Podcasts about us elections

The Mike Lindell vs. Eric Coomer trial has reached a verdict. Mike Lindell and LindellTV, formerly known as FrankSpeech, were ordered to pay Eric Coomer $2.3 million out of the nearly $60 million Eric Coomer's lawyers initially sought. Next, Kash Patel took to X to reveal evidence that the CCP was involved in interfering with our elections through the production of fake IDs and ballots. Finally, tensions remain high between Iran and Israel, and Donald Trump is only adding to the mystery of where the United States stands in all this with some of his latest cryptic Truths. Are we headed to war, or is Donald Trump playing a level of chess we can't even imagine? We'll be answering all this and more on today's Untamed!  

FBI Says CCP Interfered In 2020 US Election, Plus MAGA Mega Divided Over How Trump Should Deal With Iran/Israel War

He dropped out of the presidential race last July, but the focus is now back on Joe Biden. The former US leader has not only been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, but a new book released this week has accused the White House of covering up a decline in his health before he stepped down to make way for Kamala Harris.  Today, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre on Biden's cancer diagnosis and why staying in the race for so long may have changed the course of history. Featured: Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre

On today's episode, we're sharing a panel discussion I moderated early this month at the Leadership Institute's ElectTech conference in San Francisco. It was an informative conversation about how technology can be used to provide scale alongside the more conversational tactics campaigns are embracing. Become a Friend of the Trend: https://campaigntrend.com/friends/Caroline Strom, Client Partner for US Elections, XBryan McPartlan, Sales Director, Prompt.ioScott Winn, COO, California Republican PartySubscribe on YouTube: Visit the Campaign Trend Website: Follow us on X Follow us on LinkedIn Subscribe to our Newsletter Become a Campaign Trend Insider

Mrs. Deborah Isaac is our special guest for the Israel Daily News. She's a passionate advocate for Jewish unity and the President of the American Zionist Movement. Her organization has been at the forefront of mobilizing Jewish voices globally. Under her leadership, they've spearheaded initiatives that connect Jewish youth with Israel, promote leadership development, and strengthen ties between Israel and the diaspora.Why is this interview so timely? We are gearing up for the 39th US Elections for the World Zionist Congress, which will determine representation in key bodies like the World Zionist Congress. The final day to get American votes in is coming up – that's May 4th.

In our latest interview, Silvia Suryodaya Grupp and Emilio Ortiz explore the significance of current 2024 astrological events, the concept of the great separation in consciousness, and the role of eclipses as portals for new beginnings. They discuss the importance of embracing both light and dark aspects of our emotions for personal transformation, the unique qualities of the new generation, and the connections with galactic beings such as the Pleiadians and the Yael. The conversation also touches on the energetic messages conveyed through crop circles and the potential for hybrid children to integrate into society. In this podcast, Silvia Suryodaya also explores themes of awakening, extraterrestrial / UFO contact, and the transformative energies influencing humanity. They discuss the lessons learned from the Atlanteans, the phases of integrating with galactic communities, and the significance of astrological insights in current events.Silvia Suryodaya helps others awaken their clairvoyance for spiritual guidance and deep fulfillment. It took her more than 40 years to understand who she really is. To understand and live her uniqueness, her multi-dimensionality and to choose what she creates and to choose wisely what she really wants to be. Today Silvia knows that her challenges in life have prepared her for the task: to be an ambassador between heaven and earth - medium and a teacher of wisdom - her life is a great mystery that opens bigger and bigger gates of understanding for her every day.___________________PODCAST CHAPTERS00:00 - Silvia Suryodaya Intro03:28 - The Great Separation and Splitting of Two Worlds05:16 - Connection Between the US Election and Cosmic Events06:23 - Spiritual Significance of Recent Eclipses07:47 - Embracing Light and Darkness in Spiritual Growth09:57 - Experiencing Grief and Healing Deep Wounds12:54 - Connecting with Dragons and Elemental Beings16:47 - First Contact with Galactic Races20:07 - Initiation by the Elves of Lyra21:27 - The Meaning of Spiritual Initiation26:04 - Recognizing Different Energetic Beings27:35 - Numerology and Star System Connection30:21 - Differences Between Life Path and Soul Numbers31:50 - The Twin Flame Connection and Self-Love36:11 - The Mystery of Crop Circles40:32 - Hybrid Species: Understanding the Yael41:58 - The Role of Hybrid Children in Earth's Future43:56 - A Vision of Future Communities with Star Beings44:35 - Avoiding the Mistakes of Ancient Atlantis 47:13 - First Contact with Pleiadians and Yael50:15 - Political and Astrological Energies in the US Election54:42 - Pluto Return and Financial Transformation in the US57:51 - Other Nations and Unions in the Collective Shift01:02:20 - Motivation and Mission in Spiritual Work01:04:01 - Light Language Transmission by Silvia01:13:03 - Female Connection to Lower Chakras01:13:33 - Greatest Lesson from Channeled Material___________________Guest: Silvia Suryodaya | Intuitive Channeler, Psychic, Medium ✦ Website | https://www.silvia-grupp.de/en/home-e...✦ Instagram |   / silvia_suryodaya  ✦ YouTube in English | ‪@suryodaya‬ ✦ YouTube in German | ‪@silviasuryodaya‬ ✦ Offerings & Courses | https://www.silvia-grupp.de/en/courses/✦ Silvia's Membership | https://www.silvia-grupp.de/en/member...✦ Access Silvia's Webinars | https://www.silvia-grupp.de/en/produk...Host: Emilio Ortiz✦ Instagram |   / iamemilioortiz  ✦ Subscribe to YouTube Channel | ‪@EmilioOrtiz‬ ✦ Watch Emilio's latest series on 4biddenknowledge TV l https://bit.ly/AwakenThe6thSense___________________© 2024 Emilio Ortiz. All rights reserved. Content from Just Tap In Podcast is protected under copyright law.Legal Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed by guests on Just Tap In are solely those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Emilio Ortiz or the Just Tap In Podcast. All content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice.

AP's Lisa Dwyer reports on a new ruling on some of President Trump's executive order on Elections.

