Podcasts about Probability

Is life the product of chance alone, or does its existence point toward deeper scientific or philosophical questions? In this thought-provoking episode of The ‘X' Zone, Rob McConnell welcomes physicist, author, and science educator Robert Piccioni to explore the fascinating question: Can Life Really Be Merely an Accident? Drawing upon his background in physics and cosmology, Dr. Piccioni examines the scientific principles surrounding the origin of life, the apparent fine-tuning of the universe, probability, evolution, and the fundamental laws of nature. He discusses how science approaches these profound questions while distinguishing between evidence, theory, and philosophical interpretation. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Dr. Piccioni explore topics including cosmology, biology, the conditions necessary for life, and the ongoing dialogue between science, philosophy, and theology. Rather than offering simple answers, the discussion encourages listeners to think critically about one of humanity's oldest and most compelling questions. Whether you're interested in physics, cosmology, biology, philosophy, or the origins of life, this episode offers an engaging exploration of the scientific and philosophical ideas that continue to shape our understanding of existence.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-x-zone-radio-tv-show--1078348/support.Please note that all XZBN radio and/or television shows are Copyright © REL-MAR McConnell Meda Company, Niagara, Ontario, Canada – www.rel-mar.com. For more Episodes of this show and all shows produced, broadcasted and syndicated from REL-MAR McConell Media Company and The 'X' Zone Broadcast Network and the 'X' Zone TV Channell, visit www.xzbn.net. For programming, distribution, and syndication inquiries, email programming@xzbn.net.We are proud to announce the we have launched TWATNews.com, launched in August 2025.TWATNews.com is an independent online news platform dedicated to uncovering the truth about Donald Trump and his ongoing influence in politics, business, and society. Unlike mainstream outlets that often sanitize, soften, or ignore stories that challenge Trump and his allies, TWATNews digs deeper to deliver hard-hitting articles, investigative features, and sharp commentary that mainstream media won't touch.These are stories and articles that you will not read anywhere else.Our mission is simple: to expose corruption, lies, and authoritarian tendencies while giving voice to the perspectives and evidence that are often marginalized or buried by corporate-controlled media

I’ve got a good one for you today my friend! Bill Hartman brings 35 years of experience, and more importantly, a totally unique way of thinking about rehab, performance, and movement. In our conversation, we take a deep dive into how he moved from standard, rule-based systems to a principle-driven framework called the UHP that […] The post Bill Hartman on Movement Models, Return to Play, and Playing the Probabilities appeared first on Robertson Training Systems.

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Sara Paretsky: author of the V.I. Warshawski Mysteries Sara Paretsky in 2019. Sara Paretsky, author of the V.I. Warshawski mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff as part of the “Probabilities” radio series, recorded in the KPFA s studio on March 16, 1991 following the publication of “Burn Marks” and before the publication of “Guardian Angel.” In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and Richard Wolinsky, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James. These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, have not been heard since the new century began. Until now. It is appropriate to begin this series of interviews with the first president of Sisters in Crime, Sara Paretsky, recorded March 16, 1991 while she was in the Bay Area for a mystery conference. At the time, six V.I. Warshawski novels had been published, and a film starring Kathleen Turner would be released a few months later. It would turn out to be the only time V.I. Warshawski stories were adapted for film or television.

As of July, 2026, Sara Paretsky has published 22 novels in the V.I. Warshawski mystery series, and two non-series novels, along with three short story collections and two works of nonfiction. The most recent V.I. novel, Pay Dirt, was published in 2024.   Ian Watson (1943-2025) Iconic Science Fiction and Fantasy Author Ian Watson. Photo: Glenn Hall. Wikipedia Commons Ian Watson (1943-2026), unconventional British science fiction and fantasy writer, who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program, recorded in Oakland at Westercon 40 on July 2, 1987. Ian Watson (1943-2026) who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, was an unconventional author whose works brimmed with ideas and philosophical turnings. Author of over thirty one novels, not including several written in the world created by the Warhammer 40,000 game, there were also eleven collections of short stories, plus a catalogue of poems. An avowed socialist, he also stood in elections as a Labour Party candidate in the days before Tony Blair. His novel, The Power, discussed in the interview, was published later in 1987, and can now be found, along with many of his novels, as Kindle book through Amazon. In early 1990, Ian Watson received a call from the assistant to legendary film-maker Stanley Kubrick to work on a science fiction film based on a story about a robot boy written by Brian Aldiss. For the next several months, he and Kubrick hammered out a screenplay treatment until Kubrick, in December of that year, said it was what he wanted, barring some changes, but shortly thereafter began work on what would be his final film, Eyes Wide Shut. Kubrick died on March f7, 1999 at the age of seventy. Shortly afterward, Steven Spielberg, using Watson's treatment, wrote a screenplay which became his film, A.I. Artificial Intelligence. You can find Ian Watson's essay about his work with Kubrick by going to this link. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on May 2, 2026. Sound quality (speed) is variable.   Review of “The Employee Dharma Handbook” at TheatreWorks Palo Alto through August 2, 2026.   The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – July 16, 2026: From the Archive: Sara Paretsky – Ian Watson appeared first on KPFA.

If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com  - Trump's Toll on the Strait of Hormuz (0:11) - Economic and Strategic Implications (4:36) - Trump's Delusional War Strategy (8:36) - The Futility of Trump's War Plans (11:55) - The Global Impact of Trump's War (44:09) - The Economic and Social Consequences of Trump's War (44:26) - The Legal and Political Challenges of Reforming the FDA (44:47) - The Role of the Courts in Reforming the FDA (45:07) - The Importance of Health Freedom (45:29) - The Legal Strategy of the Alliance for Natural Health (53:15) - The Broader Implications of Health Freedom (53:36) - Government Control and Public Access to Health Information (53:52) - Science, Probability, and Health Claims (1:28:23) - Challenges of Drug Safety vs. Natural Substances (1:31:40) - Impact of Chronic Disease on National Prosperity (1:36:34) - Health Freedom and Legal Battles (1:38:05) - After-Party Discussion on Health Freedom and AI Models (1:40:45) - Unincorporated Nonprofit Associations (UNAs) (1:48:38) - Self-Custody of AI Models (2:00:35) - Personal Stories and Lifestyle (2:06:10) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:

Today on The Gist, guest host Bob Garfield introduces the show's new format before diving into a special double-feature interview with science and tech author Steven Johnson. Blending conversations from 2018 and 2016, the episode deconstructs how humanity handles complex, long-term choices and how the simple pursuit of play and delight has secretly driven global history. Johnson breaks down the flaws of binary decision-making, the cognitive value of true group diversity, and how elite historical deliberations rely on tools like the to override tracking errors. Shifting to his book Wonderland, he flips the script on the idea that necessity is the mother of invention, tracing how luxury pursuits like Tyrian purple dye and rare spices accidentally mapped the globe, triggered international espionage, and birthed the modern capitalistic world. Produced by Corey Wara Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠thegist@mikepesca.com For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠sales@amplitudemediapartners.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Why do you keep returning to the same level after making progress? This episode explores human performance, identity, resistance, and the complacent zone. Backsliding Away There is a strange frustration that shows up when you know you are capable of more, but your life keeps snapping back into the same familiar pattern. You make progress. You build momentum. You get closer to the thing you said you wanted. Then something happens. The excuses return. The procrastination shows up. The old habits quietly reappear. Before long, you are back inside the same range you were trying to escape. That is what this episode is about. Not motivation. Not information. Not another strategy. This episode of the Warrior Mind Podcast looks at human performance through a deeper lens: why people keep returning to the same level even when they want something more. Episode Overview Human performance is not just about output. It is not simply about how hard you work, how much discipline you have, or how much potential you carry. Human performance is the expression of your physical capacity, mental clarity, emotional regulation, values, beliefs, and identity under real-world pressure. That last part matters. Because pressure reveals the truth. Anyone can feel capable when life is calm. Anyone can set goals when motivation is high. Anyone can say they want change when the discomfort of staying the same becomes strong enough. But the real test comes when you move close to a new level. That is where the old identity pushes back. That is where many people start returning to the same level. The Complacent Zone In this episode, I talk about what I call the complacent zone. This is the familiar operating range you live inside. It has a floor and a ceiling. The floor is your mental line of support. This is the point where things become uncomfortable enough that you finally take action. Maybe your weight gets too high. Maybe your energy gets too low. Maybe your relationship becomes too strained. Maybe your finances hit a point where you say, “Enough.” That line of support creates urgency. You act. You recommit. You start moving again. But then you approach the ceiling. That ceiling is your mental line of resistance. This is where things get interesting. Because the resistance usually does not look like resistance at first. It looks like being too busy. It looks like needing a break. It looks like losing interest. It looks like confusion, fear, frustration, procrastination, or sudden self-sabotage. But underneath all of that is something more powerful. Your identity is trying to keep you inside the range it recognizes. (function(d,s,id) { var js; var fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/1374258830.js"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, "script", "aweber-wjs-1506684634")); Why Returning to the Same Level Feels So Familiar Most people do not repeat patterns because they are weak. They repeat patterns because those patterns are familiar. The mind and body are always working with what has already been practiced. Your beliefs, emotions, values, past experiences, stories, environment, behaviors, and capabilities all help form the internal range you keep returning to. This is why progress can feel real without becoming permanent. You can lose weight and gain it back. You can save money and spend it again. You can build momentum and then quietly lose it. You can get close to the relationship, business, body, or life you want and still find yourself returning to the same level. From the outside, it may look like inconsistency. From the inside, it is often identity protection. The old self knows how to survive inside the old range. It does not always know how to live beyond it. Progress Is Not Always Change One of the strongest ideas in this episode is that movement is not the same as transformation. You may think you are making progress because you are moving upward again. But if you have already been at that level before, you may not be creating anything new. You may simply be recreating the past. That can be hard to admit. But it is also freeing. Because once you see the pattern clearly, you stop confusing short-term improvement with real change. Real change requires moving beyond the old ceiling and staying there long enough for that ceiling to become your new floor. That is the work. Not just breaking through once. Staying through. Probabilities vs. Possibilities Your current life is creating probabilities. Your past and present form a trajectory. If nothing changes beneath the surface, your future becomes fairly predictable. That does not mean it is fixed. It means your current identity system is already producing momentum. If you keep thinking the same way, choosing the same way, reacting the same way, training the same way, avoiding the same conversations, and tolerating the same internal limits, then returning to the same level becomes the most likely outcome. Possibility lives beyond the mental line of resistance. But possibility does not become real just because you can imagine it. Possibility becomes real when your behavior, beliefs, standards, and identity begin to align with that new level. That is where human performance changes. The Physical Side of Human Performance This is why physical challenge matters. The body exposes what the mind can hide. Put a man under a loaded barbell, on a steep trail, in a hard workout, or inside a physically demanding challenge, and his patterns show up quickly. Avoidance shows up. Excuses show up. Self-talk shows up. Emotional regulation shows up. The quality of discipline shows up. That is one reason training is such a powerful mirror. It does not just build strength. It reveals the identity behind the strength. A difficult workout can show you where you negotiate with yourself. A heavy lift can show you where you hesitate. Fatigue can reveal whether your standards are real or just convenient. Human performance is not separate from the body. The physical reveals the psychological. The Real Question Most people ask, “What am I capable of?” That is not a bad question. But it is not the deepest question. The better question is: Can your current identity carry the level of life you say you want? Because potential is not the problem for most people. Many people are carrying more capacity than they are expressing. They know more is possible. They can feel the unused strength, clarity, discipline, and purpose inside them. But potential alone does not change your life. Potential must be converted. Awareness must become action. Action must become practice. Practice must become identity. That is how returning to the same level stops. Key Takeaways From This Episode • Human performance is shaped by identity, not just effort. • The complacent zone is the familiar range between your mental line of support and mental line of resistance. • Your mental line of support is the internal floor that pushes you into action. • Your mental line of resistance is the internal ceiling where fear, excuses, procrastination, and sabotage tend to appear. • Backsliding is often the identity system pulling you back into the familiar. • Progress is not always transformation. Sometimes it is just the past repeating with new language. • Physical challenge reveals mental patterns faster than reflection alone. • Possibility becomes real only when it is practiced long enough to become your new probability. Reflection Questions Where do you keep returning to the same level? Where have you confused movement with real change? What goal have you approached before, only to pull back when it became unfamiliar? What excuses tend to show up near your mental line of resistance? What would have to shift in your identity for that old ceiling to become your new floor? These are not casual questions. They are performance questions. Because the next level of human performance is not found by collecting more information. It is found by identifying the internal range you keep living inside and expanding the identity that determines what you can actually sustain. Closing Thought If you keep returning to the same level, the answer is not always to push harder. Sometimes the answer is to look deeper. Not softer. Deeper. Look at the story. Look at the behavior. Look at the environment. Look at the emotional payoff of staying where you are. Look at the beliefs that keep making the familiar feel safe and the possible feel threatening. Because once you see the system, you can begin to change it. And once you change the system, human performance stops being random. It becomes aligned. Explore The Resilient Man Framework If this episode hit something real, the next step is to look at the structure underneath your performance. The Resilient Man Framework is designed to help you rebuild alignment across physical strength, mental clarity, emotional resilience, and meaningful purpose.

Jeremy Zakis warns of a 97% probability of a Super El Niño, predicting record-breaking heat and dangerous winds for Australia. This forecast necessitates early bushfire preparations, such as controlled burn-offs of undergrowth. The global impact includes severe drought in Africa and heavy winter precipitation in North America. (9)19522

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Sara Paretsky in 2019. Sara Paretsky, author of the V.I. Warshawski mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff as part of the “Probabilities” radio series, recorded in the KPFA s studio on March 16, 1991 following the publication of “Burn Marks” and before the publication of “Guardian Angel.” In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and Richard Wolinsky, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James. These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, have not been heard since the new century began. Until now. It is appropriate to begin this series of interviews with the first president of Sisters in Crime, Sara Paretsky, recorded March 16, 1991 while she was in the Bay Area for a mystery conference. At the time, six V.I. Warshawski novels had been published, and a film starring Kathleen Turner would be released a few months later. It would turn out to be the only time V.I. Warshawski stories were adapted for film or television.

As of July, 2026, Sara Paretsky has published 22 novels in the V.I. Warshawski mystery series, and two non-series novels, along with three short story collections and two works of nonfiction. The most recent V.I. novel, Pay Dirt, was published in 2024. The post Sisters in Crime: Sara Paretsky, The V.I. Warshawski mysteries, 1991 appeared first on KPFA.

Greg and Doug discuss why markets are stuck in a holding pattern despite a strong first half of the year. They break down the three catalysts investors should be watching, corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming midterm elections, while exploring how AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tensions are influencing inflation and interest rates. The episode wraps up with Wimbledon, the World Cup, The British Open, and the enduring greatness of Novak Djokovic and Lionel Messi. Key Takeaways [02:40] - Three catalysts that the market is looking for [05:12] - Probability of a rate hike + what the fallout would be [10:41] - The summer of European sports View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Does “tough on crime” actually work? Could Ban the Box policies backfire? Jen Doleac, PhD, is Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy maximizing evidence based policy & minimizing injustice. She is an economist & the author of The Science of Second Chances who prefers the reliable lens of data over personal values & has a particular interest in how measurable data can give rise to positive societal change.In this episode, she breaks down when prison actually works versus when it just creates more prisoners & walks through how the minefield of rules in probation may not prevent new crime in the way we think. You'll also hear the re-entry policies that worked vs flopped & the real life results from policies developed through data. If you liked this episode, you'll also like episode 195: ROUNDING UP SUSPICIOUS WOMEN? THE AMERICAN PLANGuest:Book: https://a.co/d/0aZzqCMt https://x.com/jenniferdoleac https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdoleac/ https://jenniferdoleac.comhttps://www.probablecausation.com/ Newsletter https://probablecausation.substack.com/arnoldventures.org Sponsors: https://www.historicpensacola.org/about-us/  2:44 Homicide is basically a coin flip4:36 Probability vs. severity of punishment5:56 The evidence against harsh sentencing8:15 Are we confusing retribution with safety?9:03 Digital crimes and the Undress Me app case12:10 Policymakers blocking unfavorable research14:47 "Tough on crime" politics vs. data24:11 DNA profiles vs. 23andMe: what's actually stored35:04 DUIs: breathalyzers and officer discretion37:56 South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety program40:43 Re-entry: Ban the Box backfires42:51 Hiring bias and insurance as a fix45:06 Rehabilitation certificates work47:24 Housing barriers and halfway house surprises49:16 Mental health gaps post-release50:14 Medicaid's inmate exclusion52:14 Reentry waivers and continuity of care54:43 Head Start, prevention, and crime58:15 Lead poisoning and the serial-killer hypothesis1:04:08 The four reasons we punish people1:06:10 Book, podcast, and what's next for JenRequest to join my private Facebook Group, MFR Curious Insiders: https://www.facebook.com/share/g/1BAt3bpwJC/Follow me in all the places:https://www.meredithforreal.com/  https://www.instagram.com/the_curiousintrovert/ meredith@meredithforreal.comhttps://www.youtube.com/meredithforreal https://www.facebook.com/curiousintrovert

A comprehensive update on the global electric vehicle (EV) market through the first half of 2026, highlighting a significant transition away from internal combustion engines. Tesla and SpaceX have announced a massive $25 billion semiconductor factory in Texas to secure the advanced chips necessary for future autonomous and robotic technologies. Despite broader economic challenges, Tesla is experiencing a robust sales recovery in Europe, marked by triple-digit growth in several key nations. Simultaneously, the Chinese automotive market has reached a historic turning point, with plug-in vehicles securing over 60% of monthly sales as traditional gas-powered car demand collapses. These reports collectively illustrate a world where EV manufacturers and startups are increasingly dominating the industry while legacy competitors struggle to adapt.

After a year of gambling I am none the wiser of understanding probabilities.In Episode #523 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: probabilities/gambling/arbitrage, how my brother first found ways to exploit betting promotions, using sports betting apps in conjunction with Polymarket, how markets set probabilities, whether AI will become genuinely better than humans at predicting future outcomes, complexity making exact prediction almost impossible and the future of livestreaming and personal data. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline:(00:00:00) Intro(00:02:33) How betting promotions can tilt the odds(00:05:52) Getting gubbed and the limits of beating bookies(00:07:28) Casino systems, card counting and roulette stories(00:12:29) Polymarket, lay bets and online arbitrage appeal(00:15:17) Bots, algorithmic trading and speed advantages(00:20:56) A human edge in clunky betting markets(00:23:04) Probability confusion and betting both sides(00:27:36) How do you build probabilities from scratch(00:35:52) Weather, complexity and what probability really means(00:43:58) Can AI actually predict the future(00:54:30) Why the betting edge disappears over time(00:57:15) Live data, streaming and future tech habits(01:03:26) AI music, data ownership and universal compute(01:09:04) Human judgement, long bets and future projects(01:15:22) Podcast updates, yoga training and closing notes Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBnTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Dave Brisbin 6.21.26 At the extremes, physical reality is utterly different than the world we perceive each day. Unlike our solar system with distinct planets neatly orbiting the sun, inside an atom, an electron doesn't orbit a nucleus, but has a form that can only be described as a cloud of probability. It doesn't orbit. It surrounds the nucleus like a fog. Quantumly speaking, electrons are in superposition. In this state, subatomic particles don't exist in any one place. There is only a certain probability of being here as opposed to there…until we interact with them, measure them. Then superposition collapses, and from our point of view, the particle is forced to “choose” a position. Before we interact, all positions and energy states are possible. Within the atom, the particle is everywhere and nowhere and yet always right herenow. Ancient Hebrews described God hovering over the moment of creation, a conscious interaction that collapsed the void into the positions of space, time, and matter—a version of reality we can observe and measure. They imagined God's presence as a pillar of cloud, right herenow among them, but without form that could be pinpointed or represented. And they were forbidden to try. They knew God is always in the cloud. We could add, in superposition, the probability of everywhere and nowhere. When we interact with an electron, force it out of the cloud, we imagine we can measure and understand it. But we are not seeing the electron in its natural state, as it is when no one is looking. When we interact with God, force God out of the cloud, we imagine a version of God we can measure, but it's no longer God we see, just a representation we can imagine. The extremes of the physical universe sit closer to eternity, showing us if we want to experience ultimate reality, God, as they really are, we can't force them out of the cloud. We enter the cloud ourselves. Raise our frequency till we inhabit the everywhere and nowhere of unwatched electrons. This is prayer as Jesus prayed—his only Way to the Father that we can also travel once we accept there is no form to measure, only the cloud to breathe.

Dave Brisbin 6.21.26 At the extremes, physical reality is utterly different than the world we perceive each day. Unlike our solar system with distinct planets neatly orbiting the sun, inside an atom, an electron doesn't orbit a nucleus, but has a form that can only be described as a cloud of probability. It doesn't orbit. It surrounds the nucleus like a fog. Quantumly speaking, electrons are in superposition. In this state, subatomic particles don't exist in any one place. There is only a certain probability of being here as opposed to there…until we interact with them, measure them. Then superposition collapses, and from our point of view, the particle is forced to “choose” a position. Before we interact, all positions and energy states are possible. Within the atom, the particle is everywhere and nowhere and yet always right herenow. Ancient Hebrews described God hovering over the moment of creation, a conscious interaction that collapsed the void into the positions of space, time, and matter—a version of reality we can observe and measure. They imagined God's presence as a pillar of cloud, right herenow among them, but without form that could be pinpointed or represented. And they were forbidden to try. They knew God is always in the cloud. We could add, in superposition, the probability of everywhere and nowhere. When we interact with an electron, force it out of the cloud, we imagine we can measure and understand it. But we are not seeing the electron in its natural state, as it is when no one is looking. When we interact with God, force God out of the cloud, we imagine a version of God we can measure, but it's no longer God we see, just a representation we can imagine. The extremes of the physical universe sit closer to eternity, showing us if we want to experience ultimate reality, God, as they really are, we can't force them out of the cloud. We enter the cloud ourselves. Raise our frequency till we inhabit the everywhere and nowhere of unwatched electrons. This is prayer as Jesus prayed—his only Way to the Father that we can also travel once we accept there is no form to measure, only the cloud to breathe.

Are you superstitious? Do you have a lucky charm? Or do you believe that everything in life is set up for you already so nothing is by chance? Maybe a bit of both?As we close out the NBA championships, celebrate Hamilton's first F1 win in Ferrari, and head into World Cup games, everyone's discussing luck these days. Whether it's Jordyn Woods' lucky purse or wearing the same underwear every game, we all have something we anchor onto. Besides controlling or hedging on within their control based on past experiences or logical reasoning, there is always a desire to influence the uncontrollable. Yet on the other hand, there are people who don't believe in chance or don't believe in controlling chance. For them, whatever is meant to happen can happen. As someone who is actively working on control issues, chance is something I struggle with often since people often tell me I'm very lucky. Today, let's click into that and see what that really entails.

We are live at Jimmy's ahead of USA vs Australia and we are already buzzing! Matt “Stretch” Johnson is in the seat next to Chuck and giving us all of the soccer knowledge. It's going to be a BIG day in Seattle! :30- Mariners Morning After The Mariners got a 3-0 win over the Orioles and a series win after Bryan Woo threw 7 shutout innings. :45- US star Christian Pulisic's status for today's match is still up in the air- how big of a deal is it if he's out? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're going to continue our look at IAS 37 in this episode - fantastic!We recap the three key conditions for recognising a provision, then move on to contingent assets, why prudence matters, and why you cannot simply net off a possible asset against a possible liability. I also bring in the important link with IFRS 3 and fair value, showing how a contingent liability can affect group accounts and goodwill even when it is not recognised in the subsidiary's own books.By listening to this episode, you will learn how to apply IAS 37 in exam-style situations, not just repeat the rules. I explain the difference between probability as a recognition issue under IAS 37 and as a measurement issue in group accounts. You will also learn how decommissioning provisions interact with PPE, why the provision must be discounted, and how both depreciation and the unwinding of the discount affect profit or loss. This is exactly the kind of application that helps you pick up marks in SBR.Thanks for listening to this episode of Pass Your SBR ACCA Exams with Tom Clendon.If you'd like to view the exam question on screen and see my working, subscribe to the YouTube Channel: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@tomclendonSBR⁠⁠.For access to on-demand support and guidance for your ACCA SBR Journey, visit my website to see my current course offering: ⁠⁠https://tomclendon.co.uk/⁠⁠.Chapters(00:00) Introduction to IAS 37 part two(01:25) Quick recap of the three provision criteria(02:11) What is a contingent asset?(03:11) Recognition rules and prudence(04:06) Why provisions and contingent assets are not netted off(04:53) Linking IAS 37 with IFRS 3 and fair value(06:45) Example: unfair dismissal claim(08:44) Group accounts: contingent liabilities and goodwill(12:01) Decommissioning provisions and PPE(14:48) The key issue: discounting the provision(16:21) Depreciation and unwinding the discount(17:03) Final exam-focused recap

Your Weekly UK Property Market Update

Aram, Peter and Fink react to Jeff Passan's Trade Deadline article for ESPN which details the highest probability trade candidates down to the lowest and who the best fits are. Intro: 0:40 Aroldis Chapman: 3:40Freddy Peralta: 11:16Luis Arraez: 19:15Tarik Skubal: 24:32Ryan Jeffers: 34:10Gleyber Torres: 40:25Coin Flip Trades: 46:00Longshot Trades: 57:00 All the Important Links! Join our Just Baseball Discord Just Baseball Merch! Subscribe to Our New Newsletter! Use Code "JUSTBASEBALL" when signing up on BetMGMSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ze is de laatste tijd weer wat meer binnen onze belevingswereld. Die ster in het midden van ons zonnestelsel, de zon. Elke dag voorziet deze zon ons van energie en warmte. Het maffe is echter dat er nog een heleboel niet bekend is over onze zon. In deze aflevering hoort u nieuwe inzichten op basis van een recent wetenschappelijk onderzoek.Investigating Pre-Flare Signatures in Spectroscopic Observations of an X9-Class Solar Flare:https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-026-02674-6Scientists find strange changes on sun hours before a powerful X9 solar flare: 'I was not expecting what I found':https://www.space.com/astronomy/sun/scientists-find-strange-changes-on-sun-hours-before-a-powerful-x9-solar-flare-i-was-not-expecting-what-i-foundUsing Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares:https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.03325v1Solar Dynamics Observatory:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Dynamics_ObservatoryCoronal mass ejection:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejectionDe Zimmerman en Space podcast is gelicenseerd onder een Creative Commons CC0 1.0 licentie.http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0

In this episode of Communicable, Emily McDonald and Josh Davis are joined by Roger Lewis (USA) and Ian Marschner (Australia) to compare and contrast Bayesian and frequentist statistical approaches. The panel discusses the fundamental principles of both methods, common misconceptions, and the extent to which they are often more similar than many realise. Together, they explore their use in clinical trial design, analysis, and reporting, including adaptive trials and sequential learning. Additional topics include sample size misconceptions, regulatory versus clinical thresholds, and the challenges of interpreting post hoc reanalyses of negative trials.This episode was edited by Kathryn Hostettler and the executive producer of Communicable is Angela Huttner.  Further reading:Berry SM, et al. Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series). Boca Raton (FL): CRC Press; 2010. FDA Guidance Document: Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological Products FDA, 2026, https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/use-bayesian-methodology-clinical-trials-drug-and-biological-productsLee TC, et al. Contextualizing the use of corticosteroids in severe Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia through a Bayesian lens. CMI Comms 2025, https://www.cmi-comms.org/article/S2950-5909(25)00082-4/fulltextLivingston EH and Lewis RJ. JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods, https://jamaevidence.mhmedical.com/Book.aspx?bookId=2742Marschner I. Confidence distributions for treatment effects in clinical trials: Posteriors without priors. Stat Med 2024, doi: 10.1002/sim.10000.Whitehead J. The design and analysis of sequential clinical trials. Revised 2nd ed. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons; 1997.

The Government is pushing ahead with plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in New Zealand as a security buffer for when locally-made, renewable energy sources dry up. Reporter Whena Owen travels to Taranaki, the proposed site of the facility, to ask residents how they feel about having LNG in their backyard. Join Jack Tame and the Q+A team and find the answers to the questions that matter. Made with the support of NZ on Air.

Welcome to IDEA Collider. In this episode, host Dr. Alex Gray, Chief Medical and Innovation Officer at IDEA Pharma, is joined by colleague Jacqueline Poot, President of Strategic Consulting and Analytics, to discuss the intricacies of pharmaceutical portfolio strategy.  This episode has accompanying slides that can be found on YouTube https://youtu.be/DKdy_MShWBA They tackle the growing view that the pharmaceutical industry doesn't just have a science problem; it has an execution problem. Alex breaks down how human biases, such as confirmation bias and champion bias, can derail clinical development and lead to poor portfolio choices. They emphasize that stopping a failing project early is just as critical to an organization's overall success as advancing a good one.  The episode explores successful decision-making frameworks from top-performing companies, analyzing how AstraZeneca's 5Rs framework reversed late-stage failures and examining structured matrices such as Roche's RAVE, Amgen's RAVE, and Pfizer's DICE. Alex also highlights Eli Lilly's highly successful Chorus unit and their use of AI to drive objective resource allocation. Tune in to hear why relying solely on standard Probability of Technical Success (PTS) models or Risk-Adjusted NPV is flawed, how operational issues drive numerous Phase 3 failures, and the incremental but powerful role machine learning will play in the next generation of drug development.

Today on this edition of the Zone 103 Technology Lab Shorts is the Decrete Probability Mania.Recorded 3/28/2026

Today on this edition of the Zone 103 Math Lab Shorts is the Decrete Probability ManiaRecorded 3/21/2026

We're podcasting per the launch of the World Cup-tracking Probability Cup, but of course, just had to talk about Wednesday night's NBA Finals classic. The BIG question on my mind: Should predictors/gamblers price in the NBA's massive incentive to make this great series continue? Topics!* Knicks–Spurs Finals comeback analysis and whether San Antonio collapsed or New York surged.* How teams should manage volatility differently when protecting large leads versus playing from behind.* Debate over NBA referee incentives, league interests, and the possibility of series-extension bias.* SportsPredict's World Cup Probability Cup and using prediction contests to identify analytical talent.* Whether modern hiring should adopt a “Moneyball” approach by measuring forecasting skill instead of relying on traditional credentials.* Is the big money in studying idiot sports predictors or geniuses?Again, join our Probability Cup contest and perhaps win an iPad Pro ($1,000 value) or $200 Ticketmaster gift card. Accept the challenge and learn more at sportspredict.com/probabilitycup.House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of our show, Captain Ingle and I set a course for the 24th century and Federation station Deep Space 9. After discovering that he was illegally genetically augmented by his parents, Doctor Bashir meets with a group of fellow augments to give them a sense that someone who has been thus modified can live a normal life in The United Federation of Planets. Join us as we go boldly!

Check out the show on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpooeG6v2Bk&list=PLzlOUy5O5WpfrW07p50dtK55vnb7CcK1h&pp=sAgCRepentance on Stream #178 (06/18/2021)(00:00) Melons and Manufactured Outrage(07:48) Statistics and Probability(15:23) Drinking Habits(20:06) Regional Foods(29:54) Spoilers and Childhood MoviesRepentance on Stream #179 (06/19/2021)(40:42) Crypto and NFTs(52:01) Customer Service Interactions

George travels to South America to investigate a sure-fire gambling system at a casino called "Caesar's." Unfortunately, the man who invented the system has been murdered and his formula is missing! - Originally aired September 29, 1952

This week we are getting nerdy as we explore one of the most fascinating and often overlooked aspects of Human Design: Perspective. As the world feels increasingly overwhelming and attention is pulled in countless directions, understanding your unique Perspective can help reduce mental anxiety, create healthier filters around information, and bring you back into alignment. We dive into the six Human Design Perspectives—Survival, Possibility, Power, Wanting, Probability, and Personal—and explain how each one offers a unique lens for observing the world. You'll learn why you're designed to focus on a specific aspect of life and how embracing your natural Perspective can help you feel more grounded, empowered, and mentally clear.   Key Takeaways: Why mental overwhelm often comes from trying to see and process everything instead of honoring your natural Perspective. How your Perspective reveals the unique way your mind is designed to observe the world and offer valuable insights. How each of the six Perspectives has a specific area of genius—from seeing possibilities and probabilities to understanding power dynamics, survival needs, personal impact, and human fulfillment. Why understanding your Perspective can help you create healthier boundaries around media consumption and information overload. Why trusting the observations you're naturally designed to make can help reduce anxiety and allow you to contribute your unique wisdom to the collective.   Free Mini-Courses!: FREE Transits & The Harmonic Gate Mini-Course FREE Human Design Readings 101 Masterclass Join us in Your Human Design Besties! Get our book: Your Human Design! Online Human Design Reader Training 64 Gates & Gene Keys Training Future trainings and Retreats can be found on daylunalife.com Instagram: @‌d.a.y.l.u.n.a    

In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier speaks with Peter Nakada, Chief Education Officer at Stone Ridge Asset Management, about alternative investments and the role they can play in building more resilient retirement portfolios. They examine why traditional portfolios are often overly dependent on corporate profits and interest rates, and how “true alternatives” like reinsurance may provide diversification benefits that traditional alternatives cannot. Peter explains catastrophe bonds, quota shares, risk premiums, and the behavioral challenges investors face when allocating to alternative asset classes during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.    Topics covered:  Why traditional portfolios may be overly tied to stocks and bonds The difference between traditional alternatives and “true alternatives” How reinsurance works and why it exists Understanding catastrophe bonds and quota shares Natural disaster risk as an investable risk premium Hard and soft insurance markets and how pricing adjusts after losses Why reinsurance may help improve portfolio resilience in retirement Expected return assumptions for reinsurance strategies Portfolio allocation considerations for alternative investments Behavioral challenges investors face during periods of natural disasters Probability biases and investor psychology in alternative asset classes Why staying invested through market cycles matters    Useful Links:    Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/  TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/  Peter Nakada on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-nakada  Stone Ridge: https://www.stoneridgeam.com/  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) 

ServiceNow is down almost while the market sits at all-time highs. That kind of divergence is exactly what options traders look for. The trade: buy one 110 put, sell three 100 puts for a net credit of $190. That structure gives you a break-even near $95, right where the stock was trading just a few weeks ago. Probability of profit sits at 86% and theta decay runs at $10 a day. The only catch is buying power this one uses about $7,600. But buying a 75 put as a wing brings that down under $3,000 with almost no impact on the credit or the probability.

Most people think they have a financial plan. But when you ask what that plan actually is, the answer is usually: "Some mutual funds, ETFs, a broker… and hopefully retirement works out." That is not a financial plan. Today, on Financial Detox, Jason and Alex break down the massive difference between simply owning investments and having a true, interactive financial plan designed around your life, taxes, spending, goals, and long-term decision-making. You'll see how real planning works: Modeling lifetime income and spending Stress testing for volatility and inflation Analyzing taxes and future cash flow Testing retirement scenarios in real time Creating clarity around what you can actually afford The goal is not just portfolio growth. The goal is freedom, confidence, and the ability to make decisions without fear. What we cover in this episode:

Justin Spillers, founder of Real Estate Alpha, reveals how a decade of disciplined strategy paved his path to dominating Ohio's multifamily market from building a proprietary property database to mastering broker relationships and innovative outreach tactics. Imagine never missing a prime opportunity because your data is 90% accurate, and you're always top of mind with owners and brokers. Justin shares the exact methods that deliver high-conversion outreach: personalized video mailers, creative direct-owner campaigns, and the power of consistent follow-up. You'll discover how meticulous data scrubbing, the right CRM tools, and AI-enhanced processes keep his pipeline overflowing even in slow markets. Justin Spillers Partner & Manager of Real Estate Alpha Based in: Minster, Ohio Where to find them: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinspillers/ realestatealpha.io/ Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit https://malabarhillcapital.com/ for more info. Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we are joined for the 4th time by physicist Sam Kuypers. From his Conjecture Institute profile: “Quantum physicist, interested in foundational questions. In his research, published in reputable scientific journals, he explores the quantum theory of time, the many-worlds interpretation, and locality.”We discuss: Is probability theory true? Is it useful? What is the connection between probability theory and physics? Does the many worlds interpretation make probability theory more true or less true?⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Dear sir Philadelphia June 1. 1776 Your favours of May 14. and 22d. are now before me. The first I shewed to Mr. Morris, as soon as I received it. The last contains Intelligence, from Hallifax of the Streights to which our Enemies are reduced, which I was very glad to learn. I am very happy to learn from you and some other of my Friends that Boston is securely fortified; but still I cannot be fully satisfied untill I hear that every unfriendly Flagg is chased out of that Harbour. Cape Ann, I am sensible is a most important Post, and if the Enemy should possess themselves of it, they might distress the Trade of the Colony to a great Degree. For which Reason I am determined to do every Thing in my Power to get it fortified at the Continental Expence. I cant be confident that I shall succeed but it shall not be my Fault if I dont. I am very glad you gave me your Opinion of the Utility of that Harbour and of the Practicability of making it secure, because I was not enough acquainted with it before to speak with Precision about it. Your Observations upon the oppressive severity of the old Regulations of Trade in subjecting Ships and Cargoes to Confiscation for the Indiscretion of a Master or Mariner, and upon the Artifice and Corruption which was introduced respecting Hospital Money, are very just: But if you consider the Resolution of Congress, and that of Virginia of the 15th. of May, the Resolutions of the two Carolinas and Georgia, each of which Colonies, are instituting new Governments, under the Authority of the People; if you consider what is doing at New York, New Jersey, Pensilvania, and even in Maryland, which are all gradually forming themselves into order to follow the Colonies to the Northward and Southward, together with the Treaties with Hesse, Brunswick and Waldeck and the Answer to the Mayor &c. of London; I believe you will be convinced that there is little Probability 2of our ever again coming under the Yoke of British Regulations of Trade. The Cords which connected the two Countries are cutt asunder, and it will not be easy to splice them again, together. I agree with you, in sentiment, that there will be little Difficulty in Trading with France and Spain, a great deal in dealing with Portugal, and some with Holland. Yet by very good Intelligence I am convinced, that there are great Merchants in the United Provinces and even in Amsterdam, who will contract to supply you with any Thing you want, whether Merchandize or military Stores by the Way of Nieuport and Ostend, two Towns which are subject to the Empress of Austria, who has never taken any public Notice of the Dispute between Britain and Us, and has never prohibited her Subjects from supplying us with any Thing. There is a Gentleman, now in this City, a Native of it, and a very worthy Man who has been lately in those Towns as well as Amsterdam, who informs me that he had many Conversations there, with Merchants of figure, and that they assured him they should be glad to contract to furnish us with any Supplies, even upon Credit, for an Interest of four Per Cent.1 Other Intelligence to the same Purpose, with Additions of more Importance, has been sent here. But the Particulars may not be mentioned. Europe seems to be in a great Commotion; altho the Appearance of a perfect Calm is affected, I think this American Contest will light up a general War. What it will end in, God alone knows, to whose wise and righteous Providence I chearfully submit, and am with great Esteem and Respect for the Family, your Friend & servant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Magick is not what you think it is. Strip away every movie, every Halloween costume, every Satanic Panic TV special from the 80s, and what you're left with is a probability engineering technology that has been systematically kept from public knowledge for at least three thousand years. Not because it doesn't work. Because it does. And a technology that works — that gives the practitioner a genuine advantage in shaping outcomes — is the last thing a ruling class shares with the people it rules.Thanks to the TIN FOIL MULISHAExclusive episodes on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/c/ufonopodcastJoin the Tin Foil Mulisha Discord:⁠ https://discord.gg/PQyaJzkt4Y⁠Paypal Donation ⁠https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/Y6WRSW9F2JBSCStripe Donation https://buy.stripe.com/aFa6oGeiXamjdlW39HgUM00Buy Merch⁠ https://ufono.dashery.com/ | https://ufono-podcast.creator-spring.com/Buy Mushrooms⁠ https://www.schedule35.co/us/ (Code: U1173687US240607)⁠Email: Iwant2believe115@gmail.com

In today's episode, I talk about the Steelers' potential interest in Brendan Sorsby and then explore Antonio Brown and a potential HOF bid in 2027. Make sure to follow us on all platforms to keep listening to our Steelers analysis! Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2X4xxKryrcuQowgv61L0X1 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleav-in-steelers/id1485137299 iHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-bleav-in-steelers-52369965/ TuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Podcasts/Bleav-in-Steelers-p1264828/?topicId=545505812 Jack's X: https://x.com/imjackonthecall Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

https://teachhoops.com/ If you want to build a team that can survive a late-game run, you have to stop being a "Joystick Coach." When you control every movement from the sideline, you are building a team that is (1)__________ rather than (2)__________. A championship program is built on the belief that the coach's job is to prepare the mind, while the player's job is to (3)__________ the moment. The "Zero-Second" Rule: Players should know their next move (4)__________ they catch the ball. This reduces mental (5)__________ and keeps the defense in a constant state of recovery. Constraints-Led Training: Instead of running "dry" 5-on-0 sets, use (6)__________ games to force players to solve problems in real-time. If you want them to make better decisions, you must increase the (7)__________ of those decisions in every practice. The "V" Word: To truly let players lead, a coach must practice (8)__________. This means allowing a turnover to happen in June so that the player has the (9)__________ to fix it in January. Next Play Speed: The most important decision a player makes is how they respond to a (10)__________. A player-led team has zero (11)__________ after a whistle. Dependent: If they always look at the bench for the play, they can't adapt to the flow of the game. Autonomous: You want "thinkers" who can solve puzzles without a timeout. Execute: The plan is yours; the execution is theirs. Before: This is the hallmark of high-IQ basketball. Friction: Indecision is the enemy of $eFG%$. Small-Sided: 2v2 and 3v3 drills create more "touches" and "choices" per minute. Rep Density: Don't just count shots; count the number of decisions made. Vulnerability: You have to be okay with "ugly" practices where learning is actually happening. Experience: Knowledge is what you read; experience is what you do when things go wrong. Mistake: The "Next Play" is always the most important one. Hang-Time: Eliminate the emotional baggage that slows down transition. When you let players make decisions, you are moving from Transactional Coaching (do this to get that) to Transformational Coaching (becoming the type of person who knows what to do). The PhilosophyThe Worksheet for CoachesThe Coach's Master KeyWhy This MattersStageThe Coach's RoleThe Player's RolePreparationDesigns the "Constraints" and the "Standard."Studies the "Why" and masters the skill.Live ActionObserves and takes notes for the "Truth Room."Makes "Zero-Second" decisions based on the read.The DebriefAsks: "What did you see on that play?"Reflects on the "Probability" of that choice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episode: 1577 The Monty Hall Problem and the unexpected value of information.  Today, we learn not to turn our back on information.

MSE host Bill Powers applies Howard Marks' January 2020 memo “You Bet” to junior mining speculation, emphasizing that decision quality and outcomes aren't the same because both luck and process drive results. Drawing on Annie Duke's book “Thinking in Bets,” Powers urges probabilistic thinking, accurate assessment of one's own skills and being comfortable uncertainty. Marks' framework distinguishes games by hidden information, luck, and skill. Powers argues junior resource markets are less efficient “alpha markets” where skill does matter. A key lesson is evaluating the “proposition” (odds relative to the price) rather than just picking the “favorite” or “best.” Action items: read the memo, read Duke's book, and audit recent investments for accurate proposition identification and probabilistic reasoning. 00:00 Mindset Reset 00:31 Howard Marks Memo 02:10 Process Not Outcome 04:34 Thinking in Bets 06:16 Games Luck Skill 08:19 Alpha Markets Edge 09:06 The Proposition 12:02 Nifty Fifty Junk Bonds 14:14 Eight Gambling Lessons 19:57 Second Level Thinking 20:27 Action Items Howard Mark's “You Bet” memo: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/you-bet.pdf?sfvrsn=785dbe65_8 Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets”: https://www.annieduke.com/books/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Bill Powers is not a licensed financial advisor. Mining Stock Education offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

The road to Sorare 27 is officially here, but a major question mark is hanging over the market: Will the platform's biggest spenders actually buy in again? In today's episode of Sorare with Laird, I'm joined by  @HarryTrades  to tackle the reality that many high-volume, high-spend managers are considering pulling back their budgets for the upcoming 2026/27 transition. In this livestream, we discuss:• The Probability of a Spend Strike: Why "whales" and high-budget managers are hesitating on Sorare 27.• The Market Ripple Effects: What happens to gallery values, liquidity, and card utility if the top end of the market stops buying?• The Catalyst for Change: The specific structural, competition, and reward issues driving this sentiment. • How Sorare Fixes This: What the product team needs to do right now to win back the confidence of higher spenders.Drop your thoughts in the live chat—are you planning to spend more, less, or the same for Sorare 27?Support the content by joining the Laird Social Club on Patreon: https://patreon.com/andrewmlairdJoin the Harry Trades YouTube community: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8HSj8vZDHSGmk5yP46SjtQ/membership⚽️ Become a Sorare manager today: https://sorare.pxf.io/WyLBnZ

The Parent Playbook: Navigating the "Sideline Culture" https://teachhoops.com/ In a 30-year coaching career, you learn that you aren't just coaching the 15 players on your roster; you are managing a 45-person ecosystem that includes parents, guardians, and extended "inner circles." Navigating parent behaviors is less about "conflict resolution" and more about Environmental Design. Most parent friction occurs in the Information Vacuum—the space between what you see in the gym every day and what the parent hopes for at the dinner table. To build a championship culture, you must be the Chief Transparency Officer, ensuring that the "Standard" is so clearly communicated that there is no room for a counter-narrative to grow. The greatest tool in your belt is the Mandatory Buffer. Emotions are highest in the 15 minutes following a tough loss. The Standard: No parent-coach communication regarding game strategy or playing time until 24 hours have passed. The Protocol: Require that all concerns be addressed via a scheduled meeting rather than a "sideline ambush." This moves the conversation from the emotional (the heat of the game) to the logical (the film and the data). As we often discuss in the world of analytics, "The numbers don't have feelings." When a parent challenges playing time, move the conversation away from "opinion" and toward Objective Efficiency. The "Truth Room" Metrics: If a player is struggling with their Effective Field Goal Percentage ($eFG%$) or has a high turnover rate in transition, show the data. The Probability of Success: Use the stats to explain the "Why." For example: "Our team's defensive rating improves by $12%$ when we have this specific rotation on the floor." It is very difficult to argue with a $95%$ confidence interval. Parent anxiety usually stems from a lack of Role Definition. If a player thinks they are a "Green Light" shooter but the coach sees them as a "Defensive Specialist," the parent is caught in the middle. The Solution: Conduct mid-season "Role Reviews." Give the player (and by extension, the parent) a clear list of the three things they must do to earn more minutes. The Transformation: You shift the parent from being a "Critic" of your decisions to being a "Partner" in their child's development. They now know exactly what "success" looks like in your system. You cannot coach a kid hard if you haven't made a deposit into their parent's Trust Account. The Strategy: Make it a point to send a "Positive Pulse" text or email to a parent when their child does something that doesn't show up in the box score—diving for a loose ball, cheering for a teammate, or showing "Next Play" speed after an error. The Impact: When you eventually have to have a "Hard Truth" conversation about playing time, the parent listens because they know you see the whole child, not just the stat line. Navigating parent behaviors in sports, basketball coaching communication, parent-coach partnership, team culture, high school basketball, youth sports leadership, "The Villanova Way," Jay Wright coaching, basketball analytics, $eFG%$, role clarity in basketball, athletic leadership, program building, coach development, mental toughness, leadership standards, coach unplugged, teach hoops. Show Notes1. The "24-Hour Rule" and the Communication Protocol2. Using Data as a Shield3. The "Role Clarity" AuditThe Behavior Matrix: Challenge vs. StrategyParent BehaviorThe "Root Cause"The Collaborative FixThe "Sideline Coach"Lack of trust in the system.Invite them to a "Open Practice" to see the tactical "Why."The "Minutes Counter"Focus on individual vs. team.Share the $VORP$ (Value Over Replacement) data in private.The "Silent Sulker"Perceived disrespect to the child.The "Active Reach"—spend 2 minutes talking about non-hoops life.The "Culture Leader"High buy-in and energy.Empower them to lead the "Parent Council" or team meals.4. The "Relational Capital" DepositSEO Keywords Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

May 4, 2026 - Season 16, Episode 131 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the expectations for the annual releasing of the regular season schedule and how we might be waiting two more weeks for that event to transpire. Alex has recently completed profiles on two of the undrafted free agents recently signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Laith Marjan and DT Kevin Jobity Jr., so on the heels of those being published, we discuss what he learned about both players. Now that we have fully looked at and learned a lot about each of the members of the Steelers 2026 draft class, Alex and I give our expectations for each player when it comes to their rookie seasons. We spend a lot of time talking about QB Drew Allar and KR/WR Kaden Wetjen during this segment as well. With there being a lot of talk right now about the Steelers potentially signing OLB Nick Herbig to a contract extension this offseason, Alex and I discuss how it might be in his best interest to bet on himself in 2026. We look at a few comparable players and contracts related to Herbig at this point in the offseason as we attempt to find a target market price for him that he and the Steelers might be willing to move forward with in the coming weeks and months. This 113-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap above and we end this show by answering a few emails we have received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode: 1564 The Second Law of Thermodynamics and time's arrow.  Today, we see why time goes only from then to now.

Get access to the 2026 NFL Draft/Rookie Guide for FREE from Chad Parsons (and a VIP Chat with the best dynasty owners on the planet) by signing up as an All-Pro at www.Patreon.com/UTH. Thanks for listening, and keep building those dynasties! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is retirement researcher Wade Pfau. Wade is the founder of Retirement Researcher, an educational resource on retirement planning for individuals and financial advisors. He's co-founder of the Retirement Income Style Awareness Tool and a co-host of the Retire With Style podcast. He's a professor of practice at the American College of Financial Services and a research fellow with the Limra Retirement Income Institute. And he's also a principal and director of retirement research for McLean Asset Management. Wade has written several books, including his most recent, a third edition of his Retirement Planning Guidebook. He holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He's also a chartered financial analyst. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Updates to the Retirement Planning Guidebook 00:00:29 Do Retirees Today Have a Stronger Starting Spending Rate? 00:04:03 Asset Allocation, Annuities, and Target-Date Funds 00:08:11 Retirement Income Styles 00:15:07 Non-US Safe Withdrawal Rates and Flexible Spending Strategies 00:23:55 Probability of Success and Estimating Longevity 00:27:47 Underspending, Organic Income, and Mortgage Payoff 00:35:46 Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone 00:39:20 Equity Glide Paths, Sequence Risk, and Delaying Social Security 00:46:43 Annuities: Private Equity Concerns and Due Diligence More Retirement Research From Wade Pfau Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path More From Morningstar What's Your Retirement Income Style? 8 Reasons You Might Need to Tweak Your Portfolio Wade Pfau: The Risks of Retirement Today If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine's weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.