Podcasts about monetary

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach joins our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen to discuss the Fed's potential next moves and how energy prices are influencing market expectations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today, what the Federal Reserve decided at its September meeting and what it could mean for rates through the end of the year.It's Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm in New York.So, Mike, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting. What stood out to you the most in the decision? And when it comes to inflation, how do you think this 25-basis point rate hike is actually going to affect the inflation outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so certainly the decision was in line with expectations. You know, obviously what we've learned in the very broad sense is that inflation isn't moving fast enough in the direction that the Fed wants. So, it's responding by tighter monetary policy. And that does set up a very interesting question which you just asked, which is: Well, is it going to work? Is this the right response to the inflation that we're seeing?So, if you do go back and reread that Jackson Hole speech, there's not a lot in there about the drivers of inflation, what's causing higher inflation. But it's clear the only response to above target inflation from the point of view of the chair was tighter monetary policy. So, the Fed is in a bit of a pickle.Most of us believe the majority of the inflation we're seeing is supply side driven from tariffs, from energy. At least in the past, let's call it supply chain disruptions, a de-globalization narrative. Some of it is demand side driven through AI. But I think we're all looking at that thinking modestly tighter rates isn't necessarily going to bring down that AI-related inflation.So, we're left to conclude that the Fed's in this uncomfortable position of saying, "Well, a lot of the inflation that we're seeing is supply side driven and from the structural AI story that we're not convinced higher rates can maybe address."So I think the answer would be, if inflation's going to come down, then higher rates will be weighing on the parts of the economy that are more interest rate sensitive and generally soft already.Matthew Hornbach: Is this a one and done? Or do you think that when the Fed actually goes ahead and hikes rates after a long pause, they are thinking about delivering more than just one rate hike?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I strongly believe the committee as a whole is thinking in terms of more than one move. Monetary policy doesn't, say, hyper-react. It reacts with a bit of a delay. So, to your point, they've been on hold for a while. When they think about changing policy, then they're thinking about a series of moves.So, I think in their mind, if they're raising rates, there's a strong probability that they will do at least one more or two more. They're never going to think that a 25-basis-point move in the funds rate will fundamentally change the macro-outlook. So, I don't think they'd ever walk into this thinking one and done.Now, it is possible we get an ex-post one and done. So, how could that come about? If it is true indeed that we're right that a lot of this inflation is supply-side driven. It is coming down. It's clear that the three- and six-month annualized rates are pointing to disinflation into year-end. We can debate whether it's fast enough or not.But if disinflation continues to happen, then the Fed will have hiked, expect to maybe do another one. But by the time we get there, inflation has improved enough, and they end up not doing it.So, they would sound like, "Oh, we're still ready. We still think we've got more work to do." But in the moment, the data just arrives in a way that they stay where they are. So you would look back and say it was a one and done, but I don't think they go into this thinking one rate hike is going to fundamentally change the story.Matthew Hornbach: Now, of course, the data that we'll get between today and the December meeting will likely have an impact on their decision-making – as well as any revisions that we end up getting.And I think one of the stories that investors have been talking about are some of the methodological changes that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is implementing into the PCE inflation data. Do you see any scope for those types of revisions to lend itself to a one and done type of a policy for this year?Michael Gapen: It is possible. There's uncertainty about what actually those revisions are going to bring. But quality adjustments to software, for example, will over time likely bring inflation lower. Some of the revisions to the other categories. So, we do think it will on average lower year-on-year rate of inflation by about 1/10 or so, maybe a little more.So, it could show up on the high side. And then you've got what looks to be a different path.So yes, I think one of the reasons to maybe go slower, think about perhaps a quarterly pace of hikes, as opposed to, "Oh, we're just going to ramp up three, four meetings in a row," is to let some of this play out. See what those revisions look like.So yes, it could contribute to a world where revisions plus softness in the incoming data mean they hike, say, in September, don't do another one after that. Or those revisions are part of the reason why they think a slower-moving cycle rather than a more aggressive one is appropriate.Matthew Hornbach: Does the labor market play any role today in monetary policy?Michael Gapen: I think it's certainly secondary, if not tertiary. I don't want to say that the committee as a whole sees the labor market just fine and we don't have any concerns there.What's super helpful from the rate hike perspective is labor income, wage income out of the labor market is still decelerating and pretty modest. It doesn't suggest that the economy's overheating and the labor market is a source of upward pressure on inflation. So, I think that's beneficial in terms of thinking of the rate hike cycle.In the other direction, I'd say we've had a number of months now of, kind of, you know, let's call it 50,000 to 70,000 jobs a month on average if you kind of smooth through some of the volatility. That's not amazing, but it's not awful either.So Matt, I'd like to turn it back to you. This is of course the economist's perspective. When we translate this into the rates market; rates market clients may have a very different view. But I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think the rates market is dealing with the inflation. I don't want to say impulse, but let's call it the sticky disinflation we're getting, the sources of that inflation, and how it sees monetary policy reacting.How is the rates market digesting all of this?Matthew Hornbach: So, I think actually investors are reasonably nonplussed about what's happening in the underlying rate of inflation in the country. But what has inserted itself into the conversation is the price of energy and how impulsively energy prices have risen over recent months.When we look at how market prices evolve with respect to the path for monetary policy, what we observe empirically is that if energy prices are going up in a given week or in a given month, the market reprices to a more hawkish path for Fed policy. And if energy prices come down in a given week or a given month, and we see the market pricing towards a less hawkish path for monetary policy.So, the primary driver of how the markets are pricing the future of Fed policy is, in fact, the changes in the price of energy commodities. So, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, gasoline prices. And so, this is something that we just can't get away from.There are, of course, other things that do influence the level of Treasury yields, but I would suggest that they are more secondary or tertiary themselves in terms of… Similar to the labor market. I would say they have less of an impact on the overall level of yields.So, with a market-implied hiking cycle from the Fed at about three hikes or so from here, given that the Fed just delivered one rate hike, you know, the 10-year treasury yield is around 5 percent. It was much lower earlier this year, and we were pricing in two rate cuts at that point in time.So, you get the sense that if the market's moving from pricing in two rate cuts to pricing in four rate hikes, and the 10-year yield goes from 4.25 percent to 5 percent, obviously there's a relationship there.One factor that investors are certainly interested in is – how does the debt stock play a role in the level of yields? And one of the things that I've been telling people to consider is that it's not the level of the debt, the amount of debt in the economy that matters most for the level of interest rates – as odd as that may be to hear for listeners. It's how quickly that debt stock grows.So, if the debt stock is going up at a certain pace, and that pace is within the bounds of investor expectations, then it typically doesn't have that big of an impact on the bond market. So, one of the factoids that may surprise people is: about four years ago, the news media was very interested in the fact that the amount of debt in the United States had breached $31 trillion. And, the 10-year treasury yield at that time had peaked at about 4.25 percent, somewhere around there.Well, earlier this year, before the conflict in Iran began, the 10-year treasury yield was also around 4.25 percent. But this is four years later, and over these four years, the U.S. has added $9 trillion to the debt.So, here again, this is a good example, I think, of this idea that you can have a dramatic expansion in the debt from [$]31 trillion to [$]40 trillion, and yet the 10-year treasury yield itself is broadly unchanged.And so that just, I think, should tell investors that it's not the size of the debt that matters per se. Lots of other factors can influence the level of treasury yields. And how the market thinks about the Fed is certainly among the more important of those.So, Mike, just want to say thanks again for taking the time to talk after another FOMC meeting.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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Cyber and Operational Risk in the Quantum Era: Financial Stability amid Escalating Geopolitical ConflictThis panel took place at the 2026 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings.Financial stability is under fire as geopolitics and cyber risk collide. As global tensions intensify and technological capabilities accelerate, financial institutions face a rapidly evolving threat landscape where cyber operations, financial crime, and state-sponsored actors are increasingly intertwined. From ransomware campaigns and sanctions evasion to sophisticated cyber intrusions targeting critical infrastructure, adversaries are exploiting digital systems and global financial networks in new and complex ways.As these threats continue to evolve, the quantum horizon introduces an additional layer of strategic risk. This executive panel will examine how advances in quantum computing could reshape cyber and operational risk across the financial sector, while also considering the growing convergence between cyber-enabled crime, ransomware payments, sanctions evasion, and global illicit finance networks. Leaders from policy, finance, and technology will explore the implications of quantum-enabled decryption, the expanding links between cyber threats and illicit finance, and the operational vulnerabilities that could undermine confidence in critical financial infrastructure.The discussion focused on how institutions and regulators can strengthen resilience, enhance cross-border coordination, and prepare for a future in which emerging technologies, cyber conflict, ransomware, and financial crime increasingly intersect. The panel explored what these developments mean for international efforts to combat cyber-enabled financial crime and how global standards bodies, national authorities, and financial institutions can strengthen cooperation to protect the integrity and resilience of the international financial system.Opening Remarks:Cindy Termorshuizen, Deputy Minister of International Development, Government of CanadaPanelists:Giles Thomson, Director, Economic Crime and Sanctions, His Majesty's Treasury; Incoming President, FATFStefan Ingves, Chair, Toronto Centre; Former Governor, Sveriges RiksbankMichele Mosca, Professor, Institute for Quantum Computing, University of WaterlooModerator:Jennifer Elliott, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets, IMF; Board Member, Toronto CentreWatch the executive panel session here.Read the transcript here. Read their biographies here.

The following article of the Tech industry is: “New US Monetary Cycle Is Driving Real Estate Evolution in 2026” by Iván Chomer, CEO, Dividenz (AA2573)

Because banks were chartered by the states, the monetary fight was fought mainly in state legislatures, and Rothbard follows it across the Union. Proposals ranged from the modest—permitting failing banks to suspend specie payment while continuing to operate—to the radical creation of state-owned banks and loan offices issuing inconvertible paper. Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee went the full distance. Some states even attempted to outlaw the depreciation of bank notes by statute. The results converted several prominent inflationists, including future leaders of the Jacksonian hard-money movement.

A smaller but more theoretically ambitious group looked past the states to a national inconvertible currency. Rothbard examines their schemes in detail: suspension of specie payments by the Bank of the United States, permanent abandonment of redemption, and the elaborate proposal of "An Anti-Bullionist," who anticipated a specie-exchange standard with a government board regulating note issue against foreign exchange rates. Thomas Law of Washington emerged as the movement's leading advocate. None of the plans reached a vote, but Treasury Secretary Crawford's reluctant rejection of the idea provoked some of the sharpest monetary analysis of the era.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Jackson Hole for signals on the economic outlook and the path for rates. Our Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen joins Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach to discuss whether markets get what they want—or what the Fed needs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today, we'll be discussing the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and Chairman Warsh's opening remarks. It's Thursday, August 27th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, let's get right into it and talk about the upcoming opening remarks by Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that will be delivered to the public at 10 am tomorrow, Friday. How are you thinking about what to expect from those opening remarks? Michael Gapen: Well, historically, and by historically, I mean in a post-2008-2009 world, Jackson Hole has been used, not every year, but frequently as a venue to communicate to markets. The longest gap on the Fed's meeting calendar is between the July and September meetings. So, Jackson Hole falls between that and provides a useful opportunity to communicate what might be coming. That's what's normally been done. Warsh has repeatedly stated he wants the Fed to talk less and communicate less and say less. So, I don't think we will see or hear, in this case, a lot about his views about how the economy is operating today and how monetary policy may be conducted into year-end. So, I don't think we'll hear a lot about, say, the December; the outlook for the economy from September to December, and what it might imply for interest rate policy or balance sheet policy. So, little in the way of near-term forward guidance. I do think, however, he did say in the July press conference that the venue would be good to tackle some of these big questions that he has talked about, that he's created these task forces for. So, whether it is the balance sheet or the inflation framework, or communication or AI and productivity or data quality and so forth. This would provide, I think, a reasonable opportunity for him to start talking about that. I don't think maybe we'll get a lot of conclusions. But I would look for commentary that's more in the question; or in the spirit of those big questions and less about the near-term conduct of policy.So maybe not what markets want, but this is what markets will get. Matt Hornbach: Just rewinding a bit, the conference itself is on a somewhat of a niche topic. What exactly is the conference about? And, in terms of the papers that get released at the conference, do you have any sense as to where they might be headed? Michael Gapen: So, the topic of this conference, the economic symposium, as you noted, is Financial Innovation: [its] Implications for [the] Payments [system] and [monetary] Policy. So, I would expect there to be a lot of sessions for things like central bank digital currencies or stable coins or Bitcoins. Near money type innovation that has happened in recent years, which leads to things like competition for deposits from the non-financial sector vis-a-vis the financial sector. So, a competition of near moneyness to money, if you will. Its implications for the interaction between the non-financial system and the financial system, competition for deposits. Does it create risks around financial disintermediation? And therefore, how might the regulatory environment and monetary policy work in that world? So little more, I'll call it, esoteric and maybe arm's length from the day-to-day conduct of policy. But I would look at the speeches probably in that vein. Deposit competition, financial market stability, and what kind of regulatory framework might you need to ensure we can still conduct policy effectively in that world. Matt Hornbach: Sounds like an exciting set of papers… Michael Gapen: Yes. Yes. Matt Hornbach: … for professors to read through. Michael Gapen: This is why they don't often leak the schedule too far in advance, right? We all might decide not to listen. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Well, it is the end of August, and people are probably still on holiday here and there… Michael Gapen: I'm doing my best, but you called me in today. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, the least I could do. So, you did mention that this might be an opportunity for Chairman Warsh to maybe spotlight a bit these task forces and the topics that they're tackling, one of which is the inflation framework. And that word framework, I think, is important because the investors that we've been speaking with are frustrated that the Fed has not really laid out a framework – for monetary policymaking in this new era of Chairman Warsh, and his leadership at the Fed. So, I'm curious, if we're not going to get forward guidance on monetary policy and what will happen at the next meeting. And we're also not going to get much forward guidance on the framework that the Fed is using to decide on what to do with short-term interest rates. What are we meant to think about the framework? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think ultimately, of course, we're going to need to know this, and this is what economists would refer to as the ‘difference between forward guidance and the "reaction function." So, the framework is really, you've got a set of tools, how do you intend to use them to achieve your objectives? A conventional Fed would say, "Well, if interest rates are low and inflation's too high, then we should raise rates," right? So high inflation brings high interest rates, low inflation brings low interest rates. All else equal, there's still the employment side of the mandate, of course. And the market had that view, at least initially, right? As we were in the June-July period and Warsh was talking hawkishly, the curve generally flattened. Expectations for front-end yields moved higher, and inflation-fighting credibility maybe kept the back end stable or brought the back end down. So, you could argue the markets looked at Warsh as maybe bringing a conventional reaction function and a conventional framework. But in the June and July FOMC meeting and in conversations with the press during the press conferences, Warsh – I don't want to say backtracked. He just didn't validate that and did say that we will achieve price stability. Didn't quite say how he would use the tools to do that. And even suggested maybe interest rates weren't the primary mechanism with which to influence, create, deliver price stability. So, the curve then steepened out. So, I think the market is wondering what Fed chair we have and what his reaction function is? And if inflation's running hot, is it an interest rate answer or is it a balance sheet answer? I'd also just add one last thing, Matt, is it makes a difference what the rest of the 18 people on the FOMC think. [Be]cause I think you would agree, and I'll put forward right now, I think they have a largely conventional view. Half of the committee thought it was time to raise rates in June. So, we have a balance between not knowing the chair's framework and having to intuit it. Or hope that we hear more. But then also knowing the other 18 who could band together and have greater voting power act in a largely conventional framework. I think that's the debate and the dilemma that we're all dealing with. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, I think investors, have certainly expressed frustration about the lack of guidance in any form or fashion. Perhaps with the exception of the balance sheet; we have a general idea that the balance sheet will be smaller in the future. And we have a sense from what Chairman Warsh has said in front of the House of Representatives during his semi-annual testimony that any changes would happen gradually over time. But, in terms of the pricing of the July meeting, and what happened at the July meeting, investors were very disappointed that the Fed did not go ahead and raise rates in July. Now, the market was only assigning about a one in three odds of a rate hike in July. And so, the fact that the Fed did not go ahead and raise interest rates in July was not a surprise in the sense of market pricing. But I do sense that investors were frustrated; that because they didn't get much forward guidance going into the July meeting, that the market might not have priced more probability on a July rate hike because the Fed, in fact, did not signal that they were leaning in that direction. But I see it as somewhat ironic because it seems to me, and I'd like to get your view on this. It seems to me that Chairman Warsh doesn't want to provide that type of specificity. He'd rather have the markets tell him what to do at an upcoming meeting, as opposed to him telling markets what to do at an upcoming meeting. How do you think about that? Michael Gapen: Oh, I think it's… [It] strains credibility to think that by saying nothing, you get the market's interpretation of the economy, data, and events – without the market thinking what the Fed thinks about it. I don't think that there's a world where you get the unvarnished market expectation independent of the Fed. So, I don't personally agree in the analogy of the market should play the ball and not the referee. The Fed is not a referee in markets. The Fed is a player in markets. Monetary policy acts through financial markets to achieve a set of financial conditions to deliver price stability and maximum employment. So, the Fed and markets are on the field at the same time. The Fed, in some ways, is the 800-pound gorilla on the field at the same time. So, everybody else on the field has to know what the gorilla is doing in order to do what they're supposed to do. Yes, there's always some circularity between Fed communication and market reaction to that. But I think that's natural and normal and important in making monetary policy effective – meaning it has to transmit through financial markets. And so, you could diminish the effectiveness of monetary policy if you don't tell the market what, at least what your framework is and what your reaction function is. And the tools that you intend to use and how you would intend to use them. Then the market could be an inefficient transmitter of monetary policy. So, I disagree with the notion that by saying less, the Fed learns more. But that's my view. I'm one of many. That's my opinion. The chair obviously has a different view. Matt Hornbach: Well, I can certainly understand not wanting to be the referee, especially after what we saw at the World Cup. There were a couple of games where the referee… Michael Gapen: And nobody likes the referee. At least half the people are upset with the referee. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Okay. So, Mike, I think we're going to leave it there. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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Oggi Tether detiene più titoli di Stato statunitensi di molti Paesi sovrani. Bitcoin sta sfidando l'oro come riserva di valore, mentre le stablecoin stanno diventando l'infrastruttura portante dell'economia digitale. Stiamo assistendo a un rafforzamento del sistema del dollaro o all'inizio di un mondo post-dollaro? Questo episodio è stato registrato live a The Last Question, a Roma, l'1 e il 2 luglio 2026. Iscriviti a Black Box Script, la nuova newsletter di Black Box: ⁠https://blackboxchora.substack.com/ Scopri i corsi della New Media Academy, la scuola di podcasting e digital journalism di Chora e Will: https://newmediacademy.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  To learn more about Beverly Hills Precious Metals, please visit https://melkgold.com   Or https://bh-pm.com Promo Code MelK   There are many ways to protect your sovereignty from those seeking to take it away. Prepare and take action to protect your financial freedom and consider solutions away from the institutional financial technocracy.   We encourage you to explore investing in precious metals by contacting Andrew Sorchini and his precious metals team at Beverly Hills Precious Metals.   Andrew and his team are committed to bringing The Mel K Show subscribers the highest quality service and support.   To learn more, please visit:https://melkgold.com and we'll be in touch!   Thank you all for your support and we hope that this content and service help you find some peace of mind in these unprecedented times.   Towards Truth & Justice,   Mel & Rob

“Just because I think something is dumb doesn't mean I think it should be illegal.” — Nicholas Anthony on meme coins Earlier this month, Elizabeth Warren called for an SEC investigation of Donald Trump's meme coin. Is the Pope Catholic? No surprise there. More revealing are other critics of the “presidential” token which netted our Grifter-in-Chief $636 million last year. Take, for example, Nicholas Anthony, an expert on crypto at the Cato Institute and author of Digital Currency or Digital Control? It's news when an unashamed libertarian from Washington's own temple of free markets calls the president's crypto adventure “completely unnecessary.” Maybe the Pope isn't Catholic. Or maybe Elizabeth Warren should join the Cato Institute. Anthony's verdict is withering because, under his libertarian shell, he's a crypto bro. The meme coin “has been a problem for everyone but Trump,” he argues, because it has held up legislation, invited investigations, and weaponized ethics concerns about crypto. “We have no one to blame except Trump…” Anthony concludes bleakly. “He knew better than to do it, but he saw the opportunity and ran with it.” When I accused Anthony of sounding like Elizabeth Warren, he was more amused than offended. Unlike the Warren crowd, however, he doesn't want to ban crypto. “Just because I think something is dumb,” he says, “doesn't mean I think it should be illegal.” So while Trump-style meme coins are a natural habitat for what he calls “rug pulls,” that shouldn't be an excuse for lawmakers to pull the rug from the entire industry. Crypto can still revolutionize finance, Anthony believes. It can democratize centralized banking. It can make money fairer. Just don't confuse that with a Melania meme coin. Five Takeaways •       A Hard No from Cato. The week's most surprising critic of Trump's meme coin isn't a Democrat — it's a Cato libertarian. Anthony's verdict: “completely unnecessary,” legally gray but ethically indefensible, and “a problem for everyone but Trump” — stalling the crypto legislation the industry actually wants, inviting investigations, and handing opponents a weapon. The explanation is pure self-interest: the first-term Trump attacked crypto as competition to the dollar and pushed policies hostile to the space; the second-term convert was swayed by industry lobbying and campaign money, the opportunity for personal enrichment, and crypto's libertarian-conservative DNA. “We have no one to blame except for Trump… He knew better than to do it, but he saw the opportunity and ran with it.”•       Dumb, But Not Illegal. The libertarian line in one sentence: “Just because I think something is dumb doesn't mean I think it should be illegal.” Meme coins are “a trading card of sorts” — their value is the person behind them, held up only as long as people stay amused — and a natural habitat for rug pulls, where insiders manufacture interest and vanish with the proceeds. Anthony opposes bans; he demands disclosure, and insists fraud be prosecuted whether it's snake oil from a cart or a token from a president. Hence the kicker: a Warren-style investigation of the sitting president is “perfectly reasonable,” and “if it turns out he was doing something behind the scenes, then I think he should be prosecuted for it.” From what he's seen, the fans knew what they were buying — but the line between brilliantly marketed and fraudulently sold is exactly what investigations exist to draw.•       The Dollar Launders Better. Isn't crypto the ideal vehicle for laundering money? “Not so much. The US dollar is definitely the ideal vehicle” — and remains the currency of choice for criminals worldwide. The numbers: roughly one percent of cryptocurrency activity has been identified as illegal, against about five percent of US dollar usage — because the dollar is accepted everywhere, even in criminal circles, and cash, once it leaves your hand, is gone. Most cryptocurrencies, by contrast, run on public blockchains: permanent, searchable records that forensic accounting firms mine daily, and that keep catching criminals who never understood that the ledger remembers everything. The moral panic, Anthony suggests, is aimed at the wrong instrument.•       Free Banking's Revenge. The deeper Cato case: cryptocurrency — born of cypherpunk and libertarian ideas after the 2008 crisis — is “for the first time in over a hundred years, the challenge to the idea that central banks have complete and total ownership of what is money.” Its ancestors are Scottish free banking and the note-issuing American banks that cleared payments for decades before the Federal Reserve existed. The prosecution's exhibits against central banking: Zimbabwe's hyperinflation queues, where friends of Anthony's watched food become unaffordable while they waited in line, and the slower American version — $10,000 bought two Corvettes in 1970 and needs to be $80,000 today. No utopias: Bitcoin won't erase the debt. But competition would supply the missing incentive for governments to be “better stewards of currency” — and the practice already exists, from Argentina and Lebanon to the crypto hubs of Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya.•       Swept Up by Trump. The sadder confession concerns his own side: “Sadly, many conservatives have been swept up by Trump… the president can do no wrong” — Ted Cruz and Mike Lee among the obsequious, blocking the ethics language Democrats want attached to crypto legislation. The principled exception is Wyoming's Cynthia Lummis: pro-Trump, yes, but one of the rare members of Congress who has done the technical and philosophical homework. The industry itself — Coinbase included — walks a careful line around the man who will sign its rules into law, seeing the damage but saying little. Anthony acknowledges his privilege: “Here at the Cato Institute, I can call balls and strikes.” As for the wider economy: a storm in a teacup for now — while crypto's speculative fever has migrated to AI, whose models are quietly integrating the coins as their payment rails. It's not what Satoshi envisioned; the cypherpunks and the bankers will split the inheritance. About the Guest Nicholas Anthony is a research fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, a fellow at the Human Rights Foundation, and a member of the Economic Inclusion Group's Advisory Board. His research covers central bank digital currencies, financial privacy, cryptocurrency, and the use of money in society. The author of Digital Currency or Digital Control? Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money, he has testified before Congress, maintains the Human Rights Foundation's CBDC Tracker, and has been published in the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, and Business Insider. Originally from Baltimore, he holds an MA in economics from George Mason University. References: •       Digital Currency or Digital Control? Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money by Nicholas Anthony (Cato Institute).•       Senator Elizabeth Warr...

The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report is a twice yearly, must read. Leading the excellent research done here is Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. It was a pleasure to welcome Tobias to the podcast to explore the IMF's financial stability framework, vulnerabilities in global markets, and the evolving risks shaping the financial system. We begin with Tobias' role and the evolution of the GFSR, which combines market intelligence, analytical research, and a framework for assessing financial vulnerabilities. He explains how the report has shifted alongside the macro backdrop, from an environment defined by low inflation and negative-yielding debt to one characterized by higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty. A central theme throughout the conversation is the distinction between forecasting shocks and identifying vulnerabilities. Tobias describes how the IMF focuses on leverage, maturity transformation, valuation, currency mismatches, and interconnectedness rather than attempting to predict the next catalyst. The discussion explores how these vulnerabilities can amplify the effects of unexpected shocks across financial markets. We then turn to several themes from the most recent GFSR. Tobias discusses artificial intelligence as both a driver of investment and productivity while examining the financial linkages, capital spending, and interconnectedness developing across the AI ecosystem. He also outlines the IMF's assessment of sovereign debt, rising term premiums, and the growing role of non-bank financial institutions in financing global markets. The latter part of the discussion focuses on market plumbing, including leverage in hedge funds, Treasury basis trades, derivatives markets, and the challenges of monitoring system-wide positioning. Tobias explains how liquidity, options markets, and quantitative strategies can contribute to vulnerabilities that become apparent during periods of market stress. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Tobias Adrian.

Cyber and Operational Risk in the Quantum Era: Financial Stability amid Escalating Geopolitical ConflictThis panel took place at the 2026 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings.Financial stability is under fire as geopolitics and cyber risk collide. As global tensions intensify and technological capabilities accelerate, financial institutions face a rapidly evolving threat landscape where cyber operations, financial crime, and state-sponsored actors are increasingly intertwined. From ransomware campaigns and sanctions evasion to sophisticated cyber intrusions targeting critical infrastructure, adversaries are exploiting digital systems and global financial networks in new and complex ways.As these threats continue to evolve, the quantum horizon introduces an additional layer of strategic risk. This executive panel will examine how advances in quantum computing could reshape cyber and operational risk across the financial sector, while also considering the growing convergence between cyber-enabled crime, ransomware payments, sanctions evasion, and global illicit finance networks. Leaders from policy, finance, and technology will explore the implications of quantum-enabled decryption, the expanding links between cyber threats and illicit finance, and the operational vulnerabilities that could undermine confidence in critical financial infrastructure.The discussion focused on how institutions and regulators can strengthen resilience, enhance cross-border coordination, and prepare for a future in which emerging technologies, cyber conflict, ransomware, and financial crime increasingly intersect. The panel explored what these developments mean for international efforts to combat cyber-enabled financial crime and how global standards bodies, national authorities, and financial institutions can strengthen cooperation to protect the integrity and resilience of the international financial system.Opening Remarks:Cindy Termorshuizen, Deputy Minister of International Development, Government of CanadaPanelists:Giles Thomson, Director, Economic Crime and Sanctions, His Majesty's Treasury; Incoming President, FATFStefan Ingves, Chair, Toronto Centre; Former Governor, Sveriges RiksbankMichele Mosca, Professor, Institute for Quantum Computing, University of WaterlooModerator:Jennifer Elliott, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets, IMF; Board Member, Toronto CentreWatch the executive panel session here.Read the transcript here. Read their biographies here.

Andy and Jeff wrap up their quarterback conversation and share their thoughts on the latest franchise valuations that have been published around the NFL.

Hour 2 of Baskin and Phelps

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to explain why the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3/early Q4 of last year — and what that means for the rest of 2026. His core argument: money is fungible but finite, and a booming real economy is now pulling liquidity out of financial assets, which compresses P/E multiples even as earnings look fine. That puts us in what he calls the speculation phase: rising bond yields, strong commodities, pressured crypto, and low-quality equity returns where index gains mask widespread underperformance. He also pushes back hard on the popular "debasement trade" explanation for gold, arguing the real driver is the People's Bank of China injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while holding it steady externally — with Chinese retail locked out of crypto and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the marginal price. On the bond side, he lays out how the Treasury is quietly monetizing through front-end issuance and buybacks — private-sector QE under Treasury direction — a strategy that works until it doesn't, with Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3% as the cautionary tale. His bottom line: range-bound Wall Street, no bonds, gold and silver on weakness, and watch commodities for the first sign the boom is ending.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 The call: range-bound market, own gold0:20 Welcome back, Michael Howell1:19 Two pools of money: markets vs. the real economy2:30 The liquidity cycle has peaked3:20 What this phase looks like4:48 Why a booming economy is bad for stocks5:22 The P/E multiple is where liquidity shows up6:34 Late cycle, explained7:38 Augusta Precious Metals9:29 Global liquidity vs. the world business cycle10:45 Atlanta Fed nowcast near 6%11:54 The K-shaped economy is global12:45 Monetary inflation vs. Main Street inflation14:45 Speculation now, turbulence next15:15 The cycle map17:55 Monetary Metals19:49 Gold: it isn't the debasement trade20:30 It's China: PBOC liquidity22:15 Why gold and not crypto23:14 Inside the PBOC balance sheet25:00 Yuan gold and the 27,000 line26:15 Bond yields track nominal GDP27:40 NGDP at 7-8% vs. a 4.7% ten-year28:18 Treasury QE: funding at the front end30:20 Who's actually buying the debt?30:51 The beach ball under water32:35 The two-year note leads the Fed34:30 The 2022 analogue36:00 Why MOVE matters more than VIX37:08 Treasury buybacks and the volatility cap38:30 Margin debt and the 2026 range call39:31 Parting thoughts: commodities as the warning40:30 Gold, silver, and the ratio to watch

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Ed Coyne welcomes back Ronnie Stöferle to discuss the 20th anniversary edition of the In Gold We Trust report, Back to the Monetary Future. Ronnie reflects on two decades of gold's evolution as a monetary asset, central bank buying and the new thinking on gold's place in modern portfolios. The conversation also explores why gold's simplicity, liquidity and lack of counterparty risk may matter more than ever in an increasingly uncertain financial system.This podcast is provided for information purposes only from sources believed to be reliable. However, Sprott does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein.This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Sprott. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitute your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of Sprott.

Everyone talks about inflation and interest rates, but far fewer people can explain how they're connected or why the RBA only really has one tool to work with. In part two of the four-part series, Ana and economist Evan Lucas get into what inflation actually is, why a bit of it is a good thing, and why the same rate rise can flatten a young family while barely touching someone who's already paid off their house.In this episode we'll discuss:

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Hour 2 of the Bob Rose Show, on the first Federal Reserve benchmark rate announcement under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Monetary policy, economic volitivity, and the impact on Main Street, plus all of Thursday morning's biggest stories for 7-30-26

"Your savings represent hours you worked, risks you accepted, businesses you built, time spent away from people you love, and consumption you postponed for the sake of the future. When the monetary system allows others to dilute those savings without your consent, it weakens your claim on that future. Bitcoin offers a peaceful alternative, giving every individual access to property that cannot be created without limit, altered for political convenience, or administered according to a different set of rules for the powerful." "Two hundred and fifty years ago, Americans declared that they would no longer live as subjects. […] the best way to honor that inheritance is not merely to look backward and celebrate what they accomplished. It is to identify the unfinished work of freedom in our own time and do our part to advance it." ~ Cory Klippsten Today I'm reading Cory Klippsten's latest piece, The Battle for Monetary Independence. Cory uses his grandfather's World War II journal to show that real historical changes aren't won through sudden heroic events, but built on quiet, unglamorous, day-to-day work. Bull markets get the hype while bear markets do the actual heavy lifting. I share my thoughts on what true monetary freedom looks like and the few things that matter far more than waiting for Wall Street's permission. Check out the original article: The Battle for Monetary Independence by Cory Klippsten (Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/essay/the-battle-for-monetary-independence/) Host Links ⁠⁠Guy on Nostr ⁠(Link: http://tinyurl.com/2xc96ney) Guy on X ⁠(Link: https://twitter.com/theguyswann) Guy on Instagram (Link: https://www.instagram.com/theguyswann) Guy on TikTok (Link: https://www.tiktok.com/@theguyswann) Guy's Takes on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@GuysTake) Guy Swann on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann) Bitcoin Audible on X⁠ (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible) The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839) Check out our awesome partners! Become sovereign, hold your keys, be censorship resistant with the Bitbox hardware wallet. Get 5% off everything in the store with code GUY (Link: https://bitbox.swiss/guy) Get 10% off the best Bitcoin board game in the world, HODLUP! Or any of the other great games from The Free Market Kids! Use code GUY10 at checkout for 10% off your cart! (Link: https://www.freemarketkids.com/collections/games-1) "People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take." ~ Emma Goldman

Bitcoin analyst Matthew Mezinskis joins the show to defend the power law model against recent criticism, arguing the curve remains intact and Bitcoin is trading near historical lows relative to its trend. He breaks down why exponential models fail to capture Bitcoin's network growth, compares the power curve to stock-to-flow and Plan B projections, and examines global monetary base expansion, Fed balance sheet trends, and the intersection of Bitcoin's scalable growth with TradFi's volatile exponential debt. The discussion covers log periodic cycle analysis, generational buying levels, and what happens when Bitcoin's power trend collides with fiat's unsustainable compounding. Matthew on X: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ Find the Home Mining Playbook here: https://www.tftc.io/home-mining-energy-playbook STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Block: Cash App: For a limited time, new customers can get $21 added to their balance. Just use code TFTC10 when you sign up, and send at least $5 to a friend in the first two weeks. Terms apply. Bitcoin services by Block, Inc. See the Bitcoin disclosures at cash.app/legal/podcast. Square: Visit http://square.com/go/**tftc** for up to $200 off eligible Square hardware. Bitkey: Use code TFTC10 for 10% off the new Bitkey. Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/ Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc**!** #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 23 July 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260723~b6fadd48f4.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260723~ef801dc812.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB

Bram Kanstein is a creative entrepreneur and the host of Bitcoin for Millennials, exploring Bitcoin not as a trade, but as essential savings technology and a rational opt-out from a failing fiat money system.› https://x.com/bramkPARTNERS

‘Monetary policy for us is one of the bigger risks that we see at the moment' – Warren Buhai, senior portfolio manager at STANLIB Asset Management.

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Brady and John kick off with World Cup excitement, celebrating Team USA's gritty performance and using the tournament as a metaphor for global monetary competition The discussion explores the emergence of OpenUSD (OUSD), a new stablecoin standard backed by more than 140 companies, and whether it represents meaningful decentralization or simply a private-sector version of a CBDC The hosts argue that despite branding around openness and neutrality, OUSD remains a centralized, censorable dollar token fundamentally different from Bitcoin John frames money as an ongoing global competition, suggesting that Bitcoin and fiat currencies are likely to coexist for many years due to the enormous network effects of existing monetary systems Alex Thorn's Bitcoin bottom indicators show several classic bear market signals triggering, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom while acknowledging this cycle differs in magnitude from prior ones The conversation examines the persistence of Bitcoin's four-year timing cycle, debating whether market participants' expectations could become self-fulfilling and drive renewed momentum later in the year Macro charts highlight continued expansion of the U.S. money supply and federal debt, reinforcing Bitcoin's long-term monetary thesis despite current market weakness The hosts discuss signs that speculative crypto venture capital is collapsing while AI attracts investment, arguing that 2025 may ultimately be remembered as the end of the crypto boom rather than Bitcoin itself Brady closes with a Fourth of July reflection, arguing that Bitcoin embodies the principles of individual liberty, property rights, and sound money that animated America's founding debates ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

The first organized big-business push for banking reform. Rothbard recounts how the 1896–97 Indianapolis Monetary Convention, backed by Morgan- and Rockefeller-tied elites, enlisted economists to press for the gold standard and a centralized, more “elastic” banking system.

The theory put into practice: imposing the gold-exchange standard on U.S. dependencies and client states—Puerto Rico, the Philippines, Mexico, and others—administered by a cadre of economists and academics and tying client currencies to the dollar.

One of the biggest debates in churches today is, “Should preachers get paid?” and if they should, then how much? Where do you draw the line? Is he to make more than the average income of the congregation? And why do churches hide the preacher's salary in the budget? Why do they not make it public? People see these megachurch preachers with their ginormous houses, private jets, owning their own jet, the fancy cars they drive and completely turned off from the gospel because of their extravagant lifestyle. Paul says he doesn't get paid for preaching the gospel, however, he was supported at times by some of the churches he started. They would send a monetary gift to him even though he never asked for it. So yes, preachers should get paid, but the question becomes “How much?”

Silver didn't hit $121 because people suddenly wanted more silverware. It exploded because the market is starting to recognize silver for what it really isToday's Stocks & Topics: First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), Market Wrap, Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU), Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), Silver Is Now a Monetary Metal. The $12, Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ), Gold, Fundamental Analysis, 457 Retirement Plan. Our Next Wealth Webinar: “Beyond the Yield: How to Invest for Your Income Needs” June 30th, 2026 - 12:00 pmTo sign up: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/5717793889555/WN_XuoDgMVwSv6wZXXurrZTLgOur Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TaskRabbit and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://taskrabbit.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

We sound the Rami alarm this week to check the health of the industry after a massive week of game announcements from Summer Game Fest! We go over the Nintendo Direct, pick out some games we're excited about go into the history of 1666: Amsterdam. With the extreme slate of new games on the horizon comes news of Microsoft looking to downsize and possibly sell off the XBOX brand and what that means for everyone else. Then for a little bonus discussion Rami goes into more detail from the development of his own game "Australia Did It!" Games this week: The 7th Guest remake, Path of Exile 2, 007 First Light, Gambonaza and more! 0:00 - Intro1:00 - Dog owners3:50 - Beach vacation4:30 - Rami is here13:30 - The Nintendo Direct21:50 - Fable25:20 - Apples34:00 - Rami on SGF36:00 - Guild Wars 339:05 - gen Alpha45:30 - 1666: Amsterdam50:00 - SGF wrap-up1:10:00 - Competing 1:21:40 - The AI discussion1:26:05 - Microsoft ready to chop up XBOX1:59:00 - Monetary systems2:11:10 - Final Fantasy VII Remake director on streaming2:21:00 - Capcom moving away from auteur development2:28:10 - The 7th Guest remake2:31:50 - Path of Exile 22:33:20 - Gothic 1 remake2:34:50 - 007 First Light2:46:40 - Gambonanza2:48:50 - Joining the end of Destiny 22:58:20 - Shoutouts3:02:00 - BONUS: Australia Did ItSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

RJ Talyor is the Founder and CEO of Backstroke a AI for eCommerce generative content platform for email marketers. Instantly create on-brand, high-performing email subject lines, preview text, mobile push notifications, and SMS messages.Summary of PodcastPodcast introduction and guest backgroundGraham and Kevin introduce the Next 100 Days Podcast and welcome RJ Talyor from Indianapolis. RJ describes Indianapolis as offering the best of a big city with a small-city feel, with about a million people, great sports, culture, food, and good cost of living. He has traveled extensively but always enjoys returning home.Backstroke's AI email generation platformRJ introduces Backstroke.com, which generates performant email campaigns for e-commerce retailers selling clothes, pet food, furniture, and other products online and in-store. E-commerce brands typically expect 20-50% of revenue from email marketing while sending 3-5+ emails weekly, with customers spending 8-12 hours per campaign. Backstroke reduces this to approximately 15 minutes while personalising content so each customer receives a different message tailored to their interests and behaviour.Personalisation through data and engagement Backstroke personalises emails using multiple data layers: subscriber status, past engagement (opens, clicks, conversions), and appended third-party data revealing demographics like age, location, and gender. When additional data is unavailable, the platform uses progressive profiling—analysing engagement patterns to infer preferences. For example, if a customer consistently clicks on men's content over women's content, or prefers dark-coloured shirts over light ones, AI identifies these patterns to drive personalisation, which is more effective than manual analysis.Real-world personalisation: from negative to advocateGraham shares a personal story about Son of a Tailor, a Portuguese apparel brand, where his initial experience was poor—they sent him a shirt too short for his frame. However, the company responded exceptionally well, ultimately creating a monogrammed, high-quality shirt that transformed him into an advocate. RJ explains this is valuable data: AI can flag customers who experienced negative-to-positive journeys as potential super-fans or loyalty advocates, a pattern most marketers miss because they lack time to identify such nuanced customer experiences.AI pattern recognition beyond traditional metricsTraditional RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) models reduce customers to transactional data, but AI can extract signal from unstructured data to identify complex patterns. For instance, AI can recognize when a customer buys different sizes (suggesting purchases for others) or when multiple preferences exist within one account—like RJ's Spotify feed where his children's music preferences mix with his own. AI discerns these overlapping patterns that aren't immediately obvious to humans, enabling more sophisticated segmentation.Team expertise and company historyRJ co-founded Backstroke with his wife Allison, who holds a PhD in deep data analysis and chemical reagents, bringing statistical rigour and predictive modelling expertise. RJ's background includes starting Pattern89 in 2016, an AI company predicting Instagram and Facebook clicks using computer vision and natural language processing, which he sold to Shutterstock. Many Pattern89 team members joined Backstroke, bringing 10 years of AI-based marketing experience, while the team continuously innovates with new foundational models from Anthropic and OpenAI.Implementation results and Surge featureBackstroke achieves an average 30% uplift in conversion rates for new clients. Implementation typically takes about a month for full transformation, but recognising customer demand for faster results, the company launched "Surge," enabling campaigns to launch in 48 hours. This rapid-deployment feature demonstrates predictive capabilities quickly, satisfying customers who want immediate proof before committing to full onboarding.Email variants and human approval at scaleWhile technically capable of generating 10,000+ unique email variants, Backstroke has found that customers require human review of every variant version. Current implementations range from 60-100 variants, with combinations of hero images, subject lines, and templates creating exponential possibilities. The company is building QA agents to enable scaling to millions of variants while maintaining human oversight, recognizing that creative teams ultimately bear responsibility for brand representation.Brand guidelines versus performance metricsA fundamental tension exists between brand teams (who enforce guidelines like "models must face forward" or "only use this colour") and performance marketers (who know "shirts perform better laid on a bed than on a human"). RJ explains this is often gut-feel decision-making based on outdated tests—teams cite tests from a year ago by employees who've since left, creating stale guidelines. AI enables rapid testing of creative variations to identify incremental opportunities, but requires organisational willingness to experiment beyond established brand rules.Customer selection philosophyRather than trying to convince resistant customers to embrace AI, RJ focuses on the "one in 10" truly innovative marketers willing to change. He learned from his previous business that most prospects claim interest but quickly reveal organizational barriers requiring approvals. His strategy is to identify customers genuinely committed to transformation and willing to pay, directing others to resources instead. This approach conserves energy for high-potential partnerships where AI can deliver real impact.Backstroke's core value propositionBackstroke solves the "what" problem: what content, subject line, preview, template, hero image, product display, and offer to send to each person. The platform knows that 46% of clicks occur in the first 400 pixels, so it optimizes that space differently for men versus women, loyal customers versus new ones, and geographic regions. This focused specialization on content optimization is Backstroke's primary value, distinct from solving "when" (send time) or "who" (segmentation) problems.Practical tips for email marketersFor marketers using standard LLMs without specialised platforms, RJ recommends uploading all previous email data and creative assets, then asking the machine to identify winning creative dimensions. This approach reveals patterns in subject lines, imagery, copy length, and offers without requiring subscriber-level analysis, enabling better-than-average results for those without access to specialised tools.Email frequency paradox and engagementKevin raises frustration with receiving excessive emails from companies he likes, asking if AI can enable sending less email while achieving better results. RJ explains that higher engagement with personalised content could theoretically reduce frequency, but email is fundamentally a frequency game—brands send multiple emails weekly to stay top-of-inbox when customers are ready to buy. However, deliverability depends on engagement (opens, clicks), so sending irrelevant content backfires. Backstroke solves the "what" problem, but send-time optimisation and segmentation (the "when" and "who") remain separate challenges.Market focus and customer examples Backstroke focuses exclusively on B2C e-commerce in North America due to language complexity and GDPR privacy requirements in Europe. The platform serves impulse-purchase categories (apparel, furniture, bedding) differently than considered purchases (mattresses, cars), with separate trained models for each. Notable customers include Third Love (women's intimates), Cozy Earth (bedding), Helix (mattresses), and Emile Henry (cookware), representing the apparel and home goods verticals where Backstroke has developed deep expertise.Future roadmap: predictive marketing agentsRJ's 18-month roadmap focuses on building predictive marketing agents that complete marketing tasks generatively while humans serve as brand stewards and strategists. This vision extends beyond email to SMS, apps, and landing pages, with personalisation as a core feature. Graham notes the challenge of making such systems intuitive enough for non-technical users, reflecting the broader industry shift toward AI-augmented rather than AI-replaced marketing roles.European expansion and compliance strategyWhile Backstroke is currently North America-focused, RJ is open to European partnerships but wants to be proactive about compliance. GDPR itself isn't a blocker, but European customers require security documentation and certifications that Backstroke hasn't yet obtained. The company recently achieved SOC 2 compliance (required by enterprise businesses) and plans to secure necessary privacy certifications before entering European markets, avoiding disqualification during sales cycles.Podcast analysis and key takeawaysIn the wrap-up, RJ praises the podcast for getting past fluff into real marketing challenges, appreciating the nitty-gritty discussion of how marketers actually work. Graham and Kevin reflect that the conversation revealed AI's potential to solve the "what" problem while highlighting remaining challenges in "when" and "who" decisions. They note that Kevin's observation about sending less email...

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 June 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260611~372040d313.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260611~5b4603b5aa.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

MSE host Bill Powers interviews gold-stock fund manager Larry Lepard of Equity Management Associates (ema2.com) about the sharp junior-miner selloff, which he attributes to a strong jobs report and renewed rate-hike fears, and why he still expects higher gold and silver prices amid unavoidable monetary debasement. Lepard compares today's environment to 1970s-style inflation waves, argues new Fed chair Kevin Warsh may be more dovish than expected, and says a future monetary reset could drive gold toward $10,000/oz+ and silver far higher, boosting silver equities. He outlines his preferred “sweet spot” of emerging, growing producers, discusses jurisdiction risks, portfolio management and profit-taking, and shares favorite stock picks. 00:00 Intro 00:17 Market Selloff 02:19 Inflation Waves and Fed Outlook 03:22 Monetary Reset and Metal Targets 04:26 Warsh Pivot and Rate Cuts 06:52 Fund Flows and Commodity Shift 09:26 Where Value Hides in Miners 14:18 Favorite Producers and Jurisdictions 17:27 Silver Price Upside and Taking Profits 20:44 Avino Silver 12-Bagger 21:47 Volatility and Taking Profits 23:08 When Mining Bets Fail 24:41 Refining the Investing Process 26:05 Tokenized Equities Debate 27:02 Monetary Debasement Thesis 29:36 Favorite Gold & Silver Stocks 33:27 How to Follow Larry Larry's contact info and Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard Larry's Newsletter Sign-up: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT Larry's Quarterly Fund Letter: https://ema2.com/quarterly-reports/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Every day, billions of transactions settle between strangers who have no idea which bank the other uses. That lack of friction is not automatic. Nine-tenths of the money in daily circulation has been created by commercial banks, but it stays trustworthy only because central banks stand behind it, and keep the system in balance.In this week's episode Tim Phillips talks to Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University, CEPR) about what happens when new forms of digital money test that architecture. Cecchetti is one of the authors of the eighth Barcelona Report in The Future of Banking series, part of the Banking Initiative at IESE Business School, just published by CEPR as a free download.Will retail central bank digital currencies, tokenised deposits, and stablecoins upset the delicate balance of system that has been running for decades? Stablecoins, for example, do not create money, but they claim the status of money without the institutional guarantee that makes money trustworthy. Three jurisdictions — the US, the EU, and the UK — are each resolving the same underlying contradiction in different ways. None has fully resolved it.The research behind this episode:Niepelt, Dirk, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Hélène Rey, and Xavier Vives. 2026. Digital Money: The Future of Banking 8. London: CEPR Press. Available as a free download from CEPR.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Stephen G. Cecchetti. 2026. “The digital money supply.” VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestStephen Cecchetti is the Rosen Family Chair in International Finance at Brandeis University, a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and a Research Associate at the NBER. He was previously Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His research spanning monetary policy, financial stability, and banking regulation has shaped both academic and policy debate over three decades. He blogs at moneyandbanking.com.Research cited in this episodeWalter Bagehot's lender of last resort doctrine. In Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (1873), Bagehot argued that a central bank under stress should lend freely against good collateral at a penalty rate. The prescription remains the intellectual foundation for how central banks manage runs and systemic crises. Cecchetti invokes it to make the point that no private substitute for a central bank backstop has ever proved durable, and that the doctrine is now, one hundred and fifty years on, being tested by instruments its author could not have imagined.Monetary uniformity, mobility, and elasticity. The three institutional conditions underpinning general acceptance of money, developed in analysis by the Bank for International Settlements and discussed extensively in the report. Uniformity means a pound is a pound regardless of which bank holds it. Mobility means claims move between users and institutions at low cost and settle with finality. Elasticity means the supply of money can expand when it is under stress. Together they explain why we accept a deposit at face value without doing any analysis of the bank that issued it; and together they identify exactly where new forms of digital money create institutional gaps.Silicon Valley Bank failure, March 2023. SVB's collapse illustrates both the lender of last resort functioning and the limits of no-bailout commitments. Cecchetti notes that SVB's liabilities were still trading at par on the Thursday before its Friday failure because the Federal Reserve stood behind them. He also notes that Circle, the issuer of USDC, held $3.3 billion of its reserves at SVB and was effectively bailed out in the resolution. The episode is one of two occasions in the past twenty years where money market fund-like instruments have been backstopped by the Federal Reserve under stress.Genius Act (United States). Principle-based stablecoin regulation expected to come into effect in the US around 2027. Under its provisions, only stablecoins issued by bank-affiliated issuers will have access to the Federal Reserve; only those will therefore have the institutional backing needed to function as money. Stablecoins issued by non-bank entities will not.Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA), European Union. The EU framework for crypto assets, which entered into force in 2024. For stablecoins, MiCA requires issuers to hold 30 to 60% of their reserves in bank deposits, with no provision for central bank backing. The stated rationale is to keep deposits within the banking system; Cecchetti notes this creates a different category of vulnerability and leaves the question of what happens under stress unresolved.Bank of England stablecoin proposal (United Kingdom). The Bank of England's approach differs from both US and EU frameworks by explicitly requiring large stablecoin issuers to hold significant reserve deposits at the Bank of England, making them in effect narrow banks with a direct central bank backstop. Cecchetti regards this as the most coherent of the three approaches in terms of institutional logic, though the same fundamental question applies: whether holding to that design under stress would be politically sustainable.Tether and the jurisdictional challenge. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, is registered in El Salvador having previously operated out of the British Virgin Islands. Its tokens are held by users in multiple countries, traded on exchanges in multiple jurisdictions, and backed by US Treasury securities. Cecchetti uses this to illustrate why local regulation, however well-designed, is necessary but not sufficient; effective oversight of instruments that are genuinely global requires international standards and coordination.Fractional reserve banking and the goldsmith model. The institutional structure described in the episode has roots in mid-seventeenth century England, when goldsmiths began issuing more paper receipts than they had gold in their vaults. The goldsmiths became bankers; the paper became money; the vulnerability to runs became a structural feature of private money creation that persists today. Cecchetti uses the history to make the point that while technology changes how we store and transmit information, the underlying architecture of trust in private money is as old as Newtonian physics.More VoxTalks Economics episodesMaking banking safe, Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz. Our financial system is supposed to be more resilient than before the global financial crisis, but that didn't save Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank or First Republic. So what went wrong?Related reading on VoxEUNew coins on the block: Digital currencies and the financial system. The authors of the Barcelona Report warn that “Digital money will be reliable only where sound institutions and robust technology come together.”

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG and co-author of the In Gold We Trust report, joins Wealthion's Trey Reik to explain why gold's rally may be about much more than a normal bull market.Stoeferle argues that gold is signaling a deeper loss of trust in the dollar-based monetary system, as de-dollarization, inflation volatility, central bank buying, and rising geopolitical risk reshape the global financial order. He also explains why gold may be entering the public participation phase of its bull market — with institutional investors only beginning to wake up to the role gold can play in portfolios.In this conversation, Ronnie and Trey discuss whether the Pax Americana is coming to a close, why fiat currencies look different when measured in gold, whether this is a monetary revaluation rather than a normal gold cycle, and what the In Gold We Trust report reveals about the future of money.

Monetary historian Brendan Greeley explains why the dollar's power has nothing to do with the Fed, why crypto is just a bank in disguise, and why politicising the dollar might be the fastest way to end its reign as the world's reserve currency. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At the beginning of this year Bulgaria, considered as one of the poorest countries in the European Union, became the latest to officially join the eurozone. Bulgaria's legal tender since 1881 had been the lev, but since the mid-1990s it had been pegged to other European currencies, first to the German deutschmark and now to the euro. But it remains to be seen if the country's economic policy can take advantage of the opportunities that joining the single currency can afford, in terms of trade and economic development. Monetary unions are not a new concept, some like the Scandinavian monetary union date back to the 19th Century, involving Denmark, Sweden and Norway. It established a fixed exchange rate system based on the gold standard, whilst member countries still had their own currencies before it was gradually dissolved from the outbreak of World War One onwards. Today, the biggest monetary union is the eurozone, used by around 358 million people across 21 European Union countries. It has one monetary authority for all the members and a standardised currency and coinage. And now the Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS is actively planning a monetary union with a common currency called the eco and pegged to the euro. The ambition is for greater economic sovereignty and regional economic integration. But with the US dollar as the world's dominant global reserve currency, even though it's not part of a global monetary union, is there an argument for one currency across all borders and if so, what should it be? So, on The Inquiry this week we're asking, ‘What's the future for monetary unions?'Contributors: Assoc Prof Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, Bulgaria Prof Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA Prof Mohamed Ben Omar Ndiaye, Cheikh Anta Diop University, Senegal Dr Judy Shelton, Senior Fellow, The Independent Institute, California, USAPresenter: Charmaine Cozier Producers: Daniel Rosney and Jill Collins Researcher: Evie Yabsley Editor: Tom Bigwood Technical producer: Toby James Production management: Phoebe Lomas and Liam Morrey(Photo: Euro and US dollar banknotes. Credit: BBC/Corbis Royalty Free)

15th lecture of Principles of Economics explores monetary expansion as the issuance of credit unbacked by savings, how it distorts interest rates and misallocates capital, why this generates the business cycle, Mises' money typology & how central banks are central planners of capital markets.Get all course notes and slides on https://saifedean.com/poecourse

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran's demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July. This supply crunch, he argues, makes a global recession nearly certain by year-end, deepening significantly in the following year. The conversation shifts to China's strategic positioning. Hunt notes that China anticipated American geopolitical moves and has diversified its energy sources through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside massive domestic coal and renewable capacity. This allows China to withstand the Hormuz closure indefinitely, unlike Western nations. The discussion then turns to the evolving global monetary order, where Hunt describes a BRICS-led effort to create a multipolar system anchored in physical gold. He details China's construction of Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, enabling trade settlement in non-G7 currencies convertible to gold. While he sees gold prices reaching double-digit thousands in five years, he cautions that America is unlikely to revalue its gold reserves and warns of potential government confiscation during crises. On commodities, Hunt challenges the prevailing supercycle narrative, calling it premature. He predicts that a deep recession will cause physical demand to collapse, outweighing current supply constraints. He specifically highlights copper, noting that NVIDIA's shift to photonics could eliminate copper from data centers by 2028, undermining a key demand thesis. Strategic stockpiling of critical minerals by governments will eventually follow, but processing capacity remains a bottleneck controlled by China. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:00 – Middle East Conflict Origins 00:03:46 – New Gulf Security Architecture 00:06:05 – Oil Supply Disruption Impacts 00:08:06 – Straits of Hormuz Reopening 00:08:37 – China Trump Trade Dynamics 00:12:25 – Oil Prices Futures Disparity 00:14:14 – Fertilizer and Food Crisis 00:16:10 – BRICS Monetary System Shift 00:22:51 – Bond Yields and Instability 00:25:02 – Recession Outlook and Assets 00:30:40 – Commodity Supercycle Analysis 00:33:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com Website: https://simon-hunt.com/ Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook. Simon established this company in January 1996.

Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight walk through what's coming after the Iran war shockwave — and Arterburn's assessment is that most of the pain hasn't arrived yet. Turkey and India are already feeling it: Turkey selling central bank gold reserves, India trying to discourage citizens from buying gold while silver premiums inside the country have skyrocketed due to import backlogs. With global central banks facing an estimated $50 trillion printing requirement just to cover debt service, and the Fed's new chair brought in specifically to cut rates regardless of inflation, Arterburn argues the monetary system is being deliberately transitioned — not reformed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight walk through what's coming after the Iran war shockwave — and Arterburn's assessment is that most of the pain hasn't arrived yet. Turkey and India are already feeling it: Turkey selling central bank gold reserves, India trying to discourage citizens from buying gold while silver premiums inside the country have skyrocketed due to import backlogs. With global central banks facing an estimated $50 trillion printing requirement just to cover debt service, and the Fed's new chair brought in specifically to cut rates regardless of inflation, Arterburn argues the monetary system is being deliberately transitioned — not reformed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

Nicholas Anthony (Research Fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives) joins Host Ron Steslow to examine how the stablecoin legislation moving through Congress is quietly remaking the financial system and expanding the surveillance state in the process. They dig into the Bank Secrecy Act and the third-party doctrine, the legal architecture that lets the government access Americans' financial records without a warrant. Next, they examine how AI is turning mass financial surveillance from aspiration into operational reality, and how political designations can be weaponized against ordinary Americans through their banks. Then they unpack the contradictions in the Trump administration's posture—anti-CBDC in name, enthusiastically pro-stablecoin in practice—and why programmable private money is functionally a central bank digital currency at arm's length. Finally, they discuss the prosecutions of open-source developers behind privacy tools like Tornado Cash and Samurai Wallet, and what's at stake if the precedent that code is protected speech gets tested in the Supreme Court. In Politicology+, they unpack a 2021 federal mandate that will require every new car sold in America to passively monitor its driver for "impairment" by next year. POLITICOLOGY+ Not yet a Politicology+ member? Don't miss all the extra episodes on the private, ad-free version of this podcast. Upgrade now at politicology.com/plus. CONTRIBUTE TO POLITICOLOGY politicology.com/donate SPONSORS & PROMO CODES https://bit.ly/44uAGZ8 Send your questions and ideas to podcast@politicology.com or leave a voicemail at ‪(703) 239-3068‬ Follow this week's panel on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/RonSteslow https://x.com/EconWithNick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Preview for Later: HEADLINE: Kevin Warsh's Vision for a Narrower Federal Reserve GUEST: Liz PeekSUMMARY: Peek discusses nominee Kevin Warsh's plan to return the Fed to a narrow mandate focused on monetary stability. Warsh aims to reduce social policy involvement and decrease the Fed's day-to-day market influence.1914 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss Bitcoin's power law price dynamics, the accelerating "treadmill" of traditional markets, escalating geopolitical chaos including Russia's digital authoritarianism and America's shifting foreign policy, and the mathematical tension between Bitcoin's decelerating growth and Wall Street's attempt to subsume it into exponential fiat systems. Matthew on Twitter: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/