out with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.