Game of Chance

There have been many attempts over the years to quantify defense. Despite claims that current stats describe 60% of fielding, it’s my opinion that little progress has been made. However, a new technology is coming which will soon change everything.

Spring is the time for guessing which players will have that long-awaited breakout season, which teams will surprise everyone and win a pennant, which ones will completely fall apart, and anything else that might happen in a baseball season. But calling them “predictions” doesn’t make them any better than “guesses,” even when the experts are talking.

Is Ty Cobb’s .366 lifetime batting average really an unbreakable record? What about Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs? Or Nolan Ryan’s 5714 strikeouts? And will anyone ever hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season?

The breaking of records is often surrounded by controversy. We have a tendency to defend the past as somehow superior to the present. Which of baseball’s great records are unbreakable because a player was extraordinary? And which because the game has changed? What records are the most interesting to think about?

In 1972 Steve Blass suddenly lost the ability to control his pitches. Thirty years later, the same thing happened to Rick Ankiel. We expect professional athletes to be stoic, unaffected by danger and injury, but the culture of baseball can have profound consequences on the performance of even the most elite athletes.

Right from its beginnings in the 1800s, baseball has been accompanied by a barrage of numbers. Why are statistics so important to baseball? Why did they develop so naturally, and why have they remained so fascinating for so long? What makes baseball different from football, basketball, and hockey?

In the past month two pitchers have been pulled from games while in the process of throwing a no-hitter. In general, pitchers today don’t throw as many pitches as they used to. What’s the deal with pitch counts? Do they really help keep pitchers healthy? Or do they prevent them from building the endurance they need to have long careers?

Derek Jeter is often referred to as the second best shortstop ever. Is this accurate? Where does Jeter fit among the greats?

Speed is an exciting part of baseball, but how important is it for an offense to have fast players? Whitey Herzog had a lot of success with fast teams, but Earl Weaver and many others have had success with slow-running power-hitting teams. Is there a place for the traditional leadoff hitter in today’s game?

Every year the Mets’ payroll is one of the highest in baseball and their results are mediocre. What’s going on? What are the problems and what do Mets fans have to look forward to?

Luck plays a huge role in baseball, more than most people realize. In fact, baseball players behave a lot like coin flips, and are subject to the same laws of probability. How much do stats actually tell about a player’s ability?

Why do we care if a batter hits .300 or a pitcher wins 20 games? How have these arbitrary milestones become so important to baseball fans? And, more importantly, how do they affect the players and the game itself? Is there a better way to quickly summarize a player’s accomplishments?

A recent ESPN article claimed that Barry Bonds was a more dominant home run hitter than Babe Ruth, and rewrites the all-time home run leader list with the use of some flawed math. I explain how to use z-scores to determine which players are actually the most dominant, and how to compare dominance across eras.

Carlos Beltran returns to centerfield for the New York Mets tonight while Jose Reyes sits out. The Mets injury management over the past two seasons has been abysmal. Also: the “get it right” argument in support of instant replay is based on a misunderstanding about the role of umpires and how the rules are enforced. Is instant replay more for the fans than for the game?

There have been some surprising performances in the first half of 2010. Are they flukes or for real? A closer look at all-stars Martin Prado, Arthur Rhodes, Yovani Gallardo, Corey Hart, and Jose Bautista.

The Texas Rangers averaged over 7 runs per game in June, led by Vladimir Guerrero who is destroying baseballs the way he has for the past 14 years, and still not getting the recognition he deserves. The exciting and colorful bad ball hitter is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the all-time greats, yet he is often placed in the same category as good-but-not-great players like David Wright, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay.

Rick Ankiel is on a very short list of players (which includes Babe Ruth) who have been legitimate pitchers and position players at the major league level. Because of his talent, his persistence, and the hardships he’s faced, I consider him one of the most important players in the game today.

It seems instant replay review is destined to be a part of baseball at some point. How will it affect the game? Schuyler Dunlap weighs in on how instant replay could be implemented. I remain skeptical that it’s a good thing for the sport.

The Mets are not going to make the playoffs this year, but Omar Minaya will probably trade young talent for mercenary veterans anyway, destroying next year’s team in the process. Mets fans watch this happen year after year, while the team continues to neglect their long-standing starting pitching problem (and last-ditch mid-season moves cannot solve a problem this deep).

Umpire Jim Joyce missed a call last night that cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game…or did he? How should we think about Galarraga’s performance? How many times have similar events occurred in baseball history? Thoughts on the nature of baseball records, instant replay, reversing the call, and what to do if you’re mad about it.