Podcasts about Probability

Branch of mathematics concerning chance and uncertainty

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Best podcasts about Probability

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Latest podcast episodes about Probability

Joni and Friends Radio
Every Prophecy Fulfilled

Joni and Friends Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 4:00


Every Old Testament prophecy finds its fulfillment in Jesus Christ. He is the promised Messiah! Yesterday was Giving Tuesday and it's not too late to be a voice for those who cannot speak for themselves! Donate to Joni and Friends make a difference where Christ's love is needed the most. View the Perfect Gift Catalog ---Looking for more encouragement?  Follow Joni on Facebook and subscribe to her daily devotional. Listen to all of Joni's 4-minute and 1-minute programs at  joniradio.org!Joni and Friends envisions a world where every person with a disability finds hope, dignity, and their place in the body of Christ. Get involved at joniandfriends.org or on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

Beyond Markets
The week in markets: the probability of a recession

Beyond Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 14:05


In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, talks about recent comments by some voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that rates will need to stay high into 2024, the outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Philadelphia Fed's survey of professional forecasters showing the probability of a recession over the next 12 months, at 43%, the conundrums Arthur Burns faced when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1970 to 1978, the difficulties China is facing in adjusting its zero-Covid policy, and a very rare signal that suggests the Hong Kong stock market could be on the cusp of a bull market and more.

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - November 28, 2022 - The Power Of Conditional Probability

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 20:04


As premium sellers, we constantly update our probabilities, conditional on the new information that has come in. This gives us an opportunity to reduce overall risk, widen break-even points, and trim directional exposure - all because of the flexibility given by a consistent emphasis on conditional probabilities.

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - November 28, 2022 - The Power Of Conditional Probability

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 19:13


As premium sellers, we constantly update our probabilities, conditional on the new information that has come in. This gives us an opportunity to reduce overall risk, widen break-even points, and trim directional exposure - all because of the flexibility given by a consistent emphasis on conditional probabilities.

Being Well with Dr. Rick Hanson
How to Understand Anxiety and See Threats Clearly

Being Well with Dr. Rick Hanson

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 42:04


We're living in an anxious time, and part of the reason we're anxious is because there are very real challenges we face both individually and collectively. But we're also affected by the natural tendencies of the brain, which is easily influenced by fear and threat. On this episode of Being Well, Dr. Rick and Forrest Hanson focus on how we can see threats clearly and be the “right amount” of concerned. Watch the Episode: Prefer watching video? You can watch this episode on YouTube.Key Topics:0:00: Introduction1:20: Why is it hard for us to see threats without excessive worry?3:35: Transcending evolutionary influences toward fear6:30: The last time Rick took LSD10:45: Discerning what's valuable in our anxieties, and leaving the rest15:45: Forrest's apartment fire story17:35: Disagreements in evaluating a threat between people21:55: Probability of risk25:00: Practical techniques to assess threats with more clarity29:30: Existential acceptance33:30: Help for anxiety about anxiety37:15: RecapSponsors:Wondrium helps you learn anything! Right now, Wondrium is offering our listeners 50% OFF their first three months. Sign up today at wondrium.com/beingwell.Being Well is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/beingwell for 10% off your first month!Want to sleep better? Try the Calm app! Visit calm.com/beingwell for 40% off a premium subscription.MDbio is a plant-based medicine company with natural products that address sleep, anxiety, pain, and immunity. Get your FREE 10-count sample pack by going to mdbiowellness.com and entering the promo code BEINGWELL at checkout! Connect with the show:Subscribe on iTunesFollow Forrest on YouTubeFollow us on InstagramFollow Forrest on InstagramFollow Rick on FacebookFollow Forrest on FacebookVisit Forrest's website

StarMints
Probability and Uncertainty

StarMints

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2022 37:25


Uncertain about this episode? We are too! What's the probability of you tuning in to listen to Anthony and Kristen talk about the fascinating mathematics and quantum spookiness of these theories? Our calculation show a 100% chance of success. Check out our Merch: https://starmints.live  

The Blue Collar Investor
92. Selling Deep OTM Cash-Secured Puts to Create High-Probability Returns

The Blue Collar Investor

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2022 12:25


Using weekly deep out-of-the-money cash-secured puts with Deltas of less than 10 can generate significant annualized returns with greater than 90% probability of success. This podcast uses a real-life example from one of Alan's portfolios with Apple Computer that incorporates both initial structuring and exit strategy implementation. BCI Package, our Best and most Comprehensive Investment package: https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/minimembership/bci-investor-program/ BECOME A BCI MEMBER TODAY: https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/membership/ SEE BCI COURSE & PRODUCTS : https://thebluecollarinvestor.com/store/ STOCKS,TRADING,STOCK MARKET,COVERED CALLS,covered call writing,Axsome,Therapeutics,Ellman Calculator,gap-up,cost-to-close,implied volatility,Alpha,Beta,seeking,alpha,cost-basis,time-value,intrinsic- value,put-selling,collar calculator,put calculator,stock option,facebook stock,amazon stock,investing,options,Option,option buyer,strike price,in the money,in the money coverd call,out of the money covered call,covered call writing exit strategies

The tastytrade network
Market Measures - November 21, 2022 - Probability of Consecutive Profits

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2022 8:59


Because short premium trades tend to be high POP trades by default, consecutive profits are far more likely than consecutive losses. When consecutive negative P/Ls occur, the average P/L tended to be twice as large in magnitude as an average profitable trade. A long streak of consecutive losses, although unlikely, was coupled with larger than average negative P/Ls.

The tastytrade network
Market Measures - November 21, 2022 - Probability of Consecutive Profits

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2022 8:08


Because short premium trades tend to be high POP trades by default, consecutive profits are far more likely than consecutive losses. When consecutive negative P/Ls occur, the average P/L tended to be twice as large in magnitude as an average profitable trade. A long streak of consecutive losses, although unlikely, was coupled with larger than average negative P/Ls.

Top Traders Unplugged
SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2022 70:20


Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.--------Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:52 - What happened this week?07:22 - Q1, Dave: What's up with the inverted yield curve? 11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem's opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?14:21 - Q3, John: Cem's forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?18:39 - Q6, Spek: What's the SP500 potential bottom?22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?46:51 - The impact of low skew57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to...

So Money with Farnoosh Torabi
1433: Probability v Possibility. The Hard Truths About Racial Inequality with Rendel Solomon

So Money with Farnoosh Torabi

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2022 31:40


Rendel Solomon is a recovering engineer, reformed private equity investor, and an aspiring anti-capitalist, dedicated to spreading financial literacy and the importance of investing to Black youth in America. We discuss his upbringing, raised on the Westside of Chicago, and how his family, schooling and career in private equity led him to his work today focusing on addressing systemic pressures that hold Black Americans back from achieving wealth and career success. Be sure to watch Rendel's TEDx talk entitled "Sharecropper to Shareholder." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Troubled Minds Radio
The Gray Goo Disaster - A Low Probability High Impact Event

Troubled Minds Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2022 150:00


Life marches on, skirting a daily disaster like we're on some predestined course to somewhere important. What happens when something goes awry on the way to paradise?http://www.troubledminds.org Support The Show! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/troubledminds https://rokfin.com/creator/troubledminds https://troubledfans.com https://patreon.com/troubledminds#aliens #conspiracy #paranormalRadio Schedule Mon-Tues-Wed-Thurs 7-9pst - https://fringe.fm/iTunes - https://apple.co/2zZ4hx6Spotify - https://spoti.fi/2UgyzqMStitcher - https://bit.ly/2UfAiMXTuneIn - https://bit.ly/2FZOErSTwitter - https://bit.ly/2CYB71UFollow Algo Rhythm -- https://bit.ly/3uq7yRYFollow Apoc -- https://bit.ly/3DRCUEjFollow Ash -- https://bit.ly/3CUTe4ZFollow Daryl -- https://bit.ly/3GHyIaNFollow James -- https://bit.ly/3kSiTEYFollow Jennifer -- https://bit.ly/3BVLyCMFollow Joseph -- https://bit.ly/3pNjbzb Matt's Book -- https://amzn.to/3fqmRWgFollow Nightstocker -- https://bit.ly/3mFGGtxRobert's Book -- https://amzn.to/3GEsFUKFollow TamBam -- https://bit.ly/3LIQkFw--------------------------------------------------https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-wants-robots-to-write-their-own-python-code/https://www.hackster.io/news/google-s-roboticists-let-robots-write-their-own-code-vastly-boosting-their-flexibility-074969d282d3https://electrek.co/2022/11/03/tesla-bot-humanoid-robots-150-billion-business-goldman-sachs/https://electrek.co/2022/10/31/tesla-bot-strength-lifting-piano/https://www.universetoday.com/156730/well-be-building-self-replicating-probes-to-explore-the-milky-way-sooner-than-you-think-why-havent-etis/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skynet_(Terminator)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machinehttps://medium.com/swlh/self-replicating-computer-programs-8136bbbacc60https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/29/americas/xenobots-self-replicating-robots-scn/index.htmlhttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150728110720.htmhttps://www.cantorsparadise.com/neural-quine-is-self-replicating-ai-real-edcdaaf0dc34https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goohttps://www.britannica.com/technology/grey-goohttps://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/grey-goohttps://science.howstuffworks.com/gray-goo.htmhttps://www.proxxi.co/blog/low-probability-high-impact-risks

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - November 7, 2022 - Subjective Utility Functions

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2022 17:36


One of the best things in the market is the objective nature of the markets. Specifically, Implied Volatilities, Expected Moves, and Probabilities all objectively lay out the statistical facts of a given scenario. But still, two different people can come to two very different conclusions, neither of which is better or worse than the other, but instead based largely on the utility function that is driving their decisions.Did you catch our recently on how to determine Delta/Theta levels for your portfolio?

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - November 7, 2022 - Subjective Utility Functions

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2022 16:45


One of the best things in the market is the objective nature of the markets. Specifically, Implied Volatilities, Expected Moves, and Probabilities all objectively lay out the statistical facts of a given scenario. But still, two different people can come to two very different conclusions, neither of which is better or worse than the other, but instead based largely on the utility function that is driving their decisions.Did you catch our recently on how to determine Delta/Theta levels for your portfolio?

The WeatherJazz® Podcast
Season 3 - Episode #003: Probability Of Precipitation

The WeatherJazz® Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2022 17:25


You see it every night on the FOX 8 8-Day Outlook, but just exactly what is probability of precipitation? Scott Sabol joins me to talk about one of the helpful numbers on the 8-Day outlook.

Searching for Grog
The Fukami Probability Wave

Searching for Grog

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2022 33:04


The boys celebrate Andrew's birthday in true "Searching for Grog" style with M.Bison and Rhinox. Adam gets a surprising email from composer Kenichiro Fukui, and the boys employ the classic search and destroy algorithm.

SteadyPicks Radio Network - Sports Betting Shows
Wake Up and Wager - Thinking in Probabilities, NFL Week 9 Bets, and Tennis Plays!

SteadyPicks Radio Network - Sports Betting Shows

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2022 29:52


Special Sportsbook Offers for SteadyPicks Podcast Listeners : https://www.steadypicks.com/sportsbook-offers BETMGM : $1,000 Risk Free Bet! : BetRivers : $250 Deposit Match! : Must be 21+ - Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER YouTube : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLlMH3XkYUviUkkSJpwWX7w Twitter : @GetSteadyPicks Tom on Twitter : @SteadyPicks_Tom

Math Mutation
Math Mutation 281: Pascal vs Mathematics

Math Mutation

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2022 4:42


Discussing the final decade of Blaise Pascal's life, when he decided math and physics were unworthy of study. (Send feeback to erik@mathmutation.com)

80,000 Hours Podcast with Rob Wiblin
#139 — Alan Hájek on puzzles and paradoxes in probability and expected value

80,000 Hours Podcast with Rob Wiblin

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2022 218:25 Very Popular


A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play? The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value' — in which you multiply probabilities by the value of each outcome and then sum them up — says your expected earnings are infinite. You have a 50% chance of winning $2, for '0.5 * $2 = $1' in expected earnings. A 25% chance of winning $4, for '0.25 * $4 = $1' in expected earnings, and on and on. A never-ending series of $1s added together comes to infinity. And that's despite the fact that you know with certainty you can only ever win a finite amount! Today's guest — philosopher Alan Hájek of the Australian National University — thinks of much of philosophy as “the demolition of common sense followed by damage control” and is an expert on paradoxes related to probability and decision-making rules like “maximise expected value.” Links to learn more, summary and full transcript. The problem described above, known as the St. Petersburg paradox, has been a staple of the field since the 18th century, with many proposed solutions. In the interview, Alan explains how very natural attempts to resolve the paradox — such as factoring in the low likelihood that the casino can pay out very large sums, or the fact that money becomes less and less valuable the more of it you already have — fail to work as hoped. We might reject the setup as a hypothetical that could never exist in the real world, and therefore of mere intellectual curiosity. But Alan doesn't find that objection persuasive. If expected value fails in extreme cases, that should make us worry that something could be rotten at the heart of the standard procedure we use to make decisions in government, business, and nonprofits. These issues regularly show up in 80,000 Hours' efforts to try to find the best ways to improve the world, as the best approach will arguably involve long-shot attempts to do very large amounts of good. Consider which is better: saving one life for sure, or three lives with 50% probability? Expected value says the second, which will probably strike you as reasonable enough. But what if we repeat this process and evaluate the chance to save nine lives with 25% probability, or 27 lives with 12.5% probability, or after 17 more iterations, 3,486,784,401 lives with a 0.00000009% chance. Expected value says this final offer is better than the others — 1,000 times better, in fact. Ultimately Alan leans towards the view that our best choice is to “bite the bullet” and stick with expected value, even with its sometimes counterintuitive implications. Where we want to do damage control, we're better off looking for ways our probability estimates might be wrong. In today's conversation, Alan and Rob explore these issues and many others: • Simple rules of thumb for having philosophical insights • A key flaw that hid in Pascal's wager from the very beginning • Whether we have to simply ignore infinities because they mess everything up • What fundamentally is 'probability'? • Some of the many reasons 'frequentism' doesn't work as an account of probability • Why the standard account of counterfactuals in philosophy is deeply flawed • And why counterfactuals present a fatal problem for one sort of consequentialism Get this episode by subscribing to our podcast on the world's most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80,000 Hours' into your podcasting app. Producer: Keiran Harris Audio mastering: Ben Cordell and Ryan Kessler Transcriptions: Katy Moore

Funny Business
132: The Probability of Lettuce

Funny Business

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2022 46:03


This week, Mike and Matt talk about a man who has found a dream job of doing "nothing" and another edition of "Take It!" and "Down In The Dumps." Share and cross-promote your links, music, videos, social media, and more on one page with Solo.To Today: https://solo.to/inv/Mzc0NzQ Go to https://anchor.fm to get started on your podcast today! MERCH: https://store.streamelements.com/funnybusinessen FOLLOW US Solo.To: https://solo.to/funnybusiness Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/funnybusinessentertainment Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/funnybusinessentertainment/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/funnybusinessen Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/funnybusinessen YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwA7LU4-jps613RuewhWWDg/featured FUNNY BUSINESS Funny Business Entertainment brings professional digital entertainment while having fun. Funny Business has an established weekly podcast and social content on popular platforms. Funny Business is run by Mike and Matt, two friends who met at college and decided to start this project during the pandemic of 2020. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/funnybusiness/support

This Anthro Life
How Humans Learned to See the Future with Byron Reese

This Anthro Life

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2022 54:31


What makes the human mind unique? How do we know there's a future, and how do we recall the past? In this episode of This Anthro Life, Byron Reese, serial entrepreneur, technologist, and author of “Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think: How Humans Learned to See the Future--and Shape It,” discusses these questions and more with host Adam Gamwell. Together, Byron and Adam explore the three leaps in human history that made us what we are today and how those leaps changed how we think about the future, the past, and everything in between.Show Highlights:[03:16] The inception of “Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think: How Humans Learned to See the Future--and Shape It”[05:23] Homo erectus and the Acheulean hand axe[06:38] How the Acheulean hand axe is a genetic object, not a cultural one[08:27] The awakening that ancient humans had undergone[09:27] Language as a means to conceptualize the future and gain knowledge of the past[13:02] The four things that all languages have[16:01] How humans' group action became more than just the sum of its parts[18:57] A superorganism named Agora as a metaphor for how people working together can get more done[24:06] How the probability theory helps us understand how we imagine the future[24:37] The probability problem[28:01] How there is predictability in randomness[34:33] The human body as a superorganism[36:30] The problem with data in artificial intelligence[41:48] Galton's regression to the mean and eugenics as a cautionary tale[44:59] Eternal vigilance as the price of current and future technological advancements[47:04] Why humans are not machines[50:05] The 21st purpose of telling stories, according to Byron[52:32] Closing statements

Our Big Dumb Mouth
OBDM1046 - Ghost Brothers | The Haunted House Probability | JFK Files | Brown Shirts | Strange News

Our Big Dumb Mouth

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2022 127:12 Very Popular


Mike, Joe and Cretched join the show / Microsoft: Dont Prevent My Passions / Ghost Brothers / The Haunted House Probability / Someone crapped on the floor at college / The Sexual Ghost / The JFK Files and the lawsuit / Biden Smelling Kids / The FBI is being used for strange things / Sex Books in School / Open Lines / Suggestions for jingles / The Backroom Creepy Pasta / States Revolt Question / Alex Jones owes trillions / Expensive Happy Meal Toys / The Karen Scarecrow  End Song "Angelic Parallelogram vs The Santanic Rhombus" by Salvage  The Probability of Buying Haunted Houses in the U.S. https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/probability-of-buying-haunted-houses-in-the-us/ Sandy Hook Families Ask Judge to Max Out Alex Jones Penalty: $2.75 trillion https://archive.ph/DWDcJ Group sues Biden and National Archives over JFK assassination files https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/361411/group-sues-biden-and-national-archives-over-jfk-assassination-files - Affiliates Links - Jackery:  https://shrsl.com/3cxhf Barebones:  https://bit.ly/3G38773  - OBDM Merch - https://obdm.creator-spring.com/ Buy Tea! Mike's wife makes some good tea: Naked Gardener Teas: https://www.thenakedgardener.us/store Bags Art Store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/BagsDraws/ Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research ▀▄▀▄▀ CONTACT LINKS ▀▄▀▄▀ ► Phone: 614-388-9109 ► Skype: ourbigdumbmouth ► Website: http://obdmpod.com ► Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/obdmpod ► Full Videos at Odysee: https://odysee.com/@obdm:0 ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/obdmpod ► Instagram: obdmpod ► Email: ourbigdumbmouth at gmail ► RSS: http://ourbigdumbmouth.libsyn.com/rss ► iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/our-big-dumb-mouth/id261189509?mt=2 send obdm bitcoin: 14DGZFByT5U35ZVVvo9SpzbJV6bHuNVJRa send obdm ether: 0x9A16c85CcB3A1B3c8073376b316Cd45F4B359413 send obdm steller: GB3LGRWRLLPCWPKJSYNGMUQIZWCQ35UD3LCQIZJRPTFJOHHM7G4AOOKI send obdm DogeCoin: D6XLEX89ybc55B4eQqz4cyfoctSaorFK9w  

The John Batchelor Show
2/2: #Ukraine: The 10-20% probability of a nuclear weapon war. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

The John Batchelor Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2022 5:34


Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow 2/2: #Ukraine: The 10-20% probability of a nuclear weapon war. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft https://jacobin.com/2022/10/nuclear-accident-ukraine-russia-putin-nato-negotiations

The John Batchelor Show
1/2: #Ukraine: The 10-20% probability of a nuclear weapon war. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

The John Batchelor Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2022 13:15


Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow 1/2: #Ukraine: The 10-20% probability of a nuclear weapon war. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft https://jacobin.com/2022/10/nuclear-accident-ukraine-russia-putin-nato-negotiations

The Higher Standard
A 100% Probability of Recession, Zillow Fumbles the Bag and Q&A

The Higher Standard

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2022 65:35


This week several reports are being delivered, including the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index, the Fed's industrial production data for September and the latest Beige Book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts, as well as the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for September. The predictions for these reports range from 'no change' to 'really bad.' In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied discuss the one report that has already been released, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and the 'modest decline' being seen in manufacturing in the state. They discuss a recent presentation by National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, who predicted that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they pass a threshold of 7%, basing his forecast on key levels of resistance borrowing costs will face after a key inflation indicator hit a 40-year high. Chris and Saied look at Bloomberg's prediction that a US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months, representing a blow to President Joe Biden's economic messaging ahead of the November midterms. They discuss a new House Prices to National Average Wage Index created by CalculatedRisk to address the difficulties of comparing the ratio of house prices to incomes, when most income data is released with a significant lag. Chris and Saied also explore Zillow's bold (and deeply flawed) prediction that the so-called pandemic housing boom would see U.S. home prices soar another 17.8% between February 2022 and February 2023. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: Why NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun's prediction that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they pass a threshold of 7% is more a statement of the obvious than a real look at the future. Bloomberg's prediction that a US recession is basically a done deal within the next 12 months, which is not what President Biden wants to hear this close to the midterms. The insights gained from CalculatdRisk's new House Prices to National Average Wage Index. Zillow's discombobulated reporting concerning house prices, and why there is likely a specific reason behind it. And so much more... Resources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden ("Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden") (article from Bloomberg) https://therealdeal.com/2022/10/14/mortgage-rates-could-continue-rise-to-8-5-nar ("Mortgage rates could continue rise to 8.5%: NAR") (article from TheRealDeal) https://apple.news/AAuXPyJsiT3K0w5Ms2ypWDA ("Stocks Poised to Open Higher on Monday") (article from Barron's) https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-prices-to-national-average-9ac ("House Prices to National Average Wage Index") (article from CalculatedRisk) https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2022/esms_2022_10.pdf?la=en ("Empire State Manufacturing Survey") (article from the New York Federal Reserve) https://apple.news/A6kmfo70XQTeYzHp0P6NGrg ("Where home prices in your local housing market are headed in 2023, according to Zillow's revised forecast") (article from Fortune) https://apple.news/AueBZQUWuT0O_KUSITbL6zg ("Latest US inflation data raises questions about Fed's interest rate hikes") (article from The Guardian) https://apple.news/AjPXZL-pCTZuRaBDW_YcN8Q ("The newest Nobel-winning economist lays out 2 reasons the US is 'really exposed' to a financial crisis") (article from Insider) https://www.instagram.com/p/Cjid1GLsN6Q/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= ("Cathie Wood's Ark Sends Open Letter to the Fed") (The Street via Instagram) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/retail-sales-september-2022.html ("Consumer spending was flat in September and...

The tastytrade network
Trade Small Trade Often - October 19, 2022 - High probability trades on 10 viewer assumptions

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2022 24:49


Liz and Jenny take a look at 10 viewer assumptions. They analyze and create high probability trades using the viewers directional ideas. In this current market they lean toward jade lizards and short puts.

The tastytrade network
Trade Small Trade Often - October 19, 2022 - High probability trades on 10 viewer assumptions

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2022 23:58


Liz and Jenny take a look at 10 viewer assumptions. They analyze and create high probability trades using the viewers directional ideas. In this current market they lean toward jade lizards and short puts.

Immigration Review
Ep. 129 - Precedential Decisions from 10/10/2022 - 10/16/2022 (en banc; deficient NTA; venue; stay of removal; adjustment of status; discretion; mens rea; aggravated felony theft offense; permissive inference by a jury; realistic probability test)

Immigration Review

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 27:54


Singh v. Garland, No. 20-70050 (9th Cir. Oct. 12, 2022)en banc challenge; in absentia motion to reopen; deficient NTA; statutory interpretation; Rodriguez; Laparra Sarr v. Garland, No. 20-3836 (2d Cir. Oct. 12, 2022)venue; jurisdiction; stay of removal; INA § 242(b)(2) Moreno v. Garland, No. 21-1237 (1st Cir. Oct. 14, 2022)adjustment of status; INA § 245(a); discretion; motion to remand; new evidence; jurisdiction  Baghdad v. Att'y Gen. U.S., No. 21-2094 (3d Cir. Oct. 11, 2022)mens rea; mental state; aggravated felony theft offense; retail theft under 18 Pa. Cons. Stat. § 3929(a)(1); permissive inference by a jury; 18 Pa. Cons. Stat. § 3929(c); use of the word “shall”; realistic probability test*Sponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.Docketwise"Modern immigration software & case management"Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your host!More episodes!Case notes!Top 15 immigration podcast in the U.S.!Featured in San Diego Voyager!DISCLAIMER:Immigration Review® is a podcast made available for educational purposes only. It does not provide legal advice. Rather, it offers general information and insights from publicly available immigration cases. By accessing and listening to the podcast, you understand that there is no attorney-client relationship between you and the host. The podcast should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed attorney in your state.MUSIC CREDITS:"Loopster," "Bass Vibes," "Chill Wave," and "Funk Game Loop" Kevin MacLeod - Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Support the show

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - October 17, 2022 - This Is How Delta Approximates Probability

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 17:20


So moving from the original intent to the option pricing source itself, we see the derivative of the BSM with respect to price mapping directly into a probabilistic function. A function that is placed in the model to specifically measure the chance that an option will have intrinsic value. Or in other words, the probability that the option will expire in-the-money - also known as delta.Did you catch our recent show on how to determine Delta/Theta levels for your portfolio?

The tastytrade network
The Skinny on Options: Abstract Applications - October 17, 2022 - This Is How Delta Approximates Probability

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 16:29


So moving from the original intent to the option pricing source itself, we see the derivative of the BSM with respect to price mapping directly into a probabilistic function. A function that is placed in the model to specifically measure the chance that an option will have intrinsic value. Or in other words, the probability that the option will expire in-the-money - also known as delta.Did you catch our recent show on how to determine Delta/Theta levels for your portfolio?

Shooting Straight Radio Podcast
The Times, The Spirit, The Text, The Probability

Shooting Straight Radio Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2022 39:01


We have allowed ourselves to be so far removed from the plain text of our Supreme Law of the Land that it's little wonder that the leftists among us feel that the interpretation of the Constitution must be based on statistics, polls, popular opinion, skewed studies and the criminal actions of evil people amongst us. This is readily seen in a recent CNN article that shows the panic on the left in the face of the Bruen decision.“On every occasion [of Constitutional interpretation] let us carry ourselves back to THE TIME when the Constitution was adopted, recollect THE SPIRIT manifested in the debates, and instead of trying [to force] what meaning may be squeezed out of THE TEXT, or invented against it, [instead let us] conform to THE PROBABLE one in which it was passed.”– Thomas Jefferson, excerpt from a letter to William Johnson, 12 June 1823Support the showDon't forget to catch Voice of the Blue podcast, hosted by Royce, and produced by the American Police Hall of Fame.Voice of the Blue (buzzsprout.com)

The Breakaway: A Republic FC Podcast
Check-In on Playoff Opponent Probabilities

The Breakaway: A Republic FC Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 10:37


On this episode of The Breakaway, Connor discusses Sunday's match, dives in on what Sacramento needs to clinch a home playoff match, and who the Republic might play in the first round.

alfalfa
67. POLITICS | Popcorn: Elon Twitter Drama, NYU Professor Gets Fired, Jordan Peterson Debate, & Probability of Nukes

alfalfa

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 56:52 Very Popular


Researchat.fm
149. Syako Punch

Researchat.fm

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 133:13


kagayaさんをゲストに迎え、シャコパンチの話題を中心に色々話しました。Shownotes Katsushi Kagaya 140. Recurrency (Researchat.fm) … “kagayaさんをゲストに迎え、アメリカザリガニの自発性行動開始の脳研究における単一ニューロンの膜電位活動の記録とその形態染色技術の話、超高速パンチをするシャコの研究、リカレントニューラルネットワークの機械学習フレームワークであるリザバーコンピューティングについてお話をうかがいました。 (w/ mazさん)” kagayaさんの(Self-organized criticality 自己組織化臨界)SOC論文 準備電位は自己組織化臨界状態で生じる神経雪崩と呼ばれるスケールのない、冪則に従う神経活動であるという主張の論文 https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2209.09075 リザバー … リザバー・コンピューティング(recurrent neural networkの機械学習法のひとつ) Researchatfm sticker リザバーハンドブック … Hands-on reservoir computing: a tutorial for practical implementation リザバーのコード … Simple Echo State Network implementations で、Echo State Network のミニマルな実装が、R、Julia、Python、MATLABのそれぞれの実装が公開されています。 Herbert Jaeger かがやさんの文章 … 超高速運動から個性そして多様性 ゆるふわ生物学のシャコパンチ回 シャコパンチ … 主にパンチして貝殻を割って食べるタイプのスマッシャーシャコの打撃運動のことをシャコパンチと言っているが、突き刺すのが得意なスピアラーシャコもパンチをする。スピアラーシャコに破られた水槽 Sheila Patek The shrimp with a kick! … Sheila Patek先生のTED テラフォーマーズ 海の牙 … 勝手に拝借失礼いたします。星野之宣先生の作品のようです。 えびボクサー … “邦題は『えびボクサー』で公式ポスターにもエビが描かれているが、実際に登場するのはシャコである。” Mantis shrimp … シャコの英語での一般の呼び方。 Roy Caldwell … シャコ界のゴッドファーザー 133. The longest self-introduction … “mazさんをゲストに迎え、自身の研究の変遷を軸に、バイオメカニクスのおもしろさを話していただきました。” ハイスピードカメラ Malcolm Burrows スピアラー・スマッシャー … 機能的に主にこのふたつに大別される。中間タイプもいる。 水槽を割るスピアラー 自分の指が刺さっている論文 … The mechanics and neural control of the prey capture strike in the mantid shrimps Squilla and Hemisquilla 刺されたところ 顎脚 Patekさんの最初の論文 … Deadly strike mechanism of a mantis shrimp スピアラーを測った論文 … Strike mechanics of an ambush predator: the spearing mantis shrimp 空気中でパンチが遅くなる … Medium compensation in a spring-actuated system キャビテーション シャコパンチが光る動画 テッポウエビ ヨコエビ テッポウエビの2000年の論文 … How Snapping Shrimp Snap: Through Cavitating Bubbles テッポウエビの動画 Kaji-sanの論文 … Parallel Saltational Evolution of Ultrafast Movements in Snapping Shrimp Claws 「回転中心乗り越えて」 … 意味不明だったと思います。「作用点がもと回転中心だったところを乗り越えて」に訂正します。 シャコパンチの4棒リンク機構モデル 「スピード優先」 … スマッシャーは速いのですが、このリンク機構だけの説明では「フォース優先」としないと間違い。変位が小さくなるとスピード小さくなっちゃうので。 筋肉の並列構造 カニの筋肉の羽状配置 Animal Physiology: Adaptation and Environment (休憩) ザリガニをサクリファイスしていた話 … Researchat.fm ep140でお聴きになれます。 (Probability of success)(Value)/Time = PV/T Kagaya and Patek, J Exp Biol (2016) … “Feed-forward motor control of ultrafast, ballistic movements” ダーウィンが来た! EMG … electromyography 筋電図 混合分布モデル 確率分布を混合した分布 … 「モデルの中では」と言っていますが、データでモデルを学習する段階では5個体分かれているけど、予測のときには(全体の線をひくときには)分かれてないということを言うべきでした。lme4 Stan … “Stan is a state-of-the-art platform for statistical modeling and high-performance statistical computation. Thousands of users rely on Stan for statistical modeling, data analysis, and prediction in the social, biological, and physical sciences, engineering, and business.” シャコのブラッシング、グルーミング シャコの眼 … 偏光が見える・感じられる シャコの「驚異の色覚」は幻想だった? Kagaya and Takahata, Science (2011) … “Sequential synaptic excitation and inhibition shape readiness discharge for voluntary behavior” SKK ritualized behavior … Contests with deadly weapons: Telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda) meral spread … 上の論文の図版 Kagaya and Takahata, Science (2011) … “Sequential synaptic excitation and inhibition shape readiness discharge for voluntary behavior” 白眉プロジェクト 神経系はなぜ東なのか 下澤楯夫 並列構造 … e.g., 神経の束、イオンチャネルなど コオロギのセンサー コオロギやゴキブリの仲間にある尾葉という気流感覚器 ハマホト … 浜松ホトニクス ザリガニのジャイアントニューロンと逃避行動 2本の腹髄の横断面をみると二対の巨大軸索が見える。外側と内側にそれぞれ lateral giant と medial giant と言われるニューロンがある。それぞれ後方と前方からの脅威(水流刺激)に一発のスパイク応答を示して脅威から遠ざかる逃避遊泳を「司令」するため、コマンドニューロンとも言われた。コマンドという、ニューロン活動と行動が一対一に対応するという概念は感覚における「おばあさん細胞」のいわば運動版である。 「神経系は東」タグ mazpod.fm … mazさんのポッドキャスト mazpod.fm Editorial Notes こちらこそ楽しく自分のお話させていただいてありがたいです。シャコやカニを食べる時、その筋肉繊維の向きを見て思い出していただければ幸いです。(kagaya) メチャクチャ楽しく聴けました。シャコ、今度日本に帰ったら食べます(違(tadasu)

On the Brink with Andi Simon
332: Byron Reese—How Humans Learned to See the Future, and You Can Too!

On the Brink with Andi Simon

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 33:24


Hear how telling each other stories helped us evolve My audience knows how much I like to learn about early human evolution and how we continue to adapt to changing times. Thanks to my former PR guru, Sarah Wilson, I was introduced to Byron Reese, who is a futurist, an author and an entrepreneur. He tends to see things through that fresh lens I always talk about. Byron's new book (his fourth) is called, Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think: How Humans Learned to See the Future—and Shape It. This is a fascinating book that provides a new look at the history and destiny of humanity. Storytelling allows us to envision the future. Dice teach us about probability, which enables us to try to predict the future. And rocks that think—a reference to a computer's CPU—enable us to build the future. Listen in! Watch and listen to our conversation here From our very beginnings, we've been a very different type of being. I wasn't quite sure what Byron's book is about until I opened the first pages and began to wander with him through the still unanswered questions about how humans became these amazing creatures with story-making minds, the ability to think and then converse about their ideas, and the wherewithall to develop cultures that we can share, change and believe to be our best realities. As humans, the one thing we must do is see the future. All other animals live in the moment. Perhaps some have evolved genetic capabilities that enable them to survive in different environments—like the 40,000 ant species that populate the world. But humans are one species, and we know we have a past and a future. That future is important. We know we are not immortal. Do other animals plan for the afterlife? Develop religions? Think big philosophical thoughts? From our thinking came our language, and conversations that are essential to our being and our survival. I invite you to listen in or read the transcript of our conversation because it's fascinatin. Just remember, you have a unique place on this earth. Treat it, and yourself, kindly. If you'd like to connect with Byron, you can find him on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and his website, and you can email him at byronreese@gmail.com. For more about storytelling and how the future shapes us, start here Blog: What Is Futurism And Do You Need It? Blog: How Storytelling Can Transform Your Culture And Energize Your Team Podcast: Now Is No Time To Be Afraid Of This Blurry Future Additional resources for you My two award-winning books: Rethink: Smashing The Myths of Women in Businessand On the Brink: A Fresh Lens to Take Your Business to New Heights Our website: Simon Associates Management Consultants   Read the transcript of our podcast here Andi Simon: Welcome to On the Brink With Andi Simon. Hi, I'm Andi Simon. As you know, I'm your host and your guide, and my job is to get you off the brink. I want you to soar. But the only way you can do that is if you can see, feel and think in new ways so that you can change what you've  been doing. The times are changing, and we're futurists. We need to see what's coming and begin to make stories up about them. That's what Simon Associates does. And that's about all the advertising I'm going to tell you about. Our job is to help you change. People hate to change. Today, I found a marvelous, marvelous person who came to me through my PR firm of the past: Sarah Wilson. Byron Reese is amazing. Let me tell you about him and then he'll tell you about your new self. And I love his face. Byron is an Austin-based entrepreneur with a quarter century of experience building and running technology companies. It's gonna be interesting listening to how he's applied it in his new book today. The new book is called Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think, and don't kid yourself: we're going to be talking a lot about how humans learn to see the future and shaping our conversation for today. He's a recognized authority on AI, and holds a number of technology patents. He's also a futurist. Now, this podcast has been ranked among the top 20 futurists podcasts. I didn't know I was a futurist. But I like to help you see that future. And if you can't see it, you can't live today.  Byron gives talks around the globe about how technology is changing work, education and culture, like everything. And it's fun to think about it. He's an author of four books. But today, I think we're going to talk about this new one because it adds some dimension to all the others that he's put together. Byron, thank you for joining me today. Byron Reese: Thank you for having me. Andi Simon: It's so much fun to share with the listener, or the viewer. Who is Byron Reese? Give us your journey so we can talk about how you got here because everything had a little of the past, a little of the future, and a lot of hard work to come. Tell us about your book, Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think. How did Byron come up with it? Byron Reese: Well, I've always been in technology, because I've always been really interested in it. I'm not a gadget person, but I'm really interested in the idea of technology. And it's this thing we kind of discovered as a species that allows us to amplify what we're able to do without it. There was a time that we think we hit a genetic bottleneck a long time ago, and there were just 1,000 or 2,000 humans left and nobody would have bet on us then. And here we are. It's because we learned that trick about technology. And so I've always just been really intrigued by the idea of technology. And so I've done that as a business. And then I started writing. Every morning before I got to work, I would just start writing and those became the books that I wrote. And they're just kind of my own journey of what I think about and I find interesting. Andi Simon: Well, you don't sort of just stumble into being an AI or a patent expert in technology. Was this important as you were growing up, did you have particular role models or aha moments, or things that just started making you curious? Byron Reese: I grew up on a farm in East Texas, outside of a town with only 500 people. So it was not an area steeped in technology. But my father had a corporate job for 30-something years, and his father worked in the railroad and his father operated a ferry. And when I looked back, it always seemed like they kind of did the thing that epitomized their times. It was the Western migration, and then the railroad, and then just the corporate thing that came up and unemployment and all of that, and I knew growing up that you could just tell it was technology. And so I went to college and met my wife or the woman who would become my wife, and we moved to the Bay Area, to be a part of that energy that was in the 90s. And we did that for a while. And then when we decided to start a family, we moved back to Texas, to Austin, and we raised and homeschooled our children. And that's me. Andi Simon: That's a very interesting story, your reflection on how each of your parents, grandparents, and so forth, was reflecting the times in which they were living. You in some ways are reflecting the times that we're living in now, which I would not have thought about, but if the listener or viewer is listening and watching: think about it. Where are you now because of where we are now as a society? This book, though, has a particular purpose. And I think it would be good to talk about, it's not a textbook, it is a history of humankind in a very important way, which should give the listener and the viewer some time to think about the times that we are in. Because somehow, 50,000 years ago, we had a quantum leap in our brain. And we are just like any other animal. Remember, we are one species, there are 40,000 different ant species. That's how they have mutated and populated the world. We're just one. And we probably can be intimate with anyone across the globe, which is sort of an interesting phenomenon. But we also can see the future and anticipate our mortality, and look back on the past and worry about our memory. Was it right? Was it wrong? And was it different than what actually happened? So we are an interesting human. Let's talk about Byron. How did this book begin to develop? And let us talk about the three phases that so fascinated you. Byron Reese: They're very interested in the question of why. Why we're different from animals, because you'll always hear: we're just another animal. But when you look around the world, it doesn't look that way. It really looks like we're aliens. And everything else is kind of native. But we're very different in our cities and literature and all that. And we really got curious why that happened. And the short answer is, we believe in two things that don't exist. We believe in the future and the past. And animals don't. That's a contentious statement, but I try to justify it in the book. And what we do is, we have what's known as episodic memory, where we remember specific things that happened to us, which animals don't. They don't make predictions into the future, maybe just a minute into the future. Maybe I'm thinking, Okay, I want to climb that tree and get an apple. What's the best way to do it? Those sorts of things. And those were, I think, the first stories we told ourselves. They were in fiction, they were like us. We think that way. We kind of picture these different things, very different from other creatures. The coolest thing I learned writing this book is probably that it was a creature that lived before it's called Homo Erectus. And Erectus lived on this planet 1.6 million years, 80,000 generations, and simply had one tool: the hand axe. It looks like a big arrowhead. And that's it. And no matter when you find these, on which of three continents you find them, they're all alike. And that's really mysterious because you would think if in 80,000 generations, everybody was just copying their parents, then eventually they would, like the telephone game, they would just change and in different regions, but they didn't. They're all identical. And what does that mean? It means Erectus didn't know they were making those tools, the way a bird doesn't know they're building a nest, they just do it. But it isn't something that they know how to do. It's not a cultural object, or technological object, it's a genetic object. You see a beaver, if you put a recording of music, of running water in the middle of the field, and a beaver walks by the dam over it, they don't really know what they're doing, but they know how to build that one dam. So, you think about that: 80,000 generations where nothing happened. And then you think about us. We only took three generations to get from Kitty Hawk to the moon. And you realize we are a very different thing. And I kind of think it's this for millions of years, billions of years: the only place we had to write down what we learned was in our DNA. It took millions of years to write one new thing. And then one day, we got what you talked about: language, 40,000-50,000 years ago, and all of a sudden we can think and that's really the power of language. It organizes your thoughts. It's not mere speculation. There's a wonderful quote in the book from Helen Keller, who talked about what her life was like before her teacher came and how she didn't know she was a person. She didn't know she was a discrete thing in the universe. So we got language. Andi Simon: Listen for a second, because I think that for my audience, I know that this is a curious question. We were able to sync and not necessarily communicate our thoughts. And I think that when you are walking in the woods, and there's nobody to talk to, but you're thinking, and you're doing just what our ancestors were doing, then the question always is, and I was fascinated by your effort to try and explain how did that happen, where all of a sudden we went from our thoughts to be able to share our thoughts. And how would they know what those words meant? And was there a quantum leap in the DNA of everyone at the time to be able to understand language? We have, you know, different languages, but they're all very similar in structure. Is it part of our acquired DNA? I mean, this is not simple stuff, because it's really quite interesting about how we took the thinking and turned it into a conversation that you and I can understand each other's meaning. Byron Reese: Yes, absolutely. And of course, we have to speculate a little. And so there's four or five different ideas on how that could have happened. I tend to believe that there was a mutation that happened in one person one time, you know, on some Tuesday morning at 8:30, or something like that happened, that his or her progeny may have inherited. And that's the capacity to think. In language, you see, we don't really have any organs for language. We have to repurpose organs we use for other stuff to be able to do this. And if in fact, language did begin in just one person, in one of these little lonely bands of 100-150 people, then after a few generations, when it had spread among them, they would be superheroes, and they would have superpowers, and they would very quickly displace everything else that didn't have capacity for language. And that's why it looks like it appeared everywhere, all at once. But I think that's what must have happened because human universals. There are a couple of hundreds of these things that all human cultures have. Andi Simon: Yes. Now, the interesting part is, I got fascinated by the cave art, that all of a sudden, we went from no cave. Africa has practically nothing that looks like the European or the Asian cave art that came at a period of time. And it's not stick figures. And even in the Americas, there's amazing art that all of a sudden emerges at once. And we say, How did that happen? You know, your point is that an alien is not so crazy. Talk to us about art, about music, about the flute, the things that emerge and seem to say something about who those people were, who created it, and how they shared something that was difficult to share across continents of that time. And all sudden it all at once. Even getting to Australia. I mean, there's something there worth sharing, more than just reading the book, because I love those stories. That's what makes me go, Oh, how did that happen? What happened? And how did it happen? Byron Reese: You're right, there were no precursors of anything like representative art. And if you look at some of these caves, they are beautiful. I mean, it's just beautiful. I would frame that and hang it on my wall. But the thing to keep in mind is, it wasn't just that they could do that beautifully. It was high tech, like literally, because they were using fat to make the pigments and here they weren't using the power to extend them. For black, they could have used charcoal. They had charcoal in the fire 20 feet away. But it wasn't black enough evidently. And so they figured out a new way to make black pigment using a mineral they had to heat 1200 degrees, which was hard to do and the closest source was 240 miles away. So they had to be mindful enough to go. They had to build scaffolding too and then to your point, digging in those caves in Chile is amazing because it's like King Tut's tomb. It was sealed off and we found it and the footprints, like a boy and his dog or sand, like in the kitchen. But when you excavate those times, you're right, we find musical instruments. The oldest ones we have at the exact same time, and we find the representative art at the exact same time. So whatever gave us language, I think really did a lot more than that. I mean, it made us, and your remark about aliens, I think might be a reference to something in the book where every time I mentioned this to people, they would obviously have bet it's aliens. And it isn't that people think it's aliens, but it is so dramatic and invites something like that. Andi Simon: That makes you ask how, and the problem is, we want answers. And the problem is, we don't have any. And then there were the Neanderthals and Denisovans, and others who looked similar but didn't survive the same way. We still have our DNA, they have their DNA. And so, you know, they were there. But it's a really interesting set of questions. So your point about our ancestors having a DNA that allowed them to produce the same tool everywhere they were, and then humans began to create variety and tremendous ingenuity across the globe. However, we expanded, and then came the Middle Ages and something transformative developed. And I think I'd like to move on a little bit. I mean, that's a lot of time to go from the starting point to major transformation. But I don't care if it's Michelangelo or anybody else in 1716 or 1617: something happened that changed us. Probability theory? What happened? Byron Reese: What happened is, we got this capacity for language, which we then use to imagine these stories that were very mundane. They were just moments ahead. And later, we started articulating them. But once we could imagine the future, we weren't content with that. We're not a particularly contented species. And we weren't competing with that. And we didn't want to just leave the picture, we wanted to know what was going to happen. We wanted to predict it. And that seems like a tall order. But that's what happened. And we, in 1654, these two men, de Fermat and Pascal are writing these letters, they're trying to solve this math problem that is trivially simple. I won't even bore you with it, other than to say, a 10-year-old could solve it. And this is a math problem. The great minds of Europe had worked on it for 100 years. And they needed a new way to think about the future. And that's what they did. And they did it: probability theory. And then, man, it just all happened, you had the first probability textbook within eight years. And the whole modern world, artificial intelligence is just probability theory. High speed, like, it's all, that's what it is, we invented that. And the reason it took so long is because we had to figure out why the future happened the way it did. I mean, a futurist is really that people try to understand why the future unfolded this way, not that way, if I may have a visual aid. There were all different theories on why things happened the way they did. They were destined to happen, and they were fated to happen. Or they can only happen that way. Andi Simon: Or we don't have a clue. Byron Reese: What they never guessed was this: So this is probably something you may have seen at a science museum before. This is a paper full of BBs, I'm about to flip it. And when I do that, the BBs are gonna fold down and they're gonna hit these things. And they can bounce to the left, to the right, and then they'll hit another one. They can bounce to the left or the right, left to the right. And what happens is, every time you do it, you get a normal curve. You can do this all day long. And this is the thing nobody ever imagined was in randomness. Even to this day, if you were to ask me, If you flipped the coin 1000 times, how many times will heads come up? I know how to answer that: 500. But I mean, I've never done it. And I didn't know how to answer it. I would have said, who knows, maybe 100. And then the next time 908, 105, 100. But the chances that it's ever under 400, or more than 600, or one in many billions. It's never happened, it never will happen. And so you think about the most random thing: imagine a coin toss that you can say something that confident about it. And that's the basis of probability theory: you can assign probabilities to things in the future.  Andi Simon: I love reading Martin Seligman, his work on humble perspectives. And as I often work with my clients, I tell them that if you want to live today, you have to have some visualization of what tomorrow is gonna bring. Because if not, we will have a very difficult time. You can do the habits of yesterday. We're very happy with them, and comfortable with our habits. But tomorrow isn't going to be like yesterday and may move slowly or quickly. I mean, the pandemic was so catalytic because it showed everybody how in a moment, everything can change, and without any control or decision-making or probability...although I suspect some people have had a probability theory that that was going to happen. But it is an interesting phenomenon for humans because we need to know what's coming in order for us to prepare for it by living now. The past has given us experiential, but we only remember parts of that, not every memory. And if you talk to people about what happened on X day, when we were all together, they each have a different story. And the creativity is that they fit the story into their own stories. And so the story reflects them. They're all the heroes in it, but not really necessarily what the truth is. My favorite quote is, "The only truth is there is no truth." And so then we begin to think about what came out of then, a great creativity there, and then came along your computers and the modern age, more or less, whatever is going on now. And what's coming into the future. Mr. Futurist? What do you see coming? And how are you getting folks to prepare for the uncertainties that are coming next? What do you see happening? Byron Reese: When we got our cognitive eye opening, remember earlier I talked about the only place we had to write things was in our DNA? Well, suddenly, we had a new place. We could write stuff. We could write it in our DNA, but we could also write it just in our head. And that became our DNA. Instead of taking 100,000 years to learn not to eat the purple berries, I could just say, Hey, man, don't eat those purple berries, they'll make you sick. And that's it. That's it, that was a mutation about to spread. Everybody can say, Those purple berries are bad. Well, there's an old essay called iPad that was written seven years ago, where a guy points out, Nobody knows how to make a pencil. There's not a person alive who knows every step of making every part of the pencil, and yet pencils get made, even though nobody knows how to make it. So what has happened in the computer age is, we now know that with writing and computers, the human story is that people will learn stuff, and then they die. And then it's forgotten. Then somebody else comes along, learns something, and then they die, and it's forgotten. Or maybe they told somebody but then they messed it up. And our whole species just kind of resets every generation, a few things filter down but for most things are forgotten. And I think that's what's really going to change is that, I'm gonna have a toothbrush that will tell me if I've got the flu virus in my mouth. And I mean, I want that toothbrush, and it will collect data. And I will have the spoon that will tell me the nutrition of every bite I have. That's collecting data, right? And so it can tell me, Oh, you're not getting enough, whatever. And one after the other. And I think that's kind of what we're building. When we just had probability theory, we basically had paper and pencils, and cycles. That was it. And so between 1654, when we invented probability, to 1954, the world we built, we built with paper. And now, we said, We want to do this, like, on a massive scale, even beyond our own ability. So I think that's what we do. We're collecting evermore data. And we're going to use that data to record the life experiences of everybody, and use those to make everybody else's life better. So that in the future, everyone will be wiser than anyone who's ever lived because everyone will have at least access to this knowledge base. In the book, I guess, all these examples of things that we couldn't have seen in the day, like iodine and salt, because so people wouldn't get goiter. But they didn't know this whole country had an iodine deficiency. And when they measured the average IQ, it went up four points and in some parts of the country, went up 15 points from that one thing in the south, which had a corn based diet, there was niacin deficiency, and we started fortifying corn flakes with niacin. And then that went away. And then we used to put stuff in things like lead. Lead paint and lead constantly and we didn't know, there just wasn't any data. There was no such thing as data before for 16 people. It didn't exist. Why would it? What would you have ever done with data for 16 people? And now, if we had handled the data, you would have been able to see all that stuff in that data. And that is a speculation. I mean, there's an antidepressant called Wellbutrin that after some number of years of being used, some people said, you know, my cravings for cigarettes went down. They studied and they found out, Wow, that's a smoking cessation drug. Very good. They repackaged it down, and, and so forth. So there's everything in the data. But we don't yet have the tools. We have the computers to do it now, like we have processor power. But we don't really have the tools to cope with the kinds of datasets that are being automatically built to try to build this knowledge base. Andi Simon: For a number of years, I taught a course for the Society for Healthcare Strategy and Market Development, and it was called Your Data's Talking to You, Can You Hear It?, because healthcare strategists had an abundance of data points. I'm an anthropologist. Anthropologists are taught early that out of context, data do not exist. And consequently, that abundance of stuff needed to be turned into a story. And I work with them on, Which story are you going to tell to the leadership of your organization, to the middle management, to the physicians? How are you going to craft those data points so one size doesn't fit anyone, because the first thing that doctors start to do is delete your data. The data is wrong. It's the way you crafted a story, using the data to help you see, feel and think about that in a different fashion. And Byron is right, because you know, the computers can't think, maybe they're getting there, but they can't. They can accumulate all of this data, but they can't really interpret it, or craft a story for you. So our uniqueness takes us back to the beginning of our conversation. Think. And if we can think with better insights to what's happening, what could we think about that could be transformative about our society? You know, he writes about education and culture, and it works well, like everything. And how do we think about coming out of pandemic time in a way that gives us an amazing opportunity. I always tell people, Don't waste a crisis. Humans hate to change. The amygdala loves to hijack new ideas. The cortisol comes flying out the minute there's something new. So as you're listening to us, I bet you're saying, Oh, no, and I'm saying, Yes. And begin to think through what's possible. You know, Byron, we've had such a good time, but I think it's time we wrap up a couple of things you don't want our listeners to forget. Byron Reese: The book has one of the purposes of stories, which I accumulated over a couple of years, just reading storybooks. When I was working on this book, I would write it in the mornings, but in the evenings, I read storybooks. And I would just try to figure out what purpose is the story serving, and I think I came up with 20. But if you read the epilogue, one page long, there is a secret 21st purpose that is the biggest one of all when it's the stories that give life meaning. And there's these two different narratives of our lives. One is that, you know, we're just kind of like big bags of chemicals and electrical impulses that careened through space and bumped into other big bags. And then we fizzle out and are forgotten. That's a story and it robs everything of any meaning permanently. But there's another one that says that your life is not that. All life has inherent worth. And that your life is not a domino rally of minute after minute after minute after minute, but that all of the moments of your life are kind of connected in a sequence that tells a story. And can I close the book by asking, who is telling that story? Andi Simon: Well, in that you're leading to something real important, I'm gonna put the book up again soo the folks can see. There we go: Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think. And it's how humans learn to see the future and shape it. And I think that, from my perspective, what I would like our listeners to walk away with other than to go by the book, is reading with this open mind and being curious. I think it's our curiosity that has become so essential for us to see things through a fresh lens, and to begin to understand. If I hadn't worked with company after company that get stuck or stalled, I'd say to you, Piece of cake, the times have changed, we just adapt. But humans are so convinced that what they do today is the way we should do it, that they forget that we would have never done it that way over all of these centuries. You know, maybe Homo Erectus did the same things with this Chilean tool exactly the same way because it was DNA driven. But for us, we're creators, and we're story makers. And as we listen to each other's stories that capture the insights that come, and begin to see your own life with different purpose and different opportunity, the one thing that we often say in here is that we are mortal. We know that. And that changes the dynamics. Does my dog know to live everyday in the moment? People say, Live in the moment. It's hard to do that because we can see what's coming, even if we're not sure. So where should they buy your book, Byron? Byron Reese: All of the usual places. Andi Simon: And if you buy it on Amazon and like to write reviews, it is a great place to put in a little. It's a great book. And I think you're going to enjoy reading it and reflecting on our own next step. Because if you spent the past year thinking about the future, and the future is here for us to create. And I do think that it's a time of great creativity, and don't waste a crisis because it's a time for you to think in new ways. Thank you. Do you also speak and consult? Are there other things that you can offer our listeners? Byron Reese: Yes, I do. I speak when I'm invited. And that's most of what I do. I'm writing another book, which is due in 33 days, because I've got a big countdown clock on my mantle. Andi Simon: I'm laughing because I could look to November 1. I thank you for taking time out to do this. And we'll do a podcast to discuss your next book and mine. But for now, thank you all for coming today. It's been absolutely a pleasure. Byron Reese wrote this great book, but he's coming up with his next one. But he reflects like I love to do on who we are as humans, where we've been and where we're going and how we're going to do better together. Because it's only together that we can go anywhere. Humans love herds. And we love to be together. And it's hard to be alone. And loneliness often comes from living alone. You send me great emails and you send me great people you want me to interview. It's info@Andisimon.com. And you can find my books there and everything else. And we love to help you see, feel and think in new ways so you can change, so come along and send us your thoughts. Have a great day. Thank you again.

More or Less: Behind the Stats
Teens and antidepressants, stamp duty savings and earthquake probabilities

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 28:28


A survey from a mental health charity suggested that more than a third of British teenagers had been prescribed antidepressants. We debunk the figure. Also we investigate a tweet from the UK Treasury about how much homebuyers will save in stamp duty. Plus how Mexico has been hit by earthquakes three times on the same day of the year - what are the chances? And how incorrect figures from the government have given a false picture of the number of cars on Britain's minor roads. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard

Forbidden Knowledge News
Beyond Classified: Beyond the Narrative - UFO Info War - A Somber Probability w/ Dave Zed

Forbidden Knowledge News

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 58:35


Generation Zed Podcast https://open.spotify.com/show/7uCpPi5GSIDzj3XqjP65GG?si=L7fQSKD8RAan9oY24pddVA&utm_source=copy-linkMake a Donation to Forbidden Knowledge News http://supportfkn.comhttps://www.paypal.me/forbiddenknowledgeneThe Forbidden Knowledge Network https://forbiddenknowledge.news/Sign up on Rokfin!https://rokfin.com/fknplusC60 PurplePowerhttps://go.c60purplepower.com/knowledge10/ or use coupon code knowledge10Centropix Frequency Healing Devices https://linktr.ee/CentropixJustin Pedini's Facebook and YouTube https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100078444041811https://youtube.com/user/SOLIDPEDINIhttps://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRPXe3xS/One Great Work Network https://onegreatworknetwork.com/Become Self-Sufficient With A Food Forest!!https://foodforestabundance.com/get-started/?ref=CHRISTOPHERMATHUse coupon code: FORBIDDEN for discountsKaren Holton https://karenholtonhealthcoach.comSustainable Communities Telegram Grouphttps://t.me/+kNxt1F0w-_cwYmExThe FKN Store!https://www.fknstore.net/Our Facebook pageshttps://www.facebook.com/forbiddenknowledgenewsconspiracy/https://www.facebook.com/FKNNetwork/Instagram @forbiddenknowledgenews1Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForbiddenKnow10?t=7qMVcdKGyWH_QiyTTYsG8Q&s=09email meforbiddenknowledgenews@gmail.comForbidden Knowledge News is also available on all popular podcast platforms!some music thanks to:https://www.bensound.com/Thanks to Cory Hughes for web design and production 

Rev Real Estate School | New Real Estate Agent Podcast
247 - What To Do When You Don't Know The Value Of A House

Rev Real Estate School | New Real Estate Agent Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 18:19


Our real estate pricing strategy can take a turn when we don't have enough comparables for a CMA, or if the CMA is leading to a suggested pricing range that you know isn't accurate. How do you approach this? As real estate agents, we think that it's our job to know the value of every property. That's not the case. Our job is to interpret data and make suggestions based on a seller's goals. As we progress with our careers, you'll gain a sense of what a property will sell for, but there are always those properties that we just can't predict. In this video and podcast, you'll learn how to approach a conversation with a seller when you don't know the value of the property. 0:00 Intro 0:45 Why are we unaware of the value of the house? 3:55 The simplicity of pricing: overpriced vs. underpriced 5:31 Probability vs. lines in the sand 6:40 Being honest 8:23 CMAs are historical 9:48 The most important piece of data that informs our pricing strategy 12:39 How to adjust price quickly 14:27 What's the motivation for moving Sign up for the weekly Rev Real Estate School Newsletter: https://rev-real-estate-school.ck.page/5b0889360c Rev Real Estate School is here to teach real estate agents how to become successful in their careers and 2x your production while working 5 days per week by working your SOI. The real estate agent tips and tricks will benefit beginner agents and growing REALTORs® with marketing ideas, database marketing, social media, scripts, dialogues, habits, mindset, networking, skills, and negotiation.

More or Less: Behind the Stats
Teens and antidepressants, stamp duty savings and earthquake probabilities

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 28:22


A survey from a mental health charity suggested that more than a third of British teenagers had been prescribed antidepressants. We debunk the figure. Also we investigate a tweet from the UK Treasury about how much homebuyers will save in stamp duty. Plus how Mexico has been hit by earthquakes three times on the same day of the year - what are the chances? And how incorrect figures from the government have given a false picture of the number of cars on Britain's minor roads. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard

Retirement Lifestyle Show  with Roshan Loungani, Erik Olson & Adrian Nicholson

Today on the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani, Erik Olson, and Adrian Nicholson are back with the fifth installation of Battle of the Plans. They use their complex financial planning software packages to analyze a hypothetical client situation and formulate a practical retirement plan. [01:49] Client Profile for Our Hypothetical Financial Plan [04:57] Does Our Hypothetical Client Have Enough to Retire? [08:05] Assumptions in a Retirement Plan [10:02] The Probability of Success or Failure of a Retirement Plan [15:50] When to Consider Roth Conversions [20:34] How to Minimize Taxes on Required Minimum Distributions [22:50] Practical Investment Strategies For Our Hypothetical Client [24:30] Can You Minimize Taxes with Asset Location? [27:50] Investing According to Your Risk Tolerance [30:45] Inflation and Investing in Bonds [32:20] When to Separate Your Portfolio Between Income and Growth [37:35] How Retirement Planning Tools Work [39:01] Sustainable Retirement Spending and Market Returns [45:00] Working with an Advisor for Retirement Planning [49:00] Parting Thoughts Roshan can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468. Erik can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652. Adrian can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905. Follow Us At: Website: https://retirementlifestyleshow.com/ https://www.retirewithroshan.com https://youtu.be/hKVzI87v0tA https://twitter.com/RoshanLoungani https://www.linkedin.com/in/roshanloungani/ https://www.facebook.com/retirewithroshan/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/financialerik/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-nicholson-74b82b13b/ #retirementlifestylepodcast #fire #podcast #FI #Retire #retirewithroshan #retirement #investing All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.

The Local Maximum
Ep. 245 - Axioms of Probability

The Local Maximum

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 47:22


Max starts with a brief news update on ethereum, and then moves to the Kolmogorov axioms of probability. What is an axiom system anyway - and why would someone want to change it?

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Bonus Episode: In Person Recording, Increased Probability of Recession

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 70:01


Mark, Cris, and Ryan sit down for their first in-person podcast to discuss their recession odds over the next 6,12, or 18 months. They list out both contributing and mitigating risk factors and the market signals to watch to understand where the economy is headed.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

The 7th Rule
The Fantastic Foresight | DS9 6.9, "Statistical Probabilities" | T7R #149

The 7th Rule

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 77:55


Cirroc Lofton (Jake Sisko in Star Trek Deep Space Nine) and Ryan T. Husk review DS9's season 6, episode 9, "Statistical Probabilities." Produced by Ryan T. Husk.Audio Remastered by Scott Jensen. Executive Producer:Dr. Susan V. GrunerAssociate Producers:Commander Homer FrizzellYvette BlackmonEve EnglandCarmen ShamwellTJ Jackson-BeyDr. Ann Marie SegalTimothy BaumBill Victor ArucanTitus MohlerDarlena Marie BlanderJohn MannRex A. WoodDr. Mohamed NoorTierney C. DieckmannJoe BalsarottiEd MowerAnil O. PolatThomas CollingsAnil K. Chander Lawrence NealsIsaac Stalk Ed JarotEvery week, we rewatch an episode of Deep Space Nine, relive and review it. Join us! Rewatch DS9 every week and get in on the discussion - we'd love to have you!If you enjoy our content please leave us a five star rating and comment/review.Support and join the community here: https://www.patreon.com/The7thRuleWatch the episodes with full video here: https://www.youtube.com/c/The7thRuleSocial media:https://twitter.com/7thRulehttps://www.facebook.com/The7thRule/https://www.facebook.com/groups/The7thRuleGet cool T7R merchandise here: https://the-7th-rule.creator-spring.com/Cirroc's sister, Merone, makes amazing East-African inspired clothing and items for sale at:https://www.abyssiniankiosk.com/Malissa Longo creates fun and functional Star Trek art at:https://www.walkingartmadebymalissa.com/We continue The 7th Rule journey without our friend, our brother, Aron Eisenberg. He is still with us in spirit, in stories, in laughter, and in memories, and the show must go on.

America's Coach Micheal Burt
Flip The Switch - Conditions and Probability (EP#506)

America's Coach Micheal Burt

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 8:18


Flip The Switch - Conditions and Probability (EP#506)  COACH BURT HAS A SIMPLE PHILOSOPHY “Everybody needs a good coach in life.” Those that have great coaches outperform those that don't 3-4X and out earn those that don't 3-4X.Burt is both INTENSE and POSITIVE and many like his authentic nature and pure coaching skills of packaging and delivering content in ways that get people to take action and get results.Coach Micheal Burt is considered “America's Coach,” a unique blend of a former championship basketball coach combined with a deep methodology of inner-engineering people to produce at a higher level in the business world. Coach Burt found his unique voice early in life at the age of 15 by starting his basketball coaching career with a junior pro basketball team.

Daily Power Affirmations for your Creative Maniac Mind (in 60 Seconds)

Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that you being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Click Here to Get Your Affirmation Card Deck Today    Download 10 Free Affirmation Wallpapers for Your Computer and Mobile Phone   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

The tastytrade network
Splash Into Futures - September 22, 2022 - POP... What is it good for?

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 28:11


Probability of profit (POP) is a metric we use often to gauge the probability of a certain trade expiring at a profit of at least $0.01.Like any other metric, there is a useful way to use and interpret POP and also many not-so-useful ways to use it. How should we use this metric to our advantage while steering clear of the pitfalls?

The tastytrade network
Splash Into Futures - September 22, 2022 - POP... What is it good for?

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 27:20


Probability of profit (POP) is a metric we use often to gauge the probability of a certain trade expiring at a profit of at least $0.01.Like any other metric, there is a useful way to use and interpret POP and also many not-so-useful ways to use it. How should we use this metric to our advantage while steering clear of the pitfalls?

On The Brink with Castle Island
David Hoffman (Bankless) on Everything About the Merge (EP.349)

On The Brink with Castle Island

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2022 66:37


Bankless' David Hoffman joins Matt and Nic for a special episode to cover Ethereum's highly-anticipated Merge. In this episode:  How David came to Ethereum and the Bankless origin story The story behind the Bankless DAO Whether David would ever consider focusing on other blockchains What could cause David to abandon Ethereum The Coinbase OFAC filtering debate Why proposer-builder separation might make validator-driven censorship harder Filtering transactions at the pool layer versus undertaking a ‘Treasury Activated Soft Fork' Under what conditions would social slashing of major validators make sense? How embedded is the social slashing consensus into Ethereum's social fabric? The significance of the new supply dynamics stemming from the Merge Is the unlock something to worry about? Is there a ‘crowding out' effect from staked Ether becoming a risk free rate? Does MEV pose a concentration risk post Merge? Are MEV-driven yields for stakers perverse? Is MEV an inescapable feature of richly stateful blockchains Why the notion of Certified-Toxic-MEV-free blocks might emerge How is Ethereum's roadmap determined? What's the deal with the Surge, the Verge, the Purge, and the Splurge? What are the strongest narratives coming out of the Merge? Probabilities of the Merge success Why the Merge may not be fully priced in Follow David on Twitter and learn more about Bankless. Intro and outro music: Daniel Allan's Collage #344 

Wheelbarrow Profits Podcast: Multifamily Real Estate Investment
Advancing Your Plan with Wyatt Simon | A Testimonial

Wheelbarrow Profits Podcast: Multifamily Real Estate Investment

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 19:32


On this episode, Gino sits down with Wyatt Simon to discuss one of the most important components of personal financial engineering: A specially-designed, permanent life insurance policy. They talk about how to leverage these policies and Wyatt's experience working with the 100 Year team to achieve his goals. We all know the obvious benefits of life insurance, but our special design advances your financial plan beyond a death benefit for your family, and can be leveraged in many ways. Additional benefits like freedom to use the growing cash value and implement our Dual Asset Strategy, are what make our policies different than typical life insurance. Wyatt is a Colorado native and has been in real estate for over 6 years. He is a full-time investor with a current portfolio over 100 units. He is the owner of Full Circle Property Management and runs both acquisition and management for Full Circle Real Estate utilizing the strength of his incredible team. Key Moments

Choiceology with Katy Milkman
Not by a Long Shot: With Guests Katia Jordan & Craig Fox

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2022 33:52 Very Popular


Humans can easily distinguish between a zero-chance event (e.g., the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2022) and a sure thing (e.g., the sun coming up tomorrow). But in between those two clear outcomes, it turns out that we're not great at estimating odds.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.Katia Jordan had all the makings of a tennis star: a preternatural talent, an intense drive to succeed, top-tier coaches, and parents who supported her dream completely. She was certain that she would be the next Venus Williams. But along the way, she discovered that her path to tennis glory was not as straight as she imagined.Katia Jordan is a former Division 1 tennis player and is currently script coordinator on the television program All American Homecoming.Next, Katy speaks with UCLA psychology professor Craig Fox about how we tend to overweight the likelihood of small probabilities. Building on seminal work by his mentor Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Dr. Fox explains a bias in the way we imagine the odds of rare events and demonstrates approaches gleaned from his research that can help us better avoid distortions in the way we conceptualize risk and reward.  Craig Fox is the Harold Williams Chair and Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.Finally, Katy gives examples of the areas in your life where you can save money, improve health, and avoid some anxiety by better understanding the true likelihood of rare events.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important Disclosures All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0822-2CTA)