Arunan Arulampalam ( @mayorarunan ) is the Mayor of Hartford (Connecticut).He joins Ara on this week's episode of #TheTamilCreator to discuss South Asian representation slowly growing in the politics, his parents' belief that “no one would vote for someone with the last name, Arulampalam” because of the world they inherited and overcoming these underdog odds, being the CEO of a non-profit before running for mayor, his passion for Hartford, the importance of faith and family in keeping him rooted, and so much more.Follow Arunan:- Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/mayorarunan/)   Timestamps00:19 - Ara introduces this week's guest, Arunan Arulampalam01:22 - Arunan's thoughts on how the 2025 US Elections played out03:34 - Arunan speaks on his childhood years; not realizing he'd end up in politics06:43 - Politics being less openly discussed in today's world07:09 - College, love, career, and family; Atlanta, LA, and Hartford08:43 - Why he loves Hartford; why you should visit10:16 - Being the CEO of a non-profit before running for mayor12:00 - His path to becoming mayor; beating the odds as an underdog15:47 - What he wants to accomplish during his time as mayor17:51 - His day-to-day as mayor; navigating a lack of time19:28 - How he manages his energy through work and familiar priorities21:20 - Family and faith dictating his decisions; staying humble23:35 - His biggest learning lessons since becoming mayor27:18 - What's the Tamil-community like in Hartford?29:25 - Advice he would give his 16-year-old self30:17 - The legacy he wants to be remembered for by friends and family30:51 - Creator Confessions35:36 - The Wrap UpIntro MusicProduced And Mixed By:- The Tamil Creator- YanchanWritten By:- Aravinthan Ehamparam- Yanchan Rajmohan    Support the show

Voters are heading to the polls in two special elections in Florida and Wisconsin. Florida's holding special elections for Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz's congressional seats and both seats are critical races for Republicans, given their slim majority in the House. The battleground state of Wisconsin is also voting on a new judge for the state's top court. It's become the most expensive judicial contest in US history, with more than $90 million being spent on campaigning, including $21 million by Elon Musk. Republican Strategist Matt Terrill told Mike Hosking while the Republicans are confident they'll win Florida, a different race is unfolding in Wisconsin. He says the outcome will send a signal as to where the pulse of the country is – if the Trump-backed candidate wins, it signals the strength of his mandate, but if the Democratic candidate wins, they'll have a point to rally behind. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AP correspondent Ben Thomas reports President Trump has signed a order seeking to overhaul U.S. elections.

Trump orders to revamp US elections, includes citizenship proof requirement for voter registration, Kunal Kamra gets over 500 threat calls amid Eknath Shinde joke row, seeks 1 week to appear before Mumbai Police, India, China discuss ‘early resumption' of cooperation, Sunil Gavaskar Questions Gautam Gambhir Over Champions Trophy 2025 Reward: "Not A Good Role Model?"

Rhayna Bosch speaks with Morgans Private Client Adviser Dianne Colledge about the day's share market action both locally and over in the US as shares rally in response to indications of a more targeted approach to reciprocal tariffs – plus Tesla shares clock their best day since the US federal election.

After rising in the wake of the US election, valuations of US small-cap stocks have marked a pause. Geoff Dailey, Head of US Equities, tells Chief Market Strategist Daniel Morris he expects the new US administration's focus on manufacturing in the US to boost market sentiment.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

These are times that call on a radical belief in oneself and their community. Back in October just shortly before the US Election, I interviewed Rev. Dr. Andrew Wilkes about his book Plenty Good Room, which invites the Black Church to think beyond electon cycles and go to the root of how it can be a radical force in not just American politics, but the wellbeing of all of us as Earthlings.Yeah, timely. Unfortunately, because of the recent US Election and regime change, it took me a minute to prepare this episode for you, but it's here now and ready. Plus, my beloved partner Les Henderson joins me for a moment of reflection on faith and will be joining me in our next few episodes.Here's Rev. Dr. Wilkes's bioReverend Andrew Wilkes, Ph.D., is a pastor, political scientist, writer, and contemplative. He is the co-lead, co-founding pastor of the Double Love Experience Church in Brooklyn, New York, and the former Executive Director of the Drum Major Institute, a social change organization founded by Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Dr. Wilkes is a 2022 inductee into the Martin Luther King Board of Preachers at Morehouse College and a proud alum of Hampton University, Princeton Theological Seminary, CUNY Graduate Center, and the Coro Public Affairs Fellowship. He is the author of Freedom Notes: Reflections on Faith, Justice, and the Possibility of Democracy; co-author of Psalms for Black Lives; and author of Plenty Good Room: Co-Creating an Economy of Enough for All. His writing and voice have been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post, Essence Magazine, Stanford Social Innovation Review, and Dr. Henry Louis Gates' PBS Gospel series. Dr. Wilkes is the elated husband of Rev. Dr. Gabby Cudjoe-Wilkes and lives in Brooklyn, New York.Watch PBS's The Black Church Herehttps://www.pbs.org/show/black-church/Read my recent newsletter spelling out the seven principles of Defying Gentrification (since i forgot to put them in the episodehttps://theblackurbanist.com/this-is-my-house-and-in-it-i-get-to-defy-gentrification-my-way-all-day-every-day/Purchase from Kristen's Bookshop.org store and support the podcast! And merch and crafting classes via www.kristpattern.comNever miss an episode, subscribe to our Substack , LinkedIn, Wordpress, or PattreonYou can also find Kristen @blackurbanist or @kristpattern.

Conventional wisdom says that a strong economy helps incumbents, while a weak economy hurts them. But new research from University of Chicago economist Lubos Pastor titled “Political Cycles and Stock Returns” challenges this idea, suggesting that economic downturns actually push voters toward Democrats, while economic booms favor Republicans.If true, this theory could explain decades of presidential elections—and even the stock market's historic tendency to perform better under Democratic administrations. But does the data back it up?

There were a lot of disappointments last fall. Of course, the course of the US Election was a big one, and naturally the interruption of service by the Internet Archive by hackers also really brought us down, because the episodes of our program we had been putting together and broadcasting (such as the one that […]

In this episode, Russ explains what to do on a covered call trade when you are wrong and trying to protect your shares and the stock takes off.  He uses what happened to Tesla since the US Election results as an example (the stock has gone up 85% since the election and we had written a $15 up covered call expiring in December 2024).  Russ discussed how you can roll out and up profitably when a stock gets away from you.  He discusses also how the adjustment works on selling a cash backed put option as well with Coinbase as an example.   Don't Forget to subscribe to the show!

