Podcasts about Probability

Tim Maudlin is Professor of Philosophy at NYU and Founder and Director of the John Bell Institute for the Foundations of Physics. Jacob Barandes is Senior Preceptor in Physics at Harvard University, where he works widely across the philosophy of physics, with focuses on the foundations of quantum mechanics, the philosophy of spacetime, and the metaphysics of laws. In this episode, Robinson, Tim, and Jacob discuss Jacob's novel approach to quantum mechanics, which he calls the “Indivisible Approach”. More particularly, they discuss the problems at the core of quantum mechanics, the ontology of the theory, causality and quantum phenomena, probability, and more. If you're interested in the foundations of physics, then please check out the JBI, which is devoted to providing a home for research and education in this important area. Any donations are immensely helpful at this early stage in the institute's life.Tim's Website: www.tim-maudlin.siteThe John Bell Institute: https://www.johnbellinstitute.orgJacob's Website: https://www.jacobbarandes.comThe Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence: https://philosophyofphysics.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/pop.186Historical Debates over the Physical Reality of the Wave Function: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09397Pilot-Wave Theories as Hidden Markov Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10569OUTLINE00:21 The Problems at the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics13:00 More on the Problems26:09 Is the Wave Function a Real Thing?32:48 Causation, Correlation, and Quantum Mechanics42:03 Terminological Issues44:34 Causal Models and the Markov Condition01:00:57 Can Time Exist Without Change?01:15:00 On Time and Change01:30:38 Newtonian Mechanics and the Markov Condition1:45:00 More on Newtonian Mechanics2:00:00 More on the Markov Condition02:17:49 Tim's Response02:28:18 Philosophy and Physics02:32:38 More on Probability02:42:13 Probability and the Double Slit Experiment 02:59:42 Why Tim Remains PuzzledRobinson's Website: http://robinsonerhardt.comRobinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

The Seattle Seahawks just won the Super Bowl, so in honor of their victory, this week I'm taking a look at Bigfoot sightings near Seattle! Located in King County, Washington, Seattle is the most populous city in the state, and the entire northwest region of the country. But not far outside the city limits, witnesses describe running into a large, hairy, humanoid figure. Sightings this week include Bigfoot road crossings, a lover's lane encounter with Sasquatch, a Bigfoot crossing through a man's backyard, hikers running into a Bigfoot stopping for a drink, and electrical workers spotting a pacing Bigfoot. Does Bigfoot lurk just outside the Emerald City?Chapters:2:33 - Seattle and the Jet City Sasquatch?3:27 - Late-night Bigfoot sighting near Duvall9:29 - Hikers near Mud Mountain Dam in Enumclaw see a Sasquatch drinking water 14:19 - A couple watching the stars at Rattlesnake Lake have a Bigfoot encounter20:44 - Electrical line workers hear howls and see Bigfoot corssing the road and pacing26:44 - Two boys returning from a fishing trip near Snoqualmie see Bigfoot walking away from their truck36:08 - Final Thoughts: Possibility vs. Probability#bigfoot #seattle #washington #kingcountyLinks!Follow us on Social media!Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oddanduntold/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/oddanduntoldWebsite: https://www.oddanduntold.comEmail me! : jason@oddanduntold.comBigfoot Sightings Near Atlanta: https://youtu.be/jGbW05FiLaY?si=TavEhmqGe09BwY4GBigfoot Sightings in Missouri | Taney County: https://youtu.be/6zsGShA2Y7A?si=2GMxA9wO7Cmt5mZpBigfoot Sightings in Massachusetts | Worcester County: https://youtu.be/N5vueu8vNdM?si=TiB1MSE8kAN68CEpBigfoot Sightings Around Christmas | Florida, Michigan, and British Columbia: https://youtu.be/SuRKpRJjkHY?si=PARNYsZ594JaqoCTBFRO Sightings in King County, WA: https://www.bfro.net/GDB/show_county_reports.asp?state=WA&county=KingCheck out Riversend, the band behind "Moonlight," our awesome theme music!Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/1yIwfeu2cH1kDZaMYxKOUe?si=NIUijnmsQe6LNWOsfZ2jPwRiversend Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RiversendbandRiversend Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/riversendband/

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 5th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 8th February 2026)

Manifesting love isn’t about attracting the right person, it’s about being ready for the love you’re asking for. Today, Jay challenges the way people have been told to manifest love. Rather than focusing on affirmations, visualization, or waiting for the perfect person to arrive, Jay reframes manifesting as an internal process of alignment. He explains that love doesn’t appear simply because someone wants it badly enough, it shows up when beliefs, emotional availability, habits, and identity are aligned to support a healthy relationship. Drawing from psychology and attachment theory, Jay explains why chemistry alone can often be misleading. He unpacks how feeling emotionally safe, knowing your worth, and staying grounded shape attraction far more than intensity or butterflies ever could. When chaos feels exciting and calm feels unfamiliar, Jay explains, it’s often because the nervous system is drawn to what feels familiar, not what is healthy. Jay shares that Manifesting love actually means learning to choose consistency alongside chemistry, clarity over confusion, and emotional availability over emotional pursuit without lowering standards or losing self-respect. In this episode, you'll learn: How to Manifest Love Without Chasing It How to Become Emotionally Available for the Right Relationship How to Regulate Your Nervous System Before Dating How to Stop Repeating the Same Relationship Patterns How to Create Environments Where Love Can Find You How to Make Space for Love to Stay Trust that the work you’re doing matters. Love grows when you do. And when your life finally has room for it, love won’t feel confusing or exhausting, it will feel safe, steady, and real. With Love and Gratitude, Jay Shetty Join over 750,000 people to receive my most transformative wisdom directly in your inbox every single week with my free newsletter. Subscribe here. What We Discuss: 00:00 Intro 01:02 Attract the Relationship That Matches Your Growth 02:29 Principle #1: Emotional Availability 05:53 Principle #2: Identity Shapes Attraction 09:26 Principle #3: Proximity and Probability 12:04 Principle #4: Nervous System Compatibility 15:57 Principle #5: Standards Versus Defenses 20:00 Four Things to Focus on to Manifest LoveSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, David and Nicole talked about the coaching changes for the Steelers and Eagles and Philly's Unrivaled team. Also-- no Super Bowl predictions.

What does it take to beat the odds in an AI-driven world? On this episode of DisrupTV, Kyle Young (Success Is a Numbers Game) and Jon Reed (diginomica) join Vala Afshar and Ray Wang to explore probability hacking, enterprise AI leadership, and why kindness still matters. From de-risking big goals to navigating the paradox of AI in the enterprise, this conversation offers practical insights for leaders facing uncertainty—and opportunity.

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 4th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 1st February 2026)

In this landmark Mind-Body Solution Colloquia, cognitive scientist Donald Hoffman and neuroscientist Karl Friston engage in a deep, rigorous dialogue on the foundations of reality, perception, and consciousness.Hoffman argues that spacetime and physical objects are not fundamental, but evolved interfaces shaped by fitness rather than truth. Friston presents the Free Energy Principle and Active Inference as a unifying framework for life, mind, and meaning — raising the question of whether inference itself can ground reality.Together, they explore:- Why spacetime may be derived, not fundamental- Whether consciousness must come before physics- Markov blankets, trace logic, and system boundaries- Probability, inference, and non-equilibrium dynamics- The limits of scientific explanation- Implications for AI, evolution, and ontologyThis is not a debate — it is a serious attempt to understand reality at its deepest level.TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) - What is Ultimately Real? Consciousness vs Physicalism Debate(00:51) - Why Consciousness is Fundamental Beyond Spacetime(03:06) - High Energy Physics: Spacetime is Doomed Explained(05:06 - Challenges of Physicalist Theories in Explaining Consciousness(07:11 - Ontological Views: Free Energy Principle Integration(08:20) - Background-Free Explanations of Lived Experience(10:06) - Parsimony and Data Compression in Scientific Models(12:21) - Discoveries in Simpler Scattering Amplitude Solutions(14:09) - Free Energy Principle Guiding Beyond Spacetime Physics(16:06) - Why Physicalism Fails to Boot Up Consciousness(19:05) - Probability Theory's Role in Consciousness Frameworks(26:05) - Trace Logic Applied to Markov Chains Dynamics(34:51) - Markov Blankets and Insulation from the Past(39:07) - Minimizing Surprise in Non-Equilibrium Processes(53:32) - Spacetime as a Derived Projection from Fundamentals(1:04:15) - Constructing Simpler Explanations of Reality(1:20:50) - State Spaces and Dimensionality in Consciousness(1:41:30) - Non-Unique Bounds in AI Design Using Trace Logic(2:02:00) - From Classical Probability to Quantum Mechanics Transition(2:10:26) - Inferring Hidden Realities Through Relationships(2:18:54) - Time as a Computational Resource in Inference(2:24:09) - Scope and Limits of Scientific Explanations(2:32:32) - Agreements on Constructed Realities and Perceptions(2:40:01) - Closing Thoughts: Joint ManifestoEPISODE LINKS:- Karl's Round 1: https://youtu.be/Kb5X8xOWgpc- Karl's Round 2: https://youtu.be/mqzyKs2Qvug- Karl's Round 3 (Ft Mark Solms): https://youtu.be/Jtp426wQ-JI- Karl's Lecture 1: https://youtu.be/Gp9Sqvx4H7w- Karl's Lecture 2: https://youtu.be/Sfjw41TBnRM- Karl's Lecture 3: https://youtu.be/dM3YINvDZsY- Don's Round 1: https://youtu.be/M5Hz1giUUT8- Don's Round 2: https://youtu.be/Toq9YLl49KM- Don's Round 3: https://youtu.be/QRa8r5xOaAA- Don's Round 4: https://youtu.be/Hf1q-bZMEo4- Don's Lecture 1: https://youtu.be/r_UFm8GbSvU- Don's Lecture 2: https://youtu.be/YBmzqNIlbcICONNECT:- Website: https://mindbodysolution.org - YouTube: https://youtube.com/@MindBodySolution- Podcast: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/mindbodysolution- Twitter: https://twitter.com/drtevinnaidu- Facebook: https://facebook.com/drtevinnaidu - Instagram: https://instagram.com/drtevinnaidu- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/drtevinnaidu- Website: https://tevinnaidu.com=============================Disclaimer: The information provided on this channel is for educational purposes only. The content is shared in the spirit of open discourse and does not constitute, nor does it substitute, professional or medical advice. We do not accept any liability for any loss or damage incurred from you acting or not acting as a result of listening/watching any of our contents. You acknowledge that you use the information provided at your own risk. Listeners/viewers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with their own experts in the respective fields.

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 3 of 2026 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 25th January 2026 (week 3) with the brilliant Steph Vass. YouTube https://youtu.be/496XoAgOVIU ✅ New Listings * 35.2k new properties came to market this week in week 3, up as expected from 32.8k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 30.6k. * 10-year week 3 average : 31.8k * Year-to-date (YTD): 96.5k new listings, 0.5% above than 2025 YTD (96.1k), 17.5% above 2024 YTD (82.1k) and 34% above the 2017–19 average (72k) ✅ Price Reductions * 20k reductions this week * 7.6% of resi homes for sale were reduced in December. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average was 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 24.6k homes sold stc this week 3, up expectedly from 21.2k last week. * Week 3 average (for last 10 years) : 23.4k * 2026 weekly average : 19.1k. * YTD: 62.7k gross sales, which is 8.7% behind Week 2 * 3 YTD of 2025 (68.7k), yet 23.5% ahead of wk.3 2024 (50.8k) and 30.6% above the 2017–19 average (48k). * Thoughts - January 2025 was an exceptional month as we had the stamp duty deadline for April 2025 - here it was a good sales month. To be ahead of 2024 and pre Covid years by such a amount is good to see. ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £413k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £348k * A 18.8% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 9.9% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in December '25. Down as expected from 13.5% in November, 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * Huge jump in net sales from last week. 19.3k, up from 15.8k last week. * Ten-year Week 3 average: 18.2k. * Weekly average for 2026: 15.4k. * Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k. * YTD: 46.1k, which is 8.3% behind Wk.3 of 2025 (30.6k), 35% ahead of wk2 2024 (19.9k) and 40% ahead of wk2 2017–19 (19.1k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * December Stats : 60.2% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in December. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more December stats come in). * November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. * Dec 24: 60.3% / Dec 23: 57.7% / Dec 22: 64.4% / Dec 21: 73.7% ✅ Stock Levels * 613k homes on the market on the 1st of January '26 , down from 678k on 1st of December '25 . (605k on the market on 1st Jan '25 for comparison) * 434k homes in agent's sales pipeline on the 1st Jan 2026, almost identical than 12 months ago on 1st Jan '25 (439k). ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * December 2025 agreed sales averaged £337.09 per sq.ft. 0.6% higher than 12 months ago (£335.04) and 12.6% than 5 years ago (£299.30). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in December 2025 - £1,702 pcm - compared to £1,719 pcm in Dec 2024 and £1,301 pcm in Dec 2017. * Available Rental Properties in December '25 - 285k compared to 321k in November '25. (Dec '24 - 258k and Dec '23 - 235k) ✅ Graphs https://youtu.be/496XoAgOVIU

Guest artist CARRIE MOYER joins JILLIAN KNIPE to discuss her work via 'Cassandra at the Wedding' by Dorothy Baker. Published in 1962 by Houghton Mifflin (US) and Victor Gollancz (UK), most recently Daunt Books, with sympathetic tenderness and acerbic wit, it follows twin sisters Cassandra and Judith as they navigate Judith's wedding to a very pleasant and capable young doctor. The other key characters are their father, a retired philosophy professor who fancies a Brandy soda tipple, the ghost of their dead mother and their maternal grandmother. Get in touch with us via artfictionspodcast@gmail.com Buy us a coffee! Support us on Patreon!   "it feels like all of the interesting innovations have been done by women painters in terms of abstraction" Carrie and Jillian's conversation encompasses activism, wit, abandonment, confusion, family, ambivalence, agitpop, snarkiness, ambiguity, galaxy, queer, optical bliss, transitional places, menacing edge, geological time, mental illness, burying identity, utter distaste, ominous vibe and deadpan humour. They also talk about family as a cult, female body parts, destabilised vibration of colours, digging under conventions, being a lesbian in public, hard edge abstraction, vicious in a great beautiful smart way, wholesome hetro homemakers, abstract expressionism as a language and what the future is supposed to hold for you as a young woman. CARRIE MOYER 'Always Venus, Never Mars' Pilar Corrias 23 Jan - 7 Mar 2026 carriemoyer.com @carrie.moyer.studio 'Queer Abstraction' Des Moines Art Center by Curator Jared Ledesma 1 Jun - 8 Sep 2019 'Cave Dwellers who Paint Abstraction' 2025 'Radiant Granularity' 2025 'Art Glass' 2016 ARTISTS + CURATORS Amy Sillman Anish Kapoor Béla Bartók David Getsy Dona Nelson Elizabeth Murray Frank Stella Helen Frankenthaler Jack Whitten '9.11.01' 2006 after Sep 11 2001 Judy Chicago Laura Owens Louise Fishman Mary Reid Kelley and Patrick Kelley 'Best Femmes Forever' Morris Louis Pat Steir Rebecca Byrne Rochelle Feinstein Sabine Moritz Stephen Meuller William Butler Yeats BOOKS + AUTHORS + FILM Anna Burns 'The Milkman' narrator Brid Brennan Arundhati Roy 'Mother Mary Comes to Me' Audible 'Carrie Moyer' 2021 with contributions by Lauren O'Neill-Butler, Katy Siegel, Joanna Dinah Fateman by Rizzoli Electa Flann O'Brien 'The Third Policeman' narrator Jim Norton J D Salinger 'Catcher in the Rye' John Gray 'Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus' 'The Ice Tower' Travis Jeppesen 'Queer Abstraction (Or How to Be a Pervert with No Body) Some Notes Toward a Probability' Mousse magazine 2019 'Young Man with a Horn' 1950 UNIVERSITIES + ORGANISATIONS Boston University Daunt Books Hunter College, New York London Film Festivals MoMA, New York 'Jack Whitten: The Messenger' 2025 Pratt Institute

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Kyle Austin Young was the guest on this episode of Success Profiles Radio. He is an award-winning strategy consultant for high achievers, entrepreneurs, and leader in a wide range of fields. He has refined a powerful system for accomplishing big, meaningful goals that focus on understanding and changing your odds of success. He is the author of the book Success Is A Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals By Changing The Odds. The premise of the book is that you can hack your chances of succeeding at virtually any goal by being someone who SHOULD win instead of someone who CAN win. We talked about how being more prolific dramatically increases your odds of success, why embracing failure should be part of your business model, why the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team's gold medal perhaps wasn't the miracle everyone thought it was, and what to do when we perceive that more talented people stand in the way of us achieving our goals. In addition, we talked about ways we can increase the probability of succeeding at our goals, how to know when quitting is a viable option, and much more. You can listen and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts/iTunes, Spotify, Audible, Amazon, iHeart Radio, and at Success Profiles Radio | Live Internet Talk Radio | Best Shows Podcasts

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 2 of 2026 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 18th January 2026 (week 2) with the brilliant Ben Madden. YouTube https://youtu.be/Pti1_kA3L3I ✅ New Listings * 32.8k new properties came to market this week, up as expected from 28.5k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 30.6k. * 10-year week 2 average : 27.8k * Year-to-date (YTD): 61.3k new listings, 0.3% above than 2025 YTD (61.1k), 25.6% above 2024 YTD and 49% above the 2017–19 average (41.3k) ✅ Price Reductions * 19.8k reductions this week * 7.6% of resi homes for sale were reduced in December. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average was 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 21.2k homes sold subject to contract this week, up expectedly from 17k last week. * Week 2 average (for last 10 years) : 19.6k * 2026 weekly average : 19.1k. * YTD: 38.2k gross sales, which is 11.3% behind Week 2 YTD of 2025 (43k), yet 31% ahead of wk.2 2024 (29.1k) and 42.4% above the 2017–19 average (26.8k). * Thoughts - January 2025 was an exceptional month as we had the stamp duty deadline for April 2025. ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £423k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £346k * A 22.2% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 9.9% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in December '25. Down as expected from 13.5% in November, 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 15.8k net sales this week, up expectedly from 11k last week. * Ten-year Week 2 average: 14.4k. * Weekly average for 2026: 13.4k. Weekly average for 2025: 19.2k. * YTD: 26.8k, which is 12.3% behind Wk.2 of 2024 (30.6k), 35% ahead of wk2 2024 (19.9k) and 40% ahead of wk2 2017–19 (19.1k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * December Stats : 60.1%% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in December. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more December stats come in). * November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. * Dec 24: 60.3% / Dec 23: 57.7% / Dec 22: 64.4% / Dec 21: 73.7% ✅ Stock Levels * 613k homes on the market on the 1st of January '26 , down from 678k on 1st of December '25 . (605k on the market on 1st Jan '25 for comparison) * 434k homes in agent's sales pipeline on the 1st Jan 2026, almost identical than 12 months ago on 1st Jan '25 (439k). ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * December 2025 agreed sales averaged £337.09 per sq.ft. 0.6% higher than 12 months ago (£335.04) and 12.6% than 5 years ago (£299.30). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in December 2025 - £1,702 pcm - compared to £1,719 pcm in Dec 2024 and £1,301 pcm in Dec 2017. * Available Rental Properties in December '25 - 285k compared to 321k in November '25. (Dec '24 - 258k and Dec '23 - 235k)

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Kurt Vonnegut Jr. (1922-2007): Author of “Slaughterhouse-Five” and other novels. Kurt Vonnegut (1922-2007), interviewed on September 23, 1991 by Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff while on tour for his collection of essays, “Fates Worse Than Death,” recorded for the “Probabilities” radio program It's hard to describe the impact Kurt Vonnegut has had over the years on American culture and politics. His science fiction novel “Slaughterhouse-Five” brought the world's attention to the fire-bombing of Dresden during World War II. His several other novels tackled a wide variety of themes including free will, the absurdity of human existence, and the impact of technology on society. His other novels include God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater, Cat's Cradle, Breakfast of Champions, Slapstick, Player Piano and others. During the latter years of his life, he wrote essays and opinion pieces. This was the last interview of any kind to occur in the off-air studio in KPFA's old offices on Shattuck Avenue in Berkeley. The new radio station on Martin Luther King Jr Way was already operational but we were able to squeeze in this last one in the old building. Complete 31-minute Radio Wolinsky podcast.     Mavis Gallant (1922-2014): Anti-Fascist ‘New Yorker' Short Story Writer. Mavis Gallant (1922-2014, noted anti-Fascist short story writer for the New Yorker magazine, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff on Ocrober 6, 1993 while on tour for her collection, Across The Bridge. Mavis Gallant, who died in 2014 at the age of 91, was a Canadian short story writer who spent most of her life in France. During her lifetime, she had 118 stories in the New Yorker, which made her one of that magazine's most published writers. Along the way she did write two novels, but it was because of her shorter fiction that she was very much a writers' writer. A very private person, she only rarely gave interviews – but she did go on a book tour for her short story collection, Across the Bridge, and it's then, on October 6, 1993, that Richard A. Lupoff and Richard Wolinsky had a chance to speak with her. Wikipedia notes that her subject was frequently fascism, in particular about what she called “the small possibilities in people” which leaned them toward fascism. In a roundabout way, she discusses that in this interview. New York Review Books Classics has published several volumes of her stories, most notably The Collected Stories, which features fifty two examples of her best work, and Paris Stories, curated by Michael Ondaatje. Across the Bridge is available in an e-book edition from Amazon.     The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – January 22, 2026: Kurt Vonnegut Jr., Legendary American Author appeared first on KPFA.

Susan is 65, recently widowed, and has saved $2.1 million for retirement.On paper, she's more than fine… but emotionally, she doesn't feel fine.After watching her husband pass away, Susan is ready to retire five years earlier than planned so she can enjoy her “go-go years” while she still has her health.But she's terrified of one thing:

In this intellectually rich and surprisingly practical conversation, Bart sits down with Dr. Mike Orkin, distinguished statistician, professor, consultant, and author of The Story of Chance: Beyond the Margin of Error. Dr. Orkin explains how probability, randomness, and risk quietly shape our everyday decisions — from business and investing to gambling, medicine, and life itself. Through accessible examples involving dice, casinos, startups, lotteries, and leadership, he breaks down why luck feels powerful in the short term but fades in the long run, how skill changes outcomes, and why most people misunderstand chance entirely. This episode bridges mathematics, business strategy, and human behavior in a way that's eye‑opening, grounding, and deeply useful.Major Takeaways / LearningsLuck dominates the short run — skill dominates the long run. Repeated decisions reveal predictable outcomes over time.The Law of Averages explains why randomness eventually stabilizes. Outcomes converge toward probability with repetition.Expected value (EV) matters more than single outcomes. Winning once means nothing if the long‑term math is negative.Positive EV isn't enough — risk management matters. Over‑betting can destroy even the best strategies.The Kelly System teaches sustainable growth. Betting or investing a fixed fraction prevents catastrophic losses.Most people confuse correlation with causation. We're wired to see patterns that don't actually exist.Luck is a group phenomenon. In lotteries and mass events, someone wins — but your odds don't improve.Better decisions come from understanding uncertainty. Awareness of chance leads to smarter, calmer leadership.Memorable Quotes“Luck disappears in the long run.”“The important probability isn't that you win — it's that someone wins.”“Expected value tells you what happens over time, not today.”“Positive odds don't protect you if you bet everything.”“Most people don't understand the basic laws of chance.”“Good strategy beats good intentions when uncertainty is involved.”Why It Matters / How to Use ItThis episode helps listeners make better decisions in an unpredictable world. Whether you're starting a business, investing, leading a team, or navigating life's uncertainty, Dr. Mike Orkin's insights reveal how understanding probability reduces fear, improves judgment, and prevents costly mistakes. The conversation reframes luck not as magic or destiny, but as math — and shows how patience, discipline, and sound strategy create sustainable success. If you want to think more clearly, take smarter risks, and stop being fooled by randomness, this episode delivers timeless wisdom you can apply immediately.

In this episode of Trending in Education, Mike Palmer welcomes Andrew Sliwinski, Global Head of Product Experience for LEGO Education, on the day of a major product launch. Together, they explore the intersection of physical play and artificial intelligence, revealing how LEGO is redefining AI literacy for the next generation. Andrew shares his winding career path from tutoring in Detroit to directing Scratch at MIT and serving on the board of the Raspberry Pi Foundation. The conversation dives into LEGO Education's new Computer Science and AI curriculum, a hands-on, privacy-first platform designed for students from kindergarten through eighth grade.

United States v. Ferguson, No. 24-2178 (8th Cir. Jan. 6, 2026)cocaine isomers; divisibility; modified categorical approach; realistic probability test; Arkansas; Ark. Code Ann. § 5-64-401(a)(1)(A)(i)Fofana v. Noem, et al., No. 24-2485 (8th Cir. Jan. 9, 2026)jurisdiction; Patel; INA § 242(a)(2)(B)(ii); asylee adjustment; “any decision” Aguilar-Hernandez v. Bondi, No. 24-2427 (8th Cir. Jan. 6, 2026)domestic violence-type asylum; one central reason; women; acquiescence; Guatemala Gutierrez-Mikan, et al v. U.S. Att'y Gen., No. 24-13788 (11th Cir. Jan. 5, 2026)ineffective assistance of counsel; Loper Bright & Lozada; substantial compliance; CAT; acquiescence; FARC; Colombia Savane v. DHS, et al., No. 24-3286 (3d Cir. Jan. 7, 2026)material misrepresentation; naturalization; willful; diversity visa lottery; DS-230 omissions; omitting children from application; public charge; 8 C.F.R. § 103.2(a)(2); lawfully admitted for permanent residence  Matter of E-M-F-S-, 29 I&N Dec. 379 (BIA 2026)death threats; past persecution; journalists; Peru Liz's email: emontano@kktplaw.comKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years. Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Special Link! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Click me!Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATION:Email: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerSupport the show

A curious Twitter exchange with David Deutsch prompts Bruce to explore what Deutsch and other critical rationalists mean when they assert that randomness doesn't truly exist.⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠

Get My NEW Book: Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FN8DH6SX Andrew Jaffe Book: The Random Universe: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Universe-Models-Probability-Cosmos/dp/0300250509 Is the universe intrinsically random? In this conversation, we dive deep into why the universe may be fundamentally, intrinsically random. Whether inflation on life support, the truth behind the Hubble tension, and whether cosmology is approaching the event horizon, limits beyond which humans can never know. Today we're joined by one of the architects of modern cosmological inference, Professor Andrew Jaffee, author of a new book called The Random Universe that argues that every observation in science is shaped by the models we bring to it, biases and all. KEY TAKEAWAYS 00:00–01:13 — Science and life rely on building models. 01:13–03:35 — Models of people and reality are often wrong and revised. 04:04–06:01 — Observation depends on prior theories. 06:01–07:32 — Models can't be escaped, only improved. 07:32–08:57 — No single scientific method exists. 08:57–11:25 — Science uses induction, not pure proof. 11:25–13:22 — Induction isn't certain, only probabilistic. 13:22–15:36 — Induction works because nature is regular. 17:44–19:08 — Big Bang emerges from well-tested models. 19:08–21:15 — Current cosmology is stressed, not broken. 29:19–30:36 — Probability gives meaning to models. 39:45–41:11 — Randomness often reflects limited knowledge. 43:46–45:00 — Quantum physics is fundamentally probabilistic. 49:09–50:04 — Inflation awaits decisive observational tests. - Additional resources: Get My NEW Book: Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FN8DH6SX?ref_=pe_93986420_775043100 Please join my mailing list here

Capturing Maduro and Buying Greenland – all in a day's work! Markets off to a great start – plenty of January to go… Venezuela oil – untapped opportunity – BUT let's take a closer look. And our Guest – Todd Tresidder – Founder of FinancialMentor.com NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Todd Tresidder graduated from the University of California at Davis with a B.A. in economics and a passion for creating successful businesses. A serial entrepreneur since childhood, Todd went on to build his own wealth as a hedge fund investment manager before “retiring” at 35 to teach others. Today, he provides advanced investment and retirement planning education at FinancialMentor.Com showing you what works, what doesn't, and why based on a depth of proven experience. Todd is a financial coach and educator at FinancialMentor.com. He’s the author of five financial planning books including ‘How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?,’ ‘Don’t Hire A Financial Coach,’ and ‘Variable Annuity Pros and Cons.’ You can connect with Todd via his website, Financialmentor.com, Twitter @FinancialMentor, or on Google+. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SHLD), (RTX), (SPY), (GLD), (XLE)

What if success isn't personal at all — but mathematical?Kyle Austin Young reveals why so many intelligent, capable people fail to reach their goals — even when they do everything “right.” Drawing from his own experience of repeated layoffs, personal burnout, and rebuilding his life through consulting, Kyle introduces a powerful framework for rethinking success through probability rather than motivation.Kyle explains how overwhelm, survival mode, and mental clutter don't just affect our wellbeing — they distort our ability to make good decisions. Together, Marc and Kyle explore how success diagrams, probability hacking, and intentional reflection can radically improve the odds of achieving meaningful goals — personally and professionally.This is a conversation about slowing down, reclaiming agency, and learning how to design success instead of hoping for it.Show Partners:A special thanks to our mental fitness + sweat partner Sip SaunasPersonal Socrates: Better Question, Better LifeGet in Touch:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/behindthehumanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-champagne-

Join Tommy Shaughnessy as he speaks with Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, about his deep dive into the existential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. After six months of intensive research and discussions with Nobel Prize-winning physicists, Nic breaks down why the "quantum threat" has moved from theoretical FUD to a material risk that the Bitcoin community is currently unprepared to face.They explore the "Q-Day" timeline, the vulnerability of Satoshi's 2 million BTC, and the urgent need for a migration to post-quantum cryptography. Can Bitcoin's rigid governance survive the most significant technical challenge in its history, or will sovereign nations and private firms reach the coins first?

Kyle Austin Young discovered through two devastating layoffs that success is not determined by desire alone, but by understanding probability and systematically managing risk. Most people fatally underestimate their odds by averaging probabilities rather than multiplying them—a mathematical error explaining why nine out of ten businesses fail. Kyle's consulting methodology asks not just What am I hired to do? but What can I do to make this succeed? By identifying potential failures and creatively eliminating them before they occur, he developed probability hacking, a framework that transforms how people approach obstacles and achievement. Kyle's philosophy centers on strategic risk anticipation rather than blind positivity. Real-world examples—from a nonprofit's hidden email glitch causing donation decline, to Bic's unwanted women's pens, to Edison's thousands of failed experiments—prove systematic de-risking works better than motivation alone. He advocates thinking negative as rigorous analysis of what could go wrong, followed by creative prevention. Repeated attempts, not talent, separate successful people from failures, and paused goals often generate unexpected successes, like YouTube evolving from a failed dating site. His personal path of pursuing smaller milestones before his larger goal demonstrates how systematic sequencing builds assets that make success inevitable. Kyle Austin Young's mission is empowering people to pursue meaningful goals through probability-based thinking rather than affirmations alone. Success comes through better odds management, not greater talent. To learn his complete framework, visit his website and grab his book Success Is a Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals by Changing the Odds on Amazon. Start today by identifying one risk for every goal and brainstorming one creative solution. Any day can be your fresh start when you commit to changing your odds. For the accessible version of the podcast, go to our Ziotag gallery.We're happy you're here! Like the pod?Support the podcast and receive discounts from our sponsors: https://yourbrandamplified.codeadx.me/Leave a rating and review on your favorite platformFollow @yourbrandamplified on the socialsTalk to my digital avatar Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, we discuss public distrust of politicians and the realities behind presidential approval polling before turning to the math of lotteries and why people continue to play despite the odds. We examine Maryland's proposed reparations commission, including questions of eligibility, funding, legal responsibility, and the practical challenges of tying modern policy to historical injustice. We're joined by Phil Magness to explore the economic history of slavery, the claim that capitalism was built on slave labor, and why slavery is fundamentally incompatible with free markets. We cover Adam Smith's opposition to slavery, misconceptions about profit incentives, the global history of forced labor, and the moral and economic failures surrounding emancipation, closing with a broader discussion of capitalism, socialism, and historical accountability. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:44 Presidential Approval Ratings and Polling Reality 02:38 Why Americans Have Always Hated Politicians 03:35 Powerball, Probability, and the Math of Dreaming 06:51 Maryland's Reparations Commission Explained 08:12 Who Pays and Who Gets Reparations? 10:03 Mitigation, Law, and the Reparations Problem 14:24 Introducing Phil Magness 15:02 Was Capitalism Built on Slavery? 17:59 Slavery as an Ancient Institution 19:50 Adam Smith's Case Against Slavery 23:05 Why Slavery Is Anti-Capitalist 24:50 Pro-Slavery Economics and Feudalism 26:16 Founding Fathers, Hypocrisy, and Moral Failure 30:21 Slavery's Global History and Misconceptions 32:06 Incentives, Profit, and Economic Naivety 34:53 Would Slavery Have Ended Without the Civil War? 37:59 Gradual Emancipation and Historical Alternatives 40:47 Socialism, Capitalism, and the Plantation Model 44:01 Final Reflections and Closing Thoughts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Jack Arnold (1916-1992). Film Director (“Creature from the Black Lagoon” et al), 1980 Jack Arnold, who died at the age of 75 in 1992, was the 1950s master of the science fiction film. Among the films he directed were It Came From Outer Space, The Creature from the Black Lagoon, Revenge of the Creature, Tarantula, and The Incredible Shrinking Man. The Probabilities crew – Richard A. Lupoff, Lawrence Davidson and Richard Wolinsky – received a small stipend from a science fiction convention and flew to Los Angeles to interview Jack Arnold in his office at Universal Studios. The interview is undated but was recorded in around 1980, give or take a year. It Came from Outer Space, along with two film noirs, were released  in 1953, Creature from the Black Lagoon in 1954 and Revenge of the Creature in 1955. The first western, The Man from Bitter Ridge along with Tarantula and his work on This Island Earth also came from 1955. The rest of the westerns, along with The Incredible Shrinking Man and the Peter Sellers classic The Mouse That Roared, came between 1956 and 1959. After that, he directed a couple more A pictures, as he called them, but his primary work moved to television, and from then until his retirement in 1984, he was constantly working on projects for the small screen, interspersed with the occasional film. Remastered and re-edited by Richard Wolinsky in July 2021. Complete Interview     Book Interview/Events and Theatre Links Note: Shows may unexpectedly close early or be postponed due to actors' positive COVID tests. Check the venue for closures, ticket refunds, and mask requirements before arrival. Dates are in-theater performances unless otherwise noted. Some venues operate Tuesday – Sunday; others for shorter periods each week. All times Pacific Time. Closing dates are sometimes extended. Book Stores Bay Area Book Festival  See website for highlights from the 110th Annual Bay Area Book Festival, May 31 – June 1, 2025. Book Passage.  Monthly Calendar. Mix of on-line and in-store events. Books Inc.  Mix of on-line and in-store events. The Booksmith.  Monthly Event Calendar. BookShop West Portal. Monthly Event Calendar. Center for Literary Arts, San Jose. See website for Book Club guests in upcoming months. Green Apple Books. Events calendar. Kepler's Books  On-line Refresh the Page program listings. Live Theater Companies Actors Ensemble of Berkeley.  See website for readings and events. Actor's Reading Collective (ARC).  See website for upcoming productions. African American Art & Culture Complex. See website for calendar. American Conservatory Theatre A Streetcar Named Desire by Tennessee Williams, Jan. 21 – Feb. 1, 2026, Toni Rembe (Geary). Paranormal Activity, Feb. 19 – March 15, Toni Rembe. Awesome Theatre Company. See website for information. Berkeley Playhouse. Once, February 20 – March 22.  Berkeley Rep. An Evening with David Sedaris, .Jan. 3 – 11, Roda Theatre. Berkeley Shakespeare Company See website for upcoming productions. Brava Theatre Center: See calendar for events listings. BroadwaySF: The Book of Mormon, Jan. 13 – Feb. 1. See website for complete listings for the Orpheum, Golden Gate and Curran Theaters. Broadway San Jose:  A Beautiful Noise, December 30 – January 4. See website for other events. Center REP: Lost in Yonkers by Neil Simon, March 29 – April 19. Central Stage. See website for upcoming productions, 5221 Central Avenue, Richmond Central Works After Happy by Patricia Milton, Feb. 28 – March 29. Cinnabar Theatre. My Fair Lady, January 23 – February 8, 2026. Club Fugazi. Dear San Francisco ongoing. Check website for Music Mondays listings. Contra Costa Civic Theatre A Chorus Line, June 6 – 21 See website for other events and concerts. Golden Thread  See website for upcoming productions. Hillbarn Theatre: What the Constitution Means to Me by Heidi Schreck, January 22 – February 8. Lorraine Hansberry Theatre. See website for upcoming productions. Los Altos Stage Company. Yoga Play by Dipika Guha. January 22 – February 15.. Lower Bottom Playaz  See website for upcoming productions. Magic Theatre. Macbeth, a new version by Migdalia Cruz. March 18 – April 5. Marin Shakespeare Company: Let The Wind Sweep Through: A Conference of Birds, Feb. 6-15. See website for schedule. Marin Theatre: The Cherry Orchard by Anton Chekhov Jan . 29 – Feb. 22, 2026. Mission Cultural Center for Latino Arts Upcoming Events Page. New Conservatory Theatre Center (NCTC)  Ruthless,  Dec. 5 – January 11, 2026. New Performance Traditions.  See website for upcoming schedule Oakland Theater Project. See website for upcoming 2026 season. Odd Salon: Upcoming events in San Francisco & New York, and streaming. Palace of Fine Arts Theater.  See website for event listings. Pear Theater. My Fair Lady, Feb 20 – March 8. See website for staged readings and other events. Playful People Productions. Next production: The Play That Goes Wrong. Presidio Theatre. See website for complete schedule of events and performances. The Children's Theatre Association of San Francisco (CTA) presents Once Upon a Mattress, January 24 – February 28, Ray of Light: Mean Girls. May 2026. Ross Valley Players: See website for New Works Sunday night readings and other events. San Francisco Playhouse. Into the Woods. November 30 – January 17, 2026. SFBATCO.  See website for upcoming streaming and in- theater shows. San Jose Stage Company: See website for events and upcoming season Shotgun Players.  Sunday in the Park with George, November 15 – January 31. South Bay Musical Theatre:  Little Women, The Broadway Musical, January 24 – February 14, 2026. SPARC: See website for upcoming events. Stagebridge: See website for events and productions. Storytime every 4th Saturday. The Breath Project. Streaming archive. The Marsh: Calendar listings for Berkeley, San Francisco and Marshstream. Theatre Lunatico  See website for upcoming productions.. Theatre Rhino  Left Field, written and directed by John Fisher, February 19 – March 15. Streaming: Essential Services Project, conceived and performed by John Fisher, all weekly performances now available on demand. TheatreWorks Silicon Valley Hershey Felder: The Piano and Me, January 17 – February 8, Mountain View Center for the Performing Arts. Primary Trust by Eboni Booth, March 4 – 29, Lucie Stern Theatre, Palo Alto. Word for Word.  See website for upcoming productions. Misc. Listings: BAMPFA: On View calendar for Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive. Berkeley Symphony: See website for listings. Chamber Music San Francisco: Calendar, 2025 Season. Dance Mission Theatre. On stage events calendar. Fort Mason Center. Events calendar. Oregon Shakespeare Festival: Calendar listings and upcoming shows. San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus. See schedule for upcoming SFGMC performances. San Francisco Opera. Calendar listings. San Francisco Symphony. Calendar listings. Filmed Live Musicals: Searchable database of all filmed live musicals, podcast, blog. If you'd like to add your bookstore or theater venue to this list, please write Richard@kpfa.org   . The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – January 1, 2026: The Probabilities Archive. Jack Arnold (1916-1992), Science Fiction Film Director appeared first on KPFA.

Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?My guest today says those odds aren't just graspable — they're hackable.Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game. He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.Resources Related to the PodcastAoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better DecisionsAoM Podcast #840: When to QuitAoM Podcast #490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky?Connect With Kyle Austin YoungKyle's websiteKyle on LinkedInSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode of Eating Habits for Life, we're diving into Probability Mindset vs. Possibility Mindset and how this single shift can completely change your relationship with food, your body, and your results.If you've ever thought:“I've tried before and it didn't work…”“I'll probably just fail again…”“I want change, but I don't trust myself anymore…”This episode will help you understand why your brain keeps predicting the same outcomes, and how to stop letting your past define what's possible for you.You'll learn:What probability mindset is and how it quietly keeps you stuck with food and weightWhy “realistic” goals often protect you from disappointment, but limit real changeHow a possibility mindset opens the door to sustainable weight loss and peace with foodThe powerful questions that shift you from fear of failure to real momentumHow changing who you become matters more than forcing new actions with willpowerThis conversation goes beyond eating habits and weight loss. It's about expanding what you allow yourself to want and showing your brain that this time truly can be different.✨ Plus, I share an important update about the future direction of this podcast and who it's specifically being created for moving forward.If you're ready to stop predicting failure and start exploring what's possible, this episode is for you.___________

On this episode, James Weaver, Matt Manocherian, and Alex Vigderman discuss the wild swings that took place in the Rams/Seahawks, Packers/Bears, and Steelers/Lions games from this past week. Specifically, they took a look at the win probability model and found the key points in each game where there was a major change in win probabilities. Other topics include:- Rashid Shaheed to the rescue!- Onside kicks are back?- Required public speaking course for the officials?ArticlesOptimistic and Pessimistic Takeaways for the Seahawks and Rams After Week 16Off The Charts features a blend of statistical insights, tactical analysis, and personal opinions, aimed at providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the week's key matchups and the intricacies of the sport. You can follow our content on Twitter at @Football_SIS, on Bluesky at @sportsinfosis.bsky.social and at sportsinfosolutions.com.

The Necessities Underlying Reality: Connecting Philosophy of Mathematics, Ethics and Probability (Bloomsbury, 2025) is an open access book that covers four decades of work by the leading Australian philosopher, mathematician and historian of ideas, James Franklin.These interlinking essays are connected by a core theme: the necessary structures in reality that allow certain knowledge of absolute truths. Franklin's Aristotelian realist philosophy of mathematics shows how mathematical truths are directly about physical reality, and at the same time certainly and provably true. Ranging from mathematics to evidence evaluation to ethics, his philosophy of probability sees the relation of evidence to hypothesis, such as in science and law, as purely logical, hence necessary.Across ethics and the philosophy of religion, the theme of necessity is repeated: basic ethical truths (such as the worth of persons and the wrongness of murder) are shown to have the same certainty as mathematics. Focus on the history of ideas connects the philosophical work in the present with the medieval scholastic tradition, which defended similar necessities but is now neglected.Here is an up-to-date introduction to Franklin's overall perspective. Recalling Western philosophy to its roots, it reveals the way absolute necessities are discoverable across the abstract fields of mathematics, logical evidence and ethics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Jeff and Scott are joined by the young man who came up with the podcast's name, and they also chat at length about the Pro Bowl, late-game issues, the Bucs' pass rush, the NFL's crazy Week 16, Pub subs and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Necessities Underlying Reality: Connecting Philosophy of Mathematics, Ethics and Probability (Bloomsbury, 2025) is an open access book that covers four decades of work by the leading Australian philosopher, mathematician and historian of ideas, James Franklin.These interlinking essays are connected by a core theme: the necessary structures in reality that allow certain knowledge of absolute truths. Franklin's Aristotelian realist philosophy of mathematics shows how mathematical truths are directly about physical reality, and at the same time certainly and provably true. Ranging from mathematics to evidence evaluation to ethics, his philosophy of probability sees the relation of evidence to hypothesis, such as in science and law, as purely logical, hence necessary.Across ethics and the philosophy of religion, the theme of necessity is repeated: basic ethical truths (such as the worth of persons and the wrongness of murder) are shown to have the same certainty as mathematics. Focus on the history of ideas connects the philosophical work in the present with the medieval scholastic tradition, which defended similar necessities but is now neglected.Here is an up-to-date introduction to Franklin's overall perspective. Recalling Western philosophy to its roots, it reveals the way absolute necessities are discoverable across the abstract fields of mathematics, logical evidence and ethics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science

Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.See full show notes here

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

AI pioneer YOSHUA BENGIO, Godfather of AI, reveals the DANGERS of Agentic AI, killer robots, and cyber crime, and how we MUST build AI that won't harm people…before it's too late.  Professor Yoshua Bengio is a Computer Science Professor at the Université de Montréal and one of the 3 original Godfathers of AI. He is the most-cited scientist in the world on Google Scholar, a Turing Award winner, and the founder of LawZero, a non-profit organisation focused on building safe and human-aligned AI systems.  He explains: ◼️Why agentic AI could develop goals we can't control ◼️How killer robots and autonomous weapons become inevitable ◼️The hidden cyber crime and deepfake threat already unfolding ◼️Why AI regulation is weaker than food safety laws ◼️How losing control of AI could threaten human survival [00:00] Why Have You Decided to Step Into the Public Eye?   [02:53] Did You Bring Dangerous Technology Into the World?   [05:23] Probabilities of Risk   [08:18] Are We Underestimating the Potential of AI?   [10:29] How Can the Average Person Understand What You're Talking About?   [13:40] Will These Systems Get Safer as They Become More Advanced?   [20:33] Why Are Tech CEOs Building Dangerous AI?   [22:47] AI Companies Are Getting Out of Control   [24:06] Attempts to Pause Advancements in AI   [27:17] Power Now Sits With AI CEOs   [35:10] Jobs Are Already Being Replaced at an Alarming Rate   [37:27] National Security Risks of AI   [43:04] Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)   [44:44] Ads   [48:34] The Risk You're Most Concerned About   [49:40] Would You Stop AI Advancements if You Could?   [54:46] Are You Hopeful?   [55:45] How Do We Bridge the Gap to the Everyday Person?   [56:55] Love for My Children Is Why I'm Raising the Alarm   [01:00:43] AI Therapy   [01:02:43] What Would You Say to the Top AI CEOs?   [01:07:31] What Do You Think About Sam Altman?   [01:09:37] Can Insurance Companies Save Us From AI?   [01:12:38] Ads   [01:16:19] What Can the Everyday Person Do About This?   [01:18:24] What Citizens Should Do to Prevent an AI Disaster   [01:20:56] Closing Statement   [01:22:51] I Have No Incentives   [01:24:32] Do You Have Any Regrets?   [01:27:32] Have You Received Pushback for Speaking Out Against AI?   [01:28:02] What Should People Do in the Future for Work?   Follow Yoshua: LawZero - https://bit.ly/44n1sDG  Mila - https://bit.ly/4q6SJ0R  Website - https://bit.ly/4q4RqiL  You can purchase Yoshua's book, ‘Deep Learning (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series)', here: https://amzn.to/48QTrZ8  The Diary Of A CEO: ◼️Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/  ◼️Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook  ◼️The 1% Diary is back - limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt  ◼️The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition) - https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb  ◼️Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt  ◼️Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb  Sponsors:  Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/DOAC  Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Rubrik - To learn more, head to https://rubrik.com

Episode Description: To stop the POGs' prediction network, Max and Molly realize they need help—and fast. However, they are torn on whether or not they can trust Charlene.  To test her honesty, they recreate an experiment with a “lost” wallet stuffed with cash. Will Charlene pass the test?  As math, probability, and human behavior collide, the Problem Solvers learn that trust might be the most valuable currency of all. Math Concepts: Ratios and fractions; Percent conversion; Probability and win–loss percentages in sports; Division and rounding; Estimation and Averages; Multiplication with large numbersHistory/Geography Concepts: Real-world behavioral science experiment on lost wallets (conducted across 40 countries); Quarantine and disease prevention (mono); The concept of global research studies and data collection

This week on the California Sports Lawyer Podcast, host Jeremy Evans examines a growing question in modern sports: who owns probability. As leagues, sportsbooks, data firms, and media platforms expand real-time analytics and betting content, win probabilities, predictive models, and live odds are becoming valuable assets. Jeremy explains how probability is created, packaged, and monetized across broadcasts, apps, and betting platforms, and where the legal lines fall between raw sports data, proprietary modeling, and intellectual property. The episode also explores what this means for leagues and teams asserting control over official data, sportsbooks building differentiated products, and media partners using probability to shape fan engagement. Finally, we look ahead at how rights deals and disputes may evolve as probability becomes a core part of the sports product. (Season 7, Episode 49). Copyright 2025. California Sports Lawyer. All Rights Reserved. (www.CSLlegal.com) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Week 15 NFL playoff probabilities and Tommy Yarrish joins the show.

You think you're rational? Think again. We love feeling like thoughtful decision-makers, but the truth is we're riddled with cognitive shortcuts. Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize-winning work breaks down the systems of our mind. We constantly substitute hard questions with easy ones; e.g. Buying a stock because you like the company, not because you've done the data. This episode cuts through the 300,000-word book to show you exactly how these shortcuts lead to everything from bad investments to pointless stress about the weather. It's time to stop letting your brain's simple tricks run your whole life. Stop overestimating the importance of your current stress. Identify and reduce low-level daily pains (like a bad commute) for massive life returns. Implement a "sleep-on-it" rule to override System 1's instant commitments. Why let a lazy brain ruin your best decisions? Start thinking slower today. Further Reading: ⁠Thinking Fast and Slow⁠ - Daniel Kahneman ⁠Predictably Irrational⁠ - Dan Ariely SPONSORS

If the phrase "Bayesian calculus" makes you run for the hills, you're not alone! Bayesian logic can sound intimidating at first, but if you give it a little time, you'll understand how useful it can be to evaluate the evidence for design in the natural world. On this ID The Future, Dr. Jonathan McLatchie gives us a beginner's guide to Bayesian thinking and teaches us how it can be used to build a strong cumulative case for intelligent design, as well as how we can use it in our everyday lives. Enjoying the podcast? Leave a written review at Apple Podcasts to help new listeners find the show! Source

Science has an incredibly impressive track record of uncovering nonintuitive ideas about the universe that turn out to be surprisingly accurate. It can be tempting to think of scientific discoveries as being carefully constructed atop a rock-solid foundation. In reality, scientific progress is tentative and fallible. Scientists propose models, assign them probabilities, and run tests to see whether they succeed or fail. In cosmologist Andrew Jaffe's new book, The Random Universe, he illustrates how models and probability help us make sense of the cosmos.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/11/10/335-andrew-jaffe-on-models-probability-and-the-universe/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Andrew Jaffe received his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Chicago. He is currently a professor of astrophysics and cosmology and Director of the Imperial Centre for Inference and Cosmology at Imperial College, London. His research lies at the intersection of theoretical and observational cosmology, including the Planck Surveyor, Euclid, LISA, and Simons Observatory collaborations.Web siteImperial web pageGoogle Scholar publicationsAmazon author pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1898

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1917