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Brazil's election results were much tighter than many predicted and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 30. Although Lula is still a slight favorite, Bolsonaro has received key endorsements and bolsonarismo showed its strength, winning majorities in the House and the Senate as well as key governorships. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economist, about what explains the results and what we can expect from the campaign moving forward.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro was elected promising huge reforms. But since taking office, he has given mixed signals regarding how far, and how fast, his government might change Colombia's economy, society and role in the world. Will the country's class structure be significantly altered? Will there be a shift in drug policy? Will Colombia drop oil and coal from its energy matrix? And how much support do his proposals have? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Ricardo Ávila, senior analyst for the newspaper El Tiempo, takes stock of Petro's first months as head of state and assesses how transformative his presidency could be.

As the dust begins to settle on Chileans' emphatic rejection of their proposed new constitution, the political class has started negotiations for a new process. What provisions is the new charter likely to contain? Who might write it? Where does the rejection leave the young leftist president Gabriel Boric, and what will happen to Chile's troubled economy amid such uncertainty? Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Adolfo Ibáñez University, answers these and other questions on this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Brazil's election is now entering its final stage, and President Jair Bolsonaro is consistently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If the trend prevails, will Bolsonaro concede? Many in Brazil think he will not. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, veteran political analyst Thomas Traumman examines the final weeks of the campaign and what could happen next. He discusses the latest poll numbers, Bolsonaro's narrowing options for victory, the crucial roles of gender and religion in the race, as well as what to expect from the military if Bolsonaro contests the results.

There is an unmistakable trend in Latin American politics today: the left is in charge in some of the region's largest countries — Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Brazil, the biggest economy, could soon join this cohort if former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the October election. This in many ways recalls the original pink tide of the 2000s. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel discusses what he expects from this new wave of leaders and what they represent for the region's major economies and diplomatic relationships. He also gives his assessment of the presidential campaign in Brazil and what a Lula victory could mean for the region and for the new pink tide.

It has surprised many that there have been more disagreements between the US and Mexico under a Democratic presidency than under a Republican one. What explains this? Is the relationship, so critical to both countries, at risk of a genuine deterioration? What can we expect from Andrés Manuel López Obrador as he tries to navigate a weakened economy, rising violence and the upcoming 2024 elections? Professor, political analyst, writer and activist Denise Dresser takes on these and others questions in this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Colombia's Gustavo Petro will take office on August 7 with a lot on his plate. The country's first ever leftist president has promised substantial reforms to Colombia's economy and society. Polls show Colombians are optimistic and expectations are high. How much will it be possible to achieve? How pragmatic will a Petro government be and what are his odds of success? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly podcast, journalist Mariana Palau discusses the incoming government's situation in Congress, as well as plans for the economy and peace in Colombia. Palau is a reporter with BluRadio and a Master of Public Policy candidate at Oxford University's Blavatnik School of Government.

The surprise resignation of Argentina's economy minister has raised concerns of an even deeper political and economic crisis. Where is the country headed? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, María Esperanza Casullo, a political scientist and professor at the National University of Río Negro, explores what is behind the resignation, what can be expected from the new minister and from next year's presidential election, as well as why Argentina is not ripe for “outsider” candidates like much of the western world.

Across Latin America, talk is turning to the possibility of a global recession. How vulnerable is the region, and which countries might do better than others? In this AQ Podcast, Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup, gives us an overview of the region's economies, challenges like inflation and rising interest rates, and what the impact might be on politics, especially in countries with new governments like Colombia, Chile and Peru.

Colombia's June 19 runoff between two strongly anti-establishment candidates tells us a lot about what's happening in today's Latin America, says Luis Alberto Moreno, a veteran observer of the region's politics and former president of the Inter-American Development Bank. In this conversation, Moreno takes a long view of political developments, analyzing recent progress and setbacks. He discusses populism, inequality, economic growth and challenges to cooperation and trade between Latin American countries. Moreno does nevertheless have a glass-half-full perspective on the region, as outlined in a recent book. Moreno shares with the AQ podcast his reasons for optimism.

