Podcasts about Probability

In this episode,  I talk about increasing the probability of success.

Where did probability come from? In this episode, Brad Harris explores how the invention of probability reshaped humanity's relationship with uncertainty—and why artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately runs on the same mathematics of prediction. For most of human history, the future was not something people tried to calculate. It was fate, providence, or the will of the gods. Then in the summer of 1654, two French mathematicians—Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat—began exchanging letters about a gambling problem. From that correspondence emerged one of the most powerful ideas in human history: probability. Once uncertainty could be quantified, the consequences were enormous. Insurance markets became possible. Medical treatments could be tested through clinical trials. Governments began measuring populations statistically. Engineers could calculate risk and safety margins. Modern science itself increasingly relied on statistical reasoning. But the story doesn't end there. Today, the same probabilistic thinking underlies the most powerful technology ever created: artificial intelligence. Large language models like ChatGPT are fundamentally prediction engines—systems trained to calculate what words are most likely to come next. From ancient gambling games to modern AI, this episode explores how the invention of probability transformed the modern world—and why we are now living inside the most powerful prediction machines ever built. If you like Context with Brad Harris, you can help keep the show going and access bonus episodes through Patreon or by subscribing through Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  Find Brad Harris on X @bradcoleharris

If buyers are predicting the future… and confidence determines when they act… what are they actually paying for? In Episode 3 of the Buyer Decision Series, Mark Stiving and Rebecca Kalogeris explore the next piece of the puzzle; and challenge a common assumption about value. Because what buyers pay for may not be what you think. Discover what buyers are really evaluating; and why understanding it can completely change how you talk about value and pricing.   Why You Have to Listen: Understand what buyers are really paying for—and why it's rarely the product itself Learn the Second Law of Value and how it reshapes the way pricing conversations work See how B2B buyers think about results through revenue, cost savings, and risk Recognize the hidden personal outcomes buyers consider—even in business decisions Build the next layer of the Buyer Decision framework introduced in Episodes 1 and 2   Catch Up on the #buyerDecisionSeries: Episode 1: Buying Is a Prediction of the Future https://impactpricing.com/podcast/buying-is-a-prediction-of-the-future/ Episode 2: Buyers Buy Futures, Not Features https://impactpricing.com/podcast/buyers-buy-futures-not-features/   "Value is the result of solving problems." — Mark Stiving   Topics Covered: 00:22 - Recapping the First Two Episodes. Buying is prediction, and confidence determines when someone acts 01:32 - Confidence Threshold in Buying Decisions 02:11 - Introduction to Laws of Value 02:42 - Umbrella Law: Buyers Trade Money for Value 03:14 - Law One: Buyers Make Predictions 04:02 - Law Two: Value is the Result of Solving Problems 05:02 - Confidence Components: Payoff, Probability, Anticipated Regret 06:07 - B2B Results: Incremental Profit + Reduced Risk in B2B 08:22 - Results in B2C: Functional, Social, and Emotional Value. Consumers buy outcomes like better performance, social perception, or emotional satisfaction 10:43 - Why Individual Buyers Still Matter in B2B. Even business decisions include personal outcomes like reputation and career impact 12:50 - What Comes Next: Quantifying Value. How sellers can help buyers understand the payoff they expect   Key Takeaways: "Value is the result of solving problems." — Mark Stiving "Individual buyers inside companies still care about how decisions make them look and feel." — Rebecca Kalogeris   Connect with Rebecca Kalogeris: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rebecca-kalogeris   Connect with Mark Stiving: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stiving/ Email: mark@impactpricing.com  

In this episode of the Market Insights podcast, Fisher Investments' founder, Executive Chairman, and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Ken Fisher, tackles a fresh round of listener questions. Ken shares his thoughts on topics like tariffs' economic impact, the probability of a recession in 2026, being a “perma-bull,” and comparisons between AI stocks and the dot-com bubble.. Get these insights and much more in this episode of the Market Insights podcast. Episode recorded on 01/12/2026. Visit our episode page, where you'll find links to more information and resources to help you become a more informed investor. And if you have questions about capital markets, investing or personal finance, email us at marketinsights@fi.com. We may use them in an upcoming episode.

(0:00) Intro(0:02) Khutba – Ramazan aur Qur'ani Dua(1:25) Ramazan ki Fazilat(1:53) Taqwa – Roza ka Maqsad(2:30) Insani Khwahishat(3:19) Allah ki Pasand aur Napasand(4:53) Dunya aur Khwahishat(5:36) Khwahishat aur Haqiqat(6:37) Allah Walon ki Khoobi(6:57) Hadith(7:19) Shikway aur Mushkilat(7:30) Raza-e-Ilahi(8:48) Job ka Masla(9:35) Istighna(10:45) Khwahishat par Sabr(11:21) Musalman aur Kafir ka Nazriya(12:58) Allah ki Dheel(14:11) Shadi Shuda aur Kunware(14:35) Allah ki Raza ki Qeemat(14:59) Shahadat ki Qeemat(15:30) Border Defenders ki Himayat(16:10) Pakistan Army aur Tanqeed(16:54) Nabi ﷺ ka Farman(17:02) Pakistan ki Hifazat(17:08) Mukhalif Sahafi(17:31) Kamzor Army ka Natija(17:45) US Iran War(18:14) Shaheed ki Misal(18:54) Mantiq aur Probability(22:22) Maut ka Khauf(23:25) TV Anchors ka Latifa(25:56) Shaheed ki Qurbani(26:22) Dunya vs Aakhirat(27:37) Kafir vs Musalman(28:21) Khwahishat ka Control(29:13) Qurbani ka Maqsad(30:11) Insan aur Janwar ka Farq(31:10) Roza ki Hikmat(31:31) Taqat ka Istemal(32:26) Roohani Weight Lifting(33:48) Mushkil Kaam Aasan Karna(34:02) Jogging aur Walking(35:13) Nazar ki Hifazat(35:50) Tharak(36:43) Bhook aur Khana(37:48) Fahash Movies(38:12) Bad-Nazri ka Wabal(38:41) Zyada Khana aur Motapa(39:24) Ghussa Control Karna(40:22) Ghussa Peene ka Ajr(41:17) Susti – Bara Masla(41:35) Wazan Kam Karne ki Naseehat(42:37) Hadith ki Tashreeh(44:00) Susti ki Burai(44:20) Zyada Khane se Mana(45:06) Sust Insan(46:20) Susti ka Ilaj(47:00) Motapa aur Susti(47:44) Rafee Bhai(48:17) Susti se Bachne ki Dua(48:32) Active Muslims(48:40) Lazy Muslims(49:20) Laziness – National Disease(50:14) Ramazan ki Barkat(51:25) Meetha Sharbat(52:48) Zyada Khane ka Nuqsan(53:13) Hadith Tirmizi(54:44) Doodh ki Ghiza(56:40) Naseehat(57:14) Mota Aalim(58:29) Yahudi Aalim ka Motapa(59:01) Mota Daai(59:41) Maulana Zakariya RA(1:01:00) Sahi Baat(1:01:51) Wazan Kam Karne ka Tareeqa(1:03:09) Pur-Asar Bayan ka Raaz(1:03:34) Ramazan aur Weight(1:04:35) Shop ka Tajzia(1:05:50) Fasting Benefits(1:06:46) Behtareen Usool(1:08:30) Sunnat Khana(1:08:50) Taif Case(1:09:59) Ramazan aur Self-Control(1:11:10) Masjid ke Maali Mamlaat(1:18:15) I'tikaf Registration(1:18:45) Aulad mein Waqfa(1:34:25) Ramazan ke Jismani aur Roohani Faiday(1:37:24) Iftar ka Sharbat(1:42:36) Packed Juices(1:43:39) Ramadan Weight Loss(1:45:09) Charbi Wala Gosht(1:46:11) Hara Saib(1:47:54) Eid ke Naye Note aur Sood(1:48:12) Love Marriage aur Walidain(1:51:55) Masjid ke Hisse mein Pig Business(1:53:04) Advance Zakat(1:53:14) Bahir Mulk Kamai(1:54:35) Haram Amdani Wale Baap ki Beti se Nikah(1:55:43) Talaq Yafta Aurat(2:08:52) Sabaq Aamoz Waqiaat Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The headlines for the 8th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 1st March 2026)

Gil Santos is Lead Quant at Credora, and Marcin Kazmierczak is CoFounder of RedStone, which recently acquired Credora.We dig into why DeFi desperately needs credit ratings, how Credora is building them, and why this is the missing piece for institutional capital to flow onchain. Gil explains the problem: DeFi has transparency of transactions but opacity when it comes to risk. You can see every trade onchain, but you can't tell if a Morpho vault is genuinely safer than another. Credora is building the Moody's and S&P for DeFi—real-time, dynamic risk ratings that update as market conditions change.In this episode, we cover:+ Why DeFi needs a ratings protocol ($10B rated, 80% Morpho TVL coverage)+ The L2Beat parallel: Raising standards for the industry+ How Credora ratings work: assessment from collateral → markets → vaults+ 2026 vision: Stablecoins to $1T, fintechs offering rated yields to retail------

Send a textIn this episode, we're talking about probabilistic thinking and why language matters more than most people realize. The central idea is simple: most bad decisions don't come from a lack of information, they come from mislabeling information. When we apply labels too early, we collapse probability, reduce our options, and lock ourselves into conclusions that may not be accurate. We'll break down how this happens, why your baseline matters, and how small changes in language can dramatically improve your decision-making under pressure.Support the showWebsite: https://thehumanbehaviorpodcast.buzzsprout.com/shareFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheHumanBehaviorPodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thehumanbehaviorpodcast/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ArcadiaCognerati More about Greg and Brian: https://arcadiacognerati.com/arcadia-cognerati-leadership-team/

Send a textRecorded live at the California Conference of Arson Investigators (CCAI), this episode features Fire Investigator and researcher Keith Parker for a wide-ranging (and very real) conversation about what it looks like to apply the scientific method in fire investigation—especially when the ignition source is gone and the pressure to “have an answer” is high. We dig into affirmative evidence vs. negative corpus, why timelines can be some of the strongest support for (or against) a hypothesis, and the danger zone of assumptions sneaking into your data when you're convinced you already know what happened. Keith shares how his wildland experience evolved from frustration with wiped-out origins to building better training and getting involved in peer-reviewed wildland fire pattern research, including collaboration and mentorship from Dr. Vito Babrauskas. If you've ever wondered how confident we can be in wildland indicators under extreme conditions (wind, dry fuels, high intensity), or how wildland O&C is still maturing the way structure investigation did pre-NFPA 921, this one's for you. Plus: conference updates, what we're teaching next, how to get involved with IAAI as a student, and the return of “Can you use it in a sentence?” with a practical definition challenge to sharpen your investigator brain.National Wildland Fire Conference — April 24–26, 2026 — Oceanside (North County San Diego), CaliforniaIAAI ITC (International Training Conference) — April 27–May 1, 2026Georgia Fire Investigators Association Spring Conference — March 16–19, 2026 — Marietta (Cobb), GeorgiaAlabama Chapter FREE Spring Training — April 7, 2026 — Decatur, AlabamaMontana IAAI Annual Training Conference — May 12–14, 2026 — Billings, MontanaThank you for listening! If you enjoyed the episode, give us 5 stars, hit the follow button, and subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and anywhere you are listening in from. Follow us on social media!Instagram: @infocusfire_podcastLinkedIn: INFOCUS podcastFacebook: INFOCUS podcastTikTok: @infocus_podcast

Baby Blue Viper explores deterministic enforcement infrastructure across Bitcoin and AI systems.As capital moves without intermediaries and autonomous models scale without friction, governance must move from policy to infrastructure. This show examines transaction integrity, capability containment, sovereign compute, and the primitives required to embed constraint before execution.Episodes alternate between open enforcement briefings and member-only deep-dive transmissions — moving from surface signal to structural design.Enforcement must precede execution.Featured Tools & ResourcesΩmega Pruner — a non-custodial, PSBT-only enforcement layer for structured Bitcoin UTXO management.Live demo → https://omega-pruner.onrender.comCode → https://github.com/babyblueviper1/Viper-Stack-Omega This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.babyblueviper.com/subscribe

Poul Anderson (1926-2001), noted science fiction and fantasy author, winner of seven Hugo Awards and three Nebula Awards, in conversation with the late Lawrence Davidson, recorded for the Probabilities radio program on KPFA on June 10, 1978. The late Poul Anderson, who died on July 31, 2001 at the age of 74, is considered one of the greatest science fiction and fantasy authors of the twentieth century. He even has an asteroid named in his honor. Known for his hard science writing, in particular his Polysotechnic League series as well as his Landry series and his Time Patrol series, he was also a master of fantasy. There were also historical novels and mysteries. His career began in 1947 at the age of 21 with stories in Astounding Science Fiction, and he became a professional writer a year later. One of his novels became a film, the Hugo nominated novel, The High Crusade, in 1994 about an alien spaceship landing in medieval England. It is currently not streaming in the United States though if you search, you can find a DVD copy. As with many of the writers of the pulp and paperback era, Poul Anderson is ripe for rediscovery. After Probabilities got its start in 1977, it was natural that the Orinda-based writer would become a guest on the show, though his libertarian politics put him at odds with much of the KPFA audience. This conversation with co-host Lawrence Davidson, recorded June 10, 1978, was likely Davidson's very first solo interview and came before the show's focus turned to the history of modern science fiction. For some unfathomable reason, Lawrence seemed to keep turning the focus to Anderson's politics, to which the writer finally explained, a little exasperated, that he was basically a story-teller. The interview was digitized, remastered and edited on February 22, 2026, using the Adobe Podcast app to remove noise and echo. .   The post The Probabilities Archive: Science Fiction Grandmaster Poul Anderson (1926-2001), 1978 appeared first on KPFA.

In dieser Folge sprechen Lukas Mundelsee und Dennis-Peter Born (Eidgenössischen Hochschule für Sport Magglingen) über die Balance zwischen Spezialisierung und Vielfältigkeit im Schwimmsport. Ein zentrales Thema ist der Wissenstransfer aus der Wissenschaft in die Praxis zur Optimierung von Trainingsplänen sowohl von anderen Sportarten als auch innerhalb des Schwimmsports.Aus groß angelegten Analysen geht hervor, dass bis zum Erreichen eines Top-Niveaus im Schwimmsport meist 10-12 Trainingsjahre vergehen, was die häufig genannte 10.000 Stunden-Regel zur Entwicklung von Expertise stützt. Da Schwimmen eine Sportart ist, in der Athletinnen und Athleten früh mit hohen Trainingsumfängen trainieren, wird die technische Ausbildung im Kindesalter als besonders bedeutsam hervorgehoben. Gleichzeitig sind die athletischen Anforderungen im Schwimmsport in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen, weshalb ergänzendes Training in anderen Sportarten zur Entwicklung transferierbarer Fähigkeiten und zur Motivationsförderung empfohlen wird, etwa durch leichtathletisches Sprinttraining. Zudem wird diskutiert, ab wann Talentprognosen möglich sind, wie verschiedene Talententwicklungen verlaufen können und warum Talente möglichst lange im Talentpool gehalten werden sollten, um nicht frühzeitig potenzielle Spitzenathleten zu verlieren. Darüber hinaus sprechen Dennis und Lukas über Altersbereiche, ab denen eine zunehmende Spezialisierung auf Schwimmlagen und -strecken angesichts der großen Vielfältigkeit im Schwimmsport sinnvoll erscheint.Besprochene Studien: Thinking outside the box: comparing age at performance milestones of swimmers to cross-country skiers and biathletes: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41651736/Specialize Early and Select Late: Performance Trajectories of World-Class Finalists and International- and National-Class Swimmers: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38061353/Predicting future stars: Probability and performance corridors for elite swimmers: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37968181/Competition age: does it matter for swimmers? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35197115/Quantity of within-sport distance variety - what can pool swimmers and track runners learn from each other? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39698053/Weitere Studien von Dennis findet ihr unter folgendem Link: https://sciprofiles.com/profile/1153076

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 7th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun. 22nd February 2026)

Tim Kingsley, VP Exploration of Coppernico Metals, commented, “We are very pleased with the outcome of the [gravity, magnetic and photogrammetry] surveys. Initial results are being used to provide clearer definition of these significant, multi-kilometre-scale skarn and porphyry targets which remain mostly untested by drilling.” Ivan Bebek, Chair and CEO of Coppernico Metals, commented, “The new gravity and magnetic datasets represent a major advancement in our understanding of the geology between Antapampa and Tipicancha, and have highlighted several large-scale targets that remain untested. With this technical foundation in place, Coppernico is now strongly positioned to launch a comprehensive, multi-target drill program that could deliver several opportunities for a transformational discovery.” Sponsor: https://coppernicometals.com/ TSX:COPR; OTCQB: CPPMF; FSE: 9I3 0:00 Introduction 2:32 Phase 1 Drilling Results & Iterative Approach 4:21 Survey Results & Target Refinement 6:32 Las Bambas Analog & Regional Context 8:10 Scale & Grade Potential 9:44 Phase 2 Drilling Strategy 12:48 Tipicancha Target Discussion 13:50 Antapampa Target 14:53 Timeline, Financing & Permits 17:31 Long-term Strategy & Market Timing 18:52 NYSE Listing Plans? 19:40 Closing Remarks Press release discussed: https://coppernicometals.com/coppernico-completes-gravity-and-magnetic-surveys-and-refines-large-skarn-porphyry-targets/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Sponsor Coppernico Metals pays MSE a United States dollar seven thousand per month coverage fee. Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Human action involves people engaging in unique events in which outcomes often are uncertain, when expertise and planning often do not give us the results we anticipate.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/we-act-world-uncertainty-not-probabilities

Human action involves people engaging in unique events in which outcomes often are uncertain, when expertise and planning often do not give us the results we anticipate.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/we-act-world-uncertainty-not-probabilities

In this podcast episode, Dr. Jonathan H. Westover talks with Paul Falcone about recruiting and interviewing in a tight labor market and how to identify 'high-probability' hires. Paul Falcone is a renowned expert on effective hiring, performance management, and leadership development, specializing in helping companies build higher performing leadership teams. He spent the last three decades in human resources executive roles at organizations including Nickelodeon, Paramount Pictures, NBCUniversal, Time Warner, and City of Hope Cancer Center Hospital. Check out all of the podcasts in the HCI Podcast Network!

Send a textTom Griffiths, Henry R. Luce Professor at Princeton University, joins the show to explore the surprising science behind how we actually think. His new book, The Laws of Thought, bridges computational cognitive science and AI—challenging assumptions about decision-making, neural networks, and the path to artificial general intelligence.Show NotesTimestamps 01:21 – Meet Tom Griffiths 05:27 – Tom's Book 06:58 – A Neural Network 09:55 – AGI? 19:10 – Writing the Book 20:45 – The Laws of Thought 27:24 – The Neural Network Surprise 31:33 – Learning from Experts 35:19 – Decision Making vs. Probability 42:36 – Government AI ConsiderationsLinks LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-griffiths-7b31a0364 Book: The Laws of Thought – Macmillan#TheLawsOfThought, #CognitiveScience, #ArtificialIntelligence, #AGI, #NeuralNetworks, #DecisionMaking, #Probability, #AIResearch, #Princeton, #TechPodcast, #MakingDataSimple, #AIGovernment, #MachineLearningWant to be featured as a guest on Making Data Simple? Reach out to us at almartintalksdata@gmail.com and tell us why you should be next. The Making Data Simple Podcast is hosted by Al Martin, WW VP Technical Sales, IBM, where we explore trending technologies, business innovation, and leadership ... while keeping it simple & fun.

Send a textTom Griffiths, Henry R. Luce Professor at Princeton University, joins the show to explore the surprising science behind how we actually think. His new book, The Laws of Thought, bridges computational cognitive science and AI—challenging assumptions about decision-making, neural networks, and the path to artificial general intelligence.Show NotesTimestamps 01:21 – Meet Tom Griffiths 05:27 – Tom's Book 06:58 – A Neural Network 09:55 – AGI? 19:10 – Writing the Book 20:45 – The Laws of Thought 27:24 – The Neural Network Surprise 31:33 – Learning from Experts 35:19 – Decision Making vs. Probability 42:36 – Government AI ConsiderationsLinks LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-griffiths-7b31a0364 Book: The Laws of Thought – Macmillan#TheLawsOfThought, #CognitiveScience, #ArtificialIntelligence, #AGI, #NeuralNetworks, #DecisionMaking, #Probability, #AIResearch, #Princeton, #TechPodcast, #MakingDataSimple, #AIGovernment, #MachineLearningWant to be featured as a guest on Making Data Simple? Reach out to us at almartintalksdata@gmail.com and tell us why you should be next. The Making Data Simple Podcast is hosted by Al Martin, WW VP Technical Sales, IBM, where we explore trending technologies, business innovation, and leadership ... while keeping it simple & fun.

The market's been up three years in a row… will it go for a fourth? You scroll past a headline about Bitcoin falling 45%, tariffs getting overturned, and tensions rising overseas, and suddenly you're wondering if your portfolio is sitting on a fault line. This episode is for that moment. Nate and Dave walk through the questions investors are asking right now: Can the market really keep going after three strong years?  What does a Supreme Court tariff ruling actually mean for your money?  Why is Bitcoin sliding while stocks hold up? More importantly, how much of this should change what you're doing? Tune in for our perspective, probabilities, and a reminder that despite the ongoing uncertainty you can always have a plan. If you've felt that low-grade tension in the background lately, this conversation may help you regain some clarity.   [Resources Mentioned] Ben Carlson's blog, "A Wealth of Common Sense" https://awealthofcommonsense.com/       Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   0:00 — Welcome Back to our AMA: Ask Monument Anything 1:23 — Iran Tensions And Economic Ripple Effects 7:42 — Can Markets Extend The Winning Streak? 13:10 — Probabilities, Long-Term Returns, And Perspective 19:21 — Supreme Court Tariffs And Who Benefits 26:10 — Volatility As The Price Of Admission 26:37 — Bitcoin Selloff, Leverage Unwind, And What Could Restart Demand Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off the Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com   

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Lady Antonia Fraser, noted writer of English history and biography, discusses her book, “The Six Wives of Henry VIII” with Probabilities hosts Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded November 17,1992 while she was on tour in San Francisco. With the arrest of the former Prince Andrew, we can look back at other scandals in the history of England, such as the story of Henry the Eighth and his six wives, seen through the eyes of the great historian Antonia Fraser. Antonia Fraser, now age 93, is best known for her various biographies and non-fiction works, often focusing on women in history and on various members of the British crown. She is also the author of several mysteries featuring her amateur detective, Jemima Share, published between 1977 and 1995, followed by two omnibus collections. At present, there are 17 works of history, plus three memoirs, one of which, Must You Go: My Life with Harold Pinter, about her life married to the late playwright who died in 2008, was published in 2010. Antonia'Fraser's most recent book, Caroline Lamb: A Free Spirit, was published in 2023. Along with her discussion of English history, she also talks about her work as a mystery writer and her then most recent Jemima Shore novel, The Cavalier Case. The interview ends with a look at her next book, The Gunpowder Plot: Terror and Faith in 1605, which would be published in 1996.. She would return on tour for that book, and the second of two Probabilities/Cover to Cover interviews.   This interview was digitized, remastered and edited by Richard Wolinsky on February 20, 2026. An edited for time version aired in 1992, and the complete version has never seen the light of day until now. The post From the Archive: Antonia Fraser, “The Six Wives of Henry VIII,” 1992 appeared first on KPFA.

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Travis Kitchens was a psychedelic research subject for Johns Hopkins University who eventually uncovered a secret plan to revive religion with drugs. Travis is currently a freelance journalist who writes extensively on the history and philosophy of psychedelic research. He lives in Kentucky. SPONSORS https://rag-bone.com - Use code DANNY & get 20% off sitewide. https://takeultra.com - Use code DANNY for 15% off. https://shopify.com/dannyjones - Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial & start selling today. https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off EPISODE LINKS https://vegetabletelevision.substack.com https://www.psymposia.com/magazine/a-channel-for-magic-ralph-hoods-mysticism-scale-and-the-occult-roots-of-the-johns-hopkins-psychedelic-research-program https://www.csmonitor.com/Technology/2019/0418/Why-Wendell-Berry-is-still-not-going-to-buy-a-computer FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Psymposia is sabotaging MDMA research 05:41 - serpent handling cults 09:41 - FDA reason for rejecting MDMA therapy 16:28 - Psychedelics are being weaponized 21:16 - Andrew Callaghan & Nick Shirley 24:30 - The modern journalism landscape 27:50 - The ChatGPT information model 32:17 - Human lifespans are going DOWN 34:59 - Jordan Peterson & John Vervaeke 38:52 - Epstein's interest in the CIA Stargate program 41:22 - Epstein's interview with Steve Bannon 46:29 - The most likely Epstein theory 49:17 - Art forgery & weaponized art 56:37 - Epstein files are confirming the worst conspiracies 01:01:00 - Jeffrey Epstein's brother is worse than him 01:04:01 - Epstein's art exhibit for Roman Polanski 01:05:28 - Noam Chomsky's Epstein connection 01:12:20 - Dark details of Jolly West 01:15:21 - Charles Manson & MKUltra 01:21:42 - Reagan's war on drugs 01:23:03 - Most likely Manson murder theory 01:28:13 - Candace Owen's new Charlie Kirk theory 01:35:13 - Rise of Nick Feuntes 01:39:07 - Trump's plan to sabotage the mid-terms 01:42:33 - Scientology headquarters 01:49:15 - Why Scientologists don't speak out 01:56:53 - Where L. Ron Hubbard escaped to 01:58:03 - How remote viewing works 02:00:49 - Psychedelics & telepathy 02:03:54 - Coming down from DMT 02:07:02 - The need for psychedelic churches 02:09:40 - New plant stronger than DMT 02:10:31 - Changa plant 02:14:00 - Psychedelic drugs of the future 02:14:36 - Ammon Hillman's debate with Luke Gorton 02:18:28 - The apple of knowledge from Adam & Eve 02:21:16 - Why deadly shark attacks are on the rise 02:31:17 - John Lilly's psychedelic NASA research 02:37:55 - Harmony Korine & IDF fundraising 02:44:09 - Florida's donations to Israel 02:49:23 - Museum of Tarot's conspiracy theories 02:55:17 - Bob Lazar 02:57:40 - Danny's theory on UFOs & aliens 02:58:57 - Alex Jones' predictions 03:04:29 - Probability of life beyond earth 03:07:19 - Is there a "creator"? 03:13:11 - Technology vs. evolution 03:15:07 - Graham Hancock & Flint Dibble 03:17:28 - Ancient Egyptian Vases 03:19:13 - Who the ancient Egyptians were 03:20:26 - Tobacco is worse than LSD 03:25:58 - Paganism in Conan the Barbarian 03:27:45 - Oliver Stone's interview with Putin 03:31:57 - The dark tale of Gary Stewart 03:33:40 - The Immortality Con & the psychedelic renaissance 03:41:25 - Why people must be cautious 03:43:05 - The message of psychedelics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 6th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 15th February 2026)

This is a link post. I would like to thank David Thorstadt for looking over this. If you spot a factual error in this article please message me. The code used to generate the graphs in the article is available to view here. Introduction Say you are an organiser, tasked with achieving the best result on some metric, such as “trash picked up”, “GDP per capita”, or “lives saved by an effective charity”. There are several possible options of interventions you can take to try and achieve this. How do you choose between them? The obvious thing to do is look at each intervention in turn and make your best, unbiased estimate of how each intervention will perform on your metric, and pick the one that performs the best:Image taken from here Having done this ranking, you declare the top ranking program to be the best intervention and invest in it, expecting that that your top estimate will be the result that you get. This whole procedure is totally normal, and people all around the world, including people in the effective altruist community, do it all the time. In actuality, this procedure is not correct. The optimisers curse is [...] ---Outline:(00:26) Introduction(02:17) The optimisers curse explained simply(04:42) Introducing a toy model(08:45) Introducing speculative interventions(12:15) A simple bayesian correction(18:47) Obstacles to simple optimizer curse solutions.(22:08) How Givewell has reacted to the optimiser curse(25:18) Conclusion --- First published: February 11th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/q2TfTirvspCTH2vbZ/the-best-cause-will-disappoint-you-an-intro-to-the Linkpost URL:https://open.substack.com/pub/titotal/p/the-best-cause-will-disappoint-you?r=1e0is3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Prepping doesn't start with gear, it starts with a clear head and a realistic plan for the emergencies you're most likely to face. In this episode, we walk through building a practical prepper mindset, doing a simple risk assessment for your region and household, and choosing your top priorities so you can prepare without getting overwhelmed. Download The Episode HereIf you find value in what we do, if you've learned something new, gotten an idea for something you need to do, been entertained, or just like out Southern charm, would you be willing to give back a little?You can do that one of several ways.     Go to our support page               OR     By starting your Amazon shopping from our website? --->  CLICK HERE        (We earn from qualifying Amazon purchases)Contact us:Practical PreppingWebsiteOur Sponsors:Practical Prepping BooksProof Minimalist Wallets (Discount code PREPPER)ProLine Digital Group   Website  Email1791gunleather.com (Discount code: PREP15) SurfsharkPodcast music written and recorded by Krista LawleyWebsite design and hosting by ProLine Digital Group.Podcasts Copyright 2026, P3 Media Group, LLC, and Practical Prepping Podcast

February 16, 2025 - Season 16, Episode 94 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the plethora of roster cuts the Miami Dolphins appear set to make ahead of the start of the 2026 NFL year in March. We do wonder, however, if a few of the Miami reported forthcoming cuts might ultimately be designated for post June 1. Headlining these upcoming cuts the Dolphins will reportedly make are WR Tyreek, Hill, G James Daniels, EDGE Bradley Chubb, and WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Throughout this Monday show, Alex and I address the probability and plausibility that the Pittsburgh Steelers will ultimately select at least one quarterback during the 2026 NFL Draft. We talk about what spending a 2026 draft pick on a quarterback might mean when it comes to veteran backup QB Mason Rudolph and especially if veteran QB Aaron Rodgers is ultimately re-signed. With the Steelers now installing Mike McCarthy as the team's new head coach, Alex and I revisit the team's extensive list of players that are scheduled to become free agents in March. We roll back through that lengthy list of players one-by-one and go over the likelihood of each ultimately being re-signed. As part of our 2026 free agent list rundown during this episode, Alex and I spend extra time discussing the potential futures in Pittsburgh of CB James Pierre, RB Kenneth Gainwell, CB Asante Samuel Jr., and G Isaac Seumalo. There were a few other minor news tidbits concerning the Steelers that surfaced over the weekend, so Alex and I make sure to go over all of those items that are worth mentioning. This 91-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the above recap and we end thus show by answering several emails we received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tim Maudlin is Professor of Philosophy at NYU and Founder and Director of the John Bell Institute for the Foundations of Physics. Jacob Barandes is Senior Preceptor in Physics at Harvard University, where he works widely across the philosophy of physics, with focuses on the foundations of quantum mechanics, the philosophy of spacetime, and the metaphysics of laws. In this episode, Robinson, Tim, and Jacob discuss Jacob's novel approach to quantum mechanics, which he calls the “Indivisible Approach”. More particularly, they discuss the problems at the core of quantum mechanics, the ontology of the theory, causality and quantum phenomena, probability, and more. If you're interested in the foundations of physics, then please check out the JBI, which is devoted to providing a home for research and education in this important area. Any donations are immensely helpful at this early stage in the institute's life.Tim's Website: www.tim-maudlin.siteThe John Bell Institute: https://www.johnbellinstitute.orgJacob's Website: https://www.jacobbarandes.comThe Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence: https://philosophyofphysics.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/pop.186Historical Debates over the Physical Reality of the Wave Function: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09397Pilot-Wave Theories as Hidden Markov Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10569OUTLINE00:21 The Problems at the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics13:00 More on the Problems26:09 Is the Wave Function a Real Thing?32:48 Causation, Correlation, and Quantum Mechanics42:03 Terminological Issues44:34 Causal Models and the Markov Condition01:00:57 Can Time Exist Without Change?01:15:00 On Time and Change01:30:38 Newtonian Mechanics and the Markov Condition1:45:00 More on Newtonian Mechanics2:00:00 More on the Markov Condition02:17:49 Tim's Response02:28:18 Philosophy and Physics02:32:38 More on Probability02:42:13 Probability and the Double Slit Experiment 02:59:42 Why Tim Remains PuzzledRobinson's Website: http://robinsonerhardt.comRobinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

The Seattle Seahawks just won the Super Bowl, so in honor of their victory, this week I'm taking a look at Bigfoot sightings near Seattle! Located in King County, Washington, Seattle is the most populous city in the state, and the entire northwest region of the country. But not far outside the city limits, witnesses describe running into a large, hairy, humanoid figure. Sightings this week include Bigfoot road crossings, a lover's lane encounter with Sasquatch, a Bigfoot crossing through a man's backyard, hikers running into a Bigfoot stopping for a drink, and electrical workers spotting a pacing Bigfoot. Does Bigfoot lurk just outside the Emerald City?Chapters:2:33 - Seattle and the Jet City Sasquatch?3:27 - Late-night Bigfoot sighting near Duvall9:29 - Hikers near Mud Mountain Dam in Enumclaw see a Sasquatch drinking water 14:19 - A couple watching the stars at Rattlesnake Lake have a Bigfoot encounter20:44 - Electrical line workers hear howls and see Bigfoot corssing the road and pacing26:44 - Two boys returning from a fishing trip near Snoqualmie see Bigfoot walking away from their truck36:08 - Final Thoughts: Possibility vs. Probability#bigfoot #seattle #washington #kingcountyLinks!Follow us on Social media!Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oddanduntold/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/oddanduntoldWebsite: https://www.oddanduntold.comEmail me! : jason@oddanduntold.comBigfoot Sightings Near Atlanta: https://youtu.be/jGbW05FiLaY?si=TavEhmqGe09BwY4GBigfoot Sightings in Missouri | Taney County: https://youtu.be/6zsGShA2Y7A?si=2GMxA9wO7Cmt5mZpBigfoot Sightings in Massachusetts | Worcester County: https://youtu.be/N5vueu8vNdM?si=TiB1MSE8kAN68CEpBigfoot Sightings Around Christmas | Florida, Michigan, and British Columbia: https://youtu.be/SuRKpRJjkHY?si=PARNYsZ594JaqoCTBFRO Sightings in King County, WA: https://www.bfro.net/GDB/show_county_reports.asp?state=WA&county=KingCheck out Riversend, the band behind "Moonlight," our awesome theme music!Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/1yIwfeu2cH1kDZaMYxKOUe?si=NIUijnmsQe6LNWOsfZ2jPwRiversend Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RiversendbandRiversend Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/riversendband/

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 5th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 8th February 2026)

This week, David and Nicole talked about the coaching changes for the Steelers and Eagles and Philly's Unrivaled team. Also-- no Super Bowl predictions.

What does it take to beat the odds in an AI-driven world? On this episode of DisrupTV, Kyle Young (Success Is a Numbers Game) and Jon Reed (diginomica) join Vala Afshar and Ray Wang to explore probability hacking, enterprise AI leadership, and why kindness still matters. From de-risking big goals to navigating the paradox of AI in the enterprise, this conversation offers practical insights for leaders facing uncertainty—and opportunity.

UK Property Market Update The headlines for the 4th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 1st February 2026)

In this landmark Mind-Body Solution Colloquia, cognitive scientist Donald Hoffman and neuroscientist Karl Friston engage in a deep, rigorous dialogue on the foundations of reality, perception, and consciousness.Hoffman argues that spacetime and physical objects are not fundamental, but evolved interfaces shaped by fitness rather than truth. Friston presents the Free Energy Principle and Active Inference as a unifying framework for life, mind, and meaning — raising the question of whether inference itself can ground reality.Together, they explore:- Why spacetime may be derived, not fundamental- Whether consciousness must come before physics- Markov blankets, trace logic, and system boundaries- Probability, inference, and non-equilibrium dynamics- The limits of scientific explanation- Implications for AI, evolution, and ontologyThis is not a debate — it is a serious attempt to understand reality at its deepest level.TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) - What is Ultimately Real? Consciousness vs Physicalism Debate(00:51) - Why Consciousness is Fundamental Beyond Spacetime(03:06) - High Energy Physics: Spacetime is Doomed Explained(05:06 - Challenges of Physicalist Theories in Explaining Consciousness(07:11 - Ontological Views: Free Energy Principle Integration(08:20) - Background-Free Explanations of Lived Experience(10:06) - Parsimony and Data Compression in Scientific Models(12:21) - Discoveries in Simpler Scattering Amplitude Solutions(14:09) - Free Energy Principle Guiding Beyond Spacetime Physics(16:06) - Why Physicalism Fails to Boot Up Consciousness(19:05) - Probability Theory's Role in Consciousness Frameworks(26:05) - Trace Logic Applied to Markov Chains Dynamics(34:51) - Markov Blankets and Insulation from the Past(39:07) - Minimizing Surprise in Non-Equilibrium Processes(53:32) - Spacetime as a Derived Projection from Fundamentals(1:04:15) - Constructing Simpler Explanations of Reality(1:20:50) - State Spaces and Dimensionality in Consciousness(1:41:30) - Non-Unique Bounds in AI Design Using Trace Logic(2:02:00) - From Classical Probability to Quantum Mechanics Transition(2:10:26) - Inferring Hidden Realities Through Relationships(2:18:54) - Time as a Computational Resource in Inference(2:24:09) - Scope and Limits of Scientific Explanations(2:32:32) - Agreements on Constructed Realities and Perceptions(2:40:01) - Closing Thoughts: Joint ManifestoEPISODE LINKS:- Karl's Round 1: https://youtu.be/Kb5X8xOWgpc- Karl's Round 2: https://youtu.be/mqzyKs2Qvug- Karl's Round 3 (Ft Mark Solms): https://youtu.be/Jtp426wQ-JI- Karl's Lecture 1: https://youtu.be/Gp9Sqvx4H7w- Karl's Lecture 2: https://youtu.be/Sfjw41TBnRM- Karl's Lecture 3: https://youtu.be/dM3YINvDZsY- Don's Round 1: https://youtu.be/M5Hz1giUUT8- Don's Round 2: https://youtu.be/Toq9YLl49KM- Don's Round 3: https://youtu.be/QRa8r5xOaAA- Don's Round 4: https://youtu.be/Hf1q-bZMEo4- Don's Lecture 1: https://youtu.be/r_UFm8GbSvU- Don's Lecture 2: https://youtu.be/YBmzqNIlbcICONNECT:- Website: https://mindbodysolution.org - YouTube: https://youtube.com/@MindBodySolution- Podcast: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/mindbodysolution- Twitter: https://twitter.com/drtevinnaidu- Facebook: https://facebook.com/drtevinnaidu - Instagram: https://instagram.com/drtevinnaidu- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/drtevinnaidu- Website: https://tevinnaidu.com=============================Disclaimer: The information provided on this channel is for educational purposes only. The content is shared in the spirit of open discourse and does not constitute, nor does it substitute, professional or medical advice. We do not accept any liability for any loss or damage incurred from you acting or not acting as a result of listening/watching any of our contents. You acknowledge that you use the information provided at your own risk. Listeners/viewers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with their own experts in the respective fields.

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Large-scale optimization and machine learning shape modern data science, and Courtney Paquette, Ph.D., McGill University, studies how to design and analyze algorithms for large-scale optimization problems motivated by applications and data science. Paquette draws on probability, complexity theory, and convex and non-smooth optimization, and examines scaling limits of stochastic algorithms. Speaking with Saura Naderi, UC San Diego, Paquette describes an unconventional path from finance to pure mathematics and explains how persistence and comfort with uncertainty support long-term research. She highlights the challenge of building missing foundations while advancing through graduate training, and she connects that experience to the realities of doing original work. Paquette also reflects on rapid progress in machine learning and frames AI systems as tools that can be used thoughtfully. Series: "Science Like Me" [Science] [Show ID: 41119]

Kyle Austin Young was the guest on this episode of Success Profiles Radio. He is an award-winning strategy consultant for high achievers, entrepreneurs, and leader in a wide range of fields. He has refined a powerful system for accomplishing big, meaningful goals that focus on understanding and changing your odds of success. He is the author of the book Success Is A Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals By Changing The Odds. The premise of the book is that you can hack your chances of succeeding at virtually any goal by being someone who SHOULD win instead of someone who CAN win. We talked about how being more prolific dramatically increases your odds of success, why embracing failure should be part of your business model, why the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team's gold medal perhaps wasn't the miracle everyone thought it was, and what to do when we perceive that more talented people stand in the way of us achieving our goals. In addition, we talked about ways we can increase the probability of succeeding at our goals, how to know when quitting is a viable option, and much more. You can listen and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts/iTunes, Spotify, Audible, Amazon, iHeart Radio, and at Success Profiles Radio | Live Internet Talk Radio | Best Shows Podcasts

Susan is 65, recently widowed, and has saved $2.1 million for retirement.On paper, she's more than fine… but emotionally, she doesn't feel fine.After watching her husband pass away, Susan is ready to retire five years earlier than planned so she can enjoy her “go-go years” while she still has her health.But she's terrified of one thing:

In this intellectually rich and surprisingly practical conversation, Bart sits down with Dr. Mike Orkin, distinguished statistician, professor, consultant, and author of The Story of Chance: Beyond the Margin of Error. Dr. Orkin explains how probability, randomness, and risk quietly shape our everyday decisions — from business and investing to gambling, medicine, and life itself. Through accessible examples involving dice, casinos, startups, lotteries, and leadership, he breaks down why luck feels powerful in the short term but fades in the long run, how skill changes outcomes, and why most people misunderstand chance entirely. This episode bridges mathematics, business strategy, and human behavior in a way that's eye‑opening, grounding, and deeply useful.Major Takeaways / LearningsLuck dominates the short run — skill dominates the long run. Repeated decisions reveal predictable outcomes over time.The Law of Averages explains why randomness eventually stabilizes. Outcomes converge toward probability with repetition.Expected value (EV) matters more than single outcomes. Winning once means nothing if the long‑term math is negative.Positive EV isn't enough — risk management matters. Over‑betting can destroy even the best strategies.The Kelly System teaches sustainable growth. Betting or investing a fixed fraction prevents catastrophic losses.Most people confuse correlation with causation. We're wired to see patterns that don't actually exist.Luck is a group phenomenon. In lotteries and mass events, someone wins — but your odds don't improve.Better decisions come from understanding uncertainty. Awareness of chance leads to smarter, calmer leadership.Memorable Quotes“Luck disappears in the long run.”“The important probability isn't that you win — it's that someone wins.”“Expected value tells you what happens over time, not today.”“Positive odds don't protect you if you bet everything.”“Most people don't understand the basic laws of chance.”“Good strategy beats good intentions when uncertainty is involved.”Why It Matters / How to Use ItThis episode helps listeners make better decisions in an unpredictable world. Whether you're starting a business, investing, leading a team, or navigating life's uncertainty, Dr. Mike Orkin's insights reveal how understanding probability reduces fear, improves judgment, and prevents costly mistakes. The conversation reframes luck not as magic or destiny, but as math — and shows how patience, discipline, and sound strategy create sustainable success. If you want to think more clearly, take smarter risks, and stop being fooled by randomness, this episode delivers timeless wisdom you can apply immediately.

In this episode of Trending in Education, Mike Palmer welcomes Andrew Sliwinski, Global Head of Product Experience for LEGO Education, on the day of a major product launch. Together, they explore the intersection of physical play and artificial intelligence, revealing how LEGO is redefining AI literacy for the next generation. Andrew shares his winding career path from tutoring in Detroit to directing Scratch at MIT and serving on the board of the Raspberry Pi Foundation. The conversation dives into LEGO Education's new Computer Science and AI curriculum, a hands-on, privacy-first platform designed for students from kindergarten through eighth grade.

United States v. Ferguson, No. 24-2178 (8th Cir. Jan. 6, 2026)cocaine isomers; divisibility; modified categorical approach; realistic probability test; Arkansas; Ark. Code Ann. § 5-64-401(a)(1)(A)(i)Fofana v. Noem, et al., No. 24-2485 (8th Cir. Jan. 9, 2026)jurisdiction; Patel; INA § 242(a)(2)(B)(ii); asylee adjustment; “any decision” Aguilar-Hernandez v. Bondi, No. 24-2427 (8th Cir. Jan. 6, 2026)domestic violence-type asylum; one central reason; women; acquiescence; Guatemala Gutierrez-Mikan, et al v. U.S. Att'y Gen., No. 24-13788 (11th Cir. Jan. 5, 2026)ineffective assistance of counsel; Loper Bright & Lozada; substantial compliance; CAT; acquiescence; FARC; Colombia Savane v. DHS, et al., No. 24-3286 (3d Cir. Jan. 7, 2026)material misrepresentation; naturalization; willful; diversity visa lottery; DS-230 omissions; omitting children from application; public charge; 8 C.F.R. § 103.2(a)(2); lawfully admitted for permanent residence  Matter of E-M-F-S-, 29 I&N Dec. 379 (BIA 2026)death threats; past persecution; journalists; Peru Liz's email: emontano@kktplaw.comKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years. Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Special Link! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Click me!Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATION:Email: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerSupport the show

A curious Twitter exchange with David Deutsch prompts Bruce to explore what Deutsch and other critical rationalists mean when they assert that randomness doesn't truly exist.⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠

Get My NEW Book: Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FN8DH6SX Andrew Jaffe Book: The Random Universe: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Universe-Models-Probability-Cosmos/dp/0300250509 Is the universe intrinsically random? In this conversation, we dive deep into why the universe may be fundamentally, intrinsically random. Whether inflation on life support, the truth behind the Hubble tension, and whether cosmology is approaching the event horizon, limits beyond which humans can never know. Today we're joined by one of the architects of modern cosmological inference, Professor Andrew Jaffee, author of a new book called The Random Universe that argues that every observation in science is shaped by the models we bring to it, biases and all. KEY TAKEAWAYS 00:00–01:13 — Science and life rely on building models. 01:13–03:35 — Models of people and reality are often wrong and revised. 04:04–06:01 — Observation depends on prior theories. 06:01–07:32 — Models can't be escaped, only improved. 07:32–08:57 — No single scientific method exists. 08:57–11:25 — Science uses induction, not pure proof. 11:25–13:22 — Induction isn't certain, only probabilistic. 13:22–15:36 — Induction works because nature is regular. 17:44–19:08 — Big Bang emerges from well-tested models. 19:08–21:15 — Current cosmology is stressed, not broken. 29:19–30:36 — Probability gives meaning to models. 39:45–41:11 — Randomness often reflects limited knowledge. 43:46–45:00 — Quantum physics is fundamentally probabilistic. 49:09–50:04 — Inflation awaits decisive observational tests. - Additional resources: Get My NEW Book: Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FN8DH6SX?ref_=pe_93986420_775043100 Please join my mailing list here

