Russia and Eurasia - Audio

Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between. This event is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Russian natural gas exports are once again high on the agenda. Russia is completing two new pipelines to Europe, just inaugurated a new gas pipeline to China, and is boosting its presence in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. All this is happening as the outlook for gas in Europe is being upended by new supplies and routes, by new rules and regulations, and by an ambitious decarbonization agenda that will reshape the role of gas in the European energy system, and thus the relationship with Russia. The Europe-Russia relationship has always had a political and geopolitical dimension, ever since the Soviet Union first supplied gas to Western Europe in the late 1960s. “Yet to boil down the subject of Russian-European gas relations to geopolitics is to miss a large part of the story,” writes Thane Gustafson, a professor of government at Georgetown University and a Senior Director at IHS Markit, in his new book The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe (Harvard University Press, 2020). He continues to say: “The gas revolution in Europe has deep roots, which originated quite independently of Russia, and are only distantly related to geopolitics.” This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.

Three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, many in Washington foresee a new Cold War between the United States and China. The comparison to the U.S.-Soviet confrontation enjoys remarkable currency and durability in contemporary debate. For those who fear worsening relations and an insecurity spiral, the Cold War is a warning. For those more concerned about China’s rising economic and military power, authoritarian system, and global ambitions, it is a rallying cry and textbook for lessons. All acknowledge that the world will not replay the Cold War in all of its specifics, but perhaps the United States is facing a cold war.   Rarely does policy debate include careful historical analysis before deploying history. Is the comparison between the Cold War and today’s US-China competition the right historical prism? What are the similarities between then and now that might yield usable lessons for today’s competition? If it is a bad analogy, then how much damage is it doing to U.S. statecraft? Does the comparison inhibit our ability to understand current dynamics and stymie efforts to develop a better strategy? Are we trapped by the analogy merely because it is familiar? Can we find better historical comparisons that could shed light on today’s U.S.-China dynamics?   What would a Cold War historian say to policymakers if asked to answer these questions? CSIS invites you to join the Project on History and Strategy for a discussion with Dr. Melvyn Leffler, a leading historian of the Cold War, Dr. Francis Gavin, leading historian of nuclear policy and Director of the Henry Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, and Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS. Drawing on decades of scholarship, they will analyze the merits and pitfalls of using the Cold War comparison for China from the historian’s perspective.   This event is made possible through general support from CSIS.

Tatiana Mitrova (Director of the SKOLKOVO Energy Center in Moscow) joins Nikos Tsafos (CSIS Energy Program) to discuss the outlook for the Russian energy sector. They talk about the outlook for oil and gas, the impact of oil prices and of sanctions on the Russian energy economy, and touch on Russia’s perception of climate change.

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with Anthony Bowyer, Programmatic and Research Advisor, Europe and Eurasia at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). They discuss President Mirziyoyev’s reform program in Uzbekistan and how the country has changed, including its parties and elections, and what has remained constant. You can find Anthony Bowyer’s bio here: https://www.ifes.org/people/anthony-bowyer. You can read his paper “Political Reform in Mirziyoyev's Uzbekistan: Elections, Political Parties and Civil Society” here: https://www.silkroadstudies.org/publications/silkroad-papers-and-monographs/item/13284-political-reform-in-mirziyoyevs-uzbekistan-elections-political-parties-and-civil-society.html We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.  

In this episode, Bob and Andrew sit down with Melissa Dalton, deputy director of the CSIS International Security Program and director of the Cooperative Defense Project. Melissa discusses the current situation of the ongoing conflict in Syria and the sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces there, while analyzing Russia's role, potential U.S. strategy, and the state of Turkey's relationship with the U.S. Download the full transcript here.

In this special joint episode of Russian Roulette and Take as Directed, Jeff is joined by J. Stephen Morrison, the Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center, and Judy Twigg, Professor of Political Science at Virginia Commonwealth University and a Senior Associate with the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program. They discuss Stephen and Judy’s recent report “Putin and Global Health: Friend or Foe?” which outlines their recommendations for expanding U.S. engagement to promote health security and counter Russian influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.   The report is available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/putin-and-global-health-friend-or-foe   You can find Stephen Morrison’s bio here: https://www.csis.org/people/j-stephen-morrison and his twitter is @MorrisonCSIS   Judith Twigg’s bio is at: https://politicalscience.vcu.edu/people/faculty/twigg.html, and her twitter handle is @jtwigg9   Consider subscribing to Global Health Center’s podcast Take as Directed at: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/take-directed.   You can also follow the Global Health Center on Twitter: @CSISHealth   We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you!    

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with Hilary Appel, the Podlich Family Professor of Government and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College in California. They discuss her memo “Are Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Partners? Interpreting The Russia-China Rapprochement,” as well as the reinterpretation of Chinese investment as a ‘debt trap.’ You can find Hilary Appel’s bio here: https://www.cmc.edu/academic/faculty/profile/hilary-appel Her memo is here: http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/are-xi-jinping-and-vladimir-putin-partners-interpreting-russia-china-rapprochement The “China’s Rise in Eurasia” event where Dr. Appel discusses her memo is on our website: https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-rise-eurasia Keep an eye out on the PONARS website to read Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick’s memo on the two leaders as well here: http://www.ponarseurasia.org/ We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.  

China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific is discussed often but what about its growing influence in Eurasia? What political and economic roles does China play in the region and what are the implications? Please join CSIS and George Washington University’s Program on New Approaches to Research and Security in Eurasia (PONARS Eurasia) for a two panel event focused on China’s expanding role in Eurasia. Agenda 1:15 pm   Opening Remarks Jeffrey Mankoff, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS 1:30-3:00 pm   Seminar One: The China Factor in EurasiaModeratorJeffrey Mankoff, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS PanelistsHilary Appel, Claremont McKenna College “Are Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Partners? Interpreting The Russia-China Rapprochement”Elizabeth Wishnick, Montclair State University “Putin and Xi: Ice Cream Buddies and Tandem Strongmen”Stephen Kaplan, George Washington University “Chinese and Russian Creditors in Venezuela: Oil Collapse and Political Survival” DiscussantJonathan Hillman, Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS  Coffee Break   3:00-3:15 pm  3:15 to 4:45 pm   Seminar Two: China’s Growing Role in Central Asia and the South CaucasusModeratorHenry Hale, George Washington University PanelistsEric McGlinchey, George Mason University “Questioning Sinophobia in Central Asia”Sebastien Peyrouse, George Washington University  “On the Road to Failure? The Challenges of China’s Soft Power Policy in Central Asia (And Beyond)”Anar Valiyev, ADA University, Baku “Azerbaijan Through The Prism of OBOR: Chinese Interests in the Region” DiscussantMariya Omelicheva, Professor of National Security Strategy, National Defense University This event was made possible through general support to CSIS.  

China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific is discussed often but what about its growing influence in Eurasia? What political and economic roles does China play in the region and what are the implications? Please join CSIS and George Washington University’s Program on New Approaches to Research and Security in Eurasia (PONARS Eurasia) for a two panel event focused on China’s expanding role in Eurasia. Agenda 1:15 pm   Opening Remarks Jeffrey Mankoff, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS 1:30-3:00 pm   Seminar One: The China Factor in EurasiaModeratorJeffrey Mankoff, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS PanelistsHilary Appel, Claremont McKenna College “Are Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Partners? Interpreting The Russia-China Rapprochement”Elizabeth Wishnick, Montclair State University “Putin and Xi: Ice Cream Buddies and Tandem Strongmen”Stephen Kaplan, George Washington University “Chinese and Russian Creditors in Venezuela: Oil Collapse and Political Survival” DiscussantJonathan Hillman, Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS  Coffee Break   3:00-3:15 pm  3:15 to 4:45 pm   Seminar Two: China’s Growing Role in Central Asia and the South CaucasusModeratorHenry Hale, George Washington University PanelistsEric McGlinchey, George Mason University “Questioning Sinophobia in Central Asia”Sebastien Peyrouse, George Washington University  “On the Road to Failure? The Challenges of China’s Soft Power Policy in Central Asia (And Beyond)”Anar Valiyev, ADA University, Baku “Azerbaijan Through The Prism of OBOR: Chinese Interests in the Region” DiscussantMariya Omelicheva, Professor of National Security Strategy, National Defense University This event was made possible through general support to CSIS.  

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director and senior fellow with the Europe Program at CSIS. They discuss the European reaction to the lapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the effect of the demise on NATO’s strategy, and the prospects for the new START agreement. You can find Rachel Ellehuus’s bio here: https://www.csis.org/people/rachel-ellehuus Her recent piece “A NATO Strategy for a Post-INF World” is here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/nato-strategy-post-inf-world We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.  

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with…well, himself, to talk about the Moscow protests and what they may mean for Russia and for the Kremlin. He also answers mailbag questions, including on the differences between U.S. and Russian ideologies and the role of nationality and history in the countries sandwiched between the West and Russia. We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.  

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with Dmitry Suslov, who is Deputy Director, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. They discuss the Trump-Putin meeting in Osaka, strategic stability, competing U.S. and Russian views of international order, and much else besides. You can find Dmitry Suslov’s bio here: https://www.hse.ru/en/org/persons/1165509 You can find the video of his recent public presentation at CSIS here: https://www.csis.org/events/prospects-us-russia-relations-perspective-moscow We want more mail! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

Since the widening of Russia's rift with the West in 2014, relations between Russia and China have entered a new stage, characterized by a more robust political, military and economic cooperation. In spite of a number of problems and asymmetries in bilateral relations, the two states’ interdependence has been growing against the background of mounting tensions with Washington. Are the two countries moving closer to an alliance? What has been the balance between political, military and economic cooperation, and what challenges have emerged? What are the driving factors behind Russia's position on China's Belt and Road Initiative and what is the logic of the Greater Eurasian Partnership? Where do Russia's interests in Asia converge and diverge with those of China and what are the implications? Is there room for U.S.-Russia cooperation in Asia and what would that look like?This event is made possible by Carnegie Corporation of New York.

On April 23, 2019, the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies will be hosting a discussion on pre-existing and emerging threats to U.S. space systems. The event will kickoff with a keynote from Steve Kitay, DASD for Space Policy. Following Mr. Kitay's remarks, an expert panel will discuss recent global counterspace developments. This event highlights the Aerospace Security Project’s new report, Space Threat Assessment 2019, and the Secure World Foundation’s new report, Global Counterspace Capabilities. Following the discussion, please join us for a screening of a new documentary, Commanding Space: The Story Behind the Space Force, produced by the CSIS Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab. To celebrate the launch of both the new report and the documentary, we invite you to stay after the screening for a networking reception.This event is made possible through general support to CSIS. 

“The Kremlin Playbook 2” report demonstrates that some countries facilitate or enable the type of Russian malign economic influence that was uncovered in the first Kremlin Playbook report. On this episode, Heather A. Conley (CSIS), Donatienne Ruy (CSIS), and Martin Vladimirov (Center for the Study of Democracy) take listeners behind the scenes and discuss the creation of The Kremlin Playbook series. They present key takeaways and biggest surprises, the requirements of such a study, and the way forward for this research.

Following decades of confrontation between Washington and Pyongyang, chances for at least a partial normalization appeared to increase last year. However, two summits between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump failed to produce substantive policy changes on either side, and mutual distrust remains high. What are the main factors preventing the two countries from achieving a lasting agreement? Is continued bilateral dialogue useful? What are the positions and goals of the parties concerned? Is normalization U.S.-North Korea relations even possible? What role can third parties, such as China and Russia, play in U.S.-North Korean diplomacy?   Please join us as Anastasia Barannikova, a visiting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS, provides a view from Vladivostok on these questions and others.The Russian Visiting Fellows Program at CSIS is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

At a time of unprecedented tension in U.S.-Russia relations, understanding why the two countries pursue conflicting foreign policies requires not just a close reading of their political institutions and security environments, but of how the two publics perceive each other and the world. Is Russia more or less respected than it was five years ago? Should the U.S. cooperate with or contain Russia? Are sanctions against Russia working? Do Americans want arms control? Is Russia a threat to U.S. national security? Is America the biggest threat posed to Russia? Please join us for a presentation of the findings from a new binational study of American and Russian public opinion conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center. Researchers from the Council and Levada will discuss and provide context for public perceptions of Russia’s return to prominence on the world stage, interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the crisis in Ukraine, and the possibility of a new arms race. This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This episode examines recent developments in Sino-Russian relations and the effects on the United States. Our guest, Mr. Alexander Gabuev, explains the impetus behind the growing geostrategic and military collaborations between China and Russia. He discusses how mutual economic interests and close relations between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have strengthened and diversified the partnership between the two countries. Mr. Gabuev also evaluates critical areas of political and economic friction in the relationship, including the protection of technology and intellectual property, management of influence in Central Asia, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.   Mr. Alexander Gabuev is a senior fellow and the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. He is a Munich Young Leader of the Munich International Security Conference as well as a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (Russia). His research is focused on Russia’s policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China’s relations with its neighbors, especially those in Central Asia.

The collapse of the Soviet Union left Russia encircled by weak states and fractured regions. Some of the divisions around Russia’s periphery are legacies of the Soviet Union and Russian Empire. Others are the result of contemporary political and economic divides. From Balkans to Central Asia and the Middle East, Russia seeks to manipulate these fractures to strengthen its own influence. This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

In recent years Russian influence in Afghanistan has grown. This development is striking, since for three decades after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, Moscow has demonstrated little appetite for involvement or intervention south of the post-Soviet space. What is driving Russia’s return to Afghanistan? What is at stake now for Russia in and around Afghanistan? How does Afghanistan fit into broader Russian foreign policy objectives? Are the United States and Russia moving toward competition or rivalry in and around Afghanistan?   This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

With presidential elections set for the spring, Ukraine’s election season is in full-swing. Candidates from across the political spectrum are running, and, as in many previous Ukrainian elections, the outcome is not foreordained. Will incumbent Petro Poroshenko seek re-election—and if so, does he have a chance of winning? Will Yulia Tymoshenko complete her political renaissance? And what are the implications of the election for Ukraine’s future, including the conflict in the Donbas?This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

This discussion, following the midterm elections, will assess what we saw--and didn't see--in those elections.  It will also examine foreign influence operations that go beyond elections to undermine other democratic institutions, such as our justice system, and democracy itself.   Finally, we will discuss ways to counter this national security threat. This event is made possible with the help of the American Bar Association Committee on Law and National Security and the financial support of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Democracy Fund.

