Podcasts about Probability

In this episode, we discuss public distrust of politicians and the realities behind presidential approval polling before turning to the math of lotteries and why people continue to play despite the odds. We examine Maryland's proposed reparations commission, including questions of eligibility, funding, legal responsibility, and the practical challenges of tying modern policy to historical injustice. We're joined by Phil Magness to explore the economic history of slavery, the claim that capitalism was built on slave labor, and why slavery is fundamentally incompatible with free markets. We cover Adam Smith's opposition to slavery, misconceptions about profit incentives, the global history of forced labor, and the moral and economic failures surrounding emancipation, closing with a broader discussion of capitalism, socialism, and historical accountability. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:44 Presidential Approval Ratings and Polling Reality 02:38 Why Americans Have Always Hated Politicians 03:35 Powerball, Probability, and the Math of Dreaming 06:51 Maryland's Reparations Commission Explained 08:12 Who Pays and Who Gets Reparations? 10:03 Mitigation, Law, and the Reparations Problem 14:24 Introducing Phil Magness 15:02 Was Capitalism Built on Slavery? 17:59 Slavery as an Ancient Institution 19:50 Adam Smith's Case Against Slavery 23:05 Why Slavery Is Anti-Capitalist 24:50 Pro-Slavery Economics and Feudalism 26:16 Founding Fathers, Hypocrisy, and Moral Failure 30:21 Slavery's Global History and Misconceptions 32:06 Incentives, Profit, and Economic Naivety 34:53 Would Slavery Have Ended Without the Civil War? 37:59 Gradual Emancipation and Historical Alternatives 40:47 Socialism, Capitalism, and the Plantation Model 44:01 Final Reflections and Closing Thoughts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Jack Arnold (1916-1992). Film Director (“Creature from the Black Lagoon” et al), 1980 Jack Arnold, who died at the age of 75 in 1992, was the 1950s master of the science fiction film. Among the films he directed were It Came From Outer Space, The Creature from the Black Lagoon, Revenge of the Creature, Tarantula, and The Incredible Shrinking Man. The Probabilities crew – Richard A. Lupoff, Lawrence Davidson and Richard Wolinsky – received a small stipend from a science fiction convention and flew to Los Angeles to interview Jack Arnold in his office at Universal Studios. The interview is undated but was recorded in around 1980, give or take a year. It Came from Outer Space, along with two film noirs, were released  in 1953, Creature from the Black Lagoon in 1954 and Revenge of the Creature in 1955. The first western, The Man from Bitter Ridge along with Tarantula and his work on This Island Earth also came from 1955. The rest of the westerns, along with The Incredible Shrinking Man and the Peter Sellers classic The Mouse That Roared, came between 1956 and 1959. After that, he directed a couple more A pictures, as he called them, but his primary work moved to television, and from then until his retirement in 1984, he was constantly working on projects for the small screen, interspersed with the occasional film. Remastered and re-edited by Richard Wolinsky in July 2021. Complete Interview     Book Interview/Events and Theatre Links Note: Shows may unexpectedly close early or be postponed due to actors' positive COVID tests. Check the venue for closures, ticket refunds, and mask requirements before arrival. Dates are in-theater performances unless otherwise noted. Some venues operate Tuesday – Sunday; others for shorter periods each week. All times Pacific Time. Closing dates are sometimes extended. Book Stores Bay Area Book Festival  See website for highlights from the 110th Annual Bay Area Book Festival, May 31 – June 1, 2025. Book Passage.  Monthly Calendar. Mix of on-line and in-store events. Books Inc.  Mix of on-line and in-store events. The Booksmith.  Monthly Event Calendar. BookShop West Portal. Monthly Event Calendar. Center for Literary Arts, San Jose. See website for Book Club guests in upcoming months. Green Apple Books. Events calendar. Kepler's Books  On-line Refresh the Page program listings. Live Theater Companies Actors Ensemble of Berkeley.  See website for readings and events. Actor's Reading Collective (ARC).  See website for upcoming productions. African American Art & Culture Complex. See website for calendar. American Conservatory Theatre A Streetcar Named Desire by Tennessee Williams, Jan. 21 – Feb. 1, 2026, Toni Rembe (Geary). Paranormal Activity, Feb. 19 – March 15, Toni Rembe. Awesome Theatre Company. See website for information. Berkeley Playhouse. Once, February 20 – March 22.  Berkeley Rep. An Evening with David Sedaris, .Jan. 3 – 11, Roda Theatre. Berkeley Shakespeare Company See website for upcoming productions. Brava Theatre Center: See calendar for events listings. BroadwaySF: The Book of Mormon, Jan. 13 – Feb. 1. See website for complete listings for the Orpheum, Golden Gate and Curran Theaters. Broadway San Jose:  A Beautiful Noise, December 30 – January 4. See website for other events. Center REP: Lost in Yonkers by Neil Simon, March 29 – April 19. Central Stage. See website for upcoming productions, 5221 Central Avenue, Richmond Central Works After Happy by Patricia Milton, Feb. 28 – March 29. Cinnabar Theatre. My Fair Lady, January 23 – February 8, 2026. Club Fugazi. Dear San Francisco ongoing. Check website for Music Mondays listings. Contra Costa Civic Theatre A Chorus Line, June 6 – 21 See website for other events and concerts. Golden Thread  See website for upcoming productions. Hillbarn Theatre: What the Constitution Means to Me by Heidi Schreck, January 22 – February 8. Lorraine Hansberry Theatre. See website for upcoming productions. Los Altos Stage Company. Yoga Play by Dipika Guha. January 22 – February 15.. Lower Bottom Playaz  See website for upcoming productions. Magic Theatre. Macbeth, a new version by Migdalia Cruz. March 18 – April 5. Marin Shakespeare Company: Let The Wind Sweep Through: A Conference of Birds, Feb. 6-15. See website for schedule. Marin Theatre: The Cherry Orchard by Anton Chekhov Jan . 29 – Feb. 22, 2026. Mission Cultural Center for Latino Arts Upcoming Events Page. New Conservatory Theatre Center (NCTC)  Ruthless,  Dec. 5 – January 11, 2026. New Performance Traditions.  See website for upcoming schedule Oakland Theater Project. See website for upcoming 2026 season. Odd Salon: Upcoming events in San Francisco & New York, and streaming. Palace of Fine Arts Theater.  See website for event listings. Pear Theater. My Fair Lady, Feb 20 – March 8. See website for staged readings and other events. Playful People Productions. Next production: The Play That Goes Wrong. Presidio Theatre. See website for complete schedule of events and performances. The Children's Theatre Association of San Francisco (CTA) presents Once Upon a Mattress, January 24 – February 28, Ray of Light: Mean Girls. May 2026. Ross Valley Players: See website for New Works Sunday night readings and other events. San Francisco Playhouse. Into the Woods. November 30 – January 17, 2026. SFBATCO.  See website for upcoming streaming and in- theater shows. San Jose Stage Company: See website for events and upcoming season Shotgun Players.  Sunday in the Park with George, November 15 – January 31. South Bay Musical Theatre:  Little Women, The Broadway Musical, January 24 – February 14, 2026. SPARC: See website for upcoming events. Stagebridge: See website for events and productions. Storytime every 4th Saturday. The Breath Project. Streaming archive. The Marsh: Calendar listings for Berkeley, San Francisco and Marshstream. Theatre Lunatico  See website for upcoming productions.. Theatre Rhino  Left Field, written and directed by John Fisher, February 19 – March 15. Streaming: Essential Services Project, conceived and performed by John Fisher, all weekly performances now available on demand. TheatreWorks Silicon Valley Hershey Felder: The Piano and Me, January 17 – February 8, Mountain View Center for the Performing Arts. Primary Trust by Eboni Booth, March 4 – 29, Lucie Stern Theatre, Palo Alto. Word for Word.  See website for upcoming productions. Misc. Listings: BAMPFA: On View calendar for Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive. Berkeley Symphony: See website for listings. Chamber Music San Francisco: Calendar, 2025 Season. Dance Mission Theatre. On stage events calendar. Fort Mason Center. Events calendar. Oregon Shakespeare Festival: Calendar listings and upcoming shows. San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus. See schedule for upcoming SFGMC performances. San Francisco Opera. Calendar listings. San Francisco Symphony. Calendar listings. Filmed Live Musicals: Searchable database of all filmed live musicals, podcast, blog. If you'd like to add your bookstore or theater venue to this list, please write Richard@kpfa.org   . The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – January 1, 2026: The Probabilities Archive. Jack Arnold (1916-1992), Science Fiction Film Director appeared first on KPFA.

Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?My guest today says those odds aren't just graspable — they're hackable.Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game. He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.Resources Related to the PodcastAoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better DecisionsAoM Podcast #840: When to QuitAoM Podcast #490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky?Connect With Kyle Austin YoungKyle's websiteKyle on LinkedInSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode of Eating Habits for Life, we're diving into Probability Mindset vs. Possibility Mindset and how this single shift can completely change your relationship with food, your body, and your results.If you've ever thought:“I've tried before and it didn't work…”“I'll probably just fail again…”“I want change, but I don't trust myself anymore…”This episode will help you understand why your brain keeps predicting the same outcomes, and how to stop letting your past define what's possible for you.You'll learn:What probability mindset is and how it quietly keeps you stuck with food and weightWhy “realistic” goals often protect you from disappointment, but limit real changeHow a possibility mindset opens the door to sustainable weight loss and peace with foodThe powerful questions that shift you from fear of failure to real momentumHow changing who you become matters more than forcing new actions with willpowerThis conversation goes beyond eating habits and weight loss. It's about expanding what you allow yourself to want and showing your brain that this time truly can be different.✨ Plus, I share an important update about the future direction of this podcast and who it's specifically being created for moving forward.If you're ready to stop predicting failure and start exploring what's possible, this episode is for you.___________

Quaranteam - Dave In Dallas: Part 9 A talk with a detective leads to a decision. Based on a post by RonanJWilkerson, in 12 parts. Listen to the Podcast at Explicit Novels. Jan visibly relaxed as she followed Dave out. Olivia was checking in with Shawna and Mel. Dave waited until it looked like Liv had reached a stopping point in her conversation, then signaled for her to come back up. "Dave, how long until the cops get here?" Shawna asked. "Patrol isn't coming. Said since we aren't in immediate danger, they'll focus on 'higher priority calls and get to us when they can'. Which means they aren't coming. A detective will come out to investigate, but that will take time." "How much?" "Dunno. I have a plan though. I'll talk it over with the others and hash out the details. I'll come back out and fill you two in shortly." "Okay." Mel replied. "I'll call Mitchell. See if he can cover for me. He already has morning shift. Between him and April, they can manage for a day." "You sure?" "He's ready to work without a net for one day at least. Probably longer, but I don't want to fry his nerves unnecessarily." "You're a good boss, babe." Dave gave her a quick kiss, then charged back up the stairs to Esme's room where Lupie, Nessa and Olivia waited, with Esme and Roscoe of course. Currently, Esme had her face buried in the big dog's neck, giggling. As Dave took and held each ladies' hand briefly, he heard Jan come in with Becca and Reena in trail. "Okay, here's what we're going to do. We'll take pictures to document the damage and the bodies. Then we'll make repairs. We've got four people with weapons skills. Until the breaches are sealed, at least two of us are armed, on sentry duty downstairs. Once we've got the holes patched, at night at least, we'll go to one person on guard." He paused a minute so everyone could absorb what he'd said. "Does anyone have a good digital camera? We should use something other than cellphones if we can." "Depends on the camera and the user," Mel said. "Unless someone's had classes in photography, they're probably better off using a high-end phone camera." "Does anyone have a high-end phone camera?" Dave asked. "I know mine is decent, but not great." "Mine's pretty good, Liv's too." The other just shrugged. "I have a couple of good digital cameras at my office." Nessa replied. "Listings without photos don't do so good. The cameras are the best available last year, so they should show all the needed detail. I took classes at the El Centro to learn how to make the most of them. Well, the classes were three years ago when we different cameras. We got new, better ones last year." Dave nodded, then thought for a moment. "Okay, I'll escort Nessa to her office for the camera. We'll document everything. Then we'll assess the damage and figure out what we need for repairs. Liv, you and Mel will go to the hardware store for the supplies. Watch your; " his eyes flitted to Esme, "butts. If anything looks sketchy, get back here, supplies or no." Olivia nodded. "Just keep the same in mind yourself." Lupie gazed at him like she wanted to burn Liv's words into Dave's mind. She was not alone. "Vee, we should get going as soon as you're dressed. I don't think you want to go out in the cold drizzle in silk peejays." Vanessa smirked, rising to go change. "I'll be in shortly to grab a coat." As Nessa walked out, Dave sat down beside Lupie. Neither said a word, he just folded his arms around her as she leaned into him. Her shoulder pressed against his chest. Her head settled into the crook of his neck. Dave stroked her other arm, from the top of her shoulder, all the way down to her elbow, slowly, gently, hoping to give her the reassurance that no words would convey. He looked up to see the imploring look in Jan's eyes. With a flick of his own eyes, he signaled for her to sit on his other side, which she promptly did, leaning against him. Lupie reached out to softly grasp Jan's hand. The two sat on either side of Dave, just feeling his presence. While the other two snuggled against him, Dave made eye contact, individually, with Olivia, Becca, and Reena. Liv, while still working through some understandable nerves, seemed otherwise okay. Rebecca looked worried but trusting. Kareena looked like she was on the verge of losing it. Dave waved her over. Reena rose from where she was sitting on the opposite side of the room and streaked over to sit in Dave's lap. Lupie and Jan both made space for the younger girl to sit. The hands that they clasped together, rejoined, encircling Reena. Meanwhile, Reena buried her face in the crook of Dave's neck. Dave's eyes fell on Becca and Liv, the only two of his partners in the room not already huddled with him. Becca looked worried, but trying not to intrude. Not surprising for her, but not an accurate assessment of how Dave or the others would feel about her joining in. Quite the opposite of course. Beginning to understand Becca's feelings of inadequacy, was, however, shining an uncomfortable light on Dave's own lingering personal demons. Then there was Livy. The one that stood by him, protecting the others as the barbarians stormed their gates. He could see the conflicting emotions bounding across her face. She needed this comfort as much as he did. Today was the first time either of them had fired a shot at another human being. Dave waved them both over. "Let's make some space for Liv to sit here. She's got to be pretty spent too." Lupie looked at him plaintively. Like she knew the rightness of what he suggested, but some selfish part of her, that was losing, did not want to move. She did. Then she wrapped her arms around Olivia. "If it weren't for you, he would have been all alone down there, Liv. Thank you." Lupie hugged the younger woman closely. Olivia leaned back into her, while staring at Dave. That's when she started shaking. Dave tried leaning into Liv, But he still had Reena on his lap, and Jan on his other side. Becca, not yet in the cuddle pile, knelt in front of Liv, stroking her thighs soothingly, not erotically. "If you start singing soft kitty, Becca, I swear I'll drop you from the roof." Though Olivia's voice was unsteady, her essential snark came shining through, evoking the laughter she was seeking. None laughed harder than Becca, who threw her head back, snorting hard, with a wide grin that suggested Liv might have been prescient. "Okay, okay ladies," Dave said as the laughter subsided, "I need to go tell Shawna and Mel what's going on, get a coat, and escort Vanessa to get that camera." He patted Reena's leg. She immediately rose halfway up and slipped over to sit beside Liv, sandwiching the brunette between herself and Lupie. Dave addressed the room. "On security issues, Liv's in charge." He fixed his eyes on Olivia. "You know the drill; two on duty, one off, staggered relief. No one downstairs except guards for now. Well, people will start getting hungry once the nerves wear off, so let Lupie and a helper in the kitchen to make something." "And two more helpers at the end to carry everything else up." "Yeah." "And have the third in the kitchen on guard during cooking time." "Yup. and the guard is not doing anything but guarding. Just do your best to keep the guards rested and alert. Hopefully it won't take more than an hour or two to get the camera, but we'll maintain the watch while we document and repair." Liv nodded, as did Lupie and Jan. Nessa opened the door just then, smartly dressed for the weather in jeans and a stylish but sturdy jacket, and Dave's coat in hand. "Thanks, hun." Dave said as he approached her. "Let's go tell Shawna and Mel what's going on, and then head out. We'll take Liv's S U V." The brunette gave a thumbs up from the midst of the loose cuddle the family sat in. Esme and Roscoe had joined them. "Oh, and make sure Lupie and anyone else that cross the living room knows to steer clear of the broken glass, both to preserve evidence until we document it, and spare their feet." Passing Shawna, Dave motioned her to follow him part way down the stairs, then signaled Mel to come up and meet them. The looks on their faces as Dave spoke morphed from incredulous at the dispatcher's comments, to mild worry and trust when Dave explained his plans. Shawna stood up as Dave did, hugging him tightly. In his ear she said, "You be careful. I just got you, baby. I need you, and not just because of the serum." She punctuated her statement with a kiss on the lips that clearly wanted to linger, but self-control did not permit. "Escorting Nessa, armed, is just a precaution. I really don't expect any more trouble. We just need to be smart about this; be ready if something does happen." The first part was to allay their fears, the second to bolster their vigilance. Two steps down, Mel gave Dave a hug as well. "Just come back. You hear me? Come back to us. I don't want to change families anymore." Dave picked up on the allusion to the constant moves while in foster care. He hugged her tightly. "I promise, Red." Then he adopted a bad Austrian accent. "I'll be back." Mel giggled and smacked his shoulder with a wry smile. She followed Dave and Nessa down the stairs until she reached her station. The other two continued through the house and out through the garage. Liv's vehicle was in the driveway and it would have been much shorter to just go through the front door, but Dave was trying not to pass through any portion of the crime scene until after they'd documented it. Nessa drove. For one thing, it was her office, and Dave didn't know the way. For another, in the passenger seat, Dave could scan all around the vehicle, keeping a constant watch. He meant what he said earlier, the risk was likely zero now. Still, caution would be far better than getting caught unawares. Again. The streets were empty of course. While that should have lowered Dave's anxiety levels, the current risk factor was not the only thing that could gnaw at him. Dave had nearly a hundred hours of practice at shoot / no-shoot ranges, hundreds of hours of raw target practice, and had successful hunts every year he'd gotten a license. And no, despite all the bullshit coming out of those idiots at PETA, shooting a deer was not the same as shooting a person. Not even close. What they only knew as a pseudo-intellectual exercise Dave now had logged as real life experience. He didn't regret it. They were attacking his home. They broke in, in the middle of the night, carrying arms. Their intent was unknown, but there were no innocent reasons fitting those facts. But they were dead, at Dave's hands. And Livy's. He needed to find a way to console her, help her through this mental minefield even as he tried to navigate it himself. The look on her face as he left hovered in his mind. What had he led her through? Maybe he should have taken the low position on the stairs, and had Liv wait at the top of the stairs as backup? Then maybe she wouldn't have to have fired a shot? Maybe he could have fired quickly enough to hold off the attackers on his own. Then Liv wouldn't have to carry the burden she now had. "Babe?" Vanessa called out. Seeing no change in Dave's face, she tried again. "David? Honey, can you hear me?" "Huh? What?" "You're spiralling. I'm no expert, but that look. I've seen it before. A couple of our younger realtors are vets." "Not the same. This was a single incident that only lasted a few minutes. Those guys lived in hell for months." "Only one has chosen to open up to me, but it seems it's only a few minutes that the mind can't let go of." Dave kept his face stony and doubled down on his scanning. What could he have missed while his brain was wasting time with obsessions? "David, please don't run away on me, on us. We need you. You've been a good man for us every step of the way." Her voice got shaky as she continued. "We needed you this morning, and you stepped up. I've never been one to consign manliness exclusively to feats of strength or military prowess, but those are included. What you did this morning was another way to show your love. You stood between us and harm. You took the risk, and I am grateful for that. I know the others are too." Dave didn't reply, but did take a deep breath. The rest of the ride passed in silence. It took forty-five minutes to reach the realty office. Since most were working remotely; or dead; the place was empty. Dave followed Nessa in as she went straight to the cabinet and extracted a camera and a fresh memory card. Then they headed right back out. As she was locking the outer door, her stomach rumbled. Dave chuckled. "Maybe we should swing through a drive-thru for some breakfast. Any preferences?" "I'd really like a coffee. I think I saw an open Starbucks three blocks back. I don't know if they're working in bubbles; like a fixed group for each shift; or maybe they got dosed already, but they're lit up. A big coffee and a pastry and I'd be fine." The lobby doors had large "Closed, Use Drive-Thru Please" signs. Nessa pulled in and placed her order, then looked over at Dave. "Almond croissant, bacon gouda sandwich, and; a trenta pink drink. Easy ice." The look on Nessa face was priceless. She managed not to laugh, or say anything, just turned to the speaker to relay the request. While they were waiting their turn in line, she reached her hand under Dave's chin. She pulled him toward her, even as she leaned in, giving him a long, slow, loving kiss. "The man that can hold off armed assailants in the middle of the night, with no warning, doesn't need to be embarrassed about what he drinks with his breakfast, baby. You've certified your manliness in so many ways, even before this morning." Tears rimmed the bottom of her eyes. Dave was just brushing away her tears, trying to think of something to say when the car behind them honked. The car ahead was now two car lengths away. Both settled back into their seats. "Thank you," Dave said huskily as she edged forward. They passed the remainder of the return trip in silence, though a few meaningful glances were exchanged. Shawna and Mel left their stations and met them in the middle of the living room as soon as the two heard Dave and Nessa coming in through the garage. Dave had also texted as they turned on to the right block. "Upstairs, now mister." Shawna's voice was stern, uncompromising. "What?" "I didn't think about it before you left, but these guys might be carriers of Duo. We're vaxxed directly, but you're only safe through us. The briefing we got was clear; if the man we're bonded to is exposed, or even potentially exposed, renew his immunity with sex. Lots of it. Nessa and I will start documenting. Liv and Mel will stand guard." Footsteps on the stairs announced Olivia's descent. "Go on. Becca and Reena are in the spare bedroom waiting. Others will rotate in. You don't have to finish in us for your immunity. Once we gush, with or without you, switch to the next girl." "But y'all won't get your dose that way." "That's not the concern right now. Your immunity is. Go on." Dave recognized that tone, plus the looks in every eye present. He was sure the looks of those not present would match. Sure enough, when Dave opened the door to the bedroom, he saw his two youngest partners already waiting. Becca, her blonde hair cascading past her shoulders, small, pert tits standing out proudly as she kneeled on the bed wearing nothing but a smile. Reena was identically attired, her warm brown skin and large tits the most notable contrast with her friend. Dave began stripping off his gear and clothing, double checking that his pistol and smg were on safe, even though they had been for a few hours now. He set his weapons away from the bed, but further from the door than the bed. Coos and sexy comments from the girls had him half-chubbed by the time he pulled off his boxers. "Oh, yeah baby. That's what I'm looking for." Reena purred. She pulled Dave's face down to hers and locked his lips in a passionate kiss. Dave immediately began stroking her sides, then moved to caress her lush tits. As his hands contacted her big soft mammaries, Reena hummed. Dave pushed her back onto the bed. Whether this or his fingers grasping her nipples caused her to gasp is anyone's guess. Dave settled himself between her thighs. He felt a hand grasp his cock and notch it in Reena's entrance. Then a small hand delivered a soft slap on his ass. He felt Reena's hand reach around his back, but never saw the thumbs up she gave to Becca. That hand immediately switched from signaling to grasping as Dave's cock surged into her wet and waiting pussy. "Oh, fuck yes. Fuck me, David. Fuck me with that magic fucking cock." She started nibbling on his earlobe as he drove in and out of her slippery passage. It was one of his 'drive me wild' spots. His thrusting rapidly accelerated in speed and power. He raised up, taking his ear out of her reach, but her lascivious smile and her bouncing tits provided incredible visual stimuli. Reena managed a few encouraging erotic words, but quickly devolved into grunts and moans as his animalistic attack on her eager vagina brought both of them to the edge of ecstasy. She got there first. Barely. Her rippling inner muscles touched off his eruption, in turning kicking her into a second orgasm just as the first was reaching its maximum. The power of the doubled orgasm drove the air from her lungs and all thought from her mind. She clutched Dave fiercely with her arms and legs, claiming him as an anchor as pleasure wracked her body. She finally relaxed, flopping back to the bed, panting. "That; was; Awesome!" Dave sat up, his ass on his heels. Then Becca grabbed his shoulders, forcing him to half-turn so she could kiss him. He could feel a turmoil of emotions in that kiss. He brought his hands up to grasp her shoulders while his tongue tangled with hers. Dave barely felt the washcloth Becca slipped under his cock as he slid out of Reena's ravaged little hole. Reena grabbed it to capture any leakage. Meanwhile, Becca pushed Dave flat on his back and straddled him. She leaned down to kiss him again. Then Dave felt an extra hand on his mostly hard shaft. It was elevating him to Becca's hot, moist, little pussy. Reena was returning the favor. Becca sat back slowly at first, until Dave was seated in her entrance. The stimulus of the kiss, the hand on his cock, and Becca's small tits and tiny nipples rubbing his chest had him nearly full hard again. The young blonde's eyes fluttered slightly as she eased her way onto Dave's rod. Probably leftover semen on me setting off a serum reaction , Dave thought. Becca grasped his shoulders with her hands as the ripples passed through her. The effects of the brief exposure ran their course quickly. She sat up, bracing herself on his shoulders as she slowly began to ride him. Her eyes locked on his. Her hips bounced and rotated and snaked, all while Dave's cock stayed buried within her. Dave reached up, grazing her torso with his palms until he cupped her petite and alluring tits. He began massaging the lovely mounds with his palms. His fingers rubbed, rolled, and lightly pinched her nipples. Dave felt the bed shift, and then heard the door click shut. Reena must have slipped out of the room. He returned his attention to Becca, fixing his eyes on hers. So much life was there, waiting, yearning, to become. Her face bore worry; understandably; but something more. It was the something that gave him peace with their relationship, despite his natural doubts about their age difference or himself. He curled up to kiss her lips, which she returned before he lay back down. Her sleek body hammered up and down on his cock, the motions getting increasingly rapid. Her breathing grew ragged and punctuated by moans. She slammed herself down one last time, fully seating Dave inside her as pleasure shot through her body. Dave lowered the exhausted girl to his chest and held her while she caught her breath. Her fluids saturated his cock and leaked slowly out around their joining. A discrete knock preceded the door opening quietly, and closing almost as quickly. Almost imperceptible footsteps approached the bed. The silence of a librarian. "Becca, time to switch." Said Jan in her usual soft voice. "Try to understand, he's a magic man." Her voice was slightly muffled as her head was slightly mushed against Dave's chest still. Both adults chuckled. Then Dave said, "Been watching seventies music on MTV?" Becca nodded. "Mostly concerts since they didn't make many videos back then. People wore weird shit back then." "Hey, I was a kid in the seventies. Those people were my parents, aunts, and uncles." "No more stalling." Jan said in her firm voice. Becca slid up, so that Dave slipped out of her, then clambered off the bed. She immediately grabbed a washcloth, from a stack the ladies must have staged there. House Belsus had no shortage of women that could plan ahead, in detail. As Becca cleaned herself, Jan cleaned up Dave. Then she climbed over Dave to lie between him and the wall. Dave looked at the light tan blouse and mid-thigh, navy blue cloth skirt she wore. "Overdressed aren't we?" Jan's eyes twinkled as she took Dave's hand and placed it high on her thigh, under her skirt. Taking the hint, he slid his hand up her leg, finding her happy place bare and wet. The next hour became a blur as Dave's lovers each took turns 'topping off' his immunity. Well, except Niki. She'd only arrived last night, and was still in her imprinting sleep. When Dave and Shawna; who had been the last in line; had finished cuddling afterwards, they dressed, grinning at each other like a couple of teens that had the house to themselves. A quick kiss and they left the room. As they stepped out, Shawna leaned back in and gave a sniff. "We're gonna need to light a candle in there. Several candles. And lay down some carpet deodorizer." "That's a later problem. Right now I want to check in on Niki, then see how things are going downstairs." As they walked, Shawna spoke. "Well, Nessa and I photographed everything in excruciating detail. Multiple frames, multiple angles. Both breaches, and each corpse, along with the blood trails. She even took close up photos of each man's fingertips and captured decent images of the fingerprints." "Good enough for id purposes?" Dave asked as he opened the door to the master bedroom. "Dunno. Hopefully. We'll see what the police say." "They'll have the bodies to print the old fashion way." "Yeah, couldn't hurt though. Besides, we copied all the images on a second memory card. We're keeping that and handing over the original. Mel swears there's no difference in file integrity." Dave stood by the side of the bed, reaching out to place the back of his hand against the cheek of Niki as she slumbered. She was warm, but not feverish. He pulled back the blankets to examine her legs, remembering their discussion the night before about her injury. There were lots of flaked off skin in the bed surrounding Niki's legs, and some kind of residue along her legs as well. "Best to wait until she wakes to clean her up David. We don't want to disturb her during imprinting sleep." "But we can't wake her during it, no matter what we do." "Still, whatever's going on could be a delicate process. Let's err on the side of caution hun. Let her heal, then we'll help her cleanup later." Dave nodded his agreement and neatly pulled the covers back over Niki's sleeping form. As he adjusted the bedding, Shawna spoke. "Let's go see if Lupie's managed to get the glass out of the carpet to her satisfaction." A wry grin grew on Dave's face. "Is anything ever clean to Lupie's satisfaction?" he asked as they hit the top of the stairs. "When it comes to glass shards in carpet, I'm a fan of Lupie's exactitude." "Fair point. Hey, has Roscoe gotten out yet?" "Oh yeah. We took him out through the garage after you and Nessa left. Esme and Liv walked him around in Lupie's yard 'til he settled down and did his business. Then they played for awhile. Mostly Esme played with him while Liv kept watch." "Bet he loved that." "Yeah, those two are like peas in a pod now." Shawna said as they reached the floor of the living room. Dave walked over to Lupie, who leaned back onto her heels from her work looking for glass shards. The overhead lights were off. She had a flashlight in one hand, using the glint from the shards to locate them. She tilted her head up and Dave gave her an appreciative kiss. "I think he likes her more than me at this point," Liv groused from her position against one wall of the living room. "Aw, he's not replacing you. He just has a new buddy to have fun with." "Yeah, yeah. I'm still getting replaced by a younger model." Shawna rolled her eyes and snickered. "Oh, yeah, you're such an old hag, Liv." Olivia's only answer was a smirking scowl. Dave motioned Liv over to a quiet corner of the room. "How are you holding up?" "I'm okay," she said in an uncharacteristically small voice. "The others kinda dogpiled me for awhile. It's just; it's not like I thought it would be." Both were silent for a minute. "Dad did stuff like that for years." Her voice started to crack. "How? I mean shit, now I get why he was so strict on some things, or why he would get distant. How the fuck wasn't he a bigger asshole?" As she started to shake with sobs, Dave wrapped his arms around her, tears streaming down his own face. Lupie noticed and came over, with other members of the house following to join a group hug. It wasn't even noon yet, and already a very long day. Chapter 11; A Nudge. October 28, 2020 9:15am After Livy's entirely understandable emotional outburst, Dave suggested she remain at the house while he escorted Mel to the hardware store. Liv stomped that idea down, hard. "I will not leave my duties for someone else to perform. I thank all of you for your support. I'm okay. My dad didn't raise me to leave people hanging." The facial expressions several of them shared indicated a mutual desire to object to that particular characterization, and a mutual recognition of the futility of any words they could say in that cause. Liv was calm and collected when she and Mel left, both of them armed and masked up. Each wore full-length pants, long sleeves and gloves as well, to maintain the appearance of quarantine protocols. The NDA's they'd signed were still in effect, so they couldn't give anyone a reason to wonder why they were not concerned about the virus. All the gear they wore managed to dwarf Melanie's medium frame and curves, but nothing could hide Liv's large bust. That and the contrast of Liv's milk chocolate brown hair with Mel's auburn locks allowed the others to distinguish the two as they walked out. A few texts from Mel to Lupie kept the family reassured they were both fine while they were out. Liv drove, using the argument that she'd had combat driving training with her dad. He'd slipped her in when one of his security teams were going through annual training. Still, getting the lumber and fasteners to make temporary fixes for the broken window and sliding door took the better part of an hour in-store. The drive itself was short. While Liv and Mel were gone, Dave gathered a couple of sawhorses and tools from the garage and set up on the back deck. Even though they'd photographed everything, Dave didn't want to disturb the two bodies lying on the deck. Arranging the tables had a new dimension to consider. A creepy one that should have bothered him more than it did. He pulled out a plastic table from a hall closet to serve as a tool stand and laid out the cordless drill and everything else. The saw he placed on the table and immediately connected the extension cord to it, leaving the other end disconnected from, but near, the outside outlet. Finished, Dave settled into a patio chair. The chair was made of stretched grey fabric on a black metal frame, one of four on his low back deck. Given the size of his household, he needed to pick up some more. Or better yet get some nice wooden deck chairs. With the combined incomes in the house, they could afford to splurge a little. Except, they're supposed to move. How soon he didn't know, but why buy new furniture when they'd just have to move it; and might not have a deck or patio to put it on? Dave's gaze wandered across his yard. The greenhouse drew his attention. With the lower temperatures, the potted bay tree had been moved in there. Would they get to move the plants? Restarting his entire food base would suck. His practice platform would have to be carefully dismantled, assuming they had enough warning time. The platform was well worn and smooth. He'd even practice barefoot sometimes to get a feel for it. No splinters. That smooth. Starting over again; on so many things. Seems like that was the new refrain in life; starting over. Dave shook himself out of that downward spiral. Nothing good lay down that line of thinking. His eyes landed on the body on his deck, and the red stain beneath it. Once the body was removed and the detritus cleared and scrubbed, he'd need to sand it and re-stain it. Well, maybe not. Depends on how long until they moved. Dave realized he needed to talk with Vanessa about the timeline on this thing. But what the hell did it mean? Why would they cut the nuts off their own dead? What was going on? None of this made sense. Nothing had made sense for months. Why not pile on one more inanity? "David?" Jan's soft voice, loaded with concern, snapped him out of his spiraling thoughts. He turned his head to face her. Her slender frame easily fit within the break in the glass door. "David, it's freezing and wet out here. Wouldn't you rather be inside?" She looked about the deck and all of his preparations. She crossed from the door to his chair and slowly knelt beside his knee. Her soft brown eyes pleaded even more than the words from her mouth. "It's not good for you to be out here like this, David. Please, come inside." Dave stood, reaching her position at the door in three quick steps. Kissing her softly on the lips, he pulled back with a cheeky grin. "Yes, dear." Her bemused smile was just what he needed. He let her guide him to a spot on the couch. It was only slightly warmer, but a lot drier. Plus, Jan snuggled in close. After a few minutes, she got up to pull a blanket off the back of the other couch. She rejoined Dave, wrapping the blanket around the two of them. They said very little. Jan's calm, quiet presence prevented any further worrisome mental tangents. When Liv got back with the supplies, his first order of business was to check that they'd had no problems and hadn't been followed. In that, they were clear. With weapons slung, the three of them unloaded the lumber and such from the truck and into the backyard via the side fence gate. They were careful to avoid the corpses, giving them a wide berth. Where the fuck were the cops? "Okay, Liv, can you make one last verification on the window measurements while I get the plywood on the sawhorse?" "Sure. You wanna screw it straight to the wood frame, right?" Liv asked. "Yup." Dave replied. "Hmm, you could just screw it straight to my frame, Dave." Mel purred and waggled her eyebrows. Liv was out of earshot by the time she'd spoken. Dave sagged for a moment. Mel was one of the several he hadn't ejaculated in earlier, so she would still need dosing in the next four days. Mel immediately felt bad, as expressed on her face. "Sorry, Dave, I'm just messing with you." "Yeah, I get that. And I like the quick jab jokes most of the time. I'd rather a sharp mind that occasionally nicks my fingertip than a dull one that needs every non-literal comment described and outlined for her." Melanie snickered appreciatively. "Still, I'm responsible for all of you, and your needs. I take that seriously; as much fun as any one of you are to be with, it's also a job that I gotta get right or someone gets hurt." It took Mel about half a second to close the distance and press her body against Dave. Her arms latched around him. "Hey, you do a great job taking care of us, each of us. This morning was one of the more obvious proofs. You're really good at the less obvious stuff too." Dave gave her ass a light pinch that made Mel yelp. "Thanks, kitten. I really am getting in a better head space with your help and others. Sometimes my instincts are from the old days, though." Liv stepped back out onto the deck just then. Mel's wicked grin reappeared. "Well, in the old days, you didn't have me to fuck; or your big tiddy daughter slut." Liv backhanded Mel. "I'm not his daughter, dammit! Don't say shit like that. I won't get laid for a week if that's in his head!" "Damn, that was my tit! That fucking hurt!" Olivia looked completely unapologetic. Mel's face switched back to lascivious. "That's okay, I know what could get him revved and ready to fuck." She sauntered over to Liv and took her friend's face in her hands, softly. Then she kissed her, long slow, and deep. Liv's response was surprise at the sudden switch, but not unaccustomed to the familiarity. Melanie broke the kiss, then turned to look at Dave with hooded eyes, her cheek pressed against Olivia's. "What do you think David? You up for nailing a couple of kinky bi-sexual college babes?" Dave drew in a breath and was about to reply when she continued. "Even if one of them is your big tiddy mfm--" Liv's hand sealed over Mel's mouth to block a repeat of the undesired phrase. "With dead bodies lying right here in view? Not so much." Dave hoisted a sheet of plywood and settled it on the sawhorses. Liv released Mel, who spoke only with her wicked grin and gleaming eyes before heading back inside. Liv called off the measurements, which matched what she and Dave measured earlier. A few minutes with the measuring tape and pencil and they had two panels marked off, one each from two different corners of the sheet. Liv held the plywood while Dave cut one panel, then they switched roles for the second panel. After securing the saw, Dave grabbed the drill and screws while Liv snagged the cut sections. They passed back through the broken glass door and proceeded to the entryway to patch the broken window. Nice thing about drywall screws; they're very good for more than just drywall. The frame of the window was wide, and solid wood. Dave held the one section in place on the inside as Liv used the cordless drill to run two pilot holes each on both sides of the frame. She quickly changed to a driver bit and put drywall screws into the holes. The pilots were large enough for the shaft of the screw, but not the threads, that way the screws had a good, firm, bite in the wood without cracking it. Once Liv had four good screws in the plywood panel, Dave stepped back, making room for her to run a few more pilot holes and screws; two more on each side and three each across the top and bottom. Liv was a little annoyed having to use the step ladder for the top screw on each side as well as the three across the top. "Don't worry about it. Hell, I'm gonna use it when I do the outside. Yeah, if I really had to, I can reach and do it. But, with less strain, I can be sure to get the screws level." Liv looked slightly mollified at Dave's admission. To further assuage her injured ego he delivered a gentle, lips only, kiss after she descended. She rolled her eyes and smiled before leaving to find the hand vacuum to get the sawdust. Dave started shuffling the equipment through the never-breached security door around to the outside of the window. He was just running the extension cord back to the outlet near the door when Liv came out. This time, she held the panel in place while he drove pilot holes, quick changed to a driver bit and put screws in place. Liv backed off so he had room to run the rest of the pilot holes. Dave was just driving the last screw holding the panel in place when he heard an engine coming down the street. Two engines. "Get inside, use the door as cover," he ordered. Dropping the drill in the grass under the windowsill, he hoofed it around the corner of the house. The brick would give him some small measure of protection if it was needed. He pulled the SMG around on its sling, from against his back to the ready position. Almost the moment he was in position with weap. As the S U V came to a stop, Dave registered the markings and got a mental jarring. Black background, two blue stripes, with white letters spelling out 'Police' and 'Garland'. Garland was three towns away, on the other fucking side of the lake! The officer stepped out of her vehicle, standing between the body and her driver's door. Typical for an on-duty officer, her hair was hidden up under her hat. More importantly, her right hand was low, hidden by the vehicle's body, likely on her pistol. In fact, given what Carter had taught him about procedures, she'd likely already removed the safety strap, her thumb hooked around the grip. She was exposed enough that Dave could see her badge. She was too far away to identify the authenticity of said emblem, but everything was falling into place as legit. "Sir, please place your weapon on the ground. My name is Officer Korman of the Garland Police Department. We are here in response to multiple 911 calls from this address." Dave held both hands, empty, out to his sides. "Yes officer, we called several times in the early morning while we were under attack, and after. I'm going to disarm myself, and hand my weapons inside to my family." The officer's eyes flicked to the door. Clearly, she'd been distracted enough by Dave that she hadn't noticed Olivia. Or Olivia's gun. Even at a distance, she flinched visibly, realizing she'd committed a fatal error. "We have no beef with law enforcement, officer. We've been a bit on guard since the incident. My partner will secure my weapons inside and close the door." Dave used his left hand to reach slowly across his body at shoulder height. He hooked his thumb under the strap and slid it off his shoulder and across his arm. Leaving it to twist, dangling from his thumb, he held his arm straight out, full length, as he slowly walked to the door and handed the weapon off to Liv. Keeping his right hand still up and visible, he then unstrapped his thigh holster and handed that inside as well. Liv had a wary look as Dave pulled the front door closed between them. Dave turned back to the officer. "Ma'am, as you can see, I am now unarmed, everyone else is inside. We were just repairing the damage from the attack, and staying vigilant." "You altered the crime scene?" The voice should have been annoyed, but was too monotone to convey any meaning beyond the words themselves. "We took extensive pictures of the bodies and both breaches. We haven't sealed the rear breach yet. We'd just finished the front when you arrived." The policewoman stepped around her door, closing it. On alert, she came around the front of her patrol vehicle and approached Dave. "Sir, the young woman that entered the house, is that your daughter?" Does she know about the vaccine? Best to play it cagey . "She's my best friend's daughter. I've known her since she was punching her mother's belly from the inside." The officer approached a few more steps as he spoke. At this range, Dave could see the drained appearance behind the weak smile his jest evoked. "You say you took pictures?" "Yes ma'am. We have it saved on a memory card for you." Dave shivered involuntarily. The drizzle had let up and the temperature had risen slightly with the sun. Not that the Sun's presence was particularly notable today. Working on the patch had kept him moving and focused so he didn't register the chill. Now he had the luxury of discomfort. "We carefully took photos of the bodies, the area they fell, and the path in between. We didn't move them ourselves, their buddies did that. Then they, well, take a look." Still wary, the cop walked over to the corpse still splayed out on the driveway. "And you didn't do this?" "No ma'am. We haven't touched the bodies at all. Shot 'em when they were inside the house. Their pals drug them back out here and did this. There's three more on the back deck. We shot two of them in the house. The third was shot by one of his friends, out on the deck." "I'm going to have our mortuary contractor collect the bodies for the Me. Please bring me the memory card with the original images." She beckoned towards the van as Dave moved to the house. Mel once again assured Dave the copies she made were full copies, indistinguishable from originals. Dave took the copied memory card and walked back out. The two figures in hazmat gear carrying the encased body between them were approaching the back of the van when he stepped out into the dreary day once again. "Here's the memory card officer." "Thanks. Two more in the back you say?" "Three. Two that we shot and one shot by his buddies." "Right." "There's a side gate so we can go around the house." "The shooting occurred inside?" "Yes ma'am." "I'm going to need to examine the area myself, and take some notes. There should be a detective along later. I'll make a note in the file that I've collected the pictures you took. She can get them from the station house." "Do you know the detective that's coming?" "No clue." "Then how do you know it'll be a woman?" "Probability, sir." Dave's heart sank. While the officer sounded drained for most of their conversation, those last two words were absolutely desiccated, the depleted echoes of a mind that had seen everything torn asunder, replaced with a nightmare even Wes Craven would run away from. Once the body movers returned, Dave led the three of them through the side gate into the backyard and pointed out the corpses on the back deck. He stayed in the grass to give them plenty of room for their work. The officer scribbled notes as the two body collectors packaged up one corpse and carried it off. She kept a distance from Dave the entire time, with her weapon hip carefully away from him; and the broken glass door. When the collectors came for the second body, she remained at a distance from the scene as they worked. For the third body, she followed them out. She fixed Dave's eyes with her own as she walked off. "I'll be back in a moment to examine the interior." Dave passed into the house through the breach. Lupie was busy in the kitchen with a couple of helpers. Shawna and Liv were in the living room. The younger woman was more obviously on alert, and maybe on edge. An attentive eye could discern Shawna was similarly watchful, but more calm. Liv picked up Dave's SMG to hand it to him. "No, hold on to it. Actually, put the SMG's away. Let's keep the pistols for now though. The policewoman is coming inside shortly. Let's keep the weapons out of sight. She's not a threat, how 'bout the two of you skedaddle up stairs while she's here?" "Sure," Liv replied. "You know the code?" Shawna asked. "Yup. Mom & Dad's wedding year." A sharp rap at the door announced the officer's arrival. Dave was a few steps away from the door, so he strode quickly in that direction after checking that Liv was already inputting the entry code for the gun closet. If he could keep the officer examining the parlor space first, and long enough, Liv and Shawna could get clear before the officer came into the living room. No point in agitating the woman. Dave noticed she was wearing a face mask and gloves when he opened the door. His plan to stall worked. Hell, he didn't even have to try that hard. The Lady asked enough questions about the attempted breach of the door and the eventual entry through the window that Dave heard his two partners ascending the stairs well before he and the officer moved towards the living room. "So this is where the shooting actually occurred?" "Yes ma'am. Liv stood over there at the landing, and I was initially braced against that corner where the hallway meets the room." "Initially?" "Once they broke through the window, I was concerned Liv would be exposed from that direction. They didn't seem interested in coming through the glass door anymore, so I crept forward behind that couch so that I could hit anyone that might try to get an angle on her. I don't think the guy I shot saw her before I shot him." She scribbled furiously in her notebook for a few minutes. Then she asked to speak with Liv. His partner descended; Dave was relieved to see she'd left her firearm upstairs. Lupie, Jan, and Reena passed upstairs after Liv cleared the stairs. The dishes they carried smelled great. If Dave hadn't heard the officer's stomach grumbling, he might have felt sorry for himself. She must have seen the look on his face though. "No, thank you. That would still be inappropriate," she said. "I will need to speak with ;” "Olivia." "; Olivia, alone please." Dave nodded and headed upstairs. Carefully, he lowered himself to a crouching position in the hallway beside the head of the stairs. He couldn't hear the words, but by tracking tone he would be alerted to impending trouble. There was none. It took several minutes, but then he heard Olivia walking the officer to the door. Dave was at the bottom of the stairs before Liv made it back from securing the front door. "All good?" he asked. "Yup," said the brunette. "She look exhausted to you?" "Very." "She say anything about who did this?" "She only asked questions, no answers. I tried a few while the body boys were away from us. No dice." "Boys?" "Dunno, I actually wasn't paying attention." "With the residency of this house, you're having trouble identifying male from female?" Liv said with a wink. Dave's only reply was a bemused glare. Liv's bounteous bust bounced with her laughter. "I love hearing that sound." Shawna's rich tones rolled into the living room as she reached the landing. Dave turned to face her. "Speaking of sounds I love to hear ;” Shawna came closer and kissed him. The feel of her magnificent bust pressed to his chest and the smell of his lover's skin gave Dave thoughts he couldn't address just yet. "I'd tell you that you have me already and don't have to win me over, but I love hearing those sweet nothings." She wrapped her arms around his waist and rubbed her nose on his. "Melanie and I ate already. We'll stand guard down here. You two eat and finish the repairs." Dave kissed her once more, then headed upstairs. Melanie passed him at the foot of the stairs. Liv followed immediately behind him. Dave had to 'endure' a lot of hugs, and a few kisses, within a few feet of entering the spare bedroom Lupie had set up lunch in. Homemade chicken soup with all the rich, deep flavors from multiple ingredients missing from the canned stuff. Plus fresh rolls. He was getting used to being spoiled like this, but damn, it was so good to have a woman around the house. Having nine women around the house sounded like a recipe for disaster, but it hadn't been an issue at all. Which reminded him. "Anyone keeping an eye on Nicole?" "I just came from the master bedroom before you came up," said Jan. "She's still solidly out. As long as it's been, she must be experiencing a regeneration. There's no telling how long she will be unconscious." Dave stopped before her for a lingering kiss and a minute or so of gazing into her eyes before getting a second bowl of soup and two more rolls. Liv lingered over her first bowl, then spent some time talking with Lupie while Dave finished up. "You ready?" Liv asked as he added his bowl to the dirty stack. "Yep. Now for the tough part." He paused in thought. "Did you pick up the glass handling gloves?" "Yeah, bag's on the couch. I don't want either one of us losing a finger." They grabbed the gloves on their way through the living room to the deck. Then things got tricky. First, they removed the fasteners holding the two frame pieces together. The glass was sandwiched between them. Then, with Dave holding high on the large pane, well away from the shattered area, Liv carefully pried the inner frame piece away. Dave had to step over it as she moved it out of the way. The most delicate part came next. Liv ran a flathead screwdriver around the edge of the glass to ensure it came away cleanly. Very gingerly, they pulled the top edge away from the frame, then slowed its descent as its own weight rotated it the rest of the way out. They laid it in the grass. "I really expected the edge by the break to fall apart." "Guess we got lucky." "Damn lucky. Let's get that plywood in place, then we can break that thing into large pieces and dump 'em in the trashcan." With Becca, Esme, and Lupie living in Dave's house, the large rolling trashcans for Lupie's property were empty. One of those had plenty of space for the glass pane. The plywood took some trimming to fit vertically. But there was open space horizontally, so a second piece of plywood was needed to fit the gap. With the frame back in place and secured, Dave and Liv ran a few 2x1's across the seam. A bit of caulk squeezed into the crack would prevent any air leak; or whistling. Breaking and stashing the glass in the spare bin and cleaning the deck area took another forty minutes. By the time they got inside, Jan had already vacuumed the last of the sawdust and glass bits from the carpet adjacent to the sliding door. Dave and Olivia washed up. Liv joined Mel in their room, watching a streaming show on the latter's laptop. Dave went down to the living room, finding most of his family present. "Hey, babe." He slid onto the couch beside Lupie. She immediately nestled into his shoulder. She placed one hand on his chest, the other on his thigh closest to her. "I appreciate everything you've done to keep things working smoothly here while Liv and I dealt with what happened. That helped keep everybody's nerves; manageable." Her hand on his chest gripped tighter, like she was trying to palm him. "You're the one that stood in the line of fire and faced down armed men coming to kill us. Or worse. Making food and cleaning up is not the same." "The value of one act does not negate the value of the other. Cleaning up is the first step in returning some normalcy after the disruption. A hearty meal helps soothe the soul. What you've done matters." Dave barely heard her next utterance. "Just don't leave me David. I need you. Please be careful." He pulled her in tight. "I will." A knock at the door interrupted anything else he might have said. The late afternoon gloom and the chilly air seemed perfect for the woman standing on Dave's doorstep. Not overly short for a woman, she sported jet black hair pulled into a loose ponytail at the base of her neck, and pale skin on an oval face. Her cloth mask covered her mouth. Dave half wondered if the darkness around her eyes was makeup or weariness. Oh good, Detective Wednesday Addams is here . "Hello, sir. I'm Detective Carmen Verratti. I'm here to investigate the break-in and deaths that occurred earlier." The mask she wore muffled her words slightly. An emotion detector would not have registered the tiniest blip as she spoke. One for weariness would have pegged. "Would you like to start with the outside or inside?" Dave queried. "Let's get the outside done before the temperature drops." She took a sip from her insulated beverage bottle. Dave picked up a vague whiff of coffee as he followed her out to the driveway. "I'm not sure what woke me up in the first place. We have a dog, but he was upstairs and deaf. He didn't start barking until after the shooting began. There's chickens in the next yard over. I suppose they might have made a noise, but not once I was awake. I armed myself and left my bedroom. I encountered; one of my housemates on the stairs." Dave continued, walking through each step of the encounter. Once they were past the part where the guys coming in the front broke through the window, they walked around to the back deck. As with the blotch in the driveway, the detective seemed transfixed by the stain on the deck for several seconds. When she was finished with her visual examination of the deck and backyard, she motioned for Dave to lead her inside. Waving to the plywood she asked, "This is the second breach?" "This was the first place they got through. By the sounds of things, they were trying to breach the sliding glass door and the front door at the same time. They just weren't ready for a security door. The guys in the front came through the window, but by that time we'd already taken out two guys coming through the back." "And that's when you heard two men arguing about someone's sister?" "Only one voice got loud enough to pick out words." Liv supplied. "He seemed pretty pissed, so whatever the quieter voice mentioned must not have been pleasant." "So could one of these men be the brother or brothers of one of your partners?" the detective queried. Dave shared uneasy looks with Liv, Shawna, and Lupie. Four brains looked stuck in feedback loops trying to figure out how to respond without breaking the NDA's they'd all signed. "I'm aware of the vaccine and its effects. I was finally informed this morning, though I haven't been partnered yet. It explains some of the changes I've seen around the station." All four visibly relaxed. "That certainly makes this easier. So, I think a few of us have fathers still hunkered down and alive, but no brothers." Shawna supplied. "Well, Niki mentioned she has a brother hiding out in his college dorm somewhere out of state," Lupie mentioned. "Out of state? Not likely to be involved, but can you ask her to come down so I can speak with her?" "She just joined us last night. She's still out as of an hour ago when I last looked in on her." "Please check again. If she's still out, then I may have to come back to follow up with her." Lupie moved like swift water off the couch and up the stairs. She came back down shortly, shaking her head once the detective's attention was on her. While Lupie was away, the detective began asking questions directly of Liv and Shawna. Liv said she'd heard some sort of thumping sound in the back yard, like maybe someone had fallen coming over the fence. It explained her wakefulness, but not mine, given the master bedroom was over the front of the house. Maybe the guys approaching the front made a noise. Maybe my sleeping brain sensed a disturbance in the force. Sometimes you just fucking wake up at an opportune time. Detective Verratti asked the others as well. Shawna hadn't awakened until I was exiting the room, and didn't get out of bed until the glass door was broken. The others didn't wake until the first gunshot. Lupie slipped upstairs to invite the rest of the family to come down, a few at a time, to share their observations. Since most had been upstairs the whole time, they had little to share, and the questions wore out quickly. Dave watched as she spoke with the others. The detective was mildly more relaxed once she admitted to knowing about the serum. Those that had been out of the room for the revelation were informed as they came down, so all of House Belsus seemed mostly comfortable. It was still an interrogation. But Det. Verratti seemed; uncomfortable. She was scratching in her notebook, having just asked one last question of Esme (while she sat on Lupie's lap) when her phone buzzed in her pocket. Lupie looked at her expectantly as Verratti checked her phone. "That's all I needed, thank you. You can head upstairs little miss." She said with a smile. The smile faded once Esme's back was turned. "I have to make a call. I'll step out front, but I have a few more things I want to wrap up with you Mr. Belsus." She grabbed her heavy coat as she headed out. The temperature had been cold all day, and was beginning to drop now that the sun had gone down. "Yes ma'am, I'll be waiting." "I'll make some more coffee." Shawna rose and headed to the kitchen. Liv got up and sat beside Dave, laying her head on his shoulder and wrapping her hands around his bicep. Dave was at one end of the couch, leaving her room to draw her feet up behind her. She killed two men. She's going to be coping for a long time. I never should have let her into that mess. I should have left her at the top of the stairs holding a second line of defense. Then again, with only one target for them, would I have succeeded? What if they had killed me, got to the stairs and then Liv gunned them down? She'd still have these feelings, but I'd be dead. She and all the others would be in deep shit because I'm not around to pump out cum anymore. So I did the right thing right? Maybe. Fuck, if Carter was still here, I could; what did he call it? Do an After Action Review! That's the phrase he used. Tell him what the fuck happened and let him pick it apart, or back me up. Probably a little of both. Fuck, if Carter were still alive, I'm not telling him I'm fucking his daughter! A knock at the door announced the detective's return. Shawna opened the door and led her into the living room. The detective was stony face as she entered. She was also carrying a valise. As she reached the chair she'd used earlier, she took a sniff. Taking the hint, Shawna informed her, "Coffee will be ready in another minute or two. I put on a fresh pot when you stepped out." "Thank you." The detective's face actually showed signs of life. "Professor Belsus, could we speak privately? Somewhere with some table space if you please." "Sure, we can use the dining room. Nice big table in there." The coffee machine chimed just as Verratti placed her valise on the table. She looked expectantly back towards the living room. Lupie and Shawna were already on their way in. "We'll be quick. How do you take yours?" "Black, one spoon of sugar, please." Lupie nodded and kept moving. "Now that I think about it, the library is more isolated, but it doesn't have a large surface like this." Dave confessed. "This will do. I'll wait until they've passed back out to start anything sensitive." She paused briefly. "Well, it's been years, so I don't know if you remember me, but I took your astronomy class about twelve years ago. We ran into each other again on the shoot / no shoot range about five years ago too." "Right. I remember that." To be continued in part 10, Based on a post by RonanJWilkerson, in 12 parts, for Literotica.

In this wide-ranging and intellectually rich conversation, host Pierre Daillie sits down with veteran options trader, market maker, and probabilistic thinker Kris Abdelmessih for a deep exploration of how markets really work beneath the surface—and how investors can think more clearly in a world dominated by uncertainty, noise, and emotion. Drawing on more than two decades of experience spanning Susquehanna International Group, proprietary commodity trading, and portfolio management at Parallax, Abdelmessih explains why options markets reveal truths that stock prices alone cannot, how poker shaped his understanding of risk and decision-making, and why probabilistic thinking—not prediction—separates professionals from amateurs. The discussion moves seamlessly from trading pits and market structure to behavioral bias, prediction markets, volatility, and education, culminating in a thoughtful explanation of Moontower, Abdelmessih's platform designed to help investors understand whether options are cheap, expensive, or inappropriate for a given thesis. This episode is less about “what to buy” and more about how to think—about risk, information, and the difference between being right and making money.

On today's episode, Brian and Josh welcome Mike Johnson, founder of Clearpath and veteran security professional to the pod, whose work with schools worldwide highlights a critical truth: you can't secure a campus with hardware alone.   Mike makes the case that true safety is social, emotional, and physical — and that many schools over-invest in the physical while underestimating what's happening inside classrooms, hallways, and online.    For Mike, safety starts with connection: teachers who notice, counsellors who are empowered, and students who are given language and channels to raise concerns.   Together, the group discusses how to design age-appropriate drills for four-year-olds and teenagers alike without creating unnecessary fear, how to include students as genuine stakeholders in safety planning, and why debriefing drills is just as important as running them.    This is a thoughtful, people-first conversation for school leaders who want their safety programs to protect wellbeing as much as buildings.   Show notes:   00:00 - Introduction to Mike Johnson   04:14 - Why Schools Are Unprepared   06:43 - Social Media, Mental Health & Modern Safety   08:34 - The Risk Venn Diagram: Assets, Threats & Vulnerabilities   10:38 - Probability vs. Impact   14:14 - The Training Gap   17:13 - Safety Belongs in the Mission Statement   18:47 - Removing Fear with the "Even If…" Mindset   21:07 - Access Control: The #1 Vulnerability   24:01 - Success Stories from International Schools   27:41 - Technology ≠ Safety   30:39 - Drills Must Reflect Reality   32:59 - Lightning Round:   42:30 - Closing Thoughts     Learn more about Clearpath and Mike Johnson: https://clearpathepm.com/     This episode is sponsored by REACH Boarding   This episode is sponsored by REACH Boarding, an award-winning, feature-rich boarding school management tool used by over 400 schools in five continents to manage risk, increase efficiency, and improve communication in boarding school management.   To learn more about REACH Boarding, its features and integrations, visit www.reachboarding.com   Empowering the Future of Independent Education & Boarding School Management   Thanks for tuning into this week's episode of Roll Call, don't forget to share your favorite episodes with your colleagues on social media to help us spread the word and help more education professionals stay at the forefront of independent education and boarding school management techniques to empower the future of the education environment.    

On this episode, James Weaver, Matt Manocherian, and Alex Vigderman discuss the wild swings that took place in the Rams/Seahawks, Packers/Bears, and Steelers/Lions games from this past week. Specifically, they took a look at the win probability model and found the key points in each game where there was a major change in win probabilities. Other topics include:- Rashid Shaheed to the rescue!- Onside kicks are back?- Required public speaking course for the officials?ArticlesOptimistic and Pessimistic Takeaways for the Seahawks and Rams After Week 16Off The Charts features a blend of statistical insights, tactical analysis, and personal opinions, aimed at providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the week's key matchups and the intricacies of the sport. You can follow our content on Twitter at @Football_SIS, on Bluesky at @sportsinfosis.bsky.social and at sportsinfosolutions.com.

The Necessities Underlying Reality: Connecting Philosophy of Mathematics, Ethics and Probability (Bloomsbury, 2025) is an open access book that covers four decades of work by the leading Australian philosopher, mathematician and historian of ideas, James Franklin.These interlinking essays are connected by a core theme: the necessary structures in reality that allow certain knowledge of absolute truths. Franklin's Aristotelian realist philosophy of mathematics shows how mathematical truths are directly about physical reality, and at the same time certainly and provably true. Ranging from mathematics to evidence evaluation to ethics, his philosophy of probability sees the relation of evidence to hypothesis, such as in science and law, as purely logical, hence necessary.Across ethics and the philosophy of religion, the theme of necessity is repeated: basic ethical truths (such as the worth of persons and the wrongness of murder) are shown to have the same certainty as mathematics. Focus on the history of ideas connects the philosophical work in the present with the medieval scholastic tradition, which defended similar necessities but is now neglected.Here is an up-to-date introduction to Franklin's overall perspective. Recalling Western philosophy to its roots, it reveals the way absolute necessities are discoverable across the abstract fields of mathematics, logical evidence and ethics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Jeff and Scott are joined by the young man who came up with the podcast's name, and they also chat at length about the Pro Bowl, late-game issues, the Bucs' pass rush, the NFL's crazy Week 16, Pub subs and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Necessities Underlying Reality: Connecting Philosophy of Mathematics, Ethics and Probability (Bloomsbury, 2025) is an open access book that covers four decades of work by the leading Australian philosopher, mathematician and historian of ideas, James Franklin.These interlinking essays are connected by a core theme: the necessary structures in reality that allow certain knowledge of absolute truths. Franklin's Aristotelian realist philosophy of mathematics shows how mathematical truths are directly about physical reality, and at the same time certainly and provably true. Ranging from mathematics to evidence evaluation to ethics, his philosophy of probability sees the relation of evidence to hypothesis, such as in science and law, as purely logical, hence necessary.Across ethics and the philosophy of religion, the theme of necessity is repeated: basic ethical truths (such as the worth of persons and the wrongness of murder) are shown to have the same certainty as mathematics. Focus on the history of ideas connects the philosophical work in the present with the medieval scholastic tradition, which defended similar necessities but is now neglected.Here is an up-to-date introduction to Franklin's overall perspective. Recalling Western philosophy to its roots, it reveals the way absolute necessities are discoverable across the abstract fields of mathematics, logical evidence and ethics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science

Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.See full show notes here

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

Jack Arnold  (1916-1992), who died at the age of 75 in 1992, was the 1950s master of the science fiction film. Among the films he directed were It Came From Outer Space, The Creature from the Black Lagoon, Revenge of the Creature, Tarantula, and The Incredible Shrinking Man. The Probabilities crew – Richard A. Lupoff, Lawrence Davidson and Richard Wolinsky – received a small stipend from a science fiction convention and flew to Los Angeles to interview Jack Arnold in his office at Universal Studios. The interview is undated but was recorded in around 1980, give or take a year. Arnold's memory was fuzzy on when films were released. IMDb lists It Came from Outer Space, along with two film noirs  in 1953, Creature from the Black Lagoon in 1954 and Revenge of the Creature in 1955. The first western, The Man from Bitter Ridge along with Tarantula and his work on This Island Earth also came from 1955. The rest of the westerns, along with The Incredible Shrinking Man and the Peter Sellers classic The Mouse That Roared, came between 1956 and 1959. After that, he directed a couple more A pictures, as he called them, but his primary work moved to television, and from then until his retirement in 1984, he was constantly working on projects for the small screen, interspersed with the occasional film. At the end of the interview, he discusses a remake of Conan Doyle's The Lost World, complete with storyboards. That project never did get off the ground, though it's possible later versions used some of Arnold's pre-planning. And, not to forget, he helped turn Gilligan's Island into a cultural (for better or worse) icon. Digitized, remastered and edited by Richard Wolinsky in July 2021, and originally posted on August 1, 2021. The post The Probabilities Archive: Jack Arnold (1916-1992), film director, “Creature from the Black Lagoon” and others, 1980ish appeared first on KPFA.

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 49, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 14th December 2025 with the brilliant Adam Lawrence, the founder of Propenomix YouTube https://youtu.be/9vDevQx9wEY ✅ New Listings * 16.2k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 19.4k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.1k. * 9 year week 49 average : 19.5k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.669m new listings, 0.1% below than 2024 YTD (1.670m) and 7% above the 2017–19 average (1.559m) ✅ Price Reductions * 9.1k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 12.8k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 17.2k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 18.5k last week. * Week 49 average (for last 9 years) : 18.7k * 2025 weekly average : 25.3k. * YTD: 1.238m gross sales, which is 2.3% ahead of 2024 (1.211m) and 11.4% above the 2017–19 average (1.111m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £403k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £352k * A 14.6% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in November. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 12.9k net sales this week, down expectedly from 13.7k last week. * Nine-year Week 49 average: 13.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.2k. * YTD: 942k, which is 1.9% ahead of 2024 (924k) and 8.4% above 2017–19 (868k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 55.2% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 482k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st December, almost identical than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * November 2025 agreed sales averaged £342.27 per sq.ft. 0.7% higher than 12 months ago and 12.6% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in November - £1,792 pcm - compared to £1,798 in Nov 2024 and £1,405 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in November '25 - 321k compared to 300k in November '24. * Notable increase of 22.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 3.7% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why ✅ Graphs https://we.tl/t-i2gNxxE5mz

AI pioneer YOSHUA BENGIO, Godfather of AI, reveals the DANGERS of Agentic AI, killer robots, and cyber crime, and how we MUST build AI that won't harm people…before it's too late.  Professor Yoshua Bengio is a Computer Science Professor at the Université de Montréal and one of the 3 original Godfathers of AI. He is the most-cited scientist in the world on Google Scholar, a Turing Award winner, and the founder of LawZero, a non-profit organisation focused on building safe and human-aligned AI systems.  He explains: ◼️Why agentic AI could develop goals we can't control ◼️How killer robots and autonomous weapons become inevitable ◼️The hidden cyber crime and deepfake threat already unfolding ◼️Why AI regulation is weaker than food safety laws ◼️How losing control of AI could threaten human survival [00:00] Why Have You Decided to Step Into the Public Eye?   [02:53] Did You Bring Dangerous Technology Into the World?   [05:23] Probabilities of Risk   [08:18] Are We Underestimating the Potential of AI?   [10:29] How Can the Average Person Understand What You're Talking About?   [13:40] Will These Systems Get Safer as They Become More Advanced?   [20:33] Why Are Tech CEOs Building Dangerous AI?   [22:47] AI Companies Are Getting Out of Control   [24:06] Attempts to Pause Advancements in AI   [27:17] Power Now Sits With AI CEOs   [35:10] Jobs Are Already Being Replaced at an Alarming Rate   [37:27] National Security Risks of AI   [43:04] Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)   [44:44] Ads   [48:34] The Risk You're Most Concerned About   [49:40] Would You Stop AI Advancements if You Could?   [54:46] Are You Hopeful?   [55:45] How Do We Bridge the Gap to the Everyday Person?   [56:55] Love for My Children Is Why I'm Raising the Alarm   [01:00:43] AI Therapy   [01:02:43] What Would You Say to the Top AI CEOs?   [01:07:31] What Do You Think About Sam Altman?   [01:09:37] Can Insurance Companies Save Us From AI?   [01:12:38] Ads   [01:16:19] What Can the Everyday Person Do About This?   [01:18:24] What Citizens Should Do to Prevent an AI Disaster   [01:20:56] Closing Statement   [01:22:51] I Have No Incentives   [01:24:32] Do You Have Any Regrets?   [01:27:32] Have You Received Pushback for Speaking Out Against AI?   [01:28:02] What Should People Do in the Future for Work?   Follow Yoshua: LawZero - https://bit.ly/44n1sDG  Mila - https://bit.ly/4q6SJ0R  Website - https://bit.ly/4q4RqiL  You can purchase Yoshua's book, ‘Deep Learning (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series)', here: https://amzn.to/48QTrZ8  The Diary Of A CEO: ◼️Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/  ◼️Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook  ◼️The 1% Diary is back - limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt  ◼️The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition) - https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb  ◼️Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt  ◼️Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb  Sponsors:  Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/DOAC  Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Rubrik - To learn more, head to https://rubrik.com

Episode Description: To stop the POGs' prediction network, Max and Molly realize they need help—and fast. However, they are torn on whether or not they can trust Charlene.  To test her honesty, they recreate an experiment with a “lost” wallet stuffed with cash. Will Charlene pass the test?  As math, probability, and human behavior collide, the Problem Solvers learn that trust might be the most valuable currency of all. Math Concepts: Ratios and fractions; Percent conversion; Probability and win–loss percentages in sports; Division and rounding; Estimation and Averages; Multiplication with large numbersHistory/Geography Concepts: Real-world behavioral science experiment on lost wallets (conducted across 40 countries); Quarantine and disease prevention (mono); The concept of global research studies and data collection

This week on the California Sports Lawyer Podcast, host Jeremy Evans examines a growing question in modern sports: who owns probability. As leagues, sportsbooks, data firms, and media platforms expand real-time analytics and betting content, win probabilities, predictive models, and live odds are becoming valuable assets. Jeremy explains how probability is created, packaged, and monetized across broadcasts, apps, and betting platforms, and where the legal lines fall between raw sports data, proprietary modeling, and intellectual property. The episode also explores what this means for leagues and teams asserting control over official data, sportsbooks building differentiated products, and media partners using probability to shape fan engagement. Finally, we look ahead at how rights deals and disputes may evolve as probability becomes a core part of the sports product. (Season 7, Episode 49). Copyright 2025. California Sports Lawyer. All Rights Reserved. (www.CSLlegal.com) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joshua P. Warren is a renowned paranormal investigator, author, and experimental researcher known for pushing the boundaries of consciousness, intention, and reality itself. Best known for his work with Wishing Machines and the emerging field of Para-Cymatics, Warren explores how focused human intention, sound, symbols, and vibrational patterns may interact with physical systems to influence outcomes in measurable ways. Through hands-on experimentation, field research, and innovative devices, he bridges folklore, metaphysics, and fringe science—inviting audiences to reconsider the relationship between mind, matter, and the hidden forces shaping our world. Warren's work challenges conventional assumptions and opens a provocative dialogue about manifestation, probability manipulation, and the power of belief when coupled with technology.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-x-zone-radio-tv-show--1078348/support.Please note that all XZBN radio and/or television shows are Copyright © REL-MAR McConnell Meda Company, Niagara, Ontario, Canada – www.rel-mar.com. For more Episodes of this show and all shows produced, broadcasted and syndicated from REL-MAR McConell Media Company and The 'X' Zone Broadcast Network and the 'X' Zone TV Channell, visit www.xzbn.net. For programming, distribution, and syndication inquiries, email programming@xzbn.net.We are proud to announce the we have launched TWATNews.com, launched in August 2025.TWATNews.com is an independent online news platform dedicated to uncovering the truth about Donald Trump and his ongoing influence in politics, business, and society. Unlike mainstream outlets that often sanitize, soften, or ignore stories that challenge Trump and his allies, TWATNews digs deeper to deliver hard-hitting articles, investigative features, and sharp commentary that mainstream media won't touch.These are stories and articles that you will not read anywhere else.Our mission is simple: to expose corruption, lies, and authoritarian tendencies while giving voice to the perspectives and evidence that are often marginalized or buried by corporate-controlled media

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 48, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 7th December 2025 with the brilliant Toby Martin from ‘We Are Unchained' YouTube https://youtu.be/yiu-A9bWAD4 ✅ New Listings * 19.4k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 22.7k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.4k. * 9 year week 48 average : 22.8k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.652m new listings, 0.2% higher than 2024 YTD (1.649m) and 7.7% above the 2017–19 average (1.534m) ✅ Price Reductions * 12.8k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 13.2k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 18.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 20.3k last week. * Week 48 average (for last 9 years) : 20.6k * 2025 weekly average : 25.4k. * YTD: 1.221m gross sales, which is 2.6% ahead of 2024 (1.190m) and 11.6% above the 2017–19 average (1.094m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £406k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £352k * A 15.3% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in November. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 13.7k net sales this week, down expectedly from 15.2k last week. * Nine-year Week 48 average: 15.4k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.3k. * YTD: 929k, which is 2.2% ahead of 2024 (909k) and 8.6% above 2017–19 (855k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 54.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). (65.3k exchanges & 55k withdrawals as at 8th Dec 2025) * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 482k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st December, almost identical than 12 months ago. * ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * November 2025 agreed sales averaged £342.27 per sq.ft. 0.7% higher than 12 months ago and 12.6% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in November - £1,791 pcm - compared to £1,785 in Nov 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in November '25 - 321k compared to 300k in November '24. * Notable increase of 22.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 3.7% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why ✅ Graphs https://we.tl/t-KxpRzfwuvw

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – December 11, 2025 appeared first on KPFA.

Week 15 NFL playoff probabilities and Tommy Yarrish joins the show.

Two Reasons there's a High Probability of a Santa Rally Co's Mentioned Today: Begbies Traynor #BEG Diales Group #DIAL Oxford Metrics #OMG XP Factory #XPF ***** About The SharePickers Investment Club ***** The SharePickers Investment Club employs a unique, systematic method to uncover small, profitable companies on the London Stock Exchange.  Each potential investment undergoes comprehensive analysis and is evaluated against 15 crucial financial metrics.  This fact-based, quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint high-potential growth businesses and deliver consistent results, bypassing the hype and focusing on the numbers.  *****MY BOOK ***** How to Become a MicroCap Millionaire - A 3 Step Strategy for Stock Market Success  Is now on sale here: https://www.sharepickers.com/how-to-become-a-microcap-millionaire-3-step-strategy/ !!!IF YOU BUY THE BOOK YOU CAN GET 40% OFF MEMBERSHIP TO THE SHAREPICKERS INVESTMENT CLUB!!! HOW? If you buy a copy of the book, then like it enough to leave a 5 star rating & write a positive review, you can get yearly membership to the SharePickers Investment Club for just  £149!!! THIS IS £2.88 WEEK - LESS THAN: HALF A PINT OF BEER A BAG CHIPS FROM THE CHIPPY A BATTERED JUMBO SAUSAGE FROM THE CHIPPY A JUMBO SAVELOY FROM THE CHIPPY HALF THE AMOUNT A PERSON SPENDS ON CHOCOLATE 40% CHEAPER THAN A MCDONALDS FILAY-O-FISH 43% CHEAPER THAN A BIG MAC ONE FEEDS YOUR BELLY AND DESTROYS YOUR HEALTH, THE OTHER FEEDS YOU MIND AND IMPROVES YOUR WEALTH —---------------------------------------------------------------------- In this podcast I cover the Microcap News to see if they're good enough to be added to the MicroCap League. The UK's first MicroCap League where 100's of small businesses are analysed and scored in relation to their growth, value, health, efficiency, momentum & potential. The companies that score the highest are added to the MicroCap League and possess the best risk / reward profile. —---------------------------------------------------------------------- If you regularly listen to this podcast and value its content, it's a free resource, so please consider paying back in kind by giving it a 5 star rating and review. That way more people will find it. Thank you!

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 47, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show “for the week ending Sunday 30th November 2025 with the awesome Steph Vass from TAUK YouTube https://youtu.be/kmrRZh1gFCs ✅ New Listings * 22.7k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 24.7k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.7k. * 9 year week 47 average : 25k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.633m new listings, 0.5% higher than 2024 YTD (1.624m) and 8.1% above the 2017–19 average (1.511m) ✅ Price Reductions * 13.2k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 13.4k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 20.3k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 20.9k last week. * Week 47 average (for last 9 years) :21.8k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.203m gross sales, which is 3% ahead of 2024 (1.167m) and 11.9% above the 2017–19 average (1.074m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £452k vs (£395 for the month before). This a massive jump and is down to a large number of Inner London home sin the £1.5m+ coming on the market. * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £350k (in line with the average of 2025) - a 29.3% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%. ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in October. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,054 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,128. * Fall-through rate: 25%, slightly up from 24.7% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 15.2k net sales this week, down expectedly from 15.7k last week. * Nine-year Week 47 average: 16.2k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.4k. * YTD: 914k, which is 2.6% ahead of 2024 (892k) and 9.1% above 2017–19 (840k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 53.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). (49.7k exchanges & 43.6k withdrawals as at 3rd Dec 2025) * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. (1st December figures to follow in next week's show). ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show.

Gene Goldman sees a low probability of a Santa Claus rally this year, arguing that “we have a terrible market backdrop” as Bitcoin drives markets lower, the Fed turns hawkish, and inflation persists. He sees “very little room for multiple expansion” and thinks that 2026 returns will only be in the single digits. However, Gene expects AI and technology to remain bullish. Another favored sector is healthcare.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Okay friends, buckle up, because today's episode is one of those “wait… why has no one explained success like THIS before?” moments. We're talking with Kyle Austin Young who breaks down success not as a magical personality trait, but as something you can literally math your way into.Kyle takes us into the world of probability hacking, a shockingly simple way to figure out your real chances of success in anything (launching a business, writing a book, running a marathon) and then shows you how to change those odds in your favor.If you've ever wondered why some goals finally click, and others fall apart even when you want them just as much…this conversation is going to change how you think forever.FAQs from the EpisodeWhat exactly is probability hacking, and do I need to be good at math to use it?Nope! Probability hacking is simply listing out everything that has to go right for your goal to succeed…then calculating your actual chances instead of relying on vibes and wishful thinking. Kyle walks through it using basic numbers you can do on your phone, no spreadsheets, and no formulas that look like they escaped from NASA.How does this help me as a solopreneur?Because solopreneurs love goals…but often underestimate how many things have to align to actually hit them. Kyle's framework helps you see where your plan is fragile, what's likely to derail it, and, most importantly, how to systematically remove risk so your odds of success jump dramatically. How do I know whether to keep pushing or quit a goal?Kyle doesn't believe in quitting, he believes in pausing strategically. If your odds still look terrible even after removing risk, he suggests exploring alternate paths that may get you to your real underlying goal more efficiently. It's not giving up; it's probability-based pivoting.

Dogecoin started as a joke. Now it's building a blockchain empire.In this episode, Rob sits down with TJ Miller and Jordan Jefferson to explore how Dogecoin evolved from a meme into a serious contender for global adoption. From building DogeOS as the app layer for Dogecoin to the DogeShow's citizen journalism model, TJ and Jordan explain why crypto needs more comedy, less seriousness and why Doge might actually become the interplanetary currency.We discuss:- How Dogecoin Became More Than a Meme- Why Bitcoin Maxis Missed the Point- Building DogeOS: The App Layer for Dogecoin- The Dog Show: Citizen Journalism Meets Crypto- Could Doge Be the Interplanetary Currency?- Why Crypto Needs More Comedy & Less Seriousness- Dogecoin vs. Its Derivatives (Shiba, Dogwifhat)Timestamps:00:00 Intro01:42 Seoul Vibes & Conference Culture05:31 AI's Probability of Doom08:14 How TJ & Jordan Met at Bitcoin Vegas11:03 TJ's Bitcoin Maxi Origins13:36 Birth of The Dog Show14:42 Halliday Ad, infiniFi Ad, Kalshi Ad15:19 Dogecoin's Unique Lore Speedrun18:45 Building DogeOS on Dogecoin22:21 Dogecoin vs. Solana Comparison25:11 Political Dynamics & Governance28:00 Could Doge Be What Bitcoin Should've Been?29:00 Relay Ad, Trezor Ad30:08 Interplanetary Currency Theory33:27 Derivative Meme Coins Discussion37:19 Why Comedy Matters in Crypto41:03 Leveling Up Absurdity with Utility42:23 Deadpool's Groundbreaking Impact44:19 Where to Find The Doge ShowWebsite: https://therollup.co/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd...Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcastFollow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupcoFollow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollupFollow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandyJoin our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZhThe Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl

After a long hiatus where we both saw grief counsellors over our fight about Popper's theory of content in the last C&R episode, we are back. And we're ready to play nice ... for about 30 seconds until Vaden admits that two sentences from Popper changed his mind about something Ben had arguing for literally years. But eventually putting those disagreements aside, we return to the subject at hand: The Conjectures and Refutations Series: Chapter 10: Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Part II). Here all goes smoothly. Just kidding, we start fighting about content again almost immediately. Where are the guests to break us up when you need them. We discuss Why Vaden changed his mind about "all thought is problem solving" Something that rhymes with wero horship Is Popper sloppy when it comes to writing about probability and content Is all modern data science based on the wrong idea? (Hint: No) Popper's problem-focused view of scientific progress How much formalization is too much? The difference between high verisimilitude and high probability Why do we value simplicity in science? Historical examples of science progressing via theories with increasing content Quotes Consciousness, world 2, was presumably an evaluating and discerning consciousness, a problem-solving consciousness, right from the start. I have said of the animate part of the physical world 1 that all organisms are problem solvers. My basic assumption regarding world 2 is that this problem-solving activity of the animate part of world 1 resulted in the emergence of world 2, of the world of consciousness. But I do not mean by this that consciousness solves problems all the time, as I asserted of the organisms. On the contrary. The organisms are preoccupied with problem-solving day in, day out, but consciousness is not only concerned with the solving of problems, although that is its most important biological function. My hypothesis is that the original task of consciousness was to anticipate success and failure in problem-solving and to signal to the organism in the form of pleasure and pain whether it was on the right or wrong path to the solution of the problem. In Search of a Better World, p.17 (emphasis added) The criterion of potential satisfactoriness is thus testability, or improbability: only a highly testable or improbable theory is worth testing, and is actually (and not merely potentially) satisfactory if it withstands severe tests—especially those tests to which we could point as crucial for the theory before they were ever undertaken. - C&R, Chapter 10 Consequently there is little merit in formalizing and elaborating a deductive system (intended for use as an empirical science) beyond the requirements of the task of criticizing and testing it, and of comparing it critically with competitors. - C&R, Chapter 10 Admittedly, our expectations, and thus our theories, may precede, historically, even our problems. Yet science starts only with problems. Problems crop up especially when we are disappointed in our expectations, or when our theories involve us in difficulties, in contradictions; and these may arise either within a theory, or between two different theories, or as the result of a clash between our theories and our observations. - C&R, Chapter 10 Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) Is "Ben and Vaden will fight about content" high or low probability? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

News stories are filled with tales of risk and uncertainty. We're told the probable chance of a weather event or how likely it is that we might contract an illness. There's an art to telling stories with uncertainty that provides context and nuance that is often missing. That is the focus of this episode of Stats+Stories with guest David Spiegelhalter. Sir David Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Emeritus Professor at the University of Cambridge, known for his work on risk communication and public understanding of statistics. He is the author of The Art of Statistics, a former President of the Royal Statistical Society, and was knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics. He also presented BBC documentaries and is the founder of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge. Inspiration Behind the Book (1:11) Defining Uncertainty and Its Impact (4:14) Storytelling and Examples in the Book (7:48) Probability and Communication (12:54) Trustworthy Communication (17:34) Application of Trustworthy Communication Principles (19:14) Deep Uncertainty and Imagination (27:42)

You think you're rational? Think again. We love feeling like thoughtful decision-makers, but the truth is we're riddled with cognitive shortcuts. Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize-winning work breaks down the systems of our mind. We constantly substitute hard questions with easy ones; e.g. Buying a stock because you like the company, not because you've done the data. This episode cuts through the 300,000-word book to show you exactly how these shortcuts lead to everything from bad investments to pointless stress about the weather. It's time to stop letting your brain's simple tricks run your whole life. Stop overestimating the importance of your current stress. Identify and reduce low-level daily pains (like a bad commute) for massive life returns. Implement a "sleep-on-it" rule to override System 1's instant commitments. Why let a lazy brain ruin your best decisions? Start thinking slower today. Further Reading: ⁠Thinking Fast and Slow⁠ - Daniel Kahneman ⁠Predictably Irrational⁠ - Dan Ariely SPONSORS

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia's moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs?   MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting Probability of an interest rate cut Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings? Looking at when sentiment was low during good periods of market gains Did Nvidia calm the AI is a bubble trade? Rob Arnott comments around AI vs the internet from Excess Returns   Mentioned in this Episode   Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

What happens when autobattlers fail to monetize? We pull Arto Huhta into the cast and chat about Telegram's pseudo-WeChat ambitions. Eric releases a distrack on Game Designer's obsessed social spaces, and Phil wants more blood from psychologists' nonsensical F2P "choice overload." Chris enleashes a model-meets-UGC experiment: a three-algorithm simulation that shows how recommendation systems distort consumer welfare and creator inequality. We discuss: How Arto sees the split between economy design, product management, and classical economics (hint: it's not what you think) Pets as permanent progression, and the design logic behind Nonstop Knight's monetization turnaround Why creator inequality explodes under bad reinforcement A brewing debate on regulation that is just getting started... Chapters 00:00 Journey to London: A Game Developer's Path 00:49 The Role of Economy Design in Gaming 01:20 From Academia to Game Development: Bridging the Gap 03:16 Experimentation in Game Design: Lessons Learned 05:22 The Intersection of Game Design and Economics 10:07 Understanding Game Development Roles 11:00 Monetization Strategies in Game Design 11:55 The Evolution of Publishing Models 12:42 Transitioning to Web 3: New Challenges 13:54 The Economics of Game Spending 18:27 Introduction to Game Economist Cast 19:06 Current Gaming Trends and Preferences 20:51 Game Modes and Player Engagement 22:03 The Future of Game Monetization 27:33 The Social Hub Experiment in Fighting Games 28:26 Street Fighter VI and Social Interaction 30:28 The Rise of HTML5 Games on Platforms 32:37 The Trend of Casual Games in Tech Companies 34:42 Telegram Games: A New Frontier 37:21 Challenges in Game Discovery on Telegram 38:52 User Engagement and Retention in Web3 Gaming 39:43 Consumer Welfare and Content Creation Dynamics 43:04 The Impact of Algorithms on User Experience 49:31 Heterogeneous Goods and Their Effects on Engagement 57:35 The Impact of Algorithms on Content Quality 59:04 Understanding Algorithmic Risks and User Retention 01:00:16 Exploring Algorithm Design in Gaming Platforms 01:01:54 The Role of User Choice in Content Discovery 01:04:29 The Future of Pricing Strategies in Free-to-Play Games 01:08:10 The Debate on Standardization and Market Forces Chapters (00:00:00) - The Cost of Free Speech(00:00:49) - Game of Connors Cast(00:01:16) - Meet Free-To-Play Designer Phil Rubin(00:02:43) - The Art of Being a Game Economist(00:03:59) - How to Get Out of Your Job(00:05:22) - Are You More of an Economist or a Designer?(00:07:51) - Candy Crush: Experimentation and Optimization(00:10:07) - Ex-Monetization Manager at King Publishing(00:12:30) - Have We Overreacted to Free-To-Play?(00:15:17) - Half-Off and the Price(00:18:27) - How To Make a Slop slideshow(00:18:56) - What Have You Been Playing?(00:20:35) - Clash Royale: The Future of Content(00:23:55) - How To Play Hearthstone With Re-rolling(00:25:59) - 2K XO: A Hardcore Fighting Game(00:29:37) - Fortnite vs. Monster Hunter: The Social Hub(00:30:29) - Are We Ready for Content in the Future?(00:34:24) - Facebook vs Instagram: What's The Difference?(00:34:57) - Telegram's plans for games(00:36:22) - How Telegram Could Make Games More Profitable(00:43:15) - The Probability of Encountering a Good(00:44:28) - Anatomy of Facebook's algorithm(00:49:53) - The Gini coefficient of content creators profit(00:54:30) - Measuring the social network's heterogeneous goods(00:58:58) - The Mix of Algorithms and Churn(01:01:07) - Do Algorithm Designers Care About Producer GENIE?(01:01:55) - What Should Roblox Do About Popularity?(01:03:51) - Too Much Choice in Online Content(01:05:56) - Is There Choice Overload in Mobile Games?(01:06:49) - What about discounts on hard currency purchases?(01:07:46) - Free-To-Play: Quantity Based Discounts(01:11:11) - USB 2.0: Standardization(01:12:11) - Roblox: Arto on UGC(01:13:27) - GIM economist cast episode 44

Dr. Don and Professor Ben talk about the risks of eating hand sliced Prosciutto ham stored at room temperature for months. Dr. Don - not risky

Stephen Wolfram answers questions from his viewers about the future of science and technology as part of an unscripted livestream series, also available on YouTube here: https://wolfr.am/youtube-sw-qaTopics discussed: How alien life would affect science - Probability and the origins of life - Computation, encoded intelligence and simulated models of civilizations - Alien math class

Matter of Cahuec Tzalam, 29 I&N Dec. 300 (BIA 2025)Special Immigration Juvenile Status; administrative closure; requirement to establish prima facie eligibility; some foreseeable resolution; visa bulletin; 8 C.F.R. § 1003.18(c)(3)  Solis-Flores v. Bondi, No. 22-1147 (4th Cir. Nov. 13, 2025)receipt of stolen property CIMT; VA Code § 18.2-108; realistic probability test; Loper Bright; CIMT definition in the Fourth CircuitKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years. Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Homepage!Demo Link!Get the Guide! Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/ Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerDISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

The ceiling you fear is built from yesterday's beliefs. In today's episode, Kevin and Alan break down the hidden mechanics of capability, identity, and long-term performance. You'll learn why most people misjudge what they can become, how past reps shape future ceilings, and why discomfort and discipline remain the only reliable indicators of growth. Step in, question your ceiling, and let the truth recalibrate your path.Learn more about:

If the phrase "Bayesian calculus" makes you run for the hills, you're not alone! Bayesian logic can sound intimidating at first, but if you give it a little time, you'll understand how useful it can be to evaluate the evidence for design in the natural world. On this ID The Future, Dr. Jonathan McLatchie gives us a beginner's guide to Bayesian thinking and teaches us how it can be used to build a strong cumulative case for intelligent design, as well as how we can use it in our everyday lives. Enjoying the podcast? Leave a written review at Apple Podcasts to help new listeners find the show! Source

Episode Description: It's the holidays, and Max and Molly are ready for two weeks of cookie-eating and cocoa-sipping—until a mysterious package arrives down the chimney. When the gift leads them to a riddle-filled party at Problem Solver HQ – fun Math games turn into accusations including Max making a shocking claim – that a Mole might be among the Problem Solvers! Math Concepts:  Multiplication for calculating time off from school; Probability and odds; Multiples of 3 and 4; Prime number identification; Reinforcement of number theory and divisibility rules.History/Geography Concepts: Ethical reasoning and logic in problem-solving; Historical references to “stooges” and wrongful accusation through time; Probability in games of chance and its real-world implications.

Science has an incredibly impressive track record of uncovering nonintuitive ideas about the universe that turn out to be surprisingly accurate. It can be tempting to think of scientific discoveries as being carefully constructed atop a rock-solid foundation. In reality, scientific progress is tentative and fallible. Scientists propose models, assign them probabilities, and run tests to see whether they succeed or fail. In cosmologist Andrew Jaffe's new book, The Random Universe, he illustrates how models and probability help us make sense of the cosmos.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/11/10/335-andrew-jaffe-on-models-probability-and-the-universe/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Andrew Jaffe received his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Chicago. He is currently a professor of astrophysics and cosmology and Director of the Imperial Centre for Inference and Cosmology at Imperial College, London. His research lies at the intersection of theoretical and observational cosmology, including the Planck Surveyor, Euclid, LISA, and Simons Observatory collaborations.Web siteImperial web pageGoogle Scholar publicationsAmazon author pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1917

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1898

Clinical psychologist and author Dr. Diana Hill joins Gabby to explore how to channel your energy with intention and align your strengths for greater clarity and purpose. While discussing her new book Wise Effort, she explains to Gabby and the audience that each of us has a “genius” that we haven't yet tapped into. Drawing on mindfulness and behavioral science, Diana shares how to move from striving to wise effort by knowing when to push, when to pause, and how to focus your time on what truly matters. Together they discuss self compassion, discipline and how to cultivate balance while pursuing meaningful goals. Dr. Diana Hill Instagram https://www.instagram.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Facebook https://www.facebook.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdianahill/  Dr. Diana Hill Website https://drdianahill.com/ Thank You to Our Sponsors Timeline - My friends at Timeline are offering 20% off, just for my listeners. Head to timeline.com/gabby to get started. Ritual - Get 25% off your first month at ritual.com/GABBY Get 10% off TUSHY with the code GABBY10 at https://hellotushy.com/GABBY10 For more on Gabby Instagram @GabbyReece: https://www.instagram.com/gabbyreece/ TikTok @GabbyReeceOfficial https://www.tiktok.com/@gabbyreeceofficial The Gabby Reece Show Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GabbyReece  The Gabby Reece Show podcast is produced by Rainbow Creative (https://www.rainbowcreative.co/)  Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Today's Message 00:26 Guest Introduction: Diana Hill 00:48 Sponsor Message: Timeline Longevity Gummies 02:57 Diana Hill's New Book: Wise Effort 05:46 Diana's Personal Journey and Struggles 06:34 The Myth of Persephone and Personal Genius 08:05 Understanding and Managing Personal Traits 12:08 The Role of Supportive Relationships 14:08 Finding Balance and Self-Acceptance 34:47 Curiosity and Its Importance 37:44 Navigating Grief with Curiosity 39:06 The Rise of Openness in Psychology 40:42 The Tushy Bidet Experience 42:48 Understanding Wise Effort 50:51 Compassion vs. Empathy 58:32 Possibility vs. Probability 01:04:11 Final Thoughts and Reflections Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices