Podcasts about Probability

In this episode of Communicable, Emily McDonald and Josh Davis are joined by Roger Lewis (USA) and Ian Marschner (Australia) to compare and contrast Bayesian and frequentist statistical approaches. The panel discusses the fundamental principles of both methods, common misconceptions, and the extent to which they are often more similar than many realise. Together, they explore their use in clinical trial design, analysis, and reporting, including adaptive trials and sequential learning. Additional topics include sample size misconceptions, regulatory versus clinical thresholds, and the challenges of interpreting post hoc reanalyses of negative trials.This episode was edited by Kathryn Hostettler and the executive producer of Communicable is Angela Huttner.  Further reading:Berry SM, et al. Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series). Boca Raton (FL): CRC Press; 2010. FDA Guidance Document: Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological Products FDA, 2026, https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/use-bayesian-methodology-clinical-trials-drug-and-biological-productsLee TC, et al. Contextualizing the use of corticosteroids in severe Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia through a Bayesian lens. CMI Comms 2025, https://www.cmi-comms.org/article/S2950-5909(25)00082-4/fulltextLivingston EH and Lewis RJ. JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods, https://jamaevidence.mhmedical.com/Book.aspx?bookId=2742Marschner I. Confidence distributions for treatment effects in clinical trials: Posteriors without priors. Stat Med 2024, doi: 10.1002/sim.10000.Whitehead J. The design and analysis of sequential clinical trials. Revised 2nd ed. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons; 1997.

We're podcasting per the launch of the World Cup-tracking Probability Cup, but of course, just had to talk about Wednesday night's NBA Finals classic. The BIG question on my mind: Should predictors/gamblers price in the NBA's massive incentive to make this great series continue? Topics!* Knicks–Spurs Finals comeback analysis and whether San Antonio collapsed or New York surged.* How teams should manage volatility differently when protecting large leads versus playing from behind.* Debate over NBA referee incentives, league interests, and the possibility of series-extension bias.* SportsPredict's World Cup Probability Cup and using prediction contests to identify analytical talent.* Whether modern hiring should adopt a “Moneyball” approach by measuring forecasting skill instead of relying on traditional credentials.* Is the big money in studying idiot sports predictors or geniuses?Again, join our Probability Cup contest and perhaps win an iPad Pro ($1,000 value) or $200 Ticketmaster gift card. Accept the challenge and learn more at sportspredict.com/probabilitycup.House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of our show, Captain Ingle and I set a course for the 24th century and Federation station Deep Space 9. After discovering that he was illegally genetically augmented by his parents, Doctor Bashir meets with a group of fellow augments to give them a sense that someone who has been thus modified can live a normal life in The United Federation of Planets. Join us as we go boldly!

Check out the show on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpooeG6v2Bk&list=PLzlOUy5O5WpfrW07p50dtK55vnb7CcK1h&pp=sAgCRepentance on Stream #178 (06/18/2021)(00:00) Melons and Manufactured Outrage(07:48) Statistics and Probability(15:23) Drinking Habits(20:06) Regional Foods(29:54) Spoilers and Childhood MoviesRepentance on Stream #179 (06/19/2021)(40:42) Crypto and NFTs(52:01) Customer Service Interactions

George travels to South America to investigate a sure-fire gambling system at a casino called "Caesar's." Unfortunately, the man who invented the system has been murdered and his formula is missing! - Originally aired September 29, 1952

This week we are getting nerdy as we explore one of the most fascinating and often overlooked aspects of Human Design: Perspective. As the world feels increasingly overwhelming and attention is pulled in countless directions, understanding your unique Perspective can help reduce mental anxiety, create healthier filters around information, and bring you back into alignment. We dive into the six Human Design Perspectives—Survival, Possibility, Power, Wanting, Probability, and Personal—and explain how each one offers a unique lens for observing the world. You'll learn why you're designed to focus on a specific aspect of life and how embracing your natural Perspective can help you feel more grounded, empowered, and mentally clear.   Key Takeaways: Why mental overwhelm often comes from trying to see and process everything instead of honoring your natural Perspective. How your Perspective reveals the unique way your mind is designed to observe the world and offer valuable insights. How each of the six Perspectives has a specific area of genius—from seeing possibilities and probabilities to understanding power dynamics, survival needs, personal impact, and human fulfillment. Why understanding your Perspective can help you create healthier boundaries around media consumption and information overload. Why trusting the observations you're naturally designed to make can help reduce anxiety and allow you to contribute your unique wisdom to the collective.   Free Mini-Courses!: FREE Transits & The Harmonic Gate Mini-Course FREE Human Design Readings 101 Masterclass Join us in Your Human Design Besties! Get our book: Your Human Design! Online Human Design Reader Training 64 Gates & Gene Keys Training Future trainings and Retreats can be found on daylunalife.com Instagram: @‌d.a.y.l.u.n.a    

In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier speaks with Peter Nakada, Chief Education Officer at Stone Ridge Asset Management, about alternative investments and the role they can play in building more resilient retirement portfolios. They examine why traditional portfolios are often overly dependent on corporate profits and interest rates, and how “true alternatives” like reinsurance may provide diversification benefits that traditional alternatives cannot. Peter explains catastrophe bonds, quota shares, risk premiums, and the behavioral challenges investors face when allocating to alternative asset classes during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.    Topics covered:  Why traditional portfolios may be overly tied to stocks and bonds The difference between traditional alternatives and “true alternatives” How reinsurance works and why it exists Understanding catastrophe bonds and quota shares Natural disaster risk as an investable risk premium Hard and soft insurance markets and how pricing adjusts after losses Why reinsurance may help improve portfolio resilience in retirement Expected return assumptions for reinsurance strategies Portfolio allocation considerations for alternative investments Behavioral challenges investors face during periods of natural disasters Probability biases and investor psychology in alternative asset classes Why staying invested through market cycles matters    Useful Links:    Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/  TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/  Peter Nakada on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-nakada  Stone Ridge: https://www.stoneridgeam.com/  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) 

ServiceNow is down almost while the market sits at all-time highs. That kind of divergence is exactly what options traders look for. The trade: buy one 110 put, sell three 100 puts for a net credit of $190. That structure gives you a break-even near $95, right where the stock was trading just a few weeks ago. Probability of profit sits at 86% and theta decay runs at $10 a day. The only catch is buying power this one uses about $7,600. But buying a 75 put as a wing brings that down under $3,000 with almost no impact on the credit or the probability.

Most people think they have a financial plan. But when you ask what that plan actually is, the answer is usually: "Some mutual funds, ETFs, a broker… and hopefully retirement works out." That is not a financial plan. Today, on Financial Detox, Jason and Alex break down the massive difference between simply owning investments and having a true, interactive financial plan designed around your life, taxes, spending, goals, and long-term decision-making. You'll see how real planning works: Modeling lifetime income and spending Stress testing for volatility and inflation Analyzing taxes and future cash flow Testing retirement scenarios in real time Creating clarity around what you can actually afford The goal is not just portfolio growth. The goal is freedom, confidence, and the ability to make decisions without fear. What we cover in this episode:

Justin Spillers, founder of Real Estate Alpha, reveals how a decade of disciplined strategy paved his path to dominating Ohio's multifamily market from building a proprietary property database to mastering broker relationships and innovative outreach tactics. Imagine never missing a prime opportunity because your data is 90% accurate, and you're always top of mind with owners and brokers. Justin shares the exact methods that deliver high-conversion outreach: personalized video mailers, creative direct-owner campaigns, and the power of consistent follow-up. You'll discover how meticulous data scrubbing, the right CRM tools, and AI-enhanced processes keep his pipeline overflowing even in slow markets. Justin Spillers Partner & Manager of Real Estate Alpha Based in: Minster, Ohio Where to find them: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinspillers/ realestatealpha.io/ Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit https://malabarhillcapital.com/ for more info. Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we are joined for the 4th time by physicist Sam Kuypers. From his Conjecture Institute profile: “Quantum physicist, interested in foundational questions. In his research, published in reputable scientific journals, he explores the quantum theory of time, the many-worlds interpretation, and locality.”We discuss: Is probability theory true? Is it useful? What is the connection between probability theory and physics? Does the many worlds interpretation make probability theory more true or less true?⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Magick is not what you think it is. Strip away every movie, every Halloween costume, every Satanic Panic TV special from the 80s, and what you're left with is a probability engineering technology that has been systematically kept from public knowledge for at least three thousand years. Not because it doesn't work. Because it does. And a technology that works — that gives the practitioner a genuine advantage in shaping outcomes — is the last thing a ruling class shares with the people it rules.Thanks to the TIN FOIL MULISHAExclusive episodes on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/c/ufonopodcastJoin the Tin Foil Mulisha Discord:⁠ https://discord.gg/PQyaJzkt4Y⁠Paypal Donation ⁠https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/Y6WRSW9F2JBSCStripe Donation https://buy.stripe.com/aFa6oGeiXamjdlW39HgUM00Buy Merch⁠ https://ufono.dashery.com/ | https://ufono-podcast.creator-spring.com/Buy Mushrooms⁠ https://www.schedule35.co/us/ (Code: U1173687US240607)⁠Email: Iwant2believe115@gmail.com

Magick is not what you think it is. Strip away every movie, every Halloween costume, every Satanic Panic TV special from the 80s, and what you're left with is a probability engineering technology that has been systematically kept from public knowledge for at least three thousand years. Not because it doesn't work. Because it does. And a technology that works — that gives the practitioner a genuine advantage in shaping outcomes — is the last thing a ruling class shares with the people it rules.Thanks to the TIN FOIL MULISHAExclusive episodes on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/c/ufonopodcastJoin the Tin Foil Mulisha Discord:⁠ https://discord.gg/PQyaJzkt4Y⁠Paypal Donation ⁠https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/Y6WRSW9F2JBSCStripe Donation https://buy.stripe.com/aFa6oGeiXamjdlW39HgUM00Buy Merch⁠ https://ufono.dashery.com/ | https://ufono-podcast.creator-spring.com/Buy Mushrooms⁠ https://www.schedule35.co/us/ (Code: U1173687US240607)⁠Email: Iwant2believe115@gmail.com

Thales von Milet gilt als der erste Philosoph des Abendlandes — und das, obwohl wir keine einzige seiner eigenen Zeilen besitzen. Wer war dieser Mann, der in einer Welt voller Götter wagte zu sagen: Braucht es wirklich diese, um die Natur und ihre Ereignisse zu erklären? Gibt es denn nicht eine logische Erklärung?Heute fragen wir: Wer war Thales wirklich — Denker, Politiker oder Pragmatiker? Warum war ausgerechnet Wasser das Urprinzip? Wie sagte er eine Sonnenfinsternis voraus? Und wie kommt es, dass ein Mann aus dem 6. Jahrhundert v. Chr. bis heute in jedem Schulbuch steht?Quellen:AristotelesCiceroDiogenes LaertiosEusebius von CaesareaHerodotHieronymosHomerKyrill von AlexandriaPlatonPlinius der ÄlterePlutarchProklosLiteratur:Cooke, The History of Mathematics: A Brief Course, 2005Diels, / Kranz (Hrsg.), Die Fragmente der Vorsokratiker, 1951Dunham, Journey Through Genius: The Great Theorems of MathematicsFerguson, Pythagoras: His Lives and the Legacy of a Rational Universe, 2011Gemelli, M. (Hrsg.), Die Vorsokratiker, 2007Gericke, Mathematik in Antike und Orient, 1984Guthrie, A History of Greek Philosophy: The Earlier Presocratics and the Pythagoreans, 1978Herda, Greek (and our) views of the Karians, 2013Herrmann, Die antike Mathematik, 2020Lawson, Science in the Ancient World: An Encyclopedia, 2004Leloux, The Battle of the Eclipse (May 28, 585 BC): (...), 2016Mittelstraß, Hylozoismus. In: Enzyklopädie Philosophie und WissenschaftstheorieNeugebauer, The Exact Sciences in Antiquity, 1969Ebd., A History of Ancient Mathematical Astronomy, 1975Nietzsche, The Pre-Platonic Philosophers, 2001O'Grady, Thales of Miletus: The Beginnings of Western Science and Philosophy, 2017Querejeta, On the Eclipse of Thales, Cycles and Probabilities, 2011Riedweg, Pythagoras: His Life, Teachings, and Influence, 2005Russell, A History of Western Philosophy, Simon & Schuster, 1945Schirren/ Rechenauer, Biographie, 2013Schwaetzer, Mystik als Ursprung der Naturphilosophie, 2022Wenskus, Die angebliche Vorhersage einer Sonnenfinsternis durch Thales von Milet. (...), 2016Wöhrle, Thales, ein Phönizier?, 2015Wöhrle (Hrsg.), Thales (= Traditio Praesocratica. Die Milesier, Band 1), 2009Musik:Ancient Frequencies via PixabayDulcimer Dance Persian Arabic Hammered via Pixabay

Guidance Part 5 (Various Scriptures) We conclude our series by looking at the role of unusual events or coincidences in guidance. These are sometimes called signs and can be useful but are highly dangerous if misused.

In today's episode, I talk about the Steelers' potential interest in Brendan Sorsby and then explore Antonio Brown and a potential HOF bid in 2027. Make sure to follow us on all platforms to keep listening to our Steelers analysis! Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2X4xxKryrcuQowgv61L0X1 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleav-in-steelers/id1485137299 iHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-bleav-in-steelers-52369965/ TuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Podcasts/Bleav-in-Steelers-p1264828/?topicId=545505812 Jack's X: https://x.com/imjackonthecall Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

https://teachhoops.com/ If you want to build a team that can survive a late-game run, you have to stop being a "Joystick Coach." When you control every movement from the sideline, you are building a team that is (1)__________ rather than (2)__________. A championship program is built on the belief that the coach's job is to prepare the mind, while the player's job is to (3)__________ the moment. The "Zero-Second" Rule: Players should know their next move (4)__________ they catch the ball. This reduces mental (5)__________ and keeps the defense in a constant state of recovery. Constraints-Led Training: Instead of running "dry" 5-on-0 sets, use (6)__________ games to force players to solve problems in real-time. If you want them to make better decisions, you must increase the (7)__________ of those decisions in every practice. The "V" Word: To truly let players lead, a coach must practice (8)__________. This means allowing a turnover to happen in June so that the player has the (9)__________ to fix it in January. Next Play Speed: The most important decision a player makes is how they respond to a (10)__________. A player-led team has zero (11)__________ after a whistle. Dependent: If they always look at the bench for the play, they can't adapt to the flow of the game. Autonomous: You want "thinkers" who can solve puzzles without a timeout. Execute: The plan is yours; the execution is theirs. Before: This is the hallmark of high-IQ basketball. Friction: Indecision is the enemy of $eFG%$. Small-Sided: 2v2 and 3v3 drills create more "touches" and "choices" per minute. Rep Density: Don't just count shots; count the number of decisions made. Vulnerability: You have to be okay with "ugly" practices where learning is actually happening. Experience: Knowledge is what you read; experience is what you do when things go wrong. Mistake: The "Next Play" is always the most important one. Hang-Time: Eliminate the emotional baggage that slows down transition. When you let players make decisions, you are moving from Transactional Coaching (do this to get that) to Transformational Coaching (becoming the type of person who knows what to do). The PhilosophyThe Worksheet for CoachesThe Coach's Master KeyWhy This MattersStageThe Coach's RoleThe Player's RolePreparationDesigns the "Constraints" and the "Standard."Studies the "Why" and masters the skill.Live ActionObserves and takes notes for the "Truth Room."Makes "Zero-Second" decisions based on the read.The DebriefAsks: "What did you see on that play?"Reflects on the "Probability" of that choice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

.entry-img img{ display:none !important; } .single .hentry .entry-img{ display:none !important; } https://open.spotify.com/episode/35qKYO14JG1pUeM5uoCQPg In a world of rapid disruption and volatility, finance teams can no longer rely on single‑point forecasts and rigid spreadsheets. They must understand ranges of possible outcomes, quantify risk, and communicate uncertainty in ways that enable better, faster strategic decisions, turning uncertainty from a threat into a competitive advantage. In this episode of The GrowCFO Show, host Kevin Appleby speaks with Jason Brisbane, Founder of Finhelm, about how AI and Monte Carlo simulation are reshaping finance by replacing deterministic forecasts with probability‑driven models. Brisbane shares his journey from FP&A and treasury at Adobe to founding Finhelm, a platform that brings “computational finance” into the CFO organization and assigns an “uncertainty exposure score” to models, essentially a credit score for forecast risk. This approach helps FP&A teams treat variances as learning signals rather than failures and move from static scenario planning to continuous simulation at scale. The discussion also explores how probabilistic modeling supports risk management and AI governance, including “nutrition labels” for AI‑enabled processes so domain experts can understand volatility, detect drift, and know when human intervention is required. Key topics covered: Shift from deterministic to probabilistic finance: Brisbane explains how most organizations still rely on single‑point, deterministic forecasts, and how Monte Carlo simulation combined with AI introduces probability distributions, helping teams understand the likelihood of outcomes rather than relying on one number. Uncertainty Exposure Score as a “credit score” for forecasts: Finhelm applies Monte Carlo simulation to generate an “uncertainty exposure score,” giving finance leaders a clear measure of volatility and risk embedded in their models over time. Variances as learning, not failure: Brisbane argues that probabilistic finance allows FP&A teams to reframe forecast variances as opportunities for learning and calibration, rather than signs of failure, driving a more mature approach to performance management. From scenario to simulation in risk management: The discussion extends Monte Carlo beyond financial forecasting into risk, highlighting how organizations can move from simplistic low/medium/high risk grids to simulated, monetized risk impacts across portfolios and risk registers. AI “nutrition labels” and governance: Brisbane introduces the idea of a “nutrition label” for AI‑enabled processes, where risk scores and volatility bands help domain experts decide when it is safe for autonomous agents to operate and when human intervention is required. AI‑native build by a finance domain expert: As a finance professional rather than a traditional technologist, Brisbane describes how he is using AI‑native development tools to build Finhelm, demonstrating how domain experts can now create sophisticated, AI‑driven solutions without large in‑house engineering teams. Links Jason Brisbane on LinkedIn Kevin Appleby on LinkedIn GrowCFO Mentoring Timestamps:  00:00 – 04:30 – Jason shares his background from Adobe's rotation program through FP&A and product roles, and explains Finhelm's mission: bringing computational finance and Monte Carlo simulation into the CFO organization to add probability and distribution to traditional forecasts. 04:30 – 08:30 – Appleby and Brisbane break down Monte Carlo as running hundreds or thousands of simulations across best/likely/worst‑case assumptions to produce a forecast with confidence bands instead of a single number, reframing how finance understands uncertainty. 08:30 – 13:45 – Appleby recounts a defense procurement project where Monte Carlo was used to estimate 25‑year life‑cycle costs and readiness, illustrating why probabilistic modeling is essential when multiple uncertain drivers interact over long horizons. 14:00 – 18:30 – Brisbane contrasts the classic “three‑tab spreadsheet” (worst/base/best) with probabilistic finance, arguing that Monte Carlo and uncertainty exposure scores allow FP&A teams to treat variance as learning data and continually recalibrate models. 18:30 – 22:30 – The conversation turns to risk registers and enterprise risk, discussing how organizations can move beyond low/medium/high matrices to simulated, monetary impact of risks, and how this supports more informed resource allocation and strategic decisions. 21:30 – 26:00 – Brisbane introduces the concept of scoring volatility to determine when AI agents can operate autonomously within “safe bands” and when domain experts must intervene, aligning probabilistic finance with AI governance and auditability requirements. 25:20 – 32:00 – Brisbane outlines Finhelm's early traction in law, professional services, and healthcare, and shares his vision that within 12–18 months, FP&A teams will routinely use Monte Carlo and uncertainty scoring to answer deeper questions about risk and performance. Find out more about GrowCFO If you enjoyed this podcast, you can subscribe to the GrowCFO Show with your favorite podcast app. The GrowCFO show is listed in the Apple podcast directory, Spotify and many others. Why not subscribe there today? That way, you never miss an episode. GrowCFO is a great place to extend your professional network. Join GrowCFO as a free member today and participate in our regular networking events and webinars. Premium members can also access our extensive training center and CFO Digital Toolkit. You can enroll in our flagship Future CFO or Finance Leader programs here. You can find out more and join today at growcfo.net

Episode: 1577 The Monty Hall Problem and the unexpected value of information.  Today, we learn not to turn our back on information.

MSE host Bill Powers applies Howard Marks' January 2020 memo “You Bet” to junior mining speculation, emphasizing that decision quality and outcomes aren't the same because both luck and process drive results. Drawing on Annie Duke's book “Thinking in Bets,” Powers urges probabilistic thinking, accurate assessment of one's own skills and being comfortable uncertainty. Marks' framework distinguishes games by hidden information, luck, and skill. Powers argues junior resource markets are less efficient “alpha markets” where skill does matter. A key lesson is evaluating the “proposition” (odds relative to the price) rather than just picking the “favorite” or “best.” Action items: read the memo, read Duke's book, and audit recent investments for accurate proposition identification and probabilistic reasoning. 00:00 Mindset Reset 00:31 Howard Marks Memo 02:10 Process Not Outcome 04:34 Thinking in Bets 06:16 Games Luck Skill 08:19 Alpha Markets Edge 09:06 The Proposition 12:02 Nifty Fifty Junk Bonds 14:14 Eight Gambling Lessons 19:57 Second Level Thinking 20:27 Action Items Howard Mark's “You Bet” memo: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/you-bet.pdf?sfvrsn=785dbe65_8 Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets”: https://www.annieduke.com/books/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Bill Powers is not a licensed financial advisor. Mining Stock Education offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

The road to Sorare 27 is officially here, but a major question mark is hanging over the market: Will the platform's biggest spenders actually buy in again? In today's episode of Sorare with Laird, I'm joined by  @HarryTrades  to tackle the reality that many high-volume, high-spend managers are considering pulling back their budgets for the upcoming 2026/27 transition. In this livestream, we discuss:• The Probability of a Spend Strike: Why "whales" and high-budget managers are hesitating on Sorare 27.• The Market Ripple Effects: What happens to gallery values, liquidity, and card utility if the top end of the market stops buying?• The Catalyst for Change: The specific structural, competition, and reward issues driving this sentiment. • How Sorare Fixes This: What the product team needs to do right now to win back the confidence of higher spenders.Drop your thoughts in the live chat—are you planning to spend more, less, or the same for Sorare 27?Support the content by joining the Laird Social Club on Patreon: https://patreon.com/andrewmlairdJoin the Harry Trades YouTube community: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8HSj8vZDHSGmk5yP46SjtQ/membership⚽️ Become a Sorare manager today: https://sorare.pxf.io/WyLBnZ

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – May 14, 2026 appeared first on KPFA.

The Parent Playbook: Navigating the "Sideline Culture" https://teachhoops.com/ In a 30-year coaching career, you learn that you aren't just coaching the 15 players on your roster; you are managing a 45-person ecosystem that includes parents, guardians, and extended "inner circles." Navigating parent behaviors is less about "conflict resolution" and more about Environmental Design. Most parent friction occurs in the Information Vacuum—the space between what you see in the gym every day and what the parent hopes for at the dinner table. To build a championship culture, you must be the Chief Transparency Officer, ensuring that the "Standard" is so clearly communicated that there is no room for a counter-narrative to grow. The greatest tool in your belt is the Mandatory Buffer. Emotions are highest in the 15 minutes following a tough loss. The Standard: No parent-coach communication regarding game strategy or playing time until 24 hours have passed. The Protocol: Require that all concerns be addressed via a scheduled meeting rather than a "sideline ambush." This moves the conversation from the emotional (the heat of the game) to the logical (the film and the data). As we often discuss in the world of analytics, "The numbers don't have feelings." When a parent challenges playing time, move the conversation away from "opinion" and toward Objective Efficiency. The "Truth Room" Metrics: If a player is struggling with their Effective Field Goal Percentage ($eFG%$) or has a high turnover rate in transition, show the data. The Probability of Success: Use the stats to explain the "Why." For example: "Our team's defensive rating improves by $12%$ when we have this specific rotation on the floor." It is very difficult to argue with a $95%$ confidence interval. Parent anxiety usually stems from a lack of Role Definition. If a player thinks they are a "Green Light" shooter but the coach sees them as a "Defensive Specialist," the parent is caught in the middle. The Solution: Conduct mid-season "Role Reviews." Give the player (and by extension, the parent) a clear list of the three things they must do to earn more minutes. The Transformation: You shift the parent from being a "Critic" of your decisions to being a "Partner" in their child's development. They now know exactly what "success" looks like in your system. You cannot coach a kid hard if you haven't made a deposit into their parent's Trust Account. The Strategy: Make it a point to send a "Positive Pulse" text or email to a parent when their child does something that doesn't show up in the box score—diving for a loose ball, cheering for a teammate, or showing "Next Play" speed after an error. The Impact: When you eventually have to have a "Hard Truth" conversation about playing time, the parent listens because they know you see the whole child, not just the stat line. Navigating parent behaviors in sports, basketball coaching communication, parent-coach partnership, team culture, high school basketball, youth sports leadership, "The Villanova Way," Jay Wright coaching, basketball analytics, $eFG%$, role clarity in basketball, athletic leadership, program building, coach development, mental toughness, leadership standards, coach unplugged, teach hoops. Show Notes1. The "24-Hour Rule" and the Communication Protocol2. Using Data as a Shield3. The "Role Clarity" AuditThe Behavior Matrix: Challenge vs. StrategyParent BehaviorThe "Root Cause"The Collaborative FixThe "Sideline Coach"Lack of trust in the system.Invite them to a "Open Practice" to see the tactical "Why."The "Minutes Counter"Focus on individual vs. team.Share the $VORP$ (Value Over Replacement) data in private.The "Silent Sulker"Perceived disrespect to the child.The "Active Reach"—spend 2 minutes talking about non-hoops life.The "Culture Leader"High buy-in and energy.Empower them to lead the "Parent Council" or team meals.4. The "Relational Capital" DepositSEO Keywords Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

May 4, 2026 - Season 16, Episode 131 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the expectations for the annual releasing of the regular season schedule and how we might be waiting two more weeks for that event to transpire. Alex has recently completed profiles on two of the undrafted free agents recently signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Laith Marjan and DT Kevin Jobity Jr., so on the heels of those being published, we discuss what he learned about both players. Now that we have fully looked at and learned a lot about each of the members of the Steelers 2026 draft class, Alex and I give our expectations for each player when it comes to their rookie seasons. We spend a lot of time talking about QB Drew Allar and KR/WR Kaden Wetjen during this segment as well. With there being a lot of talk right now about the Steelers potentially signing OLB Nick Herbig to a contract extension this offseason, Alex and I discuss how it might be in his best interest to bet on himself in 2026. We look at a few comparable players and contracts related to Herbig at this point in the offseason as we attempt to find a target market price for him that he and the Steelers might be willing to move forward with in the coming weeks and months. This 113-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap above and we end this show by answering a few emails we have received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ian Watson. Photo: Glenn Hall. Wikipedia Commons Ian Watson (1943-2026), unconventional British science fiction and fantasy writer, who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program, recorded in Oakland at Westercon 40 on July 2, 1987. Ian Watson (1943-2026) who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, was an unconventional author whose works brimmed with ideas and philosophical turnings. Author of over thirty one novels, not including several written in the world created by the Warhammer 40,000 game, there were also eleven collections of short stories, plus a catalogue of poems. An avowed socialist, he also stood in elections as a Labour Party candidate in the days before Tony Blair. His novel, The Power, discussed in the interview, was published later in 1987, and can now be found, along with many of his novels, as Kindle book through Amazon. In early 1990, Ian Watson received a call from the assistant to legendary film-maker Stanley Kubrick to work on a science fiction film based on a story about a robot boy written by Brian Aldiss. For the next several months, he and Kubrick hammered out a screenplay treatment until Kubrick, in December of that year, said it was what he wanted, barring some changes, but shortly thereafter began work on what would be his final film, Eyes Wide Shut. Kubrick died on March f7, 1999 at the age of seventy. Shortly afterward, Steven Spielberg, using Watson's treatment, wrote a screenplay which became his film, A.I. Artificial Intelligence. You can find Ian Watson's essay about his work with Kubrick by going to this link. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on May 2, 2026. Sound quality (speed) is variable. The post Probabilities Archive: Ian Watson (1943-2026), Surrealist British Science Fiction Author appeared first on KPFA.

In this creative and adventure-filled episode of The Tiberius Show, we're joined by Brian Hazzard, founder of Wandering Pine Press and a tabletop role-playing game designer who traded a high-paying tech career to build worlds, tell stories, and bring imagination to life. Brian shares how RPGs work, what it's like designing games for thousands of players, and how creativity, storytelling, and even probability all come together to create unforgettable experiences. Whether you love games, storytelling, or dream of building your own worlds—this episode is packed with inspiration.Discussion Points●    What is a TTRPG?: How tabletop role-playing games work and why they're all about storytelling and imagination.●    Game Designer Role: What Brian actually does when creating immersive worlds and systems.●    From Tech to Creativity: Why he left a six-figure tech career to follow his passion.●    Kickstarter Success: What it felt like launching his first game and gaining support from fans.●    Creativity & Inspiration: Why “ripping off ideas” can actually lead to originality.●    Story vs Mechanics: How he balances rules and storytelling when designing games.●    Beginner vs Expert Players: Why short campaigns and narrative depth matter more than complex systems.●    Family & Business: Building a company with his wife and balancing creativity with practicality.●    RV Lifestyle: Preparing for a life of travel while continuing to design games on the road.●    Advice for Creators: Why starting small and finishing projects is the key to success.●    Probability in Games: How math helps balance gameplay and create exciting challenges.●    Integrity & Lessons Learned: Real-life mistakes, honesty, and how they shape personal growth.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-tiberius-show--3352195/support.

Ethan and Matt L join me as we recap the Cheesehead Championship and talk about that no matter how good of a player you are, your dice control your fate.

A Google Research blog post warns that future Quantum Computers (CRQCs) could break Bitcoin's encryption, with updated estimates suggesting under 500,000 physical qubits could steal funds during transaction confirmations (roughly 9 minutes).Guest: Charles Hoskinson - CEO & Founder of Input OutputFollow Charles on X ➜ https://x.com/IOHK_Charles00:00 Intro00:10 Google scares everyone00:40 Justin Drake: 2032 roadmap needs to accelerate01:45 We took down Youtube video too02:00 How real is quantum threat?05:15 What blockchains are leading?07:00 Thoughts on eCash Hard Fork?09:40 Probability of Hard Fork?11:30 Midnight/Cardano saving Bitcoin?13:40 Enabling “Accredited Investor” rules?16:40 Canton vs Midnight19:40 Why not list Monument on RWA website?22:40 CLARITY Act odds: new red line?27:00 CLARITY Act endorse w/o reading it?30:00 Lazarus vs Quantum30:20 BTC Soft fork?30:45 Microstrategy Conspiracy31:00 KelpDAO vs Bridge sentiment31:40 Banks response to CLARITY32:15 XRP token utility22:45 Canton grift keeps giving?34:00 Proof-of-Stake vs Proof of Work35:00 Polymarket vs X35:30 USDCx Bridge Trustable?36:45 $SNEK on Solana & ETH?37:20 Tokenized stocks on cardano?38:00 Point-of-Sale failure?40:20 Canton Hack vs DeFi United?#Crypto #bitcoin #cardano~Bitcoin Quantum Threat Accelerates!

Episode: 1564 The Second Law of Thermodynamics and time's arrow.  Today, we see why time goes only from then to now.

Darshan H. Brahmbhatt, Podcast Editor of JACC: Advances, discusses a recently published original research paper on Development of a Predictive Tool in Patients With High Pretest Probability for Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy.

Get access to the 2026 NFL Draft/Rookie Guide for FREE from Chad Parsons (and a VIP Chat with the best dynasty owners on the planet) by signing up as an All-Pro at www.Patreon.com/UTH. Thanks for listening, and keep building those dynasties! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is retirement researcher Wade Pfau. Wade is the founder of Retirement Researcher, an educational resource on retirement planning for individuals and financial advisors. He's co-founder of the Retirement Income Style Awareness Tool and a co-host of the Retire With Style podcast. He's a professor of practice at the American College of Financial Services and a research fellow with the Limra Retirement Income Institute. And he's also a principal and director of retirement research for McLean Asset Management. Wade has written several books, including his most recent, a third edition of his Retirement Planning Guidebook. He holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He's also a chartered financial analyst. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Updates to the Retirement Planning Guidebook 00:00:29 Do Retirees Today Have a Stronger Starting Spending Rate? 00:04:03 Asset Allocation, Annuities, and Target-Date Funds 00:08:11 Retirement Income Styles 00:15:07 Non-US Safe Withdrawal Rates and Flexible Spending Strategies 00:23:55 Probability of Success and Estimating Longevity 00:27:47 Underspending, Organic Income, and Mortgage Payoff 00:35:46 Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone 00:39:20 Equity Glide Paths, Sequence Risk, and Delaying Social Security 00:46:43 Annuities: Private Equity Concerns and Due Diligence More Retirement Research From Wade Pfau Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path More From Morningstar What's Your Retirement Income Style? 8 Reasons You Might Need to Tweak Your Portfolio Wade Pfau: The Risks of Retirement Today If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine's weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Kris Millegan is an independent researcher, publisher & founder of TrineDay. Millegan's work focuses on secret societies, deep politics, intelligence agencies, occult symbolism, and the long shadow of covert state power. SPONSORS https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/zralgyl0 - Download Cash App Today. https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://gld.com - Use code DANNYJONES for 50% 0ff. https://butcherbox.com/danny - Get chicken breast or top sirloin for a year OR ground beef for life, PLUS $20 off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off EPISODE LINKS https://trineday.com FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Vietnam war was about drugs 02:13 - Kris' dad's career in the CIA 08:25 - CIA secret Kris' dad kept for 10 years 13:13 - Secret societies that run the world 19:44 - Skull & Bones secret society 23:25 - World's top secret societies 24:31 - The origin of the Illuminati in America 27:12 - How the opium trade fuels secret societies 32:12 - People are learning how the world really works 33:46 - How secret societies rule the world 36:35 - Cold fusion mini-nukes 42:53 - The tri-lateral commission 46:51 - Mass trauma rituals & death magic 51:52 - Failsafe devices of humanity 54:26 - How baby boomers were brainwashed 01:01:38 - Why they created internet & personal computers 01:05:17 - Americans should unite against the Epstein class 01:12:10 - How Nixon got into power 01:16:58 - The JFK assassination script 01:22:02 - Government mind control (Operation Bluebird) 01:27:43 - CIA's child mind control victims speak out 01:34:14 - Football as a front for mind control 01:38:43 - 9/11 01:45:53 - How Epstein ran a honey trap 01:49:14 - How to restore our government 01:53:23 - Science experiments done on Epstein's victims 02:01:48 - Probability of aliens & what they are 02:07:26 - The Epstein victims' painting 02:13:06 - Why we maybe didn't go to the moon 02:16:36 - The Pax Judaica end times theory 02:20:27 - The Chabad-Lubavitch society 02:23:47 - Why we don't have honest elections 02:28:40 - Secret societies that rule over nation states 02:35:36 - "We the people" should be in charge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ai Summary[Inspiring] This thought-provoking and insightful presentation explores one of life's biggest questions: can evolution and the Bible truly be reconciled? As Christadelphians, we examine the origins of life through a deeply expositional and Scripture-based lens, revealing a purposeful and designed creation that speaks powerfully of God's mind and intent.We consider two contrasting worldviews—one rooted in chance and randomness, the other in divine design and purpose. Through an outstanding exploration of Scripture, we uncover how the Bible consistently presents creation as intentional, meaningful, and guided by God's Word. From the intricate harmony of the Bible's structure to the complexity of life itself, the evidence points to a Creator whose work is both wonderful and revealing.We also examine the scientific claims surrounding evolution, acknowledging observable adaptation while questioning whether it can truly account for the origin and complexity of life. Through compelling examples, the limitations of random processes become evident, reinforcing the Biblical message of purposeful creation.Ultimately, this encouraging message highlights that our worldview shapes how we see God—not as distant or indifferent, but as actively working with purpose in both creation and our lives.Chapters00:00 – Introduction14:05 – Big Questions: Origins and Worldviews15:09 – Design vs Chance16:04 – The Bible as a Designed Book17:40 – God as Creator and Director of History18:44 – Evidence of Design in Creation19:27 – Genesis and the Power of God's Word21:08 – Creation Declares God's Glory22:07 – Purpose vs Randomness23:19 – God's Purpose for the Earth24:06 – Humanity in God's Image25:16 – Spiritual Creation and the Gospel26:01 – Genesis and the Rejection of Randomness29:22 – “After His Kind” and Created Order30:01 – Natural Selection: Limits and Observations33:13 – Irreducible Complexity34:54 – The Challenge of Life's Origin37:04 – Probability and Design Analogy38:24 – Summary: Creation vs Evolution40:13 – Can Evolution Fit the Bible?43:22 – Implications for Christ and Salvation45:47 – Scientific Attempts to Create Life49:36 – Worldview and Faith Today52:32 – ConclusionBible Verse Category

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Glenn Greenwald is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who famously published the Edward Snowden files. He hosts the System Update podcast & his work can be found at https://greenwald.substack.com SPONSORS https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://mengotomars.com - Use code DANNY for 50% Off & 3 Free Gifts. https://fastgrowingtrees.com - Use code DANNY for 20% off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off. EPISODE LINKS https://greenwald.substack.com @GlennGreenwald https://x.com/ggreenwald FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Joe Kent 06:04 - What happens after 7+ years in the CIA 09:05 - What Trump & Obama have in common 16:06 - Insider trading from Trump's circle 19:33 - Why Trump went silent on Israel & Epstein 22:35 - The most important part of the Epstein story 28:19 - Where Epstein got his money 33:12 - Hyper-normalization 36:39 - Howard Lutnick's relationship with Epstein 40:57 - "Left" and "right" is a psyop 48:54 - Israel's PR looks like panic 51:13 - Why all politicians become pro-Israel 56:05 - Most understated story of the year 59:20 - How Israel became so powerful 01:02:08 - Free speech suppression is changing 01:08:07 - New law in Australia is CRUSHING free speech 01:10:51 - The IHRA 01:16:51 - It's ILLEGAL to protest Israel in America 01:22:03 - The origin of Israel's hooks in America 01:28:51 - Will Tucker Carlson be the next US president? 01:34:41 - What if JD Vance speaks out against Trump 01:40:02 - Pete Hegseth & Biblical justifications for Iran war 01:43:34 - Islam in America 01:48:08 - Zorhan Mandani 01:51:57 - Special Forces will soon start moving into Kharg Island 01:59:46 - OInly argument for the war on Iran 02:03:50 - Probability of nuclear warfare 02:09:30 - The Epstein depositions 02:14:28 - How does Howard Lutnick still have a job 02:18:31 - 9/11 shadow commission 02:25:23 - What the "new" JFK files said 02:28:22 - How Glenn got involved with Edward Snowden 02:36:55 - Meeting Edward Snowden the first time 02:47:22 - Reaction to breaking the Edward Snowden story 02:51:20 - Edward Snowden could be pardoned Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Renato Renner (ETH Zurich) proves quantum mechanics contains logical contradictions that undermine its foundations.Quantum theory may be the most successful theory in history — and Renato Renner has proved it can't consistently describe itself. This is not a philosophical objection. It's a theorem. From there it spirals into black holes, reference frames, and why some of his students refused to continue working on the subject. This one is a quiet storm, blending the foundations of physics with something uncomfortably personal: the question of what you are. TIMESTAMPS: - 00:00:00 - Quantum Theory's Internal Contradiction - 00:05:51 - Recursive Consistency Checks - 00:11:00 - Wigner's Friend Paradox - 00:18:11 - Global vs. Local Inconsistency - 00:25:04 - The Inhabitant's Perspective - 00:31:12 - Modeling Multi-Agent Reasoning - 00:44:25 - Three Fundamental Assumptions - 00:56:36 - Quantum Reference Frames - 01:06:14 - Black Hole Information Paradox - 01:15:06 - Operationalizing Hawking Radiation - 01:24:48 - Realizability of Thought Experiments - 01:41:16 - Emotional Physics: Many Worlds - 01:50:03 - The Limits of Probability - 02:01:06 - Operationalizing the Measurement Problem - 02:15:41 - Generalized Probabilistic Theories - 02:29:16 - Quantum-Gravity Correspondence - 02:40:10 - The Source of Disagreement - 02:56:54 - Physics as Communication LINKS MENTIONED: - Renato's Papers: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OEBtlWgAAAAJ - Renato's Lecture at Helgoland [Lecture]: https://youtu.be/NxIyldEZzZI - Against Probability [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.18872 - Testing Quantum Theory with Thought Experiments [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.05314 - Quantum Advantage in Cryptography [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04078 - Quantum Theory Cannot Consistently Describe the Use of Itself [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07422 - Security of Quantum Key Distribution [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0512258 - Thought Experiments in a Quantum Computer [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06236 - The Black Hole Information Puzzle [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14653 - Quanundrum Software: https://github.com/jangnur/Quanundrum - Wigner's Friend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigner's_friend - Reimagining of Schrödinger's Cat [Article]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/reimagining-of-schroedingers-cat-breaks-quantum-mechanics-mdash-and-stumps-physicists1/ - Collapse Theory [Paper]: http://www.psiquadrat.de/downloads/grw86.pdf - Entropy of Hawking Radiation [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06872 - QBism [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.5209 - Respecting One's Fellow [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03572 - Why Do Humans Reason? [Paper]: https://www.dan.sperber.fr/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/MercierSperberWhydohumansreason.pdf - Quantum Mechanical Rules for Observed Observers [Paper]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47170-2 - Game Theory [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0262061414?tag=toe08-20 - Tim Maudlin [TOE]: https://youtu.be/fU1bs5o3nss - Jacob Barandes [TOE]: https://youtu.be/gEK4-XtMwro - Sean Carroll [TOE]: https://youtu.be/9AoRxtYZrZo - David Wallace [TOE]: https://youtu.be/4MjNuJK5RzM - David Bessis [TOE]: https://youtu.be/GHGi_XDqKNw More links at https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Guests do not pay to appear. #science Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal features long-form, technically detailed interviews with leading researchers in physics, mathematics, consciousness, and philosophy, exploring topics at the level of active research. For academics, graduate students, and anyone seeking depth beyond popular science. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it's not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting. Guest: Shandor Whitcher Participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence: https://www.economy.com/business-confidence/participate/ Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Take the 50/20 Diagnostic here then apply for a spot!Have questions or need help? Text me---What if the real reason you feel like a burned out agent isn't because you need to work harder… but because your business is built wrong?So many agents are chasing more deals, more income, and more growth… but deep down, they feel like a burned out agent just trying to keep up. The business might be producing, but it's also consuming—nights, weekends, and the very time you said you were doing all of this for in the first place. That's not true work life balance, and it's not sustainable.In this episode, we unpack why most agents don't have a motivation problem—they have a realtor structure problem. You'll learn how to shift from building your business on possibility to building it on probability, using simple, repeatable realtor systems that actually get executed. Because the truth is, complexity doesn't scale—simplicity does.We break down how the right systems and leverage can help you stop the cycle of inconsistent lead generation, constant overwhelm, and reactive business. Instead, you'll begin to design a business that produces consistently without requiring you to be “on” all the time. When your realtor systems are simple and sustainable, you can grow your deals without sacrificing your family, your faith, or your peace.This episode will challenge you to evaluate everything you're currently doing and ask one powerful question: “Is this actually probable for me to execute every single week?” Because when you build around what's realistic—not ideal—you finally create real work life balance and long-term success.Most agents are just one simplified system away from doubling their business without doubling their time.---If you're ready to take this further, I want to personally invite you the small, in-person 50/20 Intensive I'm holding in Columbia, SC on April 22. This is a one-day, high-level working session where I'll help you build a business that can handle more deals without consuming your life. You'll walk away with a simplified lead generation plan, a referral-based system that actually produces, a leverage strategy to buy back 5–10 hours a week, and a weekly schedule that supports both growth and family.It's a $999 investment—about a tenth of one commission—and if this helps you close just one more deal, it more than pays for itself. Shoot me a text if you have any questions.Start by taking the 50/20 Diagnostic hereBet on yourself. This could change everything.Connect with Me!Need help in your business? I'm here to help! Shoot me a quick text and we'll figure out the next step in winning at work without losing at life. 

In this episode,  I talk about increasing the probability of success.

Business success is often portrayed as the product of talent, hard work, and persistence. But what if success could be analyzed — and improved — using the logic of probability? Kyle Austin Young, a sought-after strategy consultant, maintains that most goals — whether launching a product, raising funds, or publishing a book — can be analyzed and improved by understanding the odds behind them. Kyle is the author of Success is a Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals by Changing the Odds, a fresh and insightful exploration of goal-setting and goal-achieving. Drawing from his consulting work with entrepreneurs, nonprofits, and business leaders, Kyle reveals a practical framework he calls "probability hacking." The concept is simple but powerful: break ambitious goals into the individual steps required for success, estimate the likelihood of attaining each progression, and then deliberately improve the odds. Listeners will also learn why traditional "think positive" advice can sometimes sabotage success. Instead, Kyle advocates "think negative"— objectively identifying risks and obstacles so they can be reduced or eliminated. The odds are excellent that this episode will change the way you view business opportunity and risk. Monday Morning Radio is hosted by the father-son duo of Dean and Maxwell Rotbart. Photo: Kyle Austin YoungPosted: March 16, 2026 Monday Morning Run Time: 46:26  Episode: 14.37 Coming April 2026: All You Can Eat Business Wisdom: Second Helpings

It's time to get defensive with your portfolios, says Eddie Ghabour, with his firm turning underweight on tech and growing its investments in gold. He adds that a "lose-lose" scenario with the FOMC's stance on rate cuts, paired with heightening tensions in the U.S.-Iran War, will lead to a 10% correction in the S&P 500. Eddie says "I hope I'm wrong on tech," though a deceleration in earnings growth backs his underweight thesis. That said, he sees buying opportunities ahead for these stocks.

Where did probability come from? In this episode, Brad Harris explores how the invention of probability reshaped humanity's relationship with uncertainty—and why artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately runs on the same mathematics of prediction. For most of human history, the future was not something people tried to calculate. It was fate, providence, or the will of the gods. Then in the summer of 1654, two French mathematicians—Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat—began exchanging letters about a gambling problem. From that correspondence emerged one of the most powerful ideas in human history: probability. Once uncertainty could be quantified, the consequences were enormous. Insurance markets became possible. Medical treatments could be tested through clinical trials. Governments began measuring populations statistically. Engineers could calculate risk and safety margins. Modern science itself increasingly relied on statistical reasoning. But the story doesn't end there. Today, the same probabilistic thinking underlies the most powerful technology ever created: artificial intelligence. Large language models like ChatGPT are fundamentally prediction engines—systems trained to calculate what words are most likely to come next. From ancient gambling games to modern AI, this episode explores how the invention of probability transformed the modern world—and why we are now living inside the most powerful prediction machines ever built. If you like Context with Brad Harris, you can help keep the show going and access bonus episodes through Patreon or by subscribing through Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  Find Brad Harris on X @bradcoleharris

If buyers are predicting the future… and confidence determines when they act… what are they actually paying for? In Episode 3 of the Buyer Decision Series, Mark Stiving and Rebecca Kalogeris explore the next piece of the puzzle; and challenge a common assumption about value. Because what buyers pay for may not be what you think. Discover what buyers are really evaluating; and why understanding it can completely change how you talk about value and pricing.   Why You Have to Listen: Understand what buyers are really paying for—and why it's rarely the product itself Learn the Second Law of Value and how it reshapes the way pricing conversations work See how B2B buyers think about results through revenue, cost savings, and risk Recognize the hidden personal outcomes buyers consider—even in business decisions Build the next layer of the Buyer Decision framework introduced in Episodes 1 and 2   Catch Up on the #buyerDecisionSeries: Episode 1: Buying Is a Prediction of the Future https://impactpricing.com/podcast/buying-is-a-prediction-of-the-future/ Episode 2: Buyers Buy Futures, Not Features https://impactpricing.com/podcast/buyers-buy-futures-not-features/   "Value is the result of solving problems." — Mark Stiving   Topics Covered: 00:22 - Recapping the First Two Episodes. Buying is prediction, and confidence determines when someone acts 01:32 - Confidence Threshold in Buying Decisions 02:11 - Introduction to Laws of Value 02:42 - Umbrella Law: Buyers Trade Money for Value 03:14 - Law One: Buyers Make Predictions 04:02 - Law Two: Value is the Result of Solving Problems 05:02 - Confidence Components: Payoff, Probability, Anticipated Regret 06:07 - B2B Results: Incremental Profit + Reduced Risk in B2B 08:22 - Results in B2C: Functional, Social, and Emotional Value. Consumers buy outcomes like better performance, social perception, or emotional satisfaction 10:43 - Why Individual Buyers Still Matter in B2B. Even business decisions include personal outcomes like reputation and career impact 12:50 - What Comes Next: Quantifying Value. How sellers can help buyers understand the payoff they expect   Key Takeaways: "Value is the result of solving problems." — Mark Stiving "Individual buyers inside companies still care about how decisions make them look and feel." — Rebecca Kalogeris   Connect with Rebecca Kalogeris: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rebecca-kalogeris   Connect with Mark Stiving: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stiving/ Email: mark@impactpricing.com  

Send a textIn this episode, we're talking about probabilistic thinking and why language matters more than most people realize. The central idea is simple: most bad decisions don't come from a lack of information, they come from mislabeling information. When we apply labels too early, we collapse probability, reduce our options, and lock ourselves into conclusions that may not be accurate. We'll break down how this happens, why your baseline matters, and how small changes in language can dramatically improve your decision-making under pressure.Support the showWebsite: https://thehumanbehaviorpodcast.buzzsprout.com/shareFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheHumanBehaviorPodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thehumanbehaviorpodcast/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ArcadiaCognerati More about Greg and Brian: https://arcadiacognerati.com/arcadia-cognerati-leadership-team/

In this podcast episode, Dr. Jonathan H. Westover talks with Paul Falcone about recruiting and interviewing in a tight labor market and how to identify 'high-probability' hires. Paul Falcone is a renowned expert on effective hiring, performance management, and leadership development, specializing in helping companies build higher performing leadership teams. He spent the last three decades in human resources executive roles at organizations including Nickelodeon, Paramount Pictures, NBCUniversal, Time Warner, and City of Hope Cancer Center Hospital. Check out all of the podcasts in the HCI Podcast Network!

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Travis Kitchens was a psychedelic research subject for Johns Hopkins University who eventually uncovered a secret plan to revive religion with drugs. Travis is currently a freelance journalist who writes extensively on the history and philosophy of psychedelic research. He lives in Kentucky. SPONSORS https://rag-bone.com - Use code DANNY & get 20% off sitewide. https://takeultra.com - Use code DANNY for 15% off. https://shopify.com/dannyjones - Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial & start selling today. https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off EPISODE LINKS https://vegetabletelevision.substack.com https://www.psymposia.com/magazine/a-channel-for-magic-ralph-hoods-mysticism-scale-and-the-occult-roots-of-the-johns-hopkins-psychedelic-research-program https://www.csmonitor.com/Technology/2019/0418/Why-Wendell-Berry-is-still-not-going-to-buy-a-computer FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Psymposia is sabotaging MDMA research 05:41 - serpent handling cults 09:41 - FDA reason for rejecting MDMA therapy 16:28 - Psychedelics are being weaponized 21:16 - Andrew Callaghan & Nick Shirley 24:30 - The modern journalism landscape 27:50 - The ChatGPT information model 32:17 - Human lifespans are going DOWN 34:59 - Jordan Peterson & John Vervaeke 38:52 - Epstein's interest in the CIA Stargate program 41:22 - Epstein's interview with Steve Bannon 46:29 - The most likely Epstein theory 49:17 - Art forgery & weaponized art 56:37 - Epstein files are confirming the worst conspiracies 01:01:00 - Jeffrey Epstein's brother is worse than him 01:04:01 - Epstein's art exhibit for Roman Polanski 01:05:28 - Noam Chomsky's Epstein connection 01:12:20 - Dark details of Jolly West 01:15:21 - Charles Manson & MKUltra 01:21:42 - Reagan's war on drugs 01:23:03 - Most likely Manson murder theory 01:28:13 - Candace Owen's new Charlie Kirk theory 01:35:13 - Rise of Nick Feuntes 01:39:07 - Trump's plan to sabotage the mid-terms 01:42:33 - Scientology headquarters 01:49:15 - Why Scientologists don't speak out 01:56:53 - Where L. Ron Hubbard escaped to 01:58:03 - How remote viewing works 02:00:49 - Psychedelics & telepathy 02:03:54 - Coming down from DMT 02:07:02 - The need for psychedelic churches 02:09:40 - New plant stronger than DMT 02:10:31 - Changa plant 02:14:00 - Psychedelic drugs of the future 02:14:36 - Ammon Hillman's debate with Luke Gorton 02:18:28 - The apple of knowledge from Adam & Eve 02:21:16 - Why deadly shark attacks are on the rise 02:31:17 - John Lilly's psychedelic NASA research 02:37:55 - Harmony Korine & IDF fundraising 02:44:09 - Florida's donations to Israel 02:49:23 - Museum of Tarot's conspiracy theories 02:55:17 - Bob Lazar 02:57:40 - Danny's theory on UFOs & aliens 02:58:57 - Alex Jones' predictions 03:04:29 - Probability of life beyond earth 03:07:19 - Is there a "creator"? 03:13:11 - Technology vs. evolution 03:15:07 - Graham Hancock & Flint Dibble 03:17:28 - Ancient Egyptian Vases 03:19:13 - Who the ancient Egyptians were 03:20:26 - Tobacco is worse than LSD 03:25:58 - Paganism in Conan the Barbarian 03:27:45 - Oliver Stone's interview with Putin 03:31:57 - The dark tale of Gary Stewart 03:33:40 - The Immortality Con & the psychedelic renaissance 03:41:25 - Why people must be cautious 03:43:05 - The message of psychedelics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

February 16, 2025 - Season 16, Episode 94 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the plethora of roster cuts the Miami Dolphins appear set to make ahead of the start of the 2026 NFL year in March. We do wonder, however, if a few of the Miami reported forthcoming cuts might ultimately be designated for post June 1. Headlining these upcoming cuts the Dolphins will reportedly make are WR Tyreek, Hill, G James Daniels, EDGE Bradley Chubb, and WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Throughout this Monday show, Alex and I address the probability and plausibility that the Pittsburgh Steelers will ultimately select at least one quarterback during the 2026 NFL Draft. We talk about what spending a 2026 draft pick on a quarterback might mean when it comes to veteran backup QB Mason Rudolph and especially if veteran QB Aaron Rodgers is ultimately re-signed. With the Steelers now installing Mike McCarthy as the team's new head coach, Alex and I revisit the team's extensive list of players that are scheduled to become free agents in March. We roll back through that lengthy list of players one-by-one and go over the likelihood of each ultimately being re-signed. As part of our 2026 free agent list rundown during this episode, Alex and I spend extra time discussing the potential futures in Pittsburgh of CB James Pierre, RB Kenneth Gainwell, CB Asante Samuel Jr., and G Isaac Seumalo. There were a few other minor news tidbits concerning the Steelers that surfaced over the weekend, so Alex and I make sure to go over all of those items that are worth mentioning. This 91-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the above recap and we end thus show by answering several emails we received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?My guest today says those odds aren't just graspable — they're hackable.Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game. He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.Resources Related to the PodcastAoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better DecisionsAoM Podcast #840: When to QuitAoM Podcast #490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky?Connect With Kyle Austin YoungKyle's websiteKyle on LinkedInSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.