Podcasts about Eurasia

Episode 459 of Hidden Forces is the twelfth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Kamran Bokhari, a strategic forecaster and geopolitical analyst who specializes on the Middle Eastern and Eurasia, about Iran's nationwide protests, what they reveal about the power and stability of the Iranian regime, and what the state of Iranian affairs portends for Iran's future, the region's geopolitics, and the strategic considerations and objectives of the United States. The conversation's opening hour traces Iran's modern formation—beginning in the early 1900s with the Constitutional Revolution, moving through the 1953 coup and the Shah's rule, and culminating in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and its aftermath. Kamran walks the audience through the evolution of Iran's dual military structure, explaining the critical distinction between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces (Artesh), and how the IRGC grew from an ideological militia into an oversized parallel state controlling everything from telecommunications to Iran's nuclear program, while becoming increasingly corrupt and internally divided. The second hour is devoted to analyzing the current protests engulfing Iran, how they differ from previous uprisings, and the implications for a severely weakened IRGC following Israel's dismantling of its proxy network, the relentless targeting of its commanders, and its failure to secure the safety of its own citizens from Israeli reprisals. They explore the regime's internal factionalization, the role of the merchant class in these protests, the potential pathways forward—from managed regime decay to military intervention to outright chaos—and the cascading effects that Iran's instability could have on its neighbors, from Turkey and Azerbaijan to Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 01/15/2026

SHOW SCHEDULE1-15-25`1923 GREENLAND Rival Factions Contending for Power in Post-Maduro Venezuela. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Following Maduro's detention, four major crime families are competing for authority in Caracas, including the Rodriguez siblings and military leadership. While Delcy Rodriguez shows cautious cooperation with the U.S. regarding oil and prisoners, the country remains unstable as criminal interests and political repression continue to stifle progress. Cuba's Collapse Amidst U.S. Oil Blockade and Economic Ruin. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The Trump administration has halted oil shipments to Cuba, exacerbating a crisis where the electrical grid is failing and life is becoming "impossible." Despite minimal aid from Mexico, the repressive communist apparatus remains ingrained, and the regime is expected to muddle through despite massive out-migration. Regional Tensions: U.S. Pressure on Mexico and South American Shifts. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. The U.S. is pushing Mexico for joint military operations against cartels, forcing President Sheinbaum into a "delicate dance" to protect sovereignty. Meanwhile, Brazil's Lula balances leftist ties against a conservative military, and Colombia shows a potential shift to the right as Petro's policies face significant discredit. Trade Integration and Security Concerns in Mercosur and Costa Rica. Guest: PROFESSOR EVAN ELLIS, U.S. Army War College. Mercosur has achieved a historic trade deal with the European Union, potentially offsetting U.S. economic pressure and deepening ties with China. In Costa Rica, rising public insecurity has led the government to consider El Salvador's "mega-prison" model as they head into elections dominated by concerns over organized crime. The Risks of Seizing Russia's Shadow Fleet at Sea. Guest: ANATOL LIEVEN, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. The U.S. seizure of Russian-owned "shadow fleet" tankers raises the risk of a direct military clash if European nations follow suit. Russia views a maritime blockade as an act of war. Hardliners in the Kremlin may seek to escalate to terrify the West into withdrawing support from Ukraine. Russia's Role as a Stabilizing Factor in Middle East Tensions. Guest: ANATOL LIEVEN, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Russia has reportedly arbitrated between Jerusalem and Tehran to prevent preemptive strikes and maintain stability in Eurasia. While Russia lacks the power to defend Iran from a U.S. attack, it seeks to avoid regional instability. Russia's diplomatic approach contrasts with perceived universal aggression from other global actors. Economic Realities: Chinese Struggles and U.S. Consumer Strength. Guest: CHRIS RIEGEL, CEO of Stratacache. China's economy is struggling, evidenced by declining imports of raw materials and factory workers facing destitution. In contrast, the U.S. economy remains strong, with banner retail sales during the Christmasseason. However, the "K-shaped" economy shows consumer fatigue in the quick-service restaurant sector. Strategies for a Democratic Transition in Venezuela and Cuba. Guest: CLIFF MAY, Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Marco Rubio is reportedly developing a plan for a gradual transition in Venezuela by making specific demands on the remaining "gangster regime." By cutting off subsidized oil to Cuba, the U.S. hopes to cause the collapse of the Castroite regime, encouraging people to seek liberation from tyranny. Canada's Strategic Pivot to China. Guest: CONRAD BLACK. Prime Minister Mark Carney is visiting Chinato establish a "new strategic partnership" and a "new world order." This mission serves as a "Plan B" to offset potential trade losses with the United States under President Trump, specifically regarding strategic minerals and the renewal of the USMCA agreement. The Upwardly Mobile but Anxious Middle Class. Guest: VERONIQUE DE RUGY. Despite reports of a shrinking middle class, data shows many individuals are actually moving into the upper middle class. However, significant anxiety remains due to rising costs in government-regulated sectors like healthcare, housing, and education. This discontent leads to a search for scapegoats among the elite. Cosmological Mysteries: The Little Red Dots. Guest: DINESH NANDAL. The James Webb Space Telescopediscovered "little red dots"—compact, bright objects in the early universe that are not easily explained as galaxies or accreting black holes. These findings challenge the standard model of cosmology, suggesting the universe matured much earlier than previously thought by 21st-century scientists. Mapping the Future of Space Observation. Guest: DINESH NANDAL. Advancing cosmology requires a "James Webb 2.0" with larger mirrors and a successor to the Chandra X-ray telescope. Funding is also needed for researchers to develop new mathematical models. While AI can assist with pattern recognition, human physicists remain essential for creating the necessary new theoretical frameworks. Sovereignty and the Russian Identity Crisis. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. Sovereignty is fundamentally tied to geography and identity. In the current period of "cratomorphosis," Russia exhibits defensive nationalism rather than expansionism. To the Kremlin, Ukraine remains the "cradle of Russia," making its loss a profound threat to Russian ethos, historical religious origins, and its personal identity. China's Quest for Legitimacy and Defense. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. The Chinese Communist Partyyearns for ancient China's legitimacy while defending its modern borders. Rather than traditional imperial expansion, China employs "total war" non-military means. However, the state currently faces a crisis of sovereignty as it implodes internally under disproven totalitarian models and intensifying defensive pressures. The Reassertion of American Empire. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. During Donald Trump's second term, the United States moved into an offensive mode to reassert dominance and energy security. Simultaneously, the European Union faces a crisis of legitimacy, with nation-states rebelling against its supra-state model. The EUlacks a cohesive vision, leading to internal distress. Lessons from the Superpower's Economic Resurgence. Guest: GREGORY COPLEY. The 21st century reveals that nations prioritizing energy security and enforced borders tend to succeed. President Trump's focus on manufacturing and cheap energy has bolstered the U.S. economy, positioning it as an unchallenged superpower. However, his dynamic approach often alienates allies while redefining grand strategy.

Russia's Role as a Stabilizing Factor in Middle East Tensions. Guest: ANATOL LIEVEN, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Russia has reportedly arbitrated between Jerusalem and Tehran to prevent preemptive strikes and maintain stability in Eurasia. While Russia lacks the power to defend Iran from a U.S. attack, it seeks to avoid regional instability. Russia's diplomatic approach contrasts with perceived universal aggression from other global actors.1900 RUSSIA

Government critics and pro-democracy campaigners used to be relatively safe when they fled into exile. Now transnational repression means that corrupt and abusive regimes can target them through a wide range of strategies ranging from online intimidation through to physical violence and assassination, no matter where they are in the world. So are we now living in the golden age of transnational repression – and if so, what does that mean for the future of civil liberties and political rights? Join the People, Power, Politics podcast as we talk to Nate Schenkkan, former Senior Director of Research at Freedom House, to discuss these issues and so much more! Transcript of the episode here Guest: Nate Schenkkan is a researcher and policy analyst specializing in authoritarianism, transnational repression, and democratic resilience. He previously served as Senior Director of Research at Freedom House. His previous work has examined authoritarian influence networks, repression of exiles and diasporas, and the erosion of democratic institutions across Eurasia and beyond. A frequent commentator and author, Schenkkan's research has been featured in major international outlets and policy forums, contributing to our understanding of how autocrats extend coercion across borders and how democracies can respond. Presenter: Dr Nic Cheeseman is the Professor of Democracy and International Development at the University of Birmingham and Founding Director of CEDAR. The People, Power, Politics podcast brings you the latest insights into the factors that are shaping and re-shaping our political world. It is brought to you by the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR) based at the University of Birmingham, United Kingdom. Join us to better understand the factors that promote and undermine democratic government around the world and follow us on Twitter at @CEDAR_Bham! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Conversations on Groong - January 16, 2026TopicsUnrest in IranRussia-Iran PartnershipSolovyov's StatementsTrump's “TRIPP Wire” in the CaucasusRelease of Armenian hostagesGuestPietro ShakarianHostsHovik ManucharyanAsbed BedrossianEpisode 506 | Recorded: January 14, 2026SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/506VIDEO: https://youtu.be/P5u4ppL9qK8#IranIsraelWar #IsraelIranConflict #Iran #Israel #IsraelConflict #Armenia #USForeignPolicy #Geopolitics #MiddleEastCrisisSubscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Aunque no lo notemos, la Tierra se mueve constantemente bajo nuestros pies. No hablamos solo de terremotos espectaculares, sino de desplazamientos lentísimos —milímetros al año— que deforman la corteza terrestre de manera continua. Uno de los mejores lugares del mundo para investigar estos procesos es la península ibérica y su entorno. Allí confluyen grandes placas tectónicas, pequeños bloques intermedios y una historia geológica extraordinariamente compleja. Precisamente en esta región se centra el trabajo reciente de Asier Madarieta-Txurruka, nuestro invitado en Hablando con Científicos. A partir de su estudio, publicado en Gondwana Research, hablamos de la compleja interacción entre las placas tectónicas de Eurasia y África, del papel del mar de Alborán como laboratorio natural y de cómo la información que proporcionan los terremotos y los satélites nos permite comprender los procesos que suceden en esta zona de colisión.

Aunque no lo notemos, la Tierra se mueve constantemente bajo nuestros pies. No hablamos solo de terremotos espectaculares, sino de desplazamientos lentísimos —milímetros al año— que deforman la corteza terrestre de manera continua. Uno de los mejores lugares del mundo para investigar estos procesos es la península ibérica y su entorno. Allí confluyen grandes placas tectónicas, pequeños bloques intermedios y una historia geológica extraordinariamente compleja. Precisamente en esta región se centra el trabajo reciente de Asier Madarieta-Txurruka, nuestro invitado en Hablando con Científicos. A partir de su estudio, publicado en Gondwana Research, hablamos de la compleja interacción entre las placas tectónicas de Eurasia y África, del papel del mar de Alborán como laboratorio natural y de cómo la información que proporcionan los terremotos y los satélites nos permite comprender los procesos que suceden en esta zona de colisión.

THE THEATER OF CHAOS IN PERSIA AND VENEZUELA Colleagues Gaius and Germanicus, Friends of History Debating Society, Londinium, 92 AD. From a wine bar in Londinium, Gaius and Germanicus analyze modern geopolitical tensions through a Roman lens. They discuss unrest in "Persia" (Iran) and Venezuela, noting that Roman armies traditionally fail in Persia. Germanicus argues the US administration employs a strategy of "Wagnerian" drama and "chaos"—similar to 19th-century British imperial meddling—to manage global transitions without direct war. They observe that while "theater" and subversive "wet work" are being used to shift US strategy away from Eurasia, these melodramas, particularly in Venezuela, lack a clear "Act Two" or resolution. NUMBER 11940

El Imperio mongol fue el mayor imperio contiguo de la historia de la humanidad. También fue uno de los que más rápido se formaron y de los que menos duraron. En apenas un siglo le cambiaron la cara a Eurasia gracias a una sucesión de campañas militares muy exitosas que fueron desde la península de Corea hasta el valle del Danubio. Surgió en plena estepa de la meseta mongola, en el corazón mismo de la de Asia Central a principios del siglo XIII, un lugar en el que vivían tribus nómadas no especialmente civilizadas. Su origen está indisolublemente ligado a la figura de Temujin, que tras unificar bajo su mando a estas tribus que se encontraban en estado de guerra permanente, fue proclamado Gengis Kan en el año 1206. Gengis Kan demostró ser un guerrero excepcionalmente dotado. Los mongoles, que eran grandes jinetes, desarrollaron una efectiva maquinaria de guerra que se basaba en una extrema movilidad, gran disciplina y los arqueros montados. Esto les permitió derrotar a ejércitos mucho más numerosos, en ocasiones incluso profesionales, de China, Persia, Mesopotamia, el centro de Asia y Europa del Este. La expansión mongola fue fulgurante. En una sola generación cabalgaron desde el océano Pacífico hasta el mar Negro. A su paso acabaron con imperios y dinastías bien consolidadas y borraron del mapa ciudades muy antiguas. Pero, tras la destrucción de la conquista, el imperio trajo la paz, la Pax Mongolica, que se adueñó de Eurasia durante buena parte del siglo XIII. Este periodo de relativa estabilidad permitió que la ruta de la seda floreciera como nunca antes lo había hecho y como no lo haría después. Esto facilitó y agilizó el comercio de seda, especias, porcelana y pólvora, pero también de ideas, religiones y nuevas tecnologías que viajaban en las caravanas comerciales de oriente a occidente. Fue durante esta época cuando el veneciano Marco Polo atravesó Asia y pudo conocer de primera mano el imperio. Tras su viaje de las maravillas escribió un libro que tuvo un gran impacto en la Europa tardomedieval. La administración mongola fue sorprendentemente práctica y se basaba en la meritocracia. Sólo los más capaces eran elegidos para servir al Gran Kan, tanto en la guerra como en la paz. Los mongoles crearon un gran sistema de correo, el Yam, que comunicaba los extremos de su imperio, y exhibieron una tolerancia religiosa poco habitual para la época. Esto permitió que cristianos, musulmanes, budistas y animistas convivieran bajo su protección siempre que pagaran los correspondientes tributos y respetaran la autoridad del monarca. Tras la muerte de Gengis Kan en 1227 el imperio continuó creciendo con sus sucesores y alcanzó su cenit territorial a finales de ese siglo. No obstante, la inmensa extensión de los territorios que controlaba y las disputas sucesorias terminaron por fragmentar el imperio. Se dividió en cuatro grandes kanatos: el Ilkanato en Persia, la Horda de Oro en Rusia, el Kanato de Chagatai en Asia central y la Dinastía Yuan en China, esta última fundada por Kublai Kan, nieto de Gengis. Kublai trasladó el centro de gravedad del imperio hacia una estructura imperial china de estilo tradicional. Fue él quien fijó la corte en la actual ciudad de Pekín. A pesar de su poderío, las divisiones internas, la peste negra y las dificultades para gobernar regiones tan distantes y diversas condenaron al imperio mongol a un inevitable declive. Para mediados del siglo XIV, el control mongol sobre la mayoría de estos territorios se había desvanecido. Brilló poco tiempo, pero lo hizo con tanta fuerza que cuando, ya en el siglo XV los navegantes europeos empezaron a navegar hacia Asia, la idea que tenían de aquel lugar era la del imperio de los mongoles. En La ContraRéplica: 0:00 Introducción 4:21 El imperio mongol 1:11:49 Jerusalén y Mahoma 1:15:42 El origen de los derechos humanos Bibliografía: - "La horda" de Marie Favereau - https://amzn.to/4qlhfMo - "Los mongoles, señores de Asia" de Juan José Fernández Doctor - https://amzn.to/4jwCDLG - "Breve historia de Gengis Kan" de Borja Pelegero Alcaide - https://amzn.to/49c8zBI - "The mongols" de Timothy May - https://amzn.to/3Ll0uBE · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Contra la Revolución Francesa”… https://amzn.to/4aF0LpZ · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK #FernandoDiazVillanueva #mongoles #imperiomongol Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

Today, Gerry Butts – former principal secretary to Justin Trudeau and current adviser to Prime Minister Carney – is on the show.Butts is also the vice chairman of the global political risk firm, the Eurasia group, which releases a “Top Risks” list every year. We'll drill down on a few of them, including their number one risk, the “U.S. political revolution”. The report makes the case that, outside of the U.S. itself, America's political upheaval has the greatest impact on Canada. We'll also discuss the “Zombie USMCA” deal and the future of NATO.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

On today's Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss the latest on the Ukraine war as the conflict prepares to enter its fifth year; the frontline as both sides are increasingly exhausted by the conflict; update on peace talks and prospects for ending the war; the increasing use autonomous systems driven by artificial intelligence; whether lessons from the war are being lost as innovation cycles accelerate; Vladimir Putin's drive to bolster Russia's economy in 2026 as Volodymyr Zelenskyy taps his intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov to replace Andrei Yermak as his chief of staff; whether the war still matters to Washington; and how Vladimir Putin will interpret the Trump administration's decision to apprehend Nicolas Maduro and claim rights to Venezuela's energy resources as well as rhetoric that America has a right to seize Greenland from Denmark.

CONQUEST, THE DANELAW, AND THE EASTERN RUS Colleague Eleanor Barraclough. The conversation shifts from raiding to conquest, detailing the arrival of the "Great Heathen Army" in England around 865. Barracloughexplains that this force was likely comprised of smaller mobile warbands that eventually reached a stalemate with King Alfred, leading to the creation of the Danelaw and lasting linguistic influences on English place names. The discussion then moves east to the "Rus" (rowers) who navigated the waterways of Eurasia. Led by figures like Rurik, these Scandinavians settled in Novgorod and later Kiev, establishing a political foundation in what is now Russia and Ukraine. NUMBER 2

The Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes span 5,000 kilometers west to east along the northern latitude of Asia. This unique ecozone allowed rapid movements of people, animals, goods, and ideas across Eurasia since prehistory and harbored numerous polities of pastoralists that made tremendous impacts on human history. However, the region's dynamic genetic history has been emerging only recently from archaeogenomic studies. Choongwon Jeong of Seoul National University discusses the current understanding of the region's genetic history, including the divergent genetic history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppe populations, the genetic interaction between the steppe pastoralists and their neighbors, and a comparison between the genetic history of human and domesticated animal populations. The emerging genetic view illuminates the poorly recorded history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes and provides an interconnected perspective on the history of Eurasia. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41197]

The Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes span 5,000 kilometers west to east along the northern latitude of Asia. This unique ecozone allowed rapid movements of people, animals, goods, and ideas across Eurasia since prehistory and harbored numerous polities of pastoralists that made tremendous impacts on human history. However, the region's dynamic genetic history has been emerging only recently from archaeogenomic studies. Choongwon Jeong of Seoul National University discusses the current understanding of the region's genetic history, including the divergent genetic history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppe populations, the genetic interaction between the steppe pastoralists and their neighbors, and a comparison between the genetic history of human and domesticated animal populations. The emerging genetic view illuminates the poorly recorded history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes and provides an interconnected perspective on the history of Eurasia. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41197]

The Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes span 5,000 kilometers west to east along the northern latitude of Asia. This unique ecozone allowed rapid movements of people, animals, goods, and ideas across Eurasia since prehistory and harbored numerous polities of pastoralists that made tremendous impacts on human history. However, the region's dynamic genetic history has been emerging only recently from archaeogenomic studies. Choongwon Jeong of Seoul National University discusses the current understanding of the region's genetic history, including the divergent genetic history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppe populations, the genetic interaction between the steppe pastoralists and their neighbors, and a comparison between the genetic history of human and domesticated animal populations. The emerging genetic view illuminates the poorly recorded history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes and provides an interconnected perspective on the history of Eurasia. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41197]

The Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes span 5,000 kilometers west to east along the northern latitude of Asia. This unique ecozone allowed rapid movements of people, animals, goods, and ideas across Eurasia since prehistory and harbored numerous polities of pastoralists that made tremendous impacts on human history. However, the region's dynamic genetic history has been emerging only recently from archaeogenomic studies. Choongwon Jeong of Seoul National University discusses the current understanding of the region's genetic history, including the divergent genetic history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppe populations, the genetic interaction between the steppe pastoralists and their neighbors, and a comparison between the genetic history of human and domesticated animal populations. The emerging genetic view illuminates the poorly recorded history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes and provides an interconnected perspective on the history of Eurasia. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41197]

The Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes span 5,000 kilometers west to east along the northern latitude of Asia. This unique ecozone allowed rapid movements of people, animals, goods, and ideas across Eurasia since prehistory and harbored numerous polities of pastoralists that made tremendous impacts on human history. However, the region's dynamic genetic history has been emerging only recently from archaeogenomic studies. Choongwon Jeong of Seoul National University discusses the current understanding of the region's genetic history, including the divergent genetic history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppe populations, the genetic interaction between the steppe pastoralists and their neighbors, and a comparison between the genetic history of human and domesticated animal populations. The emerging genetic view illuminates the poorly recorded history of the Kazakh and Mongolian Steppes and provides an interconnected perspective on the history of Eurasia. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41197]

We've got two major developments in Eurasia. We're talking about Ukraine disabling two ships in the Caspian Sea and Poland getting EU approval to build a nuclear power plant.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45byYNo

rWotD Episode 3155: Presto (Nike) Welcome to random Wiki of the Day, your journey through Wikipedia's vast and varied content, one random article at a time.The random article for Tuesday, 23 December 2025, is Presto (Nike).Presto was a sub-brand of Nike, Inc., introduced in 2002 as part of Nike's shift towards the fashion fitness trends of the 21st century. Initially, it offered the Nike Air Presto running shoe, as well as several watches and fashion accessories, all of which were characterized by a futuristic and colorful aesthetic.Presto achieved considerable success in the early 2000s, due to its highly innovative products and marketing strategy. Although the broader Presto concept ended in the 2000s, Nike continues to authorize the sale of its Presto running shoe as part of the NikeID project, with over 100 studios across Eurasia and North America carrying Presto shoes.This recording reflects the Wikipedia text as of 01:05 UTC on Tuesday, 23 December 2025.For the full current version of the article, see Presto (Nike) on Wikipedia.This podcast uses content from Wikipedia under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License.Visit our archives at wikioftheday.com and subscribe to stay updated on new episodes.Follow us on Bluesky at @wikioftheday.com.Also check out Curmudgeon's Corner, a current events podcast.Until next time, I'm neural Niamh.

A version of this essay has been published by rediff.com at https://www.rediff.com/news/column/is-india-standing-alone-in-2025/20251222.htm2025 has been a disastrous year for the US, surely in foreign affairs and economics. The trade war, far from strengthening the economy, has shown the limits of American power: the capitulation to Chinese supplier power on rare earths, and a strategic retreat in the face of Chinese buyer power on soybeans, for example.The dramatic rise of Chinese generativeAI, which will undercut US Big Tech, is another problem. The US cannot afford to be the globocop any more, and the new National Security Strategy seeks a US withdrawal into ‘Fortress America'. It may mark the end of the vaunted ‘American exceptionalism' as well as the ‘liberal rules-based international order'.In an earlier time, this would have led to the famous Thucydides Trap, but in effect the US has gone into an ‘anti-Thucydides Trap' because it unthinkingly paved the way for China's rise, seduced by the short-term benefit of low-cost Chinese goods while ignoring the long-term strategic disaster. In the 20th century, Britain collapsed suddenly, but it is merely a tiny island off Eurasia. I never expected continent-sized America to follow suit in the 21st century.Meanwhile, in a fine example of “manufacturing consent”, the discourse in the US is not focusing on the global problems facing the country, but on MAGA bullying of H1-B Indians and on the Epstein files, which, on the face of it, is a silly exercise in moralization. I believe it was Hermann Hesse who said something to the effect that Americans are not interested in morals, being content with moralization.But the entire kowtowing to China has serious implications for India. One of the pillars of Indian foreign policy for decades has been the idea that it is a strategic counterweight to China in the US's calculations. But if the US has really ceded Asia to China (I recall President Obama saying as long ago as 2009 that the US and China would “work together to promote peace, stability, and development in South Asia”) then the famous ‘pivot to Asia' is null and void.A couple of years ago, I wrote that the most obvious thing for the US's Deep State to do would be to form a G2 condominium with China, divide up the world amongst themselves, and set up respective spheres of influence. This was predicated on America's relative decline, and China's economic and military rise to be, for all intents and purposes, a peer. I thought this would take a decade or more, but, lo and behold, the US is caving in furiously to China right now.In addition, I wrote about the surprisingly large and malign influence exerted by Britain, whereby it plays a ‘master-blaster' role, leading the US by the nose, usually to America's detriment. Britain's ‘imperial fortress' Pakistan seems to be involved in every terror incident, yet President Trump's new-found camaraderie with them (“here, some more F-16 goodies for you”) is yet another indictment of their twisted priorities.And Britain seems to be “winning”, too: on the one hand, they have finally defeated Germany, which they couldn't do via two World Wars: the latter's economy, its electricity grid, and its vaunted mittelstand and its automobile industry are in shambles. On the other hand, Britain is the one major European power that has not been defeated by Russia, so they think they can, conversely, defeat them. France (Napoleon) and Germany (Hitler) learnt otherwise.The pointless Ukraine War is bankrupting Europe; I wrote about how this is hastening the end of the European century and how ‘Europe' is reverting to what it was through most of history: unimportant ‘Northwest Asia'. This could well also be Britain's revenge against Europe, which it exited in a huff via Brexit: British elites have looked down upon Europeans all along.I mention all these not to show that I was somehow prescient, but that things we have been observing for some time are coming to a head: the US National Security Strategy is the capstone of the New World Order. And it seems to codify these trends: hegemony to China with Asia as its sphere of influence, the abandonment of Europe to its own devices, a focus on the Americas in a new ‘Donroe Doctrine' (so to speak).In the background are continuing terror attacks such as the one in Sydney, murderous attacks on Alawites in Syria, the car bomb in Delhi, and the lynching and burning alive of a minority Hindu youth, Dipu Chandra Das, in Bangladesh by a frenzied mob. The world is not a safe place.There was also a defining moment: the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker. Far from being a show of strength, this may well be an admission of weakness: Venezuela is no competitor, and this is like the US invasion of defenseless Panama some years ago. It is, however, a declaration that the Americas belong to the US sphere of influence (the ‘Donroe' Doctrine).Sadly, China may demur: it views the Americas are adjacent to them (just across the Pacific) and have made inroads into many countries, including Panama, and ironically are funding a proposed alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua, as well as a major Brazil-Peru railroad project (all the better to ship in raw materials from both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and to ship out “rubber dogshit from HongKong” back to them). Their $3 billion Chancay deepwater port in Peru has already been inaugurated.China is now a $500 billion trading partner for South America, overtaking the US, yes, overtaking the US. To top it all, the ports on both sides of the Panama Canal, i.e Cristobal (Atlantic side) and Balboa (Pacific side) are run by Hong Kong companies, which of course means the CCP does. In fact, it is blocking US firm Blackrock's acquisition of these ports.China therefore has serious assets in the Americas, and large commercial interests. The US can pretend it is supreme in the Americas, but the reality may be a little different.Meanwhile, the US has more or less abandoned its Quad partners in Asia and acknowledged Chinese hegemony there: in other words, that half of the condominium is done. When the new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said something that was obvious and perfectly within her rights to worry about Japan's security, the Chinese came down on her like a ton of bricks, wolf-warrior style. The normally voluble Trump said nothing at all in support of Japan.Regarding India, there has been a persistent tilt towards Pakistan during and after Operation Sindoor; and the imposition of harsh tariffs. The increasingly volatile situation in Bangladesh which is the result of a likely US-backed ‘regime-change' operation is a significant security threat to India because of the collusion of jihadi, Pakistani and Chinese-proxy elements there and the very real concern about the cutoff of India's Northeast from the mainland, apart from the ongoing murders and ethnic cleansing of Hindus and Buddhists there.Now comes the New York Times, which I generally despise as a propaganda arm of the Deep State. But they show some self-awareness in their editorial “America cannot win alone”. No man is an island, as John Donne wrote some years ago. And America is not a singular colossus any more either, and it needs alliances. It hurts me (as an Americophile) how rapidly the US is declining in relative terms, and perhaps even absolute terms.The best indicator of this decline is in the crown jewels of the US: its technology sector. On the one hand, the entire US stock market has been propped up by the Magnificent Seven and the alleged promise of the generativeAI boom. On the other hand, China's patented “over-invest, scale up, get to be lowest-cost producer, drive competitors out of business” is repeating in industry after industry: the latest is automobiles, where the famous German marques are history.Trump's surrender on Nvidia's H200 chips is an indication that China is playing the trade-war game much better than the U.S. China has amassed a $1 trillion trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, an unprecedented feat that shows its trade power. Not only is this because of supply-chain dominance, but an analyst suggests it's also because China is now on the verge of delivering a knockout blow to US/Western tech.There are news reports that China has almost managed to replicate EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) lithography from ASML, one of the key areas in chipmaking that was beyond China's reach. They used former ASML employees of Chinese descent, as well as less advanced technologies from ASML itself, Canon and Nikon.This is the context in which one has to critique Trump's 2025 US National Security Strategy. In summary, it shows a narrowing of America's expansive self-image, the beginnings of a ‘Fortress America' mindset and an ‘America First' doctrine. The ‘promotion of democracy' is downplayed (aka ‘regime change', as we have seen in Bangladesh. Thank goodness!) and fighting other people's wars (think Ukraine) has been de-emphasized.It fits in very well with the G2 condominium idea, as it focuses on national interests and explicitly rejects globalism, elevates economic matters while suggesting the use of military might as an element of dealmaking, and asks ‘allies' to shoulder more responsibility.Europe is downgraded, China is the prime focus with an emphasis on deterrence (e.g., Taiwan), supply-chain resilience and balanced trade, the Indo-Pacific gets short shrift, and the emphasis is on the Americas as, so to speak, the US's private playpen, harking back to the 19th century.India gets almost no attention: it is mentioned four times as compared to 21 times for China, with the tone shifting from ‘strategic partner' or ‘leading global power' to a more transactional expectation of burden-sharing and reciprocity. The Quad is downplayed too. India will need to maintain multi-alignment (e.g., with Russia via RELOS agreements), diversify dependencies, and accelerate self-reliance. India is on its own, as I said in “The Abhimanyu Syndrome”. At least twenty-five years of wooing the US has gone down the drain. Back to the drawing board.At the beginning of 2025, I must admit I was optimistic about Indo-US relations under Trump's presidency. I did not think the G2 condominium would arrive so soon, especially under Trump, or that the eclipse of the US would be so sudden and so dramatic. India had at least one bright spot in 2025: the rapidly-growing economy, despite US tariffs. I really can't see much that went well for the US. Truly an annus horribilis. In 1999, I wrote that that year was terrible for India, but 2025 may have been worse for the US, in my opinion.Malayalam podcast created by notebookLM.google.com:1800 words, 20 Dec 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, we travel to the Netherlands to speak with Brian Koopmans, a validation engineer and media volunteer for the Church of the Nazarene's Eurasia Region. Brian discusses the launch of the "Everyday Eurasia" podcast and the unique challenges of producing content for a region spanning numerous languages. We also delve into Dutch history, exploring the legacy of theologian Jacobus Arminius and Brian's upcoming documentary project. Finally, hear Brian's heart for missions and his desire to serve the church full-time through media.   Everyday Eurasia Podcast   Lifelong Learning Code: 80890 Click here to learn about Lifelong Learning.  

On today's Land Warfare program, sponsored by American Rheinmetall, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss prospects to end the fighting in Ukraine as Western powers including the United States suggest security guarantees in exchange for Kyiv renouncing NATO membership as Russia rejects foreign troops on Ukrainian soil and continues to demand Ukraine hand over all of Donbass; the dynamics on the battlefield as Volodymy Zelensky visits Kupiansk that Russian forces say they occupied and how Ukrainian forces continue to defend Pokrovsk; whether the Vladimir Putin's regime is as vulnerable as Western analysts suggest; Kyiv's use of unmanned craft to strike Russia's “shadow fleet” at sea and a Kilo-class conventionally powered submarine in Novorossiysk; stories in 2025 that didn't get the attention they deserved; and the storylines to track in the coming year as the Ukraine war entered its fourth year.

Qui trovate il mio nuovo libro "PAUSA LIBRO": https://geopop.it/Pausa-Libro-su-Amazon Cosa c'è davvero sotto lo Stretto di Messina? In questo video vi porto in un viaggio nella geologia tra Calabria e Sicilia: una zona dove Africa, Eurasia e microplacche mediterranee si muovono, si scontrano, si strappano. Vi racconto i concetti principali per capire la dinamica geologica dello Stretto e aggiungere questo tassello agli altri aspetti – economici, sociali, politici, ambientali, ingegneristici – per farvi un'idea vostra sul tema “Ponte sì o Ponte no”. Spoiler: Se cercate un sì o un no, questo non è il video per voi. Se volete capire cosa accade sotto lo Stretto, allora siete nel posto giusto. Vi lascio qui in basso i link dei video correlati e la bibliografia Prendi parte alla nostra Membership per supportare il nostro progetto Missione Cultura e diventare mecenate di Geopop: https://geopop.it/ngCbN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can the United States advance its interests without abandoning its core values? Alexander Vindman, retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and former director for European Affairs on the White House's National Security Council, presents a discussion on the critical interplay between morality, values and power in the practice of geopolitics and national security.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, six U.S. presidential administrations across both parties crafted policies for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia that unintentionally emboldened Russia and played into its imperialist, centuries-long mythos of regional hegemony, by pursuing short-term transactional policies. The result: military aggression and full-scale invasion. It was all too foreseeable.  Vindman will discuss the shifting U.S. foreign policy landscape, what a just peace and lasting end to the war in Ukraine might look like, the administration's increasingly transactional approach to international relations, and Trump's heavy-handed approach to national security and domestic politics. About the Speaker  Dr. Alexander Vindman, a retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel, was the director for European Affairs on the National Security Council. Before that, he served as the political-military affairs officer for Russia for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and as an attaché at the U.S. Embassies in Moscow and Kyiv. While on the Joint Staff, he authored the National Military Strategy for Russia. He earned a Master's from Harvard University, where he served as a Hauser Leader, and a Master's and Doctorate from Johns Hopkins, where he is a senior fellow. Dr. Vindman leads the national security think tank Institute for Informed American Leadership, is the president of the nonprofit Here Right Matters Foundation, an executive board member for the Renew Democracy Initiative, a senior fellow at the Kettering Foundation, and a senior advisor to VoteVets. Dr. Vindman is the author of the "Why It Matters" Substack and the New York Times bestselling books Here, Right Matters and The Folly of Realism. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For decades Western policymakers have struggled to understand the mindset of the Russian people and their leaders. This episode of The Transatlantic brings together two Russia experts who provide unique perspectives into the challenges American leaders often face when negotiating with Russian officials. Join James Collins, former Ambassador to Russia, and Wayne Merry, the officer in Embassy Moscow who authored a 1993 dissent cable predicting the adversarial turn of post-Soviet Russia, for a wide-ranging conversation about their combined decades inside Russia, a look inside the Vladimir Putin's world, and their thoughts on what will determine the future of Russia. -- Read E. Wayne Merry's Dissent Cable here: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/32704-document-1-wayne-merry-dissent-channel-cable-american-embassy-moscow -- Ambassador James F. Collins is an expert on the former Soviet Union, its successor states, and the Middle East. Ambassador Collins was the U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001. Prior to joining the Carnegie Endowment, he served as senior adviser at the public law and policy practice group Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, LLP. Before his appointment as Ambassador to Russia, he served as Ambassador-at-Large and Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for the newly independent states in the mid-1990s and as Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Moscow from 1990 to 1993. In addition to three diplomatic postings in Moscow, he held positions at the U.S. embassy in Amman, Jordan, and the consulate general in Izmir, Turkey. He is the recipient of the Secretary of State's Award for Distinguished Service; the Department of State's Distinguished Honor Award; the Secretary of State's Award for Career Achievement; the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service; and the NASA Medal for Distinguished Service. Before joining the State Department, Ambassador Collins taught Russian and European history, American government, and economics at the U.S. Naval Academy. -- E. Wayne Merry is Senior Fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. He is widely published and a frequent speaker on topics relating to Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Balkans, European security and trans-Atlantic relations. In twenty-six years in the United States Foreign Service, he worked as a diplomat and political analyst specializing in Soviet and post-Soviet political issues, including six years at the American Embassy in Moscow, where he was in charge of political analysis on the breakup of the Soviet Union and the early years of post-Soviet Russia. He also served at the embassies in Tunis, East Berlin, and Athens and at the US Mission to the United Nations in New York. In Washington he served in the Treasury, State, and Defense Departments. In the Pentagon he served as the Regional Director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia during the mid-nineties. He also served at the Headquarters of the US Marine Corps and on Capitol Hill with the staff of the US Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He was later a program director at the Atlantic Council of the United States

The Three Archetypes of American Global Strategy — Gaius & Germanicus — Gaius and Germanicus analyze the prospective American National Security Strategy for 2025–2026, framing it as a deliberate return to the "Trump corollary" of the Monroe Doctrine emphasizing hemispheric supremacy and regional sphere-of-influence arrangements. Germanicus categorizes American foreign policy history into three religious-like ideological visions: Washington'sisolationist "beacon on the hill," the Monroe-Adams "realm of liberty" (defensive empire protecting American interests), and the Jacksonian "Prometheus unbound" (universalist ideological expansion spreading democratic values). Germanicus argues the incoming administration systematically rejects the "Wilson to Biden" lineage of global interventionism and messianic crusading in favor of Theodore Roosevelt-style "flexible realism" emphasizing power, national interest, and transactional diplomacy. Gaius details this shifted strategy as consolidating American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and Pacific region while according Russia respect and a recognized sphere of influence in Eurasia, explicitly rejecting Cold War confrontationalism. Gaius documents that Kremlin leadership has explicitly welcomed this "flexible realism," viewing it as a geopolitical departure from perpetual adversarial Cold War mindset. Germanicus contrasts this transactional approach with the "Manichaean" moral crusades characterizing recent American foreign policy, suggesting the American public now explicitly favors strategy avoiding military entanglement while prioritizing domestic prosperity and economic reconstruction, mirroring isolationist sentiments following World War I. 1911 USS MAINE IN HAVANA HARBOR

David DeBatto is host of the ‘No Delusion Zone' podcast @NoDelusionZone is a retired U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, a geopolitical analyst, writer, and podcaster. David is an Iraq war veteran who served as Team Leader of a Tactical Human Intelligence Team (THT) in operations within Iraq and is also a former police officer. David is considered too conservative for the progressive left and too independent minded for the radical right and seeks to challenge political dogma and the naked self-interest of politicians. DAVID DEBATTO LINKS: @NoDelusionZone https://www.protectingtherepublic.com/podcasthttps://x.com/ddebattohttps://www.kyivpost.com/authors/743----------Chuck Pfarrer is an American writer, film producer and former navy SEAL. He'll be a familiar and trusted presence to many who have tuned in to the Mriya Report on ‘X' over the course of the war. As an author, Chuck has penned screenplays, novels and comic books, as well as non-fiction works. His works feature themes relating to the military, and of course is a strong advocate for Ukrainian victory. ----------Timothy Ash, who has been professional economist for more than 30 years, with two thirds of that in the banking industry. Timothy's specialism is emerging European economics, and he writes and blogs extensively on economic challenges for leading publications such as the Kyiv Post, Atlantic Council, the Financial Times, and the United Business Journal. He is also an Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House and has advised various governments on Ukraine-Russia policy and specifically on the impact of sanctions.TIMOTHY ASH LINKS:https://timothyash.substack.com/ https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/timothy-ashhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-ash-83a87158/https://cepa.org/author/timothy-ash/----------This is super important. There are so many Battalions in Ukraine, fighting to defend our freedoms, but lack basics such as vehicles. These are destroyed on a regular basis, and lack of transport is costs lives, and Ukrainian territory. Once again Silicon Curtain has teamed up with Car4Ukraine and a group of wonderful creators to provide much-needed assistance: https://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/autumn-harvest-silicon-curtainAutumn Harvest: Silicon Curtain (Goal€22,000)We'll be supporting troops in Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, and other regions where the trucks are needed the most. 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar", Black Raven Unmanned Systems Battalionhttps://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/autumn-harvest-silicon-curtain----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/----------

On today's Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomic Aeronautical Systems, Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss the US drive to end the Ukraine war; whether a deal will fracture the NATO alliance; European support for Ukraine should Washington decide to partner with Moscow; impact of European Central Bank's decision against being a “backstop” on Ukrainian use of 140 billion euros in seized Russian assets; the impact of the corruption scandal involving those close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; Russian claims to have taken Pokrovsk from Ukrainian forces; and whether Ukraine is delivering as much pain on Russia through strikes on energy and shipping as Russia is on Ukraine through massive air strikes targeting civilians.

This episode we look at many of the natural events and talk about those observing and writing things down, and why they may have wanted to do so. For more, check out our podcast blogpage:  https://sengokudaimyo.com/podcast/episode-139   Rough Transcript: Welcome to Sengoku Daimyo's Chronicles of Japan.  My name is Joshua and this is episode 139: Observing the "Natural" World. Members of the Onmyou-ryou, dressed in the official robes of their office, sat around in their observation tower, measuring the location of the stars.  They kept their light to a minimum, just enough so that they could write down their observations, but not so much that it would destroy their vision.  As they looked up, suddenly they saw a strange movement: a streak through the sky.  They waited, and observed, and then there was another, and another after that.  It was as if the stars themselves were falling from the heavens.  They watched as it seemed that the constellations themselves were melting and falling apart.  Quickly they scribbled down notes.  Tomorrow, with the light of day, they would consult various sources to see just what it could mean.  For now, their role was simply to observe and record.   Welcome back, everyone.  It is the height of holiday season in the US as I record this, and in our narrative we are in the middle of the reign of Ohoama, aka Temmu Tennou, who came to power in 672 and who has been shoring up the Ritsuryo state instigated by his late brother, Naka no Oe, aka Tenji Tennou.  We have talked in recent episodes about how Ohoama put a lot of the state under the control of members of the royal family, or at least those with claims to royal blood, and how he had also begun work on the Chronicles—the very works that we have been using to try and understand the history of this and earlier periods.   It seems clear that Ohoama and his cohorts were doing their best to solidify their control and, in the process, create what they felt was a modern state, leveraging the continental model, but not without their own local flavor.  After all, they were also investing in the kami based rituals of state and specifically in Ise shrine, which they claimed as an ancestral shrine for their lineage. This episode, let's dig into another thing that was getting reported around this time.  And that is… science!  Or at least observations of the world and indications of how people were interacting with it. Before going into the subject, I want to acknowledge that "science", or "Kagaku" in modern Japanese, may not look like what we think of as "science" today.  The word "Kagaku" itself appears to come about in the late Edo period, and became associated with the western idea of "Science" in the Meiji period.  Today we think of it as observations, yes, but also testing via the scientific method. I think it might be more appropriate to categorize a lot of earlier science under a term like "learning" or "study", and it seems to have encompassed a wide range of topics of study, some of which we would include as "science" and some which we might refer to more as "arts".  There is also a very fine line with religion and philosophy as well. From a modern perspective, I think one could fairly argue that "science"—particularly the so-called "hard" sciences—refers to something that can be empirically tested via the scientific method.  So you can see something, form a hypothesis, create a test, and then that test should produce the same results no matter who conducts it, assuming you account for the variables. And please don't @ me about this… I know I am simplifying things.  This isn't a podcast about science unless we are talking about the social sciences of history and archaeology. In contrast to our modern concept of science, much of what we see in the Asuka era is built around using our reasoning to arrive at the truth of something.  In cases where we are dealing with clearly physical phenomena that have observable causes and effects, this can lead to remarkably reliable results.  One example of this is calendrical science—it isn't that hard to observe the passing of days and seasons.  Even the rotation of the earth and the movements of stars and even something with as large a period as comets could be observed and tracked, especially if you had centuries of data to comb through.  In fact, they often would predict things that it turns out they couldn't, themselves, see.  They could predict that an eclipse would occur, for example, even when that eclipse was only visible somewhere else.  And they didn't have to calculate gravitational pull, mass, or distances between different heavenly bodies for that to occur. Similarly, in the agricultural sphere: you had so many people who observed the seasons and would figure out new ways of doing things.  It doesn't take an understanding of chlorophyl to know that plants generally do better when exposed to sunlight. I believe the leap happens when you get to things that go beyond purely observable means.  Sickness, for example—how do you explain viruses or germs without equipment like microscopes to see what our eyes alone cannot?  And if such "invisible" things could cause so much damage, then why could there not be other "invisible" elements, such as kami and boddhisatvas?  And as humans we are driven to make connections.  It is one of the things that has driven our technological innovation and rise, but it is also something that can easily go awry.  Like when you are sitting in a dark house, alone, and you hear a noise.  Rationally, you might know that houses settle and creak, but that doesn't necessarily stop your brain from connecting it with thoughts that someone must be in the house making that noise. Or even how we make judgments based on nothing more than how someone talks or what they look like, because our brains have made connections with those things, for good or ill. A large part of the rationalization that was accomplished in Asian thought had to do with concepts of Yin and Yang, the negative and the positive, the dark and the light.  This was thought of as a kind of energy—qi or ki—that was embedded in things.  We discussed this somewhat back in episode 127, because yin yang theory, along with the five element theory, known as Wuxing or Gogyou in Japanese, became embedded in the idea of the calendar.  Why was summer hot, except that it was connected with an excess of fire energy?  And the cold, dark days of winter would be associated with an excess of water, naturally. I should note that while this is one of the more comprehensive philosophical systems in use, it was not the only means by which various phenomena and effects were rationalized.  After all, it had to be imposed on a framework of how the world otherwise worked, and descriptions of the world came from a variety of places.  There was, for example, the Classic of Mountains and Seas, or Sanhaijing, which detailed the world as envisioned in the period before the Qin dynasty, although there were occasional updates.  The Sanhaijing  described regular plants and animals in the same breath as gods and monsters.  There were also various buddhist sutras, which brought their own cosmological view of the universe that had to be squared with other visions, including those passed down locally describing the archipelago as the "Reed Plain" and giving particular importance to eight of the islands—though which eight depends on which variant of the creation myth you are referencing. To categorize the study of the natural—and what we would consider the supernatural—world around them, the Ritsuryou set up specific bureaus.  One of these was the Onmyou-ryou, the Bureau of Yin-yang, also known as the Onyo no Tsukasa.  This Bureau oversaw divination, astronomy, time, and calendars.  At its head was the Onmyou-no-kami.  Below them were the various scholars studying the core subjects, as well as technical practitioners to carry out the rites and divination. On the continent, priority was generally given to astronomical and calendrical studies, and many of the more magical practices or rituals would fade away, likely because there were local Taoist institutions who could take up much of that work.  In Japan, however, it seems that the calendrical studies tended to ossify, instead, while onmyoji came to fill a role not just for the state but also among the population for divination and other such practices.  Even into the Edo period one could find private onmyoji, and the Bureau itself lasted until the very beginning of the Meiji period. Another important institution of the Ritsuryo government for learning was the Daigakuryou, the Bureau of Great Learning.  Students of Japanese may recognize the term "Daigaku" referring, today, to universities. The original concept for the Daigaku-ryou, or Daigaku no Tsukasa, was focused on the study of those things that were considered perhaps a bit more practical and necessary to anyone who might want a political career.  Since this was founded on concepts of Confucian government, it is little wonder that it was originally designed to focus on Confucian studies, among other things.  This fits into the idea of a supposed meritocracy, where one's education was part of the examination.  You may recall from Episode 115 we talked about the National University in Chang'an, which is likely something that the Daigaku Ryou could only ever dream of becoming. Early arts taught at the Daigaku Ryou included the Confucian classics, mathematics, writing, and Chinese pronunciation.  These were all things that you would need to know to become a part of the bureaucracy The idea of a school may have been born along with the early institution of the government, with mention as early as 671, in the last year of Naka no Oe's reign, but we don't have it clearly established in the code until later.  Full operations may have been somewhat delayed due to the tumultuous events of Ohoama's accession to power in 672, but we do see it explicitly mentioned in the year 675.  On the first day of the year we are told that Students from the Daigaku Ryou, along with students from the Onmyou-Ryou and from the Gaiyaku Ryou, the Bureau of External Medicine; along with the Woman of S'ravasti, the Woman of Tara, Prince Syeonkwang of Baekje, and Silla labourers offered presents of drugs and various rarities. We talked about the first two, the Daigaku-ryou and the Onmyou-ryou, but the Gaiyaku Ryou doesn't seem to have a lot of information out there beyond this mention.  Later there would a "Ten'yaku Ryou", or Bureau of Medicine, established in the code.  Since we don't have any extant codes from this period beyond what was written down in the Nihon Shoki, we don't know for certain what the Gaiyaku-ryou was , and it is possible that the Gaiyaku-Ryou was a precursor to the Ten'yaku Ryou.  "GAI" means "outside" or "external", leading me to wonder if this referred to external medicine in contrast to internal medicine, or if it meant medicine or drugs from outside teh archipeloago. I would point out that these students are found with the Woman of S'ravasti, or Shae; the Woman of Tara; a Baekje prince and Silla labourers.  In other words, they were all people from outside of the archipelago.  This is not entirely surprising as it was from outside that much of the learning was coming into the country. "Yaku" or "Kusuri", which can be translated as either "Drugs" or "medicine", could refer to a number of things.  How effective they were is somewhat questionable. Almost certainly some of them had confirmed medicinal efficacy, but others may have been thought to have been effective due to things like their connection to the five elements, or wuxing, theory. For example, something red might be assumed to have a warming effect because of the presumed presence of the fire element.  And the power of the placebo effect no doubt made them seem at least partially effective.  Consider, for example, how many people will swear by certain remedies for the common cold when all it really does is distract you, or perhaps make you a bit more comfortable, until the symptoms pass on their own. A more certain science was probably that of Astronomy, which we've mentioned a few times.  The passage of the stars through the sky was something that could be easily observed.  There is a theory that some of the first lines in the Yijing, or book of changes, may actually be a description of the changing of seasons as different aspects of a given constellation rise over the horizon, and the placement of certain stars would help in the adjustment of the lunar calendar, since the moon's orbit does not match up exactly with the solar year, and year the solar year was quite important to things like agriculture and even sailing to the mainland. This all makes 675 a seemingly banner year for science, as four days after the presentation of medicine to the throne, the government erected a platform by which to observe the stars.  This wouldn't need to be much—it could have been an earthen mound, or just a tower, from which one could get above the ground, presumably see over any buildings, to the horizon.  Granted, Asuka might not be the best place for such observations, with the nearby mountains meaning that the true horizon is often obstructed.  Nonetheless, it may have been enough to make calculations. Astronomy platforms, or Tenmondai, would continue to be used up until at least the Meiji period.  Without a telescope, observations were somewhat limited—though they also didn't have the same level of light pollution that we have today.  Remember, many woke just before dawn and went to sleep not too long after the sun went down, which only makes sense when you are living in a place where creating light, while doable, also ran the risk of burning your entire house to the ground. It is worth noting that the sky for the ancient Japanese was likely quite different than what most of us see when we look up, unless you are fortunate enough to live in a place with very little light pollution.  For many of those living today in the cities and suburban landscape, go outside at night and you might see the moon and some of the brightest stars, but for most of the ancient Japanese, they would look up and see the heavenly river, the Amakawa, or Milky Way.  They would have looked up at a sky glittering with myriad dots of light, as well as planets and more.  It was both familiar and strange—something one saw regularly and yet something that was also extremely inaccessible. Astronomical observations would have been important for several reasons, as I've mentioned.  They would have been used to keep the calendar in check, but they would also have likely been used to help calibrate the water clock, which helped to tell time.  Of course, going back to the five elements and yin yang theory, it is also believed that the energy, the qi or ki, changed with the seasons and the movements of the stars and planets—planets were not known as such, of course, but their seemingly erratic movements compared to bright lights in the sky meant they were noticed and assigned values within the elemental system. One of the things that came with the changing seasons, the heavenly movements, and the flow of ki was a concept of "kata-imi", literally directional taboos.  There were times when certain directions might be considered favorable or unfavorable for various actions.  This could be something as simple as traveling in a given direction.  In the centuries to come this would spawn an entire practice of kata-tagae, or changing direction.  Is the north blocked, but you need to travel there, anyway?  Well just go northwest to say hello to a friend or visit your local sake brewery, and then travel due east.  Ta-da!  You avoided going directly north!  There were also mantra-like incantations that one might say if they had to travel in an inauspicious direction to counteract the concept of bad influences. This also influenced various other things, and even today you will often see dates where a year and month might be followed by simply the character for "auspicious day" rather than an actual day of the month. So observing the heavens was important, and it was also important that they tostudy the works of those on the continent, whose records could help predict various astronomical phenomena.  Except that there was one tiny problem:  I don't know if you've noticed, but Japan and China are in two different locations.  Not all astronomical phenomena can be observed from all points of the globe.  The Northern Lights, for example, are rarely seen in more southerly latitudes, and while eclipses are not too rare, a total eclipse only impacts certain areas of the earth, along relatively narrow paths. I mention this because it isn't always clear if the records we get in the Nihon Shoki are about phenomena they directly observed or if they are taking reports from elsewhere and incorporating them into the narrative.  One such event is the comet of 676. The entry in the Nihon Shoki tells us that in the 7th lunar month of the 5th year of Temmu Tennou, aka 676 CE, a star appeared in the east that was 7 or 8 shaku in length.  It disappeared two months later. We've mentioned some of this before, but the sky was divided up into "shaku", or "feet", though how exactly it was measured I'm not entirely sure.  It appears to be that one foot was roughly 1.5 degrees of the sky, give or take about a quarter of a degree, with 180 degrees from horizon to horizon.  So it would have been about 10 to 12 degrees in the sky.  Another way to picture it is if you hold out your arm towards the object, and spread your index and little finger, it would probably fit between those two points.  This comet hung around for some time, and a great part about a comet like this is that it was viewable from multiple locations.  After all, as the earth turned, different areas were exposed to the comet as it passed through our part of the solar system.  Thus we have records of it from not just the Nihon Shoki:  We also find it in the Anglo-Saxon chronicles, where it was thought to have foretold the end of Bishop Wilfred's control of Northumbria.  We also see it in Tang, Silla, and Syrian sources. These sources aren't always in complete agreement.  For one thing, they noted when they first saw it, which might have been impacted by local conditions.  And then conversion between lunar and solar calendars can also sometimes get in the way.  Roughtly speaking, we have the Nihon Shoki providing dates of somewhere from about August or September of 676, on the Western calendar, to October or November. Tang sources put it from 4 September to 1 November.  Silla Chronicles claim that it first appeared in the 7th lunar month, so between August and September.  A Syrian Chronicle notes a comet from about 28 August to 26 October in the following year, 677, but this is thought to have been a mistake.  European sources generally seem to claim it was seen in August and lasted for three months.  All of these sightings put it at roughly the same time. Working with that and with known comets, we think we actually know which comet this is:  The Comet de Cheseaux also known as the Comet Klinkenberg-Cheseaux.  And I should mention this is all thanks to a research paper by M. Meyer and G. W. Kronk.  In that paper they propose that this is the comet with the designation of C/1743 X1, or the common names I just mentioned.  If so, based on its trajectory, this comet would have been visible in 336, 676, 1032, 1402, 1744, and is next predicted to show up in 2097.  And no, those aren't all exactly the same amount of time.  It is roughly every 350 years or so, but with the movements of the solar system, the planets, and various gravitational forces that likely slow or speed up its movement, it doesn't show up on exactly regular intervals.  Still, it is pretty incredible to think that we have a record of a comet that was seen the world over at this time, by people looking up from some very different places. Comets were something interesting for early astronomers.  They may have originally been seen as particularly ominous—after all, in the early eras, they were hardly predictable, and it would take years to get enough data to see that they were actually a somewhat regular occurrence.  In fact, it is likely that early astronomers were able to figure out eclipse schedules before comets.  Still, they seem to have come to the realization that comets were in fact another type of natural and reoccurring phenomenon.  That isn't to say that they didn't have any oracular meaning, but it did mean they were less of an obvious disturbance of the heavenly order. We have another comet mentioned in the 10th lunar month of 681, but that one seems to have had less attention focused on it, and we don't have the same details.  Then in the 8th lunar month of 682 we have an entry about a Great Star passing from East to West—which was probably a shooting star, rather than a comet.  Comets, for all that they appear to be streaking across the sky thanks to their long tails, are often relatively stable from an earthbound perspective, taking months to appear and then disappear again. Then, on the 23rd day of the 7th month of 684 we get another comet in the northwest.  This one was more than 10 shaku in length—about 15 degrees, total, give or take.  Given the date, we can be fairly confident about this one, as well: it was the famous Halley's comet.  Halley's comet is fascinating for several reasons.  For one, it has a relatively short period of about 72 to 80 years, though mostly closer to 75 to 77 years in between sightings.  The last time it visited the earth was in 1986, and it is expected back in 2061.  Halley's comet has been recorded since the 3rd century BCE, and, likely because of its short period, it was the first periodic comet to be recognized as such.  There are other periodic comets with short periods, but many of them are not visible with the naked eye.  Halley's comet is perhaps the most studied comet, given its regular and relatively short periodicity.  It is also connected to the famous writer, humorist, and essayist, Samuel Langhorne Clemens, aka Mark Twain.  He was born only a few days after the comet reached perihelion in 1835 and died a day after it reached the same point again in 1910, and while he may not have visited Japan in his lifetime, it was a period of great change both in his home country of America and in Japan.  America, of course, would undergo a Civil War over the issue of slavery in the early 1860s, and shortly after that Japan would have its own civil war in the form of the Meiji Revolution.  And while he never visited—and translation could only do so much to capture the art of his prose—Mark Twain's works were apparently quite influential in Japan in the early 20th century. Of course, comets were just one of the celestial phenomena to be observed.  The astronomers were interested in just about anything happening in the sky.  We have accounts of both solar and lunar eclipses, and not necessarily full eclipses either.  We even have notice of the movement of some planets, such as in 681, when they noted that the planet mars "entered" the moon. Obviously the astronomers weren't recording every raincloud that came through—at least not in the main chronicles—but they did capture a fair number of events.  They did record particularly memorable storms.  For instances, in the 8th lunar month of 675 there was a storm that is said to have caused sand to fly and which then damaged houses.  This sounds like a wind storm without rain—after all, if there was rain, you would expect that the sand would have been wet and tamped down.  It is possible to have hurricane level winds without the rain.  While typhoons typically bring rain, especially as they usually build up their strength at sea, it is possible to have the winds alone, as I've experienced, myself, in Tokyo.  This most likely happens in an isolated area—there is water and rain somewhere, but the typhoon can be large, so parts of it may only get the wind and little or no rain.  I wonder if something like that happened in this instance.  It is also possible that this record refers to actual sand being brought across from the continent.  In some instances, sand can be lifted up from as far away as Mongolia and carried all the way to Japan, though it is pretty rare. And it wasn't just wind and sand.  We get accounts of hail coming down as large as peaches, torrential rainstorms, and even ash, likely from a volcanic eruption that was otherwise unrecorded.  There are also accounts of snow, though typically recorded in times where you wouldn't expect to see it, such as the third lunar month, which would mean snow in late April or early May. Mostly these storms are mentioned in terms of how they affected the immediate fortunes of the living, but sometimes storms did even more damage.  In 682, for example, a hoar-frost was reported in both Shinano and Kibi in the 7th lunar month.  On its own, this probably wouldn't have been worth mentioning, but the chroniclers add that because of storms the "five grains had not formed".  So storms had diminished the crops and the hoar-frost was apparently the killing blow.  The harvest that year would be lean, and it would not be a happy time for many that winter. And then, just as important as what was happening was what was not.  There are several mentions of droughts, particularly towards the end of Spring, early Summer.  This is traditionally a drier period, and if it is too dry it could harm the harvest.  And so the government was expected to find a way to bring the rain—a tall order, the general resolution to which seems to be prayers and rituals designed to bring rain.  In a place like Japan, I suspect that it was usually just a matter of time before the prayers were "successful", thus reinforcing their presumed efficacy. Some of the things that they recorded were a bit more mysterious.  For example, in the second lunar month of 680 we are told that a sound like drums was heard from the East.  There are many things this could theoretically be, from rumbles of thunder to some other phenomenon, though the following year we have a note about thunder in the West, so theoretically they knew the difference between thunder and drums.  Later that same year, 680, we are told that there was a "brightness" in the East from the hour of the dog to the hour of the rat—about 8pm to midnight.  Was this some kind of aurora?  But wouldn't that have been in the north, rather than the east?    Could it have been some kind of lightning?  But that is a long time for a lightning storm to hang around.  And there are other strange things, some of which seem impossible and we have to doubt.  For example, in 684 they said that, at dusk, the seven stars of the Big Dipper drifted together to the northeast and sank.  Unless they are just recording the natural setting of the stars of the big dipper.  Certainly, over time the constellation appears to rotate around the north star, and it dips down to or below the horizon in the autumn months.  So were they just talking about the natural, yearly setting of the stars, or something else? There may be some clues in that the 11th lunar month, when that was recorded, we see several other heavenly phenomena recorded.  Two days after the Big Dipper set, at sunset, a star fell in the eastern quarter of the sky that we are told was as large as a jar.  Later, the constellations were wholly disordered and stars fell like rain.  That same month, a star shot up in the zenith and proceeded along with the Pleiades until the end of the month.  While this sounds like shooting stars and a possible meteor shower, a later commenter suggested that this was all a heavenly omen for the state of the court, showing the "disordered" state of the nobility at this time.  Of course, this was also a year and change before the sovereign's eventual passing, so there is also the possibility that the Chroniclers were looking at events later and ascribing meaning and importance after the fact. In another account of something seemingly wonderous: in 682 we are told that something shaped like a Buddhist flag, colored like flame, was seen by all of the provinces and then sank into the Japan sea north of Koshi.  A white mist is also said to have risen up from the Eastern mountains. There are various things that could be going on here.  It strikes me that the white mist could be a cloud, but could also be something volcanic.  And the flame colored prayer flag makes me think about how a high cloud can catch the light of the rising or setting sun.  That could look like a flag, and can seem extremely odd depending on the other conditions in the sky. Or maybe it was aliens. Okay, it is unlikely that it was aliens, but I think that these do give an idea of the kinds of records that were being made about the observed phenomena.  Obviously the Nihon Shoki is recording those things that were considered particularly significant for whatever reason.  This could just be because it was something odd and unexplained, or perhaps it was more well known but rare.  It may have even had religious connotations based on some aspect, like evoking the image of Buddhist flags.  And it is possible that it was thought to have had significant impact on events—perhaps even an impact that isn't clear to us today, many centuries removed from the events. Some things were clear, however.  Lightning strikes are often mentioned specifically when they strike something of note.  In 678, we are told that a pillar of the Western Hall of the New Palace was struck by lightning, though apparently the building itself survived.  Then, in 686, Lighting appeared in the southern sky with a large roar of thunder.  A fire broke out and caught the tax cloth storehouse of the Ministry of Popular affairs, which immediately exploded in flames.  After all, a thatched roofed, wooden building filled with kindling in the form of cloth—and likely a  fair amount of paper and writing supplies to keep track of it all—sounds like a bonfire waiting to happen.  There were reports that the fire had actually started in Prince Osakabe's palace and then spread to the Ministry of Popular Affairs from there. It is also worth noting that recording of such events was still somewhat new to the archipelago as a whole. They were learning from the continent, but also defining their own traditions. Observations of natural phenomena weren't just relegated to celestial occurrences or weather.  After all, there was something else that one could observe in the sky:  birds.  Now this wasn't your average bird-watching—though I'm not saying that there weren't casual birders in ancient Japan, and if we ever find someone's birding diary from that era I think that would be so cool.  But there were some things that were significant enough to be mentioned. For example, in 678 we get a report of "atori", or bramblings.  Bramblings are small songbirds which are found across Eurasia.  Notably they are migratory, and are known to migrate in huge flocks especially in the winter time, and sure enough on the 27th day of the 12th month we are told that the bramblings flew from the southwest to the northeast, covering the entire sky.  This makes me think about some of the other mass migrations that used to occur that have largely been reduced significantly due to habitat loss, disruption to traditional migratory routes, and other population pressures on various bird species.  Still, having so many birds that it blocked out the sky certainly seems a significant event to report on.  We later see a similar account in 680, with the flock moving from southeast to northwest.  Given the location of Asuka it sounds like they were flocking in the mountains and heading out over the Nara Basin, perhaps seeking food in another mountainous area. In 682, the birders were at it again.  This time, around midday on the 11th day of the 9th lunar month, several hundreds of cranes appeared around the Palace and soared up into the sky.  They were there for about two hours before they dispersed.  Once again, cranes are migratory and known to flock.  Cranes are also known as a symbol of long life and joy—and I can understand it.  Have you ever seen a flock of cranes?  They are not small birds, and they can be really an incredible sight.  Flocks of cranes themselves were probably not that rare, and it was no doubt more about so many gathering around the palace which made it particularly special. It wasn't just birds in the sky that were considered important symbols, though.  Birds often are noted as auspicious omens.  Usually strange birds, plants, or other such things are found in various provinces and presented to the throne.    So in 675, Yamato presented auspicious "barn-door fowl", likely meaning a fancy chicken.  Meanwhile, the Eastern provinces presented a white falcon and the province of Afumi presented a white kite.  Chickens are associated with the sun and thus with the sun goddess, Amaterasu, and albino versions of animals were always considered auspicious, often being mentioned in Buddhist sources.  Later, in 680, we see a small songbird, a "Shitodo", also described as white, and probably albino, sent to the court from nearby Settsu. Then, in 681 there is mention of a red sparrow.  Red coloration is not quite the same as albinism, though it is something that does occur at times, when the brownish coloration comes out more red than brown, and I suspect this is what we are talking about.  This is most likely just a recessed gene or genetic mutation, similar to causes for albinism, but just in a different place in the DNA.  As for why it was important:  I'd first and foremost note that anything out of the ordinary (and even some ordinary things) could be considered a sign.   Red was also seen as an auspicious color, so that may have had something to do with it as well.  And then there is the concept of Suzaku, the red bird of the south.  Suzaku is usually depicted as an exotic bird species of some kind, like how we might depict a phoenix.  But it was also just a "red bird", so there is that, and perhaps that was enough.  Not that this red sparrow was "Suzaku", but evoked the idea of the southern guardian animal.  A year prior, in 680, a red bird—we aren't told what kind—had perched on a southern gate, which even more clearly screams of the Suzaku aesthetic. It is probably worth noting here that in 686, towards the end of the reign, not that anyone knew it at the time, Ohoama decided to institute a new nengo, or regnal period.  It was called Shuuchou—red or vermillion bird—and it likely referred to Suzaku.  This nengo was cut short, however, with Ohoama's death that same year.  Nengo were often chosen with auspicious names as a kind of hope for the nation, so clearly "red bird" was considered a good thing. A month after the red sparrow, Ise sent a white owl, and then a month after that, the province of Suwou sent a red turtle, which they let loose in the pond at the Shima palace.  Again, these were probably just examples of animals seen as auspicious, though they would have likely been recorded by the Onmyou-ryou, who would have likely combed through various sources and precedents to determine what kind of meaning might be attached to them. Color wasn't the only thing that was important.  In 682, the Viceroy of Tsukushi reported that they had found a sparrow with three legs.  There are numerous reasons why this could be, but there is particular significance in Japan and Asia more generally.  A three legged bird is often associated with the sun Andusually depicted as a black outline of a three legged bird inside of a red sun.  In Japan this was often conflated with the Yata-garasu, the Great Crow, which is said to have led the first mythical sovereign, Iware Biko, to victory in his conquest of Yamato.  Thus we often see a three legged crow depicted in the sun, which was an object of particular veneration for the Wa people from centuries before.  And I suspect that the little three-legged sparrow from Tsukushi  I suspect that this had particular significance because of that image. Animals were not the only auspicious things presented to the throne.  In 678, Oshinomi no Miyatsuko no Yoshimaro presented the sovereign with five auspicious stalks of rice.  Each stalk, itself, had other branches.  Rice, of course, was extremely important in Japan, both from a ritual and economic sense, so presenting rice seems appropriate.  Five stalks recalls things like the five elemental theory—and in general five was consider a good number.  Three and five are both good, prime numbers, while four, pronounced "Shi", sounds like death and is considered inauspicious.  Three, or "San" is sometimes associated with life, and five is associated with the five elements, but also just the fact that it is half of ten, and we have five fingers on one hand and in so many other ways, five is regarded as a good number in much of Asia. That the stalks had multiple branches likely referred to them bearing more than the usual amount of rice on them, which seems particularly hopeful.  Certainly the court thought so.  In light of the auspicious gift, all sentences of penal servitude and lower were remitted.  In 680, Officials of the Department of Law gave tribute of auspicious stalks of grain, themselves.  I'm not sure, in this case, that it was all that they hoped, however, as that began three days straight of rain and flooding. A year earlier, in 679, we are told that the district of Ito, in Kii, immediately south of Yamato, sent as tribute the "herb of long life".  We are told that it "resembled" a mushroom—probably meaning it was a mushroom, or maybe something formed into a mushroom shape.  But the stem was about a foot long and the crown was two spans, about 6 feet in diameter.  This is pretty incredible, and I have to wonder if there is a bit of exaggeration going on here. Another tribute was a horn found on Mt. Katsuraki.  It branched into two at the base, was united at the end, and had some flesh and hair still attached, about an inch in length.  They claimed it must be horn or a Lin, or Kirin, sometimes referred to as an Asian unicorn—a mythical creature considered to be quite auspicious and benevolent.  This was on the 26th day in the 2nd lunar month of the year 680, probably around March or April.  I highly suspect that what they found was an oddly shaped bit of antler from  a buck whose antlers had begun to come in and which might have been taken out by wolves or bears or something else altogether.  The fact that the ends were said to be fused together could just be referring to some kind of malformation of the antlers.  The fur and flesh could mean that the antlers were still growing—antlers would probably just be coming in around early spring time.  Still, there is no telling how long it was there, so it could have been from the previous year as well.  Attributing it to a kirin seems a bit of a stretch, but it was clearly something unusual. Animals and plants were recorded in tribute, but also when something odd happened.  Fruiting out of season was one such occurrence, which we've seen elsewhere in the chronicles as well.  There was even a record when the famous Tsuki tree outside of Asukadera had a branch fall down.  Presumably it was a large and noticeable branch, and by now this appears to have been a tree with a bit of age to it that had seen a lot, so it makes sense it got a mention. Finally, we go from the heavens to the earth.    Perhaps the most numerous observations in the Chronicles were the earthquakes.  We've noted in the past that Japan is extremely active, volcanically speaking, so it makes sense that there are multiple accounts of earthquakes each year, especially if they were compiling reports from around the country.  Most of these are little more than just a note that there was an earthquake, but a few stand out. The first is the 12th lunar month of 678.  We are told that there was a large earthquake in Tsukushi—modern Kyushu. The ground split open to the width of about 20 feet for more than 30,000 feet.  Many of the commoners' houses in the area were torn down.  In one place there was a house atop a hill, and though the hill crumbled down the house somehow remained intact.  The inhabitants had apparently been home and must have been oblivious, as they didn't realize anything had happened until they woke up the next morning. Again, probably a bit of hyperbole in here, but if we think back to things like the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, where large areas of land shifted noticeably along the fault lines, it is likely that this was a similar or even more catastrophic event.  And here I'll give a quick plug for Kumamoto, which is still working to rebuild from the earthquake, and if you ever get a chance, I recommend a visit to the Kumamoto Earthquake Memorial Museum or Kioku, where you can see for yourself just how powerful mother nature can be. Another powerful earthquake was mentioned in the 10th lunar month of 684.  If the earthquake in Tsukushi had hit mostly agricultural areas, based on the description, this seems to have hit more populated regions.  We are told that it started in the dark of night, the hour of the boar, so about 10pm, give or take an hour.  The shaking was so bad that throughout the country men and women cried out and were disoriented—they could not tell east from west, a condition no doubt further hindered by the dark night sky.  There were mountain slides and rivers changed course, breaking their banks and flooding nearby areas.  Official buildings of the provinces and districts, the barns and houses of the common people, and the temples, pagodas, and shrines were all destroyed in huge numbers.  Many people and domestic animals were killed or injured.  The hot springs of Iyo were dried up and ceased to flow.  In the province of Tosa, more than 500,000 shiro of cultivated land sank below sea level.  Old men said that they had never seen such an earthquake.  On that night there was a rumbling noise like that of drums heard in the east—possibly similar to what we had mentioned earlier.  Some say that the island of Idzu, aka Vries Island, the volcanic island at the entrance of Edo Bay, increased on the north side by more than 3,000 feet and that a new island had been formed.  The noise of the drums was attributed to the gods creating that island. So here we have a catastrophic quake that impacted from Iyo, on the western end of Shikoku, all the way to the head of Edo Bay, modern Tokyo.  This appears to be what seismologists have labelled a "Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake".  Similar quakes have occurred and are predicted to occur in the future., along a region of Japan from the east coast of Kyushu, through the Seto Inland Sea, including Shikoku, through the Kii peninsula and all the way to Mt. Fuji.  The Nankai Trough, or Southern Sea Trough, is the area where the continental shelf drops down, and where the Philippine tectonic plate slips underneath the Eurasian—or more specifically the Amuric—plate.  As these plates move it can cause multiple events all along the trough at the same time.  Since being regularly recorded, these quakes have been noted every 100 to 150 years, with the last one being the Showa Nankai quakes of 1944 and 1946. For all of the destruction that it brought, however, apparently it didn't stop the court.  Two days after this devastating quake we are told that Presents were made to the Princes and Ministers.  Either they weren't so affected in the capital, or perhaps the date given for one of the two records is not quite reliable.  Personally, I find it hard to believe that there would be presents given out two days later unless they were some form of financial aid.  But what do I know?  It is possible that the court itself was not as affected as other areas, and they may not have fully even grasped the epic scale of the destruction that would later be described in the Chronicles, given the length of time it took to communicate messages across the country. Which brings us back to the "science" of the time, or at least the observation, hoping to learn from precedence or piece out what messages the world might have for the sovereign and those who could read the signs.  While many of the court's and Chronicler's conclusions may give us pause, today, we should nonetheless be thankful that they at least decided to keep notes and jot down their observations.  That record keeping means that we don't have to only rely on modern records to see patterns that could take centuries to reveal themselves.  Sure, at this time, those records were  still a bit spotty, but it was the start of something that would be remarkably important, and even though these Chronicles may have been focused on propaganda, the fact that they include so many other references are an incalculable boon to us, today, if we can just see to make the connections.  And with that, I think I've rambled enough for this episode.  We still have a couple more to fully cover this period. Until then, if you like what we are doing, please tell your friends and feel free to rate us wherever you listen to podcasts.  If you feel the need to do more, and want to help us keep this going, we have information about how you can donate on Patreon or through our KoFi site, ko-fi.com/sengokudaimyo, or find the links over at our main website,  SengokuDaimyo.com/Podcast, where we will have some more discussion on topics from this episode. Also, feel free to reach out to our Sengoku Daimyo Facebook page.  You can also email us at the.sengoku.daimyo@gmail.com.  Thank you, also, to Ellen for their work editing the podcast. And that's all for now.  Thank you again, and I'll see you next episode on Sengoku Daimyo's Chronicles of Japan.  

** VIDEO EN NUESTRO CANAL DE YOUTUBE **** https://youtube.com/live/U1iir6JkLzc +++++ Hazte con nuestras camisetas en https://www.bhmshop.app +++++ #actualidad #geopolítica #guerraenucrania ¿Siguen las negociaciones de paz o solo es una maniobra táctica? ¿Qué impacto real tienen las sanciones cinéticas —ataques ucranianos a refinerías, puertos, radares, plantas de gas y centros logísticos— sobre la economía rusa? ¿Está Moscú usando las conversaciones como una pausa operativa para recomponer fuerzas? ¿Puede la Unión Europea permitirse una Rusia inestable y golpeada energéticamente? ¿Es esta la antesala de un cambio estratégico mayor? En este nuevo Frente Geopolítico, Francisco García Campa y Lope Guerrero analizan: - El estado real de las conversaciones de paz. - Las presiones de EE.UU., Turquía y la UE para forzar un alto el fuego. - El efecto acumulado de los ataques ucranianos: refinerías incendiadas, oleoductos interrumpidos, caída de ingresos energéticos. - Cómo afectan estas “sanciones cinéticas” a la economía rusa: caída del rublo, déficit récord, fuga de capital, dependencia creciente de China. - La lucha entre el tiempo estratégico y el tiempo económico de Putin. Si hay posibilidades reales de un acuerdo… o si asistimos a un simple teatro diplomático. Un programa que conecta guerra, geopolítica y economía, esencial para entender el momento decisivo que vive Eurasia como os cuento en mi libro "UN MUNDO CONVULSO" ** https://amzn.to/44Gy1wn ** SUSCRÍBETE y apoya a Bellumartis Historia Militar: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bellumartis PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/bellumartis Bizum: 656 778 825 Síguenos: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bellumartis_historia_militar X / Twitter: https://twitter.com/BellumartisHM Compra en Amazon con el enlace de BHM y apóyanos: https://amzn.to/3ZXUGQl Libros de Paco firmados y dedicados: https://franciscogarciacampa.com/ #FrenteGeopolítico #Ucrania #Rusia #SancionesCinéticas #EconomíaRusa #Geopolítica #Guerra #Bellumartis #LopeGuerrero

President Trump wants an end to the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians want peace too - but not at any cost. The past week saw the emergence of a leaked US 28 - point- plan which was wholly unacceptable to President Zelensky and European leaders. But how it originated and why it looked like a Russian wish list has led to intense debate. ( It included Ukraine giving up territory it still holds in the east, as well as the area already occupied by Russia, a cap on the Ukrainian army of 600 thousand, a permanent ban on NATO membership for Ukraine and an amnesty on all war crimes. ) Talks hastily took place in Europe and Abu Dhabi and there's now a revised version still to be agreed with Russia. President Zelensky wants to meet President Trump to agree the most sensitive issues.. So why did this latest attempt at peace in Ukraine emerge through a leaked document which many assumed had come straight from Russia? How has Europe and Ukraine responded and could it really mean an end to nearly four years of war?Guests: Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College, London Christopher Miller, Financial Times' Chief Ukraine Correspondent Sir Laurie Bristow, former UK Ambassador to Russia and President of Hughes Hall, Cambridge.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Geopolitics of the Gulf and Eurasia: US-Saudi Relations and China's Global Strategy — Victoria Coates, Vice President, Heritage Foundation — Victoria Coates addresses U.S.-Saudi relations, noting that technology transfer risks from China exist but remain manageable through export-controlled F-35 versions. She argues that Russia is dependent on Beijing in the Ukraine war, which serves China's strategic objective of distracting the West from Indo-Pacific developments. A perceived Russian victory would embolden China toward aggression in East Asia. Coates identifies security guarantees and Saudi openness to the Abraham Accords as key priorities for regional stability.  1922 PEKING

The genome sequences of Neandertals and Denisovans have provided a wealth of new information about the origins, migrations, and interactions of ancient humans. These genomes have revealed that mixture between hominin groups was common: all modern humans outside Africa carry around 2% Neandertal DNA from a single major episode of Neandertal gene flow, while the ancestors of present-day Asians and Oceanians also met and mixed with multiple, genetically distinct Denisovan populations. Archaeological evidence suggests multiple dispersals of modern humans out of Africa, with early fossils identified in East and Southeast Asia over 50 thousand years ago. In contrast, genomic studies indicate that all present-day non-African populations descend primarily from a single dispersal after ~50 ka, though the migration routes of ancestral populations across Eurasia and Oceania remain unclear. Janet Kelso, professor at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, shows how using the distribution of Neandertal and Denisovan ancestry in ancient and present-day modern humans can determine when, where and how often modern and archaic humans met and mixed. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41192]

The genome sequences of Neandertals and Denisovans have provided a wealth of new information about the origins, migrations, and interactions of ancient humans. These genomes have revealed that mixture between hominin groups was common: all modern humans outside Africa carry around 2% Neandertal DNA from a single major episode of Neandertal gene flow, while the ancestors of present-day Asians and Oceanians also met and mixed with multiple, genetically distinct Denisovan populations. Archaeological evidence suggests multiple dispersals of modern humans out of Africa, with early fossils identified in East and Southeast Asia over 50 thousand years ago. In contrast, genomic studies indicate that all present-day non-African populations descend primarily from a single dispersal after ~50 ka, though the migration routes of ancestral populations across Eurasia and Oceania remain unclear. Janet Kelso, professor at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, shows how using the distribution of Neandertal and Denisovan ancestry in ancient and present-day modern humans can determine when, where and how often modern and archaic humans met and mixed. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41192]

The genome sequences of Neandertals and Denisovans have provided a wealth of new information about the origins, migrations, and interactions of ancient humans. These genomes have revealed that mixture between hominin groups was common: all modern humans outside Africa carry around 2% Neandertal DNA from a single major episode of Neandertal gene flow, while the ancestors of present-day Asians and Oceanians also met and mixed with multiple, genetically distinct Denisovan populations. Archaeological evidence suggests multiple dispersals of modern humans out of Africa, with early fossils identified in East and Southeast Asia over 50 thousand years ago. In contrast, genomic studies indicate that all present-day non-African populations descend primarily from a single dispersal after ~50 ka, though the migration routes of ancestral populations across Eurasia and Oceania remain unclear. Janet Kelso, professor at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, shows how using the distribution of Neandertal and Denisovan ancestry in ancient and present-day modern humans can determine when, where and how often modern and archaic humans met and mixed. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41192]

The genome sequences of Neandertals and Denisovans have provided a wealth of new information about the origins, migrations, and interactions of ancient humans. These genomes have revealed that mixture between hominin groups was common: all modern humans outside Africa carry around 2% Neandertal DNA from a single major episode of Neandertal gene flow, while the ancestors of present-day Asians and Oceanians also met and mixed with multiple, genetically distinct Denisovan populations. Archaeological evidence suggests multiple dispersals of modern humans out of Africa, with early fossils identified in East and Southeast Asia over 50 thousand years ago. In contrast, genomic studies indicate that all present-day non-African populations descend primarily from a single dispersal after ~50 ka, though the migration routes of ancestral populations across Eurasia and Oceania remain unclear. Janet Kelso, professor at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, shows how using the distribution of Neandertal and Denisovan ancestry in ancient and present-day modern humans can determine when, where and how often modern and archaic humans met and mixed. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41192]

The genome sequences of Neandertals and Denisovans have provided a wealth of new information about the origins, migrations, and interactions of ancient humans. These genomes have revealed that mixture between hominin groups was common: all modern humans outside Africa carry around 2% Neandertal DNA from a single major episode of Neandertal gene flow, while the ancestors of present-day Asians and Oceanians also met and mixed with multiple, genetically distinct Denisovan populations. Archaeological evidence suggests multiple dispersals of modern humans out of Africa, with early fossils identified in East and Southeast Asia over 50 thousand years ago. In contrast, genomic studies indicate that all present-day non-African populations descend primarily from a single dispersal after ~50 ka, though the migration routes of ancestral populations across Eurasia and Oceania remain unclear. Janet Kelso, professor at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, shows how using the distribution of Neandertal and Denisovan ancestry in ancient and present-day modern humans can determine when, where and how often modern and archaic humans met and mixed. Series: "CARTA - Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny" [Science] [Show ID: 41192]

Timothy Ash, who has been professional economist for more than 30 years, with two thirds of that in the banking industry. Timothy's specialism is emerging European economics, and he writes and blogs extensively on economic challenges for leading publications such as the Kyiv Post, Atlantic Council, the Financial Times, and the United Business Journal. He is also an Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House and has advised various governments on Ukraine-Russia policy and specifically on the impact of sanctions.----------Tetyana Nesterchuk is Barrister and Arbitrator at Fountain Court Chambers. She is a UK expert at the Council of Bars and Law Societies of Europe, and a vocal Ukrainian in London. Nesterchuk is doing everything in her power to aid Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. For Nesterchuk, the war didn't start in 2022. The war began in 2014 when her hometown of Donetsk was overtaken by Russia-backed separatists before eventually being annexed two years ago. Some of her most vital work now centres on the seizure of Russian state assets, the funds from which she hopes can be redistributed to pay for vital services so sorely needed by the embattled Ukrainian population. She acknowledges that she won't be able to save Ukraine alone, but she won't ever stop doing her part to help.----------TETYANA NESTERCHUK LINKS:https://fountaincourt.uk/profile/tetyana-nesterchuk/https://www.linkedin.com/in/tetyana-nesterchuk-a4469a21/https://www.thelawyer.com/microeventpeople/tetyana-nesterchuk/TIMOTHY ASH LINKS:https://timothyash.substack.com/ https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/timothy-ashhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-ash-83a87158/https://cepa.org/author/timothy-ash/----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------DESCRIPTION:Analyzing the Controversial Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan with ExpertsJoin us in this critical discussion with Timothy Ash and Tetyana Nesterchuk as they delve into the recent developments around the so-called peace negotiation process between the US and Russia. The conversation focuses on the controversial peace plan, suspected to be influenced by Moscow, and its potential implications for Ukraine, Europe, and global security. Timothy Ash, an economist with extensive experience in Ukrainian affairs, and Tetyana Nesterchuk, a barrister and expert in European law, provide their insights on the complexities of the plan, the influence of Russian psychological operations, and the broader geopolitical stakes. They also highlight the importance of Europe leveraging frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and push back against conceding to Russian demands. This episode emphasizes the urgent need for a principled stance on international law and the decisive action required from European leaders.----------

On today's Land Warfare program, sponsored by American Rheinmetall, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss Ukraine's fight to defend Pokrovsk as Russian forces increase attacks to take a town seen as key to controlling Donbas; how Moscow is changing tactics to increase battlefield gains, including targeting Ukraine's energy grid; how Ukraine is responding at the tactical level at the front as well as strategically with deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure; Washington's strategy to end the war and how Europe is stepping up; and Moscow finally stands up its unmanned systems force.

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Dr. Wess Mitchell, who serves as cofounder and principal at The Marathon Initiative, and who also served as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs during the first Trump administration. The two discuss Mitchell's brand new book "Great Power Diplomacy: The Skill of Statecraft from Attila the Hun to Kissinger." They discuss the historic scope, perennial meaning, and vital importance of rediscovering the great tradition of statecraft, and deep dive the example of Otto von Bismarck. They also discuss the efforts of the current Trump administration to serve as peacemakers in this era of great power rivalry. You can purchase Great Power Diplomacy from Princeton University Press, or wherever books are sold.Dr. A. Wess Mitchell is a principal and co-founder at The Marathon Initiative, which he created in 2019 with Elbridge Colby. He previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs under the first Trump administration. In this role, he was responsible for diplomatic relations with the 50 countries of Europe and Eurasia and played a principal role in formulating Europe strategy in support of the 2017 National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy.Mitchell is the author of four books, including Great Power Diplomacy: The Skill of Statecraft from Attila the Hun to Kissinger (Princeton Press, 2025), The Grand Strategy of the Habsburg Empire (Princeton Press, 2018), and Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies and the Crisis of American Power (Princeton Press, 2016 – co-authored with Jakub Grygiel). His articles and interviews have appeared in major publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, National Interest and National Review.Prior to the State Department, Mitchell served as President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), which he co-founded in 2005 with Larry Hirsch. In 2020, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appointed Mitchell to co-chair, with former German Minister of Defense Thomas de Maizière, the NATO 2030 Reflection Group, a ten-member consultative body charged with providing recommendations on the future of NATO.Mitchell is a Non-Resident Fellow in the Applied History Project at Harvard University Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center, a member of the International Security and Foreign Policy Grants Advisory Committee at the Smith Richardson Foundation, a member of the International Advisory Council at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics, and a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.Mitchell holds a doctorate in political science from the Otto Suhr Institut für Politikwissenschaft at Freie Universität in Berlin, a master's degree in German and European Studies from Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and a bachelor's degree in history from Texas Tech University. He received a 2020 prize from the Stanton Foundation for writing in Applied History (with Charles Ingrao) and the 2004 Hopper Award at Georgetown University. He is the recipient of the Officer's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland, the Commander's Cross of the Order of Merit of Hungary, and the Gold Medal of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Slovak Republic. He is a sixth-generation Texan. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He has been published in RealClearDefense, and Pacific Forum International's "Issues & Insights", among other publications.  He is the author of Distant Shores on Substack.Guest opinions are their own.All music licensed via UppBeat.

Pr. Timothy McMiller, LCMS Missionary to Eurasia The post The Family of God – Pr. Timothy McMiller, 10/29/25 (3021) first appeared on Issues, Etc..

What does it look like to step into the role of Regional Business Manager in Eurasia? Sean McHugh (LCMS Regional Business Manager for Eurasia) along with his wife Hanna, and Anne Gonzalez (Manager, Lay Missionary Recruitment, LCMS Office of International Mission) join Andy and Sarah to share Sean and Hannah's stories of coming to Lutheranism, how they learned about opportunities to serve as missionaries with the LCMS, their journey to accepting the appointment as Regional Business Manager, what they've found valuable in their training and preparation to deploy in 2026, and what they're looking forward to as they get ready to serve. Learn more about the McHughs and how to support their work at lcms.org/mchugh. Find your opportunity to serve at servenow.lcms.org and lcms.org/careers! As you grab your morning coffee (and pastry, let's be honest), join hosts Andy Bates and Sarah Gulseth as they bring you stories of the intersection of Lutheran life and a secular world. Catch real-life stories of mercy work of the LCMS and partners, updates from missionaries across the ocean, and practical talk about how to live boldly Lutheran. Have a topic you'd like to hear about on The Coffee Hour? Contact us at: listener@kfuo.org.

Timothy Ash, who has been professional economist for more than 30 years, with two thirds of that in the banking industry. Timothy's specialism is emerging European economics, and he writes and blogs extensively on economic challenges for leading publications such as the Kyiv Post, Atlantic Council, the Financial Times, and the United Business Journal. He is also an Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House and has advised various governments on Ukraine-Russia policy and specifically on the impact of sanctions.----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN 10 Events in 10 months - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur first live events this year in Lviv and Kyiv were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run 10 events in 10 months (at a minimum). We may add more venues to the program, depending on the success of the fundraising campaign. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasWe need to scale up our support for Ukraine, and these events are designed to have a major impact. Your support in making it happen is greatly appreciated. All events will be recorded professionally and published for free on the Silicon Curtain channel. Where possible, we will also live-stream events.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------LINKS:https://twitter.com/tasheconhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-ash-83a87158/https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/timothy-ashhttps://cepa.org/author/timothy-ash/----------ARTICLES:https://timothyash.substack.com/ https://kyivindependent.com/author/timothy-ash/----------This is super important. There are so many Battalions in Ukraine, fighting to defend our freedoms, but lack basics such as vehicles. These are destroyed on a regular basis, and lack of transport is costs lives, and Ukrainian territory. Autumn Harvest: Silicon Curtain (Goal€22,000)https://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/autumn-harvest-silicon-curtain----------DESCRIPTIONIn this episode, professional economist Timothy Ash, with over 30 years of experience, particularly in the banking industry and emerging European economies, dives into the effectiveness and implications of recent oil sanctions on Russia. Ash discusses the potential impact of both UK and US sanctions, the secondary sanctions, and the enforcement challenges. He highlights the economic effects on Russia, including the significance of shadow fleets and market reactions. The discussion extends to the broader geopolitical context, including Russian influence, the significance of drone warfare, and the intricacies of defense funding. He also touches upon the moral considerations and the necessity of a defined objective in sanctions policy. Ash emphasizes the importance of maintaining sanctions to reduce Russia's war capabilities, calling for innovative global cooperation and effective enforcement.----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------

On today's Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomic Aeronautical Systems, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses and Dr. Eugene Rumer, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, join Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian to discuss the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin in Budapest and how it will impact the Ukraine war; how Kyiv can continue striking deep into Russia without US Tomahawk cruise missiles; an update on the ongoing ground war; whether Ukraine would be able to supply billions of dollars in military equipment to the United States without undermining its ability to right for its survival; the European consensus that troops in Ukraine will be necessary despite Moscow's opposition to the move; and whether NATO's response to Russia's recent string of provocations is sufficient to keep deterring Moscow.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now passed the three-and-a-half-year mark, and there is still no end in sight. The Trump administration's recent push to negotiate a ceasefire ground to a halt in early September, after Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Vladimir Putin's proposal to meet in Moscow, dismissing the invitation as a sign that his Russian counterpart has no desire to negotiate. Meanwhile, on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russian troops are continuing their offensive in central Donbas. While Ukrainian forces have succeeded in slowing their advance, this has come at the cost of Kyiv's defenses elsewhere, creating vulnerable gaps between frontline positions that Russian forces can slip through. With the front line becoming increasingly fluid and peace talks stalled, Russia has also continued to launch deadly missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, targeting the country's energy grid ahead of the approaching winter months.  By all appearances, Putin believes that if Russia's military keeps pushing forward, it will eventually outlast and overpower Ukraine. But how much longer can the Kremlin sustain its war machine?  In a new report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), senior fellow Maria Snegovaya and Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program director Max Bergmann break down the mounting costs of Russia's war effort and outline four plausible scenarios for the war's next chapter. Dr. Maria Snegovaya joins this episode of The Naked Pravda to discuss their analysis. Time stamps for this episode: (2:05) The current state of the Russia–Ukraine war(4:49) Russia's war strategy and unchanging goals(8:03) How sustainable is this war for the Kremlin?(13:12) How Russia is replenishing its military losses(17:30) Potential scenarios for the war's future(26:55) Strategies for Ukraine and Western alliesКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

HEADLINE: Global Allies Worry About US Division, Adversaries Exploit Weakness GUEST AND TITLE: Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute Director of Eurasia Project; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Ambassador Husain Haqqani states US allies are "very worried" by American internal division and extreme rhetoric, unlike past unity. Bill Roggio notes similar European issues, but the US now seems to lead in domestic disorder. Adversaries like China, Russia, and Islamist extremists exploit this polarization, using social media manipulation and citing Western decline. Both emphasize leaders must reduce aggressive rhetoric, promote bipartisan cooperation, and control social media to heal divisions, advocating for unity to counter external exploitation and domestic radicalization. 1957

HEADLINE: Global Allies Worry About US Division, Adversaries Exploit Weakness GUEST AND TITLE: Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute Director of Eurasia Project; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Ambassador Husain Haqqani states US allies are "very worried" by American internal division and extreme rhetoric, unlike past unity. Bill Roggio notes similar European issues, but the US now seems to lead in domestic disorder. Adversaries like China, Russia, and Islamist extremists exploit this polarization, using social media manipulation and citing Western decline. Both emphasize leaders must reduce aggressive rhetoric, promote bipartisan cooperation, and control social media to heal divisions, advocating for unity to counter external exploitation and domestic radicalization.

BOOK TITLE: The Decisive Decade: American Grand Strategy for Triumph over China AUTHOR: Jonathan DT Ward HEADLINE: China's Response to Geographical Weakness: Expansionism and Global Power Projection China has historically faced geographical weaknesses, lacking natural borders in regions like the Tibetan Plateau, Mongolian and Xinjiang Deserts, and the South China Sea. To address this, China, under Xi Jinping, is converting its global economic power into military power, initially focused on the Indo-Pacific. Their strategy includes the Belt and Road Initiative to consolidate economic geography across Eurasia and Africa, projecting military power globally, which defines an expansionist approach. 1950S PEKING UNIVERSITY

Guest Name: Anatol Lieven • Affiliation: Eurasia Project Director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft • Summary: The conversation critically examines a proposal for a Eurocentric security force in Ukraine, highlighting its practical unfeasibility given European military limitations and domestic fiscal challenges, particularly in France. It suggests the proposal might be political grandstanding or a strategy to "trap" the US. Ukraine's strategy aims to wear Russia down to concede on demands, recognizing they cannot achieve a full military victory. continued 1914 BRUSSELS 

Guest Name: Anatol Lieven • Affiliation: Eurasia Project Director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft • Summary: The conversation critically examines a proposal for a Eurocentric security force in Ukraine, highlighting its practical unfeasibility given European military limitations and domestic fiscal challenges, particularly in France. It suggests the proposal might be political grandstanding or a strategy to "trap" the US. Ukraine's strategy aims to wear Russia down to concede on demands, recognizing they cannot achieve a full military victory. 1914 BRUSSELS