Podcasts about Probability

Matter of Felix-Figueroa, 29 I&N Dec. 157 (BIA 2025)isomers; possession of methamphetamine; realistic probability test; burdens Rivera Samayoa v. Bondi, No. 24-1432 (1st Cir. July 28, 2025)cancellation of removal; exceptional and extremely unusual hardship; mixed questions of law and fact; discretionary relief; cumulative hardship analysis Real v. U.S. Att'y Gen., No. 24-1545 (3d Cir. July 30, 2025)due process; extraordinary circumstances; one-year asylum deadline; jurisdiction; INA § 208(a)(2)(D); INA § 203(a)(3) Navarro v. Bondi, No. 24-1253 (4th Cir. July 31, 2025)MS-13; CAT protection; credibility; omissions; expert evidence; more likely than not; issue exhaustion.   Sanchez-Banos v. Bondi, No. 24-2241 (8th Cir. Aug. 1, 2025) administrative closure; Avetisyan factors; failure to submit hardship evidenceSponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.  Cerenade"Leader in providing smart, secure, and intuitive cloud-based solutions"Demo Link!Click me too!get.eimmigration.com/resources  Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com   Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreview About your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego Voyager DISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

In this episode of the Tough Girl Podcast, we're joined by Dr. Sarah Ruggins—a high-achieving investment professional, academic powerhouse, and now a record-breaking ultra-endurance cyclist. From her early days as a national-level track athlete in Canada to surviving complex PTSD and rebuilding her life, Sarah's journey is one of transformation, resilience, and radical self-belief. In 2023, Sarah competed in the Transcontinental Bike Race, and in 2025, she took on her most audacious challenge yet: cycling from John O'Groats to Land's End and back again—2,715 km in just 5 days, 11 hours, and 14 minutes, setting a new outright record. This conversation dives deep into the planning, training, and mindset behind the ride—from strength work and 3:30 AM mornings to battling hallucinations, sleep deprivation, and pain barriers. Sarah shares her three-part mantra—Focus, Discipline, Gratitude—and unpacks how elite performance is built in the margins: with structure, strategy, and sacrifice. Whether you're chasing a personal goal or looking for motivation to push your own limits, this is an episode that will fuel your fire.  New episodes of the Tough Girl Podcast drop every Tuesday at 7 AM (UK time)! Make sure to subscribe so you never miss the inspiring journeys and incredible stories of tough women pushing boundaries.  Do you want to support the Tough Girl Mission to increase the amount of female role models in the media in the world of adventure and physical challenges? Support via Patreon! Join me in making a difference by signing up here: www.patreon.com/toughgirlpodcast.  Your support makes a difference.  Thank you x Show notes Who is Dr Sarah Ruggins Working as an investment professional for the past 10 years  Growing up in Canada  Being part of a very active family Doing a lot of running and focusing on track and field  Working with the best coaches Holding national records in middle distances  Preparing for junior olympics at 14/15 Wanting to represent her country at the highest level Her teenage years Needing a routine surgery on her feet Developing a disease of her nervous system  The impact on her life Developing complex PTSD  Getting back to a ‘normal life' Starting to focus more on academics  Getting 4 degrees in 4 different subjects Competing in the trans continental bike race in 2023 Wanting to understand what her limits were John O'Groats to Lands End and back again Being supported by a crew Working with Rob Lee from RLP Coaching  What training looked like from Sept/October 2024 to May 2025 What a typical week looked like Working with a strength coach to compliment what she was doing on the bike Increasing the volume of training on both the bike and in the gym Squats increasing from 45kg to - 4 sets of 5 reps at 110kg While working a full time job in finance  Having her whole life scheduled from 3.30am - 10pm  Figuring out life admin Setting big goals in your life - you need to be prepared to make sacrifices in pursuit of those goals  Planning, schedules and logistics  Coming back to the WHY was integral  Building the team and pulling everyone together Reaching out to sponsors Wanting to make a history making ride Probability, chance and luck Going to maximise our probabilities of success  Being on the start line being 100% confident Being forced to be brave and tough - but coming from a place of power Wanting to demonstrate to herself her own resilience and wanting to inspire others Starting the challenge and wanting to ride to her capabilities Working in blocks of 4 hours and focusing on the power.  Managing her process and focusing on what's on the road ahead Riding 4 hours and then off the bike for 10 mins - the ‘Pitt stops' What goes on in those 10 mins  Eating and nutrition and eating constantly while on the bike How her body responded to the challenge  3 phases while doing endurance work:  phase 1, the first 36 hours - feeling great, phase 2 hitting a pain wall which you need to push through, phase 3 -  where you feel like you can go forever, your body has accepted this is just what you do now Going though the pain wall and pain gate  The mind body connection and what was happening mentally Developing a 3 part mantra: focus, discipline and gratitude  The biggest challenge while on the bike  Not being able to tolerate solid foods on day 3 Moving to liquid food - Supported by Huel  Dealing with the sleep deprivation - confusion and falling asleep while on her bike Crashing into a nettle bush and going into hyperglycemic shock  Using blue light to wake her up Being ahead of the record by about 7 hours and 175km - stick to the process Reaching the end  The feelings of relief  Keeping your emotions locked in for 5 days  Being able to relax! 2715 km in 5 days 11 hours 14 minutes. NEW OUTRIGHT RECORD HOLDER Her limits…. Taking the learning and applying it to new projects Recovery after the challenge Getting back on the bike and back in the gym Raising funds for 2 charities  The Bike Project  Bikes for Refugees  How you can connect with Sarah Working on a feature documentary about the challenge - due in early 2026 Final words of advice from Sarah Understand what is most important to you, and curate an objective around that  Demonstrate aggressive patience in pursuit of your goals  Focus on the small wins everyday.   Social Media Instagram @sarah_ruggins   

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: White House digital assets report declares support for self-custody, compares Bitcoin to the internet and railroad Strategy announces record $10 billion profit, smashing Wall Street expectations Bo Hines hints at government buying Bitcoin President Trump fires labor statistics boss Is recession bullish for Bitcoin? ---- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: White House's Digital Assets Working Group Report  Casa CEO Nick Neuman's Tweet on WH Report WH Compares Bitcoin to Railroads and the Internet White House Lays Out Roadmap for Digital Assets Bo Hines Addresses Questions on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve JPMorgan to Enable Crypto Purchases Through Coinbase Transcript of SEC Chairman Atkins' Speech  SEC Chairman Atkins Debuts “Project Crypto” SEC Allows In-Kind Creation/Redemption for Bitcoin ETFs SEC Chair Publicly Supports the Right to Self Custody Brian Armstrong's Tweet About Coinbase's Bitcoin Purchase Coinbase's Q2 2025 Earnings Major Takeaways  Strategy's Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation  Strategy Smashes Wall Street's Earnings Estimates  Strategy Announces New $4.2 Billion Stretch Offering Saylor Calls Stretch Strategy's “iPhone Moment” Lyn Alden's Tweet on Stretch's (STRC) Potential  Metaplanet Announces Preferred Share Issuance  Metaplanet Announces Two Classes of Perpetual Preferreds Fed Governor Exit Could Accelerate Trump's Selection President Trump Fires Labor Statistics Chief  Largest Two-Month BLS Jobs Revision Since 2020 Luke Gromen's Tweet on Trump Firing BLS Chief Market Giving >80% Probability of September Rate Cut Turkish President Fires Statistics Boss After Record Inflation ---- Natalie's Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

How does philosophy inform modern physics? And how do physicists incorporate philosophy into their research? On this episode, we dive into those questions with philosopher Dr. Timothy McGrew and astrophysicist Dr. Luke Barnes in order to help you fine tune your thinking about the fine tuning of the universe. Critics of the fine-tuning argument will often invoke probabilities in order to get around the argument's deeper implication of the existence of God. Tim and Luke will explore some of the issues in probability theory as it informs the physics of the fine-tuning argument. Dr. Timothy McGrew https://timothymcgrew.com/ Timothy McGrew is Professor of Philosophy at Western Michigan University, where he has taught for the past 25 years. His research interests include formal epistemology, the history and philosophy of science, and the history and philosophy of religion. When he is not doing philosophy, he enjoys playing chess online, coaching at his local chess club, running trails, and making high quality paper airplanes. He lives in SW Michigan with his wife, Lydia McGrew, and their daughters. Dr. Luke Barnes. https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/luke/ Dr Luke A. Barnes is a Senior Lecturer in Physics at Western Sydney University. With a PhD in astronomy from the University of Cambridge, he has published papers in the field of galaxy formation and on the fine-tuning of the Universe for life. He is the coauthor with Prof. Geraint Lewis of A Fortunate Universe: Life in a Finely-Tuned Cosmos and The Cosmic Revolutionary's Handbook: (Or: How to Beat the Big Bang), published by Cambridge University Press. Free Articles from Watchman Fellowship Naturalism: https://www.watchman.org/Naturalism/ProfileNaturalism.pdf Scientism: https://www.watchman.org/scientism/ProfileScientism.pdf Atheism: https://www.watchman.org/profiles/pdf/atheismprofile.pdf Additional Resources FREE: We are also offering a subscription to our 4-page bimonthly Profiles here: https://www.watchman.org/Free PROFILE NOTEBOOK: Order the complete collection of Watchman Fellowship Profiles (around 700 pages -- from Astrology to Zen Buddhism) in either printed or PDF formats here: https://www.watchman.org/Notebook SUPPORT: Help us create more content like this. Make a tax-deductible donation here: https://www.watchman.org/Give Good Heavens! is a podcast ministry of Watchman Fellowship For more information, visit https://www.watchman.org/ © 2025 Watchman Fellowship, Inc.

In this episode of Retire with Style, Wade Pfau and Alex Murguia tackle listener questions on a range of financial topics, including gold's volatility, alternative investments, and how to measure retirement success. They discuss the realities of investment returns, the impact of recent U.S. bond downgrades, and the importance of understanding risk, using historical data, and maintaining a solid investment strategy in retirement.   Takeaways Gold has lower average returns and higher volatility than stocks. Alternative investments require careful evaluation due to lack of historical data. Quantifying retirement success rates can provide clearer financial goals. The magnitude of failure in financial planning is crucial to understand. Investors should assess the compensated risk of their investments. Monte Carlo simulations can help in understanding potential outcomes. The funded ratio approach simplifies retirement planning. US bond downgrades may not significantly impact long-term market trajectories. Understanding the underlying assumptions of financial plans is essential. Risk assessment is a key component of effective financial planning. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of Q&A Session 02:33 Debating Gold's Volatility and Investment Value 08:56 Exploring Alternative Investments and Their Evaluation 19:03 The Importance of Theoretical Justification in Investments 20:17 Understanding Retirement Planning Tools 23:04 Probability of Success vs. Rate of Return 27:21 Magnitude of Failure in Financial Planning 30:31 The Funded Ratio Approach 34:06 Evaluating Financial Advisors 36:15 Impact of US Bond Downgrades   Links Explore the New RetireWithStyle.com! We've launched a brand-new home for the podcast! Visit RetireWithStyle.com to catch up on all our latest episodes, explore topics by category, and send us your questions or ideas for future episodes. If there's something you've been wondering about retirement, we want to hear it! The Retirement Planning Guidebook: 2nd Edition has just been updated for 2025! Visit your preferred book retailer or simply click here to order your copy today: https://www.wadepfau.com/books/ This episode is sponsored by McLean Asset Management. Visit https://www.mcleanam.com/retirement-income-planning-llm/ to download McLean's free eBook, “Retirement Income Planning”

Devin and Jackson and Az talk about the new wealth of data we've had for 300 modern and the events we've played   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

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Martin Cruz Smith (1942-2025, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky, recorded in the KPFA studio December 9, 2004 while on tour for his novel “Wolves Eat Dogs.” The great noir and detective author Martin Cruz Smith died of Parkinsons Disease on July 11, 2025 at the age of 82.  A journalist originally, and then a writer of paperback fiction under a variety of pseudonyms, he began writing under his own name and became known following the publication of a horror novel, Nightwing, in 1977. Though it wasn't until 1981 with the release of Gorky Park, a detective novel set in Soviet Russia and featuring investigator Arkady Renko, that he hit best-seller stardom. Over the next few years, he alternated non-series novels with entries in the Renko series, all to much acclaim. “Wolves Eat Dogs” is partially set in Ukraine, in and around Chernobyl. In the interview, Bill Smith discusses his own trip to Kyiv and Ukraine, and the politics of the early 2000s, which offers insight into what's happening in 2025. There are four Martin Cruz Smith interviews. The first two, both co-hosted with Richard A. Lupoff for Probabilities, were recorded in 1990 while on tour for Polar Star, the sequel to Gorky Park, and then again in 1996 for the award-winning stand-alone novel, Rose. These interviews have yet to be digitized. This is the third interview. The fourth, for his novel “Tatiana,” was recorded on December 9, 2013. At the time of his death, Martin Cruz Smith had written 15 early novels under a variety of pseudonyms, eleven novels in the Renko series, and seven stand alone novels. The final Renko novel, “Hotel Ukraine,” was published shortly before his death. This interview has never been posted, or aired, in its entirety. The post Martin Cruz Smith (1942-2025) Acclaimed Noir and Literary Novelist appeared first on KPFA.