Capturing Maduro and Buying Greenland – all in a day's work! Markets off to a great start – plenty of January to go… Venezuela oil – untapped opportunity – BUT let's take a closer look. And our Guest – Todd Tresidder – Founder of FinancialMentor.com NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Todd Tresidder graduated from the University of California at Davis with a B.A. in economics and a passion for creating successful businesses. A serial entrepreneur since childhood, Todd went on to build his own wealth as a hedge fund investment manager before “retiring” at 35 to teach others. Today, he provides advanced investment and retirement planning education at FinancialMentor.Com showing you what works, what doesn't, and why based on a depth of proven experience. Todd is a financial coach and educator at FinancialMentor.com. He’s the author of five financial planning books including ‘How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?,’ ‘Don’t Hire A Financial Coach,’ and ‘Variable Annuity Pros and Cons.’ You can connect with Todd via his website, Financialmentor.com, Twitter @FinancialMentor, or on Google+. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SHLD), (RTX), (SPY), (GLD), (XLE)

What if success isn't personal at all — but mathematical?Kyle Austin Young reveals why so many intelligent, capable people fail to reach their goals — even when they do everything “right.” Drawing from his own experience of repeated layoffs, personal burnout, and rebuilding his life through consulting, Kyle introduces a powerful framework for rethinking success through probability rather than motivation.Kyle explains how overwhelm, survival mode, and mental clutter don't just affect our wellbeing — they distort our ability to make good decisions. Together, Marc and Kyle explore how success diagrams, probability hacking, and intentional reflection can radically improve the odds of achieving meaningful goals — personally and professionally.This is a conversation about slowing down, reclaiming agency, and learning how to design success instead of hoping for it.Show Partners:A special thanks to our mental fitness + sweat partner Sip SaunasPersonal Socrates: Better Question, Better LifeGet in Touch:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/behindthehumanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-champagne-

In this episode, we discuss public distrust of politicians and the realities behind presidential approval polling before turning to the math of lotteries and why people continue to play despite the odds. We examine Maryland's proposed reparations commission, including questions of eligibility, funding, legal responsibility, and the practical challenges of tying modern policy to historical injustice. We're joined by Phil Magness to explore the economic history of slavery, the claim that capitalism was built on slave labor, and why slavery is fundamentally incompatible with free markets. We cover Adam Smith's opposition to slavery, misconceptions about profit incentives, the global history of forced labor, and the moral and economic failures surrounding emancipation, closing with a broader discussion of capitalism, socialism, and historical accountability. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:44 Presidential Approval Ratings and Polling Reality 02:38 Why Americans Have Always Hated Politicians 03:35 Powerball, Probability, and the Math of Dreaming 06:51 Maryland's Reparations Commission Explained 08:12 Who Pays and Who Gets Reparations? 10:03 Mitigation, Law, and the Reparations Problem 14:24 Introducing Phil Magness 15:02 Was Capitalism Built on Slavery? 17:59 Slavery as an Ancient Institution 19:50 Adam Smith's Case Against Slavery 23:05 Why Slavery Is Anti-Capitalist 24:50 Pro-Slavery Economics and Feudalism 26:16 Founding Fathers, Hypocrisy, and Moral Failure 30:21 Slavery's Global History and Misconceptions 32:06 Incentives, Profit, and Economic Naivety 34:53 Would Slavery Have Ended Without the Civil War? 37:59 Gradual Emancipation and Historical Alternatives 40:47 Socialism, Capitalism, and the Plantation Model 44:01 Final Reflections and Closing Thoughts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?My guest today says those odds aren't just graspable — they're hackable.Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game. He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.Resources Related to the PodcastAoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better DecisionsAoM Podcast #840: When to QuitAoM Podcast #490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky?Connect With Kyle Austin YoungKyle's websiteKyle on LinkedInSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.See full show notes here

AI pioneer YOSHUA BENGIO, Godfather of AI, reveals the DANGERS of Agentic AI, killer robots, and cyber crime, and how we MUST build AI that won't harm people…before it's too late.  Professor Yoshua Bengio is a Computer Science Professor at the Université de Montréal and one of the 3 original Godfathers of AI. He is the most-cited scientist in the world on Google Scholar, a Turing Award winner, and the founder of LawZero, a non-profit organisation focused on building safe and human-aligned AI systems.  He explains: ◼️Why agentic AI could develop goals we can't control ◼️How killer robots and autonomous weapons become inevitable ◼️The hidden cyber crime and deepfake threat already unfolding ◼️Why AI regulation is weaker than food safety laws ◼️How losing control of AI could threaten human survival [00:00] Why Have You Decided to Step Into the Public Eye?   [02:53] Did You Bring Dangerous Technology Into the World?   [05:23] Probabilities of Risk   [08:18] Are We Underestimating the Potential of AI?   [10:29] How Can the Average Person Understand What You're Talking About?   [13:40] Will These Systems Get Safer as They Become More Advanced?   [20:33] Why Are Tech CEOs Building Dangerous AI?   [22:47] AI Companies Are Getting Out of Control   [24:06] Attempts to Pause Advancements in AI   [27:17] Power Now Sits With AI CEOs   [35:10] Jobs Are Already Being Replaced at an Alarming Rate   [37:27] National Security Risks of AI   [43:04] Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)   [44:44] Ads   [48:34] The Risk You're Most Concerned About   [49:40] Would You Stop AI Advancements if You Could?   [54:46] Are You Hopeful?   [55:45] How Do We Bridge the Gap to the Everyday Person?   [56:55] Love for My Children Is Why I'm Raising the Alarm   [01:00:43] AI Therapy   [01:02:43] What Would You Say to the Top AI CEOs?   [01:07:31] What Do You Think About Sam Altman?   [01:09:37] Can Insurance Companies Save Us From AI?   [01:12:38] Ads   [01:16:19] What Can the Everyday Person Do About This?   [01:18:24] What Citizens Should Do to Prevent an AI Disaster   [01:20:56] Closing Statement   [01:22:51] I Have No Incentives   [01:24:32] Do You Have Any Regrets?   [01:27:32] Have You Received Pushback for Speaking Out Against AI?   [01:28:02] What Should People Do in the Future for Work?   Follow Yoshua: LawZero - https://bit.ly/44n1sDG  Mila - https://bit.ly/4q6SJ0R  Website - https://bit.ly/4q4RqiL  You can purchase Yoshua's book, ‘Deep Learning (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series)', here: https://amzn.to/48QTrZ8  The Diary Of A CEO: ◼️Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/  ◼️Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook  ◼️The 1% Diary is back - limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt  ◼️The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition) - https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb  ◼️Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt  ◼️Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb  Sponsors:  Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/DOAC  Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Rubrik - To learn more, head to https://rubrik.com