In this final episode of the season, Samantha and Remoy tackle a question that's been at the heart of so many conversations lately: Are men truly lonely? It's a topic that hits home for so many of us, especially as we think about how gender norms shape not just our actions but our deepest connections.Luckily, The Pew Research Center has been hard at work exploring these very questions. Their latest report, Men, Women, and Social Connections, sheds light on the gendered trends shaping relationships in America today. Samantha had the chance to sit down with Kim Parker, one of the report's lead researchers, to dig into the findings. And in this episode, she brings all those insights back to Remoy. Samantha starts by asking Remoy a big question: How optimistic is he about life these days? Turns out, his answer puts him in the minority. Pew found that 58% of Americans lean optimistic, while 42% do not.Kim Parker shares the backstory behind this paper and how it fits into Pew's larger research initiative on gender and masculinity. It's all part of a broader effort to understand how Americans are thinking and feeling about these issues in real time.The big question: Are men lonelier than women? Samantha reveals the surprising (albeit nuanced) findings to Remoy, and the two dive into why this narrative about men and loneliness has taken hold.Pew's research uncovered fascinating details about men's and women's social networks. On the surface, they don't look that different. But dig deeper, and you find differences in how men and women use and interact with the people around them.Remoy gets candid about his own experiences, admitting that even with a great support system, reaching out for help as a man still feels like a major challenge.Samantha asks Kim about the connection between this report and Pew's earlier findings in How Americans See Men and Masculinity. Why do Americans say they want men to be more caring and vulnerable, yet men still struggle to seek support?The loneliness conversation takes an unexpected turn when Samantha reveals which group of people Pew identified as being lonelier than most. Spoiler: It involves the internet—and the way technology has become an inseparable part of their everyday lives.Samantha and Kim unpack how tech dependence can create unique barriers to connection, making it especially hard for this group to break out of loneliness.Finally, Samantha and Remoy reflect on the importance of self-care and taking a step back when needed. With everything happening in the world, it's a reminder we all need.Important Note: MASKulinity is taking a few months off to rest, recharge, and come back stronger than ever. We're so grateful to all of you who've joined us on this journey. Stay tuned for more powerful, curious stories about how masculinity shapes our world—and how we can reshape it together. See you soon!

In this episode we do a 2024 year review! We cover some of our personal experiences and breakthroughs, as well as events happening around the world that concern the ummah! All links to contact/contribute/follow us: http://www.mindheistpodcast.com The Shepherd's Way free chapter: https://www.theshepherdswaybook.com/free-chapter The Front Row waitlist: https://life-digital.typeform.com/to/sSbmk2If Join the Telegram group for MH listeners: https://t.me/+XOu4ggsyqRk3OWRk Sisters only group: https://t.me/mindheistsisters Find out about Ameen's projects: https://www.ameenomar.com Find out about Mohamed's projects: https://many.link/akhitweet Video version of the pod: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5ZvWFoIJNmQISsKE1PZB3d7KcpnEcJy7 Leave us a great review if you're enjoying the show too! Stay blessed!

George Ross was Executive Vice President in the Trump Organization where he was responsible for some of the largest projects undertaken. On today's show George is sharing his perspective on the upcoming second term with his former boss. Enjoy my conversation with George Ross. --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Watch the Full Episode for FREE: Kevin Shipp - Ex-CIA Officer Exposes The Deep State & Shocking Truths Of The Shadow Government | Brian Rose - London Real

Watch the Full Episode for FREE: Kevin Shipp - Ex-CIA Officer Exposes The Deep State & Shocking Truths Of The Shadow Government | Brian Rose - London Real

Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden's foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won't) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration's most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia's invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it's imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.Host: Ian BremmerGuest: Jake Sullivan Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Watch the Full Episode for FREE: Judge Joe Brown Exposes The Truth About Trump, Corruption & The Media's Lies | Brian Rose - London Real

Watch the Full Episode for FREE: Mike Benz - Trump's War On Censorship Revealed: Hit Plan To End Big Tech Control & Restore Free Speech For All | Brian Rose - London Real

Watch the Full Episode for FREE: Mike Benz - Trump's War On Censorship Revealed: Hit Plan To End Big Tech Control & Restore Free Speech For All | Brian Rose - London Real

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus.00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally?06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 712:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors14:28 What to take away from the conversation15:18 Closing commentsWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Anton Jäger, historian of political thought, returns to the program to speak with Danny about "the big picture" in the wake of the US election. They discuss the crisis of liberalism, the state of the left, where capital is in its own historical cycle, how the reactions to this election compare with that of 2016, hyperpolitics, empire, the view from Europe, and more. Read Anton's latest piece in New Left Review, "Hyperpolitics in America". Further reading: Adam Tooze, "The Democrats' Defeat", The London Review of Books Subscribe now and listen to our episode with Anton on hyperpolitics from last year.

While the market waits for the incoming Trump administration to present its policy agenda, our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research Michael Zezas maps out some areas of early investor interest, including regulation and the US Treasury market.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Today on the podcast we'll be talking about key themes coming out of the US election.It's Thursday, Nov 14 at 10am in New York.The US election is over, and now the work begins for President Trump and Republican leaders in Congress. They'll continue to focus in the coming weeks on staffing key roles in the government and fleshing out the policy agenda. When it comes to the economic and markets outlook for 2025, those details will matter a lot – particularly the sequencing and severity of changes to tariffs, immigration, and tax policy. That means for us the next few weeks will be key to learning what next year will look like. But there are still some areas where there's already some signal for investors to lean on. One is in the financial sector and relates to regulation. A potentially delayed or diluted approach to bank regulation resulting from the policies of the new administration is one reason that our Banks Analyst Betsy Graseck is flagging a more bullish outcome and substantial outperformance potential for the sector. Similarly, our global head of credit research, Andrew Sheets, notes this election outcome should boost M&A activity, where an expected 50 percent pick-up in volumes next year could reach 75 percent or more. Another area is industrials, a sector where companies tend to spend a lot on capital. The Republican sweep substantially increases the chances that key tax benefits reducing the cost of capital expenditures are extended in a timely fashion. And in the U.S. treasury market, there's signs that the most volatile part of the increase in yields is behind us. While it's true that extending expiring tax cuts means deficits will be higher next year than they otherwise would have been, it's basically just an extension of current policy – so any incremental impact to growth and inflation expectations being priced into this market is still an open question. This should be helpful to fixed income markets finding their footing into year end. But, as we started off with, there's a lot to be learned in the coming weeks, and we'll flag here what you need to know and how it may impact the direction of markets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This Week Grace and Mamrie discuss the aftermath of the US Election, Grace's Stand-up show, updates on Critter Corner and the drama around the World Conker Championships controversy. Go to http://shopify.com/weird to sign up for a $1-per-month trial period. Go to http://audible.com/TMGW or text TMGW to 500-500 to try Audible free for 30 days Go to http://uncommongoods.com/weird to get 15% off your next gift. Try Huel with 15% off today using code TMGW15 at http://my.huel.com/TMGW15. Fuel your best performance with Huel today! Go to http://lumedeodorant.com and use code TMGW to get 15% off your first purchase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For those of you who follow me on Instagram, you may have seen the post I made on the morning of the US Election last week, long before the results were known. That post was about finding a positive way to move forward, no matter who won.  Not surprisingly, it generated many comments and reactions, some positive and some negative, which is to be expected with any presidential election—especially this one. Now that the election is over, and whether you are celebrating or mourning the results, I want to offer an empowering perspective on how we can accept reality exactly as it is, take personal responsibility for our lives, and move forward effectively.  The only way I know how is by accepting reality exactly as it is and focusing on the things that are within our control. What other choice do you have? While politicians create policies, they don't control your growth, your relationships, or your mindset. Only you have that power.  So, I invite you to take a deep breath… and listen to this episode with an open heart and an open mind. I love you so much, and I sincerely hope today's episode leaves you feeling at peace with the things you cannot change and empowered to focus your energy on the things that you can control.  KEY TAKEAWAYS We all have more in common than we think Focusing on things outside of our control prevents us from moving forward The most important choice we make is how we show up each day Taking full ownership of your life is the first step to real change. Get The Full Show Notes To get full access to today's show notes, including audio, transcript, and links to all the resources mentioned, visit MiracleMorning.com/560 Subscribe, Rate & Review I would love if you could subscribe to the podcast and leave an honest rating & review. This will encourage other people to listen and allow us to grow as a community. The bigger we get as a community, the bigger the impact we can have on the world. To subscribe, rate, and review the podcast on iTunes, visit HalElrod.com/iTunes. Connect with Hal Elrod Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube   Copyright © 2024 Miracle Morning, LP and International Literary Properties LLC

As President-Elect Trump's new administration takes shape, all eyes are on fiscal policy that may follow. Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter uses the United Kingdom's recent election as a guide for how markets could react to a policy shift in the US. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist, and today I'll be talking about the US election and fiscal policy and what lessons we might be able to draw from the fiscal experience in the UK. It's Wednesday, November 13th at 10am in New York. In a lot of our recent research, the US election has figured prominently, and we highlighted three key policy dimensions that the US administration is going to have to confront. Immigration, tariffs, and, of course, fiscal policy. We're going to keep elections as a theme, but it might be useful to draw some comparisons to the UK to see what lessons we might have for the US. We think the experience in the UK, which recently proposed a new fiscal budget months after an election, is relevant mostly because of the time between taking power and the budget being presented. While markets are in the business of anticipating changes, the process of actually creating policy is a lot more cumbersome and time consuming. In this week, where we've seen lots of expectations already being priced in, it's probably useful to try to think about that process of forming policy in the UK and see what lessons it implies for the US. Back in May, the UK elected a new government, changing party control after 14 years. A key moment for markets came just over a week ago, though, when the new government's presentation of their budget for the next fiscal year came up. Now, we should remember, the trust government had faced a market test when the announcement of their budget proposals led to a big sell off in interest rates. As a result, markets were keenly attuned this time to the new labor government's budget, particularly because the US fiscal position requires a primary balance to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. And in particular, when their debt costs rise, when interest rates go up, the primary balances that are needed keep increasing if they want to keep the debt stable. Now, the new labor government proposed to fill a funding gap through tax increases while simultaneously increasing Government investment spending. To manage some of the communication challenges here, many of these proposals, especially about the tax increases, they were made public in advance. The likelihood of additional government spending was also well known, and UK rates had moved higher for months leading up to the formal presentation of the budget. But, markets reacted on the day of the budget reveal, despite all of that prelude. The degree of front loading of the investment spending was seen as a surprise in markets, as was the Office of Budget Responsibility's concurrent assessment that the policy would lead to higher growth, higher inflation, and as a result, a need for higher interest rates. Now, conversations with clients have brought up the similarities of the US and the UK. US interest costs are steadily rising as the cost of the debt reprices to the current yield curve. And, over time, the ratio of interest expense on the debt relative to, say, the GDP of the country, well, that's going to continue to rise as well, and it will very soon eclipse its previous all time high. So, fiscal consolidation would be needed in the United States if we really want to see a stabilized debt to GDP ratio. Markets will need to assess the credibility of fiscal policy and the scrutiny will increase the higher the interest burden gets. The budget process for the US is much less clear cut than that in the UK and deliberations and debates will likely happen over most of 2025. And there's an additional question of how much revenue tariffs might be able to generate on a sustained basis. History suggests that trade diversion tends to limit those revenue gains. All of these facts taken together suggest that the outlook for US fiscal policy will continue to evolve for quite some time. Well, thanks for listening, and if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share thoughts on the market with a friend or a colleague today.

Francis Northwood joins us to discuss his new Baffler article titles "Unsafe Bets - Polymarket's great expectations". Check out Francis' article :https://thebaffler.com/latest/unsafe-bets-northwood

President Trump plans a sharp change of directionThe US elections last week are set to transform the energy landscape, with the Republicans now in control of the presidency, the Senate, and likely the House of Representatives. They intend to set a new direction for energy policy, emphasising affordability and reliability over sustainability and climate. In this special episode of The Energy Gang, we explore what this shift means for the American energy sector and the potential implications for both domestic and global markets. Host Ed Crooks is joined Amy Myers Jaffe, Director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University; Robbie Orvis, Senior Director at the think-tank Energy Innovation, and a new voice on the show: Ray Long, President and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). Their discussion gives a preview of what we can expect over the next four years. They debate how a new set of priorities in Washington will affect low-carbon energy sectors including wind, solar and storage, as well as carbon capture, hydrogen, and nuclear energy. What will happen to the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits, which are crucial to the outlook for renewables? How will national security policy and the rise of artificial intelligence shape the new administration's thinking. What is the outlook for the US vehicle industry as Chinese EV sales boom? And how could President-elect Trump's tariff plans affect all energy sectors, both low-carbon and high-carbon? Tune in for answers to all these questions, and to gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving energy policy landscape. As negotiators gather for the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku this week, the future of the US under a new administration is going to be top of mind for everyone.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Podcast#419: Pakistan suicide bombing, US election aftermath, NBA all-star buys sex doll of ex-wife by BK

Welcome to Friday MK, where Luke and Brian bring you the best reactions, in-depth breakdowns, and expert predictions on all things combat sports! In today's episode, we're previewing a packed weekend of fights, including UFC Apex, ONE Championship, and a star-studded boxing weekend. Plus, we dive deep into the ongoing Conor McGregor civil trial and Dana White's comments on UFC's business ties with politics in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.  The UFC Apex card is headlined by a high-stakes welterweight battle between veteran Neil Magny and rising star Carlos Prates. Will Magny, the underdog, continue to defy expectations, or will Prates make a statement in his second UFC outing? We also break down the Reiner de Ridder vs. Gerald Meerschaert middleweight clash, with de Ridder making his long-awaited return to 185 pounds after a six-year hiatus. ONE Championship 169 brings the heavyweight fireworks with Anatoly Malykhin facing off against the explosive Reug Reug. But the drama doesn't stop there—Rodtang, the Muay Thai sensation, missed weight for his flyweight bout and was forced to vacate his title, adding extra chaos to the card.  It's a monster weekend for boxing fans with multiple big cards across the globe, as rising stars Keyshawn Davis and Jaron Ennis headline separate cards.   Lastly, the guys provide the latest developments in the Conor McGregor civil trial and discuss the legal ramifications for McGregor as it continues. They also react to the Donald Trump winning the US Election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to Friday MK, where Luke and Brian bring you the best reactions, in-depth breakdowns, and expert predictions on all things combat sports! In today's episode, we're previewing a packed weekend of fights, including UFC Apex, ONE Championship, and a star-studded boxing weekend. Plus, we dive deep into the ongoing Conor McGregor civil trial and Dana White's comments on UFC's business ties with politics in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The UFC Apex card is headlined by a high-stakes welterweight battle between veteran Neil Magny and rising star Carlos Prates. Will Magny, the underdog, continue to defy expectations, or will Prates make a statement in his second UFC outing? We also break down the Reiner de Ridder vs. Gerald Meerschaert middleweight clash, with de Ridder making his long-awaited return to 185 pounds after a six-year hiatus. ONE Championship 169 brings the heavyweight fireworks with Anatoly Malykhin facing off against the explosive Reug Reug. But the drama doesn't stop there—Rodtang, the Muay Thai sensation, missed weight for his flyweight bout and was forced to vacate his title, adding extra chaos to the card. It's a monster weekend for boxing fans with multiple big cards across the globe, as rising stars Keyshawn Davis and Jaron Ennis headline separate cards.  Lastly, the guys provide the latest developments in the Conor McGregor civil trial and discuss the legal ramifications for McGregor as it continues. They also react to the Donald Trump winning the US Election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets provides an overview of uncertainty around policy following the election of a Republican administration.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the US election - the implications in the past, present and future. It's Friday, November 8th at 2pm in London. The US Election is over, and the result was relatively clear. Republicans won control of the Presidency, the Senate, and on current projections, are likely to narrowly take the House of Representatives. The so-called ‘sweep' will provide significant leeway to enact policy. There is going to be lots of time over future weeks and months, and even years, to discuss what all of this is going to mean. But for now, I want to offer a few thoughts on the impact across the past, the present and the future. Looking back, the US election has been a very well-known uncertainty that has hung over this market all year. The polling was close between two candidates with very different policy priorities. To the extent the simply not knowing was holding some investors back, or that investors were worried about a contested outcome, or even worse, political unrest – that issue has now passed. The relief from that passing may help explain some of the recent positive market reaction. For the present, we now sit in this curious middle-place where the uncertainty of the result is behind us, but any uncertainty from policy changes have not yet arrived. Coupled with still strong US economic data, another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve yesterday, and the tendency of markets to perform well in November and December, and the path of least resistance in the near term may be for markets to continue to trade well.The future, however, may have just become less certain. Credit likes moderation and stability, and we think the current economic mix, with US GDP growth and inflation at both around 2.5 per cent, while the unemployment rate sits near historic lows at 4.2 per cent, has been a good one for credit. It's been a major driver of our optimistic spread forecasts this year. Yet based on exit polls, US voters were not happy with this economy, and voted for change. The question, which will now dominate investor conversations, is how much of what the new administration has said they will do, will end up happening – on everything from tariffs, to taxes, to immigration. I can assure you that there's a very wide investor expectations around this. The ambiguity isn't necessarily a problem now, but we expect these questions to harden as we get into early next year. And given the likely sweep, the odds for larger changes in policy, especially much looser fiscal policy, have risen significantly. Whatever your average expectation for the US economy over the next 24 months now is, we think the bands around that have widened, and that's also true globally, from Latin America, to Europe, to Asia. To be a little more specific about these wider bands: To the downside, there are now scenarios where tariffs and deportations push up inflation and weaken growth. And to the upside, there are scenarios where potentially lower taxes and looser regulation could drive higher stock markets and more corporate animal spirits. But for credit, both of these present challenges: tight spreads are absolutely not priced for stagflation, while animal spirits and more corporate aggression aren't necessarily a great story if you're a lender. A more benign, middle scenario is, of course, still possible, and we're keeping an open mind. But the future has now become more uncertain. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Timecodes: 0:00 Start 00:20 Donald Trump Wins the 2024 US Election 43:31 Elon Musk's victory lap 52:45 Speak No Evil 58:21 Lioness and From 01:19:57 Dominos Sauce Order 01:25:00 Thanksgiving and gift giving 01:41:46 Video Voicemails 02:03:56 Pete Holmes Interview LINKS: 31:34 Jake Tapper "literally none" video: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/holy-smokes-literally-nothing-cnn-anchor-jake-tappers-reaction-on-election-night-viral/articleshow/115025346.cms 02:32:16 Robert Deniro Deepfake:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHSTWepkp_M 02:33:11 Tom Hanks AI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_id-SkGU2k +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Presented by Jackpocket: New customers, use code KFC and you'll get your first ticket free at https://jackpocket.onelink.me/sY17/KFC GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, NY Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY. 18 or older (19+ in Nebraska, 21+ in Arizona). Void where prohibited. Promo code required for $2 non-withdrawable credit. Prize amount may differ at time of drawing. Terms jackpocket.com/tos/free-ticket-promo/ BlueChew: Get your first month free with code KFC at https://bluechew.com Hello Fresh: Get 10 FREE meals at https://HelloFresh.com/freekfc. Applied across 7 boxes, new subscribers only, varies by plan. Draft Kings: Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code KFC. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 11/17/24 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.You can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/kfcr

Day 989.Today, as the White House seeks to send Ukraine as much as it can before Trump's inauguration, we discuss the potential appointments the president-elect might make, and – later – hear about the mood near the frontlines to the political earthquake. Contributors:Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.Jonah Goldberg (Editor-in-Chief, The Dispatch). @JonahDispatch on X.Adrian Simpson (of Mission Ukraine). AdrianSimp85802 on X.Dr Claudia Major (German Institute of International and Security Affairs). @SWPBerlin on X.Mission UkraineYou can learn more about the volunteer organisation here:https://www.missionukraine.uk/Content Referenced:Trump's victory means Europe has no choice but to arm – and fast (Francis in The Telegraph)https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/07/donald-trump-victory-europe-now-has-two-months-save-ukraine/Biden team prepares to rush last-minute aid to Ukraine (Politico)https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/biden-trump-ukraine-assistance-00187897Trump win casts fresh doubts over Wall Street's China strategy (Reuters)https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-win-casts-fresh-doubts-over-wall-streets-china-strategy-2024-11-07/Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatestEmail: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.ukHosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US Election Special: What we know so far. Donald Trump is projected to have won Georgia and North Carolina - two of the seven swing seats that will determine the outcome of the US presidential election.

Russian mafia expert Olga Lautman joins Gaslit Nation to break down the Kremlin's plan for America: stirring up civil war. Russia is hoping to kick our already chaotic political circus into overdrive, but here's the twist that the Kremlin—along with many white male pundits—completely missed: women across the political spectrum are furious.  Whether it's the GOP's authoritarian fantasies, including femicide, or the media's endless obsession ignoring women's humanity, women in every state across America are punching Nazis in the ballot box, driving out a historic early vote. Later in the week, look out for the Gaslit Nation Election 2024 Super Special, featuring Terrell Starr of the Black Diplomats Podcast and Substack. It will include this week's bonus show, available to Patreon subscribers at the Truth-teller ($5/month) tier and higher. On Monday at 4pm ET, we're having another political salon over Zoom to brace for the impact of MAGA trying to steal our election with Russia's help, either through Mike Johnson, the failed legal architect of Trump's Big Lie, or the MAGA majority on the Supreme Court, should the electoral college come down to one state. Or else, we're celebrating with a Gaslit Nation virtual block party! Either way, to our Patreon community that keeps the show going, see you on Monday, for whatever comes next.  Want to enjoy Gaslit Nation ad-free? Join our community of listeners for bonus shows, ad-free episodes, exclusive Q&A sessions, our Victory group chat, invites to live events, and more! Sign up at Patreon.com/Gaslit!   Show Notes:   Clip: Anne Selzer on her Iowa polling: https://x.com/PettyLupone/status/1853169502147449005   Clip: Larry Krasner, Philadelphia DA on election terrorism: https://x.com/abughazalehkat/status/1853631034790662312   Clip: John Jackson, American veteran in Ukraine: “My brief message to Americans voting today. From Ukraine, the epicenter of that struggle between good and evil, between democracy and dictatorship. Please lend me 90 seconds of your time:”  https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1853802605509501029   Narrowing nationwide polls reveal a coin-toss for the House majority https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/house   Recent safeguards should quash efforts to overturn election results, experts say It would take congressional majorities and most swing-state legislatures to upend the election. https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/11/04/recent-safeguards-should-quash-efforts-to-overturn-election-results-experts-say/   Man Arrested and Charged with Attempting to Use a Weapon of Mass Destruction and to Destroy an Energy Facility in Nashville https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-arrested-and-charged-attempting-use-weapon-mass-destruction-and-destroy-energy-facility   Man arrested after federal officials say he sought to destroy Nashville power site https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-arrested-federal-officials-sought-004723571.html   Robert Reich on Mastodon: “If Harris wins, will Congress certify the results? There are now 172 election deniers in Congress. But the new Congress gets sworn in before the presidential election is certified. Your down ballot votes could decide whether your presidential vote is respected or discarded.” https://mastodon.social/@rbreich@masto.ai/113429039266528054   The Kingdom of Lyz Lenz's God Land Is Within You https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/in-god-land-lyz-lenz-makes-the-case-for-nuance.html   Andrea Chalupa on Twitter: “The Reagan Revolution ignited a culture of “greed is good," alongside the rise of Christian nationalism. Democrats, for their part, embraced this shift, allowing unions to weaken and newsrooms to erode, all in the name of boosting corporate profits. As a result, Trump and Manafort's brand of corruption thrived in plain sight. Throughout American history, progress for Black people has been met with violent white rage, and Trump's birtherism was the inevitable response to the first Black president. Meanwhile, Russia's support for Trump wasn't just about sowing chaos in U.S. politics; it was part of a broader geopolitical strategy to lift sanctions and advance their long-standing imperial ambitions, which have been unfolding since Russia invaded Georgia. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is merely the latest chapter of rising Russian imperialism. All of this is compounded by the deep, structural misogyny and racism in America, a nation built on genocide that persists to this day with the prison industrial complex and the epidemic of violence against Native American women. These forces are not isolated—they are interconnected, fueling each other in a dangerous cycle. The gasoline on that fire is unchecked social media as well as Silicon Valley greed. What's left of newsrooms are populated by white men who aren't sensitive to most of these issues since they're blinded by their own privilege.” https://x.com/AndreaChalupa/status/1853788934393766019   Jimmy Kimmel Surprised That Bombshell Jeffrey Epstein Tapes About Trump Friendship Aren't Getting More Attention https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/jimmy-kimmel-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-trump-friendship-1236200783/   Clip: Wil I Am “Yes She Can” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lR1rxxIYa-w

Day 988.Today, as Ukraine hits a Russian naval base on the Caspian Sea and North Korean troops enter combat for the first time, we examine the fallout from the US presidential election and ask: is Donald Trump the best thing that's ever happened to NATO?Contributors:Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.Adam Kinzinger (Former Republican Congressman, now senior political commentator at CNN) @AdamKinzinger on X.Dr Dalibor Rohac (American Enterprise Institute Fellow & Eastern Europe expert) @DaliborRohac on X.Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatestEmail: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.ukHosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

