Podcasts about Probability

Today we are joined by physicist and philosopher Emily Adlam for her first appearance on Theories of Everything to challenge one of the deepest assumptions in science: that time flows. In this thought-provoking conversation, Adlam presents her “all-at-once” view of physics, where the universe is more like a completed Sudoku puzzle than a film playing forward. We explore the measurement problem in quantum mechanics, the role of the observer, the illusion of causality, and why these foundational questions demand both philosophical clarity and scientific precision. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Links Mentioned: •⁠ ⁠Emily's profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Emily-Adlam •⁠ ⁠Spooky Action at a Temporal Distance (paper): https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7512241/pdf/entropy-20-00041.pdf •⁠ ⁠Quantum Field Theory and the Limits of Reductionism (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.20457 •⁠ ⁠Two Roads of Retrocausality (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.12934 •⁠ ⁠Taxonomy for Physics Beyond Quantum Mechanics (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.12293 •⁠ ⁠Strong Determinism (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.02886 •⁠ ⁠Carlo Rovelli on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF4SAketEHY •⁠ ⁠Stephen Wolfram on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YRlQQw0d-4 •⁠ ⁠Emily interviewed about Nonlocality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR7aPlZg7dE&ab_channel=GeorgeMusser •⁠ ⁠Tim Palmer on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlklA6jsS8A •⁠ ⁠Tim Maudlin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU1bs5o3nss •⁠ ⁠Algorithmic Randomness and Probabilistic Laws (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.01411 •⁠ ⁠Governing Without a Fundamental Direction of Time (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.09226 •⁠ ⁠Matt Segal on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeTm4fSXpbM •⁠ ⁠Jacob Barandes on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oWip00iXbo&list=PLZ7ikzmc6zlN6E8KrxcYCWQIHg2tfkqvR&index=33 •⁠ ⁠Sabine Hossenfelder on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3y-Z0pgupg&t=1s •⁠ ⁠Bernardo Kastrup and Sabine on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJmBmopxc1k&t=755s&ab_channel=CurtJaimungal •⁠ ⁠Sean Carroll on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AoRxtYZrZo Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:56 Observers in Quantum Mechanics 02:15 The Measurement Problem 06:23 Dogmas in Quantum Foundations 08:24 Causation and Its Philosophical Implications 09:12 The Arrow of Time and Its Mysteries 10:28 Exploring Coarse Graining and Reductionism 13:21 Non-Locality: Temporal vs. Spatial 16:06 The Nature of Non-Locality 19:34 Temporal Non-Locality and Its Implications 21:51 Retrocausality: The All-at-Once Perspective 26:25 The Measurement Problem and All-at-Once Framework 28:24 Observer-Centric Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics 31:29 Probabilities in Physics 32:51 The Process Matrix and Causal Structures 38:33 Foundations of Physics and Philosophy 1:05:16 The Emergence of Space-Time 1:08:11 Exploring Correlations in Physical Parameters 1:10:44 Epistemology of the Measurement Problem 1:13:26 Lessons in Patience and Persistence Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a textOn this podcast I cover the recent volatility in the market. We discuss everything including today's market moves as they occured. Among the topics covered:The recent market volatility and the reasons behind it.The impact of tariff policy on markets, the economy, and global tradeA broad look at performance beyond just the S&P 500. This includes International and Emerging Equity Markets, Real Assets, Core Bond and High Yield Bond Markets.The benefits of diversification year-to-date.Probability of loss across a range of asset allocation strategies.The notion of buying opportunistically during market pullbacks. Does it make sense? If so, for who?Fed policy going forward and the impact on interest rates.How to think about long-term financial planning during periods of volatility.The impact of market timing during periods of capital markets stress.I was joined by Roosevelt Bowman, a Senior Investment Strategist at Bernstein. Many of you know Roosevelt. This episode is a replay of a client webinar from April 10, 2025.  With any questions or comments, or to discuss your own financial situation, I can be reached at marc.penziner@bernstein.com or 212-969-6655.The information presented and opinions expressed are solely the views of the podcast host commentator and their guest speaker(s).  AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this podcast. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein.

Alvarez Mendoza v. Bondi, No. 24-1112 (1st Cir. Mar. 31, 2025)cooperators against MS-13; Henriquez-Rivas; persecution in the U.S.; Matter of H-L-S-A-; social distinction and ocular visibility; El Salvador  United States v. Cervenak, No. 23-3466 (6th Cir. Apr. 2, 2025) (en banc) crime of violence; realistic probability test; robbery in violation of Ohio Rev. Code § 2911.02 Mathin v. Mayorkas, 746 F. Supp. 3d 1327 (M.D. Fla. Aug. 16, 2024)naturalization review; INA § 310(c); warrant of arrest; statutory interpretation; declaratory reliefSafe Passage Project:www.safepassageproject.orgSponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.Cerenade"Leader in providing smart, secure, and intuitive cloud-based solutions"Click me!The Pen & Sword College (formerly The Clinic at Sharma-Crawford Attorneys at Law) Use Promo Code: ImmReview2025Link to Nonprofit: https://thepen-and-swordkc.org/ Link to books:https://www.rekhasharmacrawford.com/ Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me!Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerDISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

In this insightful episode, Dr. Elizabeth McIngvale and Cali Werner are joined by Dr. Jon Grayson, a psychologist with over 40 years of experience treating OCD and anxiety. Together, they discuss the critical role of uncertainty in anxiety disorders, the importance of acceptance, and why coping doesn't always feel good—but it's essential. From practical tools for embracing discomfort to mindfulness strategies that empower, this conversation offers a compassionate and realistic perspective on living with anxiety.Key Points:[0:00] - Introduction to Dr. Jon GraysonDr. Grayson's 40+ years of expertise, his acclaimed book, Freedom from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, and his groundbreaking work in OCD treatment.[8:00] - What OCD Teaches Us About AnxietyThe parallels between OCD and general anxiety: how uncertainty underpins them both and why facing fears matters for everyone.[18:30] - Language Matters: “I Can't” vs. “I Choose Not To”Dr. Grayson explains the importance of reframing how we talk about avoidance and the empowering impact of this subtle shift.[27:45] - Acceptance Isn't BlissWhy “acceptance sucks,” and how learning to sit with discomfort is key to moving forward in life—without avoiding or overcompensating.[36:00] - Mindfulness in Practice: Coping Through AwarenessPractical examples of mindfulness as “doing two things at once” and finding moments of joy even amidst anxiety.[43:20] - Uncertainty and Probability in Everyday LifeUnderstanding how low-probability events drive anxiety and how to resist the urge to control the uncontrollable.Quotable Moments:[19:15] “When you say ‘I can't,' you rob yourself of power. ‘I'm choosing not to' gives you back control.”—Dr. Jon Grayson[28:05] “Acceptance sucks. It's not fun or blissful, but it's the only way forward.”—Dr. Jon Grayson[37:50] “You can feel anxious and still enjoy moments of your life. It doesn't have to be one or the other.”—Dr. Jon GraysonLinks Mentioned: • Freedom from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder by Dr. Jon Grayson: https://www.amazon.com/dp/042527389X?ref_=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cp_ud_dp_A54KYSKW8CEWR1DJ6G40 • OCD Institute of Texas: www.ocditexas.com • Anxiety Society Podcast Website: www.anxietysocietypodcast.comDr. Grayson's conversation is a reminder that while uncertainty is unavoidable, we don't have to be controlled by it. By reframing how we think about avoidance, embracing mindfulness, and accepting discomfort, we can learn to live fuller, more meaningful lives. Don't forget to subscribe, and share this episode with someone who might benefit from these empowering insights

Are markets close to a short-term bottom? The response to the unexpected magnitude of tariffs creates pain and anxiety, as markets reprice valuations and trade negotiations begin. Some markets suspend short-selling; US markets are over-sold; bonds are doing well; the Fed is expected to cut rates five times. Lance discusses markets' hope and fear (charts); lessons investors can learn from the Coog's vs Duke (Lance's wife is not amused). Wall Street will find a narrative to rally markets, and then sell. A look at our Fear/Greed indicator (and how it differs from others'); probabilities vs possibilities, the risk range report. Looking for a reflex rally now; what we're going to do. SEG-1: Markets Respond to Tariffs SEG-2: Markets' Hope & Fear SEG-3: Coogs vs Duke: Dealing with the Unexpected SEG-4: Probabilities & Possibilities Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUFhH72D1T4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-liberation-day-tariffs-crash-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Fishing for a Bottom," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPQ16u0rgr0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will Tariff Turmoil Cause Retirement Revisions?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJXH8JLD6Fg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2329s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCrash2025 #FearAndFinance #InvestingInUncertainty #FinancialCrisis #HopeInTheCrash #EarningsImpact #TariffEffect #MarketAnalysis #InvestorInsight #TradeWar2025 #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

We run through the Monte Carlo simulation and how you can use it to understand how asset allocation and other variables in your portfolio will determine the longevity of your retirement portfolio. You can use these outcomes to improve your retirement outcomes.You can find the Monte Carlo simulator here.You can read Mark's full article here.To submit any questions or feedback, please email mark.lamonica1@morningstar.com or leave us a voicemail to feature on the podcast here.Additional resources from our episodes are available via our website.Audio Producer and mixer: William Ton. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders believes markets did not price in the extremes seen in Wednesday's tariff announcement. She talks about the probability of the recent correction morphing into a bear market as forward-looking growth remains questionable in the U.S. With domestic weakness top-of-mind, Liz Ann notes a recent shift to international stocks as one that can gain traction. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Feeling the ups and downs of the stock market?

Sponsored by Pepperstone Trading isn't about certainty - it's about stacking the odds. In this episode, I break down the subtle art of improving trade outcomes by adjusting key variables like probability of success and risk-reward. I explore how small tweaks in things like context, time of day, market structure, and trade location can quietly tilt the edge in our favour. If you've ever wondered why the same setup works brilliantly one day and fails the next… this is the episode for you.

In preparation for our discussion of "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" by John Ioannidis from 2005, we read a very similar paper published 40 years earlier: Neher, A. (1967). Probability Pyramiding, Research Error and the Need for Independent Replication. The Psychological Record, 17(2), 257–262. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03393713

Failure rate of D-dimer testing in patients with high clinical probability of pulmonary embolism: Ancillary analysis of three European studies by SAEM

Failure rate of D-dimer testing in patients with high clinical probability of pulmonary embolism: Ancillary analysis of three European studies by SAEM

The H1B Guy will be discussing H1B lottery alternatives with Syndesus CEO Marc Pavlopoulos on Wednesday, March 26th at 2:00 pm ET.We'll cover:H1B Lottery Demand and Probability of SelectionPros and Cons of Stop-Gap SolutionsPlan C: Alternatives for failed H1B lottery and expiring OPT visasFor more US employment based immigration coverage please check out TheH1BGuy.comFollow The H1B Guy: YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram, LinkedInThe H1B Guy is proudly sponsored by:Syndesus and Path 2 Canada - Path 2 Canada is the ideal Plan B for high skilled immigrants currently in the US whose status may be uncertain. Check them out: https://syndesus.com/contact/#H1B #H1BLottery #OPT #GTS #ExpressEntry #CanadaImmigration #H1BGUY #Syndesus

Rula patients typically pay $15 per session when using insurance. Connect with quality therapists and mental health experts who specialize in you at https://www.rula.com/TOE #rulapod Try Huel with 15% OFF + Free Gift for New Customers today using my code theoriesofeverything at https://huel.com/theoriesofeverything . Fuel your best performance with Huel today! Is Earth being monitored by an advanced civilization one million years ahead of us? And does this alien civilization actually share an ancient past with humanity? Economist Robin Hanson explores a provocative theory suggesting that highly evolved extraterrestrials may be subtly observing us—either as caretakers or as part of a long-running experiment. From there, the conversation delves into the intricacies of academic funding and the peer review process. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Links Mentioned: - Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/ - Robin's profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson - Robin's book: https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620 - Tyler Cowen on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwieLd7Lyc8&ab_channel=CurtJaimungal - Gregory Chaitin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoEuav8G6sY - Matthew Segal on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeTm4fSXpbM - Daniel Van Zant's article on incentive markets: https://www.danielvanzant.com/p/breakthrough-incentive-markets - Michael Levin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8iFtaltX-s - Lue Elizondo on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAmFlLfsZKM - Ross Coulthart on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQnGcX7oxms Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:36 - The Great Filter 05:38 - Where Are The Aliens? 09:13 - UFOs 16:50 - Panspermia 23:05 - Alien Hierarchies 27:30 - Alien Culture & Motivations 33:18 - Probability of Aliens 39:18 - Truth 49:41 - Fall of Academia 01:11:27 - Peer Review 01:20:22 - Ranking Ideas 01:23:09 - The System is “Broken” Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science #aliens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Scott and Josh discuss how we should hear the promises attached to the Proverbs. The Words of Grace Podcast seeks to clarify, amplify, and apply the Sunday morning sermon at Grace Community Church. From time to time we will address other topics. We hope these podcasts help impress the Word of God into your everyday life. Episodes are hosted by Josh Hussung and Scott Patty.

