Hotel Analyst Podcast

In this episode, we talk about how hospitality can help drive regeneration, the latest action in the hostel market, and what Airbnb and short-term rentals are up to.

This episode is a wrap of Q1 results, with a focus on Intercontinental Hotels Group and how much of an impact US exposure and Revpar guidance revision has had on share prices; we take a look at the under-discussed global giant Jin Jiang; and examine the latest data on the European accommodation sector from the European Travel Commission.

Third party 2.0: The acquisition of citizenM is the lead story this episode, the first with our mystery new host. You can also hear about Essendi, formerly known as AccorInvest, and the luxury plays of Hilton and Hyatt.

Using tech does not make a company a tech company. Otherwise, all companies would be in the technology sector. Alongside chatting about tech enablement in the hotel industry, we discuss real estate investment trusts and the Millwall of the hotel sector, Britannia.

Trump's tariffs - and the threat of tariffs - are already causing international havoc. What will be the impact on the hotel sector, and on international travel? Banks are back lending, with more finance available for hotel investors. And Accor signs a new partnership in India, as it looks to exploit the country's booming hotel and travel marketplace.

A bumper Berlin conference special, covering tariffs, Trump and tantrums. A fast-shifting series of threats around tariffs has already played havoc with stock markets, what will it mean for travel and hospitality? Hotel professionals in Berlin wonder what's coming next, as they enjoy a relatively strong performance still, across Europe. Will we see more publicly listed vehicles taken out by private equity? And alternative living formats are making their way onto the mainstream agenda.

Wyndham launches a loyalty debit card - but are they targeting a younger demographic really interested in earning points? Why the European hotel investment market is in a Goldilocks phase, with Greece a potential hotspot full of opportunities. And Trump's impact as he threatens travel bans in the name of protecting US citizens - at a point where US inbound travel has yet to return to pre-covid levels.

Both new build and refurbished hotels are setting new environmental standards, as investors realise the investment upside of more efficient buildings. But has the whole green debate moved on? Why is Dalata undergoing a strategic review? And lessons from a visit to the 2025 edition of the MIPIM property fair, as investment in new living sectors was debated.

Hotel investment deals have kicked of 2025 with strong volume, as the sector compares well alongside other real estate segments. Key money spent by the brand groups is growing, but is that such a bad thing? In Spain, hotel groups Melia and Riu look abroad for growth, from a constrained local market. Should Riu brand alone, or seek new partners?

IHG has acquired the Ruby hotels brand, and with it a growing portfolio of European lifestyle hotels - smart move? Choice and Accor are talking about moving upmarket, but have other structural issues to attend to. And at the OTAs, who will win the battle for the customer's eyeballs, as AI comes into play.

Stronger than expected final quarter numbers brightened the spirits of major hotel CEOs - but the markets were less positive, sending some shares lower on concerns about upcoming weakness. In Europe, the deal landscape looks to be improving, much to the delight of landlords such as Pandox. And Hyatt says enough m&a for now, as it plans how to digest its latest acquisition, Playa Hotels & Resorts. Do we believe them?

Starwood Hotels is back, as the original creator of the brand, Barry Sternlicht, revives the name - what will he do with it? Private equity investors are cashing out after a good run in Spain, both in the real estate asset world, and in hotel tech too. And hotels retain their crown as the most preferred asset class for hotels, according to Andrew's poll taking at recent industry events.

How will the hotel investment markets fare in 2025? There will be less portfolio deals, but the single asset market is expected to continue in good form. The big beast of white label operations, Aimbridge, restructures after building up an unsustainable level of debt; how did it get there? And India enjoys a purple patch, with strong hotel demand, limited supply - and plenty of hotel companies going to the public markets to raise funds.

Airline easyJet wants to more than double its package holiday business. Will it deal direct with hotels, where will it steal market share from - and will we all be using AI to choose our hotel and flight packages in future? The holiday park market has seen a new entrant in the UK, with GBP500m to spend - as the main players jostle to grow their portfolios. And an Australian operator of pod hotels is heading to London; Andrew shares his Japanese pod hotel experience.

A strong 2024 saw high volumes of hotel investment transactions across the UK and mainland European hotel markets. Will similar levels of activity be enjoyed in 2025? The SPACs, Soho House and Sonder, remain under pressure, with a new take-private offer appearing for the membership business; this time around, it appears major stakeholders may accept the offer. And French investment giant Covivio reaffirms its interest in hotels, as it takes its operational learnings from the hotel sector to change the way it manages its office and residential assets, too.

Experiential is the latest travel fad, or maybe it's a trend. Marriott has marched in and signed up two new brands, as glamping becomes the latest must-have for the big brand groups. In select service, northern European markets look tough, but private equity investors are lining up to buy into Spain. For those in the UK, such at Travelodge, employment cost rises are a big hit. And there's a feeling abroad that deal volume is rising, as sellers temper their pricing expectations, while buyers wrestle with continuing high debt costs.

A battle looms in alternative accommodation, as Expedia and Booking build their listings towards the scale of Airbnb, while still spending billions with Google. There's consolidation among the third party hotel managers, as they realise they need scale to drive their business forward. And the extended stay segment pushes forth once more, with the Ascott pushing its Quest brand into China, alongside local partner Jin Jiang.

Accor's firing on all cylinders, but its progress is slightly hobbled by its property owning affiliate AccorInvest, which needs to sell down properties - sometimes losing Accor the operational gig. Hyatt, meanwhile, continues to judiciously deploy cash, as it chooses its own path for growth. And, as it appears finance for hotel deals is getting easier, who are the winners?

The Hilton juggernaut accelerates its growth, leading the pack with NUG. Wyndham looks to ancillary income growth, after reorganising its tech stack. At Pandox, the deals stalemate is over, as it buys in London and Edinburgh, with more to come. While Dalata has set out its plans for European growth.

The mood of the market is lifting, as investor optimism rises - and, barring international tensions, local economic conditions are looking benign for the hotel sector. Technology remains a complex, yet valuable support for the hotel sector - but what impact will AI have on the big players? And Indian group Oyo confuses us once more with another cross-court volley - this time buying US economy hotel chain Motel 6.

More and more conversions are making their way into hotel brand pipelines. While converting other hotels to your brand is easy, converting from offices can be much harder. Why investors are liking the look of adjacent spaces of buildings with beds, notably build to rent in the UK. And the power of events, both sporting and entertainment, to drive hotel performance.

A refinancing at PPHE points to the end of cheap debt - but what is the right long term level for interest rates? In the US, regulators are bearing down on the airlines and loyalty programmes. Such attention can often be unwelcome...And the latest moves in Greece and Indonesia, as well visited tourist destinations work out how to manage the perceived curse of over tourism.

Holiday packages are becoming more popular once more, and that could put renewed pressure on hoteliers, as TUI and its peers increase their market power. The investment market is starting to warm up, with Pandox clocking up two acquisitions as sellers and buyers come to agreement on pricing. And more of Blackstone's private equity funds are heading into not just hotels, but hotel tech, as they acquire US software platform M3.

On the ropes aparthotel group Sonder finds a lifeline in a deal with Marriott - will this help it to profit? And Hyatt joins the big league with a lifestyle division, as it buys the Standard International brands and, with them, the creative team behind them. Plus, normalisation is here as hotel groups face a quarter of softening demand, and therefore the graphs start to slip downward. But as ever, while there are losers, we also spot some winners.

It's second quarter results season, so we mull over the results - weaker in China and the US, holding up elsewhere. Plus, how the different CEOs presented their outlooks, as many trimmed their expectations for the full year. Who has the best momentum? And, we told you so, business travel continues to improve in volume, returning close to pre-pandemic levels.

We run through some winners and losers in the current marketplace, and ponder the demise of Selina - where are the digital nomads? There's something not quite right about the finance markets, as private debt outperforms private equity. And branded residences may be a small niche, but they are a fast growing market that hotel brands seem to love.

One PE house sells Village Hotels to another PE house - what next for the vertically integrated UK chain, and was the deal more about redemptions and investment needs, than either party getting a great deal? Barcelona has called time on short term rentals, aiming to restrict further tourism growth in the city. What's the solution to over tourism? And Hyatt discovers a new conversion brand, wrested from partner Lindner, to give it more power in the growing landscape for switching existing properties.

Reflections from the Operational Real Estate Festival, held at the end of June 2024, which acknowledged the growing interest from investors in businesses linking a property element with the business that goes on inside that property. Capital is waiting to deploy, but the event heard there is still plenty of uncertainty, tempering the pace of deployment. And some thoughts on the UK and French elections, one terribly orderly and the other less so. While the outcomes are different, both had the input of a very broad spread of voter support - and a low turnout from a population tired of politicians.

Budget UK hotels saw a plateau in the first quarter, but remain confident for the rest of the year - but is it time for Whitbread to franchise Premier Inn? The SPACS Sonder, Soho House and Selina are all taking tough action to improve profitability, as investors wait....And the enigma that is Orient Express, as it takes investment from luxury goods group LVMH.

Whether you're feeling more rock and roll, or looking for a family friendly feel, can you find a hostel brand to suit you? Deal volume is rising with Eurazeo selling, Fattal and HR Group acquiring - signalling we must now be past the bottom of the market. But there's still little clear distress. And more Indian hotel groups are tapping the country's stock market - so is India the new China?

Selling experiences is a tough gig, and few are making money at it - but there's value in keeping guests entertained and engaged. Corporate travel is back, and still coming back, though online meetings have clipped the ultimate level of demand. Hotel companies are pushing into flexible offices - so how can they make that move a convincing offer?

The deal landscape is improving, with investors now getting used to the cost and tighter availability of debt - and some big deals coming to completion. How hospitality is still being ignored as officials look at how to reinvigorate urban centres in the UK. And frustration as European regulators look to bridle the digital giants, and its seems their latest moves have backfired and are damaging competition.

Straddling different accommodation asset classes, and running a hybrid business, can be tough. Never mind finding the right audiences, there are investors to educate too. Contrasting first quarter fortunes at Choice and Hyatt; with Hyatt continuing its not quite asset-light approach. And as the world travels once more, the issue of over tourism is becoming a big political issue. There are bad, and good, solutions out there.

IHG and Marriott look to grow conversions in their pipeline. IHG has cut its system fund charges, to enhance its attractiveness, as Marriott teases a new midscale brand designed specifically to encourage conversion signings. Spanish investor Azora has accelerated its long planned push in to hostels - who else will be challenging them in the market? And as there are signs of the hotel investment market defrosting, will it turn into a real melt?

A record set of results from Whitbread came along with more details on how it will optimise its restaurants and bars. Being vertically integrated has its benefits, but also growth challenges. Hilton and Wyndham are both looking to new brand additions for growth, as performance in their home US market flattens off. And all is quiet, calm and seemingly unaffected by geopolitical upheaval, for Scandinavian hotel groups Pandox and Scandic.

Thoughts from this year's IHIF in Berlin, where the transaction market looks on, becalmed, as the brands and operators enjoy better times. Wyndham and Hilton buy new brands, broadening their offer - but who do the brands really serve? And while SPACs have not been a source of great riches for many hospitality businesses, market listings remain in favour, as far as Hotel101 and Motel One are concerned.

As B&B Hotels and CitizenM potentially come to market, who will be in the mood to spend billions buying these brands, and grow them to the next level? Travelodge now looks to be changing its business model, with owners of the operating business backing a linked property company and buying a portfolio of Travelodge hotels. And Africa is seeing the hotel brands renew their march after the pandemic - as they discover some familiar challenges.

As delegates at MIPIM get over the most recent shocks to hit property markets, there comes a growing realisation that active asset management is increasingly essential, to add value in operational real estate. Student accommodation providers are looking to adjacent spaces to learn operational lessons, and seek growth opportunities. And China's big property conglomerates are under pressure financially - what will the impact be on Western hotel partners?

Deals off, deals on - as Choice abandons its plan to take over Wyndham, Barry Sternlicht reveals plans to launch a SPAC which will own a mix of US and European hotels, previously held by Starwood Capital. Saudi Arabia has hit a key milestone in expanding its tourism sector - and is making impressive progress. And in Europe, airlines and package groups are offering greater flexibility to keep up with continuing strong leisure demand.

The extended stay niche was fastest to recover after the pandemic - and now they're first to see performance level off, and face the economic headwinds out there. Worries continue over refinancing and the wall of debt the hotel sector faces - will it lead to distress and deals? And Greece has undergone an economic transformation, now its tourism market and hotels too are undergoing major change too, as international investors and brands arrive.

More new hotel brands are coming - are they any good for consumers, and will there be a fallout? Tourist taxes are being ramped up, as destinations use them to generate an income, in the name of moderating peak demand from visitors. And as Spain looks forward to a strong 2024, Asian markets are now enjoying strong tailwinds.

Accor, IHG and Hyatt are all looking to make more strategic moves, as they eye the last benefits of post-pandemic tailwinds. Choice hotels saw market conditions weaken in the US the fourth quarter - putting its share price under pressure, as it relies on that share price to buttress its hostile bid for Wyndham. And hospitality groups have taken a new direction in seeking public listings. Gone are US SPACs, with companies in Germany, Singapore and India tapping regional investor interest.

Marriott still sees tailwinds from growing group and business bookings; Wyndham worries about the impact on its business of the Choice bid, to date reckoned at a USD75m negative impact. Meanwhile in Europe, owner Pandox and operator Scandic are looking forward to a positive year of more growth across the continent. And as pub groups shift into boutique hotels, how should hotel brands react to this quiet, but growing competitive threat?

Soho House comes under attack from a short seller - but is the business fundamentally as worthless as they claim? Hilton signals a strategy switch, arguing now is the moment to consider acquisitions in a stressed market. And the alternatives in hostels bounce back, just as new format Outsite looks to grab unloved hotels.

India's local hotel groups are enjoying a strong economy, with growing demand, in a marketplace where there's little prospect of much more supply in the near term. Consumer travel behaviour is changing, and more are booking directly, and more in advance. But the latest resarch also has a warning for the OTAs of new competition from the East. And third party hotel managers are looking forward to growing deal flow, bringing with it the expectation of more new properties to look after.

The world is resetting around new demand drivers, new destinations and new flying routes after the pandemic - and there are winners as well as some losers. Consumers are tilting back towards hotels and away from short term rentals, just as the regulatory noose around them appears to be tightening. And hanging out with Best Western - a cheaper, more flexible branding alternative to the big brand groups.

It's a positive start to the new year, as consultants expect deal volume to improve - unlocking the restricted investment market. Major travel groups, including TUI, are looking to gain greater control over the hotels they sell as part of their packages. And thinking green, we're seeing sustainability now becoming a greater part of the funding landscape, giving borrowers discounts if they hit agreed environmental targets.

A big GBP800m purchase in London by Starwood Capital has brightened the investment community - could it be the moment private equity is back in the market? Plus, a portfolio of 66 Travelodge hotels trades, with the buyer being the US owner of the Travelodge operating business. And we delve into what French group Louvre is doing - a slumbering giant in the ownership of major Chinese group Jin Jiang.

Ahead of his upcoming Hoftel conferences, CEO Simon Allison provides his thoughts on deal flow into 2024, as banks start pulling the trigger. Other big issues, debated at his events, include the shifting focus of Spanish brands and owners, aligning with bigger brands and new distribution channels; and the ambitions of Middle Eastern players are a growing influence, liable to impact other regional leisure players as new destinations gain momentum.

Hospitality looks forward to 2024 with reducing inflation, interest rates looking as though they may have peaked - will it be a happy new year? Is Indian disruptor Oyo finding its mojo once more? And Philippine brand Hotel 101 is planning global expansion, backed by fractional ownership. And greater regulation is heading for the short term rental niche - but is it overall a good thing?

Budget hotel operators are trading strongly, but where is the value-add opportunity for investors in their property assets? Consolidation plays see those in the living space broaden their appeal to both customers, and to potential investors. And, despite tough economic conditions, the mood from recent hotel conferences was a fundamentally optimistic one.