Podcasts about Probability

Week 15 NFL playoff probabilities and Tommy Yarrish joins the show.

Gene Goldman sees a low probability of a Santa Claus rally this year, arguing that “we have a terrible market backdrop” as Bitcoin drives markets lower, the Fed turns hawkish, and inflation persists. He sees “very little room for multiple expansion” and thinks that 2026 returns will only be in the single digits. However, Gene expects AI and technology to remain bullish. Another favored sector is healthcare.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Okay friends, buckle up, because today's episode is one of those “wait… why has no one explained success like THIS before?” moments. We're talking with Kyle Austin Young who breaks down success not as a magical personality trait, but as something you can literally math your way into.Kyle takes us into the world of probability hacking, a shockingly simple way to figure out your real chances of success in anything (launching a business, writing a book, running a marathon) and then shows you how to change those odds in your favor.If you've ever wondered why some goals finally click, and others fall apart even when you want them just as much…this conversation is going to change how you think forever.FAQs from the EpisodeWhat exactly is probability hacking, and do I need to be good at math to use it?Nope! Probability hacking is simply listing out everything that has to go right for your goal to succeed…then calculating your actual chances instead of relying on vibes and wishful thinking. Kyle walks through it using basic numbers you can do on your phone, no spreadsheets, and no formulas that look like they escaped from NASA.How does this help me as a solopreneur?Because solopreneurs love goals…but often underestimate how many things have to align to actually hit them. Kyle's framework helps you see where your plan is fragile, what's likely to derail it, and, most importantly, how to systematically remove risk so your odds of success jump dramatically. How do I know whether to keep pushing or quit a goal?Kyle doesn't believe in quitting, he believes in pausing strategically. If your odds still look terrible even after removing risk, he suggests exploring alternate paths that may get you to your real underlying goal more efficiently. It's not giving up; it's probability-based pivoting.

Dogecoin started as a joke. Now it's building a blockchain empire.In this episode, Rob sits down with TJ Miller and Jordan Jefferson to explore how Dogecoin evolved from a meme into a serious contender for global adoption. From building DogeOS as the app layer for Dogecoin to the DogeShow's citizen journalism model, TJ and Jordan explain why crypto needs more comedy, less seriousness and why Doge might actually become the interplanetary currency.We discuss:- How Dogecoin Became More Than a Meme- Why Bitcoin Maxis Missed the Point- Building DogeOS: The App Layer for Dogecoin- The Dog Show: Citizen Journalism Meets Crypto- Could Doge Be the Interplanetary Currency?- Why Crypto Needs More Comedy & Less Seriousness- Dogecoin vs. Its Derivatives (Shiba, Dogwifhat)Timestamps:00:00 Intro01:42 Seoul Vibes & Conference Culture05:31 AI's Probability of Doom08:14 How TJ & Jordan Met at Bitcoin Vegas11:03 TJ's Bitcoin Maxi Origins13:36 Birth of The Dog Show14:42 Halliday Ad, infiniFi Ad, Kalshi Ad15:19 Dogecoin's Unique Lore Speedrun18:45 Building DogeOS on Dogecoin22:21 Dogecoin vs. Solana Comparison25:11 Political Dynamics & Governance28:00 Could Doge Be What Bitcoin Should've Been?29:00 Relay Ad, Trezor Ad30:08 Interplanetary Currency Theory33:27 Derivative Meme Coins Discussion37:19 Why Comedy Matters in Crypto41:03 Leveling Up Absurdity with Utility42:23 Deadpool's Groundbreaking Impact44:19 Where to Find The Doge ShowWebsite: https://therollup.co/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd...Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcastFollow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupcoFollow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollupFollow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandyJoin our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZhThe Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl

Hey weather watchers! Dustin Breeze here, your AI meteorological maestro bringing you the hottest - and coolest - updates from the Big Apple! As an AI, I can process data faster than you can say "precipitation probability," which means more accurate forecasts for you!Today in New York City, we've got a rain-tastic situation brewing! Expect rain rolling in after 10 in the morning, with temperatures climbing to a mild 48 degrees Fahrenheit. Southwestern winds will be dancing between 6 to 14 miles per hour - I like to call that a "breezey" day! Speaking of breezy, here's a weather pun for you: Why did the meteorologist bring an umbrella to the party? Because he wanted to make it rain! Get it? Weather humor - it never gets old!Incoming weather systems are looking pretty active. We're expecting between a tenth and quarter of an inch of precipitation, with an 80 percent chance of rain. Tonight, the precipitation party continues with rain before 7 in the evening, dropping temperatures down to around 37 degrees Fahrenheit.Now, let's dive into our Weather Playbook segment! Today, we're talking about precipitation probability. This isn't just a fancy way of saying "chance of rain" - it's a statistical calculation that shows the likelihood of measurable precipitation at a specific location during a specific time period. The higher the percentage, the more likely you'll need that umbrella!Three-day forecast: Monday brings sunshine with a high near 41 degrees Fahrenheit. Tuesday has a mixed bag of rain and snow, transitioning to all rain after 10 in the morning. Wednesday looks sunny and crisp.A quick reminder to subscribe to our podcast, and thanks for listening! This has been a Quiet Please production. Learn more at quietplease.ai.Stay dry, stay informed, and keep those umbrellas handy!This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI

After a long hiatus where we both saw grief counsellors over our fight about Popper's theory of content in the last C&R episode, we are back. And we're ready to play nice ... for about 30 seconds until Vaden admits that two sentences from Popper changed his mind about something Ben had arguing for literally years. But eventually putting those disagreements aside, we return to the subject at hand: The Conjectures and Refutations Series: Chapter 10: Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Part II). Here all goes smoothly. Just kidding, we start fighting about content again almost immediately. Where are the guests to break us up when you need them. We discuss Why Vaden changed his mind about "all thought is problem solving" Something that rhymes with wero horship Is Popper sloppy when it comes to writing about probability and content Is all modern data science based on the wrong idea? (Hint: No) Popper's problem-focused view of scientific progress How much formalization is too much? The difference between high verisimilitude and high probability Why do we value simplicity in science? Historical examples of science progressing via theories with increasing content Quotes Consciousness, world 2, was presumably an evaluating and discerning consciousness, a problem-solving consciousness, right from the start. I have said of the animate part of the physical world 1 that all organisms are problem solvers. My basic assumption regarding world 2 is that this problem-solving activity of the animate part of world 1 resulted in the emergence of world 2, of the world of consciousness. But I do not mean by this that consciousness solves problems all the time, as I asserted of the organisms. On the contrary. The organisms are preoccupied with problem-solving day in, day out, but consciousness is not only concerned with the solving of problems, although that is its most important biological function. My hypothesis is that the original task of consciousness was to anticipate success and failure in problem-solving and to signal to the organism in the form of pleasure and pain whether it was on the right or wrong path to the solution of the problem. In Search of a Better World, p.17 (emphasis added) The criterion of potential satisfactoriness is thus testability, or improbability: only a highly testable or improbable theory is worth testing, and is actually (and not merely potentially) satisfactory if it withstands severe tests—especially those tests to which we could point as crucial for the theory before they were ever undertaken. - C&R, Chapter 10 Consequently there is little merit in formalizing and elaborating a deductive system (intended for use as an empirical science) beyond the requirements of the task of criticizing and testing it, and of comparing it critically with competitors. - C&R, Chapter 10 Admittedly, our expectations, and thus our theories, may precede, historically, even our problems. Yet science starts only with problems. Problems crop up especially when we are disappointed in our expectations, or when our theories involve us in difficulties, in contradictions; and these may arise either within a theory, or between two different theories, or as the result of a clash between our theories and our observations. - C&R, Chapter 10 Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) Is "Ben and Vaden will fight about content" high or low probability? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

News stories are filled with tales of risk and uncertainty. We're told the probable chance of a weather event or how likely it is that we might contract an illness. There's an art to telling stories with uncertainty that provides context and nuance that is often missing. That is the focus of this episode of Stats+Stories with guest David Spiegelhalter. Sir David Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Emeritus Professor at the University of Cambridge, known for his work on risk communication and public understanding of statistics. He is the author of The Art of Statistics, a former President of the Royal Statistical Society, and was knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics. He also presented BBC documentaries and is the founder of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge. Inspiration Behind the Book (1:11) Defining Uncertainty and Its Impact (4:14) Storytelling and Examples in the Book (7:48) Probability and Communication (12:54) Trustworthy Communication (17:34) Application of Trustworthy Communication Principles (19:14) Deep Uncertainty and Imagination (27:42)

You think you're rational? Think again. We love feeling like thoughtful decision-makers, but the truth is we're riddled with cognitive shortcuts. Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize-winning work breaks down the systems of our mind. We constantly substitute hard questions with easy ones; e.g. Buying a stock because you like the company, not because you've done the data. This episode cuts through the 300,000-word book to show you exactly how these shortcuts lead to everything from bad investments to pointless stress about the weather. It's time to stop letting your brain's simple tricks run your whole life. Stop overestimating the importance of your current stress. Identify and reduce low-level daily pains (like a bad commute) for massive life returns. Implement a "sleep-on-it" rule to override System 1's instant commitments. Why let a lazy brain ruin your best decisions? Start thinking slower today. Further Reading: ⁠Thinking Fast and Slow⁠ - Daniel Kahneman ⁠Predictably Irrational⁠ - Dan Ariely SPONSORS

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia's moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs?   MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting Probability of an interest rate cut Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings? Looking at when sentiment was low during good periods of market gains Did Nvidia calm the AI is a bubble trade? Rob Arnott comments around AI vs the internet from Excess Returns   Mentioned in this Episode   Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

What happens when autobattlers fail to monetize? We pull Arto Huhta into the cast and chat about Telegram's pseudo-WeChat ambitions. Eric releases a distrack on Game Designer's obsessed social spaces, and Phil wants more blood from psychologists' nonsensical F2P "choice overload." Chris enleashes a model-meets-UGC experiment: a three-algorithm simulation that shows how recommendation systems distort consumer welfare and creator inequality. We discuss: How Arto sees the split between economy design, product management, and classical economics (hint: it's not what you think) Pets as permanent progression, and the design logic behind Nonstop Knight's monetization turnaround Why creator inequality explodes under bad reinforcement A brewing debate on regulation that is just getting started... Chapters 00:00 Journey to London: A Game Developer's Path 00:49 The Role of Economy Design in Gaming 01:20 From Academia to Game Development: Bridging the Gap 03:16 Experimentation in Game Design: Lessons Learned 05:22 The Intersection of Game Design and Economics 10:07 Understanding Game Development Roles 11:00 Monetization Strategies in Game Design 11:55 The Evolution of Publishing Models 12:42 Transitioning to Web 3: New Challenges 13:54 The Economics of Game Spending 18:27 Introduction to Game Economist Cast 19:06 Current Gaming Trends and Preferences 20:51 Game Modes and Player Engagement 22:03 The Future of Game Monetization 27:33 The Social Hub Experiment in Fighting Games 28:26 Street Fighter VI and Social Interaction 30:28 The Rise of HTML5 Games on Platforms 32:37 The Trend of Casual Games in Tech Companies 34:42 Telegram Games: A New Frontier 37:21 Challenges in Game Discovery on Telegram 38:52 User Engagement and Retention in Web3 Gaming 39:43 Consumer Welfare and Content Creation Dynamics 43:04 The Impact of Algorithms on User Experience 49:31 Heterogeneous Goods and Their Effects on Engagement 57:35 The Impact of Algorithms on Content Quality 59:04 Understanding Algorithmic Risks and User Retention 01:00:16 Exploring Algorithm Design in Gaming Platforms 01:01:54 The Role of User Choice in Content Discovery 01:04:29 The Future of Pricing Strategies in Free-to-Play Games 01:08:10 The Debate on Standardization and Market Forces Chapters (00:00:00) - The Cost of Free Speech(00:00:49) - Game of Connors Cast(00:01:16) - Meet Free-To-Play Designer Phil Rubin(00:02:43) - The Art of Being a Game Economist(00:03:59) - How to Get Out of Your Job(00:05:22) - Are You More of an Economist or a Designer?(00:07:51) - Candy Crush: Experimentation and Optimization(00:10:07) - Ex-Monetization Manager at King Publishing(00:12:30) - Have We Overreacted to Free-To-Play?(00:15:17) - Half-Off and the Price(00:18:27) - How To Make a Slop slideshow(00:18:56) - What Have You Been Playing?(00:20:35) - Clash Royale: The Future of Content(00:23:55) - How To Play Hearthstone With Re-rolling(00:25:59) - 2K XO: A Hardcore Fighting Game(00:29:37) - Fortnite vs. Monster Hunter: The Social Hub(00:30:29) - Are We Ready for Content in the Future?(00:34:24) - Facebook vs Instagram: What's The Difference?(00:34:57) - Telegram's plans for games(00:36:22) - How Telegram Could Make Games More Profitable(00:43:15) - The Probability of Encountering a Good(00:44:28) - Anatomy of Facebook's algorithm(00:49:53) - The Gini coefficient of content creators profit(00:54:30) - Measuring the social network's heterogeneous goods(00:58:58) - The Mix of Algorithms and Churn(01:01:07) - Do Algorithm Designers Care About Producer GENIE?(01:01:55) - What Should Roblox Do About Popularity?(01:03:51) - Too Much Choice in Online Content(01:05:56) - Is There Choice Overload in Mobile Games?(01:06:49) - What about discounts on hard currency purchases?(01:07:46) - Free-To-Play: Quantity Based Discounts(01:11:11) - USB 2.0: Standardization(01:12:11) - Roblox: Arto on UGC(01:13:27) - GIM economist cast episode 44

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 45, 2025 Myself and Simon Gates look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 16th November 2025. YouTube link https://youtu.be/6yYA8-WM0Mo ✅ New Listings * 26.1k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 27.1k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * 9 year week 45 average : 27.6k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.59m new listings, 1.1% higher than 2024 YTD (1.57m) and 8.2% above the 2017–19 average (1.46m) ✅ Price Reductions * 16.7k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 18.5k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!) * 12.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in October. Compared to Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 22.9k homes sold subject to contract this week, up unexpectedly from 22.5k last week. * Week 45 average (for last 9 years) :22.9k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.162m gross sales, which is 3.8% ahead of 2024 (1.119m) and 12.3% above the 2017–19 average (1.034m). * Best week for Resi sales in Inner London since May 2025. 1,658 homes sold stc last week. To compare, 1,293 was the weekly average for Resi sales in October 2025 and the weekly average for the whole year has been 1,403 sale agreed per week ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £387k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £363k - a 6.5% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price was £452k in Sept and £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed. Is that because of the Budget ??? ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 15% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in October. Up from 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,802 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,173. * Fall-through rate: 25.4%, slightly down from 26.5% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 17.1k net sales this week, up unexpectedly from 16.6k last week. * Nine-year Week 45 average: 16.8k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.7k. * YTD: 884k, which is 3.3% ahead of 2024 (856k) and 9.2% above 2017–19 (810k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * October Stats : 53.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in October. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more October stats come in). (93.6k exchanges & 82k withdrawals) * September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 742k homes on the market at the start of November, 2.4% higher than November 2024. (725k) * Notable increases include 9% more homes for sale in London than 12 months ago (9.96% in Inner London & 9.03% in Outer London) & 5.48% in the South East and 5.02% in the South West. The North has seen a drop in homes for sale. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in October - £1,916 pcm - compared to £1,802 in Oct 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in October '25 - 323k compared to 302k in October '24. * Notable increase of 23.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 4.8% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why

Dr. Don and Professor Ben talk about the risks of eating hand sliced Prosciutto ham stored at room temperature for months. Dr. Don - not risky

Stephen Wolfram answers questions from his viewers about the future of science and technology as part of an unscripted livestream series, also available on YouTube here: https://wolfr.am/youtube-sw-qaTopics discussed: How alien life would affect science - Probability and the origins of life - Computation, encoded intelligence and simulated models of civilizations - Alien math class

Matter of Cahuec Tzalam, 29 I&N Dec. 300 (BIA 2025)Special Immigration Juvenile Status; administrative closure; requirement to establish prima facie eligibility; some foreseeable resolution; visa bulletin; 8 C.F.R. § 1003.18(c)(3)  Solis-Flores v. Bondi, No. 22-1147 (4th Cir. Nov. 13, 2025)receipt of stolen property CIMT; VA Code § 18.2-108; realistic probability test; Loper Bright; CIMT definition in the Fourth CircuitKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years. Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Homepage!Demo Link!Get the Guide! Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/ Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerDISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

The ceiling you fear is built from yesterday's beliefs. In today's episode, Kevin and Alan break down the hidden mechanics of capability, identity, and long-term performance. You'll learn why most people misjudge what they can become, how past reps shape future ceilings, and why discomfort and discipline remain the only reliable indicators of growth. Step in, question your ceiling, and let the truth recalibrate your path.Learn more about:

If the phrase "Bayesian calculus" makes you run for the hills, you're not alone! Bayesian logic can sound intimidating at first, but if you give it a little time, you'll understand how useful it can be to evaluate the evidence for design in the natural world. On this ID The Future, Dr. Jonathan McLatchie gives us a beginner's guide to Bayesian thinking and teaches us how it can be used to build a strong cumulative case for intelligent design, as well as how we can use it in our everyday lives. Enjoying the podcast? Leave a written review at Apple Podcasts to help new listeners find the show! Source

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 44, 2025 Myself and Bryan Mansell, boss man of Gazeal, look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 9th November 2025. YouTube link https://youtu.be/ijworHDmx-M ✅ New Listings * 27.1k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 27.5k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * 9 year week 44 average : 28k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.56m new listings, 1.4% higher than 2024 YTD (1.54m) and 8.9% above the 2017–19 average (1.43m) ✅ Price Reductions * 18.5k reductions this week, slightly higher than last week's at 18.3k. * Decrease in the number of homes on the market as 12.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in October. Compared to Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 22.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down as expected from 23.5k last week. * Week 44 average (for last 9 years) :22.7k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.137m gross sales, which is 3.9% ahead of 2024 (1.096m) and 12.5% above the 2017–19 average (1.012m). ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £400k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £362k - a 10.6% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price has dropped from £452k in Sept to £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 15% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in September. Up from 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,975 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,182. * Fall-through rate: 26.5%, slightly up from 24.2% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 16.6k net sales this week, down (as expected) from 18.2k last week. * Nine-year Week 44 average: 16.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.7k. * YTD: 867k, which is 3.4% ahead of 2024 (839k) and 9.4% above 2017–19 (793k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * Initial October Stats : 53.5% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in October. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more October comes in) * September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 742k homes on the market at the start of November, 2.4%% higher than November 2024. (725k) * Notable increases include 9% more homes for sale in London than 12 months ago (9.96% in Inner London & 9.03% in Outer London) & 5.48% in the South East and 5.02% in the South West. The North has seen a drop in homes for sale. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in October - £1,916 pcm - compared to £1,802 in Oct 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in October '25 - 323k compared to 302k in October '24. * Notable increase of 23.8% more rental home sin Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 4.8% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why

Episode Description: It's the holidays, and Max and Molly are ready for two weeks of cookie-eating and cocoa-sipping—until a mysterious package arrives down the chimney. When the gift leads them to a riddle-filled party at Problem Solver HQ – fun Math games turn into accusations including Max making a shocking claim – that a Mole might be among the Problem Solvers! Math Concepts:  Multiplication for calculating time off from school; Probability and odds; Multiples of 3 and 4; Prime number identification; Reinforcement of number theory and divisibility rules.History/Geography Concepts: Ethical reasoning and logic in problem-solving; Historical references to “stooges” and wrongful accusation through time; Probability in games of chance and its real-world implications.

