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According to the International Energy Agency, global investment will need to surge to $2 trillion a year within a decade to reach the Paris climate agreement goals. One of the hurdles to financing the green transition in Africa is ballooning debt. A new paper by the Debt Relief for a Green and Inclusive Project shows the region will face debt servicing costs that are roughly the same as their climate financing needs. For more, we spoke to Kevin P. Gallagher of Boston University's Global Development Policy Center.
Today we will be talking about debt swaps and China's role in the global financial landscape, with Rebecca Ray and Blake Alexander Simmons of BU. Although China has only recently become a major creditor, it has already built a strong record of bilateral debt relief and has even begun to advocate for linking actions to promote biodiversity and fighting climate change with international finance and debt relief. Guests: Rebecca Ray is a Senior Academic Researcher at the Global Development Policy Center, at Boston University. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst and an MA in International Development from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University. Since 2013, she has focused on the nexus of international development finance, particularly China's role in reshaping the global financial landscape, and sustainable development, particularly in Latin America. She produces the annual China-Latin America Economic Bulletin series and the China's Overseas Development Finance database. She was lead editor for the books China and Sustainable Development in Latin America: the Social and Environmental Dimension and Development Banks and Sustainability in the Andean Amazon. Blake Alexander Simmons is a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the Global Development Policy Center. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Queensland (Australia) and his M.S. from the University of Antwerp (Belgium). His research focuses on how environmental, political, and psychosocial factors influence conservation decisions in social-ecological systems, and how we can change behaviors to achieve positive outcomes for people and nature. At the GDPC, Blake is investigating the impacts of China's Belt and Road Initiative on biodiversity and indigenous peoples. References: Blake Alexander Simmons, Rebecca Ray, Yang H, Kevin P. Gallagher, "China can help solve the debt and environmental crises," Science (80), 21 January 2021, at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf4049, or https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6528/468. Time stamps for our discussion: 2:33 – How could China use debt for nature swaps and what's the model? 2:50 – China is world's largest low-income bilateral creditor. Countries are struggling to repay given Covid. 4:00 – Relieving a portion of debt in exchange for climate protection. Science paper lists which are best countries for this solution. 4:45 – Three economic trends: capital flight, currency volatility, and drop in trade. All challenge debt repayment and capital investment. If countries can't make repayments anyway, shared goals are a way to renegotiate commitments without default. 6:00 – China has been at the forefront of debt relief for poorest countries. 6:30 – How does this affect China's position as a creditor? 7:00 – China's debt portfolio highly concentrated in a few countries. China has an interest in restructuring with these countries because of the long-term diplomatic and economic relationships—Venezuela as an example. 8:15 – What's the difference of a debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swap? 10:00 – History and examples of debt-for-nature swaps, going back to 1980s and 1990s. WWF pioneered, Ecuador was an early case. Third parties like WWF or the Nature Conservancy would pay for a portion of outstanding debts in exchange for conservation policies. 11:30 – Example of bilateral debt-for-nature swaps. Early cases of debt-for-climate. 12:50 – Example of the Seychelles and the marine protected areas. 14:00 – Nature-performance-linked-bonds. Examples of Ecuador and Argentina proposals. 17:30 – How does enforcement work? Are there standards? 19:00 – Inclusion of local communities in enforcement versus top-down goal-setting and monitoring. 23:00 – Announcements that could come from CBD COP. Discussions with CCICED. 25:30 – Expectations about green finance for nature. 28:00 – Why China still financing coal projects and whether that contradicts the idea of debt-for-climate swaps.
Today, we’re going to be discussing a new report, Green Development Guidance for BRI Projects Baseline Study, published by the BRI International Green Development Coalition (BRIGC) and backed by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. The BRIGC is a joint Chinese and international coalition, and in December last year the coalition began work on the current study, which formulates a classification framework and positive and negative lists for BRI investments. With the team leaders Mr. Erik Solheim, Special Advisor World Resources Institute (WRI) and Ms. Zhou Guomei, Executive Director-General, Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), the report was written by a team of Chinese and international scholars and experts. Our first guest is Dr. Christoph Nedopil Wang, the Founding Director of the Green Belt and Road Initiative Center and a Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF) of the Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE) in Beijing, China. Christoph is a member of the Belt and Road Initiative Green Coalition (BRIGC) of the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Christoph holds a master of engineering from the Technical University Berlin, a master of public administration from Harvard Kennedy School, as well as a PhD in Economics. Our second guest is Wang Ye, Research Analyst in WRI Finance Center. She works to coordinate the work and engage in researches related to promoting sustainability in the financial system in China. Ye holds an Erasmus Mundus Master in Sustainable Territorial Development from the consortium of University of Padova, K.U. Leuven, University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (France) and Dom Bosco Catholic University (Brazil), specializing in Applied Economics. She also holds dual Bachelor degrees in Journalism and International Finance from Beijing Foreign Studies University in China. For further reading: “Green Development Guidance for BRI Projects Baseline Study Report,” BRI International Green Development Coalition, December 2020, at http://en.brigc.net/Reports/Report_Download/202012/P020201201717466274510.pdf. Ma Tianjie, “Advisors propose new system to regulate China’s overseas investments,” China Dialogue, December 4, 2020, at https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/advisors-propose-new-system-to-regulate-chinas-overseas-investments/. Lihuan Zhou, Sean Gilbert, Ye Wang, Miquel Muñoz Cabré and Kevin P. Gallagher, “Moving the Green Belt and Road Initiative: From Words to Actions,” World Resources Institute, November 2018, at https://www.wri.org/publication/moving-green-belt-and-road-initiative-from-words-to-actions
China was instrumental in helping Latin America weather the last global financial crisis. Can it do so again? The coming recession could offer the superpower a new opportunity to build influence in Latin America. But this isn't 2008, says China-Latin America expert Margaret Myers, and the regional relationship is a lot more complicated. Myers joined AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter to discuss what China wants in Latin America, and what the pandemic changes. Guests: Margaret Myers is the director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly Background reading: "Could China Be a White Knight Again for Latin America?" by Margaret Myers and Kevin P. Gallagher (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/could-china-be-white-knight-again-latin-america) "The Reasons for China's Cooling Interest in Latin America" by Margaret Myers (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/how-beijing-sees-it)
Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher is an associate professor of international relations at Boston University, where he directs the Global Development Policy Program. He is also senior researcher at the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University. Professor Gallagher is the author of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization, with Roberto Porzecanski (Stanford University Press, 2010); The Enclave Economy: Foreign Investment and Sustainable Development in Mexico's Silicon Valley, with Lyuba Zarsky (MIT Press, 2007); Free Trade and the Environment: Mexico, NAFTA, and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2004); and editor of Putting Development First: The Importance of Policy Space in the WTO and IFIs (Zed Books, 2005). He has served as visiting or adjunct professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government; El Colegio de Mexico in Mexico, and Tsinghua University in China. He currently serves on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State's of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy, and the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Advisory Committee for Mexico. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.
Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher is an associate professor of international relations at Boston University, where he directs the Global Development Policy Program. He is also senior researcher at the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University. Professor Gallagher is the author of The Dragon in the Room: China and the Future of Latin American Industrialization, with Roberto Porzecanski (Stanford University Press, 2010); The Enclave Economy: Foreign Investment and Sustainable Development in Mexico's Silicon Valley, with Lyuba Zarsky (MIT Press, 2007); Free Trade and the Environment: Mexico, NAFTA, and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2004); and editor of Putting Development First: The Importance of Policy Space in the WTO and IFIs (Zed Books, 2005). He has served as visiting or adjunct professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government; El Colegio de Mexico in Mexico, and Tsinghua University in China. He currently serves on the investment subcommittee of the US Department of State's of the Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy, and the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Advisory Committee for Mexico. Professor Gallagher writes regular columns on global economic and development policy for The Guardian, Financial Times, and POLITICO.