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In this episode, Bob and Andrew invite Stephanie Segal, senior fellow of the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy, to give a forecast of the global economy in 2020. They unpack President Trump's recent address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the U.S.'s growing national debt, as well as the current state of the economy and where it might be heading.
In this episode, the Trade Guys and Andrew discuss the Trump administration's designation of China as a currency manipulator. They also welcome a special in-house guest, Jonathan Hillman, who is a senior fellow with the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and directs the Reconnecting Asia Project. Reconnecting Asia tracks new roads, railways, ports, and other infrastructure projects across Eurasia--and most notably, China's Belt & Road initiative. Download the full transcript here.
Keynote Remarks Norman R. Augustine Former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Lockheed Martin; former Undersecretary of the Army; current member of advisory boards to the Department of Homeland Security and Department of EnergyIntroduced by Matthew P. Goodman Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS Followed by an expert panel discussion including: Mikko Huotari Deputy Director, Mercator Institute for China StudiesDr. Richard Lester Associate Provost for International Activities, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvey Rishikof Director of Policy and Cyber Security Research and Visiting Research Professor at the University of Maryland Moderated by Stephanie Segal Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS Over the past year, the United States has introduced several new policy initiatives to limit foreign access to critical technologies, including tightening inbound investment screening procedures and expanding export controls on emerging and foundational technologies. At a Senate Intelligence Hearing on Worldwide Threats in February 2018, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned of other countries “exploiting the very open research and development environment” in the United States and counterintelligence risks from “nontraditional collectors, especially in the academic setting, whether it’s professors, scientists, students.” The United States is reevaluating its posture on foreign research collaboration. Various U.S. government agencies have increased scrutiny of researchers from sensitive countries while recent legislative proposals would restrict foreign students’ access to certain research projects. Policymakers have to evaluate the tensions between national security and an open and welcoming investment and innovation environment, as well as the degree to which such efforts should be coordinated with allies and partners. Notably, officials will have to decide whether to expand limits on research collaboration, while ensuring the United States remains the premier destination for top global talent. Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy at 2:00pm on Tuesday, June 4, for keynote remarks by Norman R. Augustine, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Lockheed Martin, former Undersecretary of the Army, and current member of advisory boards to the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Energy, followed by an expert panel discussion on balancing national security concerns with research competitiveness.This event is made possible through the generous support of member governments of the CSIS Allied Economic Forum.
Please join us on April 18 for a lively discussion of U.S.-Australia economic partnership. Participants will receive the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy’s latest brief, “Delivering Prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” a wide-ranging look at opportunities for U.S.-Australia coordination in the Indo-Pacific across five sectors (infrastructure, investment facilitation, energy, digital economy, and financial systems).PANELISTS: Bill Costello Minister-Counsellor of Development, Embassy of Australia Mark Sobel U.S. Chairman, OMFIF; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of the Treasury Nikos Tsafos Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS Matthew P. Goodman Senior Vice President and Simon Chair, CSIS MODERATED BY Amy Searight Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.
**In this episode of Director's Cut, Stephanie Segal of CSIS joins Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Maria Demertzis for a conversation about the tension between free trade and national security issues, and the emerging threats to multilateralism.** In a changing geopolitical order, with China on the rise, the linkage of economic and national security is more evident than ever. The boom of disruptive new technologies is accompanied by increasingly country-centric political tendencies, and the more and more antagonistic stance of the US towards the EU and China. Taken together, a unique setting emerges for dealing with pressing issues in economic security. Stephanie Segal, deputy director and senior fellow of the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy, joins Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and deputy director Maria Demertzis to discuss the looming challenges. They sketch out the approach taken by key global players to balance the continuous benefits of free trade against the need to safeguard national security interests. The new trade-restrictive measures – such as increased scrutiny over foreign direct investment – have obvious consequences for global economic growth and the rules-based multilateral trading system. The discussants elaborate on the importance of preserving multilateralism, and the role of international organisations in the process. For further reading, we recommend an [opinion piece](http://bruegel.org/2018/10/the-global-economys-three-games/) by Jean Pisani-Ferry where he portrays the current international economic and geopolitical order as increasingly reminiscent of chess, as well as an [economic blogs review](http://bruegel.org/2018/11/us-mid-term-elections-and-the-global-economy/) by Bowen Call on the impact of recent US mid-term elections on the world economy.
Four years after the U.S. and EU first imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea in March 2014, how effective have these sanctions been in changing the regime's behavior? In 2014, Russia experienced a deep recession as global energy prices precipitously dropped. But in 2018, the World Bank projects that Russia will experience GDP growth of around 1.7 percent and the Central Bank of Russia has effectively managed price stability. However, Russia is having to make painful budget choices and turning increasingly to China for infrastructure financing. As Russia continues its military interventions in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, its malign influence operations across Europe and in the United States, and recently deployed a chemical weapon on NATO territory, it appears that four years of Western sanctions has not altered Russian behavior in its neighborhood and beyond. If anything, Russia has used Western sanctions as a domestic policy tool to nationalize industries while retaining access to the Western financial system. This half-day event will explore the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and their impact on Russian foreign and security policy. Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Europe Program on the afternoon of Monday, May 7 for two expert panel discussions exploring the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and its foreign policy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD). This event is part of the Simon Chair's Economic Statecraft Speaker Series, a forum to highlight the strategic role of economics in foreign policy and to explore the making of international economic policy. It is made possible by the generous support of Arconic Foundation. AGENDA 12:30pm Lunch Served 1:00pm Panel One: Sanctions and the Russian Economy Sergey Aleksashenko Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings and Former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Elizabeth Rosenberg Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security David Murray Former Director of the Office of Illicit Finance, Treasury Department Moderated by: Matthew P. Goodman U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, Department of State Ambassador Kurt Volker Panel Two: Sanctions and Russian Foreign Policy 2:30pm William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS Olga Oliker Heather A. Conley Moderated by: Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) Keynote Speech 3:45pm CSIS Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Four years after the U.S. and EU first imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea in March 2014, how effective have these sanctions been in changing the regime’s behavior? In 2014, Russia experienced a deep recession as global energy prices precipitously dropped. But in 2018, the World Bank projects that Russia will experience GDP growth of around 1.7 percent and the Central Bank of Russia has effectively managed price stability. However, Russia is having to make painful budget choices and turning increasingly to China for infrastructure financing. As Russia continues its military interventions in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, its malign influence operations across Europe and in the United States, and recently deployed a chemical weapon on NATO territory, it appears that four years of Western sanctions has not altered Russian behavior in its neighborhood and beyond. If anything, Russia has used Western sanctions as a domestic policy tool to nationalize industries while retaining access to the Western financial system. This half-day event will explore the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and their impact on Russian foreign and security policy. Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Europe Program on the afternoon of Monday, May 7 for two expert panel discussions exploring the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and its foreign policy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD). This event is part of the Simon Chair's Economic Statecraft Speaker Series, a forum to highlight the strategic role of economics in foreign policy and to explore the making of international economic policy. It is made possible by the generous support of Arconic Foundation.AGENDA 12:30pm Lunch Served 1:00pm Panel One: Sanctions and the Russian Economy Sergey Aleksashenko Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings and Former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of RussiaElizabeth Rosenberg Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security David MurrayFormer Director of the Office of Illicit Finance, Treasury Department Moderated by:Matthew P. Goodman U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, Department of State Ambassador Kurt Volker Panel Two: Sanctions and Russian Foreign Policy 2:30pm William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS Olga OlikerHeather A. Conley Moderated by:Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) Keynote Speech 3:45pm CSIS Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Senator Warner's keynote begins at 1:22:20. When G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors met last month in Argentina, they highlighted the “immense economic opportunities” provided by transformative technologies. They also acknowledged, however, the attendant challenges, including changes to labor markets, the importance of adequate skills training, and the risk of increased inequality. Technological change, like globalization, will transform the future of work and education, underscoring the need to prepare labor markets and labor forces for future disruptions. While the benefits from trade and technology are tangible, so are the disruptions they produce. These changes are “equal opportunity” in the sense that workers across all sectors and skill levels will be affected, requiring policymakers to develop appropriate responses. Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Project for Prosperity and Development on the morning of Friday, April 20 for an expert panel discussion exploring opportunities and challenges facing public and private sector participants as they consider the future economy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Mark Warner (D-VA). This event is made possible by support from the Royal Embassy of Denmark. Welcome and Introduction 9:00am AGENDA 9:05am Panel Discussion Kristian Jensen Minister for Finance of Denmark Bruce Reed Co-Chair, Future of Work Initiative, Aspen Institute Susan Lund Partner, McKinsey & Company and McKinsey Global Institute E. Wayne Holden President and Chief Executive Officer, RTI International Moderated by: Stephanie Segal Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS 10:30am Keynote Speech Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) Introduced by: John Hamre President and CEO, CSIS
In this episode we assess the implications of Japan’s upper house election results following the victory for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party. CSIS Japan Chair Senior Fellow Nicholas Szechenyi and CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy Matthew Goodman break down the issues that shaped the election, evaluate the progress of Abenomics (4:10), and discuss prospects for constitutional revision (9:09). They also analyze the current landscape in Japanese politics and business (11:47), describe the debate over nuclear power (20:18), and examine what the LDP’s victory means for the U.S.-Japan alliance (22:23). Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Frances Burkham. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean.