Podcasts about Nafta

Is AI the next great labor shock — and are we about to repeat the mistakes of NAFTA? Aaron Renn talks with Brent Orrell, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, about what AI is already doing to the workforce, why this time the disruption is hitting knowledge workers first, and why human formation may be the most valuable asset in an AI-infused world.Brent Orrell studies the future of work and AI at AEI and previously served for years at the U.S. Department of Labor. He is launching a National Commission on AI and the Future of the American Workforce.CHAPTERS:(00:00 Introduction)(00:55 Why AI Is the New NAFTA)(04:30 A National Commission on AI and Work)(07:30 The Labor Effects Already Happening)(12:20 How "Learn to Code" Became a Trap)(17:00 Adaptation: The Core Skill for the AI Era)(24:00 Why Human Formation Matters More Than Ever)(40:00 The Coming White-Collar Political Disruption)BRENT ORELL LINKS:

Host: Lalo Solorzano and Trudy Wilson Guest(s): N/A Published: May 27, 2026 Length: 16:11 Presented by: Global Training Center Summary In this episode of Simply Trade, Lalo Solorzano and Trudy Wilson continue the Trudy's Trade Tips series with another practical discussion on USMCA. This time, the focus is on documentation, certification requirements, and why tariff classification is the foundation for making accurate free trade agreement claims. Trudy explains one of the biggest changes from NAFTA to USMCA: the old formal certificate of origin is gone. Instead, companies must ensure their USMCA certification contains the required minimum data elements, regardless of the format used. That flexibility can be helpful, but it also creates room for confusion when documents are unclear or incomplete. The conversation also highlights the importance of identifying the certifier, exporter, producer, and importer, along with product descriptions, classifications, origin criteria, blanket periods, and certification statements. Trudy and Lalo then explain why tariff classification must come before USMCA qualification. If a company does not understand the classification of the finished product and its components, it cannot properly apply USMCA rules of origin. This episode matters because USMCA savings are valuable, but only when claims are documented, supported, and correctly qualified. Main Topic / Discussion This episode focuses on the documentation requirements for USMCA and the importance of tariff classification in determining whether goods qualify under the agreement. Trudy explains that USMCA no longer requires the old NAFTA certificate format. Instead, companies must provide the required minimum data elements in whatever format they choose. This includes identifying the certifier, exporter, producer, and importer, along with the product description, tariff classification, origin criterion, blanket period, authorized signature, date, and certification statement. A key point is that documentation must be clear. If a shipment includes both USMCA-qualifying goods and non-qualifying goods, the paperwork must clearly identify which items qualify. Mixing unclear origin declarations with USMCA claims can create confusion and risk. The discussion then shifts to tariff classification. Lalo and Trudy emphasize that “all roads lead to the HTS.” USMCA qualification depends on understanding the classification of the finished product and the classifications of the components, parts, or ingredients used to make it. Without that foundation, companies cannot properly apply product-specific rules or determine whether a tariff shift has occurred. Key Takeaways • USMCA does not require the old NAFTA certificate form, but it does require specific minimum data elements. • Companies may use their own format for USMCA certification as long as the required information is included. • The certifier, exporter, producer, and importer must be clearly identified with the required contact details. • Documentation must clearly show which goods qualify for USMCA and which do not. • Tariff classification is the foundation for USMCA qualification. • Companies must know the classification of the finished good and the components used to make it. • Product-specific rules under USMCA depend on classification and often require analyzing tariff shifts. • Lalo and Trudy recommend understanding tariff classification before taking on USMCA qualification work. Resources & Mentions • Global Training Center • TruTrade Solutions • Lalo Solorzano on LinkedIn • Trudy Wilson on LinkedIn Credits Host: Lalo Solorzano – LinkedIn Trudy Wilson – LinkedIn Guest(s): N/A Producer: Lalo Solorzano

The rise of the far right is the defining political crisis of our time. But are we analyzing it correctly? Suzi speaks with David Ost about his book Red Pill Politics: Demystifying the Far Right from Fascism to Right-Wing Populism. David argues that by focusing on whether Trump, Orban, or Netanyahu is or isn't a fascist, we're missing the deeper question: what political species do fascism and right-wing populism share? And what does understanding that species tell us about why the left keeps losing workers it once counted as its core constituency? It's a sweeping comparative political analysis that argues fascism and today's right-wing populism are not separate phenomena but two expressions of the same underlying political species, that of the Red Pill (a loose acronym of Right-wing, Exclusionary Nationalist-Democratic, Populist Illiberalism). From the Boulanger Affair in 1880s France to Tucker Carlson, from Mussolini's syndicalist unions to Orban's welfare chauvinism, the radical right has won by offering workers something — economic recognition, belonging, enemies to hate — that the neoliberal center-left abandoned along with NAFTA and the Third Way. David ends with a diagnosis of the left's own failures and a prescription for what it would take to turn things around. Jacobin Radio with Suzi Weissman features conversations with leading thinkers and activists, with a focus on labor, the economy, and protest movements.

La Mesa 2 - Lunes 25.06.26 - Unión de Vendedores de Nafta pide revisar incentivos by En Perspectiva

Chris Paul is joined by his good friend Josh Capps, a literature professor and screenwriter from Louisiana, sitting in for Burning Bright. The two break down Warren Beatty's 1998 political satire Bulworth, which Beatty wrote, directed, and starred in opposite Halle Berry, Oliver Platt, Don Cheadle, Isaiah Washington, and a nearly silent Sean Astin. Josh argues the film sits on a fascinating cultural crux point. He thinks 1998 was the pivot year when Hollywood shifted toward heavy programming, citing The Truman Show, Deep Impact, Armageddon, and The Siege all landing in the same window. The guys dig into Bulworth's opening confession that political assassinations are just a normal Tuesday for a senator with a fixer on speed dial, the eerie parallel between Bulworth dropping the mask once he had a hit out on himself and the way Trump later dispensed with the political pretense entirely, and Aaron Sorkin's fingerprints on the worst Halle Berry monologues about NAFTA and manufacturing. They also wander through the rise of West Coast rap as a marketing tool aimed at young kids, Public Enemy's 1994 song calling out a fake World Health Organization pandemic, the hierarchy of corporate political influence, and the difference between memory and story.

Recorded live at the Morgan Stanley and MUFG Japan Summit, our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter led a discussion on Asia's exposure to the energy shock and Japan's bullish outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And on today's episode, we're bringing you a live taping direct from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit to discuss the macroeconomic overlook. And, in particular, Japan's moment: reflation, reform, and the case for a structural re-rating. I am joined by Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist; Takeshi Yamaguchi, our Chief Japan Economist; Jonathan Garner, our Chief Asia and EM Equity Strategist; Koichi Sugisaki, who is our Head of Japan Macro Strategy; and Sho Nakazawa, who is our Japan Equity Strategist. Seth Carpenter: I will say we have just collectively published our mid-year outlook. So twice a year, Morgan Stanley Macro Research puts together our forecast. We take the time to debate with each other, to pressure test our views on the outlook for the next year and a half to two years. And I have to say this version of the outlook process may have been the most difficult one that I can remember. And in no small part because one of the key fundamental drivers of the outlook globally for growth, for inflation is oil, oil prices. And the swings there have been pretty dramatic. And so, as a result, we put a lot of effort into not just our baseline forecast, but also scenarios and the ways in which our baseline forecast could be wrong. But Chetan, let me start with you. Tell us a little bit about the exposure in Asia to, to the energy shock. Chetan Ahya: So Seth, you're right. Asia is one of the more exposed part of the world. But I would say that we've been surprised in the way this energy shock has been managed. One is, of course, at the global level, two big swings happened. US exports increased dramatically by 3.8 million barrels per day. Just to give you perspective, global consumption of oil is about 100 million barrels, so it's simple math in terms of how big this number was. And then China parallelly also reduced its imports by 3.5 million barrels. So, we had a 7 million barrel swing from a global oil demand balance perspective.And, secondly, as far as gas is concerned, that is where actually we were more concerned about Asia because Asia was very dependent on Middle Eastern gas. And on that front, China single-handedly has bailed out the region. So, China cut its gas imports by about 45 percent, and that had at least avoided the shortages that we were worried about. We can manage oil prices, but shortages is something very difficult to manage. So that's at the global level. And within the region, what every economy did is to switch to an alternative source of fuel, whether it is electricity generated through coal or other renewable sources. And particularly that happened in China and India, which are the two big importers of fuel in the region.And then additionally, what we also saw is that everybody managed the fuel price increase quite well. So, on an average, if I look at the stats as of today, only about 25 to 30 percent of the underlying fuel price increase has been passed on to the consumer. So, the governments are taking it, so there is a burden on the fiscal front that is building up. But as far as the consumers are concerned, this has been a help, and therefore you have not seen a big spike in inflation across the region. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So, a lot of comments about Asia in general. Let's go more specific to here in Japan. And so, Yamaguchi-san, you were an early adopter of the Japan reflation view. If we go back a year, two years, three years, you were probably more optimistic, more bullish about growth in the market than consensus. More recently, you've been a little bit more cautious about where growth is going. And so, can you tell us a little bit first why you're a bit more cautious now relative to where I suspect the market is? And then when it comes to the energy shock, how do you see it playing out with the Japanese economy? And should we worry about it derailing this whole reflation trade? Takeshi Yamaguchi: We think Japanese underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that, you know, nominal GDP recovery will continue as a trend. But for this year, I think there's a, you know, short-term slowdown, both in terms of real GDP growth and nominal GDP growth, due to the terms of a trade shock. So far, you know, thanks to the government energy subsidies and Japan's relatively large strategic oil reserves, the direct impact on households has been limited. But we are already seeing a big increase in producer prices in the April data. It jumped to 4.9 percent {year-over-year], and we expect this producer price index will continue to go up due to the higher oil prices, but also because of the NAFTA-related supply side, you know, disruptions in areas, you know, such as, you know, construction materials, plastic products, and industrial solvents and so on. That said, we still believe that, you know, underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that there's a structural labor shortage. So, wage growth may somewhat slow, but still I think a solid, you know, base up increase will continue next year, especially among young workers. Also, I think this structural tight labor market [is] encouraging companies to step up labor-saving investment. And, I think, together with government's initiatives for domestic investment, I think, domestic CapEx will also likely remain resilient. So, this year for nominal GDP growth, we expect, you know, slightly negative growth due to the terms of trade loss. But the next year, we are expecting above 4 percent nominal GDP growth. So, the overall, you know, story remains unchanged despite the short-term headwinds. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So fundamental story remains unchanged. We're pretty optimistic, but it's a matter of long term versus short term Jonathan, let me turn to you. Equity markets are generally optimistic, I would say, these days, but there is a bit of a divergence between views on equities here in Asia, between Japan on the one hand, and EM overall. In the mid-year outlook, you have expressed a preference for Japanese equities over EM. Can you talk a little bit about that view? Why that preference? Are there sectors or specific stocks that matter more? How are you thinking about this sort of allocation across equity markets for you in Asia? Jonathan Garner: So, certainly, as Seth indicated and Chetan and Yamaguchi-san said, it's really an environment where the sector call, particularly the CapEx, super cycle call should drive portfolios. And that naturally leads you in Asia more to North Asia, where Japan is very richly endowed in beneficiaries of the CapEx super cycle. And obviously markets like Korea and Taiwan, and much less so to South Asia, where the larger markets are much more populated by consumer and services stocks. So, in our portfolio, we're essentially overweight capital spending, underweight the consumer. And when you look at the Japan market, one of the things that my colleague Daniel Blake has done a lot of work is, is the sort of thematic exposures that exist within our coverage. The four core Morgan Stanley research themes of multipolar world, AI, tech diffusion, future of energy and societal shifts, they map into about 75 percent by stock number of our coverage for the Japan market, and they're quite nicely distributed across the stock coverage. Obviously, some stocks have more than one aspect to them. And that is highly advantageous and much more advantageous than in fact any other large market. Europe of course, doesn't have AI, tech diffusion, or it largely lacks the beneficiaries, the upstream beneficiaries. The US has legacy, sort of, software service, business models and consumer exposure. Now, it's not to say that all is sort of rosy in the garden. There are large auto OEMs here in Japan where the earnings numbers are challenged. So, it's all about the kind of the dispersion that's going on within the portfolio. But just on the base case targets, 4300 for topics, that's set by Nakazawa-san and myself. It's about 12 percent upside in the base. In the two weeks since we published the report, EM has fallen back somewhat, so there's about 8 percent upside to our EM target. But on a kind of risk-adjusted bull-bear skew, bear in mind that EM is much more skewed in terms of the earnings drivers of that market. Essentially, if you strip Korea and Taiwan out, there's no earnings growth in EM right now. You would ultimately have to favor Japan. So, Japan should be at the core of any Asia portfolio at the moment. Seth Carpenter: And can you just give us a little insight as to what you're seeing about how the market is or maybe is not pricing the threat from the energy shock? What are you seeing in equity markets, top line, down into sectors? Do you think there's enough concern? Do you think there's room for that to get, sort of, rerated just on the energy shock situation? Jonathan Garner: So, what you're seeing is that anything that is consumer-related is really struggling in terms of revisions. I think there are six different subcomponents of the consumer that we can track. Every single one of them has downgrades. And the upgrades are in energy, upstream energy, which isn't that well represented in Japan. There are a couple of names. In materials, really across the board. In semis and IT across the board, and broadly, tech hardware. And then in the defense capital goods space. And that dispersion in revisions within the Japan market or within Asia as a whole is something that I've never seen before.It does maybe to some extent question the resilience of the consumer in terms of the way that the numbers are being downgraded. So, I'll just leave that hanging a little bit. Seth Carpenter: Alright, thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much everybody. Voice: That was Part 1 of a special two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit. Join us tomorrow for Part 2 of the conversation.

Les Leopold's new book, “The Billionaires Have Two Parties – We Need a Party of Our Own,” starts from a simple claim: Republicans and Democrats alike have become instruments of the billionaire class, while working people are left with no real political home. On Coming From Left Field, Leopold walks through the economic history behind that argument, from deindustrialization and NAFTA to Wall Street's “financial strip mining” of communities through mass layoffs and stock buybacks. He highlights places like Mingo County, West Virginia—once a New Deal Democratic and union stronghold—where coal jobs collapsed, no serious public reconstruction ever arrived, and the opioid industry filled the vacuum as the only growth sector. In county after county across the Rust Belt and Appalachia, he and his co‑researchers found that rising mass layoffs map onto falling Democratic vote share; voters blame the party that was supposed to fight for them, not because of “wokeness,” but because Democrats abandoned New Deal‑style job guarantees and embraced a corporate‑first politics. The heart of Leopold's case, though, is that ordinary people are far readier for a bold working‑class program than the political class believes. In a 3,000‑person survey in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he tested a fictional “Independent Workers Political Association” with a radical platform: a right to a job at a living wage (with the public sector stepping in if the private sector fails), a ban on compulsory layoffs at firms receiving government money, a genuinely livable minimum wage, and strong action against price‑gouging by pharmaceutical and food corporations. He expected fringe support; instead, 57% of voters backed the idea, only 18% opposed it, support was consistent across all four states, 40% of Trump voters said yes, and 70% of voters under 30 were on board. The same survey showed the Democratic label itself has become a liability: for identical populist platforms, “independent” candidates started about eight points ahead of “Democrats,” and in Ohio, the penalty for the Democratic label rose to roughly sixteen points. For Leopold, the implication is clear: you cannot build a serious working‑class politics by trying to be “better Democrats” everywhere. Instead, his book calls for building a new “party of our own” from the ground up in deep‑red areas where Democrats barely exist—running independent working‑class candidates, pushing ballot initiatives like banning forced layoffs at firms on the public dime, and using labor‑rooted political education to turn widespread anger and insecurity into a coherent, independent working‑class movement.   About Les Leopold Les Leopold is a longtime labor educator, author, and co‑founder of the Labor Institute, which has been training workers and union activists on economic and environmental issues since the 1970s. Raised in a working‑class family of war refugees, he studied at Oberlin College and earned a master's degree in public affairs from Princeton before working closely with visionary labor leader Tony Mazzocchi, a pioneer of the occupational safety movement and an early advocate of a Labor Party. Leopold is the author of several books, including “Runaway Inequality,” “How to Make a Million Dollars an Hour,” “Wall Street's War on Workers,” and a biography of Mazzocchi, “The Man Who Hated Work and Loved Labor.” His work combines data‑driven political economy with on‑the‑ground organizing, aimed at helping working people. Order the book: https://www.amazon.com/Billionaires-Have-Parties-Need-Party/dp/B0GX77LK8B/ Website: The Labor Institute Substack: https://lesleopold.substack.com/p/the-billionaires-have-two-parties-f10 Greg's Blog: http://zzs-blg.blogspot.com/ Pat's Substack: https://patcummings.substack.com/  #LesLeopold#TheBillionairesHaveTwoParties#partyofourown#workingclasspolitics#laborpolitics#thirdpartymovement#independentworkingclassparty#deindustrialization#RustBeltworkers#MingoCountyWestVirginia#financialstripmining#stockbuybacks#guaranteedjobs#livingwagejobs#nocompulsorylayoffs#TonyMazzocchi#LaborPartyhistory#politicalrealignment#rightwingpopulism#economicinequality#workingclassvoters#newworkersparty#PatCummings#PatrickCummings#GregGodels#ZZBlog#ComingFromLeftField#Podcast#zzblog#mltoday

15/5 Seconda giornata di Vertice Trump-XI. Bene la collaborazione ma il mercato voleva progressi immediati su Iran. I mercati asiatici virano quando Trump dice che agli Usa non serve riaprire Hormuz “serve più a loro che a noi” poi ritratta: siamo d'accodo su riapertura stretto e no al nucleare iraniano. XI inauguriamo una nuova relazione tra le parti nel segno di una costruttiva stabilità strategica. Torna allarme inflazione: Treasury sopra il 4,5%, due anni al 4%. Petrolio risale, Brent a 107$. Trump: la Cina comprerà greggio da noi per soddisfare la sua “fame insaziabile”. Futures in rosso dopo che Greer ha detto che chip non sono stati questione centrale delle discussioni.  GS: record guidato dal settore retail. Analisi: la bolla di allora e di oggi. Il portafoglio di Trump fa discutere, acquisti sul Tech dopo il ribasso di marzo. Cerebras, lpo dell'anno +70% al debutto. SPaceX più vicina, settimana prossima il prospetto. Anthropic i dettagli del funding da 30 miliardi: valutazione a 900 miliardi di dollari. OpenAi contro Apple, possibile azione legale. *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia in rosso, pausa al rally del Tech. Nikkei -1,5%, Kospi cede il 5%. Takaichi oggi call con Trump. Giappone: prezzi all'ingrosso +2,3% al mese, maggior crescita da tre anni. Nafta +79%. BOJ verso rialzo a giugno. Decennale nuovo massimo al 2,72%, yen in ritirata. In Europa futures in rosso. Attesa inflazione in Italia e bollettino economico Bce. Decisioni su rating di Germania, Grecia e Portogallo. Il monito di Draghi, le sfide a Keir Starmer. Focus su Ferragamo, Webuild, Telecom Italia e conti di Unipol  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Resumen de noticias de LA NACION de la mañana del 14 de mayo de 2026

Joe Galarza is a Los Angeles-based muralist, musician, and community educator whose practice engages Indigenous identity, political resistance, and the social role of art. Introduced through the East L.A. punk scene, Galarza traces his early influences from heavy metal illustration to anarchist thought, and later to Indigenous-led movements shaped by land struggles, NAFTA-era organizing, and Zapatista philosophy. The conversation examines art as a tool for education and collective questioning, with Galarza reflecting on his work with incarcerated youth, mural practices that preserve oral histories, and the persistence of colonial structures in contemporary life. Throughout, he situates his work within a broader commitment to community, emphasizing the responsibility of artists to engage with systemic injustice while remaining accountable to the histories and territories they inhabit.    

La justicia local avanzó en la investigación por el incendio intencional de un automóvil Audi TT, un hecho que conmocionó a la comunidad semanas atrás. Tras una serie de procedimientos, la policía logró detener al segundo sospechoso del ataque, por lo que los dos presuntos autores ya se encuentran a disposición de las autoridades.En diálogo con el fiscal a cargo de la causa, Dr. Luciano Rebechi, confirmó que ambos imputados son personas mayores de edad, cuentan con antecedentes judiciales previos y ya fueron formalizados. Además, el juez interviniente dictó para ambos la prisión preventiva por el plazo de un mes.El hecho investigado ocurrió el pasado 12 de marzo. A partir de ese momento, el personal de la Comisaría Segunda inició una minuciosa investigación que incluyó el análisis de registros fílmicos. Según detalló el fiscal, " las pruebas recolectadas hasta el momento comprometen seriamente a los sospechosos, ya que se logró realizar un seguimiento completo de sus movimientos. Las cámaras registraron el momento en que los acusados compraron nafta en un bidón, su posterior traslado en motocicleta hacia la vivienda donde estaba el auto y el instante en que se originó el fuego. En el registro se observa que uno de ellos conducía el ciclomotor mientras que el acompañante descendió para provocar el siniestro". La moto utilizada en el hecho ya fue secuestrada por la policía.

Kenny and Mike are joined by director Theo Avgerinos and cast / contributor Rev. Dr. Jason Coker for a discussion of Rising Hope, a documentary film about the struggles and hope exerpienced by the residents of several towns in the Mississippi Delta. The film examines the rich history, decline, struggles that depleated the area of it's wealth and many of its residents, but not the hope of those who are determined and build a new narrative for the region and people.  The film does not shy away from many of the causes of the regions decline including systematic racism and well as the effects of the NAFTA trade agreement. Faith Issues: Faith and hope are interwoven throughout the film and history of the region. In depicting the deternimation, courage and faith of residents the film can inspire others facing difficulties to not be defined by what is lacking but by what is present and the possibilities that grow out of determination, community and working together. Rising Hope echos the teaching in Hebrews 11 that faith is the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen. 

Pozornost Donalda Trumpa se stále intenzivněji zabývá zeměmi Latinské Ameriky. Na začátku roku unesl venezuelského prezidenta Nicolase Madura a zostřil blokádu Kuby. Tyto a další kroky vůči Venezuele, Kubě či Mexiku připomínají starší intervenční logiku, v níž Spojené státy považovaly západní polokouli za svůj prostor bezpečnostního a politického vlivu. Srovnání s minulostí nabízí například případ panamského vůdce Manuela Noriegy, ale i takzvané banánové války nebo studenoválečné zásahy v regionu. Trump tuto tradici přetváří po svém, když kombinuje tvrdou rétoriku, sociální sítě, důraz na migraci, bezpečnost a zároveň podporuje pravicové populisty v regionu. V novém dílu podcastu Dějiny bez konce jsme se zaměřili na historii vztahů USA a zemí Latinské Ameriky. Na rozhovor jsme si pozvali amerikanistu a historika Lukáše Perutku, který se specializuje především na dějiny Mexika. Perutka tak například připomíná, že Mexiko dokázalo v minulosti Washingtonu vzdorovat, vyjednávat i prosazovat vlastní zájmy jako tomu bylo například při vstupu do NAFTA. Zároveň ale nese historickou zkušenost americké expanze, mexicko-americké války, ztráty rozsáhlých území, intervencí z počátku 20. století i války proti drogám. Právě drogová politika USA podle Perutky často problémy spíše prohlubovala. Kartely se navíc dávno nezabývají jen drogami, ale pronikly do obchodu s potravinami, alkoholem, lidmi i dalšími komoditami. Podcast se dotýká také migrace a toho, jak Trumpova administrativa využívá ozbrojené složky a úřad ICE. Perutka upozorňuje, že hon na lidi s migračním pozadím nemá v amerických dějinách mnoho přímých paralel, i když Spojené státy v minulosti opakovaně nasazovaly armádu či federální moc proti vlastnímu obyvatelstvu – od občanské války přes zásahy proti veteránům Bonus Army až po potlačování stávek. V závěru rozhovoru se debata přesouvá i k Arktidě a Trumpovu zájmu o Grónsko. Ani ten není podle Perutky úplně nový. Spojené státy uvažovaly o odkupu Grónska už v 19. století a znovu po druhé světové válce. Rozdíl je hlavně ve stylu. Zatímco dřívější prezidenti podobné otázky řešili diskrétně a multilaterálně, Trump z nich dělá veřejnou politickou show. Playlist:

Despite the historical energy disruption from the Iran conflict, stocks are back to record highs. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats discuss different views and fundamentals driving markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today: oil, oil inventories, and the price at the pump.It's Wednesday, May 6th, at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you. We remain in this very unique market where on the one hand, the energy market is severely disrupted. On the other hand, we're making new all-time highs in the stock market. And part of this debate is a creeping sense that maybe the energy market is just a lot more resilient than many people initially thought.So, let's just jump right into it. As you look at the current state of the world, the state of things, how are you seeing the energy market at the moment?Martijn Rats: There are definitely two views in the market. I would say commodity specialists, oil traders, people that trade oil and gas equities for a living, tend to focus on the size of the supply shock. And it is neither hyperbole nor disputed that the size of the supply shock is the largest in the history of the oil market. We have the statistical data to back that up. That is not a controversial statement.But at the same time, the other view in the market, generally held by your generalist investors who invest across many markets. They tend to focus on the likelihood or possibility that this supply shock might also be uniquely short. It was there all of a sudden, from one day to the next, the strait was closed. It felt a bit man-made, so to say. It was an outcome of a political decision, and that can also be undecided. And so, this is – the to-ing and fro-ing in the market is; on the one hand, this shock is very, very large. But the other hand it may also be very, very short.Now we went into this supply shock, arguably well-prepared. In the sense that during the course of like late 2024, all of 2025, and the very early part of 2026, we were telling a story of oversupply surplus. And on top of that, given the military buildup was going on in January and February, a lot of countries in the Arabian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait – visibly put out a lot of oil at sea.So, in the oversupply of 2025, we put oil in storage in lots of places that we can't always see. But that seems very likely. Oil in the water was very, very high. So, we have been living off these buffers, and that has helped. And then, yeah, at any point in time, there were good enough reasons to assume that on a timeframe of a couple of weeks, this would largely be resolved. We would eat into these buffers, draw some inventory.And it has been hard for the market then to really capitalize the size of the supply shock and say, "Yeah, really oil prices need to spike very, very high." And in that sense, we're left with this significant supply shock, but we haven't taken out the highs that we saw in 2022, for example.Andrew Sheets: So maybe a way to think about this, right, is that if we imagined all of that oil as sitting in a big tank. We've kind of stopped a lot of the flow into the top of the tank as the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed. But oil's still able to drain out of the bottom, kind of, like normal because that tank is being drained. Those inventories have been drawn down. Maybe that's a quite a crude analogy, to forgive the pun.But how long can that last? I mean, if we think about these inventories, if we think about the speed of which they're being drawn down; and I think that's an important point that you mentioned, that these inventories were unusually high going in. But they're obviously not unlimited.Where does that stand? And I guess, you know, what is the limit of that? How long can those inventory draws last?Martijn Rats: Yeah, yeah. To say that this is the billion-dollar question would be understating it, Andrew. It's also a unusually complicated question to answer in the sense that it depends very heavily on the region, on the product that you're looking at. Jet fuel in Europe, NAFTA in Asia, you might see something sooner. But other products in other regions, you know, might take longer.We often don't really know where the operational limitations of inventories are. Globally, we see something like 8 billion barrels of oil in some form of storage. That is an enormous amount. We can't draw that down to zero because a lot of that is there for operational, like working capital type reasons. Just to facilitate the operations of the industry. Is the floor seven? Is the floor six? These things are hard to answer.Andrew Sheets: You've got to have some oil in the pipeline to make the pipeline flow…Martijn Rats: Exactly, exactly. You can't operate a refinery if you don't have at least some storage right next to it. It just doesn't work. So, these things are hard to know. But I would say that we are eating through these buffers very, very re-rapidly now. Oil on water has largely normalized and is no longer elevated.We are seeing very large inventory draws across every data point that we have on refined products. Refined products are universally drawing. On crude, the data is more patchy. But we are seeing large inventory draws now coming through in the United States. I would say – and this is partly having worked with this data for a long time and sort of developing some market feel rather than very analytical spreadsheets, so to say. But I would say that if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume on the sort of next four to six weeks, we will get very, very tight by June, early summer.And, well, look, I mean, from there, it's simply… You know, if you then were to forecast. You know, project forward from there on. It would be getting tight by August, September. But of course, that's done under the assumption that the flow remains impaired over that period, which I would say most market participants would not assume at the moment.Andrew Sheets: And another point that comes up sometimes, at least in my conversations, is, ‘Oh, but, you know, maybe Venezuelan oil is going to be coming online.' There's more investment. The U.S. seems very focused on increasing oil output in Venezuela. You know, can that match in any sense the scale of what we've had disrupted here?Martijn Rats: No, that is a complicated issue in the sense that, you know, growing oil production takes time. It takes capital, it takes equipment, it takes a lot of people. Venezuela at the moment, produces a bit more than a million barrels a day. I'd have to say, like, relative to the size of Venezuela's production, the last two monthly data points have actually come in better than expected. But you're talking about 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day, that sort of thing. Relative to a supply shock that is 13-14 million barrels a day.The fastest ever single amount of production growth of any country in any year was 2018. U.S. shale with natural gas liquids included grew 2 million barrels a day in a single year. But yeah, even that…Andrew Sheets: So, 2 million barrels relative to 14 million barrels lost is…Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly.Andrew Sheets A drop in the bucket. Martijn Rats: And that had a huge run-up of several years of putting the infrastructure in place to do that. I mean, it…. You don't turn it on a dime either. So no, that remains difficult.Andrew Sheets: So, you know, maybe a dynamic to close with is actually another way that I think people care about the oil price, you know, besides their portfolio – which is they drive.And, you know, you had a great stat in your report that one out of every 11 barrels of oil that's produced ends up in an American car. And the U.S. is a big producer. Its inventories have been drawing down. There are clear signs that the U.S. is exporting a lot of energy, and as a result, gas prices are also going up in the U.S.So, you know, what… If you could just talk a little bit about the move in gasoline and maybe, you know, I think this could be a good segue into this idea of distillates into, kind of, parts of refined product. And how those prices can deviate or not from the barrel of oil we often talk about. And then even just more generally, kind of what is the price at the pump that people might need to think about as you head into the summer – assuming, you know, this conflict is still somewhat uncertain.Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the United States is very interesting at the moment. In the sense that the regular discourse about the United States is that the United States is energy independent because it is a net oil producer. And at the most aggregate level, that is correct. But that doesn't mean that the United States is not connected to the rest of the world from an oil market perspective. I would say actually it's the opposite.The U.S. oil market is deeply connected to the rest of the world. It is a net exporter because there are very large imports, and there are very large exports, and it just happens so that the exports are a little bit bigger than the imports. So, it's a net exporter.But flows in both directions exist for every product – for crude, for diesel, for gasoline. So, the U.S. should be the last place to have physical disruptions because the supply is close to home. But in the end, it's so connected; that in the end, there's only one global oil price – and we all pay it, including in the United States.Now, because of the deficits at the moment, in Asia, to [an] extent in Europe, there is a very large pool on oil from the United States, and we're seeing that across the board. Crude oil exports were 4 million barrels a day, at the start of the year. They're now running sort of 5.5, even 6 million barrels a day. So, there's a lot of crude being pulled out of the United States. That is partly also the SBR release, the release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the export's very, very large.Another product where that is also happening is in gasoline. Now, the gasoline market in the United States has a degree of complexity to it in the sense that the U.S. is a big importer of gasoline in the East Coast and the West Coast, but then a big exporter from the Gulf Coast.Andrew Sheets: Hunh! Okay. Yeah.Martijn Rats: Net-net, it's an exporter, but in the East Coast and the West Coast, big, big importer. Now, in Europe, for example, we are normally long gasoline, short diesel. We export our surplus to the U.S. East Coast. But, at the moment, it's tight in Europe, so we're not exporting that much gasoline. So, imports in the United States have dropped a lot.At the same time, Asian customers, Brazilian customers, Mexican customers [are] pulling a lot of gasoline out of the Gulf Coast. And as a result, the net exports are unusually high for this time of the year. On top of that, the Strait of Hormuz issue has tightened the diesel market so much relative to the gasoline market that it is favorable for refineries to maximize their diesel output over their gasoline output.Andrew Sheets: Hmm. And these are decisions you can make in terms of how you crack that barrel in a refinery and split it up.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Within a relatively narrow window, but you can make tweaks that are significant. Now, normally, we're going into this summer driving season, refineries switch from what we call max diesel to max gasoline. At the moment, they are not doing that.Andrew Sheets: Mm.Martijn Rats: So, you have low gasoline production, and you have large net exports of gasoline. Over the last 11 weeks already, we have seen a very significant, very significant decline in gasoline inventories in the United States. And prices have risen at the pump. The nation's average is now $4.50 per barrel, as of reports this morning.The summer driving season has yet to start. That can become $4.70, $4.80. That can become $5. Above $5 is historically a point where people get, yeah, worried about demand destruction. And it has a real impact.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, I think this remains such an important and interesting story. And even if, you know, it can seem sometimes like the market has moved on to other things, clearly there are a lot of other factors driving the equity market. It remains pretty historic, pretty significant, and pretty complicated. Also, something that I think, you know, affects the day-to-day spending and lives of a lot of people out there.So, Martijn, again, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

“The current crisis was far from inevitable. Politicians made consistently bad choices. In doing so, they fostered a crisis of confidence in political institutions, empowered anti-system candidates, and produced a new Cold War as dangerous as the last.” — Ian Shapiro The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 was a moment of extraordinary euphoria. Fukuyama even described it as the end of history. But what seems to have really fallen in November '89 was the vitality of democracy. Almost forty years later, we have Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and, perhaps most worrying of all, Keir Starmer. Callous and inept politicians are breaking our democratic world. Our job is to put it back together. That's the thesis of a new book by Ian Shapiro — Sterling Professor of Political Science at Yale. In After the Fall, Shapiro argues that it's politicians who have created today's crisis of democracy. His pivotal moment is 2008 rather than 1989. The global financial crisis was the inflection point — the moment at which the corruption of the neoliberal order became self-evident, when elites bailed out the banks and we see the birth of left and right wing illiberal populism. The roots go back before 2008. Clinton's greatest failure, Shapiro argues, was not NAFTA or welfare reform. It was Russia. Yeltsin wanted to join NATO. Even Putin, in his early years in power, acknowledged that Russia considered itself European. George Kennan, Brent Scowcroft and Richard Nixon warned that expanding NATO eastward would create a new enemy. Clinton ignored them all. So history repeated itself in the form of Versailles rather than the Marshall Plan. So how to raise ourselves up after this fall? What road to take? Maps, Shapiro suggests, aren't always helpful. The New Deal had no GPS algorithm. FDR invented it on the fly. What democratic governments need now, he insists, is massive investment in physical, technological, and labor market infrastructure. Charismatic leaders matter. But the ideas matter more. We need politicians who take risks. Otherwise we'll be saddled with Keir Starmer and our current crisis of extraordinary dysphoria. Five Takeaways •       2008, Not 1989, Was the Inflection Point: The fall of the Wall in 1989 produced euphoria. The real break came nineteen years later. The 2008 financial crisis exposed the neoliberal model, undermined the supremacy of the US-led world system, and — crucially — left behind a large population that would subsequently be mobilizable by political entrepreneurs. Elites bailed out the banks and returned to business as usual. They didn't realize that business as usual was over. From 2008 you can draw a straight line to 2016, to Brexit, to Trump, to every anti-system surge that followed. •       We Repeated the Mistake of Versailles: After World War II, the Marshall Plan invested in the defeated powers — Germany, Japan — and folded them into the new security and economic architecture. After World War I, Versailles punished Germany, and Keynes predicted the results. After the Cold War, the victorious West chose Versailles over Marshall. Yeltsin wanted to join NATO and the EU. Even early Putin said Russia considered itself European. Kennan, Scowcroft, Nixon all warned that expanding NATO eastward would create a new enemy. Clinton ignored them. We created the enemy we warned ourselves about. •       Politicians Broke the World — Not Capitalism, Not Culture: Shapiro's subtitle is precise. The crisis of democracy was not caused by inevitable economic forces or cultural shifts. It was caused by specific bad decisions by specific politicians at specific moments of choice. Clinton on NATO expansion. Bush on the Iraq War and the refusal to build a genuine rules-based international order after 9/11. Obama on the financial crisis response. These were decisions, not fates. They could have been made differently. Which means the current situation is not irreversible — and that future decisions can be made better. •       Starmer as Exhibit A: Having Power Without Ideas: Shapiro's prescription for what democratic governments need: a policy agenda. His cautionary tale: Keir Starmer. Starmer came into office with a massive parliamentary majority — he could have passed legislation that attracted 50 or 60 backbench no votes and still won. He had nothing to pass. Tiny step left, tiny step right, reverse, repeat. His comparison: Trump's main policies came out of Project 2025 — put together not by Trump himself but by people who created the ramp he ran on. Without a ramp, even a charismatic leader stumbles. Without ideas, power is squandered. •       The New Deal Had No Blueprint: FDR Made It Up: The lesson for what comes next. The New Deal — the last great democratic reconstruction — was not designed in advance. Roosevelt made it up as he went along, trying things, abandoning what didn't work, building a coalition of extraordinarily unlikely bedfellows. What democratic governments need now, Shapiro argues, is massive infrastructure investment: physical infrastructure, tech infrastructure, labor market infrastructure. The CHIPS Act model. Incentivize business to retrain the workforce for the tech revolution and the green transition. Chancellor Merz in Germany has just borrowed half a trillion euros for this. Without it, there will be another Trump. And another. And another. About the Guest Ian Shapiro is Sterling Professor of Political Science and Global Affairs at Yale University and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of After the Fall: From the End of History to the Crisis of Democracy — How Politicians Broke Our World (Basic Books, May 5, 2026), Uncommon Sense, The Wolf at the Door (with Michael Graetz), and many other books. He lives in New Haven, Connecticut. References: •       After the Fall: From the End of History to the Crisis of Democracy — How Politicians Broke Our World by Ian Shapiro (Basic Books, May 5, 2026). •       Episode 2881: Adrian Wooldridge on The Revolutionary Center — the companion episode on the crisis of liberalism that Shapiro's book diagnoses. •       Episode 2895: Glyn Morgan on The Rise and Fall of American Europe — the international dimension of Shapiro's argument about the post-Cold War missed opportunities. •       Episode 2880: Gal Beckerman on How to Be a Dissident — on the tradition of resistance that Shapiro's “roads not taken” argument implicitly invokes. About Keen On America Nobody asks more awkward questions than th...

Plus: The Bank of Canada governor says he's encouraged by the federal government's efforts to insulate the economy against future shocks, a new poll shows most Canadians are not comfortable with the direction of the national economy, Alberta marks a somber anniversary, Habs fans are preparing for Game 6, and one year later and two Nova Scotian kids are still missing. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us: Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca  Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky

Judging by the coverage out of New Delhi overnight, the Indian press appears optimistic about the trade deal with New Zealand. As optimistic as our Government and industry, and as of last week, Labour, are about it here. Their trade department points out the thing excludes dairy, so that's safe, along with other sensitive markets. They like the fact we conceded 100% duty-free access in key manufacturing and labour-intensive industries - the Mint news site name checks textiles, leather, footwear, engineering goods, plastics, and processed foods. Here, our primary industries are celebrating their wins. And that's the point that I think was somewhat lost in the last few months; both sides win from trade deals. You make some concessions but you get some gains. Like any deal. It's not all one-way traffic. India is set to overtake Germany as the world's third largest economy. It's a behemoth. To not jump onboard would have meant missing the boat. Most Kiwis can see the benefits from the deal Goff and Clark signed with China. Trump may be trying to sully the reputation of free trade, but it hasn't dampened our spirits because we can see the benefits. There's an argument to be made against NAFTA for rustbelt workers in the US, but in this country, the benefits have largely outweighed the costs. And there will be costs, like with any deal. But the net benefit is what we should be focussed on. To realise those benefits, the reigns are now in the hands of business to do what it does best. Our exporters, our deal-makers, our market specialists are already on the blower, on the plane, and in country trying to get a slice of the action. Good luck to them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The USMCA review is fast approaching, uncertainty is building across the automotive industry, and leaders are asking a critical question: Is the agreement that binds North America together at risk?Colin Bird, the Consul General of Canada in Detroit, United States, brings clarity. This is not a collapse or a dramatic reset. It is a built-in review designed to test whether the agreement still works in a world that has fundamentally changed. The environment that shaped USMCA no longer exists. Supply chains are strained, global competition is intensifying, and China has accelerated ahead in the EV space.The real issue is not whether the agreement survives. The issue is whether North America can operate effectively under pressure. July 1 is not a breaking point. It's part of a process meant to ensure the agreement stays relevant while the industry evolves at speed.Colin makes it clear that the real danger comes when North America starts putting up barriers within its own system. The automotive supply chain has been built over decades to operate seamlessly across borders. When tariffs or policy decisions disrupt that flow, it does not just impact one country. It makes the entire region less competitive at a time when global players are moving fast.This episode is about what matters now: certainty, coordination, and competitiveness. The industry doesn't need more noise or political posturing. It needs alignment. Because if North America wants to win, it must act as one integrated system, not three separate countries.Themes Discussed in this EpisodeWhat the USMCA “review” really meansWhy July 1 is not a cliff, but a checkpointThe risk of disrupting a deeply integrated supply chainHow tariffs and policy decisions can backfire on North AmericaWhy China's EV acceleration changes everythingThe critical role of certainty and predictability for investmentWhat leaders must focus on to stay competitive globally

Buckle up, folks! Today's episode is a wild ride through the messiest, juiciest conversations about church, politics, and global trade, served with a side of satire and a sprinkle of smirk. Former U.S. Senator and Ambassador to the Vatican Joe Donnelly dropping truth bombs about the Catholic Church's dance with politics.But there's more! Washington Post financial journalist David J. Lynch hoins Heidi and Joel to help you navigate the murky waters of AI, tariffs, and global instability with razor-sharp wit. Lynch's new book, The World's Worst Bet: How the Globalization Gamble Went Wrong (And What Would Make It Right), addresses rise and fall of the greatest engine of prosperity the world has ever known.Lynch explains why global trade prosperity is failing to benefit Americans and what we can do to change it.In this episode:Joe Donnelly roasts the U.S. President for his AI Jesus and Pope-bashing anticsThe Catholic bishops' role in American politics, and why their message hits a nerveHow Trump's AI-generated image depicting him as Jesus is sparking international outrage, and should make us all uncomfortableThe domino effect of tariffs, trade wars, and the broken promises to rural AmericaThe strategic disaster of ignoring Congress in decisions about war, and why even Senate insiders are throwing in the towelWhy globalized trade isn't a magic potion for economic prosperityThe urgent need to rethink safety nets as AI and economic inequality threaten to wipe out the middle classResources & Links:The World's Worst Bet: How the Globalization Gamble Went WrongWashington Post – David LynchConnect with David J. Lynch:BlueskyAnd remember: When it comes to faith, trade, and technology—sometimes the truth is too bizarre for fiction. Thanks for tuning in to the Hot Dish: the political casserole your grandma would be proud of, served up with a side of sass.The Hot Dish is brought to you by the One Country Project. To learn more, visit OneCountryProject.org, or find us on Substack (Onecountryproject.substack.com), and on YouTube, Bluesky, and Facebook (@onecountryproject). (00:00) - Joel and Heidi speak with Joe Donnelly about Trump versus the Pope (25:16) - Introduction to Globalization and Its Impact (28:14) - The Consequences of NAFTA and Trade Policies (30:55) - Political Ramifications of Globalization (34:00) - The Effects of Tariffs on American Workers (36:52) - Trust and Credibility in International Trade (39:58) - The Future of Globalization and AI (42:51) - Addressing the Challenges Ahead

This one is a preview of something I've been wanting to do for a long time — a class on the history of Christian social ethics that's actually useful for the moment we're in. Cornell West calls Gary Dorrien the greatest living Christian social ethicist, and after spending any amount of time with him, you understand why. Gary and Aaron Stoffer joined me to give people a taste of what's coming in Theology for Troublemakers, and what they gave us was a genuine history lesson that landed like a live wire. We started with Gary's own formation — a rural Michigan kid who never took a school book home until second semester senior year, who walked into a Catholic church and couldn't stop staring at the figure on the cross, who read a biography of King in ninth grade three times and went looking for the theologians King mentioned in the public library and found none of them. That kid became one of the most important social ethicists of our time. From there we moved into Norman Thomas's warning — that American populism always surges toward a dictator who scapegoats the vulnerable — and what the left's recurring failure to build cross-racial, multi-issue coalitions has to do with where we are now. Gary named the nineties as the most demoralizing decade of his life: TINA, triangulation, NAFTA, three-strikes, welfare gutted, and a Democratic Party that treated its progressive base as something to prove it could overcome. He was not gentle about Clinton, or Obama, or the way purity politics has consistently kneecapped the left's ability to organize. He was hopeful, carefully, about cooperatives, about DSA's organizing culture in New York, and about the strange opening the current moment creates for public theology. The class runs the whole history — from the Black Social Gospel and the new abolitionists to the Christian realists to Yoder and Dorothy Day — and Aaron frames it all in terms of what congregations can actually do with it. Go to homebrewclasses.com. This is the class for right now. You can WATCH the conversation on YouTube⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠UPCOMING ONLINE CLASS - Theology for Troublemakers: Christian Social Ethics from the Margins⁠⁠⁠⁠ The injustices we face are immense — but they are not unique. Previous generations confronted the same powers with theological conviction and strategic brilliance. The question is whether we'll learn from them. This 6-week online course, led by Dr. Gary Dorrien and Dr. Aaron Stauffer, recovers the radical tradition of Christian social ethics — from Reverdy Ransom and Reinhold Niebuhr to James Cone and the Welfare Rights Movement — and asks what faithfulness demands of us right now. Weekly lectures, live Q&A conversations, guest lecturers, and an online community included.

Válečný konflikt v Íránu přinesl Francouzům, stejně jako celému světu, mnoho starostí. Hlavním aktuálním problémem, který se dotýká každého Francouze, je zdražování nafty a plynu.Všechny díly podcastu Názory a argumenty můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Trump vyhrál? Vážně? Jak Rusko reaguje na příměří. Prezident Pavel hodlá jet na summit NATO. Severoatlantická aliance Trumpa přežije, ale změní se. Země, kde stojí za to mít děti. Je takovou Česko? Nafta s chutí pelyňku. Moderuje Petr Hartman.Všechny díly podcastu Názory a argumenty můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Česká vláda historicky poprvé stanovila maximální cenu nafty a benzínu na čerpacích stanicích. Zastropovala rovněž výši marží a u nafty také snížila spotřební daň. „Většina ekonomů se shoduje, že regulace cen je ten nejdražší a nejméně efektivní způsob řešení zvýšených cen,“ namítá v Interview Plus ekonom a člen dozorčí rady společnosti MOL Ivan Mikloš, který působil jako slovenský ministr financí.Všechny díly podcastu Interview Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Vláda krotí ceny nafty a benzinu. Strop stanovila nad průměrnou cenou pohonných hmot. Dává to smysl? A může ještě zdražit ropa? O kolik? Téma pro Jana Berku, hlavního ekonoma společnosti Portu, který přednáší na Metropolitní univerzitě Praha. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.Všechny díly podcastu Vinohradská 12 můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Karš Irānā ir izprovocējis jaunu enerģētikas resursu krīzi visā pasaulē. Nafta, dabasgāze, turpat ir arī elektroenerģija. Krustpunktā izvaicājam klimata un enerģētikas ministru Kasparu Melni. Jautājumus kopā ar raidījuma vadītāju uzdod portāla "TVNET" žurnālists Mārtiņš Apinis un Latvijas TV žurnālists Dāvids Freidenfelds.  

Resumen de noticias de LA NACION de la mañana del jueves 2 de abril de 2026

The Trump administration is reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which comes up for renewal this year. The USMCA replaced NAFTA, was an economic cornerstone of President Donald Trump's first term, and accounts for more than $4 billion worth of cross-border trade. Thing is, it didn't live up to its promises of spurring manufacturing jobs. What might come next? But first, we dig into the anxiety that comes with surviving multiple rounds of layoffs.

The Trump administration is reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which comes up for renewal this year. The USMCA replaced NAFTA, was an economic cornerstone of President Donald Trump's first term, and accounts for more than $4 billion worth of cross-border trade. Thing is, it didn't live up to its promises of spurring manufacturing jobs. What might come next? But first, we dig into the anxiety that comes with surviving multiple rounds of layoffs.

The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4seVsGP

1. Spor okolo Družby sa vystupňoval, pôžička Ukrajine je zablokovaná 2. Nafta na prídel: Kamionisti natankujú iba za 400 eur, zahraničným sa zvýšia ceny 3. Na vojnu v Iráne čoraz viac doplácajú aj Trumpovi voliči 4. Podnájmy nezdraželi tak prudko ako bývanie vo vlastnom

Lajmet kryesore të ditës me datë 19 Mars.

Lajmet kryesore të ditës me datë 19 Mars.

Plus: Canadian home sales slow, the Vatican returns Indigenous items to Canada, a federal investigation into numerous fishing regulations is underway, and what is A-I baby slop? We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us: Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca  Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky

Penktadienį (kovo 13 d.) laidoje Tiek Pinigų su vedėju Andrium jūsų laukia naujienos apie Tarptautinės energetikos agentūros sprendimą į pasaulinę rinką išleisti avarines naftos atsargas. Apkalbės Lietuvos ir Čekijos prezidentų susitikimą ir bendradarbiavimo sutarimą. Taip pat aptars ir mokytojų trūkumą Lietuvoje bei ką reikštų sprendimas išeiti į nuotolinį mokymą.

Nafta se še naprej draži zaradi zaprtja Hormuške ožine, zato se v Evropi pripravljajo na najhujše scenarije za prihodnje mesece. Zaskrbljenost na celini ob tem povzroča še odločitev ameriškega predsednika Trumpa, da začasno omili sankcije na izvoz ruske nafte; Nemčija želi, da vojna z Iranom ne bi poslabšala položaja Ukrajine. Ameriški obrambni minister Pete Hegseth medtem skoraj vsakodnevno ponavlja, da Iran čakajo najhujši napadi doslej. Zato se postavlja vprašanje, kam ali v koga bodo usmerjeni, saj so po Hegsethovih trditvah uničili skoraj vso iransko proizvodnjo raket. Hkrati Hegseth še trdi, da so ranili novega iranskega vrhovnega voditelja. V oddaji tudi: - V spor med Ukrajino in Madžarsko se je vmešala Nemčija, ki madžarsko blokado posojila za Ukrajino označuje za nesprejemljivo. - Varnostni strokovnjaki ob razkritjih posnetkov z lažnih sestankov poudarjajo, da bi lahko šlo za vmešavanje tujih obveščevalnih služb. - V Podravju in Halozah po nedavnem snegolomu načrtujejo robustnejše energetsko omrežje ter dodatne agregate za nemoteno oskrbo s pitno vodo.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

In this episode, Beth Macy joins Heidi and Joel to discuss her compelling journey from journalist to political candidate. She explores how her books illuminate the struggles of rural communities facing economic and social upheaval, and how storytelling can serve as a catalyst for political change. Beth shares her insights on reconnecting with voters across political divides, the importance of local narratives, and her vision for representing rural America in Congress.Key topics covered:Beth Macy's background as a journalist and author of Factory Man, Dopesick, and Paper GirlThe impact of globalization, NAFTA, and foreign trade policies on rural jobs and communitiesHow the opioid crisis and big tech regulation highlight broader societal failuresThe personal stories that catalyzed her decision to run for CongressStrategies for bridging political divides through shared values and empathyThe challenges and opportunities of campaigning in Virginia's Sixth DistrictThe influence of media, misinformation, and the decline of local journalismThe role of the farm bill, small farms, and rural economic policiesBeth's approach to reconnecting with her family across political linesHer vision for policy solutions that serve everyday AmericansResources & Links:Factory Man by Beth MacyDopesick by Beth MacyPaper Girl by Beth MacyBeth Macy's official website - bethmacyforcongress.comThe Hot Dish is brought to you by the One Country Project. To learn more, visit OneCountryProject.org, or find us on Substack (Onecountryproject.substack.com), and on YouTube, Bluesky, and Facebook (@onecountryproject). (00:00) - Introduction to Beth Macy and Her Journey (01:09) - Beth Macy's Background and Early Career (02:06) - The Impact of NAFTA and Globalization (03:54) - The Opioid Crisis and Its Effects on Rural America (05:04) - Transitioning from Journalist to Politician (06:26) - Personal Reflections and Family Dynamics (10:26) - Facing Criticism and Challenges in Politics (13:24) - Understanding Political Identity and Values (16:50) - The Role of Media in Political Discourse (19:44) - Rebuilding Family Relationships Across Political Lines (27:08) - The Sixth District: Challenges and Opportunities (30:59) - Campaign Strategies and Community Engagement (33:29) - Introduction to the Book Club and Audience Engagement (35:25) - Heidi & Joel: The Challenges Facing Small Family Farms (38:35) - The Future of Hemp and Alternative Crops (41:49) - The Current State of U.S. Foreign Policy (44:29) - The Role of Israel in U.S. Politics (47:29) - Conclusion and Future Discussions

Beth Macy did a sitdown with me for this week's “Street Knowledge” podcast. Macy is a triple threat: journalist, bestselling author (Dopesick), and now, congressional candidate – running for the Democratic Party nomination in the Sixth District in Virginia. We talked at length about her work on Dopesick and her most recent book, Paper Girl, which has the hook of Macy revisiting her rural Ohio hometown to try to figure out how it went so MAGA in her years away. The conversation then shifts to the impact of NAFTA and globalization on Appalachian economies, and how the job losses factored into the opioid and heroin crises here in our part of Virginia. We wrap with a rundown of where we are politically, and Macy's priorities if elected.

Canada and Mexico are crafting a new friendship in light of a very different United States. Hear how business leaders in both countries are working together. Plus Mexico's former permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva and deputy foreign minister during the original NAFTA negotiations talks about this new normal.

Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this electrifying continuation of his conversation with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, Tom dives into the forces shaping the next era of global power. From the much-debated Thucydides' Trap and the real state of China's future to America's political and demographic crossroads, this episode is a masterclass in understanding the seismic shifts rocking our world. Peter Zeihan makes a compelling case for why China's rise might not be the threat many fear, citing geopolitical bottlenecks, demographic crises, and internal political strife. The conversation then takes a sharp, honest look at America's own challenges—from aging demographics and political party chaos to the hard realities of reindustrialization and immigration reform. Along the way, Tom Bilyeu and Peter Zeihan examine the impact of social media on truth, the lessons (and perils) of historical mass migrations, and whether technology can rescue countries facing population decline. Get ready to have your assumptions challenged and your worldview expanded with practical insights on what's really at stake for the future of nations. Whether you're interested in economics, politics, or the fate of entire civilizations, you won't want to miss this wide-ranging, thought-provoking discussion! Website: https://zeihan.comFree Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihanYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanOnGeopolitics What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Blocktrust IRA: Get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.com Netsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impact Thucydides' Trap, China collapse, U.S. global power, demographic decline, Xi Jinping purges, Chinese military, First Island Chain, U.S. Navy, Japanese alliances, one-child policy, population overcount, industrialization, Han Chinese, civilizational collapse, warlords, agricultural dependence, U.S.-China relations, globalization, reindustrialization, NAFTA, industrial policy, political chaos, American demographics, immigration reform, labor shortages, party realignment, social media impact, media regulation, assimilation, European immigration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this electrifying continuation of his conversation with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, Tom dives into the forces shaping the next era of global power. From the much-debated Thucydides' Trap and the real state of China's future to America's political and demographic crossroads, this episode is a masterclass in understanding the seismic shifts rocking our world. Peter Zeihan makes a compelling case for why China's rise might not be the threat many fear, citing geopolitical bottlenecks, demographic crises, and internal political strife. The conversation then takes a sharp, honest look at America's own challenges—from aging demographics and political party chaos to the hard realities of reindustrialization and immigration reform. Along the way, Tom Bilyeu and Peter Zeihan examine the impact of social media on truth, the lessons (and perils) of historical mass migrations, and whether technology can rescue countries facing population decline. Get ready to have your assumptions challenged and your worldview expanded with practical insights on what's really at stake for the future of nations. Whether you're interested in economics, politics, or the fate of entire civilizations, you won't want to miss this wide-ranging, thought-provoking discussion! Website: https://zeihan.comFree Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihanYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanOnGeopolitics What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Blocktrust IRA: Get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.com Netsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impact Thucydides' Trap, China collapse, U.S. global power, demographic decline, Xi Jinping purges, Chinese military, First Island Chain, U.S. Navy, Japanese alliances, one-child policy, population overcount, industrialization, Han Chinese, civilizational collapse, warlords, agricultural dependence, U.S.-China relations, globalization, reindustrialization, NAFTA, industrial policy, political chaos, American demographics, immigration reform, labor shortages, party realignment, social media impact, media regulation, assimilation, European immigration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The rules of the game are changing—both at the border and in the regional field office. On today's episode of the America's Work Force Union Podcast, we are joined by two leading experts to discuss the policy shifts threatening union leverage in 2026. Part 1: The USMCA 2026 Review with Adam Hersh Senior Economist Adam Hersh joins us to break down the high-stakes "NAFTA 2.0" review coming this July. While USMCA was sold as a fix for manufacturing, Hersh explains why loopholes in auto rules of origin and the threat of offshoring continue to chill collective bargaining. We discuss: What happens if the U.S., Mexico, and Canada don't agree by July. How "China-linked" supply chains are shifting the footprint in Mexico. The essential pillars of a truly worker-centered trade agenda. Part 2: The NLRB Staffing Crisis with Andrew Strom Brooklyn Law School professor and labor lawyer Andrew Strom returns to discuss a compounding crisis at the National Labor Relations Board. With staffing at a decade-long low and a post-shutdown backlog mounting, "justice delayed" is becoming a tactical weapon for employers. We dive into: How new ULP intake procedures are slowing down investigations. The "chilling effect" on witness statements when cases sit for months. Why funding the NLRB is the most cost-effective way to protect the NLRA. Listen in to hear how unions can navigate these legal and economic headwinds to keep building power.

Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this episode, Tom sits down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan for a fascinating deep dive into the tectonic shifts shaping our world order. Together, Tom Bilyeu and Peter Zeihan unpack why the global landscape is changing—and why it isn't just about any single political figure, but rather the collision of long-standing trends in trade, demographics, and national priorities. You'll hear Peter Zeihan break down how the post–World War II system, built on American-led security and global cooperation, is unraveling amidst demographic decline and shifting alliances. They explore why the current moment might be unlike anything we've seen since the Black Plague, what happens when countries are forced to become economic generalists again, and why U.S. leadership is facing a critical test. Plus, Tom Bilyeu presses Peter on what this means for America's future, global productivity, and the hard choices ahead. Whether you're a geopolitical buff or just eager to understand how economics truly drives world affairs, this episode will challenge your assumptions and give you the tools to see the present—and the future—in a whole new light. Stay tuned for this thought-provoking conversation. Follow Peter Zeihan:Website: https://zeihan.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-zeihan-1a8176/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Blocktrust IRA: Get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.com Netsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impact global security, US foreign policy, trade, demographics, Cold War, NATO, globalization, manufacturing, K-shaped economy, world order, American alliances, post-World War II system, containment, economic sanctions, Iraq War, war on terror, US industrial base, economic models, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), tariffs, Trump administration, supply chain, deglobalization, NAFTA, regional globalization, policy experts, Cuban workforce, Colombia infrastructure, technological stagnation, demographic collapse, China-US relations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this episode, Tom sits down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan for a fascinating deep dive into the tectonic shifts shaping our world order. Together, Tom Bilyeu and Peter Zeihan unpack why the global landscape is changing—and why it isn't just about any single political figure, but rather the collision of long-standing trends in trade, demographics, and national priorities. You'll hear Peter Zeihan break down how the post–World War II system, built on American-led security and global cooperation, is unraveling amidst demographic decline and shifting alliances. They explore why the current moment might be unlike anything we've seen since the Black Plague, what happens when countries are forced to become economic generalists again, and why U.S. leadership is facing a critical test. Plus, Tom Bilyeu presses Peter on what this means for America's future, global productivity, and the hard choices ahead. Whether you're a geopolitical buff or just eager to understand how economics truly drives world affairs, this episode will challenge your assumptions and give you the tools to see the present—and the future—in a whole new light. Stay tuned for this thought-provoking conversation. Follow Peter Zeihan:Website: https://zeihan.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-zeihan-1a8176/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Blocktrust IRA: Get up to $2,500 funding bonus to kickstart your account at https://tomcryptoira.com Netsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impact global security, US foreign policy, trade, demographics, Cold War, NATO, globalization, manufacturing, K-shaped economy, world order, American alliances, post-World War II system, containment, economic sanctions, Iraq War, war on terror, US industrial base, economic models, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), tariffs, Trump administration, supply chain, deglobalization, NAFTA, regional globalization, policy experts, Cuban workforce, Colombia infrastructure, technological stagnation, demographic collapse, China-US relations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's show, host Esty Dinur is joined by friend of the program, Norman Solomon, to discuss the status of the Democratic Party. His new book is The Blue Road to Trump Hell: How Corporate Democrats Paved the Way for Autocracy and it is available for free online. Solomon says we need a stronger Democratic Party–a progressive Democratic Party–to stop fascism and prevent a Vance presidency. It's not feasible to stop xenophobia and misogyny with neoliberal centrism, as with Biden and Harris's campaigns, says Solomon. At the top, the Democratic Party is pro-military, pro-corporations. Too often, centrist Democrats work against progressives, as with NAFTA and the Crime Bill that  accelerated mass incarceration. Though Biden did some good work while in office, he ultimately folded when it came to the Build Back Better Act. Instead, we need strong Democratic leadership “that fights like hell for working people, children, the elderly, and the infirm.” They also discuss how corporate paywalls keep information inaccessible to regular people, how RFK is “viciously anti-Palestinian” and anti-democratic, Bernie Sander's success in calling out plutocracy and corporate greed, Mamdani's success in New York City, and the status of the DHS budget. Norman Solomon is a journalist, media critic, author and activist. He's the National Director of RootsAction and the Executive Director of the Institute for Public Accuracy.  His book War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine was published in 2023. In a starred review, Kirkus Reviews called the book “a powerful, necessary indictment of efforts to disguise the human toll of American foreign policy.” Norman's dozen other books include War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death. Featured image of the cover of Norman Solomon's most recent book, The Blue Road to Trump Hell: How Corporate Democrats Paved the Way for Autocracy. Did you enjoy this story? Your funding makes great, local journalism like this possible. Donate hereThe post Why We Need to Complain About Democrats appeared first on WORT-FM 89.9.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump started to put all the pieces together starting back in 2017. He was setting the stage to remove NAFTA but he was not able to because congress put roadblocks into the legislation, so he transitioned it into the USMCA and now he has trapped Canada in it. Trade deals are power of the US, the US has the leverage and the [CB] knows it.  The [DS] along with Biden, Obama and Clinton are pushing the insurgency in this country. Walz believes he has the upper hand making a deal with Trump but this is going to backfire on him and Frey. The people in MN are already upset. The D’s believe they can shutdown the government and use the DHS funding to do it. But the OBBB is funding ICE so this is going to fail. Trump has the leverage and he weakening the [DS] every step of the way. The root cause is being exposed to the country.   Economy Big Picture: President Trump and Trade Using the Art of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Canada and the EU take trade and economic positions seemingly against U.S. interests. Simultaneously Mexico modifies all their trade positions to come into alignment with the USA. Yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico will no longer ship oil to Cuba.   When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn't care – it was irrelevant to him.  Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation. So, why didn't President Trump care?  Easy, because in President Trump's mind there's not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn't care if Canada runs to violate it.  In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA. If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier.  Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.  If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference. Source: theconservativetreehouse.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2015924180160594345?s=20 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2015949123648909631?s=20  more than officially reported. Furthermore, China officially bought an additional 0.9 tonnes in December, pushing the total gold reserves to a record 2,306 tonnes. This also marked the 14th consecutive monthly purchase. In 2025, China's total reported gold purchases reached +27 tonnes. Assuming official purchases were 10% of what China is actually buying, this suggests China acquired +270 tonnes of physical gold in 2025. China is stockpiling gold like we are in a major crisis.    2025. Why hasn’t the Korean Legislature approved it?   Because the Korean Legislature hasn’t enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative, I am hereby increasing South Korean TARIFFS on Autos, Lumber, Pharma, and all other Reciprocal TARIFFS, from 15% to 25%. Thank you for your attention to this matter!   DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Political/Rights DOGE https://twitter.com/alx/status/2015969948674203731?s=20 Geopolitical  War/Peace Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda  https://twitter.com/VASenateGOP/status/2015208669336813823?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2015208669336813823%7Ctwgr%5E5081d9eb1b9220fa690d082571ec929c4f0248cc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fvirginia-democrats-now-seeking-double-their-own-pay%2F   pocket to line their own. TOTAL CON JOB! True. The Department of Justice did withdraw its request for arrest warrants against Don Lemon and four other individuals involved in the disruption of a church service in St. Paul, Minnesota, following a federal magistrate judge’s refusal to approve the related criminal complaints and an appeals court’s rejection of the DOJ’s emergency bid to compel the warrants.  While prosecutors could potentially pursue charges through alternative means, such as a grand jury, the specific action of withdrawing the warrant request aligns with the reported events https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/2016208255677067439?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricBrakey/status/2015578832070123856?s=20 https://twitter.com/JayTownAlabama/status/2015584436230717786?s=20 According to recent data from the Giffords Law Center, the following 16 jurisdictions (15 states plus the District of Columbia) have explicit prohibitions on carrying firearms at demonstrations, protests, or licensed public gatherings. These restrictions vary by state, with some banning both concealed and open carry, while others target only one or apply under specific conditions (e.g., only for participants or permitted events). Note that laws can change, and some states have exceptions like for enhanced permit holders. State/Jurisdiction Concealed Carry Prohibited? Open Carry Prohibited? Notes Alabama Yes Yes Arkansas Yes No Applies only to participants in permitted demonstrations; enhanced CCW permittees are allowed. California No Yes Open carry banned generally. Connecticut No Yes Open carry banned generally. District of Columbia Yes Yes Florida No Yes Open carry banned generally. Hawaii Yes Yes Illinois Yes Yes Louisiana Yes No Applies to permitted demonstrations or parades. Maryland Yes Yes Mississippi Yes No Applies to permitted demonstrations or parades. Nebraska Yes No Applies at “political rallies” and fundraisers. New Jersey Yes Yes New York Yes Yes North Carolina Yes Yes Washington No Yes   https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/2015928285436203305?s=20 https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2016211395273011469?s=20  gets disarmed… then shot. DHS is already tracking violent agitators who assault or obstruct officers (you know, felonies). Tom Homan pushing to make these interferers “famous” via database – names, faces, employers notified. The same crowd screaming “police state” will ignore he already assaulted officers once and walked   https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/2016235731602067586?s=20 https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/2016177515845283911?s=20   nation that tramples the 4th Amendment and tolerates our neighbors being terrorized. The people of Minnesota have stood strong — helping community members in unimaginable circumstances, speaking out against injustice when they see it, and holding our government accountable to the people. Minnesotans have reminded us all what it is to be American, and they have suffered enough at the hands of this Administration. Violence and terror have no place in the United States of America, especially when it's our own government targeting American citizens. No single person can destroy what America stands for and believes in, not even a President, if we — all of America — stand up and speak out. We know who we are. It’s time to show the world. More importantly, it’s time to show ourselves. Now, justice requires full, fair, and transparent investigations into the deaths of the two Americans who lost their lives in the city they called home. Jill and I are sending strength to the families and communities who love Alex Pretti and Renee Good as we all mourn their senseless deaths.   https://twitter.com/RyanSaavedra/status/2015985227798139267?s=20 https://twitter.com/JDVance/status/2015918587609772148?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2015971665906110549?s=20 https://twitter.com/BillMelugin_/status/2016220055973855403?s=20     https://twitter.com/Recon1_ZA/status/2015778411650732184?s=20   It’s a rapid, involuntary reaction mediated by the brainstem, involving muscle tension, elevated heart rate, and adrenaline release. That repetitive exposure from them fatigues neural pathways but sustains heightened arousal, diverting cognitive resources from higher-order tasks to basic threat monitoring. It is an acute stressor, activating the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and sympathetic nervous system, which releases cortisol and adrenaline. Long exposure to this stuff impairs prefrontal cortex function critical for decision making. Pair this with the sheer annoyance, these tactics are a low-tech escalation of protest disruption, rooted in documented physiological responses to noise. In layman’s terms, they’re putting these officers on edge and triggering them to act. Pretti and Good was exactly what they wanted. It’s usually someone else who ends up dying and not the instigator. This is a great example. Watch the guy at the rear strike an officer against the head with an object. These officers, already on edge, are very likely to react to something like that. When someone ends up getting hurt, they’re all innocent. These events aren’t random. These are organised tactics. 80% of the people protesting aren’t aware that they’re being used by their own team as cannon fodder to generate outrage. https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/2015620564787105892?s=20   Tending the Soil on Chuffed. More about Tending the Soil later. What to know: the campaign is hosted by Chuffed and the first donation came from Jonny Soppotiuk, a Canada-based community organizer who is part of Chuffed leadership and specializes in fundraising. He is most likely a central figure in raising money. So, yeah. Starting to look like foreigners are playing a key role in all of this. That’s not all. I’ve put together a spreadsheet of 4000+ donors and their possible identities. https://twitter.com/davidson_f14299/status/2015874164679442499?s=20  Machine that's been running this country for decades. She's tied into the donors, the nonprofits, the consultants, the media networks — all the gears that keep the Machine turning. And look at what she just did. She tweeted out that webpage directing people to donate through a foreign‑operated platform. That's not some innocent little share. That's the Machine signaling to its own network — money pipelines, global partners, and political messaging all moving in sync. She knows exactly what she's amplifying and who benefits from it. And this isn't new for her. Look back at Russiagate. Her campaign funded the Steele dossier — the spark that set off years of investigations, headlines, and division. Even after the whole thing fell apart under scrutiny, the chaos it created was already locked in. That's how the Machine works: it doesn't need accuracy, it just needs momentum. And she's been one of the people who knows how to generate that momentum better than anyone. So where does she sit in the Machine? Right in the core. Not elected. Not accountable. Still pulling levers through the same networks she helped build. She's not operating inside the Machine — she's one of the people who designed the damn thing. And that's why her name keeps showing up. Not because she holds office. But because the Machine still runs on the structures she put in place — and every time she boosts a link, a cause, or a narrative, you can see those old gears turning all over again.  https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/2015963638096429102?s=20 https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2015941282237972649?s=20     President Trump's Plan  And we back you WHOLEHEARTEDLY in making it happen https://twitter.com/TriciaOhio/status/2015939758858371393?s=20   https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2015858856430055491?s=20   professional. He will continue to lead Customs and Border Patrol throughout and across the country — Mr. Homan will be the main point of contact on the ground in Minneapolis.” Hakeem Jeffries Backs Impeachment Push Against Kristi Noem House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team voiced support Tuesday for impeaching Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem. Nearly 150 House Democrats have sponsored articles of impeachment against Noem, first unveiled by Democratic Illinois Rep. Robin Kelly on Jan. 14, but Jeffries had not previously backed the impeachment push. Jeffries vowed Tuesday that House Democrats will launch impeachment proceedings against Noem if President Donald Trump does not fire her. Source: dailycaller.com https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2016203259900317988?s=20   https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2016218361844174956?s=20   Minnesota State Patrol has now been activated. They could have done this the whole time, but it wasn't until after the call between Walz and Trump, and the discovery of the Signal groups involving Minnesota government officials, that this happened.   https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/2015868419187544417?s=20 https://twitter.com/derrickvanorden/status/2015808200495312963?s=20 Counterinsurgency may be defined as ‘comprehensive civilian and military efforts taken to simultaneously defeat and contain insurgency and address its root causes'. Defeat refers to actively dismantling the insurgent group’s capabilities—through kinetic operations (e.g., raids, airstrikes) to kill or capture leaders, disrupt supply lines, and degrade their fighting strength. Contain means preventing the insurgency from spreading or escalating. This could involve securing borders, isolating insurgent areas, or using psychological operations (psyops) to undermine their recruitment and propaganda. The “simultaneously” part stresses that these aren’t sequential steps; they happen in parallel. You can’t just “contain” without addressing threats, nor can you defeat an insurgency if it keeps regenerating in new areas. Key challenge: Insurgents often blend into the civilian population, making it hard to target them without collateral damage, which can create more enemies. 3. Address Its Root Causes Insurgencies don’t arise in a vacuum; they’re often driven by underlying issues like political exclusion, economic inequality, corruption, ethnic tensions, or lack of basic services. The definition insists that long-term success requires tackling these “root causes” to prevent resurgence. This might include reforms such as land redistribution, anti-corruption drives, inclusive governance, or economic development programs. Without this, military victories are temporary. For instance, historical cases like the Malayan Emergency (1948–1960) succeeded partly because British forces combined military action with resettlement programs and political concessions that addressed Malay grievances against colonial rule. Broader Context and Principles Population-Centric Approach: Modern COIN doctrine, influenced by thinkers like David Galula or modern adaptations, views the local population as the “center of gravity.” The goal is to protect civilians, gain their trust, and separate them from insurgents—often summarized as “clear, hold, build” (clear insurgents from an area, hold it securely, and build sustainable institutions). Challenges and Criticisms: COIN is resource-intensive, time-consuming, and politically fraught. It can lead to prolonged conflicts, human rights abuses, or mission creep. Critics argue it sometimes ignores cultural contexts or over-relies on foreign intervention, as seen in Vietnam or Iraq. Success Factors: Effective COIN requires unity of effort (coordination between allies), intelligence-driven operations, and adaptability. Metrics for success go beyond body counts to include governance improvements and reduced violence. In essence, this definition portrays counterinsurgency as a balanced, enduring campaign that blends force with reform to not just suppress rebellion but eliminate the conditions that sustain it.    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2015886441063055779?s=20 patriots need all the support they can get!  Background on the “Big Beautiful Bill” and ICE Funding In 2025, Republicans passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (often referred to by President Trump as the “Big Beautiful Bill”), which allocated approximately $75 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over four years. This funding was separate from annual appropriations and effectively tripled ICE’s budget, providing a multi-year “slush fund” for immigration enforcement, including deportations.  This bill was part of Trump’s broader immigration agenda and bypassed traditional yearly funding processes, allowing ICE to operate independently of short-term congressional battles. Current Shutdown Threat and Democrats’ Strategy Democrats, led by figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Patty Murray, Chris Murphy, and others, have vowed to block the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill in the Senate. This bill includes $64.4 billion for DHS overall, with about $10 billion specifically for ICE in the current fiscal year.  Why the Shutdown Won’t Defund ICE Even prominent Democrats like Sen. Murray acknowledge that a shutdown or continuing resolution (short-term funding patch) won’t restrain ICE. The agency can draw from the $75 billion already secured via the Big Beautiful Bill, allowing operations to continue uninterrupted under Trump’s “law-and-order” immigration crackdown.  A shutdown would primarily affect non-ICE parts of DHS (e.g., TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard) and other bundled departments, forcing some federal workers to go without pay while ICE remains funded and operational.  Republican Position and “Upper Hand” The White House and GOP leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson are not yielding, insisting on passing the full package without decoupling DHS funding. They view Democratic threats as ineffective since ICE’s core operations are protected by the prior bill.  The House has already passed the DHS bill with some Democratic support, putting pressure on the Senate. Republicans are framing this as Democrats prioritizing protests over essential services, giving the GOP leverage in negotiations.    https://twitter.com/AwakenedOutlaw/status/2015946190219837842?s=20   themselves, and engage in thoughtful discourse and/or express outrage against the wholesale ridiculousness of not allowing the government to do its job and protect us…and they do so for months on matters that most would never have otherwise engaged in AND would otherwise slip out of the news cycle quickly.    The Supreme Court ends up taking the case and rules (correctly) in favor of his administration. Piece by piece through this process, legal precedence is secured. Which, as it turns out, was deemed necessary to help secure the future of our Republic writ large. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. This implies that we are directly involved in an educational process, if you will, as we all progress through the realignment. Advantage: America’s future https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/2015932965528764622?s=20   violent agitators. The DOJ went to court. We got a temporary stay. NOW, the 8th Circuit has fully agreed that this reckless attempt to undermine law enforcement cannot stand. 8th Circuit Court of Appeals rules in favor of Trump admin allowing ICE agents to arrest, detain, pepper-spray or retaliate against violent anti-ICE rioters, in Minneapolis, without probable cause   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Though Wisconsin hasn't been faced with the major ICE raids as we've seen in LA, Chicago, and Minneapolis, there is growing concern that ICE will arrive in Wisconsin. Governor Evers said this week that the state is preparing for this inevitability. To talk about ICE raids and the larger context of anti-immigrant sentiment in the US, host Allen Ruff is joined by Armando Ibarra.  Ibarra works with Voces de la Frontera, an organization with deep roots in Wisconsin. Founded in 1994, the organization responded to the displacement of people from NAFTA. Over the years Voces has helped more than 16,500 families create “family disruption plans” and has held “know your rights” sessions for more than 30,000 people across Wisconsin. Voces de la Frontera will be holding its annual assembly this weekend. Ibarra also discusses the US as a land of immigrants in a land of anti-immigrants, from colonization,  Westward expansion, and the Chinese Exclusion Act, to the present. Ibarra says that the US is no longer pretending not to be an empire, as we've seen with the Trump  administration's aggression in Latin America.  They also discuss the Supreme Court ruling that legitimizes racial profiling, the reframing of protest as “domestic terrorism,” the rise of state-sanctioned violence against immigrants, and the 287(g) programs that deputize local law enforcement to act as immigration agents. Voces organizes a 24-7 emergency ICE hotline at 1-800-427-0213. Armando Ibarra is a Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor in the School for Workers. He's the co-author of the award winning book, The Latino Question: Politics, Labouring Classes and the Next Left. Featured image of the mural “Labor Solidarity has no Borders” (1992) by Mike Alewitz via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0). Did you enjoy this story? Your funding makes great, local journalism like this possible. Donate hereThe post A Land of Immigrants or a Land of Anti-Immigrants? appeared first on WORT-FM 89.9.

It was an honor to welcome David MacNaughton, Strategic Advisor at CIBC and former Canadian Ambassador to the United States. David joined CIBC earlier in January (press release linked here) and will provide insights to senior business leaders across public policy, regulatory developments, global trade, and stakeholder relations. David served as Canada's Ambassador to the U.S. from 2016 to 2019, a pivotal period that included the renegotiation of NAFTA. Earlier in his career, David served as Chairman of StrategyCorp and as a Senior Advisor to CIBC Capital Markets, and he previously served as President of Palantir Canada. He is a seasoned entrepreneur and political strategist, having founded and built multiple public affairs and advisory firms. We were thrilled to host David ahead of CIBC's Annual Institutional Investor Conference taking place this week in Whistler and to hear his perspective on the evolving dynamics shaping the U.S.-Canada relationship. In our conversation, we discuss David's experience spanning business and government, the highly dynamic geopolitical environment, the need for renewed public-private collaboration, and why politics feel increasingly interventionist today, with populist pressure pushing governments toward protectionism and isolationism. We explore the implications of AI-driven white-collar job disruption, why businesses must treat geopolitics and public policy as core risk drivers, Canada's role in AI innovation and adoption, and how Canada is rebalancing its resource economy amid global energy and trade shifts. David shares his perspective on Canada's prior reluctance to embrace LNG exports and its renewed push to be an “energy superpower,” how to interpret volatility from the Trump Administration, and how tariffs have strained, but not broken, the U.S.-Canada relationship, highlighting the importance of the integrated North American energy system and the need for Canada to diversify markets. We discuss how David's Strategic Advisor role will help clients think about using government support appropriately, his cautious optimism on recent geopolitical shifts, and why maintaining dialogue among allies matters, as misinterpretation and retreating into corners can quickly spiral into escalation. It was a broad-based discussion and we're thankful to David for sharing his time and unique insights. Mike Bradley opened the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield had spiked to ~4.3% amid concerns that Europeans could sell U.S. Treasuries in response to President Trump's Greenland overtures, as well as growing questions about what a spike in Japanese bond yields might mean for global bond yields. Consensus appears firmly in the camp that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the January 28 FOMC meeting. In the broader equity market, the S&P 500 was down modestly (~0.5%) over the last week, with cyclical sectors (Energy and Industrials) leading and Financials lagging. In energy commodities, WTI price appears to have stabilized at ~$60/bbl. U.S. natural gas price recently spiked ~$0.80/MMBtu (to ~$4.00/MMBtu) due to an Arctic blast forecast in the weeks ahead. On the energy news front, Q4 earnings season begins this week with Halliburton and SLB reporting. Discussion on those calls is likely to be dominated by 1H26 international oil spending trends. Mike also noted Mitsubishi Corp's $5.2 billion deal to acquire Aethon Energy, and his expectation for many more deals across the energy value chain in 2026. He ended by highlighting that President Trump, along with a handful of Northeast governors, are asking PJM Interconnection to hold an emergency energy auction that would allow Big Tech companies to bid on 15-year contracts to supply ~$15 billion of new power plants. IPP equities were the most negatively impacted by this proposal late last week.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump placed tariffs on many nations, the Asian nation exports are surging, even with the tariffs. More money for the people. Fuel prices are below $2 in many states. Trump has cut 646 regulations.Trump is using the Jacksonian Pivot to bring down the [CB] and go back to the constitution. The [DS] is losing it money laundering system. They are having a difficult time funding their operations. Trump is continually putting the squeeze on the [DS] and each nation run by dictators is going to fall one by one. Trump gave the [DS] 8 months to comply with his EO. He brought the NG into their states, they forced them out. He gave them a chance but they decided to escalate the situation. Next move is POTUS. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2008258196322856968?s=20   all-time high. This is despite US tariffs which were initially set at to 49%, but later negotiated down to ~20%. At the same time, Chinese exports to the US plunged -40% YoY in Q3 2025. This comes as the region has a massive cost advantage over US and European manufacturing, which ranges from 20% to 100%, even after tariffs. Companies use Southeast Asian economies as alternative export bases to avoid China’s 37% reciprocal tariff. As a result, the amount of trade rerouting from China hit a record $23.7 billion in September. US trade flows are shifting sharply amid tariffs. https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/2008327708200104042?s=20 https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2008516399564509382?s=20  https://twitter.com/DrJStrategy/status/2008306299235189133?s=20   and a decisive shift of policy emphasis toward productive capital and economic sovereignty rather than financial engineering, Trump has reoriented the engines of growth toward productive capital, investment, industry, and national capacity. Anchored by the Trump Corollary, asserting a sovereign, American‑led Western Hemisphere and demonstrated in both the flawless military operation in Venezuela and the broader regime‑pressure strategy, this doctrine is not theater but an integrated fusion of economic, security, and hemispheric power. These changes are as profound in their structural implications as the original Jacksonian pivot, and those who assume Trump is a merely performative politician and strategist are therefore sorely mistaken, confusing a disruptive style with a coherent focused project to realign America's coalition, its economic model, and its role in the world. Political/Rights https://twitter.com/KatieMiller/status/2008286018722562351?s=20 https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/2008263492030349618?s=20 Hilton Axes Hotel From Their Systems After Video Shows Them Continuing to Ban DHS and ICE Agents  https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/2008497245826556404?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008497245826556404%7Ctwgr%5E65c50b3797a2e502ba8c026a05c290955554706a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2026%2F01%2F06%2Fhilton-axes-hotel-from-their-systems-after-video-shows-them-continuing-to-ban-dhs-and-ice-agents-n2197811 Less than two hours after the video had been uploaded to X, Hilton issued another statement saying they were dropping that particular hotel from their list of franchisees and accusing ownership of lying to them about making corrections to their policy. https://twitter.com/HiltonNewsroom/status/2008522493171298503?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008522493171298503%7Ctwgr%5E65c50b3797a2e502ba8c026a05c290955554706a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2026%2F01%2F06%2Fhilton-axes-hotel-from-their-systems-after-video-shows-them-continuing-to-ban-dhs-and-ice-agents-n2197811 Source: redstate.com https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2008256013162410201?s=20   mandatory detention without bond hearings. Judges opposing the move admitted the goal is to promote self-deportation rather than extended courtroom battles. Conservatives say the numbers reveal a coordinated judicial campaign to override Trump’s immigration policy. SCOTUS has yet to rule on the matter. DOGE Corporation for Public Broadcasting Board Votes to Dissolve Organization in Act of Responsible Stewardship to Protect the Future of Public Media   The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), the private, nonprofit corporation created by Congress to steward the federal government's investment in public broadcasting, announced today that its Board of Directors has voted to dissolve the organization after 58 years of service to the American public. The decision follows Congress's rescission of all of CPB's federal funding and comes after sustained political attacks that made it impossible for CPB to continue operating as the Public Broadcasting Act intended. Source:  cpb.org Geopolitical https://twitter.com/Object_Zero_/status/2008524560891588691?s=20   flight path (ballistic or powered) from Kola to anywhere on the lower 48, then everything goes over Greenland. Greenland is the theatre where any strategic exchange between Washington and Moscow is contested. If you want to intercept a ballistic missile, the best point to do so is at the apogee, at the top of the flight path. The shortest route for an interceptor to get to an apogee is from directly below the apogee. That's where Greenland is. So, without stating what should happen here, this is **why** the Trump administration says they **need** Greenland for national security. The other thing that is happening is that the Northern Passage through the Arctic is opening up, and soon there will be Chinese cargo ships sailing through the Arctic to Rotterdam. It's faster than the Suez and the ships aren't limited to Suezmax size so China and EU trade is going to accelerate a lot. This means Chinese submarines will also be venturing under the Arctic into the Northern Atlantic, IF THEY AREN'T ALREADY DOING SO. Hence, the North East coast of Greenland serves not 1 but 2 critical strategic security objectives of US national security. If this wasn't clear to you, please understand that the Mercator global map projection is for children and journalists only. It is not a useful guide to where any countries or territories actually are in the real world that we live in. No self respecting adult should be using Mercator for their worldview. Anyone saying “there must be some other secret reason for Trump being interested in Greenland” is a certified ignoramus. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2008414070425206927?s=20  permission from the Ministry of Defense. “We want to clarify that what happened in downtown Caracas was because some drones flew over without permission and the police fired dissuasive shots. No confrontation took place. The whole country is in total tranquility,” said a Spokesman for the Information Ministry. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2008420269480694261?s=20  Miraflores Presidential Palace.   Seems like a failed coup attempt https://twitter.com/jackprandelli/status/2008298246675021881?s=20   offshore oil, creating a massive geopolitical risk. The most immediate outcome in capture of Maduro is to neutralize this threat and secure the operating companies stakes in Guyana, as well as Western Hemisphere’s energy security. By stabilizing Guyana’s production, which is set to hit 1.7 million barrels per day, the intervention guarantees way more oil flow in near term than reviving Venezuela’s aged infrastructure and heavy sour oil. This move protects billions in U.S. investment and positions Guyana producers as the ultimate winners. https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2008448254095012088?s=20 https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2008591197728813564?s=20  Mass Protests Enter 9th Straight Day in Iran — Regime Accused of Killing Young Woman and Multiple Peaceful Protesters as Officials Deny Responsibility — Brave 11-Year-Old Iranian Boy Calls on Nation: “Take to the Streets! We Have Nothing to Lose!” (VIDEO)  Protests against Iran's murderous Islamic regime continued across the country for a ninth straight day over the weekend, as nationwide unrest intensifies and the government struggles to maintain control. Demonstrations have now spread to multiple cities throughout Iran, with citizens openly defying the Islamic Republic and targeting its symbols of power. The latest wave of protests was initially sparked by the collapse of Iran's currency, further devastating an already-crippled economy and pushing ordinary Iranians to the brink. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2008537318035173629?s=20 https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2008532051331526713?s=20 https://twitter.com/infantrydort/status/2008501122902774238?s=20   when reminded that teeth still exist. They insist the world runs on rules now and that borders are sacred. Also that true power has been replaced by paperwork. This belief is not moral in the least. It's f*****g archaeological. They live inside institutions built by violence, defended by men they no longer understand, and guaranteed by forces they refuse to acknowledge. Like tourists wandering a fortress, they admire the stonework while mocking the idea of a siege. They confuse order with nature. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Then blame the person that reminds them of this. Civilization is not the default state of humanity. It is an achievement that is temporary, fragile, and expensive. It exists only where force once cleared the ground and still quietly patrols the perimeter. A lion does not debate the ethics of hunger. Neither does a starving empire. History is not a morality play, it is a pressure test. When pressure rises, abstractions collapse first. Laws follow power; they do NOT precede it. Property exists only where someone can prevent it from being taken. Sovereignty is not declared, it is enforced. The modern West outsourced this enforcement, then forgot the invoice existed. So when someone points out uncomfortable realities (whether about Greenland, Venezuela, or the broader balance of power) they respond with ritual incantations: “You can't do that.” “That's wrong.” “That's against the rules.” As if the rules themselves are armed. As if history paused because we asked nicely. This is how empires fall. Not from invasion alone, but from conceptual rot. From mistaking a long season of safety for a permanent condition. From believing lethality is immoral instead of foundational. Every civilization that forgot how violence works eventually relearned it the hard way. The conquerors did not arrive because they were monsters; they arrived because their victims could no longer imagine them. The tragedy is not that power still exists. The tragedy is that so many have forgotten it does. Idk who needs to hear this but civilization is a garden grown atop a graveyard. Ignore the soil, and someone else will plant something far less gentle. Hate me for being the messenger and asking the hard questions about conquest if you want. You're just wasting your time. War/Peace Zelenskyy Announces the Appointment of Former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland as Economic Advisor  Chrystia Freeland was the former lead of the Canadian trade delegation when Trudeau realized he needed to try and offset the economic damage within the renegotiated NAFTA agreement known as the USMCA. Freeland was also the lead attack agent behind the debanking effort against Canadian truckers who opposed the vaccine mandate. In addition to holding Ukraine roots, the ideology of Chrystia Freeland as a multinational globalist and promoter for the World Economic Forum's ‘new world order' is well documented.    given the recent revelations about billions of laundered aid funds being skimmed by corrupt members of the Ukraine government, we can only imagine how much of the recovery funds would be apportioned to maintaining the life of indulgence the political leaders expect. In response to the lucrative “voluntary” appointment, Chrystia Freeland has announced her resignation from Canadian government in order to avoid any conflict of interest as the skimming is organized. Source: theconservativetreehouse.com https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2008618653500273072?s=20 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/2008610869924757613?s=20 this aligns with Trump’s stated approach, where Europe takes a leading role in postwar security but with American support to ensure durability—such as the proposed 15-year (or potentially longer) guarantees discussed in recent talks. The “Coalition of the Willing” (including the UK, France, Germany, and others) is coordinating these pledges to reassure Kyiv, but the framework explicitly ties into U.S.-backed elements like ceasefire verification and long-term armaments.  Russia has not yet shown willingness to compromise on core demands, so the deal’s success remains uncertain, but this step advances the security pillar of the overall plan. Medical/False Flags https://twitter.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/2008435766742179996?s=20    dangerous diseases. Parents can still choose to give their children all of the Vaccinations, if they wish, and they will still be covered by insurance. However, this updated Schedule finally aligns the United States with other Developed Nations around the World. Congratulations to HHS Secretary Bobby Kennedy, CDC Acting Director Jim O'Neil, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, CMS Administrator Dr. Oz, NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya, and all of the Medical Experts and Professionals who worked very hard to make this happen. Many Americans, especially the “MAHA Moms,” have been praying for these COMMON SENSE reforms for many years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2008416829404746084?s=20  https://twitter.com/WeTheMedia17/status/2008558203077095579?s=20 President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/2008278499153637883?s=20   who tried to kill Justice Kavanaugh at his family home in Maryland. Read: https://twitter.com/mirandadevine/status/2008312587197497804?s=20 https://twitter.com/PubliusDefectus/status/2008542355838955625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008542355838955625%7Ctwgr%5E08a8ea4b3726984aaeb1e460fafe90ec5a25b84f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fhillary-clinton-launches-attack-trump-january-6%2F Developing: Lt. Michael Byrd Who Shot Ashli Babbitt Dead on Jan. 6, 2021 in Cold Blood, Runs an ‘Unaccredited' Day-Care Center in Maryland at His Home and Has Pocketed $190 Million in HHS Funds   Captain Michael Byrd and his home daycare in Maryland. In one of his autopen's last acts before Joe Biden left office was to pardon Capt. Mike Byrd, the DC officer who shot and killed January 6 protester Ashli Babbitt in cold blood during the protests on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021.  Paul Sperry discovered recently and posted on Tuesday that Former Lt., now Captain Mike Byrd, has been running an unaccredited day-care center with his wife in their Maryland home since 2008. That is nearly 17 years! The Byrds have received $190 million in this HHS day-care scheme. Via Paul Sperry. Via Karli Bonne at Midnight Rider: https://twitter.com/PattieRose20/status/2008547480431218991?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008547480431218991%7Ctwgr%5Ec607b3d9ed0b3fbdb6e390fdfadc416d9a45a379%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F%3Fp%3D1506321 Source: thegatewaypundit.com The White House has published a page revealing the full TRUE story of January 6 — before, during, and after. It includes: – Video and evidence showing Nancy Pelosi's involvement – A complete, detailed timeline of events – A tribute to those who died on or because of J6 A full investigation into Nancy Pelosi and everyone involved is now essential. You can view the page here: https://whitehouse.gov/j6/  https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/2008569594550895005?s=20 EKO Put This Out April 28, 2025. President Trump signs Executive Order 14287 in the Oval Office. The title reads like standard bureaucracy: “Protecting American Communities from Criminal Aliens.” But in the third paragraph, a single phrase changes everything: Sanctuary jurisdictions are engaging in “a lawless insurrection against the supremacy of Federal law.” Insurrection. The exact statutory term from 10 U.S.C. §§ 332-333 . The language that unlocks the Insurrection Act of 1807. Georgetown Law professor Martin Lederman publishes analysis within days. The executive order mirrors Section 334 requirements. The formal proclamation to disperse before military deployment. It designates unlawful actors, issues formal warning, establishes consequences. Governors dismiss it as political theater. Constitutional attorneys recognize something else. The proclamation was already issued. Trump just didn't announce it as such. THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK January 20, 2025. Inauguration Day. Hours after taking the oath, Trump issues Proclamation 10886 declaring a national emergency at the southern border. Section 6(b) requires a joint report within 90 days on whether to invoke the Insurrection Act. The deadline falls April 20, 2025. Eight days later comes Executive Order 14287 . National emergency declaration establishes crisis conditions. The 90-day clock forces formal evaluation. The executive order provides the legal predicate. Section 334 of the Insurrection Act mandates the president issue a proclamation ordering insurgents to disperse before deploying military force. April 28 order satisfies every requirement. It names the actors. Describes their unlawful conduct. Warns of consequences. Grants opportunity to comply. Governors treated it as negotiation leverage. It was legal notification. The trap locked in April 2025. Everything since has been documentation. THE TESTING PHASE Throughout 2025, the administration attempts standard enforcement. National Guard deployments under existing authority. October 4, 2025 . Trump federalizes 300 Illinois National Guard members to protect ICE personnel in Chicago. Governor J.B. Pritzker files immediate legal challenge. Federal courts block the deployment. Posse Comitatus restricts military involvement in domestic law enforcement. November 2025 . Portland judge issues permanent injunction against Guard deployment in Oregon. December 23, 2025 . The Supreme Court denies emergency relief in Trump v. Illinois. Justice Kavanaugh files a brief concurrence with a consequential footnote: “One apparent ramification of the Court's opinion is that it could cause the President to use the U.S. military more than the National Guard.” Northwestern Law professor Paul Gowder decodes the signal : “This is basically an invitation for Trump to go straight to the Insurrection Act next time.” The courts established ordinary measures cannot succeed when states organize systematic resistance. They certified that regular law enforcement has become impracticable. They documented the exact threshold Section 332 requires. The founders designed a system that assumed conflict between federal and state authority. For decades, that friction was suppressed. Emergency powers normalized after 9/11, federal agencies expanded into state domains, courts deferred to administrative expertise. The Guard deployment battles weren't system failure. They were constitutional gravity reasserting itself. Courts blocking deployments under Posse Comitatus didn't weaken Trump's position. They certified that ordinary measures had become impracticable, crossing Section 332's threshold. December 31, 2025 . Trump announces Guard withdrawal from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland via Truth Social. Governor Newsom celebrates: “President Trump has finally admitted defeat.” But the machine's interpretation misreads strategic repositioning as retreat. You cannot claim ordinary measures have been exhausted if contested forces remain deployed. Pull back. Let obstruction resume unchecked. Document the refusal. Then demonstrate what unilateral executive action looks like when constitutional authority aligns. THE DEMONSTRATION Trump v. United States . THE HIDDEN NETWORKS Intelligence sources describe what the roundups since fall 2025 actually target. Embedded cartel operatives running fentanyl distribution chains under state-level protection. The riots following military arrests aren't organic resistance. They're funded backlash from criminal enterprises losing billions. Pre-staged materials appear at protest sites. Simultaneous actions coordinate across jurisdictions. The coordination runs deeper. Federal employee networks across multiple agencies held Zoom training sessions in early 2025. Officials with verified government IDs discussed “non-cooperation as non-violent direct action,” the 3.5% rule for governmental collapse, and infrastructure sabotage through coordinated sick calls. They planned to make federal law enforcement impracticable. The exact language Section 332 requires. Sanctuary policies exist because cartel operations generate billions flowing through state systems. Governors sit on nonprofit boards receiving federal grants. Those nonprofits contract back to state agencies, cycling federal dollars through “charitable” organizations. Cartel cash launders through these same construction and real estate networks. When Trump's operations extract high-value targets, they disrupt the business model. The Machine defends itself through coordinated obstruction designed to make federal enforcement impracticable. This transcends immigration policy. This tests whether states can capture governance for criminal enterprises and nullify federal supremacy. THE LINCOLN PARALLEL Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation confounded supporters and critics alike. Abolitionists expected moral thunder. Instead they received dry legalese about “military necessity” and “war powers.” The document deliberately avoided the word “freedom.” It specified which states, parishes, counties. It exempted border states still in the Union. Constitutional historians recognize the genius. Lincoln wasn't making a moral proclamation. He was establishing irreversible legal predicate under war powers. Once issued, even Northern defeat couldn't fully restore slavery. The proclamation made restoration of the old order structurally impossible. Trump's April 28 order follows identical construction. Critics expected immigration rhetoric. Instead: technical language about “unlawful insurrection” and “federal supremacy.” Specified sanctuary jurisdictions, formal notification procedures, funding suspensions. Avoided inflammatory language. Constitutional attorneys recognize the structure. Irreversible legal predicate under insurrection powers. Even political defeat cannot fully restore sanctuary authority. States would have to prove they're not in systematic insurrection. Both presidents disguised constitutional warfare as administrative procedure. THE COMPLETE RECORD When you review the eight-month timeline you recognize what most ‘experts' miss. The April 28 EO satisfied every Section 334 requirement. It designated sanctuary conduct as insurrection. It provided formal notification. It established consequences. It granted eight months to comply. Compliance never arrived. California and New York passed laws shielding criminal networks. Illinois officials threatened to prosecute ICE agents. Multiple states coordinated legal defenses against federal authority. Courts blocked every standard enforcement attempt. They certified that ordinary measures have become impracticable. Every statutory requirement checks complete: Formal proclamation warning insurgents to disperse: April 28, 2025 Executive Order 14287 Extended opportunity to comply: Eight months from April to December 2025 Documented systematic multi-state obstruction: Sanctuary laws, prosecution threats, coordinated resistance Exhausted ordinary enforcement measures: Guard deployments blocked by federal courts Judicial certification of impracticability: Supreme Court ruling with Kavanaugh footnote The legal architecture stands finished. The predicate has been established. Only the final triggering event remains. Thomas Jefferson signed the Insurrection Act into law on March 3, 1807 . He understood executive authority: forge the instrument ahead of the storm, then await the conditions that justify its use. Abraham Lincoln used it to preserve the Union when eleven states organized systematic resistance. Ulysses S. Grant invoked it to shatter the Ku Klux Klan when Southern governments refused to protect Black citizens. Dwight Eisenhower deployed federal troops to enforce Brown v. Board when Arkansas chose defiance. Each invocation followed the same pattern. Local authorities refuse to enforce federal law. The president issues formal proclamation. Forces deploy when resistance continues. The current situation exceeds every historical precedent in scale and coordination. Multiple state governments coordinating systematic obstruction. Sanctuary jurisdictions spanning dozens of cities. Criminal enterprises funding the resistance through captured state institutions. The April proclamation gave them eight months to stand down. They chose escalation. THE COUNTDOWN The January 4 statement confirms what the legal timeline already established. Prerequisites met. Constitutional threshold crossed and judicially certified. The operational timeline is active. The next escalation triggers the formal dispersal order. Section 334 requires the president issue proclamation ordering insurgents to “disperse and retire peaceably to their abodes” before deploying military force. That's the legal tripwire. Once issued, if obstruction persists after the compliance window closes, federal troops can enforce federal law. Active duty forces under the Insurrection Act. Constitutional. Unreviewable. The forces won't conduct door-to-door immigration raids. They'll provide security perimeters while federal law enforcement executes targeted operations against high-value assets. Operatives. Trafficking nodes. Criminal infrastructure. Targeting oath-bound officials elected and appointed, as well as federal employees who swore to uphold federal law and chose insurrection instead. THE RESTORATION Sanctuary jurisdictions received explicit insurrection warnings last spring. More than half a year to comply. Every olive branch rejected. Courts blocked ordinary enforcement repeatedly, certifying impracticability. The Venezuela op demonstrated unilateral resolve. Yesterday's statement activated the operational sequence. Pattern recognized. Machine is exposed. Evidence is complete. What remains is execution. They're just waiting to hear it tick. The most powerful weapon restrains until every prerequisite aligns. Until mercy extends fully and meets systematic rejection. Until the constitutional framework demands its use. Every prerequisite has aligned. Mercy has been extended and rejected. The framework demands its use. Revolution destroys. Reversion restores. The Emancipation Proclamation freed slaves. The Insurrection Proclamation frees a republic.  https://twitter.com/EkoLovesYou/status/2008304655156342936?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2008597603412308341?s=20 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");