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In this week's episode of then & now, we explore the 2024 presidential election and try to understand the enduring impact of a political realignment that began with Donald Trump's rise in 2016. Joining us is Professor Lynn Vavreck, a UCLA professor and leading expert on U.S. elections. Professor Vavreck explores how Trump's victories in 2016 and 2024 reflect a seismic shift in American politics from debates over government size to deeply polarizing cultural and identity issues. This realignment, she argues, has reshaped the electorate, with Trump solidifying a coalition built on economic grievances and cultural anxiety. Vavreck connects the economic frustrations that drove the 2024 election to broader historical trends, tracing parallels between the Reagan-era focus on deregulation and morality and today's identity-inflected politics. She explains that Trump's success stemmed from his willingness to vocalize attitudes on identity and economic issues that other politicians avoided, making him appear more relatable and aligned with voters' concerns. Meanwhile, Democrats struggled to counter this with a cohesive message, as the immediacy of economic frustrations and inflation overshadowed their achievements under the Biden-Harris administration. Looking ahead, Vavreck discusses the potential impact of Trump's second term on government policy and structure, as well as the opportunities and challenges Democrats face in crafting a compelling vision for 2028. Lynn Vavreck is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, renowned for her expertise in voter behavior, campaign strategy, and the intersection of economics and elections. She is the co-author of acclaimed books such as The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election and Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, which explore the critical factors shaping recent presidential races. Vavreck's research has been pivotal in understanding how political messaging and economic conditions influence voter decision-making and electoral outcomes.
Waste No Day: A Plumbing, HVAC, and Electrical Motivational Podcast
Mike Vavreck is the VP of operations for a 40 million dollar HVACPlumbingElectrical team in Lancaster, Pa. Today he's in your passenger seat to talk about how he had five CSRs sell over 100 plans the previous month, including one who sold 230!
This week, I'm happy to reshare my conversation with political scientist, Alex Coppock. This episode first ran on October 12, 2020, and just a few months ago, Alex published his book, "Persuasion in Parallel: How Information Changes Minds about Politics." The book nicely aligns with our conversation on the podcast, so it seemed like a good reason to reshare the original episode. Enjoy! See you in a couple weeks with a brand new episode. Original Episode: #22 - Political Persuasion with Alex Coppock---Alex Coppock is an assistant professor of Political Science at Yale University. His research considers what affects people's political beliefs, especially the kinds of messages people regularly encounter--TV ads, lawn signs, Op-Eds, etc. In this episode, he shares the findings of a big, new study that just came out as well as what it means for how persuasion works. Things that came up in this episode:A new study testing dozens the efficacy of dozens of political ads (Coppock, Hill, & Vavreck, 2020)The long-lasting effects of newspaper op-eds on public opinion (Coppock, Ekins, & Kirby, 2018)The effects of lawn signs on vote outcomes (Green, Krasno, Coppock, Farrer, Lenoir, & Zingher, 2016)Framing effects in persuasion (for an overview, see Chong & Druckman, 2007)The sleeper effect (see here for an overview)For a transcript of this episode, visit this episode's page at: http://opinionsciencepodcast.com/episodes/Learn more about Opinion Science at http://opinionsciencepodcast.com/ and follow @OpinionSciPod on Twitter.
Did the 2022 U.S. midterm elections demonstrate that we have moved beyond risks to American democracy? What explains continued, persistent divisions across the American public along party lines? Does there remain a potential for violence associated with future U.S. elections? On Season 4, Episode 4 of the ELB Podcast, we speak with Lynn Vavreck and Chris Tausanovitch of UCLA's political science department.
Hosted by Andrew Keen, Keen On features conversations with some of the world's leading thinkers and writers about the economic, political, and technological issues being discussed in the news, right now. In this episode, Andrew is joined by John Sides, author of Campaigns and Elections: 2022 Election Update. John Sides (Vanderbilt University) studies elections, political campaigns, voter behavior, and public opinion. His work has appeared in numerous major journals. He is coauthor of The Gamble (with Lynn Vavreck) and Identity Crisis (with Vavreck and Michael Tesler) and is a founder of and contributor to The Monkey Cage, a popular Washington Post political science blog. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
UCLA political scientists Lynn Vavreck and Chris Tausanovitch and Vanderbilt's John Sides argue that political party identity has become increasingly “calcified” in surprising new ways. Their latest book,“The Bitter End,” describes both the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped the 2020 presidential election and continue reverberating today. What's driving the increasing distance between the parties and the growing homogeneity within the parties? Playbook Co-Author Ryan Lizza met Vavreck on UCLA's campus to learn why so-called “identity-inflected issues” are the great new dimension of political conflict and present a dangerous direction in America.
Waste No Day: A Plumbing, HVAC, and Electrical Motivational Podcast
In today's show, we interview special guest Mike Vavreck. Not a typical trades-person by definition, Mike pursued law and healthcare before finally landing in the home services industry. This diverse background aided greatly in his ability to learn and understand the value of communication. Translating this skill now in overseeing a home services call center, Mike's influence doesn't stop on the phone. His ability to speak into speech goes beyond the typical advice and is directly applicable to the field.
Alex Coppock is an assistant professor of Political Science at Yale University. His research considers what affects people's political beliefs, especially the kinds of messages people regularly encounter--TV ads, lawn signs, Op-Eds, etc. In this episode, he shares the findings of a big, new study that just came out as well as what it means for how persuasion works. Things that came up in this episode:A new study testing dozens the efficacy of dozens of political ads (Coppock, Hill, & Vavreck, 2020)The long-lasting effects of newspaper op-eds on public opinion (Coppock, Ekins, & Kirby, 2018)The effects of lawn signs on vote outcomes (Green, Krasno, Coppock, Farrer, Lenoir, & Zingher, 2016)Framing effects in persuasion (for an overview, see Chong & Druckman, 2007)The sleeper effect (see here for an overview)For a transcript of this episode, visit: http://opinionsciencepodcast.com/episode/political-persuasion-with-alex-coppock/Learn more about Opinion Science at http://opinionsciencepodcast.com/ and follow @OpinionSciPod on Twitter.
Do primaries attract more extremist voters who skew elections toward candidates like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump? The common thought has always been that extremist voters, because of their intense passion on issues, are more likely to vote in primaries. But one scholar at UCLA says the real story is far more complicated. On this episode, we speak with esteemed political scientist Lynn Vavreck about her paper on representation in primary elections, and what her research can tell us about the current democratic primary. Paper: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/on-the-representativeness-of-primary-electorates/06414B6E17368D52B3F77EC9C3BF1520
Prof. Yoel Inbar joins us to discuss why Social and Personality Psychology is dominated by political liberals, how one-in-three academic psychologists admit that they would willingly discriminate against their conservative colleagues, how ideological homogeneity affects psychological research, the benefits of encouraging more diversity of thought, and how to make the field of psychology more welcoming to political conservatives. Check out Yoel's podcast: https://fourbeers.fireside.fm/ *** SUPPORT US ON PATREON *** http://patreon.com/mowe *** SHOW NOTES *** https://mowe.uk/2TGqgQ8 *** BOOKS MENTIONED *** "Identity Crisis" by Sides, Tesler & Vavreck https://amzn.to/2RuiI5R "Pale Fire" by Vladimir Nabokov https://amzn.to/2SHSnOK "Basic Economics" by Thomas Sowell https://amzn.to/2RCOQUG *** SOCIAL MEDIA *** Facebook: http://facebook.com/mowepod Twitter: http://twitter.com/mowepod *** CREDITS *** Theme Music: Falling Down by Ryan Little http://youtube.com/user/TheR4C2010 Podcast Image: Wikimedia https://bit.ly/2H7eugs DISCLAIMER: My Own Worst Enemy is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.co.uk and affiliated sites.
Trying something new for the final episode of 2018! Vanderbilt University Professor Larry Bartels discusses his book, Democracy for Realists, with guest host and Governing Magazine writer John Buntin. Bartels also discusses what identity politics means and why politics today is more partisan than ever. (Scroll down for list of books mentioned) Topics by minute: 2:30 - "The Folk Theory of Democracy" 3:30 - How well informed are voters? 5:18 - Impact of the economy on voting behavior 7:40 - Thermostatic nature of American politics 11:13 - Voters blaming Presidents for natural disasters 14:20 - Are elections a game of musical chairs? 15:40 - Swing voters 17:05 - Partisanship as identity 18:30 - Religion and reinforcing identities 23:20 - Polarization 26:35 - Race and "collapse of liberalism" 29:21 - Shift beginning in 1964 31:15 - Racial backlash or "white southern identity?" 34:48 - Race and party affiliation post Obama 40:42 - Trump and the racialized lens 43:09 - What was most striking about Trump's campaign? 47:23 - How well do elections hold politicians accountable? 50:00 - Political engagement and groups contending for power 51:51 - Local elections and national partisanship 54:38 - Book recommendation Books Mentioned: -- "Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity" by Lilliana Mason -- "Ideology in America" by Christopher Ellis and James Stimson -- "Identity Crisis: the 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America" by Sides, Vavreck and Tesler -- "The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker" by Kathy Cramer -- "Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government" by Larry Bartels Nashville Sounding Board is a podcast dedicated to discussing social and political issues affecting Middle Tennessee. www.nashvillesoundingboard.com www.facebook.com/NashvilleSoundingBoard www.twitter.com/NashSoundBoard NSB is produced by Benjamin Eagles. Views expressed by Benjamin Eagles in this podcast and on social media are his alone and do not reflect the views of the Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County. Interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Music by Craig Turner and Joe Halberstadt
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters' choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters’ choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters’ choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters’ choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters’ choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), co-authors John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck explore the underlying question of American identity as a key component within the political landscape that was used during the 2016 primary and general election. Identity Crisis delves into the way that the Republican primary battle was shaped by this question of identity, specifically the ways in which candidate Donald Trump was able to leverage embedded tensions around social identity, especially in regard to issues like immigration. Through the use of substantial data sets that dive into voters’ choices over time, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck are able to parse policy and issue preferences, how those choices coordinate with partisan inclinations and candidate selection, and what shifted during the course of the election cycle in 2015 and 2016. This incredibly compelling book, accessible to academics and non-academics, examines the tensions around American identity and what it means to be an American today, while exploring how that very idea is contested and seen through partisan lenses. The book examines not only an understanding of individual identity, but also the ways that group identity continues to contribute to further partisan cleavage and polarization. The authors also find interesting backlashes within this political dynamic, as responses to antagonistic attacks on certain groups prompts a variety of responses among voters. Identity Crisis will help readers understand what happened in 2016—from a variety of perspectives and considerations of different dimensions of American politics. This podcast was hosted by Lilly Goren, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Carroll University in Waukesha, WI. You can follow her on Twitter @gorenlj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
One of 2013’s most important new books in political science was The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election (Princeton UP 2013). I had the chance to interview one of the co-authors, John Sides (Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University), for the podcast about the early web-exclusive release of several early chapter. You can find that interview here. This fall the final book was released and I interviewed the other co-author, Lynn Vavreck. Vavreck is Associate Professor of Political Science and Communication Studies at UCLA. The Gamble delivers on the promise of its initial chapters. Sides and Vavreck challenge conventional notions of what explains why candidates win presidential elections. They sift through the popular myths with extensive, original data that explains why President Obama won re-election in 2012. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
One of 2013’s most important new books in political science was The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election (Princeton UP 2013). I had the chance to interview one of the co-authors, John Sides (Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University), for the podcast about the early web-exclusive release of several early chapter. You can find that interview here. This fall the final book was released and I interviewed the other co-author, Lynn Vavreck. Vavreck is Associate Professor of Political Science and Communication Studies at UCLA. The Gamble delivers on the promise of its initial chapters. Sides and Vavreck challenge conventional notions of what explains why candidates win presidential elections. They sift through the popular myths with extensive, original data that explains why President Obama won re-election in 2012. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
One of 2013’s most important new books in political science was The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election (Princeton UP 2013). I had the chance to interview one of the co-authors, John Sides (Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University), for the podcast about the early web-exclusive release of several early chapter. You can find that interview here. This fall the final book was released and I interviewed the other co-author, Lynn Vavreck. Vavreck is Associate Professor of Political Science and Communication Studies at UCLA. The Gamble delivers on the promise of its initial chapters. Sides and Vavreck challenge conventional notions of what explains why candidates win presidential elections. They sift through the popular myths with extensive, original data that explains why President Obama won re-election in 2012. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices