Podcasts about macro strategies

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With the May FOMC meeting in progress, our analysts Matt Hornbach and Michael Gapen offer perspective on U.S. economic projections and whether markets are aligned.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting underway, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, May 6th at 10am in New York.Mike, before we talk about your expectations for the FOMC meeting itself, I wanted to get your take on the U.S. economy heading into the meeting. How are you seeing things today? And in particular, how do you think what happened on April 2nd, so-called Liberation Day, affects the outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think right now, Matt, I would say the economy's still on relatively solid footing, and by that I mean the economy had been moderating. Yes, the first quarter GDP print was negative. But that was mainly because firms were frontloading a lot of inventories through imports. So imports were up over 40 percent at an annualized pace in the quarter. A lot of that went into inventories and into business spending. That was just a mechanical drag on activity.And the April employment report, I think, showed the same thing. We're now averaging about 145,000 jobs per month this year. That's down from about 170,000 per month in the second half of last year. So the hiring rate is slowing down, but no signs of a sudden stop. No signs in layoffs picking up. So I'd say the economy is on fairly solid footing, and the labor market is also on fairly solid footing – as we enter the period now when we think tariffs will have a greater effect on the outlook. So you asked, you know, Liberation Day. How does that affect the outlook? Right now we'd say it puts a lot of uncertainty in front of us. on pretty solid footing now. But Matt, looking forward, we have a lot of concerns about where things may go and we expect activity to slow and inflation to rise.Matthew Hornbach: That's great background, Mike, for what I want to ask you about next, which is of course the FOMC meeting this week. We won't get a new set of economic projections from the committee. But if we did, what do you think they would do with them and how would you assess the reaction function one might be able to tease out of those economic projections?Michael Gapen: You're right, we don't get a new set of projections, but New York Fed President John Williams did provide some indication about how he adjusted his forecast, and John tends to be one of the – kind of a median participant.He tends to be centrist in his thinking and his projection. So I do think that that gives us an indication of what the Fed is thinking; and he said he expects GDP growth to slow to somewhat below 1 percent in 2025. He expects inflation to rise to 3.5 to 4 percent this year, and he said the unemployment rates likely to move between 4.5 and 5 percent over the next year. And those phrases are really key. That's the same thing, Matt, as you know, we are expecting for the U.S. economy and I do think the Fed is thinking of it the same way.Matthew Hornbach: So one final question for you, Mike. In terms of this meeting itself, what are you expecting the Fed to deliver this week? And what are the risks you see being around that expectation; you know, that might catch investors off guard?Michael Gapen:I think the Fed's main message this week will be that they're prepared to wait, that they think policy's in a good spot right now. They think inflation will be rising sharply, that the tariff shock is a lot larger than they had anticipated earlier this year. And they will need time to assess whether that inflation impulse is transitory, or whether it creates more persistent inflation. So I think what they will say is we're in a good position to wait and we need clarity on the outlook before we can act.In this case, we think acting means doing nothing. But acting could also mean cutting if the labor market weakens. So I think there'll be worried about inflation today, a weak labor market tomorrow. And so I think risks around this meeting really are tilted in the direction of a more hawkish message than markets are expecting at least vis-a-vis current pricing. I think the market wants to hear the Fed will be ready to support the economy. Of course, we think they will, but I think the Fed's also going to be worried about inflation pressures in the near term. So that, I think, might catch investors off guard.So Matt, what I think might catch investors off guard may be a little misplaced. I'm an economist after all. You're the strategist, you're the expert on the treasury market and how investors may be perceiving events at the moment. So the treasury market had quite the month since April 2nd. For a moment U.S. treasuries didn't act like the safe haven asset many have come to expect. What do you think happened?Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, you're absolutely right. Treasury yields initially fell, but then spent a healthy portion of the last month rising and investors were caught off guard by what they saw happening in the treasury market. I've seen this type of behavior in the treasury market, which I've been watching now for 25 years. I've seen this happen twice before in my career. The first time was during the Great Financial Crisis, and the second time I saw it was in March of 2020. So, this being the third time you know, I don't know if it was the charm or if it was something else, but treasury yields went up quite a bit.I think what investors were witnessing in the treasury market is really a reflection of the degree of uncertainty and the breadth with which that uncertainty, traversed the world. Both the Great Financial Crisis and the initial stage of the pandemic in March of 2020 were events that were global in nature. They were in many ways systemic in nature, and they were events that most investors hadn't contemplated or seen in their lifetimes. And when this happens, I think investors tend to reduce risk in all of its forms until the dust settles. And one of those very important forms of risk in the fixed income markets is duration risk.So, I think investors were paring back duration risk, which helped the U.S. Treasury market perform pretty poorly at one moment over the past month.Michael Gapen: So Matt, one aspect of market pricing that stands out to me is how rates markets are pricing 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. And just after April 2nd, the market had priced in about 100 basis points of cuts.How are you thinking about the market pricing today? Matt, as you know, it differs quite a bit from what we think will happen.Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. This is where, you know, understanding that market prices in the interest rate complex reflect the average outcome of a wide variety of scenarios; really every scenario that is conceivable in the minds of investors. And, of course, as you mentioned, Mike depending on exactly how this year ends up playing out there, there could be a scenario in which the Federal Reserve has to lower rates much more aggressively than perhaps even markets are pricing today.So, the market being an average of a wide variety of outcome will find it really challenging to take out all of the rate cuts that are priced in today. Or said differently, the market will find it challenging to price in your baseline scenario. And ultimately, I think the way in which the market ends up truing up to your projections, Mike, is just with time.I think as we make our way through this year and the economic data come in, in-line with your baseline projections, the market will eventually price out those rate cuts that you see in there today. But that's going to take time. It's going to take investors growing increasingly comfortable that we can avoid a recession at least in perception this year before, you know, on your projections, we have a bit of a slower economy in 2026.Michael Gapen: Well, it definitely does feel like a bimodal world, where investor conviction is low. Matt, where do you have conviction in the rates market today?Matthew Hornbach: So, the way we've been thinking about this environment where we can avoid a recession this year, but maybe 2026 the risks rise a bit more. We think that that's the type of environment where the yield curve in the United States can steepen, and what that means practically is that yields on longer maturity bonds will go up relative to yields on shorter maturity bonds. So, you get this steepening of the yield curve. And that is where we have the highest conviction; in terms of, what happens with the Treasury market this year is we have a steeper yield curve by the time we get to December.Now part of that steepening we think comes because as we approach 2026 where Mike, you have the Fed beginning to lower rates in your baseline, the market will have to increasingly price with more conviction a lower policy rate from the Fed. But then at the same time, you know, we probably will have an environment where treasury supply will have to increase.As a result of the fiscal policies that the government is discussing at the moment. And so you have this environment where yields on longer maturity securities are pressured higher relative to yields on shorter maturity treasuries.So, with that, Mike, we'll wrap our conversation. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: It's been great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas previews our expectation ahead of the May FOMC meeting. We believe that the Fed will skip for a third time in the cycle and have a difficult time threading the needle and making everyone happy at this upcoming meeting. If the Fed elects to stay on the sidelines to wait for data to confirm that further rate cuts are needed, they might realize that they will come too late. If the Fed messaging comes across as more hawkish than markets would like, it could result in risk assets to continue giving back recent returns.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recaps key market themes that have played out in markets during the epic month of April, drawing parallels to other historical market events. Additionally, he touches on fears of dedollarization, weak soft data, the question of when this will finally filter through to the hard data, and how the Fed could deal with slowing economic growth. To cap it off he notes what else to look out for as month end approaches with key labor data, macro data, and corporate earnings continue to roll in and the risks to markets.

Market risk events come in all shapes and sizes, originating from unique sources of uncertainty. We've seen them all - valuation bubble unwinds, mortgage credit crashes, Fed policy shocks, even the shutdown of the US economy from Covid. Over the last month, investors have been forced to confront a new risk, that of the imposition of substantial tariffs by the US on its trading partners. With this in mind, it was great to welcome Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research of Standard and Chartered Bank, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion begins with Steven's assessment of the setup coming in to 2025 and that was one in which the market was long dollars in anticipation of the Trump agenda.We next talk about balance of payments identity math and how it is difficult to solve simultaneously for a lower trade deficit, higher direct investment from abroad and lower US interest rates. He suggests, however, that the speed with which asset prices moved in March and April, have complicated the decision-making process for investors thinking about making investments into the US. We next explore the factors driving the dollar lower. Here, in addition to noting that implied Fed cuts have increased by 50bps over the last month, Steven also suggests that a risk premium may be assigned by foreign investors to US assets. He points as well to pessimism about the US economy, noting that this is not yet showing up in the hard data.There's much more to learn about Steven's framework in our discussion, which I do hope you enjoy. 

Charles Hoskinson predicts Bitcoin will surge to $250K by year-end—even amid Trump's escalating tariff war! I'm joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, to break down exactly how these tariffs could shake up global markets, impact crypto prices, and what you need to know right now. Plus, don't miss Dan from The Chart Guys, who'll be dropping essential market insights and actionable trade ideas in the second half of the show. Peter Tchir: https://x.com/tfmkts The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys ►►

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest tariff developments and potential implications for the economy and markets. As a reminder, a palooza is informally viewed as a large frenzied event, thus it's apt to call this latest version a “tariff-palooza” as markets got jolted by the larger than expected and broad-based announcement on “Liberation Day.” Although the approach the administration has taken a tougher stance on fiscal spending and trade negotiations, it is directionally in line with our 2025 Outlook, given all the uncertainty that this latest tariff rounds have had on both investors and corporate America, unless the tariffs are not fully binding and or get negotiated away quickly, the recent volatility has raised our recession risks.  

Trump's Liberation Day tariffs proved far larger than expected and have markets in a defensive posture for good reason. Today we break down why this moment has come as well as what to watch for as the ongoing impact of this historic policy move unfolds. Today hosted by John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.   White House official announcement on the tariffs: https://bit.ly/4ld2E3e  Michael Every's latest after the new tariffs: https://bit.ly/4iSClO7  Yanis Varoufakis on this once-in-a-generation moment: https://bit.ly/3E1VP3U    Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the outcome of the recent FOMC meeting, and the outlook for interest rates in 2025 and 2026.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, March 20th at 10am in New York.Mike, the Fed released a new set of projections yesterday. What do these say and what did you learn from them?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, well, the Fed's forecast actually now look a lot like our outlook for the U.S. economy. So, they revised down their expectation of growth. They revised up their expectation for inflation. So, it has a bit of a stagflation, slower growth, stickier inflation outlook – which is very much what we were thinking coming into this year. The Fed also, though, highlighted high policy uncertainty. They wrote down a forecast, but I'm not all that convinced that they have a lot of confidence in how things will evolve.So, I think for me, really, the bigger story were their updated perceptions about uncertainty and risks to the outlook. So, in December, if you remember, they told us; virtually everybody on the committee said, uncertainty around inflation is high and risk to inflation to the upside. They complemented that this week with the fact that uncertainty around growth in the labor market is high, but risk to growth is to the downside, the unemployment rate to the upside. So, you have kind of competing risks here around the Fed's dual mandate. They've got upside risk to inflation, downside risk to growth.To me, that's kind of the really important message. It's hard to have a confidence in a forecast right now, but I think that risk assessment is really interesting.Matthew Hornbach: And with that in mind, and given all the policy uncertainty that the Fed mentioned, what did Powell say about how the Fed should react? In other words, what is appropriate policy at this stage?Michael Gapen: Right. Yeah, it's tricky, right? So, on one side of your mandate, you think risks to inflation are squarely to the upside and growth in labor markets to the downside. So, what do you do? And I think Powell said, I think that the logical answer, which is, well, right now you do nothing, and you wait.But then I think what Powell said is: How we think this plays out is – tariffs may boost inflation in the short run. Which we're going to try to ignore. And if the economy does weaken and the labor market softens, we'll ease policy in order to support activity, right? So, there might be, say, symmetric risks around their dual mandate, but there's asymmetry in the policy outlook.He said we're either going to be on hold or we're going to be cutting rates. And generally, I think that's the right thing.Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, what I heard from you was that the Fed was going to look through inflation in the near term, and then eventually cut. I mean, do you think they can do that?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think, Matt, that's a great question. My answer to that is, I think it's easier said than done. We agree that the next move from the Fed is going to be a cut, but we think that cut comes much later.This is a very data dependent Fed. So, I think in the moment, if tariffs boost inflation now and weaken activity later, it's easy to say, ‘I'm going to look through that and cut.' But in practice, I think it's hard.So, Matt, actually, at this point, though, I think I would actually kind of ask you the same question, but in a different way, right? We doubt the Fed may be able to do this. But the market priced in more rate cuts this year than we think is likely. How would you explain the market pricing and how far away from my expectation do you think it could run?Matthew Hornbach: What's really interesting about how the market has priced the recent events is – it's actually pricing more in line with the spirt of your view. In the sense that the market has priced more rate cuts in 2026 than it's pricing in 2025. So, in spirit, the market is very much with you. But as we like to say, the market price is an average of all possible outcomes. And if one of the outcomes is the Fed does nothing for the foreseeable future. And the other outcome is the Fed cuts aggressively this year. Then the market price has to reflect some degree of additional easing in 2025 that wouldn't necessarily be aligned with a rational baseline for Fed policy.So, market in some ways is reflecting the idea that you're proposing in your forecast. But it's also reflecting the idea that it's a market and that it has to be priced for some amount of risk premia that the Fed is ultimately forced to cut rates more.And in fact, if I can ask you a question relating to that, Mike, you know, the equity market at one point last week had fallen about 10 per cent from the highs.Michael Gapen: Mm hmm.Matthew Hornbach: Number one, is there a percentage drawdown that gets the Fed's attention? You know, how does the Fed think about the equity market in an environment like this?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the equity market, in my view, and I think the view of the Fed, is what I'll call a key spillover channel. Trade and manufacturing are relatively small shares of the economy. So, if we pursue restrictive trade policies, growth should slow, inflation may be firm. That's the Fed's essential baseline; it's ours. The risk here though is that somewhere in there you get a destabilizing period, equity markets fall, upper income consumers take a step back, and you have a much broader downturn at that point.So, you ask a great question, how far do equity markets have to fall? Well, we get 10 per cent declines in equity markets on average about once a year, so it's not that. And the theory would say households have to view that decline in wealth as permanent, right? So, it has to be a fairly substantial decline.Given how far wealth has risen, we're over [$]51 trillion now and an increase in net wealth since COVID. I think that decline has to be large. I would pencil in something, probably need about a 30 per cent decline in equity markets – before maybe that spillover risk gets very elevated.So, Matt, if I can turn back, because, you know, I think we're in general agreement here on what we heard yesterday. But what I'd like to do in terms of looking forward, so aside from the usual communications coming from the Fed, after the blackout period, following the meeting. What do you think investors will be focusing on over the next month?Matthew Hornbach: My sense is that there is already an unusual amount of focus on April 2nd.You know, that is the day when the Trump administration is supposed to unveil their plan for reciprocal tariffs. It's unclear what tariffs will be implemented on April 2nd; what tariffs will be saved for a negotiating process thereafter. So, clients are very focused on April 2nd. I also suspect that at some various periods between now and then, we are likely to receive previews, in the form of various communications coming from the Trump administration on the types of policies that we may end up seeing delivered on April 2nd.And so, I suspect that between now and then there will be a crescendo in concern, perhaps, over what will come of U.S. trade policy for the balance of this year. And really for the balance of the next three and a half years.So, with that, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jWq1NY   - Today we sift through the market reaction to Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, with the market celebrating their delayed implementation until at least after the April 1 report on US trade policy. We also discuss the mostly wound-down US earnings season, which has proven the best in three years, the big reversal in bond yields, developments in FX and some great links/must reads (see slide deck link) for those trying to grasp the Trump administration's risky strategy. Today features Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy with host John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Jacob's piece on BYD: https://bit.ly/4hE819m  John's latest FX Update: https://bit.ly/3X3Axcf  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

A daily update on what's happening in the Rocket Pool community on Discord, Twitter, Reddit, and the DAO forum. #RocketPool #rpl #Ethereum #eth #crypto #cryptocurrency #staking #news Podcast RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/cd29a3d8/podcast/rss Anchor.fm: https://anchor.fm/rocket-fuel Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Mvta9d2MsKq2u62w8RSoo Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rocket-fuel/id1655014529 0:00 - Welcome Rocket Pool news 0:36 - Saturn devnet 1 launched https://discordapp.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163979141545995/1338725238393012246 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/1337329451532292127/1337329467500003389 Protocol update https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163979141545995/1338608165297590304 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/1338607045196120167/1338622151435223101 https://x.com/Rocket_Pool/status/1889841235277566163 Treasury reports https://dao.rocketpool.net/t/pdao-2025-01-16-2025-02-13-treasury-report/3511 https://dao.rocketpool.net/t/imc-period-32-report-period-33-budget/3512 RPL price pumps again https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163713063288832/1338699377463791687 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405503016234385409/1338774268938293278 https://www.binance.com/en/trade/RPL_USDT?theme=dark&type=spot GMC town hall notes https://discord.com/channels/1109303903767507016/1109303904547655724/1338628097859260617 DAO funding beyond inflation https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/1338968765945090131 rETH discount continues to close https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405503016234385409/1338903627737071678 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/894377118828486666/1338898742534996090 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/894377118828486666/1339278491027247166 Liquity V2 issue https://x.com/LiquityProtocol/status/1889685629681934789 https://x.com/liquityprotocol/status/1890091102239408544? AlphaGrowth continuation? https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163713063288832/1338942621749350492 https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163713063288832/1338943998974492723 RPL on Base to Coinbase https://x.com/coinbaseassets/status/1889378039764500484?s=46 Saturn follow up vote sentiment check https://dao.rocketpool.net/t/saturn-follow-up-votes-1/3504/5 Knoshua implementing treegen https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/1016190079808581723/1338652094764158976 Sleety's cool RP animations https://discord.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163713063288832/1338882980642553919 https://x.com/waqwaqattack/status/1889350091909083318 https://discordapp.com/channels/405159462932971535/405163713063288832/1339290923749740565 Staking news Client updates https://github.com/status-im/nimbus-eth2/releases/tag/v25.2.0 Ethereum Foundation asks about staking eth https://x.com/ethereumfndn/status/1889978211100226024?s=46 Staking ETF coming soon https://x.com/TreeNewsFeed/status/1889801801362248020? EthStaker call with Rescue Node https://x.com/ethStaker/status/1889368801336033326 NodeSet claims live https://discordapp.com/channels/968587363536220252/1164433179092983869/1339663928325832798 Ethereum news All core devs spice https://x.com/nixorokish/status/1890066672192774281 Unchain is live https://x.com/unichain/status/1889313993296064770?s=46 World Lib Financial reveal Macro Strategy https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1889429781512409346?s=46

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/417UZv0   - While we have made the USD bear case to materialize at some point, we don't have much in the way of confirmation that it will arrive sooner rather than later, even if USDJPY may have posted a significant top. Today, a look at what is needed to get that confirmation while also running through the news of the day and what to watch for next across asset classes. Hosting today's podcast is John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week's labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4gs9L4q   - Today we discuss the weakness in US tech sector after the close yesterday on Google's operational results and huge cap-ex spending plans and on AMD's weak forecast. As well, a look at the frictions already developing after 10% tariffs against China went ahead yesterday, together with the risks from AI disappointments to China exposure in most of the Mag 7 stocks. Elsewhere, the US dollar is falling and the JPY is surging after US 10-year rates have crossed below a key chart point. Precious metals are also on the rise. On today's call are Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.  

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CyH5bX   - Trump delivered on the comprehensive tariffs he promised at the weekend against Canada, Mexico and China, although they don't actually go into effect until 12:01 a.m (0501 GMT) tonight. That's when we find out how much the market is hoping that we somehow see Trump climb down from imposing these tariffs at the last moment. Today we discuss the quite modest market reaction to this momentous news and what to look for next across asset classes, from foreign exchange to equities, commodities and US treasuries. On today's pod are John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.  

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research, Michael Zezas, and Global Head of Macro Strategy, Matt Hornbach, discuss how the Trump administration's fiscal policies could impact Treasuries markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research.Matthew Hornbach: And I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll talk about U.S. fiscal policy expectations under the new Trump administration and the path for U.S. Treasury yields.It's Thursday, January 30th at 10am in New York.Fiscal policy is one of the four key channels that have a major impact on markets. And I want to get into the outlook for the broader path for fiscal policy under the new administration. But Matt, let's start with your initial take on this week's FOMC meeting.Matthew Hornbach: So, investors came into the FOMC meeting this week with a view that they were going to hear a message from Chair Powell that sounded very similar to the message they heard from him in December. And I think that was largely the outcome. In other words, investors got what they expected out of this FOMC meeting. What did it say about the chance the Fed would lower interest rates again as soon as the March FOMC meeting? I think in that respect investors walked away with the message that the Fed's baseline view for the path of monetary policy probably did not include a reduction of the policy rate at the March FOMC meeting. But that there was a lot of data to take on board between now and that meeting. And, of course, the Fed as ever remains data dependent.All of that said, the year ahead for markets will rely on more than just Fed policy. Fiscal policy may feature just as prominently. But during the first week of Trump's presidency, we didn't get much signaling around the president's fiscal policy intentions. There are plenty of key issues to discuss as we anticipate more details from the new administration.So, Mike, to set the scene here. What is the government's budget baseline at the start of Trump's second term? And what are the president's priorities in terms of fiscal policies?Michael Zezas: You know, I think the real big variable here is the set of tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025. These were tax cuts originally passed in President Trump's first term. And if they're allowed to expire, then the budget baseline would show that the deficit would be about $100 billion smaller next year.If instead the tax cuts are extended and then President Trump were able to get a couple more items on top of that – say, for example, lifting the cap on state and local tax deduction and creating a domestic manufacturing tax credit; two things that we think are well within the consensus of Republicans, even with their slim majority – then the deficit impact swings from a contraction to something like a couple hundred billion dollars of deficit expansion next year. So, there's meaningful variance there.And Matt, we've got 10-year Treasury yields hovering near highs that we haven't seen since before the global financial crisis around 10 years ago. And yields are up around a full percentage point since September. So, what's going on here and to what extent is the debate on the deficit influential?Matthew Hornbach: Well, I think we have to consider a couple of factors. The deficit certainly being one of them, but people have been discussing deficits for a long time now. It's certainly news to no one that the deficit has grown quite substantially over the past several years. And most investors expect that the deficit will continue to grow. So, concerns around the deficit are definitely a factor and in particular how those deficits create more government bonds supply. The U.S. Treasury, of course, is in charge of determining exactly how much government bond supply ends up hitting the marketplace.But it's important to note that the incoming U.S. Treasury secretary has been on the record as suggesting that lower deficits relative to the size of the economy are desired. Taking the deficit to GDP ratio from its current 7 per cent to 3 per cent over the next four years is desirable, according to the incoming Treasury secretary. So, I think it is far from conclusive that deficits are only heading in one direction. They may very well stabilize, and investors will eventually need to come to terms with that possibility.The other factor I think that's going on in the Treasury market today relates to the calendar. Effectively we have just gone through the end of the year. It's typically a time when investors pull back from active investment, but not every investor pulls back from actively investing in the market. And in particular, there is a consortium of investors that trade with more of a momentum bias that saw yields moving higher and invested in that direction; that, of course, exacerbated the move.And of course, this was all occurring ahead of a very important event, which was the inauguration of President Trump. There was a lot of concern amongst investors about exactly what the executive orders would entail for key issues like trade policy. And so there was, I think, a buyer's strike in the government bond market really until we got past the inauguration.So, Mike, with that background, can you help investors understand the process by which legislation and its deficit impact will be decided? Are there signposts to pay attention to? Perhaps people and processes to watch?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so the starting point here is Republicans have very slim majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. And extending these tax cuts in the way Republicans want to do it probably means they won't get enough Democratic votes to cross the aisle in the Senate to avoid a filibuster.So, you have to use this process called budget reconciliation to pass things with a simple majority. That's important because the first step here is determining how much of an expected deficit expansion that Republicans are willing to accept. So, procedurally then, what you can expect from here, is the House of Representatives take the first step – probably by the end of May. And then the Senate will decide what level of deficit expansion they're comfortable with – which then means really in the fall we'll find out what tax provisions are in, which ones are out, and then ultimately what the budget impact would be in 2026.But because of that, it means that between here and the fall, many different fiscal outcomes will seem very likely, even if ultimately our base case, which is an extension of the TCJA with a couple of extra provisions, is what actually comes true.And given that, Matt, would you say that this type of confusion in the near term might also translate into some variance in Treasury yields along the way to ultimately what you think the end point for the year is, which is lower yields from here?Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. There's such a focus amongst investors on the fiscal policy outlook that any volatility in the negotiation process will almost certainly show up in Treasury yields over time.Michael Zezas: Got it.Matthew Hornbach: On that note, Mike, one more question, if I may. Could you walk me through the important upcoming dates for Congress that could shed light on the willingness or ability to expand the deficit further?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so I'd pay attention to this March 14th deadline for extending stopgap appropriations because there will likely be a lot of chatter amongst Congressional Republicans about fiscal expectations. And it's the type of thing that could feed into some of the volatility and perception that you talked about, which might move markets in the meantime.I still think most of the signal we have to wait for here is around the reconciliation process, around what the Senate might say over the summer. And then probably most importantly, the negotiation in the fall about ultimately what taxes will be passed, what that deficit impact will be. And then there's this other variable around tariffs, which can also create an offsetting impact on any deficit expansion.So still a lot to play for despite that near term deadline, which might give us a little bit of information and might influence markets on a near term basis.Matthew Hornbach: Great. Well Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Zezas: Matt, great speaking with you. And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, discusses our outlook for the Fed's first meeting of 2025, in which we believe the Committee should be “defiantly data dependent” and keep rates on hold. We focus on our base case that Powell will deliver a neutral message, but also discuss risks around that view. We conclude with our expectations for how markets will trade in the coming weeks.

The Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet could have far-reaching implications for the banking sector, money markets and monetary policy. Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Martin Tobias from the U.S. Interest Rate Strategy Team discuss. ----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Martin Tobias: And I'm Martin Tobias from the U.S. Interest Rate Strategy Team.Matthew Hornbach: Today, we're going to talk about the widespread concerns around the dip in reserve levels at the Fed and what it means for banking, money markets, and beyond.It's Thursday, January 16th at 10am in New York.The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet since June 2022, when it embarked on quantitative tightening in order to combat inflation. Reserves held at the Fed recently dipped below [$]3 trillion at year end, their lowest level since 2020. This has raised a lot of questions among investors, and we want to address some of them.Marty, you've been following these developments closely, so let's start with the basics. What are Fed reserves and why are they important?Martin Tobias: Reserves are one of the key line items on the liability side of the Fed balance sheet. Like any balance sheet, even your household budget, you have liabilities, which are debts and financial obligations, and you have assets. For the Fed, its assets primarily consist of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, and then you have liabilities like U.S. currency in circulation and bank reserves held at the Fed.These reserves consist of electronic deposits that commercial banks, savings and loan institutions, and credit unions hold at Federal Reserve banks. And these depository institutions earn interest from the Fed on these reserve balances.There are other Fed balance sheet liabilities like the Treasury General Account and the Overnight Reversed Repo Facility. But, to save us from some complexity, I won't go into those right now. Bottom line, these three liabilities are inversely linked to one another, and thus cannot be viewed in isolation.Having said that, the reason this is important is because central bank reserves are the most liquid and ultimate form of money. They underpin nearly all other forms of money, such as the deposits individuals or businesses hold at commercial banks. In simplest terms, those reserves are a sort of security blanket.Matthew Hornbach: Okay, so what led to this most recent dip in reserves?Martin Tobias: Well, that's the good news. We think the recent dip in reserves below [$] 3 trillion was simply related to temporary dynamics in funding markets at the end of the year, as opposed to a permanent drain of cash from the banking system.Matthew Hornbach: This kind of reduction in reserves has far reaching implications on several different levels. The banking sector, money markets, and monetary policy. So, let's take them one at a time. How does it affect the banking sector?Martin Tobias: So individual banks maintain different levels of reserves to fit their specific business models; while differences in reserve management also appear across large compared to small banks. As macro strategists, we monitor reserve balances in the aggregate and have identified a few different regimes based on the supply of liquidity.While reserves did fall below [$]3 trillion at the end of the year, we note the Fed Standing Repo Facility, which is an instrument that offers on demand access to liquidity for banks at a fixed cost, did not receive any usage. We interpret this to mean, even though reserves temporarily dipped below [$]3 trillion, it is a level that is still above scarcity in the aggregate.Matthew Hornbach: How about potential stability and liquidity of money markets?Martin Tobias: Occasional signs of volatility in money market rates over the past year have been clear signs that liquidity is transitioning from a super abundancy closer to an ample amount. The fact that there has become more volatility in money market rates – but being limited to identifiable dates – is really indicative of normal market functioning where liquidity is being redistributed from those who have it in excess to those in need of it.Year- end was just the latest example of there being some more volatility in money market rates. But as has been the case over the past year, these temporary upward pressures quickly normalized as liquidity in funding markets still remains abundant. In fact, reserves rose by [$] 440 billion to [$] 3.3 trillion in the week ended January 8th.Matthew Hornbach: Would this reduction in reserves that occurred over the end of the year influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions?Martin Tobias: Right. As you alluded to earlier, the Fed has been passively reducing the size of its balance sheet to complement its actions with its primary monetary policy tool, the Fed Funds Rate. And I think our listeners are all familiar with the Fed Funds Rate because in simplest terms it's the rate that banks charge each other when lending money overnight, and that in turn influences the interest you pay on your loans and credit cards. Now the goal of the Fed's quantitative tightening program is to bring the balance sheet to the smallest size consistent with efficient money market functioning.So, we think the Fed is closely watching when declines in reserves occur and the sensitivity of changes in money market rates to those declines. Our house baseline view remains at quantitative tightening ends late in the first quarter of 2025.Matthew Hornbach: So, bottom line, for people who invest in money market funds, what's the takeaway?Martin Tobias: The bottom line is money markets continue to operate normally, and even though the Fed has lowered its policy rates, the yields on money markets do remain attractive for many types of retail and institutional investors.Matthew Hornbach: Well, Marty, thanks for taking the time to talk.Martin Tobias: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, [00:06:00] please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025.  We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.

Welcome to The Day Trading Show. This podcast is hosted by Austin Silver and powered by ASFX. We bring you conversations with the best traders of our generation. No rented Lambos or fake Rolexs will be found here. Grab your indulgence and enjoy a discussion focused on making money in markets, trading psychology, and becoming the best trader you can be! This is the best podcast in the world for day traders so make sure you're subscribed! In this episode of the podcast, trader and podcast host Colum Murphy shares his journey through the world of trading, offering insights into macroeconomic analysis, trading strategies, and the psychological discipline required for success. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market narratives, the evolving role of technology in trading, and learning through conversations with industry experts. Colum also emphasizes the value of mentorship, structured approaches, and managing risks while exploring the challenges and rewards of navigating volatile markets. Packed with actionable advice, this episode is a must-listen for traders of all levels. Connect with Colm: https://x.com/unpackingthemkt --------------------------------------------------------- Sponsor: Topone Link: https://toponetrader.com/asfx Code: ASFX --------------------------------------------------------- Sponsor: Edgeful Link: https://edgeful.com/?via=asfx --------------------------------------------------------- Sponsor: Tradezella Link: https://www.tradezella.com/?via=asfx Code: ASFX10 for 10% off Monthly Membership Code: ASFX20 for 20% off Annual Membership --------------------------------------------------------- Connect With Austin: https://www.instagram.com/austinsilverfx https://www.twitter.com/austinsilverfx https://www.facebook.com/austinsilverfx

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy joins our Chief U.S. Economist to discuss the Fed's recent rate cut and why persistent inflation is likely to slow the pace of future cuts.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew: Today, we're going to talk about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, December 19th at 10a.m. in New York.The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third rate cut for the year. This move by the Fed was just as the consensus had anticipated. However, in its meeting yesterday, the Fed indicated that 2025 rate cuts would happen at a slower pace than investors were expecting. So Mike, what are committee members projecting in terms of upcoming rate cuts in 2025 and 2026?Michael: Yeah, Matt, the Fed dialed back its expectations for policy rate easing in both 2025 and 2026. They now only look for two rate cuts of 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the funds rate to 3.9% and then only another 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 3.4%. So a major dialing back in their expectations of rate cuts over the next two years.Matthew: What are the factors that are driving what now appears to be a slightly less dovish view of the policy rate?Michael: Chair Powell mentioned, I think, two things that were really important. One, he said that many committee members saw recent firmness in inflation as a surprise. And so I think some FOMC members extrapolated that strength in inflation going forward and therefore thought fewer rate cuts were appropriate. But Chair Powell also said other FOMC members incorporated expectations about potential changes in policy, which we inferred to mean changes about tariffs, immigration policy, maybe additional fiscal spending. And so whether they bake that in as explicit assumptions or just saw it as risks to the outlook, I think that these were the two main factors. So either just momentum in inflation or views on policy rate changes, which could lead to greater inflation going forward.Matthew: So Mike, what were your expectations going into this meeting and how did yesterday's outcome change Morgan Stanley's outlook for Federal Reserve policy next year and the year thereafter?Michael: We are a little more comfortable with inflation than the Fed appears to be. So we previously thought the Fed would be cutting rates three times next year and doing all of that in the first half of the year. But we have to listen to what they're thinking and it appears that the bar for rate cuts is higher. In other words, they may need more evidence to reduce policy rates. One month of inflation isn't going to do it, for example. So what we did is we took one rate cut out of the forecast for 2025. We now only look for two rate cuts in 2025, one in March and one in June.As we look into 2026, we do think the effect of higher tariffs and restrictions on immigration policy will slow the economy more, so we continue to look for more rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed is projecting but obviously 2026 is a long way away. So in short, Matt, we dialed back our assumptions for policy rate easing to take into account what the Fed appears to be saying about a higher bar for comfort on inflation before they ease again.So Matt, if I can actually turn it back to you: how, if at all, did yesterday's meeting, and what Chair Powell said, change some of your key forecasts?Matthew: So we came into this meeting advocating for a neutral stance in the bond market. We had seen a market pricing that ended up being more in line with the outcome of the meetings. We didn't expect yields to fall dramatically in the wake of this meeting, and we didn't expect yields to rise dramatically in the wake of this meeting. But what we ended up seeing in the marketplace was higher yields as a result of a policy projection that I think surprised investors somewhat and now the market is pricing an outlook that is somewhat similar to how the Fed is forecasting or projecting their policy rate into the future.In terms of our treasury yield forecasts, we didn't see anything in that meeting that changes the outlook for treasury markets all that much. As you said, Mike, that in 2026, we're expecting much lower policy rates. And that ultimately is going to weigh on treasury yields as we make our way through the course of 2025. When we forecast market rates or prices, we have to think about where we are going to be in the future and how we're going to be thinking about the future from then. And so when we think about where our treasury yield's going to be at the end of 2025, we need to try to invoke the views of investors at the end of 2025, which of course are going to be looking out into 2026.So when we consider the rate policy path that you're projecting at the moment and the factors that are driving that rate policy projection - a slower growth, for example, a bit more moderate inflation - we do think that investors will be looking towards investing in the government bond market as we make our way through next year, because 2026 should be even more supportive of government bond markets than perhaps the economy and Fed policy might be in 2025.So that's how we think about the interest rate marketplace. We continue to project a 10 year treasury yield of just about three and a half percent at the end of 2025 that does seem a ways away from where we are today, with the 10 year treasury yield closer to four and a half percent, but a year is a long time. And that's plenty of time, we think, for yields to move lower gradually as policy does as well. On the foreign exchange side. The dollar we are projecting to soften next year, and this would be in line with our view for lower treasury yields. For the time being, the dollar reacted in a very positive way to the FOMC meeting this week but we think in 2025, you will see some softening in the dollar. And that primarily occurs against the Australian dollar, the Euro, as well as the Yen. We are projecting the dollar/yen exchange rate to end next year just below 140, which is going to be quite a move from current levels, but we do think that a year is plenty of time to see the dollar depreciate and that again links up very nicely with our forecast for lower treasury yields.Mike, with that said, one more question for you, if you would: where do things stand with inflation now? And how does this latest FOMC signal, how does it relate to inflation expectations for the year ahead?Michael: So right now, inflation has been a little bit stronger than we and I think the Fed had anticipated, and that's coming from two sources. One, hurricane-related effects on car prices. So the need to replace a lot of cars has pushed new and used car prices higher. We think that's a temporary story that's likely to reverse in the coming months. The more longer term concern has been around housing related inflation, or what we would call shelter inflation. The good news in that is in November, it took a marked step lower. So I do think it tells us that that component, which has been holding up inflation, will continue to move down. But as we look ahead to your point about inflation expectations, the real concern here is about potential shifts in policy, maybe the implementation of tariffs, the restriction of immigration.We as economists would normally say those should have level effects or one-off effects on inflation. And normally I'd have a high confidence in that statement. But we just came out of a very prolonged period of higher than normal inflation, so I think the concern is repetitive, one-off shocks to inflation, lead inflation expectations to move higher. Now, we don't think that will happen. Our outlook is for rate cuts, but this is the concern. So we think inflation moves lower. But we're certainly watching the behavior of inflation expectations to see if our forecast is misguided.Matthew: Well, great Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Mike: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In a special podcast ahead of the publication of our 2025 global outlook, our experts offer key views across public and private markets in what promises to be yet another dramatic year for investors. On our panel is Sonja Laud, Global CIO; Christopher Jeffery, Head of Macro Strategy; Colin Reedie, Head of Active Strategies; Rob Martin, Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research, Private Markets; and Howie Li, Global Head of Index and ETFs. Among other points, they cover: Key market dynamics over 2024 – and how they might evolve next year What we expect from key asset classes within private markets Positioning within our Active Fixed Income and Multi Asset teams Concentration risk within equities The podcast was recorded on 4 December and was moderated by Max Julius, Head of Content. For professional investors only. Capital at risk.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of the key topics and our views from the November monthly report, US Macro2Markets Outlook: Markets feel adrift post-election, now what? George reiterates the house call that the Fed will likely deliver another 25bp cut for 2024, bringing the total to 100bps of cuts for this past year. We think since this is the last 25bp remaining cut, that was part of the September SEP forecast, why skip it. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes were dovish and flagged that market functioning is now in focus (with the Fed thinking about reducing the RRP rate by 5bps) why skip at year-end and create unnecessary volatile during an illiquid period for broader markets. Not to mention skipping now could come off as political since its in their forecasts from before the election outcome. The only way the Fed does not deliver a cut is if the NFP data meaningfully beats expectations and the prior weak reports get revised higher. We are skeptical that the latest NFP report will be strong given that the data collection period was during the election week when the focus was elsewhere for most in the US. And let's not forget recent labor market trends have been decelerating.   Further afield we believe the Fed will cut another 75bps in 2025, where we expect them to skip in January after the inauguration, and then cut once per quarter in March, June, and September bringing rates into the upper 3% levels. We note that there are many different possible Fed rate paths once we get past mid-2025, as there are a variety of Trump policies that could alter the economic landscape. If the economy were to weaken and not respond as quickly to Trump's pro-growth policies, or worse, the tariffs and immigration policies lead to reduced growth, our bias is for the Fed to cut more. We expect the full interest rates curve to steepen, starting in Q1-2025 (with the 2yr reacting to the Fed still in cutting mode) and continue through the end of the year, as the focus shifts to how the US will allocate and fund US Treasury debt. How the US handles the deficit and debt ahead will also be a main focus of the incoming new Treasury Secretary.

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After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the so-called Trump Trades are still worth pursuing? Returning to the podcast to answer those questions this week, as well as to offer some initial thoughts for 2025, we welcome back Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Global Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the market implications heading into and out of the recent US presidential election. In George's view there are a couple schools of thoughts forming on how markets participants are looking to further position for a 2nd Trump administration, one that also has Republicans in power in the Congress as well. In one camp, and the one that has worked thus far, has been the playbook from the 2016 Trump 1.0 election, where financials and the dollar rallied but rates sold off. George suggests that there is more than one path potentially ahead and that it will pay to remain open minded on what may happen to the economy, markets and overall policy.  In George's views starting points matter and a lot of the Trump 1.0 trade playbook could be priced-in already. Overall, the fear of higher fiscal deficits and a resurgence in inflation could be misplaced if there is an honest effort to seek government efficiency and reduce spending. Lastly, George reminds us that “macro still matters” and that the economy remains very bifurcated and sensitive to financial conditions. The next administration is inheriting a stock market with stretched valuations and an economy that has benefited from government spending. Meanwhile, labor markets have been weakening in the private sector for quarters and that may not change until we get further clarity on how companies react to the changes in government and fiscal policies ahead.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and it will likely result in the Fed cutting at a slower pace. We are now expecting the Fed to deliver a 25bp cuts going forward and tweaked on our longer term rates forecasts. 

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a recently published research note, we discuss how, as Q4 begins, high expectations and divergent positioning across and within asset classes make for a less obvious opportunity set.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the back of a recently published FOMC preview report, this week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through what to expect at the September FOMC meeting and the rationale for why our house view is calling for the first cut to be 50bps. George also explores how this easing cycle may progress. In George's view, this is a historical event because this easing cycle is being launched as a preemptive move to avoid further cooling in the labor market and economy. In the last few easing cycles, the Fed has lowered rates in reaction to a specific event or catalyst (i.e. dot.com bust, GFC and the pandemic) that shocks and quickly weakens the economy (forcing the Fed into action). This time the Fed has seen the macro environment turn and is being cautious because recent data is likely overstating how healthy the economy truly is. Therefore, the Fed is trying to modulate rates with the goal of avoiding a hard landing due to macro reasons (driven by the impact of higher rates on consumer spending, small business activity and government finances). In our view, and as covered in the podcast and our FOMC preview report, there are plenty of reasons to start off with a 50bp cut. From a risk management perspective, there are two points to make. If the Fed is behind the curve (we think they are, they should have eased this past summer), they should cut rates quicker at the start and then attenuate the speed later in the easing cycle.   Although many surveys and forecasters are calling for 25bp cut, the market has priced in 50bps and to disappoint market pricing (which is embedded in all asset classes) runs the risk of acutely tightening financial conditions at the start of the easing cycle. That would be counterproductive and against the reason to cut in the first place. Further down the road, as the Fed has a few cuts under its belt, at that stage is where we think there could be more push back from the Fed without triggering adverse market reactions. Lastly, we think the market has a lot of the potential cuts already priced-in for the overall cycle. Where one cannot definitively spell out at this point what is the right pace and final resting place for the Fed Funds rate. The election may have an impact during the early days of 2025 (as fiscal policy adjusts) too. We have been arguing the sooner the Fed starts, the less they may need to do. Its possible that we get pitstops along the way towards a neutral rate or it comes in a flash. Bottom-line: We think 50bp is the best option in September. Post the first cut, the next moves from the Fed will come down to the outlook for the economy and markets.  

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the last major macro event that happened this past Friday, the Fed's Jackson hole symposium. Specifically chair Powell's opening speech acknowledged that the labor market cooling is unmistakably happening now (and in reality has been in our view for many quarters) and thus the Fed has pivoted to worrying about the jobs picture. As a result, chair Powell said the “time has come” to start adjusting policy rates lower (likely at the September meeting) to help combat further labor market weakness. Given that many of the conditions that have led up to this Fed pivot formed the basis for our house view for the better part of the year, we have not made major changes to our outlook for the Fed, economy, and markets. Prior to the event we already had increased our odds for larger rate cuts, where if the August NFP is weak, the Fed will likely start this easing cycle with 50bps. Meanwhile, this month has felt much longer than the typical August summer, George echoed back to another similarly long and volatile August, the August of 2007. George believes that the conditions are different to back then but the valuation setup is similar in terms of markets that are over-valued and sentiment very complacent. George argues that 2007 taught us to value liquidity and watch out for vol triggers. 

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, puts into context how risk market preferences and a buy the dip mentality has likely led to the bounce from oversold conditions that were present at the early start of August around the adjustments of positioning.  George remains cautious and expects more episodic vol events over the end of summer into early Fall. Meanwhile, George highlights what to watch and what may change chair Powell's message at Jackson Hole with the jobs data being the driver.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, goes over the macro-olympiad of events from central banks to key data releases and concludes by saying that this week could set the tone for the balance of the summer for markets. In terms of the July FOMC meeting, we believe the Fed will need to converge with market expectations in regards to rate cuts. A dovish July FOMC would be consistent with the last 6 prior FOMCs, where rates rally. If that happens it should bring the curve even closer to dis-inverting before they actually cut rates in September. In the meanwhile, there is a lot of time until the September FOMC meeting, where the next focus will NFP, CPI and Jackson Hole in August.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews recent market, macro and political events in the US.  George and team have been focused on the lags of monetary policy, the lags in how long its been taking for sticky inflation to unwind and the data discrepancies in the true health of the US labor market. The latest CPI report showed a better than expected inflation reading, which was a welcome sign and consistent with our house view that the worst on the inflation front is probably over.  We would be remiss in not discussing the market's reaction to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Thus far this incident has been met with risk-on in the marketplace with the curve steepening and a major sector rotation in stocks, now being dubbed “Trump Trades.” We caution that a lot may be priced-in to the curve right now. Lastly we cover what to watch for before July month-end with PCE and jobs data revisions our main focus before we speak again ahead of the FOMC.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews a recent special topic from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, where the team has found that the last few years of higher nominal activity (boosted by higher prices given elevated inflation levels) has made the economy, company earnings, and market performance look better than what they truly are. George concludes by discussing the upcoming CPI report which should continue to point towards lower reading as the disinflationary trends in the economy seem to be on track. The key area that the Macro Strategy team is focusing on is the evolution of shelter costs and is there finally a catch up to more real-time measures of rental prices.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, quickly reviews that first two weeks of June, which were macro event intense with various central bank meetings and inflation reports among other things. The more hawkish Fed event led to the strategy team pushing back their first Fed cut view to September from July. George believes the market becomes more technical-driven and less macro-focused into quarter-end.  

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gets us caught up on what has been happening in global macro and markets, with a focus on recapping the May NFP jobs report, which he believes wasn't as strong as the headlines suggested, and that it is another report that demonstrates there are clearly macro divergences forming in various parts of the labor force. George also provides his thoughts on what to look out for in the CPI report, where we are waiting to see if the shelter costs ever come down enough to pull inflation readings lower. Meanwhile, the CPI report takes place ahead of the June FOMC meeting where we are keenly focused on the dots (interest rate estimates) and the terminal level estimates for the core PCE inflation reading published in the summary of economic projections (SEP) by the Fed. In addition, will Chair Powell sound dovish (and echo some of the same concerns that the strategy team has around the true health of the jobs market) or will Chair Powell be hawkish. Chair Powell has threaded the needle lately with his communications, but if markets deem that his message is hawkish, after a hawkish release of the dots, a major risk-off would be in store.

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, recaps what he has learned from the various trips he has been on while visiting investors and how it compares to our house view. He also goes over his short-term views on inflation ahead of the all-important CPI report. In George's view, just like the last NFP report captured some of the concerns that have been forming for quarters now (and something we have been flagging), what if shelter cost declines show up now and actually start driving CPI lower, just in time for a Fed that needs greater confidence before thinking about when to ease rates ahead.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the FOMC lacks confidence on future inflation path and is not ready to commit to the timing on rate cuts. Lastly, George briefly highlights why we are still focused on and worried about the ongoing macro divergences in U.S. economic data and that the economy looks stronger due to fiscal policy.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn't terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting. What we learned at the March FOMC is still important, the Fed is increasingly focused on their dual-mandate and will react to labor market weakness just as it would to changes for the path for inflation. George also walked through a special topic theme from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, the topic being how healthy is the consumer and are there signs of the wealth effect at work post the recent large rally in financial assets. Lastly George gave a mini-NFP preview.

Tom welcomes back New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert Larry McDonald. Larry discussed the impact of political decisions on the U.S. economy and markets. He highlights the concerning trend of deficit spending relative to GDP, revealing that it cost the U.S. $834 billion to grow the GDP by $334 billion in the last quarter of 2023. He predicts a continued focus on short-term economic growth by politicians to retain power, leading to an inflationary economic environment. McDonald also discussed the potential implications for banks with commercial real estate holdings, emphasizing the need for Federal Reserve intervention as the market faces a significant downturn. He warned of a potential economic crisis if the Fed raises interest rates, putting stress on both banks and consumers. McDonald shares his insights on an impending energy crisis around 2025-2026. He attributes this coming crisis to factors such as population growth, improved living standards in developing nations, and inadequate capital investments in energy resources. He underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions and climate change on supply chains and inflation, shaping a shift towards a multipolar world order. McDonald suggests that these changes will influence the performance of precious metals, with potential disruptions creating opportunities for investors. He also emphasizes the importance of addressing sustainability concerns, noting that progress in this area may be slower than anticipated. McDonald's forthcoming book, set to be released in March, delves deeper into these pressing issues. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Politics & Debt5:32 - Democrats & Spending10:12 - Loosening Talk & Effect15:28 - Banks & Commercial Losses19:27 - Economic Realities22:37 - Wealth Concentration27:54 - Risks - Stocks & Banking31:28 - Geopolitics & Conflicts38:10 - Precious Metals43:24 - Green Energy & Metals46:54 - Book Announcement48:54 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Deficit spending costs: U.S. spent $834B for $334B GDP growth in Q4 2023. Banks face commercial real estate crisis, may need Fed intervention. Predicted energy crisis 2025-2026 due to global factors and capital shortfall. Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondNew Book - Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/2capfzt9 Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas. Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China's Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor. In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today's leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 - 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Society Generale. In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities. In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies. Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities ...

Our Global Macro Strategist explains the complex nature of recent U.S. economic reports, and which figures should matter most to investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about what investors should take away from recent economic data. It's Thursday, February 29, at 4pm in New York.There's been a string of confusing US inflation reports recently, and macro markets have reacted with vigor to the significant upside surprises in the data. Before these inflation reports, our economists thought that January Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, or PCE inflation, would come at 0.23 per cent for the month. On the back of the Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, our economists increased their PCE inflation forecast to 0.29 per cent month-over-month. Then after the Producers' Price Index, or PPI inflation report, they revised that forecast even higher – to 0.43 per cent month-over-month. Today, core PCE inflation actually printed at 0.42 per cent - very close to our economists' revised forecast.That means the economy produced nearly twice as much inflation in January as our economists thought it would originally. The January CPI and PPI inflation reports seem to suggest that while inflation is off the record peaks it had reached, the path down is not going to be smooth and easy. Now, the question is: How much weight should investors put on this data? The answer depends on how much weight Federal Open Market Committee participants place on it. After all, the way in which FOMC participants reacted to activity data in the third quarter of 2023 – which was to hold rates steady despite encouraging inflation data – sent US Treasury yields sharply higher.Sometimes data is irrational. So we would take the recent inflation data with a grain of salt. Let me give you an example of the divergence in recent data that's just that – an outlying number that investors should treat with some skepticism. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, calculates two measures of rent for the CPI index: Owner's equivalent rent, or OER, and rents for primary residences. Both measures use very similar underlying rent data. But the BLS weights different aspects of that rent data differently for OER than for rents.OER increased by 0.56 per cent month-over-month in January, while primary residence rents increased 0.36 per cent month-over-month. This is extremely rare. If the BLS were to release the inflation data every day of the year, this type of discrepancy would occur only twice in a lifetime – or every 43 years.The confusing nature of recent economic data suggests to us that investors should interpret the data as the Fed would. Our economists don't think that recent data changed the views of FOMC participants and they still expect a first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting. All in all, we suggest that investors move to a neutral stance on the US treasury market while the irrationality of the data passes by.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

In the latest Market Signals podcast LPL Financial's Head of Macro Strategy, Kristian Kerr and Chief Investment Officer, Marc Zabicki, discuss the market's recalibration of Federal Reserve expectations, some of the key catalysts to the lift in Japan's equity markets, and a few contrarian signs that the tech-driven rise in U.S. markets could be getting a bit long in the tooth. Tracking #543585

Join us this week as we discuss global macro strategies for 2024. We discuss the 2024 election & Outlook - will the election have an impact on markets? geopolitical impact? World stability? Econ stability- factors for better or worse? We discuss Russia, China, mid east, oil gold, bonds, partisan change in 2024, US political strategy vs geo political strategy, trade war w China, globalization vs deglobalization. --> hypo-globalization. inflation price collapse? Disinflation 1980-2020, China slowdown, and more. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-macro-strategies-for-2024-matt-gertken Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Tim Baker | Metric Fin   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Investors are concerned that the upcoming election might interfere with policy decisions. Here's why our view is different.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Matthew Hornbach: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll discuss whether the election will change Fed policy this year. It's Thursday, January 25th at 10 a.m. in New York. Matthew Hornbach: All eyes are on the Fed as 2024 gets underway. Investors are concerned not only about the timing and the magnitude of the expected rate cuts this year, but also on the liquidity in the funding markets, which is intricately linked to the Fed's ongoing quantitative tightening operations, or QT. Seth, let's dig right into it. Does the outcome of the US presidential election in November change your team's baseline view that the Fed will lower rates starting in June? Seth Carpenter: Matt, I think the short answer to your question is no. So our baseline forecast is, the Fed starts cutting rates in June. And over the second half of the year, it gets a total of 100 basis points worth of cuts in. But that forecast is predicated on the downward trajectory for inflation and the economy's slowing but not falling off of a cliff, or put simply, it's based on the Fed following their statutory objectives for stable prices and full employment, and not the political cycle. Matthew Hornbach: So, Seth, we often hear from investors that they believe that the election will have an impact on Fed policy and we also hear from FOMC participants from time to time about this topic. But why is it that FOMC participants dismiss this wisdom or conventional wisdom amongst investors that the election might interfere with Fed policy? Seth Carpenter: I think that question has a really simple answer, which is that the FOMC participants, they're the ones sitting around the table making the decisions, and they don't see themselves as being influenced by the politics. I mean, I can say I was at the Fed for 15 years. I was a staffer preparing memos, doing briefings to the committee in the 2000 election, the 2004 election, the 2008 election, the 2012 election. And I can honestly say from my firsthand experience, there really wasn't anything about the fact of the election that was doing anything to influence the way that monetary policy was being decided. Their eyes were fixed on those statutory objectives of full employment and stable prices. But let me turn it around to you, Matt, because I know that you did a lot of homework. You went back through the historical record and you looked at policy decisions in years when there were elections, in years when there weren't elections. When you do that really careful analysis, what comes out of that pattern? What do you see in the policy decisions that the committee took? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. We looked at actual policy rate changes going all the way back to 1971. So really getting in that period of time when inflation was also a problem in the 1970s and early 1980s. And we went all the way through the present day. And what we found was that the Fed doesn't shy away from changing policy, whether it be an election year, a general election year, a midterm election year or no election in a given year. They change policy all the time. You know, then we looked at, well, does the policy changes that occur in election years or non election years, does it differ in notable ways? Does the Fed tend to cut rates more in election years or hike rates more in non election years? And we didn't find any notable pattern at all. It just became very apparent in the data that we looked at that there isn't a political bias in terms of the policy rate, whether to change it or not, change it, to move it up, to move it down. The Fed seems, based on the data, to act in the best interest of what's going on in the economy at the time. Seth Carpenter: That makes sense to me, and that's very much consistent with my experience there. But let me push a little bit more, because I know that you didn't just do that wave of analysis and then stop. You always burn the midnight oil here, and you went back through the actual transcripts. Because one thing I know I hear from clients and you must hear it as well, is surely the FOMC has to be aware that the election is going on. How could they not be aware of it? It's got to come up during the meetings. It has to come up during the meeting. So when you look at the transcripts themselves, what was said during the meetings, how much do they talk about the election? Matthew Hornbach: They're definitely aware that there's an election, as I think most people around the world would be. And when they talk about the elections, you know, typically it comes up almost every election year. You typically get a handful of FOMC participants that bring up the election. 2008 was an interesting exception, where only one person mentioned the election the entire year. Seth Carpenter: They may have been thinking about other things. Matthew Hornbach: They may have other things on their mind, like the great financial crisis that was unfolding. But what we found is that not that many people actually bring it up every election year, but there are a handful here in there that talk about it. You typically find that in the first half of the calendar year, there's not that much discussion about the election. But as the election approaches in November, you get more discussion that ends up showing up in the transcript. So you typically find that the month of October, November and December will have the most discussion about the election by FOMC participants. The second thing we found, Seth, was that when they talk about the election, they typically talk about it in sort of two lines of thinking. One is with respect to fiscal policy. Elections can change fiscal policy, either going into the election or coming out of the election, fiscal policy can differ. And so they typically focus on the state of play with respect to fiscal policy. In 2012, which is when you were there at the fed. I'm sure you noticed that there were lots of discussions about the fiscal cliff. So we noticed that in the transcripts as well. Similarly, in 2016, in December, after the election, in 2016, when the markets were starting to price in the prospect of tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, there was a lot of discussion on the Fed at the time about fiscal policy. Seth Carpenter: Matt, it sounds like you're staking out the controversial view that the central bank of the country is paying attention to the macroeconomic environment and the main factors that drive the macro economy. Matthew Hornbach: That's absolutely right. We also found that they discussed the election in terms of the uncertainty that elections caused businesses and consumers. They typically grow more concerned about business investment as we head into an election and businesses pulling back on that investment for a short period of time, until they have clarity about the election outcome. So that's generally what they're talking about when they discuss the election, fiscal policy and uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: All right. So I feel a little bit relieved that my firsthand experience is fully consistent with all the digging that you did through the transcript through multiple decades. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. So, Seth, with that, let me just thank you for taking the time to talk with me. Seth Carpenter: Matt, I could talk to you all day, but particularly on this topic, it was a pleasure to be here. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, investors are selling off bonds in anticipation of new issues with higher yields, triggering a historic rout in the world's biggest bond markets.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll discuss the ongoing U.S. Treasury bond market route. It's Tuesday, October 24th, at 10 a.m. in New York. The world's biggest bond markets are in the midst of a historic route, and an increasing number of experts are referring to this as the deepest bond bear market of all time. Simply put, it works like this. When the central bank policy rate increases, investors' expectations for yields on bonds go up. This prompts investors to sell the bonds they currently own in order to buy newly issued ones that promise higher yields. So in this higher for longer interest rate environment, investors have been selling bonds, resulting in serious declines in bond prices and simultaneous surges in bond yields. In the U.S. Treasury market, which is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, the yield on the 30 year U.S. government bond recently hit 5% for the first time since 2007. German and Japanese bond yields are also reaching significantly elevated levels. Why does the turmoil in the bond market matter so much for consumers? For one thing, the yields on local government bonds impacts how banks priced mortgages. In the U.S. Specifically, mortgage rates tend to track the yield on ten year treasuries. Government backed mortgage provider Freddie Mac recently announced that the average interest rate on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.3% in the week ending September 28th. That's the highest level since 2000. The ripple effects from the bond market route stretch further than mortgages. For instance, higher U.S. yields also means an even stronger U.S. dollar, which puts downward pressure on other currencies. The equity markets also can't escape the impact of higher bond yields. Those higher yields compete for money that might otherwise get invested in the stock market. As yields surged in September, the S&P 500 fell about 4.5%, despite relatively positive economic data. Against this backdrop, consensus explanations for the bond market sell off have been focusing on technical drivers, like U.S. Treasury market supply and investor positioning adjustments, as well as fundamental drivers, like fiscal sustainability concerns, Bank of Japan policy changes and stronger than expected growth. What surprises us is that the Fed rarely enters the discussion, specifically its reactions to data and its subsequent forward guidance. But we do believe the Fed's involvement is one of the major drivers behind the current bond market rout. Without the Fed's more hawkish reaction to recent growth and inflation data, other technical and fundamental drivers would not have contributed as much to higher Treasury yields, in our view. As things stand, markets will need to continue to come to grips with interest rates staying high. The U.S. economy remains resilient, despite still elevated inflation. Our U.S. economist now thinks the Fed's December Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a live meeting. The September U.S. Consumer Price Index and payrolls data met our economists' bar for a potential additional hike later this year. And so these most recent data releases make the next round of monthly data even more important, as policymakers deliberate what to do in December. And these decisions by the Fed will continue to have a significant impact on the bond market. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.