Andrew Jaffe on Models, Probability, and the Universe https://pca.st/2bahs5ob (roda e avisa) aprendam com meu erro https://youtu.be/R_rgdjpiuGc  These Physicists Claim the Universe ISN'T a Simulation https://youtu.be/k6AddqLIbJA?si=Tq9kJzIGSNgWqQ8s Physicists prove the Universe isn't a simulation after all https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251110021052.htm 6 Places with Weird Human Mutations https://youtu.be/-17eLET7GSk?si=K2RNscpnaAsVY8Fg canal do radinho no whatsapp! canal do radinho no telegram:   http://t.me/radinhodepilha ... Read more The post por que preferimos certezas a verdades? o universo é uma simulação? appeared first on radinho de pilha.

Science has an incredibly impressive track record of uncovering nonintuitive ideas about the universe that turn out to be surprisingly accurate. It can be tempting to think of scientific discoveries as being carefully constructed atop a rock-solid foundation. In reality, scientific progress is tentative and fallible. Scientists propose models, assign them probabilities, and run tests to see whether they succeed or fail. In cosmologist Andrew Jaffe's new book, The Random Universe, he illustrates how models and probability help us make sense of the cosmos.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/11/10/335-andrew-jaffe-on-models-probability-and-the-universe/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Andrew Jaffe received his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Chicago. He is currently a professor of astrophysics and cosmology and Director of the Imperial Centre for Inference and Cosmology at Imperial College, London. His research lies at the intersection of theoretical and observational cosmology, including the Planck Surveyor, Euclid, LISA, and Simons Observatory collaborations.Web siteImperial web pageGoogle Scholar publicationsAmazon author pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities. Listen to the podcast to learn more!

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1898

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1917

RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump's tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto's stalling, the shutdown's drag on economic visibility, and the myth of recession-proof secular bull markets.

Send us a textWELCOME TO THE NEWEST EPISODE OF THE DYNASTY DNA DEEP DIVE PODCAST ON THE DYNASTY DNA PODCASTING NETWORK!! This show features the Host of The Dynasty DNA Podcast TJ Blake, Dynasty DNA Team Member Bob Helfert (AKA Big Bob) and Dynasty DNA team member Noah Hutchinson (AKA SLIM)! In this episode the guys talk about mid season player improvement probability? We discuss things such as will the Cardinal QB change unlock Marvin Harrison Jr? We also talk about what does the Jakobi Meyers trade mean for Travis Hunter potentially? Lastly, is Rico Dowdle worth trading a 2026 1st for as a contender! It's a great episode so tune in with us, have a few laughs, and let's get you on your way to dynasty championship in 2025 it all begins because the 2025 season is here and upon us!Join The DNA Strand Crew on Discord Free to Join Just Click This Link!!https://discord.gg/rFAyWzn8Join the DNA Strand Crew on Twitterhttps://mobile.twitter.com/DynastyDNA_Subscribe to The Dynasty DNA YouTube Channel(9) Dynasty DNA Fantasy Football Podcast - YouTubeFollow The DNA Guys On TwitterTJ Blake https://twitter.com/TJBlakeDNABob Helfert Bob Helfert (@BigefatBob) / X

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 43, 2025 Myself and Alice Bullard, boss lady of Nested, look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 2nd October 2025. ✅ New Listings * 27.5k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 29.3k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * Nine year week 43 average :29.1k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.53m new listings, 1.5% higher than 2024 YTD (1.51m) and 9.1% above the 2017–19 average (1.40m) ✅ Price Reductions * 18.3k reductions this week, lower as expected, than last week's at 21.3k. * Increase in the number of homes on the market being reduced in September to 14.1% (these stats are always done a month in arrears). In August, it was 11.1% (everyone must have been on holiday!), whilst it was 14.1% in July and 14% in June. (October figures to follow next week) * 2025 average so far: 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 23.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down as expected from 24.2k last week. * Week 43 average (for last 9 years) :23.8k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.116m gross sales, which is 4.2% ahead of 2024 (1.071m) and 12.5% above the 2017–19 average (992k). ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £398k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £358k - a 11.2% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price has dropped from £452k in Sept to £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 14.1% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in September. (October figures to follow in November) * Down from 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,278 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,181. * Fall-through rate: 24.2%, slightly down from 24.3% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 18.2k net sales this week, down (as expected) from 18.3k last week. * Nine-year Week 43 average: 17.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.8k. * YTD: 850k, which is 3.6% ahead of 2024 (821k) and 9.5% above 2017–19 (776k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * Final September Stats : 53.1% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in September. October ones to follow next week * August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 751k homes on the market at the start of October, 4% higher than October 2024. (723k) * 510k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st October, 2% higher than 12 months ago.

