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Thoughts on the Market
Jackson Hole Tests the Fed's Framework

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2026 12:08


Investors are keeping a close eye on Jackson Hole for signals on the economic outlook and the path for rates. Our Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen joins Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach to discuss whether markets get what they want—or what the Fed needs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today, we'll be discussing the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and Chairman Warsh's opening remarks. It's Thursday, August 27th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, let's get right into it and talk about the upcoming opening remarks by Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that will be delivered to the public at 10 am tomorrow, Friday. How are you thinking about what to expect from those opening remarks? Michael Gapen: Well, historically, and by historically, I mean in a post-2008-2009 world, Jackson Hole has been used, not every year, but frequently as a venue to communicate to markets. The longest gap on the Fed's meeting calendar is between the July and September meetings. So, Jackson Hole falls between that and provides a useful opportunity to communicate what might be coming. That's what's normally been done. Warsh has repeatedly stated he wants the Fed to talk less and communicate less and say less. So, I don't think we will see or hear, in this case, a lot about his views about how the economy is operating today and how monetary policy may be conducted into year-end. So, I don't think we'll hear a lot about, say, the December; the outlook for the economy from September to December, and what it might imply for interest rate policy or balance sheet policy. So, little in the way of near-term forward guidance. I do think, however, he did say in the July press conference that the venue would be good to tackle some of these big questions that he has talked about, that he's created these task forces for. So, whether it is the balance sheet or the inflation framework, or communication or AI and productivity or data quality and so forth. This would provide, I think, a reasonable opportunity for him to start talking about that. I don't think maybe we'll get a lot of conclusions. But I would look for commentary that's more in the question; or in the spirit of those big questions and less about the near-term conduct of policy.So maybe not what markets want, but this is what markets will get. Matt Hornbach: Just rewinding a bit, the conference itself is on a somewhat of a niche topic. What exactly is the conference about? And, in terms of the papers that get released at the conference, do you have any sense as to where they might be headed? Michael Gapen: So, the topic of this conference, the economic symposium, as you noted, is Financial Innovation: [its] Implications for [the] Payments [system] and [monetary] Policy. So, I would expect there to be a lot of sessions for things like central bank digital currencies or stable coins or Bitcoins. Near money type innovation that has happened in recent years, which leads to things like competition for deposits from the non-financial sector vis-a-vis the financial sector. So, a competition of near moneyness to money, if you will. Its implications for the interaction between the non-financial system and the financial system, competition for deposits. Does it create risks around financial disintermediation? And therefore, how might the regulatory environment and monetary policy work in that world? So little more, I'll call it, esoteric and maybe arm's length from the day-to-day conduct of policy. But I would look at the speeches probably in that vein. Deposit competition, financial market stability, and what kind of regulatory framework might you need to ensure we can still conduct policy effectively in that world. Matt Hornbach: Sounds like an exciting set of papers… Michael Gapen: Yes. Yes. Matt Hornbach: … for professors to read through. Michael Gapen: This is why they don't often leak the schedule too far in advance, right? We all might decide not to listen. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Well, it is the end of August, and people are probably still on holiday here and there… Michael Gapen: I'm doing my best, but you called me in today. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, the least I could do. So, you did mention that this might be an opportunity for Chairman Warsh to maybe spotlight a bit these task forces and the topics that they're tackling, one of which is the inflation framework. And that word framework, I think, is important because the investors that we've been speaking with are frustrated that the Fed has not really laid out a framework – for monetary policymaking in this new era of Chairman Warsh, and his leadership at the Fed. So, I'm curious, if we're not going to get forward guidance on monetary policy and what will happen at the next meeting. And we're also not going to get much forward guidance on the framework that the Fed is using to decide on what to do with short-term interest rates. What are we meant to think about the framework? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think ultimately, of course, we're going to need to know this, and this is what economists would refer to as the ‘difference between forward guidance and the "reaction function." So, the framework is really, you've got a set of tools, how do you intend to use them to achieve your objectives? A conventional Fed would say, "Well, if interest rates are low and inflation's too high, then we should raise rates," right? So high inflation brings high interest rates, low inflation brings low interest rates. All else equal, there's still the employment side of the mandate, of course. And the market had that view, at least initially, right? As we were in the June-July period and Warsh was talking hawkishly, the curve generally flattened. Expectations for front-end yields moved higher, and inflation-fighting credibility maybe kept the back end stable or brought the back end down. So, you could argue the markets looked at Warsh as maybe bringing a conventional reaction function and a conventional framework. But in the June and July FOMC meeting and in conversations with the press during the press conferences, Warsh – I don't want to say backtracked. He just didn't validate that and did say that we will achieve price stability. Didn't quite say how he would use the tools to do that. And even suggested maybe interest rates weren't the primary mechanism with which to influence, create, deliver price stability. So, the curve then steepened out. So, I think the market is wondering what Fed chair we have and what his reaction function is? And if inflation's running hot, is it an interest rate answer or is it a balance sheet answer? I'd also just add one last thing, Matt, is it makes a difference what the rest of the 18 people on the FOMC think. [Be]cause I think you would agree, and I'll put forward right now, I think they have a largely conventional view. Half of the committee thought it was time to raise rates in June. So, we have a balance between not knowing the chair's framework and having to intuit it. Or hope that we hear more. But then also knowing the other 18 who could band together and have greater voting power act in a largely conventional framework. I think that's the debate and the dilemma that we're all dealing with. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, I think investors, have certainly expressed frustration about the lack of guidance in any form or fashion. Perhaps with the exception of the balance sheet; we have a general idea that the balance sheet will be smaller in the future. And we have a sense from what Chairman Warsh has said in front of the House of Representatives during his semi-annual testimony that any changes would happen gradually over time. But, in terms of the pricing of the July meeting, and what happened at the July meeting, investors were very disappointed that the Fed did not go ahead and raise rates in July. Now, the market was only assigning about a one in three odds of a rate hike in July. And so, the fact that the Fed did not go ahead and raise interest rates in July was not a surprise in the sense of market pricing. But I do sense that investors were frustrated; that because they didn't get much forward guidance going into the July meeting, that the market might not have priced more probability on a July rate hike because the Fed, in fact, did not signal that they were leaning in that direction. But I see it as somewhat ironic because it seems to me, and I'd like to get your view on this. It seems to me that Chairman Warsh doesn't want to provide that type of specificity. He'd rather have the markets tell him what to do at an upcoming meeting, as opposed to him telling markets what to do at an upcoming meeting. How do you think about that? Michael Gapen: Oh, I think it's… [It] strains credibility to think that by saying nothing, you get the market's interpretation of the economy, data, and events – without the market thinking what the Fed thinks about it. I don't think that there's a world where you get the unvarnished market expectation independent of the Fed. So, I don't personally agree in the analogy of the market should play the ball and not the referee. The Fed is not a referee in markets. The Fed is a player in markets. Monetary policy acts through financial markets to achieve a set of financial conditions to deliver price stability and maximum employment. So, the Fed and markets are on the field at the same time. The Fed, in some ways, is the 800-pound gorilla on the field at the same time. So, everybody else on the field has to know what the gorilla is doing in order to do what they're supposed to do. Yes, there's always some circularity between Fed communication and market reaction to that. But I think that's natural and normal and important in making monetary policy effective – meaning it has to transmit through financial markets. And so, you could diminish the effectiveness of monetary policy if you don't tell the market what, at least what your framework is and what your reaction function is. And the tools that you intend to use and how you would intend to use them. Then the market could be an inefficient transmitter of monetary policy. So, I disagree with the notion that by saying less, the Fed learns more. But that's my view. I'm one of many. That's my opinion. The chair obviously has a different view. Matt Hornbach: Well, I can certainly understand not wanting to be the referee, especially after what we saw at the World Cup. There were a couple of games where the referee… Michael Gapen: And nobody likes the referee. At least half the people are upset with the referee. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Okay. So, Mike, I think we're going to leave it there. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Black Box
The great monetary reset live a The Last Question [ENG]

Black Box

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2026 31:32


Oggi Tether detiene più titoli di Stato statunitensi di molti Paesi sovrani. Bitcoin sta sfidando l'oro come riserva di valore, mentre le stablecoin stanno diventando l'infrastruttura portante dell'economia digitale. Stiamo assistendo a un rafforzamento del sistema del dollaro o all'inizio di un mondo post-dollaro? Questo episodio è stato registrato live a The Last Question, a Roma, l'1 e il 2 luglio 2026. Iscriviti a Black Box Script, la nuova newsletter di Black Box: ⁠https://blackboxchora.substack.com/ Scopri i corsi della New Media Academy, la scuola di podcasting e digital journalism di Chora e Will: https://newmediacademy.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Alpha Exchange
Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

Alpha Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2026 49:02


The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report is a twice yearly, must read. Leading the excellent research done here is Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. It was a pleasure to welcome Tobias to the podcast to explore the IMF's financial stability framework, vulnerabilities in global markets, and the evolving risks shaping the financial system. We begin with Tobias' role and the evolution of the GFSR, which combines market intelligence, analytical research, and a framework for assessing financial vulnerabilities. He explains how the report has shifted alongside the macro backdrop, from an environment defined by low inflation and negative-yielding debt to one characterized by higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty. A central theme throughout the conversation is the distinction between forecasting shocks and identifying vulnerabilities. Tobias describes how the IMF focuses on leverage, maturity transformation, valuation, currency mismatches, and interconnectedness rather than attempting to predict the next catalyst. The discussion explores how these vulnerabilities can amplify the effects of unexpected shocks across financial markets. We then turn to several themes from the most recent GFSR. Tobias discusses artificial intelligence as both a driver of investment and productivity while examining the financial linkages, capital spending, and interconnectedness developing across the AI ecosystem. He also outlines the IMF's assessment of sovereign debt, rising term premiums, and the growing role of non-bank financial institutions in financing global markets. The latter part of the discussion focuses on market plumbing, including leverage in hedge funds, Treasury basis trades, derivatives markets, and the challenges of monitoring system-wide positioning. Tobias explains how liquidity, options markets, and quantitative strategies can contribute to vulnerabilities that become apparent during periods of market stress. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Tobias Adrian.

director ai treasury imf monetary capital markets global financial stability report
Toronto Centre Podcasts
Ep. 188: Open Finance Oversight and Supervision

Toronto Centre Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2026 41:32


Cyber and Operational Risk in the Quantum Era: Financial Stability amid Escalating Geopolitical ConflictThis panel took place at the 2026 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings.Financial stability is under fire as geopolitics and cyber risk collide. As global tensions intensify and technological capabilities accelerate, financial institutions face a rapidly evolving threat landscape where cyber operations, financial crime, and state-sponsored actors are increasingly intertwined. From ransomware campaigns and sanctions evasion to sophisticated cyber intrusions targeting critical infrastructure, adversaries are exploiting digital systems and global financial networks in new and complex ways.As these threats continue to evolve, the quantum horizon introduces an additional layer of strategic risk. This executive panel will examine how advances in quantum computing could reshape cyber and operational risk across the financial sector, while also considering the growing convergence between cyber-enabled crime, ransomware payments, sanctions evasion, and global illicit finance networks. Leaders from policy, finance, and technology will explore the implications of quantum-enabled decryption, the expanding links between cyber threats and illicit finance, and the operational vulnerabilities that could undermine confidence in critical financial infrastructure.The discussion focused on how institutions and regulators can strengthen resilience, enhance cross-border coordination, and prepare for a future in which emerging technologies, cyber conflict, ransomware, and financial crime increasingly intersect. The panel explored what these developments mean for international efforts to combat cyber-enabled financial crime and how global standards bodies, national authorities, and financial institutions can strengthen cooperation to protect the integrity and resilience of the international financial system.Opening Remarks:Cindy Termorshuizen, Deputy Minister of International Development, Government of CanadaPanelists:Giles Thomson, Director, Economic Crime and Sanctions, His Majesty's Treasury; Incoming President, FATFStefan Ingves, Chair, Toronto Centre; Former Governor, Sveriges RiksbankMichele Mosca, Professor, Institute for Quantum Computing, University of WaterlooModerator:Jennifer Elliott, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets, IMF; Board Member, Toronto CentreWatch the executive panel session here.Read the transcript here. Read their biographies here.

Baskin & Phelps
What is the monetary value of the Browns franchise?

Baskin & Phelps

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2026 15:28


Andy and Jeff wrap up their quarterback conversation and share their thoughts on the latest franchise valuations that have been published around the NFL.

Baskin & Phelps
Hour 2: Looking at the monetary value of NFL franchises + Headlines

Baskin & Phelps

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2026 40:40


Hour 2 of Baskin and Phelps

The Julia La Roche Show
#400 Michael Howell: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned, Low Quality Returns for Stocks, The Real Driver Behind Gold

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2026 42:52


Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to explain why the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3/early Q4 of last year — and what that means for the rest of 2026. His core argument: money is fungible but finite, and a booming real economy is now pulling liquidity out of financial assets, which compresses P/E multiples even as earnings look fine. That puts us in what he calls the speculation phase: rising bond yields, strong commodities, pressured crypto, and low-quality equity returns where index gains mask widespread underperformance. He also pushes back hard on the popular "debasement trade" explanation for gold, arguing the real driver is the People's Bank of China injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while holding it steady externally — with Chinese retail locked out of crypto and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the marginal price. On the bond side, he lays out how the Treasury is quietly monetizing through front-end issuance and buybacks — private-sector QE under Treasury direction — a strategy that works until it doesn't, with Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3% as the cautionary tale. His bottom line: range-bound Wall Street, no bonds, gold and silver on weakness, and watch commodities for the first sign the boom is ending.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 The call: range-bound market, own gold0:20 Welcome back, Michael Howell1:19 Two pools of money: markets vs. the real economy2:30 The liquidity cycle has peaked3:20 What this phase looks like4:48 Why a booming economy is bad for stocks5:22 The P/E multiple is where liquidity shows up6:34 Late cycle, explained7:38 Augusta Precious Metals9:29 Global liquidity vs. the world business cycle10:45 Atlanta Fed nowcast near 6%11:54 The K-shaped economy is global12:45 Monetary inflation vs. Main Street inflation14:45 Speculation now, turbulence next15:15 The cycle map17:55 Monetary Metals19:49 Gold: it isn't the debasement trade20:30 It's China: PBOC liquidity22:15 Why gold and not crypto23:14 Inside the PBOC balance sheet25:00 Yuan gold and the 27,000 line26:15 Bond yields track nominal GDP27:40 NGDP at 7-8% vs. a 4.7% ten-year28:18 Treasury QE: funding at the front end30:20 Who's actually buying the debt?30:51 The beach ball under water32:35 The two-year note leads the Fed34:30 The 2022 analogue36:00 Why MOVE matters more than VIX37:08 Treasury buybacks and the volatility cap38:30 Margin debt and the 2026 range call39:31 Parting thoughts: commodities as the warning40:30 Gold, silver, and the ratio to watch

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN
Felix Prehn - The FED Just Did the UNTHINKABLE (Global Monetary Reset Starts Now) + Stock Market News 04 August 2026 (Goat Academy)

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2026 24:53 Transcription Available


Sprott Gold Talk Radio
Back to The Monetary Future - Part 1

Sprott Gold Talk Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2026 35:09


Ed Coyne welcomes back Ronnie Stöferle to discuss the 20th anniversary edition of the In Gold We Trust report, Back to the Monetary Future. Ronnie reflects on two decades of gold's evolution as a monetary asset, central bank buying and the new thinking on gold's place in modern portfolios. The conversation also explores why gold's simplicity, liquidity and lack of counterparty risk may matter more than ever in an increasingly uncertain financial system.This podcast is provided for information purposes only from sources believed to be reliable. However, Sprott does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein.This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Sprott. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitute your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of Sprott.

Get Rich Slow Club
290. Why does the RBA keep changing rates? Here's the logic

Get Rich Slow Club

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2026 35:35


Everyone talks about inflation and interest rates, but far fewer people can explain how they're connected or why the RBA only really has one tool to work with. In part two of the four-part series, Ana and economist Evan Lucas get into what inflation actually is, why a bit of it is a good thing, and why the same rate rise can flatten a young family while barely touching someone who's already paid off their house.In this episode we'll discuss:

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN
Felix Prehn - The Global Monetary Reset Has Begun (Hint: Korea, Japan are Just the Start) + Stock Market News 02 August 2026 (Goat Academy)

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2026 21:27 Transcription Available


WSKY The Bob Rose Show
Fed crippling the economy?

WSKY The Bob Rose Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2026 36:53


Hour 2 of the Bob Rose Show, on the first Federal Reserve benchmark rate announcement under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Monetary policy, economic volitivity, and the impact on Main Street, plus all of Thursday morning's biggest stories for 7-30-26

Bitcoin Audible
Read_948 - The Battle for Monetary Independence

Bitcoin Audible

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2026 48:30


"Your savings represent hours you worked, risks you accepted, businesses you built, time spent away from people you love, and consumption you postponed for the sake of the future. When the monetary system allows others to dilute those savings without your consent, it weakens your claim on that future. Bitcoin offers a peaceful alternative, giving every individual access to property that cannot be created without limit, altered for political convenience, or administered according to a different set of rules for the powerful." "Two hundred and fifty years ago, Americans declared that they would no longer live as subjects. […] the best way to honor that inheritance is not merely to look backward and celebrate what they accomplished. It is to identify the unfinished work of freedom in our own time and do our part to advance it." ~ Cory Klippsten Today I'm reading Cory Klippsten's latest piece, The Battle for Monetary Independence. Cory uses his grandfather's World War II journal to show that real historical changes aren't won through sudden heroic events, but built on quiet, unglamorous, day-to-day work. Bull markets get the hype while bear markets do the actual heavy lifting. I share my thoughts on what true monetary freedom looks like and the few things that matter far more than waiting for Wall Street's permission. Check out the original article: The Battle for Monetary Independence by Cory Klippsten (Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/essay/the-battle-for-monetary-independence/) Host Links ⁠⁠Guy on Nostr ⁠(Link: http://tinyurl.com/2xc96ney) Guy on X ⁠(Link: https://twitter.com/theguyswann) Guy on Instagram (Link: https://www.instagram.com/theguyswann) Guy on TikTok (Link: https://www.tiktok.com/@theguyswann) Guy's Takes on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@GuysTake) Guy Swann on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann) Bitcoin Audible on X⁠ (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible) The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839) Check out our awesome partners! Become sovereign, hold your keys, be censorship resistant with the Bitbox hardware wallet. Get 5% off everything in the store with code GUY (Link: https://bitbox.swiss/guy) Get 10% off the best Bitcoin board game in the world, HODLUP! Or any of the other great games from The Free Market Kids! Use code GUY10 at checkout for 10% off your cart! (Link: https://www.freemarketkids.com/collections/games-1) "People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take." ~ Emma Goldman

Wilson County News
Donations invited for Blue Santa program

Wilson County News

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2026 1:16


It may be midsummer, but the Wilson County Sheriff's Office and Floresville Police Department are encouraging area residents and organizations to think of Christmas — specifically, their “Blue Santa” program. Blue Santa helps provide Christmas gifts for area families in need, for children in those households ages 12 and younger. A first-responder dodgeball tournament June 24 raised awareness for the program and invited attendees to donate gifts as the price of admission. Area residents can donate to the program any time, said sheriff's office Public Information Officer Deputy Skylar Dailey. New, unwrapped toys and games are welcome. Monetary donations to... Article Link

Toronto Centre Podcasts
Ep. 186: Policyholder Protection Schemes in a Climate-stressed World

Toronto Centre Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 35:02


Cyber and Operational Risk in the Quantum Era: Financial Stability amid Escalating Geopolitical ConflictThis panel took place at the 2026 International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings.Financial stability is under fire as geopolitics and cyber risk collide. As global tensions intensify and technological capabilities accelerate, financial institutions face a rapidly evolving threat landscape where cyber operations, financial crime, and state-sponsored actors are increasingly intertwined. From ransomware campaigns and sanctions evasion to sophisticated cyber intrusions targeting critical infrastructure, adversaries are exploiting digital systems and global financial networks in new and complex ways.As these threats continue to evolve, the quantum horizon introduces an additional layer of strategic risk. This executive panel will examine how advances in quantum computing could reshape cyber and operational risk across the financial sector, while also considering the growing convergence between cyber-enabled crime, ransomware payments, sanctions evasion, and global illicit finance networks. Leaders from policy, finance, and technology will explore the implications of quantum-enabled decryption, the expanding links between cyber threats and illicit finance, and the operational vulnerabilities that could undermine confidence in critical financial infrastructure.The discussion focused on how institutions and regulators can strengthen resilience, enhance cross-border coordination, and prepare for a future in which emerging technologies, cyber conflict, ransomware, and financial crime increasingly intersect. The panel explored what these developments mean for international efforts to combat cyber-enabled financial crime and how global standards bodies, national authorities, and financial institutions can strengthen cooperation to protect the integrity and resilience of the international financial system.Opening Remarks:Cindy Termorshuizen, Deputy Minister of International Development, Government of CanadaPanelists:Giles Thomson, Director, Economic Crime and Sanctions, His Majesty's Treasury; Incoming President, FATFStefan Ingves, Chair, Toronto Centre; Former Governor, Sveriges RiksbankMichele Mosca, Professor, Institute for Quantum Computing, University of WaterlooModerator:Jennifer Elliott, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets, IMF; Board Member, Toronto CentreWatch the executive panel session here.Read the transcript here. Read their biographies here.

Tales from the Crypt
#774: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Tales from the Crypt

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2026 103:57


Bitcoin analyst Matthew Mezinskis joins the show to defend the power law model against recent criticism, arguing the curve remains intact and Bitcoin is trading near historical lows relative to its trend. He breaks down why exponential models fail to capture Bitcoin's network growth, compares the power curve to stock-to-flow and Plan B projections, and examines global monetary base expansion, Fed balance sheet trends, and the intersection of Bitcoin's scalable growth with TradFi's volatile exponential debt. The discussion covers log periodic cycle analysis, generational buying levels, and what happens when Bitcoin's power trend collides with fiat's unsustainable compounding. Matthew on X: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ Find the Home Mining Playbook here: https://www.tftc.io/home-mining-energy-playbook STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Block: Cash App: For a limited time, new customers can get $21 added to their balance. Just use code TFTC10 when you sign up, and send at least $5 to a friend in the first two weeks. Terms apply. Bitcoin services by Block, Inc. See the Bitcoin disclosures at cash.app/legal/podcast. Square: Visit http://square.com/go/**tftc** for up to $200 off eligible Square hardware. Bitkey: Use code TFTC10 for 10% off the new Bitkey. Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/ Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc**!** #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 23 July 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 14:40


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 23 July 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260723~b6fadd48f4.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260723~ef801dc812.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB

Bitcoin for Millennials
There's a Monetary War Nobody Is Talking About | Bram Kanstein | BFM268

Bitcoin for Millennials

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 21:10


Bram Kanstein is a creative entrepreneur and the host of Bitcoin for Millennials, exploring Bitcoin not as a trade, but as essential savings technology and a rational opt-out from a failing fiat money system.› https://x.com/bramkPARTNERS

MoneywebNOW
[TOP STORY] AI Wave: CapEx could rewrite market rules

MoneywebNOW

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 6:58


‘Monetary policy for us is one of the bigger risks that we see at the moment' – Warren Buhai, senior portfolio manager at STANLIB Asset Management.

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN
Felix Prehn - The Global Monetary Reset Has Begun (Hint: Act Now!) + Stock Market News 03 July 2026 (Goat Academy)

DAILY MARKET NEWS WITH FELIX PREHN

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 4, 2026 26:43 Transcription Available


Swan Signal - A Bitcoin Podcast
OpenUSD, Bitcoin Cycles, and America's Monetary Future

Swan Signal - A Bitcoin Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2026 39:13


Brady and John kick off with World Cup excitement, celebrating Team USA's gritty performance and using the tournament as a metaphor for global monetary competition The discussion explores the emergence of OpenUSD (OUSD), a new stablecoin standard backed by more than 140 companies, and whether it represents meaningful decentralization or simply a private-sector version of a CBDC The hosts argue that despite branding around openness and neutrality, OUSD remains a centralized, censorable dollar token fundamentally different from Bitcoin John frames money as an ongoing global competition, suggesting that Bitcoin and fiat currencies are likely to coexist for many years due to the enormous network effects of existing monetary systems Alex Thorn's Bitcoin bottom indicators show several classic bear market signals triggering, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom while acknowledging this cycle differs in magnitude from prior ones The conversation examines the persistence of Bitcoin's four-year timing cycle, debating whether market participants' expectations could become self-fulfilling and drive renewed momentum later in the year Macro charts highlight continued expansion of the U.S. money supply and federal debt, reinforcing Bitcoin's long-term monetary thesis despite current market weakness The hosts discuss signs that speculative crypto venture capital is collapsing while AI attracts investment, arguing that 2025 may ultimately be remembered as the end of the crypto boom rather than Bitcoin itself Brady closes with a Fourth of July reflection, arguing that Bitcoin embodies the principles of individual liberty, property rights, and sound money that animated America's founding debates ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

The Rebbe’s advice
4193 – Monetary Prizes for Students as Encouragement, Not Scholarship – פרסים כספיים לתלמידים כהמרצה, לא מלגה

The Rebbe’s advice

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2026


The Rebbe writes that while awarding monetary prizes to students is not a common Jewish practice, he is not opposed to it if it serves as encouragement rather than a scholarship. He notes the importance of maintaining the sanctity of Torah study and wishes the recipient good health. https://www.torahrecordings.com/rebbe/igroskodesh/012/007/4193

Mises Media
Conant, Monetary Imperialism, and the Gold-Exchange Standard

Mises Media

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2026


The theory put into practice: imposing the gold-exchange standard on U.S. dependencies and client states—Puerto Rico, the Philippines, Mexico, and others—administered by a cadre of economists and academics and tying client currencies to the dollar.

Mises Media
The Beginnings of the “Reform” Movement: The Indianapolis Monetary Convention

Mises Media

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2026


The first organized big-business push for banking reform. Rothbard recounts how the 1896–97 Indianapolis Monetary Convention, backed by Morgan- and Rockefeller-tied elites, enlisted economists to press for the gold standard and a centralized, more “elastic” banking system.

A Responsum a Day
R. Moshe Feinstein on False Monetary Promises (8 Tammuz)

A Responsum a Day

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026


GRINDIT podcast
Episode 566: 1 Corinthians 9 Part 2 Should Preachers Get Paid?

GRINDIT podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 42:02


One of the biggest debates in churches today is, “Should preachers get paid?” and if they should, then how much? Where do you draw the line? Is he to make more than the average income of the congregation? And why do churches hide the preacher's salary in the budget? Why do they not make it public? People see these megachurch preachers with their ginormous houses, private jets, owning their own jet, the fancy cars they drive and completely turned off from the gospel because of their extravagant lifestyle. Paul says he doesn't get paid for preaching the gospel, however, he was supported at times by some of the churches he started. They would send a monetary gift to him even though he never asked for it. So yes, preachers should get paid, but the question becomes “How much?”

InvestTalk
Silver Is Now a Monetary Metal

InvestTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 42:50 Transcription Available


Silver didn't hit $121 because people suddenly wanted more silverware. It exploded because the market is starting to recognize silver for what it really isToday's Stocks & Topics: First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), Market Wrap, Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU), Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), Silver Is Now a Monetary Metal. The $12, Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ), Gold, Fundamental Analysis, 457 Retirement Plan. Our Next Wealth Webinar: “Beyond the Yield: How to Invest for Your Income Needs” June 30th, 2026 - 12:00 pmTo sign up: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/5717793889555/WN_XuoDgMVwSv6wZXXurrZTLgOur Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TaskRabbit and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://taskrabbit.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

DroppedFrames
Dropped Frames Episode 469

DroppedFrames

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2026 192:14


We sound the Rami alarm this week to check the health of the industry after a massive week of game announcements from Summer Game Fest! We go over the Nintendo Direct, pick out some games we're excited about go into the history of 1666: Amsterdam. With the extreme slate of new games on the horizon comes news of Microsoft looking to downsize and possibly sell off the XBOX brand and what that means for everyone else. Then for a little bonus discussion Rami goes into more detail from the development of his own game "Australia Did It!" Games this week: The 7th Guest remake, Path of Exile 2, 007 First Light, Gambonaza and more! 0:00 - Intro1:00 - Dog owners3:50 - Beach vacation4:30 - Rami is here13:30 - The Nintendo Direct21:50 - Fable25:20 - Apples34:00 - Rami on SGF36:00 - Guild Wars 339:05 - gen Alpha45:30 - 1666: Amsterdam50:00 - SGF wrap-up1:10:00 - Competing 1:21:40 - The AI discussion1:26:05 - Microsoft ready to chop up XBOX1:59:00 - Monetary systems2:11:10 - Final Fantasy VII Remake director on streaming2:21:00 - Capcom moving away from auteur development2:28:10 - The 7th Guest remake2:31:50 - Path of Exile 22:33:20 - Gothic 1 remake2:34:50 - 007 First Light2:46:40 - Gambonanza2:48:50 - Joining the end of Destiny 22:58:20 - Shoutouts3:02:00 - BONUS: Australia Did ItSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Next 100 Days Podcast
#529 - RJ Talyor - AI for eCommerce

The Next 100 Days Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 44:14


RJ Talyor is the Founder and CEO of Backstroke a AI for eCommerce generative content platform for email marketers. Instantly create on-brand, high-performing email subject lines, preview text, mobile push notifications, and SMS messages.Summary of PodcastPodcast introduction and guest backgroundGraham and Kevin introduce the Next 100 Days Podcast and welcome RJ Talyor from Indianapolis. RJ describes Indianapolis as offering the best of a big city with a small-city feel, with about a million people, great sports, culture, food, and good cost of living. He has traveled extensively but always enjoys returning home.Backstroke's AI email generation platformRJ introduces Backstroke.com, which generates performant email campaigns for e-commerce retailers selling clothes, pet food, furniture, and other products online and in-store. E-commerce brands typically expect 20-50% of revenue from email marketing while sending 3-5+ emails weekly, with customers spending 8-12 hours per campaign. Backstroke reduces this to approximately 15 minutes while personalising content so each customer receives a different message tailored to their interests and behaviour.Personalisation through data and engagement Backstroke personalises emails using multiple data layers: subscriber status, past engagement (opens, clicks, conversions), and appended third-party data revealing demographics like age, location, and gender. When additional data is unavailable, the platform uses progressive profiling—analysing engagement patterns to infer preferences. For example, if a customer consistently clicks on men's content over women's content, or prefers dark-coloured shirts over light ones, AI identifies these patterns to drive personalisation, which is more effective than manual analysis.Real-world personalisation: from negative to advocateGraham shares a personal story about Son of a Tailor, a Portuguese apparel brand, where his initial experience was poor—they sent him a shirt too short for his frame. However, the company responded exceptionally well, ultimately creating a monogrammed, high-quality shirt that transformed him into an advocate. RJ explains this is valuable data: AI can flag customers who experienced negative-to-positive journeys as potential super-fans or loyalty advocates, a pattern most marketers miss because they lack time to identify such nuanced customer experiences.AI pattern recognition beyond traditional metricsTraditional RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) models reduce customers to transactional data, but AI can extract signal from unstructured data to identify complex patterns. For instance, AI can recognize when a customer buys different sizes (suggesting purchases for others) or when multiple preferences exist within one account—like RJ's Spotify feed where his children's music preferences mix with his own. AI discerns these overlapping patterns that aren't immediately obvious to humans, enabling more sophisticated segmentation.Team expertise and company historyRJ co-founded Backstroke with his wife Allison, who holds a PhD in deep data analysis and chemical reagents, bringing statistical rigour and predictive modelling expertise. RJ's background includes starting Pattern89 in 2016, an AI company predicting Instagram and Facebook clicks using computer vision and natural language processing, which he sold to Shutterstock. Many Pattern89 team members joined Backstroke, bringing 10 years of AI-based marketing experience, while the team continuously innovates with new foundational models from Anthropic and OpenAI.Implementation results and Surge featureBackstroke achieves an average 30% uplift in conversion rates for new clients. Implementation typically takes about a month for full transformation, but recognising customer demand for faster results, the company launched "Surge," enabling campaigns to launch in 48 hours. This rapid-deployment feature demonstrates predictive capabilities quickly, satisfying customers who want immediate proof before committing to full onboarding.Email variants and human approval at scaleWhile technically capable of generating 10,000+ unique email variants, Backstroke has found that customers require human review of every variant version. Current implementations range from 60-100 variants, with combinations of hero images, subject lines, and templates creating exponential possibilities. The company is building QA agents to enable scaling to millions of variants while maintaining human oversight, recognizing that creative teams ultimately bear responsibility for brand representation.Brand guidelines versus performance metricsA fundamental tension exists between brand teams (who enforce guidelines like "models must face forward" or "only use this colour") and performance marketers (who know "shirts perform better laid on a bed than on a human"). RJ explains this is often gut-feel decision-making based on outdated tests—teams cite tests from a year ago by employees who've since left, creating stale guidelines. AI enables rapid testing of creative variations to identify incremental opportunities, but requires organisational willingness to experiment beyond established brand rules.Customer selection philosophyRather than trying to convince resistant customers to embrace AI, RJ focuses on the "one in 10" truly innovative marketers willing to change. He learned from his previous business that most prospects claim interest but quickly reveal organizational barriers requiring approvals. His strategy is to identify customers genuinely committed to transformation and willing to pay, directing others to resources instead. This approach conserves energy for high-potential partnerships where AI can deliver real impact.Backstroke's core value propositionBackstroke solves the "what" problem: what content, subject line, preview, template, hero image, product display, and offer to send to each person. The platform knows that 46% of clicks occur in the first 400 pixels, so it optimizes that space differently for men versus women, loyal customers versus new ones, and geographic regions. This focused specialization on content optimization is Backstroke's primary value, distinct from solving "when" (send time) or "who" (segmentation) problems.Practical tips for email marketersFor marketers using standard LLMs without specialised platforms, RJ recommends uploading all previous email data and creative assets, then asking the machine to identify winning creative dimensions. This approach reveals patterns in subject lines, imagery, copy length, and offers without requiring subscriber-level analysis, enabling better-than-average results for those without access to specialised tools.Email frequency paradox and engagementKevin raises frustration with receiving excessive emails from companies he likes, asking if AI can enable sending less email while achieving better results. RJ explains that higher engagement with personalised content could theoretically reduce frequency, but email is fundamentally a frequency game—brands send multiple emails weekly to stay top-of-inbox when customers are ready to buy. However, deliverability depends on engagement (opens, clicks), so sending irrelevant content backfires. Backstroke solves the "what" problem, but send-time optimisation and segmentation (the "when" and "who") remain separate challenges.Market focus and customer examples Backstroke focuses exclusively on B2C e-commerce in North America due to language complexity and GDPR privacy requirements in Europe. The platform serves impulse-purchase categories (apparel, furniture, bedding) differently than considered purchases (mattresses, cars), with separate trained models for each. Notable customers include Third Love (women's intimates), Cozy Earth (bedding), Helix (mattresses), and Emile Henry (cookware), representing the apparel and home goods verticals where Backstroke has developed deep expertise.Future roadmap: predictive marketing agentsRJ's 18-month roadmap focuses on building predictive marketing agents that complete marketing tasks generatively while humans serve as brand stewards and strategists. This vision extends beyond email to SMS, apps, and landing pages, with personalisation as a core feature. Graham notes the challenge of making such systems intuitive enough for non-technical users, reflecting the broader industry shift toward AI-augmented rather than AI-replaced marketing roles.European expansion and compliance strategyWhile Backstroke is currently North America-focused, RJ is open to European partnerships but wants to be proactive about compliance. GDPR itself isn't a blocker, but European customers require security documentation and certifications that Backstroke hasn't yet obtained. The company recently achieved SOC 2 compliance (required by enterprise businesses) and plans to secure necessary privacy certifications before entering European markets, avoiding disqualification during sales cycles.Podcast analysis and key takeawaysIn the wrap-up, RJ praises the podcast for getting past fluff into real marketing challenges, appreciating the nitty-gritty discussion of how marketers actually work. Graham and Kevin reflect that the conversation revealed AI's potential to solve the "what" problem while highlighting remaining challenges in "when" and "who" decisions. They note that Kevin's observation about sending less email...

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 11 June 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 17:46


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 June 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260611~372040d313.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260611~5b4603b5aa.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Mining Stock Education
Larry Lepard: Silver Miners Easily Double as Monetary Debasement Drives Commodity Supercycle

Mining Stock Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 38:07


MSE host Bill Powers interviews gold-stock fund manager Larry Lepard of Equity Management Associates (ema2.com) about the sharp junior-miner selloff, which he attributes to a strong jobs report and renewed rate-hike fears, and why he still expects higher gold and silver prices amid unavoidable monetary debasement. Lepard compares today's environment to 1970s-style inflation waves, argues new Fed chair Kevin Warsh may be more dovish than expected, and says a future monetary reset could drive gold toward $10,000/oz+ and silver far higher, boosting silver equities. He outlines his preferred “sweet spot” of emerging, growing producers, discusses jurisdiction risks, portfolio management and profit-taking, and shares favorite stock picks. 00:00 Intro 00:17 Market Selloff 02:19 Inflation Waves and Fed Outlook 03:22 Monetary Reset and Metal Targets 04:26 Warsh Pivot and Rate Cuts 06:52 Fund Flows and Commodity Shift 09:26 Where Value Hides in Miners 14:18 Favorite Producers and Jurisdictions 17:27 Silver Price Upside and Taking Profits 20:44 Avino Silver 12-Bagger 21:47 Volatility and Taking Profits 23:08 When Mining Bets Fail 24:41 Refining the Investing Process 26:05 Tokenized Equities Debate 27:02 Monetary Debasement Thesis 29:36 Favorite Gold & Silver Stocks 33:27 How to Follow Larry Larry's contact info and Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard Larry's Newsletter Sign-up: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT Larry's Quarterly Fund Letter: https://ema2.com/quarterly-reports/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

VoxTalks
S9 Ep32: The digital money supply

VoxTalks

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2026 27:19


Every day, billions of transactions settle between strangers who have no idea which bank the other uses. That lack of friction is not automatic. Nine-tenths of the money in daily circulation has been created by commercial banks, but it stays trustworthy only because central banks stand behind it, and keep the system in balance.In this week's episode Tim Phillips talks to Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University, CEPR) about what happens when new forms of digital money test that architecture. Cecchetti is one of the authors of the eighth Barcelona Report in The Future of Banking series, part of the Banking Initiative at IESE Business School, just published by CEPR as a free download.Will retail central bank digital currencies, tokenised deposits, and stablecoins upset the delicate balance of system that has been running for decades? Stablecoins, for example, do not create money, but they claim the status of money without the institutional guarantee that makes money trustworthy. Three jurisdictions — the US, the EU, and the UK — are each resolving the same underlying contradiction in different ways. None has fully resolved it.The research behind this episode:Niepelt, Dirk, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Hélène Rey, and Xavier Vives. 2026. Digital Money: The Future of Banking 8. London: CEPR Press. Available as a free download from CEPR.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Stephen G. Cecchetti. 2026. “The digital money supply.” VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestStephen Cecchetti is the Rosen Family Chair in International Finance at Brandeis University, a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and a Research Associate at the NBER. He was previously Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His research spanning monetary policy, financial stability, and banking regulation has shaped both academic and policy debate over three decades. He blogs at moneyandbanking.com.Research cited in this episodeWalter Bagehot's lender of last resort doctrine. In Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (1873), Bagehot argued that a central bank under stress should lend freely against good collateral at a penalty rate. The prescription remains the intellectual foundation for how central banks manage runs and systemic crises. Cecchetti invokes it to make the point that no private substitute for a central bank backstop has ever proved durable, and that the doctrine is now, one hundred and fifty years on, being tested by instruments its author could not have imagined.Monetary uniformity, mobility, and elasticity. The three institutional conditions underpinning general acceptance of money, developed in analysis by the Bank for International Settlements and discussed extensively in the report. Uniformity means a pound is a pound regardless of which bank holds it. Mobility means claims move between users and institutions at low cost and settle with finality. Elasticity means the supply of money can expand when it is under stress. Together they explain why we accept a deposit at face value without doing any analysis of the bank that issued it; and together they identify exactly where new forms of digital money create institutional gaps.Silicon Valley Bank failure, March 2023. SVB's collapse illustrates both the lender of last resort functioning and the limits of no-bailout commitments. Cecchetti notes that SVB's liabilities were still trading at par on the Thursday before its Friday failure because the Federal Reserve stood behind them. He also notes that Circle, the issuer of USDC, held $3.3 billion of its reserves at SVB and was effectively bailed out in the resolution. The episode is one of two occasions in the past twenty years where money market fund-like instruments have been backstopped by the Federal Reserve under stress.Genius Act (United States). Principle-based stablecoin regulation expected to come into effect in the US around 2027. Under its provisions, only stablecoins issued by bank-affiliated issuers will have access to the Federal Reserve; only those will therefore have the institutional backing needed to function as money. Stablecoins issued by non-bank entities will not.Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA), European Union. The EU framework for crypto assets, which entered into force in 2024. For stablecoins, MiCA requires issuers to hold 30 to 60% of their reserves in bank deposits, with no provision for central bank backing. The stated rationale is to keep deposits within the banking system; Cecchetti notes this creates a different category of vulnerability and leaves the question of what happens under stress unresolved.Bank of England stablecoin proposal (United Kingdom). The Bank of England's approach differs from both US and EU frameworks by explicitly requiring large stablecoin issuers to hold significant reserve deposits at the Bank of England, making them in effect narrow banks with a direct central bank backstop. Cecchetti regards this as the most coherent of the three approaches in terms of institutional logic, though the same fundamental question applies: whether holding to that design under stress would be politically sustainable.Tether and the jurisdictional challenge. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, is registered in El Salvador having previously operated out of the British Virgin Islands. Its tokens are held by users in multiple countries, traded on exchanges in multiple jurisdictions, and backed by US Treasury securities. Cecchetti uses this to illustrate why local regulation, however well-designed, is necessary but not sufficient; effective oversight of instruments that are genuinely global requires international standards and coordination.Fractional reserve banking and the goldsmith model. The institutional structure described in the episode has roots in mid-seventeenth century England, when goldsmiths began issuing more paper receipts than they had gold in their vaults. The goldsmiths became bankers; the paper became money; the vulnerability to runs became a structural feature of private money creation that persists today. Cecchetti uses the history to make the point that while technology changes how we store and transmit information, the underlying architecture of trust in private money is as old as Newtonian physics.More VoxTalks Economics episodesMaking banking safe, Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz. Our financial system is supposed to be more resilient than before the global financial crisis, but that didn't save Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank or First Republic. So what went wrong?Related reading on VoxEUNew coins on the block: Digital currencies and the financial system. The authors of the Barcelona Report warn that “Digital money will be reliable only where sound institutions and robust technology come together.”

The Julia La Roche Show
#375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2026 43:44


Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

Wealthion
The Dollar System Is Losing Trust — Gold's Monetary Reset Has Begun

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2026 14:24


Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG and co-author of the In Gold We Trust report, joins Wealthion's Trey Reik to explain why gold's rally may be about much more than a normal bull market.Stoeferle argues that gold is signaling a deeper loss of trust in the dollar-based monetary system, as de-dollarization, inflation volatility, central bank buying, and rising geopolitical risk reshape the global financial order. He also explains why gold may be entering the public participation phase of its bull market — with institutional investors only beginning to wake up to the role gold can play in portfolios.In this conversation, Ronnie and Trey discuss whether the Pax Americana is coming to a close, why fiat currencies look different when measured in gold, whether this is a monetary revaluation rather than a normal gold cycle, and what the In Gold We Trust report reveals about the future of money.

The David McWilliams Podcast
How Trump Could Kill the Dollar

The David McWilliams Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2026 48:29


Monetary historian Brendan Greeley explains why the dollar's power has nothing to do with the Fed, why crypto is just a bank in disguise, and why politicising the dollar might be the fastest way to end its reign as the world's reserve currency. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Inquiry
What's the future for monetary unions?

The Inquiry

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2026 23:15


At the beginning of this year Bulgaria, considered as one of the poorest countries in the European Union, became the latest to officially join the eurozone. Bulgaria's legal tender since 1881 had been the lev, but since the mid-1990s it had been pegged to other European currencies, first to the German deutschmark and now to the euro. But it remains to be seen if the country's economic policy can take advantage of the opportunities that joining the single currency can afford, in terms of trade and economic development. Monetary unions are not a new concept, some like the Scandinavian monetary union date back to the 19th Century, involving Denmark, Sweden and Norway. It established a fixed exchange rate system based on the gold standard, whilst member countries still had their own currencies before it was gradually dissolved from the outbreak of World War One onwards. Today, the biggest monetary union is the eurozone, used by around 358 million people across 21 European Union countries. It has one monetary authority for all the members and a standardised currency and coinage. And now the Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS is actively planning a monetary union with a common currency called the eco and pegged to the euro. The ambition is for greater economic sovereignty and regional economic integration. But with the US dollar as the world's dominant global reserve currency, even though it's not part of a global monetary union, is there an argument for one currency across all borders and if so, what should it be? So, on The Inquiry this week we're asking, ‘What's the future for monetary unions?'Contributors: Assoc Prof Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, Bulgaria Prof Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA Prof Mohamed Ben Omar Ndiaye, Cheikh Anta Diop University, Senegal Dr Judy Shelton, Senior Fellow, The Independent Institute, California, USAPresenter: Charmaine Cozier Producers: Daniel Rosney and Jill Collins Researcher: Evie Yabsley Editor: Tom Bigwood Technical producer: Toby James Production management: Phoebe Lomas and Liam Morrey(Photo: Euro and US dollar banknotes. Credit: BBC/Corbis Royalty Free)

The Bitcoin Standard Podcast
327. Principles of Economics Lecture 15: Monetary Expansion

The Bitcoin Standard Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2026 94:16


15th lecture of Principles of Economics explores monetary expansion as the issuance of credit unbacked by savings, how it distorts interest rates and misallocates capital, why this generates the business cycle, Mises' money typology & how central banks are central planners of capital markets.Get all course notes and slides on https://saifedean.com/poecourse

Palisade Radio
Simon Hunt: ‘Inevitable’ Oil Shortages, Famine is Coming, Gold & The New Monetary Order

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2026 34:58


Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran's demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July. This supply crunch, he argues, makes a global recession nearly certain by year-end, deepening significantly in the following year. The conversation shifts to China's strategic positioning. Hunt notes that China anticipated American geopolitical moves and has diversified its energy sources through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside massive domestic coal and renewable capacity. This allows China to withstand the Hormuz closure indefinitely, unlike Western nations. The discussion then turns to the evolving global monetary order, where Hunt describes a BRICS-led effort to create a multipolar system anchored in physical gold. He details China's construction of Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, enabling trade settlement in non-G7 currencies convertible to gold. While he sees gold prices reaching double-digit thousands in five years, he cautions that America is unlikely to revalue its gold reserves and warns of potential government confiscation during crises. On commodities, Hunt challenges the prevailing supercycle narrative, calling it premature. He predicts that a deep recession will cause physical demand to collapse, outweighing current supply constraints. He specifically highlights copper, noting that NVIDIA's shift to photonics could eliminate copper from data centers by 2028, undermining a key demand thesis. Strategic stockpiling of critical minerals by governments will eventually follow, but processing capacity remains a bottleneck controlled by China. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:00 – Middle East Conflict Origins 00:03:46 – New Gulf Security Architecture 00:06:05 – Oil Supply Disruption Impacts 00:08:06 – Straits of Hormuz Reopening 00:08:37 – China Trump Trade Dynamics 00:12:25 – Oil Prices Futures Disparity 00:14:14 – Fertilizer and Food Crisis 00:16:10 – BRICS Monetary System Shift 00:22:51 – Bond Yields and Instability 00:25:02 – Recession Outlook and Assets 00:30:40 – Commodity Supercycle Analysis 00:33:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com Website: https://simon-hunt.com/ Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook. Simon established this company in January 1996.

VoxTalks
S9 Ep30: Redefining the monetary standard

VoxTalks

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2026 26:24


The fiat money system has survived the Great Inflation, the global financial crisis, and a pandemic. But can it survive digital currencies?Bitcoin and the blockchain solved a genuine problem in computer science: how to stop people spending the same money twice. Forty years of successful inflation control means central bank money is stable; that is the stability in stablecoins, attempting to solve the volatility problem. What's next? What if the unit of account itself were indexed to consumer prices? Digitalisation might finally make that approach viable at scale. Price stability, by design.Will we still need cash? Maybe not now, But if you never use it, it may not be there if the blackout comes.The research behind this episode:Stracca, Livio. 2025. Redefining the Monetary Standard in the Digital Age: Digital Innovations and the Future of Monetary Policy. Springer Nature.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Livio Stracca. 2026. "Redefining the monetary standard." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestLivio Stracca is Deputy Director General for International and European Relations at the European Central Bank, where he has worked for more than two decades. His research spans monetary economics, international finance, and the implications of digitalisation for central banking, with extensive work on exchange rates, capital flows, and the architecture of the international monetary system. Research cited in this episodeThe double-spend problem. The fundamental challenge in any decentralised digital payment system: how to prevent a participant from spending the same unit of money twice when there is no trusted central authority to verify transactions. Bitcoin's 2008 white paper offered an innovative solution by making the transaction ledger public, cumulative, and computationally expensive to rewrite. The trade-off is that transparency sacrifices privacy; every transaction is visible to all participants in the network.The blockchain. A distributed ledger in which transactions are grouped into sequential blocks, each cryptographically linked to the one before. Reversing any transaction requires rewriting every subsequent block, which demands enormous computational effort. This design solves the double-spend problem in a decentralised network but makes the system slow and costly to operate at scale.The payment trilemma. A framework discussed in the episode and in Stracca's book: any digital payment system can optimise for at most two of three properties simultaneously (universal access, security against fraudulent transactions, and privacy). Cash is the only instrument that escapes the trilemma; digital systems must accept a trade-off among the three, and the choice is often made implicitly by the designer of the system rather than through democratic deliberation.Hayek, Friedrich A. 1976. Denationalisation of Money. London: Institute of Economic Affairs. The classic argument for currency competition: let currencies compete freely and the one providing the most stable prices will win. Economists, including Milton Friedman, largely rejected the proposal on the grounds that money exhibits strong network externalities; the more people use a currency, the more attractive it becomes to the next user, producing a natural tendency towards monopoly. A formal modern revisitation, finding similar conclusions, is Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, and Daniel Sanches. 2019. "Can Currency Competition Work?" Journal of Political Economy 127 (3): 1017 to 1058.Irving Fisher's compensated dollar. A proposal published in Fisher, Irving. 1913. "A Compensated Dollar." Quarterly Journal of Economics 27 (2): 213–235 (the same year the Federal Reserve was created). Fisher argued for a dollar whose purchasing power was held constant by adjusting its gold content in line with prices. The mechanical details of his proposal are no longer relevant, but its animating idea (indexing the unit of account to a price level) has gained new plausibility in a digital context.The Unidad de Fomento. Chile's inflation-indexed unit of account, in operation since 1967 and updated daily against the consumer price index. It is used widely in long-term contracts, including mortgages, and functions as a security that can be traded. Stracca cites it as evidence that an indexed monetary standard is operationally feasible, and as a prototype for what a digital equivalent might look like at larger scale.The Great Moderation. The period of low and stable inflation in advanced economies running roughly from the mid-1980s until the inflation episode of 2021 to 2023. Economists attribute it to improved monetary policy frameworks, particularly central bank independence, inflation targeting, and (crucially, in Stracca's account) the introduction of interest on reserves, which gave central banks precise control over the short-term interest rate without draining liquidity. Stracca treats the Great Moderation as the benchmark against which any proposed reform of the monetary standard must be judged.Programmable money. A form of digital money in which payment is conditional on an independently verifiable event, potentially confirmed by a machine rather than a human intermediary. Example: a payment that executes automatically when a delivery is confirmed by a sensor. Decentralised ledgers make such conditional payments technically straightforward; traditional banking systems can approximate them but with far greater friction. Stracca notes significant enthusiasm for programmable money but also real scepticism about whether the benefits outweigh the complexity in practice.More VoxTalks Economics episodesStablecoins and Global Imbalances, Gilles Moëc explains why we can think of stablecoins as a radical macroeconomic experiment that has arrived at exactly the moment the US external position is showing signs of stress.Can blockchain decentralise money, contracts, and finance? Bruno Biais on blockchain's potential, its flaws, and its future.Do stablecoins threaten financial stability? Richard Portes thinks so.

The David Knight Show
Interview: The Iran War Is Triggering a Monetary Reset

The David Knight Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2026 40:54 Transcription Available


Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight walk through what's coming after the Iran war shockwave — and Arterburn's assessment is that most of the pain hasn't arrived yet. Turkey and India are already feeling it: Turkey selling central bank gold reserves, India trying to discourage citizens from buying gold while silver premiums inside the country have skyrocketed due to import backlogs. With global central banks facing an estimated $50 trillion printing requirement just to cover debt service, and the Fed's new chair brought in specifically to cut rates regardless of inflation, Arterburn argues the monetary system is being deliberately transitioned — not reformed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

The REAL David Knight Show
Interview: The Iran War Is Triggering a Monetary Reset

The REAL David Knight Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2026 40:54 Transcription Available


Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight walk through what's coming after the Iran war shockwave — and Arterburn's assessment is that most of the pain hasn't arrived yet. Turkey and India are already feeling it: Turkey selling central bank gold reserves, India trying to discourage citizens from buying gold while silver premiums inside the country have skyrocketed due to import backlogs. With global central banks facing an estimated $50 trillion printing requirement just to cover debt service, and the Fed's new chair brought in specifically to cut rates regardless of inflation, Arterburn argues the monetary system is being deliberately transitioned — not reformed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Circle Of Insight- Foreign Affairs
Monetary Shockwaves: Fed Hawkishness, Tech Layoffs, and Global Economic Realignment

Circle Of Insight- Foreign Affairs

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2026 8:21 Transcription Available


From the internal debates revealed in the latest FOMC minutes to massive structural layoffs at tech giants like Meta, the cracks in the global financial architecture are widening. We unpack how tightening Western financial conditions intersect with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to reshape international trade and corporate resilience. Discover the strategic implications of these overlapping economic shocks and how global leaders are adjusting to a new era of high interest rates and fractured international markets.

Thoughts on the Market
The Case for Staying Bullish on Equities

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2026 5:48


Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

Politicology
The End of Financial Privacy? — The Weekly

Politicology

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2026 70:47


Nicholas Anthony (Research Fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives) joins Host Ron Steslow to examine how the stablecoin legislation moving through Congress is quietly remaking the financial system and expanding the surveillance state in the process. They dig into the Bank Secrecy Act and the third-party doctrine, the legal architecture that lets the government access Americans' financial records without a warrant. Next, they examine how AI is turning mass financial surveillance from aspiration into operational reality, and how political designations can be weaponized against ordinary Americans through their banks. Then they unpack the contradictions in the Trump administration's posture—anti-CBDC in name, enthusiastically pro-stablecoin in practice—and why programmable private money is functionally a central bank digital currency at arm's length. Finally, they discuss the prosecutions of open-source developers behind privacy tools like Tornado Cash and Samurai Wallet, and what's at stake if the precedent that code is protected speech gets tested in the Supreme Court. In Politicology+, they unpack a 2021 federal mandate that will require every new car sold in America to passively monitor its driver for "impairment" by next year. POLITICOLOGY+ Not yet a Politicology+ member? Don't miss all the extra episodes on the private, ad-free version of this podcast. Upgrade now at politicology.com/plus. CONTRIBUTE TO POLITICOLOGY politicology.com/donate SPONSORS & PROMO CODES https://bit.ly/44uAGZ8 Send your questions and ideas to podcast@politicology.com or leave a voicemail at ‪(703) 239-3068‬ Follow this week's panel on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/RonSteslow https://x.com/EconWithNick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The John Batchelor Show
S8 Ep800: Preview for Later: HEADLINE: Kevin Warsh's Vision for a Narrower Federal Reserve GUEST: Liz Peek SUMMARY: Peek discusses nominee Kevin Warsh's plan to return the Fed to a narrow mandate focused on monetary stability. Warsh aims to reduce socia

The John Batchelor Show

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2026 1:52


Preview for Later: HEADLINE: Kevin Warsh's Vision for a Narrower Federal Reserve GUEST: Liz PeekSUMMARY: Peek discusses nominee Kevin Warsh's plan to return the Fed to a narrow mandate focused on monetary stability. Warsh aims to reduce social policy involvement and decrease the Fed's day-to-day market influence.1914 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Daf in Halacha – OU Torah
Monetary Mitzvos: To Pay or Not to Pay (Menachos 105)

Daf in Halacha – OU Torah

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 26, 2026


Tales from the Crypt
#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Tales from the Crypt

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2026 114:03


Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss Bitcoin's power law price dynamics, the accelerating "treadmill" of traditional markets, escalating geopolitical chaos including Russia's digital authoritarianism and America's shifting foreign policy, and the mathematical tension between Bitcoin's decelerating growth and Wall Street's attempt to subsume it into exponential fiat systems. Matthew on Twitter: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Once BITten!
Valuarchy - A Monetary Value Leadership System. - Brendan Guest - #603

Once BITten!

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2026 98:36


Valuarchy is the novel system which solves the centuries long problems inherent with democracy. In this episode of the Once Bitten podcast, Daniel Prince interviews Brendan Guest, a Canadian Bitcoiner and author of "ValueArchy," about his journey into Bitcoin, his move back to his wife's family farm, homeschooling, and his alternative political system called ValueArchy. Key Topics: Bitcoin meetups and community building Self-custody of Bitcoin Distrust in institutions Home birth and homeschooling Homesteading and food sovereignty Critique of democracy and taxation ValueArchy: A proposed alternative political system Property rights and the role of government Connect with Brendan: X - @TipToeBTC NOSTR - npub14erlvhtvp444cknx4k79jyr0hn0npyvuzu9vpm589u84tsws8eqsq2msm2 https://valuarchy.com/ Check out my book ‘Choose Life' - https://bitcoinbook.shop/search?q=prince Pleb Service Announcements: Join 20 thousand Bitcoiners on @cluborange https://signup.cluborange.org/co/princey CONFERENCES: BITCOIN IRELAND - 22ND -25TH MAY 2026 - DUBLIN https://bitcoinireland.eu/ Use code BITTEN for - 10% BTC PRAGUE - 11th - 13th June 2026 http://btcprg.me/BITTEN - Use code BITTEN for - 10% BTC HEL - 25th - 26th September 2026. - Helsinki https://btchel.com/ Use code BITTEN for - 10% Shills and Mench's: BITBOX - SELF CUSTODY YOUR BITCOIN - www.bitbox.swiss/bitten Use Code BITTEN THE MEETUP BREAKDWON - BITCOIN EVENTS UK - https://www.themeetupbreakdown.com/ SWAN BITCOIN - www.swan.com/bitten PLEBEIAN MARKET - BUY AND SELL STUFF FOR SATS; https://plebeian.market/ @PlebeianMarket ZAPRITE - https://zaprite.com/bitten - Invoicing and accounting for Bitcoiners - Save $40 SATSBACK - Shop online and earn back sats! https://satsback.com/register/5AxjyPRZV8PNJGlM ALL FURTHER LINKS HERE - FOR DISCOUNTS AND OFFERS - https://vida.page/princey - https://linktr.ee/princey21m

Bob Murphy Show
Ep. 493 Three Deeper Dives Into Fiscal and Monetary Economics

Bob Murphy Show

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2026 63:05


Bob uses clips from his ZeroHedge debate with Randall Wray, as well as a moment from a forthcoming Human Action podcast, to provide deeper analysis than he had time to cover in the moments.Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The ZeroHedge debate between Murphy and Randall Wray.Bob's (quick) critique of the sectoral balance argument.Bob's Human Action episode on Cantillon effects.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

The Mind Your Business Podcast
Episode 803: The 3 Essential Money Skills (and 4 Monetary Models) That Will Make You a Millionaire

The Mind Your Business Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 72:06


One of the most common dilemmas facing entrepreneurs today is what comes first: making the money or mastering the mindset to keep it? Much like the age-old "chicken or the egg" riddle, these two pillars of business are deeply interconnected, feeding into one another to create a thriving ecosystem, and Jenni and I are breaking it all down for you in this one. Today we look at where you should start in terms of a self-audit, how the three essential skills of money help you identify exactly where you should be pouring your energy based on the current stage of your business, and so much more. Whether you are a brand-new creator building from scratch, a seasoned pro looking to scale without burnout, or a leader trying to determine why your high revenue isn't translating into profit, this episode will light the way for what to do next! Want my Business Profitability Playbook? Come follow me on IG and DM me PROFIT and I'll send it over! And don't forget, if you want to be the first to know when Jenni reopens the doors to her monthly meditation membership, The InnerStellar Collective? If you're craving more intuition, mindfulness, and intentional space in your life, join the waitlist here. You'll be the first to hear what's coming next - go to www.bbdcoaching.com/innerstellarcollective. ✨ If you haven't yet signed up for my free weekly newsletter for online experts, The Digital CEO Weekly, you can sign up now and get it delivered straight to your inbox every Monday morning at www.jameswedmore.com/newsletter.  Hey there, Digital CEO! If you're loving this episode and you know this is your year to finally build, launch, or scale your digital business the right way — then I've got something for you. Business By Design, my signature program that gives you everything you need to design a leveraged, profitable digital product business, only opens once a year… If you want to be the FIRST notified when doors are open, you can get on the waitlist for BBD 2026 right now. That way, you'll be the first to know when we open enrollment again (and trust me, you do not want to miss it!). Head to www.businessbydesign.net/ and join the waitlist today! Snap a screenshot of the episode playing on your device, post it to your Instagram Stories and tag us, @jameswedmore and @jenniwedmore. We'd love to hear what resonated with you the most from this episode and especially what you want covered in future ones!  In this episode you'll hear:  Jenni's inspiring story of launching her dream membership that was 15 years in the making Why I have zero interest in hearing you're "bad at sales" if you aren't willing to put in the 15-minute daily reps The profit margin to aim for early on in business, and the specific reason I tell people to avoid in-person hires until they hit $500k Why your business will never actually give you financial freedom, and the one thing you must do with your cashflow to actually get it My personal philosophy on why money left sitting in a business account is a liability that will always find a way to get spent A scary realization that if you have to talk to every lead for an hour to sell a digital course, your business isn't actually scalable How to use recurring and renewable revenue models to stop feeling like you're only one bad launch away from your business going under Why "getting rich fast" is the literal death of financial freedom, and how to master the  habits that actually build a portfolio What can help stop you from freaking out over every algorithm change that comes at us  For full show notes and links, visit: www.mindyourbusinesspodcast.com/blog/803