Please join us for the seventh joint conference of CSIS and the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding (CPRDU), entitled, the "Transatlantic Forum on Russia."  Since 2012 CSIS and CPRDU have partnered to examine the impact of Polish-Russian reconciliation and its wider regional and transatlantic implications.  Following Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and military incursions into eastern Ukraine, and its military and covert operations in Syria, Salisbury, and elsewhere, the Forum’s focus has turned to formulating a long-term transatlantic policy framework towards Russia. The Forum convenes five months after the U.S.-Russia Summit in Helsinki, nine days after the U.S. mid-term elections, and four days after President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Putin in Paris on the margins of the centenarian commemoration of the end of the First World War.  Regional and U.S. experts will assess the role that history plays in shaping both Russia’s and the West’s narrative as well as to examine the success that Russian malign influence has had in undermining confidence in democratic institutions and leaders in Europe and the United States. This event is made possible through support from Center for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding.

With reports of food shortages in Turkmenistan and deepening economic troubles in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s economic situation looks increasingly precarious. Please join us to discuss the implications of these economic challenges for the region, the authorities’ response, the impact on ordinary citizens, and the larger geopolitical consequences. This event is made possible through general support from CSIS.

At a time of great global change, European nations, Russia included, are rethinking security institutions and interests, including their relationships with one another and with the United States. At the same time, Russia itself is a crucial factor in its neighbors’ and others’ decision calculus about how security on the European continent might be best attained and preserved. Join us as we bring together some of Russia, Europe, and America’s top analysts to discuss what might happen, and how Russia is likely to affect and be affected by the evolving European security order.This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

CSIS Transnational Threats Project cordially invites you to a book launch event for Director Seth G. Jones’ newly released A Covert Action: Reagan, the CIA, and the Cold War Struggle In Poland. (W. W. Norton & Company)  Moderated byKathleen H. Hicks Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program  WithSeth G. Jones Harold Brown Chair; Director, Transnational Threats Project; and Senior Adviser, International Security Program   December, 1981—the CIA receives word that the Polish government has cut telephone communications with the West and closed the Polish border. The agency’s leaders quickly inform President Ronald Reagan, who is enjoying a serene weekend at Camp David. Within hours, Prime Minister Wojciech Jaruzelski has appeared on Polish national television to announce the establishment of martial law. A new era in Cold War politics has begun: Washington and Moscow are on a collision course. In this gripping narrative history, Seth G. Jones reveals the little-known story of the CIA’s subsequent operations in Poland, which produced a landmark victory for democracy during the Cold War. While the Soviet-backed Polish government worked to crush a budding liberal opposition movement, the CIA began a sophisticated intelligence campaign, code-named QRHELPFUL, that supported dissident groups. The most powerful of these groups was Solidarity, a trade union that swelled to a membership of ten million and became one of the first legitimate anti-Communist opposition movements in Eastern Europe. With President Reagan’s support, the CIA provided money that helped Solidarity print newspapers, broadcast radio programs, and conduct a wide-ranging information warfare campaign against the Soviet-backed government. QRHELPFUL proved vital in establishing a free and democratic Poland. Long overlooked by CIA historians and Reagan biographers, the story of QRHELPFUL features an extraordinary cast of characters—including spymaster Bill Casey, CIA officer Richard Malzahn, Polish-speaking CIA case officer Celia Larkin, Solidarity leader Lech Walesa, and Pope John Paul II. Based on in-depth interviews and recently declassified evidence, A Covert Action celebrates a decisive victory over tyranny for U.S. intelligence behind the Iron Curtain, one that prefigured the Soviet collapse.This event was made possible through support from CSIS.

With the growth of social media, disinformation has become an increasingly potent political tool. State and non-state actors from various countries, among them Russia and China, have become adept at manufacturing and spreading disinformation or using covert campaigns to influence public perception and political outcomes in democratic countries around the world. Responding to this threat requires policy makers to integrate insights from different countries and from academic fields that are too often siloed, including communications, computer science, and social psychology. This event is made possible by the generous support of Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

In this episode, Olga and Jeff sit down with Brian Taylor to talk about his new book, The Code of Putinism. Brian is a professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University and his book provides a framework for thinking about Russian domestic and foreign policy. This podcast is a companion to the book launch CSIS hosted for The Code of Putinism, so we strongly recommend you check out both. The book launch discussion, which also featured Stephen Hanson, Vice Provost for International Affairs at William and Marry College, is available here: https://www.csis.org/events/code-putinism-book-launch-event You can view Brian’s bio and other publications, here: https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/psc/Taylor,_Brian/ If you would like to purchase The Code of Putinism, it is available in many fine bookstores. If you prefer your books delivered to your door, Olya asks that you consider an independent seller: https://www.indiebound.org/book/9780190867324 As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.  

From sanctions to Russian foreign policy strategy to election interference to possible areas of cooperation with the U.S., Olga Oliker, CSIS Senior Adviser and Director of the Russia-Eurasia Program discusses all things Russia.

In this episode, Olya and Jeff sit down with Bill Courtney for a complete tour d’Eurasie. Bill is an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and a former career foreign service officer. He served as ambassador to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and the U.S.-Soviet Bilateral Consultative Commission, and covered Russia and Eurasia on the NSC. We discuss the Russian economy, from taxi drivers and pension reform to sanctions and business conditions, and recent developments in Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Armenia. At 3:34, Olya erroneously states that the minimum retirement age for women in Russia is being raised to 60. It is being raised to 63. At 34:20 Jeff mentions the evolution of the term “Eastern Europe.” For context, we recommend you read Timothy Garten Ash’s article on the topic, here: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1986/10/09/does-central-europe-exist/. You can view Bill’s (illustrious) bio and read his recent publications, here: https://www.rand.org/about/people/c/courtney_william.html. As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

In this episode of Russian Roulette, we sit down with Andrey Baklitskiy. Andrey is a consultant with the PIR Center in Moscow who writes and speaks on arms control and nonproliferation issues. We discuss Russian approaches to nonproliferation, Iran and North Korea, the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and the future of arms control. You can read Andrey’s bio and some of his recent articles here: http://www.pircenter.org/en/experts/25-2147658. Olya and Andrey’s recently coauthored article, “The Nuclear Posture Review and Russian ‘De-Escalation:’ A Dangerous Solution to a Nonexistent Problem,” is available for you to read, here: https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/nuclear-posture-review-russian-de-escalation-dangerous-solution-nonexistent-problem/. We encourage you to read the final report and discussion papers from our U.S.-Russia Crisis Stability dialogue here: https://www.csis.org/programs/russia-and-eurasia-program/us-russia-crisis-stability-results-track-ii-dialogue. You can watch Olya, Andrey, and Sharon Squassoni of George Washington University discuss the results of that dialogue here: https://www.csis.org/events/us-russia-crisis-stability-results-strategic-dialogue. As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

Over the course of the last year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has hosted a strategic dialogue for U.S. and Russian experts focusing on crisis stability. Two workshops brought together Russian and U.S. experts to discuss how the evolution of technology, operational approaches, and policy affect crisis stability, and what steps could be taken to enhance it given the evolving environment. Please join us on June 13, 10:00-11:30AM as Sharon Squassoni, Olga Oliker, and Andrey Baklitskiy discuss the project and what we learned.   The final report summarizing these discussions, “U.S.-Russia Strategic Dialogue on Crisis Stability,” is now published and available, here, as are discussion papers prepared by project participants in support of our efforts.   This project was made possible by support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC).

Please join us for the next installment of the Schieffer Series, Russian Active Measures: Past, Present, and Future. The discussion will focus on U.S.-Russian information warfare and how we can learn lessons from the past.  During the Cold War, the Soviets engaged in a series of “active measures” to influence populations across the globe, including in the United States. In response, the Reagan Administration responded with a combination of overt and covert information operations. This panel will explore lessons from the Reagan Administration and implications for today. Event - 5:30 - 6:30 p.m.Pre-Event Reception - 5:00 - 5:30 p.m. Hosted by CBS News legend and CSIS Trustee Bob Schieffer, the Schieffer Series features thoughtful panel discussions with senior officials, lawmakers, journalists, and policy experts to discuss global challenges and critical issues of national security and foreign policy. Now in its 10th consecutive year, the Schieffer Series is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Bob Schieffer College of Communication at Texas Christian University (TCU) in Fort Worth, Texas.This series is made possible with the generous support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation. For information or inquiries contact externalrelations@csis.org.

The crisis in international dialogue with Russia is particularly acute when it comes to Ukraine, the main locus of the breakdown’s origins. Except for the relatively narrow focus on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, strategic dialogue about the crisis among Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans, and Russians is virtually nonexistent. This breakdown has the potential to be highly destabilizing as mistrust grows and misunderstandings multiply, creating the possibility for the conflict to escalate. To help ameliorate this challenge on the Track II level, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung's Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe brought together a select, high-level group of Russians, Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians – a total of eight participants – to develop four long-term scenarios for Ukraine. The idea was to agree on a range of plausible outcomes of the crisis for Ukraine (in a ten-year time frame) as an analytical, rather than normative exercise. Several of the authors will present the publication that resulted. Julia Gurganus, Visiting Scholar with the Russia and Eurasia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will provide comments. Greg Brown, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, will speak on the report's methodology. Olga Oliker, director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, will moderate. This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

The CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program in cooperation with Eurasia Foundation invite you to join us for the U.S. debut screening of All for One, One for All at CSIS Headquarters.All for One, One for All is a collaborative documentary produced by filmmakers with disabilities from Russia and the U.S. This collection of short films focuses on the daily lives, aspirations, and challenges of people with intellectual and physical disabilities. The film was produced with support from the US Department of State, Mr. Pierre Bastid and Eurasia Foundation. Join us to learn more about this unique project and how the filmmakers are changing the dialogue on disabilities and U.S.-Russian relations. The forty-minute film will be followed by a Q&A featuring one of the film's directors, two-time Academy Award nominee and 16-time national Emmy Award winner Jon Alpert and contributor Jonathan Novick. Novick uses film-making as a tool to offer viewers a look into the daily challenges he faces navigating the world. Olga Oliker, Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS, will moderate.This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Jeff sits down with Aaron Schwartzbaum, the founder and former editor-in-chief of BMB Russia (formerly the Bear Market Brief), a daily news brief and blog covering Russia’s economy, politics, business climate, and political risk environment. They discuss the Russian economy (myths, facts, and mysteries, as well as Russia’s economic outlook), Aaron’s experience starting and running BMB Russia, and how generational differences shape U.S. policy towards Russia. We encourage you to read and sign up for BMB Russia, here: https://bearmarketbrief.com/ You can view Aaron’s bio, here: https://www.fpri.org/contributor/aaron-schwartzbaum/. As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

Russia’s five day war with Georgia in 2008 was victorious, but brought to light a number of inadequacies in Russia’s military forces and capabilities. As a result, the conflict was followed by sweeping reforms and a streak of big-budget military procurements. Since 2015, Russian operations in Syria have served as a public testing ground for the resulting, reformed Russian military. What does Russia’s performance in Syria tell us about the advances that have been made? What specific capabilities has Russia acquired? Which branches of the armed services have benefited the most from reforms and procurement, and where has progress lagged? Can Syria tell us which reforms have been more or less successful? And what does all of this mean for Russia’s strategic balance with NATO? Anton Lavrov, visiting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program, will present his assessment of Syria as a scorecard for the Russian military and its reforms. This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

10:00 – 10:30   Welcoming Remarks: Elisabeth Kvitashvili, President, Georgian Association in the USARedjeb Jordania, Son of the First President of the Georgian Republic Noe JordaniaTina Mikeladze, President, Levan Mikeladze FoundationAmbassador David Bakradze, Ambassador of Georgia to the United States 10:30 – 10:40   Address by Bridget Brink, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State 10:40 – 12:00   Panel 1 – First Republic: Connecting History to Modernity Speakers:Stephen Jones, Professor, Mount Holyoke CollegeBeka Kobakhidze, Visiting Fellow at the Center for Russian and East European Studies, University of Oxford/Associated Professor at GIPAGrigol Gegelia, Doctoral Candidate, European University Institute (EUI), Florence, Italy Discussant: Laura Jewett, Regional Director for Eurasia Programs, NDIModerator:Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director, Russia & Eurasia Program, CSIS 12:05 – 13:00   Lunch Remarks and Introduction:Ambassador Tedo Japaridze, Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister of GeorgiaKeynote Speaker:Hon. Richard Armitage, Former Deputy Secretary of State/Co-Chairman, Supervisory Board, Levan Mikeladze Foundation 13:00 – 14:30   Panel 2 – Georgia’s Evolution, 1991-2018: Internal and External Dynamics Speakers:Ambassador Archil Gegeshidze, Director, Levan Mikeladze FoundationSvante Cornell, Director, Central Asia-Caucasus InstituteLuke Coffey, Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy, Heritage FoundationNino Japaridze, Vice President, Edison ResearchMiriam Lanskoy, Senior Director for Russia and Eurasia, NEDMichael Carpenter, Senior Director, Biden CenterModerator: Olga Oliker, Director, Russia & Eurasia Program, CSIS 14:30 – 14:45   Coffee Break 14:45 – 16:15   Panel 3 – Economic Security of Georgia: Domestic, Regional, Global Perspective Speakers:Mercedes Vera-Martin, Mission Chief for Georgia, IMFAnthony Kim, Editor, Economic Freedom Index, Heritage FoundationJonathan Elkind, Former Assistant Secretary of EnergyGiorgi Tsikolia, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of GeorgiaKenneth Angell, Overseas Private Investment CorporationAnita Baracsi, JSC Bank of GeorgiaModerator: Mamuka Tsereteli, AGBC/CACI/Georgian Association in the USA 16:15 – 16:30   Coffee Break 16:30 – 18:00   Panel 4 – Western Strategies Towards Georgia: 1991-2018 Speakers:Ambassador Kent Brown, Former US Ambassador to GeorgiaAmbassador Kenneth Yalowitz, Former US Ambassador to GeorgiaAmbassador Richard Miles, Former US Ambassador to GeorgiaAmbassador John Tefft, Former US Ambassador to GeorgiaElisabeth Kvitashvili, President, Georgian Association in the USAModerator: Hon. S. Enders Wimbush, Senior Partner, Stratevarious Inc. 6:00   Closing Remarks Tsotne Dadiani, Board Member, Georgian Association in the USA This event is made possible by the generous support of the Levan Mikeladze Foundation and the Georgian Association in the USA.  

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Olya sits down with Leonid Nersisyan, Military Analyst at the REGNUM Information Agency and Editor in Chief of the Moscow-based New Defense Order Strategy magazine. They discuss the state of military analysis in Russia, including Leonid’s experience running a military affairs magazine; the Russian military-industrial complex and how defense contracts work in Russia; some of Russia’s new strategic systems; and the INF treaty and the future of U.S.-Russia arms control. Then, Olya and Jeff sit down for an overdue current affairs segment, where they tackle the latest political developments in Armenia, which has had a very exciting few weeks of protests, culminating in a new Prime Minister. To read some of Leonid’s English-language analysis, check out his National Interest pieces, here: http://nationalinterest.org/profile/leonid-nersisyan. Watch Leonid’s public presentation at CSIS, here: https://www.csis.org/events/putins-new-strategic-systems-plans-realities-and-prospects You can read New Defense Order Strategy, here: http://en.dfnc.ru/ And check out our recent CSIS event on Armenia, here: https://www.csis.org/events/armenias-new-challenges-how-should-west-respond As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

Four years after the U.S. and EU first imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea in March 2014, how effective have these sanctions been in changing the regime’s behavior?   In 2014, Russia experienced a deep recession as global energy prices precipitously dropped. But in 2018, the World Bank projects that Russia will experience GDP growth of around 1.7 percent and the Central Bank of Russia has effectively managed price stability. However, Russia is having to make painful budget choices and turning increasingly to China for infrastructure financing. As Russia continues its military interventions in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, its malign influence operations across Europe and in the United States, and recently deployed a chemical weapon on NATO territory, it appears that four years of Western sanctions has not altered Russian behavior in its neighborhood and beyond. If anything, Russia has used Western sanctions as a domestic policy tool to nationalize industries while retaining access to the Western financial system. This half-day event will explore the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and their impact on Russian foreign and security policy. Please join the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy and the Europe Program on the afternoon of Monday, May 7 for two expert panel discussions exploring the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and its foreign policy, followed by keynote remarks by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD). This event is part of the Simon Chair's Economic Statecraft Speaker Series, a forum to highlight the strategic role of economics in foreign policy and to explore the making of international economic policy. It is made possible by the generous support of Arconic Foundation.AGENDA 12:30pm  Lunch Served 1:00pm  Panel One: Sanctions and the Russian Economy Sergey Aleksashenko Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings and Former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of RussiaElizabeth Rosenberg Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security David MurrayFormer Director of the Office of Illicit Finance, Treasury Department Moderated by:Matthew P. Goodman  U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, Department of State Ambassador Kurt Volker Panel Two: Sanctions and Russian Foreign Policy 2:30pm  William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS Olga OlikerHeather A. Conley Moderated by:Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) Keynote Speech 3:45pm  CSIS Senate Committee on Foreign Relations 

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is a $100 billion multilateral development bank that first opened in 2016. Initiated by China, its membership is global, with regional powers, from Korea to Saudi Arabia, and key players from Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Its arms reach far: in its first two years, it has financed a geographically and sectorally diverse set of projects in Pakistan, Oman, India, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Indonesia. Please join the Simon Chair's Reconnecting Asia Project for a conversation with Natalie Lichtenstein, Chief Counsel for the 57-country negotiations that led to the AIIB's founding and the principal drafter of the Bank's charter, to discuss her new book: A Comparative Guide to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.   This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.

In this episode of Russian Roulette, Olya and Jeff answer the mail! (yes, it has been too long without a mailbag). Then, Olya sits down with Michael Kimmage, a professor of history at Catholic University who from 2014-2016 held the Russia/Ukraine portfolio on the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss Russian literature: the essential works (including those less known in the West); how literature expands and complicates America’s understanding of Russia (and vice versa); film, animation, and Russian normalcy; the role of books and prose in Russian politics and society; and why policymakers in Washington should read Russian literature now more than ever. For more information on Michael and for a list of his publications, click here: https://history.catholic.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-profiles/kimmage-michael/index.html For your reference and reading enjoyment, here are some of the books, poets, films, and animations discussed in the episode: Books and Poets One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn: https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/one-day-in-the-life-of-ivan-denisovich/pics/ The “Silver Age” of Russian poetry, including early works by Anna Akhmatova, https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/anna-akhmatova, and Boris Pasternak, https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/boris-pasternak The Brothers Karamazov, https://www.amazon.com/Brothers-Karamazov-Fyodor-Dostoevsky/dp/0374528373 , and Crime and Punishment, https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2554/2554-h/2554-h.htm, by Fyodor Dostoevsky Life and Fate, by Vasily Grossman: https://www.amazon.com/Life-Fate-Review-Books-Classics/dp/1590172019 The early works of Lyudmila Petrushevskaya: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/310394/there-once-lived-a-girl-who-seduced-her-sisters-husband-and-he-hanged-himself-by-ludmilla-petrushevskaya/9780143121527/ ; https://granta.com/our-circle/ A Journey from St. Petersburg to Moscow, by Aleksander Radishchev: https://www.amazon.com/Journey-Saint-Petersburg-Moscow/dp/0674485505 War and Peace, by Leo Tolstoy: https://www.amazon.com/War-Peace-Translated-Volokhonsky-Classics-ebook/dp/B005JSZJVS Film The Irony of Fate: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073179/plotsummary?ref_=tt_ov_pl Animation Nu, Pogodi! (Just You Wait!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K1j8CoOoks As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that...

In his recent address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin touted a number of new additions to Russia’s strategic weapons arsenal. His list included a nuclear-armed autonomous torpedo, hypersonic glide vehicles, and a nuclear-powered cruise missile. Some of these projects were long in the works, and well-known globally. Others were more of a surprise. What is the status of these systems? How developed are they, and how long until they are fully deployed? What impact will they have on the strategic balance between the United States and Russia? Please join us for a discussion with Leonid Nersisyan on the plans, realities, and prospects of these systems. Michael Kofman, Senior Research Scientist at CNA, will moderate. This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Kyrgyzstan’s former President Almazbek Atambayev is back in politics following his unchallenged appointment as head of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) on March 31. His return to politics comes amid rumors of tensions between him and current President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, his handpicked successor elected just over 100 days ago. In his first comment after the inauguration, the former president suggested that the presence of Jeenbekov’s brother in parliament “doesn't look good.” His comment followed an earlier decision by his top lieutenant, Farid Niyazov, to resign as President Jeenbekov's chief of staff. What is driving the apparent tension between Kyrgyzstan’s current and former presidents? And what does Atambayev's return to active politics mean for the future of the Atambayev-Jeenbekov alliance, the current Kyrgyz government, and Kyrgyzstan's political future? Please join CSIS and RFE/RL for this timely conversation with Venera Djumataeva, Director of RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service.This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

In the spirit of history, Russian literature, and other things the CSIS Russia team holds dear, we bring you a Russian Roulette episode that is both deeply gloomy and highly entertaining. Olya and Jeff sit down with Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, to discuss the state of U.S.-Russia relations, historical cycles in the relationship, signaling, and ways out of the current downward spiral.   Note: this episode was recorded on April 2, before the Trump administration’s April 6 announcement of new sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs, and before reports emerged of a new chemical weapons attack in Syria. (It’s 2018. We can’t keep up. Can anyone?)   To hear more from Matt, check out his bio and recent publications, here: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/matthew-rojansky   As always, keep sending us mailbag questions! If you would like to have your question answered on the podcast, send it to us! Email rep@csis.org and put “Russian Roulette” in the subject line. And, if you have one, include your Twitter handle, so we can notify you publicly when we answer your question (or, if you don’t want us to, tell us that). We look forward to hearing from you.

After ten years of military modernization and defense reform, Russia's military is now a reliable instrument of national power that can be used in a limited context to achieve vital national interests. Russian strategists, concerned about instability along the Russian periphery or an aerospace attack on the Russian heartland, are focused on preserving influence in buffer states and on reinforcing defensive bulwarks. Russian military strategy and operations show an increasing degree of coordination, deception, and simultaneity to achieve objectives quickly while minimizing vulnerabilities. What does the evolution of Russia’s armed forces, its strategy, and the way it uses force tell us about the future? Please join us for a discussion with Scott Boston and Dara Massicot on how current Russian military capabilities have evolved to enable coordinated, multi-domain operations.This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

As its region grows increasingly turbulent, the Republic of Armenia strives to continue the delicate balancing act it has pursued since independence, deepening ties with the West while remaining allied to Russia. Yet shifts in both the domestic and foreign political environments portend new difficulties for Armenia. At home, the move toward a parliamentary system following the controversial December 2015 constitutional referendum has raised concerns about the state of democracy. Meanwhile, the crisis in relations between Russia and the West, coupled with the potential resumption of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which briefly broke into open conflict in the spring of 2016, threatens regional stability. Amid these tectonic shifts, how can Western policy towards Armenia be better calibrated to advance goals of regional peace, security, and development?This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

The collapse of Islamic State control in Syria has been hailed in both Russia and the United States as a victory over terrorism. Both credit their country’s military involvement with victory. But the war that continues in Syria also lays bare Moscow and Washington’s conflicting definitions and approaches when it comes to terrorism, insurgency, and combat operations. Moreover, even if a path to stabilization in that country is found, America and Russia will continue to face terrorism and terrorists at home and abroad. The ways in which these two crucial countries respond as the threat evolves will shape both their own polities and the world as a whole. Please join us on Friday, March 30 for an expert discussion of what we can expect from the end game in Syria and after; emerging trends in terrorism and violent extremism; and the evolution and implications of U.S. and Russian policies and roles. Moderated by Dr. Olga Oliker.  This event is organized in partnership with EastWest Institute.

Over the last three decades, migrants from the Russian North Caucasus have participated in local and global armed conflicts of different varieties. In many cases, they have done so as groups, or networks, representing one or more community. In the 1990s, Circassians fought in the Abkhazian war (1992) and in the first Chechen war (1995), though they withdrew from these conflicts when the struggle for a free Ichkeria turned into an al-Qaeda-branded jihadist movement. More recently, Chechens, Dagestanis and members of other North Caucasian Islamic communities have left in large numbers to fight in Syria—including with the pro-ISIS group Al-Baghdadi and with other anti-Assad forces. Meanwhile, other migrants from the North Caucasus have made many European and Russian cities their homes, while maintaining strong links to their place of origin. What relationship, if any, exists between the networks of Muslims from the North Caucasus that have built peaceful lives around the world and the networks that have facilitated and taken part in armed extremism? What makes some migrants seek violent solutions while others integrate into modern democratic societies? Denis Sokolov, a long-time student of communities and networks from the North Caucasus, will lead a discussion to help understand how these questions might be answered today and in the future. This event is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.