A modest degree of change appears to be underway in Venezuela. There are signs that a years-long economic crisis may finally have bottomed out. And the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro looks set to return to negotiations with opposition leaders after calling off talks last October. How much if any hope should these developments generate for a potential political and economic opening? What do they mean for Venezuela's relationships with the U.S. and other international actors? And what's the long game for chavismo as Maduro's government faces pressure at home and abroad? Raúl Stolk, director of the news site Caracas Chronicles, joins the AQ podcast for an in-depth conversation on Venezuela's future.

In the past year Haiti has lived through the assassination of a president, multiple natural disasters and an exodus of people. Now, a simmering political crisis has put pressure on the country's leadership and raised questions about how it will chart a path toward new elections. What role should the international community play in helping Haiti find a way forward? What are the limitations of U.S. involvement? Monique Clesca, a journalist and member of the Commission to Search for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis, joins the AQ Podcast to provide an overview of where the country stands today.

Despite a host of challenges, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro appears to be in a stronger position to win re-election in October than many expected. Though still trailing in polls to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro has started to close the gap in recent weeks. What's behind this shift, and how might Lula respond as the campaign progresses? Joining the AQ podcast is Fábio Zanini, a columnist at Folha de S. Paulo who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power.

It's shaping up as another difficult year in Latin America for freedom of the press, judicial independence and separation of powers. From El Salvador to Peru to Mexico and beyond, fundamental rights are under pressure. What's behind the backsliding, and what can be done to push the region's democracies in the right direction? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, acting Americas director at Human Rights Watch, joins the AQ podcast for a tour of trouble spots around the region.

Gustavo Petro is polling well in the run-up to Colombia's first-round presidential election on May 29. But recent events suggest the former mayor of Bogotá might struggle to bring more moderate voters to his side. What concessions is he willing to make to build bridges to the center and center-left? And which of his competitors is best positioned to close the gap in the weeks ahead? Joining the AQ podcast this week to offer an unvarnished look at the race and how the frontrunners might govern is Miguel Silva, the founder of Galileo 6, a strategic communications, political and crisis management firm based in Bogotá, Colombia.

Expectations are sky-high in Chile following Gabriel Boric's inauguration as president on March 11. But challenges abound, from tensions with Mapuche indigenous groups and anti-immigrant protests to the uncertain impact of rising commodities prices. All this as the country rewrites its constitution – a messy process with the potential to upend public policy and politics. How will Chile's young leader navigate these obstacles? Isabel Aninat, dean of the law school at Adolfo Ibáñez University, joins the AQ podcast to offer her realistic expectations for Boric's first months in office.

The war in Ukraine has become a litmus test for how governments in Latin America view the changing global order. How is Washington positioning itself as the region's preferred partner for development and economic growth? How have the Biden administration's relationships with countries like Mexico, Brazil and El Salvador evolved since taking office last year? Ahead of June's Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, the White House's top aide on Latin America, Juan Gonzalez, joins the AQ podcast for a special extended edition. Guests: Juan Gonzalez is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council. Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief Supplemental reading How Biden Can Get the Summit of the Americas Right by Oliver Stuenkel (https://americasquarterly.org/article/how-biden-can-get-the-summit-of-the-americas-right) Latin America Looks East by Brian Winter (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2022-02-24/latin-america-looks-east)

Entering the second half of his six-year term, Andrés Manuel López Obrador's presidency has taken a contentious turn. What's behind the Mexican president's recent war of words with the media and other critics? Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. and career diplomat for more than 20 years, joins AQ to discuss the key issues driving Mexico's current political debate. Guests: Arturo Sarukhan is an international consultant based in Washington, D.C. A board member of the Americas Society, he is the former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. (2007-13) and a career diplomat for more than 20 years. He served as Mexican consul general in New York and chief of policy planning at the Mexican foreign ministry, among other posts. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental reading: Mexico's Energy Reform: 3 Risks to Investors by Ana Lilia Moreno (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/mexicos-energy-reform-3-risks-to-investors)

Students in Latin America missed more school because of the pandemic than any other part of the world. What will this mean for the region's long-term prosperity? Fernando Reimers, a professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Education and co-editor of Learning to Build Better Futures for Education, joins AQ to discuss the toll COVID has taken on Latin American education – and what businesses, policymakers and educators can do to avoid another "lost decade."

It's been six months since Pedro Castillo was sworn in as Peru's president. But despite the threat of impeachment and a crisis in the mining sector, he has yet to offer a clear view of how he wants to govern. Andrea Moncada, a Peruvian journalist, analyst and contributing columnist to AQ, joins the podcast to examine Castillo's political isolation and uncomfortable relationship with power thus far. Guests: Andrea Moncada, a contributing columnist to Americas Quarterly, is a Peruvian journalist and political analyst currently based in the UK. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental reading: Pedro Castillo Isn't Out of Danger by Andrea Moncada (https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-reprieve-not-a-release-for-pedro-castillo/)

Latin America's transition away from oil and gas is well underway, with green energy investments bearing fruit in countries including Colombia, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. The region has a chance to be a leader, although unpredictable politics and this year's elections may get in the way, energy analyst Luisa Palacios says. Guests: -Luisa Palacios is a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental reading: "The Huge Risk Facing Latin American Oil Companies" by Luisa Palacios and Francisco Monaldi (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-huge-risk-facing-latin-american-oil-companies/)

Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are early favorites in Brazil's presidential election next October. Can a "third way" candidate defy expectations, or is the country headed for a showdown between two divisive figures? Thomas Traumann, a journalist and consultant, joins AQ to look at the contenders' strategies – and whether any of them can end Brazil's decade-long malaise. Guests: Thomas Traumann is a journalist and independent consultant, and was Brazil's communications minister from 2014-2015 Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief Supplemental reading: Lula Is Back. But Which Lula? by Thomas Traumann (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/lula-is-back-but-which-lula) Why Lula vs. Bolsonaro Leaves Little Room for Others by Oliver Stuenkel (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-lula-vs-bolsonaro-in-brazil-leaves-little-room-for-others) Have Brazilians Given Up on Bolsonaro? by Brian Winter (https://americasquarterly.org/article/has-bolsonaro-suffered-his-hurricane-katrina-moment)

Many Latin American economies bounced back strongly this year. Still, 2022 is likely to provide a reality check, says economist Alberto Ramos in this “from 30,000 feet” survey of what to expect. The outcome will have consequences for elections in Brazil and Colombia, as well as social stability everywhere. Guests: Alberto Ramos is the chief economist for Latin America at Goldman Sachs Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief. Supplemental Reading: "Could the U.S. and China Spoil Latin America's Rebound?," by Otaviano Canuto (https://americasquarterly.org/article/could-the-u-s-and-china-spoil-latin-americas-rebound/)

After jailing his opponents, Daniel Ortega won an election on November 7, extending his hold on power. On this episode, Nicaraguan journalist María Lilly Delgado weighs in on what's next for independent voices like herself in a consolidating dictatorship. Former Panamanian Vice President Isabel Saint Malo also joins the episode with a message for the international community. Guests: María Lilly Delgado is an independent journalist and co-founder of the Huellas de la Impunidad journalistic project. Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado is the former vice president and foreign affairs minister of Panama and a member of AQ's editorial board. Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief. Supplemental reading: "Nicaragua's Sham Election Is Over. What Should the World Do Now?" by Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado (https://americasquarterly.org/article/nicaraguas-sham-election-is-over-what-should-the-world-do-now/) "Another 5 Years for Daniel Ortega?" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/another-5-years-for-daniel-ortega/)

Fake news is a problem everywhere. But many believe Brazil will be the epicenter in 2022, as President Jair Bolsonaro, facing a difficult reelection bid, is determined to protect his supporters' “freedom of speech.” This week, Brazilian fact-checker Cristina Tardáguila breaks down how Brazil became a fake news hotbed - and looks for reasons for optimism. Guests: Cristina Tardáguila is senior program director at the International Center for Journalists. She founded Brazil's first and largest fact-checking agency, Agência Lupa. Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief Supplemental Reading: "Inside Brazil's Dangerous Battle Over Fake News," by Mariana Palau (https://americasquarterly.org/article/inside-brazils-dangerous-battle-over-fake-news/)

With a month to go before the November 14 vote, Argentina's legislative election has already turned the ruling coalition upside down and thrown a wrench into ongoing talks with the IMF. What is the government's strategy? And what should investors know about the election? Bloomberg's Carolina Millán joins the podcast to break down the stakes of the election. Guests: Carolina Millán is the Buenos Aires bureau chief for Bloomberg Brendan O'Boyle is the senior editor of Americas Quarterly

Optimism can feel like it's in short supply in Colombia. An IPSOS poll in September found that 89% of Colombians believed the country was “on the wrong track” – more than any other country polled. As elections approach next year, there are fears the discontent may empower more radical options. In his new book, and in his latest column for AQ, former finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas offers some ideas on how to channel desire for change in a constructive way, while weighing in on some of the major issues shaping the country today. Guests: Mauricio Cárdenas is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and was Colombia's finance minister from 2012 to 2018. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly Supplemental reading: "How to Avoid a Caudillo in Colombia (and Elsewhere)" by Mauricio Cárdenas (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-to-avoid-a-caudillo-in-colombia-and-elsewhere)

As a series of crises challenges Latin America's democracies, health systems, economies and more, Washington appears more engaged in finding solutions than it has been in recent years. But what are the Biden administration's priorities? And how is it engaging with countries like Brazil, Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador? Juan Gonzalez, President Biden's top aide on Latin America, joins the Americas Quarterly Podcast for a special episode. Guests: Juan Gonzalez is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief Supplemental Reading: "The Silent Partner," by Brian Winter (https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/materia/the-silent-partner/)

Change is in the air in Chile, with presidential and congressional campaigns heating up just as a constitutional convention gets to work rethinking the country's political system. What can we expect from the November general election? And do the candidates promise radical change – or gradual reform? Adolfo Ibáñez University's Isabel Aninat joins this week's podcast from Santiago. Guests: -Isabel Aninat is the dead of the law school at Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez and director of the Chilean Society for Public Policy -Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief Supplemental Reading: "Meet the Candidates: Chile" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-chile/) "Today's Young Leftists Care More About Chile than Cuba" by Oliver Stuenkel (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/todays-young-leftists-care-more-about-chile-than-cuba/)

Negotiations between Venezuela's dictatorship and opposition leaders are set to begin in Mexico - the latest in a long series of such talks. Is this time different? What opportunities really exist for progress? Is the opposition in a position to seize them? Political scientist Maryhen Jiménez Morales joins the podcast to discuss what's really at stake. Guests: - Maryhen Jiménez Morales is a postdoctoral research associate at the Latin American Center at the University of Oxford. - Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief. Supplemental reading: "Venezuela's Negotiations Won't Get Rid of Maduro. So What's Next?" by Maryhen Jiménez Morales. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/what-venezuelas-negotiations-wont-change/)

On Aug. 1, Mexico will hold its first national referendum, understood by many as a vote on whether to put past presidents on trial. Some have questioned the need for such a referendum and the messages it sends. But despite calling for the vote, the president “wants the referendum to fail,” says political analyst Denise Dresser, who spoke about the president's motivations for the referendum and the problems – from COVID to crime – it may distract from. Guests: - Denise Dresser is a political analyst, writer, activist and professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México. - Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief. Supplemental reading: "Mexico's Farcical Referendum," by Denise Dresser. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/mexicos-farcical-referendum/)

Over a month after Peru's presidential runoff election, Pedro Castillo is expected to be officially confirmed as the country's president-elect in the coming days, just in time to take office on July 28. In recent weeks, the former teacher and union leader has sent mixed signals about the kind of government he'll lead, some of which have encouraged investors and critics. Law professor and journalist Andrés Calderón joins AQ's Brendan O'Boyle to discuss what we've learned about Castillo and what he can expect to face early in his term. Guests: - Andrés Calderón is chair of the academic law department at the Universidad del Pacifico and is a columnist at El Comercio. - Brendan O'Boyle is Americas Quarterly's senior editor. Supplemental Reading: "What to Expect from Pedro Castillo" by Andrea Moncada. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/what-to-expect-from-pedro-castillo/) "The “Shadowy Figure” Behind Peru's Likely Next President" by Brendan O'Boyle. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-shadowy-figure-behind-perus-likely-next-president/)

A congressional inquiry, a slow vaccine rollout and renewed threat of impeachment have put Jair Bolsonaro under intense pressure. But Brazil's president could still rebound thanks to support in Congress and a potential economic recovery, says Patrícia Campos Mello. The acclaimed journalist says Bolsonaro's fate will hinge on complicated set of factors, including the performance of his likely 2022 election opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Guests: - Patrícia Campos Mello is an award-winning reporter and columnist at leading Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Bolsonaro's Turmoil Could Be the Amazon's Gain," by Oliver Stuenkel. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/bolsonaros-turmoil-could-be-the-amazons-gain/)