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.LEARNING: Use Pascal's wager to avoid making devastating mistakes. “You have to think about the cost of being wrong versus giving up on that hope or the ability to brag about how you pick the best-performing stock. Pascal's wager gives you the right way to think about the answer. And then, you get to enjoy your life much more.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent DecisionsIn this chapter, Larry discusses Pascal's wager, a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions rather than just the probability of outcomes.Pascal's wagerIn Pascal's wager, the philosopher asked how we should act when we cannot prove or disprove if God exists. To answer this question, the philosopher said: if a Supreme Being doesn't exist, then all the devout have lost is the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of adult church services. But if God does exist, then the atheist roasts in hell for eternity.Pascal concluded that the consequences of your actions matter far more than whatever you think the probabilities of the outcomes might be.Using Pascal's wager to make financial decisionsPascal's wager empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. It encourages us to carefully consider the consequences before accepting the risks involved in case we are wrong. This approach can be applied to a wide range of financial decisions, instilling confidence in our choices.Buying life insuranceImagine you're an average 28-year-old. You got married a few years ago and have your first child. Now, you must decide whether you should have life insurance. If you buy the life insurance, you know with a very high degree of certainty for the next 40 years, you're going to be paying away a premium to the life insurance company and foregoing their earnings that you could get by taking that money investing in the stock market and maybe get a seven to 10% per annum return.Yet, most people buy the insurance because of the consequences of their being wrong, and they happen to be unlucky enough to die, either through an accident or some disease that wasn't forecasted for them. Then, their wives and children may live in poverty. And that's just a consequence that's not acceptable.Asset allocationIn another example, Pascal discusses

Upper West Side, Mughlai Indian restaurant, Eagle Court, 84th between Broadway and Amsterdam, Alana and Daryl love Indian food, John Scully and Daryl played cribbage in college, Cribbage simply a card game, Board is just a scoreboard, Milo loved cribbage, Maybe a thousand games of cribbage with Milo, Milo liked sports video games, FIFA, Madden, NBA2K, Milo preferred a board game, Catan, Better strategist would win more often over time, Over time Milo would beat me more often than I would beat him, Video games don't require strategy the same way, Cards were always interesting to Milo, Probability and statistics, Card games quiet, Meditative component, With the Nachsins in Ocean City, Monopoly with the Nachsins, Milo and Daryl played cribbage, Milo never declined to play, Cribbage sounds like bridge, but is very simple, Milo and Daryl played at Sloan Kettering regularly, A few nurses at Sloan Kettering like cribbage, Brant Sistrom, Father and dear friend Milo died one after the other, Brant, like Milo, loved cribbage and Catan, Daryl and Brant have played cribbage together, Daryl warns Brant that he's gunning for him, Daryl invites others to play cribbage and to come to him for instruction, Great tribute to Milo, The Idea of Machines

Send us a text | PINERIES | ANOTHRIC | CARYOTIN | PROTAMIN | MINATORY | VANITORY | RUTILANT | BANNEROL | BARONNES | BUTANONE NANOTUBE | OBTURATE TABOURET | ORDNANCE  | NORMANDE | FONTANEL | SONARMEN MONERANS | TAUTOMER | PENTOSAN | RESORCIN | STENOTIC TONETICS | TOREUTIC | WORRITED | FISTNOTE | TOWNSITE | ALIGHTED GILTHEAD | SOMEDEAL | GERARDIA | RETIARII | NORTENOS NETROOTS | BIENNEALE | DECENNIA ENNEADIC | CEDARIER | RINGLETY | TUBENOSE | DUECENTO | ENSORCEL | UDOMETER | FELSTONE | TRUELOVE | ROCAILLE | TEOCALLI | SCARIOSE | AQUATONE | INTEGRIN | AMBERINA | THERIACA | CAVATINE | VICARATE | APHANITE | RABIETIC | HIERATIC | VINIFERA | LONGHAIR | LAAGERED | STEALAGE | ATENOLOL | ANTEVERT | AGIOTAGE | UTILIDOR | ENGENIOUS | HALIDOME | EPISOMAL | DOORCASE | HORDEOLA | TOOLHEAD | LATEWOOD | STOMODEA | SEAFLOOR | SALEROOM | AUTOSOME | CORODIES | ECLOSION | OINOMELS SIMOLEON | OTIOSELY | NICOTINE COTININE | ULTRARED | LUTENIST UNSILENT

In this episode, The Annuity Man discussed:  Income Riders vs. Single Premium Immediate Annuities (SPIA) Comparison Process Strict rules  Probability of Improvement   Key Takeaways:  Stan explains that in some cases, you can potentially swap an income rider from a variable or indexed annuity for a SPIA with a higher guaranteed lifetime income stream. To determine if a transfer makes sense, you must: compare the income rider amount, use the accumulation value (not the income rider value), ensure the new annuity provides a higher contractual guarantee, verify the transfer is a non-taxable event The annuity industry has strict rules to prevent unnecessary "flipping" of annuities. Any transfer must demonstrate a clear financial benefit to the consumer, with a side-by-side comparison showing a higher contractual guarantee. Stan estimates that about 70% of the time, you won't beat the existing income rider by transferring to a SPIA. However, he recommends checking to ensure you have the highest possible contractual guarantee.   "The annuity industry does not want agents and advisors out there transferring an account to create a commission for the agent or advisor. Whatever you think about the annuity industry, they really do care about the consumer." —  Stan The Annuity Man.    Connect with The Annuity Man:  Website: http://theannuityman.com/  Email: Stan@TheAnnuityMan.com  Book: Owner's Manuals: https://www.stantheannuityman.com/how-do-annuities-work YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCXKKxvVslbeGAlEc5sra2g  Get a Quote Today: https://www.stantheannuityman.com/annuity-calculator! 

Devin, Jackson and Az talk about their experiences at CCO and break down the event meta   Probability spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mQRQRdPQaKprZlGAxuI_NhNL6Lpj7BjB3n94CskxQRI/edit?usp=sharing Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

Devin Talks about Probability and how it can help you make decisions in a game of Heroclix   The mentioned spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mQRQRdPQaKprZlGAxuI_NhNL6Lpj7BjB3n94CskxQRI/edit?usp=sharing   The main takeaways: 8 or higher first perplex better than second prob 10 or higher outwit reflexs/esd otherwise outwit rollout, for 50/50 roll out just outwit the rollout Opposing probs and your probs don't cancel out, but generally opposing probs amplify the effect of the extra perplex as well so the takeaways stay similar   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

This week your host Fred Williams and co-host Doug McBurney welcome Dr. Royal Truman to air his concerns regarding assertions that "Professor Dave" (David James Farina) makes against creation scientists.   *The Royal Treatment: Royal Truman, PhD received his bachelor's degrees in chemistry and in computer science from SUNY Buffalo, an M.B.A from the University of Michigan, a Ph.D. in organic chemistry from Michigan State with post-graduate studies in bioinformatics at the universities of Heidelberg and Mannheim in Germany.  Royal believes the God of Abraham created the universe recently, and that His Son Jesus Christ is the savior of the world.   *Setting the Stage: Concern Zero: Professor Dave claims there are no credible chemists in the creation science community.   *The Disappearing Evolutionist: Concern #1: Professor Dave claims there is no such word as "evolutionist." Someday, by the grace of God, we hope he's not mistaken!   *Whale of an Error: Concern #2: Dr. Truman helps Professor Dave and his audience understand the Hebrew word in the Bible for the great fish that swallowed Jonah.   *Just Batty: Concern #3: More help for the good professor understanding the Hebrew word in the Bible that describes bats and flying creatures.   *Constant Lunacy? Concern #4: Dr. Truman explains that Creationists assume that the rate of lunar recession was faster in the past, (contrary to Professor Dave's "bunk", we do not say it was constant).   *The Slow Kid... Concern #5: Dr. Truman points out Professor Dave's misunderstanding of the mathematics describing the celestial mechanics regarding lunar recession.   *The Mind of a Child : Concern #6: Professor Dave alleges that creation scientists misrepresent "the Big Bang" as an explosion that instantly produced fully formed planets. But we all know that creation scientists are perfectly capable of describing the Big Bang in all its absurdity, just as the evolutionists do, (typically right before we debunk it).   *Abiogenesis: Concern #7: Professor Dave accuses creation scientists of oversimplifying the enormously sophisticated origin of life research, experiments and theories that have failed for decades to produce even a basic algorithm for abiogenesis that either a PhD or a 6th grader could call convincing.   *Sprouting Off: Concern #8: Professor Dave says creation scientists accuse evolutionists of portraying creatures that suddenly sprout wings and appendages alá Richard Goldshmidt's Hopeful Monster!   *Probability & Protein: Concern #9: Most people (creationists and evolutionists) outside specialized fields within genetics are not aware that genes and proteins can vary in composition along their sequence. Professor Dave pretends this common ignorance reflects what creation scientists believe, and then unleashes a torrent of vulgar insults, "poisoning the well" for a civil debate.   *Competence & Condescension: Concern #10: Professor Dave claims there are no competent scientists in the creation science universe.   *Setting the Table: Concern #11: Dr. Truman sets up a scholarly review of concerns 11-17 of Professor Dave's so-called creationist debunk video.

This week your host Fred Williams and co-host Doug McBurney welcome Dr. Royal Truman to air his concerns regarding assertions that "Professor Dave" (David James Farina) makes against creation scientists.   *The Royal Treatment: Royal Truman, PhD received his bachelor's degrees in chemistry and in computer science from SUNY Buffalo, an M.B.A from the University of Michigan, a Ph.D. in organic chemistry from Michigan State with post-graduate studies in bioinformatics at the universities of Heidelberg and Mannheim in Germany.  Royal believes the God of Abraham created the universe recently, and that His Son Jesus Christ is the savior of the world.   *Setting the Stage: Concern Zero: Professor Dave claims there are no credible chemists in the creation science community.   *The Disappearing Evolutionist: Concern #1: Professor Dave claims there is no such word as "evolutionist." Someday, by the grace of God, we hope he's not mistaken!   *Whale of an Error: Concern #2: Dr. Truman helps Professor Dave and his audience understand the Hebrew word in the Bible for the great fish that swallowed Jonah.   *Just Batty: Concern #3: More help for the good professor understanding the Hebrew word in the Bible that describes bats and flying creatures.   *Constant Lunacy? Concern #4: Dr. Truman explains that Creationists assume that the rate of lunar recession was faster in the past, (contrary to Professor Dave's "bunk", we do not say it was constant).   *The Slow Kid... Concern #5: Dr. Truman points out Professor Dave's misunderstanding of the mathematics describing the celestial mechanics regarding lunar recession.   *The Mind of a Child : Concern #6: Professor Dave alleges that creation scientists misrepresent "the Big Bang" as an explosion that instantly produced fully formed planets. But we all know that creation scientists are perfectly capable of describing the Big Bang in all its absurdity, just as the evolutionists do, (typically right before we debunk it).   *Abiogenesis: Concern #7: Professor Dave accuses creation scientists of oversimplifying the enormously sophisticated origin of life research, experiments and theories that have failed for decades to produce even a basic algorithm for abiogenesis that either a PhD or a 6th grader could call convincing.   *Sprouting Off: Concern #8: Professor Dave says creation scientists accuse evolutionists of portraying creatures that suddenly sprout wings and appendages alá Richard Goldshmidt's Hopeful Monster!   *Probability & Protein: Concern #9: Most people (creationists and evolutionists) outside specialized fields within genetics are not aware that genes and proteins can vary in composition along their sequence. Professor Dave pretends this common ignorance reflects what creation scientists believe, and then unleashes a torrent of vulgar insults, "poisoning the well" for a civil debate.   *Competence & Condescension: Concern #10: Professor Dave claims there are no competent scientists in the creation science universe.   *Setting the Table: Concern #11: Dr. Truman sets up a scholarly review of concerns 11-17 of Professor Dave's so-called creationist debunk video.  

Send us a text | DIAGONAL GONADIAL | OLIGURIA | NESTABLE | ARBELEST BLEATERS BLEAREST RETABLES RESTABLE | LANCETED | DECRETAL | CUNEATED | NUCLEATE | SECATEUR | TRAMELED | STAMENED | ANDESYTE | DEPURATE | DEWATERS TARWEEDS | TALESMEN | BEDLNER LINEBRED RENDIBLE | BESTRIDE BISTERED | STILBENS TENSIBLE | DENTICLE | DESERTIC DISCREET DISCRETE | DEUTERIC | SCLERITE RETICLES TIERCLES TRISCELE | CERUSITE CUTESIER EUCRITES | DEMENTIS SEDIMENT | DUVETINE | LEMURINE RELUMINE | PERILUNE | EPISTLER PELTRIES PERLITES REPTILES | KAISERIN | SEXTARII | CARROTIN | NOTIONAL | DOTATION | OOGAMIES | ANTEDATE | DIASTRAL | SILURIAN | ROSTRATE | GYNOECIA | BRESAOLA | CATALOES | ARACEOUS | PSORALEA | IDIOLECT | ISOCLINE | DIOLEFIN | PISOLITE | MOONGATE | OROGENIC | JALOUSIE | FAINEANT | HATTERIA | PATINATE | VERATRIA | BRISANCE | BIPARTED | BINATELY | BESTIARY SYBARITE | TRACHEID | FRANCISE | PARTICLE PRELATIC | VESICANT | SHERWANI | LIVETRAP | APTERIUM | EPINASTY | EXTRADOS | KENDOIST | TALEGGIO | EQUISETA | EUTAXIES | NIELLOED | BOLTONIA | PAROTOID | FAROLITO | NOPALITO | TROOPIAL | PANETELA | VALERATE | ILMENITE

Tom welcomes back Chris Rutherglen to take a very deep dive into a few gold charts. Chris is a PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and Publisher of the Gold Investor Research Substack. Chris explains how the long-term outlook for gold prices involves several key factors that influence its trajectory over time. One important aspect is the mid-cycle level of gold, which reflects the balance between the amount of gold available above ground and the overall money supply. When the money supply increases, this can raise the mid-cycle level, potentially leading to higher gold prices. Currently, gold is trading above this mid-cycle line, suggesting that a correction downward might be possible in the near term. Chris shows his charts for the debt-to-money supply ratio. Historically, this ratio has remained relatively stable at around 2.5% from the 1920s up until the late 1970s. However, after the financial crisis of 2008, it began to rise and has been declining since then. If this downward trend continues, it could drive gold prices higher as more money would be needed to support existing debt levels. Looking at long-term historical patterns, there is a suggestion that gold might reach a high point around $8,000 to $10,000 in the early 2030s. This projection is influenced by ongoing monetary expansion and economic conditions that favor safe-haven assets like gold. Despite these indicators Chris, expects predicting the future of gold prices with certainty is challenging due to a variety of factors, including inflation rates, global political and economic events, and policies set by central banks such as the Federal Reserve. Key elements to watch include quantitative easing measures and the levels of government debt, both of which play significant roles in shaping the growth of the money supply and their impact on gold demand. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Timeframes & Cycle Lengths7:52 - Long End Curve?11:58 - Levels and Zones21:00 - Gold Mid-Cycles Levels24:04 - Cycles & Calendar Periods30:15 - Probabilities & Targets32:35 - Gold & Equities Pullback33:42 - S&P GDP Ratio + CPI37:03 - Gold & Inflation42:35 - Gold Silver Ratio44:46 - Silver Price Outlook46:55 - Silver Timing & QE's51:16 - HUI Miners Vs. Gold54:15 - Major Miner Charts1:00:43 - Patience & Majors Costs1:07:30 - Long-Term Gold Timeline1:10:42 - All Sector Debt/US M21:18:12 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/CRutherglenSubstack: https://giresearch.substack.com Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin

Send us a text | PATOOTIE | GRANITAS | BARONAGE | ABROGATE | PEIGNOIR | ROTUNDER | RATTLIER | INSNARER | STRAITER | GEOTAXIS | TENEBRAE | DANGLERS GLANDERS | GESTURAL | ASSOILED ISOLEADS | CANALISE | ACAULINE | FAIRLEAD | PRAEDIAL | LAPIDATE | ADAMSITE DIASTEMA | STAPELIA | AESTIVAL SALIVATE | URAEMIAS | SIBILATE TIBIALES | ALCIDINE | SCIANEID | SALICINE | FINIALED | DILATIVE | PRESIDIA | FETIALIS FILIATES | ALIENISM MILESIAN | RAMILIES | VIRELAIS | DOGTAILS DOGSTAIL | CONEPATE | EPHORATE | CENOBITE | COINHERE | EVECTION | ORECTIVE | OVERMINE VOMERINE | EYEPOINT | ROENTGEN | ROSTELLA | ANSEROUS ARSENOUS | OSSATURE | LUTEOLiN | LAZURITE | SUZERAIN | ANTBEARS RATSBANE | ARIARIES | PARENTAL PARLANTE PATERNAL PRENATAL | SARMENTA | TSAREVNA | NEURITIC | DIRIMENT | NITRATOR | RAZEEING | ANTHODIA | MANATOID | MANORIAL MORAINAL | TALAPOIN | ORIBITAD | LAVATION | AORISTIC | TAPIROID | OVARITIS | ARMIGERO | PROGERIA | UNIDEAED | LEALTIES | LACUNOSE | LOCUSTAE LACTEOUS OSCULATE | POULARDE | MELANOUS | RAMULOSE | AUTOLYSE | LEMUROID | SOLDIERY | DIMEROUS | RIVULOSE | EGLATERE | OTITIDES | SARCENET | ECOTOPIA | GHERAOED/S | HELOTAGE | ECLOGITE | TRACTILE | UNCINATE | CURARINE | URTICATE | PINNATED | UNHAIRER | UNREPAIR | BURSTONE | DRYSTONE | ABSEILED BELADIES | SANGREAL | AGRESTAL | FILARIAE | 

There is a word you probably use that means something entirely different than what you think. In fact, it means the opposite of what you think. Yet, this opposite meaning has become so pervasive, even dictionaries now say that the wrong meaning is now okay. Listen and I will tell you what the word is and what it really means. https://www.jalopnik.com/dear-hollywood-please-knock-it-off-with-the-overdrive-5926885/ Artificial Intelligence can seem intimidating to some. Yet it is actually quite simple to use and it can do amazing things to make your life better. It can teach you a skill, plan your dinner, plan a trip, be a brainstorming partner and counsel you to help with a problem. These are just a few of the things you'll discover how to do from listening to my guest, Celia Quillan. She is an expert in artificial intelligence and has been featured in Time, The New York Post, The Wall Street Journal, and the Today show. She is the creator of the popular TikTok and Instagram channel @SmartWorkAI and she is author of the book, AI for Life: 100+ Ways to Use Artificial Intelligence to Make Your Life Easier, More Productive…and More Fun! (https://amzn.to/3QGCYy0) We often use phrases like, “There's a good chance…” or “It's likely that….” But without knowing HOW good a chance or HOW likely something is, the phrases don't mean much. To help get a true understanding of chance, probability and luck is David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of the book The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (https://amzn.to/41sXdEu). You probably feel safe taking a shower in your own bathroom. But dangers are lurking – some you might never have thought of. Listen as I explain how to reduce the risk of taking a shower. https://www.menshealth.com/health/g19544438/shower-safety/ PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! FACTOR: Eat smart with Factor! Get 50% off at https://FactorMeals.com/something50off QUINCE: Indulge in affordable luxury! Go to https://Quince.com/sysk for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. TIMELINE: Get 10% off your order of Mitopure!  Go to https://Timeline.com/SOMETHING SHOPIFY:  Nobody does selling better than Shopify! Sign up for a $1 per-month trial period at https://Shopify.com/sysk and upgrade your selling today! HERS: Hers is changing women's healthcare by providing access to GLP-1 weekly injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic and Wegovy, as well as oral medication kits. Start your free online visit today at https://forhers.com/sysk INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING right now! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Todd Adcock is a British PGA Accredited Golf Professional and a Scott Cowx Advanced Certified Coach.  Todd turned to golf instruction after a successful playing career, highlighted by being ranked as high as 8th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, representing England and winning the English Amateur Championship. Todd uses a holistic approach to golf instruction and most certainly applies his expertise and experience gained as a leading amateur and tournament-winning golfer. As a player he said he always looked for answers to problems and that bent led him to develop his "STOP Principle" for better decision-making, course management, and golf: S - Can I get a... Stance and Strike? T - What is the required... Trajectory" O - What are my... Options" P - What is the... Probability (of success)? He elaborates on each one of the relevant decision-making questions and illustrates how they can improve course management and scoring. He also dives into a few other game improvement concepts - (1) Finishing a Round well, (2) 1st Tee Nerves and the Opening Tee-shot, (3) Shot-shaping Windows and Club Selection, (4) Good Practice Habits, (5) Pragmatism vs. Emotionality, (6) Chasing Zeroes on a Launch Monitor, and (7) The Goldilocks Effect in Golf. This podcast is also available as a vodcast on YouTube - search and subscribe to Mark Immelman.

Send us a text | GADARENE | ANDROGEN | TUTORAGE | NEGRONIS | LOSARTAN | BIOCLEAN COINABLE | ALBICORE BRACIOLE CABRIOLE | AMBEROID | AEROBIUM | COADMIRE RACEMOID | CANOPIES CAPONISE | ECTOPIAS | HYOIDEAN | APHELION PHELONIA | HALIEROV | PROEMIAL | MEROPIAS | ECOTONAL | MODERATO | WANDEROO | WATERLOO | BONITOES EOBIONTS | IONOMERS MOONRISE | TWOONIES | ANCHORET | ENACTORY | PANFORTE | NOTCHIER | ENTROPIC INCEPTOR PRETONIC | ORPIMENT | AGMINATE ENIGMATA | GEMATRIA | OEDEMATA | BOISERIE | MOIETIES | TORTIERE | LORIKEET | KEROSINE | THEBAINE | ECHINATE | AETHERIC HETAERIC | HEMATINE HEMATEIN | RINGETTE | TIDELAND | TAILLEUR | SEDERUNT UNDERSET UNRESTED | STEREOED | OCTANGLE | GOATHERD | DRAGOMEN | DOGNAPER | WATERDOG | FAGOTERS | GANTLOPE | ESCOTING | RINGDOVE | FLORIGEN | REGOLITH | GHOSTIER | ROWELING LOWERING | DUTIABLE | DISMALER | SANDPILE | LIPREADS PARSLIED SPIRALED | DIALYSER | MAUNDIES | SPINULAE | LAUWINES | AEGROTAT | DILITATE | PERORATE | NEOTENIC | PORTIERE | TOWERIER | LIEGEMAN | PERIGEAL | LEVIGATE | MONAZITE | TOPAZINE | ABUTILON ABLUTION | STROBILA | ANTICOLD DALTONIC | DICROTAL | BREADNUT | NODALITY | DIOPTRAL | PINTADOS SATINPOD | DYSTONIA | FRUILANO | LANOSITY | TROUPIAL | VIRTUOSA | ALTERANT TARLETAN | GENTRICE ERECTING | ADNATION | SONATINA | ROSARIAN | OSTANATI OSTINATO | SARTORII | ROTENONE | ALLANITE | ARILLATE | ANNULOSE

A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play?The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value' — in which you multiply probabilities by the value of each outcome and then sum them up — says your expected earnings are infinite. You have a 50% chance of winning $2, for '0.5 * $2 = $1' in expected earnings. A 25% chance of winning $4, for '0.25 * $4 = $1' in expected earnings, and on and on. A never-ending series of $1s added together comes to infinity. And that's despite the fact that you know with certainty you can only ever win a finite amount!Today's guest — philosopher Alan Hájek of the Australian National University — thinks of much of philosophy as “the demolition of common sense followed by damage control” and is an expert on paradoxes related to probability and decision-making rules like “maximise expected value.”Rebroadcast: this episode was originally released in October 2022.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.The problem described above, known as the St. Petersburg paradox, has been a staple of the field since the 18th century, with many proposed solutions. In the interview, Alan explains how very natural attempts to resolve the paradox — such as factoring in the low likelihood that the casino can pay out very large sums, or the fact that money becomes less and less valuable the more of it you already have — fail to work as hoped.We might reject the setup as a hypothetical that could never exist in the real world, and therefore of mere intellectual curiosity. But Alan doesn't find that objection persuasive. If expected value fails in extreme cases, that should make us worry that something could be rotten at the heart of the standard procedure we use to make decisions in government, business, and nonprofits.These issues regularly show up in 80,000 Hours' efforts to try to find the best ways to improve the world, as the best approach will arguably involve long-shot attempts to do very large amounts of good.Consider which is better: saving one life for sure, or three lives with 50% probability? Expected value says the second, which will probably strike you as reasonable enough. But what if we repeat this process and evaluate the chance to save nine lives with 25% probability, or 27 lives with 12.5% probability, or after 17 more iterations, 3,486,784,401 lives with a 0.00000009% chance. Expected value says this final offer is better than the others — 1,000 times better, in fact.Ultimately Alan leans towards the view that our best choice is to “bite the bullet” and stick with expected value, even with its sometimes counterintuitive implications. Where we want to do damage control, we're better off looking for ways our probability estimates might be wrong.In this conversation, originally released in October 2022, Alan and Rob explore these issues and many others:Simple rules of thumb for having philosophical insightsA key flaw that hid in Pascal's wager from the very beginningWhether we have to simply ignore infinities because they mess everything upWhat fundamentally is 'probability'?Some of the many reasons 'frequentism' doesn't work as an account of probabilityWhy the standard account of counterfactuals in philosophy is deeply flawedAnd why counterfactuals present a fatal problem for one sort of consequentialismChapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob's intro (00:01:05)The interview begins (00:05:28)Philosophical methodology (00:06:35)Theories of probability (00:40:58)Everyday Bayesianism (00:49:42)Frequentism (01:08:37)Ranges of probabilities (01:20:05)Implications for how to live (01:25:05)Expected value (01:30:39)The St. Petersburg paradox (01:35:21)Pascal's wager (01:53:25)Using expected value in everyday life (02:07:34)Counterfactuals (02:20:19)Most counterfactuals are false (02:56:06)Relevance to objective consequentialism (03:13:28)Alan's best conference story (03:37:18)Rob's outro (03:40:22)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio mastering: Ben Cordell and Ryan KesslerTranscriptions: Katy Moore

Probability is not what you think it is...

Will and Steve are back and it's time to come clean.-Admitting that we've been shills the whole time-Bringing honesty and objectivity to Yankees social media-Probability is kind of super important-The players we expect to criticize this year-ToxicityAll that and more on the latest from Yankees Files!

In this episode, Curt Jaimungal speaks with Jacob Barandes, a theoretical physicist from Harvard, about the complexities of quantum mechanics. They explore wave-particle duality, Jacob's reformulation of quantum theory through indivisible stochastic processes, and the historical perspectives of figures like Schrödinger and Einstein. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Links Mentioned: •⁠ ⁠Watch Part 1 of this conversation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaS1usLeXQM •⁠ ⁠Jacob's talks covering many of his points in this conversation: https://www.youtube.com/@JacobBarandesPhilOfPhysics •⁠ ⁠Jacob's first appearance on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oWip00iXbo •⁠ ⁠New Prospects for a Causally Local Formulation of Quantum Theory (Jacob's paper): https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.16935 •⁠ ⁠The Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence (Jacob's paper): https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10778 •⁠ ⁠Schrodinger's wave function paper (1926): https://github.com/yousbot/Quantum-Papers/blob/master/1926%20-%20E.%20Schrodinger%2C%20An%20Undulatory%20Theory%20of%20the%20Mechanics%20of%20Atoms%20and%20Molecules.pdf •⁠ ⁠The Born-Einstein Letters (book): https://www.amazon.com/Born-Einstein-Letters-1916-1955-Friendship-Uncertain/dp/1403944962/ •⁠ ⁠Probability Relations Between Separated Systems (paper) : https://www.informationphilosopher.com/solutions/scientists/schrodinger/Schrodinger-1936.pdf •⁠ ⁠John Bell on Bertlemann's socks (paper): https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf •⁠ ⁠John Bell on the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox (paper): https://journals.aps.org/ppf/pdf/10.1103/PhysicsPhysiqueFizika.1.195 •⁠ ⁠Can Quantum-Mechanical Description of Physical Reality Be Considered Complete'? (paper): https://journals.aps.org/pr/pdf/10.1103/PhysRev.47.777 •⁠ ⁠Causation as Folk Science (paper): https://sites.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/papers/003004.pdf Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Quantum Mechanics 06:01 Wave-Particle Duality Explained 08:44 Distinctions Between Waves 10:36 Quantum Field Theory Insights 15:10 Research Directions in Quantum Physics 24:27 Challenges in Quantum Field Theory 31:38 Quantum Mechanics vs. General Relativity 35:47 Fluctuations in Spacetime 45:09 Probabilistic General Relativity 54:00 Bell's Theorem and Non-Locality 1:20:48 The Nature of Causation in Physics 1:23:52 Causation in Modern Science 1:30:26 Reichenbachian Factorization Debates 1:31:44 Bell's Theorem Evolution 1:35:45 Indivisible Stochastic Approach 1:38:17 Understanding Entanglement 1:42:28 Information and Black Holes 1:45:44 Phase Information Loss 1:49:03 Heisenberg and Copenhagen Interpretation 1:52:29 The Nature of Electrons 1:53:09 Exploring Open Research Questions 1:59:09 Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics 2:11:30 Problems with Many Worlds Interpretation 2:27:42 Challenges of Probability in Many Worlds 2:35:14 The Case for a New Interpretation 2:43:11 Building a Collaborative Reputation Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science #quantummechanics #quantumphysics #physics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today on the Woody and Wilcox Show: Don't give underwear as a Valentine's gift; Woody is trying to sell his couch; Gift recommendations for Valentine's Day; Probability of an asteroid hitting the Earth has doubled; The best-selling vehicles in America; Jeep owners are upset over commercials being played when the car stops; DoorDash collaboration with Hustler; Egg prices are causing people to rent chickens; Slice is returning after 15 years; And more!

Today, we look at Mike Winger's attempt to answer 10 atheist objections in 3 minutes. Will he do any better than the last guy? Only time will tell!Cards:3 Minutes of Lazy Apologetics?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn1rFo995z010 Things that Make No Sense about Christianity...#4 will BLOW YOUR MIND! (sorry I couldn't resist):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkI1wxzPUisOriginal Video: https://tinyurl.com/2xnvd7xzSources:The origins of religious disbelief: https://tinyurl.com/2dgqokdcThe Difference Between Formal and Informal Fallacies: https://tinyurl.com/29uez42fInductive Logic and the Probability that God Exists: Farewell to Sceptical Theism: https://tinyurl.com/297fwtwcCalum Miller's attempted refutation of Michael Tooley's evidential argument from evil: https://tinyurl.com/2djky9ucThe nomological argument for the existence of God: https://tinyurl.com/2damgakdWhat's wrong with Tooley's argument from evil?: https://tinyurl.com/2yxz6sorThe Early History Of God Yahweh And The Other Deities In Ancient Israel: https://tinyurl.com/299r2ddjThe 4 fundamental meanings of ‘nothing' in science: https://tinyurl.com/2cj73ukySection 5: Evolution, Climate Change and Other Issues: https://tinyurl.com/2lcvkhbzAll my various links can be found here:http://links.vicedrhino.comThis content is CAN credentialed, which means you can report instances of harassment, abuse, or other harm on their hotline at (617) 249-4255, or on their website at creatoraccountabilitynetwork.orgBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/viced-rhino-the-podcast--4623273/support.

What if I told you that the key to unlocking massive success lies in one crucial concept: probability. That's right, the level of success you ultimately achieve will be directly correlated to the level of probability you create within your business and your aligned strategy. In this episode, I dive deep into the game-changing power of probability thinking.   By the end of this episode, you'll understand why treating your coaching business with the same level of intention and strategy as any other serious business venture is non-negotiable if you want to reach that next level. Whether you're aiming for your first six figures or your first seven figures and beyond, this episode will give you the tools to make it happen.   Get full show notes, transcript, and more information here: https://amandakarlstadcoaching.com/277    

Send us a textPooled compensation models are legal. In this episode, Captain Integrity Bob Wade discusses the compliance & legal risks when it comes to pooled compensation models. Hear how to make sure the units going into the pool are Fair Market Value (FMV), how to carefully select pool participants, how the compensation should be divided, Bob's swimming pool analogy, and some trivia about Two-Face from Batman. Learn more at CaptainIntegrity.com

In this episode, my guest is Dr. Ellen Langer, Ph.D., professor of psychology at Harvard University and the world's leading researcher on the mind-body connection and the power our thinking has on our physical health. She explains how specific ways of framing and asking questions about the world shape our physical health and rate of aging. Dr. Langer also explains how our perception of time and control significantly impact our rate of physical healing, hormones, immune system, and longevity. She describes mindfulness as a way of framing life, not simply a meditation or other practice, and discusses data showing how to use one's mind to overcome health challenges and achieve remarkable outcomes. Dr. Langer is a luminary and pioneer in researching the relationship between the mind and body with scientific rigor. Her work and our discussion are applicable to women and men of all ages and walks of life. Read the full episode show notes at hubermanlab.com. Thank you to our sponsors AG1: https://drinkag1.com/huberman BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/huberman Helix Sleep: https://helixsleep.com/huberman Joovv: https://joovv.com/huberman Function: https://functionhealth.com/huberman Our Place: https://fromourplace.com/huberman Timestamps 00:00:00 Dr. Ellen Langer 00:02:57 Mindfulness 00:06:53 Mindless, Focus; Being Mindful 00:11:03 Sponsors: BetterHelp & Helix Sleep 00:13:41 Meditation 00:14:47 Choices & Longer Life; Mind & Body Unity, Exercise, Nocebo & Placebo Effect 00:25:39 Self, Mind-Body Interconnectedness 00:32:16 Acupuncture; Cancer & Healing, Probabilities, Tool: Tragedy or Inconvenience? 00:42:18 Sponsors: AG1 & Joovv 00:44:46 Brain & Predictions, Control & Mindlessness; Resolutions 00:48:09 “Should” Thoughts, Multitasking, Making Moments Matter, Work-Life Balance 00:56:55 Sleep, Stress, Tool: Perceived Sleep & Performance 01:01:58 Counterclockwise Study 01:06:15 Pioneering a Field, Change, Decisions & Uncertainty 01:16:47 Sponsor: Function 01:18:35 Making Sense of Behavior, Forgiveness, Blame 01:25:35 Technology, Human Drive; Tool: Noticing & Appreciating New Things 01:32:50 Art, Mindfulness, Education, Awards 01:39:30 Labels, Borderline Effect; Identity, “I Am”, Learning & Age 01:49:44 Sponsor: Our Place 01:50:56 Memory Loss, Vision; Chronic Disease, Symptom Variability 02:01:22 Deadlines, Constraints; Scientific Method & Absolutes 02:06:47 Covid Crisis, Vaccines, Uncertainty, Multiple Answers 02:12:06 Age & Decline?, Experience Levels & “Disinhibited” 02:18:18 Justice, Drama; Life-Changing Events & Perspective 02:25:45 Death, Spontaneous Cancer Remission; Will to Live 02:31:59 Mindful Hospital, Stress, Burnout, Tool: Mindful Checklist 02:36:32 Noticing, Choices 02:41:16 Coddling, Fragility, Social Media, Money 02:48:26 Tool: Playfulness 02:52:08 Nostalgia, Mindfulness; Tool: Gamifying Life; Parenthood & Work 02:59:17 Healing & Time Perception, Awareness & Neuroplasticity, Imagine Possibilities 03:07:12 Reviews & Critical Feedback, Others' Opinions 03:12:00 Enlightenment, Flexibility, Expansiveness; Everyone Song 03:19:47 Zero-Cost Support, YouTube, Spotify & Apple Follow & Reviews, Sponsors, YouTube Feedback, Protocols Book, Social Media, Neural Network Newsletter Disclaimer & Disclosures

The intrinsic probability of a theory is the probability that a theory has purely in virtue of its intrinsic features. In this video, I give a brief overview of Paul Draper's theory of intrinsic probability according to which the intrinsic probability of a theory depends only on its modesty and coherence.

As 2025 unfolds and Bitcoin continues soaring to new all-time highs as it reenters price discovery, many analyst and Bitcoin models predict where the price action is most likely to take us this year for a new cycle peak. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a textEver wonder why trying the same fertility treatment more than once doesn't just double your chances of success? Or how putting back two embryos could actually lower your overall chances of a live birth? In this episode of Taco Bout Fertility Tuesday, Dr. Mark Amols breaks down the math behind fertility treatments, exploring how probabilities, risks, and statistics truly impact your journey to parenthood. From understanding why more isn't always better with embryo transfers to demystifying relative vs. absolute risk, this episode will change the way you think about fertility odds. Join us for eye-opening insights, relatable analogies, and practical advice that empower you to make informed decisions on your path to building a family.Thanks for tuning in to another episode of 'Taco Bout Fertility Tuesday' with Dr. Mark Amols. If you found this episode insightful, please share it with friends and family who might benefit from our discussion. Remember, your feedback is invaluable to us – leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred listening platform. Stay connected with us for updates and fertility tips – follow us on Facebook. For more resources and information, visit our website at www.NewDirectionFertility.com. Have a question or a topic you'd like us to cover? We'd love to hear from you! Reach out to us at TBFT@NewDirectionFertility.com. Join us next Tuesday for more discussions on fertility, where we blend medical expertise with a touch of humor to make complex topics accessible and engaging. Until then, keep the conversation going and remember: understanding your fertility is a journey we're on together.

Transition | Confronting the increasing probability of the Bears hiring Mike McCarthy full 1661 Tue, 14 Jan 2025 21:24:10 +0000 H4Qkzl6dnjnSUlzZr5siOSaIaEJWe6kl sports Bernstein & Harris Show sports Transition | Confronting the increasing probability of the Bears hiring Mike McCarthy Dan Bernstein and Marshall Harris bring you fun, smart and compelling Chicago sports talk with great listener interaction. The show features discussion of the Bears, Blackhawks, Bulls, Cubs and White Sox as well as the biggest sports headlines beyond Chicago. Leila Rahimi joins the show as a co-host on Wednesdays. Recurring guests include Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards, Pro Football Talk founder Mike Florio, Cubs outfielder Ian Happ and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. Catch the show live Monday through Friday (10 a.m.- 2 p.m. CT) on 670 The Score, the exclusive audio home of the Cubs and the Bulls, or on the Audacy app. © 2024 Audacy, Inc. Sports False https://player.amperwavepodcasting.com?feed-link=https%3A%2F%2Frss.amperwave.net%2Fv2%2Fepisode%2FTransi

PREVIEW: TAIWAN: Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang, reporting from Taipei, comments on the low probability of a PRC/PLA attack on Taiwan. More details tonight. 1900 Boxer Rebellion

Have we set our marriage up for success? Based on hard data models, we navigate and assess the key factors that contribute to divorces across the country, and how they pertain to our relationship.Send us your questions at the WT9HOTLINE@GMAIL.COMFollow Wild Til 9 on Insta: @WildTil9Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast for free wherever you're listening or by using this link: https://bit.ly/WildTil9Watch Wild Til 9 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WildTil9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Have we set our marriage up for success? Based on hard data models, we navigate and assess the key factors that contribute to divorces across the country, and how they pertain to our relationship. Send us your questions at the WT9HOTLINE@GMAIL.COM Follow Wild Til 9 on Insta: @WildTil9 Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast for free wherever you're listening or by using this link: https://bit.ly/WildTil9 Watch Wild Til 9 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WildTil9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are you living in possibility or probability? In this Habits and Hustle episode, I am joined by Cathy Heller as she shares her incredible journey from struggling artist to successful entrepreneur and author. Her story is a testament to the power of living in possibility rather than probability. We dive into her new book Abundant Ever After and discuss the importance of taking action, being resourceful, and embracing an optimistic mindset to achieve one's goals. We also discuss the stigma around women and wealth, encouraging listeners to unapologetically declare their desire for financial abundance while using it to make a positive impact. Cathy Heller is a renowned teacher, podcaster and author. She hosts one of the top spiritual podcasts, Abundant Ever After, which has been downloaded more than 45 million times. She's a practitioner of the law of reception, and has a deep understanding of the universal principles of manifestation. Check out her new book Abundant Ever After.  What We Discuss: (01:07) Friendship and Support in Success (05:01) Exploring Jewish Manifestation and Energy (11:20) Changing Energy Through Mindful Awareness (19:31) From Record Deal to Music Licensing (31:02) Breaking Free From Past Trauma (36:54) Optimism, Wealth, and Transformative Courses (45:03) Female Entrepreneurship and Authenticity (57:42) Balance Between Spirituality and Action …and more! Thank you to our sponsors: AquaTru: Get 20% off any purifier at aquatru.com with code HUSTLE Therasage: Head over to therasage.com and use code Be Bold for 15% off  TruNiagen: Head over to truniagen.com and use code HUSTLE20 to get $20 off any purchase over $100. Magic Mind: Head over to www.magicmind.com/jen and use code Jen at checkout. BiOptimizers: Want to try Magnesium Breakthrough? Go to https://bioptimizers.com/jennifercohen and use promo code JC10 at checkout to save 10% off your purchase. Timeline Nutrition: Get 10% off your first order at timeline.com/cohen Air Doctor: Go to airdoctorpro.com and use promo code HUSTLE for up to $300 off and a 3-year warranty on air purifiers.    Find more from Jen:  Website: https://www.jennifercohen.com/ Instagram: @therealjencohen   Books: https://www.jennifercohen.com/books Speaking: https://www.jennifercohen.com/speaking-engagement Find more from Cathy Heller: Website: https://www.cathyheller.com/  Book: Abundant Ever After Podcast: Abundant Ever After

What is the probability of our existence? Neil deGrasse Tyson and cohosts Chuck Nice and Gary O'Reilly learn about the probabilities all around us, the idea of risk, and how they factor into our own security in the digital age with cybersecurity expert Alex Cosoi.NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/the-power-of-probability-with-alex-cosoi/Thanks to our Patrons Ben Jackson, James Hall, XYZ, Rick Reyes, Brian Gilstrap, Jeffrey Silva, Simon Schwartz, Lori Thomas, Sally Sapp, Alberto.p, Kenneth W Miller, Richard Hart, Patience, Brent Fraliex, 4 Light Years Away, Michele Raiola, Tess Gleason, Connie Schreiber, Metthew Tucker, Hickory Ogle, and Aldeeep for supporting us this week. Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ on Apple Podcasts to listen to new episodes ad-free and a whole week early.