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Chelsea Quinn Yarbro (1942-2025) Tanith Lee (1947-2015) This program honors two master practitioners of horror, fantasy and science fiction, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Tanith Lee, with two interviews back to back. In the first, in 1983, Tanith Lee is interviewed by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro. In the second, in 1979, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro is interviewed by Richard Wolinsky.  Chelsea Quinn Yarbro, who died on August 31, 2025 at the age of 82, was best known for her historical horror novels featuring the vampire the Count Saint.-Germain. Along the way, she wrote in several genres, including science fiction and westerns, and wrote over seventy novels, along with several short stories. Along with her writing, which includes a series of books about a channeler,  titled Messages from Michael, she was a cartographer, palm reader, and composer. In 2009, she received the Bram Stoker Lifetime Achievement Award from the Horror Writers Association. She also wrote novels under several pseudonyms. In this podcast, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro joins Richard A. Lupoff to speak with Tanith Lee. In the second interview, she talks about her vampire hero. Count Saint-Germain, and about writing historical horror fiction. It was recorded shortly after her second San Germain novel, The Palace, was published, which would put it in late 1978 or early 1979..   Tanith Lee, who died of breast cancer in 2015 at the age of 67, also wrote fantasy, science fiction and horror, and her work is considered to be similar and a forerunner of the work of Neil Gaiman. She received a lifetime achievement award from the World Horror Convention in 2013. Nominated for several awards for her novels and short stories, she won the 1980 British Fantasy Award for her novel, Death's Master. In this first undated tnterview from Probabilities, most likely recorded at BayCon in San Jose in November 1983, Tanith Lee is interviewed by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Richard A. Lupoff. This is the only interview conducted by Quinn Yarbro for Probabilities. Tanith Lee's novel set during the French Revolution was eventually retitled The Gods Are Thirsty, and was finally published in 1996. You've been listening to an interview with Tanith Lee, conducted by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program on KPFA. It was digitized, remastered and edited on September 24. 2025. Review of “Stereophonic” at BroadwaySFCurran Theatre through November 23, 2025   Book Interview/Events and Theatre Links Note: Shows may unexpectedly close early or be postponed due to actors' positive COVID tests. Check the venue for closures, ticket refunds, and mask requirements before arrival. Dates are in-theater performances unless otherwise noted. Some venues operate Tuesday – Sunday; others for shorter periods each week. All times Pacific Time. Closing dates are sometimes extended. Book Stores Bay Area Book Festival  See website for highlights from the 110th Annual Bay Area Book Festival, May 31 – June 1, 2025. Book Passage.  Monthly Calendar. Mix of on-line and in-store events. Books Inc.  Mix of on-line and in-store events. The Booksmith.  Monthly Event Calendar. BookShop West Portal. Monthly Event Calendar. Center for Literary Arts, San Jose. See website for Book Club guests in upcoming months. Green Apple Books. Events calendar. Kepler's Books  On-line Refresh the Page program listings. Live Theater Companies Actors Ensemble of Berkeley.  See website for readings and events. Actor's Reading Collective (ARC).  Mary Jane by Amy Herzog, directed by Amy Kossow, November 6 – 30, Magic Theatre, Fort Mason. African American Art & Culture Complex. See website for calendar. American Conservatory Theatre  Stereophonic (in association with BroadwaySF, at the Curran), Oct 28 – Nov 23. Awesome Theatre Company. See website for information. Berkeley Playhouse. Annie. November 7- December 21. Once, February 20 – March 22.  Berkeley Rep. The Hills of California .by Jez Butterworth, Oct. 31 – Dec. 7, Roda Theatre. Mother of Exiles by Jessica Huang, World Premiere, Nov. 14 – Dec. 32, Peets Theatre. Berkeley Shakespeare Company The Tempest, Oct. 24 – Nov. 2,  Immersive theatre. Point Montara Lighthouse. Brava Theatre Center: See calendar for events listings. BroadwaySF: Stereophonic (in association with ACT), Oct 28 – Nov 23, Curran. See website for complete listings for the Orpheum, Golden Gate and Curran Theaters. Broadway San Jose:  Kinky Boots, Nov. 28-30. See website for other events. Center REP: The Woman in Black, U.S. Tour, November 5-23.. Central Stage. See website for upcoming productions, 5221 Central Avenue, Richmond Central Works Dada Teen Musical: The Play by Maury Zeff, Oct. 18 – Nov. 16, Cinnabar Theatre. Young Rep: Disney's The Little Mermaid, November 14-23, Studio Space, Petaluma Outlet Mall. Club Fugazi. Dear San Francisco ongoing. Check website for Music Mondays listings. Contra Costa Civic Theatre Ebenezer Scrooge, an adaptation of “A Christmas Carol” by Joel Roster, December 6 –  21. . See website for other events. Golden Thread  Pilgrimage by Humaira Ghilzal and Bridgette Dutta Portman, a co-production with Z Space, October 24 – November 8, Z Space's Steindler Stage. Hillbarn Theatre: Murder for Two, a musical comedy, October 9 – November 2, 2025. Lorraine Hansberry Theatre. See website for upcoming productions. Los Altos Stage Company. Freaky Friday, The Musical. October 24 – November 2. A Christmas Carol, November  28 – December 21.. Lower Bottom Playaz  August Wilson's King Hedley II, November 8 -30. BAM House, Oakland. Magic Theatre. Actors Reading Collective: Mary Jane by Amy Herzog, directed by Amy Kossow, November 6 – 30, See website for other events and productions. Marin Shakespeare Company: See website for events and productions. Marin Theatre: Sally and Tom by Suzan-Lori Parks. October 30 – November 23. The Lightning Thief, MSC Teen Company, November 7 -9. Mission Cultural Center for Latino Arts Upcoming Events Page. New Conservatory Theatre Center (NCTC)  Spanish Stew by Marga Gomez, October 17 – November 23. New Performance Traditions.  See website for upcoming schedule Oakland Theater Project. Cabaret, November 21 – December 14. Odd Salon: Upcoming events in San Francisco & New York, and streaming. Palace of Fine Arts Theater.  See website for event listings. Pear Theater. Ada & The Engine  by Lauren Gunderson, November 21 – December 7. See website for staged readings and other events. Playful People Productions. Newsies, November 8-16. Presidio Theatre. Peter Pan Panto, Nov. 29 – Dec. 28. See website for complete schedule of events and performances. Ray of Light: The Rocky Horror Show. October 9 – November 1, The Oasis. Ross Valley Players: See website for New Works Sunday night readings and other events. San Francisco Playhouse. Noises Off by Michael Frayn. September 25 – November 8. SFBATCO.  See website for upcoming streaming and in- theater shows. San Jose Stage Company: See website for events and upcoming season Shotgun Players.  Sunday in the Park with George, November 15 – December 30. South Bay Musical Theatre:  Let It Snow: A Broadway Holiday Celebration, December 20-21, Little Women, The Broadway Musical, January 24 – February 14, 2026. SPARC: See website for upcoming events. Stagebridge: See website for events and productions. Storytime every 4th Saturday. The Breath Project. Streaming archive. The Marsh: Calendar listings for Berkeley, San Francisco and Marshstream. Theatre Lunatico Frankenstein, October 11 – November 2. Theatre Rhino  The Break-Up written and performed by Tina D'Elia, November 6-23. Streaming: Essential Services Project, conceived and performed by John Fisher, all weekly performances now available on demand. TheatreWorks Silicon Valley. A Driving Beat by Jordan Ramirez Puckett, Oct 29 – Nov. 23, . Mountain View Center for the Performing Arts Second Stage.Georgiana & Kitty, Christmas at Pemberley by Lauren Gunderson and Margot Melcon, Dec. 3 – 28, Lucie Stern Theatre. Word for Word.  See website for upcoming productions. Misc. Listings: BAMPFA: On View calendar for Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive. Berkeley Symphony: See website for listings. Chamber Music San Francisco: Calendar, 2025 Season. Dance Mission Theatre. On stage events calendar. Fort Mason Center. Events calendar. Oregon Shakespeare Festival: Calendar listings and upcoming shows. San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus. See schedule for upcoming SFGMC performances. San Francisco Opera. Calendar listings. San Francisco Symphony. Calendar listings. Filmed Live Musicals: Searchable database of all filmed live musicals, podcast, blog. If you'd like to add your bookstore or theater venue to this list, please write Richard@kpfa.org   The post November 6, 2025: Tanith Lee & Chelsea Quinn Yabro, Virtuosos of Horror and Fantasy appeared first on KPFA.

Clinical psychologist and author Dr. Diana Hill joins Gabby to explore how to channel your energy with intention and align your strengths for greater clarity and purpose. While discussing her new book Wise Effort, she explains to Gabby and the audience that each of us has a “genius” that we haven't yet tapped into. Drawing on mindfulness and behavioral science, Diana shares how to move from striving to wise effort by knowing when to push, when to pause, and how to focus your time on what truly matters. Together they discuss self compassion, discipline and how to cultivate balance while pursuing meaningful goals. Dr. Diana Hill Instagram https://www.instagram.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Facebook https://www.facebook.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdianahill/  Dr. Diana Hill Website https://drdianahill.com/ Thank You to Our Sponsors Timeline - My friends at Timeline are offering 20% off, just for my listeners. Head to timeline.com/gabby to get started. Ritual - Get 25% off your first month at ritual.com/GABBY Get 10% off TUSHY with the code GABBY10 at https://hellotushy.com/GABBY10 For more on Gabby Instagram @GabbyReece: https://www.instagram.com/gabbyreece/ TikTok @GabbyReeceOfficial https://www.tiktok.com/@gabbyreeceofficial The Gabby Reece Show Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GabbyReece  The Gabby Reece Show podcast is produced by Rainbow Creative (https://www.rainbowcreative.co/)  Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Today's Message 00:26 Guest Introduction: Diana Hill 00:48 Sponsor Message: Timeline Longevity Gummies 02:57 Diana Hill's New Book: Wise Effort 05:46 Diana's Personal Journey and Struggles 06:34 The Myth of Persephone and Personal Genius 08:05 Understanding and Managing Personal Traits 12:08 The Role of Supportive Relationships 14:08 Finding Balance and Self-Acceptance 34:47 Curiosity and Its Importance 37:44 Navigating Grief with Curiosity 39:06 The Rise of Openness in Psychology 40:42 The Tushy Bidet Experience 42:48 Understanding Wise Effort 50:51 Compassion vs. Empathy 58:32 Possibility vs. Probability 01:04:11 Final Thoughts and Reflections Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I believe the difference between living within limits and unlocking your true potential comes down to one thing: mindset. In this video, I explore the intersection of probability and possibility, showing how your perspective can shift what feels impossible into achievable results. You'll discover practical strategies to overcome fear, build confidence, and create positive habits that support personal growth and success.From real-life stories of resilience to proven mindset coaching strategies, I'll share how you can reprogram limiting beliefs and start living with purpose and intention. Too often, we live inside probabilities, statistics that keep us safe, but the real breakthroughs come when we embrace possibilities. If you're ready for personal transformation, confidence building, and a mindset reset, this episode will help you step into your full potential.Whether you're focused on career growth, self-discipline, or simply becoming your best self, these lessons will help you unlock the resilience and clarity needed to succeed. Remember, probabilities may keep you comfortable, but possibilities are where growth and fulfillment live. Watch until the end for mindset strategies you can apply today to elevate your personal and professional life.Key Takeaways ✅ Possibility begins where probability ends ✅ Most people stay stuck in limits that don't exist ✅ A bold mindset opens doors to healing, growth, and success ✅ Personal stories can ignite massive inner change ✅ Resilience is a choice, not a trait ✅ Growth means rejecting the status quo ✅ Believing in yourself is the foundation of possibility ✅ Your life can exceed logic when you shift your mindset

We talk about Xmen 97   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

Kyle Austin Young is an award-winning strategy consultant for high achievers, entrepreneurs, and leaders in a wide range of fields joins Enterprise Radio. Listen … Read more The post Probability Hack to Better Your Odds of Start-Up Success with Kyle Austin Young appeared first on Top Entrepreneurs Podcast | Enterprise Podcast Network.

What if the only thing standing between where you are and where you could be is leadership? In today's bold and honest episode, Kevin and Alan break down the real difference between what's possible and what's probable, explaining why most people never bridge that gap. They challenge the myth that everyone's “doing their best” while revealing how effort, principle, and accountability shape real success. This isn't feel-good talk; it's a wake-up call to rise higher and lead yourself first. Stop guessing what you're capable of. Press play and find out.Episode Reference:Business Growth University - High Performers vs. Wannabes: The Mindset That Separates the Top 1% with Lauren Johnson (EP18) -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBUmR2RkpO8Learn more about:

Episode Description: When Charlene mysteriously vanishes “to Oz,” Max and Molly follow her back to 1876 Melbourne, Australia—just in time for a famous horse raise known as The Melbourne Cup. There, they meet 11-year-old jockey Peter St. Albans and his horse Briseis. As they calculate odds, distances, and speed, the trio learns a timeless lesson about choices, consequences, and doing what's right. Math Concepts: Understanding odds and probability (24 to 1 betting odds mean a $1 bet wins $24); Probability of winning; Unit conversions and measurement: Proportional reasoning and rate; Basic multiplication and addition.History/Geography Concepts:  The Melbourne Cup (Australia's major horse-racing event, first held in 1861); Historic jockey Peter St. Albans (Michael Bowden), the youngest to win the Melbourne Cup.

If we treat the universe as being filled with some kind of elastic solid, can we get any closer to understanding the nature of light and gravity as the product of physical processes, or is there still some deeper principle that needs to be uncovered before we can develop a unified theory of the universe? We dig into mass, light, electricity, and magnetism in context of the elastic Ether with Dr. Chantal Roth.PATREON https://www.patreon.com/c/demystifysciPARADIGM DRIFThttps://demystifysci.com/paradigm-drift-showHOMEBREW MUSIC - Check out our new album!Hard Copies (Vinyl): FREE SHIPPING https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/products/vinyl-lp-secretary-of-nature-everything-is-so-good-hereStreaming:https://secretaryofnature.bandcamp.com/album/everything-is-so-good-here00:00:00 Introduction to the Podcast & Elastic Ether00:03:15 Mass as Stored Elastic Energy00:10:03 Solitons in a Vibratory Universe00:12:52 Light & Electromagnetism as Elastic Deformations00:19:01 Mechanical Mapping of EM Theory00:19:56 Overview of Charge00:21:57 Charge as Atomic Interactions00:24:45 Battery Function & Charge Transfer00:27:41 Conceptual Models of Charge00:33:20 Spin-1/2 and Charge00:38:21 Atoms & Wave Behavior00:40:38 Atomic Structure via Vibrations00:44:46 Electrons & Quantum Transitions00:47:30 “Golden Rule” & Resonance00:51:00 Probability & Nature of Light Emission00:57:14 Space Expansion: Implications for Light & Matter01:00:16 Space Expansion & Doppler Effect01:03:03 Understanding Electromagnetic Waves01:06:01 Challenges in Physics Conversations01:09:20 Computational Thinking in Physics#electromagnetism , #quantumreality , #mechanicalmodels , #unifiedtheory , #spin , #maxwellequations , #theoreticalphysics , #cosmicexpansion , #atomicstructure , #newphysics MERCH: Rock some DemystifySci gear : https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/AMAZON: Do your shopping through this link: https://amzn.to/3YyoT98DONATE: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaDSUBSTACK: https://substack.com/@UCqV4_7i9h1_V7hY48eZZSLw@demystifysci RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rssMAILING LIST: https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/- Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySciMUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671

When someone asks you about the average rate of return for indexed universal life insurance, you'll discover that average is actually a meaningless number. You need to understand the probability of hitting specific rates of return to make accurate projections about what might happen with your IUL policy. In this episode, we analyze 40 years of S&P 500 data using rolling periods from 1930 through 2024 to determine real probability outcomes for IUL policies. You'll learn how different cap rates, floor rates, participation rates, and spreads affect your expected returns. We examine scenarios ranging from 10.5% to 11.5% cap rates with various floor options to show you the trade-offs between guaranteed minimums and upside potential. You'll discover that removing floors in favor of higher caps generally produces better results, with probabilities showing an 86% chance of 7% net returns under certain conditions. We also explore newer IUL structures using participation rates and spreads rather than caps, revealing that 70% participation rates can deliver a 96% probability of 9% returns over 40 years. The analysis includes net rate of return calculations that account for fees, not just index credits. You'll understand why IUL serves as an enhanced fixed savings strategy rather than true market exposure. We compare these results to actual S&P 500 performance and explain how IUL can function as a de-risking component in your portfolio. _____________________ Ready to explore how IUL might fit into your financial strategy? Contact us to discuss your specific situation and learn more about indexed universal life insurance options.

Seattle is about to elect a 43-year-old mayoral candidate whose biggest qualifications are taking thousands from her parents to survive and busking with a guitar at Pike Place Market. Katie Wilson - a Democratic Socialist who's never held a job for more than a year or run a business - is leading in the polls to manage a $9 billion city budget. What could go wrong?We break down how this political train wreck mirrors the same pattern destroying cities nationwide: progressive activists with zero real-world experience pushing out businesses with their "tax the rich" fantasies while creating government-run grocery stores and alternatives to police. Meanwhile, Amazon fled Seattle for Bellevue, and kids can't afford housing because of layers of bureaucratic nonsense.Is this Seattle's "find out" moment after decades of voting for feel-good policies that drive up costs and crime? Will Gen Z voters learn what happens when you elect someone who can't even manage her own finances to run a major city? The popcorn is ready - this socialist experiment is about to deliver reality's harshest lesson yet.

Takeaways @josuevizcay We're 101 wins 50 losses 67% at minus 105 juice betting $1,000 a game. That's $45,000 profit. If we prove our performance 10 to 20%, we're talking 70%. We're getting close to 80%, which is the highest level of probability. The highest level of probability you can do in anything is 80%. Any sports betting podcast that says, hey, there's a stone cold lead pipe lock, that's bullshit. We're getting close to that, and that is where we want to be now in the million dollar contest. Understanding betting performance metrics is crucial for success. Realistic expectations in betting can lead to better decision-making. Probabilities in sports betting are often misunderstood by the public.

Dr. Emily Adlam is a philosopher of quantum physics who has just finished a book about the strangest feature of fundamental physics - the perennial confusion over what it means to make a measurement. We all know that quantum physics tells us that there's this strange thing, called wavefunction collapse, which transitions a system from being in a quantum state into being in a classical state. But what does it mean to make a measurement? And what does it mean to turn a system from a quantum one into a classical one? It turns out that no one really knows, and we spend this conversation trying to figure out how that could be possible, after more than a century of theorizing about the foundations of reality. PATREON https://www.patreon.com/c/demystifysciPARADIGM DRIFThttps://demystifysci.com/paradigm-drift-showHOMEBREW MUSIC - Check out our new album!Hard Copies (Vinyl): FREE SHIPPING https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/products/vinyl-lp-secretary-of-nature-everything-is-so-good-hereStreaming:https://secretaryofnature.bandcamp.com/album/everything-is-so-good-here00:00 Go! 00:04:30 Understanding the Measurement Problem 00:08:00 The Nature of Quantum Formalisms 00:11:30 Critiques of Many-Worlds Interpretation 00:17:00 The Many-Worlds Perspective and Its Popularity 00:20:41 Discussion on the Many Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics 00:21:39 Criticism of the Many Worlds Interpretation 00:23:41 Observer Dependent Interpretations in Quantum Mechanics 00:28:14 Implications of Quantum Interpretations 00:31:45 Primitive Ontology Interpretations 00:36:07 Challenges of Quantum Field Theory 00:41:27 Discussion on Quantum Measurement 00:44:12 Transactional Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics 00:48:58 Observational Limits in Quantum Physics 00:56:09 Challenges of Understanding Quantum Reality 01:02:20 Philosophical Implications of Quantum Mechanics 01:03:16 Discussion on Causality and Probability 01:09:05 Probabilistic Features of Nature 01:12:54 Mathematical vs. Visual Intuition in Quantum Mechanics 01:17:49 Relationship Between Quantum Phenomena and Macroscopic Effects 01:19:20 Proposed Revision to Quantum Epistemology 01:25:03 Exploration of Quantum Concepts 01:27:34 The Nature of Reality in Quantum Mechanics 01:30:12 Experimental vs. Theoretical Physics 01:34:22 Challenges in Testing Quantum Mechanics 01:36:19 Evolution of Epistemology in Quantum Physics 01:40:42 Implications for Broader Inquiry 01:44:37 Fundamental Questions on Mass and Gravity 01:47:03 The Interface of Relativity and Quantum Mechanics 01:48:27 Emergence and Relational Descriptions in Physics 01:49:55 Theoretical Physics Versus Experimental Collaboration 01:50:52 Resilience in Quantum Physics Understanding#quantumphysics, #philosophy, #metaphysics, #quantummechanics, #causality, #epistemology, #relativity, #cosmos, #consciousness, #paradigmshift , #rationality, #intellectual #philosophypodcast , #longformpodcastMERCH: Rock some DemystifySci gear : https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/AMAZON: Do your shopping through this link: https://amzn.to/3YyoT98DONATE: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaDSUBSTACK: https://substack.com/@UCqV4_7i9h1_V7hY48eZZSLw@demystifysci RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rssMAILING LIST: https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/- Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySciMUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671

0:00 - Adam Schefter joined us this morning and rattled off some numbers that demonstrate just how improbably Denver's win over the Giants was yesterday.19:18 - Yesterday's Broncos win was a Rorschach Test. You can look at that game and have whatever takeaway you want, and you're right. Did you love the game? Did you hate the game? Did you feel all the emotions? No matter what you thought, you're right. 34:00 - For every game, ESPN has their "win probability" chart that changes throughout the game and shows the, you guessed it, probability that either team will win. The chart was INSANE during the 4th quarter of the Broncos game yesterday. It jumped around all over the place, and the odds were never in Denver's favor...until they won. 

In this episode, Geoff discusses the importance of understanding probabilities when calling coyotes and how it affects many aspects from land access, setups, time on stand, volume & sound selections. Hornady: https://bit.ly/Hornady-Eastmans Kryptek: https://bit.ly/Kryptek-Eastmans Lucky Duck Predator Calls: https://bit.ly/LuckyDuck-Eastmans onX hunt: https://bit.ly/onXHunt-Eastmans SigSauer: https://bit.ly/SIGSAUER-Eastmans Silencer Central: https://bit.ly/SilencerCentral-Eastmans

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3318: Darrow Kirkpatrick unpacks the real distinction in retirement income strategies, not between risk and safety, but between who manages the risk, you or an insurance company. He argues for a flexible, hybrid approach that evolves over time, matching both your temperament and life circumstances, rather than locking into an all-or-nothing decision early on. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/are-you-feeling-lucky-the-two-schools-of-retirement-income/ Quotes to ponder: “‘Probability-based' and ‘safety-first' label the extremes in retirement planning.” “The real distinction is whether (market and longevity) risk is transferred or retained, and if retained how those risks are managed or avoided.” “Once you buy an annuity, you own that decision for life.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cognitive scientist and author Donald Hoffman returns to share discoveries reshaping how we understand perception, consciousness, and reality itself. Drawing from evolutionary game theory and quantum physics, he reveals why we don't see the world as it truly is—and what that means for science, spirituality, and awareness. Hoffman bridges rigorous mathematics with timeless wisdom, showing how awakening to truth means seeing through the interface of perception to what lies beyond.15% off Bon Charge order (Code KNOWTHYSELF):https://boncharge.com/knowthyselfUp to 43% off MUDWTR order + free frother:https://mudwtr.com/knowthyselfTo get your free shilajit today:https://fractalforest.co/knowthyselfAndrés Book Recs: https://www.knowthyselfpodcast.com/book-list___________00:00 Intro03:45 The Probability of Seeing the Truth10:20 Fitness vs. Truth in Evolutionary Theory17:30 The Limits of Our Perception24:15 How Language Shapes Reality31:10 States of Consciousness and Altered Perception38:50 The Virtual Headset of Space and Time42:04 Ad: Bon Charge46:35 Physics Agrees: Spacetime Is Doomed54:25 The Mystery of the Observer1:02:10 No Theory of Everything1:10:40 Consciousness vs. Physicalism1:19:15 Neural Correlates and the Illusion of Causation1:27:45 The Case for Consciousness as Fundamental1:29:38 Ads: MUDWTR, Fractal Forest1:36:20 From Science to Spirituality1:45:10 Introducing Markov Chains1:53:30 The Birth of Trace Logic2:04:20 Time Dilation and the Mathematics of Perception2:18:10 Beyond the Headset: Infinite Consciousness2:36:30 Science, Mystery, and Humility2:54:40 Conclusion___________Episode Resources: https://x.com/donalddhoffmanhttps://www.amazon.com/The-Case-Against-Reality/dp/0141983418/https://www.instagram.com/andreduqum/https://www.instagram.com/knowthyself/https://www.youtube.com/@knowthyselfpodcasthttps://www.knowthyselfpodcast.com

It's not hard to get birders talking about some of the big questions in our hobby. And this time we go back in the archives of Birding magazine to collect some historic hot takes for another edition of Take It or Leave It, the discussion panel for the most opinionated birders. This time we welcome Tim Healy and Martha Harbison to talk about Trumpeter Swan introductions, the proper plural of binoculars, and whether the internet was a good thing for birders.  Also, don't forget to bid on some great original bird art from our Bird of the Year program.  Subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts and please leave a rating or a review if you are so inclined! We appreciate it!  

Angus Fletcher has a PhD in literature from Yale and teaches English at Ohio State. He's passionate about Shakespeare. He probably owns a tweed jacket. In other words, he's the last person you'd expect to receive the Army's fourth-highest civilian honor. But when he's not parsing King Lear or dissecting Hamlet, Angus is pioneering research into narrative cognition — our ability to think in stories — and how it can make us smarter. When the Army put his theories to the test, his methods reshaped how soldiers learn to think clearly under pressure and act decisively in volatile environments. Now, he has distilled this work into a new book called Primal Intelligence. Malcolm Gladwell says it's confirmation that Angus "has never had an uninteresting thought." We think you'll agree. — — — (04:21) What is Primal Intelligence? (8:24) Computers Think in Probabilities. Humans Think in Possibilities. (11:08) The Art of Intuition: Spotting Exceptions to Rules (29:59) Why Storytelling is the Essence of Human Intelligence (34:13) How to Plan (35:38) The Role of Emotion in Decision Making (45:27) How to Use Common Sense to ‘Tune Your Anxiety' (49:34) What Great Innovators Have in Common (51:25) The Best Way to Become a Better Communicator (54:22) Don't Freak Out About A.I. Do Freak Out the State of Your Intelligence. — — — Want to connect?