Discusses what Halakhic treatment of the category "majority" tells us about Halakhic epistemology generally

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Martin Cruz Smith: The Arkady Renko Novels Martin Cruz Smith (1942-2025, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky, recorded in the KPFA studio in 2004 and 2013. The great noir and detective author Martin Cruz Smith died of Parkinsons Disease on July 11, 2025 at the age of 82.  A journalist originally, and then a writer of paperback fiction under a variety of pseudonyms, he began writing under his own name and became known following the publication of a horror novel, Nightwing, in 1977. Though it wasn't until 1981 with the release of Gorky Park, a detective novel set in Soviet Russia and featuring investigator Arkady Renko, that he hit best-seller stardom. Over the next few years, he alternated non-series novels with entries in the Renko series, all to much acclaim. There are four Martin Cruz Smith interviews. The first two, both co-hosted with Richard A. Lupoff for Probabilities, were recorded in 1990 while on tour for Polar Star, the sequel to Gorky Park, and then again in 1996 for the award-winning stand-alone novel, Rose. These interviews have yet to be digitized. Today's program focuses on the two later interviews> Part One: This interview was recorded December 9, 2004 while on the book tour for the Arkady Renko novel, “Wolves Eat Dogs.” Part Two: This interview was recorded December 9, 2013 while on the book tour for the  Arkady Renko novel, “Tatiana.”   Martin Cruz Smith Wikipedia page   Book Interview/Events and Theatre Links Note: Shows may unexpectedly close early or be postponed due to actors' positive COVID tests. Check the venue for closures, ticket refunds, and mask requirements before arrival. Dates are in-theater performances unless otherwise noted. Some venues operate Tuesday – Sunday; others for shorter periods each week. All times Pacific Time. Closing dates are sometimes extended. Book Stores Bay Area Book Festival  See website for highlights from the 110th Annual Bay Area Book Festival, May 31 – June 1, 2025. Book Passage.  Monthly Calendar. Mix of on-line and in-store events. Books Inc.  Mix of on-line and in-store events. The Booksmith.  Monthly Event Calendar. BookShop West Portal. Monthly Event Calendar. Center for Literary Arts, San Jose. See website for Book Club guests in upcoming months. Green Apple Books. Events calendar. Kepler's Books  On-line Refresh the Page program listings. Live Theater Companies Actors Ensemble of Berkeley.  Summers at John Hinkel Park: Cymbeline July 5-20 Sundays 4 pm; The Taming of the Shrew opens August 16. See website for readings and events. Actor's Reading Collective (ARC).  All readings at 7 pm: Appropriate by Brandon Jacob Jenkins, July 20 Aurora, July 21  Z Below. The Best We Could by Emily Feldman, July 27 Aurora, July 28 Z Below; Recipe by Michael Gene Sullivan, August 4 Aurora; August 5 The Magic. African American Art & Culture Complex. See website for calendar. Afro-Solo Theatre Company.See website for calendar. American Conservatory Theatre Golden Thread presents The Return  by Hannah Eady and Edward Mast,  August 7-24, The Garret at the Toni Rembe Theatre; Young Conservatory: Hadestown, Teen Edition, August 8-17, Strand. Kim's Convenience by Ins Choi, Sept 18 – Oct 19, Toni Rembe Theatre. Aurora Theatre  The Search for Signs of Intelligent Life in the Universe by Jane Wagner, with Marga Gomez, July 12 – August 10.  Awesome Theatre Company. See website for information. Berkeley Rep. The Reservoir .by Jake Brasch, Sept. 5 – Oct 12, Peets Theatre. See website for summer events. Berkeley Shakespeare Company See website for upcoming events and productions. Boxcar Theatre. The Illusionist with Kevin Blake, live at the Palace Theatre. Tony Brava Theatre Center: See calendar for events listings. The Heat Will Kill Everything written and performed by Keith Josef Adkins, July 17-19. BroadwaySF: & Juliet, July 1-27, Orpheum. See website for complete listings for the Orpheum, Golden Gate and Curran Theaters. Broadway San Jose:  Moulin Rouge!, The Musical. July 8-13. See website for other events. Center Rep: Indecent by Paula Vogel, September 1 – 28. Lesher Center. Central Stage. See website for upcoming productions, 5221 Central Avenue, Richmond Central Works  The Last Goat by Gary Graves, June 28 – July 27. Cinnabar Theatre. Sherwood: The Adventures of Robin Hood by Ken Ludwig, September  12-28, Sonoma State. Club Fugazi. Dear San Francisco ongoing. Check website for Music Mondays listings. Contra Costa Civic Theatre Pippin, August 30 – Sept. 14. See website for other events. Golden Thread   The Return by Hanna Eady and Edward Mast, August 7 – 24, The Garret at ACT's Toni Rembe Theatre. Hillbarn Theatre: Murder for Two, a musical comedy, October 9 – November 2, 2025. Lorraine Hansberry Theatre. See website for specific workshops and events. Los Altos Stage Company. Guys & Dolls, July 18 – 27, Los Altos Youth Theatre. Lower Bottom Playaz  August Wilson's Two Trains Running, August 8 -31. August Wilson's King Hedley II, November 8 -30. BAM House, Oakland. Magic Theatre. Aztlan by Luis Alfaro, World Premiere, June 25 – July 20 (extended). See website for additional events. Marin Shakespeare Company: Seeds of Time Festival, July 19 – August 3. 514 Fourth Street Theatre, San Rafael. The Tempest,  August 15 -September 14, Forest Meadow Amphitheater. See website for other events. Mission Cultural Center for Latino Arts Upcoming Events Page. New Conservatory Theatre Center (NCTC)  Ride the Cyclone, the musical, July 11 – August 15. New Performance Traditions.  See website for upcoming schedule Oakland Theater Project. Les Blancs (The Whites) by Lorraine Hansberry, July 11 – 27. Odd Salon: Upcoming events in San Francisco & New York, and streaming. Palace of Fine Arts Theater.  See website for event listings. Pear Theater. Constellations by Nick Payne, June 27 – July 20. See website for staged readings and other events. Playful People Productions. See web page for information on upcoming shows. Presidio Theatre. See website for complete schedule of events and performances. Ray of Light: 9 to 5, the Musical. September 2025. Ross Valley Players: See website for New Works Sunday night readings and other events. San Francisco Playhouse. My Fair Lady, July 3 – Sept. 13. SFBATCO.  See website for upcoming streaming and in- theater shows.  Into The Woods, July 25-26, Blue Shield of Caliornia Theaer at YBCA. The Day The Sky Turned Orange by Julius Ernesto, Sept 5 – Oct. 5, Z Space. San Jose Stage Company: See website for events and upcoming season Shotgun Players.  The Magnolia Ballet by Terry Guest, July 12 – August 10. South Bay Musical Theatre:  The Sound of Music, September 27 – October 18. SPARC: Sir John Falstaff and the Merry Wives of Windsor. Outdoors: July 3-27, Darcie Kent Vineyards,  Livermore. Indoors: August 8-24, Village Theatre and Art Gallery, Danville. Stagebridge: See website for events and productions. Storytime every 4th Saturday. The Breath Project. Streaming archive. The Marsh: Calendar listings for Berkeley, San Francisco and Marshstream. Theatre Lunatico See website for upcoming events and producctions. Theatre Rhino  Kyles' by Olivia Bratco, July 3-18.Streaming: Essential Services Project, conceived and performed by John Fisher, all weekly performances now available on demand. TheatreWorks Silicon Valley. New Works Festival, July 25 – August 18. See website for details. Word for Word.  See website for upcoming productions. Misc. Listings: BAMPFA: On View calendar for Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive. Berkeley Symphony: See website for listings. Chamber Music San Francisco: Calendar, 2025 Season. Dance Mission Theatre. On stage events calendar. Fort Mason Center. Events calendar. Oregon Shakespeare Festival: Calendar listings and upcoming shows. San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus. See schedule for upcoming SFGMC performances. San Francisco Opera. Calendar listings. San Francisco Symphony. Calendar listings. Filmed Live Musicals: Searchable database of all filmed live musicals, podcast, blog. If you'd like to add your bookstore or theater venue to this list, please write Richard@kpfa.org                                   .   . The post July 17, 2025: Martin Cruz Smith (1942-2025) Acclaimed Noir and Literary Novelist appeared first on KPFA.

Idaho Department of Water Resources hydrologist Dave Hoekema talks about the water situation in Idaho and it ain't pretty.

John Evans was one of Howard Browne's many pseudonyms Even during his lifetime, Howard Browne (1908-1999) was not well known outside of his given fields. His novels, including his best detective fiction, were written under pseudonyms, and his work as editor and Hollywood writer, through credited, remained mostly unknown, except by those in the business. During his long lifetime Browne published hundreds of stories in science fiction and detective magazines, along with several novels. He wrote dozens of television shows including Mission Impossible, Run for Your Life, Maverick and Cheyenne, and three of his film scripts were produced: Portrait of a Mobster with Vic Morrow; The St. Valentine's Day Massacre with Jason Robards and George Segal; and Capone, starring Ben Gazzara. He also wrote radio scripts in the late 1940s. His day job, before he went to Hollywood, was as an associate editor under Ray Palmer and then editor for Ziff-Davis pulp magazines, which included Amazing Stories, Fantastic Adventures and other lesser known fiction magazines. Richard A. Lupoff interviewed Howard Browne at Browne's home in Southern California some time in the mid 1980s (the cassettes aren't labeled). This was Browne's only radio interview, and only the second extant interview on record (the other appeared in Locus Magazine). After he retired, Howard Browne taught a couple of college classes and worked on a big Chicago novel that never saw publication. Most of his work is out of print today, though his four noir novels, in the style of Raymond Chandler and featuring a detective named Paul Pine, are available in a small press edition published this past spring by Haffner Press, with an introduction by Richard A. Lupoff. If you go to Imdb, you'll find a long list of his television shows, many of which can be found streaming. Curiously, his novel Thin Air formed the basis for his first television credit, on the show Climax in 1955, and his last, for an episode of Simon and Simon in 1982. Thin Air was also the basis for an episode on yet a third program, The Rockford Files. Two minor points: Browne says he never wrote for Hawaiian Eye, yet IMDb claims he wrote an episode, and he says he retired in 1973 but his credits extend to 1975. Howard Browne IMDb page Howard Browne Wikipedia page   The post The Probabilities Archive: Howard Browne (1908-1999) Pulp Editor and Writer appeared first on KPFA.

Could a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping be on the horizon? Secretary of State Marco Rubio says it's a "high probability." It follows Rubio's meeting with China's top diplomat—details on that, coming up. The Trump administration is working to ban ownership of U.S. farmland by Chinese nationals. But that's just one piece of the bigger picture when it comes to keeping America's food supply safe. The Pentagon is becoming the top stakeholder in the United States' largest rare earths miner. This deal is a key step toward securing America's rare earths supply amid challenges from China. And are trade tensions between the U.S. and Brazil pushing South America's largest economy closer to China? A Brazilian expert says yes—and shares more about China's rising influence in the region. The United States names China a key threat during a meeting of top military chiefs from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. At the same time, a B-52 bomber made a rare flight this year over the Korean Peninsula.  

00:00 Intro01:28 Rubio: 'High Probability' Trump, Xi Will Meet This Year03:45 Vietnam Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on China04:11 Trump Admin. Outlines Plans to Protect U.S. Farmland09:17 Pentagon Takes Top Stake in Largest U.S. Rare Earth Miner11:46 U.S., Japan, S. Korea Hold Joint Air Drills With B-52 Bomber13:43 U.S., Japan, and Australia Sign Naval Logistics Deal14:10 U.S., S. Korea Team Up on Shipbuilding to Challenge China14:37 Taiwan Conducts Live-Fire Exercises to Counter China16:22 Ukraine to Sanction Chinese Companies Arming Russia16:57 Brazil Explainer: Tariffs, Rare Earths, and China Relations19:50 TikTok Faces 2nd Probe by EU Watchdog

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions. Further Reading: From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This conversation explores the intricate relationship between mathematics and artificial intelligence (AI) for people who don't want to get too math heavy and want things simplified as much as possible. It delves into how algorithms, machine learning, and various mathematical tools like linear algebra, calculus, and statistics form the backbone of AI technologies. The discussion highlights real-world applications of AI, the ethical implications of its use, and the importance of mathematical literacy in an increasingly AI-driven world. Ultimately, it emphasizes that understanding the mathematical foundations of AI empowers individuals to engage meaningfully with technology and its impact on society.Takeaways: Mathematics powers seemingly magical technologies like AI. Algorithms are sets of instructions that guide AI processes. Machine learning finds patterns in data through trial and error. Linear algebra organizes data into vectors and matrices. Calculus helps AI find optimal solutions to problems. Probability theory allows AI to express uncertainty in predictions. AI applications include medical diagnostics and financial algorithms. Self-driving cars use mathematics to navigate and make decisions. Mathematical literacy is crucial in an AI-driven world. Understanding AI's math gives individuals agency in technology.Chapters: 00:00 The Mathematical Heart of AI03:28 Mathematics in Action: Real-World Applications05:33 Empowerment Through Understanding MathematicsSubscribe to Breaking Math wherever you get your podcasts.Become a patron of Breaking Math for as little as a buck a monthFollow Breaking Math on Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, Website, YouTube, TikTokFollow Autumn on Twitter and InstagramBecome a guest hereemail: breakingmathpodcast@gmail.com

Commentary by Dr. Jian'an Wang.

Sam Dogen, founder of Financial Samurai and one of the original F.I.R.E. voices, joins Ryan Sean Adams to break down the path to financial independence, whether you're investing in crypto or other asset classes. They unpack 10 milestones to millionaire status, from mindset and momentum to investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. Sam and Ryan go deep on how to avoid financial landmines, get on the same page with a partner, and define a life where money serves purpose, not the other way around. If you want your net worth to grow without losing your life to the grind, this episode is your roadmap. ------

Devin and Jackson and Az talk about US Nats, we didn't manage to record an episode before it happened and honestly couldn't have predicted this meta anyway   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

#IRAN: BDA LOW PROBABILITY. COLONEL JEFF MCCAUSLAND , USA (RETIRED) @MCCAUSLJ @CBSNEWS @DICKINSONCOL 1870 TEHRAN

On this episode: Welcome to episode 370 of The Rise & Grind Podcast! This week, Roderick & Cari talk beef between Pusha T & Travis Scott, B-Dot's mid-year top 10, President Trump orders missile strikes to Iran, NBA Finals Game 7, & much more.   Intro: Offset & JID- Bodies   Roderick | Meek Mill- 5 AM IN PHILLY   Cari | Rory- Off Road (feat. Masego & Freddie Gibbs)   Subscribe to Apple Music now to hear all of the new albums & tracks we discuss: https://apple.co/3NgdXW

June 20, 2025 - Season 15, Episode 150 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Friday episode, Alex Kozora and I get right to talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers cutting ties with veteran RB Jonathan Ward on Thursday. We go over the decision to release Ward, where that leaves the Steelers running back room, and what it means for a few others in that position group as far as potential goes the rest of the offseason. There's nothing new to report on the contract details for S DeShon Elliott, who was signed to a two-year extension earlier this week. We get that tidbit out of the way early in this show. The Baltimore Ravens signed veteran CB Jaire Alexander to a one-year contract this week, so Alex and I discuss that transaction. We talk about the contract details related to Alexander and why he likely decided to sign with Baltimore. We discuss whether the Steelers likely had any interest in signing Alexander and what a contract likely would have needed to look like for that to even happen. With there being quite a bit of buzz this week concerning the Steelers possible trading for veteran Miami Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey, Alex and I decide to address that topic quite extensively during this show. We go over Ramsey's contract, the cost to acquire him via a trade and much more. We look at the probability and plausibility concerning the likelihood the Steelers would ultimately trade for Ramsey. Alex has some interesting stats concerning the potential usage of new Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell in 2025, so we go over that nice pull by him. Alex and I also dive deep into the historical nature of the Steelers scoring a touchdown on their opening offensive possession in Week One games. This 86-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap. We end this show by answering several emails we received from listeners of the show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“United States soybean seed protein concentrations – current status, challenges and some potential crop management solutions” with Dr. Anuj Chiluwal. Soybeans are a crucial crop in the United States for a variety of uses, including for its use as a protein source in animal feed. However, in recent years, high yield varieties have seen a steady decline in seed protein concentration. In this episode, Anuj joins me to discuss the sources of this decline and some potential strategies to combat it. Tune in to learn: ·         Why soybean seed protein is declining in US soybean ·         How the US may be a template for other countries with similar problems ·         What temporary solutions may be available for this problem ·         Which future research paths may bring about more sustainable solutions If you would like more information about this topic, this episode's paper is available here: https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.21731 This paper is always freely available. Contact us at podcast@sciencesocieties.org or on Twitter @FieldLabEarth if you have comments, questions, or suggestions for show topics, and if you want more content like this don't forget to subscribe. If you'd like to see old episodes or sign up for our newsletter, you can do so here: https://fieldlabearth.libsyn.com/. If you would like to reach out to Anuj, you can find him here: anuj.chiluwal@kysu.edu https://www.kysu.edu/directory/faculty-staff/anuj-chiluwal.php https://www.linkedin.com/in/anuj-chiluwal/ Resources CEU Quiz: Coming soon Transcripts: https://www.rev.com/app/captions/Njg1MWI0MjE2MDAzODViYzNhZjVkNjYzWE4wOEZYc1pLNHNQ/o/Q1AwMTA4NTk3MzE4 “Soybean management for seed composition: The perspective of U.S. farmers” paper: https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.21082 “Exploring Nitrogen Limitation for Historical and Modern Soybean Genotypes” paper: https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2018.04.0271 “Quantification of Soybean Leaf Senescence and Maturation as Impacted by Soil- and Foliar-Applied Nitrogen” paper: https://doi.org/10.2134/cftm2018.07.0051 “Probability of Yield Response to Inoculants in Fields with a History of Soybean” paper: https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2009.04.0185 “Late-Season Nitrogen Applications Increase Soybean Yield and Seed Protein Concentration” paper: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2021.715940 “Is soybean yield limited by nitrogen supply?” paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.08.009 “Assessing Variation in US Soybean Seed Composition (Protein and Oil)” paper: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00298 “Regional analysis of planting date and cultivar maturity recommendations that improve soybean oil yield and meal protein concentration” paper: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.954111 Extension fact sheet: https://www.kysu.edu/documents/college-of-agriculture-communities-the-sciences/2025-Fact%20Sheet%20Soybean%20Seed%20Quality.pdf University of Minnesota annual soybean quality reports: https://extension.umn.edu/soybean/soybean-seed-quality Thank you to our volunteer Om Prakash Ghimire for help with the shownotes and other assets. Thank you to Cole Shalk from 12twelve Media for the Audio Processing on today's episode. Field, Lab, Earth is Copyrighted by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

This is a link post. Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors. I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I'm not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article. Note that the majority of this article was written before Eli's updated model was released (the site was updated june 8th). His new model improves on some of my objections, but the majority still stand. Introduction: AI 2027 is an article written by the “AI futures team”. The primary piece is a short story penned by Scott Alexander, depicting a month by month scenario of a near-future where AI becomes superintelligent in 2027,proceeding to automate the entire economy in only [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Introduction:(05:27) Part 1: Time horizons extension model(05:33) Overview of their forecast(10:23) The exponential curve(13:25) The superexponential curve(20:20) Conceptual reasons:(28:38) Intermediate speedups(36:00) Have AI 2027 been sending out a false graph?(41:50) Some skepticism about projection(46:13) Part 2: Benchmarks and gaps and beyond(46:19) The benchmark part of benchmark and gaps:(52:53) The time horizon part of the model(58:02) The gap model(01:00:58) What about Eli's recent update?(01:05:19) Six stories that fit the data(01:10:46) ConclusionThe original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KgejNns3ojrvCfFbi/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models Linkpost URL:https://titotal.substack.com/p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-bad-timeline --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

What happens when we take numbers seriously—not just at face value, but in terms of their actual impact on our lives? This week, Reid and Aria are joined by UK-based mathematician and media personality Hannah Fry to explore this deceptively simple question. From cancer diagnoses to dating apps, Hannah makes the case that understanding the math behind our decisions—and the "game" we're really playing—is essential to building a better future.  They discuss why regret minimization is often a better guide than raw percentages in assessing risks; Hannah's advice on finding love in a sea of swipe-rights; and how a well-framed question can be more powerful than the right answer. Plus, Inflection's Pi chimes in with a few Jane-Austen-themed math jokes. For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 3:01 - Hellos and intros 3:15 - Considering hairdressing, instant feedback, and becoming a broadcaster 5:11 - Making math emotionally resonant 7:37 - Math as power and who gets to shape the future 9:10 - Understanding AI through probabilities and spectrums 12:01 - The emotional limits of statistics in medical decision-making 16:22 - Choosing the right “game” to optimize for 19:57 - How to build systems that self-correct 23:19 - Rethinking education and assessments in the AI era 26:42 - Updating dating advice for the AI age 30:03 - Real-life “Black Mirror” 36:11 - Storytelling vs. statistics 41:47 - Probability thinking, AI confidence, and useful heuristics 45:31 - Pi delivers math-themed Jane Austen jokes 47:15 - Rapid-fire questions Select mentions:  Google DeepMind: The Podcast The Mathematics of Love TED Talk When We Cease to Understand the World by Benjamín Labatut “Women also Snowboard: Overcoming Bias in Captioning Models” by Kaylee Burns, Lisa Anne Hendricks, Kate Saenko, Trevor Darrell, and Anna Rohrbach Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Each episode seeks to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

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Episode 126: In this episode of Critical Thinking - Bug Bounty Podcast we wrap up Rez0's AI miniseries ‘Vulnus Ex Machina'. Part 3 includes a showcase of AI Vulns that Rez0 himself has found, and how much they paid out.Follow us on twitter at: https://x.com/ctbbpodcastGot any ideas and suggestions? Feel free to send us any feedback here: info@criticalthinkingpodcast.ioShoutout to YTCracker for the awesome intro music!====== Links ======Follow your hosts Rhynorater and Rez0 on Twitter: https://x.com/Rhynoraterhttps://x.com/rez0__====== Ways to Support CTBBPodcast ======Hop on the CTBB Discord at https://ctbb.show/discord!We also do Discord subs at $25, $10, and $5 - premium subscribers get access to private masterclasses, exploits, tools, scripts, un-redacted bug reports, etc.You can also find some hacker swag at https://ctbb.show/merch!Today's Sponsor - ThreatLocker Web Controlhttps://www.criticalthinkingpodcast.io/tl-webcontrol====== Resources ======Claude Code System PromptAttacking AI AgentsProbability of HacksNew Gemini for Workspace Vulnerability Enabling Phishing & Content ManipulationHow to Hack AI Agents and Applications====== Timestamps ======(00:00:00) Introduction(00:02:53) NahamCon Recap, Claude news, and wunderwuzzi writeups (00:08:57) Probability of Hacks(00:11:27) First AI Vulnerabilities(00:18:57) AI Vulns on Google (00:25:11) Invisible prompt Injection

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 265 to discuss the economy and his new book "Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Hanke warns of an 80% recession probability by year-end, driven by regime uncertainty from Trump's policy changes and money supply contraction since April 2022. He critiques the Federal Reserve's narrow focus on interest rates while ignoring quantitative tightening and argues for putting money supply and commercial banks back at the center of monetary policy. Hanke explains how Fed policies create wealth inequality by inflating asset prices that benefit the rich, advocating for "neutrality" as the goal of monetary policy. He dismisses Trump's "big beautiful bill" as fiscally irresponsible and calls for a constitutional convention to implement a Swiss-style debt brake. The conversation covers his new book's thesis that monetary policy should focus on money supply growth rather than interest rates, with commercial banks producing 80% of the money supply through lending.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/139425726000:00 - Introduction of Professor Steve Hanke 01:28 - Regime uncertainty concept and Trump's policy changes 03:52 - Tariffs as taxes on international transactions 06:20 - 80% recession probability by end of year 08:31 - Money supply contraction since April 2022 10:51 - Bubble indicator and market complacency discussion 12:52 - Family call interruption from Dominican Republic 13:24 - Market in bubble territory explanation 16:11 - Federal Reserve critique and FOMC meeting outlook 18:27 - Quantitative tightening vs interest rate focus 19:04 - Three pillars of the book's thesis 25:46 - Neutrality as monetary policy objective 29:30 - How Fed policy creates wealth inequality 32:15 - Catalyst for writing the book 37:09 - "Big beautiful bill" critique and fiscal concerns 42:34 - Swiss debt brake constitutional solution 46:25 - Key prices to watch: gold, 10-year yields, dollar-euro, stocks

Baseball Is Dead Episode #347 Denzel Clarke made one of the greatest catches you'll ever see which was graded at a 95% catch probability. WTF? -Dallas Vs Catch Probability -Roman Anthony Debut -Jazz Is Mad -Alcántara Bounce Back? -Ohtani Pitching Soon? -BAINES METER -Braves Cut Kimbrel Use promo code “Jared” to get up to $1000 in bonus credits AND a special pick on Underdog! PLAY HERE: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/pc-d2PyPbHAPu BID MERCH: https://baseballisdeadmerch.com Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code BID for $20 off your first purchase. Fetch a FREE Jumpstart Trial Bag for your Dog. Go to https://RuffGreens.com and use promo code “BID.” 0:00 - Jared's Bad Wrist 3:25 - Catch Probability 17:12 - Roman Anthony Debut 21:58 - Jazz Is Mad 35:30 - Solo Jayhay Show 39:33 - Alcántara Bounce Back? 43:00 - Family Feud 1:01:52 - Ohtani Pitching Soon? 1:13:43 - Baines Meter 1:17:11 - Braves Cut Kimbrel 1:23:41 - Jayhay Nuggs 1:27:04 - Final Thoughts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When deadlines loom, it's easy for data scientists to fall into the trap of cutting corners and bending analyses to deliver what stakeholders want. But what if a simple framework could help you maintain quality under pressure while preserving your professional integrity?In this Value Boost episode, Dr. Brian Godsey joins Dr. Genevieve Hayes to reveal his powerful "Knowledge first, Technology second, Opinions third" hierarchy - a  framework that will transform how you handle stakeholder pressure without compromising your standards.In this episode, you'll discover:Why this critical hierarchy gets dangerously inverted when deadlines loom and how to prevent it from undermining your credibility [01:05]How to resist the career-limiting trap of cherry-picking facts that merely support executive opinions [04:09]A practical note-taking technique that keeps you anchored to reality when stakeholders push for convenient answers [06:04]The one transformative habit that separates truly valuable data scientists from those who merely validate existing assumptions [07:17]Guest BioDr Brian Godsey is a Data Science Lead at AI platform as a service company DataStax. He is also the author of Think Like a Data Scientist and holds a PhD in Mathematical Statistics and Probability.LinksBrian's websiteConnect with Brian on LinkedInConnect with Genevieve on LinkedInBe among the first to hear about the release of each new podcast episode by signing up HERE

Seth and Sean get petty about the Astros broadcast continuing to bring up this BS catch probability stat, Mad Dog being petty about the Knicks firing Thibs, Brian Windhorst saying the USA vs the World All-Star game plan in the NBA is a way to shame the players into participating, and Kirk Minihane yelling at his producer.

In this round table discussion with Ivan Phillips and Sadia Naeem, we begin by discussing differing viewpoints on “third way evolution,” or a gene-centric viewpoint vs a more holistic view of natural selection. The discussion evolves into a deep dive into emergence and reductionism and many interwoven ideas.Ivan Phillips is author of Textbook Rationality about rationality education, and a new book titled Counterargument from Design that counters arguments for design in evolution. Sadia Naeem, like Ivan, has a PhD has in physics and is interested in the most far-reaching ideas across many domains regarding the fabric of our reality. Both have been on the podcast numerous times before. ⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠Ivan's "Probability and Purpose: A Refutation of Divine Intent"Ivan's "Textbook Rationality"

Could the architecture of the mind truly contain the code for future events? Is it plausible that consciousness can learn to navigate its own internal projections as if they were real places, or that our deepest urges are but echoes of a timeless, universal script?​​If you are having a mental health crisis and need immediate help, please go to ​ ​​https://troubledminds.org/help/ and call somebody right now. Reaching out for support is a sign of strength. ​ ​​​LIVE ON Digital Radio! Http://bit.ly/40KBtlW ​ ​ ​​http://www.troubledminds.net or ​ ​​https://www.troubledminds.org ​ ​Support The Show! ​ ​ ​https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/troubled-minds-radio--4953916/support ​ ​​https://ko-fi.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://patreon.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://www.buymeacoffee.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://troubledfans.com ​ ​Friends of Troubled Minds! - ​ ​ ​https://troubledminds.org/friends ​ ​Show Schedule Sun--Tues--Thurs--Fri 7-10pst ​iTunes - ​ ​​https://apple.co/2zZ4hx6 ​Spotify - ​ ​​https://spoti.fi/2UgyzqM ​TuneIn - ​ ​​https://bit.ly/2FZOErS ​Twitter - ​ ​​https://bit.ly/2CYB71U​​​----------------------------------------​​https://troubledminds.substack.com/p/architects-of-probability-from-dopamine​​https://neurosciencenews.com/dopamine-future-reward-29218/​​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnosis_(chaos_magic)​​https://www.verywellmind.com/what-are-jungs-4-major-archetypes-2795439​​https://traumaresearchuk.org/ras-reticular-activating-system/​​

Preview: Colleague Bob Zimmerman updates the probability of the Andromeda Galaxy colliding with our Milky Way. More later. UNDATED

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.0:00 Intro3:50 Distributions1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike1:18:44 Poker Scandal1:39:33 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/ Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjWant to work with my betting group?: john@goldenpants.comWant 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

The data science world has always been obsessed with tools and techniques - a fixation that's only intensified in the era of generative AI. Yet even as ChatGPT and similar technologies transform the landscape, the fundamental challenge remains the same - turning technical capabilities into business results requires a process most data scientists never learned.In this episode, Dr. Brian Godsey joins Dr. Genevieve Hayes to discuss why the scientific process behind data science remains more critical than ever, sharing how his original "Think Like a Data Scientist" framework has evolved to harness today's powerful AI capabilities while maintaining the principles that drive real business values.This conversation reveals:Why the seemingly basic question "Where do I start?" continues to derail data scientists' effectiveness and how mastering the right process can transform your impact [01:15]The three stages of the data science process that remain essential for career success even as AI dramatically changes how quickly you can execute them [11:07]How the accessibility revolution of generative AI creates new career opportunities for data scientists in organizations that previously couldn't leverage advanced analytics [18:34]The underrated troubleshooting skill that will make you invaluable as organizations increasingly rely on "black box" AI models for business-critical decisions [20:21]Guest BioDr Brian Godsey is a Data Science Lead at AI platform as a service company DataStax. He is also the author of Think Like a Data Scientist and holds a PhD in Mathematical Statistics and Probability.LinksBrian's websiteConnect with Brian on LinkedInConnect with Genevieve on LinkedInBe among the first to hear about the release of each new podcast episode by signing up HERE

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On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China's massive local debt crisis, the CCP's views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more.Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US?(00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions(00:21:07) – Xi's right hand man in charge of AGI(00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy(00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis(00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression(00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding(01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion(01:18:56) – Succession after Xi(01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Every time you see an apple spontaneously break away from a tree, it falls downward. You therefore claim that there is a law of physics: apples fall downward from trees. But how can you really know? After all, tomorrow you might see an apple that falls upward. How is science possible at all? Philosophers, as you might expect, have thought hard about this. Branden Fitelson explains how a better understanding of probability can help us decide when new evidence is actually confirming our beliefs.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/05/19/315-branden-fitelson-on-the-logic-and-use-of-probability/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Branden Fitelson received a Ph.D. in philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Philosophy at Northeastern University. He is a co-founder of the Formal Epistemology Workshop, and winner of the 2020 Wolfram Innovator Award.Web siteNortheastern web pagePhilPapers profileGoogle Scholar publicationsWikipediaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

May 19, 2025 - Season 15, Episode 135 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning episode, which was recorded Sunday night, Alex Kozora and I get right into talking about the latest rumor concerning the Pittsburgh Steelers possibly trading for New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave. Alex and I look at all angles related to Olave and that includes his contract, his health, the Saints wide receiver depth chart, and much more. We go over what a few beat writers that cover the Saints think about the possibility of Olave being traded as well. As a whole, Alex and I come to the conclusion that the Steelers are very unlikely to trade for Olave this summer. Alex and I then go over a short list of wide receivers that the Steelers might consider trading for this offseason if Olave winds up being unobtainable. Will and should the Steelers sign WR Calvin Austin III to a contract extension this offseason? Alex and I attempt to answer those questions during this show. We also look at the overall probability that Austin will be signed to an extension this offseason. We discuss what a strong 2025 season would look like for Austin as well. Is there a drop-dead date for veteran free agent QB Aaron Rodgers when it comes to the Steelers needing a decision from him? Alex and I attempt to answer that question during this show. Alex and I later provide our top-five outside additions the Steelers have made so far this offseason either through free agency or the draft. Much later in this show, Alex and I discuss the possibility of rookie QB Will Howard seeing playing time in 2025 based on history of third-string quarterbacks being needed around the NFL in recent seasons. This 83-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap as well. We end this show by answering several emails we received from listeners of the show. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As a CFO, how should the way you navigate risk and return change from venture-backed companies to publicly-traded companies to private equity companies? To answer this question, CJ speaks with Mohit Daswani, a seasoned CFO with experience across multiple stages, including roles as CFO of Payments, Platform, and Risk at PayPal, and Head of Finance & Strategy at Square. Mohit shares the lessons learned from his time at Square, including when Jack Dorsey seeded a second billion-dollar business from within the company, and his experience at PayPal when they spun out from eBay under activist pressure. The conversation also covers the Rule of 40 in the different financial models, the dangers of using valuation as a scorecard, how founders should reset their mindset on what defines success, and the likelihood of a super app for the USA.—LINKS:Mohit Daswani on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohitdaswani1/SimplePractice: https://www.simplepractice.com/CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: http://mostlymetrics.comRELATED EPISODES:From CF-No to CF-Go: Serial CFO Michael Bayer's Guide to Hypergrowth: Inside Grab: How a Super App Transformed Southeast Asia — with CFO Peter Oey: —Timestamps:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:42) Sponsor – Planful | Tabs | Rippling Spend(06:36) Mohit's Office and a Tip From Churchill(09:07) Risk and Return in Different Investment Models(13:05) Financial Discipline Versus Room for Growth in Venture-Backed Companies(16:30) Sponsor – Pulley | Tropic | NetSuite(20:25) Balancing Short-Term Performance and Long-Term Bets in the PE Space(24:00) The Rule of 40 in Different Financial Models(30:19) What People Get Wrong About the Private Equity Model(34:40) The Benefits of Using Leverage(37:41) The Dangers of Using Valuation as a Scorecard(41:41) How Founders Should Reset Their Mindset on What Constitutes Success(44:00) Being at Square When Jack Dorsey Seeded a Second Billion-Dollar Business(49:43) Being at PayPal When They Spun Out From eBay(53:59) PayPal's Acquisition of Braintree(55:48) The Probability of a Super App for the USA(58:38) Learnings From Launching PayPal's Payments Dongle in Japan(1:04:12) Long-Ass Lightning Round: A Flight Mistake(1:06:20) Advice to Younger Self(1:07:31) Finance Software Stack(1:09:28) Craziest Expense Story—SPONSORS:Planful's financial planning software can transform your FP&A function. Built for speed, accuracy, and confidence, you'll be planning your way to success and have time left over to actually put it to work. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Tabs is a platform that brings all of your revenue-facing data and workflows - billing, AR, payments, rev rec, and reporting - onto a single system so you can automate and be more flexible. Find out more at: tabs.inc/metrics.Rippling Spend is a spend management software that gives you complete visibility and automated policy controls across every type of spend, saving you time and money. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: pulley.com/mostlymetrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. Take control of your spend with intelligent spend management at tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics.NetSuite is an AI-powered business management suite, encompassing ERP/Financials, CRM, and ecommerce for more than 41,000 customers. If you're looking for an ERP, head to https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning.#VentureCapital #PrivateEquity #RiskManagement #RuleOf40 #PayPal Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

On Today's show Shannon is joined by filmmaker Austin Wolff to discuss his new film, Wally Jackson and the Probability of Love and Car Accidents.  Today's jargon is Authentic Representation.

May 19, 2025 - Zach and Chase break down the daily dots from today's action. Register now for Zach's upcoming live webinar - this Thursday. Sign up at KnowYourRiskRadio.com. 

Jeffrey and Cindy came to me with $3 million saved and one big question: How much can we actually spend in retirement? In this video, we walk through a retirement planning scenario—looking at spending goals, taxes, travel, healthcare, and how Social Security might factor in.While the numbers vary, the framework we use applies whether you're working with $300,000 or $30 million. We explore how to think about sustainable withdrawal rates, portfolio flexibility, and trade-offs between spending today and planning for tomorrow.This isn't just about getting by—it's about using what you've saved to live intentionally. And just as important, it's about avoiding the regret of leaving money (and meaningful experiences) unused.If you're thinking about how to align your spending with your values in retirement, this conversation is for you.Questions we explore:How can I estimate a sustainable spending level in retirement?How do I balance enjoying life now with preserving assets for the future? Submit your request to join James:On the Ready For Retirement podcast: Apply HereOn a Retirement Makeover episode: Apply HereTimestamps:0:00 - Jeffrey and Cindy's plan3:24 - Understand cash flows5:45 - Projected portfolio withdrawals7:22 - Probability of success9:26 - Monitor your withdrawal rate11:12 - Key takeaway13:26 - Wrap-upCreate Your Custom Strategy ⬇️ Get Started Here.Join the new Root Collective HERE!

A Note from James:So I gave a little talk at the Full Stack Business Builder Conference. Basically, a conference for entrepreneurs, VCs, technologists, aspiring entrepreneurs. It was more of a Q&A, where the moderator, Peter Satton, asked me questions, but also took questions from the audience.A big concern for many people was, what if I have no qualifications at what I'm interested in doing? And I have to admit, I've probably never been qualified for anything I've ever done. I described how that's actually helped me achieve certain goals and ambitions of mine, even though I had no qualifications.I also talk about the importance of obsession—let's call it rational obsession—and how to find those things you're passionate about. Among other things, I shared a quasi-religious belief I hold dear and attribute much of my success to.I hope you have as much fun listening to this as I did talking about it. Definitely, there are some new and interesting stories, as well as experiences I wanted to share. Here it is.Episode Description:In this fireside chat recorded at the Full Stack Business Builder Conference, James Altucher addresses a fundamental concern for entrepreneurs: succeeding without traditional qualifications. James candidly explores his journey through immense financial losses and recoveries, emphasizing the critical role optimism and creativity have played. He shares practical insights into leveraging idea generation as a way out of depression and stagnation. James illustrates how choosing oneself, rather than waiting for validation, opens unprecedented opportunities. From starting businesses with no experience, to unexpected pivots that lead to multimillion-dollar successes, James underscores the power of actionable optimism and consistent discipline.What You'll Learn:How rational optimism and creativity are key tools to overcome financial and emotional setbacks.The discipline of daily idea generation as a foundational practice for entrepreneurial success.The practical meaning of "choosing yourself" in a digital age where traditional gatekeepers are irrelevant.Strategies to effectively network by being useful, rather than asking for favors.Deciding when to persevere or pivot in business, guided by passion and market response.Timestamped Chapters:[00:00] Introduction to the Talk[01:48] Starting the Fireside Chat[02:36] Recovering from Financial Losses[05:24] The Power of Ideas[12:30] Choosing Yourself in the Modern World[19:13] Networking and Building Relationships[29:34] Maintaining Internal Integrity[32:46] The Importance of Sleep in Tournaments[33:26] Mental and Emotional Preparation[33:59] The Role of Luck and Probability[35:10] Networking and Socializing Strategies[35:49] Overcoming Introversion[36:39] Standup Comedy Journey[39:28] Starting a Business with Northwest Registered Agent[41:06] Passion for Standup Comedy[45:29] Building Meaningful Business Connections[49:58] Deciding When to Persevere or Pivot[58:03] Is College a Scam?[62:44] Conclusion and Final ThoughtAdditional Resources:Full Stack Business BuilderDan Carlin's Hardcore HistoryGeorge Lois – "Damn Good Advice (For People with Talent!)"See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don McDonald and Tom Cock discuss practical strategies for navigating recessions without panic or unnecessary market timing. They critique the constant, fear-driven speculation around economic downturns and emphasize maintaining a disciplined, long-term approach. Highlighting actual investor behavior from Dalbar studies, they explain why market timing almost always results in poorer returns. Tom humorously criticizes aggressive pickup truck drivers and touches on avoiding common recession-investing mistakes, advocating instead for careful asset allocation, understanding emotional risk tolerance, and maintaining a sensible emergency fund. Listener questions prompt discussions on treasury ladders versus bond funds, the impact of expense ratios, and effective short-term cash management. 0:10 Surviving and thriving during recessions 0:26 Probability of recession discussions 1:04 Don criticizes recession scare tactics 1:46 Humorous digression about pickup trucks 2:49 Audience wants solutions, not problems 3:48 Avoiding common recession investing mistakes 4:39 Wall Street Journal example of market timing errors 5:29 Importance of emergency cash for retirees 6:04 Risk versus loss in investing 6:28 Understanding emotional risk tolerance 8:01 Critique of Wall Street's short-term focus 8:36 Long-term investing approach regardless of recession 9:01 Dalbar study reveals poor market-timing results 10:51 Long-term Dalbar investor returns vs. market returns 13:09 Humorous tangent on global population 13:44 Listener questions segment begins 14:33 Discussing asset allocation and bond fund concerns 16:18 Bond ladder vs. bond fund debate 17:20 Examining long-term bond fund returns 18:09 Benefits and drawbacks of bond funds 19:28 Comparing money market fund options (DTAXX) 21:06 Expense ratios significantly impact returns Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices