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Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of yesterday's Australian federal election, which produced Labor's best result since 1943. We talk about the close seats, how multi-party politics is transforming local electorate contests and what is likely to happen in the Senate. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. You can listen to an ad-free version of this podcast if you sign up via Patreon for $8 or more per month. And $8 donors can now join the Tally Room Discord server.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to wrap up the results of yesterday's Western Australian state election, which was a third consecutive landslide victory for Labor. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. You can listen to an ad-free version of this podcast if you sign up via Patreon for $8 or more per month. And $8 donors can now join the Tally Room Discord server.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the federal redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. We discuss the process, what has been proposed, the political impact of those proposals and how it might affect preselections, and why some of the maps are drawn as they are. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. You can listen to an ad-free version of this podcast if you sign up via Patreon for $5 or more per month. This podcast is sponsored by Zencastr. Use my special link to save 30% off your first month of any Zencastr paid plan.
Ben was joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the Tasmanian state election. We run through the five state electorates one by one, and discuss what we'll be watching for on election night. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. This podcast is sponsored by Zencastr. Use my special link to save 30% off your first month of any Zencastr paid plan.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to recap the results of the Voice referendum. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined again by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss this weekend's federal by-election in the seat of Aston. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of the NSW state election. Poll Bludger live results page My thread looking at the history of embedding the NSW electoral system in the state constitution This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of the Victorian state election. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to wrap up the 2022 federal election. We discuss the undecided Senate races, the close House races, and the paths to victory for the Coalition and chances for future hung parliaments. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
The Government holds 10 of the 15 Lower House seats in WA. But the loss of Stirling through a redistribution and the retirement of two sitting MPs could signal a shift in it's fortunes.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss Saturday's by-elections in New South Wales, with a particular focus on how we analyse election results as increasing numbers of voters opt to use postal and pre-poll options. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to talk about all of the recent redistributions. For further reading: Liveblog of Victorian and WA federal redistributions Post with maps of Victorian and WA federal boundaries South Australian final redistribution New South Wales draft redistribution maps Population numbers for upcoming Victorian state redistribution Be sure to check out William's live results tool for the Tasmanian state election on Saturday night at the Poll Bludger. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe of the Poll Bludger to discuss Labor's massive landslide victory in yesterday's Western Australian state election, including running through each of the six upper house contests. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger and new guest Michael Maley, formerly of the Australian Electoral Commission, to talk all about redistributions: how they work now, how they used to work and how they have changed over time. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.
Ben is joined by William Bowe, the Poll Bludger, to discuss the results of the Eden-Monaro by-election. We then digressed into a discussion of the determination of entitlements of House of Representatives seats for each state, including the abolition of the Northern Territory's second seat and long-term trends for Victoria and Western Australia. Antony Green's blog post about how seats are allocated to Territories Journal article about electoral redistributions discussed by Ben
I'm joined by William Bowe from Poll Bludger to run through all of the electoral redistributions which have been conducted while we've all been thinking about other things this year: specifically Western Australia, the ACT, the Northern Territory, Brisbane City Council and the likely change in federal seat numbers in 2020. Ben's analysis of the draft WA boundaries William's margin estimates for the draft WA boundaries Ben's margin estimates for the final ACT boundaries Ben's analysis of the final NT boundaries Estimates of margins for final BCC boundaries Post about the change in seat entitlements for each state in House of Representatives
On 10 June, 2019 WA Fabians hosted, with support from CGM Communications, a 2019 Federal Election Analysis with presentations from William Bowe, Channel 9, ABC radio election and Crikey commentator and political blogger 'The Poll Bludger' as well as from Karen Luscombe of WA Opinion Poll. The PowerPoints can be downloaded from here: https://www.fabians.org.au/wa_fabians
Ben is joined by William Bowe and Elizabeth Humphrys to discuss anti-politics and election night - in particular what seats are worth watching and when you should expect results to come in. Thanks to 2SER radio in Sydney for the use of their studio.
Western Australia-based William Bowe, who runs The Poll Bludger website, says “there is a feeling that there is a Labor resurgence in the state”. Bowe told The Conversation a “floundering” state economy after the mining boom downturn, with falling house prices and rising unemployment, has created a sense that “prosperity has been lost. And that sense of downward mobility is very dangerous for the government”. “Because Western Australians are not feeling as prosperous, they are more receptive to a Labor message,” he said. On the Liberal seats in play, Bowe says Swan is the most vulnerable, followed by Hasluck. But Labor also has its eyes on the possible prizes of Pearce (held by Attorney-general Christian Porter) and Stirling (vacated by minister Michael Keenan). “There was a poll out a week ago that showed that it [Pearce] was line-ball. […] It’s certainly not the case that Christian Porter is gone for all money, but he has a fight on his hands and that’s not something that the Liberals are accustomed to in that electorate.” On the other side, the Liberals are targeting Anne Aly’s ultra-marginal seat of Cowan. “[The Liberals] have got a leader who I think goes down better in an electorate like Cowan,” Bowe said. But he’d be “very surprised” if the seat were in danger.
William Bowe, psephologist and editor of The Poll Bludger blog, joined us to talk about why micro-parties were elected to the Victorian Legislative Council with only a hand-full of votes. Chris Bowse, principal solicitor at the Whittlesea Legal Service, also joined us to discuss 'Expresso Legal', an innovative new project providing free outreach legal advice with free coffee.
Ben is joined by William Bowe and Georgia Tkachuk to discuss the Wentworth by-election and to begin discussing the Victorian state election. Ben's analysis of how preferences could decide Wentworth Latest published Wentworth poll The Tally Room guide to the Victorian state election
Ben is joined by the Poll Bludger, William Bowe, to discuss yesterday's by-elections in Longman, Braddon and Mayo. You can follow William on Twitter at @pollbludger or visit pollbludger.net
William Bowe @Pollbludger on#wapol #auspol election funding 15m10s
In our second podcast from the Western Australian election, we talk to Kim Beazley, especially about One Nation. Beazley was federal Labor leader during Pauline Hanson's first political phase. He sees her as a national security threat and believes she should be opposed in the strongest terms. “We [in WA] are probably more conscious of South-East Asia. We do more trade with South-East Asia … with Indonesia for example. There's a strong propensity here to look very seriously at Indonesia. Lots of West Australians holiday in Indonesia. … The positions she is adopting pose to seriously damage a critical security and economic relationship. I think quite a lot of West Australians understand that,” he said. “The rise of One Nation, to my mind, ought to be greeted in much the same way as we greeted [Hanson] back then - to see it disappear as quickly as possible.” In this podcast, we also visited Rockingham, south of Perth, where we found mixed views about One Nation and more than a little general disillusionment. Polling analyst William Bowe, who's been watching the One Nation phenomenon, says their campaign has been “a bit of a shambles”. “I guess the question in this election with respect to how well they're going to go is: how much does that matter?” “Given the sort of experience of Donald Trump's campaign last year, I think there's an idea that these sorts of populist movements can get away with a great deal.” Finally, Dexter Davies, federal senior vice-president of the Nationals and a former WA state MP, strongly defends the controversial Nationals' proposal for a mining tax on Rio Tinto and BHP, which has triggered a massive campaign from the mining companies.
Sportsbet's resident yankee Ed Wyatt and US politics tragic Oli Jones are joined by Crikey.com.au's William Bowe, otherwise known as The Poll Bludger, to go over the presidential race, the polls and any unearthed value in the markets. Is there a chance Donald Trump could win the election? Or is $1.18 fav Hillary unbeatable?
Battle On Saturday, Australians will finally go to the polls to decide who will lead the country after one of the longest election campaigns in recent history. But no matter which major party wins government, they look set to be sharing power – particularly in the Senate – with a range of new faces from the likes of Nick Xenophon’s and Jacqui Lambie’s political parties. So, which seats should we be following with interest on election night? And how have the major parties gone at selling their policies? University of Western Australia political analyst Natalie Mast sits down again with “Poll Bludger” William Bowe to talk about how the campaign has played out and what the polls are telling us about the likely result. Subscribe to The Conversation’s Speaking With podcasts on iTunes, or follow on Tunein Radio. Additional Audio: ABC - Lateline, “‘Poll Position’: Senator Nick Xenophon” Sydney Morning Herald, “Liberal launch, instability scare” Associated Press, “European Union referendum results announcement” NSW Nationals Party, “Not this time, Tony” Liberal Party of Australia (via Sydney Morning Herald), Campaign ad Australian Labor Party, “Chloe Shorten interviews Bill” Music Free Music Archive - Blue Dot Sessions Wisteria Free Music Archive - Blue Dot Sessions, When the guests have left Free Music Archive - Blue Dot Sessions, Bouncing Free Music Archive - Circus Marcus, “La tapa del dominigo” Free Music Archive - Dave Depper, “Wholesome 7” Natalie Mast is the Chair of The Conversation's Editorial Board.
AAP/Tracey NearmyIn this podcast, University of Western Australia political analyst Natalie Mast speaks with “Poll Bludger” William Bowe about the election campaign so far. The conversation focuses on the latest polling and whether there is evidence of a nationwide swing large enough to unseat the Coalition government. They touch on the possible impact state issues – particularly in Western Australia and South Australia – will have on the election. William also speaks about his recent modelling of possible outcomes for the Senate. The upper house is not only facing a double-dissolution election but a new method of voting. Subscribe to The Conversation’s Speaking With podcasts on iTunes, or follow on Tunein Radio. Additional Audio: Channel Ten, 1998 Australian Federal election coverage Channel Ten, Eyewitness Newsbyte 26 April 2016 Liberal Party of Australia, Our Plan for a Strong New Economy Youtube user: Voltscomissar, Adam Bandt victory speech in full. Re-elected MHR for Melbourne. Australian Electoral Commission, Senate voting education campaign Music Free Music Archive - Blue Dot Sessions Wisteria Free Music Archive - Blue Dot Sessions, When the guests have left Free Music Archive - Jon Luc Hefferman, “Analog” Free Music Archive - Circus Marcus, “La tapa del dominigo” Free Music Archive - Circus Marcus, “La tapa del sábado” Free Music Archive - Superbus, “Dramatic” Free Music Archive - Dave Depper, “Wholesome 7” Free Music Archive - Dave Depper, “Swagger 2” Natalie Mast is chair of The Conversation's editorial board.
Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie has campaigned strongly on local issues. Richard Wainwright/AAPThis Saturday’s Canning byelection has turned from being a poll on Tony Abbott to being a test of both new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Political analyst Natalie Mast spoke with “Poll Bludger” William Bowe about what Monday’s leadership spill will mean for the vote in Canning. Subscribe to The Conversation’s Speaking With podcasts on iTunes, or follow on Tunein Radio. Music: Free Music Archive/Blue Dot Sessions: Castro Additional audio: Channel 7 News, ABC News Natalie Mast is Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.