Illegal and unregulated economies are helping drive a spike in deforestation of the Amazon. Is an economic model possible that keeps the forest standing and provides sustainable opportunities for locals? That's the question AQ poses in its latest special report, and it's the topic of this new conversation between Editor-in-chief Brian Winter, Managing Editor Cecilia Tornaghi, and special guest Denis Minev, a CEO and investor from Manaus, Brazil. Guests: - Denis Minev is the CEO of Bemol and an angel investor in sustainable Amazon projects. -Cecilia Tornaghi is the managing editor of Americas Quarterly. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "The Case for Sustainable Development in the Amazon" a special report. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-case-for-sustainable-development-in-the-amazon/) "The Amazon's Big Cities Need Green Jobs Too. It's a Challenge" by Monica Prestes. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-amazons-big-cities-need-green-jobs-too-its-a-challenge/)

The results of Chile's constitutional convention election shook markets and left many wondering what it all meant for the country just as a presidential campaign begins to heat up. Many are hopeful, while others, like this week's guest, Patricio Navia, have concerns. The political scientist joins AQ's Brian Winter to discuss possible pitfalls of the new constitution, and why he is still optimistic about Chile's long-term future. Guests: - Patricio Navia is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly, professor of liberal studies at NYU and professor of political science at Diego Portales University in Chile. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Chile’s Big Gamble Just Got Riskier" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-big-gamble-just-got-riskier/) "Chile’s Riots: Frustration at the Gate of the Promised Land" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-riots-frustration-at-the-gate-of-the-promised-land/) "Trapped: What If Chile Ends Up Like Argentina?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/trapped-what-if-chile-ends-up-like-argentina/)

Kids in Latin America have lost an average of 158 days of face-to-face schooling, with more students out of the classroom than any other region in the world. In Argentina, the debate over when to send kids back to school has gone all the way to the Supreme Court, further polarizing a country reeling from a second wave and the worst inflation in 18 months. Economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati joins the podcast to discuss what’s at stake and give an update on politics and the economy in an election year. Guests: - Eduardo Levy Yeyati is the dean of the School of Government of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Back to the 1960s? Education May Be Latin America’s Most Lasting Scar from COVID-19" by Nora Lustig, Guido Neidhöfer and Mariano Tommasi. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/back-to-the-1960s-education-may-be-latin-americas-most-lasting-scar-from-covid-19/) "Changing Argentina’s Inertia: Is it Possible?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/changing-argentinas-inertia-is-it-possible/)

Cuba’s political regime took a step into unknown territory on April 16, when Raúl Castro announced he was stepping down as head of the ruling party. The change comes as the government faces headwinds from an economic crisis worsened by the pandemic, an artist-led protest movement, and a new administration in the U.S. But how much will things really change? Political scientist Javier Corrales joins the AQ Podcast to look ahead at what’s to come. Guests: - Javier Corrales is a professor of political science at Amherst College and a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Cuba’s Racial Reckoning, and What It Means for Biden" by Javier Corrales. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/cubas-racial-reckoning-and-what-it-means-for-biden/)

What’s driving an outbreak of violence on Venezuela’s border with Colombia? What does it say about Nicolás Maduro, who appears stronger than he was six months ago despite a worrying second wave and few vaccines in sight? The International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson joins the AQ Podcast from Caracas to weigh in on the complex panorama. Guests: - Phil Gunson is the Caracas-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

On April 11, Peruvians will head to the polls to elect their fifth president in less than four years. An unpopular, crowded field of candidates adds to the election’s unpredictability. Could the country’s unstable politics finally catch up to its long-resilient economy? Peruvian political analyst Andrea Moncada joins AQ’s Brian Winter to preview the vote – and the risks it entails. Guests: - Andrea Moncada is a political analyst and coordinator of the opinion section of El Comercio. She also teaches politics and international relations at ESAN University in Lima. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Meet the Candidates: Peru" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-peru/)

A surge in migrants at the US-Mexico border has become the first big test for President Joe Biden's migration policy. It's also giving new urgency to a $4 billion aid package that he has proposed to tackle the root causes of migration from Central America. But just "throwing money at problems does not solve them," says former Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís, citing problems on the ground such as corruption and democratic backsliding. On this week's episode of the AQ Podcast, Solís offers his ideas on how Washington can work with regional leaders and ensure efforts don't come up short. Guests: - President Luis Guillermo Solís is a former president of Costa Rica and the interim director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Can More U.S. Money Really Help Central America’s Northern Triangle?" By Luis Guillermo Solís (https://americasquarterly.org/article/can-more-u-s-money-really-help-central-americas-northern-triangle/) "It’s Not Just El Salvador. Democracies Are Weakening Across Central America." By Patricio Navia and Lucas Perelló (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-bigger-reason-to-worry-about-nayib-bukele-and-el-salvador/) "The Pandemic’s Big Winner? Organized Crime" an AQ special report (https://americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-pandemics-big-winner-transnational-crime/)

In the year since President Nayib Bukele marched soldiers into El Salvador’s legislative assembly, his critics say the leader’s threat to democracy has only grown. Now, as legislative elections on Feb. 28 promise Bukele a long-awaited majority, there are fears about what that could mean for checks and balances. In the latest episode of the AQ Podcast, guest host Brendan O’Boyle speaks to lawyer and researcher Claudia Umaña about the election’s stakes, Bukele’s resilient support, and the implications of a new administration in Washington. Guests: -Claudia Umaña is vice president of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES) -Brendan O’Boyle is senior editor of Americas Quarterly Supplemental Reading: "Surprise: El Salvador’s Anti-Corruption Commission Is Alive. But Can It Succeed?" by Noah Bullock and Chuck Call (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/surprise-el-salvadors-anti-corruption-commission-is-alive-but-can-it-succeed/) "Behind Nayib Bukele’s 'Shocking' Turn" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-nayib-bukeles-shocking-turn/) "Q&A: Why El Salvador’s Crisis Is Different – and Worrying" by Brian Winter (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/qa-why-el-salvadors-crisis-is-different-and-worrying/)

Colombia reported some good news in 2020: The country’s homicide rate was its lowest in nearly five decades. But continued violence in rural communities – and a pandemic that is emboldening organized crime – has darkened the mood for many. Veteran foreign correspondent John Otis joins the podcast from Bogotá to break down what’s happening in the countryside and the implications for President Duque – and the coming contest to name his successor. Guests: - John Otis reports from Bogotá for NPR and The Wall Street Journal and is a consultant for the Committee to Protect Journalists. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "School’s Out in Most of Latin America. Gangs Are Thrilled." by John Otis (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/schools-out-in-latin-america-gangs-are-thrilled/) "The Urgent Need to Reform Colombia’s Security Policies" by Juan Pappier (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-urgent-need-to-reform-colombias-security-policies/)

There are 16 candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election scheduled for Feb. 7, but polls suggest voters aren’t too excited about any of them. Whoever they settle on will have to work overtime to manage a country battered by a pandemic and a fiscal crisis. Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado joins the podcast to assess the country’s outlook and the leading presidential candidates, including a protégé of Former President Rafael Correa, the “incumbent” candidate who’s never been president, and the “outsider” who could surprise everyone. Guests: - Sebastián Hurtado is the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Meet the Candidates: Ecuador" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-ecuador/) "Who Is Andrés Arauz, Rafael Correa’s Pick to Lead Ecuador?" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://americasquarterly.org/article/andres-arauz-correa-proxy-or-new-leadership-for-ecuador/)

After a year like 2020, no one can confidently predict what the next 12 months will bring Latin America. What's clear, however, is that 2021 may be as transformative for the region as 2020 - for better or worse. The Council on Foreign Relation's Shannon O'Neil joins AQ's Brian Winter to preview the developments to watch in the new year, including the challenges of vaccine distribution, the questions looming over this year's critical elections, and the potential for collaboration with a new administration in Washington. Guests: -Shannon O’Neil is vice president and senior fellow for Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "A Less Apocalyptic Case for Latin America," by Brian Winter (https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-less-apocalyptic-case-for-latin-america/)

When Luis Arce swore in as Bolivia's president a month ago, he confronted a dizzying host of challenges: a public health emergency, a polarized electorate, and an economy crippled by the pandemic. But Arce's first weeks in office have left many cautiously optimistic, including journalist Raúl Peñaranda, who sees the emergence of a "minimalistic" government that's less vengeful than he expected. On this week's podcast, Peñaranda discusses Arce's first month, the return of Evo Morales, the encouraging judicial reforms on the horizon, and the challenges of vaccine distribution and getting kids back in school. Guests: -Raúl Peñaranda is a Bolivian journalist and director of the news portal Brújula Digital. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Will Luis Arce Rebuild Bolivia’s Broken Judiciary?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-luis-arce-rebuild-bolivias-broken-judiciary/)

The arrest – and return – of General Salvador Cienfuegos by U.S. authorities were both surprising developments in what has already turned out to be an unpredictable U.S.-Mexico relationship under Presidents Donald Trump and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But a “reevaluation of the Mexican approach” is likely in store when the Joe Biden administration takes over, says the Wilson Center’s Duncan Wood. Guests: -Duncan Wood is director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Latin America’s Militaries Are Back. What Does it Mean?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/new-aq-latin-americas-militaries-are-back-what-does-it-mean/)

Joe Biden - not Donald Trump - will be the next U.S. president. What does that mean for Trump's biggest fan in South America, Jair Bolsonaro? How might a Biden victory change Brazil's relationship with China? AQ columnist Oliver Stuenkel joins editor-in-chief Brian Winter to break down what life after Trump could really mean for the Brazilian president and his base. Guests: -Oliver Stuenkel is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly and teaches international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Why a Trump Defeat Would Be a Disaster for Bolsonaro" by Oliver Stuenkel (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-a-trump-defeat-would-be-a-disaster-for-bolsonaro/) "Joe Biden Answers 10 Questions on Latin America" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/updated-2020-candidates-answer-10-questions-on-latin-america/)

Chileans voted overwhelmingly to embark on what will be a long, expensive and imperfect journey to a new constitution. Despite the challenges, there's plenty of reason for optimism, says author and journalist Paula Schmidt. AQ's Brian Winter spoke with Schmidt about what we can expect next, the new constitution's potential to help close Chile's gender gap, and the marginalized community that Schmidt fears is being left out of the process. Guests: -Paula Schmidt is a journalist, a columnist in the digital newspaper El Líbero, and a professor at Chile’s Universidad de Los Andes. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "The Politics of Chile’s New Constitution" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-politics-of-chiles-new-constitution/)

Like his presidency in general, Donald Trump’s relationship with Latin America has not been without surprises. Among them: his unexpectedly close relationship with some of the region’s key leaders. But how have US-Latin America relations really changed under Trump – and where might they be headed if Trump surprises again and wins reelection? Juan Cruz, a former special advisor to the president, gave AQ’s Brian Winter an insider’s view on Trump’s approach to the region. Guests: - Juan Cruz is a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and the former point person on Latin America at the National Security Council under President Trump. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly Supplemental Listening: "AQ Podcast: What a Biden Presidency Would Mean for Latin America" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-what-a-biden-presidency-would-mean-for-latin-america/)

The early days of the pandemic saw Argentines rally around their new president, Alberto Fernández. But “those days are over,” says pollster Alejandro Catterberg, who points to a resurgence in polarization as COVID cases spread and the economy sinks deeper into recession. That’s bad news for the half of the country that wants to move past the divisive politics of former Presidents Mauricio Macri and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, said Catterberg, who spoke to AQ’s Brian Winter from Buenos Aires. Guests: - Alejandro Catterberg is founder and director of Poliarquía Consultores, an Argentine polling firm. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Background Reading: "After the Default: Argentina’s Unsustainable '20/80' Economy" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/after-the-default-argentinas-unsustainable-20-80-economy/)

Amid a pandemic and ongoing food shortages, politics isn't exactly the top priority for many Venezuelans. But fresh divisions within the country's opposition are likely to have significant repercussions on how the coalition engages with the Nicolas Maduro regime. On this week's podcast, AQ's Brian Winter spoke to the Washington Post's Ana Vanessa Herrero about the opposition's changing dynamics and diverging plans. Guests: - Ana Vanessa Herrero is a correspondent for the Washington Post based in Caracas, Venezuela. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.