#NewWorldReport:  What Latin America capitals are watching the US election closely AND WHY?  Joseph Humire @JMHumire @SecureFreeSoc. Ernesto Araujo, Former Foreign Minister Republic of Brazil. #NewWorldReportHumire 1878 Nicaragua

Day 987.Today, as Ukraine, and the world, waits with bated breath for the results of the US presidential election, we look at the situation on the battlefield as Moscow seeks to strengthen its foothold, and hear more about how ordinary Russians view the war.Contributors:Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.James Kilner (Moscow Desk). @jkjourno on X.Content referenced:'To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine' (100+ Experts' Letter):https://www.democratic-strategy.net/_files/ugd/dcfff6_bc38b0fbac1b473bb5b0989446c08f67.pdfChina's Xi Jinping poses as hunky Putin sidekick in FSB calendar (The Telegraph):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/01/chinas-xi-jinping-poses-hunky-putins-sidekick-calendar/ Instruction manual for digging mass graves given to Russian troops (The Telegraph):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/03/instruction-manual-digging-mass-graves-russian-troops/Google Maps ‘reveals location' of secret Ukrainian military positions (The Telegraph):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/03/instruction-manual-digging-mass-graves-russian-troops/Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes (Wall Street Journal)https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-plot-us-planes-incendiary-devices-de3b8c0aStolen Cheese! (BBC)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygw9ye90poSubscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatestEmail: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the eve of a competitive US election, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist joins our head of Corporate Credit Research and Chief Fixed Income Strategist to asses how investors are preparing for each possible outcome of the race.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist.Andrew Sheets: I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Mike Wilson: Today on the show, the day before the US election, we're going to do a conversation with my colleagues about what we're watching out for in the markets.It's Monday, November 4th, at 1130am in New York.So let's get after it.Andrew Sheets: Well, Mike, like you said, it's the day before the US election. The campaign is going down to the wire and the polling looks very close. Which means both it could be a while before we know the results and a lot of different potential outcomes are still in play. So it would be great to just start with a high-level overview of how you're thinking about the different outcomes.So, first Mike, to you, as you think across some of the broad different scenarios that we could see post election, what do you think are some of the most important takeaways for how markets might react?Mike Wilson: Yeah, thanks, Andrew. I mean, it's hard to, you know, consider oneself as an expert in these types of events, which are extremely hard to predict. And there's a lot of permutations, by the way. There's obviously the presidential election, but then of course there's congressional elections. And it's the combination of all those that then feed into policy, which could be immediate or longer lasting.So, the other thing to just keep in mind is that, you know, markets tend to pre-trade events like this. I mean, this is a known date, right? A known kind of event. It's not a surprise. And the outcome is a surprise. So people are making investments based on how they think the outcome is going to come. So that's the way we think about it now.Clearly, you know, treasury markets have sold off. Some of that's better economic data, as our strategists in fixed income have told us. But I think it's also this view that, you know, Trump presidency, particularly Republican sweep, may lead to more spending or bigger budget deficits. And so, term premium has widened out a bit, so that's been an area; here I think you could get some reversion if Harris were to win.And that has impact on the equity markets -- whether that's some maybe small cap stocks or financials; some of the, you know, names that are levered to industrial spending that they want to do from a traditional energy standpoint.And then, of course, on the negative side, you know, a lot of consumer-oriented stocks have suffered because of fears about tariffs increasing along with renewables. Because of the view that, you know, the IRA would be pared back or even repealed.And I think there's still follow through particularly in financials. So, if Trump were to win, with a Republican Congress, I think, you know, financials could see some follow through. I think you could see some more strength in small caps because of perhaps animal spirits increasing a little further; a bit of a blow off move, perhaps, in the indices.And then, of course, if Harris wins, I would expect, perhaps, bonds to rally. I think you might see some of these, you know, micro trades like in financials give back some along with small caps. And then you'd see a big rally in the renewables. And some of the tariff losers that have suffered recently. So, there's a lot, there's a lot of opportunity, depending on the outcome tomorrow.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, as you think about these outcomes for fixed income, what really stands out to you?Vishy Tirupattur: I think what is important, Andrew, is really to think about what's happening today in the macro context, related to what was happening in 2016. So, if you look at 2016; and people are too quick to turn to the 2016 playbook and look at, you know, what a potential Trump, win would mean to the rates markets.I think we should keep in mind that going into the polls in 2016, the market was expecting a 30 basis points of rate hikes over the next 12 months. And that rate hike expectation transitioned into something like a 125 place basis points over the following 12 months. And where we are today is very different.We are looking at a[n] expectation of a 130-135 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months. So what that means to me is underlying macroeconomic conditions in where the economy is, where monetary policy is very, very different. So, we should not expect the same reaction in the markets, whether it's a micro or macro -- similar to what happened in 2016.So that's the first point. The second thing I want to; I'm really focused on is – if it is a Harris win, it's more of a policy continuity. And if it's a Trump win, there is going to be significant policy changes. But in thinking about those policy changes, you know, before we leap into deficit expansion, et cetera, we need to think in terms of the sequencing of the policy and what is really doable.You know, we're thinking three buckets. I think in terms of changes to immigration policy, changes to tariff policy, and changes to tax code. Of these things, the thing that requires no congressional approval is the changes to tariff policy, and the tariffs are probably are going to be much more front loaded compared to immigration. Or certainly the tax policy [is] going to take a quite a bit of time for it to work out – even under the Republican sweep scenario.So, the sequencing of even the tariff policy, the effect of the tariffs really depends upon the sequencing of tariffs itself. Do we get to the 60 per cent China tariffs off the bat? Or will that be built over time? Are we looking at across the board, 10 per cent tariffs? Or are we looking at it in much more sequential terms? So, I would be careful not to jump into any knee-jerk reaction to any outcome.Andrew Sheets: So, Mike, the next question I wanted to ask you is – you've been obviously having a lot of conversations with investors around this topic. And so, is there a piece of kind of conventional wisdom around the election or how markets will react to the election that you find yourself disagreeing with the most?Mike Wilson: Well, I don't think there's any standard reaction function because, as Vishy said -- depending on when the election's occurring, it's a very different setup. And I will go back to what he was saying on 2016. I remember in 2016, thinking after Trump won, which was a surprise to the markets, that was a reflationary trade that we were very bullish on because there was so much slack in the economy.We had borrowing capabilities and we hadn't done any tax cuts yet. So, there was just; there was a lot of running room to kind of push that envelope.If we start pushing the envelope further on spending or reflationary type policies, all of a sudden the Fed probably can't cut. And that changes the dynamics in the bond market. It changes the dynamics in the stock market from a valuation standpoint, for sure. We've really priced in this like, kind of glide path now on, on Fed policy, which will be kind of turned upside down if we try to reflate things.Andrew Sheets: So Vishy, that's a great point because, you know, I imagine something that investors do ask a lot about towards the bond market is, you know, we see these yields rising. Are they rising for kind of good reasons because the economy is better? Are they rising for less good reasons, maybe because inflation's higher or the deficit's widening too much? How do you think about that issue of the rise in bond yields? At what point is it rising for kind of less healthy reasons?Vishy Tirupattur: So Andrew, if you look back to the last 30 days or so, the reaction the Treasury yields is mostly on account of stronger data. Not to say that the expectation changes about the presidential election outcomes haven't played a role. They have. But we've had really strong data. You know, we can ignore the data from last Friday – because the employment data that we got last Friday was affected by hurricanes and strikes, etc. But take that out of the picture. The data has been very strong. So, it's really a reflection of both of them. But we think stronger data have played a bigger role in yield rise than electoral outcome expectation changes.Andrew Sheets: Mike, maybe to take that question and throw it back to you, as you think about this issue of the rise in yields – and at what point they're a problem for the equity market. How are you thinking about that?Mike Wilson: Well, I think there's two ways to think about it. Number one, if it really is about the data getting better, then all of a sudden, you know, maybe the multiple expansion we've seen is right. And that, it's sort of foretelling of an earnings growth picture next year that's, you know, much faster than what, the consensus is modeling.However, I'd push back on that because the consensus already is modeling a pretty good growth trajectory of about 12 per cent earnings growth. And that's, you know, quite healthy. I think, you know, it's probably more mixed. I mean, the term premium has gone up by 50 basis points, so some of this is about fiscal sustainability – no matter who wins, by the way. I wouldn't say either party has done a very good stewardship of, you know, monitoring the fiscal deficits; and I think some of it is definitely part of that. And then, look, I mean, this is what happened last year where, you know, we get financial conditions loosened up so much that inflation comes back. And then the Fed can't cut.So to me, you know, we're right there and we've written about this extensively. We're right around the 200-day moving average for 10-year yields. The term premium now is up about 50 basis points. There's not a lot of wiggle room now. Stock market did trade poorly last week as we went through those levels. So, I think if rates go up another 10 or 20 basis points post the election, no matter who wins and it's driven at least half by term premium, I think the equity market's not gonna like that.If rates kind of stay right around in here and we see term premium stabilize, or even come down because people get more excited about growth -- well then, we can probably rally a bit. So it's much a reason of why rates are going up as much as how much they're going up for the impact on equity multiples.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, how are you thinking about credit markets against this background?Andrew Sheets: Yeah, so I think a few things are important for credit. So first is I do think credit is a[n] asset class that likes moderation. And so, I think outcomes that are likely to deliver much larger changes in economic, domestic, foreign policy are worse for credit. I mean, I think that the current status quo is quite helpful to credit given we're trading at some of the tightest spreads in the last 20 years. So, I think the less that changes around that for the macro backdrop for credit, the better.I think secondly, you know, if I -- and Mike correct me, if you think I'm phrasing this wrong. But I think kind of some of the upside case that people make, that investors make for equities in the Republican sweep scenario is some version of kind of an animal spirits case; that you'll see lower taxes, less regulation, more corporate risk taking higher corporate confidence. That might be good for the equity market, but usually greater animal spirits are not good for the credit market. That higher level of risk taking is often not as good for the lenders. So, there are scenarios that you could get outcomes that might be, you know, positive for equities that would not be positive for credit.And then I think conversely, in say the event of a democratic sweep or in the scenarios where Harris wins, I do think the market would probably see those as potentially, you know, the lower vol events – as they're probably most similar to the status quo. And again, I think that vol suppression that might be helpful to credit; that might be helpful for things like mortgages that credit is compared to. And so, I think that's also kind of important for how we're thinking about it.To both Mike and Vishy, to round out the episode, as we mentioned, the race is close. We might not know the outcome immediately. As you're going to be looking at the news and the markets over Tuesday evening, into Wednesday morning. What's your process? How closely do you follow the events? What are you going to be focused on and what are kind of the pitfalls that you're trying to avoid?Maybe Vishy, I'll start with you.Vishy Tirupattur: I think the first thing I'd like to avoid is – do not make any market conclusions based on the first initial set of data. This is going to be a somewhat drawn out; maybe not as drawn out as last time around in 2020. But it is probably unlikely, but we will know the outcome on Tuesday night as we did in 2016.So, hurry up and wait as my colleague, Michael Zezas puts it.Mike Wilson: And I'm going to take the view, which I think most clients have taken over the last, you know, really several months, which is -- price is your best analyst, sadly. And I think a lot of people are going to do the same thing, right? So, we're all going to watch price to see kind of, ‘Okay, well, how was the market adjusting to the results that we know and to the results that we don't know?'Because that's how you trade it, right? I mean, if you get big price swings in certain things that look like they're out of bounds because of positioning, you gotta take advantage of that. And vice versa. If you think that the price movement is kind of correct with it, there's probably maybe more momentum if in fact, the market's getting it right.So this is what makes this so tricky – is that, you know, markets move not just based on the outcome of events or earnings or whatever it might be; but how positioning is. And so, the first two or three days – you know, it's a clearing event. You know, volatility is probably going to come down as we learn the results, no matter who wins. And then you're going to have to figure out, okay, where are things priced correctly? And where are things priced incorrectly? And then I can look at my analysis as to what I actually want to own, as opposed to tradeAndrew Sheets: That's great. And if I could just maybe add one, one thing for my side, you know, Mike – which you mentioned about volatility coming down. I do think that makes a lot of sense. That's something, you know, we're going to be watching on the credit side. If that does not happen, kind of as expected, that would be notable. And I also think what you mentioned about that interplay between, you know, higher yields and higher equities on some sort of initial move – especially if it was, a Republican sweep scenario where I think kind of the consensus view is that might be a 'stocks up yields up' type of type of environment. I think that will be very interesting to watch in terms of do we start to see a different interaction between stocks and yields as we break through some key levels. And I think for the credit market that interaction could certainly matter.It's great to catch up. Hopefully we'll know a lot more about how this all turned out pretty soon.Vishy Tirupattur: It's great chatting with both of you, Mike and Andrew.Mike Wilson: Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.